National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for nymex confidence interval

  1. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  2. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  3. Other facts

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2007 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Jan-07

  4. Other facts

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2007 $0 $50

  5. Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals*

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... spray Target studies for Muon Collider Pellet injection studies for ITER Oil reservoirgroundwater simulation studies 56 Conclusions: Turbulent mixing A ...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  7. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  9. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  11. Microsoft PowerPoint - womble2004session1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2

  12. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2

  13. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    11 - December 2012 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3

  14. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 - December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9

  15. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_hh.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 - September 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9

  16. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_wti.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 - September 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2015 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2015 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2015

  17. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    11 - December 2012 January 2011 December 2012 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan

  18. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 - December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2013 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2013 $0

  19. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    09 - December 2010 January 2009 December 2010 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence

  20. NYMEX Futures Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Product Contract 071216 071316 071416 071516 071816 071916 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 46.80 44.75 45.68 45.95 45.24 44.65 ...

  1. SystemConfidence

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  2. Waste Confidence Discussion | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Confidence Discussion Waste Confidence Discussion Long-Term Waste Confidence Update. Waste Confidence Discussion (592.19 KB) More Documents & Publications Status Update: Extended ...

  3. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  4. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  5. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Background The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has compre- hensively reviewed and revised how it collects, estimates, and reports fuel use for facilities producing electricity. The review addressed inconsistent reporting of the fuels used for electric power and changes in the electric power market- place that have been inconsistently represented in various EIA survey forms and publications. For example: * In some cases fuel use by combined-heat-and- power (CHP) plants 1 has been reported

  6. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    15 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.75 2.69 2.69 2.70 2.70 2.61 1997-2015 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.72 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.57 1994-2015 Contract 2 2.75 2.70 2.76 2.76 2.75...

  7. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2.75 3.73 1997-2013 NGPL Composite 8.99 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 2007-2014 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.159 4.382 4.03 2.83 3.73 1994-2013 Contract 2 4.428 4.471 4.09 2.93 3.77...

  8. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 2,505,011 2,156,873 2,086,568 1,663,832 1,385,163 1,313,119 1,459,919 1,528,483 1,360,871 1,507,428 1,561,970 1,965,873 2002 2,319,273 2,090,786 2,096,915 1,734,549 1,470,504 1,453,967 1,602,849 1,582,079 1,408,599 1,506,936 1,766,395 2,214,167 2003 2,532,736 2,346,489 2,041,522 1,603,853 1,379,497 1,240,196 1,464,704 1,512,522 1,299,128 1,417,234 1,616,154 2,108,690 2004 2,512,844 2,358,946 1,952,607 1,609,746 1,441,557 1,356,266

  9. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 4.37 4.0 2.75 3.73 4.37 2.62 1997-2015 NGPL Composite 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 4.97 2007-2015 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.382 4.03 2.83 3.73 4.262 2.627 1994-2015 Contract 2 4.471 4.09 2.93 3.77 4.236 2.684 1994-2015 Contract 3 4.564 4.16 3.02 3.82 4.227 2.739 1994-2015 Contract 4 4.658 4.23 3.11 3.85 4.218 2.792 1993-2015

  10. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 1.99 1.73 1.92 1.92 2.59 2.82 1997-2016 NGPL Composite 3.89 4.48 4.65 5.11 5.25 2009-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 1.93 1.81 2.01 2.08 2.63 2.76 1994-2016 Contract 2 2.0 1.91 2.12 2.23 2.68 2.74 1994-2016 Contract 3 2.07 2.01 2.23 2.31 2.70 2.80 1994-2016 Contract 4 2.13 2.11 2.29 2.36 2.77 2.98

  11. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    07/29/16 08/05/16 08/12/16 08/19/16 08/26/16 09/02/16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.85 2.88 2.77 2.73 2.82 2.94 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.78 2.79 2.61 2.62 2.79 2.83 1994-2016 Contract 2 2.78 2.83 2.66 2.66 2.83 2.93 1994-2016 Contract 3 2.86 2.99 2.84 2.83 2.95 3.12 1994-2016 Contract 4 3.07 3.24 3.09 3.08 3.16 3.26

  12. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    08/31/16 09/01/16 09/02/16 09/05/16 09/06/16 09/07/16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.95 2.95 2.88 2.88 2.88 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.887 2.792 2.792 2.717 2.676 1994-2016 Contract 2 3.003 2.908 2.898 2.842 2.811 1994-2016 Contract 3 3.203 3.113 3.101 3.059 3.046 1994-2016 Contract 4 3.326 3.242 3.226 3.187 3.175 1993-2016

  13. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  14. Computing confidence intervals on solution costs for stochastic grid generation expansion problems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodruff, David L..; Watson, Jean-Paul

    2010-12-01

    A range of core operations and planning problems for the national electrical grid are naturally formulated and solved as stochastic programming problems, which minimize expected costs subject to a range of uncertain outcomes relating to, for example, uncertain demands or generator output. A critical decision issue relating to such stochastic programs is: How many scenarios are required to ensure a specific error bound on the solution cost? Scenarios are the key mechanism used to sample from the uncertainty space, and the number of scenarios drives computational difficultly. We explore this question in the context of a long-term grid generation expansion problem, using a bounding procedure introduced by Mak, Morton, and Wood. We discuss experimental results using problem formulations independently minimizing expected cost and down-side risk. Our results indicate that we can use a surprisingly small number of scenarios to yield tight error bounds in the case of expected cost minimization, which has key practical implications. In contrast, error bounds in the case of risk minimization are significantly larger, suggesting more research is required in this area in order to achieve rigorous solutions for decision makers.

  15. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  16. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  17. VARIABLE TIME-INTERVAL GENERATOR

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gross, J.E.

    1959-10-31

    This patent relates to a pulse generator and more particularly to a time interval generator wherein the time interval between pulses is precisely determined. The variable time generator comprises two oscillators with one having a variable frequency output and the other a fixed frequency output. A frequency divider is connected to the variable oscillator for dividing its frequency by a selected factor and a counter is used for counting the periods of the fixed oscillator occurring during a cycle of the divided frequency of the variable oscillator. This defines the period of the variable oscillator in terms of that of the fixed oscillator. A circuit is provided for selecting as a time interval a predetermined number of periods of the variable oscillator. The output of the generator consists of a first pulse produced by a trigger circuit at the start of the time interval and a second pulse marking the end of the time interval produced by the same trigger circuit.

  18. Nymex futures, options volumes continue growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, R.P. )

    1990-01-22

    The 1980s has been a decade of learning and growth for the members of the energy futures industry. As the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced new contracts, the energy industry gradually came to understand the value of futures trading to any business plan, especially during turbulent times in the mid-1980s. The result: explosive growth in the latter half of the decade. The author discusses how, as a new decade begins, new challenges are unfolding. Increased liberalization and deregulation of the energy market are trends both at home and abroad. There is increased demand for energy while environmental pressures mount and U.S. production declines. Future production and exports of the energy-rich Soviet Union and consumption patterns of the Eastern Bloc countries are uncertain.

  19. NYMEX Coal Futures - Energy Information Administration

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    providing companies in the electric power industry with secure and reliable risk management tools by creating a series of electricity futures contracts fashioned to meet the...

  20. TIME-INTERVAL MEASURING DEVICE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gross, J.E.

    1958-04-15

    An electronic device for measuring the time interval between two control pulses is presented. The device incorporates part of a previous approach for time measurement, in that pulses from a constant-frequency oscillator are counted during the interval between the control pulses. To reduce the possible error in counting caused by the operation of the counter gating circuit at various points in the pulse cycle, the described device provides means for successively delaying the pulses for a fraction of the pulse period so that a final delay of one period is obtained and means for counting the pulses before and after each stage of delay during the time interval whereby a plurality of totals is obtained which may be averaged and multplied by the pulse period to obtain an accurate time- Interval measurement.

  1. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  2. High resolution time interval meter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Martin, A.D.

    1986-05-09

    Method and apparatus are provided for measuring the time interval between two events to a higher resolution than reliability available from conventional circuits and component. An internal clock pulse is provided at a frequency compatible with conventional component operating frequencies for reliable operation. Lumped constant delay circuits are provided for generating outputs at delay intervals corresponding to the desired high resolution. An initiation START pulse is input to generate first high resolution data. A termination STOP pulse is input to generate second high resolution data. Internal counters count at the low frequency internal clock pulse rate between the START and STOP pulses. The first and second high resolution data are logically combined to directly provide high resolution data to one counter and correct the count in the low resolution counter to obtain a high resolution time interval measurement.

  3. Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added

  4. Interval Data Systems Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interval Data Systems Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Interval Data Systems Inc Address: 135 Beaver Street Place: Waltham, Massachusetts Zip: 02452 Region: Greater Boston...

  5. High resolution time interval counter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Condreva, Kenneth J.

    1994-01-01

    A high resolution counter circuit measures the time interval between the occurrence of an initial and a subsequent electrical pulse to two nanoseconds resolution using an eight megahertz clock. The circuit includes a main counter for receiving electrical pulses and generating a binary word--a measure of the number of eight megahertz clock pulses occurring between the signals. A pair of first and second pulse stretchers receive the signal and generate a pair of output signals whose widths are approximately sixty-four times the time between the receipt of the signals by the respective pulse stretchers and the receipt by the respective pulse stretchers of a second subsequent clock pulse. Output signals are thereafter supplied to a pair of start and stop counters operable to generate a pair of binary output words representative of the measure of the width of the pulses to a resolution of two nanoseconds. Errors associated with the pulse stretchers are corrected by providing calibration data to both stretcher circuits, and recording start and stop counter values. Stretched initial and subsequent signals are combined with autocalibration data and supplied to an arithmetic logic unit to determine the time interval in nanoseconds between the pair of electrical pulses being measured.

  6. High resolution time interval counter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Condreva, K.J.

    1994-07-26

    A high resolution counter circuit measures the time interval between the occurrence of an initial and a subsequent electrical pulse to two nanoseconds resolution using an eight megahertz clock. The circuit includes a main counter for receiving electrical pulses and generating a binary word--a measure of the number of eight megahertz clock pulses occurring between the signals. A pair of first and second pulse stretchers receive the signal and generate a pair of output signals whose widths are approximately sixty-four times the time between the receipt of the signals by the respective pulse stretchers and the receipt by the respective pulse stretchers of a second subsequent clock pulse. Output signals are thereafter supplied to a pair of start and stop counters operable to generate a pair of binary output words representative of the measure of the width of the pulses to a resolution of two nanoseconds. Errors associated with the pulse stretchers are corrected by providing calibration data to both stretcher circuits, and recording start and stop counter values. Stretched initial and subsequent signals are combined with autocalibration data and supplied to an arithmetic logic unit to determine the time interval in nanoseconds between the pair of electrical pulses being measured. 3 figs.

  7. Status Update: Extended Storage and Transportation Waste Confidence...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Status Update: Extended Storage and Transportation Waste Confidence Presentation made by David W. Pstrak for the NTSF annual meeting held from May 14-16, 2013 in Buffalo, NY. ...

  8. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  9. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  10. Is a Short-Interval Postradiation Mammogram Necessary After Conservative Surgery and Radiation in Breast Cancer?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Kevin Eradat, Jilbert B.S.; Mehta, Niraj H.; Bent, Chris; Lee, Steve P.; Apple, Sophia K.; Bassett, Lawrence W.

    2008-11-15

    Purpose: To examine, in a retrospective study, whether the initial posttreatment mammogram offers any benefit to patients. Methods and Materials: Patients were selected who had radiation after breast-conservation therapy from 1995 through 2005 and had follow-up mammography at University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) within 1 year of completing radiotherapy. Results of the initial follow-up mammogram were analyzed to determine the yield of this initial mammogram. Results: Between 1995 and 2005, 408 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation had follow-up mammograms at UCLA within 1 year of completion of radiation. Median age at radiation completion was 56.9 years. Median interval between radiation and the initial mammogram was 3.1 months. Ten patients were found to have suspicious findings on the initial postradiation mammogram, prompting biopsy, but only 2 were found to have recurrent cancer. None of those lesions were palpable. In both cases the recurrences were ductal carcinoma in situ. Thus, the yield of the initial postoperative mammogram as compared with physical examination findings is estimated at 0.49 recurrences detected per 100 mammograms performed (95% confidence interval 0.059-1.759). Conclusions: The yield of the initial postradiation mammography at UCLA seems to be low, and only noninvasive carcinomas were found. Our data support the rationale to avoid the initial short-interval postradiation mammography and evaluate patients at 12 months.

  11. Increasing Confidence In Geothermal Heat Pump Design Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shonder, John A; Hughes, Patrick

    1998-03-01

    safety. These conservative designs increase the installed cost of GHP systems, limiting their use and applicability. Moreover, as ground heat exchanger sizing methods have improved, they have suggested (and field tests are beginning to verify) that standard bore backfill practices lead to unnecessarily large ground heat exchangers. Growing evidence suggests that in many applications use of sand backfill with a grout plug at the surface, or use of bottom-to-top thermally enhanced grout, may provide groundwater protection equal to current practice at far less cost. Site tests of thermal properties provides more accurate information, but since these tests are expensive they are usually only performed in large projects. Even so, because soil properties can vary over a distance as small as a few feet, the value of these tests is limited. One objective of ongoing research at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is to increase designers confidence in available ground heat exchanger sizing methods that lead to reliable yet cost-effective designs. To this end we have developed research-grade models that address the interactions between buildings, geothermal heat pump systems and ground heat exchangers The first application of these models was at Fort Polk, Louisiana, where the space conditioning systems of over 4,000 homes were replaced with geothermal heat pumps (Shonder and Hughes, 1997; Hughes et. al., 1997). At Fort Polk, the models were calibrated to detailed data from one of the residences. Data on the energy use of the heat pump, combined with inlet and outlet water temperature and flow rate in the ground heat exchangers, allowed us to determine the thermal properties of the soil formation being experienced by the operating GHP system. Outputs from the models provide all the data required by the various commercially-available ground loop sizing programs. Accurate knowledge of both the building loads and the soil properties eliminated the uncertainty normally associated

  12. 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" | Department of Energy 8 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" This recommendation will ensure restoration of public confidence in a database that has been presented as a reliable tool for the public to understand the status of samples from the

  13. 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Reduction (RACER) Database" 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" This recommendation will ...

  14. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/18: Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SIDDIQA-AGHA,AYESHA

    2000-11-01

    This paper discusses ways in which the navies of both India and Pakistan can cooperate on issues of maritime and naval significance. Although the militaries and navies of the two countries have traditionally seen each other as rivals, international economic developments make cooperation imperative. South Asia requires an approach that can alter the existing hostile images and perceptions. This can be achieved through developing an incremental approach towards confidence building that would allow consistency and help build confidence gradually. The aim is to make confidence building a sustainable activity that would help transform hostile images and build cooperative and nonhostile relationships. This paper proposes a five-step model to suggest what the two navies can do jointly to build confidence, with the ultimate goal of naval arms control. The steps include (1) the Signaling Stage to initiate communication between the two navies, (2) the Warming-Up Stage to build confidence through nonmilitary joint ventures, (3) the Handshake Stage to build confidence between the two navies through military joint ventures, (4) the Problem-Solving Stage to resolve outstanding disputes, and (5) the Final Nod Stage to initiate naval arms control. This model would employ communication, navigation, and remote sensing technologies to achieve success.

  15. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  16. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Karnowski, Thomas P.; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya; Chaum, Edward

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  17. Tables for Trials and Failures with PD for Designated Confidence Level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leach, Janice

    2014-02-01

    Two attachments are provided for performance testing of sensors and other Physical Protection System (PPS) components.#2; The first attachment is a table of Trials and Failures, giving Probability of Detection (PD) for a designated confidence level and sorted by trials.#2; The second attachment contains the same data, sorted by failures.

  18. Alert Confidence Fusion in Intrusion Detection Systems with Extended Dempster- Shafer Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Dong; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2005-03-01

    Extend Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence to include differential weightings of alerts drawn from multiple sources. The intent is to support automated (and manual) response to threat by producing more realistic confidence ratings for IDS alerts than is currently available.

  19. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon ranksum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ? P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ? P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

  20. Measurement of the 2S Hyperfine Interval in Atomic Hydrogen

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kolachevsky, N.; Matveev, A.; Alnis, J.; Parthey, C. G.; Karshenboim, S. G.; Haensch, T. W.

    2009-05-29

    An optical measurement of the 2S hyperfine interval in atomic hydrogen using two-photon spectroscopy of the 1S-2S transition gives a value of 177 556 834.3(6.7) Hz. The uncertainty is 2.4 times smaller than achieved by our group in 2003 and more than 4 times smaller than for any independent radio-frequency measurement. The specific combination of the 2S and 1S hyperfine intervals predicted by QED theory 8f{sub HFS}(2S)-f{sub HFS}(1S)=48 953(3) Hz is in good agreement with the value of 48 923(54) Hz obtained from this experiment.

  1. Picturing probable repression and revenue confidence limits in utility rate cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larson, J.C.

    1984-08-02

    Determining the amount of reduction in demand for a utility service that will result from a given increase in the price for that service, so that the rate increase may be properly adjusted to provide the needed revenue increase, is one of the most complex and difficult-to-understand processes in utility rate making. What is needed, the author of this article says, is a presentational device which is capable of bringing the implications of the pertinent statistics more clearly into view for the typical regulatory commissioner. The purpose of the article is to describe such a device. It involves showing revenue curves and demand-curve confidence limits in such a way that repression and revenue confidence limits are more easily visualized and comprehended.

  2. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  3. OSTIblog Articles in the administrative interval Topic | OSTI, US Dept of

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information administrative interval

  4. Interval From Imaging to Treatment Delivery in the Radiation Surgery Age: How Long Is Too Long?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seymour, Zachary A.; Fogh, Shannon E.; Westcott, Sarah K.; Braunstein, Steve; Larson, David A.; Barani, Igor J.; Nakamura, Jean; Sneed, Penny K.

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate workflow and patient outcomes related to frameless stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: We reviewed all treatment demographics, clinical outcomes, and workflow timing, including time from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT) simulation, insurance authorization, and consultation to the start of SRS for brain metastases. Results: A total of 82 patients with 151 brain metastases treated with SRS were evaluated. The median times from consultation, insurance authorization, CT simulation, and MRI for treatment planning were 15, 7, 6, and 11 days to SRS. Local freedom from progression (LFFP) was lower in metastases with MRI ≥14 days before treatment (P=.0003, log rank). The 6- and 12-month LFFP rate were 95% and 75% for metastasis with interval of <14 days from MRI to treatment compared to 56% and 34% for metastases with MRI ≥14 days before treatment. On multivariate analysis, LFFP remained significantly lower for lesions with MRI ≥14 days at SRS (P=.002, Cox proportional hazards; hazard ratio: 3.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.6-7.3). Conclusions: Delay from MRI to SRS treatment delivery for brain metastases appears to reduce local control. Future studies should monitor the timing from imaging acquisition to treatment delivery. Our experience suggests that the time from MRI to treatment should be <14 days.

  5. Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a {open_quotes}Hot Line{close_quotes} in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.

  6. SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than Weekly File SEP-Request-for-Approval-Form-1Modeling-of-Data-at-Finer-Intervals-than-Weekly.docx More ...

  7. Marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data pairs with embedded confidence metrics

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Van Aardt, Jan; Romanczyk, Paul; van Leeuwen, Martin; Kelbe, David; Cawse-Nicholson, Kerry

    2016-04-04

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as an effective tool for rapid comprehensive measurement of object structure. Registration of TLS data is an important prerequisite to overcome the limitations of occlusion. However, due to the high dissimilarity of point cloud data collected from disparate viewpoints in the forest environment, adequate marker-free registration approaches have not been developed. The majority of studies instead rely on the utilization of artificial tie points (e.g., reflective tooling balls) placed within a scene to aid in coordinate transformation. We present a technique for generating view-invariant feature descriptors that are intrinsic to the point cloud datamore » and, thus, enable blind marker-free registration in forest environments. To overcome the limitation of initial pose estimation, we employ a voting method to blindly determine the optimal pairwise transformation parameters, without an a priori estimate of the initial sensor pose. To provide embedded error metrics, we developed a set theory framework in which a circular transformation is traversed between disjoint tie point subsets. This provides an upper estimate of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) confidence associated with each pairwise transformation. Output RMSE errors are commensurate with the RMSE of input tie points locations. Thus, while the mean output RMSE=16.3cm, improved results could be achieved with a more precise laser scanning system. This study 1) quantifies the RMSE of the proposed marker-free registration approach, 2) assesses the validity of embedded confidence metrics using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and 3) informs optimal sample spacing considerations for TLS data collection in New England forests. Furthermore, while the implications for rapid, accurate, and precise forest inventory are obvious, the conceptual framework outlined here could potentially be extended to built environments.« less

  8. Confidence building measures at sea:opportunities for India and Pakistan.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vohra, Ravi Bhushan Rear Admiral; Ansari, Hasan Masood Rear Admiral

    2003-12-01

    The sea presents unique possibilities for implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan that are currently not available along the contentious land borders surrounding Jammu and Kashmir. This is due to the nature of maritime issues, the common military culture of naval forces, and a less contentious history of maritime interaction between the two nations. Maritime issues of mutual concern provide a strong foundation for more far-reaching future CBMs on land, while addressing pressing security, economic, and humanitarian needs at sea in the near-term. Although Indian and Pakistani maritime forces currently have stronger opportunities to cooperate with one another than their counterparts on land, reliable mechanisms to alleviate tension or promote operational coordination remain non-existent. Therefore, possible maritime CBMs, as well as pragmatic mechanisms to initiate and sustain cooperation, require serious examination. This report reflects the unique joint research undertaking of two retired Senior Naval Officers from both India and Pakistan, sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the International Security Center at Sandia National Laboratories. Research focuses on technology as a valuable tool to facilitate confidence building between states having a low level of initial trust. Technical CBMs not only increase transparency, but also provide standardized, scientific means of interacting on politically difficult problems. Admirals Vohra and Ansari introduce technology as a mechanism to facilitate consistent forms of cooperation and initiate discussion in the maritime realm. They present technical CBMs capable of being acted upon as well as high-level political recommendations regarding the following issues: (1) Delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan and its relationship to the Sir Creek dispute; (2) Restoration of full shipping links and the security of ports and cargos; (3) Fishing within

  9. Sample Preparation Report of the Fourth OPCW Confidence Building Exercise on Biomedical Sample Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Udey, R. N.; Corzett, T. H.; Alcaraz, A.

    2014-07-03

    Following the successful completion of the 3rd biomedical confidence building exercise (February 2013 – March 2013), which included the analysis of plasma and urine samples spiked at low ppb levels as part of the exercise scenario, another confidence building exercise was targeted to be conducted in 2014. In this 4th exercise, it was desired to focus specifically on the analysis of plasma samples. The scenario was designed as an investigation of an alleged use of chemical weapons where plasma samples were collected, as plasma has been reported to contain CWA adducts which remain present in the human body for several weeks (Solano et al. 2008). In the 3rd exercise most participants used the fluoride regeneration method to analyze for the presence of nerve agents in plasma samples. For the 4th biomedical exercise it was decided to evaluate the analysis of human plasma samples for the presence/absence of the VX adducts and aged adducts to blood proteins (e.g., VX-butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and aged BuChE adducts using a pepsin digest technique to yield nonapeptides; or equivalent). As the aging of VX-BuChE adducts is relatively slow (t1/2 = 77 hr at 37 °C [Aurbek et al. 2009]), soman (GD), which ages much more quickly (t1/2 = 9 min at 37 °C [Masson et al. 2010]), was used to simulate an aged VX sample. Additional objectives of this exercise included having laboratories assess novel OP-adducted plasma sample preparation techniques and analytical instrumentation methodologies, as well as refining/designating the reporting formats for these new techniques.

  10. Extending Sensor Calibration Intervals in Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Shumaker, Brent; Hashemian, Hash

    2012-11-15

    Currently in the USA, sensor recalibration is required at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in UK, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors which require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors which need it. The US NRC accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This project addresses key issues in advanced recalibration methodologies and provides the science base to enable adoption of best practices for applying online monitoring, resulting in a public domain standardized methodology for sensor calibration interval extension. Research to develop this methodology will focus on three key areas: (1) quantification of uncertainty in modeling techniques used for calibration monitoring, with a particular focus on non-redundant sensor models; (2) accurate determination of acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and (3) the use of virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

  11. Building trust and confidence in laboratory ES and H policy and practices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graf, J.

    2000-08-01

    This report describes a successful pilot event among LANL employees that can see as a model for employee involvement and community input. The conference was designed to begin building trust and confidence in Laboratory policy and practices in the area of Environment, Safety, and Health (ES and H). It represents a concrete step toward fostering better relationships among Lab employees and creating a new, innovative approach to communication that can also be used to build trust in the larger community. Based on the proven methods of the National Issues Forums and the Jefferson Center Citizen Jury Process, this conference enabled management to learn more about the thoughts and advice of LANL employees, During the course of the day, a random sample of Lab employees representing the LANL workforce learned about issues of health, safety and the environment, and some of the options available to increase trustworthiness in these areas. These Employee Advisors then discussed the options at some length and presented recommendations to senior Lab managers in the role of Decision Makers. At the end of the day, the participants offered their reflections and discussed what they learned during the conference, and Decision Makers responded to what they heard. The most common view expressed by the Employee Advisors was that a bottom-up approach was necessary to develop more relevant ES and H policies. They were unanimous in their desire for more employee inclusion into the decision making process. All Employee Advisors were in support of a Lab wide survey to determine employee concerns about ES and H issues. After listening to the deliberation, the Decision Makers responded with several commitments. The most significant was the pledge to meet with Employee Advisors by the end of February to discuss the status of their recommendations on ES and H policy and practices. The ensuing follow-up meeting explored employee concerns in greater depth resulting in forward-looking action steps

  12. Transits of planets with small intervals in circumbinary systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Hui-Gen; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Hui; Zhou, Ji-Lin

    2014-08-01

    Transit times around single stars can be described well by a linear ephemeris. However, transit times in circumbinary systems are influenced both by the gravitational perturbations and the orbital phase variations of the central binary star. Adopting a coplanar analog of Kepler-16 as an example, we find that circumbinary planets can transit the same star more than once during a single planetary orbit, a phenomenon we call 'tight transits.' In certain geometric architecture, the projected orbital velocity of the planet and the secondary star can approach zero and change sign, resulting in very long transits and/or 2-3 transits during a single binary orbit. Whether tight transits are possible for a particular system depends primarily on the binary mass ratio and the orbital architecture of both the binary and the planet. We derive a time-dependent criterion to judge when tight transits are possible for any circumbinary system. These results are verified with full dynamical integrations that also reveal other tight transit characteristics, i.e., the transit durations and the intervals between tight transits. For the seven currently known circumbinary systems, we estimate these critical parameters both analytically and numerically. Due to the mutual inclination between the planet and the binary, tight transits can only occur across the less massive star B in Kepler-16, -34, -35, and -47 (for both planets). The long-term average frequency of tight transits (compared to typical transits) for Kepler-16, -34, and -35 are estimated to be several percent. Using full numerical integrations, the next tight transit for each system is predicted and the soonest example appears to be Kepler-47b and -47c, which are likely to have tight transits before 2025. These unique and valuable events often deserve special observational scrutiny.

  13. Developing information-space Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yamin, Tughral

    2014-06-01

    The Internet has changed the world in ways hitherto unknown. The international financial system, air, land and maritime transport systems are all digitally linked. Similarly most militaries are fully or partially networked. This has not only sped up the decision making processes at all levels, it has also rendered these systems vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Cyber-warfare is now recognized as the most potent form of non-kinetic war fighting. In order to prevent large scale network-attacks, cyber-powers are simultaneously spending a lot of time, money and effort to erect redundant cyber-defenses and enhancing their offensive cyber capabilities. Difficulties in creating a stable environment in information-space stem from differing national perceptions regarding the freedom of the Internet, application of international law and problems associated with attribution. This paper discusses a range of Confidence Building Measures that can be created between India and Pakistan in information-space to control malicious cyber behavior and avert an inadvertent war.

  14. Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

    2015-10-26

    We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes ofmore » the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. Furthermore, the spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.« less

  15. Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

    2015-10-26

    We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. Furthermore, the spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

  16. On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J.; Hand, Michael S.

    2005-04-01

    Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

  17. Microsoft PowerPoint - 9_ANDY_IMBODEN_NMMSS_2014_Powerpoint_Waste Confidence Update Imboden.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    NRC's Waste Confidence Rulemaking Andy Imboden, NRC, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards Outline  Schedule  Completed Activities  Public Participation  Public Input to Policy Issues  Path Forward 2 Schedule 3 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Scoping for GEIS (Generic Environmental Impact Statement) Develop Draft GEIS and Proposed Rule Public Comment Develop Final GEIS and Final Rule Completed Activities  EIS scoping October 25, 2012 - January 2, 2013  Scoping

  18. Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K.; Kim, M.J.

    1997-04-01

    Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.

  19. Monitoring molecular interactions using photon arrival-time interval distribution analysis

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Laurence, Ted A.; Weiss, Shimon

    2009-10-06

    A method for analyzing/monitoring the properties of species that are labeled with fluorophores. A detector is used to detect photons emitted from species that are labeled with one or more fluorophores and located in a confocal detection volume. The arrival time of each of the photons is determined. The interval of time between various photon pairs is then determined to provide photon pair intervals. The number of photons that have arrival times within the photon pair intervals is also determined. The photon pair intervals are then used in combination with the corresponding counts of intervening photons to analyze properties and interactions of the molecules including brightness, concentration, coincidence and transit time. The method can be used for analyzing single photon streams and multiple photon streams.

  20. Calculating Confidence, Uncertainty, and Numbers of Samples When Using Statistical Sampling Approaches to Characterize and Clear Contaminated Areas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piepel, Gregory F.; Matzke, Brett D.; Sego, Landon H.; Amidan, Brett G.

    2013-04-27

    This report discusses the methodology, formulas, and inputs needed to make characterization and clearance decisions for Bacillus anthracis-contaminated and uncontaminated (or decontaminated) areas using a statistical sampling approach. Specifically, the report includes the methods and formulas for calculating the • number of samples required to achieve a specified confidence in characterization and clearance decisions • confidence in making characterization and clearance decisions for a specified number of samples for two common statistically based environmental sampling approaches. In particular, the report addresses an issue raised by the Government Accountability Office by providing methods and formulas to calculate the confidence that a decision area is uncontaminated (or successfully decontaminated) if all samples collected according to a statistical sampling approach have negative results. Key to addressing this topic is the probability that an individual sample result is a false negative, which is commonly referred to as the false negative rate (FNR). The two statistical sampling approaches currently discussed in this report are 1) hotspot sampling to detect small isolated contaminated locations during the characterization phase, and 2) combined judgment and random (CJR) sampling during the clearance phase. Typically if contamination is widely distributed in a decision area, it will be detectable via judgment sampling during the characterization phrase. Hotspot sampling is appropriate for characterization situations where contamination is not widely distributed and may not be detected by judgment sampling. CJR sampling is appropriate during the clearance phase when it is desired to augment judgment samples with statistical (random) samples. The hotspot and CJR statistical sampling approaches are discussed in the report for four situations: 1. qualitative data (detect and non-detect) when the FNR = 0 or when using statistical sampling methods that account

  1. Update to Risk-Informed Pressurized Water Reactor Vessel 10 to 20 Year Inspection Interval Extension

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Palm, Nathan A.; Bishop, Bruce A.; Boggess, Cheryl L.

    2006-07-01

    The Pressurized Water Reactor Owners Group (formerly the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG)) methodology for extending the inservice inspection interval for welds in pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was introduced as ICONE12-49429. The paper presented a risk informed basis for extending the interval between inspections from the current interval of 10 years to 20 years. In the paper presented at ICONE-12, results of pilot studies on typical Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) designs of PWR vessels showed that the change in risk associated with the proposed inspection interval extension was within the guidelines specified in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.174 for an acceptably small change in risk. Since the methodology was originally presented, the evaluation has been updated to incorporate the latest changes in the NRC Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) Risk Reevaluation Program and expanded to include the Babcock and Wilcox NSSS RPV design. The results of these evaluations demonstrate that the proposed RPV inspection interval extension remains a viable option for the industry. The updates to the methodology and input, pilot plant evaluations, results, process for demonstrating applicability of the pilot plant analysis to non-pilot lead plants and lessons learned from the evaluations performed are summarized in this paper. (authors)

  2. Maximal tractable subclasses of Allen`s interval algebra: Preliminary report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drakengren, T.; Jonsson, P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper continues Nebel and Burckert`s investigation of Allen`s interval algebra by presenting nine more maximal tractable subclasses of the algebra (provided that P {ne} NP), in addition to their previously reported ORD-Horn subclass. Furthermore, twelve tractable subclasses are identified, whose maximality is riot decided. Four of these can express the notion of sequentiality between intervals, which is not possible in the ORD-Horn algebra. The satisfiability algorithm, which is common for all the algebras, is shown to be linear.

  3. PHASER 2.10 methodology for dependence, importance, and sensitivity: The role of scale factors, confidence factors, and extremes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, J.A.

    1996-09-01

    PHASER (Probabilistic Hybrid Analytical System Evaluation Routine) is a software tool that has the capability of incorporating subjective expert judgment into probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) along with conventional data inputs. An earlier report described the PHASER methodology, but only gave a cursory explanation about how dependence was incorporated in Version 1.10 and about how ``Importance`` and ``Sensitivity`` measures were to be incorporated in Version 2.00. A more detailed description is given in this report. The basic concepts involve scale factors and confidence factors that are associated with the stochastic variability and subjective uncertainty (which are common adjuncts used in PSA), and the safety risk extremes that are crucial to safety assessment. These are all utilized to illustrate methodology for incorporating dependence among analysis variables in generating PSA results, and for Importance and Sensitivity measures associated with the results that help point out where any major sources of safety concern arise and where any major sources of uncertainty reside, respectively.

  4. Waste Confidence Discussion

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Washington Recovery Act State Memo Washington Recovery Act State Memo Washington State has substantial natural resources, including biomass, wind, geothermal, and hydroelectric power. The American Recovery & Reinvestment Act (ARRA)is making a meaningful down payment on the nation's energy and environmental future. The Recovery Act investments in Washington are supporting a broad range of clean energy projects from energy efficiency and the smart grid to wind, biomass, and geothermal, as well

  5. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/12: ENTNEA: A Concept for Enhancing Nuclear Transparency for Confidence Building in Northeast Asia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nam, Man-Kwon; Shin, Sung-Tack

    1999-06-01

    Nuclear energy continues to be a strong and growing component of economic development in Northeast Asia. A broad range of nuclear energy systems already exists across the region and vigorous growth is projected. Associated with these capabilities and plans are various concerns about operational safety, environmental protection, and accumulation of spent fuel and other nuclear materials. We consider cooperative measures that might address these concerns. The confidence building measures suggested here center on the sharing of information to lessen concerns about nuclear activities or to solve technical problems. These activities are encompassed by an Enhanced Nuclear Transparency in Northeast Asia (ENTNEA) concept that would be composed of near-term, information-sharing activities and an eventual regional institution. The near-term activities would address specific concerns and build a tradition of cooperation; examples include radiation measurements for public safety and emergency response, demonstration of safe operations at facilities and in transportation, and material security in the back end of the fuel cycle. Linkages to existing efforts and organizations would be sought to maximize the benefits of cooperation. In the longer term, the new cooperative tradition might evolve into an ENTNEA institution. In institutional form, ENTNEA could combine the near-term activities and new cooperative activities, which might require an institutional basis, for the mutual benefit and security of regional parties.

  6. Multiwell Experiment: I, The marine interval of the Mesaverde Formation: Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1987-04-01

    The Department of Energy's Multiwell Experiment is a field laboratory in the Piceance Basin of Colorado which has two overall objectives: to characterize the low permeability gas reservoirs in the Mesaverde Formation and to develop technology for their production. Different depositional environments have created distinctly different reservoirs in the Mesaverde, and MWX has addressed each of these in turn. This report presents a comprehensive summary of results from the lowermost interval: the marine interval which lies between 7450 and 8250 ft at the MWX site. Separate sections of this report are background and summary; site description and operations; geology; log analysis; core analysis; in situ stress; well testing, analysis and reservoir evaluation; and a bibliography. Additional detailed data, results, and data file references are given on microfiche in several appendices.

  7. Interval Data Analysis with the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taasevigen, Danny J.; Katipamula, Srinivas; Koran, William

    2011-07-07

    Analyzing whole building interval data is an inexpensive but effective way to identify and improve building operations, and ultimately save money. Utilizing the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM) add-in for Microsoft Excel, building operators and managers can begin implementing changes to their Building Automation System (BAS) after trending the interval data. The two data components needed for full analyses are whole building electricity consumption (kW or kWh) and outdoor air temperature (OAT). Using these two pieces of information, a series of plots and charts and be created in ECAM to monitor the buildings performance over time, gain knowledge of how the building is operating, and make adjustments to the BAS to improve efficiency and start saving money.

  8. A survey of radiographers' confidence and self-perceived accuracy in frontline image interpretation and their continuing educational preferences

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neep, Michael J; Steffens, Tom; Owen, Rebecca; McPhail, Steven M

    2014-06-15

    The provision of a written comment on traumatic abnormalities of the musculoskeletal system detected by radiographers can assist referrers and may improve patient management, but the practice has not been widely adopted outside the United Kingdom. The purpose of this study was to investigate Australian radiographers' perceptions of their readiness for practice in a radiographer commenting system and their educational preferences in relation to two different delivery formats of image interpretation education, intensive and non-intensive. A cross-sectional web-based questionnaire was implemented between August and September 2012. Participants included radiographers with experience working in emergency settings at four Australian metropolitan hospitals. Conventional descriptive statistics, frequency histograms, and thematic analysis were undertaken. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test examined whether a difference in preference ratings between intensive and non-intensive education delivery was evident. The questionnaire was completed by 73 radiographers (68% response rate). Radiographers reported higher confidence and self-perceived accuracy to detect traumatic abnormalities than to describe traumatic abnormalities of the musculoskeletal system. Radiographers frequently reported high desirability ratings for both the intensive and the non-intensive education delivery, no difference in desirability ratings for these two formats was evident (z = 1.66, P = 0.11). Some Australian radiographers perceive they are not ready to practise in a frontline radiographer commenting system. Overall, radiographers indicated mixed preferences for image interpretation education delivered via intensive and non-intensive formats. Further research, preferably randomised trials, investigating the effectiveness of intensive and non-intensive education formats of image interpretation education for radiographers is warranted.

  9. A simple way to improve path consistency processing in interval algebra networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bessiere, C.

    1996-12-31

    Reasoning about qualitative temporal information is essential in many artificial intelligence problems. In particular, many tasks can be solved using the interval-based temporal algebra introduced by Allen (A1183). In this framework, one of the main tasks is to compute the transitive closure of a network of relations between intervals (also called path consistency in a CSP-like terminology). Almost all previous path consistency algorithms proposed in the temporal reasoning literature were based on the constraint reasoning algorithms PC-1 and PC-2 (Mac77). In this paper, we first show that the most efficient of these algorithms is the one which stays the closest to PC-2. Afterwards, we propose a new algorithm, using the idea {open_quotes}one support is sufficient{close_quotes} (as AC-3 (Mac77) does for arc consistency in constraint networks). Actually, to apply this idea, we simply changed the way composition-intersection of relations was achieved during the path consistency process in previous algorithms.

  10. Sequence stratigraphy and depositional facies of the Silurian-Devonian interval of the northern Permian basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canter, K.L.; Geesaman, R.C. ); Wheeler, D. )

    1992-04-01

    The Silurian and Devonian intervals of the northern Central Basin platform area of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico include the Fusselman, Wristen, and Thirtyone formations and the Woodford Shale. The carbonate-rich Fusselman, Wristen, and Thirtyone formations record a transition from ramp to platform deposition. Oolite grainstones of the lower Fusselman Formation were deposited in a ramp setting during an Upper Ordovician/Lower Silurian transgression. The overlying crinoid packstones and grainstones represent shoals that developed along a break in slope separating the evolving platform from a southward-dipping starved basin. By the close of Fusselman deposition, the platform was well developed, with shallow peridtidal mudstones and wackestones, and high-energy grainstones deposited as near-parallel facies tracts over the platform area. The platform system became fully developed during the deposition of the Wristen Formation. Porous dolomitic peridtidal and platform margin facies grade downdip into nonporous, limy and argillaceous open-shelf facies. Platform facies are typified by numerous shallowing-upward parasequences that terminated at subaerial exposure surfaces. The rocks of the Lower Devonian Thirtyone Formation were deposited as a wedge that onlaps the exposed Silurian platform margin. This formation contains a porous, chert-rich, lowstand deposit; a transgressive disconformity; and variably porous, grain-rich highstand deposits representing an overall sea level rise. A major unconformity marks the contact between the karsted upper surface of the Thirtyone Formation and the overlying organic-rich, anoxic Woodford Shale.

  11. Presentation title: This can be up to 2 lines

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Petroleum Industry Project Overview For Petroleum Marketers Association of America May 18, ... Apr Jul Oct Historical Spot Price STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price Current 95% NYMEX ...

  12. Multi-cluster processor operating only select number of clusters during each phase based on program statistic monitored at predetermined intervals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Balasubramonian, Rajeev; Dwarkadas, Sandhya; Albonesi, David

    2009-02-10

    In a processor having multiple clusters which operate in parallel, the number of clusters in use can be varied dynamically. At the start of each program phase, the configuration option for an interval is run to determine the optimal configuration, which is used until the next phase change is detected. The optimum instruction interval is determined by starting with a minimum interval and doubling it until a low stability factor is reached.

  13. The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

    2009-12-29

    Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

  14. ARM: X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    2011-09-14

    X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  15. ARM: W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Joseph Hardin; Dan Nelson; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Alyssa Matthews; Nitin Bharadwaj

    1990-01-01

    W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  16. ARM: Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joseph Hardin; Dan Nelson; Iosif Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Alyssa Matthews; Nitin Bharadwaj

    2011-05-24

    Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  17. ARM: X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  18. ARM: W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  19. ARM: Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  20. Interval Between Hysterectomy and Start of Radiation Treatment Is Predictive of Recurrence in Patients With Endometrial Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cattaneo, Richard; Hanna, Rabbie K.; Jacobsen, Gordon; Elshaikh, Mohamed A.

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to improve local control in patients with endometrial carcinoma. We analyzed the impact of the time interval between hysterectomy and RT initiation in patients with endometrial carcinoma. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board-approved study, we identified 308 patients with endometrial carcinoma who received adjuvant RT after hysterectomy. All patients had undergone hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and pelvic and para-aortic lymph node evaluation from 1988 to 2010. Patients' demographics, pathologic features, and treatments were compared. The time interval between hysterectomy and the start of RT was calculated. The effects of time interval on recurrence-free (RFS), disease-specific (DSS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated. Following univariate analysis, multivariate modeling was performed. Results: The median age and follow-up for the study cohort was 65 years and 72 months, respectively. Eighty-five percent of the patients had endometrioid carcinoma. RT was delivered with high-dose-rate brachytherapy alone (29%), pelvic RT alone (20%), or both (51%). Median time interval to start RT was 42 days (range, 21-130 days). A total of 269 patients (74%) started their RT <9 weeks after undergoing hysterectomy (group 1) and 26% started ≥9 weeks after surgery (group 2). There were a total of 43 recurrences. Tumor recurrence was significantly associated with treatment delay of ≥9 weeks, with 5-year RFS of 90% for group 1 compared to only 39% for group 2 (P<.001). On multivariate analysis, RT delay of ≥9 weeks (P<.001), presence of lymphovascular space involvement (P=.001), and higher International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics grade (P=.012) were independent predictors of recurrence. In addition, RT delay of ≥9 weeks was an independent significant predictor for worse DSS and OS (P=.001 and P=.01, respectively). Conclusions: Delay in administering adjuvant RT after hysterectomy was

  1. Regional localization of 64 cosmid contigs, including 18 genes and 14 markers, to intervals on human chromosome 9q34

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodward, K.; Nahmias, J.; Povey, S.

    1995-09-01

    A fluorescence in situ hybridization map of distal human chromosome 9q has been produced by mapping cosmid clones to metaphase chromosomes with balanced reciprocal translocations. This is a very accurate method of mapping, as clones are localized by their position with respect to the breakpoint in addition to cytogenetic banding. By using three lymphoblastoid cell lines with translocation breakpoints within 9q34, we have localized 18 genes and 14 DNA markers to one of four intervals on the chromosome. Cosmid contigs exist around 16 of these genes and 12 of these markers. A further 43 contigs have also been mapped, but they are as yet anonymous. 13 refs., 2 figs.

  2. VALIDATION OF SPRING OPERATED PRESSURE RELIEF VALVE TIME TO FAILURE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICALLY SUPPORTED MAINTENANCE INTERVALS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gross, R; Stephen Harris, S

    2009-02-18

    The Savannah River Site operates a Relief Valve Repair Shop certified by the National Board of Pressure Vessel Inspectors to NB-23, The National Board Inspection Code. Local maintenance forces perform inspection, testing, and repair of approximately 1200 spring-operated relief valves (SORV) each year as the valves are cycled in from the field. The Site now has over 7000 certified test records in the Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS); a summary of that data is presented in this paper. In previous papers, several statistical techniques were used to investigate failure on demand and failure rates including a quantal response method for predicting the failure probability as a function of time in service. The non-conservative failure mode for SORV is commonly termed 'stuck shut'; industry defined as the valve opening at greater than or equal to 1.5 times the cold set pressure. Actual time to failure is typically not known, only that failure occurred some time since the last proof test (censored data). This paper attempts to validate the assumptions underlying the statistical lifetime prediction results using Monte Carlo simulation. It employs an aging model for lift pressure as a function of set pressure, valve manufacturer, and a time-related aging effect. This paper attempts to answer two questions: (1) what is the predicted failure rate over the chosen maintenance/ inspection interval; and do we understand aging sufficient enough to estimate risk when basing proof test intervals on proof test results?

  3. Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is inputted into a flushable routing system during N time intervals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faber, Vance

    1994-01-01

    Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T.

  4. Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is input into a flushable routing system during N time intervals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faber, V.

    1994-11-29

    Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T. 4 figures.

  5. An Efficient Format for Nearly Constant-Time Access to Arbitrary Time Intervals in Large Trace Files

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chan, Anthony; Gropp, William; Lusk, Ewing

    2008-01-01

    A powerful method to aid in understanding the performance of parallel applications uses log or trace files containing time-stamped events and states (pairs of events). These trace files can be very large, often hundreds or even thousands of megabytes. Because of the cost of accessing and displaying such files, other methods are often used that reduce the size of the tracefiles at the cost of sacrificing detail or other information. This paper describes a hierarchical trace file format that provides for display of an arbitrary time window in a time independent of the total size of the file andmore » roughly proportional to the number of events within the time window. This format eliminates the need to sacrifice data to achieve a smaller trace file size (since storage is inexpensive, it is necessary only to make efficient use of bandwidth to that storage). The format can be used to organize a trace file or to create a separate file of annotations that may be used with conventional trace files. We present an analysis of the time to access all of the events relevant to an interval of time and we describe experiments demonstrating the performance of this file format.« less

  6. Location of the spinal cerebellar ataxia 2 locus to a 1 cM interval on chromsome 12q23-24.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allotey, R.; Twells, R.; Orozco, G.

    1994-09-01

    Spinocerebellar ataxia 2 (SCA2) is a dominantly inherited neurodegenerative disorder characterised by progressive ataxia, dysarthria, dysmetria and dysdiadochokinesia. We have previously assigned the disease locus to chromosome 12q23-24.1 in a population from the Holguin province, Cuba, within a 31 cM interval flanked by the anonymous marker D12S53 and the phospholipase A2 gene (PLA2). Clinical as much as genealogical and geographical evidence indicate that the Cuban pedigrees are homogeneous and descend from a common ancestor. We now report fine genetic mapping of the disease locus with fourteen microsatellite loci known to span this region, which positions SCA2 in a 1 cM interval defined by the loci D12S84-AFM291xe9. Observation of a common haplotype segregating with the disease supports the existence of a founder effect in the Holguin pedigrees.

  7. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    CMEs Globex on September 5, 2006. Prior to that, NYMEX offered the financially-settled standard-sized and NYMEX miNY energy futures contracts for trading on the Globex on June...

  8. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    CMEs Globex on September 5, 2006. Prior to that, NYMEX offered the financially-settled standard-sized and NYMEX miNY energy futures contracts for trading on the Globex on June...

  9. Standards Increase Market Confidence in SSL Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-09-30

    Fact sheet that reviews current and future SSL standards developed by DOE and other standards-setting organizations to effectively measure and characterize SSL lighting products.

  10. The CASL vision is to confidently ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... RANS models include the Spalart -Allmaras model and various flavors of turbulent-viscosity ... are being used to provide thermo- dynamic data that are input to MAMBA to broaden ...

  11. INTERVALS OF RADIAL INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS AT 1 AU, THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH RAREFACTION REGIONS, AND THEIR APPARENT MAGNETIC FOOT POINTS AT THE SUN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orlove, Steven T.; Smith, Charles W.; Vasquez, Bernard J.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Skoug, Ruth M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Zhao Liang E-mail: Charles.Smith@unh.edu E-mail: N.Schwadron@unh.edu E-mail: thomasz@umich.edu

    2013-09-01

    We have examined 226 intervals of nearly radial interplanetary magnetic field orientations at 1 AU lasting in excess of 6 hr. They are found within rarefaction regions as are the previously reported high-latitude observations. We show that these rarefactions typically do not involve high-speed wind such as that seen by Ulysses at high latitudes during solar minimum. We have examined both the wind speeds and the thermal ion composition before, during and after the rarefaction in an effort to establish the source of the flow that leads to the formation of the rarefaction. We find that the bulk of the measurements, both fast- and slow-wind intervals, possess both wind speeds and thermal ion compositions that suggest they come from typical low-latitude sources that are nominally considered slow-wind sources. In other words, we find relatively little evidence of polar coronal hole sources even when we examine the faster wind ahead of the rarefaction regions. While this is in contrast to high-latitude observations, we argue that this is to be expected of low-latitude observations where polar coronal hole sources are less prevalent. As with the previous high-latitude observations, we contend that the best explanation for these periods of radial magnetic field is interchange reconnection between two sources of different wind speed.

  12. EVALUATION OF SPRING OPERATED RELIEF VALVE MAINTENANCE INTERVALS AND EXTENSION OF MAINTENANCE TIMES USING A WEIBULL ANALYSIS WITH MODIFIED BAYESIAN UPDATING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harris, S.; Gross, R.; Mitchell, E.

    2011-01-18

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) spring operated pressure relief valve (SORV) maintenance intervals were evaluated using an approach provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API RP 581) for risk-based inspection technology (RBI). In addition, the impact of extending the inspection schedule was evaluated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The API RP 581 approach is characterized as a Weibull analysis with modified Bayesian updating provided by SRS SORV proof testing experience. Initial Weibull parameter estimates were updated as per SRS's historical proof test records contained in the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD). The API RP 581 methodology was used to estimate the SORV's probability of failing on demand (PFD), and the annual expected risk. The API RP 581 methodology indicates that the current SRS maintenance plan is conservative. Cost savings may be attained in certain mild service applications that present low PFD and overall risk. Current practices are reviewed and recommendations are made for extending inspection intervals. The paper gives an illustration of the inspection costs versus the associated risks by using API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Technology. A cost effective maintenance frequency balancing both financial risk and inspection cost is demonstrated.

  13. Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    11-161-LNG | Department of Energy Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P. and FLNG Liquefaction, LLC - FE Dkt. No. 11-161-LNG Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P. and FLNG Liquefaction, LLC - FE Dkt. No. 11-161-LNG On November 15, 2013, the Office of Fossil Energy of the Department of Energy (DOE/FE) issued Order No. 3357 (FLEX II Conditional Order) to Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P., FLNG Liquefaction, LLC, FLNG Liquefaction 2, LLC, and FLNG Liquefaction 3, LLC (collectively, FLEX) pursuant to section 3(a) of

  14. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Upward pressure on prices at the NYMEX also appears related to concerns over events in Japan that could affect energy markets. Japan, the worlds largest liquefied natural gas...

  15. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Upward pressure on prices at the NYMEX also appears related to concerns over events in Japan that could affect energy markets. Japan, the worlds largest liquefied natural gas...

  16. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    19, 2001 Last week, the NYMEX futures contract price for December delivery at the Henry Hub continued the generally downward trend that began in late October. The contract...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Market Trends). NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Near-Month Contract Settlement Price, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price, and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price Graph More...

  18. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    and subsequent increase in WTI prices reflects localized supply conditions at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for the NYMEX Light, Sweet Crude Oil Contract. Storage at Cushing is...

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices also increased this week in tandem with the crude oil prices. The natural gas futures contract for delivery in June...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices also increased this week in tandem with the crude oil prices. The natural gas futures contract for delivery in June...

  1. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    of 8 percent. The settlement price of the NYMEX futures contract for September delivery gained 37-plus cents on Wednesday in response to the AGA storage report, then...

  2. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    the country, which results in smaller differences between prices there and in the Gulf of Mexico region. Futures prices increased at the NYMEX, likely because of continued wintry...

  3. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    the country, which results in smaller differences between prices there and in the Gulf of Mexico region. Futures prices increased at the NYMEX, likely because of continued wintry...

  4. THRA1 and D17S183 flank an interval of <4 cM for the breast-ovarian cancer gene (BRCA1) on chromosome 17q21

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bowcock, A.M.; Osborne-Lawrence, S. ); Anderson, L.A.; Friedman, L.S.; Rowell, S.E.; Hall, J.M.; King, M.C. ); Black, D.M.; Solomon, E. )

    1993-04-01

    In order to pinpoint the locale of the gene for early-onset familial breast and ovarian cancer (BRCA1), polymorphisms were developed within the locus for thyroid hormone receptor alpha (THRA1) and for several anonymous sequences at chromosome 17q12-q21. The THRA1 polymorphism is a dinucleotide repeat with 10 alleles and heterozygosity .79. Gene mapping in extended families with inherited, early-onset breast and ovarian cancer indicates that BRCA1 is distal to THRA1 and proximal to D17S183 (SCG43), an interval of <4 cM. This locale excludes HER2, THRA1, WNT3, HOX2, NGFR, PHB, COLIA1, NME1, and NME2 as candidates for BRCA1 but does not exclude RARA or EDH17B. Resolving the remaining recombination events in these families by new polymorphisms in the THRA1-D17S183 interval will facilitate positional cloning of the breast-ovarian cancer gene on chromosome 17q12-q21. 16 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Code verification and confidence-building (Technical Report)...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Research Org: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Sponsoring Org: DOELANL Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: Environmental Sciences(54); ...

  6. Table B-1: Analytical Results Statistical Mean Upper Confidence

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    .1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010; Level: National and Regional Data; Row: NAICS Codes; Column: Energy Sources and Shipments; Unit: Physical Units or Btu. Coke and Shipments Net Residual Distillate Natural Gas(e) LPG and Coal Breeze of Energy Sources NAICS Total(b) Electricity(c) Fuel Oil Fuel Oil(d) (billion NGL(f) (million (million Other(g) Produced Onsite(h) Code(a) Subsector and Industry (trillion Btu) (million kWh) (million bbl) (million bbl) cu ft) (million

  7. Code verification and confidence-building (Technical Report)...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Authors: Keating, Elizabeth H. 1 ; Sun, Yunwei 2 ; Dai, Zhenxue 1 ; Zheng, Liange 3 ; Bacon, Diana 4 + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory Lawrence ...

