Joint Stocking and Product Offer Decisions Under the Multinomial Logit Model
Topaloglu, Huseyin
Joint Stocking and Product Offer Decisions Under the Multinomial Logit Model Huseyin Topaloglu This paper studies a joint stocking and product offer problem. We have access to a number of products to satisfy the demand over a finite selling horizon. Given that customers choose among the set of offered
Ahn, Hongshik
-dimensional data using the logistic regression model as a base clas- sifier. CERP is similar to random subspace (Ho classification problems using ensem- bles of multinomial logistic regression models. A multinomial logit model is used as a base classifier in ensembles from random partitions of predictors. The multinomial logit
Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit
Train, Kenneth
2000-01-01
Customers’ Choice Among Energy Supplier Simulation based oncustomers’ choice of energy supplier. Surveyed customerspreferences for energy suppliers, such that a mixed logit is
Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit: Households' Choice of Electricity Supplier
Revelt, David; Train, Kenneth
2000-01-01
M a y 2000 Keywords: energy suppliers, mixed logit, tastecustomers' choice among energy suppliers in conjoint-typecustomers' choice o f energy supplier and estimate the value
Approximation Methods for Pricing Problems under the Nested Logit Model with Price Bounds
Rusmevichientong, Paat
Approximation Methods for Pricing Problems under the Nested Logit Model with Price Bounds W@orie.cornell.edu September 5, 2013 Abstract We consider two variants of a pricing problem under the nested logit model. In the first variant, the set of products offered to customers is fixed and we want to determine the prices
Multinomial Approximating Models for Options Hemantha S. B. Herath* and Pranesh Kumar**
Kumar, Pranesh
, Johnson 1987, and Stulz 1982). These models are useful for valuing real options having multiple sourcesMultinomial Approximating Models for Options Hemantha S. B. Herath* and Pranesh Kumar** Business@unbc.ca; Tel: (250) 960-6671 #12;2 Multinomial Approximating Models for Options Abstract. We ensure non
Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge
Low, Steven H.
Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge form 27 October 2010 Accepted 27 October 2010 Available online 4 November 2010 Keywords: Coal reserves Coal resources Coal production estimates IPCC Logistic model Cumulative normal model An estimate
Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data
Sekhon, Jasjeet S.
Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data Walter R research on labor rela- tions (Card 1990), the relationship between patents and R&D (Hausman, Hall counts in political science includes studies of child care services (Bratton and Ray 2002), gender
A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation
Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL] [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL] [ORNL
2010-01-01
This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.
Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No.
can be used to control, manage, and shape individual traveler behavior and aggregate travel demand multinomial logit-ordered response structure that (a) accommodates differential sensitivity to the built The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts
1 October 17, 2001 Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics ARE 213, Fall 2001
Sadoulet, Elisabeth
, GA. "Estimating the demand for a new technology: Bt cotton and insecticide policies." American Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, June 1975. (Multinomial logit) Vandeveer, M.L. and E.T. Loehman. "Farmer Response of Wisconsin Milk Producers - An Aggregate Analysis." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995 Nov, V77
Missing Data Problems in Machine Learning Benjamin Marlin
Meliou, Alexandra
Mixture/Logit-vd RBM/E-v Results Classification with Missing Data Generative Framework and LDA Discriminative Frameworks Linear Logistic Regression Kernel Logistic Regression Neural Networks Results Missing of clusters or hidden units. Number of multinomial values. Number of classes. Number of data dimensions
Logit Models for Estimating Urban Area Through Travel
Talbot, Eric
2011-10-21
because the variable of interest is a proportion, rather than a continuous number. To improve on these previous models, the research described in this document developed a system of two models. Each model was developed using logistic regression... to develop through trip tables. For predictor variables, the models use results from a very simple gravity model; the average daily traffic (ADT) at each external station as a proportion of the total ADT at all available external stations; the number...
