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Random Utility/Multinomial Logit Model Literature Amemiya, Takeshi. 1977. "On a Two-Step Estimation of a Multivariate Logit Model." Journal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Random Utility/Multinomial Logit Model Literature Amemiya, Takeshi. 1977. "On a Two-Step Estimation,-I.-E. "Random Utility Model for Sportfishing: Some Preliminary Results for Florida." Marine extensive use of the random utility (or discrete choice) model in recent years, but few applications appear


Orthodontics diagnostic based on multinomial logistic regression model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The main objective of this study is evaluate the influence of several covariates in the occurrence of two types of vertical jaw dysplasia (open bite and deepbite) in orthodontics field. The study of vertical jaw dysplasia is of great interest to the ... Keywords: deepbite, hyoid bone (HB), logit, multinomial logistic regression, open bite, stepwise

Ana Cristina Braga; Vanda Urzal; A. Pinhão Ferreira



Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Customers’ Choice Among Energy Supplier Simulation based oncustomers’ choice of energy supplier. Surveyed customerspreferences for energy suppliers, such that a mixed logit is

Train, Kenneth



The Continuous Cross-Nested Logit Model: Formulation and Application for Departure Time Choice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Continuous Cross-Nested Logit Model: Formulation and Application for Departure Time Choice modeling, departure time modeling, continuous logit, continuous cross- nested logit, Bayesian estimation usage). In this paper, the continuous cross-nested logit (CCNL) model is introduced. The CCNL model

Kockelman, Kara M.


The d-Level Nested Logit Model: Assortment and Price Optimization Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The d-Level Nested Logit Model: Assortment and Price Optimization Problems Guang Li Paat, 2013 @ 2:27pm Abstract We provide a new formulation of the d-level nested logit model using a tree the optimal assort- ment. For a d-level nested logit model with n products, the running time of the algorithm

Topaloglu, Huseyin


Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit: Households' Choice of Electricity Supplier  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

M a y 2000 Keywords: energy suppliers, mixed logit, tastecustomers' choice among energy suppliers in conjoint-typecustomers' choice o f energy supplier and estimate the value

Revelt, David; Train, Kenneth



Approximation Methods for Pricing Problems under the Nested Logit Model with Price Bounds  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Approximation Methods for Pricing Problems under the Nested Logit Model with Price Bounds W@orie.cornell.edu November 13, 2012 Abstract We consider two variants of a pricing problem under the nested logit model. In the first variant, the set of products offered to customers is fixed and we want to determine the prices

Topaloglu, Huseyin


Capacity Constraints Across Nests in Assortment Optimization Under the Nested Logit Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Capacity Constraints Across Nests in Assortment Optimization Under the Nested Logit Model Jacob B Abstract We consider assortment optimization problems when customers choose according to the nested logit in all nests. When each product consumes one unit of capacity, our capacity constraint limits

Topaloglu, Huseyin


Etude du choix d'acquisition d'automobiles : Application du modle probit multinomial baysien  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Etude du choix d'acquisition d'automobiles : Application du modèle probit multinomial bayésien à l comportementale du choix individuel des agents lors d'une nouvelle acquisition automobile. En croisant les trois, Motorisation, Automobile. Classification JEL : C11 ; C25 Correspondance à : Roger Collet, INRETS/DEST, 2

Paris-Sud XI, Université de


Multi-Attribute Choice Model: An Application of the Generalized Nested Logit Model at the Stock-Keeping Unit Level  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper proposes an application of the generalized nested logit (GNL) model which is used in transportation science for product choice problems at the stock-keeping unit level. I explain two alternative nestin...

Kei Takahashi



A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A new method for multinomial inference is proposed by representing the cell probabilities as unordered segments on the unit interval and following Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. The resulting DS posterior is then strengthened to improve symmetry and learning properties with the final posterior model being characterized by a Dirichlet distribution. In addition to computational simplicity, the new model has desirable invariance properties related to category permutations, refinements, and coarsenings. Furthemore, posterior inference on relative probabilities amongst certain cells depends only on data for the cells in question. Finally, the model is quite flexible with regard to parameterization and the range of testable assertions. Comparisons are made to existing methods and illustrated with two examples.

Lawrence, Earl Christopher [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Vander Wiel, Scott [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liu, Chuanhai [PURDUE UNIV; Zhang, Jianchun [PURDUE UNIV



Logit Models for Estimating Urban Area Through Travel  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of all trips at an external station that are through trips. The second model distributes those through trips at one external station to the other external stations. The models produce separate results for commercial and non- commercial vehicles...-side interview technique at locations (called external stations) where traffic enters and exits the study area. During the daylight hours of a certain day, survey personnel would direct all vehicles or a sample of vehicles leaving the urban area to stop...

Talbot, Eric



Characteristics of rural bank acquisitions: a logit analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study evaluates acquisitions of rural banks by multi-bank holding companies. Evaluation of pre-acquisition characteristics including profitability, size, market concentration, and agricultural lending volume are the basis of the analysis...

Applewhite, Jennifer Lynn



Essays in Development Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fixed effects logit estimator (CFE-logit) where migrate iv,terror term. Note that the CFE-logit estimator restrictsconditional fixed effects (CFE) logit estimator, when using

Bazzi, Samuel Ali


Simulating landscape change in the Olympic Peninsula using spatial ecological and socioeconomic data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ecological and socioeconomic data were integrated to study landscape change for the Dungeness River basin in the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. A multinomial logit procedure was used to evaluate twenty-two maps representing various data themes to derive transition probabilities of land cover change. Probabilities of forest disturbance were greater on private land than public. Between 1975 and 1988, forest cover increased, grassy/brushy covers decreased, and the number of forest patches increased about 30%. Simulations were run to estimate future land cover. These results were represented as frequency distributions for proportion cover and patch characteristics.

Flamm, R.O. (Florida Marine Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL (United States)); Gottfried, R. (Univ. of the South, Sewanee, TN (United States)); Lee, R.G.; Naiman, R.J. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)); Turner, M.G. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)); Wear, D. (USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States))



Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel vehicles. In:preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles David Brownstonespondents' preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles. The e€

Brownston, David; Bunch, David S.; Train, Kenneth



Estimating mixed logit with non-parametric random variables. Fabian Bastin*, Cinzia Cirillo** and Philippe L. Toint**  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on electric car, whose prototype has been realized and tested in a number of cities in Europe. The data set

Toint, Philippe


Co-relation of Variables Involved in the Occurrence of Crane Accidents in U.S. through Logit Modeling.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

were divided into categories with respect to accident types, construction operations, degree of accident, fault, contributing factors, crane types, victim’s occupation, organs affected and load. Descriptive analysis was performed to compliment...

Bains, Amrit Anoop Singh



Massachusetts Landowner Participation in Forest Management Programs for Carbon Sequestration: an Ordered Logit Analysis of Ratings Data.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The Family Forest Research Center recently conducted a mail survey of about 1,400 Massachusetts landowners. Respondents were given questions about themselves and their land and… (more)

Dickinson, Brenton J



A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Growing environmental concerns and oil price volatility have led to increasing interest in the potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles. Dedicated fuel vehicles such as EV and CNG vehicles use only the alte...

