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1

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Study of Housing Built Near Rail Transit Stations: NorthernLogit Model Results for Upper Nest (Rail Location Choice)and Lower Nest (Rail Commute Choice). Note: Revised from

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Study of Housing Built Near Rail Transit Stations: NorthernLogit Model Results for Upper Nest (Rail Location Choice)and Lower Nest (Rail Commute Choice). Note: Revised from

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

The exact distribution of the maximum, minimum and the range of Multinomial/Dirichlet and Multivariate Hypergeometric frequencies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The exact distribution of the maximum and minimum frequencies of Multinomial/Dirichlet and Multivariate Hypergeometric distributions of n balls in m urns is compactly represented as a product of stochastic matrices. This representation ... Keywords: Dirichlet multinomial, Multinomial maximum, minimum, range, Multinomial outliers, inliers, Multivariate hypergeometric, Stochastic matrix

Charles J. Corrado

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

A Finite Mixture Logit Model to Segment and Predict Electronic Payments System Adoption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite much hype about electronic payments systems (EPSs), a 2004 survey establishes that close to 80% of between-business payments are still made using paper-based formats. We present a finite mixture logit model to predict likelihood of EPS adoption ... Keywords: clustering analysis, electronic payments systems, finite mixture model, hierarchical logit regression, logistic regression, market segmentation

Ravi Bapna; Paulo Goes; Kwok Kee Wei; Zhongju Zhang

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

A hybrid Markov chain for the Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian inference for the multinomial probit model, using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation, has been recently considered by some authors. The present paper introduces a modification of the sampling technique, by defining a hybrid Markov ... Keywords: Bayesian analysis, Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm, Multinomial probit model

Agostino Nobile

1998-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An error was discovered in the original Table 1 of this study. Notably, the Inclusive terms for the upper-nest model were incorrectly calculated thus the theta terms were in error. This revised working paper corrects this error. Also, the corrected upper nest model has a slightly different specification than originally shown in Table 1 in order to satisfy the condition that the theta values lie between 0 and 1. Some additional text is added to the original working paper regarding the new upper level model, however none of the substantive findings or conclusions of the research change as a result. The additional variables added to the upper nest model reveal that low automobile ownership levels tended to be associated with transit-oriented living. We acknowledge that automobile ownership likely both influences and is influenced by transit-oriented living, thus the coefficient on the automobile ownership variables could be subject to endogeneity bias. The revised equation also shows that controlling for other variables in the equation, having individuals 55 years of age and above in a household reduced the likelihood of living near transit. It is also noted that the estimated coefficients in the lower nest binomial logit models for predicting rail commuting (shown in the right-hand

Robert Cervero; Michael Duncan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Multinomial bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent ...

Haruo Hosoya

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

A Note on the Estimation of the Multinomial Logistic Model with Correlated Responses  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We show how multinomial logistic models with correlated responses can be estimated within SAS software. To achieve this, random effects and marginal models are introduced and the respective SAS code is given. An example data set on physicians ’ recommendations and preferences in traumatic brain injury rehabilitation is used for illustration. The main motivation for this work are two recent papers that recommend estimating multinomial logistic models with correlated responses by using a Poisson likelihood which is statistically correct but computationally inefficient.

Oliver Kuss; Dale Mclerran

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge form 27 October 2010 Accepted 27 October 2010 Available online 4 November 2010 Keywords: Coal reserves Coal resources Coal production estimates IPCC Logistic model Cumulative normal model An estimate

Weinreb, Sander

10

A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory  

SciTech Connect

A new method for multinomial inference is proposed by representing the cell probabilities as unordered segments on the unit interval and following Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. The resulting DS posterior is then strengthened to improve symmetry and learning properties with the final posterior model being characterized by a Dirichlet distribution. In addition to computational simplicity, the new model has desirable invariance properties related to category permutations, refinements, and coarsenings. Furthemore, posterior inference on relative probabilities amongst certain cells depends only on data for the cells in question. Finally, the model is quite flexible with regard to parameterization and the range of testable assertions. Comparisons are made to existing methods and illustrated with two examples.

Lawrence, Earl Christopher [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Vander Wiel, Scott [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liu, Chuanhai [PURDUE UNIV; Zhang, Jianchun [PURDUE UNIV

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

WIC Contract Spillover Effects Jeffrey M. Perloff**  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the contract changed. #12;24 Table 2. Multinomial Logit for States with a Contract Change Linear Time Trend Log Brand Market Share Logit for All States Linear Time Trend Log-Linear Time Trend Time Dummies Contract

Perloff, Jeffrey M.

13

Co-relation of Variables Involved in the Occurrence of Crane Accidents in U.S. through Logit Modeling.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

One of the primary reasons of the escalating rates of injuries and fatalities in the construction industry is the ever so complex, dynamic and continually changing nature of construction work. Use of cranes has become imperative to overcome technical challenges, which has lead to escalation of danger on a construction site. Data from OSHA show that crane accidents have increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004. By analyzing the characteristics of all the crane accident inspections, we can better understand the significance of the many variables involved in a crane accident. For this research, data were collected from the U.S. Department of Labor website via the OSHA database. The data encompass crane accident inspections for all the states. The data were divided into categories with respect to accident types, construction operations, degree of accident, fault, contributing factors, crane types, victim’s occupation, organs affected and load. Descriptive analysis was performed to compliment the previous studies, the only difference being that both fatal and non-fatal accidents have been considered. Multinomial regression has been applied to derive probability models and correlation between different accident types and the factors involved for each crane accident type. A log likelihood test as well as chi-square test was performed to validate the models. The results show that electrocution, crane tip over and crushed during assembly/disassembly have more probability of occurrence than other accident types. Load is not a significant factor for the crane accidents, and manual fault is more probable a cause for crane accident than is technical fault. Construction operations identified in the research were found to be significant for all the crane accident types. Mobile crawler crane, mobile truck crane and tower crane were found to be more susceptible. These probability models are limited as far as the inculcation of unforeseen variables in construction accidents are concerned. In fact, these models utilize the past to portray the future, and therefore significant change in the variables involved is required to be added to attain correct and expedient results.

Bains, Amrit Anoop Singh

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Farmers' perception of precision technology: The case of autosteer adoption by cotton farmers  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precision agriculture and autosteer technology are, overall, profitable investments for farmers, as previous literature has established. However, what has not been investigated is whether or not farmers perceive these technologies as such. This research ... Keywords: Autosteer, Farmers' perception, Input cost saving, MNL, Multinomial logit estimation, PA, Precision agriculture, RTK, SCPF, Technology adoption

Jeremy M. D'Antoni; Ashok K. Mishra; Hyunjeong Joo

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Microsoft Word - EPAvalueofMPGreview 24March2010Revision.docx  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Eftec (2008) NMNL UK 2001 to 2006 TBD - authors contacted for clarifications. Fan & Rubin (2009) Fifer & Bunn (2009) Hedonic Price Hedonic Price State of Maine, 2007...

16

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improvement Program (STIP) funds for each bedroom builtmore than $2.2 million of STIP funds were transferred to

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improvement Program (STIP) funds for each bedroom builtmore than $2.2 million of STIP funds were transferred to

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

housing near rail stations, research on self-selection canrail or commuter rail station. Research can also help informfor rail transit to reach their workplaces. This research

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

housing near rail stations, research on self-selection canrail or commuter rail station. Research can also help informfor rail transit to reach their workplaces. This research

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Residential Self Selection and Rail Commuting: A Nested Logit Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Holtzclaw, J. 1994. Using Residential Patterns and TransitOwnership and Use: How Much Does Residential Density Matter?to transit when making residential choices. Table 1. Nested

Cervero, Robert; Duncan, Michael

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "multinomial logit nmnl" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

Greene, D.L.

