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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

2

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.18 page 104 BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the three- dimensional ocean state (temperature, salinity and pressure) and currents for the short BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia Gary B. Brassington1 , Graham Warren1 are now on standby. At their disposal are analyses and forecasts from the Bureau's new operational ocean

Oke, Peter

4

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

5

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

6

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

7

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

8

11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and in situ observations, for NWP, ocean forecasting, ecosystem applications, and climate research. BY C forecasting, military and defence operations, validating or forcing ocean and atmospheric models, ecosystem11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment

Merchant, Chris

9

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning… (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents – a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Recent evidence supports the premise that the subsurface ocean structure plays an important role in modulating air–sea fluxes during hurricane passage, which in turn, affects intensity change. Given the generally sparse in situ data, it has been ...

Lynn K. Shay; Jodi K. Brewster

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Forecasting a large number of tropical cyclone intensities around Japan using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model in the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations were performed by ...

Kosuke Ito; Tohru Kuroda; Kazuo Saito; Akiyoshi Wada

16

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT Earth values must be specified (Table 1). Corresponding author address: Jasper Vrugt, Earth and Envi- ronmental

Vrugt, Jasper A.

17

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

20

Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53 ?g m?3 for O3, from ?4.70 to ?0.63 ?g m?3 for NO2, from ?4.00 to ?0.13 ?g m?3 for PM2.5 and from ?7.70 to ?0.25 ?g m?3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.

L.S. Neal; P. Agnew; S. Moseley; C. Ordóñez; N.H. Savage; M. Tilbee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

23

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

24

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

Breivik, Øyvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia CHERMELLE ENGEL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-resolution grid. Local and in- ternational numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse by numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts. As NWP models improve, public weather forecasting University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia ELIZABETH E. EBERT Centre for Australia Weather

Ebert, Beth

26

www.cesos.ntnu.no Author Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 www.cesos.ntnu.no Author ­ Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures Offshore Wind Turbine Operation icing for offshore Wind Turbines ? · Wherever there is sea icing ! · Temperature bellow zero degree Structures Outline · Introduction · Wind Turbine Operational Conditions · Wind Turbine Operation under

Nørvåg, Kjetil

27

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

29

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

30

The outlook for Operations Research: will business education supply enough management science new entrants to meet forecast demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Can Management Science in Business Education become sufficiently popular to fill forecast demands for new entrants to its Operations Research (OR) subset? Based upon papers by numerous authors, this paper identifies an interesting phenomenon â?? an increasingly applicable field of Management Science plagued by students avoiding entry. This paper discusses the results of an examination of this phenomenon's background, provides data collected concerning current supply of and projected demand for new entrants in a subset of Management Science; examines the continuing call for new approaches to teaching Management Science as a means of attracting new entrants; and presents continued research suggestions.

Richard A. McMahon; Peter D. DeVries

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

33

Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of the assimilation of ocean observations on reducing global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) 48-h forecast errors is presented. The assessment uses an adjoint-based data impact procedure that characterizes the forecast impact of ...

James A. Cummings; Ole Martin Smedstad

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights of Mexico. Before the storm, it produced 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 160 million cubic over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200

35

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

36

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Grey-box modeling of an ocean vessel for operational optimization  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Operational optimization of ocean vessels, both off-line and in real-time, is becoming increasingly important due to rising fuel cost and added environmental constraints. Accurate and efficient simulation models are needed to achieve maximum energy efficiency. In this paper a grey-box modeling approach for the simulation of ocean vessels is presented. The modeling approach combines conventional analysis models based on physical principles (a white-box model) with a feed forward neural-network (a black-box model). Two different ways of combining these models are presented, in series and in parallel. The results of simulating several trips of a medium sized container vessel show that the grey-box modeling approach, both serial and parallel approaches, can improve the prediction of the vessel fuel consumption significantly compared to a white-box model. However, a prediction of the vessel speed is only improved slightly. Furthermore, the results give an indication of the potential advantages of grey-box models, which is extrapolation beyond a given training data set and the incorporation of physical phenomena which are not modeled in the white-box models. Finally, included is a discussion on how to enhance the predictability of the grey-box models as well as updating the neural-network in real-time.

Leifur Þ. Leifsson; Hildur Sævarsdóttir; Sven Þ. Sigurðsson; Ari Vésteinsson

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

39

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

40

The Nereus Hybrid Underwater Robotic Vehicle for Global Ocean Science Operations to 11,000m Depth  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is to provide the U.S. oceanographic community with the first capable and cost- effective vehicle for routineThe Nereus Hybrid Underwater Robotic Vehicle for Global Ocean Science Operations to 11,000m Depth-- This paper reports an overview of the new Nereus hybrid underwater vehicle and summarizes the vehicle's per

Whitcomb, Louis L.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

43

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

44

Oceanography Vol.22, No.2194 Operational Use and Impact of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-to-be-available satellite OSVW data in the operational weather forecasting and warning environment. This effort had threeOceanography Vol.22, No.2194 Operational Use and Impact of Satellite Remotely Sensed Ocean Surface Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) worked together to imple- ment a near

Long, David G.

45

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

46

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

47

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

48

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean William S. D. Wilcock School...of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, a region of high-amplitude...interaction|forecasting|prediction|Pacific Ocean| Introduction For more than a......

William S. D. Wilcock

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

50

Parallelization Strategies for the GPS Radio Occultation Data Assimilation with a Nonlocal Operator in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The nonlocal excess phase observation operator for assimilating the global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) sounding data has been proven by some research papers to produce significantly better analyses for numerical weather ...

Xin Zhang; Ying-Hwa Kuo; Shu-Ya Chen; Xiang-Yu Huang; Ling-Feng Hsiao

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Optimized Operation Strategies for PV Storages Systems Yield Limitations, Optimized Battery Configuration and the Benefit of a Perfect Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Decreasing feed in tariffs and system prices combined with an increase of electricity tariffs supports the trend to install PV storage systems in private households. In the past years several investigations and field trials have shown, that these systems can increase the self consumption of PV-power and support the self sufficiency of private households [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. These systems also have a positive influence on the low-voltage grid [7], [8]. In recent years several investigations have been done to determine the optimal system configuration. They focus on the storage and PV generator size [9] or the applied storage technology [10]. In general, the mode of operation follows a simple regime: If PV production is larger than the actual consumption, PV power is stored. If the local consumption is higher than the actual PV production, stored power is used as long as available. Only slight modifications have been done, to map the price and efficiency effects of power electronics [11], [12]. Therefore, the results are limited to a single mode of operation. In this presentation, we derive a mathematical framework, which allows the calculation of the upper performance limit for a specific household and storage system, without any assumption on the operation strategy. We apply these analysis to a large set of German households and compare the upper performance limit for two different storage system designs: A system with relative short lifetime and small capacity on the one hand and another with a long lifetime and larger capacity

Armin U. Schmiegel; Andreas Kleine

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

53

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

54

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions Brian Burke, NOAA Fisheries Brian.Burke@noaa.gov #12;· Review of ocean indicator work · Forecasting · Indicator gaps and the importance of mechanistic understanding · Plugging in to management #12;Haeseker et al. 2012 Ocean survival is low and variable #12;-10 -5

56

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

57

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

59

Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change John Ferguson1 NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries're finding - adult forecasts and climate change) #12;1. Past (for context) · The coastal pelagic ecosystem

60

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

A Novel and Scalable Spatio-Temporal Technique for Ocean Eddy Monitoring James H. Faghmous  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Swirls of ocean currents known as ocean eddies are a crucial component of the ocean's dynamics, understanding past and current eddy activity is crucial for forecasting future ocean dynamics and, subseA Novel and Scalable Spatio-Temporal Technique for Ocean Eddy Monitoring James H. Faghmous , Yashu

Minnesota, University of

63

Ocean Wave Energy Systems Design: Conceptual Design Methodology for the Operational Matching of the Wells Air Turbine  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The paper has set out a conceptual design methodology that was employed in the design of a Wells air turbine for OWC ocean wave energy plants. In particular, the ... sizing, given the range and frequency of power

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

E-Print Network 3.0 - arctic ocean freshwater Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

8. Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Freshwater Resources... and persistent ocean currents to feed energy ... Source: Wagner, Diane - Institute of Arctic Biology,...

67

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

68

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

69

An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The observing and forecasting conditions of coastal oceans in Alaska is technically challenging because of the mountainous terrain, the notoriously stormy seas, and a complex hydrological system of freshwater from rivers and glaciers. The Alaska Ocean ...

G. Carl Schoch; Yi Chao; Francois Colas; John Farrara; Molly McCammon; Peter Olsson; Gaurav Singhal

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

A Brief Introduction to Ocean Oil Spills Professor Tommy Dickey, Secretary of the Navy/Chief of Naval Operations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, ecosystems (sfc. and beach organisms + birds most affected) -impacts depend on form of hydrocarbons (i to the ocean. 85% of petroleum input (~700,000 bbls) in N. America waters comes from land runoff (i.e., from Impacts to Marine Life + Oil affects birds temp., buoyancy, flight, physiology (toxicity) + Mammals

Fabrikant, Sara Irina

71

Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

better forecasts, wind energy plant operators and industry professionals can ensure wind turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers....