Stephane Hess; Mark Fowler; Thomas Adler; Aniss Bahreinian


Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "multinomial logit nmnl" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


Examining solid waste management issues in the City of Bryan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for Policy II with Mail-Unconsolidated Data ............. Logit Results for Policy II with Mail-Consolidated Data ............... Logit Results for Policy II with Pooled-Unconsolidated Data ........... Logit Results for Policy II with Pooled-Consolidated Data... for Policy III with Mail-Unconsolidated Data ............ Logit Results for Policy III with Mail-Consolidated Data ............. Logit Results for Policy III with Pooled-Unconsolidated Data .......... Logit Results for Policy III with Pooled...

Arekere, Dhananjaya Marigowda



The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 - Transportation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

transportation demand module (TRAN) forecasts the consumption of transportation sector fuels by transportation mode, including the use of renewables and alternative fuels, subject to delivered prices of energy fuels and macroeconomic variables, including disposable personal income, gross domestic product, level of imports and exports, industrial output, new car and light truck sales, and population. The structure of the module is shown in Figure 8. transportation demand module (TRAN) forecasts the consumption of transportation sector fuels by transportation mode, including the use of renewables and alternative fuels, subject to delivered prices of energy fuels and macroeconomic variables, including disposable personal income, gross domestic product, level of imports and exports, industrial output, new car and light truck sales, and population. The structure of the module is shown in Figure 8. Figure 8. Transportation Demand Module Structure NEMS projections of future fuel prices influence the fuel efficiency, vehicle-miles traveled, and alternative-fuel vehicle (AFV) market penetration for the current fleet of vehicles. Alternative-fuel shares are projected on the basis of a multinomial logit vehicle attribute model, subject to State and Federal government mandates.


The results of a world-wide study on yield improvement are presented. Die yields col-lected from 21 fabs are transformed via a logit formula and compared. The die yields and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-aided manufacturing practices and statistical process control practices in addition to commonly cited practices improvement rates of the fabs are compared, and manufacturing yield improve- ment practices are evaluated such as particle control and advanced manufacturing technology. #12;Introduction The results of a world-wide study

California at Berkeley, University of


Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

Greene, D.L.



Challenges in Merger Simulation Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we share our experience with merger simulations using a Random Coefficient Logit model on the demand side and assuming a static Bertrand game on the supply side. Drawing largely from our work in Knittel and ...

Knittel, Christopher Roland


Interpretation of the modality of touch on an artificial arm covered with an EIT-based sensitive skin  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

During social interaction humans extract important information from tactile stimuli that can improve their understanding of the interaction. The development of a similar capability in a robot will contribute to the future success of intuitive human-robot ... Keywords: LogitBoost, Physical human-robot interaction, artificial sensitive skin, electrical impedance tomography, force and tactile sensing, recognition, sensing and perception, supervised machine learning

David Silvera Tawil; David Rye; Mari Velonaki




E-Print Network [OSTI]

Jan 29, 2013 ... where f is a convex (hence, continuous) real-valued function, ... In this paper we revisit the classic idea of “polynomial exactness” in the theory of cubature ..... two compendiums of such formulas: Stroud's classic book [29], and the ...... We used random density functions from the multivariate logit-normal ...




ICPSR Summer Program Comparing groups in  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

year+ yearsq Pr tenure 1| select articles fema pre i e h l st year yearsq s female elect articles presthi E E E E E E E § · /¨ ¸ © ¹ x logit (N=2797): Factor Change in Odds Odds of: Tenure vs No

Indiana University


The Drivers of Mergers and Acquisitions in Pharmaceutical Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We examine the determinants and drivers of 112 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities exceed 50 million values in the pharmaceutical industry using COMPUSTAT, SDC and FDA data during the period 1980-2010 with random effect logit model. We find...

Ji, Fan



Journal of Transportation Engineering Modelling Automobile Driver's Toll-Lane Choice Behaviour at a Toll Plaza  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journal of Transportation Engineering Modelling Automobile Driver's Toll-Lane Choice Behaviour at a Toll Plaza --Manuscript Draft-- Manuscript Number: TEENG-1181R3 Full Title: Modelling Automobile Driver to develop a random utility based discrete multinomial choice model for the behaviour of automobile drivers

Kundu, Debasis


Machine Learning ! ! ! ! ! Srihari Parameter Estimation for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Bayesian Approach ­Thumbtack vs Coin Toss · Uniform Prior vs Beta Prior ­Multinomial · Dirichlet Prior 2 · Statistical estimation theory deals with Confidence Intervals ­E.g., in election polls 61 + 2 percent plan


The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................... 192 4.10 Per capita volume of non-alcoholic beverages consumed at home in the United States in 2003 by poverty status .................... 193 5.1 Calibration graph for probabilities: probit model within-sample for isotonics... ............................................................... 256 5.2 Calibration graph for probabilities: probit model out-of-sample for isotonics ................................................................ 256 5.3 Calibration graph for probabilities: logit model within-sample for isotonics...

Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath



The Effects of Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling on Canadian/U.S. Live Hog and Feeder Pig Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

consumers? willingness to pay for MCOOL covered U.S. beef products. The study conducted surveys and experimental auctions to elicit consumers? willingness-to-pay for origin information. The surveys and auctions were conducted in both Denver and Chicago... in several grocery stores in the Colorado cities of Boulder, Denver and Fort Collins. The authors used logit models centered on the survey data to determine consumer willingness to pay for MCOOL. The authors found that on average, households were willing...

Thevenaz, Shad Arthur Michel



Sporadic voters: how attitude change influences voter turnout  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

????????????????????......................... 126 VITA????????????????????????????? 131 x LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE Page 1.1 Presidentical Election Turnout 1960-2004?????????.. 10 2.1 General Election Turnout 1980-2004???????????.. 31 xi LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page... for All Respondents Casting a Ballot in 1976? 61 3.10 Logit Coefficients for All Respondents Casting a Ballot in 1992? 64 4.1 Mean Values on Independent Variables for Respondents in the 1972-1974 NES Panel????????????????? 74 4.2 Change in Values...

Owens, Christopher T.



The Determinants of Homeonwership in Presence of Shocks Experienced by Mexican Households  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that households? experience and government income support programs influence homeownership in Mexico. A secondary objective is to determine how socio-demographic variables influence homeownership in Mexico. Based on the Random Utility Model, logit models... of Direct Rural Support of Mexico (PROGRESA) and the Program of Direct Rural Support of Mexico (PROCAMPO), appear to be increasing iii homeownership. These social welfare programs provide cash transfers to households. For whatever reason, PROGRESA...

Lopez Cabrera, Jesus Antonio 1977-



Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions.

Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M



Cancer progression analysis based on ordinal relationship of cancer stages and co-expression network modularity  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A comprehensive understanding of cancer progression may shed light on genetic and molecular mechanisms of oncogenesis, and provide important information for effective diagnosis and prognosis. We propose a multicategory logit model to identify genes that show significant correlations across multiple cancer stages. We have applied the approach on a Prostate Cancer (PCA) progression data and obtained a set of genes that show consistent trends across multiple stages. Further analysis based on multiple evidences demonstrates that our candidate list includes not only some well-known prostate-cancer-related genes, but also novel genes that have been confirmed very recently.

