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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 – October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Note: Confidence intervals for the following ...

2

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 – October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Note: Confidence intervals for the ...

3

Asymptotic confidence intervals for Poisson regression  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Let (X,Y) be a R^dxN"0-valued random vector where the conditional distribution of Y given X=x is a Poisson distribution with mean m(x). We estimate m by a local polynomial kernel estimate defined by maximizing a localized log-likelihood function. We ... Keywords: 62G08, 62G15, 65H12, Confidence interval, Local polynomial kernel estimate, Poisson regression

Michael Kohler; Adam Krzy?ak

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2000. Projections

5

Curvewise DET confidence regions and pointwise EER confidence intervals using radial  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Curvewise DET confidence regions and pointwise EER confidence intervals using radial sweep methodology to create pointwise confidence intervals for the equal error rate (EER). The EER is the rate or bootstrap methods to estimate the variability in both the DET and the EER. Our radial sweep is based

Schuckers, Michael E.

6

Multiplicative scale uncertainties in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We have investigated how uncertainties in the estimation of the detection efficiency affect the 90% confidence intervals in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals. The study has been conducted for experiments where the number of detected events is large and can be described by a Gaussian probability density function. We also assume the detection efficiency has a Gaussian probability density and study the range of the relative uncertainties $\\sigma_\\epsilon$ between 0 and 30%. We find that the confidence intervals provide proper coverage and increase smoothly and continuously from the intervals that ignore scale uncertainties with a quadratic dependence on $\\sigma_\\epsilon$.

Smith, E S

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Report provides settlement price data for Central Appalachian (CAPP), Western Powder River Basin (PRB), and Eastern CSX Transportation (CSX) coal futures.

Information Center

8

Integrity-directed sequential state estimation: Assessing high reliability requirements via safe confidence intervals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study deals with the problem of dynamic state estimation of continuous-time systems from discrete-time measurements in the context of high-integrity applications. The objective of integrity-directed estimation is to provide confidence intervals ... Keywords: Bayesian framework, Dynamic estimation, Dynamic multiple-model estimator, Fault detection, Gaussian mixture, Integrity, Kalman filter, Kullback-Leibler distance, Markov chains, Odometry, Overbounding, Rail navigation, Robust estimation, Safe navigation systems

Olivier Bilenne

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

NYMEX Futures Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

NYMEX Futures Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, All Others in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product/ Contract 12/10/13 12/11/13 12/12/13 12/13/13 12/16/13 12/17/13 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 98.51 97.44 97.5 96.6 97.48 97.22 1983-2013 Contract 2 98.66 97.72 97.82 96.93 97.77 97.47 1985-2013 Contract 3 98.58 97.72 97.77 96.91 97.7 97.36 1983-2013 Contract 4 98.19 97.39 97.42 96.55 97.28 96.92 1985-2013 Reformulated Regular Gasoline (New York Harbor) Contract 1 1985-2006 Contract 2 1994-2006 Contract 3 1984-2006 Contract 4 1994-2006 RBOB Regular Gasoline (New York Harbor)

10

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics of various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization techniques. Results: For the prostate and head/neck cases studied, the pass rates obtained with gamma analysis of high density dose planes were 2%-5% higher than respective %/DTA composite analysis on average (ranging as high as 11%), depending on tolerances and normalization. Meanwhile, the pass rates obtained via local normalization were 2%-12% lower than with global maximum normalization on average (ranging as high as 27%), depending on tolerances and calculation method. Repositioning of simulated low-density sampled grids leads to a distribution of possible pass rates for each measured/calculated dose plane pair. These distributions can be predicted using a binomial distribution in order to establish confidence intervals that depend largely on the sampling density and the observed pass rate (i.e., the degree of difference between measured and calculated dose). These results can be extended to apply to 3D arrays of detectors, as well. Conclusions: Dose plane QA analysis can be greatly affected by choice of calculation metric and user-defined parameters, and so all pass rates should be reported with a complete description of calculation method. Pass rates for low-density arrays are subject to statistical uncertainty (vs. the high-density pass rate), but these sampling errors can be modeled using statistical confidence intervals derived from the sampled pass rate and detector density. Thus, pass rates for low-density array measurements should be accompanied by a confidence interval indicating the uncertainty of each pass rate.

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher; Kumaraswamy, Lalith; Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States) and Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Canis Lupus LLC, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Molecular and Cellular Biophysics and Biochemistry, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States) and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214 (United States)

2011-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

11

Sieve-based confidence intervals and bands for L\\'{e}vy densities  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The estimation of the L\\'{e}vy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a L\\'{e}vy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the statistical properties of which can be assessed when the frequency and time horizon of observations increase to infinity at suitable rates. Nonparametric estimators for the L\\'{e}vy density based on Grenander's method of sieves was proposed in Figueroa-L\\'{o}pez [IMS Lecture Notes 57 (2009) 117--146]. In this paper, central limit theorems for these sieve estimators, both pointwise and uniform on an interval away from the origin, are obtained, leading to pointwise confidence intervals and bands for the L\\'{e}vy density. In the pointwise case, our estimators converge to the L\\'{e}vy density at a rate that is arbitrarily close to the rate of the minimax risk of estimation on smooth L\\'{e}vy densities. In the case of uniform bands and discrete regular sampling, our results are consis...

Figueroa-López, José E

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

NYMEX Coal Futures - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

NYMEX Coal Futures Near-Month Contract Final Settlement Price 2013 NYMEX Coal Futures Near-Month Contract Final Settlement Price 2013 Data as of: December 13, 2013 | Release Date: December 16, 2013 | Next Release Date: December 30, 2013 U.S. coal exports, chiefly Central Appalachian bituminous, make up a significant percentage of the world export market and are a relevant factor in world coal prices. Because coal is a bulk commodity, transportation is an important aspect of its price and availability. In response to dramatic changes in both electric and coal industry practices, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) after conferring with coal producers and consumers, sought and received regulatory approval to offer coal futures and options contracts. On July 12, 2001, NYMEX began trading Central Appalachian Coal futures under the QL symbol.

13

NYMEX Central Appalachian coal futures near-month contract final...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Release Date: January 7, 2013 Next Release Date: January 2014 NYMEX Central Appalachian coal futures near-month contract final settlement price history Data as of 12312012....

14

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series toAEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case” where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this “hybrid” NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notonly a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 –of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-priceadvanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $2.3/MMBtu NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this “hybrid” NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notcomparison with fixed- price renewable generation (becauseonly a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 –

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Confidence Intervals of a Climatic Signal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to interpret climate statistics correctly, the definitions of climate change, signal-to-noise ratio and statistical significance are clarified.

Yoshikazu Hayashi

1982-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

RECIPE : REGression Confidence Intervals for PErcentiles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... PDF (Portable Document Format) and requires Adobe Acrobat to be loaded to allow ... is recommended that you install the reader as a plug-in rather ...

22

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices Figure 1 focuses on the historythe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the history

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the historynatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

longer-term market-based forecasts that can be used to more-AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 – can beAEO 2006 reference case forecast to conduct a 25-yearAEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by open circlesAEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceof AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsoof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Confidence Regions and Pooling—Some Statistics for Weather Experimentation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of confidence intervals for assessing the results of weather modification experiments is demonstrated and is shown to be more informative than tests of significance. Multivariate tests, confidence regions, and simultaneous confidence ...

K. Ruben Gabriel

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Waste Confidence Discussion  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Long-Term Long-Term Waste Confidence Update Christine Pineda Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission National Transportation Stakeholders Forum May 2012 ♦ Knoxville, Tennessee Long-Term Update Draft Report, "Background and Preliminary Assumptions for an Environmental Impact Statement- Long-Term Waste Confidence Update" Elements of the Long-Term Update - Draft environmental impact statement - Draft Waste Confidence Decision - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule based on the EIS and Decision, if applicable 2 Overview of Draft Report Background and assumptions report is first step in process. Basic topics in the report are:

46

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

47

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

48

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. The recent decline in prices seems to be more the result of an unraveling of speculative pressures than a change in underlying fundamentals. Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, concern over the adequacy of distillate supplies, and expectations of Iraqi supply interruptions. But Mideast tensions seemed to ease in December and the market appeared to perceive a quick return of Iraqi crude oil supplies at full capacity. Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi

49

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Spot WTI prices broke $35 and even $36 per barrel in November as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources failed to find much realization in actual stocks data. The idea that stocks are still languishing at below-normal levels is particularly persuasive when one views current levels (for key consuming regions) relative to "normal" values which account for the long-term trend in OECD stocks. We believe that monthly average WTI prices will stay around $30 per barrel for the first part of 2001. This is a noticeable upward shift in our projected average prices from even a month ago. The shift reflects greater emphasis on the lack of stock builds and less emphasis on the assumption that supply from OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers may be exceeding demand by 1-2

50

Point-Wise Confidence Interval Estimation by Neural Networks: A ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As the human errors cannot be accurately captured (or corrected) by a neural network, it is considered that the values in the map are reasonably accurate and  ...

51

Confidence Intervals for the Hyperparameters in Structural Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gerais, 31270-901 - Belo Horizonte - MG, Brazil E-mail: {glauraf,thiagors,jujujar,fcruz}@ufmg.br November. The performance of this procedure is empirically obtained through Monte Carlo simulations implemented in Ox. Asymp

Cruz, Frederico

52

Estimating Realistic Confidence Intervals for the Activation Energy Determined from  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for the Simul- taneous Measurement of Calorimetric and Rheological Evolutions", Rev. Sci. Instr., 79, 023905-008-0273-4 Titomanlio, G., et al., "On the Simulation of Thermoplastic Injection Moulding Process. 2 Relevance Lags during Poly- mer Solidification", Thermochim. Acta, 413, 101­110 (2004), DOI:10.1016/j.tca.2003

Utah, University of

53

Natural Gas Spot Prices: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Spot prices at the Henry Hub traded at a midpoint of $6.91 per MMBtu on Wednesday. This is the first time the price has been below $7.00 since December 1, ...

54

Filters and Approximate Confidence Intervals for Interpreting Rainfall Anomaly indices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rainfall anomaly index (RAI) has been widely used to study variations over time in Sahelian rainfall. Its interpretation is often complicated by excessive missing data and changes in station network, both of which prevent a precise ...

L. Bärring; M. Hulme

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Pledges by Saudi Arabia/OPEC to offset a longer term Iraqi disruption added to a market sense of oversupply. Relatively mild weather in Europe allowed distillate ...

56

WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices had been running higher than supply/demand fundamentals would have indicated throughout the fall months as a result of rising Mideast tensions, ...

57

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

58

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

59

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

60

Waste Confidence Discussion | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Waste Confidence Discussion Waste Confidence Discussion Long-Term Waste Confidence Update. Waste Confidence Discussion More Documents & Publications Status Update: Extended Storage...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

62

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

63

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

64

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

65

2011 Special Issue: Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, ... Keywords: Confidence measures, Conformal Prediction, Neural networks, Prediction intervals, Regression, Total Electron Content

Harris Papadopoulos; Haris Haralambous

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

From: Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Berkeley Lab (LBNL) Subject: Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices Date: January 4, 2010 1. Introduction, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better

67

Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

Axelrod, M

2005-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

68

Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations  

SciTech Connect

The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luginbuhl, D.R. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

1998-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Building Trust & Confidence in Voting Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Building Trust & Confidence in Voting Systems, Dec 10-11, 2003. Dec 10, 2003. ... Openness & Security David Dill Stanford University. ...

2012-11-07T23:59:59.000Z

70

HERS experiment cause for confidence.  

SciTech Connect

At last April's Affordable Comfort conference, I conducted a small HERS (home energy ratings) experiment to examine the relative variability of ratings in new and older homes. The experiment grew out of discussions with Oak Ridge National Laboratory Senior Researcher Mark Ternes and EPA Energy Specialist Mia South about how good the HERS tools currently employed in the new homes market are at identifying cost-effective conservation measures in existing homes. Older homes present challenges for raters that may not generally exist in new construction. These include the absence of blueprints, the inability to interview the builder, the difficulty of identifying the operating efficiency of installed equipment, and different envelope characteristics within the home caused by partial remodels over the years. For precisely these reasons, the need for accurate ratings of older homes is acute. The efficacy of ratings in existing homes hinges on two questions: How accurate are the ratings in existing homes? and, How much does accuracy matter to the selection of conservation measures? A small experiment was organized to test the variability of ratings. Two homes were chosen to represent the very broad spectra that raters can find in the new-construction and existing-home housing stock. The new home in Park Ridge, Illinois, is typical in size and layout of the homes being built in the suburbs around Chicago. This four-bedroom, two-story house with finished basement measures slightly more than 4,000 ft{sup 2}, including the basement. The older home is located in Elgin, Illinois, and was built before 1940, probably sometime in the '20s or '30s. This two-bedroom house has a basement in which the furnace, water heater, clothes washer, and dryer are located. The raters disagreed as to whether the basement should be considered part of the conditioned space. Excluding the basement area, the house measurement approximately 1,000 ft{sup 2}. The rating process included a site visit to measure the homes features, inspection of the blueprints for the new home (none existed for the Elgin home), and a blower door test. After the raters completed their analysis, I examined the effect that the variability of ratings for the Elgin home had on choices for energy conservation measures. Although the sample was small, the results of this experiment are valuable. They may be summarized as follows: First, the ratings that different analysts estimated varied more widely for the older home than they did for the new home. Second, for the older home, the identification of cost-effective energy conservation measures was insensitive to the variation in ratings. Clearly, these findings need to be verified in further experiments. But it is noteworthy that the separate ratings of the new home were in such good agreement, and that cost-effective efficiency recommendations can be arrived at even when divergences exist in the absolute rating value. These findings also suggest that it is appropriate to have confidence in ratings as a tool for identifying cost-effective energy measures in older housing stock.

Cavallo, J. D.; Energy Systems

1999-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Sampling Uncertainty and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For probability forecasts, the Brier score and Brier skill score are commonly used verification measures of forecast accuracy and skill. Using sampling theory, analytical expressions are derived to estimate their sampling uncertainties. The Brier ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz; Tempei Hashino

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Computing confidence intervals on solution costs for stochastic grid generation expansion problems.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A range of core operations and planning problems for the national electrical grid are naturally formulated and solved as stochastic programming problems, which minimize expected costs subject to a range of uncertain outcomes relating to, for example, uncertain demands or generator output. A critical decision issue relating to such stochastic programs is: How many scenarios are required to ensure a specific error bound on the solution cost? Scenarios are the key mechanism used to sample from the uncertainty space, and the number of scenarios drives computational difficultly. We explore this question in the context of a long-term grid generation expansion problem, using a bounding procedure introduced by Mak, Morton, and Wood. We discuss experimental results using problem formulations independently minimizing expected cost and down-side risk. Our results indicate that we can use a surprisingly small number of scenarios to yield tight error bounds in the case of expected cost minimization, which has key practical implications. In contrast, error bounds in the case of risk minimization are significantly larger, suggesting more research is required in this area in order to achieve rigorous solutions for decision makers.

Woodruff, David L..; Watson, Jean-Paul

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Confidence Intervals and Significance Tests for Spherical Data Derived from Feature Tracking  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology is described that improves the efficiency with which statistical estimates of the distribution and mean attributes of dynamical weather systems, such as extratropical cyclones and tropical easterly waves, are derived from ensembles ...

K. I. Hodges

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Other facts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Henry Hub natural gas price and Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 4 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 5 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 6

75

Other facts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 4 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 5 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

76

Improving Point and Interval Estimates of Monotone Functions by Rearrangement  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Suppose that a target function $f_0: \\Bbb{R}^d \\to \\Bbb{R}$ is monotonic, namely, weakly increasing, and an original estimate $\\hat f$ of this target function is available, which is not weakly increasing. Many common estimation methods used in statistics produce such estimates $\\hat f$. We show that these estimates can always be improved with no harm using rearrangement techniques: The rearrangement methods, univariate and multivariate, transform the original estimate to a monotonic estimate $\\hat f^*$, and the resulting estimate is \\textit{closer} to the true curve $f_0$ in common metrics than the original estimate $\\hat f$. The improvement property of the rearrangement also extends to the construction of confidence bands for monotone functions. Let $\\ell$ and $u$ be the lower and upper endpoint functions of a simultaneous confidence interval $[\\ell, u]$ that covers $f_0$ with probability $1-\\alpha$, then the rearranged confidence interval $[\\ell^*, u^*]$, defined by the rearranged lower and upper end-point ...

Chernozhukov, Victor; Galichon, Alfred

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_hh.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

11 - 11 - December 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 5 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX

78

Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect

This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Interval Translation Maps of three intervals reduce to Double Rotations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We show that any interval translation map (ITM) of three intervals can be reduced either to a rotation or a double rotation. As a consequence, the subset of ITMs of finite type in the space of all ITMs of three intervals is open, dense, and full Lebesgue measure. The set of ITMs of infinite type is a Cantor set of zero measure and of Hausdorff dimension less than full.

Volk, Denis

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Recent North Sea successes build confidence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The recent application of underbalanced drilling (UBD) techniques in Shell`s southern North Sea gas fields has provided evidence of the benefits these techniques can deliver compared to a conventional program. In addition, the success of these operations has demonstrated that with the right approach to system design and regulatory compliance within a legislative environment, the techniques developed for land operations can be adapted to mitigate all offshore safety, environmental and operational concerns. Impeccable planning and a team effort resulted in two wells successfully drilled using underbalanced techniques. With confidence in the safety and efficacy of the system, future projects will concentrate on improving efficiency and well productivity.

Nessa, D.O.; Munro, C. [Smedvig Offshore, Aberdeen (United Kingdom)

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Interval judgments and Euclidean centers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We formulated the problem of finding a priority vector from an interval reciprocal matrix as a Euclidean center problem. The interesting result is that this formulation always has a solution and always provides knowledge about the feasible region. The ... Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Euclidean centers, Interval judgments, Linear programming

Ami Arbel; Luis Vargas

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

VARIABLE TIME-INTERVAL GENERATOR  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

This patent relates to a pulse generator and more particularly to a time interval generator wherein the time interval between pulses is precisely determined. The variable time generator comprises two oscillators with one having a variable frequency output and the other a fixed frequency output. A frequency divider is connected to the variable oscillator for dividing its frequency by a selected factor and a counter is used for counting the periods of the fixed oscillator occurring during a cycle of the divided frequency of the variable oscillator. This defines the period of the variable oscillator in terms of that of the fixed oscillator. A circuit is provided for selecting as a time interval a predetermined number of periods of the variable oscillator. The output of the generator consists of a first pulse produced by a trigger circuit at the start of the time interval and a second pulse marking the end of the time interval produced by the same trigger circuit.

Gross, J.E.

1959-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

83

Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_wti.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 - January 2014 January 2013 January 2014 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2013 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2013 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2013 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2013 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 5 2012

84

Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

09 - 09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan

85

Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 - December 2012 January 2011 December 2012 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, May 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 5

86

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4.0 2.75 1997-2012 NGL Composite 12.91 15.20 8.99 11.83 15.12 10.98 2007-2012 Futures Prices Contract 1 7.114 8.899 4.159 4.382 4.03 2.83 1994-2012 Contract 2 7.359 9.014 4.428...

87

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

120313 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 3.871 3.871 3.871 3.853 1997-2013 Futures Prices Contract 1 3.818 3.895 3.895 3.954 3.988 3.976 1994-2013 Contract 2 3.864 3.899 3.899...

88

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

13 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 3.69 3.55 3.47 3.62 3.68 3.87 1997-2013 Futures Prices Contract 1 3.64 3.56 3.50 3.60 3.66 3.87 1994-2013 Contract 2 3.76 3.65 3.57 3.65 3.71...

89

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

3.62 3.43 3.62 3.68 1997-2013 NGL Composite 9.48 9.06 9.57 10.21 2009-2013 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.07 3.81 3.64 3.41 3.62 3.65 1994-2013 Contract 2 4.11 3.82 3.64 3.45 3.70...

90

2011 Special Issue: A just-in-time adaptive classification system based on the intersection of confidence intervals rule  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Classification systems meant to operate in nonstationary environments are requested to adapt when the process generating the observed data changes. A straightforward form of adaptation implementing the instance selection approach suggests releasing the ... Keywords: Adaptive classifiers, Change-detection tests

Cesare Alippi; Giacomo Boracchi; Manuel Roveri

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Frequent-Interval Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu D. Bruce Nothdurft, MSCE, PE, PG SRS Geotechnical Engineering Department Savannah River Nuclear Solutions Alec V. McGillivray, PhD, PE Geotechnical Consultant Brent J. Gutierrez, PhD, PE NPH Engineering Manager, DOE-SR Motivation  The seismic piezocone penetration test (SCPTu) utilized at SRS because it provides rapid and thorough site characterization.  Evaluation of non-linear soil behavior...  detailed stratigraphy  small-strain velocity measurements  large-strain non-seismic measurements  Depth scale disparity  large-strain non-seismic measurements nearly continuous with depth  small-strain velocity measurements over 1 m depth intervals. 2 October 25-26, 2011 DOE NPH Conference

92

High resolution time interval meter  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Method and apparatus are provided for measuring the time interval between two events to a higher resolution than reliability available from conventional circuits and component. An internal clock pulse is provided at a frequency compatible with conventional component operating frequencies for reliable operation. Lumped constant delay circuits are provided for generating outputs at delay intervals corresponding to the desired high resolution. An initiation START pulse is input to generate first high resolution data. A termination STOP pulse is input to generate second high resolution data. Internal counters count at the low frequency internal clock pulse rate between the START and STOP pulses. The first and second high resolution data are logically combined to directly provide high resolution data to one counter and correct the count in the low resolution counter to obtain a high resolution time interval measurement.

Martin, A.D.

1986-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

93

Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning  

SciTech Connect

Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

94

Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

09 09 - December 2010 January 2009 December 2010 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, April 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX

95

The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S{sub 1}). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results.

SUTHERLAND,HERBERT J.; VEERS,PAUL S.

1999-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

96

The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.  

SciTech Connect

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government and law enforcement and also indicate that the level of importance is clearly of a magnitude on the order of other major terrorist event consequences, such as loss of human life and impacts to the economy.

Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

2008-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

97

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty inthe October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis werecharts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange(NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil)and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Information Center

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Point and interval estimation for the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution based on Type-II censored samples  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The maximum likelihood estimators, based on Type-II censored samples, of a two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution are discussed. We propose a simple bias-reduction method to reduce the bias of the maximum likelihood estimators. We also discuss ... Keywords: Asymptotic distribution, Bias-corrected estimator, Confidence interval, Monte Carlo EM-algorithm, Monte Carlo simulation, Probability coverage

H. K. T. Ng; D. Kundu; N. Balakrishnan

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Avoiding nuclear war, Confidence-building measures for crisis stability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Confidence-building measures (CBMs) may offer one way out of the contemporary arms control morass. Instead of focusing on limiting the number and types of weaponry, CBMs are designed to control how, when, where, and why military activities are employed. By clarifying military intentions and regulating the operations of military forces in times of both crisis and calm, CBMs can help diminish the opportunities for war arising from surprise attack or from miscalculation, accident, or failure of communication. This volume assembles CBM experts from government and academia to assess the utility of CBMs in a wide variety of areas. CONTENTS: Foreword; Prologue; Introduction; The World of CBMs; The Accidents Measures Agreement; Avoiding Incidents at Sea; The Stockholm CDE Conference; CBMs in the UN Setting; Soviet Views of CBMs; Beyond the Hotline: Controlling a Nuclear Crisis; CBMs for Stabilizing the Strategic Nuclear Competition; Risk Reduction and Crisis Prevention; An East-West Center for Military Cooperation; The Limits of Confidence.

Borawski, J.; Goodby, J.E.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Specs add confidence in use of wet welding. [Underwater welding  

SciTech Connect

Underwater wet welding can now be utilized with the same confidence as dry welding, provided certain guidelines are followed. A new electrode is discussed that has been delivering exceptionally high quality welds by a diving firm in Houston. With the issuance of the American Welding Society's specifications (ANS/LAWS D3.6-83) much of the confusion surrounding underwater welding should be eliminated. The new specifications establish the levels of quality for underwater welding and gives everyone in the business a common language.

1984-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Multiply Connected Topological Economics, Confidence Relation and Political Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using the similar formulas of the preference relation and the utility function, we propose the confidence relations and the corresponding influence functions that represent various interacting strengths of different families, cliques and systems of organization. Since they can affect products, profit and prices, etc., in an economic system, and are usually independent of economic results, therefore, the system can produce a multiply connected topological economics. If the political economy is an economy chaperoned polity, it will produce consequentially a binary economy. When the changes of the product and the influence are independent one another, they may be a node or saddle point. When the influence function large enough achieves a certain threshold value, it will form a wormhole with loss of capital. Various powers produce usually the economic wormhole and various corruptions.

Yi-Fang Chang

2007-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

103

Interval Data Systems Inc | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Interval Data Systems Inc Interval Data Systems Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name Interval Data Systems Inc Address 135 Beaver Street Place Waltham, Massachusetts Zip 02452 Sector Efficiency Product Efficiency and monitoring solutions for buildings Website http://www.intdatsys.com/ Coordinates 42.384614°, -71.207508° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":42.384614,"lon":-71.207508,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

104

NYMEX Futures Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

History; Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1: 94.80: 95.80: 104.70: 106.54: 106.24: 100.55: 1983-2013: Contract 2:

105

NYMEX Futures Prices - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

History; Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1: 101.48: 97.77: 96.93: 94.32: 93.93: 94.0: 1983-2013: Contract 2:

106

Modeling interval order structures with partially commutative monoids  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Interval order structures are useful tools to model abstract concurrent histories, i.e. sets of equivalent system runs, when system runs are modeled with interval orders. The paper shows how interval order structures can be modeled by partially ...

Ryszard Janicki; Xiang Yin; Nadezhda Zubkova

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

The Priority/Confidence Model as a Framework for Soccer Agents  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We propose the Priority/Confidence model as a reasoning model for agents. Decisions are made according to a confidence measure which is based on the importance of actions (priority) and the satisfaction of a priori preconditions.We implemented the Priority/Confidence ...

Jan Lubbers; Rogier R. Spaans

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Increasing Confidence In Geothermal Heat Pump Design Methods  

SciTech Connect

Sizing the ground heat exchanger is one of the most important tasks in the design of a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system. Undersizing the heat exchanger can result in poor operating efficiency, reduced comfort, and nuisance heat pump lockouts on safety controls, while an oversized heat exchanger increases the installation cost of the system. The cost of ground loop installation may mean the difference between a feasible and an unfeasible project. Thus there are strong incentives to select heat exchanger lengths which allow satisfactory performance under all operating conditions within a feasible project budget. Sizing a ground heat exchanger is not a simple calculation. In the first place, there is usually some uncertainty in the peak block and annual space conditioning loads for the building to be served by the GHPs. The thermal properties of the soil formation may be unknown as well. Drilling logs and core samples can identify the soil type, but handbook values for the thermal properties of soils vary widely. Properly-done short-term on-site tests and data analysis to obtain thermal properties provide more accurate information, but since these tests are expensive they are usually only feasible in large projects. Given the uncertainties inherent in the process, if designers were truly working 'close to the edge' - selecting the absolute minimum heat exchanger length required to meet the predicted loads - one would expect to see more examples of undersized heat exchangers. Indeed there have been a few. However, over the past twenty years GHPs have been installed and successfully operated at thousands of locations all over the world. Conversations with customers and facility managers reveal a high degree of satisfaction with the technology, but studies of projects reveal far more cases of generously sized ground heat exchangers than undersized ones. This indicates that the uncertainties in space conditioning loads and soil properties are covered by a factor of safety. These conservative designs increase the installed cost of GHP systems, limiting their use and applicability. Moreover, as ground heat exchanger sizing methods have improved, they have suggested (and field tests are beginning to verify) that standard bore backfill practices lead to unnecessarily large ground heat exchangers. Growing evidence suggests that in many applications use of sand backfill with a grout plug at the surface, or use of bottom-to-top thermally enhanced grout, may provide groundwater protection equal to current practice at far less cost. Site tests of thermal properties provides more accurate information, but since these tests are expensive they are usually only performed in large projects. Even so, because soil properties can vary over a distance as small as a few feet, the value of these tests is limited. One objective of ongoing research at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is to increase designers confidence in available ground heat exchanger sizing methods that lead to reliable yet cost-effective designs. To this end we have developed research-grade models that address the interactions between buildings, geothermal heat pump systems and ground heat exchangers The first application of these models was at Fort Polk, Louisiana, where the space conditioning systems of over 4,000 homes were replaced with geothermal heat pumps (Shonder and Hughes, 1997; Hughes et. al., 1997). At Fort Polk, the models were calibrated to detailed data from one of the residences. Data on the energy use of the heat pump, combined with inlet and outlet water temperature and flow rate in the ground heat exchangers, allowed us to determine the thermal properties of the soil formation being experienced by the operating GHP system. Outputs from the models provide all the data required by the various commercially-available ground loop sizing programs. Accurate knowledge of both the building loads and the soil properties eliminated the uncertainty normally associated with the design process, and allowed us to compare the predictions of the commercially-available

Shonder, John A [ORNL; Hughes, Patrick [ORNL

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Measurable Maximal Energy and Minimal Time Interval  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The possibility of finding the measurable maximal energy and the minimal time interval is discussed in different quantum aspects. It is found that the linear generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) approach gives a non-physical result. Based on large scale Schwarzshild solution, the quadratic GUP approach is utilized. The calculations are performed at the shortest distance, at which the general relativity is assumed to be a good approximation for the quantum gravity and at larger distances, as well. It is found that both maximal energy and minimal time have the order of the Planck time. Then, the uncertainties in both quantities are accordingly bounded. Some physical insights are addressed. Also, the implications on the physics of early Universe and on quantized mass are outlined. The results are related to the existence of finite cosmological constant and minimum mass (mass quanta).

Eiman Abou El Dahab; Abdel Nasser Tawfik

2014-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

110

Challenging government: institutional arrangements, policy shocks, and no-confidence motions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Our understanding of parliamentary politics suggests that no-confidence motions have a critical place in government continuation, reorganization and termination. More specifically, we know that opposition parties use no-confidence motions as a way of removing the government and potentially inducing early elections. Up until now, we know little about either the causes or the consequences of no-confidence motions. In this dissertation, I first develop a formal model of the conditions under which an opposition party will threaten to propose (and eventually propose) a no-confidence motion in the government. The model provides a number of intuitive observations about the behavior of opposition parties and the reactions of governments to challenges. I develop a competence-based theory where opposition parties signal their perception of the government's competence with no-confidence motions. In the game, opposition parties act both in terms of short-term gains as well as long-term electoral gains. This model provides intuitive answers that help us understand the circumstances under which the opposition will challenge the government. The model also provides empirical expectations regarding the probability that the motion is successful, in addition to its long-term electoral consequences. Next, I test the theoretical propositions regarding the occurrence of noconfidence motions on a cross-sectional time-series data set of all no-confidence motions in a sample of parliamentary democracies in the post-World War II era. Even though successful no-confidence motions are relatively rare, they can have profound consequences on policy outcomes. The next section illustrates these consequences, as I find that having a no-confidence motion proposed against them makes governments more likely to be targeted by other states in international conflicts. In the conclusion I summarize the key findings, present the broad implications for the study of parliamentary decision making, and discuss avenues for future research.

Williams, Laron Kenneth

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/18: Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea  

SciTech Connect

This paper discusses ways in which the navies of both India and Pakistan can cooperate on issues of maritime and naval significance. Although the militaries and navies of the two countries have traditionally seen each other as rivals, international economic developments make cooperation imperative. South Asia requires an approach that can alter the existing hostile images and perceptions. This can be achieved through developing an incremental approach towards confidence building that would allow consistency and help build confidence gradually. The aim is to make confidence building a sustainable activity that would help transform hostile images and build cooperative and nonhostile relationships. This paper proposes a five-step model to suggest what the two navies can do jointly to build confidence, with the ultimate goal of naval arms control. The steps include (1) the Signaling Stage to initiate communication between the two navies, (2) the Warming-Up Stage to build confidence through nonmilitary joint ventures, (3) the Handshake Stage to build confidence between the two navies through military joint ventures, (4) the Problem-Solving Stage to resolve outstanding disputes, and (5) the Final Nod Stage to initiate naval arms control. This model would employ communication, navigation, and remote sensing technologies to achieve success.

