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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Oil Price Volatility  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Robert J. Weiner Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs Public Administration, and International Affairs George Washington University; George Washington University; Membre Associ Membre Associ é é , GREEN, Universit , GREEN, Universit é é Laval Laval EIA Annual Conference Washington Washington 7 April 2009 7 April 2009 1 FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY ► ► Market fundamentals Market fundamentals . . Fluctuations in supply, Fluctuations in supply, demand, and market power demand, and market power Some fundamentals related to expectations of Some fundamentals related to expectations of

2

Oil Price Volatility - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... [stock] prices and the reasons therefore ... fixed asset supply ? can only take place among a subset of participants, e.g. speculators.

3

Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

Herce, Miguel Angel

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

What Is Price Volatility  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What Is Price Volatility? What Is Price Volatility? The term "price volatility" is used to describe price fluctuations of a commodity. Volatility is measured by the day-to-day percentage difference in the price of the commodity. The degree of variation, not the level of prices, defines a volatile market. Since price is a function of supply and demand, it follows that volatility is a result of the underlying supply and demand characteristics of the market. Therefore, high levels of volatility reflect extraordinary characteristics of supply and/or demand. Prices of basic energy (natural gas, electricity, heating oil) are generally more volatile than prices of other commodities. One reason that energy prices are so volatile is that many consumers are extremely limited in their ability to substitute other fuels when the price, of natural gas

5

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTime-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986-2011 and utilize the estimated process in a non-linear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead investment and real GDP to rise. Irreversible capital and durable investment decisions do not overturn this result.

Michael Plante; Michael Plante; Nora Traum; We Thank Ron Alquist; Sebnem Kalemli-ozcan; Junghoon Lee; James Murray

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Product Price Volatility - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future. Crude Oil -- Continued tight balance leaves world on thin edge Distillate Winter Price Retrospective Why a ...

7

Volatility in natural gas and oil markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in ...

Pindyck, Robert S.

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Volatility and commodity price dynamics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total ...

Pindyck, Robert S.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Oil consumption, pollutant emission, oil proce volatility and economic activities in selected Asian Developing Economies.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??It is now well established in the literature that oil consumption, oil price shocks, and oil price volatility may impact the economic activities negatively. Studies (more)

Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

The impact of fuel price volatility on transportation mode choice  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In recent years, the price of oil has driven large fluctuations in the price of diesel fuel, which is an important cost component in freight logistics. This thesis explores the impact of fuel price volatility on supply ...

Kim, Eun Hie

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices. WTI Crude Oil Price. Retail Gasoline Price. Source: Energy Information Administration

12

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

June 2003VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND OIL MARKETS * by  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in volatility during the time of the Enron collapse, and whether natural gas and crude oil price volatilities are interrelated. I also measure the persistence of shocks to volatility and discuss its implications for gas- and oil-related contingent claims.

Robert S. Pindyck; Robert S. Pindyck

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

EIA Oil price timeline  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, ... Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions.

15

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),Figure 3. Price of crude oil contract maturing December ofbarrels per day. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Crude Oil Price Forecast  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

We believe crude oil prices will strengthen somewhat, but prices will rise much more slowly than they fell, and they are expected to remain lower in ...

17

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by the residual quantity of oil that never gets produced.order to purchase a quantity Q barrels of oil at a price P tD t Q t Q t+1 Quantity Figure 5. Monthly oil production for

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

19

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2000 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

20

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

22

Implied volatility in oil markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modelling the implied volatility surface as a function of an option's strike price and maturity is a subject of extensive research in financial markets. The implied volatility in commodity markets is much less studied, due to a limited liquidity and ...

Svetlana Borovkova; Ferry J. Permana

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information including all information contained in the history of past prices about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and past heating season. As you can see, prices have started the heating season, about 40 to 50 cents per gallon higher than last year at this time. The data presented are from EIA's State Heating Oil and Propane Program. We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly. These data will also be used to determine the price trigger mechanism for the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve. The data are published at a State and regional level on our web site. The slide is to give you some perspective of what is happening in these markets, since you probably will get a number of calls from local residents about their heating fuels bills

25

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Retail distillate prices follow the spot distillate markets, and crude oil prices have been the main driver behind distillate spot price increases until recently.

26

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

20.86 20.67 20.47 20.24 20.32 19.57 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

27

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

28

Crude Oil Price Cycles  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The heating oil and diesel price runups in late January were made even more problematic by coming on top of the high side of the latest crude market cycle.

29

Crude Oil Price Cycles  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The heating oil and diesel fuel price runups in late January were made even more problematic by coming on top of the high side of the latest crude market cycle. Over the past 10...

30

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

31

Oil price analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The transport has been in the whole history of mankind the basic and determining mover of the human society shape. It determined not only the position of towns, but also their inner design and it was also last but not least the basic element of the economic ... Keywords: GDP, deposit, fuels, history, market equilibrium, oil, oil reserves, price

Zdenek Riha; Viktorie Jirova; Marek Honcu

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Distillate and Crude Oil Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

fuel and residential heating oil prices on the East Coast is being driven by higher crude oil prices than last year and higher spreads. Crude oil is projected to average almost...

33

Seasonal Volatility in Energy Prices: Modeling Seasonality in Natural Gas and Electricity Price Volatility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The modeling and measurement of price uncertainty are essential prerequisites to asset valuation and risk management in electric power. Practical, realistic models must take into account the systematic time patterns exhibited by price volatility. This report uses new data and techniques to reexamine the seasonal nature of energy price volatility.

2004-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

34

Metal price volatility : a study of informative metrics and the volatility mitigating effects of recycling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Metal price volatility is undesirable for firms that use metals as raw materials, because price volatility can translate into volatility of material costs. Volatile material costs and can erode the profitability of the ...

Fleming, Nathan Richard

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices have risen sharply over the last year, leading to concerns that we could see a repeat of the 1970s, when rising oil prices were accompanied by severe recessions and surging inflation. This Economic Letter examines the historical relationship between oil price shocks and inflation in light of some recent research and goes on to discuss what the recent jump in oil prices might mean for inflation in the future. Figure 1 Inflation and the relative price of oil The historical record Figure 1 plots the price of oil relative to the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) together with the core PCEPI inflation

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Fuel and Power Price Volatilities and Convergence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As more energy is traded in competitive markets, the financial performance of generation companies will be increasingly determined by how well they understand and exploit the price behavior of those markets. How volatile are fuel and power prices? How do they correlate with one another? This report addresses these questions in several wholesale electricity and fuel markets and discusses implications of changing patterns of price behavior to fuel and asset management.

1999-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

37

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter's market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through February 28, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Heating oil prices for East Coast consumers started this winter at just over $1 per gallon, but rising crude oil prices drove them up nearly 21 cents through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude oil markets, magnified by a regional shortfall of heating oil

38

Oil Prices and Inflation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

As oil prices have climbed over the last several years, the memory of the 1970s and early 1980s has not been far from the minds of the public or of monetary policymakers. In those earlier episodes, rising oil prices were accompanied by doubledigit overall inflation in the U.S. and in several other developed economies. Indeed, central bankers say they are determined not to let this experience recur, emphasizing that they intend to maintain their credibility with the public in securing low inflation and achieving stable and well-anchored inflation expectations. In pursuing these goals, a key measure policymakers often focus on is core inflation; this may seem surprising, since core inflation excludes energy prices, among other things.

unknown authors

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are thedriven by the world crude oil price rather than by exchange-how consumers think about oil prices and price expectations,

Scott, K. Rebecca

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has severely impacted diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast. Diesel fuel is bascially the same product as home heating oil. The primary difference is that diesel has a lower sulfur content. When heating oil is in short supply, low sulfur diesel fuel can be diverted to heating oil supply. Thus, diesel fuel prices rise with heating heating oil prices. Retail diesel fuel prices nationally, along with those of most other petroleum prices, increased steadily through most of 1999. But prices in the Northeast jumped dramatically in the third week of January. Diesel fuel prices in New England rose nearly 68 cents per gallon, or 47 percent, between January 17 and February 7. While EIA does not have

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Slide 2 of 11 Notes: One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter’s market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through February 7, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Heating oil prices for East Coast consumers started this winter at just over $1 per gallon, but rising crude oil prices drove them up nearly 21 cents per gallon through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude oil markets, magnified by a regional shortfall of

42

Natural Gas Has Been The Most Volatile Of Energy Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Price volatility in the natural gas market generally exceeds volatility in markets for other energy as well as other commodity markets. In fact, ...

43

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger, RyanAGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger, Ryanwake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger, RyanAGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger, Ryanof unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has severely impacted diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast. Retail diesel price data are available sooner than residential heating oil data. This graph shows that diesel prices turned the corner sometime after February 7 and are heading down. Retail diesel fuel prices nationally, along with those of most other petroleum prices, increased steadily through most of 1999. Prices jumped dramatically (by over 11 cents per gallon) in the third week of January, and rose 2 or more cents a week through February 7. The increases were much more rapid in the Northeast. From January 17 through February 7, diesel fuel prices in New England rose nearly 68 cents per gallon, or 47 percent. Prices in the Mid-Atlantic region rose about 58

46

Oil Prices and Long-Run Risk.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide anexcellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low (more)

READY, ROBERT

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Winter Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Residential heating oil prices reflect a similar pattern to that shown in spot prices. However, like other retail petroleum prices, they tend to lag changes in wholesale prices in both directions, with the result that they don't rise as rapidly or as much, but they take longer to recede. This chart shows the residential heating oil prices collected under the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP), which only runs during the heating season, from October through March. The spike in New York Harbor spot prices last winter carried through to residential prices throughout New England and the Central Atlantic states. Though the spike actually lasted only a few weeks, residential prices ended the heating season well above where they had started.

48

California Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

California Crude Oil Prices 6/2/98. Click here to start. Table of Contents. California Crude Oil Prices. CA Crude Oil Price History. World Petroleum Supply/Demand Balance

49

Residential Heating Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly.

50

Removal of volatile materials from forepump oil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method of clearing condensable vapors from forepump oil is described. Air is bubbled though the oil reservoir removing volatile material from the oil and allowing continuous pumping of materials by non?vented pumps.

Paul P. Nicole

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production Karl Pinnoy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

improvements in GDP per unit of energy use. However, for those series, where oil price volatility is signi one would expect, based on trend improvements in GDP per unit of energy use. However, for those series, P. and L. Kilian (2009). "How Sensitive Are Consumer Expenditures to Retail Energy Prices

Maurer, Frank

52

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings Hongwei Dong, Ph.D. Candidate John D. Hunt, Professor John Gliebe, Assistant Professor #12;Framework Oil-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

Bertini, Robert L.

53

Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 Notes: This graph illustrates how crude oil explains much of the large movements in gasoline prices that we have seen over time -- such as during the Gulf War at the end of 1990,...

54

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

month of loading, the month of landing, or sometime between those events. Prices for crude oil can be determined at a time other than the acquisition date. See the Explanatory...

55

Oil price; oil demand shocks; oil supply shocks; dynamic effects.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Using a newly developed measure of global real economic activity, a structural decomposition of the real price of crude oil in four components is proposed: oil supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries; other oil supply shocks; aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities; and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. The latter shock is designed to capture shifts in the price of oil driven by higher precautionary demand associated with fears about future oil supplies. The paper quantifies the magnitude and timing of these shocks, their dynamic effects on the real price of oil and their relative importance in determining the real price of oil during 1975-2005. The analysis sheds light on the origin of the observed fluctuations in oil prices, in particular during oil price shocks. For example, it helps gauge the relative importance of these shocks in the build-up of the real price of crude oil since the late 1990s. Distinguishing between the sources of higher oil prices is shown to be crucial in assessing the effect of higher oil prices on U.S. real GDP and CPI inflation, suggesting that policies aimed at dealing with higher oil prices must take careful account of the origins of higher oil prices. The paper also quantifies the extent to which the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. since the mid-1970s has been driven by the external economic shocks driving the real price of oil as opposed to domestic economic factors and policies. Key words: JEL:

Lutz Kilian

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, andWorld Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, andProduction of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids, and Re?

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline, NBER Working Paper.2006. Chinas Growing Demand for Oil and Its Impact on U.S.and Income on Energy and Oil Demand, Energy Journal 23(1),

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Price and volatility relationships in the Australian electricity market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis presents a collection of papers that has been published, accepted or submitted for publication. They assess price, volatility and market relationships in the (more)

Higgs, Helen

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Analysis of Price Volatility in Natural Gas Markets  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This article presents an analysis of price volatility in the spot natural gas market, with particular emphasis on the Henry Hub in Louisiana.

Erin Mastrangelo

2007-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

60

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5. Monthly oil production for Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait, inday. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq Kuwait Figure 6.Arabia PRODUCTION QUOTA Iran PRODUCTION QUOTA Venezuela

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Recent empirical studies reveal that the oil price-output relationship is weakening in the US. After mid 1980s, observed oil price-output correlation is less negative, and output reduction in response to oil price rise is more moderate than before. To see the reason, we develop a DSGE model where oil price and US output are endogenously determined by the exogenous movements of US TFP and the oil supply. Maintaining model specication the same for pre-mid-80s and post-mid-80s, the model replicates the actual paths of oil price and output well, and yields the weakening eect of oil price. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that emphasis on the changes in the economic structures, we found that what brings the weakening in the oil price-output relationship are the two changes associated with the way the exogenous variables evolved over the periods. First, oil supply variation has become moderate in recent years. Second, oil supply shortage is no longer followed by a large decline in TFP. We show that less volatile oil supply variation results in less negative oil price-output correlations, and a smaller TFP decline during oil supply shortfall implies a smaller output decline during oil price increases.

Naohisa Hirakata; Nao Sudo Y; Anton Braun; Jordi Gal; Simon Gilchrist; Francois Gourio

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

well below unity accounts for the broad trends we see in the share of oil purchases in totalWells. Middle panel: percent of U.S. total crude oil

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to a negative storage cost for oil in the form of a bene?tin levels. oil for more than your costs, that is, if P t+1 QSaudi oil, and M S the Saudis marginal cost of production.

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Distillate and Spot Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: This slide shows the strong influence crude oil prices have on retail distillate prices. The price for distillate fuel oil tracks the crude price increases seen in 1996 and the subsequent fall in 1997 and 1998. Distillate prices have also followed crude oil prices up since the beginning of 1999. Actual data show heating oil prices on the East Coast in June at $1.20 per gallon, up 39 cents over last June. However, if heating oil prices are following diesel, they may be up another 5 cents in August. That would put heating oil prices about 40 cents over last August prices. Crude oil prices are only up about 25 cents in August over year ago levels. The extra 15 cents represents improved refiner margins due in part to the very low distillate inventory level.

65

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1991. A Comparison of Petroleum Futures versus Spot PricesFutures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oiland Its Impact on U.S. Petroleum Markets. Dahl, Carol and

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

disruptions, and the peak in U.S. oil production account foroil increased 81.1% (logarithmically) between January 1979 and the peak

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

California Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... of different quality crudes vary over time based on the value the market places on such quality attributes. A heavy crude oil has more heavy, ...

68

Oil Price Decline Started a Year Ago  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

are generally the product of several influences. Because gasoline is refined from crude oil, of course, the price of crude is the single biggest determinant of gasoline prices....

69

EIA projects record winter household heating oil prices in the ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home; Browse by Tag; Most Popular Tags. electricity; oil/petroleum; liquid fuels; natural gas; prices; states; ... Heating oil prices largely reflect crude oil prices.

70

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we ...

71

First Factor Impacting Distillate Prices: Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Notes: World oil prices have tripled from their low point in December 1998 to August this year, pulling product prices up as well. But crude prices are expected to show a gradual decline as increased oil production from OPEC and others enters the world oil market. We won't likely see much decline this year, however, as prices are expected to end the year at about $30 per barrel. The average price of WTI was almost $30 per barrel in March, but dropped to $26 in April as the market responded to the additional OPEC production. However, prices strengthened again, averaging almost $32 in June, $30 in July, and $31 in August. The continued increases in crude oil prices indicate buyers are having trouble finding crude oil, bidding higher prices to obtain the barrels available.

72

Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

crude oil price (represented by the average price paid by U.S. refiners for foreign crude oil) in 2000 is estimated by EIA at 27.86 per barrel. By comparison, the peak annual...

73

Distillate Prices Increasing With Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 Notes: This slide shows the strong influence crude oil prices have on retail distillate prices. Distillate tracks the crude price increases seen in 1996 and the subsequent fall...

