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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Crude Oil Price Forecast  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

We believe crude oil prices will strengthen somewhat, but prices will rise much more slowly than they fell, and they are expected to remain lower in ...

2

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

3

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

4

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE,? JOHN ZYREN,?? AND JOANNE SHORE?? Abstract This paper presents a short ...

5

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

6

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

7

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Crude Oil Price Forecasting with an Improved Model Based on Wavelet Transform and RBF Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fluctuation of oil price decides the security of energy and economics. So the crude oil price forecasting performs importantly. In the paper, we apply the improved model based on Wavelet Transform and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network to ...

Wu Qunli; Hao Ge; Cheng Xiaodong

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Crude Oil Price Forecasting: A Transfer Learning Based Analog Complexing Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Most of the existing models for oil price forecasting only use the data in the forecasted time series itself. This study proposes a transfer learning based analog complexing model (TLAC). It first transfers some related time series in source domain to ... Keywords: transfer learning method, analog complexing model, genetic algorithm, crude oil price forecasting

Jin Xiao; Changzheng He; Shouyang Wang

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

A new method for crude oil price forecasting based on support vector machines  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a new method for crude oil price forecasting based on support vector machine (SVM). The procedure of developing a support vector machine model for time series forecasting involves data sampling, sample preprocessing, training & ...

Wen Xie; Lean Yu; Shanying Xu; Shouyang Wang

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Using artificial neural networks to forecast the futures prices of crude oil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Crude oil is the commodity de jour and its pricing is of paramount importance to the layperson as well as to any responsible government. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric pricing models is the forecasting accuracy. ...

Hassan A. Khazem / A. K. Mazouz

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Oil Price Forecasting with an EMD-Based Multiscale Neural Network Learning Paradigm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a multiscale neural network learning paradigm based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed for crude oil price prediction. In this learning paradigm, the original price series are first decomposed into various independent intrinsic ... Keywords: Crude oil price forecasting, artificial neural networks, empirical mode decomposition, multiscale learning paradigm

Lean Yu; Kin Keung Lai; Shouyang Wang; Kaijian He

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

RDI forecasts oil price increase impact on electric consumers  

SciTech Connect

According to a publication by Resource Data International, Inc. (RDI), Boulder, Colorado, the current oil price increases will effect electricity consumers nationwide. While the direct use of fuel oil and natural gas as boiler fuels is expected to decline with rising prices, the cost of alternative energy sources including coal, nuclear, and hydro are also expected to rise, RDI said.

Not Available

1990-10-25T23:59:59.000Z

16

Crude Oil Price Forecast - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Cutbacks in heavy crude oil production targeted by Mexico, Saudi Arabia and to some degree Venezuela should help narrow the differential. The ...

17

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

18

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Revised Draft Fuel Price Forecasts for the Draft  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural gas prices, as well as oil and coal prices, are forecast using an Excel spreadsheet model at this time, natural gas prices are forecast in more detail than oil and coal prices. Residential in the industrial boiler fuel market to help keep natural gas prices low. Continuing declines in coal prices coupled

20

DRAFT FUEL PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE 5TH  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Forecast Methods Natural gas prices, as well as oil and coal prices, are forecast using an Excel in more detail than oil and coal prices. Residential and commercial sector retail natural gas prices market to help keep natural gas prices low. Continuing declines in coal prices coupled with improved

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

22

Short- and long-term price forecasting for palm and lauric oils  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Dorab E. Mistry presents excerpts from a talk he delivered at the 6th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) & 2011 Price Outlook, organized by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) and held December 13, 2010, at the Westin Resort Nusa Dua, Bali. Sho

23

Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Classification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization, Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch produce24 price forecasting and reports to predict the direction on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil

de Freitas, Nando

24

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices. WTI Crude Oil Price. Retail Gasoline Price. Source: Energy Information Administration

25

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

EIA Oil price timeline  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, ... Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions.

28

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),Figure 3. Price of crude oil contract maturing December ofbarrels per day. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Another important consideration in natural gas supply and cost is the capacity to transport the gas from.75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from Canada; and 1.1 trillion cubic feet of that were imported through would mean a growing role for frontier supply areas and liquefied natural gas imports. High prices

31

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

32

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by the residual quantity of oil that never gets produced.order to purchase a quantity Q barrels of oil at a price P tD t Q t Q t+1 Quantity Figure 5. Monthly oil production for

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...

34

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

35

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2000 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

36

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

37

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

38

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

39

Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and past heating season. As you can see, prices have started the heating season, about 40 to 50 cents per gallon higher than last year at this time. The data presented are from EIA's State Heating Oil and Propane Program. We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly. These data will also be used to determine the price trigger mechanism for the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve. The data are published at a State and regional level on our web site. The slide is to give you some perspective of what is happening in these markets, since you probably will get a number of calls from local residents about their heating fuels bills

40

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Retail distillate prices follow the spot distillate markets, and crude oil prices have been the main driver behind distillate spot price increases until recently.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information including all information contained in the history of past prices about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Oil Price Volatility  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Robert J. Weiner Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs Public Administration, and International Affairs George Washington University; George Washington University; Membre Associ Membre Associ é é , GREEN, Universit , GREEN, Universit é é Laval Laval EIA Annual Conference Washington Washington 7 April 2009 7 April 2009 1 FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY ► ► Market fundamentals Market fundamentals . . Fluctuations in supply, Fluctuations in supply, demand, and market power demand, and market power Some fundamentals related to expectations of Some fundamentals related to expectations of

48

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

20.86 20.67 20.47 20.24 20.32 19.57 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

49

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

50

Crude Oil Price Cycles  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The heating oil and diesel price runups in late January were made even more problematic by coming on top of the high side of the latest crude market cycle.

51

Crude Oil Price Cycles  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The heating oil and diesel fuel price runups in late January were made even more problematic by coming on top of the high side of the latest crude market cycle. Over the past 10...

52

Higher oil prices: Can OPEC raise prices by cutting production  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

OPEC's ability to raise prices is evaluated with a model that projects the supply and demand. As part of the model, a new methodology to forecast for the rate of production by non-OPEC nations is developed. A literature review of techniques for estimating oil supply and annual rates of production indicates a new methodology is needed. The new technique incorporates the geological, engineering, and economic aspects of the oil industry by synthesizing curve fitting and econometric techniques. It is used to analyze data for eight regions for non-OPEC oil production: the lower 48 states, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, non-OPEC South America, Western Europe, non-OPEC Africa, and non-OPEC Asia. OPEC's ability to raise prices is examined by tracking the percentage oil US oil demand supplied by imports, the portion of oil demand in Western Europe supplied by local production, the percentage of WOCA oil demand supplied by OPEC and Real OPEC revenues. Results of the model indicate that OPEC can raise oil prices in the early 1990s. OPEC can raise and sustain oil prices near $25 (1982 dollars). Higher oil prices ($35) are not sustainable before 2000 because reduced demand and increased non-OPEC production shrink OPEC revenues below acceptable levels. After 2000, $35 prices are sustainable.

Kaufmann, R.K.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Oil price analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The transport has been in the whole history of mankind the basic and determining mover of the human society shape. It determined not only the position of towns, but also their inner design and it was also last but not least the basic element of the economic ... Keywords: GDP, deposit, fuels, history, market equilibrium, oil, oil reserves, price

Zdenek Riha; Viktorie Jirova; Marek Honcu

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Distillate and Crude Oil Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

fuel and residential heating oil prices on the East Coast is being driven by higher crude oil prices than last year and higher spreads. Crude oil is projected to average almost...

55

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices have risen sharply over the last year, leading to concerns that we could see a repeat of the 1970s, when rising oil prices were accompanied by severe recessions and surging inflation. This Economic Letter examines the historical relationship between oil price shocks and inflation in light of some recent research and goes on to discuss what the recent jump in oil prices might mean for inflation in the future. Figure 1 Inflation and the relative price of oil The historical record Figure 1 plots the price of oil relative to the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) together with the core PCEPI inflation

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

57

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series toAEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a portion of the gas price forecast through 2010 can beAEO 2006 reference case forecast to conduct a 25-yearAEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by open circlesAEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceof AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsoof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

67

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter's market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through February 28, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Heating oil prices for East Coast consumers started this winter at just over $1 per gallon, but rising crude oil prices drove them up nearly 21 cents through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude oil markets, magnified by a regional shortfall of heating oil

68

Oil Prices and Inflation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

As oil prices have climbed over the last several years, the memory of the 1970s and early 1980s has not been far from the minds of the public or of monetary policymakers. In those earlier episodes, rising oil prices were accompanied by doubledigit overall inflation in the U.S. and in several other developed economies. Indeed, central bankers say they are determined not to let this experience recur, emphasizing that they intend to maintain their credibility with the public in securing low inflation and achieving stable and well-anchored inflation expectations. In pursuing these goals, a key measure policymakers often focus on is core inflation; this may seem surprising, since core inflation excludes energy prices, among other things.

unknown authors

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Oil price shocks: Testing a macroeconomic model  

SciTech Connect

The main research objective was to answer the following question: Will Consumer Price Index forecast models utilizing computer oil-consumption ratios have better predictive capability as indicated by lower numerical differences from actual results than a model utilizing oil prices as the energy-related variable Multiple linear regressions were run on the components of the United States CPI to reduce them to a kernel set with meaningful predictive capability. New linear regressions were run with this kernel set and crude oil prices during the 1973 to 1984 time period. Crude oil prices were rationalized with a 1972 = 100 based index of GNP base petroleum consumption, the index of net energy imports, and the index of petroleum imports to create new oil substitute constructs to be used in multiple regressions with the CPI. Predictions obtained from the model were compared with actual results in the 1985-1987 time period to determine which model version showed the greatest predictive power. Results of the model tests show that oil prices are strongly related to the CPI, but neither the use of oil prices or the index of GNP-based petroleum consumption produced results that closely predict future prices.

Williams, D.D.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has severely impacted diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast. Diesel fuel is bascially the same product as home heating oil. The primary difference is that diesel has a lower sulfur content. When heating oil is in short supply, low sulfur diesel fuel can be diverted to heating oil supply. Thus, diesel fuel prices rise with heating heating oil prices. Retail diesel fuel prices nationally, along with those of most other petroleum prices, increased steadily through most of 1999. But prices in the Northeast jumped dramatically in the third week of January. Diesel fuel prices in New England rose nearly 68 cents per gallon, or 47 percent, between January 17 and February 7. While EIA does not have

71

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Slide 2 of 11 Notes: One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter’s market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through February 7, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Heating oil prices for East Coast consumers started this winter at just over $1 per gallon, but rising crude oil prices drove them up nearly 21 cents per gallon through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude oil markets, magnified by a regional shortfall of

72

STEO January 2013 - world oil prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Gap between U.S. and world oil prices to be cut by more than Gap between U.S. and world oil prices to be cut by more than half over next two years The current wide price gap between a key U.S. and a world benchmark crude oil is expected to narrow significantly over the next two years. The spot price for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil, also known as WTI , averaged $94 a barrel in 2012. That's $18 less than North Sea Brent oil, which is a global benchmark crude that had an average price of $112 last year. The new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the price gap between the two crude oils to shrink to $16 a barrel this year and then to $8 in 2014. That's when WTI would average $91 a barrel and Brent would be at $99. The smaller price gap will result from new pipelines coming on line that will lower the cost of

73

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

74

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this hybrid NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notcomparison with fixed- price renewable generation (becauseonly a portion of the gas price forecast through 2010

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

longer-term market-based forecasts that can be used to more-AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

Wilson, WIlliam; Aickelin, Uwe

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has severely impacted diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast. Retail diesel price data are available sooner than residential heating oil data. This graph shows that diesel prices turned the corner sometime after February 7 and are heading down. Retail diesel fuel prices nationally, along with those of most other petroleum prices, increased steadily through most of 1999. Prices jumped dramatically (by over 11 cents per gallon) in the third week of January, and rose 2 or more cents a week through February 7. The increases were much more rapid in the Northeast. From January 17 through February 7, diesel fuel prices in New England rose nearly 68 cents per gallon, or 47 percent. Prices in the Mid-Atlantic region rose about 58

80

Stock Price and Index Forecasting by Arbitrage Pricing Theory-Based Gaussian TFA Learning  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Stock Price and Index Forecasting by Arbitrage Pricing Theory-Based Gaussian TFA Learning Kai Chun take advantage of those models. In literature, forecasting of stock prices within the framework Xu, (2002) "Stock price and index forecasting by arbitrage pricing theory-based gaussian TFA learning

Xu, Lei

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Oil Prices and Long-Run Risk.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide anexcellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low (more)

READY, ROBERT

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this hybrid NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notonly a portion of the gas price forecast through 2010 of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

91

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity Energy Commission until adopted at a public meeting. #12;Revised 1997 Retail Price Forecast, December ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

92

Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns. Section 3 covers current analytical and computer methods used to forecast stock market prices

Lawrence, Ramon

93

Electricity Market Price Forecasting in a Price-responsive Smart Grid Environment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of this load is to use electricity market price forecasts to op- timally schedule a combination of the gas of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors: A Demand-Side Analysis Hamidreza Zareipour, Member, IEEE, Claudio--Several techniques have been proposed in the liter- ature to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast

94

Winter Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Residential heating oil prices reflect a similar pattern to that shown in spot prices. However, like other retail petroleum prices, they tend to lag changes in wholesale prices in both directions, with the result that they don't rise as rapidly or as much, but they take longer to recede. This chart shows the residential heating oil prices collected under the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP), which only runs during the heating season, from October through March. The spike in New York Harbor spot prices last winter carried through to residential prices throughout New England and the Central Atlantic states. Though the spike actually lasted only a few weeks, residential prices ended the heating season well above where they had started.

95

Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesnt Reflect ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Gasoline pump prices have backed down from the high prices experienced ... with crude oil prices rebounding somewhat from their December lows combined ...