  8. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected ...

  9. Method for Confidence Metric in Optic Disk Location in Retinal...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Images Oak Ridge National Laboratory Contact ORNL About This Technology Technology Marketing Summary To improve accuracy in diagnosis of retinal disease, ORNL researchers...

  10. Increasing Confidence In Geothermal Heat Pump Design Methods...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... rate in the ground heat exchangers, allowed us to determine the thermal properties of the soil formation being experienced by the operating GHP system. Outputs from the models ...

  11. 2007 CBECS Large Hospital Building FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs Main Report | Methodology | FAQ | List of Tables CBECS 2007 - Release date: August 17, 2012 Jump to: Figure 1 | Figure 2 | Figure 3 | Figure 4 | Figure 5 Figure 1 Number of Large Hospital Buildings and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 2 Total Floorspace and 95% Confidence Intervals in Large Hospital Buildings by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 3 Major Fuel Intensity and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007

  12. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting The focus of this study is to estimate the confidence intervals of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave...

  13. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    averaged 33%. These levels established the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in September...

  14. PowerPoint Presentation

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Extended calibration intervals and relief of even limited periodic assessment requirements Assessment of sensor measurement accuracy with high confidence Derived values for ...

  15. Slide 1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Sensor Health Greater operator confidence in validity of reading Maintenance ... of stretching sensor re-calibration intervals Decreased maintenance and capital-costs ...

  16. Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for High-Intensity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... To better represent differences in manufacturing variability between HID lamp types, DOE revises its proposed confidence intervals in this SNOPR (as discussed in section ...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    dropped 21 cents per MMBtu on the week to 6.38. At the NYMEX, the May 2005 contract lost 58 cents per MMBtu on the week, settling at 6.978 yesterday. As was the case with...

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2012 natural gas contract lost 11 cents per MMBtu to close at 3.578 per MMBtu yesterday. Working natural gas in...

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the January 2012 natural gas contract lost 31.8 cents per MMBtu overall to close at 3.382 per MMBtu yesterday. Working natural...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    dropped 21 cents per MMBtu on the week to 6.38. At the NYMEX, the May 2005 contract lost 58 cents per MMBtu on the week, settling at 6.978 yesterday. As was the case with...

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    fell as cold weather abated, the February 2014 Nymex appeared to ignore spot market fundamentals and continued to rise, expiring yesterday at 5.557MMBtu. Prices spiked in the...

  2. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    and in northern California continued to be soft as PG&E projected that linepack would stay at its present high level. On the NYMEX, the near-month contract for May delivery,...

  3. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    and in northern California continued to be soft as PG&E projected that linepack would stay at its present high level. On the NYMEX, the near-month contract for May delivery,...

  4. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map) The spot market price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana ended the week down 62 cents at 2.15 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX futures...

  5. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    between 29 and 77 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 40 cents or roughly 9 percent to 3.93 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  6. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    most production-area trading locations. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), the average Henry Hub price climbed 0.14 per MMBtu to 4.24. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for...

  7. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Lower 48 States in trading on June 4. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 70 cents or about 12 percent to 6.41 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  8. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    between 10 and 50 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 19 cents or roughly 5 percent to 4.10 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  9. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    week's gas markets. As of Friday, May 11, 2001, the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub dropped 0.24 from the previous Friday to 4.25 per MMBtu. The NYMEX price of...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub edged up 1 cent, to 7.40 per MMBtu. Yesterday (June 22), the price of the NYMEX...

  11. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    48 States in trading on June 25. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 10 cents or about 2 percent to 5.64 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  12. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    48 States in trading on July 30. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 19 cents or about 4 percent to 4.69 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  13. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    18 with sharp decreases that reversed gains from earlier in the week. Prices at the Henry Hub declined 2 cents per MMBtu compared with the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the...

  14. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wednesday, February 4. On the week (Wednesday, February 4-Wednesday, February 11), the Henry Hub spot price dropped 39 cents per MMBtu to 5.35. The NYMEX futures contract for...

  15. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    26, 2006. For the week (Wednesday, April 26 to Wednesday, May 3), the spot price at the Henry Hub decreased 62 cents, or about 9 percent, to 6.56 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  16. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    locations in the Lower 48 States, while declining at selected markets. Prices at the Henry Hub declined a penny since Wednesday, March 28, to 7.46 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the...

  17. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the light, sweet crude oil traded at the Cushing, OK delivery point for the NYMEX futures contract. Any premium on light, sweet crude oils...

  18. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    versus Brent have generally been associated with a buildup in inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of the NYMEX crude futures contract. It was thus not surprising that...

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    per MMBtu. Daily settlement prices on the NYMEX also moved up most of the week before dropping almost 0.18 per MMBtu on Friday as the near-month August contract ended the week at...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    seemed sufficient to avoid the price declines. The NYMEX futures contract for June delivery at the Henry Hub expired yesterday (May 29) at 3.42 per MMBtu. The spot price for...

  1. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    demand for gas, which spurred the price hikes. The NYMEX futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub expired yesterday (June 26) at 3.278 per MMBtu, falling over 17...

  2. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at 3.590...

  3. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at 3.590...

  4. Rick's Grph.xlsx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ENTERGY ENTERGY ENTERGY YEARLY ON PEAK SATSUN 7 NIGHTS NYMEX GASys a Year On Peak)y - ... Working Days a Year On Peak) ENTERGY SATSUN ON PEAK (Based on 115 Saturday - Sundays a ...

  5. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    market has flattened the Nymex heating oil futures curve. For 2012 and 2013, on trading days from June through August, the average spread between the first contract and the...

  6. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    as well as by outages of a number of nuclear-fired electric plants for routine maintenance. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for October delivery...

  7. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    as well as by outages of a number of nuclear-fired electric plants for routine maintenance. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for October delivery...

  8. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    trading locations traded above 2.50 per MMBtu, the vast majority of them delivering natural gas to the western markets. Spot Prices At the NYMEX, the price of the October 2009...

  9. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub were virtually unchanged, climbing 1 cent, to 7.11 per MMBtu. Yesterday (April 27), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub were virtually unchanged, climbing 1 cent, to 7.11 per MMBtu. Yesterday (April 27), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for...

  11. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.315 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  12. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.217 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  13. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.217 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  14. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.315 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  15. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Wyoming, dropped 6 cents to 1.40 per MMBtu this week. Prices at the Canadian-U.S. border at Sumas, Washington, moved up 3 cents to 1.57 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures...

  16. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    California points were around 40 cents per MMBtu, while the Southern California Border average price declined by 14 cents to 3.12 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, futures prices...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    *Avg. of NGI's reported avg. prices for: Malin, PG&E citygate, and Southern California Border Avg. Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http:intelligencepress.com). At the NYMEX,...

  18. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    California points were around 40 cents per MMBtu, while the Southern California Border average price declined by 14 cents to 3.12 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, futures prices...

  19. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application to

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Residential Electricity End-Use Modeling - Energy Information Administration - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis Sources & Uses Petroleum & Other Liquids Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas Exploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. Electricity Sales, revenue and

  20. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... In addition, a new test and certification program for Green Button was announced in June ... In June 2014 the Green Button Test and Certification program was announced through a ...

  1. Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Number: NEK0059281; AGS-1405272; SC0007037; MESO-CLIP Type: Published Article Journal Name: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Additional Journal Information: Journal...

  2. Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V. Elsevier None USDOE Netherlands 2015-11-01 English Journal Article Journal Name: Earth and Planetary Science Letters; Journal Volume: 429;...

  3. Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Framework for SCADA Security Policy (October 2005) Framework for SCADA Security Policy (October 2005) Modern automation systems used in infrastruc-ture (including Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition, or SCADA) have myriad security vulnerabilities. Many of these relate directly to inadequate security administration, which precludes truly effective and sustainable security. Adequate security management mandates a clear administrative struc-ture and enforcement hierarchy. The security policy

  4. New ITER head is confident the fusion energy project will succeed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kramer, David

    2015-05-15

    Bernard Bigot sees management of the seven-party international effort as a greater challenge than the technological demands.

  5. Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darby, John L.; Craft, Charles M.

    2014-07-01

    Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.

  6. Determining X-ray source intensity and confidence bounds in crowded fields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Primini, F. A.; Kashyap, V. L.

    2014-11-20

    We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high-energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability density function for the expected source intensity for various cases of interest, including the important cases in which both source and background apertures contain contributions from the source, and when multiple source apertures partially overlap. A Bayesian approach offers the advantages of allowing one to (1) include explicit prior information on source intensities, (2) propagate posterior distributions as priors for future observations, and (3) use Poisson likelihoods, making the treatment valid in the low-counts regime. Elements of this approach have been implemented in the Chandra Source Catalog.

  7. Defining a Technical Basis for Confidence in PV Investments - A Pathway to Service Life Prediction (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, S.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kempe, M.; Bosco, N.; Hacke, P.; Jordan, D.; Miller, D.

    2013-09-01

    Four levels of accelerated test standards for PV modules are described in the context of how the community can most quickly begin using these.

  8. New Prototype Safeguards Technology Offers Improved Confidence and Automation for Uranium Enrichment Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brim, Cornelia P.

    2013-04-01

    An important requirement for the international safeguards community is the ability to determine the enrichment level of uranium in gas centrifuge enrichment plants and nuclear fuel fabrication facilities. This is essential to ensure that countries with nuclear nonproliferation commitments, such as States Party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, are adhering to their obligations. However, current technologies to verify the uranium enrichment level in gas centrifuge enrichment plants or nuclear fuel fabrication facilities are technically challenging and resource-intensive. NNSA’s Office of Nonproliferation and International Security (NIS) supports the development, testing, and evaluation of future systems that will strengthen and sustain U.S. safeguards and security capabilities—in this case, by automating the monitoring of uranium enrichment in the entire inventory of a fuel fabrication facility. One such system is HEVA—hybrid enrichment verification array. This prototype was developed to provide an automated, nondestructive assay verification technology for uranium hexafluoride (UF6) cylinders at enrichment plants.

  9. Research Highlight

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) campaign. Error bars in AMF data represent 95 percent confidence intervals. SPOP from AMF data, compared to (b) SPOP from the VOCALS Regional...

  10. Uniform Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings and Increasing Electric Utility Confidence in Reported Savings Now Available

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published protocols for estimating energy savings for residential and commercial energy efficiency programs and measures through the recently released “The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures.”

  11. An Evaluation of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan Basins. Part 1. Evaluation of Phase 2 CO2 Injection Testing in the Deep Saline Gunter Sandstone Reservoir (Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group), Marvin Blan No. 1 Hancock County, Kentucky Part 2. Time-lapse Three-Dimensional Vertical Seismic Profile (3D-VSP) of Sequestration Target Interval with Injected Fluids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bowersox, Richard; Hickman, John; Leetaru, Hannes

    2012-12-20

    Part 1 of this report focuses on results of the western Kentucky carbon storage test, and provides a basis for evaluating injection and storage of supercritical CO2 in Cambro-Ordovician carbonate reservoirs throughout the U.S. Midcontinent. This test demonstrated that the Cambro- Ordovician Knox Group, including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite in stratigraphic succession from shallowest to deepest, had reservoir properties suitable for supercritical CO2 storage in a deep saline reservoir hosted in carbonate rocks, and that strata with properties sufficient for long-term confinement of supercritical CO2 were present in the deep subsurface. Injection testing with brine and CO2 was completed in two phases. The first phase, a joint project by the Kentucky Geological Survey and the Western Kentucky Carbon Storage Foundation, drilled the Marvin Blan No. 1 carbon storage research well and tested the entire Knox Group section in the open borehole – including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite – at 1152–2255 m, below casing cemented at 1116 m. During Phase 1 injection testing, most of the 297 tonnes of supercritical CO2 was displaced into porous and permeable sections of the lowermost Beekmantown below 1463 m and Gunter. The wellbore was then temporarily abandoned with a retrievable bridge plug in casing at 1105 m and two downhole pressure-temperature monitoring gauges below the bridge plug pending subsequent testing. Pressure and temperature data were recorded every minute for slightly more than a year, providing a unique record of subsurface reservoir conditions in the Knox. In contrast, Phase 2 testing, this study, tested a mechanically-isolated dolomitic-sandstone interval in the Gunter.

  12. Fluctuation studies in the infinite interval matrix representations of operator products and their decompositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baykara, N. A.; Guervit, Ercan; Demiralp, Metin

    2012-12-10

    In this work a study on finite dimensional matrix approximations to products of quantum mechanical operators is conducted. It is emphasized that the matrix representation of the product of two operators is equal to the product of the matrix representation of each of the operators when all the fluctuation terms are ignored. The calculation of the elements of the matrices corresponding to the matrix representation of various operators, based on three terms recursive relation is defined. Finally it is shown that the approximation quality depends on the choice of higher values of n, namely the dimension of Hilbert space.

  13. File:Table for Tip Speed Intervals of Length.pdf | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    this file. Metadata This file contains additional information, probably added from the digital camera or scanner used to create or digitize it. If the file has been modified from...

  14. Calibration Monitoring for Sensor Calibration Interval Extension: Gaps in the Current Science Base

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

    2012-10-09

    Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. International application of calibration monitoring has shown that sensors may operate for longer periods within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. Online monitoring (OLM) can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of OLM for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This paper summarizes a recent state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and OLM algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several technical needs were identified, including an understanding of the impacts of sensor degradation on measurements for both conventional and emerging sensors; the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

  15. A Review of Sensor Calibration Monitoring for Calibration Interval Extension in Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

    2012-08-31

    Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in United Kingdom, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This report presents a state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and online monitoring algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several needs are identified, including the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; accurate determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity. Understanding the degradation of sensors and the impact of this degradation on signals is key to developing technical basis to support acceptance criteria and set point decisions, particularly for advanced sensors which do not yet have a cumulative history of operating performance.

  16. A novel approach to determine post mortem interval using neutron radiography

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bilheux, Hassina Z.; Cekanova, Maria; Vass, Arpad Alexander; Nichols, Trent L.; Bilheux, Jean -Christophe; Donnell, Robert; Finocchiaro, Vincenzo

    2015-03-06

    In this study, neutron radiography (NR) is used non-destructively to measure changes in hydrogen (H) content in decaying tissues as a mean to estimate post-mortem invertal (PMI). After death, tissue undergoes sequential changes consisting of organic and inorganic phase variations, as well as a gradual reduction of tissue water content. H is the primary contributor to NR contrast in biological specimens because (1) it is the most abundant element in biological tissues and (2) its nucleus scatter thermal and cold neutrons more strongly than any other atomic nucleus. These contrast differences can be advantageous in a forensic context to determinemore » small changes in hydrogen concentrations. Dog cadavers were used as a model for human cadavers. Canine tissues and cadavers were exposed to controlled (laboratory settings) and uncontrolled (University of Tennessee Anthropology Research Facility) environmental conditions during putefraction, respectively. Neutron radiographs were supplemented with photographs and histology data to assess the decomposition stage of cadavers. Results demonstrated that the increase in neutron transmission likely corresponded to a decrease in hydrogen content in the tissue, which was correlated with the time of decay of the tissue. Tissues depleted in hydrogen are brighter in the neutron transmission radiographs of skeletal muscles, lung, and bone, under controlled conditions. Over a period of 10 days, changes in neutron transmission through lung and muscle were found to be higher than bone by 8.3%, 7.0 %, and 2.0 %, respectively. Estimation of the PMI was calculated from a natural logarithmic fitting of the NR data. Under controlled conditions, estimation of the PMI was 70% and 63.9 % accurate for bone and lung tissues, while being 1.4% accurate for muscle tissue. All results underestimated the true PMI. In conclusion, neutron radiography can be used for detection of hydrogen changes in decaying tissues to estimate PMI.« less

  17. Analysis of well test data from selected intervals in Leuggern deep borehole

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karasaki, K. )

    1990-07-01

    Applicability of the PTST technique was verified by conducting a sensitivity study to the various parameters. The study showed that for ranges of skin parameters the true formation permeability was still successfully estimated using the PTST analysis technique. The analysis technique was then applied to field data from the deep borehole in Leuggern, Northern Switzerland. The analysis indicated that the formation permeability may be as much as one order of magnitude larger than the value based on no-skin analysis. Swabbing data from the Leuggern deep borehole were also analyzed assuming that they are constant pressure tests. The analysis of the swabbing data indicates that the formation transmissivity is as much as 20 times larger than the previously obtained value. This study is part of an investigation of the feasibility of geologic isolation of nuclear wastes being carried out by the US Department of Energy and the National Cooperative for the Storage of Radioactive Waste of Switzerland.

  18. Utica play, thickness map of the combined Utica - Point Pleasant interval

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

  19. Registering coherent change detection products associated with large image sets and long capture intervals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Perkins, David Nikolaus; Gonzales, Antonio I

    2014-04-08

    A set of co-registered coherent change detection (CCD) products is produced from a set of temporally separated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of a target scene. A plurality of transformations are determined, which transformations are respectively for transforming a plurality of the SAR images to a predetermined image coordinate system. The transformations are used to create, from a set of CCD products produced from the set of SAR images, a corresponding set of co-registered CCD products.

  20. SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy Program Planning Template (165.78 KB) More Documents & Publications Commute Mode Switching Impact Tool Energy Intensity Indicators Data Refrigerator-Freezers (multiple defrost waiver)

    The Program Transition Tables provide information concerning the level of effort required to move from a traditional, industrial incentive program to Strategic Energy Management, ISO 50001, or SEP. Both the customers' and utility program administrators' perspectives are considered.

  1. A novel approach to determine post mortem interval using neutron radiography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bilheux, Hassina Z; Cekanova, Maria; Vass, Arpad Alexander; Nichols, Trent L; Bilheux, Jean-Christophe; Donnell, Robert; Finocchiaro, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this study, neutron radiography (NR) is used non-destructively to measure changes in hydrogen (H) content in decaying tissues as a mean to estimate post-mortem invertal (PMI). After death, tissue undergoes sequential changes consisting of organic and inorganic phase variations, as well as a gradual reduction of tissue water content. H is the primary contributor to NR contrast in biological specimens because (1) it is the most abundant element in biological tissues and (2) its nucleus scatter thermal and cold neutrons more strongly than any other atomic nucleus. These contrast differences can be advantageous in a forensic context to determine small changes in hydrogen concentrations. Dog cadavers were used as a model for human cadavers. Canine tissues and cadavers were exposed to controlled (laboratory settings) and uncontrolled (University of Tennessee Anthropology Research Facility) environmental conditions during putefraction, respectively. Neutron radiographs were supplemented with photographs and histology data to assess the decomposition stage of cadavers. Results demonstrated that the increase in neutron transmission likely corresponded to a decrease in hydrogen content in the tissue, which was correlated with the time of decay of the tissue. Tissues depleted in hydrogen are brighter in the neutron transmission radiographs of skeletal muscles, lung, and bone, under controlled conditions. Over a period of 10 days, changes in neutron transmission through lung and muscle were found to be higher than bone by 8.3%, 7.0 %, and 2.0 %, respectively. Estimation of the PMI was calculated from a natural logarithmic fitting of the NR data. Under controlled conditions, estimation of the PMI was 70% and 63.9 % accurate for bone and lung tissues, while being 1.4% accurate for muscle tissue. All results underestimated the true PMI. In conclusion, neutron radiography can be used for detection of hydrogen changes in decaying tissues to estimate PMI.

  2. Hits per trial: Basic analysis of binomial data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report presents simple statistical methods for analyzing binomial data, such as the number of failures in some number of demands. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the failure probability. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the failure probability varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

  3. Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1994-09-01

    The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

  4. Statement of position of the United States Department of Energy in the matter of proposed rulemaking on the storage and disposal of nuclear waste (waste confidence rulemaking)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1980-04-15

    Purpose of this proceeding is to assess generically the degree of assurance that the radioactive waste can be safely disposed of, to determine when such disposal or off-site storage will be available, and to determine whether wastes can be safely stored on-site past license expiration until off-site disposal/storage is available. (DLC)

  5. AREVA NP next generation fresh UO{sub 2} fuel assembly shipping cask: SCALE - CRISTAL comparisons lead to safety criticality confidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doucet, M.; Landrieu, M.; Montgomery, R.; O' Donnell, B.

    2007-07-01

    AREVA NP as a worldwide PWR fuel provider has to have a fleet of fresh UO{sub 2} shipping casks being agreed within a lot of countries including USA, France, Germany, Belgium, Sweden, China, and South Africa - and to accommodate foreseen EPR Nuclear Power Plants fuel buildings. To reach this target the AREVA NP Fuel Sector decided to develop an up-to-date shipping cask (so called MAP project) gathering experience feedback of the today fleet and an improved safety allowing the design to comply with international regulations (NRC and IAEA) and local Safety Authorities. Based on pre design features a safety case was set up to highlight safety margins. Criticality hypothetical accidental assumptions were defined: - Preferential flooding; - Fuel rod lattice pitch expansion for full length of fuel assemblies; - Neutron absorber penalty; -... Well known computer codes, American SCALE package and French CRISTAL package, were used to check configurations reactivity and to ensure that both codes lead to coherent results. Basic spectral calculations are based on similar algorithms with specific microscopic cross sections ENDF/BV for SCALE and JEF2.2 for CRISTAL. The main differences between the two packages is on one hand SCALE's three dimensional fuel assembly geometry is described by a pin by pin model while an homogenized fuel assembly description is used by CRISTAL and on the other hand SCALE is working with either 44 or 238 neutron energy groups while CRISTAL is with a 172 neutron energy groups. Those two computer packages rely on a wide validation process helping defining uncertainties as required by regulations in force. The shipping cask with two fuel assemblies is designed to maximize fuel isolation inside a cask and with neighboring ones even for large array configuration cases. Proven industrial products are used: - Boral{sup TM} as neutron absorber; - High density polyethylene (HDPE) or Nylon as neutron moderator; - Foam as thermal and mechanical protection. The cask is designed to handle the complete AREVA NP fuel assembly types from the 14x14 to the 18x18 design with a {sup 235}U enrichment up to 5.0% enriched natural uranium (ENU) and enriched reprocessed uranium (ERU). After a brief presentation of the computer codes and the description of the shipping cask, calculation results and comparisons between SCALE and CRISTAL will be discussed. (authors)

  6. Stress perceptions of soldiers participating in training at the Chemical Defense Training Facility: The mediating effects of motivation, experience, and confidence level. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fatkin, L.T.; Hudgens, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and funded by the Physiological and Psychological Effects of the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) Environment and Sustained Operations on Systems in Combat (P2NBC2) program to assess the psychological reactions of soldiers in mission-oriented protective posture (MOPP) IV participating in training in a simulated chemical agent environment and in a toxic agent environment. A total of 155 soldiers who participated in the basic course (junior enlisted) and the advanced courses (officer and noncommissioned officer NCO groups) as part of their military occupational specialty (MOS) training volunteered for the study. The junior enlisted group reported significant increases in anxiety during four sessions as they approached the toxic agent portion of the training. The more experienced groups showed a small, but significant increase in anxiety during sessions. Their level of hostility, a component of stress that usually relates to levels of personal frustration, decreased significantly from the time of their initial testing to just before the training began. Since the initial session occurred 1 to 2 weeks before the U.S. Army Chemical Defense Training Facility (CDTF) training, the elevated frustration level may be a reflection of their overall experiences within the intensive chemical defense training program. A significant drop in reported fatigue between the pre- and post-training sessions may indicate a certain level of vigilance gained by participating in the training.

  7. Energy & Financial Markets - Petprod - U.S. Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Administration (EIA) Financial Markets Gasoline and distillate both have futures contracts for delivery in New York Harbor on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). Since 2007, open interest (the number of contracts in a trading session that have not been settled or closed) and trading volume in these contracts increased for both products. Open interest in gasoline and distillate futures contracts increased as more participants entered the market Updated: Quarterly | Last Updated:

  8. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Futures Prices (NYMEX) Definitions Key Terms Definition Contract 1 A futures contract specifying the earliest delivery date. For gasoline, heating oil, and propane each contract expires on the last business day of the month preceding the delivery month. Thus, the delivery month for Contract 1 is the calendar month following the trade date. For crude oil, each contract expires on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar

  9. Sedimentology of the Mesaverde Formation at Rifle Gap, Colorado and implications for gas-bearing intervals in the subsurface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lorenz, J.C.

    1982-03-01

    The exposures of the Mesaverde Formation at Rifle Gap, Colorado, are of a regressive series of marine to fluvial deposits about 1650 m (5000 ft) thick. Grading up out of the marine Mancos Shale, the blanket shoreline sandstones of the Corcoran, Cozzette, and Rollins Sandstones record substages of the regression as delta lobes were activated and abandoned in northwestern Colorado during Late Cretaceous time. The overlying coals, sandstones, and carbonaceous mudstones were deposited on the paludal lower delta plain behind the shoreline. Meandering fluvial systems prograded over the paludal deposits. These systems deposited point-bar sandstones and overbank mudstones and siltstones in composite meander-belt trends, some of which are now gas-bearing, low-permeability reservoirs. Reorientation of the paleogeography during the Laramide orogeny (contemporaneous with fluvial deposition) probably changed the orientation of the meander belt trends. The uppermost sandstones at Rifle Gap, including the Ohio Creek conglomerate, are interpreted as shoreline deposits of a transgression that has been previously unrecognized in the area. Most of the record of this transgression has been destroyed by pre-Eocene erosion. The outcrops at Rifle Gap provide a basis for interpreting subsurface deposis in the Department of Energy's Western Gas Sands Project Multi-Well Experiment, 12 miles away.

  10. Solar Census - Perfecting the Art of Automated, Remote Solar Shading Assessments (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2014-04-01

    To validate the work completed by Solar Census as part of the Department of Energy SunShot Incubator 8 award, NREL validated the performanec of the Solar Census Surveyor tool against the industry standard Solmetric SunEye measurements for 4 residential sites in California who experienced light to heavy shading. Using the a two one-sided test (TOST) of statistical equivalence, NREL found that the mean differences between the Solar Census and SunEye mean solar access values for Annual, Summer, and Winter readings fall within the 95% confidence intervals and the confidence intervals themselves fall within the tolerances of +/- 5 SAVs, the Solar Census calculations are statistically equivalent to the SunEye measurements.

  11. Familial site-specific Ovarian cancer is linked to BRCA1 on 17q12-21

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steichen-Gersdorf, E.; Gallion, H.H.; Ponder, M.A.; Pye, C.; Mazoyer, S.; Smith, S.A.; Ponder, B.A.J.; Ford, D.; Easton, D.F.; Girodet, C.

    1994-11-01

    In a study of nine families with {open_quotes}site-specific{close_quotes} ovarian cancer (criterion: three or more cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and no cases of breast cancer diagnosed at age <50 years) we have obtained evidence of linkage to the breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility gene, BRCA1 on 17q12-21. If the risk of cancer in these families is assumed to be restricted to the ovary, the best estimate of the proportion of families linked to BRCA1 is .78 (95% confidence interval .32-1.0). If predisposition to both breast and ovarian cancer is assumed, the proportion linked is 1.0 (95% confidence interval .46-1.0). The linkage of familial site-specific ovarian cancer to BRCA1 indicates the possibility of predictive testing in such families; however, this is only appropriate in families where the evidence for linkage to BRCA1 is conclusive. 17 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Outcomes of Node-Negative Breast Cancer 5 Centimeters and Larger Treated With and Without Postmastectomy Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goulart, Jennifer; Truong, Pauline; Woods, Ryan; Speers, Caroline H.; Kennecke, Hagen; Nichol, Alan

    2011-07-01

    Purpose: The role of adjuvant postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) remains controversial for the rare presentation of pT3pN0cM0 breast cancer. The present analysis examined locoregional recurrence (LRR) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in pT2 = 5.0-cm and pT3 >5.0-cm tumors treated with mastectomy, stratified by PMRT use. Materials and Methods: Between January 1, 1989 and December 31, 2000, the British Columbia provincial database yielded 100 node-negative patients with tumors {>=}5 cm of 19,846 nonmetastatic breast cancer patients (0.5%). Of these 100 patients, 44 (44%) had received adjuvant PMRT. Results: The PMRT group contained significantly more pT3 >5-cm cases (p = 0.001) and margin-positive cases (p = .03). With a median follow-up of 10 years, the cumulative 10-year LRR rate was 2.3% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-10.5) in the PMRT group vs. 8.9% (95% confidence interval, 3.2-18.2) in the no-PMRT group (p = .2). Regarding LRR in the no-PMRT group, all patients had Grade 3 histologic features (LRR 17%, 5 of 29) and had not received hormonal therapy (LRR 15%, 5 of 34). The 10-year breast cancer-specific survival rate was 85.8% (95% confidence interval 71.0-93.4) in the PMRT group vs. 74.6% (95% confidence interval 59.9-84.5) in the no-PMRT group (p = .2). On multivariate analysis, adjusted for the prognostic and predictive variables, PMRT did not significantly improve the LRR or breast cancer-specific survival rates. Conclusion: The present study demonstrated a low LRR rate for node-negative breast cancer {>=}5 cm. Our results indicate that PMRT should be considered for Grade 3 histologic features and patients not undergoing hormonal therapy.

  13. Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akrami, Yashar; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Conrad, Jan; Edsj, Joakim E-mail: savage@fysik.su.se E-mail: conrad@fysik.su.se

    2011-07-01

    Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.

  14. MM-Estimator and Adjusted Super Smoother based Simultaneous Prediction Confedenc

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-07-19

    A Novel Application of Regression Analysis (MM-Estimator) with Simultaneous Prediction Confidence Intervals are proposed to detect up- or down-regulated genes, which are outliers in scatter plots based on log-transformed red (Cy5 fluorescent dye) versus green (Cy3 fluorescent Dye) intensities. Advantages of the application: 1) Robust and Resistant MM-Estimator is a Reliable Method to Build Linear Regression In the presence of Outliers, 2) Exploratory Data Analysis Tools (Boxplots, Averaged Shifted Histograms, Quantile-Quantile Normal Plots and Scattermore » Plots) are Unsed to Test Visually underlying assumptions of linearity and Contaminated Normality in Microarray data), 3) Simultaneous prediction confidence intervals (SPCIs) Guarantee a desired confidence level across the whole range of the data points used for the scatter plots. Results of the outlier detection procedure is a set of significantly differentially expressed genes extracted from the employed microarray data set. A scatter plot smoother (super smoother or locally weighted regression) is used to quantify heteroscendasticity is residual variance (Commonly takes place in lower and higher intensity areas). The set of differentially expressed genes is quantified using interval estimates for P-values as a probabilistic measure of being outlier by chance. Monte Carlo simultations are used to adjust super smoother-based SPCIs.her.« less

  15. Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    markets archive Dollars per short ton Dollars per mmbtu NYMEX coal futures Data for: 2004- Historical data . Note: No data available for Western PRB and Eastern CSX prior to 6/30/09.

    Effects of the Clean Power Plan Laura Martin and Jeffrey Jones Release Date: 6/20/16 The Clean Power Plan (CPP) [1] rule, issued under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) program to regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at existing fossil-fired electric power

  16. Changing Trends in the Refining Industry (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Basket price.

  17. Complex facies relationships and regional stratigraphy of the Mississippian Ste. Genevieve, Paoli, and Aux Vases Formations, Illinois basin: A major hydrocarbon-producing interval

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, R.D.; Nelson, W.J. )

    1993-03-01

    The Mississippian Ste. Genevieve and Paoli Limestones and sandstones of the Aux Vases Formation are lateral facies of one another. This interpretation is based on comprehensive investigations of outcrops, and selected cores, samples of well cuttings, and geophysical logs conducted over a period of four years. Both units exhibit similar sedimentological characteristics and represent open marine, shallow subtidal, and intertidal environments. The presence of low-angle cross-laminae, ripple- and plane-laminae, climbing ripples, and ooid shoals suggest most deposition occurred under low energy conditions. Lenticular, channel-like scour and fill structures that contain both fine-grained quartz sand and abraded, disarticulated fossil fragments indicate localized higher energy deposition. The authors studies indicate that siliciclastic vs. carbonate deposition was controlled strictly by available sediment, and not by regressive (siliciclastic) and transgressive (carbonate) events, as inferred by previous workers. This conclusion is based on lateral facies relationships, and the supplanting of carbonates by clastics occurring in the upper part of the Ste. Genevieve through the middle part of the Paoli. The Aux Vases is thickest, coarsest, and least mature in the northwestern part of the Illinois Basin, and pinches out to the southeast. This implies a northwesterly source for clastics, perhaps the Transcontinental Arch. After early Chesterian time, the Transcontinental Arch apparently supplied little or no sediment to any flanking basin. The Ste. Genevieve, Paoli, and Aux Vases are major oil-producing units in the Illinois Basin. New understanding of regional relationships should enhance exploratory success and improve recovery from established fields.

  18. Digitally Available Interval-Specific Rock-Sample Data Compiled from Historical Records, Nevada Test Site and Vicinity, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David B. Wood

    2009-10-08

    Between 1951 and 1992, underground nuclear weapons testing was conducted at 828 sites on the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. Prior to and following these nuclear tests, holes were drilled and mined to collect rock samples. These samples are organized and stored by depth of borehole or drift at the U.S. Geological Survey Core Library and Data Center at Mercury, Nevada, on the Nevada Test Site. From these rock samples, rock properties were analyzed and interpreted and compiled into project files and in published reports that are maintained at the Core Library and at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Henderson, Nevada. These rock-sample data include lithologic descriptions, physical and mechanical properties, and fracture characteristics. Hydraulic properties also were compiled from holes completed in the water table. Rock samples are irreplaceable because pre-test, in-place conditions cannot be recreated and samples cannot be recollected from the many holes destroyed by testing. Documenting these data in a published report will ensure availability for future investigators.

  19. The DAFT/FADA survey. I.Photometric redshifts along lines of sight to clusters in the z=[0.4,0.9] interval

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guennou, L.; Adami, C.; Ulmer, M.P.; LeBrun, V.; Durret, F.; Johnston, D.; Ilbert, O.; Clowe, D.; Gavazzi, R.; Murphy, K.; Schrabback, T.; /Leiden Observ. /Fermilab

    2010-08-01

    As a contribution to the understanding of the dark energy concept, the Dark energy American French Team (DAFT, in French FADA) has started a large project to characterize statistically high redshift galaxy clusters, infer cosmological constraints from Weak Lensing Tomography, and understand biases relevant for constraining dark energy and cluster physics in future cluster and cosmological experiments. Aims. The purpose of this paper is to establish the basis of reference for the photo-z determination used in all our subsequent papers, including weak lensing tomography studies. This project is based on a sample of 91 high redshift (z {ge} 0.4), massive ({approx}> 3 x 10{sup 14} M{sub {circle_dot}}) clusters with existing HST imaging, for which we are presently performing complementary multi-wavelength imaging. This allows us in particular to estimate spectral types and determine accurate photometric redshifts for galaxies along the lines of sight to the first ten clusters for which all the required data are available down to a limit of I{sub AB} = 24./24.5 with the LePhare software. The accuracy in redshift is of the order of 0.05 for the range 0.2 {le} z {le} 1.5. We verified that the technique applied to obtain photometric redshifts works well by comparing our results to with previous works. In clusters, photo-z accuracy is degraded for bright absolute magnitudes and for the latest and earliest type galaxies. The photo-z accuracy also only slightly varies as a function of the spectral type for field galaxies. As a consequence, we find evidence for an environmental dependence of the photo-z accuracy, interpreted as the standard used Spectral Energy Distributions being not very well suited to cluster galaxies. Finally, we modeled the LCDCS 0504 mass with the strong arcs detected along this line of sight.

  20. Microseismic and deformation imaging of hydraulic fracture growth and geometry in the C sand interval, GRI/DOE M-Site project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warpinski, N.R.; Uhl, J.E.; Engler, B.P.

    1997-08-01

    Six hydraulic-fracture injections into a fluvial sandstone at a depth of 4300 ft were monitored with multi-level tri-axial seismic receivers in two wells and an inclinometer array in one well, resulting in maps of the growth and final geometry of each fracture injection. These diagnostic images show the progression of height and length growth with fluid volume, rate and viscosity. Complexities associated with shut downs and high treatment pressures can be observed. Validation of the seismic geometry was made with the inclinometers and diagnostic procedures in an intersecting well. Fracture information related to deformation, such as fracture closure pressure, residual widths, and final prop distribution, were obtained from the inclinometer data.

  1. Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

    2016-03-24

    Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension Nb with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the Nb × Nb feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of Nr realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number Ns ≤ Nr of independent ray-tracing N-body simulations. We study parameter confidence intervalsmore » as a function of (Ns, Nr) in the range 1 ≤ Ns ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ Nr ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/Nr) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N2r) error degradation that is not negligible when Nr is only a factor of few larger than Nb. We study the large Nr limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 5123-particle N-body simulation (Ns = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as Nr = few × 104 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (Ns = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

  2. CBECS 1992 - Detailed Tables Word Definitions

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Confidence Levels Confidence Levels The 95-percent confidence range can be determined using the approximate standard error of the estimate. To calculate the 95-percent confidence...

  3. Sensitivity Test Analysis

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1992-02-20

    SENSIT,MUSIG,COMSEN is a set of three related programs for sensitivity test analysis. SENSIT conducts sensitivity tests. These tests are also known as threshold tests, LD50 tests, gap tests, drop weight tests, etc. SENSIT interactively instructs the experimenter on the proper level at which to stress the next specimen, based on the results of previous responses. MUSIG analyzes the results of a sensitivity test to determine the mean and standard deviation of the underlying population bymore » computing maximum likelihood estimates of these parameters. MUSIG also computes likelihood ratio joint confidence regions and individual confidence intervals. COMSEN compares the results of two sensitivity tests to see if the underlying populations are significantly different. COMSEN provides an unbiased method of distinguishing between statistical variation of the estimates of the parameters of the population and true population difference.« less

  4. RADIATION PRESSURE DETECTION AND DENSITY ESTIMATE FOR 2011 MD

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Micheli, Marco; Tholen, David J.; Elliott, Garrett T. E-mail: tholen@ifa.hawaii.edu

    2014-06-10

    We present our astrometric observations of the small near-Earth object 2011 MD (H ? 28.0), obtained after its very close fly-by to Earth in 2011 June. Our set of observations extends the observational arc to 73days, and, together with the published astrometry obtained around the Earth fly-by, allows a direct detection of the effect of radiation pressure on the object, with a confidence of 5?. The detection can be used to put constraints on the density of the object, pointing to either an unexpectedly low value of ?=(640330)kg m{sup ?3} (68% confidence interval) if we assume a typical probability distribution for the unknown albedo, or to an unusually high reflectivity of its surface. This result may have important implications both in terms of impact hazard from small objects and in light of a possible retrieval of this target.

  5. Meta-Analyses of the Associations of Respiratory Health Effectswith Dampness and Mold in Homes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisk, William J.; Lei-Gomez, Quanhong; Mendell, Mark J.

    2006-01-01

    The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences recently completed a critical review of the scientific literature pertaining to the association of indoor dampness and mold contamination with adverse health effects. In this paper, we report the results of quantitative meta-analysis of the studies reviewed in the IOM report. We developed point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the association of several respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes with the presence of dampness and mold in homes. The odds ratios and confidence intervals from the original studies were transformed to the log scale and random effect models were applied to the log odds ratios and their variance. Models were constructed both accounting for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed and ignoring such potential correlation. Central estimates of ORs for the health outcomes ranged from 1.32 to 2.10, with most central estimates between 1.3 and 1.8. Confidence intervals (95%) excluded unity except in two of 28 instances, and in most cases the lower bound of the CI exceeded 1.2. In general, the two meta-analysis methods produced similar estimates for ORs and CIs. Based on the results of the meta-analyses, building dampness and mold are associated with approximately 30% to 80% increases in a variety of respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes. The results of these meta-analyses reinforce the IOM's recommendation that actions be taken to prevent and reduce building dampness problems.

  6. Comment on the Word 'Cooling' as it is Used in Beam Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sessler, Andrew M.

    2005-09-10

    The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences recently completed a critical review of the scientific literature pertaining to the association of indoor dampness and mold contamination with adverse health effects. In this paper, we report the results of quantitative meta-analysis of the studies reviewed in the IOM report. We developed point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the association of several respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes with the presence of dampness and mold in homes. The odds ratios and confidence intervals from the original studies were transformed to the log scale and random effect models were applied to the log odds ratios and their variance. Models were constructed both accounting for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed and ignoring such potential correlation. Central estimates of ORs for the health outcomes ranged from 1.32 to 2.10, with most central estimates between 1.3 and 1.8. Confidence intervals (95%) excluded unity except in two of 28 instances, and in most cases the lower bound of the CI exceeded 1.2. In general, the two meta-analysis methods produced similar estimates for ORs and CIs. Based on the results of the meta-analyses, building dampness and mold are associated with approximately 30% to 80% increases in a variety of respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes. The results of these meta-analyses reinforce the IOM's recommendation that actions be taken to prevent and reduce building dampness problems.

  7. A new method for measurement of safety rod drop times

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pesic, M.; Stefanovic, D. ); Marinkovic, P. )

    1992-10-01

    In this paper, a new method for the accurate measurement of safety rod drop times is proposed. It is based on a fast electromagnetic transducer and an analog-to-digital converter (ADC) conected to a computer system. Evaluation of recorded data is conducted by a developed computer code. The first measurements performed at the HERBE fast-thermal RB reactor show that a relative uncertainty (confidence level 95%) of less than 6% can be achieved in determination of rod drop time (with time intervals ranging from 0.4-10.0 s). Further improvements in accuracy are possible.

  8. Racetrack resonator as a loss measurement platform for photonic components

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Jones, Adam M.; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; DeRose, Christopher T.; Lentine, Anthony L.; Starbuck, Andrew; Pomerene, Andrew T. S.; Norwood, Robert A.

    2015-10-27

    This work represents the first complete analysis of the use of a racetrack resonator to measure the insertion loss of efficient, compact photonic components. Beginning with an in-depth analysis of potential error sources and a discussion of the calibration procedure, the technique is used to estimate the insertion loss of waveguide width tapers of varying geometry with a resulting 95% confidence interval of 0.007 dB. Furthermore, the work concludes with a performance comparison of the analyzed tapers with results presented for four taper profiles and three taper lengths.

  9. Data free inference with processed data products

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

    2014-07-12

    Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

  10. Betting on the Future: The authors compare natural gas forecaststo futures buys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-20

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market. The goal is better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. Below is a discussion of our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this article we update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words

  11. NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress announces partnerships with

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NYMEX Futures Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, All Others in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product/ Contract 08/23/16 08/24/16 08/25/16 08/26/16 08/29/16 08/30/16 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 48.10 46.77 47.33 47.64 46.98 46.35 1983-2016 Contract 2 48.75 47.48 48.03 48.33 47.65 46.99 1985-2016 Contract 3 49.39

  12. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude assayed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rhodes, A.K.

    1994-08-15

    The paper gives an assay of West Texas Intermediate, one of the world's market crudes. The price of this crude, known as WTI, is followed by market analysts, investors, traders, and industry managers around the world. WTI price is used as a benchmark for pricing all other US crude oils. The 41[degree] API < 0.34 wt % sulfur crude is gathered in West Texas and moved to Cushing, Okla., for distribution. The WTI posted prices is the price paid for the crude at the wellhead in West Texas and is the true benchmark on which other US crudes are priced. The spot price is the negotiated price for short-term trades of the crude. And the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, price is a futures price for barrels delivered at Cushing.

  13. EIA Report 9/1/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets , 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) (2pm) 9/1/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/25/2008 Year Ago 8/31/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 111.16 115.46 -4.30 115.11 73.98 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 275.10 285.42 -10.32 280.69 196.45 Heating Oil (c/gal) 309.24 319.19 -9.95 317.90 205.74 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.98 8.36 -0.38 7.94 6.46 OPEC Basket ($Bbl) NA 111.23 NA 110.61 69.60 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate

  14. EIA Report 9/10/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 0, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/10/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/3/2008 Year Ago 9/10/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 102.58 115.46 -12.88 109.35 77.49 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 266.16 285.42 -19.26 276.68 197.86 Heating Oil (c/gal) 290.24 319.19 -28.95 307.88 217.16 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.39 7.94 -0.55 7.26 5.89 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  15. EIA Report 9/11/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 1, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/11/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/4/2008 Year Ago 9/11/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 100.87 115.46 -14.59 107.89 78.23 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 274.88 285.42 -10.54 274.04 198.11 Heating Oil (c/gal) 291.55 319.19 -27.64 302.37 218.27 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.25 7.94 -0.69 7.32 5.93 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  16. EIA Report 9/12/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 2, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/12/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 101.18 115.46 -14.28 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.96 285.42 -8.46 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 293.91 319.19 -25.28 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  17. EIA Report 9/13/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets Saturday, September 13, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/12/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 101.18 115.46 -14.28 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.96 285.42 -8.46 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 293.91 319.19 -25.28 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB),

  18. EIA Report 9/14/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets Sunday, September 14, 3:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 2:30pm 9/14/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 99.17 115.46 -16.29 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 264.65 285.42 -20.77 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 284.80 319.19 -34.39 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.43 7.94 -0.51 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending

  19. EIA Report 9/15/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 15, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/15/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/8/2008 Year Ago 9/14/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 95.71 115.46 -19.75 106.34 79.10 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 256.14 285.42 -29.28 275.03 203.64 Heating Oil (c/gal) 279.12 319.19 -40.07 301.31 220.78 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.53 6.28 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  20. EIA Report 9/16/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets Tuesday, September 16, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/16/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/9/2008 Year Ago 9/17/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 91.15 115.46 -24.31 103.26 80.57 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 240.08 285.42 -45.34 265.26 204.42 Heating Oil (c/gal) 271.97 319.19 -47.22 292.47 222.87 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.28 7.94 -0.66 7.54 6.65 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB),

  1. EIA Report 9/17/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 7, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/17/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/10/2008 Year Ago 9/17/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 97.16 115.46 -18.30 102.58 80.57 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 246.30 285.42 -39.12 266.16 204.42 Heating Oil (c/gal) 282.47 319.19 -36.72 290.24 222.87 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.91 7.94 -0.03 7.39 6.65 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  2. EIA Report 9/18/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 18, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/18/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/11/2008 Year Ago 9/18/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 97.88 115.46 -17.58 100.87 81.51 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 248.24 285.42 -37.18 274.88 206.03 Heating Oil (c/gal) 278.24 319.19 -40.95 291.55 224.23 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.62 7.94 -0.32 7.25 6.57 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  3. EIA Report 9/19/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 19, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/19/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/12/2008 Year Ago 9/18/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 104.55 115.46 -10.91 101.18 81.93 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 259.97 285.42 -25.45 276.96 209.34 Heating Oil (c/gal) 289.78 319.19 -29.41 293.91 224.53 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.53 7.94 -0.41 7.37 6.18 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  4. EIA Report 9/2/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets , 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/2/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/26/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 109.71 115.46 -5.75 116.27 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 273.37 285.42 -12.05 285.97 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 307.36 319.19 -11.83 323.44 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.26 7.94 -0.68 8.39 5.63 OPEC Basket ($Bbl) NA 111.23 NA 110.51 70.88 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate

  5. EIA Report 9/22/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 22, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/22/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/15/2008 Year Ago 9/21/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 120.92 115.46 5.46 95.71 81.62 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 270.38 285.42 -15.04 256.14 211.45 Heating Oil (c/gal) 304.30 319.19 -14.89 279.12 225.62 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.66 7.94 -0.28 7.37 6.08 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  6. EIA Report 9/23/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 3, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/23/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/16/2008 Year Ago 9/21/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 106.61 115.46 -8.85 91.15 81.62 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 259.50 285.42 -25.92 240.08 211.45 Heating Oil (c/gal) 299.63 319.19 -19.56 271.97 225.62 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.93 7.94 -0.01 7.28 6.08 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  7. EIA Report 9/24/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 4, 4:00 pm U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/24/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/17/2008 Year Ago 9/24/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 105.73 115.46 -9.73 91.16 80.95 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 259.47 285.42 -25.95 246.30 208.34 Heating Oil (c/gal) 301.33 319.19 -17.86 282.47 223.06 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.68 7.94 -0.26 7.91 6.37 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to

  8. EIA Report 9/25/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 25, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/25/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/18/2008 Year Ago 9/25/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 108.02 115.46 -7.44 97.88 79.53 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 269.73 285.42 -15.69 248.24 203.79 Heating Oil (c/gal) 302.58 319.19 -16.61 278.24 218.13 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.64 7.94 -0.30 7.62 6.36 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  9. EIA Report 9/26/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 26, 4:00 pm U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/26/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/19/2008 Year Ago 9/26/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 108.89 115.46 -8.57 104.55 80.30 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 266.51 285.42 -18.91 259.97 202.74 Heating Oil (c/gal) 299.49 319.19 -19.70 289.78 218.26 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.47 7.94 -0.47 7.53 6.40 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs

  10. EIA Report 9/3/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 3, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/3/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/27/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 109.35 115.46 -6.11 118.15 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.68 285.42 -8.74 291.72 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 307.88 319.19 -11.31 328.15 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.26 7.94 -0.68 8.61 5.63 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to

  11. EIA Report 9/4/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 4, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/4/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/28/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 107.89 115.46 -7.57 115.59 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 274.04 285.42 -11.38 286.44 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 302.37 319.19 -16.82 320.21 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.32 7.94 -0.62 8.05 5.63 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to

  12. EIA Report 9/5/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 5, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/5/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/29/2008 Year Ago 9/5/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 106.23 115.46 -9.23 115.46 75.73 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 268.61 285.42 -16.81 285.42 199.65 Heating Oil (c/gal) 298.28 319.19 -20.91 319.19 209.99 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.45 7.94 -0.49 7.94 5.81 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  13. EIA Report 9/8/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 8, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/8/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/2/2008 Year Ago 9/7/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 106.34 115.46 -9.12 109.71 76.70 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 275.03 285.42 -10.39 273.37 198.64 Heating Oil (c/gal) 301.31 319.19 -17.88 307.36 214.32 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.53 7.94 -0.41 7.26 5.50 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that

  14. EIA Report 9/9/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Markets 9, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/9/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/2/2008 Year Ago 9/10/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 103.26 115.46 -12.20 109.71 77.49 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 265.26 285.42 -20.16 273.37 197.86 Heating Oil (c/gal) 292.47 319.19 -26.72 307.36 217.16 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.54 7.94 -0.40 7.26 5.89 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  15. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  16. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  17. Comments on ''The optimization of electronic precision in ultrasonic velocity measurements: A comparison of the time interval averaging and sing around methods'' (J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 73, 1833--1837 (1983))

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karplus, H.B.

    1984-06-01

    J. D. Aindow and R. C. Chivers (J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 73, 1833 (1983)) compared the precision of the direct ''time-of-flight'' technique with the ''sing-around'' method for sound velocity measurement. Their conclusion is changed by the newer, faster, commercial clocks (2 ns HP5345<0.1 ns HP5370), giving the advantage to the time of flight method. The analysis is herewith augmented by calculating the time jitter in terms of signal to noise ratio, which was correctly shown to be negligible with 100-ns clocks, but becomes increasingly more significant with faster clocks.

  18. Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaorsky, Nicholas G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Li, Tianyu; Horwitz, Eric M.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the {chi}{sup 2} test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

  19. Salvage/Adjuvant Brachytherapy After Ophthalmic Artery Chemosurgery for Intraocular Retinoblastoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Francis, Jasmine H.; Barker, Christopher A.; Wolden, Suzanne L.; McCormick, Beryl; Segal, Kira; Cohen, Gil; Gobin, Y. Pierre; Marr, Brian P.; Brodie, Scott E.; Dunkel, Ira J.; Abramson, David H.

    2013-11-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of brachytherapy after ophthalmic artery chemosurgery (OAC) for retinoblastoma. Methods and Materials: This was a single-arm, retrospective study of 15 eyes in 15 patients treated with OAC followed by brachytherapy at (blinded institution) between May 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012, with a median 19 months' follow-up from plaque insertion. Outcome measurements included patient and ocular survival, visual function, and retinal toxicity measured by electroretinogram (ERG). Results: Brachytherapy was used as adjuvant treatment in 2 eyes and as salvage therapy in 13 eyes of which 12 had localized vitreous seeding. No patients developed metastasis or died of retinoblastoma. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ocular survival was 79.4% (95% confidence interval 48.7%-92.8%) at 18 months. Three eyes were enucleated, and an additional 6 eyes developed out-of-target volume recurrences, which were controlled with additional treatments. Patients with an ocular complication had a mean interval between last OAC and plaque of 2.5 months (SD 2.3 months), which was statistically less (P=.045) than patients without ocular complication who had a mean interval between last OAC and plaque of 6.5 months (SD 4.4 months). ERG responses from pre- versus postplaque were unchanged or improved in more than half the eyes. Conclusions: Brachytherapy following OAC is effective, even in the presence of vitreous seeding; the majority of eyes maintained stable or improved retinal function following treatment, as assessed by ERG.

  20. A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Xiaofeng; Thornton, Peter E; Post, Wilfred M

    2013-01-01

    Soil microbes play a pivotal role in regulating land-atmosphere interactions; the soil microbial biomass carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and C:N:P stoichiometry are important regulators for soil biogeochemical processes; however, the current knowledge on magnitude, stoichiometry, storage, and spatial distribution of global soil microbial biomass C, N, and P is limited. In this study, 3087 pairs of data points were retrieved from 281 published papers and further used to summarize the magnitudes and stoichiometries of C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass at global- and biome-levels. Finally, global stock and spatial distribution of microbial biomass C and N in 0-30 cm and 0-100 cm soil profiles were estimated. The results show that C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass vary substantially across biomes; the fractions of soil nutrient C, N, and P in soil microbial biomass are 1.6% in a 95% confidence interval of (1.5%-1.6%), 2.9% in a 95% confidence interval of (2.8%-3.0%), and 4.4% in a 95% confidence interval of (3.9%-5.0%), respectively. The best estimates of C:N:P stoichiometries for soil nutrients and soil microbial biomass are 153:11:1, and 47:6:1, respectively, at global scale, and they vary in a wide range among biomes. Vertical distribution of soil microbial biomass follows the distribution of roots up to 1 m depth. The global stock of soil microbial biomass C and N were estimated to be 15.2 Pg C and 2.3 Pg N in the 0-30 cm soil profiles, and 21.2 Pg C and 3.2 Pg N in the 0-100 cm soil profiles. We did not estimate P in soil microbial biomass due to data shortage and insignificant correlation with soil total P and climate variables. The spatial patterns of soil microbial biomass C and N were consistent with those of soil organic C and total N, i.e. high density in northern high latitude, and low density in low latitudes and southern hemisphere.

  1. Improved precision and accuracy in quantifying plutonium isotope ratios by RIMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Isselhardt, B. H.; Savina, M. R.; Kucher, A.; Gates, S. D.; Knight, K. B.; Hutcheon, I. D.

    2015-09-01

    Resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) holds the promise of rapid, isobar-free quantification of actinide isotope ratios in as-received materials (i.e. not chemically purified). Recent progress in achieving this potential using two Pu test materials is presented. RIMS measurements were conducted multiple times over a period of two months on two different Pu solutions deposited on metal surfaces. Measurements were bracketed with a Pu isotopic standard, and yielded absolute accuracies of the measured 240Pu/239Pu ratios of 0.7% and 0.58%, with precisions (95% confidence intervals) of 1.49% and 0.91%. In conclusion, the minor isotope 238Pu was also quantified despite the presence of a significant quantity of 238U in the samples.

