Sample records for operational ocean forecast

  1. Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems

  2. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  3. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  4. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.18 page 104 BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oke, Peter

    physics are also simpler in the ocean than in the atmosphere. Ocean attenuation of penetrative solar BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia Gary B. Brassington1 , Graham Warren1 are now on standby. At their disposal are analyses and forecasts from the Bureau's new operational ocean

  5. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  6. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  7. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  8. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  9. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  10. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  11. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  14. THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

  15. A satellite ocean color observation operator system for eutrophication assessment in coastal waters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fontana, Clément

    A satellite ocean color observation operator system for eutrophication assessment in coastal waters: Satellite ocean color Observation operator Eutrophication Remote sensing Radiative transfer modeling

  16. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  17. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  19. Model Predictability-Form Lorenz System to Operational Ocean and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chu, Peter C.

    Model Predictability- Form Lorenz System to Operational Ocean and Atmospheric Models Peter C Chu. Poberezhny, 2002: Power law decay in model predictability skill. Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (15), 10 Six Months Four-Times Daily Data From July 9, 1998 for Verification #12;Model Generated Velocity

  20. VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez This paper presents an initial validation of a solar radiation service that provides historical, as well observed solar radiation conditions based on immediate measured history: The position and impact of future

  1. Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models Using GODAE Nowcasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shay, Lynn K. "Nick"

    in available thermal energy associated with energetic boundary currents and ocean eddies require their accurate temperature (SST) cooling. The potential for the ocean to support intensification depends on the thermal energy available to the storm, which in turn depends on both the temperature and thickness of the upper-ocean

  2. Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ducatelle, Frederick

    Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area for secure operation, management of modern power systems and electricity production in the power generation

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  4. Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

  5. Design And Operation Of A Wireline Pressure Core Sampler (PCS) OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Design And Operation Of A Wireline Pressure Core Sampler (PCS) OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Technical Note 17 T. L. Pettigrew Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive. & Drilling Operations Timothy J.G. Francis Deputy Director August 1992 #12;Material in this publication may

  6. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  7. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean OPERATIONS MANUAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rigor, Ignatius G.

    Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean OPERATIONS MANUAL 2009-2010 Joint Institute Operations Manual Revised October 2009---mcs 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION 4 A. Organization Chart Employees 14 I. Equipment Inventory and Property Activity 14 #12;JISAO Operations Manual Revised October

  8. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  9. Packaging effects: operating frequency, power, complexity, reliability, and cost The packaging challenge is too keep up with the demands of forecasted silicon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Patel, Chintan

    Packaging effects: operating frequency, power, complexity, reliability, and cost The packaging challenge is too keep up with the demands of forecasted silicon technology and forecasted cost targets. Low performance (servers, avionics, supercomputers) Harsh (under the hood and hostile environments) #12;power

  10. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  11. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  12. Forecasting the Coastal Ocean: Resolution, Tide, and Operational Data in the South Atlantic Bight

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    (river, wind, atmospheric heating and stress) are to be applied directly, while remote or far a remotely-driven process and must be represented by barotropic boundary conditions on the shelf. The wind-band dynamic is partly of local origin (direct response to surface pressure and traction) and partly of remote

  13. Environmental Conditions for Ocean Drilling Program Operations in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AND VISIBILITY 13 VII. ICE COVERAGE/ICEBERGS 13 VIII. CURRENTS 17 IX. WAVES 20 X. RECOMMENDATIONS 21 REFERENCES (Weddell Sea and subantarctic South Atlantic, respectively). Leg 113 is currently scheduled to depart Punta and a current of 3-4 knots, the drill string parted. Weather interfered at Site 327, where operations were

  14. www.cesos.ntnu.no Author Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nřrvĺg, Kjetil

    1 www.cesos.ntnu.no Author ­ Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation Structures Deep Water Offshore Wind Economic Production Cost WT Life Time : 20 Years Introduction Vast icing for offshore Wind Turbines ? · Wherever there is sea icing ! · Temperature bellow zero degree

  15. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  16. FEASIBILITY STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING AND OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING FOR RISK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of the Swiss electricity supply companies Alpiq, Axpo, BKW, CKW and EGL, who operate the nuclear power plants

  17. Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights of Mexico. Before the storm, it produced 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 160 million cubic over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200

  18. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  20. The Nereus Hybrid Underwater Robotic Vehicle for Global Ocean Science Operations to 11,000m Depth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitcomb, Louis L.

    The Nereus Hybrid Underwater Robotic Vehicle for Global Ocean Science Operations to 11,000m Depth-- This paper reports an overview of the new Nereus hybrid underwater vehicle and summarizes the vehicle's per hybrid underwater vehicle and summarizes its performance during its first sea trials. Nereus is a novel

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

  2. A transfer operator based numerical investigation of coherent structures in three-dimensional Southern ocean circulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Froyland, Gary

    approach identified gyre regions on the ocean surface with 10% greater coherence than standard oceano- graphic techniques based on sea surface height measure- ments. The less direct method of finite time

  3. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  4. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  5. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  6. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  7. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayed˛ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  8. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  9. CoastWatch/OceanWatch Proving Ground: VIIRS Ocean Color

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ;VIIRS Operational Ocean Color User: NWS/EMC · Phytoplankton alter the penetration of solar radiationCoastWatch/OceanWatch Proving Ground: VIIRS Ocean Color User Engagement, Quality Assessment Science Seminar #12;Outline Overview of VIIRS Ocean Color Proving Ground (Hughes) VIIRS Ocean Color

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  11. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  12. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  13. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  14. Ocean Engineering at UNH THE OCEAN ENGINEERING program at UNH provides students with hands-on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pringle, James "Jamie"

    -on opportunities for research in ocean renewable energy, remotely operated vehicles, ocean mapping, ocean acousticsOcean Engineering at UNH THE OCEAN ENGINEERING program at UNH provides students with hands, and coastal processes. The Jere A. Chase Ocean Engineering Laboratory is equipped with state

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  16. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  17. Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change John Ferguson1 NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries're finding - adult forecasts and climate change) #12;1. Past (for context) · The coastal pelagic ecosystem/survival #12;NE Pacific Ocean fisheries productivity, 200 BC to 2000 AD (by Finney et al. 2002 Nature) Main

  18. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 190 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    164 Japan __________________ Dr. Jack Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling under the international Ocean Drilling Program, which is managed by Joint Oceanographic Institutions) Natural Environment Research Council (United Kingdom) European Science Foundation Consortium for the Ocean

  19. A Brief Introduction to Ocean Oil Spills Professor Tommy Dickey, Secretary of the Navy/Chief of Naval Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    of Mexico Spill Ongoing BP Deepwater Horizon ­ Gulf of Mexico ­ estimates of 12,000-24,000 bbls/day or 430 by BP Photo provided by BP NASA Terra image #12;What are Causes of Ocean Oil Spills? * Oil drilling rig B lawsuit, >$2 B cleanup costs #12;BP Deepwater Horizon ­ Gulf of Mexico Located 40 miles southeast

  20. The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx): Goals, platforms, and field operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, R.; Springston, S.; Mechoso, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; A.Weller, R.; Huebert, B.; Straneo, F.; Albrecht, B. A.; Coe, H.; Allen, G.; Vaughan, G.; Daum, P.; Fairall, C.; Chand, D.; Klenner, L. G.; Garreaud, R.; Grados, C.; Covert, D. S.; Bates, T. S.; Krejci, R.; Russell, L. M.; Szoeke, S. d.; Brewer, A.; Yuter, S. E.; Chaigneau, A.; Toniazzo, T.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Abel, S. J.; Brown, W. O. J.; Williams, S.; Fochesatto, J.; Brioude, J.; Bower, K. N

    2011-01-21T23:59:59.000Z

    The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) was an international field program designed to make observations of poorly understood but critical components of the coupled climate system of the southeast Pacific. This region is characterized by strong coastal upwelling, the coolest SSTs in the tropical belt, and is home to the largest subtropical stratocumulus deck on Earth. The field intensive phase of VOCALS-REx took place during October and November 2008 and constitutes a critical part of a broader CLIVAR program (VOCALS) designed to develop and promote scientific activities leading to improved understanding, model simulations, and predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to interannual timescales. The other major components of VOCALS are a modeling program with a model hierarchy ranging from the local to global scales, and a suite of extended observations from regular research cruises, instrumented moorings, and satellites. The two central themes of VOCALS-REx focus upon (a) links between aerosols, clouds and precipitation and their impacts on marine stratocumulus radiative properties, and (b) physical and chemical couplings between the upper ocean and the lower atmosphere, including the role that mesoscale ocean eddies play. A set of hypotheses designed to be tested with the combined field, monitoring and modeling work in VOCALS is presented here. A further goal of VOCALS-REx is to provide datasets for the evaluation and improvement of large-scale numerical models. VOCALS-REx involved five research aircraft, two ships and two surface sites in northern Chile. We describe the instrument payloads and key mission strategies for these platforms and give a summary of the missions conducted.