2001-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

22

Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

sports car Constant for CNG Constant for methanol Std. dev.Gasoline Std. dev. EV Std. dev. CNG Std. dev. methanol Std.wagon Constant for EV Constant for CNG Constant for methanol

Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EV Electric truck Electric sports car Constant for CNGmethanol Electric truck Electric sports car College ´ EV SPEV Electric truck Electric sports car Constant for CNG

Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Residential mobility and location choice: a nested logit model with sampling of alternatives  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Waddell, P. : Modeling residential location in UrbanSim. In:D. (eds. ) Modelling Residential Location Choice. Springer,based model system and a residential location model. Urban

Lee, Brian H.; Waddell, Paul

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

PRISM 2.0: Mixed Logit Consumer Vehicle Choice Modeling Using Revealed Preference Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Predicting the penetration of electric vehicles into the automotive market is challenging because these vehicles do not exist in the market today and therefore consumer reaction is largely unknown. One way to estimate consumer demand for electric vehicles is to model the attribute bundles of vehicles that are present in the market today and predict market share using state-of-the-art discrete choice demand models.This research develops a choice-based demand model to extract consumer ...

2013-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

26

A logit model for predicting wetland location using ASTER and GIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict the location of wetlands in the Coastal Plain of Virginia. We used the first five bands from two ASTER scenes ...

E. Pantaleoni; R. H. Wynne; J. M. Galbraith; J. B. Campbell

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

electric, methanol, and compressed natural gas vehicles withinclude electric, compressed natural gas (CNG), and methanoltypes: gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), methanol, and

Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Qualitative choice modeling of energy-conservation decisions: a micro-economic analysis of the determinants of residential space-heating energy demand  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops an economic model of household decisions to install major conservation measures such as storm windows, attic insulation, and wall insulation. The structural core of the model is the neoclassical economic paradigm of constrained discounted expected utility maximization. Household choices are modeled as being determined by household preferences across space-heating comfort levels and a composite of all other goods and services. These preferences interact with alternative household budget constraints which are determined by the household's conservation decisions. Nested Logit estimation techniques, using the observed discrete choices of a representative sample of households (in owner-occupied, single-family dwellings), are shown to be superior to simple Multinomial Logit estimation. This superiority arises from the importance of correlation among the error terms associated with indirect utility derived from certain subsets of available conservation alternatives.

Cameron, T.A.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the US Department of Energy`s Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model of the world supply and demand for liquid fuels, encompassing resource production, conversion processes, transportation, and consumption. The AFTM also includes fuel-switching behavior by incorporating multinomial logit-type equations for choice of alternative fuel vehicles and alternative fuels. This allows the model to solve for market shares of vehicles and fuels, as well as for fuel prices and quantities. The AFVC model includes fuel-flexible, bi-fuel, and dedicated fuel vehicles. For multi-fuel vehicles, the choice of fuel is subsumed within the vehicle choice framework, resulting in a nested multinomial logit design. The nesting is shown to be required by the different price elasticities of fuel and vehicle choice. A unique feature of the AFVC is that its parameters are derived directly from the characteristics of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies, together with a few key assumptions about consumer behavior. This not only establishes a direct link between assumptions and model predictions, but facilitates sensitivity testing, as well. The implementation of the AFVC model as a spreadsheet is also described.

Greene, D.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Examining solid waste management issues in the City of Bryan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic aspects of household recycling behavior and attitudes in City of Bryan are examined to improve solid waste management policies in the city. Using survey data collected by mail and personal interviews, residentsÂ? attitudes towards solid waste management are analyzed, in general, and specifically, the factors influencing recycling behavior examined using logistic regression. In addition, three alternative policies are presented to respondents. First, support for an additional drop-off recycling center (Policy I) is examined. Second, WTP for two different recycling programs, curbside recycling service (Policy II), and curbside recycling with a drop-off recycling center (Policy III), as a function of socio-economic factors thought to influence WTP are computed using contingent valuation method, an indirect valuation tool. Finally, preference for a particular policy among the three alternatives presented to the residents of Bryan is explored. Because of the different data collection modes and assumptions on the bid prices two logit models are estimated to examine recycling behavior, and Policy I and two multinomial logit models for the most preferred policy, whereas four logit models are estimated for Policy II and III. The estimated models are similar both within the Policies and between the Policies in terms of the affects of variables, significance of coefficients, and consistency with previous studies indicating a potential set of factors that can be used to explain WTP for recycling services. Bryan residents that are female, white, employed, have higher incomes, have children, own a house, and are self-perceived environmentalists tend to recycle more. Similarly, males, nonwhites, older respondents, students, non-environmentalists and non-recyclers are more likely to support an additional drop-off center. WTP for Policy II is positively influenced by males, whites, respondents who are employed, low-income respondents, environmentalists, non-recyclers, and those who support Policy I. In comparison, WTP for Policy III is positively influenced by females, whites, respondents who are employed, younger respondents, environmentalists, non-recyclers, and those who support Policy I. In the case of both Policies I and II, the bid price negatively influences WTP as expected. While the WTP for Policy II is slightly higher than the estimated cost of a curbside recycling service ($2.50), the WTP for Policy III is lower than the estimated cost. No consistent pattern emerges across most of the coefficients and the four possible alternatives, three proposed policies and the current situation. However, probabilities computed using the multinomial logit results is the highest for Policy II, followed by either Policy III or no change to the existing solid waste management policy.

Arekere, Dhananjaya Marigowda

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Does Homeownership Lengthen Unemployment Duration? A French Micro-econometric Study  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The objective of this paper is to provide microeconomic evidence for the so called “Oswald’s hypothesis”, which is whether homeownership results in negative outcomes in the labour market. In a first step, a multinomial logit model for the choice of tenure status is estimated. Estimated probabilities of being either homeowner, renter or housed free of charge are then used to explain the length of an individual unemployment spell. This flexible method of estimation accounts for both censoring and selection bias, without constraining the shape of the hazard rate of leaving unemployment. Results from a 3,965 individuals French data set suggest that home-ownership has a positive effect on unemployment duration.

Carole Brunet; Jean-yves Lesueur; Jel Codes C; R I. Introduction

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Household appliance choice: revision of REEPS behavioral models. Final report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the analysis of household decisions to install space heating, central cooling, and water heating in new housing as well as decisions to own freezers and second refrigerators. This analysis was conducted as part of the enhancements to the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS) under EPRI project RP1918-1. The empirical models used in this analysis were the multinomial logit and its generalization the nested logit. The choice model parameters were estimated statistically on national and regional survey data. The results show that capital and operating costs are significant determinants of appliance market penetrations, and the relative magnitudes of the cost coefficients imply discount rates ranging from 3.4 to twenty-one percent. Several tests were conducted to examine the temporal and geographical stability of the key parameters. The estimated parameters have been incorporated into the REEPS computer code. The revised version of REEPS is now available on a limited release basis to EPRI member utilities for testing on their system.

Goett, A.A.

1984-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Modeling the residential demand for energy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand for energy is derived from the demand for services that appliances and energy together provide. This raises a number of serious econometric issues when estimating energy-demand functions: delineation of short-run and long-run household responses, specification of the price variable and in particular, the assumption that the model is recursive, or in other words, that the appliance choice equation and the energy consumption equation are uncorrelated. The dissertation utilizes a structural model of energy use whose theoretical underpinnings derive from the conditional logit model and an extension of that model to the joint-discrete/continuous case by Dubin and McFadden (1980). It uses the 1978 to 1979 National Interim Energy Comsumption Survey. Three appliance portfolio choices are analyzed; choice of water and space heating and central air-conditioning; choice of room air conditioners; and choice of clothes dryers, either as multinomial logit or binary probit choices. Results varied widely across the appliance choice considered; use of Hausman's test led to acceptance of the null hypothesis of orthogonality in some cases but not in others. Demand for electricity and natural gas tended to be price inelastic; however, estimated own-price effects differed considerably when disaggregated by appliance categories and across methods of estimation.

Kirby, S.N.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 - Transportation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

transportation demand module (TRAN) forecasts the consumption of transportation sector fuels by transportation mode, including the use of renewables and alternative fuels, subject to delivered prices of energy fuels and macroeconomic variables, including disposable personal income, gross domestic product, level of imports and exports, industrial output, new car and light truck sales, and population. The structure of the module is shown in Figure 8. transportation demand module (TRAN) forecasts the consumption of transportation sector fuels by transportation mode, including the use of renewables and alternative fuels, subject to delivered prices of energy fuels and macroeconomic variables, including disposable personal income, gross domestic product, level of imports and exports, industrial output, new car and light truck sales, and population. The structure of the module is shown in Figure 8. Figure 8. Transportation Demand Module Structure NEMS projections of future fuel prices influence the fuel efficiency, vehicle-miles traveled, and alternative-fuel vehicle (AFV) market penetration for the current fleet of vehicles. Alternative-fuel shares are projected on the basis of a multinomial logit vehicle attribute model, subject to State and Federal government mandates.

