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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Dynamical Initialization for the Numerical Forecasting of Ocean Surface Circulations Using a Variational Assimilation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variational data assimilation system is presented for the initialization of an ocean surface circulation forecast system. The authors’ variational data assimilation system is designed to satisfy both statistical and dynamical constraints. As is ...

Yoichi Ishikawa; Toshiyuki Awaji; Nobumasa Komori

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Characteristics of Subsurface Ocean Response to ENSO Assessed from Simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The subsurface ocean temperature response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined based on 31-yr (1981–2011) simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The ...

Hui Wang; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang

3

A Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation Using Simple Nudging Data Assimilation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study describes the establishment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation (NFS-COC), which was run operationally on a daily basis to provide users ocean surface currents and sea levels that vary with synoptic winds, and ...

Jia Wang

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Climate Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean Sector in the NSIPP Seasonal Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prospects for forecasting Indian dipole mode (IDM) events with lead times of a season or more are examined using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model forecast system. The mean climatology of the system over ...

Roxana C. Wajsowicz

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional ... Keywords: Biogeochemical cycles, Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, Regional ocean prediction, Sea ice modeling, Split-explicit time stepping

D. B. Haidvogel; H. Arango; W. P. Budgell; B. D. Cornuelle; E. Curchitser; E. Di Lorenzo; K. Fennel; W. R. Geyer; A. J. Hermann; L. Lanerolle; J. Levin; J. C. McWilliams; A. J. Miller; A. M. Moore; T. M. Powell; A. F. Shchepetkin; C. R. Sherwood; R. P. Signell; J. C. Warner; J. Wilkin

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions ...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities Ocean...

7

NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions ...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NOS Point Forecast Guidance to Weather and Ocean Conditions Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean You are here Data.gov Communities ...

8

Intercomparison of the Performance of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting Systems with Buoy Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The monthly exchange of ocean wave model data has successfully been taking place among five operational weather centers. The data are compared with observations obtained from moored buoys and platforms. The analysis of 3 yr of data has helped to ...

Jean-Raymond Bidlot; Damian J. Holmes; Paul A. Wittmann; Roop Lalbeharry; Hsuan S. Chen

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Hua-Lu Pan; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; Robert Kistler; John Woollen; David Behringer; Haixia Liu; Diane Stokes; Robert Grumbine; George Gayno; Jun Wang; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-Ya Chuang; Hann-Ming H. Juang; Joe Sela; Mark Iredell; Russ Treadon; Daryl Kleist; Paul Van Delst; Dennis Keyser; John Derber; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Helin Wei; Rongqian Yang; Stephen Lord; Huug Van Den Dool; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang; Craig Long; Muthuvel Chelliah; Yan Xue; Boyin Huang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wesley Ebisuzaki; Roger Lin; Pingping Xie; Mingyue Chen; Shuntai Zhou; Wayne Higgins; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Quanhua Liu; Yong Chen; Yong Han; Lidia Cucurull; Richard W. Reynolds; Glenn Rutledge; Mitch Goldberg

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Retrospective ENSO Forecasts: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Model and Ocean Resolution  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are described from a series of 40 retrospective forecasts of tropical Pacific SST, starting 1 January and 1 July 1980–99, performed with several coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models sharing the same ocean model—the Modular ...

Edwin K. Schneider; Ben P. Kirtman; David G. DeWitt; Anthony Rosati; Link Ji; Joseph J. Tribbia

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

14

Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter ...

Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Ariel F. Stein; Albion Taylor; Mark G. Ruminski; Shobha Kondragunta; Jian Zeng; Ho-Chun Huang; Geoffrey Manikin; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula M. Davidson

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...

W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...

Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

18

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Dynamical forecast experiments with a baroclinic quasigeostrophic open ocean model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We report here on a series of numerical forecast experiments using a baroclinic quasigeostropic open ocean model. A simulation has been carried out to produce a model data set consisting of values of streamfunction and potential vorticity in four dimensions. This data set exhibits quasiturbulent characteristics similar to those of the mesoscale eddy field in the North Western Atlantic. The simulation has been carried out for several model years over many independent synoptic realizations.

Robert N. Miller; Allan R. Robinson

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Impact of ECCO Ocean-State Estimates on the Initialization of Seasonal Climate Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of ocean-state estimates generated by the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) on the initialization of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for seasonal climate forecasts is examined. The ...

Gabriel Cazes-Boezio; Dimitris Menemenlis; Carlos R. Mechoso

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

23

A Computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a prototype computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System (DMEFS). DMEFS is a research framework to develop and operate validated Climate-Weather-Ocean models. The DMEFS portal is implemented as ...

Tomasz Haupt; Purushotham Bangalore; Gregory Henley

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Analysis and Forecasting of Sea Ice Conditions with Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and a Coupled Ice–Ocean Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system has been developed to provide analyses of the ice–ocean state and to initialize a coupled ice–ocean numerical model for forecasting sea ice conditions. This study focuses on the ...

Alain Caya; Mark Buehner; Tom Carrieres

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Forecast Verification of the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Sea Ice Concentration Fields  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice–ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24–120-h sea ice forecasts. Here forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from PIPS ...

Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Ruth H. Preller; Pamela G. Posey

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

27

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

QuikSCAT Impacts on Coastal Forecasts and Warnings: Operational Utility of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study reports on the operational utility of ocean surface vector wind (SVW) data from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast ...

Ralph F. Milliff; Peter A. Stamus

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

A Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Modeling System: Simulation of the Intensity of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean modeling system (CAWOMS) based on the integration of atmosphere–wave, atmosphere–ocean, and wave–current interaction processes is developed. The component models consist of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)...

Bin Liu; Huiqing Liu; Lian Xie; Changlong Guan; Dongliang Zhao

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

31

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 2: Overview and invited papers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes.

Not Available

1990-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

32

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Niño Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Niño event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances ...

Shu-Chih Yang; Michele Rienecker; Christian Keppenne

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Investigating the Utility of Using Cross-Oceanic Training Sets for Superensemble Forecasting of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines how combining training-set forecasts from two separate oceanic basins affects the resulting tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a particular oceanic basin. Atlantic and eastern Pacific training sets for 2002 and ...

Mark R. Jordan II; T. N. Krishnamurti; Carol Anne Clayson

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Dynamical Forecast Experiments with a Barotropic Open Ocean Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The initial/boundary value problem for the barotropic version of a quasi-geostrophic open ocean model which requires normal flow everywhere on the boundary and vorticity on the inflow is studied. Parameter dependencies and sensitivities are ...

A. R. Robinson; D. B. Haidvogel

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the ...

Michael E. Charles; Brian A. Colle

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Correction and commentary for "Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the regional ocean modeling system" by Haidvogel et al., J. Comp. Phys. 227, pp. 3595-3624  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although our names appear as co-authors in the above article (Haidvogel et al. (2008) [1], hereafter H2008), we were not aware of its existence until after it was published. In reading the article, we discovered that a significant portion of it (~40%, ... Keywords: Conservation and constancy preservation, Regional ocean modeling, Split-explicit time stepping, Terrain-following coordinates

Alexander F. Shchepetkin; James C. McWilliams

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Nonlinear forecasting and iterated function systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The theory of dynamical forecasting can be extended to iterated function systems. An unordered set of iterates may be sufficient to construct a simulation of the unknown dynamics. The underlying dynamical system may be nondeterministic: A random element may be allowed in the dynamics

Giorgio Mantica; B. G. Giraud

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Synoptic Forecasting of the Oceanic Mixed Layer Using the Navy's Operational Environmental Data Base: Present Capabilities and Future Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A synoptic forecast model of the oceanic mixed layer has been developed for operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC), Monterey, Calif. The potential success of this model depends critically on the quality of ...

R. Michael Clancy; Paul J. Martin

1981-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temporally distributed deterministic and stochastic excitation of the tangent linear forecast system governing forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing assimilation error growth is examined. The method used is to ...

Brian F. Farrell; Petros J. Ioannou

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

50

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

From Oceans to Farms: The Value of a Novel Statistical Climate Forecast for Agricultural Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The economic value of seasonal climate forecasting is assessed using a whole-of-chain analysis. The entire system, from sea surface temperature (SST) through pasture growth and animal production to economic and resource outcomes, is examined. A ...

Peter C. McIntosh; Andrew J. Ash; Mark Stafford Smith

2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-making. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system ...

Haiyan Song; Zixuan Gao; Xinyan Zhang; Shanshan Lin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...

Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...

Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

58

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

59

Verification of Cloud Forecasts over the Eastern Pacific Using Passive Satellite Retrievals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Operational cloud forecasts generated by the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) were verified over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The study focused on the accuracy of cloud forecasts associated with extratropical cyclone ...

Jason E. Nachamkin; Jerome Schmidt; Cristian Mitrescu

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Monthly Forecast of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Using a Coupled GCM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its ...

Frédéric Vitart; Steve Woolnough; M. A. Balmaseda; A. M. Tompkins

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

An Ocean Observing System for Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Designs and implementation are proceeding for a Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The initial design for the ocean component of the GCOS, which is also the climate module of the GOOS, was completed ...

Worth D. Nowlin Jr.; Neville Smith; George Needler; Peter K. Taylor; Robert Weller; Ray Schmitt; Liliane Merlivat; Alain Vézina; Arthur Alexiou; Michael McPhaden; Massaaki Wakatsuchi

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

An Example of Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting with a Global Analysis-Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental ...

W. A. Heckley; M. J. Miller; A. K. Betts

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Dynamical Properties of MOS Forecasts: Analysis of the ECMWF Operational Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of ECMWF operational forecasts corrected by a (linear) model output statistics (MOS) technique are investigated, in light of the analysis performed in the context of low-order chaotic systems. Based on the latter work, ...

S. Vannitsem

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Changes to the 1995 NCEP Operational Medium-Range Forecast Model Analysis–Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent changes in the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) global analysis–forecast system are described. The most significant analysis change was the direct use of satellite-...

Peter Caplan; John Derber; William Gemmill; Song-You Hong; Hua-Lu Pan; David Parrish

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS)  

DOE Data Explorer (OSTI)

The Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS) was established by the Census of Marine Life program. It is an evolving strategic alliance of people and organizations sharing a vision to make marine biogeographic data, from all over the world, freely available over the World Wide Web. It is not a project or program, and is not limited to data from CoML-related projects. Any organization, consortium, project or individual may contribute. OBIS provides, on an open access basis through the World Wide Web, taxonomically and geographically resolved data on marine life and the ocean environment, interoperability with similar databases, and software tools for data exploration and analysis. The OBIS secretariat is hosted by Rutgers University, Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences. [Copied, then edited from http://www.iobis.org/about/

67

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were ...

Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Thomas M. Hamill; Xue Wei; Yucheng Song; Zoltan Toth

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses ...

Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

To forecast short-term load in electric power system based on FNN  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric power system load forecasting plays an important part in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has a great effect on the operating, controlling and planning of power system. Accurate load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting, ...

Yueli Hu; Huijie Ji; Xiaolong Song

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

A Short-Term Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasting System for Wind Power Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 h ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather ...

Justin J. Traiteur; David J. Callicutt; Maxwell Smith; Somnath Baidya Roy

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

74

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Forecast Skill of the South American Monsoon System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast ...

Charles Jones; Leila M. V. Carvalho; Brant Liebmann

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Harold E. Brooks; Steven J. Weiss; Stephen F. Corfidi

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

78

Application of Learning Fuzzy Inference Systems in Electricity Load Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper highlights the results and applied techniques for the electricity load forecast competition organised by the European Network on Intelligent Technologies for Smart Adaptive Systems (www.eunite.org). The electricity load forecast problem is tackled in two di#erent stages by creating two di#erent models. The first model will predict the temperature and the second model uses the predicted temperature to forecast the maximum electricity load. For both model, learning fuzzy inference systems are applied. Initial fuzzy rules are generated and then the numerical data provided by Eastern Slovakian Electricity Corporation are used to learn the parameters of the learning fuzzy inference systems. The learning technique is applied for both temperature and load forecast.

Ahamd Lotfi

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), South Atlantic Bight | Data...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

first-generation global system, a progression of planned ocean analysis and forecast systems delivered for Navy operations at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO)....

80

An Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System for Seasonal Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new ensemble ocean data assimilation system, developed for the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), is described. The new system is called PEODAS, the POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System. PEODAS is an approximate ...

Yonghong Yin; Oscar Alves; Peter R. Oke

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) is used by the U.S. Navy for depiction of three-dimensional fields of temperature and salinity over the global ocean. MODAS includes both a static climatology and a dynamic climatology. While the ...

D. N. Fox; W. J. Teague; C. N. Barron; M. R. Carnes; C. M. Lee

2002-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

The NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensemble Product: Expanding Benefits of Inter-Agency Probabilistic Forecasts to the Oceanic Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have joined forces to establish a first global multi-center ensemble system dedicated to probabilistic forecasts of wind-...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Paul Wittmann; Michael Sestak; Jessica Schauer; Scott Stripling; Natacha B. Bernier; Jamie McLean; Yung Chao; Arun Chawla; Hendrik Tolman; Glenn Nelson; Stephen Klotz

83

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

86

Large Forecast Degradations due to Synoptic Surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Though operational tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance generally leads to smaller track forecast errors in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecasting System (GFS) than would occur otherwise, not every case is ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Retrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 (CFSv2)] shows ...

