National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for outage scenario probabilities

  1. Outage probability at finite SNR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akçaba, Cemal

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis, we present a technique to reduce the outage probability of a single user multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel when a sub-optimal transceiver architecture is used. We show that in slow-fading ...

  2. Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty Ioanna Ioannou, Charalambos D. Charalambous and Sergey Loyka Abstract--Outage probability of a class of block-fading (MIMO) channels outage probability defined as min (over the input distribution) -max (over the channel distribution class

  3. The Impact of Fading on the Outage Probability in Cognitive Radio Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    1 The Impact of Fading on the Outage Probability in Cognitive Radio Networks Yaobin Wen, Sergey Loyka and Abbas Yongacoglu Abstract--This paper analyzes the outage probability in cog- nitive radio possible scenarios are classified into three cases based on typical outage events. When the average number

  4. Cut-off Rate based Outage Probability Analysis of Frequency Hopping Mobile Radio under Jamming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yýlmaz, Özgür

    Cut-off Rate based Outage Probability Analysis of Frequency Hopping Mobile Radio under Jamming--This paper deals with the achievable spectral ef- ficiency and outage analysis of short burst frequency hopping (FH) mobile radios under heavy jamming scenarios. With the use of outage probability analysis

  5. Fluid Model of the Outage Probability in Sectored Wireless Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Fluid Model of the Outage Probability in Sectored Wireless Networks Jean-Marc Kelif France Telecom to derive the global outage probability and the spatial outage probability, which depends on the location the derivation of outage probabilities, capacity evaluation and then, the definition of Call Admission Control

  6. Rateless Code Based Multimedia Multicasting with Outage Probability Constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blostein, Steven D.

    Rateless Code Based Multimedia Multicasting with Outage Probability Constraints Wei Sheng, Wai encoding transmission (PET)-based packetization structure [1] combined with rateless codes. Outage is capable of minimizing the transmission cost while simultaneously guaranteeing outage prob- ability

  7. Conservative Estimates of Blocking and Outage Probabilities in CDMA Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bonald, Thomas

    Conservative Estimates of Blocking and Outage Probabilities in CDMA Networks T. Bonald, A. Prouti`ere 1 France Telecom, Division R&D, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France Abstract The outage probability is a key the blocking probability. The blocking and outage probabilities do not have closed-form expressions

  8. Spatial Outage Probability Formula for CDMA Jean-Marc Kelif

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Spatial Outage Probability Formula for CDMA Networks Jean-Marc Kelif France Telecom R&D Issy networks called the fluid model and we derive from this model analytical formulas for interference, outage probability, and spatial outage probability. The key idea of the fluid model is to consider the discrete base

  9. Asymptotic Analysis of Outage Probability in Cognitive Radio Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Asymptotic Analysis of Outage Probability in Cognitive Radio Networks Yaobin Wen, Sergey Loyka but not the outage probability itself. Unlike the cumulant-based analysis, our approach provides a guaranteed level. In particular, we demonstrate that there is a critical transition point below which the outage probability

  10. Spatial Outage Probability for Cellular Networks Jean-Marc Kelif

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Spatial Outage Probability for Cellular Networks Jean-Marc Kelif France Telecom R&D Issy networks called the fluid model and we derive from this model analytical formulas for interference, outage probability, and spatial outage probability. The key idea of the fluid model is to consider the discrete base

  11. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 1 Calculating Outage Probability of Block Fading Channels Based on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yýlmaz, Özgür

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 1 Calculating Outage Probability channels present a realistic model in many communication scenarios. We propose a method by which the outage generating functions helps obtain outage probabilities in various cases such as wideband noise jamming

  12. Analysis and Mitigation of Tropospheric Effects on Ka Band Satellite Signals and Estimation of Ergodic Capacity and Outage Probability for Terrestrial Links

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Enserink, Scott Warren

    2012-01-01

    of Outage Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii OutageResults Using the LLN Outage Probability

  13. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 10, OCTOBER 2012 3561 Outage Probability and Outage-Based Robust

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sung, Youngchul

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 11, NO. 10, OCTOBER 2012 3561 Outage Probability and Outage-Based Robust Beamforming for MIMO Interference Channels with Imperfect Channel State Information, and H. Vincent Poor Fellow, IEEE Abstract--In this paper, the outage probability and outage- based beam

  14. IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 11, NO. 7, JULY 2007 589 Outage Probability of Selection Cooperation in the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adve, Raviraj

    IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 11, NO. 7, JULY 2007 589 Outage Probability of Selection (SNR) regimes. We approximate the outage probability of selection cooperation for all SNR levels approximations for practical values of outage probability. Index Terms-- Outage probability, cooperative

  15. Impact of Topology and Shadowing on the Outage Probability of Cellular Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Impact of Topology and Shadowing on the Outage Probability of Cellular Networks Jean-Marc Kelif--This paper proposes an analytical study of the shadowing impact on the outage probability in cellular radio in the outage probability. From f, we are able to derive the outage probability of a mobile station (MS

  16. SUBMITTED TO IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 1 Outage Probability for Diversity Combining

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evans, Brian L.

    SUBMITTED TO IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 1 Outage Probability for Diversity of outage probability in the low-outage regime. The contributions of this paper are (1) derivation of closed, selection and post-detection combining; (2) comparison of the relative outage performance

  17. Outage Probability of the Gaussian Free Space Optical Channel with Pulse-Position Modulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

    Outage Probability of the Gaussian Free Space Optical Channel with Pulse-Position Modulation Nick adopt a quasi-static block fading model and study the outage probability of the channel under gains are possible by using power allocation techniques to minimise the outage probability. I

  18. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 58, NO. 11, NOVEMBER 2012 6825 Outage Probability Under Channel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 58, NO. 11, NOVEMBER 2012 6825 Outage Probability Abstract--Outage probability and capacity of a class of block- fading MIMO channels are considered under distributions. Compound outage probability defined as min (over the transmitted signal distribution) -max (over

  19. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 57, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2009 319 Outage Probability of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhashyam, Srikrishna

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 57, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2009 319 Outage Probability on the outage probability of multiple-input single-output (MISO) fading channels. Channel state information. With perfect CSIR, under a short-term power con- straint, we determine: (a) the outage probability

  20. Reduced-Outage-Probability Algorithms for Cross-Layer Call Admission Control in CDMA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blostein, Steven D.

    1 Reduced-Outage-Probability Algorithms for Cross-Layer Call Admission Control in CDMA Beamforming, increases outage probability in the physical layer. In this paper, we investigate the mitigation of the outage problem in the context of cross-layer performance, and propose CAC algorithms for code

  1. Outage Probability for Free-Space Optical Systems Over Slow Fading Channels With Pointing Errors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hranilovic, Steve

    Outage Probability for Free-Space Optical Systems Over Slow Fading Channels With Pointing Errors, Canada. Email: farid@grads.ece.mcmaster.ca, hranilovic@mcmaster.ca Abstract-- We investigate the outage errors. An expression for the outage probability is derived and we show that optimizing the transmit- ted

  2. Outage Probability in a Multi-Cellular Network using Alamouti Scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Outage Probability in a Multi-Cellular Network using Alamouti Scheme Dorra Ben Cheikh , Jean to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) or equivalently the outage probability in flat Rayleigh fading. The system power from the interfering base stations. In the first case, a closed- form expression for the outage

  3. Analysis and Computation of the Outage Probability of Discrete-Input Block-Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

    Analysis and Computation of the Outage Probability of Discrete-Input Block-Fading Channels Khoa D IS ELIGIBLE FOR THE STUDENT PAPER AWARD. In this paper, we propose a tight lower bound to the outage is not supported by a particular channel realization [1], [2]. This probability is named the information outage

  4. On the Impact of Mobility on Outage Probability in Cellular Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    On the Impact of Mobility on Outage Probability in Cellular Networks Jean-Marc Kelif France Telecom an analytical study of the mobility in cellular networks and its impact on quality of service and outage power. It allows us to analyze users mobility and to derive expressions of the outage probability. We

  5. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 62, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2014 699 Outage Probability in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durrani, Salman

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 62, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2014 699 Outage Probability, IEEE, and Xiangyun Zhou, Member, IEEE Abstract--This paper analyzes the outage performance in finite the outage probability at any arbitrary location of an arbitrarily-shaped finite wireless network: (i

  6. Outage Probability of Amplify-and-Forward Opportunistic Relaying with Multiple Interferers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Jae Hong

    Outage Probability of Amplify-and-Forward Opportunistic Relaying with Multiple Interferers over channels. We derive the closed-form expression of the outage probability for the AF opportunistic relaying derive the analytical results. Also, in [9], the authors investigate the outage behavior of the dual

  7. Outage Probability for Joint Processing Coordinated Multi-Point (JP-CoMP) Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Outage Probability for Joint Processing Coordinated Multi-Point (JP-CoMP) Performance Analysis Seminar 09 Mar. 2011 M. Coupechoux (TPT) Outage Prob. for JP-CoMP 09 Mar. 2011 1 / 48 #12;LTE and LTE Nets CoMP Figure: Evolution of the 3GPP Standards. M. Coupechoux (TPT) Outage Prob. for JP-CoMP 09 Mar

  8. Information Outage Probability of Orthogonal Space-Time Block Codes over Hoyt Distributed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rontogiannis, Athanasios A.

    Information Outage Probability of Orthogonal Space-Time Block Codes over Hoyt Distributed Fading,tronto,mathio} @space.noa.gr Abstract- In this paper the information outage probabil- ity (IOP) of orthogonal space telecommunications applications. For instance, in [4] this model has been used in outage analysis of cellular mobile

  9. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 10, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2011 407 Outage Probability and Optimum Power Allocation for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Il-Min

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 10, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2011 407 Outage Probability-duplex mode. For this system, we first derive a tight lower bound of outage probability, which is very close to the exact outage probability in the whole signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) range irrespective of the values

  10. 2120 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 59, NO. 5, JUNE 2010 Outage Probability of Multiuser Relay Networks in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elkashlan, Maged

    2120 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 59, NO. 5, JUNE 2010 Outage Probability and exact analysis is conducted to analyze the outage probability of MRNs under dissimilar Nakagami-m fading conditions. More specifically, we derive new closed-form expressions for the outage probability and the prob

  11. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 9, NO. 3, MARCH 2010 1139 Outage Probability of Multi-Hop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Il-Min

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 9, NO. 3, MARCH 2010 1139 Outage Probability--The outage probability of multi-hop amplify-and- forward relay systems with multiple relays is analyzed. Previ- ously, the outage probability of the two-hop system with multiple relays had been analyzed

  12. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 59, NO. 6, JUNE 2011 1731 On Outage Probability and Diversity-Multiplexing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 59, NO. 6, JUNE 2011 1731 On Outage Probability antennas and the relays have a single one. Compact closed-form expressions are obtained for the outage probability under i.i.d. and correlated Rayleigh-fading links. Low-outage approxima- tions are derived, which

  13. Outage Optimum Routing for Wireless Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garcia-Luna-Aceves, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Outage Optimum Routing for Wireless Networks B. Amiri, H. R.of wireless network outage probability in a fadinguse analytical calculation of outage probability in wireless

  14. Resource allocation for semi-elastic applications with outage constraints in cellular networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, C; Jordan, S

    2015-01-01

    Liang, and S. -G. H¨aggman, “Outage probability in GSM- GPRSand rate control with outage constraints in CDMA wirelessand P. Spasojevic, “Service outage based power and rate

  15. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 2, NO. 5, SEPTEMBER 2003 865 Exact Outage Probability for Equal Gain Combining With Cochannel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blostein, Steven D.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 2, NO. 5, SEPTEMBER 2003 865 Exact Outage- plementation complexity. We present a new outage performance analysis for EGC in mobile cellular radio systems of outage and 2) the existing method can lead to overly op- timistic outage performance prediction

  16. Outage Behavior of Selective Relaying Schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Woradit, Kampol

    Cooperative diversity techniques can improve the transmission rate and reliability of wireless networks. For systems employing such diversity techniques in slow-fading channels, outage probability and outage capacity are ...

  17. Outage Mutual Information of Space-Time MIMO Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Georgios

    Outage Mutual Information of Space-Time MIMO Channels Zhengdao Wang Georgios B. Giannakis Dept) leads to an increase in outage rate approximately equal to min(M, N), where M and N denote the number information outage probability. Finding this outage probability, as a function of R, is therefore equivalent

  18. Outage Capacity and Code Design for Dying Channels 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Meng

    2012-10-19

    channel length. First, we study the outage probability when the coding length K is fixed and uniform power allocation is assumed. Furthermore, we discuss the optimization over K and the power allocation vector PK to minimize the outage probability...

  19. Pictures, scenarios or probabilities: how should we portray dangerous climate change?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hulme, Mike

    1 Pictures, scenarios or probabilities: how should we portray dangerous climate change? Professor of East Anglia Prepared for the conference on "Perspectives on dangerous climate change", 28-29 June 2004 University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Version 16 June 2004 Abstract "Dangerous climate change" has entered

  20. Cross-Layer Design of Outage Optimum Routing Metric for Wireless Ad Hoc Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garcia-Luna-Aceves, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    PAPER Cross-layer design of outage optimum routing metricof wireless ad hoc network outage probability in a fadingJ. J. Garcia-Luna-Aceves Outage optimum routing for wireless

  1. GMI and Mismatched-CSI Outage Exponents in MIMO Block-Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    GMI and Mismatched-CSI Outage Exponents in MIMO Block-Fading Channels A. Taufiq Asyhari National then analyze the corresponding outage probability in the high signal-to-noise ratio regime. I. INTRODUCTION outage probability [1]. The majority of works on block-fading channels studied the outage probability

  2. Outage Analysis and Optimization for Multiaccess/V-BLAST Architecture over MIMO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varanasi, Mahesh K.

    Outage Analysis and Optimization for Multiaccess/V-BLAST Architecture over MIMO Rayleigh Fading the outage probabilities or upper bounds to outage probabilities, obtained with the optimum decoder feedback decoders. The derivations bring out the intimate connection between the outage probability

  3. Improving Outage Performance: Outage Optimization Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaPlatney, Jere J. [AREVA NP (United States)

    2006-07-01

    Planned outage performance is a key measure of how well an Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is operated. Performance during planned outages strongly affects virtually all of a plant's performance metrics. In recognition of this fact, NPP operators worldwide have and continue to focus on improving their outage performance. The process of improving outage performance is commonly referred to as 'Outage Optimization' in the industry. This paper starts with a summary of the principles of Outage Optimization. It then provides an overview of a process in common use in the USA and elsewhere to manage the improvement of planned outages. The program described is comprehensive in that it involves managing improvement in both the Preparation and Execution phases of outage management. (author)

  4. Outage Performance of the Primary Service in Spectrum Sharing Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yanikomeroglu, Halim

    Outage Performance of the Primary Service in Spectrum Sharing Networks Mohammad G. Khoshkholgh, we utilize stochastic geometry to analyze the primary service (PS) outage performance for spectrum) parameters and wireless environment on the PS outage probability are analyzed. We further obtain a closed

  5. OUTAGE MINIMIZATION BY OPPORTUNISTIC COOPERATION Deniz Gunduz, Elza Erkip

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Erkip, Elza

    OUTAGE MINIMIZATION BY OPPORTUNISTIC COOPERATION Deniz Gunduz, Elza Erkip Department of Electrical channel state information, and consider the system perfor- mance in terms of outage probability. We improves the outage performance significantly and performs very close to the half-duplex lower bound while

  6. Outage performance of an energy-efficient relaying protocol over Nakagami fading channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blostein, Steven D.

    Outage performance of an energy-efficient relaying protocol over Nakagami fading channels Viet only when the first-hop signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) is above the outage threshold, otherwise, relay transmission is stopped as it leads in that case to an outage. Closed-form expressions of CG outage probability

  7. The Role of Computational Outage in Dense Cloud-Based Centralized Radio Access Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valenti, Matthew C.

    The Role of Computational Outage in Dense Cloud-Based Centralized Radio Access Networks M. C Outage A computational outage occurs when the amount of computation required to decode the signal in a cloud group exceeds the available resources. The probability of computational outage is: From the system

  8. 1958 JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 28, NO. 13, JULY 1, 2010 Outage Statistics in a Waveplate Hinge Model of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biondini, Gino

    1958 JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 28, NO. 13, JULY 1, 2010 Outage Statistics sampling and the cross-entropy method. The outage probability is then obtained combining these results with the outage map method, allowing the fraction of bands with unac- ceptable outage probabilities

  9. Joint Impact of Pathloss, Shadowing and Fast Fading -An Outage Formula for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Joint Impact of Pathloss, Shadowing and Fast Fading - An Outage Formula for Wireless Networks of pathloss, shadowing and fast fading, we de- rive an easily computable outage probability formula´eseaux cellulaires. i #12;Contents Contents ii 1 Introduction 1 2 Outage Probabilities 2 2.1 Shadowing impact

  10. On Outage Performance of Spectrum-Sharing Communication over M-Block Fading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shihada, Basem

    On Outage Performance of Spectrum-Sharing Communication over M-Block Fading AbdulRahman Alabbasi to the primary and secondary users. We minimize the secondary user's targeted outage probability over the block-fading channels. To protect the primary user, a statistical constraint on its targeted outage probability

  11. PRE-PRINT, IEEE TRANS. INFORM. TH. Outage Theorems for MIMO Block Fading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varanasi, Mahesh K.

    PRE-PRINT, IEEE TRANS. INFORM. TH. Outage Theorems for MIMO Block Fading Channels Narayan Prasad probability (FEP) of space-time codes and the outage probability over general block fading multi-input multi are defined for a given rate and it is shown that average FEPs arbitrarily close to the respective outage

  12. Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Wei

    Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage Criterion is formulated as the minimization of the outage probability subject to the transmit power constraint beamforming and power codebook sizes. We show that as the outage probability decreases, optimal joint design

  13. 1326 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 51, NO. 4, APRIL 2005 Outage Capacities and Optimal Power Allocation for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jindal, Nihar

    1326 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 51, NO. 4, APRIL 2005 Outage Capacities, and Andrea Goldsmith, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--We derive the outage capacity region of an -user fading multiple information (CSI). The outage capacity region is implicitly obtained by deriving the outage probability region

  14. Mitigating Macro-Cell Outage in LTE-Advanced Deployments Rajarajan Sivaraj

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenberg, Albert

    Mitigating Macro-Cell Outage in LTE-Advanced Deployments Rajarajan Sivaraj , Ioannis Broustis , N (eNB). Therefore, the network operator's response to outage scenarios needs to be fast and efficient, in order to minimize any degradation in the Quality of Service (QoS). In this paper, we propose an outage

  15. Outage Performance for Amplify-and-Forward Channels with an Unauthenticated Relay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swindlehurst, A. Lee

    Outage Performance for Amplify-and-Forward Channels with an Unauthenticated Relay Jing Huang and reliable message transmission via the secrecy outage probability (SOP) of the relay network. We first predictions of the preferred transmission policies from a secrecy outage perspective. I. INTRODUCTION

  16. Outage in a Cellular Network Overlaid with an Ad hoc Network: The Uplink Case

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yanikomeroglu, Halim

    Outage in a Cellular Network Overlaid with an Ad hoc Network: The Uplink Case Arshdeep S. Kahlon}@sce.carleton.ca Abstract--We analyze the uplink outage probability at the randomly, but not necessarily independently nor, large-scale power control, and the knowledge of the initial outages in the absence of the secondary

  17. Impact of the Secondary Network on the Outage Performance of the Primary Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yanikomeroglu, Halim

    Impact of the Secondary Network on the Outage Performance of the Primary Service in Spectrum-- In this paper, we utilize stochastic geometry to analyze the primary service outage performance for spectrum parameters as well as the wireless environment on the primary service outage probability are analyzed. We

  18. Benefits of Multiple Transmit Antennas in Secure Communication: A Secrecy Outage Viewpoint

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Xiangyun "Sean"

    Benefits of Multiple Transmit Antennas in Secure Communication: A Secrecy Outage Viewpoint Xi Zhang confusing the eavesdrop- per by delivering artificial noise. A recently developed secrecy outage formulation the security performance. We show that an arbitrarily low secrecy outage probability cannot be achieved

  19. Asymptotic Outage Analysis of General Motion-Invariant Ad Hoc Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haenggi, Martin

    Asymptotic Outage Analysis of General Motion-Invariant Ad Hoc Networks Riccardo Giacomelli Dept Dame, IN, USA E-mail: mhaenggi@nd.edu Abstract--The outage analysis of networks with randomly a homogeneous Poisson point process. In this paper, we show that in great generality, the outage probability

  20. IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING LETTERS, VOL. 14, NO. 6, JUNE 2007 377 Outage Analysis and Optimal Power Allocation for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Su, Weifeng

    IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING LETTERS, VOL. 14, NO. 6, JUNE 2007 377 Outage Analysis and Optimal Power. Ray Liu, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--In this letter, a novel approach for outage probability analysis on that approximation, an outage probability bound is derived which proves to be tight at high SNR. Based on the derived

  1. 3172 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 8, NO. 6, JUNE 2009 On Multicast Beamforming for Minimum Outage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sidiropoulos, Nikolaos D.

    Beamforming for Minimum Outage Vassilis Ntranos, Nicholas D. Sidiropoulos, and Leandros Tassiulas Abstract--The multicast beamforming problem is considered from the viewpoint of minimizing outage probability subject (locations) and variances (spreads). It is shown that minimizing outage probability subject to a transmit

  2. Shopping for outage management systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chou, Y.C.; Konneker, L.K.; Watkins, T.R.

    1995-12-31

    Customer service is becoming increasingly important to electric utilities. Outage management is an important part of customer service. Good outage management means quickly responding to outages and keeping customers informed about outages. Each outage equals lost customer satisfaction and lost revenue. Outage management is increasingly important because of new competition among utilities for customers, pressure from regulators, and internal pressure to cut costs. The market has several existing software products for outage management. How does a utility judge whether these products satisfy their specific needs? Technology is changing rapidly to support outage management. Which technology is proven and cost-effective? The purpose of this paper is to outline the procedure for evaluating outage management systems, and to discuss the key features to look for. It also gives our opinion of the features that represent state of the art. This paper will not discuss specific products or list vendors names.