  1. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  3. COMMERCIAL FISHERY DATA FROM A PROPOSED OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) SITE IN PUERTO RICO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryan, Constance J.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) sites toassessment: ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) program;operation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) power

  4. COMMERCIAL FISHERY DATA FROM A PROPOSED OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) SITE IN PUERTO RICO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryan, Constance J.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    at several proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)Environmental assessment: ocean thermal energy conversion (The operation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)

  5. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake. The in- crease in computer power in recent years and advances in numerical mesoscale models of both ocean Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed

  6. November 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    November 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 208 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS EARLY CENOZOIC EXTREME CLIMATES -------------------------------- Dr. Jack Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Leg Project Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery

  7. December 2001 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    December 2001 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 203 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS DRILLING AT THE EQUATORIAL -------------------------------- Dr. Jack Bauldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University. Acton Leg Project Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery

  8. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  9. Short Communication Three ocean state indices implemented in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ribes, Aurélien

    ), the tropical cyclone heat potential, showing the thermal energy available in the ocean to enhance or decreaseShort Communication Three ocean state indices implemented in the Mercator-Ocean operational suite L., and Soulat, F. 2008. Three ocean state indices implemented in the Mercator-Ocean operational suite. ­ ICES

  10. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  11. Forecast of criticality experiments and experimental programs needed to support nuclear operations in the United States of America: 1994--1999

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rutherford, D.

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Forecast is generated by the Chair of the Experiment Needs Identification Workgroup (ENIWG), with input from Department of Energy and the nuclear community. One of the current concerns addressed by ENIWG was the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board`s Recommendation 93-2. This Recommendation delineated the need for a critical experimental capability, which includes (1) a program of general-purpose experiments, (2) improving the information base, and (3) ongoing departmental programs. The nuclear community also recognizes the importance of criticality theory, which, as a stepping stone to computational analysis and safety code development, needs to be benchmarked against well-characterized critical experiments. A summary project of the Department`s needs with respect to criticality information includes (1) hands-on training, (2) criticality and nuclear data, (3) detector systems, (4) uranium- and plutonium-based reactors, and (5) accident analysis. The Workgroup has evaluated, prioritized, and categorized each proposed experiment and program. Transportation/Applications is a new category intended to cover the areas of storage, training, emergency response, and standards. This category has the highest number of priority-1 experiments (nine). Facilities capable of performing experiments include the Los Alamos Critical Experiment Facility (LACEF) along with Area V at Sandia National Laboratory. The LACEF continues to house the most significant collection of critical assemblies in the Western Hemisphere. The staff of this facility and Area V are trained and certified, and documentation is current. ENIWG will continue to work with the nuclear community to identify and prioritize experiments because there is an overwhelming need for critical experiments to be performed for basic research and code validation.

  12. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  13. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  14. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 104 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 104 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS NORWEGIAN SEA Olav Eldholm Co-Chief Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Station, Texas 77843-3469 Pni±ip o Rabinowitz Director Ocean Drilling Program Robert B Kidd Manager of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Louis E

  15. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 110 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 110 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS LESSER ANTILLES FOREARC J. Casey Moore Staff Science Representative, Leg 110 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843-3469 Philip D. Direct* Ocean Drilling Program Robert B. Kidd Manager of Science Operations Ocean

  16. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 109 PRELIMINARY REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 109 PRELIMINARY REPORT BARE ROCK DRILLING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE RIFT 109 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Station, TX 77843-3469 Philip D. Rabinowitz Director Ocean Drilling Program Robert B. Kidd Manager of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Louis E

  17. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  18. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  19. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  20. P h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast Improvement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    P h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane of hurricanes and other storms. The first step will be to demonstrate that the OSSE system can be successfully by the North Atlantic hurricane region and also covers the region of the North Atlantic warm pool

  1. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  2. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  3. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  4. Coastal ocean variability off the coast of Taiwan in response to typhoon Morakot : river forcing, atmospheric forcing, and cold dome dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Landry, Jennifer Jacobs

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The ocean is a complex, constantly changing, highly dynamical system. Prediction capabilities are constantly being improved in order to better understand and forecast ocean properties for applications in science, industry, ...

  5. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 207 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    3E3 Canada -------------------------------- Dr. Jack Bauldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations the international Ocean Drilling Program, which is managed by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., under contract Foundation (United States) Natural Environment Research Council (United Kingdom) Ocean Research Institute

  6. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  7. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  8. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  9. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  10. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  11. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  12. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  13. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  14. January 2003 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    January 2003 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 210 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS DRILLING THE NEWFOUNDLAND HALF OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND­IBERIA TRANSECT: THE FIRST CONJUGATE MARGIN DRILLING IN A NON-VOLCANIC RIFT Brian E. Tucholke Co Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery

  15. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  16. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION ECOLOGICAL DATA REPORT FROM 0. S. S. RESEARCHER IN GULF OF MEXICO, JULY 12-23, 1977.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quinby-Hunt, M.S.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    LBL-8945 GOTEC-01 OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION ECOLOGICALat Three Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)effect of an operating Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion plant

  17. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION ECOLOGICAL DATA REPORT FROM 0. S. S. RESEARCHER IN GULF OF MEXICO, JULY 12-23, 1977.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quinby-Hunt, M.S.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    LBL-8945 GOTEC-01 OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION ECOLOGICALThree Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Sites:an operating Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion plant were in-

  18. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 205 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 205 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS FLUID FLOW AND SUBDUCTION FLUXES ACROSS __________________ Dr. Jack Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College

  19. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 202 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 202 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS SOUTHEAST PACIFIC PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC TRANSECTS __________________ Dr. Jack Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College

  20. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 195 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 195 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS MARIANA CONVERGENT MARGIN/ WEST PHILIPPINE SEA Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station TX

  1. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 200 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 200 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS DRILLING AT THE H2O LONG-TERM SEAFLOOR Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station TX 77845-9547 USA

  2. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 199 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 199 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS PALEOGENE EQUATORIAL TRANSECT Dr. Mitchell __________________ Dr. Jack Baldauf Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Project Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive

  3. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 196 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 196 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS LOGGING WHILE DRILLING AND ADVANCED CORKS Deputy Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station TX 77845-9547 USA

  4. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  5. Comprehensive Ocean Drilling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Comprehensive Ocean Drilling Bibliography containing citations related to the Deep Sea Drilling Project, Ocean Drilling Program, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program, and International Ocean Discovery Program Last updated: May 2014 #12;Comprehensive Bibliography Comprehensive Ocean Drilling Bibliography

  6. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  7. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  8. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  9. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  11. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  12. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  13. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  14. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  15. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  16. Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Physical Sciences, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi for forecasting next-day hourly loads have been developed. Evaluated on data for the 6th year, the models give. INTRODUCTION Accurate load forecasting is a key requirement for the planning and economic and secure operation

  17. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  18. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  19. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  20. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  1. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  2. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  3. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  4. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  5. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  6. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  7. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prasanna, Viktor K.

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

  8. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely

  9. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  10. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  11. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  12. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  13. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  14. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  15. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a prime location for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC).resource, geothermal and ocean thermal energy are available

  17. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  18. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 136 PRELIMINARY REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Operations ODP/TAI Timothy J.G. Francis Deputy Director ODP/TAMU May 1991 #12;This informal report Ocean Drilling Program, which is managed by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., under contract Environment Research Council (United Kingdom) Ocean Research Institute of the University of Tokyo (Japan) Any

  19. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 132 ENGINEERING PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 132 ENGINEERING PROSPECTUS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC Mr. Michael A. Storms Supervisor of Development Engineering Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Manager of Engineering and Drilling Operations ODP/TAMU Louis E. Garrison Deputy Director ODP

  20. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 132 PRELIMINARY REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 132 PRELIMINARY REPORT ENGINEERING II: WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC Mr. Michael A. Storms Supervisor of Development Engineering Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University and Drilling Operations ODP/TAMU Timothy J.G. Francis Deputy Director ODP/TAMU September 1990 #12;This informal

  1. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 191 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 191 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS NORTHWEST PACIFIC SEISMIC OBSERVATORY AND HAMMER DRILL ENGINEERING TESTS Dr. Toshihiko Kanazawa Co-Chief Scientist Earthquake Research Institute Director of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College

  2. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 192 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 192 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS BASEMENT DRILLING OF THE ONTONG JAVA PLATEAU of Science Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station, TX Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station, TX 77845-9547 U.S.A. May 2000

