Sample records for outage scenario probabilities

  1. Outage probability at finite SNR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akçaba, Cemal

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, we present a technique to reduce the outage probability of a single user multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel when a sub-optimal transceiver architecture is used. We show that in slow-fading ...

  2. Proof of the outage probability conjecture for MISO channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abbe, Emmanuel; Telatar, Emre

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In Telatar 1999, it is conjectured that the covariance matrices minimizing the outage probability for MIMO channels with Gaussian fading are diagonal with either zeros or constant values on the diagonal. In the MISO setting, this is equivalent to conjecture that the Gaussian quadratic forms having largest tale probability correspond to such diagonal matrices. We prove here the conjecture in the MISO setting.

  3. Outage Probability Analysis of Distributed Reception with Hard Decision Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown III, Donald R.

    Outage Probability Analysis of Distributed Reception with Hard Decision Exchanges Rui Wang, D. Richard Brown III, Min Ni Dept. of Electrical and Computer Eng. Worcester Polytechnic Institute 100 Institute Rd, Worcester, MA 01609 Email: {rwang,drb,minni@wpi.edu} Upamanyu Madhow Dept. of Electrical

  4. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 62, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2014 699 Outage Probability in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Xiangyun "Sean"

    transform of a cumulative distribution and (ii) a reference link power gain-based framework which exploits the distribution of the fading power gain between the reference transmitter and receiver. The outage probability the outage probability at any location inside either a disk or polygon region. The analysis illustrates

  5. Outage Probability of MISO Broadcast Systems with Noisy Channel Side Information

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lim, Teng Joon

    Outage Probability of MISO Broadcast Systems with Noisy Channel Side Information Alon Shalev output (MISO) systems. However, these schemes generally require perfect channel information) of a linear zero forcing transmitter, operating in a fading MISO broadcast channel. We consider a rectangular

  6. Cut-off Rate based Outage Probability Analysis of Frequency Hopping Mobile Radio under Jamming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yýlmaz, Özgür

    Cut-off Rate based Outage Probability Analysis of Frequency Hopping Mobile Radio under Jamming Conditions G¨okhan M. G¨uvensen Electrical and Electronics Eng. Dept. Middle East Technical University Ankara, Turkey Email: guvensen@metu.edu.tr Yalc¸in Tanik Electrical and Electronics Eng. Dept. Middle East

  7. The Information-Outage Probability of Finite-Length Codes over AWGN Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valenti, Matthew C.

    The Information-Outage Probability of Finite-Length Codes over AWGN Channels David Buckingham and Matthew C. Valenti Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering West Virginia University March 19, 2008 Buckingham and Valenti ( Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering

  8. The Approximation of Outage Probability and the Trade-off between Capacity and Diversity for the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scharf, Louis

    The Approximation of Outage Probability and the Trade-off between Capacity and Diversity for the Frequency-Selective Channel Zhifei Fan Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: fanz@engr.colostate.edu Louis Scharf Department of Electrical

  9. Optimal Power Control in CDMA Networks with Constraints on Outage Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    power control al- gorithm is developed for large systems of users. Simulation results are presented of this previous work deals with invariant channel models. Any power control scheme that attempts to follow fastOptimal Power Control in CDMA Networks with Constraints on Outage Probability John Papandriopoulos

  10. Outage Rate Regions for the MISO Interference Channel: Definitions and Interpretations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lindblom, Johannes; Larsson, Erik G

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the slow-fading two-user multiple-input single-output (MISO) interference channel (IC), where the receivers treat the interference as additive Gaussian noise. We study the rate points that can be achieved, allowing a non-zero outage probability. The points which meet the outage probability specification constitute a so-called outage rate region. There exist several definitions of the outage rate regions for the IC, as for the broadcast and the multiple-access channels. We give four definitions for the outage region of the MISO IC. The definitions differ on whether the rates are declared in outage jointly or individually and whether there is instantaneous or statistical channel state information (CSI) at the transmitters. For the statistical CSI scenario, we discuss how to find the outage probabilities in closed form. We provide interpretations of the definitions and compare the corresponding regions via analytical and numerical results.

  11. Outage Log

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeeding access toTest andOptimize carbonOther FileDustyOur HistoryOurOutage

  12. Pictures, scenarios or probabilities: how should we portray dangerous climate change?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hulme, Mike

    1 Pictures, scenarios or probabilities: how should we portray dangerous climate change? Professor of East Anglia Prepared for the conference on "Perspectives on dangerous climate change", 28-29 June 2004 University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Version 16 June 2004 Abstract "Dangerous climate change" has entered

  13. Outage Constrained Robust Transmit Optimization for Multiuser MISO Downlinks: Tractable Approximations by Conic Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Kun-Yu; Chang, Tsung-Hui; Ma, Wing-Kin; Chi, Chong-Yung

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we consider a probabilistic signal-to-interference and-noise ratio (SINR) constrained problem for transmit beamforming design in the presence of imperfect channel state information (CSI), under a multiuser multiple-input single-output (MISO) downlink scenario. In particular, we deal with outage-based quality-of-service constraints, where the probability of each user's SINR not satisfying a service requirement must not fall below a given outage probability specification. The study of solution approaches to the probabilistic SINR constrained problem is important because CSI errors are often present in practical systems and they may cause substantial SINR outages if not handled properly. However, a major technical challenge is how to process the probabilistic SINR constraints. To tackle this, we propose a novel relaxation- restriction (RAR) approach, which consists of two key ingredients-semidefinite relaxation (SDR), and analytic tools for conservatively approximating probabilistic constraints. Th...

  14. Outage behavior with delay and CSIT Dinesh Rajan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rajan, Dinesh

    Outage behavior with delay and CSIT Dinesh Rajan Department of electrical engineering Southern of electrical and computer engineering Rice University, Houston, Texas. ashu@rice.edu, aaz@rice.edu Abstract-- In this paper, we demonstrate that the packet outage probability for fading channels can be significantly

  15. Primary Outage-Based Resource Allocation Strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gesbert, David

    , the scheme would have governed transmitter power on a variable basis calculated to limit the energy at victim, 2003). Rather than merely regulate transmitter power at fixed levels, as it has been done in the past in this work by proposing three resource management strategies based on outage probability. The motivation

  16. On Possible Influence of Space Weather on Agricultural Markets: Necessary Conditions and Probable Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pustilnik, Lev

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...

  17. Overview of Common Mode Outages in Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Awodele , Kehinde; Billinton, Roy; Dent, Chris; Eager, Dan; Hamoud, Gomaa; Jirutitijaroen, Panida; Kumbale, Murali; Mitra, Joydeep; Samaan, Nader A.; Schneider, Alex; Singh, Chanan

    2012-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Probability Applications for Common Mode Events (PACME) Task Force under the Reliability Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA) Subcommittee. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about dealing with common-mode outages in power systems reliability analysis. This effort involves reviewing published literature and presenting state-of-the-art research and practical applications in the area of common-mode outages. Evaluation of available outage statistics show that there is a definite need for collective effort from academia and industry to not only recommended procedures for data collection and monitoring but also to provide appropriate mathematical models to assess such events.

  18. Predictive Compensation for Communication Outages in Networked Control Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Predictive Compensation for Communication Outages in Networked Control Systems Erik Henriksson Henrik Sandberg Karl Henrik Johansson Abstract-- A predictive outage compensator co time instance, the predictive outage compensator suggests a replacement command based on the history

  19. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hase, Kevin R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boyer, Brian D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

  20. Controlled Tripping of Overheated Lines Mitigates Power Outages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pfitzner, René; Chertkov, Michael

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study cascades of blackouts in the model of the Polish (transmission) power grid (2700 nodes and 3504 transmission lines). A cascade is initiated by a sufficiently severe initial contingency tripping. The cascade advances via sequential tripping of many more overheated lines (with the thermal limits exceeded), islanding loads and generators and eventually arriving at a fixed point with the surviving part of the system being power- flow-balanced and the rest of the system being outaged. Utilizing the quasi-static model for cascade propagation, introduced in our earlier study (Statistical Classification of Cascading Failures in Power Grids, IEEE PES GM 2011), we analyze how the severity of the cascade depends on the order of tripping overheated lines. Our main observation is that the order of tripping has a tremendous effect on the size of the resulting outage: the probability distribution function of the outage size is broad; moreover in many of the cases studied, picking an overheated line at random result...

  1. GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF AN ADVANCED OUTAGE CONTROL CENTER TO IMPROVE OUTAGE COORDINATION, PROBLEM RESOLUTION, AND OUTAGE RISK MANAGEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Germain, Shawn St; Farris, Ronald; Whaley, April M; Medema, Heather; Gertman, David

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. Managing NPP outages is a complex and difficult task due to the large number of maintenance and repair activities that are accomplished in a short period of time. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information, and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status, and periodic briefings in the OCC. It is a difficult task to maintain current the information related to outage progress and discovered conditions. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across, and out of the OCC. The use of these technologies will allow information to be shared electronically, providing greater amounts of real-time information to the decision makers and allowing OCC coordinators to meet with supporting staff remotely. Passively monitoring status electronically through advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer-based procedures, and automated work packages will reduce the current reliance on manually reporting progress. The use of these technologies will also improve the knowledge capture and management capabilities of the organization. The purpose of this research is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an advanced outage control center (AOCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This technical report for industry implementation outlines methods and considerations for the establishment of an AOCC. This report provides a process for implementation of a change management plan, evaluation of current outage processes, the selection of technology, and guidance for the implementation of the selected technology. Methods are presented for both adoption of technologies within an existing OCC and for a complete OCC replacement, including human factors considerations for OCC design and setup.

  2. Reduced-Order Predictive Outage Compensators for Networked Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Reduced-Order Predictive Outage Compensators for Networked Systems Erik Henriksson Henrik Sandberg communication outage of several samples in situations when the radio environment is noisy and low transmission power is desirable. We propose a method to compensate for outages by introducing a predictive outage

  3. Fluid Model of the Outage Probability in Sectored Wireless Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    Research & Development Issy-Les-Moulineaux, France jeanmarc.kelif@orange-ftgroup.com Marceau Coupechoux

  4. Spatial Outage Probability Formula for CDMA Jean-Marc Kelif

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    -Les-Moulineaux, France jeanmarc.kelif@orange-ftgroup.com Marceau Coupechoux ENST & CNRS LTCI UMR 5141 46, rue Barrault

  5. Spatial Outage Probability for Cellular Networks Jean-Marc Kelif

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    -Les-Moulineaux, France jeanmarc.kelif@orange-ftgroup.com Marceau Coupechoux ENST & CNRS LTCI UMR 5141 46, rue Barrault

  6. Coordinated Beamforming for Multiuser MISO Interference Channel under Rate Outage Constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Wei-Chiang; Lin, Che; Chi, Chong-Yung

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper studies the coordinated beamforming design problem for the multiple-input single-output (MISO) interference channel, assuming only channel distribution information (CDI) at the transmitters. For a given requirement on the rate outage probability for receivers, we aim to maximize the system utility (e.g., the weighted sum rate, weighted proportional fairness rate, and the weighed harmonic mean rate) subject to the rate outage constraints and individual power constraints. The outage constraints, however, lead to a complicated, nonconvex structure for the considered beamforming design problem and make the optimization problem difficult to handle. While this nonconvex optimization problem can be solved in an exhaustive search manner, this brute-force approach is only feasible when the number of transmitter-receiver pairs is small. For a system with a large number of transmitter-receiver pairs, computationally efficient alternatives are necessary. The focus of this paper is hence on the design of such e...

  7. Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.

  8. Outage management and health physics issue, 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2007-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troy Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.

  9. Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 May 10, 2012 (0 Comments) Due to a scheduled maintenance for the License...

  10. Outage managment and health physics issue, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2008-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include: Outage optimization initiatives, by George B. Beam, AREVA NP, Inc.; New plant based on excellent track records, by Jim Scarola, Progress Energy; Meeting customer needs and providing environmental benefits, by Peter S. Hastings, Duke Energy; Plants with 3-D design, by Jack A. Bailey, Tennessee Valley Authority; and Highest quality with exceptional planning, by Jason A. Walls, Duke Energy. Industry innovation articles include: Integrated exposure reduction plan, by Ed Wolfe, Exelon; Performance-based radiation worker training, by Joe Giuffre and Timothy Vriezerma, American Electric Power.

  11. A Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    A Preliminary Analysis of Network Outages During Hurricane Sandy USC/ISI Technical Report ISI outages during the October 2012 Hurricane Sandy. We assess net- work reliability by pinging a sample network outages, we see that the out- age rate in U.S. networks doubled when the hurricane made landfall

  12. Outage management and health physics issue, 2006

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2006-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: A design with experience for the U.S., by Michael J. Wallace, Constellation Generation Group; Hope to be among the first, by Randy Hutchinson, Entergy Nuclear; Plans to file COLs in 2008, by Garry Miller, Progress Energy; Evolution of ICRP's recommendations, by Lars-Erik Holm, ICRP; European network on education and training in radiological protection, by Michele Coeck, SCK-CEN, Belgium; Outage managment: an important tool for improving nuclear power plant performance, by Thomas Mazour and Jiri Mandula, IAEA, Austria; and Plant profile: Exploring new paths to excellence, by Anne Thomas, Exelon Nuclear.

  13. Advanced Outage and Control Center: Strategies for Nuclear Plant Outage Work Status Capabilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gregory Weatherby

    2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The research effort is a part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a research and development program sponsored by the Department of Energy, performed in close collaboration with industry to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS Program serves to help the US nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The Outage Control Center (OCC) Pilot Project was directed at carrying out the applied research for development and pilot of technology designed to enhance safe outage and maintenance operations, improve human performance and reliability, increase overall operational efficiency, and improve plant status control. Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Unfortunately, many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. They depend heavily upon large teams of staff, multiple work and coordination locations, and manual administrative actions that require large amounts of paper. Previous work in human reliability analysis suggests that many repetitive tasks, including paper work tasks, may have a failure rate of 1.0E-3 or higher (Gertman, 1996). With between 10,000 and 45,000 subtasks being performed during an outage (Gomes, 1996), the opportunity for human error of some consequence is a realistic concern. Although a number of factors exist that can make these errors recoverable, reducing and effectively coordinating the sheer number of tasks to be performed, particularly those that are error prone, has the potential to enhance outage efficiency and safety. Additionally, outage management requires precise coordination of work groups that do not always share similar objectives. Outage managers are concerned with schedule and cost, union workers are concerned with performing work that is commensurate with their trade, and support functions (safety, quality assurance, and radiological controls, etc.) are concerned with performing the work within the plants controls and procedures. Approaches to outage management should be designed to increase the active participation of work groups and managers in making decisions that closed the gap between competing objectives and the potential for error and process inefficiency.

  14. How individual traces and interactive timelines could support outage execution - Toward an outage historian concept

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parfouru, S.; De-Beler, N. [EDF Recherche and Developpement, 6 quai Watier, 78400 Chatou (France)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the context of a project that is designing innovative ICT-based solutions for the organizational concept of outage management, we focus on the informational process of the OCR (Outage Control Room) underlying the execution of the outages. Informational process are based on structured and unstructured documents that have a key role in the collaborative processes and management of the outage. We especially track the structured and unstructured documents, electronically or not, from creation to sharing. Our analysis allows us to consider that the individual traces produced by an individual participant with a specific role could be multi-purpose and support sharing between participants without creating duplication of work. The ultimate goal is to be able to generate an outage historian, that is not just focused on highly structured information, which could be useful to improve the continuity of information between participants. We study the implementation of this approach through web technologies and social media tools to address this issue. We also investigate the issue of data access through interactive visualization timelines coupled with other modality's to assist users in the navigation and exploration of the proposed historian. (authors)

  15. Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    Power Outage 1. Remain Calm; provide assistance to others if necessary. 2. Report the outage, call. Campus-wide telephone communications will continue to operate during a power outage on standard phones. If emergency assistance is required, call UC Security on Extn 6111 and state "POWEr OUTAgE" or mobile 0800 823

  16. Plant maintenance and outage management issue, 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2005-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of the January-February issue is on plant maintenance and outage managment. Major articles/reports in this issue include: Dawn of a new era, by Joe Colvin, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI); Plant profile: Beloyarsk NPP, Russia, by Nikolai Oshkanov, Beloyarsk NPP, Russia; Improving economic performance, by R. Spiegelberg-Planner, John De Mella, and Marius Condu, IAEA; A model for improving performance, by Pet Karns, MRO Software; ASME codes and standards, by Shannon Burke, ASME International; and, Refurbishment programs, by Craig S. Irish, Nuclear Logistics, Inc.

  17. Electricity Case: Statistical Analysis of Electric Power Outages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Hai

    Electricity Case: Statistical Analysis of Electric Power Outages CREATE Report Jeffrey S. Simonoff: Statistical Analysis of Electric Power Outages CREATE Report July 26, 2005 Jeffrey S. Simonoff (NYU of the United States Department of Homeland Security. #12;0 Electricity Case, Report 3 Electricity Case

  18. Does Beamforming achieve Outage Capacity with Direction Feedback?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jafar, Syed A.

    Does Beamforming achieve Outage Capacity with Direction Feedback? Sudhir Srinivasa and Syed Ali Jafar Sriram Vishwanath Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Electrical and Computer Engineering: syed@ece.uci.edu, sudhirs@uci.edu Email: sriram@ece.utexas.edu Abstract We explore the outage capacity

  19. Technology Integration Initiative In Support of Outage Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gregory Weatherby; David Gertman

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Often, command and control during outages is maintained in the outage control center where many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. This research reports on the use of advanced integrating software technologies and hand held mobile devices as a means by which to reduce cycle time, improve accuracy, and enhance transparency among outage team members. This paper reports on the first phase of research supported by the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program that is performed in close collaboration with industry to examine the introduction of newly available technology allowing for safe and efficient outage performance. It is thought that this research will result in: improved resource management among various plant stakeholder groups, reduced paper work, and enhanced overall situation awareness for the outage control center management team. A description of field data collection methods, including personnel interview data, success factors, end-user evaluation and integration of hand held devices in achieving an integrated design are also evaluated. Finally, the necessity of obtaining operations cooperation support in field studies and technology evaluation is acknowledged.

  20. Development of Methodologies for Technology Deployment for Advanced Outage Control Centers that Improve Outage Coordination, Problem Resolution and Outage Risk Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shawn St. Germain; Ronald Farris; Heather Medeman

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provides the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The long term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the U.S. will depend upon maintaining high capacity factors, avoiding nuclear safety issues and reducing operating costs. The slow progress in the construction on new nuclear power plants has placed in increased importance on maintaining the output of the current fleet of nuclear power plants. Recently expanded natural gas production has placed increased economic pressure on nuclear power plants due to lower cost competition. Until recently, power uprate projects had steadily increased the total output of the U.S. nuclear fleet. Errors made during power plant upgrade projects have now removed three nuclear power plants from the U.S. fleet and economic considerations have caused the permanent shutdown of a fourth plant. Additionally, several utilities have cancelled power uprate projects citing economic concerns. For the past several years net electrical generation from U.S. nuclear power plants has been declining. One of few remaining areas where significant improvements in plant capacity factors can be made is in minimizing the duration of refueling outages. Managing nuclear power plant outages is a complex and difficult task. Due to the large number of complex tasks and the uncertainty that accompanies them, outage durations routinely exceed the planned duration. The ability to complete an outage on or near schedule depends upon the performance of the outage management organization. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status and periodic briefings in the OCC. Much of the information displayed in OCCs is static and out of date requiring an evaluation to determine if it is still valid. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across and out of the OCC. Additionally, advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer based procedures and electronic work packages can be leveraged to improve the availability of real time status to outage managers.

  1. SAMPLE RESULTS FROM MCU SOLIDS OUTAGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Oji, L.; Coleman, C.; Poirier, M.

    2014-09-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has received several solid and liquid samples from MCU in an effort to understand and recover from the system outage starting on April 6, 2014. SRNL concludes that the presence of solids in the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) is the likely root cause for the outage, based upon the following discoveries ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the scrub contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) proved to be mostly sodium oxalate ? An archived sample from Tank 49H taken last year was shown to contain a fine precipitate of sodium oxalate ? A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 drain pipe from extraction contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium aluminosilicate ? A liquid sample from the SSFT was shown to have elevated levels of oxalate anion compared to the expected concentration in the feed Visual inspection of the SSFT indicated the presence of precipitated or transferred solids, which were likely also in the Salt Solution Receipt Tank (SSRT). The presence of the solids coupled with agitation performed to maintain feed temperature resulted in oxalate solids migration through the MCU system and caused hydraulic issues that resulted in unplanned phase carryover from the extraction into the scrub, and ultimately the strip contactors. Not only did this carryover result in the Strip Effluent (SE) being pushed out of waste acceptance specification, but it resulted in the deposition of solids into several of the contactors. At the same time, extensive deposits of aluminosilicates were found in the drain tube in the extraction contactor #1. However it is not known at this time how the aluminosilicate solids are related to the oxalate solids. The solids were successfully cleaned out of the MCU system. However, future consideration must be given to the exclusion of oxalate solids into the MCU system. There were 53 recommendations for improving operations recently identified. Some additional considerations or additional details are provided below as recommendations. ? From this point on, IC-Anions analyses of the DSSHT should be part of the monthly routine analysis in order to spot negative trends in the oxalate leaving the MCU system. Care must be taken to monitor the oxalate content to watch for sudden precipitation of oxalate salts in the system. ? Conduct a study to optimize the cleaning strategy at ARP-MCU through decreasing the concentration or entirely eliminating the oxalic acid. ? The contents of the SSFT should remain unagitated. Routine visual observation should be maintained to ensure there is not a large buildup of solids. As water with agitation provided sufficient removal of the solids in the feed tank, it should be considered as a good means for dissolving oxalate solids if they are found in the future. ? Conduct a study to improve prediction of oxalate solubility in salt batch feed materials. As titanium and mercury have been found in various solids in this report, evaluate if either element plays a role in oxalate solubility during processing. ? Salt batch characterization focuses primarily on characterization and testing of unaltered Tank 21H material; however, non-typical feeds are developed through cleaning, washing, and/or sump transfers. As these solutions are processed through MCU, they may precipitate solids or reduce performance. Salt batch characterization and testing should be expanded to encompass a broader range of feeds that may be processed through ARPMCU.