  3. 4350 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 8, NO. 8, AUGUST 2009 Outage, Local Throughput, and Capacity of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haenggi, Martin

    4350 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 8, NO. 8, AUGUST 2009 Outage, Local Throughput, and Capacity of Random Wireless Networks Martin Haenggi, Senior Member, IEEE Abstract--Outage parameter, the so- called spatial contention, is defined. It measures the slope of the outage probability

  4. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 52, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2006 375 Outage Analysis of Coded Cooperation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nosratinia, Aria

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 52, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2006 375 Outage Analysis of Coded-based methods. This work develops expressions for outage probability of coded cooperation. In this work, each constraints. Outage expressions confirm that full diversity is achieved by coded cooperation. This shows

  5. Separating the Effect of Independent Interference Sources with Rayleigh Faded Signal Link: Outage Analysis and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kahlon, Arshdeep S; Periyalwar, Shalini; Yanikomeroglu, Halim

    2012-01-01

    We show that, for independent interfering sources and a signal link with exponentially distributed received power, the total probability of outage can be decomposed as a simple expression of the outages from the individual interfering sources. We give a mathematical proof of this result, and discuss some immediate implications, showing how it results in important simplifications to statistical outage analysis. We also discuss its application to two active topics of study: spectrum sharing, and sum of interference powers (e.g., lognormal) analysis.

  6. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services County Electric Power Assn http outages county org A N Electric Coop Virginia AEP Generating Company https www aepaccount com zipr...

  7. RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012 RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012 July 9, 2012 (0 Comments) The projectb filesystem had a hardware failure that...

  8. Cascading Power Outages Propagate Locally in an Influence Graph that is not the Actual Grid Topology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hines, Paul D H; Rezaei, Pooya

    2015-01-01

    In a cascading power transmission outage, component outages propagate non-locally; after one component outages, the next failure may be very distant, both topologically and geographically. As a result, simple models of topological contagion do not accurately represent the propagation of cascades in power systems. However, cascading power outages do follow patterns, some of which are useful in understanding and reducing blackout risk. This paper describes a method by which the data from many cascading failure simulations can be transformed into a graph-based model of influences that provides actionable information about the many ways that cascades propagate in a particular system. The resulting "influence graph" model is Markovian, since component outage probabilities depend only on the outages that occurred in the prior generation. To validate the model we compare the distribution of cascade sizes resulting from n-2 contingencies in a 2896 branch test case to cascade sizes in the influence graph. The two dist...

  9. Overview of Common Mode Outages in Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Awodele , Kehinde; Billinton, Roy; Dent, Chris; Eager, Dan; Hamoud, Gomaa; Jirutitijaroen, Panida; Kumbale, Murali; Mitra, Joydeep; Samaan, Nader A.; Schneider, Alex; Singh, Chanan

    2012-11-10

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Probability Applications for Common Mode Events (PACME) Task Force under the Reliability Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA) Subcommittee. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about dealing with common-mode outages in power systems reliability analysis. This effort involves reviewing published literature and presenting state-of-the-art research and practical applications in the area of common-mode outages. Evaluation of available outage statistics show that there is a definite need for collective effort from academia and industry to not only recommended procedures for data collection and monitoring but also to provide appropriate mathematical models to assess such events.

  10. 2304 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 55, NO. 5, MAY 2009 Service-Outage-Based Power and Rate Control for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franceschetti, Massimo

    2304 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 55, NO. 5, MAY 2009 Service-Outage-Based Power is considered. For a fixed basic rate r0, a service outage occurs when the instantaneous transmission rate falls to peak and average trans- mitter power constraints and a constraint on the service outage probability

  11. Internet Outages, the Eyewitness Accounts: Analysis of the Outages Mailing List

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sekar, Vyas

    Internet Outages, the Eyewitness Accounts: Analysis of the Outages Mailing List Ritwik Banerjee and outages is critical to the "health" of the Internet infrastructure. Unfortunately, our ability to analyze. In this paper, we leverage a somewhat unconventional dataset to analyze Internet reliability--the outages

  12. Congestion Analysis during Outage, Congestion Treatment and Outage Recovery for simple GPRS networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Firenze, Università degli Studi di

    Congestion Analysis during Outage, Congestion Treatment and Outage Recovery for simple GPRS overlap- ping. In particular, we consider that one of the two cells is affected by an outage and we some network resources become suddenly un- available due to malfunctions. The occurrence of an outage

  13. A framework and review of customer outage costs: Integration and analysis of electric utility outage cost surveys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lawton, Leora; Sullivan, Michael; Van Liere, Kent; Katz, Aaron; Eto, Joseph

    2003-11-01

    A clear understanding of the monetary value that customers place on reliability and the factors that give rise to higher and lower values is an essential tool in determining investment in the grid. The recent National Transmission Grid Study recognizes the need for this information as one of growing importance for both public and private decision makers. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has undertaken this study, as a first step toward addressing the current absence of consistent data needed to support better estimates of the economic value of electricity reliability. Twenty-four studies, conducted by eight electric utilities between 1989 and 2002 representing residential and commercial/industrial (small, medium and large) customer groups, were chosen for analysis. The studies cover virtually all of the Southeast, most of the western United States, including California, rural Washington and Oregon, and the Midwest south and east of Chicago. All variables were standardized to a consistent metric and dollar amounts were adjusted to the 2002 CPI. The data were then incorporated into a meta-database in which each outage scenario (e.g., the lost of electric service for one hour on a weekday summer afternoon) is treated as an independent case or record both to permit comparisons between outage characteristics and to increase the statistical power of analysis results. Unadjusted average outage costs and Tobit models that estimate customer damage functions are presented. The customer damage functions express customer outage costs for a given outage scenario and customer class as a function of location, time of day, consumption, and business type. One can use the damage functions to calculate outage costs for specific customer types. For example, using the customer damage functions, the cost experienced by an ''average'' customer resulting from a 1 hour summer afternoon outage is estimated to be approximately $3 for a residential customer, $1,200 for small-medium commercial and industrial customer, and $82,000 for large commercial and industrial customer. Future work to improve the quality and coverage of information on the value of electricity reliability to customers is described.

  14. Outage Constrained Secrecy Rate Maximization Using Cooperative Jamming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luo, Shuangyu; Petropulu, Athina

    2012-01-01

    We consider a Gaussian MISO wiretap channel, where a multi-antenna source communicates with a single-antenna destination in the presence of a single-antenna eavesdropper. The communication is assisted by multi-antenna helpers that act as jammers to the eavesdropper. Each helper independently transmits noise which lies in the null space of the channel to the destination, thus creates no interference to the destination. Under the assumption that there is eavesdropper channel uncertainty, we derive the optimal covariance matrix for the source signal so that the secrecy rate is maximized subject to probability of outage and power constraints. Assuming that the eavesdropper channels follow zero-mean Gaussian model with known covariances, we derive the outage probability in a closed form. Simulation results in support of the analysis are provided.

  15. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hase, Kevin R.; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather; Boyer, Brian D.

    2012-07-10

    Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

  16. ADMIN SYSTEMS OUTAGE NOTIFICATION PROCESS (2/13/07 Marcia)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kunkle, Tom

    l .(, '- ADMIN SYSTEMS OUTAGE NOTIFICATION PROCESS (2/13/07 Marcia) STANDARD OUTAGE TIMES (NO of month rd ADMIN SERVERS (Wando/Cooper): Midnight - 8PM Sunday of month SCHEDULED OUTAGES DURING NON-STANDARD OUTAGE TIMES: Requestor sends outage request to "ITOutageRequest" for approval at least 5 business days

  17. Predictive Compensation for Communication Outages in Networked Control Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Predictive Compensation for Communication Outages in Networked Control Systems Erik Henriksson Henrik Sandberg Karl Henrik Johansson Abstract-- A predictive outage compensator co time instance, the predictive outage compensator suggests a replacement command based on the history

  18. A framework and review of customer outage costs: Integration and analysis of electric utility outage cost surveys

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawton, Leora; Sullivan, Michael; Van Liere, Kent; Katz, Aaron; Eto, Joseph

    2003-01-01

    M. and D. Keane (1995). Outage Cost Estimation Guidebook.Figure 5-1. Predicted Outage Cost By Region and DurationFigure 5-2. Predicted Outage Cost By Region and Duration

  19. GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF AN ADVANCED OUTAGE CONTROL CENTER TO IMPROVE OUTAGE COORDINATION, PROBLEM RESOLUTION, AND OUTAGE RISK MANAGEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Germain, Shawn St; Farris, Ronald; Whaley, April M; Medema, Heather; Gertman, David

    2014-09-01

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. Managing NPP outages is a complex and difficult task due to the large number of maintenance and repair activities that are accomplished in a short period of time. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information, and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status, and periodic briefings in the OCC. It is a difficult task to maintain current the information related to outage progress and discovered conditions. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across, and out of the OCC. The use of these technologies will allow information to be shared electronically, providing greater amounts of real-time information to the decision makers and allowing OCC coordinators to meet with supporting staff remotely. Passively monitoring status electronically through advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer-based procedures, and automated work packages will reduce the current reliance on manually reporting progress. The use of these technologies will also improve the knowledge capture and management capabilities of the organization. The purpose of this research is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an advanced outage control center (AOCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This technical report for industry implementation outlines methods and considerations for the establishment of an AOCC. This report provides a process for implementation of a change management plan, evaluation of current outage processes, the selection of technology, and guidance for the implementation of the selected technology. Methods are presented for both adoption of technologies within an existing OCC and for a complete OCC replacement, including human factors considerations for OCC design and setup.

  20. Managing turbine-generator outages by computer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reinhart, E.R. [Reinhart and Associates, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-09-01

    This article describes software being developed to address the need for computerized planning and documentation programs that can help manage outages. Downsized power-utility companies and the growing demand for independent, competitive engineering and maintenance services have created a need for a computer-assisted planning and technical-direction program for turbine-generator outages. To meet this need, a software tool is now under development that can run on a desktop or laptop personal computer to assist utility personnel and technical directors in outage planning. Total Outage Planning Software (TOPS), which runs on Windows, takes advantage of the mass data storage available with compact-disc technology by archiving the complete outage documentation on CD. Previous outage records can then be indexed, searched, and viewed on a computer with the click of a mouse. Critical-path schedules, parts lists, parts order tracking, work instructions and procedures, custom data sheets, and progress reports can be generated by computer on-site during an outage.

  1. Robust transmit beamforming design using outage probability specification 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Du, Huiqin

    2010-01-01

    Transmit beamforming (precoding) is a powerful technique for enhancing the channel capacity and reliability of multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) wireless systems. The optimum exploitation of the benefits provided ...

  2. On The Outage Capacity Distribution of Correlated Keyhole MIMO Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    On The Outage Capacity Distribution of Correlated Keyhole MIMO Channels G. Levin and S. Loyka for the instantaneous SNR and outage capacity distributions of a spatially correlated keyhole MIMO channel are given diversity channel with a single Tx (Rx) and multiple Rx (Tx) antennas. The outage capacity at low outage

  3. Reduced-Order Predictive Outage Compensators for Networked Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Reduced-Order Predictive Outage Compensators for Networked Systems Erik Henriksson Henrik Sandberg communication outage of several samples in situations when the radio environment is noisy and low transmission power is desirable. We propose a method to compensate for outages by introducing a predictive outage

  4. Characteristics and trends in a National Study of Consumer Outage Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawton, Leora; Eto, Joseph H.; Katz, Aaron; Sullivan, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Conference Lawton, Eto Katz & Sullivan Consumer Outage CostsDatabase of Customer Outage Costs. Forthcoming. Sullivan, M.and D. Keane. 1995. Outage Cost Estimation Guidebook.

  5. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-12-31

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance.

  6. Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen

    2011-03-01

    As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.

  7. Outage management and health physics issue, 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2007-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troy Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.

  8. Benchmark Report on Key Outage Attributes: An Analysis of Outage Improvement Opportunities and Priorities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Germain, Shawn St.; Farris, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Advanced Outage Control Center (AOCC), is a multi-year pilot project targeted at Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) outage improvement. The purpose of this pilot project is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an AOCC that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report documents the results of a benchmarking effort to evaluate the transferability of technologies demonstrated at Idaho National Laboratory and the primary pilot project partner, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. The initial assumption for this pilot project was that NPPs generally do not take advantage of advanced technology to support outage management activities. Several researchers involved in this pilot project have commercial NPP experience and believed that very little technology has been applied towards outage communication and collaboration. To verify that the technology options researched and demonstrated through this pilot project would in fact have broad application for the US commercial nuclear fleet, and to look for additional outage management best practices, LWRS program researchers visited several additional nuclear facilities.

  9. Power Outage 1.Stop serving food and beverages.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LESSON1 Power Outage 1.Stop serving food and beverages. Notify customers. 2.Do two things food. Emergency Readiness for Food Workers #12;LESSON1 Power Outage 5.Food being held cold: Discard

  10. Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 May 10, 2012 (0 Comments) Due to a scheduled maintenance for the License...

  11. Outage managment and health physics issue, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2008-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include: Outage optimization initiatives, by George B. Beam, AREVA NP, Inc.; New plant based on excellent track records, by Jim Scarola, Progress Energy; Meeting customer needs and providing environmental benefits, by Peter S. Hastings, Duke Energy; Plants with 3-D design, by Jack A. Bailey, Tennessee Valley Authority; and Highest quality with exceptional planning, by Jason A. Walls, Duke Energy. Industry innovation articles include: Integrated exposure reduction plan, by Ed Wolfe, Exelon; Performance-based radiation worker training, by Joe Giuffre and Timothy Vriezerma, American Electric Power.

  12. Collaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deussen, Oliver

    Collaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen Institute for Energy Technology Os to the demands found in complex industrial domains. We focus our discussion around the Outage Control Centre Nuclear Power Plants, Process industry, Outage Control Centers, High Reliability Organizations

  13. SERVICE OUTAGE BASED ADAPTIVE TRANSMISSION IN FADING CHANNELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yates, Roy

    SERVICE OUTAGE BASED ADAPTIVE TRANSMISSION IN FADING CHANNELS BY JIANGHONG LUO A dissertation OF THE DISSERTATION Service Outage Based Adaptive Transmission in Fading Channels by Jianghong Luo Dissertation Director: Prof. Roy Yates, Prof. Predrag Spasojevi´c The service outage based allocation problem explores

  14. Visualizing Sparse Internet Events: Network Outages and Route Changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    Visualizing Sparse Internet Events: Network Outages and Route Changes Lin Quan · John Heidemann. To understand and man- age network events such as outages, route instability, and spam campaigns, they must- namics of network outages such as January 2011 Egyptian change of government, and the March 2011 Japanese

  15. Mismatched CSI Outage Exponents of Block-Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mismatched CSI Outage Exponents of Block-Fading Channels A. Taufiq Asyhari Department variances at the transmitter and at the receiver to give the optimal outage exponents. We also demonstrate state information at the transmitter in terms of outage exponent. I. INTRODUCTION The block

  16. Poster Abstract: Towards Active Measurements of Edge Network Outages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    Poster Abstract: Towards Active Measurements of Edge Network Outages Lin Quan John Heidemann Yuri-to-end reachability is a fundamental service of the Internet. We study net- work outages caused by natural disasters [2,5], and political upheavals [8]. We propose a new approach to outage detection using active

  17. Multi-Keyhole MIMO Channels: Asymptotic Analysis of Outage Capacity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Multi-Keyhole MIMO Channels: Asymptotic Analysis of Outage Capacity George Levin and Sergey Loyka single-keyhole channels. The outage capacity distribution of both full-rank and rank-deficient multi channel, outage capacity, correlation. I. INTRODUCTION Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) channels have

  18. Outage and Capacity Analysis of Cellular CDMA With Admission Control

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chockalingam, A.

    Outage and Capacity Analysis of Cellular CDMA With Admission Control S. AnandÝ , A. Chockalingam. Ltd., Bangalore, INDIA Abstract-- We analyze the outage and capacity performance of an interference based admission control strategy in cellular CDMA systems. Most approaches to estimate the outage

  19. Does Beamforming achieve Outage Capacity with Direction Feedback?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jafar, Syed A.

    Does Beamforming achieve Outage Capacity with Direction Feedback? Sudhir Srinivasa and Syed Ali: syed@ece.uci.edu, sudhirs@uci.edu Email: sriram@ece.utexas.edu Abstract We explore the outage capacity of outage capacity for a quantized channel direction feedback system. The technique is used to establish

  20. A Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    A Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy USC/ISI Technical Report ISI outages during the October 2012 Hurricane Sandy. We assess net- work reliability by pinging a sample network outages, we see that the out- age rate in U.S. networks doubled when the hurricane made landfall

  1. Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Responding to Electrical Power Outages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Responding to Electrical Power Outages and Floods Bruce The Texas A&M University System Electrical power outages and floods can affect you and your residential power outages and flooding. System Components To properly respond to a disaster, homeowners need to know

  2. On Asymptotic Outage Capacity Distribution of Correlated MIMO Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    On Asymptotic Outage Capacity Distribution of Correlated MIMO Channels Georgy Levin* and Sergey condition for the asymptotic normality of MIMO channel outage capacity is considered. Some physical aspects, asymptotic capacity, correlation. I. INTRODUCTION Outage capacity is one of the major characteristics

  3. Towards the Efficient Design of Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dulmage, Jared

    2012-01-01

    OFDM Outage . . . . . . . . . . .Outage probability vs.vs. SNR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Outage

  4. Outage management and health physics issue, 2006

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2006-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: A design with experience for the U.S., by Michael J. Wallace, Constellation Generation Group; Hope to be among the first, by Randy Hutchinson, Entergy Nuclear; Plans to file COLs in 2008, by Garry Miller, Progress Energy; Evolution of ICRP's recommendations, by Lars-Erik Holm, ICRP; European network on education and training in radiological protection, by Michele Coeck, SCK-CEN, Belgium; Outage managment: an important tool for improving nuclear power plant performance, by Thomas Mazour and Jiri Mandula, IAEA, Austria; and Plant profile: Exploring new paths to excellence, by Anne Thomas, Exelon Nuclear.

  5. Outage management and health physics issue, 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2009-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include the following: Planning and scheduling to minimize refueling outage, by Pat McKenna, AmerenUE; Prioritizing safety, quality and schedule, by Tom Sharkey, Dominion; Benchmarking to high standards, by Margie Jepson, Energy Nuclear; Benchmarking against U.S. standards, by Magnox North, United Kingdom; Enabling suppliers for new build activity, by Marcus Harrington, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy; Identifying, cultivating and qualifying suppliers, by Thomas E. Silva, AREVA NP; Creating new U.S. jobs, by Francois Martineau, Areva NP. Industry innovation articles include: MSL Acoustic source load reduction, by Amir Shahkarami, Exelon Nuclear; Dual Methodology NDE of CRDM nozzles, by Michael Stark, Dominion Nuclear; and Electronic circuit board testing, by James Amundsen, FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company. The plant profile article is titled The future is now, by Julia Milstead, Progress Energy Service Company, LLC.

  6. Advanced Outage and Control Center: Strategies for Nuclear Plant Outage Work Status Capabilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gregory Weatherby

    2012-05-01

    The research effort is a part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a research and development program sponsored by the Department of Energy, performed in close collaboration with industry to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS Program serves to help the US nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The Outage Control Center (OCC) Pilot Project was directed at carrying out the applied research for development and pilot of technology designed to enhance safe outage and maintenance operations, improve human performance and reliability, increase overall operational efficiency, and improve plant status control. Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Unfortunately, many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. They depend heavily upon large teams of staff, multiple work and coordination locations, and manual administrative actions that require large amounts of paper. Previous work in human reliability analysis suggests that many repetitive tasks, including paper work tasks, may have a failure rate of 1.0E-3 or higher (Gertman, 1996). With between 10,000 and 45,000 subtasks being performed during an outage (Gomes, 1996), the opportunity for human error of some consequence is a realistic concern. Although a number of factors exist that can make these errors recoverable, reducing and effectively coordinating the sheer number of tasks to be performed, particularly those that are error prone, has the potential to enhance outage efficiency and safety. Additionally, outage management requires precise coordination of work groups that do not always share similar objectives. Outage managers are concerned with schedule and cost, union workers are concerned with performing work that is commensurate with their trade, and support functions (safety, quality assurance, and radiological controls, etc.) are concerned with performing the work within the plants controls and procedures. Approaches to outage management should be designed to increase the active participation of work groups and managers in making decisions that closed the gap between competing objectives and the potential for error and process inefficiency.

  7. How individual traces and interactive timelines could support outage execution - Toward an outage historian concept

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parfouru, S.; De-Beler, N. [EDF Recherche and Developpement, 6 quai Watier, 78400 Chatou (France)

    2012-07-01

    In the context of a project that is designing innovative ICT-based solutions for the organizational concept of outage management, we focus on the informational process of the OCR (Outage Control Room) underlying the execution of the outages. Informational process are based on structured and unstructured documents that have a key role in the collaborative processes and management of the outage. We especially track the structured and unstructured documents, electronically or not, from creation to sharing. Our analysis allows us to consider that the individual traces produced by an individual participant with a specific role could be multi-purpose and support sharing between participants without creating duplication of work. The ultimate goal is to be able to generate an outage historian, that is not just focused on highly structured information, which could be useful to improve the continuity of information between participants. We study the implementation of this approach through web technologies and social media tools to address this issue. We also investigate the issue of data access through interactive visualization timelines coupled with other modality's to assist users in the navigation and exploration of the proposed historian. (authors)

  8. Application of Standard Maintenance Windows in PHWR Outage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuming Jiang [Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company, Ltd. (China)

    2006-07-01

    The concept of Standard Maintenance Windows has been widely used in the planned outage of light water reactor in the world. However, due to the specific feature of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), it has not come to a consensus for the PHWR owners to adopt Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage aiming at the optimization of outage duration. Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company (TQNPC), with their experience gained in the previous outages and with reference to other PHWR power plants, has identified a set of Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage. It can be applied to similar PHWR plants and with a few windows that are specific to Qinshan Phase III NPP. The use of these Standard Maintenance Windows in planned outage has been proved to be effective in control shutdown nuclear safety, minimize the unavailability of safety system, improve the efficient utilization of outage duration, and improved the flexibility of outage schedule in the case of emergency issue, which forced the revision of outage schedule. It has also formed a solid foundation for benchmarking. The identification of Standard Maintenance Windows and its application will be discussed with relevant cases for the common improvement of outage duration. (author)

  9. Bounds on the outage-constrained capacity region of space-division multiple-access radio systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jin, Haipeng; Acampora, A

    2004-01-01

    Broadcast Channels - Part I: Outage Capacity,” IEEE Trans.Bounds on the Outage-Constrained Capacity Region of Spacethe capacity limit as an outage region rates contained

  10. Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary. 2. Report the outage, call. Campus-wide telephone communications will continue to operate during a power outage on standard phones. If emergency assistance is required, call UC Security on Extn 6111 and state "POWEr OUTAgE" or mobile 0800 823

  11. Outlook for Refinery Outages and Available Refinery Capacity...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of gasoline and distillate, and to include a more detailed consideration of the impact of unexpected outages on product supplies. This report reviews the potential...