  3. LEG 142 PRELIMINARY REPORT OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LEG 142 PRELIMINARY REPORT OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM ENGINEERING PRELIMINARY REPORT NO. 3 EAST PACIFIC RISE 1992 #12;OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 142 PRELIMINARY REPORT East Pacific Rise Dr. Rodey Batiza Co 96822 Mr. Michael A. Storms Operations Superintendent/ Assistant Manager of Engineering and Drilling

  4. Southern Ocean Iron Experiment (SOFex)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coale, Kenneth H.

    2005-07-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The Southern Ocean Iron Experiment (SOFeX) was an experiment decades in the planning. It's implementation was among the most complex ship operations that SIO has been involved in. The SOFeX field expedition was successful in creating and tracking two experimentally enriched areas of the Southern Ocean, one characterized by low silicic acid, one characterized by high silicic acid. Both experimental sites were replete with abundant nitrate. About 100 scientists were involved overall. The major findings of this study were significant in several ways: (1) The productivity of the southern ocean is limited by iron availability. (2) Carbon uptake and flux is therefore controlled by iron availability (3) In spite of low silicic acid, iron promotes non-silicious phytoplankton growth and the uptake of carbon dioxide. (4) The transport of fixed carbon from the surface layers proceeds with a C:N ratio that would indicate differential remineralization of nitrogen at shallow depths. (5) These finding have major implications for modeling of carbon export based on nitrate utilization. (6) The general results of the experiment indicate that, beyond other southern ocean enrichment experiments, iron inputs have a much wider impact of productivity and carbon cycling than previously demonstrated. Scientific presentations: Coale, K., Johnson, K, Buesseler, K., 2002. The SOFeX Group. Eos. Trans. AGU 83(47) OS11A-0199. Coale, K., Johnson, K. Buesseler, K., 2002. SOFeX: Southern Ocean Iron Experiments. Overview and Experimental Design. Eos. Trans. AGU 83 (47) OS22D-01. Buesseler, K.,et al. 2002. Does Iron Fertilization Enhance Carbon Sequestration? Particle flux results from the Southern Ocean Iron Experiment. Eos. Trans. AGU 83 (47), OS22D-09. Johnson, K. et al. 2002. Open Ocean Iron Fertilization Experiments From IronEx-I through SOFeX: What We Know and What We Still Need to Understand. Eos. Trans. AGU 83 (47), OS22D-12. Coale, K. H., 2003. Carbon and Nutrient Cycling During the Southern Ocean Iron Enrichment Experiments. Seattle, WA. Geological Society of America. Coale, K., 2003. Open Ocean Iron Enrichment Experiments: What they have told us, what they have not. American Society for Limnology and Oceanography and The Oceanography Society, Honolulu, February 2004. Coale, K., 2004. Recent Research from the Southern Ocean Iron Experiment (SOFeX), in Taking the Heat: What is the impact of ocean fertilization on climate and ocean ecology? Science of earth and sky. AAAS, February 12-16, Seattle, WA

  5. Implementation Plan for the Hybrid Ocean Modeling Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the atmosphere and cryosphere. The oceans operate in the climate system to transfer information (heat, saltImplementation Plan for the Hybrid Ocean Modeling Environment HOME R. Hallberg (NOAA/GFDL), A Recent advances in simulating the ocean through the use of generalized hybrid coordinate modeling

  6. Makai Ocean Engineering, Inc.'s Recent OTEC Activities at NELHA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frandsen, Jannette B.

    , and operator of an Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) power plant and heat exchanger test facility at NELHA

  7. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  8. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  9. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  10. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 166 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Director ODP/TAMU _____________________ Jack Baldauf Manager Science Operations ODP Ocean Drilling Program, which is managed by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., under contract of the University of Tokyo (Japan) National Science Foundation (United States) Natural Environment Research Council

  11. An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herrera, Michael Aaron

    2014-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).We find that the operational ensembles included in the TIGGE data set are highly efficient in capturing the space and magnitude of forecast uncertainties past about 72 hour forecast lead time. We also find that our...

  12. Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance Elke Lorenz1, Wolfgang Traunmller2, Gerald Steinmaurer2, Christian Kurz3,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance Elke Lorenz1, Wolfgang and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields and companies have been developing different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power

  13. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  14. Subscriber Services Complete Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    funded solar energy, then cut funding off, heavily funded electric vehicles, then cut funding off. There is a better understanding of the elements that are essential to operating a fusion power plant. Other fusion power plant in the United States. Fusion is, of course, just one of the energy technologies

  15. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  17. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  18. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  19. The International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and the Coastal Hazards Symposium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breivik, Řyvind; Babanin, Alexander; Horsburgh, Kevin

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

  20. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  1. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  2. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 142 ENGINEERING AND SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 142 ENGINEERING AND SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS EAST PACIFIC RISE Mr. Michael A. Storms Operations Superintendent/ Assistant Manager of Engineering and Drilling Operations Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Research Park 1000 Discovery Drive College Station, Texas 77845

  3. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  4. Coastal ocean margins program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The marine research program supported by the Office of Energy Research, Ecological Research Division, is focused to provide scientific information on major environmental issues facing development and expansion of most energy technologies and energy policy. These issues include waste disposal, siting/operations, and possible long term effects on global systems. The research is concentrated along the United States coastal margins where marine waters provide abundant food and resources while assimilating discharges from atmospheric, terrestrial, and aquatic sources. The program focuses on the formation and transport of particles within the waters of the continental shelf and the fate of these particles, whether on the shelf, on the slope, or in the open ocean. The program is conducted with multidisciplinary teams of researchers who investigate water mass movements, biological productivity, and naturally forming particles, as well as contaminant transport, to develop a clear understanding of the exchanges of contaminants and other materials that take place between continental shelf and open ocean waters. Seventy-five percent of the projects are funded to university grantees and twenty-five percent to National Laboratories.

  5. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  6. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  7. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  8. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  9. Ocean and Sea Ice SAF ASCAT NWP Ocean Calibration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stoffelen, Ad

    Ocean and Sea Ice SAF ASCAT NWP Ocean Calibration Jeroen Verspeek Anton Verhoef Ad Stoffelen Version 1.5 2011-03-16 #12;ASCAT NWP Ocean Calibration Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................3 2 NWP Ocean Calibration

  10. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  11. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  12. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  13. CHARACTERIZING DANGEROUS WAVES FOR OCEAN WAVE ENERGY CONVERTER SURVIVABILITY Justin Hovland

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haller, Merrick

    CHARACTERIZING DANGEROUS WAVES FOR OCEAN WAVE ENERGY CONVERTER SURVIVABILITY Justin Hovland ABSTRACT Ocean Wave Energy Converters (OWECs) operating on the water surface are subject to storms at station 139. Keywords: wave energy, survivability, breaking waves, joint distribution, OWEC INTRODUCTION

  14. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  15. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  16. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  17. Ocean Engineering Development Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wood, Stephen L.

    Ocean Engineering Hydrofoil Development Team Justin Eickmeier Mirela Dalanaj Jason Gray Matt test bed for future hydrofoil designs. 5) To create future student interest in the Ocean Engineering Efficiency and Acceleration. #12;Design Team Justin Eickmeier Team Leader Major: Ocean Engineering, Junior

  18. Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting through Visualization of Spatial Diffusion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brock, David

    Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting. Schuster, Stuart J. Allen, and David L. Brock Company Contact Several companies are interested in this area to implement an operational system for improving new product forecasting in practice. Is · Innovative thinking

  19. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  20. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  1. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  2. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  3. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  5. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  6. Trajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Yonggang Liu, Robert H. Weisberg, Chuanmin Hu, and Lianyuan Zheng

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meyers, Steven D.

    offshore oil spill in U.S. history. This spill, which continued for 3 months, presented an unprecedented spills in many ways. Crude oil was introduced at the ocean bottom in 1500 m of water, a depthTrajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Yonggang Liu, Robert H

  7. K. -H. Seo J. -K. E. Schemm C. Jones S. Moorthi Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Charles

    K. -H. Seo Ć J. -K. E. Schemm Ć C. Jones Ć S. Moorthi Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal, whereas it is more verti- cally aligned over the Indian Ocean (Sperber 2003). K. -H. Seo (&) Ć J. -K. E-mail: kyong-hwan.seo@noaa.gov Fax: +1-301-7638125 C. Jones Institute for Computational Earth System Science

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  9. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 4 report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.; Hadder, G.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

    1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Navy's Maritime Strategy is designed to maintain military readiness and the ability to operate in all major theaters of the world. Mobility fuels required for sea, air, and land operations are vital components of the Navy's peacetime and wartime strategies. The purpose of the Navy's Mobility Fuels Technology Program is to understand fuel supply and fuel property impacts on Navy equipment performance and fleet readiness and operations. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has assisted the Department of Navy in developing and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel availability, quality, and relative price, as well as evaluating options to increase fuel supplies during world oil supply disruptions. Publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the foundation of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The NMFFS was enhanced as ORNL reviewed data on world oil reserves, production and prices, trends in crude oil and refined product quality, and changes in refinery process technology. The system was used to analyze the availability, quality, and relative price of military fuels that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refining regions under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and two hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in the year 1995. 25 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  13. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  14. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  15. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 124E ENGINEERING PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 124E ENGINEERING PROSPECTUS PHILIPPINE SEA Michael A. Storms Supr. of Development Engineering Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Station, Texas 77840 Philip D. Rabinowitz Director ODP/TAMU- Barry W. Harding Manager of Engineering and Drilling Operations ODP/TAMU Louis