96

California Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

California Crude Oil Prices 6/2/98. Click here to start. Table of Contents. California Crude Oil Prices. CA Crude Oil Price History. World Petroleum Supply/Demand Balance

97

Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesn't Reflect Potential...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 Notes: EIA's gasoline price forecast has gasoline prices, on a monthly average, possibly exceeding 1.70 per gallon. Of course, weekly prices would likely peak this summer even...

98

Residential Heating Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly.

99

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings Hongwei Dong, Ph.D. Candidate John D. Hunt, Professor John Gliebe, Assistant Professor #12;Framework Oil-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

Bertini, Robert L.

102

Customer Response to Electricity Prices: Information to Support Wholesale Price Forecasting and Market Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding customer response to electricity price changes is critical to profitably managing a retail business, designing efficient wholesale power markets, and forecasting power prices for valuation of long-lived generating assets. This report packages the collective results of dozens of price response studies for use by forward price forecasters and power market analysts in forecasting loads, revenues, and the benefits of time-varying prices more accurately. In specific, the report describes key mea...

2001-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

103

Main elements for pig price forecasting A. VIGNE M. RIEU  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Main elements for pig price forecasting A. VIGNE M. RIEU I.T.P., Service Economie, 34, boulevard de the analysis of the past results. Forecasting consists in modelizing each component of pig price from la Gare, 31500 Toulouse The highly fluctuating variation of pig prices results from several

Recanati, Catherine

104

Crude Oil Price Prediction Using Slantlet Denoising Based Hybrid Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accurate prediction of crude oil price movement has always been the central issue with profound implications across different levels of the economy. This study conducts empirical investigations into the characteristics of crude oil market and proposes ... Keywords: Slantlet Analysis, ARMA Model, Hybrid Forecasting Algorithm, Rrandom Walk Model, Support Vector Regression

Kaijian He; Kin Keung Lai; Jerome Yen

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 Notes: This graph illustrates how crude oil explains much of the large movements in gasoline prices that we have seen over time -- such as during the Gulf War at the end of 1990,...

106

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

month of loading, the month of landing, or sometime between those events. Prices for crude oil can be determined at a time other than the acquisition date. See the Explanatory...

107

Oil price; oil demand shocks; oil supply shocks; dynamic effects.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Using a newly developed measure of global real economic activity, a structural decomposition of the real price of crude oil in four components is proposed: oil supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries; other oil supply shocks; aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities; and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. The latter shock is designed to capture shifts in the price of oil driven by higher precautionary demand associated with fears about future oil supplies. The paper quantifies the magnitude and timing of these shocks, their dynamic effects on the real price of oil and their relative importance in determining the real price of oil during 1975-2005. The analysis sheds light on the origin of the observed fluctuations in oil prices, in particular during oil price shocks. For example, it helps gauge the relative importance of these shocks in the build-up of the real price of crude oil since the late 1990s. Distinguishing between the sources of higher oil prices is shown to be crucial in assessing the effect of higher oil prices on U.S. real GDP and CPI inflation, suggesting that policies aimed at dealing with higher oil prices must take careful account of the origins of higher oil prices. The paper also quantifies the extent to which the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. since the mid-1970s has been driven by the external economic shocks driving the real price of oil as opposed to domestic economic factors and policies. Key words: JEL:

Lutz Kilian

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, andWorld Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, andProduction of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, and Re?

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline, NBER Working Paper.2006. Chinas Growing Demand for Oil and Its Impact on U.S.and Income on Energy and Oil Demand, Energy Journal 23(1),

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5. Monthly oil production for Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait, inday. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq Kuwait Figure 6.Arabia PRODUCTION QUOTA Iran PRODUCTION QUOTA Venezuela

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Forecasting the Price of Oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from Social

Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson; Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOcost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generationwith variable price gas-fired generation that are based

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Time Series Models .  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The objective of this thesis is to estimate the natural gas component of the All Urban Consumer Price Index (CP-U) using time series forecasting models. (more)

Berg, Andrew

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Electricity Price Curve Modeling and Forecasting by Manifold Learning  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a novel nonparametric approach for the modeling and analysis of electricity price curves by applying the manifold learning methodologylocally linear embedding (LLE). The prediction method based on manifold learning and reconstruction is employed to make short-term and mediumterm price forecasts. Our method not only performs accurately in forecasting one-day-ahead prices, but also has a great advantage in predicting one-week-ahead and one-month-ahead prices over other methods. The forecast accuracy is demonstrated by numerical results using historical price data taken from the Eastern U.S. electric power markets.

Jie Chen; Shi-Jie Deng; Xiaoming Huo

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

The Role of Forecasting, Price Negotiation and Procurement Management in Determining Availability of Antiretroviral Medicines (ARVs) in Mexico  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A. The Drug Supply Chain: Forecasting, Price Negotiation and18 CHAPTER IV: ARV FORECASTING, PRICE NEGOTIATION ANDcurrent and expected) forecasting, price negotiation and

Adesina, Adebiyi Ola-Oluwa

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

well below unity accounts for the broad trends we see in the share of oil purchases in totalWells. Middle panel: percent of U.S. total crude oil

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to a negative storage cost for oil in the form of a bene?tin levels. oil for more than your costs, that is, if P t+1 QSaudi oil, and M S the Saudis marginal cost of production.

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Distillate and Spot Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: This slide shows the strong influence crude oil prices have on retail distillate prices. The price for distillate fuel oil tracks the crude price increases seen in 1996 and the subsequent fall in 1997 and 1998. Distillate prices have also followed crude oil prices up since the beginning of 1999. Actual data show heating oil prices on the East Coast in June at $1.20 per gallon, up 39 cents over last June. However, if heating oil prices are following diesel, they may be up another 5 cents in August. That would put heating oil prices about 40 cents over last August prices. Crude oil prices are only up about 25 cents in August over year ago levels. The extra 15 cents represents improved refiner margins due in part to the very low distillate inventory level.

119

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1991. A Comparison of Petroleum Futures versus Spot PricesFutures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oiland Its Impact on U.S. Petroleum Markets. Dahl, Carol and

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

disruptions, and the peak in U.S. oil production account foroil increased 81.1% (logarithmically) between January 1979 and the peak

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

California Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... of different quality crudes vary over time based on the value the market places on such quality attributes. A heavy crude oil has more heavy, ...

122

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Oil Price Decline Started a Year Ago  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

are generally the product of several influences. Because gasoline is refined from crude oil, of course, the price of crude is the single biggest determinant of gasoline prices....

124

EIA projects record winter household heating oil prices in the ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home; Browse by Tag; Most Popular Tags. electricity; oil/petroleum; liquid fuels; natural gas; prices; states; ... Heating oil prices largely reflect crude oil prices.

125

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the forecast. In 1978 the Natural Gas Policy Act was passedof Other Natural Gas Price Forecasts Researchers and policyresearchers and policy makers who utilize natural gas prices

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Uncertainty Representation: Estimating Process Parameters for Forward Price Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Market prices set the value of electric power assets and contracts, yet forward prices are unavailable for time horizons relevant to most valuations. Price forecasts are inherently uncertain because the drivers of prices are uncertain, but equilibrating market forces also work to reduce the growth of uncertainty over time. Consequently, quantifying the degree of future price uncertainty is difficult, but has tremendous strategic potential for power companies seeking to value real options and invest in fl...

1999-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

127

WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Expected To Remain Relatively High Through At  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: As we just saw, one of the primary factors impacting gasoline price is the crude oil price. This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $36 per barrel in November briefly as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. Crude oil prices are expected to be about $30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. With the EIA forecast for crude prices staying high this year,

128

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we ...

129

First Factor Impacting Distillate Prices: Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Notes: World oil prices have tripled from their low point in December 1998 to August this year, pulling product prices up as well. But crude prices are expected to show a gradual decline as increased oil production from OPEC and others enters the world oil market. We won't likely see much decline this year, however, as prices are expected to end the year at about $30 per barrel. The average price of WTI was almost $30 per barrel in March, but dropped to $26 in April as the market responded to the additional OPEC production. However, prices strengthened again, averaging almost $32 in June, $30 in July, and $31 in August. The continued increases in crude oil prices indicate buyers are having trouble finding crude oil, bidding higher prices to obtain the barrels available.

130

Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

crude oil price (represented by the average price paid by U.S. refiners for foreign crude oil) in 2000 is estimated by EIA at 27.86 per barrel. By comparison, the peak annual...

131

Distillate Prices Increasing With Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 Notes: This slide shows the strong influence crude oil prices have on retail distillate prices. Distillate tracks the crude price increases seen in 1996 and the subsequent fall...

132

Oil Price and the Dollar Virginie Coudert  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil Price and the Dollar Virginie Coudert , Val´erie Mignon , Alexis Penot§ 6th April 2005 Abstract The aim of this paper is to test whether a stable long-term relationship exists between oil prices and causality study between the two variables. Our results indicate that causality runs from oil prices

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

133

OIL PRICES AND LONG-RUN RISK  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987- 2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped

Robert Ready; Robert Clayton Ready; Robert Clayton Ready; Amir Yaron

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Cost forecasts: Euyropean International High-Energy Physics facilities - Million Swiss Francs at 1966 prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Cost forecasts: Euyropean International High-Energy Physics facilities - Million Swiss Francs at 1966 prices

ECFA meeting

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

against the risk of energy price fluctuations. In theory,The poor track record of energy price forecasting models hasof information about future energy prices, including most

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

New York Home Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 of 15 5 of 15 Notes: The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a little slower and spread out over time compared to spot prices. Wholesale prices increased over 50 cents from January 17 to January 24, while retail increased 44 cents in New York. Diesel prices are showing a similar pattern to residential home heating oil prices, and are indicating that home heating oil prices may not have peaked yet, although spot prices are dropping. Diesel prices in New England and the Mid-Atlantic increased 30-40 cents January 24 over the prior week, and another 13-15 cents January 31. Spot prices plummeted January 31, closing at 82 cents per gallon, indicating the worst part of the crisis may be over, but it is still a

137

U.S. Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter’s market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices for the last four winters, with this year’s prices shown through January 24, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Although heating oil prices for consumers started this winter at similar levels to those in 1997, they already rose nearly 20 cents per gallon through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude

138

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: With the worst of the heating season (October-March) now behind us, we can be fairly confident that retail heating oil prices have seen their seasonal peak. Relatively mild weather and a softening of crude oil prices have helped ease heating oil prices. Spot heating oil prices recently reached their lowest levels in over six months. Because of relatively balmy weather in the Northeast in January and February, heating oil stock levels have stabilized. Furthermore, heating oil production has been unusually robust, running several hundred thousand barrels per day over last year's pace. Currently, EIA expects winter prices to average around $1.41, which is quite high in historical terms. The national average price in December 2000 was 44 cents per gallon above the December 1999 price. For February

139

The effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The traditional view of oil price movements is that they represent exogenous changes in the supply of oil. In that case, oil price increases will (more)

Embergenov, Bakhitbay

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook. Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast . Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: Retail distillate prices follow the spot distillate markets, and crude oil prices have been the main driver behind distillate spot price increases until recently. Crude oil rose about 36 cents per gallon from its low point in mid February 1999 to the middle of January 2000. Over this same time period, New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents per gallon, reflecting both the crude price rise and a return to a more usual seasonal spread over the price of crude oil. The week ending January 21, heating oil spot prices in the Northeast spiked dramatically to record levels, closing on Friday at $1.26 per gallon -- up 50 cents from the prior week. Gulf Coast prices were not spiking, but were probably pulled slightly higher as the New York Harbor market began to

142

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we now expect prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to peak at $1.52 per gallon in January. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. This winter's expected peak price would be the highest on record in nominal terms, eclipsing the high set in February 2000. However, in real (constant dollar) terms, both of these prices remain well below the peak reached in March 1981, when the average residential heating oil price was $1.29 per gallon, equivalent to over $2.50 per gallon today.

143

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

September 2000Forecasting Future Variance from Option Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Although it is widely believed that option prices provide the best possible forecasts of the future variance of the assets which underlie them, a large body of empirical evidence concludes that option prices consistently yield biased forecasts of future variance. The prevailing interpretation of these findings is that option investors may be forming unbiased forecasts of the future variance of underlying assets but that these unbiased forecasts fail to get impounded into option prices because of either (1) the difficulty of carrying out the necessary arbitrage strategies that would force the prices to their proper levels, or (2) the availability to market makers of lucrative alternative strategies in which they simply profit from the large bid-ask spreads in the options markets. This interpretation has significant consequences for nearly the entire range of option pricing research, since it implies that non-continuous trading, bid-ask spreads, and other market imperfections substantially influence option prices. This implication is important, both because incorporating these types of market imperfections into option pricing models is much more difficult than, for example, altering the dynamics of the underlying asset and also because it suggests that researchers cannot learn about option investor expectations by filtering option

Allen M. Poteshman; Mark R. Manfredo; Allen M. Poteshman; Allen M. Poteshman; Champaign Helpful; Jegadeesh Narasimhan

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly February 2012 42 Table 18. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Continued

146

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

With the worst of the heating season (October-March) now behind us, we can be fairly confident that retail heating oil prices have seen their seasonal ...

147

Forecasting of mine price for central Appalachian steam coal  

SciTech Connect

In reaction to Virginia's declining share of the steam coal market and the subsequent depression in southwest Virginia's economy, an optimization model of the central Appalachian steam coal market was developed. The input to the cost vector was the delivered cost of coal, which is comprised of the mine price (FOB) and transportation cost. One objective of the study was to develop a purchasing model that could be used to minimize the cost of coal procurement over a multi-period time span. The initial case study used a six-month period (7/86-12/86); this requires short-term, forecasts of the mine price of coal. Mine-cost equations and regression models were found to be inadequate for forecasting the mine price of coal. Instead forecasts were generated using modified time series models. This paper describes the application of classical time-series modeling to forecasting the mine price of coal in central Appalachia; in particular, the special modification to the classical methodology needed to generate short-term forecasts and their confidence limits and the need to take into account market-specific considerations such as the split between long-term contracts and the spot market. Special consideration is given to forecasting the spot market. 7 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.