72

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

75

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx): Goals, platforms, and field operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) was an international field program designed to make observations of poorly understood but critical components of the coupled climate system of the southeast Pacific. This region is characterized by strong coastal upwelling, the coolest SSTs in the tropical belt, and is home to the largest subtropical stratocumulus deck on Earth. The field intensive phase of VOCALS-REx took place during October and November 2008 and constitutes a critical part of a broader CLIVAR program (VOCALS) designed to develop and promote scientific activities leading to improved understanding, model simulations, and predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to interannual timescales. The other major components of VOCALS are a modeling program with a model hierarchy ranging from the local to global scales, and a suite of extended observations from regular research cruises, instrumented moorings, and satellites. The two central themes of VOCALS-REx focus upon (a) links between aerosols, clouds and precipitation and their impacts on marine stratocumulus radiative properties, and (b) physical and chemical couplings between the upper ocean and the lower atmosphere, including the role that mesoscale ocean eddies play. A set of hypotheses designed to be tested with the combined field, monitoring and modeling work in VOCALS is presented here. A further goal of VOCALS-REx is to provide datasets for the evaluation and improvement of large-scale numerical models. VOCALS-REx involved five research aircraft, two ships and two surface sites in northern Chile. We describe the instrument payloads and key mission strategies for these platforms and give a summary of the missions conducted.

Wood, R.; Springston, S.; Mechoso, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; A.Weller, R.; Huebert, B.; Straneo, F.; Albrecht, B. A.; Coe, H.; Allen, G.; Vaughan, G.; Daum, P.; Fairall, C.; Chand, D.; Klenner, L. G.; Garreaud, R.; Grados, C.; Covert, D. S.; Bates, T. S.; Krejci, R.; Russell, L. M.; Szoeke, S. d.; Brewer, A.; Yuter, S. E.; Chaigneau, A.; Toniazzo, T.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Abel, S. J.; Brown, W. O. J.; Williams, S.; Fochesatto, J.; Brioude, J.; Bower, K. N

2011-01-21T23:59:59.000Z

79

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans. Introduction [2] Because water vapor is the most significant green- house gas and it exhibits a strong

Allan, Richard P.

80

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

82

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

83

Karhunen–Loeve representation of stochastic ocean waves  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...stochastic ocean wave elevations and wind speed profiles is finally addressed...and design of fixed and floating offshore wind turbines and for the forecasting...wind speeds and power output of wind farms. 2. Spectral decomposition of...

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Forecast of criticality experiments and experimental programs needed to support nuclear operations in the United States of America: 1994--1999  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Forecast is generated by the Chair of the Experiment Needs Identification Workgroup (ENIWG), with input from Department of Energy and the nuclear community. One of the current concerns addressed by ENIWG was the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board`s Recommendation 93-2. This Recommendation delineated the need for a critical experimental capability, which includes (1) a program of general-purpose experiments, (2) improving the information base, and (3) ongoing departmental programs. The nuclear community also recognizes the importance of criticality theory, which, as a stepping stone to computational analysis and safety code development, needs to be benchmarked against well-characterized critical experiments. A summary project of the Department`s needs with respect to criticality information includes (1) hands-on training, (2) criticality and nuclear data, (3) detector systems, (4) uranium- and plutonium-based reactors, and (5) accident analysis. The Workgroup has evaluated, prioritized, and categorized each proposed experiment and program. Transportation/Applications is a new category intended to cover the areas of storage, training, emergency response, and standards. This category has the highest number of priority-1 experiments (nine). Facilities capable of performing experiments include the Los Alamos Critical Experiment Facility (LACEF) along with Area V at Sandia National Laboratory. The LACEF continues to house the most significant collection of critical assemblies in the Western Hemisphere. The staff of this facility and Area V are trained and certified, and documentation is current. ENIWG will continue to work with the nuclear community to identify and prioritize experiments because there is an overwhelming need for critical experiments to be performed for basic research and code validation.

Rutherford, D.

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

86

Short Communication Three ocean state indices implemented in  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and currents at various resolutions. We briefly present the OFS, then describe three currently available oceanShort Communication Three ocean state indices implemented in the Mercator-Ocean operational suite L., and Soulat, F. 2008. Three ocean state indices implemented in the Mercator-Ocean operational suite. ­ ICES

Ribes, Aurélien

87

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

90

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

91

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

92

Study and implementation of mesoscale weather forecasting models in the wind industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? As the wind industry is developing, it is asking for more reliable short-term wind forecasts to better manage the wind farms’ operations and electricity… (more)

Jourdier, Bénédicte

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Tests of the impact of assimilation of surface data on ocean state estimates  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tests of the impact of assimilation of surface data on ocean state estimates The coastal ocean. The relative impact of these data on the ocean state estimate has been evaluated. Accurate prediction of the front location is important to fisheries. Prediction and forecasting of surface currents would

Kurapov, Alexander

94

Design of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a new model development effort undertaken jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a number of collaborating institutions and university scientists. The model is intended for use by operational NWP and university research communities, providing a common framework for idealized dynamical studies, fill physics numerical weather prediction, air-quality simulation, and regional climate. It will eventually supersede large, well-established but aging regional models now maintained by the participating institutions. The WRF effort includes re-engineering the underlying software architecture to produce a modular, flexible code designed from the outset to provide portable performance across diverse computing architectures. This paper outlines key elements of the WRF software design.

Michalakes, J.

1999-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

95

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

96

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

97

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

98

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

99

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

100

Measuring ocean waves from space; Proceedings of the Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, Apr. 15-17, 1986  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Papers are presented on ocean-wave prediction; the quasi-universal form of the spectra of wind-generated gravity waves at different stages of their development; the limitations of the spectral measurements and observations of the group structure of surface waves; the effect of swell on the growth of wind wave; operational wave forecasting; ocean-wave models, and seakeeping using directional wave spectra. Consideration is given to microwave measurements of the ocean-wave directional spectra; SIR research; estimating wave energy spectra from SAR imagery, with the radar ocean-wave spectrometer, and SIR-B; the wave-measurement capabilities of the surface contour radar and the airborne oceanographic lidar; and SIR-B ocean-wave enhancement with fast-Fourier transform techniques. Topics discussed include wave-current interaction; the design and applicability of Spectrasat; the need for a global wave monitoring system; the age and source of ocean swell observed in Hurricane Josephine; and the use of satellite technology for insulin treatment.

Beal, R.C.

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Management  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Stochastic seismicity models combining the Gutenberg-Richter...Applying the model just prior to the...the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. At the...seismologists can predict an earthquake. In...to socioeconomic models can help minimize...impact of an influenza outbreak. PUBLIC EDUCATION...

Gordon Woo

102

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

103

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

104

ENSO’s Impact on the Gap Wind Regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with ...

Michael A. Alexander; Hyodae Seo; Shang Ping Xie; James D. Scott

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for ...

Holger Pohlmann; Johann H. Jungclaus; Armin Köhl; Detlef Stammer; Jochem Marotzke

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

MOSE: operational forecast of the optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters at European Southern Observatory ground-based sites – II. Atmospheric parameters in the surface layer 0–30 m  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......filtering of the weak winds) and is always inferior...to the threshold of the wind speed. The improvements...orography of both sites (local peaks surrounded by mountainous...difficulties in forecasting the wind direction in such conditions...another mesocale model, wrf. Indeed, using a nesting......

F. Lascaux; E. Masciadri; L. Fini

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

109

Ocean Acidification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ocean Acidification ... The first assignment I give my students in Environmental Modeling class is to calculate the mass of the oceans versus the mass of the atmosphere and the “living” soil. ... As a young chemical engineer in the early 1970s, I remember discussing the horrors of sulfur and particulate pollution from steel mills, smelters, and power plants. ...

Jerald L. Schnoor

2013-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

110

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

111

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

115

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

116

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

118

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

119

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

120

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Ocean Energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Some of these technologies are taking off from very low power capacities, although with an intense activity....4, 5] including La Rance tidal power station calculate a capacity of ocean energy facilities worldwid...

Ricardo Guerrero-Lemus; José Manuel Martínez-Duart

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

123

Modeling for Tsunami Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, accuracy, special operating environment needs, ease-of-use, and documentation #12;December 26, 2004 Sumatra

124

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

126

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model independently of the CTM. The NWP output is typically archived

Dacre, Helen

127

Proceedings OceanSAR 2006 Third Workshop on Coastal and Marine Applications of SAR, St. John's, NL, Canada, October 2006 Algorithm development for operational satellite SAR  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Proceedings OceanSAR 2006 ­ Third Workshop on Coastal and Marine Applications of SAR, St. John, U.S.A. Tel: 734-741-2265, Fax: 734-741-2055, E-mail: george.leshkevich@noaa.gov 2 Jet Propulsion types using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) C-band scatterometer, together with surface-based ice

128

Real time assimilation of HF radar currents into a coastal ocean model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A real time assimilation and forecasting system for coastal currents is presented. The purpose of the system is to deliver current analyses and forecasts based on assimilation of high frequency radar surface current measurements. The local Vessel Traffic Service monitoring the ship traffic to two oil terminals on the coast of Norway received the analyses and forecasts in real time. A new assimilation method based on optimal interpolation is presented where spatial covariances derived from an ocean model are used instead of simplified mathematical formulations. An array of high frequency radar antennae provide the current measurements. A suite of nested ocean models comprise the model system. The observing system is found to yield good analyses and short range forecasts that are significantly improved compared to a model twin without assimilation. The system is fast; analysis and six hour forecasts are ready at the Vessel Traffic Service 45 minutes after acquisition of radar measurements.

