National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for operational ocean forecast

  1. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  3. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  4. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  5. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  6. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  7. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  8. Ocean thermal energy conversion: Historical highlights, status, and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dugger, G.L.; Avery, W.H.; Francis, E.J.; Richards, D.

    1983-07-01

    In 1881, d'Arsonval conceived the closed-Rankine-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) system in which a working fluid is vaporized by heat exchange with cold water drawn from a 700-1200 m depth. In 1930, Claude demonstrated an open-cycle process in Cuba. Surface water was flash-vaporized at 3 kPa to drive a turbine directly (no secondary working fluid) and then was condensed by direct contact with water drawn from a 700-m depth through a 1.6m-diam, 1.75-km-long cold-water pipe (CWP). From a delta T of 14/sup 0/C his undersized turbine generated 22 kW. In 1956 a French team designed a 3.5-MW (net) open-cycle plant for installation off Abidjan on the Ivory Coast of Africa and demonstrated the necessary CWP deployment. The at-sea demonstrations by Mini-OTEC and OTEC-1 and other recent advances in OTEC technology summarized herein represent great progress. All of the types of plants proposed for the DOE's PON program may be worthy of development; certainly work on a grazing plant is needed. Our estimates indicate that the U.S. goals established by Public Law 96-310 leading to 10 GW of OTEC power and energy product equivalents by 1999 are achievable, provided that adequate federal financial incentives are retained to assure the building of the first few plants.

  9. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  10. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  12. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  14. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  16. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  17. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  18. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  19. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  20. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  1. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  3. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  4. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 2: Overview and invited papers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-05-15

    This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes.

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  7. Identification of types of businesses with potential interest in operating and/or exporting ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-09-01

    This study describes the characteristics of three selected Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)-based lines of business, examines other lines of business and identifies those with similar characteristics, and indicates the types of businesses/corporations that could be expected to have potential interest in operating and/or exporting OTEC plants. An OTEC line of business model is developed to assist companies in making an internal corporate assessment as to whether OTEC should be in their business plan.

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  10. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  11. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  13. Development of an operational global ocean climatology through the use of remotely sensed sea surface temperature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winter, T.M.

    1995-05-09

    Monthly mean satellite-derived sea surface temperature SST data have been derived globally using daytime and nighttime AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) multi-channel data. From a 12 year data set (1982-1993), valid monthly daytime and nighttime climatologies were created using an eight year subset (1984-1990, 1993). Based on buoy comparisons, four years were omitted due to volcanic aerosol corruption (El Chichon 1982/83, Mt. Pinatubo 1991/92). These resulting monthly climatologies provide SST fields at approximately 1/3rd degree latitude/longitude resolution. Difference fields have been created comparing the new satellite climatology with the older and coarser-resolution climatology constructed from conventional SST data. Regional and zonal climatology differences were also created to highlight the deficiencies, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, in the older climatology believed to result primarily from a lack of buoy/ship (in situ) data. Such comparisons made it clear that the satellite climatology provided a much better product. Ocean current systems, El Nino, La Nina, and other water mass characteristics all appear with better detail and accuracy within the high-resolution satellite climatology.

  14. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  15. Results of scoping tests for open-cycle OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) components operating with seawater

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zangrando, F; Bharathan, D; Green, H J; Link, H F; Parsons, B K; Parsons, J M; Pesaran, A A; Panchal, C B

    1990-09-01

    This report presents comprehensive documentation of the experimental research conducted on open-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OC-OTEC) components operating with seawater as a working fluid. The results of this research are presented in the context of previous analysis and fresh-water testing; they provide a basis for understanding and predicting with confidence the performance of all components of an OC-OTEC system except the turbine. Seawater tests have confirmed the results that were obtained in fresh-water tests and predicted by the analytical models of the components. A sound technical basis has been established for the design of larger systems in which net power will be produced for the first time from OC-OTEC technology. Design and operation of a complete OC-OTEC system that produces power will provide sufficient confidence to warrant complete transfer of OC-OTEC technology to the private sector. Each components performance is described in a separate chapter written by the principal investigator responsible for technical aspects of the specific tests. Chapters have been indexed separately for inclusion on the data base.

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  18. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  20. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  1. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  3. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  4. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  5. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  6. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  7. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  8. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  9. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  10. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  12. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  13. New Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for Offshore Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Production and Emergency Rescue Missions | Department of Energy Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for Offshore Energy Production and Emergency Rescue Missions New Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for Offshore Energy Production and Emergency Rescue Missions April 11, 2016 - 10:40am Addthis Ocean surface current velocities on image of sea surface temperatures, March 29, 2015. Figure from “Real Time Observing and Forecasting of Loop Currents in

  14. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  15. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  16. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  18. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  19. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  20. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  1. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  2. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  4. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  5. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  6. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  7. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  8. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  9. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  10. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  11. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  12. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  13. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  14. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  16. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  17. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  18. Turbines in the ocean

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.G.W.; Charlier, R.H.

    1981-09-01

    It is noted that the relatively high-speed ocean currents flowing northward along the east coast of the U.S. may be able to supply a significant proportion of the future electric power requirements of urban areas. The Gulf Stream core lies only about 20 miles east of Miami here its near-surface water reaches velocities of 4.3 miles per hour. Attention is called to the estimate that the energy available in the current of the Gulf Stream adjacent to Florida is approximately equivalent to that generated by 25 1,000-megawatt power plants. It is also contended that this power could be produced at competitive prices during the 1980s using large turbines moored below the ocean surface near the center of the Stream. Assuming an average ocean-current speed between 4 and 5 knots at the current core, the power density of a hydroturbine could reach 410 watts per square foot, about 100 times that of a wind-driven device of similar scale operating in an airflow of approximately 11 knots.

  19. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  20. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  1. ocean energy technologies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Tribal Energy Program Intellectual Property Current EC Partnerships How to Partner Small ... SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers ocean energy technologies HomeTag:ocean ...

  2. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  5. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  6. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  7. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  8. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  10. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  11. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  12. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  13. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  14. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  16. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  17. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  18. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  20. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  3. Ocean Energy Technology Overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2009-08-05

    Introduction to and overview of ocean renewable energy resources and technologies prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy management Program.

  4. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  5. Operation Schedule

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operation Schedule Daily Hours of Operation

  6. Ocean thermal energy conversion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Avery, W.H.

    1983-03-17

    A brief explanation of the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) concept and an estimate of the amount of energy that can be produced from the ocean resource without introducing environmental concerns are presented. Use of the OTEC system to generate electric power and products which can replace fossil fuels is shown. The OTEC program status and its prospects for the future are discussed.

  7. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  8. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  9. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  11. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  14. Ocean energy program summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    The oceans are the world's largest solar energy collector and storage system. Covering 71% of the earth's surface, they collect and store this energy as waves, currents, and thermal and salinity gradients. The purpose of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Ocean Energy Technology (OET) Program is to develop techniques that harness this ocean energy cost-effectively and in a way that does not harm the environment. The program seeks to develop ocean energy technology to a point where industry can accurately assess whether the technology is a viable energy conversion alternative, or supplement, to current power-generating systems. In past studies, DOE identified ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), which uses the temperature difference between warm surface water and cold deep water, as the most promising of the ocean energy technologies. As a result, the OET Program is concentrating on research that advances the OTEC technology. The program also continues to monitor and study developments in wave energy, ocean current, and salinity gradient concepts; but it is not actively developing these technologies now. 13 figs.

  15. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  16. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  17. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  18. MHK Projects/Makai Ocean Energy Research Center | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Project Details Makai Ocean Engineering has designed, owns, and operates a closed-cycle OTEC system in Kailua-Kona Hawaii. True deep cold seawater is drawn from a depth of about...

  19. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  20. Flexible ocean upwelling pipe

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Person, Abraham

    1980-01-01

    In an ocean thermal energy conversion facility, a cold water riser pipe is releasably supported at its upper end by the hull of the floating facility. The pipe is substantially vertical and has its lower end far below the hull above the ocean floor. The pipe is defined essentially entirely of a material which has a modulus of elasticity substantially less than that of steel, e.g., high density polyethylene, so that the pipe is flexible and compliant to rather than resistant to applied bending moments. The position of the lower end of the pipe relative to the hull is stabilized by a weight suspended below the lower end of the pipe on a flexible line. The pipe, apart from the weight, is positively buoyant. If support of the upper end of the pipe is released, the pipe sinks to the ocean floor, but is not damaged as the length of the line between the pipe and the weight is sufficient to allow the buoyant pipe to come to a stop within the line length after the weight contacts the ocean floor, and thereafter to float submerged above the ocean floor while moored to the ocean floor by the weight. The upper end of the pipe, while supported by the hull, communicates to a sump in the hull in which the water level is maintained below the ambient water level. The sump volume is sufficient to keep the pipe full during heaving of the hull, thereby preventing collapse of the pipe.

  1. Simple ocean carbon cycle models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldeira, K.; Hoffert, M.I.; Siegenthaler, U.

    1994-02-01

    Simple ocean carbon cycle models can be used to calculate the rate at which the oceans are likely to absorb CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. For problems involving steady-state ocean circulation, well calibrated ocean models produce results that are very similar to results obtained using general circulation models. Hence, simple ocean carbon cycle models may be appropriate for use in studies in which the time or expense of running large scale general circulation models would be prohibitive. Simple ocean models have the advantage of being based on a small number of explicit assumptions. The simplicity of these ocean models facilitates the understanding of model results.

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. Ocean energy program summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    The oceans are the world's largest solar energy collector and storage system. Covering 71{percent} of the earth's surface, this stored energy is realized as waves, currents, and thermal salinity gradients. The purpose of the federal Ocean Energy Technology (OET) Program is to develop techniques that harness this ocean energy in a cost-effective and environmentally acceptable manner. The OET Program seeks to develop ocean energy technology to a point where the commercial sector can assess whether applications of the technology are viable energy conversion alternatives or supplements to systems. Past studies conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) have identified ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) as the largest potential contributor to United States energy supplies from the ocean resource. As a result, the OET Program concentrates on research to advance OTEC technology. Current program emphasis has shifted to open-cycle OTEC power system research because the closed-cycle OTEC system is at a more advanced stage of development and has already attracted industrial interest. During FY 1989, the OET Program focused primarily on the technical uncertainties associated with near-shore open-cycle OTEC systems ranging in size from 2 to 15 MW{sub e}. Activities were performed under three major program elements: thermodynamic research and analysis, experimental verification and testing, and materials and structures research. These efforts addressed a variety of technical problems whose resolution is crucial to demonstrating the viability of open-cycle OTEC technology. This publications is one of a series of documents on the Renewable Energy programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. An overview of all the programs is available, entitled Programs in Renewable Energy.

  4. Initial Value Predictability of Intrinsic Oceanic Modes and Implications for Decadal Prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the artclimate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of tbe predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  6. COLLOQUIUM: Ocean Acoustic Ecology: Great Whales, Ocean Scales...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    March 23, 2016, 4:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: Ocean Acoustic Ecology: Great Whales, Ocean Scales, Big Data Dr. Christopher Clark Cornell University ...

  7. Ocean Barrier Layers Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  8. Oceans '86 conference record

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    These five volumes represent the proceedings of the Oceans '86 Conference Washington, DC, 23-25 September 1986. Volume 1 includes papers on Underwater Photography and Sensing; Marine Recreation; Diving; CTACTS (Charleston Tactical Aircrew Combat Training System); Offshore and Coastal Structures; Underwater Welding, Burning and Cutting; Advances in Ocean Mapping; Ocean Energy; Biofouling and Corrosion; Moorings, Cables and Connections; Marine Minerals; Remote Sensing and Satellites; and Acoustics Analysis. Volume 2 covers Data Base Management; Modeling and Simulation; Ocean Current Simulation; Instrumentation; Artificial Reefs and Fisheries; US Status and Trends; Education and Technology Transfer; Economic Potential and Coastal Zone Management; and Water Quality. Volume 3 includes papers on National and Regional Monitoring Strategies; New Techniques and Strategies for Monitoring; Indicator Parameters/Organisms; Historical Data; Crystal Cube for Coastal and Estuarine Degradation; and the Monitoring Gap. Volume 4 covers the Organotin Symposium - Chemistry; Toxicity Studies; and Environmental Monitoring and Modeling. Volume 5 includes papers on Advances in Oceanography; Applied Oceanography; Unmanned Vehicles and ROV's; Manned Vehicles; and Oceanographic Ships.

  9. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  10. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  11. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  12. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  13. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  14. Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Report about the Ocean Thermal ...

  15. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Name: National Oceanic and...

  16. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  18. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  19. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  20. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  1. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  2. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  3. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  4. Study of domestic social and economic impacts of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) commercial development. Volume II. Industry profiles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-12-22

    Econoimc profiles of the industries most affected by the construction, deployment, and operation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) powerplants are presented. Six industries which will contribute materials and/or components to the construction of OTEC plants have been identified and are profiled here. These industries are: steel industry, concrete industry, titanium metal industry, fabricated structural metals industry, fiber glass-reinforced plastics industry, and electrical transmission cable industry. The economic profiles for these industries detail the industry's history, its financial and economic characteristics, its technological and production traits, resource constraints that might impede its operation, and its relation to OTEC. Some of the historical data collected and described in the profile include output, value of shipments, number of firms, prices, employment, imports and exports, and supply-demand forecasts. For most of the profiled industries, data from 1958 through 1980 were examined. In addition, profiles are included on the sectors of the economy which will actualy construct, deploy, and supply the OTEC platforms.

  5. Ocean Navitas | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Condry. Website: www.oceannavitas.com References: Ocean Navitas&127;UNIQ75db538f85b32404-ref-000014E2-QINU&127; This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Ocean...

  6. LLNL Ocean General Circulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-12-29

    The LLNL OGCM is a numerical ocean modeling tool for use in studying ocean circulation over a wide range of space and time scales, with primary applications to climate change and carbon cycle science.

  7. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  8. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  9. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  10. Publication in Ocean Engineering

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Publication in Ocean Engineering - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  11. Ninth Annual Ocean Renewable Energy Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The future of clean, renewable ocean wave energy will be discussed in depth at the 2014 Ocean Renewable Energy Conference.

  12. Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Released in the STEO June 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  14. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  15. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  16. Project Analysis Standard Operating Procedure

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ......... 16 3.2.8.1 INVALID FORECAST DATES......has not been completed, there should be a forecast of the remaining costs to be incurred. ...