  2. Lassoing Line Outages in the Smart Power Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Hao

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Fast and accurate unveiling of power line outages is of paramount importance not only for preventing faults that may lead to blackouts, but also for routine monitoring and control tasks of the smart grid, including state estimation and optimal power flow. Existing approaches are either challenged by the \\emph{combinatorial complexity} issues involved, and are thus limited to identifying single- and double-line outages; or, they invoke less pragmatic assumptions such as \\emph{conditionally independent} phasor angle measurements available across the grid. Using only a subset of voltage phasor angle data, the present paper develops a near real-time algorithm for identifying multiple line outages at the affordable complexity of solving a quadratic program via block coordinate descent iterations. The novel approach relies on reformulating the DC linear power flow model as a \\emph{sparse} overcomplete expansion, and leveraging contemporary advances in compressive sampling and variable selection using the least-abso...

  3. The detection, prevention and mitigation of cascading outages in the power system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Hongbiao

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and develops new methods and new tools to help detect, prevent and mitigate the outages. Three effective solutions: a steady state control scheme, a transient...

  4. IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, JANUARY 2013 127 Capacity of Zero-Outage Scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Candan, Cagatay

    IEEE COMMUNICATIONS LETTERS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, JANUARY 2013 127 Capacity of Zero-Outage Scheme Under Imprecise Channel State Information C¸ a~gatay Candan Abstract--The capacity of zero-outage scheme-to-noise-ratio fluctuates and the scheme suffers from com- munication outages. Exact analytical expressions characterizing

  5. PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /speech/2006/ramsay/etp_tokyo.pdf #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE G8 provides part of IEA's "advice on scenarios and strategies" at G8 Summit in St. Petersburg ETP 2006

  6. Preventing power outages Power system contingency analysis on the GPU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vuik, Kees

    problem. Moreover, the power system has to keep functioning properly even when a transmission line failsPreventing power outages Power system contingency analysis on the GPU To provide electricity generators, nuclear power plants, wind turbines, etc.) and a network of lines and cables to transmit

  7. Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Responding to Power Outages and Floods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lesikar, Bruce J.; Mechell, Justin; Alexander, Rachel

    2008-10-23T23:59:59.000Z

    People and the environment can be harmed if a home's onsite wastewater treatment system does not work properly after a flood or power outage. This publication explains the steps to take after such an event to get the system back into service. 4 pp...

  8. Collaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deussen, Oliver

    , particularly for the nuclear and petroleum domains where the overall complexity, safety concerns and challengesCollaboration Surfaces for Outage Control Centers Lars Hurlen Institute for Energy Technology Os Allé 7 1777 Halden, Norway +47 69212242 lars.hurlen@hrp.no Bojana Petkov Institute for Energy

  9. Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Kumbale, Murali; Chen, Yousu; Singh, Ruchi; Green, Irina; Morgan, Mark P.

    2011-10-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remains mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.

  10. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  11. Self-Organization of a Mesh Hierarchy for Smart Grid Monitoring in Outage Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tague, Patrick

    communication infrastructure in the smart grid is not robust for data collection from smart meters during/generating elements in the smart environment to a gateway. We envision this gateway to be a smart meter. The collection of smart-meters and collectors form the smart grid Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) [1

  12. Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

  13. Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering Outage Probability of a Multi-User

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valenti, Matthew C.

    Reynolds, and Matthew C. Valenti Lane Dept. of Comp. Sci and Elec. Eng. West Virginia University Morgantown Virginia University Page 1 #12;Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering · Conclusions March 14, 2007 West Virginia University Page 2 #12;Lane Department of Computer Science

  14. Analysis and Computation of the Outage Probability of Discrete-Input Block-Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

    of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK guillen@ieee.org Lars K. Rasmussen Institute for Telecommunications Research University of South Australia SA 5095, Australia lars.rasmussen@unisa.edu.au Abstract-- THIS PAPER

  15. Impact of Topology and Shadowing on the Outage Probability of Cellular Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Orange Labs Issy-Les-Moulineaux, France jeanmarc.kelif@orange-ftgroup.com Marceau Coupechoux TELECOM ParisTech & CNRS LTCI 46, rue Barrault, Paris, France marceau.coupechoux@telecom-paristech.fr Abstract

  16. Outage Probability in a Multi-Cellular Network using Alamouti Scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupechoux, Marceau

    -Marc Kelif , Marceau Coupechoux and Philippe Godlewski Orange Labs Issy-les-moulineaux, France Email

  17. Draft!07"18"2011! 1 Turning the Tide on Outages1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amin, S. Massoud

    !programs!of!replacement,!rehabilitation!and!new!investment!in!the! U.S.!infrastructure.! ! Focusing!on!the!electric!power!sector,!the!power!outages!whether!the!carrying!capacity!or!safety!margin!will!exist! to!support!anticipated!demand!is!in!question.! ! To!assess!impacts!using!actual!electric!power!outage! Draft!07"18"2011! 1 Turning the Tide on Outages1 What are the true costs of implementing

  18. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Connecticut and New Jersey, and the Canadian province of Ontario. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force...

  19. Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreaking of Blythe Solar PowerCommercialEnergy Star HomePower Outages Homeowners:

  20. Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dobson, Ian

    Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems that progressively weakens the system. Large electric power transmission systems occasionally have cascading failures of transmission lines. The multiple mechanisms involved these cascading outages are many and varied, and the power

  1. An Efficient Energy Curtailment Scheme For Outage Management in Smart Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durrani, Salman

    as to minimize the total cost incurred to the system due to the power outage (i.e., social optimality). The game that a smart grid will transform the current power grid into one that functions more intelligently, giving J challenges for reliable smart grid operation is the post-outage management of power among the users

  2. POWER SYSTEM LINE OUTAGE DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION --A QUICKEST CHANGE DETECTION APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liberzon, Daniel

    POWER SYSTEM LINE OUTAGE DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION -- A QUICKEST CHANGE DETECTION APPROACH Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ABSTRACT A method to detect and isolate power system transmission line outages in near real-time is proposed

  3. Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning *

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning * W of the torus, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium. The first phase of the program to reduce the free tritium consisted of direct flowthrough of room air

  4. Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tritium Reduction and Control in the Vacuum Vessel During TFTR Outage and Decommissioning* W, a three tier system was developed for the outage in order to reduce and control the free tritium. The first phase of the program to reduce the free tritium consisted of direct flowthrough of room air

  5. Annual Steam System Maintenance Outage (2014) Beginning on Sunday, June 8th

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Firestone, Jeremy

    Annual Steam System Maintenance Outage (2014) Beginning on Sunday, June 8th at 12:00pm (Noon), the Central Utility Plant (CUP), which supplies steam service to over 100 buildings on the Newark campus, will be shut down for the annual Steam System Maintenance Outage. This effort is necessary each year to ensure

  6. Fast Detection and Mitigation of Cascading Outages in the Power System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pang, Chengzong

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation studies the causes and mechanism of power system cascading outages and proposes the improved interactive scheme between system-wide and local levels of monitoring and control to quickly detect, classify and mitigate the cascading...

  7. OTRA-THS MAC to reduce Power Outage Data Collection Latency in a smart meter network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garlapati, Shravan K [ORNL] [ORNL; Kuruganti, Phani Teja [ORNL] [ORNL; Buehrer, Richard M [ORNL] [ORNL; Reed, Jeffrey H [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure by the electric utilities poses unique communication challenges, particularly as the number of meters per aggregator increases. During a power outage, a smart meter tries to report it instantaneously to the electric utility. In a densely populated residential/industrial locality, it is possible that a large number of smart meters simultaneously try to get access to the communication network to report the power outage. If the number of smart meters is very high of the order of tens of thousands (metropolitan areas), the power outage data flooding can lead to Random Access CHannel (RACH) congestion. Several utilities are considering the use of cellular network for smart meter communications. In 3G/4G cellular networks, RACH congestion not only leads to collisions, retransmissions and increased RACH delays, but also has the potential to disrupt the dedicated traffic flow by increasing the interference levels (3G CDMA). In order to overcome this problem, in this paper we propose a Time Hierarchical Scheme (THS) that reduces the intensity of power outage data flooding and power outage reporting delay by 6/7th, and 17/18th when compared to their respective values without THS. Also, we propose an Optimum Transmission Rate Adaptive (OTRA) MAC to optimize the latency in power outage data collection. The analysis and simulation results presented in this paper show that both the OTRA and THS features of the proposed MAC results in a Power Outage Data Collection Latency (PODCL) that is 1/10th of the 4G LTE PODCL.

  8. Status Report on the Development of Micro-Scheduling Software for the Advanced Outage Control Center Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shawn St. Germain; Kenneth Thomas; Ronald Farris; Jeffrey Joe

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet, refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependent activities that are difficult to coordinate. Finding ways to improve refueling outage performance while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a R&D program which works with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current NPPs. The Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, this INL R&D project is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report describes specific recent efforts to develop a capability called outage Micro-Scheduling. Micro-Scheduling is the ability to allocate and schedule outage support task resources on a sub-hour basis. Micro-Scheduling is the real-time fine-tuning of the outage schedule to react to the actual progress of the primary outage activities to ensure that support task resources are optimally deployed with the least amount of delay and unproductive use of resources. The remaining sections of this report describe in more detail the scheduling challenges that occur during outages, how a Micro-Scheduling capability helps address those challenges, and provides a status update on work accomplished to date and the path forward.

  9. COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : · Two additional energy efficiency scenarios. · Carbon adder impact on coal plant dispatch. · Resource high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead have designed a set of six incentive-focused scenarios. The purpose of this...

  11. Policy on Building use during Ventilation Outage: School of Science Roger Bacon Hall and Morrell Science Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Policy on Building use during Ventilation Outage: School of Science Roger Bacon Hall and Morrell) are present. For this reason, the School of Science has a special policy for times when building ventilation is not functioning as designed. A common cause of inadequate building ventilation is a power outage. Laboratory

  12. Nuclear Safety Risk Management in Refueling Outage of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meijing Wu; Guozhang Shen [Qinshan Nuclear power company (China)

    2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The NPP is used to planning maintenance, in-service inspection, surveillance test, fuel handling and design modification in the refueling outage; the operator response capability will be reduced plus some of the plant systems out of service or loss of power at this time. Based on 8 times refueling outage experiences of the Qinshan NPP, this article provide some good practice and lesson learned for the nuclear safety risk management focus at four safety function areas of Residual Heat Removal Capability, Inventory Control, Power availability and Reactivity control. (authors)

  13. MonteCarlo and Analytical Methods for Forced Outage Rate Calculations of Peaking Units 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rondla, Preethi 1988-

    2012-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

    pessimistic results owing to its time spent in the reserve shut down state. Therefore the normal two state representation of a generating unit is not adequate. A four state model was proposed by an IEEE committee to calculate the forced outage rate...

  14. The detection, prevention and mitigation of cascading outages in the power system 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Hongbiao

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    all the time, and takes actions when needed to help detect, prevent and mitigate the possible cascading outage. Comprehensive simulation studies have been implemented using the IEEE 14- bus, 24-bus, 39-bus and 118-bus systems and promising results show...

  15. Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Wei

    Joint Power Control and Beamforming Codebook Design for MISO Channels under the Outage Criterion and beamforming codebooks for limited-feedback multiple-input single-output (MISO) wireless systems. The problem focuses on optimal design of single-user limited-feedback systems over multiple-input single-output (MISO

  16. Asymptotic Outage Performance of Power Allocation in Block-Fading Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillén i Fàbregas, Albert

    .nguyen@postgrads.unisa.edu.au Albert Guill´en i F`abregas Department of Engineering University of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK guillen@ieee.org Lars K. Rasmussen Institute for Telecommunications Research University of South Australia SA 5095, Australia lars.rasmussen@unisa.edu.au Abstract-- We characterize the asymptotic outage

  17. 96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amin, S. Massoud

    --settle for a substan- dard electricity infrastructure. We absolutely can meet the needs of a pervasively digital valued at US$358 billion. The electric power grid was historically operated by separate utilities; each96 IEEE power & energy magazine march/april 2005 T THE MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE OF August 2003

  18. Environmental determinants of unscheduled residential outages in the electrical power distribution of Phoenix, Arizona

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    service. The reliability of electrical power is important because many other infrastructures are directly of the electric power distribution infrastructure. There are many studies on the vulnerability of infrastructuresEnvironmental determinants of unscheduled residential outages in the electrical power distribution

  19. Outage Detection in Power Distribution Networks with Optimally-Deployed Power Flow Sensors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Yue

    Outage Detection in Power Distribution Networks with Optimally-Deployed Power Flow Sensors Yue Zhao deployed real-time power flow sensors and that of load estimates via Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI of Naval Research, under Grant N00014-12-1-0767. where supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA

  20. Power Line Damage, Electrical Outages Reduced in the ''Sleet Belt'': NICE3 Steel Project Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    2000-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    The AR Windamper System was developed through a grant from the Inventions and Innovation Program, to protect power transmission lines in sleet belt states and provinces by eliminating the ''galloping'' phenomenon. Wind damping products minimize power outages and reduce repair costs to transmission lines.

  1. Outage Analysis of Multi-node Amplify-and-Forward Relay Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, K. J. Ray

    Outage Analysis of Multi-node Amplify-and-Forward Relay Networks Karim G. Seddik, Ahmed K. Sadek, Weifeng Su , and K. J. Ray Liu Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, and Institute}@eng.umd.edu Department of Electrical Engineering, State University of New York (SUNY) at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA

  2. Outage Performance of a Multiuser Distributed Antenna System in Underwater Acoustic Channels

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Zhengdao

    1 Outage Performance of a Multiuser Distributed Antenna System in Underwater Acoustic Channels Zhaohui Wang, Shengli Zhou, Zhengdao Wang, Josko Catipovic§ and Peter Willett Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA Dept. of Electrical and Computer

  3. Asymptotic Outage Analysis of General Motion-Invariant Ad Hoc Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haenggi, Martin

    Asymptotic Outage Analysis of General Motion-Invariant Ad Hoc Networks Riccardo Giacomelli Dept Krishna Ganti Dept. of Electrical and Computer Eng. University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA E-mail: rganti@austin.utexas.edu Martin Haenggi Dept. of Electrical Engineering University of Notre Dame Notre

  4. Prediction-Based Recovery from Link Outages in On-Board Mobile Communication Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Libman, Lavy

    , such as those pro- posed for (and employed in) public transport vehicles, users are connected to a local network transport routes, and their repetitive nature, allows a certain degree of prediction of impending link extension known as Freeze-TCP, we study how the performance of the protocol depends on the outage prediction

  5. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  6. Sensitivity and Scenario Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Winston

    Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

  7. A convex approximation approach to Weighted Sum Rate Maximization of Multiuser MISO Interference Channel under outage constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Wei-Chiang; Lin, Che; Chi, Chong-Yung

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper considers weighted sum rate maximization of multiuser multiple-input single-output interference channel (MISO-IFC) under outage constraints. The outage-constrained weighted sum rate maximization problem is a nonconvex optimization problem and is difficult to solve. While it is possible to optimally deal with this problem in an exhaustive search manner by finding all the Pareto-optimal rate tuples in the (discretized) outage-constrained achievable rate region, this approach, however, suffers from a prohibitive computational complexity and is feasible only when the number of transmitter-receive pairs is small. In this paper, we propose a convex optimization based approximation method for efficiently handling the outage-constrained weighted sum rate maximization problem. The proposed approximation method consists of solving a sequence of convex optimization problems, and thus can be efficiently implemented by interior-point methods. Simulation results show that the proposed method can yield near-optim...

  8. 1186 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 54, NO. 3, MARCH 2008 DiversityMultiplexing Tradeoff and Outage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Yong Hoon

    is derived. The DMT and outage performance are also analyzed for Rician mul- tiple-input­single-output (MISO- icantly improve link reliability by transmit diversity such as space­time coding [4], [5]. However

  9. Probability Primer 1 Running head: PROBABILITY PRIMER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yuille, Alan L.

    provides the opportunity to draw upon work in computer science, engineering, mathematics, and statisticsProbability Primer 1 Running head: PROBABILITY PRIMER A Primer on Probabilistic Inference Thomas L. Griffiths Department of Psychology University of California, Berkeley Alan Yuille Department of Statistics

  10. Outages of electric power supply resulting from cable failures Boston Edison Company system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1980-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Factual data are provided regarding 5 electric power supply interruptions that occurred in the Boston Metropolitan area during April to June, 1979. Common to all of these outages was the failure of an underground cable as the initiating event, followed by multiple equipment failures. There was significant variation in the voltage ratings and types of cables which failed. The investigation was unable to delineate a single specific Boston Edison design operating or maintenance practice that could be cited as the cause of the outages. After reviewing the investigative report the following actions were recommended: the development and implementation of a plan to eliminate the direct current cable network; develop a network outage restoration plan; regroup primary feeder cables wherever possible to minimize the number of circuits in manholes, and to separate feeders to high load density areas; develop a program to detect incipient cable faults; evaluate the separation of the north and south sections of Back Bay network into separate networks; and, as a minimum, install the necessary facilities to make it possible to re-energize one section without interfering with the other; and re-evaluate the cathodic protection scheme where necessary. (LCL)

  11. Feasibility Study for the K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (643-1G)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Palmer, E.R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (KBPOP) is one of four BPOP areas at Savannah River Site (SRS), collectively referred to as the BPOP waste unit group. This Feasibility Study (FS) of Remedial Alternatives serves as the lead FS for the BPOP waste unit group. This section identifies the purpose and scope of the FS and presents site background information summarized from the Final Remedial Investigation Report with Baseline Risk Assessment (RI/BRA) WSRC-RP- 95-1555, Rev. 1.2 (WSRC 1997).

  12. Power line damage, electrical outages, reduced in the {open_quotes}sleet belt{close_quotes}

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Companies that depend on reliable supplies of electricity, as well as electrical utilities, need to defend against weather-related damage and power outages. Weather-related damage claims in the U.S. totaled $16 billion during the ten-year span from 1980 through 1989 and have already reached $48 billion in the first five years of this decade, evidence that climate change could be causing more severe storms. This makes technology that minimizes weather damage all the more welcome. Ice and snow build-up on high-voltage electric power lines in a moderate to high winds causes high-amplitude low-frequency mechanical vibrations, called galloping. When power lines react aero-elastically to these conditions, undamped vibration tears apart transmission towers and fittings or propels lines into each other, shorting out large circuits. Besides causing costly electric system outages and structural damage, this dramatic phenomenon steals power through higher electricity line losses that occur when other conductors have to carry more power to compensate for a tripped or damaged line. In a 1981 survey, 17 of 38 utilities reported that galloping was a moderate to severe problem, and 11 reported that they had a galloping event at least once a year. Fifty-seven percent of the incidents included flashover, and 60% included structural damage.

  13. Transition probabilities and measurement statistics of postselected ensembles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tobias Fritz

    2010-07-20T23:59:59.000Z

    It is well-known that a quantum measurement can enhance the transition probability between two quantum states. Such a measurement operates after preparation of the initial state and before postselecting for the final state. Here we analyze this kind of scenario in detail and determine which probability distributions on a finite number of outcomes can occur for an intermediate measurement with postselection, for given values of the following two quantities: (i) the transition probability without measurement, (ii) the transition probability with measurement. This is done for both the cases of projective measurements and of generalized measurements. Among other constraints, this quantifies a trade-off between high randomness in a projective measurement and high measurement-modified transition probability. An intermediate projective measurement can enhance a transition probability such that the failure probability decreases by a factor of up to 2, but not by more.

  14. Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard

    2006-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)

  15. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 24, NO. 3, AUGUST 2009 1633 Direct Calculation of Line Outage Distribution Factors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fu, Yong

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 24, NO. 3, AUGUST 2009 1633 Direct Calculation of Line significantly the security analyses of power systems. This letter provides two direct proofs for expressing distribution factor, power transfer distribution factor, shift factor. I. INTRODUCTION LINE outage distribution

  16. Olkiluoto 1 and 2 - Plant efficiency improvement and lifetime extension-project (PELE) implemented during outages 2010 and 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kosonen, M.; Hakola, M. [Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, F- 27160 Eurajoki (Finland)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) is a non-listed public company founded in 1969 to produce electricity for its stakeholders. TVO is the operator of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. TVO follows the principle of continuous improvement in the operation and maintenance of the Olkiluoto plant units. The PELE project (Plant Efficiency Improvement and Lifetime Extension), mainly completed during the annual outages in 2010 and 2011, and forms one part of the systematic development of Olkiluoto units. TVO maintains a long-term development program that aims at systematically modernizing the plant unit systems and equipment based on the latest technology. According to the program, the Olkiluoto 1 and Olkiluoto 2 plant units are constantly renovated with the intention of keeping them safe and reliable, The aim of the modernization projects is to improve the safety, reliability, and performance of the plant units. PELE project at Olkiluoto 1 was done in 2010 and at Olkiluoto 2 in 2011. The outage length of Olkiluoto 1 was 26 d 12 h 4 min and Olkiluoto 2 outage length was 28 d 23 h 46 min. (Normal service-outage is about 14 days including refueling and refueling-outage length is about seven days. See figure 1) The PELE project consisted of several single projects collected into one for coordinated project management. Some of the main projects were as follows: - Low pressure turbines: rotor, stator vane, casing and turbine instrumentation replacement. - Replacement of Condenser Cooling Water (later called seawater pumps) pumps - Replacement of inner isolation valves on the main steam lines. - Generator and the generator cooling system replacement. - Low voltage switchgear replacement. This project will continue during future outages. PELE was a success. 100 TVO employees and 1500 subcontractor employees participated in the project. The execution of the PELE projects went extremely well during the outages. The replacement of the low pressure turbines and seawater pumps improved the efficiency of the plant units, and a power increase of nearly 20 MW was achieved at both plant units. PELE wonderfully manifests one of the strategic goals of our company; developing the competence of our in-house personnel by working in projects. (authors)

  17. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  18. Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

  19. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

    2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

  20. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  1. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T. (Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland)); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States))

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  2. The probability, identification, and prevention of rare events in power systems Qiming Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Major: Electrical Engineering (Electric Power) Program of Study Committee: James D ...............................................................................................10 1.4 Classification of Multiple Outage Contingencies .................................................................................................21 2.3 Cluster Model for High-order Transmission Outages ......................................... 23

  3. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  4. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  5. Scenario Reduction and Scenario Tree Construction for Power Management Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    to hydro units, and fuel and electricity prices). For most practical problems the optimization problem and optimization techniques for the generation and trading of electric power under uncertainty. Utilities partic optimization models for the operation and plan- ning of power utilities use scenarios to deal with uncertainty

  6. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olofsson, Peter

    , science, and engineering students. Other than the basic probability theory, my goal was to in- cludeProbability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes Peter Olofsson A Wiley-Interscience Publication had been teaching a course on calculus-based probability and statistics mainly for mathematics

  7. Modeling Emergency Scenarios Algebraic Higher Order Nets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wichmann, Felix

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1.1 Scenario 1: Gas Leak in a Residential Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1.2 Scenario 2: Explosion of a Gas Pipeline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 4.2 General Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 Introduction to Pipeline Emergency Scenarios 21 4.1 Possible Scenarios

  8. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dougherty, Daniel J.