  2. Improved precision and accuracy in quantifying plutonium isotope ratios by RIMS

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Isselhardt, B. H.; Savina, M. R.; Kucher, A.; Gates, S. D.; Knight, K. B.; Hutcheon, I. D.

    2015-09-01

    Resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) holds the promise of rapid, isobar-free quantification of actinide isotope ratios in as-received materials (i.e. not chemically purified). Recent progress in achieving this potential using two Pu test materials is presented. RIMS measurements were conducted multiple times over a period of two months on two different Pu solutions deposited on metal surfaces. Measurements were bracketed with a Pu isotopic standard, and yielded absolute accuracies of the measured 240Pu/239Pu ratios of 0.7% and 0.58%, with precisions (95% confidence intervals) of 1.49% and 0.91%. In conclusion, the minor isotope 238Pu was also quantified despite the presence ofmore » a significant quantity of 238U in the samples.« less

  3. The production and certification of a plutonium equal-atom reference material: NBL CRM 128

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crawford, D.W. . Office of Safeguards and Security); Gradle, C.G.; Soriano, M.D. )

    1990-07-01

    This report describes the design, production, and certification of the New Brunswick Laboratory plutonium equal-atom certified reference material (CRM), NBL CRM 128. The primary use of this CRM is for the determination of bias corrections encountered in the operation of a mass spectrometer. This reference material is available to the US Department of Energy contractor-operated and government-operated laboratories, as well as to the international nuclear safeguards community. The absolute, or unbiased, certified value for the CRM's Pu-242/Pu-239 ratio is 1.00063 {plus minus} 0.00026 (95% confidence interval) as of October 1, 1984. This value was obtained through the quantitative blending of high-purity, chemically and isotopically characterized separated isotopes, as well as through intercomparisons of CRM samples with calibration mixtures using thermal ionization mass spectrometry. 32 tabs.

  4. Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

    2014-03-18

    A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

  5. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  6. Classification of heart valve single leg separations from acoustic clinical measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, G.A.; Bowman, B.C.; Boruta, N.; Thomas, G.H.; Jones, H.E.; Buhl, M.R.

    1994-05-01

    Our system classifies the condition (intact or single leg separated) of in vivo Bjork-Shiley Convexo-Concave (BSCC) heart valves by processing acoustic measurements of clinical heart valve opening sounds. We use spectral features as inputs to a two-stage classifier, which first classifies individual heart beats, then classifies valves. Performance is measured by probability of detection and probability of false alarm, and by confidence intervals on the probability of correct classification. The novelty of the work lies in the application of advanced techniques to real heart valve data, and extensions of published algorithms that enhance their applicability. We show that even when given a very small number of training samples, the classifier can achieve a probability of correct classification of 100%.

  7. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  8. Search for Violation of $CPT$ and Lorentz Invariance in $${B_s^0}$$ Meson Oscillations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich

    2015-06-12

    We present the first search for CPT-violating effects in the mixing of B0s mesons using the full Run II data set with an integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb-1 of proton-antiproton collisions collected using the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We measure the CPT-violating asymmetry in the decay B0s → µ±D±s as a function of celestial direction and sidereal phase. We find no evidence for CPT-violating effects and place limits on the direction and magnitude of flavor-dependent CPTand Lorentz-invariance violating coupling coefficients. We find 95% confidence intervals of Δa⊥ < 1.2 × 10-12 GeV and (-0.8 < ΔaT -more » 0.396ΔaZ < 3.9) × 10-13 GeV.« less

  9. Tank 241-AX-103, cores 212 and 214 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steen, F.H.

    1998-02-05

    This document is the analytical laboratory report for tank 241-AX-103 push mode core segments collected between July 30, 1997 and August 11, 1997. The segments were subsampled and analyzed in accordance with the Tank 241-AX-103 Push Mode Core Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP) (Comer, 1997), the Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO) (Dukelow, et al., 1995) and the Data Quality Objective to Support Resolution of the Organic Complexant Safety Issue (Organic DQO) (Turner, et al., 1995). The analytical results are included in the data summary table (Table 1). None of the samples submitted for Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Total Alpha Activity (AT), plutonium 239 (Pu239), and Total Organic Carbon (TOC) exceeded notification limits as stated in the TSAP (Conner, 1997). The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems Technical Basis Group in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding (Schreiber, 1997) and not considered in this report.

  10. Search for Dijet Resonances in 7 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khachatryan, V.; et al.

    2010-11-01

    A search for narrow resonances in the dijet mass spectrum is performed using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 inverse pb collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level (CL) are presented on the product of the resonance cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance, separately for decays into quark-quark, quark-gluon, or gluon-gluon pairs. The data exclude new particles predicted in the following models at the 95% CL: string resonances, with mass less than 2.50 TeV, excited quarks, with mass less than 1.58 TeV, and axigluons, colorons, and E_6 diquarks, in specific mass intervals. This extends previously published limits on these models.

  11. Digital Elevation Model, 0.25 m, Barrow Environmental Observatory, Alaska, 2013

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Cathy Wilson; Garrett Altmann

    2015-11-20

    This 0.25m horizontal resolution digital elevation model, DEM, was developed from Airborne Laser Altimetry flown by Aerometric Inc, now known as Quantum Spatial, Inc. on 12 July, 2013. One Mission was flown and the data jointly processed with LANL personnel to produce a 0.25m DEM covering a region approximately 2.8km wide and 12.4km long extending from the coast above North Salt Lagoon to south of Gas Well Road. This DEM encompasses a diverse range of hydrologic, geomorphic, geophysical and biological features typical of the Barrow Peninsula. Vertical accuracy at the 95% confidence interval was computed as 0.143m. The coordinate system, datum, and geoid for this DEM are UTM Zone 4N, NAD83 (2011), NAVD88 (GEOID09).

  12. Sigma: Strain-level inference of genomes from metagenomic analysis for biosurveillance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Crosskey, JJ; Pan, Chongle

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Metagenomic sequencing of clinical samples provides a promising technique for direct pathogen detection and characterization in biosurveillance. Taxonomic analysis at the strain level can be used to resolve serotypes of a pathogen in biosurveillance. Sigma was developed for strain-level identification and quantification of pathogens using their reference genomes based on metagenomic analysis. Results: Sigma provides not only accurate strain-level inferences, but also three unique capabilities: (i) Sigma quantifies the statistical uncertainty of its inferences, which includes hypothesis testing of identified genomes and confidence interval estimation of their relative abundances; (ii) Sigma enables strain variant calling by assigning metagenomic reads to their most likely reference genomes; and (iii) Sigma supports parallel computing for fast analysis of large datasets. The algorithm performance was evaluated using simulated mock communities and fecal samples with spike-in pathogen strains. Availability and Implementation: Sigma was implemented in C++ with source codes and binaries freely available at http://sigma.omicsbio.org.

  13. LONG TERM AGING AND SURVEILLANCE OF 9975 PACKAGE COMPONENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.; Daugherty, W.; Dunn, K.

    2009-11-10

    The mission of the 9975 package, originally designed only for transportation of radioactive materials, has been broadened to include storage at the Savannah River Site. Two components of this package, namely the containment vessel O-rings and fiberboard overpack, require continued integrity assessment under the storage conditions. The performance of the components over time is being evaluated using accelerated-aging studies. Compression stress relaxation (CSR) and leak testing are being used to measure the performance of O-rings. The performance of the fiberboard is being evaluated using compression strength, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and other physical properties. Models developed from the data collected provide an initial prediction of service life for the two components, and support the conclusion that normal service conditions will not degrade the performance of the package beyond specified functional requirements for the first assessment interval. Increased confidence in this conclusion is derived from field surveillance data and destructive evaluation of packages removed from storage.

  14. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  15. Automatic Estimation of the Radiological Inventory for the Dismantling of Nuclear Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Felipe, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Salas, E.; Martin, N.

    2008-01-15

    The estimation of the radiological inventory of Nuclear Facilities to be dismantled is a process that included information related with the physical inventory of all the plant and radiological survey. Estimation of the radiological inventory for all the components and civil structure of the plant could be obtained with mathematical models with statistical approach. A computer application has been developed in order to obtain the radiological inventory in an automatic way. Results: A computer application that is able to estimate the radiological inventory from the radiological measurements or the characterization program has been developed. In this computer applications has been included the statistical functions needed for the estimation of the central tendency and variability, e.g. mean, median, variance, confidence intervals, variance coefficients, etc. This computer application is a necessary tool in order to be able to estimate the radiological inventory of a nuclear facility and it is a powerful tool for decision taken in future sampling surveys.

  16. Search for first-generation leptoquarks in the jets and missing transverse energy topology in proton-antiproton collisions at center-of-mass energy 1.96 TeV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsybychev, Dmitri

    2004-03-01

    The authors performed a search for the pair production of first-generation leptoquarks using 191 pb{sup -1} of proton-antiproton collision data recorded by the CDF experiment during Run II of the Tevatron. The leptoquarks are sought via their decay into a neutrino and quark, which yields missing transverse energy and several high-E{sub T} jets. Several control regions were studied to check the background estimation from Standard Model sources, with good agreement observed in data. In the leptoquark signal region, 124 events were observed with 118.3 {+-} 14.5 expected from background. Therefore, no evidence for leptoquark production was observed, and limits were set on the cross section times the squared branching ratio. Using the next-to-leading order cross section for leptoquark production, they excluded the mass interval 78 to 117 GeV/c{sup 2} at the 95% confidence level for 100% branching ratio into neutrino plus quark.

  17. INCREASED OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES UTILIZING SECONDARY/TERTIARY RECOVERY TECHNIQUES ON SMALL RESERVOIRS IN THE PARADOX BASIN, UTAH

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas C. Chidsey, Jr.

    2002-11-01

    exhibits a characteristic set of reservoir properties obtained from outcrop analogs, cores, and geophysical logs. The Anasazi and Runway fields were selected for geostatistical modeling and reservoir compositional simulations. Models and simulations incorporated variations in carbonate lithotypes, porosity, and permeability to accurately predict reservoir responses. History matches tied previous production and reservoir pressure histories so that future reservoir performances could be confidently predicted. The simulation studies showed that despite most of the production being from the mound-core intervals, there were no corresponding decreases in the oil in place in these intervals. This behavior indicates gravity drainage of oil from the supra-mound intervals into the lower mound-core intervals from which the producing wells' major share of production arises. The key to increasing ultimate recovery from these fields (and similar fields in the basin) is to design either waterflood or CO{sub 2}-miscible flood projects capable of forcing oil from high-storage-capacity but low-recovery supra-mound units into the high-recovery mound-core units. Simulation of Anasazi field shows that a CO{sub 2} flood is technically superior to a waterflood and economically feasible. For Anasazi field, an optimized CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total 4.21 million barrels (0.67 million m3) of oil representing in excess of 89 percent of the original oil in place. For Runway field, the best CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total of 2.4 million barrels (0.38 million m3) of oil representing 71 percent of the original oil in place. If the CO{sub 2} flood performed as predicted, it is a financially robust process for increasing the reserves in the many small fields in the Paradox Basin. The results can be applied to other fields in the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent.

  18. Randomized Noninferiority Trial of Reduced High-Dose Volume Versus Standard Volume Radiation Therapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Results of the BC2001 Trial (CRUK/01/004)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huddart, Robert A.; Hall, Emma; Hussain, Syed A.; Jenkins, Peter; Rawlings, Christine; Tremlett, Jean; Crundwell, Malcolm; Adab, Fawzi A.; Sheehan, Denise; Syndikus, Isabel; Hendron, Carey; Lewis, Rebecca; Waters, Rachel; James, Nicholas D.

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: To test whether reducing radiation dose to uninvolved bladder while maintaining dose to the tumor would reduce side effects without impairing local control in the treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Methods and Materials: In this phase III multicenter trial, 219 patients were randomized to standard whole-bladder radiation therapy (sRT) or reduced high-dose volume radiation therapy (RHDVRT) that aimed to deliver full radiation dose to the tumor and 80% of maximum dose to the uninvolved bladder. Participants were also randomly assigned to receive radiation therapy alone or radiation therapy plus chemotherapy in a partial 2 2 factorial design. The primary endpoints for the radiation therapy volume comparison were late toxicity and time to locoregional recurrence (with a noninferiority margin of 10% at 2 years). Results: Overall incidence of late toxicity was less than predicted, with a cumulative 2-year Radiation Therapy Oncology Group grade 3/4 toxicity rate of 13% (95% confidence interval 8%, 20%) and no statistically significant differences between groups. The difference in 2-year locoregional recurrence free rate (RHDVRT ? sRT) was 6.4% (95% confidence interval ?7.3%, 16.8%) under an intention to treat analysis and 2.6% (?12.8%, 14.6%) in the per-protocol population. Conclusions: In this study RHDVRT did not result in a statistically significant reduction in late side effects compared with sRT, and noninferiority of locoregional control could not be concluded formally. However, overall low rates of clinically significant toxicity combined with low rates of invasive bladder cancer relapse confirm that (chemo)radiation therapy is a valid option for the treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

  19. Can nontriggered thoracic CT be used for coronary artery calcium scoring? A phantom study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, Xueqian; Greuter, Marcel J. W.; Groen, Jaap M.; Bock, Geertruida H. de; Oudkerk, Matthijs; Jong, Pim A. de; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: Coronary artery calcium score, traditionally based on electrocardiography (ECG)-triggered computed tomography (CT), predicts cardiovascular risk. However, nontriggered CT is extensively utilized. The study-purpose is to evaluate the in vitro agreement in coronary calcium score between nontriggered thoracic CT and ECG-triggered cardiac CT.Methods: Three artificial coronary arteries containing calcifications of different densities (high, medium, and low), and sizes (large, medium, and small), were studied in a moving cardiac phantom. Two 64-detector CT systems were used. The phantom moved at 0–90 mm/s in nontriggered low-dose CT as index test, and at 0–30 mm/s in ECG-triggered CT as reference. Differences in calcium scores between nontriggered and ECG-triggered CT were analyzed by t-test and 95% confidence interval. The sensitivity to detect calcification was calculated as the percentage of positive calcium scores.Results: Overall, calcium scores in nontriggered CT were not significantly different to those in ECG-triggered CT (p > 0.05). Calcium scores in nontriggered CT were within the 95% confidence interval of calcium scores in ECG-triggered CT, except predominantly at higher velocities (≥50 mm/s) for the high-density and large-size calcifications. The sensitivity for a nonzero calcium score was 100% for large calcifications, but 46%± 11% for small calcifications in nontriggered CT.Conclusions: When performing multiple measurements, good agreement in positive calcium scores is found between nontriggered thoracic and ECG-triggered cardiac CT. Agreement decreases with increasing coronary velocity. From this phantom study, it can be concluded that a high calcium score can be detected by nontriggered CT, and thus, that nontriggered CT likely can identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease. On the other hand, a zero calcium score in nontriggered CT does not reliably exclude coronary calcification.

  20. Role of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in ypT0-2N0 Patients Treated with Preoperative Chemoradiation Therapy and Radical Resection for Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, In Ja; Kim, Dae Yong; Kim, Hee Cheol; Kim, Nam Kyu; Kim, Hyeong-Rok; Kang, Sung-Bum; Choi, Gyu-Seog; Lee, Kang Young; Kim, Seon-Hahn; Oh, Seung Taek; Lim, Seok-Byung; Kim, Jin Cheon; Oh, Jae Hwan; Kim, Sun Young; Lee, Woo Yong; Lee, Jung Bok; Yu, Chang Sik

    2015-07-01

    Objective: To explore the role of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with ypT0-2N0 rectal cancer treated by preoperative chemoradiation therapy (PCRT) and radical resection. Patients and Methods: A national consortium of 10 institutions was formed, and patients with ypT0-2N0 mid- and low-rectal cancer after PCRT and radical resection from 2004 to 2009 were included. Patients were categorized into 2 groups according to receipt of additional adjuvant chemotherapy: Adj CTx (+) versus Adj CTx (−). Propensity scores were calculated and used to perform matched and adjusted analyses comparing relapse-free survival (RFS) between treatment groups while controlling for potential confounding. Results: A total of 1016 patients, who met the selection criteria, were evaluated. Of these, 106 (10.4%) did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. There was no overall improvement in 5-year RFS as a result of adjuvant chemotherapy [91.6% for Adj CTx (+) vs 87.5% for Adj CTx (−), P=.18]. There were no differences in 5-year local recurrence and distant metastasis rate between the 2 groups. In patients who show moderate, minimal, or no regression in tumor regression grade, however, possible association of adjuvant chemotherapy with RFS would be considered (hazard ratio 0.35; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.88; P=.03). Cox regression analysis after propensity score matching failed to show that addition of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved RFS (hazard ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.39-1.70; P=.58). Conclusions: Adjuvant chemotherapy seemed to not influence the RFS of patients with ypT0-2N0 rectal cancer after PCRT followed by radical resection. Thus, the addition of adjuvant chemotherapy needs to be weighed against its oncologic benefits.

  1. X-Ray Cross-Complementing Group 1 and Thymidylate Synthase Polymorphisms Might Predict Response to Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamas, Maria J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: 5-Fluorouracil-based chemoradiotherapy before total mesorectal excision is currently the standard treatment of Stage II and III rectal cancer patients. We used known predictive pharmacogenetic biomarkers to identify the responders to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in our series. Methods and Materials: A total of 93 Stage II-III rectal cancer patients were genotyped using peripheral blood samples. The genes analyzed were X-ray cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1), ERCC1, MTHFR, EGFR, DPYD, and TYMS. The patients were treated with 225 mg/m{sup 2}/d continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil concomitantly with radiotherapy (50.4 Gy) followed by total mesorectal excision. The outcomes were measured by tumor regression grade (TRG) as a major response (TRG 1 and TRG 2) or as a poor response (TRG3, TRG4, and TRG5). Results: The major histopathologic response rate was 47.3%. XRCC1 G/G carriers had a greater probability of response than G/A carriers (odds ratio, 4.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.62-10.74, p = .003) Patients with polymorphisms associated with high expression of thymidylate synthase (2R/3G, 3C/3G, and 3G/3G) showed a greater pathologic response rate compared with carriers of low expression (odds ratio, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-6.39, p = .02) No significant differences were seen in the response according to EGFR, ERCC1, MTHFR{sub C}677 and MTHFR{sub A}1298 expression. Conclusions: XRCC1 G/G and thymidylate synthase (2R/3G, 3C/3G, and 3G/3G) are independent factors of a major response. Germline thymidylate synthase and XRCC1 polymorphisms might be useful as predictive markers of rectal tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with 5-fluorouracil.

  2. Quality of Life Assessment After Concurrent Chemoradiation for Invasive Bladder Cancer: Results of a Multicenter Prospective Study (GETUG 97-015)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lagrange, Jean-Leon; Bascoul-Mollevi, Caroline; Geoffrois, Lionnel; Beckendorf, Veronique; Ferrero, Jean-Marc; Joly, Florence; Allouache, Nedjila; Bachaud, Jean-Marc; Chevreau, Christine; Kramar, Andrew; Chauvet, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate bladder preservation and functional quality after concurrent chemoradiotherapy for muscle-invasive cancer in 53 patients included in a Phase II trial. Patient and Methods: Pelvic irradiation delivered 45Gy, followed by an 18-Gy boost. Concurrent chemotherapy with cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil by continuous infusion was performed at Weeks 1, 4, and 7 during radiotherapy. Patients initially suitable for surgery were evaluated with macroscopically complete transurethral resection after 45Gy, followed by radical cystectomy in case of incomplete response. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire QLQ-C30, specific items on bladder function, and the Late Effects in Normal Tissues-Subjective, Objective, Management, and Analytic (LENT-SOMA) symptoms scale were used to evaluate quality of life before treatment and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment. Results: Median age was 68 years for 51 evaluable patients. Thirty-two percent of patients had T2a tumors, 46% T2b, 16% T3, and 6% T4. A visibly complete transurethral resection was possible in 66%. Median follow-up was 8 years. Bladder was preserved in 67% (95% confidence interval, 52-79%) of patients. Overall survival was 36% (95% confidence interval, 23-49%) at 8 years for all patients, and 45% (28-61%) for the 36 patients suitable for surgery. Satisfactory bladder function, according to LENT-SOMA, was reported for 100% of patients with preserved bladder and locally controlled disease 6-36 months after the beginning of treatment. Satisfactory bladder function was reported for 35% of patients before treatment and for 43%, 57%, and 29%, respectively, at 6, 18, and 36 months. Conclusions: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy allowed bladder preservation with tumor control for 67% patients at 8 years. Quality of life and quality of bladder function were satisfactory for 67% of patients.

  3. Clinical Evaluation of Stereotactic Target Localization Using 3-Tesla MRI for Radiosurgery Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacFadden, Derek [University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zhang Beibei; Brock, Kristy K. [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hodaie, Mojgan [Division of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Laperriere, Normand [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Schwartz, Michael [Division of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Tsao, May [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Regional Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); Stainsby, Jeffrey [Applied Science Laboratories, GE Healthcare, Mississauga, ON (Canada); Lockwood, Gina [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Mikulis, David [Department of Medical Imaging, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Menard, Cynthia, E-mail: cynthia.menard@rmp.uhn.on.c [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: Increasing the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) field strength can improve image resolution and quality, but concerns remain regarding the influence on geometric fidelity. The objectives of the present study were to spatially investigate the effect of 3-Tesla (3T) MRI on clinical target localization for stereotactic radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: A total of 39 patients were enrolled in a research ethics board-approved prospective clinical trial. Imaging (1.5T and 3T MRI and computed tomography) was performed after stereotactic frame placement. Stereotactic target localization at 1.5T vs. 3T was retrospectively analyzed in a representative cohort of patients with tumor (n = 4) and functional (n = 5) radiosurgical targets. The spatial congruency of the tumor gross target volumes was determined by the mean discrepancy between the average gross target volume surfaces at 1.5T and 3T. Reproducibility was assessed by the displacement from an averaged surface and volume congruency. Spatial congruency and the reproducibility of functional radiosurgical targets was determined by comparing the mean and standard deviation of the isocenter coordinates. Results: Overall, the mean absolute discrepancy across all patients was 0.67 mm (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.83), significantly <1 mm (p < .010). No differences were found in the overall interuser target volume congruence (mean, 84% for 1.5T vs. 84% for 3T, p > .4), and the gross target volume surface mean displacements were similar within and between users. The overall average isocenter coordinate discrepancy for the functional targets at 1.5T and 3T was 0.33 mm (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.48), with no patient-specific differences between the mean values (p >.2) or standard deviations (p >.1). Conclusion: Our results have provided clinically relevant evidence supporting the spatial validity of 3T MRI for use in stereotactic radiosurgery under the imaging conditions used.

  4. Assessing the credibility of the calorific value of municipal solid waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Churney, K.L.; Domalski, E.S.; Ledford, A.E.; Colbert, J.C.; Bruce, S.S.; Buckley, T.J.; Paule, R.C.; Reilly, M.L.

    1984-02-01

    A study has been made at the National Bureau of Standards to establish the limits of reliability of the calorific value of municipal solid waste (MSW) determined by the bomb calorimetric procedure currently used in commercial test laboratories. This procedure involves using gram-size samples derived from MSW that has been processed down to a particle size of 2 mm or less. Critics of the procedure argue that gram-size samples are too small to be representative of such a large quantity of so heterogeneous a material, and that processing MSW may also alter its composition. To test the bomb calorimetric procedure, a 2.5 kg capacity combustion flow calorimeter was designed and constructed for the determination of the enthalpies of combustion of kilogram-size samples of MSW in flowing oxygen near atmospheric pressure. Calorimetric data on processed MSW were obtained using both the kilogram-size flow and a gram-size bomb calorimeter. Intercomparison of results shows that the calorific value (on a dry basis) of gram-size test samples agrees, within the uncertainty of our experiments, with the corresponding values for their kilogram-size parent samples provided that the sample division technique used to obtain the gram-size samples is that described in this work. The average difference of the parent minus gram-size sample values (on a dry basis) is -0.1% with an imprecision (95% confidence interval) of +-1.1% of the mean calorific value. The effects of processing on sample composition were determined by intercomparison of flow calorimetric results on kilogram-size samples of processed and minimally processed MSW (150 mm or less particle size) that are nominally identical. The average difference of the unprocessed minus processed values (on a dry basis) is -0.5% with an imprecision (95% confidence interval) of +-2.9% of the mean calorific value. 7 references, 4 figures, 10 tables.

  5. Tumor Epression of Major Vault Protein is an Adverse Prognostic Factor for Radiotherapy Outcome in Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Silva, Priyamal; West, Catharine M.; Slevin, Nick F.R.C.R.; Valentine, Helen; Ryder, W. David J. Grad. I.S.; Hampson, Lynne; Bibi, Rufzan; Sloan, Philip; Thakker, Nalin; Homer, Jarrod; Hampson, Ian

    2007-09-01

    Purpose: Vaults are multi-subunit structures that may be involved in nucleo-cytoplasmic transport, with the major vault protein (MVP or lung resistance-related protein [LRP]) being the main component. The MVP gene is located on chromosome 16 close to the multidrug resistance-associated protein and protein kinase c-{beta} genes. The role of MVP in cancer drug resistance has been demonstrated in various cell lines as well as in ovarian carcinomas and acute myeloid leukemia, but nothing is known about its possible role in radiation resistance. Our aim was to examine this in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods and Materials: Archived biopsy material was obtained for 78 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx who received primary radiotherapy with curative intent. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect MVP expression. Locoregional failure and cancer-specific survival were estimated using cumulative incidence and Cox multivariate analyses. Results: In a univariate and multivariate analysis, MVP expression was strongly associated with both locoregional failure and cancer-specific survival. After adjustment for disease site, stage, grade, anemia, smoking, alcohol, gender, and age, the estimated hazard ratio for high MVP (2/3) compared with low (0/1) was 4.98 (95% confidence interval, 2.17-11.42; p 0.0002) for locoregional failure and 4.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-9.95; p = 0.001) for cancer-specific mortality. Conclusion: These data are the first to show that MVP may be a useful prognostic marker associated with radiotherapy resistance in a subgroup of patients with HNSCC.

  6. Toward a Classical Thermodynamic Model for Retro-cognition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    May, Edwin C.

    2011-11-29

    Retro-cognition--a human response before a randomly determined future stimulus--has always been part of our experience. Experiments over the last 80 years show a small but statistically significant effect. If this turns out to be true, then it suggests a form of macroscopic retro-causation. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics provides an explanation for the apparent single direction of time at the macroscopic level although time is reversible at the microscopic level. In a preliminary study, I examined seven anomalous cognition (a.k.a., ESP) studies in which the entropic gradients and the entropy of their associated target systems were calculated, and the quality of the response was estimated by a rating system called the figure of merit. The combined Spearman's correlation coefficient for these variables for the seven studies was 0.211 (p = 6.4x10{sup -4}) with a 95% confidence interval for the correlation of [0.084, 0.332]; whereas, the same data for a correlation with the entropy itself was 0.028 (p = 0.36; 95% confidence interval of [-0.120-0.175]). This suggests that anomalous cognition is mediated via some kind of a sensory system in that all the normal sensory systems are more sensitive to changes than they are to inputs that are not changing. A standard relationship for the change of entropy of a binary sequence appears to provide an upper limit to anomalous cognition functioning for free response and for forced-choice Zener card guessing. This entropic relation and an apparent limit set by the entropy may provide a clue for understanding macroscopic retro-causation.

  7. Representative Doses to Members of the Public from Atmospheric Releases of 131I at the Mayak Production Association Facilities from 1948 through 1972

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Napier, Bruce A.; Anspaugh, Lynn R.

    2014-04-03

    Scoping epidemiologic studies performed by researchers from the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute revealed an excess prevalence of thyroid nodules and an increased incidence of thyroid cancer among residents of Ozersk, Russia, who were born in the early 1950s. Ozersk is located about 5 km from the facilities where the Mayak Production Association produced nuclear materials for the Russian weapons program. Reactor operations began in June 1948 and chemical separation of plutonium from irradiated fuel began in February 1949. The U.S.–Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research conducted a series of projects over a 10-year period to assess the radiation risks in the Southern Urals. This paper uses data collected under Committee projects to reconstruct individual time-dependent thyroid doses to reference individuals living in Ozersk from 131I released to the atmosphere. Between 3.22×1016 and 4.31×1016 Bq of 131I released may have been released during the 1948–1972 time period, and a best estimate is 3.76×1016 Bq. A child born in 1947 is estimated to have received a cumulative thyroid dose of 2.3 Gy for 1948–1972, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.51–7.3 Gy. Annual doses were the highest in 1949 and a child who was 5 years old in 1949 is estimated to have a received an annual thyroid dose of 0.93 Gy with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19–3.5 Gy.

  8. Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feng, Felix Y.; Blas, Kevin; Olson, Karin; Stenmark, Matthew; Sandler, Howard; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64 months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.

  9. CANDIDATE PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONES OF KEPLER STARS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gaidos, Eric

    2013-06-20

    A key goal of the Kepler mission is the discovery of Earth-size transiting planets in ''habitable zones'' where stellar irradiance maintains a temperate climate on an Earth-like planet. Robust estimates of planet radius and irradiance require accurate stellar parameters, but most Kepler systems are faint, making spectroscopy difficult and prioritization of targets desirable. The parameters of 2035 host stars were estimated by Bayesian analysis and the probabilities p{sub HZ} that 2738 candidate or confirmed planets orbit in the habitable zone were calculated. Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program models were compared to photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog, priors for stellar mass, age, metallicity and distance, and planet transit duration. The analysis yielded probability density functions for calculating confidence intervals of planet radius and stellar irradiance, as well as p{sub HZ}. Sixty-two planets have p{sub HZ} > 0.5 and a most probable stellar irradiance within habitable zone limits. Fourteen of these have radii less than twice the Earth; the objects most resembling Earth in terms of radius and irradiance are KOIs 2626.01 and 3010.01, which orbit late K/M-type dwarf stars. The fraction of Kepler dwarf stars with Earth-size planets in the habitable zone ({eta}{sub Circled-Plus }) is 0.46, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.31-0.64. Parallaxes from the Gaia mission will reduce uncertainties by more than a factor of five and permit definitive assignments of transiting planets to the habitable zones of Kepler stars.

  10. Propensity Score–Matched Analysis of Comprehensive Local Therapy for Oligometastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer That Did Not Progress After Front-Line Chemotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sheu, Tommy; Heymach, John V.; Swisher, Stephen G.; Rao, Ganesh; Weinberg, Jeffrey S.; Mehran, Reza; McAleer, Mary Frances; Liao, Zhongxing; Aloia, Thomas A.; Gomez, Daniel R.

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: To retrospectively analyze factors influencing survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer presenting with ≤3 synchronous metastatic lesions. Methods and Materials: We identified 90 patients presenting between 1998 and 2012 with non-small cell lung cancer and ≤3 metastatic lesions who had received at least 2 cycles of chemotherapy followed by surgery or radiation therapy before disease progression. The median number of chemotherapy cycles before comprehensive local therapy (CLT) (including concurrent chemoradiation as first-line therapy) was 6. Factors potentially affecting overall (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards regression. Propensity score matching was used to assess the efficacy of CLT. Results: Median follow-up time was 46.6 months. Benefits in OS (27.1 vs 13.1 months) and PFS (11.3 months vs 8.0 months) were found with CLT, and the differences were statistically significant when propensity score matching was used (P ≤ .01). On adjusted analysis, CLT had a statistically significant benefit in terms of OS (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.70; P ≤ .01) but not PFS (P=.10). In an adjusted subgroup analysis of patients receiving CLT, favorable performance status (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.84; P=.01) was found to predict improved OS. Conclusions: Comprehensive local therapy was associated with improved OS in an adjusted analysis and seemed to favorably influence OS and PFS when factors such as N status, number of metastatic lesions, and disease sites were controlled for with propensity score–matched analysis. Patients with favorable performance status had improved outcomes with CLT. Ultimately, prospective, randomized trials are needed to provide definitive evidence as to the optimal treatment approach for this patient population.

  11. Methods for measuring lead concentrations in paint films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKnight, M.E.; Byrd, W.E.; Roberts, W.E.; Lagergren, E.S.

    1989-12-01

    Recent legislation required the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to establish procedures to abate lead-based paint in existing HUD-assisted housing. The legislation also required HUD to assess the accuracy, precision, reliability, and safety of methods for measuring lead content of paint films and to investigate the availability of testers and samplers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology was requested to carry out the assessment. With regard to accuracy and precision of field measurements, it was concluded that: chemical spot tests when carried out by an experienced analytical chemistry technician can detect the presence of lead in paint films having concentrations in excess of 1 mg/sq cm about 90% of the time; the estimate of the precision of a field measurement procedure using lead-specific portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzers for lead concentrations near 1 mg/sq cm is + or - 0.6 mg/sq cm and the estimate of the bias is 0.2 mg/sq cm; this results in a 95% confidence interval of + or - 1.4 mg/sq cm; and based upon very preliminary measurements using the latest version of the spectrum analyzer portable XRF, the 95% confidence interval for field measurements is estimated to be + or - 0.5 mg/sq cm. In addition to field methods, standard laboratory procedures can be used to measure the lead content of paint samples to within a few percent of the quantity present over a wide range extending from less than 0.1 to over 10 mg/sq cm. Sample collection and sample dissolution procedures were also investigated.

  12. Snake River Plain Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 Raster Files

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Shervais

    2015-10-09

    Snake River Plain Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 CRS Raster Files. This dataset contains raster files created in ArcGIS. These raster images depict Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for HEAT, PERMEABILITY, AND SEAL, as well as selected maps of Evidence Layers. These evidence layers consist of either Bayesian krige functions or kernel density functions, and include: (1) HEAT: Heat flow (Bayesian krige map), Heat flow standard error on the krige function (data confidence), volcanic vent distribution as function of age and size, groundwater temperature (equivalue interval and natural breaks bins), and groundwater T standard error. (2) PERMEABILTY: Fault and lineament maps, both as mapped and as kernel density functions, processed for both dilational tendency (TD) and slip tendency (ST), along with data confidence maps for each data type. Data types include mapped surface faults from USGS and Idaho Geological Survey data bases, as well as unpublished mapping; lineations derived from maximum gradients in magnetic, deep gravity, and intermediate depth gravity anomalies. (3) SEAL: Seal maps based on presence and thickness of lacustrine sediments and base of SRP aquifer. Raster size is 2 km. All files generated in ArcGIS.

  13. TEST OF THE HEMISPHERIC RULE OF MAGNETIC HELICITY IN THE SUN USING THE HELIOSEISMIC AND MAGNETIC IMAGER (HMI) DATA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Y.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Sun, X.

    2014-03-01

    Magnetic twist in solar active regions (ARs) has been found to have a hemispheric preference in sign (hemisphere rule): negative in the northern hemisphere and positive in the southern. The preference reported in previous studies ranges greatly, from ? 58% to 82%. In this study, we examine this hemispheric preference using vector magnetic field data taken by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and find that 75% 7% of 151ARs studied obey the hemisphere rule, well within the preference range in previous studies. If the sample is divided into two groupsARs having magnetic twist and writhe of the same sign and having opposite signsthe strength of the hemispheric preference differs substantially: 64% 11% for the former group and 87% 8% for the latter. This difference becomes even more significant in a sub-sample of 82ARs having a simple bipole magnetic configuration: 56% 16% for theARs having the same signs of twist and writhe, and 93% with lower and upper confidence bounds of 80% and 98% for theARs having the opposite signs. The error reported here is a 95% confidence interval. This may suggest that, prior to emergence of magnetic tubes, either the sign of twist does not have a hemispheric preference or the twist is relatively weak.

  14. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 2 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUEL SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TENNESSEE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-01-21

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on November 15, 2012. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and the results are compared using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER {<=} 3 indicates that, at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2012). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, all DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations.

  15. ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Van Dyk, David A.; Xu Jin [Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-1250 (United States); Connors, Alanna [Eureka Scientific, 2452 Delmer Street, Suite 100, Oakland, CA 94602-3017 (United States); Freeman, Peter E. [Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Zezas, Andreas, E-mail: vkashyap@cfa.harvard.ed, E-mail: asiemiginowska@cfa.harvard.ed, E-mail: dvd@ics.uci.ed, E-mail: jinx@ics.uci.ed, E-mail: aconnors@eurekabayes.co, E-mail: pfreeman@cmu.ed, E-mail: azezas@cfa.harvard.ed [Physics Department, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, GR-710 03, Heraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2010-08-10

    A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error), and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper

  16. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in protonproton collisions at ?s = 8 TeV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khachatryan, V.

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any protonproton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6fb? of 8TeV protonproton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.62.5 events. Limits are presented at 95 % confidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ?1000GeV and a top squark with mass ?525GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 ?s and 1000s. These results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.

  17. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in protonproton collisions at ?s = 8 TeV

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Khachatryan, V.

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any protonproton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6fb? of 8TeV protonproton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.62.5 events. Limits are presented at 95 %moreconfidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ?1000GeV and a top squark with mass ?525GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 ?s and 1000s. These results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.less

  18. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in proton–proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}= 8\\,\\text {TeV} $$

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any proton–proton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6 fb-1 of 8 TeV proton–proton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.6 -2.5 events. Limits are presentedmore » at 95 % confidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ≤1000 GeV and a top squark with mass ≤525 GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 µs and 1000 s. Finally, these results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.« less

  19. Role of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Hodgkin Lymphoma Who Failed Autologous Stem Cell Transplant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goda, Jayant S.; Massey, Christine; Kuruvilla, John; Gospodarowicz, Mary K.; Wells, Woodrow; Hodgson, David C.; Sun, Alexander; Keating, Armand; Crump, Michael; Tsang, Richard W.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To analyze, through chart review, the efficacy of salvage radiation therapy (sRT) for relapsed or progressive Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients who failed autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT). Patients and Methods: Among 347 patients with recurrent/refractory HL who received ASCT from 1986-2006, 163 had post-ASCT progression or relapse. Of these, 56 received sRT and form the basis of this report. Median age at sRT was 30 years (range, 17-59 years). Disease was confined to lymph nodes in 27 patients, whereas 24 had both nodal and extranodal disease. Salvage radiation therapy alone was given in 34 patients (61%), and sRT plus chemotherapy was given in 22 (39%). Median interval from ASCT to sRT was 0.8 years (range, 0.1-5.6 years). The median dose was 35 Gy (range, 8-40.3 Gy). The sRT technique was extended-field in 14 patients (25%) and involved-field in 42 (75%). Results: The median follow-up from sRT was 31.3 months (range, 0.2-205.5 months). Overall response rate was 84% (complete response: 36%; partial response: 48%). The median overall survival was 40.8 months (95% confidence interval, 34.2-56.3 months). The 5-year overall survival was 29% (95% confidence interval, 14%-44%). The 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 16%; the 2-year local PFS was 65%, whereas the 2-year systemic PFS was 17%. The 1-year PFS was higher in patients in whom all diseased sites were irradiated (49%) compared with those in whom only the symptomatic site was treated (22%, P=.07). Among 20 alive patients, 5 were disease free (at 6.4, 6.8, 7.4, 7.9, and 17.1 years). Conclusion: For patients with HL who fail ASCT, a selective use of RT provides a durable local control rate of 65% at 2 years and should be considered as part of the standard management plan for the palliation of incurable HL. Occasionally irradiation of truly localized disease can lead to long-term survival.

  20. ASC Program Elements | National Nuclear Security Administration...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    supports the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Defense Programs' shift in emphasis from test-based confidence to simulation-based confidence. ...

  1. MMCR Spectra-based Hydrometeor Phase Classifier: Evaluation ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (best of several "high confidence" subsets) Liquid Solid Mixed 92% 81% 81% SUMMARY EVALUATION METHOD Align MPACE data to MMCR grid. Select a "high confidence" subset from...

  2. sequoia

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    shift in emphasis from test-based confidence to simulation-based confidence. Under ASC, computer simulation capabilities are developed to analyze and predict the performance,...

  3. cielo

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    shift in emphasis from test-based confidence to simulation-based confidence. Under ASC, computer simulation capabilities are developed to analyze and predict the performance,...

  4. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 4 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUELS SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2013-08-15

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on June 12, 2013. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and Table 1 presents the comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER ≤ 3 indicates at a 99% confidence interval that split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report specifies 95% confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2013). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, most DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations. The gross beta result for sample 5198W0014 was the exception. The ORAU gross beta result of 6.30 ± 0.65 pCi/L from location NRD is well above NFS's non-detected result of 1.56 ± 0.59 pCi/L. NFS's data package includes no detected result for any radionuclide at location NRD. At NRC's request, ORAU performed gamma spectroscopic analysis of sample 5198W0014 to identify analytes contributing to the relatively elevated gross beta results. This analysis identified detected amounts of naturally-occurring constituents, most notably Ac-228 from the thorium decay series, and does not suggest the presence of site-related contamination.

  5. Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Palmer, Matthew D.; Zhu, Jiang; Abraham, John P.

    2016-07-26

    Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970–2005 and 1992–2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95 % confidence interval of the median. The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our observational estimate:more » 0.68 [0.54–0.82]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.42 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance over the historical period. We suggest that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation, especially for forced changes (decadal timescales).« less

  6. The Gemini NICI planet-finding campaign: the orbit of the young exoplanet ? Pictoris b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nielsen, Eric L.; Liu, Michael C.; Chun, Mark; Ftaclas, Christ; Wahhaj, Zahed; Biller, Beth A.; Hayward, Thomas L.; Kuchner, Marc J.; Rodigas, Timothy J.; Toomey, Douglas W.

    2014-10-20

    We present new astrometry for the young (12-21 Myr) exoplanet ? Pictoris b taken with the Gemini/NICI and Magellan/MagAO instruments between 2009 and 2012. The high dynamic range of our observations allows us to measure the relative position of ? Pic b with respect to its primary star with greater accuracy than previous observations. Based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis, we find the planet has an orbital semi-major axis of 9.1{sub ?0.5}{sup +5.3} AU and orbital eccentricity <0.15 at 68% confidence (with 95% confidence intervals of 8.2-48 AU and 0.00-0.82 for semi-major axis and eccentricity, respectively, due to a long narrow degenerate tail between the two). We find that the planet has reached its maximum projected elongation, enabling higher precision determination of the orbital parameters than previously possible, and that the planet's projected separation is currently decreasing. With unsaturated data of the entire ? Pic system (primary star, planet, and disk) obtained thanks to NICI's semi-transparent focal plane mask, we are able to tightly constrain the relative orientation of the circumstellar components. We find the orbital plane of the planet lies between the inner and outer disks: the position angle (P.A.) of nodes for the planet's orbit (211.8 0.3) is 7.4? greater than the P.A. of the spine of the outer disk and 3.2? less than the warped inner disk P.A., indicating the disk is not collisionally relaxed. Finally, for the first time we are able to dynamically constrain the mass of the primary star ? Pic to 1.76{sub ?0.17}{sup +0.18} M {sub ?}.

  7. THE FERMI-GBM X-RAY BURST MONITOR: THERMONUCLEAR BURSTS FROM 4U 0614+09

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linares, M.; Chakrabarty, D. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Connaughton, V.; Bhat, P. N.; Briggs, M. S.; Preece, R. [CSPAR and Physics Department, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Jenke, P.; Kouveliotou, C.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A. [Space Science Office, VP62, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Van der Horst, A. J. [Astronomical Institute 'Anton Pannekoek', University of Amsterdam, NL-1090-GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Camero-Arranz, A.; Finger, M.; Paciesas, W. S. [Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Beklen, E. [Physics Department, Suleyman Demirel University, 32260 Isparta (Turkey); Von Kienlin, A. [Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstrasse, Postfach 1312, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2012-12-01

    Thermonuclear bursts from slowly accreting neutron stars (NSs) have proven difficult to detect, yet they are potential probes of the thermal properties of the NS interior. During the first year of a systematic all-sky search for X-ray bursts using the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope we have detected 15 thermonuclear bursts from the NS low-mass X-ray binary 4U 0614+09 when it was accreting at nearly 1% of the Eddington limit. We measured an average burst recurrence time of 12 {+-} 3 days (68% confidence interval) between 2010 March and 2011 March, classified all bursts as normal duration bursts and placed a lower limit on the recurrence time of long/intermediate bursts of 62 days (95% confidence level). We discuss how observations of thermonuclear bursts in the hard X-ray band compare to pointed soft X-ray observations and quantify such bandpass effects on measurements of burst radiated energy and duration. We put our results for 4U 0614+09 in the context of other bursters and briefly discuss the constraints on ignition models. Interestingly, we find that the burst energies in 4U 0614+09 are on average between those of normal duration bursts and those measured in long/intermediate bursts. Such a continuous distribution in burst energy provides a new observational link between normal and long/intermediate bursts. We suggest that the apparent bimodal distribution that defined normal and long/intermediate duration bursts during the last decade could be due to an observational bias toward detecting only the longest and most energetic bursts from slowly accreting NSs.

  8. Clinal morphological variation along a depth gradient in the living scleractinian reef coral Favia pallida: Effects on perceived evolutionary tempos in the fossil record

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cuffey, R.J. ); Pachut, J.F. )

    1990-12-01

    The Holocene reef-building coral Favia pallida was sampled at 4.5 m depth increments (to 40 m) from two reefs on Enewetak Atoll to examine intraspecific environmental effects. An exposed outer reef was massive and wall-like, whereas a sheltered lagoonal reef grew as a slender pinnacle. Corallite diameter and growth rate, two attributes retrievable in fossil corals, were measured with data partitioned into shallow (<20 m), intermediate (20 to 29 m), and deep-water (>29 m) subsets. Highly significant differences between depth zone populations were found for both corallite diameters and growth rates in analyses of individual and combined reef data sets. Canonical variates analyses (CVA) separated populations from depth zones along single, highly significant, functions. Centroids and 95% confidence intervals, calculated from CVA scores of colonies in each population, are widely separated for the lagoon reef and combined data sets. Conversely, populations from shallow and intermediate depths on the outer reef display overlapping confidence bars indicative of more gradational morphologic changes. When CV's were used to classify specimens to groups, misassignments of intermediate depth specimens to shallow or deep-water populations underscored the gradational nature of the environment. Completely intergrading populations of Favia pallida collected from different depths can be morphologically separated into statistically distinct groupings. A stratigraphic succession of such morphotypes might be interpreted as abruptly appearing separate species if sampling were not as uniform, systematic, and detailed as was possible on modern reefs. Analyses of evolutionary patterns must carefully assess potential effects of clinal variation if past evolutionary patterns are to be interpreted correctly.

  9. Simple Method to Estimate Mean Heart Dose From Hodgkin Lymphoma Radiation Therapy According to Simulation X-Rays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nimwegen, Frederika A. van; Cutter, David J.; Schaapveld, Michael; Rutten, Annemarieke; Kooijman, Karen; Krol, Augustinus D.G.; Janus, Cécile P.M.; Darby, Sarah C.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Aleman, Berthe M.P.

    2015-05-01

    Purpose: To describe a new method to estimate the mean heart dose for Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated several decades ago, using delineation of the heart on radiation therapy simulation X-rays. Mean heart dose is an important predictor for late cardiovascular complications after Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treatment. For patients treated before the era of computed tomography (CT)-based radiotherapy planning, retrospective estimation of radiation dose to the heart can be labor intensive. Methods and Materials: Patients for whom cardiac radiation doses had previously been estimated by reconstruction of individual treatments on representative CT data sets were selected at random from a case–control study of 5-year Hodgkin lymphoma survivors (n=289). For 42 patients, cardiac contours were outlined on each patient's simulation X-ray by 4 different raters, and the mean heart dose was estimated as the percentage of the cardiac contour within the radiation field multiplied by the prescribed mediastinal dose and divided by a correction factor obtained by comparison with individual CT-based dosimetry. Results: According to the simulation X-ray method, the medians of the mean heart doses obtained from the cardiac contours outlined by the 4 raters were 30 Gy, 30 Gy, 31 Gy, and 31 Gy, respectively, following prescribed mediastinal doses of 25-42 Gy. The absolute-agreement intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.97), indicating excellent agreement. Mean heart dose was 30.4 Gy with the simulation X-ray method, versus 30.2 Gy with the representative CT-based dosimetry, and the between-method absolute-agreement intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.95), indicating good agreement between the two methods. Conclusion: Estimating mean heart dose from radiation therapy simulation X-rays is reproducible and fast, takes individual anatomy into account, and yields results comparable to the labor

  10. Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Oligometastases to the Lung: A Phase 2 Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nuyttens, Joost J.; Voort van Zyp, Noëlle C.M.G. van der; Verhoef, Cornelis; Maat, A.; Klaveren, Robertus J. van; Holt, Bronno van der; Aerts, Joachim; Hoogeman, Mischa

    2015-02-01

    Purpose: To assess, in a phase 2 study, the efficacy and toxicity of stereotactic body radiation therapy for oligometastases to the lung in inoperable patients. Methods and Materials: Patients with lung metastases were included in this study if (1) the primary tumor was controlled; (2) patients were ineligible for or refused surgery and chemotherapy; and (3) patients had 5 or fewer metastatic lesions in no more than 2 organs. Large peripheral tumors were treated with a dose of 60 Gy (3 fractions), small peripheral tumors with 30 Gy (1 fraction), central tumors received 60 Gy (5 fractions), and mediastinal tumors or tumors close to the esophagus received 56 Gy (7 fractions). Results: Thirty patients with 57 metastatic lung tumors from various primary cancers were analyzed. The median follow-up was 36 months (range, 4-60 months). At 2 years, local control for the 11 central tumors was 100%, for the 23 peripheral tumors treated to 60 Gy it was 91%, and for the 23 tumors treated in a single 30-Gy fraction it was 74% (P=.13). This resulted in an overall local control rate at 1 year of 79%, with a 2-sided 80% confidence interval of 67% to 87%. Because the hypothesized value of 70% lies within the confidence interval, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the true local control rate at 1 year is ≤70%, and therefore we did not achieve the goal of the study: an actuarial local control of the treated lung lesions at 1 year of 90%. The 4-year overall survival rate was 38%. Grade 3 acute toxicity occurred in 5 patients. Three patients complained of chronic grade 3 toxicity, including pain, fatigue, and pneumonitis, and 3 patients had rib fractures. Conclusions: The local control was promising, and the 4-year overall survival rate was 38%. The treatment was well tolerated, even for central lesions.

  11. Volume-Based Parameters of {sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography Improve Disease Recurrence Prediction in Postmastectomy Breast Cancer Patients With 1 to 3 Positive Axillary Lymph Nodes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakajima, Naomi; Kataoka, Masaaki; Sugawara, Yoshifumi; Ochi, Takashi; Kiyoto, Sachiko; Ohsumi, Shozo; Mochizuki, Teruhito

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To determine whether volume-based parameters on pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography in breast cancer patients treated with mastectomy without adjuvant radiation therapy are predictive of recurrence. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 93 patients with 1 to 3 positive axillary nodes after surgery, who were studied with {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography for initial staging. We evaluated the relationship between positron emission tomography parameters, including the maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and clinical outcomes. Results: The median follow-up duration was 45 months. Recurrence was observed in 11 patients. Metabolic tumor volume and TLG were significantly related to tumor size, number of involved nodes, nodal ratio, nuclear grade, estrogen receptor (ER) status, and triple negativity (TN) (all P values were <.05). In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, MTV and TLG showed better predictive performance than tumor size, ER status, or TN (area under the curve: 0.85, 0.86, 0.79, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively). On multivariate analysis, MTV was an independent prognostic factor of locoregional recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 34.42, 95% confidence interval 3.94-882.71, P=.0008) and disease-free survival (DFS) (hazard ratio 13.92, 95% confidence interval 2.65-103.78, P=.0018). The 3-year DFS rate was 93.8% for the lower MTV group (<53.1; n=85) and 25.0% for the higher MTV group (?53.1; n=8; P<.0001, logrank test). The 3-year DFS rate for patients with both ER-positive status and MTV <53.1 was 98.2%; and for those with ER-negative status and MTV ?53.1 it was 25.0% (P<.0001). Conclusions: Volume-based parameters improve recurrence prediction in postmastectomy breast cancer patients with 1 to 3 positive nodes. The addition of MTV to ER status or TN has potential

  12. Measurement of CP violation observables and parameters for the decays $B^{\\pm}\\to DK^{*\\pm}$

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aubert, Bernard; Karyotakis, Y.; Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Prencipe, E.; Prudent, X.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Martinelli, M.; Palano, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Sun, L.; Battaglia, M.; Brown, D.N.; Kerth, L.T.; Kolomensky, Yu.G.; Lynch, G.; Osipenkov, I.L.; /UC, Berkeley /Birmingham U. /Ruhr U., Bochum /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UC, Riverside /UC, San Diego /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Dresden, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /Frascati /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Harvard U. /Heidelberg U. /Humboldt U., Berlin /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa State U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Orsay, LAL /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Mainz U., Inst. Kernphys. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT /McGill U. /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /INFN, Milan /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /Mt. Holyoke Coll. /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /INFN, Naples /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /INFN, Padua /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /Pennsylvania U. /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DAPNIA, Saclay /SLAC /South Carolina U. /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tel Aviv U. /Tennessee U. /Texas U. /Texas U., Dallas /INFN, Turin /Turin U. /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U. /Valencia U. /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2010-08-26

    We study the decay B{sup -} {yields} DK*{sup -} using a sample of 379 x 10{sup 6} {Upsilon}(4S) {yields} B{bar B} events collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II B-factory. We perform a 'GLW' analysis where the D meson decays into either a CP-even (CP+) eigenstate (K{sup +}K{sup -}, {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}), CP-odd (CP-) eigenstate (K{sub S}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, K{sub S}{sup 0}{phi}, K{sub S}{sup 0}{omega}) or a non-CP state (K{sup -}{pi}{sup +}). We also analyze D meson decays into K{sup +}{pi}{sup -} from a Cabibbo-favored {bar D}{sup 0} decay or doubly suppressed D{sup 0} decay ('ADS' analysis). We measure observables that are sensitive to the CKM angle {gamma}: the partial-rate charge asymmetries A{sub CP{+-}}, the ratios R{sub CP{+-}} of the B-decay branching fractions in CP{+-} and non-CP decay, the ratio R{sub ADS} of the charge-averaged branching fractions, and the charge asymmetry A{sub ADS} of the ADS decays: A{sub CP+} = 0.09 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.06, A{sub CP-} = -0.23 {+-} 0.21 {+-} 0.07, R{sub CP+} = 2.17 {+-} 0.35 {+-} 0.09, R{sub CP-} = 1.03 {+-} 0.27 {+-} 0.13, R{sub ADS} = 0.066 {+-} 0.031 {+-} 0.010, and A{sub ADS} = -0.34 {+-} 0.43 {+-} 0.16, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. Combining all the measurements and using a frequentist approach yields the magnitude of the ratio between the Cabibbo-suppressed and favored amplitudes, r{sub B} = 0.31 with a one (two) sigma confidence level interval of [0.24, 0.38] ([0.17, 0.43]). The value r{sub B} = 0 is excluded at the 3.3 sigma level. A similar analysis excludes values of {gamma} in the intervals [0, 7]{sup o}, [55, 111]{sup o}, and [175, 180]{sup o} ([85, 99]{sup o}) at the one (two) sigma confidence level.