  17. International Conference on Ocean Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join the Energy Department in Edinburgh, Scotland from February 23–25th for the International Conference on Ocean Energy (ICOE) conference.

  18. Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ascari, Matthew

    2012-10-28

    The Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization (OTEEV) project focuses on assessing the Maximum Practicably Extractable Energy (MPEE) from the world’s ocean thermal resources. MPEE is defined as being sustainable and technically feasible, given today’s state-of-the-art ocean energy technology. Under this project the OTEEV team developed a comprehensive Geospatial Information System (GIS) dataset and software tool, and used the tool to provide a meaningful assessment of MPEE from the global and domestic U.S. ocean thermal resources.

  19. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  20. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  1. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  2. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  3. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  4. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  5. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  8. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  9. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  10. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  11. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  12. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  13. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  14. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  15. Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate LANL scientists have developed a computer model that clarifies the complex processes driving ocean mixing in the vast eddies that swirl across hundreds of miles of open ocean. June 24, 2015 A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation, computed using Lagrangian particle statistics. A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation,

  16. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is...

  17. Scott Wilson Oceans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wilson Oceans Jump to: navigation, search Name: Scott Wilson Oceans Place: Chesterfield, United Kingdom Zip: S30 1JF Sector: Wind energy Product: Specialist in the engineering of...

  18. Hawaii Oceanic Technology Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oceanic Technology Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Hawaii Oceanic Technology Inc Region: United States Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic Website: www.hioceanictech.com This...

  19. Ocean Motion International LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LLC Place: Saulsbury, Tennessee Zip: 38067 Sector: Ocean Product: Marine energy technology firm developing ocean wave powered generators. Coordinates: 35.052242,...

  20. Ocean Energy Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Energy Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Ocean Energy Ltd Address: 3 Casement Square Place: Cobh Region: Ireland Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic Phone Number:...

  1. Green Ocean Wave Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Wave Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Green Ocean Wave Energy Region: United States Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic Website: http: This company is listed in the...

  2. The Ocean Sampling Day Consortium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kopf, Anna; Bicak, Mesude; Kottmann, Renzo; Schnetzer, Julia; Kostadinov, Ivaylo; Lehmann, Katja; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Jeanthon, Christian; Rahav, Eyal; Ullrich, Matthias; Wichels, Antje; Gerdts, Gunnar; Polymenakou, Paraskevi; Kotoulas, Giorgos; Siam, Rania; Abdallah, Rehab Z.; Sonnenschein, Eva C.; Cariou, Thierry; O’Gara, Fergal; Jackson, Stephen; Orlic, Sandi; Steinke, Michael; Busch, Julia; Duarte, Bernardo; Caçador, Isabel; Canning-Clode, João; Bobrova, Oleksandra; Marteinsson, Viggo; Reynisson, Eyjolfur; Loureiro, Clara Magalhães; Luna, Gian Marco; Quero, Grazia Marina; Löscher, Carolin R.; Kremp, Anke; DeLorenzo, Marie E.; Øvreås, Lise; Tolman, Jennifer; LaRoche, Julie; Penna, Antonella; Frischer, Marc; Davis, Timothy; Katherine, Barker; Meyer, Christopher P.; Ramos, Sandra; Magalhães, Catarina; Jude-Lemeilleur, Florence; Aguirre-Macedo, Ma Leopoldina; Wang, Shiao; Poulton, Nicole; Jones, Scott; Collin, Rachel; Fuhrman, Jed A.; Conan, Pascal; Alonso, Cecilia; Stambler, Noga; Goodwin, Kelly; Yakimov, Michael M.; Baltar, Federico; Bodrossy, Levente; Van De Kamp, Jodie; Frampton, Dion M. F.; Ostrowski, Martin; Van Ruth, Paul; Malthouse, Paul; Claus, Simon; Deneudt, Klaas; Mortelmans, Jonas; Pitois, Sophie; Wallom, David; Salter, Ian; Costa, Rodrigo; Schroeder, Declan C.; Kandil, Mahrous M.; Amaral, Valentina; Biancalana, Florencia; Santana, Rafael; Pedrotti, Maria Luiza; Yoshida, Takashi; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Ingleton, Tim; Munnik, Kate; Rodriguez-Ezpeleta, Naiara; Berteaux-Lecellier, Veronique; Wecker, Patricia; Cancio, Ibon; Vaulot, Daniel; Bienhold, Christina; Ghazal, Hassan; Chaouni, Bouchra; Essayeh, Soumya; Ettamimi, Sara; Zaid, El Houcine; Boukhatem, Noureddine; Bouali, Abderrahim; Chahboune, Rajaa; Barrijal, Said; Timinouni, Mohammed; El Otmani, Fatima; Bennani, Mohamed; Mea, Marianna; Todorova, Nadezhda; Karamfilov, Ventzislav; ten Hoopen, Petra; Cochrane, Guy; L’Haridon, Stephane; Bizsel, Kemal Can; Vezzi, Alessandro; Lauro, Federico M.; Martin, Patrick; Jensen, Rachelle M.; Hinks, Jamie; Gebbels, Susan; Rosselli, Riccardo; De Pascale, Fabio; Schiavon, Riccardo; dos Santos, Antonina; Villar, Emilie; Pesant, Stéphane; Cataletto, Bruno; Malfatti, Francesca; Edirisinghe, Ranjith; Silveira, Jorge A. Herrera; Barbier, Michele; Turk, Valentina; Tinta, Tinkara; Fuller, Wayne J.; Salihoglu, Ilkay; Serakinci, Nedime; Ergoren, Mahmut Cerkez; Bresnan, Eileen; Iriberri, Juan; Nyhus, Paul Anders Fronth; Bente, Edvardsen; Karlsen, Hans Erik; Golyshin, Peter N.; Gasol, Josep M.; Moncheva, Snejana; Dzhembekova, Nina; Johnson, Zackary; Sinigalliano, Christopher David; Gidley, Maribeth Louise; Zingone, Adriana; Danovaro, Roberto; Tsiamis, George; Clark, Melody S.; Costa, Ana Cristina; El Bour, Monia; Martins, Ana M.; Collins, R. Eric; Ducluzeau, Anne-Lise; Martinez, Jonathan; Costello, Mark J.; Amaral-Zettler, Linda A.; Gilbert, Jack A.; Davies, Neil; Field, Dawn; Glöckner, Frank Oliver

    2015-06-19

    In this study, Ocean Sampling Day was initiated by the EU-funded Micro B3 (Marine Microbial Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Biotechnology) project to obtain a snapshot of the marine microbial biodiversity and function of the world’s oceans. It is a simultaneous global mega-sequencing campaign aiming to generate the largest standardized microbial data set in a single day. This will be achievable only through the coordinated efforts of an Ocean Sampling Day Consortium, supportive partnerships and networks between sites. This commentary outlines the establishment, function and aims of the Consortium and describes our vision for a sustainable study of marine microbial communities and their embedded functional traits.

  3. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  4. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  5. Autonomous observations of the ocean biological carbon pump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bishop, James K.B.

    2009-03-01

    Prediction of the substantial biologically mediated carbon flows in a rapidly changing and acidifying ocean requires model simulations informed by observations of key carbon cycle processes on the appropriate space and time scales. From 2000 to 2004, the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) supported the development of the first low-cost fully-autonomous ocean profiling Carbon Explorers that demonstrated that year-round real-time observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration and sedimentation could be achieved in the world's ocean. NOPP also initiated the development of a sensor for particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) suitable for operational deployment across all oceanographic platforms. As a result, PIC profile characterization that once required shipboard sample collection and shipboard or shore based laboratory analysis, is now possible to full ocean depth in real time using a 0.2W sensor operating at 24 Hz. NOPP developments further spawned US DOE support to develop the Carbon Flux Explorer, a free-vehicle capable of following hourly variations of particulate inorganic and organic carbon sedimentation from near surface to kilometer depths for seasons to years and capable of relaying contemporaneous observations via satellite. We have demonstrated the feasibility of real time - low cost carbon observations which are of fundamental value to carbon prediction and when further developed, will lead to a fully enhanced global carbon observatory capable of real time assessment of the ocean carbon sink, a needed constraint for assessment of carbon management policies on a global scale.

  6. Ocean Renewable Energy Conference X

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 10th annual Ocean Renewable Energy Conference provides attendees a forum to share new ideas and concepts, opportunity to learn from leading-edge practitioners and policy-makers, information...

  7. Ocean Thermal | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the ability to produce 10000 TWh per year, which is greater than other types of ocean energy such as tides, marine currents and salinity gradient. OTEC functions best when...

  8. MPAS-Ocean Development Update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobsen, Douglas W.; Ringler, Todd D.; Petersen, Mark R.; Jones, Philip W.; Maltrud, Mathew E.

    2012-06-13

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a modeling framework developed jointly between NCAR and LANL, built to allow core developers to: rapidly develop new dynamical cores, and leverage improvements made to shared codes. MPAS-Ocean (MPAS-O) is a functioning ocean model capable of high resolution, or highly vairable resolution simulations. The first MPAS-O publication is expected by the end of the year.

  9. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  10. Ocean current resource assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ocean current resource assessment Ocean current resource assessment Ocean current resource assessment Office presentation icon 45_ocean_resource_gtrc_haas.ppt More Documents & Publications Tidal Energy Resource Assessment Free Flow Energy (TRL 1 2 3 Component) - Design and Development of a Cross-Platform Submersible Generator Optimized for the Conditions of Current Energy Conversion

  11. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  12. Laboratory Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory Operations /newsroom/_assets/images/operations-icon.png Laboratory Operations Latest announcements from the Lab on its operations. Community, Events Laboratory Operations Environmental Stewardship Melissa Blueflower-Sanchez and Robert Sanchez, owners of R and M Construction, LLC, of Santa Clara Pueblo. Four regional businesses receive Native American Venture Acceleration Fund grants The grants are designed to help the recipients create jobs, increase their revenue base and help

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  16. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  17. Ocean current wave interaction study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hayes, J.G.

    1980-09-20

    A numerical model has been developed to incorporate refraction of ocean surface gravity waves by major ocean currents. The model is initialized with directional wave spectra and verified with aircraft synthetic aperture radar X band spectra, laser profilometer spectra, and pitch and roll buoy data. Data collected during the Marineland test experiment are used as surface truth observations for the wave-current study. Evidence of Gulf Stream refraction and trapping of surface waves as well as caustics in the current is shown and modeled assuming a nonuniform Gulf Stream distribution. Frequency and directional resolution of the wave spectral distribution and the current refraction patterns illustrates the need for further study of ocean current-wave interaction in wave refraction studies.

  18. The Ocean Sampling Day Consortium

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kopf, Anna; Bicak, Mesude; Kottmann, Renzo; Schnetzer, Julia; Kostadinov, Ivaylo; Lehmann, Katja; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Jeanthon, Christian; Rahav, Eyal; Ullrich, Matthias; et al

    2015-06-19

    In this study, Ocean Sampling Day was initiated by the EU-funded Micro B3 (Marine Microbial Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Biotechnology) project to obtain a snapshot of the marine microbial biodiversity and function of the world’s oceans. It is a simultaneous global mega-sequencing campaign aiming to generate the largest standardized microbial data set in a single day. This will be achievable only through the coordinated efforts of an Ocean Sampling Day Consortium, supportive partnerships and networks between sites. This commentary outlines the establishment, function and aims of the Consortium and describes our vision for a sustainable study of marine microbial communities and theirmore » embedded functional traits.« less

  19. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  20. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  1. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  2. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  4. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  5. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  6. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  8. Ocean Energy Technology Basics | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Renewable Energy » Ocean Energy Technology Basics Ocean Energy Technology Basics August 16, 2013 - 4:18pm Addthis Text Version Photo of low waves in the ocean. A dock is visible in the background. Oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth's surface. As the world's largest solar collectors, oceans contain thermal energy from the sun and produce mechanical energy from tides and waves. Even though the sun affects all ocean activity, the gravitational pull of the moon primarily drives tides, and wind

  9. Weak economy and politics worry US coal operators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiscor, S.

    2009-01-15

    A potential decrease in demand, a new administration, and production constraints have coal operators worried about prospects for 2009. This and other interesting facts are revealed in this 2009 forecast by the journal Coal Age. Results are presented of the survey answered by 69 of the 646 executives contacted, on such questions about expected coal production, coal use, attitude in the coal industry, capital expenditure on types of equipment and productive capacity. Coal Age forecasts a 2.3% decline in coal production in 2009, down to 1.145 billion tons from 1.172 billion tons. 8 figs.

  10. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lockerby, R.W.

    1981-01-01

    Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is reviewed briefly. The two types of OTEC system (open and closed) are described and limitations are pointed out. A bibliography of 148 references on OTEC is given for the time period 1975 to 1980. Entries are arranged alphabetically according to the author's name. (MJJ)

  11. Indian National Institute of Ocean Technology | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of Ocean Technology Jump to: navigation, search Name: Indian National Institute of Ocean Technology Place: Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India Sector: Ocean Product: Research institute...

  12. MHK Technologies/Ocean Treader floating | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    homepage Ocean Treader floating.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Green Ocean Energy Ltd Project(s) where this technology is utilized *MHK ProjectsDevelopment of Ocean...

  13. Operational Excellence

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operational Excellence /about/_assets/images/icon-70th.jpg Operational Excellence The Lab's mission is to develop and apply science and technology to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent; reduce global threats; and solve other emerging national security and energy challenges. aeiral shot of los alamos, new mexico What Los Alamos gets done as a premier national security science laboratory depends on how we do it The Laboratory's operations and business

  14. Operations Videos

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Research Analysts The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) within the Department of Energy has forged a world-class information program that stresses quality, teamwork, and employee growth. In support of our program, we offer a variety of profes- sional positions, including the Operations Research Analyst, whose work is associated with the development and main- tenance of energy modeling systems. Responsibilities: Operations Research Analysts perform or participate in one or

  15. SPEAR Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Interface 1113 N. Kurita J. Langton Vacuum TSP's 1120 J. Corbett A. Terebilo MATLAB Applications - Basics 1121 F. Rafael Booster Kicker Upgrade, Operation Manual 1121...