SIDDIQA-AGHA,AYESHA

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Brief paper: Near optimal interval observers bundle for uncertain bioreactors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we design an interval observer for the estimation of unmeasured variables of uncertain bioreactors. The observer is based on a bounded error observer, as proposed in [Lemesle, V., & Gouze, J.-L. (2005). Hybrid bounded error observers for ... Keywords: Bounded error observers, Interval observers, Uncertain systems, Wastewater treatment

Marcelo Moisan; Olivier Bernard; Jean-Luc Gouzé

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Efficient Algorithms for Heavy-Tail Analysis under Interval Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Efficient Algorithms for Heavy-Tail Analysis under Interval Uncertainty Vladik Kreinovich1 heavy-tailed distri- butions, i.e., distributions in which (x) decreases as (x) x- . To properly take for computing these ranges. Keywords: heavy-tailed distributions, interval uncertainty, efficient algorithms

Kreinovich, Vladik

114

Thesis: a generic, collaborative framework for interval constraint solving  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper abstracts the contents of a PhD dissertation entitled A Generic, Collaborative Framework for Interval Constraint Solving which has been recently defended. This thesis presents a generic framework for defining and solving interval constraints ... Keywords: constraint, cooperation, indexical, lattice, propagation

Antonio J. Fernández

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

A Generic, Collaborative Framework for Interval Constraint Solving: Thesis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper abstracts the contents of a PhD dissertation entitled A Generic, Collaborative Framework for Interval Constraint Solving which has been recently defended. This thesis presents a generic framework for defining and solving interval constraints ... Keywords: Constraint, cooperation, indexical, lattice, propagation

Antonio J. Fernández

2004-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.  

SciTech Connect

We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

2004-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Confidence building in Northeast Asia: Possible first steps for cooperation on the Korean peninsula  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

International relations are often devoted to establishing agreements that define, control, or regulate issues of potential conflict or dispute. These agreements span a full range of national and international issues from human rights to resource allocations and national security. The scope of these agreements can vary from bilateral arrangements to global treaties or control regimes. In many cases, elements of the agreement are monitored to verify compliance or increase confidence among parties that the terms of the agreement are being met. This article outlines options for cooperation on the Korean peninsula that could build confidence and reduce tension. The role of monitoring technology in helping to implement such agreements is also described.

Vannoni, M.; Biringer, K.

1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

A confidence-based framework for business to consumer (B2C) mobile commerce adoption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) has been considered to be fundamental in determining the acceptance of new technology in the past decades. The two beliefs, ease of use and usefulness, in the model may not, however, fully explain the consumers' ... Keywords: Buying decision making process, Confidence, Mobile commerce adoption, Technology acceptance model

Yuk Kuen Wong; Chao Jung Hsu

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF NUCLEAR TRANSIENTS BY A BAGGED  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in the feedwater system of a nuclear Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). The obtained results indicate that the bagging-fuzzy system for fault detection and isolation in nuclear reactors," Advanced Engineering Informatics, 19 (1A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF NUCLEAR TRANSIENTS BY A BAGGED

120

Improving Posterior Based Confidence Measures in Hybrid HMM/ANN Speech Recognition Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. In this paper, building upon previous work by others [7], we define and investigate a set of confidence measures based on hybrid Hidden Markov Model/Artificial Neural Network (HMM/ANN) acoustic models. All these measures are using the neural network to estimate the local phone posterior probabilities, which are then combined and normalized in different ways. Experimental results will indeed show that the use of an appropriate duration normalization is very important to obtain good estimates of the phone and word confidences. The different measures are evaluated at the phone and word levels on both an isolated word task (PHONEBOOK) and a continuous speech recognition task (BREF). It will be shown that one of those confidence measures is well suited for utterance verification, and that (as one could expect) confidence measures at the word level perform better than those at the phone level. Finally, using the resulting approach on PHONEBOOK to rescore the N-best list is shown to yield a...

Martigny Valais Suisse; Giulia Bernardis; Herve Bourlard

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Foundation for a time interval access control model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new model for representing temporal access control policies is introduced. In this model, temporal authorizations are represented by time attributes associated with both subjects and objects, and a “time interval access graph.” The time ...

Francis B. Afinidad; Timothy E. Levin; Cynthia E. Irvine; Thuy D. Nguyen

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Computer Interval Arithmetic: Definition and Proof of Correct Implementation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A definition is given of computer interval arithmetic suitable for implementation on a digital computer. Some computational properties and simplifications are derived. An ALGOL code segment is proved to be a correct implementation of the definition on ...

Donald I. Good; Ralph L. London

1970-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

CSL Model Checking of Biochemical Networks with Interval Decision Diagrams  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents an Interval Decision Diagram based approach to symbolic CSL model checking of Continuous Time Markov Chains which are derived from stochastic Petri nets. Matrix-vector and vector-matrix multiplication are the major tasks of exact ...

Martin Schwarick; Monika Heiner

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Fuzzy and interval finite element method for heat conduction problem  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Traditional finite element method is a well-established method to solve various problems of science and engineering. Different authors have used various methods to solve governing differential equation of heat conduction problem. In this study, heat conduction in a circular rod has been considered which is made up of two different materials viz. aluminum and copper. In earlier studies parameters in the differential equation have been taken as fixed (crisp) numbers which actually may not. Those parameters are found in general by some measurements or experiments. So the material properties are actually uncertain and may be considered to vary in an interval or as fuzzy and in that case complex interval arithmetic or fuzzy arithmetic has to be considered in the analysis. As such the problem is discretized into finite number of elements which depend on interval/fuzzy parameters. Representation of interval/fuzzy numbers may give the clear picture of uncertainty. Hence interval/fuzzy arithmetic is applied in the finite element method to solve a steady state heat conduction problem. Application of fuzzy finite element method in the said problem gives fuzzy system of linear equations in general. Here new methods have also been proposed to handle such type of fuzzy system of linear equations. Corresponding results are computed and has been reported here.

Sarangam Majumdar; Sukanta Nayak; S. Chakraverty

2012-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

125

Estimating relative confidence of conditional world oil supply and demand equilibrium  

SciTech Connect

This paper draws from the survey by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) of industry representatives and consulting/forecasting organizations on the likely market configuration under two different world oil price scenarios. The pseudo-data approach treats the forecast price and quantity variables from the various forecasts as pooled time-series, cross-sectional data, and applies traditional econometric techniques to estimate supply and demand curves. We focus on estimating US domestic supply and demand curves and respondent-specific shift factors from a subsample of the NPC survey. We find that all respondents in the survey are more confident about demand than supply forecasts. The underlying differences in individual GNP forecasts account for much of the uncertainty in demand for most respondents, but are still 2 to 6 times more confident of demand than supply. 4 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

Boyd, G.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Hochheiser, H.W.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment  

SciTech Connect

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Different Approaches to Forecast Interval Time Series: A Comparison in Finance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An interval time series (ITS) is a time series where each period is described by an interval. In finance, ITS can describe the temporal evolution of the high and low prices of an asset throughout time. These price intervals are related to the concept ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Exponential smoothing, Interval arithmetic, Interval data, Nearest neighbors methods, Vector autoregressive models

Javier Arroyo; Rosa Espínola; Carlos Maté

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Promotion of EFL Student Motivation, Confidence, and Satisfaction Via a Learning Spiral, Peer-Scaffolding, and CMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study presents an EFL English as a Foreign Language instructional model in which peer interaction improves motivation, confidence, satisfaction, and actual performance of students. Researchers used peer interaction for repeated assignments via Computer-Mediated ... Keywords: Actual Performance, Computer Mediated Communication, Confidence, Constructivism, EFL, Instrumental Motivation, Integrative Motivation, Learning Spiral, Peer Interaction, Satisfaction, Scaffolding

Wen-Chi Vivian Wu; Michael Marek; Ling Ling Yen

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

A domain of spacetime intervals in general relativity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Beginning from only a countable dense set of events and the causality relation, it is possible to reconstruct a globally hyperbolic spacetime in a purely order theoretic manner. The ultimate reason for this is that globally hyperbolic spacetimes belong to a category that is equivalent to a special category of domains called interval domains.

Keye Martin; Prakash Panangaden

2004-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

130

Evaluating trustworthiness from past performances: interval-based approaches  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many multi-agent systems, especially in the field of e-commerce, the users have to decide whether they sufficiently trust an agent to achieve a certain goal. To help users to make such decisions, an increasing number of trust systems have been developed. ... Keywords: 00, 60, 68, Distrust, Intervals, Possibility theory, Trust

Jonathan Ben-Naim; Henri Prade

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Interval-valued Soft Constraint Problems , M. S. Pini1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

they may evolve due to market changes; in network traffic analysis, the overwhelming amount of information preference intervals can be useful or necessary are energy trading and network traffic analysis [15], where the data information is usually incomplete or erroneous. In energy trading, costs may be im- precise since

Rossi, Francesca

132

Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia  

SciTech Connect

Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a {open_quotes}Hot Line{close_quotes} in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.

Pregenzer, A.L.

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX) - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Prices are based on ...

134

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX) - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

-No Data Reported; --= Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Notes: Prices are based on ...

135

Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX) - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The natural gas liquids (NGL) composite price is derived from daily Bloomberg spot price data for natural gas liquids at Mont Belvieu, Texas, ...

136

Risk Impact Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report presents a risk impact assessment for extending integrated leak rate test (ILRT) surveillance intervals to 15 years. The assessment demonstrates that on an industry-wide basis there is small risk associated with the extension, provided that the performance bases and defense-in-depth are maintained. There is an obvious benefit in not performing costly, critical-path, time-consuming tests that provide a limited benefit from a risk perspective.

2008-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

137

Confidence building measures at sea:opportunities for India and Pakistan.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sea presents unique possibilities for implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan that are currently not available along the contentious land borders surrounding Jammu and Kashmir. This is due to the nature of maritime issues, the common military culture of naval forces, and a less contentious history of maritime interaction between the two nations. Maritime issues of mutual concern provide a strong foundation for more far-reaching future CBMs on land, while addressing pressing security, economic, and humanitarian needs at sea in the near-term. Although Indian and Pakistani maritime forces currently have stronger opportunities to cooperate with one another than their counterparts on land, reliable mechanisms to alleviate tension or promote operational coordination remain non-existent. Therefore, possible maritime CBMs, as well as pragmatic mechanisms to initiate and sustain cooperation, require serious examination. This report reflects the unique joint research undertaking of two retired Senior Naval Officers from both India and Pakistan, sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the International Security Center at Sandia National Laboratories. Research focuses on technology as a valuable tool to facilitate confidence building between states having a low level of initial trust. Technical CBMs not only increase transparency, but also provide standardized, scientific means of interacting on politically difficult problems. Admirals Vohra and Ansari introduce technology as a mechanism to facilitate consistent forms of cooperation and initiate discussion in the maritime realm. They present technical CBMs capable of being acted upon as well as high-level political recommendations regarding the following issues: (1) Delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan and its relationship to the Sir Creek dispute; (2) Restoration of full shipping links and the security of ports and cargos; (3) Fishing within disputed areas and resolution of issues relating to arrest and repatriation of fishermen from both sides; and (4) Naval and maritime agency interaction and possibilities for cooperation.

Vohra, Ravi Bhushan Rear Admiral (; ); Ansari, Hasan Masood Rear Admiral (; )

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Delay Dependent Exponential Stability for Fuzzy Recurrent Neural Networks with Interval Time-Varying Delay  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the problem of delay-dependent exponential stability for fuzzy recurrent neural networks with interval time-varying delay is investigated. The delay interval has been decomposed into multiple non equidistant subintervals, on these interval ... Keywords: Delay decomposition, Fuzzy recurrent neural networks, Interval time-varying delay, Maximum admissible upper bound (MAUB), Maximum exponential convergent rate (MECR)

R. Chandran; P. Balasubramaniam

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

GeneDistiller—Distilling Candidate Genes from Linkage Intervals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Background: Linkage studies often yield intervals containing several hundred positional candidate genes. Different manual or automatic approaches exist for the determination of the gene most likely to cause the disease. While the manual search is very flexible and takes advantage of the researchers ’ background knowledge and intuition, it may be very cumbersome to collect and study the relevant data. Automatic solutions on the other hand usually focus on certain models, remain ‘‘black boxes’ ’ and do not offer the same degree of flexibility. Methodology: We have developed a web-based application that combines the advantages of both approaches. Information from various data sources such as gene-phenotype associations, gene expression patterns and protein-protein interactions was integrated into a central database. Researchers can select which information for the genes within a candidate interval or for single genes shall be displayed. Genes can also interactively be filtered, sorted and prioritised according to criteria derived from the background knowledge and preconception of the disease under scrutiny. Conclusions: GeneDistiller provides knowledge-driven, fully interactive and intuitive access to multiple data sources. It displays maximum relevant information, while saving the user from drowning in the flood of data. A typical query takes less than two seconds, thus allowing an interactive and explorative approach to the hunt for the candidate gene.

Dominik Seelow; Jana Marie Schwarz; Markus Schuelke

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

The Elusive Universal Post-Mortem Interval Formula  

SciTech Connect

The following manuscript details our initial attempt at developing universal post-mortem interval formulas describing human decomposition. These formulas are empirically derived from data collected over the last 20 years from the University of Tennessee's Anthropology Research Facility, in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Two formulas were developed (surface decomposition and burial decomposition) based on temperature, moisture, and the partial pressure of oxygen, as being three of the four primary drivers for human decomposition. It is hoped that worldwide application of these formulas to environments and situations not readily studied in Tennessee will result in interdisciplinary cooperation between scientists and law enforcement personnel that will allow for future refinements of these models leading to increased accuracy.

Vass, Arpad Alexander [ORNL

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

The Benefits and Challenges of Predictive Interval Forecasts and Verification Graphics for End Users  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two behavioral experiments tested the use of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics by nonexpert end users. Most participants were able to use a simple key to understand a predictive interval graphic, showing a bracket to indicate ...

Susan Joslyn; Lou Nemec; Sonia Savelli

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Extending Sensor Calibration Intervals in Nuclear Power Plants  

SciTech Connect

Currently in the USA, sensor recalibration is required at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in UK, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors which require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors which need it. The US NRC accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This project addresses key issues in advanced recalibration methodologies and provides the science base to enable adoption of best practices for applying online monitoring, resulting in a public domain standardized methodology for sensor calibration interval extension. Research to develop this methodology will focus on three key areas: (1) quantification of uncertainty in modeling techniques used for calibration monitoring, with a particular focus on non-redundant sensor models; (2) accurate determination of acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and (3) the use of virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Shumaker, Brent; Hashemian, Hash

2012-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

143

Experimental optimal maximum-confidence discrimination and optimal unambiguous discrimination of two mixed single-photon states  

SciTech Connect

We present an experimental implementation of optimum measurements for quantum state discrimination. Optimum maximum-confidence discrimination and optimum unambiguous discrimination of two mixed single-photon polarization states were performed. For the latter the states of rank 2 in a four-dimensional Hilbert space are prepared using both path and polarization encoding. Linear optics and single photons from a true single-photon source based on a semiconductor quantum dot are utilized.

Steudle, Gesine A.; Knauer, Sebastian; Herzog, Ulrike; Benson, Oliver [Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, AG Nanooptik, Newtonstrasse 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Stock, Erik; Bimberg, Dieter [Technische Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, Hardenbergstrasse 36, D-10623 Berlin (Germany); Haisler, Vladimir A. [Institute of Semiconductor Physics, Lavrenteva Avenue 13, Novosibirsk RU-630090 (Russian Federation)

2011-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

144

7.2.6. What intervals contain a fixed percentage of the ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Comparisons based on data from one process 7.2.6. What intervals contain a fixed percentage of the population values? ...

2012-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

145

The maximum time interval of time-lapse photography for monitoring construction operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Many construction companies today utilize webcams on their jobsites to monitor and record construction operations. Jobsite monitoring is often limited to outdoor construction operations due to lack of mobility of wired webcams. A wireless webcam may help monitor indoor construction operations with enhanced mobility. The transfer time of sending a photograph from the wireless webcam, however, is slower than that of a wired webcam. It is expected that professionals may have to analyze indoor construction operations with longer interval time-lapse photographs if they want to use a wireless webcam. This research aimed to determine the maximum time interval for time-lapse photos that enables professionals to interpret construction operations and productivity. In order to accomplish the research goal, brickwork of five different construction sites was videotaped. Various interval time-lapse photographs were generated from each video. Worker?s activity in these photographs was examined and graded. The grades in one-second interval photographs were compared with the grades of the same in longer time interval photographs. Error rates in observing longer time-lapse photographs were then obtained and analyzed to find the maximum time interval of time-lapse photography for monitoring construction operations. Research has discovered that the observation error rate increased rapidly until the 60-second interval and its increasing ratio remained constant. This finding can be used to predict a reasonable amount of error rate when observing time-lapse photographs less than 60-second interval. The observation error rate with longer than 60-second interval did not show a constant trend. Thus, the 60-second interval could be considered as the maximum time interval for professionals to interpret construction operations and productivity.

Choi, Ji Won

2004-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

The conjunctive combination of interval-valued belief structures from dependent sources  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To combine belief functions from reliable dependent sources, Denoeux proposed an operator called the cautious conjunctive rule. In this paper, the conjunctive combination of interval-valued belief structures (IBSs) from reliable dependent sources is ... Keywords: Dempster--Shafer theory, Dependent sources, Non-dogmatic interval-valued belief structures, Nonlinear optimization, Trustworthiness evaluation of hospital information system

Chao Fu; Shanlin Yang

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Interval analysis of microcontroller code using abstract interpretation of hardware and software  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Static analysis is often performed on source code where intervals -- possibly the most widely used numeric abstract domain -- have successfully been used as a program abstraction for decades. Binary code on microcontroller platforms, however, is different ... Keywords: abstract interpretation, binary code, embedded systems, interval analysis, static analysis

Jörg Brauer; Thomas Noll; Bastian Schlich

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Convergence Properties of an Interval Probabilistic Approach to System Reliability Estimation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by the values of the corresponding parameters x = x(1), x(2), . . . , x(n) ; for example, for a nuclear reactor, interval analysis, reliability analysis, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, random sets, random intervals of these parameters, the system exhibits certain characteristics y = y(1), y(2), . . . , y(m) ; e.g., for a nuclear

Kreinovich, Vladik

149

Evolutionary algorithms with preference polyhedron for interval multi-objective optimization problems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Multi-objective optimization problems (MOPs) with interval parameters are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing evolutionary optimization methods, however, aim to obtain a set of well-converged and evenly-distributed Pareto-optimal solutions. ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Interaction, Interval, Multi-objective optimization, Preference polyhedron

Dunwei Gong; Jing Sun; Xinfang Ji

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Solving interval multi-objective optimization problems using evolutionary algorithms with preference polyhedron  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) problems with interval parameters are popular and important in real-world applications. Previous evolutionary optimization methods aim to find a set of well-converged and evenly-distributed Pareto-optimal solutions. ... Keywords: evolutionary algorithm, interaction, interval, multi-objective optimization, preference polyhedron

Jing Sun; Dunwei Gong; Xiaoyan Sun

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Development of an interval-valued fuzzy linear-programming method based on infinite ?-cuts for water resources management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An interval-valued fuzzy linear-programming (IVFL) method based on infinite @a-cuts is developed for water resources management in this study. The introduction of interval parameters and interval-valued fuzzy parameters into the objective function and ... Keywords: Agricultural irrigation, Fuzzy linear-programming, Infinite ?-cuts, Interval, Uncertainty, Water resources

H. W. Lu; G. H. Huang; L. He

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Overview of solar-terrestrial physics phenomena for STIP Interval XV (12-21 February 1984) and STIP Interval XVI (20 April-4 May 1984)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A summary of the significant solar-terrestrial events that occurred during STIP Interval XV (12 -21 February 1984) and STIP Interval XVI (20 April - 4 May 1984) is presented. The first period was highlighted by a large relativistic solar-particle event recorded at the earth on 16 February 1984. These particles were associated with a flare on the invisible hemisphere of the sun. The second period was highlighted by a major x-ray flare on 24 April 1984 with an associated geomagnetic distrubance on 25-26 April. This flare was associated with the release of solar neutrons - only the third time such an identification has been made.

Shea, M.A.

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Order-theoretic, topological, categorical redundancies of interval-valued sets, grey sets, vague sets, interval-valued “intuitionistic” sets, “intuitionistic” fuzzy sets and topologies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper demonstrates two meta-mathematical propositions concerning the increasingly popular ''intuitionistic'' (= vague) approaches to fuzzy sets and fuzzy topology, as well as the closely related interval-valued (= grey) sets and interval-valued ... Keywords: Categorical (functorial) isomorphism, Criteria of redundancy, DeMorgan algebras, L-double double fuzzy topology, L-double fuzzy topology, L-double gradation fuzzy topology, L-double topology, L-fuzzy topology, L-topology, Order-isomorphism, Semi-DeMorgan algebras, Semi-polarity

J. Gutiérrez García; S. E. Rodabaugh

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

BAYESIAN CONFIDENCE LIMITS OF ELECTRON SPECTRA OBTAINED THROUGH REGULARIZED INVERSION OF SOLAR HARD X-RAY SPECTRA  

SciTech Connect

Many astrophysical observations are characterized by a single, non-repeatable measurement of a source brightness or intensity, from which we are to construct estimates for the true intensity and its uncertainty. For example, the hard X-ray count spectrum from transient events such as solar flares can be observed only once, and from this single spectrum one must determine the best estimate of the underlying source spectrum I({epsilon}), and hence the form of the responsible electron spectrum F(E). Including statistical uncertainties on the measured count spectrum yields a 'confidence strip' that delineates the boundaries of electron spectra that are consistent with the observed photon spectrum. In this short article, we point out that the expectation values of the source brightness and its variance in a given photon energy bin are in general not (as has been assumed in prior works) equal to n, the number of counts observed in that energy bin. Rather, they depend both on n and on prior knowledge of the overall photon spectrum. Using Bayesian statistics, we provide an explicit procedure and formulas for determining the 'confidence strip' (Bayesian credible region) for F(E), thus providing rigorous bounds on the intensity and shape of the accelerated electron spectrum.

Emslie, A. Gordon [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY 42101 (United States); Massone, Anna Maria, E-mail: emslieg@wku.edu, E-mail: annamaria.massone@cnr.it [CNR-SPIN, Via Dodecaneso 33, I-16146 Genova (Italy)

2012-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

155

Open source model for generating RR intervals in atrial fibrillation and beyond  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract Background Realistic modeling of cardiac inter-beat (RR) intervals is highly desirable for basic research in cardiac electrophysiology, clinical management of heart diseases, and developing signal processing tools ...

Lian, Jie

156

NIBART: A New Interval Based Algebraic Reconstruction Technique for Error Quantification of Emission Tomography Images  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents a new algebraic method for reconstructing emission tomography images. This approach is mostly an interval extension of the conventional SIRT algorithm. One of the main characteristic of our approach is that the reconstructed activity ...

Olivier Strauss; Abdelkabir Lahrech; Agnès Rico; Denis Mariano-Goulart; Benoît Telle

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

The Pentagon-S process: A systematic approach for achieving high confidence in high-consequence products  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a systematic approach for achieving high confidence in major products requiring high reliability for use in high-consequence applications. A high-consequence application is one in which product failure could result in significant loss of life, damage to major systems or to the environment, financial loss, or political repercussions. The application of this process has proven to be of significant benefit in the early identification, verification, and correction of potential product design and manufacturing process failure modes. Early identification and correction of these failures modes and the corresponding controls placed on safety-critical features, ensures product adherence to safety-critical design requirements, and enhances product quality, reliability, and the cost effectiveness of delivered products. Safety-critical features include design features such as materials and dimensions, as well as manufacturing features such as assembly processes, inspections, and testing.

D`Antonio, P.E.; Covan, J.M.; Ekman, M.E.

1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Efficient estimation for semiparametric cure models with interval-censored data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of interval-censored survival data in the presence of a non-negligible cure fraction using semiparametric non-mixture cure models. We propose a spline-based sieve estimation method which overcomes numerical difficulties ... Keywords: 62G20, 62N01, 62N02, Constrained optimization, Cure model, Interval censoring, Semiparametric efficiency, Sieve maximum likelihood estimation, Splines

Tao Hu, Liming Xiang

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Solar-geophysical activity reports for STIP (study of travelling interplanetary phenomena) Interval 15, 12-21 February 1984 ground-level event and STIP Interval 16, 20 April-4 May 1984 Forbush decrease  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Contents include: solar-geophysical activity reports for STIP Interval XV 12-21 February 1984 ground-level event and STIP interval XVI 20 April-4 May 1984 Forbush decrease; overview of solar-terrestrial physics phenomena for STIP interval XV (12-21 February 1984) and STIP interval XVI (20 April-4 May 1984) (solar optical reports, solar radio events, spacecraft observations, cosmic ray observations, ionosphere, geomagnetism).

Coffey, H.E.; Allen, J.H.

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

An improved result on the stability of uncertain T-S fuzzy systems with interval time-varying delay  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper is concerned with the stability of uncertain T-S fuzzy systems with interval time-varying delay. By uniformly dividing the delay interval into multiple segments and constructing an appropriate augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, some ... Keywords: Delay-partitioning, Fuzzy system models, Interval time-varying delay, Linear matrix inequalities (LMIs)

Chen Peng; Min-Rui Fei

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/12: ENTNEA: A Concept for Enhancing Nuclear Transparency for Confidence Building in Northeast Asia  

SciTech Connect

Nuclear energy continues to be a strong and growing component of economic development in Northeast Asia. A broad range of nuclear energy systems already exists across the region and vigorous growth is projected. Associated with these capabilities and plans are various concerns about operational safety, environmental protection, and accumulation of spent fuel and other nuclear materials. We consider cooperative measures that might address these concerns. The confidence building measures suggested here center on the sharing of information to lessen concerns about nuclear activities or to solve technical problems. These activities are encompassed by an Enhanced Nuclear Transparency in Northeast Asia (ENTNEA) concept that would be composed of near-term, information-sharing activities and an eventual regional institution. The near-term activities would address specific concerns and build a tradition of cooperation; examples include radiation measurements for public safety and emergency response, demonstration of safe operations at facilities and in transportation, and material security in the back end of the fuel cycle. Linkages to existing efforts and organizations would be sought to maximize the benefits of cooperation. In the longer term, the new cooperative tradition might evolve into an ENTNEA institution. In institutional form, ENTNEA could combine the near-term activities and new cooperative activities, which might require an institutional basis, for the mutual benefit and security of regional parties.

Nam, Man-Kwon; Shin, Sung-Tack

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Summary of significant solar-initiated events during STIP interval XII  

SciTech Connect

A summary of the significant solar-terrestrial events of STIP Interval XII (April 10-July 1, 1981) is presented. It is shown that the first half of the interval was extremely active, with several of the largest X-ray flares, particle events, and shocks of this solar cycle taking place during April and the first half of May. However, the second half of the interval was characterized by relatively quiet conditions. A detailed examination is presented of several large events which occurred on 10, 24, and 27 April and on 8 and 16 May. It is suggested that the comparison and statistical analysis of the numerous events for which excellent observations are available could provide information on what causes a type II burst to propagate in the interplanetary medium.

Gergely, T.E.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Targeted deletion of the 9p21 noncoding coronary artery disease risk interval in mice  

SciTech Connect

Sequence polymorphisms in a 58kb interval on chromosome 9p21 confer a markedly increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), the leading cause of death worldwide 1,2. The variants have a substantial impact on the epidemiology of CAD and other life?threatening vascular conditions since nearly a quarter of Caucasians are homozygous for risk alleles. However, the risk interval is devoid of protein?coding genes and the mechanism linking the region to CAD risk has remained enigmatic. Here we show that deletion of the orthologous 70kb noncoding interval on mouse chromosome 4 affects cardiac expression of neighboring genes, as well as proliferation properties of vascular cells. Chr4delta70kb/delta70kb mice are viable, but show increased mortality both during development and as adults. Cardiac expression of two genes near the noncoding interval, Cdkn2a and Cdkn2b, is severely reduced in chr4delta70kb/delta70kb mice, indicating that distant-acting gene regulatory functions are located in the noncoding CAD risk interval. Allelespecific expression of Cdkn2b transcripts in heterozygous mice revealed that the deletion affects expression through a cis-acting mechanism. Primary cultures of chr4delta70kb/delta70kb aortic smooth muscle cells exhibited excessive proliferation and diminished senescence, a cellular phenotype consistent with accelerated CAD pathogenesis. Taken together, our results provide direct evidence that the CAD risk interval plays a pivotal role in regulation of cardiac Cdkn2a/b expression and suggest that this region affects CAD progression by altering the dynamics of vascular cell proliferation.

Visel, Axel; Zhu, Yiwen; May, Dalit; Afzal, Veena; Gong, Elaine; Attanasio, Catia; Blow, Matthew J.; Cohen, Jonathan C.; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Efficient Algorithms for the Domination Problems on Interval and Circular-Arc Graphs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract. This paper first presents a unified approach to design efficient algorithms for the weighted domination problem and its three variants, i.e., the weighted independent, connected, and total domination problems, on interval graphs. Given an interval model with endpoints sorted, these algorithms run in time O(n) orO(n log log n) where n is the number of vertices. The results are then extended to solve the same problems on circular-arc graphs in O(n + m) time where m is the number of edges of the input graph.

Maw-shang Chang

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Distribution of Primes and of Interval Prime Pairs Based on $?$ Function  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

$\\Theta$ function is defined based upon Kronecher symbol. In light of the principle of inclusion-exclusion, $\\Theta$ function of sine function is used to denote the distribution of composites and primes. The structure of Goldbach Conjecture has been analyzed, and $\\Xi$ function is brought forward by the linear diophantine equation; by relating to $\\Theta$ function, the interval distribution of composite pairs and prime pairs (i.e. the Goldbach Conjecture) is thus obtained. In the end, Abel's Theorem (Multiplication of Series) is used to discuss the lower limit of the distribution of the interval prime pairs.

Yifang Fan; Zhiyu Li

2010-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

166

Point and prediction interval estimation for electricity markets with machine learning techniques and wavelet transforms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A growing number of countries all over the world are switching over to deregulated or the market structure of electricity sector with a view to enhance productivity, efficiency and to lower the prices. Barring a few cases, the deregulated structure is ... Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bootstraps, Extreme learning machine (ELM), Prediction intervals, Uncertainty, Wavelet transforms

Nitin Anand Shrivastava, Bijaya Ketan Panigrahi

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Relativistic solar particle events during STIP (study of travelling interplanetary phenomena) intervals II and IV  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using spaceship 'Earth' as a detector located at 1 AU, the relativistic solar cosmic ray events of 30 April 1976 and 22 November 1977 are compared to deduce the relativistic solar particle flux anisotropy and pitch angle characteristics in the interplanetary medium. These two ground level events occurred during STIP Interval II and IV respectively - periods of time of coordinated and cooperative scientific efforts.

Shea, M.A.; Smart, D.F.

1982-12-27T23:59:59.000Z

168

Proper Oil Sampling Intervals and Sample Collection Techniques Gasoline/Diesel/Natural Gas Engines  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Proper Oil Sampling Intervals and Sample Collection Techniques Gasoline/Diesel/Natural Gas Engines: · Oil samples can be collected during oil changes. Follow manufacturers recommendations on frequency (hours, mileage, etc) of oil changes. · Capture a sample from the draining oil while the oil is still hot

169

MIE 1.0 - Gas Turbine Maintenance Interval Estimator , Version 1.0  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The EPRI Gas Turbine Maintenance Interval Estimator Version 1.0 (MIE 1.0) is a spreadsheet application that predicts the remaining hot section life of a General Electric heavy-duty gas turbine using General Electric's standard algorithms described in GER-3620K.

2007-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

170

A generalization of the Wiener rational basis functions on infinite intervals, Part II - Numerical investigation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In Part I we introduced the generalized Wiener rational basis functions, and here in Part II we continue our investigation with numerical experiments. Wiener's generalized basis can utilize the fast Fourier transform for integer values of the decay parameter ... Keywords: Fast Fourier transform, Infinite intervals, Spectral methods

Akil C. Narayan; Jan S. Hesthaven

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Exponential instability in the inverse scattering problem on the energy interval  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We consider the inverse scattering problem on the energy interval in three dimensions. We are focused on stability and instability questions for this problem. In particular, we prove an exponential instability estimate which shows optimality of the logarithmic stability result of [Stefanov, 1990] (up to the value of the exponent).

Isaev, Mikhail

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

A review on the design and optimization of interval type-2 fuzzy controllers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A review of the methods used in the design of interval type-2 fuzzy controllers has been considered in this work. The fundamental focus of the work is based on the basic reasons for optimizing type-2 fuzzy controllers for different areas of application. ... Keywords: Bio-inspired methods, Design and optimization, Type-2 fuzzy controllers

Oscar Castillo; Patricia Melin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

A Comparison of Education, Business, and Engineering Undergraduate Students’ Internet Use and their Experience, Confidence, and Competence in Using New Literacies of the Internet  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study explored beginning and advanced pre-service teachers’ Internet use and their experience, confidence, and competence in using new literacies of the Internet. In addition, this study compared the pre-service teachers to same-aged business and engineering students. Through using an online survey, this study recruited 1350 students from the various disciplines. This study conducted comparisons between a) underclassmen across the three majors, b) seniors across the majors, and c) underclassmen and seniors within the majors. This study found that as digital natives, education, business, and engineering students used the Internet frequently. However, they were relatively unfamiliar with using new literacies of the Internet during their high school and university educational experiences. Overall, the three majors’ students were confident but they were not competent in using new literacies of the Internet including locating and evaluating information on the Internet. Comparisons between and within the majors revealed that education underclassmen were less confident and competent than engineering underclassmen peers and senior education students in evaluating information on the Internet. Education seniors were comparable to business and engineering seniors in their confidence and competence in both locating and evaluating information on the Internet. The findings imply that teacher educators need to understand the weaknesses of their pre-service teachers and provide them with appropriate opportunities and training to know how to effectively use and furthermore teach new literacies of the Internet.