  12. How Accurate are the Gaussian and Gamma Approximations to the Outage Capacity of MIMO Channels ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Øien, Geir E.

    How Accurate are the Gaussian and Gamma Approximations to the Outage Capacity of MIMO Channels MIMO capacity complementary cumulative distribution functions, or equivalently, the outage capacity distribution function (CDF) (also known as the outage capacity), or equivalently, the capacity complementary

  13. Plant maintenance and outage management issue, 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2005-01-15

    The focus of the January-February issue is on plant maintenance and outage managment. Major articles/reports in this issue include: Dawn of a new era, by Joe Colvin, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI); Plant profile: Beloyarsk NPP, Russia, by Nikolai Oshkanov, Beloyarsk NPP, Russia; Improving economic performance, by R. Spiegelberg-Planner, John De Mella, and Marius Condu, IAEA; A model for improving performance, by Pet Karns, MRO Software; ASME codes and standards, by Shannon Burke, ASME International; and, Refurbishment programs, by Craig S. Irish, Nuclear Logistics, Inc.

  14. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History ViewMayo, Maryland:NPIProtectio Program | OpenWisconsin:New York:PolicyTailEnergyOpenOutageMapURL

  15. Fermi 2: Independent safety assessment of refueling outage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arora, H.O. [Detroit Edison, MI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Industry experience and studies conducted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have shown that plants are susceptible to a variety of events that can challenge safety during shutdowns. While these events have neither posed nor indicated an undue risk to public health and safety, they do serve to underscore the importance of effective outage planning and control. The NUMARC 91-06 guidelines suggest that proper planning and execution of outage activities can reduce the likelihood and consequences of events, which ultimately enhances safety during shutdown. The Fermi 2, Independent Safety Engineering Group (ISEG) is charged with the independent safety review of the refueling outage plan and its implementation. The ISEG is responsible for performing a detailed and critical review of proposed outage plan prior to the start of the outage, maintaining surveillance of the adequacy and consistency of the {open_quotes}defense-in-depth{close_quotes} provided during the outage, reviewing the outage plan changes for potential vulnerabilities that could affect safety functions, and investigating selected events that emerge during the course of the outage.

  16. A stochastic model for the measurement of electricity outage costs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grosfeld-Nir, A.; Tishler, A. (Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel))

    1993-01-01

    The measurement of customer outage costs has recently become an important subject of research for electric utilities. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic model as the starting point in developing a market-based method for the evaluation of outage costs. Specifically, the model postulates that once an electricity outage occurs, all production activity stops. Full production is resumed once the electricity outage is over. This process repeats itself indefinitely. The business customer maximizes his expected discounted profits (the expected value of the firm), taking into account his limited ability to respond to repeated random electricity outages. The model is applied to 11 industrial branches in Israel. The estimates exhibit a large variation across branches. 34 refs., 3 tabs.

  17. Analysis of scrams and forced outages at boiling water reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Earle, R. T.; Sullivan, W. P.; Miller, K. R.; Schwegman, W. J.

    1980-07-01

    This report documents the results of a study of scrams and forced outages at General Electric Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) operating in the United States. This study was conducted for Sandia Laboratories under a Light Water Reactor Safety Program which it manages for the United States Department of Energy. Operating plant data were used to identify the causes of scrams and forced outages. Causes of scrams and forced outages have been summarized as a function of operating plant and plant age and also ranked according to the number of events per year, outage time per year, and outage time per event. From this ranking, identified potential improvement opportunities were evaluated to determine the associated benefits and impact on plant availability.

  18. Technology Integration Initiative In Support of Outage Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gregory Weatherby; David Gertman

    2012-07-01

    Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Often, command and control during outages is maintained in the outage control center where many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. This research reports on the use of advanced integrating software technologies and hand held mobile devices as a means by which to reduce cycle time, improve accuracy, and enhance transparency among outage team members. This paper reports on the first phase of research supported by the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program that is performed in close collaboration with industry to examine the introduction of newly available technology allowing for safe and efficient outage performance. It is thought that this research will result in: improved resource management among various plant stakeholder groups, reduced paper work, and enhanced overall situation awareness for the outage control center management team. A description of field data collection methods, including personnel interview data, success factors, end-user evaluation and integration of hand held devices in achieving an integrated design are also evaluated. Finally, the necessity of obtaining operations cooperation support in field studies and technology evaluation is acknowledged.

  19. Using Outage History to Exclude High-Risk Satellites from GBAS Corrections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    Using Outage History to Exclude High-Risk Satellites from GBAS Corrections Sam Pullen and Per Enge this assumption. A study of unscheduled GPS satellite outages from 1999 to present shows that, as expected, older experienced unscheduled outages are more likely to suffer additional unscheduled outages. Combining these two

  20. Service Outage Based Power and Rate Allocation for Parallel Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yates, Roy

    1 Service Outage Based Power and Rate Allocation for Parallel Fading Channels Jianghong Luo, Member, IEEE, Roy Yates, Member, IEEE, and Predrag Spasojevi´c, Member, IEEE Abstract-- The service outage of ergodic capacity and outage capacity for fading channels. A service outage occurs when the transmission

  1. Spectrum Sharing in Cognitive Radio Systems Under Outage Probablility Constraint 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cai, Pei Li

    2011-02-22

    is one, i.e., CR beamforming is optimal under PU outage constraints. Finally, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to provide a suboptimal solution to our MBIP problem by e ciently (in polynomial time) solving a particularly-constructed convex problem. v... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 f. Karush-Kuhn-Tucker Optimality Conditions . . . 18 III COGNITIVE SPECTRUM SHARING WITH OUTAGE PROB- ABILITY CONSTRAINT : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 20 A. System and Signal Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 B...

  2. Scenario Reduction and Scenario Tree Construction for Power Management Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    1 Scenario Reduction and Scenario Tree Construction for Power Management Problems Nicole Gr¨owe-Kuska, Holger Heitsch and Werner R¨omisch Abstract-- Portfolio and risk management problems of power utilities and corresponding probabilities to model the multivariate random data process (electrical load, stream flows

  3. Development of Methodologies for Technology Deployment for Advanced Outage Control Centers that Improve Outage Coordination, Problem Resolution and Outage Risk Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shawn St. Germain; Ronald Farris; Heather Medeman

    2013-09-01

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provides the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The long term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the U.S. will depend upon maintaining high capacity factors, avoiding nuclear safety issues and reducing operating costs. The slow progress in the construction on new nuclear power plants has placed in increased importance on maintaining the output of the current fleet of nuclear power plants. Recently expanded natural gas production has placed increased economic pressure on nuclear power plants due to lower cost competition. Until recently, power uprate projects had steadily increased the total output of the U.S. nuclear fleet. Errors made during power plant upgrade projects have now removed three nuclear power plants from the U.S. fleet and economic considerations have caused the permanent shutdown of a fourth plant. Additionally, several utilities have cancelled power uprate projects citing economic concerns. For the past several years net electrical generation from U.S. nuclear power plants has been declining. One of few remaining areas where significant improvements in plant capacity factors can be made is in minimizing the duration of refueling outages. Managing nuclear power plant outages is a complex and difficult task. Due to the large number of complex tasks and the uncertainty that accompanies them, outage durations routinely exceed the planned duration. The ability to complete an outage on or near schedule depends upon the performance of the outage management organization. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status and periodic briefings in the OCC. Much of the information displayed in OCCs is static and out of date requiring an evaluation to determine if it is still valid. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across and out of the OCC. Additionally, advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer based procedures and electronic work packages can be leveraged to improve the availability of real time status to outage managers.

  4. PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" #122 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy Technology/speech/2006/ramsay/etp_tokyo.pdf #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE G8

  5. Selected Findings from Scenario Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of resources (e.g. wind, solar PV, CCCT) when integrated into an existing power system. The System Capacity requirements 7 #12;Now, On To Scenario Comparisons and Observations Net System Cost Least Cost Strategies for 1B, 2B, 2C and 3 A 53 97 123 135 167 178 266 Net System Cost (Billions 2012 $) Probability Scenario 1

  6. SAMPLE RESULTS FROM MCU SOLIDS OUTAGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Oji, L.; Coleman, C.; Poirier, M.

    2014-09-22

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has received several solid and liquid samples from MCU in an effort to understand and recover from the system outage starting on April 6, 2014. SRNL concludes that the presence of solids in the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) is the likely root cause for the outage, based upon the following discoveries ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the scrub contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? An archived sample from Tank 49H taken last year was shown to contain a fine precipitate of sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 drain pipe from extraction contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium aluminosilicate ? A liquid sample from the SSFT was shown to have elevated levels of oxalate anion compared to the expected concentration in the feed Visual inspection of the SSFT indicated the presence of precipitated or transferred solids, which were likely also in the Salt Solution Receipt Tank (SSRT). The presence of the solids coupled with agitation performed to maintain feed temperature resulted in oxalate solids migration through the MCU system and caused hydraulic issues that resulted in unplanned phase carryover from the extraction into the scrub, and ultimately the strip contactors. Not only did this carryover result in the Strip Effluent (SE) being pushed out of waste acceptance specification, but it resulted in the deposition of solids into several of the contactors. At the same time, extensive deposits of aluminosilicates were found in the drain tube in the extraction contactor #1. However it is not known at this time how the aluminosilicate solids are related to the oxalate solids. The solids were successfully cleaned out of the MCU system. However, future consideration must be given to the exclusion of oxalate solids into the MCU system. There were 53 recommendations for improving operations recently identified. Some additional considerations or additional details are provided below as recommendations. ? From this point on, IC-Anions analyses of the DSSHT should be part of the monthly routine analysis in order to spot negative trends in the oxalate leaving the MCU system. Care must be taken to monitor the oxalate content to watch for sudden precipitation of oxalate salts in the system. ? Conduct a study to optimize the cleaning strategy at ARP-MCU through decreasing the concentration or entirely eliminating the oxalic acid. ? The contents of the SSFT should remain unagitated. Routine visual observation should be maintained to ensure there is not a large buildup of solids. As water with agitation provided sufficient removal of the solids in the feed tank, it should be considered as a good means for dissolving oxalate solids if they are found in the future. ? Conduct a study to improve prediction of oxalate solubility in salt batch feed materials. As titanium and mercury have been found in various solids in this report, evaluate if either element plays a role in oxalate solubility during processing. ? Salt batch characterization focuses primarily on characterization and testing of unaltered Tank 21H material; however, non-typical feeds are developed through cleaning, washing, and/or sump transfers. As these solutions are processed through MCU, they may precipitate solids or reduce performance. Salt batch characterization and testing should be expanded to encompass a broader range of feeds that may be processed through ARPMCU.

  7. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  8. Lassoing Line Outages in the Smart Power Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Hao

    2011-01-01

    Fast and accurate unveiling of power line outages is of paramount importance not only for preventing faults that may lead to blackouts, but also for routine monitoring and control tasks of the smart grid, including state estimation and optimal power flow. Existing approaches are either challenged by the \\emph{combinatorial complexity} issues involved, and are thus limited to identifying single- and double-line outages; or, they invoke less pragmatic assumptions such as \\emph{conditionally independent} phasor angle measurements available across the grid. Using only a subset of voltage phasor angle data, the present paper develops a near real-time algorithm for identifying multiple line outages at the affordable complexity of solving a quadratic program via block coordinate descent iterations. The novel approach relies on reformulating the DC linear power flow model as a \\emph{sparse} overcomplete expansion, and leveraging contemporary advances in compressive sampling and variable selection using the least-abso...

  9. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the...

  10. The detection, prevention and mitigation of cascading outages in the power system 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Hongbiao

    2009-05-15

    This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and develops new methods and new tools to help detect, prevent and mitigate the outages. Three effective solutions: a steady state control scheme, a transient...

  11. Obtaining statistics of cascading line outages spreading in an electric transmission network from standard utility data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dobson, Ian

    2015-01-01

    We show how to use standard transmission line outage historical data to obtain the network topology in such a way that cascades of line outages can be easily located on the network. Then we obtain statistics quantifying how cascading outages typically spread on the network. Processing real outage data is fundamental for understanding cascading and for evaluating the validity of the many different models and simulations that have been proposed for cascading in power networks.

  12. Outage Minimization for a Fading Wireless Link with Energy Harvesting Transmitter and Receiver

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Outage Minimization for a Fading Wireless Link with Energy Harvesting Transmitter and Receiver Abstract--This paper studies online power control policies for outage minimization in a fading wireless link with energy harvesting transmitter and receiver. The outage occurs when either the transmitter

  13. Environmental determinants of unscheduled residential outages in the electrical power distribution of Phoenix, Arizona

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Environmental determinants of unscheduled residential outages in the electrical power distribution: Distribution Electricity Interruption Outage Reliability a b s t r a c t The sustainability of power requires knowledge of unscheduled outage sources, including environ- mental and social factors. Despite

  14. Model-based congestion analysis during outage and system reconfiguration in GPRS networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Firenze, Università degli Studi di

    Model-based congestion analysis during outage and system reconfiguration in GPRS networks overlapping. In particular, we consider that one of the two cells is affected by an outage and we analyze resources become suddenly unavailable due to malfunctions. The occurrence of an outage is the typical event

  15. Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning *

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning * W nearly three years of D­T operations, TFTR underwent an extended outage during which large port covers of the torus, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium

  16. Outage Analysis for MIMO Rician Channels and Channels with Partial CSI

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yong Hoon

    Outage Analysis for MIMO Rician Channels and Channels with Partial CSI Won-Yong Shin, Sae the outage performance and diversity- multiplexing tradeoff (DMT), originally introduced by Zheng and Tse (CSIT). The asymptotic behaviors of the outage are analyzed in the limit of high signal-to-noise ratio

  17. The Outage Performance of Realtime Transmission in Multiple Asynchronous Relays Enhanced OFDM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gross, James

    The Outage Performance of Realtime Transmission in Multiple Asynchronous Relays Enhanced OFDM@mail.ustc.edu.cn Abstract--This paper1 considers the outage performance of multiple relays transmission in Orthogonal communication systems that need to meet tough latency and outage requirements. Different from previous works

  18. On Secrecy Outage Capacity of Fading Channels Under Relaxed Delay Constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koksal, Can Emre

    On Secrecy Outage Capacity of Fading Channels Under Relaxed Delay Constraints Onur Gungor, Can Emre delay constraints. More specif- ically, we extend the definition of outage secrecy capacity for single, we provide bounds on secrecy outage capacity with k + 1 block delay constraint. We show

  19. Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning* W years of D-T operations, TFTR underwent an extended outage during which large port covers were removed, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium

  20. IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, JANUARY 2013 127 Capacity of Zero-Outage Scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Candan, Cagatay

    IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, JANUARY 2013 127 Capacity of Zero-Outage Scheme Under Imprecise Channel State Information C¸ a~gatay Candan Abstract--The capacity of zero-outage scheme-to-noise-ratio fluctuates and the scheme suffers from com- munication outages. Exact analytical expressions characterizing

  1. Outage Capacity of the Fading Relay Channel in the Low SNR Regime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tse, David

    Outage Capacity of the Fading Relay Channel in the Low SNR Regime A. Salman Avestimehr and David N at the outage capacity of the fading relay channel with half-duplex constraint in the low SNR regime. First we. In this case we show that a Bursty Amplify-Forward (BAF) protocol is optimal and achieves the outage capacity

  2. Using Outage History to Exclude High-Risk Satellites from GBAS Corrections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    Using Outage History to Exclude High-Risk Satellites from GBAS Corrections SAM PULLEN and PER ENGE constellation are not expected to violate this assumption. A study of unscheduled GPS satellite outages from. In addition, satellites that have recently experienced unscheduled outages are more likely to suffer

  3. MIMO Outage Capacity in the High SNR Regime Narayan Prasad Mahesh K. Varanasi

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varanasi, Mahesh K.

    MIMO Outage Capacity in the High SNR Regime Narayan Prasad Mahesh K. Varanasi NEC Labs. America channel with coherent reception and pro- vide a sharp characterization of the outage capacity in the form on the outage capacities un- der a long-term and a short-term power constraint as well as on the delay

  4. Analysis of BGP Prefix Origins During Google's May 2005 Outage Tao Wan Paul C. van Oorschot

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Oorschot, Paul

    Analysis of BGP Prefix Origins During Google's May 2005 Outage Tao Wan Paul C. van Oorschot School- vice outage is BGP. To pursue the latter possibility further, we explore how BGP was functioning during prior to the service outage. As a result, 49.1% of ASes re-advertising routes for 64

  5. Minimum Duration Outages in Rayleigh Fading Channels Jie Lai and Narayan B. Mandayam

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mandayam, Narayan

    Minimum Duration Outages in Rayleigh Fading Channels Jie Lai and Narayan B. Mandayam WINLAB@winlab.rutgers.edu Abstract Minimum duration outages have been introduced in [1, 2] for lognormal shadow fading where the durations of signal fades were considered in evaluating outages. In this pa­ per we develop and analyze

  6. Service Outage Based Power and Rate Allocation Jianghong Luo, Lang Lin, Roy Yates, and Predrag Spasojevic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yates, Roy

    1 Service Outage Based Power and Rate Allocation Jianghong Luo, Lang Lin, Roy Yates, and Predrag Spasojevi´c Abstract--This paper combines the concepts of ergodic capac- ity and capacity versus outage for fading channels, and explores variable rate transmissions under a service outage constraint in a block

  7. Copyright 2010 IEEE. Reprinted from: Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated by OPA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Copyright © 2010 IEEE. Reprinted from: Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated, February 2010 c IEEE 2010 Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated by OPA Janghoon Kim transmission line outages on the 300 bus IEEE test system. We discuss the effectiveness of the estimator

  8. Preventing power outages Power system contingency analysis on the GPU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vuik, Kees

    problem. Moreover, the power system has to keep functioning properly even when a transmission line failsPreventing power outages Power system contingency analysis on the GPU To provide electricity generators, nuclear power plants, wind turbines, etc.) and a network of lines and cables to transmit

  9. Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Responding to Power Outages and Floods 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lesikar, Bruce J.; Mechell, Justin; Alexander, Rachel

    2008-10-23

    People and the environment can be harmed if a home's onsite wastewater treatment system does not work properly after a flood or power outage. This publication explains the steps to take after such an event to get the system back into service. 4 pp...

  10. Secrecy Outage Capacity of Fading Channels Onur Gungor, Jian Tan, Can Emre Koksal, Hesham El-Gamal, Ness B. Shroff

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koksal, Can Emre

    Secrecy Outage Capacity of Fading Channels Onur Gungor, Jian Tan, Can Emre Koksal, Hesham El under an outage constraint. More specifically, we extend the definition of outage capacity to account different assumptions on the transmitter CSI (Channel state information). First, we find the outage secrecy

  11. Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering Outage Probability of a Multi-User

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valenti, Matthew C.

    Reynolds, and Matthew C. Valenti Lane Dept. of Comp. Sci and Elec. Eng. West Virginia University Morgantown Virginia University Page 1 #12;Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering · Conclusions March 14, 2007 West Virginia University Page 2 #12;Lane Department of Computer Science

  12. Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:Financing Tool Fits the Bill FinancingDepartment ofPower Outages Homeowners: Respond to Power

  13. Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-01

    Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

  14. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2012-05-31

    Abstract- This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses different approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies. The second paper summarizes the state of the art in modeling tools for risk assessment of cascading outages.

  15. Study, outlines why outages go long, short, or on-time

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    A recent report by a nuclear industry professional, based on a survey of outage managers at US nuclear power plants, declares that [open quotes]preplanned outage schedules appear to be grossly inaccurate, and the outage management planners and schedulers do not have a grasp of the requirements and/or the resources needed to complete the actual activities on schedule.[close quotes] It declares that [open quotes]the scheduled duration of a planned outage must be realistic.[close quotes] The study identifies personnel, planning and scheduling, and equipment/hardware as [open quotes]the primary reasons why refueling outages and outage activities finished ahead of, right on, or behind schedule.[close quotes

  16. probability distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heller, Barbara

    probabilities in the standard normal table What is the area to the left of Z=1.51 in a standard normal curve? Z=1.51 Z=1.51 Area is 93.45% #12;Exercises · If scores are normally distributed with a mean of 30 beauty of the normal curve: No matter what and are, the area between - and + is about 68%; the area

  17. A Study of Outage Management Practices at Selected U.S. Nuclear Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, James C. [ABSG Consulting Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This paper presents insights gained from a study of the outage management practices at a number of U.S. nuclear plants. The objective of the study was to conduct an in-depth review of the current practices of outage management at these selected plants and identify important factors that have contributed to the recent success of their outage performance. Two BWR-4, three BWR-6, and two 3-loop Westinghouse PWR plants were selected for this survey. The results of this study can be used to formulate outage improvement efforts for nuclear plants in other countries. (author)

  18. Analysis of allowed outage times at the Byron Generating Station

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cho, N.Z.; Chu, T.L.; Xue, D.; Bozoki, G.E.; Youngblood, R.W.