  16. operations center

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    servers and other critical Operations Center equipment

  17. Independent air supply system filtered to protect against biological and radiological agents (99.7%).
  18. <...

  19. North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh; Mejia, John; Hatchett, Benjamin; McCord, Travis; McLean, Julie; Dorman, Clive

    2013-04-11

    Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.

  20. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Animal, Vegetable or Mineral? Iron is a limiting nutrient in many parts of the oceans, nowhere more so than in the Southern Ocean's photic zone, which receives enough sunlight for...

  21. Ocean Flow Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Ocean Flow Energy Place: United Kingdom Zip: NE29 6NL Product: Tidal energy device developer. References: Ocean Flow Energy1 This article...

  22. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    role of ocean and ice in high-latitude climate change and projecting the impacts of ... COSIM researchers develop, test and apply ocean and ice models in support of DOE Climate ...

  1. Open Ocean Energy Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Edit with form History Open Ocean Energy Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Open Ocean Energy Ltd Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic Website: http: This company is listed in the...

  2. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Earth, Space Sciences » Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) The COSIM project develops advanced ocean and ice models for evaluating the role of ocean and ice in high-latitude climate change and projecting the impacts of high-latitude change on regions throughout the globe. Contact Us Phil Jones Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Email Wilbert Weijer Computational Physics and Methods Email Elizabeth Hunke Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics

  3. Research and development on ocean thermal energy conversion in Japan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Uehara, H.

    1982-08-01

    The study of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) in Japan has been conducted under the leadership of a team of the ''Sunshine Project'', a national new energy development project promoted by the Ministry of International Trade and Industries (MITI) since 1974. At present, two experimental OTEC power plants -Nauru's OTEC plant and Imari's OTEC plant are operating. In this paper, the review of research and development activity of these two OTEC plants in Japan is made.

  4. Technical Sessions B. E. Manner National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    B. E. Manner National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Propagation Laboratory 130ulder, CO 80303 The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) pirog ram goals are ambitious, and its schedule is demanding. Many of the instruments, proposed for operations at the first Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site as early alS 1992 represent emerging technology and exist only as :special research prototypes. Therefore, an important preparatory step for ARM was an intensive field project in

  5. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  6. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  7. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  8. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  9. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  10. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  11. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  12. Field Observation of the Green Ocean Amazon. Neutral Cluster Air Ion

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Spectrometer (NAIS) Final Campaign Summary (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Field Observation of the Green Ocean Amazon. Neutral Cluster Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) Final Campaign Summary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Field Observation of the Green Ocean Amazon. Neutral Cluster Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) Final Campaign Summary The neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer (NAIS) was deployed to the T3 site for Intensive Operations Periods 1 and 2 (IOP1 and IOP2). The NAIS is

  13. Wind energy and power system operations: a review of wind integration studies to date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cesaro, Jennifer de; Porter, Kevin; Milligan, Michael

    2009-12-15

    Wind integration will not be accomplished successfully by doing ''more of the same.'' It will require significant changes in grid planning and operations, continued technical evolution in the design and operation of wind turbines, further adoption and implementation of wind forecasting in the control room, and incorporation of market and policy initiatives to encourage more flexible generation. (author)

  14. Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    National Research Council

    2011-04-22

    The United States has jurisdiction over 3.4 million square miles of ocean—an expanse greater than the land area of all fifty states combined. This vast marine area offers researchers opportunities to investigate the ocean’s role in an integrated Earth system, but also presents challenges to society, including damaging tsunamis and hurricanes, industrial accidents, and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The 2010 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon oil spill and 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami are vivid reminders that a broad range of infrastructure is needed to advance our still-incomplete understanding of the ocean. The National Research Council (NRC)’s Ocean Studies Board was asked by the National Science and Technology Council’s Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, comprised of 25 U.S. government agencies, to examine infrastructure needs for ocean research in the year 2030. This request reflects concern, among a myriad of marine issues, over the present state of aging and obsolete infrastructure, insufficient capacity, growing technological gaps, and declining national leadership in marine technological development; issues brought to the nation’s attention in 2004 by the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy. A 15-member committee of experts identified four themes that encompass 32 future ocean research questions–enabling stewardship of the environment, protecting life and property, promoting economic vitality, and increasing fundamental scientific understanding. Many of the questions in the report (e.g., sea level rise, sustainable fisheries, the global water cycle) reflect challenging, multidisciplinary science questions that are clearly relevant today, and are likely to take decades of effort to solve. As such, U.S. ocean research will require a growing suite of ocean infrastructure for a range of activities, such as high quality, sustained time series observations or autonomous monitoring at a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, a coordinated national plan for making future strategic investments becomes an imperative to address societal needs. Such a plan should be based upon known priorities and should be reviewed every 5-10 years to optimize the federal investment. The committee examined the past 20 years of technological advances and ocean infrastructure investments (such as the rise in use of self-propelled, uncrewed, underwater autonomous vehicles), assessed infrastructure that would be required to address future ocean research questions, and characterized ocean infrastructure trends for 2030. One conclusion was that ships will continue to be essential, especially because they provide a platform for enabling other infrastructure – autonomous and remotely operated vehicles; samplers and sensors; moorings and cabled systems; and perhaps most importantly, the human assets of scientists, technical staff, and students. A comprehensive, long-term research fleet plan should be implemented in order to retain access to the sea. The current report also calls for continuing U.S. capability to access fully and partially ice-covered seas; supporting innovation, particularly the development of biogeochemical sensors; enhancing computing and modeling capacity and capability; establishing broadly accessible data management facilities; and increasing interdisciplinary education and promoting a technically-skilled workforce. The committee also provided a framework for prioritizing future investment in ocean infrastructure. They recommend that development, maintenance, or replacement of ocean research infrastructure assets should be prioritized in terms of societal benefit, with particular consideration given to usefulness for addressing important science questions; affordability, efficiency, and longevity; and ability to contribute to other missions or applications. These criteria are the foundation for prioritizing ocean research infrastructure investments by estimating the economic costs and benefits of each potential infrastructure investment, and funding those investments that collectively produce the largest expected net benefit over time. While this type of process is clearly subject to budget constraints, it could quantify the often informal evaluation of linkages between infrastructure, ocean research, the value of information produced, societal objectives, and economic benefits. Addressing the numerous complex science questions facing the entire ocean research enterprise in 2030–from government to academia, industry to nonprofits, local to global scale–represents a major challenge, requiring collaboration across the breadth of the ocean sciences community and nearly seamless coordination between ocean-related federal agencies.

  15. Operating Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter is focused on capital costs for conventional construction and environmental restoration and waste management projects and examines operating cost estimates to verify that all elements of the project have been considered and properly estimated.

  16. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  17. Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, A.; Botterud, A.; Wu, J.; Zhou, Z.; Hodge, B-M.; Heany, M.

    2013-10-31

    This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.

  18. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  19. Subsurface Hybrid Power Options for Oil & Gas Production at Deep Ocean Sites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, J C; Haut, R; Jahn, G; Goldman, J; Colvin, J; Karpinski, A; Dobley, A; Halfinger, J; Nagley, S; Wolf, K; Shapiro, A; Doucette, P; Hansen, P; Oke, A; Compton, D; Cobb, M; Kopps, R; Chitwood, J; Spence, W; Remacle, P; Noel, C; Vicic, J; Dee, R

    2010-02-19

    An investment in deep-sea (deep-ocean) hybrid power systems may enable certain off-shore oil and gas exploration and production. Advanced deep-ocean drilling and production operations, locally powered, may provide commercial access to oil and gas reserves otherwise inaccessible. Further, subsea generation of electrical power has the potential of featuring a low carbon output resulting in improved environmental conditions. Such technology therefore, enhances the energy security of the United States in a green and environmentally friendly manner. The objective of this study is to evaluate alternatives and recommend equipment to develop into hybrid energy conversion and storage systems for deep ocean operations. Such power systems will be located on the ocean floor and will be used to power offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations. Such power systems will be located on the oceans floor, and will be used to supply oil and gas exploration activities, as well as drilling operations required to harvest petroleum reserves. The following conceptual hybrid systems have been identified as candidates for powering sub-surface oil and gas production operations: (1) PWR = Pressurized-Water Nuclear Reactor + Lead-Acid Battery; (2) FC1 = Line for Surface O{sub 2} + Well Head Gas + Reformer + PEMFC + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (3) FC2 = Stored O2 + Well Head Gas + Reformer + Fuel Cell + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (4) SV1 = Submersible Vehicle + Stored O{sub 2} + Fuel Cell + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (5) SV2 = Submersible Vehicle + Stored O{sub 2} + Engine or Turbine + Lead-Acid & Li-Ion Batteries; (6) SV3 = Submersible Vehicle + Charge at Docking Station + ZEBRA & Li-Ion Batteries; (7) PWR TEG = PWR + Thermoelectric Generator + Lead-Acid Battery; (8) WELL TEG = Thermoelectric Generator + Well Head Waste Heat + Lead-Acid Battery; (9) GRID = Ocean Floor Electrical Grid + Lead-Acid Battery; and (10) DOC = Deep Ocean Current + Lead-Acid Battery.

  20. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  1. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  2. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION: AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sands, M.Dale

    1980-08-01

    Significant acccrmplishments in Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technology have increased the probability of producing OTEC-derived power within this decade with subsequent large scale commercialization following by the turn of the century. Under U.S. Department of Energy funding, the Oceanic Engineering Operations of Interstate Electronics Corporation has prepared several OTEC Environmental Assessments over the past years, in particular, the OTEC Programmatic Environmental Assessment. The Programmatic EA considers several technological designs (open- and closed-cycle), plant configuratlons (land-based, moored, and plant-ship), and power usages (baseload electricity, ammonia and aluminum production). Potential environmental impacts, health and safetv issues and a status update of the institutional issues as they influence OTEC deployments, are included.

  3. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  4. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, Hawaii |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, Hawaii National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, Hawaii Photo of a Staff Residence at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii The staff residences at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii now have solar water heating systems funded by the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). The Center is part of the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC-NOAA). New

  6. Makai Ocean Engineering Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Southern CA Area Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic, Ocean, Renewable Energy Product: OTEC Number of Employees: 28 Year Founded: 1973 Phone Number: 808.259.8871 Website:...

  7. Ocean Electric Power | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Electric Power Place: United Kingdom Sector: Renewable Energy Product: UK-based offshore project developer. The firm is actively engaged in the development of offshore...

  8. Hawaii Ocean Science and Technology Park

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Tribal Energy Program Intellectual Property Current EC Partnerships How to Partner Small ... SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Hawaii Ocean Science and Technology Park ...

  9. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    At bottom left, the kinds of iron species found in two transects of the Southern Ocean are ... (ACC stands for Antarctic Circumpolar Current.) The map shows chlorophyll ...

  10. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    so than in the Southern Ocean's photic zone, which receives enough sunlight for photosynthesis to occur, but whose biological diversity is limited due to a lack of bioavailable...

  11. Ocean Viral Metagenomics (2010 JGI User Meeting)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Rohwer, Forest

    2011-04-26

    Forest Rohwer from San Diego State University talks about "Ocean Viral Metagenomics" on March 25, 2010 at the 5th Annual DOE JGI User Meeting

  12. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll...

  13. Ocean Renewable Power Company | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LLC was founded in 2004 for the purpose of generating reliable, competitive, emission-free electricity from the energy resources of the oceans. Coordinates: 45.511795,...

  14. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  15. Operating Strategies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operating Strategies and Design Recommendations for Mitigating Local Damage Effects in Offshore Turbine Blades Phillip W. Richards phillip@gatech.edu Graduate Research Assistant Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering Atlanta, Georgia, USA D. Todd Griffith dgriffi@sandia.gov Principal Member of the Technical Staff Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA Dewey H. Hodges dhodges@gatech.edu Professor Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering Atlanta, Georgia, USA

  16. Operations Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (~ii~,Richland Operations Office ~Z4TESO~Richland, Washington 99352 SEP 2 2009 CERTIFIED MAIL Ms. Sarah Washburn Heart of America Northwest 1314 N.E. 5 6 th Street Suite 100 Seattle, Washington 98105 Dear Ms. Washburn: FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT REQUEST (FOI 2009-0067) You requested, pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act (FOJA), the following documents relating to: 1 . "The authorization, decision to use, and actual use of any and all pesticides and herbicides anywhere within the

  17. Aquantis Ocean Current Turbine Development Project Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fleming, Alex J.

    2014-08-23

    The Aquantis® Current Plane (“C-Plane”) technology developed by Dehlsen Associates, LLC (DA) and Aquantis, Inc. is an ocean current turbine designed to extract kinetic energy from ocean currents. The technology is capable of achieving competitively priced base-load, continuous, and reliable power generation from a source of renewable energy not before possible in this scale or form.

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  1. STATEMENT OF CLAUDIA ANDREWS CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    STATEMENT OF CLAUDIA ANDREWS CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON WATER, POWER AND OCEANS COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MARCH 22, 2016 EXAMINING THE MISSIONS AND IMPACTS OF THE PRESIDENT'S PROPOSED FISCAL YEAR 2017 BUDGETS OF THE U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION AND THE POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS Mr. Chairman,

  2. A predictive ocean oil spill model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sanderson, J.; Barnette, D.; Papodopoulos, P.; Schaudt, K.; Szabo, D.

    1996-07-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Initially, the project focused on creating an ocean oil spill model and working with the major oil companies to compare their data with the Los Alamos global ocean model. As a result of this initial effort, Los Alamos worked closely with the Eddy Joint Industry Project (EJIP), a consortium oil and gas producing companies in the US. The central theme of the project was to use output produced from LANL`s global ocean model to look in detail at ocean currents in selected geographic areas of the world of interest to consortium members. Once ocean currents are well understood this information could be used to create oil spill models, improve offshore exploration and drilling equipment, and aid in the design of semi-permanent offshore production platforms.

  3. Federal Ocean Energy Technology: Program summary for fiscal year 1986

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1987-10-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE) Ocean Energy Technology (OET) Program is looking for cost-effective ways to harness ocean energy to help power tomorrow's world. Federally sponsored researchers are studying methods to transform the solar heat stored in the ocean's surface waters into electricity as well as new ways to convert wave energy into mechanical energy or electricity. This report provides a summary of research completed during FY 1986. Four major research areas are addressed in the work covered by this report: Thermodynamic Research and Analysis addresses the process and system analyses which provide the underlying understanding of physical effects which constitute the energy conversion processes, Experimental Verification and Testing provides confirmation of the analytical projections and empirical relationships, Materials and Structural Research addresses special materials compatibility issues related to operation in the sea. Much of its focus is on concepts for the system CWP which is a major technology cost driver, and Oceanographic, Environmental, and Geotechnical Research addresss those unique design requirements imposed by construction in steep slope coastal areas.