74

Oil Price and the Dollar Virginie Coudert  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil Price and the Dollar Virginie Coudert , Val´erie Mignon , Alexis Penot§ 6th April 2005 Abstract The aim of this paper is to test whether a stable long-term relationship exists between oil prices and causality study between the two variables. Our results indicate that causality runs from oil prices

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

75

OIL PRICES AND LONG-RUN RISK  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987- 2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped

Robert Ready; Robert Clayton Ready; Robert Clayton Ready; Amir Yaron

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Stock market volatility and price discovery : three essays on the effect of macroeconomic information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Simple Microstructure Model of Price Determination . . 3.11Stock Market Volatility and Price Discovery: Three Essays onConstruction Spending PRICES CPI MONETARY POLICY FFR Source:

Rangel, Jose Gonzalo

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

New York Home Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 of 15 5 of 15 Notes: The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a little slower and spread out over time compared to spot prices. Wholesale prices increased over 50 cents from January 17 to January 24, while retail increased 44 cents in New York. Diesel prices are showing a similar pattern to residential home heating oil prices, and are indicating that home heating oil prices may not have peaked yet, although spot prices are dropping. Diesel prices in New England and the Mid-Atlantic increased 30-40 cents January 24 over the prior week, and another 13-15 cents January 31. Spot prices plummeted January 31, closing at 82 cents per gallon, indicating the worst part of the crisis may be over, but it is still a

78

Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 of 5 5 of 5 Notes: March began with gasoline spot prices showing large increases over crude oil. Spot prices were nearly 20 cents per gallon over the already high crude oil prices, when normally the spread would be half that size. This spread was comparable to the spread seen in August 1997 when high demand, low stocks, and some refinery problems cause prices to surge. By the end of March the spread had fallen to about 16 cents per gallon, and by mid April was at about 11 cents per gallon as the inventory situation improved. Crude oil prices have also been falling, pulling gasoline spot prices down. Retail prices, which lag behind changes in the spot market, are turning down also. Regular gasoline prices peaked the week of March 20 at $1.53 and fell to $1.48 the week of April 10.

79

Price Volatility In - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The principal drivers behind this volatility are supply and demand fundamentals, which include the weather, storage activities, and the perception of market conditions.

80

U.S. Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winter’s market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices for the last four winters, with this year’s prices shown through January 24, the most recent EIA data available. The general level of heating oil prices each year is largely a function of crude oil prices, and the price range over the course of the heating season is typically about 10 cents per gallon. Exceptions occur in unusual circumstances, such as very cold weather, large changes in crude oil prices, or supply problems. Although heating oil prices for consumers started this winter at similar levels to those in 1997, they already rose nearly 20 cents per gallon through mid-January. With the continuing upward pressure from crude

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Against Volatile Natural Gas Prices Mark Bolinger, Ryanwake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility duringyears) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e. , what

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Against Volatile Natural Gas Prices Mark Bolinger, Ryanof unprecedented natural gas price volatility during thethe cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gas Pricing by Regulated Natural Gas Utilities, Docket No.a Hedge Against Volatile Natural Gas Prices Mark Bolinger,wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gas Pricing by Regulated Natural Gas Utilities, Docket No.A HEDGE AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger,A HEDGE AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger,

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: With the worst of the heating season (October-March) now behind us, we can be fairly confident that retail heating oil prices have seen their seasonal peak. Relatively mild weather and a softening of crude oil prices have helped ease heating oil prices. Spot heating oil prices recently reached their lowest levels in over six months. Because of relatively balmy weather in the Northeast in January and February, heating oil stock levels have stabilized. Furthermore, heating oil production has been unusually robust, running several hundred thousand barrels per day over last year's pace. Currently, EIA expects winter prices to average around $1.41, which is quite high in historical terms. The national average price in December 2000 was 44 cents per gallon above the December 1999 price. For February

86

The effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The traditional view of oil price movements is that they represent exogenous changes in the supply of oil. In that case, oil price increases will (more)

Embergenov, Bakhitbay

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Higher oil prices: Can OPEC raise prices by cutting production  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

OPEC's ability to raise prices is evaluated with a model that projects the supply and demand. As part of the model, a new methodology to forecast for the rate of production by non-OPEC nations is developed. A literature review of techniques for estimating oil supply and annual rates of production indicates a new methodology is needed. The new technique incorporates the geological, engineering, and economic aspects of the oil industry by synthesizing curve fitting and econometric techniques. It is used to analyze data for eight regions for non-OPEC oil production: the lower 48 states, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, non-OPEC South America, Western Europe, non-OPEC Africa, and non-OPEC Asia. OPEC's ability to raise prices is examined by tracking the percentage oil US oil demand supplied by imports, the portion of oil demand in Western Europe supplied by local production, the percentage of WOCA oil demand supplied by OPEC and Real OPEC revenues. Results of the model indicate that OPEC can raise oil prices in the early 1990s. OPEC can raise and sustain oil prices near $25 (1982 dollars). Higher oil prices ($35) are not sustainable before 2000 because reduced demand and increased non-OPEC production shrink OPEC revenues below acceptable levels. After 2000, $35 prices are sustainable.

Kaufmann, R.K.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: Retail distillate prices follow the spot distillate markets, and crude oil prices have been the main driver behind distillate spot price increases until recently. Crude oil rose about 36 cents per gallon from its low point in mid February 1999 to the middle of January 2000. Over this same time period, New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents per gallon, reflecting both the crude price rise and a return to a more usual seasonal spread over the price of crude oil. The week ending January 21, heating oil spot prices in the Northeast spiked dramatically to record levels, closing on Friday at $1.26 per gallon -- up 50 cents from the prior week. Gulf Coast prices were not spiking, but were probably pulled slightly higher as the New York Harbor market began to

89

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we now expect prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to peak at $1.52 per gallon in January. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. This winter's expected peak price would be the highest on record in nominal terms, eclipsing the high set in February 2000. However, in real (constant dollar) terms, both of these prices remain well below the peak reached in March 1981, when the average residential heating oil price was $1.29 per gallon, equivalent to over $2.50 per gallon today.

90

Summary Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate price bands around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to trade. The Energy Information Administrations (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publishes base case projections for a variety of energy prices that go out 12 to 24 months (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year). EIA has recognized that all price forecasts are highly uncertain and has described the uncertainty by identifying the market factors that may significantly move prices away from their expected paths, such as economic growth, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, geo-political events, and hurricanes.

unknown authors

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Asymptotic Behavior of the Stock Price Distribution Density and Implied Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of the squared volatility process and the density of the stock price process in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model are obtained.

Gulisashvili, Archil, E-mail: guli@math.ohiou.ed [Ohio University, Department of Mathematics (United States); Stein, Elias M., E-mail: stein@math.princeton.ed [Princeton University, Department of Mathematics (United States)

2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

92

Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly February 2012 42 Table 18. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Continued

93

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

With the worst of the heating season (October-March) now behind us, we can be fairly confident that retail heating oil prices have seen their seasonal ...

94

Oil prices in a new light  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factual figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.

Fesharaki, F. (East-West Center, Honolulu, HI (United States))

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Volatile coal prices reflect supply, demand uncertainties  

SciTech Connect

Coal mine owners and investors say that supply and demand are now finally in balance. But coal consumers find that both spot tonnage and new contract coal come at a much higher price.

Ryan, M.

2004-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

96

Low Stocks Set Stage for Price Volatility  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

left heating oil markets in a vulnerable position. Stocks began the winter of 199900 well above average. They deteriorated somewhat as low margins kept refiners from continuing...

97

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we now expect prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to peak at about $1.52 per gallon in January. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. This winter's expected peak price would be the highest on record in nominal terms, eclipsing the high set in February 2000. However, in real (constant dollar) terms, both of these prices remain well below the peak reached in March 1981, when the average residential heating oil price was $1.29 per gallon, equivalent to over $2.50 per gallon today.

98

Oil futures prices in a production economy with investment constraints  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We document a new stylized fact regarding the term structure of futures volatility. We show that the relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and ...

Kogan, Leonid

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Crude Oil Prices Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

100

High heating oil prices discourage heating oil supply contracts ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA's Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook expects the U.S. home heating oil price will average $3.71 per gallon for the season, ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

OIL PRICES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract Oil prices, associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years, have been rising in recent months. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a rise in oil prices depend upon the policy response of the monetary authorities. They can ameliorate the short term impacts on output, but only at the cost of higher inflation. In the short term the size and distribution of output effects from an increase in oil prices depends on the intensity of oil use in production and on the speed at which oil producers spend their revenue. In the medium term higher oil prices change the terms of trade between the OECD and the rest of the world and hence reduce the equilibrium level of output in the OECD. In this paper we first discuss oil market developments and survey previous studies on the impacts of increases in oil prices. We then use our model, NiGEM, to evaluate the impact of temporary and permanent oil price increases on the world economy under various policy responses, and also analyse the impact of a decline in the speed of oil revenue recycling. 1 This paper has benefited from inputs from a number of colleagues at the Institute, and we would like to thank

Ray Barrell; Olga Pomerantz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? The cost of crude oil is a major component in the price of diesel fuel, gasoline, and heating oil.

103

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? - FAQ ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? The cost of crude oil is a major component in the price of diesel fuel, gasoline, and heating oil.

104

Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Monitoring  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What drives crude oil prices? What drives crude oil prices? November 13, 2013 | Washington, DC An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events November 13, 2013 2 price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average) Low spare capacity Iraq invades Kuwait Saudis abandon swing producer role Iran-Iraq War Iranian revolution Arab Oil Embargo Asian financial crisis U.S. spare capacity exhausted Global financial collapse 9-11 attacks OPEC cuts targets 1.7 mmbpd OPEC cuts targets 4.2 mmbpd Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil

105

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Secretary of Energy Samuel W....

106

New York Home Heating Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a ...

107

Oil price shocks: Testing a macroeconomic model  

SciTech Connect

The main research objective was to answer the following question: Will Consumer Price Index forecast models utilizing computer oil-consumption ratios have better predictive capability as indicated by lower numerical differences from actual results than a model utilizing oil prices as the energy-related variable Multiple linear regressions were run on the components of the United States CPI to reduce them to a kernel set with meaningful predictive capability. New linear regressions were run with this kernel set and crude oil prices during the 1973 to 1984 time period. Crude oil prices were rationalized with a 1972 = 100 based index of GNP base petroleum consumption, the index of net energy imports, and the index of petroleum imports to create new oil substitute constructs to be used in multiple regressions with the CPI. Predictions obtained from the model were compared with actual results in the 1985-1987 time period to determine which model version showed the greatest predictive power. Results of the model tests show that oil prices are strongly related to the CPI, but neither the use of oil prices or the index of GNP-based petroleum consumption produced results that closely predict future prices.

Williams, D.D.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

What's Driving Oil Prices? James L. Smith  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

$60 $80 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Real Price ($2005) #12;2 Hubbert's Curve (Peak Oil) PEAK OIL QUIZ Instructions: With books closed and eyes on your own paper, please mark the single best answer. 1. Peak oil production indicates: a) Half gone. b) Running out. c) Starting out. d) None

O'Donnell, Tom

109

WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Expected To Remain Relatively High Through At  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: As we just saw, one of the primary factors impacting gasoline price is the crude oil price. This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $36 per barrel in November briefly as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. Crude oil prices are expected to be about $30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. With the EIA forecast for crude prices staying high this year,

110

STEO January 2013 - world oil prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Gap between U.S. and world oil prices to be cut by more than Gap between U.S. and world oil prices to be cut by more than half over next two years The current wide price gap between a key U.S. and a world benchmark crude oil is expected to narrow significantly over the next two years. The spot price for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil, also known as WTI , averaged $94 a barrel in 2012. That's $18 less than North Sea Brent oil, which is a global benchmark crude that had an average price of $112 last year. The new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the price gap between the two crude oils to shrink to $16 a barrel this year and then to $8 in 2014. That's when WTI would average $91 a barrel and Brent would be at $99. The smaller price gap will result from new pipelines coming on line that will lower the cost of

111

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

of the first signals in deciphering what is happening in the market. This chart shows propane prices (both spot and retail) as well as WTI. As you can see, most prices track the...

112

Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

then pay/receive the real- time price for deviations fromI assume that the retail real-time prices customers face arewould likely dampen real-time price volatility and the

Borenstein, Severin

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

A new era for oil prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Since 2003 the international oil market has been moving away from the previous 20-year equilibrium in which prices fluctuated around $25/bbl (in today's dollars). The single most important reason is that growing demand has ...

Mitchell, John V.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Summary Statistics Table 1. Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

can be the month of loading, the month of landing, or sometime between those events. Prices for crude oil can be determined at a time other than the acquisition date. See the...

115

Microsoft Word - high-oil-price.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short Term Energy Outlook Short Term Energy Outlook 1 STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged close to $20 per barrel, before plunging to almost $10 per barrel in late 1998 as a result of the Asian financial crisis slowing demand growth while extra supply from Iraq was entering the market for the first time since the Gulf War. Subsequently, as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers more closely adhered to a coordinated production quota and reduced output, crude oil prices not only recovered, but increased to about $30 per barrel as demand grew as Asian economies recovered. The most recent increase in crude oil prices began in 2004, when they almost doubled from 2003 levels, rising from about $30 per barrel at the end

116

The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

Ramberg, David J.

117

Crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products prices all fell ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

So oil prices averaged over the year decreased sharply while year-end price ... Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1972-2009

118

Oil price, mean reversion and zone readjustments  

SciTech Connect

Observing OPEC`s short-term price-output ceiling behavior during the late 1980s and 1990s, one can conclude that it attempts to stabilize the market price within a range of its announced target price by controlling the output ceiling. If the price moves within four to five dollars below the target price, it usually reduces the output ceiling and assigns new quotas to its member countries to keep the price close to the target price. In reality, OPEC established a band for the market price positioned round the target price by basically choosing suitable upper and lower limits for the output or, at least in soft markets, it places tolerance zone below the target price in order to restrict the discrepancy between the market price and the target price. The lower limit is particularly needed because it sets a price floor and ensures that the market price stays above the significantly lower marginal cost of oil production. If the limits of these zones are backed by a perfectly credible intervention policy, they can generate an expectations process that should turn the market prices around even before any intervention takes place. While OPEC in some sense observes the target zones for its prices, those zones are neither well defined nor vigorously defended. It can not always or may not be willing to maintain the price within the limits of the desired zone by cutting the output ceiling; it must sometimes readjust the target price and output ceiling, and thus create a new target zone to reflect the market`s new fundamentals. This is particularly true now because OPEC is losing market share to the other oil producers and is contemplating to shift the current band. Actual readjustments in the target price can be so large, as in 1980 and 1985, that the newmarket price must jump as well. They can occur when both the market price is near the limits of the band as well as when it is inside the band but still further away from those limits.

Hammoudeh, S. [Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States)

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

mid-January, 2000. WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per mid-January, 2000. WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from its low point in mid February 1999 to January 17, 2000. Over this same time period, New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents per gallon, reflecting both the crude price rise and the beginning of a return to a more usual seasonal spread over the price of crude oil. The week ending January 21, distillate spot prices in the Northeast spiked dramatically to record levels, closing on Friday at $1.26 per gallon -- up 50 cents from the prior week. Gulf Coast prices were not spiking, but were probably pulled higher as the New York Harbor market began to draw on product from other areas. They closed at 83 cents per gallon, an increase of 11 cents from the prior Friday. Crude oil had risen about 4 cents from

120

QUANTIFYING THE VALUE THAT WIND POWER PROVIDES AS A HEDGE AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 LBNL-50484 QUANTIFYING THE VALUE THAT WIND POWER PROVIDES AS A HEDGE AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES Mark Bolinger, Ryan Wiser, and William Golove Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001 ­ have mostly been qualitative in nature

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Last summer's low stocks and transition to Phase 2 RFG added price pressure over and above the already high crude price pressure on gasoline. As we ended last winter, gasoline inventories were low, and the spread between spot prices and crude oil were higher than typical as a result. Inventories did not recover and the spread remained higher than average through most of the summer. In November and December, as gasoline demand eased, prices relaxed and spreads returned to average levels -- only to rebound again in January and February as refineries began to undergo maintenance and the market watched the already low stock cushion erode further. This February, spreads are higher than last year -- averaging 14 cents so far. This is about twice what we would typically see this time of

122

Low Distillate Stocks Set Stage for Price Volatility  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with the recent rise in crude oil prices, low stocks of Along with the recent rise in crude oil prices, low stocks of distillate fuels left markets in a vulnerable position. As we went into our two biggest distillate demand months, January and February, U.S. distillate stocks were very low -- particularly on the East and Gulf Coasts. The East Coast is the primary heating oil region, and it depends heavily on production from the Gulf Coast as well. Distillate stocks in the U.S. and Europe were in surplus supply as recently as October, but distillate stocks did not build as they usually do during the late fall, and declined more sharply than usual in December. December stocks closed well below the normal range. The unusual drawdown, in contrast to the more normal building pattern, resulted in distillate inventory levels about 3 million barrels lower than the very low

123

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2012a) to a labour exporting country that receives large inows of external income the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers from major oil exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic ination rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper conrms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordans output volatility can be associated with uctuations in net income received from abroad (arising from oil price shocks). External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.

Kamiar Mohaddes A; Mehdi Raissi B

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Residential heating oil prices increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

last week to 3.92 per gallon. That's down 11 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for...

125

Residential heating oil prices increase  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

last week to 3.96 per gallon. That's down 2.6 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for...

126

Petroleum Outlook:.More Volatility?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook: More Volatility? Outlook: More Volatility? 3/19/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility? Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001 Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001 Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Reflect Product Market-Based Volatility U.S. Distillate Inventories Distillate Winter Demand Stronger Than Temperatures Would Imply High Production Offset Lack of Inventory High Production Came From High Yields & High Inputs High Margins Bring High Imports Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer Gasoline Volatility

127

Perturbation Expansion for Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We fit the volatility fluctuations of the S&P 500 index well by a Chi distribution, and the distribution of log-returns by a corresponding superposition of Gaussian distributions. The Fourier transform of this is, remarkably, of the Tsallis type. An option pricing formula is derived from the same superposition of Black-Scholes expressions. An explicit analytic formula is deduced from a perturbation expansion around a Black-Scholes formula with the mean volatility. The expansion has two parts. The first takes into account the non-Gaussian character of the stock-fluctuations and is organized by powers of the excess kurtosis, the second is contract based, and is organized by the moments of moneyness of the option. With this expansion we show that for the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 option data, a Delta-hedging strategy is close to being optimal.