Localized Smoothing for Multinomial Language Models Victor Lavrenko
Edinburgh, University of
in applications of proba- bilistic models to language. In this report we introduce the zero frequency problem techniques that have proven successful in Information Retrieval. The rest of this report is structured of ¡ under can be rewritten as: ¢¤£(¡§¦ ©¨ @BA6CEDGF(H"I#PRQ S T$U7V ¢¤£(¡8RW9§¦ ©¨ The unigram assumption
Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression: Fast Algorithms and Generalization Bounds
Hartemink, Alexander
. Experimental results on standard benchmark data sets attest to the accuracy, sparsity, and efficiency the relevance vector machine (RVM) [35], the sparse probit regression (SPR) algorithm [10], [11], sparse online Gaussian processes [6], the informative vector machine (IVM) [22], and the joint classifier and feature
NN-OPT: Neural Network for Option Pricing Using Multinomial Tree
Magdon-Ismail, Malik
on historical data. Finally, we illustrate the power of such a framework by developing a real time trading7]. Other related topics can be found in [2, 8]. Option trading by directly predicting prices and then building trading sys- tems based on the predictions have been considered in the neural network liter- ature
A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield MunicipalTechnicalInformation4563 LLNL(Technicalentanglements for linear and(Journal
A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield MunicipalTechnicalInformation4563 LLNL(Technicalentanglements for linear and(Journal(Journal
Redgate, P.E.; Piepel, G.F.
1996-02-01
This report presents the results of applying statistical empirical modeling techniques to primary crystalline phase at the liquidus temperature (T{sub L}) and (ii) whether liquidus temperature is above or below 1050{degree}C (1OO{degree}C below a melting temperature of 1150{degree}C). Data used in modeling primary crystalline phase and liquidus temperate are from the Composition Variability Study (CVS) of Hanford waste glass compositions and properties. The majority of the 123 CVS glasses are categorized into one of 13 primary crystalline phases (at the liquidus temperature). They are also classified as to having T{sub L} Above or Below 1050{degree}C. Two common statistical methods used to model such categorical data are the multinomial logit and classification tree models. The classification tree models provided an overall better modeling approach than did the multinomial logit models. The performance of models in this report should be compared to the performance of the revised ``Development of Models and Software for Liquidus Temperature of Glasses of HWVP Products`` models from Ecole Polytechnique. If the Ecole Polytechnique models perform better than the models discussed in this report, no additional effort on these models would be needed. However, if the converse is true, it may be worthwhile to invest additional effort on statistical empirical modeling methods.
Bains, Amrit Anoop Singh
2010-10-12
technical challenges, which has lead to escalation of danger on a construction site. Data from OSHA show that crane accidents have increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004. By analyzing the characteristics of all the crane accident inspections, we can better...
The Belief Bias Effect Is Aptly Named: A Reply to Klauer and Kellen (2011)
Wixted, John T.
2011-01-01
) multinomial processing tree (MPT) model to confidence ratings (henceforth, MPTC) describes the data better
California at Berkeley, University of
-aided manufacturing practices and statistical process control practices in addition to commonly cited practices improvement rates of the fabs are compared, and manufacturing yield improve- ment practices are evaluated such as particle control and advanced manufacturing technology. #12;Introduction The results of a world-wide study
Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market
Greene, D.L.
2004-08-23
Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.
Bernoulli 19(1), 2013, 295307 DOI: 10.3150/11-BEJ393
McKeague, Ian
], Franck [7] and Mau [12]. For more than two populations, Wang [21] discussed the LRT in the multinomial
Stadler, Michael
2009-01-01
electricity price Electricity demand Logit function On-siteto calculate the electricity demand distribution. Expertvalue of the total electricity demand is expected to reach 2
Essays in the Labor Economics of Healthcare
Johnson, Erin Metcalf
2010-01-01
from Correlated Random Effects Logits - PCI Sample (Sections iii List of Figures CABG, PCI and Stent Claims Overof patient outcomes in PCI and CABG. These spe- cialties
Three essays in labor economics
Tong, Patricia K.
2010-01-01
reverse causal- ity by collapsing pre-reform data for years 1994-1995 to the state level and using a multinomial logistic
Michalek, Jeremy J.
various regulation scenarios. Keywords: Design Optimization; Discrete Choice Analysis; Logit; Game Theory. INTRODUCTION Automobile manufacturers aim to produce vehicle designs that earn market share and maximize designers and engineers. Market research and econometric methods, such as conjoint analysis and discrete
Xing, Yan; Handy, Susan L.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.