  4. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  5. VOCALS: The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study () | Data...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    VOCALS: The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Title: VOCALS: The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study VOCALS (VAMOS* Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study) is an international ...

  6. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  7. Ocean Energy Projects Developing On and Off America's Shores | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Ocean Energy Projects Developing On and Off America's Shores Ocean Energy Projects Developing On and Off America's Shores January 22, 2013 - 1:14pm Addthis Artist rendering of Ocean Power Technologies' proposed wave park off the coast of Oregon. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Power Technologies. Artist rendering of Ocean Power Technologies' proposed wave park off the coast of Oregon. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Power Technologies. Verdant testing its tidal energy device in New York's East

  8. NREL-Ocean Energy Thermal Conversion | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Laboratory Sector: Energy Topics: Resource assessment Website: www.nrel.govotec NREL-Ocean Energy Thermal Conversion Screenshot References: OTEC1 Logo: NREL-Ocean...

  9. Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS Jump to: navigation, search Name: Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS) Place: San Diego, California Zip: 92138 Sector:...

  10. Voith Hydro Ocean Current Technologies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Current Technologies Jump to: navigation, search Name: Voith Hydro Ocean Current Technologies Place: Germany Sector: Hydro Product: Germany-based JV between Voith Hydro and...

  11. Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition OREC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Coalition OREC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition (OREC) Place: Potomac, Maryland Zip: 20859 Sector: Ocean Product: US trade association...

  12. MHK Technologies/Ocean Energy Rig | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the MHK database homepage Ocean Energy Rig.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Free Flow 69 Technology Type Click here Axial Flow Turbine Technology Description The Ocean...

  13. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline...

  14. MHK Technologies/THOR Ocean Current Turbine | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    THOR Ocean Current Turbine < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage THOR Ocean Current Turbine.jpg Technology Profile Primary...

  15. Ocean County Landfill Biomass Facility | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    County Landfill Biomass Facility Jump to: navigation, search Name Ocean County Landfill Biomass Facility Facility Ocean County Landfill Sector Biomass Facility Type Landfill Gas...

  16. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United...

  17. Ocean Wave Energy Company OWECO | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Company OWECO Jump to: navigation, search Name: Ocean Wave Energy Company (OWECO) Place: Bristol, Rhode Island Sector: Ocean Product: Wave energy device developer. The...

  18. MHK Technologies/Ocean Wave Air Piston | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Wave Air Piston.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Green Ocean Wave Energy Technology Resource Click here Wave Technology Type Click here Attenuator...

  19. Ocean County, New Jersey: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    New Jersey Manahawkin, New Jersey Mantoloking, New Jersey Mystic Island, New Jersey New Egypt, New Jersey North Beach Haven, New Jersey Ocean Acres, New Jersey Ocean Gate, New...

  20. Simulated response of the atmosphere-ocean system to deforestation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the atmosphere-ocean system to deforestation in the Indonesian Archipelago Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Simulated response of the atmosphere-ocean system to ...

  1. Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean You are accessing a ...

  2. Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean Application Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean ...

  3. Feasibility of Tital and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass,...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Monty Worthington Director of Project Development - Alaska Feasibility of Tidal and Ocean ... * ORPC Alaska and ORPC Solutions (Ocean Renewable Power Company) * The Aleutian ...

  4. New Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for Offshore...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for Offshore Energy Production and Emergency Rescue Missions New Airborne Technology Measures Ocean Surface Currents for ...

  5. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On ...

  6. Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource This report describes the analysis and ...

  7. Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report about the Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization project, which focuses on assessing the Maximum Practicably Extractable Energy from the world’s ocean thermal resources.

  8. Reconstructing Past Ocean Salinity ((delta)18Owater)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guilderson, T P; Pak, D K

    2005-11-23

    Temperature and salinity are two of the key properties of ocean water masses. The distribution of these two independent but related characteristics reflects the interplay of incoming solar radiation (insolation) and the uneven distribution of heat loss and gain by the ocean, with that of precipitation, evaporation, and the freezing and melting of ice. Temperature and salinity to a large extent, determine the density of a parcel of water. Small differences in temperature and salinity can increase or decrease the density of a water parcel, which can lead to convection. Once removed from the surface of the ocean where 'local' changes in temperature and salinity can occur, the water parcel retains its distinct relationship between (potential) temperature and salinity. We can take advantage of this 'conservative' behavior where changes only occur as a result of mixing processes, to track the movement of water in the deep ocean (Figure 1). The distribution of density in the ocean is directly related to horizontal pressure gradients and thus (geostrophic) ocean currents. During the Quaternary when we have had systematic growth and decay of large land based ice sheets, salinity has had to change. A quick scaling argument following that of Broecker and Peng [1982] is: the modern ocean has a mean salinity of 34.7 psu and is on average 3500m deep. During glacial maxima sea level was on the order of {approx}120m lower than present. Simply scaling the loss of freshwater (3-4%) requires an average increase in salinity a similar percentage or to {approx}35.9psu. Because much of the deep ocean is of similar temperature, small changes in salinity have a large impact on density, yielding a potentially different distribution of water masses and control of the density driven (thermohaline) ocean circulation. It is partly for this reason that reconstructions of past salinity are of interest to paleoceanographers.

  9. Calutron Operations | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Calutron Operations

  10. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: An overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-11-01

    Ocean thermal energy conversion, or OTEC is a technology that extracts power from the ocean's natural thermal gradient. This technology is being pursued by researchers from many nations; in the United States, OTEC research is funded by the US Department of Energy's Ocean Energy Technology program. The program's goal is to develop the technology so that industry can make a competent assessment of its potential -- either as an alternative or as a supplement to conventional energy sources. Federally funded research in components and systems will help OTEC to the threshold of commercialization. This publication provides an overview of the OTEC technology. 47 refs., 25 figs.

  11. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print Friday, 21 June 2013 10:08 The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is

  12. Ocean Power (4 Activities) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ocean Power (4 Activities) Ocean Power (4 Activities) Below is information about the student activity/lesson plan from your search. Grades 5-8 Subject Water Summary Areas of the country that have an available coastline but are limited in other renewable resources can use the oceans to produce energy. We are familiar with the large hydroelectric dams that dot our nation, creating large reservoirs and flooding millions of acres of land. By turning to the restless seas we can find a source of

  13. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    matters of hours, thus grid operators must keep more reserve generation in operation than would be needed if they had a confident prediction of the expected wind power production. ...

  14. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  15. Ocean energy resources: the impact of OTEC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ditmars, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    The status of OTEC technological development is summarized with emphasis on the potential impacts of OTEC power production on the ocean environment, including implications for impacts to climate. (MHR)

  16. Ocean Energy Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    think tank established to accelerate offshore wind technology development that hopes to build a 5GW wind project off the coast of Maine. References: Ocean Energy Institute1 This...

  17. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    productivity in the ocean-in this case, the growth of phytoplankton, the primary plant food source for bigger marine life-and the larger marine life it supports. At bottom left,...

  18. ocean energy | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ocean energy Home Kch's picture Submitted by Kch(24) Member 15 July, 2014 - 07:07 MHK Cost Breakdown Structure Draft CBS current energy GMREC LCOE levelized cost of energy marine...

  19. MHK Technologies/Ocean | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the MHK database homepage Ocean.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Hydro Green Energy LLC Project(s) where this technology is utilized *MHK ProjectsAlaska 35 *MHK...

  20. Green Ocean Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Green Ocean Energy Place: Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom Zip: AB10 1UP Product: Aberdeen, UK-based private developer of wave device....

  1. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  2. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch

  3. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch

  4. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch

  5. Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling Start Date: May 11 2016 - 10:00am to 11:00am Building/Room: Building 240/Room 1404 Location: Argonne National Laboratory Speaker(s): Sean Vitousek Speaker(s) Title: Research Assistant Professor, University of Illinois at Chicago Host: Robert Jacob Processes in the ocean span a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, most numerical models are designed to simulate specific coastal processes or specific spatiotemporal scales. Furthermore, numerical models are subject

  6. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch

  7. Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch

  8. Ocean floor mounting of wave energy converters

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Siegel, Stefan G

    2015-01-20

    A system for mounting a set of wave energy converters in the ocean includes a pole attached to a floor of an ocean and a slider mounted on the pole in a manner that permits the slider to move vertically along the pole and rotate about the pole. The wave energy converters can then be mounted on the slider to allow adjustment of the depth and orientation of the wave energy converters.

  9. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  10. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  11. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Basics | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ocean » Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Basics Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Basics August 16, 2013 - 4:22pm Addthis A process called ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) uses the heat energy stored in the Earth's oceans to generate electricity. OTEC works best when the temperature difference between the warmer, top layer of the ocean and the colder, deep ocean water is about 36°F (20°C). These conditions exist in tropical coastal areas, roughly between the Tropic of Capricorn and the

  12. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  13. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  14. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  15. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  16. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  17. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  18. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  19. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  20. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  2. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  3. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  4. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  5. ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Company Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator...

  6. New Approach to Determine the Need for Operating Reserves in...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    load forecasting errors, and the predicted uncertainty in the wind power forecast. In contrast to other proposed stochastic scheduling methods, the demand curve for...

  7. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eden, H.F.; Mooers, C.N.K.

    1990-06-01

    The goal of COPS is to couple a program of regular observations to numerical models, through techniques of data assimilation, in order to provide a predictive capability for the US coastal ocean including the Great Lakes, estuaries, and the entire Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The objectives of the program include: determining the predictability of the coastal ocean and the processes that govern the predictability; developing efficient prediction systems for the coastal ocean based on the assimilation of real-time observations into numerical models; and coupling the predictive systems for the physical behavior of the coastal ocean to predictive systems for biological, chemical, and geological processes to achieve an interdisciplinary capability. COPS will provide the basis for effective monitoring and prediction of coastal ocean conditions by optimizing the use of increased scientific understanding, improved observations, advanced computer models, and computer graphics to make the best possible estimates of sea level, currents, temperatures, salinities, and other properties of entire coastal regions.

  8. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Programmatic Environmental Analysis--Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Authors, Various

    1980-01-01

    The programmatic environmental analysis is an initial assessment of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technology considering development, demonstration and commercialization. It is concluded that the OTEC development program should continue because the development, demonstration, and commercialization on a single-plant deployment basis should not present significant environmental impacts. However, several areas within the OTEC program require further investigation in order to assess the potential for environmental impacts from OTEC operation, particularly in large-scale deployments and in defining alternatives to closed-cycle biofouling control: (1) Larger-scale deployments of OTEC clusters or parks require further investigations in order to assess optimal platform siting distances necessary to minimize adverse environmental impacts. (2) The deployment and operation of the preoperational platform (OTEC-1) and future demonstration platforms must be carefully monitored to refine environmental assessment predictions, and to provide design modifications which may mitigate or reduce environmental impacts for larger-scale operations. These platforms will provide a valuable opportunity to fully evaluate the intake and discharge configurations, biofouling control methods, and both short-term and long-term environmental effects associated with platform operations. (3) Successful development of OTEC technology to use the maximal resource capabilities and to minimize environmental effects will require a concerted environmental management program, encompassing many different disciplines and environmental specialties. This volume contains these appendices: Appendix A -- Deployment Scenario; Appendix B -- OTEC Regional Characterization; and Appendix C -- Impact and Related Calculations.

  9. ARM - AMF2 Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Contacts Management and Operations Operations Overview ARM Links BCR | ECR ECO, EWO Extraview PIF, CAR, DQR & DQPR Operations Status System i.arm.gov AMF2 Deployment...

  10. Environmental impacts of ocean thermal energy conversion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-04-01

    Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a promising technology for production of energy and usable by-products from solar-generated temperature gradients in the world's oceans. Although considered benign compared to alternative forms of energy generation, deployment of OTEC plants will result in interactions with marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments and in socioeconomic interactions with surrounding areas. The Ocean Energy Technology Program of the Department of Energy has funded research to improve the understanding of these interactions. No insurmountable environmental obstacle to OTEC deployment has been uncovered. This document contains a summary of that research for entrepreneurs, utility engineers, and others interested in pursuing OTEC's potential. In addition, it provides a guide to permits, regulations, and licenses applicable to construction of an OTEC plant.

  11. SEASAT altimeter determination of ocean current variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernstein, R.L.; Born, G.H.; Whritner, R.H.

    1982-04-30

    Radar altimeters of great precision (roughly-equal10 cm), such as the one that flew on the SEASAT satellite, are capable of measuring the small oceanic height variations associated with geostrophic ocean currents. An experiment was concluded in the Kuroshio Current east of Japan, verifying this capability. Air-expendable bathythermographs (AXBT's) were dropped to coincide with the SEASAT subtract during flights on September 25 and October 5 and 13, 1978. Changes in surface dynamic height between flights were inferred from the AXBT data. They agreed generally to within +- 10 cm of height changes observed in the altimeter data.

  12. Operating Experience Committee Charter

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Operating Experience Committee (OEC) charter provides a description of the OEC's purpose, background, membership, functions, and operations.

  13. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  14. Pelamis Wave Power Ocean Power Delivery Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sector: Ocean Product: Scotland-based company specialising in the use of ocean power for electricity generation via its Pelamis convertor, which has been demonstrated up to 750kW....