Jizba, Petr; Haener, Patrick

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Perturbation Expansion for Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We fit the volatility fluctuations of the S&P 500 index well by a Chi distribution, and the distribution of log-returns by a corresponding superposition of Gaussian distributions. The Fourier transform of this is, remarkably, of the Tsallis type. An option pricing formula is derived from the same superposition of Black-Scholes expressions. An explicit analytic formula is deduced from a perturbation expansion around a Black-Scholes formula with the mean volatility. The expansion has two parts. The first takes into account the non-Gaussian character of the stock-fluctuations and is organized by powers of the excess kurtosis, the second is contract based, and is organized by the moments of moneyness of the option. With this expansion we show that for the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 option data, a Delta-hedging strategy is close to being optimal.

Petr Jizba; Hagen Kleinert; Patrick Haener

2007-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

129

OPEC Production Changes Impacted World Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

OPEC has been a major factor behind the recent swing in crude oil prices. As prices fell in 1997 and 1998, OPEC gradually removed supply from the market.

130

Increases in oil prices affect broader measures of inflation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Over the past ten years, the Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U) ... oil price increases boost freight transportation costsfor example, ...

131

Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we have raised expected peak prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to $1.55 per gallon (January) compared to $1.43 per gallon in last month's projections. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph. Primary distillate inventories in the United States failed to rise significantly in November despite some speculation that previous distributions into secondary and tertiary storage would back up burgeoning production and import volumes into primary storage that month. Average

132

Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

Wilson, WIlliam; Aickelin, Uwe

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

recently. Crude oil rose about 17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of the latest "up cycle" in mid February 1999 to mid-January, 2000. Over this same time...

134

Residential heating oil prices increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

ago to 3.98 per gallon. That's up 6-tenths of a penny from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil...

135

A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the variables influencing the price and volatility of this energy ...

Fazzio, Thomas J. (Thomas Joseph)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

An Analysis of Price Volatility in Natural Gas Markets  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Market prices respond to shifts in supply and demand, and the degree of price response relates to the price elasticity of both. Natural gas prices have been particularly

137

Ohio Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Wholesale Heating Oil : Residential ... Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from ... 3/20/2013: Next ...

138

The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 2 Introduction Economic theory suggests that natural gas and crude oil prices should be related ...

139

WORKING PAPER SERIESFEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES Trading Institutions and Price Discovery: The Cash and Futures Markets for Crude Oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient. JEL classification: G130, G140 Key words: crude oil, futures, posted price, experiments, experimental finance, price discovery, information aggregation

Albert Ballinger; Gerald P. Dwyer; Ann B. Gillette; Albert Ballinger; Gerald P. Dwyer; Ann B. Gillette

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Increases in oil prices affect broader measures of inflation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

While a barrel of light sweet crude oil may never make it onto the shopping list of the typical U.S. consumer, the effects of world oil price hikes on consumer prices ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #579: July 13, 2009 Oil Price...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

9: July 13, 2009 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2008 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact 579: July 13, 2009 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2008...

142

Why Are Oil Prices So High? - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Why Are Oil Prices So High? 1 Crude oil prices have increased dramatically in recent ... will be about 10 million barrels below the 5 ?year average by the end of this

143

Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

N E 2 011 by Marco J. Lombardi and Ine Van Robays DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 13 4 6 J U N E 2011 DO FINANCIAL...

144

The Stock Market Reaction to Oil Price Changes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I explore the reaction of the stock market as a whole and of different industries to daily oil price changes. I find that the direction and magnitude of the market?s reaction to oil price changes depend on the magnitude of the price changes. Oil price changes most likely caused by supply shocks have a negative impact while oil price changes most likely caused by shifts in aggregate demand have a positive impact on the same day market returns. In addition to the returns of oil-intensive industries, returns of industries that do not use oil to any significant extent are also sensitive to oil price changes. Finally, I show that both the cost-side dependence and demand-side dependence on oil are important in explaining the sensitivity of industry returns to oil price changes. I am indebted to Louis Ederington. I am grateful for the helpful comments received from Chitru Fernando,

Sridhar Gogineni

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration / Petroleum Marketing Annual 1996 45. Created Date:

146

World Oil Price, 1970-2020  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

World Oil Price, 1970-2020 World Oil Price, 1970-2020 (1999 dollars per barrel) 17.09 50- 45 - 40 - I Nominal dollars 35- 1995 _2020 15 - J 9, AE02000 5- 10 - HHistory Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 35AS0570 ^a .i^ Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 30- History Projections 25 - 20 - 20~ Consumption _ Net imports 15 - Domestic supply . _ 5- 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 '-'e^~~~ u,~~ ~35AS0570 ., te Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 20- History Projections 15- XTransportation 10 Industrial Eect i city gener - 5- 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 .n 35AS0570 r-N Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2020 (million barrels per day) 8 History Projections 6- Lower 48 conventional 4- Lower 48 offshore 2- lasa k r 0 § ^.^^^r"_ "^^"' ^Lower 48 EOR

147

Oil prices and government bond risk premiums Herv Alexandre*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices and government bond risk premiums By Hervé Alexandre*º Antonin de Benoist * Abstract : This article analyses the impact of oil price on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oil price on government bond risk premiums. We develop

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

148

November 2010The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated. Yet at times in the past, and very powerfully in the last two years, many voices have noted that the two price series appear to have decoupled. We explore the apparent contradiction between these two views. We find that recognition of the statistical fact of cointegration needs to be tempered with two additional points. First, there is an enormous amount of unexplained volatility in natural gas prices at short horizons. Hence, any simple formulaic relationship between the prices will leave a large portion of the natural gas price unexplained. Second, the cointegrating relationship does not appear to be stable through time. The prices may be tied, but the relationship can shift dramatically over time. Therefore, although the two price series may be cointegrated, the confidence intervals for both short and long time horizons are large.

David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons; David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007-Low World Oil Price Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections (1990-2030) Low World Oil Price Case Projections (1990-2030) International Energy Outlook 2007 Low World Oil Price Projections Tables (1990-2030) Formats Table Data Titles (1 to 12 complete) Low World Oil Price Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Low World Oil Price Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table E1 World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case Table E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table E2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

150

Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers, Asymmetries and Hedging in Major Oil Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets.

Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer; Roengchai Tansuchat; Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Role of speculation in short-term US oil crude prices and gasoline price variability of the 2000s and the role of monetary policy price stability interventions.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? The objectives of this study were to analyze the short-run impact of futures contract prices on crude oil prices, the impact of crude oil (more)

Norris, Leah C.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Information Center

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Import policy effects on the optimal oil price  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A steady increase in oil imports leaves oil importing countries increasingly vulnerable tofuture oil price shocks. Using a variation of the U.S. EIA`s oil market simulation model, equilibria displaying multiple price shocks is derived endogenously as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of OPEC. Here we investigate the effects that an oil import tariff and a petroleum stock release policy may have on an OPEC optimal price path. It is shown that while both policies can reduce the magnitude of future price shocks neither may be politically or technically feasible. 21 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

Suranovic, S.M. [George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

154

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, as director of the National Economic Council, stated that "if energy prices will trend higher, you invest one, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend, they ...nd way; if energy prices will be lower, you invest a di¤erent way. But if you don't know what prices

Garousi, Vahid

155

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes 7 key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

2011-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

156

Long-run models of oil stock prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The identification of the forces that drive oil stock prices is extremely important given the size of the Oil & Gas industry and its links with the energy sector and the environment. In the next decade oil companies will have to deal with international ... Keywords: C32, Cointegration, Energy, Environment, Hydrocarbon fuels, L71, Non-renewable resources, Oil companies, Oil stock prices, Q30, Q40, Vector error correction models

Alessandro Lanza; Matteo Manera; Margherita Grasso; Massimo Giovannini

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

One of the first places where consumers are feeling the impact of this winters market pressures is in home heating oil prices. This chart shows prices through ...

158

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices are one of the first signals in deciphering what is happening in the market. This chart shows propane prices (both spot and retail) as well as spot heating oil ...

159

Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand.2007. Consumer demand un- der price uncertainty: Empirical

Scott, K. Rebecca

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

The effects of oil prices and other economic indicators on housing prices in Calgary, Canada  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis aims to answer: (1) to what extent can oil prices and other economic indicators predict the changes in housing prices and rent in the Calgary single family housing market and (2) to determine what the lag time ...

Padilla, Mercedes A. (Mercedes Angeles)

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Kansas Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 11/1/2013: Next Release Date: 12/2/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

163

Wyoming Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

96.51: 97.39-= No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

164

North Dakota Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 1/2/2014: Next Release Date: 2/3/2014: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

165

2012 Brief: Coal and mid-continent crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal and mid-continent crude oil (WTI) led energy commodity price declines in 2012. Natural gas was the only key energy commodity with a significant ...

166

Texas Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

167

Price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil narrowing - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The Brent-WTI spread, the difference between the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oils, has narrowed considerably over the past several months.

168

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

5 U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly October 2013 Table 1. Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Year Month Domestic

169

STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high?  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short Term Energy Outlook 1 STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI ...

170

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Note: Confidence intervals for the ...

171

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Overview. As part of its Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, EIA is assessing the various factors that may influence oil prices physical market factors as ...

172

Table 1. Crude Oil Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

5 U.S. Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Marketing Monthly February 2012 Table 1. Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) Year Month Domestic

173

CRUDE OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This study uses ordinary least squares estimation to test multivariate models in order to find out whether or not crude oil price shocks are contractionary (more)

Hernandez, Jordan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000. Projections

175

Colorado Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

176

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE,? JOHN ZYREN,?? AND JOANNE SHORE?? Abstract This paper presents a short ...

177

Minnesota Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

178

North Carolina Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

179

Virginia Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

180

Massachusetts Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Wisconsin Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... national and regional residential heating oil and propane prices from October 2009 to March 2013 have been revised since they were first published.

182

Michigan Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

183

New Mexico Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 11/1/2013: Next Release Date: 12/2/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

184

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices? - FAQ ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices are determined by demand and supply in our market economy. Fuel demand is affected mainly by economic conditions, and for heating oil, the weather.

185

Energy Prices Note 4. Crude Oil Landed Costs.  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Prices Note 1. Crude Oil Refinery Acquisition Costs. Begin-ning with January 1981, refiner acquisition costs of crude oil are from data collected on U.S ...

186

Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

WTI crude oil price rose about $17 per barrel or 40 cents per gallon from its low point in mid ... New York Harbor spot heating oil had risen about 42 cents ...

187

Connecticut Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... History; Residential Heating Oil: 3.967: 3.925: 3.945: 3.943: 3.943 ...

188

Maine Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... History; Residential Heating Oil: 3.569: 3.575: 3.559: 3.561: 3.559 ...

189

Perspective on Real Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

depicted as the average price refiners pay for imported oil, in inflation-adjusted terms. Since US refiners buy crude oil from so many different countries, This is a good...

190

Asymptotic expansion for pricing options for a mean-reverting asset with multiscale stochastic volatility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work investigates the valuation of options when the underlying asset follows a mean-reverting log-normal process with a stochastic volatility that is driven by two stochastic processes with one persistent factor and one fast mean-reverting factor. ... Keywords: Mean reversion, Multiscale asymptotic, Option pricing, Stochastic volatility

Mei Choi Chiu; Yu Wai Lo; Hoi Ying Wong

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

WO WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 1 3 4 6 / J U N E 2 011 by Marco J. Lombardi and Ine Van Robays DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 13 4 6 / J U N E 2011 DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? 1 by Marco J. Lombardi 2 and Ine Van Robays 3 1 This paper was initiated when the second author was with the European Central Bank. Without implicating, we would like to thank Bahattin Büyüksahin, Gert Peersman, Jaap Bos, Julio Carrillo, Lutz Kilian, Punnoose Jacob, Sandra Eickmeier and an anonymous referee for their useful comments and suggestions. 2 Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Mai, Germany; e-mail: marco.lombardi@ecb.europa.eu 3 Department of Financial Economics, Ghent University, Woodrow Wilsonplein 5D, B-9000 Gent,

192

Advances in Volatility Modeling for Energy Markets: Methods for Reproducing Volatility Clustering, Fat Tails, Smiles, and Smirks in Energy Price Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes research sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to develop a new model of energy price volatility. For many years, EPRI has worked with a flexible and tractable volatility model that successfully captures the term "structure of volatility," including the properties commonly referred to as "mean reversion" and "seasonality." However, that model does not capture random volatility, evidenced by volatility clustering, nor does it capture skewness and excess kurtosis i...

2011-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

193

Oil resources: the key to prosperity or to poverty? : Influence of oil price shocks on spending of oil revenues.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Abundant natural resources, in particular oil, play an important role in the economics of many countries. The oil price shocks that have been happening continuously (more)

Selivanova, Olga

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, hides, soybeans, natural rubber, hardlog, cotton, wool, iron ore, copper, nickel, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, soy oil, sun?ower oil, palm oil, coconut oil, gold, and crude oil. 4 This index can be seen to measure the bene?ts of diversifying the economy...

Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V.; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi

2011-01-26T23:59:59.000Z

195

World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

196

Multi-fractal Analysis of World Crude Oil Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to reveal the stylized facts of world crude oil prices, R/S (Rescaled Range Analysis) method is introduced in this paper. For illustration, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent daily crude oil prices are used in this paper. The calculated ...

Xiucheng Dong; Junchen Li; Jian Gao

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

RDI forecasts oil price increase impact on electric consumers  

SciTech Connect

According to a publication by Resource Data International, Inc. (RDI), Boulder, Colorado, the current oil price increases will effect electricity consumers nationwide. While the direct use of fuel oil and natural gas as boiler fuels is expected to decline with rising prices, the cost of alternative energy sources including coal, nuclear, and hydro are also expected to rise, RDI said.

Not Available

1990-10-25T23:59:59.000Z

198

Retail Product Prices Are Driven By Crude Oil  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Retail prices for both gasoline and diesel fuel have risen strongly over the past two years, driven mostly by the rise in world crude oil prices to their highest levels since the Persian Gulf War. Of course, there are a number of other significant factors that impact retail product prices, the most important of which is the supply/demand balance for each product. But the point of this slide is to show that generally speaking, as world crude oil prices rise and fall, so do retail product prices. Because of the critical importance of crude oil price levels, my presentation today will look first at global oil supply and demand, and then at the factors that differentiate the markets for each product. I'll also talk briefly about natural gas, and the impact that gas

199

Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S.Noureddine. 2002. World crude oil and natural gas: a demandelasticity of demand for crude oil, not gasoline. Results

Scott, K. Rebecca

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S. , iswith a dollar denominated oil price. References Blanchard

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

with, in September 2000, crude oil prices in the Unitedmonth forward price of crude oil peaked at $37.80. EnergyThe monthly U.S. imported crude oil price in November was a

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S. , isa dollar denominated oil price. References Blanchard O.J.

LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040 ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel) Reference High Oil Price Low Oil Price

204

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - High World Oil Price Case  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) International Energy Outlook 2007 High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables (1990-2030) Formats Data Table Titles (1 to 12 complete) High World Oil Price Case Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. High World Oil Price Case Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table D1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region Table D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table D2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel Table D2. World total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

205

Volatile oils and retrograde gases - What's the difference  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Part 1 showed that at reservoir conditions, volatile oils exhibit bubble points and retrograde gases exhibit dew points. The article contained a graph of initial producing gas-oil ratio plotted against concentration of heptanes plus in the fluid. This paper reproduces a portion of that graph with the data points indicating that the fluid had a dew point or a bubble point at reservoir conditions. The scatter in the data reflects the compositional differences among the fluids and the differences in surface separation facilities and conditions. In this graph, only three fluids have dew points and initial producing gas-oil ratios less than 3,200 scf/STB, and only one fluid reaches a bubble point above this value. Therefore, a value of 3,200 scf/STB appears to be a good cutoff between volatile oils and retrograde gases.

McCain, W.D. Jr. (S.A. Holditch and Associates, College Station, TX (United States)); Bridges, B. (Texas A M Univ., College Station, TX (United States))

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Fractality feature in oil price fluctuations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within a non-stationary process formulation. It is shown that, when returns are measured over intervals less than 10 days, the Probability Density Functions (PDFs) exhibit self-similarity and monoscaling, in contrast to the multifractal behavior of the PDFs at macro-scales (typically larger than one month). We find that the time evolution of the distributions are well fitted by a Levy distribution law at micro-scales. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer

Momeni, M; Talebi, K

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Propane Prices Influenced by Crude Oil and Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Propane prices have been high this year for several reasons. Propane usually follows crude oil prices more closely than natural gas prices. As crude oil prices rose beginning in 1999, propane has followed. In addition, some early cold weather this year put extra pressure on prices. However, more recently, the highly unusual surge in natural gas prices affected propane supply and drove propane prices up. Propane comes from two sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants. The very high natural gas prices made it more economic for refineries to use the propane they normally produce and sell than to buy natural gas. The gas processing plants found it more economic to leave propane in the natural gas streams than to extract it for sale separately.