Yoon Soo Pyon; Xin Li; Jing Li



DVD: Energy Foresight  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

WE RECOMMEND Energy Foresight Valuable and original GCSE curriculum support on DVD Developing Scientific Literacy: Using News Media in the Classroom This book helpfully evaluates science stories in today's media Radioactivity Explained and Electricity Explained Interactive software ideal for classroom use TEP Generator Wind-up generator specially designed for schools SEP Energymeter A joule meter with more uses than its appearance suggests Into the Cool: Energy Flow, Thermodynamics and Life This book explores the physics behind biology CmapTools Handy software for mapping knowledge and resources LogIT Black Box This hub contains multiple sensors for endless experimental fun WEB WATCH Water Web 2.0


Information programs for technology adoption: the case of energy-efficiency audits  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We analyze technology adoption decisions of manufacturing plants in response to government-sponsored energy audits. Overall, plants adopt about half of the recommended energy-efficiency projects. Using fixed effects logit estimation, we find that adoption rates are higher for projects with shorter paybacks, lower costs, greater annual savings, higher energy prices, and greater energy conservation. Plants are 40% more responsive to initial costs than annual savings, suggesting that subsidies may be more effective at promoting energy-efficient technologies than energy price increases. Adoption decisions imply hurdle rates of 50–100%, which is consistent with the investment criteria small and medium-size firms state they use.

Soren T Anderson; Richard G Newell



Inter-Island modal competition: the case of Gran Canaria-Tenerife  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper, we use discrete choice modelling to analyse inter-modal competition in the most important route within The Canary Islands (Spain). We estimate different Nested Logit (NL) models that allow us to know the main factors that determine modal choice among a set of three existing alternatives: plane and two fast ferries. We obtained passengers' Willingness To Pay (WTP) for improvements in the main level-of-service attributes. Direct demand elasticities for the different competing modes are also derived. The results of our analysis can be used as an interesting policy instrument for operators' managers and policy makers.

Concepcion Roman; Juan Carlos Martin; Raquel Espino


Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "multinomial logit nmnl" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


Finding a Minimally Informative Dirichlet Prior Distribution Using Least Squares  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In a Bayesian framework, the Dirichlet distribution is the conjugate distribution to the multinomial likelihood function, and so the analyst is required to develop a Dirichlet prior that incorporates available information. However, as it is a multiparameter distribution, choosing the Dirichlet parameters is less straight-forward than choosing a prior distribution for a single parameter, such as p in the binomial distribution. In particular, one may wish to incorporate limited information into the prior, resulting in a minimally informative prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data. In the case of binomial p or Poisson, the principle of maximum entropy can be employed to obtain a so-called constrained noninformative prior. However, even in the case of p, such a distribution cannot be written down in closed form, and so an approximate beta distribution is used in the case of p. In the case of the multinomial model with parametric constraints, the approach of maximum entropy does not appear tractable. This paper presents an alternative approach, based on constrained minimization of a least-squares objective function, which leads to a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution. The alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, which is widely used in the United States, is the motivation for this approach, and is used to illustrate the method. In this approach to modeling common-cause failure, the alpha-factors, which are the parameters in the underlying multinomial aleatory model for common-cause failure, must be estimated from data that is often quite sparse, because common-cause failures tend to be rare, especially failures of more than two or three components, and so a prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data is needed.

Dana Kelly; Corwin Atwood



Redes empresariales locales, investigación y desarrollo e innovación en la empresa. Cluster de herramientas de Caldas, Colombia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Resumen El ambiente económico actual le plantea a las empresas la necesidad de actuar en el contexto de redes empresariales, dada su influencia sobre la competitividad empresarial, particularmente en las pymes, y su contribución al desarrollo regional. Esto ha suscitado interés en los investigadores por estudiar estas redes y su influencia en el desempeño de las empresas. De acuerdo con lo anterior, el presente trabajo evalúa la incidencia que tienen las relaciones entre las empresas e instituciones sobre la innovación empresarial en el departamento de Caldas (Colombia). El trabajo es empírico y los datos son tratados con modelos econométricos (modelos logit). Los resultados indican que los vínculos entre empresas para ejecutar actividades de I&D y transferencia tecnológica y de conocimientos, en el contexto de redes empresariales, influyen positivamente sobre la I&D y la innovación en la empresa. Abstract The current economic environment has led to the need for companiesto act in the context of enterprise networks, given its influence on business competitiveness, particularly in SMEs, and their contribution to regional development. This has generated an interest among researchers to analyze these networks. This paper evaluates the impact of relationships between companies and institutions in business innovation in the department of Caldas (Colombia). The work is empirical and data is treated with econometric models (logit models). The results indicated that ties between firms to carry out R&D and technology transfer and knowledge have a positive influence on R&D and innovation within the company.

Fredy Becerra Rodríguez; Héctor Mauricio Serna Gómez; Julia Clemencia Naranjo Valencia




SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.

Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H.; McMahon, J. E.



Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Errata  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 as of 4/4/2000 1. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 4-Speed Automatic" should be .045 instead of .030. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 5-Speed Automatic" should be .065 instead of .045. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 2. Table 28 should be labeled: "Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Attribute Inputs for Compact Cars for Two Stage Logit Model". (Change made on 3/6/2000) 3. The capital costs in Table 29 should read 1998 dollars not 1988 dollars. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 4. Table 37 changed the label "Year Available" to "First Year Completed." Changed the second sentence of Footnote 1 to read "these estimates are costs of new projects


Substitution patterns across alternatives as a source of preference heterogeneity in recreation demand models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Recent stated choice studies have shown that, in a context of inter-alternative correlation, individuals can assess alternatives differently. This asymmetry in perception between alternatives with different levels of substitutability becomes one additional, but usually overlooked, source of observed preference heterogeneity. In the context of beach recreation in Mallorca, Spain, this paper extends the investigation on this source of heterogeneity to a revealed preference setting. While the substitution pattern existent across sites is accounted for by means of a nested logit model, nest-specific coefficients are estimated to evaluate the utilities associated with different groups of sites. The results provide empirical evidence to suggest that substitution patterns across alternatives are a statistically significant source of influence on preference heterogeneity leading to different marginal sensitivities for a number of site attributes.

Angel Bujosa Bestard




SciTech Connect (OSTI)

How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL



Truck driver environmental and energy attitudes – an exploratory analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In recent years, US federal and state regulators have developed policies and programs designed to encourage tractor–trailer drivers to reduce engine idling as a way to cut down on diesel emissions and fuel consumption. It has proven difficult, however, to target education and outreach to truck drivers, partially because little is known about them. Based on a nationwide interview survey of over 350 drivers, the link between drivers’ environmental and energy attitudes and their adoption of idle-reduction measures is examined. Cluster analysis shows that truckers with some college and with college completion consistently expressed agreement with pro-environmental statements. A logit model indicates that concerns over fuel consumption, resource depletion, and cost are associated with an interest in idle-reduction alternatives among owner-operators, but not with purchases. Costs of technology and fuel are the driving considerations affecting the adoption of idle-reduction strategies.