Qin Zhang; Huug van den Dool

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Singhal, Gaurav

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Indian Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An integrated in situ Indian Ocean observing system (IndOOS) is simulated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) with daily mean forcing, including an estimate of subdaily oceanic variability derived from observations. The ...

Gabriel A. Vecchi; Matthew J. Harrison

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models Using GODAE Nowcasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To simulate tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, coupled ocean–atmosphere prediction models must realistically reproduce the magnitude and pattern of storm-forced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. The potential for the ocean to support ...

G. R. Halliwell Jr.; L. K. Shay; S. D. Jacob; O. M. Smedstad; E. W. Uhlhorn

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Intelligent Circuit Breaker Forecasting and Prewarning System Research  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes an intelligent circuit breaker software and hardware design, real-time multi-task alarm system will be introduced into circuit breaker monitoring and control, to the timely opening and timely alarm. According to the different impact ... Keywords: Intelligent circuit breaker, forecasting, prewarning

Jiaomin Liu; Li Li; Yaxuan Li; Peng Liu

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Knowledge representation in an expert storm forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

METEOR is a rule- and frame-based system for short-term (3-18 hour) severe convective storm forecasting. This task requires a framework that supports inferences about the temporal and spatial features of meteorological changes. Initial predictions are ...

Renee Elio; Johannes De Haan

1985-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...

Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

A Numerical Daily Air Quality Forecast System for The Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A real-time photochemical air quality forecast system has been implemented for the Puget Sound region to support public awareness of air quality issues. The Air Indicator Report for Public Access and Community Tracking (AIRPACT) forecast system ...

Joseph Vaughan; Brian Lamb; Chris Frei; Rob Wilson; Clint Bowman; Cristiana Figueroa-Kaminsky; Sally Otterson; Mike Boyer; Cliff Mass; Mark Albright; Jane Koenig; Alice Collingwood; Mike Gilroy; Naydene Maykut

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Use of a Real-Time Computer Graphics System in Analysis and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-time computer graphics systems are being introduced into weather stations throughout the United States. A sample of student forecasters used such a system to solve specific specialized forecasting problems. Results suggest that for some ...

John J. Cahir; John M. Norman; Dale A. Lowry

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes results from the second phase of the California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project.

2003-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

98

Impact of Kalpana-1-Derived Water Vapor Winds on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The water vapor winds from the operational geostationary Indian National Satellite (INSAT) Kalpana-1 have recently become operational at the Space Applications Centre (SAC). A series of experimental forecasts are attempted here to evaluate the ...

S. K. Deb; C. M. Kishtawal; P. K. Pal

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Hindcasting and Forecasting of the POLYMODE Data Set with the Harvard Open–Ocean Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A regional quasi-geostrophic model has been used to hindcast and forecast the POLYMODE data set. After briefly discussing hindcast methodology, the hindcast fields are compared with the analyzed data set Periods of significant difference of ...

Leonard J. Walstad; Allan R. Robinson

1990-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Summer-Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To examine the impact from land model upgrades and different land initializations on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Climate Forecast System (CFS), extensive T126 CFS experiments are carried out for 25 summers with 10 ...

Rongqian Yang; Kenneth Mitchell; Jesse Meng; Michael Ek

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Patterns of Land Surface Errors and Biases in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One year’s worth of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure) are validated for land-based stations over the entire planet for forecasts ...

David Werth; Alfred Garrett

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

A Diagnostic Verification of the Precipitation Forecasts Produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a given threshold was ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a ...

Steven M. Lazarus; Samuel T. Wilson; Michael E. Splitt; Gary A. Zarillo

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning Automated Thunderstorm Tracks into Severe Weather Warnings  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a new tool called the Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System (TIFS; formerly known as ThunderBox) for interactively producing finished severe weather warnings and other forecasts from ...

John Bally

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Neural networks based multiplex forecasting system of the end-point of copper blow period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The neural network and the experiential evaluation method are introduced into the industrial converting process forecast, and a multiplex forecast system is proposed at the end-point of copper blow period in a matte converting process. The fuzzy clustering ...

Lihua Xue; Hongzhong Huang; Yaohua Hu; Zhangming Shi

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy ...

Gabriel García-Medina; H. Tuba Özkan-Haller; Peter Ruggiero; Jeffrey Oskamp

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

A deterministic air quality forecasting system for Torino urban area, Italy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An urban air quality forecasting system for Torino city has been developed, within the EU funded project FUMAPEX, to support the prevention and management of urban air pollution episodes. The proposed forecasting system is designed to provide stakeholders ... Keywords: Air quality forecasting, Air quality management, Chemical transport models, Urban air pollution, Urban meteorology

S. Finardi; R. De Maria; A. D'Allura; C. Cascone; G. Calori; F. Lollobrigida

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction Xing, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initiali- zation to improve the seasonal climate forecasts. We present a first look at the capability

Pan, Ming

110

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP’s Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006–August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10–20 hydrologic basins in ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Jun Du

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

Heinemann, Detlev

112

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

113

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Vol. 3  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 MW in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 percent Renewable Portfolio Standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forecasting ...

2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

114

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit ...

Warren J. Tennant; Zoltan Toth; Kevin J. Rae

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Research investigating the importance of the subsurface ocean structure on tropical cyclone intensity change has been ongoing for several decades. While the emergence of altimetry-derived sea height observations from satellites dates back to the ...

Michelle Mainelli; Mark DeMaria; Lynn K. Shay; Gustavo Goni

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

pricing. Although it is known that probabilistic forecasts (which give a distribution over possible futureLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields Matt Wytock and J. Zico Kolter Abstract-- Short-term forecasting is a ubiquitous practice

Kolter, J. Zico

118

Lockheed Testing the Waters for Ocean Thermal Energy System  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The company is working to develop a system to produce electricity using temperature differences in the ocean.

119

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS Jump to: navigation, search Name Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS) Place San Diego, California Zip 92138 Sector Ocean, Renewable Energy Product POEMS was formed to involve the public in providing support for the development of ocean energy as a viable component of the renewable energy market. References Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS)[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS) is a company located in San Diego, California . References ↑ "Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS)" Retrieved from

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Characterization and Impact of Extreme Forecast Errors on Power Systems  

SciTech Connect

Extreme events in the electrical power system, caused by the load and wind forecasting errors, can impact the power system infrastructure via two main avenues. The first avenue is a sudden and significant power unbalance exceeding reasonable operating reserve capacity. The second is a sudden increase of power flows on the system critical paths causing transmission violations. The challenge in managing these system unbalances is more significant for a standalone balancing area operation. The consolidation of balancing authorities into a single balancing area can offset the operating reserve problem but this strategy enhances incremental power flows on the transmission interfaces, potentially leading to more unpredictable transmission congestion. This paper evaluates the expectancy of occurrence of tail events due to forecast error extremes using California ISO and BPA data. Having this type of information, independent system operators and operating utilities could be better prepared to address the tail events by exploring alternative reserve options such as: wide area control coordination, new operating proce-dures and remedial actions.

Heydt, Gerald T.; Vittal, Vijay; Malhara, Sunita V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Zhou, Ning; Etingov, Pavel V.

2011-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

122

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

123

FUTURA: Hybrid System for Electric Load Forecasting by Using Case-Based Reasoning and Expert System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of combining a numeric extrapolation of data with the methodology of case-based reasoning and expert systems in order to improve the electric load forecasting are presented in this contribution. Registers of power consumption are stored as ...

Raúl Vilcahuamán; Joaquim Meléndez; Josep Lluis de la Rosa

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Decadal Analysis Produced from an Ocean Data Assimilation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A global oceanic four-dimensional data assimilation system has been developed for use in initializing coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models and also to study interannual variability. The data inserted into a high-resolution global ...

A. Rosati; R. Gudgel; K. Miyakoda

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes initial results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2003-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

127

A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Capsule: The development and implementation of a drought monitoring and seasonal hydrological forecast system for sub-Saharan Africa contributes to building capacity through technology and knowledge transfer.

Justin Sheffield; Eric F. Wood; Nathaniel Chaney; Kaiyu Guan; Sara Sadri; Xing Yuan; Luke Olang; Abou Amani; Abdou Ali; Siegfried Demuth; Laban Ogallo

128

Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An improved open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system including a flash evaporator for vaporizing relatively warm ocean surface water and an axial flow, elastic fluid turbine having a vertical shaft and axis of rotation. The warm ocean water is transmitted to the evaporator through a first prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure circumferentially situated about the axis of rotation. The unflashed warm ocean water exits the evaporator through a second prestressed concrete skirt-conduit structure located circumferentially about and radially within the first skirt-conduit structure. The radially inner surface of the second skirt conduit structure constitutes a cylinder which functions as the turbine's outer casing and obviates the need for a conventional outer housing. The turbine includes a radially enlarged disc element attached to the shaft for supporting at least one axial row of radially directed blades through which the steam is expanded. A prestressed concrete inner casing structure of the turbine has upstream and downstream portions respectively situated upstream and downstream from the disc element. The radially outer surfaces of the inner casing portions and radially outer periphery of the axially interposed disc cooperatively form a downwardly radially inwardly tapered surface. An annular steam flowpath of increasing flow area in the downward axial direction is radially bounded by the inner and outer prestressed concrete casing structures. The inner casing portions each include a transversely situated prestressed concrete circular wall for rotatably supporting the turbine shaft and associated structure. The turbine blades are substantially radially coextensive with the steam flowpath and receive steam from the evaporator through an annular array of prestressed concrete stationary vanes which extend between the inner and outer casings to provide structural support therefor and impart a desired flow direction to the steam.

Wittig, J. Michael (West Goshen, PA)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Shipping source level estimation for ambient noise forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability to accurately estimate shipping source levels from ambient noise data is an essential step towards creating a forecast model of the ocean soundscape. Source level estimates can be obtained by solving the system of linear equations

Jeffrey S. Rogers; Steven L. Means; Stephen C. Wales

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave ...

Martin Charron; Saroja Polavarapu; Mark Buehner; P. A. Vaillancourt; Cécilien Charette; Michel Roch; Josée Morneau; Louis Garand; Josep M. Aparicio; Stephen MacPherson; Simon Pellerin; Judy St-James; Sylvain Heilliette

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

132

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting uses sophisticated numerical weather forecasting and wind plant power generation models to predict the hourly energy generation of a wind power plant up to 48 hours in advance. As a result, it has great potential to address the needs of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and the wind plant operators, as well as power marketers and buyers and utility system dispatch personnel. This report gives the results of 28 days of testing of wind energy forecasting at a Californ...

2003-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

133

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

134

Combining artificial neural networks and heuristic rules in a hybrid intelligent load forecast system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this work, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is combined to Heuristic Rules producing a powerful hybrid intelligent system for short and mid-term electric load forecasting. The Heuristic Rules are used to adjust the ANN output to improve the system ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electric load forecast, heuristic rules, hybrid system

Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino; Aida A. Ferreira; Manoel A. Carvalho, Jr.; Milde M. S. Lira; Geane B. Silva; Otoni Nóbrega Neto

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The observing and forecasting conditions of coastal oceans in Alaska is technically challenging because of the mountainous terrain, the notoriously stormy seas, and a complex hydrological system of freshwater from rivers and glaciers. The Alaska Ocean ...

G. Carl Schoch; Yi Chao; Francois Colas; John Farrara; Molly McCammon; Peter Olsson; Gaurav Singhal

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The predictability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system on interannual to decadal timescales has been studied by means of ensemble forecast experiments with a global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Over most parts of ...

A. Grötzner; M. Latif; A. Timmermann; R. Voss

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Seasonal Prediction of Thermal Stress Accumulation for Coral Bleaching in the Tropical Oceans  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Mass coral bleaching, associated with anomalously warm ocean temperatures over large regions, poses a serious threat to the future health of the world coral reef systems. Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean–atmosphere models can be a valuable ...

C. M. Spillman; O. Alves; D. A. Hudson

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

An Evaluation of Environment Canada's Operational Ocean Wave Model Based on Moored Buoy Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational ocean wave model called the Canadian Spectral Ocean Wave Model (CSOWM) has been implemented in the operational forecasting system of the Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, since early 1991. The present operational ...

M. L. Khandekar; R. Lalbeharry

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Evaluating Ocean Management Systems to Facilitate the Development of Ecosystem-Based Management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Report R/OPC-ENV-02 Evaluating Ocean Management Systems toinformation about how the oceans are governed can be gleanedthe understanding of existing ocean governance to assist

Young, Oran R

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

Breivik, Øyvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

The complex fuzzy system forecasting model based on triangular fuzzy robust wavelet ?-support vector machine  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new version of fuzzy wavelet support vector regression machine to forecast the nonlinear fuzzy system with multi-dimensional input variables. The input and output variables of the proposed model are described as triangular fuzzy ... Keywords: Fuzzy ?-support vector machine, Fuzzy system forecasting, Particle swarm optimization, Wavelet kernel function

Qi Wu

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is the culmination of a 3-yr project to develop a numerical primitive equation system for generating high-resolution (1–5 km) short-term (24–36 h) forecasts for the Australian coastal cities ...