Kim, Su Yeon

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Interval Data Analysis with the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM)  

SciTech Connect

Analyzing whole building interval data is an inexpensive but effective way to identify and improve building operations, and ultimately save money. Utilizing the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM) add-in for Microsoft Excel, building operators and managers can begin implementing changes to their Building Automation System (BAS) after trending the interval data. The two data components needed for full analyses are whole building electricity consumption (kW or kWh) and outdoor air temperature (OAT). Using these two pieces of information, a series of plots and charts and be created in ECAM to monitor the buildings performance over time, gain knowledge of how the building is operating, and make adjustments to the BAS to improve efficiency and start saving money.

Taasevigen, Danny J.; Katipamula, Srinivas; Koran, William

2011-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

175

Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX (”X” stands for exogenous/fundamental variable — system load in our study), AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX and Markov regime-switching models to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot prices. We then use them for out-ofsample point and interval forecasting in normal and extremely volatile periods preceding the market crash in winter 2000/2001. We find evidence that (i) non-linear, threshold regime-switching (TAR/TARX) models outperform their linear counterparts, both in point and interval forecasting, and that (ii) an additional GARCH component generally decreases point forecasting efficiency. Interestingly, the former result challenges a number of previously published studies on the failure of non-linear regime-switching models in forecasting.

Adam Misiorek; Stefan Trueck; Rafal Weron

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Turbine-Generator Maintenance Interval Optimization Using a Financial Risk Assessment Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Turbine-generator (T-G) maintenance interval selection is evolving from a time-based and reliability-centered approach to an approach based on financial risk. The new financial-based decision methods seek to reduce each unit's maintenance costs to the lowest level consistent with safe operation, while balancing operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures optimally over the entire plant or system. EPRI's Turbo-X software provides a powerful planning tool for engineers to evaluate specific proposals for ...

2000-11-21T23:59:59.000Z

177

The Diffusion Coefficient For Piecewise Expanding Maps Of The Interval With Metastable States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consider a piecewise smooth expanding map of the interval possessing several invariant subintervals and the same number of ergodic absolutely continuous invariant probability measures (ACIMs). After this system is perturbed to make the subintervals lose their invariance in such a way that there is a unique ACIM, we show how to approximate the diffusion coefficient for an observable of bounded variation by the diffusion coefficient of a related continuous time Markov chain.

Dmitry Dolgopyat; Paul Wright

2010-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

178

Differential properties and attracting sets of a simplest skew product of interval maps  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For a skew product of interval maps with a closed set of periodic points, the dependence of the structure of its {omega}-limit sets on its differential properties is investigated. An example of a map in this class is constructed which has the maximal differentiability properties (within a certain subclass) with respect to the variable x, is C{sup 1}-smooth in the y-variable and has one-dimensional {omega}-limit sets. Theorems are proved that give necessary conditions for one-dimensional {omega}-limit sets to exist. One of them is formulated in terms of the divergence of the series consisting of the values of a function of x; this function is the C{sup 0}-norm of the deviation of the restrictions of the fibre maps to some nondegenerate closed interval from the identity on the same interval. Another theorem is formulated in terms of the properties of the partial derivative with respect to x of the fibre maps. A complete description is given of the {omega}-limit sets of certain class of C{sup 1}-smooth skew products satisfying some natural conditions. Bibliography: 33 titles.

Efremova, Lyudmila S [N. I. Lobachevski State University of Nizhni Novgorod, Nizhnii Novgorod (Russian Federation)

2010-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

179

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/13: Cooperative monitoring for confidence building: A case study of the Sino-Indian border areas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This occasional paper identifies applicable cooperative monitoring techniques and develops models for possible application in the context of the border between China and India. The 1993 and 1996 Sino-Indian agreements on maintaining peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and establishing certain confidence building measures (CBMs), including force reductions and limitation on military exercises along their common border, are used to examine the application of technically based cooperative monitoring in both strengthening the existing terms of the agreements and also enhancing trust. The paper also aims to further the understanding of how and under what conditions technology-based tools can assist in implementing existing agreements on arms control and confidence building. The authors explore how cooperative monitoring techniques can facilitate effective implementation of arms control agreements and CBMS between states and contribute to greater security and stability in bilateral, regional, and global contexts.

SIDHU,WAHEGURU PAL SINGH; YUAN,JING-DONG; BIRINGER,KENT L.

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Prolonged QT interval at onset of acute myocardial infarction in predicting early phase ventricular tachycardia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prospectively assessed time course of changes in ventricular repolarization during acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is reported in 32 patients admitted 2.0 +/- 1.8 (SD) hours after AMI onset. The initial corrected QT interval (QTc) upon hospitalization was longer in the 14 patients developing ventricular tachycardia (VT) within the first 48 hours as compared to QTc in the eight patients with frequent ventricular premature beats (VPBs) and to QTc in the 10 patients with infrequent VPBs. By the fifth day after AMI onset, the QTc shortened significantly only in the VT group, suggesting a greater initial abnormality of repolarization in these patients. All 32 patients had coronary angiography, radionuclide ventriculography, and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy before hospital discharge. Significant discriminating factors related to early phase VT in AMI included initially longer QT and QTc intervals, faster heart rate, higher peak serum levels of creatine kinase, acute anterior infarction, angiographically documented proximal stenosis of the left anterior descending coronary artery, and scintigraphic evidence of hypoperfusion of the interventricular septum. Prior infarction, angina pectoris, hypertension, multivessel coronary artery disease, and depressed left ventricular ejection fraction did not provide discrimination among the three different ventricular arrhythmia AMI groups. Researchers conclude that (1) the QT interval is frequently prolonged early in AMI, (2) the initial transiently prolonged ventricular repolarization facilitates and predicts complex ventricular tachyarrhythmias within the first 48 hours of AMI, (3) jeopardized blood supply to the interventricular septum frequently coexists, and (4) therapeutic enhancement of rapid recovery of the ventricular repolarization process merits investigation for prevention of VT in AMI.

Taylor, G.J.; Crampton, R.S.; Gibson, R.S.; Stebbins, P.T.; Waldman, M.T.; Beller, G.A.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Adaptive non-uniform B-spline dictionaries on a compact interval  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Non-uniform B-spline dictionaries on a compact interval are discussed. For each given partition, dictionaries of B-spline functions for the corresponding spline space are constructed. It is asserted that, by dividing the given partition into subpartitions and joining together the bases for the concomitant subspaces, slightly redundant dictionaries of B-splines functions are obtained. Such dictionaries are proved to span the spline space associated to the given partition. The proposed construction is shown to be potentially useful for the purpose of sparse signal representation. With that goal in mind, spline spaces specially adapted to produce a sparse representation of a given signal are considered.

Rebollo-Neira, Laura

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

renewables can provide price certainty over longer terms. In6 This additiona l level of price discovery in longer-datedreplicate the long-term price stability that renewables can

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOcost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generationwith variable price gas-fired generation that are based

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. This workcoal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally,coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

File:Table for Tip Speed Intervals of Length.pdf | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search File Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » File:Table for Tip Speed Intervals of Length.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:Table for Tip Speed Intervals of Length.pdf Size of this preview: 463 × 599 pixels. Other resolution: 464 × 600 pixels. Full resolution ‎(1,275 × 1,650 pixels, file size: 99 KB, MIME type: application/pdf) File history Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time. Date/Time Thumbnail Dimensions User Comment current 09:37, 3 January 2014 Thumbnail for version as of 09:37, 3 January 2014 1,275 × 1,650 (99 KB) Foteri (Talk | contribs) Category:Wind for Schools Portal CurriculaCategory:Wind for Schools High School Curricula

197

Atomic-beam measurements of helium F-G, F-H, and F-I intervals  

SciTech Connect

The fast-atomic-beam microwave-optical resonance technique has been used to measure the 8F-8G, 8F-8H, 7F-6H, and 7F-7I intervals in helium. The electrostatic fine-structure intervals derived from these measurements and from theoretical values of the magnetic fine structure are 8F-8G, 3898.525(0.041); 8G-8H, 931.34(0.44); 7G-7H, 1359.16(0.11); and 7H-7I, 402.8(4.7) MHz. Additional theoretical work is needed to understand these intervals beyond the 1% level.

Cok, D.R.; Lundeen, S.R.

1981-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Converting 15-Minute Interval Electricity Load Data into Reduced Demand, Energy Reduction and Cash Flow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Whole-building-electric (WBE) 15-minute interval data is an extremely low-cost, easy approach to reap an immediate reduction in energy consumption. With the advance of lower cost Internet based metering technology integrated with TCP/IP Internet communications, equipment costs and installation issues are not the issues as were in the past. The challenge is to be able to interpret the data and then implement actions to correct operational and equipment problems and anomalies. This paper will address the types of data acquisition equipment and systems available and the different components of a data. Lastly, actual graphs of data will be presented to demonstrate how to dissect and analyze a data set and then implement measures that will optimize operations and maintenance of which will effect a reduction in energy costs.

Herrin, D. G.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Temperatures and interval geothermal-gradient determinations from wells in National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska  

SciTech Connect

Temperature and related records from 28 wells in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) although somewhat constrained from accuracy by data gathering methods, extrapolate to undisturbed formation temperatures at specific depths below permafrost, and lead to calculated geothermal graidents between these depths. Tabulation of the results show that extrapolated undisturbed temperatures range from a minimum of 98/sup 0/F (37/sup 0/C) at 4000 feet (1220 m) to a maximum of 420/sup 0/F (216/sup 0/C) at 20,260 feet (6177 m) and that geothermal gradients range from 0.34/sup 0/F/100' (6/sup 0/C/km) between 4470 feet to 7975 feet (Lisburne No. 1) and 3.15/sup 0/F/100' (57/sup 0/C/km) between 6830 feet to 7940 feet (Drew Point No. 1). Essential information needed for extrapolations consists of: time-sequential bottom-hole temperatures during wire-line logging of intermediate and deep intervals of the borehole; the times that circulating drilling fluids had disturbed the formations; and the subsequent times that non-circulating drilling fluids had been in contact with the formation. In several wells presumed near direct measures of rock temperatures recorded from formation fluids recovered by drill stem tests (DST) across thin (approx. 10-20 foot) intervals are made available. We believe that the results approach actual values close enough to serve as approximations of the thermal regimes in appropriate future investigations. Continuous temperature logs obtained at the start and end of final logging operations, conductivity measurements, and relatively long-term measurements of the recovery from disturbance at shallow depths in many of the wells will permit refinements of our values and provide determination of temperatures at other depths. 4 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

Blanchard, D.C.; Tailleur, I.L.

1983-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

200

Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added another set of charts listing the probability of the future realized price exceeding or falling below given price levels (see Figures 1A and 1B for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price probabilities). These charts are also available as spreadsheets allowing users to input their own prices to

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

on speculative positions in 28 commodities, including NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas, NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil, NYMEX New York Harbor Gasoline Blendstock, and NYMEX New York...

202

The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies  

SciTech Connect

Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

2009-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

203

Interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for environmental management under multiple uncertainties  

SciTech Connect

In this study, an interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming (ISIFCIP) approach is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing interval-parameter semi-infinite programming (ISIP) and fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) by incorporating uncertainties expressed as dual uncertainties of functional intervals and multiple uncertainties of distributions with fuzzy-interval admissible probability of violating constraint within a general optimization framework. The binary-variable solutions represent the decisions of waste-management-facility expansion, and the continuous ones are related to decisions of waste-flow allocation. The interval solutions can help decision-makers to obtain multiple decision alternatives, as well as provide bases for further analyses of tradeoffs between waste-management cost and system-failure risk. In the application to the City of Regina, Canada, two scenarios are considered. In Scenario 1, the City's waste-management practices would be based on the existing policy over the next 25 years. The total diversion rate for the residential waste would be approximately 14%. Scenario 2 is associated with a policy for waste minimization and diversion, where 35% diversion of residential waste should be achieved within 15 years, and 50% diversion over 25 years. In this scenario, not only landfill would be expanded, but also CF and MRF would be expanded. Through the scenario analyses, useful decision support for the City's solid-waste managers and decision-makers has been generated. Three special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it is useful for tackling multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, functional intervals, probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations; secondly, it has capability in addressing the temporal variations of the functional intervals; thirdly, it can facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period and multi-option context.

Guo, P., E-mail: guoping@iseis.or [College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 (China); Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.c [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 (China)

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

204

On the regularity of solutions to integral equations with nonsmooth kernels on a union of open intervals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The behaviour of a solution to a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind on a union of open intervals is examined. The kernel of the corresponding integral operator may have diagonal singularities, information about them is given through certain ... Keywords: 45B05, 45D05, 45M05, Boundary singularities, Compact operators, Fredholm integral equation, Smoothness of the solution, Weakly singular kernel

Arvet Pedas; Gennadi Vainikko

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

A Technique for Estimating Recurrence Intervals of Tropical Cyclone-Related High Winds in the Tropics: Results for Guam  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors develop a technique that applies models of the radial profile of the wind in tropical cyclones to historical best-track databases of tropical cyclones, in order to estimate the wind (at 1-h intervals) experienced at any selected ...

John A. Rupp; Mark A. Lander

1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

A novel statistical time-series pattern based interval forecasting strategy for activity durations in workflow systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting workflow activity durations is of great importance to support satisfactory QoS in workflow systems. Traditionally, a workflow system is often designed to facilitate the process automation in a specific application domain where activities ... Keywords: Activity duration, Interval forecasting, Statistical time series, Time-series patterns, Workflow system

Xiao Liu; Zhiwei Ni; Dong Yuan; Yuanchun Jiang; Zhangjun Wu; Jinjun Chen; Yun Yang

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Stable Centered-Difference Schemes, Based on an Unstaggered A Grid, That Eliminate Two-Grid Interval Noise  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of a centered-difference scheme on an unstaggered horizontal grid in time-dependent atmospheric or oceanic models leads to spurious two-grid-interval wave solutions that may appear as small-scale noise and mask the physically significant ...

Sajal K. Kar

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: A highest density region approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a new method of interval estimation for the long run response (or elasticity) parameter from a general linear dynamic model. We employ the bias-corrected bootstrap, in which small sample biases associated with the parameter estimators ... Keywords: ARDL model, Bias-correction, Bootstrapping, Highest density region, Long run elasticity

Jae H. Kim; Iain Fraser; Rob J. Hyndman

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Multi-cluster processor operating only select number of clusters during each phase based on program statistic monitored at predetermined intervals  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

In a processor having multiple clusters which operate in parallel, the number of clusters in use can be varied dynamically. At the start of each program phase, the configuration option for an interval is run to determine the optimal configuration, which is used until the next phase change is detected. The optimum instruction interval is determined by starting with a minimum interval and doubling it until a low stability factor is reached.

Balasubramonian, Rajeev (Sandy, UT); Dwarkadas, Sandhya (Rochester, NY); Albonesi, David (Ithaca, NY)

2009-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

210

Subsurface stratigraphy and petrophysical analysis of the Middle Devonian interval, including the Marcellus Shale, of the central Appalachian basin; northwestern Pennsylvania.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??In the central Appalachian basin, the multiple organic-rich intervals of the Middle Devonian, including the Marcellus Shale, are an emerging large resource play with high… (more)

Yanni, Anne.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Sub-surface stratigraphy and petrophysical analysis of the Middle Devonian Interval of the Central Appalachian Basin; West Virginia and Southwest Pennsylvania.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??In the central Appalachian basin, the Middle Devonian organic-rich shale interval, including the Marcellus Shale, is an important target for natural gas exploration. It has… (more)

Boyce, Matthew L. (Matthew Louis), 1985-

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

ARM: Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)  

DOE Data Explorer (OSTI)

Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

Nitin Bharadwaj; Kevin Widener

213

Brief paper: Delay-dependent robust H? filtering for uncertain discrete-time singular systems with interval time-varying delay  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper focuses on the delay-dependent robust H"~ filtering for uncertain discrete-time singular systems with interval time-varying delay. The uncertainty considered is a convex compact set of polytopic type. The purpose is the design of a linear ... Keywords: Discrete-time singular systems, Interval time-varying delay, Linear matrix inequality, Robust H? filter

Jong Hae Kim

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Energy Consumption Estimation for Room Air-conditioners Using Room Temperature Simulation with One-Minute Intervals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

For the purpose of developing optimized control algorithm for room air-conditioners to ensure their energy efficiency, a short time interval (i.e., one minute) simulation of building thermal performance is necessary because the sampling time interval for room air-conditioner control is one minute in general. This paper studies the short-time interval room air temperature simulation method using the response factor method. Using the simulated room air temperature, an air-conditioner's running time can be known so that its energy consumption can be estimated accurately. In order to verify the simulation accuracy, an actual room equipped with a gas-engine heat pump (GHP) air-conditioning system is studied by both simulation and measurement. The cooling amount produced by the GHP is calculated using measured refrigerant pressure and temperature at condenser and evaporator respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between measured cooling amount and simulated cooling load is 18.9 percent of the average measured value. The profile of simulated room air temperature in both air-conditioned daytime and nighttime without air-conditioning can match the measured room air temperature. With respect to the estimated energy consumption, the profile of simulated energy consumption can match the measured data. The simulation accuracy of room air temperature and energy consumption during the air-conditioner start-up period is not good and needs to be improved in future research. But in general, the verification shows that this energy consumption simulation method is acceptable for evaluating the energy performance of a room air-conditioner, and can also be a useful tool for commissioning room air-conditioners.

Wang, F.; Yoshida, H.; Matsumoto, K.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Follow-up investigations of GPHS motion during heat pulse intervals of reentries from gravity-assist trajectories  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Motion studies of the General Purpose Heat Source Module, GPHS, which were conducted in the heat pulse intervals associated with entries from earth gravity assist trajectories. The APL six-degree-of-freedom reentry program designated TMAGRA6C was used. The objectives of the studies were to (1) determine whether the GPHS module entering the earth's atmosphere from an earth-gravity-assist trajectory has a preferred orientation during the heat pulse of reentry, (2) determine the effect of magnus force on the roll rate and angle of attack of the GPHS during an EGA entry, (3) determine the effect of the magnitude of pitch and roll damping on the GPHS motion.

Sharbaugh, R.C.

1992-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

216

Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is inputted into a flushable routing system during N time intervals  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T.

Faber, Vance (Los Alamos, NM)

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is input into a flushable routing system during N time intervals  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T. 4 figures.

Faber, V.

1994-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

218

Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance Intervals and Associated Carbonate Sediments in Coastal Plain Sequences on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The objectives of the pilot study were to investigate the limitations of the technique for imaging the presence, extent, and boundaries of the low-resistance intervals and associated carbonate sediments.

Cumbest, R. J.

1999-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

219

The existence of multiple positive solutions to boundary value problems of nonlinear delay differential equations with countably many singularities on infinite interval  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we consider the existence of countably many positive solutions to a boundary value problem of a nonlinear delay differential equation with countably many singularities on infinite interval (@f(x^'(t)))^'+a(t)f(t,x(t),x"t)=0,0~x^'(t)=0, ... Keywords: 34B18, 34B40, Boundary value problems, Delay differential equations, Infinite interval, Positive solutions

Yuming Wei; Patricia J. Y. Wong; Weigao Ge

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Power law burst and inter-burst interval distributions in the solar wind: turbulence or dissipative SOC ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We calculate for the first time the probability density functions (PDFs) P of burst energy e, duration T and inter-burst interval tau for a known turbulent system in nature. Bursts in the earth-sun component of the Poynting flux at 1 AU in the solar wind were measured using the MFI and SWE experiments on the NASA WIND spacecraft. We find P(e) and P(T) to be power laws, consistent with self-organised criticality (SOC). We find also a power law form for P(tau) that distinguishes this turbulent cascade from the exponential P(tau) of ideal SOC, but not from some other SOC-like sandpile models. We discuss the implications for the relation between SOC and turbulence.

M. P. Freeman; N. W. Watkins; D. J. Riley

2000-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Preliminary summary of the observations of the 16 February 1984 solar flare (STIP interval XV, 12-21 February 1984)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The solar flare on 16 Feb. 1984 (0900 UT) and the associated photon and particle emissions were perhaps the most interesting solar and interplanetary phenomena during STIP Interval XV, 12 to 21 Feb. 1984. The x-ray and microwave radio emissions, as observed from the Earth, were relatively weak and no optical flare was reported. However, the hard x-ray and low energy gamma-ray observations made with the Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft behind the west limb of the Sun indicate that the flare was, in reality, very intense. There is evidence that the flare was located approx 40 deg behind the west limb of the Sun and hence, for instruments located near the Earth, the most intense parts of the x-ray and microwave radio sources were occulted by the photosphere. However, the effect of occultation on the metric type II, type III, and type IV and decimetric (type DCIM) radio sources appeared to be relatively small. Following the flare, a large increase in the counting rates was recorded by several ground level neutron monitors and energetic particle detectors located in interplanetary space. A preliminary analysis of the 16 Feb. 1984 flare observations follows.

Kane, S.R.; Urbarz, H.W.

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Time-dependent hydrogen and helium pressure profiles in a long, cryogenically cooled tube, pumped at periodic intervals  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Many particle accelerators and colliders throughout the world make use of superconducting magnets to focus highly relativistic beams. These magnets are cooled to [approximately]4.2[degree]K For practical reasons, the beam pipes, encircled by the magnets, also operate at these cryogenic temperatures. This paper presents a theoretical model for determining pressure profiles, in space and time, stemming from either hydrogen or helium gas leak into the cold-bore tube with appendage pumps located at periodic intervals. It is shown that a wave-like pressure gradient propagates from the leak source at a rate which is dependent on the leak magnitude, gas species, speed and location of appendage pumps, and the geometry and effective roughness of the cold-bore tube. Steady-state, linear pressure gradients eventually equilibrate between the appendage pumps in a magnitude commensurate with both the adsorption isotherm of the species and mass flow in the beam pipe. Results are given for a variety of conditions relevant to the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider being constructed at Brookhaven, and a general procedure, with expressions, is provided for the making of similar calculations in other installations.

Hobson, J.P. (National Vacuum Technologies, Inc., Ontario (Canada)); Welch, K.M. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

300-Area VOC Program Slug Test Characterization Results for Selected Test/Depth Intervals Conducted During the Drilling of Well 399-3-21  

SciTech Connect

This report presents brief test descriptions and analysis results for multiple, stress-level slug tests that were performed at selected test/depth intervals within well 399-3-21 as part of the 300-Area volatile organic compound characterization program. The test intervals were characterized as the borehole was advanced to its final drill depth (45.7 m) and before its completion as a monitor-well facility. The primary objective of the slug tests was to provide information pertaining to the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity with depth at this location and to select the final screen-depth interval for the monitor well. This type of characterization information is important for predicting/simulating contaminant migration (i.e., numerical flow/transport modeling) and designing proper monitor-well strategies within this area.

Spane, Frank A.

2007-07-19T23:59:59.000Z

224

Intra-Set Rest Intervals in Hypertrophic Training: Effects on Hypertrophy, Strength, Power, and Myosin Heavy Chain Composition  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intra-set rest intervals (ALT) and traditional resistance (STD) training in hypertrophic resistance training. 22 males (25 +/- 5yrs, 179.71 +/- 5.0cm, 82.1 +/- 10.6kg, 13.6 +/- 4.3% fat, 6.5 +/- 4.5yrs training) were matched according to baseline characteristics and randomly assigned to a STD or ALT 12 week hypertrophic training protocol. Body composition, strength (1RM bench and squat); power (60% 1RM bench and squat); and vertical jump were assessed at baseline, 4, 8, and 12 weeks. Muscle biopsy for myosin heavy chain (MHC) was performed pre and post training. A 2 x 4 (Group x Time) ANOVA was used to assess changes in body composition. A 2 x 4 (Group x Time) ANCOVA covaried by baseline performance measures was used to assess differences in strength and power characteristics. A 2 x 2 (Group x Time) ANCOVA covaried for baseline percentage MHC was used to determine differences pre and post training. Both groups experienced increases in FFM with no differences between groups (62.6 +/- 7.9, 63.4 +/- 7.6, 64.2 +/- 7.4, 64.2 +/- 7.5kg; p>0.05). No time effects were noted in percent fat (13.6 +/- 4.3, 14.1 +/- 4.7, 14.0 +/- 4.6, 14.3 +/- 4.6%fat; p>0.05). Increase in FFM was associated with a decrease in MHCIIX, (ALT, -37.9 +/- 24.1%; STD, -23.4 +/- 23.8%; p = 0.001) and an increase in MHCIIA (ALT, 32.0 +/- 28.8%; STD, 25.4 +/- 29.1%; p = 0.001) with no difference between groups. A significant interaction was observed with the ALT group experiencing greater gains in both 1RM bench (STD 104.1 +/- 27.6, 102.7 +/- 29.0, 107.0 +/- 25.3, 113.2 +/- 27.3; ALT 110.9 +/- 20.1, 117.5 +/- 23.7, 120.8 +/- 22.6, 126 +/- 22.8; p<0.05) and 1RM squat (STD 123.3 +/- 39.3, 139.6 +/- 38.8, 160.2 +/- 36.1, 171.8 +/- 34.5; ALT 130.1 +/- 25.1, 152.6 +/- 24.8, 179.8 +/- 24.5, 193.9 +/- 24.2kg; p<0.05). The ALT group experienced greater gains in power in both the bench (STD 560 +/- 122, 541 +/- 105, 572 +/- 122, 593 +/- 135W; ALT 575 +/- 102, 586 +/- 123, 646 +/- 103, 658 +/- 113W; p<0.05) and vertical jump (STD 1378 +/- 237, 1418 +/- 214, 1452 +/- 210, 1470 +/- 215W; ALT 1389 +/- 179, 1434 +/- 152, 1470 +/- 149, 1537 +/- 150W;p<0.05), with gains in squat power approaching significance (STD 625 +/- 245, 704 +/- 233, 723 +/- 227, 830 +/- 232W; ALT 632 +/- 171, 734 +/- 179, 783 +/- 188, 914 +/- 207W; p<0.10). The use of intra-set rest intervals in programs designed to elicit hypertrophy results in greater gains in strength and power with no significant difference in lean mass or MHC composition after a 12 week resistance training program designed to elicit hypertrophy.

Oliver, Jonathan

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

A Prolonged Time Interval Between Trauma and Prophylactic Radiation Therapy Significantly Increases the Risk of Heterotopic Ossification  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: To ascertain whether the time from injury to prophylactic radiation therapy (RT) influences the rate of heterotopic ossification (HO) after operative treatment of displaced acetabular fractures. Methods and Materials: This is a single-institution, retrospective analysis of patients referred for RT for the prevention of HO. Between January 2000 and January 2009, 585 patients with displaced acetabular fractures were treated surgically followed by RT for HO prevention. We analyzed the effect of time from injury on prevention of HO by RT. In all patients, 700 cGy was prescribed in a single fraction and delivered within 72 hours postsurgery. The patients were stratified into five groups according to time interval (in days) from the date of their accident to the date of RT: Groups A {<=}3, B {<=}7, C {<=}14, D {<=}21, and E >21days. Results: Of the 585 patients with displaced acetabular fractures treated with RT, (18%) 106 patients developed HO within the irradiated field. The risk of HO after RT increased from 10% for RT delivered {<=}3 days to 92% for treatment delivered >21 days after the initial injury. Wilcoxon test showed a significant correlation between the risk of HO and the length of time from injury to RT (p < 0.0001). Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression analysis showed no significant association between all other factors and the risk of HO (race, gender, cause and type of fracture, surgical approach, or the use of indomethacin). Conclusions: Our data suggest that there is higher incidence and risk of HO if prophylactic RT is significantly delayed after a displaced acetabular fracture. Thus, RT should be administered as early as clinically possible after the trauma. Patients undergoing RT >3 weeks from their displaced acetabular fracture should be informed of the higher risk (>90%) of developing HO despite prophylaxis.

Mourad, Waleed F., E-mail: Waleed246@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, NY (Israel); Packianathan, Satyaseelan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Shourbaji, Rania A. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS (United States); Zhang Zhen; Graves, Mathew [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Khan, Majid A. [Department of Radiology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Baird, Michael C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Russell, George [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States); Vijayakumar, Srinivasan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS (United States)

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Gaining Confidence in Distributed Systems Gleb Naumovich,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Massachusetts 01003 (413) 545­2013 fnaumovicjclarkejljog@cs.umass.edu Matthew B. Dwyer Kansas State University, to help pinpoint the cau

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

227

2012 BNL Water Quality Consumer Confidence Report  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

because it comes from one of the two drinking- water wells that produces water naturally low in iron water is produced with pride by the staff of BNL's Water Treatment Facility (WTF) of the Energy & Utilities Division. Producing BNL's finished water are five water- treatment engineers, each having NYSDOH

Ohta, Shigemi

228

STIP symposium on physical interpretation of solar/interplanetary and cometary intervals. Final report, 1 April-30 September 1987. Abstracts only  

SciTech Connect

The study of travelling interplanetary phenomena has continued over a period of years. The STIP (Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena) Symposium on Physical Interpretation of Solar/Interplanetary and Cometary Intervals was held in Huntsville, Alabama, on May 12-15, 1987, the first of these meetings to be held in the United States. The Symposium's objective was to coordinate and disseminate new science gained from the recent solar-terrestrial and cometary intervals which can be used to better understand the linkage of physical events to the Sun's vagaries (flares, coronal holes, eruptive prominences) from their initial detection to their consequence. Fifty-one presentations were made during the four-day period. Abstracts of these reports are included as Appendix A.

Not Available

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Scientific highlights of the Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena (STIP) intervals during the SMY/SMA (Solar Maximum Year/Solar Maximum Analysis)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The STIP Project was instrumental in the coordination of multi-disciplinary ground-and -space-based synoptic observations and analysis of solar/interplanetary events during the period covered by the Solar Maximum Year and Solar Maximum Analysis. Eight STIP Intervals for coordinated studies were conducted during the SMY/SMA period starting with STIP Interval VII (August 1979) and ending with Interval XIV (20 May - 20 July 1982). These results increased our understanding and knowledge of a variety of phenomena including coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their in situ shock wave detections within 1 AU; shock physics; acceleration of particles at variously classified shocks by V x B drift and Fermi mechanisms; magnetic clouds; interplanetary disturbances; x-ray imaging of preflare and flare-generated CMEs, and white light imaging of CMEs during SMY by both spacecraft and ground-based instruments. In addition, scientific progress was made on the tracking of disturbances (initiated by flares, eruptive prominences, and coronal holes) into interplanetary space as well as some of their consequences as observed at 1 AU and throughout the heliosphere.

Dryer, M.; Shea, M.A.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

3-D structural and seismic stratigraphic interpretation of the Guasare-Misoa Interval, VLE 196 Area, Block V, Lamar Field, Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this study, the structure, depositional system, and the seismic stratigraphy of the VLE 196 area, Block V in Lamar Field were interpreted using 3-D seismic data and well logs to characterize structural and depositional settings of the Guasare-Misoa interval. To demonstrate structural settings of the study area 3-D seismic data were interpreted. Three main seismic reflectors, which are the Late Eocene unconformity, Guasare, and La Luna formations, were picked. The most dominant structure in the area is the VLE 400 Fault which was interpreted as a left-lateral strike-slip reverse fault due to its behaviors as a reverse fault in cross sections and as a strike-slip fault in strike sections. The VLE 400 Fault subdivides the VLE 196 area into two main structural blocks, a downthrown block in the western part and the upthrown block in the eastern part of the field where the hydrocarbons were trapped. Several en echelon normal and reverse faults were located along the both sides of the area. The main importance of these faults are that they fractured the La Luna source rock and created migration pathways through the reservoir layers of the Misoa Formation. To interpret depositional system of the Guasare-Misoa interval, tops of the C4 and C5 intervals and associated C4 layers were picked based on well logs and lithofacies maps were prepared. The results of this part of the study show that the sandstones of the Misoa Formation are delta front and fluvial/distributary channel facies of delta system. The net sand thickness map of the C4 interval also exhibits southeast northwest contour patterns reflecting depositional axes in the area. Shaly units of the C4 interval interpreted as potential seals and are of variable thickness and extend. Seismic stratigraphic interpretation of the area shows that the four main seismic facies are dominant which mainly represent the recent sediments, "C" sands of the Misoa Formation, underlying Colon and Mito Juan shales, and basement respectively. Some distributary eroded channel fill structures were also observed within the Misoa Formation, but they were not continuous through the area because of the intensive faulting.

