National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for oil price forecast

  1. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  2. World oil market outlook: recent history and forecasts of world oil prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-08-01

    Recent world oil price trends and pricing behavior by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are examined. An outlook for consumption, production and prices in the world oil market, both for the short-term horizon through 1982 and for the midterm period from 1985 through 1995 is presented. A historical review focuses on OPEC activity in the period from January 1980 to May 1981. Several sensitivity analyses and the impact of supply disruptions are used to determine projections. The appendix provides data on world crude oil prices for each of 23 countries for January, May, and June of 1980 and May of 1981. 22 tables, 9 figures.

  3. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  4. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  5. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  6. I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and not treat them as an unusual occurrence in the next 20 years. In the long term with cap and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oil prices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only that biofuels are made from food crops, the discussion is correct that fertilizer demands will drive gas prices

  7. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

  8. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  9. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-01-01

    historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices.historical difficulty in accurately forecasting future oil prices.

  10. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),the Predictive Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices,” EnergyFigure 3. Price of crude oil contract maturing December of

  11. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton Junedirectly. Understanding Crude Oil Prices* James D. Hamilton

  12. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  13. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    historical data for claiming to be able to predict oil pricehistorical data. The second is to look at the predictions of economic theory as to how oil prices

  14. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1 Table 1.101 (Million Short Tons) U.S. Energy5Are

  15. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  16. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2001 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  17. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2000 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  18. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  19. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  20. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2002 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  1. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  2. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  3. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  4. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  5. Crude Oil Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

  6. Crude Oil Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    20.86 20.67 20.47 20.24 20.32 19.57 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

  7. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  9. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  13. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  14. Time Series Methods for ForecastingElectricityMarket Pricing Zoran Obradovic Kevin Tomsovic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Obradovic, Zoran

    of traditional commodities, such as,oil or agricultural products. Clearly, assessing the effectivenessTime Series Methods for ForecastingElectricityMarket Pricing Zoran Obradovic Kevin Tomsovic PO Box

  15. Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilson, WIlliam; Aickelin, Uwe

    2010-01-01

    We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  18. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  20. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  1. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  2. Oil prices spike to over barreland price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oil prices spike to over $145/ barreland price of electricity exceeds $0.50/kWh in U.S. Virgin installs waste heat recovery plant, adding19 MWofpower withoutburningasingledropof additionaloil VIEO Biomass Grid Waste-to- Energy Landfill Gas LEGEND Solar EDIN Energy Development in Island Nations EDIN

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  4. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  6. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    From EIA, “World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Otherfrom EIA, “World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Otherfrom EIA, “World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other

  7. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    can be the month of loading, the month of landing, or sometime between those events. Prices for crude oil can be determined at a time other than the acquisition date. See the...

  8. Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertini, Robert L.

    Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings/Fuel Price Travel Cost Macro-Economy Passenger: VMT or VKT Freight: Ton-Mile or Ton-KM Passenger Mode-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

  9. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    Figure 5. Monthly oil production for Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait,day. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq Kuwait Figure 6.and the peak in U.S. oil production account for the broad

  10. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    per day. Monthly crude oil production Iran Iraq KuwaitEIA Table 1.2, “OPEC Crude Oil Production (Excluding Lease2008, from EIA, “Crude Oil Production. ” Figure 16. U.S.

  11. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    and Income on Energy and Oil Demand,” Energy Journal 23(1),the faster its growth in oil demand over the last half ofthe income elasticity of oil demand to fall signi?cantly.

  12. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline,” NBER Working Paper.2006. “China’s Growing Demand for Oil and Its Impact on U.S.and Income on Energy and Oil Demand,” Energy Journal 23(1),

  13. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    in U.S. real GDP and oil consumption, 1949-2006. slope =Historical Chinese oil consumption and projection of trend.1991-2006: Chinese oil consumption in millions of barrels

  14. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    geological limits, global production of crude oil next yearGlobal production of crude petroleum. Notes: Bold line: From EIA, “World Production of Crude Oil,

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  16. Essays on Forecasting and Hedging Models in the Oil Market and Causality Analysis in the Korean Stock Market 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Hankyeung

    2012-10-19

    , the nature of forecasting crude oil prices based on financial data for the oil and oil product market is examined. As crack spread and oil-related Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have enabled more consumers and investors to gain access to the crude oil...

  17. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  18. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  19. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  20. What's Driving Oil Prices? James L. Smith

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Donnell, Tom

    1 What's Driving Oil Prices? James L. Smith Cary M. Maguire Chair in Oil & Gas Management Critical Issues in Energy Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas November 2, 2006 The Price of OPEC Oil ($/bbl) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Real Price ($2005) #12;2 Hubbert's Curve (Peak Oil

  1. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    an alternative investment strategy to buying oil today andinvestments necessary to catch up. This was the view o?ered by oilinvestment strategy. date t) in order to purchase a quantity Q barrels of oil

  2. Lower oil prices and their implications for energy research and development policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-01-01

    Two panels of witnesses from federal agencies, industrial and university research organizations, and the Congressional Budget Office discussed the effect that lower world oil prices might have on the level of government funding for energy research and development. The witnesses were asked to consider the long-term price of oil; recent changes in oil price, supply, and demand; the adequacy of projection models and forecasts in assessing the impacts of lower oil prices; and whether it is appropriate to link research and development funding to oil prices. Additional reports, analyses, statements, and responses to committee questions submitted for the record follow the testimony of the eight witnesses. (DCK)

  3. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    disruptions, and the peak in U.S. oil production account foroil increased 81.1% (logarithmically) between January 1979 and the peak

  4. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    that the income elasticity of U.S. petroleum demand hasincome growth over the period and 1.11 for 11 oil-exporting countries.. And it is the latter countries where petroleum

  5. Oil Price Volatility

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3+ LeaseWellhead Price

  6. World Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1 Table 1.10 Cooling Degree-Days by038.2

  7. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  8. Residential heating oil price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration (EIA)heating oil

  9. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases Theheating oil

  10. Residential heating oil prices decline

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9,heating oil

  11. Residential heating oil prices decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil prices

  12. Residential heating oil prices decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil prices5, 2014

  13. Residential heating oil prices decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil prices5,

  14. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01

    per year until 2020, while oil demand is expected to groweconomic growth and world oil prices, and four other casesand higher and lower world oil prices. Assumptions for

  15. Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedl, Herwig

    Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Vika Koban, Milos Pantos of electricity price under normal conditions with the spike time series caused by extreme conditions in order to obtain a better forecast of the spot price. Short term electricity price forecasting has become

  16. International transmission of oil price effects and the derivation of optimal oil prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marquez, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to study the international transmission of oil-price effects and the derivation of optimal oil prices not as two separate problems but rather as one problem by recognizing that changes in oil prices affect real income of oil importers and thus feed back to the demand for oil faced by OPEC. To study the international transmission of oil price changes, the author develops a three-region world model where real income, prices, and international trade are endogenously determined. With this model he derives the comparative statics of oil price changes. He also analyzes the feedback effect of oil price changes, allowing for counterinflationary policies in oil-importing countries. A modified version of the theoretical model is econometrically estimated with data for 1960-1979. The quantitative dimension of oil price changes using dynamic multipliers is studied. Also studied are the impacts of restrictive fiscal policy in DC's, greater absorption by OPEC, and increased financial transfers to LDC's on real income, in the international oil market, on inflation, and on international trade of manufacturers and raw materials. It was found that not recognizing the feedback effects of oil price increases introduces a significant upward bias in the total price elasticity and in the optimal oil price path, neither of which is consistent with OPEC's best interest.

  17. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating oil price

  18. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheatingheating oil price

  19. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases The average

  20. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases The average6,

  1. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases The average6,5,

  2. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases The

  3. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases Theheating

  4. Residential heating oil price increases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases

  5. Residential heating oil price increases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9, 2015

  6. Residential heating oil price increases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9, 20155, 2015

  7. Residential heating oil price increases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9, 20155,

  8. Residential heating oil prices available

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9, 20155,heating

  9. Residential heating oil prices available

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9,

  10. Residential heating oil prices decline

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9,heating

  11. Residential heating oil prices decline

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9,heating2, 2014

  12. Residential heating oil prices decline

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price decreases9,heating2,

  13. Residential heating oil prices decline

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil price

  14. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  15. Crude Oil Prices Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  17. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    2003 Papapetrou, E. 2001. "Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market,2003. Sadorsky, P. 1999. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock MarketS. Awerbuch. 2002 (draft). Oil Price Volatility and Economic

  18. Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud May 11, 2014 Abstract This paper presents a survey of electricity price forecasting for the Nordic region, and performs that time series models more appropriate for forecasting electricity prices, compared to machine learning

  19. Forecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    finance. GAs are algorithms that emulate evolution and natural selection to solve a problem. A populationForecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery Alma Lilia Garcia to financial problems. In particular, the use of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), for financial purposes, has

  20. Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts Electricity prices in the Council's Power Plan are forecast using the AURORATM Electricity Market Model of the entire prices at several pricing points in the West, four of which are in the Pacific Northwest. The one most

  1. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  3. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01

    index.html. Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for FuturesError STEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futuresof forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the

  4. The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ramberg, David J.

    Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

  5. A new era for oil prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, John V.

    2006-01-01

    Since 2003 the international oil market has been moving away from the previous 20-year equilibrium in which prices fluctuated around $25/bbl (in today's dollars). The single most important reason is that growing demand has ...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  7. The strategic consequences of the oil price collapse

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schuler, H.

    1987-01-01

    This book discusses the geopolitical consequences of the oil-price drop in such countries as Indonesia, Nigeria, Algeria, Mexico and Egypt. It also assesses the overall implications of the drop in oil prices on oil-producing areas.

  8. Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices Ahmed distributed lags (NARDL) mod- el to examine the pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas-through of crude oil prices to the prices of refined petroleum products and other commodities. Most of them make

  9. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  11. Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices, The

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the time series econometric relationship between the Henry Hub natural gas price and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price.

  12. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J

    2014-12-02

    is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating...

  13. Fact #742: August 27, 2012 Oil Price and Economic Growth

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Major oil price shocks have disrupted world energy markets five times in the past 30 years (1973-74, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1999-2000, and 2008). Most of the oil price shocks were followed by an...

  14. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simmons, M.R. [Simmons and Co. International, Houston, TX (United States)

    1997-02-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry`s practice of maintaining crude stocks at ``Just in time`` inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers` information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996.

  15. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4,heating oil

  16. Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dahlquist, Kam D.

    Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis S. Kirk Elwood Abstract: The author explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Although oil-price shocks are the most commonly cited examples of aggregate supply shocks

  17. Oil prices and government bond risk premiums Herv Alexandre*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Oil prices and government bond risk premiums By Hervé Alexandre*º Antonin de Benoist * Abstract : This article analyses the impact of oil price on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oil price on government bond risk premiums. We develop

  18. Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    N E 2 011 by Marco J. Lombardi and Ine Van Robays DO FINANCIAL INVESTORS DESTABILIZE THE OIL PRICE? WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 13 4 6 J U N E 2011 DO FINANCIAL...

  19. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil

  20. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3, 2014

  1. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3, 2014heating

  2. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,

  3. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4, 2013

  4. Residential heating oil prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4,

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  6. Business Cycle Effects on Metal and Oil Prices: Understanding the Price Retreat of 2008-9

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Business Cycle Effects on Metal and Oil Prices: Understanding the Price Retreat of 2008 of macroeconomic business cycles on six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and oil prices. Reduced-form equations for real metal prices that depend separately on the trend and cyclical components of global real

  7. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  8. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating oil priceheating

  9. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating oil

  10. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating oilheating oil

  11. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheatingheating oil

  12. World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2007-01-01

    Over the long term, the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) projection for world oil prices -- defined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners -- is similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

  13. Oil vs. Natural Gas: Prices and US Economy Wide Factors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Oil vs. Natural Gas: Prices and US Economy Wide Factors UC Davis October 1, 2015 Stephen Brown.S. reliance on imported natural gas · Substantially lower natural gas prices · How has natural gas consumption responded? · Will natural gas prices remain low relative to oil? · Brown and Yücel (2008); Huntington (2007

  14. Import policy effects on the optimal oil price

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suranovic, S.M. [George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States)

    1994-12-31

    A steady increase in oil imports leaves oil importing countries increasingly vulnerable tofuture oil price shocks. Using a variation of the U.S. EIA`s oil market simulation model, equilibria displaying multiple price shocks is derived endogenously as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of OPEC. Here we investigate the effects that an oil import tariff and a petroleum stock release policy may have on an OPEC optimal price path. It is shown that while both policies can reduce the magnitude of future price shocks neither may be politically or technically feasible. 21 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    World oil prices in Annual Energy Outlook 2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

  16. An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boisvert, Jeff

    on monthly historical data of nominal gold price. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction classification: E31 O13 Q32 Keywords: Historical gold market Forecasting mineral prices Long-term trend reverting and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk

  17. Will Reducing Oil Taxes Spur Production? The Critical Question in Alaska's FY 2014 Budget Process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBeath, Jerry; Wright, Glenn

    2015-01-01

    turn on investments in 2013. Oil Prices In the last dozenyears, the low point for oil prices was at the start of theDecember, DOR forecast an oil price of $105.68/barrel for FY

  18. Lower Oil Prices: A Reason to Give Thanks GENE EPSTEIN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Lower Oil Prices: A Reason to Give Thanks By GENE EPSTEIN Nov. 29, 2014 1:31 a.m. ET I give thanks thanks for an oil price that fell below $70 a barrel Friday, mainly because it bodes well for general early this year ("Here Comes $75 Oil," March 31). Amy Jaffe, executive director of energy

  19. World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    World oil prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

  20. Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

  1. Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

  2. Production and pricing patterns in the international crude oil market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischer, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    This study focuses on measuring the patterns of production and pricing of the major oil-exporting countries over the past decade. It conducts a series of empirical investigations, relying largely on quarterly data, into the determinants of the distribution of oil liftings in the OPEC areas, including the significance of relative crude oil price incentives, the stability of oil prices and market shares, the components of the residual demand for OPEC oil with emphasis on fluctuations in speculative demand for oil inventories, the impact of effective capacity utilization and speculative demand on major price escalations, and the sensitivity of Saudi Arabian price preferences to evolving net demand reaction to higher oil prices and to the share it is able to retain of the OPEC market. The background for this analysis is provided by a review of the historical evolution of oil and energy consumption, production and development patterns during the postwar era, and the reversal of theoretical frameworks for analyzing the international oil market are described, and the rationale for the noncompetitive view of oil prices and production in major exporting countries is detailed. Finally, the transformation of the structure of crude oil marketing over the past decade is analyzed, emphasizing growing competitive trends in the industry mixed with residual oligopolistic tendencies.

  3. The effects of oil prices and other economic indicators on housing prices in Calgary, Canada

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Padilla, Mercedes A. (Mercedes Angeles)

    2005-01-01

    This thesis aims to answer: (1) to what extent can oil prices and other economic indicators predict the changes in housing prices and rent in the Calgary single family housing market and (2) to determine what the lag time ...

  4. The imperfect price-reversibility of world oil demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gately, D. [New York Univ., NY (United States)

    1993-12-31

    This paper examines the price-reversibility of world oil demand, using price-decomposition methods employed previously on other energy demand data. We conclude that the reductions in world oil demand following the oil price increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s. The response to price cuts in the 1980s is perhaps only one-fifth that for price increases in the 1970s. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. We also consider the effect on demand of a price recovery (sub-maximum increase) in the 1990s - due either to OPEC or to a carbon tax-specifically whether the effects would be as large as for the price increases of the 1970s or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980s. On this the results are uncertain, but a tentative conclusion is that the response to a price recovery would lie midway between the small response to price cuts and the larger response to increases in the maximum historical price. Finally, we demonstrate two implications of wrongly assuming that demand is perfectly price-reversible. First, such an assumption will grossly overestimate the demand response to price declines of the 1980s. Secondly, and somewhat surprisingly, it causes an underestimate of the effect of income growth on future demand. 21 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Metabolic paths in world economy and crude oil price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Picciolo, Francesco; Ruzzenenti, Franco

    2015-01-01

    In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oil prices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010, by means of Markov Chain analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oil price and major economic indicators.

  6. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  7. Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

    2004-01-01

    Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S. , isa dollar denominated oil price. References Blanchard O.J.

  8. Forecasting Fuel Prices. http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-13.htm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecasting Fuel Prices. http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-13.htm Not only depends on what is the best to worst, depending on your point of view. The truth is that the move away from non green fuels is not numerical, but one that is of insight and has perspective. The price of fuels is one that has to also

  9. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherreference-case fuel price projection from the EIA or someprices and the AEO gas price projections over the past two

  11. How regulators should use natural gas price forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Costello, Ken

    2010-08-15

    Natural gas prices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Natural gas prices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High natural gas prices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make natural gas generation the most economical. (author)

  12. The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seymour, A.

    1991-01-01

    The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    to electricity generators to the same price projections fromPrices Delivered to Electricity Generators, Nominal $/MMBtu Each AEO projection

  14. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    to electricity generators to the same price projections fromPrices Delivered to Electricity Generators, Nominal $/MMBtu Each AEO projection

  15. The response of world energy and oil demand to income growth and changes in oil prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dargay, J. [Oxford Univ. (United Kingdom). Transport Studies Unit; Gately, D. [New York Univ., NY (United States). Economics Dept.

    1995-11-01

    This paper reviews the path of world oil demand over the past three decades, and the effects of both the oil price increases of the 1970s and the oil price decreases of the 1980s. Compared with demand in the industrialized countries, demand in the Less Developed Countries (LDC) has been more responsive to income growth, less responsive to price increases, and more responsive to price decreases. The LDC has also exhibited much greater heterogeneity in income growth and is effect on demand. The authors expect a smaller demand response to future price increases than to those of the 1970s. The demand response to future income growth will be not substantially smaller than in the past. Finally, given the prospect of growing dependence on OPEC oil, in the event of a major disruption the lessened price-responsiveness of demand could cause dramatic price increases and serious macroeconomic effects.

  16. Essays on oil price shocks and financial markets 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Jiayue

    2012-06-26

    This thesis is composed of three chapters, which can be read independently. The first chapter investigates how oil price volatility affects the investment decisions for a panel of Japanese firms. The model is estimated ...

  17. Past, present and future evolution of oil prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Corsetti, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This thesis reviews how oil price has evolved throughout time since it was discovered and commercially exploited in 1859 in Pennsylvania. Rather than a pure economic study, this thesis illustrates how major historic and ...

  18. Fact Sheet: Gas Prices and Oil Consumption Would Increase Without...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    addressing a number of questions related to biofuels, food, and gasoline and diesel prices. This is a fact sheet on how biofuels are reducing America's dependence on oil. Fact...

  19. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    renewables can provide price certainty over longer terms. In6 This additiona l level of price discovery in longer-datedreplicate the long-term price stability that renewables can

  20. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 2 for 5-year price projections), the EIA has, in AEOgenerators to the same price projections from AEO 2001-2006.Strip to AEO 2007 Gas Price Projection Picking the Correct

  1. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    market-based forward price projections argues for furtherAEO 2008 and NYMEX price projections. Nominal ¢/kWh (at 7000that exceed the AEO price projection) described above. If

  2. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherreference-case fuel price projection from the EIA or someHenry Hub to the same price projections from AEO 2007-2008.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

  4. Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to thethe levelized costs of fixed-price renewable generation withthe cost of fixed-price renewable generation be compared to

  6. Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LeBlanc, Michael; Chinn, Menzie David

    2004-01-01

    Historical oil crises have been characterized by widespread concern about the pricehistorical in nature, it would be a mistake to conclude that the impact of oil prices

  7. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  8. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights1 M E R OU.S.29 Energy

  9. EIA: High Oil Prices, GHG Controls Would Help Clean Energy Grow...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EIA: High Oil Prices, GHG Controls Would Help Clean Energy Grow EIA: High Oil Prices, GHG Controls Would Help Clean Energy Grow April 1, 2009 - 11:35am Addthis The growth of...

  10. Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herce, Miguel Angel

    2006-01-01

    Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

  11. Accelerated Depletion: Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2000-01-01

    Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

  12. Oil and natural gas reserve prices, 1982-2002 : implications for depletion and investment cost

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adelman, Morris Albert

    2003-01-01

    A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ? of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a ...

  13. OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

  14. The Price of Oil Risk Steven D. Baker, Bryan R. Routledge,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    demand of a firm in the oil market? To address this question, however, we need a clearer understandingThe Price of Oil Risk Steven D. Baker, Bryan R. Routledge, September 2011 [December 20, 2012 multiple goods. We use this optimal consumption allocation to derive a pricing kernel and the price of oil

  15. On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    /US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metalsEA 4272 On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting,version1-17Apr2014 #12;On the relationship between the Prices of oil and the Precious Metals: Revisiting

  16. Estimating the effect of future oil prices on petroleum engineering project investment yardsticks. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mendjoge, Ashish V

    2004-09-30

    This study proposes two methods, (1) a probabilistic method based on historical oil prices and (2) a method based on Gaussian simulation, to model future prices of oil. With these methods to model future oil prices, we can calculate the ranges...