  13. Predictors of Severe Acute and Late Toxicities in Patients With Localized Head-and-Neck Cancer Treated With Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Francois; Fortin, Andre; Wang, Chang Shu; Liu, Geoffrey

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: Radiation therapy (RT) causes acute and late toxicities that affect various organs and functions. In a large cohort of patients treated with RT for localized head and neck cancer (HNC), we prospectively assessed the occurrence of RT-induced acute and late toxicities and identified characteristics that predicted these toxicities. Methods and Materials: We conducted a randomized trial among 540 patients treated with RT for localized HNC to assess whether vitamin E supplementation could improve disease outcomes. Adverse effects of RT were assessed using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Acute Radiation Morbidity Criteria during RT and one month after RT, and the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Late Radiation Morbidity Scoring Scheme at six and 12 months after RT. The most severe adverse effect among the organs/tissues was selected as an overall measure of either acute or late toxicity. Grade 3 and 4 toxicities were considered as severe. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify all independent predictors (p < 0.05) of acute or late toxicity and to estimate odds ratios (OR) for severe toxicity with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Grade 3 or 4 toxicity was observed in 23% and 4% of patients, respectively, for acute and late toxicity. Four independent predictors of severe acute toxicity were identified: sex (female vs. male: OR = 1.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.80), Karnofsky Performance Status (OR = 0.67 for a 10-point increment, 95% CI: 0.52-0.88), body mass index (above 25 vs. below: OR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.22-2.90), TNM stage (Stage II vs. I: OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.25-2.92). Two independent predictors were found for severe late toxicity: female sex (OR = 3.96, 95% CI: 1.41-11.08) and weight loss during RT (OR = 1.26 for a 1 kg increment, 95% CI: 1.12-1.41). Conclusions: Knowledge of these predictors easily collected in a clinical setting could help

  14. Treatment of Five or More Brain Metastases With Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunter, Grant K.; Suh, John H.; Reuther, Alwyn M.; Vogelbaum, Michael A.; Barnett, Gene H.; Angelov, Lilyana; Weil, Robert J.; Neyman, Gennady; Chao, Samuel T.

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: To examine the outcomes of patients with five or more brain metastases treated in a single session with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with brain metastases treated with SRS to five or more lesions in a single session were reviewed. Primary disease type, number of lesions, Karnofsky performance score (KPS) at SRS, and status of primary and systemic disease at SRS were included. Patients were treated using dosing as defined by Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Protocol 90-05, with adjustments for critical structures. We defined prior whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) as WBRT completed >1 month before SRS and concurrent WBRT as WBRT completed within 1 month before or after SRS. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to determine which patient and treatment factors predicted overall survival (OS). Results: The median OS after SRS was 7.5 months. The median KPS was 80 (range, 60-100). A KPS of {>=}80 significantly influenced OS (median OS, 4.8 months for KPS {<=}70 vs. 8.8 months for KPS {>=}80, p = 0.0097). The number of lesions treated did not significantly influence OS (median OS, 6.6 months for eight or fewer lesions vs. 9.9 months for more than eight, p = nonsignificant). Primary site histology did not significantly influence median OS. On multivariate Cox modeling, KPS and prior WBRT significantly predicted for OS. Whole-brain radiotherapy before SRS compared with concurrent WBRT significantly influenced survival, with a risk ratio of 0.423 (95% confidence interval 0.191-0.936, p = 0.0338). No significant differences were observed when no WBRT was compared with concurrent WBRT or when the no WBRT group was compared with prior WBRT. A KPS of {<=}70 predicted for poorer outcomes, with a risk ratio of 2.164 (95% confidence interval 1.157-4.049, p = 0.0157). Conclusions: Stereotactic radiosurgery to five or more brain lesions is an effective treatment option for patients with

  15. Temporal Nodal Regression and Regional Control After Primary Radiation Therapy for N2-N3 Head-and-Neck Cancer Stratified by HPV Status

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Shao Hui; O'Sullivan, Brian; Ringash, Jolie; Hope, Andrew; Gilbert, Ralph; Irish, Jonathan; Perez-Ordonez, Bayardo; Weinreb, Ilan; Waldron, John

    2013-12-01

    Purpose: To compare the temporal lymph node (LN) regression and regional control (RC) after primary chemoradiation therapy/radiation therapy in human papillomavirus-related [HPV(+)] versus human papillomavirus-unrelated [HPV(?)] head-and-neck cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: All cases of N2-N3 HNC treated with radiation therapy/chemoradiation therapy between 2003 and 2009 were reviewed. Human papillomavirus status was ascertained by p16 staining on all available oropharyngeal cancers. Larynx/hypopharynx cancers were considered HPV(?). Initial radiologic complete nodal response (CR) (?1.0 cm 8-12 weeks after treatment), ultimate LN resolution, and RC were compared between HPV(+) and HPV(?) HNC. Multivariate analysis identified outcome predictors. Results: A total of 257 HPV(+) and 236 HPV(?) HNCs were identified. The initial LN size was larger (mean, 2.9 cm vs 2.5 cm; P<.01) with a higher proportion of cystic LNs (38% vs 6%, P<.01) in HPV(+) versus HPV(?) HNC. CR was achieved is 125 HPV(+) HNCs (49%) and 129 HPV(?) HNCs (55%) (P=.18). The mean post treatment largest LN was 36% of the original size in the HPV(+) group and 41% in the HPV(?) group (P<.01). The actuarial LN resolution was similar in the HPV(+) and HPV(?) groups at 12 weeks (42% and 43%, respectively), but it was higher in the HPV(+) group than in the HPV(?) group at 36 weeks (90% vs 77%, P<.01). The median follow-up period was 3.6 years. The 3-year RC rate was higher in the HPV(?) CR cases versus non-CR cases (92% vs 63%, P<.01) but was not different in the HPV(+) CR cases versus non-CR cases (98% vs 92%, P=.14). On multivariate analysis, HPV(+) status predicted ultimate LN resolution (odds ratio, 1.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.7]; P<.01) and RC (hazard ratio, 0.3 [95% confidence interval 0.2-0.6]; P<.01). Conclusions: HPV(+) LNs involute more quickly than HPV(?) LNs but undergo a more prolonged process to eventual CR beyond the time of initial assessment at 8 to 12 weeks after treatment. Post

  16. Outcomes for Spine Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and an Analysis of Predictors of Local Recurrence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bishop, Andrew J.; Tao, Randa; Rebueno, Neal C.; Christensen, Eva N.; Allen, Pamela K.; Wang, Xin A.; Amini, Behrang; Tannir, Nizar M.; Tatsui, Claudio E.; Rhines, Laurence D.; Li, Jing; Chang, Eric L.; Brown, Paul D.; Ghia, Amol J.

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To investigate local control, survival outcomes, and predictors of local relapse for patients treated with spine stereotactic body radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 332 spinal metastases consecutively treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy between 2002 and 2012. The median follow-up for all living patients was 33 months (range, 0-111 months). Endpoints were overall survival and local control (LC); recurrences were classified as either in-field or marginal. Results: The 1-year actuarial LC and overall survival rates were 88% and 64%, respectively. Patients with local relapses had poorer dosimetric coverage of the gross tumor volume (GTV) compared with patients without recurrence (minimum dose [Dmin] biologically equivalent dose [BED] 23.9 vs 35.1 Gy, P<.001; D98 BED 41.8 vs 48.1 Gy, P=.001; D95 BED 47.2 vs 50.5 Gy, P=.004). Furthermore, patients with marginal recurrences had poorer prescription coverage of the GTV (86% vs 93%, P=.01) compared with those with in-field recurrences, potentially because of more upfront spinal canal disease (78% vs 24%, P=.001). Using a Cox regression univariate analysis, patients with a GTV BED Dmin ≥33.4 Gy (median dose) (equivalent to 14 Gy in 1 fraction) had a significantly higher 1-year LC rate (94% vs 80%, P=.001) compared with patients with a lower GTV BED Dmin; this factor was the only significant variable on multivariate Cox analysis associated with LC (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.60) and also was the only variable significant in a separate competing risk multivariate model (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.62). Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy offers durable control for spinal metastases, but there is a subset of patients that recur locally. Patients with local relapse had significantly poorer tumor coverage, which was likely attributable to treatment planning directives that prioritized the

  17. Measurement of the CP-violating phase βsJ/ψΦ in Bs0→J/ψΦ decays with the CDF II detector

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Aaltonen, T.; Álvarez González, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; et al

    2012-04-23

    We present a measurement of the CP-violating parameter βsJ/ψΦ using approximately 6500 B0s→J/ψΦ decays reconstructed with the CDF II detector in a sample of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb⁻¹ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. We find the CP-violating phase to be within the range βsJ/ψΦϵ [0.02,0.52]∪[1.08,1.55] at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential S-wavemore » contribution to the B0s→J/ψK⁺K⁻ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval 1.009sJ/ψΦ, we find the B0s decay width difference to be ΔΓs=0.075±0.035(stat)±0.006(syst) ps⁻¹. We also present the most precise measurements of the B0s mean lifetime τ(B0s)=1.529±0.025(stat)±0.012(syst) ps, the polarization fractions |A0(0)|²=0.524±0.013(stat)±0.015(syst) and |A II (0)|²=0.231±0.014(stat)±0.015(syst), as well as the strong phase δ⊥=2.95±0.64(stat)±0.07(syst) rad. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.« less

  18. PASSBY(with FitToDB)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-08-28

    The PASSBY program is used to operate the Sensor for Measurement and analysis of radiation transients (SMART). The unit records triggers an "Event" upon detecting an increase in count rate recorded with a sodium iodide gamma-ray spectrometer. Background radiation levels are monitored continuously and background spectra are updated at 60 second intervals if no radiation sources are present other than those in the natural background. the system accepts input from an optional neutron counter. Inmore » addition to spectral information, the location, determined with an internal GPS and the compass bearing are reported via either an RF modem or a serial cable. The gamma-ray spectra are analyzed to determine which isotopes are present and confidence levels are assigned. The analysis is performed using the FitToDB algorithm, is described as follows. The automatic identification algorithm FitToDB algorithm enables the automatic identification of gamma-ry emitting isotopes in shielded sources. FitToDB can identify combinations of up to ten isotopes, each of which may be viewed through different shielding materials. The algorithm runs rapidly (within about 3 seconds on a 100 MHz Pentium-class processor), and can be compiled to run both DOS and Windows operating systems. Computational speed and system interoperability issues are addressed by the approach of interpolating spectra from an existing database of computed templates rather than performing detector response functions calculations within the algorithm.« less

  19. Assessment of G3(MP2)//B3 theory including a pseudopotential for molecules containing first-, second-, and third-row representative elements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocha, Carlos Murilo Romero; Morgon, Nelson Henrique; Custodio, Rogrio; Pereira, Douglas Henrique; Departamento de Cincias Exatas e Biotecnolgicas, Universidade Federal do Tocantins, Campus de Gurupi, 77410-530 Gurupi, Tocantins

    2013-11-14

    G3(MP2)//B3 theory was modified to incorporate compact effective potential (CEP) pseudopotentials, providing a theoretical alternative referred to as G3(MP2)//B3-CEP for calculations involving first-, second-, and third-row representative elements. The G3/05 test set was used as a standard to evaluate the accuracy of the calculated properties. G3(MP2)//B3-CEP theory was applied to the study of 247 standard enthalpies of formation, 104 ionization energies, 63 electron affinities, 10 proton affinities, and 22 atomization energies, comprising 446 experimental energies. The mean absolute deviations compared with the experimental data for all thermochemical results presented an accuracy of 1.4 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3 and 1.6 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3-CEP. Approximately 75% and 70% of the calculated properties are found with accuracy between 2 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3 and G3(MP2)//B3-CEP, respectively. Considering a confidence interval of 95%, the results may oscillate between 4.2 kcal mol{sup ?1} and 4.6 kcal mol{sup ?1}, respectively. The overall statistical behavior indicates that the calculations using pseudopotential present similar behavior with the all-electron theory. Of equal importance to the accuracy is the CPU time, which was reduced by between 10% and 40%.

  20. Hyperfractionated Accelerated Radiotherapy (HART) for Anaplastic Thyroid Carcinoma: Toxicity and Survival Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dandekar, Prasad; Rhys-Evans, Peter; Harrington, Kevin; Nutting, Christopher; Newbold, Kate

    2009-06-01

    Purpose: Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) is one of the most aggressive cancers, and the current protocol of hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy was initiated to improve survival while limiting toxicities. Methods and Materials: All patients with ATC from 1991 to 2002 were accrued and received megavoltage radiotherapy from the mastoid processes to the carina up to 60 Gy in twice-daily fractions of 1.8 and 2 Gy, 6 hours apart. Results: Thirty-one patients were accrued with a median age of 69 years, and 55% were women. Debulking was performed in 26%, and total thyroidectomy, in 6%, whereas 68% received radical radiotherapy alone. Local control data were available for 27 patients: 22% had a complete response, 26% had a partial response, 15% showed progressive disease, and 37% showed static disease. Median overall survival for all 31 patients was 70 days (95% confidence interval, 40-99). There was no significant difference in median survival between patients younger (70 days) and older than 70 years (42 days), between men (70 days) and women (49days), and between patients receiving postoperative radiotherapy (77 days) and radical radiotherapy alone (35 days). Grade III or higher skin erythema was seen in 56% patients; desquamation in 21%; dysphagia in 74%; and esophagitis in 79%. Conclusion: The current protocol failed to offer a significant survival benefit, was associated with severe toxicities, and thus was discontinued. There is a suggestion that younger patients with operable disease have longer survival, but this would require a larger study to confirm it.

  1. Total Gross Tumor Volume Is an Independent Prognostic Factor in Patients Treated With Selective Nodal Irradiation for Stage I to III Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reymen, Bart; Van Loon, Judith; Baardwijk, Angela van; Wanders, Rinus; Borger, Jacques; Dingemans, Anne-Marie C.; Bootsma, Gerben; Pitz, Cordula; Lunde, Ragnar; Geraedts, Wiel; Lambin, Philippe; De Ruysscher, Dirk; University Hospital Leuven/ KU Leuven, Leuven

    2013-04-01

    Purpose: In non-small cell lung cancer, gross tumor volume (GTV) influences survival more than other risk factors. This could also apply to small cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: Analysis of our prospective database with stage I to III SCLC patients referred for concurrent chemo radiation therapy. Standard treatment was 45 Gy in 1.5-Gy fractions twice daily concurrently with carboplatin-etoposide, followed by prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in case of non-progression. Only fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)-positive or pathologically proven nodal sites were included in the target volume. Total GTV consisted of post chemotherapy tumor volume and pre chemotherapy nodal volume. Survival was calculated from diagnosis (Kaplan-Meier ). Results: A total of 119 patients were included between May 2004 and June 2009. Median total GTV was 93 ± 152 cc (7.5-895 cc). Isolated elective nodal failure occurred in 2 patients (1.7%). Median follow-up was 38 months, median overall survival 20 months (95% confidence interval = 17.8-22.1 months), and 2-year survival 38.4%. In multivariate analysis, only total GTV (P=.026) and performance status (P=.016) significantly influenced survival. Conclusions: In this series of stage I to III small cell lung cancer patients treated with FDG-PET-based selective nodal irradiation total GTV is an independent risk factor for survival.

  2. Preconception maternal polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations and the secondary sex ratio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, Kira C. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Department of Epidemiology, 1518 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30322 (United States); Jackson, Leila W. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, WG37, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, 10900 Euclid Avenue Cleveland, OH 44106-4945 (United States); Lynch, Courtney D. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Kostyniak, Paul J. [Toxicology Research Center, 134 Cary Hall, University at Buffalo, State of New York, 3434 Main St., Buffalo, NY 14214-3000 (United States); Buck Louis, Germaine M. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States)]. E-mail: louisg@mail.nih.gov

    2007-01-15

    The secondary sex ratio is the ratio of male to female live births and historically has ranged from 102 to 106 males to 100 females. Temporal declines have been reported in many countries prompting authors to hypothesize an environmental etiology. Blood specimens were obtained from 99 women aged 24-34 prior to attempting pregnancy and quantified for 76 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners using dual column gas chromatography with electron capture detection. Women were prospectively followed until pregnancy or 12 cycles of trying. The odds of a male birth for three PCB groupings (total, estrogenic, anti-estrogenic) controlling for maternal characteristics were estimated using logistic regression. Among the 50 women with live births and PCB data, 26 female and 24 male infants were born (ratio 0.92). After adjusting for age and body mass index, odds of a male birth were elevated among women in the second (OR=1.29) and third (OR=1.48) tertiles of estrogenic PCBs; odds (OR=0.70) were reduced among women in the highest tertile of anti-estrogenic PCBs. All confidence intervals included one. The direction of the odds ratios in this preliminary study varied by PCB groupings, supporting the need to study specific PCB patterns when assessing environmental influences on the secondary sex ratio.

  3. Methylene chloride exposure and birthweight in Monroe County, New York

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bell, B.P.; Franks, P.; Hildreth, N.; Melius, J. )

    1991-06-01

    This study examined the relationship between birthweight and exposure to emissions of methylene chloride (DCM) from manufacturing processes of the Eastman Kodak Company at Kodak Park in Rochester, Monroe County, New York. County census tracts were categorized as exposed to high, moderate, low or no DCM based on the Kodak Air Monitoring Program (KAMP) model, a theoretical dispersion model of DCM developed by Eastman Kodak Company. Birthweight and information on variables known to influence birthweight were obtained from 91,302 birth certificates of white singleton births to Monroe County residents from 1976 to 1987. No significant adverse effects of exposure to DCM on birthweight were found. Adjusted birthweight in high exposure census tracts was 18.7 g less than in areas with no exposure (95% confidence interval for the difference between high and no exposure - 51.6, 14.2 g). Problems inherent in the method of estimation of exposure, which may decrease power or bias the results, are discussed. Better methods to estimate exposure to emissions from multiple industrial point sources are needed.

  4. Impact of Boost Radiation in the Treatment of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Population-Based Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario ; Narod, Steven A.; Womens College Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario ; Nofech-Moses, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario ; Thiruchelvam, Deva; Saskin, Refik; Taylor, Carole; Tuck, Alan; Youngson, Bruce; Miller, Naomi; Done, Susan J.; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Henderson General Hospital, 711 Concession Street, Hamilton, Ontario ; Jani, Prashant A.; Regional Health Sciences Centre, Thunder Bay, Ontario ; Bonin, Michel; Metcalfe, Stephanie; Paszat, Lawrence; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To report the outcomes of a population of women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation and to evaluate the independent effect of boost radiation on the development of local recurrence. Methods and Materials: All women diagnosed with DCIS and treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy in Ontario from 1994 to 2003 were identified. Treatments and outcomes were identified through administrative databases and validated by chart review. The impact of boost radiation on the development of local recurrence was determined using survival analyses. Results: We identified 1895 cases of DCIS that were treated by breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy; 561 patients received boost radiation. The cumulative 10-year rate of local recurrence was 13% for women who received boost radiation and 12% for those who did not (P=.3). The 10-year local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) rate among women who did and who did not receive boost radiation was 88% and 87%, respectively (P=.27), 94% and 93% for invasive LRFS (P=.58), and was 95% and 93% for DCIS LRFS (P=.31). On multivariable analyses, boost radiation was not associated with a lower risk of local recurrence (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.59-1.15) (P=.25). Conclusions: Among a population of women treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation for DCIS, additional (boost) radiation was not associated with a lower risk of local or invasive recurrence.

  5. Prevalence and Treatment Management of Oropharyngeal Candidiasis in Cancer Patients: Results of the French Candidoscope Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gligorov, Joseph; Bastit, Laurent; Gervais, Honorine; Henni, Mehdi; Kahila, Widad; Lepille, Daniel; Luporsi, Elisabeth; Sasso, Giuseppe; Varette, Charles; Azria, David

    2011-06-01

    Purpose: The aim of this pharmaco-epidemiological study was to evaluate the prevalence of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC) in cancer patients treated with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Signs and symptoms of OPC were noted for all patients. Antifungal therapeutic management was recorded in OPC patients. Patients receiving local antifungal treatments were monitored until the end of treatment. Results: Enrolled in the study were 2,042 patients with solid tumor and/or lymphoma treated with chemotherapy and/or another systemic cancer treatment and/or radiotherapy. The overall prevalence of OPC was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 8.4%-11.0%]in this population. It was most frequent in patients treated with combined chemoradiotherapy (22.0%) or with more than two cytotoxic agents (16.9%). Local antifungal treatments were prescribed in 75.0% of OPC patients as recommended by guidelines. The compliance to treatment was higher in patients receiving once-daily miconazole mucoadhesive buccal tablet (MBT; 88.2%) than in those treated with several daily mouthwashes of amphotericin B (40%) or nystatin (18.8%). Conclusion: OPC prevalence in treated cancer patients was high. Local treatments were usually prescribed as per guidelines. Compliance to local treatments was better with once-daily drugs.

  6. Search for the decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lees, J. P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Palano, A.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Brown, D. N.; Kerth, L. T.; Kolomensky, Yu. G.; Lynch, G.; Koch, H.; Schroeder, T.; Asgeirsson, D. J.; Hearty, C.; Mattison, T. S.; McKenna, J. A.; So, R. Y.; Khan, A.; Blinov, V. E.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Druzhinin, V. P.; Golubev, V. B.; Kravchenko, E. A.; Onuchin, A. P.; Serednyakov, S. I.; Skovpen, Yu. I.; Solodov, E. P.; Todyshev, K. Yu.; Yushkov, A. N.; Bondioli, M.; Kirkby, D.; Lankford, A. J.; Mandelkern, M.; Atmacan, H.; Gary, J. W.; Liu, F.; Long, O.; Mullin, E.; Vitug, G. M.; Campagnari, C.; Hong, T. M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Richman, J. D.; West, C. A.; Eisner, A. M.; Kroseberg, J.; Lockman, W. S.; Martinez, A. J.; Schumm, B. A.; Seiden, A.; Chao, D. S.; Cheng, C. H.; Echenard, B.; Flood, K. T.; Hitlin, D. G.; Ongmongkolkul, P.; Porter, F. C.; Rakitin, A. Y.; Andreassen, R.; Huard, Z.; Meadows, B. T.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Sun, L.; Bloom, P. C.; Ford, W. T.; Gaz, A.; Nauenberg, U.; Smith, J. G.; Wagner, S. R.; Ayad, R.; Toki, W. H.; Spaan, B.; Schubert, K. R.; Schwierz, R.; Bernard, D.; Verderi, M.; Clark, P. J.; Playfer, S.; Bettoni, D.; Bozzi, C.; Calabrese, R.; Cibinetto, G.; Fioravanti, E.; Garzia, I.; Luppi, E.; Munerato, M.; Piemontese, L.; Santoro, V.; Baldini-Ferroli, R.; Calcaterra, A.; de Sangro, R.; Finocchiaro, G.; Patteri, P.; Peruzzi, I. M.; Piccolo, M.; Rama, M.; Zallo, A.; Contri, R.; Guido, E.; Lo Vetere, M.; Monge, M. R.; Passaggio, S.; Patrignani, C.; Robutti, E.; Bhuyan, B.; Prasad, V.; Lee, C. L.; Morii, M.; Edwards, A. J.; Adametz, A.; Uwer, U.; Lacker, H. M.; Lueck, T.; Dauncey, P. D.; Mallik, U.; Chen, C.; Cochran, J.; Meyer, W. T.; Prell, S.; Rubin, A. E.; Gritsan, A. V.; Guo, Z. J.; Arnaud, N.; Davier, M.; Derkach, D.; Grosdidier, G.; Le Diberder, F.; Lutz, A. M.; Malaescu, B.; Roudeau, P.; Schune, M. H.; Stocchi, A.; Wormser, G.; Lange, D. J.; Wright, D. M.; Chavez, C. A.; Coleman, J. P.; Fry, J. R.; Gabathuler, E.; Hutchcroft, D. E.; Payne, D. J.; Touramanis, C.; Bevan, A. J.; Di Lodovico, F.; Sacco, R.; Sigamani, M.; Cowan, G.; Brown, D. N.; Davis, C. L.; Denig, A. G.; Fritsch, M.; Gradl, W.; Griessinger, K.; Hafner, A.; Prencipe, E.; Barlow, R. J.; Jackson, G.; Lafferty, G. D.; Behn, E.; Cenci, R.; Hamilton, B.; Jawahery, A.; Roberts, D. A.; Dallapiccola, C.; Cowan, R.; Dujmic, D.; Sciolla, G.; Cheaib, R.; Lindemann, D.; Patel, P. M.; Robertson, S. H.; Biassoni, P.; Neri, N.; Palombo, F.; Stracka, S.; Cremaldi, L.; Godang, R.; Kroeger, R.; Sonnek, P.; Summers, D. J.; Nguyen, X.; Simard, M.; Taras, P.; De Nardo, G.; Monorchio, D.; Onorato, G.; Sciacca, C.; Martinelli, M.; Raven, G.; Jessop, C. P.; LoSecco, J. M.; Wang, W. F.; Honscheid, K.; Kass, R.; Brau, J.; Frey, R.; Sinev, N. B.; Strom, D.; Torrence, E.; Feltresi, E.; Gagliardi, N.; Margoni, M.; Morandin, M.; Posocco, M.; Rotondo, M.; Simi, G.; Simonetto, F.; Stroili, R.; Akar, S.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bomben, M.; Bonneaud, G. R.; Briand, H.; Calderini, G.; Chauveau, J.; Hamon, O.; Leruste, Ph.; Marchiori, G.; Ocariz, J.; Sitt, S.; Biasini, M.; Manoni, E.; Pacetti, S.; Rossi, A.; Angelini, C.; Batignani, G.; Bettarini, S.; Carpinelli, M.; Casarosa, G.; Cervelli, A.; Forti, F.; Giorgi, M. A.; Lusiani, A.; Oberhof, B.; Paoloni, E.; Perez, A.; Rizzo, G.; Walsh, J. J.; Lopes Pegna, D.; Olsen, J.; Smith, A. J. S.; Telnov, A. V.; Anulli, F.; Faccini, R.; Ferrarotto, F.; Ferroni, F.; Gaspero, M.; Li Gioi, L.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Piredda, G.; Bünger, C.; Grünberg, O.; Hartmann, T.; Leddig, T.; Schröder, H.; Voss, C.; Waldi, R.; Adye, T.; Olaiya, E. O.; Wilson, F. F.; Emery, S.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Vasseur, G.; Yèche, Ch.; Aston, D.; Bard, D. J.; Bartoldus, R.; Benitez, J. F.; Cartaro, C.; Convery, M. R.; Dorfan, J.; Dubois-Felsmann, G. P.; Dunwoodie, W.; Ebert, M.; Field, R. C.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Fulsom, B. G.; Gabareen, A. M.; Graham, M. T.; Grenier, P.; Hast, C.; Innes, W. R.; Kelsey, M. H.; Kim, P.; Kocian, M. L.; Leith, D. W. G. S.; Lewis, P.; Lindquist, B.; Luitz, S.; Luth, V.; Lynch, H. L.; MacFarlane, D. B.; Muller, D. R.; Neal, H.; Nelson, S.; Perl, M.; Pulliam, T.; Ratcliff, B. N.; Roodman, A.; Salnikov, A. A.; Schindler, R. H.; Snyder, A.; Su, D.; Sullivan, M. K.; Va’vra, J.; Wagner, A. P.; Wisniewski, W. J.; Wittgen, M.; Wright, D. H.; Wulsin, H. W.; Young, C. C.; Ziegler, V.; Park, W.; Purohit, M. V.; White, R. M.; Wilson, J. R.; Randle-Conde, A.; Sekula, S. J.; Bellis, M.; Burchat, P. R.; Miyashita, T. S.; Puccio, E. M. T.; Alam, M. S.; Ernst, J. A.; Gorodeisky, R.; Guttman, N.; Peimer, D. R.; Soffer, A.; Lund, P.; Spanier, S. M.; Ritchie, J. L.; Ruland, A. M.; Schwitters, R. F.; Wray, B. C.; Izen, J. M.; Lou, X. C.; Bianchi, F.; Gamba, D.; Zambito, S.; Lanceri, L.; Vitale, L.; Martinez-Vidal, F.; Oyanguren, A.; Ahmed, H.; Albert, J.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Choi, H. H. F.; King, G. J.; Kowalewski, R.; Lewczuk, M. J.; Nugent, I. M.; Roney, J. M.; Sobie, R. J.; Tasneem, N.; Gershon, T. J.; Harrison, P. F.; Latham, T. E.; Band, H. R.; Dasu, S.; Pan, Y.; Prepost, R.; Wu, S. L.

    2012-08-01

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D0→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ in continuum e⁺e⁻→cc¯ events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb⁻¹. These decays are highly Glashow–Iliopoulos–Maiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻ channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman–Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: B(D⁰→e⁺e⁻)<1.7×10⁻⁷, B(D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻) within [0.6,8.1]×10⁻⁷, and B(D⁰→e±μ)<3.3×10⁻⁷.

  7. Search for the decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lees, J. P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Palano, A.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Brown, D. N.; Kerth, L. T.; et al

    2012-08-01

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D0→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓ in continuum e⁺e⁻→cc¯ events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb⁻¹. These decays are highly Glashow–Iliopoulos–Maiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻ channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman–Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions:more » B(D⁰→e⁺e⁻)<1.7×10⁻⁷, B(D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻) within [0.6,8.1]×10⁻⁷, and B(D⁰→e±μ∓)<3.3×10⁻⁷.« less

  8. Receipt of Guideline-Concordant Treatment in Elderly Prostate Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Ronald C., E-mail: Ronald_chen@med.unc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Carpenter, William R. [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Hendrix, Laura H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Bainbridge, John [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Wang, Andrew Z. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Nielsen, Matthew E. [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Department of Urology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); and others

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To examine the proportion of elderly prostate cancer patients receiving guideline-concordant treatment, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Methods and Materials: A total of 29,001 men diagnosed in 2004-2007 with localized prostate cancer, aged 66 to 79 years, were included. We characterized the proportion of men who received treatment concordant with the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, stratified by risk group and age. Logistic regression was used to examine covariates associated with receipt of guideline-concordant management. Results: Guideline concordance was 79%-89% for patients with low- or intermediate-risk disease. Among high-risk patients, 66.6% of those aged 66-69 years received guideline-concordant management, compared with 51.9% of those aged 75-79 years. Discordance was mainly due to conservative managementno treatment or hormone therapy alone. Among the subgroup of patients aged ?76 years with no measured comorbidity, findings were similar. On multivariable analysis, older age (75-79 vs 66-69 years, odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.50-0.57) was associated with a lower likelihood of guideline concordance for high-risk prostate cancer, but comorbidity was not. Conclusions: There is undertreatment of elderly but healthy patients with high-risk prostate cancer, the most aggressive form of this disease.

  9. Search for Stopped Gluinos in pp collisions at sqrt s = 7 TeV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khachatryan, Vardan; et al.

    2011-01-01

    The results of the first search for long-lived gluinos produced in 7 TeV pp collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider are presented. The search looks for evidence of long-lived particles that stop in the CMS detector and decay in the quiescent periods between beam crossings. In a dataset with a peak instantaneous luminosity of 10^{32} cm^{-2} s^{-1}, an integrated luminosity of 10 inverse picobarns, and a search interval corresponding to 62 hours of LHC operation, no significant excess above background was observed. Limits at the 95% confidence level on gluino pair production over 13 orders of magnitude of gluino lifetime are set. For a mass difference between the gluino and the neutralino greater than 100 GeV/c^2, and assuming a branching ratio for gluino to gluon+neutralino of 100%, gluinos of mass less than 370 GeV/c^2 are excluded for lifetimes from 10 microseconds to 1000 s.

  10. A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andres, Robert Joseph; Boden, Thomas A; Breon, F.-M.; Erickson, D; Gregg, J. S.; Jacobson, Andrew; Marland, Gregg; Miller, J.; Oda, T; Raupach, Michael; Rayner, P; Treanton, K.

    2012-01-01

    This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores 5 our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e. maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions 10 from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10% uncertainty (95% 15 confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. The information discussed in this manuscript synthesizes global, regional and national fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, their distributions, their transport, and the associated uncertainties.

  11. Search for the Decay Modes D0 to e+ e-, D0 to mu+ mu-, and D0 to e+/- mu+/-

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lees, J. P.

    2012-08-03

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}, D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}, and D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup {+-}}{mu}{sup {-+}} in continuum e{sup +}e{sup -} {yields} c{bar c} events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb{sup -1}. These decays are highly GIM suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the Standard Model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman-Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}) < 1.7 x 10{sup -7}, {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}) within [0.6, 8.1] x 10{sup -7}, and {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup {+-}}{mu}{sup {-+}}) < 3.3 x 10{sup -7}.

  12. Criticality calculations with MCNP{sup TM}: A primer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendius, P.W.; Harmon, C.D. II; Busch, R.D.; Briesmeister, J.F.; Forster, R.A.

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this Primer is to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst to perform computer calculations using the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Because of the closure of many experimental facilities, reliance on computer simulation is increasing. Often the analyst has little experience with specific codes available at his/her facility. This Primer helps the analyst understand and use the MCNP Monte Carlo code for nuclear criticality analyses. It assumes no knowledge of or particular experience with Monte Carlo codes in general or with MCNP in particular. The document begins with a Quickstart chapter that introduces the basic concepts of using MCNP. The following chapters expand on those ideas, presenting a range of problems from simple cylinders to 3-dimensional lattices for calculating keff confidence intervals. Input files and results for all problems are included. The Primer can be used alone, but its best use is in conjunction with the MCNP4A manual. After completing the Primer, a criticality analyst should be capable of performing and understanding a majority of the calculations that will arise in the field of nuclear criticality safety.

  13. Effects of air pollution on children's respiratory health in three Chinese cities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Z.; Chapman, R.S.; Tian, Q.; Chen, Y.; Lioy, P.J.; Zhang, J.

    2000-04-01

    During the winter of 1988--1989, parents of 2,789 elementary-school students completed standardized questionnaires. The students were 5--14 y of age and were from three urban districts and one suburban district of three large Chinese cities. The 4-y average ambient levels of total suspended particles in the three cities differed greatly during the period 1985--1988: Lanzhou, 1,067 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; urban Wuhan, 406 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; Guangzhou, 296 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; and suburban Wuhan, 191 {micro}g/m{sup 3}. The authors constructed unconditional logistic-regression models to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for prevalences of several respiratory symptoms and illnesses, adjusted for district, use of coal in the home, and parental smoking status. There was a positive and significant association between total suspended particle levels and the adjusted odds ratios for couch, phlegm, hospitalization for diseases, and pneumonia. This association was derived from only the 1,784 urban children and, therefore, the authors were unable to extrapolate it to the suburban children. The results also indicated that parental smoking status was associated with cough and phlegm, and use of coal in the home was associated only with cough prevalence.

  14. Association of indoor nitrogen dioxide with respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function in children

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neas, L.M.; Dockery, D.W.; Ware, J.H.; Spengler, J.D.; Speizer, F.E.; Ferris, B.G. Jr. )

    1991-07-15

    The effect of indoor nitrogen dioxide on the cumulative incidence of respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function level was studied in a cohort of 1,567 white children aged 7-11 years examined in six US cities from 1983 through 1988. Week-long measurements of nitrogen dioxide were obtained at three indoor locations over 2 consecutive weeks in both the winter and the summer months. The household annual average nitrogen dioxide concentration was modeled as a continuous variable and as four ordered categories. Multiple logistic regression analysis of symptom reports from a questionnaire administered after indoor monitoring showed that a 15-ppb increase in the household annual nitrogen dioxide mean was associated with an increased cumulative incidence of lower respiratory symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (95% Cl) 1.1-1.7). The response variable indicated the report of one or more of the following symptoms: attacks of shortness of breath with wheeze, chronic wheeze, chronic cough, chronic phlegm, or bronchitis. Girls showed a stronger association (OR = 1.7, 95% Cl 1.3-2.2) than did boys (OR = 1.2, 95% Cl 0.9-1.5). An analysis of pulmonary function measurements showed no consistent effect of nitrogen dioxide. These results are consistent with earlier reports based on categorical indicators of household nitrogen dioxide sources and provide a more specific association with nitrogen dioxide as measured in children's homes.

  15. Health effects of acid aerosols on North American children: Respiratory symptoms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dockery, D.W. |; Cunningham, J.; Damokosh, A.I.

    1996-05-01

    We examined the respiratory health effects of exposure to acidic air pollution among 13,369 white children 8 to 12 years old from 24 communities in the United States and Canada between 1988 and 1991. Each child`s parent or guardian completed a questionnaire. Air quality and meteorology were measured in each community for a 1-year period. We used a two-stage logistic regression model to analyze the data, adjusting for the period confounding effects of sex, history of allergies, parental asthma, parental education, and current smoking in the home. Children living in the community with the highest levels of particle strong acidity were significantly more likely [odds ratio (OR) = 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-2.48] to report at least one episode of bronchitis in the past year compared to children living in the least-polluted community. Fine particulate sulfate was also associated with higher reporting of bronchitis (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.12-2.42). No other respiratory symptoms were significantly higher in association with any of the air pollutants of interest. No sensitive subgroups were identified. Reported bronchitis, but neither asthma, wheeze, cough, nor phlegm, were associated with levels of particle strong acidity for these children living in a nonurban environment. 26 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  17. Search for Violation of $CPT$ and Lorentz Invariance in ${B_s^0}$ Meson Oscillations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich

    2015-06-12

    We present the first search for CPT-violating effects in the mixing of B0s mesons using the full Run II data set with an integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb-1 of proton-antiproton collisions collected using the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We measure the CPT-violating asymmetry in the decay B0s → µ±D±s as a function of celestial direction and sidereal phase. We find no evidence for CPT-violating effects and place limits on the direction and magnitude of flavor-dependent CPTand Lorentz-invariance violating coupling coefficients. We find 95% confidence intervals of Δa⊥ < 1.2 × 10-12 GeV and (-0.8 < ΔaT - 0.396ΔaZ < 3.9) × 10-13 GeV.

  18. An evaluation of genetic heterogeneity in 145 breast-ovarian cancer families

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Narod, S.A.; Ford, D.; Devilee, P.; Barkardottir, R.B.; Lynch, H.T.; Smith, S.A.; Ponder, B.A.J.; Weber, B.L.; Garber, J.E.; Birch, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    The breast-ovary cancer-family syndrome is a dominant predisposition to cancer of the breast and ovaries which has been mapped to chromosome region 17q12-q21. The majority, but not all, of breast-ovary cancer families show linkage to this susceptibility locus, designated BRCA1. We report the results of a linkage analysis of 145 families with both breast and ovarian cancer. These families contain either a total of three or more cases of early-onset (before age 60 years) breast cancer or ovarian cancer. All families contained at least one case of ovarian cancer. Overall, an estimated 76% of the 145 families are linked to the BRCA1 locus. None of the 13 families with cases of male breast cancer appear to be linked, but it is estimated that 92% (95% confidence interval 76%-100%) of families with no male breast cancer and with two or more ovarian cancers are linked to BRCA1. These data suggest that the breast-ovarian cancer-family syndrome is genetically heterogeneous. However, the large majority of families with early-onset breast cancer and with two or more cases of ovarian cancer are likely to be due to BRCA1 mutations. 39 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Estimates of the gene frequency of BRCA1 and its contribution to breast and ovarian cancer incidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ford, D.; Easton, D.F.; Peto, J.

    1995-12-01

    The majority of multiple-case families that segregate both breast and ovarian cancer in a dominant fashion are due to mutations in the BRCA1 gene on chromosome 17q. In this paper, we have combined penetrance estimates for BRCA1 with the results of two population-based genetic epidemiological studies to estimate the gene frequency of BRCA1. On the assumption that the excess risk of ovarian cancer in first degree relatives of breast cancer patients and the breast cancer excess in relatives of ovarian cancer patients are both entirely accounted for by BRCA1, we estimate that the BRCA1 gene frequency is 0.0006 (95% confidence interval [0.0002-0.001]) and that the proportion of breast cancer cases in the general population due to BRCA1 is 5.3% below age 40 years, 2.2% between ages 40 and 49 years, and 1.1% between ages 50 and 70 years. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer are 5.7%, 4.6%, and 2.1%, respectively. Our results suggest that the majority of breast cancer families with less than four cases and no ovarian cancer are not due to rare highly penetrant genes such as BRCA1 but are more likely to be due either to chance or to more common genes of lower penetrance. 22 refs., 3 tabs.

  20. Analysis of In-Use Fuel Economy Shortfall Based on Voluntarily Reported MPG Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L; Goeltz, Rick; Hopson, Dr Janet L; Tworek, Elzbieta

    2007-01-01

    The usefulness of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) passenger car and light truck fuel economy estimates has been the subject of debate for the past three decades. For the labels on new vehicles and the fuel economy information given to the public, the EPA adjusts dynamometer test results downward by 10% for the city cycle and 22% for the highway cycle to better reflect real world driving conditions. These adjustment factors were developed in 1984 and their continued validity has repeatedly been questioned. In March of 2005 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and EPA's fuel economy information website, www.fueleconomy.gov, began allowing users to voluntarily share fuel economy estimates. This paper presents an initial statistical analysis of more than 3,000 estimates submitted by website users. The analysis suggests two potentially important results: (1) adjusted, combined EPA fuel economy estimates appear to be approximately unbiased estimators of the average fuel economy consumers will experience in actual driving, and (2) the EPA estimates are highly imprecise predictors of any given individual's in-use fuel economy, an approximate 95% confidence interval being +/-7 MPG. These results imply that what is needed is not less biased adjustment factors for the EPA estimates but rather more precise methods of predicting the fuel economy individual consumers will achieve in their own driving.

  1. A Direct Top-Quark Width Measurement from Lepton + Jets Events at CDF II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aaltonen, T.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J.A.; Apresyan, A.; Arisawa, T.; /Waseda U. /Dubna, JINR

    2010-08-01

    We present a measurement of the top-quark width using t{bar t} events produced in p{bar p} collisions at Fermilab's Tevatron collider and collected by the CDF II detector. In the mode where the top quark decays to a W boson and a bottom quark, we select events in which one W decays leptonically and the other hadronically (lepton + jets channel) . From a data sample corresponding to 4.3 fb{sup -1} of integrated luminosity, we identify 756 candidate events. The top-quark mass and the mass of W boson that decays hadronically are reconstructed for each event and compared with templates of different top-quark widths ({Lambda}{sub t}) and deviations from nominal jet energy scale ({Delta}{sub JES}) to perform a simultaneous fit for both parameters, where {Delta}{sub JES} is used for the in situ calibration of the jet energy scale. By applying a Feldman-Cousins approach, we establish an upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) of {Lambda}{sub t} < 7.6 GeV and a two-sided 68% CL interval of 0.3 GeV < {Lambda}{sub t} < 4.4 GeV for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c{sup 2}, which are consistant with the standard model prediction. This is the first direct measurement of {Lambda}{sub t} to set a lower limit with 68% CL.

  2. FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE SECOND SOURCE CATALOG

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nolan, P. L.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Bechtol, K.; Berenji, B.; Blandford, R. D.; Bloom, E. D.; Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Antolini, E.; Bonamente, E.; Atwood, W. B.; Belfiore, A.; Axelsson, M.; Baldini, L.; Bellazzini, R.; Ballet, J.; Bastieri, D.; Bignami, G. F. E-mail: Gino.Tosti@pg.infn.it E-mail: tburnett@u.washington.edu; and others

    2012-04-01

    We present the second catalog of high-energy {gamma}-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely {gamma}-ray-producing source classes.

  3. Implementation of passive samplers for monitoring volatile organic compounds in ground water at the Kansas City Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardner, F.G.; Korte, N.E.; Wilson-Nichols, M.J.; Baker, J.L.; Ramm, S.G.

    1998-06-01

    Passive sampling for monitoring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) has been suggested as a possible replacement to the traditional bailer method used at the Department of Energy Kansas City Plant (KCP) for routine groundwater monitoring. To compare methods, groundwater samples were collected from 19 KCP wells with VOC concentrations ranging from non-detectable to > 100,000 {micro}g/L. Analysis of the data was conducted using means and medians of multiple measurements of TCE, 1,2-DCE, 1,1-DCE and VC. All 95% confidence intervals of these VOCs overlap, providing evidence that the two methods are similar. The study also suggests that elimination of purging and decontamination of sampling equipment reduces the labor required to sample by approximately 32%. Also, because the passive method generates no waste water, there are no associated disposal costs. The results suggest evidence to continue studies and efforts to replace traditional bailer methods with passive sampling at KCP based on cost and the similarity of the methods.

  4. Materials corrosion of high temperature alloys immersed in 600C binary nitrate salt.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kruizenga, Alan Michael; Gill, David Dennis; LaFord, Marianne Elizabeth

    2013-03-01

    Thirteen high temperature alloys were immersion tested in a 60/40 binary nitrate salt. Samples were interval tested up to 3000 hours at 600%C2%B0C with air as the ullage gas. Chemical analysis of the molten salt indicated lower nitrite concentrations present in the salt, as predicted by the equilibrium equation. Corrosion rates were generally low for all alloys. Corrosion products were identified using x-ray diffraction and electron microprobe analysis. Fe-Cr based alloys tended to form mixtures of sodium and iron oxides, while Fe-Ni/Cr alloys had similar corrosion products plus oxides of nickel and chromium. Nickel based alloys primarily formed NiO, with chromium oxides near the oxide/base alloy interface. In625 exhibited similar corrosion performance in relation to previous tests, lending confidence in comparisons between past and present experiments. HA230 exhibited internal oxidation that consisted of a nickel/chromium oxide. Alloys with significant aluminum alloying tended to exhibit superior performance, due formation of a thin alumina layer. Soluble corrosion products of chromium, molybdenum, and tungsten were also formed and are thought to be a significant factor in alloy performance.

  5. Cosmetic Outcome and Seroma Formation After Breast-Conserving Surgery With Intraoperative Radiation Therapy Boost for Early Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Senthi, Sashendra; Link, Emma; Chua, Boon H.; University of Melbourne, Melbourne

    2012-10-01

    Purpose: To evaluate cosmetic outcome and its association with breast wound seroma after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) with targeted intraoperative radiation therapy (tIORT) boost for early breast cancer. Methods and Materials: An analysis of a single-arm prospective study of 55 patients with early breast cancer treated with BCS and tIORT boost followed by conventional whole breast radiation therapy (WBRT) between August 2003 and January 2006 was performed. A seroma was defined as a fluid collection at the primary tumor resection site identified clinically or radiologically. Cosmetic assessments using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer rating system were performed at baseline before BCS and 30 months after WBRT was completed. Results: Twenty-eight patients (51%) developed a seroma, with 18 patients (33%) requiring at least 1 aspiration. Tumor location was significantly associated with seroma formation (P=.001). Ten of 11 patients with an upper inner quadrant tumor developed a seroma. Excellent or good overall cosmetic outcome at 30 months was observed in 34 patients (62%, 95% confidence interval 53%-80%). Seroma formation was not associated with the overall cosmetic result (P=.54). Conclusion: BCS with tIORT boost followed by WBRT was associated with an acceptable cosmetic outcome. Seroma formation was not significantly associated with an adverse cosmetic outcome.

  6. The Impact of Preradiation Residual Disease Volume on Time to Locoregional Failure in Cutaneous Merkel Cell CarcinomaA TROG Substudy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finnigan, Renee; Hruby, George; Wratten, Chris; Keller, Jacqui; Tripcony, Lee; Dickie, Graeme; Rischin, Danny; Poulsen, Michael

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: This study evaluated the impact of margin status and gross residual disease in patients treated with chemoradiation therapy for high-risk stage I and II Merkel cell cancer (MCC). Methods and Materials: Data were pooled from 3 prospective trials in which patients were treated with 50 Gy in 25 fractions to the primary lesion and draining lymph nodes and 2 schedules of carboplatin based chemotherapy. Time to locoregional failure was analyzed according to the burden of disease at the time of radiation therapy, comparing patients with negative margins, involved margins, or macroscopic disease. Results: Analysis was performed on 88 patients, of whom 9 had microscopically positive resection margins and 26 had macroscopic residual disease. The majority of gross disease was confined to nodal regions. The 5-year time to locoregional failure, time to distant failure, time to progression, and disease-specific survival rates for the whole group were 73%, 69%, 62%, and 66% respectively. The hazard ratio for macroscopic disease at the primary site or the nodes was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 0.57-2.77), P=.58. Conclusions: No statistically significant differences in time to locoregional failure were identified between patients with negative margins and those with microscopic or gross residual disease. These results must, however, be interpreted with caution because of the limited sample size.

  7. Tank 241-T-201, core 192 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nuzum, J.L.

    1997-08-07

    This document is the final laboratory report for Tank 241-T-201. Push mode core segments were removed from Riser 3 between April 24, 1997, and April 25, 1997. Segments were received and extruded at 222-S Laboratory. Analyses were performed in accordance with Tank 241-T-201 Push Mode Core Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP) (Hu, 1997), Letter of Instruction for Core Sample Analysis of Tanks 241-T-201, 241-T-202, 241-T-203, and 241-T-204 (LOI) (Bell, 1997), Additional Core Composite Sample from Drainable Liquid Samples for Tank 241-T-2 01 (ACC) (Hall, 1997), and Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO) (Dukelow, et al., 1995). None of the subsamples submitted for total alpha activity (AT) or differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analyses exceeded the notification limits stated in DQO. The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems Technical Basis Group, and are not considered in this report.

  8. Dipole-dipole resistivity monitoring at the Cerro Prieto geothermal field

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilt, M.J.; Goldstein, N.E.

    1983-03-01

    Two 20 km-long dipole-dipole lines with permanently emplaced electronics at 1-km spacings were established over the field area; one of these lines is remeasured annually. Resistivity measurements are taken using a 25 kW generator capable of up to 80A output and a microprocessor-controlled signal-averaging receiver; this high power-low noise system is capable of highly accurate measurements even at large transmitter-receiver separations. Standard error calculations for collected data indicate errors less than 5% for all points, but 95% confidence intervals show error limits about 2 to 4 times higher. Data indicate little change of apparent resistivity within the upper 300 m over the field. However, apparent resistivity increases are observed over the producing zone at depths of 1 km and greater. Large zones of decreasing apparent resistivity are observed flanking the zone of increases on both sides. To explain the resistivity changes observed, simple two-dimensional reservoir simulations were performed in which cooler, less saline recharge water enters the reservoir from above through a leaky caprock and laterally through a more permeable vertical boundary. The calculated magnitude of a resistivity change after 3 years of simulated production fits the observed data, but the anomaly shapes differ. It is concluded that the rapidly moving hydraulic front produces a salinity change large enough to explain the resistivity increase, but that our recharge assumptions were probably oversimplified.

  9. Sigma: Strain-level inference of genomes from metagenomic analysis for biosurveillance

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Chai, Juanjuan; Pan, Chongle

    2014-09-29

    Motivation: Metagenomic sequencing of clinical samples provides a promising technique for direct pathogen detection and characterization in biosurveillance. Taxonomic analysis at the strain level can be used to resolve serotypes of a pathogen in biosurveillance. Sigma was developed for strain-level identification and quantification of pathogens using their reference genomes based on metagenomic analysis. Results: Sigma provides not only accurate strain-level inferences, but also three unique capabilities: (i) Sigma quantifies the statistical uncertainty of its inferences, which includes hypothesis testing of identified genomes and confidence interval estimation of their relative abundances; (ii) Sigma enables strain variant calling by assigning metagenomic readsmore » to their most likely reference genomes; and (iii) Sigma supports parallel computing for fast analysis of large datasets. In conclusion, the algorithm performance was evaluated using simulated mock communities and fecal samples with spike-in pathogen strains. Availability and Implementation: Sigma was implemented in C++ with source codes and binaries freely available at http://sigma.omicsbio.org.« less

  10. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilbert, R.O.

    1987-01-01

    The application of statistics to environmental pollution monitoring studies requires a knowledge of statistical analysis methods particularly well suited to pollution data. This book fills that need by providing sampling plans, statistical tests, parameter estimation procedure techniques, and references to pertinent publications. Most of the statistical techniques are relatively simple, and examples, exercises, and case studies are provided to illustrate procedures. The book is logically divided into three parts. Chapters 1, 2, and 3 are introductory chapters. Chapters 4 through 10 discuss field sampling designs and Chapters 11 through 18 deal with a broad range of statistical analysis procedures. Some statistical techniques given here are not commonly seen in statistics book. For example, see methods for handling correlated data (Sections 4.5 and 11.12), for detecting hot spots (Chapter 10), and for estimating a confidence interval for the mean of a lognormal distribution (Section 13.2). Also, Appendix B lists a computer code that estimates and tests for trends over time at one or more monitoring stations using nonparametric methods (Chapters 16 and 17). Unfortunately, some important topics could not be included because of their complexity and the need to limit the length of the book. For example, only brief mention could be made of time series analysis using Box-Jenkins methods and of kriging techniques for estimating spatial and spatial-time patterns of pollution, although multiple references on these topics are provided. Also, no discussion of methods for assessing risks from environmental pollution could be included.

  11. Tank 241-BY-101, cores 189 and 199 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nuzum, J.L.

    1997-09-25

    This document is the final laboratory report for Tank 241-BY-101. Push mode core segments were removed from Pisers 10B and 10D between May 27, 1997, and June 1, 1997. Segments were received and extruded at 222-S Laboratory. Analyses were performed in accordance with Tank 241-.BY-101 Push Core Sampling and analysis Plan (TSAP) and Tank Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO). None of the subsamples submitted for total alpha activity (AT) or differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis exceeded the notification limits as stated in TSAP and DQO, The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems (TWRS) Technical Basis Group, and are not considered in this report. Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIR) analysis was requested in order to compare NIR results with those obtained from percent water gravimetry analysis (%H20) and thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA). The TWRS Technical Basis Group rescinded the request for this analysis, and neither NIR nor %H20 analyses were performed.

  12. Charged Particle Radiation Therapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Zhen; Nabhan, Mohammed; Schild, Steven E.; Stafford, Scott L.; Petersen, Ivy A.; Foote, Robert L.; Murad, M. Hassan

    2013-05-01

    Charged particle therapy (CPT) delivered with either protons, helium ions, or carbon ions, has been used to treat uveal melanoma. The present analysis was performed to systematically evaluate the efficacy and adverse effects of CPT for uveal melanoma. We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and SciVerse Scopus and cross-referenced recent systematic reviews through January 2012. Two independent reviewers identified clinical trials and observational studies of CPT (protons, helium ions, and carbon ions). These reviewers extracted data and assessed study quality. Twenty-seven studies enrolling 8809 uveal melanoma patients met inclusion criteria. The rate of local recurrence was significantly less with CPT than with brachytherapy (odds ratio [OR] = 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21-0.23). There were no significant differences in mortality or enucleation rates. Results were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. CPT was also associated with lower retinopathy and cataract formation rates. Data suggest better outcomes may be possible with charged particle therapy with respect to local recurrence, retinopathy, and cataract formation rates. The overall quality of the evidence is low, and higher quality comparative effectiveness studies are needed to provide better evidence.