  16. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  17. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM 2011 OCEAN DRILLING CITATION REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM 2011 OCEAN DRILLING CITATION REPORT covering citations related to the Deep Sea Drilling Project, Ocean Drilling Program, and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program from Geo Drilling Program Publication Services September 2011 #12;OVERVIEW OF THE OCEAN DRILLING CITATION DATABASE

  18. NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used to protect hardware operating in high temperature environments, such as combustor liners and gas turbine

  19. Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murtagh, Fionn

    electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

  20. Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

  1. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  2. Short-term forecasting through intermittent assimilation of data from Taiwan and mainland China coastal radars

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Ming

    ; published 29 March 2012. [1] Radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) data from eight coastal operational, but the benefit is mostly lost within the first hour of forecast. Assimilating data from a single Doppler radar with a good coverage of the typhoon inner core region is also quite effective, but it takes one more cycle

  3. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia #12;316 ICEF FINAL REPORT - 30 MAY 2011 International Commission Warner Marzocchi Chief Scientist, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy Gerassimos

  4. The Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Coast, Dom. Rep. Dom. Rep. 1946 1946 40 40 116 116 6 6 7.3 7.3 Hispaniola Hispaniola - - Puerto Rico Puerto Rico 1918 1918 17 17 2.4 2.4 - - 12.1 12.1 7.5 7.5 Puerto Rico Puerto...

  5. Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victor M Zavala

    2009-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 4, 2009 ... We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more ... The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather ...

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  7. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  8. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  11. On the reconstruction of seasonal oceanic precipitation in the presatellite era

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington, Richard

    satellites and the processing of data from dedicated sensors (operating at infrared and microwave wavelengths have evaluated the capabilities and limitations of reconstructing oceanic precipitation using land

  12. OBSERVATIONS ON JUVENILE OCEANIC SKIPJACK (KATSUWONUS PELAMIS) FROM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OBSERVATIONS ON JUVENILE OCEANIC SKIPJACK (KATSUWONUS PELAMIS) FROM HAWAIIAN WATERS AND SIERRA SKIPJACK (KATSUWONUS PELAMIS) FROM HAWAIIAN WATERS AND SIERRA MACKEREL (SCOMBEROMORUS SIERRA) FROM September 1948. While operating in Hawaiian waters, seven juvenile KatsllwollllS pelamis (Linnaeus) 1758

  13. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  14. Arnold Schwarzenegger CALIFORNIA OCEAN WAVE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor CALIFORNIA OCEAN WAVE ENERGY ASSESSMENT Prepared For: California this report as follows: Previsic, Mirko. 2006. California Ocean Wave Energy Assessment. California Energy Systems Integration · Transportation California Ocean Wave Energy Assessment is the final report

  15. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  16. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  17. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  18. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  20. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  1. Ocean General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

    2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

  2. Mesoscale ocean dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    mHolm, D.; Alber, M.; Bayly, B.; Camassa, R.; Choi, W.; Cockburn, B.; Jones, D.; Lifschitz, A.; Margolin, L.; Marsden, L.; Nadiga, B.; Poje, A.; Smolarkiewicz, P. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Levermore, D. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States)

    1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ocean is a very complex nonlinear system that exhibits turbulence on essentially all scales, multiple equilibria, and significant intrinsic variability. Modeling the ocean`s dynamics at mesoscales is of fundamental importance for long-time-scale climate predictions. A major goal of this project has been to coordinate, strengthen, and focus the efforts of applied mathematicians, computer scientists, computational physicists and engineers (at LANL and a consortium of Universities) in a joint effort addressing the issues in mesoscale ocean dynamics. The project combines expertise in the core competencies of high performance computing and theory of complex systems in a new way that has great potential for improving ocean models now running on the Connection Machines CM-200 and CM-5 and on the Cray T3D.

  3. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    thermal energy conversion (OTEC). The use of crops and treesbe provided >uind, :t1llal, OTEC, several new Electricity, ngeothermal, ocean thermal (OTEC), solar thermal (STEC), and

  4. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  5. A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and communications, in Ocean Engineering Planning and Designmicropro?ler, Engineering in the Ocean Environment, Ocean ’engineering diagnostic data will be transmitted. 5. GLOBAL OCEAN

  6. Operation and Maintenance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    will be purchased in weekly andor monthly blocks when the market indicates a shortage or pricing becomes erratic. Forecasted Energy Prices Forecasted Energy Prices (Excel File)...

  7. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  8. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  9. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  10. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  11. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  12. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  13. Simple ocean carbon cycle models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldeira, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hoffert, M.I. [New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Earth System Sciences; Siegenthaler, U. [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. fuer Physik

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Simple ocean carbon cycle models can be used to calculate the rate at which the oceans are likely to absorb CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. For problems involving steady-state ocean circulation, well calibrated ocean models produce results that are very similar to results obtained using general circulation models. Hence, simple ocean carbon cycle models may be appropriate for use in studies in which the time or expense of running large scale general circulation models would be prohibitive. Simple ocean models have the advantage of being based on a small number of explicit assumptions. The simplicity of these ocean models facilitates the understanding of model results.

  14. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  15. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  17. arctic petroleum operators: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    operations waste water injection and disposal wells, geothermal resource development, and EORCO2 Southern California, University of 66 A Holocene record of changing Arctic Ocean...

  18. Study of domestic social and economic impacts of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) commercial development. Volume II. Industry profiles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1981-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Econoimc profiles of the industries most affected by the construction, deployment, and operation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) powerplants are presented. Six industries which will contribute materials and/or components to the construction of OTEC plants have been identified and are profiled here. These industries are: steel industry, concrete industry, titanium metal industry, fabricated structural metals industry, fiber glass-reinforced plastics industry, and electrical transmission cable industry. The economic profiles for these industries detail the industry's history, its financial and economic characteristics, its technological and production traits, resource constraints that might impede its operation, and its relation to OTEC. Some of the historical data collected and described in the profile include output, value of shipments, number of firms, prices, employment, imports and exports, and supply-demand forecasts. For most of the profiled industries, data from 1958 through 1980 were examined. In addition, profiles are included on the sectors of the economy which will actualy construct, deploy, and supply the OTEC platforms.

  19. Flexible ocean upwelling pipe

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Person, Abraham (Los Alamitos, CA)

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In an ocean thermal energy conversion facility, a cold water riser pipe is releasably supported at its upper end by the hull of the floating facility. The pipe is substantially vertical and has its lower end far below the hull above the ocean floor. The pipe is defined essentially entirely of a material which has a modulus of elasticity substantially less than that of steel, e.g., high density polyethylene, so that the pipe is flexible and compliant to rather than resistant to applied bending moments. The position of the lower end of the pipe relative to the hull is stabilized by a weight suspended below the lower end of the pipe on a flexible line. The pipe, apart from the weight, is positively buoyant. If support of the upper end of the pipe is released, the pipe sinks to the ocean floor, but is not damaged as the length of the line between the pipe and the weight is sufficient to allow the buoyant pipe to come to a stop within the line length after the weight contacts the ocean floor, and thereafter to float submerged above the ocean floor while moored to the ocean floor by the weight. The upper end of the pipe, while supported by the hull, communicates to a sump in the hull in which the water level is maintained below the ambient water level. The sump volume is sufficient to keep the pipe full during heaving of the hull, thereby preventing collapse of the pipe.

  20. Initial Value Predictability of Intrinsic Oceanic Modes and Implications for Decadal Prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the artclimate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of tbe predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.

  1. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  2. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  3. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  4. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naĂŻve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  5. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  6. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  7. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  8. Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

    2012-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  10. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  11. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  13. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  14. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns MarĂ­a J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  15. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Joăo Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  17. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  19. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  20. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  1. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    process unit is not operating (down) is specified. If the process will be operating for the entire period, the word "LP" is displayed. PRODUCTION SCHEDULE 2/20/92 - 5/20/82 UNIT 1 A UP 2 B UP D 2./20-3./15 D 4.19. TO- 3 C D 2./20-3./15 D 4..../9. TO- 4 D 5 E D 4./15 TO- UP 6 F D 2./20-2./21 7 G UP 9 I UP 8 H D 2./20-3./13 D 3./27 TO- 10 J 11 K D 2./20 TO- 12 L UP 13 M UP UP 15 0 14 N UP D 2./20-2./24 D 3./7.-3./17 D 3./28 TO- 16 P 17 G D 4./1. TO- 19 R II 3...