Arzuman, Sadun

2002-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Prediction using Numerical Simulations, A Bayesian Framework for Uncertainty Quantification and its Statistical Challenge  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

production with confidence intervals. SPE 66350, Society of Petroelum Engineers, 2001. SPE Reservoir Sim

New York at Stoney Brook, State University of

232

The Stable non-Gaussian Asset Allocation: A Comparison with the Classical Gaussian Approach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelationof confidence interval for ACF and PACF. The simulations

Tokat, Yesim; Rachev, Svetlozar T.; Schwartz, Eduardo

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

EVALUATION OF SPRING OPERATED RELIEF VALVE MAINTENANCE INTERVALS AND EXTENSION OF MAINTENANCE TIMES USING A WEIBULL ANALYSIS WITH MODIFIED BAYESIAN UPDATING  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Savannah River Site (SRS) spring operated pressure relief valve (SORV) maintenance intervals were evaluated using an approach provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API RP 581) for risk-based inspection technology (RBI). In addition, the impact of extending the inspection schedule was evaluated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The API RP 581 approach is characterized as a Weibull analysis with modified Bayesian updating provided by SRS SORV proof testing experience. Initial Weibull parameter estimates were updated as per SRS's historical proof test records contained in the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD). The API RP 581 methodology was used to estimate the SORV's probability of failing on demand (PFD), and the annual expected risk. The API RP 581 methodology indicates that the current SRS maintenance plan is conservative. Cost savings may be attained in certain mild service applications that present low PFD and overall risk. Current practices are reviewed and recommendations are made for extending inspection intervals. The paper gives an illustration of the inspection costs versus the associated risks by using API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Technology. A cost effective maintenance frequency balancing both financial risk and inspection cost is demonstrated.

Harris, S.; Gross, R.; Mitchell, E.

2011-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

234

Follow-up investigations of GPHS motion during heat pulse intervals of reentries from gravity-assist trajectories. Aerospace Nuclear Safety Program  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Motion studies of the General Purpose Heat Source Module, GPHS, which were conducted in the heat pulse intervals associated with entries from earth gravity assist trajectories. The APL six-degree-of-freedom reentry program designated TMAGRA6C was used. The objectives of the studies were to (1) determine whether the GPHS module entering the earth`s atmosphere from an earth-gravity-assist trajectory has a preferred orientation during the heat pulse of reentry, (2) determine the effect of magnus force on the roll rate and angle of attack of the GPHS during an EGA entry, (3) determine the effect of the magnitude of pitch and roll damping on the GPHS motion.

Sharbaugh, R.C.

1992-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

235

Resource Allocation with Time Intervals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

0 , tj > sj, is assigned such that the resource consumption occurs only ... project requires an amount wj of a limited resource such as labor, workspace or energy.

236

Probabilistic Interval XML EDWARD HUNG  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by the Croucher Foundation Scholarships. The work was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research with the full citation. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored/or a fee. Permissions may be requested from Publications Dept., ACM, Inc., 2 Penn Plaza, Suite 701, New

Hung, Edward

237

Slug Test Characterization Results for Multi-Test/Depth Intervals Conducted During the Drilling of CERCLA Operable Unit OU ZP-1 Wells 299-W11-43, 299-W15-50, and 299-W18-16  

SciTech Connect

The following report presents test descriptions and analysis results for multiple, stress level slug tests that were performed at selected test/depth intervals within three Operable Unit (OU) ZP-1 wells: 299-W11-43 (C4694/Well H), 299-W15-50 (C4302/Well E), and 299-W18-16 (C4303/Well D). These wells are located within south-central region of the Hanford Site 200-West Area (Figure 1.1). The test intervals were characterized as the individual boreholes were advanced to their final drill depths. The primary objective of the hydrologic tests was to provide information pertaining to the areal variability and vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity with depth at these locations within the OU ZP-1 area. This type of characterization information is important for predicting/simulating contaminant migration (i.e., numerical flow/transport modeling) and designing proper monitor well strategies for OU and Waste Management Area locations.

Spane, Frank A.; Newcomer, Darrell R.

2010-06-21T23:59:59.000Z

238

Trimmed Mean Standard Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... the sample size. Tukey and Mclaughlin suggest the following confidence interval for the trimmed mean: where alpha is ...

2013-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

239

XLS - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecast Volatility Expiry Lower Upper Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2014. Note: Confidence interval derived from options market ...

240

unknown title  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

asympTest: an R package for performing parametric statistical tests and confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem

J. -f. Coeurjolly; R. Drouilhet; P. Lafaye De Micheaux; J. -f. Robineau

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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241

Confidence bounds for sampling-based group by estimates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sampling is now a very important data management tool, to such an extent that an interface for database sampling is included in the latest SQL standard. In this article we reconsider in depth what at first may seem like a very simple problem—computing ... Keywords: Approximate query processing, multiple hypothesis testing, sampling

Fei Xu; Christopher Jermaine; Alin Dobra

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Informatively optimal levels of confidence for measurement uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

evolutionary trend to optimization in human activity, one can obviously expect a ..... redundancy, i.e. from 92% to 96%) correspond according to the error function

243

Status Update: Extended Storage and Transportation Waste Confidence  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Presentation made by David W. Pstrak for the NTSF annual meeting held from May 14-16, 2013 in Buffalo, NY.

244

Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is ...

Holly C. Hartmann; Thomas C. Pagano; S. Sorooshian; R. Bales

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Research to understand and predict geopressured reservoir characteristics with confidence  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Department of Energy's Geopressured Geothermal Program has sponsored a series of geoscience studies to resolve key uncertainties in the performance of geopressured reservoirs. The priority areas for research include improving the ability to predict reservoir size and flow capabilities, understanding the role of oil and gas in reservoir depletion and evaluating mechanisms for reservoir pressure maintenance. Long-term production from the Gladys McCall well has provided the basis for most of the current research efforts. The well was shut-in on October 29, 1987, for pressure recovery after producing over 27 million barrels of brine with associated gas. Geologic investigations are evaluating various mechanisms for pressure maintenance in this reservoir, including recharge from adjacent reservoirs or along growth faults, shale dewatering, and laterally overlapping and connected sandstone layers. Compaction studies using shale and sandstone core samples have provided data on the relationship between rock compression and reservoir pressure decline and the correlation to changes in porosity and permeability. The studies support the use of a porosity-coupled reservoir simulation model which has provided an excellent match to the well's production history. 10 refs., 3 figs.

Stiger, S.G.; Prestwich, S.M.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futureshistory of the “first-nearby” (i.e. , closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas

Bolinger, Mark A

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Slug Test Characterization Results for Multi-Test/Depth Intervals Conducted During the Drilling of CERCLA Operable Unit OU ZP-1 Wells 299-W10-33 and 299-W11-48  

SciTech Connect

Slug-test results obtained from single and multiple, stress-level slug tests conducted during drilling and borehole advancement provide detailed hydraulic conductivity information at two Hanford Site Operable Unit (OU) ZP-1 test well locations. The individual test/depth intervals were generally sited to provide hydraulic-property information within the upper ~10 m of the unconfined aquifer (i.e., Ringold Formation, Unit 5). These characterization results complement previous and ongoing drill-and-test characterization programs at surrounding 200-West and -East Area locations (see Figure S.1).

Newcomer, Darrell R.

2007-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

248

Solving discrete minimax problems using interval arithmetic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In our scheme search is performed according to the best-first strategy where the ..... International Dagstuhl Seminar, Dagstuhl Castle, Germany, January 19-24, ...

249

# R commands and output: ## Read the data and save as a ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... c(300,800), type="o", ylab="Series G", xlab="Observation", col="black", main="12 Forecasts and 90% Confidence Intervals") points(Forecast, pch= ...

2012-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

250

Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Summary Short-Term Petroleum. and Natural Gas Outlook. WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices

251

Robust Decision Making using a General Utility Set  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Then, Mary can use (1 ? ?)% confidence interval to set up the error tolerant range [?j, ..... Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21(1):61–72, 1978.

252

ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

focus of this study is to estimate the confidence intervals of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave Experiment (ARESE) solar radiation measurements on...

253

Henry Hub Gulf Coast Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars/Mil. BTUs)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: 10/9/2013: Next Release Date: 10/17/2013: Referring Pages: Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

254

2007 CBECS Large Hospital Building FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs Main FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs Main Report | Methodology | FAQ | List of Tables CBECS 2007 - Release date: August 17, 2012 Jump to: Figure 1 | Figure 2 | Figure 3 | Figure 4 | Figure 5 Figure 1 Number of Large Hospital Buildings and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 2 Total Floorspace and 95% Confidence Intervals in Large Hospital Buildings by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 3 Major Fuel Intensity and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 4 Electricity Intensity and 95% Confidence Intervals in Large Hospital Buildings by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 5 Natural Gas Intensity and 95% Confidence Intervals in Large Hospital Buildings by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Specific questions on this product may be directed to:

255

Increasing Confidence of LC-MS Identifications by Utilizing Ion Mobility Spectrometry  

SciTech Connect

Ion mobility spectrometry in conjunction with liquid chromatography separations and mass spectrometry offers a range of new possibilities for analyzing complex biological samples. To fully utilize the information obtained from these three measurement dimensions, informatics tools based on the accurate mass and time tag methodology were modified to incorporate ion mobility spectrometry drift times for peptides observed in human serum. A reference human serum database was created using 12,139 peptides, tracking the monoisotopic mass, liquid chromatography normalized elution time, and ion mobility spectrometry drift time(s) for each peptide. We demonstrate that the use of three dimensions for peak matching during the peptide identification process resulted in increased numbers of identifications and lower false discovery rates relative to the use of only the mass and normalized elution time dimensions.

Crowell, Kevin L.; Baker, Erin Shammel; Payne, Samuel H.; Ibrahim, Yehia M.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Slysz, Gordon W.; Lamarche, Brian L.; Petyuk, Vladislav A.; Piehowski, Paul D.; Danielson, William F.; Anderson, Gordon A.; Smith, Richard D.

2013-09-05T23:59:59.000Z

256

Multi objective association rule mining with genetic algorithm without specifying minimum support and minimum confidence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Multi objective processing can be leveraged for mining the association rules. This paper discusses the application of multi objective genetic algorithm to association rule mining. We focus our attention especially on association rule mining. This paper ... Keywords: Association rule mining, Data mining, Genetic algorithm, Multi objective

Hamid Reza Qodmanan; Mahdi Nasiri; Behrouz Minaei-Bidgoli

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Effect of map sharing and confidence information in situation-map making  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Motivation -- A situation map that shows the overview of a disaster situation serves as a valuable tool for disaster response teams. It helps them orientate their location and make disaster response decisions. It is, however, a quite complicated ... Keywords: collaboration, disaster response, map sharing, sensemaking, situation awareness, situation mapping

Lucy Gunawan; Hani Alers; Willem-Paul Brinkman; Mark Neerincx

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Geothermal reservoir simulation to enhance confidence in predictions for nuclear waste disposal  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a Challenging Water Dominated Geothermal System: the CerroSixteenth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering,Simulation, Uenotai Geothermal Field, Akita Prefecture,

Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Pruess, Karsten; O'Sullivan, Michael J.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

ThˆeoH: a hybrid, high-confidence statistic that improves on ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... value, in terms of symmetric differences of ... number of random noise components may be ... 2005 CANVAS: clock analysis, visualization, and archiving ...

2006-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

260

A Horizontal Wind and Wind Confidence Algorithm for Doppler Wind Profilers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Boundary layer wind profilers are increasingly being used in applications that require high-quality, rapidly updated winds. An example of this type of application is an airport wind hazard warning system. Wind shear can be a hazard to flight ...

Robert K. Goodrich; Corrinne S. Morse; Larry B. Cornman; Stephen A. Cohn

2002-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Multi-confidence rule acquisition oriented attribute reduction of covering decision systems via combinatorial optimization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rule acquisition is one of the most concerned issues in the study of decision systems including covering decision systems. Usually, a covering decision system is inconsistent, which can lead to the result that some of the rules derived from the system ... Keywords: Attribute reduction, Combinatorial optimization, Covering decision system, Optimal rule, Rule acquisition

Xiao Zhang, Changlin Mei, Degang Chen, Jinhai Li

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

SAFETY MARGINS CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION FOR A PASSIVE RESIDUAL HEAT REMOVAL SYSTEM  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OS Order Statistics BE Best-Estimate NPP Nuclear Power Plant HTR-PM High Temperature Reactor Algorithms for Calibrating Simplified Models of Nuclear Reactor Dynamics. Annals of Nuclear Energy, 31, 1219, Italy enrico.zio@polimi.it 2 INET, Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology Tsinghua University

263

Categorizing Biases in High-Confidence High-Throughput Protein-Protein Interaction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A to serotonin, followed by product and then CoA The S5/S6 loop creates one wall of a narrow canyon- release., Nilges, M., Pannu, N.S., and Read, Shales, D., Shimizu, K., and Shaw, K.J. (1997). The most frequent R

264

Defining a Technical Basis for Confidence in PV Investments - A Pathway to Service Life Prediction (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

Four levels of accelerated test standards for PV modules are described in the context of how the community can most quickly begin using these.

Kurtz, S.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kempe, M.; Bosco, N.; Hacke, P.; Jordan, D.; Miller, D.

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Estimation of Probability Distributions with Confidence Bands  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and now are used somewhat routinely by practitioners. A diverse range of examples involving systems coefficients D = D(x) are used in [17] to study the effects of bioturbation on volcanic ash records in core, handling, etc.). Similar studies involving time dependent anemotaxis (V = V (t)) and emigration

266

Geothermal reservoir simulation to enhance confidence in predictions for nuclear waste disposal  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoirs is useful and necessary in understanding and evaluating reservoir structure and behavior, designing field development, and predicting performance. Models vary in complexity depending on processes considered, heterogeneity, data availability, and study objectives. They are evaluated using computer codes written and tested to study single and multiphase flow and transport under nonisothermal conditions. Many flow and heat transfer processes modeled in geothermal reservoirs are expected to occur in anthropogenic thermal (AT) systems created by geologic disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste. We examine and compare geothermal systems and the AT system expected at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and their modeling. Time frames and spatial scales are similar in both systems, but increased precision is necessary for modeling the AT system, because flow through specific repository locations will affect long-term ability radionuclide retention. Geothermal modeling experience has generated a methodology, used in the AT modeling for Yucca Mountain, yielding good predictive results if sufficient reliable data are available and an experienced modeler is involved. Codes used in geothermal and AT modeling have been tested extensively and successfully on a variety of analytical and laboratory problems.

Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Pruess, Karsten; O'Sullivan, Michael J.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

2002-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

267

Background Data Confidence Bounds Results The other side The Effectiveness of Internet Content Filters  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. · Requires age screen for commercial porn. · Credit card number deemed adequate proof of age. #12;Background

Stark, Philip B.

268

White Paper on High Confidence Technology \\Lambda ShiuKai Chin  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Electric Company, (PG&E). Charles has managed the Energy Training Center in Stockton since 1988. His into training for building inspectors, plan checkers, home energy raters and building consultants. Blueprint that seeks to achieve a 70 percent savings on electric bills. This house is the first house ever built

Chin, Shiu-Kai

269

Model-Based Methodology for Building Confidence in a Dynamic Measuring System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis examines the special case in which a newly developed dynamic measurement system must be characterized when an accepted standard qualification procedure does not yet exist. In order to characterize this type of system, both physical experimentation and computational simulation methods will be used to build trust in this measurement system. This process of establishing credibility will be presented in the form of a proposed methodology. This proposed methodology will utilize verification and validation methods that apply within the simulation community as the foundation for this multi-faceted approach. The methodology will establish the relationships between four key elements: physical experimentation, conceptual modeling, computational simulations, and data processing. The combination of these activities will provide a comprehensive characterization study of the system. In order to illustrate the methodology, a case study was performed on a dynamic force measurement system owned by Sandia National Laboratories. This system was designed to measure the force required to pull a specimen to failure in tension at a user-input velocity. The results of the case study found that there was a significant measurement error occurring as the pull event involved large break loads and high velocities. 100 pull events were recorded using an experimental test assembly. The highest load conditions discovered a force measurement error of over 100%. Using computational simulations, this measurement error was reduced to less than 10%. These simulations were designed to account for the inertial effects that skew the piezoelectric load cells. This thesis displays the raw data and the corrected data for five different pull settings. The simulations designed using the methodology significantly reduced the error in all five pull settings. In addition to the force analysis, the simulations provide insight into the complete system performance. This includes the analysis of the maximum system velocity as well as the analysis of several proposed design changes. The findings suggest that the dynamic measurement system has a maximum velocity of 28 fps, and that this maximum velocity is unaffected by the track length or the mass of the moving carriage.

Reese, Isaac Mark

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

asympTest: an R package for performing parametric statistical tests and confidence  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the central limit theorem J.-F. Coeurjolly1 , R. Drouilhet1 , P. Lafaye de Micheaux1 and J.-F. Robineau2 1

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

271

Statistical semantic and clinician confidence analysis for correcting abbreviations and spelling errors in clinical progress notes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Motivation: Progress notes are narrative summaries about the status of patients during the course of treatment or care. Time and efficiency pressures have ensured clinicians' continued preference for unstructured text over entering data in forms when ... Keywords: Abbreviation expansion, Progress note cleaning, Spelling error correction, Syntagmatic and paradigmatic similarity

Wilson Wong; David Glance

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

New Prototype Safeguards Technology Offers Improved Confidence and Automation for Uranium Enrichment Facilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important requirement for the international safeguards community is the ability to determine the enrichment level of uranium in gas centrifuge enrichment plants and nuclear fuel fabrication facilities. This is essential to ensure that countries with nuclear nonproliferation commitments, such as States Party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, are adhering to their obligations. However, current technologies to verify the uranium enrichment level in gas centrifuge enrichment plants or nuclear fuel fabrication facilities are technically challenging and resource-intensive. NNSA’s Office of Nonproliferation and International Security (NIS) supports the development, testing, and evaluation of future systems that will strengthen and sustain U.S. safeguards and security capabilities—in this case, by automating the monitoring of uranium enrichment in the entire inventory of a fuel fabrication facility. One such system is HEVA—hybrid enrichment verification array. This prototype was developed to provide an automated, nondestructive assay verification technology for uranium hexafluoride (UF6) cylinders at enrichment plants.

Brim, Cornelia P.

2013-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

273

E9: Improving the Confidence Level of TEM-Based Orientation Maps  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A18: Effect of Local Alendronate Delivery on In Vivo Osteogenesis From PCL ... A7: On-the-fly System Design for High Precision/Ultra Fast/Wide Area Fabrication .... C19: Dissolution Behavior of Cu Under Bump Metallization in Ball Grid Array ... High Volume and Fast Turnaround Automated Inline TEM Sample Preparation.

274

Solving Stability Problems on a Superclass of Interval Graphs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

are reviewed in Section 4; in the following we introduce a new one based on ...... Additional hard constraints may derive from mobility requirements (handover).

275

Dynamic CSPs for Interval-Based Temporal Reasoning  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many applications such as planning, scheduling, computational linguistics and computational models for molecular biology involve systems capable of managing qualitative and metric time information. An important issue in designing such systems is the ... Keywords: dynamic arc consistency, planning, scheduling, temporal reasoning

Malek Mouhoub; Jonathan Yip

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Weibull Prediction Intervals for a Future Number of Failures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

,000 stainless steel tubes that conduct the ow of steam. Due to stress and corrosion, the tubes develop cracks over time. Cracks are detected during planned inspections. The cracked tubes are subsequently plugged

277

Weibull Prediction Intervals for a Future Number of Failures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

,000 stainless steel tubes that conduct the flow of steam. Due to stress and corrosion, the tubes develop cracks over time. Cracks are detected during planned inspections. The cracked tubes are subsequently plugged

278

Cultural consensus theory: aggregating continuous responses in a finite interval  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Cultural consensus theory (CCT) consists of cognitive models for aggregating responses of “informants” to test items about some domain of their shared cultural knowledge. This paper develops a CCT model for items requiring bounded numerical ... Keywords: cognitive models, cross-cultural study, cultural Consensus Theory

William H. Batchelder; Alex Strashny; A. Kimball Romney

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Multiple Imputation for Threshold-Crossing Data with Interval Censoring  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A. ‘Incomplete data in event history analysis’, in Trussell,Applications of Event History Analysis, Clarendon Press,covariate in the analysis of a subsequent event. This paper

Fredierick J. Dorey; Roderick J.A. Little; Nathaniel Schenker

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Development of Algorithms for Decision Analysis with Interval Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Multi-criteria decision analysis can be a useful tool in routing out and ranking different alternatives. However, many such analyses involve imprecise information, including estimates of utilities, outcome probabilities and criteria weights. This paper ... Keywords: Decision Analysis, Multi-Linear Programming, Optimisation, Program Efficiency

Mats Danielson; Love Ekenberg

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION OF PIPE NETWORKS BY THE INTERVAL ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the sum of cost of energy used by the compressors, and of the net revenue ... The DC (difference of convex functions approach, see e.g. Horst and Tuy [14]).

282

On Common Intervals with Errors - PUB - Publikationen an der ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oct 23, 2006 ... though at the price of apparently higher problem complexities. Based on ...... Trends in Biochemical Sciences, 25(10):474?479, 2000. .... 2001-03 A Rotamer Library for Protein-Protein Docking Using Energy Calculations and.

283

Gauge Theories on an Interval: Unitarity Without a Higgs Boson  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

breaking without a Higgs boson. Gauge Theories on anscattering amplitude. The Higgs boson is localized at y = ?Rreal scalar ?eld, the Higgs boson. At tree level, the

Csaki, Csaba; Grojean, Christophe; Murayama, Hitoshi; Luigi, Pilo; Terning, John

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Combining interval-based temporal reasoning with general TBoxes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While classical Description Logics (DLs) concentrate on the representation of static conceptual knowledge, recently there is a growing interest in DLs that, additionally, allow to capture the temporal aspects of conceptual knowledge. Such temporal DLs ... Keywords: complexity, description logic, temporal reasoning, tree automata

Carsten Lutz

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Path predicate abstraction by complete interval property checking  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a method to create an abstract model from a set of properties fulfilling a certain completeness criterion. The proposed abstraction can be understood as a path predicate abstraction. As in predicate abstraction, certain concrete ...

Joakim Urdahl; Dominik Stoffel; Jörg Bormann; Markus Wedler; Wolfgang Kunz

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Statistical Analysis of Historical Climate Data Sets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of determining confidence intervals for climatic signals using data sets with spatial and temporal sampling inhomogeneities is solved by a four-step process. First, the actual data set is analysed to determine autoregressive models ...

Curtis D. Mobley; Rudolph W. Preisendorfer

1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Compensation between Model Feedbacks and Curtailment of Climate Sensitivity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spread in climate sensitivity obtained from 12 general circulation model runs used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates a 95% confidence interval of 2.1°–5.5°C, but this reflects compensation ...

Peter Huybers

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Estimating Higher-Order Moments of Nonlinear Time Series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study extends the authors’ earlier work that addresses the importance of bootstrap methods in computing statistical characteristics of meteorological and climatological datasets. Subsampling confidence intervals for the skewness and kurtosis ...

Alexander Gluhovsky; Ernest Agee

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Two Limited-Area Models over Italy and Comparison with ECMWF Forecasts Using a Resampling Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the first systematic limited area model (LAM) precipitation verification work over Italy. A resampling technique was used to provide skill score results along with confidence intervals. Two years of data were used, starting in ...

Christophe Accadia; Stefano Mariani; Marco Casaioli; Alfredo Lavagnini; Antonio Speranza

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

NOAA Technical Report NMFS 114 Structure and Historical Changes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Skates 59 Estimated biomass of the groundfish complex 59 Historical changes in abundance 65 Walleye NMFS NPFMC NWAFC OY SE t Glossary ofAbbreviations biomass confidence intervals confidence limits catch. Results suggest that the biomass of the groundfish complex is characterized by variability rather than

292

Estimation of the parameters of life for Gompertz distribution using progressive first-failure censored data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayes and frequentist estimators are obtained for the two-parameter Gompertz distribution (GD), as well as the reliability and hazard rate functions, using progressive first-failure censoring plan. We have examined Bayes estimates under symmetric and ... Keywords: Bayesian estimator, Confidence intervals, Confidence regions, Gompertz distribution, Maximum likelihood estimator, Progressive first-failure censoring scheme, Symmetric and asymmetric loss functions

Ahmed A. Soliman; Ahmed H. Abd-Ellah; Naser A. Abou-Elheggag; Gamal A. Abd-Elmougod

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

production, as likely reasons for the moderated NYMEX prices. Wellhead Prices Annual Energy Review More Price Data Storage Working natural gas in storage increased to 3,788...

294

Winter (November-March) natural gas futures prices at lowest ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The Henry Hub, in Erath, Louisiana, is the physical delivery location for the NYMEX natural gas futures contract. Sabine Pipeline is the operator of the Henry Hub.

295

The Natural Number of Forward Markets for Electricity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

retailing firms trade wholesale electricity hour by hour fortrade through the exchange to avoid transaction costs. Inactive trading in the NYMEX electricity

Suenaga, Hiroaki; Williams, Jeffrey

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

EIA Report 9/26/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts. Prices. NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/26/2008: Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008: change ...

297

EIA Report 9/13/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts. Prices. NYMEX Futures Prices ... Gulf of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Facts Energy Information Administration: Gulf of ...

298

Central Appalachian Coal Futures Overview  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Central Appalachian Coal Futures Overview In 1996, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) began providing companies in the electric power industry with secure and ...

299

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

generation has increased substantially in Mexico, while the national petroleum company PEMEX has reported declines in natural gas production. Spot Prices NYMEX price declines were...

300

Each Gopher Peavey is like a tree. In September the Editor sows the seed with confidence and hope.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gunderson (LANL), Mike Baker (LANL), Scott Gibbs (LANL), Denny Erickson (LANL), and John Ordaz (DOE/DP/ HQ Yearbook -- 1999xiv AREA OF CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTOR Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Charles (John Waste Facilities Gilbert Montoya Solid Radioactive and Chemical Waste Facilities John Loughead Solid

Reich, Peter B.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Waste, energy and the crisis of confidence: the American people and the history of resource recovery from 1965 to 2001.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??From the mid-1960s until the end of the 1970s, a type of municipal solid waste management known as resource recovery was expected to solve both… (more)

Gumm, Angela Shannon

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

West Texas high school agriscience teachers' knowledge, confidence, and attitudes towards teaching water quantity-related topics.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??As the nations population grows, the water supply is depleting. Since agricultural education plays a large role in many Texas high schools, it is important… (more)

Miller, Pamela Marie

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Coev2Net: a computational framework for boosting confidence in high-throughput protein-protein interaction datasets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving the quality and coverage of the protein interactome is of tantamount importance for biomedical research, particularly given the various sources of uncertainty in high-throughput techniques. We introduce a ...

Hosur, Raghavendra

304

Frequentist estimation of cosmological parameters from theMAXIMA-1 cosmic microwave background anisotropy data  

SciTech Connect

We use a frequentist statistical approach to set confidence intervals on the values of cosmological parameters using the MAXIMA-1 and COBE measurements of the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. We define a Deltachi (2) statistic, simulate the measurements of MAXIMA-1 and COBE, determine the probability distribution of the statistic, and use it and the data to set confidence intervals on several cosmological parameters. We compare the frequentist confidence intervals with Bayesian credible regions. The frequentist and Bayesian approaches give best estimates for the parameters that agree within 15 per cent, and confidence interval widths that agree to within 30 per cent. The results also suggest that a frequentist analysis gives slightly broader confidence intervals than a Bayesian analysis. The frequentist analysis gives values of Omega = 0.89(-0.19)(+0.26), Omega(B) h(2) =0.026(-0.011)(+0.020) and n = 1.02(-0.10)(+0.31), and the Bayesian analysis gives values of Omega = 0.98(-0.19)(+0.14) Omega(B) h(2) =0.029(-0.010)(+0.015), and n = 1.18(-0.23)(+0.10), all at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Abroe, M.E.; Balbi, A.; Borrill, J.; Bunn, E.F.; Hanany, S.; Ferreira, P.G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Lee, A.T.; Olive, K.A.; Rabii, B.; Richards,P.L.; Smoot, G.F.; Stompor, R.; Winant, C.D.; Wu, J.H.P.

2001-11-07T23:59:59.000Z

305

An Evaluation of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan Basins: Part 1: Evaluation of Phase 2 CO{sub 2} Injection Testing in the Deep Saline Gunter Sandstone Reservoir (Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group), Marvin Blan No. 1 Hancock County, Kentucky Part 2: Time-lapse Three-Dimensional Vertical Seismic Profile (3D-VSP) of Sequestration Target Interval with Injected Fluids  

SciTech Connect

Part 1 of this report focuses on results of the western Kentucky carbon storage test, and provides a basis for evaluating injection and storage of supercritical CO{sub 2} in Cambro-Ordovician carbonate reservoirs throughout the U.S. Midcontinent. This test demonstrated that the Cambro- Ordovician Knox Group, including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite in stratigraphic succession from shallowest to deepest, had reservoir properties suitable for supercritical CO{sub 2} storage in a deep saline reservoir hosted in carbonate rocks, and that strata with properties sufficient for long-term confinement of supercritical CO{sub 2} were present in the deep subsurface. Injection testing with brine and CO{sub 2} was completed in two phases. The first phase, a joint project by the Kentucky Geological Survey and the Western Kentucky Carbon Storage Foundation, drilled the Marvin Blan No. 1 carbon storage research well and tested the entire Knox Group section in the open borehole � including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite � at 1152�2255 m, below casing cemented at 1116 m. During Phase 1 injection testing, most of the 297 tonnes of supercritical CO{sub 2} was displaced into porous and permeable sections of the lowermost Beekmantown below 1463 m and Gunter. The wellbore was then temporarily abandoned with a retrievable bridge plug in casing at 1105 m and two downhole pressure-temperature monitoring gauges below the bridge plug pending subsequent testing. Pressure and temperature data were recorded every minute for slightly more than a year, providing a unique record of subsurface reservoir conditions in the Knox. In contrast, Phase 2 testing, this study, tested a mechanically-isolated dolomitic-sandstone interval in the Gunter. Operations in the Phase 2 testing program commenced with retrieval of the bridge plug and long-term pressure gauges, followed by mechanical isolation of the Gunter by plugging the wellbore with cement below the injection zone at 1605.7 m, then cementing a section of a 14-cm casing at 1470.4�1535.6. The resultant 70.1-m test interval at 1535.6�1605.7 m included nearly all of the Gunter sandstone facies. During the Phase 2 injection, 333 tonnes of CO{sub 2} were injected into the thick, lower sand section in the sandy member of the Gunter. Following the completion of testing, the injection zone below casing at 1116 m in the Marvin Blan No. 1 well, and wellbore below 305 m was permanently abandoned with cement plugs and the wellsite reclaimed. The range of most-likely storage capacities found in the Knox in the Marvin Blan No. 1 is 1000 tonnes per surface hectare in the Phase 2 Gunter interval to 8685 tonnes per surface hectare if the entire Knox section were available including the fractured interval near the base of the Copper Ridge. By itself the Gunter lacks sufficient reservoir volume to be considered for CO{sub 2} storage, although it may provide up to 18% of the reservoir volume available in the Knox. Regional extrapolation of CO{sub 2} storage potential based on the results of a single well test can be problematic, although indirect evidence of porosity and permeability can be demonstrated in the form of active saltwater-disposal wells injecting into the Knox. The western Kentucky region suitable for CO{sub 2} storage in the Knox is limited updip, to the east and south, by the depth at which the base of the Maquoketa shale lies above the depth required to ensure storage of CO{sub 2} in its supercritical state and the deepest a commercial well might be drilled for CO{sub 2} storage. The resulting prospective region has an area of approximately 15,600 km{sup 2}, beyond which it is unlikely that suitable Knox reservoirs may be developed. Faults in the subsurface, which serve as conduits for CO{sub 2} migration and compromise sealing strata, may mitigate the area with Knox reservoirs suitable for CO{sub 2} storage. The results of the injection tes

Richard Bowersox; John Hickman; Hannes Leetaru

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Information on a default time : Brownian bridges on a stochastic intervals and enlargement of filtrations.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Dans ce travail de thèse le processus d'information concernant un instant de défaut ? dans un modèle de risque de crédit est décrit par un… (more)

Bedini, Matteo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Analysis of single ion channel data incorporating time-interval omission  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Xm iZ1 Bikðt�lt i for tO0; where Bik(t) is a polynomial in t of degree k with coefficients Cikr , so Bikðt� Z Xk rZ0 Cikrtr : The coefficients Cikr are nO!nO-matrices. Proof. The proof is by induction over{zfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl} ð�� ! Clt i Xk rZ0 Cikr Xt t0Z0 t0r |fflfflffl{zfflfflffl} ð��� ! : If the terms (�) and (��

Timmer, Jens

308

Decision Making under Interval and Fuzzy Uncertainty: Towards an Operational Approach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

,2 , Oleg H. Huseynov1 , and Vladik Kreinovich3 1 Department of Computer-Aided Control Systems Azerbaijan State Oil Academy, Baku, Azerbaijan raliev@asoa.edu.az, oleg huseynov@yahoo.com 2 Azerbaijan Association of "Zadeh's Legacy", Baku, Azerbaijan 3 Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso El

Kreinovich, Vladik

309

Calibration Monitoring for Sensor Calibration Interval Extension: Gaps in the Current Science Base  

SciTech Connect

Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. International application of calibration monitoring has shown that sensors may operate for longer periods within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. Online monitoring (OLM) can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of OLM for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This paper summarizes a recent state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and OLM algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several technical needs were identified, including an understanding of the impacts of sensor degradation on measurements for both conventional and emerging sensors; the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

Coble, Jamie B.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

2012-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

310

Time, speed and perception : intervals in the representation of architectural space  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Although the notion of "space" in architecture is a relatively contemporary one, this research looks at the difference between the conception and representation of space and the actual material reality. With contemporary ...

