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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Proof of the outage probability conjecture for MISO channels  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In Telatar 1999, it is conjectured that the covariance matrices minimizing the outage probability for MIMO channels with Gaussian fading are diagonal with either zeros or constant values on the diagonal. In the MISO setting, this is equivalent to conjecture that the Gaussian quadratic forms having largest tale probability correspond to such diagonal matrices. We prove here the conjecture in the MISO setting.

Abbe, Emmanuel; Telatar, Emre

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 62, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2014 699 Outage Probability in  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

transform of a cumulative distribution and (ii) a reference link power gain-based framework which exploits the distribution of the fading power gain between the reference transmitter and receiver. The outage probability the outage probability at any location inside either a disk or polygon region. The analysis illustrates

Zhou, Xiangyun "Sean"

3

Outage Probability of MISO Broadcast Systems with Noisy Channel Side Information  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Outage Probability of MISO Broadcast Systems with Noisy Channel Side Information Alon Shalev output (MISO) systems. However, these schemes generally require perfect channel information) of a linear zero forcing transmitter, operating in a fading MISO broadcast channel. We consider a rectangular

Lim, Teng Joon

4

Exact Outage Probability Analysis for Relay-aided Underlay Cognitive Communications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

--Outage probability, cognitive radio, spectrum shar- ing, underlay, QoS, primary system, secondary system. I. INTRODUCTION In response to the ever-growing stress put on the wireless spectrum medium, cognitive radio (CR secondary (unlicensed) users (SUs) to share the same licensed spectrum band with the primary users (PUs

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

5

Confidence intervals for state probabilities of system capacity outages and for LOLP  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONFID"NC. , INTERVALS FO- S'TATE PROBABILITIES OF SYSTEM CAPACITY OUTAGES AND FOR LOLP A Thcsi. , bv ATHANASIOS STASINOS Submi. tted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1974 Major Subject: Electrical Engineering CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR STA1'E PROBABILITIES OF STSTEM CAPACITY OVTAGES AND FOR LOLP A Thesis by ATHANASIOS STASINOS Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman...

Stasinos, Athanasios

1974-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Outage Probability of the Gaussian MIMO Free-Space Optical Channel with PPM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The free-space optical channel has the potential to facilitate inexpensive, wireless communication with fiber-like bandwidth under short deployment timelines. However, atmospheric effects can significantly degrade the reliability of a free-space optical link. In particular, atmospheric turbulence causes random fluctuations in the irradiance of the received laser beam, commonly referred to as scintillation. The scintillation process is slow compared to the large data rates typical of optical transmission. As such, we adopt a quasi-static block fading model and study the outage probability of the channel under the assumption of orthogonal pulse-position modulation. We investigate the mitigation of scintillation through the use of multiple lasers and multiple apertures, thereby creating a multiple-input multiple output (MIMO) channel. Non-ideal photodetection is also assumed such that the combined shot noise and thermal noise are considered as signal-independent Additive Gaussian white noise. Assuming perfect re...

Letzepis, Nick

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Outage Rate Regions for the MISO Interference Channel: Definitions and Interpretations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider the slow-fading two-user multiple-input single-output (MISO) interference channel (IC), where the receivers treat the interference as additive Gaussian noise. We study the rate points that can be achieved, allowing a non-zero outage probability. The points which meet the outage probability specification constitute a so-called outage rate region. There exist several definitions of the outage rate regions for the IC, as for the broadcast and the multiple-access channels. We give four definitions for the outage region of the MISO IC. The definitions differ on whether the rates are declared in outage jointly or individually and whether there is instantaneous or statistical channel state information (CSI) at the transmitters. For the statistical CSI scenario, we discuss how to find the outage probabilities in closed form. We provide interpretations of the definitions and compare the corresponding regions via analytical and numerical results.

Lindblom, Johannes; Larsson, Erik G

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Outage Constrained Robust Transmit Optimization for Multiuser MISO Downlinks: Tractable Approximations by Conic Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper we consider a probabilistic signal-to-interference and-noise ratio (SINR) constrained problem for transmit beamforming design in the presence of imperfect channel state information (CSI), under a multiuser multiple-input single-output (MISO) downlink scenario. In particular, we deal with outage-based quality-of-service constraints, where the probability of each user's SINR not satisfying a service requirement must not fall below a given outage probability specification. The study of solution approaches to the probabilistic SINR constrained problem is important because CSI errors are often present in practical systems and they may cause substantial SINR outages if not handled properly. However, a major technical challenge is how to process the probabilistic SINR constraints. To tackle this, we propose a novel relaxation- restriction (RAR) approach, which consists of two key ingredients-semidefinite relaxation (SDR), and analytic tools for conservatively approximating probabilistic constraints. Th...

Wang, Kun-Yu; Chang, Tsung-Hui; Ma, Wing-Kin; Chi, Chong-Yung

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Outage Capacity and Code Design for Dying Channels  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The outage exponents are also studied to reveal how fast the outage probability improves over the number of sub-channels. Besides the information-theoretical results, we also study a practical coding scheme for the dying binary erasure channel (DBEC), which...

Zeng, Meng

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

10

Scheduled System Outages  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary)morphinanInformation Desert Southwest RegionatSearchScheduled System Outages NERSC Scheduled System Outages NERSC

11

On Possible Influence of Space Weather on Agricultural Markets: Necessary Conditions and Probable Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...

Pustilnik, Lev

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' mining alters ground-water regime,'' water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features.

Tierney, M.S.

1991-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF AN ADVANCED OUTAGE CONTROL CENTER TO IMPROVE OUTAGE COORDINATION, PROBLEM RESOLUTION, AND OUTAGE RISK MANAGEMENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. Managing NPP outages is a complex and difficult task due to the large number of maintenance and repair activities that are accomplished in a short period of time. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information, and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status, and periodic briefings in the OCC. It is a difficult task to maintain current the information related to outage progress and discovered conditions. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across, and out of the OCC. The use of these technologies will allow information to be shared electronically, providing greater amounts of real-time information to the decision makers and allowing OCC coordinators to meet with supporting staff remotely. Passively monitoring status electronically through advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer-based procedures, and automated work packages will reduce the current reliance on manually reporting progress. The use of these technologies will also improve the knowledge capture and management capabilities of the organization. The purpose of this research is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an advanced outage control center (AOCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This technical report for industry implementation outlines methods and considerations for the establishment of an AOCC. This report provides a process for implementation of a change management plan, evaluation of current outage processes, the selection of technology, and guidance for the implementation of the selected technology. Methods are presented for both adoption of technologies within an existing OCC and for a complete OCC replacement, including human factors considerations for OCC design and setup.

Germain, Shawn St; Farris, Ronald; Whaley, April M; Medema, Heather; Gertman, David

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

Hase, Kevin R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boyer, Brian D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

15

Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.

Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Coordinated Beamforming for Multiuser MISO Interference Channel under Rate Outage Constraints  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper studies the coordinated beamforming design problem for the multiple-input single-output (MISO) interference channel, assuming only channel distribution information (CDI) at the transmitters. For a given requirement on the rate outage probability for receivers, we aim to maximize the system utility (e.g., the weighted sum rate, weighted proportional fairness rate, and the weighed harmonic mean rate) subject to the rate outage constraints and individual power constraints. The outage constraints, however, lead to a complicated, nonconvex structure for the considered beamforming design problem and make the optimization problem difficult to handle. While this nonconvex optimization problem can be solved in an exhaustive search manner, this brute-force approach is only feasible when the number of transmitter-receiver pairs is small. For a system with a large number of transmitter-receiver pairs, computationally efficient alternatives are necessary. The focus of this paper is hence on the design of such e...

Li, Wei-Chiang; Lin, Che; Chi, Chong-Yung

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Outage management and health physics issue, 2007  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troy Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.

Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

2007-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

18

Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 May 10, 2012 (0 Comments) Due to a scheduled maintenance for the License...

19

Outage management and health physics issue, 2006  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: A design with experience for the U.S., by Michael J. Wallace, Constellation Generation Group; Hope to be among the first, by Randy Hutchinson, Entergy Nuclear; Plans to file COLs in 2008, by Garry Miller, Progress Energy; Evolution of ICRP's recommendations, by Lars-Erik Holm, ICRP; European network on education and training in radiological protection, by Michele Coeck, SCK-CEN, Belgium; Outage managment: an important tool for improving nuclear power plant performance, by Thomas Mazour and Jiri Mandula, IAEA, Austria; and Plant profile: Exploring new paths to excellence, by Anne Thomas, Exelon Nuclear.

Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

2006-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

20

Advanced Outage and Control Center: Strategies for Nuclear Plant Outage Work Status Capabilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The research effort is a part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a research and development program sponsored by the Department of Energy, performed in close collaboration with industry to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS Program serves to help the US nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The Outage Control Center (OCC) Pilot Project was directed at carrying out the applied research for development and pilot of technology designed to enhance safe outage and maintenance operations, improve human performance and reliability, increase overall operational efficiency, and improve plant status control. Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Unfortunately, many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. They depend heavily upon large teams of staff, multiple work and coordination locations, and manual administrative actions that require large amounts of paper. Previous work in human reliability analysis suggests that many repetitive tasks, including paper work tasks, may have a failure rate of 1.0E-3 or higher (Gertman, 1996). With between 10,000 and 45,000 subtasks being performed during an outage (Gomes, 1996), the opportunity for human error of some consequence is a realistic concern. Although a number of factors exist that can make these errors recoverable, reducing and effectively coordinating the sheer number of tasks to be performed, particularly those that are error prone, has the potential to enhance outage efficiency and safety. Additionally, outage management requires precise coordination of work groups that do not always share similar objectives. Outage managers are concerned with schedule and cost, union workers are concerned with performing work that is commensurate with their trade, and support functions (safety, quality assurance, and radiological controls, etc.) are concerned with performing the work within the plants controls and procedures. Approaches to outage management should be designed to increase the active participation of work groups and managers in making decisions that closed the gap between competing objectives and the potential for error and process inefficiency.

Gregory Weatherby

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary. 2. Report the outage, call. Campus-wide telephone communications will continue to operate during a power outage on standard phones. If emergency assistance is required, call UC Security on Extn 6111 and state "POWEr OUTAgE" or mobile 0800 823

Hickman, Mark

22

Technology Integration Initiative In Support of Outage Management  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Often, command and control during outages is maintained in the outage control center where many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. This research reports on the use of advanced integrating software technologies and hand held mobile devices as a means by which to reduce cycle time, improve accuracy, and enhance transparency among outage team members. This paper reports on the first phase of research supported by the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program that is performed in close collaboration with industry to examine the introduction of newly available technology allowing for safe and efficient outage performance. It is thought that this research will result in: improved resource management among various plant stakeholder groups, reduced paper work, and enhanced overall situation awareness for the outage control center management team. A description of field data collection methods, including personnel interview data, success factors, end-user evaluation and integration of hand held devices in achieving an integrated design are also evaluated. Finally, the necessity of obtaining operations cooperation support in field studies and technology evaluation is acknowledged.

Gregory Weatherby; David Gertman

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Resolving piping analysis issues to minimize impact on installation activities during refueling outage at nuclear power plants  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While it is required to maintain piping code compliance for all phases of installation activities during outages at a nuclear plant, it is equally essential to reduce challenges to the installation personnel on how plant modification work should be performed. Plant betterment activities that incorporate proposed design changes are continually implemented during the outages. Supporting analysis are performed to back these activities for operable systems. The goal is to reduce engineering and craft man-hours and minimize outage time. This paper outlines how plant modification process can be streamlined to facilitate construction teams to do their tasks that involve safety related piping. In this manner, installation can proceed by minimizing on the spot analytical effort and reduce downtime to support the proposed modifications. Examples are provided that permit performance of installation work in any sequence. Piping and hangers including the branch lines are prequalified and determined operable. The system is up front analyzed for all possible scenarios. The modification instructions in the work packages is flexible enough to permit any possible installation sequence. The benefit to this approach is large enough in the sense that valuable outage time is not extended and on site analytical work is not required.

Bhavnani, D. [Public Service Electric and Gas Co., Hancocks Bridge, NJ (United States)

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Development of Methodologies for Technology Deployment for Advanced Outage Control Centers that Improve Outage Coordination, Problem Resolution and Outage Risk Management  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provides the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The long term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the U.S. will depend upon maintaining high capacity factors, avoiding nuclear safety issues and reducing operating costs. The slow progress in the construction on new nuclear power plants has placed in increased importance on maintaining the output of the current fleet of nuclear power plants. Recently expanded natural gas production has placed increased economic pressure on nuclear power plants due to lower cost competition. Until recently, power uprate projects had steadily increased the total output of the U.S. nuclear fleet. Errors made during power plant upgrade projects have now removed three nuclear power plants from the U.S. fleet and economic considerations have caused the permanent shutdown of a fourth plant. Additionally, several utilities have cancelled power uprate projects citing economic concerns. For the past several years net electrical generation from U.S. nuclear power plants has been declining. One of few remaining areas where significant improvements in plant capacity factors can be made is in minimizing the duration of refueling outages. Managing nuclear power plant outages is a complex and difficult task. Due to the large number of complex tasks and the uncertainty that accompanies them, outage durations routinely exceed the planned duration. The ability to complete an outage on or near schedule depends upon the performance of the outage management organization. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status and periodic briefings in the OCC. Much of the information displayed in OCCs is static and out of date requiring an evaluation to determine if it is still valid. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across and out of the OCC. Additionally, advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer based procedures and electronic work packages can be leveraged to improve the availability of real time status to outage managers.

Shawn St. Germain; Ronald Farris; Heather Medeman

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Parametric probability distributions in reliability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Parametric probability distributions in reliability F.P.A. Coolen Department of Mathematical parametric probability distributions which are frequently used in reliability. We present some main as models for specific reliability scenarios. Keywords: Binomial distribution, Exponential distribution

Coolen, Frank

26

SAMPLE RESULTS FROM MCU SOLIDS OUTAGE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has received several solid and liquid samples from MCU in an effort to understand and recover from the system outage starting on April 6, 2014. SRNL concludes that the presence of solids in the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) is the likely root cause for the outage, based upon the following discoveries ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the scrub contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? An archived sample from Tank 49H taken last year was shown to contain a fine precipitate of sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 drain pipe from extraction contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium aluminosilicate ? A liquid sample from the SSFT was shown to have elevated levels of oxalate anion compared to the expected concentration in the feed Visual inspection of the SSFT indicated the presence of precipitated or transferred solids, which were likely also in the Salt Solution Receipt Tank (SSRT). The presence of the solids coupled with agitation performed to maintain feed temperature resulted in oxalate solids migration through the MCU system and caused hydraulic issues that resulted in unplanned phase carryover from the extraction into the scrub, and ultimately the strip contactors. Not only did this carryover result in the Strip Effluent (SE) being pushed out of waste acceptance specification, but it resulted in the deposition of solids into several of the contactors. At the same time, extensive deposits of aluminosilicates were found in the drain tube in the extraction contactor #1. However it is not known at this time how the aluminosilicate solids are related to the oxalate solids. The solids were successfully cleaned out of the MCU system. However, future consideration must be given to the exclusion of oxalate solids into the MCU system. There were 53 recommendations for improving operations recently identified. Some additional considerations or additional details are provided below as recommendations. ? From this point on, IC-Anions analyses of the DSSHT should be part of the monthly routine analysis in order to spot negative trends in the oxalate leaving the MCU system. Care must be taken to monitor the oxalate content to watch for sudden precipitation of oxalate salts in the system. ? Conduct a study to optimize the cleaning strategy at ARP-MCU through decreasing the concentration or entirely eliminating the oxalic acid. ? The contents of the SSFT should remain unagitated. Routine visual observation should be maintained to ensure there is not a large buildup of solids. As water with agitation provided sufficient removal of the solids in the feed tank, it should be considered as a good means for dissolving oxalate solids if they are found in the future. ? Conduct a study to improve prediction of oxalate solubility in salt batch feed materials. As titanium and mercury have been found in various solids in this report, evaluate if either element plays a role in oxalate solubility during processing. ? Salt batch characterization focuses primarily on characterization and testing of unaltered Tank 21H material; however, non-typical feeds are developed through cleaning, washing, and/or sump transfers. As these solutions are processed through MCU, they may precipitate solids or reduce performance. Salt batch characterization and testing should be expanded to encompass a broader range of feeds that may be processed through ARPMCU.

Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Oji, L.; Coleman, C.; Poirier, M.

2014-09-22T23:59:59.000Z

27

Lassoing Line Outages in the Smart Power Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fast and accurate unveiling of power line outages is of paramount importance not only for preventing faults that may lead to blackouts, but also for routine monitoring and control tasks of the smart grid, including state estimation and optimal power flow. Existing approaches are either challenged by the \\emph{combinatorial complexity} issues involved, and are thus limited to identifying single- and double-line outages; or, they invoke less pragmatic assumptions such as \\emph{conditionally independent} phasor angle measurements available across the grid. Using only a subset of voltage phasor angle data, the present paper develops a near real-time algorithm for identifying multiple line outages at the affordable complexity of solving a quadratic program via block coordinate descent iterations. The novel approach relies on reformulating the DC linear power flow model as a \\emph{sparse} overcomplete expansion, and leveraging contemporary advances in compressive sampling and variable selection using the least-abso...

Zhu, Hao

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Responding to Power Outages and Floods  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

People and the environment can be harmed if a home's onsite wastewater treatment system does not work properly after a flood or power outage. This publication explains the steps to take after such an event to get the system back into service. 4 pp...

Lesikar, Bruce J.; Mechell, Justin; Alexander, Rachel

2008-10-23T23:59:59.000Z

29

Collaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Collaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen Institute for Energy Technology Os Allé 7 1777 Halden, Norway +47 69212242 lars.hurlen@hrp.no Bojana Petkov Institute for Energy for Energy Technology Os Allé 7 1777 Halden, Norway +47 69215028 oystein.veland@hrp.no Gisle Andresen

Deussen, Oliver

30

PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE Energy Technology Perspectives 2006 ETP 2006 areas #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE Technology Assumptions Scenario2 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy Technology

31

Self-Organization of a Mesh Hierarchy for Smart Grid Monitoring in Outage Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

communication infrastructure in the smart grid is not robust for data collection from smart meters during/generating elements in the smart environment to a gateway. We envision this gateway to be a smart meter. The collection of smart-meters and collectors form the smart grid Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) [1

Tague, Patrick

32

Steam turbine-generator outage interval extension  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the industry`s growing competitive climate, utilities are seeking ways to tap the economic benefits to be derived from maximizing intervals between major turbine-generator (T-G) inspections and overhauls--while ensuring protection of these assets. EPRI and others have developed a substantial body of technology which addresses many of the condition assessment issues that underlie T-G inspection and overhaul decisions. Examples include remaining life determination of critical components such as rotors and blades. While the initial focus of this technology had previously been to support T-G run-repair-replace decision making, this technology can also serve as a basis for run-inspect decisions. This paper describes EPRI`s initiative to develop and implement a T-G Health Management System. By providing key status reports reflecting the on-line health of critical components, in terms of life consumption, performance degradation and probability of failure, this system will provide a means to justify extending T-G operations between inspections and overhauls.

McCloskey, T.H. [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Pollard, M. [Carolina Power & Light Company, Raleigh, NC (United States); Dewey, R.; Roemer, M. [Stress Technology Inc., Rochester, NY (United States)

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Analysis and Computation of the Outage Probability of Discrete-Input Block-Fading Channels  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK guillen@ieee.org Lars K. Rasmussen Institute for Telecommunications Research University of South Australia SA 5095, Australia lars.rasmussen@unisa.edu.au Abstract-- THIS PAPER

Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

35

Scenario Jedi  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "ofEarlyEnergyDepartment of Energy U.S. Department ofSANFuelSavannah RiverScenario Solar PV Jobs and

36

Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of transmission lines. We estimate from observed utility data how transmission line outages propagate, and obtain is consistent with the utility data by using it to estimate the distribution of the total number of lines statistical behavior of cascading transmission line outages from standard utility data that records the times

Dobson, Ian

37

Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning *  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning * W of the torus, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium. The first phase of the program to reduce the free tritium consisted of direct flowthrough of room air

38

Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning* W, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium. The first phase of the program to reduce the free tritium consisted of direct flowthrough of room air

39

Annual Steam System Maintenance Outage (2014) Beginning on Sunday, June 8th  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Annual Steam System Maintenance Outage (2014) Beginning on Sunday, June 8th at 12:00pm (Noon), the Central Utility Plant (CUP), which supplies steam service to over 100 buildings on the Newark campus, will be shut down for the annual Steam System Maintenance Outage. This effort is necessary each year to ensure

Firestone, Jeremy

40

OTRA-THS MAC to reduce Power Outage Data Collection Latency in a smart meter network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure by the electric utilities poses unique communication challenges, particularly as the number of meters per aggregator increases. During a power outage, a smart meter tries to report it instantaneously to the electric utility. In a densely populated residential/industrial locality, it is possible that a large number of smart meters simultaneously try to get access to the communication network to report the power outage. If the number of smart meters is very high of the order of tens of thousands (metropolitan areas), the power outage data flooding can lead to Random Access CHannel (RACH) congestion. Several utilities are considering the use of cellular network for smart meter communications. In 3G/4G cellular networks, RACH congestion not only leads to collisions, retransmissions and increased RACH delays, but also has the potential to disrupt the dedicated traffic flow by increasing the interference levels (3G CDMA). In order to overcome this problem, in this paper we propose a Time Hierarchical Scheme (THS) that reduces the intensity of power outage data flooding and power outage reporting delay by 6/7th, and 17/18th when compared to their respective values without THS. Also, we propose an Optimum Transmission Rate Adaptive (OTRA) MAC to optimize the latency in power outage data collection. The analysis and simulation results presented in this paper show that both the OTRA and THS features of the proposed MAC results in a Power Outage Data Collection Latency (PODCL) that is 1/10th of the 4G LTE PODCL.