  17. The oil price really is a speculative bubble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eckaus, Richard S.

    2008-01-01

    The oil price really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the ...

  18. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4,heating

  19. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4,heating0,

  20. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating oil3,4,heating0,5,

  1. Oil Price and the Dollar Virginie Coudert

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    , published in "Energy Studies Review 15, 2 (2008) ?" #12;1 Introduction Even after a decrease in the last 25 of primary energy and 95% of the transportation sector relies on it (Carnot & Hagege (2004)). The real oil to the situation in the Middle East (terrorism in Iraq and Saudi Arabia) and to the political troubles in Venezuela

  2. Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    exploration, and lower expected costs of finding and producing these fuels. The theories of oil and gas supply several years, views of energy markets, supplies and costs have altered dramatically. Changing technology innovation and application to the point where many industry observers expect few real sustained price

  3. Microsoft Word - high-oil-price.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11

  4. Oil price shocks and their short-and long-term effects on the Chinese economy Weiqi Tang a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matthews, Adrian

    a historical record of US$147 per barrel in July 2008. The adverse impact of such oil-price shocksOil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy Weiqi Tang a , Libo-correction model Oil-price shocks Price transmission mechanisms Investment Output Producer/consumer price index

  5. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating

  6. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating9, 2014 Residential

  7. Residential heating oil prices virtually unchanged

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating9, 2014

  8. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01

    Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .

  9. Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aickelin, Uwe

    Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin School concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time se- ries data insight into the properties of the crude oil market. 1 Introduction The investigation of time series data

  10. Using the Hubbert curve to forecast oil production trends worldwide 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Almulla, Jassim M.

    2007-09-17

    Crude oil is by far the most important commodity to humans after water and food. Having a continuous and affordable supply of oil is considered a basic human right in this day and age. That is the main reason oil companies are in a constant search...

  11. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  12. Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

  13. Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Fuel Price Assumptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to higher oil and natural gas costs. Increased use of coal instead of natural gas increased pressure on rail The Fifth Power Plan includes price forecasts for natural gas, oil, and coal. Natural gas prices have by far in energy prices in 2000. This increase followed more than a decade of low energy prices since the mid-1980s

  14. The relationship between crude oil and natural gas spot prices and its stability over time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ramberg, David J. (David John)

    2010-01-01

    The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An ...

  15. Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

  16. Table 42. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by PAD District and State

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 203 Table 42. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by PAD District and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) - Continued...

  17. Table 42. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by PAD District and State

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 203 Table 42. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by PAD District and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) - Continued...

  18. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price........................................................................................ 13 Fuel Prices................................................................................................................................. 14 Carbon Dioxide Prices

  19. Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

    2006-10-30

    This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  1. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Research Home > Groups > Future of Condition Monitoring for Wind Turbines Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 11 June, 2015 - 03:19 Base Oil...

  2. Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fievet, Lucas; Cauwels, Peter; Sornette, Didier

    2014-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.

  3. Fact #579: July 13, 2009 Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2008

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Major oil price shocks have disrupted world energy markets five times in the past 30 years – 1973-74, 1979-80, 1990-1991, 1999-2000 and again in 2008. Most of the oil price shocks were followed by...

  4. Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmad, Sajjad

    Mick Jagger Explains High Crude Oil Prices How can Mick Jagger of The Rolling Stones help explain the current high crude oil price? It does not relate to Mick' short stint at the London School of Economics for crude oil, that they attempted to control the price of crude on international markets. Their ability

  5. Does Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks with another spike in gasoline

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmad, Sajjad

    with another spike in gasoline prices and their reported record profits. Some months ago, during the last gasoline price spike, Congress summoned the executives of the Big Oil companies to testify aboutDoes Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks

  6. Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington**

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington** March 22, 2012 Abstract A number of authors have claimed that the strong upward movement in commodity prices). Cuddington and Jerrett (2008) provide statistical evidence on the presence of super cycles in metals prices

  7. Petroleum industry sensitivity and world oil market prices: The Nigerian example

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kalu, T.Ch.U. [Univ. of Ilorin (Nigeria)

    1995-12-31

    Most empirical studies have focused on the demand side of energy with little or no attention to the supply side. To deal with this defect, this paper adopts a microanalytic approach to the problem of the individual oil firms to provide a basis for determining the effects of changes in such macro-variables as prices on their operations. However, instead of the familiar econometric approach to energy studies, a goal programming approach is adopted. Using a multinational oil company as a case study, the effects of change in crude oil prices are examined. The results, among other things, support the hypersensitivity of oil companies to changes in economic cycles, the price inelasticity of demand for crude oil in the short run, and a time lag between price change and the time an oil company responds to it. The management and policy implications of the results are also discussed. 28 refs., 3 tabs.

  8. World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2008-01-01

    Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both "above ground" and "below ground" factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. The Energy Information Administration will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

  9. World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

  10. World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    The oil prices reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars. Projections of future supply and demand are made for "liquids," a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquids -- in addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

  11. Business cycles in oil economies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Al-Mutairi, N.H.

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oil price is ignored; the few studies that use oil price as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oil price impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oil price are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oil price are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon.

  12. Changes in exchange rates and oil prices for Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, R.L.

    1994-12-31

    When the U.S. dollar weakens significantly against currencies of other major trading nations, oil-exporting countries often become concerned about both loss of purchasing power for their imports as well as capital losses on dollar-denominated assets. This paper addresses these issues by (1) examining previous studies, (2) reviewing the historical oil price movements of oil denominated in different G-7 currencies, (3) performing a causality test between changes in exchange rates and the price of oil, (4) using an analytical model to relate changes in exchange rates and the price of oil through the world oil market; and (5) evaluating the gains and losses in terms of purchasing power of Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for selected historical periods.

  13. Lower oil prices also cutting winter heating oil and propane bills

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIARegional energy challengesLower oil prices

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    Theis. 2001. “Which way the natural gas price: an attempt toHedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. ” http://Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices: The Impact of

  15. A reexamination of the crude oil price-unemployment relationship in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Uri, N.D. [Economic Research Service, Washington, DC (United States). Natural Resources and Environment Div.; Boyd, R. [Ohio Univ., Athens, OH (United States). Dept. of Economics

    1996-04-01

    This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment and the rate of unemployment in the US. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between the rate of unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impact of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment is exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in unemployment and the volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.

  16. The impact of crude-oil price volatility on agricultural employment in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Uri, N.D. [Dept. of Agriculture, Washington, DC (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This study focuses on the impact of fluctuations in the price of crude oil on agricultural employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate is examined.

  17. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    stability is beyond reproach. As long-term price stabilityexplanation stands beyond reproach, and it is perhaps morestability is beyond reproach. As long-term price stability

  18. Naval petroleum reserves: Oil sales procedures and prices at Elk Hills, April through December 1986

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    The Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve is located near Bakersfield, California and ranks seventh among domestic producing oil fields. In Feb. 1986 the Department of Energy awarded contracts to 16 companies for the sale of about 82,000 barrels per day of NPR crude oil between April and September 1986. These companies bid a record high average discount of $4.49 from DOE's base price. The discounts ranged from $0.87 to $6.98 per barrel. These contracts resulted in DOE selling Elk Hills oil as low as $3.91 per barrel. Energy stated that the process for selling from NPR had gotten out of step with today's marketplace. Doe subsequently revised its sales procedures which requires bidders to submit a specific price for the oil rather than a discount to a base price. DOE also initiated other efforts designed to avoid future NPR oil sales at less than fair market value.

  19. Oil futures prices in a production economy with investment constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kogan, Leonid

    2008-01-01

    We document a new stylized fact regarding the term structure of futures volatility. We show that the relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and ...

  20. Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

  1. EIS-0016: Cumulative Production/Consumption Effects of the Crude Oil Price Incentive Rulemakings, Programmatic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The U.S. Department of Energy prepared this Final Statement to FEA-FES-77-7 to assess the environmental and socioeconomic implications of a rulemaking on crude oil pricing incentives as pertains to the full range of oil production technologies (present as well as anticipated.)

  2. Table 19. U.S. Refiner Residual Fuel Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    January 1983 forward; Form EIA-460, "Petroleum Industry Monthly Report for Product Prices," source for backcast estimates prior to January 1983. 36 Energy Information...

  3. Final report of the Rhode Island State Energy Office on residential no. 2 heating oil and propane prices [SHOPP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McClanahan, Janice

    2001-04-01

    Summary report on residential No.2 heating oil and propane prepared under grant. Summarizes the monitoring and analysis of heating oil and propane prices from October 2000 through March 2001.

  4. What else did the price crash do. World oil's new-think

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-06-18

    The pricing of crude oil in relation to its refined product value should probably be viewed not as the cause of the international price crash touched off in late 1985, but as the consequence. Negotiating tables appear more cozy, with smaller distances between what buyers and sellers recognize as market-oriented prices. To an important degree, OPEC now officially prices by the netback system, and many other producers will likely follow soon. In California, an OPEC light crude and two domestics reveal new-think. This issue also includes the following: (1) ED refining netback data for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore for June 1986; (2) ED fuel price/tax series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere for May 1986 (unless otherwise indicated); and (3) principal industrial fuel prices for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere for March 1986.

  5. The first oil price explosion 1971-1974

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adelman, Morris Albert

    1990-01-01

    The 1970 price of Saudi Light crude was $1.21, of which 89 cents was excise tax. By end-1974, the price was about $11, of which 30-50 cents was a fee paid to the former owners, now operators. The detailed history of the ...

  6. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01

    the following:1. FAPRI3. AO S5. Univariate Time Series7. Composite 2. WASDE4. Futures Market6. Multivariate Time Series The characteristics of each of the aforementioned forecast techniques are explained within the appropriate chapter. Furthermore, it should...

  7. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices Globaldieselgasolinemonthly coalSnowU.S.Midwest4oil

  8. Naval petroleum reserves: Sales procedures and prices received for Elk Hills oil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    The Congress expressed concern about the Department of Energy's actions in selling oil from the Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve at what appeared to be unreasonably low prices. DOE officials believe that Naval Petroleum Reserve oil has been and is currently being produced at the appropriate rate and that no recoverable oil has been lost. This fact sheet provides information on the basis for the procedures followed by DOE in selling Naval Petroleum Reserve oil and sales data for the period extending from October 1985 through April 1986.

