Powered by Deep Web Technologies
Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

2

Ocean Observing Ocean Observing Systems (OOS)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, national, and global scales. · Ocean Observing Systems serve: Fishing industry National security Coastal properties, such as salinity, temperature, and waves Satellite maps of sea surface temperature NATIONAL Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) 11 REGIONAL Systems, including: MANY LOCAL Systems

Schladow, S. Geoffrey

3

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

4

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

5

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

6

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

10

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

14

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

15

Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Recent evidence supports the premise that the subsurface ocean structure plays an important role in modulating air–sea fluxes during hurricane passage, which in turn, affects intensity change. Given the generally sparse in situ data, it has been ...

Lynn K. Shay; Jodi K. Brewster

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

17

Forecasting a large number of tropical cyclone intensities around Japan using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model in the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations were performed by ...

Kosuke Ito; Tohru Kuroda; Kazuo Saito; Akiyoshi Wada

18

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

20

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

22

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Turner Hunt Ocean Renewable (TRL 4 System) - THOR's Power Method...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Turner Hunt Ocean Renewable (TRL 4 System) - THOR's Power Method for Hydrokinetic Devices Turner Hunt Ocean Renewable (TRL 4 System) - THOR's Power Method for Hydrokinetic Devices...

24

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Süld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc POEMS Jump to: navigation, search Name Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS) Place San Diego, California Zip 92138 Sector Ocean, Renewable Energy Product POEMS was formed to involve the public in providing support for the development of ocean energy as a viable component of the renewable energy market. References Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS)[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS) is a company located in San Diego, California . References ↑ "Practical Ocean Energy Management Systems Inc (POEMS)" Retrieved from

29

An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The observing and forecasting conditions of coastal oceans in Alaska is technically challenging because of the mountainous terrain, the notoriously stormy seas, and a complex hydrological system of freshwater from rivers and glaciers. The Alaska Ocean ...

G. Carl Schoch; Yi Chao; Francois Colas; John Farrara; Molly McCammon; Peter Olsson; Gaurav Singhal

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

32

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

Breivik, Øyvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Wide Area Ocean Networks: Architecture and System Design Considerations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

static with power tether: these will either reside on the sea-bed or float on the ocean surface (surfaceWide Area Ocean Networks: Architecture and System Design Considerations Sumit Roy University 98105-6698 {payman,rouseff,warren}@apl.washington.edu ABSTRACT Wide area ocean networks for monitoring

Arabshahi, Payman

35

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.

LI De-shun; XU Kai-li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Ocean Power Technologies (TRL 7 8 System) - Reedsport PB150 Deployment...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Ocean Power Technologies (TRL 7 8 System) - Reedsport PB150 Deployment and Ocean Test Project Ocean Power Technologies (TRL 7 8 System) - Reedsport PB150 Deployment and Ocean Test...

39

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

40

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand…

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the public’s preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Weather Forecasting System Based on Satellite Imageries Using Neuro-fuzzy Techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have built an automated Satellite Images Forecasting System with Neuro-Fuzzy techniques. Firstly, Subtractive Clustering is applied on to a satellite image to extract the locations of the clouds. This is follo...

Chien-Wan Tham; Sion-Hui Tian; Liya Ding

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Static Forecasting of the Execution Times of Complexes of Interrelated Jobs in the Multiprocessor Computer Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Consideration was given to a procedure of approximate forecasting of the execution times of the complexes of interrelated jobs in the multiprocessor computer systems with the Erlangian execution time of each j...

N. N. Ivanov; V. V. Ignatushchenko; A. Yu. Mikhailov

44

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Lockheed Testing the Waters for Ocean Thermal Energy System ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

today, according to Lockheed Martin. The technology in play: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). Lockheed Martin is developing a design for an OTEC system that would produce...

46

Ocean energy conversion systems annual research report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Alternative power cycle concepts to the closed-cycle Rankine are evaluated and those that show potential for delivering power in a cost-effective and environmentally acceptable fashion are explored. Concepts are classified according to the ocean energy resource: thermal, waves, currents, and salinity gradient. Research projects have been funded and reported in each of these areas. The lift of seawater entrained in a vertical steam flow can provide potential energy for a conventional hydraulic turbine conversion system. Quantification of the process and assessment of potential costs must be completed to support concept evaluation. Exploratory development is being completed in thermoelectricity and 2-phase nozzles for other thermal concepts. Wave energy concepts are being evaluated by analysis and model testing with present emphasis on pneumatic turbines and wave focussing. Likewise, several conversion approaches to ocean current energy are being evaluated. The use of salinity resources requires further research in membranes or the development of membraneless processes. Using the thermal resource in a Claude cycle process as a power converter is promising, and a program of R and D and subsystem development has been initiated to provide confirmation of the preliminary conclusion.

Not Available

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Dynamic characteristics of ocean platform with mooring system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

characteristics of a semi-submersible system are simulated in the time domain based on linear theory. The semi-submersibleDynamic characteristics of ocean platform with mooring system Aichun Feng ­af2g10@soton

Sóbester, András

50

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Xie, Jinxing

51

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems Part during ocean data assimilation was explored when the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional. This is the third part of a three part series describing the ROMS 4D- Var systems. Ã? 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Costa, Daniel P.

52

Reflection Survey At Oceanic-Marine Systems (Singh, Et Al., 1999...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Oceanic-Marine Systems (Singh, Et Al., 1999) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Reflection Survey At Oceanic-Marine Systems (Singh,...

53

13.017 Design of Ocean Systems I, Spring 2003  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A two-semester subject sequence (of which this is the first half) that demonstrates the design process through its application to a working model-scale ocean system. Emphasis is on carrying out the design and implementation ...

Consi, Thomas R., 1956-

54

2.019 Design of Ocean Systems, Fall 2005  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This course is the completion of the cycle of designing, implementing and testing an ocean system, including hardware and software implementation, that begins with 2.017J. Design lectures are given in hydrodynamics, power ...

Chryssostomidis, Chryssostomos

55

The Inverse Ocean Modeling System. Part I: Implementation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system constructs and runs weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational data assimilation (W4DVAR) for any dynamical model and any observing array. The dynamics and the observing algorithms may be nonlinear but ...

A. F. Bennett; B. S. Chua; B. L. Pflaum; M. Erwig; Z. Fu; R. D. Loft; J. C. Muccino

2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4–5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced ...

Dustan M. Wheatley; Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system will implement a feature-oriented initialization scheme for both west coast ROMS and HOPS. The large Feature oriented Initialization Procedure development (ROMS and HOPS) Initialization Sensitivity runs

Gangopadhyay, Avijit

58

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

Bertossi, Leopoldo

59

Scaled modeling and simulation of ocean wave linear generator buoy systems.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate scaled modeling and simulation are critical to advancing ocean wave linear generator buoys. A 100th scaled model of ocean wave generator buoy systems is… (more)

Gore, Ganesh P.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System...

63

INTEGRATING THE OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM: MOBILE PLATFORMS Dean Roemmich(1)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

/AOML, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami FL 33149 USA, Email: rick.lumpkin@noaa.gov (12) Center for Ocean, including oxygen, chlorophyll-A, and particulate organic carbon, and coordination with shipboard and moored. The observing system infrastructure must evolve in parallel with the system's scope and complexity. Expanded

64

Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of the assimilation of ocean observations on reducing global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) 48-h forecast errors is presented. The assessment uses an adjoint-based data impact procedure that characterizes the forecast impact of ...

James A. Cummings; Ole Martin Smedstad

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

ENSO’s Impact on the Gap Wind Regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with ...

Michael A. Alexander; Hyodae Seo; Shang Ping Xie; James D. Scott

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Dehlsen (TRL 5 6 System) - Aquantis C-Plane Ocean Current Turbine...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Dehlsen (TRL 5 6 System) - Aquantis C-Plane Ocean Current Turbine Project Dehlsen (TRL 5 6 System) - Aquantis C-Plane Ocean Current Turbine Project Dehlsen (TRL 5 6 System) -...

67

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems Part Article history: Available online xxxx a b s t r a c t The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4 of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In par- ticular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D

Costa, Daniel P.

68

Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80 m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to ...

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

69

Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System)- TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project

70

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate pickups. This work describes an artificial intelligence method to aid the operator in taking decisions during system restoration by estimating residential load behaviour parameters such as overload in buses and the necessary time to recover steady-state power consumption. This method uses a fuzzy rule-based system to forecast the residential load, obtaining correct estimates with low computational cost. Test results using actual substation data are presented.

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

A rapid response nowcast/forecast system using multiply nested ocean models and distributed data systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Sandro Carnield a GKSS Research Center, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502: +49 4152 87 1525. E-mail address: onken@gkss.de (R. Onken). 1 Previous affiliation: SACLANT Undersea

Robinson, Allan R.

74

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

75

BBO-based small autonomous hybrid power system optimization incorporating wind speed and solar radiation forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Rising carbon emission or carbon footprint imposes grave concern over the earth?s climatic condition, as it results in increasing average global temperature. Renewable energy sources seem to be the favorable solution in this regard. It can reduce the overall energy consumption rate globally. However, the renewable sources are intermittent in nature with very high initial installation price. Off-grid Small Autonomous Hybrid Power Systems (SAHPS) are good alternative for generating electricity locally in remote areas, where the transmission and distribution of electrical energy generated from conventional sources are otherwise complex, difficult and costly. In optimizing SAHPS, weather data over past several years are generally the main input, which include wind speed and solar radiation. The weather resources used in this optimization process have unsystematic variations based on the atmospheric and seasonal phenomenon and it also varies from year to year. While using past data in the analysis of SAHPS performance, it was assumed that the same pattern will be followed in the next year, which in reality is very unlikely to happen. In this paper, we use BBO optimization algorithm for SAHPS optimal component sizing by minimizing the cost of energy. We have also analysed the effect of using forecast weather data instead of past data on the SAHPS performance. ANNs, which are trained with back-propagation training algorithm, are used for wind speed and solar radiation forecasting. A case study was used for demonstrating the performance of BBO optimization algorithm along with forecasting effects. The simulation results clearly showed the advantages of utilizing wind speed and solar radiation forecasting in a SAHPS optimization problem.

R.A. Gupta; Rajesh Kumar; Ajay Kumar Bansal

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Wing Wave: Feasible, Alternative, Renewable, Electrical Energy Producing Ocean Floor System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wing Wave: Feasible, Alternative, Renewable, Electrical Energy Producing Ocean Floor System Mark, alternative energy system to convert the circular motion of ocean waves as they propagate through the sea and feasible alternative, renewable, electrical energy producing subsea system. Index Terms--ocean energy, wave

Wood, Stephen L.

77

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

78

Real time assimilation of HF radar currents into a coastal ocean model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A real time assimilation and forecasting system for coastal currents is presented. The purpose of the system is to deliver current analyses and forecasts based on assimilation of high frequency radar surface current measurements. The local Vessel Traffic Service monitoring the ship traffic to two oil terminals on the coast of Norway received the analyses and forecasts in real time. A new assimilation method based on optimal interpolation is presented where spatial covariances derived from an ocean model are used instead of simplified mathematical formulations. An array of high frequency radar antennae provide the current measurements. A suite of nested ocean models comprise the model system. The observing system is found to yield good analyses and short range forecasts that are significantly improved compared to a model twin without assimilation. The system is fast; analysis and six hour forecasts are ready at the Vessel Traffic Service 45 minutes after acquisition of radar measurements.

Breivik, Øyvind; 10.1016/S0924-7963(01)00002-1

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

A power analysis and data acquisition system for ocean wave energy device testing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the testing of ocean wave energy devices, the demand for a portable and robust data acquisition and electrical loading system has become apparent. This paper investigates the development of a 30 kW inclusive system combining loading capabilities, real-time power analysis, and data acquisition for the testing of deployed ocean wave energy devices. Hardware results for ocean testing are included.