  2. Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Report about the Ocean Thermal...

  3. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    M.D. (editor) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Draftin Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technology haveThe Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) 2rogrammatic

  4. Thirty-year solid waste generation forecast for facilities at SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The information supplied by this 30-year solid waste forecast has been compiled as a source document to the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (WMEIS). The WMEIS will help to select a sitewide strategic approach to managing present and future Savannah River Site (SRS) waste generated from ongoing operations, environmental restoration (ER) activities, transition from nuclear production to other missions, and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) programs. The EIS will support project-level decisions on the operation of specific treatment, storage, and disposal facilities within the near term (10 years or less). In addition, the EIS will provide a baseline for analysis of future waste management activities and a basis for the evaluation of the specific waste management alternatives. This 30-year solid waste forecast will be used as the initial basis for the EIS decision-making process. The Site generates and manages many types and categories of waste. With a few exceptions, waste types are divided into two broad groups-high-level waste and solid waste. High-level waste consists primarily of liquid radioactive waste, which is addressed in a separate forecast and is not discussed further in this document. The waste types discussed in this solid waste forecast are sanitary waste, hazardous waste, low-level mixed waste, low-level radioactive waste, and transuranic waste. As activities at SRS change from primarily production to primarily decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration, the volume of each waste s being managed will change significantly. This report acknowledges the changes in Site Missions when developing the 30-year solid waste forecast.

  5. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  6. GECCO Ocean Energy System Luis Maristany, Nicole Waters, Billy W. Wells Jr., Mario Suarez, Richard Gestewitz, Alexej Wiest,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wood, Stephen L.

    GECCO Ocean Energy System Luis Maristany, Nicole Waters, Billy W. Wells Jr., Mario Suarez, Richard and to invent ways of harvesting these energies by designing new systems. The ocean is a major resource for all Operation) is a wave energy converter that extracts kinetic energy from ocean waves using a rugged

  7. Nuclear Engineering and Design 236 (2006) 16411647 Basic factors to forecast maintenance cost and failure processes for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Popova, Elmira

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . The importance of equipment reliability and prediction in the commercial nuclear power plant is presented along a Bayesian model for the failure rate of the equipment, which is input to the cost forecasting model Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC): failure times, repair costs, equipment downtime

  8. Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    . Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser, forecast consumers, water managers and reservoir operators, have difficulty interpreting such products in a risk management framework A. Sankarasubramanian,1 Upmanu Lall,2 Francisco Assis Souza Filho,3

  9. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  10. Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan (Massachusetts)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Massachusetts Ocean Act of 2008 required the state’s Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs to develop a comprehensive ocean management plan for the state by the end of 2009. That plan...

  11. Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Released in the STEO June 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

  12. Ninth Annual Ocean Renewable Energy Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The future of clean, renewable ocean wave energy will be discussed in depth at the 2014 Ocean Renewable Energy Conference.

  13. 6, 51375162, 2006 Oceanic ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ACPD 6, 5137­5162, 2006 Oceanic ozone deposition velocity C. W. Fairall et al. Title Page Abstract Discussions Water-side turbulence enhancement of ozone deposition to the ocean C. W. Fairall1 , D. Helmig2 , L. Fairall (chris.fairall@noaa.gov) 5137 #12;ACPD 6, 5137­5162, 2006 Oceanic ozone deposition velocity C. W

  14. composition of putative oceans on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Treiman, Allan H.

    point · Warm/hot ocean · Water-saturated atmosphere · Consumption of liquid water · hydration: continents and oceans Hot oceanic water Quartz Hydrated, oxidized rock Partially altered rock Unaltered rock · CO2, ~0.3-0.9 (volume fraction) · H2O, ~0.01-0.6 · N2, ~0.02-0.15 · High temperature corresponds

  15. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  17. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  18. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  19. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  20. A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    transports from ocean to land and global energy ?ows inof Earth energy imbal- ance, ocean warming, and thermostericthe ther- mal energy of the ocean, it remains a challenging

  1. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  2. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  3. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  4. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  5. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  6. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  7. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  8. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  9. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  10. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  11. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  12. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean: National Science Foundation _______________________________ David L. Divins Director, Ocean Drilling

  13. Ocean dynamics and thermodynamics in the tropical Indo- Pacific region

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Drushka, Kyla

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Pacific Oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean associated with thethe western equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. , 96,

  14. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  15. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  16. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  17. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  18. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  20. Engineering in the service of science; construction of a cabled ocean observatory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frandsen, Jannette B.

    Engineering in the service of science; construction of a cabled ocean observatory Mr. Peter Phibbs for maintenance can quickly make a system uneconomic. Peter Phibbs was project manager for the $75M construction ocean observatory, and went into operation fifteen months ago. The infrastructure demonstrates not only

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy:Nanowire Solar EnergyKambaraor 1-888-246-2460NationalAtlanticNOAA

  2. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean. ______________________________ David L. Divins Director, Ocean Drilling Programs Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Inc. Washington, D

  3. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean. _______________________________ David L. Divins Director, Ocean Drilling Programs Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Inc. Washington, D

  4. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean _______________________________ David L. Divins Director, Ocean Drilling Programs Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Inc. Washington, D

  5. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M. D.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Assessment. 1978. Renewable ocean energy sources, Part I.on aquaculture and ocean energy systems for the county of310, the Ocean the Ocean Energy Thermal Energy Conversion

  6. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  7. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  8. 2014 Statistical Consulting Co-Op Co-Operative Education Position Description

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shepp, Larry

    forecasting and Six Sigma training. Application areas include operations, research and development, marketingPont Six Sigma certification possible). DuPont at a Glance: DuPont is a global Fortune 100 company

  9. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  10. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  11. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL OCEAN RESEARCH PLAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ................................................................................. 24 #12;v ASMFC Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission BOEM Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BMPMID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL OCEAN RESEARCH PLAN SEPTEMBER 2012 Sea Grant Mid-Atlantic Ocean Research #12;MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL OCEAN RESEARCH PLAN SEPTEMBER 2012 Sea Grant Mid-Atlantic Ocean Research

  12. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  13. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  14. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  15. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  16. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  17. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  18. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  19. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  20. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  3. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  4. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  5. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  6. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  7. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  8. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  9. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in Electrical Engineering (Applied Ocean Sciences) byElectrical Engineering (Applied Ocean Sciences) University

  10. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  11. ARM - Oceanic Properties

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadap Documentation TDMADAP : XDCnarrowbandheat fluxChinaNews : AMFAlaskaNews from theOceanic

  12. Ocean | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluatingGroup |JilinLuOpenNorth AmericaNorthwestOakdale ElectricOcean Flow

  13. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  14. Applied Physics Laboratory College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    the effects of ocean surface waves on remote sensing techniques and air-sea fluxes of momentum, heat, and gas, and ice, Polar Science Center research- ers have established a year-round observatory in the central basin are especially critical to a Navy commander operating in shallow water. Employing a trained artificial neural

  15. Ocean 420 Physical Processes in the Ocean Project 6: Waves

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, LuAnne

    generates an upwelling internal wave at 30N with a positive deviation in interface height of size 30m. What long would it take for this internal wave to propagate to 40N? c) At the same time that the wave passesOcean 420 Physical Processes in the Ocean Project 6: Waves Due: Thursday, March 1 1. A two layer

  16. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  17. Pelagic Polychaetes of the Pacific Ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dales, K Phillips

    1957-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean CLAPARtDE,E. 1868. LesPolyc'haetes of the Pacific Ocean KINBERG, J. G. H. 1866.Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean TREADWELL, A. L. 1906.

  18. Strong wind forcing of the ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zedler, Sarah E.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    near-inertial energy in an eddying ocean channel model. Geo-maximum integrated kinetic energy when the ocean was forcedto the the transfer of energy in the ocean from large scales

  19. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Presented at the 7th Ocean Energy Conference, Washington,Power Applications, Division of Ocean Energy Systems, UnitedSands, M.D. (editor) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)

  20. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    M.D. (editor) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Draftof ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. Depart~June 1-11, 1980 OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC

  1. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    M.D. (editor) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Draftr:he comnercialization of ocean thermal energy conversionJune 1-11, 1980 OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC

  2. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sands, M.D. (editor) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)r:he comnercialization of ocean thermal energy conversionJune 1-11, 1980 OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC

  3. Autonomous observations of the ocean biological carbon pump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bishop, James K.B.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction of the substantial biologically mediated carbon flows in a rapidly changing and acidifying ocean requires model simulations informed by observations of key carbon cycle processes on the appropriate space and time scales. From 2000 to 2004, the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) supported the development of the first low-cost fully-autonomous ocean profiling Carbon Explorers that demonstrated that year-round real-time observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration and sedimentation could be achieved in the world's ocean. NOPP also initiated the development of a sensor for particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) suitable for operational deployment across all oceanographic platforms. As a result, PIC profile characterization that once required shipboard sample collection and shipboard or shore based laboratory analysis, is now possible to full ocean depth in real time using a 0.2W sensor operating at 24 Hz. NOPP developments further spawned US DOE support to develop the Carbon Flux Explorer, a free-vehicle capable of following hourly variations of particulate inorganic and organic carbon sedimentation from near surface to kilometer depths for seasons to years and capable of relaying contemporaneous observations via satellite. We have demonstrated the feasibility of real time - low cost carbon observations which are of fundamental value to carbon prediction and when further developed, will lead to a fully enhanced global carbon observatory capable of real time assessment of the ocean carbon sink, a needed constraint for assessment of carbon management policies on a global scale.