Garlapati, Shravan K [ORNL] [ORNL; Kuruganti, Phani Teja [ORNL] [ORNL; Buehrer, Richard M [ORNL] [ORNL; Reed, Jeffrey H [ORNL] [ORNL

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Status Report on the Development of Micro-Scheduling Software for the Advanced Outage Control Center Project  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet, refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependent activities that are difficult to coordinate. Finding ways to improve refueling outage performance while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a R&D program which works with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current NPPs. The Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, this INL R&D project is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report describes specific recent efforts to develop a capability called outage Micro-Scheduling. Micro-Scheduling is the ability to allocate and schedule outage support task resources on a sub-hour basis. Micro-Scheduling is the real-time fine-tuning of the outage schedule to react to the actual progress of the primary outage activities to ensure that support task resources are optimally deployed with the least amount of delay and unproductive use of resources. The remaining sections of this report describe in more detail the scheduling challenges that occur during outages, how a Micro-Scheduling capability helps address those challenges, and provides a status update on work accomplished to date and the path forward.

Shawn St. Germain; Kenneth Thomas; Ronald Farris; Jeffrey Joe

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Nuclear Safety Risk Management in Refueling Outage of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NPP is used to planning maintenance, in-service inspection, surveillance test, fuel handling and design modification in the refueling outage; the operator response capability will be reduced plus some of the plant systems out of service or loss of power at this time. Based on 8 times refueling outage experiences of the Qinshan NPP, this article provide some good practice and lesson learned for the nuclear safety risk management focus at four safety function areas of Residual Heat Removal Capability, Inventory Control, Power availability and Reactivity control. (authors)

Meijing Wu; Guozhang Shen [Qinshan Nuclear power company (China)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: · Two additional energy efficiency scenarios. · Carbon adder impact on coal plant dispatch. · Resource CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY REPORT THIRD ADDENDUM

44

Steam turbine maintenance and repair technology: Reducing planned-outage costs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The North American Electric Reliability Council (NAERC) reported that the average loss of equivalent availability per outage for a major fossil turbine overhaul is 323,000 MW-HR. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Generation and Storage Division, is in the first phase of a major research project to reduce the duration and/or frequency of steam turbine maintenance outages. This project consists of an assessment of the current state-of-the-art turbine maintenance and repair techniques and technologies. It is based on a review of current turbine maintenance practices of the US, European, Japanese, and Australian utility industries. Emphasized are maintenance and repair activities that have the most significant impact on outage duration or frequency. Twenty-six key turbine maintenance activities and the current best techniques were identified for use by utility maintenance personnel. Overall outage durations could be reduced if the duration of these activities were shortened or if they were performed more effectively. Recommended projects for development of advanced steam turbine maintenance technology were identified. 29 refs., 46 figs., 9 tabs.

Grace, H.P.; McClintock, M. (General Physics Corp., Columbia, MD (USA)); Lamping, G. (Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (USA))

1990-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

MonteCarlo and Analytical Methods for Forced Outage Rate Calculations of Peaking Units  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pessimistic results owing to its time spent in the reserve shut down state. Therefore the normal two state representation of a generating unit is not adequate. A four state model was proposed by an IEEE committee to calculate the forced outage rate...

Rondla, Preethi 1988-

2012-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

46

96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

power grid up to 21st century standards. I do not believe the American people would--or should96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 T THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF August 2003 underscored the vulnerabil- ity of our nation's power grid and the fact that this vital yet complex infrastruc

Amin, S. Massoud

47

Asymptotic Outage Performance of Power Allocation in Block-Fading Channels  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.nguyen@postgrads.unisa.edu.au Albert Guill´en i F`abregas Department of Engineering University of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK guillen@ieee.org Lars K. Rasmussen Institute for Telecommunications Research University of South Australia SA 5095, Australia lars.rasmussen@unisa.edu.au Abstract-- We characterize the asymptotic outage

Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

48

Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage Criterion and beamforming codebooks for limited-feedback multiple-input single-output (MISO) wireless systems. The problem focuses on optimal design of single-user limited-feedback systems over multiple-input single-output (MISO

Yu, Wei

49

An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid Wayes Tushar§, Jian--In this paper an efficient energy curtailment scheme is studied, which enables the power users of a smart grid. Considering the advantages of a two-way communications infrastructure for any future smart grid, a non

Durrani, Salman

50

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

51

A convex approximation approach to Weighted Sum Rate Maximization of Multiuser MISO Interference Channel under outage constraints  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper considers weighted sum rate maximization of multiuser multiple-input single-output interference channel (MISO-IFC) under outage constraints. The outage-constrained weighted sum rate maximization problem is a nonconvex optimization problem and is difficult to solve. While it is possible to optimally deal with this problem in an exhaustive search manner by finding all the Pareto-optimal rate tuples in the (discretized) outage-constrained achievable rate region, this approach, however, suffers from a prohibitive computational complexity and is feasible only when the number of transmitter-receive pairs is small. In this paper, we propose a convex optimization based approximation method for efficiently handling the outage-constrained weighted sum rate maximization problem. The proposed approximation method consists of solving a sequence of convex optimization problems, and thus can be efficiently implemented by interior-point methods. Simulation results show that the proposed method can yield near-optim...

Li, Wei-Chiang; Lin, Che; Chi, Chong-Yung

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Outages of electric power supply resulting from cable failures Boston Edison Company system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Factual data are provided regarding 5 electric power supply interruptions that occurred in the Boston Metropolitan area during April to June, 1979. Common to all of these outages was the failure of an underground cable as the initiating event, followed by multiple equipment failures. There was significant variation in the voltage ratings and types of cables which failed. The investigation was unable to delineate a single specific Boston Edison design operating or maintenance practice that could be cited as the cause of the outages. After reviewing the investigative report the following actions were recommended: the development and implementation of a plan to eliminate the direct current cable network; develop a network outage restoration plan; regroup primary feeder cables wherever possible to minimize the number of circuits in manholes, and to separate feeders to high load density areas; develop a program to detect incipient cable faults; evaluate the separation of the north and south sections of Back Bay network into separate networks; and, as a minimum, install the necessary facilities to make it possible to re-energize one section without interfering with the other; and re-evaluate the cathodic protection scheme where necessary. (LCL)

None

1980-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Probability Primer 1 Running head: PROBABILITY PRIMER  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

provides the opportunity to draw upon work in computer science, engineering, mathematics, and statisticsProbability Primer 1 Running head: PROBABILITY PRIMER A Primer on Probabilistic Inference Thomas L. Griffiths Department of Psychology University of California, Berkeley Alan Yuille Department of Statistics

Yuille, Alan L.

54

Physical Probability Patrick Maher  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Physical Probability Patrick Maher University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign October 13, 2007 ABSTRACT. By "physical probability" I mean the empirical concept of probability in or- dinary language-extreme physical probabilities are compatible with determin- ism. Two principles, called specification

Fitelson, Branden

55

MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Blackouts in power grids typically result from cascading failures. The key importance of the electric power grid to society encourages further research into sustaining power system reliability and developing new methods to manage the risks of cascading blackouts. Adequate software tools are required to better analyze, understand, and assess the consequences of the cascading failures. This paper presents MATCASC, an open source MATLAB based tool to analyse cascading failures in power grids. Cascading effects due to line overload outages are considered. The applicability of the MATCASC tool is demonstrated by assessing the robustness of IEEE test systems and real-world power grids with respect to cascading failures.

Koç, Yakup; Araujo, Nuno A M; Warnier, Martijn

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Outage Log  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas Conchas recoveryLaboratorySpeedingOptimizing I/O performanceOther

57

Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)

Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard

2006-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

58

Olkiluoto 1 and 2 - Plant efficiency improvement and lifetime extension-project (PELE) implemented during outages 2010 and 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) is a non-listed public company founded in 1969 to produce electricity for its stakeholders. TVO is the operator of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. TVO follows the principle of continuous improvement in the operation and maintenance of the Olkiluoto plant units. The PELE project (Plant Efficiency Improvement and Lifetime Extension), mainly completed during the annual outages in 2010 and 2011, and forms one part of the systematic development of Olkiluoto units. TVO maintains a long-term development program that aims at systematically modernizing the plant unit systems and equipment based on the latest technology. According to the program, the Olkiluoto 1 and Olkiluoto 2 plant units are constantly renovated with the intention of keeping them safe and reliable, The aim of the modernization projects is to improve the safety, reliability, and performance of the plant units. PELE project at Olkiluoto 1 was done in 2010 and at Olkiluoto 2 in 2011. The outage length of Olkiluoto 1 was 26 d 12 h 4 min and Olkiluoto 2 outage length was 28 d 23 h 46 min. (Normal service-outage is about 14 days including refueling and refueling-outage length is about seven days. See figure 1) The PELE project consisted of several single projects collected into one for coordinated project management. Some of the main projects were as follows: - Low pressure turbines: rotor, stator vane, casing and turbine instrumentation replacement. - Replacement of Condenser Cooling Water (later called seawater pumps) pumps - Replacement of inner isolation valves on the main steam lines. - Generator and the generator cooling system replacement. - Low voltage switchgear replacement. This project will continue during future outages. PELE was a success. 100 TVO employees and 1500 subcontractor employees participated in the project. The execution of the PELE projects went extremely well during the outages. The replacement of the low pressure turbines and seawater pumps improved the efficiency of the plant units, and a power increase of nearly 20 MW was achieved at both plant units. PELE wonderfully manifests one of the strategic goals of our company; developing the competence of our in-house personnel by working in projects. (authors)

Kosonen, M.; Hakola, M. [Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, F- 27160 Eurajoki (Finland)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

PROBABILITY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Gaussian probability density function. This book is printed on acid-free paper. The paper in this book Laura Boucher This book was set in Times Roman by the authors and printed and bound by Quebecor is to learn how to solve practical problems. For the majority, the mathematical logic of probability theory is

Kozick, Richard J.

60

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and bioenergy markets are modelled with the aim to conduct quantitative analyses on the production and costsBiofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André

62

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

63

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

Mankamo, T. (Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland)); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Plant Outage Time Savings Provided by Subcritical Physics Testing at Vogtle Unit 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The most recent core reload design verification physics testing done at Southern Nuclear Company's (SNC) Vogtle Unit 2, performed prior to initial power operations in operating cycle 12, was successfully completed while the reactor was at least 1% {delta}K/K subcritical. The testing program used was the first application of the Subcritical Physics Testing (SPT) program developed by the Westinghouse Electric Company LLC. The SPT program centers on the application of the Westinghouse Subcritical Rod Worth Measurement (SRWM) methodology that was developed in cooperation with the Vogtle Reactor Engineering staff. The SRWM methodology received U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval in August of 2005. The first application of the SPT program occurred at Vogtle Unit 2 in October of 2005. The results of the core design verification measurements obtained during the SPT program demonstrated excellent agreement with prediction, demonstrating that the predicted core characteristics were in excellent agreement with the actual operating characteristics of the core. This paper presents an overview of the SPT Program used at Vogtle Unit 2 during operating cycle 12, and a discussion of the critical path outage time savings the SPT program is capable of providing. (authors)

Cupp, Philip [Southern Nuclear Company (United States); Heibel, M.D. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (United States)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Probability: Theory and examples  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Some times the lights are shining on me. Other times I can barely see. Lately it occurs to me what a long strange trip its been. Grateful Dead In 1989 when the first edition of the book was completed, my sons David and Greg were 3 and 1, and the cover picture showed the Dow Jones at 2650. The last twenty years have brought many changes but the song remains the same. The title of the book indicates that as we develop the theory, we will focus our attention on examples. Hoping that the book would be a useful reference for people who apply probability in their work, we have tried to emphasize the results that are important for applications, and illustrated their use with roughly 200 examples. Probability is not a spectator sport, so the book contains almost 450 exercises to challenge the reader and to deepen their understanding. The fourth edition has two major changes (in addition to a new publisher): (i) The book has been converted from TeX to LaTeX. The systematic use of labels should eventually eliminate problems with references to other points in the text. In

Rick Durrett

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Probabilities for Solar Siblings  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

69

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

70

Scenario Reduction and Scenario Tree Construction for Power Management Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to hydro units, and fuel and electricity prices). For most practical problems the optimization problem and optimization techniques for the generation and trading of electric power under uncertainty. Utilities partic optimization models for the operation and plan- ning of power utilities use scenarios to deal with uncertainty

Römisch, Werner

71

STATISTICS AND PHILOSOPHY OF PROBABILITY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STATISTICS AND PHILOSOPHY OF PROBABILITY -- SIX DEGREES OF SEPARATION Krzysztof Burdzy University of Washington Krzysztof Burdzy Philosophy of probability #12;The search for certainty The search for certainty. On the clash of science and philosophy of probability. Preface, Table of Contents and Introduction

Burdzy, Krzysztof "Chris"

72

Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, science, and engineering students. Other than the basic probability theory, my goal was to in- cludeProbability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes Peter Olofsson A Wiley-Interscience Publication had been teaching a course on calculus-based probability and statistics mainly for mathematics

Olofsson, Peter

73

Description of the Scenario Machine  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.html

V. M. Lipunov; K. A. Postnov; M. E. Prokhorov; A. I. Bogomazov

2007-04-11T23:59:59.000Z

74

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

Dougherty, Daniel J.

75

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

Krishnamurthi, Shriram

76

Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the scenario workshop participants subsequently served on the libraries’ strategic-planning groups. As the Steering Committee began conducting an environmental scan with a detailed SWOT analysis, the earlier scenario activities appeared to have both informed...

Church-Duran, Jennifer; Ludwig, Deborah

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Scenario generation and applications in energy planning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Aug 1, 2012 ... Keywords: stochastic programming, multistage, energy planning, scenario tree construction. Category 1: Stochastic Programming. Citation: ...

Michal Kaut

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Organizational scenarios for the use of learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects Henry Hermans and Fred de Vries October 2006 Learning objects in practice 2 #12;Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects page 2 of 22 Colophon Organizational scenario's for the use of learning objects Learning objects in practice 2

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

80

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Grandy, W. T. Jr. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82070 (United States)

2009-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

2013-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

82

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

2012-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

83

Winds of change?: Projections of near-surface winds under climate change scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a downscaling technique to generate probability distributions of wind speeds at sites in northern Europe on renewable energy resources including wind-power. 2. Data [4] Ten coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs) fromWinds of change?: Projections of near-surface winds under climate change scenarios S. C. Pryor,1 J

Pryor, Sara C.

84

EWO Meeting March 2014 Multi-Stage Scenario Tree Generation via  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

price · Production yield · Unplanned plant shutdown ­ Stochastic Programming with Recourse is a powerful and probabilities · Use of historical data and forecasts (data-driven approach) · Quality of scenario tree quality.) ­ Historical data and forecasts of product demand (uncertain parameter) · Objectives ­ Generate multi

Grossmann, Ignacio E.

85

California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways indo not include the alternative energy pathways (such asmodeling to investigate alternative energy supply strategies

McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

87

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Scenario Analysis: Quantitative...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Scenario Analysis Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010) R. Braccio, P. Finch, and R. Frazier Booz Allen...

88

California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Vehicle Conventional and Alternative Fuel Response Simulatormodified to include alternative fuel demand scenarios (whichvehicle adoption and alternative fuel demand) later in the

McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Optimization Online - Dynamic Generation of Scenario Trees  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sep 3, 2014 ... Abstract: We present new algorithms for the dynamic generation of scenario trees for multistage stochastic optimization. The different methods ...

G. Ch. Pflug

2014-09-03T23:59:59.000Z

90

How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

MACHINE MONITORING USING PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MACHINE MONITORING USING PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS AND SYSTEM OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS Stephen M a discrete-part production machine, with the objective of effectively determining when to shut the machine analysis: a) There is an underlying time interval that characterizes the operation of the machine, most

Pollock, Stephen

92

Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability: a top-down anytime algorithm for estimating prior, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2 poole@cs.ubc.ca March 17, 1993 Abstract Probabilistic Horn abduction logically. The relationship be- tween probabilistic Horn abduction and logic programming is at two levels

Poole, David

93

Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

://journals.cambridge.org/PES Additional services for Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences: Email alerts: Click here Electric Power Service with Irreversible Early Notification. Probability in the EngineeringProbability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences http

Oren, Shmuel S.

94

Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 7. Accident analysis; selection and assessment of potential release scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this part of the assessment, several accident scenarios are identified that could result in significant releases of chemicals into the environment. These scenarios include ruptures of storage tanks, large magnitude on-site spills, mixing of incompatible wastes, and off-site releases caused by tranpsortation accidents. In evaluating these scenarios, both probability and consequence are assessed, so that likelihood of occurrence is coupled with magnitude of effect in characterizing short term risks.

NONE

1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Review of Probability Random Variable  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at close 4) Height of wheel going over a rocky road #12;3 Random Variable Non-examples 1) `Heads' or `Tails' on coin 2) Red or Black ball from urn But we can make these into RV's Basic Idea ­ don't know · Temperature · Wheel height #12;5 Given Continuous RV X... What is the probability that X = x0 ? Oddity : P

Fowler, Mark

96

Correlations In n-local Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recently Bell-type inequalities were introduced in Phys. Rev. A \\textbf{85}, 032119 (2012) to analyze the correlations emerging in an entanglement swapping scenario characterized by independence of the two sources shared between three parties. The corresponding scenario was referred to as \\textit{bilocal} scenario. Here, we derive Bell-type inequalities in $n+1$ party scenario, i.e., in $n$-local scenario. Considering the two different cases with several number of inputs and outputs, we derive local and $n$-local bounds. The $n$-local inequality studied for two cases are proved to be tight. Replacing the sources by maximally entangled states for two binary inputs and two binary outputs and also for the fixed input and four outputs, we observe quantum violations of $n$-local bounds. But the resistance offered to noise cannot be increased as compared to the bilocal scenario. Thus increasing the number of parties in a linear fashion in source independent scenario does not contribute in lowering down the requirements of revealing quantumness in a network in contrast to the star configuration (Phys. Rev. A \\textbf{90}, 062109 (2014)) of $n+1$ parties.

Kaushiki Mukherjee; Biswajit Paul; Debasis Sarkar

2015-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

97

SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director.................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 3 - Natural Gas Market Clearing Price Implications of Reduced Consumption from the Power

98

SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

..................11 Table 2: Levelized System Costs ($2006/MWh) .................................................12CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY REPORT ADDENDUM STAFFDRAFTREPORT JULY 2007 CEC-200

99

California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and natural gas scenarios, is that fuel economy increasesvehicle fuel economy). For natural gas and electricity, theNatural gas EUI All Shipments CEC, 2005a Electricity EUI VMT Vehicle stock Fuel economy

McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

The Programmer's Apprentice: A Program Design Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the ...

Rich, Charles

1987-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050 RyanCEC (2003a) California energy demand 2003-2013 forecast.CEC (2005a) California energy demand 2006-2016: Staff energy

McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments.

Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)]|[Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Safety and Risk Assessment Dept.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

104

Refinery Outages: Fall 2014  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data CenterFranconia,(Million Barrels) Crude Oil Reserves in NonproducingAdditions to Capacity on Cokers Catalytic CrackersProduct:

105

Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

Bertone, Gianfranco; /Zurich U. /Paris, Inst. Astrophys.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC /Kansas U.; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; /Valencia U., IFIC; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

2012-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

107

2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

- 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the...

108

Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak...

109

Multi-stage Stochastic Linear Programming: Scenarios Versus Events  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

average scenario). In the ELP approach, the potentially huge scenario tree of the SLP approach is ...... [13] J. Gondzio, R. Sarkissian, and J.-Ph. Vial. Parallel ...

2010-05-17T23:59:59.000Z

110

Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment...

111

Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by...

112

Free probability and combinatorics Preliminary version  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Free probability and combinatorics Preliminary version Michael Anshelevich c 2012 December 4, 2012 #12;Preface These notes were used in a topics course Free probability and combinatorics taught topics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 3 Free

Anshelevich, Michael

113

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

114

Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.

115

Optimization Online - Classification with Guaranteed Probability of ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mar 18, 2009 ... Classification with Guaranteed Probability of Error. Marco C. ... Category 3: Applications -- Science and Engineering (Statistics ). Citation:.

Marco C. Campi

2009-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

116

Notes on Probability Peter J. Cameron  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

will need the statistical tables. · Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences by Jay L. De use instead are: · Probability and Statistics in Engineering and Management Science by W. W. Hines probabilistic ideas in statistical inference and modelling, and the study of stochastic processes. Probability

Banaji,. Murad

117

Managing Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prescribed innovation methods, inovation is as much about a social process and context as it is a systematicManaging Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach Esmond Urwin1 , Michael Henshaw1 1 Systems Engineering Innovation Centre, Holywell Park, Loughborough University, Loughborough

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

118

Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Environmental Protection Agency, Danish Energy Authority and Danish Ministry of Finance. The consultancy reportDanish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020 and 2050 February 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy 54 2.9 ENERGY RESOURCES 55 3 DANISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION 58 3.1 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES 58 4

119

Disruption Scenarios, their Mitigation and Operation Window  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) and blanket (modeled by boxes with net toroidal current being forced zero;right lower figure) - Divertor representative disruption scenarios calculated with the DINA code based on the latest physics guidelines equilibrium calculation - Transport and current diffusion in the plasma (1D averaged on flux surface

120

Reading for Thursday Emissions scenario summary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

emissions, for year 2000 #12;USA ­ CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (2005) US EPA #12;#12;#12;Decreasing 13C strongly suggests that the source of atmospheric CO2 is fossil carbon #12;Line of evidence #1Reading for Thursday · Emissions scenario summary: ­ Read pages 3-6 · IPCC Chapter 11 (Regional

Schweik, Charles M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) TruckH2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg

122

Preview of Scenario Planning & Collaborative Modeling Processes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, changes over time." - Global Business Network #12;Jakali Nokandeh When it comes to climate change, we don and consider the pressures they play. Climate Variable General Change Expected Confidence Level Temperature and quantitative data and information. · Both are communication tools #12;What are Scenarios? · Stories about

123

SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

® ................................................................................................. H-1 H-2. Comparison of Natural Gas Forecasts and Their Methodologies -U.S. Energy Information........................... H-14 H-3. The High Gas Forecast Scenario for Sustained Natural Gas Scarcity-of-WECC Scorecards for Base, High, and Low Gas Cases

124

Shrinking Global Population: A futuristic scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

global population it will not be a game-changer. #12;Measures for changes in total births 1. TotalShrinking Global Population: A futuristic scenario or a current challenge. Hillel Bar of RSAI - Atlanta November 15, 2013 #12;The evolution of global population Year Global Population

Nagurney, Anna

125

Problems with Objective Probability for Conditionals What Bennett Means by Objective Probability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Problems with Objective Probability for Conditionals What Bennett Means by Objective Probability Objective probability is any sort of probability which demands inter- subjective agreement. Bennett Bennett introduces this as a three place relation, R(P,Q,n), between a proposition P, body of evidence Q

Fitelson, Branden

126

Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

Kracklauer, A. F. [Bauhaus Universitaet, PF 2040, 99401 Weimar (Germany)

2007-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

127

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.

Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Newman, G. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Analytical Study of Thermonuclear Reaction Probability Integrals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An analytic study of the reaction probability integrals corresponding to the various forms of the slowly varying cross-section factor $S(E)$ is attempted. Exact expressions for reaction probability integrals are expressed in terms of the extended gamma functions.

M. A. Chaudhry; H. J. Haubold; A. M. Mathai

2000-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

130

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

131

Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2011-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

132

Scenario Analysis Meeting | Department of Energy  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankCombustion | Department ofT ib l LPROJECTS IN7 RoadmapProgram| Department ofatItalian).pdfScenario

133

Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training...

134

A Bayesian Probability Calculus for Density Matrices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions are a special case where the density matrix is restricted to be diagonal. Density matrices are mixtures of dyads, where a dyad has the form uu' for any any unit column vector u. These unit vectors are the elementary events of the generalized probability space. Perhaps the simplest case to see that something unusual is going on is the case of uniform density matrix, i.e. 1/n times identity. This matrix assigns probability 1/n to every unit vector, but of course there are infinitely many of them. The new normalization rule thus says that sum of probabilities over any orthonormal basis of directions is one. We develop a probability calculus based on these more general distributions that includes definitions of joints, conditionals and formulas that relate these, i.e. analogs of the theorem of total probability, various Bayes rules for the calculation of posterior density matrices, etc. The resulting calculus parallels the familiar 'classical' probability calculus and always retains the latter as a special case when all matrices are diagonal. Whereas the classical Bayesian methods maintain uncertainty about which model is 'best', the generalization maintains uncertainty about which unit direction has the largest variance. Surprisingly the bounds also generalize: as in the classical setting we bound the negative log likelihood of the data by the negative log likelihood of the MAP estimator.

Manfred K. Warmuth; Dima Kuzmin

2014-08-09T23:59:59.000Z

135

Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Roadmap for Real World Internet applications Socioeconomic scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Roadmap for Real World Internet applications ­ Socioeconomic scenarios and design recommendations that is feasible to roadmap the dynamic deployment of Real World Internet applications. A multi- faceted scenarios. These scenarios are used as a roadmap for the system and architecture deployment. The application

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

137

Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California May 21.6.4 Alternative Scenario 3 ­ Patriotic Energy Independence Section 3: Developing the Scenario Model and Examining, 2002 by Rebecca Ghanadan rebeccag@socrates.berkeley.edu The Energy and Resources Group University

Kammen, Daniel M.

138

Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBNL-2416E Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China Nan Zhou*, Masaru Nishida, and Weijun Gao Keywords: China, residential building, modeling, energy intensity, energy efficiency, scenario

139

Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10/sup -7/ spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10/sup -9//mile.

McClure, J. D.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

PALC: Extending ALC ABoxes with Probabilities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on description logics can be found in [BCM+ 03] and [BKW03]. For many applications it is important to extend on probabilities on terminological axioms, see for example [BKW03, Hei94, KLP97]. Notable exceptions are [Jae94, GL

Jäger, Gerhard

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Cumulative Probability of Blast Fragmentation Effect  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents formulae for calculation of cumulative probability of effect made by blast fragments. Analysis with Mott distribution, discrete fragment enumeration, spatial non-uniformity, numerical issues, and a generalisation for a set of effects are also discussed.

Oleg Mazonka

2013-04-05T23:59:59.000Z

142

Cumulative Probability of Blast Fragmentation Effect  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents formulae for calculation of cumulative probability of effect made by blast fragments. Analysis with Mott distribution, discrete fragment enumeration, spatial non-uniformity, numerical issues, and a generalisation for a set of effects are also discussed.

Mazonka, Oleg

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje [Theoretical Physics Division, Rudjer Boskovic Institute, P.O. Box 180, HR-10002 Zagreb (Croatia); Glavan, Drazen [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, P.O. Box 331, HR-10002 Zagreb (Croatia)

2010-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

144

A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings factors in developing different energy scenarios for the US and elsewhere (Schipper & Meyers, 1993). More economic and population growth worldwide to look at energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (Carter

Diamond, Richard

145

A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings energy scenarios for the US and elsewhere (Schipper & Meyers, 1993). More recently, the Intergovernmental worldwide to look at energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (Carter et al., 2000). By developing

146

Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.

Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

2007-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

147

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2006-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

148

Emergence in Holographic Scenarios for Gravity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightfowardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and ...

Dieks, Dennis; de Haro, Sebastian

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Derivation of quantum probabilities from deterministic evolution  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The predictions of quantum mechanics are probabilistic. Quantum probabilities are extracted using a postulate of the theory called the Born rule, the status of which is central to the "measurement problem" of quantum mechanics. Efforts to justify the Born rule from other physical principles, and thus elucidate the measurement process, have involved lengthy statistical or information-theoretic arguments. Here we show that Bohm's deterministic formulation of quantum mechanics allows the Born rule for measurements on a single system to be derived, without any statistical assumptions. We solve a simple example where the creation of an ensemble of identical quantum states, together with position measurements on those states, are described by Bohm's quantum dynamics. The calculated measurement outcomes agree with the Born-rule probabilities, which are thus a consequence of deterministic evolution. Our results demonstrate that quantum probabilities can emerge from simple dynamical laws alone, and they support the view that there is no underlying indeterminism in quantum phenomena.

T. G. Philbin

2014-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

150

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

Çelik, Gültekin, E-mail: gultekin@selcuk.edu.tr [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Selçuk University, Campus 42049 Konya (Turkey); Gökçe, Yasin; Y?ld?z, Murat [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Karamanoglu Mehmetbey University, Karaman (Turkey)

2014-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

151

Modern Probability Theory and Its Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBABILITY LAWS. . . . . . . . . . 380 I AREA UNDER THE NORMAL DENSITY FUNCTION; A TABLE OF 441 (x) = 1 IX e-Y,y2 dy. "';271" -o:l II BINOMIAL PROBABILITIES; A TABLE OF (:) pX(l - p)"-X, FOR n = 1,2, ... , 10, AND VARIOUS VALUES OF P . . . . . . . 442... the sample description space S. To describe S in the example at hand, we write (3.2) S = {2-tuples (x, y): x is any integer, 1 to 200, y is any integer, 1 to 200}. We have the following notation for forming sets. We draw two braces to indicate that a set...

Parzen, Emanuel

1960-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC; ,

2010-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

153

An Alternative Yukawa Unified SUSY Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Supersymmetric SO(10) Grand Unified Theories with Yukawa unification represent an appealing possibility for physics beyond the Standard Model. However Yukawa unification is made difficult by large threshold corrections to the bottom mass. Generally one is led to consider models where the sfermion masses are large in order to suppress these corrections. Here we present another possibility, in which the top and bottom GUT scale Yukawa couplings are equal to a component of the charged lepton Yukawa matrix at the GUT scale in a basis where this matrix is not diagonal. Physically, this weak eigenstate Yukawa unification scenario corresponds to the case where the charged leptons that are in the 16 of SO(10) containing the top and bottom quarks mix with their counterparts in another SO(10) multiplet. Diagonalizing the resulting Yukawa matrix introduces mixings in the neutrino sector. Specifically we find that for a large region of parameter space with relatively light sparticles, and which has not been ruled out by current LHC or other data, the mixing induced in the neutrino sector is such that $sin^2 2\\Theta_{23} \\approx 1$, in agreement with data. The phenomenological implications are analyzed in some detail.

James S. Gainer; Ran Huo; Carlos E. M. Wagner

2011-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

154

Conditional probability on a quantum logic  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We analyze two approaches to conditional probability. The first approach follows Gudder and Marchand, Maczynsky, Cassinelli and Beltrametti, Cassinelli and Truini. The second approach follows Renyi and Kalmar. The main result is a characterization of the first approach with the help of a function, similarly as in the second approach.

Nanasiova, O.

1986-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Reducing the Probability of Capture into Resonance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A migrating planet can capture planetesimals into mean motion resonances. However, resonant trapping can be prevented when the drift or migration rate is sufficiently high. Using a simple Hamiltonian system for first and second order resonances, we explore how the capture probability depends on the order of the resonance, drift rate and initial particle eccentricity. We present scaling factors as a function of the planet mass and resonance strength to estimate the planetary migration rate above which the capture probability drops to less than 1/2. Applying our framework to multiple extra solar planetary systems that have two planets locked in resonance, we estimate lower limits for the outer planet's migration rate allowing resonance capture of the inner planet. Mean motion resonances are comprised of multiple resonant subterms. We find that the corotation subterm can reduce the probability of capture when the planet eccentricity is above a critical value. We present factors that can be used to estimate this critical planet eccentricity. Applying our framework to the migration of Neptune, we find that Neptune's eccentricity is near the critical value that would make its 2:1 resonance fail to capture twotinos. The capture probability is affected by the separation between resonant subterms and so is also a function of the precession rates of the longitudes of periapse of both planet and particle near resonance.

Alice C. Quillen

2005-11-03T23:59:59.000Z

156

Cornell Probability Summer School Simon Tavare  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cornell Probability Summer School 2006 Simon Tavar´e Lecture 6 Outline · We looked at evolution) Questions about Phylogenetic Trees · Topology of tree (the branching order) · Branch lengths (time of common Pleistocene 1 0.15 19 Middle Pleistocene 2 0.9 28 Early Pleistocene 3 1.8 22 Late Pliocene 4 3.6 47 Early

Durrett, Richard

157

Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability David Poole  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability David Poole Department of Computer Science, University 5485 Abstract Probabilistic Horn abduction is a simple frame­ work to combine probabilistic and logical abduction and logic pro­ gramming is at two levels. At the first level probabilistic Horn abduction

Poole, David

158

3. Probability inequalities 3.1. Introduction. Probability inequalities are an important instrument which is  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Among classical probabilities are those by S.N. Bernstein (see [1, III, §3, Theorem 18]) and Bennet [2) decrease exponentially as x for all summand forming the sum n j=1 Xj. As to the Bennet] is adjacent to the Bennet­Hoeffding inequality. That was rather a limited list of probability inequalities

Nagaev, Sergei V.

159

3. Probability inequalities 3.1. Introduction. Probability inequalities are an important instrument which is  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Among classical probabilities are those by S.N. Bernstein (see [1, III, §3, Theorem 18]) and Bennet [2(X j > x) decrease exponentially as x ## for all summand forming the sum # n j=1 X j . As to the Bennet] is adjacent to the Bennet--Hoe#ding inequality. That was rather a limited list of probability inequalities

Nagaev, Sergei V.

160

Optimization Online - The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sep 16, 2014 ... The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for Adaptive Robust Unit Commitment Problems. German Morales-España(gmorales ***at*** kth.se).

German Morales-España

2014-09-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell Intended Use: Handout for DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop,...

162

A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop...

163

Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

164

Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners...

165

Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.

Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.

2006-09-18T23:59:59.000Z

166

Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.

Melendez, M.

2007-05-17T23:59:59.000Z

167

advanced tokamak scenario: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

168

advanced operation scenarios: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

169

advanced tokamak scenarios: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

170

Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

171

Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios Ariel Ferna presents a method to portray protein folding dynamics at a coarse resolution, based on a pattern

Berry, R. Stephen

172

Towards a Ubiquitous Semantics of Interaction: phenomenology, scenarios and traces  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Towards a Ubiquitous Semantics of Interaction: phenomenology, scenarios and traces Alan Dix does not attempt to address the whole question, but focuses on a phenomenological semantics

Dix, Alan

173

Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these chal- lenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in %22cloud%22 computing and %22big-data%22 methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing envirnoment that could provide the foundation (i.e. %22cloud%22) for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of %22parallel multi-simulation%22. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; Jungels, John; Oppel, Fred J., [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Jules Beersma #12;Promotor: Prof. dr. A Onderzoekschool (BBOS) #12;Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Extreme hydro

Beersma, Jules

175

The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? 2005 Diesel Engine Emissions...

176

Probability-Based Software for Grid Optimization: Improved Power System Operations Using Advanced Stochastic Optimization  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

GENI Project: Sandia National Laboratories is working with several commercial and university partners to develop software for market management systems (MMSs) that enable greater use of renewable energy sources throughout the grid. MMSs are used to securely and optimally determine which energy resources should be used to service energy demand across the country. Contributions of electricity to the grid from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, introducing complications for MMSs, which have trouble accommodating the multiple sources of price and supply uncertainties associated with bringing these new types of energy into the grid. Sandia’s software will bring a new, probability-based formulation to account for these uncertainties. By factoring in various probability scenarios for electricity production from renewable energy sources in real time, Sandia’s formula can reduce the risk of inefficient electricity transmission, save ratepayers money, conserve power, and support the future use of renewable energy.

None

2012-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

177

Thermal Conductivity of Composites Under Di erent Heating Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Thermal Conductivity of Composites Under Di#11;erent Heating Scenarios H.T. Banks #3; , J.H. Hogan of composites under three di#11;erent heating scenarios: (i) a laser pulse heat source, (ii) a preheated composite sample, and (iii) a continuous heat source. 1 Introduction Adhesives such as epoxies, gels

178

Environmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

been assessed with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies [1], [2], [3] and [4]. However environmentalEnvironmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment Touria Larbi1 impacts assessment of scenarios is very rarely evaluated through a life cycle perspective partly because

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

179

Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

Tesfatsion, Leigh

180

Logical Structure of Physical Probability Assertions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A modification and generalisation of von Plato's fix of the frequency theory of probability is presented. It is thermodynamic in nature. Von Plato already fixed the logical circle in the frequency theory, we generalise his results to not necessarily ergodic systems of classical and quantum mechanics. This turns out to be precisely what is needed for the problem of Quantum Measurement and the problem of induction.

Joseph F. Johnson

2005-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Optimum phase space probabilities from quantum tomography  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We determine a positive normalised phase space probability distribution P with minimum mean square fractional deviation from the Wigner distribution W. The minimum deviation, an invariant under phase space rotations, is a quantitative measure of the quantumness of the state. The positive distribution closest to W will be useful in quantum mechanics and in time frequency analysis. The position-momentum correlations given by the distribution can be tested experimentally in quantum optics.

Roy, Arunabha S., E-mail: roy.arunabha@gmail.com [King's College, London (United Kingdom); Roy, S. M., E-mail: smroy@hbcse.tifr.res.in [HBCSE, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai (India)

2014-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

182

Free Energy Changes, Fluctuations, and Path Probabilities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We illustrate some of the static and dynamic relations discovered by Cohen, Crooks, Evans, Jarzynski, Kirkwood, Morriss, Searles, and Zwanzig. These relations link nonequilibrium processes to equilibrium isothermal free energy changes and to dynamical path probabilities. We include ideas suggested by Dellago, Geissler, Oberhofer, and Schoell-Paschinger. Our treatment is intended to be pedagogical, for use in an updated version of our book: Time Reversibility, Computer Simulation, and Chaos. Comments are very welcome.

William G. Hoover; Carol G. Hoover

2011-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

183

SCFG in CNF Probability distribution over  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: - += Ã?Ã?= rq, 1k 1ij rq,p,rqp Bk)(j,Ij)(i,Ik)(i,I #12;SCFG in CNF Outside probability : Op(i,j) = P(A1 * w1(j,k) Ã? Ii(j,k) = P(A1 * w1 ... wn, Ai * wj+1 ... wk |G ) = P(w1n , Ai jk |G) NLP statistical parsing 54 So

Ageno, Alicia

184

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Ideal MHD Stability of ITER Steady State Scenarios with ITBs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of ITER goals is to demonstrate feasibility of continuous operations using non-inductive current drive. Two main candidates have been identified for advanced operations: the long duration, high neutron fluency hybrid scenario and the steady state scenario, both operating at a plasma current lower than the reference ELMy scenario [1][2] to minimize the required current drive. The steady state scenario targets plasmas with current 7-10 MA in the flat-top, 50% of which will be provided by the self-generated, pressure-driven bootstrap current. It has been estimated that, in order to obtain a fusion gain Q > 5 at a current of 9 MA, it should be ?N > 2.5 and H > 1.5 [3]. This implies the presence of an Internal Transport Barrier (ITB). This work discusses how the stability of steady state scenarios with ITBs is affected by the external heating sources and by perturbations of the equilibrium profiles.

F.M. Poli, C.E. Kessel, S. Jardin, J. Manickam, M. Chance, J. Chen

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

186

Understanding Deutsch's probability in a deterministic multiverse  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Difficulties over probability have often been considered fatal to the Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics. Here I argue that the Everettian can have everything she needs from `probability' without recourse to indeterminism, ignorance, primitive identity over time or subjective uncertainty: all she needs is a particular *rationality principle*. The decision-theoretic approach recently developed by Deutsch and Wallace claims to provide just such a principle. But, according to Wallace, decision theory is itself applicable only if the correct attitude to a future Everettian measurement outcome is subjective uncertainty. I argue that subjective uncertainty is not to be had, but I offer an alternative interpretation that enables the Everettian to live without uncertainty: we can justify Everettian decision theory on the basis that an Everettian should *care about* all her future branches. The probabilities appearing in the decision-theoretic representation theorem can then be interpreted as the degrees to which the rational agent cares about each future branch. This reinterpretation, however, reduces the intuitive plausibility of one of the Deutsch-Wallace axioms (Measurement Neutrality).

Hilary Greaves

2003-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

187

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

Budnitz, R.J. [Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, P.R. [PRD Consulting (United States); Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H. [EQE International, Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

2004-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

189

Refinery Outages: First Half 2015  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data CenterFranconia, Virginia:FAQ <Information Administration (EIA) 10 MECS Survey Data 2010Feet) Year JanInformation&Analysis

190

Refinery Outages: First Half 2015  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data CenterFranconia,(Million Barrels) Crude Oil Reserves in NonproducingAdditions to Capacity on Cokers Catalytic CrackersProduct:First

191

Sandia National Laboratories: electricity outage  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1development Sandia, NRELdeep-waterbiofuels economicallyefficient

192

outages | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating SolarElectric Coop,SaveWhiskey Flatshydro Home Water Home Jweers's pictureoutages Home

193

OpenEI Community - outages  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home5b9fcbce19 No revision hasInformation Earth'sOklahoma/Geothermal < Oklahomast, 2012CoastfredResult

194

Renewable Energy Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report INLEXT-10-18930 December 2009 The 2005 Billion-Ton Study a (BTS) esti- mates the...

195

Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

196

Integrated Scenario-based Design Methodology for Collaborative Technology Innovation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

information technology innovation with an end-to-end Human and Social Sciences assistance. This methodologyIntegrated Scenario-based Design Methodology for Collaborative Technology Innovation Fabrice Forest Technological innovation often requires large scale collaborative partnership between many heterogeneous

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

197

astrophysical scenarios pushing: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for an Astrophysical Scenario Astrophysics (arXiv) Summary: In some models of gamma-ray bursts super-strong electric fields (Esim 1014 rm statvolt cm-1) have...

198

Modeling Combustion in Current Candidate Scenarios for Thermonuclear...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Combustion in Current Candidate Scenarios for Thermonuclear Supernovae Mar 26 2015 03:00 PM - 04:00 PM Dean M. Townsley, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa Physics Division...

199

How to Identify leading indicators for scenario monitoring  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Being able to quickly adapt to changes in the business environment has been widely acknowledged as essential for sustainable success by business leaders. Scenario planning is recognized as an effective tool used to explore ...

Xu, Xia, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...

Paltsev, Sergey

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

2009-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

202

Bayesian derivation of plasma equilibrium distribution function for tokamak scenarios and the associated Landau collision operator  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A class of parametric distribution functions has been proposed in [C.DiTroia, Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion,54,2012] as equilibrium distribution functions (EDFs) for charged particles in fusion plasmas, representing supra-thermal particles in anisotropic equilibria for Neutral Beam Injection, Ion Cyclotron Heating scenarios. Moreover, the EDFs can also represent nearly isotropic equilibria for Slowing-Down $alpha$ particles and core thermal plasma populations. These EDFs depend on constants of motion (COMs). Assuming an axisymmetric system with no equilibrium electric field, the EDF depends on the toroidal canonical momentum $P_\\phi$, the kinetic energy $w$ and the magnetic moment \\mu. In the present work, the EDFs are obtained from first principles and general hypothesis. The derivation is probabilistic and makes use of the Bayes' Theorem. The bayesian argument allows us to describe how far from the prior probability distribution function (pdf), e.g. Maxwellian, the plasma is, based on the information...

Di Troia, Claudio

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The method described. by Rao (9) is probably the fastest. This method uses N random numbers to per- mute N items. If N c 10, the N random numbers 0 ~ R. c 9 are listed. , i. e. R R . . . RN 2 The items are then ordered. according to the Ri, as in Table...2)=H(I&N2)+R(I&N3) 2 R(I&N2)=R(I&N2)/ANN C COMPUTES THE VARIANCE (VAR) OF A PARTICULAR PERMUTATION RR=O SMSQ, =SUMA??2 RATIO=SUMS/SUMA 188 DO 83 I=1, N HSQ=(H(I, NN2)-RATIO)??2 83 HH=HSQ"H(I, NN1)+RH VAR=SMSQ?HH VARAN=VAHAN+VAR AFAC...