Ean Amon; Ted K.A. Brekken; Annette von Jouanne

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Variability, interaction and change in the atmosphere–ocean–ecology system of the Western Indian Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...all. In a symposium on the Indian Ocean over 30 years ago, David...sea level? Why do most modern Indian Ocean reefs only thinly veneer...survival over long time-scales) point to the importance of long-term...regeneration. In the Western Indian Ocean, studies are in place...

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and in situ observations, for NWP, ocean forecasting, ecosystem applications, and climate research. BY C forecasting, military and defence operations, validating or forcing ocean and atmospheric models, ecosystem11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment

Merchant, Chris

84

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

85

Use of a Free Ocean CO2 Enrichment (FOCE) System to Evaluate the Effects of Ocean Acidification on the Foraging Behavior of a Deep-Sea Urchin  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Use of a Free Ocean CO2 Enrichment (FOCE) System to Evaluate the Effects of Ocean Acidification on the Foraging Behavior of a Deep-Sea Urchin ... This cabled observatory system provides power and Ethernet communications from the MARS node to the shore. ... Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is altering the seawater chem. of the world's oceans with consequences for marine biota. ...

James P. Barry; Chris Lovera; Kurt R. Buck; Edward T. Peltzer; Josi R. Taylor; Peter Walz; Patrick J. Whaling; Peter G. Brewer

2014-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

86

Predictability of the Barents Sea ice in early winter: Remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the North Atlantic  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November–December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR)...

Takuya Nakanowatari; Kazutoshi Sato; Jun Inoue

87

Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- eral days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations Erin B. Munsell1 University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF

88

Mesoscale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in boundary current systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

response of the ocean eddies . The power spectrum of thethe ocean. As such, the larger energy in the power spectrumocean eddies. On the other hand, Smoothed ROMS has higher power

Putrasahan, Dian Ariyani

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Ocean Power Technologies (TRL 5 6 System) - PB500, 500 kW Utility...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

technologiesinchart.ppt More Documents & Publications Advanced, High Power, Next Scale, Wave Energy Conversion Device Ocean Power Technologies (TRL 7 8 System) - Reedsport PB150...

90

1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of historical distribution load data [2]. The increasinglypopular, accurate, and affordable Geographic Informahon Systems (GIS) technology provides an excellent data base platform for spatial load forecasting on collecting relevant geographic data. Thus spatial load forecasting becomes even more attractive than before

Chow, Mo-Yuen

91

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

94

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

95

A new adaptive fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption forecasting with hike in prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Large increase or hike in energy prices has proven to impact electricity consumption in a way which cannot be drawn ... (FIS) to estimate and forecast long-term electricity consumption when prices experience larg...

S. M. Sajadi; S. M. Asadzadeh; V. Majazi Dalfard…

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean William S. D. Wilcock School...of earthquakes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, a region of high-amplitude...interaction|forecasting|prediction|Pacific Ocean| Introduction For more than a......

William S. D. Wilcock

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

The fate of Earth's ocean Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 5(4), 569575 (2001) EGS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The fate of Earth's ocean 569 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 5(4), 569­575 (2001) © EGS The fate of Earth's ocean Christine Bounama, Siegfried Franck and Werner von Bloh Potsdam Institute@pik-potsdam.de Abstract Questions of how water arrived on the Earth's surface, how much water is contained in the Earth

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

99

C h a p t e r Toward a Global Ocean System for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The technologies explained here involve a variety of optical sensors and systems and ocean observing platforms data ob- tained from state-of-the-art and emerging optical sensors and oceanographic platforms and stratification of the upper ocean are driven by the penetration of solar radiation. Absorption and scattering

Chang, Grace C.

100

Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions in the Emergence of Complexity in Simple Chemical Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions in the Emergence of Complexity in Simple Chemical Systems ... In this Account, we examine how water–air interfaces, namely, the surfaces of lakes, oceans, and atmospheric aerosols on ancient Earth, facilitated the emergence of complex structures necessary for life. ... Aerosols are liquid or solid suspensions in air with a broad, power law size distribution. ...

Elizabeth C. Griffith; Adrian F. Tuck; Veronica Vaida

2012-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

102

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

103

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

104

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

2.019 Design of Ocean Systems I (13.017), Spring 2002  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A two-semester subject sequence (of which this is the first half) that demonstrates the design process through its application to a working model-scale ocean system. Emphasis is on carrying out the design and implementation ...

Consi, Thomas R., 1956-

106

The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes ...

Andrea Alessandri; Andrea Borrelli; Simona Masina; Annalisa Cherchi; Silvio Gualdi; Antonio Navarra; Pierluigi Di Pietro; Andrea F. Carril

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Study on 10 kVDC powered junction box for a cabled ocean observatory system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A cabled ocean observatory system that can provide abundant power and broad bandwidth communication for undersea instruments ... current (kVDC) with up to 10 kW power, along with 1 Gigabit/sec Ethernet communicat...

Yan-hu Chen ???; Can-jun Yang ???; De-jun Li ???; Bo Jin ? ?…

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Oceanic control of the sea ice edge and multiple equilibria in the climate system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

I study fundamental mechanisms of atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction. Hierarchies of idealized models are invoked to argue that multiple equilibria and abrupt change are robust features of the climate system. The main ...

Rose, Brian E. J. (Brian Edward James)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

E-Print Network 3.0 - atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

sphere-sea-ice-ocean... .01.015 12;are included within the latest generation of Earth System Models in order to allow more direct... for Space Studies and Center for Climate...

110

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

111

Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A battery storage dispatch strategy that optimizes demand charge reduction in real-time was developed and the discharge of battery storage devices in a grid-connected, combined photovoltaic-battery storage system (PV+ system) was simulated for a summer month, July 2012, and a winter month, November 2012, in an operational environment. The problem is formulated as a linear programming (LP; or linear optimization) routine and daily minimization of peak non-coincident demand is sought to evaluate the robustness, reliability, and consistency of the battery dispatch algorithm. The LP routine leverages solar power and load forecasts to establish a load demand target (i.e., a minimum threshold to which demand can be reduced using a photovoltaic (PV) array and battery array) that is adjusted throughout the day in response to forecast error. The LP routine perfectly minimizes demand charge but forecasts errors necessitate adjustments to the perfect dispatch schedule. The PV+ system consistently reduced non-coincident demand on a metered load that has an elevated diurnal (i.e., daytime) peak. The average reduction in peak demand on weekdays (days that contain the elevated load peak) was 25.6% in July and 20.5% in November. By itself, the PV array (excluding the battery array) reduced the peak demand on average 19.6% in July and 11.4% in November. PV alone cannot perfectly mitigate load spikes due to inherent variability; the inclusion of a storage device reduced the peak demand a further 6.0% in July and 9.3% in November. Circumstances affecting algorithm robustness and peak reduction reliability are discussed.

R. Hanna; J. Kleissl; A. Nottrott; M. Ferry

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Evaluation of a low-cost and accurate ocean temperature logger on subsurface mooring systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Monitoring seawater temperature is important to understanding evolving ocean processes. To monitor internal waves or ocean mixing, a large number of temperature loggers are typically mounted on subsurface mooring systems to obtain high-resolution temperature data at different water depths. In this study, we redesigned and evaluated a compact, low-cost, self-contained, high-resolution and high-accuracy ocean temperature logger, TC-1121. The newly designed TC-1121 loggers are smaller, more robust, and their sampling intervals can be automatically changed by indicated events. They have been widely used in many mooring systems to study internal wave and ocean mixing. The logger’s fundamental design, noise analysis, calibration, drift test, and a long-term sea trial are discussed in this paper.

Tian, Chuan; Deng, Zhiqun; Lu, Jun; Xu, Xiaoyang; Zhao, Wei; Xu, Ming

2014-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

113

Indian Ocean Warming During 1950–2005 Determined by Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model (FGOALS)  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Indian Ocean has exhibited a basin-wide warming ... effectively reproduced by version 2 of the grid-point and spectral versions of the Flexible Global ... K), respectively. The trend of the Indian Ocean avera...

Lu Dong; Tianjun Zhou

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

115

REQUEST BY OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE WAIVER OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN RIGHTS IN SUBJECT  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE OCEANEERING SPACE SYSTEMS FOR AN ADVANCE WAIVER OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN RIGHTS IN SUBJECT INVENTIONS MADE IN THE COURSE OF OR UNDER DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CONTRACT NO. DE-AC21-93MC30178; DOE WAIVER DOCKET W(A)-95-040 [ORO-613] Oceaneering Space Systems (OSS) has made a timely request for an advance waiver to worldwide rights in Subject Inventions made in the course of or under Phase II of Department of Energy (DOE) Contract No. DE-AC21-93MC30178. The scope of the work calls for the development of a full scale, certified, pre-production Advanced Worker Protection System (AWPS) and a site demonstration. The work is sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology. The negotiated value of Phase II of the contract is $1,971,649, with OSS cost sharing $502,276

116

Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean [EVS Event]  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean Aircraft Observations of Convective Systems in the Indian Ocean August 23, 2013 Speaker: Bradley Nicholas Guy National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Date: Friday, August 23, 2013 Time: 11:00 a.m. Location: Argonne National Laboratory TCS Building 240 Room 4301 In the DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation) field experiment, a large number of measurement platforms were deployed to study environmental and convective cloud system characteristics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiation region in the Indian Ocean. A mobile platform, the NOAA P-3 instrumented aircraft, sampled intense convective cloud systems, along with the surrounding environment. This presentation will explore the characteristics of mesoscale convective

117

Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Element of System Northeast Ocean Data Portal  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Matrix of Marine Data Management Systems Element of System Northeast Ocean Data Portal Website(s) http://northeastoceandata.org/ Mapping application http://www.northeastoceanviewer.org/ Blog or discussion forum Point(s) of contact Daniel Martin, Nick Napoli Geographic area covered Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Data sources Federal, State Number of data sets 62 Available formats File downloads Web-enabled services http://northeastoceandata.org/data-catalog/web-mapping-services/ Type of server ArcGIS 10 Client Adobe Flex Database File-based Hosting Commercial with plans for Amazon Web Services Cloud Data sharing standards Interfaces supported Meta data catalogs Collaborations with other systems MarineCadastre.gov, MARCO Portal

118

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

119

Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

120

Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

2010-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Physical response of mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems to local earthquakes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Heat flow (benthic) and hydrothermal processes; 3035 Marine Geology and Geophysics: Midocean ridge processes; 8135 Tectonophysics: Hydrothermal systems (8424). Received 23 January 2004; Revised 9 July 2004Physical response of mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems to local earthquakes William S. D

Wilcock, William

122

Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate complexity2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate system model of intermediate complexity. The parameterization is based on21 previously published global. Abstract19 We introduce a parameterization of ocean mixing by tropical cyclones (TCs) into20 an Earth

123

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions Brian Burke, NOAA Fisheries Brian.Burke@noaa.gov #12;· Review of ocean indicator work · Forecasting · Indicator gaps and the importance of mechanistic understanding · Plugging in to management #12;Haeseker et al. 2012 Ocean survival is low and variable #12;-10 -5

124

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

125

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

126

Dynamics and storage of brine in mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Dynamics and storage of brine in mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems Fabrice J. Fontaine1 substantially different from seawater as a result of phase separation and segregation of the resulting vapor below seawater for over a decade, which raises important questions concerning the fate of brines

Wilcock, William

127

IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 27, NO. 2, APRIL 2002 267 Power System Considerations for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 27, NO. 2, APRIL 2002 267 Power System Considerations are explored in this paper. First, design questions including whether the power delivery should be alternating for Undersea Observatories Bruce M. Howe, Harold Kirkham, Senior Member, IEEE, and Vatché Vorpérian Abstract--Power

Frandsen, Jannette B.