Smith, M.L.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Oil prices in a new light  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factual figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.

Fesharaki, F. (East-West Center, Honolulu, HI (United States))

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Summary Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate price bands around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to trade. The Energy Information Administrations (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publishes base case projections for a variety of energy prices that go out 12 to 24 months (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year). EIA has recognized that all price forecasts are highly uncertain and has described the uncertainty by identifying the market factors that may significantly move prices away from their expected paths, such as economic growth, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, geo-political events, and hurricanes.

unknown authors

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

151

The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

case and a high and low oil price case. These forecasts areNatural Gas Imports World Oil Prices Natural Gas Wellheadgas imports, world oil price, coal prices to electric

Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S. [La Trobe Univ., Melbourne (Australia). Applied Computing Research Inst.

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time frame. Time series data from the Midwest ISO (MISO) are used as a test system to validate the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to generate price scenarios for distinct seasons with empirically realistic characteristics.

Qun Zhou; Leigh Tesfatsion; Chen-Ching Liu

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we now expect prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to peak at about $1.52 per gallon in January. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. This winter's expected peak price would be the highest on record in nominal terms, eclipsing the high set in February 2000. However, in real (constant dollar) terms, both of these prices remain well below the peak reached in March 1981, when the average residential heating oil price was $1.29 per gallon, equivalent to over $2.50 per gallon today.

155

Crude Oil Prices Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

156

High heating oil prices discourage heating oil supply contracts ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA's Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook expects the U.S. home heating oil price will average $3.71 per gallon for the season, ...

157

OIL PRICES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract Oil prices, associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years, have been rising in recent months. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a rise in oil prices depend upon the policy response of the monetary authorities. They can ameliorate the short term impacts on output, but only at the cost of higher inflation. In the short term the size and distribution of output effects from an increase in oil prices depends on the intensity of oil use in production and on the speed at which oil producers spend their revenue. In the medium term higher oil prices change the terms of trade between the OECD and the rest of the world and hence reduce the equilibrium level of output in the OECD. In this paper we first discuss oil market developments and survey previous studies on the impacts of increases in oil prices. We then use our model, NiGEM, to evaluate the impact of temporary and permanent oil price increases on the world economy under various policy responses, and also analyse the impact of a decline in the speed of oil revenue recycling. 1 This paper has benefited from inputs from a number of colleagues at the Institute, and we would like to thank

Ray Barrell; Olga Pomerantz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? The cost of crude oil is a major component in the price of diesel fuel, gasoline, and heating oil.

159

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? - FAQ ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? The cost of crude oil is a major component in the price of diesel fuel, gasoline, and heating oil.

160

Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Monitoring  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What drives crude oil prices? What drives crude oil prices? November 13, 2013 | Washington, DC An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events November 13, 2013 2 price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average) Low spare capacity Iraq invades Kuwait Saudis abandon swing producer role Iran-Iraq War Iranian revolution Arab Oil Embargo Asian financial crisis U.S. spare capacity exhausted Global financial collapse 9-11 attacks OPEC cuts targets 1.7 mmbpd OPEC cuts targets 4.2 mmbpd Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Secretary of Energy Samuel W....

162

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

New York Home Heating Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a ...

164

What's Driving Oil Prices? James L. Smith  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

$60 $80 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Real Price ($2005) #12;2 Hubbert's Curve (Peak Oil) PEAK OIL QUIZ Instructions: With books closed and eyes on your own paper, please mark the single best answer. 1. Peak oil production indicates: a) Half gone. b) Running out. c) Starting out. d) None

O'Donnell, Tom

165

An artificial neural network approach for day-ahead electricity prices forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper is about the use of artificial neural networks on day-ahead electricity prices forecasting. In nowadays competitive electricity markets, good forecasting tools hedging against daily price volatility are becoming increasingly important. The ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electricity markets, prices forecasting

Joo Catalo; Slvio Mariano; Victor Mendes; Lus Ferreira

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting by a new hybrid method  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electricity price forecasting has become necessary for power producers and consumers in the current deregulated electricity markets. Seeking for more accurate price forecasting techniques, this paper proposes a new hybrid method based on wavelet transform ... Keywords: ARIMA, Electricity price forecasting, LSSVM, PSO, WT

Jinliang Zhang; Zhongfu Tan; Shuxia Yang

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

168

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

169

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

170

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

171

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

172

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

173

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

of the first signals in deciphering what is happening in the market. This chart shows propane prices (both spot and retail) as well as WTI. As you can see, most prices track the...

174

A new era for oil prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Since 2003 the international oil market has been moving away from the previous 20-year equilibrium in which prices fluctuated around $25/bbl (in today's dollars). The single most important reason is that growing demand has ...

Mitchell, John V.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Summary Statistics Table 1. Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

can be the month of loading, the month of landing, or sometime between those events. Prices for crude oil can be determined at a time other than the acquisition date. See the...

176

Microsoft Word - high-oil-price.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short Term Energy Outlook Short Term Energy Outlook 1 STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged close to $20 per barrel, before plunging to almost $10 per barrel in late 1998 as a result of the Asian financial crisis slowing demand growth while extra supply from Iraq was entering the market for the first time since the Gulf War. Subsequently, as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers more closely adhered to a coordinated production quota and reduced output, crude oil prices not only recovered, but increased to about $30 per barrel as demand grew as Asian economies recovered. The most recent increase in crude oil prices began in 2004, when they almost doubled from 2003 levels, rising from about $30 per barrel at the end

177

What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? working paper  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Based on a two-country, multi-period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil, we show that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are accurate predictors of the spot price in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) sense; yet under certain conditions there is support for the view that oil futures prices are unbiased predictors. Our empirical analysis documents that futures-based forecasts typically are less accurate than the no-change forecast and biased, although the bias is small. Much of the MSPE is driven by the variability of the futures price about the expected spot price, as captured by the basis. Empirically, the fluctuations in the oil futures basis are larger and more persistent than fluctuations in the basis of foreign exchange futures. Within the context of our theoretical model, this anomaly can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories. We show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the basis to decline and precautionary demand for crude oil to increase, resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price that is not necessarily associated with an accumulation of oil inventories. Our main result is that the negative of the basis may be viewed as an index of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand for oil. An empirical analysis of this index provides independent evidence of how shifts in market expectations about future oil supply shortfalls affect the spot price of crude oil. Such expectation shifts have been difficult to quantify, yet have been shown to play an important role in explaining oil price fluctuations. Our empirical results are consistent with related evidence in the literature obtained by alternative methodologies.

Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

Ramberg, David J.

179

Crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products prices all fell ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

So oil prices averaged over the year decreased sharply while year-end price ... Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1972-2009

180

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

index.html. Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for FuturesError STEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futuresof forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Oil price, mean reversion and zone readjustments  

SciTech Connect

Observing OPEC`s short-term price-output ceiling behavior during the late 1980s and 1990s, one can conclude that it attempts to stabilize the market price within a range of its announced target price by controlling the output ceiling. If the price moves within four to five dollars below the target price, it usually reduces the output ceiling and assigns new quotas to its member countries to keep the price close to the target price. In reality, OPEC established a band for the market price positioned round the target price by basically choosing suitable upper and lower limits for the output or, at least in soft markets, it places tolerance zone below the target price in order to restrict the discrepancy between the market price and the target price. The lower limit is particularly needed because it sets a price floor and ensures that the market price stays above the significantly lower marginal cost of oil production. If the limits of these zones are backed by a perfectly credible intervention policy, they can generate an expectations process that should turn the market prices around even before any intervention takes place. While OPEC in some sense observes the target zones for its prices, those zones are neither well defined nor vigorously defended. It can not always or may not be willing to maintain the price within the limits of the desired zone by cutting the output ceiling; it must sometimes readjust the target price and output ceiling, and thus create a new target zone to reflect the market`s new fundamentals. This is particularly true now because OPEC is losing market share to the other oil producers and is contemplating to shift the current band. Actual readjustments in the target price can be so large, as in 1980 and 1985, that the newmarket price must jump as well. They can occur when both the market price is near the limits of the band as well as when it is inside the band but still further away from those limits.

Hammoudeh, S. [Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States)

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

The Market Price of Risk: Implications for Electricity Price Forecasting, Asset Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forward Price Forecasting for Power Market Valuation (TR-111860, 1998) presented the basic theory on the market price of risk. However, continued development of the power market has led to additional complexities when applying the concept to electric power. This current report updates that earlier report based on subsequent development of the theory by EPRI and others and reflects two additional years of market data.

2000-12-07T23:59:59.000Z

183

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

mid-January, 2000. WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per mid-January, 2000. WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from its low point in mid February 1999 to January 17, 2000. Over this same time period, New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents per gallon, reflecting both the crude price rise and the beginning of a return to a more usual seasonal spread over the price of crude oil. The week ending January 21, distillate spot prices in the Northeast spiked dramatically to record levels, closing on Friday at $1.26 per gallon -- up 50 cents from the prior week. Gulf Coast prices were not spiking, but were probably pulled higher as the New York Harbor market began to draw on product from other areas. They closed at 83 cents per gallon, an increase of 11 cents from the prior Friday. Crude oil had risen about 4 cents from

184

Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange Dimitrios Gounopoulos* University of Surrey, U.K. This study examines the earnings forecast accuracy earnings forecast and pricing ofIPOs. It uses a unique data set of 208 IPOs, which were floated during

Jensen, Max

185

A new feature selection algorithm and composite neural network for electricity price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a competitive electricity market, the forecasting of energy prices is an important activity for all the market participants either for developing bidding strategies or for making investment decisions. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed ... Keywords: Composite neural network, Price forecast, Two stage feature selection technique

Farshid Keynia

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Residential heating oil prices increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

last week to 3.92 per gallon. That's down 11 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for...

187

Residential heating oil prices increase  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

last week to 3.96 per gallon. That's down 2.6 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for...

188

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

189

Sensitivity analysis of world oil prices. Analysis report AR/IA/79-47  

SciTech Connect

An analysis of the impact of the political disruption in Iran on the world oil market is presented. During the first quarter of 1979, this disruption caused a loss of approximately 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of oil production available for export from Iran to the rest of the world. This loss of production and the political climate in Iran have caused much speculation concerning future Iranian oil production and total Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production in the nearterm and midterm. The analysis describes these issues in terms of two critical factors: the world oil price and the level of OPEC oil production in the nearterm and midterm. A detailed comparison of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasting models of world oil prices is presented. This comparison consists of examining reasons for differences in the price forecasts of the CIA model by using CIA assumptions within the EIA model. The CIA and EIA model structures and major parameters are also compared. It is important to note that this analysis is not all encompassing. In particular, the analysis does not provide data on crude oil prices in the spot market, but does provide information on the average crude oil price; and does not permit rationing of oil, since the market is forced to clear only through changes in oil prices. Throughout this paper, world oil prices are defined in terms of real 1978 dollars per barrel of crude oil delivered to the East Coast of the United States net of any import fees.

Rodekohr, M.; Cato, D.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

OPEC Production Changes Impacted World Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

OPEC has been a major factor behind the recent swing in crude oil prices. As prices fell in 1997 and 1998, OPEC gradually removed supply from the market.

191

Increases in oil prices affect broader measures of inflation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Over the past ten years, the Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U) ... oil price increases boost freight transportation costsfor example, ...

192

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we have raised expected peak prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to $1.55 per gallon (January) compared to $1.43 per gallon in last month's projections. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. Primary distillate inventories in the United States failed to rise significantly in November despite some speculation that previous distributions into secondary and tertiary storage would back up burgeoning production and import volumes into primary storage that month. Average

193

The Incremental Benefits of the Nearest Neighbor Forecast of U.S. Energy Commodity Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil. The data for the commodities are monthly and, for each commodity, two-thirds of the data are used for an in-sample forecast, and the remaining one-third of the data are used to perform an out-of-sample forecast. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) are used to compare the two forecasts. The results showed that one method is superior by one measure but inferior by another. Although the differences of the two models are minimal, it is up to a decision maker as to which model to choose. The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test was performed to test the relative accuracy of the models. For all five commodities, the results failed to reject the null hypothesis indicating that both models are equally accurate.

Kudoyan, Olga

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

recently. Crude oil rose about 17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of the latest "up cycle" in mid February 1999 to mid-January, 2000. Over this same time...

195

Residential heating oil prices increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

ago to 3.98 per gallon. That's up 6-tenths of a penny from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil...

196

Restaurant Industry Stock Price Forecasting Model Utilizing Artificial Neural Networks to Combine Fundamental and Technical Analysis.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Stock price forecasting is a classic problem facing analysts. Forcasting models have been developed for predicting individual stocks and stock indices around the world and (more)

Dravenstott, Ronald W.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Ohio Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Wholesale Heating Oil : Residential ... Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from ... 3/20/2013: Next ...

198

The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 2 Introduction Economic theory suggests that natural gas and crude oil prices should be related ...

199

Increases in oil prices affect broader measures of inflation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

While a barrel of light sweet crude oil may never make it onto the shopping list of the typical U.S. consumer, the effects of world oil price hikes on consumer prices ...

200

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #579: July 13, 2009 Oil Price...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

9: July 13, 2009 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2008 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact 579: July 13, 2009 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2008...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Why Are Oil Prices So High? - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why Are Oil Prices So High? 1 Crude oil prices have increased dramatically in recent ... will be about 10 million barrels below the 5 ?year average by the end of this

202

Electricity Market Price Forecasting: Neural Networks versus Weighted-Distance Nearest Neighbours  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In today's deregulated markets, forecasting energy prices is becoming more and more important. In the short term, expected price pro les help market participants to determine their bidding strategies.