Lisa Schweitzer; Christie-Joy Brodrick; Sue E. Spivey



Convergence behavior of carbon dioxide emissions in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In view of global warming, the concept of a low carbon world economy has been brought to center stage. In this paper, a systematical empirical investigation of the convergence behavior of carbon dioxide emissions in China is conducted based on provincial data for the period of 1995–2011. Using the log t test developed by Phillips and Sul (2007), evident divergence at the country level and convergence to three steady state equilibriums at provincial level was identified. Furthermore, estimates from the ordered logit model uncover important determinants underlying the formation of clubs, including the per capita GDP, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, and initial levels of economic development. The results from this study contribute to a more in-depth understanding of the carbon dioxide emissions status quo in China and serves as reference when launching region-based emissions mitigation policies.

Yiming Wang; Pei Zhang; Dake Huang; Changda Cai



Crop acreage estimators based on satellite imagery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to acknowledge Dr. E. E. Gbur and Dr. L. F. Guseman, Jr. for their willingness to serve on my committee. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION. 2. NEED FOR A NEW DECISION PROCESS 2. 1 Description of the Multinomial Decision Process 2. 2 Maximum Likelihood... of S and K. That attempt requires that equations J z (x T(x /s)+x v(x /s) ij (Xl +X2) f ((X. +X. )/S) lj 2j lj 2j = X log(p ) + X log(P ) ? (X +X )log(P +P ), be solved for S and J Z ((T -X . ) V((T -X )/KS) ? T. 'P(T /Ks)+X III(X /Ks)) = X log...

Vidart, Stephane



Use renewables to be cleaner: Meta-analysis of the renewable energy consumption–economic growth nexus  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The renewable energy consumption–economic growth nexus is a growing area of research over the last few years, emanating to mixed results. The aim of the current study is to quantitatively synthesise the empirical literature on the subject using the meta-analysis approach. In particular, a meta-multinomial regression is employed to investigate the sources of variation in the direction of causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. This causal relationship takes the form of four hypotheses, namely the feedback, conservation, growth and neutrality hypotheses. To the best of author?s knowledge, this study constitutes the first meta-analysis undertaken on the renewable energy consumption–economic growth nexus. The empirical results reveal that the variation in the supported hypotheses is due to a number of characteristics including model specification, data characteristics, estimation techniques (cointegration methods and causality tests), and development level of the country on which a study was conducted.

Maamar Sebri



Individual characteristics and stated preferences for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles: A discrete choice analysis for Germany  

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With respect to the German goal of a transition to a lead market for electromobility within a short time period, this paper empirically examines the preferences for alternative energy sources or propulsion technologies in vehicles and particularly for electric vehicles. The data stem from a stated preference discrete choice experiment with 598 potential German car buyers. In order to simulate a realistic future purchase situation, seven vehicle types were incorporated in each of the six choice sets, i.e. hybrid, gas, biofuel, hydrogen, and electric vehicles besides common gasoline and diesel vehicles. The econometric analysis with flexible multinomial probit models reveals that potential car buyers in Germany currently have a low stated preference for electric, hydrogen, and hybrid vehicles. While our paper also discusses the impact of common vehicle attributes such as purchase price or service station availability, it particularly considers the effect of socio-demographic and environmental awareness variables. The estimation results reveal that younger potential car buyers have a higher stated preference for hydrogen and electric vehicles, males have a higher stated choice of hydrogen vehicles, and environmentally aware potential car buyers have a higher stated preference for hydrogen and electric vehicles. These results suggest that common policy instruments such as the promotion of research and development, taxation, or subsidization in the field of electromobility could be supplemented by strategies to increase the social acceptance of alternative vehicle types that are directly oriented to these population groups. Methodologically, our study highlights the importance of the inclusion of taste persistence across the choice sets and a high number of random draws in the Geweke–Hajivassiliou–Keane simulator in the simulated maximum likelihood estimation of the multinomial probit models.

Andreas Ziegler



Medida de la eficiencia en entidades no lucrativas: un estudio empírico para fundaciones asistenciales  

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Resumen La medida del rendimiento de cualquier unidad de decisión es un objetivo ciertamente deseable para conocer si la aplicación de sus recursos económicos (inputs) es adecuada en cada momento para conseguir su objetivo productivo. En este sentido, las entidades sin fines lucrativos no son ajenas a esta necesidad de gestión, presentando dificultades añadidas la medida de su desempeño, dado que por su carácter de «no lucrativas» su objetivo último no es la maximización de beneficio, sino la consecución de fines de carácter social, en ocasiones difícilmente cuantificables. En el contexto descrito, el presente trabajo evalúa, dentro del sector de las entidades sin fines lucrativos, el rendimiento de las fundaciones estatales de tipo asistencial radicadas en España, mediante la aplicación de la técnica no paramétrica del análisis envolvente de datos (DEA), capaz de determinar la frontera de «buenas prácticas» de las unidades evaluadas a partir de un modelo de optimización matemática, al tiempo que permite estudiar las variaciones del cambio productivo a través del cálculo del índice de productividad total de los factores de Malmquist basado en la metodología DEA mencionada. El estudio se complementa con un análisis DEA en 2 etapas aplicando un modelo de regresión logit para evaluar la posible asociación de covariables de relevancia en el sector de las fundaciones, tales como su tamaño, liquidez, endeudamiento y antigüedad, con el rendimiento de dichas organizaciones previamente calculado. Abstract Measuring the performance of any unit decision is certainly desirable in order to discover whether the application of economic resources (inputs) is appropriate at all times to achieve its central objective. In this sense, non-profit organizations are not immune to this need for management, having additional difficulties in their performance, since because of their «non-profit» character their ultimate goal is not to maximize profit, but the achievement of social aims, sometimes difficult to quantify. In this context, this paper evaluates, within the sector of non-profit organizations, the performance of care foundations in Spain by applying the non-parametric technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA), which is able to determine the border of «best practices» of the evaluated units from a mathematical optimization model, while allow us to study the productivity change by means to calculate the total factor productivity Malmquist index based on the DEA methodology. The study is complemented by a 2-stage DEA analysis using a logit regression model to evaluate the possible association of relevant covariates in the foundations sector, such as the size, liquidity, debt and antiquity, with the previously calculated performance of these organizations.

Carmen M. Martínez Franco; Isidoro Guzmán Raja



Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics, from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistic physics. Recent extensions in term of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it would not cover the dynamical field of agent based models (AB...

Sornette, D



Estimating the benefits of recreation-oriented management in state-owned commercial forests in Finland: A choice experiment  

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Abstract As forestlands provide a variety of environmental services, the management of forest resources is a matter of public concern. In the present case of state-owned commercial forests in Finland, legislation requires specific management practices to enhance recreational benefits free of charge to the public. This choice experiment considers Finnish people's valuation of the recreation-oriented management of state-owned commercial forests to evaluate whether the recreational benefits produced justify the related loss of profits from timber sales. We focus on three management attributes: scenic buffer zones along lakes and rivers, habitats for game birds, and the quality of scenery as reflected by the frequency of clear-cut areas along hiking trails. Marginal willingness-to-pay (WTP) effects for the attributes are estimated with random parameters logit models specified in the WTP space, while preference-space models are used to estimate in physical terms the attribute levels that maximize the benefits to the public. Despite regional differences in preferences, people in all parts of Finland valued the current recreation-oriented management of state-owned commercial forests considerably. Nationwide, the aggregate benefits of recreation-enhancing management clearly exceeded the estimated opportunity costs. The most preferred levels of management attributes were slightly above the current levels, suggesting an increase in the provision of recreational services when not considering the associated costs.