128

A demand side management strategy based on forecasting of residential renewable sources: A smart home system in Turkey  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The existing electricity systems have been substantially designed to allow only centralized power generation and unidirectional power flow. Therefore, the objective of improving the conventional power systems with the capabilities of decentralized generation and advanced control has conflicted with the present power system infrastructure and thus a profound change has necessitated in the current power grids. To that end, the concept of smart grid has been introduced at the last decades in order to accomplish the modernization of the power grid while incorporating various capabilities such as advanced metering, monitoring and self-healing to the systems. Among the various advanced components in smart grid structure, “smart home” is of vital importance due to its handling difficulties caused by the stochastic behaviors of inhabitants. However, limited studies concerning the implementation of smart homes have so far been reported in the literature. Motivated by this need, this paper investigates an experimental smart home with various renewable energy sources and storage systems in terms of several aspects such as in-home energy management, appliances control and power flow. Furthermore, the study represents one of the very first attempts to evaluate the contribution of power forecasting of renewable energy sources on the performance of smart home concepts.

A. Tascikaraoglu; A.R. Boynuegri; M. Uzunoglu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales control measures that could be taken for managing such episodes, European-scale air quality forecasting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

130

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

131

An observing system simulation for Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...components of the global carbon cycle in the CMIP5 Earth system models. J. Clim. 26, 6801-6843. ( doi:10.1175...2012 GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth system models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation...

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean Conditions, Salmon, and Climate Change John Ferguson1 NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries're finding - adult forecasts and climate change) #12;1. Past (for context) · The coastal pelagic ecosystem

134

Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept

Brest, Université de

135

Tropical Pacific nutrient dynamics in the modern and pleistocene ocean : insights from the nitrogen isotope system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past 3 M.Y. ,in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch,eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean, Mar. Chem. , 3, 271–

Rafter, Patrick Anthony

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Development of a direct current power system for a multi-node cabled ocean observatory system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Due to the shortage of suitable research methods for real-time and long-term observation of oceans, an innovative approach that can provide abundant power and wide bandwidth is being developed worldwide ... , we ...

Yan-hu Chen; Can-jun Yang; De-jun Li; Bo Jin…

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Study of the SMO Algorithm Applied in Power System Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A new methodology on the algorithm of sequential minimal optimization (SMO) for power system load was presented. In order to solve the ... (SVM) can not deal with large scale data, this paper introduces the modif...

Jingmin Wang; Kanzhang Wu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

140

A Novel and Scalable Spatio-Temporal Technique for Ocean Eddy Monitoring James H. Faghmous  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Swirls of ocean currents known as ocean eddies are a crucial component of the ocean's dynamics, understanding past and current eddy activity is crucial for forecasting future ocean dynamics and, subseA Novel and Scalable Spatio-Temporal Technique for Ocean Eddy Monitoring James H. Faghmous , Yashu

Minnesota, University of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An accurate product reliability prediction model can not only learn and track the product's reliability and operational performance, but also offer useful information for managers to take follow-up actions to improve the product' quality and cost. This ... Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Neural network model, Reliability prediction, Repairable system

L. Yi-Hui

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Chapter 4 The use of satellite surface wind data to improve weather analysis and forecasting at the NASA Data Assimilation Office  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

One important application of satellite surface wind observations is to improve the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. The first satellite to measure surface wind over the ocean was SeaSat in 1978. The initial impact of satellite surface wind data on weather analysis and forecasting was very small, but extensive research has been conducted since SeaSat to improve data accuracy and utilization of these data in atmospheric models. Satellite surface wind data are now used to detect intense storms over the ocean as well as to improve the overall representation of the wind field in numerical weather prediction models. Satellite wind data contribute to improved warnings for ships at sea and to more accurate global weather forecasts. Experiments with the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system indicate that the impact of satellite wind data measured by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Scatterometer was approximately twice as large as the impact of Special Sensor Microwave Imager or European Remote-sensing Satellite wind data. Locations of cyclones over the ocean were up to 500 km more accurate, and the useful forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics was extended by 24 hours.

R. Atlas; R.N. Hoffman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

145

Boron isotopes and B/Ca in benthic foraminifera: Proxies for the deep ocean carbonate system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate records of the state of the ocean carbonate system are critical for understanding past changes in pCO2, ocean acidification and climate. The chemical principles underlying the proxy of oceanic pH provided by the boron isotope ratio of foraminiferal carbonate are relatively well understood, but the proxy's reliability has been questioned. We present 76 new Multi-Collector Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) ?11B measurements on a range of benthic foraminifera from 23 late-Holocene samples from the Atlantic that reaffirm the utility of the ?11B-pH proxy. Our boron isotope measurements on ~ 10 benthic foraminifera tests typically yield a precision of ~ ± 0.25‰ at 2 s.d. (equivalent to ~ ± 0.03 pH units). ?11B values of epifaunal species are within analytical uncertainty of those predicted from a simple model assuming sole incorporation of B(OH)4? from seawater and no vital effects, using the independently determined fractionation factor of 1.0272 between 11B/10B of aqueous boron species. Infaunal foraminifera are consistent with this model, but record the combined effects of lower pore-water ?11B and pH. No influence of partial dissolution or shell size on ?11B is observed. We have also measured the B/Ca ratios of the same samples. For individual Cibicidoides species, B/Ca shows a good correlation with ?[CO32?], but the B/Ca of different co-occurring species morphotypes varies considerably. These effects are not seen in ?11B, which may therefore provide a more robust proxy of the ocean carbonate system. Whilst in theory ?11B and B/Ca can be combined to provide a quantitative reconstruction of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC), in practice this is precluded by propagated uncertainties. ?11B data give significant constraints on foraminifera calcification mechanisms, and seem most simply explained by incorporation of B(OH)4? into a HCO3? pool, which is then completely incorporated in foraminiferal CaCO3. Our demonstration of the predictable variation of ?11B with pH, across a wide range of species and locations, provides confidence in the application of MC-ICPMS measurements of foraminiferal ?11B to reconstruct past changes in the ocean carbonate system.

James W.B. Rae; Gavin L. Foster; Daniela N. Schmidt; Tim Elliott

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

E-Print Network 3.0 - arctic ocean freshwater Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

8. Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Freshwater Resources... and persistent ocean currents to feed energy ... Source: Wagner, Diane - Institute of Arctic Biology,...

147

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

148

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

526 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 26, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2001 Power Systems for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

526 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 26, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2001 Power Systems for Autonomous will be required. We first examine the issues related to power systems for the current and future generations Abstract--In this paper, we examine the issues involved in de- signing battery systems and power

Singh, Hanumant

151

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

152

Multiscale dynamics of atmospheric and oceanic variability in the climate system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Filtering) for Numerical Weather Prediction models wereNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in meteorology, caused ocean models

Subramanian, Aneesh C.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

High-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical ...

N. C. Privé; Yuanfu Xie; Steven Koch; Robert Atlas; Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ross N. Hoffman

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

156

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans. Introduction [2] Because water vapor is the most significant green- house gas and it exhibits a strong

Allan, Richard P.

160

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

162

Karhunen–Loeve representation of stochastic ocean waves  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...stochastic ocean wave elevations and wind speed profiles is finally addressed...and design of fixed and floating offshore wind turbines and for the forecasting...wind speeds and power output of wind farms. 2. Spectral decomposition of...

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors assess the ability of 18 Earth system models to simulate the land and ocean carbon cycle for the present climate. These models will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for ...

A. Anav; P. Friedlingstein; M. Kidston; L. Bopp; P. Ciais; P. Cox; C. Jones; M. Jung; R. Myneni; Z. Zhu

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Real-Time Deep-Ocean Tsunami Measuring, Monitoring, and Reporting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Background 2.1. Reaction to the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004. The 9.0 earthquake of December 26

165

Tropical Pacific nutrient dynamics in the modern and Pleistocene ocean| Insights from the nitrogen isotope system.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The tropical Pacific is a region where nutrient delivery, upper ocean dynamics, and global climate variability are tightly coupled. For example, the depth of… (more)

Rafter, Patrick Anthony

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Tropical Pacific nutrient dynamics in the modern and pleistocene ocean : insights from the nitrogen isotope system.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The tropical Pacific is a region where nutrient delivery, upper ocean dynamics, and global climate variability are tightly coupled. For example, the depth of the… (more)

Rafter, Patrick Anthony

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Joint Polar Satellite System Science Seminar Annual Digest  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

iii Joint Polar Satellite System Science Seminar Annual Digest 2013 #12;#12;Joint Polar Satellite Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Program Science, it is my pleasure to present this digest, which services, such as forecasting of severe weather events and environmental monitoring of land, ocean

169

Toward self-describing and workflow integrated Earth system models: A coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system application  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The complexity of Earth system models and their applications is increasing as a consequence of scientific advances, user demand, and the ongoing development of computing platforms, storage systems and distributed high-resolution observation networks. Multi-component Earth system models need to be redesigned to make interactions among model components and other applications external to the modeling system easier. To that end, the common component interfaces of Earth system models can be redesigned to increase interoperability between models and other applications such as various web services, data portals and science gateways. The models can be made self-describing so that the many configuration, build options and inputs of a simulation can be recorded. In this paper, we present a coupled modeling system that includes the proposed methodology to create self-describing models with common model component interfaces. The designed coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system is also integrated into a scientific workflow system to simplify routine modeling tasks and relationships between these tasks and to demonstrate the enhanced interoperability between different technologies and components. Later on, the work environment is tested using a realistic Earth system modeling application. As can be seen through this example, a layered design for collecting provenance and metadata has the added benefit of documenting a run in far greater detail than before. In this way, it facilitates exploration and understanding of simulations and leads to possible reproducibility. In addition to designing self-describing Earth system models, the regular modeling tasks are also simplified and automated by using a scientific workflow which provides meaningful abstractions for the model, computing environment and provenance/metadata collection mechanisms. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex model integration problem by using a framework and scientific workflow approach together. The reader may also note that the methods presented in this paper might be also generalized to other types of Earth system models, leading to improved ease of use and flexibility. The initial results also show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which is controlled by the designed workflow environment, is able to reproduce the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature when it is compared with the used CCSM3 initial and boundary conditions.

Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu; Nuzhet Dalfes; Sylvia Murphy; Cecelia DeLuca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

171

Oceans '88  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

These proceedings discuss the following papers: Solid waste disposal crisis; Plastics in Ocean; Continental shelf environmental research; Seafood technology advancements; Gulf of Mexico chemosynthetic petroleum seep communities; Water reuse on onshore mariculture and processing facilities; Oil and gas industry conflicts on the outer continental shelf; Cumulative environmental effects of the oil and gas leasing program; Oil and gas exploration; and Oil and gas resource management; Aids to navigation systems and equipment; and Surveillance experiments.

Not Available

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Ocean General Circulation Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

173

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

174

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

175

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Upper ocean processes observed by underwater gliders in the California Current System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

temperature and salinity gradients in the ocean mixed layer,across the background salinity gradient (e.g. , Figure 3.8)with largest mean salinity gradients below the thermocline.

Todd, Robert E.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Human-centered systems analysis of mixed equipage in ocean air traffic control  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technical capabilities for improved communication, surveillance, and navigation (CNS) over the oceans are currently available. However, all aircraft operators will not equip simultaneously because of the high costs required. ...

Major, Laura M. (Laura Mary), 1980-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Passive microwave observations of mesoscale convective systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents high resolution passive microwave measurements obtained in the western Pacific warm pool region. These measurements represent the first comprehensive observations of convection over the tropical oceans, and were obtained from...