A. Troncoso; J.M. Riquelme; Alicia Troncoso Lora; J.L. Martnez; A. Gmez; Jose Riquelme Santos; Jesus Riquelme Santos

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

N E 2 011 by Marco J. Lombardi and Ine Van Robays DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 13 4 6 J U N E 2011 DO FINANCIAL...

204

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

205

The Stock Market Reaction to Oil Price Changes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I explore the reaction of the stock market as a whole and of different industries to daily oil price changes. I find that the direction and magnitude of the market?s reaction to oil price changes depend on the magnitude of the price changes. Oil price changes most likely caused by supply shocks have a negative impact while oil price changes most likely caused by shifts in aggregate demand have a positive impact on the same day market returns. In addition to the returns of oil-intensive industries, returns of industries that do not use oil to any significant extent are also sensitive to oil price changes. Finally, I show that both the cost-side dependence and demand-side dependence on oil are important in explaining the sensitivity of industry returns to oil price changes. I am indebted to Louis Ederington. I am grateful for the helpful comments received from Chitru Fernando,

Sridhar Gogineni

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration / Petroleum Marketing Annual 1996 45. Created Date:

207

World Oil Price, 1970-2020  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

World Oil Price, 1970-2020 World Oil Price, 1970-2020 (1999 dollars per barrel) 17.09 50- 45 - 40 - I Nominal dollars 35- 1995 _2020 15 - J 9, AE02000 5- 10 - HHistory Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 35AS0570 ^a .i^ Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 30- History Projections 25 - 20 - 20~ Consumption _ Net imports 15 - Domestic supply . _ 5- 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 '-'e^~~~ u,~~ ~35AS0570 ., te Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 20- History Projections 15- XTransportation 10 Industrial Eect i city gener - 5- 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 .n 35AS0570 r-N Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 8 History Projections 6- Lower 48 conventional 4- Lower 48 offshore 2- lasa k r 0 § ^.^^^r"_ "^^"' ^Lower 48 EOR

208

Oil prices and government bond risk premiums Herv Alexandre*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices and government bond risk premiums By Hervé Alexandre*º Antonin de Benoist * Abstract : This article analyses the impact of oil price on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oil price on government bond risk premiums. We develop

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

209

Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2012. This is because high natural gas prices result in a shift to wind and coal generation. Figure 2 the Aurora forecast was based on medium trend natural gas prices and average water conditions. The spike in electric prices during the fall and winter of 2005 are due to high natural gas prices following hurricanes

210

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

211

Bakken oil production forecast to top 1 million barrels per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home; Browse by Tag; Most Popular Tags. electricity; oil/petroleum; liquid fuels; natural gas; prices; ... Privacy/Security Copyright & Reuse Accessibility ...

212

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

213

Forecasting next-day price of electricity in the Spanish energy market using artificial neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, next-day hourly forecasts are calculated for the energy price in the electricity production market of Spain. The methodology used to achieve these forecasts is based on artificial neural networks, which have been used successfully in recent ... Keywords: ART network, Backpropagation network, Box-Jenkins, Electricity market, Neural networks, Time series forecasting

Ral Pino; Jos Parreno; Alberto Gomez; Paolo Priore

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

215

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007-Low World Oil Price Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections (1990-2030) Low World Oil Price Case Projections (1990-2030) International Energy Outlook 2007 Low World Oil Price Projections Tables (1990-2030) Formats Table Data Titles (1 to 12 complete) Low World Oil Price Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Low World Oil Price Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table E1 World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case Table E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table E2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

216

From: Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Berkeley Lab (LBNL) Subject: Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices Date: January 4, 2010 1. Introduction, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better

217

Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R. Jordan, and Michael P. Wellman  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R, to forecast market prices in the Trading Agent Com- petition Supply Chain Management Game. As a guiding, Experimentation, Measurement Keywords Forecasting, Markets, Price prediction, Trading agent competition, Supply

Wellman, Michael P.

218

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

219

EIA forecasts increased oil demand, need for additional supply ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

World oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) ... Cooling demand in the Middle East is expected to rise to record levels this summer.

220

Role of speculation in short-term US oil crude prices and gasoline price variability of the 2000s and the role of monetary policy price stability interventions.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? The objectives of this study were to analyze the short-run impact of futures contract prices on crude oil prices, the impact of crude oil (more)

Norris, Leah C.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

), the simulation day, and the linear trend of selling prices from the previous ten days. For predicting future prices, we used the same set of features with the addition of the estimated customer demand trend (s). 4Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b

Wellman, Michael P.

222

World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Information Center

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Import policy effects on the optimal oil price  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A steady increase in oil imports leaves oil importing countries increasingly vulnerable tofuture oil price shocks. Using a variation of the U.S. EIA`s oil market simulation model, equilibria displaying multiple price shocks is derived endogenously as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of OPEC. Here we investigate the effects that an oil import tariff and a petroleum stock release policy may have on an OPEC optimal price path. It is shown that while both policies can reduce the magnitude of future price shocks neither may be politically or technically feasible. 21 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

Suranovic, S.M. [George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

224

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, as director of the National Economic Council, stated that "if energy prices will trend higher, you invest one, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend, they ...nd way; if energy prices will be lower, you invest a di¤erent way. But if you don't know what prices

Garousi, Vahid

225

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes 7 key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

2011-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

226

Long-run models of oil stock prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The identification of the forces that drive oil stock prices is extremely important given the size of the Oil & Gas industry and its links with the energy sector and the environment. In the next decade oil companies will have to deal with international ... Keywords: C32, Cointegration, Energy, Environment, Hydrocarbon fuels, L71, Non-renewable resources, Oil companies, Oil stock prices, Q30, Q40, Vector error correction models

Alessandro Lanza; Matteo Manera; Margherita Grasso; Massimo Giovannini

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winters market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through ...

228

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices are one of the first signals in deciphering what is happening in the market. This chart shows propane prices (both spot and retail) as well as spot heating oil ...

229

The effects of oil prices and other economic indicators on housing prices in Calgary, Canada  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis aims to answer: (1) to what extent can oil prices and other economic indicators predict the changes in housing prices and rent in the Calgary single family housing market and (2) to determine what the lag time ...

Padilla, Mercedes A. (Mercedes Angeles)

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Kansas Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 11/1/2013: Next Release Date: 12/2/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

232

Wyoming Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

96.51: 97.39-= No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

233

North Dakota Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 1/2/2014: Next Release Date: 2/3/2014: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

234

2012 Brief: Coal and mid-continent crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal and mid-continent crude oil (WTI) led energy commodity price declines in 2012. Natural gas was the only key energy commodity with a significant ...

235

Texas Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

236

Price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil narrowing - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The Brent-WTI spread, the difference between the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oils, has narrowed considerably over the past several months.

237

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

5 U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly October 2013 Table 1. Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Year Month Domestic

238

STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high?  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short Term Energy Outlook 1 STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI ...

239

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Note: Confidence intervals for the ...

240

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Overview. As part of its Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, EIA is assessing the various factors that may influence oil prices physical market factors as ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

5 U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly February 2012 Table 1. Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Year Month Domestic

242

CRUDE OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This study uses ordinary least squares estimation to test multivariate models in order to find out whether or not crude oil price shocks are contractionary (more)

Hernandez, Jordan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000. Projections

244

Colorado Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

245

Minnesota Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

246

North Carolina Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

247

Virginia Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

248

Massachusetts Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

249

Wisconsin Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

250

Michigan Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

251

New Mexico Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 11/1/2013: Next Release Date: 12/2/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

252

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? - FAQ ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices are determined by demand and supply in our market economy. Fuel demand is affected mainly by economic conditions, and for heating oil, the weather.

253

Energy Prices Note 4. Crude Oil Landed Costs.  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Prices Note 1. Crude Oil Refinery Acquisition Costs. Begin-ning with January 1981, refiner acquisition costs of crude oil are from data collected on U.S ...

254

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from its low point in mid ... New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents ...

255

Connecticut Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... History; Residential Heating Oil: 3.967: 3.925: 3.945: 3.943: 3.943 ...

256

Maine Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... History; Residential Heating Oil: 3.569: 3.575: 3.559: 3.561: 3.559 ...

257

Perspective on Real Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

depicted as the average price refiners pay for imported oil, in inflation-adjusted terms. Since US refiners buy crude oil from so many different countries, This is a good...

258

Weather Swap Pricing and the Optimal Size for Medium-Range Forecast Ensembles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather swap pricing involves predicting the mean temperature for the current month with the highest possible accuracy. The more days of skillful forecasts that are available, the better the monthly mean can be predicted. The ensemble mean of a ...

Stephen Jewson; Christine Ziehmann

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

WO WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 1 3 4 6 / J U N E 2 011 by Marco J. Lombardi and Ine Van Robays DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 13 4 6 / J U N E 2011 DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? 1 by Marco J. Lombardi 2 and Ine Van Robays 3 1 This paper was initiated when the second author was with the European Central Bank. Without implicating, we would like to thank Bahattin Büyüksahin, Gert Peersman, Jaap Bos, Julio Carrillo, Lutz Kilian, Punnoose Jacob, Sandra Eickmeier and an anonymous referee for their useful comments and suggestions. 2 Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Mai, Germany; e-mail: marco.lombardi@ecb.europa.eu 3 Department of Financial Economics, Ghent University, Woodrow Wilsonplein 5D, B-9000 Gent,

260

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

SciTech Connect

This chapter presents BPA's market price forecasts, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's rates. AURORA is used as the primary tool for (a) calculation of the demand rate, (b) shaping the PF rate, (c) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years 2008 and 2009, (d) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments, (e) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (f) providing a price input used for the risk analysis.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Oil resources: the key to prosperity or to poverty? : Influence of oil price shocks on spending of oil revenues.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Abundant natural resources, in particular oil, play an important role in the economics of many countries. The oil price shocks that have been happening continuously (more)

Selivanova, Olga

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers, Asymmetries and Hedging in Major Oil Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets.

Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer; Roengchai Tansuchat; Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

265

Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Recent empirical studies reveal that the oil price-output relationship is weakening in the US. After mid 1980s, observed oil price-output correlation is less negative, and output reduction in response to oil price rise is more moderate than before. To see the reason, we develop a DSGE model where oil price and US output are endogenously determined by the exogenous movements of US TFP and the oil supply. Maintaining model specication the same for pre-mid-80s and post-mid-80s, the model replicates the actual paths of oil price and output well, and yields the weakening eect of oil price. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that emphasis on the changes in the economic structures, we found that what brings the weakening in the oil price-output relationship are the two changes associated with the way the exogenous variables evolved over the periods. First, oil supply variation has become moderate in recent years. Second, oil supply shortage is no longer followed by a large decline in TFP. We show that less volatile oil supply variation results in less negative oil price-output correlations, and a smaller TFP decline during oil supply shortfall implies a smaller output decline during oil price increases.

Naohisa Hirakata; Nao Sudo Y; Anton Braun; Jordi Gal; Simon Gilchrist; Francois Gourio

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

267

Multi-fractal Analysis of World Crude Oil Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to reveal the stylized facts of world crude oil prices, R/S (Rescaled Range Analysis) method is introduced in this paper. For illustration, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent daily crude oil prices are used in this paper. The calculated ...

Xiucheng Dong; Junchen Li; Jian Gao

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Retail Product Prices Are Driven By Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Retail prices for both gasoline and diesel fuel have risen strongly over the past two years, driven mostly by the rise in world crude oil prices to their highest levels since the Persian Gulf War. Of course, there are a number of other significant factors that impact retail product prices, the most important of which is the supply/demand balance for each product. But the point of this slide is to show that generally speaking, as world crude oil prices rise and fall, so do retail product prices. Because of the critical importance of crude oil price levels, my presentation today will look first at global oil supply and demand, and then at the factors that differentiate the markets for each product. I'll also talk briefly about natural gas, and the impact that gas

269

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S. , iswith a dollar denominated oil price. References Blanchard

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

with, in September 2000, crude oil prices in the Unitedmonth forward price of crude oil peaked at $37.80. EnergyThe monthly U.S. imported crude oil price in November was a

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S. , isa dollar denominated oil price. References Blanchard O.J.

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040 ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel) Reference High Oil Price Low Oil Price

273

Support vector regression with chaos-based firefly algorithm for stock market price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Due to the inherent non-linearity and non-stationary characteristics of financial stock market price time series, conventional modeling techniques such as the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) are not adequate for stock market ... Keywords: Chaotic mapping, Firefly algorithm, Stock market price forecasting, Support vector regression

Ahmad Kazem; Ebrahim Sharifi; Farookh Khadeer Hussain; Morteza Saberi; Omar Khadeer Hussain

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - High World Oil Price Case  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) International Energy Outlook 2007 High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) Formats Data Table Titles (1 to 12 complete) High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. High World Oil Price Case Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table D1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region Table D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table D2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel Table D2. World total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

275

Application of a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary system for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Hybrid neuro-evolutionary system, Neural network, Price forecast

Nima Amjady; Farshid Keynia

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Fractality feature in oil price fluctuations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within a non-stationary process formulation. It is shown that, when returns are measured over intervals less than 10 days, the Probability Density Functions (PDFs) exhibit self-similarity and monoscaling, in contrast to the multifractal behavior of the PDFs at macro-scales (typically larger than one month). We find that the time evolution of the distributions are well fitted by a Levy distribution law at micro-scales. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer

Momeni, M; Talebi, K

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Propane Prices Influenced by Crude Oil and Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Propane prices have been high this year for several reasons. Propane usually follows crude oil prices more closely than natural gas prices. As crude oil prices rose beginning in 1999, propane has followed. In addition, some early cold weather this year put extra pressure on prices. However, more recently, the highly unusual surge in natural gas prices affected propane supply and drove propane prices up. Propane comes from two sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants. The very high natural gas prices made it more economic for refineries to use the propane they normally produce and sell than to buy natural gas. The gas processing plants found it more economic to leave propane in the natural gas streams than to extract it for sale separately.