2010-01-01
is the binary logit proportions model assigning the re-Factors associated with proportions and miles of bicyclinglanes per mile, and the proportion of off-road routes seem
SAS MACRO QIF MANUAL: Version 0.2 Peter X.-K. Song1 and Zhichang Jiang2
Song, Peter X.
linear models (MGLMs) or population-average models using Proc GENMOD (to generate initial values), Proc Normal identity Logistic Binomial logit Log-Linear Poisson log Gamma-Reg Gamma reciprocal Version 0. This macro uses PROC GENMOD to give initial values to begin Newton-Raphson algorithm for the search
Variable Selection in Wide Data Sets
Stine, Robert A.
predictions allow various link functions ... · Linear regression has identity, logistic has logit link. E(Y |X of interactions among the predictors, then the feature space becomes larger still. Which features generate = 0.85 using q = 28 predictors. With n = 85, F = 12 with p-value
Michalek, Jeremy J.
profitability, since some designs are associated with greater market uncertainty than others. We propose for market systems, delta method, logit, design optimization, robust design, design under uncertainty development (NPD) literature has been dedicated to the integration of engineering design and marketing
Logistic regression Weakly informative priors
Gelman, Andrew
Logistic regression Weakly informative priors Conclusions Bayesian generalized linear models default p #12;Logistic regression Weakly informative priors Conclusions Classical logistic regression The problem of separation Bayesian solution Logistic regression -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 0.00.20.40.60.81.0 y = logit
Orians, Colin
on the susceptibility of two species of willows (Salix eriocephala and S. sericea) and their hybrid to a pathogen plant susceptibility · Hybrid performance · Logit modeling · Salix spp. · Soil nutrient heterogeneity; Christensen et al. 1995). Two common willows of eastern North America, Salix eriocephala and S. sericea
A Structural Analysis of Vehicle Design Responses to Corporate Average Fuel Economy Policy
Michalek, Jeremy J.
09-0588 A Structural Analysis of Vehicle Design Responses to Corporate Average Fuel Economy Policy, Michalek, and Hendrickson 1 ABSTRACT The U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations, which aim fuel economy; Energy policy; Oligopolistic market; Mixed logit #12;Shiau, Michalek, and Hendrickson 2 1
PUBLICATIONS 1 Articles `a para^itre
Marcotte, Patrice
. F. Gilbert, M. Anjos, P. Marcotte and G. Savard "Optimal design of bilateral contracts for energy and G. Savard "Network pricing of congestion-free networks: the elastic and linear demand case" `a para. F. Gilbert, P. Marcotte and G. Savard "A numerical study of the logit network pricing problem" `a
Microsimulation of Single-family Residential Land Use for Market Equilibria
Kockelman, Kara M.
market equilibria using microeconomic theory and disaggregate spatial data. A logit model and notions-time assumptions. Consistent with bid-rent theory, housing market equilibrium for each scenario was reached and Bockstael 2004, Bina et al. 2005). Microeconomic theory tested using disaggregate #12;spatial data offer
Acta Arith. 148(2011), no.1, 63-76. p-ADIC VALUATIONS OF SOME SUMS
Sun, Zhi-Wei
2011-01-01
Acta Arith. 148(2011), no.1, 63-76. p-ADIC VALUATIONS OF SOME SUMS OF MULTINOMIAL COEFFICIENTS Zhi number 1 k+1 2k k . This implies several con- jectures of Guo and Zeng [GZ]. We also raise two;2 ZHI-WEI SUN 1. Introduction Let p be a prime. In 2006 Pan and Sun [PS] obtained various congru- ences
LogisticLDA: Regularizing Latent Dirichlet Allocation by Logistic Regression
: upstream and downstream models. In "upstream" models, hidden topics are generated by conditioning 160169 #12;a document). Examples of upstream models include the Dirichlet Multinomial Regression model (DMR) (Mimno and McCallum, 2008), and the Theme Model (Li and Perona, 2005). Although upstream
Towards Bayesian Reinforcement Learning
Poupart, Pascal
al. (2005); Jaulmes, Pineau et al. (2005); Poupart, Vlassis et al. (2006) Â· Model-free Bayesian RL: Engel, Mannor, et al. (2003, 2005) Â· Bayesian policy gradient algorithms: Ghavamsadeh, Engel (2006) #12. by random variables Â i.e., sas' = Pr(s'|s,a): random variable in [0,1] Â i.e., sa = Pr(Â·|s,a): multinomial
Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models
Atwood, C.L.
1995-12-01
This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods.
No evidence for association between SLC11A1 and visceral leishmaniasis in India
Mehrotra, Sanjana; Oommen, Joyce; Mishra, Anshuman; Sudharshan, Medhavi; Tiwary, Puja; Jamieson, Sarra E.; Fakiola, Michaela; Rani, Deepa Selvi; Thangaraj, Kumarasamy; Rai, Madhukar; Sundar, Shyam; Blackwell, Jenefer M.