    1986-06-01

    This report provides a critical review of the methods used in WCAP-10526 which proposed that allowed outage times (AOTs) for a number of safety systems in the Byron Generating Station be increased from 3 to 7 days, and presents an independent estimate of the change in risk involved in the AOT extension. It also presents results of several sensitivity studies. Also included are a survey of methods that can be used to evaluate nuclear power plant technical specifications and a description of pairwise importance measures. 53 tabs.

  19. Property:OutagePhoneNumber | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EIS Report Url Jump to: navigation,News/LinkUtility JumpOutagePhoneNumber

  20. Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dobson, Ian

    Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems that progressively weakens the system. Large electric power transmission systems occasionally have cascading failures of transmission lines. The multiple mechanisms involved these cascading outages are many and varied, and the power

  1. Quantitative evaluation of savings in outage costs by using emergency actions strategy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akhtar, A.; Asuhaimi, A.; Shaibon, H. [Univ. Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bharu (Malaysia); Lo, K.L. [Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow (United Kingdom)

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents the results of a study carried out to assess the savings in consumer outage costs that can be accrued as a result of implementing Emergency Actions Strategy. The use of Emergency Actions Strategy plays a significant role in curtailing the consumer outage costs ensuing from unreliable electric service. In order to calculate the savings in outage costs, the probabilistic framework of the frequency and duration method has been used in conjunction with emergency actions. At first, the outage costs of various consumer sectors are estimated without considering the emergency actions. Secondly, the consumer outage costs are calculated by combining the frequency and duration method, and unserved energy with the emergency actions invoked. The results of the savings in consumer outage costs that can be accrued by utilizing Emergency Actions Strategy are presented for a synthetic system. The results of the study show that substantial savings in consumer outage costs are obtained by devising and implementing emergency actions strategy in situations of capacity outages. The results are of particular relevance and utility to the underdeveloped and developing countries where capacity shortages occur quite frequently. These results also suggest the importance of emergency actions strategy for electric utilities in reducing the consumer economic losses arising from unreliable electric service.

  2. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Part I - Overview of Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2011-07-31

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which will extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses diffeent approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies.

  3. 3232 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 54, NO. 7, JULY 2008 On the Outage Capacity Distribution of Correlated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    3232 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 54, NO. 7, JULY 2008 On the Outage Capacity in the amplify-and-forward mode. This paper inves- tigates instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and outage. This SNR, as well as the outage capacity, decreases with correlation. For a large number of transmit

  4. On the Duality between Outage Capacity and Multiuser Scheduling Gain for MIMO Systems and the Impact of Shadow Fading*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Huaiyu

    On the Duality between Outage Capacity and Multiuser Scheduling Gain for MIMO Systems on individual link outage capacity and multiuser scheduling gain for MIMO systems are quantified, which admits fading, while significantly limits the channel outage capacity as expected, actually enhances

  5. Detecting Internet Outages with Active Probing USC/ISI Technical Report ISI-TR-672, May 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    Detecting Internet Outages with Active Probing USC/ISI Technical Report ISI-TR-672, May 2011 Lin on the Internet, understanding its reliability is more important than ever. Network outages vary in scope and cause, from the intentional shutdown of the Egyptian Inter- net in February 2011, to outages caused

  6. Detecting Internet Outages with Precise Active Probing USC/ISI Technical Report ISI-TR-678b

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    Detecting Internet Outages with Precise Active Probing (extended) USC/ISI Technical Report ISI Japanese earthquake, to the thousands of small outages caused by localized accidents, and human error, motivating our new system to detect network outages by active probing. We show that a single computer can

  7. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 54, NO. 4, APRIL 2008 1423 Approaching the Zero-Outage Capacity of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barry, John R.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 54, NO. 4, APRIL 2008 1423 Approaching the Zero-Outage-defined outage capacity. A transmitter with channel knowledge can achieve this capacity by a combination of eigen to approach the zero-outage capacity of the MIMO-OFDM channel; it is sufficient instead to use a combination

  8. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 24, NO. 3, AUGUST 2009 1633 Direct Calculation of Line Outage Distribution Factors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fu, Yong

    Outage Distribution Factors Jiachun Guo, Yong Fu, Member, IEEE, Zuyi Li, Member, IEEE, and Mohammad Shahidehpour, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--Line outage distribution factors (LODFs) are utilized to perform of LODFs, especially with multiple-line outages, could speed up contingency analyses and improve

  9. Variation of PMD-induced Outage Rates and Durations with Link Length on Buried Standard Single-mode Fibers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kansas, University of

    Variation of PMD-induced Outage Rates and Durations with Link Length on Buried Standard Single, Overland Park, Kansas Abstract: From first-order polarization-mode dispersion (PMD) outage analysis using that the outage rates increase monotonically with link length, although not linearly. © 2005 Optical Society

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    S. 09 BIOMASS FUELS; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; BSM; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; BIOFUEL INCENTIVES; SCENARIOS; Bioenergy;...

  11. Impact of outages on GPRS service availability General Packet Radio Service has been developed to enhance the GSM telecommunication system with the addition of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Firenze, Università degli Studi di

    Impact of outages on GPRS service availability General Packet Radio Service has been developed to those of outage is not a satisfactory measure to know. During outages, there is an accumulation of users to the users. A study on the impact of outages on GPRS service availability is being conducted in the framework

  12. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America Using the SWITCH Electric Power Sector Planning Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nelson, James Henry

    2013-01-01

    generators  are  therefore  not  de-­?rated   by   forced   outage   rates.     Outages   from   the   failure  

  13. Fast Detection and Mitigation of Cascading Outages in the Power System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pang, Chengzong

    2012-02-14

    This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and proposes the improved interactive scheme between system-wide and local levels of monitoring and control to quickly detect, classify and mitigate the cascading...

  14. Draft!07"18"2011! 1 Turning the Tide on Outages1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amin, S. Massoud

    !programs!of!replacement,!rehabilitation!and!new!investment!in!the! U.S.!infrastructure.! ! Focusing!on!the!electric!power!sector,!the!power!outages!and!power!quality!whether!the!carrying!capacity!or!safety!margin!will!exist! to!support!anticipated!demand!is!in!question.! ! To!assess!impacts!using!actual!electric!power!outage!construction!expenditures!have!lagged! behind!asset!depreciation.!This!has!resulted!in!a!mode!of!operation!of!the!system

  15. Ultraviolet Communication Network Modeling and Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Leijie

    2011-01-01

    4.4.1 Outage Probability . . . . . . .transmission throughput and outage probability against p fortransmission throughput and outage probability against ? for

  16. The use of probability techniques in value-based planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rau, N.S. (National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States))

    1994-11-01

    Present techniques used in value-based planning do not properly represent neither the durations of capacity outage nor the effects of outage on post-interruption demand. Generation outage models do not relate the expected quantum of shortages to particular durations of outage. A model is proposed to compute this expectation by using the generator outage statistics in its entirety. The application of this model to the IEEE test system gave different results, depending on which outage cost data were used. Consequently, there is a need for a uniform procedure to report outage costs. A bottom-up procedure based on end use is proposed as a possibility.

  17. OTRA-THS MAC to reduce Power Outage Data Collection Latency in a smart meter network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garlapati, Shravan K; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Buehrer, Richard M; Reed, Jeffrey H

    2014-01-01

    The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure by the electric utilities poses unique communication challenges, particularly as the number of meters per aggregator increases. During a power outage, a smart meter tries to report it instantaneously to the electric utility. In a densely populated residential/industrial locality, it is possible that a large number of smart meters simultaneously try to get access to the communication network to report the power outage. If the number of smart meters is very high of the order of tens of thousands (metropolitan areas), the power outage data flooding can lead to Random Access CHannel (RACH) congestion. Several utilities are considering the use of cellular network for smart meter communications. In 3G/4G cellular networks, RACH congestion not only leads to collisions, retransmissions and increased RACH delays, but also has the potential to disrupt the dedicated traffic flow by increasing the interference levels (3G CDMA). In order to overcome this problem, in this paper we propose a Time Hierarchical Scheme (THS) that reduces the intensity of power outage data flooding and power outage reporting delay by 6/7th, and 17/18th when compared to their respective values without THS. Also, we propose an Optimum Transmission Rate Adaptive (OTRA) MAC to optimize the latency in power outage data collection. The analysis and simulation results presented in this paper show that both the OTRA and THS features of the proposed MAC results in a Power Outage Data Collection Latency (PODCL) that is 1/10th of the 4G LTE PODCL.

  18. Status Report on the Development of Micro-Scheduling Software for the Advanced Outage Control Center Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shawn St. Germain; Kenneth Thomas; Ronald Farris; Jeffrey Joe

    2014-09-01

    The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet, refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependent activities that are difficult to coordinate. Finding ways to improve refueling outage performance while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a R&D program which works with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current NPPs. The Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, this INL R&D project is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report describes specific recent efforts to develop a capability called outage Micro-Scheduling. Micro-Scheduling is the ability to allocate and schedule outage support task resources on a sub-hour basis. Micro-Scheduling is the real-time fine-tuning of the outage schedule to react to the actual progress of the primary outage activities to ensure that support task resources are optimally deployed with the least amount of delay and unproductive use of resources. The remaining sections of this report describe in more detail the scheduling challenges that occur during outages, how a Micro-Scheduling capability helps address those challenges, and provides a status update on work accomplished to date and the path forward.

  19. Policy on University Closure or Class/Examination Cancellation Adverse conditions such as winter storms or power outages will, from time to time, require the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lotze, Heike K.

    such as winter storms or power outages will, from time to time, require the University to reduce or restrict its of individual units' operations. For example, a power outage may not affect all campuses

  20. Nuclear Safety Risk Management in Refueling Outage of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meijing Wu; Guozhang Shen [Qinshan Nuclear power company (China)

    2006-07-01

    The NPP is used to planning maintenance, in-service inspection, surveillance test, fuel handling and design modification in the refueling outage; the operator response capability will be reduced plus some of the plant systems out of service or loss of power at this time. Based on 8 times refueling outage experiences of the Qinshan NPP, this article provide some good practice and lesson learned for the nuclear safety risk management focus at four safety function areas of Residual Heat Removal Capability, Inventory Control, Power availability and Reactivity control. (authors)

  1. Cross-layer design of wideband CDMA systems and cooperative diversity for wireless ad hoc networks :

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Annavajjala, Ramesh

    2006-01-01

    High SNR Outage Analysis . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy of High SNR Outage Probability Approximations . . .of High SNR Outage Probability Expressions . . . . .

  2. Directions for accessing Blackboard 9 Sandbox Test Sites: Please Note: These sites are hosted on a development server, which is prone to outages, updates, etc.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, Jeffrey J.

    on a development server, which is prone to outages, updates, etc. There may be times when the sites are unavailable

  3. Copyright 2008 IEEE. Reprinted from Hui Ren, Student Member, IEEE and Ian Dobson, Fellow, IEEE; Using Transmission Line Outage Data to Estimate Cascading Failure Propagation in an

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ; Using Transmission Line Outage Data to Estimate Cascading Failure Propagation in an Electric Power ON CIRCUITS AND SYSTEMS--II: EXPRESS BRIEFS, VOL. 55, NO. 9, SEPTEMBER 2008 927 Using Transmission Line Outage, IEEE, and Ian Dobson, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--We study cascading transmission line outages recorded over

  4. Sensitivity and Scenario Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Winston

    Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

  5. Biomass Scenario Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    bio-oil techno- economic analyses o Aviation biofuels and the European Union emissions trading system (ETS) o Light-duty-vehicle (LDV) ethanol-demand scenario analysis o Long...

  6. Smoldering - The Fire Scenario 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Torero, Jose L

    2000-01-01

    There are certain fire initiation scenarios that are particularly common, one of great significance is a fire initiated from the ignition of a porous fuel. Nearly 40% of the deaths due to fire can be traced to cigarette induced ...

  7. An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durrani, Salman

    An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid Wayes Tushar§, Jian--In this paper an efficient energy curtailment scheme is studied, which enables the power users of a smart grid. Considering the advantages of a two-way communications infrastructure for any future smart grid, a non

  8. 96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amin, S. Massoud

    96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 T THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF August 2003- gic--of the energy and infrastructure security challenges facing our nation. Those authors-level backups, to focus main- ly on coping is unwisely defeatist. As an energy professional and an electrical

  9. MonteCarlo and Analytical Methods for Forced Outage Rate Calculations of Peaking Units 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rondla, Preethi 1988-

    2012-10-26

    pessimistic results owing to its time spent in the reserve shut down state. Therefore the normal two state representation of a generating unit is not adequate. A four state model was proposed by an IEEE committee to calculate the forced outage rate...

  10. On PMU Location Selection for Line Outage Detection in Wide-area Transmission Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Yue

    1 On PMU Location Selection for Line Outage Detection in Wide-area Transmission Networks Yue Zhao, Member, IEEE, Andrea Goldsmith, Fellow, IEEE, and H. Vincent Poor, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--The optimal PMU algorithm is proposed to find the globally optimal PMU locations. Using this algorithm, the optimal trade

  11. Application of Hybrid Geo-Spatially Granular Fragility Curves to Improve Power Outage Predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fernandez, Steven J; Allen, Melissa R; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Walker, Kimberly A

    2014-01-01

    Fragility curves depict the relationship between a weather variable (wind speed, gust speed, ice accumulation, precipitation rate) and the observed outages for a targeted infrastructure network. This paper describes an empirical study of the county by county distribution of power outages and one minute weather variables during Hurricane Irene with the objective of comparing 1) as built fragility curves (statistical approach) to engineering as designed (bottom up) fragility curves for skill in forecasting outages during future hurricanes; 2) county specific fragility curves to find examples of significant deviation from average behavior; and 3) the engineering practices of outlier counties to suggest future engineering studies of robustness. Outages in more than 90% of the impacted counties could be anticipated through an average or generic fragility curve. The remaining counties could be identified and handled as exceptions through geographic data sets. The counties with increased or decreased robustness were characterized by terrain more or less susceptible to persistent flooding in areas where above ground poles located their foundations. Land use characteristics of the area served by the power distribution system can suggest trends in the as built power grid vulnerabilities to extreme weather events that would be subjects for site specific studies.

  12. Reuter Power Outage Communications: Needs, Infrastructures, Concepts Proceedings of the 10th

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURES AND THEIR AVAILABILITY DURING POWER OUTAGES The 2012 blackout in India (670 million affected), the 2009 blackout in Brazil and Paraguay (87 million), the 2006 European blackout (10 million) and the 2003 Northeast blackout in the United States and Canada (55 million) show that big power

  13. Prediction-Based Recovery from Link Outages in On-Board Mobile Communication Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Libman, Lavy

    , such as those pro- posed for (and employed in) public transport vehicles, users are connected to a local network transport routes, and their repetitive nature, allows a certain degree of prediction of impending link extension known as Freeze-TCP, we study how the performance of the protocol depends on the outage prediction

  14. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  15. Big Data Privacy Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bruce, Elizabeth

    2015-10-01

    This paper is the first in a series on privacy in Big Data. As an outgrowth of a series of workshops on the topic, the Big Data Privacy Working Group undertook a study of a series of use scenarios to highlight the challenges ...

  16. Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Ontology of Earthquake Probability: Metaphor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stark, Philip B.

    Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Ontology of Earthquake Probability: Metaphor be abandoned in favor of common sense. #12;Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Earthquake not random. ­Wm. ShakesEarth #12;Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Earthquake Poker

  17. Final Remediation Report for the K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (643-1G)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morganstern, M.

    2002-06-18

    The K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (K BPOP) Building Number 643-1G, is situated immediately south and outside the K-Reactor fence line and is approximately 400 feet in length and 60 feet in width. For the K BPOP operable unit, the Land Use Control (LUC) objectives are to prevent contact, removal, or excavation of buried waste in the area and to preclude residential use of the area.

  18. Standard Scenarios Annual Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  19. A $?$CDM bounce scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yi-Fu Cai; Edward Wilson-Ewing

    2015-01-28

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  20. ILC Operating Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Barklow; J. Brau; K. Fujii; J. Gao; J. List; N. Walker; K. Yokoya

    2015-06-25

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  1. Hume, Induction, Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fitelson, Branden

    Hume, Induction, and Probability Peter J.R. Millican The University of Leeds Department is to understand Hume's famous argument concerning induction, and to appraise its success in establishing its for the argument (§4.3); (g) Refutation of Stove's well-known alternative diagram (§5.1); (h) Likewise of Stove

  2. MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koç, Yakup; Araujo, Nuno A M; Warnier, Martijn

    2013-01-01

    Blackouts in power grids typically result from cascading failures. The key importance of the electric power grid to society encourages further research into sustaining power system reliability and developing new methods to manage the risks of cascading blackouts. Adequate software tools are required to better analyze, understand, and assess the consequences of the cascading failures. This paper presents MATCASC, an open source MATLAB based tool to analyse cascading failures in power grids. Cascading effects due to line overload outages are considered. The applicability of the MATCASC tool is demonstrated by assessing the robustness of IEEE test systems and real-world power grids with respect to cascading failures.

  3. Report on Scenario Development and Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ................................................................................................................................................4 Scenario 1: Higher wind penetration ..........................................................................................................4 Scenario 4: Reducing Cost of Electricity-as-usual ................................................................................................................................7 Scenario 1: Higher Wind Penetration

  4. A Minimal Inflation Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luis Alvarez-Gaume; Cesar Gomez; Raul Jimenez

    2011-10-18

    We elaborate on a minimal inflation scenario based entirely on the general properties of supersymmetry breaking in supergravity models. We identify the inflaton as the scalar component of the Goldstino superfield. We write plausible candidates for the effective action describing this chiral superfield. In particular the theory depends (apart from parameters of O(1)) on a single free parameter: the scale of supersymmetry breaking. This can be fixed using the amplitude of CMB cosmological perturbations and we therefore obtain the scale of supersymmetry breaking to be 10^{12-14} GeV. The model also incorporates explicit R-symmetry breaking in order to satisfy the slow roll conditions. In our model the eta-problem is solved without extra fine-tuning. We try to obtain as much information as possible in a model independent way using general symmetry properties of the theory's effective action, this leads to a new proposal on how to exit the inflationary phase and reheat the Universe.

  5. Analytical Tools to Predict Distribution Outage Restoration Load. Final Project Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Law, John

    1994-11-14

    The main activity of this project has been twofold: (1) development of a computer model to predict CLPU(Cold Load Pickup) and (2) development of a field measurement and analysis method to obtain the input parameters of the CLPU model. The field measurement and analysis method is called the Step-Voltage-Test (STEPV). The Kootenai Electric Cooperative Appleway 51 feeder in Coeur d`Alene was selected for analysis in this project and STEPV tests were performed in winters of 92 and 93. The STEPV data was analyzed (method and results presented within this report) to obtain the Appleway 51 feeder parameters for prediction by the CLPU model. One only CLPU record was obtained in winter 1994. Unfortunately, the actual CLPU was not dramatic (short outage and moderate temperature) and did not display cyclic restoration current. A predicted Appleway 51 feeder CLPU was generated using the parameters obtained via the STEPV measurement/analysis/algorithm method at the same ambient temperature and outage duration as the measured actual CLPU. The predicted CLPU corresponds reasonably well with the single actual CLPU data obtained in winter 1994 on the Appleway 51 feeder.

  6. Outage Log

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJesseworkSURVEYI/O Streams forOrhan Kizilkaya, Ph.D.Our Team Our Team OurOurOut

  7. Status of Light Gaugino Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Glennys R. Farrar

    1997-10-08

    I summarize recent devlopments in supersymmetry scenarios which leave some or all gauginos light. The emphasis is on experimental and phenomenological progress in the past year.

  8. Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

  9. Policy on Building use during Ventilation Outage: School of Science Roger Bacon Hall and Morrell Science Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Policy on Building use during Ventilation Outage: School of Science Roger Bacon Hall and Morrell not only laboratories, but also the entire building, including non-laboratory space. When Roger Bacon Hall environment. When a laboratory in Roger Bacon Hall or Morrell Science Center has no ventilation or reduced

  10. Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard

    2006-07-15

    Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)

  11. Olkiluoto 1 and 2 - Plant efficiency improvement and lifetime extension-project (PELE) implemented during outages 2010 and 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kosonen, M.; Hakola, M. [Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, F- 27160 Eurajoki (Finland)

    2012-07-01

    Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) is a non-listed public company founded in 1969 to produce electricity for its stakeholders. TVO is the operator of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. TVO follows the principle of continuous improvement in the operation and maintenance of the Olkiluoto plant units. The PELE project (Plant Efficiency Improvement and Lifetime Extension), mainly completed during the annual outages in 2010 and 2011, and forms one part of the systematic development of Olkiluoto units. TVO maintains a long-term development program that aims at systematically modernizing the plant unit systems and equipment based on the latest technology. According to the program, the Olkiluoto 1 and Olkiluoto 2 plant units are constantly renovated with the intention of keeping them safe and reliable, The aim of the modernization projects is to improve the safety, reliability, and performance of the plant units. PELE project at Olkiluoto 1 was done in 2010 and at Olkiluoto 2 in 2011. The outage length of Olkiluoto 1 was 26 d 12 h 4 min and Olkiluoto 2 outage length was 28 d 23 h 46 min. (Normal service-outage is about 14 days including refueling and refueling-outage length is about seven days. See figure 1) The PELE project consisted of several single projects collected into one for coordinated project management. Some of the main projects were as follows: - Low pressure turbines: rotor, stator vane, casing and turbine instrumentation replacement. - Replacement of Condenser Cooling Water (later called seawater pumps) pumps - Replacement of inner isolation valves on the main steam lines. - Generator and the generator cooling system replacement. - Low voltage switchgear replacement. This project will continue during future outages. PELE was a success. 100 TVO employees and 1500 subcontractor employees participated in the project. The execution of the PELE projects went extremely well during the outages. The replacement of the low pressure turbines and seawater pumps improved the efficiency of the plant units, and a power increase of nearly 20 MW was achieved at both plant units. PELE wonderfully manifests one of the strategic goals of our company; developing the competence of our in-house personnel by working in projects. (authors)

  12. The Logic of Parametric Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Norman, Joseph W

    2012-01-01

    The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are solved, from Johnson-Laird's aces to Smullyan's zombies. Many apparently challenging problems in logic turn out to be simple problems in algebra and computer science; often just systems of polynomial equations or linear optimization problems. This work extends the mathematical logic and parametric probability methods invented by George Boole.