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

  9. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krishnamurthi, Shriram

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041clothAdvanced Materials Advanced Materials Find Find MoreTechnical Report: Biomass Scenario

  11. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a scenario may be an oil price hike in a future year, whichon the impact of high oil prices on the global economy (seethe scenario of a high oil price (of US$35/barrel, which is

  12. Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Church-Duran, Jennifer; Ludwig, Deborah

    2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of the scenario workshop participants subsequently served on the libraries’ strategic-planning groups. As the Steering Committee began conducting an environmental scan with a detailed SWOT analysis, the earlier scenario activities appeared to have both informed...

  13. Report on Scenario Development and Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Natural Energy Institute School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology November 2007 #12................................................................................................................................................4 Scenario 1: Higher wind penetration-as-usual ................................................................................................................................7 Scenario 1: Higher Wind Penetration

  14. Organizational scenarios for the use of learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects Henry Hermans and Fred de Vries October 2006 Learning objects in practice 2 #12;Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects page 2 of 22 Colophon Organizational scenario's for the use of learning objects Learning objects in practice 2

  15. Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Conference Vilamoura, Portugal November 1, 2004 QTYUIOP #12;THE DIII­D TEAM CONSISTS OF >300­D #12;DIII­D PROGRAM GOAL: TO ESTABLISH THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE TOKAMAK 248Time G tdur/R 0 2 4 6 108 ITER Baseline ScenarioTarget Baseline Scenario Hybrid Scenario Other 0.0 0.2 0

  16. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82070 (United States)

    2009-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  17. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  18. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  19. Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

    2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

  20. California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas demands are forecast for the four natural gas utilitythe 2006-2016 Forecast. Commercial natural gas demand isforecasts and demand scenarios. Electricity planning area Natural gas

  1. Optimization Online - Dynamic Generation of Scenario Trees

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Ch. Pflug

    2014-09-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Sep 3, 2014 ... Abstract: We present new algorithms for the dynamic generation of scenario trees for multistage stochastic optimization. The different methods ...

  2. California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways indo not include the alternative energy pathways (such asmodeling to investigate alternative energy supply strategies

  3. Monitoring and Control in Scenario-Based Requirements Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bae, Doo-Hwan

    scenarios are detected #12;9 / 19 Implied Scenarios (3/3) Example Boiler Control System Implied Scenario of Boiler Control System Control pressure #12;10 / 19 Input-Output Implied Scenarios (1/4) Ability

  4. How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

  5. Fusion Probability in Dinuclear System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Juhee Hong

    2015-03-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Fusion can be described by the time evolution of a dinuclear system with two degrees of freedom, the relative motion and transfer of nucleons. In the presence of the coupling between two collective modes, we solve the Fokker-Planck equation in a locally harmonic approximation. The potential of a dinuclear system has the quasifission barrier and the inner fusion barrier, and the escape rates can be calculated by the Kramers' model. To estimate the fusion probability, we calculate the quasifission rate and the fusion rate. We investigate the coupling effects on the fusion probability and the cross section of evaporation residue.

  6. Quantum correlations; quantum probability approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. A. Majewski

    2015-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    This survey gives a comprehensive account of quantum correlations understood as a phenomenon stemming from the rules of quantization. Centered on quantum probability it describes the physical concepts related to correlations (both classical and quantum), mathematical structures, and their consequences. These include the canonical form of classical correlation functionals, general definitions of separable (entangled) states, definition and analysis of quantumness of correlations, description of entanglement of formation, and PPT states. This work is intended both for physicists interested not only in collection of results but also in the mathematical methods justifying them, and mathematicians looking for an application of quantum probability to concrete new problems of quantum theory.

  7. ALTERNATIVE JET FUEL SCENARIO ANALYSIS Final Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 ALTERNATIVE JET FUEL SCENARIO ANALYSIS REPORT Final Report U.S. Department of Transportation Alternative jet fuel scenario analysis report 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Kristin Lewis, Shuchi Mitra production of alternative aviation (jet) fuels in North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico

  8. Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poole, David

    Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability: a top-down anytime algorithm for estimating prior, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2 poole@cs.ubc.ca March 17, 1993 Abstract Probabilistic Horn abduction logically. The relationship be- tween probabilistic Horn abduction and logic programming is at two levels

  9. MACHINE MONITORING USING PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pollock, Stephen

    MACHINE MONITORING USING PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS AND SYSTEM OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS Stephen M and Jeffrey M. Alden G.M. R&D Center Warren, MI 48090 IOE Tech Report 95-14 #12;1. Introduction We a discrete-part production machine, with the objective of effectively determining when to shut the machine

  10. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 7. Accident analysis; selection and assessment of potential release scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this part of the assessment, several accident scenarios are identified that could result in significant releases of chemicals into the environment. These scenarios include ruptures of storage tanks, large magnitude on-site spills, mixing of incompatible wastes, and off-site releases caused by tranpsortation accidents. In evaluating these scenarios, both probability and consequence are assessed, so that likelihood of occurrence is coupled with magnitude of effect in characterizing short term risks.

  11. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  12. Modeling System Threat Probabilities Using Mixed-Radix Multiple-Valued Logic Decision

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thornton, Mitchell

    Modeling System Threat Probabilities Using Mixed-Radix Multiple-Valued Logic Decision Diagrams securing systems from both natural and intentional threats. Extremely large and complex systems can have an ac- cordingly large number of threat scenarios, thus simply listing the threats and devising

  13. Correlations In n-local Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaushiki Mukherjee; Biswajit Paul; Debasis Sarkar

    2015-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Recently Bell-type inequalities were introduced in Phys. Rev. A \\textbf{85}, 032119 (2012) to analyze the correlations emerging in an entanglement swapping scenario characterized by independence of the two sources shared between three parties. The corresponding scenario was referred to as \\textit{bilocal} scenario. Here, we derive Bell-type inequalities in $n+1$ party scenario, i.e., in $n$-local scenario. Considering the two different cases with several number of inputs and outputs, we derive local and $n$-local bounds. The $n$-local inequality studied for two cases are proved to be tight. Replacing the sources by maximally entangled states for two binary inputs and two binary outputs and also for the fixed input and four outputs, we observe quantum violations of $n$-local bounds. But the resistance offered to noise cannot be increased as compared to the bilocal scenario. Thus increasing the number of parties in a linear fashion in source independent scenario does not contribute in lowering down the requirements of revealing quantumness in a network in contrast to the star configuration (Phys. Rev. A \\textbf{90}, 062109 (2014)) of $n+1$ parties.

  14. Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. E. Lawler; E. A. Den Hartog; C. Sneden; J. J. Cowan

    2005-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).

  15. California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and natural gas scenarios, is that fuel economy increasesvehicle fuel economy). For natural gas and electricity, theNatural gas EUI All Shipments CEC, 2005a Electricity EUI VMT Vehicle stock Fuel economy

  16. California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher; Ogden, Joan M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    California Energy Demand Scenario Projections to 2050 RyanCEC (2003a) California energy demand 2003-2013 forecast.CEC (2005a) California energy demand 2006-2016: Staff energy

  17. SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ..................11 Table 2: Levelized System Costs ($2006/MWh) .................................................12CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY REPORT ADDENDUM STAFFDRAFTREPORT JULY 2007 CEC-200

  18. The Programmer's Apprentice: A Program Design Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rich, Charles

    1987-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of a proposed Design Apprentice, focussing on the area of detailed, low-level design. Given a specification, the Design Apprentice will be able to make many of the ...

  19. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  20. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  1. Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    E. A. Den Hartog; J. E. Lawler; C. Sneden; J. J. Cowan

    2006-09-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Gd abundance, log epsilon = 1.11 +/- 0.03. Revised Gd abundances have also been derived for the r-process-rich metal-poor giant stars CS 22892-052, BD+17 3248, and HD 115444. The resulting Gd/Eu abundance ratios are in very good agreement with the solar-system r-process ratio. We have employed the increasingly accurate stellar abundance determinations, resulting in large part from the more precise laboratory atomic data, to predict directly the Solar System r-process elemental abundances for Gd, Sm, Ho and Nd. Our analysis of the stellar data suggests slightly higher recommended values for the r-process contribution and total Solar System values, consistent with the photospheric determinations, for the elements for Gd, Sm, and Ho.

  2. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; /Zurich U. /Paris, Inst. Astrophys.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC /Kansas U.; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; /Valencia U., IFIC; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  3. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W. [Carleton University, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies

    2007-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  4. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  5. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment...

  6. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak...

  7. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape...

  8. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by...

  9. Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. E. Lawler; E. A. Den Hartog; Z. E. Labby; C. Sneden; J. J. Cowan; I. I. Ivans

    2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement for measurements in common. Our new laboratory data are applied to refine the hafnium photospheric solar abundance and to determine hafnium abundances in 10 metal-poor giant stars with enhanced r-process abundances. For the Sun we derive log epsilon (Hf) = 0.88 +/- 0.08 from four lines; the uncertainty is dominated by the weakness of the lines and their blending by other spectral features. Within the uncertainties of our analysis, the r-process-rich stars possess constant Hf/La and Hf/Eu abundance ratios, log epsilon (Hf/La) = -0.13 +/- 0.02 (sigma = 0.06) and log epsilon (Hf/Eu) = +0.04 +/- 0.02 (sigma = 0.06). The observed average stellar abundance ratio of Hf/Eu and La/Eu is larger than previous estimates of the solar system r-process-only value, suggesting a somewhat larger contribution from the r-process to the production of Hf and La. The newly determined Hf values could be employed as part of the chronometer pair, Th/Hf, to determine radioactive stellar ages.

  10. Modeling Prostate Cancer Detection Probability, with Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Serfling, Robert

    investigating causes and treatments. Robert Serfling Modeling Prostate Cancer Detection Probability cancer present as well as tumor nodule sizes, to judge clinical significance before treatment selectionModeling Prostate Cancer Detection Probability, with Applications Robert Serfling1 University

  11. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  12. Optimization Online - Classification with Guaranteed Probability of ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marco C. Campi

    2009-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 18, 2009 ... Classification with Guaranteed Probability of Error. Marco C. ... Category 3: Applications -- Science and Engineering (Statistics ). Citation:.

  13. Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.

  14. Discussion Of Scenario ResultsDiscussion Of Scenario Results Michael Schilmoeller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    At 84% capacity factor, the Council's Carbon Footprint Paper estimates regional coal plant carbon (Btu/kWh) tons CO2/MWh RPM & Genesys (%) Council's Carbon Footprint paper Boardman 601.0 84% 504 Committee Web Conference Thursday, May 28, 2009 #12;2 ScenariosScenarios Base case Suspend Carbon Policy

  15. Notes on Probability Peter J. Cameron

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Banaji,. Murad

    will need the statistical tables. · Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences by Jay L. De use instead are: · Probability and Statistics in Engineering and Management Science by W. W. Hines probabilistic ideas in statistical inference and modelling, and the study of stochastic processes. Probability

  16. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oren, Shmuel S.

    Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences http://journals.cambridge.org/PES Additional services for Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences: Email alerts: Click here Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences / Volume 8 / Issue 02 / April 1994, pp 287 290 DOI

  17. New energy, new hazards ? The hydrogen scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    engines using hydrogen or hydrogen based mixtures, fuel cell systems), electrical plants, systemsNew energy, new hazards ? The hydrogen scenario Lionel PERRETTE, Samira CHELHAOUI Institut National a practical experience on hydrogen safety. Among others, the following experimental topics have been dealt

  18. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) TruckH2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg

  19. Managing Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    prescribed innovation methods, inovation is as much about a social process and context as it is a systematic process, thus making it somewhat naturalistic in character [3,4]. How does one manage innovation used for military planning and by the petrochemical industry [6]. Scenarios allow information

  20. AGN jet launch scenarios Rony Keppens

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AGN jet launch scenarios Rony Keppens Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven Rony Keppens (KU Leuven) Jet launch Nov. 2013, IAC winter school 1 / 48 #12;Astrophysical Jets · astrophysical jets: ubiquitous presence of accretion disks Young Stellar Objects (YSO

  1. Reading for Thursday Emissions scenario summary

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schweik, Charles M.

    emissions, for year 2000 #12;USA ­ CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (2005) US EPA #12;#12;#12;Decreasing 13C strongly suggests that the source of atmospheric CO2 is fossil carbon #12;Line of evidence #1Reading for Thursday · Emissions scenario summary: ­ Read pages 3-6 · IPCC Chapter 11 (Regional

  2. Preview of Scenario Planning & Collaborative Modeling Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , changes over time." - Global Business Network #12;Jakali Nokandeh When it comes to climate change, we don and consider the pressures they play. Climate Variable General Change Expected Confidence Level Temperature and quantitative data and information. · Both are communication tools #12;What are Scenarios? · Stories about

  3. Refinery Outages: Fall 2014

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghurajiConventionalMississippi"site.1 Relative Standard Errors for TableCORPORATION /Product:

  4. Scheduled System Outages

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItemResearch > TheNuclearHomeland andEffectsScanning/TransmissionScheduled System

  5. Problems with Objective Probability for Conditionals What Bennett Means by Objective Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fitelson, Branden

    Problems with Objective Probability for Conditionals What Bennett Means by Objective Probability Objective probability is any sort of probability which demands inter- subjective agreement. Bennett Bennett introduces this as a three place relation, R(P,Q,n), between a proposition P, body of evidence Q

  6. Analogue of the quantum total probability rule from Paraconsistent bayesian probability theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. Salazar; C. Jara-Figueroa; A. Delgado

    2014-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

    We derive an analogue of the quantum total probability rule by constructing a probability theory based on paraconsistent logic. Bayesian probability theory is constructed upon classical logic and a desiderata, that is, a set of desired properties that the theory must obey. We construct a new probability theory following the desiderata of Bayesian probability theory but replacing the classical logic by paraconsistent logic. This class of logic has been conceived to handle eventual inconsistencies or contradictions among logical propositions without leading to the trivialisation of the theory. Within this Paraconsistent bayesian probability theory it is possible to deduce a new total probability rule which depends on the probabilities assigned to the inconsistencies. Certain assignments of values for these probabilities lead to expressions identical to those of Quantum mechanics, in particular to the quantum total probability rule obtained via symmetric informationally complete positive- operator valued measure.

  7. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  8. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kracklauer, A. F. [Bauhaus Universitaet, PF 2040, 99401 Weimar (Germany)

    2007-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  9. Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas Marlow

    2006-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

    We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.

  10. String GUT scenarios with stabilized moduli

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blumenhagen, Ralph; Moster, Sebastian; Plauschinn, Erik [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Foehringer Ring 6, 80805 Muenchen (Germany)

    2008-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Taking into account the recently proposed poly-instanton corrections to the superpotential and combining the racetrack with a Kachru-Kallosh-Linde-Trivedi, respectively, large volume scenario in an intricate manner, we show that we gain exponential control over the parameters in an effective superpotential. This allows us to dynamically stabilize moduli such that a conventional minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario with the string scale lowered to the grand unified theory scale is realized. Depending on the cycles wrapped by the minimal supersymmetric standard model branes, two different scenarios for the hierarchy of soft masses arise. The first one is a supergravity mediated model with M{sub 3/2}{approx_equal}1 TeV while the second one features mixed anomaly supergravity mediation with M{sub 3/2}{approx_equal}10{sup 10} GeV and split supersymmetry. We also comment on dynamically lowering the scales such that the tree level cosmological constant is of the order {lambda}=(10{sup -3} eV){sup 4}.

  11. Quantum Statistical Mechanics. III. Equilibrium Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phil Attard

    2014-04-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Given are a first principles derivation and formulation of the probabilistic concepts that underly equilibrium quantum statistical mechanics. The transition to non-equilibrium probability is traversed briefly.

  12. Analytical Study of Thermonuclear Reaction Probability Integrals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. A. Chaudhry; H. J. Haubold; A. M. Mathai

    2000-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

    An analytic study of the reaction probability integrals corresponding to the various forms of the slowly varying cross-section factor $S(E)$ is attempted. Exact expressions for reaction probability integrals are expressed in terms of the extended gamma functions.

  13. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

    2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  14. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  15. Modeling of Human Intrusion Scenarios at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gross, M.B.; Hansen, F.D.; Knowles, M.K.; Larson, K.W.; Thompson, T.W.

    1998-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is a mined, geologic repository designed for permanent disposal of transuranic waste. The facility is owned by the United States Department of Energy, and licensed for operations by the Environmental Protection Agency. Compliance with license requirements dictates that the repository must comply with regulatory stipulations that performance assessment calculations include the effects of resource exploitation on probable releases. Scenarios for these releases incorporate inadvertent penetration of the repository by an exploratory drilling operation. This paper presents the scenarios and models used to predict releases from the repository to the biosphere during. an inadvertent intrusion into the waste disposal regions. A summary of model results and conclusions is also presented.

  16. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linde, A. [Department of Physics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Mukhanov, V. [Arnold-Sommerfeld-Center for Theoretical Physics, Department für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Theresienstr. 37, D-80333, Munich (Germany); Vikman, A., E-mail: alinde@stanford.edu, E-mail: Viatcheslav.Mukhanov@physik.uni-muenchen.de, E-mail: alexander.vikman@googlemail.com [CCPP, New York University, Meyer Hall of Physics, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  17. Scenario Analysis Meeting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOrigin ofEnergy atLLC - FE DKT. 10-160-LNG -EnergyProcess| DepartmentItalian).pdfScenario

  18. Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreakingMay 2015 <Department ofDepartment| DepartmentScale Models andScenario

  19. Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreaking of Blythe SolarContamination Detector Workshop HydrogenScenario Analysis

  20. Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to:EzfeedflagBiomass ConversionsSouthby 2022 | OpenEI Community Biomass PowerScenario Model

  1. Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training...

  2. The probability of intersystem LOCA: impact due to leak testing and operational changes. Technical report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rubin, M.P.

    1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) identified the potential intersystem LOCA in a pressurized water reactor as a significant contributor to the risk resulting from core melt. Similar scenarios are also possible in boiling water reactors. This report evaluates various pressure isolation valve configurations used in reactors to determine the probability of intersystem LOCA. It is shown that periodic leak testing of these valves can substantially reduce intersystem LOCA probability. Specific analyses of the high pressure/low pressure interfaces in the Sequoyah (PWR) and Alan B. Barton (BWR) plants show that periodic leak testing of the pressure isolation check valves will reduce the intersystem LOCA probability to below 0.000001 per year.

  3. Roadmap for Real World Internet applications Socioeconomic scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Roadmap for Real World Internet applications ­ Socioeconomic scenarios and design recommendations that is feasible to roadmap the dynamic deployment of Real World Internet applications. A multi- faceted scenarios. These scenarios are used as a roadmap for the system and architecture deployment. The application

  4. Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California May 21.6.4 Alternative Scenario 3 ­ Patriotic Energy Independence Section 3: Developing the Scenario Model and Examining, 2002 by Rebecca Ghanadan rebeccag@socrates.berkeley.edu The Energy and Resources Group University

  5. Executability of Scenarios in Petri Nets Robert Lorenz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Desel, Jörg

    Executability of Scenarios in Petri Nets Robert Lorenz Lehrstuhl f¨ur Angewandte Informatik whether a scenario is an execution of a Petri net. This holds for a wide variety of Petri net classes, ranging from elementary nets to general inhibitor nets. Scenarios are given by causal structures

  6. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McClure, J. D.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10/sup -7/ spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10/sup -9//mile.

  7. PALC: Extending ALC ABoxes with Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jäger, Gerhard

    on description logics can be found in [BCM+ 03] and [BKW03]. For many applications it is important to extend on probabilities on terminological axioms, see for example [BKW03, Hei94, KLP97]. Notable exceptions are [Jae94, GL

  8. Cumulative Probability of Blast Fragmentation Effect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oleg Mazonka

    2013-04-05T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents formulae for calculation of cumulative probability of effect made by blast fragments. Analysis with Mott distribution, discrete fragment enumeration, spatial non-uniformity, numerical issues, and a generalisation for a set of effects are also discussed.

  9. Cumulative Probability of Blast Fragmentation Effect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazonka, Oleg

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents formulae for calculation of cumulative probability of effect made by blast fragments. Analysis with Mott distribution, discrete fragment enumeration, spatial non-uniformity, numerical issues, and a generalisation for a set of effects are also discussed.

  10. Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje [Theoretical Physics Division, Rudjer Boskovic Institute, P.O. Box 180, HR-10002 Zagreb (Croatia); Glavan, Drazen [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, P.O. Box 331, HR-10002 Zagreb (Croatia)

    2010-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

  11. Engineering, Nutrient Removal, and Feedstock Conversion Evaluations of Four Corn Stover Harvest Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed L. Hoskinson; Douglas L. Karlen; Stuart J. Birrell; Corey W. Radtke; W.W. Wilhelm

    2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Crop residue has been identified as a near-term source of biomass for renewable fuel, heat, power, chemicals and other bio-materials. Replicated plots were established in a corn (Zea mays L.) field near Ames, IA to evaluate four harvest scenarios (low cut, high-cut top, high-cut bottom, and normal cut). A prototype one-pass harvest system was used to collect the residue samples. High-cut top and high-cut bottom samples were obtained from the same plots in two separate operations. Chemical composition, dilute acid pretreatment response, ethanol conversion efficiency and gasification parameters for each scenario were determined. Mean grain yield (10.1 Mg ha-1 dry weight) was representative of the area. The four harvest scenarios removed 6.7, 4.9, 1.7, and 5.1 Mg ha-1 of dry matter. Expressed as harvest indices (HI) the values were 0.60 for low cut, 0.66 for normal cut, and 0.61 for the total high-cut (top + bottom) scenarios, which are probably realistic for machine harvest and current hybrids. The macro-nutrient replacement value for the normal harvest scenario under our conditions was $57.36 ha-1 or $11.27 Mg-1. Harvesting stalk bottoms increased the water content, the risk of combine damage, the transportation costs, and left insufficient soil cover, while also producing a problematic feedstock. Harvesting stover at current combine height (~40 cm) would be best for farmers and ethanol producers because of better harvest speed and efficiency as well as the quality of the ethanol feedstock.

  12. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well.

  13. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  14. Emergence in Holographic Scenarios for Gravity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dieks, Dennis; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightfowardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and ...