  15. Task 3: PNNL Visit by JAEA Researchers to Participate in TODAM Code Applications to Fukushima Rivers and to Evaluate the Feasibility of Adaptation of FLESCOT Code to Simulate Radionuclide Transport in the Pacific Ocean Coastal Water Around Fukushima

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Onishi, Yasuo

    2013-03-29

    Four JAEA researchers visited PNNL for two weeks in February, 2013 to learn the PNNL-developed, unsteady, one-dimensional, river model, TODAM and the PNNL-developed, time-dependent, three dimensional, coastal water model, FLESCOT. These codes predict sediment and contaminant concentrations by accounting sediment-radionuclide interactions, e.g., adsorption/desorption and transport-deposition-resuspension of sediment-sorbed radionuclides. The objective of the river and coastal water modeling is to simulate • 134Cs and 137Cs migration in Fukushima rivers and the coastal water, and • their accumulation in the river and ocean bed along the Fukushima coast. Forecasting the future cesium behavior in the river and coastal water under various scenarios would enable JAEA to assess the effectiveness of various on-land remediation activities and if required, possible river and coastal water clean-up operations to reduce the contamination of the river and coastal water, agricultural products, fish and other aquatic biota. PNNL presented the following during the JAEA visit to PNNL: • TODAM and FLESCOT’s theories and mathematical formulations • TODAM and FLESCOT model structures • Past TODAM and FLESCOT applications • Demonstrating these two codes' capabilities by applying them to simple hypothetical river and coastal water cases. • Initial application of TODAM to the Ukedo River in Fukushima and JAEA researchers' participation in its modeling. PNNL also presented the relevant topics relevant to Fukushima environmental assessment and remediation, including • PNNL molecular modeling and EMSL computer facilities • Cesium adsorption/desorption characteristics • Experiences of connecting molecular science research results to macro model applications to the environment • EMSL tour • Hanford Site road tour. PNNL and JAEA also developed future course of actions for joint research projects on the Fukushima environmental and remediation assessments.

  16. Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Resources | Department of Energy On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources Memorandum of Understanding On Weather-Dependent and Oceanic Renewable Energy Resources between the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. PDF icon MOU_DOE_Commerce.pdf More Documents

  17. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    United States Coastline | Department of Energy Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline More Documents & Publications

  18. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    United States Coastline | Department of Energy Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon energy_production_ocean_currents_us.pdf More Documents & Publications Assessment of Energy Production

  19. Current practices and new technology in ocean engineering

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McGuinness, T.; Shih, H.H.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on wave power and marine engineering. Topics considered at the conference included remote sensing, ocean current measurement, air and spaceborne instrumentation, marine dynamics, real-time measurements, telemetry systems, seafloor measurement, computer-based data acquisition, materials and devices for underwater work systems, ocean system design analysis and reliability, ocean structure fatigue life prediction, underwater life support systems, sensor design, ocean thermal energy conversion, and wave energy converters.

  20. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  1. Ocean thermal energy conversion: report to congress - fiscal year 1982

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-03-31

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) activities related to ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) during fiscal year 1982 are described. The agency focus has been in the areas of providing ocean engineering and technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE), in streamlining the administration of the Federal OTEC licensing system, and in environmental assistance.

  2. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  3. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  4. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  5. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  7. Paper and Presentation at OCEANS2015

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paper and Presentation at OCEANS2015 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  8. Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wittig, J. Michael

    1980-01-01

    An improved open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system including a flash evaporator for vaporizing relatively warm ocean surface water and an axial flow, elastic fluid turbine having a vertical shaft and axis of rotation. The warm ocean water is transmitted to the evaporator through a first prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure circumferentially situated about the axis of rotation. The unflashed warm ocean water exits the evaporator through a second prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure located circumferentially about and radially within the first skirt-conduit structure. The radially inner surface of the second skirt conduit structure constitutes a cylinder which functions as the turbine's outer casing and obviates the need for a conventional outer housing. The turbine includes a radially enlarged disc element attached to the shaft for supporting at least one axial row of radially directed blades through which the steam is expanded. A prestressed concrete inner casing structure of the turbine has upstream and downstream portions respectively situated upstream and downstream from the disc element. The radially outer surfaces of the inner casing portions and radially outer periphery of the axially interposed disc cooperatively form a downwardly radially inwardly tapered surface. An annular steam flowpath of increasing flow area in the downward axial direction is radially bounded by the inner and outer prestressed concrete casing structures. The inner casing portions each include a transversely situated prestressed concrete circular wall for rotatably supporting the turbine shaft and associated structure. The turbine blades are substantially radially coextensive with the steam flowpath and receive steam from the evaporator through an annular array of prestressed concrete stationary vanes which extend between the inner and outer casings to provide structural support therefor and impart a desired flow direction to the steam.

  9. ARM - NSA Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AlaskaNSA Operations NSA Related Links Facilities and Instruments Barrow Atqasuk Oliktok Point (AMF3) ES&H Guidance Statement Operations Science Field Campaigns Visiting the Site...

  10. Crane Operation Training

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Crane Operational Training Crane Operational Safety Test NOTE: All Training and Testing Material is for LSU CAMD Users ONLY Crane Training - Information Reduces Risk Crane...

  11. Ocean thermal energy conversion: a review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuen, P.C.

    1981-10-01

    The OTEC principle is discussed along with general system and cycle types, specific OTEC designs, OTEC applications, and the ocean thermal resource. The historic development of OTEC is briefly reviewed, and the status of French, Japanese, EUROCEAN, and US programs is assessed. US efforts are detailed and DOE's strategy outlined with OTEC-1 and Mini-OTEC information. Power system components of the more technically advanced closed-cycle OTEC concept are discussed. These include: heat exchangers, corrosion and biofouling countermeasures, working fluids, ammonia power systems, and on-platform seawater systems. Several open-cycle features are also discussed. A critical review is presented of the ocean engineering aspects of OTEC power systems. Major subsystems such as platform, cold water pipe, mooring system, dynamic positioning system, power transmission cable system are assessed for their relationships with the ocean environment and with each other. Nine available studies of OTEC costs are reviewed. Tentative comparisons are made between OTEC and traditional fuel costs, and OTEC products and markets are considered. Possible environmental and social effects of OTEC development are discussed. International, national, and local laws regulating OTEC plants and OTEC energy products are reviewed. Tax incentives, attitudes of the utilities, and additional legislative needs are considered. (LEW)

  12. Ocean Energy Program Overview, Fiscal years 1990--1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-05-01

    The oceans are the world's largest solar energy collector and storage system. Covering 71% of the earth's surface, the oceans collect and store this energy as waves, currents, and thermal and salinity gradients. The purpose of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Ocean Energy Program is to develop techniques that harness ocean energy cost effectively and in ways that do not harm the environment. The program seeks to develop ocean energy technology to a point at which industry can accurately assess whether the applications of the technology are viable energy conversion alternatives, or supplements to current power-generating systems. In past studies, DOE identified ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), which uses the temperature difference between warm surface water and cold deep water, as the most promising of the ocean energy technologies. As a result, the Ocean Energy Program has concentrated research that advances OTEC technology. The program also monitored developments in wave energy, ocean current, and salinity gradient concepts. It is not actively developing these technologies now. The mission of the Ocean Energy Program is to develop techniques to harness the vast solar energy stored in the oceans' waves, currents, and thermal and salinity gradients.

  13. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  14. Draft environmental assessment: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Pilot Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, S.M.; Sands, M.D.; Donat, J.R.; Jepsen, P.; Smookler, M.; Villa, J.F.

    1981-02-01

    This Environmental Assessment (EA) has been prepared, in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, for the deployment and operation of a commercial 40-Megawatt (MW) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Pilot Plant (hereafter called the Pilot Plant). A description of the proposed action is presented, and a generic environment typical of the candidate Pilot Plant siting regions is described. An assessment of the potential environmental impacts associated with the proposed action is given, and the risk of credible accidents and mitigating measures to reduce these risks are considered. The Federal and State plans and policies the proposed action will encompass are described. Alternatives to the proposed action are presented. Appendix A presents the navigation and environmental information contained in the US Coast Pilot for each of the candidate sites; Appendix B provides a brief description of the methods and calculations used in the EA. It is concluded that environmental disturbances associated with Pilot Plant activities could potentially cause significant environmental impacts; however, the magnitude of these potential impacts cannot presently be assessed, due to insufficient engineering and environmental information. A site- and design-specific OTEC Pilot Plant Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is required to resolve the potentially significant environmental effects associated with Pilot Plant deployment and operation. (WHK)

  15. Ocean Carbon Cycle Data from the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The U.S. JGOFS program, a component of the U.S Global Change Research Program, grew out of the recommendations of a National Academy of Sciences workshop in 1984. An ambitious goal was set to understand the controls on the concentrations and fluxes of carbon and associated nutrients in the ocean. A new field of ocean biogeochemistry emerged with an emphasis on quality measurements of carbon system parameters and interdisciplinary field studies of the biological, chemical and physical process which control the ocean carbon cycle. U.S. JGOFS, ended in 2005 with the conclusion of the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP). Data are available throughout the U.S. JGOFS web site at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/ and from the U.S. JGOFS Data System at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/jg/dir/jgofs/. Major named segments of the project are: Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) Study, Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Study, Equatorial Pacific Process Study, North Atlantic Bloom Experiment (1989), Arabian Sea Process Study, and the Southern Ocean Process Study.

  16. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  17. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  18. Operation Warfighter Internship Fair

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Attendees: Participants of Operation Warfighter Program Cost: Free Supports: Veteran and Disability Employment Programs

  19. Operating Experience Committee Charter

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Operating Experience Committe Charter explains the purpose of the Department of Energy (DOE) Operating Experience Committee (OEC), which is to support line management within DOE and the DOE community in developing and sustaining effective oeprating experience programs so that lessons from inernal and external operating experience lead to improvement in future operational and safety performance.

  20. ARM - SGP Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations SGP Related Links Virtual Tour Facilities and Instruments Central Facility Boundary Facility Extended Facility Intermediate Facility Radiometric Calibration Facility Geographic Information ES&H Guidance Statement Operations Science Field Campaigns Visiting the Site Summer Training SGP Fact Sheet Images Information for Guest Scientists Contacts SGP Operations Routine Operations SGP central facility offices. SGP central facility offices. The overwhelming majority of the measurements

  1. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities: Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report describes procurement procedures and opportunities for small businesses with the Department of Energy (DOE). It describes both prime and subcontracting opportunities of $100,000 and above which are being set aside for 8(a) and other small business concerns. The report contains sections on: SIC codes; procurement opportunities with headquarters offices; procurement opportunities with field offices; subcontracting opportunities with major contractors; 8(a) contracts expiring in FY 1998; other opportunities to do business with DOE; management and operating contractors--expiration dates; Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) staff directory; and small business survey. This document will be updated quarterly on the home page.

  2. Deep Ocean Heat Uptake and the Influence of Sea Ice in the Southern Ocean

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cecilia M. Bitz

    2011-11-22

    Climate sensitivity defines the equilibrium response to climate forcing, but ocean heat uptake is equally important at controlling the transient, response. Heat stored beneath the mixed layer is not in close thermal contact with the atmosphere, and therefore warming below the mixed layer sequesters heat that would otherwise be available to warm the surface, slowing the rate of surface warming. In this study, we investigate mechanisms that control heat uptake, primarily in the Southern Ocean, where roughly 40% of the global heat uptake occurs.

  3. Environmental regulations and changes in petroleum refining operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lidderdale, T.C.M.

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. petroleum industry has responded to four major new federal rules on motor gasoline product quality in the last 6 years: Phase 1 Summer Volatility (Rvp) Regulation, June 1989; Phase 2 Summer Volatility (Rvp) regulation, May 1992; oxygenated Gasoline, November 1992; and reformulated Gasoline Phase I Simple Model, December 1994. These regulations have generated significant changes in domestic refinery operations, affecting marginal production costs and market prices, refinery yields, and the seasonality of production. Some changes have been dramatic. The price of motor gasoline has increased by as much as 60 {cents}/gal due to regulations. Refinery yields of motor gasoline (refinery output of motor gasoline as a fraction of refinery inputs or total refinery output), which historically peaked in the early summer to meet high summer driving demand, now are highest during the winter months. These changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the vapor pressure, oxygenated and reformulated gasoline (RFG) product quality regulations. This analysis uses linear regression equations from the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the EIA`s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

  4. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  5. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  6. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  7. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  8. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  9. Climate Data Operators (CDO)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Data Operators (CDO) Climate Data Operators (CDO) Description and Overview CDO is a large tool set for working on climate data. NetCDF 34, GRIB including SZIP compression, ...

  10. Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean Application

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean Application Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean Application Authors: Candy, J V Publication Date: 2011-07-12 OSTI Identifier: 1117989 Report Number(s): LLNL-CONF-491045 DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Presented at: OCEANS'11, Kona, HI, United States, Sep 19 - Sep 22, 2011

  11. Adaptive Wavenumber Estimation for Mode Tracking in a Shallow Ocean

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Environment (Conference) | SciTech Connect Adaptive Wavenumber Estimation for Mode Tracking in a Shallow Ocean Environment Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Adaptive Wavenumber Estimation for Mode Tracking in a Shallow Ocean Environment Authors: Candy, J V Publication Date: 2012-06-28 OSTI Identifier: 1059076 Report Number(s): LLNL-CONF-563556 DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Presented at: IEEE OCEANS '12, Hampton Roads, VA,

  12. Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited OCEAN THERMAL EXTRACTABLE ENERGY VISUALIZATION Award # DE-EE0002664 October 28, 2012 Final Technical Report Prepared by Lockheed Martin Mission Systems & Sensors (MS2) DE-EE0002664 Ocean Thermal Energy Resource Assessment Final Draft i 10/28/2012 Project Title: Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization Recipient: Lockheed Martin Corporation Award #: DE-0002664 Working Partners Project Lead: Matthew Ascari - Lockheed Martin

  13. Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    impact on tropical cyclones (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average of

  14. Ocean energy program summary: Volume 1, Overview: Fiscal year 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-02-01

    Past studies conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) have identified ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) as the largest potential contributor to US energy supplies from the ocean resource. As a result, the OET Program concentrates on research to advance OTEC technology. The program also continues to monitor and study developments in wave energy, ocean current and salinity gradient concepts, but it is not actively developing these technologies at the present time. 8 figs.

  15. Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Resources Committee | Department of Energy Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural Resources Committee Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural Resources Committee Testimony of Kenneth E. Legg, Administrator Southeastern Power Administration Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural Resources Committee PDF icon 3-24-15_Kenneth_Legg FT HNR.pdf More Documents & Publications Before The Subcommittee on Water and

  16. Coal operators prepare for a prosperous new year

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiscor, S.

    2008-01-15

    Results are given of the Coal Age 2008 annual Forecast Survey of 17 coal mining executives which reinforces that 2008 could be a very good year. Coal operators are planning to invest in new equipment, development and new coal mine start-ups, based on a number of demand- and supply-side fundamentals. 71% of those surveyed thought coal production in 2008 would increase from 2007 levels and US exports are expected to climb due to the weak dollar. If the tax credit on synfuels expires on 31 December 2007 production of coal synfuel will likely cease. Asked about expensive planned purchases, companies answers ranged from $80,000 for an underground scoop to $500 m for a new mine installation. However, most producers admit they will not be able to operate at full capacity. 7 figs.