35

Household waste disposal in Mekelle city, Northern Ethiopia  

SciTech Connect

In many cities of developing countries, such as Mekelle (Ethiopia), waste management is poor and solid wastes are dumped along roadsides and into open areas, endangering health and attracting vermin. The effects of demographic factors, economic and social status, waste and environmental attributes on household solid waste disposal are investigated using data from household survey. Household level data are then analyzed using multinomial logit estimation to determine the factors that affect household waste disposal decision making. Results show that demographic features such as age, education and household size have an insignificant impact over the choice of alternative waste disposal means, whereas the supply of waste facilities significantly affects waste disposal choice. Inadequate supply of waste containers and longer distance to these containers increase the probability of waste dumping in open areas and roadsides relative to the use of communal containers. Higher household income decreases the probability of using open areas and roadsides as waste destinations relative to communal containers. Measures to make the process of waste disposal less costly and ensuring well functioning institutional waste management would improve proper waste disposal.

Tadesse, Tewodros [Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1 6706 KN Wageningen (Netherlands)], E-mail: tewodroslog@yahoo.com; Ruijs, Arjan [Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen (Netherlands); Hagos, Fitsum [International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Subregional Office for the Nile Basin and East Africa, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Analysis of Whole Milk vs. Low-Fat Milk Consumption Among WIC Children Before Programmatic Changes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is one of the food assistance programs targeted at low-income women, infants and children up to age five by providing foods, nutrition education and other services. Recent updates in food packages provided by WIC include the addition of fruits, vegetables and whole wheat products as well as the removal of whole milk for women and children two years and older. This thesis concentrates on preschool children participants in the WIC program and their milk consumption habits prior to programmatic changes. Analyzing diet preferences of these children is crucial since a quarter of the population of children aged one thorough five participates in the WIC program; as well, they are not eligible to receive whole milk with WIC food packages after the implementation of revisions. The objective is to describe the profile of preschool WIC children and their milk consumption attributes based on the National Food and Nutrition (NATFAN) questionnaire designed and conducted by the Institute for Obesity Research and Program Evaluation at Texas A & M University before the release of the revised WIC food packages. Additionally, findings of the study are compared with the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2006 dataset results. Milk consumption preferences of WIC children are analyzed nationwide and impacts of race, ethnicity, regional, and other demographic characteristics are observed. Using both NATFAN and NHANES datasets provides a comparison of actual and self-reported participation outcomes. Discrete choice models were used in this analysis, in particular binary logit and multinomial logit models. The results of the thesis indicate that WIC preschool children mostly drink whole milk (36.17 percent) and 2 percent fat milk (49.94 percent). Two year old participants, children located in the South and participants whose caregivers are younger and less educated are more likely to consume whole milk. Caucasian children are less likely to choose whole milk and more likely to choose reduced fat milk; African Americans are more likely to select whole milk. Furthermore, diet preferences and knowledge of parents/caregivers play a major role on milk consumption of children. Children whose caregivers are willing to give low-fat milk to children aged two to five are less likely to drink whole milk.

Bayar, Emine

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Spatial Analysis of Residential Development and Urban-Rural Zoning in Baltimore County, Maryland  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the past half-century, Baltimore County, Maryland has experienced various policy measures that have shaped development patterns. This thesis analyzes three spatially explicit parcel-level models of residential development in Baltimore County to examine the effects of land-use regulations on multiple density classes from 1996 to 2008. The first model analyzes the entire county, while the second analyzes areas outside the county urban growth boundary, while the third model studied areas inside the boundary. While this region has been previously analyzed, prior studies have generally ignored policy affects upon the density of new residential subdivisions. The use of a binary dependent variable, i.e. develop or not develop, represents a critical oversight as this assumes policy measures exert a uniform impact across all development types. This study addressed this issue with the literature by using a multinomial logit model to differentiate the effects of various development policies to better understand residential growth. The objective of this research is to determine what factors influence individual landowner's decision to convert an undeveloped property to residential use. The impacts of rural conservation (RC) zoning and urban growth boundaries (UGB) comprise the prominent land-use regulations analyzed in this study. The empirical estimates provided significant evidence that maximum density zoning effectively limits the density of new residential development in almost every model. Other policy measures, mainly rural legacy areas and critical areas, were generally found to be ineffective at limiting growth. This research concludes that maximum density zoning comprises the strongest tool for limiting development to a density mandated by the county government. Finally, maps depicting the predicted probability of development at two densities are included and discussed to indicate the areas most likely to be subdivided for residential land use.

Griffin, Alexander C.

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Administration Written by Billie HardinExecutive Summary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(KCTCS) has excelled in many areas of its open enrollment or open access mission. Yet, many KCTCS students do not persist to graduate with a credential or transfer to a 4-year postsecondary institution. The Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education (CPE), reports that of the fall 2001 students who entered KCTCS colleges, only 50.2 percent earned a degree, transferred to a 4-year college or university, or were still enrolled in a KCTCS college within three years. CPE further reports that more than half of Kentucky’s 2004 entering postsecondary freshmen were underprepared in at least one subject. The majority of these students enrolled in one of 16 colleges comprising KCTCS. When all KCTCS firsttime, 2004 credential seeking freshmen are included (such as adult learners), 82 percent of students entering KCTCS colleges required developmental education at an estimated cost of more than $15.6 million. It is estimated that Kentucky’s General Fund costs for remediation instruction during the 2004-05 academic year totaled over $13.2 million dollars. Research Strategy Using a multinomial logit analysis, the paper focuses on identifying statistically significant variables that affect the conditional probability of KCTCS students succeeding. The study sample includes 10,007 first-time KCTCS students entering fall 2001 and examines the affect that 13 predictor variables have on the odds of KCTCS students achieving one of four success outcomes relative to not achieving success. Defining success as credential attainment (earning an associate degree, certificate, or diploma) or transfer to a 4-year institution, the following questions guide the research: ? Does a student’s ACT score increase the likelihood of success? ? Is a student’s first semester GPA a significant predictor of student success? How likely are nontraditional students to succeed? Are students who are offered Pell Grants less likely to succeed than students who do not receive such aid?

unknown authors

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

Greene, D.L.

2004-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

40

Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Washington, D.C. : IMF. Mendis, Chandima (1998), “External1997. Multiv. logit Mendis (1998) 1, 3 Other determinants ofof 41 developing countries, Mendis (1998) finds that adverse

Eichengreen, Barry; Arteta, Carlos

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "multinomial logit nmnl" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

The Open Source Stochastic Building Simulation Tool SLBM and Its Capabilities to Capture Uncertainty of Policymaking in the U.S. Building Sector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the net macrogrid electricity demand. Future work willelectricity price Electricity demand Logit function On-siteto calculate the electricity demand distribution. Expert

Stadler, Michael

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

The Quotient of the beta-Weibull Distribution.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??A new class of distributions recently developed involves the logit of the beta distribution. Among this class of distributions are, the beta-Normal (Eugene et al.… (more)

Mdziniso, Nonhle Channon

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

The Beta Maxwell Distribution.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??In this work we considered a general class of distributions gener- ated from the logit of the beta random variable. We looked at various works… (more)

Amusan, Grace Ebunoluwa

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Estimating Nonparametric Random Utility Models with an Application to the Value of Time in Heterogeneous Populations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The estimation of random parameters by means of mixed logit models is now current practice for the analysis of transportation behaviour. One of the most straightforward applications is the derivation of willingness-to-pay distribution over a heterogeneous ... Keywords: B-spline, constrained optimization, mixed logit, nonparametric estimation

Fabian Bastin; Cinzia Cirillo; Philippe L. Toint

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

A simple estimator for the distribution of random coefficients  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose a simple mixtures estimator for recovering the joint distribution of parameter heterogeneity in economic models, such as the random coefficients logit. The estimator is based on linear regression subject to ...