  15. Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Çelik, Gültekin, E-mail: gultekin@selcuk.edu.tr [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Selçuk University, Campus 42049 Konya (Turkey); Gökçe, Yasin; Y?ld?z, Murat [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Karamanoglu Mehmetbey University, Karaman (Turkey)

    2014-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

  16. Probability of Slowroll Inflation in the Multiverse

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    I-Sheng Yang

    2012-10-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Slowroll after tunneling is a crucial step in one popular framework of the multiverse---false vacuum eternal inflation (FVEI). In a landscape with a large number of fields, we provide a heuristic estimation for its probability. We find that the chance to slowroll is exponentially suppressed, where the exponent comes from the number of fields. However, the relative probability to have more e-foldings is only mildly suppressed as $N_e^{-\\alpha} $ with $\\alpha\\sim3$. Base on these two properties, we show that the FVEI picture is still self-consistent and may have a strong preference between different slowroll models.

  17. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC; ,

    2010-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  18. Possible Generalizations within Braneworld Scenarios: Torsion fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J M Hoff da Silva; Roldao da Rocha

    2010-12-09T23:59:59.000Z

    In this Chapter we introduce the aspects in which torsion can influence the formalism of braneworld scenarios in general, and also how it is possible to measure such kind of effects, namely, for instance, the blackstring transverse area corrections and variation of quasar luminosity due to those corrections. We analyze the projected effective Einstein equation in a 4-dimensional arbitrary manifold embedded in a 5-dimensional Riemann-Cartan manifold. The Israel-Darmois matching conditions are investigated, in the context where the torsion discontinuity is orthogonal to the brane. Unexpectedly, the presence of torsion terms in the connection does not modify such conditions whatsoever, despite of the modification in the extrinsic curvature and in the connection. Then, by imposing the Z2-symmetry, the Einstein equation obtained via Gauss-Codazzi formalism is extended, in order to now encompass the torsion terms. We also show that the factors involving contorsion change drastically the effective Einstein equation on the brane, as well as the effective cosmological constant. Also, we present gravitational aspects of braneworld models endowed with torsion terms both in the bulk and on the brane. In order to investigate a conceivable and measurable gravitational effect, arising genuinely from bulk torsion terms, we analyze the variation in the black hole area by the presence of torsion. Furthermore, we extend the well known results about consistency conditions in a framework that incorporates brane torsion terms. It is shown, in a rough estimate, that the resulting effects are generally suppressed by the internal space volume.

  19. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  20. An Alternative Yukawa Unified SUSY Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    James S. Gainer; Ran Huo; Carlos E. M. Wagner

    2011-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Supersymmetric SO(10) Grand Unified Theories with Yukawa unification represent an appealing possibility for physics beyond the Standard Model. However Yukawa unification is made difficult by large threshold corrections to the bottom mass. Generally one is led to consider models where the sfermion masses are large in order to suppress these corrections. Here we present another possibility, in which the top and bottom GUT scale Yukawa couplings are equal to a component of the charged lepton Yukawa matrix at the GUT scale in a basis where this matrix is not diagonal. Physically, this weak eigenstate Yukawa unification scenario corresponds to the case where the charged leptons that are in the 16 of SO(10) containing the top and bottom quarks mix with their counterparts in another SO(10) multiplet. Diagonalizing the resulting Yukawa matrix introduces mixings in the neutrino sector. Specifically we find that for a large region of parameter space with relatively light sparticles, and which has not been ruled out by current LHC or other data, the mixing induced in the neutrino sector is such that $sin^2 2\\Theta_{23} \\approx 1$, in agreement with data. The phenomenological implications are analyzed in some detail.

  1. Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melendez, M.

    2007-05-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.

  2. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2006-09-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.

  3. advanced tokamak scenario: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

  4. advanced operation scenarios: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

  5. advanced tokamak scenarios: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Advanced scenarios for ITER operation Physics Websites Summary: @ipp.mpg.de Abstract In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading...

  6. Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation on Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios given by Sigmund Gronich of DOE during the DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop on January 26, 2006.

  7. Optimization Online - The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    German Morales-España

    2014-09-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Sep 16, 2014 ... The Worst-case Wind Power Scenario for Adaptive Robust Unit Commitment Problems. German Morales-España(gmorales ***at*** kth.se).

  8. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in...

  9. Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berry, R. Stephen

    Topologies to geometries in protein folding: Hierarchical and nonhierarchical scenarios Ariel Ferna presents a method to portray protein folding dynamics at a coarse resolution, based on a pattern

  10. Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

  11. Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sub-national Planners Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners...

  12. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

  13. 3. Probability inequalities 3.1. Introduction. Probability inequalities are an important instrument which is

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagaev, Sergei V.

    . Among classical probabilities are those by S.N. Bernstein (see [1, III, §3, Theorem 18]) and Bennet [2) decrease exponentially as x for all summand forming the sum n j=1 Xj. As to the Bennet] is adjacent to the Bennet­Hoeffding inequality. That was rather a limited list of probability inequalities

  14. 3. Probability inequalities 3.1. Introduction. Probability inequalities are an important instrument which is

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagaev, Sergei V.

    . Among classical probabilities are those by S.N. Bernstein (see [1, III, §3, Theorem 18]) and Bennet [2(X j > x) decrease exponentially as x ## for all summand forming the sum # n j=1 X j . As to the Bennet] is adjacent to the Bennet--Hoe#ding inequality. That was rather a limited list of probability inequalities

  15. Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability David Poole

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poole, David

    Logic Programming, Abduction and Probability David Poole Department of Computer Science, University 5485 Abstract Probabilistic Horn abduction is a simple frame­ work to combine probabilistic and logical abduction and logic pro­ gramming is at two levels. At the first level probabilistic Horn abduction

  16. How to determine threat probabilities using ontologies and Bayesian networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    How to determine threat probabilities using ontologies and Bayesian networks [Extended Abstract Business Austria Vienna, Austria neubauer@securityresearch.ac.at ABSTRACT The subjective threat probability- and Bayesian-based approach for determining asset-specific and comprehensible threat probabilities

  17. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; Jungels, John; Oppel, Fred J., [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these chal- lenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in %22cloud%22 computing and %22big-data%22 methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing envirnoment that could provide the foundation (i.e. %22cloud%22) for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of %22parallel multi-simulation%22. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  18. Probability-Based Software for Grid Optimization: Improved Power System Operations Using Advanced Stochastic Optimization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2012-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

    GENI Project: Sandia National Laboratories is working with several commercial and university partners to develop software for market management systems (MMSs) that enable greater use of renewable energy sources throughout the grid. MMSs are used to securely and optimally determine which energy resources should be used to service energy demand across the country. Contributions of electricity to the grid from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, introducing complications for MMSs, which have trouble accommodating the multiple sources of price and supply uncertainties associated with bringing these new types of energy into the grid. Sandia’s software will bring a new, probability-based formulation to account for these uncertainties. By factoring in various probability scenarios for electricity production from renewable energy sources in real time, Sandia’s formula can reduce the risk of inefficient electricity transmission, save ratepayers money, conserve power, and support the future use of renewable energy.

  19. Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beersma, Jules

    Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Jules Beersma #12;Promotor: Prof. dr. A Onderzoekschool (BBOS) #12;Extreme hydro-meteorological events and their probabilities Extreme hydro

  20. The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? The 60% Efficient Diesel Engine: Probably, Possible, Or Just a Fantasy? 2005 Diesel Engine Emissions...

  1. Future of the Lakes Scenarios for the Future of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    about what to do today. We try to anticipate the future when making decisions, but plans are always as a type of war game analysis. Scenario planning later became a part of business planning. The oil company Royal Dutch/Shell further developed scenario planning, which played a role in that company's success

  2. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  3. Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in China using data from a wideLBNL-2416E Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China Nan Zhou*, Masaru Nishida

  4. Environmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    been assessed with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies [1], [2], [3] and [4]. However environmentalEnvironmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment Touria Larbi1 impacts assessment of scenarios is very rarely evaluated through a life cycle perspective partly because

  5. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  6. Law of total probability Sequences of events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adler, Robert J.

    {Second black} = P{Second red} and sum is 1! 3 #12;' & $ % Example 2: Poisonned chocolates · k chocolates in a box of N are poisoned. 2 chocolates are are drawn at random. What is the probability that the second chocolate is poisoned? P{2nd poison} = P{2nd poison|1st poison}P{1st poison} + P{2nd poison|1st OK}P{1st OK

  7. SCFG in CNF Probability distribution over

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ageno, Alicia

    : - += Ă?Ă?= rq, 1k 1ij rq,p,rqp Bk)(j,Ij)(i,Ik)(i,I #12;SCFG in CNF Outside probability : Op(i,j) = P(A1 * w1(j,k) Ă? Ii(j,k) = P(A1 * w1 ... wn, Ai * wj+1 ... wk |G ) = P(w1n , Ai jk |G) NLP statistical parsing 54 So

  8. Optimum phase space probabilities from quantum tomography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roy, Arunabha S., E-mail: roy.arunabha@gmail.com [King's College, London (United Kingdom); Roy, S. M., E-mail: smroy@hbcse.tifr.res.in [HBCSE, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai (India)

    2014-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We determine a positive normalised phase space probability distribution P with minimum mean square fractional deviation from the Wigner distribution W. The minimum deviation, an invariant under phase space rotations, is a quantitative measure of the quantumness of the state. The positive distribution closest to W will be useful in quantum mechanics and in time frequency analysis. The position-momentum correlations given by the distribution can be tested experimentally in quantum optics.

  9. Free Energy Changes, Fluctuations, and Path Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William G. Hoover; Carol G. Hoover

    2011-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

    We illustrate some of the static and dynamic relations discovered by Cohen, Crooks, Evans, Jarzynski, Kirkwood, Morriss, Searles, and Zwanzig. These relations link nonequilibrium processes to equilibrium isothermal free energy changes and to dynamical path probabilities. We include ideas suggested by Dellago, Geissler, Oberhofer, and Schoell-Paschinger. Our treatment is intended to be pedagogical, for use in an updated version of our book: Time Reversibility, Computer Simulation, and Chaos. Comments are very welcome.

  10. Pion-capture probabilities in organic molecules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, D.F.; Lewis, C.A.; O'Leary, K.

    1982-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Experimental results are presented for atomic-capture probabilities of negative pions in organic molecules. The data are analyzed in terms of atomic and molecular models. This analysis shows that the Fermi-Teller law (Z law) and its modifications do not give an adequate description of the data, but that a mesomolecular model together with hydrogen transfer contains the features essential to fit the data. Clear evidence is given for chemical effects in the pion-capture process.

  11. A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    worldwide to look at energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (Carter et al., 2000). By developing energy use trends. The approach taken here was based on hypothetical lifestyle analyses, and askedA lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings

  12. A lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diamond, Richard

    economic and population growth worldwide to look at energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (Carter or national models to forecast energy use trends. The approach taken here was based on hypothetical lifestyleA lifestyle-based scenario, Energy Policy A lifestyle-based scenario for U.S. buildings

  13. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03T23:59:59.000Z

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  14. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  15. Spin Glass Computations and Ruelle's Probability Cascades

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Louis-Pierre Arguin

    2006-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the Parisi functional, appearing in the Parisi formula for the pressure of the SK model, as a functional on Ruelle's Probability Cascades (RPC). Computation techniques for the RPC formulation of the functional are developed. They are used to derive continuity and monotonicity properties of the functional retrieving a theorem of Guerra. We also detail the connection between the Aizenman-Sims-Starr variational principle and the Parisi formula. As a final application of the techniques, we rederive the Almeida-Thouless line in the spirit of Toninelli but relying on the RPC structure.

  16. Snell Envelope with Small Probability Criteria

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Del Moral, Pierre, E-mail: Pierre.Del-Moral@inria.fr; Hu, Peng, E-mail: Peng.Hu@inria.fr [Universite de Bordeaux I, Centre INRIA Bordeaux et Sud-Ouest and Institut de Mathematiques de Bordeaux (France); Oudjane, Nadia, E-mail: Nadia.Oudjane@edf.fr [EDF R and D Clamart (France)

    2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a new algorithm to compute the Snell envelope in the specific case where the criteria to optimize is associated with a small probability or a rare event. This new approach combines the Stochastic Mesh approach of Broadie and Glasserman with a particle approximation scheme based on a specific change of measure designed to concentrate the computational effort in regions pointed out by the criteria. The theoretical analysis of this new algorithm provides non asymptotic convergence estimates. Finally, the numerical tests confirm the practical interest of this approach.

  17. Sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kleibrink, Ronald Gus

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . APPENDIX REFERENCES 29 iv LIST OF TABLES TABLE NO. PAGE Selection of n=4 from a Population of N=9 units Cumulative sizes, selection probabilities and y/x ratios for th N=9 samples from the Population of N=9 blocks Permutations for N=4 items Rand.... om permutati. ons for N=8 items Rand. om permutations for N=12 items 18 20 Number of applications of operations for N=9 24 Neans and correlations of three Populations considered 30 Var iances of estimates for Populations N=9, 13, 2...

  18. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  19. Bayesian derivation of plasma equilibrium distribution function for tokamak scenarios and the associated Landau collision operator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Di Troia, Claudio

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A class of parametric distribution functions has been proposed in [C.DiTroia, Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion,54,2012] as equilibrium distribution functions (EDFs) for charged particles in fusion plasmas, representing supra-thermal particles in anisotropic equilibria for Neutral Beam Injection, Ion Cyclotron Heating scenarios. Moreover, the EDFs can also represent nearly isotropic equilibria for Slowing-Down $alpha$ particles and core thermal plasma populations. These EDFs depend on constants of motion (COMs). Assuming an axisymmetric system with no equilibrium electric field, the EDF depends on the toroidal canonical momentum $P_\\phi$, the kinetic energy $w$ and the magnetic moment \\mu. In the present work, the EDFs are obtained from first principles and general hypothesis. The derivation is probabilistic and makes use of the Bayes' Theorem. The bayesian argument allows us to describe how far from the prior probability distribution function (pdf), e.g. Maxwellian, the plasma is, based on the information...

  20. Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey

    We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic ...

  1. How to Identify leading indicators for scenario monitoring

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Xia, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Being able to quickly adapt to changes in the business environment has been widely acknowledged as essential for sustainable success by business leaders. Scenario planning is recognized as an effective tool used to explore ...

  2. H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Marianne Mintz and Jerry Gillette DOE Hydrogen Delivery Analysis and High Pressure Tanks R&D Project Review Meeting February 8, 2005 2...

  3. Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

  4. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    DOENNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

  5. Integrated Scenario-based Design Methodology for Collaborative Technology Innovation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Integrated Scenario-based Design Methodology for Collaborative Technology Innovation Fabrice Forest information technology innovation with an end-to-end Human and Social Sciences assistance. This methodology Technological innovation often requires large scale collaborative partnership between many heterogeneous

  6. astrophysical scenarios pushing: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for an Astrophysical Scenario Astrophysics (arXiv) Summary: In some models of gamma-ray bursts super-strong electric fields (Esim 1014 rm statvolt cm-1) have...

  7. Modeling Combustion in Current Candidate Scenarios for Thermonuclear...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Combustion in Current Candidate Scenarios for Thermonuclear Supernovae Mar 26 2015 03:00 PM - 04:00 PM Dean M. Townsley, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa Physics Division...

  8. Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Riddle, Austin Christopher

    2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Correlation Elements...................................31 Figure 9: Scenario Oracle Interface .................................................................................34 Figure 10: Command Archive Manager Execution...........................................................................................17 Table 2: Demographic Survey Results (Abridged) ..........................................................47 Table 3: Questionnaire Results ........................................................................................48 Table 4...

  9. SCENARIOS TO EVALUATE LONG TERM WILDFIRE RISK IN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SCENARIOS TO EVALUATE LONG TERM WILDFIRE RISK IN CALIFORNIA: New the California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center JULY 2012 CEC5002012030 Prepared for: California Energy Commission Prepared by: Pardee RAND Graduate School University of California, Merced

  10. Mock scenarios prepare linemen for emergencies in the field

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    was taking in air through the wound. When this happens, air puts extra pressure on the lungs, and the lung can collapse. It's a life threatening scenario, but the Kalispell crew...

  11. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budnitz, R.J. [Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, P.R. [PRD Consulting (United States); Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H. [EQE International, Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)

    1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

  12. Unbounded entanglement can be needed to achieve the optimal success probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laura Man?inska; Thomas Vidick

    2014-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantum entanglement is known to provide a strong advantage in many two-party distributed tasks. We investigate the question of how much entanglement is needed to reach optimal performance. For the first time we show that there exists a purely classical scenario for which no finite amount of entanglement suffices. To this end we introduce a simple two-party nonlocal game $H$, inspired by Lucien Hardy's paradox. In our game each player has only two possible questions and can provide bit strings of any finite length as answer. We exhibit a sequence of strategies which use entangled states in increasing dimension $d$ and succeed with probability $1-O(d^{-c})$ for some $c\\geq 0.13$. On the other hand, we show that any strategy using an entangled state of local dimension $d$ has success probability at most $1-\\Omega(d^{-2})$. In addition, we show that any strategy restricted to producing answers in a set of cardinality at most $d$ has success probability at most $1-\\Omega(d^{-2})$. Finally, we generalize our construction to derive similar results starting from any game $G$ with two questions per player and finite answers sets in which quantum strategies have an advantage.

  13. Some Considerations on the Probability of Nuclear Fission

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vandenbosch, Robert; Seaborg, Glenn T.

    1957-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    om THE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION Robert Vandenbosch andON TRE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR FISSION O E Contents Abstractf is the fission threshold, and the nuclear temperature T is

  14. A Framework for Verification of Software with Time and Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oxford, University of

    verification techniques are able to establish sys- tem properties such as "the probability of an airbag failing quantitative properties. These might include, for example, "the probability of an airbag failing to deploy

  15. On Transformations between Probability and Spohnian Disbelief Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giang, Phan H.; Shenoy, Prakash P.

    1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we analyze the relationship between probability and Spohn's theory for representation of uncertain beliefs. Using the intuitive idea that the more probable a proposition is, the more believable it is, we ...

  16. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

    1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

  17. Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios Presentation on Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios given by David Greene...

  18. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  19. Creative use of scenarios. Final report, September 1986-April 1987

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tritten, J.J.

    1987-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Surprise and the Single Scenarios is the title of an article by Sir James Cable. The essence of his thesis is that the United Kingdom should not prepare its military with just one contingency in mind. Related theses have been debated for many years; should Soviet military strategy be based upon the doctrinal assumption of quick escalation to nuclear war. Should U.S. nuclear forces be procured with the requirement to survive a well-executed surprise first strike. In considering these and related political-military questions, scenarios are often created to flesh out the concept being considered. For example, military planners in the USSR undoubtedly use alternating scenarios to consider possible courses that armed conflict could take in order that they might assess the impact of short- or long-time scales on nuclear/conventional interactions. Similarly, varying scenarios are used in the U.S. to demonstrate the impact of different threat assumptions on the amount and types of nuclear forces that the U.S. should buy that would guarantee an acceptable level of retaliation. The major point to all this, and this report, is that in order to perform complex political military assessments, political scientists either explicitly or implicitly use operations analysis techniques, including simulations, gaming and scenarios.

  20. Practical Statistical Thinking Probability: The Language of Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Practical Statistical Thinking Probability: The Language of Statistics Essentials of Statistics and Probability Dhruv Sharma May 22, 2007 Department of Statistics, NC State University dbsharma@ncsu.edu SAMSI Undergrad Workshop Dhruv Sharma Essentials of Statistics and Probability #12;Practical Statistical Thinking

  1. Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Don

    Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1.1 Introduction Definition. Statistics based on probability theory. This chapter introduces the basic concepts of probability and statistics by answering questions like: · what are the branches of statistics · what are data · how are samples selected 1

  2. Path-transformations in probability and representation theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jordan, Jonathan

    Path-transformations in probability and representation theory Neil O'Connell University of Warwick Biane and Philippe Bougerol Neil O'Connell Path-transforms in probability and rep. theory #12;Pitman is a three-dimensional Bessel process. Neil O'Connell Path-transforms in probability and rep. theory #12;The

  3. Sandia National Laboratories: electricity outage

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Microgrid, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Renewable Energy, SMART Grid, Systems Analysis, Systems Engineering Mayor Says New System Will 'Keep Everyone...

  4. Refinery Outages: First Half 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghurajiConventionalMississippi"site.1 Relative Standard Errors for TableCORPORATION /Product:First

  5. outages | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnualProperty Edit withTianlinPapersWindey Wind Home Rmckeel'slinked openreduction+oceanoutages Home

  6. Refinery Outages: First Half 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghuraji Agro IndustriesTownDells,1Stocks Nov-14 Dec-14Table 4.April 25, 20137a.06 2.013

  7. OpenEI Community - outages

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcernsCompany Oil and GasOff<div/0 en

  8. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Systems Analysis 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure...

  9. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis...

  10. COMPENG 2010: Complexity in Engineering, Rome Italy, February 2010 c IEEE 2010 Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated by OPA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dobson, Ian

    and mitigated. The electric power infrastructure is vital in maintaining our so- ciety, and maintaining high reliability is especially impor- tant as the electric power infrastructure is being transformed in response and the probability distribution of load shed in simulated blackouts of an electric power system. The average

  11. A Detector Scenario for the MuonCollider Cooling Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    : Meson Lab at Fermilab: Power Supplies (two floors) Cooling Apparatus Muon Beamline shielding shieldingA Detector Scenario for the Muon­Collider Cooling Experiment C. Lu, K.T. McDonald and E.J. Prebys the emittance of the muon beam to 3% accuracy before and after the muon cooling apparatus. 1 #12; Possible site

  12. Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politčcnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    Circuit Area Optimization in Energy Temporal Sparse Scenarios for Multiple Harvester Powered.alarcon@upc.edu Abstract--Multi-source energy harvesters are gaining interest as a robust alternative to power wireless sensors, since the sensor node can maintain its operation regardless of the fact that one of its energy

  13. Three Investment Scenarios for Future Nuclear Reactors in Europe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Three Investment Scenarios for Future Nuclear Reactors in Europe Bianka SHOAI TEHRANI CEA nuclear reactors within a few decades (2040), several events and drivers could question this possibility or detrimental to future nuclear reactors compared with other technologies and according to four main investment

  14. FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Salamon, Peter

    CHAPTER 1 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING A SCENARIO AND PERPETUAL MOTION MACHINES OF THE THIRD KIND Peter to a notion of staging free energy: the free energy invested in choreographing all the actors of a biochemical \\offprintinfo{(Title, Edition)}{(Author)} at the beginning of your document. 1 #12;2 FREE ENERGIES OF STAGING

  15. Animations of Medical Training Scenarios in Immersive Virtual Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Animations of Medical Training Scenarios in Immersive Virtual Environments Ivelina V. Alexandrova-line me- dia applications using Virtual Humans (VHs) 1 http://www.meti.com/ 3 http to express emotions, and syn- chronized body and facial animations, including human-like gaze behavior

  16. Phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Muenchen (Germany)] [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Muenchen (Germany); Das, Subinoy, E-mail: antusch@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: subinoy@nyu.edu, E-mail: koushik@mppmu.mpg.de [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003 (United States)] [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2008-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy, where in addition to a so-called mass-varying neutrino (MaVaN) sector a cosmological constant (from a false vacuum) is driving the accelerated expansion of the universe today. For general power law potentials we calculate the effective equation of state parameter w{sub eff}(z) in terms of the neutrino mass scale. Due to the interaction of the dark energy field ('acceleron') with the neutrino sector, w{sub eff}(z) is predicted to become smaller than -1 for z>0, which could be tested in future cosmological observations. For the scenarios considered, the neutrino mass scale additionally determines which fraction of the dark energy is dynamical, and which originates from the 'cosmological-constant-like' vacuum energy of the false vacuum. On the other hand, the field value of the 'acceleron' field today as well as the masses of the right-handed neutrinos, which appear in the seesaw-type mechanism for small neutrino masses, are not fixed. This, in principle, allows us to realize hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy with a 'high-scale' seesaw where the right-handed neutrino masses are close to the GUT scale. We also comment on how MaVaN hybrid scenarios with 'high-scale' seesaw might help to resolve stability problems of dark energy models with non-relativistic neutrinos.