M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Tory; M. Azzi; J. Carras; W. Lilley; P. C. Manins; P. Nelson; L. Ng; K. Puri; N. Wong; S. Walsh; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

The Land Surface Analysis in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) uses the NASA Land Information System (LIS) to create its land surface analysis: the NCEP Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Comparing to the previous two generations of NCEP global ...

Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Helin Wei; Michael Ek; George Gayno; Pingping Xie; Kenneth Mitchell

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Ensemble Precipitation and Water-Level Forecasts for Anticipatory Water-System Control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is presented for testing weather forecast products for applications in anticipatory water-system control. The applicability of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ECMWF is tested for flood control in a regional water system in ...

Schalk Jan van Andel; Roland K. Price; Arnold H. Lobbrecht; Frans van Kruiningen; Robert Mureau

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Ocean energy conversion systems annual research report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Alternative power cycle concepts to the closed-cycle Rankine are evaluated and those that show potential for delivering power in a cost-effective and environmentally acceptable fashion are explored. Concepts are classified according to the ocean energy resource: thermal, waves, currents, and salinity gradient. Research projects have been funded and reported in each of these areas. The lift of seawater entrained in a vertical steam flow can provide potential energy for a conventional hydraulic turbine conversion system. Quantification of the process and assessment of potential costs must be completed to support concept evaluation. Exploratory development is being completed in thermoelectricity and 2-phase nozzles for other thermal concepts. Wave energy concepts are being evaluated by analysis and model testing with present emphasis on pneumatic turbines and wave focussing. Likewise, several conversion approaches to ocean current energy are being evaluated. The use of salinity resources requires further research in membranes or the development of membraneless processes. Using the thermal resource in a Claude cycle process as a power converter is promising, and a program of R and D and subsystem development has been initiated to provide confirmation of the preliminary conclusion.

Not Available

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

A Real-Time Eulerian Photochemical Model Forecast System: Overview and Initial Ozone Forecast Performance in the Northeast U.S. Corridor  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article reports on the first implementation of a real-time Eulerian photochemical model forecast system in the United States. The forecast system consists of a tripartite set of one-way coupled models that run routinely on a parallel ...

John N. McHenry; William F. Ryan; Nelson L. Seaman; Carlie J. Coats Jr; Janusz Pudykiewicz; Sarav Arunachalam; Jeffery M. Vukovich

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Comparative analysis of models integrating synoptic forecast data into potato late blight risk estimate systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Determinacy analysis, logistic regression, discriminant analysis and neural network models were compared for their accuracy in 5-day (120h) forecasts of daily potato late blight risk according to a modified-Wallin disease severity model. For 12 locations ... Keywords: Expert systems, Forecasting, Neural network models, Risk mitigation

Kathleen M. Baker; William W. Kirk

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Improved forecasting of time series data of real system using genetic programming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A study is made to improve short term forecasting of time series data of real system using Genetic Programming (GP) under the framework of time delayed embedding technique. GP based approach is used to make analytical model of time series data of real ... Keywords: genetic programming, state-space reconstruction, time series forecasting

Dilip P. Ahalpara

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new radiation package, “McRad,” has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...

J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Nettuno: Analysis of a Wind and Wave Forecast System in the Mediterranean Sea  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Nettuno is a wind and wave forecast system in the Mediterranean Sea. It has been operational since 2009 producing twice a day high resolution forecasts for the next 72 hours. We have carried out a detailed analysis of the results, both in space ...

Luciana Bertotti; Luigi Cavaleri; Layla Loffredo; Lucio Torrisi

153

Smart Vibration Monitoring System for an Ocean Turbine  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a Smart Vibration Monitoring System (SVMS) developed as an effective way to reduce equipment losses and enhance safety, efficiency, reliability, availability and long life time duration of an ocean turbine. The system utilizes advanced ... Keywords: Diagnostics, Vibration, Monitoring, Dynamometer, Ocean Turbine

Mustapha Mjit; Pierre-Philippe J. Beaujean; David J. Vendittis

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

The Description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present a description of the development of the spectral forecast components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The original system, called 3.0, was introduced in January 1988. New versions were introduced ...

Timothy F. Hogan; Thomas E. Rosmond

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

The Regional Analysis and Forecast System of the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The three components of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), ...

James E. Hoke; Norman A. Phillips; Geoffrey J. Dimego; James J. Tuccillo; Joseph G. Sela

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasting systems, and related systems for decadal prediction, are crucial in the development of adaptation strategies to climate change. However, despite important achievements in this area in the last 10 years, significant levels of ...

Alberto Arribas; M. Glover; A. Maidens; K. Peterson; M. Gordon; C. MacLachlan; R. Graham; D. Fereday; J. Camp; A. A. Scaife; P. Xavier; P. McLean; A. Colman; S. Cusack

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological ...

Robert R. Lee; Jeffrey E. Passner

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this ...

A. J. Challinor; J. M. Slingo; T. R. Wheeler; P. Q. Craufurd; D. I. F. Grimes

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a unique problem in the eastern United States due to the influence of the Appalachian Mountains. At times these systems are able to traverse the terrain and produce severe ...

Casey E. Letkewicz; Matthew D. Parker

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operational coupled land–atmosphere forecast model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is evaluated for the strength and characteristics of its coupling in the water cycle between land and atmosphere. Following the ...

Li Zhang; Paul A. Dirmeyer; Jiangfeng Wei; Zhichang Guo; Cheng-Hsuan Lu

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...

Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

TEACHMET: An Expert System for Teaching Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Students or weather forecasting need to learn to identify efficiently the information relevant to the elements they predict. One way students learn these skills is by engaging in discussions of interesting weather situations as they occur. In ...

Nathan M. Reiss; James C. Hofmann

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

METEOR: An Artificial Intelligence System for Convective Storm Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An experienced forecaster can use several different types of knowledge in forcing. First, there is his theoretical understanding of meteorology, which is well entrenched in current numerical models. A second type is his “local knowledge,” gained ...

Renée Elio; Johannes De Haan; G. S. Strong

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Prediction Skill and Bias of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. The CFSv2 was ...

Yan Xue; Mingyue Chen; Arun Kumar; Zeng-Zhen Hu; Wanqiu Wang

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Tropical Cyclone Formations over the Western North Pacific in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A set of criteria is developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations from 1997 to 1999 are ...

Kevin K. W. Cheung; Russell L. Elsberry

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...

Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Forecasting distribution system loads using curve shape clustering  

SciTech Connect

Trending using curve fitting to past small area load growth is an economical but not highly accurate method of forecasting loads for distribution planning. A new trending method uses clustering of historical load at the small area level as the forecast algorithm. This new method has significant performance advantages over normal curve fit methods and can be implemented in 16 bit integer arithmetic on most computers. The method and test results are discussed in detail.

Willis, H.L.; Northcote-Green, J.E.D.; Schauer, A.E.; Vismor, T.D.

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Ocean Engineering and Energy Systems | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

and Energy Systems Jump to: navigation, search Name Ocean Engineering and Energy Systems Sector Marine and Hydrokinetic Website http:www.ocees.com Region United States LinkedIn...

171

The Inverse Ocean Modeling System. Part II: Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) System is a modular system for constructing and running weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation (W4DVAR) for any linear or nonlinear functionally smooth dynamical model and observing array. ...

J. C. Muccino; H. Luo; H. G. Arango; D. Haidvogel; J. C. Levin; A. F. Bennett; B. S. Chua; G. D. Egbert; B. D. Cornuelle; A. J. Miller; E. Di Lorenzo; A. M. Moore; E. D. Zaron

2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, “Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.” This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year’s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

173

Turbine speed control for an ocean wave energy conversion system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this work, a hydraulic turbine speed governor is proposed in view of its application in an isolated electric generation system based on an ocean wave energy converter (WEC). The proposed strategy is based on cascade closed-loop control combined with ... Keywords: Pelton turbine, cascade control, feedforward control, ocean wave energy, speed governor

Paula B. Garcia-Rosa; José Paulo V. S. Cunha; Fernando Lizarralde

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Precipitation Forecasting Using Doppler Radar Data, a Cloud Model with Adjoint, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Real Case Studies during SoWMEX in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) capability of the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) is investigated in the Taiwan area, where the complex topography and surrounding oceans pose great challenges to accurate rainfall ...

Sheng-Lun Tai; Yu-Chieng Liou; Juanzhen Sun; Shao-Fan Chang; Min-Chao Kuo

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Space-Time Wind Speed Forecasting for Improved Power System Dispatch  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large scale integration of wind power, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient scheduling of wind power in electric energy systems. In this article, space-time wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models. First, we proposed a new space-time wind forecasting model, which generalizes and improves upon a so-called regime-switching space-time model by allowing the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons. Then, results from the new wind forecasting model are implemented into a power system economic dispatch model, which takes into account both spatial and temporal wind speed correlations. This, in turn, leads to an overall more cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation portfolio. The potential economic benefits arise in the system-wide generation cost savings and in the ancillary service cost savings. This is illustrated in a test system in the northwest region of the U.S. Compared with persistent and autoregressive models, our proposed method could lead to annual integration cost savings on the scale of tens of millions of dollars in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Northwest. Key words: Power system economic dispatch; Power system operation; Space-time statistical model; Wind data; Wind speed forecasting.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton; Yingzhong Gu; Le Xie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual ...

Song Yang; Zuqiang Zhang; Vernon E. Kousky; R. Wayne Higgins; Soo-Hyun Yoo; Jianyin Liang; Yun Fan

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Modeling the Distribution of Precipitation Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Kernel Density Estimation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a powerful tool widely used ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Sensitivity of Forecast Rainfall in a Texas Convective System to Soil Moisture and Convective Parameterization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of soil moisture on the forecast of a small-scale convective system, and sensitivity of results to the convective parameterization used, are investigated through Eta Model simulations (run in an operational-like setting) of a ...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Model Bias in a Continuously Cycled Assimilation System and Its Influence on Convection-Permitting Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the spring 2011 season, a real-time continuously cycled ensemble data assimilation system using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed toolkit ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems*  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space ...

Baruch Ziv; Yoav Yair; Karin Presman; Martin Füllekrug

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble forecast system consists of ...

Tadashi Fujita; David J. Stensrud; David C. Dowell

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Test of a Poor Man’s Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential severe-weather developments. A ...

A. Arribas; K. B. Robertson; K. R. Mylne

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form of probabilities of ...

Laurence J. Wilson; William R. Burrows; Andreas Lanzinger

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 1: Strategic summary  

SciTech Connect

The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ``technology transfer`` from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean`s response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation.

Not Available

1990-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

187

Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

NOAA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have developed a national air quality forecasting (AQF) system that is based on numerical models for meteorology, emissions, and chemistry. The AQF system generates gridded model forecasts ...

Tanya L. Otte; George Pouliot; Jonathan E. Pleim; Jeffrey O. Young; Kenneth L. Schere; David C. Wong; Pius C. S. Lee; Marina Tsidulko; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula Davidson; Rohit Mathur; Hui-Ya Chuang; Geoff DiMego; Nelson L. Seaman

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Several modeling studies have shown that the south Asian monsoon region has the lowest skill for seasonal forecasts compared with many other domains of the world. This paper demonstrates that a multimodel synthetic superensemble approach, when ...

Arindam Chakraborty; T. N. Krishnamurti

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Improved Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the Asian Monsoon Using 16 Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Models. Part I: Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The goal of this study is to utilize several recent developments on rainfall data collection, downscaling of available climate models, training and forecasts from such models within the framework of a multimodel superensemble, and first a detailed ...

Vinay Kumar; T. N. Krishnamurti

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

An Operational Global-Scale Ocean Thermal Analysis System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Optimum Thermal Interpolation System (OTIS) is an ocean thermal analysis product developed for real-time operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center. It functions in an analysis-prediction-analysis data assimilation ...

R. Michael Clancy; Patricia A. Phoebus; Kenneth D. Pollak

1990-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

2.019 Design of Ocean Systems, Fall 2005  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This course is the completion of the cycle of designing, implementing and testing an ocean system, including hardware and software implementation, that begins with 2.017J. Design lectures are given in hydrodynamics, power ...

Chryssostomidis, Chryssostomos

192

An Iterative Radiative Transfer Code For Ocean-Atmosphere Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We describe the details of an iterative radiative transfer code for computing the intensity and degree of polarization of diffuse radiation in models of the ocean-atmosphere system. The present code neglects the upwelling radiation from below the ...

Ziauddin Ahmad; Robert S. Fraser

1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

The Inverse Ocean Modeling System. Part I: Implementation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system constructs and runs weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational data assimilation (W4DVAR) for any dynamical model and any observing array. The dynamics and the observing algorithms may be nonlinear but ...

A. F. Bennett; B. S. Chua; B. L. Pflaum; M. Erwig; Z. Fu; R. D. Loft; J. C. Muccino

2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Examination of the Impact of a Coupled Atmospheric and Ocean Wave System. Part II: Ocean Wave Aspects  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A coupled atmospheric and ocean wave system has been developed to study the impact of changes of surface roughness length induced by ocean waves. A two-way coupling between a mesoscale atmospheric model, MC2, and an oceanic wave model, a regional ...