Okamoto, Hiroshi, 1968-

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

The Econometric Analysis of Interval-valued Data and Adaptive Regression Splines  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

each knot, while ours is B-splines, which is more tractableon polynomial splines (B- splines as a special case) hasspline functions known as B-spline. Theoretically, a linear

Lin, Wei

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Temporal analysis of clusters of supermarket customers: conventional versus interval set approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temporal data mining is the application of data mining techniques to data that takes the time dimension into account. This paper studies changes in cluster characteristics of supermarket customers over a 24 week period. Such an analysis can be useful ... Keywords: loyalty, modified kohonen SOM, rough set theory, temporal data mining

Pawan Lingras; Mofreh Hogo; Miroslav Snorek; Chad West

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Interpolation and Profile Correction (IPC) Method for Shortwave Radiative Transfer in Spectral Intervals of Gaseous Absorption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new interpolation and profile correction (IPC) method for radiance/flux calculations in gaseous absorption bands is presented. The IPC method is designed to allow an arbitrary spectral resolution including monochromatic mode. It features a ...

Alexei I. Lyapustin

2003-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Improved power source for doubling the exchange time interval of LLC.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This LDRD project attempts to use novel electrochemical techniques to understand the reaction mechanism that limits the discharge reaction of lithium CF{sub x} chemistry. If this advanced component development and exploratory investigations efforts are successful we will have a High Energy Density Li Primary Battery Technology with the capability to double the run time in the same volume, or provide the same energy in a much smaller volume. These achievements would be a substantial improvement over commercial Li/Thionyl chloride battery technology. The Li(CF{sub x}){sub n} chemistry has the highest theoretical energy (and capacity) and hence very attractive for long life battery applications. However, the practical open circuit voltage (OCV) is only 3.2 V which is {approx}1.3 V lower than the thermodynamic cell voltage (for an in depth explanation of the voltage depression refer to 'Introduction'). The presence of intermediate has been invoked to explain the lower OCV of the cell. Due to the reduction in cell voltage the cell out put is reduced by {approx}40%. To account for the initial voltage loss a mechanism has been proposed which involves the formation of a ternary compound (like C(LiF){sub x}). But neither its presence nor its nature has been confirmed. Our work will seek to develop understanding of the voltage depression with a goal to produce a primary battery with improved properties that will have significant impact in furthering advancements.

Nagasubramanian, Ganesan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

The Econometric Analysis of Interval-valued Data and Adaptive Regression Splines  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Number of Trades . . . . ACF and PACF for Number ofand Figure 3.2b, we draw the ACF and PACF for the number ofthe tenth-period lag, and ACF decays to zero gradually. The

Lin, Wei

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Monitoring Tropical-Cyclone Intensity Using Environmental Wind Fields Derived from Short-Interval Satellite Images  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rapid-scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 have been used to derive high-resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic ...

Edward Rodgers; R. Cecil Gentry

1983-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Improved power source for doubling the exchange time interval of LLC.  

SciTech Connect

This LDRD project attempts to use novel electrochemical techniques to understand the reaction mechanism that limits the discharge reaction of lithium CF{sub x} chemistry. If this advanced component development and exploratory investigations efforts are successful we will have a High Energy Density Li Primary Battery Technology with the capability to double the run time in the same volume, or provide the same energy in a much smaller volume. These achievements would be a substantial improvement over commercial Li/Thionyl chloride battery technology. The Li(CF{sub x}){sub n} chemistry has the highest theoretical energy (and capacity) and hence very attractive for long life battery applications. However, the practical open circuit voltage (OCV) is only 3.2 V which is {approx}1.3 V lower than the thermodynamic cell voltage (for an in depth explanation of the voltage depression refer to 'Introduction'). The presence of intermediate has been invoked to explain the lower OCV of the cell. Due to the reduction in cell voltage the cell out put is reduced by {approx}40%. To account for the initial voltage loss a mechanism has been proposed which involves the formation of a ternary compound (like C(LiF){sub x}). But neither its presence nor its nature has been confirmed. Our work will seek to develop understanding of the voltage depression with a goal to produce a primary battery with improved properties that will have significant impact in furthering advancements.

Nagasubramanian, Ganesan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Fluctuation studies in the infinite interval matrix representations of operator products and their decompositions  

SciTech Connect

In this work a study on finite dimensional matrix approximations to products of quantum mechanical operators is conducted. It is emphasized that the matrix representation of the product of two operators is equal to the product of the matrix representation of each of the operators when all the fluctuation terms are ignored. The calculation of the elements of the matrices corresponding to the matrix representation of various operators, based on three terms recursive relation is defined. Finally it is shown that the approximation quality depends on the choice of higher values of n, namely the dimension of Hilbert space.

Baykara, N. A.; Guervit, Ercan; Demiralp, Metin [Marmara University, Department of Mathematics, Goeztepe, 34722, Istanbul (Turkey); Istanbul Technical University, Informatics Institute, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul (Turkey)

2012-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

319

A Review of Sensor Calibration Monitoring for Calibration Interval Extension in Nuclear Power Plants  

SciTech Connect

Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in United Kingdom, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This report presents a state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and online monitoring algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several needs are identified, including the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; accurate determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity. Understanding the degradation of sensors and the impact of this degradation on signals is key to developing technical basis to support acceptance criteria and set point decisions, particularly for advanced sensors which do not yet have a cumulative history of operating performance.

Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

2012-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

320

The Dark Side of mSUGRA  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) to distinguish them from the related concept from Frequentist Statistics called a “confidence interval”. Usage of the term “credible interval” is not common in High Energy Physics, however, and we will stick to “confidence region”. – 9 – 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0... measurement, we are now in a position to define the likelihood of the set of all measurements or observables, taken together. We are required to calculate the joint – 7 – (total) likelihood L of all the measurements given the truth, i.e. in the notation of Eq...

Allanach, B C; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

May 15, 2012, Federal Technical Capability Program Face to Face Meeting - Business Case for Accreditation Incentives … Challenge the Enterprise to Foster Confidence and Support of TQP Accreditation  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Accreditation Processes Pros Accreditation Processes Pros Cons Discussion NSO - achieve formal recognition of TQP. NSO - takes considerable effort and commitment to establish infrastructure to achieve and maintain. NSO - establishing a well-performing program and then getting the recognition can foster better formality of ops attitudes with site personnel and can lead to suggestions that improve the local and complex TQP. SSO - Obtain external (of site office) evaluation and accreditation of TQP to assure program meets goals of FTCP. Recent (less than 12 months) accreditation seems to meet the requirements of a CDNS review (evidence is SSO 2009 CDNS Review Report). SSO - Resource cost necessary to prepare for

322

The Failure of Confidence Mechanism: Reflections on the 1990’s Social Change Movement in the Light of policy Measures Affecting Farming System in Nepal  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Institutional Cr.dlt and Markoting Despite the grim performance of policies and programmes related to land use and distribution, an effective performance of the institutional credit and marketing prollrammes Qo~ld offer some hope to improve the farmers' economic...

Pandey, Tulsi Ram

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Improved confidence in (U-Th)/He thermochronology using the laser microprobe: An example from a Pleistocene leucogranite, Nanga Parbat, Pakistan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The newly developed laser microprobe (U-Th)/He thermochronometer permits, for the first time, the ability to generate precise (U-Th)/He cooling ages for even very young (<1 Ma) samples with a spatial resolution on the order ...

Boyce, J. W.

324

Natural Gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - U.S ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

At the Nymex, the price of the September 2013 contract declined. ... Working natural gas in storage increased above its 5-year average to 2,941 Bcf as of Friday, ...

325

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

At the NYMEX futures market, the settlement price for November delivery of natural gas moved up most days before dropping by almost 0.19 per MMBtu on Friday to end the week...

326

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

transportation costs between regions. The spot price at the New York Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Zone 6 increased 13 cents per MMBtu to 7.13. At the NYMEX, the price of the...

327

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

while spot prices in the Northeast were slightly higher with gains of nearly 60 cents in response to regional cooling demand. The NYMEX futures contract for August delivery gained...

328

Microsoft Word - Test4.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

continued to track the previous day&20;s NYMEX price movement, except in the Rockies. In response to increased demand from the recent winter-like weather, the largest LDC in...

329

Cushing crude oil inventories rising in 2012 - Today in Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, the delivery point for the NYMEX light-sweet crude oil futures contract, are up by 12.0 million barrels ...

330

EIA Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

summer-like temperatures, a slowing price trend for the November NYMEX contract, and an increase in the storage refill rate. Spot prices declined at almost all major markets. An...

331

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Gabrielle's cooling rains and cloud cover dampened demand, sending prices on Florida Gas Transmission down 18 cents to 3.32 per MMBtu. On Friday the NYMEX reopened for trading...

332

EIA - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The NYMEX futures contract for January delivery at the Henry Hub closed last week on Wednesday (12/27) at a new record high of $9.978 per MMBtuBmore than four times ...

333

EIA - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The NYMEX futures price for February delivery at the Henry Hub opened Monday, January 6, at $3.600 per MMBtu, $0.494 higher than Friday s settlement price.

334

Energy Spot Price Models and Spread Options Pricing Samuel Hikspoors and Sebastian Jaimungal a  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and calibrate our model to the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil spot and futures data, allowing us to extract curves. Adding a perturbation on top of this first order model allows us to correct some

Jaimungal, Sebastian

335

Microsoft Word - summer.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

in electric utility air-conditioning demand is beginning to impact the price of natural gas. Price volatility returned to trading of NYMEX futures contract for July as the...

336

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Associates, citing NYMEX natural gas bid-offer spreadAnalysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. ” The EnergyProfiles of Renewable and Natural Gas Electricity Contracts:

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

EIA Report 9/10/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

0, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9102008 Pre-Gustav 8292008 change Week Ago 932008 Year Ago...

338

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

on the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, October 21-28) to end trading at 7.626 per MMBtu. Taking over as the near-month contract, the NYMEX futures contract for December delivery...

339

MO?F?103?01: Estimating Risk of Low Radiation Doses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Several articles in the medical literature over the past few years have predicted thousands of cancers and cancer deaths annually in the US population caused by radiation exposures from medical imaging. The predictions are derived from risk estimates in the National Academy of Sciences BEIR VII report. These risk estimates are highly speculative with wide confidence intervals

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Parameter identification and model verification in systems of partial differential equations applied to transdermal drug delivery  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this paper is to present some numerical tools which facilitate the interpretation of simulation or data fitting results and which allow computation of optimal experimental designs. They help to validate mathematical models describing the ... Keywords: Confidence interval, Optimum experimental design, Parameter estimation, Partial differential equation, Transdermal application

Klaus Schittkowski

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Towards Development of Risk-based Checkpointing Scheme Via Parametric Bootstrapping  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Optimal checkpoint placement is a commonly used technique to generate the optimal checkpoint time sequence minimizing the system cost with the recovery overhead from a system failure and the checkpoint overhead caused by check pointing itself. When the ... Keywords: checkpoint placement, exponential distribution, bootstrapping, resampling, confidence interval, estimation error

Shunsuke Tokumoto; Tadashi Dohi; Wong Young Yun

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

STA665 Spring 2005 Due Friday, May 6, 11:59pm, by email  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

debilitating lack of excitement in life. To this end, you example 5 different vehicles - a Saturn, a Prius (1=Saturn, 2=Prius, 3=TransAm, 4=Element, 5=Hummer). 1. Fit a poisson regression to these data=graduate degree, S=Saturn, P=Prius, T=TransAm, E=Element. 2. Using your final model, compute a confidence interval

Viele, Kert

343

Comparing cost prediction models by resampling techniques  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accurate software cost prediction is a research topic that has attracted much of the interest of the software engineering community during the latest decades. A large part of the research efforts involves the development of statistical models based ... Keywords: Accuracy measure, Bootstrap, Confidence interval, Permutation test, Software cost estimation

Nikolaos Mittas; Lefteris Angelis

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Rev. 03/2012 INSTRUCTIONS AND FORM  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the runoff regime, or as an ensemble of annual FDCs (AFDCs) estimated for each year of record (Vogel or median of the AFDCs as well as the variances or confidence intervals of the runoff quantiles. The mean or median AFDC is a hypothetical AFDC, which describes the annual runoff regime for a typical hydrological

Rhode Island, University of

345

Factors associated with mosquito net use by individuals in households owning nets in Ethiopia  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and multi-variable models for each survey. Results In 2006, increased net use was associated with: age 25-49 years (adjusted (a) OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.7) compared to children U5; female gender (aOR = 1.4; 95% CI 1.2-1.5); fewer nets...

Graves, Patricia M; Ngondi, Jeremiah M; Hwang, Jimee; Getachew, Asefaw; Gebre, Teshome; Mosher, Aryc W; Patterson, Amy E; Shargie, Estifanos B; Tadesse, Zerihun; Wolkon, Adam; Reithinger, Richard; Emerson, Paul M; Richards, Frank O Jr

2011-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

346

A Bootstrap Approach to Computing Uncertainty in Inferred Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.

Attanasi, Emil D. [US Geological Survey MS 956 (United States)], E-mail: attanasi@usgs.gov; Coburn, Timothy C. [Abilene Christian University, Department of Management Science (United States)

2004-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

347

Determination of uncertainty in reserves estimate from analysis of production decline data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysts increasingly have used probabilistic approaches to evaluate the uncertainty in reserves estimates based on a decline curve analysis. This is because the results represent statistical analysis of historical data that usually possess significant amounts of noise. Probabilistic approaches usually provide a distribution of reserves estimates with three confidence levels (P10, P50 and P90) and a corresponding 80% confidence interval. The question arises: how reliable is this 80% confidence interval? In other words, in a large set of analyses, is the true value of reserves contained within this interval 80% of the time? Our investigation indicates that it is common in practice for true values of reserves to lie outside the 80% confidence interval much more than 20% of the time using traditional statistical analyses. This indicates that uncertainty is being underestimated, often significantly. Thus, the challenge in probabilistic reserves estimation using a decline curve analysis is not only how to appropriately characterize probabilistic properties of complex production data sets, but also how to determine and then improve the reliability of the uncertainty quantifications. This thesis presents an improved methodology for probabilistic quantification of reserves estimates using a decline curve analysis and practical application of the methodology to actual individual well decline curves. The application of our proposed new method to 100 oil and gas wells demonstrates that it provides much wider 80% confidence intervals, which contain the true values approximately 80% of the time. In addition, the method yields more accurate P50 values than previously published methods. Thus, the new methodology provides more reliable probabilistic reserves estimation, which has important impacts on economic risk analysis and reservoir management.

Wang, Yuhong

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Consistency Test and Constraint of Quintessence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we highlight our recent work in arXiv:0803.4504. In that work, we proposed a new consistency test of quintessence models for dark energy. Our test gave a simple and direct signature if certain category of quintessence models was not consistent with the observational data. For a category that passed the test, we further constrained its characteristic parameter. Specifically, we found that the exponential potential was ruled out at the 95% confidence level and the power-law potential was ruled out at the 68% confidence level based on the current observational data. We also found that the confidence interval of the index of the power-law potential was between -2 and 0 at the 95% confidence level.

Chen, Chien-Wen; Gu, Je-AN; /Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; Chen, Pisin; /SLAC /Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.

2012-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

349

The Case of Sharp Velocity Transitions in High Vertical Wind Shear When Measuring Doppler Velocities with Narrow Nyquist Intervals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An investigation was launched following unexpected observations of step-function transitions in Doppler velocities from scanning radars in regions of high vertical wind shear. It revealed that, if wind velocity transitions are sufficiently sharp ...

Frédéric Fabry; Clotilde Augros; Aldo Bellon

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Plant Application of On-Line Monitoring for Calibration Interval Extension of Safety-Related Instruments: Volume 1 and 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temperature, pressure, and other instruments in important applications in nuclear power plants are calibrated periodically to ensure reliable measurements and plant safety. Calibrations are typically performed once every fuel cycle (that is, once every 18 to 24 months). Through calibration activities, substantial labor is devoted to isolating the instruments, calibrating them, and returning them to service. In recent years, reviews of calibration histories of process instruments in nuclear power plants h...

2006-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

351

Data processing under a combination of interval and probabilistic uncertainty and its application to earth and environmental studies and engineering  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many areas of science and engineering, we are interested in the value of physical quantities that are difficult (or even impossible) to measure directly. For example, it is very difficult to directly measure the amount of oil in a well or, more generally, ...

Jan Bastian Beck / Vladik Kreinovich

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Modeling natural gas prices as a random walk: The advantages for generation planning  

SciTech Connect

Random walk modeling allows decision makers to evaluate risk mitigation strategies. Easily constructed, the random walk provides probability information that long-term fuel forecasts do not. This is vital to meeting the ratepayers` need for low-cost power, the shareholders` financial objectives, and the regulators` desire for straightforward information. Power generation planning depends heavily on long-term fuel price forecasts. This is particularly true for natural gas-fired plants, because fuel expenses are a significant portion of busbar costs and are subject to considerable uncertainty. Accurate forecasts, then, are critical - especially if electric utilities are to take advantage of the current low cost of natural gas technologies and their relatively clean burning characteristics, without becoming overdependent on a fuel that might significantly increase in price. Moreover, the transition to a more competitive generation market requires a more market-driven planning process. Current planning techniques use several long-term fuel forecasts - one serving as an expected case and others for sensitivity analysis - as inputs for modeling production costs. These forecasts are deterministic: For every time interval there is one, and only one projected fuel price - a serious limitation. Further, past natural gas price predictions have been erroneous and may be susceptible to bias. Today, deregulation of the natural gas production industry allows for a new approach in long-term fuel forecasting. Using NYMEX information, a random walk model of natural gas prices can be constructed. A random walk assumes that prices move randomly, and in modeling prices in this context one would be sure to include this all-important price volatility.

Felder, F.A.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Markets & Finance - Data - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Charts Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Charts Selected Charts Figure 1: Historical crude oil front month futures prices Figure 6: Probability of the November 2012 WTI contract expiring above different price levels Figure 7: Historical RBOB futures prices and crack spreads Figure 9: Probability of November 2012 retail gasoline exceeding different prices levels at expiration Figure 13: Historical front month U.S. natural gas prices Figure 15: Probability of the November 2012 Henry Hub contract expiring above price levels West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price Confidence Intervals XLS West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price Probabilities XLS Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices and Confidence Intervals XLS Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Probabilities XLS

354

Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook 1/12/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Summary Short-Term Petroleum. and Natural Gas Outlook WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices Consumer Winter Heating Costs U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook Retail Motor Gasoline Prices* U.S. Propane Total Stocks Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices Current Natural Gas Spot Prices: Well Above the Recent Price Range Natural Gas Spot Prices: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Working Gas in Storage (Percentage Difference fron Previous 5-Year Average)

355

Statistical Evaluation of Experimental Determinations of Neutrino Mass Hierarchy  

SciTech Connect

Statistical methods of presenting experimental results in constraining the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH) are discussed. Two problems are considered and are related to each other: how to report the findings for observed experimental data, and how to evaluate the ability of a future experiment to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, namely, sensitivity of the experiment. For the first problem where experimental data have already been observed, the classical statistical analysis involves constructing confidence intervals for the parameter {Delta}m{sup 2}{sub 32}. These intervals are deduced from the parent distribution of the estimation of {Delta}m{sup 2}{sub 32} based on experimental data. Due to existing experimental constraints on |{Delta}m{sup 2}{sub 32}|, the estimation of {Delta}m{sup 2}{sub 32} is better approximated by a Bernoulli distribution (a Binomial distribution with 1 trial) rather than a Gaussian distribution. Therefore, the Feldman-Cousins approach needs to be used instead of the Gaussian approximation in constructing confidence intervals. Furthermore, as a result of the definition of confidence intervals, even if it is correctly constructed, its confidence level does not directly reflect how much one hypothesis of the MH is supported by the data rather than the other hypothesis. We thus describe a Bayesian approach that quantifies the evidence provided by the observed experimental data through the (posterior) probability that either one hypothesis of MH is true. This Bayesian presentation of observed experimental results is then used to develop several metrics to assess the sensitivity of future experiments. Illustrations are made using a simple example with a confined parameter space, which approximates the MH determination problem with experimental constraints on the |{Delta}m{sup 2}{sub 32}|.

X. Qian, A. Tan, W. Wang, J. J. Ling, R. D. McKeown, C. Zhang

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Imaging atherosclerotic plaque inflammation with [18F]- fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of tracer CI Confidence interval CO2 Carbon dioxide CRP C-reactive protein CT Computed tomography DPM Decays per minute eNOS Endothelial nitric oxide synthase EDTA Ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid ETL Echo train... rabbit p Probability PBMC Peripheral blood mononuclear cells PBS Phosphate-buffered saline PDGF Platelet-derived growth factor PDW Proton density-weighted PET Positron emission tomography PK11195 1-(2-chlorophenyl...

Rudd, James H. F.

2003-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

357

A conceptual model and preliminary estimate of potential tritium migration from the Benham (U-20c) site, Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

U-20c is the site of a large below-water-table nuclear test near the Nevada Test Site boundary. A conceptual model of potential groundwater migration of tritium from U-20c is constructed and quantitatively evaluated in this report. The lower portion of the collapse chimney at Benham is expected to intersect 200 m of permeable rhyolite lava, overlain by similar thicknesses of low-permeability zeolitized bedded tuff, then permeable welded tuff. Vertical groundwater flow through the chimney is predicted to be minimal, horizontal transport should be controlled by the regional groundwater flow. Analytic solutions treating only advective transport indicate 1 to 2 km of tritium movement (95% confidence interval 0.7--2.5 km) within 5 years after test-related pressure-temperature transients have dissipated. This point lies at the axis of a potentiometric surface trough along the west edge of Area 20, Nevada Test Site. Within 25 years, movement is predicted to extend to 3 km (95% confidence interval 2--5 km) approximately to the intersection of the trough and the Nevada Test Site boundary. Considering the effects of radioactive decay, but not dispersion, plume concentration would fall below Safe Drinking Water Act standards by 204 years, at a predicted distance of 11 km (95% confidence interval 7--31 km). This point is located in the eastern portion of the Timber Mountain Caldera moat within the Nellis Air Force Range (military bombing range).

Brikowski, T.; Mahin, G. [Nevada Univ., Reno, NV (United States). Water Resources Center

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Delay in initiating adjuvant radiotherapy following breast conservation surgery and its impact on survival  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: Delays in the diagnosis of breast cancer are associated with advanced stage and poor survival, but the importance of the time interval between lumpectomy and initiation of radiation therapy (RT) has not been well studied. We investigated factors that influence the time interval between lumpectomy and RT, and the association between that interval and survival. Patients and Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database on women aged 65 years and older, diagnosed with Stages I-II breast cancer, between 1991 and 1999. Among patients who did not receive chemotherapy, we studied factors associated with the time interval between lumpectomy and the initiation of RT, and the association of delay with survival, using linear regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: Among 24,833 women with who underwent lumpectomy, 13,907 (56%) underwent RT. Among those receiving RT, 97% started treatment within 3 months; older age, black race, advanced stage, more comorbidities, and being unmarried were associated with longer time intervals between surgery and RT. There was no benefit to earlier initiation of RT; however, delays >3 months were associated with higher overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-2.24) and cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval 3.01-4.91). Conclusions: Reassuringly, early initiation of RT was not associated with survival. Although delays of >3 months are uncommon, they are associated with poor survival. Whether this association is causal or due to confounding factors, such as poor health behaviors, is unknown; until it is better understood, efforts should be made to initiate RT in a timely fashion.

Hershman, Dawn L. [Department of Medicine and the Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, College of Physicians and Surgeons (United States) and Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University (United States) and New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY (United States)]. E-mail: dlh23@columbia.edu; Wang Xiaoyan [Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University (United States); McBride, Russell [Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University (United States)] (and others)

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Workbook Contents  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

NYMEX Futures Prices" NYMEX Futures Prices" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma)",4,"Daily","12/17/2013","3/30/1983" ,"Data 2","Reformulated Regular Gasoline (New York Harbor)",4,"Daily","12/29/2006","12/3/1984" ,"Data 3","RBOB Regular Gasoline (New York Harbor)",4,"Daily","12/17/2013","10/3/2005" ,"Data 4","No. 2 Heating Oil (New York Harbor)",4,"Daily","12/17/2013","1/2/1980"

360

Digitally Available Interval-Specific Rock-Sample Data Compiled from Historical Records, Nevada Test Site and Vicinity, Nye County, Nevada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Between 1951 and 1992, underground nuclear weapons testing was conducted at 828 sites on the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. Prior to and following these nuclear tests, holes were drilled and mined to collect rock samples. These samples are organized and stored by depth of borehole or drift at the U.S. Geological Survey Core Library and Data Center at Mercury, Nevada, on the Nevada Test Site. From these rock samples, rock properties were analyzed and interpreted and compiled into project files and in published reports that are maintained at the Core Library and at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Henderson, Nevada. These rock-sample data include lithologic descriptions, physical and mechanical properties, and fracture characteristics. Hydraulic properties also were compiled from holes completed in the water table. Rock samples are irreplaceable because pre-test, in-place conditions cannot be recreated and samples cannot be recollected from the many holes destroyed by testing. Documenting these data in a published report will ensure availability for future investigators.

David B. Wood

2009-10-08T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix E AN ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN POWER MARKET  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

is likely to depend on market demand. The NYMEX natural gas contract was originally for a maximum term of 18 the effects of both a near-term surplus of capacity on the West Coast and the continuing low natural gas indicates that, as might be expected, the price of natural gas is a key determinant of electricity price

362

The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) ofCO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration,were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving>80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gCm-2 year-1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.

Fox, Andrew [University of Sheffield; Williams, Mathew [University of Edinburgh; Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard University; Cameron, David [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate; Gove, Jeffrey H. [USDA Forest Service; Quaife, Tristan [University College, London; Ricciuto, Daniel M [ORNL; Reichstein, Markus [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry; Tomelleri, Enrico [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry; Trudinger, Cathy [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; Van Wijk, Mark T. [Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Effect of Statins and Anticoagulants on Prostate Cancer Aggressiveness  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: Statins and anticoagulants (ACs) have both been associated with a less-aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and a better outcome after treatment of localized PCa. The results of these studies might have been confounded because patients might often take both medications. We examined their respective influence on PCa aggressiveness at initial diagnosis. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 381 patients treated with either external beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy for low-risk (n = 152), intermediate-risk (n = 142), or high-risk (n = 87) localized PCa. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate an association between these drug classes and prostate cancer aggressiveness. We tested whether the concomitant use of statins and ACs had a different effect than that of either AC or statin use alone. Results: Of the 381 patients, 172 (45.1%) were taking statins and 141 (37.0%) ACs; 105 patients (27.6%) used both. On univariate analysis, the statin and AC users were associated with the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (p = .017) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = .0022). On multivariate analysis, statin use was associated with a PSA level <10 ng/mL (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-6.8; p = .012) and a PSA level >20 ng/mL (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.83; p = .03). The use of ACs was associated with a PSA level >20 ng/mL (odds ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.59, p = .02). Conclusion: Both AC and statins have an effect on PCa aggressiveness, with statins having a more stringent relationship with the PSA level, highlighting the importance of considering statin use in studies of PCa aggressiveness.

Alizadeh, Moein [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l'Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre [Research Center, Department of Statistics, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Zilli, Thomas; Van Nguyen, Thu; Guay, Jean-Pierre; Bahary, Jean-Paul [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l'Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Taussky, Daniel, E-mail: daniel.taussky.chum@ssss.gouv.qc.ca [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l'Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

2012-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

364

Gene- or region-based association study via kernel principal component analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

association studies. Am J Hum Genet 2002, 70(5):1257-1268. 19. Fan R, Knapp M: Genome association studies of complex diseases by case-control designs. Am J Hum Genet 2003, 72(4):850-868. 20. Peng Q, Zhao J, Xue F: PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval tests... cases and N/2 controls, N = 1000, 2000, ..., 12000) using the R packages kernlab (http://cran.r-project.org/web/ packages/kernlab/index.html) and Design (http://cran.r- project.org/web/packages/Design/index.html). Under H0, we repeat 10 000 simulations...

Gao, Qingsong; He, Yungang; Yuan, Zhongshang; Zhao, Jinghua; Zhang, Bingbing; Xue, Fuzhong

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

365

Asymptotics for penalized additive B-spline regression  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper is concerned with asymptotic theory for penalized spline estimator in bivariate additive model. The focus of this paper is put upon the penalized spline estimator obtained by the backfitting algorithm. The convergence of the algorithm as well as the uniqueness of its solution are shown. The asymptotic bias and variance of penalized spline estimator are derived by an efficient use of the asymptotic results for the penalized spline estimator in marginal univariate model. Asymptotic normality of estimator is also developed, by which an approximate confidence interval can be obtained. Some numerical experiments confirming theoretical results are provided.

Yoshida, T

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Mean estimation in highly skewed samples  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of inference for the mean of a highly asymmetric distribution is considered. Even with large sample sizes, usual asymptotics based on normal theory give poor answers, as the right-hand tail of the distribution is often under-sampled. This paper attempts to improve performance in two ways. First, modifications of the standard confidence interval procedure are examined. Second, diagnostics are proposed to indicate whether or not inferential procedures are likely to be valid. The problems are illustrated with data simulated from an absolute value Cauchy distribution. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Pederson, S.P.

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Estimating meteor rates using Bayesian inference  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A method for estimating the true meteor rate \\lambda\\ from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the adoption of Jeffreys prior, P(\\lambda)=\\lambda^{-0.5}, which yields an expectation value E(\\lambda) = n+0.5 for any n \\geq 0. We update the ZHR meteor activity formula accordingly, and explain how 68%- and 95%-confidence intervals can be computed.

Barentsen, Geert; Fröhlich, Hans-Erich

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

30, 2009 30, 2009 Next Release: May 7, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, April 29, 2009) The direction of spot price movements was mixed this report week (Wednesday-Wednesday, April 22-29). However, changes were relatively small regardless of direction. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased by $0.05 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $3.43. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices decreased as moderate temperatures in most of the country limited demand and a perception of strong supply continues. The futures contract for May delivery expired on Tuesday, April 28, at a price of $3.321 per MMBtu, which is the lowest monthly closing price for a NYMEX near-month contract

369

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 9, 2001 October 9, 2001 After beginning last week down on Monday (10/1), spot prices at the Henry Hub moved up and peaked on Thursday before declining slightly to end trading last week at $2.12 per MMBtu-almost $0.30 higher than the previous Friday. At the NYMEX futures market, the settlement price for November delivery of natural gas moved up most days before dropping by almost $0.19 per MMBtu on Friday to end the week down from the previous Friday. Both the spot and futures markets were open on Columbus Day (10/8) and the downward trend at the Henry Hub continued as spot prices were reported to be $2.04 per MMBtu, while on the NYMEX the November contract gained over 4 cents. A key influence on prices last week seems to have been the weather. Cool weather moved into the Midwest on Wednesday affecting most markets in the

370

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 18, 2006) 1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 18, 2006) Springtime temperatures in most regions of the country this week and slightly lower prices for crude oil led to an easing of natural gas spot prices in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, May 3. On the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, May 3-10), the Henry Hub spot price dropped 6 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1.0 percent, to $6.50. In contrast to spot market activity, trading of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) this week resulted in gains. The NYMEX contract for June delivery increased 29.4 cents per MMBtu on the week to a daily settlement of $6.900 yesterday (May 10). Net injections reported in today's release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report brought natural gas storage supplies to

371

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8, 2009 8, 2009 Next Release: June 4, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 27, 2009) Natural gas spot prices declined this report week (May 20-27), with the largest decreases generally occurring in the western half of the country. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased by $0.26 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $3.49. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices decreased as moderate temperatures in most of the country limited demand. The futures contract for June delivery expired yesterday, May 27, at a price of $3.538 per MMBtu, which is the second-lowest monthly closing price for a NYMEX near-month contract in more than 6 years. Meanwhile, the price

372

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

30, 2009 30, 2009 Next Release: May 7, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, April 29, 2009) The direction of spot price movements was mixed this report week (Wednesday-Wednesday, April 22-29). However, changes were relatively small regardless of direction. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased by $0.05 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $3.43. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices decreased as moderate temperatures in most of the country limited demand and a perception of strong supply continues. The futures contract for May delivery expired on Tuesday, April 28, at a price of $3.321 per MMBtu, which is the lowest monthly closing price for a NYMEX near-month contract

373

Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Futures Prices (NYMEX) Futures Prices (NYMEX) Definitions Key Terms Definition Contract 1 A futures contract specifying the earliest delivery date. For gasoline, heating oil, and propane each contract expires on the last business day of the month preceding the delivery month. Thus, the delivery month for Contract 1 is the calendar month following the trade date. For crude oil, each contract expires on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading ceases on the third business day prior to the business day preceding the 25th calendar day. After a contract expires, Contract 1 for the remainder of that calendar month is the second following month. Contract 2-4 Represent the successive delivery months following Contract 1.