  17. Worst Case Scenario for Large Distribution Networks with Distributed Generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pota, Himanshu Roy

    Worst Case Scenario for Large Distribution Networks with Distributed Generation M. A. Mahmud) in distri- bution network has significant effects on voltage profile for both customers and distribution on variation of the voltage and the amount of DG that can be connected to the distribution networks. This paper

  18. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO REGION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO REGION A White Paper from the California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center JULY 2012 CEC5002012042 Prepared for: California possible changes in regional climate over California. To accomplish this, the model simulations were

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR CALIFORNIA VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT A White Paper from the California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center This white paper provides an evaluation of physical elements of climate change and sea level rise

  20. Implementation of a Scenario-based MPC for HVAC Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Implementation of a Scenario-based MPC for HVAC Systems: an Experimental Case Study Alessandra, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems play a fundamental role in maintaining acceptable thermal energy savings potential. Developing effective MPC-based control strategies for HVAC systems

  1. Evaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Subtask 2.1 Report By the University of Hawaii Hawaii Natural Energy Institute School of Ocean and EarthEvaluation of Future Energy Technology Deployment Scenarios for the Big Island Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Under Award No. DE-FC-06NT42847

  2. The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pilch, M.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yan, H.; Theofanous, T.G. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is the first step in the resolution of the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) issue for the Zion Nuclear Power Plant using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). This report includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO{sub 2} mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but our quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, we also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and ``splintering.`` Two causal relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the Convection Limited Containment Heating (CLCH) model and the Two-Cell Equilibrium (TCE) model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive database including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength (fragility) curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10{sup {minus}3} for all scenarios considered. Sensitivity analyses did not show any areas of large sensitivity.

  3. Initial Low Recycling Improving Confinement and Current Drive in Advanced Tokamak (AT) and Hybrid Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Initial Low Recycling Improving Confinement and Current Drive in Advanced Tokamak (AT) and Hybrid Scenarios

  4. Tungsten Transport in JET H-mode Plasmas in Hybrid Scenario, Experimental Observations and Modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tungsten Transport in JET H-mode Plasmas in Hybrid Scenario, Experimental Observations and Modelling

  5. Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, E J; Budny, R V; DeBoo, J C; Ferron, J R; Jackson, G L; Luce, T C; Murakami, M; Osborne, T H; Park, J; Politzer, P A; Reimerdes, H; Casper, T A; Challis, C D; Groebner, R J; Holcomb, C T; Hyatt, A W; La Haye, R J; McKee, G R; Petrie, T W; Petty, C C; Rhodes, T L; Shafer, M W; Snyder, P B; Strait, E J; Wade, M R; Wang, G; West, W P; Zeng, L

    2008-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for {beta}{sub N} and H{sub 98}, have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of {ge} 400 MW of fusion power production and Q {ge} 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification.

  6. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  7. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wei, Max

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall ScenarioElectricity Sector Conditions Assumed for Electricity Sector and Building

  8. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 2, Part 3: Internal Events Appendices I and J

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitehead, D.; Staple, B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probablistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143.

  9. HEITSCH, R OMISCH --GENERATION OF MULTIVARIATE SCENARIO TREES TO MODEL STOCHASTICITY IN POWER MANAGEMENT 1 Generation of Multivariate Scenario Trees to Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    MANAGEMENT 1 Generation of Multivariate Scenario Trees to Model Stochasticity in Power Management Holger data of EDF Electricit´e de France. Index Terms-- Stochastic programming, power management, scenarioHEITSCH, R ¨OMISCH -- GENERATION OF MULTIVARIATE SCENARIO TREES TO MODEL STOCHASTICITY IN POWER

  10. Reasonable conditions for joint probabilities of non-commuting observables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holger F. Hofmann

    2014-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    In the operator formalism of quantum mechanics, the density operator describes the complete statistics of a quantum state in terms of d^2 independent elements, where d is the number of possible outcomes for a precise measurement of an observable. In principle, it is therefore possible to express the density operator by a joint probability of two observables that cannot actually be measured jointly because they do not have any common eigenstates. However, such joint probabilities do not refer to an actual measurement outcome, so their definition cannot be based on a set of possible events. Here, I consider the criteria that could specify a unique mathematical form of joint probabilities in the quantum formalism. It is shown that a reasonable set of conditions results in the definition of joint probabilities by ordered products of the corresponding projection operators. It is pointed out that this joint probability corresponds to the quasi probabilities that have recently been observed experimentally in weak measurements.

  11. MAS 108 Probability I Test 11 November 2005, 16101655

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, R. A.

    ) For which values of p are they more likely to have 2 boys than 3 boys? 3 #12;4 (15 marks) A fish is caught at random on the Great Barrier Reef. The probability that the fish is striped is 7/20; the probability that the fish is luminous is 1/5; and the probability that the fish is both striped and luminuous is 1/20. Find

  12. Origin of probabilities and their application to the multiverse

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Albrecht, Andreas

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We comment on the general implications of this view, and specifically question the application of classical probability theory to cosmology in cases where key questions are known to have no quantum answer.

  13. The Decay of Accreting Triple Systems as Brown Dwarf Formation Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefan Umbreit; Andreas Burkert; Thomas Henning; Seppo Mikkola; Rainer Spurzem

    2005-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the dynamical decay of non-hierarchical accreting triple systems and its implications on the ejection model as Brown Dwarf formation scenario. A modified chain-regularization scheme is used to integrate the equations of motion, that also allows for mass changes over time as well as for momentum transfer from the accreted gas mass onto the bodies. We integrate an ensemble of triple systems within a certain volume with different accretion rates, assuming several prescriptions of how momentum is transferred onto the bodies. We follow their evolution until the systems have decayed. We analyze the end states and decay times of these systems and determine the fraction of Brown Dwarfs formed, their escape speeds as well as the semi-major axis distribution of the formed Brown Dwarf binaries. We find that the formation probability of Brown Dwarfs depends strongly on the assumed momentum transfer which is related to the motion of the gas. Due to ongoing accretion and consequent shrinkage of the systems, the median escape velocity is increased by a factor of 2 and the binary separations are decreased by a factor of 5 compared with non-accreting systems. Furthermore, the obtained semi-major axis distribution drops off sharply to either side of the median, which is also supported by observations. We conclude that accretion and momentum transfer of accreted gas during the dynamical decay of triple systems is able to produce the observed distribution of close binary Brown Dwarfs, making the ejection model a viable option as Brown Dwarf formation scenario.

  14. New probability table treatment in MCNP for unresolved resonances

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carter, L.L. [Carter M.C. Analysis, Richland, WA (United States); Little, R.C.; Hendricks, J.S.; MacFarlane, R.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An upgrade for MCNP has been implemented to sample the neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range using probability tables. These probability tables are generated with the cross section processor code NJOY, by using the evaluated statistical information about the resonances to calculate cumulative probability distribution functions for the microscopic total cross section. The elastic, fission, and radiative capture cross sections are also tabulated as the average values of each of these partials conditional upon the value of the total. This paper summarizes how the probability tables are utilized in this MCNP upgrade and compares this treatment with the approximate smooth treatment for some example problems.

  15. Finite n Largest Eigenvalue Probability Distribution Function of Gaussian Ensembles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leonard N. Choup

    2011-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we focus on the finite n probability distribution function of the largest eigenvalue in the classical Gaussian Ensemble of n by n matrices (GEn). We derive the finite n largest eigenvalue probability distribution function for the Gaussian Orthogonal and Symplectic Ensembles and also prove an Edgeworth type Theorem for the largest eigenvalue probability distribution function of Gaussian Symplectic Ensemble. The correction terms to the limiting probability distribution are expressed in terms of the same Painleve II functions appearing in the Tracy-Widom distribution.

  16. Sensible Quantum Mechanics: Are Probabilities only in the Mind?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Don N. Page

    1995-07-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantum mechanics may be formulated as {\\it Sensible Quantum Mechanics} (SQM) so that it contains nothing probabilistic except conscious perceptions. Sets of these perceptions can be deterministically realized with measures given by expectation values of positive-operator-valued {\\it awareness operators}. Ratios of the measures for these sets of perceptions can be interpreted as frequency-type probabilities for many actually existing sets. These probabilities generally cannot be given by the ordinary quantum ``probabilities'' for a single set of alternatives. {\\it Probabilism}, or ascribing probabilities to unconscious aspects of the world, may be seen to be an {\\it aesthemamorphic myth}.

  17. Oscillations in probability distributions for stochastic gene expression

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petrosyan, K. G., E-mail: pkaren@phys.sinica.edu.tw; Hu, Chin-Kun, E-mail: huck@phys.sinica.edu.tw [Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei 11529, Taiwan (China)

    2014-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The phenomenon of oscillations in probability distribution functions of number of components is found for a model of stochastic gene expression. It takes place in cases of low levels of molecules or strong intracellular noise. The oscillations distinguish between more probable even and less probable odd number of particles. The even-odd symmetry restores as the number of molecules increases with the probability distribution function tending to Poisson distribution. We discuss the possibility of observation of the phenomenon in gene, protein, and mRNA expression experiments.

  18. A collision probability analysis of the double-heterogeneity problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hebert, A. (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique, Yvette (France))

    1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A practical collision probability model is presented for the description of geometries with many levels of heterogeneity. Regular regions of the macrogeometry are assumed to contain a stochastic mixture of spherical grains or cylindrical tubes. Simple expressions for the collision probabilities in the global geometry are obtained as a function of the collision probabilities in the macro- and microgeometries. This model was successfully implemented in the collision probability kernel of the APOLLO-1, APOLLO-2, and DRAGON lattice codes for the description of a broad range of reactor physics problems. Resonance self-shielding and depletion calculations in the microgeometries are possible because each microregion is explicitly represented.

  19. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arai, Masato [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Horska 3a/22, 128 00 Prague 2 (Czech Republic); Kawai, Shinsuke [Institute for the Early Universe (IEU), 11-1 Daehyun-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 120-750 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 440-746 (Korea, Republic of); Okada, Nobuchika [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  20. Inflation scenario via the Standard Model Higgs boson and LHC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. O. Barvinsky; A. Yu. Kamenshchik; A. A. Starobinsky

    2008-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider a quantum corrected inflation scenario driven by a generic GUT or Standard Model type particle model whose scalar field playing the role of an inflaton has a strong non-minimal coupling to gravity. We show that currently widely accepted bounds on the Higgs mass falsify the suggestion of the paper arXiv:0710.3755 (where the role of radiative corrections was underestimated) that the Standard Model Higgs boson can serve as the inflaton. However, if the Higgs mass could be raised to $\\sim 230$ GeV, then the Standard Model could generate an inflationary scenario with the spectral index of the primordial perturbation spectrum $n_s\\simeq 0.935$ (barely matching present observational data) and the very low tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r\\simeq 0.0006$.

  1. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  2. Non-Gaussianity from false vacuum inflation: Old curvaton scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jinn-Ouk Gong; Chunshan Lin; Yi Wang

    2010-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    We calculate the three-point correlation function of the comoving curvature perturbation generated during an inflationary epoch driven by false vacuum energy. We get a novel false vacuum shape bispectrum, which peaks in the equilateral limit. Using this result, we propose a scenario which we call "old curvaton". The shape of the resulting bispectrum lies between the local and the false vacuum shapes. In addition we have a large running of the spectral index.

  3. Non-Gaussianity from false vacuum inflation: old curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gong, Jinn-Ouk [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Universiteit Leiden, Niels Bohrweg 2, 2333 CA Leiden (Netherlands); Lin, Chunshan [Interdisciplinary Center of Theoretical Studies, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Wang, Yi, E-mail: jgong@lorentz.leidenuniv.nl, E-mail: lics@mail.ustc.edu.cn, E-mail: wangyi@hep.physics.mcgill.ca [Department of Physics, McGill University, Montréal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We calculate the three-point correlation function of the comoving curvature perturbation generated during an inflationary epoch driven by false vacuum energy. We get a novel false vacuum shape bispectrum, which peaks in the equilateral limit. Using this result, we propose a scenario which we call ''old curvaton''. The shape of the resulting bispectrum lies between the local and the false vacuum shapes. In addition we have a large running of the spectral index.

  4. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gianmassimo Tasinato

    2015-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  5. Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. Acacio de Barros

    2013-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.

  6. Revised Transition Probabilities for Fe XXV Relativistic CI Calculations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Walter R.

    Revised Transition Probabilities for Fe XXV Relativistic CI Calculations W. R. Johnson1 and U are provided for transition probabilities between fine-structure components of levels with n 6 in FeXXV. Earlier published data for transitions between fine-structure levels in FeXXV is found to in error

  7. Announced Dynamic Access Probability protocol for next generation wireless networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levy, Hanoch

    Announced Dynamic Access Probability protocol for next generation wireless networks Z. NAOR #3; H probability. Keywords: wireless networks, multiple access, MAC #3; naorz@post.tau.ac.il y hanoch@cs.tau.ac.il 1 #12; 1 Introduction Wireless networks are rapidly expanding. Future satellite-based networks

  8. SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN RANK-ONE PERTURBATION PROBLEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poltoratski, Alexei

    SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN RANK-ONE PERTURBATION PROBLEMS with changing boundary condition. The general question of perturbation theory can be stated as follows the effect of rank-one perturbations on the asymptotics of the so-called survival probability. This notion

  9. IS THERE A DUTCH BOOK ARGUMENT FOR PROBABILITY KINEMATICS?*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Armendt, Brad

    ( A / Ei) PROB( Ei) ). So if (1) holds and (2) is violated, PROB will be incoherent and open to a Dutch probability kinematics will leave the agent open to a Dutch Book. Paul Teller (1973) has reported David Lewis violations of probability kinematics leave an agent open to a Dutch Book under assumptions little different

  10. Probability distributions of land surface wind speeds over North America

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Aiguo

    . Jones, A. Dai, S. Biner, D. Caya, and K. Winger (2010), Probability distributions of land surface wind distribution used for estimation of wind climate and annual winProbability distributions of land surface wind speeds over North America Yanping He,1 Adam Hugh

  11. MA 747, Spring 2012 Probability and Stochastic Process II

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ito, Kazufumi

    MA 747, Spring 2012 Probability and Stochastic Process II Lecture Notes and Reference book The course will be based on the lecture notes and the reference book: Stochastic Processes, S.R.S. Varadhan theory needed for advanced applications in stochastic processes. It provides the basic probability theory

  12. PROBCON-HDW: A probability and consequence system of codes for long-term analysis of Hanford defense wastes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piepho, M.G.; Nguyen, T.H.

    1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The PROBCON-HDW (PROBability and CONsequence analysis for Hanford defense waste) computer code system calculates the long-term cumulative releases of radionuclides from the Hanford defense wastes (HDW) to the accessible environment and compares the releases to environmental release limits as defined in 40 CFR 191. PROBCON-HDW takes into account the variability of input parameter values used in models to calculate HDW release and transport in the vadose zone to the accessible environment (taken here as groundwater). A human intrusion scenario, which consists of drilling boreholes into the waste beneath the waste sites and bringing waste to the surface, is also included in PROBCON-HDW. PROBCON-HDW also includes the capability to combine the cumulative releases according to various long-term (10,000 year) scenarios into a composite risk curve or complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). The system structure of the PROBCON-HDW codes, the mathematical models in PROBCON-HDW, the input files, the input formats, the command files, and the graphical output results of several HDW release scenarios are described in the report. 3 refs., 7 figs., 9 tabs.

  13. RUNNING HEAD: Balkanization of Probability Balkanization and Unification of Probabilistic Inferences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Alex

    RUNNING HEAD: Balkanization of Probability Balkanization and Unification of Probabilistic;Balkanization of Probability 2 Abstract Many research-related classes in social sciences present probability;Balkanization of Probability 3 Balkanization and Unification of Probabilistic Inferences Introduction Use

  14. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial sc

  15. Origin of probabilities and their application to the multiverse

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andreas Albrecht; Daniel Phillips

    2014-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

    We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We comment on the general implications of this view, and specifically question the application of classical probability theory to cosmology in cases where key questions are known to have no quantum answer. We argue that the ideas developed here may offer a way out of the notorious measure problems of eternal inflation.

  16. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate “High-Yield Scenario” (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  17. Modified GBIG Scenario as a Successful Alternative for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nozari, Kourosh

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.

  18. Modified GBIG Scenario as an Alternative for Dark Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kourosh Nozari; Narges Rashidi

    2009-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

    We construct a DGP-inspired braneworld model where induced gravity on the brane is modified in the spirit of $f(R)$ gravity and stringy effects are taken into account by incorporation of the Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk action. We explore cosmological dynamics of this model and we show that this scenario is a successful alternative for dark energy proposal. Interestingly, it realizes the phantom-like behavior without introduction of any phantom field on the brane and the effective equation of state parameter crosses the cosmological constant line naturally in the same way as observational data suggest.

  19. A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saugata Mitra; Subhajit Saha; Subenoy Chakraborty

    2015-03-25T23:59:59.000Z

    A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the frame work of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and modified Chaplygin gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated.

  20. A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitra, Saugata; Chakraborty, Subenoy

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the frame work of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and modified Chaplygin gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated.

  1. Using XDAQ in Application Scenarios of the CMS Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berti, L; Bruno, G; Cano, E; Csilling, A; Cittolin, Sergio; Drouhin, F; Erhan, S; Gigi, D; Glege, F; Gulmini, M; Gutleber, J; Jacobs, C; Kozlovskii, Miroslaw P; Larsen, H; Magrans, I; Maron, G; Meijers, F; Meschi, E; Mirabito, L; Murray, S; Dell, V O; Oh, A; Orsini, L; Pollet, L; Rácz, A; Samyn, D; Scharff-Hansen, P; Sphicas, Paris; Schwick, C; Suzuki, I; Toniolo, N; Ventura, Sandro; Zangrando, L

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    XDAQ is a generic data acquisition software environment that emerged from a rich set of of use-cases encountered in the CMS experiment. They cover not the deployment for multiple sub-detectors and the operation of different processing and networking equipment as well as a distributed collaboration of users with different needs. The use of the software in various application scenarios demonstrated the viability of the approach. We discuss two applications, the tracker local DAQ system for front-end commissioning and the muon chamber validation system. The description is completed by a brief overview of XDAQ.

  2. Using XDAQ in Application Scenarios of the CMS Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    L. Berti; V. Brigljevic; G. Bruno; E. Cano; A. Csilling; S. Cittolin; F. Drouhin; S. Erhan; D. Gigi; F. Glege; M. Gulmini; J. Gutleber; C. Jacobs; M. Kozlowski; H. Larsen; I. Magrans; G. Maron; F. Meijers; E. Meschi; L. Mirabito; S. Murray; V. O? Dell; A. Oh; L. Orsini; L. Pollet; A. Racz; D. Samyn; P. Scharff-Hansen; P. Sphicas; C. Schwick; I. Suzuki; N. Toniolo; S. Ventura; L. Zangrando

    2003-05-26T23:59:59.000Z

    XDAQ is a generic data acquisition software environment that emerged from a rich set of of use-cases encountered in the CMS experiment. They cover not the deployment for multiple sub-detectors and the operation of different processing and networking equipment as well as a distributed collaboration of users with different needs. The use of the software in various application scenarios demonstrated the viability of the approach. We discuss two applications, the tracker local DAQ system for front-end commissioning and the muon chamber validation system. The description is completed by a brief overview of XDAQ.

  3. Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOf KilaueaInformation Other4Q07) Wind FarmsourceScenarios Towards 2050

  4. Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are8COaBulkTransmissionSitingProcess.pdfGetec AG ContractingGreenOrder JumpIowa: Energy ResourcesInitiative Scenario

  5. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nicolosi, Marco

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Superpeaker OCGT CCGT Coal Nuclear Generation Capacities [generation options considered in THEA are nuclear, coal,Generation Share [%] Wind Low Wind Scenario High Wind Scenario Hydro Superpeaker OCGT CCGT Coal

  6. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario...

  7. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell...

  8. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

  9. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

  10. Review of Literature for Model Assisted Probability of Detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Ryan M.; Crawford, Susan L.; Lareau, John P.; Anderson, Michael T.

    2014-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This is a draft technical letter report for NRC client documenting a literature review of model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for potential application to nuclear power plant components for improvement of field NDE performance estimations.

  11. Beta-hypergeometric probability distribution on symmetric matrices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Beta-hypergeometric probability distribution on symmetric matrices A. Hassairi , M. Masmoudi, O. Regaig Sfax University Tunisia. Running title: Beta-hypergeometric distribution Abstract : Some remarkable properties of the beta distribution are based on relations in- volving independence between beta

  12. BayesDB : querying the probable implications of tabular data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baxter, Jay

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    BayesDB, a Bayesian database table, lets users query the probable implications of their tabular data as easily as an SQL database lets them query the data itself. Using the built-in Bayesian Query Language (BQL), users ...