208

Gas importers still resisting price parity with crude oil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The pricing of natural gas on a parity with crude oil has become an important issue in the international energy market. A prime example of the hostility that can arise over this issue is the ongoing argument between the US and Algeria over the price of SONATRACH's LNG exports to El Paso Co. Because LNG shipping and regasification costs add substantially to its delivered (c.i.f.) cost, price parity at the point of export (f.o.b.) would put LNG's price far above that of crude oil or natural gas. Other LNG exporters, such as Indonesia and Libya, seem to be adopting Algeria's pricing stance. Most European LNG customers believe that if f.o.b. price parity - or even some of the c.i.f. price-calculation methods - becomes the established formula, LNG will be priced out of many industrial markets. Without the big contracts from industry, existing LNG projects might not be economical.

Vielvoye, R.

1981-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

209

Low-Volatility Motor Oils. Development and Production  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

saturated hydrocarbons. Viscosity index. 1. >0.03. <90. 80 120. 2. ?0.03. ?90 ... GOST 2079988 does not set a volatility level for this oil, which is within the limits of .... Short Handbook of the Properties of Lubricating Materials and Fuels [

210

AEO Issues in Focus: Effects of different oil price paths - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The economics of unconventional liquids supply ... The Low Oil Price case assumes that world oil prices fall steadily after 2011 to about $50 per barrel in ...

211

Factors that affect the share price index of Taiwan's solar energy industrythe crude oil prices and industry scale.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This paper discusses the factors that affect the share price index of Taiwan solar power industry, crude oil prices and the size of the solar (more)

Deng, Yu-chi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

New York Home Heating Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a ...

213

The oil price and non-OPEC supplies  

SciTech Connect

The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries.

Seymour, A.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Low Distillate Stocks Set Stage for Price Volatility  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

This distillate price spike is a classic response to a local supply and demand imbalance that began as a result of low distillate stocks. Low distillate stocks in the ...

215

Low Distillate Stocks Set Stage for Price Volatility  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

areas for a time, requiring unusual movement of stock from other areas. As buyers search for product, they bid prices up rapidly, which attracts product, but the time lag can...

216

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

217

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

218

Interaction between crude oil price and Dow Jones Index on integrated oil and gas company.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The crude oil is one of the major energy resources in our lifetime and plays its crucial role in our economy. How the stock prices (more)

Houng, Chi-yao

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

PRICE SPECULATION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The price of crude oil in the U.S. had never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By 2006 it reached $70 per barrel, and in July 2008 it reached a peak of $145. By the end of 2008 it had plummeted to about $30 before increasing again, reaching about $110 in 2011. Are speculators to blame for at least part of the volatility and sharp run-ups in price? We clarify the potential and actual effects of speculators, and investors in general, on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We first address the question of what is meant by oil price speculation, and how it relates to investments in oil reserves, oil inventories, or oil price derivatives (such as futures contracts). Next we outline the ways in which one could speculate on oil prices. Finally, we turn to the data, and calculate counterfactual prices that would have occurred from 1999 to 2012 in the absence of speculation. Our framework is based on a simple and transparent model of supply and demand in the cash and storage markets for a commodity. It lets us determine whether speculation as the driver of price changes is consistent with the data on production, consumption, inventory changes, and changes in convenience yields given reasonable elasticity assumptions. We show speculation had little, if any, effect on prices and volatility.

Christopher R. Knittel; Robert S. Pindyck; Christopher R. Knittel; Robert S. Pindyck

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, October 2006 1 The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices by Jose A. Villar Natural Gas Division Energy Information Administration and Frederick L. Joutz Department of Economics The George Washington University Abstract: This paper examines the time series econometric relationship between the Henry Hub natural gas price and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. Typically, this relationship has been approached using simple correlations and deterministic trends. When data have unit roots as in this case, such analysis is faulty and subject to spurious results. We find a cointegrating relationship relating Henry Hub prices to the WTI and trend capturing the relative demand and supply effects over the 1989-through-2005 period. The dynamics of the relationship

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Spread narrows between Brent and WTI crude oil benchmark prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Spot prices for benchmarks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Sea Brent crude oil neared parity of around $109 per barrel July 19, and the Brent-WTI spread was ...

222

Past, present and future evolution of oil prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis reviews how oil price has evolved throughout time since it was discovered and commercially exploited in 1859 in Pennsylvania. Rather than a pure economic study, this thesis illustrates how major historic and ...

Corsetti, Manuel

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that rise or result in a significant downturn.

Information Center

2008-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

224

Weekly Minnesota No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Minnesota No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

225

Weekly Massachusetts No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Massachusetts No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

226

Weekly Wisconsin No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Wisconsin No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

227

Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

18.60 19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

228

Rhode Island Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... Residential Propane: 3.540: 3.534: 3.540: 3.515: 3.511: 3.514: 1990-2013

229

Residential Prices Do Not Reflect the Volatility Seen in Wellhead Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: A key concern about the level of current wellhead prices is the impact on consumers, especially residential and small-volume commercial customers Using monthly average prices for residential customers and daily Henry Hub spot prices for the past 4 winters: significant price fluctuations are apparent at the Henry Hub, but residential prices respond relatively less. The major reasons for the lesser response in residential prices are: Gas supplies to residential customers generally are arranged prior to delivery, and agreed price terms, while flexible, generally do not fully reflect contemporaneous wellhead price shifts Gas commodity charges are a fraction of the delivery price for small customers-averaging about 33 percent during the heating season. Costs of

230

A New Hybrid Approach for Analysis of Factors Affecting Crude Oil Price  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new hybrid approach is presented to analyze factors affecting crude oil price using rough set and wavelet neural network. Related factors that affect crude oil price are found using text mining technique and Brent oil price is chosen ... Keywords: crude oil price, prediction, rough set, wavelet neural network

Wei Xu; Jue Wang; Xun Zhang; Wen Zhang; Shouyang Wang

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Lower crude oil prices to help push down gasoline pricesLower...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

down from the average 3.63 a gallon U.S. drivers paid in 2012. Expected lower crude oil prices, which account for about two-thirds of the cost of gasoline, will help push...

232

Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: One can use a simple model to deal with price/fundamental relationships. This one predicts monthly average WTI price as a function of OECD total petroleum stock deviations from the normal levels. The graph shows the model as it begins predicting prices in 1992. It shows how well the model has predicted not only the direction, but the magnitude of prices over this 8+ year period. While the model is simple and not perfect, it does predict the overall trends and, in particular, the recent rise in prices. It also shows that prices may have over-shot the fundamental balance for a while -- at least partially due to speculative concerns over Mideast tensions, winter supply adequacy, and Iraq's export policies. Prices moved lower in December, and even undershot briefly the

233

Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Since Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997), a common view in the literature has been that systematic monetary policy responses to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks are an important source of aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. economy. We show that there is no evidence of systematic monetary policy responses to oil price shocks after 1987 and that this lack of a policy response is unlikely to be explained by reduced real wage rigidities. Prior to 1987, according to standard VAR models, the Federal Reserve was not responding to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks, as commonly presumed, but rather to the oil price shocks directly, consistent with a preemptive move by the Federal Reserve to counteract potential inflationary pressures. There are indications that this response is poorly identified, however, and there is no evidence that this policy response in the pre-1987 period caused substantial fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate or in real output. Our analysis suggests that the traditional monetary policy reaction framework explored by BGW and incorporated in subsequent DSGE models should be replaced by DSGE models that take account of the endogeneity of the real price of oil and that allow policy responses to depend on the underlying causes of oil price shocks.

Lutz Kilian

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Nutritional Status of some Aromatic Plants Grown to Produce Volatile Oils under Treated Municipal Wastewater irrigation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

any reduction in quantity and quality of volatile oils.on the quantity and quality of the essential oil for fiveon the quantity and quality of the essential oil of five

Khalifa, Ramadan Khalifa Mohamed

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

World Oil: Market or Mayhem?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle. Why are oil prices so volatile? What is OPEC and what does OPEC do? Where are oil prices headed in the long run? Is peak oil a genuine concern? Why did oil prices ...

Smith, James L.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices? - Energy  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

& Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) & Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis Sources & Uses Petroleum & Other Liquids Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas Exploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. Electricity Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & Efficiency Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. Coal Reserves, production, prices, employ- ment and productivity, distribution, stocks, imports and exports. Renewable & Alternative Fuels

237

Selected State Residential Heating Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Ohio, on the bottom of the chart, ... overhead operations (including advertising costs) plus county inspection fees are also factored into the price.

238

Crude Oil Price Prediction Using Slantlet Denoising Based Hybrid Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accurate prediction of crude oil price movement has always been the central issue with profound implications across different levels of the economy. This study conducts empirical investigations into the characteristics of crude oil market and proposes ... Keywords: Slantlet Analysis, ARMA Model, Hybrid Forecasting Algorithm, Rrandom Walk Model, Support Vector Regression

Kaijian He; Kin Keung Lai; Jerome Yen

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Do OPEC Members Know Something the Market Doesnt? Fair Price Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the fair price of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the price prevailing in the crude oil market at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with the contemporaneous futures price. A natural question is whether these fair price pronouncements contain information not already reflected in market prices. To find the answer, we collect fair price statements made between 2000 and 2009 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the fair price series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use several methodologies to establish that fair price pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and that they supply little or no new news to oil futures market participants.

Celso Brunetti; Bahattin Byk?ahin; Michel A. Robe; Kirsten R. Soneson; David Reiffen; Bob Buckley; Rasmus Fatum; Robert L. Losey; Jim Moser; Adam Sieminski; Phil Verlegger; Joe Konizeski

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

CRUDE OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND SAUDI ARABIAN BEHAVIOUR by  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The responsibility for the contents of the working paper rests with the author, not the Institute. Since working papers are of a preliminary nature, it may be useful to contact the author of a particular working paper about results or caveats before referring to, or quoting, a paper. Any comments on working papers should be sent directly to the author. CRUDE OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND SAUDI ARABIAN BEHAVIOUR* This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price change. This explains why oil prices overshoot. The results of a general equilibrium model applied to Saudi Arabia support this analysis. They also indicate that Saudi Arabia does not have any incentive in altering the crude oil market equilibrium with either positive or negative supply shocks; and that its behaviour is asymmetric in the presence of world demand shocks, having an incentive (disincentive) in intervening if a negative (positive) demand shock hits the crude oil market. A second set of simulations is designed to understand what might be a correct OECD policy to lower prices. A tax cut would worsen the situation, whereas policies which can increase the price elasticity of demand seem to be very effective. * I have benefited from discussions with Christiane Kasten, Bodo Steiner and Manfred Wiebelt. All errors are my responsibility.

Roberto A. De Santis; Roberto A. De Santis

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Well Productivity in Gas-Condensate and Volatile Oil Reservoirs:  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Wells in gas condensate reservoirs usually exhibit complex behaviours due to condensate deposit as the bottomhole pressure drops below the dew point. The formation of this liquid saturation can lead to a severe loss of well productivity and therefore lower gas recovery. A similar behaviour is observed in volatile oil reservoirs below the bubble point. Understanding these behaviours and extracting values of controlling parameters is necessary to evaluate well potential and design effective programmes to improve productivity. The Centre of Petroleum Studies at Imperial College London has been involved in research in these areas since 1997, sponsored mainly by consortia of oil companies. Results from this work have already greatly improved the understanding of well behaviour in gas condensate and volatile oil reservoirs and the ability to interpret well tests in such reservoirs. Work to-date has focused on vertical and horizontal wells in sandstone reservoirs. Much work remains to understand the behaviours of fractured wells and wells in naturally fractured reservoirs. The objective of this proposal is to complete the work performed to-date in sandstone reservoirs and to extend it to new well and reservoir characteristics, in order to develop a better understanding of near-wellbore effects in gas condensate and volatile oil reservoirs from well testing, and to use this understanding to develop new methods for predicting and improving well productivity in such reservoirs. The work will be performed by staff, MSc and PhD students from the Centre for Petroleum Studies at Imperial College, with input and guidance from industry partners.

Prof A. C. Gringarten

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Myth About Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division EIA's Office of Oil and GasMarch 10, 2000

Information Center

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil returns and stock index returns. Daily returns from 2 January 1998 to 4 November 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 index returns, are analysed using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008), and DCC model of Engle (2002). Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the assumption of constant conditional correlations is not supported empirically. Surprisingly, the empirical results from the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models provide little evidence of volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets. The evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances suggests that VARMA-AGARCH is superior to VARMA-GARCH and

Roengchai Tansuchat; Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer; Roengchai Tansuchat; Chia-lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Crude oil prices peaked early in 2012 - Today in Energy - U.S ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil prices rose during the first quarter of 2012 as concerns about possible international supply disruptions pushed up petroleum prices.

246

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

0 1 August 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 August 10, 2010 Release WTI crude oil spot prices averaged 76.32 per barrel in July...

247

Oil Price Shocks, Inventories, and Macroeconomic Dynamics, mimeo  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper employs disaggregated manufacturing data to investigate the causes of the time delay between an increase in oil prices and the following slowdown in economic activity. VAR results show that, unlike aggregate GDP, the effect of an oil price shock on new motor vehicles production shows up immediately and is statistically significantly. After one quarter, similar patterns are observed for industries that are oil-intensive or for which motor vehicles constitute a demand-shifter. The continuing fall in manufacturing production then leads the economy into a recession. The paper then estimates a modified linear-quadratic inventory model and shows that this description of the oil price dynamics is consistent with rational behavior by firms. An increase in oil prices leads to a decline in manufacturing sales; partly because the shock catches manufacturers by surprise and partly because of their desire to balance the accelerator and production smoothing motives, manufacturers deviate from the target level of inventories and spread the decline in production over various quarters. Moreover, the dynamics entailed by the structural estimates capture two stylized facts about inventory behavior: procyclicality and persistence.

Ana Mara Herrera

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

to 3.95 per gallon. That's down 8-tenths of a penny from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil...

249

What are the differences between various types of crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate and Brent Blend are two crude oils that are either traded themselves or whose prices affect other types of crude oil.

250

Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000 - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000. Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook database, August 2000. Previous slide: ... Since US refiners buy crude oil from so many ...

251

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report." 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1997...

252

Table 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA-182, "Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report." 23. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1996...

253

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2: August 27, 2: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on Digg Find More places to share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth on AddThis.com... Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth

254

Crude Oil Price Forecasting with an Improved Model Based on Wavelet Transform and RBF Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fluctuation of oil price decides the security of energy and economics. So the crude oil price forecasting performs importantly. In the paper, we apply the improved model based on Wavelet Transform and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network to ...

Wu Qunli; Hao Ge; Cheng Xiaodong

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three cases, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel) Reference Low Oil Price

256

Oil and natural gas reserve prices, 1982-2002 : implications for depletion and investment cost  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ? of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a ...

Adelman, Morris Albert

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Louisiana Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

24.51: 24.84: 30.52: 40.48: 54.05: 64.23: 71.63: 100.89: 59.18: 2010's: 78.25: 106.20: 105.97 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

258

Montana Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

72.51: 72.37: 82.12: 87.25: 86.80: 82.93: 80.25: 2013: 88.92: 87.79: 86.40: 86.18: 87.02: 85.58: 98.28: 98.25 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

259

Crude Oil Price Prediction Based On Multi-scale Decomposition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A synergetic model (DWT-LSSVM) is presented in this paper. First of all, the raw data is decomposed into approximate coefficients and the detail coefficients at different scales by discrete wavelet transforms (DWT). These coefficients obtained by previous ... Keywords: crude oil price, least squares vector machines, wavelet transform

Yejing Bao; Xun Zhang; Lean Yu; Shouyang Wang

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

The oil price really is a speculative bubble  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The oil price really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the ...

Eckaus, Richard S.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

An Improved CAViaR Model for Oil Price Risk  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As a benchmark for measuring market risk, Value-at-Risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. ... Keywords: CAViaR, exponentially weighted moving average, oil price risk

Dashan Huang; Baimin Yu; Lean Yu; Frank J. Fabozzi; Masao Fukushima

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; A-Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W XYZ. Energy & Financial Markets What Drives Crude Oil Prices? ...

263

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long...

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi

2011-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

264

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Advocates of renewable energy have long argued that wind power and other renewable technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that wind and other renewables provide. This paper attempts to quantify this benefit by equating it with the cost of achieving price stability through other means, particularly gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps). We find that over the past two years, natural gas consumers have had to pay a premium of roughly 0.50 cents/kWh over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost is potentially large enough to tip the scales away from new investments in natural gasfired generation and in favor of investments in wind power and other renewable technologies.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-05-31T23:59:59.000Z

265

1 QUANTIFYING THE VALUE THAT WIND POWER PROVIDES AS A HEDGE AGAINST VOLATILE NATURAL GAS PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Advocates of renewable energy have long argued that wind power and other renewable technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001 have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that wind and other renewables provide. This paper attempts to quantify this benefit by equating it with the cost of achieving price stability through other means, particularly gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps). We find that over the past two years, natural gas consumers have had to pay a premium of roughly 0.50/kWh over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost is potentially large enough to tip the scales away from new investments in natural gasfired generation and in favor of investments in wind power and other renewable technologies.