R. Lalbeharry; J. Mailhot; S. Desjardins; L. Wilson

2000-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Convective-Scale Warn-on-Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Weather Service (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods because these phenomena are a threat to life and property. These warnings are ...

David J. Stensrud; Louis J. Wicker; Kevin E. Kelleher; Ming Xue; Michael P. Foster; Joseph T. Schaefer; Russell S. Schneider; Stanley G. Benjamin; Stephen S. Weygandt; John T. Ferree; Jason P. Tuell

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, energy management systems, fuzzy logic, load behaviour estimation, power system distribution, power system restoration, residential load forecasting, thermostatically controlled loads

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

A System Dynamics Approach for Developing Zone Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study of Linkong Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

System dynamics (SD) approach for developing zone water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of its water resources system which has multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions amongst system elements. As an example, Tianjin Binhai Linkong ... Keywords: developing zone, system dynamics, water resources demand, Linkong

Xuehua Zhang; Hongwei Zhang; Xinhua Zhao

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Assimilation of Subsurface Thermal Data into a Simple Ocean Model for the Initialization of an Intermediate Tropical Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An adjoint variational assimilation technique is used to assimilate observations of both the oceanic state and wind stress data into an intermediate coupled ENSO prediction model. This method of initialization is contrasted with the more usual ...

Richard Kleeman; Andrew M. Moore; Neville R. Smith

1995-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of ˆP ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part I: Coarse-Grained Predictions in a Simple Ocean Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the long-range coarse-grained predictive skill in a perfect-model environment. Central to the scheme is the notion that long-range forecasting involves regimes; specifically, that the ...

Dimitrios Giannakis; Andrew J. Majda

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System | Data.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

world's oceans. Tags ocean, oceanography, sea ice, biochemistry, numerical weather forecasting, geophysics, ocean dynamics, climate, meteorology, ocean currents, NASA, JPL...

205

Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)] using a linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach. It ...

Ed Hawkins; Rowan Sutton

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

A novel statistical time-series pattern based interval forecasting strategy for activity durations in workflow systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting workflow activity durations is of great importance to support satisfactory QoS in workflow systems. Traditionally, a workflow system is often designed to facilitate the process automation in a specific application domain where activities ... Keywords: Activity duration, Interval forecasting, Statistical time series, Time-series patterns, Workflow system

Xiao Liu; Zhiwei Ni; Dong Yuan; Yuanchun Jiang; Zhangjun Wu; Jinjun Chen; Yun Yang

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

The Monsoon as a Selfregulating Coupled OceanAtmosphere System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

DRAFT The Monsoon as a Self­regulating Coupled Ocean­Atmosphere System Peter J. Webster 1 Observational studies have shown that the Asian­Australasian monsoon system exhibits variability over a wide, the South Asian monsoon (at least as described by Indian precipitation) exhibits a smaller range

Webster, Peter J.

208

Airborne Optical System for Remote Sensing of Ocean Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A compact, turret-based optical system has been designed and constructed for passive imaging of ocean waves using a small aircraft. The purpose of the system is to collect time series of images, which are mapped to a common geodetic surface in ...

J. P. Dugan; G. J. Fetzer; J. Bowden; G. J. Farruggia; J. Z. Williams; C. C. Piotrowski; K. Vierra; D. Campion; D. N. Sitter

2001-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional WRF ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

210

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather System’s mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...

Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Rigorous Evaluation of a Fraternal Twin Ocean OSSE System for the Open Gulf of Mexico  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new fraternal twin ocean Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) system is validated in a Gulf of Mexico domain. It is the first ocean system that takes full advantage of design criteria and rigorous evaluation procedures developed to ...

G. R. Halliwell; Jr.; A. Srinivasan; V. Kourafalou; H. Yang; D. Willey; M. Le Hénaff; R. Atlas

213

Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

Chin, H S

2005-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

214

Long range forecast of power demands on the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company system. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect

The report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGandE) through the year 2003. The report describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations and associated summary statistics, the forecast assumptions, and the calculated forecasts of energy usage and peak demand. Separate models were estimated for summer and winter residential electricity usage in both Baltimore city and the non-city portion of the BGandE service area. Equations were also estimated for commercial energy usage, industrial usage, streetlighting, and for losses plus Company use. Non-econometric techniques were used to estimate future energy use by Bethlehem Steel Corporation's Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore County, Conrail, and the Baltimore Mass Transit Administration underground rail system. Models of peak demand for summer and winter were also estimated.

Estomin, S.L.; Kahal, M.I.

1985-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts.com Abstract The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predic and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south

Webster, Peter J.

216

A forecasting system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A predictive system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is proposed in this paper. The proposed work consists of three parts: information acquisition, fuel consumption forecasting algorithm and performance evaluation. ... Keywords: Artificial neural network, Car fuel consumption, Radial basis function algorithm

Jian-Da Wu; Jun-Ching Liu

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A detailed evaluation of NOAA’s Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is a fundamental part of its development and further refinement. In this work, particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5-?m (PM2.5) concentration levels, simulated ...

Ariel F. Stein; Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Barbara Stunder; Mark Ruminski

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Load forecasting framework of electricity consumptions for an Intelligent Energy Management System in the user-side  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work presents an electricity consumption-forecasting framework configured automatically and based on an Adaptative Neural Network Inference System (ANFIS). This framework is aimed to be implemented in industrial plants, such as automotive factories, ... Keywords: ANFIS, Forecasting, Genetic algorithm, Intelligent EMS, Modelling

Juan J. Cárdenas; Luis Romeral; Antonio Garcia; Fabio Andrade

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Application of a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary system for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Hybrid neuro-evolutionary system, Neural network, Price forecast

Nima Amjady; Farshid Keynia

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) shows considerable skill at forecasting changes in North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content and surface temperature up to a ...

Stephen Yeager; Alicia Karspeck; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Joe Tribbia; Haiyan Teng

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Real-Time Multimodel Superensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, Atlantic hurricane forecasts for the year 1999 are addressed. The methodology for these forecasts is called the multimodel superensemble. This statistical method makes use of the real-time forecasts provided by a number of ...

C. Eric Williford; T. N. Krishnamurti; Ricardo Correa Torres; Steven Cocke; Zaphiris Christidis; T. S. Vijaya Kumar

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the fluctuating wind and solar resources an indispensable necessity. Any efficient imple- mentation of wind-alone photovoltaic or wind energy systems, control systems in buildings, control of solar thermal power plants time constants. For example, an operation of a PV-diesel system needs information in the very short

Heinemann, Detlev

225

Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...

P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Ocean energy systems. Quarterly report, January-March 1983  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Progress is reported on the development of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) systems that will provide synthetic fuels (e.g., methanol), energy-intensive products such as ammonia (for fertilizers and chemicals), and aluminum. The work also includes assessment and design concepts for hybrid plants, such as geothermal-OTEC (GEOTEC) plants. Another effort that began in the spring of 1982 is a technical advisory role to DOE with respect to their management of the conceptual and preliminary design activity of industry teams that are designing a shelf-mounted offshore OTEC pilot plant that could deliver power to Oahu, Hawaii. In addition, a program is underway to evaluate and test the Pneumatic Wave-Energy Conversion System (PWECS), an ocean-energy device consisting of a turbine that is air-driven as a result of wave action in a chamber. This Quarterly Report summarizes the work on the various tasks as of 31 March 1983.

Not Available

1983-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

227

Enhancement of Tropical Ocean Evaporation and Sensible Heat Flux by Atmospheric Mesoscale Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The enhancement of monthly averaged evaporation by atmospheric mesoscale systems is estimated from long-term hourly observations of surface meteorological data from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) buoy ...

Steven K. Esbensen; Michael J. McPhaden

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

A Simulation of Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many prediction schemes, the skill of long-range forecasts of ENSO events depends on the time of year. Such variability could be directly due to seasonal changes in the basic ocean-atmosphere system or due to the state of ENSO itself.

M. K. Davey; D. L. T. Anderson; S. Lawrence

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Ocean energy systems. Quarterly report, October-December 1982  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Research progress is reported on developing Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) systems that will provide synthetic fuels (e.g., methanol), energy-intensive products such as ammonia (for fertilizers and chemicals), and aluminum. The work also includes assessment and design concepts for hybrid plants, such as geothermal-OTEC (GEOTEC) plants. Another effort that began in the spring of 1982 is a technical advisory role to DOE with respect to their management of the conceptual design activity of the two industry teams that are designing offshore OTEC pilot plants that could deliver power to Oahu, Hawaii. In addition, a program is underway in which tests of a different kind of ocean-energy device, a turbine that is air-driven as a result of wave action in a chamber, are being planned. This Quarterly Report summarizes the work on the various tasks as of 31 December 1982.

Not Available

1982-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Westerly Wind Events and the 1997/98 El Niño Event in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System: A Case Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 1997/98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. Its onset was predicted by several numerical models, though none fully captured its intensity. This was the case for the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system that underestimated the ...

Frédéric Vitart; Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; David Anderson

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case Study of a Melbourne 4-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during ...

K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; N. Wong

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The effect of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation. Two sets of experiments are analyzed. The primary experiment compares ...

Steven L. Mullen; Roberto Buizza

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Impact of the Different Components of 4DVAR on the Global Forecast System of the Meteorological Service of Canada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme has recently been implemented in the medium-range weather forecast system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). The new scheme is now composed of several additional and ...

Stéphane Laroche; Pierre Gauthier; Monique Tanguay; Simon Pellerin; Josée Morneau

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

237

A novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the area of ocean fisheries research, a new research interest is to use marine environment factors for fishery forecasting. This paper proposes a novel knowledge discovery model for fishery forecasting that uses the Indian Ocean big-eye tuna fishery ... Keywords: extension data mining, fishery forecasting, fuzzy rules, support vector machines

Hongchun Yuan; Ying Li; Ying Chen

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

An Improved System for Tropical Ocean Subsurface Temperature Analyses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study demonstrates techniques that lead to improved use of ocean thermal information and more useful and informative products for monitoring variability in the tropical oceans. The method is based on statistical interpolation and is ...

Neville R. Smith

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...

Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2010-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

243

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2011-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

245

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

An Observing System Experiment for Tropical Cyclone Targeting Techniques Using the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In 1997, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve the numerical guidance ...

Sim D. Aberson; Sharanya J. Majumdar; Carolyn A. Reynolds; Brian J. Etherton

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is ...

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Open cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system structure  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A generally mushroom-shaped, open cycle OTEC system and distilled water producer which has a skirt-conduit structure extending from the enlarged portion of the mushroom to the ocean. The enlarged part of the mushroom houses a toroidal casing flash evaporator which produces steam which expands through a vertical rotor turbine, partially situated in the center of the blossom portion and partially situated in the mushroom's stem portion. Upon expansion through the turbine, the motive steam enters a shell and tube condenser annularly disposed about the rotor axis and axially situated beneath the turbine in the stem portion. Relatively warm ocean water is circulated up through the radially outer skirt-conduit structure entering the evaporator through a radially outer portion thereof, flashing a portion thereof into motive steam, and draining the unflashed portion from the evaporator through a radially inner skirt-conduit structure. Relatively cold cooling water enters the annular condenser through the radially inner edge and travels radially outwardly into a channel situated along the radially outer edge of the condenser. The channel is also included in the radially inner skirt-conduit structure. The cooling water is segregated from the potable, motive steam condensate which can be used for human consumption or other processes requiring high purity water. The expansion energy of the motive steam is partially converted into rotational mechanical energy of the turbine rotor when the steam is expanded through the shaft attached blades. Such mechanical energy drives a generator also included in the enlarged mushroom portion for producing electrical energy. Such power generation equipment arrangement provides a compact power system from which additional benefits may be obtained by fabricating the enclosing equipment, housings and component casings from low density materials, such as prestressed concrete, to permit those casings and housings to also function as a floating support vessel.

Wittig, J. Michael (West Goshen, PA)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part II: Model Error in Coarse-Grained Markov Models with Application to Ocean-Circulation Regimes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for detecting false predictive ...

Dimitrios Giannakis; Andrew J. Majda

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Ocean Tidal Dissipation and its Role in Solar System Satellite Evolution  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Magma ocean dissipation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .of the ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tidally-driven flow in global satellite oceans

Chen, Erinna

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

A Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System of SST Modulation for the Indian Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The net heat flux into the northern Indian Ocean is between 75 and 100 W m?2 during the boreal spring and early summer but only 10–20 W m?2 in the western Pacific during the entire year. The differences in the net surface heat fluxes arise from ...

Johannes Loschnigg; Peter J. Webster

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Customization of the EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) and User Support for the California Independent System Operator (CA-ISO)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and operation. In the past, forecasting was achieved by extrapolating existing load data combined with other influencing factors. This method is no longer accurate enough. The Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) is a tool for the quick and accurate prediction of hourly loads that provides the level of accuracy required by today's complex and competitive power markets. This report describes all the deliverables for t...