Artti Juutinen; Anna-Kaisa Kosenius; Ville Ovaskainen



Free-riding on tax credits for home insulation in France: An econometric assessment using panel data  

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Abstract This econometric study assesses the efficiency of the income tax credit system introduced in France in 2005 on investment decisions for household retrofits, focusing on insulation measures. A logit model with random individual effects is estimated using an unbalanced panel of 23,879 households surveyed over the period 2002–2011. An estimation in difference is performed to identify the impact of the policy. The tax credit is found to have had no significant effect during the first two years, suggesting a latency period related to inertia in households' investment decisions, possibly due to the complexity of the tax credit scheme. The tax credit had an increasing, significant positive effect from 2007 to 2010, before slightly decreasing in 2011. This is in line with changes in the tax credit rates, suggesting a correlation with the level of subsidy. Defined as the situation in which the subsidized household would have invested even in the absence of the subsidy, free-ridership progressively decreased over the period, was lower for insulation of opaque surfaces (roofs, walls, etc.) than for insulation of windows and depended on individual characteristics. The estimated average proportion of free-riders varies between 40% and 85% after 2006. In addition, we assess the potential bias caused by time-varying unobservable variables and conclude that our estimates of the impacts of the policy are conservative.

Marie-Laure Nauleau



Environmental policy implications of working from home: Modelling the impacts of land-use, infrastructure and socio-demographics  

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Working from home is generally perceived as an effective means of reducing energy use and associated pollution from commuter transport. In order to consider the merits of mechanisms and policies to support a change in behaviour that results in greater take-up of home working, this paper applies energy consumption per commute calculations and a logit model using a case study of Ireland. In marked contrast with larger countries, the energy consumption per commute is relatively low in Ireland. Nonetheless, the analysis indicates that, on average, at least an average net saving of 9.33 kW h per day can be achieved where an individual converts to working from home, after deducting the home energy consumption associated with home working. We find that land use patterns, public transport networks, internet infrastructure, commute distances and socio-demographic characteristics can serve to influence rates of home working. Encouraging the higher and lower professional categories and those in the service sectors to work from home should be the highest priority in terms of energy and emissions reductions. Increased coverage of internet services and railway coverage will support higher rates of home working. Increased dispersion of residential, commercial and industrial areas serves to encourage greater home working.

Miao Fu; J. Andrew Kelly; J. Peter Clinch; Fearghal King



Targeted chlorination for biofouling control in steam electric power plant condenser tubes  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this study was to develop an understanding of the relationships between biofouling, heat transfer, and to assess the technical feasibility of the targeted chlorination (TC) concept as an alternative to conventional chlorination in once-through seawater cooling systems. A shell and tube type heat exchanger was designed and constructed. The test facility monitored biofouling growth by measuring heat transfer resistance (thermal performance), pressure drop (hydraulic performance), and biomass deposit. Biocide effectiveness was determined by triplicates average residual biomass. Tests were run to evaluate 18 treatment scenarios. Preliminary tests were done to determine variabilities between shells and among tubes, effect of heating, very high dose chlorine burn out and regrowth behavior. LOGIT, a software package by the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) for sigmoidal fit, was used for the preliminary test data. The other three tests studied effect of chlorine dosage (low, high), contact time, and frequency. To minimize variability in results, triplicates for each chlorination scheme were used. The total amount of chlorine applied (flow rate Q x C x T x F) ranged from about 400 to 4,000 pounds per million gallons per day (an equivalent to a CTF range of 6 to 60 ppm.min/day). With respect to efficiency of biofouling control, it was found by regression analysis that among four variables C, T, (CT) and F, F was most significant and C, T, and (CT) were relatively equal in ranking.

Tewari, R.N.



Assessment Of Carbon Leakage In Multiple Carbon-Sink Projects: ACase Study In Jambi Province, Indonesia  

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Rehabilitation of degraded forest land throughimplementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbonstock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which iscommonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestrationbenefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects thatcould potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of elevensub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra,Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/coverbeing converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. Thepredictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area,distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agriculturalland, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, populationdensity and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and withoutcarbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated asbeing significant in their contribution to land use cover change. Theresults of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be largeenough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefitsduring the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitiveto changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. Byreducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10 percent for thebaseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collectionand refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study hasdemonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assessleakage.

Boer, Rizaldi; Wasrin, Upik R.; Hendri, Perdinan; Dasanto,Bambang D.; Makundi, Willy; Hero, Julius; Ridwan, M.; Masripatin, Nur



Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices  

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Abstract Differentiated vehicle taxes are considered by many a useful tool for promoting environmentally friendly vehicles. Various structures have been implemented in several countries, e.g. Ireland, France, The Czech Republic, and Denmark. In many countries the tax reforms have been followed by a steep change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains a small part of the shift in fuel efficiency that occurred and that the main driver was the technological development.

Stefan L. Mabit



Household demand and willingness to pay for hybrid vehicles  

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Abstract This paper quantitatively evaluates consumers' willingness to pay for hybrid vehicles by estimating the demand of hybrid vehicles in the U.S. market. Using micro-level data on consumer purchases of hybrid and non-hybrid vehicles from National Household Travel Survey 2009, this paper formulates a mixed logit model of consumers' vehicle choices. Parameter estimates are then used to evaluate consumers' willingness to pay for hybrids. Results suggest that households' willingness to pay for hybrids ranges from $963 to $1718 for different income groups, which is significantly lower than the average price premium (over $5000) of hybrid vehicles, even when taking the fuel costs savings of hybrid vehicles into consideration. The differences reveal that although the market has shown increasing interest in hybrid vehicles, consumers' valuation of the hybrid feature is still not high enough to compensate for the price premium when they make new purchases. Policy simulations are conducted to examine the effects of raising federal tax incentives on the purchase of hybrid vehicles.

Yizao Liu


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Willingness to pay function for two fuel treatments to reduce wildfire acreage burned: A scope test and comparison of White and Hispanic households  

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This research uses the Contingent Valuation Method to test whether willingness to pay increases for larger reductions in acres of forests burned by wildfires across the states of California, Florida and Montana. This is known as a test of scope, a measure of internal validity of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The scope test is conducted separately for White households and Hispanic households to determine if cultural differences influences whether the scope test is passed. The public program to reduce acres burned involved prescribed burning and a mechanical fuel reduction program. The results of CVM logit regressions show that the acreage reduction variable is statistically significant at the 1% level for the two proposed fuel reduction programs, and the two types of households. The positive sign of this variable means that the more acreage reduction proposed in the survey the more likely people would pay for the fuel reduction program. Because of the significance of the acreage reduction variable in the willingness to pay function, this function can be used to evaluate the incremental benefits of different forest fire management plans that reduce acres burned by wildfires. These benefits would be part of the justification for prescribed burning and mechanical fire fuel reduction programs to protect forests from wildfires.