Mark Bolinger; Ryan Wiser; William Golove; Mark Bolinger; Ryan Wiser; William Golove

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

267

Leverage vs. Feedback: Which Effect Drives the Oil Market? Sofiane Aboura  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the WTI crude oil spot price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i- and fund-managers. Keywords: WTI, Crude Oil Price, Implied Volatility, Leverage Effect, Feedback Effect. JEL Codes: C4, G1, Q4. 1 Introduction The rise of the US benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

268

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Prices. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2000.

269

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

270

Prediction of movement direction in crude oil prices based on semi-supervised learning  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Oil price prediction has long been an important determinant in the management of most sectors of industry across the world, and has therefore consistently required detailed research. However, existing approaches to oil price prediction have sometimes ... Keywords: Feature extraction (PCA/NLPCA), Machine learning, Oil price prediction, Semi-supervised learning (SSL), Technical indicators

Hyunjung Shin, Tianya Hou, Kanghee Park, Chan-Kyoo Park, Sunghee Choi

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Heating oil prices rise due to winter demand and crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

272

WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi disruption added to a market sense of oversupply. Relatively mild weather in Europe allowed distillate ...

273

The Puzzle of Asymmetric Effects of Oil: New Results from International Stock Markets ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Previous work has documented that oil price changes have nonlinear effects in the economy and in stock market returns. We show that the nonlinear effects are different depending on whether countries are energy dependent or not. While price soars seem to have a negative effect on the stock markets of oil energy dependent countries, they have a positive effect on the stock markets of oil exporting countries. Stock market returns are negatively affected by oil price volatility in energy dependent countries and positively in oil exporting countries. Moreover, we find bi-directional effects between oil price increases and some oil volatility measures that can be reinforced with volatility feedback. The asymmetric effects found in oil dependent and oil exporting countries seem to fit into the offset mechanism proposed in the literature where oil price shocks interact both with oil price volatility and the economy. The results are also consistent with the finding that oil exporting countries benefit economically from oil price hikes.

unknown authors

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, Administrator May 5, 2011 Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation EIA's Energy and Financial Markets Initiative 2 Richard Newell, May 5, 2011 * Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency - improved petroleum storage capacity data - other improvements to data quality and coverage * Analysis of energy and financial market dynamics to improve understanding of what drives energy prices - internal analysis and sponsorship of external research * Outreach with other Federal agencies, experts, and the public - expert workshops - public sessions at EIA's energy conferences - solicitation of public comment on EIA's data collections

275

Gasoline Prices: What is Happening?  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? 5/10/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Gasoline Prices: What is Happening? Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesn't Reflect Potential Volatility Midwest Looking Like Last Year RFG Responding More Strongly Gasoline Prices Vary Among Locations.Retail Regular Gasoline Price, Cents per Gallon May 8, 2001 Crude Oil Affects Gasoline Prices WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Expected To Remain Relatively High Through At Least 2001 Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight Low U.S. Stocks Indicate Tight U.S. Market Regional Inventories Tight Product Balance Pushes Up Product Spread (Spot Product - Crude Price) "New Factor" Contributing to Volatility: Excess Capacity is Gone Regional Refinery Utilization Shows Gulf Coast Pressure

276

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5: November 12, 5: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on Digg Find More places to share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #495: November 12, 2007 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006 on

277

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

279

Does Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks with another spike in gasoline  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks gasoline price spike, Congress summoned the executives of the Big Oil companies to testify about their enormous profits. Some commentators and pundits characterize the pricing policy of Big Oil as "price

Ahmad, Sajjad

280

Oil Price Forecasting with an EMD-Based Multiscale Neural Network Learning Paradigm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a multiscale neural network learning paradigm based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed for crude oil price prediction. In this learning paradigm, the original price series are first decomposed into various independent intrinsic ... Keywords: Crude oil price forecasting, artificial neural networks, empirical mode decomposition, multiscale learning paradigm

Lean Yu; Kin Keung Lai; Shouyang Wang; Kaijian He

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

284

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

285

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Low Oil PriceTables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Price Tables (2007-2035) Oil Price Tables (2007-2035) Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Main Low Oil Price Tables (2007- 2035) Table Title Formats Summary Low Oil Price Case Tables PDF Gif Year-by-Year Low Oil Price Case Tables Excel Gif Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary Excel Gif Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source Excel Gif Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source Excel Gif Table 4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 5. Commercial Sector Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption Excel Gif Table 7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption Excel Gif Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Excel Gif Table 9. Electricity Generating Capacity

286

Impacts of PSC Elements on Contract Economics under Oil Price Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Production sharing contract (PSC) is one of the most common types of cooperation modes in international petroleum contracts. The elements that affect PSC economics mainly include royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax. Assuming that oil ... Keywords: Production Sharing, Oil Price, Oil Contract, International Petroleum Cooperation

Wang Zhen; Zhao Lin; Liu Mingming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot natural gas price in energy-equivalent terms, 1990-2040 Ratio Released:April 15, 2013

288

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

289

Using artificial neural networks to forecast the futures prices of crude oil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Crude oil is the commodity de jour and its pricing is of paramount importance to the layperson as well as to any responsible government. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric pricing models is the forecasting accuracy. ...

Hassan A. Khazem / A. K. Mazouz

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An ...

Ramberg, David J. (David John)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Spot Prices Spot Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, Products in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product by Area 12/09/13 12/10/13 12/11/13 12/12/13 12/13/13 12/16/13 View History Crude Oil WTI - Cushing, Oklahoma 97.1 98.32 97.25 97.21 96.27 97.18 1986-2013 Brent - Europe 110.07 108.91 109.47 108.99 108.08 110.3 1987-2013 Conventional Gasoline New York Harbor, Regular 2.677 2.698 2.670 2.643 2.639 2.650 1986-2013 U.S. Gulf Coast, Regular 2.459 2.481 2.429 2.398 2.377 2.422 1986-2013 RBOB Regular Gasoline Los Angeles 2.639 2.661 2.569 2.543 2.514 2.527 2003-2013 No. 2 Heating Oil New York Harbor

292

Lower prices wreak havoc on Alaska oil patch  

SciTech Connect

The decline in oil prices has slowed drilling activity at Prudhoe Bay even while offshore field construction work continues. By winter, the layoff of about 14 drilling rigs will mean unemployment for an estimated 1400 workers at one field. New construction projects include a plant to process natural gas liquids for the trans-Alaska pipeline and a miscible injection project. The potential of the limestone reservoir at the Lisburne field will remain an unknown until information is available on the effects of gas injection and waterflooding. The author describes work in progress at Lisburne, Kuparuk River, Endicott, and Milne Point Fields to illustrate the bleak prospects for North Slope development. Higher prices in the future, however, will leave the US with large reserves to develop if the companies can weather the lean years. 1 figure.

Bradner, T.

1986-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

OPEC and the price of oil in 1993  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article is based on a talk given by Mr. Francisco R. Parra - a former Secretary General of OPEC and senior executive of Petroleos de Venezuela - at the Advanced International Petroleum Executive Seminar held by Petroleum Economics Limited in Divonne, from 9 to 11 March 1993. The article first appeared in Middle East Economic Survey 36:26, 29 March 1993. It is reprinted here with permission from the author and MEES. In his talk, he examines the minimal impact of OPEC on world oil prices during the past five years and discusses a number of reasons for this. To reverse this, he concludes that OPEC should limit inventories until prices for crude reach $25/bbl. 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Parra, F.R.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

294

Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Investor Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on Investor Flows and Oil Prices References Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices Kenneth J. Singleton Graduate School of Business Stanford University August, 2011 Introduction Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on Investor Flows and Oil Prices References Investor Flows, Speculation, and Oil Prices The role of speculation (broadly construed) in the dramatic rise and subsequent sharp decline in oil prices during 2008? Many attribute these swings to changes in fundamentals of supply and demand, within representative agent models. At the same time there is mounting evidence of the "financialization" of commodity markets. Objective: investigate the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on crude-oil futures prices. Introduction Investor Flows and Speculation New Evidence on

295

Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7: May 12, 2003 7: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Twitter Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Google Bookmark Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970-2002 on Delicious Rank Vehicle Technologies Office: Fact #267: May 12, 2003 Oil Price

296

Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

297

U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/1/2013: Next Release Date: 11/1/2013: Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

298

Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that ...

299

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and (more)

Ramberg, David J. (David John)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Effects of futures market manipulation on crude oil prices: An empirical examination.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Crude oil prices moved irregularly in the period leading to the financial meltdown in the beginning of 2008. This research paper deals with the explaining (more)

Elhelou, Rami

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices and its effect on demand.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The overall theme of the three chapters is the relationship between the prices of natural gas and crude oil, and the factors that cause short (more)

Rosthal, Jennifer Elizabeth

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Low natural gas prices in 2012 reduced returns for some oil and ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Producers with lower proportions of liquids in their total oil and gas production generally had ... wholesale natural gas prices in the United States and Canada fell ...

303

2012 Brief: Average 2012 crude oil prices remain near 2011 levels ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Average crude oil prices in 2012 were at historically high levels for the second year in a row. Brent crude oil averaged $111.67 per barrel, slightly above the 2011 ...

304

Why Hasnt the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices have increased substantially over the last several years.When oil price increases of this magnitude occurred during the 1970s, they were associated with severe recessions.Why hasnt that happened this time around? This Letter explores some answers to that question. Why should oil affect the economy? When the price of oil rises, U.S. households and businesses who purchase fuel oil, gasoline, and other petroleum-based products have less disposable income to spend on other goods and services. However, for domestically produced oil, oil producers receive the extra income from the products they sell, so total U.S. income is not directly affected.Therefore, for domestic oil, a price increase

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation - EIA  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation for Selected Countries1 Heavy Fuel Oil Prices for Electricity Generation for Selected Countries1 U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton2 Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Argentina NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Australia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Austria 83.0 96.4 146.4 153.3 182.2 226.1 220.3 342.3 248.3 Barbados NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Belgium 155.1 160.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Bolivia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Brazil NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Canada 115.7 117.8 180.4 141.5 198.4 222.4 NA NA NA Chile NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Colombia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Cuba NA NA NA 183.4 NA NA NA NA NA

306

The projected impact of lower oil prices on US energy conservation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In view of conservation savings during a period of rising world oil prices (1972 to 1982), the dramatic drop in world oil prices in 1986 elicits the question: Do low world oil prices threaten the conservation savings that occurred during the previous decade. In order to test the potential loss in conservation from the drop in world oil prices in the target year 1995, two oil price scenarios were constructed: a case testing what would have occurred if oil prices remained at their 1984 level ($30/barrel in 1985 dollars), and one in which prices drop to and are maintained at $14/barrel (in 1985 dollars). This approach represents a boundary analysis, illustrating what could happen to conservation rather than predicting what will happen. By comparing projections of energy consumption under the two scenarios, the potential conservation loss from the drop in oil prices can be estimated: (1) potential conservation losses from lower world oil prices might be in the range of 9% in 1995; (2) only about one quarter of this conservation loss represents potential losses in energy efficiency; and (3) the remaining three quarters of the conservation losses result from behavioral changes and increased economic growth under lower prices. The answer to the question posed above is therefore yes; low oil prices do pose a threat to the conservation savings amassed during the past decade. But the threat is not as great as it could be 1-10% loss versus a 25% previous gain). This is because only a small part of the efficiency gains (about 2.5% out of 17%) would be lost. Most of the projected losses in conservation from low oil prices would be behavioral losses (almost all of the 8% past behavioral gain could be lost). 14 figs., 9 tabs.

Not Available

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Middle East and Central Asia Department Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external incomethe sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfersfrom major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.

Prepared Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the ?uctuations in electricity bills that are conceivable.concern about analyzing electricity bill volatility of largeat a The issue of electricity bill volatility from RTP

Borenstein, Severin

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? working paper  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Based on a two-country, multi-period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil, we show that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are accurate predictors of the spot price in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) sense; yet under certain conditions there is support for the view that oil futures prices are unbiased predictors. Our empirical analysis documents that futures-based forecasts typically are less accurate than the no-change forecast and biased, although the bias is small. Much of the MSPE is driven by the variability of the futures price about the expected spot price, as captured by the basis. Empirically, the fluctuations in the oil futures basis are larger and more persistent than fluctuations in the basis of foreign exchange futures. Within the context of our theoretical model, this anomaly can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories. We show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the basis to decline and precautionary demand for crude oil to increase, resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price that is not necessarily associated with an accumulation of oil inventories. Our main result is that the negative of the basis may be viewed as an index of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand for oil. An empirical analysis of this index provides independent evidence of how shifts in market expectations about future oil supply shortfalls affect the spot price of crude oil. Such expectation shifts have been difficult to quantify, yet have been shown to play an important role in explaining oil price fluctuations. Our empirical results are consistent with related evidence in the literature obtained by alternative methodologies.

Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Crude Oil Price Forecasting: A Transfer Learning Based Analog Complexing Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Most of the existing models for oil price forecasting only use the data in the forecasted time series itself. This study proposes a transfer learning based analog complexing model (TLAC). It first transfers some related time series in source domain to ... Keywords: transfer learning method, analog complexing model, genetic algorithm, crude oil price forecasting

Jin Xiao; Changzheng He; Shouyang Wang

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Support vector machines versus back propagation algorithm for oil price prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The importance of crude oil in the world economy has made it imperative that efficient models be designed for predicting future prices. Neural networks can be used as prediction models, thus, in this paper we investigate and compare the use of a support ... Keywords: back propagation algorithm, crude oil, neural networks, price prediction, radial basis function, support vector machines

Adnan Khashman; Nnamdi I. Nwulu

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Oil Prices and U.S. Aggregate Economic Activity: A Question of Neutrality  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Research suggests rising oil prices reduced output and increased inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s and falling oil prices boosted output and lowered inflation in the mid- to late 1980s. Stephen P. A. Brown is a senior economist and assistant vice president and Mine K. Ycel is a senior economist and research officer in the

Stephen P. A. Brown; Mine K. Ycel

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Another Bull Market Consolidation or Have Oil Prices Headed South for the Winter?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation was given at the New York Energy Forum on September 5, 2006. It explores the reasons behind rising oil prices over the last few years and discusses whether the drop in oil prices seen in late August and early September 2005 is the start of a long-running trend or is only a temporary decline.

Information Center

2006-09-12T23:59:59.000Z

314

System analysis approach for the identification of factors driving crude oil prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system analysis approach is proposed to identify the main factors driving international crude oil prices by integrating a partial least squares model, an vector error correction model and the directed acyclic graph method. The different mechanisms ... Keywords: Crude oil price, DAG, Driving factors, Financial crisis, VECM

Qiang Ji

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship among the U.S. Ethanol, Corn and Soybean Sectors, and World Oil Prices.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis aimed to investigate the relationships among the following variables: U.S. corn prices, U.S. ethanol production, U.S. soybean prices and world oil prices. After (more)

Savernini, Maira Q. M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

EIA - AEO2010 - World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or “sweet”) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for “total liquids,” which includes conventional petroleum liquids—such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain—in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil. World oil prices can be influenced by a multitude of factors. Some tend to be short term, such as movements in exchange rates, financial markets, and weather, and some are longer term, such as expectations concerning future demand and production decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2009, the interaction of market factors led prompt month contracts (contracts for the nearest traded month) for crude oil to rise relatively steadily from a January average of $41.68 per barrel to a December average of $74.47 per barrel [38].

317

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

318

A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for their comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to contractionary monetary policies that arise in response to inflation concerns engendered by rising oil prices? Can systematic monetary policy be used to alleviate the consequences of oil shocks on the economy? This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition in which oil and money matter to study these questions. The economy's response to oil-price shocks is examined under a variety of monetary policy rules in environments with flexible and sticky prices. We find that easy-inflation policies amplify the negative output response to positive oil shocks and that systematic monetary policy accounts for up to two thirds of the fall in output. On the other hand, we show that a monetary policy that targets the (overall) price level substantially alleviates the impact of oil-price shocks

Sylvan Leduc; Keith Sill; Sylvain Leduc; Keith Sill

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices for Selected Crude...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

(Dollars per Barrel)","Mars Blend First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)","West Texas Intermediate First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)","West Texas Sour First...

320

Sensitivity analysis of world oil prices. Analysis report AR/IA/79-47  

SciTech Connect

An analysis of the impact of the political disruption in Iran on the world oil market is presented. During the first quarter of 1979, this disruption caused a loss of approximately 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of oil production available for export from Iran to the rest of the world. This loss of production and the political climate in Iran have caused much speculation concerning future Iranian oil production and total Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production in the nearterm and midterm. The analysis describes these issues in terms of two critical factors: the world oil price and the level of OPEC oil production in the nearterm and midterm. A detailed comparison of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasting models of world oil prices is presented. This comparison consists of examining reasons for differences in the price forecasts of the CIA model by using CIA assumptions within the EIA model. The CIA and EIA model structures and major parameters are also compared. It is important to note that this analysis is not all encompassing. In particular, the analysis does not provide data on crude oil prices in the spot market, but does provide information on the average crude oil price; and does not permit rationing of oil, since the market is forced to clear only through changes in oil prices. Throughout this paper, world oil prices are defined in terms of real 1978 dollars per barrel of crude oil delivered to the East Coast of the United States net of any import fees.