  9. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    Associates, citing NYMEX natural gas bid-offer spreadAnalysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. ” The Energyas a Physical Hedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. ”

  10. The Impact of Oil Prices on the Air Transportation Industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Ning

    .................................................................30 2.8 MODELING FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON COMMERCIAL AVIATION....................................................................................................................78 4.3 DATA SETS EMPLOYED IN THE STUDY, Everett Peterson (PI) and Antonio Trani (PI) Virginia Tech National Center of Excellence for Aviation

  11. Forecasting Using Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio; Nikanrova, Arina

    2006-03-14

    products), cartels among producing countries reducing supply (e.g. OPEC), changes in legislations (e.g. import-export tariffs), international war conflicts (e.g. Iraq war), changes in weather conditions (e.g. global warming), the behaviour of commodity... . The commodities studied are crude oil, gas oil (IPE), heating oil, natural gas, propane, un- leaded gas, cocoa, coffee, sugar, orange juice, soybean, corn, rice, oats, wheat and cotton. Assum- ing the data possess suitable ergodic properties, we report sample...

  12. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas UsageDiesel pricesDiesel prices top $4May-15

  13. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas UsageDiesel pricesDiesel prices top

  14. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices for Selected Crude Streams

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas UsageDiesel pricesDiesel prices topMay-15

  15. Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fritsch, Roger Erwin

    1997-01-01

    Daily Standard & Poor's 500 stock index cash and futures prices are studies in a cointegration framework using Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. To account for the time varying relationship(basis) between the two ...

  16. Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi

    2011-12-08

    This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labour exporting country that receives large inflows of external income - the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers - from major oil exporting economies...

  17. The international fuels report. Supply/price trends and forecasts, 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swain, C.

    1988-01-01

    This survey of the principal developments in major world energy markets reviews key issues in supply and demand, presents expert opinions on likely developments in the coming year, analyzes pricing prospects, examines world energy requirements, and discusses the outlook for energy consumers and suppliers. Particular emphasis is placed on OECD countries and principal energy suppliers. Tables and graphs of principal energy indicators using the latest available information are included throughout. Providing current data on OPEC price policy and the level of production in the main areas of fossil versus alternative energy sources, this book is a practical planning tool.

  18. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01

    Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline.of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. Energy Journal 16 (Modeling Forum. 2003. Natural Gas, Fuel Diversity and North

  19. Identifying the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: An Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oil price exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oil price-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

  20. The Role of Forecasting, Price Negotiation and Procurement Management in Determining Availability of Antiretroviral Medicines (ARVs) in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adesina, Adebiyi Ola-Oluwa

    2010-01-01

    antiretroviral drug prices: the experience of the Andeanstrategies to reduce the price of antiretroviral medicines:Summary Report from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism on

  1. Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets 9,WhyConsumption6 1 AprilMMaples 2011 EIA

  2. Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets 9,WhyConsumption6 1 AprilMMaples 2011

  3. U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by Sales Type

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices Global CrudeWhat'sMay-15 Jun-15Area: U.S. East Coast

  4. Term Structure of Commodities Futures. Forecasting and Pricing. Marcos Escobar, Nicols Hernndez, Luis Seco

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seco, Luis A.

    for non-gaussian markets relies often on the assumption that the underlying market factors have a gaussian management methodologies for non-gaussian markets relies often on the assumption that the underlying market, i.e. Ti are the 20th of every month in the case of oil. There are two popular views of commodities

  5. The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1920s?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blanchard, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four ...

  6. Oil and natural gas reserve prices : addendum to CEEPR WP 03-016 ; including results for 2003 revisions to 2001

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adelman, Morris Albert

    2005-01-01

    Introduction. A working paper entitled "Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Prices 1982-2002: Implications for Depletion and Investment Cost" was published in October 2003 (cited hereafter as Adelman & Watkins [2003]). Since then ...

  7. Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phillips, David

    Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per barrel of crude oil are given in following table: Gasoline Sale Price per barrel Gas 1

  8. Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights the storm track with daily (0000 UTC) positions marked. Katrina caused extensive damage to offshore oil and gas production facilities; 46 platforms and four jack-uprigsweredestroyed. Perhapsmost remarkably

  9. Trajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Yonggang Liu, Robert H. Weisberg, Chuanmin Hu, and Lianyuan Zheng

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meyers, Steven D.

    better or worse than the others throughout the event with one excep- tion. The lessons learned fromTrajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Yonggang Liu, Robert H. Petersburg, Florida, USA In response to the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a Lagrangian

  10. U.S. gasoline price to continue falling through December on low oil prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices Globaldiesel fuel7, 2015short version) The3, 20155

  11. Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Statistic Simulations Guangbin Li (gl2423) #12 of the most heated-discussed issues. Energy shortage and environment pollution are the main bottleneck the tradeoff between energy supply and environment pollution. As the international oil price was continuously

  12. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers 2015ValuesEFuel OilDiesel

  13. Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2012-01-01

    This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

  14. Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phillips, David

    by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per barrel of crude oil are given in following table: Gasoline Sale Price per barrel Gas 1 $70 Gas 2 $60 Gas 3 $50 Oil Purchase Price per barrel Crude 1 $45 Gas 2 $25 Gas 3 $20 Sunco can

  15. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  16. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care about the Rockets and the Feathers?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverse (Journal Article) |FinalIndustrialFollowingFor yourMatteo Manera Asymmetries

  17. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    of a range of world oil prices for future energy demand andTo examine the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand andprojections of world oil prices. Th and demand. determined

  18. Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  19. Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  20. Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  1. Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2002 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  2. Dynamics of the Oil Transition: Modeling Capacity, Costs, and Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brandt, Adam R.; Farrell, Alexander E.

    2008-01-01

    response to high oil prices and geopolitical threats tofor the e?ect of the oil price through the price elasticityprojections, corresponding oil price series are extracted

  3. The Role of Forecasting, Price Negotiation and Procurement Management in Determining Availability of Antiretroviral Medicines (ARVs) in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adesina, Adebiyi Ola-Oluwa

    2010-01-01

    Clinical, 2) Economic Evaluation and, 3) Prices and Patents.from both the Economic Evaluation and Technical Clinicalimplementation phase the Economic Evaluation sub-committee

  4. Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akaev, Askar; Korotayev, Andrey V; Fomin, Alexey

    2012-01-01

    countries   Data source: World Bank 2012: NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG. This diagram demonstrates that the oil price

  5. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988Prices,Flight....131 2.253 2.161 2.057

  6. Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7Cubicthroughthe PriceThousand CubicThousandCubic53.6 53.3 49.368.7

  7. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  8. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices Globaldiesel fuel prices continue to5, 2014

  9. Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are thedriven by the world crude oil price rather than by exchange-how consumers think about oil prices and price expectations,

  10. INTERIM VALIDATION REPORT MIDDLE DISTILLATE PRICE MONITORING SYSTEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hopelain, D.G.

    2011-01-01

    1977-1978 HEATING OIL PRICES II-1 II-3 II-3 Wholesale PricesMonthly U.S. Heating Oil Prices, 1970 - 1978 . . A-16 .H-3 .continuous No. 2 heating oil price information from 1970 to

  11. Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gicheva, Dora; Hastings, Justine; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

    2008-01-01

    Formulations Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices, 2000-2006 FigureI: Weekly Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices for2001- 2006 Crude Oil CA Regular Reformulated Figure II:

  12. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  13. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  14. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are theprices are driven by oil prices, moreover, and oil isby ‡uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean real

  15. Michigan residential No. 2 fuel oil and propane price survey for the 1990/91 heating season. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

  16. Michigan residential No. 2 fuel oil and propane price survey for the 1990/91 heating season

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

  17. Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    prices. Using proprietary data from the CFTC, Buyuksahin and Robe (2011) link increased high-frequency correlations among equity and commodity returns to trading patterns of...

  18. The Politics of Oil Nationalizations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahdavi, Paasha

    2015-01-01

    revenues (adjusted for real oil price) before and after es-to the volatility of oil prices – and thus the volatility ofSonin (2011) shows that oil prices and executive constraints

  19. Putting downward pressure on natural gas prices: The impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; St. Clair, Matthew

    2004-01-01

    using forecasts of U.S. coal minemouth prices and total U.S.price forecasts of recent years, however, suggest that RE and EE may increasingly displace coalprice forecasts (e.g. , UCS 2003, 2004) generally find greater coal

  20. The aim of this work is to apply a probabilistic method to quantify the likelihood to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upc

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Psaltis, Demetri

    to observe the Banking Case contrary to a deterministic approach. The Banking Case is the forecast of oil or gas volumes that could be recovered from a formation in the upcoming years. It iis estimated to ensure positive NPV. Certainty of Oil Production Forecasts Methodology A hyperbolic curve fit

  1. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  2. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    Av:l.at:i.on Fuel Total Oil Demand 0:!.1 Demand w:t thoutSince electric:! ty prices oil prices, the demand for will :the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand and supply, \\ve

  3. The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non- Conventional Oil Supply and Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Méjean, Aurélie; Hope, Chris

    demand modelling Meling (StatoilHydro) 1.6%/year No detailed demand modelling Total 1.4%/year No detailed demand modelling Exxon Mobil 1.4%/year Detailed demand modelling Energyfiles 1.8%/year Demand not modelled, exogenous rate Adapted from (UKERC... of unconventional oil and gas) “By 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not match the projected rate of demand growth.” UKERC (2009b p33) ExxonMobil 2008 101 in 2030 (excl. non-conventional oil) No peak before 2030 UKERC...

  4. Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaddes, Kamiar

    2012-03-02

    ¤erent to various sources of energy, such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear. Thus it is appropriate to ?rst look at the demand for energy before determining the speci?c demand for oil. The main reason for this is that although its composition will change... -run relationships when it comes to the demand for oil, given that countries impose subsidies and taxes on energy to di¤erent degrees. On the other hand there are often good reasons to expect that long-run relationships between variables are homogeneous across...

  5. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  6. Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gicheva, Dora; Hastings, Justine; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

    2008-01-01

    Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices, 2000-2006 Figure I:Weekly Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices for 2001- 2006 Crudeargue that increases in oil prices may lead to recessions

  7. Reformulating Competition? Gasoline Content Regulation and Wholesale Gasoline Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Jennifer; Hastings, Justine; Mansur, Erin T.; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

    2007-01-01

    Sup) # Sup Squared Crude Oil Price Constant Years of Datafactors using the price of crude oil (Cushings, O K ) . AsN and N-squared. The price of crude oil is a significant and

  8. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    shock), it is the world crude oil price that must change insuggesting that the crude oil price might be somewhatper capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are

  9. Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    shock), it is the world crude oil price that must change inin the instruments based on crude oil prices. Unfortunately,per capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are

  10. INTERIM VALIDATION REPORT MIDDLE DISTILLATE PRICE MONITORING SYSTEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hopelain, D.G.

    2011-01-01

    an overall scheme of crude oil price regulation that met thebegan increasing crude oil prices in 1973 but the incomeselling price minus the average costs of crude oil and

  11. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  12. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  13. The effect of biofuel on the international oil market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David D.