McGaughey, Gary Rae

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

180

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

182

Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.

Duk Hee Lee; Sang Yong Park; Jong Chul Hong; Sang Jin Choi; Jong Wook Kim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

185

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

186

Tests of the impact of assimilation of surface data on ocean state estimates  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Tests of the impact of assimilation of surface data on ocean state estimates The coastal ocean. The relative impact of these data on the ocean state estimate has been evaluated. Accurate prediction of the front location is important to fisheries. Prediction and forecasting of surface currents would

Kurapov, Alexander

187

Ocean Circulation Lynne D Talley  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the topography, with low pressure in the center. Ocean currents transport heat from the tropics to the poles have gone to sea. As knowledge about ocean currents and capabilities to observe it below the surfaceOcean Circulation Lynne D Talley Volume 1, The Earth system: physical and chemical dimensions

Talley, Lynne D.

188

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

189

Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...ocean water circulates along the deep conveyor belt from the Atlantic to Indian and Pacific...CaCO 3 dissolved in a subsurface water parcel ({delta}CaCO 3 ) is estimated from changes...plotted {delta}CaCO 3 against water parcel ages derived from chlorofluorocarbon-11...

Richard A. Feely; Christopher L. Sabine; Kitack Lee; Will Berelson; Joanie Kleypas; Victoria J. Fabry; Frank J. Millero

2004-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

190

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

191

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

192

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

193

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

194

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

195

Optimized Operation Strategies for PV Storages Systems Yield Limitations, Optimized Battery Configuration and the Benefit of a Perfect Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Decreasing feed in tariffs and system prices combined with an increase of electricity tariffs supports the trend to install PV storage systems in private households. In the past years several investigations and field trials have shown, that these systems can increase the self consumption of PV-power and support the self sufficiency of private households [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. These systems also have a positive influence on the low-voltage grid [7], [8]. In recent years several investigations have been done to determine the optimal system configuration. They focus on the storage and PV generator size [9] or the applied storage technology [10]. In general, the mode of operation follows a simple regime: If PV production is larger than the actual consumption, PV power is stored. If the local consumption is higher than the actual PV production, stored power is used as long as available. Only slight modifications have been done, to map the price and efficiency effects of power electronics [11], [12]. Therefore, the results are limited to a single mode of operation. In this presentation, we derive a mathematical framework, which allows the calculation of the upper performance limit for a specific household and storage system, without any assumption on the operation strategy. We apply these analysis to a large set of German households and compare the upper performance limit for two different storage system designs: A system with relative short lifetime and small capacity on the one hand and another with a long lifetime and larger capacity

Armin U. Schmiegel; Andreas Kleine

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Chapter 16 - Ocean Engines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Publisher Summary Ocean thermal energy converters (OTECs) took advantage of the ocean acting as an immense collector and storer of solar radiation, thus delivering a steady flow of low-grade thermal energy. The ocean plays a similar role in relation to the wind energy, which is transformed into waves far steadier than the air currents that created them. Nevertheless, waves are neither steady nor concentrated enough to constitute a highly attractive energy source notwithstanding their large total power. There is little net horizontal motion of water in a surface ocean wave. A floating object drifts in the direction of the wave with about 1% of the wave velocity. A given elementary cell of water will move in a vertical circle, surging forward near the crest of the wave but receding by an almost equal amount at the trough. Any system in which the wave velocity depends on wavelength is called dispersive; hence the deep ocean is dispersive.

Aldo Vieira da Rosa

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

198

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities

199

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

200

Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for ...

Holger Pohlmann; Johann H. Jungclaus; Armin Köhl; Detlef Stammer; Jochem Marotzke

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Indian Ocean surface circulations and their connection to Indian Ocean dipole, identified from Ocean Surface Currents Analysis Real Time (OSCAR) data .  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Ocean surface circulation is an essential component of the world climate system. In this study, the Ocean Surface Currents Analysis - Real Time (OSCAR) data,… (more)

Rana, Haris Sarwar

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

203

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

206

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.18 page 104 BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the three- dimensional ocean state (temperature, salinity and pressure) and currents for the short BLUElink> Progress on operational ocean prediction for Australia Gary B. Brassington1 , Graham Warren1 are now on standby. At their disposal are analyses and forecasts from the Bureau's new operational ocean

Oke, Peter

207

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

209

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Ocean Acidification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ocean Acidification ... The first assignment I give my students in Environmental Modeling class is to calculate the mass of the oceans versus the mass of the atmosphere and the “living” soil. ... As a young chemical engineer in the early 1970s, I remember discussing the horrors of sulfur and particulate pollution from steel mills, smelters, and power plants. ...

Jerald L. Schnoor

2013-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

211

Toward a global observation and modeling system for studying the ecology of the open ocean using acoustics.  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The CLIOTOP (mid?trophic automatic acoustic sampling) project and the EurOcean consortium are organizing a workshop in May 2011 in Bergen Norway. The presentation will summarize the discussions and conclusions from the workshop. The workshop will deal with the technological and modeling issues related to the mass deployment of acoustic sensors in the open ocean environment. The technological challenges that will be addressed are plans and concepts for novel platforms carrying acoustics and complementary techniques energy supply and consumption and data transfer technology. Presently acoustics cannot provide measures of the species?specific biomass of all taxa and complementary technologies and ecosystemmodels need to be tailored to the available data. The modeling part of the workshop will focus mainly on the model?data links. It will cover the topics required to design a large scale observational system and to improve the combination of models and observations through data assimilation. The use of acoustic data in marine ecosystemmodels is indeed often done in a fairly naive way typically by assuming that acoustic measurements can provide acute and precise estimates of biomass. This leads to underestimated uncertainty and potentially biased results which need to be rigorously addressed in appropriate state?space frameworks.

Nils Olav Handegard; Geir Huse; Olivier Maury; Nils Christian Stenseth

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Regime for Marine Scientific Research in the Indian Ocean Region  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Structural leadership by power-based actors was seen as fundamental by ... IOGOOS members to the successful establishment of an Ocean Observing System in the Indian Ocean.

Manoj Gupta

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Ocean thermal energy conversion power system development. Final design report: PSD-I, Phase II  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The PSD-I program provides a heat exchanger sytem consisting of an evaporator, condenser and various ancillaries with ammonia used as a working fluid in a closed simulated Rankine cycle. It is to be installed on the Chepachet Research Vessel for test and evaluation of a number of OTEC concepts in a true ocean environment. It is one of several test articles to be tested. Primary design concerns include control of biofouling, corrosion and erosion of aluminum tubes, selection of materials, and the development of a basis for scale-up to large heat exchangers so as to ultimately demonstrate economic feasibility on a commercial scale. The PSD-I test article is devised to verify thermodynamic, environmental, and mechanical performance of basic design concepts. The detailed design, development, fabrication, checklist, delivery, installation support, and operation support for the Test Article Heat Exchangers are described. (WHK)

None

1980-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

216

Measuring ocean waves from space; Proceedings of the Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, Apr. 15-17, 1986  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Papers are presented on ocean-wave prediction; the quasi-universal form of the spectra of wind-generated gravity waves at different stages of their development; the limitations of the spectral measurements and observations of the group structure of surface waves; the effect of swell on the growth of wind wave; operational wave forecasting; ocean-wave models, and seakeeping using directional wave spectra. Consideration is given to microwave measurements of the ocean-wave directional spectra; SIR research; estimating wave energy spectra from SAR imagery, with the radar ocean-wave spectrometer, and SIR-B; the wave-measurement capabilities of the surface contour radar and the airborne oceanographic lidar; and SIR-B ocean-wave enhancement with fast-Fourier transform techniques. Topics discussed include wave-current interaction; the design and applicability of Spectrasat; the need for a global wave monitoring system; the age and source of ocean swell observed in Hurricane Josephine; and the use of satellite technology for insulin treatment.

Beal, R.C.

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of an open cycle ocean thermal difference power plant. M.S.screens for ocean thermal energy conversion power plants.1958. Ocean cooling water system for 800 MW power station.

Sands, M. D.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

222

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

224

Effects of Localized Energy Extraction in an Idealized, Energetically Complete Numerical Model of an Ocean-Estuary Tidal System  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

localized energy extraction in an localized energy extraction in an idealized, energetically complete numerical model of an ocean-estuary tidal system MHK Instrumentation, Measurement & Computer Modeling Workshop, Broomfield CO, July 10 2012 Mitsuhiro Kawase and Marisa Gedney Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center / School of Oceanography University of Washington Seattle WA 98195 United States * Far-field (Estuary-wide) - Changes in the tidal range - Changes in tidal currents ï‚— Near-field (Vicinity of the Device) ï‚— Flow redirection ï‚— Interaction with marine life ï‚— Impact on bottom sediments and benthos Environmental Effects of Tidal Energy Extraction * Reduction in tidal range can permanently expose/submerge tidal flats, altering nearshore habitats * Reduction in kinetic energy of

225

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

226

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

227

Ocean Energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Some of these technologies are taking off from very low power capacities, although with an intense activity....4, 5] including La Rance tidal power station calculate a capacity of ocean energy facilities worldwid...

Ricardo Guerrero-Lemus; José Manuel Martínez-Duart

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

229

Coupling Mineral Carbonation and Ocean Liming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

systems suggests that, unless air capture significantly outperforms these systems, it is likely to require more than 400 kJ of work per mol of CO2, requiring it to be powered by CO2-neutral power sources in order to be CO2 neg. ... by the oceans at an increased rate if ocean alky. ... Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is altering the seawater chem. of the world's oceans with consequences for marine biota. ...

P. Renforth; T. Kruger

2013-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

230

Anomalous seafloor mounds in the northern Natal Valley, southwest Indian Ocean: Implications for the East African Rift System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The Natal Valley (southwest Indian Ocean) has a complicated and protracted opening history, as has the surrounding southwest Indian Ocean. Recently collected multibeam swath bathymetry and 3.5 kHz seismic data from the Natal Valley reveal anomalous seafloor mounds in the northern Natal Valley. The significance, of these domes, as recorders of the geological history of the Natal Valley and SE African Margin has been overlooked with little attempt made to identify their origin, evolution or tectonic significance. This paper aims to describe these features from a morphological perspective and to use their occurrence as a means to better understand the geological and oceanographic evolution of this basin. The seafloor mounds are distinct in both shallow seismic and morphological character from the surrounding seafloor of the Natal Valley. Between 25 km and 31 km long, and 16 km and 18 km wide, these features rise some 400 m above the sedimentary deposits that have filled in the Natal Valley. Such macro-scale features have not previously been described from the Natal Valley or from other passive margins globally. They are not the result of bottom water circulation, salt tectonics; rather, igneous activity is favoured as the origin for these anomalous seafloor features. We propose a hypothesis that the anomalous seafloor mounds observed in the Natal Valley are related to igneous activity associated with the EARS. The complicated opening history and antecedent geology, coupled with the southward propagation of the East African Rift System creates a unique setting where continental rift associated features have been developed in a marine setting.

Errol Wiles; Andrew Green; Mike Watkeys; Wilfried Jokat; Ralph Krocker

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

A Portable Airborne Scanning Lidar System for Ocean and Coastal Applications  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A portable compact airborne scanning lidar system based on the Riegl LMS-Q240i has been developed and its functionality demonstrated for oceanographic and coastal measurements. Differential GPS (DGPS) and an inertial navigation system are ...