  17. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  18. Ocean energy conversion systems annual research report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-03-01

    Alternative power cycle concepts to the closed-cycle Rankine are evaluated and those that show potential for delivering power in a cost-effective and environmentally acceptable fashion are explored. Concepts are classified according to the ocean energy resource: thermal, waves, currents, and salinity gradient. Research projects have been funded and reported in each of these areas. The lift of seawater entrained in a vertical steam flow can provide potential energy for a conventional hydraulic turbine conversion system. Quantification of the process and assessment of potential costs must be completed to support concept evaluation. Exploratory development is being completed in thermoelectricity and 2-phase nozzles for other thermal concepts. Wave energy concepts are being evaluated by analysis and model testing with present emphasis on pneumatic turbines and wave focussing. Likewise, several conversion approaches to ocean current energy are being evaluated. The use of salinity resources requires further research in membranes or the development of membraneless processes. Using the thermal resource in a Claude cycle process as a power converter is promising, and a program of R and D and subsystem development has been initiated to provide confirmation of the preliminary conclusion.

  19. Paducah Operations Timeline | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations Timeline Paducah Operations Timeline Paducah Operations Timeline

  20. Calutron Operators | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operators Calutron Operators Young women recruited to operate the calutrons

  1. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon ...

  2. Executive Order 13547: Stewardship of the Ocean, Our Coasts,...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    to climate change and ocean acidification, and coordinate with our national security and foreign policy interests. Download Document PDF icon Executive Order 13547: Stewardship of...

  3. The Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans House Committee...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Turner, Administrator Southwest Power Administration Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans House Committee on Natural Resources PDF icon 3-24-15ChristopherTurner FT ...

  4. MHK Technologies/The Ocean Hydro Electricity Generator Plant...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    The Ocean Hydro Electricity Generator Plant.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Free Flow 69 Technology Type Click here Axial Flow Turbine Technology Description The O H E...

  5. Ocean Energy Technology Overview: Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-07-01

    Introduction to and overview of ocean renewable energy resources and technologies prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy management Program.

  6. Sandia Energy - High-Fidelity Hydrostructural Analysis of Ocean...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hydrostructural Analysis of Ocean Renewable Power Company's (ORPC's) TidGen Turbine Home Renewable Energy Energy Water Power Partnership News News & Events Computational...

  7. MHK Technologies/Ocean Current Linear Turbine | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Current Linear Turbine < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage Ocean Current Linear Turbine.jpg Technology Profile Primary...

  8. Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans House Natural...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    House Natural Resources Committee Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans House Natural Resources Committee Testimony of Elliot E. Mainzer, Administrator, Bonneville...

  9. MHK Projects/Development of Ocean Treader | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wave Treader fixed *MHK TechnologiesOcean Treader floating Project Licensing Environmental Monitoring and Mitigation Efforts See Tethys << Return to the MHK database...

  10. Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Kenneth E. Legg, Administrator Southeastern Power Administration Before the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans - House Natural Resources Committee PDF icon 3-24-15KennethL...

  11. Turner Hunt Ocean Renewable (TRL 4 System) - THOR's Power Method...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    More Documents & Publications CX-004722: Categorical Exclusion Determination Vortex Hydro Energy (TRL 5 6 System) - Advanced Integration of Power Take-Off in VIVACE Ocean...

  12. MHK Projects/Greenwave Rhode Island Ocean Wave Energy Project...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Greenwave Rhode Island Ocean Wave Energy Project < MHK Projects Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage Loading map... "minzoom":false,"mappingservice":...

  13. Decoding Ancient Ocean Acidification Signals from Plankton Shells

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Understanding how these processes occurred in the past guides predictions of future ocean and atmospheric conditions, providing context for current global climate change. While ...

  14. Ocean energy technologies: The state of the art: Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carmichael, A.D.; Adams, E.E.; Glucksman, M.A.

    1986-11-01

    A state-of-the-art study of ocean energy technologies has been conducted to evaluate their potential use for the generation of electrical power. The more developed technologies are tidal energy, ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), and wave energy. In addition there has been a demonstration of a small ocean current turbine, and proposals have been made for salinity gradient devices and ocean wind turbines. Energy costs were estimated for representative base case systems for tidal, OTEC, and wave energy projects. The tidal energy scheme was predicted to have the lowest energy costs.

  15. Open Ocean Aquaculture & Wave Energy Site | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Aquaculture & Wave Energy Site Jump to: navigation, search Basic Specifications Facility Name Open Ocean Aquaculture & Wave Energy Site Overseeing Organization University of New...

  16. Adaptive Particle Filtering for Mode Tracking: A Shallow Ocean...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Presented at: OCEANS'11, Kona, HI, United States, Sep 19 - Sep 22, 2011 Research Org: Lawrence Livermore National ...

  17. Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON). Particulate Matter and ... transmittance, elemental composition by energy dispersive x-ray fluorescence, and ionic ...

  18. Field Observation of the Green Ocean Amazon. Neutral Cluster...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Neutral Cluster Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) Final Campaign Summary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Field Observation of the Green Ocean Amazon. Neutral Cluster Air Ion ...

  19. List of Ocean Thermal Incentives | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Cells Fuel Cells using Renewable Fuels Geothermal Electric Ground Source Heat Pumps Hydrogen Landfill Gas Methanol Ocean Thermal Photovoltaics Renewable Fuels Small Hydroelectric...

  20. Marine Fuel Choice For Ocean Going Vessels Within Emission Control...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    with Leidos Corporation to analyze the impact on ocean-going vessel fuel usage of the ... relevant MARPOL and associated U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions ...

  1. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  2. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  3. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  7. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  8. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  9. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  10. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  11. Transaction-Based Operation of Resource Constrained Systems

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VFD Fan Weather (optionally used to forecast PV output and weather-dependent loads) ... c urrent a nd f orecast p rices - Forecast p eriod a djustable ( e.g., h our a ...

  12. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  13. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  14. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  15. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  16. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  17. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  18. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  19. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Act of 1980

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    A legislative proposal to develop ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) facilities for power generation was the subject of hearings held on April 10 and May 1, 1980. Following the test of S. 2492 are the statements of 20 witnesses and additional materials submitted for consideration. The need for a large-scale demonstration of OTEC and the need for a Federal regulatory, siting, and financial-assistance framework are the major commercialization issues. S. 2492 provides one-stop licensing by treating the facilities as vessels and making them eligible for loan guarantees. The bill complements S. 1430, which deals with the demonstration program. OTEC development in Hawaii has progressed to a second pilot project. (DCK)

  20. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sands, M.Dale

    1980-08-01

    Significant achievements in Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technology have increased the probability of producing OTEC-derived power in this decade with subsequent large-scale commercialization to follow by the turn of the century. Under U.S. Department of Energy funding, Interstate Electronics has prepared an OTEC Programmatic Environmental Assessment (EA) that considers tne development, demonstration, and commercialization of OTEC power systems. The EA considers several tecnnological designs (open cycle and closed cycle), plant configurations (land-based, moored, and plantship), and power usages (baseload electricity and production of ammonia and aluminum). Potencial environmental impacts, health and safety issues, and a status update of international, federal, and state plans and policies, as they may influence OTEC deployments, are included.

  1. Ocean thermal energy conversion: Perspective and status

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, A.; Hillis, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    The use of the thermal gradient between the warm surface waters and the deep cold waters of tropical oceans was first proposed by J. A. d'Arsonval in 1881 and tried unsuccessfully be George Claude in 1930. Interest in Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) and other renewable energy sources revived in the 1970s as a result of oil embargoes. At that time, the emphasis was on large floating plants miles from shore producing 250--400 MW for maintained grids. When the problems of such plants became better understood and the price of oil reversed its upward trend, the emphasis shifted to smaller (10 MW) shore-based plants on tropical islands. Such plants would be especially attractive if they produce fresh water as a by-product. During the past 15 years, major progress has been made in converting OTEC unknowns into knowns. Mini-OTEC proved the closed-cycle concept. Cost-effective heat-exchanger concepts were identified. An effective biofouling control technique was discovered. Aluminum was determined to be promising for OTEC heat exchangers. Heat-transfer augmentation techniques were identified, which promised a reduction on heat-exchanger size and cost. Fresh water was produced by an OTEC open-cycle flash evaporator, using the heat energy in the seawater itself. The current R D emphasis is on the design and construction of a test facility to demonstrate the technical feasibility of the open-cycle process. The 10 MW shore-based, closed-cycle plant can be built with today's technology; with the incorporation of a flash evaporator, it will produce fresh water as well as electrical power -- both valuable commodities on many tropical islands. The open-cycle process has unknowns that require solution before the technical feasibility can be demonstrated. The economic viability of either cycle depends on reducing the capital costs of OTEC plants and on future trends in the costs of conventional energy sources. 7 refs.

  2. Effects of Ocean Ecosystem on Marine Aerosol-Cloud Interaction

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Nenes, Athanasios

    2010-01-01

    Using smore » atellite data for the surface ocean, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and cloud microphysical parameters, we show that statistically significant positive correlations exist between ocean ecosystem productivity, the abundance of submicron aerosols, and cloud microphysical properties over different parts of the remote oceans. The correlation coefficient for remotely sensed surface chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl- a ]) and liquid cloud effective radii over productive areas of the oceans varies between − 0.2 and − 0.6 . Special attention is given to identifying (and addressing) problems from correlation analysis used in the previous studies that can lead to erroneous conclusions. A new approach (using the difference between retrieved AOD and predicted sea salt aerosol optical depth, AOD diff ) is developed to explore causal links between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the remote marine atmosphere. We have found that over multiple time periods, 550 nm AOD diff (sensitive to accumulation mode aerosol, which is the prime contributor to CCN) correlates well with [Chl- a ] over the productive waters of the Southern Ocean. Since [Chl- a ] can be used as a proxy of ocean biological productivity, our analysis demonstrates the role of ocean ecology in contributing CCN, thus shaping the microphysical properties of low-level marine clouds.« less

  3. Cask fleet operations study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1988-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 assigned to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Civilian Waste Management the responsibility for disposing of high-level waste and spent fuel. A significant part of that responsibility involves transporting nuclear waste materials within the federal waste management system; that is, from the waste generator to the repository. The lead responsibility for transportation operations has been assigned to Oak Ridge Operations, with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) providing technical support through the Transportation Operations Support Task Group. One of the ORNL support activities involves assessing what facilities, equipment and services are required to assure that an acceptable, cost-effective and safe transportation operations system can be designed, operated and maintained. This study reviews, surveys and assesses the experience of Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) in operating a fleet of spent-fuel shipping casks to aid in developing the spent-fuel transportation system.

  4. Site Operator Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    Collectively, the organizations participating in the Site Operator Program have over forty years of EV experience and have operated electric vehicles (EVs) for over 600,000 miles, providing the most extensive EV operating and knowledge base in the country. The Site Operator Program is intended to provide financial and technical support and organizational resources to organizations active in the advancement of electric vehicles. Support is provided for the demonstration of vehicles and the test and evaluation of vehicles, components, and batteries. Support is also provided for the management and support of the program for the participating organizations. The Program provides a forum for participants to exchange information among the group, as well as with vehicle and equipment manufacturers and suppliers, and the public. A central data base at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory provides a repository for-data on the vehicles being operated by the Program participants. Data collection emphasis is in the areas of operations, maintenance, and life cycle costs.

  5. Site Operator Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, J.F.

    1991-12-31

    Collectively, the organizations participating in the Site Operator Program have over forty years of EV experience and have operated electric vehicles (EVs) for over 600,000 miles, providing the most extensive EV operating and knowledge base in the country. The Site Operator Program is intended to provide financial and technical support and organizational resources to organizations active in the advancement of electric vehicles. Support is provided for the demonstration of vehicles and the test and evaluation of vehicles, components, and batteries. Support is also provided for the management and support of the program for the participating organizations. The Program provides a forum for participants to exchange information among the group, as well as with vehicle and equipment manufacturers and suppliers, and the public. A central data base at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory provides a repository for-data on the vehicles being operated by the Program participants. Data collection emphasis is in the areas of operations, maintenance, and life cycle costs.

  6. EnergySolution's Clive Disposal Facility Operational Research Model - 13475

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nissley, Paul; Berry, Joanne

    2013-07-01

    EnergySolutions owns and operates a licensed, commercial low-level radioactive waste disposal facility located in Clive, Utah. The Clive site receives low-level radioactive waste from various locations within the United States via bulk truck, containerised truck, enclosed truck, bulk rail-cars, rail boxcars, and rail inter-modals. Waste packages are unloaded, characterized, processed, and disposed of at the Clive site. Examples of low-level radioactive waste arriving at Clive include, but are not limited to, contaminated soil/debris, spent nuclear power plant components, and medical waste. Generators of low-level radioactive waste typically include nuclear power plants, hospitals, national laboratories, and various United States government operated waste sites. Over the past few years, poor economic conditions have significantly reduced the number of shipments to Clive. With less revenue coming in from processing shipments, Clive needed to keep its expenses down if it was going to maintain past levels of profitability. The Operational Research group of EnergySolutions were asked to develop a simulation model to help identify any improvement opportunities that would increase overall operating efficiency and reduce costs at the Clive Facility. The Clive operations research model simulates the receipt, movement, and processing requirements of shipments arriving at the facility. The model includes shipment schedules, processing times of various waste types, labor requirements, shift schedules, and site equipment availability. The Clive operations research model has been developed using the WITNESS{sup TM} process simulation software, which is developed by the Lanner Group. The major goals of this project were to: - identify processing bottlenecks that could reduce the turnaround time from shipment arrival to disposal; - evaluate the use (or idle time) of labor and equipment; - project future operational requirements under different forecasted scenarios. By identifying processing bottlenecks and unused equipment and/or labor, improvements to operating efficiency could be determined and appropriate cost saving measures implemented. Model runs forecasting various scenarios helped illustrate potential impacts of certain conditions (e.g. 20% decrease in shipments arrived), variables (e.g. 20% decrease in labor), or other possible situations. (authors)

  7. An assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion as an advanced electric generation methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heydt, G.T. . School of Electrical Engineering)

    1993-03-01

    Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a process that employs the temperature difference between surface and deep ocean water to alternately evaporate and condense a working fluid. In the open-cycle OTEC configuration, the working fluid is seawater. In the closed-cycle configuration, a working fluid such as propane is used. In this paper, OTEC is assessed for its practical merits for electric power generation. The process is not new--and its history is reviewed. Because the OTEC principle operates under a small net temperature difference regime, rather large amounts of seawater and working fluid are required. The energy requirements for pumping these fluids may be greater than the energy recovered from the OTEC engine itself. The concept of net power production is discussed. The components of a typical OTEC plant are discussed with emphasis on the evaporator heat exchanger. Operation of an OTEC electric generating station is discussed, including transient operation. Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of OTEC is the recent experiments and efforts at the Natural Energy Laboratory--Hawaii (NELH). The NELH work is summarized in the paper. Remarks are made on bottlenecks and the future of OTEC as an advanced electric generation methodology.