374

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5, 2009 5, 2009 Next Release: March 12, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, March 4, 2009) A late winter cold spell in major population centers in the Lower 48 States this report week temporarily boosted space-heating demand in most of the country. Prices at trading locations throughout the country were slightly higher for the report week. The Henry Hub spot price increased $0.03 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $4.23. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), trading of the March contract ended during the report week with a final or expiration price of $4.056 per MMBtu, the lowest expiration price for a near-month NYMEX contract since the October 2002 contract. Nonetheless, futures prices were

375

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8, 2009 8, 2009 Next Release: June 4, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 27, 2009) Natural gas spot prices declined this report week (May 20-27), with the largest decreases generally occurring in the western half of the country. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased by $0.26 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $3.49. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices decreased as moderate temperatures in most of the country limited demand. The futures contract for June delivery expired yesterday, May 27, at a price of $3.538 per MMBtu, which is the second-lowest monthly closing price for a NYMEX near-month contract in more than 6 years. Meanwhile, the price

376

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

30 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 6) 30 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 6) Since Wednesday, December 22, natural gas spot prices have decreased sharply at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 87 cents per MMBtu or about 12 percent to $6.18. Prices declined in each of the last three days of trading (December 27-29) as temperatures moderated following the coldest weather to date of the 2004-2005 heating season, which occurred during the holiday weekend. On Tuesday, December 28, the January futures contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) ended its tenure as the near-month contract, settling at $6.213 per MMBtu. On its first day of trading as the near-month contract, the NYMEX futures contract for February

377

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 30, 3, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 30, 2007) Natural gas spot and futures prices eased this report week (Wednesday to Wednesday, August 15-22), as Hurricane Dean failed to have a significant impact on U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico and moderate temperatures limited demand. On the week, the Henry Hub spot price declined $1.46 per MMBtu, or 20 percent, to $5.84. Trading of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) also resulted in large price decreases. The NYMEX contract for September delivery decreased $1.286 per MMBtu on the week to a daily settlement of $5.578 yesterday (August 22). Working gas inventories reported in today's release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report were 2,926 Bcf as of Friday, August 17, which is 12.8

378

Prompt-Month Energy Futures  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Prompt-Month Energy Futures Prompt-Month Energy Futures Prices and trading activity shown are for prompt-month (see definition below) futures contracts for the energy commodities listed in the table below. Note that trading for prompt-month futures contracts ends on different dates at the end of the month for the various commodities; therefore, some commodity prices may reference delivery for the next month sooner than other commodity prices. Product Description Listed With Crude Oil ($/barrel) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma More details | Contract specifications New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) Gasoline-RBOB ($/gallon) Reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) gasoline delivered to New York Harbor More details | Contract specifications Nymex

379

Survival of Wells Hatchery Steelhead in the Mid-Columbia River, Part I, Smolt Monitoring Program, 1984 Annual Report.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Survival of steelhead trout (Salmo gairdneri) from Wells Hatchery (WDG) was studied in 1984 to derive an index of steelhead survival in the mid-Columbia. This index was determined as part of the Smolt Monitoring Program conducted by the fishery agencies and tribes through the Water Budget Center. The program in 1984 was limited because of fish availability. A major goal of the 1984 program was to adapt techniques which have largely been used for specific research purposes, to a management program that is to be repeated annually. Such a program requires that minimum disruption of the existing fishery management program occurs. Sufficient fish were allocated to the program to allow two replicate test releases from Pateros, Washington and two paired control releases below Priest Rapids Dam. These mark groups were recovered at McNary Dam, and survival was calculated as the ratio in proportion recovered for the test and control groups. Data from the second replicate release was judged to not sufficiently meet the experimental criteria and was rejected. The first replicate was judged to be suitable, and survival was calculated. Estimated survival for the first steelhead replicate from Pateros to below Priest Rapids Dam was 0.5181 with a lower 95% confidence interval of 0.4626 and an upper confidence interval of 0.5736.

McConnaha, Willis E.

1985-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

380

FADD Expression as a Prognosticator in Early-Stage Glottic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Larynx Treated Primarily With Radiotherapy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: We recently reported on the identification of the Fas-associated death domain (FADD) as a possible driver of the chromosome 11q13 amplicon and the association between increased FADD expression and disease-specific survival in advanced-stage laryngeal carcinoma. The aim of this study was to examine whether expression of FADD and its Ser194-phosphorylated isoform (pFADD) predicts local control in patients with early-stage glottic carcinoma primarily treated with radiotherapy only. Methods and Materials: Immunohistochemical staining for FADD and pFADD was performed on pretreatment biopsy specimens of 92 patients with T1-T2 glottic squamous cell carcinoma primarily treated with radiotherapy between 1996 and 2005. Cox regression analysis was used to correlate expression levels with local control. Results: High levels of pFADD were associated with significantly better local control (hazard ratio, 2.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-5.55; p = 0.040). FADD overexpression showed a trend toward better local control (hazard ratio, 3.656; 95% confidence interval, 0.853-15.663; p = 0.081). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high pFADD expression was the best predictor of local control after radiotherapy. Conclusions: This study showed that expression of phosphorylated FADD is a new prognostic biomarker for better local control after radiotherapy in patients with early-stage glottic carcinomas.

Schrijvers, Michiel L. [Department of Otorhinolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Pattje, Wouter J. [Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Slagter-Menkema, Lorian [Department of Otorhinolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Mastik, Mirjam F.; Gibcus, Johan H. [Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Wal, Jacqueline E. van der [Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Laan, Bernard F.A.M. vn der [Department of Otorhinolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schuuring, E., E-mail: e.schuuring@umcg.nl [Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

2012-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

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381

YIELD BENEFIT OF CORN EVENT MON 863  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provide that this Data from field experiments are used to estimate the yield benefit of corn hybrids containing event MON 863 relative to nontransgenic corn hybrids without corn rootworm control and with a soil insecticide for corn rootworm control. Over typical ranges for corn rootworm population pressure, event MON 863 provides a yield benefit of 9-28% relative to no control and of 1.5-4.5 % relative to control with a soil insecticide. For a reasonable range of prices and yields, the value of the event MON 863 yield benefit is $25-$75/ac relative to no control and $4-$12/ac relative to control with a soil insecticide, depending on corn rootworm pressure. Because of the low correlation between yield loss and the root rating difference, a common empirical finding when estimating yield loss with root ratings, the 95% confidence intervals around these averages are quite wide. Though on average, event MON 863 has substantial value, the wide confidence intervals imply that farmers will see a wide variety of actual performance levels in their fields. This uncertainty in the

Paul D. Mitchell; Paul D. Mitchell

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Data-free inference of uncertain model parameters.  

SciTech Connect

It is known that, in general, the correlation structure in the joint distribution of model parameters is critical to the uncertainty analysis of that model. Very often, however, studies in the literature only report nominal values for parameters inferred from data, along with confidence intervals for these parameters, but no details on the correlation or full joint distribution of these parameters. When neither posterior nor data are available, but only summary statistics such as nominal values and confidence intervals, a joint PDF must be chosen. Given the summary statistics it may not be reasonable nor necessary to assume the parameters are independent random variables. We demonstrate, using a Bayesian inference procedure, how to construct a posterior density for the parameters exhibiting self consistent correlations, in the absence of data, given (1) the fit-model, (2) nominal parameter values, (3) bounds on the parameters, and (4) a postulated statistical model, around the fit-model, for the missing data. Our approach ensures external Bayesian updating while marginalizing over possible data realizations. We then address the matching of given parameter bounds through the choice of hyperparameters, which are introduced in postulating the statistical model, but are not given nominal values. We discuss some possible approaches, including (1) inferring them in a separate Bayesian inference loop and (2) optimization. We also perform an empirical evaluation of the algorithm showing the posterior obtained with this data free inference compares well with the true posterior obtained from inference against the full data set.

Marzouk, Youssef M. (MIT, Cambridge, MA); Adalsteinsson, Helgi; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Berry, Robert Bruce

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Data-free inference of the joint distribution of uncertain model parameters.  

SciTech Connect

It is known that, in general, the correlation structure in the joint distribution of model parameters is critical to the uncertainty analysis of that model. Very often, however, studies in the literature only report nominal values for parameters inferred from data, along with confidence intervals for these parameters, but no details on the correlation or full joint distribution of these parameters. When neither posterior nor data are available, but only summary statistics such as nominal values and confidence intervals, a joint PDF must be chosen. Given the summary statistics it may not be reasonable nor necessary to assume the parameters are independent random variables. We demonstrate, using a Bayesian inference procedure, how to construct a posterior density for the parameters exhibiting self consistent correlations, in the absence of data, given (1) the fit-model, (2) nominal parameter values, (3) bounds on the parameters, and (4) a postulated statistical model, around the fit-model, for the missing data. Our approach ensures external Bayesian updating while marginalizing over possible data realizations. We then address the matching of given parameter bounds through the choice of hyperparameters, which are introduced in postulating the statistical model, but are not given nominal values. We discuss some possible approaches, including (1) inferring them in a separate Bayesian inference loop and (2) optimization. We also perform an empirical evaluation of the algorithm showing the posterior obtained with this data free inference compares well with the true posterior obtained from inference against the full data set.

Marzouk, Youssef M. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, MA); Adalsteinsson, Helgi; Berry, Robert Dan; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Changing Trends in the Refining Industry (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the WTI crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC Basket price.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Worried About High N Prices? Keith A Kelling and Larry G Bundy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

October 16, 2003 Source: NYMEX #12;Per Cent 2002 2003 Change Res/Commercial 22.04 22.85 +3.7 Electric to increased offshore competition U.S. natural gas prices are expected to moderate but remain above historical 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 N rate (lb/a) #12;Economic Optimum N Rate

Balser, Teri C.

386

Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2010-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

387

Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2011-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

388

Later Outcomes and Alpha/Beta Estimate From Hypofractionated Conformal Three-Dimensional Radiotherapy Versus Standard Fractionation for Localized Prostate Cancer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: Now that the follow-up time has exceeded 5 years, an estimate of the {alpha}/{beta} ratio can be presented. The additional late outcomes in patients treated with three-dimensional conformal external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer using a hypofractionated vs. a standard fractionation regimen are reported from this prospective nonrandomized contemporary comparison. Methods and Materials: A total of 114 nonrandomized patients chose hypofractionation delivered in 20 fractions of 3 Gy or 3.15 Gy (mean 3.06 Gy) for localized prostate cancer within a median overall time of 32 days (range, 29-49) using four fractions weekly. A total of 160 comparable patients were contemporarily treated within a median of 55 days (range 49-66). The median follow-up was 66 months (range, 24-95) for the hypofractionated arm and 63 months (range, 36-92) for the standard arm. The percentage of patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 36%, 46%, and 18% in the hypofractionated arm and 44%, 50%, and 6% in standard arm (2 Gy), respectively. Results: The 5-year actuarial biochemical absence of disease (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) and disease-free survival rate was the same at 89% in both arms, making the {alpha}/{beta} calculation unambiguous. The point ratio of {alpha}/{beta} was 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.7-5.1 Gy). The 95% confidence interval was determined entirely by the binomial confidence limits in the numbers of patients. Rectal reactions of grade 3 and 4 occurred in 1 of 114 (hypofractionated) and 2 of 160 (standard) patients. Conclusions: The presented three-dimensional conformal regimen was acceptable, and the {alpha}/{beta} value was 1.8, in agreement with other very recent low meta-analyses (reviewed in the '' section).

Leborgne, Felix [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Italiano, Montevideo (Uruguay); Fowler, Jack, E-mail: jackfowlersbox@gmail.com [Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison, WI (United States); Leborgne, Jose H.; Mezzera, Julieta [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Italiano, Montevideo (Uruguay)

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Experimental investigation of the permeability of Kayenta and St. Peter sandstones to hypersaline brine in the temperature interval 70 to 90/sup 0/C at 10. 3-MPa confining pressure  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Permeabilities of 10.2 cm in length, 2.5 cm in diameter Kayenta (porosity, 20.7, +- 1.66%) and St. Peter (porosity, 13.6, +- 0.13%) sandstones to Magmamax No. 1 brine containing suspended solids were determined from 70 to 90/sup 0/C at 10.3-MPa confining pressure. Measurements were performed without filters, with one 10-..mu..m filter, and with two 10-..mu..m filters inserted upstream of the core sample. In all cases, there was a dramatic decrease in permeability within the first hour of flow or few hundred pore volumes of flow through the core. Experiments conducted without filters or with one filter yield permeabilities that represent both the rock and the 2- to 3-mm amorphous silica-iron layer on the top face of the core. The experimental results show that if the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) were composed of porous, sedimentary formations similar to Kayenta sandstone, long-term injection of unmodified Magmamax brine would not be feasible. In the case of acidified brine, most of the permeability decline may result from the mobilization of calcite.

Piwinskii, A.J.; Netherton, R.

1977-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

390

Low-Resolution STELab IPS 3D Reconstructions of the Whole Heliosphere Interval and Comparison with in-Ecliptic Solar Wind Measurements from STEREO and Wind Instrumentation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

structure of the fast solar wind. J. Geophys. Res. 112,observations of the solar wind. Proc. SPIE 6689, 668911-1.W.A. , Maagoe, S. : 1972, Solar wind velocity from ips

Bisi, M. M.; Jackson, B. V.; Buffington, A.; Clover, J. M.; Hick, P. P.; Tokumaru, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Low-Resolution STELab IPS 3D Reconstructions of the Whole Heliosphere Interval and Comparison with in-Ecliptic Solar Wind Measurements from STEREO and Wind Instrumentation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Telescopes and Instrumentation for Solar Astrophysics, Proc.from STEREO and Wind Instrumentation M.M. Bisi · B.V.Ion Composi- tion (PLASTIC) instrumentation (Galvin et al. ,

Bisi, M. M.; Jackson, B. V.; Buffington, A.; Clover, J. M.; Hick, P. P.; Tokumaru, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Low-Resolution STELab IPS 3D Reconstructions of the Whole Heliosphere Interval and Comparison with in-Ecliptic Solar Wind Measurements from STEREO and Wind Instrumentation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Keller, C.U. (eds. ) Solar and Space Weather Radiophysics:of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference,

Bisi, M. M.; Jackson, B. V.; Buffington, A.; Clover, J. M.; Hick, P. P.; Tokumaru, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p 50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p 50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification. Conclusions: The PPC is an independent and powerful predictor of clinical outcomes of prostate cancer after RT. A risk model replacing T stage with the PPC to reduce subjectivity demonstrated potentially improved stratification.

Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Williams, Scott G. [Peter Maccallum Cancer Centre and University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Kestin, Larry L., E-mail: lkestin@comcast.net [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

2012-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

394

Essays on the Impact of Development on Agricultural Land Amenities and Values in Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Market land prices ignore the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services; hence, too much agricultural land may be developed. Correct land valuation must include these non-market values. Values of ecosystem services provided by the Richland-Chambers constructed wetlands are assessed through meta-analysis to derive confidence intervals for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for wetland services. Replacement costs are also used to estimate cost savings of creating wetlands to cleanse river water instead of constructing a conventional wastewater treatment facility. Benefit transfer is used to estimate WTP for non-market agricultural land amenities. Ecosystem services of runoff in the western and recharge in the eastern part of Comal County based on hydrological models are also calculated. Finally, seemingly unrelated regression is used to quantify the effects of growth on current agricultural land values in Texas. Using two different meta-analysis transfer functions, mean WTP for the Richland-Chambers wetlands are $843 and $999 / acre / year. Estimated 95% confidence interval is $95 to $7,435 / acre / year. This confidence interval clearly indicates the uncertainty associated with valuing ecosystem goods and services. The replacement cost of the Richland?Chambers constructed wetlands is estimated to be $1,688 / acre / year. Aggregate WTP to preserve farm and ranchland non-market amenities in Comal County is estimated to be $1,566 / acre. Using hydrologic models, the runoff is valued at $79 / acre, whereas, recharge value is $1,107 / acre. Development will cause a change in recharge, runoff, and pollution which will decrease societal welfare by $1,288 / acre. Seemingly unrelated regression results show that a percentage increase in population growth in the closest metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is associated with increases in land values of approximately $2 / acre. A one-mile increase in distance from the nearest MSA decreased land values by $4 / acre in 1997, $6 / acre in 2002, and $8 / acre in 2007. The diversity of studies illustrates that a cookbook type of methodology is not appropriate for valuing ecosystem goods and services. On the other hand, development contributes positively to land values through encroachment on agricultural lands.

Machingambi, Memory

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems  

SciTech Connect

Soil microbes play a pivotal role in regulating land-atmosphere interactions; the soil microbial biomass carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and C:N:P stoichiometry are important regulators for soil biogeochemical processes; however, the current knowledge on magnitude, stoichiometry, storage, and spatial distribution of global soil microbial biomass C, N, and P is limited. In this study, 3087 pairs of data points were retrieved from 281 published papers and further used to summarize the magnitudes and stoichiometries of C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass at global- and biome-levels. Finally, global stock and spatial distribution of microbial biomass C and N in 0-30 cm and 0-100 cm soil profiles were estimated. The results show that C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass vary substantially across biomes; the fractions of soil nutrient C, N, and P in soil microbial biomass are 1.6% in a 95% confidence interval of (1.5%-1.6%), 2.9% in a 95% confidence interval of (2.8%-3.0%), and 4.4% in a 95% confidence interval of (3.9%-5.0%), respectively. The best estimates of C:N:P stoichiometries for soil nutrients and soil microbial biomass are 153:11:1, and 47:6:1, respectively, at global scale, and they vary in a wide range among biomes. Vertical distribution of soil microbial biomass follows the distribution of roots up to 1 m depth. The global stock of soil microbial biomass C and N were estimated to be 15.2 Pg C and 2.3 Pg N in the 0-30 cm soil profiles, and 21.2 Pg C and 3.2 Pg N in the 0-100 cm soil profiles. We did not estimate P in soil microbial biomass due to data shortage and insignificant correlation with soil total P and climate variables. The spatial patterns of soil microbial biomass C and N were consistent with those of soil organic C and total N, i.e. high density in northern high latitude, and low density in low latitudes and southern hemisphere.

Xu, Xiaofeng [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Presentation for National Governors’ Association  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Presentation for National Governors’ Association Presentation for National Governors’ Association 1/26/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Presentation for National Governors’ Association WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001 Supply/Demand Forecasts Begin to Show Stock Rebuilding Total OECD Oil Stocks* Fundamentals Explain High Prices U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook Retail Motor Gasoline Prices* U.S. Propane Total Stocks Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices Retail Propane Prices U.S. Natural Gas -. Working Gas in Underground Storage Current Natural Gas Spot Prices: Well Above the Recent Price Range

397

statrpp.dvi  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Statistics Statistics 1 37. STATISTICS Revised September 2013 by G. Cowan (RHUL). This chapter gives an overview of statistical methods used in high-energy physics. In statistics, we are interested in using a given sample of data to make inferences about a probabilistic model, e.g., to assess the model's validity or to determine the values of its parameters. There are two main approaches to statistical inference, which we may call frequentist and Bayesian. In frequentist statistics, probability is interpreted as the frequency of the outcome of a repeatable experiment. The most important tools in this framework are parameter estimation, covered in Section 37.2, statistical tests, discussed in Section 37.3, and confidence intervals, which are constructed so as to cover the true value of a parameter with a specified probability, as described in Section 37.4.2. Note that in frequentist statistics

398

Argonne CNM Highlight: Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Photovoltaic electricity is a rapidly growing renewable energy source and will ultimately assume a major role in global energy production. The cost of solar-generated electricity is typically compared with electricity produced by traditional sources with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculation. Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number, and the assumptions lying beneath that result are rarely reported or even understood. We shed light on some of the key assumptions and offer a new approach to calculating LCOE for photovoltaics based on input parameter distributions feeding a Monte Carlo simulation. In this framework, the influence of assumptions and confidence intervals becomes clear.

399

Variability of EGRET Gamma-Ray Sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The variability of the high-energy gamma ray sources in the Third EGRET catalog is analyzed by a new method. We re-analyze the EGRET data to calculate a likelihood function for the flux of each source in each observation, both for detections and upper limits. These functions can be combined in a uniform manner with a simple model of the flux distribution to characterize the flux variation by a confidence interval for the relative standard deviation of the flux. The main result is a table of these values for almost all the cataloged sources. As expected, the identified pulsars are steady emitters and the blazars are mostly highly variable. The unidentified sources are heterogeneous, with greater variation at higher Galactic latitude. There is an indication that pulsar wind nebulae are associated with variable sources. There is a population of variable sources along the Galactic plane, concentrated in the inner spiral arms.

P. L. Nolan; W. F. Tompkins; I. A. Grenier; P. F. Michelson

2003-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

400

Analysis Of Macroscopic Fractures In Granite In The Hdr Geothermal Well  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Macroscopic Fractures In Granite In The Hdr Geothermal Well Macroscopic Fractures In Granite In The Hdr Geothermal Well Eps-1, Soultz-Sous-Forets, France Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Journal Article: Analysis Of Macroscopic Fractures In Granite In The Hdr Geothermal Well Eps-1, Soultz-Sous-Forets, France Details Activities (0) Areas (0) Regions (0) Abstract: An exhaustive analysis of 3000 macroscopic fractures encountered in the geothermal Hot Dry Rock borehole, EPS-1, located inside the Rhine graben (Soultz-sous-Forets, France), was done on a continuous core section over a depth interval from 1420 to 2230 m: 97% of the macroscopic structures were successfully reorientated with a good degree of confidence by comparison between core and acoustic borehole imagery. Detailed structural analysis of the fracture population indicates that fractures are

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401

December 2000  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook 12/18/00 Click here to start Table of Contents December 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Last Winter’s Price Spike Limited to Northeast Winter Residential Heating Oil Prices Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook Regional Retail Gasoline Prices U.S. Propane Total Stocks Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices U.S. Natural Gas - Working Gas in Underground Storage Natural Gas Prices: Well Above Recent Average Natural Gas Spot Price Outlook Author: Mark J. Mazur, Acting Administrator

402

statrpp.dvi  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Statistics Statistics 1 36. STATISTICS Revised September 2011 by G. Cowan (RHUL). This chapter gives an overview of statistical methods used in high-energy physics. In statistics, we are interested in using a given sample of data to make inferences about a probabilistic model, e.g., to assess the model's validity or to determine the values of its parameters. There are two main approaches to statistical inference, which we may call frequentist and Bayesian. In frequentist statistics, probability is interpreted as the frequency of the outcome of a repeatable experiment. The most important tools in this framework are parameter estimation, covered in Section 36.1, and statistical tests, discussed in Section 36.2. Frequentist confidence intervals, which are constructed so as to cover the true value of a parameter with a specified probability, are treated in Section 36.3.2. Note that in frequentist

403

Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) - Data - U.S. Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What is an RSE? What is an RSE? The estimates in the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) are based on data reported by representatives of a statistically-designed subset of the entire commercial building population in the United States, or a "sample". Consequently, the estimates differ from the true population values. However, the sample design permits us to estimate the sampling error in each value. It is important to understand: CBECS estimates should not be considered as finite point estimates, but as estimates with some associated error in each direction. The standard error is a measure of the reliability or precision of the survey statistic. The value for the standard error can be used to construct confidence intervals and to perform hypothesis tests by standard

404

Statistics  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Statistics Statistics 1 32. STATISTICS Revised April 1998 by F. James (CERN); February 2000 by R. Cousins (UCLA); October 2001, October 2003, and August 2005 by G. Cowan (RHUL). This chapter gives an overview of statistical methods used in High Energy Physics. In statistics we are interested in using a given sample of data to make inferences about a probabilistic model, e.g., to assess the model's validity or to determine the values of its parameters. There are two main approaches to statistical inference, which we may call frequentist and Bayesian. In frequentist statistics, probability is interpreted as the frequency of the outcome of a repeatable experiment. The most important tools in this framework are parameter estimation, covered in Section 32.1, and statistical tests, discussed in Section 32.2. Frequentist confidence intervals, which are constructed so as to cover the true value of

405

2003 CBECS RSE Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

cbecs/cbecs2003/detailed_tables_2003/2003rsetables_files/plainlink.css" cbecs/cbecs2003/detailed_tables_2003/2003rsetables_files/plainlink.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> Home > Households, Buildings & Industry > Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) > 2003 Detailed Tables > RSE Tables 2003 CBECS Relative Standard Error (RSE) Tables Released: Dec 2006 Next CBECS will be conducted in 2007 Standard error is a measure of the reliability or precision of the survey statistic. The value for the standard error can be used to construct confidence intervals and to perform hypothesis tests by standard statistical methods. Relative Standard Error (RSE) is defined as the standard error (square root of the variance) of a survey estimate, divided by the survey estimate and multiplied by 100. (More information on RSEs)

406

Rigorous luminosity function determination in presence of a background: theory and application to two intermediate redshift clusters  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper we present a rigorous derivation of the luminosity function (LF) in presence of a background. Our approach is free from the logical contradictions of assigning negative values to positively defined quantities and avoid the use of incorrect estimates for the 68 % confidence interval (error bar). It accounts for Poisson fluctuations ignored in previous approaches and does not requires binning of the data. The method is extensible to more complex situations, does not require the existence of an environment--independent LF, and clarifies issues common to field LF derivations. We apply the method to two clusters of galaxies at intermediate redshift (z~0.3) with among the deepest and widest K_s observations ever taken. Finally, we point out short-comings of flip--flopping magnitudes.

S. Andreon; G. Punzi; A. Grado

2005-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

407

Short-Course Accelerated Radiotherapy in Palliative Treatment of Advanced Pelvic Malignancies: A Phase I Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: To define the maximum tolerated dose of a conformal short-course accelerated radiotherapy in patients with symptomatic advanced pelvic cancer. Methods and Materials: A phase I trial in 3 dose-escalation steps was designed: 14 Gy (3.5-Gy fractions), 16 Gy (4-Gy fractions), and 18 Gy (4.5-Gy fractions). The eligibility criteria included locally advanced and/or metastatic pelvic cancer and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of {30% visual analog scale reduction. The overall response rate for pain was 91.67% (95% confidence interval 52.4%-99.9%). Conclusions: Conformal short course radiotherapy in twice-daily fractions for 2 consecutive days was well tolerated up to a total dose of 18 Gy. A phase II study is ongoing to confirm the efficacy on symptom control and quality of life indexes.

Caravatta, Luciana [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Padula, Gilbert D.A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Lacks Cancer Center Saint Mary's Health Care, Grand Rapids, MI (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Lacks Cancer Center Saint Mary's Health Care, Grand Rapids, MI (United States); Macchia, Gabriella, E-mail: gmacchia@rm.unicatt.it [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Ferrandina, Gabriella [Department of Gynecologic Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Gynecologic Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Bonomo, Pierluigi; Deodato, Francesco; Massaccesi, Mariangela [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Mignogna, Samantha; Tambaro, Rosa [Department of Palliative Therapies, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Palliative Therapies, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Rossi, Marco [Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care, and Pain Medicine, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy)] [Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care, and Pain Medicine, Fondazione di Ricercae Cura 'Giovanni Paolo II,' Universita Cattolica del S. Cuore, Campobasso (Italy); Flocco, Mariano ['Madre Teresa di Calcutta' Hospice, Larino (Italy)] ['Madre Teresa di Calcutta' Hospice, Larino (Italy); Scapati, Andrea [Department of Radiation Oncology, 'San Francesco' Hospital, Nuoro (Italy)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, 'San Francesco' Hospital, Nuoro (Italy); and others

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

INVESTIGATION OF THE ERRORS IN SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY PROPER-MOTION MEASUREMENTS USING SAMPLES OF QUASARS  

SciTech Connect

We investigate in detail the probability distribution function (pdf) of the proper-motion measurement errors in the SDSS+USNO-B proper-motion catalog of Munn et al. using clean quasar samples. The pdf of the errors is well represented by a Gaussian core with extended wings, plus a very small fraction (<0.1%) of 'outliers'. We find that while formally the pdf could be well fit by a five-parameter fitting function, for many purposes it is also adequate to represent the pdf with a one-parameter approximation to this function. We apply this pdf to the calculation of the confidence intervals on the true proper motion for an SDSS+USNO-B proper-motion measurement, and discuss several scientific applications of the SDSS proper-motion catalog. Our results have various applications in studies of the galactic structure and stellar kinematics. Specifically, they are crucial for searching hyper-velocity stars in the Galaxy.

Dong Ruobing; Gunn, James; Knapp, Gillian [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Rockosi, Constance [UCO/Lick Observatory, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Blanton, Michael, E-mail: rdong@astro.princeton.edu [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

2011-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

409

Probabilistic evaluation of mobile source air pollution: Volume 1 -- Probabilistic modeling of exhaust emissions from light duty gasoline vehicles. Final report, 1 August 1994--31 May 1997  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Emission factors for light duty gasoline vehicles (LDGV) are typically developed based upon laboratory testing of vehicles for prescribed driving cycles. In this project, selected LDGV data sets and modeling assumptions used to develop Mobile5a were revisited. Probabilistic estimates of the inter-vehicle variability in emissions and the uncertainty in fleet average emissions for selected vehicle types and driving cycles were made. Case studies focused upon probabilistic analysis of base emission rate and speed correction estimates used in Mobile5a for throttle body and port fuel injected vehicles. Based upon inter-vehicle variability in the data sets and a probabilistic model in which the standard error terms of regression models employed in Mobile5a are also considered, the uncertainty was estimated for average emission factors for the selected fleets of light duty gasoline vehicles. The 90 percent confidence interval for the average emission factor varied in range with pollutant and driving cycle.

Frey, H.C.; Kini, M.D.

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

November 2010The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated. Yet at times in the past, and very powerfully in the last two years, many voices have noted that the two price series appear to have “decoupled”. We explore the apparent contradiction between these two views. We find that recognition of the statistical fact of cointegration needs to be tempered with two additional points. First, there is an enormous amount of unexplained volatility in natural gas prices at short horizons. Hence, any simple formulaic relationship between the prices will leave a large portion of the natural gas price unexplained. Second, the cointegrating relationship does not appear to be stable through time. The prices may be tied, but the relationship can shift dramatically over time. Therefore, although the two price series may be cointegrated, the confidence intervals for both short and long time horizons are large.

David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons; David J. Ramberg; John E. Parsons

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Search for first-generation leptoquarks in the jets and missing transverse energy topology in proton-antiproton collisions at center-of-mass energy 1.96 TeV  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors performed a search for the pair production of first-generation leptoquarks using 191 pb{sup -1} of proton-antiproton collision data recorded by the CDF experiment during Run II of the Tevatron. The leptoquarks are sought via their decay into a neutrino and quark, which yields missing transverse energy and several high-E{sub T} jets. Several control regions were studied to check the background estimation from Standard Model sources, with good agreement observed in data. In the leptoquark signal region, 124 events were observed with 118.3 {+-} 14.5 expected from background. Therefore, no evidence for leptoquark production was observed, and limits were set on the cross section times the squared branching ratio. Using the next-to-leading order cross section for leptoquark production, they excluded the mass interval 78 to 117 GeV/c{sup 2} at the 95% confidence level for 100% branching ratio into neutrino plus quark.

Tsybychev, Dmitri; /Florida U.

2004-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

The production and certification of a plutonium equal-atom reference material: NBL CRM 128  

SciTech Connect

This report describes the design, production, and certification of the New Brunswick Laboratory plutonium equal-atom certified reference material (CRM), NBL CRM 128. The primary use of this CRM is for the determination of bias corrections encountered in the operation of a mass spectrometer. This reference material is available to the US Department of Energy contractor-operated and government-operated laboratories, as well as to the international nuclear safeguards community. The absolute, or unbiased, certified value for the CRM's Pu-242/Pu-239 ratio is 1.00063 {plus minus} 0.00026 (95% confidence interval) as of October 1, 1984. This value was obtained through the quantitative blending of high-purity, chemically and isotopically characterized separated isotopes, as well as through intercomparisons of CRM samples with calibration mixtures using thermal ionization mass spectrometry. 32 tabs.

Crawford, D.W. (Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Safeguards and Security); Gradle, C.G.; Soriano, M.D. (USDOE New Brunswick Lab., Argonne, IL (USA))

1990-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Fast computation of the performance evaluation of biometric systems: application to multibiometric  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance evaluation of biometric systems is a crucial step when designing and evaluating such systems. The evaluation process uses the Equal Error Rate (EER) metric proposed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO/IEC). The EER metric is a powerful metric which allows easily comparing and evaluating biometric systems. However, the computation time of the EER is, most of the time, very intensive. In this paper, we propose a fast method which computes an approximated value of the EER. We illustrate the benefit of the proposed method on two applications: the computing of non parametric confidence intervals and the use of genetic algorithms to compute the parameters of fusion functions. Experimental results show the superiority of the proposed EER approximation method in term of computing time, and the interest of its use to reduce the learning of parameters with genetic algorithms. The proposed method opens new perspectives for the development of secure multibiometrics systems by speedi...