2011-05-20
, religion, caste and geographic dis- trict of recruitment (see Table 1B). Diagnosis of VL was based on presence of typical clinical features of VL i.e. fever with rigors and chills, splenomegaly, weight loss and pancytopenia followed by demonstration... performed to take account of multiple trios within a pedigree. Association tests for the replication case- control sample were undertaken using logistic regression analysis performed in PLINK [29] or LOGIT (Stata) using an additive model and a genotypic test...
Discrete Math Notes 1 The Twelve-Fold Way
Lee, Carl
)) these must sum to nm : a1,...,anZ, a1,...,an0, a1+Â·Â·Â·+an=m m a1, . . . , an = nm . 2 #12;Also we discussed the Multinomial Theorem, which states that (x1 + Â· Â· Â· + xn)m = a1,...,anZ, a1,...,an0, a1+Â·Â·Â·+an=m m a1
Peterson, James T.
1999-12-01
Natural resource professionals are increasingly required to develop rigorous statistical models that relate environmental data to categorical responses data. Recent advances in the statistical and computing sciences have led to the development of sophisticated methods for parametric and nonparametric analysis of data with categorical responses. The statistical software package CATDAT was designed to make some of these relatively new and powerful techniques available to scientists. The CATDAT statistical package includes 4 analytical techniques: generalized logit modeling; binary classification tree; extended K-nearest neighbor classification; and modular neural network.
Thompson, Simon G.; Burgess, Stephen
2010-03-08
of the phenotype, the different genotypes give rise to groups which, under certain assumptions, are randomly assigned and so independent of measured and unmeasured confounders (U) and the effects of reverse causation. The assumptions underlying an IV analysis... ) are replaced by logit(pj) and 1n1j + 1n2j respectively where pj is the observed probability of the event in group j, n1j the number of events and n2j the number of non-events. Alternatively, we can model the probability of an event directly using logistic...
Classification of birth weights based on dichotomous variables
Perry, Lynn McIver
1980-01-01
. Multinomial Models With Three Pred1ctor Var1ables . 12. M1sclassif1cation Probabilities . 13. Models With Four Predictor Variables ? SMOK, OH, NS, OA 10 13 15 17 29 30 36 37 40 45 14. Models With Four Predictor Variables ? SNOK, OH, NS, CYCR.... . . 46 15. Models With Four Pred1ctor Variables ? SMOK, OH, OA, CYCR. . . 47 16. Models With Four Predictor Variables ? SMOK, OH, WH, CYCR. . . 48 17. Models With Four Predictor Variables ? SMOK, NEDU, NS, OA. . . 49 18. Models With Four Predictor...
Yoshio Uwano; Hiromi Yuya
2008-07-25
In the paper of Uwano [Czech. J. of Phys., vol.56, pp.1311-1316 (2006)], a gradient system is found on the space of density matrices endowed with the quantum SLD Fisher metric (to be referred to as the quantum information space) that realizes a generalization of a gradient system on the space of multinomial distributions studied by Nakamura [Japan J. Indust. Appl. Math., vol.10, pp.179-189 (1993)]. On motived by those papers, the present paper aims to construct a gradient system on the quantum information space that realizes the Karmarkar flow, the continuous limit of the Karmarkar projective scaling algorithm for linear programming.
User's manual for geophysical well-logging software programs
Petrie, G.M.; Gibson, D.; Blair, S.C.
1983-02-01
Since 1958 the Ground-Water Surveillance Program for the Hanford Site has made geophysical logging measurements in most of the 800 wells and deep boreholes that have been drilled on the Hanford Site. In 1980 the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), which conducts the Ground-Water Surveillance Program, began forming a computerized data base for storing and retrieving geophysical well log data and developing software for quantitative analysis of the well log data. This report, designed to serve as a user's guide, documents the data base system that handles the well log data. Two programs, DIGLOG1 and LOGIT, are used to manipulate the data. The program DIGLOG1 translates analog paper strip charts into digital format; the program LOGIT is a general utility program that edits, displays, checks, stores, writes, and deletes sets of well log data. These two programs do not provide sophisticated display and analytical capabilities; rather, they provide programs that give the user easy access to powerful standard analytical software.
MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES
Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L
2013-10-01
How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.