  13. Emptiness Formation Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nicholas Crawford; Stephen Ng; Shannon Starr

    2014-12-30

    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-$1/2$ Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a $d$-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order $\\exp(-c L^{d+1})$ where $L$ is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the $d=1$ case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case $d \\geq 2$ are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  14. Robust Minimax Probability Machine Regression Robust Minimax Probability Machine Regression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grudic, Greg

    Robust Minimax Probability Machine Regression Robust Minimax Probability Machine Regression Thomas of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder, C0 80309-0430, USA Abstract We formulate regression as maximizing the minimum probability () that the regression model is within ± of all future observations (i

  15. Probabilistic analysis of allowed outage times relaxation at a PWR plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cho, N.; Chu, T.; Xue, D.; Bozoki, G.; Youngblood, R.

    1986-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) in a nuclear power plant are specific requirements on its day-to-day operation, designed to protect public health and safety. Two primary aspects of the TS are (1) limiting conditions of operation (LCO) with allowed outage times (AOTs) and (2) surveillance testing intervals (STIs). In recent years, there has been growing interest in the nuclear community in reexamining the TS. One of the reasons is that a significant portion of reactor downtime (plant unavailability) is attributable to the strict TS. Existing TS were derived from engineering judgement based on deterministic review; they were not directly risk-based, and their efficacy in enhancing public safety is difficult to establish. This paper presents a summary of a critical review of the Westinghouse report which proposed that AOTs for a number of safety systems at the Byron Generating Station be increased from 3 to 7 days.

  16. Reducing Duration of Refueling Outage by Optimizing Core Design and Shuffling Sequence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wakker, P.H.; Verhagen, F.C.M.; Bloois, J.T. van; Sutton, W.R. III

    2005-07-15

    Reducing the duration of refueling outage is possible by optimizing the core design and the shuffling sequence. For both options software tools have been developed that have been applied to the three most recent cycles of the Borssele plant in the Netherlands. Applicability of the shuffling sequence optimization to boiling water reactors has been demonstrated by a comparison to a recent shuffle plan used in the Hatch plant located in the United States. Their uses have shown that both core design and shuffling sequence optimization can be exploited to reduce the time needed for reloading a core with an in-core shuffling scheme. Ex-core shuffling schemes for pressurized water reactors can still have substantial benefit from a core design using a minimized number of insert shuffles.

  17. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

    2008-02-01

    The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

  18. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  19. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  20. California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

    2008-01-01

    duty fuel demand in alternate scenarios. ..for light-duty fuel demand in alternate scenarios. Minimum52 Heavy-duty vehicle fuel demand for each alternate

  1. Description of the Scenario Machine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. M. Lipunov; K. A. Postnov; M. E. Prokhorov; A. I. Bogomazov

    2007-09-26

    We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.html

  2. Plant Outage Time Savings Provided by Subcritical Physics Testing at Vogtle Unit 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cupp, Philip [Southern Nuclear Company (United States); Heibel, M.D. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The most recent core reload design verification physics testing done at Southern Nuclear Company's (SNC) Vogtle Unit 2, performed prior to initial power operations in operating cycle 12, was successfully completed while the reactor was at least 1% {delta}K/K subcritical. The testing program used was the first application of the Subcritical Physics Testing (SPT) program developed by the Westinghouse Electric Company LLC. The SPT program centers on the application of the Westinghouse Subcritical Rod Worth Measurement (SRWM) methodology that was developed in cooperation with the Vogtle Reactor Engineering staff. The SRWM methodology received U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval in August of 2005. The first application of the SPT program occurred at Vogtle Unit 2 in October of 2005. The results of the core design verification measurements obtained during the SPT program demonstrated excellent agreement with prediction, demonstrating that the predicted core characteristics were in excellent agreement with the actual operating characteristics of the core. This paper presents an overview of the SPT Program used at Vogtle Unit 2 during operating cycle 12, and a discussion of the critical path outage time savings the SPT program is capable of providing. (authors)

  3. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  4. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  5. Probability and complex quantum trajectories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John, Moncy V. [Department of Physics, St. Thomas College, Kozhencherry, Pathanamthitta, Kerala 689 641 (India)], E-mail: moneyjohn@yahoo.co.uk

    2009-01-15

    It is shown that in the complex trajectory representation of quantum mechanics, the Born's {psi}*{psi} probability density can be obtained from the imaginary part of the velocity field of particles on the real axis. Extending this probability axiom to the complex plane, we first attempt to find a probability density by solving an appropriate conservation equation. The characteristic curves of this conservation equation are found to be the same as the complex paths of particles in the new representation. The boundary condition in this case is that the extended probability density should agree with the quantum probability rule along the real line. For the simple, time-independent, one-dimensional problems worked out here, we find that a conserved probability density can be derived from the velocity field of particles, except in regions where the trajectories were previously suspected to be nonviable. An alternative method to find this probability density in terms of a trajectory integral, which is easier to implement on a computer and useful for single particle solutions, is also presented. Most importantly, we show, by using the complex extension of Schrodinger equation, that the desired conservation equation can be derived from this definition of probability density.

  6. Cooperative Multiplexing in Wireless Relay Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagpal, Vinayak

    2012-01-01

    2.1 Outage Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Efficient protocols and outage behavior. Information Theory,space time coding strategies. Outage probability provides a

  7. Progressive Bitstream Optimization in MIMO Channels Based on a Comparison Between OSTBC and SM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, S.-H.; Cosman, P C; Milstein, L B

    2013-01-01

    Hedayat and A. Nosratinia, “Outage and diversity of linearresults for the information outage probability and thefor both the information outage probability and the uncoded

  8. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  9. Analytic bounds on transmission probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boonserm, Petarpa

    2009-01-01

    We develop some new analytic bounds on transmission probabilities (and the related reflection probabilities and Bogoliubov coefficients) for generic one-dimensional scattering problems. To do so we rewrite the Schrodinger equation for some complicated potential whose properties we are trying to investigate in terms of some simpler potential whose properties are assumed known, plus a (possibly large) "shift" in the potential. Doing so permits us to extract considerable useful information without having to exactly solve the full scattering problem.

  10. Joint probability distributions for projection probabilities of random orthonormal states

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    L. Alonso; T. Gorin

    2015-10-19

    A finite dimensional quantum system for which the quantum chaos conjecture applies has eigenstates, which show the same statistical properties than the column vectors of random orthogonal or unitary matrices. Here, we consider the different probabilities for obtaining a specific outcome in a projective measurement, provided the system is in one of its eigenstates. We then give analytic expressions for the joint probability density for these probabilities, with respect to the ensemble of random matrices. In the case of the unitary group, our results can be applied, also, to the phenomenon of universal conductance fluctuations, where the same mathematical quantities describe partial conductances in a two-terminal mesoscopic scattering problem with a finite number of modes in each terminal.

  11. Entanglement cost in practical scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Francesco Buscemi; Nilanjana Datta

    2011-03-03

    We quantify the one-shot entanglement cost of an arbitrary bipartite state, that is the minimum number of singlets needed by two distant parties to create a single copy of the state up to a finite accuracy, using local operations and classical communication only. This analysis, in contrast to the traditional one, pertains to scenarios of practical relevance, in which resources are finite and transformations can only be achieved approximately. Moreover, it unveils a fundamental relation between two well-known entanglement measures, namely, the Schmidt number and the entanglement of formation. Using this relation, we are able to recover the usual expression of the entanglement cost as a special case.

  12. Spectrum-Sensing Opportunistic Wireless Relay Networks: Outage and Diversity Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yener, Aylin

    cooperatively sense the spectrum and help the designated cognitive relay node. I. INTRODUCTION The demand for radio spectrum is continuing to grow with new emerging applications and further market penetration-utilization of the spectrum that is in high demand [1]. In a more flexible scenario, one can envision that the licensed

  13. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2008-01-01

    a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is

  14. Report on Scenario Development and Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Natural Energy Institute School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology November 2007 #12................................................................................................................................................4 Scenario 1: Higher wind penetration-as-usual ................................................................................................................................7 Scenario 1: Higher Wind Penetration

  15. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jaume de Haro; Jaume Amorós

    2014-11-27

    It is shown that teleparallel $F({\\mathcal T})$ theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked thatthese bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  16. Fusion Probability in Dinuclear System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Juhee Hong

    2015-03-26

    Fusion can be described by the time evolution of a dinuclear system with two degrees of freedom, the relative motion and transfer of nucleons. In the presence of the coupling between two collective modes, we solve the Fokker-Planck equation in a locally harmonic approximation. The potential of a dinuclear system has the quasifission barrier and the inner fusion barrier, and the escape rates can be calculated by the Kramers' model. To estimate the fusion probability, we calculate the quasifission rate and the fusion rate. We investigate the coupling effects on the fusion probability and the cross section of evaporation residue.

  17. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  18. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 49, NO. 11, NOVEMBER 2003 2895 Capacity and Optimal Power Allocation for Fading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jindal, Nihar

    of Shannon capacity have been developed for multiuser fading channels: ergodic capacity and outage ca- pacity]­[3], while outage capacity achieves a constant rate in all non-outage fading states subject to an outage probability [4], [5]. Zero-outage capacity refers to outage capacity with zero outage probability [6

  19. Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

    2012-09-30

    This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

  20. On advantages of cooperation in cellular systems : throughput and heavy traffic performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhardwaj, Sumit

    2008-01-01

    gain vs. Outage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure 2.9 Probability of Outage vs. Load . . . . .of base station increases. Outage Results We next present

  1. Monitoring and Control in Scenario-Based Requirements Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bae, Doo-Hwan

    scenarios are detected #12;9 / 19 Implied Scenarios (3/3) Example Boiler Control System Implied Scenario of Boiler Control System Control pressure #12;10 / 19 Input-Output Implied Scenarios (1/4) Ability

  2. How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

  3. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  4. Preview of Scenario Planning & Collaborative Modeling Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and quantitative data and information. · Both are communication tools #12;What are Scenarios? · Stories about / issue we want to address? Monitor · As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does winter precipitation relative to summer PrecipitationPatterns Shrubland Novel Ecosystem Mixed

  5. CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN FUELLED VEHICLES by Katherine Aminta Muncaster of Research Project: Can Hydrogen Win?: Exploring Scenarios for Hydrogen Fuelled Vehicles Report No.: 459 explored the conditions under which hydrogen might succeed in Canada's transportation sector in a carbon

  6. SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Generation Sector ................................................. 23 Fuel Price Projections in the Scenario.D. Principal Author Michael R. Jaske, Ph.D. Scenario Project Manager Lorraine White IEPR Project Manager Sylvia.................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 3 - Natural Gas Market Clearing Price Implications of Reduced Consumption from the Power

  7. Proposed Scope and Schedule for Scenario and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    conservation and demand response development. Sensitivity S2 ­ Scenarios 1B and 2C w/Lower Natural Gas Prices on resource development of significantly lower natural gas prices. Sensitivity S3 ­ Scenarios 1B and 2C w and chapters. 2 #12;2014 Q4 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Demand/Price Forecasts Updated Methodology for Quantification

  8. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  9. Modeling probability distributions with predictive state representations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiewiora, Eric Walter

    2008-01-01

    Discovery is the process of choosing the core tests, whose success probabilities will become the state of the learned model.

  10. Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.

  11. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oren, Shmuel S.

    Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences http://journals.cambridge.org/PES Additional services for Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences: Email alerts: Click here Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences / Volume 8 / Issue 02 / April 1994, pp 287 290 DOI

  12. Phenomenology of Charginos and Neutralinos in the Light Gaugino Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Glennys R. Farrar

    1996-08-21

    The light gaugino scenario predicts that the lighter chargino mass is less than m_W, gluino and lightest neutralino masses are <~ 1 GeV, and the dominant decay mode of charginos and non-LSP neutralinos is generically to three jets. The excess "4j" events observed by ALEPH in e+ e- annihilation at 133 GeV may be evidence that m(C_1) = 53 GeV. If so, m(N_2) = 110-121 GeV, m(N_2) = 38-63 GeV, m(N_3) = 75-68 GeV; m(sneu_e) is probably ~m(C_1). A detailed analysis of the multi-jet events is needed to exclude this possibility. Consequences for FNAL and higher energy LEP running are given.

  13. Strategic Positioning in Tactical Scenario Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; Bender, Axel; Baker, Stephen; 10.1145/1389095.1389293

    2009-01-01

    Capability planning problems are pervasive throughout many areas of human interest with prominent examples found in defense and security. Planning provides a unique context for optimization that has not been explored in great detail and involves a number of interesting challenges which are distinct from traditional optimization research. Planning problems demand solutions that can satisfy a number of competing objectives on multiple scales related to robustness, adaptiveness, risk, etc. The scenario method is a key approach for planning. Scenarios can be defined for long-term as well as short-term plans. This paper introduces computational scenario-based planning problems and proposes ways to accommodate strategic positioning within the tactical planning domain. We demonstrate the methodology in a resource planning problem that is solved with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Our discussion and results highlight the fact that scenario-based planning is naturally framed within a multi-objective setting...

  14. Scenario Analysis Meeting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergy BillsNo. 195 -RobSSL INDepartment ofJuneScenario Analysis Meeting Scenario

  15. The impact of fuel cladding failure events on occupational radiation exposures at nuclear power plants: Case study, PWR (pressurized-water reactor) during an outage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moeller, M.P.; Martin, G.F.; Kenoyer, J.L.

    1987-08-01

    This report is the second in a series of case studies designed to evaluate the magnitude of increase in occupational radiation exposures at commercial US nuclear power plants resulting from small incidents or abnormal events. The event evaluated is fuel cladding failure, which can result in elevated primary coolant activity and increased radiation exposure rates within a plant. For this case study, radiation measurements were made at a pressurized-water reactor (PWR) during a maintenance and refueling outage. The PWR had been operating for 22 months with fuel cladding failure characterized as 105 pin-hole leakers, the equivalent of 0.21% failed fuel. Gamma spectroscopy measurements, radiation exposure rate determinations, thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) assessments, and air sample analyses were made in the plant's radwaste, pipe penetration, and containment buildings. Based on the data collected, evaluations indicate that the relative contributions of activation products and fission products to the total exposure rates were constant over the duration of the outage. This constancy is due to the significant contribution from the longer-lived isotopes of cesium (a fission product) and cobalt (an activation product). For this reason, fuel cladding failure events remain as significant to occupational radiation exposure during an outage as during routine operations. As documented in the previous case study (NUREG/CR-4485 Vol. 1), fuel cladding failure events increased radiation exposure rates an estimated 540% at some locations of the plant during routine operations. Consequently, such events can result in significantly greater radiation exposure rates in many areas of the plant during the maintenance and refueling outages than would have been present under normal fuel conditions.

  16. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Kong, Kyoungchul; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  17. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kracklauer, A. F. [Bauhaus Universitaet, PF 2040, 99401 Weimar (Germany)

    2007-12-03

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  18. Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas Marlow

    2006-03-06

    We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.

  19. Average transmission probability of a random stack

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yin Lu; Christian Miniatura; Berthold-Georg Englert

    2009-07-31

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower bounds. The upper bound, when used as an approximation for the transmission probability, is unreasonably good and we conjecture that it is asymptotically exact.

  20. Modern Probability Theory and Its Applications 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parzen, Emanuel

    1960-01-01

    who have contributed to this book by their comments, I offer my thanks. Particularly valuable assistance has been rendered by E. Dalton and D. Ylvisaker and also by M. Boswell and P. Williams. To the cheerful, hard-working staff of the Applied... drawings. Stanford, California January 1960 EMANUEL PARZEN Contents CHAPTER PROBABILITY THEORY AS THE STUDY OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF RANDOM PHENOMENA Probability theory as the study of random phenomena 2 Probability theory as the study...

  1. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape...

  2. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by...

  3. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment...

  4. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak...

  5. Emergent scenario and different anisotropic models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sudeshna Mukerji; Nairwita Mazumder; Ritabrata Biswas; Subenoy Chakraborty

    2011-06-09

    In this work, Emergent Universe scenario has been developed in general homogeneous anisotropic model and for the inhomogeneus LTB model. In the first case, it is assumed that the matter in the universe has two components - one is perfect fluid with barotropic equation of state $p=\\omega\\rho$ ($\\omega$, a constant) and the other component is a real or phantom (or tachyonic) scalar field. In the second case, the universe is only filled with a perfect fluid and possibilities for the existence of emergent scenario has been examined.

  6. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany)] [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany)] [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)] [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a comprehensive set of probable future evolutions of the repository site. By stepwise consideration of less probable FEP or less probable characteristics of FEP within this process, alternative scenarios are also developed, which are characterized by a lower probability of occurrence. An important methodological aspect is that some assumptions had to be made for the scenario development. They allow, on the one hand, to deal systematically with incomplete knowledge regarding the geological situation below ground owing to restricted site investigations, and, on the other hand, to structure the scenario development process. The consideration of alternative assumptions may result in additional alternative scenarios. (authors)

  7. Impact on Coverage and Capacity of Reduced Transmit Power in Cellular Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    . Coupechoux (TPT) Limiting Power Transmission 4 April 2012 1 / 20 #12;Outlines Interference Model Outage Transmission 4 April 2012 4 / 20 #12;Outage Probabilities Outage Probabilities: Generic Expression For n MS Power Transmission 4 April 2012 5 / 20 #12;Outage Probabilities Outage Probabilities: Without Shadowing

  8. Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodriguez, Carlos

    of Probability Theory Chapter 16 Orthodox Statistics: Historical Background Chapter 17 Principles and Pathology Marginalization Theory Chapter 27 Communication Theory Chapter 28 Optimal Antenna and Filter Design Chapter 29 Statistical Mechanics Chapter 30 Conclusions APPENDICES Appendix A Other Approaches to Probability Theory

  9. Analytical Study of Thermonuclear Reaction Probability Integrals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. A. Chaudhry; H. J. Haubold; A. M. Mathai

    2000-01-16

    An analytic study of the reaction probability integrals corresponding to the various forms of the slowly varying cross-section factor $S(E)$ is attempted. Exact expressions for reaction probability integrals are expressed in terms of the extended gamma functions.

  10. Managing Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    prescribed innovation methods, inovation is as much about a social process and context as it is a systematic process, thus making it somewhat naturalistic in character [3,4]. How does one manage innovation used for military planning and by the petrochemical industry [6]. Scenarios allow information

  11. Life Cycle Assessment of Three Water Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    1 Life Cycle Assessment of Three Water Scenarios: Importation, Reclamation, and Desalination Erin and Environmental Engineering Arizona State University #12;Life Cycle Assessment · Described by International · Data analyzed and categorized · Find impacts on planet and humans #12;Life Cycle Assessment Extraction

  12. Reading for Thursday Emissions scenario summary

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schweik, Charles M.

    emissions, for year 2000 #12;USA ­ CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (2005) US EPA #12;#12;#12;Decreasing 13C strongly suggests that the source of atmospheric CO2 is fossil carbon #12;Line of evidence #1Reading for Thursday · Emissions scenario summary: ­ Read pages 3-6 · IPCC Chapter 11 (Regional

  13. Supporting Data Collection in Complex Scenarios with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ulm, Universität

    in their products. Such reports usually involve data from suppliers of the reporting company. Therefore, companies the suppliers of the suppliers, and so on. Figure 1 illustrates this scenario with three exemplified tiers of suppliers of a company. While having only two direct suppliers on tier one, the company also has eight

  14. 18.05 Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Spring 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Panchenko, Dmitry

    This course provides an elementary introduction to probability and statistics with applications. Topics include: basic probability models; combinatorics; random variables; discrete and continuous probability distributions; ...

  15. Downlink User Selection and Resource Allocation for Semi-Elastic Flows in an OFDM Cell

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Chao; Jordan, Scott

    2013-01-01

    allocation, the probability of outage, and the duality gap.concerns the probability of outage, Pr(R k = 0). Suppose thek . The probability of outage can be related to the maximum

  16. Packet-Based Power Allocation for Forward Link Data Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jordan, Scott

    2007-01-01

    number of active users Outage probability frequency GaussianTotal power P sum Fig. 3. (a) Outage probability vs. ? withH)]}, versus the target outage probability q 0 for different

  17. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  18. Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

    1993-12-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.

  19. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  20. Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:Financing Tool Fits the Bill FinancingDepartment ofPowerScenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) (Argonne

  1. SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC PERSONAL PROBABILITY IAN HACKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fitelson, Branden

    SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC PERSONAL PROBABILITY IAN HACKING Makerere U~ziversityCollege A person's work are to this article. #12;312 I&? HACKING The third one, though it will appeal to logicians, might

  2. A Monotonicity Property of Binomial Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    A Monotonicity Property of Binomial Probabilities Sergiu Hart Benjamin Weiss May 11, 2008 Let n 1 of Jerusalem, 91904 Jerusalem, Israel. e-mail: hart@huji.ac.il web page: http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  3. Survival Probability of the Néel State in Clean and Disordered Systems: an Overview

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    E. J. Torres-Herrera; Lea F. Santos

    2015-06-30

    We provide an overview of our recents results about the quench dynamics of one-dimensional many-body quantum systems described by spin-1/2 models. Both cases are considered: clean chains without any disorder and disordered systems with static on-site magnetic fields. The quantity used for the analysis is the probability for finding the initial state later in time, the so-called survival probability. In the absence of random disorder, the survival probability may decay faster than exponentially. Gaussian behaviors and even the limit established by the energy-time uncertainty relation are displayed. In the presence of strong disorder, the dynamics at long-times slows down significantly and shows a powerlaw behavior. For both scenarios, we provide analytical expressions that agree very well with our numerical results.The initial state used for the illustrations is the experimentally accessible N\\'eel state.

  4. Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje; Glavan, Drazen

    2010-12-15

    As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

  5. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  6. Refinery Outages: Fall 2014

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    gasoline supply in a particular region because pipeline infrastructure, geography and marine shipping regulations constrain the amount of product that can flow among the different...