Giot, Romain; Rosenberger, Christophe

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Automatic Estimation of the Radiological Inventory for the Dismantling of Nuclear Facilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The estimation of the radiological inventory of Nuclear Facilities to be dismantled is a process that included information related with the physical inventory of all the plant and radiological survey. Estimation of the radiological inventory for all the components and civil structure of the plant could be obtained with mathematical models with statistical approach. A computer application has been developed in order to obtain the radiological inventory in an automatic way. Results: A computer application that is able to estimate the radiological inventory from the radiological measurements or the characterization program has been developed. In this computer applications has been included the statistical functions needed for the estimation of the central tendency and variability, e.g. mean, median, variance, confidence intervals, variance coefficients, etc. This computer application is a necessary tool in order to be able to estimate the radiological inventory of a nuclear facility and it is a powerful tool for decision taken in future sampling surveys.

Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Felipe, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Salas, E. [Iberdrola Ingenieria y Construccion (Spain); Martin, N. [ENRESA (Spain)

2008-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

415

Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

2010-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

416

LONG TERM AGING AND SURVEILLANCE OF 9975 PACKAGE COMPONENTS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The mission of the 9975 package, originally designed only for transportation of radioactive materials, has been broadened to include storage at the Savannah River Site. Two components of this package, namely the containment vessel O-rings and fiberboard overpack, require continued integrity assessment under the storage conditions. The performance of the components over time is being evaluated using accelerated-aging studies. Compression stress relaxation (CSR) and leak testing are being used to measure the performance of O-rings. The performance of the fiberboard is being evaluated using compression strength, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and other physical properties. Models developed from the data collected provide an initial prediction of service life for the two components, and support the conclusion that normal service conditions will not degrade the performance of the package beyond specified functional requirements for the first assessment interval. Increased confidence in this conclusion is derived from field surveillance data and destructive evaluation of packages removed from storage.

Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.; Daugherty, W.; Dunn, K.

2009-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

417

Cancer and birth defects surveillance system for communities around the Savannah River Site. Annual progress report  

SciTech Connect

This technical report presents the age-adjusted total, and race and sex specific geographic patterns of cancer mortality for South Carolina (SC) counties utilizing the 1953--1987 average annual age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs). The mortality information was obtained from the State Cancer Control Map and Data Program produced by the National Cancer Institute , Centers for Disease Control and the American Cancer Society. The AAMRs for selected primary sites are classified as significantly different or not significantly different from the corresponding United States and SC mortality rates. Categories for classification of the rates are determined using 95% confidence intervals. Geographic patterns of significantly high county AAMRs are identified and discussed. Individual county rates are not emphasized. The terminology, mortality rates used throughout this report pertains to the 1953--1987 AAMRS.

Dunbar, J.B.

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Cancer and birth defects surveillance system for communities around the Savannah River Site  

SciTech Connect

This technical report presents the age-adjusted total, and race and sex specific geographic patterns of cancer mortality for South Carolina (SC) counties utilizing the 1953--1987 average annual age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs). The mortality information was obtained from the State Cancer Control Map and Data Program produced by the National Cancer Institute , Centers for Disease Control and the American Cancer Society. The AAMRs for selected primary sites are classified as significantly different or not significantly different from the corresponding United States and SC mortality rates. Categories for classification of the rates are determined using 95% confidence intervals. Geographic patterns of significantly high county AAMRs are identified and discussed. Individual county rates are not emphasized. The terminology, mortality rates used throughout this report pertains to the 1953--1987 AAMRS.

Dunbar, J.B.

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

JEL Classification: Q2,Q28,Q41.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study investigates the efficiency of pollution permit markets by conducting an empirical study of the U.S. SO2 market. A hedonicmodel of coal price is estimated by using the coal price data from 1985 to 1998. The estimation results showed that the sulfur premium was in the same order as the SO2 allowance prices in the EPA auction. In addition, for 1997 and 1998, the SO2 allowance prices were in 95 % confidence intervals for a relevant range of sulfur content levels. In 1995, however, the deviation of the SO2 allowance price from the sulfur premium was found. This deviation may have been caused by the market power of the coal mine companies in Montana and Wyoming.

Toshi H. Arimura; I Professors; Edward Foster; Steve Polasky; Frances Homans For Helpful

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Detection of trend changes in time series using Bayesian inference  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Change points in time series are perceived as isolated singularities where two regular trends of a given signal do not match. The detection of such transitions is of fundamental interest for the understanding of the system's internal dynamics. In practice observational noise makes it difficult to detect such change points in time series. In this work we elaborate a Bayesian method to estimate the location of the singularities and to produce some confidence intervals. We validate the ability and sensitivity of our inference method by estimating change points of synthetic data sets. As an application we use our algorithm to analyze the annual flow volume of the Nile River at Aswan from 1871 to 1970, where we confirm a well-established significant transition point within the time series.

Schütz, Nadine

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "nymex confidence interval" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

NASEO Energy Outlook Conference  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

NASEO Energy Outlook Conference NASEO Energy Outlook Conference 2/26/01 Click here to start Table of Contents NASEO Energy Outlook Conference Retail Product Prices Are Driven By Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001 Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Vary With Seasons and Supply/Demand Balance U.S. Distillate Inventories Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Both Distillate Supply and Demand Reached Extraordinary Levels This Winter Heating Oil Imports Strong in 2001 Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices Consumer Winter Heating Oil Costs Propane prices Influenced by Crude Oil and Natural Gas

422

Toward a Classical Thermodynamic Model for Retro-cognition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Retro-cognition--a human response before a randomly determined future stimulus--has always been part of our experience. Experiments over the last 80 years show a small but statistically significant effect. If this turns out to be true, then it suggests a form of macroscopic retro-causation. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics provides an explanation for the apparent single direction of time at the macroscopic level although time is reversible at the microscopic level. In a preliminary study, I examined seven anomalous cognition (a.k.a., ESP) studies in which the entropic gradients and the entropy of their associated target systems were calculated, and the quality of the response was estimated by a rating system called the figure of merit. The combined Spearman's correlation coefficient for these variables for the seven studies was 0.211 (p = 6.4x10{sup -4}) with a 95% confidence interval for the correlation of [0.084, 0.332]; whereas, the same data for a correlation with the entropy itself was 0.028 (p = 0.36; 95% confidence interval of [-0.120-0.175]). This suggests that anomalous cognition is mediated via some kind of a sensory system in that all the normal sensory systems are more sensitive to changes than they are to inputs that are not changing. A standard relationship for the change of entropy of a binary sequence appears to provide an upper limit to anomalous cognition functioning for free response and for forced-choice Zener card guessing. This entropic relation and an apparent limit set by the entropy may provide a clue for understanding macroscopic retro-causation.

May, Edwin C. [Laboratories for Fundamental Research, 330 Cowper Street, Palo Alto, California 94301 (United States)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

423

Neoadjuvant Radiation Is Associated With Improved Survival in Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: An Analysis of Data From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: Cancer of the exocrine pancreas is the fifth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation has been investigated in several trials as a strategy for downstaging locally advanced disease to resectability. The aim of the present study is to examine the effect of neoadjuvant radiation therapy (RT) vs. other treatments on long-term survival for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer in a large population-based sample group. Methods and Materials: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry database (1994-2003) was queried for cases of surgically resected pancreatic cancer. Retrospective analysis was performed. The endpoint of the study was overall survival. Results: Using Kaplan-Meier analysis we found that the median overall survival of patients receiving neoadjuvant RT was 23 months vs. 12 months with no RT and 17 months with adjuvant RT. Using Cox regression and controlling for independent covariates (age, sex, stage, grade, and year of diagnosis), we found that neoadjuvant RT results in significantly higher rates of survival than other treatments (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.79; p = 0.001). Specifically comparing adjuvant with neoadjuvant RT, we found a significantly lower HR for death in patients receiving neoadjuvant RT rather than adjuvant RT (HR, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.90; p = 0.03). Conclusions: This analysis of SEER data showed a survival benefit for the use of neoadjuvant RT over surgery alone or surgery with adjuvant RT in treating pancreatic cancer. Therapeutic strategies that use neoadjuvant RT should be further explored for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer.

Stessin, Alexander M. [Tri-Institutional M.D.-Ph.D. Program, New York, NY (United States); Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York, NY (United States); Meyer, Joshua E. [New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY (United States); Sherr, David L. [New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY (United States)], E-mail: dls9003@med.cornell.edu

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

424

Use of Germline Polymorphisms in Predicting Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Response in Esophageal Cancer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: To identify germline polymorphisms to predict concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) response in esophageal cancer patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 139 esophageal cancer patients treated with CCRT (cisplatin-based chemotherapy combined with 40 Gy of irradiation) and subsequent esophagectomy were recruited at the National Taiwan University Hospital between 1997 and 2008. After excluding confounding factors (i.e., females and patients aged {>=}70 years), 116 patients were enrolled to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with specific CCRT responses. Genotyping arrays and mass spectrometry were used sequentially to determine germline polymorphisms from blood samples. These polymorphisms remain stable throughout disease progression, unlike somatic mutations from tumor tissues. Two-stage design and additive genetic models were adopted in this study. Results: From the 26 SNPs identified in the first stage, 2 SNPs were found to be significantly associated with CCRT response in the second stage. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs16863886, located between SGPP2 and FARSB on chromosome 2q36.1, was significantly associated with a 3.93-fold increase in pathologic complete response to CCRT (95% confidence interval 1.62-10.30) under additive models. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs4954256, located in ZRANB3 on chromosome 2q21.3, was associated with a 3.93-fold increase in pathologic complete response to CCRT (95% confidence interval 1.57-10.87). The predictive accuracy for CCRT response was 71.59% with these two SNPs combined. Conclusions: This is the first study to identify germline polymorphisms with a high accuracy for predicting CCRT response in the treatment of esophageal cancer.

Chen, Pei-Chun [Department of Statistics and Informatics Science, Providence University, Taiwan (China); Chen, Yen-Ching [Institute of Epidemiology Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Research Center for Gene, Environment, and Human Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Department of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Lai, Liang-Chuan [Graduate Institute of Physiology, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Tsai, Mong-Hsun [Institute of Biotechnology, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Chen, Shin-Kuang [National Clinical Trial and Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taiwan (China); Yang, Pei-Wen; Lee, Yung-Chie [Department of Surgery, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taiwan (China); Hsiao, Chuhsing K. [Research Center for Gene, Environment, and Human Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Department of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Bioinformatics and Biostatistics Core, Research Center for Medical Excellence, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Lee, Jang-Ming, E-mail: jangming@ntuh.gov.tw [Department of Surgery, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taiwan (China); Chuang, Eric Y., E-mail: chuangey@ntu.edu.tw [National Clinical Trial and Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taiwan (China); Bioinformatics and Biostatistics Core, Research Center for Medical Excellence, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Biomedical Electronics and Bioinformatics, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China)

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Radiation Therapy After Breast-Conserving Surgery: Does Hospital Surgical Volume Matter? A Population-Based Study in Taiwan  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: To examine the association between hospital surgical volume and the use of radiation therapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in Taiwan. Methods and Materials: We used claims data from the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan (1997-2005) in this retrospective population-based study. We identified patients with breast cancer, receipt of BCS, use of radiation, and the factors that could potentially associated with the use of RT from enrollment records, and the ICD-9 and billing codes in claims. We conducted logistic regression to examine factors associated with RT use after BCS, and performed subgroup analyses to examine whether the association differs by medical center status or hospital volumes. Results: Among 5,094 patients with newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer who underwent BCS, the rate of RT was significantly lower in low-volume hospitals (74% vs. 82%, p < 0.01). Patients treated in low-volume hospitals were less likely to receive RT after BCS (odds ratio = 0.72, 95% confidence interval = 0.62-0.83). In addition, patients treated after the implementation of the voluntary pay-for-performance policy in 2001 were more likely to receive RT (odds ratio = 1.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.45). Subgroup analyses indicated that the high-volume effect was limited to hospitals accredited as non-medical centers, and that the effect of the pay-for-performance policy was most pronounced among low-volume hospitals. Conclusions: Using population-based data from Taiwan, our study concluded that hospital surgical volume and pay-for-performance policy are positively associated with RT use after BCS.

Chien, Chun-Ru [Section of Health Services Research, Department of Biostatistics, Division of Quantitative Sciences, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, China Medical University Hospital, and School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Pan, I-Wen [Section of Health Services Research, Department of Biostatistics, Division of Quantitative Sciences, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Tsai, Yi-Wen [Center of Health Policy Research and Development, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, Taiwan (China); Institute of Health and Welfare Policy, National Yang-Ming University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Tsai, Teressa [Center of Health Policy Research and Development, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, Taiwan (China); Liang, Ji-An [Department of Radiation Oncology, China Medical University Hospital, and School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Buchholz, Thomas A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Shih, Ya-Chen Tina, E-mail: yashih@mdanderson.org [Section of Health Services Research, Department of Biostatistics, Division of Quantitative Sciences, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Early Significant Tumor Volume Reduction After Radiosurgery in Brain Metastases From Renal Cell Carcinoma Results in Long-Term Survival  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate survival of patients with brain metastasis from renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after radiosurgery. Patients and Methods: Between 1998 and 2010, 46 patients were treated with radiosurgery, and the total number of lesions was 99. The mean age was 58.9 years (range, 33-78 years). Twenty-six patients (56.5%) had a single brain metastasis. The mean tumor volume was 3.0 cm{sup 3} (range, 0.01-35.1 cm{sup 3}), and the mean marginal dose prescribed was 20.8 Gy (range, 12-25 Gy) at the 50% isodose line. A patient was classified into the good-response group when the sum of the volume of the brain metastases decreased to less than 75% of the original volume at a 1-month follow-up evaluation using MRI. Results: As of December 28, 2010, 39 patients (84.8%) had died, and 7 (15.2%) survived. The overall median survival time was 10.0 {+-} 0.4 months (95% confidence interval, 9.1-10.8). After treatment, local tumor control was achieved in 72 (84.7%) of the 85 tumors assessed using MRI after radiosurgery. The good-response group survived significantly longer than the poor-response group (median survival times of 18.0 and 9.0 months, respectively; p = 0.025). In a multivariate analysis, classification in the good-response group was the only independent prognostic factor for longer survival (p = 0.037; hazard ratio = 0.447; 95% confidence interval, 0.209-0.953). Conclusions: Radiosurgery seems to be an effective treatment modality for patients with brain metastases from RCC. The early significant tumor volume reduction observed after radiosurgery seems to result in long-term survival in RCC patients with brain metastases.

Kim, Wook Ha [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dong Gyu, E-mail: gknife@plaza.snu.ac.kr [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Jung Ho [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Paek, Sun Ha; Chung, Hyun-Tai; Park, Chul-Kee [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chae-Yong [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yong Hwy; Kim, Jin Wook; Jung, Hee-Won [Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

INCREASED OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES UTILIZING SECONDARY/TERTIARY RECOVERY TECHNIQUES ON SMALL RESERVOIRS IN THE PARADOX BASIN, UTAH  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from shallow-shelf carbonate buildups or mounds within the Desert Creek zone of the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to four wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels (111,300-318,000 m{sup 3}) of oil per field at a 15 to 20 percent recovery rate. Five fields in southeastern Utah were evaluated for waterflood or carbon-dioxide (CO{sub 2})-miscible flood projects based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling. Geological characterization on a local scale focused on reservoir heterogeneity, quality, and lateral continuity as well as possible compartmentalization within each of the five project fields. The Desert Creek zone includes three generalized facies belts: (1) open-marine, (2) shallow-shelf and shelf-margin, and (3) intra-shelf, salinity-restricted facies. These deposits have modern analogs near the coasts of the Bahamas, Florida, and Australia, respectively, and outcrop analogs along the San Juan River of southeastern Utah. The analogs display reservoir heterogeneity, flow barriers and baffles, and lithofacies geometry observed in the fields; thus, these properties were incorporated in the reservoir simulation models. Productive carbonate buildups consist of three types: (1) phylloid algal, (2) coralline algal, and (3) bryozoan. Phylloid-algal buildups have a mound-core interval and a supra-mound interval. Hydrocarbons are stratigraphically trapped in porous and permeable lithotypes within the mound-core intervals of the lower part of the buildups and the more heterogeneous supramound intervals. To adequately represent the observed spatial heterogeneities in reservoir properties, the phylloid-algal bafflestones of the mound-core interval and the dolomites of the overlying supra-mound interval were subdivided into ten architecturally distinct lithotypes, each of which exhibits a characteristic set of reservoir properties obtained from outcrop analogs, cores, and geophysical logs. The Anasazi and Runway fields were selected for geostatistical modeling and reservoir compositional simulations. Models and simulations incorporated variations in carbonate lithotypes, porosity, and permeability to accurately predict reservoir responses. History matches tied previous production and reservoir pressure histories so that future reservoir performances could be confidently predicted. The simulation studies showed that despite most of the production being from the mound-core intervals, there were no corresponding decreases in the oil in place in these intervals. This behavior indicates gravity drainage of oil from the supra-mound intervals into the lower mound-core intervals from which the producing wells' major share of production arises. The key to increasing ultimate recovery from these fields (and similar fields in the basin) is to design either waterflood or CO{sub 2}-miscible flood projects capable of forcing oil from high-storage-capacity but low-recovery supra-mound units into the high-recovery mound-core units. Simulation of Anasazi field shows that a CO{sub 2} flood is technically superior to a waterflood and economically feasible. For Anasazi field, an optimized CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total 4.21 million barrels (0.67 million m3) of oil representing in excess of 89 percent of the original oil in place. For Runway field, the best CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total of 2.4 million barrels (0.38 million m3) of oil representing 71 percent of the original oil in place. If the CO{sub 2} flood performed as predicted, it is a financially robust process for increasing the reserves in the many small fields in the Paradox Basin. The results can be applied to other fields in the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent.

Thomas C. Chidsey, Jr.

2002-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

(RPP_standards.ps)  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7 7 10 20 30 40 50 70 100 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.010 0.020 0.050 0.100 0.200 0.500 1.000 Confidence level CL for fits α for confidence intervals 3 4 2 6 8 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 n = 1 χ 2 DEG's Macintosh: Adobe Illus Files/RPP_standards.ps Graphics symbols: 4.25 inches (Sports section) 2.60 inches 3.36 inches (m 1 +m 3 ) 2 10 pt captions 10 pt labels set font basic; set mode vector=off set window x 2 6.5 y 2 5.5 set labels size 1.2 set title size 1.29 set tics size 0.05 4.50 inches (Minireviews) TOPDRAWER template: PARTICLE DATA GROUP NOTES PDG-93-05 10 November 1993 Standards for Adobe Illustrator figures in the Review of Particle Properties

429

Uncertainty analysis of well test data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

During a well test a transient pressure response is created by a temporary change in production rate. The well response is usually monitored during a relatively short period of time, depending upon the test objectives. Reservoir properties are determined from well test data via an inverse problem approach. Uncertainty is inherent in any nonlinear inverse problem. Unfortunately, well test interpretation suffers particularly from a variety of uncertainties that, when combined, reduce the confidence that can be associated with the estimated reservoir properties. The specific factors that have been analyzed in this work are: 1. Pressure noise (random noise) 2. Pressure drift (systematic variation) 3. Rate history effects Our work is based on the analysis of the effects of random pressure noise, the drift error, and the rate history on the estimation of typical reservoir parameters for two common reservoir models: A vertical well with a constant wellbore storage and skin in a homogeneous reservoir. A vertical well with a finite conductivity vertical fracture including wellbore effects in a homogeneous reservoir. This work represents a sensitivity study of the impact of pressure and rate uncertainty on parameter estimation and the confidence intervals associated with these results. In this work we statistically analyze the calculated reservoir parameters to quantify the impact of pressure and rate uncertainty on them.

Merad, Mohamed Belgacem

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Coal - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy Information Administration  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Most Requested Most Requested Change category... Most Requested Consumption Environment Imports & Exports Industry Characteristics Prices Production Projections Reserves Stocks All Reports Filter by: All Data Analysis Projections Weekly Reports Today in Energy - Coal Short, timely articles with graphs about recent coal issues and trends Coal News & Markets Summarizes spot coal prices by coal commodity regions (i.e., Central Appalachia (CAP), Northern Appalachia (NAP), Illinois Basin (ILB), Power River Basin (PRB), and Uinta Basin (UIB)) in the United States. Weekly Coal Production Estimates of U.S. coal production by State based on railroad car loadings data. (archived versions) Archived Versions Weekly Coal Production - Archive Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures

431

Ecological persistence in the Late Mississippian (Serpukhovian, Namurian A) Megafloral record of the Upper Silesian Basin, Czech Republic  

SciTech Connect

The Serpukhovian (Namurian A) stratigraphy of the Ostrava Formation, Upper Silesian Coal Basin, Czech Republic, consists of coal-bearing paralic sediments underlain by marine deposits in a cyclothemic nature similar to those in the Pennsylvanian of Euramerica. The thickness of the formation exceeds 3000 m, in which >170 coals are identified in a foreland basin setting. Fifty-five genetic cycles are identified in the present study, using transgressional erosional surfaces as lower and upper boundaries. Terrestrial plant-macrofossil assemblages are preserved within each cycle, mostly associated with coals, and these represent a sampling of the coastal plain vegetation. New high-precision isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry U-Pb ages on zircons from tonsteins of two coals provide chronometric constraints for the Serpukhovian. Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean clustering and Bayesian statistical classification group macrofloral assemblages into four distinct stratigraphic clusters, with assemblages persisting for <18 cycles before compositional change. Cycle duration, based on Ludmila (328.84{+-}0.16 Ma) and Karel (328.01{+-}0.08 Ma) tonsteins, overlaps the short-period (100 kyr) eccentricity cycle at the 95% confidence interval. These dates push the beginning of the Serpukhovian several million years deeper in time. An estimate for the Visean-Serpukhovian boundary is proposed at similar to 330 Ma. Late Mississippian wetland ecosystems persisted for >1.8 million years before regional perturbation, extirpation, or extinction of taxa occurred. Significant changes in the composition of macrofloral clusters occur across major marine intervals.

Gastaldo, R.A.; Purkynova, E.; Simunek, Z.; Schmitz, M.D. [Colby College, Waterville, ME (United States). Dept. of Geology

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

432

MED 11 Data Use FAQ3  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... the system can adjust confidence scores by modeling the distribution of confidence scores ... of the event agent not the event agent generation (EAG). ...

2011-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

433

Agency datasets monthly list | Data.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Equivalent Grade, Salary Level (10,000 interval), Work Schedule, Type of Appointment, Gender, Age (5 year interval), Length of Service (5 year interval), Employment, Average...

434

Comparative Study of Different {beta}-Radiation Doses for Preventing Pterygium Recurrence  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: To compare the pterygium recurrence rates after treatment with two different {beta}-radiation doses. Methods and Materials: A total of 84 patients with a mean age of 63.0 {+-} 10.3 years (men, 48 eyes, and women, 47 eyes) and initially treated with {beta}-radiation after pterygium excision were recruited. The mean follow-up period was 49.9 {+-} 51.3 months. The patients were assigned to two dose groups: a high-dose (40 Gy) or a low-dose (20 Gy) group. The statistical significance of differences in patient age, pterygium size, and interval between surgery and radiotherapy were analyzed in the 20-Gy group using the Cox proportional hazard model at p < .05. Results: The high- and low-dose groups included 28 and 67 eyes, respectively. Pterygia recurred in 11 eyes, all in the low-dose group. The interval between surgery and radiotherapy was not a significant predictor of recurrence. Smaller pterygia had a lower risk of recurrence than pterygia that had encroached the pupillary area (pterygium located within one-third of the corneal radius from the limbus, corrected hazard ratio [HR], 0.069; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.006-0.766; p = .030; pterygium extending beyond one-third of the corneal radius, corrected HR, 0.188; 95% CI, 0.018-0.696; p = 0.019; and pterygium reaching the pupillary area, corrected HR, 0.184; 95% CI, 0.036-0.929; p = .040). Older age was marginally significant as a negative predictor of recurrence (HR, 0.943; 95% CI, 0.887-1.003; p = .061). No scleromalacia developed during the follow-up period. Conclusions: {beta}-Radiation at 40 Gy was more efficacious than at 20 Gy in preventing pterygium recurrence without scleromalacia development, particularly for large-size pterygia and those in young patients.

Yamada, Takayuki, E-mail: tyamada-oph@umin.ac.jp [Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Hiroshima University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima (Japan); Mochizuki, Hideki [Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Hiroshima University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima (Japan); Ue, Takahiro [Department of Ophthalmology, Hiroshima Red Cross and Atomic Bomb Survivors Hospital, Hiroshima (Japan); Kiuchi, Yoshiaki [Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Hiroshima University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima (Japan); Takahashi, Yasuhiro [Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, Aichi (Japan); Oinaka, Matsuyoshi [Department of Ophthalmology, Hiroshima Red Cross and Atomic Bomb Survivors Hospital, Hiroshima (Japan)

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

15 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 22, 2006) 15 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 22, 2006) Natural gas spot prices increased at almost all locations this week (Wednesday - Wednesday, June 7-14) as wide ranging temperatures across the country affected some regional demand for both heating and air conditioning needs. The Henry Hub spot price rose 27 cents, or about 5 percent, to $6.09 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices also increased for almost all the futures contracts listed. The NYMEX contract for July delivery rose about 62 cents, or about 10 percent, since last Wednesday to settle at $6.590 per MMBtu yesterday (June 14). Natural gas in storage as of Friday, June 9 was 2,397 Bcf, which is 37.9 percent above the 5-year average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined $1.78 per barrel, or about 3 percent, since last Wednesday, trading yesterday at $69.12 per barrel or $11.92 per MMBtu.

436

EIA - Daily Report 9/22/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

23, 5:00 pm 23, 5:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Natural Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 9/23/2005 1,486,877 95.2% 7,204 69.3% 9/22/2005 1,379,000 88.3% 6,595 63.4% 9/21/2005 1,097,357 70.2% 4,713 45.3% 9/20/2005 877,275 56.2% 3,482 33.5% 9/19/2005 837,648 53.6% 3,375 32.5% 9/16/2005 840,921 53.8% 3,384 32.5% 9/15/2005 842,091 53.9% 3,411 32.8% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 9/23/2005 9/22/2005 change Week Ago 9/16/2005 Year Ago 9/23/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 64.19 66.50 -2.31 63.00 48.46 Gasoline (c/gal) 208.56 213.94 -5.38 178.51

437

EIA - Daily Report 9/20/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

0, 3:00 pm 0, 3:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 9/20/2005 877,275 56.2% 3,482 33.5% 9/19/2005 837,648 53.6% 3,375 32.5% 9/16/2005 840,921 53.8% 3,384 32.5% 9/15/2005 842,091 53.9% 3,411 32.8% 9/14/2005 843,725 54.0% 3,518 33.8% 9/13/2005 846,720 54.2% 3,720 35.8% 9/12/2005 860,636 55.1% 3,784 36.4% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 9/20/2005 9/19/2005 change Week Ago 9/13/2005 Year Ago 9/20/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 66.23 67.39 -1.16 63.11 46.35 Gasoline (c/gal) 197.66 204.27 -6.61 189.16 127.45 Heating Oil (c/gal)

438

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

31 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 7) 31 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 7) With the traditional heating season coming to a close, temperatures moderated this week and spot price changes were relatively small at most trading locations. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, March 23-30), the spot price at the Henry Hub increased 6 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1 percent to $7.17. In contrast to the mixed price patterns on the spot markets, the prices of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for delivery through next heating season all rose on the week. After rising 32.4 cents per MMBtu on Tuesday, March 29, the day of expiration, the April NYMEX contract's monthly settlement price was $7.323. The futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub yesterday (Wednesday, March 30) settled at $7.460 per MMBtu, which is 20.5 cents more than last Wednesday's price. Natural gas in storage decreased to 1,239 Bcf as of March 25, which is 19.9 percent above the 5-year average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell $4.53 per barrel or about 9 percent since last Wednesday to $53.96 per barrel or $9.30 per MMBtu.

439

EIA - Daily Report 9/27/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Tuesday, September 27, 5:00 pm Tuesday, September 27, 5:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 9/27/2005 1,512,937 96.9% 7,857 75.5% 9/26/2005 1,527,630 97.8% 7,843 75.4% 9/25/2005 1,501,863 96.2% 8,047 77.4% 9/24/2005 1,500,898 96.1% 7,488 72.0% 9/23/2005 1,486,877 95.2% 7,204 69.3% 9/22/2005 1,379,000 88.3% 6,595 63.4% 9/21/2005 1,097,357 70.2% 4,713 45.3% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 9/26/2005 9/26/2005 change Week Ago 9/20/2005 Year Ago 9/27/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 65.07 65.82 -0.75 66.23 49.64 Gasoline (c/gal) 216.64

440

Rick's Grph.xlsx  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

A Megawatt is No Longer A Megawatt A Megawatt is No Longer A Megawatt Average NYMEX Price By Year June 13 2012 AVERAGE ENTERGY ENTERGY ENTERGY YEARLY ON PEAK SAT/SUN 7 NIGHTS NYMEX GASys a Year On Peak)y - Sundays a Year) 365 Off Peak Days) PRICE 2008 $8.33 $69.30 $55.45 $33.10 2009 $8.55 $70.45 $56.50 $34.85 2010 $5.90 $44.54 $35.87 $23.31 2011 $4.69 $37.39 $29.85 $23.87 2012 $2.57 $25.60 $23.26 $18.63 2013 $3.43 $30.38 $28.67 $23.45 A Megawatt is No Longer A Megawatt Value of Energy Sold into the Entergy Market June 13 2012 VALUE OF VALUE OF VALUE OF 100 MW 100 MW 100 MW BLOCK BLOCK BLOCK ON PEAK ON PEAK OFF PEAK 5 X 16 2 X 16 7 X 8 Yearng Days a Year On Peak) Saturday - Sundays a Year) (Based on 365 Off Peak Days)

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441

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 30 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 6) December 30 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 6) Since Wednesday, December 22, natural gas spot prices have decreased sharply at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 87 cents per MMBtu or about 12 percent to $6.18. Prices declined in each of the last three days of trading (December 27-29) as temperatures moderated following the coldest weather to date of the 2004-2005 heating season, which occurred during the holiday weekend. On Tuesday, December 28, the January futures contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) ended its tenure as the near-month contract, settling at $6.213 per MMBtu. On its first day of trading as the near-month contract, the NYMEX futures contract for February delivery closed yesterday (Wednesday, December 29) at $6.402 per MMBtu, which was down roughly 45 cents or 6.5 percent lower than last Wednesday's price. Natural gas in storage decreased to 2,849 Bcf as of December 24, which is 14.4 percent above the 5-year average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined $0.55 per barrel or about 1.2 percent since last Wednesday, falling to $43.69 per barrel or $7.53 per MMBtu.

442

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 7) 1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 7) With the traditional heating season coming to a close, temperatures moderated this week and spot price changes were relatively small at most trading locations. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, March 23-30), the spot price at the Henry Hub increased 6 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1 percent to $7.17. In contrast to the mixed price patterns on the spot markets, the prices of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for delivery through next heating season all rose on the week. After rising 32.4 cents per MMBtu on Tuesday, March 29, the day of expiration, the April NYMEX contract's monthly settlement price was $7.323. The futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub yesterday (Wednesday, March 30) settled at $7.460 per MMBtu, which is 20.5 cents more

443

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

31, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 7) 31, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 7) Compared with Wednesday, July 23, natural gas spot prices were lower at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on July 30. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 19 cents or about 4 percent to $4.69 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub closed on Tuesday, July 29 at $4.693 per MMBtu, down roughly 18 cents or 4 percent since last Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for September delivery became the near month contract on Wednesday, July 30, settling at $4.668 per MMBtu (or 18 cents less than last Wednesday's price.) Natural gas in storage increased to 2,032 Bcf as of Friday, July 25, which is about 12 percent below the 5-year average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased $0.56 per barrel or roughly 4 percent since last Wednesday to trade yesterday at $30.69 per barrel or $5.29 per MMBtu.

444

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 18, 2006) 1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 18, 2006) Springtime temperatures in most regions of the country this week and slightly lower prices for crude oil led to an easing of natural gas spot prices in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, May 3. On the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, May 3-10), the Henry Hub spot price dropped 6 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1.0 percent, to $6.50. In contrast to spot market activity, trading of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) this week resulted in gains. The NYMEX contract for June delivery increased 29.4 cents per MMBtu on the week to a daily settlement of $6.900 yesterday (May 10). Net injections reported in today's release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report brought natural gas storage supplies to 1,989 Bcf as of Friday, May 5, which is 56.0 percent above the 5-year average inventory for the report week. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased $0.11 per barrel on the week to $72.15 per barrel, or $12.44 per MMBtu.