Ryan, Stephen

46

Statistical Properties of a Convoluted Beta-Weibull Distribution.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??A new class of distributions recently developed involves the logit of the beta distribution. Among this class of distributions are the beta-normal (Eugene et.al. (2002));… (more)

Sun, Jianan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Simulate Daily Rainfall and Extremes in Ontario, Canada: Potential for Climate Change Projections  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automated synoptic weather typing and stepwise cumulative logit/nonlinear regression analyses were employed to simulate the occurrence and quantity of daily rainfall events. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal component ...

Chad Shouquan Cheng; Guilong Li; Qian Li; Heather Auld

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

A Transaction Cost Perspective of the "Software as a Service" Business Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Application service providers (ASP), which host and maintain information technology (IT) applications across the Internet, offer an alternative to traditional models of IT service for user firms. We build on prior literature in transaction cost economics ... Keywords: Application Service Providers, Contract Choice, Logit Models, Transaction Cost Economics

Anjana Susarla; Anitesh Barua; Andrew Whinston

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

An Empirical Analysis of Scarcity Strategies in the Automobile Industry  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent product introductions such as the Xbox 360, Sony Playstation 2, and PT Cruiser have been characterized by shortage of these products. Some experts have suggested that such scarcity can be a deliberate strategy for making the product more desirable. ... Keywords: aggregate logit models, competitive strategy, econometrics, economic theory testing, marketing, new products, signaling

Subramanian Balachander; Yan Liu; Axel Stock

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Principal component analysis of binary data by iterated singular value decomposition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The maximum-likelihood estimates of a principal component analysis on the logit or probit scale are computed using majorization algorithms that iterate a sequence of weighted or unweighted singular value decompositions. The relation with similar methods ... Keywords: Applications to social sciences, Binary data, Factor analysis, Item response models, Multivariate analysis

Jan de Leeuw

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

A Conjoint Model of Quantity Discounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantity discount pricing is a common practice used by business-to-business and business-to-consumer companies. A key characteristic of quantity discount pricing is that the marginal price declines with higher purchase quantities. In this paper, we propose ... Keywords: choice models, conjoint analysis, mixed logit, quantity discounts, willingness to pay

Raghuram Iyengar; Kamel Jedidi

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

A Spatial Structural and Statistical Approach to Building Classification of Residential Function for City-Scale Impact Assessment Studies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to implement robust climate change adaption and mitigation strategies in cities fine spatial scale information on building stock is required. However, for many cities such information is rarely available. In response, we present a methodology ... Keywords: City Spatial Planning and Impact Assessment, Morphological and Spatial Metrics, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Residential Building Classification

Dimitrios P. Triantakonstantis; Stuart L. Barr

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Comparative Evaluation of Two Methods to Estimate Natural Gas Production in Texas  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This report describes an evaluation conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in August 2003 of two methods that estimate natural gas production in Texas. The first method (parametric method) was used by EIA from February through August 2003 and the second method (multinomial method) replaced it starting in September 2003, based on the results of this evaluation.

Information Center

2003-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

54

Text segmentation: A topic modeling perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the task of text segmentation is approached from a topic modeling perspective. We investigate the use of two unsupervised topic models, latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and multinomial mixture (MM), to segment a text into semantically ... Keywords: Dynamic programming, Latent Dirichlet allocation, Semantic information, Text segmentation, Topic modeling

Hemant Misra; François Yvon; Olivier Cappé; Joemon Jose

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Credit Rating Change Modeling Using News and Financial Ratios  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Credit ratings convey credit risk information to participants in financial markets, including investors, issuers, intermediaries, and regulators. Accurate credit rating information plays a crucial role in supporting sound financial decision-making processes. ... Keywords: Credit rating changes, SVM, latent Dirichlet allocation, missing-tolerant multinomial probit, news coverage, news sentiment, topic-specific news coverage, topic-specific news sentiment

Hsin-Min Lu; Feng-Tse Tsai; Hsinchun Chen; Mao-Wei Hung; Shu-Hsing Li

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Application of Random-SMOTE on Imbalanced Data Mining  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of many classifiers based on balanced data sets can't do well in imbalanced data sets. This article integrates the over-sampling method of Random-SMOTE (R-S), which is based on SMOTE method, in imbalanced data mining. We use the R-S method ... Keywords: Imbalaced Data set, Data Mining, Integrated use of Random-SMOTE and logit

Jia Li; Hui Li; Jun-Ling Yu

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Dose-response analysis of infants prenatally exposed to methyl mercury: An application of a single compartment model to single-strand hair analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new method of estimating fetal exposure is used in a dose-response analysis of data from the 1971 outbreak of methyl mercury poisoning in rural Iraq. An X-ray fluorescence instrument for the measurement of single strands of human hair was employed to obtain longitudinal profiles recapitulating fetal exposure. Logit and hockey-stick models as well as nonparametric smoothing are used to describe data on delayed development and central nervous system abnormality.

Cox, C.; Clarkson, T.W.; Marsh, D.O.; Amin-Zaki, L.; Tikriti, S.; Myers, G.G. (Univ. of Rochester School of Medicine, New York, NY (USA))

1989-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

CATDAT : A Program for Parametric and Nonparametric Categorical Data Analysis : User's Manual Version 1.0, 1998-1999 Progress Report.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Natural resource professionals are increasingly required to develop rigorous statistical models that relate environmental data to categorical responses data. Recent advances in the statistical and computing sciences have led to the development of sophisticated methods for parametric and nonparametric analysis of data with categorical responses. The statistical software package CATDAT was designed to make some of these relatively new and powerful techniques available to scientists. The CATDAT statistical package includes 4 analytical techniques: generalized logit modeling; binary classification tree; extended K-nearest neighbor classification; and modular neural network.

Peterson, James T.

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Modeling dynamic diurnal patterns in high frequency financial data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-t-EGARCH and can be used to contribute to studies of high-frequency asset returns including the seminal paper by Andersen and Bollerslev (1998). Although we use the DCS model as a vehicle for illustrating the usefulness of the dynamic cubic spline for high... ) independently study decomposition models for estimating the conditional dynamics of p via the logit link. An interesting extension of our model is a hybrid spline-DCS model 7The unconditional nth moment of X is well-defined as long as it is well-defined for F...

Ito, Ryoko

2013-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

60

Regional Incentives and Industrial Location in Puerto Rico  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study uses nested logit to estimate the influence of industrial incentives on the location of manufacturing plants in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rican laws grant generous tax exemptions and provide other incentives for investments in less-developed, peripheral regions of the island. Focusing on Puerto Rico allowed us to isolate and test location factors in a closed environment where 76 municipalities received a development zone designation and competed directly against one another for new plants. Simulations indicated that the regional incentive policy reallocated relatively few of the greenfield investments from the congested core to the periphery of the island. Regional Incentives and Industrial Location in Puerto Rico 1.

Paulo Guimaraes; Robert J. Rolfe; Douglas P. Woodward

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "multinomial logit nmnl" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Using Financial Ratios to Identify Romanian Distressed Companies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In the context of the current financial crisis, when more companies are facing bankruptcy or insolvency, the paper aims to find methods to identify distressed firms by using financial ratios. The study will focus on identifying a group of Romanian listed companies, for which financial data for the year 2008 were available. For each company a set of 14 financial indicators was calculated and then used in a principal component analysis, followed by a cluster analysis, a logit model, and a CHAID classification tree.

Andreica, Madalina Ecaterina; Andreica, Marin

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Analyzing Data for Systems Biology: Working at the Intersection of Thermodynamics and Data Analytics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many challenges in systems biology have to do with analyzing data within the framework of molecular phenomena and cellular pathways. How does this relate to thermodynamics that we know govern the behavior of molecules? Making progress in relating data analysis to thermodynamics is essential in systems biology if we are to build predictive models that enable the field of synthetic biology. This report discusses work at the crossroads of thermodynamics and data analysis, and demonstrates that statistical mechanical free energy is a multinomial log likelihood. Applications to systems biology are presented.