  4. HOW TO COOK OCEAN PERCH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , is an excellent food fish with firm fle h. When cooked, the meat is white and flaky, with a delicate flavor. Ocean to the consumer until 1935. At that time, the indlu;try began experimenting with filleting and freezing ocean pel

  5. November 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    November 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 209 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS DRILLING MANTLE PERIDOTITE ALONG Drilling Program Texas A&M University 1000 Discovery Drive College Station TX 77845-9547 USA -------------------------------- Dr. D. Jay Miller Leg Project Manager and Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University

  6. The Plastic Ocean Michael Gonsior

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boynton, Walter R.

    The Plastic Ocean Michael Gonsior Bonnie Monteleone, William Cooper, Jennifer O'Keefe, Pamela Seaton, and Maureen Conte #12;#12;#12;Plastic does not biodegrade it photo-degrades breaking down is the plastic cheese wrap? Unfortunately, marine creatures mistake plastics in the ocean for food #12

  7. February 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    February 2002 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 204 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS DRILLING GAS HYDRATES ON HYDRATE, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland) Institut National des Sciences de l States) Natural Environment Research Council (United Kingdom) Ocean Research Institute of the University

  8. California Small Hydropower and Ocean Wave Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California Small Hydropower and Ocean Wave Energy Resources IN SUPPORT OF THE 2005 INTEGRATED....................................................................................................................... 9 Ocean Wave Energy............................................................................................................. 20 Wave Energy Conversion Technology

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  11. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  12. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  13. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  14. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  15. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  16. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  17. Forecasting outbreaks of the douglas-fir tussock moth from lower crown cocoon samples. Forest Service research paper

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mason, R.R.; Scott, D.W.; Paul, H.G.

    1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A predictive technique using a simple linear regression was developed to forecast the midcrown density of small tussock moth larvae from estimates of cocoon density in the previous generation. The regression estimator was derived from field samples of cocoons and larvae taken from a wide range of nonoutbreak tussock moth populations. The accuracy of the predictions was demonstrated on an operational basis in an independent tussock moth outbreak.

  18. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  19. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  20. "Towards Optics-Based Measurements in Ocean Observatories"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    /JPSS ­ UAV ­ Ocean optics, Biological ­ Laser penetration New opportunity · Insitu Sensors ­ (Gliders"Towards Optics-Based Measurements in Ocean Observatories" "Ocean Observatories Contributions to Ocean Models and Data Assimilation For Ecosystems" Ocean Optics 2012 Glasgow Scotland Robert Arnone

  1. Net Interchange Schedule Forecasting of Electric Power Exchange for RTO/ISOs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferryman, Thomas A.; Haglin, David J.; Vlachopoulou, Maria; Yin, Jian; Shen, Chao; Tuffner, Francis K.; Lin, Guang; Zhou, Ning; Tong, Jianzhong

    2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Neighboring independent system operators (ISOs) exchange electric power to enable efficient and reliable operation of the grid. Net interchange (NI) schedule is the sum of the transactions (in MW) between an ISO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the amount of actual NI can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents results of a preliminary investigation into various methods of prediction that may result in improved prediction accuracy. The methods studied are linear regression, forward regression, stepwise regression, and support vector machine (SVM) regression. The work to date is not yet conclusive. The hope is to explore the effectiveness of other prediction methods and apply all methods to at least one new data set. This should enable more confidence in the conclusions.

  2. Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    National Research Council

    2011-04-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The United States has jurisdiction over 3.4 million square miles of ocean�an expanse greater than the land area of all fifty states combined. This vast marine area offers researchers opportunities to investigate the ocean�s role in an integrated Earth system, but also presents challenges to society, including damaging tsunamis and hurricanes, industrial accidents, and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The 2010 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon oil spill and 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami are vivid reminders that a broad range of infrastructure is needed to advance our still-incomplete understanding of the ocean. The National Research Council (NRC)�s Ocean Studies Board was asked by the National Science and Technology Council�s Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, comprised of 25 U.S. government agencies, to examine infrastructure needs for ocean research in the year 2030. This request reflects concern, among a myriad of marine issues, over the present state of aging and obsolete infrastructure, insufficient capacity, growing technological gaps, and declining national leadership in marine technological development; issues brought to the nation�s attention in 2004 by the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy. A 15-member committee of experts identified four themes that encompass 32 future ocean research questions�enabling stewardship of the environment, protecting life and property, promoting economic vitality, and increasing fundamental scientific understanding. Many of the questions in the report (e.g., sea level rise, sustainable fisheries, the global water cycle) reflect challenging, multidisciplinary science questions that are clearly relevant today, and are likely to take decades of effort to solve. As such, U.S. ocean research will require a growing suite of ocean infrastructure for a range of activities, such as high quality, sustained time series observations or autonomous monitoring at a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, a coordinated national plan for making future strategic investments becomes an imperative to address societal needs. Such a plan should be based upon known priorities and should be reviewed every 5-10 years to optimize the federal investment. The committee examined the past 20 years of technological advances and ocean infrastructure investments (such as the rise in use of self-propelled, uncrewed, underwater autonomous vehicles), assessed infrastructure that would be required to address future ocean research questions, and characterized ocean infrastructure trends for 2030. One conclusion was that ships will continue to be essential, especially because they provide a platform for enabling other infrastructure � autonomous and remotely operated vehicles; samplers and sensors; moorings and cabled systems; and perhaps most importantly, the human assets of scientists, technical staff, and students. A comprehensive, long-term research fleet plan should be implemented in order to retain access to the sea. The current report also calls for continuing U.S. capability to access fully and partially ice-covered seas; supporting innovation, particularly the development of biogeochemical sensors; enhancing computing and modeling capacity and capability; establishing broadly accessible data management facilities; and increasing interdisciplinary education and promoting a technically-skilled workforce. The committee also provided a framework for prioritizing future investment in ocean infrastructure. They recommend that development, maintenance, or replacement of ocean research infrastructure assets should be prioritized in terms of societal benefit, with particular consideration given to usefulness for addressing important science questions; affordability, efficiency, and longevity; and ability to contribute to other missions or applications. These criteria are the foundation for prioritizing ocean research infrastructure investments by estimating

  3. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  4. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  5. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  8. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  9. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  10. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  11. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  12. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  13. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  14. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  15. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  16. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  19. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  20. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  1. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  2. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  3. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  4. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  5. n CAPABILITY STATEMENT Centre for Ocean Engineering,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liley, David

    n CAPABILITY STATEMENT Centre for Ocean Engineering, Science and Technology Overview The Centre for Ocean Engineering, Science and Technology (COEST) is dedicated to the ocean, the most fascinating and the most challenging environment for human endeavour. COEST brings together the disciplines of ocean

  6. 4, 709732, 2007 Ice-shelf ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    OSD 4, 709­732, 2007 Ice-shelf ­ ocean interactions at Fimbul Ice Shelf M. R. Price Title Page published in Ocean Science Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Ocean Science Ice-shelf ­ ocean interactions at Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica from oxygen isotope ratio measurements M. R. Price 1

  7. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 165 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 165 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS CARIBBEAN OCEAN HISTORY AND THE CRETACEOUS Scientist, Leg 165 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Research Park 1000 Discovery Drive College of any portion requires the written consent of the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A&M University

  8. INSTRUCTIONS INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM (IODP)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM (IODP) MANUSCRIPT AND PHOTOGRAPH COPYRIGHT, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program, 1000 Discovery Drive, College Station, Texas 77845, USA A signed copyright of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program or any other publications of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program. Author

  9. Heat Content Changes in the Pacific Ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frandsen, Jannette B.

    Heat Content Changes in the Pacific Ocean The Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Cli- mate (ATOC assimilating ocean observations and changes expected from surface heat fluxes as measured by the daily National are a result of advection of heat by ocean currents. We calculate that the most likely cause of the discrepancy

  10. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 136 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and lithosphere evolution, earthquake source mechanisms, oceanic crustal structure, tsunami warning and monitoring

  11. Ocean Studies Board annual report 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Activities of the Ocean Studies Board fall into three broad categories: promoting the health of ocean sciences in the United States, encouraging the protection and wise use of the ocean and its resources, and applying ocean science to improve national security.