  7. Systems Outage Notification Policy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired Solar Fuel Production 1:PhysicsSyndicated Content

  8. Refinery Outages: Fall 2014

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2Feet)Thousand Cubic Feet)698 1.8732009Fall

  9. NERSC Scheduled System Outages

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory ofDid you notHeatMaRIEdioxide capture CS Seminars Calendar Home »

  10. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  11. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  12. Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:Financing Tool FitsProjectData Dashboard RutlandSTEAB's1-E Wholesale Powerand beEnergyScenario

  13. Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental JumpInformationBio-Gas Technologies, LLC JumpBiofameData BookScenario Model Jump

  14. Earthquake scenarios and seismic input for cultural heritage: applications to the cities of Rome and Florence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romanelli, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable alternative is represented by the use of the scenario earthquakes, characterized at least in terms of magnitude, distance and faulting style, and by the treatment of complex source processes. Scenario-based seismic hazard maps are purely based on geophysical and seismotectonic features of a region and take into account the occurrence frequency of earthquakes only for their classification into exceptional (catastrophic), rare (disastrous), sporadic (very strong), occasional (strong) and frequent. Therefore they may provide an upper bound for the ground motion levels to be expected for most regions of the world, more appropriate than probabilities of exceedance in view of the long time scales required for the protection of historical buildings. The neo-deterministic approach nat...

  15. Sensitivity studies for r-process nucleosynthesis in three astrophysical scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. Surman; M. Mumpower; J. Cass; I. Bentley; A. Aprahamian; G. C. McLaughlin

    2013-08-31

    In rapid neutron capture, or r-process, nucleosynthesis, heavy elements are built up via a sequence of neutron captures and beta decays that involves thousands of nuclei far from stability. Though we understand the basics of how the r-process proceeds, its astrophysical site is still not conclusively known. The nuclear network simulations we use to test potential astrophysical scenarios require nuclear physics data (masses, beta decay lifetimes, neutron capture rates, fission probabilities) for all of the nuclei on the neutron-rich side of the nuclear chart, from the valley of stability to the neutron drip line. Here we discuss recent sensitivity studies that aim to determine which individual pieces of nuclear data are the most crucial for r-process calculations. We consider three types of astrophysical scenarios: a traditional hot r-process, a cold r-process in which the temperature and density drop rapidly, and a neutron star merger trajectory.

  16. Reassessment of the BWR scram failure probability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burns, E.T.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Severe Accident Policy Statement implementation, the probabilistic quantification of accident sequence frequencies that may lead to core damage is a key element in demonstrating a plant's safety status relative to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff goals. One of the key quantitative inputs in a boiling water reactor (BWR) probabilistic risk assessment is the probability of a failure to scram. The assessment of this failure probability has been the subject of a long and continuing debate over the adequacy of available data and analytic modeling. This report provides a summary of the status of this debate, including the latest data, and provides a revision to the characterization of the failure probability originally published in NUREG 0460 and the Utility Group on Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) Petition.

  17. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  18. Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Çelik, Gültekin; Gökçe, Yasin; Y?ld?z, Murat

    2014-05-15

    Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

  19. Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California May 21.6.4 Alternative Scenario 3 ­ Patriotic Energy Independence Section 3: Developing the Scenario Model and Examining, 2002 by Rebecca Ghanadan rebeccag@socrates.berkeley.edu The Energy and Resources Group University

  20. Roadmap for Real World Internet applications Socioeconomic scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Roadmap for Real World Internet applications ­ Socioeconomic scenarios and design recommendations that is feasible to roadmap the dynamic deployment of Real World Internet applications. A multi- faceted scenarios. These scenarios are used as a roadmap for the system and architecture deployment. The application

  1. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  2. The Future of Scenarios: State Science Fiction Peter Galison

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Galison, Peter L.

    3 The Future of Scenarios: State Science Fiction Peter Galison Abstract In the heat of the Cold War begin and escalate, or be blocked. "The Future of Scenarios" sketches this history, from the first,000 years in the future. Keywords Future, futurology, 10,000 years, State science fiction, scenario, nuclear

  3. Scenario Analysis of Pedestrian Flow in Public Amir Sohrab Sahaleh

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    Scenario Analysis of Pedestrian Flow in Public Spaces Amir Sohrab Sahaleh Michel Bierlaire Bilal Farooq Antonin Danalet Flurin Silvan Hänseler STRC 2012 May 2012 #12;Scenario Analysis of Pedestrian Flow in Public Spaces May 2012 Scenario Analysis of Pedestrian Flow in Public Spaces Amir Sohrab Sahaleh

  4. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.

  5. Useful Probability Distributions Standard Normal Distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the proportion t as a variable which is continuous over the interval (0,1) For small consignments, say N Consignment of tablets, a proportion of which are suspected drugs. For large consignments, probability distribution of the proportion t which are drugs can be modeled with a beta distribution, which treats

  6. A Formulation for Minimax Probability Machine Regression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grudic, Greg

    A Formulation for Minimax Probability Machine Regression Thomas Strohmann Department of Computer Science University of Colorado, Boulder grudic@cs.colorado.edu Abstract We formulate the regression of the regression model will be within some ± bound of the true regression function. Our formulation is unique

  7. MAS275 Probability Modelling 2 Renewal Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jordan, Jonathan

    MAS275 Probability Modelling 2 Renewal Theory 2.1 Renewal processes in discrete time Renewal will model the lengths of time between renewals (e.g. the life-lengths of light bulbs) as random variables there is an occurrence called a renewal, and at the points of time between these renewals, nothing happens. For example

  8. CAPES 2013 PROBABILITY and STATISTICS Ttulo ISSN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moreira, Carlos Gustavo

    -0918 Communications Series A1 Mathematics & Statistics 1303-5911 Computational and mathematical organization theory-5483 Communications in Mathematical Physics 0010-3616 Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation 0361 communications in probability 1083-589X Electronic journal of applied statistical analysis 2070-5948 Electronic

  9. Proposed Plan for the R-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pits (643-8G, -9G, -10G) and R-Area Unknown Pits No.1, No.2, No.3 (RUNK-1, -2, -3)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mundy, S.

    2002-07-31

    The purpose of this proposed plan is to describe the preferred remedial alternative for the R-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pits (R BPOPs) and the R-Area Unknowns (RUNKs) operable unit (OU) and to provide for public involvement in the decision-making process.

  10. Cross layer design for the transmission of multimedia over wireless channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Hobin

    2011-01-01

    Table A.1: MI Outage Probabilities of BaselineN. Prasad and M.K. Varanasi. Outage Theorems for MIMO Block-E.J. Powers. Information outage probability and di- versity

  11. Performance of Non-Gaussian Distribution Based Communication and Compressed Sensing Systems /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kwon, Hwan Joon

    2013-01-01

    2.2.2 Performance Metric: Outage Probability . . . . . 2.3UPAT over the UPA . . . . . . . 2.6.1 Outage Probability20 Figure 2.6: Outage performance gain of 16-QAM over QPSK

  12. Achieving Low-Latency Communication with Feedback: from Information Theory to System Design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Tsung-Yi

    2013-01-01

    specifying a constraint on the outage probability P[E 4 ] =specifying a constraint on the outage probability p 4 on theexpected latency un- der an outage constraint. • RCSP

  13. The jamming scenario - an introduction and outlook

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrea J. Liu; Sidney R. Nagel; Wim van Saarloos; Matthieu Wyart

    2011-01-27

    The jamming scenario of disordered media, formulated about 10 years ago, has in recent years been advanced by analyzing model systems of granular media. This has led to various new concepts that are increasingly being explored in in a variety of systems. This chapter contains an introductory review of these recent developments and provides an outlook on their applicability to different physical systems and on future directions. The first part of the paper is devoted to an overview of the findings for model systems of frictionless spheres, focussing on the excess of low-frequency modes as the jamming point is approached. Particular attention is paid to a discussion of the cross-over frequency and length scales that govern this approach. We then discuss the effects of particle asphericity and static friction, the applicability to bubble models for wet foams in which the friction is dynamic, the dynamical arrest in colloids, and the implications for molecular glasses.

  14. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  15. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  16. HIPPS concepts for a subsea field scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lund, B.F.; Onshus, T.; Aaroe, R.

    1995-12-31

    This paper is based on a feasibility study investigating the possibilities of using a HIPPS (High Integrity Pressure Protection System) to protect a subsea pipeline which is not rated for full wellhead shut-in pressure. Several different HIPPS configurations have been evaluated with respect to safety, production regularity and various qualitative criteria for use in a specific subsea field scenario containing six wells. A preliminary review of the feasibility of current technology for HIPPS applications has been made. The conclusion is that a subsea HIPPS can be designed with satisfactory safety performance based on current technology. The paper also covers requirements posed to the HIPPS equipment as well as general requirements for process design and operation when a pipeline not rated for full well shut-in pressure is present.

  17. Emergence in Holographic Scenarios for Gravity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dennis Dieks; Jeroen van Dongen; Sebastian de Haro

    2015-09-10

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the `thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightfowardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  18. Engineering, Nutrient Removal, and Feedstock Conversion Evaluations of Four Corn Stover Harvest Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed L. Hoskinson; Douglas L. Karlen; Stuart J. Birrell; Corey W. Radtke; W.W. Wilhelm

    2007-02-01

    Crop residue has been identified as a near-term source of biomass for renewable fuel, heat, power, chemicals and other bio-materials. Replicated plots were established in a corn (Zea mays L.) field near Ames, IA to evaluate four harvest scenarios (low cut, high-cut top, high-cut bottom, and normal cut). A prototype one-pass harvest system was used to collect the residue samples. High-cut top and high-cut bottom samples were obtained from the same plots in two separate operations. Chemical composition, dilute acid pretreatment response, ethanol conversion efficiency and gasification parameters for each scenario were determined. Mean grain yield (10.1 Mg ha-1 dry weight) was representative of the area. The four harvest scenarios removed 6.7, 4.9, 1.7, and 5.1 Mg ha-1 of dry matter. Expressed as harvest indices (HI) the values were 0.60 for low cut, 0.66 for normal cut, and 0.61 for the total high-cut (top + bottom) scenarios, which are probably realistic for machine harvest and current hybrids. The macro-nutrient replacement value for the normal harvest scenario under our conditions was $57.36 ha-1 or $11.27 Mg-1. Harvesting stalk bottoms increased the water content, the risk of combine damage, the transportation costs, and left insufficient soil cover, while also producing a problematic feedstock. Harvesting stover at current combine height (~40 cm) would be best for farmers and ethanol producers because of better harvest speed and efficiency as well as the quality of the ethanol feedstock.

  19. The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? 2005 Diesel Engine Emissions...

  20. Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beersma, Jules

    Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Jules Beersma #12;Promotor: Prof. dr. A Onderzoekschool (BBOS) #12;Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Extreme hydro

  1. Optimum phase space probabilities from quantum tomography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roy, Arunabha S.; Roy, S. M.

    2014-01-15

    We determine a positive normalised phase space probability distribution P with minimum mean square fractional deviation from the Wigner distribution W. The minimum deviation, an invariant under phase space rotations, is a quantitative measure of the quantumness of the state. The positive distribution closest to W will be useful in quantum mechanics and in time frequency analysis. The position-momentum correlations given by the distribution can be tested experimentally in quantum optics.

  2. Pion-capture probabilities in organic molecules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, D.F.; Lewis, C.A.; O'Leary, K.

    1982-06-01

    Experimental results are presented for atomic-capture probabilities of negative pions in organic molecules. The data are analyzed in terms of atomic and molecular models. This analysis shows that the Fermi-Teller law (Z law) and its modifications do not give an adequate description of the data, but that a mesomolecular model together with hydrogen transfer contains the features essential to fit the data. Clear evidence is given for chemical effects in the pion-capture process.

  3. Law of total probability Sequences of events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adler, Robert J.

    {Second black} = P{Second red} and sum is 1! 3 #12;' & $ % Example 2: Poisonned chocolates · k chocolates in a box of N are poisoned. 2 chocolates are are drawn at random. What is the probability that the second chocolate is poisoned? P{2nd poison} = P{2nd poison|1st poison}P{1st poison} + P{2nd poison|1st OK}P{1st OK

  4. Free Energy Changes, Fluctuations, and Path Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William G. Hoover; Carol G. Hoover

    2011-04-20

    We illustrate some of the static and dynamic relations discovered by Cohen, Crooks, Evans, Jarzynski, Kirkwood, Morriss, Searles, and Zwanzig. These relations link nonequilibrium processes to equilibrium isothermal free energy changes and to dynamical path probabilities. We include ideas suggested by Dellago, Geissler, Oberhofer, and Schoell-Paschinger. Our treatment is intended to be pedagogical, for use in an updated version of our book: Time Reversibility, Computer Simulation, and Chaos. Comments are very welcome.

  5. Efficient reconstruction of transmission probabilities in a spreading process from partial observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lokhov, Andrey Y

    2015-01-01

    An important problem of reconstruction of diffusion network and transmission probabilities from the data has attracted a considerable attention in the past several years. A number of recent papers introduced efficient algorithms for the estimation of spreading parameters, based on the maximization of the likelihood of observed cascades, assuming that the full information for all the nodes in the network is available. In this work, we focus on a more realistic and restricted scenario, in which only a partial information on the cascades is available: either the set of activation times for a limited number of nodes, or the states of nodes for a subset of observation times. To tackle this problem, we first introduce a framework based on the maximization of the likelihood of the incomplete diffusion trace. However, we argue that the computation of this incomplete likelihood is a computationally hard problem, and show that a fast and robust reconstruction of transmission probabilities in sparse networks can be achi...

  6. Probability-Based Software for Grid Optimization: Improved Power System Operations Using Advanced Stochastic Optimization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-02-24

    GENI Project: Sandia National Laboratories is working with several commercial and university partners to develop software for market management systems (MMSs) that enable greater use of renewable energy sources throughout the grid. MMSs are used to securely and optimally determine which energy resources should be used to service energy demand across the country. Contributions of electricity to the grid from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, introducing complications for MMSs, which have trouble accommodating the multiple sources of price and supply uncertainties associated with bringing these new types of energy into the grid. Sandia’s software will bring a new, probability-based formulation to account for these uncertainties. By factoring in various probability scenarios for electricity production from renewable energy sources in real time, Sandia’s formula can reduce the risk of inefficient electricity transmission, save ratepayers money, conserve power, and support the future use of renewable energy.

  7. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; ,

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  8. Probability Grid: A Location Estimation Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stankovic, John A.

    estimation, grid topology, probability. I. INTRODUCTION Recent advances in micro-electro-mechanical systems

  9. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    public release; distribution I unlimited. Title: A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell...

  10. Optimization Online - The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    German Morales-España

    2014-09-16

    Sep 16, 2014 ... The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for Adaptive Robust Unit Commitment Problems. German Morales-España(gmorales ***at*** kth.se).

  11. Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berry, R. Stephen

    Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios Ariel Ferna presents a method to portray protein folding dynamics at a coarse resolution, based on a pattern

  12. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Lin...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Documentation: Data and References Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D. 09 BIOMASS FUELS BIOMASS SCENARIO MODEL; BSM; BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; MODEL; DATA; REFERENCES;...

  13. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea...

  14. Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

  15. Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Mapping Climate Change...

  16. Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melendez, M.

    2007-05-17

    This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.

  17. Emergent Universe with Exotic Matter in Brane World Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ujjal Debnath; Subenoy Chakraborty

    2011-04-09

    In this work, we have examined the emergent scenario in brane world model for phantom and tachyonic matter. For tachyonic matter field we have obtained emergent scenario is possible for closed, open and at model of the universe with some restriction of potential. For normal scalar field the emergent scenario is possible only for closed model and the result is identical with the work of Ellis et al [2], but for phantom field the emergent scenario is possible for closed, open and at model of the universe with some restriction of potential.

  18. Spin Glass Computations and Ruelle's Probability Cascades

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Louis-Pierre Arguin

    2006-08-17

    We study the Parisi functional, appearing in the Parisi formula for the pressure of the SK model, as a functional on Ruelle's Probability Cascades (RPC). Computation techniques for the RPC formulation of the functional are developed. They are used to derive continuity and monotonicity properties of the functional retrieving a theorem of Guerra. We also detail the connection between the Aizenman-Sims-Starr variational principle and the Parisi formula. As a final application of the techniques, we rederive the Almeida-Thouless line in the spirit of Toninelli but relying on the RPC structure.

  19. Sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kleibrink, Ronald Gus

    1966-01-01

    . 6105 . 5161 . 6210 9 1. 0000 1. 0000 1. 0000 1. 0000 ~ 1796 . 5217 . 7073 . 6105 . 5161 . 5889 Specifically the normalized sizes and cumulative normalized. sizes are defined. as (3. 6) pi = n. xi/X so that N (3. 7) Z p = n 1=1 (3. 8) Pi = E p J... to have given the first general theory for sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement. They used. as an estimate of the population total I for N units, the standard unbiased estimator A n (1 ' 1) I = Z (y / 77 ) i=3 where 77...

  20. Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C.E. Kessel; E.J. Synakowski; D.A. Gates; R.W. Harvey; S.M. Kaye; T.K. Mau; J. Menard; C.K. Phillips; G. Taylor; R. Wilson; the NSTX Research Team

    2004-10-28

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX [National Spherical Torus Experiment] that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high {beta} and high {beta}{sub N} inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high-beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current-drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high {beta} for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal start-up and plasma current ramp-up. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral-beam (NB) deposition profile, and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD [current drive] deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal-MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with {beta} {approx} 40% at {beta}{sub N}'s of 7.7-9, I{sub P} = 1.0 MA, and B{sub T} = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H{sub 98(y,2)} = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations.

  1. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  2. Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in China using data from a wideLBNL-2416E Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China Nan Zhou*, Masaru Nishida

  3. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios Marty Humphrey

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Mary R.

    Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios Marty Humphrey Computer Science. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing. 1 easy and secure ac- cess to the Grid's diverse resources. Infrastructure software such as Legion [6

  4. Future of the Lakes Scenarios for the Future of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    a project of the Center for Limnology University of Wisconsin Madison and the Resilience Alliance More as a type of war game analysis. Scenario planning later became a part of business planning. The oil company during and after the world oil price crises in the 1970s. More recently, scenarios have been used

  5. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  6. Some Considerations on the Probability of Nuclear Fission

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vandenbosch, Robert; Seaborg, Glenn T.

    1957-01-01

    om THE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION Robert Vandenbosch andON TRE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION O E Contents Abstractf is the fission threshold, and the nuclear temperature T is

  7. An Introduction to the Neutrosophic Probability Applied in Quantum Physics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Florentin Smarandache

    2000-10-10

    In this paper one generalizes the classical probability and imprecise probability to the notion of "neutrosophic probability" in order to be able to model Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle of a particle's behavior, Schr"dinger's Cat Theory, and the state of bosons which do not obey Pauli's Exclusion Principle (in quantum physics). Neutrosophic probability is close related to neutrosophic logic and neutrosophic set, and etymologically derived from "neutrosophy".

  8. Free Probability -classical and free CLTs ISI Bangalore, November 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sunder, V S

    Free Probability - classical and free CLTs ISI Bangalore, November 2009 V.S. Sunder Institute Probability - classical and free CLTs ISI Bangalore, November 2009 #12;NCPS Definition A non satisfying (1) = 1 V.S. Sunder IMSc, Chennai Free Probability - classical and free CLTs ISI Bangalore

  9. Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Don

    Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1.1 Introduction Definition. Statistics based on probability theory. This chapter introduces the basic concepts of probability and statistics by answering questions like: · what are the branches of statistics · what are data · how are samples selected 1

  10. How a False Probability Model Changed the World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steele, J. Michael

    How a False Probability Model Changed the World: Birth, Death, and Redemption of Black-Scholes J. Michael Steele March 12, 2008 J. Michael Steele How a False Probability Model Changed the World: Birth Probability Model Changed the World: Birth, Death #12;Introduction: The Special, The Empirical, The Miracle

  11. Lectures on probability and statistics. Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yost, G.P.

    1985-06-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. They begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probabilty of any specified outcome. They finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another. Hopefully, the reader will come away from these notes with a feel for some of the problems and uncertainties involved. Although there are standard approaches, most of the time there is no cut and dried ''best'' solution - ''best'' according to every criterion.

  12. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  13. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  14. Bayesian derivation of plasma equilibrium distribution function for tokamak scenarios and the associated Landau collision operator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Di Troia, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    A class of parametric distribution functions has been proposed in [C.DiTroia, Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion,54,2012] as equilibrium distribution functions (EDFs) for charged particles in fusion plasmas, representing supra-thermal particles in anisotropic equilibria for Neutral Beam Injection, Ion Cyclotron Heating scenarios. Moreover, the EDFs can also represent nearly isotropic equilibria for Slowing-Down $alpha$ particles and core thermal plasma populations. These EDFs depend on constants of motion (COMs). Assuming an axisymmetric system with no equilibrium electric field, the EDF depends on the toroidal canonical momentum $P_\\phi$, the kinetic energy $w$ and the magnetic moment \\mu. In the present work, the EDFs are obtained from first principles and general hypothesis. The derivation is probabilistic and makes use of the Bayes' Theorem. The bayesian argument allows us to describe how far from the prior probability distribution function (pdf), e.g. Maxwellian, the plasma is, based on the information...

  15. Mock scenarios prepare linemen for emergencies in the field

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    was taking in air through the wound. When this happens, air puts extra pressure on the lungs, and the lung can collapse. It's a life threatening scenario, but the Kalispell crew...

  16. Comprehensive Scenarios of Millennial Timescale Carbon Cycle and Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williamson, Mark

    Cyr-1 (high) Land C sink = 1.1 GtCyr-1 (low) Idealised long-term fossil fuel emissions scenarios: ~1-Science: Trevor Cooper-Chadwick, Simon Cox, John Darlington, Murtaza Gulamali, Steven Newhouse, Andrew Price, Gang

  17. Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey

    We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...

  18. Renewable Energy Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Efficiency & Renewable Energy Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report INLEXT-10-18930 December 2009 The 2005 Billion-Ton Study a (BTS) esti- mates the amount...

  19. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S....

  20. How to Identify leading indicators for scenario monitoring

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Xia, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01

    Being able to quickly adapt to changes in the business environment has been widely acknowledged as essential for sustainable success by business leaders. Scenario planning is recognized as an effective tool used to explore ...