Simplifying the Reinsch algorithm for the Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series
Alexander Van-Brunt; Matt Visser
2015-01-27
The Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series computes the quantity \\begin{equation*} Z(X,Y)=\\ln\\left( e^X e^Y \\right) = \\sum_{n=1}^\\infty z_n(X,Y), \\end{equation*} where $X$ and $Y$ are not necessarily commuting, in terms of homogeneous multinomials $z_n(X,Y)$ of degree $n$. (This is essentially equivalent to computing the so-called Goldberg coefficients.) The Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series is a general purpose tool of wide applicability in mathematical physics, quantum physics, and many other fields. The Reinsch algorithm for the truncated series permits one to calculate up to some fixed order $N$ by using $(N+1)\\times(N+1)$ matrices. We show how to further simplify the Reinsch algorithm, making implementation (in principle) utterly straightforward. This helps provide a deeper understanding of the Goldberg coefficients and their properties. For instance we establish strict bounds (and some equalities) on the number of non-zero Goldberg coefficients. Unfortunately, we shall see that the number of terms in the multinomial $z_n(X,Y)$ often grows very rapidly (in fact exponentially) with the degree $n$. We also present some closely related results for the symmetric product \\begin{equation*} S(X,Y)=\\ln\\left( e^{X/2} e^Y e^{X/2} \\right) = \\sum_{n=1}^\\infty s_n(X,Y). \\end{equation*} Variations on these themes are straightforward. For instance, one can just as easily consider the series \\begin{equation*} L(X,Y)=\\ln\\left( e^{X} e^Y e^{-X} e^{-Y}\\right) = \\sum_{n=1}^\\infty \\ell_n(X,Y). \\end{equation*} This type of series is of interest, for instance, when considering parallel transport around a closed curve. Several other related series are investigated.
Boer, Rizaldi; Wasrin, Upik R.; Hendri, Perdinan; Dasanto,Bambang D.; Makundi, Willy; Hero, Julius; Ridwan, M.; Masripatin, Nur
2007-06-01
Rehabilitation of degraded forest land throughimplementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbonstock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which iscommonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestrationbenefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects thatcould potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of elevensub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra,Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/coverbeing converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. Thepredictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area,distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agriculturalland, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, populationdensity and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and withoutcarbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated asbeing significant in their contribution to land use cover change. Theresults of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be largeenough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefitsduring the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitiveto changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. Byreducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10 percent for thebaseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collectionand refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study hasdemonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assessleakage.
Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study
Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J.; Anderson, J.L.
1997-12-01
To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.
Targeted chlorination for biofouling control in steam electric power plant condenser tubes
Tewari, R.N.
1991-01-01
The objective of this study was to develop an understanding of the relationships between biofouling, heat transfer, and to assess the technical feasibility of the targeted chlorination (TC) concept as an alternative to conventional chlorination in once-through seawater cooling systems. A shell and tube type heat exchanger was designed and constructed. The test facility monitored biofouling growth by measuring heat transfer resistance (thermal performance), pressure drop (hydraulic performance), and biomass deposit. Biocide effectiveness was determined by triplicates average residual biomass. Tests were run to evaluate 18 treatment scenarios. Preliminary tests were done to determine variabilities between shells and among tubes, effect of heating, very high dose chlorine burn out and regrowth behavior. LOGIT, a software package by the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) for sigmoidal fit, was used for the preliminary test data. The other three tests studied effect of chlorine dosage (low, high), contact time, and frequency. To minimize variability in results, triplicates for each chlorination scheme were used. The total amount of chlorine applied (flow rate Q x C x T x F) ranged from about 400 to 4,000 pounds per million gallons per day (an equivalent to a CTF range of 6 to 60 ppm.min/day). With respect to efficiency of biofouling control, it was found by regression analysis that among four variables C, T, (CT) and F, F was most significant and C, T, and (CT) were relatively equal in ranking.