  12. Ocean Studies Board annual report 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Activities of the Ocean Studies Board fall into three broad categories: promoting the health of ocean sciences in the United States, encouraging the protection and wise use of the ocean and its resources, and applying ocean science to improve national security.

  13. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  14. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  15. Dept. of Ocean and Resources Engineering School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ) Only Indian and Pacific Ocean GlobalEEZ100km from shorelineAtlantic OceanIndo-Pacific #12;OTEC MODELINGDept. of Ocean and Resources Engineering School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology of deep layers, Increase in THC strength 1) Global 2) EEZ 3)100km from Shoreline 4) Only Atlantic Ocean 5

  16. Penetration of solar radiation in the upper ocean: A numerical model for oceanic and coastal waters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Zhongping

    Penetration of solar radiation in the upper ocean: A numerical model for oceanic and coastal waters in the upper ocean, the vertical distribution of solar radiation (ESR) in the shortwave domain plays (2005), Penetration of solar radiation in the upper ocean: A numerical model for oceanic and coastal

  17. Northerly surface wind events over the eastern North Pacific Ocean : spatial distribution, seasonality, atmospheric circulation, and forcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taylor, Stephen V.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2006), Integrated forecast and reservoir management (INFORM)2004), Integrated forecast and reservoir management (

  18. Mercury in the Anthropocene Ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lamborg, Carl

    The toxic metal mercury is present only at trace levels in the ocean, but it accumulates in fish at concentrations high enough to pose a threat to human and environmental health. Human activity has dramatically altered the ...

  19. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  20. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  1. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  2. A new study by Rutgers Co-operative Extension of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Robert M.

    A new study by Rutgers Co- operative Extension of Ocean County and Georgian Court University that the rod penetrates into the soil is measured and recorded. The deeper the depth, the less compacted

  3. The Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab, a unit of the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Robert M.

    Observing System (IOOS). This partnership, as well as others with entities around the world, place R.U. COOL sampling of the coastal ocean is accomplished through: (1) the acquisition of data streams from U an on-campus operations center, providing an unprecedented view of the coastal ocean. Developing New

  4. Open ocean DMS air/sea fluxes over the eastern South Pacific Ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marandino, C. A; De Bruyn, W. J; Miller, S. D; Saltzman, E. S

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    over the North Pacific Ocean, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. ,air/sea fluxes over S. Pacific Ocean References Asher, W.in the equa- torial Pacific Ocean ( 1982 to 1996): Evidence

  5. Operations & Maintenance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations and Maintenance Operations OASIS: OATI (Note: this site is not hosted by Western and requires a digital certificate and login for full access.) Contact Information...

  6. Operations & Maintenance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rates Operations & Maintenance Operations OASIS: WACM (Note: this site is not hosted by Western and requires a digital certificate and login for full access.) wesTTrans Common...

  7. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graves, Stephen C.

    50 Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999 1523 policy we characterize the inventory random variable and use this to find the safety stock requirements, inventory managers often rely on forecasts based on a time series of prior demand, such as a weighted moving

  8. Submitted to Operations Research manuscript (Please, provide the mansucript number!)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Powell, Warren B.

    and solve the problem of making advance energy commitments for wind farms in the presence of a storage the forecast of electricity generated from the wind farm is uniformly distributed, but with a storage device. Grid operators need some ability to project energy from wind farms in the future, but making

  9. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean. _______________________________ Steven R. Bohlen President, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Division Executive Director, Ocean Drilling

  10. INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INTEGRATED OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM United States Implementing Organization Consortium for Ocean. Bohlen President, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Division Executive Director, Ocean Drilling Programs

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1 environmental of the Seventh Ocean Energy Michel, H. B. ,of the Seventh Ocean Energy Conference, Washington, DC.of the Seventh Ocean Energy Conference. Sponsored by the

  12. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Presented at the 7th Ocean Energy Conference, Washington,Power Applications, Division of Ocean Energy Systems, UnitedM.D. (editor). 1980. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Draft

  13. Dynamics of a Submesoscale Surface Ocean Density Front

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abramczyk, Marshall

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    dominant portion of the ocean energy [Capet et al. , 2008a].are important for the ocean energy budget and biogeochemicalrelevance for the ocean energy budget and nutrient

  14. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1 environmental Seventh Ocean Energy Michel, H. B. , and M.of the Seventh Ocean Energy Conference, Washington, DC.1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC)

  15. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC) plants byand M.D. Sands. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilotfield of ocean thermal energy conversion discharges. I~. L.

  16. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M. D.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. DOE.Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion. A preliminaryof the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilotCommercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants byof the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,

  18. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1980 :. i l OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: ENVIRONMENTALM.D. (editor). 1980. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion DraftDevelopment Plan. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. U.S. DOE

  19. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants byof the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot

  20. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M. D.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. DOE.Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion. A preliminaryCompany. Ocean thermal energy conversion mission analysis

  1. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Potential Environmental Impacts and Fisheries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hawai'i at Manoa, University of

    Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Potential Environmental Impacts and Fisheries Christina M Comfort Institute #12;Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) · Renewable energy ­ ocean thermal gradient · Large

  2. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC) plants byfield of ocean thermal energy conversion discharges. I~. L.II of the Sixth Ocean Thermal Energy conversion Conference.

  3. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants bySands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilotof the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Biofouling,

  4. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M. D.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Biofouling,development of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plant-impact assessment ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)

  5. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC) plants bySands. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot plantof the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Biofouling,

  6. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC)field of ocean thermal energy conversion discharges. I~. L.II of the Sixth Ocean Thermal Energy conversion Conference.

  7. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)of the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot

  8. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M.Dale

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    M.D. (editor). 1980. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Draft1980 :. i l OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: ENVIRONMENTALDevelopment Plan. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. U.S. DOE

  9. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sands, M. D.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for the commercialization of ocean thermal energy conversionE. Hathaway. Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion. AElectric Company. Ocean thermal energy conversion mission

  10. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC)the intermediate field of ocean thermal energy conversionII of the Sixth Ocean Thermal Energy conversion Conference.

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)of the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,and M.D. Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)

  12. North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh; Mejia, John; Hatchett, Benjamin; McCord, Travis; McLean, Julie; Dorman, Clive

    2013-04-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.

  13. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  14. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  15. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  16. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  17. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  18. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  19. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  1. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  2. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  3. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  4. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  5. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  6. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  7. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  8. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  9. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  10. Mechanistic models of oceanic nitrogen fixation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monteiro, Fanny

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Oceanic nitrogen fixation and biogeochemical interactions between the nitrogen, phosphorus and iron cycles have important implications for the control of primary production and carbon storage in the ocean. The biological ...

  11. Dynamics of global ocean heat transport variability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jayne, Steven Robert

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A state-of-the-art, high-resolution ocean general circulation model is used to estimate the time-dependent global ocean heat transport and investigate its dynamics. The north-south heat transport is the prime manifestation ...

  12. Subsurface Hybrid Power Options for Oil & Gas Production at Deep Ocean Sites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, J C; Haut, R; Jahn, G; Goldman, J; Colvin, J; Karpinski, A; Dobley, A; Halfinger, J; Nagley, S; Wolf, K; Shapiro, A; Doucette, P; Hansen, P; Oke, A; Compton, D; Cobb, M; Kopps, R; Chitwood, J; Spence, W; Remacle, P; Noel, C; Vicic, J; Dee, R

    2010-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

    An investment in deep-sea (deep-ocean) hybrid power systems may enable certain off-shore oil and gas exploration and production. Advanced deep-ocean drilling and production operations, locally powered, may provide commercial access to oil and gas reserves otherwise inaccessible. Further, subsea generation of electrical power has the potential of featuring a low carbon output resulting in improved environmental conditions. Such technology therefore, enhances the energy security of the United States in a green and environmentally friendly manner. The objective of this study is to evaluate alternatives and recommend equipment to develop into hybrid energy conversion and storage systems for deep ocean operations. Such power systems will be located on the ocean floor and will be used to power offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations. Such power systems will be located on the oceans floor, and will be used to supply oil and gas exploration activities, as well as drilling operations required to harvest petroleum reserves. The following conceptual hybrid systems have been identified as candidates for powering sub-surface oil and gas production operations: (1) PWR = Pressurized-Water Nuclear Reactor + Lead-Acid Battery; (2) FC1 = Line for Surface O{sub 2} + Well Head Gas + Reformer + PEMFC + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (3) FC2 = Stored O2 + Well Head Gas + Reformer + Fuel Cell + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (4) SV1 = Submersible Vehicle + Stored O{sub 2} + Fuel Cell + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (5) SV2 = Submersible Vehicle + Stored O{sub 2} + Engine or Turbine + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (6) SV3 = Submersible Vehicle + Charge at Docking Station + ZEBRA & Li-Ion Batteries; (7) PWR TEG = PWR + Thermoelectric Generator + Lead-Acid Battery; (8) WELL TEG = Thermoelectric Generator + Well Head Waste Heat + Lead-Acid Battery; (9) GRID = Ocean Floor Electrical Grid + Lead-Acid Battery; and (10) DOC = Deep Ocean Current + Lead-Acid Battery.