Kleibrink, Ronald Gus

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

204

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-09-19T23:59:59.000Z

205

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

COMPENG 2010: Complexity in Engineering, Rome Italy, February 2010 c IEEE 2010 Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated by OPA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

reliability is especially impor- tant as the electric power infrastructure is being transformed in response change. There are many and diverse mechanisms in power sys- tems by which components tripping or failures and the probability distribution of load shed in simulated blackouts of an electric power system. The average

Dobson, Ian

207

Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Introducing hydrogen...

209

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...

210

E-Print Network 3.0 - aux scenarios operationnels Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

scenarios operationnels Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: aux scenarios operationnels Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 Un Systeme...

211

E-Print Network 3.0 - area deployment scenario Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

L. Ruiz* --Juan C. Dueas* --Fernando Usero** -- Summary: for deployment in service oriented architectures. We will focus on a concrete scenario: service deployment... scenario,...

212

E-Print Network 3.0 - assessment reference scenario Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

reference scenario Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: assessment reference scenario Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 The goal of software...

213

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 2, Part 3: Internal Events Appendices I and J  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probablistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143.

Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitehead, D.; Staple, B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Three Investment Scenarios for Future Nuclear Reactors in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Three Investment Scenarios for Future Nuclear Reactors in Europe Bianka SHOAI TEHRANI CEA nuclear reactors within a few decades (2040), several events and drivers could question this possibility or detrimental to future nuclear reactors compared with other technologies and according to four main investment

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

215

FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CHAPTER 1 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION MACHINES OF THE THIRD KIND Peter to a notion of staging free energy: the free energy invested in choreographing all the actors of a biochemical \\offprintinfo{(Title, Edition)}{(Author)} at the beginning of your document. 1 #12;2 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING

Salamon, Peter

216

A Detector Scenario for the MuonCollider Cooling Experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Meson Lab at Fermilab: Power Supplies (two floors) Cooling Apparatus Muon Beamline shielding shieldingA Detector Scenario for the Muon­Collider Cooling Experiment C. Lu, K.T. McDonald and E.J. Prebys the emittance of the muon beam to 3% accuracy before and after the muon cooling apparatus. 1 #12; Possible site

McDonald, Kirk

217

Exploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident that followed the 2011 Great East JapanExploring Humanoid Robots Locomotion Capabilities in Virtual Disaster Response Scenarios Karim-like motor skills to be achieved. We use virtual scenes under the fully- 3D-modeled-environment assumption

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

218

Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Yasser Al-Saleh, Paul Upham and Khaleel Malik October 2008 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 125 #12;Renewable Energy compromising those of future generations. Renewable energy technologies, in particular, are becoming

Watson, Andrew

219

Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Disaster Management Simulation WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction CBRNE Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive CSCW Computer Supported Collaborative Work MSEL Master Scenario Event Lists TAF Training Assessment Facility EOTC... Visualizer ........................................................................41 Figure 14: Questionnaire Averages Summary .................................................................52 x LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Example MSEL Items...

Riddle, Austin Christopher

2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

220

The Phenomenology of Gravitino Dark Matter Scenarios in Supergravity Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We review the phenomenology of gravitino dark matter within supergravity framework. Gravitino can be dark matter if it is the lightest supersymmetric particle, which is stable if R-parity is conserved. There are several distinct scenarios depending on what the next to lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP) is. We discuss the constraints and summarize the phenomenology of neutralino, stau, stop and sneutrino NLSPs.

Yudi Santoso

2009-03-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION This white paper provides an evaluation of physical elements of climate change and sea level rise, and a range of sea level rise along the California coast. Keywords: California climate change

222

Implementation of a Scenario-based MPC for HVAC Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Implementation of a Scenario-based MPC for HVAC Systems: an Experimental Case Study Alessandra, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems play a fundamental role in maintaining acceptable thermal energy savings potential. Developing effective MPC-based control strategies for HVAC systems

Johansson, Karl Henrik

223

Future of the Lakes Scenarios for the Future of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

during and after the world oil price crises in the 1970s. More recently, scenarios have been used forest grassland shrubs/wetlands urban water emergent/wet meadow WISCONSIN VilasIron Oneida Forest Price NHLD #12;Recent History of the Northern Highland Lake District 0 100 1000 10,000 Redevelopment begins

224

Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for Multiple Harvester Powered.alarcon@upc.edu Abstract--Multi-source energy harvesters are gaining interest as a robust alternative to power wireless sensors, since the sensor node can maintain its operation regardless of the fact that one of its energy

Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

225

LAVORO68.2011 Energy Access Scenarios to  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

­ even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13 by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various

Kammen, Daniel M.

226

Evaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Subtask 2.1 Report By the University of Hawaii Hawaii Natural Energy Institute School of Ocean and EarthEvaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for the Big Island Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Under Award No. DE-FC-06NT42847

227

The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is the first step in the resolution of the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) issue for the Zion Nuclear Power Plant using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). This report includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO{sub 2} mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but our quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, we also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and ``splintering.`` Two causal relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the Convection Limited Containment Heating (CLCH) model and the Two-Cell Equilibrium (TCE) model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive database including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength (fragility) curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10{sup {minus}3} for all scenarios considered. Sensitivity analyses did not show any areas of large sensitivity.

Pilch, M.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yan, H.; Theofanous, T.G. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

229

Tungsten Transport in JET H-mode Plasmas in Hybrid Scenario, Experimental Observations and Modelling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tungsten Transport in JET H-mode Plasmas in Hybrid Scenario, Experimental Observations and Modelling

230

Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.

Melaina, M.; Webster, K.

2009-10-28T23:59:59.000Z

231

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall ScenarioElectricity Sector Conditions Assumed for Electricity Sector and Building

Wei, Max

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Reasonable conditions for joint probabilities of non-commuting observables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In the operator formalism of quantum mechanics, the density operator describes the complete statistics of a quantum state in terms of d^2 independent elements, where d is the number of possible outcomes for a precise measurement of an observable. In principle, it is therefore possible to express the density operator by a joint probability of two observables that cannot actually be measured jointly because they do not have any common eigenstates. However, such joint probabilities do not refer to an actual measurement outcome, so their definition cannot be based on a set of possible events. Here, I consider the criteria that could specify a unique mathematical form of joint probabilities in the quantum formalism. It is shown that a reasonable set of conditions results in the definition of joint probabilities by ordered products of the corresponding projection operators. It is pointed out that this joint probability corresponds to the quasi probabilities that have recently been observed experimentally in weak measurements.

Holger F. Hofmann

2014-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

233

MAS 108 Probability I Test 11 November 2005, 16101655  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) For which values of p are they more likely to have 2 boys than 3 boys? 3 #12;4 (15 marks) A fish is caught at random on the Great Barrier Reef. The probability that the fish is striped is 7/20; the probability that the fish is luminous is 1/5; and the probability that the fish is both striped and luminuous is 1/20. Find

Bailey, R. A.

234

Sensible Quantum Mechanics: Are Probabilities only in the Mind?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantum mechanics may be formulated as {\\it Sensible Quantum Mechanics} (SQM) so that it contains nothing probabilistic except conscious perceptions. Sets of these perceptions can be deterministically realized with measures given by expectation values of positive-operator-valued {\\it awareness operators}. Ratios of the measures for these sets of perceptions can be interpreted as frequency-type probabilities for many actually existing sets. These probabilities generally cannot be given by the ordinary quantum ``probabilities'' for a single set of alternatives. {\\it Probabilism}, or ascribing probabilities to unconscious aspects of the world, may be seen to be an {\\it aesthemamorphic myth}.

Don N. Page

1995-07-11T23:59:59.000Z

235

New probability table treatment in MCNP for unresolved resonances  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An upgrade for MCNP has been implemented to sample the neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range using probability tables. These probability tables are generated with the cross section processor code NJOY, by using the evaluated statistical information about the resonances to calculate cumulative probability distribution functions for the microscopic total cross section. The elastic, fission, and radiative capture cross sections are also tabulated as the average values of each of these partials conditional upon the value of the total. This paper summarizes how the probability tables are utilized in this MCNP upgrade and compares this treatment with the approximate smooth treatment for some example problems.

Carter, L.L. [Carter M.C. Analysis, Richland, WA (United States); Little, R.C.; Hendricks, J.S.; MacFarlane, R.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Finite n Largest Eigenvalue Probability Distribution Function of Gaussian Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper we focus on the finite n probability distribution function of the largest eigenvalue in the classical Gaussian Ensemble of n by n matrices (GEn). We derive the finite n largest eigenvalue probability distribution function for the Gaussian Orthogonal and Symplectic Ensembles and also prove an Edgeworth type Theorem for the largest eigenvalue probability distribution function of Gaussian Symplectic Ensemble. The correction terms to the limiting probability distribution are expressed in terms of the same Painleve II functions appearing in the Tracy-Widom distribution.

Leonard N. Choup

2011-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

237

The Decay of Accreting Triple Systems as Brown Dwarf Formation Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigate the dynamical decay of non-hierarchical accreting triple systems and its implications on the ejection model as Brown Dwarf formation scenario. A modified chain-regularization scheme is used to integrate the equations of motion, that also allows for mass changes over time as well as for momentum transfer from the accreted gas mass onto the bodies. We integrate an ensemble of triple systems within a certain volume with different accretion rates, assuming several prescriptions of how momentum is transferred onto the bodies. We follow their evolution until the systems have decayed. We analyze the end states and decay times of these systems and determine the fraction of Brown Dwarfs formed, their escape speeds as well as the semi-major axis distribution of the formed Brown Dwarf binaries. We find that the formation probability of Brown Dwarfs depends strongly on the assumed momentum transfer which is related to the motion of the gas. Due to ongoing accretion and consequent shrinkage of the systems, the median escape velocity is increased by a factor of 2 and the binary separations are decreased by a factor of 5 compared with non-accreting systems. Furthermore, the obtained semi-major axis distribution drops off sharply to either side of the median, which is also supported by observations. We conclude that accretion and momentum transfer of accreted gas during the dynamical decay of triple systems is able to produce the observed distribution of close binary Brown Dwarfs, making the ejection model a viable option as Brown Dwarf formation scenario.

Stefan Umbreit; Andreas Burkert; Thomas Henning; Seppo Mikkola; Rainer Spurzem

2005-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

238

China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti

Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

2004-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

239

Neutrino parameters and the $N_2$-dominated scenario of leptogenesis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We briefly review the main aspects of leptogenesis, describing both the unflavoured and the flavoured versions of the $N_2$-dominated scenario. A study of the success rates of both classes of models has been carried out. We comment on these results and discuss corrective effects to this simplest scenario. Focusing on the flavoured case, we consider the conditions required by strong thermal leptogenesis, where the final asymmetry is fully independent of the initial conditions. Barring strong cancellations in the seesaw formula and in the flavoured decay parameters, we show that strong thermal leptogenesis favours a lightest neutrino mass $m_1\\gtrsim10\\,\\mbox{meV}$ for normal ordering (NO) and $m_1\\gtrsim 3\\,\\mbox{meV}$ for inverted ordering (IO). Finally, we briefly comment on the power of absolute neutrino mass scale experiments to either support or severely corner strong thermal leptogenesis.

Michele Re Fiorentin; Sophie E. King

2014-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

240

Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.

A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky

2008-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

Arai, Masato [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Horska 3a/22, 128 00 Prague 2 (Czech Republic); Kawai, Shinsuke [Institute for the Early Universe (IEU), 11-1 Daehyun-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 120-750 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 440-746 (Korea, Republic of); Okada, Nobuchika [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

Hoette, Trisha Marie

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Probability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Probability Texas A&M, July 9-13. Nizar Demni Paris VI University July 10, 2007 Nizar Demni Paris VI University Free Processes via Matrix Theory Concentration week on free Pr #12;Definitions Non commutative probability space : Unital Algebra A + linear

Anshelevich, Michael

244

MA 747, Spring 2012 Probability and Stochastic Process II  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MA 747, Spring 2012 Probability and Stochastic Process II Lecture Notes and Reference book The course will be based on the lecture notes and the reference book: Stochastic Processes, S.R.S. Varadhan theory needed for advanced applications in stochastic processes. It provides the basic probability theory

Ito, Kazufumi

245

A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.

Holik, Federico, E-mail: olentiev2@gmail.com [Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Instituto de Física (IFLP-CCT-CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina) [Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Instituto de Física (IFLP-CCT-CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Sáenz, Manuel [Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina)] [Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Plastino, Angel [Universitat de les Illes Balears and IFISC-CSIC, 07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain)] [Universitat de les Illes Balears and IFISC-CSIC, 07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain)

2014-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

246

Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc

Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

247

A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the frame work of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and modified Chaplygin gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated.

Saugata Mitra; Subhajit Saha; Subenoy Chakraborty

2015-03-25T23:59:59.000Z

248

Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate “High-Yield Scenario” (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.

Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi

2009-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

250

Dark matter candidate in an extended type III seesaw scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The type III seesaw mechanism for neutrino mass generation usually makes use of at least two $Y = 0$, $SU(2)_L$ lepton triplets. We augment such a model with a third triplet and a sterile neutrino, both of which are odd under a conserved $\\Z_2$ symmetry. With all new physics confined to the $\\Z_2$-odd sector, whose low energy manifestation is in some higher-dimensional operators, a fermionic dark matter candidate is found to emerge. We identify the region of the parameter space of the scenario, which is consistent with all constraints from relic density and direct searches, and allows a wide range of masses for the dark matter candidate.

Chaudhuri, Avinanda; Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; Rakshit, Subhendu

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of Inspector GeneralDepartmentAUDIT REPORTOpenWendeGuo Feng Bio Energy Co LtdInformation Plans and Scenarios

252

A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the frame work of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and modified Chaplygin gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated.

Mitra, Saugata; Chakraborty, Subenoy

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

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254

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 2, Part 1C: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for plant operational State 5 during a refueling outage, Main report (Sections 11--14)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document contains the accident sequence analysis of internally initiated events for Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as it operates in the Low Power and Shutdown Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. The report documents the methodology used during the analysis, describes the results from the application of the methodology, and compares the results with the results from two full power analyses performed on Grand Gulf.

Whitehead, D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario...

256

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...

257

Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

258

The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Superpeaker OCGT CCGT Coal Nuclear Generation Capacities [generation options considered in THEA are nuclear, coal,Generation Share [%] Wind Low Wind Scenario High Wind Scenario Hydro Superpeaker OCGT CCGT Coal

Nicolosi, Marco

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Net quark number probability distribution near the chiral crossover transition  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigate properties of the probability distribution of the net quark number near the chiral crossover transition in the quark-meson model. The calculations are performed within the functional renormalization group approach, as well as in the mean-field approximation. We find, that there is a substantial influence of the underlying chiral phase transition on the properties of the probability distribution. In particular, for a physical pion mass, the distribution which includes the effect of mesonic fluctuations, differs considerably from both, the mean-field and Skellam distributions. The latter is considered as a reference for a non-critical behavior. A characteristic feature of the net quark number probability distribution is that, in the vicinity of the chiral crossover transition in the O(4) universality class, it is narrower than the corresponding mean-field and Skellam function. We study the volume dependence of the probability distribution, as well as the resulting cumulants, and discuss their approximate scaling properties.

Kenji Morita; Bengt Friman; Krzysztof Redlich; Vladimir Skokov

2013-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

260

Beta-hypergeometric probability distribution on symmetric matrices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Beta-hypergeometric probability distribution on symmetric matrices A. Hassairi , M. Masmoudi, O. Regaig Sfax University Tunisia. Running title: Beta-hypergeometric distribution Abstract : Some remarkable properties of the beta distribution are based on relations in- volving independence between beta

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

On Transformations between Probability and Spohnian Disbelief Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Such transformations between probability and Spohn's calculi can contribute to (1) a clarification of the semantics of non-probabilistic degree of uncertain belief, and (2) to a construction of a decision theory for such calculi. In practice, the transformations...

Giang, Phan H.; Shenoy, Prakash P.

1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

BayesDB : querying the probable implications of tabular data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BayesDB, a Bayesian database table, lets users query the probable implications of their tabular data as easily as an SQL database lets them query the data itself. Using the built-in Bayesian Query Language (BQL), users ...

Baxter, Jay

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Inductive inference based on probability and Matthew Weber  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Inductive inference based on probability and similarity Matthew Weber Princeton University Daniel in the Bayesian sense (Tentori et al., 2007), or as Weber acknowledges support from an NSF graduate research

Osherson, Daniel

264

Reaching Consensus with Imprecise Probabilities Over a Network  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the centralized estimate even while measurements of a static process are occurring concurrently with the con Aerial Vehicle (UAV) teams or geographically separated medical infrastructures, can be modeled as a group coordination of the team1,2. This paper considers a typical scenario in which the agents have observed (or

How, Jonathan P.

265

Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Calculating the probability of detecting radio signals from alien civilizations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Although it might not be self-evident, it is in fact entirely possible to calculate the probability of detecting alien radio signals by understanding what types of extraterrestrial radio emissions can be expected and what properties these emissions can have. Using the Drake equation as the obvious starting point, and logically identifying and enumerating constraints of interstellar radio communications can yield the probability of detecting a genuine alien radio signal.

Marko Horvat

2007-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

267

Calculating the probability of detecting radio signals from alien civilizations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Although it might not be self-evident, it is in fact entirely possible to calculate the probability of detecting alien radio signals by understanding what types of extraterrestrial radio emissions can be expected and what properties these emissions can have. Using the Drake equation as the obvious starting point, and logically identifying and enumerating constraints of interstellar radio communications can yield the probability of detecting a genuine alien radio signal.

Horvat, Marko

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

MTH 164 Practice Exam 4 -Probability Theory Spring 2008  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) black A) 2 3 B) 1 3 C) 2 5 D) 1 2 1) Find the probability. 2) A bag contains 6 red marbles, 3 blue marbles, and 1 green marble. What is the probability that a randomly selected marble is not blue? A) 7 10 has 22 students, 12 girls and 10 boys. Two students must be selected at random to be in the fall play

Garcia-Puente, Luis David

269

The resonance absorption probability function for neutron and multiplicative integral  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The analytical approximations for the moderating neutrons flux density like Fermi spectra, widely used in reactor physics, involve the probability function for moderating neutron to avoid the resonant absorption obtained using some restrictive assumptions regarding the acceptable resonances width. By means of multiplicative integral (Volterra integral) theory for a commutative algebra an analytical expression for the probability function is obtained rigorously without any restrictive assumptions.

V. D. Rusov; V. A. Tarasov; S. I. Kosenko; S. A. Chernegenko

2012-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

270

Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

2006-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

271

Self-assembly scenarios of patchy colloidal particles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The rapid progress in precisely designing the surface decoration of patchy colloidal particles offers a new, yet unexperienced freedom to create building entities for larger, more complex structures in soft matter systems. However, it is extremely difficult to predict the large variety of ordered equilibrium structures that these particles are able to undergo under the variation of external parameters, such as temperature or pressure. Here we show that, by a novel combination of two theoretical tools, it is indeed possible to predict the self-assembly scenario of patchy colloidal particles: on one hand, a reliable and efficient optimization tool based on ideas of evolutionary algorithms helps to identify the ordered equilibrium structures to be expected at T = 0; on the other hand, suitable simulation techniques allow to estimate via free energy calculations the phase diagram at finite temperature. With these powerful approaches we are able to identify the broad variety of emerging self-assembly scenarios for spherical colloids decorated by four patches and we investigate and discuss the stability of the crystal structures on modifying in a controlled way the tetrahedral arrangement of the patches.

G. Doppelbauer; E. G. Noya; E. Bianchi; G. Kahl

2012-06-13T23:59:59.000Z

272

Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

Kodra, Evan A [ORNL; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Isospin violating dark matter in Stückelberg portal scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hidden sector scenarios in which dark matter (DM) interacts with the Standard Model matter fields through the exchange of massive Z' bosons are well motivated by certain string theory constructions. In this work, we thoroughly study the phenomenological aspects of such scenarios and find that they present a clear and testable consequence for direct DM searches. We show that such string motivated St\\"uckelberg portals naturally lead to isospin violating interactions of DM particles with nuclei. We find that the relations between the DM coupling to neutrons and protons for both, spin-independent (fn/fp) and spin-dependent (an/ap) interactions, are very flexible depending on the charges of the quarks under the extra U(1) gauge groups. We show that within this construction these ratios are generically different from plus and minus 1 (i.e. different couplings to protons and neutrons) leading to a potentially measurable distinction from other popular portals. Finally, we incorporate bounds from searches for dijet and dilepton resonances at the LHC as well as LUX bounds on the elastic scattering of DM off nucleons to determine the experimentally allowed values of fn/fp and an/ap.

Victor Martin-Lozano; Miguel Peiro; Pablo Soler

2015-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

274

Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

Gavin Hawkley

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Off-Shell Higgs Coupling Measurements in BSM scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proposals of measuring the off-shell Higgs contributions and first measurements at the LHC have electrified the Higgs phenomenology community for two reasons: Firstly, probing interactions at high invariant masses and momentum transfers is intrinsically sensitive to new physics beyond the Standard Model, irrespective of a resonant or non-resonant character of a particular BSM scenario. Secondly, under specific assumptions a class of models exists for which the off-shell coupling measurement together with a measurement of the on-shell signal strength can be re-interpreted in terms of a bound on the total Higgs boson width. In this paper, we provide a first step towards a classification of the models for which a total width measurement is viable and we discuss examples of BSM models for which the off-shell coupling measurement can be important in either constraining or even discovering new physics in the upcoming LHC runs. Specifically, we discuss the quantitative impact of the presence of dimension six operators on the (de)correlation of Higgs on- and off-shell regions keeping track of all interference effects. We furthermore investigate off-shell measurements in a wider context of new (non-)resonant physics in Higgs portal scenarios and the MSSM.