  8. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  9. Operating Experience Summaries

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office of Environment, Health, Safety and Security (AU) Office of Analysis publishes the Operating Experience Summary to exchange lessons-learned information between DOE facilities.

  10. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    & RESIDUE 0 AECMED INVOLVEME?JT AT SITE ...----------- Control a Health Physics Protection 0 AECfMED managed operations G Little or None 0 AEUMED respansible far C ...

  11. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    . .' .,Ec-itkED I' NVULVEFY l- AT SITE '---------... .Control c Health Physics Protection 0 AECMED managed operations G Little or None :kf AECMED responsible for ...

  12. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    operations G AECtlED responsible for acrountability . G I i I : I I 1 Health Physics; Protection ; c Little or, None, .c AECMED responsibility c Contractoi ...

  13. ARM - AAF Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2007 - UAV Campaigns 1993 - 2006, 2015 Other Aircraft Campaigns 1993 - 2010 AAF Contacts Rickey Petty DOE AAF Program Director Beat Schmid Technical Director AAF Operations...

  14. APS User Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Schedules APS Schedule Useful Links Beamline Design Library (former Design Exchange) Machine Status Link Bunch Clock Information APS Systems Status Storage Ring Operating Status...

  15. APS Operational Statistics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Downtime Log Yearly Operation Statistics 2016 Statistics 2015 Statistics 2014 Statistics 2013 Statistics 2012 Statistics 2011 Statistics 2010 Statistics 2009 Statistics 2008...

  16. Operator interface for vehicles

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bissontz, Jay E

    2015-03-10

    A control interface for drivetrain braking provided by a regenerative brake and a non-regenerative brake is implemented using a combination of switches and graphic interface elements. The control interface comprises a control system for allocating drivetrain braking effort between the regenerative brake and the non-regenerative brake, a first operator actuated control for enabling operation of the drivetrain braking, and a second operator actuated control for selecting a target braking effort for drivetrain braking. A graphic display displays to an operator the selected target braking effort and can be used to further display actual braking effort achieved by drivetrain braking.

  17. Operations Committee Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Presented to the Commission to Review Effectiveness of National Energy Laboratories Jeff Smith Deputy for Operations Oak Ridge National Laboratory February 24, 2015 The Importance ...

  18. ARM - Historical Operational Statistics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    For a complete description of hours for each site, please refer to the current ARM Climate Research Facility Operations Quarterly Report. The tables below provide the...

  19. ARM - AMF Operations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2009-2010 Shouxian, China, 2008 Black Forest, Germany, 2007 Niamey, Niger, 2006 Point Reyes, California, 2005 AMF Operations Members of the AMF1 installation team prepare the...

  20. OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion) CWP (Cold Water Pipe) Laboratory Test Program. Ocean Systems Test Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-09-01

    This document presents the plan for validating the ocean systems response codes used in the OTEC community. Ocean systems used here includes the platform, the CWP, and the mooring system. The objectives of the present program are to acquire test data on the response of the ocean system to wave excitation available frequency domain computer codes. If the codes are not fully validated upon comparison of the test data with the calculations, the objectives are to identify discrepancies, establish the range of code usefulness and to recommend improvements. Model tests will be conducted in the OTC model basin with the CWP extending into the 30 foot deep pit. This limits the model scale to 1:110. Three types of prototype CWP's will be modeled: rigid, articulated and compliant. Two mooring stiffnesses will be tested based on the Lockheed mooring study. The model platform is a modified version of the APL barge redesigned to improve seakeeping performance. Computer code calculations will be made with the ROTEC and NOAA/DOE frequency domain codes. Standard response parameters will be compared with the test data (stress and motion maxima, significant and RMS magnitudes as well as selected RAO's). Wave drift forces will be estimated and compared to test data.

  1. Contribution of oceanic gas hydrate dissociation to the formation of Arctic Ocean methane plumes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reagan, M.; Moridis, G.; Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.

    2011-06-01

    Vast quantities of methane are trapped in oceanic hydrate deposits, and there is concern that a rise in the ocean temperature will induce dissociation of these hydrate accumulations, potentially releasing large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Because methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, such a release could have dramatic climatic consequences. The recent discovery of active methane gas venting along the landward limit of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) on the shallow continental slope (150 m - 400 m) west of Svalbard suggests that this process may already have begun, but the source of the methane has not yet been determined. This study performs 2-D simulations of hydrate dissociation in conditions representative of the Arctic Ocean margin to assess whether such hydrates could contribute to the observed gas release. The results show that shallow, low-saturation hydrate deposits, if subjected to recently observed or future predicted temperature changes at the seafloor, can release quantities of methane at the magnitudes similar to what has been observed, and that the releases will be localized near the landward limit of the GHSZ. Both gradual and rapid warming is simulated, along with a parametric sensitivity analysis, and localized gas release is observed for most of the cases. These results resemble the recently published observations and strongly suggest that hydrate dissociation and methane release as a result of climate change may be a real phenomenon, that it could occur on decadal timescales, and that it already may be occurring.

  2. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Life Cycle Cost Assessment, Final Technical Report, 30 May 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martel, Laura; Smith, Paul; Rizea, Steven; Van Ryzin, Joe; Morgan, Charles; Noland, Gary; Pavlosky, Rick; Thomas, Michael

    2012-06-30

    The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Life Cycle Cost Assessment (OLCCA) is a study performed by members of the Lockheed Martin (LM) OTEC Team under funding from the Department of Energy (DOE), Award No. DE-EE0002663, dated 01/01/2010. OLCCA objectives are to estimate procurement, operations and maintenance, and overhaul costs for two types of OTEC plants: -Plants moored to the sea floor where the electricity produced by the OTEC plant is directly connected to the grid ashore via a marine power cable (Grid Connected OTEC plants) -Open-ocean grazing OTEC plant-ships producing an energy carrier that is transported to designated ports (Energy Carrier OTEC plants) Costs are developed using the concept of levelized cost of energy established by DOE for use in comparing electricity costs from various generating systems. One area of system costs that had not been developed in detail prior to this analysis was the operations and sustainment (O&S) cost for both types of OTEC plants. Procurement costs, generally referred to as capital expense and O&S costs (operations and maintenance (O&M) costs plus overhaul and replacement costs), are assessed over the 30 year operational life of the plants and an annual annuity calculated to achieve a levelized cost (constant across entire plant life). Dividing this levelized cost by the average annual energy production results in a levelized cost of electricity, or LCOE, for the OTEC plants. Technical and production efficiency enhancements that could result in a lower value of the OTEC LCOE were also explored. The thermal OTEC resource for Oahu, Hawai’i and projected build out plan were developed. The estimate of the OTEC resource and LCOE values for the planned OTEC systems enable this information to be displayed as energy supplied versus levelized cost of the supplied energy; this curve is referred to as an Energy Supply Curve. The Oahu Energy Supply Curve represents initial OTEC deployment starting in 2018 and demonstrates the predicted economies of scale as technology and efficiency improvements are realized and larger more economical plants deployed. Utilizing global high resolution OTEC resource assessment from the Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization (OTEEV) project (an independent DOE project), Global Energy Supply Curves were generated for Grid Connected and Energy Carrier OTEC plants deployed in 2045 when the predicted technology and efficiencies improvements are fully realized. The Global Energy Supply Curves present the LCOE versus capacity in ascending order with the richest, lowest cost resource locations being harvested first. These curves demonstrate the vast ocean thermal resource and potential OTEC capacity that can be harvested with little change in LCOE.

  3. Facilitation of the Estuary/Ocean Subgroup for Federal Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation, FY10 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Gary E.

    2010-10-26

    The Estuary/Ocean Subgroup (EOS) is part of the research, monitoring, and evaluation (RME) effort that the Action Agencies (Bonneville Power Administration, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) developed in response to obligations arising from the Endangered Species Act as applied to operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). The goal of the EOS project is to facilitate activities of the estuary/ocean RME subgroup as it coordinates design and implementation of federal RME in the lower Columbia River and estuary. The EOS is one of multiple work groups in the federal research, monitoring, and evaluation (RME) effort developed in response to responsibilities arising from the Endangered Species Act as a result of operation of the FCRPS. The EOS is tasked by NOAA Fisheries and the Action Agencies to design and coordinate implementation of the federal RME plan for the lower Columbia River and estuary, including the plume.

  4. CX-000949: Categorical Exclusion Determination

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Princeton)CX(s) Applied: A9Date: 03/01/2010Location(s): New JerseyOffice(s): Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory

  5. CX-000950: Categorical Exclusion Determination

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (College Station)CX(s) Applied: A9Date: 03/01/2010Location(s): College Station, TexasOffice(s): Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory

  6. CX-000946: Categorical Exclusion Determination

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Portland)CX(s) Applied: A9Date: 03/01/2010Location(s): Portland, OregonOffice(s): Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory

  7. CX-000951: Categorical Exclusion Determination

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Los Angeles)CX(s) Applied: A9Date: 03/01/2010Location(s): Los Angeles, CaliforniaOffice(s): Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory

  8. CX-000947: Categorical Exclusion Determination

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Raleigh)CX(s) Applied: A9Date: 03/01/2010Location(s): Raleigh, North CarolinaOffice(s): Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory

  9. Aquantis 2.5MW Ocean Current Generation Device | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Aquantis 2.5MW Ocean Current Generation Device Aquantis 2.5MW Ocean Current Generation Device Aquantis 2.5MW Ocean Current Generation Device File 12aquantisawpdaalexfleming.pptx ...

  10. Stirling machine operating experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ross, B.; Dudenhoefer, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    Numerous Stirling machines have been built and operated, but the operating experience of these machines is not well known. It is important to examine this operating experience in detail, because it largely substantiates the claim that Stirling machines are capable of reliable and lengthy lives. The amount of data that exists is impressive, considering that many of the machines that have been built are developmental machines intended to show proof of concept, and were not expected to operate for any lengthy period of time. Some Stirling machines (typically free-piston machines) achieve long life through non-contact bearings, while other Stirling machines (typically kinematic) have achieved long operating lives through regular seal and bearing replacements. In addition to engine and system testing, life testing of critical components is also considered.

  11. Characterization of U.S. Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Test Sites: A Catalogue of Met-Ocean Data

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    8206 Unlimited Release Printed September 2014 Characterization of U.S. Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Test Sites: A Catalogue of Met-Ocean Data Ann R. Dallman, Vincent S. Neary Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security

  12. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  13. Mapping the Potential of U.S. Ocean Energy | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    available in the nation's waves, tidal and river currents, and ocean thermal gradients. ... and global wave, tidal, ocean thermal, and continental U.S. river hydrokinetic resources. ...

  14. Stirling machine operating experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ross, B.; Dudenhoefer, J.E.

    1994-09-01

    Numerous Stirling machines have been built and operated, but the operating experience of these machines is not well known. It is important to examine this operating experience in detail, because it largely substantiates the claim that stirling machines are capable of reliable and lengthy operating lives. The amount of data that exists is impressive, considering that many of the machines that have been built are developmental machines intended to show proof of concept, and are not expected to operate for lengthy periods of time. Some Stirling machines (typically free-piston machines) achieve long life through non-contact bearings, while other Stirling machines (typically kinematic) have achieved long operating lives through regular seal and bearing replacements. In addition to engine and system testing, life testing of critical components is also considered. The record in this paper is not complete, due to the reluctance of some organizations to release operational data and because several organizations were not contacted. The authors intend to repeat this assessment in three years, hoping for even greater participation.

  15. Operational Management | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operational Management Operational Management Operational Management Leadership Contact Information Office of Resource Management and Planning U.S. Department of Energy, MA-1.1 ...

  16. NERSC Operational Assessment Review

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC Operational Assessment Review Agenda and Logistics Home » Events » HPC Workshops » NERSC Operational Assessment Review NERSC Operational Assessment Review By invitation only. Agenda TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 16 8am - Coffee and Pastries 8:15am: Welcome and logistics - Katie Antypas 8:20am: Welcome and DOE charge - Dave Goodwin 8:30am - 9:15am:Year in Review - Sudip Dosanjh 9:30am - 10:30am: User Results - Katie Antypas 10:45 - 11:am: Break 11:00-11:45: Science and Strategic Results - Richard

  17. Operations & Administration - JCAP

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Heat & Cool » Heat Pump Systems » Operating and Maintaining Your Heat Pump Operating and Maintaining Your Heat Pump Changing filters regularly is an important part of maintaining a heat pump system. | Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto/BanksPhotos Changing filters regularly is an important part of maintaining a heat pump system. | Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto/BanksPhotos Proper operation of your heat pump will save energy. Do not set back the heat pump's thermostat if it causes the

  18. Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean (Conference) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Broadband Particle Filtering in a Noisy Littoral Ocean Authors: Candy, J V Publication Date: 2015-02-12 OSTI Identifier: 1184166 Report Number(s): LLNL-CONF-667626 DOE Contract Number: DE-AC52-07NA27344 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Presented at: OCEANS'15, Genova, Italy, May 18 - May 21, 2015 Research Org: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL),

  19. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  20. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  1. Conduct of Operations

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2010-06-29

    This Order defines the requirements for establishing and implementing Conduct of Operations Programs at Department of Energy (DOE), including National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), facilities and projects. Cancels DOE O 5480.19. Admin Chg 1, 6-25-13

  2. Protection Program Operations

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2014-10-14

    This Order establishes requirements for the management and operation of the Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Protective Forces (FPF), Contractor Protective Forces (CPF), and the Physical Security of property and personnel under the cognizance of DOE.