  13. Observational tests of non-adiabatic Chaplygin gas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carneiro, S.; Pigozzo, C. E-mail: cpigozzo@ufba.br

    2014-10-01

    In a previous paper [1] it was shown that any dark sector model can be mapped into a non-adiabatic fluid formed by two interacting components, one with zero pressure and the other with equation-of-state parameter ?=-1. It was also shown that the latter does not cluster and, hence, the former is identified as the observed clustering matter. This guarantees that the dark matter power spectrum does not suffer from oscillations or instabilities. It applies in particular to the generalised Chaplygin gas, which was shown to be equivalent to interacting models at both background and perturbation levels. In the present paper we test the non-adiabatic Chaplygin gas against the Hubble diagram of type Ia supernovae, the position of the first acoustic peak in the anisotropy spectrum of the cosmic microwave background and the linear power spectrum of large scale structures. We consider two different compilations of SNe Ia, namely the Constitution and SDSS samples, both calibrated with the MLCS2k2 fitter, and for the power spectrum we use the 2dFGRS catalogue. The model parameters to be adjusted are the present Hubble parameter, the present matter density and the Chaplygin gas parameter ?. The joint analysis best fit gives ??-0.5, which corresponds to a constant-rate energy flux from dark energy to dark matter, with the dark energy density decaying linearly with the Hubble parameter. The ?CDM model, equivalent to ?=0, stands outside the 3? confidence interval.

  14. Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR Plant. Volume 7. System failure probability analysis. Load Combination Program Project I final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, L.; Mensing, R.

    1981-06-01

    This volume describes the computational methodology used to estimate the probability of a simultaneous occurrence of an earthquake and a primary coolant loop pipe fracture caused directly by an earthquake for a pressurized water reactor. Point estimates of this probability, based on a simulation experiment, and the probabilities of related events are included. Simulation is used to estimate weld fracture probabilities conditional on a crack initially existing and an earthquake of specified intensity occurring at a specified time in the life of the plant. These estimates are combined with probabilities associated with the occurrence of an earthquake and the existence of a crack to obtain an estimate of the probability of simultaneous earthquake and pipe fracture for the entire primary coolant loop piping system. A point estimate of probability, as outlined in this volume, does not fully take into consideration all of the uncertainties associated with an analysis of this type. Uncertainty analysis, confidence interval estimates, and sensitivity measures better reflect potential uncertainties. These topics are discussed. Finally, a discussion of the use of a risk-based, rather than a probability-based, decision criterion for deciding whether to decouple is included. 13 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. INCORPORATION OF MONO SODIUM TITANATE AND CRYSTALLINE SILICOTITANATE FEEDS IN HIGH LEVEL NUCLEAR WASTE GLASS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fox, K.; Johnson, F.; Edwards, T.

    2010-11-23

    Four series of glass compositions were selected, fabricated, and characterized as part of a study to determine the impacts of the addition of Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) and Monosodium Titanate (MST) from the Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) process on the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) glass waste form and the applicability of the DWPF process control models. All of the glasses studied were considerably more durable than the benchmark Environmental Assessment (EA) glass. The measured Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses were compared with the predicted values from the current DWPF durability model. One of the KT01-series and two of the KT03-series glasses had measured PCT responses that were outside the lower bound of the durability model. All of the KT04 glasses had durabilities that were predictable regardless of heat treatment or compositional view. In general, the measured viscosity values of the KT01, KT03, and KT04-series glasses are well predicted by the current DWPF viscosity model. The results of liquidus temperature (T{sub L}) measurements for the KT01-series glasses were mixed with regard to the predictability of the T{sub L} for each glass. All of the measured T{sub L} values were higher than the model predicted values, although most fell within the 95% confidence intervals. Overall, the results of this study show a reasonable ability to incorporate the anticipated SCIX streams into DWPF-type glass compositions with TiO{sub 2} concentrations of 4-5 wt % in glass.

  16. A FAST RADIO BURST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CARINA DWARF SPHEROIDAL GALAXY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ravi, V.; Shannon, R. M.; Jameson, A.

    2015-01-20

    We report the real-time discovery of a fast radio burst (FRB 131104) with the Parkes radio telescope in a targeted observation of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The dispersion measure of the burst is 779cm{sup 3}pc, exceeding predictions for the maximum line-of-sight Galactic contribution by a factor of 11. The temporal structure of the burst is characterized by an exponential scattering tail with a timescale of 2.0{sub ?0.5}{sup +0.8}ms at 1582MHz that scales as frequency to the power 4.4{sub ?1.8}{sup +1.6} (all uncertainties represent 95% confidence intervals). We bound the intrinsic pulse width to be <0.64ms due to dispersion smearing across a single spectrometer channel. Searches in 78hr of follow-up observations with the Parkes telescope reveal no additional sporadic emission and no evidence for associated periodic radio emission. We hypothesize that the burst is associated with the Carina dwarf galaxy. Follow-up observations at other wavelengths are necessary to test this hypothesis.

  17. Search for: All records | Data Explorer

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Chitra Sivaraman ; Connor Flynn Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval View ...

  18. Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance Intervals and ... Title: Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance Intervals ...

  19. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman ...

  20. Mass Properties Testing and Evaluation for the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Felicione, Frank S.

    2009-12-01

    Mass properties (MP) measurements were performed for the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG), serial number (S/N) 0X730401, the power system designated for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. Measurements were made using new mounting fixtures at the mass properties testing station in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Space and Security Power Systems Facility (SSPSF). The objective of making mass properties measurements was to determine the generators flight configured mass and center of mass or center of gravity (CG). Using an extremely accurate platform scale, the mass of the as-tested generator was determined to be 100.117 0.007 lb. Weight accuracy was determined by checking the platform scale with calibrated weights immediately prior to weighing the MMRTG.a CG measurement accuracy was assessed by surrogate testing using an inert mass standard for which the CG could be readily determined analytically. Repeated testing using the mass standard enabled the basic measurement precision of the system to be quantified in terms of a physical confidence interval about the measured CG position. However, repetitious testing with the MMRTG itself was not performed in deference to the gamma and neutron radiation dose to operators and the damage potential to the flight unit from extra handling operations. Since the mass standard had been specially designed to have a total weight and CG location that closely matched the MMRTG, the uncertainties determined from its testing were assigned to the MMRTG as well. On this basis, and at the 99% confidence level, a statistical analysis found the direct, as-measured MMRTG-MSL CG to be located at 10.816 0.0011 in. measured perpendicular from the plane of the lower surface of the generators mounting lugs (Z direction), and offset from the generators long axis centerline in the X and Y directions by 0.0968 0.0040 in. and 0.0276 0.0026 in., respectively. These uncertainties are based simply on the

  1. Historical Doses from Tritiated Water and Tritiated Hydrogen Gas Released to the Atmosphere from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Part 6. Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, S

    2007-09-05

    Throughout fifty-three years of operations, an estimated 792,000 Ci (29,300 TBq) of tritium have been released to the atmosphere at the Livermore site of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); about 75% was tritium gas (HT) primarily from the accidental releases of 1965 and 1970. Routine emissions contributed slightly more than 100,000 Ci (3,700 TBq) HT and about 75,000 Ci (2,800 TBq) tritiated water vapor (HTO) to the total. A Tritium Dose Reconstruction was undertaken to estimate both the annual doses to the public for each year of LLNL operations and the doses from the few accidental releases. Some of the dose calculations were new, and the others could be compared with those calculated by LLNL. Annual doses (means and 95% confidence intervals) to the potentially most exposed member of the public were calculated for all years using the same model and the same assumptions. Predicted tritium concentrations in air were compared with observed mean annual concentrations at one location from 1973 onwards. Doses predicted from annual emissions were compared with those reported in the past by LLNL. The highest annual mean dose predicted from routine emissions was 34 {micro}Sv (3.4 mrem) in 1957; its upper confidence limit, based on very conservative assumptions about the speciation of the release, was 370 {micro}Sv (37 mrem). The upper confidence limits for most annual doses were well below the current regulatory limit of 100 {micro}Sv (10 mrem) for dose to the public from release to the atmosphere; the few doses that exceeded this were well below the regulatory limits of the time. Lacking the hourly meteorological data needed to calculate doses from historical accidental releases, ingestion/inhalation dose ratios were derived from a time-dependent accident consequence model that accounts for the complex behavior of tritium in the environment. Ratios were modified to account for only those foods growing at the time of the releases. The highest dose from an

  2. Microsoft PowerPoint - 9_ANDY_IMBODEN_NMMSS_2014_Powerpoint_Waste...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    NRC's Waste Confidence Rulemaking Andy Imboden, NRC, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards Outline Schedule Completed Activities Public Participation ...

  3. Biosystems Design

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    capabilities, enabling more confident redesign of microbes and plants for sustainable biofuel production. Understand the roles of Earth's biogeochemical systems...

  4. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    LIMITS (UPL) Uncertainties depend on MMSF and PGA Confidence limits straightforward from GLM Prediction limits required some workresearch - Developed a...

  5. Microsoft PowerPoint - 6_Andy IMboden_Presentation to 2013 NMMSS Conference.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Waste Confidence Activities Andy Imboden, Branch Chief Waste Confidence Directorate, U.S. NRC Agenda  What is Waste Confidence?  Brief History  2012 Court of Appeals Decision  Impacts  Path Forward  Opportunities for Participation  Contact Info and Resources 2 Waste Confidence  Generic "Findings" on Spent Fuel Storage and Repository Availability - Safety and environmental findings - Decision and Rule (10 CFR 51.23)  Relevant to new and operating reactor

  6. PREFERRED WATERFLOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR THE SPRABERRY TREND AREA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C. M. Sizemore; David S. Schechter

    2003-08-13

    This report describes the work performed during the second year of the project, ''Preferred Waterflood Management Practices for the Spraberry Trend Area''. The objective of this project is to significantly increase field-wide production in the Spraberry Trend in a short time frame through the application of preferred practices for managing and optimizing water injection. Our goal is to dispel negative attitudes and lack of confidence in water injection and to document the methodology and results for public dissemination to motivate waterflood expansion in the Spraberry Trend. To achieve this objective, in this period we concentrated our effort on characterization of Germania Unit using an analog field ET ODaniel unit and old cased hole neutron. Petrophysical Characterization of the Germania Spraberry units requires a unique approach for a number of reasons--limited core data, lack of modern log data and absence of directed studies within the unit. The need for characterization of the Germania unit has emerged as a first step in the review, understanding and enhancement of the production practices applicable within the unit and the trend area in general. In the absence or lack of the afore mentioned resources, an approach that will rely heavily on previous petrophysical work carried out in the neighboring ET O'Daniel unit (6.2 miles away), and normalization of the old log data prior to conventional interpretation techniques will be used. A log-based rock model has been able to guide successfully the prediction of pay and non-pay intervals within the ET O'Daniel unit, and will be useful if found applicable within the Germania unit. A novel multiple regression technique utilizing non-parametric transformations to achieve better correlations in predicting a dependent variable (permeability) from multiple independent variables (rock type, shale volume and porosity) will also be investigated in this study. A log data base includes digitized formats of Gamma Ray, Cased

  7. Constraining |V(td)|/|V(ts)| Using Radiative Penguin B -> V(K*/rho/omega)gamma Decays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tan, Ping; /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2006-03-08

    Exclusive radiative penguin B decays, B {yields} (K*{sup 0}/K*{sup +}) and B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma}, are flavor-changing neutral-current (FCNC) processes. Studies of these decays are of special interest in testing Standard Model (SM) predictions and searching for other beyond-the-SM FCNC interactions. Using 89 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs from BABAR, we measure the branching fraction ({Beta}), CP-asymmetry ({Alpha}), and isospin asymmetry ({Delta}{sub 0-}) of B {yields} (K*{sup 0}/K*{sup +}){gamma} as follows: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} K*{sup 0}{gamma}) = 3.92 {+-} 0.20(stat.) {+-} 0.24(syst.); {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} K*{sup +}{gamma}) = 3.87 {+-} 0.28(stat.) {+-} 0.26(syst.); {Alpha}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) = -0.013 {+-} 0.36(stat.) {+-} 0.10(syst.); {Delta}{sub 0-}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) = 0.050 {+-} 0.045(stat.) {+-} 0.028(syst.) {+-} 0.024(R{sup +/0}). The 90% confidence intervals for the CP-asymmetry and the isospin-asymmetry in the B {yields} K*{gamma} decay are given as: -0.074 < {Alpha}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) < 0.049, -0.046 < {Delta}{sub 0-} (B {yields} K*{gamma}) < 0.146. We also search for B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma} decays using 211 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs from BABAR. No evidence for these decays is found. We set the upper limits at 90% confidence level for these decays: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {rho}{sup 0}{gamma}) < 0.4 x 10{sup -6}; {Beta}(B{sup +}{yields} {rho}{sup =}{gamma}) < 1.8 x 10{sup -6}; {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {omega}{gamma}) < 1.0 x 10{sup -6}; {bar {Beta}}(B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma}) < 1.2 x 10{sup -6}. These results are in good agreement with the SM predictions. The branching fractions of these decays are then used to constrain the ratio |V{sub td}|/|V{sub ts}|.

  8. Measurement of CP observables in B__ ->D_CPK__ decays and constraints on the CKM angle gamma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    del Amo Sanchez, P.; Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Prencipe, E.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Martinelli, M.; Palano, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Sun, L.; Battaglia, M.; Brown, D.N.; Hooberman, B.; Kerth, L.T.; Kolomensky, Yu.G.; Lynch, G.; Osipenkov, I.L.; Tanabe, T.; /UC, Berkeley /Birmingham U. /Ruhr U., Bochum /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UC, Riverside /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Dresden, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /Frascati /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Indian Inst. Tech., Guwahati /Harvard U. /Heidelberg U. /Humboldt U., Berlin /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa State U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Paris U., VI-VII /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Mainz U., Inst. Kernphys. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT /McGill U. /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /INFN, Milan /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /INFN, Padua /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DAPNIA, Saclay /SLAC /South Carolina U. /Southern Methodist U. /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tel Aviv U. /Tennessee U. /Texas U. /Texas U., Dallas /INFN, Turin /Turin U. /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U. /Valencia U. /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2010-08-25

    Using the entire sample of 467 million {Upsilon}(4S) {yields} B{bar B} decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B factory at SLAC, we perform a 'GLW' analysis of B{sup {+-}} {yields} D{sup {+-}} decays, using decay modes in which the neutral D meson decays to either CP-eigenstates or non-CP-eigenstates. We measure the partial decay rate charge asymmetries for CP-even and CP-odd D final states to be A{sub CP+} = 0.25 {+-} 0.06 {+-} 0.02 and A{sub CP-} = -0.09 {+-} 0.07 {+-} 0.02, respectively, where the first error is the statistical and the second is the systematic uncertainty. The parameter A{sub CP+} is different from zero with a significance of 3.6 standard deviations, constituting evidence for direct CP violation. We also measure the ratios of the charged-averaged B partial decay rates in CP and non-CP decays, R{sub CP+} = 1.18 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.05 and R{sub CP-} = 1.07 {+-} 0.08 {+-} 0.04. We infer frequentist confidence intervals for the angle {gamma} of the (db) unitarity triangle, for the strong phase difference {delta}{sub B}, and for the amplitude ratio r{sub B}, which are related to the B{sup -} {yields} D{sup -} decay amplitude by r{sub B}e{sup i({delta}{sub b-{gamma}})} = A(B{sup -} {yields} {bar D}{sup 0}K{sup -})/A(B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}K{sup 0-}). Including statistical and systematic uncertainties, they obtain 0.24 < r{sub B} < 0.45 (0.06 < r{sub B} < 0.51) and, modulo 180{sup o}, 11.3{sup o} < {gamma} < 22.7{sup o} or 80.9{sup o} < {gamma} < 99.1{sup o} or 157.3{sup o} < {gamma} 168.7{sup o} (7.0{sup o} < {gamma} < 173.0{sup o}) at the 68% (95%) confidence level.

  9. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 3 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUEL SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TENNESSEE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2013-05-28

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on March 20, 2013. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and Table 1 presents the comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER {<=} 3 indicates that at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2013). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, most DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations. The gross beta result for sample 5198W0012 was the exception. The ORAU result of 9.23 ± 0.73 pCi/L from location MCD is well above NFS's result of -0.567 ± 0.63 pCi/L (non-detected). NFS's data package included a detected result for U-233/234, but no other uranium or plutonium detection, and nothing that would suggest the presence of beta-emitting radionuclides. The ORAU laboratory reanalyzed sample 5198W0012 using the remaining portion of the sample volume and a result of 11.3 ± 1.1 pCi/L was determined. As directed, the laboratory also counted the filtrate using gamma spectrometry analysis and

  10. Summary of Research through Phase II/Year 2 of Initially Approved 3 Phase/3 Year Project - Establishing the Relationship between Fracture-Related Dolomite and Primary Rock Fabric on the Distribution of Reservoirs in the Michigan Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Grammer

    2007-09-30

    This final scientific/technical report covers the first 2 years (Phases I and II of an originally planned 3 Year/3 Phase program). The project was focused on evaluating the relationship between fracture-related dolomite and dolomite constrained by primary rock fabric in the 3 most prolific reservoir intervals in the Michigan Basin. The characterization of select dolomite reservoirs was the major focus of our efforts in Phases I and II of the project. Structural mapping and log analysis in the Dundee (Devonian) and Trenton/Black River (Ordovician) suggest a close spatial relationship among gross dolomite distribution and regional-scale, wrench fault-related NW-SE and NE-SW structural trends. A high temperature origin for much of the dolomite in these 2 studied intervals (based upon fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures and stable isotopic analyses,) coupled with persistent association of this dolomite in reservoirs coincident with wrench fault-related features, is strong evidence for these reservoirs being influenced by hydrothermal dolomitization. In the Niagaran (Silurian), there is a general trend of increasing dolomitization shelfward, with limestone predominant in more basinward positions. A major finding is that facies types, when analyzed at a detailed level, are directly related to reservoir porosity and permeability in these dolomites which increases the predictability of reservoir quality in these units. This pattern is consistent with our original hypothesis of primary facies control on dolomitization and resulting reservoir quality at some level. The identification of distinct and predictable vertical stacking patterns within a hierarchical sequence and cycle framework provides a high degree of confidence at this point that the results should be exportable throughout the basin. Much of the data synthesis and modeling for the project was scheduled to be part of Year 3/Phase III, but the discontinuation of funding after Year 2 precluded those efforts

  11. Measurement of the CP-Violating Phase beta_s in B0s -> J/Psi Phi Decays with the CDF II Detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aaltonen, T.; et al.

    2012-04-01

    We present a measurement of the \\CP-violating parameter \\betas using approximately 6500 $\\BsJpsiPhi$ decays reconstructed with the CDF\\,II detector in a sample of $p\\bar p$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb$^{-1}$ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron Collider at Fermilab. We find the \\CP-violating phase to be within the range $\\betas \\in [0.02, 0.52] \\cup [1.08, 1.55]$ at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential $S$-wave contribution to the $\\Bs\\to J/\\psi K^+K^-$ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval $1.009 < m(K^+K^-)<1.028 \\gevcc$. Assuming the standard model prediction for the \\CP-violating phase \\betas, we find the \\Bs decay width difference to be $\\deltaG = 0.075 \\pm 0.035\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.006\\,\\textrm{(syst)} \\ps$. We also present the most precise measurements of the \\Bs mean lifetime $\\tau(\\Bs) = 1.529 \\pm 0.025\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.012\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$ ps, the polarization fractions $|A_0(0)|^2 = 0.524 \\pm 0.013\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.015\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$ and $|A_{\\parallel}(0)|^2 = 0.231 \\pm 0.014\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.015\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$, as well as the strong phase $\\delta_{\\perp}= 2.95 \\pm 0.64\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.07\\,\\textrm{(syst)} \\textrm{rad}$. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.

  12. Salvage Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases: Prognostic Factors to Consider in Patient Selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, Goldie; Zadeh, Gelareh; Gingras-Hill, Geneviève; Millar, Barbara-Ann; Laperriere, Normand J.; Bernstein, Mark; Jiang, Haiyan; Ménard, Cynthia; Chung, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is offered to patients for recurrent brain metastases after prior brain radiation therapy (RT), but few studies have evaluated the efficacy of salvage SRS or factors to consider in selecting patients for this treatment. This study reports overall survival (OS), intracranial progression-free survival (PFS), and local control (LC) after salvage SRS, and factors associated with outcomes. Methods and Materials: This is a retrospective review of patients treated from 2009 to 2011 with salvage SRS after prior brain RT for brain metastases. Survival from salvage SRS and from initial brain metastases diagnosis (IBMD) was calculated. Univariate and multivariable (MVA) analyses included age, performance status, recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class, extracranial disease control, and time from initial RT to salvage SRS. Results: There were 106 patients included in the analysis with a median age of 56.9 years (range 32.5-82 years). A median of 2 metastases were treated per patient (range, 1-12) with a median dose of 21 Gy (range, 12-24) prescribed to the 50% isodose. With a median follow-up of 10.5 months (range, 0.1-68.2), LC was 82.8%, 60.1%, and 46.8% at 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years, respectively. Median PFS was 6.2 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.9-7.6). Median OS was 11.7 months (95% CI = 8.1-13) from salvage SRS, and 22.1 months from IBMD (95% CI = 18.4-26.8). On MVA, age (P=.01; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.01-1.07), extracranial disease control (P=.004; HR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.27-0.78), and interval from initial RT to salvage SRS of at least 265 days (P=.001; HR = 2.46; 95% CI = 1.47-4.09) were predictive of OS. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that patients can have durable local control and survival after salvage SRS for recurrent brain metastases. In particular, younger patients with controlled extracranial disease and a durable response to initial brain RT are likely to benefit from salvage SRS.

  13. Measurement of the CP-violating phase βsJ/ψΦ in Bs0→J/ψΦ decays with the CDF II detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aaltonen, T.; Álvarez González, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; Artikov, A.; Asaadi, J.; Ashmanskas, W.; Auerbach, B.; Aurisano, A.; Azfar, F.; Badgett, W.; Bae, T.; Barbaro-Galtieri, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Barnett, B. A.; Barria, P.; Bartos, P.; Bauce, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Behari, S.; Bellettini, G.; Bellinger, J.; Benjamin, D.; Beretvas, A.; Bhatti, A.; Bisello, D.; Bizjak, I.; Bland, K. R.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bocci, A.; Bodek, A.; Bortoletto, D.; Boudreau, J.; Bousson, N.; Boveia, A.; Brigliadori, L.; Bromberg, C.; Brucken, E.; Budagov, J.; Budd, H. S.; Burkett, K.; Busetto, G.; Bussey, P.; Buzatu, A.; Calamba, A.; Calancha, C.; Camarda, S.; Campanelli, M.; Campbell, M.; Canelli, F.; Carls, B.; Carlsmith, D.; Carosi, R.; Carrillo, S.; Carron, S.; Casal, B.; Casarsa, M.; Castro, A.; Catastini, P.; Cauz, D.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Chen, Y. C.; Chertok, M.; Chiarelli, G.; Chlachidze, G.; Chlebana, F.; Cho, K.; Chokheli, D.; Chung, W. H.; Chung, Y. S.; Ciocci, M. A.; Clark, A.; Clarke, C.; Compostella, G.; Convery, M. E.; Conway, J.; Corbo, M.; Cordelli, M.; Cox, C. A.; Cox, D. J.; Crescioli, F.; Cuevas, J.; Culbertson, R.; Dagenhart, D.; d’Ascenzo, N.; Datta, M.; de Barbaro, P.; Dell’Orso, M.; Demortier, L.; Deninno, M.; Devoto, F.; d’Errico, M.; Di Canto, A.; Di Ruzza, B.; Dittmann, J. R.; D’Onofrio, M.; Donati, S.; Dong, P.; Dorigo, M.; Dorigo, T.; Ebina, K.; Elagin, A.; Eppig, A.; Erbacher, R.; Errede, S.; Ershaidat, N.; Eusebi, R.; Farrington, S.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J. P.; Field, R.; Flanagan, G.; Forrest, R.; Frank, M. J.; Franklin, M.; Freeman, J. C.; Funakoshi, Y.; Furic, I.; Gallinaro, M.; Garcia, J. E.; Garfinkel, A. F.; Garosi, P.; Gerberich, H.; Gerchtein, E.; Giagu, S.; Giakoumopoulou, V.; Giannetti, P.; Gibson, K.; Ginsburg, C. M.; Giokaris, N.; Giromini, P.; Giurgiu, G.; Glagolev, V.; Glenzinski, D.; Gold, M.; Goldin, D.; Goldschmidt, N.; Golossanov, A.; Gomez, G.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; González, O.; Gorelov, I.; Goshaw, A. T.; Goulianos, K.; Grinstein, S.; Grosso-Pilcher, C.; Group, R. C.; Guimaraes da Costa, J.; Hahn, S. R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hamaguchi, A.; Han, J. Y.; Happacher, F.; Hara, K.; Hare, D.; Hare, M.; Harr, R. F.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hays, C.; Heck, M.; Heinrich, J.; Herndon, M.; Hewamanage, S.; Hocker, A.; Hopkins, W.; Horn, D.; Hou, S.; Hughes, R. E.; Hurwitz, M.; Husemann, U.; Hussain, N.; Hussein, M.; Huston, J.; Introzzi, G.; Iori, M.; Ivanov, A.; James, E.; Jang, D.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jeon, E. J.; Jindariani, S.; Jones, M.; Joo, K. K.; Jun, S. Y.; Junk, T. R.; Kamon, T.; Karchin, P. E.; Kasmi, A.; Kato, Y.; Ketchum, W.; Keung, J.; Khotilovich, V.; Kilminster, B.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, H. S.; Kim, J. E.; Kim, M. J.; Kim, S. B.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. K.; Kim, Y. J.; Kimura, N.; Kirby, M.; Klimenko, S.; Knoepfel, K.; Kondo, K.; Kong, D. J.; Konigsberg, J.; Kotwal, A. V.; Kreps, M.; Kroll, J.; Krop, D.; Kruse, M.; Krutelyov, V.; Kuhr, T.; Kurata, M.; Kwang, S.; Laasanen, A. T.; Lami, S.; Lammel, S.; Lancaster, M.; Lander, R. L.; Lannon, K.; Lath, A.; Latino, G.; LeCompte, T.; Lee, E.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, J. S.; Lee, S. W.; Leo, S.; Leone, S.; Lewis, J. D.; Limosani, A.; Lin, C.-J.; Lindgren, M.; Lipeles, E.; Lister, A.; Litvintsev, D. O.; Liu, C.; Liu, H.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Loginov, A.; Lucchesi, D.; Lueck, J.; Lujan, P.; Lukens, P.; Lungu, G.; Lys, J.; Lysak, R.; Madrak, R.; Maeshima, K.; Maestro, P.; Malik, S.; Manca, G.; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A.; Margaroli, F.; Marino, C.; Martínez, M.; Mastrandrea, P.; Matera, K.; Mattson, M. E.; Mazzacane, A.; Mazzanti, P.; McFarland, K. S.; McIntyre, P.; McNulty, R.; Mehta, A.; Mehtala, P.; Mesropian, C.; Miao, T.; Mietlicki, D.; Mitra, A.; Miyake, H.; Moed, S.; Moggi, N.; Mondragon, M. N.; Moon, C. S.; Moore, R.; Morello, M. J.; Morlock, J.; Movilla Fernandez, P.; Mukherjee, A.; Muller, Th.; Murat, P.; Mussini, M.; Nachtman, J.; Nagai, Y.; Naganoma, J.; Nakano, I.; Napier, A.; Nett, J.; Neu, C.; Neubauer, M. S.; Nielsen, J.; Nodulman, L.; Noh, S. Y.; Norniella, O.; Oakes, L.; Oh, S. H.; Oh, Y. D.; Oksuzian, I.; Okusawa, T.; Orava, R.; Ortolan, L.; Pagan Griso, S.; Pagliarone, C.; Palencia, E.; Papadimitriou, V.; Paramonov, A. A.; Patrick, J.; Pauletta, G.; Paulini, M.; Paus, C.; Pellett, D. E.; Penzo, A.; Phillips, T. J.; Piacentino, G.; Pianori, E.; Pilot, J.; Pitts, K.; Plager, C.; Pondrom, L.; Poprocki, S.; Potamianos, K.; Prokoshin, F.; Pranko, A.; Ptohos, F.; Pueschel, E.; Punzi, G.; Rahaman, A.; Ramakrishnan, V.; Ranjan, N.; Redondo, I.; Renton, P.; Rescigno, M.; Riddick, T.; Rimondi, F.; Ristori, L.; Robson, A.; Rodrigo, T.; Rodriguez, T.; Rogers, E.; Rolli, S.; Roser, R.; Ruffini, F.; Ruiz, A.; Russ, J.; Rusu, V.; Safonov, A.; Sakumoto, W. K.; Sakurai, Y.; Santi, L.; Sato, K.; Saveliev, V.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schlabach, P.; Schmidt, A.; Schmidt, E. E.; Schwarz, T.; Scodellaro, L.; Scribano, A.; Scuri, F.; Seidel, S.; Seiya, Y.; Semenov, A.; Sforza, F.; Shalhout, S. Z.; Shears, T.; Shepard, P. F.; Shimojima, M.; Shochet, M.; Shreyber-Tecker, I.; Simonenko, A.; Sinervo, P.; Sliwa, K.; Smith, J. R.; Snider, F. D.; Soha, A.; Sorin, V.; Song, H.; Squillacioti, P.; Stancari, M.; Denis, R. St.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stentz, D.; Strologas, J.; Strycker, G. L.; Sudo, Y.; Sukhanov, A.; Suslov, I.; Takemasa, K.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tang, J.; Tecchio, M.; Teng, P. K.; Thom, J.; Thome, J.; Thompson, G. A.; Thomson, E.; Toback, D.; Tokar, S.; Tollefson, K.; Tomura, T.; Tonelli, D.; Torre, S.; Torretta, D.; Totaro, P.; Trovato, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Uozumi, S.; Varganov, A.; Vázquez, F.; Velev, G.; Vellidis, C.; Vidal, M.; Vila, I.; Vilar, R.; Vizán, J.; Vogel, M.; Volpi, G.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. L.; Wakisaka, T.; Wallny, R.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Waters, D.; Wester, W. C.; Whiteson, D.; Wicklund, A. B.; Wicklund, E.; Wilbur, S.; Wick, F.; Williams, H. H.; Wilson, J. S.; Wilson, P.; Winer, B. L.; Wittich, P.; Wolbers, S.; Wolfe, H.; Wright, T.; Wu, X.; Wu, Z.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamato, D.; Yang, T.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y. C.; Yao, W.-M.; Yeh, G. P.; Yi, K.; Yoh, J.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yu, G. B.; Yu, I.; Yu, S. S.; Yun, J. C.; Zanetti, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhou, C.; Zucchelli, S.

    2012-04-23

    We present a measurement of the CP-violating parameter βsJ/ψΦ using approximately 6500 B0s→J/ψΦ decays reconstructed with the CDF II detector in a sample of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb⁻¹ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. We find the CP-violating phase to be within the range βsJ/ψΦϵ [0.02,0.52]∪[1.08,1.55] at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential S-wave contribution to the B0s→J/ψK⁺K⁻ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval 1.009sJ/ψΦ, we find the B0s decay width difference to be ΔΓs=0.075±0.035(stat)±0.006(syst) ps⁻¹. We also present the most precise measurements of the B0s mean lifetime τ(B0s)=1.529±0.025(stat)±0.012(syst) ps, the polarization fractions |A0(0)|²=0.524±0.013(stat)±0.015(syst) and |A II (0)|²=0.231±0.014(stat)±0.015(syst), as well as the strong phase δ=2.95±0.64(stat)±0.07(syst) rad. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.

  14. A phase III randomized trial of postoperative pelvic irradiation in stage IB cervical carcinoma with poor prognostic features: Follow-up of a gynecologic oncology group study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rotman, Marvin . E-mail: mrotman@downstate.edu; Sedlis, Alexander; Piedmonte, Marion R.; Bundy, Brian; Lentz, Samuel S.; Muderspach, Laila I.; Zaino, Richard J.

    2006-05-01

    Purpose: To investigate, in a phase III randomized trial, whether postoperative external-beam irradiation to the standard pelvic field improves the recurrence-free interval and overall survival (OS) in women with Stage IB cervical cancers with negative lymph nodes and certain poor prognostic features treated by radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy. Methods and Materials: Eligible patients had Stage IB cervical cancer with negative lymph nodes but with 2 or more of the following features: more than one third (deep) stromal invasion, capillary lymphatic space involvement, and tumor diameter of 4 cm or more. The study group included 277 patients: 137 randomized to pelvic irradiation (RT) and 140 randomized to observation (OBS). The planned pelvic dose was from 46 Gy in 23 fractions to 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. Results: Of the 67 recurrences, 24 were in the RT arm and 43 were in the OBS arm. The RT arm showed a statistically significant (46%) reduction in risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.54, 90% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35 to 0.81, p = 0.007) and a statistically significant reduction in risk of progression or death (HR = 0.58, 90% CI = 0.40 to 0.85, p = 0.009). With RT, 8.8% of patients (3 of 34) with adenosquamous or adenocarcinoma tumors recurred vs. 44.0% (11 of 25) in OBS. Fewer recurrences were seen with RT in patients with adenocarcinoma or adenosquamous histologies relative to others (HR for RT by histology interaction = 0.23, 90% CI = 0.07 to 0.74, p = 0.019). After an extensive follow-up period, 67 deaths have occurred: 27 RT patients and 40 OBS patients. The improvement in overall survival (HR = 0.70, 90% CI = 0.45 to 1.05, p = 0.074) with RT did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: Pelvic radiotherapy after radical surgery significantly reduces the risk of recurrence and prolongs progression-free survival in women with Stage IB cervical cancer. RT appears to be particularly beneficial for patients with adenocarcinoma or

  15. Qualification of the Savannah River National Laboratories Coulometer, Model SRNL-Rev. 2 (Serial # SRNL-003 Coulometer) for use in Process 3401a, Plutonium Assay by Controlled Coulometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tandon, Lav; Colletti, Lisa M.; Drake, Lawrence R.; Lujan, Elmer J. W.; Garduno, Katherine

    2012-08-22

    This report discusses the process used to prove in the SRNL-Rev.2 coulometer for isotopic data analysis used in the special plutonium material project. In May of 2012, the PAR 173 coulometer system that had been the workhorse of the Plutonium Assay team since the early 1970s became inoperable. A new coulometer system had been purchased from Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and installed in August of 2011. Due to funding issues the new system was not qualified at that time. Following the failure of the PAR 173, it became necessary to qualify the new system for use in Process 3401a, Plutonium Assay by Controlled Coulometry. A qualification plan similar to what is described in PQR -141a was followed. Experiments were performed to establish a statistical summary of the performance of the new system by monitoring the repetitive analysis of quality control sample, PEOL, and the assay of plutonium metals obtained from the Plutonium Exchange Program. The data for the experiments was acquired using work instructions ANC125 and ANC195. Figure 1 shows approximately 2 years of data for the PEOL material obtained using the PAR 173. The required acceptance criteria for the sample are that it returns the correct value for the quality control material of 88.00% within 2 sigma (95% Confidence Interval). It also must meet daily precision standards that are set from the historical data analysis of decades of data. The 2 sigma value that is currently used is 0.146 % as evaluated by the Statistical Science Group, CCS-6. The average value of the PEOL quality control material run in 10 separate days on the SRNL-03 coulometer is 87.98% with a relative standard deviation of 0.04 at the 95% Confidence interval. The date of data acquisition is between 5/23/2012 to 8/1/2012. The control samples are run every day experiments using the coulometer are carried out. It is also used to prove an instrument is in statistical control before any experiments are undertaken. The total number of

  16. Hydroacoustic Evaluation of Overwintering Summer Steelhead Fallback and Kelt Passage at The Dalles Dam 2008-2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khan, Fenton; Johnson, Gary E.; Weiland, Mark A.

    2009-09-01

    This report presents the results of an evaluation of overwintering summer steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fallback and early out-migrating steelhead kelts downstream passage at The Dalles Dam (TDA) sluiceway and turbines during fall/winter 2008 and early spring 2009, respectively. The study was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District (USACE). Operating the sluiceway reduces the potential for hydropower production. However, this surface flow outlet may be the optimal non-turbine route for fallbacks in late fall after the sluiceway is typically closed for juvenile fish passage and for overwintering summer steelhead and kelt passage in the early spring before the start of the voluntary spill season. The goal of this study was to characterize adult steelhead spatial and temporal distributions and passage rates at the sluiceway and turbines, and their movements in front of the sluiceway at TDA to inform fisheries managers’ and engineers’ decision-making relative to sluiceway operations. The study periods were from November 1 to December 15, 2008 (45 days) and from March 1 to April 9, 2009 (40 days). The study objectives were to 1) estimate the number and distribution of overwintering summer steelhead fallbacks and kelt-sized acoustic targets passing into the sluiceway and turbines at TDA during the two study periods, respectively, and 2) assess the behavior of these fish in front of sluice entrances. We obtained fish passage data using fixed-location hydroacoustics and fish behavior data using acoustic imaging. For the overwintering summer steelhead, fallback occurred throughout the 45-day study period. We estimated that a total of 1790 ± 250 (95% confidence interval) summer steelhead targets passed through the powerhouse intakes and operating sluices during November 1 to December 15, 2008. Ninety five percent of these fish passed through the sluiceway. Therefore, without the sluiceway as

  17. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 1999 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J.; Kellar, Dale S.

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project (FCAP) sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam along with yearlings released on-station from Lyons Ferry Hatchery in 1999. This was the fourth year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 453,117 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities not only slightly exceeded the 450,000 fish quota, but a second release of 76,386 yearlings (hereafter called Surplus) were acclimated at the Big Canyon facility and released about two weeks after the primary releases. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 9,941 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 9,583 from Big Canyon, 2,511 Big Canyon Surplus and 2,494 from Captain John Rapids. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife released 983 PIT tagged yearlings from Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels could be considered relatively low and did not appear to increase after transport to the acclimation facilities. Compared to prior years, Quantitative Health Assessment Indices were relatively low at Pittsburg Landing and Lyons Ferry Hatchery and relatively high at Big Canyon and Captain John Rapids. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the release groups ranged from 147.4 mm (146.7-148.1 mm) at Captain John Rapids to 163.7 mm (163.3-164.1 mm) at Pittsburg Landing. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.04 at

  18. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 2003 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J.

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project (FCAP) sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam in 2003. This was the eighth year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 437,633 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities were short of the 450,000 fish quota. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 7,492 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 7,494 from Big Canyon and 2,497 from Captain John Rapids. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels at the acclimation facilities could be considered medium with 37-83% of the fish sampled rating medium to very high. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the PIT tagged groups ranged from 153.7 mm (153.2-154.2 mm) at Captain John Rapids to 164.2 mm (163.9-164.5 mm) at Pittsburg Landing. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.06 at Lyons Ferry Hatchery to 1.22 at Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival (95% confidence interval) of PIT tagged yearlings from release to Lower Granite Dam ranged from 83.1% (80.7-85.5%) for Big Canyon to 91.7% (87.7-95.7%) for Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival from release to McNary Dam ranged from 59.9% (54.6-65.2%) for Big Canyon to 69.4% (60.5-78.4%) for Captain John Rapids. Median migration rates to Lower Granite Dam, based on all observations of PIT tagged yearlings from the FCAP facilities, ranged from 5.8 river kilometers per day (rkm/d) for Captain

  19. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 2002 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J.; Kellar, Dale S.

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam in 2002. This was the seventh year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 479,358 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities exceeded the 450,000 fish quota. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 7,545 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 7,482 from Big Canyon and 2,487 from Captain John Rapids. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels at the acclimation facilities could be considered medium to high with 43-62% of fish sampled rating medium to very high. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the PIT tagged groups ranged from 146.7 mm (146.2-147.2 mm) at Captain John Rapids to 164.8 mm (163.5-166.1 mm) at Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.06 at Lyons Ferry Hatchery to 1.14 at Pittsburg Landing and Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival (95% confidence interval) of PIT tagged yearlings from release to Lower Granite Dam ranged from 88.6% (86.0-91.1%) for Pittsburg Landing to 97.0% (92.4-101.7%) for Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival from release to McNary Dam ranged from 54.3% (50.2-58.3%) for Big Canyon to 70.5% (65.4-75.5%) for Pittsburg Landing. Median migration rates to Lower Granite Dam, based on all observations of PIT tagged yearlings from the FCAP facilities, ranged from 8.1 river kilometers per

  20. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 2004 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J. Nez Perce Tribe, Department of Fisheries Resource Management, Lapawi, ID)

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project (FCAP) sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam in 2004. This was the ninth year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 414,452 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities were short of the 450,000 fish quota. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 4,983 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 4,984 from Big Canyon and 4,982 from Captain John Rapids. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels could be considered low with 53-94% rating not detected to low. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the PIT tagged groups ranged from 154.6 mm (154.0-155.2 mm) at Pittsburg Landing to 163.0 mm (162.6-163.4 mm) at Captain John Rapids. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.06 at Lyons Ferry Hatchery to 1.16 at Big Canyon. Estimated survival (95% confidence interval) of PIT tagged yearlings from release to Lower Granite Dam ranged from 74.7% (72.9-76.5%) for Big Canyon to 88.1% (85.7-90.6%) for Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival from release to McNary Dam ranged from 45.3% (39.2-51.5%) for Pittsburg Landing to 52.1% (42.9-61.2%) for Big Canyon. Median migration rates to Lower Granite Dam, based on all observations of PIT tagged yearlings from the FCAP facilities, ranged from 5.5 river kilometers per day (rkm/d) for Captain John Rapids to 12.8 rkm/d for Pittsburg Landing. Median migration

  1. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 2000 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J.; Kellar, Dale S.

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam along with yearlings released on-station from Lyons Ferry Hatchery in 2000. This was the fifth year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 397,339 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities were short of the 450,000 fish quota. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 7,477 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 7,421 from Big Canyon and 2,488 from Captain John Rapids. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife released 980 PIT tagged yearlings from Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels could be considered relatively low. Compared to prior years, Quantitative Health Assessment Indices were relatively low at Big Canyon and Captain John Rapids and about average at Pittsburg Landing and Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the PIT tagged groups ranged from 157.7 mm (157.3-158.1 mm) at Big Canyon to 172.9 mm (172.2-173.6 mm) at Captain John Rapids. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.06 at Captain John Rapids and Lyons Ferry Hatchery to 1.12 at Big Canyon. Estimated survival (95% confidence interval) of PIT tagged yearlings from release to Lower Granite Dam ranged from 87.0% (84.7-89.4%) for Pittsburg Landing to 95.2% (91.5-98.9%) for Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival from release to

  2. Monitoring and Evaluation of Yearling Fall Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Released from Acclimation Facilities Upstream of Lower Granite Dam; 2001 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rocklage, Stephen J.; Kellar, Dale S.

    2005-07-01

    The Nez Perce Tribe, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, conducted monitoring and evaluation studies on Lyons Ferry Hatchery reared yearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were acclimated and released at three Fall Chinook Acclimation Project sites upstream of Lower Granite Dam along with yearlings released on-station from Lyons Ferry Hatchery in 2001. This was the sixth year of a long-term project to supplement natural spawning populations of Snake River stock fall Chinook salmon upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The 318,932 yearlings released from the Fall Chinook Acclimation Project facilities were short of the 450,000 fish quota. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to monitor the primary performance measures of survival to mainstem dams and migration timing. We also monitor size, condition and tag/mark retention at release. We released 7,503 PIT tagged yearlings from Pittsburg Landing, 7,499 from Big Canyon and 2,518 from Captain John Rapids. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife released 991 PIT tagged yearlings from Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Fish health sampling indicated that, overall, bacterial kidney disease levels could be considered relatively low. Compared to prior years, Quantitative Health Assessment Indices were relatively low at Big Canyon and Captain John Rapids and about average at Pittsburg Landing and Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Mean fork lengths (95% confidence interval) of the PIT tagged groups ranged from 155.4 mm (154.7-156.1 mm) at Captain John Rapids to 171.6 mm (170.7-172.5 mm) at Lyons Ferry Hatchery. Mean condition factors ranged from 1.02 at Lyons Ferry Hatchery to 1.16 at Big Canyon and Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival (95% confidence interval) of PIT tagged yearlings from release to Lower Granite Dam ranged from 74.4% (73.2-75.5%) for Big Canyon to 85.2% (83.5-87.0%) for Captain John Rapids. Estimated survival from release

  3. Evaluate Potenial Means of Rebuilding Sturgeon Populations in the Snake River between Lower Granite and Hells Canyon Dams, 2002 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Everett, Scott R.; Tuell, Michael A.; Hesse, Jay A.

    2004-02-01

    The specific research goal of this project is to identify means to restore and rebuild the Snake River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) population to support a sustainable annual subsistence harvest equivalent to 5 kg/ha/yr (CBFWA 1997). Based on data collected, a white sturgeon adaptive management plan will be developed. This report presents a summary of results from the 1997-2002 Phase II data collection and represents the end of phase II. From 1997 to 2001 white sturgeon were captured, marked, and population data were collected in the Snake and Salmon. A total of 1,785 white sturgeon were captured and tagged in the Snake River and 77 in the Salmon River. Since 1997, 25.8 percent of the tagged white sturgeon have been recaptured. Relative density of white sturgeon was highest in the free-flowing segment of the Snake River, with reduced densities of fish in Lower Granite Reservoir, and low densities the Salmon River. Differences were detected in the length frequency distributions of white sturgeon in Lower Granite Reservoir, the free-flowing Snake River and the Salmon River (Chi-Square test, P<0.05). The proportion of white sturgeon greater than 92 cm (total length) in the free-flowing Snake River has shown an increase of 30 percent since the 1970's. Using the Jolly-Seber model, the abundance of white sturgeon <60 cm, between Lower Granite Dam and the mouth of the Salmon River, was estimated at 2,483 fish, with a 95% confidence interval of 1,208-7,477. Total annual mortality rate was estimated to be 0.14 (95% confidence interval of 0.12 to 0.17). A total of 35 white sturgeon were fitted with radio-tags during 1999-2002. The movement of these fish ranged from 53 km (33 miles) downstream to 77 km (48 miles) upstream; however, 38.8 percent of the detected movement was less than 0.8 km (0.5 mile). Both radio-tagged fish and recaptured white sturgeon in Lower Granite Reservoir appear to move more than fish in the free-flowing segment of the Snake River. No

  4. Low-Dose Radiation Cataract and Genetic Determinants of Radiosensitivity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kleiman, Norman Jay

    2013-11-30

    The lens of the eye is one of the most radiosensitive tissues in the body. Ocular ionizing radiation exposure results in characteristic, dose related, progressive lens changes leading to cataract formation. While initial, early stages of lens opacification may not cause visual disability, the severity of such changes progressively increases with dose until vision is impaired and cataract extraction surgery may be required. Because of the transparency of the eye, radiation induced lens changes can easily be followed non-invasively over time. Thus, the lens provides a unique model system in which to study the effects of low dose ionizing radiation exposure in a complex, highly organized tissue. Despite this observation, considerable uncertainties remain surrounding the relationship between dose and risk of developing radiation cataract. For example, a growing number of human epidemiological findings suggest significant risk among various groups of occupationally and accidentally exposed individuals and confidence intervals that include zero dose. Nevertheless, questions remain concerning the relationship between lens opacities, visual disability, clinical cataract, threshold dose and/or the role of genetics in determining radiosensitivity. Experimentally, the response of the rodent eye to radiation is quite similar to that in humans and thus animal studies are well suited to examine the relationship between radiation exposure, genetic determinants of radiosensitivity and cataractogenesis. The current work has expanded our knowledge of the low-dose effects of X-irradiation or high-LET heavy ion exposure on timing and progression of radiation cataract and has provided new information on the genetic, molecular, biochemical and cell biological features which contribute to this pathology. Furthermore, findings have indicated that single and/or multiple haploinsufficiency for various genes involved in DNA repair and cell cycle checkpoint control, such as Atm, Brca1 or Rad9

  5. Cadmium exposure and cardiovascular disease in the 2005 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Mi-Sun; Park, Sung Kyun; Hu, Howard; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI ; Lee, Sundong; Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Oriental Medicine, Sangji University, Wonju, Kangwon

    2011-01-15

    Background: Limited epidemiologic data are available concerning the cardiovascular effects of cadmium exposure, although recent studies suggest associations with myocardial infarction and peripheral arterial disease. We examined the associations of cadmium exposure with cardiovascular disease in nationally representative general Korean adults. Methods: We used cross-sectional data on blood cadmium and self-reported diagnoses of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertension in a sub-sample of 1908 adults, aged 20 years and older, who participated in the 2005 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We used survey logistic regression models accounting for the complex sampling design to estimate the odds ratios (OR), adjusting for age, education, income, alcohol, smoking, body mass index, waist circumference, family history of hypertension, blood pressure, and blood lead. Results: The geometric mean of blood cadmium was 1.53 {mu}g/L. After adjusting for potential confounders, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in blood cadmium (0.91 {mu}g/L) was found to be associated with an increased risk for IHD (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.4). An IQR increase in blood cadmium was found to be associated with an elevated risk for hypertension only among men (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) but not among women. No association was observed with stroke in both genders. Conclusions: These findings suggest that cadmium in blood may be associated with an increased risk for IHD and hypertension in the general Korean adult population.

  6. Outcomes After Intensity-Modulated Versus Conformal Radiotherapy in Older Men With Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bekelman, Justin E.; Mitra, Nandita; Efstathiou, Jason; Liao Kaijun; Sunderland, Robert; Yeboa, Deborah N.; Armstrong, Katrina

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: There is little evidence comparing complications after intensity-modulated (IMRT) vs. three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (CRT) for prostate cancer. The study objective was to test the hypothesis that IMRT, compared with CRT, is associated with a reduction in bowel, urinary, and erectile complications in elderly men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We undertook an observational cohort study using registry and administrative claims data from the SEER-Medicare database. We identified men aged 65 years or older diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer in the United States between 2002 and 2004 who received IMRT (n = 5,845) or CRT (n = 6,753). The primary outcome was a composite measure of bowel complications. Secondary outcomes were composite measures of urinary and erectile complications. We also examined specific subsets of bowel (proctitis/hemorrhage) and urinary (cystitis/hematuria) events within the composite complication measures. Results: IMRT was associated with reductions in composite bowel complications (24-month cumulative incidence 18.8% vs. 22.5%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.93) and proctitis/hemorrhage (HR 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64-0.95). IMRT was not associated with rates of composite urinary complications (HR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.83-1.04) or cystitis/hematuria (HR 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83-1.07). The incidence of erectile complications involving invasive procedures was low and did not differ significantly between groups, although IMRT was associated with an increase in new diagnoses of impotence (HR 1.27, 95% CI, 1.14-1.42). Conclusion: IMRT is associated with a small reduction in composite bowel complications and proctitis/hemorrhage compared with CRT in elderly men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer.

  7. Introducing the Concept of the Minimally Important Difference to Determine a Clinically Relevant Change on Patient-Reported Outcome Measures in Patients with Intermittent Claudication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Conijn, Anne P.; Jonkers, Wilma; Rouwet, Ellen V.; Vahl, Anco C.; Reekers, Jim A.; Koelemay, Mark J. W.

    2015-10-15

    PurposeThe minimally important difference (MID) represents the smallest change in score on patient-reported outcome measures that is relevant to patients. The aim of this study was to introduce the MID for the Vascular Quality of Life Questionnaire (VascuQol) and the walking impairment questionnaire (WIQ) for patients with intermittent claudication (IC).MethodsIn this multicenter study, we recruited 294 patients with IC between July and October 2012. Patients completed the VascuQol, with scores ranging from 1 to 7 (worst to best), and the WIQ, with scores ranging from 0 to 1 (worst to best) at first visit and after 4 months follow-up. In addition, patients answered an anchor-question rating their health status compared to baseline, as being improved, unchanged, or deteriorated. The MID for improvement and deterioration was calculated by an anchor-based approach, and determined with the upper and lower limits of the 95 % confidence interval of the mean change of the group who had not changed according to the anchor-question.ResultsFor the MID analyses of the VascuQol and WIQ, 163 and 134 patients were included, respectively. The MID values for the VascuQol (mean baseline score 4.25) were 0.87 for improvement and 0.23 for deterioration. For the WIQ (mean baseline score 0.39), we found MID values of 0.11 and −0.03 for improvement and deterioration, respectively.ConclusionIn this study, we calculated the MID for the VascuQol and the WIQ. Applying these MID facilitates better interpretation of treatment outcomes and can help to set treatment goals for individual care.

  8. Residual Tumor After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Outside the Radiation Therapy Target Volume: A New Prognostic Factor for Survival in Esophageal Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Muijs, Christina; Smit, Justin; Karrenbeld, Arend; Beukema, Jannet; Mul, Veronique; Dam, Go van; Hospers, Geke; Kluin, Phillip; Langendijk, Johannes; Plukker, John

    2014-03-15

    Purpose/Objective(s): The aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of gross tumor volume (GTV) delineation and clinical target volume (CTV) margins for neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (neo-CRT) in esophageal carcinoma at pathologic examination and to determine the impact on survival. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 63 esophageal cancer patients treated with neo-CRT. GTV and CTV borders were demarcated in situ during surgery on the esophagus, using anatomical reference points to provide accurate information regarding tumor location at pathologic evaluation. To identify prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS), a Cox regression analysis was performed. Results: After resection, macroscopic residual tumor was found outside the GTV in 7 patients (11%). Microscopic residual tumor was located outside the CTV in 9 patients (14%). The median follow-up was 15.6 months. With multivariate analysis, only microscopic tumor outside the CTV (hazard ratio [HR], 4.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-15.36), and perineural growth (HR, 5.77; 95% CI, 1.27-26.13) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. The 1-year OS was 20% for patients with tumor outside the CTV and 86% for those without (P<.01). For DFS, microscopic tumor outside the CTV (HR, 5.92; 95% CI, 1.89-18.54) and ypN+ (HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.33-8.48) were identified as independent adverse prognostic factors. The 1-year DFS was 23% versus 77% for patients with or without tumor outside the CTV (P<.01). Conclusions: Microscopic tumor outside the CTV is associated with markedly worse OS after neo-CRT. This may either stress the importance of accurate tumor delineation or reflect aggressive tumor behavior requiring new adjuvant treatment modalities.

  9. Baseline Utilization of Breast Radiotherapy Before Institution of the Medicare Practice Quality Reporting Initiative

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Benjamin D. Smith, Grace L.; Roberts, Kenneth B.; Buchholz, Thomas A.

    2009-08-01

    Purpose: In 2007, Medicare implemented the Physician Quality Reporting Initiative (PQRI), which provides financial incentives to physicians who report their performance on certain quality measures. PQRI measure no. 74 recommends radiotherapy for patients treated with conservative surgery (CS) for invasive breast cancer. As a first step in evaluating the potential impact of this measure, we assessed baseline use of radiotherapy among women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer before implementation of PQRI. Methods and Materials: Using the SEER-Medicare data set, we identified women aged 66-70 diagnosed with invasive breast cancer and treated with CS between 2000 and 2002. Treatment with radiotherapy was determined using SEER and claims data. Multivariate logistic regression tested whether receipt of radiotherapy varied significantly across clinical, pathologic, and treatment covariates. Results: Of 3,674 patients, 94% (3,445) received radiotherapy. In adjusted analysis, the presence of comorbid illness (odds ratio [OR] 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-2.42) and unmarried marital status were associated with omission of radiotherapy (OR 1.65; 95% CI, 1.22-2.20). In contrast, receipt of chemotherapy was protective against omission of radiotherapy (OR 0.25; 95% CI, 0.16-0.38). Race and geographic region did not correlate with radiotherapy utilization. Conclusions: Utilization of radiotherapy following CS was high for patients treated before institution of PQRI, suggesting that at most 6% of patients could benefit from measure no. 74. Further research is needed to determine whether institution of PQRI will affect radiotherapy utilization.