Cannon, William R.; Baxter, Douglas J.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

63

A REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYSIS IN EPRI EA-3409,"HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE CHOICE: REVISION OF REEPS BEHAVIORAL MODELS"  

SciTech Connect

This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.

Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H.; McMahon, J. E.

1989-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Errata  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 as of 4/4/2000 1. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 4-Speed Automatic" should be .045 instead of .030. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 5-Speed Automatic" should be .065 instead of .045. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 2. Table 28 should be labeled: "Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Attribute Inputs for Compact Cars for Two Stage Logit Model". (Change made on 3/6/2000) 3. The capital costs in Table 29 should read 1998 dollars not 1988 dollars. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 4. Table 37 changed the label "Year Available" to "First Year Completed." Changed the second sentence of Footnote 1 to read "these estimates are costs of new projects

65

Estimation of binary Markov random fields  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The theoryand practiceof estimationof binary Markov random fields on lattices is reviewedand advanced. The natural objects of inference are the local conditionaldistributions, which define an exponential family owing to the equivalence between Markov and Gibbs random fields. Maximumlikelihoodestimation generally is impracticable. Methods of asymptotic, or otherwise approximate, maximum likelihood estimation do not easily apply in all cases likely to be of practical interest. The only generallypracticableprocedures available thus far are the Coding Method and MaximumPseudo-Likelihood. A new estimation procedure is suggestedthat is strongly consistentfor processesdefined by translation-invariant families of local conditionaldistributions. The procedure is analogous to minimum logit chi-squareestimation in logistic regression, does not involve non-linearoptimization, and decisively beats Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood in mean squarederror. Subsarnpling techniques can be employed to assess precision,and to increase efficiency, in estimation.

Antonio Possolo; Anond Possolo

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Department of Agricultural and Resource EconomicsDetermining the Impact of Retailer Store Brand Procurement on Vertical Relationships with Brand Manufacturers and on Market Equilibrium †  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper investigates how a retailer’s store brand supply source impacts vertical pricing and supply channel profitability. Using chain-level retail scanner data from major supermarkets in Boston prior to the leading retailer’s divestiture of its store brand milk processing to a major brand manufacturer I estimate a random coefficients logit demand model employing a Bayesian estimation approach. Bayesian decision theory is applied to select from a set of pricing games the one most likely for the data sample analyzed. Results from this analysis indicate that the empirically valid model has the pre-divested retailer integrated into the processing of its own milk and takes as given the wholesale price of brand milks while competing retailers have nonlinear pricing contracts with brand manufacturers who produce their store brands. This model is matched against a series of counterfactual simulations as a baseline. The counterfactual simulations consider the eventual divestiture of store brand milk processing by the leading retailer

Michael A. Cohen; Michael A. Cohen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES  

SciTech Connect

How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

Liu, Changzheng [ORNL] [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL] [ORNL

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Estimating disaggregated price elasticities in industrial energy demand  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Econometric energy models are used to evaluate past policy experiences, assess the impact of future policies and forecast energy demand. This paper estimates an industrial energy demand model for the province of Ontario using a linear-logit specification for fuel type equations which are embedded in an aggregate energy demand equation. Short-term, long-term, own- and cross-price elasticities are estimated for electricity, natural gas, oil and coal. Own- and cross-price elasticities are disaggregated to show that overall price elasticities and the energy-constant price elasticities when aggregate energy use is held unchanged. These disaggregations suggest that a substantial part of energy conservation comes from the higher aggregate price of energy and not from interfuel substitution. 13 refs., 2 tabs.

Elkhafif, M.A.T. (Ontario Ministry of Energy, Toronto (Canada))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Bayesian inference through encompassing priors and importance sampling for a class of marginal models for categorical data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits (local, global, continuation or reverse continuation), generalised log-odds ratios and similar higher-order interactions. For each constrained model, the prior distribution of the model parameters is formulated following the encompassing prior approach. Then, model selection is performed by using Bayes factors which are estimated by an importance sampling method. The approach is illustrated through three applications involving some datasets, which also include explanatory variables. In connection with one of these examples, a sensitivity analysis to the prior specification is also considered.

Bartolucci, Francesco; Farcomeni, Alessio

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Smoking, Drinking, and Income  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A growing literature identifies a beneficial effect of moderate and even heavy drinking on wages and a negative effect of smoking on wages. An outstanding issue is whether these results obtain because of a causal effect of substance use on wages or whether the observed correlations reflect the effects of income on consumption or other endogeneity problems. This paper presents full information estimates of the structural parameters of a simultaneous model of drinking and smoking status and income using repeated cross--section data. With all else in the system held constant, both smoking and drinking behaviour still have large effects on income, and the income elasticities of smoking and drinking are shown to be larger in magnitude when controlling for endogeneity. JEL Classification: I12 Keywords: alcohol, tobacco, simultaneous equations, maximum simulated likelihood, multinomial probit, limited dependent variables 1 I thank Cam Donaldson, Herb Emery, David Feeny, Chris Ferrall, Jon ...

Mingshan Lu; James Mackinnon; Ken Mckenzie; Harry Paarsche; Seminar Participants; M. Christopher Auld; M. Christopher Auld

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

USER 2.1; User Specified Estimation Routine, Techncial Manual 2003.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This document is primarily a description of the user interface for USER2.1; it is not a description of the statistical theory and calculations behind USER. This project is funded by the Bonneville Power Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract No. 004126, Project No. 198910700 as part of the BPA's program to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife affected by the development and operation of hydroelectric facilities on the Columbia River and its tributaries. The analysis of fish and wildlife data requires investigators to have the ability to develop statistical models tailored to their study requirements. Hence, a flexible platform to develop statistical likelihood models to estimate demographic parameters is necessary. To this end, Program USER (User Specified Estimation Routine) was developed to provide a convenient platform for investigators to develop statistical models and analyze tagging and count data. The program is capable of developing models and analyzing any count data that can be described by multinomial or product multinomial distributions. Such data include release-recapture studies using PIT-tags, radio-tags, balloon-tags, and acoustic-tags to estimate survival, movement, and demographic data on the age and/or sex structure of wild populations. The user of the program can specify the parameters and model structure at will to tailor the analyses to the specific requirements of the field sampling program, the data, and populations under investigation. All of this is available without the need for the user to know advanced programming languages or numerical analysis techniques, and without involving cumbersome software developed for extraneous purposes. Program USER represents a powerful statistical modeling routine that can be readily used by investigators with a wide range of interests and quantitative skills.

Lady, James; Westhagen, Peter; Skalski, John

2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Pulse pileup statistics for energy discriminating photon counting x-ray detectors  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: Energy discriminating photon counting x-ray detectors can be subject to a wide range of flux rates if applied in clinical settings. Even when the incident rate is a small fraction of the detector's maximum periodic rate N{sub 0}, pulse pileup leads to count rate losses and spectral distortion. Although the deterministic effects can be corrected, the detrimental effect of pileup on image noise is not well understood and may limit the performance of photon counting systems. Therefore, the authors devise a method to determine the detector count statistics and imaging performance. Methods: The detector count statistics are derived analytically for an idealized pileup model with delta pulses of a nonparalyzable detector. These statistics are then used to compute the performance (e.g., contrast-to-noise ratio) for both single material and material decomposition contrast detection tasks via the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) as a function of the detector input count rate. With more realistic unipolar and bipolar pulse pileup models of a nonparalyzable detector, the imaging task performance is determined by Monte Carlo simulations and also approximated by a multinomial method based solely on the mean detected output spectrum. Photon counting performance at different count rates is compared with ideal energy integration, which is unaffected by count rate. Results: The authors found that an ideal photon counting detector with perfect energy resolution outperforms energy integration for our contrast detection tasks, but when the input count rate exceeds 20%N{sub 0}, many of these benefits disappear. The benefit with iodine contrast falls rapidly with increased count rate while water contrast is not as sensitive to count rates. The performance with a delta pulse model is overoptimistic when compared to the more realistic bipolar pulse model. The multinomial approximation predicts imaging performance very close to the prediction from Monte Carlo simulations. The monoenergetic image with maximum contrast-to-noise ratio from dual energy imaging with ideal photon counting is only slightly better than with dual kVp energy integration, and with a bipolar pulse model, energy integration outperforms photon counting for this particular metric because of the count rate losses. However, the material resolving capability of photon counting can be superior to energy integration with dual kVp even in the presence of pileup because of the energy information available to photon counting. Conclusions: A computationally efficient multinomial approximation of the count statistics that is based on the mean output spectrum can accurately predict imaging performance. This enables photon counting system designers to directly relate the effect of pileup to its impact on imaging statistics and how to best take advantage of the benefits of energy discriminating photon counting detectors, such as material separation with spectral imaging.