Breivik, Øyvind; 10.1016/S0924-7963(01)00002-1

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

A model for improving ocean wind forecasts using satellite  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using the dynamical model from previous talk we now want to assimilate the satellite measurements Using the dynamical model from previous talk we now want to assimilate the satellite measurements now want to assimilate the satellite measurements into this model. We will discuss the measurement

Malmberg, Anders

131

Ensemble forecasting with machine learning algorithms for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and PM10 on the Prev'Air  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble forecasting with machine learning algorithms for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and PM10'Air operational platform. This platform aims at forecasting maps, on a daily basis, for ozone, nitrogen dioxide models, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, threshold exceedance 1. Introduction1 Operational

Mallet, Vivien

132

UC Operational Plan 2006 INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(FMP) including a financial forecast model and capital expenditure plan April Finance Manager 3-2006) and develop a follow-on Financial Management Plan which will include a financial forecast model and a capital expenditure plan Operational Steps 2006 Timeline Task Responsibility 1. Complete the implementation

Hickman, Mark

133

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

134

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

135

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

137

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

138

Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model of Technology Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India A. ROUTRAY National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida The performance of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model in real

139

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

140

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

142

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

143

Improving the Display of Wind Patterns and Ocean Currents  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considerable effort has gone into building numerical weather and ocean prediction models during the past 50 years. Less effort has gone into the visual representation of output from those forecast models and many of the techniques used are known to be ...

Colin Ware; John G.W. Kelley; David Pilar

144

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology EARLY ONLINE RELEASE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainty associated with winter storm precipitation type, accumulation, and29 timing is a major forecasting hydrometeor classification algorithm for winter precipitation. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. doi:10.1175/JTECH classification algorithm for1 winter precipitation2 Elizabeth J. Thompson, Steven A. Rutledge, Brenda Dolan

Rutledge, Steven

145

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

147

Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis and Predictability of Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble weather forecasting has been operational for two decades now. However, the related uncertainty analysis in terms of probabilistic postprocessing still focuses on single variables, grid points, or stations. Inevitable dependencies in space ...

Jessica Keune; Christian Ohlwein; Andreas Hense

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million (Australian dollars) ...

Dustin Fabbian; Richard de Dear; Stephen Lellyett

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stéphane Bélair; Claude Girard; André Plante

150

Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...

Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

152

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

156

Operating and Capital Expenditures Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this chapter, you will learn how to plan, create, and use the Operating Expenditure (OPEX) model and the Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) model. These models are used ... to forecast, respectively, general operatin...

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Oceans '88  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

These proceedings discuss the following papers: Solid waste disposal crisis; Plastics in Ocean; Continental shelf environmental research; Seafood technology advancements; Gulf of Mexico chemosynthetic petroleum seep communities; Water reuse on onshore mariculture and processing facilities; Oil and gas industry conflicts on the outer continental shelf; Cumulative environmental effects of the oil and gas leasing program; Oil and gas exploration; and Oil and gas resource management; Aids to navigation systems and equipment; and Surveillance experiments.

Not Available

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

160

Univariate forecasting of day-ahead hourly electricity demand in the northern grid of India  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term electricity demand forecasts (minutes to several hours ahead) have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive energy markets. The issue is particularly important for India as it has recently set up a power exchange (PX), which has been operating on day-ahead hourly basis. In this study, an attempt has been made to forecast day-ahead hourly demand of electricity in the northern grid of India using univariate time-series forecasting techniques namely multiplicative seasonal ARIMA and Holt-Winters multiplicative exponential smoothing (ES). In-sample forecasts reveal that ARIMA models, except in one case, outperform ES models in terms of lower RMSE, MAE and MAPE criteria. We may conclude that linear time-series models works well to explain day-ahead hourly demand forecasts in the northern grid of India. The findings of the study will immensely help the players in the upcoming power market in India.

Sajal Ghosh

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

162

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

164

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

165

Ocean and Sea Ice SAF Technical Note  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean and Sea Ice SAF Technical Note SAF/OSI/CDOP/KNMI/TEC/RP/147 Validation of ASCAT 12.5-km winds The Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) delivers an operational level 2 wind product produces a level 1 product with 12.5-km WVC spacing that has a resolution of approximately 25 km. Since

Stoffelen, Ad

166

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

167

Predictability of the Barents Sea ice in early winter: Remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the North Atlantic  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November–December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR)...

Takuya Nakanowatari; Kazutoshi Sato; Jun Inoue

168

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

169

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

170

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

171

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

172

Impact of Infrared, Microwave, and Radio Occultation Satellite Observations on Operational Numerical Weather Prediction  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A comparison of the impact of infrared (IR), microwave (MW), and radio occultation (RO) observations on NCEP’s operational global forecast model over the month of March 2013 is presented. Analyses and forecasts with only IR, MW, and RO ...

L. Cucurull; R. A. Anthes

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Ocean | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Related Links List of Ocean Thermal Incentives Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleOcean&oldid273467" Categories: Articles with outstanding TODO tasks Sectors...

175

Ocean Observing Ocean Observing Systems (OOS)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, national, and global scales. · Ocean Observing Systems serve: Fishing industry National security Coastal properties, such as salinity, temperature, and waves Satellite maps of sea surface temperature NATIONAL Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) 11 REGIONAL Systems, including: MANY LOCAL Systems

Schladow, S. Geoffrey

176

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

177

or more than 50 years, NOAA has operated earth-observing satellites and collected, processed, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and distributed the data from these satellites to provide life-saving weather forecasts, measure ocean satellites are the backbone of weather forecasts, climate research, and environmental assessments that result, on web pages, and smart phone "apps" all rely on NOAA satellite data. A Weather-Ready Nation NOAA

178

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

179

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

The Pacific Ocean’s Acidification Laboratory  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Pacific Ocean’s Acidification Laboratory ... Five years ago, at the quadrennial International Coral Reef Symposium in Okinawa, Japan, a poll of the scientists and resource managers present ranked ocean acidification 38th out of a list of 39 possible threats facing reefs, recalls Rusty Brainard, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Coral Reef Ecosystem Division. ... As the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere at the rate of one million tons per hour, the pH of the water is changing. ...

Christopher Pala

2009-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

182

Evolving an Information Diffusion Model Using a Genetic Algorithm for Monthly River Discharge Time Series Interpolation and Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The identification of the rainfall–runoff relationship is a significant precondition for surface–atmosphere process research and operational flood forecasting, especially in inadequately monitored basins. Based on an information diffusion model (...

Chengzu Bai; Mei Hong; Dong Wang; Ren Zhang; Longxia Qian

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Impact of TRMM Data on a Low-Latency, High-Resolution Precipitation Algorithm for Flash-Flood Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made great contributions to hydrometeorology from both a science and an operations standpoint. However, direct application of TRMM data to short-fuse hydrologic forecasting has been ...

Robert J. Kuligowski; Yaping Li; Yu Zhang

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

187

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

188

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Development of short-term forecast quality for new offshore wind farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As the rapid wind power build-out continues, a large number of new wind farms will come online but forecasters and forecasting algorithms have little experience with them. This is a problem for statistical short term forecasts, which must be trained on a long record of historical power production – exactly what is missing for a new farm. Focus of the study was to analyse development of the offshore wind power forecast (WPF) quality from beginning of operation up to one year of operational experience. This paper represents a case study using data of the first German offshore wind farm "alpha ventus" and first German commercial offshore wind farm "Baltic1". The work was carried out with measured data from meteorological measurement mast FINO1, measured power from wind farms and numerical weather prediction (NWP) from the German Weather Service (DWD). This study facilitates to decide the length of needed time series and selection of forecast method to get a reliable WPF on a weekly time axis. Weekly development of WPF quality for day-ahead WPF via different models is presented. The models are physical model; physical model extended with a statistical correction (MOS) and artificial neural network (ANN) as a pure statistical model. Selforganizing map (SOM) is investigated for a better understanding of uncertainties of forecast error.

M Kurt; B Lange

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

191

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

192

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

193

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

194

HEAT EXCHANGE AND WEATHER FORECASTING  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...energy into kinetic energy. In the scheme of...that the potential energy has to be re- stored...time, search for energy sources and sinks...earth's surfaces as a converter of radiation into...where K is the thermal diffusivity; in...the mobility of the ocean waters, we see that...

Sverre Petterssen

1959-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Posters Toward an Operational Water Vapor Remote Sensing System Using the Global Positioning System  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

3 3 Posters Toward an Operational Water Vapor Remote Sensing System Using the Global Positioning System S. I. Gutman, (a) R. B. Chadwick, (b) and D. W. Wolf (c) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado A. Simon Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science Boulder, Colorado T. Van Hove and C. Rocken University Navstar Consortium Boulder, Colorado Background Water vapor is one of the most important constituents of the free atmosphere since it is the principal mechanism by which moisture and latent heat are transported and cause "weather." The measurement of atmospheric water vapor is essential for weather and climate research as well as for operational weather forecasting. An important goal in modern weather prediction is to improve the accuracy of short-term

196

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

198

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

199

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

200

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

203

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

205

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Causes of ocean currents  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the foregoing analysis of the ocean and the atmosphere as two interacting subsystems, we have identified two major energy inputs into the ocean. These are the wind stress over the sea surface and heat fluxe...