445

EIA - Daily Report 9/26/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

September 26, 3:00 pm September 26, 3:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 9/26/2005 1,527,630 97.8% 7,843 75.4% 9/25/2005 1,501,863 96.2% 8,047 77.4% 9/24/2005 1,500,898 96.1% 7,488 72.0% 9/23/2005 1,486,877 95.2% 7,204 69.3% 9/22/2005 1,379,000 88.3% 6,595 63.4% 9/21/2005 1,097,357 70.2% 4,713 45.3% 9/20/2005 877,275 56.2% 3,482 33.5% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 9/26/2005 9/23/2005 change Week Ago 9/19/2005 Year Ago 9/27/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 65.82 64.19 +1.63 67.39 49.64 Gasoline (c/gal) 212.92 208.56

446

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

31, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 7) 31, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 7) Compared with Wednesday, July 23, natural gas spot prices were lower at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on July 30. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 19 cents or about 4 percent to $4.69 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub closed on Tuesday, July 29 at $4.693 per MMBtu, down roughly 18 cents or 4 percent since last Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for September delivery became the near month contract on Wednesday, July 30, settling at $4.668 per MMBtu (or 18 cents less than last Wednesday's price.) Natural gas in storage increased to 2,032 Bcf as of Friday, July 25, which is about 12 percent below the 5-year

447

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, 2001 7, 2001 Last week was a week like no other, as both financial and energy markets were disrupted Tuesday morning by the attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) and the Pentagon. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), located within four blocks of the WTC, closed almost immediately after the first attack; spot markets throughout the country closed soon after news of the attacks reached them. Futures trading did not resume until Friday, and then only in an abbreviated session using the NYMEX ACCESS system. Regular, open-outcry trading resumed at around 11:30 AM today (Monday, September 17). Cash markets did re-open last Wednesday, and continued to operate, albeit at reduced activity levels, through the rest of the week. Temperatures in most parts of the country were seasonable early in the week, but by week's end were falling in the Northeast and the Midwest as a cold front moved down from the north. (See Temperature Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map) At the Henry Hub, spot prices gained 6 cents from the preceding week, ending trading on Friday at $2.41 per MMBtu. In its one day of open-outcry trading, the futures contract for October delivery fell $0.108 per MMBtu to settle at $2.392. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped slightly on Monday to $27.65 per barrel, or $4.77 per MMBtu.

448

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

23, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 30, 2007) 23, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 30, 2007) Natural gas spot and futures prices eased this report week (Wednesday to Wednesday, August 15-22), as Hurricane Dean failed to have a significant impact on U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico and moderate temperatures limited demand. On the week, the Henry Hub spot price declined $1.46 per MMBtu, or 20 percent, to $5.84. Trading of futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) also resulted in large price decreases. The NYMEX contract for September delivery decreased $1.286 per MMBtu on the week to a daily settlement of $5.578 yesterday (August 22). Working gas inventories reported in today's release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report were 2,926 Bcf as of Friday, August 17, which is 12.8 percent above the 5-year average inventory for the report week. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased $4.06 per barrel on the week to $69.30 per barrel, or $11.95 per MMBtu.

449

EIA - Daily Report 9/28/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 28, 4:00 pm September 28, 4:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 9/28/2005 1,511,715 96.8% 8,072 77.2% 9/27/2005 1,512,937 96.9% 7,857 75.5% 9/26/2005 1,527,630 97.8% 7,843 75.4% 9/25/2005 1,501,863 96.2% 8,047 77.4% 9/24/2005 1,500,898 96.1% 7,488 72.0% 9/23/2005 1,486,877 95.2% 7,204 69.3% 9/22/2005 1,379,000 88.3% 6,595 63.4% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 9/28/2005 9/27/2005 change Week Ago 9/21/2005 Year Ago 9/28/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 66.35 65.07 +1.28 66.80 49.90 Gasoline (c/gal) 234.50 216.64

450

EIA - Daily Report 10/4/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4, 4:00 pm 4, 4:00 pm Shut-in Status Date Shut-in Oil (bbl/d) % of Total Federal GOM Shut-in Gas (mmcf/d) % of Total Federal GOM 10/4/2005 1,349,617 86.4% 7,170 68.9% 10/3/2005 1,391,926 89.1% 7,495 72.1% 9/30/2005 1,467,577 94.0% 7,941 76.4% 9/29/2005 1,478,780 94.7% 7,980 76.7% 9/28/2005 1,511,715 96.8% 8,072 77.2% 9/27/2005 1,512,937 96.9% 7,857 75.5% 9/26/2005 1,527,630 97.8% 7,843 75.4% 9/24/2005 1,500,898 96.1% 7,488 72.0% 9/23/2005 1,486,877 95.2% 7,204 69.3% source: Minerals Management Service graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan figure data Prices graph of oil and gas prices figure data graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel figure data NYMEX Futures Prices 10/3/2005 10/3/2005 change Week Ago 9/27/2005 Year Ago 10/4/2004 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl)

451

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ASSESSING THE UNCERTAINTY IN TANK 18-F WALL SAMPLES  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tank 18-F in the F-Area Tank Farm at the Savannah River Site (SRS) has had measurements taken from its inner vertical sides in order to determine the level of radionuclide and other analyte concentrations attached to the tank walls. In all, three samples have been obtained by drilling shallow holes into the carbon steel walls and consolidating the material. An Upper Wall Sample (Sample ID: Tk 18-1) was formed by combining two drill samples taken at a height of 17 ft above the tank floor, and a Lower Wall Sample (Sample ID: SPD4) was formed by combining two drill samples taken between 10 and 12 ft above the tank floor. A Scale Sample (Sample ID: Tk 18-2) was formed by combining 5 drill samples obtained between 6 and 7 ft above the tank floor. Photographs of the sampled material and a more detailed description of the samples and the concentration results are presented by Hay and others [2009]. The objective of this report is to determine a method and use it to place an upper confidence bound on the concentrations in the wall samples using only the currently available sample information. None of the three wall locations (tank heights) has been measured more than once. For radionuclides, only the variation among the concentrations per unit mass (g) of the wall samples, ignoring locations, or the variation among the concentrations of the floor samples are possibilities for establishing an upper confidence bound. The wall samples and floor samples were examined for comparability by (a) observing whether the wall sample concentrations fell inside the footprints created by prediction intervals for floor sample radionuclide concentrations and (b) whether the variation among the wall samples was approximately the same as the variation among floor samples. Most of the radionuclide concentrations satisfied (a) but the variation among radionuclide concentrations (b) was smaller for the floor samples. Consequently, upper 95% confidence bounds were established separately for radionuclide concentrations at each of the sampled tank heights using the conservatively estimated variation among the wall samples. A final step to convert concentrations by unit mass (g) to concentrations by sq ft was performed for the Upper Wall Sample and the Lower Wall Sample regions of the tank wall. The Upper Wall Sample and the Lower Wall Sample were not measured for elemental constituents. Consequently, the only possibility for establishing an upper bound for nonradionuclide concentrations for the Scale Sample was using the concentrations from floor samples. However, most non-radionuclide wall concentrations failed to fall within the footprint generated prediction intervals based on the non-radionuclide concentrations for the floor samples. The report concludes that there is no way to establish upper confidence bounds for elemental constituents attached to the inner liner of Tank 18-F based on currently available data.

Shine, G.

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

452

Use of Dual Frequency Identification Sonar to Determine Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Escapement in the Secesh River, Idaho ; Annual Report, January 2008 – December 2008.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1992 (NMFS 1992). The Secesh River represents the only stream in the Snake River basin where natural origin (wild) salmon escapement monitoring occurs at the population level, absent a supplementation program. As such the Secesh River has been identified as a long term salmon escapement and productivity monitoring site by the Nez Perce Tribe Department of Fisheries Resources Management. Salmon managers will use this data for effective population management and evaluation of the effect of conservation actions on a natural origin salmon population. The Secesh River also acts as a reference stream for supplementation program comparison. Dual frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) was used to determine adult spring and summer Chinook salmon escapement in the Secesh River in 2008. DIDSON technology was selected because it provided a non-invasive method for escapement monitoring that avoided listed species trapping and handling incidental mortality, and fish impedance related concerns. The DIDSON monitoring site was operated continuously from June 13 to September 14. The first salmon passage was observed on July 3. DIDSON site total estimated salmon escapement, natural and hatchery fish, was 888 fish {+-} 65 fish (95% confidence interval). Coefficient of variation associated with the escapement estimate was 3.7%. The DIDSON unit was operational 98.1% of the salmon migration period. Adult salmon migration timing in the Secesh River occurred over 74 days from July 3 to September 14, with 5,262 total fish passages observed. The spawning migration had 10%, median, and 90% passage dates of July 8, July 16, and August 12, respectively. The maximum number of net upstream migrating salmon was above the DIDSON monitoring site on August 27. Validation monitoring of DIDSON target counts with underwater optical cameras occurred for species identification. A total of 860 optical camera identified salmon passage observations were identical to DIDSON target counts. However, optical cameras identified eight jack salmon (3 upstream, 5 downstream) less than 55 cm in length that DIDSON did not count as salmon because of the length criteria employed ({ge} 55 cm). Precision of the DIDSON technology was evaluated by comparing estimated net upstream salmon escapement and associated 95% confidence intervals between two DIDSON sonar units operated over a five day period. The DIDSON 1 salmon escapement was 145.7 fish ({+-} 2.3), and the DIDSON 2 escapement estimate was 150.5 fish ({+-} 5). The overlap in the 95% confidence intervals suggested that the two escapement estimates were not significantly different from each other. Known length salmon carcass trials were conducted in 2008 to examine the accuracy of manually measured lengths, obtained using DIDSON software, on high frequency files at a 5 m window length. Linear regression demonstrated a highly significant relationship between known lengths and manually measured salmon carcass lengths (p < 0.0001). A positive bias in manual length measurement of 6.8% to 8% existed among the two observers in the analysis. Total Secesh River salmon escapement (natural origin and hatchery) in 2008 was 912 fish. Natural origin salmon escapement in the entire Secesh River drainage was 847 fish. The estimated natural origin spawner abundance was 836 fish. Salmon spawner abundance in 2008 increased by three fold compared to 2007 abundance levels. The 10 year geometric mean natural origin spawner abundance was 538 salmon and was below the recommended viable population threshold level established by the ICTRT (2007). One additional Snake River basin salmon population was assessed for comparison of natural origin salmon spawner abundance. The Johnson Creek/EFSF Salmon River population had a 10 year geometric mean natural origin spawner abundance of 254 salmon. Salmon spawner abundance levels in both streams were below viable population thresholds. DIDSON technology has been used in the Secesh River to determine salmo

Kucera, Paul A. [Nez Perce Tribe Department of Fisheries Resources Management

2009-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

453

Advanced Techniques for Power System Identification from Measured Data  

SciTech Connect

Time-synchronized measurements provide rich information for estimating a power-system's electromechanical modal properties via advanced signal processing. This information is becoming critical for the improved operational reliability of interconnected grids. A given mode's properties are described by its frequency, damping, and shape. Modal frequencies and damping are useful indicators of power-system stress, usually declining with increased load or reduced grid capacity. Mode shape provides critical information for operational control actions. This project investigated many advanced techniques for power system identification from measured data focusing on mode frequency and damping ratio estimation. Investigators from the three universities coordinated their effort with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Significant progress was made on developing appropriate techniques for system identification with confidence intervals and testing those techniques on field measured data and through simulation. Experimental data from the western area power system was provided by PNNL and Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) for both ambient conditions and for signal injection tests. Three large-scale tests were conducted for the western area in 2005 and 2006. Measured field PMU (Phasor Measurement Unit) data was provided to the three universities. A 19-machine simulation model was enhanced for testing the system identification algorithms. Extensive simulations were run with this model to test the performance of the algorithms. University of Wyoming researchers participated in four primary activities: (1) Block and adaptive processing techniques for mode estimation from ambient signals and probing signals, (2) confidence interval estimation, (3) probing signal design and injection method analysis, and (4) performance assessment and validation from simulated and field measured data. Subspace based methods have been use to improve previous results from block processing techniques. Bootstrap techniques have been developed to estimate confidence intervals for the electromechanical modes from field measured data. Results were obtained using injected signal data provided by BPA. A new probing signal was designed that puts more strength into the signal for a given maximum peak to peak swing. Further simulations were conducted on a model based on measured data and with the modifications of the 19-machine simulation model. Montana Tech researchers participated in two primary activities: (1) continued development of the 19-machine simulation test system to include a DC line; and (2) extensive simulation analysis of the various system identification algorithms and bootstrap techniques using the 19 machine model. Researchers at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks focused on the development and testing of adaptive filter algorithms for mode estimation using data generated from simulation models and on data provided in collaboration with BPA and PNNL. There efforts consist of pre-processing field data, testing and refining adaptive filter techniques (specifically the Least Mean Squares (LMS), the Adaptive Step-size LMS (ASLMS), and Error Tracking (ET) algorithms). They also improved convergence of the adaptive algorithms by using an initial estimate from block processing AR method to initialize the weight vector for LMS. Extensive testing was performed on simulated data from the 19 machine model. This project was also extensively involved in the WECC (Western Electricity Coordinating Council) system wide tests carried out in 2005 and 2006. These tests involved injecting known probing signals into the western power grid. One of the primary goals of these tests was the reliable estimation of electromechanical mode properties from measured PMU data. Applied to the system were three types of probing inputs: (1) activation of the Chief Joseph Dynamic Brake, (2) mid-level probing at the Pacific DC Intertie (PDCI), and (3) low-level probing on the PDCI. The Chief Joseph Dynamic Brake is a 1400 MW disturbance to the system and is injected for a ha

Pierre, John W.; Wies, Richard; Trudnowski, Daniel

2008-11-25T23:59:59.000Z

454

THE FERMI-GBM X-RAY BURST MONITOR: THERMONUCLEAR BURSTS FROM 4U 0614+09  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Thermonuclear bursts from slowly accreting neutron stars (NSs) have proven difficult to detect, yet they are potential probes of the thermal properties of the NS interior. During the first year of a systematic all-sky search for X-ray bursts using the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope we have detected 15 thermonuclear bursts from the NS low-mass X-ray binary 4U 0614+09 when it was accreting at nearly 1% of the Eddington limit. We measured an average burst recurrence time of 12 {+-} 3 days (68% confidence interval) between 2010 March and 2011 March, classified all bursts as normal duration bursts and placed a lower limit on the recurrence time of long/intermediate bursts of 62 days (95% confidence level). We discuss how observations of thermonuclear bursts in the hard X-ray band compare to pointed soft X-ray observations and quantify such bandpass effects on measurements of burst radiated energy and duration. We put our results for 4U 0614+09 in the context of other bursters and briefly discuss the constraints on ignition models. Interestingly, we find that the burst energies in 4U 0614+09 are on average between those of normal duration bursts and those measured in long/intermediate bursts. Such a continuous distribution in burst energy provides a new observational link between normal and long/intermediate bursts. We suggest that the apparent bimodal distribution that defined normal and long/intermediate duration bursts during the last decade could be due to an observational bias toward detecting only the longest and most energetic bursts from slowly accreting NSs.

Linares, M.; Chakrabarty, D. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Connaughton, V.; Bhat, P. N.; Briggs, M. S.; Preece, R. [CSPAR and Physics Department, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Jenke, P.; Kouveliotou, C.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A. [Space Science Office, VP62, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Van der Horst, A. J. [Astronomical Institute 'Anton Pannekoek', University of Amsterdam, NL-1090-GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Camero-Arranz, A.; Finger, M.; Paciesas, W. S. [Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Beklen, E. [Physics Department, Suleyman Demirel University, 32260 Isparta (Turkey); Von Kienlin, A. [Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstrasse, Postfach 1312, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 1 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUEL SERVICES SITE ERWIN, TENNESSEE  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on August 22, 2012. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses. The comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER ? 3 indicates that, at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty. The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties. Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. A comparison of split sample results, using the DER equation, indicates one set with a DER greater than 3. A DER of 3.1 is calculated for gross alpha results from ORAU sample 5198W0003 and NFS sample MCU-310212003. The ORAU result is 0.98 ± 0.30 pCi/L (value ± 2 sigma) compared to the NFS result of -0.08 ± 0.60 pCi/L. Relatively high DER values are not unexpected for low (e.g., background) analyte concentrations analyzed by separate laboratories, as is the case here. It is noted, however, NFS uncertainties are at least twice the ORAU uncertainties, which contributes to the elevated DER value. Differences in ORAU and NFS minimum detectable activities are even more pronounced. comparison of ORAU and NFS split samples produces reasonably consistent results for low (e.g., background) concentrations.

David A. King, CHP, PMP

2012-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

456

Lake Roosevelt Fisheries Evaluation Program, Assessment of the Lake Roosevelt Walleye Population 1998 Annual Report, Part D.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A walleye mark-recapture experiment was initiated on Lake Roosevelt in 1997, with the primary objective of estimating the size of the walleye population. The project was continued in 1998 with a revised sampling regime. The primary goals during 1998 were to estimate the size of the walleye population in Lake Roosevelt, estimate the size of the spawning run in the Spokane River Arm, and describe the age structure of the population for use in managing the population and developing a kokanee bioenergetics model. Secondary objectives included: determining walleye movements, back-calculating growth rates, estimating mortality rates, determining walleye condition, and estimating walleye young-of-the-year (YOY) production in the Spokane River Arm. All walleye, {ge} 150 mm TL, were marked with individually numbered Floy{reg_sign} tags, during five passes through the reservoir. The passes occurred between April 1st and September 16th, 1998. The most unbiased estimate of walleye abundance in Lake Roosevelt, 186,482 (40,113 {le} N {le} 943,213), was obtained using the Mtb model of the CAPTURE program. The most unbiased estimate of the size of the walleye spawning run in the Spokane River Arm, 27,345 (1,535 {le} N {le} 57,519), was calculated using the Jolly-Seber model. The abundance estimates appeared reasonable, but they had wide 95 % confidence intervals. Wide confidence intervals were attributed to low capture probabilities. Coefficient of variation (CV) values for both estimates indicated that they were not acceptable for general management, not to mention research. Despite the CV value, we felt that the reservoir estimate was reasonable and that it was the best possible, without a large increase in effort and money. The spawning run estimate could have been improved by a small increase in effort. Ages of walleye in Lake Roosevelt ranged from 0 to 13 years. Growth, mortality, and condition were all average when compared to other walleye producing waters. We recommended that there be no changes in the management of the Lake Roosevelt walleye population and that three separate values of walleye abundance be used in the calculation of the kokanee bioenergetics model.

McLellan, Jason G.; Moffatt, Holly J.; Scholz, Allan T.

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

A Method to Estimate the Chronic Health Impact of Air Pollutants in U.S.  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

A Method to Estimate the Chronic Health Impact of Air Pollutants in U.S. A Method to Estimate the Chronic Health Impact of Air Pollutants in U.S. Residences Title A Method to Estimate the Chronic Health Impact of Air Pollutants in U.S. Residences Publication Type Journal Article Refereed Designation Refereed LBNL Report Number LBNL-5267E Year of Publication 2011 Authors Logue, Jennifer M., Phillip N. Price, Max H. Sherman, and Brett C. Singer Journal Environmental Health Perspectives Volume 120 Start Page 216 Pagination 216-222 Date Published 11/2011 Keywords air toxics, criteria pollutants, DALYs, exposure, impact assessment, indoor air pollutants, indoor air quality Abstract Background: Indoor air pollutants (IAPs) cause multiple health impacts. Prioritizing mitigation options that differentially impact individual pollutants and comparing IAPs to other environmental health hazards requires a common metric of harm. Objectives: The objective was to demonstrate a methodology to quantify and compare health impacts from IAPs. The methodology is needed to assess population health impacts of large-scale initiatives - including energy efficiency upgrades and ventilation standards - that affect indoor air quality (IAQ). Methods: Available disease incidence and disease impact models for specific pollutant-disease combinations were synthesized with data on measured concentrations to estimate the chronic heath impact, in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), due to inhalation of a subset of IAPs in U.S. residences. Model results were compared to independent estimates of DALYs lost due to disease. Results: PM2.5, acrolein, and formaldehyde accounted for the vast majority of DALY losses caused by IAPs considered in this analysis, with impacts on par or greater than estimates for secondhand tobacco smoke and radon. Confidence intervals of DALYs lost derived from epidemiology-based response functions are tighter than those derived from toxicology-based, inter-species extrapolations. Statistics on disease incidence in the US indicate that the upper-bound confidence interval for aggregate IAP harm is implausibly high. Conclusions: The demonstrated approach may be used to assess regional and national initiatives that impact IAQ at the population level. Cumulative health impacts from inhalation in U.S. residences of the IAPs assessed in this study are estimated at 400-1100 DALYs annually per 100,000 people.

458

Adoption of Preoperative Radiation Therapy for Rectal Cancer From 2000 to 2006: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Patterns-of-Care Study  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: The German rectal study determined that preoperative radiation therapy (RT) as a component of combined-modality therapy decreased local tumor recurrence, increased sphincter preservation, and decreased treatment toxicity compared with postoperative RT for rectal cancer. We evaluated the use of preoperative RT after the presentation of the landmark German rectal study results and examined the impact of tumor and sociodemographic factors on receiving preoperative RT. Methods and Materials: In total, 20,982 patients who underwent surgical resection for T3-T4 and/or node-positive rectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 2000 through 2006 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results tumor registries. We analyzed trends in preoperative RT use before and after publication of the findings from the German rectal study. We also performed multivariate logistic regression to identify factors associated with receiving preoperative RT. Results: Among those treated with RT, the proportion of patients treated with preoperative RT increased from 33.3% in 2000 to 63.8% in 2006. After adjustment for age; gender; race/ethnicity; marital status; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry; county-level education; T stage; N stage; tumor size; and tumor grade, there was a significant association between later year of diagnosis and an increase in preoperative RT use (adjusted odds ratio, 1.26/y increase; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.29). When we compared the years before and after publication of the German rectal study (2000-2003 vs. 2004-2006), patients were more likely to receive preoperative RT than postoperative RT in 2004-2006 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-2.59). On multivariate analysis, patients who were older, who were female, and who resided in counties with lower educational levels had significantly decreased odds of receiving preoperative RT. Conclusions: After the publication of the landmark German rectal study, there was widespread, rapid adoption of preoperative RT for locally advanced rectal cancer. However, preoperative RT may be underused in certain sociodemographic groups.

Mak, Raymond H. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, MA (United States); McCarthy, Ellen P. [Division of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (Israel); Das, Prajnan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Hong, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Mamon, Harvey J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women's Cancer Center, Boston, MA (United States); Hoffman, Karen E., E-mail: khoffman1@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

2011-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

459

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3, 2007 to Thursday, January 30, 2008) 3, 2007 to Thursday, January 30, 2008) Released: January 31, 2008 Next release: February 7, 2008 · Natural gas spot and futures prices increased this report week (Wednesday to Wednesday, January 23-30), as frigid temperatures in much of the country increased demand for space heating. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price increased $0.33 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $8.17. · At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices for futures contracts also registered increases. The futures contract for March delivery rose by about 46 cents per MMBtu on the week to $8.045. · As of Friday, January 25, working gas in storage was 2,262 Bcf, which is 3.9 percent above the 5-year (2003-2007) average. For the report week, EIA recorded the largest implied net withdrawal (274 Bcf) in

460

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. 7, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, November 3, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, October 26, 2011) The weatherman’s promise for chillier temperatures later this week and mention of the word "snow" in some forecasts was the likely catalyst propelling prices upwards this week. In an environment of generally supportive market fundamentals, the Henry Hub price closed up 7 cents for the week to $3.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at $3.590 per MMBtu. Working natural gas in storage rose last week to 3,716 billion cubic

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461

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 1) 4 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 1) Cooler-than-normal temperatures over much of the nation and relative calm in petroleum and products futures markets facilitated a downward slide in natural gas spot and futures prices on the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, June 16-23). At the Henry Hub, the spot price ended the week a dime lower than last Wednesday (June 16), trading yesterday (June 23) at $6.29 per MMBtu. The NYMEX futures contract for July delivery edged down just over 7 cents on the week, settling yesterday at $6.415 per MMBtu. EIA reported that inventories were 1,845 Bcf as of Friday, June 18, which is 0.1 percent below the previous 5-year (1999-2003) average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased on 3 of 5 trading days during the

462

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

, 2010 at 2:00 P.M. , 2010 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, July 8, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, June 30, 2010) Since Wednesday, June 23, natural gas spot prices decreased across the lower 48 States, with declines of as much as $0.68 per million Btu (MMBtu). The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell $0.37, or about 7 percent, averaging $4.53 per MMBtu in trading yesterday, June 30. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub settled yesterday at $4.616 per MMBtu, climbing by $0.24 or about 5 percent since the previous Wednesday. The futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub expired in trading on Monday, June 28, at $4.717 per MMBtu, climbing $0.39 per MMBtu during its

463

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5. 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 11, 5. 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 11, 2007) Natural gas spot prices increased this week at almost all market locations despite dropping crude oil prices and unseasonably mild temperatures that continue to persist in most regions outside of the Rockies. For the week (Wednesday to Thursday, December 27 to January 4), the spot price at the Henry Hub increased 5 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1 percent, to trade at $5.60 per MMBtu yesterday (January 4). The price of the NYMEX futures contract for February delivery at the Henry Hub also increased less than 1 percent this week. The contract closed yesterday at $6.162 per MMBtu, which is 2 cents per MMBtu higher than last Wednesday's price. Natural gas in storage as of Friday, December 29, was 3,074 Bcf, which is 15.3

464

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4, 2002 4, 2002 Spot prices wound up slightly higher for the week (Friday to Friday) after trading within relatively narrow ranges with only regional exceptions. On the NYMEX futures market, the March contract expired on Tuesday, February 26, 2002, at $2.388 per MMBtu, ending with a gain of $0.321 per MMBtu since becoming the near-month contract on January 29. Tuesday also saw the largest increase in spot prices, as a huge Arctic air mass expanded from the Central Plains States into the Midwest and Southwest, bringing some of the coldest temperatures thus far this winter. Daily average temperatures on Tuesday through Thursday in major cities in the Central and Southwest regions ranged from 6 to 18 degrees below normal and up to 8 degrees below normal in the Midwest. Equally sharp temperature drops were seen in the

465

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

16, 2010 at 2:00 P.M. 16, 2010 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, January 6, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, December 15, 2010) Extremely cold weather conditions moving across the country boosted demand for space heating this report week (December 8-15). Spot prices nonetheless decreased in most markets (with the exception of several in the Northeast), likely influenced by storage for winter usage remaining near historical highs and very strong current supplies. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased $0.24 to $4.22 per million Btu (MMBtu). At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices for futures contracts also decreased with expectations of ample supply levels for this

466

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2, 2008 2, 2008 Next Release: May 29, 2008 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview Since Wednesday, May 14, natural gas spot prices decreased at most markets in the Lower 48 States. However, a price rally yesterday (May 21) contributed to price increases at some market locations since last Wednesday, May 14. Prices at the Henry Hub fell 11 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 1 percent, to $11.40 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for June delivery at the Henry Hub settled yesterday at $11.64 per MMBtu, rising 4 cents or less than 1 percent since Wednesday, May 14. Natural gas in storage was 1,614 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of May 16, which is slightly below the 5-year average (2003-2007), following an

467

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 (next release 2:00 p.m. on December 7, 0 (next release 2:00 p.m. on December 7, 2006) Natural gas spot prices increased at nearly all market locations in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, November 22, 2006, with some Midcontinent and Western regions showing increases of more than $2 per MMBtu. With only 3 trading days included in the report week owing to the Thanksgiving holiday, the spot price at the Henry Hub increased by 34 cents, or about 5 percent, to $7.75 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for January delivery settled at $8.871 per MMBtu yesterday (November 29), which is 77 cents, or about 10 percent, more than last Wednesday, and the December 2006 contract expired Tuesday at $8.318 per MMBtu. As of Friday, November 24, 2006, natural gas in storage was 3,417 Bcf or 7.2 percent

468

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2, 2009 at 2:00 P.M. 2, 2009 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: October 29, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, October 21, 2009) Since Wednesday, October 14, natural gas spot prices increased at all market locations in the lower 48 States, with price hikes generally ranging between $0.31 and $1.14 per million Btu (MMBtu). Prices at the Henry Hub climbed 98 cents per MMBtu, or about 26 percent, to $4.80 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for November delivery at the Henry Hub settled yesterday, October 21, at $5.10 per MMBtu, increasing by 66 cents or about 15 percent during the report week. Natural gas in storage was a record-setting 3,734 billion cubic feet

469

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 15, 8, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 15, 2007) Since Wednesday, February 28, natural gas spot prices generally increased east of the Rocky Mountains and decreased in the Rocky Mountains and to the west. On Wednesday, March 7, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $7.52 per MMBtu, gaining 28 cents per MMBtu, or about 4 percent, from the level of the previous Wednesday (February 28). The NYMEX futures contract for April delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $7.366 per MMBtu on Wednesday, March 7, rising about 7 cents per MMBtu, or nearly 1 percent, from the settlement price of $7.300 recorded last Wednesday, February 28. Natural gas in storage was 1,631 Bcf as of March 2, which is 14 percent above the 5-year average. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude

470

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

25, 2001 25, 2001 The industry stock build that began in April has continued into June as the latest weekly estimate indicates that more than 100 Bcf was again added to working gas storage levels. At the same time that natural gas stocks have been increasing, prices have been generally trending down. Prices at many major spot markets moved down most days last week and ended the week between 20 and 30 cents per MMBtu below Tuesday's prices. On the NYMEX futures market, the near-month (July) contract also ended the week down 25 cents from Tuesday's high of $3.981. Much of the country continued to enjoy moderate temperatures during last week, which saw the first day of summer (June 21) prices (See Temperature Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map).

471

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on December 1, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on December 18) Spot and futures prices surged higher for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, December 3-10), as the East Coast was struck by two pre-winter storms that brought record snowfalls to many areas of the Middle Atlantic and New England over the weekend, along with temperatures as much as 10 degrees below normal. At the Henry Hub, the spot price gained $1.20 per MMBtu, or nearly 22 percent, on the week, ending trading yesterday (Wednesday, December 10) at $6.65. On the NYMEX, the futures contract for January delivery increased nearly $1 since the previous Wednesday (December 3), as it rose $0.955 per MMBtu, or almost 17 percent, to settle at $6.711. The Energy Information Administration reported that storage inventories were

472

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on February 3, 2003 (next release 2:00 p.m. on February 20) Spot prices continued at unusually high levels over the past week (Wednesday to Wednesday, February 5-12), although regional trends were mixed. Northeast prices soared, prices in the Midwest and in California rose modestly, and prices at most other market locations declined. At the Henry Hub, the average spot price fell 4 cents per MMBtu for the week, ending trading yesterday (Wednesday, February 12) at $6.20. The NYMEX futures contract for March delivery broke the $6 barrier on Friday, then declined from that level to end trading yesterday at $5.785 per MMBtu. Beginning last Wednesday, the nation returned to the deep freeze after a brief respite of generally warmer-than-normal temperatures that began the

473

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5, 2010 at 2:00 P.M. 5, 2010 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, April 22, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, April 14, 2010) While natural gas spot prices inched lower at a number of market locations, prices at the majority of points in the lower 48 States increased since last Wednesday, April 7. Overall, spot prices in the lower 48 States varied between a 3-percent increase and a 3-percent decrease on the week. The Henry Hub spot price ended the report week yesterday, April 14, 7 cents higher than the preceding week, at $4.15 per million Btu (MMBtu). At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub ended trading yesterday at $4.199 per

474

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0, 2009 0, 2009 Next Release: August 27, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, August 19, 2009) Natural gas spot prices declined this report week (August 12-19), with the largest decreases generally occurring in the western half of the country. The Henry Hub spot price decreased by $0.34 to $3.02 per million Btu (MMBtu). At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices decreased as supplies continued to be viewed as more than adequate to address near-term demand, including heating-related demand increases this winter. The futures contract for September delivery decreased by $0.36 on the week to $3.12 per MMBtu. Working gas in underground storage as of last Friday is estimated to

475

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0, 2009 at 2:00 P.M. 0, 2009 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, December 17, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, December 9, 2009) Natural gas spot prices increased at all trading locations in the lower 48 States since last Wednesday, December 2. The Henry Hub price rose by 60 cents, or almost 13 percent, to $5.27 per million Btu (MMBtu) on the week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the January 2010 natural gas contract rose about 37 cents to $4.898 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub spot price was higher than price of the near-month contract during 3 days of the report week. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract fell by $5.95, or 8 percent, to $70.67 per barrel or $12.18 per MMBtu.

476

Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5, 2002 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 1) 5, 2002 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 1) Since Wednesday, July 17, natural gas spot prices have declined at most locations in the Lower 48 States, generally falling up to 11 cents. However, steeper declines were recorded at some market locations. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub fell 7 cents or 2 percent to $2.91 per MMBtu. Price drops at most locations were driven principally by moderating temperatures since Monday, July 22. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub increased over 15 cents yesterday (July 24) to settle at $3.042 per MMBtu, more than 20 cents greater than last Wednesday's price. Natural gas in storage increased to 2,486 Bcf, which exceeds the 5-year average by more

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