  3. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    WASTE G RESIDUE a i-CtlED INVOLVE"ENT-AT SITE -'---... Control ci Health Physics Protection 0 AECtlED managed operations c Little or None G AECMED rea' poneible for ...

  4. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    181 WASTE & RESIDUE q ,r . ,, A&MED I NVOLVEMENI-AT SITE I - . : Control 1 Health Physics Protection ' I, 0 AEWHED managed operations 0 Little or None 13 AEWHED responsible for ...

  5. TYPE OF OPERATION

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    b RESIDUE q GOUT LECISED CONTReCTOR CONTRCICTOR -EEL ---LEeSED Control Health Physics 0 AEWMED managed operations q Little or No 0 AECMED responsible for AEWMED resp ...

  6. Reduction/Transformation Operators

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-09-01

    RTOp (reduction/transformation operators) is a collection of C++ software that provides the basic mechanism for implementinig vector operations in a flexible and efficient manner. This is the main interface utilized by Thyra to allow for the specification of specific vector reduction and/or transformation operations. The RTOp package contains three different types of software. (a) a small number of interoperability interfaces. (b) support software including code for the parallel SPMD mode based on only Teuchos::Comm(and notmore » MPl directly(, and (c) a library of pre-implemented RTOp subclasses for everything from simple AXPYs and norms, to more specialized vector operations. RTOp allows an algorithm developer to implement their own RTOp subclasses in a way that is independent from any specific serial, parallel, out-of-core or other type of vector implementation. RTOp is a required package by Thyra and MOOCHO. (c)« less

  7. Conduct of Operations

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2010-06-29

    This Order defines the requirements for establishing and implementing Conduct of Operations Programs at Department of Energy (DOE), including National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), facilities and projects. Admin Chg 2, dated 12-3-14, supersedes Admin Chg 1.

  8. Operations Security Program

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1992-04-30

    To establish policies, responsibilities and authorities for implementing and sustaining the Department of Energy (DOE) Operations Security (OPSEC) Program. Cancels DOE O 5632.3B. Canceled by DOE O 471.2 of 9-28-1995.

  9. Operating plan FY 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-10-01

    This document is the first edition of Argonne`s new Operating Plan. The Operating Plan complements the strategic planning in the Laboratory`s Institutional Plan by focusing on activities that are being pursued in the immediate fiscal year, FY 1998. It reflects planning that has been done to date, and it will serve in the future as a resource and a benchmark for understanding the Laboratory`s performance. The heart of the Institutional Plan is the set of major research initiatives that the Laboratory is proposing to implement in future years. In contrast, this Operating Plan focuses on Argonne`s ongoing R&D programs, along with cost-saving measures and other improvements being implemented in Laboratory support operations.

  10. Continuity of Operations

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2005-01-14

    The notice defines requirements and responsibilities for continuity of operations planning within the DOE to ensure the capability to continue essential Departmental functions across a wide range of all hazard emergencies. Does not cancel other directives.

  11. Rich land Operations Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rich land Operations Office P.O. Box 550 July 10, 2009 CERTIFIED MAIL Mr. Ryan Jarvis Heart of America Northwest 1314 N.E. 56h" Street Suite 100 Seattle, Washington 98105 Dear Mr....

  12. CH Packaging Operations Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Washington TRU Solutions LLC

    2005-06-13

    This procedure provides instructions for assembling the CH Packaging Drum payload assembly, Standard Waste Box (SWB) assembly, Abnormal Operations and ICV and OCV Preshipment Leakage Rate Tests on the packaging seals, using a nondestructive Helium (He) Leak Test.

  13. Deputy Chief Operating Officer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position will be filled at either Morgantown, WV or Pittsburgh, PA. A successful candidate in this position will serve as the Deputy Chief Operating Officer assigned to the Laboratory...

  14. Oceanic Communities in a Changing Planet - The Tara Oceans Project (GSC8 Meeting)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Raes, Jeroen [University of Brussels

    2011-04-28

    The Genomic Standards Consortium was formed in September 2005. It is an international, open-membership working body which promotes standardization in the description of genomes and the exchange and integration of genomic data. The 2009 meeting was an activity of a five-year funding "Research Coordination Network" from the National Science Foundation and was organized held at the DOE Joint Genome Institute with organizational support provided by the JGI and by the University of California - San Diego. Jeroen Raes of the University of Brussels discusses the Tara-Oceans expedition at the Genomic Standards Consortium's 8th meeting at the DOE JGI in Walnut Creek, Calif. on Sept. 9, 2009

  15. Operations | The Ames Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Welcome to the Ames Laboratory and the operations pages of our website. Our website has recently been revised starting with the front page, the science division pages and a few pages needed for public interface. If you find that the pages you need are not available please contact the Manager in charge (i.e., Purchasing, Sponsored Programs, etc.) and we will get you the information you need.

  16. Richland Operations Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    /: -. !~t. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office P.O. Box 550 Richland, Washington 99352 Nav 0 4 ?nn~ 05-AMCP-OO46 Mr. Todd Martin, Chair Hanford Advisory Board 1933 Jadwin, Suite 135 Richland, Washington 99352 Dear Mr. Martin: HANFORD ADVISORY BOARD (HAB) ADVICE #166 -FUND U PLANT AREA REMEDIATION ACTIVITIES In response to your letter dated September 10, 2004, the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (RL), appreciates your recommendations contained in HAB Consensus

  17. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  18. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  19. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  20. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  1. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  2. Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations: Analytical Framework and Arizona Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Jing; Botterud, Audun; Mills, Andrew; Zhou, Zhi; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Mike, Heaney

    2015-06-01

    A systematic framework is proposed to estimate the impact on operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources. The framework quantifies the integration costs associated with subhourly variability and uncertainty as well as day-ahead forecasting errors in solar PV (photovoltaics) power. A case study illustrates how changes in system operations may affect these costs for a utility in the southwestern United States (Arizona Public Service Company). We conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis under different assumptions about balancing reserves, system flexibility, fuel prices, and forecasting errors. We find that high solar PV penetrations may lead to operational challenges, particularly during low-load and high solar periods. Increased system flexibility is essential for minimizing integration costs and maintaining reliability. In a set of sensitivity cases where such flexibility is provided, in part, by flexible operations of nuclear power plants, the estimated integration costs vary between $1.0 and $4.4/MWh-PV for a PV penetration level of 17%. The integration costs are primarily due to higher needs for hour-ahead balancing reserves to address the increased sub-hourly variability and uncertainty in the PV resource. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Potential impact of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) on fisheries. Technical report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, E.P.; Hoss, D.E.; Matsumoto, W.M.; Peters, D.S.; Seki, M.P.

    1986-06-01

    The commercial development of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) operations will involve some environmental perturbations for which there is no precedent experience. The pumping of very large volumes of warm surface water and cold deep water and its subsequent discharge will result in the impingement, entrainment, and redistribution of biota. Additional stresses to biota will be caused by biocide usage and temperature depressions. However, the artificial upwelling of nutrients associated with the pumping of cold deep water, and the artificial reef created by an OTEC plant may have positive effects on the local environment. Although more detailed information is needed to assess the net effect of an OTEC operation on fisheries, certain assumptions and calculations are made, supporting the conclusion that the potential risk to fisheries is not signnificant enough to deter the early development of OTEC. It will be necessary to monitor a commercial-scale plant in order to remove many of the remaining uncertainties.

  4. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon Assessment of ...

  5. Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

    2011-02-16

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

  6. Origin of banded iron formations : oceanic crust leaching & self...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Subject: 58 GEOSCIENCES; IRON; LEACHING; OCEANIC CRUST; ORIGIN Word Cloud More Like This Full Text Journal Articles Find in Google Scholar Find in Google Scholar Search WorldCat ...

  7. MHK Technologies/OceanStar | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy efficient process to smooth out the pulse characteristics common to wave energy in order to be electrical grid friendly The OceanStars high level of scalability is...

  8. Aquantis C-Plane Ocean Current Turbine Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fleming, Alex

    2015-09-16

    The Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device technology developed by Dehlsen Associates, LLC (DA) is a derivation of wind power generating technology (a means of harnessing a slow moving fluid) adapted to the ocean environment. The Aquantis Project provides an opportunity for accelerated technological development and early commercialization, since it involves the joining of two mature disciplines: ocean engineering and wind turbine design. The Aquantis Current Plane (C-Plane) technology is an ocean current turbine designed to extract kinetic energy from a current flow. The technology is capable of achieving competitively priced, continuous, base-load, and reliable power generation from a source of renewable energy not before possible in this scale or form.

  9. Lab researchers develop models to analyze mixing in the ocean

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    scales of less than 100 km and timescales on the order of a month. Mesoscale ocean eddies are currents which flow in a roughly circular motion around the center of the eddy. ...

  10. Visualization and analysis of eddies in a global ocean simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Sean J; Hecht, Matthew W; Petersen, Mark; Strelitz, Richard; Maltrud, Mathew E; Ahrens, James P; Hlawitschka, Mario; Hamann, Bernd

    2010-10-15

    Eddies at a scale of approximately one hundred kilometers have been shown to be surprisingly important to understanding large-scale transport of heat and nutrients in the ocean. Due to difficulties in observing the ocean directly, the behavior of eddies below the surface is not very well understood. To fill this gap, we employ a high-resolution simulation of the ocean developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Using large-scale parallel visualization and analysis tools, we produce three-dimensional images of ocean eddies, and also generate a census of eddy distribution and shape averaged over multiple simulation time steps, resulting in a world map of eddy characteristics. As expected from observational studies, our census reveals a higher concentration of eddies at the mid-latitudes than the equator. Our analysis further shows that mid-latitude eddies are thicker, within a range of 1000-2000m, while equatorial eddies are less than 100m thick.

  11. Feasibility of Tital and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass,...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Monty Worthington Director of Project Development - Alaska Feasibility of Tidal and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass, Aleutian Islands, Alaska (DE-EE0005624.000) Presented to DOE ...

  12. Ocean Wave Wind Energy Ltd OWWE | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Wind Energy Ltd OWWE Jump to: navigation, search Name: Ocean Wave Wind Energy Ltd OWWE Region: Norway Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic Website: www.owwe.net This company is listed...

  13. ARM - Field Campaign - Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsSurface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) Campaign Links SHEBA Website ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note...

  14. Finavera Renewables Ocean Energy Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ocean Energy Ltd Address: 595 Burrard Street Suite 3113 Three Bentall Centre PO Box 49071 Place: Vancouver Zip: V7X 1G4 Region: Canada Sector: Marine and Hydrokinetic...

  15. MHK Technologies/Ocean Powered Compressed Air Stations | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Description The Ocean Powered Compressed Air Station is a point absorber that uses an air pump to force air to a landbased generator The device only needs 4m water depth and...

  16. Coastal ocean current response to storm winds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.

    1982-03-20

    Design of offshore structures requires knowledge of the appropriate current profile to be used in conjunction with the design wave. Accurate determination of the current profile will depend on reliable current models. Vertical transfer of momentum in storm-driven current models is commonly treated either by using eddy viscosity or by assuming 'slab-like' mixed layer flow. These two fundamentally different approaches predict different current speeds and profiles during severe storms. The existing data base is inadequate to determine which approach is better, but most existing data sets are subject to one or more of four limitations that can lead one improperly to interpret the data as supporting the existence of current velocity shear in otherwise uniform mixed layers. One-dimensional slab models are found to compare favorably with observed wind-driven currents at the Ocean Test Structure in the Gulf of Mexico (deployed in 20 m deep water). By using some reasonably simple assumptions, these slab models are able to replicate many of the significantly features of the wide range of different responses. The character of the response appears to depend on an interaction of stratification and topography. Barotropic responses are characteristic of typical coastal responses; current oriented longshore and are in phase with the wind. Baroclinic responses are dominantly inertial as might be expected in the deep sea, but with an additional near-bottom cross-shore counter flow. The structure of one observed barotropic response is compared to detail to predictions of both slab and eddy viscosity models and found consistent with a slab model and inconsistent with eddy viscosity models. Shear observed during this event was not significantly different from zero, but was significantly below estimated shear predictions of four eddy viscosity models given the peak 0.4 N/m/sup 2/ wind stress.

  17. Natural Aerosols Explain Seasonal and Spatial Patterns of Southern Ocean

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Cloud Albedo (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Natural Aerosols Explain Seasonal and Spatial Patterns of Southern Ocean Cloud Albedo Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Natural Aerosols Explain Seasonal and Spatial Patterns of Southern Ocean Cloud Albedo Small particles called aerosols act as nucleation sites for cloud drop formation, affecting clouds and cloud properties - ultimately influencing the cloud dynamics, lifetime, water path and areal extent that determine the

  18. Polluting of Winter Convective Clouds upon Transition from Ocean Inland

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Over Central California: Contrasting Case Studies (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Polluting of Winter Convective Clouds upon Transition from Ocean Inland Over Central California: Contrasting Case Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Polluting of Winter Convective Clouds upon Transition from Ocean Inland Over Central California: Contrasting Case Studies In-situ aircraft measurements of aerosol chemical and cloud microphysical properties were conducted during the CalWater

  19. Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON). Particulate

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Matter and Gases Final Campaign Summary (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON). Particulate Matter and Gases Final Campaign Summary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON). Particulate Matter and Gases Final Campaign Summary Because of their proven adverse effects on human health and vegetation, and also considering their influence over the local and regional

  20. Radioactivity in the ocean: laws and biological effects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1985-01-01

    This paper summarizes the literature on US laws and international agreements, experimental and monitoring data, and ongoing studies to provide background information for environmental assessment and regulatory compliance activities for ocean dumping of low-level radioactive waste. The Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act is the major US legislation governing ocean disposal of radioactive waste. The major international agreement on ocean dumping is the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and other Matter. The United States ended its ocean dumping of radioactive wastes in 1970, but other countries have continued ocean dumping under international supervision in the northeast Atlantic. Monitoring of former US disposal sites has neither revealed significant effects on marine biota nor indicated a hazard to human health. Also, no effects on marine organisms have been found that could be attributed to routine discharges into the Irish Sea from the Windscale reprocessing plant. We must improve our ability to predict the oceanic carrying capacity and the fate and effects of ionizing radiation in the marine environment.