    2010-01-01

    energy security and high oil prices, as well as greenhousetransaction costs, the oil prices in H equal the prices inat times when crude oil prices surged during 2002 to 2006 (

  14. The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    as a function of crude oil prices with and without the FPSP.NYMEX front-month crude oil price that is generally referrederence between the price of crude oil and the target price.

  15. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-01-01

    Against Volatile Natural Gas Prices Mark Bolinger, Ryanwake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility duringyears) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e. , what

  16. Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis Forecasts the Burst of the “Gold Bubble” in April – June 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akaev, Askar; Fomin, Alexey; Tsirel, Sergey V.; Korotayev, Andrey V

    2010-01-01

    the second jump of the oil prices and was a symptom ofinflation). Fig. 2. Yearly oil price dynamics, 1970–2010 Notxls/update67_5.xls, oil prices for 1970–2006); U. S. Energy

  17. Essays on Automotive Lending, Gasoline Prices, & Automotive Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schulz-Mahlendorf, Wilko Ziggy

    2013-01-01

    and the massive run-up in crude oil prices in late 2008. Inoutcomes? ” In late 2008, crude oil prices rose sharply,

  18. Essays on Automotive Lending, Gasoline Prices, & Automotive Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schulz-Mahlendorf, Wilko Ziggy

    2013-01-01

    massive run-up in crude oil prices in late 2008. In 2008, asIn late 2008, crude oil prices rose sharply, leading many to

  19. Prices of robustness and reblending in oil industry Stefan Janaqi.* Jorge Aguilera*. Meriam Chbre**

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    in determining the optimal proportions to blend from a set of available components such that the final product. The feedback is based on measures of the blends' and components' properties gathered by online analyzers-time optimization method for the on-line linear oil blending process. Our approach places this problem in a wider

  20. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    and Weimer, D.L. (1984) Oil prices shock, market response,OPEC behavior and world oil prices (pp. 175-185) London:many decades. Recent high oil prices have caused oil-holding

  1. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  2. ,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page| Open Energy Informationmonthly gasoline price to fall to $3.43U.S.longec 188 U.S.1 HomeRegional37Annual* j o n

  3. ,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by Area"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page| Open Energy Informationmonthly gasoline price to fall to $3.43U.S.longec 188 U.S.1 HomeRegional37Annual* j o

  4. ,"Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices for Selected Crude Streams"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page| Open Energy Informationmonthly gasoline price to fall to $3.43U.S.longec 188 U.S.1 HomeRegional37Annual* j ofor

  5. ,"U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Prices by Sales Type"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015" ,"ReleaseMonthly","10/2015"Prime Supplier Sales VolumesPrices by Sales Type" ,"Click

  6. U.S. Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices Global CrudeWhat'sMay-15May-15 Jun-15Illinois

  7. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline

  8. The Russian Economy: Do Sanctions and Low Oil Prices Constrain Putin's Foreign Policy? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paul, Gregory

    2015-04-22

    area of permafrost shifting – Russian Core of Western Siberia between Urals and Central Siberian Plateau. Estimates that Russia possesses 74 billion barrels of oil reserves and 1, 699 trillion cubic feet of natural gas proven reserves. Comparatively... to Handle: Climate Change, Geopolitics, and U.S. National Security in 2025 Jay Boggs Andrew Chellinsky David Ege Allen Hodges Tripp Reynolds Adam Williams 26 April 2007 Security Implications of Global Climate Change Capstone Team Jay W. Boggs – Russia...

  9. World Oil: Market or Mayhem?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, James L.

    2008-01-01

    The world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle. Why are oil prices so volatile? What is OPEC and what does OPEC do? Where are oil prices headed in the long run? Is “peak oil” a genuine concern? Why did oil prices ...

  10. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2046853 Can Agent-Based Models Forecast Spot Prices in Electricity Markets? Evidence from the New

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Spot Prices in Electricity Markets? Evidence from the New Zealand Electricity Market David Young1 , Stephen Poletti2 , Oliver Browne2 24th January 2012 Abstract Modelling price formation in electricity markets is a notoriously difficult process, due to physical constraints on electricity generation and flow

  11. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    Description Prices for oil, gas, electricity, liquidElectric Electric Electric Gas Oil Electric ElectricElectric Gas Electric Gas Oil Electric Electric Gas Oil

  12. Energy Prices and California's Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadoulet, Elisabeth

    months, with national unemployment at 25 year highs, retail U.S. gasoline prices have risen 40 percent1 Energy Prices and California's Economic Security David RolandHolst October, 2009 on Energy Prices, Renewables, Efficiency, and Economic Growth: Scenarios and Forecasts, financial support

  13. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-01-01

    of Alternative Fossil Fuel Price and Carbon Regulationthe past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We findfossil price scenarios, respectively, but in both cases these are integrated scenarios developed by altering numerous input assumptions, not just fuel price

  14. Factors Influencing Oil Prices: A Survey of the Current State of Knowledge in the Context of the 2007-08 Oil Price Volatility Interactions in the U.S. Crude Oil Market

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets 9,WhyConsumption6 Weekly

  15. The Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    oil producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, amid low global surplus crude oil production capacity, has also lent support to crude oil prices. A framework...

  16. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-01-01

    Energy Futures: Recent Evidence for Crude Oil, Natural Gas,Gasoline and Heating Oil. UCSC Economics Working Paper No.Papapetrou, E. (2001). "Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market,

  17. Cost, Conflict and Climate: U.S. Challenges in the World Oil Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    at the world price of oil and prices of gasoline and otherincremental pro?ts when oil prices rise come from both U.S.the recent increases in oil prices and attempts to clarify

  18. Can Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Put Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2005-01-01

    using forecasts of U.S. coal minemouth prices and total U.S.price forecasts (e.g. , UCS 2004a, 2004b), generally find less gas displacement (and greater coal

  19. Easing the natural gas crisis: Reducing natural gas prices through increased deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; St. Clair, Matt

    2004-01-01

    gas-price forecasts of recent years suggest that coal mayprice forecasts (e.g. , UCS 2004a, 2004b), generally find less gas displacement (and greater coal

  20. Drunk On Oil: Russian Foreign Policy 2000-2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brugato, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    World Stocks Sag as Oil Price Surges. ” The New York Times,Second, the increase in oil prices may make Russia moreof action. Nevertheless, oil prices still have a significant

  1. Crude Existence: The Politics of Oil in Northern Angola

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reed, Kristin

    2009-01-01

    tion. A drop in world oil prices, coupled with a decrease indisbursements declined and oil prices dropped sharply inThe drastic drop in oil prices and further agricultural

  2. The effect of biofuel on the international oil market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David D.

    2010-01-01

    countries, at times when crude oil prices surged during 2002Texas Intermediate price of crude oil. To this end, we knowcrude oil and biofuels in 2007 (see Table 1). Speci?cally, we use price

  3. The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Household Welfare in India

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Janvry, Alain; Sadoulet, Eliisabeth

    2009-01-01

    that these cereal and oil price increases of 28 to 52% wouldthe large increase in oil prices, leaving them with only aprices and 2.2% from the oil price increase. Poor people

  4. Do Americans Consume Too Little Natural Gas? An Empirical Test of Marginal Cost Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Lucas; Muehlegger, Erich

    2009-01-01

    spot price for North Sea crude oil (Brent Crude Spot Price),whom can switch between fuel oil and natural gas, we includespot price of Brent crude oil. We instrument for natural gas

  5. Do Americans Consume Too Little Natural Gas? An Empirical Test of Marginal Cost Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Lucas; Muehlegger, Erich

    2009-01-01

    demand with respect to the crude oil price is 0.347. Table 5for North Sea crude oil (Brent Crude Spot Price), andheatinginclude the spot price of Brent crude oil. We instrument for

  6. The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    oil price, the expected retail gasoline price and consumption quantities are shown using a short-run demand elasticity assumption

  7. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    oil price projections from the Energy Information Administration (FOB, through 2030; EIA, 2007) to historicalof oil, or the market price less shipping costs. Historical

  8. Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    Monthly analysis of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and propane prices is released as a regular supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

  9. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    We appended future oil price projections from the Energyfunctional form of price projection (personal communication,producers using a fixed price projection in their production

  10. Dynamics of the Oil Transition: Modeling Capacity, Costs, and Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brandt, Adam R.; Farrell, Alexander E.

    2008-01-01

    based on projections of future prices and future demand.with demand projections, corresponding oil price series areoil price path associated with the IMAGE demand projection

  11. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    annual production from Cantarell complex in Mexico. Data foryear since 2002. Mexico’s Cantarell complex, second only tothe North Sea, Mexico’s Cantarell, and China’s Daqing. North

  12. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7 Relative StandardFeet)61,124 135,252NetThousand 1993 1995

  13. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 View

  14. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 View

  15. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 View

  16. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 View

  17. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 View1995

  18. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugAdditions1 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014

  19. Residential heating oil price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration (EIA) ‹heating

  20. Residential heating oil price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration (EIA)

  1. Residential heating oil price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration (EIA)heating

  2. Residential heating oil price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration (EIA)heatingheating

  3. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  4. Wind Power Price Trends in the United States: Struggling to Remain Competitive in the Face of Strong Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    and forecast future wind cost and pricing trends (see,long-term forecast of future wind costs or competitiveness,To put the material on wind cost and pricing trends in

  5. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  6. Due to depletion of oil resources, increasing fuel prices and environmental issues associated with burning of fossil fuels, extensive research has been performed in biofuel production and dramatic progress has

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Due to depletion of oil resources, increasing fuel prices and environmental issues associated with burning of fossil fuels, extensive research has been performed in biofuel production and dramatic progress has been made. But still problems exist in economically production of biofuels. One major problem

  7. US military expenditures to protect the use of Persian Gulf oil for motor vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delucchi, Mark; Murphy, James

    2008-01-01

    Montgomery, W.D. , 1982. Oil Prices, Energy Security, andPaik, I.K. , 2004. Oil price shocks and the macroeconomy:the United States from Oil Price Shocks? CRS 91-438E.

  8. Cost, Conflict and Climate: U.S. Challenges in the World Oil Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    increases in the price of crude oil during the last half ofdollar-denominated price of crude oil increased about 50%.month contract) price per gallon of crude oil and gasoline

  9. The effect of biofuel on the international oil market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David D.

    2010-01-01

    hand, the literature on crude oil usually assumes a COFconsequence of extracting crude oil. User costs include thecountries, at times when crude oil prices surged during 2002

  10. Drunk On Oil: Russian Foreign Policy 2000-2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brugato, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Julia. “ World Stocks Sag as Oil Price Surges. ” The NewCollapse: Grain and Oil,” On the Issues, Am. Enterpriseet. al. , “Unrelenting Oil Addiction,” Russ. in Global

  11. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

  12. The Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    impact demand for petroleum products. Together with robust levels of current global crude oil production, and the potential for additional Iranian exports in 2016, oil prices...