David Tolmazin

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project “Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas”. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90 min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Süld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

CHARACTERIZING DANGEROUS WAVES FOR OCEAN WAVE ENERGY CONVERTER SURVIVABILITY Justin Hovland  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CHARACTERIZING DANGEROUS WAVES FOR OCEAN WAVE ENERGY CONVERTER SURVIVABILITY Justin Hovland ABSTRACT Ocean Wave Energy Converters (OWECs) operating on the water surface are subject to storms at station 139. Keywords: wave energy, survivability, breaking waves, joint distribution, OWEC INTRODUCTION

Haller, Merrick

210

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

ocean | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ocean ocean Dataset Summary Description This shapefile represents the seasonal winter depth profile to reach water at a temperature of 20ºC. Source NREL Date Released October 28th, 2012 (2 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords depth profile hydrokinetic ocean ocean energy ocean thermal energy conversion OTEC seawater cooling thermal Data application/zip icon OTEC Seawater Cooling 20ºC Depth Profile - Winter Average (zip, 1.1 MiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period March 2009 - February 2011 License License Other or unspecified, see optional comment below Comment This GIS data was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory ("NREL"), which is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE"). The user is granted the right, without any fee or cost, to use, copy, modify, alter, enhance and distribute this data for any purpose whatsoever, provided that this entire notice appears in all copies of the data. Further, the user of this data agrees to credit NREL in any publications or software that incorporate or use the data. Access to and use of the GIS data shall further impose the following obligations on the User. The names DOE/NREL may not be used in any advertising or publicity to endorse or promote any product or commercial entity using or incorporating the GIS data unless specific written authorization is obtained from DOE/NREL. The User also understands that DOE/NREL shall not be obligated to provide updates, support, consulting, training or assistance of any kind whatsoever with regard to the use of the GIS data. THE GIS DATA IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL DOE/NREL BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CLAIMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DATA OR PROFITS, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM AN ACTION IN CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS CLAIM THAT ARISES OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCESS OR USE OF THE GIS DATA. The User acknowledges that access to the GIS data is subject to U.S. Export laws and regulations and any use or transfer of the GIS data must be authorized under those regulations. The User shall not use, distribute, transfer, or transmit GIS data or any products incorporating the GIS data except in compliance with U.S. export regulations. If requested by DOE/NREL, the User agrees to sign written assurances and other export-related documentation as may be required to comply with U.S. export regulations.

212

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Ocean | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ocean Ocean Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean Welcome to our COMMUNITY This is the National Ocean Council's portal for data, information, and decision tools to support people engaged in regional marine planning for the future use of the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes. Our goal is to enhance discovery of and access to data and information for planners, stakeholders, and the public. Please visit our Feedback page to tell us what would make the site most useful to you as we expand our content. Start Here! Previous Pause Next PacIOOS - Pacific Islands Voyager PacIOOS - Pacific Islands Voyager View More West Coast Governors Alliance - Regional Data Framework West Coast Governors Alliance - Regional Data Framework View More Mid-Atlantic Ocean Data Portal

214

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

216

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

217

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

218

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

222

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

223

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

224

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

225

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

227

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

229

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

232

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

233

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

City, and Sacramento Municipal Utility District, in California 1. BACKGROUND The effective capacity comfortable if capacity could be ascertained operationally by knowing in advance what the output of solar of the NDFD-based solar radiation forecasts for several climatically distinct locations, the evaluation is now

Perez, Richard R.

234

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Draft Programmaticof ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. Depart~on Ocean TherUial Energy Conversion, June 18, 1979. Ocean

Sands, M.Dale

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Importance of Horizontally Inhomogeneous Environmental Initial Conditions to Ensemble Storm-Scale Radar Data Assimilation and Very Short-Range Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The assimilation of operational Doppler radar observations into convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models for very short-range forecasting represents a significant scientific and technological challenge. Numerical experiments over ...

David J. Stensrud; Jidong Gao

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Chapter 4 The use of satellite surface wind data to improve weather analysis and forecasting at the NASA Data Assimilation Office  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

One important application of satellite surface wind observations is to improve the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. The first satellite to measure surface wind over the ocean was SeaSat in 1978. The initial impact of satellite surface wind data on weather analysis and forecasting was very small, but extensive research has been conducted since SeaSat to improve data accuracy and utilization of these data in atmospheric models. Satellite surface wind data are now used to detect intense storms over the ocean as well as to improve the overall representation of the wind field in numerical weather prediction models. Satellite wind data contribute to improved warnings for ships at sea and to more accurate global weather forecasts. Experiments with the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system indicate that the impact of satellite wind data measured by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Scatterometer was approximately twice as large as the impact of Special Sensor Microwave Imager or European Remote-sensing Satellite wind data. Locations of cyclones over the ocean were up to 500 km more accurate, and the useful forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics was extended by 24 hours.

R. Atlas; R.N. Hoffman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

CERTS Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Review Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, Yuting Ji, and Jinsub Kim School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University Jie Mei, Georgia Institute of Technology August 7, 2013 CERTS Review DATA QUALITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON MARKET OPERATIONS DENY OF SERVICE ATTACK ON REAL-TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET COVER UP PROTECTION AGAINST TOPOLOGY ATTACK Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, and Jinsub Kim Cornell University August 8, 2013 Project overview  Objectives  Accurate short-term probabilistic forecasting of real-time LMP.  Incorporate real-time measurements (e.g. SCADA/PMU).  Scalable computation techniques.  Summary of results  A real-time LMP model with forecasting and measurement

240

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Impact of vegetation fraction from Indian geostationary satellite on short-range weather forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Indian economy is largely depending upon the agricultural productivity and thus influences the trade among the SAARC countries. High-resolution and good-quality regional weather forecasts are necessary for planners, resource managers, insurers and national agro-advisory services. In this study, high resolution updated land-surface state in terms of vegetation fraction (VF) from operational vegetation index products of Indian geostationary satellite (INSAT 3A) sensor (CCD) was utilized in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (e.g. WRF) to investigate its impact on short-range weather forecast over the control run. Results showed that the updated vegetation fraction from INSAT 3A CCD improved the low-level 24 h temperature (?18%) and moisture (?10%) forecast in comparison to control run. The 24 h rainfall forecast was also improved (more than 5%) over central and southern India with the use of updated vegetation fraction compared to control experiment. INSAT 3A VF based experiment also showed a net improvement of 27% in surface sensible heat fluxes from WRF in comparison to control experiment when both were compared with area-averaged measurements from Large Aperture Scintillometer (LAS). This triggers the need of more and more use of realistic and updated land surface states through satellite remote sensing data as well as in situ micrometeorological measurements to improve the forecast quality, skill and consistency.

Prashant Kumar; Bimal K. Bhattacharya; P.K. Pal

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using a semantics-based genetic programming framework: The South Italy case  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Accurate and robust short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in electric power operations. This paper proposes a variant of genetic programming, improved by incorporating semantic awareness in algorithm, to address a short term load forecasting problem. The objective is to automatically generate models that could effectively and reliably predict energy consumption. The presented results, obtained considering a particularly interesting case of the South Italy area, show that the proposed approach outperforms state of the art methods. Hence, the proposed approach reveals appropriate for the problem of forecasting electricity consumption. This study, besides providing an important contribution to the energy load forecasting, confirms the suitability of genetic programming improved with semantic methods in addressing complex real-life applications.

Mauro Castelli; Leonardo Vanneschi; Matteo De Felice

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

4. Ocean Modelling and Prediction Matthew H. England and Peter R. Oke  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

be of enormous value. Modelling and pre- diction of ocean currents in coastal regions is important for many and rescue operations, and oil spills. Ocean currents near the coast also a ect beach conditions that impact of the built environment. At larger scales, vast ocean currents carry heat around the globe, a ecting climate

Oke, Peter

245

How ocean currents are studied  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

How infinite and boundless the ocean must have seemed to the first man to set foot upon its shore. Kind or stern, shallow or steep, the ocean’s shores have always held a peculiar fascination for man. The moist...

David Tolmazin

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Challenges in Ocean Energy Utilization  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ocean is a reservoir of energy. It is ... . Development of suitable cost effective technologies for power generation from different forms of ocean energy (like wave energy, tidal energy, Ocean Thermal Energy Conv...

S. Neelamani

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Ocean General Circulation Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

248

Chapter 16 - Ocean Engines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Publisher Summary Ocean thermal energy converters (OTECs) took advantage of the ocean acting as an immense collector and storer of solar radiation, thus delivering a steady flow of low-grade thermal energy. The ocean plays a similar role in relation to the wind energy, which is transformed into waves far steadier than the air currents that created them. Nevertheless, waves are neither steady nor concentrated enough to constitute a highly attractive energy source notwithstanding their large total power. There is little net horizontal motion of water in a surface ocean wave. A floating object drifts in the direction of the wave with about 1% of the wave velocity. A given elementary cell of water will move in a vertical circle, surging forward near the crest of the wave but receding by an almost equal amount at the trough. Any system in which the wave velocity depends on wavelength is called dispersive; hence the deep ocean is dispersive.

Aldo Vieira da Rosa

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

251

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

252

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

253

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

254

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

255

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

259

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Constraining oceanic dust deposition using surface ocean dissolved Al  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Constraining oceanic dust deposition using surface ocean dissolved Al Qin Han,1 J. Keith Moore,1; accepted 7 December 2007; published 12 April 2008. [1] We use measurements of ocean surface dissolved Al (DEAD) model to constrain dust deposition to the oceans. Our Al database contains all available

Zender, Charles

262

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

263

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

265

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

266

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

267

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

268

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

269

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

270

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

273

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

274

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

275

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

276

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

278

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

279

Simple ocean carbon cycle models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Simple ocean carbon cycle models can be used to calculate the rate at which the oceans are likely to absorb CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. For problems involving steady-state ocean circulation, well calibrated ocean models produce results that are very similar to results obtained using general circulation models. Hence, simple ocean carbon cycle models may be appropriate for use in studies in which the time or expense of running large scale general circulation models would be prohibitive. Simple ocean models have the advantage of being based on a small number of explicit assumptions. The simplicity of these ocean models facilitates the understanding of model results.