  13. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. Ocean and Sea Ice SAF ASCAT-B NWP Ocean Calibration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    Ocean and Sea Ice SAF ASCAT-B NWP Ocean Calibration and Validation Technical Report SAF/OSI/CDOP2 #12;SAF/OSI/CDOP2/KNMI/TEC/RP/199 ASCAT-B NWP Ocean Calibration and Validation Summary On September 17 launched. For the ASCAT-B scatterometer, corrections are derived with the use of the NWP ocean calibration

  16. AANNUALNNUAL RREPORTEPORT Integrated Ocean Drilling ProgramIntegrated Ocean Drilling Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AANNUALNNUAL RREPORTEPORT Integrated Ocean Drilling ProgramIntegrated Ocean Drilling Program U ANNUAL REPORT #12;#12;Integrated Ocean Drilling Program United States Implementing Organization JOI T his Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP)-U.S. Implementing Organization (USIO) Fiscal Year 2006

  17. Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability CAROLINE C. UMMENHOFER*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

    Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability CAROLINE C is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop

  18. 4 -Coastal Ocean Processes The Oregon Coastal Ocean: A Sink for Atmospheric CO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pierce, Stephen

    4 - Coastal Ocean Processes The Oregon Coastal Ocean: A Sink for Atmospheric CO 2 ? As part of the Coastal Ocean Processes (CoOP)-sponsored Coastal Ocean Advances in Shelf Transport project (COAST) we laboratory, we developed analytical sys- tems that were capable of measuring nutrient con- centrations and CO

  19. A Biochemical Ocean State Estimate in the Southern1 Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haine, Thomas W. N.

    of the oceanic31 carbon pool. It influences light penetration with consequences for primary productivity1 A Biochemical Ocean State Estimate in the Southern1 Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment2 S. Dwivedi1 , T. W. N. Haine2 and C. E. Del Castillo3 3 1 Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University

  20. Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 19971998

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Yuqing

    Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997 Abstract. An anomalous climatic event occurred in the Indian Ocean (IO) region during 1997­1998, which 1997, warm SSTAs appeared in the western IO, and they peaked in February 1998. An ocean general

  1. Ocean and Resources Engineering is the application of ocean science and engineering to the challenging conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frandsen, Jannette B.

    engineering, mixing and transport, water quality, ocean thermal energy conversion, hydrogen. GENO PAWLAK

  2. A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    oceans; their extensive total volume and large thermal capacity require a larger injection of energy

  3. Career Opportunity in Ocean Energy POSITION TITLE: Director of Renewable Ocean Energy Research Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Career Opportunity in Ocean Energy POSITION TITLE: Director of Renewable Ocean Energy Research: The Coastal Studies Institute (CSI) is seeking a dynamic individual to lead its Renewable Ocean Energy Program for a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary renewable ocean energy research program. The position

  4. Ocean Sci., 3, 337344, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/337/2007/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1/3 of the total tidal energy dissipation, in the ocean basins through "internal" waves breaking, eOcean Sci., 3, 337­344, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/337/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science Unpredictability of internal M2 H. van Haren Netherlands

  5. Ocean Sci., 3, 461482, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/461/2007/

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Ocean Sci., 3, 461­482, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/461/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science Effects of mesoscale eddies on global ocean Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, Monaco *now at: Institute of Biogeochemistry

  6. Call title: "The ocean of tomorrow" Call identifier: FP7-OCEAN-2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Milano-Bicocca, UniversitĂ 

    challenges in ocean management Theme 5 ­ Energy Area ENERGY.10.1 Call "The ocean of tomorrow" ­ Joining1 Call title: "The ocean of tomorrow" · Call identifier: FP7-OCEAN-2010 · Date of publication: 30, and Biotechnology (KBBE) - EUR 6 million from Theme 5 ­ Energy - EUR 10.5 million from Theme 6 ­ Environment

  7. The effect of ocean mixed layer depth on climate in slab ocean aquaplanet experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Battisti, David

    a severely reduced (&50 %) meridi- onal energy transport relative to the deep ocean runs. As a resultThe effect of ocean mixed layer depth on climate in slab ocean aquaplanet experiments Aaron Donohoe online: 28 June 2013 Ă? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Abstract The effect of ocean mixed layer

  8. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  9. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  10. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 185 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 185 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS IZU-MARIANA MARGIN Dr. Terry Plank Co France Dr. Carlota Escutia Staff Scientist Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Research Park 1000 the written consent of the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A&M University Research Park, 1000

  11. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 100 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 100 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS SHAKEDOWN AND SEA TRIALS CRUISE Philip D. Rabinowitz Co-Chief Scientist, Leg 100 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843 William J. Merrell Co-Chief Scientist, Leg 100 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University College Station

  12. SHIPBOARD SCIENTISTS1 OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SHIPBOARD SCIENTISTS1 HANDBOOK OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY TECHNICAL NOTE 3 portion requires the written consent of the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A&M University be obtained from the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A & M University Research Park, 1000 Discovery

  13. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 100 REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 100 REPORT NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO Philip D Rabinowitz Co-Chief Scientist, Leg 100 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843 William J. Merrell Co-Chief Scientist, Leg 100 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843

  14. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 159 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 159 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS THE COTE D'IVOIRE - GHANA TRANSFORM MARGIN, Leg 159 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A&M University Research Park 1000 Discovery Drive College Station requires the written consent of the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A&M University Research Park

  15. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 140 PRELIMINARY REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 140 PRELIMINARY REPORT HOLE 504B Dr. Henry Dick Dr. Jörg Erzinger Co Giessen Federal Republic of Germany Dr. Laura Stokking Staff Scientist, Leg 140 Ocean Drilling Program Copies of this publication may be obtained from the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A

  16. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 105 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 105 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS LABRADOR SEA - BAFFIN BAY Dr. Michael A. Bradford Clement Staff Science Representative, Leg 105 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Station, TX 77843-3469" Philip Director Ocean Drilling Program Robert B. Kidd Manager of Science

  17. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 108 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 108 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS NORTHWEST AFRICA Dr. William Ruddiman Co Federal Republic of Germany Dr. Jack G. Baldauf Staff Scientist, Leg 108 Ocean Drilling Program Texas A & M University College Station, Texas 77843-3469 Philip W Rabin Direct Ocean Drilling Program

  18. OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 118 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM LEG 118 SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTUS FRACTURE ZONE DRILLING ON THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole, MA 02543 Andrew C. Adamson Staff Scientist, Leg 118 Ocean Drilling Program the written consent of the Director, Ocean Drilling Program, Texas A&M University Research Park, 1000

  19. Ocean Optics Environmental Optics, Nanoscience Division

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strathclyde, University of

    suspended solids swept up from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico The right picture shows a phytoplankton bloom and changes observed. This can be used to monitor pollution in our oceans and methods taken when levels become such as ocean pollution, currents and warming, and to see how the oceans are affecting the health of our planet

  20. Ocean viscosity and climate M. Jochum,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jochum, Markus

    Ocean viscosity and climate M. Jochum,1 G. Danabasoglu,1 M. Holland,1 Y.-O. Kwon,1 and W. G. Large1] The impacts of parameterized lateral ocean viscosity on climate are explored using three 120-year integrations of a fully coupled climate model. Reducing viscosity leads to a generally improved ocean circulation

  1. Oceanic Origins of Southwest Tropical Atlantic Biases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Zhao

    2013-05-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Oceanic General Circulation Model POP Parallel Ocean Program ROMS Regional Ocean Modeling System SEC South Equatorial Current SECC South Equatorial Counter Current SETA Southeast Tropical Atlantic SEUC South Equatorial UnderCurrent SLP Sea Level... SST bias ................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 SST bias in SETA ...................................................................................... 8 1.4 Objectives and Approach...

  2. Menghua Wang NOAA STAR Ocean Color Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .g., BOUSSOLE, Chesapeake Bay, etc., will be added) Regional ocean color EDR monitoring Hawaii South PacificLw551, and nLw671. #12;VIIRS ocean color EDR regional time- series monitoring at South Pacific Gyre (SPG) #12;Online interactive plot of SPG time-series #12;Global deep-water (>1000 m) ocean color EDR

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1