John B. Loomis; Le Trong Hung; Armando González-Cabán



Demand for hybrid car in Indian metro cities  

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The depleting stock of fossil fuels, environmental problems, and global warming are today's major concerns. Existing studies identify that transport sector is one of the major contributors towards these problems. Constant efforts in search of alternative, less polluting fuel are being made. Hybrid car technology uses the gasoline and electric technology to reduce air pollution, and save oil. From the field study it is observed that the people with conventional thinking, constituting about one-third of respondents, show more concern for environment. The variables leading to demand for hybrid cars could be energy efficiency, concern for environment, etc. Despite being price sensitive, Indian consumers are willing to pay a decent premium for acquiring this environment friendly car. This study is undertaken with the objective of analysing the scenario of hybrid car in India, and its market potential. The study conducts a questionnaire-based consumer survey based on demographic, economic, and desirable features in a hybrid car; using logit model and factor analysis for identifying variables useful for the study.

Debabrata Das; R. Srinivasan; Raj S. Dhankar



Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.

Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J.; Anderson, J.L.



Exploring motorcycle red-light violation in response to pedestrian green signal countdown device  

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Abstract Literature has suggested that angle/rear-end collisions would arise from the reality that motorists and motorcyclists tended to accelerate aggressively in response to the remaining seconds of green signal countdown device (GSCD). One safety concern, while GSCD has gradually been removed for safety in Taiwan, is pedestrian green signal countdown device (PGSCD) that is used by approaching motorists and motorcyclists that may adopt the information to travel aggressively – an unintended consequence that is detrimental to safety. Research has reported that there appeared no negative effect of PGSCD on motorist behaviours but the effect on motorcyclists’ behaviours has been rarely investigated. Using video/speed cameras, the current research investigates motorcyclists’ RLV (red-light violation) behaviours. The descriptive analyses indicate that the percentage of RLV at PGSCD intersection is higher than that at typical intersection, and the violating motorcycles appear to have higher travelling speeds at PGSCD intersection. Several interaction terms were examined with the binary logit framework, and the results reveal that several factors are associated with RLV, notably male/young riders, moped/large motorcycle users, higher approaching speeds of motorcycles, those with tropical helmets, and lower traffic volume. Similar determinants of early-start behaviours (for those waiting at reds and could view the \\{PGSCDs\\} for the crossing pedestrians at the same time) were identified. Implications of the research findings, the concluding remarks, and recommendations for future research are finally provided.

Ping-Ling Chen; Chih-Wei Pai; Rong-Chang Jou; Wafaa Saleh; Ming-Shin Kuo



Explicit energy expansion for general odd degree polynomial potentials  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper we derive an almost explicit analytic formula for asymptotic eigenenergy expansion of arbitrary odd degree polynomial potentials of the form $V(x)=(ix)^{2N+1}+\\beta _{1}x^{2N}+\\beta _{2}x^{2N-1}+\\cdot \\cdot \\cdot \\cdot \\cdot +\\beta _{2N}x$ where $\\beta _{k}^{\\prime }$s are real or complex for $1\\leq k\\leq 2N$. The formula can be used to find semiclassical analytic expressions for eigenenergies up to any order very efficiently. Each term of the expansion is given explicitly as a multinomial of the parameters $\\beta _{1},\\beta _{2}....$ and $\\beta _{2N}$ of the potential. Unlike in the even degree polynomial case, the highest order term in the potential is pure imaginary and hence the system is non-Hermitian. Therefore all the integrations have been carried out along a contour enclosing two complex turning points which lies within a wedge in the complex plane. With the help of some examples we demonstrate the accuracy of the method for both real and complex eigenspectra.

Asiri Nanayakkara; Thilagarajah Mathanaranjan



Knowledge of UK physical activity guidelines: Implications for better targeted health promotion  

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AbstractObjective The aim of this study is to investigate the correlates of knowledge of the UK physical activity (PA) guidelines. Method A Northern Ireland-wide population survey (2010/2011) of 4653 adults provided cross-sectional data on PA, knowledge of guidelines and socio-demographic characteristics. Multinomial logistic regression was used to investigate the associations between knowledge and socio-demographic characteristics (Model 1); and modifiable health behaviours (Model 2). Results Results showed that 47% of respondents were unaware of PA guidelines. Males who had a lower level of education (OR 5.91; 95% CI 1.67, 20.94), lived in more deprived areas (OR 4.80; 95% CI 1.87, 12.30), low income (OR 2.36; 95% CI 1.63, 3.41) and did no PA (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.31, 5.76) were more likely to be unaware of the guidelines. Females who were younger (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.02, 1.05) and reported poor health (OR 2.71; 95% CI 1.61, 4.58) were more likely to be unaware of the guidelines. Conclusion There is a lack of awareness about the levels of PA needed to promote health. An understanding of the characteristics of those who are unaware of the guidelines has important implications for the design of targeted, effective health promotion.

Ruth F. Hunter; Mark A. Tully; Paul Donnelly; Michael Stevenson; Frank Kee



Large scale multi-class classification with truncated nuclear norm regularization  

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Abstract In this paper, we consider the problem of multi-class image classification when the classes behaviour has a low rank structure. That is, classes can be embedded into a low dimensional space. Traditional multi-class classification algorithms usually use nuclear norm to approximate the rank of the weight matrix. Considering the limited ability of the nuclear norm for the accurate approximation, we propose a new scalable large scale multi-class classification algorithm by using the recently proposed truncated nuclear norm as a better surrogate of the rank operator of matrices along with multinomial logisitic loss. To solve the non-convex and non-smooth optimization problem, we further develop an efficient iterative procedure. In each iteration, by lifting the non-smooth convex subproblem into an infinite dimensional ?1 norm regularized problem, a simple and efficient accelerated coordinate descent algorithm is applied to find the optimal solution. We conduct a series of evaluations on several public large scale image datasets, where the experimental results show the encouraging improvement of classification accuracy of the proposed algorithm in comparison with the state-of-the-art multi-class classification algorithms.

Yao Hu; Zhongming Jin; Yi Shi; Debing Zhang; Deng Cai; Xiaofei He



Bayesian method for global optimization  

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We introduce a Bayesian approach for obtaining the global optimum of multimodal functions. The set of observed minima of a multimodal function is viewed as a sample from a multinomial distribution, whose cells correspond to the basins of attraction of the local optima. We then derive the posterior distribution of the number of local optima. This posterior information is obtained from a Bayesian analysis and is used to construct a stopping criterion for a sequential random search method which finds the optimal tradeoff between reliability and computational effort. The computational complexity of this global optimization method is a strong function of the total number of local optima and a weak function of the dimensions of the configuration space. Application to four classical problems from the global optimization literature, a bifunctional catalytic reactor problem, and the conformation problem of Lennard-Jones microclusters is demonstrated. Comparisons with the Bayesian method of Boender and Rinooy Kan [Math. Program. 37, 59 (1987)] and the simulated annealing method of Dekkers and Aarts [Math. Program. 50, 367 (1991)] are provided and, in each case, the computational complexity of our method is shown to be smaller than that of these methods.

