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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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1

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

2

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

4

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

5

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

6

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

7

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical Methods T.S. Nielsen1 , H. Madsen1 , H considered in the ANEMOS project for short-term fore- casting of wind power. The total procedure typically in for prediction of wind power or wind speed, estimating the uncertainty of the wind power forecast, and finally

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

9

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

10

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

12

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by one blank line, and from the paper body by two blank lines. 1. INTRODUCTION Fluctuations of solarSHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette Solar World Congress. This portion of the paper is the abstract. The abstract should not exceed 250

Heinemann, Detlev

13

Short-term Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farm Production Developments of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-term Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farm Production ­ Developments of the Anemos Project J.a.brownsword@rl.ac.uk 6 Overspeed GmBH & Co.KG, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany Email: h.p.waldl@overspeed.de Key words: Offshore to the large dimensions of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

14

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal Center for Applied for this purpose. This paper proposes using the alternative technique of abductive networks, which offers with statistical and empirical models. Using hourly temperature and load data for five years, 24 dedicated models

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

15

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology weather and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6% which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new data preprocessing framework  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper proposes a hybrid load forecasting framework with a new data preprocessing algorithm to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Bayesian neural network (BNN) is used to predict the load. A discrete wavelet transform (DWT) decomposes the load components into proper levels of resolution determined by an entropy-based criterion. Time series and regression analysis are used to select the best set of inputs among the input candidates. A correlation analysis together with a neural network provides an estimation of the predictions for the forecasting outputs. A standardization procedure is proposed to take into account the correlation estimations of the outputs with their associated input series. The preprocessing algorithm uses the input selection, wavelet decomposition and the proposed standardization to provide the most appropriate inputs for BNNs. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is then used to optimize the weighting coefficients of different forecast components and minimize the forecast error. The performance and accuracy of the proposed short-term load forecasting (STLF) method is evaluated using New England load data. Our results show a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy when compared to the existing state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

M. Ghayekhloo; M.B. Menhaj; M. Ghofrani

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Development of short-term forecast quality for new offshore wind farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As the rapid wind power build-out continues, a large number of new wind farms will come online but forecasters and forecasting algorithms have little experience with them. This is a problem for statistical short term forecasts, which must be trained on a long record of historical power production exactly what is missing for a new farm. Focus of the study was to analyse development of the offshore wind power forecast (WPF) quality from beginning of operation up to one year of operational experience. This paper represents a case study using data of the first German offshore wind farm "alpha ventus" and first German commercial offshore wind farm "Baltic1". The work was carried out with measured data from meteorological measurement mast FINO1, measured power from wind farms and numerical weather prediction (NWP) from the German Weather Service (DWD). This study facilitates to decide the length of needed time series and selection of forecast method to get a reliable WPF on a weekly time axis. Weekly development of WPF quality for day-ahead WPF via different models is presented. The models are physical model; physical model extended with a statistical correction (MOS) and artificial neural network (ANN) as a pure statistical model. Selforganizing map (SOM) is investigated for a better understanding of uncertainties of forecast error.

M Kurt; B Lange

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

As thermal inertia is the key factor for the lag of thermoelectric utility regulation, it becomes very important to forecast its short-term load according to running parameters. In this paper, dynamic radial basis function (RBF) neural network...

Dai, W.; Zou, P.; Yan, C.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Using a Self Organizing Map Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting, Analysis of Different Input Data Patterns  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This research uses a Self-Organizing Map neural network model (SOM) as a short-term forecasting method. The objective is to obtain the demand curve of certain hours of the next day. In order to validate the model...

C. Senabre; S. Valero; J. Aparicio

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

22

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using a semantics-based genetic programming framework: The South Italy case  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Accurate and robust short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in electric power operations. This paper proposes a variant of genetic programming, improved by incorporating semantic awareness in algorithm, to address a short term load forecasting problem. The objective is to automatically generate models that could effectively and reliably predict energy consumption. The presented results, obtained considering a particularly interesting case of the South Italy area, show that the proposed approach outperforms state of the art methods. Hence, the proposed approach reveals appropriate for the problem of forecasting electricity consumption. This study, besides providing an important contribution to the energy load forecasting, confirms the suitability of genetic programming improved with semantic methods in addressing complex real-life applications.