Caldeira, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hoffert, M.I. [New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Earth System Sciences; Siegenthaler, U. [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. fuer Physik

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A pertinent question, however, is: what is the worldwide power resource that could be extracted with OTEC plants without affecting the thermohaline ocean circulation? The estimate is that the maximum steady-state...

Dr. Luis A. Vega Ph.D.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A pertinent question, however, is: what is the worldwide power resource that could be extracted with OTEC plants without affecting the thermohaline ocean circulation? The estimate is that the maximum steady-state...

Dr. Luis A. Vega Ph.D.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Use of Ocean Energies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For converting the current of water for the production of electricity, there is a wide range of technological approaches. The Italian ocean current power plant named Kobold (Fig. 6.2) was the first commercial o...

Prof. Dr.-Ing Hermann-Josef Wagner…

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

285

MHK Technologies/Ocean | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Ocean Ocean < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage Ocean.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Hydro Green Energy LLC Project(s) where this technology is utilized *MHK Projects/Alaska 35 *MHK Projects/Maine 1 Project *MHK Projects/Mississippi 6 *MHK Projects/Mississippi 7 *MHK Projects/New York 1 *MHK Projects/New York 2 Technology Resource Click here Current/Tidal Technology Type Click here Cross Flow Turbine Technology Readiness Level Click here TRL 4: Proof of Concept Technology Description Hydro Green Energy's HydroKinetic Turbine Arrays operate differently than a traditional hydropower plant. Like a traditional hydropower station, the electricity that we produce is clean and renewable, however, there are significant differences. Hydro Green Energy's Krouse Turbines are kinetic turbines. This means that the renewable power that is generated comes from the energy in the "motion" of the moving water, i.e. the velocity of the moving water be it river, tidal or ocean current to generate river, tidal energy or ocean energy, respectively.

286

Flexible ocean upwelling pipe  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

In an ocean thermal energy conversion facility, a cold water riser pipe is releasably supported at its upper end by the hull of the floating facility. The pipe is substantially vertical and has its lower end far below the hull above the ocean floor. The pipe is defined essentially entirely of a material which has a modulus of elasticity substantially less than that of steel, e.g., high density polyethylene, so that the pipe is flexible and compliant to rather than resistant to applied bending moments. The position of the lower end of the pipe relative to the hull is stabilized by a weight suspended below the lower end of the pipe on a flexible line. The pipe, apart from the weight, is positively buoyant. If support of the upper end of the pipe is released, the pipe sinks to the ocean floor, but is not damaged as the length of the line between the pipe and the weight is sufficient to allow the buoyant pipe to come to a stop within the line length after the weight contacts the ocean floor, and thereafter to float submerged above the ocean floor while moored to the ocean floor by the weight. The upper end of the pipe, while supported by the hull, communicates to a sump in the hull in which the water level is maintained below the ambient water level. The sump volume is sufficient to keep the pipe full during heaving of the hull, thereby preventing collapse of the pipe.

Person, Abraham (Los Alamitos, CA)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

2012-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

289

Ocean Energy Resource Basics | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Hydropower Ocean Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Tidal Energy Wave Energy Ocean Resources Solar Wind Homes & Buildings Industry Vehicles & Fuels...

290

Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Report about the Ocean Thermal...

291

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

292

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

293

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

294

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Infrasonic ambient ocean noise: Northeast Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Measurements of ocean ambient noise were made at three widely separated deep?water bottom locations in the N. E. Pacific at eight frequencies in the range from 2.5–20.0 Hz for 40 consecutive days. Concurrent data on wind speed and wave height were collected. Analysis indicates that the spectrum level of infrasonicnoise is linearly related to the log of the wind speed above a threshold level. There is evidence that the noise can be directly associated with the wind rather than through the surface waves it produces. [Work supported by ONR.

Rudolph H. Nichols

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Incursion of the Pacific Ocean Water into the Indian Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Using the data collected during the International Indian Ocean Expedition, maps showing the distribution of depth ... became clear that low-salinity water from the Pacific intrudes into the western Indian Ocean t...

G S Sharma; A D Gouveia…

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

298

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

300

146 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL 27, NO.2, APRIL2002 r! The Long-TermEcosystem Observatory:An  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, observational data are collected from satellites, aircrafts, ships, fixed/relocatable moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles. The majority of the data are available in real-time allowing for adaptive sampling of episodic events and are assimilated into ocean forecast models. In this observationally rich environment

Moline, Mark

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Energy from the Ocean [and Discussion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...development among the ocean energy options, and other relatively...paper focuses on ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). However, much of the paper's content has relevance to the use of the other ocean energy sources. Techniques of ocean...

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

A numerical study for the optimal arrangement of ocean current turbine generators in the ocean current power parks  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The present paper deals with the investigation of the flow distribution in the ocean current power park in order to optimize the arrangement of the turbine generators in the sea and the lake sides. To produce more reliable results, the detailed geometry of the ocean current generators is included in the computational domain with frozen rotor method to consider rotating effect. The numerical results show the details of flow distribution in the ocean current power park and propose the appropriate arrangement of the turbine generators for the efficient operation, which is essential for possible maximum power generation.

Seung Ho Lee; Sang Hyuk Lee; Kyungsoo Jang; Jungeun Lee; Nahmkeon Hur

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

MHK Technologies/THOR Ocean Current Turbine | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

THOR Ocean Current Turbine THOR Ocean Current Turbine < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage THOR Ocean Current Turbine.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization THOR Turner Hunt Ocean Renewable LLC Technology Resource Click here Current Technology Type Click here Axial Flow Turbine Technology Readiness Level Click here TRL 5 6 System Integration and Technology Laboratory Demonstration Technology Description The THOR ocean current turbine ROCT is a tethered fully submersible hydrokinetic device with a single horizontal axis rotor that operates at constant speed by varying the depth of operation using a patented power feedback control technology Rotor diameters can reach 60 meters for a 2 0MW class turbine and operations can be conducted as deep as 250 meters Arrays of THOR s ROCTs can be located in outer continental shelf areas 15 to 100 miles offshore in well established ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream or the Kuroshio and deliver electrical power to onshore load centers via submarine transmission line

304

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

305

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Ocean Circulation Lynne D Talley  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the topography, with low pressure in the center. Ocean currents transport heat from the tropics to the poles have gone to sea. As knowledge about ocean currents and capabilities to observe it below the surfaceOcean Circulation Lynne D Talley Volume 1, The Earth system: physical and chemical dimensions

Talley, Lynne D.

307

Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

Not Available

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Released in the STEO June 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

310

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

313

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

314

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

315

ocean energy | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ocean energy ocean energy Dataset Summary Description This shapefile represents the seasonal winter depth profile to reach water at a temperature of 20ºC. Source NREL Date Released October 28th, 2012 (2 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords depth profile hydrokinetic ocean ocean energy ocean thermal energy conversion OTEC seawater cooling thermal Data application/zip icon OTEC Seawater Cooling 20ºC Depth Profile - Winter Average (zip, 1.1 MiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period March 2009 - February 2011 License License Other or unspecified, see optional comment below Comment This GIS data was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory ("NREL"), which is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE"). The user is granted the right, without any fee or cost, to use, copy, modify, alter, enhance and distribute this data for any purpose whatsoever, provided that this entire notice appears in all copies of the data. Further, the user of this data agrees to credit NREL in any publications or software that incorporate or use the data. Access to and use of the GIS data shall further impose the following obligations on the User. The names DOE/NREL may not be used in any advertising or publicity to endorse or promote any product or commercial entity using or incorporating the GIS data unless specific written authorization is obtained from DOE/NREL. The User also understands that DOE/NREL shall not be obligated to provide updates, support, consulting, training or assistance of any kind whatsoever with regard to the use of the GIS data. THE GIS DATA IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL DOE/NREL BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CLAIMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DATA OR PROFITS, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM AN ACTION IN CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS CLAIM THAT ARISES OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCESS OR USE OF THE GIS DATA. The User acknowledges that access to the GIS data is subject to U.S. Export laws and regulations and any use or transfer of the GIS data must be authorized under those regulations. The User shall not use, distribute, transfer, or transmit GIS data or any products incorporating the GIS data except in compliance with U.S. export regulations. If requested by DOE/NREL, the User agrees to sign written assurances and other export-related documentation as may be required to comply with U.S. export regulations.