2002-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

257

Precipitation and Kinematic Structure of an Oceanic Mesoscale Convective System. Part I: Convective Line Structure  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The precipitation, thermodynamic, and kinematic structure of an oceanic mesoscale convective system is studied using airborne Doppler and in situ (flight-level) data collected by the NOAA P-3 aircraft. The system, a well-organized, stationary, ...

David P. Jorgensen; Margaret A. LeMone; Ben Jong-Dao Jou

1991-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Application of partial mutual information variable selection to ANN forecasting of water quality in water distribution systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent trends in the management of water supply have increased the need for modelling techniques that can provide reliable, efficient, and accurate representation of the complex, non-linear dynamics of water quality within water distribution systems. ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Chlorine disinfection, Chlorine residual forecasting, Input variable selection, Partial mutual information, Water quality modelling

Robert J. May; Graeme C. Dandy; Holger R. Maier; John B. Nixon

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part II: Case Study of a Sydney 7-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is examined by means of a case study of a 7-day photochemical smog event in the Sydney region. This was the worst smog event for the 2000/ 01 oxidant season, and, because of ...

G. D. Hess; K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Long-Term Oscillations in the Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean System and El Niño Phenomenon  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The nature of slow oscillations in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system in equatorial regions is investigated with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model in which surface wind stress and surface latent heat flux and other heat inputs associated with SST ...

H. L. Kuo

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

265

Using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system to forecast automobile sales  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Improving the sales forecasting accuracy has become a primary concern for automobile industry. Here, we only focus on new automobile sales in Taiwan. The data set is based on monthly sales, and the data can be divided into three styles of automobile ... Keywords: ANFIS, ANN, ARIMA, Demand forecasting

Fu-Kwun Wang; Ku-Kuang Chang; Chih-Wei Tzeng

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,

George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Estimates of Analysis and Forecast Error Variances Derived from the Adjoint of 4D-Var  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is presented in which the adjoint of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4D-Var) was used to compute the expected analysis and forecast error variances of linear functions of the ocean state vector. The power and ...

Andrew M. Moore; Hernan G. Arango; Gregoire Broquet

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

COAMPS Real-Time Dust Storm Forecasting during Operation Iraqi Freedom  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Dust storms are a significant weather phenomenon in the Iraq region in winter and spring. Real-time dust forecasting using the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Ocean–Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) with an in-line dust aerosol model was ...

Ming Liu; Douglas L. Westphal; Annette L. Walker; Teddy R. Holt; Kim A. Richardson; Steven D. Miller

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Short-Term Basin-Scale Streamflow Forecasting Using Large-Scale Coupled Atmospheric–Oceanic Circulation and Local Outgoing Longwave Radiation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper investigates the use of large-scale circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation), local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and previous streamflow information for short-term (weekly) ...

Rajib Maity; S. S. Kashid

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Skill in Prediction of Explosive Cyclogenesis over the Western North Atlantic Ocean, 1987/88: A Forecast Checklist and NMC Dynamical Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses and predictions of explosive cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the 1987/88 cold season were compared. The analyses were the manual and automated series produced at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The ...

Frederick Sanders; Eugene P. Auciello

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

A System for Remote Measurements of the Wind Stress over the Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The DISSTRESS system for remote measurements of the surface wind stress over the ocean from ships and buoys is described. It is fully digital, utilizing the inertial dissipation technique. Parallel processing allows anemometer data to be filtered ...

W. G. Large; J. A. Businger

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Passive Microwave Observations of the Stratiform Regions of Two Tropical Oceanic Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-resolution passive microwave observations within the stratiform regions of two different tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems are investigated in detail. The observations were obtained from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation ...

Gary McGaughey; Edward J. Zipser

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for an Optimal Moored Instrument Array in the Tropical Indian Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are used to study the design of a proposed array of instrumented moorings in the Indian Ocean (IO) outlined by the IO panel of the Climate Variability and Predictability (...

Joaquim Ballabrera-Poy; Eric Hackert; Raghu Murtugudde; Antonio J. Busalacchi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

278

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

279

Combined hydraulic and black-box models for flood forecasting in urban drainage systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Rapid urbanization and its implications for both water quality issues and floods have increased the need for modeling of urban drainage systems. Many operational models are based on deterministic solutions of hydraulic equations. Improving such models by adding a “black-box ” component to deal with any systematic structure in the residuals is proposed. In this study, a conventional deterministic stormwater drainage network model is first developed for a rapidly developing catchment using the HYDROWORKS ?now called Infoworks ? package, from Wallingford Software in the United Kingdom. However, despite the generally satisfactory results, the HYDROWORKS model tended to underestimate the flow volume. In this paper, a black-box or “systems ” model is fitted to the hydraulic urban drainage model in order to improve its overall efficiency. A study was conducted of suitable black-box models, which included the nonlinear artificial neural network model ?ANN?, and the linear time series models of Box and Jenkins in 1976. They were added to either the output ?in simulation mode ? or, in updating mode, to the residuals ?i.e., difference between modeled and measured output ? of the deterministic hydraulic model. The updating procedure provided a considerable improvement in the overall model efficiency for different lead-time forecasting. In simulation mode, however, only the nonlinear ANN model gave better performance in calibration, and a slight improvement in validation.

Michael Bruen; M. Asce; Jianqing Yang

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm complex. The ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport ...

Bjarne Hansen

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a way of correcting underdispersion in ensemble forecasts. BMA is a standard statistical procedure for combining predictive distributions from different sources. The output of BMA is a ...

Laurence J. Wilson; Stephane Beauregard; Adrian E. Raftery; Richard Verret

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect

Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction ...

Roberto Buizza

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

A Revised Hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from Field Site to Terrestrial Water Storage and Impact in the Integrated Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (TESSEL) is used operationally in the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) for describing the evolution of soil, vegetation, and snow over the continents at diverse spatial resolutions. A revised ...

Gianpaolo Balsamo; Anton Beljaars; Klaus Scipal; Pedro Viterbo; Bart van den Hurk; Martin Hirschi; Alan K. Betts

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...

Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Low-Frequency Variability in the Arctic Atmosphere, Sea Ice, and Upper-Ocean Climate System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The low-frequency natural variability of the arctic climate system is modeled using a single-column, energy balance model of the atmosphere. sea ice, and upper-ocean system. Variability in the system is induced by forcing with realistic, random ...

C. M. Bitz; D. S. Battisti; R. E. Moritz; J. A. Beesley

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean [EVS Event]  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean August 23, 2013 Speaker: Bradley Nicholas Guy National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Date: Friday, August 23, 2013 Time: 11:00 a.m. Location: Argonne National Laboratory TCS Building 240 Room 4301 In the DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation) field experiment, a large number of measurement platforms were deployed to study environmental and convective cloud system characteristics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiation region in the Indian Ocean. A mobile platform, the NOAA P-3 instrumented aircraft, sampled intense convective cloud systems, along with the surrounding environment. This presentation will explore the characteristics of mesoscale convective

290

REQUEST BY OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE WAIVER OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN RIGHTS IN SUBJECT  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE WAIVER OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN RIGHTS IN SUBJECT INVENTIONS MADE IN THE COURSE OF OR UNDER DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CONTRACT NO. DE-AC21-93MC30178; DOE WAIVER DOCKET W(A)-95-040 [ORO-613] Oceaneering Space Systems (OSS) has made a timely request for an advance waiver to worldwide rights in Subject Inventions made in the course of or under Phase II of Department of Energy (DOE) Contract No. DE-AC21-93MC30178. The scope of the work calls for the development of a full scale, certified, pre-production Advanced Worker Protection System (AWPS) and a site demonstration. The work is sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology. The negotiated value of Phase II of the contract is $1,971,649, with OSS cost sharing $502,276

291

Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Element of System Northeast Ocean Data Portal  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Element of System Northeast Ocean Data Portal Website(s) http://northeastoceandata.org/ Mapping application http://www.northeastoceanviewer.org/ Blog or discussion forum Point(s) of contact Daniel Martin, Nick Napoli Geographic area covered Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Data sources Federal, State Number of data sets 62 Available formats File downloads Web-enabled services http://northeastoceandata.org/data-catalog/web-mapping-services/ Type of server ArcGIS 10 Client Adobe Flex Database File-based Hosting Commercial with plans for Amazon Web Services Cloud Data sharing standards Interfaces supported Meta data catalogs Collaborations with other systems MarineCadastre.gov, MARCO Portal

292

Missing wind data forecasting with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In any region, to begin generating electricity from wind energy, it is necessary to determine the 1-year distribution characteristics of wind speed. For this aim, a wind observation station must be constructed and 1-year wind speed and direction data ... Keywords: ANFIS, Back-propagation, Forecasting, Missing data, Wind energy, Wind speed

Fatih O. Hocaoglu; Yusuf Oysal; Mehmet Kurban

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Study of Machine Round-Off response on Weather Forecasting Simulations Using High Performance Computing Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The weather forecasting model T80L18 is found to be sensitive to variations in the computing platform. The global spectral model simulation variation due to machine round off is examined using rounding mode analysis and the perturbation methods. The ...

S. Janakiraman; J. V. Ratnam; Akshara Kaginalkar

2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

A Weather Forecasting System using concept of Soft Computing: a new approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasting and warnings are the major services provided by the meteorological profession. Many government and private agencies are working on its behavior but still it is challenging and incomplete. We propose a new technique to construct the learning set of images

A. Sharma; U. Datta

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

300

The Joint Modes of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System Observed from 1967 to 1986  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two aspects of the principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis are used to study the large-scale modes of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. First, P0Ps can be considered as the normal modes of the system; one way of studying these normal ...

Jin-Song Xu

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

DRAFT The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System Peter J. Webster1, Christina that the Asian-Australasian monsoon system exhibits variability over a wide-range of space and time scales (3­5 years) and interdecadal. Despite this range of variability, the South Asian monsoon (at least

Webster, Peter J.

302

Real-time ocean surge warning system, meadowlands district of New Jersey  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Low-lying coastal, residential and industrial areas are of great concern to emergency managers because of their susceptibility to tidal flooding and sea level surge. Fairly accurate warnings of sea surges do exist, as does information about property ... Keywords: emergency management, emergency management system, flood, information dissemination, real-time ocean surge warnings, sensor network, sensor system, tide gates

Francisco Artigas; Soon Ae Chun; Yogi Sookhu

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Dynamical, Statistical–Dynamical, and Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of Australian Spring Season Rainfall  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of spring season rainfall in Australia and the ...

Eun-Pa Lim; Harry H. Hendon; David L. T. Anderson; Andrew Charles; Oscar Alves

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Upper ocean processes observed by underwater gliders in the California Current System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Chapter 5 Upper ocean thermohaline structure in thevariability in the upper ocean, J. Geophys. Res. , 105 (C7),Gill, A. E. (1982), Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics, Int. Geophys.

Todd, Robert E.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

309

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

310

Science DMZ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

historical weather forecasts with the same current version of NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Among the advantages associated with a long reforecast dataset is that...

311

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) power system development. Conceptual design  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The conceptual design of a power system for application to the OTEC 100-MWe Demonstration Plant is presented. System modeling, design, and performance are described in detail. Materials considerations, module assembly, and cost considerations are discussed. Appendices include: A) systems analysis, B) general arrangements, C) system equipment, D) ammonia system material considerations; E) ammonia cycle, F) auxiliary subsystems, G) DACS availability analysis, H) heat exchanger supporting data, I) rotating machinery, and J) platform influences. (WHK)

Not Available

1978-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

312

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS. VOL. 25. NO. I. FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," IEEE Trans. PWRS, vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996, pp. 397-402. [4Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1 , James H. Taylor2) is presented for the hourly load forecasting of the coming days. In this approach, 24 independent networks

Luh, Peter

314

New Ozone Measurement Systems for Autonomous Operation on Ocean Buoys and Towers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two autonomous ozone measurement systems for use on ocean buoys and towers have been built and are discussed herein. They are based on low-power atmospheric ozone sensors from Physical Sciences Inc. (PSI) and 2B Technologies. The PSI sensor ...

E. J. Hintsa; G. P. Allsup; C. F. Eck; D. S. Hosom; M. J. Purcell; A. A. Roberts; D. R. Scott; E. R. Sholkovitz; W. T. Rawlins; P. A. Mulhall; K. Lightner; W. W. McMillan; J. Song; M. J. Newchurch

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Sea Ice-Ocean-Oilspill Modeling System (SIOMS) for the Nearshore Beaufort and Chukchi Seas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Parameterization and Improvement (Phase II) Jia Wang Principal Investigator Co-principal Investigators: Kohei) for the Nearshore Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Parameterization and Improvement (Phase II) Jia Wang PrincipalSea Ice-Ocean-Oilspill Modeling System (SIOMS) for the Nearshore Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

316

Ocean thermal energy conversion power system development-I. Phase I. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The objective of the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Power System Development-I (PSD-I), Phase I, study was to develop conceptual and preliminary designs of closed-cycle ammonia power system modules for the 100-MW(e) OTEC Demonstration Plant, the 400-MW(e) Commercial Size Plant, and Heat Exchanger Test Articles representative of the full-size power system module design. Results are presented.