Mauro Castelli; Leonardo Vanneschi; Matteo De Felice

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Cloud tracking with optical flow for short-term solar forecasting Philip Wood-Bradley, Jos Zapata, John Pye  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloud tracking with optical flow for short-term solar forecasting Philip Wood-Bradley, José Zapata: John Pye ­ john.pye@anu.edu.au 1. Abstract A method for tracking and predicting cloud movement using apart with a size of 640 by 480 pixels, were processed to determine the time taken for clouds to reach

26

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

27

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Takens embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid LevenbergMarquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using exponential smoothing state space model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We forecast high-resolution solar irradiance time series using an exponential smoothing state space (ESSS) model. To stationarize the irradiance data before applying linear time series models, we propose a novel Fourier trend model and compare the performance with other popular trend models using residual analysis and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) stationarity test. Using the optimized Fourier trend, an ESSS model is implemented to forecast the stationary residual series of datasets from Singapore and Colorado, USA. To compare the performance with other time series models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), linear exponential smoothing (LES), simple exponential smoothing (SES) and random walk (RW) models are tested using the same data. The simulation results show that the ESSS model has generally better performance than other time series forecasting models. To assess the reliability of the forecasting model in real-time applications, a complementary study of the forecasting 95% confidence interval and forecasting horizon of the ESSS model has been conducted.

Zibo Dong; Dazhi Yang; Thomas Reindl; Wilfred M. Walsh

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Seismic Activity of the Earth, the Cosmological Vectorial Potential And Method of a Short-term Earthquakes Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To the foundation of a principally new short-term forecasting method there has been laid down a theory of surrounding us world's creation and of physical vacuum as a result of interaction of byuons - discrete objects. The definition of the byuon contains the cosmological vector-potential A_g - a novel fundamental vector constant. This theory predicts a new anisotropic interaction of nature objects with the physical vacuum. A peculiar "tap" to gain new energy (giving rise to an earthquake) are elementary particles because their masses are proportional to the modulus of some summary potential A_sum that contains potentials of all known fields. The value of A_sum cannot be larger than the modulus of A_g. In accordance with the experimental results a new force associated with A_sum ejects substance from the area of the weakened A_sum along a conical formation with the opening of 100 +- 10 and the axis directed along the vector A_sum. This vector has the following coordinates in the second equatorial coordinate system: right ascension alpha = 293 +- 10, declination delta = 36 +- 10. Nearly 100% probability of an earthquake (earthquakes of 6 points strong and more by the Richter scale) arises when in the process of the earth rotation the zenith vector of a seismically dangerous region and/or the vectorial potential of Earth's magnetic fields are in a certain way oriented relative to the vector A_g. In the work, basic models and standard mechanisms of earthquakes are briefly considered, results of processing of information on the earthquakes in the context of global spatial anisotropy caused by the existence of the vector A_g, are presented, and an analysis of them is given.

Yu. A. Baurov; Yu. A. Baurov; Yu. A. Baurov Jr.; A. A. Spitalnaya; A. A. Abramyan; V. A. Solodovnikov

2008-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

32

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

33

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook - Regional Enhancements Starting with this edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA is introducing regional projections (the scope of which will vary by fuel) of energy prices, consumption, and production. The addition of regional data and forecasts will allow us to examine regional fuel demands and prices, regional fuel inventory trends, the interaction between regional electricity demand shifts, and regional electric generating capacity. This edition of STEO includes regional projections for heating oil, propane, and gasoline prices and natural gas and electricity demand and prices. Over the next 2 months, we will include additional regional

34

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales control measures that could be taken for managing such episodes, European-scale air quality forecasting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

35

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 2013 1 September 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights Monthly average crude oil prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in August 2013, as...

36

Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

Not Available

1993-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

37

August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

August 2012 1 August 2012 1 August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights  EIA projects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month's Outlook. The forecast Brent crude oil spot price falls to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in the third quarter of 2012 to $9 by late 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product (GDP), which increased by 3.0 percent in 2011, grows by 2.8 percent in 2012 and 2.9

38

Simulation of Short-term Wind Speed Forecast Errors using a Multi-variate ARMA(1,1) Time-series Model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The short-term (1 to 48 hours) predictability of wind power production from wind power plants in a power system is critical to the value (more)

Boone, Andrew

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

Not Available

1994-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

40

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(83/3Q) (83/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook iuarterly Projections August 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. 20585 t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- iort- nort- lort- '.ort- ort- Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term Term .-Term -Term xrm Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy -OJ.UUK Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. This forecast assumes there are no disruptions to energy markets arising from the recent unrest in Egypt. After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May and June, about the same as its average over the same two-month period last year.  The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012 and increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in

42

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

NONE

1993-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

43

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

Not Available

1994-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

45

Prediction of wind speed profiles for short-term forecasting in the offshore environment R.J. Barthelmie and G. Giebel  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the forecast wind speed/power output might be anticipated using a directional rather than a constant bias for the calibration phase. A further advantage is that statistical techniques can predict power output directly rather than having to take the additional step of predicting power output from wind speed through the power

46

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. Crude oil prices fell sharply at the onset of war in Iraq, but the initial declines probably overshot levels that we consider to be generally consistent with fundamental factors in the world oil market. Thus, while near-term price averages are likely to be below our previous projections, the baseline outlook for crude oil prices (while generally lower) is not drastically different and includes an average for spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) that is close to $30 per barrel in 2003 (Figure 1). The mix of uncertainties related to key oil production areas has changed since last month, as Venezuelan production has accelerated beyond previous estimates while Nigerian output has been reduced due to internal conflict.