316

HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODEL  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a crucial aspect of electric power system planning and operation. This paper presents a heuristic approach for optimal parameter estimation of long term load forecast models. The problem is viewed as an optimization one in which the goal is to minimize the total estimation error by properly adjusting the model coefficients. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the error associated with the estimated model parameters. Real data of Egyptian network is used to perform this study. Results are reported and compared to those obtained using the well known least error squares estimation technique. Comparison results are in favor of the proposed approach which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

M. R. AlRashidi; K. M. EL?Naggar

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Why Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean?  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean? Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean? The subarctic Pacific Ocean is one of the areas considered particularly vulnerable to acidification, which could affect the ocean's ability to act as a carbon sink. Global warming affects the food webs and biodiversity in marine ecosystems, especially in regions known as oxygen minimum zones where key components of the global carbon cycle take place. Oxygen minimum zones are found between 200 and 1,000 meters below sea level in the subarctic Pacific, the eastern South Pacific Ocean, the northern parts of the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, and off southwestern Africa. As global warming continues, researchers believe the oxygen levels in the oceans will decrease, a change that will extend the boundaries of the oxygen minimum

318

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

than relying solely on the simulated response to changing radiative forcing (Solomon et al. 2007 of techniques (e.g. Lohmann and Schneider 1999; Zanna and Tziperman 2005; Sevellec et al. 2008). The methodology

Hawkins, Ed

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

A rapid response nowcast/forecast system using multiply nested ocean models and distributed data systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Sandro Carnield a GKSS Research Center, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502: +49 4152 87 1525. E-mail address: onken@gkss.de (R. Onken). 1 Previous affiliation: SACLANT Undersea

Robinson, Allan R.

322

Assessment and evaluation of a safety factor with respect to ocean disposal of waste materials  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the oceans is essential if ocean dumping is to be continued. The author has surveyed the available literature, bioassay studies, and pertinent research concerning chronic effects and the risk they impose on the marine ecosystem. The main purpose... OPERATIONS 10 History of Ocean Dumping Corps of Engineers' Letters of No Objection 10 12 Types of Materials Dumped Dredge Spoils Industrial Wastes Municipal Wastes Radioactive Wastes Solid Wastes Military Wastes Construction Debris 13 13 15 15...

Zapatka, Thomas Francis

1976-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

326

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

328

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

330

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

331

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

332

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

333

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

334

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

336

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

337

Ocean dynamics and thermodynamics in the tropical Indo- Pacific region  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr. ,in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean associated with the

Drushka, Kyla

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

339

Makai Ocean Engineering, Inc.'s Recent OTEC Activities at NELHA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Makai Ocean Engineering, Inc.'s Recent OTEC Activities at NELHA Duke Hartman Vice President of the company and provide some details about one current project: Makai's OTEC demonstration plant, and operator of an Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) power plant and heat exchanger test facility at NELHA

Frandsen, Jannette B.

340

Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model ...

Caroline C. Ummenhofer; Franziska U. Schwarzkopf; Gary Meyers; Erik Behrens; Arne Biastoch; Claus W. Böning

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Weather satellites and the economic value of forecasts: evidence from the electric power industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather information routinely assists in managing resources more efficiently and reducing industrial operating costs. The electric energy industry in particular makes extensive use of weather information supplied by both government and commercial suppliers. Through direct purchases of weather data and information, and through participating in the increasing market for weather derivatives, this sector provides measurable indicators of the economic importance of weather information. Space weather in the form of magnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections from the sun creates geomagnetically induced currents that disturb the electric power grid, sometimes causing significant economic impacts on electric power distribution. This paper examines the use of space-derived weather information on the U.S. electric power industry. It also explores issues that may impair the most optimum use of the information and reviews the longer-term opportunities for employing weather data acquired from satellites in future commercial and government activity.

Henry R. Hertzfeld; Ray A. Williamson; Avery Sen

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

ARM - Lesson Plans: Ocean Currents  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ocean Currents Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global...

343

The Operational Eta Model Precipitation and Surface Hydrologic Cycle of the Columbia and Colorado Basins  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The surface hydrology of the United States’ western basins is investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational Eta Model forecasts. During recent years the model has been subject to changes and upgrades that ...

Yan Luo; Ernesto H. Berbery; Kenneth E. Mitchell

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

345

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

346

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

347

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

348

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

349

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

351

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Geoengineering Downwelling Ocean Currents: A Cost Assessment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Downwelling ocean currents carry carbon into the deep ocean (the solubility pump), and play a ... weakening of the NADW is modification of downwelling ocean currents, by an increase in carbon concentration or ......

S. Zhou; P. C. Flynn

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Legal Implications of CO2 Ocean Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, ocean currents may prevent stagnation or accumulatioLegal Implications of CO2 Ocean Storage Jason Heinrich Working Paper Laboratory for Energy #12;Introduction Ocean sequestration of CO2, a potentially significant technique to be used

355

Ocean currents help explain population genetic structure  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...original work is properly cited. Ocean currents help explain population genetic...larval dispersal estimates based on ocean current observations, we demonstrate...Data-assimilated models of ocean currents for the study region were produced...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Configuration of a Southern Ocean Storm Track  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Diagnostics of ocean variability that reflect and influence local transport properties of heat and chemical species vary by an order of magnitude along the Southern Ocean’s Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Topographic “hotspots” are important ...

Tobias Bischoff; Andrew F. Thompson

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Pelagic Polychaetes of the Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean CLAPARtDE,E. 1868. LesPolyc'haetes of the Pacific Ocean KINBERG, J. G. H. 1866.Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean TREADWELL, A. L. 1906.

Dales, K Phillips

1957-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Human-centered systems analysis of mixed equipage in ocean air traffic control  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technical capabilities for improved communication, surveillance, and navigation (CNS) over the oceans are currently available. However, all aircraft operators will not equip simultaneously because of the high costs required. ...

Major, Laura M. (Laura Mary), 1980-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

The Plastic Ocean Michael Gonsior  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Plastic Ocean Michael Gonsior Bonnie Monteleone, William Cooper, Jennifer O'Keefe, Pamela Seaton, and Maureen Conte #12;#12;#12;Plastic does not biodegrade it photo-degrades breaking down is the plastic cheese wrap? Unfortunately, marine creatures mistake plastics in the ocean for food #12

Boynton, Walter R.

362

GENERATING ELECTRICITY USING OCEAN WAVES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GENERATING ELECTRICITY USING OCEAN WAVES A RENEWABLE SOURCE OF ENERGY REPORT FOR THE HONG KONG ELECTRIC COMPANY LIMITED Dr L F Yeung Mr Paul Hodgson Dr Robin Bradbeer July 2007 #12;Ocean Waves and construction of equipment that could measure and log wave conditions and tide levels at Hoi Ha Wan. Prototypes

Bradbeer, Robin Sarah

363

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate pickups. This work describes an artificial intelligence method to aid the operator in taking decisions during system restoration by estimating residential load behaviour parameters such as overload in buses and the necessary time to recover steady-state power consumption. This method uses a fuzzy rule-based system to forecast the residential load, obtaining correct estimates with low computational cost. Test results using actual substation data are presented.

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Ocean Navitas | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Navitas Navitas Jump to: navigation, search Name Ocean Navitas Address Nursery House Place United Kingdom Zip DN21 5BQ Sector Ocean Product Ocean Navitas was incorporated in May 2006 by experienced engineers, businessmen and sailing enthusiasts David Hunt, James McCague and Simon Condry. Website http://www.oceannavitas.com Region United Kingdom References Ocean NavitasUNIQ75db538f85b32404-ref-000014E2-QINU LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This company is listed in the Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Database. This company is involved in the following MHK Projects: Ocean Navitas NaREC This company is involved in the following MHK Technologies: Aegir Dynamo This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it.

365

Ocean - FAQ | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FAQ FAQ Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov » Communities » Ocean Frequently Asked Questions Following are some Frequently Asked Questions, we hope to add to this list as we hear from you. Questions What is Ocean.data.gov? How can I use this resource? What data can I expect to find here? Where do these data come from? Can data from State and academic sources be included in this portal? Who can suggest data and information to be included in Ocean.data.gov? Who decides what data are included? How do I get involved? How does this differ from other data efforts such as regional data portals? Where do I find information about data standards, metadata standards, and formats? Can we provide feedback about a particular dataset?

366

Mesoscale Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

heat flux, and wind power input to the ocean. Geophys. Res.Powers and Stoelinga (2000). They developed a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean-

Seo, Hyodae

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Mesoscale coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

heat flux, and wind power input to the ocean. Geophys. Res.Powers and Stoelinga (2000). They developed a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean-

Seo, Hyodae

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Aspects of modeling the North Pacific Ocean.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Three aspects of the problem of modeling North Pacific Ocean climate are investigated: the effect of viscosity on effective model resolution, the effect of ocean… (more)

Dawe, Jordan Tyler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

370

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

371

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

373

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holt’s additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corberán-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermúdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

378

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

380

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

383

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

385

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

391

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

392

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Héctor Rodríguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Net Interchange Schedule Forecasting of Electric Power Exchange for RTO/ISOs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Neighboring independent system operators (ISOs) exchange electric power to enable efficient and reliable operation of the grid. Net interchange (NI) schedule is the sum of the transactions (in MW) between an ISO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the amount of actual NI can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents results of a preliminary investigation into various methods of prediction that may result in improved prediction accuracy. The methods studied are linear regression, forward regression, stepwise regression, and support vector machine (SVM) regression. The work to date is not yet conclusive. The hope is to explore the effectiveness of other prediction methods and apply all methods to at least one new data set. This should enable more confidence in the conclusions.