  10. Measurement of the $W^+W^-$ cross section in pp collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV and limits on anomalous gauge couplings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2015-07-14

    A measurement of the W boson pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at √ s = 8 TeV is presented. The data we collected with the CMS detector at the LHC correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.4 fb-1 . The W+W- candidates are selected from events with two charged leptons, electrons or muons, and large missing transverse energy. The measured W+W- cross section is 60.1 ± 0.9 (stat) ± 3.2 (exp) ± 3.1 (theo) ± 1.6 (lumi) pb = 60.1 ± 4.8 pb, consistent with the standard model prediction. The W+W-cross sections are also measured in two different fiducial phase space regions. The normalized differential cross section is measured as a function of kinematic variables of the final-state charged leptons and compared with several perturbative QCD predictions. Limits on anomalous gauge couplings associated with dimension-six operators are also given in the framework of an effective field theory. Finally, the corresponding 95% confidence level intervals are -5.7 < cWWW2 < 5.9 TeV-2 , -11.4 < cW2 < 5.4 TeV-2 , -29.2 < cB2 < 23.9 TeV-2 , in the HISZ basis.

  11. Kidney cancer and hydrocarbon exposures among petroleum refinery workers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poole, C.; Dreyer, N.A.; Satterfield, M.H.; Levin, L.

    1993-12-01

    To evaluate the hypothesis of increased kidney cancer risk after exposure to hydrocarbons, especially those present in gasoline, we conducted a case-control study in a cohort of approximately 100,000 male refinery workers from five petroleum companies. A review of 18,323 death certificates identified 102 kidney cancer cases, to each of whom four controls were matched by refinery location and decade of birth. Work histories, containing an average of 15.7 job assignments per subject, were found for 98% of the cases and 94% of the controls. Tb each job, industrial hygienists assigned semiquantitative ratings for the intensity and frequency of exposures to three hydrocarbon categories: nonaromatic liquid gasoline distillates, aromatic hydrocarbons, and the more volatile hydrocarbons. Ratings of {open_quotes}present{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}absent{close_quotes} were assigned for seven additional exposures: higher boiling hydrocarbons, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, asbestos, chlorinated solvents, ionizing radiation, and lead. Each exposure had either no association or a weak association with kidney cancer. For the hydrocarbon category of principal a priori interest, the nonaromatic liquid gasoline distillates, the estimated relative risk (RR) for any exposure above refinery background was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-1.9). Analyses of cumulative exposures and of exposures in varying time periods before kidney cancer occurrence also produced null or near-null results. In an analysis of the longest job held by each subject (average duration 9.2 years or 40% of the refiner&y work history), three groups appeared to be at increased risk: laborers (RR = 1.9,95% CI 1.0-3.9); workers in receipt, storage, and movements (RR = 2.5,95% CI 0.9-6.6); and unit cleaners (RR = 2.3, 95% CI 0.5-9.9). 53 refs., 7 tabs.

  12. Algorithmic advances in stochastic programming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morton, D.P.

    1993-07-01

    Practical planning problems with deterministic forecasts of inherently uncertain parameters often yield unsatisfactory solutions. Stochastic programming formulations allow uncertain parameters to be modeled as random variables with known distributions, but the size of the resulting mathematical programs can be formidable. Decomposition-based algorithms take advantage of special structure and provide an attractive approach to such problems. We consider two classes of decomposition-based stochastic programming algorithms. The first type of algorithm addresses problems with a ``manageable`` number of scenarios. The second class incorporates Monte Carlo sampling within a decomposition algorithm. We develop and empirically study an enhanced Benders decomposition algorithm for solving multistage stochastic linear programs within a prespecified tolerance. The enhancements include warm start basis selection, preliminary cut generation, the multicut procedure, and decision tree traversing strategies. Computational results are presented for a collection of ``real-world`` multistage stochastic hydroelectric scheduling problems. Recently, there has been an increased focus on decomposition-based algorithms that use sampling within the optimization framework. These approaches hold much promise for solving stochastic programs with many scenarios. A critical component of such algorithms is a stopping criterion to ensure the quality of the solution. With this as motivation, we develop a stopping rule theory for algorithms in which bounds on the optimal objective function value are estimated by sampling. Rules are provided for selecting sample sizes and terminating the algorithm under which asymptotic validity of confidence interval statements for the quality of the proposed solution can be verified. Issues associated with the application of this theory to two sampling-based algorithms are considered, and preliminary empirical coverage results are presented.

  13. Long-term Survival Outcomes Following Internal Mammary Node Irradiation in Stage II-III Breast Cancer: Results of a Large Retrospective Study With 12-Year Follow-up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chang, Jee Suk; Park, Won; Kim, Yong Bae; Lee, Ik Jae; Keum, Ki Chang; Lee, Chang Geol; Choi, Doo Ho; Suh, Chang-Ok; Huh, Seung Jae

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To examine the effect of internal mammary node irradiation (IMNI) on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients treated with modified radical mastectomy and postoperative radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1994 and 2002, 396 patients with stage II-III breast cancer were treated with postmastectomy radiation therapy with (n=197) or without (n=199) IMNI. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy were excluded. IMNI was administered at the clinical discretion of the treating physician. Median RT dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 45.0-59.4 Gy) in 28 fractions, with inclusion of the supraclavicular fossa in 96% of patients. Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 99.7% of the patients and endocrine therapy to 53%. Results: The median follow-up was 149 months (range, 124-202). IMNI patients had more advanced nodal stage and non-high grade tumors than those without IMNI (P<.001). Otherwise, disease and treatment characteristics were well balanced. The 10-year DFS with and without IMNI was 65% and 57%, respectively (P=.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that IMNI was an independent, positive predictor of DFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; P=.02). Benefits of IMNI in DFS were seen most apparently in N2 patients (HR, 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.74) and inner/central tumors (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.34-0.90). The 10-year OS with and without IMNI was 72% and 66%, respectively (P=.62). The 10-year DFS and OS were 61%, and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Internal mammary node irradiation significantly improved DFS in postmastectomy breast cancer patients. Pending long-term results from randomized trials, treatment of internal mammary nodes should be considered in postmastectomy radiation therapy.

  14. A Prospective Pathologic Study to Define the Clinical Target Volume for Partial Breast Radiation Therapy in Women With Early Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, Brandon T.; Deb, Siddhartha; Victorian Cancer Biobank, Cancer Council of Victoria, Carlton, Victoria ; Fox, Stephen; Hill, Prudence; Collins, Marnie; Chua, Boon H.; University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria

    2012-12-01

    Purpose: To determine an appropriate clinical target volume for partial breast radiation therapy (PBRT) based on the spatial distribution of residual invasive and in situ carcinoma after wide local excision (WLE) for early breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Methods and Materials: We performed a prospective pathologic study of women potentially eligible for PBRT who had re-excision and/or completion mastectomy after WLE for early breast cancer or DCIS. A pathologic assessment protocol was used to determine the maximum radial extension (MRE) of residual carcinoma from the margin of the initial surgical cavity. Women were stratified by the closest initial radial margin width: negative (>1 mm), close (>0 mm and {<=}1 mm), or involved. Results: The study population was composed of 133 women with a median age of 59 years (range, 27-82 years) and the following stage groups: 0 (13.5%), I (40.6%), II (38.3%), and III (7.5%). The histologic subtypes of the primary tumor were invasive ductal carcinoma (74.4%), invasive lobular carcinoma (12.0%), and DCIS alone (13.5%). Residual carcinoma was present in the re-excision and completion mastectomy specimens in 55.4%, 14.3%, and 7.2% of women with an involved, close, and negative margin, respectively. In the 77 women with a noninvolved radial margin, the MRE of residual disease, if present, was {<=}10 mm in 97.4% (95% confidence interval 91.6-99.5) of cases. Larger MRE measurements were significantly associated with an involved margin (P<.001), tumor size >30 mm (P=.03), premenopausal status (P=.03), and negative progesterone receptor status (P=.05). Conclusions: A clinical target volume margin of 10 mm would encompass microscopic residual disease in >90% of women potentially eligible for PBRT after WLE with noninvolved resection margins.

  15. Mammographic quantitative image analysis and biologic image composition for breast lesion characterization and classification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drukker, Karen Giger, Maryellen L.; Li, Hui; Duewer, Fred; Malkov, Serghei; Joe, Bonnie; Kerlikowske, Karla; Shepherd, John A.; Flowers, Chris I.; Drukteinis, Jennifer S.

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: To investigate whether biologic image composition of mammographic lesions can improve upon existing mammographic quantitative image analysis (QIA) in estimating the probability of malignancy. Methods: The study population consisted of 45 breast lesions imaged with dual-energy mammography prior to breast biopsy with final diagnosis resulting in 10 invasive ductal carcinomas, 5 ductal carcinomain situ, 11 fibroadenomas, and 19 other benign diagnoses. Analysis was threefold: (1) The raw low-energy mammographic images were analyzed with an established in-house QIA method, QIA alone, (2) the three-compartment breast (3CB) composition measurederived from the dual-energy mammographyof water, lipid, and protein thickness were assessed, 3CB alone, and (3) information from QIA and 3CB was combined, QIA + 3CB. Analysis was initiated from radiologist-indicated lesion centers and was otherwise fully automated. Steps of the QIA and 3CB methods were lesion segmentation, characterization, and subsequent classification for malignancy in leave-one-case-out cross-validation. Performance assessment included box plots, BlandAltman plots, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for distinguishing between benign and malignant lesions (invasive and DCIS) was 0.81 (standard error 0.07) for the QIA alone method, 0.72 (0.07) for 3CB alone method, and 0.86 (0.04) for QIA+3CB combined. The difference in AUC was 0.043 between QIA + 3CB and QIA alone but failed to reach statistical significance (95% confidence interval [0.17 to + 0.26]). Conclusions: In this pilot study analyzing the new 3CB imaging modality, knowledge of the composition of breast lesions and their periphery appeared additive in combination with existing mammographic QIA methods for the distinction between different benign and malignant lesion types.

  16. Impact of Screening and Risk Factors for Local Recurrence and Survival After Conservative Surgery and Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer: Results From a Large Series With Long-Term Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kunkler, Ian H.; Kerr, Gillian R.; Thomas, Jeremy S.; Jack, Wilma J.L.; Bartlett, John M.S.; Pedersen, Hans C.; Cameron, David A.; Dixon, J. Michael; Chetty, Udi

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: To investigate conventional prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), distant metastasis (DM), and survival after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in screen-detected and symptomatic cases on surveillance up to 25 years. Patients and Methods: A total of 1812 consecutive patients in three cohorts (1981-1989, 1990-1992, and 1993-1998) with T12N01M0 invasive breast cancer were treated with BCT (median follow-up, 14 years). Tumor type and grade were reviewed by a single pathologist. Hormone receptor status was measured by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent prognostic variables for relapse and survival. Results: A total of 205 IBTR occurred, with 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year actuarial relapse rates of 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.35-5.5%), 8.4% (95% CI 7.1-9.8%), 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16%), and 17.4% (95% CI 14.5-20.2%). Number of nodes, young age, pathologic tumor size, and multifocality were significant factors for IBTR. Three hundred seventy-eight patients developed DM. The actuarial metastatic rate was 12% at 5 years and 17.9% at 10 years. Young age, number of positive nodes, pathologic tumor size, and tumor grade were significant factors for DM relapse. When conventional prognostic indices were taken into account screen-detected cancers showed no improvement in overall relapse or survival rate compared with symptomatic cases but did show a reduced risk of DM after IBTR. After 10 years IBTR relapse continued at a constant rate of 0.87% per annum. Conclusions: The Edinburgh BCT series has shown that screen-detected invasive breast cancers do not have significantly different clinical outcomes compared with symptomatic cases when pathologic risk factors are taken into account. This suggests that these patients be managed in a similar way.

  17. Predicting the Risk of Secondary Lung Malignancies Associated With Whole-Breast Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ng, John; Shuryak, Igor; Xu Yanguang; Clifford Chao, K.S.; Brenner, David J.; Burri, Ryan J.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: The risk of secondary lung malignancy (SLM) is a significant concern for women treated with whole-breast radiation therapy after breast-conserving surgery for early-stage breast cancer. In this study, a biologically based secondary malignancy model was used to quantify the risk of secondary lung malignancies (SLMs) associated with several common methods of delivering whole-breast radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Both supine and prone computed tomography simulations of 15 women with early breast cancer were used to generate standard fractionated and hypofractionated whole-breast RT treatment plans for each patient. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of the ipsilateral breast and lung were calculated for each patient on each plan. A model of spontaneous and radiation-induced carcinogenesis was used to determine the relative risks of SLMs for the different treatment techniques. Results: A higher risk of SLMs was predicted for supine breast irradiation when compared with prone breast irradiation for both the standard fractionation and hypofractionation schedules (relative risk [RR] = 2.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.30-2.88, and RR = 2.68, 95% CI = 2.39-2.98, respectively). No difference in risk of SLMs was noted between standard fractionation and hypofractionation schedules in either the supine position (RR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.97-1.14) or the prone position (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.88-1.15). Conclusions: Compared with supine whole-breast irradiation, prone breast irradiation is associated with a significantly lower predicted risk of secondary lung malignancy. In this modeling study, fractionation schedule did not have an impact on the risk of SLMs in women treated with whole-breast RT for early breast cancer.

  18. High-throughput prediction of Acacia and eucalypt lignin syringyl/guaiacyl content using FT-Raman spectroscopy and partial least squares modeling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lupoi, Jason S.; Healey, Adam; Singh, Seema; Sykes, Robert; Davis, Mark; Lee, David J.; Shepherd, Merv; Simmons, Blake A.; Henry, Robert J.

    2015-01-16

    High-throughput techniques are necessary to efficiently screen potential lignocellulosic feedstocks for the production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and bio-based materials, thereby reducing experimental time and expense while supplanting tedious, destructive methods. The ratio of lignin syringyl (S) to guaiacyl (G) monomers has been routinely quantified as a way to probe biomass recalcitrance. Mid-infrared and Raman spectroscopy have been demonstrated to produce robust partial least squares models for the prediction of lignin S/G ratios in a diverse group of Acacia and eucalypt trees. The most accurate Raman model has now been used to predict the S/G ratio from 269 unknown Acaciamore » and eucalypt feedstocks. This study demonstrates the application of a partial least squares model composed of Raman spectral data and lignin S/G ratios measured using pyrolysis/molecular beam mass spectrometry (pyMBMS) for the prediction of S/G ratios in an unknown data set. The predicted S/G ratios calculated by the model were averaged according to plant species, and the means were not found to differ from the pyMBMS ratios when evaluating the mean values of each method within the 95 % confidence interval. Pairwise comparisons within each data set were employed to assess statistical differences between each biomass species. While some pairwise appraisals failed to differentiate between species, Acacias, in both data sets, clearly display significant differences in their S/G composition which distinguish them from eucalypts. In conclusion, this research shows the power of using Raman spectroscopy to supplant tedious, destructive methods for the evaluation of the lignin S/G ratio of diverse plant biomass materials.« less

  19. High-throughput prediction of Acacia and eucalypt lignin syringyl/guaiacyl content using FT-Raman spectroscopy and partial least squares modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lupoi, Jason S.; Healey, Adam; Singh, Seema; Sykes, Robert; Davis, Mark; Lee, David J.; Shepherd, Merv; Simmons, Blake A.; Henry, Robert J.

    2015-01-16

    High-throughput techniques are necessary to efficiently screen potential lignocellulosic feedstocks for the production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and bio-based materials, thereby reducing experimental time and expense while supplanting tedious, destructive methods. The ratio of lignin syringyl (S) to guaiacyl (G) monomers has been routinely quantified as a way to probe biomass recalcitrance. Mid-infrared and Raman spectroscopy have been demonstrated to produce robust partial least squares models for the prediction of lignin S/G ratios in a diverse group of Acacia and eucalypt trees. The most accurate Raman model has now been used to predict the S/G ratio from 269 unknown Acacia and eucalypt feedstocks. This study demonstrates the application of a partial least squares model composed of Raman spectral data and lignin S/G ratios measured using pyrolysis/molecular beam mass spectrometry (pyMBMS) for the prediction of S/G ratios in an unknown data set. The predicted S/G ratios calculated by the model were averaged according to plant species, and the means were not found to differ from the pyMBMS ratios when evaluating the mean values of each method within the 95 % confidence interval. Pairwise comparisons within each data set were employed to assess statistical differences between each biomass species. While some pairwise appraisals failed to differentiate between species, Acacias, in both data sets, clearly display significant differences in their S/G composition which distinguish them from eucalypts. In conclusion, this research shows the power of using Raman spectroscopy to supplant tedious, destructive methods for the evaluation of the lignin S/G ratio of diverse plant biomass materials.

  20. Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 ; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

    2014-03-28

    In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-coupled- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the BortzKalosLebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary MATLAB

  1. The utility of web mining for epidemiological research: studying the association between parity and cancer risk [Web Mining for Epidemiological Research. Assessing its Utility in Exploring the Association Between Parity and Cancer Risk

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tourassi, Georgia; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Xu, Songhua; Han, Xuesong

    2015-11-27

    Background: The World Wide Web has emerged as a powerful data source for epidemiological studies related to infectious disease surveillance. However, its potential for cancer-related epidemiological discoveries is largely unexplored. Methods: Using advanced web crawling and tailored information extraction procedures we automatically collected and analyzed the text content of 79,394 online obituary articles published between 1998 and 2014. The collected data included 51,911 cancer (27,330 breast; 9,470 lung; 6,496 pancreatic; 6,342 ovarian; 2,273 colon) and 27,483 non-cancer cases. With the derived information, we replicated a case-control study design to investigate the association between parity and cancer risk. Age-adjusted odds ratiosmore » (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each cancer type and compared to those reported in large-scale epidemiological studies. Results: Parity was found to be associated with a significantly reduced risk of breast cancer (OR=0.78, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.82), pancreatic cancer (OR=0.78, 95% CI = 0.72 to 0.83), colon cancer (OR=0.67, 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74), and ovarian cancer (OR=0.58, 95% CI = 0.54 to 0.62). Marginal association was found for lung cancer prevalence (OR=0.87, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.92). The linear trend between multi-parity and reduced cancer risk was dramatically more pronounced for breast and ovarian cancer than the other cancers included in the analysis. Conclusion: This large web-mining study on parity and cancer risk produced findings very similar to those reported with traditional observational studies. It may be used as a promising strategy to generate study hypotheses for guiding and prioritizing future epidemiological studies.« less

  2. Acute changes in pulse pressure in relation to constituents of particulate air pollution in elderly persons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, Lotte; Buczynska, Anna; Walgraeve, Christophe; Delcloo, Andy; Potgieter-Vermaak, Sanja; Van Grieken, Rene; Demeestere, Kristof; Dewulf, Jo; Van Langenhove, Herman; De Backer, Hugo; Nemery, Benoit; Nawrot, Tim S.

    2012-08-15

    An increased pulse pressure (difference between systolic and diastolic blood pressure) suggests aortic stiffening. The objective of this study was to examine the acute effects of both particulate matter (PM) mass and composition on blood pressure, among elderly persons. We carried out a panel study in persons living in elderly homes in Antwerp, Belgium. We recruited 88 non-smoking persons, 70% women with a mean age of 83 years (standard deviation: 5.2). Blood pressure was measured and a blood sample was collected on two time points, which were chosen so that there was an exposure contrast in ambient PM exposure. The elemental content of the collected indoor and outdoor PM{sub 2.5} (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 {mu}m) mass concentration was measured. Oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (oxy-PAHs) on outdoor PM{sub 10} (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 {mu}m) were measured. Each interquartile range increase of 20.8 {mu}g/m Superscript-Three in 24-h mean outdoor PM{sub 2.5} was associated with an increase in pulse pressure of 4.0 mmHg (95% confidence interval: 1.8-6.2), in persons taking antihypertensive medication (n=57), but not in persons not using antihypertensive medication (n=31) (p for interaction: 0.02). Vanadium, iron and nickel contents of PM{sub 2.5} were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, among persons on antihypertensive medication. Similar results were found for indoor concentrations. Of the oxy-PAHs, chrysene-5,6-dione and benzo[a]pyrene-3,6-dione were significantly associated with increases in systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure. In elderly, pulse pressure was positively associated with acute increases in outdoor and indoor air pollution, among persons taking antihypertensive medication. These results might form a mechanistic pathway linking air pollution as a trigger of cardiovascular events.

  3. Differences in urine cadmium associations with kidney outcomes based on serum creatinine and cystatin C

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, Virginia M.; Kim, Nam-Soo; Lee, Byung-Kook; Parsons, Patrick J.; Spector, June; Fadrowski, Jeffrey; Jaar, Bernard G.; Steuerwald, Amy J.; Todd, Andrew C.; and others

    2011-11-15

    Cadmium is a well-known nephrotoxicant; chronic exposure increases risk for chronic kidney disease. Recently, however, associations between urine cadmium and higher creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) have been reported. Analyses utilizing alternate biomarkers of kidney function allow evaluation of potential mechanisms for these observations. We compared associations of urine cadmium with kidney function measures based on serum cystatin C to those with serum creatinine in 712 lead workers. Mean (standard deviation) molybdenum-corrected urine cadmium, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) eGFR and multi-variable cystatin C eGFR were 1.02 (0.65) {mu}g/g creatinine, and 97.4 (19.2) and 112.0 (17.7) mL/min/1.73 m{sup 2}, respectively. The eGFR measures were moderately correlated (r{sub s}=0.5; p<0.001). After adjustment, ln (urine cadmium) was not associated with serum cystatin-C-based measures. However, higher ln (urine cadmium) was associated with higher creatinine-based eGFRs including the MDRD and an equation incorporating serum cystatin C and creatinine (beta-coefficient=4.1 mL/min/1.73 m{sup 2}; 95% confidence interval=1.6, 6.6). Urine creatinine was associated with serum creatinine-based but not cystatin-C-based eGFRs. These results support a biomarker-specific, rather than a kidney function, effect underlying the associations observed between higher urine cadmium and creatinine-based kidney function measures. Given the routine use of serum and urine creatinine in kidney and biomarker research, additional research to elucidate the mechanism(s) for these associations is essential.

  4. Elevated lactate dehydrogenase activity and increased cardiovascular mortality in the arsenic-endemic areas of southwestern Taiwan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liao, Ya-Tang; Chen, Chien-Jen; Li, Wan-Fen; Hsu, Ling-I; Tsai, Li-Yu; Huang, Yeou-Lih; Sun, Chien-Wen; Chen, Wei J.; Wang, Shu-Li

    2012-08-01

    Arsenic ingestion has been linked to increasing global prevalence of and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD); arsenic can be removed from drinking water to reduce related health effects. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is used for the evaluation of acute arsenic toxicity in vivo and in vitro, but it is not validated for the evaluation of long-term, chronic arsenic exposure. The present study examined the long-term effect of chronic arsenic exposure on CVD and serum LDH levels, after consideration of arsenic metabolism capacity. A total of 380 subjects from an arseniasis-endemic area and 303 from a non-endemic area of southwestern Taiwan were recruited in 2002. Various urinary arsenic species were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and hydride generation systems. Fasting serum was used for quantitative determination of the total LDH activity. A significant dose–response relationship was observed between arsenic exposure and LDH elevation, independent of urinary arsenic profiles (P < 0.001). Furthermore, abnormal LDH elevation was associated with CVD mortality after adjustment for Framingham risk scores for 10-year CVD and arsenic exposure (hazard ratio, 3.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–14.81). LDH was elevated in subjects with arsenic exposure in a dose-dependent manner. LDH is a marker of arsenic toxicity associated with CVD mortality. Results of this study have important implications for use in ascertaining long-term arsenic exposure risk of CVD. -- Highlights: ► We showed that arsenic exposure was correlated with LDH elevation. ► LDH elevation was related to arsenic methylation capacity. ► Abnormal LDH elevation can be a marker of susceptibility to CVD mortality.

  5. Risk of Leptomeningeal Disease in Patients Treated With Stereotactic Radiosurgery Targeting the Postoperative Resection Cavity for Brain Metastases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atalar, Banu; Modlin, Leslie A.; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Adler, John R.; Gibbs, Iris C.; Chang, Steven D.; Harsh, Griffith R.; Li, Gordon; Nagpal, Seema; Hanlon, Alexandra; Soltys, Scott G.

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: We sought to determine the risk of leptomeningeal disease (LMD) in patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) targeting the postsurgical resection cavity of a brain metastasis, deferring whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in all patients. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 175 brain metastasis resection cavities in 165 patients treated from 1998 to 2011 with postoperative SRS. The cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, of LMD, local failure (LF), and distant brain parenchymal failure (DF) were estimated. Variables associated with LMD were evaluated, including LF, DF, posterior fossa location, resection type (en-bloc vs piecemeal or unknown), and histology (lung, colon, breast, melanoma, gynecologic, other). Results: With a median follow-up of 12 months (range, 1-157 months), median overall survival was 17 months. Twenty-one of 165 patients (13%) developed LMD at a median of 5 months (range, 2-33 months) following SRS. The 1-year cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, were 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%-15%) for developing LF, 54% (95% CI, 46%-61%) for DF, and 11% (95% CI, 7%-17%) for LMD. On univariate analysis, only breast cancer histology (hazard ratio, 2.96) was associated with an increased risk of LMD. The 1-year cumulative incidence of LMD was 24% (95% CI, 9%-41%) for breast cancer compared to 9% (95% CI, 5%-14%) for non-breast histology (P=.004). Conclusions: In patients treated with SRS targeting the postoperative cavity following resection, those with breast cancer histology were at higher risk of LMD. It is unknown whether the inclusion of whole-brain irradiation or novel strategies such as preresection SRS would improve this risk or if the rate of LMD is inherently higher with breast histology.

  6. Risk of Hippocampal Metastases in Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients at Presentation and After Cranial Irradiation: A Safety Profile Study for Hippocampal Sparing During Prophylactic or Therapeutic Cranial Irradiation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kundapur, Vijayananda; Ellchuk, Tasha; Ahmed, Shahid; Gondi, Vinai

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: Neurocognitive impairment (NI) in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) after whole brain radiation treatment (WBRT) is a significant cause of morbidity. Hippocampal avoidance (HA) during WBRT may mitigate or prevent NI in such patients. However, this has not been tested in SCLC patients. The estimated risk of metastases in the HA region (HM) in patients with SCLC at diagnosis or after WBRT is unknown. Our study aimed to determine the risk of HM in patients with SCLC and to assess correlated clinical factors. Methods and Materials: Patients with SCLC who experienced brain metastases (BM) at presentation (de novo) or after WBRT treated at the Saskatoon Cancer Centre between 2005 and 2012 were studied. Relevant neuroimaging was independently reviewed by a neuroradiologist. HM was defined as metastases within 5 mm of the hippocampus. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess correlation between various clinical variables and HM. Results: Seventy eligible patients were identified. Of 59 patients presenting with de novo BM, 3 patients (5%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0%-10.7%) had HM. Collectively there were 359 (range, 1-33) de novo BM with 3 (0.8%, 95% CI: 0%-1.7%) HM deposits. Twenty patients experienced progression of metastatic disease in the brain after WBRT. Of the 20 patients, only 1 patient (5%, 95% CI: 0%-14.5%) experienced HM. On logistic regression, no factors significantly correlated with HM. Conclusion: The overall incidence of HM before or after WBRT in SCLC patients is low, providing preliminary support for the safety of HA during planned clinical trials of HA-WBRT for SCLC.

  7. Clinical and Dosimetric Predictors of Acute Severe Lymphopenia During Radiation Therapy and Concurrent Temozolomide for High-Grade Glioma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Jiayi; DeWees, Todd A.; Badiyan, Shahed N.; Speirs, Christina K.; Mullen, Daniel F.; Fergus, Sandra; Tran, David D.; Linette, Gerry; Campian, Jian L.; Chicoine, Michael R.; Kim, Albert H.; Dunn, Gavin; Simpson, Joseph R.; Robinson, Clifford G.

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: Acute severe lymphopenia (ASL) frequently develops during radiation therapy (RT) and concurrent temozolomide (TMZ) for high-grade glioma (HGG) and is associated with decreased survival. The current study was designed to identify potential predictors of ASL, with a focus on actionable RT-specific dosimetric parameters. Methods and Materials: From January 2007 to December 2012, 183 patients with HGG were treated with RT+TMZ and had available data including total lymphocyte count (TLC) and radiation dose-volume histogram parameters. ASL was defined as TLC of <500/μL within the first 3 months from the start of RT. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most important predictors of ASL. Results: Fifty-three patients (29%) developed ASL. Patients with ASL had significantly worse overall survival than those without (median: 12.5 vs 20.2 months, respectively, P<.001). Stepwise logistic regression analysis identified female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 5.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.46-11.41), older age (OR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.09), lower baseline TLC (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.98), and higher brain volume receiving 25 Gy (V{sub 25Gy}) (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.003-1.05) as the most significant predictors for ASL. Brain V{sub 25Gy} <56% appeared to be the optimal threshold (OR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.11-5.01), with an ASL rate of 38% versus 20% above and below this threshold, respectively (P=.006). Conclusions: Female sex, older age, lower baseline TLC, and higher brain V{sub 25Gy} are significant predictors of ASL during RT+TMZ therapy for HGG. Maintaining the V{sub 25Gy} of brain below 56% may reduce the risk of ASL.

  8. Repeat Courses of Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS), Deferring Whole-Brain Irradiation, for New Brain Metastases After Initial SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shultz, David B.; Modlin, Leslie A.; Jayachandran, Priya; Von Eyben, Rie; Gibbs, Iris C.; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Chang, Steven D.; Harsh, Griffith R.; Li, Gordon; Adler, John R.; Hancock, Steven L.; Soltys, Scott G.

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To report the outcomes of repeat stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), deferring whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT), for distant intracranial recurrences and identify factors associated with prolonged overall survival (OS). Patients and Methods: We retrospectively identified 652 metastases in 95 patients treated with 2 or more courses of SRS for brain metastases, deferring WBRT. Cox regression analyzed factors predictive for OS. Results: Patients had a median of 2 metastases (range, 1-14) treated per course, with a median of 2 courses (range, 2-14) of SRS per patient. With a median follow-up after first SRS of 15 months (range, 3-98 months), the median OS from the time of the first and second course of SRS was 18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 15-24) and 11 months (95% CI 6-17), respectively. On multivariate analysis, histology, graded prognostic assessment score, aggregate tumor volume (but not number of metastases), and performance status correlated with OS. The 1-year cumulative incidence, with death as a competing risk, of local failure was 5% (95% CI 4-8%). Eighteen (24%) of 75 deaths were from neurologic causes. Nineteen patients (20%) eventually received WBRT. Adverse radiation events developed in 2% of SRS sites. Conclusion: Multiple courses of SRS, deferring WBRT, for distant brain metastases after initial SRS, seem to be a safe and effective approach. The graded prognostic assessment score, updated at each course, and aggregate tumor volume may help select patients in whom the deferral of WBRT might be most beneficial.

  9. Incidence of Leukoencephalopathy After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy for Brain Metastases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ebi, Junko; Sato, Hisashi; Nakajima, Masaru; Shishido, Fumio

    2013-04-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the incidence of leukoencephalopathy after whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in patients with brain metastases. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 111 patients who underwent WBRT for brain metastases from April 2001 through March 2008 and had evaluable computed tomography (CT) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at least 1 month after completion of WBRT. We evaluated the leukoencephalopathy according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. The patients who had brain tumor recurrence after WBRT were censored at the last follow-up CT or MRI without recurrence. To evaluate the risk factors for leukoencephalopathy, bivariate analysis was performed using a logistic regression analysis adjusted for follow-up time. Factors included in the analysis were age, gender, dose fractionation, 5-fluorouracil, methotrexate, cisplatin, and other chemotherapeutic agents. Results: The median age of the 111 patients was 60.0 years (range, 23-89 years). The median follow-up was 3.8 months (range, 1.0-38.1 months). Leukoencephalopathy developed in 23 of the 111 patients. Grades 1, 2, and 3 were observed in 8, 7, and 8 patients, respectively. The incidence was 34.4% (11 of 32), 42.9% (6 of 14), 66.7% (2 of 3), and 100% (2 of 2) of the patients who were followed up for ≥6, ≥12, ≥24, and ≥36 months, respectively. In the bivariate analysis, older age (≥65 years) was significantly correlated with higher risk of leukoencephalopathy (odds ratio 3.31; 95% confidence interval 1.15-9.50; P=.03). Conclusions: The incidence of leukoencephalopathy after WBRT was 34.4% with ≥6 months follow-up, and increased with longer follow-up. Older age was a significant risk factor. The schedule of WBRT for patients with brain metastases should be carefully determined, especially for favorable patients.

  10. Simulation of CO2 Sequestration at Rock Spring Uplift, Wyoming: Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Storage Capacity, Injectivity and Leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Hailin; Dai, Zhenxue; Jiao, Zunsheng; Stauffer, Philip H.; Surdam, Ronald C.

    2011-01-01

    Many geological, geochemical, geomechanical and hydrogeological factors control CO{sub 2} storage in subsurface. Among them heterogeneity in saline aquifer can seriously influence design of injection wells, CO{sub 2} injection rate, CO{sub 2} plume migration, storage capacity, and potential leakage and risk assessment. This study applies indicator geostatistics, transition probability and Markov chain model at the Rock Springs Uplift, Wyoming generating facies-based heterogeneous fields for porosity and permeability in target saline aquifer (Pennsylvanian Weber sandstone) and surrounding rocks (Phosphoria, Madison and cap-rock Chugwater). A multiphase flow simulator FEHM is then used to model injection of CO{sub 2} into the target saline aquifer involving field-scale heterogeneity. The results reveal that (1) CO{sub 2} injection rates in different injection wells significantly change with local permeability distributions; (2) brine production rates in different pumping wells are also significantly impacted by the spatial heterogeneity in permeability; (3) liquid pressure evolution during and after CO{sub 2} injection in saline aquifer varies greatly for different realizations of random permeability fields, and this has potential important effects on hydraulic fracturing of the reservoir rock, reactivation of pre-existing faults and the integrity of the cap-rock; (4) CO{sub 2} storage capacity estimate for Rock Springs Uplift is 6614 {+-} 256 Mt at 95% confidence interval, which is about 36% of previous estimate based on homogeneous and isotropic storage formation; (5) density profiles show that the density of injected CO{sub 2} below 3 km is close to that of the ambient brine with given geothermal gradient and brine concentration, which indicates CO{sub 2} plume can sink to the deep before reaching thermal equilibrium with brine. Finally, we present uncertainty analysis of CO{sub 2} leakage into overlying formations due to heterogeneity in both the target saline

  11. Results of the Phase I Dose-Escalating Study of Motexafin Gadolinium With Standard Radiotherapy in Patients With Glioblastoma Multiforme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ford, Judith M. Seiferheld, Wendy; Alger, Jeffrey R.; Wu, Genevieve; Endicott, Thyra J.; Mehta, Minesh; Curran, Walter; Phan, See-Chun

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: Motexafin gadolinium (MGd) is a putative radiation enhancer initially evaluated in patients with brain metastases. This Phase I trial studied the safety and tolerability of a 2-6-week course (10-22 doses) of MGd with radiotherapy for glioblastoma multiforme. Methods and Materials: A total of 33 glioblastoma multiforme patients received one of seven MGd regimens starting at 10 doses of 4 mg/kg/d MGd and escalating to 22 doses of 5.3 mg/kg/d MGd (5 or 10 daily doses then three times per week). The National Cancer Institute Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program toxicity and stopping rules were applied. Results: The maximal tolerated dose was 5.0 mg/kg/d MGd (5 d/wk for 2 weeks, then three times per week) for 22 doses. The dose-limiting toxicity was reversible transaminase elevation. Adverse reactions included rash/pruritus (45%), chills/fever (30%), and self-limiting vesiculobullous rash of the thumb and fingers (42%). The median survival of 17.6 months prompted a case-matched analysis. In the case-matched analysis, the MGd patients had a median survival of 16.1 months (n = 31) compared with the matched Radiation Therapy Oncology Group database patients with a median survival of 11.8 months (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.94). Conclusion: The maximal tolerated dose of MGd with radiotherapy for glioblastoma multiforme in this study was 5 mg/kg/d for 22 doses (daily for 2 weeks, then three times weekly). The baseline survival calculations suggest progression to Phase II trials is appropriate, with the addition of MGd to radiotherapy with concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide.

  12. Arsenic-related skin lesions and glutathione S-transferase P1 A1578G (lle105Val) polymorphism in two ethnic clans exposed to indoor combustion of high arsenic coal in one village

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, G.F.; Du, H.; Chen, J.G.; Lu, H.C.; Guo, W.C.; Meng, H.; Zhang, T.B.; Zhang, X.J.; Lu, D.R.; Golka, K.; Shen, J.H. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai (China)

    2006-12-15

    A total of 2402 patients with arsenic-related skin lesions, such as hyperkeratosis, hyperpigmentation or hypopigmentation, or even skin cancer in a few villages in Southwest Guizhou Autonomous Prefecture, China represent a unique case of endemic arsenism related with indoor combustion of high arsenic coal. This study aimed to investigate the cluster of arsenism cases and the possible relevant factors including GSTP1 polymorphism in two clans of different ethnic origin living in one village for generations. Arsenism morbidity in Miao clan P was significantly lower than in the neighbouring Han clan G1 (5.9 vs. 32.7%, odds ratio (OR)=0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06-0.27, P < 0.0001). No sex differences were confirmed inside both clans. Analyses of the environmental samples indicated that Miao clan P members were exposed to higher amounts of arsenic via inhalation and food ingestion. Hair and urine samples also proved a higher arsenic body burden in ethnic Miao individuals. No corresponding differences by sex were found. Higher frequencies of combined mutant genotype G/G1578 and A/G1578 (OR=4.72, 95% CI: 2.34-9.54, P < 0.0001) and of mutant allele G1578 (OR=3.22, 95% CI: 2.00-5.18, P < 0.0001) were detected in diagnosed arsenism patients than in non-diseased individuals. The Miao individuals showed a lower percentage of combined mutant genotypes (30.6 vs. 52.7%, OR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.19-0.84, P=0.015) as well as of mutant allele G1578 (OR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.24-0.88, P=0.017) than their Han neighbours. Conclusions Genetic predisposition influences dermal arsenism toxicity. The GSTP1 A1578G (IIe105Val) status might be a susceptibility factor for arsenic-related skin lesions.

  13. Impact of Neoadjuvant Radiation on Survival in Stage III Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koshy, Matthew, E-mail: mkoshy@umm.ed [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine and University of Maryland Marlene and Stewart Greenebaum Cancer Center, Baltimore, MD (United States); Goloubeva, Olga; Suntharalingam, Mohan [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine and University of Maryland Marlene and Stewart Greenebaum Cancer Center, Baltimore, MD (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Purpose: The role of surgery in Stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is controversial. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of neoadjuvant radiation therapy for Stage III NSCLC. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database that included patients who were 18 years and older with NSCLC classified as Stage III and who underwent definitive therapy from 1988 to 2004. Patients were characterized by type of treatment received. Survival functions were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression model was used to analyze trends in overall (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). Results: A total of 48,131 patients were selected, with a median follow-up of 10 months (range, 0-203 months). By type of treatment, the 3-year OS was 10% with radiation therapy (RT), 37% with surgery (S), 34% with surgery and postoperative radiation (S-RT), and 45% with neoadjuvant radiation followed by surgery (Neo-RT) (p = 0.0001). Multivariable Cox model identified sex, race, laterality, T stage, N stage, and type of treatment as factors affecting survival. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for other variables in regression model showed the types of treatment: S (HR, 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.4), S-RT (HR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3), and RT (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.15-2.53) were associated with significantly worse overall survival when compared with Neo-RT (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: This population based study demonstrates that patients with Stage III NSCLC receiving Neo-RT had significantly improved overall survival when compared with other treatment groups.

  14. Lead, mercury, and cadmium exposure and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Stephani [Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH 45267 (United States)] [Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH 45267 (United States); Arora, Monica [Department of Psychiatry, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, NE 68131 (United States)] [Department of Psychiatry, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, NE 68131 (United States); Fernandez, Cristina [Department of Pediatrics, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, NE 68131 (United States)] [Department of Pediatrics, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, NE 68131 (United States); Landero, Julio; Caruso, Joseph [Metallomics Center, Department of Chemistry, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221 (United States)] [Metallomics Center, Department of Chemistry, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221 (United States); Chen, Aimin, E-mail: aimin.chen@uc.edu [Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH 45267 (United States)] [Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH 45267 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Background: There is limited research examining the relationship between lead (Pb) exposure and medically diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children. The role of mercury (Hg) and cadmium (Cd) exposures in ADHD development is even less clear. Objectives: To examine the relationship between Pb, Hg, and Cd and ADHD in children living inside and outside a Lead Investigation Area (LIA) of a former lead refinery in Omaha, NE. Methods: We carried out a case-control study with 71 currently medically diagnosed ADHD cases and 58 controls from a psychiatric clinic and a pediatric clinic inside and outside of the LIA. The participants were matched on age group (58, 912 years), sex, race (African American or Caucasians and others), and location (inside or outside LIA). We measured whole blood Pb, total Hg, and Cd using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Results: Inside the LIA, the 27 cases had blood Pb geometric mean (GM) 1.89 g/dL and the 41 controls had 1.51 g/dL. Outside the LIA, the 44 cases had blood Pb GM 1.02 g/dL while the 17 controls had 0.97 g/dL. After adjustment for matching variables and maternal smoking, socioeconomic status, and environmental tobacco exposure, each natural log unit blood Pb had an odds ratio of 2.52 with 95% confidence interval of 1.075.92. Stratification by the LIA indicated similar point estimate but wider CIs. No associations were observed for Hg or Cd. Conclusions: Postnatal Pb exposure may be associated with higher risk of clinical ADHD, but not the postnatal exposure to Hg or Cd. -- Highlights: Blood Pb levels are associated with ADHD diagnosis in children. No association was found between blood Cd or Hg levels and ADHD. Children living close to hazardous waste site need to reduce metal exposure.

  15. A Prognostic Index for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Minor Salivary Gland Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lloyd, Shane; Yu, James B. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Ross, Douglas A. [Department of Surgery, St. Vincent's Medical Center, Bridgeport, CT (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Decker, Roy H., E-mail: roy.decker@yale.ed [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Purpose: Large studies examining the clinical and pathological factors associated with nodal metastasis in minor salivary gland cancer are lacking in the literature. Methods and Materials: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified 2,667 minor salivary gland cancers with known lymph node status from 1988 to 2004. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with the use of neck dissection, the use of external beam radiation therapy, and the presence of cervical lymph node metastases. Results: Four hundred twenty-six (16.0%) patients had neck nodal involvement. Factors associated with neck nodal involvement on univariate analysis included increasing age, male sex, increasing tumor size, high tumor grade, T3-T4 stage, adenocarcinoma or mucoepidermoid carcinomas, and pharyngeal site of primary malignancy. On multivariate analysis, four statistically significant factors were identified, including male sex, T3-T4 stage, pharyngeal site of primary malignancy, and high-grade adenocarcinoma or high-grade mucoepidermoid carcinomas. The proportions (and 95% confidence intervals) of patients with lymph node involvement for those with 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 of these prognostic factors were 0.02 (0.01-0.03), 0.09 (0.07-0.11), 0.17 (0.14-0.21), 0.41 (0.33-0.49), and 0.70 (0.54-0.85), respectively. Grade was a significant predictor of metastasis for adenocarcinoma and mucoepidermoid carcinoma but not for adenoid cystic carcinoma. Conclusions: A prognostic index using the four clinicopathological factors listed here can effectively differentiate patients into risk groups of nodal metastasis. The precision of this index is subject to the limitations of SEER data and should be validated in further clinical studies.

  16. Bladder Preservation for Localized Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: The Survival Impact of Local Utilization Rates of Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kozak, Kevin R.; Hamidi, Maryam [Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Manning, Matthew [Division of Radiation Oncology, Moses Cone Regional Cancer Center, Greensboro, North Carolina (United States); Moody, John S., E-mail: john.moody@mosescone.com [Division of Radiation Oncology, Moses Cone Regional Cancer Center, Greensboro, North Carolina (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: This study examines the management and outcomes of muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the United States. Methods and Materials: Patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were classified according to three mutually exclusive treatment categories based on the primary initial treatment: no local management, radiotherapy, or surgery. Overall survival was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models based on multiple factors including treatment utilization patterns. Results: The study population consisted of 26,851 patients. Age, sex, race, tumor grade, histology, and geographic location were associated with differences in treatment (all p < 0.01). Patients receiving definitive radiotherapy tended to be older and have less differentiated tumors than patients undergoing surgery (RT, median age 78 years old and 90.6% grade 3/4 tumors; surgery, median age 71 years old and 77.1% grade 3/4 tumors). No large shifts in treatment were seen over time, with most patients managed with surgical resection (86.3% for overall study population). Significant survival differences were observed according to initial treatment: median survival, 14 months with no definitive local treatment; 17 months with radiotherapy; and 43 months for surgery. On multivariate analysis, differences in local utilization rates of definitive radiotherapy did not demonstrate a significant effect on overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.999-1.005). Conclusions: Multiple factors influence the initial treatment strategy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, but definitive radiotherapy continues to be used infrequently. Although patients who undergo surgery fare better, a multivariable model that accounted for patient and tumor characteristics found no survival detriment to the utilization of definitive radiotherapy. These results support continued

  17. Predictors of Postoperative Complications After Trimodality Therapy for Esophageal Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Jingya [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wei, Caimiao [Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tucker, Susan L. [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Myles, Bevan; Palmer, Matthew [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Hofstetter, Wayne L.; Swisher, Stephen G. [Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Ajani, Jaffer A. [Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Cox, James D.; Komaki, Ritsuko; Liao, Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Lin, Steven H., E-mail: SHLin@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: While trimodality therapy for esophageal cancer has improved patient outcomes, surgical complication rates remain high. The goal of this study was to identify modifiable factors associated with postoperative complications after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1998 to 2011, 444 patients were treated at our institution with surgical resection after chemoradiation. Postoperative (pulmonary, gastrointestinal [GI], cardiac, wound healing) complications were recorded up to 30 days postoperatively. Kruskal-Wallis tests and ?{sup 2} or Fisher exact tests were used to assess associations between continuous and categorical variables. Multivariate logistic regression tested the association between perioperative complications and patient or treatment factors that were significant on univariate analysis. Results: The most frequent postoperative complications after trimodality therapy were pulmonary (25%) and GI (23%). Lung capacity and the type of radiation modality used were independent predictors of pulmonary and GI complications. After adjusting for confounding factors, pulmonary and GI complications were increased in patients treated with 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) versus intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT; odds ratio [OR], 2.018; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.104-3.688; OR, 1.704; 95% CI, 1.03-2.82, respectively) and for patients treated with 3D-CRT versus proton beam therapy (PBT; OR, 3.154; 95% CI, 1.365-7.289; OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 0.78-3.08, respectively). Mean lung radiation dose (MLD) was strongly associated with pulmonary complications, and the differences in toxicities seen for the radiation modalities could be fully accounted for by the MLD delivered by each of the modalities. Conclusions: The radiation modality used can be a strong mitigating factor of postoperative complications after neoadjuvant chemoradiation.

  18. Mitigation and Treatment of Radiation-Induced Thoracic Injury With a Cyclooxygenase-2 Inhibitor, Celecoxib

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunter, Nancy R.; Valdecanas, David [Department of Experimental Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Experimental Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao Zhongxing [Division of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Division of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Milas, Luka [Department of Experimental Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Experimental Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Thames, Howard D. [Department of Biostatistics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Biostatistics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mason, Kathy A., E-mail: kmason@mdanderson.org [Department of Experimental Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Purpose: To test whether a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor (celecoxib) could reduce mortality resulting from radiation-induced pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: Celecoxib was given to mice twice daily for 40 consecutive days starting on the day of local thoracic irradiation (LTI) or 40 or 80 days later. C3Hf/KamLaw mice were observed for morbidity, and time to death was determined. Results were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Timing of celecoxib relative to LTI determined efficacy. A significant reduction in time to death was achieved only when celecoxib was started 80 days after LTI, corresponding to the time when pneumonitis is expressed. For these mice the reduction in mortality was quantified as a hazard ratio for mortality of treated vs untreated of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.53), thus significantly less than 1.0. Correspondingly, the median lethal dose for treated mice (12.9 Gy; 95% CI 12.55-13.25 Gy) was significantly (P=.026) higher than for untreated mice (12.4 Gy; 95% CI 12.2-12.65 Gy). Conclusions: Celecoxib significantly reduced lung toxicity when administered months after LTI when the deleterious effects of radiation were expressed. The schedule-dependent reduction in fatal pneumonitis suggests that celecoxib could be clinically useful by reintroduction of treatment months after completion of radiation therapy. These findings may be important for designing clinical trials using cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors to treat radiation-induced lung toxicity as a complement to concurrent radiation therapy of lung cancers.

  19. Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D.; Rose, Brent S.; Wu, John; Noticewala, Sonal; McHale, Michael T.; Yashar, Catheryn M.; Vaida, Florin; Mell, Loren K.

    2014-07-15

    Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI)=1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (?), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.

  20. Analog morphocorrelation: new technique with implications for high-resolution absolute age dating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arnold, A.J.; Parker, W.C.; Berggren, W.A.

    1986-05-01

    The conventional approach to increased biostratigraphic resolution involves identifying additional datum planes defined by discrete events. Multivariate techniques used to refine a conventional taxonomic zonal scheme offer no improvement in precision; however, since the characters on which the zonal boundaries are based often show continuous stratigraphic variation, they offer an opportunity for continuous stratigraphic correlation based on the stage of evolution. Morphometric analysis was conducted on two lineages: (1) the Globorotalia cibaoensis-G. crassaformis linage, using a reference section from the early Pliocene of the Rio Grande rise, spanning approximately 2.6 m.y.; and (2) the G. conoidea-G.inflata lineage, using a reference section from the late Miocene to the Holocene from the southwest Pacific, spanning approximately 8 m.y. Stepwise multiple regression of morphologic variates generated an equation with an age-prediction precision (95% confidence) of +/- 122 k.y. in the G. crassaformis lineage and +/- 463 k.y. in the G conoidea lineage (accuracy depends on calibration of absolute dates in the reference section and our knowledge of sedimentation rates over the measured interval). Using single-equation analog morphocorrelation, any sample overlapped by the reference lineage can be correlated, which reduce the need for repeated sampling in a search for discrete events. The authors demonstrate that analysis of continuous morphologic variation can increase stratigraphic precision with a few carefully chosen variables, and that analog morpho-correlation can yield absolute dates, rather than relative dates with quantified error. Any disadvantages inherent in analog morphocorrelation are also found in conventional biostratigraphic techniques, but are usually unquantified and unrecognized.

  1. Development of microbial-enzyme-mediated decomposition model parameters through steady-state and dynamic analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Gangsheng; Post, Wilfred M; Mayes, Melanie

    2013-01-01

    We developed a Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition (MEND) model, based on the Michaelis-Menten kinetics, that describes the dynamics of physically defined pools of soil organic matter (SOC). These include particulate, mineral-associated, dissolved organic matter (POC, MOC, and DOC, respectively), microbial biomass, and associated exoenzymes. The ranges and/or distributions of parameters were determined by both analytical steady-state and dynamic analyses with SOC data from the literature. We used an improved multi-objective parameter sensitivity analysis (MOPSA) to identify the most important parameters for the full model: maintenance of microbial biomass, turnover and synthesis of enzymes, and carbon use efficiency (CUE). The model predicted an increase of 2 C (baseline temperature =12 C) caused the pools of POC-Cellulose, MOC, and total SOC to increase with dynamic CUE and decrease with constant CUE, as indicated by the 50% confidence intervals. Regardless of dynamic or constant CUE, the pool sizes of POC, MOC, and total SOC varied from 8% to 8% under +2 C. The scenario analysis using a single parameter set indicates that higher temperature with dynamic CUE might result in greater net increases in both POC-Cellulose and MOC pools. Different dynamics of various SOC pools reflected the catalytic functions of specific enzymes targeting specific substrates and the interactions between microbes, enzymes, and SOC. With the feasible parameter values estimated in this study, models incorporating fundamental principles of microbial-enzyme dynamics can lead to simulation results qualitatively different from traditional models with fast/slow/passive pools.

  2. Patient-Physician Communication About Complementary and Alternative Medicine in a Radiation Oncology Setting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ge Jin; Fishman, Jessica; Annenberg School for Communication at University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ; Vapiwala, Neha; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ; Li, Susan Q.; Desai, Krupali; Xie, Sharon X.; Mao, Jun J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Despite the extensive use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among cancer patients, patient-physician communication regarding CAM therapies remains limited. This study quantified the extent of patient-physician communication about CAM and identified factors associated with its discussion in radiation therapy (RT) settings. Methods and Materials: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 305 RT patients at an urban academic cancer center. Patients with different cancer types were recruited in their last week of RT. Participants self-reported their demographic characteristics, health status, CAM use, patient-physician communication regarding CAM, and rationale for/against discussing CAM therapies with physicians. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify relationships between demographic/clinical variables and patients' discussion of CAM with radiation oncologists. Results: Among the 305 participants, 133 (43.6%) reported using CAM, and only 37 (12.1%) reported discussing CAM therapies with their radiation oncologists. In multivariate analyses, female patients (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.98) and patients with full-time employment (AOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.12-0.81) were less likely to discuss CAM with their radiation oncologists. CAM users (AOR 4.28, 95% CI 1.93-9.53) were more likely to discuss CAM with their radiation oncologists than were non-CAM users. Conclusions: Despite the common use of CAM among oncology patients, discussions regarding these treatments occur rarely in the RT setting, particularly among female and full-time employed patients. Clinicians and patients should incorporate discussions of CAM to guide its appropriate use and to maximize possible benefit while minimizing potential harm.

  3. A NEAR-INFRARED SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY OF K-SELECTED GALAXIES AT z{approx} 2.3: COMPARISON OF STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS CODES AND CONSTRAINTS FROM THE REST-FRAME NIR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Muzzin, Adam; Marchesini, Danilo; Van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Labbe, Ivo; Kriek, Mariska; Franx, Marijn

    2009-08-20

    We present spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of a sample of 34 K-selected galaxies at z{approx} 2.3. These galaxies have near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy that samples the rest-frame Balmer/4000 A break as well as deep photometry in 13 broadband filters. New to our analysis is Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) data that extend the SEDs into the rest-frame NIR. Comparing parameters determined from SED fits with and without the IRAC data we find that the IRAC photometry significantly improves the confidence intervals of {tau}, A{sub v} , M {sub star}, and SFR for individual galaxies, but does not systematically alter the mean parameters of the sample. We use the IRAC data to assess how well current stellar population synthesis codes describe the rest-frame NIR SEDs of young galaxies where discrepancies between treatments of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch phase of stellar evolution are most pronounced. The models of Bruzual and Charlot, Maraston, and Charlot and Bruzual all successfully reproduce the SEDs of our galaxies with {<=}5% differences in the quality of fit; however, the best-fit masses from each code differ systematically by as much as a factor of 1.5, and other parameters vary more, up to factors of 2-3. A comparison of best-fit stellar population parameters from different stellar population synthesis (SPS) codes, dust laws, and metallicities shows that the choice of SPS code is the largest systematic uncertainty in most parameters, and that systematic uncertainties are typically larger than the formal random uncertainties. The SED fitting confirms our previous result that galaxies with strongly suppressed SF account for {approx}50% of the K-bright population at z{approx} 2.3; however, the uncertainty in this fraction is large due to systematic differences in the specific star formation rates derived from the three SPS models.