Not Available

1978-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

317

Vertical Mixing in the Ocean and Its Impact on the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System in the Eastern Tropical Pacific  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The zonal and meridional asymmetries in the eastern tropical Pacific (the eastern equatorial cold tongue and the northern intertropical convergence zone) are key aspects of the region that are strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere interactions. ...

Kelvin J. Richards; Shang-Ping Xie; Toru Miyama

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

SeaCycler: A Moored Open-Ocean Profiling System for the Upper Ocean in Extended Self-Contained Deployments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The upper ocean, including the biologically productive euphotic zone and the mixed layer, has great relevance for studies of physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem processes and their interaction. Observing this layer with a continuous presence, ...

Uwe Send; George Fowler; Greg Siddall; Brian Beanlands; Merle Pittman; Christoph Waldmann; Johannes Karstensen; Richard Lampitt

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

320

A Two-Season Impact Study of NOAA Polar-Orbiting Satellites in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Observing system experiments (OSEs) during two seasons are used to quantify the important contributions made to forecast quality from the use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) polar-orbiting satellites. The impact is ...

James A. Jung; Tom H. Zapotocny; John F. Le Marshall; Russ E. Treadon

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Validation of an EnKF System for OGCM Initialization Assimilating Temperature, Salinity, and Surface Height Measurements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a decade-long assimilation run with a 64-member OGCM ensemble in a global configuration. The assimilation system can be used to produce ocean initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. The ensemble is constructed with ...

Olwijn Leeuwenburgh

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

GPS–Cellular Drifter Technology for Coastal Ocean Observing Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A drifter for observing small spatial and temporal scales of motion in the coastal zone is presented. The drifter uses GPS to determine its position, and the Mobitex terrestrial cellular communications system to transmit the position data in near–...

J. Carter Ohlmann; Peter F. White; Andrew L. Sybrandy; P. Peter Niiler

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Effects of diurnal variation on a tropical coupling system: a 2-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere modeling study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The effects of diurnal variation on tropical atmospheric and oceanic variability are investigated with a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. The experiment with a time-invariant solar zenith angle is compared to the control ... Keywords: diurnal variation, tropical coupling system

Shouting Gao; Yushu Zhou

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Ocean energy systems. Quarterly report, July-September 1982  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This quarterly report summarizes work on the following tasks as of September 30, 1982: (1) OTEC pilot plant conceptual design review; (2) OTEC methanol; (3) financial and legal considerations in OTEC implementation; (4) GEOTEC resource exploration at Adak, Alaska, and Lualualei, Hawaii; (5) preliminary GEOTEC plant cost estimates; and (6) supervision of testing of pneumatic wave energy conversion system.

Not Available

1982-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

327

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

328

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

329

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

330

Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model deficiencies limit a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system’s ability to produce accurate predictions. In this paper, an approach for transforming the output of a forecast system into a revised forecast is presented; it is designed to ...

Randal D. Koster; Thomas L. Bell; Rolf H. Reichle; Max J. Suarez; Siegfried D. Schubert

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to aircraft flight operations. ...

Jerome L. Heffter; Barbara J. B. Stunder

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Effect of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Changes on Tropical Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system via oceanic and atmospheric processes. A suite of numerical simulations have been conducted and the results show that both oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes induced by AMOC changes can have a profound impact on tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) conditions, but their dominance varies in different parts of the tropical oceans. The oceanic process has a dominant control on SST and SSS response to AMOC changes in the South Tropical Atlantic, while the atmospheric teleconnection is mainly responsible for SST and SSS changes over the North Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the period of reduced AMOC. The finding has significant implication for the interpretation of the paleotemperature reconstructions over the southern Caribbean and the western Tropical Atlantic regions during the Younger Dryas. It suggests that the strong spatial inhomogeneity of the SST change revealed by the proxy records in these regions may be attributed to the competing oceanic and atmospheric processes that dominate the SST response. Similar mechanisms may also explain the reconstructed paleo-salinity change in the tropical Atlantic, which shows a basin-wide increase in SSS during the Younger Dryas, according to recent paleo climate studies. Finally, we show that atmospheric teleconnection induced by the surface cooling of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific in response to a weakened AMOC, is a leading physical mechanism that dictates the behavior of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to AMOC changes. However, depending on its origin, the atmospheric teleconnection can affect ENSO variability in different ways. The atmospheric process associated with the North Atlantic cooling tends to enhance El Nino occurrence with a deepened mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific, whereas the atmospheric process associated with the North Pacific cooling tends to produce more La Nina events with a reduced mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Preliminary analysis suggests that the change in ENSO characteristics is associated with the change in internal atmospheric variability caused by the surface cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Complex nature of the underlying dynamics concerning the effect of the AMOC on ENSO calls for further investigation into this problem.

Wan, Xiuquan

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Climate Fluctuations of Tropical Coupled Systems—The Role of Ocean Dynamics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The tropical oceans have long been recognized as the most important region for large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions, giving rise to coupled climate variations on several time scales. During the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade, ...

P. Chang; T. Yamagata; P. Schopf; S. K. Behera; J. Carton; W. S. Kessler; G. Meyers; T. Qu; F. Schott; S. Shetye; S.-P. Xie

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis of ocean climate variability. In the assimilation, a model forecast produced by an ocean general circulation model with an average resolution of 0.25° × 0.4° × 40 levels is ...

James A. Carton; Benjamin S. Giese

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Verification of a Mesoscale Data-Assimilation and Forecasting System for the Oklahoma City Area during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command have developed a multiscale, rapid-cycling, real-time, four-dimensional data-assimilation and forecasting system that has been in operational use at ...

Yubao Liu; Fei Chen; Thomas Warner; Jeffrey Basara

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA’s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period ...

Peitao Peng; Anthony G. Barnston; Arun Kumar

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205 The Use of Tracers as Diagnostics for Model Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

emissions of CFCs and SF6 are often related to the `electrical power grid distributions); tropospheric #12ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205/sinks and incomplete observational data sets. In addition, the importance of models' transport capabilities vis

338

Oceanic Cyclogenesis as Induced by a Mesoscale Convective System Moving Offshore. Part I: A 90-h Real-Data Simulation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent observations have revealed that some mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) could undergo multiple cycles of convective development and dissipation, and, under certain environments, they appeared to be responsible for (barotropic) oceanic or ...

Da-Lin Zhang; Ning Bao

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

A Zonally Averaged Ocean Model for the Thermohaline Circulation. Part II: Interocean Circulation in the Pacific-Atlantic Basin System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The zonally averaged, latitude-depth ocean model, developed in Part I, is extended to a two-basin system representing the Atlantic and Pacific. Steady states are calculated under two different surface boundary conditions to study a possible ...

Thomas F. Stocker; Daniel G. Wright

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Thermal Energy Conversion Conference. Ocean Systems Branch,Thermal Energy Conversion Conference. Ocean Systems Branch,thermal energy conversion, June 18, 1979. Ocean Systems

Sands, M. D.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ...

Huiling Yuan; Chungu Lu; John A. McGinley; Paul J. Schultz; Brian D. Jamison; Linda Wharton; Christopher J. Anderson

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Mixing by ocean eddies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mesoscale eddies mix and transport tracers such as heat and potential vorticity laterally in the ocean. While this transport plays an important role in the climate system, especially in the Southern Ocean, we lack a, ...

Abernathey, Ryan (Ryan Patrick)

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

347

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part I: Comparsion of Coarse- and Fine-Grid Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing, the authors employ the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique, developed originally for global and synoptic-scale ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

An Objective Comparison of Model Output Statistics and “Perfect Prog” Systems in Producing Numerical Weather Element Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The “perfect prog” (PP) and model output statistics (MOS) approaches were used to develop multiple linear regression equations to forecast probabilities of more than a trace of precipitation over 6-h periods, probabilities of precipitation ...

N. Brunet; R. Verret; N. Yacowar

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A novel hybrid AI system framework for crude oil price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a novel hybrid AI system framework is developed by means of a systematic integration of artificial neural networks (ANN) and rulebased expert system (RES) with web-based text mining (WTM) techniques. Within the hybrid AI system framework, ...

Shouyang Wang; Lean Yu; K. K. Lai

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Examining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research diagnosed a strong ...

Adam J. Clark; Jidong Gao; Patrick T. Marsh; Travis Smith; John S. Kain; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl’s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and ...

Ryan D. Torn; David Cook

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large-scale computa&onal models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large conditions). Forecast = best prediction given the present knowledge on the system. Projection = attempt functionalities) #12;Real time forecast for the H1N1pdm (2009) Key parameters

Cattuto, Ciro

353

A 2 Degree of Freedom Dynamical System for Interdecadal Oscillations of the Ocean–Atmosphere  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A four-box model of the ocean–atmosphere is constructed that exhibits self-sustained oscillations in the regime of decadal to interdecadal periods found in oceanic general circulation models under certain boundary conditions. The oscillations are ...

Alain Colin de Verdière; Thierry Huck

2000-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

355

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from the global positioning system (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression ...

Kristen Kehrer; Brian Graf; William P. Roeder

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Prev'air: An Operational Forecasting and Mapping System for Air Quality in Europe  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The current state of the art in three-dimensional chemistry-transport models allows them to be considered as mature and reliable enough to be combined with observations networks for implementing integrated air quality monitoring systems over ...

Laurence Rouil; Cécile Honoré; Bertrand Bessagnet; Laure Malherbe; Frédérik Meleux; Robert Vautard; Matthias Beekmann; Jean-Marie Flaud; Anne Dufour; Daniel Martin; Aline Peuch; Vincent-Henri Peuch; Christian Elichegaray; Nathalie Poisson; Laurent Menut

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Predictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System: Predictability of the Space of Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This paper investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local ...

Elizabeth Satterfield; Istvan Szunyogh

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Toward a Monitoring and Forecasting System For Atmospheric Composition: The GEMS Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a ...

A. Hollingsworth; R. J. Engelen; A. Benedetti; A. Dethof; J. Flemming; J. W. Kaiser; J-J. Morcrette; A. J. Simmons; C. Textor; O. Boucher; F. Chevallier; P. Rayner; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; C. Granier; V-H. Peuch; L. Rouil; M. G. Schultz

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...

T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been proposed, and to choose ...

Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Verification of Eta–RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Motivated by the success of ensemble forecasting at the medium range, the performance of a prototype short-range ensemble forecast system is examined. The ensemble dataset consists of 15 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. There ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Original paper: Development of a web-based disease forecasting system for strawberries  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Abstract: Florida produces about 16 million flats of strawberries every year, 15% of berries produced in the U.S. and virtually all the berries grown in the winter. Fungicides are applied on a weekly schedule to control Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit ... Keywords: Climate, Decision support system, Google Maps, Simulation modeling, Web-based interface

W. Pavan; C. W. Fraisse; N. A. Peres

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a ...

David H. Bromwich; Andrew J. Monaghan; Kevin W. Manning; Jordan G. Powers

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

A forecasting solution to the oil spill problem based on a hybrid intelligent system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Oil spills represent one of the most destructive environmental disasters. Predicting the possibility of finding oil slicks in a certain area after an oil spill can be critical in reducing environmental risks. The system presented here uses the Case-Based ... Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, Ensembles, Fusion algorithms, Oil spill, Radial Basis Function, Self organizing memory

Bruno Baruque; Emilio Corchado; Aitor Mata; Juan M. Corchado

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Ethernet-Based Computer Monitoring the Roof Abscission Layer With Experts Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

China is a coal accident-prone country. In all coal accidents, the most serious incident is roof accident. Roof accidents are account for over 45% of the total mortality in coal enterprises. Roof accident is threatening the lives and safety of miners, ... Keywords: the roof abscission layer, on-line monitoring, displacement, Ethernet, expert system

Yong Zhan; Xianghong Yan; Hongmei Zhu; Yang Song

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

A 10-yr Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices with NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A plateau vortex refers to a shallow meso-?-scale cyclonic vortex that is usually confined to near-surface levels (500 hPa) over the Tibetan Plateau during warm seasons. It is the major precipitation-producing weather system over the plateau, but ...

Xinyuan Feng; Changhai Liu; Roy Rasmussen; Guangzhou Fan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

A 10-Year Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices with NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A plateau vortex refers to a shallow meso-?-scale cyclonic vortex that is usually confined to near surface levels (500 hPa) over the Tibetan Plateau during warm seasons. It is the major precipitation-producing weather system over the plateau, but ...

Xinyuan Feng; Changhai Liu; Roy Rasmussen; Guangzhou Fan

369

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Volume 1: Executive Summary  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 megawatts (MW) in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 Renewable Portfolio Standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forecasti...

2006-11-14T23:59:59.000Z

370

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Volume 4: California Wind Generation Research Dataset (CARD)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 megawatts in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 percent renewable portfolio standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forec...

2006-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

371

The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Four aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Dropwindsonde ...

Sim D. Aberson

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean-state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model–observation ...

Anna Borovikov; Michele M. Rienecker; Christian L. Keppenne; Gregory C. Johnson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

An Operational System for Predicting Hurricane-Generated Wind Waves in the North Atlantic Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new wind–wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated waves during the Atlantic ...