278

Gas importers still resisting price parity with crude oil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The pricing of natural gas on a parity with crude oil has become an important issue in the international energy market. A prime example of the hostility that can arise over this issue is the ongoing argument between the US and Algeria over the price of SONATRACH's LNG exports to El Paso Co. Because LNG shipping and regasification costs add substantially to its delivered (c.i.f.) cost, price parity at the point of export (f.o.b.) would put LNG's price far above that of crude oil or natural gas. Other LNG exporters, such as Indonesia and Libya, seem to be adopting Algeria's pricing stance. Most European LNG customers believe that if f.o.b. price parity - or even some of the c.i.f. price-calculation methods - becomes the established formula, LNG will be priced out of many industrial markets. Without the big contracts from industry, existing LNG projects might not be economical.

Vielvoye, R.

1981-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

279

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the historynatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

AEO Issues in Focus: Effects of different oil price paths - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The economics of unconventional liquids supply ... The Low Oil Price case assumes that world oil prices fall steadily after 2011 to about $50 per barrel in ...

282

Factors that affect the share price index of Taiwan's solar energy industrythe crude oil prices and industry scale.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This paper discusses the factors that affect the share price index of Taiwan solar power industry, crude oil prices and the size of the solar (more)

Deng, Yu-chi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

New York Home Heating Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a ...

284

How regulators should use natural gas price forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Natural gas prices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Natural gas prices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High natural gas prices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make natural gas generation the most economical. (author)

Costello, Ken

2010-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

285

Specification, estimation, and forecasts of industrial demand and price of electricity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper discusses the specification of electricity-demand and price equations for manufacturing industries and presents empirical results based on the data for 16 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) three-digit industries from 1959 to 1976. Performances of estimated equations are evaluated by sample-period simulation tests. The estimated coefficients are then used to forecast electricity demand by industry. Results show that most of the estimated coefficients have expected signs and are statistically significant. The estimated equations perform well in terms of sample-period simulation tests, registering small mean absolute percentage errors and mean square percentage errors for most of the industries studied. Forecasted results indicate that total electricity demand by manufacturing industries would grow at an average annual rate of 3.53% according to the baseline forecast, 2.39% in the high-price scenario, and 4.76% in the low-price scenario. The forecasted growth rates vary substantially among industries. The results also indicate that the price of electricity would continue to grow at a faster rate than the general price level in the forecasted period 1977 to 1990. 19 references, 6 tables.

Chang, H.S. (Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville); Chern, W.S.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Essays on Forecasting and Hedging Models in the Oil Market and Causality Analysis in the Korean Stock Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this dissertation, three related issues concerning empirical time series models for energy financial markets and the stock market were investigated. The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze the interdependence of price movements, focusing on the forecasting models for crude oil prices and the hedging models for gasoline prices, and to study the change in the contemporaneous causal relationship between investors' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market. In the first essay, the nature of forecasting crude oil prices based on financial data for the oil and oil product market is examined. As crack spread and oil-related Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have enabled more consumers and investors to gain access to the crude oil and petroleum products markets, I investigated whether crack spread and oil ETFs were good predictors of oil prices and attempted to determine whether crack spread or oil ETFs were better at explaining oil price movements. In the second essay, the effectiveness of diverse hedging models for the unleaded gasoline price is examined using futures and ETFs. I calculated the optimal hedge ratios for gasoline futures and gasoline ETF utilizing several advanced econometric models and then compared their hedging performances. In the third essay, the contemporaneous causal relationship between multiple players' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market was investigated using the framework of a DAG model. The causal impacts of three players' activities in regard to stock return and stock price volatility are examined, concentrating on foreign investor activities. Within this framework, two Korean stock markets, the KSE and KOSDAQ markets, are analyzed and compared. Recognizing the global financial crisis of 2008, the change in casual relationships was examined in terms of pre- and post-break periods. In conclusion, when a multivariate econometric model is developed for multi-markets and multi-players, it is necessary to consider a number of attributes on data relations, including cointegration, causal relationship, time-varying correlation and variance, and multivariate non-normality. This dissertation employs several econometric models to specify these characteristics. This approach will be useful in further studies of the information transmission mechanism among multi-markets or multi-players.

Choi, Hankyeung

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

The oil price and non-OPEC supplies  

SciTech Connect

The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries.

Seymour, A.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market .  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering (more)

Yan, Xing

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

renewables can provide price certainty over longer terms. In6 This additiona l level of price discovery in longer-datedreplicate the long-term price stability that renewables can

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. This workcoal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally,coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Interaction between crude oil price and Dow Jones Index on integrated oil and gas company.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The crude oil is one of the major energy resources in our lifetime and plays its crucial role in our economy. How the stock prices (more)

Houng, Chi-yao

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 1 The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices by Jose A. Villar Natural Gas Division Energy Information Administration and Frederick L. Joutz Department of Economics The George Washington University Abstract: This paper examines the time series econometric relationship between the Henry Hub natural gas price and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. Typically, this relationship has been approached using simple correlations and deterministic trends. When data have unit roots as in this case, such analysis is faulty and subject to spurious results. We find a cointegrating relationship relating Henry Hub prices to the WTI and trend capturing the relative demand and supply effects over the 1989-through-2005 period. The dynamics of the relationship

297

Spread narrows between Brent and WTI crude oil benchmark prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Spot prices for benchmarks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Sea Brent crude oil neared parity of around $109 per barrel July 19, and the Brent-WTI spread was ...

298

Past, present and future evolution of oil prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis reviews how oil price has evolved throughout time since it was discovered and commercially exploited in 1859 in Pennsylvania. Rather than a pure economic study, this thesis illustrates how major historic and ...

Corsetti, Manuel

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that rise or result in a significant downturn.

Information Center

2008-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

300

Weekly Minnesota No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Minnesota No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Weekly Massachusetts No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Massachusetts No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

302

Weekly Wisconsin No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Wisconsin No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

303

Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

18.60 19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

304

Rhode Island Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... Residential Propane: 3.540: 3.534: 3.540: 3.515: 3.511: 3.514: 1990-2013

305

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

exploration, and lower expected costs of finding and producing these fuels. The theories of oil and gas supply. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oil prices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last has resulted in increased estimates of energy supplies, increased success rates in oil and gas

306

A New Hybrid Approach for Analysis of Factors Affecting Crude Oil Price  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new hybrid approach is presented to analyze factors affecting crude oil price using rough set and wavelet neural network. Related factors that affect crude oil price are found using text mining technique and Brent oil price is chosen ... Keywords: crude oil price, prediction, rough set, wavelet neural network

Wei Xu; Jue Wang; Xun Zhang; Wen Zhang; Shouyang Wang

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production Karl Pinnoy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

improvements in GDP per unit of energy use. However, for those series, where oil price volatility is signi one would expect, based on trend improvements in GDP per unit of energy use. However, for those series, P. and L. Kilian (2009). "How Sensitive Are Consumer Expenditures to Retail Energy Prices

Maurer, Frank

308

Lower crude oil prices to help push down gasoline pricesLower...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

down from the average 3.63 a gallon U.S. drivers paid in 2012. Expected lower crude oil prices, which account for about two-thirds of the cost of gasoline, will help push...

309

Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: One can use a simple model to deal with price/fundamental relationships. This one predicts monthly average WTI price as a function of OECD total petroleum stock deviations from the normal levels. The graph shows the model as it begins predicting prices in 1992. It shows how well the model has predicted not only the direction, but the magnitude of prices over this 8+ year period. While the model is simple and not perfect, it does predict the overall trends and, in particular, the recent rise in prices. It also shows that prices may have over-shot the fundamental balance for a while -- at least partially due to speculative concerns over Mideast tensions, winter supply adequacy, and Iraq's export policies. Prices moved lower in December, and even undershot briefly the

310

Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX (X stands for exogenous/fundamental variable system load in our study), AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX and Markov regime-switching models to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot prices. We then use them for out-ofsample point and interval forecasting in normal and extremely volatile periods preceding the market crash in winter 2000/2001. We find evidence that (i) non-linear, threshold regime-switching (TAR/TARX) models outperform their linear counterparts, both in point and interval forecasting, and that (ii) an additional GARCH component generally decreases point forecasting efficiency. Interestingly, the former result challenges a number of previously published studies on the failure of non-linear regime-switching models in forecasting.

Adam Misiorek; Stefan Trueck; Rafal Weron

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Since Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997), a common view in the literature has been that systematic monetary policy responses to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks are an important source of aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. economy. We show that there is no evidence of systematic monetary policy responses to oil price shocks after 1987 and that this lack of a policy response is unlikely to be explained by reduced real wage rigidities. Prior to 1987, according to standard VAR models, the Federal Reserve was not responding to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks, as commonly presumed, but rather to the oil price shocks directly, consistent with a preemptive move by the Federal Reserve to counteract potential inflationary pressures. There are indications that this response is poorly identified, however, and there is no evidence that this policy response in the pre-1987 period caused substantial fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate or in real output. Our analysis suggests that the traditional monetary policy reaction framework explored by BGW and incorporated in subsequent DSGE models should be replaced by DSGE models that take account of the endogeneity of the real price of oil and that allow policy responses to depend on the underlying causes of oil price shocks.

Lutz Kilian

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Properties of energy-price forecasts for scheduling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wholesale electricity markets are becoming ubiquitous, offering consumers access to competitively-priced energy. The cost of energy is often correlated with its environmental impact; for example, environmentally sustainable forms of energy might benefit ...

Georgiana Ifrim; Barry O'Sullivan; Helmut Simonis

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast - U.S. Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The rest of the talk will discuss how we got where we are today and what we expect this winter. I will focus on two drivers behind prices: the crude ...

314

Bristol BS8 1TNThe Real Interest Rate, the Real Oil Price, and US Unemployment Revisited  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The time series evidence on the relationship between unemployment and the real prices of capital and energy is re-examined for US data. In contrast to previous studies, results indicate that the real interest rate matters little, if at all, for equilibrium unemployment. Using a Markov Switching vector autoregressive method proposed by Psaradakis, Ravn, Sola (2005) [JApplEconometrics 20(5), pp. 665-683] to investigate time-varying Granger causality, the paper shows that the real rate helps forecast unemployment during NBER expansions only. Granger causality from the oil price to unemployment occurs in recessions. The results support the view that the price of crude induces at least some recessions, while not being a regular feature of the US business cycle.

Spyros Andreopoulos; Spyros Andreopoulos

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices? - Energy  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

& Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) & Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis Sources & Uses Petroleum & Other Liquids Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas Exploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. Electricity Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & Efficiency Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. Coal Reserves, production, prices, employ- ment and productivity, distribution, stocks, imports and exports. Renewable & Alternative Fuels

316

Oil Price Volatility - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... [stock] prices and the reasons therefore ... fixed asset supply ? can only take place among a subset of participants, e.g. speculators.

317

Selected State Residential Heating Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Ohio, on the bottom of the chart, ... overhead operations (including advertising costs) plus county inspection fees are also factored into the price.

318

Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices Figure 1 focuses on the historythe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the history

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Do OPEC Members Know Something the Market Doesnt? Fair Price Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the fair price of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the price prevailing in the crude oil market at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with the contemporaneous futures price. A natural question is whether these fair price pronouncements contain information not already reflected in market prices. To find the answer, we collect fair price statements made between 2000 and 2009 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the fair price series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use several methodologies to establish that fair price pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and that they supply little or no new news to oil futures market participants.

Celso Brunetti; Bahattin Byk?ahin; Michel A. Robe; Kirsten R. Soneson; David Reiffen; Bob Buckley; Rasmus Fatum; Robert L. Losey; Jim Moser; Adam Sieminski; Phil Verlegger; Joe Konizeski

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

CRUDE OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND SAUDI ARABIAN BEHAVIOUR by  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The responsibility for the contents of the working paper rests with the author, not the Institute. Since working papers are of a preliminary nature, it may be useful to contact the author of a particular working paper about results or caveats before referring to, or quoting, a paper. Any comments on working papers should be sent directly to the author. CRUDE OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND SAUDI ARABIAN BEHAVIOUR* This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price change. This explains why oil prices overshoot. The results of a general equilibrium model applied to Saudi Arabia support this analysis. They also indicate that Saudi Arabia does not have any incentive in altering the crude oil market equilibrium with either positive or negative supply shocks; and that its behaviour is asymmetric in the presence of world demand shocks, having an incentive (disincentive) in intervening if a negative (positive) demand shock hits the crude oil market. A second set of simulations is designed to understand what might be a correct OECD policy to lower prices. A tax cut would worsen the situation, whereas policies which can increase the price elasticity of demand seem to be very effective. * I have benefited from discussions with Christiane Kasten, Bodo Steiner and Manfred Wiebelt. All errors are my responsibility.

Roberto A. De Santis; Roberto A. De Santis

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the natural gas commodity market demanded a more independent look at natural gas prices. In the 1991. A second consideration was the advice of the Council's Natural Gas Policy, Natural Gas Advisory, and Demand. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oil prices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last

324

An economic assessment of the impact of two crude oil price scenarios on households  

SciTech Connect

The impact of two possible future crude oil price scenarios -- high and low price cases -- is assessed for three population groups: majority (non-Hispanic and nonblack), black, and Hispanic. The two price scenarios were taken from the energy security'' report published by the US Department of Energy in 1987. Effects of the two crude oil price scenarios for the 1986--95 period are measured for energy demand and composition and for share of income spent on energy by the three population groups at both the national and census-region levels. The effects on blacks are marginally more adverse than on majority householders, while effects on Hispanics are about the same as those on the majority. Little change is seen in percentage of income spent on energy over the forecast period. Both Hispanic and black households would spend a larger share of their incomes on energy than would majority households. The relatively adverse effects in the higher price scenario shift from the South and West Census regions to the Northeast and Midwest. 24 refs., 7 figs., 22 tabs.

Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.; Hemphill, R.C.; Hill, L.G.; Marinelli, J.L.; Rose, K.J.; Santini, D.J.

1990-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Myth About Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division EIA's Office of Oil and GasMarch 10, 2000

Information Center

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Forecasting Fuel Price Behavior for Energy Risk Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides an overview of the drivers of fuel price disruptionsparticularly gas pricingover a period of several decades. It drills down more deeply on very recent causes of disruptions for example, shales as a new source of gas and offers a spectrum of likely future disruptions.

2009-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

327

Price forecasting and optimal operation of wholesale customers in a competitive electricity market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

c ? Hamidreza Zareipour 2006I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning of demand-side Bulk Electricity Market Customers (BEMCs). The Ontario electricity market is selected as the primary case market and its structure is studied in detail. A set of explanatory variable candidates is then selected accordingly, which may explain price behavior in this market. In the process of selecting the explanatory variable candidates, some important issues, such as direct or indirect effects of the variables on price behavior, availability of the variables before real-time, choice of appropriate forecasting horizon and market time-line, are taken into account. Price and demand in three neighboring electricity markets, namely, the New York, New England, and PJM electricity markets, are also considered among the explanatory variable candidates.

Hamidreza Zareipour

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

0 1 August 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 August 10, 2010 Release WTI crude oil spot prices averaged 76.32 per barrel in July...

329

Static Equilibrium: Forecasting Long-Term Energy Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes a static equilibrium model that can be used by power companies to analyze retirement and investment decisions. Given deterministic expectations of prices, technology alternatives, and growth rates, the model defines a long-term equilibrium for an electricity market that can be used as a practical starting point for analyzing dynamic equilibrium, the distribution of outcomes associated with investment and retirement in a probabilistic world. The report includes a spreadsheet that ca...

2005-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

330

Crude oil prices peaked early in 2012 - Today in Energy - U.S ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil prices rose during the first quarter of 2012 as concerns about possible international supply disruptions pushed up petroleum prices.

331

Oil Price Shocks, Inventories, and Macroeconomic Dynamics, mimeo  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper employs disaggregated manufacturing data to investigate the causes of the time delay between an increase in oil prices and the following slowdown in economic activity. VAR results show that, unlike aggregate GDP, the effect of an oil price shock on new motor vehicles production shows up immediately and is statistically significantly. After one quarter, similar patterns are observed for industries that are oil-intensive or for which motor vehicles constitute a demand-shifter. The continuing fall in manufacturing production then leads the economy into a recession. The paper then estimates a modified linear-quadratic inventory model and shows that this description of the oil price dynamics is consistent with rational behavior by firms. An increase in oil prices leads to a decline in manufacturing sales; partly because the shock catches manufacturers by surprise and partly because of their desire to balance the accelerator and production smoothing motives, manufacturers deviate from the target level of inventories and spread the decline in production over various quarters. Moreover, the dynamics entailed by the structural estimates capture two stylized facts about inventory behavior: procyclicality and persistence.

Ana Mara Herrera

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

Herce, Miguel Angel

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

to 3.95 per gallon. That's down 8-tenths of a penny from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil...

334

CERTS Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Review Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, Yuting Ji, and Jinsub Kim School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University Jie Mei, Georgia Institute of Technology August 7, 2013 CERTS Review DATA QUALITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON MARKET OPERATIONS DENY OF SERVICE ATTACK ON REAL-TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET COVER UP PROTECTION AGAINST TOPOLOGY ATTACK Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, and Jinsub Kim Cornell University August 8, 2013 Project overview  Objectives  Accurate short-term probabilistic forecasting of real-time LMP.  Incorporate real-time measurements (e.g. SCADA/PMU).  Scalable computation techniques.  Summary of results  A real-time LMP model with forecasting and measurement

335

What are the differences between various types of crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Blend are two crude oils that are either traded themselves or whose prices affect other types of crude oil.

336

Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000 - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000. Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook database, August 2000. Previous slide: ... Since US refiners buy crude oil from so many ...

337

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report." 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1997...

338

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA-182, "Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report." 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1996...

339

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2: August 27, 2: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Digg Find More places to share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on AddThis.com... Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth

340

Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three cases, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel) Reference Low Oil Price

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Oil and natural gas reserve prices, 1982-2002 : implications for depletion and investment cost  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ? of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a ...

Adelman, Morris Albert

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Louisiana Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

24.51: 24.84: 30.52: 40.48: 54.05: 64.23: 71.63: 100.89: 59.18: 2010's: 78.25: 106.20: 105.97 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

343

Montana Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

72.51: 72.37: 82.12: 87.25: 86.80: 82.93: 80.25: 2013: 88.92: 87.79: 86.40: 86.18: 87.02: 85.58: 98.28: 98.25 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

344

Crude Oil Price Prediction Based On Multi-scale Decomposition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A synergetic model (DWT-LSSVM) is presented in this paper. First of all, the raw data is decomposed into approximate coefficients and the detail coefficients at different scales by discrete wavelet transforms (DWT). These coefficients obtained by previous ... Keywords: crude oil price, least squares vector machines, wavelet transform

Yejing Bao; Xun Zhang; Lean Yu; Shouyang Wang

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

The oil price really is a speculative bubble  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The oil price really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the ...

Eckaus, Richard S.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

An Improved CAViaR Model for Oil Price Risk  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As a benchmark for measuring market risk, Value-at-Risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. ... Keywords: CAViaR, exponentially weighted moving average, oil price risk

Dashan Huang; Baimin Yu; Lean Yu; Frank J. Fabozzi; Masao Fukushima

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; A-Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W XYZ. Energy & Financial Markets What Drives Crude Oil Prices? ...

348

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long...

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi

2011-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

349

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

350

Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030  

SciTech Connect

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Prices. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2000.

352

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

353

Prediction of movement direction in crude oil prices based on semi-supervised learning  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Oil price prediction has long been an important determinant in the management of most sectors of industry across the world, and has therefore consistently required detailed research. However, existing approaches to oil price prediction have sometimes ... Keywords: Feature extraction (PCA/NLPCA), Machine learning, Oil price prediction, Semi-supervised learning (SSL), Technical indicators

Hyunjung Shin, Tianya Hou, Kanghee Park, Chan-Kyoo Park, Sunghee Choi

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook 8/13/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance OPEC Production Likely To Remain Low U.S. Reflects World Market Crude Oil Outlook Conclusions Distillate Prices Increase With Crude Oil Distillate Stocks on the East Coast Were Very Low Entering Last Winter Distillate Demand Strong Last Winter More Supply Possible This Fall than Forecast Distillate Fuel Oil Imports Could Be Available - For A Price Distillate Supply/Demand Balance Reflected in Spreads Distillate Stocks Expected to Remain Low Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook Heating Oil Outlook Conclusion Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil

355

Heating oil prices rise due to winter demand and crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

356

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2012a) to a labour exporting country that receives large inows of external income the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers from major oil exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic ination rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper conrms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordans output volatility can be associated with uctuations in net income received from abroad (arising from oil price shocks). External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.

Kamiar Mohaddes A; Mehdi Raissi B

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, Administrator May 5, 2011 Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation EIA's Energy and Financial Markets Initiative 2 Richard Newell, May 5, 2011 * Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency - improved petroleum storage capacity data - other improvements to data quality and coverage * Analysis of energy and financial market dynamics to improve understanding of what drives energy prices - internal analysis and sponsorship of external research * Outreach with other Federal agencies, experts, and the public - expert workshops - public sessions at EIA's energy conferences - solicitation of public comment on EIA's data collections

358

Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Fuel Price Assumptions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Fifth Power Plan includes price forecasts for natural gas, oil, and coal. Natural gas prices have by far and natural gas prices have put some pressure on coal prices as well, although they remain lower capacity to deliver the coal and higher oil prices increased the delivery costs as well. Both natural gas

359

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

360

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily production of distillate fuel at U.S. refineries is forecast to be 70,000 barrels higher this summer. With domestic distillate output exceeding demand, U.S. net exports of distillate fuel are expected to average 830,000 barrels per day this summer. That's down 12 percent from last summer's

363

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

364

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5: November 12, 5: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Digg Find More places to share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on

365

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

366

Does Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks with another spike in gasoline  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks gasoline price spike, Congress summoned the executives of the Big Oil companies to testify about their enormous profits. Some commentators and pundits characterize the pricing policy of Big Oil as "price

Ahmad, Sajjad

367

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

369

The Value of Hurricane Forecasts to Oil and Gas Producers in the Gulf of Mexico  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The threat of hurricanes often forces producers of crude oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico to evacuate offshore drilling rigs and temporarily to cease production. More accurate hurricane forecasts would result in fewer false alarms, ...

Timothy J. Considine; Christopher Jablonowski; Barry Posner; Craig H. Bishop

2004-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

371

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Low Oil PriceTables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Price Tables (2007-2035) Oil Price Tables (2007-2035) Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Main Low Oil Price Tables (2007- 2035) Table Title Formats Summary Low Oil Price Case Tables PDF Gif Year-by-Year Low Oil Price Case Tables Excel Gif Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary Excel Gif Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source Excel Gif Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source Excel Gif Table 4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 5. Commercial Sector Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption Excel Gif Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Excel Gif Table 9. Electricity Generating Capacity

372

Impacts of PSC Elements on Contract Economics under Oil Price Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Production sharing contract (PSC) is one of the most common types of cooperation modes in international petroleum contracts. The elements that affect PSC economics mainly include royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax. Assuming that oil ... Keywords: Production Sharing, Oil Price, Oil Contract, International Petroleum Cooperation

Wang Zhen; Zhao Lin; Liu Mingming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot natural gas price in energy-equivalent terms, 1990-2040 Ratio Released:April 15, 2013

374

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An ...

Ramberg, David J. (David John)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Spot Prices Spot Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, Products in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product by Area 12/09/13 12/10/13 12/11/13 12/12/13 12/13/13 12/16/13 View History Crude Oil WTI - Cushing, Oklahoma 97.1 98.32 97.25 97.21 96.27 97.18 1986-2013 Brent - Europe 110.07 108.91 109.47 108.99 108.08 110.3 1987-2013 Conventional Gasoline New York Harbor, Regular 2.677 2.698 2.670 2.643 2.639 2.650 1986-2013 U.S. Gulf Coast, Regular 2.459 2.481 2.429 2.398 2.377 2.422 1986-2013 RBOB Regular Gasoline Los Angeles 2.639 2.661 2.569 2.543 2.514 2.527 2003-2013 No. 2 Heating Oil New York Harbor

376

Lower prices wreak havoc on Alaska oil patch  

SciTech Connect

The decline in oil prices has slowed drilling activity at Prudhoe Bay even while offshore field construction work continues. By winter, the layoff of about 14 drilling rigs will mean unemployment for an estimated 1400 workers at one field. New construction projects include a plant to process natural gas liquids for the trans-Alaska pipeline and a miscible injection project. The potential of the limestone reservoir at the Lisburne field will remain an unknown until information is available on the effects of gas injection and waterflooding. The author describes work in progress at Lisburne, Kuparuk River, Endicott, and Milne Point Fields to illustrate the bleak prospects for North Slope development. Higher prices in the future, however, will leave the US with large reserves to develop if the companies can weather the lean years. 1 figure.

Bradner, T.

1986-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

OPEC and the price of oil in 1993  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article is based on a talk given by Mr. Francisco R. Parra - a former Secretary General of OPEC and senior executive of Petroleos de Venezuela - at the Advanced International Petroleum Executive Seminar held by Petroleum Economics Limited in Divonne, from 9 to 11 March 1993. The article first appeared in Middle East Economic Survey 36:26, 29 March 1993. It is reprinted here with permission from the author and MEES. In his talk, he examines the minimal impact of OPEC on world oil prices during the past five years and discusses a number of reasons for this. To reverse this, he concludes that OPEC should limit inventories until prices for crude reach $25/bbl. 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Parra, F.R.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

378

Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Investor Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on Investor Flows and Oil Prices References Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices Kenneth J. Singleton Graduate School of Business Stanford University August, 2011 Introduction Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on Investor Flows and Oil Prices References Investor Flows, Speculation, and Oil Prices The role of speculation (broadly construed) in the dramatic rise and subsequent sharp decline in oil prices during 2008? Many attribute these swings to changes in fundamentals of supply and demand, within representative agent models. At the same time there is mounting evidence of the "financialization" of commodity markets. Objective: investigate the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on crude-oil futures prices. Introduction Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on

379

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7: May 12, 2003 7: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price

380

Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Winter Crude Oil and  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: While the relatively low stock forecast (although not as low as last winter) adds some extra pressure to prices, the price of crude oil could be the major factor affecting heating oil prices this winter. The current EIA forecast shows residential prices averaging $1.29 this winter, assuming no volatility. The average retail price is about 7 cents less than last winter, but last winter included the price spike in November 2000, December 2000, and January 2001. Underlying crude oil prices are currently expected to be at or below those seen last winter. WTI averaged over $30 per barrel last winter, and is currently forecast to average about $27.50 per barrel this winter. As those of you who watch the markets know, there is tremendous uncertainty in the amount of crude oil supply that will be available this winter. Less

382

U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

383

Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that ...

384

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and (more)

Ramberg, David J. (David John)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Effects of futures market manipulation on crude oil prices: An empirical examination.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Crude oil prices moved irregularly in the period leading to the financial meltdown in the beginning of 2008. This research paper deals with the explaining (more)

Elhelou, Rami

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices and its effect on demand.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The overall theme of the three chapters is the relationship between the prices of natural gas and crude oil, and the factors that cause short (more)

Rosthal, Jennifer Elizabeth

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Low natural gas prices in 2012 reduced returns for some oil and ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Producers with lower proportions of liquids in their total oil and gas production generally had ... wholesale natural gas prices in the United States and Canada fell ...