Rodekohr, M.; Cato, D.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Stock market volatility and price discovery : three essays on the effect of macroeconomic information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Macro Announcements: Real Time Price Discovery in Foreign93, 3862. (2005): Real Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond

Rangel, Jose Gonzalo

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels June 11, 2008 - 1:30pm Addthis Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer sent a letter on June 11, 2008 to Senator Jeff Bingaman addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. Read the letter. Without Biofuels, Gas Prices Would Increase $.20 to $.35 per Gallon. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that gasoline prices would be between 20 cents to 35 cents per gallon higher without ethanol1, a first-generation biofuel. For a typical household, that means saving about $150 to $300 per year. For the U.S. overall, this saves gas expenditures of $28 billion to

323

Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels June 11, 2008 - 1:30pm Addthis Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer sent a letter on June 11, 2008 to Senator Jeff Bingaman addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. Read the letter. Without Biofuels, Gas Prices Would Increase $.20 to $.35 per Gallon. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that gasoline prices would be between 20 cents to 35 cents per gallon higher without ethanol1, a first-generation biofuel. For a typical household, that means saving about $150 to $300 per year. For the U.S. overall, this saves gas expenditures of $28 billion to

324

Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Vary With Seasons and Supply/Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Of course, petroleum product prices don't move in lockstep to crude oil prices, for a number of reasons. We find it useful to look at variations in the spread between product and crude oil prices, in this case comparing spot market prices for each. The difference between heating oil and crude oil spot prices tends to vary seasonally; that is, it's generally higher in the winter, when demand for distillate fuels is higher due to heating requirements, and lower in the summer. (Gasoline, as we'll see later, generally does the opposite.) However, other factors affecting supply and demand, including the relative severity of winter weather, can greatly distort these "typical" seasonal trends. As seen on this chart, the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 featured

325

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

326

Bakken crude oil price differential to WTI narrows over ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. ...

327

Natural Gas Citygate Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross...

328

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

329

AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 132, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Production, lower 48 onshore and lower 48 offshore. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO crude oil EIA prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region- Reference Case (xls, 54.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

330

AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region

331

U.S. less Alaskan North Slope Crude Oil First Purchase Price ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

51.02: 60.22: 67.04: 94.72: 56.65: 2010's: 75.04: 95.35: 94.11 ... Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area ...

332

Oil futures price curve has steepened over the past six months ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil futures contracts allow crude to be bought and sold for delivery at specific dates in the future, meaning market participants can lock in a price today for ...

333

A new method for crude oil price forecasting based on support vector machines  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a new method for crude oil price forecasting based on support vector machine (SVM). The procedure of developing a support vector machine model for time series forecasting involves data sampling, sample preprocessing, training & ...

Wen Xie; Lean Yu; Shanying Xu; Shouyang Wang

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Recently, S&P 500 Index and WTI crude oil futures price ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Over the past few weeks (July 1 through August 19), the movement of oil prices has closely mirrored that of the Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 Index.

335

On a euro basis, Brent crude oil spot price surpasses prior ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

On a euro basis, the spot price for Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, has surpassed its prior record high and set a new record high of 96.53 euros per barrel on ...

336

U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

View History: Monthly Annual : Download Data (XLS File) U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4

337

Weekly Ohio No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Ohio No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value End Date

338

Weekly New Jersey No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly New Jersey No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon) Year-Month Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5; End Date Value End Date Value End Date Value

339

U.S. Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March) (Dollars per Gallon Excluding Taxes) ... Residential Propane: 2.376: 2.405: 2.413: 2.449: 2.486: 2.489: 1990-2013:

340

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

hedges include fixed-price natural gas supply contractsfixed-price gas supply contracts and natural gas storage.natural gas storage facilities. Since, in contrast to many financial hedges, physical supply

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

EVALAUATION OF THE COMPONENTS AND ANTIMICROBIAL ACTIVITY OF VOLATILE OIL FROM ZANTHOXYLUMLIMONELLA FRUIT.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Essential oils constitute a relatively common group of natural products present in aromatic medicinal plants. They are volatile liquids usually with pleasant and sometimes intensive odors (aroma).Essential oils are well known for its activity in lungs related diseases.They maintained the ventilation and drainage of the sinuses, had an antiinflammatory effect on the trachea 5 and reduced asthma.The essential oil isolated from Zanthoxylumlimonellawere proved a large number of compounds. Many compounds were detected and proved by previous workers, some of them yet to be identified and screened.Traditional usage of the plant indicates various uses even some are contradictory.In the present study showed that the oil is moderately active against grampositive and significantly no action against gram-negative. KEY WORDS:,Gram-positive, Zanthoxylumlimonella,Gram-negative Essential oil.

Arunkumark. V; M. Paridhavi

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called "terminal price " of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost of extraction, cumulative production, and proven reserves. The predicted terminal prices seem sensible for a range of parameters and variables, as illustrated by the sensitivity analysis. Using the terminal price of oil, we calculate the time to depletion, and determine the extraction and price proles over the life-time of the resource. The extraction proles generated seem to be in line with the actual production and the predicted prices are generally in line with those currently observed.

Kamiar Mohaddes

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

International Petroleum (Oil) Prices webpage provided by EIA  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

344

Price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil narrowing - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

345

oil prices - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

346

www.ucei.org Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket and thus receive a monthly bill far larger than it had budgeted for. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies can eliminate more than 80 % of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. Far from being complex, mystifying financial instruments that only a Wall Street analyst could love, these are simple forward power purchase contracts, and are already offered to retail customers by a number of fully-regulated utilities that operate real-time pricing programs. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility. 1

Severin Borenstein; Severin Borenstein

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

The world oil market and OPEC behavior: The leak-producer price leader model  

SciTech Connect

This is an economic study of the world's oil market in which OPEC plays the central role in determining the oil supply and price. Understanding OPEC's behavior is at the core of understanding the world's oil market. However, oil is a resource belonging to the family of natural resources known as exhaustible. We do not produce oil; we only extract and distribute a fixed amount of the resource over generations. Optimal extraction is a matter of concern to both suppliers and consumers. First, it is shown that using the traditional theory of producers behavior in the conventional commodity markets to explain extractors behavior in exhaustible resource markets is completely wrong. Second, current models of OPEC behavior are reviewed. Third, an alternative model is introduced. Previous authors have not directed their models to give explanations to the peculiar observations in oil market. This model divides the world's oil suppliers into: the free riders (non-OPEC oil producers), the OPEC hawks (a group within OPEC) and the leak-producer price leader (Saudi Arabia). Three factors, namely relatively big oil reserves, no other sources of income, and the avoidance of the so-called backstop technology make Saudi Arabia more interested in lower oil prices than are other oil extractors.

Aboalela, A.A.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Middle distillate price monitoring system. Interim validation report. [No. 2 heating oil  

SciTech Connect

The Middle Distillate Price Monitoring System collects data on prices and gross margins for No. 2 heating oil from a sample of refiners, resellers, and retailers. The data is used to evaluate the level of competition and the reasonableness of prices in the heating oil market. It is concluded that the data does not provide a basis for determining whether a market is competitive, and that there is serious doubt as to the accuracy of the information collected by the system. Some recommendations are given for improving the quality of the information. (DLC)

Hopelain, D.G.; Freedman, D.; Rice, T.H.; Veitch, J.G.; Finlay, A.

1978-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Weak oil prices seen hindrance to pace of increase in gas use  

SciTech Connect

World demand for gas is expected to rocket, yet future natural gas and liquefied natural gas projects remain threatened by the link of gas prices to crude oil prices. This is the main message that emerged from the 19th World Gas Conference in Milan last week. A number of reports predicted regional demand for gas. All foresaw a rise. International Gas Union (IGU), organizer of the conference, and said world natural gas production has continued to rise despite a significant downturn in industrial production. The paper discusses gas demand in Europe, the correlation between oil and gas prices, the natural gas industry in Indonesia, Russia, and southern Europe.

Not Available

1994-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

350

Limiting currency volatility to stimulate goods market integration: a price based approach. NBER Working Paper No. 8468  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of exchange rate volatility on the integration of goods markets. Rather than using data on volume of trade, this paper employs a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83 cities around the world during 1990-2000. We find that the impact of an institutional stabilization currency board or dollarization promotes market integration far beyond an instrumental stabilization. Among them, long-term currency unions are more effective than more recent currency boards. All have room to improve relative to a U.S. benchmark.

David C. Parsley; Shang-jin Wei

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Retail Price of No. 2 Fuel Oil to Residential Consumers  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Retail prices and Prime ...

352

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

E&P costs E&P investments E&P innovations Physical balancing Inventories Markets & market behavior Energy prices ? spot ? futures ? options

353

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, ...

354

CA Crude Oil Price History - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crudes produced in California vary in quality as shown by the different price levels of Kern and Line 63. Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude is used in California ...

355

The Price Is Wrong for Oil Shale and Tar Sand Tech  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The huge run-up in oil prices over the last several years, reaching a peak of close to US $150 per barrel this past summer, has given energy companies a big incentive to find new ways of harvesting unconventional oil, especially in North America. Technology ...

M. Heger

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Short- and long-term price forecasting for palm and lauric oils  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Dorab E. Mistry presents excerpts from a talk he delivered at the 6th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) & 2011 Price Outlook, organized by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) and held December 13, 2010, at the Westin Resort Nusa Dua, Bali. Sho

357

Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil price? It does not relate to Mick' short stint at the London School of Economics, the oil industry operates on the same principle, at least in the short run. The industry relies on proven

Ahmad, Sajjad

358

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

359

A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the (more)

Fazzio, Thomas J. (Thomas Joseph)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

The first oil price explosion 1971-1974  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The 1970 price of Saudi Light crude was $1.21, of which 89 cents was excise tax. By end-1974, the price was about $11, of which 30-50 cents was a fee paid to the former owners, now operators. The detailed history of the ...

Adelman, Morris Albert

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Operation of Distributed Generation Under Stochastic Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

increases with electricity price volatility as expected,Intuitively, as the electricity price becomes more volatile,between it and the electricity price, there will be fewer

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Consumers Are Enjoying Low Oil Prices (Figure 1)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Exxon-Mobil Merger Recombines Two Standard Oil Spin-Offs. Exxon and Mobil were two of the seven largest companies that were spun off from the Standard Oil Company ...

363

On the shortterm influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both linear and nonlinear relationships. Our findings show that there are significant links between the two variables in Qatar, Oman, and UAE. Thus, stock markets in these countries react positively to oil price

Mohamed El; Hedi Arouri; Julien Fouquau

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

365

Final report of the Rhode Island State Energy Office on residential no. 2 heating oil and propane prices [SHOPP  

SciTech Connect

Summary report on residential No.2 heating oil and propane prepared under grant. Summarizes the monitoring and analysis of heating oil and propane prices from October 2000 through March 2001.

McClanahan, Janice

2001-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

World oil: Market or mayhem  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle. Why are oil prices so volatile? What is OPEC and what does OPEC do? Where are oil prices headed in the long run? Is peak oil a genuine concern? Why did oil prices spike in the summer of 2008, and what role did speculators play? Any attempt to answer these questions must be informed and disciplined by economics. Such is the purpose of this essay: to illuminate recent developments in the world oil market from the perspective of economic theory.

James L. Smith; James L. Smith; Larry Debrock; Dwight Lee; John Parsons

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Iowa Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

368

Virginia Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

369

Minnesota Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

370

New York Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

371

North Carolina Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

372

Indiana Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

373

Wisconsin Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

374

Vermont Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

375

New Hampshire Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

376

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ... oil demand growth, slow supply growth and tight spare capacity 22 Richard Newell, May 5, 2011

377

Pennsylvania Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Weekly heating oil and ...

378

California Crude Oil Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... of different quality crudes vary over time based on the value the market places on such quality attributes. A heavy crude oil has more heavy, ...

379

Crude Oil Price Forecast - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Cutbacks in heavy crude oil production targeted by Mexico, Saudi Arabia and to some degree Venezuela should help narrow the differential. The ...

380

Impact of Changing Fuel and Power Market Structures on Price Behavior  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Managing electricity and fuel price risks is a daily task in today's competitive markets. It is tempting to try to extract insights from past price behavior. This report analyzes short-term price relationships for electricity and natural gas (for example, price volatilities and correlations) but goes farther, examining overarching price regimes that provide context for observed prices and required risk management. Spanning electricity, natural gas, oil, coal, and emission allowances markets, the interpre...

2001-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

New York Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Residential Heating Oil: 4.392: 4.402: 4.380: 4.312: 4.314: 4.289: 1990-2013: Wholesale Heating Oil : Residential Propane: 2.902: 2.920: 2.931: 2.928: 2.933: 2.935 ...

382

Why don't fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Fuel demand is affected mainly by economic conditions, and for heating oil, the weather. ... How do I calculate diesel fuel surcharges? How do I compare heating fuels?

383

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources failed to find much realization in actual stocks data. The idea that stocks are still languishing at below-normal levels is particularly persuasive when one views current levels (for key consuming regions) relative to "normal" values which account for the long-term trend in OECD stocks. We believe that monthly average WTI prices will stay around $30 per barrel for the first part of 2001. This is a noticeable upward shift in our projected average prices from even a month ago. The shift reflects greater emphasis on the lack of stock builds and less emphasis on the assumption that supply from OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers may be exceeding demand by 1-2

384

Estimating the effect of future oil prices on petroleum engineering project investment yardsticks.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study proposes two methods, (1) a probabilistic method based on historical oil prices and (2) a method based on Gaussian simulation, to model future prices of oil. With these methods to model future oil prices, we can calculate the ranges of uncertainty in traditional probability indicators based on cash flow analysis, such as net present values, net present value to investment ratio and internal rate of return. We found that conventional methods used to quantify uncertainty which use high, low and base prices produce uncertainty ranges far narrower than those observed historically. These methods fail because they do not capture the "shocks" in oil prices that arise from geopolitical events or supply-demand imbalances. Quantifying uncertainty is becoming increasingly important in the petroleum industry as many current investment opportunities in reservoir development require large investments, many in harsh exploration environments, with intensive technology requirements. Insight into the range of uncertainty, particularly for downside, may influence our investment decision in these difficult areas.

Mendjoge, Ashish V

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Proposed currency composite approach to pricing OPEC oil: problems and possibilities  

SciTech Connect

The primary purpose of this dissertation was to explore the nature, purposes, benefits, and barriers of establishing a currency basket for OPEC as an alternative to the use the dollar for international trade in oil. The study included the construction and evaluation of three alternative currency baskets and the evaluation of two other baskets for the protection of the real price of OPEC oil from foreign-exchange fluctuations between 1971 and 1980. A secondary objective was to assess the inflationary impact on the real price of oil. Finally, the purpose was to evaluate the changes of the terms of trade of OPEC during the same period. The findings of the research are as follows: During 1971-1980, inflation and the relative weakness of the dollar have reduced the real price of oil to OPEC. In spite of this, the terms of trade of OPEC have substantially improved. This was because OPEC increased its oil prices much more than sufficient to compensate for inflation and the fluctuation of foreign-exchange rates.

Shaaf, M.B.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Winter Crude Oil and  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: While the relatively low stock forecast (although not as low as last winter) adds some extra pressure to prices, the price of crude oil could be the major factor affecting heating oil prices this winter. The current EIA forecast shows residential prices averaging $1.29 this winter, assuming no volatility. The average retail price is about 7 cents less than last winter, but last winter included the price spike in November 2000, December 2000, and January 2001. Underlying crude oil prices are currently expected to be at or below those seen last winter. WTI averaged over $30 per barrel last winter, and is currently forecast to average about $27.50 per barrel this winter. As those of you who watch the markets know, there is tremendous uncertainty in the amount of crude oil supply that will be available this winter. Less

387

Consumers Are Enjoying Low Oil Prices (Figure 1)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MARCH 10, 1999 Summary of Jay Hakes Testimony on Exxon-Mobil Merger The major oil companies are very different companies today than they were at the time of the Arab Oil Embargo. Following the nationalization of crude-producing assets and the subsequent rise of state-owned oil companies to run and enhance those assets, major oil companies shrank. In 1972, had mergers occurred between BP and Amoco and Exxon and Mobil, the two resulting organizations would have controlled almost 28 percent of world production. Today the combined production of these four organizations accounts for less than 7 percent of production. Exxon and Mobil account for less than 4 percent. If Exxon and Mobil combine, EIA data show several regions of large overlap.

388

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

389

A Comparative Study of Multi-step-ahead Prediction for Crude Oil Price with Support Vector Regression  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate prediction on crude oil price in a long time horizon has been appealing both for academia and practitioners. Recursive strategy and direct strategy are two mainstream modeling schemas widely used for multi-step-ahead prediction in the context ... Keywords: Crude Oil Price Predicition, Multip-step-aheand Prediction, Support Vector Regression, Time Sereis Modeling

Yukun Bao; Yunfei Yang; Tao Xiong; Jinlong Zhang

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy resources such as wind power carry no natural gas fuel priceenergy have long argued that wind power and other renewable technologies can mitigate fuel priceenergy resources such as wind power, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

392

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

393

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

394

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

395

Estimating household fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and LPG prices by census region  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this research is to estimate individual fuel prices within the residential sector. The data from four US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, residential energy consumption surveys were used to estimate the models. For a number of important fuel types - fuel oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas - the estimation presents a problem because these fuels are not used by all households. Estimates obtained by using only data in which observed fuel prices are present would be biased. A correction for this self-selection bias is needed for estimating prices of these fuels. A literature search identified no past studies on application of the selectivity model for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. This report describes selectivity models that utilize the Dubin/McFadden correction method for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West census regions. Statistically significant explanatory variables are identified and discussed in each of the models. This new application of the selectivity model should be of interest to energy policy makers, researchers, and academicians.

Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Modeling of Asymmetry between Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices: A Monte Carlo Comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An Engle---Granger two-step procedure is commonly used to estimate cointegrating vectors and consequently asymmetric error-correction models. This study uses Monte Carlo methods and demonstrates that the Engle---Granger two-step method leads to biased ... Keywords: Asymmetry, Gasoline, Modeling, Oil prices

Afshin Honarvar

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington**  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

since 2000 represents the early phase of a `super cycle' (SC) driven by the sustained rise in demand: is there evidence of super cycles in crude oil prices? On one hand, one might expect the strong demand associated, Colorado, USA, 30 October-2 November 2011. ** PhD candidate and William J. Coulter Professor of Mineral

398

A supply-demand model for OPEC oil-pricing policies  

SciTech Connect

OPEC and its pricing policies have been subjected to constant international attention as well as criticism since 1973. Consumers find OPEC behavior irrational, while OPEC tries to justify its policies as rational and in accordance with the realities of the international oil market. The focus of this study is to contribute toward an analytical and empirical work on OPEC pricing behavior, and highlight the various factors believed to affect the future oil policies of OPEC member countries. After a survey of literature on the theoretical framework of world oil models in general, and OPEC models in particular, a linear econometric model for pricing OPEC oil is formulated which is a supply-demand equilibrium model comprising of supply, demand, and inflation-rate functions. Estimation of the behavioral equations are carried out by Ordinary and Two-Stage Least Square estimators. Econometric results from the estimation and simulation of the model seem to indicate that OPEC's pricing behavior is market-responsive and may best be explained by employing the theoretical framework of market-equilibrium condition.

Heiat, N.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Product by Area: May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 View History; Crude Oil : WTI - Cushing, Oklahoma: 94.51: 95.77: 104.67: 106.57: 106.29: 100.54: 1986-2013 ...

400

Higher Prices from Entry: Pricing of Brand-Name Drugs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

with Distance Figure 6 Cumulative Unexpected Price Effectsand Paul J. Seguin, "Price Volatility, Trading Volume andGoods in Pharmaceutical Price In- dexes," American Economic

Perloff, Jeffrey M.; Suslow, Valerie Y.; Seguin, Paul J.

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Microsoft Word - Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

For Immediate Release For Immediate Release June 11, 2008 202-586-4940 Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without Biofuels Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer sent a letter on June 11, 2008 to Senator Jeff Bingaman addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. The letter is available at http://www.energy.gov Without Biofuels, Gas Prices Would Increase $.20 to $.35 per Gallon. * The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that gasoline prices would be between 20 cents to 35 cents per gallon higher without ethanol 1 , a first-generation biofuel. * For a typical household, that means saving about $150 to $300 per year. * For the U.S. overall, this saves gas expenditures of $28 billion to $49 billion based on annual

402

Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

403

Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

404

Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

405

Dynamical Theory of Price and Money in Volatile Markets. A Physicist's Reaction to Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The creation and annihilation of money and its economic effects are reviewed. Economic values appear "in the mind" of the market participants; e.g., by pretending, maintaining and achieving a particular price for a certain asset. Upon its creation by banks, this kind of "value phantasy" is converted into "real money" often in terms of buyer's debt accompanied by a simultaneous payment of fiat money to the seller. This money is then multiplied on the money market and is competing against other money supplies for the traded assets, goods and services, where it may cause dilution, inflation and reallocation of resources.

Svozil, Karl

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

407

Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

John Maples John Maples 2011 EIA Energy Conference April 26, 2011 Transportation and the Environment Light-duty vehicle combined Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE) in three cases, 2005-2035 2 0 20 40 60 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 miles per gallon Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 CAFE6 CAFE3 Reference John Maples, April 26, 2011 Light-duty vehicle delivered energy consumption and total transportation carbon dioxide emissions, 2005-2035 3 0 5 10 15 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reference CAFE3 CAFE6 quadrillion Btu 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 John Maples, April 26, 2011 Distribution of new light-duty vehicle sales by price, 2010 and 2025 (2009$) 4 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011

408

Distillate Fuel Oil Imports Could Be Available - For A Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: So it wasn't demand and production explains only part of the reason we got through last winter with enough stocks. The mystery is solved when you look at net imports of distillate fuel last winter. As we found out, while imports are a small contributor to supply, they are sometimes crucial. Last winter, imports were the main source of supply increase following the price spike. Previous record levels were shattered as imports came pouring into the country. The fact that Europe was enjoying a warmer-than-normal winter also encouraged exports to the United States. It was massive amounts of imports, particularly from Russia, that helped us get through last winter in as good a shape as we did. Imports are expected to be relatively normal this winter. Added imports

409

An economic assessment of the impact of two crude oil price scenarios on households  

SciTech Connect

The impact of two possible future crude oil price scenarios -- high and low price cases -- is assessed for three population groups: majority (non-Hispanic and nonblack), black, and Hispanic. The two price scenarios were taken from the energy security'' report published by the US Department of Energy in 1987. Effects of the two crude oil price scenarios for the 1986--95 period are measured for energy demand and composition and for share of income spent on energy by the three population groups at both the national and census-region levels. The effects on blacks are marginally more adverse than on majority householders, while effects on Hispanics are about the same as those on the majority. Little change is seen in percentage of income spent on energy over the forecast period. Both Hispanic and black households would spend a larger share of their incomes on energy than would majority households. The relatively adverse effects in the higher price scenario shift from the South and West Census regions to the Northeast and Midwest. 24 refs., 7 figs., 22 tabs.

Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.; Hemphill, R.C.; Hill, L.G.; Marinelli, J.L.; Rose, K.J.; Santini, D.J.

1990-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Identifying the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: An Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oil price exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oil price-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

412

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthʹs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

413

New Delhi http://www.nipfp.org.in Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper analyses the impact of transmission of international oil prices and domestic oil price pass-through policy on major macroeconomic variables in India with the help of a macroeconomic policy simulation model. Three major channels of transmission viz. import channel, price channel, and fiscal channel are explored with the help of a structural macroeconomic framework. The policy option of deregulation of domestic oil prices in the scenario of occurrence of a one-time shock in international oil prices as well as no oil price shock situation analysed through its impact on growth, inflation, fiscal balances and external balances during the 12 th Plan period of 2012-13 to 2016-17. The simulation results indicate that in the short run the deregulation policy would have adverse impact on the growth as well as on the inflation. But if this policy is complemented with the policy of switching of subsidy bill to capital expenditure it might result in positive growth effects in the medium and long run. Given, the current passthrough policy, one-time oil shock has adverse impact on growth and inflation in the year of shock while it mitigates slowly over time. The model shows that with the oil shock and with current partial pass-through regime, a 10 percent rise in oil prices result in a 0.6 percent fall in growth while in the full pass-through situation, it can reduce the growth by 0.9 percent. Overall, the paper argues that the pass-through has differential impact on growth and inflation over the 12 th Plan period. Hence, the policy of oil price deregulation must be carefully weighed and prioritised.

N R Bhanumurthy; Surajit Das; Sukanya Bose; N R Bhanumurthy; Surajit Das; Sukanya Bose

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

EPRG WORKING PAPER The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non-Conventional Oil Supply and Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in a Hotelling framework and under CO2 constraints. The model assumes that nonconventional crude oil enters the market when conventional oil supply alone is unable to meet demand, and the social cost of CO2 is included in the calculation of the oil rent at that time. The results reveal the effect of a CO2 tax set at the social cost of CO2 on oil price and demand and the uncertainty associated with the time when conventional oil production might become unable to meet demand. The results show that a tax on CO2 emissions associated with fuel use would reduce oil demand despite the effect of lower future rents, and would delay the time when conventional oil supply is unable to satisfy demand. More precisely, between 81 and 99 % of the CO2 tax is carried into the oil price despite the counter-balancing effect of the reduced rent. A CO2 tax on fuel use set at the social cost of CO2 would delay by 25 years the time when conventional oil production is unable to meet oil demand, from 2019 to 2044 (mean value). The results show that this date is very sensitive to the price elasticity of demand and the demand growth rate, which shows the great potential of demand-side measures to smooth the transition towards low-carbon liquid fuel alternatives. www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk EPRG WORKING PAPER Keywords JEL Classification Oil supply and demand; Conventional and non-conventional oil; CO2 pricing; Social cost of CO2.

Aurlie Mjean; Chris Hope; Aurlie Mjean; Chris Hope

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added another set of charts listing the probability of the future realized price exceeding or falling below given price levels (see Figures 1A and 1B for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price probabilities). These charts are also available as spreadsheets allowing users to input their own prices to

416

Bristol BS8 1TNThe Real Interest Rate, the Real Oil Price, and US Unemployment Revisited  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The time series evidence on the relationship between unemployment and the real prices of capital and energy is re-examined for US data. In contrast to previous studies, results indicate that the real interest rate matters little, if at all, for equilibrium unemployment. Using a Markov Switching vector autoregressive method proposed by Psaradakis, Ravn, Sola (2005) [JApplEconometrics 20(5), pp. 665-683] to investigate time-varying Granger causality, the paper shows that the real rate helps forecast unemployment during NBER expansions only. Granger causality from the oil price to unemployment occurs in recessions. The results support the view that the price of crude induces at least some recessions, while not being a regular feature of the US business cycle.

Spyros Andreopoulos; Spyros Andreopoulos

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EIAs historic natural gas prices delivered to electricityremained until the natural gas price spike of 2000 sent itto hedge away natural gas price risk over a 10-year period

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1920s?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four ...

Blanchard, Olivier

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Oil and natural gas reserve prices : addendum to CEEPR WP 03-016 ; including results for 2003 revisions to 2001  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduction. A working paper entitled "Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Prices 1982-2002: Implications for Depletion and Investment Cost" was published in October 2003 (cited hereafter as Adelman & Watkins [2003]). Since then ...

Adelman, Morris Albert

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Michigan residential heating oil and propane price survey: 1995--1996 heating season. Final report  

SciTech Connect

This report summarizes the results of a survey of residential No. 2 distillate fuel (home heating oil) and liquefied petroleum gas (propane) prices over the 1995--1996 heating season in Michigan. The Michigan`s Public Service Commission (MPSC) conducted the survey under a cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA). This survey was funded in part by a grant from the DOE. From October 1995 through March 1996, the MPSC surveyed participating distributors by telephone for current residential retail home heating oil and propane prices. The MPSC transmitted the data via a computer modem to the EIA using the Petroleum Electronic Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). Survey results were published in aggregate on the MPSC World Wide Web site at http://ermisweb.state.mi.us/shopp. The page was updated with both residential and wholesale prices immediately following the transmission of the data to the EIA. The EIA constructed the survey using a sample of Michigan home heating oil and propane retailers. The sample accounts for different sales volumes, geographic location, and sources of primary supply.

Moriarty, C.

1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper takes on a narrative and quantitative approach to examine the dynamic effects of oil-price shocks to the U.S. economy. Based on market information collected from various oil-industry trade journals, we separate different kinds of oilprice shocks, and construct measures of exogenous oil shocks that are free of endogeneity and anticipatory problems. Estimation results indicate that oil shocks have had substantial and statistically significant impacts on the U.S. economy during the past two and a half decades. By contrast, traditional VAR identification strategies lead to a much weaker and insignificant real effect for the same period. Further investigation suggests that this discrepancy is possibly due to a lack of identification on the VAR approach, originating from mixing the exogenous oil-supply shocks with endogenous oil-price movements driven by changes in oil demand.

Tao Wu; Michele Cavallo

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per barrel of crude oil are given in following table: Gasoline Sale Price per barrel Gas 1

Phillips, David

423

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

424

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

425

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

426

The asymmetric effects of changes in price and income on energy and oil demand. Energy Journal 23(1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper estimates the effects on energy and oil demand of changes in income and oil prices, for 96 of the worlds largest countries, in per-capita terms. We examine three important issues: the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in oil prices; the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in income; and the different speeds of demand adjustment to changes in price and in income. Its main conclusions are the following: (1) OECD demand responds much more to increases in oil prices than to decreases; ignoring this asymmetric price response will bias downward the estimated response to income changes; (2) demands response to income decreases in many Non-OECD countries is not necessarily symmetric to its response to income increases; ignoring this asymmetric income response will bias the estimated response to income changes; (3) the speed of demand adjustment is faster to changes in income than to changes in price; ignoring this difference will bias upward the estimated response to income changes. Using correctly specified equations for energy and oil demand, the long-run response in demand for income growth is about 1.0 for Non-OECD Oil Exporters, Income Growers and perhaps all Non-OECD countries, and about 0.55 for OECD countries. These estimates for developing countries are significantly higher than current estimates used by the US Department of Energy. Our estimates for the OECD countries are also higher than those estimated recently by Schmalensee-Stoker-Judson (1998) and Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995), who ignore the (asymmetric) effects of prices on demand. Higher responses to income changes, of course, will increase projections of energy and oil demand, and of carbon dioxide emissions.

Dermot Gately; Hillard G. Huntington; Dermot Gately; Hillard G. Huntington; Joyce Dargay; Lawrence Goulder; Mary Riddel; Shane Streifel

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

,"U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by Sales Type"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Prices by Sales Type" Prices by Sales Type" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Residual Fuel Oil Average",2,"Monthly","9/2013","1/15/1983" ,"Data 2","Sulfur Less Than or Equal to 1%",2,"Monthly","9/2013","1/15/1983" ,"Data 3","Sulfur Greater Than 1%",2,"Monthly","9/2013","1/15/1983" ,"Release Date:","12/2/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","1/2/2014" ,"Excel File Name:","pet_pri_resid_dcu_nus_m.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_resid_dcu_nus_m.htm"

428

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

hedges include fixed- price natural gas supply contractsfixed-price gas supply contracts and natural gas storage.natural gas storage facilities. Since, in contrast to many financial hedges, physical supply

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Area" Area" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area",35,"Monthly","9/2013","1/15/1974" ,"Release Date:","12/2/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","1/2/2014" ,"Excel File Name:","pet_pri_dfp1_k_m.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_dfp1_k_m.htm" ,"Source:","Energy Information Administration" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/2/2013 3:15:37 AM"

430

An economist`s overview: Recent developments affecting future oil supply, prices  

SciTech Connect

This article features a discussion of the production of crude oil in non-OPEC countries compared to OPEC countries and concludes that while OPEC has lost significant market share over a fifteen-year period, it has regained much of that loss over the past five years. Also included is refining netback data as of December 22th for the US Gulf Coast, US West Coast, Singapore, and Rotterdam. Prices and taxes (US$) for fuels in North and South America are also given.

NONE

1995-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

431

,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

API Gravity" API Gravity" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity",6,"Monthly","9/2013","10/15/1993" ,"Release Date:","12/2/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","1/2/2014" ,"Excel File Name:","pet_pri_dfp3_k_m.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_dfp3_k_m.htm" ,"Source:","Energy Information Administration" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/2/2013 3:15:39 AM"

432

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Provide as a Hedgeenergy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued thatenergy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and renewable energy by equating it with the cost ofand renewable energy are often compared to the cost ofrenewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty inthe October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis werecharts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange(NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil)and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Information Center

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Last Winter's Price Spike Limited to Northeast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: This chart shows the day-to-day volatility in spot crude and heating oil prices, and clearly shows the regional nature of the price spike that occurred last winter. Due to a combination of extreme cold weather, low inventories, and refinery and transportation problems, New York Harbor spot prices shot up as high as $1.77 per gallon in a brief period in late January and early February. In June of this year, distillate spreads had dropped to 2.5 cents per gallon as a result of crude oil prices increasing faster than product prices. But by August spreads had strengthened to about 15 cents, and were as high as 21 cents on average in November 2000, which is almost 15 cents above average -- reflecting continued low stocks and the lack of even a normal summer/autumn build in inventories.

436

Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Respond Asymmet- rically to Crude Oil Price Changes? Theof the Pricing of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. Reportwholesale gasoline prices. Crude oil prices are obviously

Lewis, Matt

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

State heating oil and propane program: Final report. Survey of No.2 heating oil and propane prices at the retail level, October 1997 through March 1998  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Efficiency Division of the Vermont Department of Public Service (DPS) monitored the price and inventory of residential heating oil and propane during the 1997--98 heating season under a grant from the US Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration (EIA). DPS staff collected data biweekly between October 5, 1997 and March 16, 1998 on the retail price of {number_sign}2 home heating oil and propane by telephone survey. Propane price quoted was based on the rate for a residential home heating customer using 1,000+ per year. The survey included a sample of fuel dealers selected by the EIA, plus additional dealers and fuels selected by the DPS. The EIA weighted, analyzed, and reported the data collected from their sample.