Wang, Adam S.; Harrison, Daniel; Lobastov, Vladimir; Tkaczyk, J. Eric [Departments of Electrical Engineering and Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); GE Global Research Center, Niskayuna, New York 12309 (United States)

2011-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

73

The Determinants of Homeonwership in Presence of Shocks Experienced by Mexican Households  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Homeownership is both an individual and society objective, because of the positive neighborhood effects associated with areas of higher homeownership. To help realize these positive effects, the Mexican government has several programs directed to increasing homeownership. Many factors, however, may influence homeownership including shocks experienced by households. Shocks such as death in family, illness or accidents, unemployment, and business, crop, or livestock loss affect homeownership if households are unable to cushion the impact of the shock. Government income support programs, however, may help cushion the effect of a shock. The main objective is to determine how shocks that households’ experience and government income support programs influence homeownership in Mexico. A secondary objective is to determine how socio-demographic variables influence homeownership in Mexico. Based on the Random Utility Model, logit models of homeownership are estimated using data are from the 2002 Mexican National Survey on Living Levels of Households. Two models are estimated; with and without income. Income is excluded because of a large number of households that did not report income. Generally, inferences from the two models are similar. Homeownership appears to not be affected by shocks experienced by households. It appears households are able to cushion the impact of shocks. The two income support programs, the Program of Direct Rural Support of Mexico (PROGRESA) and the Program of Direct Rural Support of Mexico (PROCAMPO), appear to be increasing homeownership. These social welfare programs provide cash transfers to households. For whatever reason, PROGRESA has a larger effect on homeownership than PROCAMPO. Households with older heads have a larger probability of being a homeowner than households with younger heads. No statistically significance relationship exists between education and homeownership. Regional differences are seen in homeownership, with households located in the northwest region having a higher probability of homeownership than other regions. Differences in the significance of variable representing the household head’s gender, marital status, and occupation on homeownership exist between logit models that include and do not include current income. The most likely reason for these differences is interactions between the variables and a wealth effect.

Lopez Cabrera, Jesus 1977-

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

The Determinants of Hazardous Waste Disposal Choice:  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper, we estimate conditional logit models of generator’s choice of waste management facilities (TSDFs) for shipments of halogenated solvent waste documented by the manifests filled out in California in 1995. We find that the probability that a facility is selected as the destination of an off-site shipment of halogenated solvent waste depends on the cost of shipping and disposal at that facility, on measures of existing contamination at the site, and on the track record of the receiving facility. Generators do seem to balance current disposal costs with the likelihood of future liability, should the TSDF become involved in either the state or federal Superfund program. In general, we find no evidence that generators prefer “wealthier ” TSDFs or “larger ” facilities, suggesting that there is a role for smaller, private companies in the management of halogenated solvent waste. When attention is limited to so-called “restricted ” wastes containing halogenated compounds, which cannot be landfilled, the best match between the waste and the treatment offered by the facility may be more important than saving on the cost of disposal, and price may even be interpreted as a signal for quality of the facility. 3

Anna Alberini; John Bartholomew; Anna Alberini; John Bartholomew

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

PRICE RIGIDITY ON THE INTERNET: NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE ONLINE BOOKSELLING INDUSTRY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study reports on an econometric analysis of a new theoretical model for price rigidity in Internet-based bookselling. We consider a variety of theoretical perspectives from marketing and economics. We specify and test a model using data on 387 books sold on the Internet that were collected over a 309-day period in 2003 and 2004. The aggregate data are built based on 1,162,149 daily observations, and provide a reading on the variation in prices of homogeneous products for between three and eleven different “stores ” on the Internet. We obtained a number of interesting findings from the estimation of the grouped logit model. More frequent price adjustments in Internet-based selling appear to be associated with higher-priced goods, consumer expectations of ongoing price promotions, and popular products. Nine-price endings are associated with greater price rigidity, as are low-priced products. We also found that Internetbased sellers use shipping fees as a means to adjust prices. Taken together, our results indicate the roles of both price elements and non-price elements in explaining price rigidity.

Robert J. Kauffman; Dongwon Lee

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Assessment Of Carbon Leakage In Multiple Carbon-Sink Projects: ACase Study In Jambi Province, Indonesia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land throughimplementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbonstock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which iscommonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestrationbenefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects thatcould potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of elevensub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra,Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/coverbeing converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. Thepredictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area,distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agriculturalland, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, populationdensity and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and withoutcarbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated asbeing significant in their contribution to land use cover change. Theresults of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be largeenough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefitsduring the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitiveto changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. Byreducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10 percent for thebaseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collectionand refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study hasdemonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assessleakage.

Boer, Rizaldi; Wasrin, Upik R.; Hendri, Perdinan; Dasanto,Bambang D.; Makundi, Willy; Hero, Julius; Ridwan, M.; Masripatin, Nur

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

The Distributive Impact Assessment Model (DIAM): Technology share component  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The models described in this report are used to allocate total energy consumption in an energy end-use service area by fuel type (including electricity) within the Distributive Impact Assessment Model (DIAM) framework. The primary objective of the DIAM is to provide energy consumption and expenditure forecasts for different population categories that are consistent with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration`s (EIA`s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) forecast, which is produced annually in the Annual Energy Outlook and periodically in support of DOE policy formulation and analysis. The models are multinominal logit models that have been estimated using EIA`s 1990 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Three models were estimated: space heating share, water heating share, and cooking share. These models are used to allocate total end-use service consumption over different technologies defined by fuel type characteristics. For each of the end-use service categories, consumption shares are estimated for a subset of six fuel types: natural gas, electricity, liquid petroleum gas, fuel oil/kerosene, wood, and other fuel.

Poyer, D.A.; Earl, E.; Bonner, B.

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.

Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J.; Anderson, J.L.

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Center for Demography of Health and Aging at the University of Wisconsin (P30 AG017266).2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Infant mortality at birth may help illuminate the usefulness of season of birth as an indicator of early life exposures. We obtained data for infant mortality rates (IMR) at the county (municipio) level during the late 1920s-early 1940s in Puerto Rico using historical records and linked IMR with individual birth year and place using the PREHCO (Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions) study. We classified PREHCO respondents into two groups according to high or low infectious disease load, corresponding to lower or higher proportion endogenous mortality in the year respondents were born. We estimated the effects of IMR (using continuous, logit, quartile, Box-Cox transformations) and season of birth on adult heart disease and diabetes for all respondents and then by subgroups, controlling for age, gender, obesity, respondent’s educational level, adult behavior (smoking, exercise) and other early life exposures (childhood health, knee height, childhood SES). Findings: (1) no significant associations between IMR and heart disease or diabetes but significant associations between high IMR and low knee height, low education, older age and no rigorous exercise as an adult; (2) stronger effects of season of birth on adult health among respondents born in years with lower infectious disease loads; (3) strong

Mary Mceniry; Mary Mceniry

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

WINDOW OPENING BEHAVIOUR IN A NATURALLY VENTILATED SCHOOL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Several studies have highlighted the significant disparities between the predicted performance of new buildings and their post occupancy measured performance. Occupant window opening behaviour has been shown to have a significant impact on both classroom indoor air quality and building energy use; and is currently poorly represented in building simulation tools. A post occupancy assessment of a new primary school was performed over a period of over one year. Concurrent measurement of window open state, CO2 concentration, temperature, and exterior environmental conditions were taken at a frequency of two minutes. In addition, classroom daily occupancy levels and monthly building energy usage were recorded. A probabilistic model of the proportion of windows open throughout the day as the occupants interact with the windows was developed based on the results of multinomial logistic regression analysis. The model was used to schedule window opening in the EnergyPlus simulation program. Predictions of both CO2 concentration and building energy performance, using the occupant behaviour model, were shown to give more accurate predictions than a model based on temperature set points.