Prasana K. Venkatesh; Morrel H. Cohen; Robert W. Carr; Anthony M. Dean



Visual impact assessment of offshore wind farms and prior experience  

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Energy planners have shifted their attention towards offshore wind power generation and the decision is supported by the public in general, which in the literature has a positive attitude towards offshore wind generation. However, globally only a few offshore wind farms are operating. As more wind farms start operating and more people become experienced with especially the visual impacts from offshore wind farms, the public positive attitude could change if the experienced impacts are different from the initially perceived visual interference. Using a binary logit model, the present paper investigates the relation between different levels of prior experience with visual disamenities from offshore wind farms and perception of visual impacts from offshore wind farms. The differences in prior experience are systematically controlled for sampling respondents living in the areas close to the large scale offshore wind farms Nysted and Horns Rev and by sampling the a group of respondents representing the Danish population, which has little experience with offshore wind farms. Compared to previous results in the literature, the present paper finds that perception of wind power generation is influenced by prior experience. More specifically, the results show that people with experience from offshore wind farms located far from the coast have a significant more positive perception of the visual impacts from offshore wind farms than people with experience from wind farms located closer to the coast. These results are noteworthy on two levels. First of all, the results show that perceptions of offshore wind generation are systematically significantly influenced by prior experience with offshore wind farms. Secondly, and in a policy context, the results indicate that the future acceptance of future offshore wind farms is not independent of the location of existing and new offshore wind farms. This poses for caution in relation to locating offshore wind farms too close to the coast.

Jacob Ladenburg



A structural analysis of vehicle design responses to Corporate Average Fuel Economy policy  

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The US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations are intended to influence automaker vehicle design and pricing choices. CAFE policy has been in effect for the past three decades, and new legislation has raised standards significantly. We present a structural analysis of automaker responses to generic CAFE policies. We depart from prior CAFE analyses by focusing on vehicle design responses in long-run oligopolistic equilibrium, and we view vehicles as differentiated products, taking demand as a general function of price and product attributes. We find that under general cost, demand, and performance functions, single-product profit maximizing firm responses to CAFE standards follow a distinct pattern: firms ignore CAFE when the standard is low, treat CAFE as a vehicle design constraint for moderate standards, and violate CAFE when the standard is high. Further, the point and extent of first violation depends upon the penalty for violation, and the corresponding vehicle design is independent of further standard increases. Thus, increasing CAFE standards will eventually have no further impact on vehicle design if the penalty for violation is also not increased. We implement a case study by incorporating vehicle physics simulation, vehicle manufacturing and technology cost models, and a mixed logit demand model to examine equilibrium powertrain design and price decisions for a fixed vehicle body. Results indicate that equilibrium vehicle design is not bound by current CAFE standards, and vehicle design decisions are directly determined by market competition and consumer preferences. We find that with increased fuel economy standards, a higher violation penalty than the current stagnant penalty is needed to cause firms to increase their design fuel economy at equilibrium. However, the maximum attainable improvement can be modest even if the penalty is doubled. We also find that firms’ design responses are more sensitive to variation in fuel prices than to CAFE standards, within the examined ranges.

Ching-Shin Norman Shiau; Jeremy J. Michalek; Chris T. Hendrickson



El lugar de la muerte en Andalucía: influencia de la edad, sexo y causa de defunción  

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ResumenObjetivo Conocer el lugar de la muerte y su relación con la edad, sexo y causas de defunción. Material y método Estudio transversal de base poblacional a partir de 31.463 defunciones procedentes de las estadísticas oficiales de mortalidad de Andalucía en el año 2009. Las variables estudiadas han sido: lugar donde ocurrió la muerte (hospital, domicilio o residencia socio-sanitaria), edad, sexo y causa de mortalidad. Se han calculado las odds ratio ajustadas por edad, sexo y causa de defunción mediante un modelo de regresión logística multinomial. Como variable dependiente se ha usado el lugar de fallecimiento y como independiente la edad, sexo y causa. Resultados El lugar de fallecimiento fue: hospital (61%), domicilio (31%) y residencia socio-sanitaria (8%). A mayor edad aumenta el porcentaje de fallecidos en el domicilio y especialmente en las residencias respecto al hospital. Las muertes en residencia se asocian con la edad (OR: 1,054; intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95%, 1,049-1,059) y las enfermedades del sistema nervioso central (OR: 2,221; IC del 95%, 1,826-2,701) y endocrinas (OR: 1,391; IC del 95%, 1,141-1,697). Hay una menor probabilidad de morir en domicilio por las enfermedades digestivas (OR: 0,272; IC del 95%, 0,23-0,32), genitourinarias(OR: 0,54; IC del 95%, 0,44-0,65) y respiratorias (OR: 0,73; IC del 95%, 0,64-0,82). Conclusiones La mayoría de los andaluces mueren en el hospital y a medida que aumenta la edad se incrementa la posibilidad de morir fuera del mismo. Hay diferencias significativas en la causa de defunción según el lugar de fallecimiento. Aim To know the place of death and its relationship to age, gender and causes of death. Material and methods A cross-sectional analysis of national population data using 31,463 deaths derived from Official Statistics on Mortality in Andalusia for the year 2009 was carried out. The variables studied were place of death (hospital, home or care home), age, gender and cause of mortality. Odds ratio adjusted by gender, age and cause of mortality using a multinomial logistic regression model. Place of death was chosen as dependent variable and age, gender and cause of death as independent ones. Results The place of death was hospital (61%), home (31%) and care home (8%). The higher the age, the higher the percentage of deaths at home and especially in care homes. Deaths in care homes are related to age (OR: 1,054; 95%CI: 1,049-1,059) and central nervous system (OR: 2,221; 95%CI: 1,826-2,071) and endocrine diseases (OR: 1,391; 95%CI: 1,141-1,697). There is a lower likelihood of dying at home due to digestive diseases (OR: 0,272; 95%CI: 0.23-0.32), genitourinary diseases (OR: 0.54; 95%CI: 0.44-0.65) and respiratory diseases (OR: 0.73; 95%CI: 0.64-0.82). Conclusions Most Andalusians die in the hospital and increasing age has been found to be associated with higher probability of dying at home or in care homes. There are differences between death causes regarding place of death.

M. Ruiz-Ramos; F. Javier García-León; C. Méndez-Martínez



Next generation sequencing improves detection of drug resistance mutations in infants after PMTCT failure  

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AbstractBackground Next generation sequencing (NGS) allows the detection of minor variant HIV drug resistance mutations (DRMs). However data from new NGS platforms after Prevention-of-Mother-to-Child-Transmission (PMTCT) regimen failure are limited. Objective To compare major and minor variant HIV \\{DRMs\\} with Illumina MiSeq and Life Technologies Ion Personal Genome Machine (PGM) in infants infected despite a PMTCT regimen. Study design We conducted a cross-sectional study of NGS for detecting \\{DRMs\\} in infants infected despite a zidovudine (AZT) and Nevirapine (NVP) regimen, before initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. Sequencing was performed on PCR products from plasma samples on PGM and MiSeq platforms. Bioinformatic analyses were undertaken using a codon-aware version of the Smith–Waterman mapping algorithm and a mixture multinomial error filtering statistical model. Results Of 15 infants, tested at a median age of 3.4 months after birth, 2 (13%) had non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) \\{DRMs\\} (K103N and Y181C) by bulk sequencing, whereas PGM detected 4 (26%) and MiSeq 5 (30%). NGS enabled the detection of additional minor variant \\{DRMs\\} in the infant with K103N. Coverage and instrument quality scores were higher with MiSeq, increasing the confidence of minor variant calls. Conclusions NGS followed by bioinformatic analyses detected multiple minor variant \\{DRMs\\} in HIV-1 RT among infants where PMTCT failed. The high coverage of MiSeq and high read quality improved the confidence of identified \\{DRMs\\} and may make this platform ideal for minor variant detection.