Christoph Englert; Yotam Soreq; Michael Spannowsky

2014-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

276

Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS® computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some components heated up beyond their service temperatures, the staff determined that there would be no significant release as a result of the fire for the NAC LWT and similar casks.

Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Decaying Vacuum Inflationary Cosmologies: A Complete Scenario Including Curvature Effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose a large class of nonsingular cosmologies of arbitrary spatial curvature whose cosmic history is determined by a primeval dynamical $\\Lambda (t)$-term. For all values of the curvature, the models evolve between two extreme de Sitter phases driven by the relic time-varying vacuum energy density. The transition from inflation to the radiation phase is universal and points to a natural solution of the graceful exit problem regardless of the values of the curvature parameter. The flat case recovers the scenario recently discussed in the literature (Perico et al., Phys. Rev. D88, 063531, 2013). The early de Sitter phase is characterized by an arbitrary energy scale $H_I$ associated to the primeval vacuum energy density. If $H_I$ is fixed to be nearly the Planck scale, the ratio between the relic and the present observed vacuum energy density is $\\rho_{vI}/\\rho_{v0} \\simeq 10^{123}$.

Lima, J A S; Zilioti, G J M

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Quark Gluon Plasma Diagnostics in a Successive Equilibrium Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The relativistic Fokker Planck equation has been used to study the evolution of the quark distribution in the quark gluon phase expected to be formed in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions. The effect of thermal masses for quarks and gluons is incorporated to take account of the in-medium properties. We find that the kinetic equilibrium is achieved before the system reaches the critical temperature of quark hadron phase transition. We find that chemical equilibrium is not achieved during this time. We have evaluated the electromagnetic probes of quark gluon plasma from the non-equilibrated quark gluon phase and compared them with those in completely equilibrated scenario. The hard QCD production rates for the electromagnetic ejectiles as well as the heavy quark production rates are also calculated.

Pradip Roy; Jane Alam; Sourav Sarkar; Bikash Sinha; Sibaji Raha

1997-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

279

Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

Marin, Eduardo; /CERN; Tomas, Rogelio; /CERN; Bambade, Philip; /Orsay, LAL; Kuroda, Shigeru; /KEK, Tsukuba; Okugi, Toshiyuki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Tauchi, Toshiaki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; /KEK, Tsukuba; Urakawa, Junji; /KEK, Tsukuba; Parker, Brett; /Brookhaven; Seryi, Andrei; /SLAC; White, Glen; /SLAC; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

2012-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

280

Simplified models for same-spin new physics scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Simplified models are an important tool for the interpretation of searches for new physics at the LHC. They are defined by a small number of new particles together with a specific production and decay pattern. The simplified models adopted in the experimental analyses thus far have been derived from supersymmetric theories, and they have been used to set limits on supersymmetric particle masses. We investigate the applicability of such simplified supersymmetric models to a wider class of new physics scenarios, in particular those with same-spin Standard Model partners. We focus on the pair production of quark partners and analyze searches for jets and missing energy within a simplified supersymmetric model with scalar quarks and a simplified model with spin-1/2 quark partners. Despite sizable differences in the detection efficiencies due to the spin of the new particles, the limits on particle masses are found to be rather similar. We conclude that the supersymmetric simplified models employed in current expe...

Edelhäuser, Lisa; Sonneveld, Jory

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

de Sitter relativity: a natural scenario for an evolving Lambda  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The dispersion relation of de Sitter special relativity is obtained in a simple and compact form, which is formally similar to the dispersion relation of ordinary special relativity. It is manifestly invariant under change of scale of mass, energy and momentum, and can thus be applied at any energy scale. When applied to the universe as a whole, the de Sitter special relativity is found to provide a natural scenario for the existence of an evolving cosmological term, and agrees in particular with the present-day observed value. It is furthermore consistent with a conformal cyclic view of the universe, in which the transition between two consecutive eras occurs through a conformal invariant spacetime.

J. P. Beltran Almeida; C. S. O. Mayor; J. G. Pereira

2011-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

282

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

None

1999-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

2003-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

284

ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

Guyader, Arnaud, E-mail: arnaud.guyader@uhb.fr [Universite Rennes 2 (France); Hengartner, Nicolas [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Information Sciences Group (United States); Matzner-Lober, Eric [Universite Rennes 2 (France)

2011-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

286

Surface spin flip probability of mesoscopic Ag wires.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Spin relaxation in mesoscopic Ag wires in the diffusive transport regime is studied via nonlocal spin valve and Hanle effect measurements performed on Permalloy/Ag lateral spin valves. The ratio between momentum and spin relaxation times is not constant at low temperatures. This can be explained with the Elliott-Yafet spin relaxation mechanism by considering the momentum surface relaxation time as being temperature dependent. We present a model to separately determine spin flip probabilities for phonon, impurity and surface scattering and find that the spin flip probability is highest for surface scattering.

Mihajlovic, G.; Pearson, J. E.; Bader, S. D.; Hoffmann, A.

2010-06-08T23:59:59.000Z

287

Probability analysis of dry-day sequences in Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0. d 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 20 40 d0 80 100 120 140 140 180 200 220 240 240 280 300 320 340 340 JULIAN DATE Fig, 7. Three-cycle maximum and minimum probabilities for Brownsville, Texas. 1. 0 m I a O 0. 9 0. 8 0. 7 0. d 0. 8 0...PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF DRY-DAY SEQUENCES IN TEXAS A I'hesis by ROBERT SAMES MILNE Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE DECEMBER 1971 Major...

Milne, Robert James

1971-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Forester, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, J. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Relationships among probability distributions of stream discharges in floods, climate,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Relationships among probability distributions of stream discharges in floods, climate, bed load of both follow power laws. The number N(Q) of days on which the discharge exceeds Q, or the number of the United States. To examine the effect of climate change on bed load transport and river incision, we

Mojzsis, Stephen J.

291

Adaptive MFR Parameter Control: Fixed vs. Variable Probabilities of Detection  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

probability on measurement level, i.c. plot level, should be fixed. This is done either by fixing.boers,hans.driessen,jitse.zwaga}@nl.thalesgroup.com keywords: Multi Function Radar, Tracking, Optimization Abstract In this paper an efficient adaptive parameter control scheme for Multi Function Radar (MFR) is used. The scheme has been designed in such a way

Al Hanbali, Ahmad

292

Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probability around the Quantum Gravity. Part 1: Planar Pure Gravity V.A.Malyshev \\Lambda September 17, 1998 Abstract In this paper we study stochastic dynamics which leaves quantum gravity equilibrium science and biology. At the same time the paper can serve an intro­ duction to quantum gravity

293

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

294

1997 by M. Kostic Ch.4: Probability and Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 ©1997 by M. Kostic Ch.4: Probability and Statistics Variations due to: · Measurement System. ©1997 by M. Kostic Statistical Measurement Theory · Sample - a set of measured data · Measurand - measured variable · (True) mean value: (x') xmean #12;2 ©1997 by M. Kostic Mean Value and Uncertainty x

Kostic, Milivoje M.

295

Calculating the probability of injected carbon dioxide plumes encountering faults  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the main concerns of storage in saline aquifers is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available for these aquifers. This necessitates a method using available fault data to estimate the probability of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault. The probability of encounter can be calculated from areal fault density statistics from available data, and carbon dioxide plume dimensions from numerical simulation. Given a number of assumptions, the dimension of the plume perpendicular to a fault times the areal density of faults with offsets greater than some threshold of interest provides probability of the plume encountering such a fault. Application of this result to a previously planned large-scale pilot injection in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin yielded a 3% and 7% chance of the plume encountering a fully and half seal offsetting fault, respectively. Subsequently available data indicated a half seal-offsetting fault at a distance from the injection well that implied a 20% probability of encounter for a plume sufficiently large to reach it.

Jordan, P.D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

The Annals of Probability 2007, Vol. 35, No. 1, 131  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

operates as follows. An environment is chosen from the distribution P and fixed for all time. Pick probability distribution Pz(dX,d) = P z (dX)P(d) on walks and environments is called the joint annealed law IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT WITH A FORBIDDEN DIRECTION BY FIRAS RASSOUL-AGHA AND TIMO SEPPÃ?LÃ?INEN1 University

Seppäläinen, Timo

297

Joint probability of precipitation and discharge deficits in the Netherlands  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Joint probability of precipitation and discharge deficits in the Netherlands Jules J. Beersma and T. Adri Buishand Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands Received 14 April] The Netherlands are situated at the downstream end of the Rhine River. A large part of the country can be supplied

Beersma, Jules

298

Generic Degraded Congiguration Probability Analysis for DOE Codisposal Waste Package  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k{sub eff} in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package.

S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

2001-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

299

Local Privacy and Minimax Bounds: Sharp Rates for Probability Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Jordan1,2 Martin J. Wainwright1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2Local Privacy and Minimax Bounds: Sharp Rates for Probability Estimation John C. Duchi1 Michael I Department of Statistics University of California, Berkeley {jduchi

Jordan, Michael I.

300

BRIEF COMMUNICATIONS A probable spawning aggregation of the leather bass  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of herbivores that facilitate leather bass predation on benthic fishes and crustaceans (Montgomery, 1975). Of the 122 reef fish species in Revillagigedo recorded on scuba dives in February 2006, the leather bassBRIEF COMMUNICATIONS A probable spawning aggregation of the leather bass Dermatolepis dermatolepis

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL] [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL] [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL] [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)] [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL] [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL] [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL] [ORNL

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07T23:59:59.000Z

304

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.

Not Available

1985-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Deployment Scenario of Heavy Water Cooled Thorium Breeder Reactor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Deployment scenario of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor has been studied. We have assumed to use plutonium and thorium oxide fuel in water cooled reactor to produce {sup 233}U which will be used in thorium breeder reactor. The objective is to analysis the potential of water cooled Th-Pu reactor for replacing all of current LWRs especially in Japan. In this paper, the standard Pressurize Water Reactor (PWR) has been designed to produce 3423 MWt; (i) Th-Pu PWR, (ii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR = 1.0) and (iii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR 1.2). The properties and performance of the core were investigated by using cell and core calculation code. Th-Pu PWR or HWR produces {sup 233}U to introduce thorium breeder reactor. The result showed that to replace all (60 GWe) LWR by thorium breeder reactor within a period of one century, Th-Pu oxide fueled PWR has insufficient capability to produce necessary amount of {sup 233}U and Th-Pu oxide fueled HWR has almost enough potential to produce {sup 233}U but shows positive void reactivity coefficient.

Mardiansah, Deby; Takaki, Naoyuki [Course of Applied Science, School of Engineering, Tokai University (Japan)

2010-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

306

Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Supplements to the release scenario analyses for the waste isolation pilot plant (WIPP)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper summarizes three analyses of long-term environmental impacts of the WIPP that were made subsequent to the publication of the DEIS in response to agency and public comments. Three supplemental scenarios are described in which activity is transported to the biosphere by groundwater. The scenarios are entitled: brine pocket rupture scenario, effects of water on domestic wells; and agricultural use of the Pecos River Water.

Bingham, F.W.; Merritt, M.L.; Tierney, M.S.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. Forest Service research paper  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), or its greenhouse gas equivalent, were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. A composite approach was taken to generate a climate scenario that considers knowledge of current regional climate controls, available output from general circulation and regional climate models, and observed changes in climate.

Ferguson, S.A.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

What does the 2°C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study—all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targets—show that the probability of exceeding the 2°C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

E-Print Network 3.0 - asymptotic safety scenario Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

be regarded as a local change. The effect of scenario 2 would be ... Source: Kelly, Tim - Department of Computer Science, University of York (UK) Collection: Computer...

311

Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.

Wilmot, E.L.; McClure, J.D.; Luna, R.E.

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis...

313

Integrating Service-Oriented Mobile Units to Support Collaboration in Ad-hoc Scenarios .  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Advances in wireless communication and mobile computing extend collaboration scenarios. Mobile workers using computing devices are currently able to collaborate in order to carry out… (more)

Neyem, Andrés

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbon emissions (Summary)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy use. China’s Sustainable Energy Future Summary next31 -ii- China’s Sustainable Energy Future Executive Summarystudy, entitled China’s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated

Gilli, Adrian

316

A Scenario-based Predictive Control Approach to Building HVAC Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Scenario-based Predictive Control Approach to Building HVAC Management Systems Alessandra Parisio and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems while minimizing the overall energy use. The strategy uses

Johansson, Karl Henrik

317

The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in Texas, Report,Supply, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Sensfuß, F. ,in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios Marco

Nicolosi, Marco

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the nibbler cutting scenario is that the plasma scenario mostly got the higher scores than the nibbler scenario in the decommissioning cost and safety sections that have high weighting factors. Finally we decided that the plasma cutting scenario is appropriate to dismantle the thermal column. This study has a great meaning in that it can present a reliable scenario through the decommissioning DMU system while this work had only been done through a subjective evaluation in the past. The DMU system will be applied to the KRR-1 decommissioning project to obtain the best scenarios. We believe it will be a useful engineering tool for other nuclear facility decommissioning.

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun [150, Dukjin-Dong, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

2008-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

319

How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on the forecast of total energy demand. Based on this, weIndustrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios Nathaniel T.adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new

Aden, Nathaniel T.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

E-Print Network 3.0 - advanced scenario development Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Biology and Medicine ; Environmental Sciences and Ecology 20 Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Electricity 7.1 Summary: 's assumptions in AEO99. Policies evaluated as...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Technology Interactions among Low Carbon Energy Technologies: What Can We Learn from a Large Number of Scenarios?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes what can we learn from a large number of climate mitigation technology scenarios?

McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Wise, Marshall A.; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Ben; Lempert, Rob

2011-05-25T23:59:59.000Z

322

Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.

An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.

1999-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

323

Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation ($\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of $\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$. It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields. The latter decay channel avoids the most stringent constraints of the sequestered setting. Nevertheless, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small "by accident" as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

Arthur Hebecker; Patrick Mangat; Fabrizio Rompineve; Lukas T. Witkowski

2014-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

324

Thermodynamic Limits, Non-commutative Probability, and Quantum Entanglement  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We construct a rigourous model of quantum measurement. A two-state model of a negative temperature amplifier, such as a laser, is taken to a classical thermodynamic limit. In the limit, it becomes a classical measurement apparatus obeying the stochastic axioms of quantum mechanics. Thus we derive the probabilities from a deterministic Schroedinger's equation by procedures analogous to those of classical statistical mechanics. This requires making precise the notion of `macroscopic.'

Joseph F. Johnson

2005-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

325

Integrable probability: From representation theory to Macdonald processes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

These are lecture notes for a mini-course given at the Cornell Probability Summer School in July 2013. Topics include lozenge tilings of polygons and their representation theoretic interpretation, the (q,t)-deformation of those leading to the Macdonald processes, nearest neighbor dynamics on Macdonald processes, their limit to semi-discrete Brownian polymers, and large time asymptotic analysis of polymer's partition function.

Alexei Borodin; Leonid Petrov

2014-06-20T23:59:59.000Z

326

Linear Algebra and Probability For Computer Science Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, last para before section 9.3.1, 2nd and 3rd line: ". . . a 0.25 probability of a net utility of 4. p. 89, line before Theorem 4.23: c should be v. 6. p. 150 line -4. The inequalities should be -x + y. 7. p. 141 line -12 (including the formulas): "then s is only the line from p to q only

Davis, Ernest

327

Non-commutative probability I: Operator algebras background  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

be a compact set, then A = C(, C) is a C-algebra with complex conjugation f = ¯f and supremum norm f = f . Note-algebra is a concrete C-algebra". 3 #12;To do probability, want an analog of the L(). A von Neumann algebra general- izations of Mn then B(H). 8 #12;Random variables, real values hermitian (self

Anshelevich, Michael

328

Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

What is the probability that radiation caused a particular cancer  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Courts, lawyers, health physicists, physicians, and others are searching for a credible answer to the question posed in the title of this paper. The cases in which the question arises frequently stem from an individual that has cancer and they, or their next-of-kin, are convinced that a past radiation exposure - usually small - is responsible for causing it. An arithmetic expression of this problem is simple: the probability of causation by the radiation dose in question is equal to the risk of cancer from the radiation dose divided by the risk of cancer from all causes. The application of risk factors to this equation is not so simple. It must involve careful evaluation of the reliability of and variations in risk coefficients for development of cancer due to radiation exposure, other carcinogenic agents, and natural causes for the particular individual. Examination of our knowledge of these various factors indicates that a large range in the answers can result due to the variability and imprecision of the data. Nevertheless, the attempts to calculate and the probability that radiation caused the cancer is extremely useful to provide a gross perspective on the probability of causation. It will likely rule in or out a significant number of cases despite the limitations in our understandings of the etiology of cancer and the risks from various factors. For the remaining cases, a thoughtful and educated judgment based on selected data and circumstances of the case will also be needed before the expert can develop and support his opinion.

Voelz, G.L.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Scenarios of transition to chaos competition in low-temperature plasma  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dynamics of a fireball created in front of a positively biased electrode immersed into low-temperature plasma was experimentally investigated. By analyzing the time series of the oscillations of the current collected by the electrode, several successive scenarios of transitions to chaos were identified: by intermittencies, by cascade of sub-harmonic bifurcations and by quasi-periodicity (Ruelle-Takens scenario)

Dimitriu, D. G. [Faculty of Physics, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, 11 Carol I Blvd., RO-700506 Iasi (Romania)

2013-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

331

Newsletter No.7 NOV 2002TechnologyScenarios Knowledge and technology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Newsletter No.7 NOV 2002TechnologyScenarios Knowledge and technology are expected to be amongst Technology Scenarios (TES) System Analysis Department Risø National Laboratory P.O. Box 49 DK 4000 Roskilde-mapping, life cycle assessment, and risk analysis. As part of Risø, we profess an understanding of technology

332

Ontology-Based Services: Usage Scenarios and Test Deliverable TONES-D14  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ontology-Based Services: Usage Scenarios and Test Ontologies Deliverable TONES-D14 all 1 Free Participant: Hamburg University of Technology Reviewer: Bernardo Cuenca Grau Document Type: Deliverable In this deliverable we define a number of usage scenarios for tasks that have to be solved during the whole life

Moeller, Ralf

333

Energy Policy 33 (2005) 11171142 Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy Policy 33 (2005) 1117­1142 Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California Rebecca Ghanadana, *, Jonathan G. Koomeyb a The Energy and Resources Group (ERG), 310 Barrows Hall This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory

Kammen, Daniel M.

334

Presentation 2.4: Forest biorefining and implications for future wood energy scenarios Jack N. Saddler  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Presentation 2.4: Forest biorefining and implications for future wood energy scenarios Jack N Products Biotechnology at UBC Forest biorefining and implications for future wood energy scenarios W.mabee@ubc.ca International Seminar on Energy and the Forest Products Industry Rome, Italy: October 30 2006 Forest Products

335

Major accidents scenarios used for LUP and off-site emergency planning : Importance of kinetic description  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Major accidents scenarios used for LUP and off-site emergency planning : Importance of kinetic, INERIS shows a method enabling to integrate, as a second prioritisation criteria, the on-site and off-site. Keywords : Land Use Planning ; off-site emergency planning ; chemical accident scenario ; kinetic 1

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

336

Simple scenarios of onset of chaos in three-dimensional maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We give a qualitative description of two main routes to chaos in three-dimensional maps. We discuss Shilnikov scenario of transition to spiral chaos and a scenario of transition to discrete Lorenz-like and figure-eight strange attractors. The theory is illustrated by numerical analysis of three-dimensional Henon-like maps and Poincare maps in models of nonholonomic mechanics.

Alexander Gonchenko; Sergey Gonchenko; Alexey Kazakov; Dmitry Turaev

2014-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

337

An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 2 to 1 on". What is the engineer's probability for this event? Odds of "7 to 1 on": r = 7 probability 7 1 Solutions [Introduction to Probability; odds, Venn diagrams, decision trees] 1. Draw a decision tree

George, Glyn

340

North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement |  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:Year in3.pdfEnergyDepartment of Energy Advanced Framing -Nissan: ISO 50001Department

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298, and 323 K.Office ofMayPVREPORT TO THE2

342

Sandia National Laboratories: power outage modeling  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1developmentturbine bladelifetime ismobileparallelplantplasmapolymerpower flow

343

August 14, 2003 Power Outages Â… Announcement  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:YearRound-Up fromDepartmentTie Ltd: Scope ChangeL-01-06 AuditAugust 5, 2010 VIA U.S. MAIL andEllen

344

Systems and Services Outage Notification Policy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassiveSubmittedStatus TomAbout »LabSustainabilitySynthetic fuel concepthasRadiation

345

Reduced Probabilities of E2-Transitions in {sup 174}Yb  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the ground (gr) and exited states of even-even deformed nuclei with a phenomenological model, which takes into account the mixing of gr states, 0{sub n}{sup +}({beta}{sub n})-, 2{sub n}{sup +}({gamma}{sub n})- and {Kappa}{sup {pi}} 1{sub n}{sup +}- rotational bands. The calculation has been done for the isotope Yb. The energy spectra are found to be consistent with the energies from experimental data. The reduced probabilities of the electric quadrupole E2-transitions from {beta}{sub n} and {gamma}{sub n} band states are calculated and agree quite well with the experimental values.

Okhunov, A. A. [Quantum Science Center Department of Physics, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Institute for Nuclear Physics, Academy Science of Uzbekistan, 100214 Tashkent (Uzbekistan); Kassim, Hasan Abu [Quantum Science Center Department of Physics, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2011-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

346

Approximating Probability Density Functions with Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

). Thus, the parameters to be estimated are a 0k , a 1k , a 2k ,a 3k , b (j) 1k ,b (j) 2k and b (j) 3k . Define ? ? (k) (x;? mk ) (abbreviated ? ? (k) (x)) as the initial MTE approximation for PDF f X (x) in interval D k .To estimate the parameters ? mk... = {a 0mk ,a 1mk ,a 2mk ,a 3mk ,b (j) 1mk ,b (j) 2mk ,b (j) 3mk } in (1), the discrete approximation to KL divergence between the standard PDF and the MTE approximation is minimized sub- ject to continuity, probability mass and non-negativity constraints...