Spencer Dutton; Li Shao

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

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81

Development of Improved Traveler Survey Methods for High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Planning  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

High-speed passenger rail is seen by many in the U.S. transportation policy and planning communities as an ideal solution for fast, safe, and resource-efficient mobility in high-demand intercity corridors. To expand the body of knowledge for high-speed intercity passenger rail in the U.S., the overall goal of this dissertation was to better understand the demand for high-speed intercity passenger rail services in small- or medium-sized intermediate communities and improve planners' ability to estimate such demand through traveler surveys; specifically, the use of different experimental designs for stated preference questions and the use of images to describe hypothetical travel alternatives in traveler surveys. In pursuit of this goal, an Internet-based survey was distributed to residents of Waco and Temple, two communities located along the federally-designated South Central High-Speed Rail Corridor in Central Texas. A total of 1,160 surveys were obtained from residents of the two communities. Mixed logit travel mode choice models developed from the survey data revealed valuable findings that can inform demand estimates and the design of traveler surveys for high-speed intercity passenger rail planning activities. Based on the analysis presented in this dissertation, ridership estimates for new high-speed intercity passenger rail lines that are planned to serve intermediate communities should not assume that residents of these communities have similar characteristics and values. The d-efficient stated preference experimental design was found to provide a mode choice model with a better fit and greater significance on key policy variables than the adaptive design and therefore is recommended for use in future surveys. Finally, it is recommended that surveys should consider the use of images of proposed train services to aid respondent decision-making for stated preference questions, but only if the images used in the survey depict equipment that could be realistically deployed in the corridor.

Sperry, Benjamin

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Acemannan-containing wound dressing gel reduces radiation-induced skin reactions in C3H mice  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To determine (a) whether a wound dressing gel that contains acemannan extracted from aloe leaves affects the severity of radiation-induced acute skin reactions in C3H mice; (b) if so, whether other commercially available gels such as a personal lubricating jelly and a healing ointment have similar effects; and (c) when the wound dressing gel should be applied for maximum effect. Male C3H mice received graded single doses of gamma radiation ranging from 30 to 47.5 Gy to the right leg. In most experiments, the gel was applied daily beginning immediately after irradiation. Dose-response curves were obtained by plotting the percentage of mice that reached or exceeded a given peak skin reaction as a function of dose. Curves were fitted by logit analysis and ED{sub 50} values, and 95% confidence limits were obtained. The average peak skin reactions of the wound dressing gel-treated mice were lower than those of the untreated mice at all radiation doses tested. The ED{sub 50} values for skin reactions of 2.0-2.75 were approximately 7 Gy higher in the wound dressing gel-treated mice. The average peak skin reactions and the ED{sub 50} values for mice treated with personal lubricating jelly or healing ointment were similar to irradiated control values. Reduction in the percentage of mice with skin reactions of 2.5 or more was greatest in the groups that received wound dressing gel for at least 2 weeks beginning immediately after irradiation. There was no effect if gel was applied only before irradiation or beginning 1 week after irradiation. Wound dressing gel, but not personal lubricating jelly or healing ointment, reduces acute radiation-induced skin reactions in C3H mice if applied daily for at least 2 weeks beginning immediately after irradiation. 31 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

Roberts, D.B.; Travis, E.L. [Univ. of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

1995-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

83

Public attitudes toward the use of force and presidential crisis responses  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation explores the role of public opinion in U.S. presidential decisions to employ various alternatives in response to an international crisis. Presidents may choose from a range of force alternatives, including non-force alternatives, troop mobilizations, air strikes or ground assaults. Using the Poliheuristic Theory, I argue that public attitudes toward the use of force in a given crisis play a key role in the decision making process leading to such choices. The direction and intensity of public opinion is driven by a relative value assessment by which the public determines whether the benefits of a use of force are worth the costs. Presidents are aware of this relative value assessment and rule out crisis responses that are likely to violate the public's preferences in the first stage of the decision making process. In the second stage, presidents choose among the remaining alternatives by weighing the relative merits of each with respect to military and international-strategic implications. To test hypotheses following from this theoretical argument, I employ two methodological approaches. The first is statistical analysis. I develop a new data set of presidential crisis response choices and expand an existing data set on U.S. public attitudes toward the use of force, from 1949 to 2001. Using two extant data collections identifying international crises, I conduct Ordered Logit analyses, which produce results that are largely supportive of the hypotheses. The second methodological approach is the case study method. I conduct two detailed case studies of decisions to use force in Bosnia (1995) and Afghanistan (2001). These analyses are also supportive of the theoretical argument. I conclude that presidents are largely responsive to public opinion in the selection of crisis responses.

Brule, David J

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Maximum entropy principal for transportation  

SciTech Connect

In this work we deal with modeling of the transportation phenomenon for use in the transportation planning process and policy-impact studies. The model developed is based on the dependence concept, i.e., the notion that the probability of a trip starting at origin i is dependent on the probability of a trip ending at destination j given that the factors (such as travel time, cost, etc.) which affect travel between origin i and destination j assume some specific values. The derivation of the solution of the model employs the maximum entropy principle combining a priori multinomial distribution with a trip utility concept. This model is utilized to forecast trip distributions under a variety of policy changes and scenarios. The dependence coefficients are obtained from a regression equation where the functional form is derived based on conditional probability and perception of factors from experimental psychology. The dependence coefficients encode all the information that was previously encoded in the form of constraints. In addition, the dependence coefficients encode information that cannot be expressed in the form of constraints for practical reasons, namely, computational tractability. The equivalence between the standard formulation (i.e., objective function with constraints) and the dependence formulation (i.e., without constraints) is demonstrated. The parameters of the dependence-based trip-distribution model are estimated, and the model is also validated using commercial air travel data in the U.S. In addition, policy impact analyses (such as allowance of supersonic flights inside the U.S. and user surcharge at noise-impacted airports) on air travel are performed.

Bilich, F. [University of Brasilia (Brazil); Da Silva, R. [National Research Council (Brazil)

2008-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

85

Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling of Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism After Head-and-Neck Radiation Therapy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Purpose: To determine the dose-response relationship of the thyroid for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head-and-neck radiation therapy, according to 6 normal tissue complication probability models, and to find the best-fit parameters of the models. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five patients treated with primary or postoperative radiation therapy for various cancers in the head-and-neck region were prospectively evaluated. Patient serum samples (tri-iodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], free tri-iodothyronine, and free thyroxine) were measured before and at regular time intervals until 1 year after the completion of radiation therapy. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of the patients' thyroid gland were derived from their computed tomography (CT)-based treatment planning data. Hypothyroidism was defined as increased TSH (subclinical hypothyroidism) or increased TSH in combination with decreased free thyroxine and thyroxine (clinical hypothyroidism). Thyroid DVHs were converted to 2 Gy/fraction equivalent doses using the linear-quadratic formula with {alpha}/{beta} = 3 Gy. The evaluated models included the following: Lyman with the DVH reduced to the equivalent uniform dose (EUD), known as LEUD; Logit-EUD; mean dose; relative seriality; individual critical volume; and population critical volume models. The parameters of the models were obtained by fitting the patients' data using a maximum likelihood analysis method. The goodness of fit of the models was determined by the 2-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Ranking of the models was made according to Akaike's information criterion. Results: Twenty-nine patients (44.6%) experienced hypothyroidism. None of the models was rejected according to the evaluation of the goodness of fit. The mean dose model was ranked as the best model on the basis of its Akaike's information criterion value. The D{sub 50} estimated from the models was approximately 44 Gy. Conclusions: The implemented normal tissue complication probability models showed a parallel architecture for the thyroid. The mean dose model can be used as the best model to describe the dose-response relationship for hypothyroidism complication.