388

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

389

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

390

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

underestimate natural gas prices. The trends changed afterestimate natural gas prices. These trends suggest that

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

2012 Brief: Average 2012 crude oil prices remain near 2011 levels ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Average crude oil prices in 2012 were at historically high levels for the second year in a row. Brent crude oil averaged $111.67 per barrel, slightly above the 2011 ...

392

Why Hasnt the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices have increased substantially over the last several years.When oil price increases of this magnitude occurred during the 1970s, they were associated with severe recessions.Why hasnt that happened this time around? This Letter explores some answers to that question. Why should oil affect the economy? When the price of oil rises, U.S. households and businesses who purchase fuel oil, gasoline, and other petroleum-based products have less disposable income to spend on other goods and services. However, for domestically produced oil, oil producers receive the extra income from the products they sell, so total U.S. income is not directly affected.Therefore, for domestic oil, a price increase

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation - EIA  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation for Selected Countries1 Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation for Selected Countries1 U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton2 Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Argentina NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Australia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Austria 83.0 96.4 146.4 153.3 182.2 226.1 220.3 342.3 248.3 Barbados NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Belgium 155.1 160.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Bolivia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Brazil NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Canada 115.7 117.8 180.4 141.5 198.4 222.4 NA NA NA Chile NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Colombia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Cuba NA NA NA 183.4 NA NA NA NA NA

394

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Which way the natural gas price: an attempt to predict theas a Hedge Against Gas Price Movement. Public UtilitiesHedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. http://

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Dynamic filter weights neural network model integrated with differential evolution for day-ahead price forecasting in energy market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper a new dynamic model for forecasting electricity prices from 1 to 24h in advance is proposed. The model is a dynamic filter weight Adaline using a sliding mode weight adaptation technique. The filter weights for this neuron constitute of ... Keywords: Differential evolution, Dynamic filter weights neuron, Energy market, Local linear wavelet neural network, Sliding mode control

S. Chakravarty; P. K. Dash

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

The projected impact of lower oil prices on US energy conservation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In view of conservation savings during a period of rising world oil prices (1972 to 1982), the dramatic drop in world oil prices in 1986 elicits the question: Do low world oil prices threaten the conservation savings that occurred during the previous decade. In order to test the potential loss in conservation from the drop in world oil prices in the target year 1995, two oil price scenarios were constructed: a case testing what would have occurred if oil prices remained at their 1984 level ($30/barrel in 1985 dollars), and one in which prices drop to and are maintained at $14/barrel (in 1985 dollars). This approach represents a boundary analysis, illustrating what could happen to conservation rather than predicting what will happen. By comparing projections of energy consumption under the two scenarios, the potential conservation loss from the drop in oil prices can be estimated: (1) potential conservation losses from lower world oil prices might be in the range of 9% in 1995; (2) only about one quarter of this conservation loss represents potential losses in energy efficiency; and (3) the remaining three quarters of the conservation losses result from behavioral changes and increased economic growth under lower prices. The answer to the question posed above is therefore yes; low oil prices do pose a threat to the conservation savings amassed during the past decade. But the threat is not as great as it could be 1-10% loss versus a 25% previous gain). This is because only a small part of the efficiency gains (about 2.5% out of 17%) would be lost. Most of the projected losses in conservation from low oil prices would be behavioral losses (almost all of the 8% past behavioral gain could be lost). 14 figs., 9 tabs.

Not Available

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Gasoline Prices: What is Happening?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? 5/10/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesn't Reflect Potential Volatility Midwest Looking Like Last Year RFG Responding More Strongly Gasoline Prices Vary Among Locations.Retail Regular Gasoline Price, Cents per Gallon May 8, 2001 Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Expected To Remain Relatively High Through At Least 2001 Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight Low U.S. Stocks Indicate Tight U.S. Market Regional Inventories Tight Product Balance Pushes Up Product Spread (Spot Product - Crude Price) "New Factor" Contributing to Volatility: Excess Capacity is Gone Regional Refinery Utilization Shows Gulf Coast Pressure

398

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this forecast gap. Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

399

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998 to 2003 (2 Futures Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998to 2003 (Months 13- Forecast from 1998 to 2003 (Months 1-12)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Forecasting of isothermal enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and waterflood processes.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Oil production from EOR and waterflood processes supplies a considerable amount of the world's oil production. Therefore, the screening and selection of the best EOR (more)

Mollaei, Alireza

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Energy futures markets are hubs that price and marketenergy price fluctuations. In theory, futures market pricesenergy prices, including most prominently, energy futures markets.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Support vector machines versus back propagation algorithm for oil price prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The importance of crude oil in the world economy has made it imperative that efficient models be designed for predicting future prices. Neural networks can be used as prediction models, thus, in this paper we investigate and compare the use of a support ... Keywords: back propagation algorithm, crude oil, neural networks, price prediction, radial basis function, support vector machines

Adnan Khashman; Nnamdi I. Nwulu

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Oil Prices and U.S. Aggregate Economic Activity: A Question of Neutrality  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Research suggests rising oil prices reduced output and increased inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s and falling oil prices boosted output and lowered inflation in the mid- to late 1980s. Stephen P. A. Brown is a senior economist and assistant vice president and Mine K. Ycel is a senior economist and research officer in the

Stephen P. A. Brown; Mine K. Ycel

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Another Bull Market Consolidation or Have Oil Prices Headed South for the Winter?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation was given at the New York Energy Forum on September 5, 2006. It explores the reasons behind rising oil prices over the last few years and discusses whether the drop in oil prices seen in late August and early September 2005 is the start of a long-running trend or is only a temporary decline.

Information Center

2006-09-12T23:59:59.000Z

405

System analysis approach for the identification of factors driving crude oil prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system analysis approach is proposed to identify the main factors driving international crude oil prices by integrating a partial least squares model, an vector error correction model and the directed acyclic graph method. The different mechanisms ... Keywords: Crude oil price, DAG, Driving factors, Financial crisis, VECM

Qiang Ji

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTime-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

Michael Plante; Michael Plante; Nora Traum; We Thank Ron Alquist; Sebnem Kalemli-ozcan; Junghoon Lee; James Murray

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship among the U.S. Ethanol, Corn and Soybean Sectors, and World Oil Prices.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis aimed to investigate the relationships among the following variables: U.S. corn prices, U.S. ethanol production, U.S. soybean prices and world oil prices. After (more)

Savernini, Maira Q. M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

EIA - AEO2010 - World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or “sweet”) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for “total liquids,” which includes conventional petroleum liquids—such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain—in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil. World oil prices can be influenced by a multitude of factors. Some tend to be short term, such as movements in exchange rates, financial markets, and weather, and some are longer term, such as expectations concerning future demand and production decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2009, the interaction of market factors led prompt month contracts (contracts for the nearest traded month) for crude oil to rise relatively steadily from a January average of $41.68 per barrel to a December average of $74.47 per barrel [38].

409

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

410

A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for their comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to contractionary monetary policies that arise in response to inflation concerns engendered by rising oil prices? Can systematic monetary policy be used to alleviate the consequences of oil shocks on the economy? This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition in which oil and money matter to study these questions. The economy's response to oil-price shocks is examined under a variety of monetary policy rules in environments with flexible and sticky prices. We find that easy-inflation policies amplify the negative output response to positive oil shocks and that systematic monetary policy accounts for up to two thirds of the fall in output. On the other hand, we show that a monetary policy that targets the (overall) price level substantially alleviates the impact of oil-price shocks

Sylvan Leduc; Keith Sill; Sylvain Leduc; Keith Sill

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices for Selected Crude...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

(Dollars per Barrel)","Mars Blend First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)","West Texas Intermediate First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)","West Texas Sour First...

412

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Hedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. http://Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices: The Impact ofTheis. 2001. Which way the natural gas price: an attempt to

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels June 11, 2008 - 1:30pm Addthis Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer sent a letter on June 11, 2008 to Senator Jeff Bingaman addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. Read the letter. Without Biofuels, Gas Prices Would Increase $.20 to $.35 per Gallon. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that gasoline prices would be between 20 cents to 35 cents per gallon higher without ethanol1, a first-generation biofuel. For a typical household, that means saving about $150 to $300 per year. For the U.S. overall, this saves gas expenditures of $28 billion to

414

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels June 11, 2008 - 1:30pm Addthis Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer sent a letter on June 11, 2008 to Senator Jeff Bingaman addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. Read the letter. Without Biofuels, Gas Prices Would Increase $.20 to $.35 per Gallon. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that gasoline prices would be between 20 cents to 35 cents per gallon higher without ethanol1, a first-generation biofuel. For a typical household, that means saving about $150 to $300 per year. For the U.S. overall, this saves gas expenditures of $28 billion to

415

Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Vary With Seasons and Supply/Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Of course, petroleum product prices don't move in lockstep to crude oil prices, for a number of reasons. We find it useful to look at variations in the spread between product and crude oil prices, in this case comparing spot market prices for each. The difference between heating oil and crude oil spot prices tends to vary seasonally; that is, it's generally higher in the winter, when demand for distillate fuels is higher due to heating requirements, and lower in the summer. (Gasoline, as we'll see later, generally does the opposite.) However, other factors affecting supply and demand, including the relative severity of winter weather, can greatly distort these "typical" seasonal trends. As seen on this chart, the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 featured

416

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

417

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010 December 2012 (February 2013-Revised Tables 5, 6 and 15 and associated links) Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010 ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views

418

Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

Edwards, J.D. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Bakken crude oil price differential to WTI narrows over ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. ...

420

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy price fluctuations. In theory, futures market prices summarize privately available informationEnergy; Brookhaven National Laboratory Canadian Energy Research Institute U.S. Energy Information Administration Energy Marketsinformation about future energy prices, including most prominently, energy futures markets.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futures Market andSTEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futures Market andforecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

423

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

424

Laherreres Oil Production Forecast, 1930-2150  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

L. F. Ivanhoes estimate also showed peak production around 2010 (Get Ready For Another Oil Shock!, The Futurist, Jan-Feb, 1997).

425

Multiscale forecasting and risk measurement in the crude oil market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

???With the increasing trend of globalization and deregulation comes the increasing level of structural complexity in the crude oil market, which in turn leads to (more)

He, Kaijian ( ???)

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Natural Gas Citygate Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross...

427

A neural network model based on the multi-stage optimization approach for short-term food price forecasting in China  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many studies have demonstrated that back-propagation neural network can be effectively used to uncover the nonlinearity in the financial markets. Unfortunately, back-propagation algorithm suffers the problems of slow convergence, inefficiency, and lack ... Keywords: Artificial neural network, Back-propagation, Food price forecasting, Multi-stage optimization approach, Time series forecasting

Zou Haofei; Xia Guoping; Yang Fangting; Yang Han

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Analysis of alternative-fuel price trajectories  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Findings are presented from a study to (1) acquire, analyze, and report alternative published price projections including both oil- and coal-price trajectories, and to (2) apply the fixed-annuity formula to the updated primary source projections (Energy Information Administration; Data Resources, Inc.; and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc.) and to the newly acquired price projections. This report also encompasses: comparisons of key assumptions underlying the price projections, and a discussion of the applicability of the fixed-annuity formula as used in the alternative-cost calculation. Section II contains graphic presentations of all updated and newly acquired coal and oil price forecasts and the corresponding calculated annuity equivalents, tabulated presentations and discussions of each forecast and underlying assumptions, and a description of how each forecast price series was transformed into input for the present-value formulas. Section III presents the fixed-annuity formula employed and discusses its appropriateness for this application. Section IV discusses the applicability of the net present value approach for comparing alternate-fuel price trajectories. Appendix A contains a listing of contacts as potential sources of price forecasts. Appendix B contains the raw forecast data from each forecast source and the coal and oil price series derived from the raw data which were actually input into the cost calculation procedure. Appendix C contains a description and listing of the computer program developed to implement the cost calculation procedure. Finally, Appendix D contains tabulations and discussions of other alternative world crude price forecasts that were identified, but for which no corresponding coal-price projections were available. (MCW)

Not Available

1980-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

429

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

430

Oil futures prices in a production economy with investment constraints  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We document a new stylized fact regarding the term structure of futures volatility. We show that the relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and ...

Kogan, Leonid

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 132, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Production, lower 48 onshore and lower 48 offshore. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO crude oil EIA prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region- Reference Case (xls, 54.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

432

AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region

433

U.S. less Alaskan North Slope Crude Oil First Purchase Price ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

51.02: 60.22: 67.04: 94.72: 56.65: 2010's: 75.04: 95.35: 94.11 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

434

Oil futures price curve has steepened over the past six months ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil futures contracts allow crude to be bought and sold for delivery at specific dates in the future, meaning market participants can lock in a price today for ...

435

Recently, S&P 500 Index and WTI crude oil futures price ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Over the past few weeks (July 1 through August 19), the movement of oil prices has closely mirrored that of the Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 Index.

436

On a euro basis, Brent crude oil spot price surpasses prior ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

On a euro basis, the spot price for Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, has surpassed its prior record high and set a new record high of 96.53 euros per barrel on ...

437

U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

View History: Monthly Annual : Download Data (XLS File) U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4

438

Weekly Ohio No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Ohio No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value End Date

439

Weekly New Jersey No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly New Jersey No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

440

U.S. Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... Residential Propane: 2.376: 2.405: 2.413: 2.449: 2.486: 2.489: 1990-2013:

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

biomass in particular are subject to fuel price risks ofbiomass, solar, and hydro power are often sold on a fixed-pricebiomass, solar, and hydro power, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called "terminal price " of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost of extraction, cumulative production, and proven reserves. The predicted terminal prices seem sensible for a range of parameters and variables, as illustrated by the sensitivity analysis. Using the terminal price of oil, we calculate the time to depletion, and determine the extraction and price proles over the life-time of the resource. The extraction proles generated seem to be in line with the actual production and the predicted prices are generally in line with those currently observed.