  1. Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

  2. Microsoft Word - Scenario A w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Prepay RFO that would need to be filled out if an Interested Party were to make an Offer. While BPA has attempted to make these scenarios as accurate as possible, it is solely...

  3. Microsoft Word - Scenario C w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Prepay RFO that would need to be filled out if an Interested Party were to make an Offer. While BPA has attempted to make these scenarios as accurate as possible, it is solely...

  4. Microsoft Word - Scenario E w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Prepay RFO that would need to be filled out if an Interested Party were to make an Offer. While BPA has attempted to make these scenarios as accurate as possible, it is solely...

  5. Microsoft Word - Scenario D w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Prepay RFO that would need to be filled out if an Interested Party were to make an Offer. While BPA has attempted to make these scenarios as accurate as possible, it is solely...

  6. Microsoft Word - Scenario B w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Prepay RFO that would need to be filled out if an Interested Party were to make an Offer. While BPA has attempted to make these scenarios as accurate as possible, it is solely...

  7. CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT A White Paper from the California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Working Group

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO REGION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO REGION A White Paper from the California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center JULY 2012 CEC5002012042 Prepared for: California for useful discussion and downscaling information. For global climate model simulations, the authors

  9. Biomass Scenario Model, BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review (Presentati...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    bio-oil techno- economic analyses o Aviation biofuels and the European Union emissions trading system (ETS) o Light-duty-vehicle (LDV) ethanol-demand scenario analysis o Long...

  10. Using statistical information to improve communication in MIMO networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghosh, Sagnik

    2012-01-01

    3.2.2 Derivation of Outage Probability . . . . . . . . .vi Chapter 3 Outage-Efficient Strategies for Multiuser MIMO1.5.2 CDI-based Outage Framework . . . . . . . . . . 1.5.3

  11. Analysis and design of interference-limited wireless systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stamatiou, Konstantinos

    2009-01-01

    Figure 2.11: Outage probability vs. load for the three di?A. Conti, and O. Andrisano, “Outage evaluation for slowad hoc networks with outage constraints,” IEEE Trans. Inf.

  12. Feedback reduction techniques and fairness in multi-user MIMO broadcast channels with random beamforming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pugh, Matthew Owen

    2011-01-01

    a Threshold under Outage Constraints 3.5.2 Designing aas a function of ? outage for M = 4 and ? = 1 . . . . .probability of not being in outage calculated, the threshold

  13. Feedback, power control, and beamforming : methods for situational aware wireless networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Yichao

    2012-01-01

    1.1.4 Outage Balancing Based on Spatial Channel Statis-vii Chapter 5 Outage Balancing Based on Spatial Channel2.8: Comparison of average outage probability between ?xed

  14. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  15. Computer simulation of the probability that endangered whales will interact with oil spills

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed, M.; Jayko, K.; Bowles, A.; Anderson, E.; Leatherwood, S.

    1987-03-01

    A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration and diving-surfacing models, and an oil-spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. The oil-spill model, developed under a series of other contracts, accounts for transport and spreading behavior in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and heavy, normal, or light ice cover data sets are selected at random to provide stochastic oil-spill scenarios for whale-oil interaction simulations.

  16. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  17. Scenario Planning for Southern Company Renewable Energy Research and Innovation at the Erb Institute

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edwards, Paul N.

    Scenario Planning for Southern Company Renewable Energy Research and Innovation at the Erb, Michelle Quibell and Jennifer Ritchey, all Erb '12, developed renewable energy investment timelines scenarios. Their Master's project: "Renewable Energy Investment Strategies: A Scenario Planning Analysis

  18. 18.440 Probability and Random Variables, Spring 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheffield, Scott

    This course introduces students to probability and random variables. Topics include distribution functions, binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions. The other topics covered are uniform, exponential, ...

  19. Probability and complex quantum trajectories: Finding the missing links

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John, Moncy V., E-mail: moncyjohn@yahoo.co.u [Department of Physics, St. Thomas College, Kozhencherry, Kerala 689641 (India)

    2010-10-15

    It is shown that a normalisable probability density can be defined for the entire complex plane in the modified de Broglie-Bohm quantum mechanics, which gives complex quantum trajectories. This work is in continuation of a previous one that defined a conserved probability for most of the regions in the complex space in terms of a trajectory integral, indicating a dynamical origin of quantum probability. There it was also shown that the quantum trajectories obtained are the same characteristic curves that propagate information about the conserved probability density. Though the probability density we now adopt for those regions left out in the previous work is not conserved locally, the net source of probability for such regions is seen to be zero in the example considered, allowing to make the total probability conserved. The new combined probability density agrees with the Born's probability everywhere on the real line, as required. A major fall out of the present scheme is that it explains why in the classical limit the imaginary parts of trajectories are not observed even indirectly and particles are confined close to the real line.

  20. Derivation of the coefficient squared probability law in quantum mechanics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Casey Blood

    2013-06-02

    If one assumes there is probability of perception in quantum mechanics, then unitarity dictates that it must have the coefficient squared form, in agreement with experiment.

  1. Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating...

  2. 18.440 Probability and Random Variables, Spring 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dudley, Richard

    This course introduces students to probability and random variables. Topics include distribution functions, binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions. The other topics covered are uniform, exponential, ...

  3. Ruin probabilities under general investments and heavy-tailed claims

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hult, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the ruin problem corresponds to determining hitting probabilities for the solution to a randomly perturbed stochastic integral equation. We derive a large deviation result for the hitting probabilities that holds uniformly over a family of semimartingales and show that this result gives the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities under arbitrary investment strategies, including optimal investment strategies.

  4. Cosmological moduli problem in large volume scenario and thermal inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, Kiwoon [Department of Physics, KAIST, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Wan-Il [School of Physics, KIAS, Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Chang Sub, E-mail: kchoi@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: wipark@kias.re.kr, E-mail: csshin@apctp.org [APCTP, Pohang, Gyeongbuk 790-784 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-03-01

    We show that in a large volume scenario of type IIB string or F-theory compactifications, single thermal inflation provides only a partial solution to the cosmological problem of the light volume modulus. We then clarify the conditions for double thermal inflation, being a simple extension of the usual single thermal inflation scenario, to solve the cosmological moduli problem in the case of relatively light moduli masses. Using a specific example, we demonstrate that double thermal inflation can be realized in large volume scenario in a natural manner, and the problem of the light volume modulus can be solved for the whole relevant mass range. We also find that right amount of baryon asymmetry and dark matter can be obtained via a late-time Affleck-Dine mechanism and the decays of the visible sector NLSP to flatino LSP.

  5. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budnitz, R.J. [Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, P.R. [PRD Consulting (United States); Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H. [EQE International, Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

  6. Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abhyankara, Nikit

    2014-01-01

    scenario assumes that clean energy sources provide 40% ofscenario assumes that clean energy sources provide 60% ofcapacity in the clean energy scenarios is substantially more

  7. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...

  8. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure...

  9. Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Buskirk, Robert D.

    2004-01-01

    Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africaand renewable energy development scenarios for Eritrea, EastEritrea, East Africa in an effort to facilitate clean energy

  10. Announced Dynamic Access Probability protocol for next generation wireless networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levy, Hanoch

    Announced Dynamic Access Probability protocol for next generation wireless networks Z. NAOR #3; H probability. Keywords: wireless networks, multiple access, MAC #3; naorz@post.tau.ac.il y hanoch@cs.tau.ac.il 1 #12; 1 Introduction Wireless networks are rapidly expanding. Future satellite-based networks

  11. Probability distributions of land surface wind speeds over North America

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Aiguo

    Probability distributions of land surface wind speeds over North America Yanping He,1 Adam Hugh of the probability distributions of surface wind speeds (SWS) is essential for surface flux estimation, wind power estimation, and wind risk assessments. The two-parameter Weibull distribution is the most widely used

  12. Efficient Posterior Probability Mapping Using Savage-Dickey Ratios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Penny, Will

    Efficient Posterior Probability Mapping Using Savage- Dickey Ratios William D. Penny*, Gerard R interactive manner. Citation: Penny WD, Ridgway GR (2013) Efficient Posterior Probability Mapping Using Savage, 2013 Copyright: Ã? 2013 Penny, Ridgway. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms

  13. A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holik, Federico; Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires ; Sáenz, Manuel; Plastino, Angel

    2014-01-15

    We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.

  14. TechnologyScenarios Newsletter No. 4, October 1999.... Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have been sent to the Danish Energy Agency's Energy Research Pro- gramme. Both projects comprise- tion of the considerations behind these research themes can be found on our homepage. New Projects1 TechnologyScenarios Newsletter No. 4, October 1999.... Introduction The research programme

  15. PERSPECTIVES The next generation of scenarios for climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    PERSPECTIVES The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Richard H. Thomson1 , John P. Weyant12 & Thomas J. Wilbanks13 Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system

  16. EWO Seminar "Using IMPRESS for Supply-Chain Scenario-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Introduction. · What is IMPRESS? · Jet Fuel Supply Chain & Why it's Complex. · Scenario Generation. IMPRESS. To highlight IMPRESS, we detail a small jet fuel supply-chain problem which includes an oil-refinery producing ­ Pipeline & Marine Shipping ­ Energy Management 6 #12;Why are we unique? · IMPRESS is flowsheet-based (i

  17. Voting in Cooperative Information Agent Scenarios: Use and Abuse

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehmann, Daniel

    with its own set of fundamental questions (both the- oretical and applied). This distinctive blurringVoting in Cooperative Information Agent Scenarios: Use and Abuse Jeffrey S. Rosenschein Ariel D}@cs.huji.ac.il Abstract. Social choice theory can serve as an appropriate foundation upon which to build cooperative

  18. Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets ­ cost effective fuel in the energy system it is less costly to reduce CO2-emissions #12;Global energy system model #12;Global energy system model Optimisation #12;Global energy system model Optimisation Minimises the total cost under

  19. Primordial fluctuations of the metric in the warm inflation scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mauricio Bellini

    2000-05-16

    I consider a semiclassical expansion of the scalar field in the warm inflation scenario. I study the evolution for the fluctuations of the metric around the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker one. The formalism predicts that, in the power-law expansion universe, the fluctuations of the metric decreases with time.

  20. Stability and scenario trees for multistage stochastic programs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    ¨omisch Humboldt-University Berlin Institute of Mathematics 10099 Berlin, Germany Abstract By extending scenario trees in electricity portfolio management is reported. Key Words: Stochastic programming uncertainty, e.g., in finance, production, energy and logistics. We refer to the pioneering work of Dantzig [5

  1. Evaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electric Light Company (HELCO) Integrated Resource Plan-31 . Three different electricity infrastructureEvaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for the Big Island Prepared for the U. Following receipt of the draft report, an extensive review was conducted by Hawaii Electric Light Company

  2. Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for Multiple Harvester Powered.alarcon@upc.edu Abstract--Multi-source energy harvesters are gaining interest as a robust alternative to power wireless sensors, since the sensor node can maintain its operation regardless of the fact that one of its energy

  3. FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Salamon, Peter

    CHAPTER 1 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION MACHINES OF THE THIRD KIND Peter to a notion of staging free energy: the free energy invested in choreographing all the actors of a biochemical \\offprintinfo{(Title, Edition)}{(Author)} at the beginning of your document. 1 #12;2 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING

  4. Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Yasser Al-Saleh, Paul Upham and Khaleel Malik October 2008 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 125 #12;Renewable Energy compromising those of future generations. Renewable energy technologies, in particular, are becoming

  5. Hiring Scenario Employee You have interviewed with a local company.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allan, Vicki H.

    Hiring Scenario Employee You have interviewed with a local company. The hiring manager calls you and offers you a job at $40,000 yearly base salary plus benefits. This is a great company a family history of depression. Depending on if you have another job offer, if you are currently working

  6. Type Ia Supernova Scenarios and the Hubble Sequence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    P. Ruiz-Lapuente; A. Burkert; R. Canal

    1995-05-19

    The dependence of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) rate on galaxy type is examined for three currently proposed scenarios: merging of a Chandrasekhar--mass CO white dwarf (WD) with a CO WD companion, explosion of a sub--Chandrasekhar mass CO WD induced by accretion of material from a He star companion, and explosion of a sub--Chandrasekhar CO WD in a symbiotic system. The variation of the SNe Ia rate and explosion characteristics with time is derived, and its correlation with parent population age and galaxy redshift is discussed. Among current scenarios, CO + He star systems should be absent from E galaxies. Explosion of CO WDs in symbiotic systems could account for the SNe Ia rate in these galaxies. The same might be true for the CO + CO WD scenario, depending on the value of the common envelope parameter. A testable prediction of the sub--Chandrasekhar WD model is that the average brightness and kinetic energy of the SN Ia events should increase with redshift for a given Hubble type. Also for this scenario, going along the Hubble sequence from E to Sc galaxies SNe Ia events should be brighter on average and should show larger mean velocities of the ejecta. The observational correlations strongly suggest that the characteristics of the SNe Ia explosion are linked to parent population age. The scenario in which WDs with masses below the Chandrasekhar mass explode appears the most promising one to explain the observed variation of the SN Ia rate with galaxy type together with the luminosity--expansion velocity trend.

  7. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  8. System capacity of FTDMA cellular systems G. Caire 1 , R. Knopp 2 and P. Humblet 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Humblet, Pierre A.

    maximum outage probability. Outage is defined as the event that the mutual information of the interference on a typical urban mobile environment. Keywords --- Cellular system capacity, block­fading channels, outage are obtained as special cases. System capacity is constrained by the maximum allowed outage probability. We

  9. Power and Particle Exhaust in Tokamaks: Integration of Plasma Scenarios with Plasma Facing Materials and Components

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Power and Particle Exhaust in Tokamaks: Integration of Plasma Scenarios with Plasma Facing Materials and Components

  10. Initial Low Recycling Improving Confinement and Current Drive in Advanced Tokamak (AT) and Hybrid Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Initial Low Recycling Improving Confinement and Current Drive in Advanced Tokamak (AT) and Hybrid Scenarios

  11. Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.; Webster, K.

    2009-10-28

    Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.

  12. Refinery Outages: First Half 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2Feet)Thousand Cubic Feet)698

  13. outages | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (UtilityMichigan)data book Homefuelleasingoutages Home Graham7781's

  14. OpenEI Community - outages

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsourceII JumpQuarterly Smart Grid Data available for download onst,/0Thoughts

  15. Refinery Outages: First Half 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets160Product:7a.CORPORATION /Analysis &

  16. Lower and upper probabilities in the distributive lattice of subsystems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Vourdas

    2014-10-08

    The set of subsystems of a finite quantum system (with variables in Z(n)) together with logical connectives, is a distributive lattice. With regard to this lattice, the (where P(m) is the projector to) obeys a supermodularity inequality, and it is interpreted as a lower probability in the sense of the Dempster-Shafer theory, and not as a Kolmogorov probability. It is shown that the basic concepts of the Dempster-Shafer theory (lower and upper probabilities and the Dempster multivaluedness) are pertinent to the quantum formalism of finite systems.

  17. MATH 471 PROBABILITY UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Faber, Xander

    MATH 471 ­ PROBABILITY UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA FALL 2012 Professor Info: Dr. Xander Faber 404 Physical Sciences Building xander@math.hawaii.edu www.math.hawaii.edu/xander/ Office Hours -- MW 10

  18. Review of Literature for Model Assisted Probability of Detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Ryan M.; Crawford, Susan L.; Lareau, John P.; Anderson, Michael T.

    2014-09-30

    This is a draft technical letter report for NRC client documenting a literature review of model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for potential application to nuclear power plant components for improvement of field NDE performance estimations.

  19. Toward a Full Probability Model of Edges in Natural Images

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    linear decompositions of an image into basis images. Our work is inspired by David Marr's ideas [17 called \\primal sketch". The basic questions we ask are: What are the probability distributions of Marr

  20. Probability 1 computation with chemical reaction networks Rachel Cummings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Probability 1 computation with chemical reaction networks Rachel Cummings David Doty David Soloveichik§ Abstract The computational power of stochastic chemical reaction networks (CRNs) varies signifi computation. How can chemical reactions process information, make decisions, and solve problems? A natural

  1. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  2. The resonance absorption probability function for neutron and multiplicative integral

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. D. Rusov; V. A. Tarasov; S. I. Kosenko; S. A. Chernegenko

    2012-08-05

    The analytical approximations for the moderating neutrons flux density like Fermi spectra, widely used in reactor physics, involve the probability function for moderating neutron to avoid the resonant absorption obtained using some restrictive assumptions regarding the acceptable resonances width. By means of multiplicative integral (Volterra integral) theory for a commutative algebra an analytical expression for the probability function is obtained rigorously without any restrictive assumptions.

  3. Calculating the probability of detecting radio signals from alien civilizations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvat, Marko

    2006-01-01

    Although it might not be self-evident, it is in fact entirely possible to calculate the probability of detecting alien radio signals by understanding what types of extraterrestrial radio emissions can be expected and what properties these emissions can have. Using the Drake equation as the obvious starting point, and logically identifying and enumerating constraints of interstellar radio communications can yield the probability of detecting a genuine alien radio signal.

  4. Calculating the probability of detecting radio signals from alien civilizations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marko Horvat

    2007-07-14

    Although it might not be self-evident, it is in fact entirely possible to calculate the probability of detecting alien radio signals by understanding what types of extraterrestrial radio emissions can be expected and what properties these emissions can have. Using the Drake equation as the obvious starting point, and logically identifying and enumerating constraints of interstellar radio communications can yield the probability of detecting a genuine alien radio signal.

  5. Linear feature selection and the probability of misclassification 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darcey, Louise Wilson

    1974-01-01

    ) (Member) May 1974 ABSTRACT Linear Feature Selecti. on and the Probability of Misclassification. (May 1974) Louise Wilson Darcey, B. S. , University of Texas at Austin Chairman of Advisory Committee: Dr. L. F. Guseman, Jr. A classifi. cation... procedure for n-dimensional normally distributed observation vectors which belong to one of two populations is described. In particular, a computational procedure is presented for finding a lxn vector B which minimizes the probability...

  6. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  7. Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky

    2008-09-11

    We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.

  8. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti

  9. Characterizing common cause closedness of quantum probability theories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yuichiro Kitajima; Miklos Redei

    2015-03-15

    We prove new results on common cause closedness of quantum probability spaces, where by a quantum probability space is meant the projection lattice of a non-commutative von Neumann algebra together with a countably additive probability measure on the lattice. Common cause closedness is the feature that for every correlation between a pair of commuting projections there exists in the lattice a third projection commuting with both of the correlated projections and which is a Reichenbachian common cause of the correlation. The main result we prove is that a quantum probability space is common cause closed if and only if it has at most one measure theoretic atom. This result improves earlier ones published in Z. GyenisZ and M. Redei Erkenntnis 79 (2014) 435-451. The result is discussed from the perspective of status of the Common Cause Principle. Open problems on common cause closedness of general probability spaces $(\\mathcal{L},\\phi)$ are formulated, where $\\mathcal{L}$ is an orthomodular bounded lattice and $\\phi$ is a probability measure on $\\mathcal{L}$.

  10. Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open Energy

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onRAPID/Geothermal/Exploration/ColoradoRemsenburg-Speonk,Sage ResourcesFlorida:SatconInformation Scenario Evaluation,

  11. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  12. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 2, Part 3: Internal Events Appendices I and J

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitehead, D.; Staple, B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-06-01

    This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probablistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143.

  13. Some Applications of the Fractional Poisson Probability Distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nick Laskin

    2011-11-17

    Physical and mathematical applications of fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have discovered and developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers. Appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been applied to evaluate skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A new representation of Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been obtained. A representation of Schlafli polynomials in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. A new representations of Mittag-Leffler function involving fractional Bell polynomials and fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been discovered. Fractional Stirling numbers of the first kind have been introduced and studied. Two new polynomial sequences associated with fractional Poisson probability distribution have been launched and explored. The relationship between new polynomials and the orthogonal Charlier polynomials has also been investigated. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of quantum optics, the theory of combinatorial numbers and the theory of orthogonal polynomials of discrete variable.

  14. Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Internal Heating 12 6.5 Damage Criteria and Outage 13 6.6 Outage Scenarios 13 7 AWARENESS AND PREPARATION and we become more and more dependent on electricity, the risk of a catastrophic outage increases of the potential for long-term, widespread power outage, the hazard posed by geomagnetic storms is one of the most

  15. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc

  16. Modified GBIG Scenario as a Successful Alternative for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nozari, Kourosh

    2009-01-01

    We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.

  17. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate “High-Yield Scenario” (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  18. A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saugata Mitra; Subhajit Saha; Subenoy Chakraborty

    2015-03-25

    A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the frame work of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and modified Chaplygin gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated.

  19. Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi

    2009-09-02

    We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.

  20. Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History View New PagesSustainableGlynn County,Solar Jump to: navigation, searchInitiative Scenario Database

  1. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoopButtePowerEdisto Electric Coop, Incsource History ViewEnergy System and Scenario

  2. Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource HistoryScenarios Towards 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL

  3. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-01-01

    of Alternative Fossil Fuel Price and Carbon Regulationthe past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We findfossil price scenarios, respectively, but in both cases these are integrated scenarios developed by altering numerous input assumptions, not just fuel price

  4. Delaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource Standard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delaware, University of

    Delaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource Standard prepared for the Office of the Secretary and development, environmental justice, conservation and renewable energy options, integrated resource planning

  5. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario...

  6. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...