  13. Objective Probability as a Guide to the World Michael Strevens

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strevens, Michael

    will find its way back to the egg in just the right form that the egg will be reconstituted, and will leap. If quantum mechanics is probabilistic then objective probabilities are everywhere. Even if quantum mechanics

  14. Inductive inference based on probability and Matthew Weber

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Osherson, Daniel

    Inductive inference based on probability and similarity Matthew Weber Princeton University Daniel in the Bayesian sense (Tentori et al., 2007), or as Weber acknowledges support from an NSF graduate research

  15. Net quark number probability distribution near the chiral crossover transition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kenji Morita; Bengt Friman; Krzysztof Redlich; Vladimir Skokov

    2013-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate properties of the probability distribution of the net quark number near the chiral crossover transition in the quark-meson model. The calculations are performed within the functional renormalization group approach, as well as in the mean-field approximation. We find, that there is a substantial influence of the underlying chiral phase transition on the properties of the probability distribution. In particular, for a physical pion mass, the distribution which includes the effect of mesonic fluctuations, differs considerably from both, the mean-field and Skellam distributions. The latter is considered as a reference for a non-critical behavior. A characteristic feature of the net quark number probability distribution is that, in the vicinity of the chiral crossover transition in the O(4) universality class, it is narrower than the corresponding mean-field and Skellam function. We study the volume dependence of the probability distribution, as well as the resulting cumulants, and discuss their approximate scaling properties.

  16. Supporting Scenario Evolution* Karin Koogan Breitman Julio Cesar Sampaio do Prado Leite Daniel M. Berry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berry, Daniel M.

    not to be applicable to the rest of the CBS development process. Making scenarios more useful for the entire software development lifecycle requires integration of scenarios to other representations used during CBS development development lifecycle creates the necessity to maintain scenarios through the inevitable changes

  17. Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman [Optimization, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia); Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when ?{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

  18. MTH 164 Practice Exam 4 -Probability Theory Spring 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garcia-Puente, Luis David

    ) black A) 2 3 B) 1 3 C) 2 5 D) 1 2 1) Find the probability. 2) A bag contains 6 red marbles, 3 blue marbles, and 1 green marble. What is the probability that a randomly selected marble is not blue? A) 7 10 has 22 students, 12 girls and 10 boys. Two students must be selected at random to be in the fall play

  19. Connection probability for random graphs with given degree sequence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xinping Xu

    2007-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Recently, the classical configuration model for random graphs with given degree distribution has been extensively used as a null model in contraposition to real networks with the same degree distribution. In this paper, we briefly review the applications of this model and derive analytical expression for connection probability by the expanding coefficient method. We also use our expanding coefficient method to obtain the connection probability for the directed configuration model.

  20. Semiclassical Approach to Survival Probability at Quantum Phase Transitions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wen-ge Wang; Pinquan Qin; Lewei He; Ping Wang

    2010-02-02T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the decay of survival probability at quantum phase transitions (QPT). The semiclassical theory is found applicable in the vicinities of critical points with infinite degeneracy. The theory predicts a power law decay of the survival probability for relatively long times in systems with d=1 and an exponential decay in systems with sufficiently large d, where d is the degrees of freedom of the underlying classical dynamics. The semiclassical predictions are checked numerically in four models.

  1. The resonance absorption probability function for neutron and multiplicative integral

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. D. Rusov; V. A. Tarasov; S. I. Kosenko; S. A. Chernegenko

    2012-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

    The analytical approximations for the moderating neutrons flux density like Fermi spectra, widely used in reactor physics, involve the probability function for moderating neutron to avoid the resonant absorption obtained using some restrictive assumptions regarding the acceptable resonances width. By means of multiplicative integral (Volterra integral) theory for a commutative algebra an analytical expression for the probability function is obtained rigorously without any restrictive assumptions.

  2. Isospin violating dark matter in Stückelberg portal scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victor Martin-Lozano; Miguel Peiro; Pablo Soler

    2015-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Hidden sector scenarios in which dark matter (DM) interacts with the Standard Model matter fields through the exchange of massive Z' bosons are well motivated by certain string theory constructions. In this work, we thoroughly study the phenomenological aspects of such scenarios and find that they present a clear and testable consequence for direct DM searches. We show that such string motivated St\\"uckelberg portals naturally lead to isospin violating interactions of DM particles with nuclei. We find that the relations between the DM coupling to neutrons and protons for both, spin-independent (fn/fp) and spin-dependent (an/ap) interactions, are very flexible depending on the charges of the quarks under the extra U(1) gauge groups. We show that within this construction these ratios are generically different from plus and minus 1 (i.e. different couplings to protons and neutrons) leading to a potentially measurable distinction from other popular portals. Finally, we incorporate bounds from searches for dijet and dilepton resonances at the LHC as well as LUX bounds on the elastic scattering of DM off nucleons to determine the experimentally allowed values of fn/fp and an/ap.

  3. Off-Shell Higgs Coupling Measurements in BSM scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christoph Englert; Yotam Soreq; Michael Spannowsky

    2014-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Proposals of measuring the off-shell Higgs contributions and first measurements at the LHC have electrified the Higgs phenomenology community for two reasons: Firstly, probing interactions at high invariant masses and momentum transfers is intrinsically sensitive to new physics beyond the Standard Model, irrespective of a resonant or non-resonant character of a particular BSM scenario. Secondly, under specific assumptions a class of models exists for which the off-shell coupling measurement together with a measurement of the on-shell signal strength can be re-interpreted in terms of a bound on the total Higgs boson width. In this paper, we provide a first step towards a classification of the models for which a total width measurement is viable and we discuss examples of BSM models for which the off-shell coupling measurement can be important in either constraining or even discovering new physics in the upcoming LHC runs. Specifically, we discuss the quantitative impact of the presence of dimension six operators on the (de)correlation of Higgs on- and off-shell regions keeping track of all interference effects. We furthermore investigate off-shell measurements in a wider context of new (non-)resonant physics in Higgs portal scenarios and the MSSM.

  4. Ultra High Energy Neutrino Signature in Top-Down Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberto Aloisio

    2006-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Neutrinos are the best candidates to test the extreme Universe and ideas beyond the Standard Model of particle Physics. Once produced, neutrinos do not suffer any kind of attenuation by intervening radiation fields like the Cosmic Microwave Background and are not affected by magnetic fields. In this sense neutrinos are useful messengers from the far and young Universe. In the present paper we will discuss a particular class of sources of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays introduced to explain the possible excess of events with energy larger than the Graisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin cut-off. These sources, collectively called top-down, share a common feature: UHE particles are produced in the decay or annihilation of superheavy, exotic, particles. As we will review in the present paper, the largest fraction of Ultra High Energy particles produced in the top-down scenario are neutrinos. The study of these radiation offers us a unique opportunity to test the exotic mechanisms of the top-down scenario.

  5. Self-assembly scenarios of patchy colloidal particles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Doppelbauer; E. G. Noya; E. Bianchi; G. Kahl

    2012-06-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid progress in precisely designing the surface decoration of patchy colloidal particles offers a new, yet unexperienced freedom to create building entities for larger, more complex structures in soft matter systems. However, it is extremely difficult to predict the large variety of ordered equilibrium structures that these particles are able to undergo under the variation of external parameters, such as temperature or pressure. Here we show that, by a novel combination of two theoretical tools, it is indeed possible to predict the self-assembly scenario of patchy colloidal particles: on one hand, a reliable and efficient optimization tool based on ideas of evolutionary algorithms helps to identify the ordered equilibrium structures to be expected at T = 0; on the other hand, suitable simulation techniques allow to estimate via free energy calculations the phase diagram at finite temperature. With these powerful approaches we are able to identify the broad variety of emerging self-assembly scenarios for spherical colloids decorated by four patches and we investigate and discuss the stability of the crystal structures on modifying in a controlled way the tetrahedral arrangement of the patches.

  6. Multiverse Scenarios in Cosmology: Classification, Cause, Challenge, Controversy, and Criticism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ruediger Vaas

    2010-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Multiverse scenarios in cosmology assume that other universes exist "beyond" our own universe. They are an exciting challenge both for empirical and theoretical research as well as for philosophy of science. They could be necessary to understand why the big bang occurred, why (some of) the laws of nature and the values of certain physical constants are the way they are, and why there is an arrow of time. This essay clarifies competing notions of "universe" and "multiverse"; it proposes a classification of different multiverse types according to various aspects how the universes are or are not separated from each other; it reviews the main reasons for assuming the existence of other universes: empirical evidence, theoretical explanation, and philosophical arguments; and, finally, it argues that some attempts to criticize multiverse scenarios as "unscientific", insisting on a narrow understanding of falsification, is neither appropriate nor convincing from a philosophy of science point of view. -- Keywords: big bang, universe, multiverse, cosmic inflation, time, quantum gravity, string theory, laws of nature, physical constants, fine-tuning, anthropic principle, philosophy of science, metaphysics, falsificationism

  7. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  8. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kodra, Evan A [ORNL; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K [ORNL; Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  9. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  10. The self-enrichment scenario in intermediate metallicity globular clusters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paolo Ventura; Francesca D'Antona

    2007-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    We present stellar yields computed from detailed models of intermediate mass asymptotic giant branch stars of low metallicity. In this work, the whole main microphysics inputs have been updated, and in particular alpha-enhancement is explicitly taken into account both in the opacities and equation of state. The target of this work is to provide a basis to test the reliability of the AGB self-enrichment scenario for Globular Clusters of intermediate metallicity. These Globular Clusters exhibit well defined abundance patterns, which have often been interpreted as a consequence of the pollution of the interstellar medium by the ejecta of massive AGBs. We calculated a grid of intermediate mass models with metallicity Z=0.001; the evolutionary sequences are followed from the pre-Main sequence along the whole AGB phase. We focus our attention on those elements largely studied in the spectroscopic investigations of Globular Clusters stars, i.e. oxygen, sodium, aluminum, magnesium and fluorine.} The predictions of our models show an encouraging agreement with the demand of the self-enrichment scenario for what concerns the abundances of oxygen, aluminum, fluorine and magnesium. The question of sodium is more tricky, due to the large uncertainties of the cross-sections of the Ne-Na cycle. The present results show that only a relatively small range of initial masses (M=5,6 solar masses) can be responsible for the self enrichment.

  11. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 2, Part 1C: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for plant operational State 5 during a refueling outage, Main report (Sections 11--14)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitehead, D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Darby, J. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yakle, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document contains the accident sequence analysis of internally initiated events for Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as it operates in the Low Power and Shutdown Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. The report documents the methodology used during the analysis, describes the results from the application of the methodology, and compares the results with the results from two full power analyses performed on Grand Gulf.

  12. Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS® computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some components heated up beyond their service temperatures, the staff determined that there would be no significant release as a result of the fire for the NAC LWT and similar casks.

  13. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duinker, Peter N. [School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Management, Dalhousie University, 6100 University Ave., Halifax, NS, B3H 3J5 (Canada)]. E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca; Greig, Lorne A. [ESSA Technologies Ltd., 77 Angelica Avenue, Richmond Hill, ON, L4S 2C9 (Canada)]. E-mail: lgreig@essa.com

    2007-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development.

  14. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1999-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

  15. Randall-Sundrum scenario with bulk dilaton and torsion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; Sen, Somasri; SenGupta, Soumitra [Regional Centre for Accelerator-based Particle Physics, Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad - 211 019 (India); Centre for Theoretical Physics, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110 025 (India); Department of Theoretical Physics, Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Kolkata - 700 032 (India)

    2009-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider a string-inspired torsion-dilaton-gravity action in a Randall-Sundrum braneworld scenario and show that, in an effective four-dimensional theory on the visible brane, the rank-2 antisymmetric Kalb-Ramond field (source of torsion) is exponentially suppressed. The result is similar to our earlier result in [B. Mukhopadhyaya, S. Sen, and S. SenGupta, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 121101 (2002); Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 259902(E) (2002)], where no dilaton was present in the bulk. This offers an explanation of the apparent invisibility of torsion in our space-time. However, in this case the trilinear couplings {approx}TeV{sup -1} between the dilaton and torsion may lead to new signals in TeV-scale experiments, bearing the stamp of extra warped dimensions.

  16. Phenomenological constraints on light mixed sneutrino WIMP scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Santa, Akiteru

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Scenarios where left- and right-handed sneutrinos mix and the lightest mixed one act as a thermal dark matter candidate can solve the dark matter, neutrino mass, and hierarchy problems simultaneously. We focus on the dark matter mass region of the order of 1 GeV, where dark matter direct detections are insensitive. We calculate the decay rate of a false vacuum induced by a large sneutrino trilinear coupling as well as other observables constrained by experiments. As a result, we show that there is an allowed region where the mass of the lightest neutralino is around 1 GeV. The allowed region can be tested by the search for the Higgs boson invisible decay at future colliders.

  17. Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.

  18. Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

    2003-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

    With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

  19. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  20. ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

    2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

  1. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  2. Some Applications of the Fractional Poisson Probability Distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nick Laskin

    2011-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Physical and mathematical applications of fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have discovered and developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers. Appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been applied to evaluate skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A new representation of Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been obtained. A representation of Schlafli polynomials in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. A new representations of Mittag-Leffler function involving fractional Bell polynomials and fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been discovered. Fractional Stirling numbers of the first kind have been introduced and studied. Two new polynomial sequences associated with fractional Poisson probability distribution have been launched and explored. The relationship between new polynomials and the orthogonal Charlier polynomials has also been investigated. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of quantum optics, the theory of combinatorial numbers and the theory of orthogonal polynomials of discrete variable.

  3. Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guyader, Arnaud, E-mail: arnaud.guyader@uhb.fr [Universite Rennes 2 (France); Hengartner, Nicolas [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Information Sciences Group (United States); Matzner-Lober, Eric [Universite Rennes 2 (France)

    2011-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

  4. Some Results in the Hyperinvariant Subspace Problem and Free Probability 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tucci Scuadroni, Gabriel H.

    2010-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

    [X]!C given by a(Xk) = ?(ak); k2N where C[X] denotes the set of complex polynomials in the indeterminate X. If A is a C -algebra, ? a state on A, and a = a , then by the Riesz representation theorem, a determines a probability measure on R which we will also... denote by a. That is, a is the unique compactly supported Borel probability measure on R which 4 satis es Z R tkd a(t) = ?(ak); k2N: The joint distribution of a family (ai)i2I of non-commutative random variables in (A;?) is the linear map (ai) : Ch...

  5. Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stauffer, William R.; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

    have identified probability distortions. The majority have 85   shown that monkeys are risk seeking for small rewards (McCoy and Platt, 2005; 86   O’Neill and Schultz, 2010; Kim et al., 2012; So and Stuphorn, 2012; Lak et al., 2014; 87... and magnitude (So 90   and Stuphorn, 2012; Raghuraman and Padoa-Schioppa, 2014), or by holding 91   probability constant and changing the magnitude (McCoy and Platt, 2005; Kim et al., 92   2012; Yamada et al., 2013; Lak et al., 2014; Stauffer et al., 2014...

  6. Kolmogorov Algorithmic Complexity and its Probability Interpretation in Quantum Gravity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. D. Dzhunushaliev

    1997-04-16T23:59:59.000Z

    The quantum gravity has great difficulties with application of the probability notion. In given article this problem is analyzed according to algorithmic viewpoint. According to A.N. Kolmogorov, the probability notion can be connected with algorithmic complexity of given object. The paper proposes an interpretation of quantum gravity, according to which an appearance of something corresponds to its Kolmogorov's algorithmic complexity. By this viewpoint the following questions are considered: the quantum transition with supplementary coordinates splitting off, the algorithmic complexity of the Schwarzschild black hole is estimated, the redefinition of the Feynman path integral, the quantum birth of the Euclidean Universe with the following changing of the metric signature.

  7. Surface spin flip probability of mesoscopic Ag wires.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mihajlovic, G.; Pearson, J. E.; Bader, S. D.; Hoffmann, A.

    2010-06-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Spin relaxation in mesoscopic Ag wires in the diffusive transport regime is studied via nonlocal spin valve and Hanle effect measurements performed on Permalloy/Ag lateral spin valves. The ratio between momentum and spin relaxation times is not constant at low temperatures. This can be explained with the Elliott-Yafet spin relaxation mechanism by considering the momentum surface relaxation time as being temperature dependent. We present a model to separately determine spin flip probabilities for phonon, impurity and surface scattering and find that the spin flip probability is highest for surface scattering.

  8. The Measure for the Multiverse and the Probability for Inflation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miao Li; Yi Wang

    2007-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the measure problem in the framework of inflationary cosmology. The measure of the history space is constructed and applied to inflation models. Using this measure, it is shown that the probability for the generalized single field slow roll inflation to last for $N$ e-folds is suppressed by a factor $\\exp(-3N)$, and the probability for the generalized $n$-field slow roll inflation is suppressed by a much larger factor $\\exp(-3nN)$. Some non-inflationary models such as the cyclic model do not suffer from this difficulty.

  9. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  10. The Annals of Probability 2007, Vol. 35, No. 1, 131

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seppäläinen, Timo

    operates as follows. An environment is chosen from the distribution P and fixed for all time. Pick probability distribution Pz(dX,d) = P z (dX)P(d) on walks and environments is called the joint annealed law IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT WITH A FORBIDDEN DIRECTION BY FIRAS RASSOUL-AGHA AND TIMO SEPPĂ?LĂ?INEN1 University

  11. Generic Degraded Congiguration Probability Analysis for DOE Codisposal Waste Package

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

    2001-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

    In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k{sub eff} in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package.

  12. STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR AUTOMATED EDDY CURRENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR AUTOMATED EDDY CURRENT NONDESTRUCTIVE for Nondestructive Evaluation, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA Abstract: Eddy current inspection is widely response collected using our motion controlled eddy current inspection system, are used in the analysis

  13. Local Privacy and Minimax Bounds: Sharp Rates for Probability Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jordan, Michael I.

    . Jordan1,2 Martin J. Wainwright1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2Local Privacy and Minimax Bounds: Sharp Rates for Probability Estimation John C. Duchi1 Michael I Department of Statistics University of California, Berkeley {jduchi

  14. Probability Distribution of Curvatures of Isosurfaces in Gaussian Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paulo R. S. Mendonca; Rahul Bhotika; James V. Miller

    2007-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    An expression for the joint probability distribution of the principal curvatures at an arbitrary point in the ensemble of isosurfaces defined on isotropic Gaussian random fields on Rn is derived. The result is obtained by deriving symmetry properties of the ensemble of second derivative matrices of isotropic Gaussian random fields akin to those of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble.

  15. On the probability and spatial distribution of ocean surface currents

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ashkenazy, Yossi "Yosef"

    Corresponding author address: Yosef Ashkenazy, Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, BIDR, Ben- GurionOn the probability and spatial distribution of ocean surface currents Yosef Ashkenazy Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, BIDR, Ben-Gurion University, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel Hezi Gildor The Fredy

  16. Word learning, phonological short-term memory, phonotactic probability and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Prahlad

    for thinking about various types of studies of word learning. We then review a number of themes that in recent as a useful organizing scheme for thinking about various types of studies of word learning. In §2, we reviewWord learning, phonological short-term memory, phonotactic probability and long-term memory

  17. Protein structure determination using a database of interatomic distance probabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phillips, George N. Jr.

    determination and molecular modeling. An energy function, or database potential, is derived from distributionsProtein structure determination using a database of interatomic distance probabilities MICHAEL E for Advanced Science and Technology and National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois

  18. BRIEF COMMUNICATIONS A probable spawning aggregation of the leather bass

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of herbivores that facilitate leather bass predation on benthic fishes and crustaceans (Montgomery, 1975). Of the 122 reef fish species in Revillagigedo recorded on scuba dives in February 2006, the leather bassBRIEF COMMUNICATIONS A probable spawning aggregation of the leather bass Dermatolepis dermatolepis

  19. Assignment 1, Probability and Distribution September 10, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shihada, Basem

    Assignment 1, Probability and Distribution September 10, 2011 Question 1 Exponential distribution is an important distribution in this course. We will be using it quite frequently in our future lectures. Suppose a non-negative real valued random variable X obeys an exponential distribution with parameter µ. That is

  20. Evaluating the small deviation probabilities for subordinated Levy processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Zhan

    Evaluating the small deviation probabilities for subordinated L´evy processes Werner Linde and Zhan and Linde [7]) that the small deviation problem for Z is equivalent to the problem of estimating the entropy recent progresses (Samorodnitsky [13], Simon [16]­[17], Ishikawa [3], Li and Linde [8], Lifshits

  1. Spin flip probability of electron in a uniform magnetic field

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hammond, Richard T. [Department of Physics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina and Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27703 (United States)

    2012-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The probability that an electromagnetic wave can flip the spin of an electron is calculated. It is assumed that the electron resides in a uniform magnetic field and interacts with an incoming electromagnetic pulse. The scattering matrix is constructed and the time needed to flip the spin is calculated.

  2. 1997 by M. Kostic Ch.4: Probability and Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kostic, Milivoje M.

    1 ©1997 by M. Kostic Ch.4: Probability and Statistics Variations due to: · Measurement System. ©1997 by M. Kostic Statistical Measurement Theory · Sample - a set of measured data · Measurand - measured variable · (True) mean value: (x') xmean #12;2 ©1997 by M. Kostic Mean Value and Uncertainty x

  3. Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Implications of Personal Probability for Induction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barrett, Jeffrey A.

    Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Implications of Personal Probability for Induction Author(s): Leonard J. Savage Source: The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 64, No. 19, Sixty-Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Philosophical Association, Eastern Division (Oct. 5, 1967), pp. 593-607 Published by: Journal of Philosophy, Inc

  4. Some applications of the fractional Poisson probability distribution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laskin, Nick [TopQuark Inc., Toronto, Ontario M6P 2P2 (Canada)

    2009-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Physical and mathematical applications of the recently invented fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers of the second kind. The appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been introduced and applied to evaluate the skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A representation of the Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of the quantum optics and the theory of combinatorial numbers.

  5. A converse Lyapunov theorem for asymptotic stability in probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hespanha, Joăo Pedro

    1 A converse Lyapunov theorem for asymptotic stability in probability A.R. Teel, J.P. Hespanha, A. Subbaraman Abstract A converse Lyapunov theorem is established for discrete-time stochastic systems with non implies the existence of a continuous Lyapunov function, smooth outside of the attractor, that decreases

  6. What does the 2°C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study—all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targets—show that the probability of exceeding the 2°C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  7. Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.

  8. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL] [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL] [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  9. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07T23:59:59.000Z

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.