  4. Influence of Antiflatulent Dietary Advice on Intrafraction Motion for Prostate Cancer Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lips, Irene M.; Kotte, Alexis N.T.J.; Gils, Carla H. van; Leerdam, Monique E. van; Heide, Uulke A. van der; Vulpen, Marco van

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the effect of an antiflatulent dietary advice on the intrafraction prostate motion in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Between February 2002 and December 2009, 977 patients received five-beam IMRT for prostate cancer to a dose of 76 Gy in 35 fractions combined with fiducial markers for position verification. In July 2008, the diet, consisting of dietary guidelines to obtain regular bowel movements and to reduce intestinal gas by avoiding certain foods and air swallowing, was introduced to reduce the prostate motion. The intrafraction prostate movement was determined from the portal images of the first segment of all five beams. Clinically relevant intrafraction motion was defined as {>=}50% of the fractions with an intrafraction motion outside a range of 3 mm. Results: A total of 739 patients were treated without the diet and 105 patients were treated with radiotherapy after introduction of the diet. The median and interquartile range of the average intrafraction motion per patient was 2.53 mm (interquartile range, 2.2-3.0) without the diet and 3.00 mm (interquartile range, 2.4-3.5) with the diet (p < .0001). The percentage of patients with clinically relevant intrafraction motion increased statistically significant from 19.1% without diet to 42.9% with a diet (odds ratio, 3.18; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-4.88; p < .0001). Conclusions: The results of the present study suggest that antiflatulent dietary advice for patients undergoing IMRT for prostate cancer does not reduce the intrafraction movement of the prostate. Therefore, antiflatulent dietary advice is not recommended in clinical practice for this purpose.

  5. The south Karelia air pollution study: Effects of low-level expsoure to malodorous sulfur compounds on symptoms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Partti-Pellinen, K.; Marttila, O.; Vilkka, V.; Jaakkola, J.J. |

    1996-07-01

    Exposure to very low levels of ambient-air malodorous sulfur compounds and their effect on eye irritation, respiratory-tract symptoms, and central nervous system symptoms in adults were assessed. A cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire (response rate = 77%) was distributed during March and April 1992 to adults (n = 336) who lived in a neighborhood that contained a pulp mill and in a nonpolluted reference community (n = 380). In the exposed community, the measured annual mean concentrations of total reduced sulfur compounds and sulfur dioxide measured in two stations were 2 to 3 {mu}g/m{sup 3} and 1 {mu}g/m{sup 3}, respectively. In the reference community, the annual mean concentration of sulfur dioxide was 1 {mu}g/m{sup 3}. The residents of the community near the pulp mill reported an excess of cough, respiratory infections, and headache during the previous 4 wk, as well as during the preceding 12 mo. The relative risk for headache was increased significantly in the exposed community, compared with the reference area: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.83 (95% confidence interval [95% Cl] = 1.06-3.15) during the previous 4 wk and 1.70 (95% Cl = 1.05-2.73) during the preceding 12 mo. The relative risk for cough was also increased during the preceding 12 mo (aOR = 1.64, 95% Cl = 1.01-2.64). These results indicated that adverse health effects of malodorous sulfur compounds occur at lower concentrations than reported previously. 25 refs., 3 tabs.

  6. Contaminants in Buildings and Occupied Spaces as Risk Factors forOccupant Symptoms in U.S. Office Buildings: Findings from the U.S. EPABASE Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendell, M.J.; Mirer, A.; Lei-Gomez, Q.

    2007-08-01

    Nonspecific building-related symptoms among occupants of modern office buildings worldwide are common and may be associated with important reductions in work performance, but their etiology remains uncertain. Most reported research into environmental risk factors for these symptoms has focused on ventilation system-related factors, dampness, and particle removal through filtration and cleaning, with relatively few studies of other potential sources of indoor contaminants. We analyzed data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from a representative sample of 100 large U.S. office buildings--the Building Assessment and Survey Evaluation (BASE) study--using multivariate-adjusted logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between seven building-related symptom outcomes and a diverse set of potential indoor and outdoor sources for indoor pollutants. Although most of the investigated risk factors showed no apparent association with building-related symptoms, some interesting associations resulted. Increased prevalence of symptoms was associated with carpets older than one year (lower respiratory symptoms), non-carpeted floors (upper and lower respiratory symptoms), older furniture (eye and skin symptoms), infrequent vacuuming (upper respiratory, eye, and skin symptoms and headache), and masonry exterior walls (cough, eye symptoms, and fatigue/concentration difficulty). For the many potential risk factors assessed, almost none had been investigated previously, and many associations found here may have been by chance. Additional confirmatory research focused on risk factors initially identified here is needed, using more objective measures of health outcomes and risk factors or exposures.

  7. Impact of Cranial Irradiation Added to Intrathecal Conditioning in Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Adult Acute Myeloid Leukemia With Central Nervous System Involvement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mayadev, Jyoti S.; Douglas, James G.; Storer, Barry E.; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Storb, Rainer

    2011-05-01

    Purpose: Neither the prognostic importance nor the appropriate management of central nervous system (CNS) involvement is known for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We examined the impact of a CNS irradiation boost to standard intrathecal chemotherapy (ITC). Methods and Materials: From 1995 to 2005, a total of 648 adult AML patients received a myeloablative HCT: 577 patients were CNS negative (CNS-), and 71 were CNS positive (CNS+). Of the 71 CNS+ patients, 52 received intrathecal chemotherapy alone (CNS+ITC), and 19 received ITC plus an irradiation boost (CNS+RT). Results: The CNS-, CNS+ITC, and CNS+RT patients had 1- and 5-year relapse-free survivals (RFS) of 43% and 35%, 15% and 6%, and 37% and 32%, respectively. CNS+ITC patients had a statistically significant worse RFS compared with CNS- patients (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-3.6; p < 0.0001). CNS+RT patients had improved relapse free survival over that of CNS+ITC patients (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8; p = 0.01). The 1- and 5-year overall survivals (OS) of patients with CNS-, CNS+ITC, and CNS+RT, were 50% and 38%, 21% and 6%, and 53% and 42%, respectively. The survival of CNS+RT were significantly better than CNS+ITC patients (p = 0.004). After adjusting for known risk factors, CNS+RT patients had a trend toward lower relapse rates and reduced nonrelapse mortality. Conclusions: CNS+ AML is associated with a poor prognosis. The role of a cranial irradiation boost to intrathecal chemotherapy appears to mitigate the risk of CNS disease, and needs to be further investigated to define optimal treatment strategies.

  8. Characterization of the Wymark CO2 Reservoir: A Natural Analog to Long-Term CO2 Storage at Weyburn

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryerson, F; Johnson, J

    2010-11-22

    Natural accumulations of CO{sub 2} occur in the Duperow and other Devonian strata on the western flank of the Williston Basin in lithologies very similar to those into which anthropogenic CO{sub 2} is being injected as part of an EOR program in the Weyburn-Midale pool. Previous workers have established the stratgraphic and petrographic similarities between the Duperow and Midale beds (Lake and Whittaker, 2004 and 2006). As the CO{sub 2} accumulations in the Devonian strata may be as old as 50 Ma, this similarity provides confidence in the efficacy of long-term geologic sequestration of CO{sub 2} in the Midale-Weyburn pool. Here we attempt to extend this comparison with whole rock and mineral chemistry using the same sample suite used by Lake and Whittaker. We provide XRD, XRF, and electron microprobe analysis of major constituent minerals along with extensive backscattered electron and x-ray imaging to identify trace phases and silicate minerals. LPNORM analysis is used to quantify modal concentrations of minerals species. Samples from depth intervals where CO{sub 2} has been observed are compared to those where CO{sub 2} was absent, with no systematic differences in mineral composition observed. Gas accumulation can be correlated with sample porosity. In particular gas-bearing samples from the Eastend region are more porous than the overlying gas-free samples. Silicate minerals are rare in the Duperow carbonates, never exceeding 3 wt%. As such, mineral trapping is precluded in these lithologies. The geochemical data presented here will be used for comparison with a similar geochemical-mineralogical study of the Midale (Durocher et al., 2003) in a subsequent report.

  9. Radiation Therapy to the Plexus Brachialis in Breast Cancer Patients: Analysis of Paresthesia in Relation to Dose and Volume

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundstedt, Dan; Gustafsson, Magnus; Steineck, Gunnar; Sundberg, Agnetha; Wilderäng, Ulrica; Holmberg, Erik; Johansson, Karl-Axel; Karlsson, Per

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: To identify volume and dose predictors of paresthesia after irradiation of the brachial plexus among women treated for breast cancer. Methods and Materials: The women had breast surgery with axillary dissection, followed by radiation therapy with (n=192) or without irradiation (n=509) of the supraclavicular lymph nodes (SCLNs). The breast area was treated to 50 Gy in 2.0-Gy fractions, and 192 of the women also had 46 to 50 Gy to the SCLNs. We delineated the brachial plexus on 3-dimensional dose-planning computerized tomography. Three to eight years after radiation therapy the women answered a questionnaire. Irradiated volumes and doses were calculated and related to the occurrence of paresthesia in the hand. Results: After treatment with axillary dissection with radiation therapy to the SCLNs 20% of the women reported paresthesia, compared with 13% after axillary dissection without radiation therapy, resulting in a relative risk (RR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.11). Paresthesia was reported by 25% after radiation therapy to the SCLNs with a V{sub 40} {sub Gy} ≥ 13.5 cm{sup 3}, compared with 13% without radiation therapy, RR 1.83 (95% CI 1.13-2.95). Women having a maximum dose to the brachial plexus of ≥55.0 Gy had a 25% occurrence of paresthesia, with RR 1.86 (95% CI 0.68-5.07, not significant). Conclusion: Our results indicate that there is a correlation between larger irradiated volumes of the brachial plexus and an increased risk of reported paresthesia among women treated for breast cancer.

  10. The utility of web mining for epidemiological research: studying the association between parity and cancer risk [Web Mining for Epidemiological Research. Assessing its Utility in Exploring the Association Between Parity and Cancer Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tourassi, Georgia; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Xu, Songhua; Han, Xuesong

    2015-11-27

    Background: The World Wide Web has emerged as a powerful data source for epidemiological studies related to infectious disease surveillance. However, its potential for cancer-related epidemiological discoveries is largely unexplored. Methods: Using advanced web crawling and tailored information extraction procedures we automatically collected and analyzed the text content of 79,394 online obituary articles published between 1998 and 2014. The collected data included 51,911 cancer (27,330 breast; 9,470 lung; 6,496 pancreatic; 6,342 ovarian; 2,273 colon) and 27,483 non-cancer cases. With the derived information, we replicated a case-control study design to investigate the association between parity and cancer risk. Age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each cancer type and compared to those reported in large-scale epidemiological studies. Results: Parity was found to be associated with a significantly reduced risk of breast cancer (OR=0.78, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.82), pancreatic cancer (OR=0.78, 95% CI = 0.72 to 0.83), colon cancer (OR=0.67, 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74), and ovarian cancer (OR=0.58, 95% CI = 0.54 to 0.62). Marginal association was found for lung cancer prevalence (OR=0.87, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.92). The linear trend between multi-parity and reduced cancer risk was dramatically more pronounced for breast and ovarian cancer than the other cancers included in the analysis. Conclusion: This large web-mining study on parity and cancer risk produced findings very similar to those reported with traditional observational studies. It may be used as a promising strategy to generate study hypotheses for guiding and prioritizing future epidemiological studies.

  11. Uranium in soils integrated demonstration site characterization at Fernald, Ohio. Report of uranium concentrations in soil determined by in situ LA-ICP-AES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baldwin, D.; Zamzow, D.; Bajic, S.J.

    1993-02-02

    Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry was used for in situ determination of uranium and thorium concentrations in soil at 80 sampling sites in the Sewage Treatment Plant area. This work was performed by the Environmental Technology Development Program of the Ames Laboratory using a completely self-contained mobile laboratory. This laboratory, the mobile demonstration laboratory for environmental screening technologies and the robotic sampling accessory, were designed and constructed by the Ames Laboratory during FY 1992. The instrumentation is capable of analyzing each sample for twenty operator-defined elements simultaneously. Using the MDLEST/RSA, the uranium concentrations in the soil at the 80 sampling sites were found to range from <20 parts-per-million (ppM)(<13.5 pCi/g) to 303 ppM (205 pCi/g). The 95% confidence interval for these field determined values range from 80 to 110 ppM. Bore hole samples from two sites were analyzed. No measurable uranium concentration was detected below the one foot depth. Seven samples taken from sites within an area currently under remediation were analyzed and found to contain uranium concentrations ranging from 101 ppM (68.3 pCi/g) to 788 ppM (532 pCi/g). Soil samples were taken from twelve of the 80 sampling sites in the field, using conventional sampling techniques. These samples were prepared by microwave digestion, using the wet chemistry capability in the MDLEST, and field analyzed using solution nebulization ICP-AES. The laboratory procedure followed for microwave digestion required the samples to be diluted by a factor of 100. This dilution resulted in uranium intensities too low to be accurately quantitated in the field. Optimization of the instrumentation and sample preparation will make this field capability useful in determining near real-time the soil matrix, and enable the performance of this quality assurance process in the field with greater sensitivity and accuracy.

  12. Hyperfractionated Accelerated Radiation Therapy (HART) of 70.6 Gy With Concurrent 5-FU/Mitomycin C Is Superior to HART of 77.6 Gy Alone in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: Long-term Results of the ARO 95-06 Randomized Phase III Trial

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budach, Volker; Stromberger, Carmen; Poettgen, Christoph; Baumann, Michael; Budach, Wilfried; Grabenbauer, Gerhard; Marnitz, Simone; Olze, Heidi; Wernecke, Klaus-Dieter; Ghadjar, Pirus

    2015-04-01

    Purpose: To report the long-term results of the ARO 95-06 randomized trial comparing hyperfractionated accelerated chemoradiation with mitomycin C/5-fluorouracil (C-HART) with hyperfractionated accelerated radiation therapy (HART) alone in locally advanced head and neck cancer. Patients and Methods: The primary endpoint was locoregional control (LRC). Three hundred eighty-four patients with stage III (6%) and IV (94%) oropharyngeal (59.4%), hypopharyngeal (32.3%), and oral cavity (8.3%) cancer were randomly assigned to 30 Gy/2 Gy daily followed by twice-daily 1.4 Gy to a total of 70.6 Gy concurrently with mitomycin C/5-FU (C-HART) or 16 Gy/2 Gy daily followed by twice-daily 1.4 Gy to a total dose of 77.6 Gy alone (HART). Statistical analyses were done with the log-rank test and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: The median follow-up time was 8.7 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.8-9.7 years). At 10 years, the LRC rates were 38.0% (C-HART) versus 26.0% (HART, P=.002). The cancer-specific survival and overall survival rates were 39% and 10% (C-HART) versus 30.0% and 9% (HART, P=.042 and P=.049), respectively. According to multivariate Cox regression analysis, the combined treatment was associated with improved LRC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.6 [95% CI: 0.5-0.8; P=.002]). The association between combined treatment arm and increased LRC appeared to be limited to oropharyngeal cancer (P=.003) as compared with hypopharyngeal or oral cavity cancer (P=.264). Conclusions: C-HART remains superior to HART in terms of LRC. However, this effect may be limited to oropharyngeal cancer patients.

  13. Twenty-Five-Year Experience With Radical Chemoradiation for Anal Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tomaszewski, Jonathan M.; Link, Emma; Leong, Trevor; Heriot, Alexander; Vazquez, Melisa; Chander, Sarat; Chu, Julie; Foo, Marcus; Lee, Mark T.; Lynch, Craig A.; Mackay, John; Michael, Michael; Tran, Phillip; Ngan, Samuel Y.

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic factors, patterns of failure, and late toxicity in patients treated with chemoradiation (CRT) for anal cancer. Methods and Materials: Consecutive patients with nonmetastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the anus treated by CRT with curative intent between February 1983 and March 2008 were identified through the institutional database. Chart review and telephone follow-up were undertaken to collect demographic data and outcome. Results: Two hundred eighty-four patients (34% male; median age 62 years) were identified. The stages at diagnosis were 23% Stage I, 48% Stage II, 10% Stage IIIA, and 18% Stage IIIB. The median radiotherapy dose to the primary site was 54 Gy. A complete clinical response to CRT was achieved in 89% of patients. With a median follow-up time of 5.3 years, the 5-year rates of locoregional control, distant control, colostomy-free survival, and overall survival were 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78-88), 92% (95% CI, 89-96), 73% (95% CI, 68-79), and 82% (95% CI, 77-87), respectively. Higher T stage and male sex predicted for locoregional failure, and higher N stage predicted for distant metastases. Locoregional failure occurred most commonly at the primary site. Omission of elective inguinal irradiation resulted in inguinal failure rates of 1.9% and 12.5% in T1N0 and T2N0 patients, respectively. Pelvic nodal failures were very uncommon. Late vaginal and bone toxicity was observed in addition to gastrointestinal toxicity. Conclusions: CRT is a highly effective approach in anal cancer. However, subgroups of patients fare relatively poorly, and novel approaches are needed. Elective inguinal irradiation can be safely omitted only in patients with Stage I disease. Vaginal toxicity and insufficiency fractures of the hip and pelvis are important late effects that require prospective evaluation.

  14. Maternal blood metal levels and fetal markers of metabolic function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ashley-Martin, Jillian; Dodds, Linda; Arbuckle, Tye E.; Ettinger, Adrienne S.; Shapiro, Gabriel D.; Fisher, Mandy; Taback, Shayne; Bouchard, Maryse F.; Monnier, Patricia; Dallaire, Renee; Fraser, William D.

    2015-01-15

    Exposure to metals commonly found in the environment has been hypothesized to be associated with measures of fetal growth but the epidemiological literature is limited. The Maternal–Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) study recruited 2001 women during the first trimester of pregnancy from 10 Canadian sites. Our objective was to assess the association between prenatal exposure to metals (lead, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury) and fetal metabolic function. Average maternal metal concentrations in 1st and 3rd trimester blood samples were used to represent prenatal metals exposure. Leptin and adiponectin were measured in 1363 cord blood samples and served as markers of fetal metabolic function. Polytomous logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between metals and both high (≥90%) and low (≤10%) fetal adiponectin and leptin levels. Leptin levels were significantly higher in female infants compared to males. A significant relationship between maternal blood cadmium and odds of high leptin was observed among males but not females in adjusted models. When adjusting for birth weight z-score, lead was associated with an increased odd of high leptin. No other significant associations were found at the top or bottom 10th percentile in either leptin or adiponectin models. This study supports the proposition that maternal levels of cadmium influence cord blood adipokine levels in a sex-dependent manner. Further investigation is required to confirm these findings and to determine how such findings at birth will translate into childhood anthropometric measures. - Highlights: • We determined relationships between maternal metal levels and cord blood adipokines. • Cord blood leptin levels were higher among female than male infants. • Maternal cadmium was associated with elevated leptin in male, not female infants. • No significant associations were observed between metals and

  15. Pretreatment Evaluation of Microcirculation by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Survival in Primary Rectal Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeVries, Alexander Friedrich; Piringer, Gudrun; Kremser, Christian; Judmaier, Werner; Saely, Christoph Hubert; Lukas, Peter; Öfner, Dietmar

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of the perfusion index (PI), a microcirculatory parameter estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability, to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in patients with primary rectal cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 83 patients with stage cT3 rectal cancer requiring neoadjuvant chemoradiation were investigated with DCE-MRI before start of therapy. Contrast-enhanced dynamic T{sub 1} mapping was obtained, and a simple data analysis strategy based on the calculation of the maximum slope of the tissue concentration–time curve divided by the maximum of the arterial input function was used as a measure of tumor microcirculation (PI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability. Results: In 39 patients (47.0%), T downstaging (ypT0-2) was observed. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 71 ± 29 months, 58 patients (69.9%) survived, and disease-free survival was achieved in 45 patients (54.2%). The mean PI (PImean) averaged over the group of nonresponders was significantly higher than for responders. Additionally, higher PImean in age- and gender-adjusted analyses was strongly predictive of therapy nonresponse. Most importantly, PImean strongly and significantly predicted disease-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.85 [ 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.54; P<.001)]; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.81 [1.30-2.51]; P<.001) as well as overall survival (unadjusted HR 1.42 [1.02-1.99], P=.040; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.43 [1.03-1.98]; P=.034). Conclusions: This analysis identifies PImean as a novel biomarker that is predictive for therapy response, disease-free survival, and overall survival in patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer.

  16. Residential radon and lung cancer incidence in a Danish cohort

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Braeuner, Elvira V.; Andersen, Claus E.; Sorensen, Mette; Jovanovic Andersen, Zorana; Center for Epidemiology Screening, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen ; Gravesen, Peter; Ulbak, Kaare; Hertel, Ole; Pedersen, Camilla; Overvad, Kim; Tjonneland, Anne; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2012-10-15

    High-level occupational radon exposure is an established risk factor for lung cancer. We assessed the long-term association between residential radon and lung cancer risk using a prospective Danish cohort using 57,053 persons recruited during 1993-1997. We followed each cohort member for cancer occurrence until 27 June 2006, identifying 589 lung cancer cases. We traced residential addresses from 1 January 1971 until 27 June 2006 and calculated radon at each of these addresses using information from central databases regarding geology and house construction. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lung cancer risk associated with residential radon exposure with and without adjustment for sex, smoking variables, education, socio-economic status, occupation, body mass index, air pollution and consumption of fruit and alcohol. Potential effect modification by sex, traffic-related air pollution and environmental tobacco smoke was assessed. Median estimated radon was 35.8 Bq/m{sup 3}. The adjusted IRR for lung cancer was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.69-1.56) in association with a 100 Bq/m{sup 3} higher radon concentration and 1.67 (95% CI: 0.69-4.04) among non-smokers. We found no evidence of effect modification. We find a positive association between radon and lung cancer risk consistent with previous studies but the role of chance cannot be excluded as these associations were not statistically significant. Our results provide valuable information at the low-level radon dose range.

  17. Fractures of the Sacrum After Chemoradiation for Rectal Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Radiographic Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Han Jo; Boland, Patrick J.; Meredith, Dennis S.; Lis, Eric; Zhang Zhigang; Shi Weiji; Yamada, Yoshiya J.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: Sacral insufficiency fractures after adjuvant radiation for rectal carcinoma can present similarly to recurrent disease. As a complication associated with pelvic radiation, it is important to be aware of the incidence and risk factors associated with sacral fractures in the clinical assessment of these patients. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2007, a total of 582 patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma received adjuvant chemoradiation and surgical excision. Of these, 492 patients had imaging studies available for review. Hospital records and imaging studies from all 492 patients were retrospectively evaluated to identify risk factors associated with developing a sacral insufficiency fracture. Results: With a median follow-up time of 3.5 years, the incidence of sacral fractures was 7.1% (35/492). The 4-year sacral fracture free rate was 0.91. Univariate analysis showed that increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years), female sex, and history of osteoporosis were significantly associated with shorter time to sacral fracture (P=.01, P=.004, P=.001, respectively). There was no significant difference in the time to sacral fracture for patients based on stage, radiotherapy dose, or chemotherapy regimen. Multivariate analysis showed increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-5.13, P=.01), female sex (HR = 2.64, CI = 1.29-5.38, P=.008), and history of osteoporosis (HR = 3.23, CI = 1.23-8.50, P=.02) were independent risk factors associated with sacral fracture. Conclusions: Sacral insufficiency fractures after pelvic radiation for rectal carcinoma occur more commonly than previously described. Independent risk factors associated with fracture were osteoporosis, female sex, and age greater than 60 years.

  18. SPARCL1 Expression Increases With Preoperative Radiation Therapy and Predicts Better Survival in Rectal Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kotti, Angeliki Holmqvist, Annica; Albertsson, Maria; Sun, Xiao-Feng

    2014-04-01

    Purpose: The secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine-like 1 (SPARCL1) is expressed in various normal tissues and many types of cancers. The function of SPARCL1 and its relationship to a patient's prognosis have been studied, whereas its relationship to radiation therapy (RT) is not known. Our aim was to investigate the expression of SPARCL1 in rectal cancer patients who participated in a clinical trial of preoperative RT. Methods and Materials: The study included 136 rectal cancer patients who were randomized to undergo preoperative RT and surgery (n=63) or surgery alone (n=73). The expression levels of SPARCL1 in normal mucosa (n=29), primary tumor (n=136), and lymph node metastasis (n=35) were determined by immunohistochemistry. Results: Tumors with RT had stronger SPARCL1 expression than tumors without RT (P=.003). In the RT group, strong SPARCL1 expression was related to better survival than weak expression in patients with stage III tumors, independent of sex, age, differentiation, and margin status (P=.022; RR = 18.128; 95% confidence interval, 1.512-217.413). No such relationship was found in the non-RT group (P=.224). Further analysis of interactions among SPARCL1 expression, RT, and survival showed statistical significance (P=.024). In patients with metastases who received RT, strong SPARCL1 expression was related to better survival compared to weak expression (P=.041) but not in the non-RT group (P=.569). Conclusions: SPARCL1 expression increases with RT and is related to better prognosis in rectal cancer patients with RT but not in patients without RT. This result may help us to select the patients best suited for preoperative RT.

  19. Metronomic Adjuvant Chemotherapy Improves Treatment Outcome in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients With Postradiation Persistently Detectable Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus Deoxyribonucleic Acid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twu, Chih-Wen; Wang, Wen-Yi; Chen, Chien-Chih; Liang, Kai-Li; Jiang, Rong-San; Wu, Ching-Te; Shih, Yi-Ting; Lin, Po-Ju; Liu, Yi-Chun; Lin, Jin-Ching

    2014-05-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with persistently detectable plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA (pEBV DNA) after curative radiation therapy plus induction/concurrent chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 625 NPC patients with available pEBV DNA levels before and after treatment. Eighty-five patients with persistently detectable pEBV DNA after 1 week of completing radiation therapy were eligible for this retrospective study. Of the 85 patients, 33 were administered adjuvant chemotherapy consisting of oral tegafur-uracil (2 capsules twice daily) for 12 months with (n=4) or without (n=29) preceding intravenous chemotherapy of mitomycin-C, epirubicin, and cisplatin. The remaining 52 patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy served as the control group. Results: Baseline patient characteristics at diagnosis (age, sex, pathologic type, performance status, T classification, N classification, and overall stage), as well as previous treatment modality, were comparable in both arms. After a median follow-up of 70 months for surviving patients, 45.5% (15 of 33 patients) with adjuvant chemotherapy and 71.2% (37 of 52 patients) without adjuvant chemotherapy experienced tumor relapses (P=.0323). There were a significant reduction in distant failure (P=.0034) but not in local or regional recurrence. The 5-year overall survival rate was 71.6% for patients with adjuvant chemotherapy and 28.7% for patients without adjuvant chemotherapy (hazard ratio 0.27; 95% confidence interval 0.17-0.55; P<.0001). Conclusions: Our retrospective data showed that adjuvant chemotherapy can reduce distant failure and improve overall survival in NPC patients with persistently detectable pEBV DNA after curative radiation therapy plus induction/concurrent chemotherapy.

  20. Long-Term Outcomes of Vestibular Schwannomas Treated With Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy: An Institutional Experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kapoor, Sumit; Batra, Sachin; Carson, Kathryn; Shuck, John; Kharkar, Siddharth; Gandhi, Rahul; Jackson, Juan; Wemmer, Jan; Terezakis, Stephanie; Shokek, Ori; Kleinberg, Lawrence; Rigamonti, Daniele

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: We assessed clinical outcome and long-term tumor control after fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) for unilateral schwannoma. Methods and Materials: Between 1995 and 2007, 496 patients were treated with fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy at Johns Hopkins Hospital (Baltimore, MD); 385 patients had radiologic follow-up that met the inclusion criteria. The primary endpoint was treatment failure. Secondary endpoints were radiologic progression and clinical outcome. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association of age, race, tumor side, sex, and pretreatment symptoms. Results: In 11 patients (3%) treatment failed, and they required salvage (microsurgical) treatment. Radiologic progression was observed in 116 patients (30.0%), including 35 patients (9%) in whom the treatment volume more than doubled during the follow-up period, although none required surgical resection. Tumors with baseline volumes of less than 1 cm{sup 3} were 18.02 times more likely to progress than those with tumor volumes of 1 cm{sup 3} or greater (odds ratio, 18.02; 95% confidence interval, 4.25-76.32). Treatment-induced neurologic morbidity included 8 patients (1.6%) with new facial weakness, 12 patients (2.8%) with new trigeminal paresthesias, 4 patients (0.9%) with hydrocephalus (1 communicating and 3 obstructive), and 2 patients (0.5%) with possibly radiation-induced neoplasia. Conclusions: Although the rate of treatment failure is low (3%), careful follow-up shows that radiologic progression occurs frequently. When reporting outcome, the 'no salvage surgery needed' and 'no additional treatment needed' criteria for treatment success need to be complemented by the radiologic data.

  1. Impact of Gender, Partner Status, and Race on Locoregional Failure and Overall Survival in Head and Neck Cancer Patients in Three Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Trials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dilling, Thomas J.; Bae, Kyounghwa; Paulus, Rebecca; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah; Garden, Adam S.; Forastiere, Arlene; Kian Ang, K.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: We investigated the impact of race, in conjunction with gender and partner status, on locoregional control (LRC) and overall survival (OS) in three head and neck trials conducted by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG). Methods and Materials: Patients from RTOG studies 9003, 9111, and 9703 were included. Patients were stratified by treatment arms. Covariates of interest were partner status (partnered vs. non-partnered), race (white vs. non-white), and sex (female vs. male). Chi-square testing demonstrated homogeneity across treatment arms. Hazards ratio (HR) was used to estimate time to event outcome. Unadjusted and adjusted HRs were calculated for all covariates with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p values. Results: A total of 1,736 patients were analyzed. Unpartnered males had inferior OS rates compared to partnered females (adjusted HR = 1.22, 95% CI, 1.09-1.36), partnered males (adjusted HR = 1.20, 95% CI, 1.09-1.28), and unpartnered females (adjusted HR = 1.20, 95% CI, 1.09-1.32). White females had superior OS compared with white males, non-white females, and non-white males. Non-white males had inferior OS compared to white males. Partnered whites had improved OS relative to partnered non-white, unpartnered white, and unpartnered non-white patients. Unpartnered males had inferior LRC compared to partnered males (adjusted HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.09-1.46) and unpartnered females (adjusted HR = 1.30, 95% CI, 1.05-1.62). White females had LRC superior to non-white males and females. White males had improved LRC compared to non-white males. Partnered whites had improved LRC compared to partnered and unpartnered non-white patients. Unpartnered whites had improved LRC compared to unpartnered non-whites. Conclusions: Race, gender, and partner status had impacts on both OS and locoregional failure, both singly and in combination.

  2. Incidence of Second Malignancies Among Patients Treated With Proton Versus Photon Radiation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chung, Christine S.; Yock, Torunn I.; Nelson, Kerrie; Xu, Yang; Keating, Nancy L.; Tarbell, Nancy J.

    2013-09-01

    Purpose: Proton radiation, when compared with photon radiation, allows delivery of increased radiation dose to the tumor while decreasing dose to adjacent critical structures. Given the recent expansion of proton facilities in the United States, the long-term sequelae of proton therapy should be carefully assessed. The objective of this study was to compare the incidence of second cancers in patients treated with proton radiation with a population-based cohort of matched patients treated with photon radiation. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 558 patients treated with proton radiation from 1973 to 2001 at the Harvard Cyclotron in Cambridge, MA and 558 matched patients treated with photon therapy in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program cancer registry. Patients were matched by age at radiation treatment, sex, year of treatment, cancer histology, and site. The main outcome measure was the incidence of second malignancies after radiation. Results: We matched 558 proton patients with 558 photon patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. The median duration of follow-up was 6.7 years (interquartile range, 7.4) and 6.0 years (interquartile range, 9.3) in the proton and photon cohorts, respectively. The median age at treatment was 59 years in each cohort. Second malignancies occurred in 29 proton patients (5.2%) and 42 photon patients (7.5%). After we adjusted for sex, age at treatment, primary site, and year of diagnosis, proton therapy was not associated with an increased risk of second malignancy (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.52 [95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.85]; P=.009). Conclusions: The use of proton radiation therapy was not associated with a significantly increased risk of secondary malignancies compared with photon therapy. Longer follow-up of these patients is needed to determine if there is a significant decrease in second malignancies. Given the limitations of the study

  3. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions in China from 1995 to 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ye Wu; Shuxiao Wang; David G. Streets; Jiming Hao; Melissa Chan; Jingkun Jiang

    2006-09-01

    We have developed multiple-year inventories of anthropogenic mercury emissions in China for 1995 through 2003. It is estimated that total Hg emissions from all anthropogenic sources increased at an average annual rate of 2.9% during the period 1995-2003, reaching 696 ({+-}307) t in 2003, with a speciation split of 395 t of Hg{sup 0}, 230 t of Hg{sup 2+}, and 70 t of particulate mercury, Hg{sup p}. Nonferrous metals smelting and coal combustion continue to be the two leading mercury sources in China, as nonferrous metals production and coal consumption keep increasing. Nonferrous metals smelting and coal combustion together contributed {approximately}80% of total Hg emissions during the past decade. Hg emissions from coal combustion increased from 202 t in 1995 to 257 t in 2003 at an average annual rate of 3.0%. Among all of the coal consumption sectors, the power sector is the leading one in Hg emissions growth, up by 5.9% annually. Hg emissions from nonferrous metals smelting increased from 230 t in 1995 to 321 t in 2003 at an average annual rate of 4.2%. Although Hg emissions related to gold smelting decreased since 1996, other nonferrous metals such as zinc, lead, and copper contributed significant Hg growth at annual rates of 8.5%, 13.0%, and 6.9%, respectively. At provincial level, the trends of Hg emissions show significant variation. The uncertainty level decreased from {+-}78% (95% confidence interval) in the estimate of total emissions in 1995, to {+-}44% in 2003. This is primarily attributed to the decreased emissions from those Hg sources with the largest uncertainty in both activity levels and emission factors, such as artisanal gold smelting, mercury mining, and battery/fluorescent lamp production. 36 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  4. An indirect latent informational conformity social influence choice model: Formulation and case study

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Maness, Michael; Cirillo, Cinzia

    2016-11-01

    The current state-of-the-art in social influence models of travel behavior is conformity models with direct benefit social influence effects. Indirect effects have seen limited development, but this paper presents a latent class discrete choice model of an indirect informational conformity hypothesis. Moreover, class membership depends on the proportion of group members who adopt a behavior. Membership into the more informed class causes changes in the preferences of those individuals thus making adoption more attractive. Equilibrium properties are derived for this model showing the possibility of multiple equilibria but under different conditions than the direct-benefit formulations. Social influence elasticity is derivedmore » for both models types. The informational conformity model can represent non-linear elasticity behavior unlike the direct-benefit formulation. Additionally, a two-stage control function is developed to obtain consistent parameter estimates in the presence of an endogenous class membership model covariate that is correlated with choice model unobservables. A case study to study social influence in bicycle ownership in the United States is presented. Our results showed that more informed households had a greater chance of owning a bike due to preference changes with less sensitivity to smaller home footprints and limited incomes. The behavioral hypothesis of positive preference change due to information transfer was confirmed. Observed ownership share closely matched predicted local-level equilibrium in some metropolitan areas but was unable to achieve expected prediction rate within confidence intervals. Finally, the elasticity of social influence was found to range locally from about 0.5% to 1.0%.« less

  5. Vitamin D Deficiency Is Associated With the Severity of Radiation-Induced Proctitis in Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghorbanzadeh-Moghaddam, Amir; Gholamrezaei, Ali; Hemati, Simin

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: Radiation-induced injury to normal tissues is a common complication of radiation therapy in cancer patients. Considering the role of vitamin D in mucosal barrier hemostasis and inflammatory responses, we investigated whether vitamin D deficiency is associated with the severity of radiation-induced acute proctitis in cancer patients. Methods and Materials: This prospective observational study was conducted in cancer patients referred for pelvic radiation therapy. Serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D was measured before radiation therapy. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations of <35 nmol/L and <40 nmol/L in male and female patients, respectively, based on available normative data. Acute proctitis was assessed after 5 weeks of radiation therapy (total received radiation dose of 50 Gy) and graded from 0 to 4 using Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) criteria. Results: Ninety-eight patients (57.1% male) with a mean age of 62.8 ± 9.1 years were studied. Vitamin D deficiency was found in 57 patients (58.1%). Symptoms of acute proctitis occurred in 72 patients (73.4%) after radiation therapy. RTOG grade was significantly higher in patients with vitamin D deficiency than in normal cases (median [interquartile range] of 2 [0.5-3] vs 1 [0-2], P=.037). Vitamin D deficiency was associated with RTOG grade of ≥2, independent of possible confounding factors; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 3.07 (1.27-7.50), P=.013. Conclusions: Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased severity of radiation-induced acute proctitis. Investigating the underlying mechanisms of this association and evaluating the effectiveness of vitamin D therapy in preventing radiation-induced acute proctitis is warranted.

  6. Intra- and Interfractional Variations for Prone Breast Irradiation: An Indication for Image-Guided Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrow, Natalya V.; Stepaniak, Christopher; White, Julia; Wilson, J. Frank [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Li, X. Allen [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)], E-mail: ali@radonc.mcw.edu

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: Intra- and interfractional errors for breast cancer patients undergoing breast irradiation in the prone position were analyzed. Methods and Materials: To assess intrafractional error resulting from respiratory motion, four-dimensional computed tomography scans were acquired for 3 prone and 3 supine patients, and the respiratory motion was compared for the two positions. To assess the interfractional error caused by daily set-up variations, daily electronic portal images of one of the treatment beams were taken for 15 prone-positioned patients. Portal images were then overlaid with images from the planning system that included the breast contour and the isocenter, treatment beam portal, and isocenter. The shift between the planned and actual isocenter was recorded for each portal image, and descriptive statistics were collected for each patient. The margins were calculated using the 2{sigma}+0.7{sigma} recipe, as well as 95% confidence interval based on the pooled standard deviation of the datasets. Results: Respiratory motion of the chest wall is drastically reduced from 2.3 {+-} 0.9 mm in supine position to -0.1 {+-} 0.4 mm in prone position. The daily set-up errors vary in magnitude from 0.0 cm to 1.65 cm and are patient dependent. The margins were defined by considering only the standard deviation to be 1.1 cm, and 2.0 cm when the systematic errors were considered using the 2{sigma}+0.7{sigma} recipe. Conclusions: Prone positioning of patients for breast irradiation significantly reduces the uncertainty introduced by intrafractional respiratory motion. The presence of large systematic error in the interfractional variations necessitates a large clinical target volume-to-planning target volume margin and indicates the importance of image guidance for partial breast irradiation in the prone position, particularly using imaging modality capable of identifying the lumpectomy cavity.

  7. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  8. Prevalence and contribution of BRCA1 mutations in breast cancer and ovarian cancer: Results from three US population-based case-control studies of ovarian cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whittemore, A.S.; Gong, G.; Itnyre, J.

    1997-03-01

    We investigate the familial risks of cancers of the breast and ovary, using data pooled from three population-based case-control studies of ovarian cancer that were conducted in the United States. We base estimates of the frequency of mutations of BRCA1 (and possibly other genes) on the reported occurrence of breast cancer and ovarian cancer in the mothers and sisters of 922 women with incident ovarian cancer (cases) and in 922 women with no history of ovarian cancer (controls). Segregation analysis and goodness-of-fit testing of genetic models suggest that rare mutations (frequency .0014; 95% confidence interval .0002-.011) account for all the observed aggregation of breast cancer and ovarian cancer in these families. The estimated risk of breast cancer by age 80 years is 73.5% in mutation carriers and 6.8% in noncarriers. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer are 27.8% in carriers and 1.8% in noncarriers. For cancer risk in carriers, these estimates are lower than those obtained from families selected for high cancer prevalence. The estimated proportion of all U.S. cancer diagnoses, by age 80 years, that are due to germ-line BRCA1 mutations is 3.0% for breast cancer and 4.4% for ovarian cancer. Aggregation of breast cancer and ovarian cancer was less evident in the families of 169 cases with borderline ovarian cancers than in the families of cases with invasive cancers. Familial aggregation did not differ by the ethnicity of the probands, although the number of non-White and Hispanic cases (N = 99) was sparse. 14 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs.

  9. Preoperative 3-Tesla Multiparametric Endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings and the Odds of Upgrading and Upstaging at Radical Prostatectomy in Men With Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hegde, John V.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Mulkern, Robert V.; Fennessy, Fiona M.; D'Amico, Anthony V.; Tempany, Clare M.C.

    2013-02-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether 3-T esla (3T) multiparametric endorectal MRI (erMRI) can add information to established predictors regarding occult extraprostatic or high-grade prostate cancer (PC) in men with clinically localized PC. Methods and Materials: At a single academic medical center, this retrospective study's cohort included 118 men with clinically localized PC who underwent 3T multiparametric erMRI followed by radical prostatectomy, from 2008 to 2011. Multivariable logistic regression analyses in all men and in 100 with favorable-risk PC addressed whether erMRI evidence of T3 disease was associated with prostatectomy T3 or Gleason score (GS) 8-10 (in patients with biopsy GS {<=}7) PC, adjusting for age, prostate-specific antigen level, clinical T category, biopsy GS, and percent positive biopsies. Results: The accuracy of erMRI prediction of extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion was 75% and 95%, respectively. For all men, erMRI evidence of a T3 lesion versus T2 was associated with an increased odds of having pT3 disease (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 4.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36-16.98, P=.015) and pGS 8-10 (AOR 5.56, 95% CI 1.10-28.18, P=.038). In the favorable-risk population, these results were AOR 4.14 (95% CI 1.03-16.56), P=.045 and AOR 7.71 (95% CI 1.36-43.62), P=.021, respectively. Conclusions: Three-Tesla multiparametric erMRI in men with favorable-risk PC provides information beyond that contained in known preoperative predictors about the presence of occult extraprostatic and/or high-grade PC. If validated in additional studies, this information can be used to counsel men planning to undergo radical prostatectomy or radiation therapy about the possible need for adjuvant radiation therapy or the utility of adding hormone therapy, respectively.

  10. Bone mineral density and blood metals in premenopausal women

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pollack, A.Z.; Mumford, S.L.; Wactawski-Wende, J.; Yeung, E.; Mendola, P.; Mattison, D.R.; Schisterman, E.F.

    2013-01-15

    Exposure to metals, specifically cadmium, lead, and mercury, is widespread and is associated with reduced bone mineral density (BMD) in older populations, but the associations among premenopausal women are unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the relationship between these metals in blood and BMD (whole body, total hip, lumbar spine, and non-dominant wrist) quantified by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry in 248 premenopausal women, aged 18-44. Participants were of normal body mass index (mean BMI 24.1), young (mean age 27.4), 60% were white, 20% non-Hispanic black, 15% Asian, and 6% other race group, and were from the Buffalo, New York region. The median (interquartile range) level of cadmium was 0.30 {mu}g/l (0.19-0.43), of lead was 0.86 {mu}g/dl (0.68-1.20), and of mercury was 1.10 {mu}g/l (0.58-2.00). BMD was treated both as a continuous variable in linear regression and dichotomized at the 10th percentile for logistic regression analyses. Mercury was associated with reduced odds of decreased lumbar spine BMD (0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.99), but overall, metals at environmentally relevant levels of exposure were not associated with reduced BMD in this population of healthy, reproductive-aged women. Further research is needed to determine if the blood levels of cadmium, lead, and mercury in this population are sufficiently low that there is no substantive impact on bone, or if effects on bone can be expected only at older ages.

  11. Comparative Effectiveness of 5 Treatment Strategies for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in the Elderly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shirvani, Shervin M.; Jiang, Jing; Chang, Joe Y.; Welsh, James W.; Gomez, Daniel R.; Swisher, Stephen; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2012-12-01

    Purpose: The incidence of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) among older adults is expected to increase because of demographic trends and computed tomography-based screening; yet, optimal treatment in the elderly remains controversial. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare cohort spanning 2001-2007, we compared survival outcomes associated with 5 strategies used in contemporary practice: lobectomy, sublobar resection, conventional radiation therapy, stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR), and observation. Methods and Materials: Treatment strategy and covariates were determined in 10,923 patients aged {>=}66 years with stage IA-IB NSCLC. Cox regression, adjusted for patient and tumor factors, compared overall and disease-specific survival for the 5 strategies. In a second exploratory analysis, propensity-score matching was used for comparison of SABR with other options. Results: The median age was 75 years, and 29% had moderate to severe comorbidities. Treatment distribution was lobectomy (59%), sublobar resection (11.7%), conventional radiation (14.8%), observation (12.6%), and SABR (1.1%). In Cox regression analysis with a median follow-up time of 3.2 years, SABR was associated with the lowest risk of death within 6 months of diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.63; referent is lobectomy). After 6 months, lobectomy was associated with the best overall and disease-specific survival. In the propensity-score matched analysis, survival after SABR was similar to that after lobectomy (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.45-1.12; referent is SABR). Conventional radiation and observation were associated with poor outcomes in all analyses. Conclusions: In this population-based experience, lobectomy was associated with the best long-term outcomes in fit elderly patients with early-stage NSCLC. Exploratory analysis of SABR early adopters suggests efficacy comparable with that of surgery in select populations

  12. Biochemical Control With Radiotherapy Improves Overall Survival in Intermediate and High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have an Estimated 10-Year Overall Survival of >90%

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herbert, Christopher; Liu, Mitchell; Tyldesley, Scott; Morris, W. James; Joffres, Michel; Khaira, Mandip; Kwan, Winkle; Moiseenko, Vitali; Pickles, Thomas

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: To identify subgroups of patients with carcinoma of the prostate treated with radical radiotherapy that have improved overall survival when disease is biochemically controlled. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 1,060 prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy was divided into nine subgroups based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category and estimated 10-year overall survival (eOS 10y) derived from the age adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index. Patients with and without biochemical control were compared with respect to overall survival. Actuarial estimates of overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of overall survival. Results: Median follow-up was 125 months (range, 51-176 months). Only the subgroups with high or intermediate risk disease and an eOS 10y of >90% had a statistically significantly improved overall survival when prostate cancer was biochemically controlled. In all other groups, biochemical control made no significant difference to overall survival. In the subgroup with high-risk disease and eOS 10y >90%, actuarial overall survival was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.5%-94.1%) and 62.1% (95% CI 52.9%-71.3%) for patients with biochemical control and biochemical relapse respectively (p = 0.002). In the intermediate risk group with eOS >90%, actuarial overall survival was 95.3% (95% CI 89.0%-100%) and 79.8% (95% CI 68.0%-91.6%) for biochemically controlled and biochemically relapsed patients (p = 0.033). On multivariate analysis, National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = 0.005), biochemical control (p = 0.033) and eOS 10y (p < 0.001) were statistically significant. Conclusion: Biochemical control translates into improved overall survival in patients with high or intermediate risk disease and an estimated 10-year overall survival of >90%.

  13. Impact of Adjuvant External-Beam Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Uterine Papillary Serous and Clear Cell Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Anne; Schreiber, David; Rineer, Justin; Choi, Kwang; Rotman, Marvin

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) in early-stage high- to intermediate-risk endometrioid adenocarcinoma is well established and has been shown to improve locoregional control. Its role in the management of early-stage clear cell carcinoma and uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC) remains controversial. Methods and Materials: Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database, we identified women with American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage Sixth Edition. Stage IA-IIB clear cell carcinoma or UPSC who underwent hysterectomy with or without adjuvant RT between 1988 and 2003. We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis to compare overall survival (OS) for all patients. Results: We identified 1,333 women of whom 451 had clear cell carcinoma and 882 had UPSC. Of those patients, 775 underwent surgery alone and 558 received adjuvant RT as well. For Stages I-IIB disease, the median OS with surgery alone was 106 months, vs. 151 months with adjuvant RT (p = 0.006). On subgroup analysis, we saw the benefit from adjuvant RT only in Stage IB-C patients. For Stage IB disease, patients undergoing surgery alone had a median OS of 117 months, vs. median survival not reached with the addition of RT (p = 0.006). For Stage IC disease, surgery alone had a median OS of 35 months vs. 120 months with RT (p = 0.001). Although the apparent benefit of RT diminished when measured via multivariate analysis, the impact of RT on survival did show a trend toward significance (hazard ration 0.808, confidence interval 95% 0.651-1.002, p = 0.052) Conclusion: In FIGO Stage IB-C papillary serous and clear cell uterine carcinoma, adjuvant RT seems to play an important role in improving survival.

  14. A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT METHODS: A CANDELS INVESTIGATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dahlen, Tomas; Ferguson, Henry C.; Mobasher, Bahram; Faber, Sandra M.; Barro, Guillermo; Guo, Yicheng; Finlator, Kristian; Fontana, Adriano; Gruetzbauch, Ruth; Johnson, Seth; Pforr, Janine; Dickinson, Mark E.; Salvato, Mara; Wuyts, Stijn; Wiklind, Tommy; Acquaviva, Viviana; Huang, Jiasheng; Huang, Kuang-Han; Newman, Jeffrey A.; and others

    2013-10-01

    We present results from the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS) photometric redshift methods investigation. In this investigation, the results from 11 participants, each using a different combination of photometric redshift code, template spectral energy distributions (SEDs), and priors, are used to examine the properties of photometric redshifts applied to deep fields with broadband multi-wavelength coverage. The photometry used includes U-band through mid-infrared filters and was derived using the TFIT method. Comparing the results, we find that there is no particular code or set of template SEDs that results in significantly better photometric redshifts compared to others. However, we find that codes producing the lowest scatter and outlier fraction utilize a training sample to optimize photometric redshifts by adding zero-point offsets, template adjusting, or adding extra smoothing errors. These results therefore stress the importance of the training procedure. We find a strong dependence of the photometric redshift accuracy on the signal-to-noise ratio of the photometry. On the other hand, we find a weak dependence of the photometric redshift scatter with redshift and galaxy color. We find that most photometric redshift codes quote redshift errors (e.g., 68% confidence intervals) that are too small compared to that expected from the spectroscopic control sample. We find that all codes show a statistically significant bias in the photometric redshifts. However, the bias is in all cases smaller than the scatter; the latter therefore dominates the errors. Finally, we find that combining results from multiple codes significantly decreases the photometric redshift scatter and outlier fraction. We discuss different ways of combining data to produce accurate photometric redshifts and error estimates.

  15. A New Method for Synthesizing Radiation Dose-Response Data From Multiple Trials Applied to Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diez, Patricia; Vogelius, Ivan S.; Bentzen, Soren M.

    2010-07-15

    Purpose: A new method is presented for synthesizing dose-response data for biochemical control of prostate cancer according to study design (randomized vs. nonrandomized) and risk group (low vs. intermediate-high). Methods and Materials: Nine published prostate cancer dose escalation studies including 6,539 patients were identified in the MEDLINE and CINAHL databases and reviewed to assess the relationship between dose and biochemical control. A novel method of analysis is presented in which the normalized dose-response gradient, {gamma}{sub 50}, is estimated for each study and subsequently synthesized across studies. Our method does not assume that biochemical control rates are directly comparable between studies. Results: Nonrandomized studies produced a statistically significantly higher {gamma}{sub 50} than randomized studies for intermediate- to high-risk patients ({gamma}{sub 50} = 1.63 vs. {gamma}{sub 50} = 0.93, p = 0.03) and a borderline significantly higher ({gamma}{sub 50} = 1.78 vs. {gamma}{sub 50} = 0.56, p = 0.08) for low-risk patients. No statistically significant difference in {gamma}{sub 50} was found between low- and intermediate- to high-risk patients (p = 0.31). From the pooled data of low and intermediate- to high-risk patients in randomized trials, we obtain the overall best estimate of {gamma}{sub 50} = 0.84 with 95% confidence interval 0.54-1.15. Conclusions: Nonrandomized studies overestimate the steepness of the dose-response curve as compared with randomized trials. This is probably the result of stage migration, improved treatment techniques, and a shorter follow-up in higher dose patients that were typically entered more recently. This overestimation leads to inflated expectations regarding the benefit from dose-escalation and could lead to underpowered clinical trials. There is no evidence of a steeper dose response for intermediate- to high-risk compared with low-risk patients.

  16. Functional Polymorphisms of Base Excision Repair Genes XRCC1 and APEX1 Predict Risk of Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Definitive Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin Ming; Liao Zhongxing; Liu Zhensheng; Wang, Li-E; Gomez, Daniel; Komaki, Ritsuko; Wei Qingyi

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To explore whether functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of base-excision repair genes are predictors of radiation treatment-related pneumonitis (RP), we investigated associations between functional SNPs of ADPRT, APEX1, and XRCC1 and RP development. Methods and Materials: We genotyped SNPs of ADPRT (rs1136410 [V762A]), XRCC1 (rs1799782 [R194W], rs25489 [R280H], and rs25487 [Q399R]), and APEX1 (rs1130409 [D148E]) in 165 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received definitive chemoradiation therapy. Results were assessed by both Logistic and Cox regression models for RP risk. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for the cumulative RP probability by the genotypes. Results: We found that SNPs of XRCC1 Q399R and APEX1 D148E each had a significant effect on the development of Grade {>=}2 RP (XRCC1: AA vs. GG, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.97; APEX1: GG vs. TT, adjusted HR = 3.61, 95% CI, 1.64-7.93) in an allele-dose response manner (Trend tests: p = 0.040 and 0.001, respectively). The number of the combined protective XRCC1 A and APEX1 T alleles (from 0 to 4) also showed a significant trend of predicting RP risk (p = 0.001). Conclusions: SNPs of the base-excision repair genes may be biomarkers for susceptibility to RP. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

  17. ATM Polymorphisms Predict Severe Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Definitive Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiong, Huihua; Liao, Zhongxing; Liu, Zhensheng; Xu, Ting; Wang, Qiming; Liu, Hongliang; Komaki, Ritsuko; Gomez, Daniel; Wang, Li-E; Wei, Qingyi

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: The ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene mediates detection and repair of DNA damage. We investigated associations between ATM polymorphisms and severe radiation-induced pneumonitis (RP). Methods and Materials: We genotyped 3 potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of ATM (rs1801516 [D1853N/5557G>A], rs189037 [-111G>A] and rs228590) in 362 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), who received definitive (chemo)radiation therapy. The cumulative severe RP probabilities by genotypes were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. The associations between severe RP risk and genotypes were assessed by both logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazard model with time to event considered. Results: Of 362 patients (72.4% of non-Hispanic whites), 56 (15.5%) experienced grade ≥3 RP. Patients carrying ATM rs189037 AG/GG or rs228590 TT/CT genotypes or rs189037G/rs228590T/rs1801516G (G-T-G) haplotype had a lower risk of severe RP (rs189037: GG/AG vs AA, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83, P=.009; rs228590: TT/CT vs CC, HR=0.57, 95% CI, 0.33-0.97, P=.036; haplotype: G-T-G vs A-C-G, HR=0.52, 95% CI, 0.35-0.79, P=.002). Such positive findings remained in non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: ATM polymorphisms may serve as biomarkers for susceptibility to severe RP in non-Hispanic whites. Large prospective studies are required to confirm our findings.