Simplifying the Reinsch algorithm for the Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series
Van-Brunt, Alexander
2015-01-01
The Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series computes the quantity \\begin{equation*} Z(X,Y)=\\ln\\left( e^X e^Y \\right) = \\sum_{n=1}^\\infty z_n(X,Y), \\end{equation*} where $X$ and $Y$ are not necessarily commuting, in terms of homogeneous multinomials $z_n(X,Y)$ of degree $n$. (This is essentially equivalent to computing the so-called Goldberg coefficients.) The Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff series is a general purpose tool of wide applicability in mathematical physics, quantum physics, and many other fields. The Reinsch algorithm for the truncated series permits one to calculate up to some fixed order $N$ by using $(N+1)\\times(N+1)$ matrices. We show how to further simplify the Reinsch algorithm, making implementation (in principle) utterly straightforward. This helps provide a deeper understanding of the Goldberg coefficients and their properties. For instance we establish strict bounds (and some equalities) on the number of non-zero Goldberg coefficients. Unfortunately, we shall see that the number of terms in the multino...
What Dose of External-Beam Radiation is High Enough for Prostate Cancer?
Eade, Thomas N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Hanlon, Alexandra L. [Department of Public Health, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Hanks, Gerald E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Pollack, Alan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States)]. E-mail: Alan.Pollack@fccc.edu
2007-07-01
Purpose: To quantify the radiotherapy dose-response of prostate cancer, adjusted for prognostic factors in a mature cohort of men treated relatively uniformly at a single institution. Patients and Methods: The study cohort consisted of 1,530 men treated with three-dimensional conformal external-beam radiotherapy between 1989 and 2002. Patients were divided into four isocenter dose groups: <70 Gy (n = 43), 70-74.9 Gy (n = 552), 75-79.9 Gy (n = 568), and {>=}80 Gy (n = 367). The primary endpoints were freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), defined by American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) and Phoenix (nadir + 2.0 ng/mL) criteria, and freedom from distant metastases (FFDM). Multivariate analyses were performed and adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated. Logit regression dose-response functions were determined at 5 and 8 years for FFBF and at 5 and 10 years for FFDM. Results: Radiotherapy dose was significant in multivariate analyses for FFBF (ASTRO and Phoenix) and FFDM. Adjusted 5-year estimates of ASTRO FFBF for the four dose groups were 60%, 68%, 76%, and 84%. Adjusted 5-year Phoenix FFBFs for the four dose groups were 70%, 81%, 83%, and 89%. Adjusted 5-year and 10-year estimates of FFDM for the four dose groups were 96% and 93%, 97% and 93%, 99% and 95%, and 98% and 96%. Dose-response functions showed an increasing benefit for doses {>=}80 Gy. Conclusions: Doses of {>=}80 Gy are recommended for most men with prostate cancer. The ASTRO definition of biochemical failure does not accurately estimate the effects of radiotherapy at 5 years because of backdating, compared to the Phoenix definition, which is less sensitive to follow-up and more reproducible over time.
Bakhshandeh, Mohsen; Hashemi, Bijan; Mahdavi, Seied Rabi Mehdi; Nikoofar, Alireza; Vasheghani, Maryam; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan
2013-02-01
Purpose: To determine the dose-response relationship of the thyroid for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head-and-neck radiation therapy, according to 6 normal tissue complication probability models, and to find the best-fit parameters of the models. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five patients treated with primary or postoperative radiation therapy for various cancers in the head-and-neck region were prospectively evaluated. Patient serum samples (tri-iodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], free tri-iodothyronine, and free thyroxine) were measured before and at regular time intervals until 1 year after the completion of radiation therapy. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of the patients' thyroid gland were derived from their computed tomography (CT)-based treatment planning data. Hypothyroidism was defined as increased TSH (subclinical hypothyroidism) or increased TSH in combination with decreased free thyroxine and thyroxine (clinical hypothyroidism). Thyroid DVHs were converted to 2 Gy/fraction equivalent doses using the linear-quadratic formula with {alpha}/{beta} = 3 Gy. The evaluated models included the following: Lyman with the DVH reduced to the equivalent uniform dose (EUD), known as LEUD; Logit-EUD; mean dose; relative seriality; individual critical volume; and population critical volume models. The parameters of the models were obtained by fitting the patients' data using a maximum likelihood analysis method. The goodness of fit of the models was determined by the 2-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Ranking of the models was made according to Akaike's information criterion. Results: Twenty-nine patients (44.6%) experienced hypothyroidism. None of the models was rejected according to the evaluation of the goodness of fit. The mean dose model was ranked as the best model on the basis of its Akaike's information criterion value. The D{sub 50} estimated from the models was approximately 44 Gy. Conclusions: The implemented normal tissue complication probability models showed a parallel architecture for the thyroid. The mean dose model can be used as the best model to describe the dose-response relationship for hypothyroidism complication.