Ferryman, Thomas A.; Haglin, David J.; Vlachopoulou, Maria; Yin, Jian; Shen, Chao; Tuffner, Francis K.; Lin, Guang; Zhou, Ning; Tong, Jianzhong

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

394

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

396

Ocean Energy Technology Basics | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Ocean Energy Technology Basics Ocean Energy Technology Basics Ocean Energy Technology Basics August 16, 2013 - 4:18pm Addthis Text Version Photo of low waves in the ocean. A dock is visible in the background. Oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth's surface. As the world's largest solar collectors, oceans contain thermal energy from the sun and produce mechanical energy from tides and waves. Even though the sun affects all ocean activity, the gravitational pull of the moon primarily drives tides, and wind powers ocean waves. Learn more about: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Tidal Energy Wave Energy Ocean Resources Addthis Related Articles Energy Department Releases New Energy 101 Video on Ocean Power A map generated by Georgia Tech's tidal energy resource database shows mean current speed of tidal streams. The East Coast, as shown above, has strong tides that could be tapped to produce energy. | Photo courtesy of Georgia Institute of Technology

397

GRADUATE RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN APPLIED SCIENCE Effects of Hydroelectric Operations in Canadian Aquatic Ecosystems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GRADUATE RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN APPLIED SCIENCE Effects of Hydroelectric Operations in Canadian with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (6 scientists) and 3 major hydroelectric companies (Nalcor, Manitoba Hydro

Cooke, Steven J.

398

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

399

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

400

Operations Information  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Standards BPA Operations Information (OPI) Transmission Services operates and plans for regional and national system needs. Transmission Services coordinates system operation and...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

A REVIEW OF GLOBAL OCEAN TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by taking an inventory of changes in energy storage. The main storage is in the ocean, the latest values, Energy Sustainable Economic, Earth's energy imbalance, and thermosteric sea level rise. Up-to-date estimates are provided

402

composition of putative oceans on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;Results: Oceanic water composition · Oceanic water is a NaCl-CaCl2 solution · Large Cl mass · Cl in a "soda ocean" Temperature, o C 100 200 300 400 500 Concentration,mole/kgH2O 0.01 0.1 1 Cl- CaCl2 CaCl+ Na calcite · Quartz · Na-K feldspars · Anhydrite · Pyrite · Hematite/magnetite · Evaporites: NaCl+CaCl2 350o

Treiman, Allan H.

403

Heat Content Changes in the Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Heat Content Changes in the Pacific Ocean The Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Cli- mate (ATOC assimilating ocean observations and changes expected from surface heat fluxes as measured by the daily National are a result of advection of heat by ocean currents. We calculate that the most likely cause of the discrepancy

Frandsen, Jannette B.

404

MHK Technologies/Ocean Energy Rig | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Rig Rig < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage Ocean Energy Rig.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Free Flow 69 Technology Resource Click here Current Technology Type Click here Axial Flow Turbine Technology Readiness Level Click here TRL 4 Proof of Concept Technology Description The Ocean Energy Rig is a hybrid concept harnessing tidal stream with increased velocity from venturi system wave and wind power The rig also uses solar panels to power computers and warning lights Other unique features include a water ballasting system with automatic self levelling and wave ramps to maximize FreeFlow 69 s new wave power device It is envisaged that the Ocean Energy Rig would be assembled and maintained in dry docks and would be towed out into position before being semi submerged and anchored for operation Power output of the production model would be at least 10MW

405

Ocean Sci., 3, 417427, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/417/2007/  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Deacon Cell. When the ocean currents are averaged zon- ally to produce a meridional overturningOcean Sci., 3, 417­427, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/417/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science On the fast response of the Southern Ocean to changes

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

406

Silicic acid leakage from the Southern Ocean: Opposing effects of nutrient uptake and oceanic circulation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the thermocline region of low latitudes. The power of Southern Ocean intermediate waters to affect phytoplanktonSilicic acid leakage from the Southern Ocean: Opposing effects of nutrient uptake and oceanic in formation rate of Southern Ocean intermediate waters. Comparison of d30 Si records from the Southern Ocean

Pahnke, Katharina

407

Toward Energetically Consistent Ocean Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Possibilities to construct a realistic quasi-global ocean model in Boussinesq approximation with a closed energy cycle are explored in this study. In such a model, the energy related to the mean variables would interact with all parameterized ...

Carsten Eden; Lars Czeschel; Dirk Olbers

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Ocean Currents at Rocas Alijos  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The flow of oceanic water over and around an obstacle such as a seamount or island has the potential to profoundly affect the local biological community (Hamner and Hauri, 1986; Wolanski and Hamner, 1988). If ...

Shirley Vaughan; Ronald K. Skinner; Robert W. Schmieder; Brian McGuire

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Conference on oceans draws Clinton  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Against the tranquil backdrop of Monterey Bay, Calif., President Bill Clinton earlier this month signed a measure extending the U.S. ban on offshore oil drilling, and he proposed several sweeping initiatives to protect, restore, and explore the oceans....

ELIZABETH WILSON

1998-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

410

Pacific Ocean Islands – Editorial Introduction  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Islands in the Pacific Ocean are of three kinds (Nunn 2005). ... Most of the islands lie in the SW Pacific, but the Galapagos, Clipperton, and Easter ... Island are volcanic islands rising from the East Pacific R...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

DSM Will Acquire Ocean Nutrition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

DSM Will Acquire Ocean Nutrition ... Dutch chemical maker DSM will spend about $530 million to acquire Ocean Nutrition Canada, which calls itself the world’s largest supplier of omega-3 fatty acids to the dietary supplement and food manufacturing markets. ... DSM says the acquisition is the fifth purchase it has made in the nutrition field since September 2010, when it announced a corporate strategy to expand in the health, nutrition, and industrial materials markets. ...

MICHAEL MCCOY

2012-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

412

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

414

Drilling Waste Management Fact Sheet: Discharge to Ocean  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Discharge to Ocean Discharge to Ocean Fact Sheet - Discharge to Ocean Past Practices In early offshore oil and gas development, drilling wastes were generally discharged from the platforms directly to the ocean. Until several decades ago, the oceans were perceived to be limitless dumping grounds. During the 1970s and 1980s, however, evidence mounted that some types of drilling waste discharges could have undesirable effects on local ecology, particularly in shallow water. When water-based muds (WBMs) were used, only limited environmental harm was likely to occur, but when operators employed oil-based muds (OBMs) on deeper sections of wells, the resulting cuttings piles created impaired zones beneath and adjacent to the platforms. At some North Sea locations, large piles of oil-based cuttings remain on the sea floor near the platforms. Piles of oil-based cuttings can affect the local ecosystem in three ways: by smothering organisms, by direct toxic effect of the drilling waste, and by anoxic conditions caused by microbial degradation of the organic components in the waste. Current regulatory controls minimize the impacts of permitted discharges of cuttings.

415

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Definition: Operating Reserve | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Operating Reserve Operating Reserve Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Operating Reserve That capability above firm system demand required to provide for regulation, load forecasting error, equipment forced and scheduled outages and local area protection. It consists of spinning and non-spinning reserve.[1] View on Wikipedia Wikipedia Definition In electricity networks, the operating reserve is the generating capacity available to the system operator within a short interval of time to meet demand in case a generator goes down or there is another disruption to the supply. Most power systems are designed so that, under normal conditions, the operating reserve is always at least the capacity of the largest generator plus a fraction of the peak load. The operating reserve

417

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Upper-Ocean Processes under the Stratus Cloud Deck in the Southeast Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The annual mean heat budget of the upper ocean beneath the stratocumulus/stratus cloud deck in the southeast Pacific is estimated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and an eddy-resolving Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Both are ...

Yangxing Zheng; George N. Kiladis; Toshiaki Shinoda; E. Joseph Metzger; Harley E. Hurlburt; Jialin Lin; Benjamin S. Giese

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Open ocean DMS air/sea fluxes over the eastern South Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

over the North Pacific Ocean, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. ,air/sea fluxes over S. Pacific Ocean References Asher, W.in the equa- torial Pacific Ocean ( 1982 to 1996): Evidence

Marandino, C. A; De Bruyn, W. J; Miller, S. D; Saltzman, E. S

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1980. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Draft ProgrammaticPlan. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. U.S. DOE Assistantl OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

Sands, M.Dale

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. DOE.ocean thermal energy conversion. A preliminary engineeringCompany. Ocean thermal energy conversion mission analysis

Sands, M. D.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants byFifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference, February1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot plant

Sullivan, S.M.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC) plants byfield of ocean thermal energy conversion discharges. I~. L.Sixth Ocean Thermal Energy conversion Conference. June 19-

Sullivan, S.M.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.

Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh; Mejia, John; Hatchett, Benjamin; McCord, Travis; McLean, Julie; Dorman, Clive

2013-04-11T23:59:59.000Z

428

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

429

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

The Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite R-Series Program  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: GOES-R is a satellite series carrying six instruments designed to enhance weather forecasting, severeGOES-R The Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite R-Series Program Frequently Asked. The GOES-R series of satellites will fly improved spacecraft and instrument technologies, for more timely

Mojzsis, Stephen J.

432

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

433

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

435

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 12–24-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

446

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

447

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Tide operated power generating apparatus  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An improved tide operated power generating apparatus is disclosed in which a hollow float, rising and falling with the ocean tide, transmits energy to a power generator. The improvement comprises means for filling the float with water during the incoming tide to provide a substantial increase in the float dead weight during the outgoing tide. Means are further provided to then empty the float before the outgoing tide whereby the float becomes free to rise again on the next incoming tide.

Kertzman, H. Z.