1998-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Can Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Put Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Hogan, W. 1989. World Oil Price Projections: A Sensitivitybe significant in the case of oil price shocks and one mightreductions in oil demand and oil prices, indirectly reducing

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes? , QuarterlyS. , A. Shepard. Sticky Prices, Inventories, and MarketGas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctua- tions, Review of

Noel, Michael

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

natural gas is generally perceived to be much more volatile than the price of coal. Price regulation

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2003. Natural Gas and Energy Price Volatility. Arlington,Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Throughof Forward Natural Gas Prices Energy Policy. Vol 34, Issue

Bolinger, Mark A

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in the market, allowing natural gas price volatility to flowClearly, the variability of gas prices poses a major risk toincreasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

considering that natural gas prices (and gas pricein the market, allowing natural gas price volatility to flowincreasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

OPEC and lower oil prices: Impacts on production capacity, export refining, domestic demand and trade balances  

SciTech Connect

The East-West Center received a research grant from the US Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis to study the impact of lower oil prices on OPEC production capacity, on export refineries, and the petroleum trade. The project was later expanded to include balance-of-payments scenarios and impacts on OPEC domestic demand. The Department of Energy requested that the study focus on the Persian Gulf countries, as these countries have the largest share of OPEC reserves and production. Since then, staff members from the East-West Center have visited Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia and obtained detailed information from other countries. In addition, the East-West Center received from a number of large international oil companies and national governments valuable information on OPEC production capabilities. In order to safeguard the confidential nature of this information, these data have been aggregated in this report. The East-West Center considers the results presented to be the most up-to-date information and analysis available today. This report also provides a major reassessment of the export refining and economic competitiveness of Middle East refineries. As pioneers of the research on OPEC export refineries, the East-West Center has fully reevaluated the performance and outlook of these refineries as of the present. 21 figs., 20 tabs.

Fesharaki, F.; Fridley, D.; Isaak, D.; Totto, L.; Wilson, T.

1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Dynamics of the Oil Transition: Modeling Capacity, Costs, and Emissions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

response to high oil prices and geopolitical threats tofor the e?ect of the oil price through the price elasticityprojections, corresponding oil price series are extracted

Brandt, Adam R.; Farrell, Alexander E.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Alaska North Slope First Purchase Price (Dollars per Barrel)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Referring Pages: Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area; Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices for Selected Crude Streams

447

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

448

Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Agency. IEA, 2009, Energy prices and taxes, Working paper,prices, the shape of the energy price curves, and weatherto high and volatile energy prices. Most economists would

Jaffee, Dwight M.; Stanton, Richard; Wallace, Nancy E.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Open Automated Demand Response Dynamic Pricing Technologies and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

peak prices) to reduce electricity bill volatility. Smallwith higher or lower electricity bills than desired, since

Ghatikar, Girish

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

New York, New York 10003-6687The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper estimates the effects on energy and oil demand of changes in income and oil prices, for 96 of the worlds largest countries, in per-capita terms. We examine three important issues: the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in oil prices; the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in income; and the different speeds of demand adjustment to changes in price and in income. Its main conclusions are the following: (1) OECD demand responds much more to increases in oil prices than to decreases; ignoring this asymmetric price response will bias downward the estimated income elasticity; (2) demands response to income decreases in many non-OECD countries is not necessarily symmetric to its response to income increases; ignoring this asymmetric income response will bias the estimated income elasticity; (3) the speed of demand adjustment is faster to changes in income than to changes in price; ignoring this difference will bias upward the estimated response to income changes. Using correctly specified equations for energy and oil demand, the long-run elasticity for increases in income is about 0.55 for OECD energy and oil, and 1.0 or higher for Non-OECD Oil Exporters, Income Growers and perhaps all Non-OECD countries. These income elasticity

Dermot Gately; Hillard G. Huntington; Dermot Gately; Hillard G. Huntington; Dermot Gately; Hillard G. Huntington

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives Speaker(s): Douglas Hale Date: September 18, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Joseph Eto Energy derivatives came into being with the deregulation of the petroleum and natural gas industries in the early 1980s. Although derivatives-forwards, futures and options-have been used in American agriculture since the mid-1800's to manage price risk, they were unnecessary in regulated energy industries. Deregulation revealed that oil, gas and electricity prices are exceptionally volatile. Companies were forced to cope with the uncertainty in energy prices; they latched onto derivatives as one tool for managing that risk. Enron's collapse brought energy derivatives to public attention. Following the derivative linked

452

Refiner Retail Price of No. 4 Fuel Oil - U.S. Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices, Sales Volumes ... Download Series History: Definitions, Sources & Notes: Show Data By: ... Alabama-----1993-2013: Arkansas-----1993-2013: ...

453

What are the differences between various types of crude oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Electricity. Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & Efficiency. Energy use in homes ...

454

THE SIMPLE ECONOMICS OF COMMODITY PRICE SPECULATION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By 2006 it reached $70, and in July 2008 it peaked at $145. By late 2008 it had plummeted to about $30 before increasing to $110 in 2011. Are speculators at least partly to blame for these sharp price changes? We clarify the effects of speculators on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We explain the meaning of oil price speculation, how it can occur, and how it relates to investments in oil reserves, inventories, or derivatives (such as futures contracts). Turning to the data, we calculate counterfactual prices that would have occurred from 1999 to 2012 in the absence of speculation. Our framework is based on a simple and transparent model of supply and demand in the cash and storage markets for a commodity. It lets us determine whether speculation is consistent with data on production, consumption, inventory changes, and convenience yields given reasonable elasticity assumptions. We show speculation had little, if any, effect on prices and volatility.

Christopher R. Knittel; Robert S. Pindyck

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

OIl Speculation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Investor Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices Kenneth J. Singleton 1 August 10, 2011 1 Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, kenneths@stanford.edu. This research is the outgrowth of a survey paper I prepared for the Air Transport Association of America. I am grateful to Kristoffer Laursen for research assistance and to Kristoffer and Stefan Nagel for their comments. Abstract This paper explores the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on returns in crude-oil futures markets. I begin by arguing that informational frictions and the associated speculative activity may induce prices to drift away from "fundamental" values and show increased volatility. This is followed by a discussion of the interplay between imperfect infor- mation about real economic activity, including supply, demand, and inventory accumulation, and speculative

456

Price ratio of crude oil to natural gas continues to increase ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

457

Drop in U.S. gasoline prices reflects decline in crude oil costs ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

458

Gasoline prices rise due to increased crude oil costs - Today in ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

459

Price ratio of crude oil to natural gas increasing - Today in ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

460

WTI-Brent crude oil price spread has reached unseen levels - Today ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2010 February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic recovery increased. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will remain near current levels over the next few months, averaging $76 per barrel in February and March, before rising to about $82 per barrel in the late

462

Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asymmet- rically to Crude Oil Price Changes? The Quarterlyin West Texas Crude Oil Price Robust-Clustered standardin West Texas Crude Oil Price Robust-Clustered standard

Lewis, Matt

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

PRICE GOUGING  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

home heating costs? How will those be affected? With an overall increase in the price of heating oil and natural gas, we expect that there may be an increase in home heating costs...

464

Gasoline prices rise due to increased crude oil costs - Today in ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

However, as a result of vehicle fuel economy improvements, costs-per-mile-driven are not at record highs. Further, gasoline prices vary significantly by region, ...

465

Recently, S&P 500 Index and WTI crude oil futures price movements ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Greenhouse gas data, voluntary report- ing, electric power plant emissions. ... One notable exception to this recent price correlation came on August 9.

466

Refiner Retail Price of No. 4 Fuel Oil - U.S. Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

History; U.S. W: W : W : W ... Alabama-- - - - - 1994-2012: Arkansas-- ... Retail prices and Prime Supplier sales values shown for the current month ...

467

Total OECD Oil Stocks*  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: The most recent data show OECD inventories remaining at very low levels. EIA expects inventories to remain low through the coming year. This increases the potential for price volatility through the rest of the winter, and into the next gasoline season. Inventories are a good measure of the supply/demand balance that affects prices. A large over-supply (production greater than demand) will put downward pressure on prices, while under-supply will push prices upward. As global oil production changed relative to demand, the world moved from a period of over-supply in 1998 to one of under-supply in 1999 and 2000. OECD inventories illustrate the changes in the world petroleum balance. OECD inventories rose to high levels during 1997 and 1998 when production exceeded demand and prices dropped to around $10 per barrel in

468

Total OECD Oil Stocks*  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The most recent data show OECD inventories remaining at very low The most recent data show OECD inventories remaining at very low levels. EIA expects inventories to remain low through the coming year. This increases the potential for price volatility through the winter, and even extending to the next gasoline season. Inventories are a good measure of the supply/demand balance that effects prices. A large over-supply (production greater than demand) will put downward pressure on prices, while under-supply will push prices upward. As global oil production changed relative to demand, the world moved from a period of over-supply in 1998 to one of under-supply in 1999 and 2000. OECD inventories illustrate the changes in the world petroleum balance. OECD inventories rose to high levels during 1997 and 1998 when production exceeded demand and prices dropped to around $10 per barrel in

469

Total OECD Oil Stocks*  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: The most recent data show OECD inventories remaining at very low levels. EIA expects inventories to remain low through the coming year. This increases the potential for price volatility through the winter, and even extending to the next gasoline season. Inventories are a good measure of the supply/demand balance that effects prices. A large over-supply (production greater than demand) will put downward pressure on prices, while under-supply will push prices upward. As global oil production changed relative to demand, the world moved from a period of over-supply in 1998 to one of under-supply in 1999 and 2000. OECD inventories illustrate the changes in the world petroleum balance. OECD inventories rose to high levels during 1997 and 1998 when production exceeded demand and prices dropped to around $10 per barrel in

470

WORKING PAPER SERIESFEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES Crude Substitution: The Cyclical Dynamics of Oil Prices and the Skill Premium  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Higher oil-price shocks benefit unskilled workers relative to skilled workers: At the businesscycle frequency, energy prices and the skill premia display a strong, negative correlation. We assess the robustness of this negative correlation using several methods and data sources, including sector-level data. We find that the negative correlation is robust to different de-trending procedures, and the wages of unskilled workers in energy-intensive industries have a larger positive correlation with oil prices. We also estimate the parameters of an aggregate technology, which uses, among other inputs, energy and heterogeneous skills. We find that both capital-skill and capital-energy complementarity are responsible for this correlation pattern. As energy prices rise, the use of capital decreases and the demand for unskilled labor relative to skilled labor increases, resulting in lower skill premia. JEL classification: E24, E32, J24 Key words: skill heterogeneity, energy prices, business cycles, capital-skill complementarity

Linnea Polgreen; Pedro Silos; Linnea Polgreen; Pedro Silos; Nir Jaimovich; Karsten Jeske; Jim Nason; B. Ravikumar; Vctor Ros-rull; Ellis Tallman; Robert Tamura

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Easing the natural gas crisis: Reducing natural gas prices through increased deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Fuel Price Risk: Using Forward Natural Gas Prices Insteadof Gas Price Forecasts to Compare Renewable to Natural Gas-2003. Natural Gas and Energy Price Volatility. Arlington,

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; St. Clair, Matt

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Formulations Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices, 2000-2006 FigureI: Weekly Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices for2001- 2006 Crude Oil CA Regular Reformulated Figure II:

Gicheva, Dora; Hastings, Justine; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Michigan residential No. 2 fuel oil and propane price survey for the 1990/91 heating season. Final report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

Not Available

1991-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Michigan residential No. 2 fuel oil and propane price survey for the 1990/91 heating season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

Not Available

1991-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook. Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast . Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance

476

2012 Brief: Average 2012 crude oil prices remain near 2011 levels ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Brent crude oil averaged $111.67 per barrel, slightly above the 2011 average of $111.26. West Texas Intermediate oil averaged $94.05 per barrel in 2012, ...

477

AEO2012 considers three cases for the future of world oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... coal-to-liquids, biomass-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, extra-heavy oils, and oil shale. Download CSV Data. The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) ...

478

The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non- Conventional Oil Supply and Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

assumes that nonconventional crude oil enters the market when conventional oil supply alone is unable to meet demand, and the social cost of CO2 is included in the calculation of the oil rent at that time. The results reveal the effect of a CO2 tax set...

Mjean, Aurlie; Hope, Chris

479

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are theprices are driven by oil prices, moreover, and oil isby uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean real

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "oil price volatility" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Emissions Surcharge Revenues Oil Price Price elas= -0.1 elasEmissions Surcharge Revenues Oil Price Price elas= -0.1 elasotherwise result if oil prices remain at current levels. . o

Borenstein, Severin

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Natural Gas Price Uncertainty: Establishing Price Floors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report presents the results of comprehensive calculations of ceiling and floor prices for natural gas. Ceiling prices are set by the price levels at which it is more economic to switch from natural gas to residual fuel oil in steam units and to distillate in combined cycle units. Switching to distillate is very rare, whereas switching to fuel oil is quite common, varying between winter and summer and increasing when natural gas prices are high or oil prices low. Monthly fuel use was examined for 89 ...

2007-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

483

LNG price parity with oil clouds future of European gas market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Europe's international gas trade may have to mark time while the gas industry determines whether the fuel can remain competitive in the wake of Algeria's recent political victory - a high price for its LNG exports to France. Potential gas buyers will face sellers seeking to emulate the $5.10/million Btu price level. The latest conflict, between Algeria and Italy, is preventing start-up of the completed trans-Mediterranean pipeline. Large gas-price increases across Europe would prompt bulk steam-raisers to move to other fuels; the premium household and commercial markets would not be able to absorb the surplus. If the trend of LNG price parity with crude continues, gas could lose a substantial share of its European market and LNG projects will continue to be abandoned.

Vielvoye, R.

1982-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

484

International Energy Outlook - World Oil Markets  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World Oil Markets World Oil Markets International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Markets In the IEO2004 forecast, OPEC export volumes are expected to more than double while non-OPEC suppliers maintain their edge over OPEC in overall production. Prices are projected to rise gradually through 2025 as the oil resource base is further developed. Throughout most of 2003, crude oil prices remained near the top of the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC “basket price.” OPEC producers continued to demonstrate disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Throughout 2003, the upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of three factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden loss of much of Venezuela’s oil exports. Although the other OPEC producers agreed to increase their production capacities to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by internal conflict in Nigeria. Third, prospects for a return to normalcy in the Iraqi oil sector remained uncertain as residual post-war turmoil continued in Iraq.

485

Low natural gas prices in 2012 reduced returns for some oil ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Evaluate Energy database and company financial statements. Note: Results based on data from 60 oil and natural ...

486

Impact of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Economies in the Age of Globalization.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Early in the past century, oil has powered economic growth in industrialized economies. Towards the end of the 20th century, as emerging and underdeveloped economies (more)

Soh feussi, Ancel Raynaud

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Oil futures price curve has steepened over the past six months ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... the future can be used as an indicator of longer term supply and demand expectations. Costs to store oil, opportunity costs associated with long-term market ...

488

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

between natural gas and oil prices. In both cases, our ownbetween natural gas and oil prices, make the case thatgeneration may also reduce oil prices. Although we emphasize

Bolinger, Mark A

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: This chart illustrates why EIA sees crude oil prices staying relatively high. It shows global inventories, as measured by OECD petroleum stocks. EIA sees a tenuous supply/demand balance over the remainder of 2001. Global inventories remain low, and need to recover to more adequate levels of forward demand coverage in order to avoid continued price volatility. The most recent data show OECD inventories remaining at very low levels. Low inventories increase the potential for price volatility throughout 2001. Inventories are a good measure of the supply/demand balance that affects prices. A large over-supply (production greater than demand) will put downward pressure on prices, while under-supply will push prices upward. OECD inventories illustrate the changes in the world petroleum

490

Gasoline Prices  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Gasoline Prices Gasoline Price Data Sign showing gasoline prices Local Prices: Find the cheapest gasoline prices in your area. State & Metro Area Prices: Average prices from AAA's...

491

A Survey of Utility Experience with Real Time Pricing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

than the RTP energy price, volatile market prices provide noof the market price for financially firm energy (quoted aof energy that could be purchased at market prices that were

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Career Services Pricing Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Job/Resume Posting and Prices Career Services Pricing Information Career Services Career Services chemistry jobs classifieds employment fats global help wanted job Jobs member membership network oils science jobs ...

493

Retail Price Changes Lag Spot Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Notes: While EIA cannot claim to explain all of the factors that drive retail gasoline prices, we have had a fair amount of success in exploring the relationship between wholesale and retail prices. In particular, we have looked closely at the "pass-through" of changes in spot prices to the retail market. This graph shows a weighted national average of spot prices for regular gasoline -both conventional and reformulated (shown in red), and EIA's weekly survey price for retail regular (again both conventional and reformulated). As you can see, spot prices tend to be more volatile (and would be even more so on a daily basis), while these changes are smoother by the time they reach the retail pump. Furthermore, by looking at the peaks, you can see the retail prices seem to lag the spot price changes

494

Crude Price & Differential  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... , making it more competitive with other boiler fuels, and the price of residual fuel relative to crude oil increases. Thus, both the light ...

495

Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices, 2000-2006 Figure I:Weekly Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices for 2001- 2006 Crudeargue that increases in oil prices may lead to recessions

Gicheva, Dora; Hastings, Justine; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Do Americans Consume Too Little Natural Gas? An Empirical Test of Marginal Cost Pricing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

include the spot price of Brent crude oil. We instrument forprices by customer class, city gate prices, the spot price for North Sea crude oil (Brent

Davis, Lucas; Muehlegger, Erich

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Sentiment proxies: computing market volatility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Macroeconomic announcements can have an influential effect on the price, and related volatility, of an object traded in financial markets. Modeling the impact of a relevant announcement on a specific commodity is of interest in building financial models ...

Stephen Kelly; Khurshid Ahmad

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost...

Mohaddes, Kamiar

2012-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

499

Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?  

SciTech Connect

This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.

NONE

1999-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010 December 2012 (February 2013-Revised Tables 5, 6 and 15 and associated links) Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010 ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views