  13. Drunk On Oil: Russian Foreign Policy 2000-2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brugato, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    the foreseeable future. Assessment of future oil prices andfor an assessment of whether the increase in oil prices isoil prices and substantial energy exports – over the next decade or so. Assessment

  14. Economics, producer politics will shape oil markets through 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-10-25

    Two main forces will shape the oil market during the next 3 years. The pace of worldwide economic growth will determine demand growth. Although energy use efficiency has improved, especially in the industrialized world, demand for energy and oil products remains chiefly a function of economic activity. And producing nation politics will have much to say about supply. A crucial and unpredictable variable is when Iraq, now subject to a United Nations trade embargo, resumes exports at significant rates. Demand growth will exceed production increases outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which means an ever-increasing role for the exporters' group. The paper discusses the demand outlook, economic projections, energy intensity, regional energy mixes, world energy mix, petroleum demand, petroleum product demand, supply questions, non-OPEC production, reserves and output capacity, production gains, industry operations (drilling, stocks, refining), prices, price forecasts, and the role of taxes.

  15. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  16. Steam Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, K. C.

    1986-01-01

    stream_source_info ESL-IE-86-06-19.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 30463 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name ESL-IE-86-06-19.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 STEAM PRICING... Kenneth C. Jones Shell Oil Company Houston, Texas ABSTRACT Steam is used in many plants to furnish both heat and mechanical energy. It is typically produced in several fired boilers which may operate at different pressures and with different...

  17. The impact of fuel price volatility on transportation mode choice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Eun Hie

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the price of oil has driven large fluctuations in the price of diesel fuel, which is an important cost component in freight logistics. This thesis explores the impact of fuel price volatility on supply ...

  18. ORNL/TM-2005/45 COSTS OF U.S. OIL DEPENDENCE: 2005 UPDATE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ..........................................................................................................................12 4 Historical Oil Prices and Dynamically Adjusting Oil Prices ..........................................................................................29 5.2 CASE 1A: OIL PRICE ELASTICITY OF GDP VARIES WITH OIL COST SHARE .......................................................................................................36 5.3 CASE 1B: OIL PRICE ELASTICITY OF GDP CONSTANT OVER TIME ......37 5.4 CASE 2: STOCHASTIC

  19. Electronic Supplement Appendix A. Implementation of the proposed pricing mechanism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tsitsiklis, John

    resource and an ancillary energy resource. We assume that the forecast demand is met by the primary energy-time prices and various factors such as load forecast, weather predictions, and expected supply/demand from the forecast demand, {wt}T t=1, are independent random variables uniformly distributed on [-, ].16

  20. Essays on Pricing Behaviors of Energy Commodities 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qin, Xiaoyan

    2012-07-16

    This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market...

  1. The Story of Stumpage Stumpage Prices \\iJ~,.~,,...... B~

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the market calls for. PULPWOOD: Pulpwood prices depend on the global demand for paper products of amajor pulp and paper mill in New York. FIREWOOD: Demand for firewood in New England depends on the price of fossil fuels,particularly No.2fuel oil. (The price of firewood rises as fuel oil prices in

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  3. A New Method for History Matching and Forecasting Shale Gas/Oil Reservoir Production Performance with Dual and Triple Porosity Models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Samandarli, Orkhan

    2012-10-19

    Different methods have been proposed for history matching production of shale gas/oil wells which are drilled horizontally and usually hydraulically fractured with multiple stages. These methods are simulation, analytical models, and empirical...

  4. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  5. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  6. INTERIM VALIDATION REPORT MIDDLE DISTILLATE PRICE MONITORING SYSTEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hopelain, D.G.

    2011-01-01

    an overall scheme of crude oil price regulation that met thethe com- putation of crude oil cost increases to refiners.=Average per unit cost of. crude oil pur- chased by the i"'

  7. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  8. Impacts on U.S. Energy Markets and the Economy of Reducing Oil Imports

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1996-01-01

    This study was undertaken at the request of the General Accounting Office (GAO). Its purpose is to evaluate the impacts on U.S. energy markets and the economy of reducing oil imports. The approach and assumptions underlying this report were specified by GAO and are attached as an Appendix. The study focuses on two approaches: (1) a set of cases with alternative world crude oil price trajectories and (2) two cases which investigate the use of an oil import tariff to achieve a target reduction in the oil imports. The analysis presented uses the National Energy Modeling System, which is maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the DRI/McGraw Hill Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, a proprietary model maintained by DRI and subscribed to by EIA.

  9. The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    economic slowdown cuts oil demand. At the intersection ofoil price, the expected retail gasoline price and consumption quantities are shown using a short-run demand

  10. The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    and jet fuels. It would target a certain oil price andjet fuel. That quantity would vary, of course, both with the price

  11. Flexible procurement strategies smooth price spikes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gaalaas, T. [Pace Global Energy Services LLC (United States)

    2006-12-15

    Pace Global Energy Services has been predicting for some time that the recent peaks in spot coal prices were not sustainable and this has been borne out. The latest available data on coal supply and demand fundamental suggest that spot coal prices may decline even more rapidly than previously forecast. Price volatility over the last five years suggests that a flexible procurement strategy that is well adapted to volatile market conditions may be just as important as knowledge of market fundamentals. 3 figs.

  12. Modest carbon price could save Borneo forests: study Reuters, 4 June 2009 -Tropical forests in Borneo under threat of conversion to palm oil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in Borneo under threat of conversion to palm oil plantations could be more profitable left standing threat of being converted to oil palm plantations. "They are not meant to be clearing forest for palm oil development. It's pretty clear that forests are being felled for oil palm," said Venter, a conservation

  13. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    Oil Production The production of crude oil can generally beNorth Slope crude, Q it is the oil production per perioddiscoveries, production, costs, and prices of crude oil. ”

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  15. An assessment of single-family housing prices and residential segregation using GIS in Bryan, Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Esch, Stephen Alexander

    1997-01-01

    Hedonic models have been used by many scholars to forecast prices of housing properties. By incorporating such features as neighborhood quality, environmental factors, and the type of improvements made to a property, the price of a property may...

  16. Oil and Gas CDT Development of a SUNTANS Baroclinic Model for 3D Oil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Henderson, Gideon

    Oil and Gas CDT Development of a SUNTANS Baroclinic Model for 3D Oil Pollution Tracking Heriot will receive 20 weeks bespoke, residential training of broad relevance to the oil and gas industry: 10 weeks) Key Words Oil Spill, HF Radar, Trajectory Forecasting, Hydrodynamic Modelling, Oil Chemistry Overview

  17. European Market Study for BioOil (Pyrolysis Oil)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    European Market Study for BioOil (Pyrolysis Oil) Dec 15, 2006 Doug Bradley President Climate Change of Contents Scope Executive Summary 1. Background 2. Pyrolysis Oil-Char Supply and Export Potential 2 Competitiveness 3.1. Substitute Fuels 3.2. Price of Fossil Fuels 3.3. Delivered Costs of Pyrolysis Oil/Char 4

  18. Author's personal copy Gasoline prices and traffic safety in Mississippi

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    more than 16% from 1973 to 1974 when the oil crisis occurred. International oil prices historically-grade unleaded gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of EnergyAuthor's personal copy Gasoline prices and traffic safety in Mississippi Guangqing Chi a, , Arthur

  19. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    changes in oil production costs – due to quasi-rents fromto oil price rather than to changes in quasi-rents and the

  20. Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana; Janda, Karel

    2011-01-01

    demand and distillate fuel oil demand. ” Energy Economics 7(demand and consumer price expectations: An empirical investigation of the consequences from the recent oil

  1. The Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and on the Profitability of the U.S. Oil Refinery Industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Du, Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2008-04-01

    This report details pooled regional time-series data and panel data estimation used to quantify the impact of monthly ethanol production on monthly retail regular gasoline prices.

  2. U. S. Military Expenditures to Protect the Use of Persian Gulf Oil for Motor Vehicles: Report #15 in the series: The Annualized Social Cost of Motor-Vehicle Use in the United States, based on 1990-1991 Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delucchi, Mark; Murphy, James

    2006-01-01

    55 F IGURE 15-1. M ONTHLY CRUDE OIL PRICES 1990-1991 ($/and our interpretation of crude oil price histories (http://F IGURE 15-1. M ONTHLY CRUDE OIL PRICES 1990-1991 ($/barrel)

  3. Report Title: The Economic Impact of Oil and Gas Extraction in New Mexico Type of Report: Technical Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Eric E.

    presented. Historical oil and gas production, reserves, and price data are also presented and discussed. #12 ..................................................................................................................................................7 Oil Production ...............................................................................................................................................8 World Oil Production

  4. INTERIM VALIDATION REPORT MIDDLE DISTILLATE PRICE MONITORING SYSTEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hopelain, D.G.

    2011-01-01

    oil and No. 2-D diesel fuel, from price and allocationdiesel fuel, effective October 1, 1977, bad assumed from pricellY controlled prices at No. 2-D diesel fuel to ultimate

  5. DOE Gasoline Price Watch Website and Hotline | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    price consumers are paying at the pump, including growing demand, the high price of crude oil, the lingering effects of last summer's hurricanes on our refining sector and the...

  6. A Linear Time Algorithm for Pricing European Sequential Barrier Peng Gao Ron van der Meyden

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Meyden, Ron

    period. Option con- tracts are one simple kind of financial derivative. For example, a 3-month crude oil option contract states an agreed price for a crude oil transaction 3 months in the future of the date depends on the current crude oil market price and expectations concerning price movements. Although

  7. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan3 November 2013AdditionsExports ofChanges,50979049 1555 21434 1993

  8. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)DecadeYear Jan3 November 2013AdditionsExports ofChanges,50979049 1555 21434 1993

  9. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7CubicthroughtheSeptember 24, 20145,137 4,9743Number of 1993 January

  10. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7CubicthroughtheSeptember 24, 20145,137 4,9743Number of 1993 January

  11. Table 1. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7CubicthroughtheSeptember 24, 20145,137 4,9743Number of 1993 January

  12. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administration

  13. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating oilheating

  14. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheating

  15. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheatingheating

  16. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober 2015Administrationheatingheatingheating

  17. Residential heating oil price decreases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctober

  18. Balancing oil and environment... responsibly.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weimer, Walter C.; Teske, Lisa

    2007-01-25

    Balancing Oil and Environment…Responsibly As the price of oil continues to skyrocket and global oil production nears the brink, pursuing unconventional oil supplies, such as oil shale, oil sands, heavy oils, and oils from biomass and coal has become increasingly attractive. Of particular significance to the American way is that our continent has significant quantities of these resources. Tapping into these new resources, however, requires cutting-edge technologies for identification, production, processing and environmental management. This job needs a super hero or two for a job of this size and proportion…

  19. Volatility in natural gas and oil markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    2003-01-01

    Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in ...