1981-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

450

Definition: Optimized Generator Operation | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Optimized Generator Operation Optimized Generator Operation Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Optimized Generator Operation Better forecasting and monitoring of load and grid performance would enable grid operators to dispatch a more efficient mix of generation that could be optimized to reduce cost. The coordinated operation of energy storage, distributed generation, or plug-in electric vehicle assets could also result in completely avoiding central generation dispatch.[1] Related Terms sustainability References ↑ SmartGrid.gov 'Description of Benefits' An LikeLike UnlikeLike You like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. inline Glossary Definition Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Definition:Optimized_Generator_Operation&oldid=502509" Categories:

451

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Ocean - Tools | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Tools Tools Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov » Communities » Ocean Decision-Support Tools (DSTs): Science and information are fundamental to effective marine planning. Marine planning involves inclusive discussion and analyses of the status and potential uses of 3-dimensional areas of coastal, marine and Great Lakes ecosystems (including the water column) and their potential changes over time. Relevant spatial data and derived interpretive and analytical products (i.e. decision-support tools) help inform all phases of the marine planning process. To date, several decision-support tools have been develop to support marine planning efforts. Marine planners should carefully evaluate which tools best apply to their region or specific issue or project. Below is a list of

453

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

2013-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

454

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

455

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

456

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

457

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

458

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

459

Weak economy and politics worry US coal operators  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A potential decrease in demand, a new administration, and production constraints have coal operators worried about prospects for 2009. This and other interesting facts are revealed in this 2009 forecast by the journal Coal Age. Results are presented of the survey answered by 69 of the 646 executives contacted, on such questions about expected coal production, coal use, attitude in the coal industry, capital expenditure on types of equipment and productive capacity. Coal Age forecasts a 2.3% decline in coal production in 2009, down to 1.145 billion tons from 1.172 billion tons. 8 figs.

Fiscor, S.

2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

460

Ocean Color Web | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ocean Color Web Ocean Color Web Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov » Communities » Ocean » Data Ocean Color Web Dataset Summary Description A comprehensive image analysis package for the processing, display, analysis, and quality control of ocean color data. Tags {Ocean,"water color",spectrometer,"sea viewing",MODIS,"marine biology",NASA,GSFC,"Goddard Space Flight Center"} Dataset Ratings Overall 0 No votes yet Data Utility 0 No votes yet Usefulness 0 No votes yet Ease of Access 0 No votes yet Dataset Additional Information Last Updated 15-Jan-2010 Publisher National Aeronautics and Space Administration Contact Name Contact Email Gene.C.Feldman@nasa.gov Unique Identifier NASA-1547

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

On Rayleigh Waves Across the Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......research-article Articles On Rayleigh Waves Across the Pacific Ocean K. E. Bullen University College, Auckland, N. Z. ON RAYLEIGH WAVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN K. E. Bullen (Received 1939November 9) The Bering......

K. E. Bullen

1939-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Green Ocean Wave Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Ocean Wave Air Piston This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleGreenOceanWaveEnergy&oldid769161...

463

Energy from the Ocean [and Discussion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...October 1982 research-article Energy from the Ocean [and Discussion...Lennard J. H. Turner P. Wadhams Renewable ocean energy sources can eventually supply a large fraction of man's energy needs, starting in the 1990s...

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Ocean tide energy converter  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A tide motor energy source includes a tidal piston with a valved chamber. The piston drives a hydraulic ram to generate electrical power through a pressure accumulator and hydraulic motor. The ram can be locked hydraulically to enable the tidal piston to be held fixed at a desired elevation and the valves in the chamber permit it to be filled with water or air. The piston with its chamber filled with air at its low tide position and then released for controlled ascent while submerged acts as a submerged float for driving the ram upwardly while the tide runs in during one phase of its operation. The piston with its chamber filled with water while locked at its highest position as the tide begins to run out, and then released to fall under control, acts as a weight suspended in air after the water level drops below the piston for driving the ram downwardly during the second phase of its operation. The rising and falling motion of the tidal piston is used as the energy source.

Rainey, D.E.

1980-06-24T23:59:59.000Z

465

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

466

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

467

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

468

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

469

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

470

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

471

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

472

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

473

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

474

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

476

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

477

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

478

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

479

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

480

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "operational ocean forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

482

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

483

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

484

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

485

Oceanic nutrient and oxygen transports and bounds on export production during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of intense climate interest. A large fraction of the carbon fixed in the oceanic surface waters is recycledOceanic nutrient and oxygen transports and bounds on export production during the World Ocean are estimated from selected hydrographic sections from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment spanning the world

Wunsch, Carl

486

Ocean Mixing and Climate ChangeOcean Mixing and Climate Change Factors inducing seawater mixing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and the reverse current created when the fluid flows past an obstacle. Ocean Eddies range: cm-100 km. When two energy drives global winds ­ Latitudinal wind belts produce ocean currents · Determine circulation layer depth ~100 m · Heat transfer from equator to pole by ocean currents · Oceans redistribute about

Russell, Lynn

487

Ocean Sci., 4, 1529, 2008 www.ocean-sci.net/4/15/2008/  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is everywhere perpendicular to the local direction of gravity. If there were no waves or currents in the oceanOcean Sci., 4, 15­29, 2008 www.ocean-sci.net/4/15/2008/ © Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science An Oceanographer's Guide to GOCE and the Geoid C. W

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

488

Ocean Sci., 3, 363377, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/363/2007/  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

currents and water mass properties intriguing texture. In the upper ocean observational evidenceOcean Sci., 3, 363­377, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/363/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science Variability of Antarctic intermediate Water properties

Boyer, Edmond

489

Indian Ocean Surface Circulations and Their Connection To Indian Ocean Dipole, Identified  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean Surface Currents Analysis Realtime (OSCAR) Data Advisor : Peter C Chu Second Reader : Charles Sun Aldisrupting Al--QaidaQaida''s networks network IraqIraq''s Instabilitys Instability #12;Ocean Surface Currents Analysis ­ Realtime (OSCAR) Data Base Ocean Surface currents data available for whole world' oceans at www

Chu, Peter C.

490

Ocean Science, 1, 97112, 2005 www.ocean-science.net/os/1/97/  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

oceanic currents by reducing the shears between them (Hansen and Paul, 1984; Weisberg, 1984Ocean Science, 1, 97­112, 2005 www.ocean-science.net/os/1/97/ SRef-ID: 1812-0792/os/2005-1-97 European Geosciences Union Ocean Science Multi-year satellite observations of instability waves

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

491

Ocean Sci., 3, 223228, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/223/2007/  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and regional sea level changes associated with changing currents and mass distribution in the ocean. The studyOcean Sci., 3, 223­228, 2007 www.ocean-sci.net/3/223/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Ocean Science Towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

492

Constraining Oceanic dust deposition using surface 1 ocean dissolved Al 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Constraining Oceanic dust deposition using surface 1 ocean dissolved Al 2 Qin Han, J. Keith Moore, Charles Zender, Chris Measures, David Hydes 3 Abstract 4 We use measurements of ocean surface dissolved Al and Deposition 6 (DEAD) model, to constrain dust deposition to the oceans. Our Al database contains 7 all

Zender, Charles

493

Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability CAROLINE C. UMMENHOFER*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability CAROLINE C is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

494

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Oceans and Human Health Initiative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. We receive many benefits from the oceans from seafood, recreation and transportation industriesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Oceans and Human Health Initiative (OHHI) is taking a new look at how the health of our ocean impacts our own health and well- being, and in turn how

495

Oceans and ClimateOceans and Climate PeterPeter RhinesRhines 11  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

say, the ocean is a great thermometer/thermometer/halometerhalometer Levitus, Antonov, Boyer+ Stephens

496

OceanEnergyMMS.p65  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Minerals Management Service, U.S. Department of the Interior Ocean Energy PAGE 1 Minerals Management Service, U.S. Department of the Interior Ocean Energy PAGE 1 Teacher Guide .......................................................... 2 Related National Science Standards .......................... 3 Introduction to Ocean Energy .................................. 4 Petroleum & Natural Gas ......................................... 5 Natural Oil and Gas Seeps ........................................ 7 Methane Hydrates .................................................... 8 Solar Energy .............................................................. 9 Wind Energy ........................................................... 10 Wave Energy ........................................................... 11 OTEC: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion .............

497

Coupling Mineral Carbonation and Ocean Liming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

systems suggests that, unless air capture significantly outperforms these systems, it is likely to require more than 400 kJ of work per mol of CO2, requiring it to be powered by CO2-neutral power sources in order to be CO2 neg. ... by the oceans at an increased rate if ocean alky. ... Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is altering the seawater chem. of the world's oceans with consequences for marine biota. ...

P. Renforth; T. Kruger

2013-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

498

Forcing of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Interannual Variations of the Tropical Pacific Ocean: Roles of the Indonesian Throughflow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Controlled numerical experiments using ocean-only and ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation models show that interannual sea level depression in the eastern Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events forces enhanced Indonesian ...

Dongliang Yuan; Jing Wang; Tengfei Xu; Peng Xu; Zhou Hui; Xia Zhao; Yihua Luan; Weipeng Zheng; Yongqiang Yu

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Ocean viscosity and climate M. Jochum,1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean viscosity and climate M. Jochum,1 G. Danabasoglu,1 M. Holland,1 Y.-O. Kwon,1 and W. G. Large1] The impacts of parameterized lateral ocean viscosity on climate are explored using three 120-year integrations of a fully coupled climate model. Reducing viscosity leads to a generally improved ocean circulation

Jochum, Markus

500

ACR 891 (?) Ocean Policy: Current Issues seminar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ACR 891 (?) Ocean Policy: Current Issues seminar Fall, 2013 (2 cr, + 1 cr optional) Professor of a common pool resource than the world's oceans it can only be the atmosphere. The latter is currently neglected. This seminar is intended to introduce students to some of the current issues in ocean policy