Benjamin D. Reineman; Luc Lenain; David Castel; W. Kendall Melville

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

A model for improving ocean wind forecasts using satellite  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using the dynamical model from previous talk we now want to assimilate the satellite measurements Using the dynamical model from previous talk we now want to assimilate the satellite measurements now want to assimilate the satellite measurements into this model. We will discuss the measurement

Malmberg, Anders

233

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

234

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

235

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

237

Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model of Technology Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India A. ROUTRAY National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida The performance of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model in real

238

DEPARTMENT OF EARTH, OCEAN and ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prediction, meteorological data analysis, prognosis of weather systems, motion and development, satellite meteorology, west-coast meteorology, and interpretation of satellite images, radar images, and numerical-weather imagery, Doppler radar, numerical weather prediction, extended range forecasting, and applied laboratory

239

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

240

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Improving the Display of Wind Patterns and Ocean Currents  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considerable effort has gone into building numerical weather and ocean prediction models during the past 50 years. Less effort has gone into the visual representation of output from those forecast models and many of the techniques used are known to be ...

Colin Ware; John G.W. Kelley; David Pilar

242

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology EARLY ONLINE RELEASE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainty associated with winter storm precipitation type, accumulation, and29 timing is a major forecasting hydrometeor classification algorithm for winter precipitation. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. doi:10.1175/JTECH classification algorithm for1 winter precipitation2 Elizabeth J. Thompson, Steven A. Rutledge, Brenda Dolan

Rutledge, Steven

243

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

245

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

246

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

247

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Frequency selection of an inductive contactless power transmission system for ocean observing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inductive Contactless Power Transmission (ICPT) may suffer considerable power loss due to eddy currents in seawater when applied undersea rather than on land. The loss of power, which is harmful to transmission efficiency, is closely related to the transmission frequency. However, the relationship between the transmission frequency and the efficiency has rarely been studied. In this paper, we analytically deduce the power transmission efficiency in air and the power loss of ICPT in seawater. Based on the theoretical calculation and analysis, guidelines are provided to select the optimum frequency to maximise the efficiency. A case study is then performed to numerically determine the optimum frequency for an undersea ICPT system. Laboratory experiments are conducted to confirm the theoretical results. A prototype ICPT system power is designed and built. A lake trial demonstrates that the designed system is able to transmit power contactless to actual undersea observation network equipment underwater with an efficiency of approximately 85% and a 5 mm gap distance.

Jie Zhou; De-jun Li; Ying Chen

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Ocean Wave Energy Systems Design: Conceptual Design Methodology for the Operational Matching of the Wells Air Turbine  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The paper has set out a conceptual design methodology that was employed in the design of a Wells air turbine for OWC ocean wave energy plants. In particular, the ... sizing, given the range and frequency of power

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Anchovy population and ocean-climatic fluctuations in the Humboldt Current System during the last 700 years and their implications  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A marine sedimentary record collected from 87 m water depth in a coastal environment of the Humboldt Current System (Mejillones Bay, 23° S, northern Chile) was used to reconstruct the past 700 years of ocean-climatic conditions and to study the influence of any changes on anchovy population dynamics. We analyzed quartz, organic carbon, total nitrogen, alkenones and fish scales. Four stratigraphic units in the sediment column correspond with fluctuations in these and other proxies. Low Scale Deposition Rate (SDR) values from 1330 to 1420 suggest a low abundance of anchovy in this coastal environment. Three subsequent cycles of ca. 170 years each showed an increase and decrease of anchovy populations, which is in agreement with changes in the wind regime, sea surface temperature and primary productivity. Since ca. 1840, marked fluctuations of SDR have been observed, probably as a consequence of the onset of a different oceanographic regime characterized by intensified southern winds and upwelling, colder surface waters, higher primary productivity, and enhanced “La Niña like” interdecadal variability. An increase of the anchovy population was observed until halfway through the 20th century, followed by a decrease, even though water temperature decreased and primary productivity increased. This situation is likely the consequence of the increased fishery activity that developed in this zone during the last 60 years. After analyzing the results obtained for anchovy SDR, we can determine that there is a relation between the abundance of this species and phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), in which an increase in the SDR coincides with a PDO cold phase, while a decline coincides with a warm phase. Fast Fourier transformation analysis applied to the time series obtained from the Mejillones sediment core and to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the PDO, and the solar irradiance index time series shows three different decadal cycles (80–100 years, 61–75 years and 45–48 years approximately). Furthermore, the results of this study suggest that both the PDO and the NAO and the biogeochemical markers of Mejillones exhibit periodicities that fall within the 80 to 100 year Gleissberg solar cycle, indicating that global solar radiation plays a key role in the local ocean-climatic processes and confirming teleconnection linkages between widely separated regions.

Marcos Guiñez; Jorge Valdés; Abdel Sifeddine; Mohammed Boussafir; Paola M. Dávila

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Toward self-describing and workflow integrated Earth system models: A coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system application  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The complexity of Earth system models and their applications is increasing as a consequence of scientific advances, user demand, and the ongoing development of computing platforms, storage systems and distributed high-resolution observation networks. ... Keywords: Coupled Earth system models, Provenance information, ROMS, Scientific workflow, Self-describing models, WRF

Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu; Nuzhet Dalfes; Sylvia Murphy; Cecelia Deluca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

253

Measuring Ocean Acidification: New Technology for a New Era of Ocean Chemistry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CO2 system changes in the upper ocean (wind-mixed layer) at stations in the Pacific (HOT) and Atlantic (BATS) oceans: the carbonate:bicarbonate concentration ratio and pH. ... Ocean alkalinity buffers the effects of oceanic CO2 uptake, but slowing and eventually reversing the trend of increasing ocean acidity will require increased continental weathering and dissolution of ocean carbonate sediments. ... (80) Each platform imposes different constraints on instrument design and performance in terms of measurement frequency, accuracy, and precision, as well as sensor size, power requirements, and endurance. ...

Robert H. Byrne

2014-04-07T23:59:59.000Z

254

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

256

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

258

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

259

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

263

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

264

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

265

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

266

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

267

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

269

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

270

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

271

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

272

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

273

Ocean | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Related Links List of Ocean Thermal Incentives Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleOcean&oldid273467" Categories: Articles with outstanding TODO tasks Sectors...

274

Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology weather and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6% which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

E-Print Network 3.0 - antarctic southern ocean Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Antarctic waters Joellen Russell runs models showing coupled climate systems of winds and ocean currents... . The southern ocean is warming faster than anywhere else. The result is...

276

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

278

E-Print Network 3.0 - adeep ocean margin Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

The ocean serves as the memory of the climate system... it takes vastly more energy to heat up the ocean, ocean temperature is much more resistant to change than... air or land...

279

Biogeography and Evolution of Hydrothermal-Vent Fauna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Hydrothermal-Vent Fauna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Verena Tunnicliffe The biogeography...the spreading history of mid-ocean ridges. Extensive collections...active ridge systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean provide an opportunity to examine...

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

The Pacific Ocean’s Acidification Laboratory  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Pacific Ocean’s Acidification Laboratory ... Five years ago, at the quadrennial International Coral Reef Symposium in Okinawa, Japan, a poll of the scientists and resource managers present ranked ocean acidification 38th out of a list of 39 possible threats facing reefs, recalls Rusty Brainard, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Coral Reef Ecosystem Division. ... As the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere at the rate of one million tons per hour, the pH of the water is changing. ...

Christopher Pala

2009-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

282

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

283

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stéphane Bélair; Claude Girard; André Plante

284

Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical ...

Michael E. Splitt; Steven M. Lazarus; Sarah Collins; Denis N. Botambekov; William P. Roeder

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a ...

Stefano Materia; Andrea Borrelli; Alessio Bellucci; Andrea Alessandri; Pierluigi Di Pietro; Panagiotis Athanasiadis; Antonio Navarra; Silvio Gualdi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...R. Young 2009 From laboratory manipulations to Earth system models: scaling calcification impacts of ocean acidification...CO2-induced climate change?: Results from four Earth system models. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. 3, 31-72. 10...

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

291

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

292

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

293

ARM - Field Campaign - Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

govCampaignsTropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere govCampaignsTropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Exp Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Exp 1992.07.11 - 1993.02.28 Lead Scientist : Chuck Long Data Availability Final data available. For data sets, see below. Summary IOP completed. Description The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) was conducted to better understand the structure of the coupled system of the warm pool of the western Pacific Ocean. Hundreds of participants from dozens of countries took part in this experiment from November 1, 1992 through February 28, 1993. Campaign Data Sets

294

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

295

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

297

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

298

HEAT EXCHANGE AND WEATHER FORECASTING  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...energy into kinetic energy. In the scheme of...that the potential energy has to be re- stored...time, search for energy sources and sinks...earth's surfaces as a converter of radiation into...where K is the thermal diffusivity; in...the mobility of the ocean waters, we see that...

Sverre Petterssen

1959-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Modeling Tidal Stream Energy Extraction and its Effects on Transport Processes in a Tidal Channel and Bay System Using a Three-dimensional Coastal Ocean Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a numerical modeling study for simulating in-stream tidal energy extraction and assessing its effects on the hydrodynamics and transport processes in a tidal channel and bay system connecting to coastal ocean. A marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) module was implemented in a three-dimensional (3-D) coastal ocean model using the momentum sink approach. The MHK model was validated with the analytical solutions for tidal channels under one-dimensional (1-D) conditions. Model simulations were further carried out to compare the momentum sink approach with the quadratic bottom friction approach. The effects of 3-D simulations on the vertical velocity profile, maximum extractable energy, and volume flux reduction across the channel were investigated through a series of numerical experiments. 3-D model results indicate that the volume flux reduction at the maximum extractable power predicted by the 1-D analytical model or two-dimensional (2-D) depth-averaged numerical model may be overestimated. Maximum extractable energy strongly depends on the turbine hub height in the water column, and which reaches a maximum when turbine hub height is located at mid-water depth. Far-field effects of tidal turbines on the flushing time of the tidal bay were also investigated. Model results demonstrate that tidal energy extraction has a greater effect on the flushing time than volume flux reduction, which could negatively affect the biogeochemical processes in estuarine and coastal waters that support primary productivity and higher forms of marine life.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea E.

2013-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

300

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

303

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

304

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

305

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

306

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

308

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

309

Om Ocean Energy Centre Vrt uppdrag r att frmja havsenergiindustrin i Sverige  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

test med uppankring av "slangen" i havet) Waves4Power Vigor WaveEnergy Ocean Harvester Deep Green simulation · Power from the ocean Ocean Mechanical system Electrical System · Power take-off · ElectricOm Ocean Energy Centre Vårt uppdrag är att främja havsenergiindustrin i Sverige och

Lemurell, Stefan

310

Off-design performance analysis of a closed-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion system with solar thermal preheating and superheating  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This article reports the off-design performance analysis of a closed-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) system when a solar thermal collector is integrated as an add-on preheater or superheater. Design-point analysis of a simple OTEC system was numerically conducted to generate a gross power of 100 kW, representing a base OTEC system. In order to improve the power output of the OTEC system, two ways of utilizing solar energy are considered in this study: (1) preheating of surface seawater to increase its input temperature to the cycle and (2) direct superheating of the working fluid before it enters a turbine. Obtained results reveal that both preheating and superheating cases increase the net power generation by 20–25% from the design-point. However, the preheating case demands immense heat load on the solar collector due to the huge thermal mass of the seawater, being less efficient thermodynamically. The superheating case increases the thermal efficiency of the system from 1.9% to around 3%, about a 60% improvement, suggesting that this should be a better approach in improving the OTEC system. This research provides thermodynamic insight on the potential advantages and challenges of adding a solar thermal collection component to OTEC power plants.

Hakan Aydin; Ho-Saeng Lee; Hyeon-Ju Kim; Seung Kyoon Shin; Keunhan Park

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Towards Improved Prediction of Ocean Processes Using Statistical Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on Gaussian Process (GP) regression, which provide improved estimates of ocean currents and also have current estimates from the Southern California Bight provided by the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS with sensors like HF-Radar have allowed accurate predictions of ocean currents, temperature, and other

Sukhatme, Gaurav S.