Randall G. Fisher; Davey M. Smith; Ben Murrell; Ruhan Slabbert; Bronwyn M. Kirby; Clair Edson; Mark F. Cotton; Richard H. Haubrich; Sergei L. Kosakovsky Pond; Gert U. Van Zyl



NTCP Modeling of Subacute/Late Laryngeal Edema Scored by Fiberoptic Examination  

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Purpose: Finding best-fit parameters of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for laryngeal edema after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer. Methods and Materials: Forty-eight patients were considered for this study who met the following criteria: (1) grossly uninvolved larynx, (2) no prior major surgery except for neck dissection and tonsillectomy, (3) at least one fiberoptic examination of the larynx within 2 years from radiotherapy, (4) minimum follow-up of 15 months. Larynx dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were corrected into a linear quadratic equivalent one at 2 Gy/fr with alpha/beta = 3 Gy. Subacute/late edema was prospectively scored at each follow-up examination according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scale. G2-G3 edema within 15 months from RT was considered as our endpoint. Two NTCP models were considered: (1) the Lyman model with DVH reduced to the equivalent uniform dose (EUD; LEUD) and (2) the Logit model with DVH reduced to the EUD (LOGEUD). The parameters for the models were fit to patient data using a maximum likelihood analysis. Results: All patients had a minimum of 15 months follow-up (only 8/48 received concurrent chemotherapy): 25/48 (52.1%) experienced G2-G3 edema. Both NTCP models fit well the clinical data: with LOGEUD the relationship between EUD and NTCP can be described with TD50 = 46.7 +- 2.1 Gy, n = 1.41 +- 0.8 and a steepness parameter k = 7.2 +- 2.5 Gy. Best fit parameters for LEUD are n = 1.17 +- 0.6, m = 0.23 +- 0.07 and TD50 = 47.3 +- 2.1 Gy. Conclusions: A clear volume effect was found for edema, consistent with a parallel architecture of the larynx for this endpoint. On the basis of our findings, an EUD <30-35 Gy should drastically reduce the risk of G2-G3 edema.

Rancati, Tiziana [Prostate Program, Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milano (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio, E-mail: fiorino.claudio@hsr.i [Medical Physics, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milano (Italy); Sanguineti, Giuseppe [Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX (United States)



Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling of Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism After Head-and-Neck Radiation Therapy  

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Purpose: To determine the dose-response relationship of the thyroid for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head-and-neck radiation therapy, according to 6 normal tissue complication probability models, and to find the best-fit parameters of the models. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five patients treated with primary or postoperative radiation therapy for various cancers in the head-and-neck region were prospectively evaluated. Patient serum samples (tri-iodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], free tri-iodothyronine, and free thyroxine) were measured before and at regular time intervals until 1 year after the completion of radiation therapy. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of the patients' thyroid gland were derived from their computed tomography (CT)-based treatment planning data. Hypothyroidism was defined as increased TSH (subclinical hypothyroidism) or increased TSH in combination with decreased free thyroxine and thyroxine (clinical hypothyroidism). Thyroid DVHs were converted to 2 Gy/fraction equivalent doses using the linear-quadratic formula with {alpha}/{beta} = 3 Gy. The evaluated models included the following: Lyman with the DVH reduced to the equivalent uniform dose (EUD), known as LEUD; Logit-EUD; mean dose; relative seriality; individual critical volume; and population critical volume models. The parameters of the models were obtained by fitting the patients' data using a maximum likelihood analysis method. The goodness of fit of the models was determined by the 2-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Ranking of the models was made according to Akaike's information criterion. Results: Twenty-nine patients (44.6%) experienced hypothyroidism. None of the models was rejected according to the evaluation of the goodness of fit. The mean dose model was ranked as the best model on the basis of its Akaike's information criterion value. The D{sub 50} estimated from the models was approximately 44 Gy. Conclusions: The implemented normal tissue complication probability models showed a parallel architecture for the thyroid. The mean dose model can be used as the best model to describe the dose-response relationship for hypothyroidism complication.

Bakhshandeh, Mohsen [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hashemi, Bijan, E-mail: bhashemi@modares.ac.ir [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mahdavi, Seied Rabi Mehdi [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nikoofar, Alireza; Vasheghani, Maryam [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hafte-Tir Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hafte-Tir Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan [Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)



WAPDEG Analysis of Waste Package and Drip shield Degradation  

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As directed by ''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Modeling and Analysis of the Waste Form and Waste Package'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171583]), an analysis of the degradation of the engineered barrier system (EBS) drip shields and waste packages at the Yucca Mountain repository is developed. The purpose of this activity is to provide the TSPA with inputs and methodologies used to evaluate waste package and drip shield degradation as a function of exposure time under exposure conditions anticipated in the repository. This analysis provides information useful to satisfy ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]) requirements. Several features, events, and processes (FEPs) are also discussed (Section 6.2, Table 15). The previous revision of this report was prepared as a model report in accordance with AP-SIII.10Q, Models. Due to changes in the role of this report since the site recommendation, it no longer contains model development. This revision is prepared as a scientific analysis in accordance with AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses'' and uses models previously validated in (1) ''Stress Corrosion Cracking of the Drip Shield, the Waste Package Outer Barrier, and the Stainless Steel Structural Material'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169985]); (2) ''General Corrosion and Localized Corrosion of Waste Package Outer Barrier'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169984]); and (3) ''General Corrosion and Localized Corrosion of Drip Shield'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169845]). The integrated waste package degradation (IWPD) analysis presented in this report treats several implementation-related issues, such as defining the number and size of patches per waste package that undergo stress corrosion cracking; recasting the weld flaw analysis in a form as implemented in the Closure Weld Defects (CWD) software; and, general corrosion rate manipulations (e.g., change of scale in Section 6.3.4). The weld flaw portion of this report takes input from an engineering calculation (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170024]) and uses standard mathematical methods to enable easier implementation. The IWPD analysis also provides guidance on implementation of early failures (importance sampling and multinomial distribution usage). These manipulations are evident from standard scientific practices, approaches, or methods and do not require changes to the previously validated models. The IWPD analysis itself (Section 6.4), not the resultant curves from executing the IWPD analysis presented in Section 6.5 (which are for illustrative purposes), is used directly in total system performance assessment (TSPA). The IWPD analysis simulates general corrosion and stress corrosion cracking of the waste package outer barrier and general corrosion of the drip shield. The effects of igneous and seismic events and localized corrosion on drip shield and waste package performance are not evaluated in this report. The outputs of this report are inputs and methodologies used by TSPA to evaluate waste package and drip shield degradation as a function of exposure time under exposure conditions anticipated in the repository. The analyses presented in this report are for the current repository design (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168489]).

K. Mon