  18. HSPB1 Gene Polymorphisms Predict Risk of Mortality for US Patients After Radio(chemo)therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu Ting; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas ; Wei Qingyi; Lopez Guerra, Jose Luis; Department of Radiation Oncology, Instituto Madrileno de Oncologia Wang Lie; Liu Zhensheng; Gomez, Daniel; O'Reilly, Michael; Lin, Steven Hsesheng; Zhuang Yan; Levy, Lawrence B.; Mohan, Radhe; Zhou Honghao; Liao Zhongxing

    2012-10-01

    Purpose: We investigated potential associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the heat shock protein beta-1 (HSPB1) gene and overall survival in US patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Using available genomic DNA samples from 224 patients with NSCLC treated with definitive radio(chemo)therapy, we genotyped 2 SNPs of HSPB1 (NCBI SNP nos. rs2868370 and rs2868371). We used both Kaplan-Meier cumulative probability and Cox proportional hazards analyses to evaluate the effect of HSPB1 genotypes on survival. Results: Our cohort consisted of 117 men and 107 women, mostly white (79.5%), with a median age of 70 years. The median radiation dose was 66 Gy (range, 63-87.5 Gy), and 183 patients (82%) received concurrent platinum-based chemotherapy. The most common genotype of the rs2868371 SNP was CC (61%). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that this genotype was associated with poorer survival than CG and GG genotypes (univariate hazard ratio [HR] = 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.90; P=.037; multivariate HR = 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01-1.92; P=.045). Conclusions: Our results showed that the CC genotype of HSPB1 rs2868371 was associated with poorer overall survival in patients with NSCLC after radio(chemo)therapy, findings that contradict those of a previous study of Chinese patients. Validation of our findings with larger numbers of similar patients is needed, as are mechanical and clinical studies to determine the mechanism underlying these associations.

  19. Rapid decline of Lyα emission toward the reionization era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tilvi, V.; Papovich, C.; Finkelstein, S. L.; Song, M.; Long, J.; Dickinson, M.; Ferguson, H. C.; Koekemoer, A. M.; Giavalisco, M.; Mobasher, B.

    2014-10-10

    The observed deficit of strongly Lyα emitting galaxies at z > 6.5 is attributed to increasing neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) and/or to the evolving galaxy properties. To investigate this we have performed very deep near-IR spectroscopy of z ≳ 7 galaxies using MOSFIRE on the Keck-I Telescope. We measure the Lyα fraction at z ∼ 8 using two methods. First, we derived N {sub Lyα}/N {sub tot} directly, using extensive simulations to correct for incompleteness. Second, we used a Bayesian formalism (introduced by Treu et al.) that compares the z > 7 galaxy spectra to models of the Lyα equivalent width (W {sub Lyα}) distribution at z ∼ 6. We explored two simple evolutionary scenarios: pure number evolution where Lyα is blocked in some fraction of galaxies (perhaps due to the IGM being opaque along only some fraction of sightlines) and uniform dimming evolution where Lyα is attenuated in all galaxies by a constant factor (perhaps owing to processes from galaxy evolution or a slowly increasing IGM opacity). The Bayesian formalism places stronger constraints compared with the direct method. Combining our data with that in the literature, we find that at z ∼ 8 the Lyα fraction has dropped by a factor of >3 (84% confidence interval) using both the dimming and number evolution scenarios, compared to the z ∼ 6 values. Furthermore, we find a tentative positive Bayesian evidence favoring the number evolution scenario over dimming evolution, extending trends observed at z ≲ 7 to higher redshift. A comparison of our results with theoretical models implies the IGM volume averaged neutral hydrogen fraction ≳ 0.3, suggesting that we are likely witnessing reionization in progress at z ∼ 8.

  20. Population-Based Study of Cardiovascular Mortality Among Patients With Prostate Cancer Treated With Radical External Beam Radiation Therapy With and Without Adjuvant Androgen Deprivation Therapy at the British Columbia Cancer Agency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Julian; Vaid, Moninder; Tyldesley, Scott; Woods, Ryan; Pickles, Tom

    2011-07-01

    Purpose: There are conflicting studies of the impact of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on cardiovascular (CV) mortality among prostate cancer patients receiving curative intent external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). We assessed the impact of ADT on CV mortality in patients treated in British Columbia. Methods and Materials: Provincial pharmacy and radiotherapy databases were linked to the provincial cancer registry, and defined a cohort of patients treated with curative intent EBRT between 1998 and 2005. We determined the duration of ADT and the cumulative incidence of CV death. We compared death from CV disease with and without ADT, and by duration of ADT using competing risk analysis and Fine and Gray multivariant analysis. A total of 600 randomly selected patients were reviewed to determine baseline CV disease, CV risk factors, and Charlson Index. Results: Of 5,948 prostate cancer patients treated with radical intent EBRT, of whom 1,933 were treated without ADT, 674 received ADT for {<=}6 months and 3,341 received > 6 months of ADT. The cumulative CV mortality at 7 years was 2.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-3.5%), 2.1% (95% CI = 1.2-3.5%), and 1.4 (95% CI = 1.0-2.0%) for patients with no ADT, {<=}6 months of ADT, and >6 months of ADT, respectively (Gray's p = 0.002). Baseline CV disease and risk factors were more prevalent in the no-ADT group compared with the >6-month ADT group. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a lower CV mortality rate among patients treated with longer durations of ADT than those treated without ADT. These differences likely relate to selection of patients for ADT rather than effect of ADT itself.

  1. TIME DELAY AND ACCRETION DISK SIZE MEASUREMENTS IN THE LENSED QUASAR SBS 0909+532 FROM MULTIWAVELENGTH MICROLENSING ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hainline, Laura J.; Morgan, Christopher W.; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Landaal, Zachary D. [Department of Physics, United States Naval Academy, 572C Holloway Rd, Annapolis, MD 21402 (United States); Kochanek, C. S. [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, 140 West 18th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Harris, Hugh C.; Tilleman, Trudy [United States Naval Observatory, Flagstaff Station, 10391 West Naval Observatory Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001-8521 (United States); Goicoechea, L. J.; Shalyapin, V. N. [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de Los Castros s/n, E-39005 Santander (Spain); Falco, Emilio E., E-mail: hainline@usna.edu, E-mail: cmorgan@usna.edu, E-mail: macleod@usna.edu, E-mail: m123894@usna.edu, E-mail: ckochanek@astronomy.ohio-state.edu, E-mail: hch@nofs.navy.mil, E-mail: trudy@nofs.navy.mil, E-mail: goicol@unican.es, E-mail: vshal@ukr.net, E-mail: falco@cfa.harvard.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2013-09-01

    We present three complete seasons and two half-seasons of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) r-band photometry of the gravitationally lensed quasar SBS 0909+532 from the U.S. Naval Observatory, as well as two seasons each of SDSS g-band and r-band monitoring from the Liverpool Robotic Telescope. Using Monte Carlo simulations to simultaneously measure the system's time delay and model the r-band microlensing variability, we confirm and significantly refine the precision of the system's time delay to {Delta}t{sub AB} = 50{sub -4}{sup +2} days, where the stated uncertainties represent the bounds of the formal 1{sigma} confidence interval. There may be a conflict between the time delay measurement and a lens consisting of a single galaxy. While models based on the Hubble Space Telescope astrometry and a relatively compact stellar distribution can reproduce the observed delay, the models have somewhat less dark matter than we would typically expect. We also carry out a joint analysis of the microlensing variability in the r and g bands to constrain the size of the quasar's continuum source at these wavelengths, obtaining log {l_brace}(r{sub s,r}/cm)[cos i/0.5]{sup 1/2}{r_brace} = 15.3 {+-} 0.3 and log {l_brace}(r{sub s,g}/cm)[cos i/0.5]{sup 1/2}{r_brace} = 14.8 {+-} 0.9, respectively. Our current results do not formally constrain the temperature profile of the accretion disk but are consistent with the expectations of standard thin disk theory.

  2. Natural and Induced Fracture Diagnostics from 4-D VSP Low Permeability Gas Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mark E. Willis; Daniel R. Burns; M. Nafi Toksoz

    2008-09-30

    Tight gas sand reservoirs generally contain thick gas-charged intervals that often have low porosity and very low permeability. Natural and induced fractures provide the only means of production. The objective of this work is to locate and characterize natural and induced fractures from analysis of scattered waves recorded on 4-D (time lapse) VSP data in order to optimize well placement and well spacing in these gas reservoirs. Using model data simulating the scattering of seismic energy from hydraulic fractures, we first show that it is possible to characterize the quality of fracturing based upon the amount of scattering. In addition, the picked arrival times of recorded microseismic events provide the velocity moveout for isolating the scattered energy on the 4-D VSP data. This concept is applied to a field dataset from the Jonah Field in Wyoming to characterize the quality of the induced hydraulic fractures. The time lapse (4D) VSP data from this field are imaged using a migration algorithm that utilizes shot travel time tables derived from the first breaks of the 3D VSPs and receiver travel time tables based on the microseismic arrival times and a regional velocity model. Four azimuthally varying shot tables are derived from picks of the first breaks of over 200 VSP records. We create images of the fracture planes through two of the hydraulically fractured wells in the field. The scattered energy shows correlation with the locations of the microseismic events. In addition, the azimuthal scattering is different from the azimuthal reflectivity of the reservoir, giving us more confidence that we have separated the scattered signal from simple formation reflectivity. Variation of the scattered energy along the image planes suggests variability in the quality of the fractures in three distinct zones.

  3. The Adoption of New Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Modalities Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Breast Cancer: Clinical Correlates and Cost Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, Kenneth B.; Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut ; Soulos, Pamela R.; Section of General Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut ; Herrin, Jeph; Health Research and Educational Trust, Chicago, Illinois ; Yu, James B.; Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut ; Long, Jessica B.; Section of General Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut ; Dostaler, Edward; and others

    2013-04-01

    Purpose: New radiation therapy modalities have broadened treatment options for older women with breast cancer, but it is unclear how clinical factors, geographic region, and physician preference affect the choice of radiation therapy modality. Methods and Materials: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database to identify women diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer from 1998 to 2007 who underwent breast-conserving surgery. We assessed the temporal trends in, and costs of, the adoption of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and brachytherapy. Using hierarchical logistic regression, we evaluated the relationship between the use of these new modalities and patient and regional characteristics. Results: Of 35,060 patients, 69.9% received conventional external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Although overall radiation therapy use remained constant, the use of IMRT increased from 0.0% to 12.6% from 1998 to 2007, and brachytherapy increased from 0.7% to 9.0%. The statistical variation in brachytherapy use attributable to the radiation oncologist and geographic region was 41.4% and 9.5%, respectively (for IMRT: 23.8% and 22.1%, respectively). Women undergoing treatment at a free-standing radiation facility were significantly more likely to receive IMRT than were women treated at a hospital-based facility (odds ratio for IMRT vs EBRT: 3.89 [95% confidence interval, 2.78-5.45]). No such association was seen for brachytherapy. The median radiation therapy cost per treated patient increased from $5389 in 2001 to $8539 in 2007. Conclusions: IMRT and brachytherapy use increased substantially from 1998 to 2007; overall, radiation therapy costs increased by more than 50%. Radiation oncologists played an important role in treatment choice for both types of radiation therapy, whereas geographic region played a bigger role in the use of IMRT than brachytherapy.

  4. Radiation Dose and Subsequent Risk for Stomach Cancer in Long-term Survivors of Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kleinerman, Ruth A.; Smith, Susan A.; Holowaty, Eric; Hall, Per; Pukkala, Eero; Vaalavirta, Leila; Stovall, Marilyn; Weathers, Rita; Gilbert, Ethel; Aleman, Berthe M.P.; Kaijser, Magnus; Andersson, Michael; Storm, Hans; Joensuu, Heikki; Lynch, Charles F.; and others

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To assess the doseresponse relationship for stomach cancer after radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We conducted a nested, matched casecontrol study of 201 cases and 378 controls among 53,547 5-year survivors of cervical cancer diagnosed from 1943 to 1995, from 5 international, population-based cancer registries. We estimated individual radiation doses to the site of the stomach cancer for all cases and to corresponding sites for the matched controls (overall mean stomach tumor dose, 2.56 Gy, range 0.03-46.1 and after parallel opposed pelvic fields, 1.63 Gy, range 0.12-6.3). Results: More than 90% of women received radiation therapy, mostly with external beam therapy in combination with brachytherapy. Stomach cancer risk was nonsignificantly increased (odds ratio 1.27-2.28) for women receiving between 0.5 and 4.9 Gy to the stomach cancer site and significantly increased at doses ?5 Gy (odds ratio 4.20, 95% confidence interval 1.41-13.4, P{sub trend}=.047) compared with nonirradiated women. A highly significant radiation doseresponse relationship was evident when analyses were restricted to the 131 cases (251 controls) whose stomach cancer was located in the middle and lower portions of the stomach (P{sub trend}=.003), whereas there was no indication of increasing risk with increasing dose for 30 cases (57 controls) whose cancer was located in the upper stomach (P{sub trend}=.23). Conclusions: Our findings show for the first time a significant linear doseresponse relationship for risk of stomach cancer in long-term survivors of cervical cancer.

  5. Toward Semi-automated Assessment of Target Volume Delineation in Radiotherapy Trials: The SCOPE 1 Pretrial Test Case

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gwynne, Sarah; Spezi, Emiliano; Wills, Lucy; Nixon, Lisette; Hurt, Chris; Joseph, George; Evans, Mererid; Griffiths, Gareth; Crosby, Tom; Staffurth, John

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate different conformity indices (CIs) for use in the analysis of outlining consistency within the pretrial quality assurance (Radiotherapy Trials Quality Assurance [RTTQA]) program of a multicenter chemoradiation trial of esophageal cancer and to make recommendations for their use in future trials. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Research Institute SCOPE 1 trial is an ongoing Cancer Research UK-funded phase II/III randomized controlled trial of chemoradiation with capecitabine and cisplatin with or without cetuximab for esophageal cancer. The pretrial RTTQA program included a detailed radiotherapy protocol, an educational package, and a single mid-esophageal tumor test case that were sent to each investigator to outline. Investigator gross tumor volumes (GTVs) were received from 50 investigators in 34 UK centers, and CERR (Computational Environment for Radiotherapy Research) was used to perform an assessment of each investigator GTV against a predefined gold-standard GTV using different CIs. A new metric, the local conformity index (l-CI), that can localize areas of maximal discordance was developed. Results: The median Jaccard conformity index (JCI) was 0.69 (interquartile range, 0.62-0.70), with 14 of 50 investigators (28%) achieving a JCI of 0.7 or greater. The median geographical miss index was 0.09 (interquartile range, 0.06-0.16), and the mean discordance index was 0.27 (95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.30). The l-CI was highest in the middle section of the volume, where the tumor was bulky and more easily definable, and identified 4 slices where fewer than 20% of investigators achieved an l-CI of 0.7 or greater. Conclusions: The available CIs analyze different aspects of a gold standard-observer variation, with JCI being the most useful as a single metric. Additional information is provided by the l-CI and can focus the efforts of the RTTQA team in these areas, possibly leading to semi-automated outlining assessment.

  6. Risk Factors Associated With Secondary Sarcomas in Childhood Cancer Survivors: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Henderson, Tara O.; Rajaraman, Preetha; Stovall, Marilyn; Constine, Louis S.; Olive, Aliza; Smith, Susan A.; Mertens, Ann; Meadows, Anna; Neglia, Joseph P.; Hammond, Sue; Whitton, John; Inskip, Peter D.; Robison, Leslie L.; Diller, Lisa

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Childhood cancer survivors have an increased risk of secondary sarcomas. To better identify those at risk, the relationship between therapeutic dose of chemotherapy and radiation and secondary sarcoma should be quantified. Methods and Materials: We conducted a nested case-control study of secondary sarcomas (105 cases, 422 matched controls) in a cohort of 14,372 childhood cancer survivors. Radiation dose at the second malignant neoplasm (SMN) site and use of chemotherapy were estimated from detailed review of medical records. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Excess odds ratio (EOR) was modeled as a function of radiation dose, chemotherapy, and host factors. Results: Sarcomas occurred a median of 11.8 years (range, 5.3-31.3 years) from original diagnosis. Any exposure to radiation was associated with increased risk of secondary sarcoma (OR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.8-9.5). A dose-response relation was observed, with elevated risks at doses between 10 and 29.9 Gy (OR = 15.6, 95% CI = 4.5-53.9), 30-49.9 Gy (OR = 16.0, 95% CI 3.8-67.8) and >50 Gy (OR = 114.1, 95% CI 13.5-964.8). Anthracycline exposure was associated with sarcoma risk (OR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.6-7.7) adjusting for radiation dose, other chemotherapy, and primary cancer. Adjusting for treatment, survivors with a first diagnosis of Hodgkin lymphoma (OR = 10.7, 95% CI = 3.1-37.4) or primary sarcoma (OR = 8.4, 95% CI = 3.2-22.3) were more likely to develop a sarcoma. Conclusions: Of the risk factors evaluated, radiation exposure was the most important for secondary sarcoma development in childhood cancer survivors; anthracycline chemotherapy exposure was also associated with increased risk.

  7. Reproductive Status at First Diagnosis Influences Risk of Radiation-Induced Second Primary Contralateral Breast Cancer in the WECARE Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brooks, Jennifer D.; Boice, John D.; Stovall, Marilyn; Reiner, Anne S.; Bernstein, Leslie; John, Esther M.; Lynch, Charles F.; Mellemkjaer, Lene; Knight, Julia A.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Haile, Robert W.; Smith, Susan A.; Capanu, Marinela; Bernstein, Jonine L.; Shore, Roy E.; Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: Our study examined whether reproductive and hormonal factors before, at the time of, or after radiation treatment for a first primary breast cancer modify the risk of radiation-induced second primary breast cancer. Methods and Materials: The Women's Environmental, Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study is a multicenter, population-based study of 708 women (cases) with asynchronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and 1399 women (controls) with unilateral breast cancer. Radiotherapy (RT) records, coupled with anthropomorphic phantom simulations, were used to estimate quadrant-specific radiation dose to the contralateral breast for each patient. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed to assess the relationship between reproductive factors and risk of CBC. Results: Women who were nulliparous at diagnosis and exposed to {>=}1 Gy to the contralateral breast had a greater risk for CBC than did matched unexposed nulliparous women (RR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0). No increased risk was seen in RT-exposed parous women (RR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.4). Women treated with RT who later became pregnant (8 cases and 9 controls) had a greater risk for CBC (RR = 6.0; 95% CI, 1.3-28.4) than unexposed women (4 cases and 7 controls) who also became pregnant. The association of radiation with risk of CBC did not vary by number of pregnancies, history of breastfeeding, or menopausal status at the time of first breast cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: Nulliparous women treated with RT were at an increased risk for CBC. Although based on small numbers, women who become pregnant after first diagnosis also seem to be at an increased risk for radiation-induced CBC.

  8. A Randomized Controlled Trial of Lorazepam to Reduce Liver Motion in Patients Receiving Upper Abdominal Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsang, Derek S.; Voncken, Francine E.M.; Tse, Regina V.; Sykes, Jenna; Wong, Rebecca K.S.; Dinniwell, Rob E.; Kim, John; Ringash, Jolie; Brierley, James D.; Cummings, Bernard J.; Brade, Anthony; Dawson, Laura A.

    2013-12-01

    Purpose: Reduction of respiratory motion is desirable to reduce the volume of normal tissues irradiated, to improve concordance of planned and delivered doses, and to improve image guided radiation therapy (IGRT). We hypothesized that pretreatment lorazepam would lead to a measurable reduction of liver motion. Methods and Materials: Thirty-three patients receiving upper abdominal IGRT were recruited to a double-blinded randomized controlled crossover trial. Patients were randomized to 1 of 2 study arms: arm 1 received lorazepam 2 mg by mouth on day 1, followed by placebo 4 to 8 days later; arm 2 received placebo on day 1, followed by lorazepam 4 to 8 days later. After tablet ingestion and daily radiation therapy, amplitude of liver motion was measured on both study days. The primary outcomes were reduction in craniocaudal (CC) liver motion using 4-dimensional kV cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and the proportion of patients with liver motion ?5 mm. Secondary endpoints included motion measured with cine magnetic resonance imaging and kV fluoroscopy. Results: Mean relative and absolute reduction in CC amplitude with lorazepam was 21% and 2.5 mm respectively (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-3.9, P=.001), as assessed with CBCT. Reduction in CC amplitude to ?5 mm residual liver motion was seen in 13% (95% CI 1%-25%) of patients receiving lorazepam (vs 10% receiving placebo, P=NS); 65% (95% CI 48%-81%) had reduction in residual CC liver motion to ?10 mm (vs 52% with placebo, P=NS). Patients with large respiratory movement and patients who took lorazepam ?60 minutes before imaging had greater reductions in liver CC motion. Mean reductions in liver CC amplitude on magnetic resonance imaging and fluoroscopy were nonsignificant. Conclusions: Lorazepam reduces liver motion in the CC direction; however, average magnitude of reduction is small, and most patients have residual motion >5 mm.

  9. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  10. Frequency and Clinical Significance of Previously Undetected Incidental Findings Detected on Computed Tomography Simulation Scans for Breast Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakamura, Naoki; Tsunoda, Hiroko; Takahashi, Osamu; Kikuchi, Mari; Honda, Satoshi; Shikama, Naoto; Akahane, Keiko; Sekiguchi, Kenji

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To determine the frequency and clinical significance of previously undetected incidental findings found on computed tomography (CT) simulation images for breast cancer patients. Methods and Materials: All CT simulation images were first interpreted prospectively by radiation oncologists and then double-checked by diagnostic radiologists. The official reports of CT simulation images for 881 consecutive postoperative breast cancer patients from 2009 to 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Potentially important incidental findings (PIIFs) were defined as any previously undetected benign or malignancy-related findings requiring further medical follow-up or investigation. For all patients in whom a PIIF was detected, we reviewed the clinical records to determine the clinical significance of the PIIF. If the findings from the additional studies prompted by a PIIF required a change in management, the PIIF was also recorded as a clinically important incidental finding (CIIF). Results: There were a total of 57 (6%) PIIFs. The 57 patients in whom a PIIF was detected were followed for a median of 17 months (range, 3-26). Six cases of CIIFs (0.7% of total) were detected. Of the six CIIFs, three (50%) cases had not been noted by the radiation oncologist until the diagnostic radiologist detected the finding. On multivariate analysis, previous CT examination was an independent predictor for PIIF (p = 0.04). Patients who had not previously received chest CT examinations within 1 year had a statistically significantly higher risk of PIIF than those who had received CT examinations within 6 months (odds ratio, 3.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-9.50; p = 0.01). Conclusions: The rate of incidental findings prompting a change in management was low. However, radiation oncologists appear to have some difficulty in detecting incidental findings that require a change in management. Considering cost, it may be reasonable that routine interpretations are given to those who have not

  11. Role of FDG-PET in the Implementation of Involved-Node Radiation Therapy for Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Girinsky, Théodore; Aupérin, Anne; Ribrag, Vincent; Elleuch, Manel; Fermé, Christophe; Bonniaud, Guillaume; Ruelle, Claude; Alberini, Jean-Louis; Celebic, Aljosa; Edeline, Véronique

    2014-08-01

    Purpose: This study examines the role of {sup 18}F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in the implementation of involved-node radiation therapy (INRT) in patients treated for clinical stages (CS) I/II supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Material: Patients with untreated CS I/II HL enrolled in the randomized EORTC/LYSA/FIL Intergroup H10 trial and participating in a real-time prospective quality assurance program were prospectively included in this study. Data were electronically obtained from 18 French cancer centers. All patients underwent APET-computed tomography (PET-CT) and a post-chemotherapy planning CT scanning. The pre-chemotherapy gross tumor volume (GTV) and the postchemotherapy clinical target volume (CTV) were first delineated on CT only by the radiation oncologist. The planning PET was then co-registered, and the delineated volumes were jointly analyzed by the radiation oncologist and the nuclear medicine physician. Lymph nodes undetected on CT but FDG-avid were recorded, and the previously determined GTV and CTV were modified according to FDG-PET results. Results: From March 2007 to February 2010, 135 patients were included in the study. PET-CT identified at least 1 additional FDG-avid lymph node in 95 of 135 patients (70.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.9%-77.9%) and 1 additional lymph node area in 55 of 135 patients (40.7%; 95% CI: 32.4%-49.5%). The mean increases in the GTV and CTV were 8.8% and 7.1%, respectively. The systematic addition of PET to CT led to a CTV increase in 60% of the patients. Conclusions: Pre-chemotherapy FDG-PET leads to significantly better INRT delineation without necessarily increasing radiation volumes.

  12. Individualized Positron Emission Tomography–Based Isotoxic Accelerated Radiation Therapy Is Cost-Effective Compared With Conventional Radiation Therapy: A Model-Based Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bongers, Mathilda L.; Coupé, Veerle M.H.; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Oberije, Cary; Lambin, Philippe; Uyl-de Groot, Cornelia A.

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate long-term health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography (PET)-based isotoxic accelerated radiation therapy treatment (PET-ART) compared with conventional fixed-dose CT-based radiation therapy treatment (CRT) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Our analysis uses a validated decision model, based on data of 200 NSCLC patients with inoperable stage I-IIIB. Clinical outcomes, resource use, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Maastro Clinic and the literature. Primary model outcomes were the difference in life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost/utility ratio (ICER and ICUR) of PET-ART versus CRT. Model outcomes were obtained from averaging the predictions for 50,000 simulated patients. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analyses were carried out. Results: The average incremental costs per patient of PET-ART were €569 (95% confidence interval [CI] €−5327-€6936) for 0.42 incremental LYs (95% CI 0.19-0.61) and 0.33 QALYs gained (95% CI 0.13-0.49). The base-case scenario resulted in an ICER of €1360 per LY gained and an ICUR of €1744 per QALY gained. The probabilistic analysis gave a 36% probability that PET-ART improves health outcomes at reduced costs and a 64% probability that PET-ART is more effective at slightly higher costs. Conclusion: On the basis of the available data, individualized PET-ART for NSCLC seems to be cost-effective compared with CRT.

  13. Results from two years of resistivity monitoring at Cerro Prieto

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilt, M.J.; Goldstein, N.E.

    1981-01-01

    Dipole-dipole resistivity measurements for the combined purposes of reservoir delineation and resistivity monitoring were first made at Cerro Prieto in 1978 and have continued on an annual basis since then. Two 20 km long dipole-dipole lines with permanently emplaced electrodes at one kilometer spacings were established over the field area; one of these lines is remeasured annually. Resistivity measurements are taken using a 25 kW generator capable of up to 80A output and a microprocessor controlled signal averaging receiver; this high power-low noise system is capable of highly accurate measurements even at large transmitter-receiver separations. Standard error calculations for collected data indicate errors less than 5% for all points, but 95% confidence intervals show error limits about 2 to 4 times higher. Analysis of collected data indicate little change in the apparent resistivity of the upper 300 m over the field production zone and that in this section measurements are relatively insensitive to the annual rainfall cycle. Apparent resistivity increases were observed over the older producing zone at Cerro Prieto at depths of 1 km and greater. Large zones of decreasing apparent resistivity were observed flanking the zone of increases on both sides. The increase in apparent resistivity in the production region may be due to an increasing fraction of steam in the reservoir resulting from a production related decline in reservoir pressure. Alternatively the increases may be the result of fresh water influx from the Colorado River. The zone of declining resistivity flanking the area of increase may be due to the movement of saline waters into the reservoir region as a result of the pressure decline. Quantitative modeling of observed changes is impractical owing to the high uncertainty in estimating apparent resistivity changes and the nonuniqueness of models.

  14. Assessing Adverse Events of Postprostatectomy Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Outcomes in the Regione Emilia-Romagna, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Showalter, Timothy N.; Hegarty, Sarah E.; Rabinowitz, Carol; Maio, Vittorio; Hyslop, Terry; Dicker, Adam P.; Louis, Daniel Z.

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: Although the likelihood of radiation-related adverse events influences treatment decisions regarding radiation therapy after prostatectomy for eligible patients, the data available to inform decisions are limited. This study was designed to evaluate the genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and sexual adverse events associated with postprostatectomy radiation therapy and to assess the influence of radiation timing on the risk of adverse events. Methods: The Regione Emilia-Romagna Italian Longitudinal Health Care Utilization Database was queried to identify a cohort of men who received radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer during 2003 to 2009, including patients who received postprostatectomy radiation therapy. Patients with prior radiation therapy were excluded. Outcome measures were genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and sexual adverse events after prostatectomy. Rates of adverse events were compared between the cohorts who did and did not receive postoperative radiation therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed for each class of adverse events, including models with radiation therapy as a time-varying covariate. Results: A total of 9876 men were included in the analyses: 2176 (22%) who received radiation therapy and 7700 (78%) treated with prostatectomy alone. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, the additional exposure to radiation therapy after prostatectomy was associated with increased rates of gastrointestinal (rate ratio [RR] 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.27; P<.001) and urinary nonincontinence events (RR 1.83; 95% CI 1.83-2.80; P<.001) but not urinary incontinence events or erectile dysfunction. The addition of the time from prostatectomy to radiation therapy interaction term was not significant for any of the adverse event outcomes (P>.1 for all outcomes). Conclusion: Radiation therapy after prostatectomy is associated with an increase in gastrointestinal and genitourinary adverse events. However

  15. Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Liu, Yang

    2014-11-16

    We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and amore » fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

  16. A balloon measurement of the isotopic composition of galactic cosmic ray iron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grove, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    The isotopic composition of galactic cosmic ray iron in the energy interval of approximately 1550 to 2200 MeV/nucleon was measured using a balloon-borne mass spectrometer. The instrument was flown from Palestine, Texas, in May 1984 for greater than 35 hours at an atmospheric depth of approximately 6 g/sq cm. Masses were derived by the Cerenkov-Energy technique. The Cerenkov counter employed a silica aerogel radiator with an index of refraction n = 1.1. Particle energies were measured in a stack of NaI(Tl) scintillators, which also provided particle trajectories. A detailed discussion of the sources of mass uncertainty is presented, including an analytic model of the contribution from fluctuations in the Cerenkov yield from knock-on electrons. The achieved mass resolution is approximately 0.65 amu, which is consistent with the theoretical estimate. An Fe-54/Fe-56 abundance ratio of 0.14(sup +0.18)(sub -0.11) and an 84 percent confidence upper limit of Fe-58/Fe-56 is less than or = to 0.07 at the top of the atmosphere is reported. Combining the data with those of precious measurements of the composition of iron at lower energies, and using a model of the galactic propagation, cosmic-ray source abundance ratios of Fe-54/Fe-56 = 0.064(sup +0.032)(sub -0.027) and Fe-58/F3-56 is less than or = to 0.062 were derived. These values are consistent with the composition of solar system iron and place restrictions on the conditions under which cosmic-ray iron is synthesized.

  17. Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Metal Stent for Malignant Hilar Obstruction: Results and Predictive Factors for Efficacy in 159 Patients from a Single Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Mingwu Bai, Ming Qi, Xingshun Li, Kai Yin, Zhanxin; Wang, Jianhong; Wu, Wenbing Zhen, Luanluan He, Chuangye; Fan, Daiming; Zhang, Zhuoli; Han, Guohong E-mail: Hangh@fmmu.edu.cn

    2015-06-15

    AimTo investigate and compare the efficacy and safety of percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting (PTBS) using a one- or two-stage procedure and determine the predictive factors for the efficacious treatment of malignant hilar obstruction (MHO).Methods159 consecutive patients with MHO who underwent PTBS were enrolled between January 2010 and June 2013. Patients were classified into one- or two-stage groups. Independent predictors of therapeutic success were evaluated using a logistic regression model.Results108 patients were treated with one-stage PTBS and 51 patients were treated with two-stage PTBS. The stents were technically successful in all patients. Successful drainage was achieved in 114 patients (71.4 %). A total of 42 early major complications were observed. Re-interventions were attempted in 23 patients during follow-up. The cumulative primary patency rates at 3, 6, and 12 months were 88, 71, and 48 %, respectively. Stent placement using a one- or two-stage procedure did not significantly affect therapeutic success, early major complications, median stent patency, or survival. A stent placed across the duodenal papilla was an independent predictor of therapeutic success (odds ratio = 0.262, 95 % confidence interval [0.107–0.642]). Patients with stents across papilla had a lower rate of cholangitis compared with patients who had a stent above papilla (7.1 vs. 20.3 %, respectively, p = 0.03).ConclusionsThe majority of patients with MHO who underwent one-stage PTBS showed similar efficacy and safety outcomes compared with those who underwent two-stage PTBS. Stent placement across the duodenal papilla was associated with a higher therapeutic success rate.

  18. Risk of Cerebrovascular Events in Elderly Patients After Radiation Therapy Versus Surgery for Early-Stage Glottic Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Julian C.; Kruser, Tim J.; Gondi, Vinai; Mohindra, Pranshu; Cannon, Donald M.; Harari, Paul M.; Bentzen, Sren M.

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: Comprehensive neck radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to increase cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk in advanced-stage head-and-neck cancer. We assessed whether more limited neck RT used for early-stage (T1-T2 N0) glottic cancer is associated with increased CVD risk, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Methods and Materials: We identified patients ?66 years of age with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer from SEER diagnosed from 1992 to 2007. Patients treated with combined surgery and RT were excluded. Medicare CPT codes for carotid interventions, Medicare ICD-9 codes for cerebrovascular events, and SEER data for stroke as the cause of death were collected. Similarly, Medicare CPT and ICD-9 codes for peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were assessed to serve as an internal control between treatment groups. Results: A total of 1413 assessable patients (RT, n=1055; surgery, n=358) were analyzed. The actuarial 10-year risk of CVD was 56.5% (95% confidence interval 51.5%-61.5%) for the RT cohort versus 48.7% (41.1%-56.3%) in the surgery cohort (P=.27). The actuarial 10-year risk of PVD did not differ between the RT (52.7% [48.1%-57.3%]) and surgery cohorts (52.6% [45.2%-60.0%]) (P=.89). Univariate analysis showed an increased association of CVD with more recent diagnosis (P=.001) and increasing age (P=.001). On multivariate Cox analysis, increasing age (P<.001) and recent diagnosis (P=.002) remained significantly associated with a higher CVD risk, whereas the association of RT and CVD remained not statistically significant (HR=1.11 [0.91-1.37,] P=.31). Conclusions: Elderly patients with early-stage laryngeal cancer have a high burden of cerebrovascular events after surgical management or RT. RT and surgery are associated with comparable risk for subsequent CVD development after treatment in elderly patients.

  19. Risk Analysis of the Space Shuttle: Pre-Challenger Bayeisan Prediction of Failure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana L. Kelly

    2008-02-01

    Dalal et al performed a statistical analysis of field and nozzle O-ring data collected prior to the ill-fated launch of the Challenger in January 1986. The purpose of their analysis was to show how statistical analysis could be used to provide information to decisionmakers prior to the launch, information that could have been expected to lead to a decision to abort the launch due to the low temperatures (~30o F.) present at the launch pad on the morning of the scheduled launch. Dalal et al. performed a frequentist analysis of the O-ring data, and found that a logistic regression model provided a relatively good fit to the past data. In the second portion of their paper, Dalal et al. propagated parameter uncertainties through the fitted logistic regression model in order to estimate the probability of shuttle failure due to O-ring failure at the estimated launch temperature of ~30o F. Because their analysis was frequentist in nature, probability distributions representing epistemic uncertainty in the input parameters were not available, and the authors had to resort to an approximate approach based on bootstrap confidence intervals. In this paper, we will re-evaluate the analyses of Dalal et al. from a Bayesian perspective. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling will be used to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters, and to sample from the posterior predictive distributions at the estimated launch temperature, a temperature that had not been observed in prior launches of the space shuttle. Uncertainties, which are represented by probability distributions in the Bayesian approach, are propagated through the model to obtain a probability distribution for O-ring failure, and subsequently for shuttle failure as a result of O-ring failure. No approximations are required in the Bayesian approach and the resulting distributions can be input to a decision analysis to obtain expected utility for the decision to launch.

  20. Associations of ATM Polymorphisms With Survival in Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Du, Zhongli; Zhang, Wencheng; Zhou, Yuling; Yu, Dianke; Chen, Xiabin; Chang, Jiang; Qiao, Yan; Zhang, Meng; Huang, Ying; Wu, Chen; Xiao, Zefen; Tan, Wen; and others

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene are associated with survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) receiving radiation therapy or chemoradiation therapy or surgery only. Methods and Materials: Four tagSNPs of ATM were genotyped in 412 individuals with clinical stage III or IV ESCC receiving radiation therapy or chemoradiation therapy, and in 388 individuals with stage I, II, or III ESCC treated with surgery only. Overall survival time of ESCC among different genotypes was estimated by Kaplan-Meier plot, and the significance was examined by log-rank test. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death from ESCC among different genotypes were computed by a Cox proportional regression model. Results: We found 2 SNPs, rs664143 and rs664677, associated with survival time of ESCC patients receiving radiation therapy. Individuals with the rs664143A allele had poorer median survival time compared with the rs664143G allele (14.0 vs 20.0 months), with the HR for death being 1.45 (95% CI 1.12-1.89). Individuals with the rs664677C allele also had worse median survival time than those with the rs664677T allele (14.0 vs 23.5 months), with the HR of 1.57 (95% CI 1.18-2.08). Stratified analysis showed that these associations were present in both stage III and IV cancer and different radiation therapy techniques. Significant associations were also found between the SNPs and locosregional progression or progression-free survival. No association between these SNPs and survival time was detected in ESCC patients treated with surgery only. Conclusion: These results suggest that the ATM polymorphisms might serve as independent biomarkers for predicting prognosis in ESCC patients receiving radiation therapy.

  1. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  2. Combined Modality Management of Retroperitoneal Sarcomas: A Single-Institution Series of 121 Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bishop, Andrew J.; Zagars, Gunar K.; Torres, Keila E.; Hunt, Kelly K.; Cormier, Janice N.; Feig, Barry W.; Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate local control, survival outcomes, and complication rates of patients treated with aggressive surgery and radiation therapy (RT) for retroperitoneal sarcomas (RPS). Methods and Materials: We reviewed the medical records of 121 consecutive patients treated for RPS with surgery and RT between 1965 and 2012. The most common histology was liposarcoma (n=42; 35%). The median follow-up was 100 months (range: 20-467 months). Eighty-six patients (71%) were treated for initial presentation of RPS, and 35 patients (29%) presented with and were treated for RPS recurrence. RT was preoperative in 88 patients (73%; median dose: 50.4 Gy) and postoperative in 33 patients (27%; median dose: 55 Gy). Results: Five-year local control and overall survival rates were 56% and 57%, respectively. Two factors were associated with higher risk of any intra-abdominal recurrence at 5 years: positive or uncertain margins (58% vs 30% for negative margins, P<.001; hazard ratio [HR]: 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-4.8) and disease recurrence after previous resection (76% vs 31% for de novo RPS, P<.001; HR: 4.4; 95% CI: 2.5-7.5). The 10-year complication rate was 5%, and RT-related complications were associated with postoperative RT (P<.001) and RT dose of ≥60 Gy (P<.001). Conclusions: Intra-abdominal RPS recurrence continues to be a significant challenge despite the use of aggressive surgery and radiation therapy. Given the complications associated with postoperative radiation therapy, we recommend that preoperative radiation therapy is the preferred strategy when combined modality therapy is recommended.

  3. Prospects for direct detection of dark matter in an effective theory approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Catena, Riccardo

    2014-07-01

    We perform the first comprehensive analysis of the prospects for direct detection of dark matter with future ton-scale detectors in the general 11-dimensional effective theory of isoscalar dark matter-nucleon interactions mediated by a heavy spin-1 or spin-0 particle. The theory includes 8 momentum and velocity dependent dark matter-nucleon interaction operators, besides the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent operators. From a variegated sample of 27 benchmark points selected in the parameter space of the theory, we simulate independent sets of synthetic data for ton-scale Germanium and Xenon detectors. From the synthetic data, we then extract the marginal posterior probability density functions and the profile likelihoods of the model parameters. The associated Bayesian credible regions and frequentist confidence intervals allow us to assess the prospects for direct detection of dark matter at the 27 benchmark points. First, we analyze the data assuming the knowledge of the correct dark matter nucleon-interaction type, as it is commonly done for the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent interactions. Then, we analyze the simulations extracting the dark matter-nucleon interaction type from the data directly, in contrast to standard analyses. This second approach requires an extensive exploration of the full 11-dimensional parameter space of the dark matter-nucleon effective theory. Interestingly, we identify 5 scenarios where the dark matter mass and the dark matter-nucleon interaction type can be reconstructed from the data simultaneously. We stress the importance of extracting the dark matter nucleon-interaction type from the data directly, discussing the main challenges found addressing this complex 11-dimensional problem.

  4. Intra-Arterial Rhenium-188 Lipiodol in the Treatment of Inoperable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Results of an IAEA-Sponsored Multination Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernal, Patricia; Raoul, Jean-Luc Vidmar, Gaj; Sereegotov, Erdenechimeg; Sundram, Felix X.; Kumar, Ajay; Jeong, Jae Min; Pusuwan, Pawana; Divgi, Chaitanya; Zanzonico, Pat; Stare, Janez; Buscombe, John; Chau Trinh Thi Minh; Saw, Maung Maung; Chen Shaoliang; Ogbac, Ruben; Padhy, Ajit K.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: Intra-arterial injections (IAI) of 131I-lipiodol is effective in treating hepatocellular carcinoma patients, but is expensive and requires a 7-day hospitalization in a radioprotection room. 188Re is inexpensive, requires no patient isolation, and can be used with lipiodol. Methods and Materials: This International Atomic Energy Agency-sponsored phase II trial aimed to assess the safety and the efficacy of a radioconjugate 188Re + lipiodol (188Re-Lip) in a large cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma patients from developing countries. A scout dose is used to determine the maximal tolerated dose (lungs <12 Gy, normal liver <30 Gy, bone marrow <1.5 Gy) and then the delivery of the calculated activity. Efficacy was assessed using response evaluation criteria in solid tumor (RECIST) and alpha-feto-protein ({alpha}FP) levels and severe adverse events were graded using the Common Toxicity Criteria of the National Cancer Institute scale v2.0. Results: The trial included 185 patients from eight countries. The procedure was feasible in all participating centers. One treatment was given to 134 patients; 42, 8, and 1 received two, three, and four injections, respectively. The injected activity during the first treatment was 100 mCi. Tolerance was excellent. We observed three complete responses and 19 partial responses (22% of evaluable patients, 95% confidence interval 16-35%); 1- and 2-year survivals were 46% and 23%. Some factors affected survival: country of origin, existence of a cirrhosis, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score, tumor dose, absence of progression, and posttreatment decrease in {alpha}FP level. Conclusions: IAI of 188Re-Lip in developing countries is feasible, safe, cost-effective, and deserves a phase III trial.

  5. Spatially Resolved Estimation of Ozone-related Mortality in the United States under Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent; Huang, Cheng; Liu, Yang

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in climate air pollution health impact has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). OBJECTIVES: We estimated county-level ozone (O3) and PM2.5 related excess mortality (EM) and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States in the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. METHODS: Using dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 and PM2.5 levels at 12 km resolution between the future (2057-2059) and present (2001-2004) under two RCP scenarios. Using concentration-response relationships in the literature and projected future populations, we estimated EM attributable to the changes in O3 and PM2.5. We finally analyzed the contribution of input variables to the uncertainty in the county-level EM estimation using Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1,082 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): -288 to 2,453), and -5,229 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (-7,212 to -3,246). Simulated PM2.5 changes resulted in a significant decrease in EM under the two RCPs. The uncertainty of O3-related EM estimates was mainly caused by RCP scenarios, whereas that of PM2.5-related EMs was mainly from concentration-response functions. CONCLUSION: EM estimates attributable to climate change-induced air pollution change as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space, and so are the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective mitigation and adaptation policy.

  6. Valproic Acid Use During Radiation Therapy for Glioblastoma Associated With Improved Survival

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, Christopher A.; Bishop, Andrew J.; Chang, Maria; Beal, Kathryn; Chan, Timothy A.

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: Valproic acid (VA) is an antiepileptic drug (AED) and histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor taken by patients with glioblastoma (GB) to manage seizures, and it can modulate the biologic effects of radiation therapy (RT). We investigated whether VA use during RT for GB was associated with overall survival (OS). Methods and Materials: Medical records of 544 adults with GB were retrospectively reviewed. Analyses were performed to determine the association of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group recursive partitioning analysis (RTOG RPA) class, seizure history, and concurrent temozolomide (TMZ) and AED use during RT with OS. Results: Seizures before the end of RT were noted in 217 (40%) patients, and 403 (74%) were taking an AED during RT; 29 (7%) were taking VA. Median OS in patients taking VA was 16.9 months (vs 13.6 months taking another AED, P=.16). Among patients taking an AED during RT, OS was associated with VA (P=.047; hazard ratio [HR], 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-1.07), and RTOG RPA class (P<.0001; HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.37-1.61). Of the 5 most common AEDs, only VA was associated with OS. Median OS of patients receiving VA and TMZ during RT was 23.9 months (vs 15.2 months for patients taking another AED, P=.26). When the analysis was restricted to patients who received concurrent TMZ, VA use was marginally associated with OS (P=.057; HR, 0.54; 95% CI, −0.09 to 1.17), independently of RTOG RPA class and seizure history. Conclusions: VA use during RT for GB was associated with improved OS, independently of RTOG RPA, seizure history, and concurrent TMZ use. Further studies of treatment that combines HDAC inhibitors and RT are warranted.

  7. Pulmonary Artery Invasion, High-Dose Radiation, and Overall Survival in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Han, Cheng-Bo; Wang, Wei-Li; Quint, Leslie; Xue, Jian-Xin; Matuszak, Martha; Ten Haken, Randall; Kong, Feng-Ming

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether high-dose radiation to the pulmonary artery (PA) affects overall survival (OS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Patients with medically inoperable/unresectable NSCLC treated with definitive radiation therapy in prospective studies were eligible for this study. Pulmonary artery involvement was defined on the basis of pretreatment chest CT and positron emission tomography/CT fusion. Pulmonary artery was contoured according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 1106 atlas, and dose-volume histograms were generated. Results: A total of 100 patients with a minimum follow-up of 1 year for surviving patients were enrolled: 82.0% underwent concurrent chemoradiation therapy. Radiation dose ranged from 60 to 85.5 Gy in 30-37 fractions. Patients with PA invasion of grade ≤2, 3, 4, and 5 had 1-year OS and median survival of 67% and 25.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.7-35.1), 62% and 22.2 months (95% CI 5.8-38.6), 90% and 35.8 months (95% CI 28.4-43.2), and 50% and 7.0 months, respectively (P=.601). Two of the 4 patients with grade 5 PA invasion died suddenly from massive hemorrhage at 3 and 4.5 months after completion of radiation therapy. Maximum and mean doses to PA were not significantly associated with OS. The V45, V50, V55, and V60 of PA were correlated significantly with a worse OS (P<.05). Patients with V45 >70% or V60 >37% had significantly worse OS (13.3 vs 37.9 months, P<.001, and 13.8 vs 37.9 months, P=.04, respectively). Conclusions: Grade 5 PA invasion and PA volume receiving more than 45-60 Gy may be associated with inferior OS in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  8. Muddy Water? Variation in Reporting Receipt of Breast Cancer Radiation Therapy by Population-Based Tumor Registries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Gary V.; Giordano, Sharon H.; Williams, Melanie; Jiang, Jing; Niu, Jiangong; MacKinnon, Jill; Anderson, Patricia; Wohler, Brad; Sinclair, Amber H.; Boscoe, Francis P.; Schymura, Maria J.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2013-07-15

    Purpose: To evaluate, in the setting of breast cancer, the accuracy of registry radiation therapy (RT) coding compared with the gold standard of Medicare claims. Methods and Materials: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)–Medicare data, we identified 73,077 patients aged ≥66 years diagnosed with breast cancer in the period 2001-2007. Underascertainment (1 - sensitivity), sensitivity, specificity, κ, and χ{sup 2} were calculated for RT receipt determined by registry data versus claims. Multivariate logistic regression characterized patient, treatment, and geographic factors associated with underascertainment of RT. Findings in the SEER–Medicare registries were compared with three non-SEER registries (Florida, New York, and Texas). Results: In the SEER–Medicare registries, 41.6% (n=30,386) of patients received RT according to registry coding, versus 49.3% (n=36,047) according to Medicare claims (P<.001). Underascertainment of RT was more likely if patients resided in a newer SEER registry (odds ratio [OR] 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60-1.80; P<.001), rural county (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.21-1.48; P<.001), or if RT was delayed (OR 1.006/day, 95% CI 1.006-1.007; P<.001). Underascertainment of RT receipt in SEER registries was 18.7% (95% CI 18.6-18.8%), compared with 44.3% (95% CI 44.0-44.5%) in non-SEER registries. Conclusions: Population-based tumor registries are highly variable in ascertainment of RT receipt and should be augmented with other data sources when evaluating quality of breast cancer care. Future work should identify opportunities for the radiation oncology community to partner with registries to improve accuracy of treatment data.

  9. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  10. Clinical evaluation of the iterative metal artifact reduction algorithm for CT simulation in radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Axente, Marian; Von Eyben, Rie; Hristov, Dimitre; Paidi, Ajay; Bani-Hashemi, Ali; Zeng, Chuan; Krauss, Andreas

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: To clinically evaluate an iterative metal artifact reduction (IMAR) algorithm prototype in the radiation oncology clinic setting by testing for accuracy in CT number retrieval, relative dosimetric changes in regions affected by artifacts, and improvements in anatomical and shape conspicuity of corrected images. Methods: A phantom with known material inserts was scanned in the presence/absence of metal with different configurations of placement and sizes. The relative change in CT numbers from the reference data (CT with no metal) was analyzed. The CT studies were also used for dosimetric tests where dose distributions from both photon and proton beams were calculated. Dose differences and gamma analysis were calculated to quantify the relative changes between doses calculated on the different CT studies. Data from eight patients (all different treatment sites) were also used to quantify the differences between dose distributions before and after correction with IMAR, with no reference standard. A ranking experiment was also conducted to analyze the relative confidence of physicians delineating anatomy in the near vicinity of the metal implants. Results: IMAR corrected images proved to accurately retrieve CT numbers in the phantom study, independent of metal insert configuration, size of the metal, and acquisition energy. For plastic water, the mean difference between corrected images and reference images was −1.3 HU across all scenarios (N = 37) with a 90% confidence interval of [−2.4, −0.2] HU. While deviations were relatively higher in images with more metal content, IMAR was able to effectively correct the CT numbers independent of the quantity of metal. Residual errors in the CT numbers as well as some induced by the correction algorithm were found in the IMAR corrected images. However, the dose distributions calculated on IMAR corrected images were closer to the reference data in phantom studies. Relative spatial difference in the dose

  11. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  12. Use of Dual Frequency Identification Sonar to Determine Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Escapement in the Secesh River, Idaho ; Annual Report, January 2008 – December 2008.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kucera, Paul A.

    2009-06-26

    Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1992 (NMFS 1992). The Secesh River represents the only stream in the Snake River basin where natural origin (wild) salmon escapement monitoring occurs at the population level, absent a supplementation program. As such the Secesh River has been identified as a long term salmon escapement and productivity monitoring site by the Nez Perce Tribe Department of Fisheries Resources Management. Salmon managers will use this data for effective population management and evaluation of the effect of conservation actions on a natural origin salmon population. The Secesh River also acts as a reference stream for supplementation program comparison. Dual frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) was used to determine adult spring and summer Chinook salmon escapement in the Secesh River in 2008. DIDSON technology was selected because it provided a non-invasive method for escapement monitoring that avoided listed species trapping and handling incidental mortality, and fish impedance related concerns. The DIDSON monitoring site was operated continuously from June 13 to September 14. The first salmon passage was observed on July 3. DIDSON site total estimated salmon escapement, natural and hatchery fish, was 888 fish {+-} 65 fish (95% confidence interval). Coefficient of variation associated with the escapement estimate was 3.7%. The DIDSON unit was operational 98.1% of the salmon migration period. Adult salmon migration timing in the Secesh River occurred over 74 days from July 3 to September 14, with 5,262 total fish passages observed. The spawning migration had 10%, median, and 90% passage dates of July 8, July 16, and August 12, respectively. The maximum number of net upstream migrating salmon was above the DIDSON monitoring site on August 27. Validation monitoring of DIDSON target counts with underwater optical cameras occurred for species identification. A total of 860 optical

  13. High resolution data acquisition

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thornton, Glenn W.; Fuller, Kenneth R.

    1993-01-01

    A high resolution event interval timing system measures short time intervals such as occur in high energy physics or laser ranging. Timing is provided from a clock (38) pulse train (37) and analog circuitry (44) for generating a triangular wave (46) synchronously with the pulse train (37). The triangular wave (46) has an amplitude and slope functionally related to the time elapsed during each clock pulse in the train. A converter (18, 32) forms a first digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the start of the event interval and a second digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the end of the event interval. A counter (26) counts the clock pulse train (37) during the interval to form a gross event interval time. A computer (52) then combines the gross event interval time and the first and second digital values to output a high resolution value for the event interval.

  14. High resolution data acquisition

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thornton, G.W.; Fuller, K.R.

    1993-04-06

    A high resolution event interval timing system measures short time intervals such as occur in high energy physics or laser ranging. Timing is provided from a clock, pulse train, and analog circuitry for generating a triangular wave synchronously with the pulse train (as seen in diagram on patent). The triangular wave has an amplitude and slope functionally related to the time elapsed during each clock pulse in the train. A converter forms a first digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the start of the event interval and a second digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the end of the event interval. A counter counts the clock pulse train during the interval to form a gross event interval time. A computer then combines the gross event interval time and the first and second digital values to output a high resolution value for the event interval.

  15. ELECTRICAL LOAD ANTICIPATOR AND RECORDER

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Werme, J.E.

    1961-09-01

    A system is described in which an indication of the prevailing energy consumption in an electrical power metering system and a projected power demand for one demand in terval is provided at selected increments of time within the demand interval. Each watt-hour meter in the system is provided with an impulse generator that generates two impulses for each revolution of the meter disc. In each demand interval, for example, one half-hour, of the metering system, the total impulses received from all of the meters are continuously totaled for each 5-minute interval and multiplied by a number from 6 to 1 depending upon which 5- minute interval the impulses were received. This value is added to the total pulses received in the intervals preceding the current 5-minute interval within the half-hour demand interval tc thereby provide an indication of the projected power demand every 5 minutes in the demand interval.

  16. Optimizing Benefits of Testing Efforts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, Sarah

    2015-09-14

    This presentation explores the need to prioritize testing efforts in order to achieve the highest confidence in PV reliability at the lowest cost.

  17. Fun With The Sun- Teacher's Activity Guide for Elementary Grades K-2

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Teacher's guide to help elementary students goain confidence and understanding of renewable and non-renewable energy resources by investigating, questioning, and experimenting with scientific ideas.

  18. Sustainability at Home: Raising the Bar | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    The guidelines give you confidence about getting quality work done by helping you: Compare competing bids based on credentials that are consistent nationwide Set standardized ...

  19. Educational Opportunities in Bioenergy - ORNL

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... What you gain from it depends mostly on you. * Be confident but not arrogant, take direction well * Good communication skills - This is a job. Your communication (including emails) ...

  20. Chapter 16: Retrocommissioning Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ... particular meter (e.g., electricity meter) to confidently ... or reporting consumption data and (2) confirm the reporting period inputs via the BAS front-end system, when ...