312

College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University 104 CEOAS Admin Bldg Announcement College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Posting 0012926 ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, Earth Systems History The College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS) at Oregon State University

313

ORIGINAL PAPER Impacts of ocean acidification on respiratory gas exchange  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ORIGINAL PAPER Impacts of ocean acidification on respiratory gas exchange and acid­base balance / Revised: 11 April 2012 / Accepted: 14 April 2012 � Springer-Verlag 2012 Abstract The oceanic carbonate Gill HCO3 - uptake Introduction The earth's oceanic carbonate system (partial pressure of CO2, p

Grosell, Martin

314

State of the Science FACT SHEET Ocean Acidification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

research on changes in the ocean carbon chemistry and pH, impacts on major coastal and pelagic ecosystems and fisheries and socio-economic systems. What is Ocean Acidification and How Does it Affect Marine Species) of about 30% since the start of the industrial age through a process known as "ocean acidification

315

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

316

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Causes of ocean currents  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the foregoing analysis of the ocean and the atmosphere as two interacting subsystems, we have identified two major energy inputs into the ocean. These are the wind stress over the sea surface and heat fluxe...

David Tolmazin

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in current Earth system models and (ii) imperfect knowledge of model parameters. Ocean tracers observa- tions

Haran, Murali

319

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project “Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas”. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90 min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Comparison of the Carbon System Parameters at the Global CO2 Survey Crossover Locations in the North and South Pacific Ocean, 1990-1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As a collaborative program to measure global ocean carbon inventories and provide estimates of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (C02) uptake by the oceans. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Energy have sponsored the collection of ocean carbon measurements as part of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Study cruises. The cruises discussed here occurred in the North and South Pacific from 1990 through 1996. The carbon parameters from these 30 crossover locations have been compared to ensure that a consistent global data set emerges from the survey cruises. !'he results indicate that for dissolved inorganic carbon. fugacity of C02• and pH. the a~:,rreements at most crossover locations are well within the design specifications for the global CO) survey: whereas. in the case of total alkaliniry. the agreement between crossover locations is not as close.

Feely, Richard A [NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); Lamb, Marilyn F. [NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); Greeley, Dana J. [NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); Wanninkhof, Rik [NOAA, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)

1999-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Development of two-variable maximum power point tracking control for ocean wave energy converters utilizing a power analysis and data acquisition system.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Ocean wave energy shows great potential as a developing form of renewable energy. However, challenges arise in maturing this technology to achieve cost-effective energy conversion.… (more)

Amon, Ean A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Ocean | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ocean Ocean Ocean Data Tools Technical Guide Map Gallery Regional Planning Feedback Ocean Welcome to our COMMUNITY This is the National Ocean Council's portal for data, information, and decision tools to support people engaged in regional marine planning for the future use of the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes. Our goal is to enhance discovery of and access to data and information for planners, stakeholders, and the public. Please visit our Feedback page to tell us what would make the site most useful to you as we expand our content. Start Here! Previous Pause Next PacIOOS - Pacific Islands Voyager PacIOOS - Pacific Islands Voyager View More West Coast Governors Alliance - Regional Data Framework West Coast Governors Alliance - Regional Data Framework View More Mid-Atlantic Ocean Data Portal

325

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

327

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

328

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

329

Florian SEITZ: Atmospheric and oceanic impacts to Earth rotations numerical studies with a dynamic Earth system model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with a dynamic Earth system model (completed in October 2004) Variations of Earth rotation are caused Earth system model DyMEG has been developed. It is based on the balance of angular momentum

Schuh, Harald

330

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

333

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

334

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

335

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

336

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

337

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

339

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

344

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

346

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Draft Programmaticof ocean thermal energy conversion technology. U.S. Depart~on Ocean TherUial Energy Conversion, June 18, 1979. Ocean

Sands, M.Dale

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing is an integral part of an ensemble prediction system. This study compares methods used to derive probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the high-resolution version of the German-focused Consortium ...

Sabrina Bentzien; Petra Friederichs

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Effects of thermocline on performance of underwater glider’s power system propelled by ocean thermal energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The thermal glider’s changeable volume produces propelling force to power the glider’s descending and ascending through ... affect the working processes of the glider’s power system. Based on the enthalpy method,...

Hai Yang; Jie Ma

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Technical and philosophical aspects of ocean disposal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Di sposai . Geological aspects Physical aspects Chemical aspects Biological aspects CHAPTER II. TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF OCEAN DISPOSAL Types of Waste Materials. Dredged materiais. Industrial wastes, DomestIc sewage wa tes Solid wastes Radloact..., can reduce the passage of light through the water column and cause damaging effects to the marine ecosystem. Each of five major oceans has pronounced gyral, or circular current motion (Fiaure 1. 1). The North Atlantic current system is comprised...

Zapatka, Marchi Charisse

1976-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Final Report for DOE Grant DE-FG02-07ER64470 [“Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications”  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The primary goal of the project entitled “Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications” was to systematically investigate the performance of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as an alternative oceanic component of the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have configured two versions of the fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM: one with a medium resolution (T42) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and the other with higher resolution (T85). We have performed a comprehensive analysis of the 400-year fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM simulations and compared the results with those from CCSM3/POP and with climatological observations, and also we have performed tuning of critical model parameters, including Smagorinsky viscosity, isopycnal diffusivity, and background vertical diffusivity. The analysis shows that most oceanic features are well represented in the CCSM3/HYCOM. The coupled CCSM3/HYCOM (T42) has been integrated for 400 years, and the results have been archived and transferred to the High Performance Computer in the Florida State Univesity. In the last year, we have made comprehensive diagnostics of the long-term simulations by the comparison with the original CCSM3/POP simulation and with the observations. To gain some understanding of the model biases, the mean climate and modes of climate variability of the two models are compared with observations. The examination includes the Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM and SAM), the Pacific-North-American (PNA) pattern, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the main Southern Ocean SST mode. We also compared the performance of ENSO simulation in the coupled models. This report summarizes the main findings from the comparison of long-term CCSM3/HYCOM and CCSM3/POP simulations.

Chassignet, Eric P

2013-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

353

Liu et aL.September 2012 373 Simulation of ocean ReSponSeS to an idealized  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, inundation, significant wave heights and ocean currents in shallow coastal areas as a result of wave, significant wave height and ocean currents. Only in a TC-wave- ocean three-way coupled system, air, inundation, currents and significant wave height. Keywords: coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system

Liu, Paul

354

An investigation of Bjerknes Compensation in the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project aims to understand the relationship between poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport in the Southern Ocean by analyzing output from the community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). In particular, time series of meridional heat transport in both the atmosphere and the ocean are used to study whether variability in ocean heat transport is balanced by opposing changes in atmospheric heat transport, called Bjerknes Compensation. It is shown that the heat storage term in the Southern Ocean has a significant impact on the oceanic heat budget; as a result, no robust coherences between oceanic and atmospheric heat transports could be found at these southern latitudes.

Weijer, Wilbert [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kinstle, Caroline M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-08-28T23:59:59.000Z

355

How ocean currents are studied  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

How infinite and boundless the ocean must have seemed to the first man to set foot upon its shore. Kind or stern, shallow or steep, the ocean’s shores have always held a peculiar fascination for man. The moist...

David Tolmazin

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Challenges in Ocean Energy Utilization  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ocean is a reservoir of energy. It is ... . Development of suitable cost effective technologies for power generation from different forms of ocean energy (like wave energy, tidal energy, Ocean Thermal Energy Conv...

S. Neelamani

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

359

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

360

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

362

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

364

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

365

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

366

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

369

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Constraining oceanic dust deposition using surface ocean dissolved Al  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Constraining oceanic dust deposition using surface ocean dissolved Al Qin Han,1 J. Keith Moore,1; accepted 7 December 2007; published 12 April 2008. [1] We use measurements of ocean surface dissolved Al (DEAD) model to constrain dust deposition to the oceans. Our Al database contains all available

Zender, Charles

371

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

373

Travel Time Forecasting Lyngby 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

part of a new real-time traffic reporting system. This system is in the pipeline in the framework steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 7.4 Data cleaning, repair and aggregation

374

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

376

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

377

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

378

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

379

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

380

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

382

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Response of upper ocean currents to typhoons at two ADCP moorings west of the Luzon Strait  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We deployed two ADCP mooring systems west of the Luzon Strait in August 2008, and measured the upper ocean currents at high frequency. Two typhoons passed over ... , we studied the response of the upper ocean to ...

Fei Chen ??; Yan Du ??; Li Yan ??…

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Impacts on ocean heat from transient mesoscale eddies in a hierarchy of climate models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We characterize impacts on heat in the ocean climate system from transient ocean mesoscale eddies. Our tool is a suite of centennial-scale 1990 radiatively forced numerical climate simulations from three GFDL coupled models comprising the CM2-O ...

Stephen M. Griffies; Michael Winton; Whit G. Anderson; Rusty Benson; Thomas L. Delworth; Carolina O. Dufour; John P. Dunne; Paul Goddard; Adele k. Morrison; Anthony Rosati; Andrew T. Wittenberg; Jianjun Yin; Rong Zhang

385

The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...atmosphere and ocean (although the ocean remains too coarse to permit mesoscale eddies), a larger proportion of full Earth system models (ESMs) resolving biogeochemical cycles, the inclusion of atmospheric ozone in all models and more complete atmospheric...

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Correlative Evolutions of ENSO and the Seasonal Cycle in the Tropical Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines whether shifts between the correlative evolutions of ENSO and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean can produce effects that are large enough to alter the evolution of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. The ...

Heng Xiao; Carlos R. Mechoso

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Stochastic variability of large-scale oceanic flows above topography anomalies Antoine Venaille,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the ubiquity of red noise signals in time series of various oceanic metrics is generally thought to result from but with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate the "oceanic weather system", i.e. mesoscale eddies at scale from

388

Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...such a high resolution is not yet possible in the Earth system models, and therefore the role of the Antarctic continental...them in a suitable way for their inclusion in global Earth system models. Ocean gliders offer great potential for observing...

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

390

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

391

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

392

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

393

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

394

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

396

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

397

Simple ocean carbon cycle models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Simple ocean carbon cycle models can be used to calculate the rate at which the oceans are likely to absorb CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. For problems involving steady-state ocean circulation, well calibrated ocean models produce results that are very similar to results obtained using general circulation models. Hence, simple ocean carbon cycle models may be appropriate for use in studies in which the time or expense of running large scale general circulation models would be prohibitive. Simple ocean models have the advantage of being based on a small number of explicit assumptions. The simplicity of these ocean models facilitates the understanding of model results.

Caldeira, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hoffert, M.I. [New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Earth System Sciences; Siegenthaler, U. [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. fuer Physik

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A pertinent question, however, is: what is the worldwide power resource that could be extracted with OTEC plants without affecting the thermohaline ocean circulation? The estimate is that the maximum steady-state...

Dr. Luis A. Vega Ph.D.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A pertinent question, however, is: what is the worldwide power resource that could be extracted with OTEC plants without affecting the thermohaline ocean circulation? The estimate is that the maximum steady-state...

Dr. Luis A. Vega Ph.D.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Use of Ocean Energies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For converting the current of water for the production of electricity, there is a wide range of technological approaches. The Italian ocean current power plant named Kobold (Fig. 6.2) was the first commercial o...

Prof. Dr.-Ing Hermann-Josef Wagner…

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Natural Calamities and Their Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Man and the Environment (habitat) comprise an integrated system consisting of numerous inter-related elements, possessing specific traits, and streamlined within certain boundaries. The interaction between Man...