  7. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wei, Max

    2014-01-01

    California Average Hourly Generation Mix by Fuel, ImportsBase Scenario Average Hourly Generation Mix by Fuel withinCalifornia Average Hourly Generation Mix by Fuel, Imports

  8. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

  9. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell

  10. The role of vector fields in modified gravity scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Koyama, Kazuya; Khosravi, Nima E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2013-11-01

    Gravitational vector degrees of freedom typically arise in many examples of modified gravity models. We start to systematically explore their role in these scenarios, studying the effects of coupling gravitational vector and scalar degrees of freedom. We focus on set-ups that enjoy a Galilean symmetry in the scalar sector and an Abelian gauge symmetry in the vector sector. These symmetries, together with the requirement that the equations of motion contain at most two space-time derivatives, only allow for a small number of operators in the Lagrangian for the gravitational fields. We investigate the role of gravitational vector fields for two broad classes of phenomena that characterize modified gravity scenarios. The first is self-acceleration: we analyze in general terms the behavior of vector fluctuations around self-accelerating solutions, and show that vanishing kinetic terms of vector fluctuations lead to instabilities on cosmological backgrounds. The second phenomenon is the screening of long range fifth forces by means of Vainshtein mechanism. We show that if gravitational vector fields are appropriately coupled to a spherically symmetric source, they can play an important role for defining the features of the background solution and the scale of the Vainshtein radius. Our general results can be applied to any concrete model of modified gravity, whose low-energy vector and scalar degrees of freedom satisfy the symmetry requirements that we impose.

  11. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  12. Isospin violating dark matter in Stückelberg portal scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victor Martin-Lozano; Miguel Peiro; Pablo Soler

    2015-03-05

    Hidden sector scenarios in which dark matter (DM) interacts with the Standard Model matter fields through the exchange of massive Z' bosons are well motivated by certain string theory constructions. In this work, we thoroughly study the phenomenological aspects of such scenarios and find that they present a clear and testable consequence for direct DM searches. We show that such string motivated St\\"uckelberg portals naturally lead to isospin violating interactions of DM particles with nuclei. We find that the relations between the DM coupling to neutrons and protons for both, spin-independent (fn/fp) and spin-dependent (an/ap) interactions, are very flexible depending on the charges of the quarks under the extra U(1) gauge groups. We show that within this construction these ratios are generically different from plus and minus 1 (i.e. different couplings to protons and neutrons) leading to a potentially measurable distinction from other popular portals. Finally, we incorporate bounds from searches for dijet and dilepton resonances at the LHC as well as LUX bounds on the elastic scattering of DM off nucleons to determine the experimentally allowed values of fn/fp and an/ap.

  13. Ultra High Energy Neutrino Signature in Top-Down Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberto Aloisio

    2006-12-22

    Neutrinos are the best candidates to test the extreme Universe and ideas beyond the Standard Model of particle Physics. Once produced, neutrinos do not suffer any kind of attenuation by intervening radiation fields like the Cosmic Microwave Background and are not affected by magnetic fields. In this sense neutrinos are useful messengers from the far and young Universe. In the present paper we will discuss a particular class of sources of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays introduced to explain the possible excess of events with energy larger than the Graisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin cut-off. These sources, collectively called top-down, share a common feature: UHE particles are produced in the decay or annihilation of superheavy, exotic, particles. As we will review in the present paper, the largest fraction of Ultra High Energy particles produced in the top-down scenario are neutrinos. The study of these radiation offers us a unique opportunity to test the exotic mechanisms of the top-down scenario.

  14. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kodra, Evan A [ORNL; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  15. The matter bounce scenario in loop quantum cosmology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson-Ewing, Edward, E-mail: wilson-ewing@cpt.univ-mrs.fr [Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS UMR 7332, CPT, 13288 Marseille (France)

    2013-03-01

    In the matter bounce scenario, a dust-dominated contracting space-time generates scale-invariant perturbations that, assuming a nonsingular bouncing cosmology, propagate to the expanding branch and set appropriate initial conditions for the radiation-dominated era. Since this scenario depends on the presence of a bounce, it seems appropriate to consider it in the context of loop quantum cosmology where a bouncing universe naturally arises. For a pressureless collapsing universe in loop quantum cosmology, the predicted power spectrum of the scalar perturbations after the bounce is scale-invariant and the tensor to scalar ratio is negligibly small. A slight red tilt can be given to the scale-invariance of the scalar perturbations by a scalar field whose equation of state is P = ???, where ? is a small positive number. Then, the power spectrum for tensor perturbations is also almost scale-invariant with the same red tilt as the scalar perturbations, and the tensor to scalar ratio is expected to be r ? 9 × 10{sup ?4}. Finally, for the predicted amplitude of the scalar perturbations to agree with observations, the critical density in loop quantum cosmology must be of the order ?{sub c} ? 10{sup ?9}?{sub Pl}.

  16. Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity V.A.Malyshev \\Lambda September 17, 1998 Abstract In this paper we study stochastic dynamics which leaves quantum gravity equilibrium science and biology. At the same time the paper can serve an intro­ duction to quantum gravity

  17. Probability Density Function Estimation Using Orthogonal Forward Regression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Sheng

    Probability Density Function Estimation Using Orthogonal Forward Regression S. Chen, X. Hong and C estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression tech- nique is adopted procedure. Two examples are used to demonstrate the ability of this regression- based approach

  18. MAS 108 Probability I Notes 1 Autumn 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, R. A.

    .) If I toss a coin three times and record the results of the three tosses, the sample space is S = {HHH' and B the event `tails on last throw'. Then A = {HHH,HHT,HTH,THH}, B = {HHT, it is {HHH}). If A = {a} is a simple event, then the proba- bility of A is just the probability

  19. Rutgers Applied Probability Conference Department of Management Science & Information Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2nd Rutgers Applied Probability Conference Department of Management Science & Information Systems and the Management Sciences, New Jersey Chapter Stochastic Methods in Information Technology December 6 in memory of Research and the Management Sciences, New Jersey Chapter Stochastic Methods in Information Technology Ben

  20. Probability Distribution of Low Streamflow Series in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vogel, Richard M.

    estimates are crucial for: 1 water quality man- agement; 2 issuing or renewing National Pollution Discharge Elimination System NPDES permits; 3 planning water sup- plies, hydropower, cooling and irrigation systems the frequency of low streamflow series can be adequately modeled using a particular probability distribution

  1. What is the probability of a thermodynamical transition?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Álvaro M. Alhambra; Jonathan Oppenheim; Christopher Perry

    2015-04-07

    If the second law of thermodynamics forbids a transition from one state to another, then it is still possible to make the transition happen by using a sufficient amount of work. But if we do not have access to this amount of work, can the transition happen probabilistically? In the thermodynamic limit, this probability tends to zero, but here we find that for finite-sized systems, it can be finite. We compute the maximum probability of a transition or a thermodynamical fluctuation from any initial state to any final state, and show that this maximum can be achieved for any final state which is block-diagonal in the energy eigenbasis. We also find upper and lower bounds on this transition probability, in terms of the work of transition. As a bi-product, we introduce a finite set of thermodynamical monotones related to the thermo-majorization criteria which governs state transitions, and compute the work of transition in terms of them. The trade-off between the probability of a transition, and any partial work added to aid in that transition is also considered. Our results have applications in entanglement theory, and we find the amount of entanglement required (or gained) when transforming one pure entangled state into any other.

  2. STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR AUTOMATED EDDY CURRENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR AUTOMATED EDDY CURRENT NONDESTRUCTIVE for Nondestructive Evaluation, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA Abstract: Eddy current inspection is widely response collected using our motion controlled eddy current inspection system, are used in the analysis

  3. Time-of-arrival probabilities for general particle detectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Charis Anastopoulos; Ntina Savvidou

    2012-07-16

    We develop a general framework for the construction of probabilities for the time of arrival in quantum systems. The time of arrival is identified with the time instant when a transition in the detector's degrees of freedom takes place. Thus, its definition is embedded within the larger issue of defining probabilities with respect to time for general quantum transitions. The key point in our analysis is that we manage to reduce the problem of defining a quantum time observable to a mathematical model where time is associated to a transition from a subspace of the Hilbert space of the total system to its complementary subspace. This property makes it possible to derive a general expression for the probability for the time of transition, valid for any quantum system, with the only requirement that the time of transition is correlated with a definite macroscopic record. The framework developed here allows for the consideration of any experimental configuration for the measurement of the time of arrival and it also applies to relativistic systems with interactions described by quantum field theory. We use the method in order to describe time-of-arrival measurements in high-energy particle reactions and for a rigorous derivation of the time-integrated probabilities in particle oscillations.

  4. Neural Network Probability Estimation for Broad Coverage Parsing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    (Ratnaparkhi, 1999; Collins, 1999; Charniak, 2001) are based on a history-based probability model (Black et al-crafted finite set of features to represent the unbounded parse history (Ratna- parkhi, 1999; Collins, 1999 Sim- ple Synchrony Networks (SSNs) (Lane and Hen- derson, 2001; Henderson, 2000). Because

  5. Grinstead and Snell's Introduction to Probability The CHANCE Project1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Harrison Huibin

    to Probability, 2nd edition', published by the American Mathematical So- ciety, Copyright (C) 2003 Charles M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 11.4 Fundamental Limit Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447 11.5 Mean First of chance. Problems like those Pascal and Fermat solved continued to influence such early researchers

  6. The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Callender, Craig

    The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics1 The Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics is capable of illustrating, by itself, virtually every philosophical and foundational comes in many forms, both stochastic and deterministic. The other reason is that quantum mechanics

  7. Quantum mechanical reaction probabilities with a power series Green's function

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miller, William H.

    Quantum mechanical reaction probabilities with a power series Green's function Scott M. Auerbach 1993) We present a new method to compute the energy Green's function with absorbing boundary conditions be superior to the fast Fourier transform method for reactive scattering. We apply the resulting power series

  8. Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Implications of Personal Probability for Induction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barrett, Jeffrey A.

    Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Implications of Personal Probability for Induction Author(s): Leonard J. Savage Source: The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 64, No. 19, Sixty-Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Philosophical Association, Eastern Division (Oct. 5, 1967), pp. 593-607 Published by: Journal of Philosophy, Inc

  9. Word learning, phonological short-term memory, phonotactic probability and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Prahlad

    Word learning, phonological short-term memory, phonotactic probability and long-term memory of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA Word learning is studied in a multitude of ways, and it is often for thinking about various types of studies of word learning. We then review a number of themes that in recent

  10. A converse Lyapunov theorem for asymptotic stability in probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hespanha, João Pedro

    1 A converse Lyapunov theorem for asymptotic stability in probability A.R. Teel, J.P. Hespanha, A. Subbaraman Abstract A converse Lyapunov theorem is established for discrete-time stochastic systems with non implies the existence of a continuous Lyapunov function, smooth outside of the attractor, that decreases

  11. Spin flip probability of electron in a uniform magnetic field

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hammond, Richard T. [Department of Physics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina and Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27703 (United States)

    2012-03-19

    The probability that an electromagnetic wave can flip the spin of an electron is calculated. It is assumed that the electron resides in a uniform magnetic field and interacts with an incoming electromagnetic pulse. The scattering matrix is constructed and the time needed to flip the spin is calculated.

  12. Math 30530: Introduction to Probability, Fall 2012 Midterm Exam I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Galvin, David

    ), brewing the elixir of life (40% of the times) and creating the Philosopher's stone (40% of the time). When he tries to turn lead into gold, the result always ends with a explosion; when he brews the elixir conclude is the probability that he has just missed a demonstration of brewing the elixir of life? Solution

  13. A Probability Analysis for Frequent Itemset Mining Algorithms Nele Dexters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Antwerpen, Universiteit

    M Research Group, University of Antwerp, Belgium Since the introduction of the Frequent Itemset Mining (FIMA Probability Analysis for Frequent Itemset Mining Algorithms Nele Dexters PhD student, ADRe, Mining Association Rules between Sets of Items in Large Databases, in Proc. ACM SIGMOD Conference

  14. CLIMATE RISK COMMUNICATION: EFFECTS OF COST, TIMING, AND PROBABILITY OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spirtes, Peter

    Chapter 2 CLIMATE RISK COMMUNICATION: EFFECTS OF COST, TIMING, AND PROBABILITY OF CLIMATE of Technology, Mandi, India 2 Dynamic Decision Making Laboratory, Department of Social and Decision Sciences the psychology of policymaking on climate change. Yet, experiencing climate change consequences in movies

  15. THE FOURIERSERIES METHOD FOR INVERTING TRANSFORMS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitt, Ward

    Ward Whitt 900 Hammond Road AT&T Bell Laboratories Ridgewood, NJ 07450­2908 Room 2C­178 Murray Hill, NJ; THE FOURIER­SERIES METHOD FOR INVERTING TRANSFORMS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS by Joseph Abate Ward Whitt 900 Hammond Road AT&T Bell Laboratories Ridgewood, NJ 07450­2908 Room 2C­178 Murray Hill, NJ 07974

  16. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS GENERATION: DETERMINING THE MOST PROBABLE SUBSET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Los Angeles, University of

    , of a scientific production line in which data is fed into one end and knowledge comes out of the other. Gauss for a partially automated hypothesis formulation process. The proposed hypothesis formulation process generates, the one that seems more probable should always be chosen (1713). Because of the automated nature

  17. Soldiers, robots and local population -modeling cross-cultural values in a peacekeeping scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bölöni, Ladislau L

    not about general trends but about the ongoing scenario. The model had been designed to provide input as part of a training or assessment tool. 2. The Market Checkpoint Scenario To anchor our modeling work in peacekeeping missions. The scenario takes place at a military checkpoint at the entrance of a busy market. We

  18. Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

    2007-01-01

    On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS® computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some components heated up beyond their service temperatures, the staff determined that there would be no significant release as a result of the fire for the NAC LWT and similar casks.

  19. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  20. Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

    2003-02-26

    With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

  1. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin, Eduardo; Tomas, Rogelio; Bambade, Philip; Kuroda, Shigeru; Okugi, Toshiyuki; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; Urakawa, Junji; Parker, Brett; Seryi, Andrei; White, Glen; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  2. Scenarios For The ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin E.; Parker B.; Tomas R. Bambade Kuroda S. Okugi T. Tauchi T. Terunuma N. Urakawa J. Seryi A. White G. Woodley M.

    2010-05-23

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  3. A Look At Three Different Scenarios for Bulge Formation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rychard J. Bouwens; Laura Cayon; Joseph Silk

    1998-12-10

    In this paper, we present three qualitatively different scenarios for bulge formation: a secular evolution model in which bulges form after disks and undergo several central starbursts, a primordial collapse model in which bulges and disks form simultaneously, and an early bulge formation model in which bulges form prior to disks. We normalize our models to the local z=0 observations of de Jong & van der Kruit (1994) and Peletier & Balcells (1996) and make comparisons with high redshift observations. We consider model predictions relating directly to bulge-to-disk properties. As expected, smaller bulge-to-disk ratios and bluer bulge colors are predicted by the secular evolution model at all redshifts, although uncertainties in the data are currently too large to differentiate strongly between the models.

  4. ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

    2000-11-01

    During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

  5. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  6. Probability distribution functions in the finite density lattice QCD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Ejiri; Y. Nakagawa; S. Aoki; K. Kanaya; H. Saito; T. Hatsuda; H. Ohno; T. Umeda

    2012-12-04

    We study the phase structure of QCD at high temperature and density by lattice QCD simulations adopting a histogram method. We try to solve the problems which arise in the numerical study of the finite density QCD, focusing on the probability distribution function (histogram). As a first step, we investigate the quark mass dependence and the chemical potential dependence of the probability distribution function as a function of the Polyakov loop when all quark masses are sufficiently large, and study the properties of the distribution function. The effect from the complex phase of the quark determinant is estimated explicitly. The shape of the distribution function changes with the quark mass and the chemical potential. Through the shape of the distribution, the critical surface which separates the first order transition and crossover regions in the heavy quark region is determined for the 2+1-flavor case.

  7. Systematics of fusion probability in "hot" fusion reactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ning Wang; Junlong Tian; Werner Scheid

    2011-12-28

    The fusion probability in "hot" fusion reactions leading to the synthesis of super-heavy nuclei is investigated systematically. The quasi-fission barrier influences the formation of the super-heavy nucleus around the "island of stability" in addition to the shell correction. Based on the quasi-fission barrier height obtained with the Skyrme energy-density functional, we propose an analytical expression for the description of the fusion probability, with which the measured evaporation residual cross sections can be reproduced acceptably well. Simultaneously, some special fusion reactions for synthesizing new elements 119 and 120 are studied. The predicted evaporation residual cross sections for 50Ti+249Bk are about 10-150fb at energies around the entrance-channel Coulomb barrier. For the fusion reactions synthesizing element 120 with projectiles 54Cr and 58Fe, the cross sections fall to a few femtobarns which seems beyond the limit of the available facilities.

  8. What Determines the Sticking Probability of Water Molecules on Ice?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Batista, Enrique; Ayotte, Patrick; Bilic , Ante; Kay, Bruce D.; Jonsson, Hannes

    2005-11-22

    We present both experimental and theoretical studies of the sticking of water molecules on ice. The sticking probability is unity over a wide range in energy (0.5 eV–1.5 eV) when the molecules are incident along the surface normal, but drops as the angle increases at high incident energy. This is explained in terms of the strong orientational dependence of the interaction of the molecule with the surface and the time required for the reorientation of the molecule. The sticking probability is found to scale with the component of the incident velocity in the plane of the surface, unlike the commonly assumed normal or total energy scaling.

  9. Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stauffer, William R.; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-02-17

    , similar to humans, monkeys displayed an inverted S-shaped probability weighting function with a crossover point below p? 0.5. Materials andMethods Animals and experimental setup. Twomale rhesusmonkeys (Macacamu- latta) were used for these studies (9... - portional to the SD of a binomial distribution, ?? p ? ?1 ? p?, and po- sition LR indicated the position (right or left) of the cues on the screen. Each regression coefficient was standardized by multiplying the raw re- gression coefficient with the ratio...

  10. Using percolation techniques to estimate interwell connectivity probability 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Weiqiang

    2009-06-02

    results for fluid travel time between locations in a percolation model, we developed a method to estimate interwell connectivity. Three parameters are needed to use this approach: the sandbody occupied probability sand p , the dimensionless reservoir... and can estimate the interwell connectivity accurately for thin intervals with sand p in the 60% to 80% range. The proposed method requires that the reservoir interval for evaluation be sufficiently thin so that 2D percolation results can...

  11. Simple and Compact Expressions for Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hisakazu Minakata; Stephen J Parke

    2015-05-07

    We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric Delta m^2 scales. Unlike previous works, we use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. Using this perturbation theory we derive extremely compact expressions for the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter. We find, for example, that the $\

  12. Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

    2009-05-01

    The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

  13. What is the probability that radiation caused a particular cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voelz, G.L.

    1983-01-01

    Courts, lawyers, health physicists, physicians, and others are searching for a credible answer to the question posed in the title of this paper. The cases in which the question arises frequently stem from an individual that has cancer and they, or their next-of-kin, are convinced that a past radiation exposure - usually small - is responsible for causing it. An arithmetic expression of this problem is simple: the probability of causation by the radiation dose in question is equal to the risk of cancer from the radiation dose divided by the risk of cancer from all causes. The application of risk factors to this equation is not so simple. It must involve careful evaluation of the reliability of and variations in risk coefficients for development of cancer due to radiation exposure, other carcinogenic agents, and natural causes for the particular individual. Examination of our knowledge of these various factors indicates that a large range in the answers can result due to the variability and imprecision of the data. Nevertheless, the attempts to calculate and the probability that radiation caused the cancer is extremely useful to provide a gross perspective on the probability of causation. It will likely rule in or out a significant number of cases despite the limitations in our understandings of the etiology of cancer and the risks from various factors. For the remaining cases, a thoughtful and educated judgment based on selected data and circumstances of the case will also be needed before the expert can develop and support his opinion.

  14. Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patch, S.K.

    1994-04-01

    In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requires finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 {times} 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 {times} 2 {times} 2 problem, is solved.

  15. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-01-01

    Impacts of Electricity Transmission Scenario Analysis forImpacts of Electricity Transmission Scenario Analysis forhas also commissioned Electricity Transmission Research and

  16. Visualization of Tokamak Operational Spaces Through the Projection of Data Probability Distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Visualization of Tokamak Operational Spaces Through the Projection of Data Probability Distributions

  17. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  18. An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

  19. Pre-big bang scenario and the WZW model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marcel Jacon

    2015-06-09

    Extensive studies of pre-big bang scenarios for Bianchi-I type universe have been made, at various approximation levels. Knowing the solution of the equations for the post-big bang universe, the symmetries of the equations (time reversal and scale dual transformations) allow the study of pre-big bang solutions. However, the proposed solutions are unable to explain the actually observed acceleration of the expantion of the universe.Calculating the $\\beta $ equations for the Non-Linear Sigma model, at the first loop approximation and imposing conformal invariance at this level, lead to equations of motion that simply state that the curvature must be nil, which in turn allows the utilization of groups to solve the $\\beta $ equations. This is what is done in the Weiss-Zumino-Witten (WZW) model. In this article, I will show that using the WZW model on $SU_2$, some of the difficulties encountered in the determination of the pre and post big-bang solutions are eliminated. Combining the general results obtained with the $\\Lambda $CDM parameters lead to realistic solutions for the evolution of the universe, giving an explanation to the actually observed acceleration of the expansion in terms ot the dilation field $\\phi $(t).

  20. A first linear cosmological structure formation scenario under extended gravity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    X. Hernandez; M. A. Jimenez

    2013-07-02

    The inability of primordial baryonic density fluctuations, as observed in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), to grow into the present day astronomical structures is well established, under Newtonian and Einsteinian gravity. It is hence customary to assume the existence of an underlying dark matter component with density fluctuations, $\\Delta(M)$, having amplitudes much larger than what CMB observations imply for the baryons. This is in fact one of the recurrent arguments used in support of the dark matter hypothesis. In this letter we prove that the same extended theory of gravity which has been recently shown to accurately reproduce gravitational lensing observations, in absence of any dark matter, and which in the low velocity regime converges to a MONDian force law, implies a sufficiently amplified self-gravity to allow purely baryonic fluctuations with amplitudes in accordance with CMB constraints to naturally grow into the $z=0$ astrophysical structures detected. The linear structure formation scenario which emerges closely resembles the standard concordance cosmology one, as abundantly calibrated over the last decade to match multiple observational constraints at various redshifts. However, in contrast with what occurs in the concordance cosmology, this follows not from a critical dependence on initial conditions and the fine tuning of model parameters, but from the rapid convergence of highly arbitrary initial conditions onto a well defined $\\Delta(M,z)$ attractor solution.