Cobb, Barry R.; Shenoy, Prakash P.; Rumi, Rafael

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The ?rst method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

Paulson, Patrick R.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hossain, Shamina S.

2011-04-16T23:59:59.000Z

348

Probability Tables for Mendelian Ratios with Small Numbers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-called ex- Total ...-...-..-..-....-.--. .9999 pected may lead to error in interpretation rather than serving as a valuable aid as it does with large numbers. Examples with other small numbers could be given, but this should iIIustrate the points... is set off so as to show the point beyond which the total probability in that direction is .0050 or less. Mendelian Ratios Combi- 1 130 121 112 10 3 9 4 8 5 7 6 6 7 5 8 4 9 3 10 2 11 .On95 0028 .O002 .. -- I ---- - 1 12 .0016 .0004...

Warwick, B. L. (Bruce L.)

1932-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A short course on measure and probability theories.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This brief Introduction to Measure Theory, and its applications to Probabilities, corresponds to the lecture notes of a seminar series given at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, during the spring of 2003. The goal of these seminars was to provide a minimal background to Computational Combustion scientists interested in using more advanced stochastic concepts and methods, e.g., in the context of uncertainty quantification. Indeed, most mechanical engineering curricula do not provide students with formal training in the field of probability, and even in less in measure theory. However, stochastic methods have been used more and more extensively in the past decade, and have provided more successful computational tools. Scientists at the Combustion Research Facility of Sandia National Laboratories have been using computational stochastic methods for years. Addressing more and more complex applications, and facing difficult problems that arose in applications showed the need for a better understanding of theoretical foundations. This is why the seminar series was launched, and these notes summarize most of the concepts which have been discussed. The goal of the seminars was to bring a group of mechanical engineers and computational combustion scientists to a full understanding of N. WIENER'S polynomial chaos theory. Therefore, these lectures notes are built along those lines, and are not intended to be exhaustive. In particular, the author welcomes any comments or criticisms.

PÔebay, Philippe Pierre

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Scenario guidance handbook for emergency-preparedness exercises at nuclear facilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As part of the Emergency Preparedness Implementation Appraisal Program conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the technical assistance of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), emergency preparedness exercises are observed on an annual basis at all licensed reactor facilities. One of the significant findings to arise from these observations was that a large number of the commonly observed problems originated in the design of the scenarios used as a basis for each exercise. In an effort to help eliminate some of these problems a scenario guidance handbook has been generated by PNL for the NRC to assist nuclear power plant licensees in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises.

Laughlin, G.J.; Martin, G.F.; Desrosiers, A.E.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ehlen, Mark Andrew (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Net-proton probability distribution in heavy ion collisions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We compute net-proton probability distributions in heavy ion collisions within the hadron resonance gas model. The model results are compared with data taken by the STAR Collaboration in Au-Au collisions at sqrt(s_{NN})= 200 GeV for different centralities. We show that in peripheral Au-Au collisions the measured distributions, and the resulting first four moments of net-proton fluctuations, are consistent with results obtained from the hadron resonance gas model. However, data taken in central Au-Au collisions differ from the predictions of the model. The observed deviations can not be attributed to uncertainties in model parameters. We discuss possible interpretations of the observed deviations.

P. Braun-Munzinger; B. Friman; F. Karsch; K. Redlich; V. Skokov

2011-07-21T23:59:59.000Z

353

Bayesian failure probability model sensitivity study. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Office of the Manager, National Communications System (OMNCS) has developed a system-level approach for estimating the effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) on the connectivity of telecommunications networks. This approach incorporates a Bayesian statistical model which estimates the HEMP-induced failure probabilities of telecommunications switches and transmission facilities. The purpose of this analysis is to address the sensitivity of the Bayesian model. This is done by systematically varying two model input parameters--the number of observations, and the equipment failure rates. Throughout the study, a non-informative prior distribution is used. The sensitivity of the Bayesian model to the noninformative prior distribution is investigated from a theoretical mathematical perspective.

Not Available

1986-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

354

Probable maximum flood control; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility.

DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L. [Bechtel National, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)

1991-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Seismic pulse propagation with constant Q and stable probability distributions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The one-dimensional propagation of seismic waves with constant Q is shown to be governed by an evolution equation of fractional order in time, which interpolates the heat equation and the wave equation. The fundamental solutions for the Cauchy and Signalling problems are expressed in terms of entire functions (of Wright type) in the similarity variable and their behaviours turn out to be intermediate between those for the limiting cases of a perfectly viscous fluid and a perfectly elastic solid. In view of the small dissipation exhibited by the seismic pulses, the nearly elastic limit is considered. Furthermore, the fundamental solutions for the Cauchy and Signalling problems are shown to be related to stable probability distributions with index of stability determined by the order of the fractional time derivative in the evolution equation.

Francesco Mainardi; Massimo Tomirotti

2010-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

356

How to Determine the Probability of the Higgs Boson Detection  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Higgs boson is the most important, though yet undiscovered ingredient of the standard model of particle physics. Its detection is therefore one of the most important goals of high energy physics that can guide future research in theoretical physics. Enormous efforts have been undertaken to prove the existence of the Higgs boson, and the physics community is excitedly awaiting the restart of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? The German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended betting at such controversial questions, and Stephen Hawking announced a $100 bet against the Higgs. But seriously, online prediction markets, which are a generalized form of betting, do provide the best possible probability estimates for future events. It is proposed that the scientific community uses this platforms for evaluation. See also an online description www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com.

Alexander Unzicker

2009-12-02T23:59:59.000Z

357

Matter-enhanced transition probabilities in quantum field theory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The relativistic quantum field theory is the unique theory that combines the relativity and quantum theory and is invariant under the Poincaré transformation. The ground state, vacuum, is singlet and one particle states are transformed as elements of irreducible representation of the group. The covariant one particles are momentum eigenstates expressed by plane waves and extended in space. Although the S-matrix defined with initial and final states of these states hold the symmetries and are applied to isolated states, out-going states for the amplitude of the event that they are detected at a finite-time interval T in experiments are expressed by microscopic states that they interact with, and are surrounded by matters in detectors and are not plane waves. These matter-induced effects modify the probabilities observed in realistic situations. The transition amplitudes and probabilities of the events are studied with the S-matrix, S[T], that satisfies the boundary condition at T. Using S[T], the finite-size corrections of the form of 1/T are found. The corrections to Fermi’s golden rule become larger than the original values in some situations for light particles. They break Lorentz invariance even in high energy region of short de Broglie wave lengths. -- Highlights: •S-matrix S[T] for the finite-time interval in relativistic field theory. •S[T] satisfies the boundary condition and gives correction of 1/T . •The large corrections for light particles breaks Lorentz invariance. •The corrections have implications to neutrino experiments.

Ishikawa, Kenzo, E-mail: ishikawa@particle.sci.hokudai.ac.jp; Tobita, Yutaka

2014-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

358

Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

2001-07-11T23:59:59.000Z

359

Influencing managerial cognition and decisions using scenarios for long-range planning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation presents empirical findings related to two aspects of long-range planning: scenario planning as a planning method and cognition of planners. Long-range planning situations are encountered when designing ...

Phadnis, Shardul Sharad, 1978-

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

1996-09-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

Crowe, R.D.

1996-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

362

Postdoctoral Scholar position Area: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURES SCENARIO DESIGN AND APPLICATIONS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Postdoctoral Scholar position Area: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURES SCENARIO DESIGN AND APPLICATIONS Fellow in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Job Description: The Enbridge Centre for Corporate Sustainability-doctoral fellow to explore how energy companies engage in planning for sustainable futures. More specifically

de Leon, Alex R.

363

Delaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource Standard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, state, federal and international agencies and nonprofit organizations. The Center is composed and development, environmental justice, conservation and renewable energy options, integrated resource planningDelaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource

Delaware, University of

364

E-Print Network 3.0 - assumed breakout scenario Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of the realized scenario (i.e., "standard" model or break-out... earlier than the remote brightening, argue against the break-out model at the early phase of this event... of...

365

Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010

Steward, D. M.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Batteries and electrochemical energy storage are central to any future alternative energy scenario. Future energy generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Batteries and electrochemical energy storage are central to any future alternative energy scenario. Future energy generation sources are likely to be intermittent, requiring storage capacity energy storage for uninterrupted power supply units, the electrical grid, and transportation. Of all

Kemner, Ken

367

E-Print Network 3.0 - architecture team-lunar scenario Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: architecture team-lunar scenario Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 The goal of software architecture...

368

Energy Demand and Emissions in Building in China: Scenarios and Policy Options  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China exerts great pressure on the energy supply and environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development in buildings, including urban residential, rural residential and service sectors (not...

Kejun, J.; Xiulian, H.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

LWR codes capability to address SFR BDBA scenarios: Modeling of the ABCOVE tests  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The sound background built-up in LWR source term analysis in case of a severe accident, make it worth to check the capability of LWR safety analysis codes to model accident SFR scenarios, at least in some areas. This paper gives a snapshot of such predictability in the area of aerosol behavior in containment. To do so, the AB-5 test of the ABCOVE program has been modeled with 3 LWR codes: ASTEC, ECART and MELCOR. Through the search of a best estimate scenario and its comparison to data, it is concluded that even in the specific case of in-containment aerosol behavior, some enhancements would be needed in the LWR codes and/or their application, particularly with respect to consideration of particle shape. Nonetheless, much of the modeling presently embodied in LWR codes might be applicable to SFR scenarios. These conclusions should be seen as preliminary as long as comparisons are not extended to more experimental scenarios. (authors)

Herranz, L. E.; Garcia, M. [Unit of Nuclear Safety Research, CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Morandi, S. [Nuclear and Industrial Plant Safety Team, Power Generation System Dept., RSE via Rubattino 54, 20134 Milano (Italy)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

B.3.3. The "doom scenario" (... or can we avoid it?) Page 55 The "doom scenario" (... or can we avoid it?)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, it is going to happen at some stage as oil and gas reserves are not unlimited. The question is: how soon are to be expected in the short-term. 1. Introduction The end of petrol (and natural gas) is not in itself a scenario and how brutally is this going to happen? Ten years ago, the world oil reserves were estimated to last

Boyer, Edmond

371

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. (Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)); Phifer, M.A. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering)

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

373

Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part I: The JET In-vessel Cryopump  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part I: The JET In-vessel Cryopump

374

Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part II: The JET LHCD Cryopump  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part II: The JET LHCD Cryopump

375

Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CO2 recovery and storage (CCS) Emissions after cuts (Technology Advance scenario (substantial C 0 emission reduction)) '

Komiyama, Ryoichi

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: An Occurrence-Mechanism Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: An Occurrence intersections, rear-end accidents are frequently the predominant accident type. These accidents result from to this deceleration. This paper mathematically represents this process, by expressing accident probability

Wang, Yinhai

377

Systematics of delayed neutron emission probabilities in medium mass nuclides (fission products)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The systematic behavior of emission probabilities was found to be determined by the nuclear pairing and the mass region of the precursor. The derivation of the systematics is based on a simplification of the general formula of the emission probability. The comparison made with the available experimental data leads to a semi- empirical formula for delayed neutron probabilities. This formula was used for the prediction of unknown values of emission probabilities for unidentified precursors.

Nir-El, Y

1976-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Ultra-LowEnergy Computingwith Noise: Energy-Performance-Probability Trade-offs*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ultra-LowEnergy Computingwith Noise: Energy-Performance-Probability Trade-offs* Pinar Korkrnaz with a probability p. Thispaper investigates the trade-o$s between the energy, pet$ormance and probability of design trade-offs associated with its speed (or performance), energy and p. The characterizationis

379

MTH734U-MTHM012 Topics in Probability & Stochastic Processes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MTH734U-MTHM012 Topics in Probability & Stochastic Processes Problem Sheet 9 1. Consider the 2 probabilities Pi,j(t) for i, j S. (c) Determine the limiting probabilities i for i S. 3. Sam Lacker) What is the generator matrix G? (b) What is the long-run proportion of time Sam is able to study? (c

Stark, Dudley

380

APPL: A Probability Programming Language Maj. Andrew G. GLEN, Diane L. EVANS, and Lawrence M. LEEMIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPL: A Probability Programming Language Maj. Andrew G. GLEN, Diane L. EVANS, and Lawrence M having arbitrary distributions. This arti- cle presents a prototype probability package named APPL (A probability software package, referred to as "A Prob- ability Programming Language" (APPL), that fills

Leemis, Larry

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

1. Department, Course Number, Title ORE 608, Probability and Statistics for Ocean Engineers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1. Department, Course Number, Title ORE 608, Probability and Statistics for Ocean Engineers 2-spectra, and practical applications in ocean engineering. Pre: 607 or consent. 4. Prerequisites Calculus Probability and ocean engineering. 7. Topics Covered Random Variables Monte Carlo Methods Probability Density Functions

Frandsen, Jannette B.

382

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Some Practice surviving a current of 3 µA for 2 hours is "4 to 1 against". What is the engineer's probability for this event? (b) An engineer states that the probability of another prototype microchip surviving a current

George, Glyn

383

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 5 Probability distributions, expectation, variance 1. A discrete function of x is defined by ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 8 3 4 1, 1 0 0 otherwis x p x x e = - + = = (a) Verify that p(x) is a well-defined probability

George, Glyn

384

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 2 MN for 25 years is "7 to 1 on". What is the engineer's probability for this event? 3. The event E [Introduction to Probability; odds, Venn diagrams, decision trees] 1. Draw a decision tree, involving choice

George, Glyn

385

Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure ? (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents ?{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)

2014-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

386

Delayed neutron emission probabilities of Li-F nuclides  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Delayed neutron emission probabilities (P{sub n}) have been measured for 18 nuclides ranging from {sup 9}Li to {sup 25}F. Neutron-rich nuclides were produced by reaction of 800 MeV p on a {sup 232}Th target at the LAMPF accelerator at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Recoil nuclides were individually identified as to their mass, nuclear charged, and ionic charge by use of the Time-of-Flight Isochronous (TOFI) spectrometer. The distribution of time intervals between the arrival of a specific ion and the subsequent detection of a neutron was determined. The P{sub n} was calculated from the total number of ions observed, the initial neutron count rate, the neutron counting efficiency, and the half-life. The technique is shown to be valid for half-lives ranging from 10 ms ({sup 15}B) to 4 s ({sup 17}N) and for P{sub n} values as low as 0.3% ({sup 13}B). Delayed neutron emission has been measured for {sup 12}Be, {sup 14}B, {sup 17}C, {sup 18}N, {sup 21}N, and {sup 25}F for the first time. A small branch for beta-delayed two-neutron emission was observed in {sup 15}B (P{sub 2n} = 0.4 {plus minus} 0.2%). 14 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Reeder, P.L.; Warner, R.A.; Hensley, W.K. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Vieira, D.J.; Wouters, J.M. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA))

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

A probable giant planet imaged in the Beta Pictoris disk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the discovery of its dusty disk in 1984, Beta Pictoris has become the prototype of young early-type planetary systems, and there are now various indications that a massive Jovian planet is orbiting the star at ~ 10 AU. However, no planets have been detected around this star so far. Our goal was to investigate the close environment of Beta Pic, searching for planetary companion(s). Deep adaptive-optics L'-band images of Beta Pic were recorded using the NaCo instrument at the Very Large Telescope. A faint point-like signal is detected at a projected distance of ~ 8 AU from the star, within the North-East side of the dust disk. Various tests were made to rule out with a good confidence level possible instrumental or atmospheric artifacts. The probability of a foreground or background contaminant is extremely low, based in addition on the analysis of previous deep Hubble Space Telescope images. The object L'=11.2 apparent magnitude would indicate a typical temperature of ~1500 K and a mass of ~ 8 Jovian masses. If confirmed, it could explain the main morphological and dynamical peculiarities of the Beta Pic system. The present detection is unique among A-stars by the proximity of the resolved planet to its parent star. Its closeness and location inside the Beta Pic disk suggest a formation process by core accretion or disk instabilities rather than a binary-like formation process.

A. -M. Lagrange; D. Gratadour; G. Chauvin; T. Fusco; D. Ehrenreich; D. Mouillet; G. Rousset; D. Rouan; F. Allard; E. Gendron; J. Charton; L. Mugnier; P. Rabou; J. Montri; F. Lacombe

2008-11-21T23:59:59.000Z

388

Probability of detection models for eddy current NDE methods  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of probability of detection (POD) models for a variety of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods is motivated by a desire to quantify the variability introduced during the process of testing. Sources of variability involved in eddy current methods of NDE include those caused by variations in liftoff, material properties, probe canting angle, scan format, surface roughness and measurement noise. This thesis presents a comprehensive POD model for eddy current NDE. Eddy current methods of nondestructive testing are used widely in industry to inspect a variety of nonferromagnetic and ferromagnetic materials. The development of a comprehensive POD model is therefore of significant importance. The model incorporates several sources of variability characterized by a multivariate Gaussian distribution and employs finite element analysis to predict the signal distribution. The method of mixtures is then used for estimating optimal threshold values. The research demonstrates the use of a finite element model within a probabilistic framework to the spread in the measured signal for eddy current nondestructive methods. Using the signal distributions for various flaw sizes the POD curves for varying defect parameters have been computed. In contrast to experimental POD models, the cost of generating such curves is very low and complex defect shapes can be handled very easily. The results are also operator independent.

Rajesh, S.N.

1993-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

389

Efficiency issues related to probability density function comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The CANDID project (Comparison Algorithm for Navigating Digital Image Databases) employs probability density functions (PDFs) of localized feature information to represent the content of an image for search and retrieval purposes. A similarity measure between PDFs is used to identify database images that are similar to a user-provided query image. Unfortunately, signature comparison involving PDFs is a very time-consuming operation. In this paper, we look into some efficiency considerations when working with PDFS. Since PDFs can take on many forms, we look into tradeoffs between accurate representation and efficiency of manipulation for several data sets. In particular, we typically represent each PDF as a Gaussian mixture (e.g. as a weighted sum of Gaussian kernels) in the feature space. We find that by constraining all Gaussian kernels to have principal axes that are aligned to the natural axes of the feature space, computations involving these PDFs are simplified. We can also constrain the Gaussian kernels to be hyperspherical rather than hyperellipsoidal, simplifying computations even further, and yielding an order of magnitude speedup in signature comparison. This paper illustrates the tradeoffs encountered when using these constraints.

Kelly, P.M.; Cannon, M.; Barros, J.E.

1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Hilbert's Sixth Problem: Descriptive Statistics as New Foundations for Probability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hay esbozas tras las cuales las probabilidades se cuentan como la fundaci\\'on de la teor\\'\\i a matem\\'atica de las estad\\'\\i sticas. Mas la significaci\\'on f\\'\\i sica de las probabilidades matem\\'aticas son oscuros, muy poco entendidos. Parecer\\'\\i a mejor que las probabilidades f\\'\\i sicas sean fundadas en las estad\\'\\i sticas descriptivas de datos fisicales. Se trate una teor\\'\\i a que as\\'\\i responde a una cuestiona de Hilbert propuesta en su Problema N\\'umero Seis, la axiomatizaci\\'on de la F\\'\\i sica. Est\\'a basada en la auto-correlaci\\'on de los series temporales. Casi todas de las funciones de auto-correlaci\\'on de las trayector\\'\\i as de un sistema din\\'amico lineal (de lo cual el n\\'umero de sus grados de libertad sea bastante grande) son todas aproximadamente iguales, no importan las condiciones iniciales, a\\'un si el sistema no sea erg\\'odico, como conjetur\\'o Khintchine en 1943. Usually, the theory of probability has been made the foundation for the theory of statistics. But the physical significa...

Johnson, Joseph F

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

ADVANCED PROBABILITY 24 lectures This course aims to cover the advanced topics at the core of research in probability theory. There is an emphasis on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

's theorem. Conditional expectation Discrete case, Gaussian case, conditional density functions; existence. Appropriate books R. Durrett Probability: Theory and Examples. Wadsworth 1991 O. Kallenberg Foundations of research in probability theory. There is an emphasis on techniques needed for the rigorous analysis

Sousi, Perla

392

Modeling the probability of excitation and the defective part level as testing progresses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-at fault at Point P 10 Example circuit with OR bridge between points P and 9 . The probability of excitation decreases as testing progresses. 12 16 Variation in probability of excitation between vector sets for c2670. . 18 Variation in probability... of excitation between vector sets for c5315. . 19 Probability of excitation curve for c2670. Probability of excitation curve for c5315. 21 21 The defect level. 24 10 12 13 14 15 C432 MPG-D prediction: r = 4. 275 A = 0. 663 . C499 MPG-D prediction: r...

Dworak, Jennifer Lynn

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

2009-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

394

Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

2013-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

396

TURBULENCE IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL DEFLAGRATION MODEL FOR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE. II. INTERMITTENCY AND THE DEFLAGRATION-TO-DETONATION TRANSITION PROBABILITY  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The delayed detonation model describes the observational properties of the majority of Type Ia supernovae very well. Using numerical data from a three-dimensional deflagration model for Type Ia supernovae, the intermittency of the turbulent velocity field and its implications on the probability of a deflagration-to-detonation (DDT) transition are investigated. From structure functions of the turbulent velocity fluctuations, we determine intermittency parameters based on the log-normal and the log-Poisson models. The bulk of turbulence in the ash regions appears to be less intermittent than predicted by the standard log-normal model and the She-Leveque model. On the other hand, the analysis of the turbulent velocity fluctuations in the vicinity of the flame front by Roepke suggests a much higher probability of large velocity fluctuations on the grid scale in comparison to the log-normal intermittency model. Following Pan et al., we computed probability density functions for a DDT for the different distributions. The determination of the total number of regions at the flame surface, in which DDTs can be triggered, enables us to estimate the total number of events. Assuming that a DDT can occur in the stirred flame regime, as proposed by Woosley et al., the log-normal model would imply a delayed detonation between 0.7 and 0.8 s after the beginning of the deflagration phase for the multi-spot ignition scenario used in the simulation. However, the probability drops to virtually zero if a DDT is further constrained by the requirement that the turbulent velocity fluctuations reach about 500 km s{sup -1}. Under this condition, delayed detonations are only possible if the distribution of the velocity fluctuations is not log-normal. From our calculations follows that the distribution obtained by Roepke allow for multiple DDTs around 0.8 s after ignition at a transition density close to 1 x 10{sup 7} g cm{sup -3}.