Valery A. Menshikov; Anatoly N. Perminov…

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Strengths and weaknesses of the global ocean conveyor: Inter-basin freshwater disparities as the major control  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the current paradigm of modern climatology and oceanography, the global ocean thermohaline circula- tion works as the so-called ``global ocean salinity conveyor belt'' ­ a system of currents connecting different ocean ``conveyor'' is illustrated as a loop of currents connecting the two most distant parts of the world ocean

403

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

404

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily.

Zhongyue Su; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu; Ge Zhao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Flexible ocean upwelling pipe  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

In an ocean thermal energy conversion facility, a cold water riser pipe is releasably supported at its upper end by the hull of the floating facility. The pipe is substantially vertical and has its lower end far below the hull above the ocean floor. The pipe is defined essentially entirely of a material which has a modulus of elasticity substantially less than that of steel, e.g., high density polyethylene, so that the pipe is flexible and compliant to rather than resistant to applied bending moments. The position of the lower end of the pipe relative to the hull is stabilized by a weight suspended below the lower end of the pipe on a flexible line. The pipe, apart from the weight, is positively buoyant. If support of the upper end of the pipe is released, the pipe sinks to the ocean floor, but is not damaged as the length of the line between the pipe and the weight is sufficient to allow the buoyant pipe to come to a stop within the line length after the weight contacts the ocean floor, and thereafter to float submerged above the ocean floor while moored to the ocean floor by the weight. The upper end of the pipe, while supported by the hull, communicates to a sump in the hull in which the water level is maintained below the ambient water level. The sump volume is sufficient to keep the pipe full during heaving of the hull, thereby preventing collapse of the pipe.

Person, Abraham (Los Alamitos, CA)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Simulating Temperature, Salinity and Currents in the Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Effective use of scarce resources requires a coherent and rational approach to oceanic system development. Included in this approach is the simulation of the performance of the proposed system, be it oceanogra...

Kim David Saunders; David B. King

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge of the melting process of a particle injected in a plasma jet. The plasma process is nowadays applied to produce devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

409

A COMPARISON OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL QUANTITIES WITH FORECASTS FROM CLOUD PREDICTION MODELS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, Bethesda, MD March 15-19, 2010 Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content

410

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

411

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

412

European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

413

Convective-scale Warn on Forecast: A Vision for 2020 David J. Stensrud1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 5 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods since these phenomena forecast guidance. Since increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning lead times

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

414

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

415

Detecting the Unexpected: A Research Framework for Ocean Acidification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

(1) In the oceans, increasing CO2 alters surface seawater chemistry by decreasing ocean pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. ... Along the California Current system, artificial warming of seawater by a power plant was predicted to have a positive effect on species with a southerly geographic range and a more negative effect on those with a northerly range. ... The effects of anthropogenic CO2 on ocean chemistry are relatively well understood due to research motivated—in part—by the related climate change issue of oceanic and atmospheric warming. ...

Catherine A. Pfister; Andrew J. Esbaugh; Christina A. Frieder; Hannes Baumann; Emily E. Bockmon; Meredith M. White; Brendan R. Carter; Heather M. Benway; Carol A. Blanchette; Emily Carrington; James B. McClintock; Daniel C. McCorkle; Wade R. McGillis; T. Aran Mooney; Patrizia Ziveri

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Ocean Currents and Their Role in the Biosphere  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article discusses the role of the ocean currents in the climate system and the mechanisms how changes in the ocean currents can affect climate and biosphere. Special attention is paid to the Atlantic thermohaline circulation which is generally believed to be the most sensitive component of the ocean circulation. Modeling results and paleoclimate evidences of the past instability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulations is discussed. It is shown that the rapid reorganizations of the ocean currents which occurred many times during the glacial age had a global-scale impact on climate. It is also shown that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems were strongly affected by changes in the ocean circulation. A possibility of the rapid reorganization of the ocean circulation in the future in response to anthropogenic global warming and its potential impact on climate, natural ecosystems, agriculture, and fishery is discussed based on numerous modeling results.

A. Ganopolski

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Synthetic fluid inclusions: VIII. Vapor-saturated halite solubility in part of the system NaCl-CaCl sub 2 -H sub 2 O, with application to fluid inclusions from oceanic hydrothermal systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Halite solubility along part of the vapor-saturated liquidus in the system NaCl-CaCl{sub 2}-H{sub 2}O has been determined using the synthetic fluid inclusion technique. Data allow the construction of liquidus isotherms for temperatures up to 500{degree}C and bulk compositions containing >60 wt% total salt and as much as 25 wt% CaCl{sub 2}. Combined with previous data for the binary system NaCl-H{sub 2}O and for the ternary system NaCl-CaCl{sub 2}-H{sub 2}O in the low-salinity, low-temperature region, a preliminary ternary phase diagram can be constructed that remains incomplete only in the CaCl{sub 2}-rich region. Results are applied to the interpretation of saline fluid inclusions from quartz veins in oceanic metagabbros, and can be applied to many other natural inclusions containing aqueous solutions with NaCl and CaCl{sub 2} the dominant solutes. Microthermometric measurements at equilibrium of the melting temperature of ice (Tm (ice)) and of the dissolution temperature of halite (Tm (halite)) are sufficient to determine the bulk composition of the NaCl-CaCl{sub 2}-H{sub 2}O fluid.

Vanko, D.A. (Georgia State Univ., Atlanta (USA)); Bodnar, R.J.; Sterner, S.M. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Univ., Blacksburg (USA))

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha?1 in June and 0.4 t ha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model Andreas Sterl Richard Bintanja Laurent Brodeau Emily Gleeson  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the special issue on EC-Earth, a global climate and earth system model based on the seasonal forecast system-011-1239-2 #12;phytoplankton) processes are involved. To study such complex interactions, Earth System Models

Haak, Hein

420

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

2012-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

422

Model Wind over the Central and Southern California Coastal Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Recent studies have shown the importance of high-resolution wind in coastal ocean modeling. This paper tests the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) at the 9-, 27-, and 81-km grid resolutions in simulating wind off the ...

Hsiao-ming Hsu; Lie-Yauw Oey; Walter Johnson; Clive Dorman; Richard Hodur

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Magma to Microbe: Modeling Hydrothermal Processes at Ocean Spreading Centers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

215 Magma to Microbe: Modeling Hydrothermal Processes at Ocean Spreading Centers Geophysical is very limited. Low-temperature diffuse vent fluids, ubiquitous at hydrothermal systems, provide one microorganisms from diffuse hydrothermal vent fluids and the subseafloor at basalt-hosted mid-ocean ridges

Holden, James F.

424

Ocean Energy Resource Basics | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Hydropower Ocean Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Tidal Energy Wave Energy Ocean Resources Solar Wind Homes & Buildings Industry Vehicles & Fuels...

425

Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization: Final Technical Report Report about the Ocean Thermal...

426

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

427

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

428

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

429

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

430

Infrasonic ambient ocean noise: Northeast Pacific Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Measurements of ocean ambient noise were made at three widely separated deep?water bottom locations in the N. E. Pacific at eight frequencies in the range from 2.5–20.0 Hz for 40 consecutive days. Concurrent data on wind speed and wave height were collected. Analysis indicates that the spectrum level of infrasonicnoise is linearly related to the log of the wind speed above a threshold level. There is evidence that the noise can be directly associated with the wind rather than through the surface waves it produces. [Work supported by ONR.

Rudolph H. Nichols

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Incursion of the Pacific Ocean Water into the Indian Ocean  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Using the data collected during the International Indian Ocean Expedition, maps showing the distribution of depth ... became clear that low-salinity water from the Pacific intrudes into the western Indian Ocean t...

G S Sharma; A D Gouveia…

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

South Pacific Ocean Dipole: A Predictable Mode on Multiseasonal Time Scales  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Evaluating the climate hindcasts for 1982–2009 from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), this study identifies substantial areas of high prediction skill of the sea surface ...

Yuanhong Guan; Jieshun Zhu; Bohua Huang; Zeng-Zhen Hu; James L. Kinter III

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

434

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

437

146 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL 27, NO.2, APRIL2002 r! The Long-TermEcosystem Observatory:An  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, observational data are collected from satellites, aircrafts, ships, fixed/relocatable moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles. The majority of the data are available in real-time allowing for adaptive sampling of episodic events and are assimilated into ocean forecast models. In this observationally rich environment

Moline, Mark

438

Model Wind over the Central and Southern California Coastal Ocean HSIAO-MING HSU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model Wind over the Central and Southern California Coastal Ocean HSIAO-MING HSU National Center of high-resolution wind in coastal ocean modeling. This paper tests the Coupled Ocean­Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) at the 9-, 27-, and 81-km grid resolutions in simulating wind off the central

439

An optimizing reduced order FDS for the tropical Pacific Ocean reduced gravity model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An optimizing reduced order FDS for the tropical Pacific Ocean reduced gravity model Zhendong Luoa) for the tropical Pacific Ocean reduced gravity model. Ensembles of data are compiled from transient solutions computed from the discrete equation system derived by FDS for the tropical Pacific Ocean reduced gravity

Aluffi, Paolo

440

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Requirements for Requirements for m461:Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions Tomek Plewa (Florida State University) + 3 graduate students, Artur Gawryszczak (Warsaw), Konstantinos Kifonidis (Munich), Andrzej Odrzywolek (Cracow), Ju Zhang (FIT), Andrey Zhiglo (Kharkov) 1. m461: Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions * Summarize your projects and expected scientific objectives through 2014 * Modeling and simulations of transient phenomena in stellar astrophysics driven by either radiation or thermonuclear processes * Numerical solution of a coupled system of PDEs and ODEs * Tame nonlinearity! * Our goal is to ... * Explain observed properties of exploding stellar objects * Present focus is ... * Neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions * In the next 3 years we expect to ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Energy from the Ocean [and Discussion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...development among the ocean energy options, and other relatively...paper focuses on ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). However, much of the paper's content has relevance to the use of the other ocean energy sources. Techniques of ocean...

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Intercomparison and Coupling of Ensemble and Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Methods for the Analysis and Forecasting of Hurricane Karl (2010)  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the performance of ensemble and variational data assimilation systems for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These methods include an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an incremental four-dimensional variational ...

Jonathan Poterjoy; Fuqing Zhang

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch University, Princeton University, and the Advanced Light Source (ALS) suggests that it is not just a lack of iron, but a lack of iron in an easy-to-use form, that is affecting the ecosystems. The researchers sampled two north-south corridors across the Southern Ocean, traveling an easterly transect between the base of the South African National Antarctic Expeditions (SANAE IV) in Queen Maud Land and Cape Town, and a westerly transect between SANAE IV and South Georgia Island. Along the way they collected particles containing solid iron from a series of ocean systems with different characteristics.

444

Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print Iron Availability in the Southern Ocean Print The Southern Ocean, circling the Earth between Antarctica and the southernmost regions of Africa, South America, and Australia, is notorious for its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas, which are rich in nutrients-but poor in essential iron. Sea life is less abundant in these regions because the growth of phytoplankton-the marine plants that form the base of the food chain-is suppressed. A study by scientists from South Africa's Stellenbosch University, Princeton University, and the Advanced Light Source (ALS) suggests that it is not just a lack of iron, but a lack of iron in an easy-to-use form, that is affecting the ecosystems. The researchers sampled two north-south corridors across the Southern Ocean, traveling an easterly transect between the base of the South African National Antarctic Expeditions (SANAE IV) in Queen Maud Land and Cape Town, and a westerly transect between SANAE IV and South Georgia Island. Along the way they collected particles containing solid iron from a series of ocean systems with different characteristics.