  20. Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators Department of Computer Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    peak demand periods using pricing incentives. Reliable building energy forecast models can help predictImproving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators Saima Aman prasanna@usc.edu Abstract--The rising global demand for energy is best addressed by adopting and promoting

  1. Shifting production trends point to more oil from OPEC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ismail, I.A.H. (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna (Austria))

    1994-12-26

    Oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC regions has undergone four major phases of change in relation to oil price since 1960. Patterns visible in those phases offer an indication of world-wide production trends in the future. These four phases are described. Overall, demand for oil during 1960--93 has increased from around 20 million b/d in 1960 to as high as 65 million b/d in 1993. The consensus among energy analysts and forecasters is that this demand growth will continue. This will encourage OPEC and non OPEC producers to invest in the oil industry to meet future demand growth. However, since the resource base is larger in OPEC than in non-OPEC areas, and since the cost of developing these resources is lower in OPEC than outside OPEC, the future call on OPEC oil to meet growth in demand will undoubtedly be substantiated as production from the non-OPEC region diminishes or at best stagnates. The paper discusses OPEC production trends, non-OPEC production, natural gas liquids, future production scenarios, and future constraints on production.

  2. Cheese Prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwart Jr., Robert B.; Anderson, David P.; Knutson, Ronald D.

    2003-08-25

    Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

  3. Milk Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, David P.; Haigh, Michael; Stockton, Matthew; Schwart Jr., Robert B.

    2001-09-10

    This publication discusses the federal orders that govern the marketing of milk. The production location and form of the milk product affect the way it is priced. The different classes of milk and their prices are explained in detail....

  4. Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2014-01-01

    are more closely linked to oil prices) than it is in thepropane, and butane) or shale oil. To summarize, with gas

  5. Class Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wernerfelt, Birger

    2008-01-15

    A contract with K-class pricing divides a large set of goods or services into K classes and assigns a single price to any element of a class. Class pricing can be efficient when several different versions may be traded and ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  7. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  8. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  9. Dynamics of the Oil Transition: Modeling Capacity, Costs, and Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brandt, Adam R.; Farrell, Alexander E.

    2008-01-01

    Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 2327] Krichene, N. World crude oil and natural gas: a demandIn contrast to synthetic crude oils produced from the above

  10. Dynamic analysis in productivity, oil shock, and recession

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katayama, Munechika

    2008-01-01

    use of oil in the US economy weakens the peak responses ofpeak under other factors considered, less persistence in the oil-the same size of the oil-price shock. The peak response of

  11. Modeling of Energy Production Decisions: An Alaska Oil Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leighty, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    2007). The world will reach peak oil production rates, atenergy security costs, and peak oil as emergencies, we willwhen oil price is high, then the first peak in drilling cost

  12. Putting downward pressure on natural gas prices: The impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; St. Clair, Matthew

    2004-01-01

    Hogan, W. 1989. Wo rld Oil Price Projections: A Sensitivitypursuant to the Harvard-Japan World Oil Market Study, Energyrichene, N. 2002. “World Crude Oil and Natural Gas: A Demand

  13. Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2002-01-01

    estimates of betas for crude oil in the range of +0.5 to +natural gas and crude oil prices are moderately correlated,of a positive beta for oil might also apply to natural gas.

  14. Can Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Put Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2005-01-01

    2003. The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency. Discussion Paper 03-2005. Exploiting the Oil-GDP Effect to Support RenewablesHogan, W. 1989. World Oil Price Projections: A Sensitivity

  15. OVERVIEW OF PROPOSED TRANSPORTATION ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ........................................................................................................................................................6 Crude Oil Price Forecast Assumptions...............................................................................10 METHODOLOGY OF LONG-TERM FUEL DEMAND FORECAST ......................... 12 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................12 Purpose of California Petroleum Demand Forecast

  16. Modeling, History Matching, Forecasting and Analysis of Shale Reservoirs Performance Using Artificial Intelligence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    matching, forecasting and analyzing oil and gas production in shale reservoirs. In this new approach and analysis of oil and gas production from shale formations. Examples of three case studies in Lower Huron and New Albany shale formations (gas producing) and Bakken Shale (oil producing) is presented

  17. Optimize carbon dioxide sequestration, enhance oil recovery

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CO2-EOR provides about 5 percent of the total U.S. current crude oil production. Due to carbon capture and storage technology advances, prolonged high oil prices and the...

  18. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable togas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-07-17

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

  19. Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Fujita, K. Sydny

    2008-07-20

    Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1. For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2. Past retail price predictions made by DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3. The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4. Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances.

  20. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  1. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  2. Essays on Price Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Gee Hee

    2012-01-01

    Small Regular Price Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Cyclicality of Effective Prices2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retail

  3. The creation of dominant firm market power in the coconut oil export market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buschena, David E.; Perloff, Jeffrey M

    1990-01-01

    Optimality Equation (Price of coconut exports) Coefficientof the physical characteristics of coconut and palm oil.Coconut and palm oils. however. stili possess certain

  4. Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McGaughey, Alan

    and the U.S. costs of oil consumption, including supply disruption risks, increases in world oil prices dueAir Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits from Plug-in Vehicles The electrification of passenger; and (3) reduce gasoline consumption, helping to diminish dependency on imported oil. Current policy

  5. THE RIMINI PROTOCOL Oil Depletion Protocol

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keeling, Stephen L.

    1 THE RIMINI PROTOCOL an Oil Depletion Protocol ~ Heading Off Economic Chaos and Political Conflict During the Second Half of the Age of Oil As proposed at the 2003 Pio Manzu Conference Soaring oil prices have drawn attention to the issue of the relative supply and demand for crude oil

  6. Energy accounting for eleven vegetable oil fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goering, C.E.; Daugherty, M.J.

    1982-09-01

    Energy inputs and outputs were comparatively analyzed for 11 vegetable oil fuels. Three-year average prices and production quantities were also compared. All nonirrigated oil crops had favorable energy ratios. Soybean, peanut and sunflower oils were the most promising as domestic fuel sources. Rapeseed oil would also be promising if significant domestic production can be established.

  7. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  8. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-01-01

    estimates of betas for crude oil in the range of +0.5 to +natural gas and crude oil prices are moderately correlated,of a positive beta for oil might also apply to natural gas.

  9. The technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: The pivotal role of electricity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    EIA) long-term crude oil price forecast makes net mit-costs than did varying crude oil prices in the baseline

  10. The technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: The pivotal role of electricity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    EIA) long-term crude oil price forecast makes net mit-than did varying crude oil prices in the baseline scenario

  11. PERISHSaving an Oil Industry at Risk FEBRUARY 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peak, Derek

    historically reliant on overseas imports are facing high feedstock prices and restricted access to crude oil or anticipated needs: > Transportation bottlenecks in the US Midwest are driving down North American oil pricesPIPEOR PERISHSaving an Oil Industry at Risk FEBRUARY 2013 MICHAEL HOLDEN, SENIOR ECONOMIST #12;The

  12. Determinants of official OPEC crude prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Verleger, P.K. Jr.

    1982-05-01

    The hypothesis of this paper is that crude oil, like any other unfinished commodity, is valued for the products derived from it; the purpose is to offer an empirical explanation for changes in the crude price charged by the members of OPEC. The model results show that the market-clearing prices reported to prevail for petroleum products on the principal petroleum spot market at Rotterdam are the primary determinants of changes in official crude prices. A systematic relationship between offical and spot prices is argued to have prevailed since 1974. An appendix clarifies five types of data required for the model. 13 references, 4 tables.

  13. Real Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zubelli, Jorge Passamani

    to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oil prices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it would not be appropriateReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value October 1st, 2009 #12;Abstract

  14. Real Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zubelli, Jorge Passamani

    is the valuation of the option to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oil prices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it wouldReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value Sebastian Jaimungal , Max

  15. Residential propane price

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNaturalOctoberheating oil priceheating9,propane price

  16. Domestic petroleum-product prices around the world. Survey: free market or government price controls

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-01-27

    In this issue, Energy Detente draws from their regular Western and Eastern Hemisphere Fuel Price/Tax Series, each produced monthly, and adds other survey data and analysis for a broad view of 48 countries around the world. They find that seven Latin American nations, including OPEC members Venezuela and Ecuador, are among the ten countries with lowest gasoline prices. In this Fourth Special Price Report, Energy Detente provides a first-time presentation of which prices are government-controlled, and which are free to respond to market forces. South Korea, with fixed prices since 1964, has the highest premium-grade gasoline price in our survey, US $5.38 per gallon. Paraguay, with prices fixed by PETROPAR, the national oil company, has the second highest premium gasoline price, US $4.21 per gallon. Nicaragua, also with government price controls, ranks third highest in the survey, with US $3.38 per gallon for premium gasoline. Kuwait shows the lowest price at US $0.55 per gallon. Several price changes from the previous survey reflect changes in currency exchange as all prices are converted to US dollars. The Energy Detente fuel price/tax series is presented for Western Hemisphere countries.

  17. 851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow 503-222-5161 Portland, Oregon 97204-1348 Executive Director 800-452-5161

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts to provide information about its current views on future natural gas, oil, and coal prices. I have begun that process by updating price data sources, upgrading the forecasting model, and comparing the 5th Power Plan forecasts with recent forecasts by other organizations. Our oil price forecast range

  18. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  19. Speculation without Oil Stockpiling as a Signature: A Dynamic Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Babusiaux, Denis

    According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oil prices above the level ...

  20. Essays in Applied Macroeconomics: Asymmetric Price Adjustment, Exchange Rate and Treatment Effect 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gu, Jingping

    2009-05-15

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some...

  1. Modeling and simulation of consumer response to dynamic pricing.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valenzuela, J.; Thimmapuram, P.; Kim, J (Decision and Information Sciences); (Auburn Univ.)

    2012-08-01

    Assessing the impacts of dynamic-pricing under the smart grid concept is becoming extremely important for deciding its full deployment. In this paper, we develop a model that represents the response of consumers to dynamic pricing. In the model, consumers use forecasted day-ahead prices to shift daily energy consumption from hours when the price is expected to be high to hours when the price is expected to be low while maintaining the total energy consumption as unchanged. We integrate the consumer response model into the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS). EMCAS is an agent-based model that simulates restructured electricity markets. We explore the impacts of dynamic-pricing on price spikes, peak demand, consumer energy bills, power supplier profits, and congestion costs. A simulation of an 11-node test network that includes eight generation companies and five aggregated consumers is performed for a period of 1 month. In addition, we simulate the Korean power system.