Schmidt, W.; Niemeyer, J. C. [Institut fuer Astrophysik, Universitaet Goettingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, D-37077 Goettingen (Germany); Ciaraldi-Schoolmann, F. [Lehrstuhl fuer Astronomie und Astrophysik, Universitaet Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, D-97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Roepke, F. K.; Hillebrandt, W., E-mail: schmidt@astro.physik.uni-goettingen.d [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany)

2010-02-20T23:59:59.000Z

397

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E. [RBAC, Inc., Sherman Oaks, CA

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants.

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Valentine, G.; Crowe, B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)] [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested.

Benetto, Enrico [ECOINNOVA France, 47 rue M. Flandin, 69003 Lyon Cedex 3 (France)]. E-mail: benetto@ecoinnova.it; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia [INSA Lyon-LAEPSI, 20 rue A.Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex, since November 2005: INSA Toulouse-LIPE, 135 av. de Rangueil, 31077 Toulouse cedex France (France)]. E-mail: ligia.barna@insa-toulouse.fr; Perrodin, Yves [ENTPE-LSE, rue M.Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin cedex (France)]. E-mail: perrodin@entpe.fr

2007-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

402

Risk Mathematics and Quantum Games on Quantum Risk Structures - A Nuclear War Scenario Game  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantum game theory is combined with risk mathematics' formalism to provide an approach to evolutionary scenario analysis. The formalism is addressed in its general form and is then applied to an extreme risks modelling case, to model a coevolving dynamical web of systemic situations representing the evolution of the regional tensions between two countries with nuclear weapons. The model's results are addressed regarding the potential for regional nuclear conflict to take place, and how evolutionary scenario analysis may contribute to nuclear war threat assessment and dynamical risk analysis. A final discussion is provided in what regards risk mathematics based on the evolutionary approach to risk assessement resulting from the combination of quantum game theory, morphic web representations and scenario analysis.

Carlos Pedro Gonçalves

2012-11-28T23:59:59.000Z

403

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

NONE

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Double Ended Guillotine Break in a Prismatic Block VHTR Lower Plenum Air Ingress Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The double ended guillotine break leading to density-driven air ingress has been identified as a low probability yet high consequence event for Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The lower plenum of the VHTR contains the core support structure...

Hartley, Jessica

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

406

Scenario-Based Fault-Tolerant Model Predictive Control for Diesel-Electric Marine Power Plant  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Scenario-Based Fault-Tolerant Model Predictive Control for Diesel-Electric Marine Power Plant where diesel gener- ator sets (a diesel engine connected to a generator) produce electrical power, which Email: torstein.bo@itk.ntnu.no, tor.arne.johansen@itk.ntnu.no Abstract--Diesel-electric propulsion

Johansen, Tor Arne

407

Novel scenarios for sustainable waterway sediments management deduced from a decision-support tool  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Novel scenarios for sustainable waterway sediments management deduced from a decision-support tool-(0)-238-643504 E-mail: b.lemiere@brgm.fr Introduction: Sediments accumulating in waterways represent a triple dredging releases millions of m3 of sediments, from which a large part is contaminated or even polluted

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

408

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics simulations of the core-degenerate scenario for Type Ia supernovae  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The core-degenerate (CD) scenario for type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) involves the merger of the hot core of an asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star and a white dwarf, and might contribute a non-negligible fraction of all thermonuclear supernovae. Despite its potential interest, very few studies, and based on only crude simplifications, have been devoted to investigate this possible scenario, compared with the large efforts invested to study some other scenarios. Here we perform the first three-dimensional simulations of the merger phase, and find that this process can lead to the formation of a massive white dwarf, as required by this scenario. We consider two situations, according to the mass of the circumbinary disk formed around the system during the final stages of the common envelope phase. If the disk is massive enough, the stars merge on a highly eccentric orbit. Otherwise, the merger occurs after the circumbinary disk has been ejected and gravitational wave radiation has brought the stars close to the Roche...

Aznar-Siguán, G; Lorén-Aguilar, P; Soker, N; Kashi, A

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH FOR PREDICTING FAILURE SCENARIOS IN NUCLEAR SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in an irreversible manner. The attractiveness of prognostics for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident management comes1 A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH FOR PREDICTING FAILURE SCENARIOS IN NUCLEAR SYSTEMS Enrico Zio, Francesco Di Maio, Marco Stasi Energy Department, Polytechnic of Milan Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano, Italy

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

410

Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario John C. Moore1 , Annette Rinke1,2 , Xiaoyong Yu1 , Duoying Ji1 , Xuefeng Cui1 , Yan Li3 , Kari Alterskjær4 , Jón Egill Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark Abstract We analyze simulated sea ice

Robock, Alan

411

Search for neutral Higgs bosons in CP-conserving and CP-violating MSSM scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report summarizes the final results from the OPAL collaboration on searches for neutral Higgs bosons predicted by the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). CP-conserving and for the first time at LEP CP-violating scenarios are studied. New scenarios are also included, which aim to set the stage for Higgs searches at future colliders. The results are based on the data collected with the OPAL detector at e+e- centre-of-mass energies up to 209 GeV. The data are consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model with no Higgs boson produced. Model-independent limits are derived for the cross-section of a number of events topologies motivated by prediction of the MSSM. Limits on Higgs boson masses and other MSSM parameters are obtained for a number of representative MSSM benchmark scenarios. For example, in the CP-conserving scenario mh-max where the MSSM parameters are adjusted to predict the largest range of values for mh at each tan beta, and for a top quark mass of 174.3 GeV, the domain 0.784.5 ...

Abbiendi, G; Åkesson, P F; Alexander, G; Allison, J; Amaral, P; Anagnostou, G; Anderson, K J; Asai, S; Axen, D A; Azuelos, Georges; Bailey, I; Barberio, E; Barillari, T; Barlow, R J; Batley, J Richard; Bechtle, P; Behnke, T; Bell, K W; Bell, P J; Bella, G; Bellerive, A; Benelli, G; Bethke, Siegfried; Biebel, O; Boeriu, O; Bock, P; Boutemeur, M; Braibant, S; Brigliadori, L; Brown, R M; Büsser, K; Burckhart, H J; Campana, S; Carnegie, R K; Carter, A A; Carter, J R; Chang, C Y; Charlton, D G; Ciocca, C; Csilling, A; Cuffiani, M; Dado, S; De, A; Roeck, A D; De Wolf, E A; Desch, Klaus; Dienes, B; Donkers, M; Dubbert, J; Duchovni, E; Duckeck, G; Duerdoth, I P; Etzion, E; Fabbri, Franco Luigi; Feld, L; Ferrari, P; Fiedler, F; Fleck, I; Ford, M; Frey, A; Gagnon, P; Gary, J W; Gaycken, G; Geich-Gimbel, C; Giacomelli, G; Giacomelli, P; Giunta, M; Goldberg, J; Gross, E; Grunhaus, Jacob; Gruwé, M; Günther, P O; Sen-Gupta, A; Hajdu, C; Hamann, M; Hanson, G G; Harel, A; Hauschild, M; Hawkes, C M; Hawkings, R; Hemingway, Richard J; Herten, G; Heuer, R D; Hill, J C; Hoffman, K; Horváth, D; Igo-Kemenes, P; Ishii, K; Jeremie, H; Jovanovic, P; Junk, T R; Kanaya, N; Kanzaki, J; Karlen, Dean A; Kawagoe, K; Kawamoto, T; Keeler, Richard K; Kellogg, R G; Kennedy, B W; Kluth, S; Kobayashi, T; Kobel, M; Komamiya, S; Kramer, T; Krieger, P; Von Krogh, J; Krüger, K; Kühl, T; Kupper, M; Lafferty, G D; Landsman, Hagar Yaël; Lanske, D; Layter, J G; Lellouch, D; Letts, J; Levinson, L; Lillich, J; Lloyd, S L; Loebinger, F K; Lü, J; Ludwig, A; Ludwig, J; Mader, W; Marcellini, S; Martin, A J; Masetti, G; Mashimo, T; Mättig, P; McKenna, J A; McPherson, R A; Meijers, F; Menges, W; Merritt, F S; Mes, H; Meyer, N; Michelini, Aldo; Mihara, S; Mikenberg, G; Miller, D J; Moed, S; Mohr, W; Mori, T; Mutter, A; Nagai, K; Nakamura, I; Nanjo, H; Neal, H A; Nisius, R; O'Neale, S W; Oh, A; Oreglia, M J; Orito, S; Pahl, C; Pásztor, G; Pater, J R; Pilcher, J E; Pinfold, J L; Plane, D E; Poli, B; Pooth, O; Przybycien, M B; Quadt, A; Rabbertz, K; Rembser, C; Renkel, P; Roney, J M; Rozen, Y; Runge, K; Sachs, K; Saeki, T; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, E; Schaile, A D; Schaile, O; Scharff-Hansen, P; Schieck, J; Schörner-Sadenius, T; Schröder, M; Schumacher, M; Scott, W G; Seuster, R; Shears, T G; Shen, B C; Sherwood, P; Skuja, A; Smith, A M; Sobie, R J; Söldner-Rembold, S; Spanó, F; Stahl, A; Strom, D; Ströhmer, R; Tarem, S; Tasevsky, M; Teuscher, R; Thomson, M A; Torrence, E; Toya, D; Tran, P; Trigger, I; Trócsányi, Z L; Tsur, E; Turner-Watson, M F; Ueda, I; Ujvári, B; Vollmer, C F; Vannerem, P; Vertesi, R; Verzocchi, M; Voss, H; Vossebeld, Joost Herman; Ward, C P; Ward, D R; Watkins, P M; Watson, A T; Watson, N K; Wells, P S; Wengler, T; Wermes, N; Wilson, G W; Wilson, J A; Wolf, G; Wyatt, T R; Yamashita, S; Zer-Zion, D; Zivkovic, L

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Ris Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risø Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems 3 Introduction In evaluations of long term energy forecasts made in the past the conclusion often is that a large number on internationally recognised scientific material". One key observation in a recent evaluation of long term energy

413

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany Volker Krey1 , Dag and Technology Evaluation (IEF-STE), 52425 Jülich, Germany 2) DIW Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 5, 14195 Berlin, Germany 3) �ko-Institut, Novalisstr. 10, 10115 Berlin, Germany Abstract Prices of oil and other fossil

414

Invited Feature History and scenarios of future development of Baltic Sea eutrophication  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Invited Feature History and scenarios of future development of Baltic Sea eutrophication Maren Voss: eutrophication climatic changes land use models catchment area Baltic Sea a b s t r a c t Nutrient loads from watersheds, atmospheric deposition, and cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation have led to eutrophication

Dippner, Joachim W.

415

On the Energy Efficiency of Cognitive Radios -A Study of the Ad Hoc Wireless LAN Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and determine if its usage can prove energy efficient in portable devices. Through this work we makeOn the Energy Efficiency of Cognitive Radios - A Study of the Ad Hoc Wireless LAN Scenario Anm of achieving better communication performance on selected spectrum. The benefits in terms of reduced energy

Namboodiri, Vinod

416

Are Cognitive Radios Energy Efficient? A Study of the Wireless LAN Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and could result in a rapid depletion of the lifetime of energy constrained devices like PDAs, Laptops on energy consumption and determine if its usage can prove energy-efficient in portable devices. We makeAre Cognitive Radios Energy Efficient? A Study of the Wireless LAN Scenario Vinod Namboodiri

Namboodiri, Vinod

417

Analysing forest sustainability under various climate change scenarios: a case study in northern Scotland  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysing forest sustainability under various climate change scenarios: a case study in northern to measure and assess forest sustainability. The Northern ToSIA (Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment) project is focussed on developing tools for assessing the sustainability of forest based activities

418

Direct Discovery Prospects for the Light CP-odd Higgs Boson of NMSSM Ideal Higgs Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Direct Discovery Prospects for the Light CP-odd Higgs Boson of NMSSM Ideal Higgs Scenarios Jack on the following papers with R. Dermisek: · New constraints on a light CP-odd Higgs boson and related NMSSM Ideal CP-odd Higgs boson at the Tevatron and LHC. Published in Phys.Rev.D81:055001,2010, arXiv:0911

California at Santa Cruz, University of

419

Zero-Emission Vehicle Scenario Cost Analysis Using A Fuzzy Set-Based Framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a small percentage of EV sales with the ZEV mandate). WithNow, a portion of the 10% EV sales mandate can be composedSales - High Produciton Volume Scenario Subcompact Vehicle Chassis Manufacturing Costs GM Ovonics Projection of Selling Prices of NiMH EV

Lipman, Timothy E.

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands -involvement of users  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the impacts of climate change + for adaptation strategies To ensure that the developed climate scenarios required, because users' requirements can be very diverse and may change over time Meetings with climate of users and limitations to deliver certain types of climate data Adapt information and communication

Haak, Hein

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

20-06-061EUSUSTEL, Brussels Results scenario comparison WP 5.2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, taking assumptions on fuel prices, technological development, policies, etc. into consideration. 5 prices than oil prices · Four technology development scenarios, regarding electricity generation · GHG: Short-term risks to energy security. Oil prices have broken $50 a barrel. · WEO 2005: "Middle East

422

Predictions of Dynamic Behavior under Pressure for Two Scenarios to Explain Water Anomalies Pradeep Kumar,1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of maximum correlation length in the (T, P) plane. Response functions, such as the isobaric heat capacity CP crossover is independent of whether water at very low temperature is characterized by a ``liquid-liquid scenarios are commonly used to interpret the anomalies of water [1,2]: (i) The liquid-liquid critical point

Franzese, Giancarlo

423

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low under Climate Change Scenarios* PABLO IMBACH,1 LUIS MOLINA,1 BRUNO LOCATELLI,# OLIVIER ROUPSARD,1,@ GIL MAHE´ ,& RONALD NEILSON,**,&& LENIN CORRALES,11 MARKO SCHOLZE,## AND PHILIPPE CIAIS @@ 1 Climate Change

Boyer, Edmond

424

SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids ­ district-size "smart" electricity networks electricity grid management expensive and complex. Differences between consumption troughs and peaks (e for private use. Private users were so far exclusively consumers, now they may get the capability

Diaconescu, Ada

425

Economic Impacts of the Arkstorm Scenario1 Ian Sue Wing1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Impacts of the Arkstorm Scenario1 Ian Sue Wing1 ; Adam Z. Rose2 ; and Anne M. Wein3 2 3 equilibrium model of the California economy to perform this economic consequence analysis.8 Economic and wind damages, economic impacts; business18 interruption; economic resilience; computable general

Wing, Ian Sue

426

Our scenario is akin to the magnetic furnace model proposed by Axford and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Our scenario is akin to the magnetic furnace model proposed by Axford and McKenzie (14­16) and to ideas invoking reconnection of mesoscale loops (38, 39). We adopt from the furnace model the idea. However, our model of the nascent solar wind is intrinsically 3-D, and the magnetic field geometry

Pe'er, Dana

427

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

428

Evaluating eXtreme Scenario-based Design in a Distributed Agile Team  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA 24061-0106 mccricks@cs.vt.edu #12;Introduction Agile software development exploring ways to integrate usability into agile software development methodologies. However, they do with Meridium, Inc. to look at how eXtreme Scenario-based Design (XSBD), an agile usability approach developed

429

Rip Singularity Scenario and Bouncing Universe in a Chaplygin Gas Dark Energy Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We choose a modified Chaplygin Gas Dark energy model for considering some its cosmological behaviors. In this regards, we study different Rip singularity scenarios and bouncing model of the universe in context of this model. We show that by using suitable parameters can explain some cosmological aspects of the model.

S. Davood Sadatian

2013-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

430

Century Climate Change Scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

21st Century Climate Change Scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled Atmosphere The SAMM (Sea Atmosphere Mediterranean Model) has been developed to study the climate evolution significantly amplifies the climate change signal over large parts of Europe with respect to the corresponding

431

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. F. Sevault, S. Somot, M. Dqu  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. F. Sevault, S. Somot, M. Déqué METEO.somot@meteo.fr michel.deque@meteo.fr ABSTRACT The question of the evolution of the Mediterranean Sea under the climatic is in consequence affected. 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is scientifically established and globally described

Ribes, Aurélien

432

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Tegen, S.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

High-resolution population grids and future scenarios for Tanzania Philip J. Platts & Ruth D. Swetnam  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

this grid and the LandScan grid to remove all persons from these protected areas (Single Map Algebra Tool1 High-resolution population grids and future scenarios for Tanzania Philip J. Platts & Ruth D, were obtained by hindcasting the LandScan grid on a ward-by-ward basis, such that ward totals matched

Marchant, Rob

434

Subjective evaluation of HDTV stereoscopic videos in IPTV scenarios using absolute category rating  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Subjective evaluation of HDTV stereoscopic videos in IPTV scenarios using absolute category rating.Sjöströmc a Dept. of NetLab: IPTV, Video and Display Quality, Acreo AB, Sweden b Dept. of Image and Video at the same time it inevitably brings quality degradations to the processed video. This paper investigated

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

435

cancer indicates a similar scenario, whereby MET amplification and mutation in the T790  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

cancer indicates a similar scenario, whereby MET amplification and mutation in the T790 residue- resistant forms of the cancer-associated kinase BCR­ABL have enhanced oncogenicity, there is growing spectrum of cancers, not just those with driver kinase mutations, might be sensitive to cocktails of kinase

Weiblen, George D

436

Issues and Scenarios for Self-Managing Grid Middleware Philippe Collet  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Issues and Scenarios for Self-Managing Grid Middleware Philippe Collet Université de Nice Sophia resources, heterogeneity of hardware and software operated or incompatibilities between software components to the grid middleware. We also outline a flexible self-adaptive framework that aims at using model

Boyer, Edmond

437

Building Scenarios from a Heterogeneous Alert Oliver M. Dain and Robert K. Cunningham  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Building Scenarios from a Heterogeneous Alert Stream Oliver M. Dain and Robert K. Cunningham and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Air Force. Oliver M. Dain and Robert K. Cunningham structure capable of discovering large scale coordinated at- tacks[3]. Valdes and Skinner have studied

438

Persisting cold extremes under 21stcentury warming scenarios Evan Kodra,1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Persisting cold extremes under 21stcentury warming scenarios Evan Kodra,1,2 Karsten Steinhaeuser,1 27 April 2011. [1] Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold. The gridbased intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three

Minnesota, University of

439

Abstract --Developing software for mobile or ad hoc scenarios is very cost intensive. Different software and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for an appropriate development support for devices with short life cycles. Third-party solutions often do not reachAbstract -- Developing software for mobile or ad hoc scenarios is very cost intensive. Different processors and big memories are available in principle, they con- sume a great amount of valuable battery

Steimann, Friedrich

440

Wedge decomposition analysis: Application to SRES and Post-SRES Scenarios Jeffery B. Greenblatt1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is a reduction of 1 GtC/yr of CO2 emissions in 2050. We illustrate the method by reporting comparisons of well in emissions between any two CO2 emissions trajectories as a sum of four terms, each associated with a broad using the MESSAGE model [2, 3]. In these scenarios, the CO2 emission rates grow from approximately 7

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

A comparison of the initial and conditional probabilities for dry-day sequences in Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

improves with increasing threshold. I rom this ir formation a romngram was constructed for th& purpose of graph Lcaily estimating the conditional probability given a value of the initial probability (for. any day t). Original. regression equations were... modified such that the modified regression lir ca conformed to theoretically correct con liticns and parsed through point (1, 1) of t' he. nomogram. The nocitivc r . latior el, ip is maintained bctwccn t!. e initial aud conc!itionai probabilities...

Fresh, Herman Elwood

1972-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Double-Slit Experiment and Quantum Theory Event-Probability Interpretation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this article the propagation of pointlike event probabilities in space is considered. Double-Slit experiment is described in detail. New interpretation of Quantum Theory is formulated.

G. Quznetsov

2010-02-18T23:59:59.000Z

443

E-Print Network 3.0 - analyses generated probability Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

to automatically generate the SW set for every Summary: -lexical probabilities on the task of analysis assignment. Here one or more analyses of an ambiguous word are...

444

Probability Estimation of CO2 Leakage Through Faults at Geologic Carbon Sequestration Sites  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Leakage of CO{sub 2} and brine along faults at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites is a primary concern for storage integrity. The focus of this study is on the estimation of the probability of leakage along faults or fractures. This leakage probability is controlled by the probability of a connected network of conduits existing at a given site, the probability of this network encountering the CO{sub 2} plume, and the probability of this network intersecting environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage. This work is designed to fit into a risk assessment and certification framework that uses compartments to represent vulnerable resources such as potable groundwater, health and safety, and the near-surface environment. The method we propose includes using percolation theory to estimate the connectivity of the faults, and generating fuzzy rules from discrete fracture network simulations to estimate leakage probability. By this approach, the probability of CO{sub 2} escaping into a compartment for a given system can be inferred from the fuzzy rules. The proposed method provides a quick way of estimating the probability of CO{sub 2} or brine leaking into a compartment. In addition, it provides the uncertainty range of the estimated probability.

Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curt; Finsterle, Stefan; Jordan, Preston; Zhang, Keni

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Modeling Tidal Freshwater Marsh Sustainability in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Under a Broad Suite of Potential Future Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conductedanalysis that includes 450 different future scenariosrise in the region. Of the 450 scenarios, 120 APRIL 2015

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Schoellhamer, David H.

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix.

Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

1986-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Probability-density function for energy perturbations of isolated optical pulses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probability-density function for energy perturbations of isolated optical pulses C. J. Mc to determine the probability-density function (PDF) for noise-induced energy perturbations of isolated (solitary) optical pulses in fiber communication systems. The analytical formula is consistent

Lakoba, Taras I.

448

Probably the best simple PID tuning rules in the world Sigurd Skogestad  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probably the best simple PID tuning rules in the world Sigurd Skogestad #3; Department of Chemical This is the version distributed at the meeting where the ZN-PID tunings (probably incorrectly) are assumed to be given PID tuning rules of Rivera, Morari and Skogestad (1986) which have achieved widespread industrial

Skogestad, Sigurd

449

Beta oscillations correlate with the probability of perceiving rivalrous visual stimuli  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Beta oscillations correlate with the probability of perceiving rivalrous visual stimuli Department large changes in power in the beta range (14­30 Hz) at the time of a perceptual switch. More importantly, during a stable perception, beta power correlates with the probability of a perception. Specifically

450

Statistical mechanical theory for steady state systems. V. Nonequilibrium probability density  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Statistical mechanical theory for steady state systems. V. Nonequilibrium probability density Phil is shown to be much more efficient for the thermal conductivity of a Lennard-Jones fluid than the Green probability densities for hydrodynamic transport, for time-dependent mechanical work, and for nonequilibrium

Attard, Phil

451

Recalculated probability of M !!!!!! 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Recalculated probability of M !!!!!! 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey Tom Parsons U); KEYWORDS: earthquake probability, Sea of Marmara, seismic hazard, Turkey, stress interaction, North of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B05304, doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. 1. Introduction [2] The North

452

Microstructure of two-phase random media. I. The n-point probability functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Department ofMechanical Engineering. General Motors Institute. Flint. Michigan 48502 G. Stell Departments ofMechanical Engineering and Chemistry. State University ofNew York at Stony Brook. Stony Brook. New York 11794 (Received be characterized by a set of general n -point probability functions, which give the probability of finding

Torquato, Salvatore

453

Proceedings of the First International Conference on Neutrosophy, Neutrosophic Logic, Neutrosophic Set, Neutrosophic Probability and Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Papers on neutrosophy (a generalization of dialectics), on neutrosophic logic, set, probability and statistics (generalizations of fuzzy logic, fuzzy set, and imprecise probability respectively), by Florentin Smarandache, Jean Dezert, S. Bhattacharya, Andrzej Buller, M. Khoshnevisan, S. Singh, Feng Liu, Gh. C. Dinulescu-Campina, Chris Lucas, and C. Gershenson.

Florentin Smarandache; Jean Dezert; S. Bhattacharya; Andrzej Buller; M. Khoshnevisan; S. Singh; Feng Liu; Gh. C. Dinulescu-Campina; Chris Lucas; C. Gershenson

2003-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

454

Electrical Estimation of Conditional Probability for Maximum-likelihood Based PMD Mitigation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Xi, T¨ulay Adali, and John Zweck Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering UniversityElectrical Estimation of Conditional Probability for Maximum-likelihood Based PMD Mitigation Wenze probability density functions in the presence of both all-order PMD and ASE noise are estimated electronically

Zweck, John

455

LES/probability density function approach for the simulation of an ethanol spray flame  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LES/probability density function approach for the simulation of an ethanol spray flame Colin Heye a an experimental pilot-stabilized ethanol spray flame. In this particular flame, droplet evaporation occurs away: Large-eddy simulation; Probability density function; Flamelet/progress variable approach; Ethanol

Raman, Venkat

456

The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [“Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models,” J. Phys. A 31, 6057–6071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [“Macdonald processes,” Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [“Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process,” Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815–844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.

Korhonen, Marko [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 (Finland)] [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 (Finland); Lee, Eunghyun [Centre de Recherches Mathématiques (CRM), Université de Montréal, Quebec H3C 3J7 (Canada)] [Centre de Recherches Mathématiques (CRM), Université de Montréal, Quebec H3C 3J7 (Canada)

2014-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

457

Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects. Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current

Drijfhout, Sybren

458

Adaptive and context-aware scenarios for technology-enhanced learning system based on a didactical theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Adaptive and context-aware scenarios for technology- enhanced learning system based on a didactical-aware model of scenario based on a didactical theory and closely related to a domain model, a learner model and applications"; ii) the theory in didactic anthropology of knowledge of Chevallard [1]; iii) a hierarchical task

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

459

Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using a high-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using. A climate change IPCC-A2 scenario run with an atmosphere regional climate model is used to force Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001), the climate over

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

460

Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using a high-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using on Climate Change (IPCC 2001), the climate over the Mediterranean basin may become warmer and drier during 561079610 Climate Dynamics, submitted, July, 2004 #12;- 2 - 2 Abstract A scenario of the Mediterranean Sea

Ribes, Aurélien

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Applying Scenarios in the context of Specific User Design: Surgeon as an Expert User, and Design for Handicapped Children.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to guide the design team through an optimal instrument. The know-how and the knowledge of the user must, the article shows that the design process, that integrates specific user, can use the scenario based approachApplying Scenarios in the context of Specific User Design: Surgeon as an Expert User, and Design

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

462

Top pair production at a future $e^+e^-$ machine in a composite Higgs scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The top quark plays a central role in many New Physics scenarios and in understanding the details of Electro-Weak Symmetry Breaking. In the short- and mid-term future, top-quark studies will mainly be driven by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider. Exploration of top quarks will, however, be an integral part of particle physics studies at any future facility and an $e^+ e^-$ collider will have a very comprehensive top-quark physics program. We discuss the possibilities of testing NP in the top-quark sector within a composite Higgs scenario through deviations from the Standard Model in top pair production for different Centre-of-Mass energy options of a future $e^+e^-$ machine. In particular, we focus on precision studies of the top-quark sector at a CM energy ranging from 370 GeV up to 3 TeV.

Barducci, Daniele; Moretti, Stefano; Pruna, Giovanni Marco

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 1. Scenarios and Context  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As CO2 and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three biophysical models. In this paper we present the climate change scenarios used to drive the impact analyses. The assumed levels of global-mean climate changes are discussed and placed in the context of recent work on climate-change scenarios for the next 100 years. The spatial variation of these changes given by the GCM results used for the impact analyses are also discussed.

Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.; Wigley, T. M.

2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.

Van Vuuren, Detlef; Bouwman, Lex; Smith, Steven J.; Dentener, Frank

2011-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

465

Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1991-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

466

Exergy Analysis of the Steam Network in Tehran Oil Refinery and Evaluation with New Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Exergy Analysis of the Steam Network in Tehran Oil Refinery and evaluation with New Scenario Hassan Khodaei JA Ramin Taheri seresht Reza Arghandeh Energy system Lab Chairman of the Board of Directors... oil refinery, Exergy Analysis, Steam Network, Retrofit, Optimization 1. INTRODUCTION Refinery steam network is considered as a unit that consumes energy greatly. The main objective of the network is to produce the steam, which is required...

Khodaei, H.; Taheri, R.; Arghandeh, R.

467

The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

2013-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

468

Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.

Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Arnell, Nigel; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Kriegler, Elmar; Mathur, Ritu; O'Neill, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Zwickel, Timm

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Naturalness and stability of the generalized Chaplygin gas in the seesaw cosmon scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The seesaw mechanism is conceived on the basis that a mass scale, $\\xi$, and a dimensionless scale, $s$, can be fine-tuned in order to control the dynamics of active and sterile neutrinos through cosmon-type equations of motion: the seesaw cosmon equations. This allows for sterile neutrinos to be a dark matter candidate. In this scenario, the dynamical masses and energy densities of active and sterile neutrinos can be consistently embedded into the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG), the unified dark sector model. In addition, dark matter adiabatically coupled to dark energy allows for a natural decoupling of the (active) mass varying neutrino (MaVaN) component from the dark sector. Thus MaVaN's turn into a secondary effect. Through the scale parameters, $\\xi$ and $s$, the proposed scenario allows for a convergence among three distinct frameworks: the cosmon scenario, the seesaw mechanism for mass generation and the GCG model. It is found that the equation of state of the perturbations is the very one of the GCG background cosmology so that all the results from this approach are maintained, being smoothly modified by active neutrinos. Constrained by the seesaw relations, it is shown that the mass varying mechanism is responsible for the stability against linear perturbations and is indirectly related to the late time cosmological acceleration.

Alex E. Bernardini; O. Bertolami

2010-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

471

Cosmology in presence of dark energy in an emergent gravity scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We obtain the analogues of the Friedman equations in an emergent gravity scenario in the presence of dark energy. The background metric is taken to be Friedman-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW). We show that if $\\dot\\phi ^{2}$ is the dark energy density (in units of the critical density) then (a) for total energy density greater than the pressure (non-relativistic scenario, matter domination) the deceleration parameter $q(t)\\approx\\frac {1}{2} [1 + 27 \\dot\\phi ^{2}+...] > \\frac{1}{2}$ (b) for total energy density equal to 3 times the pressure (relativistic case, radiation domination), the deceleration parameter $q(t)\\approx 1 + 18\\dot\\phi ^{2} +... > 1$ and (c) for total energy density equal to the negative of the pressure (dark energy scenario), the deceleration parameter $q(t)dark energy right from the beginning of the universe where the time parameter $t\\equiv \\frac{t}{t_{0}}$, $t_{0}$ being the p...

Gangopadhyay, Debashis

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.

Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H

2010-10-08T23:59:59.000Z

473

Low and high energy phenomenology of quark-lepton complementarity scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We conduct a detailed analysis of the phenomenology of two predictive seesaw scenarios leading to quark-lepton complementarity. In both cases we discuss the neutrino mixing observables and their correlations, neutrinoless double beta decay and lepton flavor violating decays such as {mu}{yields}e{gamma}. We also comment on leptogenesis. The first scenario is disfavored on the level of one to two standard deviations, in particular, due to its prediction for |U{sub e3}|. There can be resonant leptogenesis with quasidegenerate heavy and light neutrinos, which would imply sizable cancellations in neutrinoless double beta decay. The decays {mu}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are typically observable unless the SUSY masses approach the TeV scale. In the second scenario leptogenesis is impossible. It is, however, in perfect agreement with all oscillation data. The prediction for {mu}{yields}e{gamma} is in general too large, unless the SUSY masses are in the range of several TeV. In this case {tau}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are unobservable.

Hochmuth, Kathrin A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich (Germany); Rodejohann, Werner [Physik-Department, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Strasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

2010-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

475

Cosmology in presence of dark energy in an emergent gravity scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We obtain the analogues of the Friedman equations in an emergent gravity scenario in the presence of dark energy. The background metric is taken to be Friedman-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW). We show that if $\\dot\\phi ^{2}$ is the dark energy density (in units of the critical density) then (a) for total energy density greater than the pressure (non-relativistic scenario, matter domination) the deceleration parameter $q(t)\\approx\\frac {1}{2} [1 + 27 \\dot\\phi ^{2}+...] > \\frac{1}{2}$ (b) for total energy density equal to 3 times the pressure (relativistic case, radiation domination), the deceleration parameter $q(t)\\approx 1 + 18\\dot\\phi ^{2} +... > 1$ and (c) for total energy density equal to the negative of the pressure (dark energy scenario), the deceleration parameter $q(t)energy right from the beginning of the universe where the time parameter $t\\equiv \\frac{t}{t_{0}}$, $t_{0}$ being the present epoch.

Debashis Gangopadhyay; Goutam Manna

2015-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

476

Choosing an electrical energy future for the Pacific Northwest: an Alternative Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An Alternative Scenario for the electric energy future of the Pacific Northwest is presented. The Scenario includes an analysis of each major end use of electricity in the residential, commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. This approach affords the most direct means of projecting the likely long-term growth in consumption and the opportunities for increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used in each instance. The total demand for electricity by these end uses then provides a basis for determining whether additional central station generation is required to 1995. A projection of total demand for electricity depends on the combination of many independent variables and assumptions. Thus, the approach is a resilient one; no single assumption or set of linked assumptions dominates the analysis. End-use analysis allows policymakers to visualize the benefits of alternative programs, and to make comparison with the findings of other studies. It differs from the traditional load forecasts for the Pacific Northwest, which until recently were based largely on straightforward extrapolations of historical trends in the growth of electrical demand. The Scenario addresses the supply potential of alternative energy sources. Data are compiled for 1975, 1985, and 1995 in each end-use sector.

Cavanagh, R.C.; Mott, L.; Beers, J.R.; Lash, T.L.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Saltstone Disposal Facility Closure Cap Configuration and Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control to Pine Forest Scenario  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Performance Assessment (PA) for the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) is currently under revision. As part of the PA revision and as documented herein, the closure cap configuration has been reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap have been evaluated for the institutional control to pine forest, land use scenario. This land use scenario is considered the base case land use scenario. This scenario assumes a 100-year institutional control period following final SDF closure during which the closure cap is maintained. At the end of institutional control, it is assumed that a pine forest succeeds the cap's original bamboo cover. Infiltration through the upper hydraulic barrier layer of the closure cap as determined by this evaluation will be utilized as the infiltration input to subsequent PORFLOW vadose zone contaminant transport modeling, which will also be performed as part of the PA revision. The impacts of pine forest succession, erosion, and colloidal clay migration as degradation mechanisms on the hydraulic properties of the closure cap layers over time have been estimated and the resulting infiltration through the closure cap has been evaluated. The primary changes caused by the degradation mechanisms that result in increased infiltration are the formation of holes in the upper GCL by pine forest succession and the reduction in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the drainage layers due to colloidal clay migration into the layers. Erosion can also result in significant increases in infiltration if it causes the removal of soil layers, which provide water storage for the promotion of evapotranspiration. For this scenario, infiltration through the upper GCL was estimated at approximately 0.29 inches/year under initial intact conditions, it increased to approximately 11.6 inches/year at year 1000 in nearly a linear fashion, and it approached an asymptote of around 14.1 inches/year at year 1800 and thereafter. At year 1800, it was estimated that holes covered approximately 0.3 percent of the GCL due to root penetration, and that this resulted in an infiltration near that of typical background infiltration (i.e. as though the GCL were not there at all). This demonstrated that a very small area of holes essentially controlled the hydraulic performance of the GCL.

Phifer, M.A.

2004-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

478

Probability of initiation and extinction in the Mercury Monte Carlo code  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A Monte Carlo method for computing the probability of initiation has previously been implemented in Mercury. Recently, a new method based on the probability of extinction has been implemented as well. The methods have similarities from counting progeny to cycling in time, but they also have differences such as population control and statistical uncertainty reporting. The two methods agree very well for several test problems. Since each method has advantages and disadvantages, we currently recommend that both methods are used to compute the probability of criticality. (authors)

McKinley, M. S.; Brantley, P. S. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, CA 94551 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Error Analysis of Free Probability Approximations to the Density of States of Disordered Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Theoretical studies of localization, anomalous diffusion and ergodicity breaking require solving the electronic structure of disordered systems. We use free probability to approximate the ensemble-averaged density of states ...

Chen, Jiahao

480

Reconstruction of ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in N dimensions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present an analytical inversion technique, which can be used to recover ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in an N-dimensional detection scheme. The solution is given as a power series in intensity. For this reason, we call...

Stroahaber, James; Kolomenskii, A; Schuessler, Hans

2010-07-06T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "outage scenario probabilities" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Knowledge and understanding of probability and statistics topics by preservice PK-8 teachers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Given the importance placed on probability and statistics in the PK-8 curriculum by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (2000) and on teachers by the Interstate New Teacher Assessment and Support Consortium (1995) and the Conference...

Carter, Tamara Anthony

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

Guilin, L. [College of Engineering, Ocean Univ. ot China, Yushan Road No. 5, Qingdao 266003 (China); Defu, L. [Disaster Prevention Research Inst., Ocean Univ. ot China, Yushan Road No. 5, Qingdao 266003 (China); Huajun, L. [College of Engineering, Ocean Univ. ot China, Yushan Road No. 5, Qingdao 266003 (China); Fengqing, W. [Disaster Prevention Research Inst., Ocean Univ. of China, Songling Road No.238, Qingdao 266100 (China); Tao, Z. [College of Engineering, Ocean Univ. of China, Songling Road No.238, Qingdao 266100 (China)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

An Algorithm for Calculating the Probability of Classes of Data Patterns on a Genealogy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Felsenstein’s pruning algorithm allows one to calculate the probability of any particular data pattern arising on a phylogeny given a model of character evolution. Here we present a similar dynamic programming algorithm. ...

Koch, Jordan M.; Holder, Mark T.

2012-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

484

On the evaluation of human error probabilities for post-initiating events  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantification of human error probabilities (HEPs) for the purpose of human reliability assessment (HRA) is very complex. Because of this complexity, the state of the art includes a variety of HRA models, each with its own ...

Presley, Mary R

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

On the probability of undetected error for overextended Reed-Solomon codes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

shortened binary CRC codes,” in Proc. MILCOM 88, Oct. 1988,MacWilliams identity for linear codes,” IEEE Trans. Inform.probability of linear codes,” IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory,

Han, Junsheng S; Siegel, Paul H; Lee, Patrick

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Math 341 Probability and Statistical Inference Winter 2010 Instructor Dr. Amites Sarkar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Math 341 Probability and Statistical Inference Winter 2010 Instructor Dr. Amites Sarkar Text, Thursdays and Fridays, in 216 Bond Hall. My phone number is 650 7569 and my e-mail is amites.sarkar

Sarkar, Amites

487

Math 341 Probability and Statistical Inference Summer 2009 Instructor Dr. Amites Sarkar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Math 341 Probability and Statistical Inference Summer 2009 Instructor Dr. Amites Sarkar Text, Wednesdays and Thursdays, in 216 Bond Hall. My phone number is 650 7569 and my e-mail is amites.sarkar

Sarkar, Amites

488

E-Print Network 3.0 - annihilation probability density Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of a positron emitted from the origin annihilating at point... (mm) probability F18 N13 Cu61 Cu64 Fig. 1. Left ... Source: Leahy, Richard M. - Departments of Radiology &...

489

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Use of soil moisture depletion models and rainfall probability in predicting the irrigation requirements of crops  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of precipitation events in estimating the probable success of his venture as related to the avail nb! lity of sufficient water resources precipitation is governed by chance phenomena, that is, there are so many causes at work that the influence of each cannot... depletion equations under optimum soil moisture conditions Recession constants Application of soil mcisture accounring model Irrigation requirements Retention relations Irrigation requirements distributions Raini'all probabilities Neekly rainfall...

David, Wilfredo P

1969-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Semi-empirical Probability Distributions and Their Application in Wave-Structure Interaction Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December 2010 Major Subject: Ocean Engineering SEMI-EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN WAVE-STRUCTURE INTERACTION PROBLEMS A... to accurately estimate the probability distribution of complex non-linear random variables in the field of wave- structure interaction. The structural form of the semi-empirical distribution is developed based on a mathematical representation of the process...

Izadparast, Amir Hossein

2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

492

Probability Models for Continuous Random Variables 1 Longevity of Women (years)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

box counts for 0.008, the probability is 37.5 0.008 = 0.3000. The area is 0.3000 ­ this seems for such curves are They must be nonnegative. The total area under the curve must be exactly 1. The probability of a result in some interval (along the horizontal ­ x ­ axis) is equal to the area under the curve over

Preston, Scott

493

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

Toole, Gasper L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Mechanical fluctuations suppress the threshold of soft-glassy solids : the secular drift scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose a dynamical mechanism leading to the fluidization of soft-glassy amorphous mate-rial driven below the yield-stress by external mechanical fluctuations. The model is based on the combination of memory effect and non-linearity, leading to an accumulation of tiny effects over a long-term. We test this scenario on a granular packing driven mechanically below the Coulomb threshold. We bring evidences for an effective viscous response directly related to small stress modulations in agreement with the theoretical prediction of a generic secular drift.

Adeline Pons; Axelle Amon; Thierry Darnige; Jérôme Crassous; Eric Clément

2014-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

498

Dual Superconductor Scenario of Confinement: A Systematic Study of Gribov Copy Effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a study of the effects from maximal abelian gauge Gribov copies in the context of the dual superconductor scenario of confinement, on the basis of a novel approach for estimation of systematic uncertainties from incomplete gauge fixing. We present numerical results, in SU(2) lattice gauge theory, using the overrelaxed simulated annealing gauge fixing algorithm. We find abelian and non-abelian string tensions to differ significantly, their ratio being 0.92(4) at BETA = 2.5115. An approximate factorization of the abelian potential into monopole and photon contributions has been confirmed, the former giving rise to the abelian string tension.

G. S. Bali; V. Bornyakov; M. Mueller Preussker; K. Schilling

1996-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

499

MELCOR analyses of severe accident scenarios in Oconee, a B W PWR plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents the results and insights gained from MELCOR analyses of two severe accident scenarios, a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) and a Station Blackout (TMLB) in Oconee, a Babcock Wilcox (B W) designed PWR with a large dry containment, and comparisons with Source Term Code Package (STCP) calculations of the same sequences. Results include predicted timing of key events, thermal-hydraulic response in the reactor coolant system and containment, and environmental releases of fission products. The paper also explores the impact of varying concrete type, vessel failure temperature, and break location on the accident progression, containment pressurization, and environmental releases of radionuclides.

Madni, I.K.; Nimnual, S. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Foulds, R. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States))

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

MELCOR analyses of severe accident scenarios in Oconee, a B&W PWR plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents the results and insights gained from MELCOR analyses of two severe accident scenarios, a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) and a Station Blackout (TMLB) in Oconee, a Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) designed PWR with a large dry containment, and comparisons with Source Term Code Package (STCP) calculations of the same sequences. Results include predicted timing of key events, thermal-hydraulic response in the reactor coolant system and containment, and environmental releases of fission products. The paper also explores the impact of varying concrete type, vessel failure temperature, and break location on the accident progression, containment pressurization, and environmental releases of radionuclides.

Madni, I.K.; Nimnual, S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Foulds, R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z