445

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

446

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

449

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

450

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

451

The Deep Ocean During the Last Interglacial Period  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...models with the insolation values for 126,000 years before the present (supporting online text). We used two Earth System models of intermediate complexity: CLIMBER-2 (26) and LOVECLIM (27). In CLIMBER-2, the ocean is represented by three...

J. C. Duplessy; D. M. Roche; M. Kageyama

2007-04-06T23:59:59.000Z

452

Secondary Sewage Treatment Versus Ocean Outfalls: An Assessment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...the energy balance, the system...Secondary Sewage Treatment Versus Ocean...treatment of wastewater is unneeded...secondary sewage treatment plants are estimated...secondary sewage treatment biologically...organic matter in wastewater. This action...

Charles B. Officer; John H. Ryther

1977-09-09T23:59:59.000Z

453

Design of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a new model development effort undertaken jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a number of collaborating institutions and university scientists. The model is intended for use by operational NWP and university research communities, providing a common framework for idealized dynamical studies, fill physics numerical weather prediction, air-quality simulation, and regional climate. It will eventually supersede large, well-established but aging regional models now maintained by the participating institutions. The WRF effort includes re-engineering the underlying software architecture to produce a modular, flexible code designed from the outset to provide portable performance across diverse computing architectures. This paper outlines key elements of the WRF software design.

Michalakes, J.

1999-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

454

Why Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean?  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean? Sequence Subarctic Pacific Ocean? The subarctic Pacific Ocean is one of the areas considered particularly vulnerable to acidification, which could affect the ocean's ability to act as a carbon sink. Global warming affects the food webs and biodiversity in marine ecosystems, especially in regions known as oxygen minimum zones where key components of the global carbon cycle take place. Oxygen minimum zones are found between 200 and 1,000 meters below sea level in the subarctic Pacific, the eastern South Pacific Ocean, the northern parts of the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, and off southwestern Africa. As global warming continues, researchers believe the oxygen levels in the oceans will decrease, a change that will extend the boundaries of the oxygen minimum

455

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Measurement of Ocean Surface Currents by the CRL HF Ocean Surface Radar of FMCW Type. Part 2. Current Vector  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been developing high-frequency ocean surface radars (HFOSRs). The CRL dual ... HFOSR system can clarify the distribution of surface currents with a nominal range o...

Akitsugu Nadai; Hiroshi Kuroiwa; Masafumi Mizutori…

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

than relying solely on the simulated response to changing radiative forcing (Solomon et al. 2007 of techniques (e.g. Lohmann and Schneider 1999; Zanna and Tziperman 2005; Sevellec et al. 2008). The methodology

Hawkins, Ed

460

Sensitivity of Twenty-First-Century Global-Mean Steric Sea Level Rise to Ocean Model Formulation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Two comprehensive Earth system models (ESMs), identical apart from their oceanic components, are used to estimate the uncertainty in projections of twenty-first-century sea level rise due to representational choices in ocean physical formulation. ...

Robert Hallberg; Alistair Adcroft; John P. Dunne; John P. Krasting; Ronald J. Stouffer

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Global Ocean Circulation Modeling with an Isopycnic Coordinate Model. Final Report for May 1, 1998 - April 30, 2002  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The overall aim of this project was to continue development of a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) with the intent of turning it into a full-fledged oceanic component of an earth system model.

Bleck, R.

2004-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

462

Ocean Carbon Cycle Data from the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

The U.S. JGOFS program, a component of the U.S Global Change Research Program, grew out of the recommendations of a National Academy of Sciences workshop in 1984. An ambitious goal was set to understand the controls on the concentrations and fluxes of carbon and associated nutrients in the ocean. A new field of ocean biogeochemistry emerged with an emphasis on quality measurements of carbon system parameters and interdisciplinary field studies of the biological, chemical and physical process which control the ocean carbon cycle. U.S. JGOFS, ended in 2005 with the conclusion of the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP). Data are available throughout the U.S. JGOFS web site at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/ and from the U.S. JGOFS Data System at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/jg/dir/jgofs/. Major named segments of the project are: Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) Study, Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Study, Equatorial Pacific Process Study, North Atlantic Bloom Experiment (1989), Arabian Sea Process Study, and the Southern Ocean Process Study.

463

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2006), 132, pp. 29052923 doi: 10.1256/qj.06.25 Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that many commonly used systems of measurement (`metrics') in weather forecast verification are capable of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics

Hamill, Tom

464

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

468

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

470

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

472

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

473

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

474

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

475

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

477

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

478

Ocean dynamics and thermodynamics in the tropical Indo- Pacific region  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr. ,in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean associated with the

Drushka, Kyla

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

E-Print Network 3.0 - antarctic ocean Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Antarctic waters Joellen Russell runs models showing coupled climate systems of winds and ocean currents... Russell: Mostly it's because the Antarctic circumpolar current, which is...

480

Scaling analysis for the ocean motions in single phase natural circulation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The effects of ocean motions should be analyzed properly in order to guarantee the safety margin of facilities in the engineering design of floating nuclear reactor system. The scaling analysis for the ocean motions in single phase natural circulation is performed. The scaling criteria for both single ocean motions and compound ocean motions are obtained. The selection and optimization of scaling criteria is also analyzed. The oscillating amplitude in experiments should be kept to be identical to that in actual ocean motions. The oscillating period is determined by the time scale. The length scale, oscillating period and experimental power should be taken into consideration synthetically to obtain a reasonable experimental period.

B.H. Yan; Q.L. Wen

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "ocean forecast system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

On the connection between continental-scale land surface processes and the tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of global tropical climate to perturbations in land surface processes (LSP) are evaluated using perturbations given by different LSP representations of continental-scale in a global climate model that includes atmosphere-ocean interactions. One representation is a simple land scheme, which specifies climatological albedos and soil moisture availability. The other representation is the more comprehensive Simplified Simple Biosphere Model, which allows for interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes. The results demonstrate that LSP processes such as interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes have strong impacts on the seasonal mean states and seasonal cycles of global precipitation, clouds, and surface air temperature. The impact is especially significant over the tropical Pacific. To explore the mechanisms for such impact, different LSP representations are confined to selected continental-scale regions where strong interactions of climate-vegetation biophysical processes are present. We find that the largest impact is mainly from LSP perturbations over the tropical African continent. The impact is through anomalous convective heating in tropical Africa due to changes in the surface heat fluxes, which in turn affect basinwide teleconnections in the Pacific through equatorial wave dynamics. The modifications in the equatorial Pacific climate are further enhanced by strong air-sea coupling between surface wind stress and upwelling, as well as effect of ocean memory. Our results further suggest that correct representations of land surface processes, land use change and the associated changes in the deep convection over tropical Africa are crucial to reducing the uncertainty when performing future climate projections under different climate change scenarios.

Ma, Hsi-Yen; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang; Xiao, Heng; Neelin, David; Ji, Xuan

2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

482

Posters Toward an Operational Water Vapor Remote Sensing System Using the Global Positioning System  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

3 3 Posters Toward an Operational Water Vapor Remote Sensing System Using the Global Positioning System S. I. Gutman, (a) R. B. Chadwick, (b) and D. W. Wolf (c) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado A. Simon Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science Boulder, Colorado T. Van Hove and C. Rocken University Navstar Consortium Boulder, Colorado Background Water vapor is one of the most important constituents of the free atmosphere since it is the principal mechanism by which moisture and latent heat are transported and cause "weather." The measurement of atmospheric water vapor is essential for weather and climate research as well as for operational weather forecasting. An important goal in modern weather prediction is to improve the accuracy of short-term

483

Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model ...

Caroline C. Ummenhofer; Franziska U. Schwarzkopf; Gary Meyers; Erik Behrens; Arne Biastoch; Claus W. Böning

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

Not Available

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Revised {open_quotes}LEPS{close_quotes} scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The most commonly used measures for verifying forecasts or simulations of continuous variables are root-mean-squared error (rmse) and anomaly correlation. Some disadvantages of these measures are demonstrated. Existing assessment systems for categorical forecasts are discussed briefly. An alternative unbiased verification measure is developed, known as the linear error in probability space (LEPS) score. The LEPS score may be used to assess forecasts of both continuous and categorical variables and has some advantages over rmse and anomaly correlation. The properties of the version of LEPS discussed here are reviewed and compared with an earlier form of LEPS. A skill-score version of LEPS may be used to obtain an overall measure of the skill of a number of forecasts. This skill score is biased, but the bias is negligible if the number of effectively independent forecasts or simulations is large. Some examples are given in which the LEPS skill score is compared with rmse and anomaly correlation. 14 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs.

Potts, J.M. [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom)] [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom); Folland, C.K. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)] [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Jolliffe, I.T. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom)] [and others] [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom); and others

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

ARM - Lesson Plans: Ocean Currents  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ocean Currents Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global...

487

Artificial neural network based models for forecasting electricity generation of grid connected solar PV power plant  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for forecasting the performance of electric energy generated output from a working 25-kWp grid connected solar PV system and a 100-kWp grid connected PV system installed at Minicoy Island of Union Territory of Lakshadweep Islands. The ANN interpolates among the solar PV generation output and relevant parameters such as solar radiation, module temperature and clearness index. In this study, three ANN models are implemented and validated with reasonable accuracy on real electric energy generation output data. The first model is univariate based on solar radiation and the output values. The second model is a multivariate model based on module temperature along with solar radiation. The third model is also a multivariate model based on module temperature, solar radiation and clearness index. A forecasting performance measure such as percentage root mean square error has been presented for each model. The second model, which gives the most accurate results, has been used in forecasting the generation output for another PV system with similar accuracy.

Imtiaz Ashraf; A. Chandra

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

MHK Technologies/Ocean Current Linear Turbine | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Linear Turbine Linear Turbine < MHK Technologies Jump to: navigation, search << Return to the MHK database homepage Ocean Current Linear Turbine.jpg Technology Profile Primary Organization Ocean Energy Company LLC Technology Type Click here Seabed mooring system Technology Readiness Level Click here TRL 5 6 System Integration and Technology Laboratory Demonstration Technology Description Endless cable loop with parachutes spliced to cable which moored in an ocean current pulls the cable through rotors which in turn power conventional electricity generators See US Patent 3 887 817 Additional patent pending Technology Dimensions Device Testing Date Submitted 30:08.6 << Return to the MHK database homepage Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=MHK_Technologies/Ocean_Current_Linear_Turbine&oldid=681618"

489

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

490

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

491

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

492

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

493

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

495

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed

496

Geoengineering Downwelling Ocean Currents: A Cost Assessment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Downwelling ocean currents carry carbon into the deep ocean (the solubility pump), and play a ... weakening of the NADW is modification of downwelling ocean currents, by an increase in carbon concentration or ......

S. Zhou; P. C. Flynn

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Legal Implications of CO2 Ocean Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, ocean currents may prevent stagnation or accumulatioLegal Implications of CO2 Ocean Storage Jason Heinrich Working Paper Laboratory for Energy #12;Introduction Ocean sequestration of CO2, a potentially significant technique to be used

498

Ocean currents help explain population genetic structure  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...original work is properly cited. Ocean currents help explain population genetic...larval dispersal estimates based on ocean current observations, we demonstrate...Data-assimilated models of ocean currents for the study region were produced...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Configuration of a Southern Ocean Storm Track  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Diagnostics of ocean variability that reflect and influence local transport properties of heat and chemical species vary by an order of magnitude along the Southern Ocean’s Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Topographic “hotspots” are important ...

Tobias Bischoff; Andrew F. Thompson

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Pelagic Polychaetes of the Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean CLAPARtDE,E. 1868. LesPolyc'haetes of the Pacific Ocean KINBERG, J. G. H. 1866.Polyc'kaetes of the Pacific Ocean TREADWELL, A. L. 1906.

Dales, K Phillips

1957-01-01T23:59:59.000Z