Bakhshandeh, Mohsen [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hashemi, Bijan, E-mail: bhashemi@modares.ac.ir [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mahdavi, Seied Rabi Mehdi [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nikoofar, Alireza; Vasheghani, Maryam [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hafte-Tir Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hafte-Tir Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan [Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

The livestock mandatory price reporting system: Lamb industry perceptions and impact  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The livestock mandatory price reporting system was approved by Congress in July of 1999, signed into law on October 22, 1999, and launched on April 2, 2001. In announcing the implementation of the mandatory price reporting system, the USDA claimed that it would provide information on 80% to 95% of the volume of all cattle, boxed beef, slaughter hogs, sheep and lamb meat, and imported lamb meat transactions. The new law had three explicit objectives: (1) facilitate price discovery, (2) make livestock markets more open, and (3) provide all market participants with market information that can be easily understood (USDA 2001a). This study attempts to determine if the new mandatory price reporting system had achieved these objectives in the perspective of the sheep and lamb industry during the period of the study. Survey questionnaires were developed to determine the perceptions of lamb producers and feeders regarding the effect of the mandatory price reporting system on: (1) the price discovery process, (2) the openness and transparency of lamb buying and selling transactions in the market, and (3) the quantity, accuracy, availability, and timeliness of information needed to make production and marketing decisions. First, the cross-tabulation or descriptive categorical analysis provided the basis for an aggregate evaluation of the perceptions of the survey respondents. Second, a logit regression analysis based on the ordinal regression models was built to consider the relationship between the perceptions of the responding sheep and lamb producers and feeders regarding the new mandatory price reporting system and key characteristics of those respondents (such as age, gender, years of experience, size of operations, etc.). During the period of the study, most respondents believed that the new Mandatory Price Reporting Act has not facilitated or enhanced their power to negotiate prices. Although producers from bigger ranches and feeders from larger capacity ranches reported some improvement in the price discovery process, most respondents believed that packers and feeders were still manipulating the sheep and lambs markets. Neither producers nor feeders perceived any improvements in the availability and openness of private transactions. The mandatory livestock price reports about the sheep and lamb market prices are considered the least useful information source for majority of respondents, as well as the most difficult to understand. The most useful and understandable source is perceived to be the voluntary USDA market reports and other ranchers and feeders.

Poghosyan, Artak Vahagn

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

The Effects of the Political-Legal Environment and Corporate Characteristics on Mergers and Acquisitions in India, 1991-2005  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Emerging markets such as India have witnessed waves of domestic and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. This historical analysis, which consists of two parts, tests central tenets of resource dependence theory. The first part entails an analysis of the transition in public policy governing corporations between 1991 and 2005. The second part tests hypotheses derived from resource dependence theory relating to a firm’s decision to acquire. The analysis explores the factors that explain why firms engage in mergers and acquisitions by examining three specific policy periods (i.e., 1991-1996, 1997-2001 and 2002-2005). The findings from the historical analysis suggest that firms did not merely react to the conditions (i.e., constraints on capital) in their environment by undertaking merger and acquisition activity, but attempted to alter them as resource dependence theory suggests. Findings from the event history logit model also support resource dependence theory. Overall, the study shows that merger and acquisition activity increased during a period of intense deregulation (i.e., 1991-2005) brought about by the adoption of neo-liberal reforms, change to the multilayer subsidiary form, deregulation of the banking and financial sectors’ and reforms in foreign direct investment and equity markets. During this period of uncertainty, firms controlling more resources in terms of earnings, efficiency and number of subsidiaries were more likely to undertake acquisition activity as they have leverage in organization-environment relationships. The effect of number of subsidiaries on acquisition activity was the most consistent across policy periods’. This dissertation is organized in the following manner: Following the introductory chapter, Chapter II is a historical examination of the three policy periods and includes an analysis of the effect of the political-legal environment on mergers and acquisitions between 1991 and 2005. Chapter III reviews the propositions of resource dependence theory that pertain to organizational change and presents research hypotheses related to mergers and acquisitions. Chapter IV describes the data, measurement and methodology employed in the quantitative analysis. Chapter V presents the findings from the quantitative analysis and discusses the results. The concluding chapter (Chapter VI) includes a presentation of the theoretical findings and discussion of the limitations and scope of the study.

Ranganathan, Shilpa

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Home-based work, human capital accumulation and women's labor force participation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation examines the effect of changes in the stock of human capital on the labor force participation decision of women aged 25-54. Without the option of homebased work, some women choose to leave the labor market and stay at home temporarily for family reasons. Working women realize that time out of the labor force could impose penalties on their work careers. This is because during the break, they do not accumulate any new human capital while the existing job skills continuously depreciate. Nowadays, home-based work becomes possible for many jobs because rapid development in personal computers and advances in information and communications technology have reduced employers� cost of offering home-based work arrangements. Working women can resolve the time conflict between demand for paid work and family responsibility by working from home. In a previous study, the home-based work decision depends on the fixed cost of working and potential home production. Women who are disabled, have small children, or live in rural areas are likely to work from home because they have high fixed costs of working and high potential home production. However, none of the existing studies applies the human capital theory of labor supply to the home-based work decision. Using data on the female labor force from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) of housing units from the 2000 U.S. Census, I estimate a nested logit model to examine the effects of expected costs of non-participation, in terms of forgone earnings, forgone human capital accumulation and human capital depreciation, on women�s labor force participation decision. I find that, other things being equal, women aged 25 to 44 who have potentially high human capital accumulation and high human capital depreciation are likely to stay in the labor force. In the case that the value of their home time is so high that they choose to stay at home, they prefer to work for pay at home than to be out of the labor force.

Chutubtim, Piyaluk

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Evaluation of Fish-Injury Mechanisms During Exposure to a High-Velocity Jet  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

As part of the research supported by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Hydropower Turbine System (AHTS) Program, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a study where age-0 and age-1 chinook salmon, as well as several other types of fish, were released into a submerged water jet to quantify injuries caused by shear stresses and turbulence (Neitzel et al. 2000). The fish releases were videotaped. These videotape records were digitized and analyzed using new methods to identify the injury mechanisms and the stresses involved. Visible external injuries sustained by fish in this study generally occurred during the initial contact with the jet and not during the tumbling that occurred after the fish fully entered the turbulent flow. The inertial stresses of tumbling, however, may cause temporary or even permanent vestibular and neurological injuries. Such injuries can result in disorientation and loss of equilibrium, which are life threatening in the ''natural'' environment. Operculum injuries predominated at moderate water jet speeds (12 and 15 m {center_dot} s{sup -1}). At the highest speed, eye, operculum, isthmus, and gill injuries were equally common, and disorientation was most common. Bruising and descaling were relatively rare, especially for age-0 fish. Age-0 fish were less susceptible than the larger age-1 fish to all visible injury types, especially at lower speeds. This is presumably because age-0 fish have less mass and inertia, and therefore sustain smaller forces on exposed organs during acceleration. Alternatively, age-0 fish were substantially more susceptible to behavioral impairments such as disorientation. This may also relate to the smaller mass of the age-0 fish. The less massive age-0 fish sustain larger accelerations and jerks, which may be important sources of the internal injuries to the vestibular and neurological systems. All the dynamic parameters computed from the bulk motion of the fish (velocity, jerk, and force) were positively correlated with injury level, based on the results of this study. Multinomial response model results further suggested that force is most predictive of injury.

Guensch, Greg R.; Mueller, Robert P.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Dauble, Dennis D.

2003-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

90

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year over the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i.e., early spring transition occurred, p < 0.05), (2) improved survival during strong downwelling conditions (Bakun units < -250). Survival decreased during weak downwelling conditions (Bakun units between -180 and -100). Strong to moderately strong correlations between January upwelling and April SST (r = 0.5), June SST (r = 0.6), and the North Pacific Index (NPI) of Aleutian Low strength (r > 0.7) suggest January is a period when important effects originate and play out over ensuing months. Significant inverse trend with survival (p < 0.05) was found for Bakun indices in December, indicating strong downwelling improved survival. Higher-than-average adult return rates were observed for cohorts from brood-years 1982-1983, strong El Nino years. Individual hatcheries were found to have unique age-class strength and age-at-return characteristics.

Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

2001-05-01T23:59:59.000Z