  10. Deployment Scenario of Heavy Water Cooled Thorium Breeder Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mardiansah, Deby; Takaki, Naoyuki [Course of Applied Science, School of Engineering, Tokai University (Japan)

    2010-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Deployment scenario of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor has been studied. We have assumed to use plutonium and thorium oxide fuel in water cooled reactor to produce {sup 233}U which will be used in thorium breeder reactor. The objective is to analysis the potential of water cooled Th-Pu reactor for replacing all of current LWRs especially in Japan. In this paper, the standard Pressurize Water Reactor (PWR) has been designed to produce 3423 MWt; (i) Th-Pu PWR, (ii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR = 1.0) and (iii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR 1.2). The properties and performance of the core were investigated by using cell and core calculation code. Th-Pu PWR or HWR produces {sup 233}U to introduce thorium breeder reactor. The result showed that to replace all (60 GWe) LWR by thorium breeder reactor within a period of one century, Th-Pu oxide fueled PWR has insufficient capability to produce necessary amount of {sup 233}U and Th-Pu oxide fueled HWR has almost enough potential to produce {sup 233}U but shows positive void reactivity coefficient.

  11. Technosocial Modeling of IED Threat Scenarios and Attacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitney, Paul D.; Brothers, Alan J.; Coles, Garill A.; Young, Jonathan; Wolf, Katherine E.; Thompson, Sandra E.; Niesen, David A.; Madsen, John M.; Henderson, Cynthia L.

    2009-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes an approach for integrating sociological and technical models to develop more complete threat assessment. Current approaches to analyzing and addressing threats tend to focus on the technical factors. This paper addresses development of predictive models that encompass behavioral as well as these technical factors. Using improvised explosive device (IED) attacks as motivation, this model supports identification of intervention activities 'left of boom' as well as prioritizing attack modalities. We show how Bayes nets integrate social factors associated with IED attacks into general threat model containing technical and organizational steps from planning through obtaining the IED to initiation of the attack. The social models are computationally-based representations of relevant social science literature that describes human decision making and physical factors. When combined with technical models, the resulting model provides improved knowledge integration into threat assessment for monitoring. This paper discusses the construction of IED threat scenarios, integration of diverse factors into an analytical framework for threat assessment, indicator identification for future threats, and future research directions.

  12. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  13. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  14. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL] [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL] [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL] [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)] [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  15. Climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. Forest Service research paper

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferguson, S.A.

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), or its greenhouse gas equivalent, were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. A composite approach was taken to generate a climate scenario that considers knowledge of current regional climate controls, available output from general circulation and regional climate models, and observed changes in climate.

  16. Randall-Sundrum scenario with small curvature and dilepton production at LHC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kisselev, A V

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The brief review of the recent results obtained in the Randall-Sundrum scenario with the small curvature of the five-dimensional space-time is presented.

  17. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nicolosi, Marco

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in Texas, Report,Supply, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Sensfuß, F. ,in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios Marco

  18. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun [150, Dukjin-Dong, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the nibbler cutting scenario is that the plasma scenario mostly got the higher scores than the nibbler scenario in the decommissioning cost and safety sections that have high weighting factors. Finally we decided that the plasma cutting scenario is appropriate to dismantle the thermal column. This study has a great meaning in that it can present a reliable scenario through the decommissioning DMU system while this work had only been done through a subjective evaluation in the past. The DMU system will be applied to the KRR-1 decommissioning project to obtain the best scenarios. We believe it will be a useful engineering tool for other nuclear facility decommissioning.

  19. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbon emissions (Summary)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    energy use. China’s Sustainable Energy Future Summary next31 -ii- China’s Sustainable Energy Future Executive Summarystudy, entitled China’s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios

  20. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aden, Nathaniel T.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    on the forecast of total energy demand. Based on this, weIndustrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios Nathaniel T.adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new

  1. Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Buskirk, Robert D.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios for Eritrea,to facilitate clean energy investments, and to accelerateEritrea's clean energy development is investment capital.

  2. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis...

  3. Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilli, Adrian

    Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated

  4. A Scenario-based Predictive Control Approach to Building HVAC Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    A Scenario-based Predictive Control Approach to Building HVAC Management Systems Alessandra Parisio and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems while minimizing the overall energy use. The strategy uses

  5. Technology Interactions among Low Carbon Energy Technologies: What Can We Learn from a Large Number of Scenarios?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Wise, Marshall A.; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Ben; Lempert, Rob

    2011-05-25T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes what can we learn from a large number of climate mitigation technology scenarios?

  6. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Forester, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, J. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

  7. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arthur Hebecker; Patrick Mangat; Fabrizio Rompineve; Lukas T. Witkowski

    2014-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation ($\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of $\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$. It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields. The latter decay channel avoids the most stringent constraints of the sequestered setting. Nevertheless, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small "by accident" as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

  8. Probability distribution functions in the finite density lattice QCD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Ejiri; Y. Nakagawa; S. Aoki; K. Kanaya; H. Saito; T. Hatsuda; H. Ohno; T. Umeda

    2012-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the phase structure of QCD at high temperature and density by lattice QCD simulations adopting a histogram method. We try to solve the problems which arise in the numerical study of the finite density QCD, focusing on the probability distribution function (histogram). As a first step, we investigate the quark mass dependence and the chemical potential dependence of the probability distribution function as a function of the Polyakov loop when all quark masses are sufficiently large, and study the properties of the distribution function. The effect from the complex phase of the quark determinant is estimated explicitly. The shape of the distribution function changes with the quark mass and the chemical potential. Through the shape of the distribution, the critical surface which separates the first order transition and crossover regions in the heavy quark region is determined for the 2+1-flavor case.

  9. Systematics of fusion probability in "hot" fusion reactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ning Wang; Junlong Tian; Werner Scheid

    2011-12-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The fusion probability in "hot" fusion reactions leading to the synthesis of super-heavy nuclei is investigated systematically. The quasi-fission barrier influences the formation of the super-heavy nucleus around the "island of stability" in addition to the shell correction. Based on the quasi-fission barrier height obtained with the Skyrme energy-density functional, we propose an analytical expression for the description of the fusion probability, with which the measured evaporation residual cross sections can be reproduced acceptably well. Simultaneously, some special fusion reactions for synthesizing new elements 119 and 120 are studied. The predicted evaporation residual cross sections for 50Ti+249Bk are about 10-150fb at energies around the entrance-channel Coulomb barrier. For the fusion reactions synthesizing element 120 with projectiles 54Cr and 58Fe, the cross sections fall to a few femtobarns which seems beyond the limit of the available facilities.

  10. Probabilities in the landscape: The decay of nearly flat space

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bousso, Raphael; Freivogel, Ben; Lippert, Matthew [Department of Physics and Center for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40506, USA and University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky 40292 (United States)

    2006-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss aspects of the problem of assigning probabilities in eternal inflation. In particular, we investigate a recent suggestion that the lowest energy de Sitter vacuum in the landscape is effectively stable. The associated proposal for probabilities would relegate lower energy vacua to unlikely excursions of a high entropy system. We note that it would also imply that the string theory landscape is experimentally ruled out. However, we extensively analyze the structure of the space of Coleman-De Luccia solutions, and we present analytic arguments, as well as numerical evidence, that the decay rate varies continuously as the false vacuum energy goes through zero. Hence, low-energy de Sitter vacua do not become anomalously stable; negative and zero-cosmological constant regions cannot be neglected.

  11. Simple and Compact Expressions for Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minakata, Hisakazu

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric Delta m^2 scales. Unlike previous works, we use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. Using this perturbation theory we derive extremely compact expressions for the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter. We find, for example, that the $\

  12. MAS 108 Probability I Continuous random variables Summary

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, R. A.

    when a number is chosen at random from the interval [a,b], with all values equally likely. · p.d.f. f if x > b. · E(X) = (a+b)/2, Var(X) = (b-a)2/12. Normal random variable N(µ,2) (Lindley and Scott, TableMAS 108 Probability I Continuous random variables Summary Uniform random variable U[a,b] · Occurs

  13. An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

  14. Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

    2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

  15. What is the probability that radiation caused a particular cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voelz, G.L.

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Courts, lawyers, health physicists, physicians, and others are searching for a credible answer to the question posed in the title of this paper. The cases in which the question arises frequently stem from an individual that has cancer and they, or their next-of-kin, are convinced that a past radiation exposure - usually small - is responsible for causing it. An arithmetic expression of this problem is simple: the probability of causation by the radiation dose in question is equal to the risk of cancer from the radiation dose divided by the risk of cancer from all causes. The application of risk factors to this equation is not so simple. It must involve careful evaluation of the reliability of and variations in risk coefficients for development of cancer due to radiation exposure, other carcinogenic agents, and natural causes for the particular individual. Examination of our knowledge of these various factors indicates that a large range in the answers can result due to the variability and imprecision of the data. Nevertheless, the attempts to calculate and the probability that radiation caused the cancer is extremely useful to provide a gross perspective on the probability of causation. It will likely rule in or out a significant number of cases despite the limitations in our understandings of the etiology of cancer and the risks from various factors. For the remaining cases, a thoughtful and educated judgment based on selected data and circumstances of the case will also be needed before the expert can develop and support his opinion.

  16. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments.

  17. architecture team-lunar scenario: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    architecture team-lunar scenario First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Scenario-based...

  18. Scenarios and the design process in medical application R. Rasoulifar*, G. Thomann, F. Villeneuve

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    discipline performing in the process of developing medical advances. On the engineering design side, manyScenarios and the design process in medical application R. Rasoulifar*, G. Thomann, F. Villeneuve G of medical application. Keywords: Scenario-Based Design (SBD), Medical Application, User integration 1

  19. Energy Policy 33 (2005) 11171142 Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Energy Policy 33 (2005) 1117­1142 Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual

  20. Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.

    2010-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

    Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.

  1. Development of agro-environmental scenarios to support pesticide risk assessment in Europe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, Hayley

    Development of agro-environmental scenarios to support pesticide risk assessment in Europe T reserved. Keywords: Pesticides Risk assessment Agro-environmental scenarios FOOTPRINT Agricultural Kingdom b Pesticide Environmental Fate, 58, St. Annes Rd., London Colney, St. Albans AL2 1LJ, United

  2. SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diaconescu, Ada

    SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2 , François Huguet1 , Cédric Mivielle1 Systems, Micro Smart Grids. Abstract: Autonomic computing is a bio-inspired vision elaborated to manage presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids ­ district-size "smart" electricity networks

  3. Emmanuel Joffrin XXth Fusion Energy Conference, November 2004 1 The hybrid scenario in JET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emmanuel Joffrin XXth Fusion Energy Conference, November 2004 1 The « hybrid » scenario in JET burning plasma for the hybrid scenario #12;Emmanuel Joffrin XXth Fusion Energy Conference, November 2004 2 4 5 #12;Emmanuel Joffrin XXth Fusion Energy Conference, November 2004 3 JET hybrid regime (1.7T, 1

  4. Newsletter No.7 NOV 2002TechnologyScenarios Knowledge and technology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newsletter No.7 NOV 2002TechnologyScenarios Knowledge and technology are expected to be amongst Technology Scenarios (TES) System Analysis Department Risř National Laboratory P.O. Box 49 DK 4000 Roskilde-mapping, life cycle assessment, and risk analysis. As part of Risř, we profess an understanding of technology

  5. SCENARIOS OF FUTURE LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL: MODELLING STUDY IN DENMARK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 SCENARIOS OF FUTURE LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL: MODELLING STUDY IN DENMARK Gwenn : 10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.027 #12;2 Abstract Objective: To model future trends in lung cancer incidence in Denmark by education under different scenarios for cigarette smoking. Methods: Lung cancer incidence until

  6. Operationalization of Learning Scenarios on Open and Distance Learning platforms: the case of the Moodle Platform

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laforcade, Pierre

    Operationalization of Learning Scenarios on Open and Distance Learning platforms: the case of the Moodle Platform Aymen Abedmouleh, Lahcen Oubahssi, Pierre Laforcade and Christophe Choquet Université du of scenarios on learning platforms. We propose an approach based on the explicitation and the formalization

  7. Thermal leptogenesis and the gravitino problem in the Asaka-Yanagida axion/axino dark matter scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baer, Howard; Lessa, Andre [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 (United States); Kraml, Sabine [Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie, UJF Grenoble 1, CNRS/IN2P3, INPG, 53 Avenue des Martyrs, F-38026 Grenoble (France); Sekmen, Sezen, E-mail: baer@nhn.ou.edu, E-mail: sabine.kraml@lpsc.in2p3.fr, E-mail: lessa.a.p@gmail.com, E-mail: sezen.sekmen@cern.ch [Dept. of Physics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (United States)

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A successful implementation of thermal leptogenesis requires the re-heat temperature after inflation T{sub R} to exceed ? 2 × 10{sup 9} GeV. Such a high T{sub R} value typically leads to an overproduction of gravitinos in the early universe, which will cause conflicts, mainly with BBN constraints. Asaka and Yanagida (AY) have proposed that these two issues can be reconciled in the context of the Peccei-Quinn augmented MSSM (PQMSSM) if one adopts a mass hierarchy m(sparticle) > m(gravitino)>m(axino), with m(axino) ? keV. In this case, sparticle decays bypass the gravitino, and decay more quickly to the axino LSP, thus avoiding the BBN constraints. In addition, thermally produced gravitinos decay inertly to axion+axino, also avoiding BBN constraints. We calculate the relic abundance of mixed axion/axino dark matter in the AY scenario, and investigate under what conditions a value of T{sub R} sufficient for thermal leptogenesis can be generated. A high value of PQ breaking scale f{sub a} is needed to suppress overproduction of axinos, while a small vacuum misalignment angle ?{sub i} is needed to suppress overproduction of axions. The large value of f{sub a} results in late decaying neutralinos. We show that, to avoid BBN constraints, the AY scenario requires a rather low thermal abundance of neutralinos, while higher values of neutralino mass also help. We combine these constraint calculations along with entropy production from late decaying saxions, and find the saxion needs to be typically at least several times heavier than the gravitino. A successful implementation of the AY scenario suggests that LHC should discover a spectrum of SUSY particles consistent with weak scale supergravity; that the apparent neutralino abundance is low; that an axion direct detection signal (probably with m{sub a} in the sub-?eV range) may be possible, but no direct or indirect signals for WIMP dark matter should be observed.

  8. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  9. ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Glyn

    ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 2 to 1 on". What is the engineer's probability for this event? Odds of "7 to 1 on": r = 7 probability 7 1 Solutions [Introduction to Probability; odds, Venn diagrams, decision trees] 1. Draw a decision tree

  10. Visualization of Tokamak Operational Spaces Through the Projection of Data Probability Distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Visualization of Tokamak Operational Spaces Through the Projection of Data Probability Distributions

  11. Jamming probabilities for a vacancy in the dimer model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    V. S. Poghosyan; V. B. Priezzhev; P. Ruelle

    2008-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Following the recent proposal made by Bouttier et al [Phys. Rev. E 76, 041140 (2007)], we study analytically the mobility properties of a single vacancy in the close-packed dimer model on the square lattice. Using the spanning web representation, we find determinantal expressions for various observable quantities. In the limiting case of large lattices, they can be reduced to the calculation of Toeplitz determinants and minors thereof. The probability for the vacancy to be strictly jammed and other diffusion characteristics are computed exactly.

  12. Sample size for logistic regression with small response probability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whittemore, A S

    1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Fisher information matrix for the estimated parameters in a multiple logistic regression can be approximated by the augmented Hessian matrix of the moment generating function for the covariates. The approximation is valid when the probability of response is small. With its use one can obtain a simple closed form estimate of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates, and thus approximate sample sizes needed to test hypotheses about the parameters. The method is developed for selected distributions of a single covariate, and for a class of exponential-type distributions of several covariates. It is illustrated with an example concerning risk factors for coronary heart disease.

  13. Universal Probability Distribution Function for Bursty Transport in Plasma Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandberg, I. [National Technical University of Athens, Association Euratom-Hellenic Republic, Athens 15773 (Greece); National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing, Penteli 15236 (Greece); Benkadda, S. [France-Japan Magnetic Fusion Laboratory, LIA 336/UMR 6633 CNRS-Universite de Provence, Marseille (France); Garbet, X. [I.R.F.M., CEA Cadarache, St Paul-Les-Durance 13108 (France); Ropokis, G. [National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing, Penteli 15236 (Greece); Hizanidis, K. [National Technical University of Athens, Association Euratom-Hellenic Republic, Athens 15773 (Greece); Castillo-Negrete, D. del [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-8071 (United States)

    2009-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Bursty transport phenomena associated with convective motion present universal statistical characteristics among different physical systems. In this Letter, a stochastic univariate model and the associated probability distribution function for the description of bursty transport in plasma turbulence is presented. The proposed stochastic process recovers the universal distribution of density fluctuations observed in plasma edge of several magnetic confinement devices and the remarkable scaling between their skewness S and kurtosis K. Similar statistical characteristics of variabilities have been also observed in other physical systems that are characterized by convection such as the x-ray fluctuations emitted by the Cygnus X-1 accretion disc plasmas and the sea surface temperature fluctuations.

  14. Probability Tables for Mendelian Ratios with Small Numbers.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Warwick, B. L. (Bruce L.)

    1932-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . Agronomist R. H. Wyche, B. S., Superintendent No. 14. Sonora, Sutton-Edwards Counties **H. M. Beachell. B. S., Jr., Agronomist W H. Dameron Superintendent No. 5, Temple, Bell County: I. B. bough ton,'^. V. M., Veterinarian Henry Dunlavy, M. S... Coefficients / -expysP" 1 1 Probability - als (5). The coefficient is represented by or converted to I r l n-r (?4)3(%) 4(e7/e4)(1/4) 2 2 '- our terms where n equals the number in the sample, D the num- ID IR* ber of dominants, and R the number...

  15. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ehlen, Mark Andrew (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

  16. Scenario guidance handbook for emergency-preparedness exercises at nuclear facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laughlin, G.J.; Martin, G.F.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As part of the Emergency Preparedness Implementation Appraisal Program conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the technical assistance of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), emergency preparedness exercises are observed on an annual basis at all licensed reactor facilities. One of the significant findings to arise from these observations was that a large number of the commonly observed problems originated in the design of the scenarios used as a basis for each exercise. In an effort to help eliminate some of these problems a scenario guidance handbook has been generated by PNL for the NRC to assist nuclear power plant licensees in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises.

  17. Measurement of the Fusion Probability, PCN, for Hot Fusion Reactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. Yanez; W. Loveland; J. S. Barrett; L. Yao; B. B. Back; S. Zhu; T. L. Khoo

    2013-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Background: The cross section for forming a heavy evaporation residue in fusion reactions depends on the capture cross section, the fusion probability, PCN, i.e., the probability that the projectile-target system will evolve inside the fission saddle point to form a completely fused system rather than re-separating (quasifission), and the survival of the completely fused system against fission. PCN is the least known of these quantities. Purpose: To measure PCN for the reaction of 101.2 MeV 18O, 147.3 MeV 26Mg, 170.9 MeV 30Si and 195.3 MeV 36S with 197Au. Methods: We measured the fission fragment angular distributions for these reactions and used the formalism of Back to deduce the fusion-fission and quasifission cross sections. From these quantities we deduced PCN for each reaction. Results: The values of PCN for the reaction of 101.2 MeV 18O, 147.3 MeV 26Mg, 170.9 MeV 30Si and 195.3 MeV 36S with 197Au are 0.66, 1.00, 0.06, 0.13, respectively. Conclusions: The new measured values of PCN agree roughly with the semi-empirical system- atic dependence of PCN upon fissility for excited nuclei.

  18. PROBABILITY BASED CORROSION CONTROL FOR LIQUID WASTE TANKS - PART III

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, E.; Edwards, T.

    2010-12-09T23:59:59.000Z

    The liquid waste chemistry control program is designed to reduce the pitting corrosion occurrence on tank walls. The chemistry control program has been implemented, in part, by applying engineering judgment safety factors to experimental data. However, the simple application of a general safety factor can result in use of excessive corrosion inhibiting agents. The required use of excess corrosion inhibitors can be costly for tank maintenance, waste processing, and in future tank closure. It is proposed that a probability-based approach can be used to quantify the risk associated with the chemistry control program. This approach can lead to the application of tank-specific chemistry control programs reducing overall costs associated with overly conservative use of inhibitor. Furthermore, when using nitrite as an inhibitor, the current chemistry control program is based on a linear model of increased aggressive species requiring increased protective species. This linear model was primarily supported by experimental data obtained from dilute solutions with nitrate concentrations less than 0.6 M, but is used to produce the current chemistry control program up to 1.0 M nitrate. Therefore, in the nitrate space between 0.6 and 1.0 M, the current control limit is based on assumptions that the linear model developed from data in the <0.6 M region is applicable in the 0.6-1.0 M region. Due to this assumption, further investigation of the nitrate region of 0.6 M to 1.0 M has potential for significant inhibitor reduction, while maintaining the same level of corrosion risk associated with the current chemistry control program. Ongoing studies have been conducted in FY07, FY08, FY09 and FY10 to evaluate the corrosion controls at the SRS tank farm and to assess the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting in ASTM A537 carbon steel below 1.0 molar nitrate. The experimentation from FY08 suggested a non-linear model known as the mixture/amount model could be used to predict the probability of corrosion in ASTM A537 in varying solutions as shown in Figure 1. The mixture/amount model takes into account not only the ratio (or mixture) of inhibitors and aggressive species, but also the total concentration (or amount) of species in a solution. Historically, the ratio was the only factor taken into consideration in the development of the current chemistry control program. During FY09, an experimental program was undertaken to refine the mixture/amount model by further investigating the risk associated with reducing the minimum molar nitrite concentration required to confidently inhibit pitting in dilute solutions. The results of FY09, as shown in Figure 2, quantified the probability for a corrosion free outcome for combinations of nitrate and nitrite. The FY09 data predict probabilities up to 70%. Additional experimental data are needed to increase the probability to an acceptable percentage.

  19. Batteries and electrochemical energy storage are central to any future alternative energy scenario. Future energy generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Batteries and electrochemical energy storage are central to any future alternative energy scenario. Future energy generation sources are likely to be intermittent, requiring storage capacity energy storage for uninterrupted power supply units, the electrical grid, and transportation. Of all

  20. The DYMO Routing Protocol in VANET Scenarios Christoph Sommer and Falko Dressler

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breu, Ruth

    The DYMO Routing Protocol in VANET Scenarios Christoph Sommer and Falko Dressler Computer Networks and Communication Systems Dept. of Computer Sciences, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany {christoph.sommer

  1. Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steward, D. M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010

  2. LWR codes capability to address SFR BDBA scenarios: Modeling of the ABCOVE tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herranz, L. E.; Garcia, M. [Unit of Nuclear Safety Research, CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Morandi, S. [Nuclear and Industrial Plant Safety Team, Power Generation System Dept., RSE via Rubattino 54, 20134 Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The sound background built-up in LWR source term analysis in case of a severe accident, make it worth to check the capability of LWR safety analysis codes to model accident SFR scenarios, at least in some areas. This paper gives a snapshot of such predictability in the area of aerosol behavior in containment. To do so, the AB-5 test of the ABCOVE program has been modeled with 3 LWR codes: ASTEC, ECART and MELCOR. Through the search of a best estimate scenario and its comparison to data, it is concluded that even in the specific case of in-containment aerosol behavior, some enhancements would be needed in the LWR codes and/or their application, particularly with respect to consideration of particle shape. Nonetheless, much of the modeling presently embodied in LWR codes might be applicable to SFR scenarios. These conclusions should be seen as preliminary as long as comparisons are not extended to more experimental scenarios. (authors)

  3. Postdoctoral Scholar position Area: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURES SCENARIO DESIGN AND APPLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Leon, Alex R.