  2. Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries Mohamed El Hedi Arouri the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period 1997-2008. Using data from four countries of the Gulf concerning any disruptions in global oil supply. Understanding crude-oil price dynamics is thus of great

  3. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  4. Assessment of Summer 1997 motor gasoline price increase

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-05-01

    Gasoline markets in 1996 and 1997 provided several spectacular examples of petroleum market dynamics. The first occurred in spring 1996, when tight markets, following a long winter of high demand, resulted in rising crude oil prices just when gasoline prices exhibit their normal spring rise ahead of the summer driving season. Rising crude oil prices again pushed gasoline prices up at the end of 1996, but a warm winter and growing supplies weakened world crude oil markets, pushing down crude oil and gasoline prices during spring 1997. The 1996 and 1997 spring markets provided good examples of how crude oil prices can move gasoline prices both up and down, regardless of the state of the gasoline market in the United States. Both of these spring events were covered in prior Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports. As the summer of 1997 was coming to a close, consumers experienced yet another surge in gasoline prices. Unlike the previous increase in spring 1996, crude oil was not a factor. The late summer 1997 price increase was brought about by the supply/demand fundamentals in the gasoline markets, rather than the crude oil markets. The nature of the summer 1997 gasoline price increase raised questions regarding production and imports. Given very strong demand in July and August, the seemingly limited supply response required examination. In addition, the price increase that occurred on the West Coast during late summer exhibited behavior different than the increase east of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 region needed additional analysis (Appendix A). This report is a study of this late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

  5. Taxation and the Extraction of Exhaustible Resources: Evidence From California Oil Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rao, Nirupama S.

    Rapid increases in oil prices in 2008 led some to call for special taxes on the oil industry. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, however, the effects of excise taxes on production or on reported producer profits may ...

  6. Cost, Conflict and Climate: U.S. Challenges in the World Oil Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    industry means that all oil demand pushes up the price ofearly 1980s drove down oil demand by 7% worldwide betweento suggest that the demand side of the world oil market or

  7. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  8. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  9. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  10. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  11. The Implications of a Gasoline Price Floor for the California Budget and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borenstein, Severin

    2008-01-01

    diesel and jet fuels. It would target a certain oil pricediesel and jet fuel. That quantity would vary, of course, both with the price

  12. Table A3. Refiner/Reseller Prices of Distillate and Residual...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 441 Table A3. RefinerReseller Prices of Distillate and Residual Fuel Oils, by PAD District, 1983-Present (Cents per Gallon...

  13. Optimize carbon dioxide sequestration, enhance oil recovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - 1 - Optimize carbon dioxide sequestration, enhance oil recovery January 8, 2014 Los Alamos simulation to optimize carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and enhance oil recovery (CO2-EOR) based on known production. Due to carbon capture and storage technology advances, prolonged high oil prices

  14. Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dorta, Miguel

    2012-07-16

    - returns has excess kurtosis or skewness, Gaussian based forecast could overexpose investors to financial risk. GARCH-class models, extensively used for log-returns density forecasting, have a somewhat limited ability to allow higher moments to be time... pricing model, which is based on the assumption of a log- normal density and risk-neutrality, would coincide with the true only if the underlying price process is a Brownian motion. Hence, differences between BS-derived put-IVs versus BS-derived call...

  15. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Estimates of World Conventional Oil Resources 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tien, Chih-Ming

    2010-07-14

    Since Hubbert proposed the "peak oil" concept to forecast ultimate recovery of crude oil for the U.S. and the world, there have been countless debates over the timing of peak world conventional oil production rate and ultimate recovery. From review...

  16. What Recession? Alaska's FY 2011 Budget

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBeath, Jerry

    2011-01-01

    is the price of oil and production rate. The Department oflarge budgets when oil production was steadily declining andSpring 2010 Forecast). Oil Production Prospects and Problems

  17. Heading off the permanent oil crisis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacKenzie, J.J.

    1996-11-01

    The 1996 spike in gasoline prices was not a signal of any fundamental worldwide shortage of crude oil. But based on a review of many studies of recoverable crude oil that have been published since the 1950s, it looks as though such a shortfall is now within sight. With world demand for oil growing at 2 percent per year, global production is likely to peak between the years 2007 and 2014. As this time approaches, we can expect prices to rise markedly and, most likely, permanently. Policy changes are needed now to ease the transition to high-priced oil. Oil production will continue, though at a declining rate, for many decades after its peak, and there are enormous amounts of coal, oil sands, heavy oil, and oil shales worldwide that could be used to produce liquid or gaseous substitutes for crude oil, albeit at higher prices. But the facilities for making such synthetic fuels are costly to build and environmentally damaging to operate, and their use would substantially increase carbon dioxide emissions (compared to emissions from products made from conventional crude oil). This paper examines ways of heading of the impending oil crisis. 8 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Demand key factor in worldwide crude prices and drilling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beck, R.J.

    1995-01-30

    The global demand surge that rescued world crude oil prices in 1994 will continue through 1995 and at least sustain, if not increase, worldwide drilling activity. Although average world crude oil prices at the end of 1994 were somewhat higher than a year earlier, the average price for all of last year was down from that of 1993. Production capacity remained sufficient to meet the growing need for crude, and the potential for return of Iraqi exports, embargoed by the United Nations since August 1990, lingered over the market. For several years the average world export crude oil price fluctuated seasonally within the range of $16--20/bbl. This band appears to have dropped to $13--17/bbl. The paper discusses economic growth rates; worldwide demand; worldwide supply; worldwide supply outlook; prices; and international drilling activity.

  19. Effect of Energy Efficiency Standards on Natural Gas Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carnall, Michael

    2012-01-01

    of Conservation on the Natural Gas Price,? memo to RichardTheroux, OMB. EIA 2009a. Natural Gas Year in Review (2009),at. http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/feature_

  20. The Facts on Gas Prices: Infographic | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infographic The Facts on Gas Prices: Infographic March 13, 2012 - 4:19pm Addthis Domestic oil production has climbed every year since President Obama took office, and our...

  1. Oil Market Simulation model user's manual. [Oil market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-07-01

    The Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model is a LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet that simulates the world oil market. OMS is an annual model that projects the world oil market through the year 2010 from a data base that begins in 1979. The geographic coverage includes all market economies, with net imports from the centrally planned economies taken as an assumption. The model estimates the effects of price changes on oil supply and demand and computes an oil price path over nine that allows supply and demand to remain in balance within the market economies area as a whole. The input assumptions of OMS are highlighted (in color) on the spreadsheet and include the following: The capacity of the OPEC countries to produce petroleum liquids (crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, refinery gains); a reference case projection of regional oil supply and demand at some arbitrary reference path of oil prices over time. The reference case provided with this diskette is that used for EIA's latest base case in the International Energy Outlook 1992 DOE/EIA-0484(92). The demonstration requires an IBM PC (or compatible), preferably with a color monitor. The demonstration diskette is self-contained, with all the files needed to run the demonstration. It does not, however, have the DOS system files, so this diskette cannot be used to start (boot) the computer.

  2. NATCOR -Xpress case study Margaret Oil produces three products: gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil. The average

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Julian

    NATCOR - Xpress case study Margaret Oil produces three products: gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil. To produce these products, Margaret purchases crude oil at a price of £11 per barrel. Each day to produce gasoline or jet fuel. Distilled oil can be used to produce all three products. The octane level

  3. Progress report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1980 to December 31, 1981 of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Energy Studies Program (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

    1982-01-01

    The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing forecasting methods that integrate the following considerations which influence investment in oil capacity and the level of oil exports: (1) the geology and microeconomics ...

  4. OM 386 Pricing & Revenue Optimization Fall 20121 Unique number 04210

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghosh, Joydeep

    they enjoy some degree of market power. Within the broader area of pricing theory, the course places in retail, telecommunications, entertainment, financial services, health care and manufacturing. In parallel forecasts and market uncertainty, and the tools of constrained optimization -- the main building blocks

  5. Abstract--The Black-Scholes (B-S) model is the traditional tool for giving a theoretical estimate of the price of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    of the price of European-style options. However, the basic assumptions on the assets and market made in the B-S model are ideal. Furthermore, a lot of factors which might affect the prices of options have not been) are applied to forecast the prices of stock options by using the six basic factors in the B-S model

  6. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  7. The long-run evolution of energy prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    1999-01-01

    I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price ...

  8. CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts Midyear Update, April 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    and government support) to fundamental forces (business and consumption spending) has reached a more advanced, (4) sustained elevated oil prices, and (5) financial shocks from the European sovereign debt crisis, reflecting continued but moderate expansion. Consumption Spending. Real personal consumption expenditure fell

  9. Statement from Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman Regarding...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Outlook which forecasts to 2030: "EIA's updated forecast projecting higher oil prices and increased demand reinforces the Department of Energy's commitment to the...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  11. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 3 May/June 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  12. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 4 July/August 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  13. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 3 May/June 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  14. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 5 September/October 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  15. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 4 July/August 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  16. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 6 November/December 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  17. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 5 September/October 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  18. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 1 January/February 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  19. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 2 March/April 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  20. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 4 July/August 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  1. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 3 May/June 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  2. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 6 November/December 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  3. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 2 March/April 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  4. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 4 July/August 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  5. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 21 NO. 5 September/October 2003 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  6. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 1 January/February 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  7. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 1 January/February 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  8. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 1 January/February 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  9. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 2 March/April 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  10. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 21 NO. 6 November/December 2003 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  11. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 6 November/December 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  12. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 3 May/June 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  13. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 5 September/October 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  14. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 2 March/April 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  15. Price controls and international petroleum product prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

    1980-02-01

    The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  17. Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Teschner, Matthias

    that are normally much less attractive than the prices in the wholesale market. The electricity demand is mainlyElectricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller University of Freiburg, Department of Computer Science Georges-Koehler Allee 079 79110 Freiburg, Germany

  18. Update: Oil protectionism - three views of US vulnerability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1987-06-30

    World oil prices seem to have stabilized above the US $18 mark, many US publics fear that market power will once again be transferred to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). When the price was weak, many observers said the weakness reflected victory over OPEC, as if the 1986 oil price crash were a result of the Organization's failure to exert its selfish will. Now that prices are higher, will US dependency on OPEC mushroom, fueling a campaign to protect indigenous crude oil prices through effective import fees. In this issue, latest available official import statistics for three views on how US oil import dependency might be evolving are supplied. This issue also contains: (1) ED refining netback data for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore for late June 1987; and (2) the ED fuel price/tax series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, June 1987 edition. 4 figures, 5 tables.

  19. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  20. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,