Kamiar Mohaddes

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

International Petroleum (Oil) Prices webpage provided by EIA  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

444

Price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil narrowing - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

445

oil prices - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

446

The world oil market and OPEC behavior: The leak-producer price leader model  

SciTech Connect

This is an economic study of the world's oil market in which OPEC plays the central role in determining the oil supply and price. Understanding OPEC's behavior is at the core of understanding the world's oil market. However, oil is a resource belonging to the family of natural resources known as exhaustible. We do not produce oil; we only extract and distribute a fixed amount of the resource over generations. Optimal extraction is a matter of concern to both suppliers and consumers. First, it is shown that using the traditional theory of producers behavior in the conventional commodity markets to explain extractors behavior in exhaustible resource markets is completely wrong. Second, current models of OPEC behavior are reviewed. Third, an alternative model is introduced. Previous authors have not directed their models to give explanations to the peculiar observations in oil market. This model divides the world's oil suppliers into: the free riders (non-OPEC oil producers), the OPEC hawks (a group within OPEC) and the leak-producer price leader (Saudi Arabia). Three factors, namely relatively big oil reserves, no other sources of income, and the avoidance of the so-called backstop technology make Saudi Arabia more interested in lower oil prices than are other oil extractors.

Aboalela, A.A.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

The mirage of higher petroleum prices  

SciTech Connect

Most petroleum industry price forecasters do not possess a record of which they can be proud. Long-term petroleum market forecasting has been so inaccurate that it has often been described as virtually impossible. To avoid criticism of their performance, many organizations no longer circulate their forecasts. Why have the forecasts been so wrong? Because of failure to predict supply. This paper reviews the erroneous methods used to predict price trends in the oil and gas industry and identifies methods to correct the problem.

Lynch, M.C. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Center for International Studies

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

November 2010The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated. Yet at times in the past, and very powerfully in the last two years, many voices have noted that the two price series appear to have decoupled. We explore the apparent contradiction between these two views. We find that recognition of the statistical fact of cointegration needs to be tempered with two additional points. First, there is an enormous amount of unexplained volatility in natural gas prices at short horizons. Hence, any simple formulaic relationship between the prices will leave a large portion of the natural gas price unexplained. Second, the cointegrating relationship does not appear to be stable through time. The prices may be tied, but the relationship can shift dramatically over time. Therefore, although the two price series may be cointegrated, the confidence intervals for both short and long time horizons are large.

David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons; David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Middle distillate price monitoring system. Interim validation report. [No. 2 heating oil  

SciTech Connect

The Middle Distillate Price Monitoring System collects data on prices and gross margins for No. 2 heating oil from a sample of refiners, resellers, and retailers. The data is used to evaluate the level of competition and the reasonableness of prices in the heating oil market. It is concluded that the data does not provide a basis for determining whether a market is competitive, and that there is serious doubt as to the accuracy of the information collected by the system. Some recommendations are given for improving the quality of the information. (DLC)

Hopelain, D.G.; Freedman, D.; Rice, T.H.; Veitch, J.G.; Finlay, A.

1978-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Weak oil prices seen hindrance to pace of increase in gas use  

SciTech Connect

World demand for gas is expected to rocket, yet future natural gas and liquefied natural gas projects remain threatened by the link of gas prices to crude oil prices. This is the main message that emerged from the 19th World Gas Conference in Milan last week. A number of reports predicted regional demand for gas. All foresaw a rise. International Gas Union (IGU), organizer of the conference, and said world natural gas production has continued to rise despite a significant downturn in industrial production. The paper discusses gas demand in Europe, the correlation between oil and gas prices, the natural gas industry in Indonesia, Russia, and southern Europe.

Not Available

1994-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

452

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

453

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthʹs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

454

Retail Price of No. 2 Fuel Oil to Residential Consumers  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Retail prices and Prime ...

455

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

E&P costs E&P investments E&P innovations Physical balancing Inventories Markets & market behavior Energy prices ? spot ? futures ? options

456

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, ...

457

CA Crude Oil Price History - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crudes produced in California vary in quality as shown by the different price levels of Kern and Line 63. Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude is used in California ...

458

The Price Is Wrong for Oil Shale and Tar Sand Tech  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The huge run-up in oil prices over the last several years, reaching a peak of close to US $150 per barrel this past summer, has given energy companies a big incentive to find new ways of harvesting unconventional oil, especially in North America. Technology ...

M. Heger

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil price? It does not relate to Mick' short stint at the London School of Economics, the oil industry operates on the same principle, at least in the short run. The industry relies on proven

Ahmad, Sajjad

460

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

A Hybrid ARCH-M and BP Neural Network Model For GSCI Futures Price Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As a versatile investment tool in energy markets for speculators and hedgers, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) futures are quite well known. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model incorporating ARCH family models and ANN model to forecast ... Keywords: ANN, ARCH-M, Commodity Index, Forecasting, GSCI

Wen Bo; Wang Shouyang; K. K. Lai

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

The first oil price explosion 1971-1974  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The 1970 price of Saudi Light crude was $1.21, of which 89 cents was excise tax. By end-1974, the price was about $11, of which 30-50 cents was a fee paid to the former owners, now operators. The detailed history of the ...

Adelman, Morris Albert

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

solar, and hydro power are often sold on a fixed-pricesolar, and hydro power, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Consumers Are Enjoying Low Oil Prices (Figure 1)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Exxon-Mobil Merger Recombines Two Standard Oil Spin-Offs. Exxon and Mobil were two of the seven largest companies that were spun off from the Standard Oil Company ...

465

Business cycles in oil economies  

SciTech Connect

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oil price is ignored; the few studies that use oil price as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oil price impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oil price are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oil price are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon.

Al-Mutairi, N.H.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

On the shortterm influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both linear and nonlinear relationships. Our findings show that there are significant links between the two variables in Qatar, Oman, and UAE. Thus, stock markets in these countries react positively to oil price

Mohamed El; Hedi Arouri; Julien Fouquau

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Data driven medium term electricity price forecasting in ontario electricity market and Nord Pool.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Having accurate predictions on market price variations in the future is of great importance to participants in todays electricity market. Many studies have been done (more)

Torbaghan, Shahab Shariat

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Final report of the Rhode Island State Energy Office on residential no. 2 heating oil and propane prices [SHOPP  

SciTech Connect

Summary report on residential No.2 heating oil and propane prepared under grant. Summarizes the monitoring and analysis of heating oil and propane prices from October 2000 through March 2001.

McClanahan, Janice

2001-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Iowa Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

470

Virginia Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

471

Minnesota Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

472

New York Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

473

North Carolina Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

474

Indiana Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

475

Wisconsin Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

476

Vermont Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

477

New Hampshire Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

478

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ... oil demand growth, slow supply growth and tight spare capacity 22 Richard Newell, May 5, 2011

479

Pennsylvania Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

480

California Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... of different quality crudes vary over time based on the value the market places on such quality attributes. A heavy crude oil has more heavy, ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil prices forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CEC). 2002. Natural Gas Supply and Infrastructureincluded a long-term natural gas supply deal for years 2004fixed-price gas supply contracts and natural gas storage. As

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Policy Options of Californias Reliance on Natural Gas. policy is often formulated with ratepayers in mind. 2) Second, long-term fixed-price natural gas

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy resources such as wind power carry no natural gas fuel priceenergy resources such as wind, geothermal, biomass, solar, and hydro power are often sold on a fixed-price

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

485

New York Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Residential Heating Oil: 4.392: 4.402: 4.380: 4.312: 4.314: 4.289: 1990-2013: Wholesale Heating Oil : Residential Propane: 2.902: 2.920: 2.931: 2.928: 2.933: 2.935 ...

486

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Fuel demand is affected mainly by economic conditions, and for heating oil, the weather. ... How do I calculate diesel fuel surcharges? How do I compare heating fuels?

487

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources failed to find much realization in actual stocks data. The idea that stocks are still languishing at below-normal levels is particularly persuasive when one views current levels (for key consuming regions) relative to "normal" values which account for the long-term trend in OECD stocks. We believe that monthly average WTI prices will stay around $30 per barrel for the first part of 2001. This is a noticeable upward shift in our projected average prices from even a month ago. The shift reflects greater emphasis on the lack of stock builds and less emphasis on the assumption that supply from OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers may be exceeding demand by 1-2

488

Estimating the effect of future oil prices on petroleum engineering project investment yardsticks.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study proposes two methods, (1) a probabilistic method based on historical oil prices and (2) a method based on Gaussian simulation, to model future prices of oil. With these methods to model future oil prices, we can calculate the ranges of uncertainty in traditional probability indicators based on cash flow analysis, such as net present values, net present value to investment ratio and internal rate of return. We found that conventional methods used to quantify uncertainty which use high, low and base prices produce uncertainty ranges far narrower than those observed historically. These methods fail because they do not capture the "shocks" in oil prices that arise from geopolitical events or supply-demand imbalances. Quantifying uncertainty is becoming increasingly important in the petroleum industry as many current investment opportunities in reservoir development require large investments, many in harsh exploration environments, with intensive technology requirements. Insight into the range of uncertainty, particularly for downside, may influence our investment decision in these difficult areas.

Mendjoge, Ashish V

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

490

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

491

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

492

Proposed currency composite approach to pricing OPEC oil: problems and possibilities  

SciTech Connect

The primary purpose of this dissertation was to explore the nature, purposes, benefits, and barriers of establishing a currency basket for OPEC as an alternative to the use the dollar for international trade in oil. The study included the construction and evaluation of three alternative currency baskets and the evaluation of two other baskets for the protection of the real price of OPEC oil from foreign-exchange fluctuations between 1971 and 1980. A secondary objective was to assess the inflationary impact on the real price of oil. Finally, the purpose was to evaluate the changes of the terms of trade of OPEC during the same period. The findings of the research are as follows: During 1971-1980, inflation and the relative weakness of the dollar have reduced the real price of oil to OPEC. In spite of this, the terms of trade of OPEC have substantially improved. This was because OPEC increased its oil prices much more than sufficient to compensate for inflation and the fluctuation of foreign-exchange rates.

Shaaf, M.B.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Consumers Are Enjoying Low Oil Prices (Figure 1)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MARCH 10, 1999 Summary of Jay Hakes Testimony on Exxon-Mobil Merger The major oil companies are very different companies today than they were at the time of the Arab Oil Embargo. Following the nationalization of crude-producing assets and the subsequent rise of state-owned oil companies to run and enhance those assets, major oil companies shrank. In 1972, had mergers occurred between BP and Amoco and Exxon and Mobil, the two resulting organizations would have controlled almost 28 percent of world production. Today the combined production of these four organizations accounts for less than 7 percent of production. Exxon and Mobil account for less than 4 percent. If Exxon and Mobil combine, EIA data show several regions of large overlap.

494

A Comparative Study of Multi-step-ahead Prediction for Crude Oil Price with Support Vector Regression  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate prediction on crude oil price in a long time horizon has been appealing both for academia and practitioners. Recursive strategy and direct strategy are two mainstream modeling schemas widely used for multi-step-ahead prediction in the context ... Keywords: Crude Oil Price Predicition, Multip-step-aheand Prediction, Support Vector Regression, Time Sereis Modeling

Yukun Bao; Yunfei Yang; Tao Xiong; Jinlong Zhang

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

coal supply. The natural gas supply covers six categories:renewables, oil supply, natural gas supply, natural gasnation-wide natural gas market, equalizing supply with

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Estimating household fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and LPG prices by census region  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this research is to estimate individual fuel prices within the residential sector. The data from four US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, residential energy consumption surveys were used to estimate the models. For a number of important fuel types - fuel oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas - the estimation presents a problem because these fuels are not used by all households. Estimates obtained by using only data in which observed fuel prices are present would be biased. A correction for this self-selection bias is needed for estimating prices of these fuels. A literature search identified no past studies on application of the selectivity model for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. This report describes selectivity models that utilize the Dubin/McFadden correction method for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West census regions. Statistically significant explanatory variables are identified and discussed in each of the models. This new application of the selectivity model should be of interest to energy policy makers, researchers, and academicians.

Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

498

Modeling of Asymmetry between Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices: A Monte Carlo Comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An Engle---Granger two-step procedure is commonly used to estimate cointegrating vectors and consequently asymmetric error-correction models. This study uses Monte Carlo methods and demonstrates that the Engle---Granger two-step method leads to biased ... Keywords: Asymmetry, Gasoline, Modeling, Oil prices

Afshin Honarvar

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington**  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

since 2000 represents the early phase of a `super cycle' (SC) driven by the sustained rise in demand: is there evidence of super cycles in crude oil prices? On one hand, one might expect the strong demand associated, Colorado, USA, 30 October-2 November 2011. ** PhD candidate and William J. Coulter Professor of Mineral

500

A supply-demand model for OPEC oil-pricing policies  

SciTech Connect

OPEC and its pricing policies have been subjected to constant international attention as well as criticism since 1973. Consumers find OPEC behavior irrational, while OPEC tries to justify its policies as rational and in accordance with the realities of the international oil market. The focus of this study is to contribute toward an analytical and empirical work on OPEC pricing behavior, and highlight the various factors believed to affect the future oil policies of OPEC member countries. After a survey of literature on the theoretical framework of world oil models in general, and OPEC models in particular, a linear econometric model for pricing OPEC oil is formulated which is a supply-demand equilibrium model comprising of supply, demand, and inflation-rate functions. Estimation of the behavioral equations are carried out by Ordinary and Two-Stage Least Square estimators. Econometric results from the estimation and simulation of the model seem to indicate that OPEC's pricing behavior is market-responsive and may best be explained by employing the theoretical framework of market-equilibrium condition.

Heiat, N.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z