Yung Y. Chao; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Hendrik L. Tolman

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion power system development. Phase I: preliminary design. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Westinghouse has completed the Preliminary Design Phase for the Power System Development of the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Demonstration Plant project. This study included the development of a preliminary design for a Modular Application scaled power system (10MWe) and Heat Exchanger Test Articles, both based on the concept developed in the Conceptual Design Phase. The results of this study were used to improve the baseline design of the 50MWe module for the Commercial Size Power System, which was recommended for the demonstration plant by the conceptual design study. The 50MWe module was selected since it has the lowest cost, and since its size convincingly demonstrates that future economically viable commercial plants, having reliable operation with credible anticipated costs, are possible. Additional optimization studies on the size of the power system plus hull continue to identify 50MWe as the preferred minimum cost configuration. This study was limited to a closed cycle ammonia power system module, using a seawater temperature difference of 40/sup 0/F, and a surface platform/ship reference hull. This volume describes system operation, a complete test program to verify mechanical reliability and thermal performance, fabrication and installation operations, and a cost analysis. (WHK)

Not Available

1978-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

375

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion power system development. Phase I: preliminary design. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Westinghouse has completed the Preliminary Desigh Phase for the Power System Development of the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Demonstration Plant project. This study included the development of a preliminary design for a Modular Application scaled power system (10MWe) and Heat Exchanger Test Articles, both based on the concept developed in the Conceptual Design Phase. The results of this study were used to improve the baseline design of the 50MWe module for the Commercial Size Power System, which was recommended for the demonstration plant by the conceptual design study. The 50MWe module was selected since it has the lowest cost, and since its size convincingly demonstrates that future economically viable commercial plants, having reliable operation with credible anticipated costs, are possible. Additional optimization studies on the size of the power system plus hull continue to identify 50MWe as the preferred minimum cost configuration. This study was limited to a closed cycle ammonia power system module, using a seawater temperature difference of 40/sup 0/F, and a surface platform/ship reference hull. This volume presents the preliminary design configuration and system optimization. (WHK)

Not Available

1978-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

376

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

377

Power system development: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). Preliminary design report: appendices, Part 2 (Final)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The objective of this project is the development of a preliminary design for a full-sized, closed cycle, ammonia power system module for the 100 MWe OTEC demonstration plant. In turn, this demonstration plant is to demonstrate, by 1984, the operation and performance of an Ocean Thermal Power Plant having sufficiently advanced heat exchanger design to project economic viability for commercial utilization in the late 1980's and beyond. Included in this power system development are the preliminary designs for a proof-of-concept pilot plant and test article heat exchangers which are scaled in such a manner as to support a logically sequential, relatively low-cost development of the full-scale power system module. The conceptual designs are presented for the demonstration plant power module, the proof-of-concept pilot plant, and for a pair of test article heat exchangers. Costs associated with the design, development, fabrication, checkout, delivery, installation, and operation are included. The accompanying design and producibilty studies on the full-scale power system module project the performance/economics for the commercial plant. This section of the report contains appendices on the electrical system, instrumentation and control, ammonia pump evaluation study, ammonia and nitrogen support subsystems, piping and support design calculations, and plant availability. (WHK)

None

1978-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

378

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) power system development. Preliminary design report, Appendices, Part 1 (Final)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The objective of this project is the development of a preliminary design for a full-sized, closed cycle, ammonia power system module for the 100 MWe OTEC demonstration plant. In turn, this demonstration plant is to demonstrate, by 1984, the operation and performance of an Ocean Thermal Power Plant having sufficiently advanced heat exchanger design to project economic viability for commercial utilization in the late 1980's and beyond. Included in this power system development are the preliminary designs for a proof-of-concept pilot plant and test article heat exchangers which are scaled in such a manner as to support a logically sequential, relatively low-cost development of the full-scale power system module. The conceptual designs are presented for the demonstration plant power module, the proof-of-concept pilot plant, and for a pair of test article heat exchangers. Costs associated with the design, development, fabrication, checkout, delivery, installation, and operation are included. The accompanying design and producibilty studies on the full-scale power system module project the performance/economics for the commercial plant. This section of the report contains appendices on the developed computer models, water system dynamic studies, miscellaneous performance analysis, materials and processes, detailed equipment lists, turbine design studies, tube cleaner design, ammonia leak detection, and heat exchanger design supporting data. (WHK)

Not Available

1978-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

379

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion power system development. Phase I. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report covers the conceptual and preliminary design of closed-cycle, ammonia, ocean thermal energy conversion power plants by Westinghouse Electric Corporation. Preliminary designs for evaporator and condenser test articles (0.13 MWe size) and a 10 MWe modular experiment power system are described. Conceptual designs for 50 MWe power systems, and 100 MWe power plants are also descirbed. Design and cost algorithms were developed, and an optimized power system design at the 50 MWe size was completed. This design was modeled very closely in the test articles and in the 10 MWe Modular Application. Major component and auxiliary system design, materials, biofouling, control response, availability, safety and cost aspects are developed with the greatest emphasis on the 10 MWe Modular Application Power System. It is concluded that all power plant subsystems are state-of-practice and require design verification only, rather than continued research. A complete test program, which verifies the mechanical reliability as well as thermal performance, is recommended and described.

Not Available

1978-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

380

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Assimilation of Standard and Targeted Observations within the Unstable Subspace of the Observation–Analysis–Forecast Cycle System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper it is shown that the flow-dependent instabilities that develop within an observation–analysis–forecast (OAF) cycle and that are responsible for the background error can be exploited in a very simple way to assimilate observations. ...

Anna Trevisan; Francesco Uboldi

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Near-Surface and Land Surface Forecast System of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution 2D near-surface and land surface model was developed to produce snow and temperature forecasts over the complex alpine region of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. The model is driven by downscaled ...

Natacha B. Bernier; Stéphane Bélair; Bernard Bilodeau; Linying Tong

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

A review of agent-based models for forecasting the deployment of distributed generation in energy systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Agent-based models are seeing increasing use in the study of distributed generation (DG) deployment. Researchers and decision makers involved in the implementation of DG have been lacking a concise overview of why they should consider using agent-based ... Keywords: agent-based modeling, consumer behavior, distributed generation, energy forecasting, product deployment

Jason G. Veneman; M. A. Oey; L. J. Kortmann; F. M. Brazier; L. J. de Vries

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

A sustained oscillation in a toy-model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in a channel with two stable flow patterns induced by topography. The wind-driven ocean double gyre circulation in a square basin (of half the channel length) is modeled by an equivalent barotropic formulation of the Veronis model with 21 components, which captures Rossby-wave dynamics and nonlinear decadal variability. When coupled, the atmosphere forces the ocean by wind-stress while, simultaneously, the ocean affects the atmosphere by thermal forcing in terms of a vorticity source. Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations show two stable flow patterns associated with the topographically induced atmospheric bimodality and a sustained oscillation due to interaction between atmospheric bimodality and oceanic Rossby dynamics. The oscillation is of inter-annua...

Bothe, Oliver

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

387

Ocean Acidification Impacts on Shellfish Workshop: Findings and Recommendations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The workshop to investigate ocean acidification impacts on Growers Association.   Ocean Acidification Impacts on Proceedings  Integrated Ocean Observing Systems  California 

Dickson, Andrew

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

389

Multiscale dynamics of atmospheric and oceanic variability in the climate system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of South Indian Ocean tropical cyclones by the Madden-JulianVariation of Summertime Tropical Cyclone Activity in thein the garden to tropical cyclones to mesoscale eddies in

Subramanian, Aneesh C.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

The Madden–Julian Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model: The Importance of Stratiform Heating  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the capability for simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in a series of atmosphere–ocean coupled and uncoupled simulations using NCEP operational general circulation models. The effect of air–sea coupling on the ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

EVALUATING THE LAND AND OCEAN COMPONENTS OF THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE IN THE CMIP5 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We assess the ability of 18 Earth System Models to simulate the land and ocean carbon cycle for the present climate. These models will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for climate ...

A. Anav; P. Friedlingstein; M. Kidston; L. Bopp; P. Ciais; P. Cox; C. Jones; M. Jung; R. Myneni; Z. Zhu

392

Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors assess the ability of 18 Earth system models to simulate the land and ocean carbon cycle for the present climate. These models will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for ...

A. Anav; P. Friedlingstein; M. Kidston; L. Bopp; P. Ciais; P. Cox; C. Jones; M. Jung; R. Myneni; Z. Zhu

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

--Congestion forecasting, price forecasting, wholesale power market, locational marginal price, load partitioning, convex for system planning.1 Many studies have focused on electricity price forecasting based on statistical tools distributed loads and DC-OPF system variable solutions was identified and applied to forecast congestion

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

394

Ocean Wave Energy-Driven Desalination Systems for Off-grid Coastal Communities in Developing Countries  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Resolute Marine Energy, Inc. (RME) is based in Boston, MA and is developing ocean wave energy converters (WECs) to benefit remote off-grid communities in developing nations. Our two WEC technologies are based on the heaving and surging motion of a buoy ... Keywords: ocean wave energy, renewable energy, desalination, water, coastal communities

Eshwan Ramudu

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

2011-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

397

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

398

Ocean General Circulation Models  

SciTech Connect

1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

399

Weather Forecasts by the WRF-ARW Model with the GSI Data Assimilation System in the Complex Terrain Areas of Southwest Asia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper will first describe the forecasting errors encountered from running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model; ARW) in the complex terrain of ...

J. Xu; S. Rugg; L. Byerle; Z. Liu

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

A Statistical Comparison of Methods for Determining Ocean Surface Winds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of various techniques which determine ocean surface winds using information from large-scale analyses and forecast models is discussed. The techniques evaluated are the geostrophic relation, a simple empirical law, National ...

W. H. Gemmill; T. W. Yu; D. M. Feit

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

On the Relationship between the Accuracy and Value of Forecasts in the Cost–Loss Ratio Situation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the relationship between the quality and value of imperfect forecasts. It is assumed that these forecasts are produced by a primitive probabilistic forecasting system and that the decision-making problem of concern is the cost-...

Allan H. Murphy; Martin Ehrendorfer

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Series of forecast experiments for two seasons investigate the impact of specifying realistic initial states of the land in conjunction with the observed states of the ocean and atmosphere while using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (...

Daniel A. Paolino; James L. Kinter III; Ben P. Kirtman; Dughong Min; David M. Straus

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

The Selection and Use of Dropwindsonde-Equipped Aircraft for Operational Forecasting Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article discusses the feasibility of using dropwindsonde-equipped aircraft to obtain meteorological observations over oceanic data- void areas for operational forecasting applications. Such in-situ meteorological observations would provide ...

Michael W. Douglas

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

The Dependence of Short-Range 500-mb Height Forecasts on the Initial Flow Regime  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast errors in the 500-mb geopotential height field over North America and adjacent ocean environs are calculated for the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM). The eight winters 1985/86-1992/93 are examined. Errors are ...

Laura A. Stoss; Steven L. Mullen

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Niño  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of stochastic intraseasonal variability on the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño was examined using a large ensemble of forecasts starting on 1 December 1996, produced using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere ...

Li Shi; Oscar Alves; Harry H. Hendon; Guomin Wang; David Anderson

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

NOAA'S Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Building Pathways for Better Science in Water Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program was established to meet our nation's need for more precise flash-flood forecast information. AHPS uses ...

John Mcenery; John Ingram; Qingyun Duan; Thomas Adams; Lee Anderson

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge forecasts were forced ...

Cristina Forbes; Richard A. Luettich Jr.; Craig A. Mattocks; Joannes J. Westerink

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a ...

Andrew Cottrill; Harry H. Hendon; Eun-Pa Lim; Sally Langford; Kay Shelton; Andrew Charles; David McClymont; David Jones; Yuriy Kuleshov

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Properties Affecting Wind Forecasting in Coastal Regions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Atmospheric boundary-layer properties and processes in gulf and coastal regions have special characteristics that are important in forecasting winds and ocean forcing. Accurate coastal-wind predictions require knowledge of local responses to a ...

Kenneth L. Davidson; Patricia J. Boyle; Peter S. Guest

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

A Real-Time Hurricane Surface Wind Forecasting Model: Formulation and Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane ...

Lian Xie; Shaowu Bao; Leonard J. Pietrafesa; Kristen Foley; Montserrat Fuentes

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Connecting Changing Ocean Circulation with Changing Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of changing ocean currents on climate change is evaluated by comparing an earth system model’s response to increased CO2 with and without an ocean circulation response. Inhibiting the ocean circulation response, by specifying a ...

Michael Winton; Stephen M. Griffies; Bonita L. Samuels; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Thomas L. Frölicher

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polguère

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

High-Resolution Passive Microwave Observations of Convective Systems over the Tropical Pacific Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents high-resolution passive microwave measurements obtained in the western Pacific warm pool region. These measurements represent the most comprehensive such observations of convection over the tropical oceans to date, and were ...

Gary McGaughey; Edward J. Zipser; Roy W. Spencer; Robbie E. Hood

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Human-centered systems analysis of mixed equipage in ocean air traffic control  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Technical capabilities for improved communication, surveillance, and navigation (CNS) over the oceans are currently available. However, all aircraft operators will not equip simultaneously because of the high costs required. ...