    Postdoctoral Scholar position Area: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURES SCENARIO DESIGN AND APPLICATIONS Fellow in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Job Description: The Enbridge Centre for Corporate Sustainability-doctoral fellow to explore how energy companies engage in planning for sustainable futures. More specifically

  4. Delaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource Standard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delaware, University of

    , state, federal and international agencies and nonprofit organizations. The Center is composed and development, environmental justice, conservation and renewable energy options, integrated resource planningDelaware's Energy Efficiency Potential and Program Scenarios to Meet Its Energy Efficiency Resource

  5. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  6. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  7. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  8. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine 14 (1998) 139155 Scenario recognition for temporal reasoning in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dojat, Michel

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ´ et de la Recherche Me´dicale, U438-RMN Bioclinique, Centre Hospitalier Uni6ersitaire-Pa6illon B, BP scenario S01 excerpt from the management of mechanical ventilation may have the following sequence (Fig. 1

  9. Influencing managerial cognition and decisions using scenarios for long-range planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phadnis, Shardul Sharad, 1978-

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation presents empirical findings related to two aspects of long-range planning: scenario planning as a planning method and cognition of planners. Long-range planning situations are encountered when designing ...

  10. The Trinity of Equity, Equality and Poverty in the scenario of Economic Globalization: Which Institutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    The Trinity of Equity, Equality and Poverty in the scenario of Economic Globalization: Which-biased than equity principle at work in case of taxation, property rights, and land reforms. In the trinity

  11. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Inc Missouri Arab Electric Coop Inc Arizona Corporation Commission Arizona Electric Pwr Coop Inc Arizona Power Authority Arizona Public Service Co Ark Valley Elec Coop Assn...

  12. North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOrigin of Contamination in Many DevilsForumEnginesVacantmagneticDepartment ofDepartment

  13. North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreaking ofOilNEW HAMPSHIREofNewsletter NewsletterGeneralof EnergyDepartment

  14. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere I Geothermal Pwer PlantMunhall,Missouri:EnergyOssian, New York: EnergyOuachita Electric Coop

  15. August 14, 2003 Power Outages Â… Announcement

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't Your Destiny: The FutureComments from TarasaName4ServicesTribal Renewable Energy Projects,

  16. Systems and Services Outage Notification Policy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del SolStrengthening a solid ...SuccessSurprisingSynchrotronsPlasma Physics Bioenergy

  17. RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible forPortsmouth/Paducah47,193.70COMMUNITYResponses:December 11, 2014WD2 MAY2 -

  18. Low-Recycling Conditions and Improved Core Confinement in Steady-State Operation Scenarios in JET (Joint European Torus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Low-Recycling Conditions and Improved Core Confinement in Steady-State Operation Scenarios in JET (Joint European Torus)

  19. Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part I: The JET In-vessel Cryopump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part I: The JET In-vessel Cryopump

  20. Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part II: The JET LHCD Cryopump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Theoretical and Experimental Simulation of Accident Scenarios of the JET Cryogenic Components Part II: The JET LHCD Cryopump

  1. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komiyama, Ryoichi

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CO2 recovery and storage (CCS) Emissions after cuts (Technology Advance scenario (substantial C 0 emission reduction)) '

  2. Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership Capability and Capacity; and Virtual Human Resource Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McWhorter, Rochell 1963-

    2011-08-03T23:59:59.000Z

    SCENARIO PLANNING AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEADERSHIP CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY; AND VIRTUAL HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT A Dissertation by ROCHELL RAE MCWHORTER Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University... Capability and Capacity; and Virtual Human Resource Development Copyright 2011 Rochell Rae McWhorter SCENARIO PLANNING AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEADERSHIP CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY; AND VIRTUAL HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT A Dissertation...

  3. Probable maximum flood control; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L. [Bechtel National, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    1991-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility.

  4. How to Determine the Probability of the Higgs Boson Detection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexander Unzicker

    2009-12-02T23:59:59.000Z

    The Higgs boson is the most important, though yet undiscovered ingredient of the standard model of particle physics. Its detection is therefore one of the most important goals of high energy physics that can guide future research in theoretical physics. Enormous efforts have been undertaken to prove the existence of the Higgs boson, and the physics community is excitedly awaiting the restart of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? The German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended betting at such controversial questions, and Stephen Hawking announced a $100 bet against the Higgs. But seriously, online prediction markets, which are a generalized form of betting, do provide the best possible probability estimates for future events. It is proposed that the scientific community uses this platforms for evaluation. See also an online description www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com.

  5. Net-proton probability distribution in heavy ion collisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    P. Braun-Munzinger; B. Friman; F. Karsch; K. Redlich; V. Skokov

    2011-07-21T23:59:59.000Z

    We compute net-proton probability distributions in heavy ion collisions within the hadron resonance gas model. The model results are compared with data taken by the STAR Collaboration in Au-Au collisions at sqrt(s_{NN})= 200 GeV for different centralities. We show that in peripheral Au-Au collisions the measured distributions, and the resulting first four moments of net-proton fluctuations, are consistent with results obtained from the hadron resonance gas model. However, data taken in central Au-Au collisions differ from the predictions of the model. The observed deviations can not be attributed to uncertainties in model parameters. We discuss possible interpretations of the observed deviations.

  6. Bayesian failure probability model sensitivity study. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The Office of the Manager, National Communications System (OMNCS) has developed a system-level approach for estimating the effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) on the connectivity of telecommunications networks. This approach incorporates a Bayesian statistical model which estimates the HEMP-induced failure probabilities of telecommunications switches and transmission facilities. The purpose of this analysis is to address the sensitivity of the Bayesian model. This is done by systematically varying two model input parameters--the number of observations, and the equipment failure rates. Throughout the study, a non-informative prior distribution is used. The sensitivity of the Bayesian model to the noninformative prior distribution is investigated from a theoretical mathematical perspective.

  7. Membership Probability via Control Field Colour-Magnitude Decontamination

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Corradi, Wagner J B; Santos, Joao F C

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The open clusters fundamental physical parameters are important tools to understand the formation and evolution of the Galactic disk and as grounding tests for star formation and evolution models. However only a small fraction of the known open clusters in the Milky Way has precise determination of distance, reddening, age, metallicity, radial velocity and proper motion. One of the major problems in determining these parameters lies on the difficulty to separate cluster members from field stars and to assign membership. We propose a decontamination method by employing 2MASS data in the encircling region of the clusters NGC1981, NGC2516, NGC6494 and M11. We present a decontaminated CMD of these objects showing the membership probabilities and structural parameters as derived from King profile fitting.

  8. Seismic pulse propagation with constant Q and stable probability distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Francesco Mainardi; Massimo Tomirotti

    2010-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The one-dimensional propagation of seismic waves with constant Q is shown to be governed by an evolution equation of fractional order in time, which interpolates the heat equation and the wave equation. The fundamental solutions for the Cauchy and Signalling problems are expressed in terms of entire functions (of Wright type) in the similarity variable and their behaviours turn out to be intermediate between those for the limiting cases of a perfectly viscous fluid and a perfectly elastic solid. In view of the small dissipation exhibited by the seismic pulses, the nearly elastic limit is considered. Furthermore, the fundamental solutions for the Cauchy and Signalling problems are shown to be related to stable probability distributions with index of stability determined by the order of the fractional time derivative in the evolution equation.

  9. Probability-theoretical analog of the vector Lyapunov function method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakonechnyi, A.N.

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The main ideas of the vector Lyapunov function (VLF) method were advanced in 1962 by Bellman and Matrosov. In this method, a Lyapunov function and a comparison equation are constructed for each subsystem. Then the dependences between the subsystems and the effect of external noise are allowed for by constructing a vector Lyapunov function (as a collection of the scalar Lyapunov functions of the subsystems) and an aggregate comparison function for the entire complex system. A probability-theoretical analog of this method for convergence analysis of stochastic approximation processes has been developed. The abstract approach proposed elsewhere eliminates all restrictions on the system phase space, the system trajectories, the class of Lyapunov functions, etc. The analysis focuses only on the conditions that relate sequences of Lyapunov function values with the derivative and ensure a particular type (mode, character) of stability. In our article, we extend this approach to the VLF method for discrete stochastic dynamic systems.

  10. Matter-enhanced transition probabilities in quantum field theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ishikawa, Kenzo, E-mail: ishikawa@particle.sci.hokudai.ac.jp; Tobita, Yutaka

    2014-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The relativistic quantum field theory is the unique theory that combines the relativity and quantum theory and is invariant under the Poincaré transformation. The ground state, vacuum, is singlet and one particle states are transformed as elements of irreducible representation of the group. The covariant one particles are momentum eigenstates expressed by plane waves and extended in space. Although the S-matrix defined with initial and final states of these states hold the symmetries and are applied to isolated states, out-going states for the amplitude of the event that they are detected at a finite-time interval T in experiments are expressed by microscopic states that they interact with, and are surrounded by matters in detectors and are not plane waves. These matter-induced effects modify the probabilities observed in realistic situations. The transition amplitudes and probabilities of the events are studied with the S-matrix, S[T], that satisfies the boundary condition at T. Using S[T], the finite-size corrections of the form of 1/T are found. The corrections to Fermi’s golden rule become larger than the original values in some situations for light particles. They break Lorentz invariance even in high energy region of short de Broglie wave lengths. -- Highlights: •S-matrix S[T] for the finite-time interval in relativistic field theory. •S[T] satisfies the boundary condition and gives correction of 1/T . •The large corrections for light particles breaks Lorentz invariance. •The corrections have implications to neutrino experiments.

  11. Analysis of the probability distribution of photocount number of the onemode stochastic radiation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu. P. Virchenko; N. N. Vitokhina

    2005-02-11T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mandel probability distribution of one-mode stochastic radiation photocounts is analized. Approximations of n-photon registration probabilities with guaranteed accuracy are obtained in the case when the registration time is sufficiently small.

  12. Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: An Occurrence-Mechanism Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Yinhai

    Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: An Occurrence intersections, rear-end accidents are frequently the predominant accident type. These accidents result from to this deceleration. This paper mathematically represents this process, by expressing accident probability

  13. Defining Classes of Influences for the Acquisition of Probability Constraints for Bayesian Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Linda C. van der Gaag and Eveline M. Helsper 1 Abstract. The task of eliciting all probabilities, eveline}@cs.uu.nl 2 PRELIMINARIES A Bayesian network is a model of a joint probability distribution

  14. Systematics of delayed neutron emission probabilities in medium mass nuclides (fission products)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nir-El, Y

    1976-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The systematic behavior of emission probabilities was found to be determined by the nuclear pairing and the mass region of the precursor. The derivation of the systematics is based on a simplification of the general formula of the emission probability. The comparison made with the available experimental data leads to a semi- empirical formula for delayed neutron probabilities. This formula was used for the prediction of unknown values of emission probabilities for unidentified precursors.

  15. 1. Department, Course Number, Title ORE 608, Probability and Statistics for Ocean Engineers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frandsen, Jannette B.

    1. Department, Course Number, Title ORE 608, Probability and Statistics for Ocean Engineers 2-spectra, and practical applications in ocean engineering. Pre: 607 or consent. 4. Prerequisites Calculus Probability and ocean engineering. 7. Topics Covered Random Variables Monte Carlo Methods Probability Density Functions

  16. MTH734U-MTHM012 Topics in Probability & Stochastic Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stark, Dudley

    MTH734U-MTHM012 Topics in Probability & Stochastic Processes Problem Sheet 9 1. Consider the 2 probabilities Pi,j(t) for i, j S. (c) Determine the limiting probabilities i for i S. 3. Sam Lacker) What is the generator matrix G? (b) What is the long-run proportion of time Sam is able to study? (c

  17. ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Glyn

    ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Some Practice surviving a current of 3 µA for 2 hours is "4 to 1 against". What is the engineer's probability for this event? (b) An engineer states that the probability of another prototype microchip surviving a current

  18. ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Glyn

    ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 5 Probability distributions, expectation, variance 1. A discrete function of x is defined by ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 8 3 4 1, 1 0 0 otherwis x p x x e = - + = = (a) Verify that p(x) is a well-defined probability

  19. ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Glyn

    ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 2 MN for 25 years is "7 to 1 on". What is the engineer's probability for this event? 3. The event E [Introduction to Probability; odds, Venn diagrams, decision trees] 1. Draw a decision tree, involving choice

  20. Atomic Transition Probabilities of Silicon. A Critical Compilation D. E. Kellehera...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Magee, Joseph W.

    Atomic Transition Probabilities of Silicon. A Critical Compilation D. E. Kellehera... and L. I. Atomic Transition Probabilities, Vol. II: Sodium through Cal- cium, NSRDS-NBS Vol. 22 U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1969 . Atomic transition probabilities have been critically evaluated and compiled

  1. von Neumann algebras and Free Probability RMS meeting, ISI Bengaluru, May 13 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sunder, V S

    von Neumann algebras and Free Probability RMS meeting, ISI Bengaluru, May 13 2009 V.S. Sunder von Neumann algebras and Free Probability RMS meeting, ISI Bengaluru, M #12;Groups and algebras Groups: V.S. Sunder IMSc, Chennai von Neumann algebras and Free Probability RMS meeting, ISI Bengaluru, M

  2. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.

  3. Hilbert's Sixth Problem: Descriptive Statistics as New Foundations for Probability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Joseph F

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hay esbozas tras las cuales las probabilidades se cuentan como la fundaci\\'on de la teor\\'\\i a matem\\'atica de las estad\\'\\i sticas. Mas la significaci\\'on f\\'\\i sica de las probabilidades matem\\'aticas son oscuros, muy poco entendidos. Parecer\\'\\i a mejor que las probabilidades f\\'\\i sicas sean fundadas en las estad\\'\\i sticas descriptivas de datos fisicales. Se trate una teor\\'\\i a que as\\'\\i responde a una cuestiona de Hilbert propuesta en su Problema N\\'umero Seis, la axiomatizaci\\'on de la F\\'\\i sica. Est\\'a basada en la auto-correlaci\\'on de los series temporales. Casi todas de las funciones de auto-correlaci\\'on de las trayector\\'\\i as de un sistema din\\'amico lineal (de lo cual el n\\'umero de sus grados de libertad sea bastante grande) son todas aproximadamente iguales, no importan las condiciones iniciales, a\\'un si el sistema no sea erg\\'odico, como conjetur\\'o Khintchine en 1943. Usually, the theory of probability has been made the foundation for the theory of statistics. But the physical significa...

  4. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.; Weber, J. K.; Raut, E.; Larson, V. E.; Wang, M.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and midlatitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak.more »The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  5. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)

    2014-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure ? (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents ?{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  6. Delayed neutron emission probabilities of Li-F nuclides

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeder, P.L.; Warner, R.A.; Hensley, W.K. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Vieira, D.J.; Wouters, J.M. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA))

    1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Delayed neutron emission probabilities (P{sub n}) have been measured for 18 nuclides ranging from {sup 9}Li to {sup 25}F. Neutron-rich nuclides were produced by reaction of 800 MeV p on a {sup 232}Th target at the LAMPF accelerator at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Recoil nuclides were individually identified as to their mass, nuclear charged, and ionic charge by use of the Time-of-Flight Isochronous (TOFI) spectrometer. The distribution of time intervals between the arrival of a specific ion and the subsequent detection of a neutron was determined. The P{sub n} was calculated from the total number of ions observed, the initial neutron count rate, the neutron counting efficiency, and the half-life. The technique is shown to be valid for half-lives ranging from 10 ms ({sup 15}B) to 4 s ({sup 17}N) and for P{sub n} values as low as 0.3% ({sup 13}B). Delayed neutron emission has been measured for {sup 12}Be, {sup 14}B, {sup 17}C, {sup 18}N, {sup 21}N, and {sup 25}F for the first time. A small branch for beta-delayed two-neutron emission was observed in {sup 15}B (P{sub 2n} = 0.4 {plus minus} 0.2%). 14 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

  8. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.

  9. Characterizing fault-plume intersection probability for geologic carbon sequestration risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, Preston D.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe

    2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Leakage of CO{sub 2} out of the designated storage region via faults is a widely recognized concern for geologic carbon sequestration. The probability of such leakage can be separated into the probability of a plume encountering a fault and the probability of flow along such a fault. In the absence of deterministic fault location information, the first probability can be calculated from regional fault population statistics and modeling of the plume shape and size. In this study, fault statistical parameters were measured or estimated for WESTCARB's Phase III pilot test injection in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Combining CO{sub 2} plume model predictions with estimated fault characteristics resulted in a 3% probability that the CO{sub 2} plume will encounter a fault fully offsetting the 180 m (590 ft) thick seal. The probability of leakage is lower, likely much lower, as faults with this offset are probably low-permeability features in this area.

  10. Cooperative Diversity with Disconnection Constraints and Sleep Discipline for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    -time application sensitive to disconnections (outages) of the communication. Specifically, we suggest in terms of outage probability. Suboptimal solutions are also discussed. Numerical examples are provided, Fading, Outage. I. INTRODUCTION A major challenge in the design of systems based on wireless sensor

  11. TURBULENCE IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL DEFLAGRATION MODEL FOR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE. II. INTERMITTENCY AND THE DEFLAGRATION-TO-DETONATION TRANSITION PROBABILITY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmidt, W.; Niemeyer, J. C. [Institut fuer Astrophysik, Universitaet Goettingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, D-37077 Goettingen (Germany); Ciaraldi-Schoolmann, F. [Lehrstuhl fuer Astronomie und Astrophysik, Universitaet Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, D-97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Roepke, F. K.; Hillebrandt, W., E-mail: schmidt@astro.physik.uni-goettingen.d [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany)

    2010-02-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The delayed detonation model describes the observational properties of the majority of Type Ia supernovae very well. Using numerical data from a three-dimensional deflagration model for Type Ia supernovae, the intermittency of the turbulent velocity field and its implications on the probability of a deflagration-to-detonation (DDT) transition are investigated. From structure functions of the turbulent velocity fluctuations, we determine intermittency parameters based on the log-normal and the log-Poisson models. The bulk of turbulence in the ash regions appears to be less intermittent than predicted by the standard log-normal model and the She-Leveque model. On the other hand, the analysis of the turbulent velocity fluctuations in the vicinity of the flame front by Roepke suggests a much higher probability of large velocity fluctuations on the grid scale in comparison to the log-normal intermittency model. Following Pan et al., we computed probability density functions for a DDT for the different distributions. The determination of the total number of regions at the flame surface, in which DDTs can be triggered, enables us to estimate the total number of events. Assuming that a DDT can occur in the stirred flame regime, as proposed by Woosley et al., the log-normal model would imply a delayed detonation between 0.7 and 0.8 s after the beginning of the deflagration phase for the multi-spot ignition scenario used in the simulation. However, the probability drops to virtually zero if a DDT is further constrained by the requirement that the turbulent velocity fluctuations reach about 500 km s{sup -1}. Under this condition, delayed detonations are only possible if the distribution of the velocity fluctuations is not log-normal. From our calculations follows that the distribution obtained by Roepke allow for multiple DDTs around 0.8 s after ignition at a transition density close to 1 x 10{sup 7} g cm{sup -3}.

  12. On the probability of the collision of a Mars-sized planet with the Earth to form the Moon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dvorak, Rudolf; Maindl, Thomas I

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The problem of the formation of the Moon is still not explained satisfactorily. While it is a generally accepted scenario that the last giant impact on Earth between some 50 to 100 million years after the starting of the formation of the terrestrial planets formed our natural satellite, there are still many open questions like the isotopic composition which is identical for these two bodies. In our investigation we will not deal with these problems of chemical composition but rather undertake a purely dynamical study to find out the probability of a Mars-sized body to collide with the Earth shortly after the formation of the Earth-like planets. For that we assume an additional massive body between Venus and Earth, respectively Earth and Mars which formed there at the same time as the other terrestrial planets. We have undertaken massive n-body integrations of such a planetary system with 4 inner planets (we excluded Mercury but assumed one additional body as mentioned before) for up to tens of millions of yea...

  13. Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E. [RBAC, Inc., Sherman Oaks, CA

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  14. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Limited, (United Kingdom); Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

  15. Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Valentine, G.; Crowe, B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)] [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants.

  16. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benetto, Enrico [ECOINNOVA France, 47 rue M. Flandin, 69003 Lyon Cedex 3 (France)]. E-mail: benetto@ecoinnova.it; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia [INSA Lyon-LAEPSI, 20 rue A.Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex, since November 2005: INSA Toulouse-LIPE, 135 av. de Rangueil, 31077 Toulouse cedex France (France)]. E-mail: ligia.barna@insa-toulouse.fr; Perrodin, Yves [ENTPE-LSE, rue M.Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin cedex (France)]. E-mail: perrodin@entpe.fr

    2007-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested.

  17. Risk Mathematics and Quantum Games on Quantum Risk Structures - A Nuclear War Scenario Game

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlos Pedro Gonçalves

    2012-11-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantum game theory is combined with risk mathematics' formalism to provide an approach to evolutionary scenario analysis. The formalism is addressed in its general form and is then applied to an extreme risks modelling case, to model a coevolving dynamical web of systemic situations representing the evolution of the regional tensions between two countries with nuclear weapons. The model's results are addressed regarding the potential for regional nuclear conflict to take place, and how evolutionary scenario analysis may contribute to nuclear war threat assessment and dynamical risk analysis. A final discussion is provided in what regards risk mathematics based on the evolutionary approach to risk assessement resulting from the combination of quantum game theory, morphic web representations and scenario analysis.

  18. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

  19. Double Ended Guillotine Break in a Prismatic Block VHTR Lower Plenum Air Ingress Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hartley, Jessica

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The double ended guillotine break leading to density-driven air ingress has been identified as a low probability yet high consequence event for Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The lower plenum of the VHTR contains the core support structure...

  20. Scenario Jedi

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    right at the point of entry. This obviates the inconvenience of having to flip to search for information in FAQs. - Marked increase in use of "breadcrumbs," hot link buttons...