Major, Laura M. (Laura Mary), 1980-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

EPIC2001 and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System of the Tropical East Pacific  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Coupled global ocean–atmosphere models currently do a poor job of predicting conditions in the tropical east Pacific, and have a particularly hard time reproducing the annual cycle in this region. This poor performance is probably due to the ...

David J. Raymond; Steven K. Esbensen; Clayton Paulson; Michael Gregg; Christopher S. Bretherton; Walter A. Petersen; Robert Cifelli; Lynn K. Shay; Carter Ohlmann; Paquita Zuidema

2004-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

A Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Radiative Transfer System Using the Analytic Four-Stream Approximation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A coupled atmosphere–ocean radiative transfer model based on the analytic four-stream approximation has been developed. It is shown that this radiation model is computationally efficient and at the same time can achieve acceptable accuracy for ...

Wei-Liang Lee; K. N. Liou

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Structural Characteristics of Deep Convective Systems over Tropical Africa and the Atlantic Ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The structural properties of convective cloud clusters of tropical Africa and the Atlantic Ocean are studied using six summers of Meteosat satellite data in the atmospheric infrared window. A cluster at a given brightness temperature threshold is ...

L. A. Toledo Machado; M. Desbois; J-Ph Duvel

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da (INPE) #12;Talk Outline CPTEC/INPE Operational Forecast Systems (time scales) Modeling Forecast-Brazil Space Sector Workshop, São José dos Campos 26 - 27 August. 2010 CPTEC: Forecasting Modeling Scales Time

424

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from for producing 150 draft forecasts per day, which are then post-edited by forecasters before being released

Sripada, Yaji

425

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Combining artificial neural networks and statistics for stock-market forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have developed a stock-market forecasting system based on artificial neural networks. The system has been trained with the Standard & Poor 500 composite indexes of past twenty years. Meanwhile, the system produces the forecasts and adjusts ...

Shaun-Inn Wu; Ruey-Pyng Lu

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

428

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

429

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP FDP) aimed to demonstrate the utility and impact of modern nowcast systems. The project focused on the use of radar processing systems and ...

Peter T. May; Thomas D. Keenan; Rod Potts; James W. Wilson; Rob Webb; Andrew Treloar; Elly Spark; Sue Lawrence; Elizabeth Ebert; John Bally; Paul Joe

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

435

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

436

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In addition to structural measures, governmental authorities have set up flood forecasting systems to be used as early warning systems, to minimize the damage of future floods. These flood forecasting systems make use of hydrological and hydrodynamic ... Keywords: Non parametric approach, Operational flood forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting, Uncertainty estimation

N. Van Steenbergen; J. Ronsyn; P. Willems

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

The Joy of Stochastic Forecasting: An Overview of the Stochastic...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

especially when clustered with loads in locally controlled buildings scale microgrids. He also leads forecasting work using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and...

440

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 4, 2009 ... On-Line Economic Optimization of Energy Systems Using Weather Forecast Information. Victor M Zavala (vzavala ***at*** mcs.anl.gov)

442

Economic Impacts of Advanced Weather Forecasting on Energy ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 5, 2010 ... Abstract: We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the ...

443

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Assessing the Skill of Operational Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1984, W. Gray of Colorado State University and a team of researchers have been issuing seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the North Atlantic Ocean. Prior to this, little work had been done in the area of long-term tropical cyclone ...

Brian F. Owens; Christopher W. Landsea

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Quantitative Flood Forecasting on Small- and Medium-Sized Basins: A Probabilistic Approach for Operational Purposes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast of rainfall-driven floods is one of the main themes of analysis in hydrometeorology and a critical issue for civil protection systems. This work describes a complete hydrometeorological forecast system for small- and medium-sized ...

Francesco Silvestro; Nicola Rebora; Luca Ferraris

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Response of an Intense Oceanic Current System to Cross-Stream Cooling Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Shifts in location and strength of an intense oceanic flow such as the Gulf Stream to a cross-stream gradient in cooling are studied using two-dimensional numerical simulations. The gradient in cooling is imposed by removing more heat from the ...

David Adamec; Russell L. Elsberry

1985-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Meridional Energy Transport in the Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean System: Compensation and Partitioning  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The variability and compensation of the meridional energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean are examined with the state-of-the-art GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1), and the GFDL Intermediate Complexity Coupled Model (ICCM). On decadal ...

Riccardo Farneti; Geoffrey K. Vallis

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

452

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

453

Bias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some unexpected and striking ...

Yun Fan; Huug van den Dool

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Ocean Terracing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Artworks can improve humanity ability to apply macro-engineering principles which skirt or correct oceanographic problems impairing the economic usefulness of coastal land, the overhead airshed, and seawater temperature and salinity stability. A new form of Art, Ocean Art, is here proposed which centers on deliberate terracing of appropriate regions of our world ocean; a proposed example of macro-engineered useful Ocean Art is the technically possible 21-st Century terracing of the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Art is applicable worldwide to places that might be practically improved by its judicious employment. Such Ocean Art may constitute an entirely unique category of solutions to coastal disaster prevention planning.

Richard Cathcart; Alexander Bolonkin

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

455

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The regional single-model-based Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS to investigate the ...

Yong Wang; Simona Tascu; Florian Weidle; Karin Schmeisser

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

459

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

460

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

462

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Ocean thermal energy conversion power system development-I. Phase I. Preliminary design report. Volume 1. Final report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The results of a conceptual and preliminary design study of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) closed loop ammonia power system modules performed by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc. (LMSC) are presented. This design study is the second of 3 tasks in Phase I of the Power System Development-I Project. The Task 2 objectives were to develop: 1) conceptual designs for a 40 to 50-MW(e) closed cycle ammonia commercial plant size power module whose heat exchangers are immersed in seawater and whose ancillary equipments are in a shirt sleeve environment; preliminary designs for a modular application power system sized at 10-MW(e) whose design, construction and material selection is analogous to the 50 MW(e) module, except that titanium tubes are to be used in the heat exchangers; and 3) preliminary designs for heat exchanger test articles (evaporator and condenser) representative of the 50-MW(e) heat exchangers using aluminum alloy, suitable for seawater service, for testing on OTEC-1. The reference ocean platform was specified by DOE as a surface vessel with the heat exchanger immersed in seawater to a design depth of 0 to 20 ft measured from the top of the heat exchanger. For the 50-MW(e) module, the OTEC 400-MW(e) Plant Ship, defined in the Platform Configuration and Integration study, was used as the reference platform. System design, performance, and cost are presented. (WHK)

Not Available

1978-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

464

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone intensity forecast methods used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II: statistical – dynamical forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The development and performance of a statistical- dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecast model, which was developed for the United States of America’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is described. This model, called the Southern Hemisphere Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (SH STIPS), mirrors similar capabilities created for use in the western North Pacific and North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basins. The model is created by fitting an optimal combination of factors related to climatology and persistence, intensification potential, vertical wind shear, dynamic size/intensity forecasts and atmospheric stability. All of these factors except the climatology and persistence information are derived from global forecast model analyses and forecasts. In July 2005 the SH STIPS model began a real-time evaluation period. The forecasts from the SH STIPS model have outperformed the combined climatology and persistence based forecast and thus are skillful in independent testing since that time. Since October 2006, SH STIPS has been the primary member in an operational consensus forecast of tropical cyclone intensity change provided to the JTWC. Documentation

John A. Knaff; Charles R. Sampson

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

466

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Improving Global Model Precipitation Forecasts over India Using Downscaling and the FSU Superensemble. Part II: Seasonal Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study addresses seasonal forecasts of rains over India using the following components: high-resolution rain gauge–based rainfall data covering the years 1987–2001, rain-rate initialization, four global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, a ...

Arindam Chakraborty; T. N. Krishnamurti

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Sensitivity analysis, ocean state estimation and diagnostics in the California current  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

4.3 Physical Ocean Model Simulations . . . . . . . . . . .3 xv the California Estimating ocean states for Aprilusing the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) data

Song, Hajoon

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

GSI 3DVar-based Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single Resolution Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter-variational hybrid data assimilation system based on the grid point statistical interpolation (GSI) three dimensional variational (3DVar) system was developed. The performance of the system was investigated using the ...

Xuguang Wang; David Parrish; Daryl Kleist; Jeffrey Whitaker

474

An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive ...

R. Sharman; C. Tebaldi; G. Wiener; J. Wolff

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Summer Rainfall Forecast Spread in an Ensemble Initialized with Different Soil Moisture Analyses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble forecasting system initialized using varied soil moisture alone has been evaluated for rainfall forecasts of six warm season convective cases. Ten different soil moisture analyses were used as initial conditions in ...

Eric A. Aligo; William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model–based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate ...

Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Joshua K. Roundy; Ming Pan

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Warm Season: A USWRP Research and Development Strategy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is ...

J. Michael Fritsch; R. E. Carbone

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Impacts of Forecaster Involvement on Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution Nowcasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A forecaster-interactive capability was added to an automated convective storm nowcasting system [Auto-Nowcaster (ANC)] to allow forecasters to enhance the performance of 1-h nowcasts of convective storm initiation and evolution produced every 6 ...

Rita D. Roberts; Amanda R. S. Anderson; Eric Nelson; Barbara G. Brown; James W. Wilson; Matthew Pocernich; Thomas Saxen

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble forecast system. The dataset consisted of 15-member reforecasts conducted for the 20-yr period 1982–2001, ...

Renate Hagedorn; Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

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481

High-Resolution GFS-Based MOS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts on a 4-km Grid  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed high-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS)-based model output statistics (MOS) 6- and 12-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) guidance on ...

Jerome P. Charba; Frederick G. Samplatsky

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

483

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison Luke, University of Stuttgart May 16, 2012 Abstract When faced with the task of forecasting a dynamic system intuition dictates that perfect knowledge of the system should in theory yield perfect forecasting, often

Steinwart, Ingo

484

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

Cañizares, Claudio A.

485

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

486

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

The 1981 ocean tomography experiment: Preliminary results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Preliminary results from a 1981 test ocean acoustic tomography experiment are presented. The system deployed in the southern North Atlantic

The Ocean Tomography Group; R. C. Spindel

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

An Examination of WRF 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation on Its Capability in Retrieving Unobserved Variables and Forecasting Precipitation through Observing System Simulation Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of 3DVAR radar data assimilation in terms of the retrievals of convective fields and their impact on subsequent quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). An assimilation methodology ...

Soichiro Sugimoto; N. Andrew Crook; Juanzhen Sun; Qingnong Xiao; Dale M. Barker

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

492

Three Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In real time since 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) has been running a system to predict the forecast skill of the medium-range forecasts produced by the NMC global spectral model. The predictors used are the agreement of an ...

Richard L. Wobus; Eugenia Kalnay

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Aspects of Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0–48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for 129 cases over the ...

F. Anthony Eckel; Clifford F. Mass

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

On Modeling and Forecasting Time Series of Smooth Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

/fertility rate curves (Hyndman and Ullah, 2007; Erbas et al., 2007). Other examples include electricity system the rates are unobservable; hence one needs to forecast future rate profiles based on historical call of telephone customer service centers, where forecasts of daily call arrival rate profiles are needed

Shen, Haipeng

495

Chaotic time series forecasting using locally quadratic fuzzy neural models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time series forecasting in highly nonlinear and chaotic systems is a challenging research area with a variety of applications in economics, environmental sciences and various fields of engineering. This paper presents a novel Locally Quadratic Fuzzy ... Keywords: chaotic time series, forecasting, locally quadratic neural fuzzy model

Mohammad J. Mahjoob; Majid Abdollahzade; Reza Zarringhalam; Ahmad Kalhor

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

A Comprehensive Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecasts over the Tropics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 15-member ensemble hindcasts performed with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS) for the period 1981–2005, as well as real-time forecasts for the period 2006–09, are assessed for seasonal prediction ...

K. P. Sooraj; H. Annamalai; Arun Kumar; Hui Wang

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Enhancements to ANNSTLF, EPRI's Short Term Load Forecaster  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Reliable hourly load forecasts are important to electric utilities, power marketers, energy service providers, and independent system operators. To meet this need, EPRI's Artificial Neural Net Short Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF), which is already implemented at more than thirty-five utilities, was recently enhanced for greater accuracy and user friendliness.

1997-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

498

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

499

Development and Validation of an Operational Search and Rescue Modeling System for the Yellow Sea and the East & South China Seas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational search and rescue (SAR) modeling system was developed to forecast the tracks of victims or debris from marine accidents in the marginal seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The system is directly linked to a real-time operational ...

Kyoung-Ho Cho; Yan Li; Hui Wang; Kwang-Soon Park; Jin-Yong Choi; Kwang-Il Shin; Jae-Il Kwon

500

Development and Implementation of Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Wave Modelsat NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief historical overview of numerical wind wave forecast modeling efforts at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is presented, followed by an in-depth discussion of the new operational National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...

Hendrik L. Tolman; Bhavani Balasubramaniyan; Lawrence D. Burroughs; Dmitry V. Chalikov; Yung Y. Chao; Hsuan S. Chen; Vera M. Gerald

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z