47

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

48

Shortterm solar effects  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...J. L. Culhane and J. C. R. Hunt Short-term solar effects Richard A. Harrison Space Science and Technology...OX11 0QX, UK Short-term transient events in the solar atmosphere, namely solar flares and coronal mass ejections, can have a direct...

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Next Release Date: February 11, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Highlights This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2015. After falling to the lowest monthly average of 2013 in November, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices increased slightly to reach an average of $3.28 per gallon (gal) during December. The annual average regular

50

SLCA/IP Hydro Generation Estimates Month Forecast Generation  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

5/2013 9:06 5/2013 9:06 SLCA/IP Hydro Generation Estimates Month Forecast Generation less losses (kWh) Less Proj. Use (kWh) Net Generation (kWh) SHP Deliveries (kWh) Firming Purchases (kWh) Generation above SHP Level (kWH) 2013-Oct 232,469,911 13,095,926 219,373,985 398,608,181 192,676,761 - 2013-Nov 211,770,451 2,989,074 208,781,376 408,041,232 214,204,345 - 2013-Dec 252,579,425 3,106,608 249,472,817 455,561,848 221,545,708 - 2014-Jan 337,006,077 3,105,116 333,900,962 463,462,717 139,278,887 -

51

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Update (Figure 1) A considerable break in the expected strength of near-term crude oil prices has resulted in a lower forecast for retail gasoline prices this spring. Gasoline prices may well have seen their peak for the year, barring sharp disruptions in crude oil supply or refinery operations. Pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, still high by historical standards but well below the $2.28 anticipated last month. Our projection has been revised downward from the last Outlook as crude oil prices fell from the high $50s per barrel to the low $50s. However, oil prices remain high enough to keep expected

52

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Chart Gallery for February 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Jan...

53

Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 June 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights * After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. * EIA expects the price of regular gasoline will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer driving season (April through September). The annual average regular gasoline retail price is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.49 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of

54

Short Term Energy Outlook ,November 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2002 November 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: During the past 3-4 months, OPEC 10 production has risen more quickly than projected, thus reducing upward pressure on prices. More specifically, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $28.84 in October, about $6.70 per barrel above the year-ago level (Figure 1), the WTI average price for fourth quarter 2002 is now projected to soften to $28.20, which is about $2 per barrel below our fourth-quarter projection from last month. Meanwhile, OECD inventory levels, which are now approaching 5 -year lows, should begin to rise over the next few months as additional supplies reach markets, and return to the middle of their observed range by spring.

55

Univariate time-series forecasting of monthly peak demand of electricity in northern India  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study forecasts the monthly peak demand of electricity in the northern region of India using univariate time-series techniques namely Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) and Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing (ES) for seasonally unadjusted monthly data spanning from April 2000 to February 2007. In-sample forecasting reveals that the MSARIMA model outperforms the ES model in terms of lower root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error criteria. It has been found that ARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 is the best fitted model to explain the monthly peak demand of electricity, which has been used to forecast the monthly peak demand of electricity in northern India, 15 months ahead from February 2007. This will help Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre to make necessary arrangements a priori to meet the future peak demand.

Sajal Ghosh

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. February crude oil prices moved higher than expected pushed by fears of a war in Iraq, low inventories, slow recovery in Venezuelan exports, continued cold weather and sharply higher natural gas prices in the United States. West Texas Intermediate prices averaged close to $36 for the month (Figure 1), a level not seen since October 1990. Oil inventories continued lower through the month resulting in a cumulative reduction in total commercial stocks of 101 million barrels since September 30, 2002, the beginning of the heating season. Total OECD inventories reached an estimated 2,424 million barrels at the end of February, which would be the lowest level since

57

Short-Term Energy Outlook- May 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. The April 24 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised official quotas for members (excluding Iraq) by 0.9 million barrels per day from the previous (suspended) quota to 25.4 million barrels per day. OPEC members also sought tighter compliance with quotas, calling for production cuts of 2 million barrels per day from April levels. We expect these measures to result in an average total OPEC (including Iraq) crude oil production rate of about 26.7 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters. This production level is not significantly different from our base case assumptions in last month's report. Individual OPEC country shares of these output levels will depend upon the speed with which

58

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; Prices are not adjusted for inflation. (b) Average self-service cash price....

59

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015 Supply...

60

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights * Crude oil prices increased during the first three weeks of July 2013 as world oil markets tightened in the face of seasonal increases in world consumption, unexpected supply disruptions, and heightened uncertainty over the security of supply with the renewed unrest in Egypt. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $108 per barrel over the first half of 2013, will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. * The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012 and increased to a monthly average of $21 per barrel in February 2013, closed below $1.50 per barrel on July 19, 2013, and averaged $3 per barrel for the

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights  After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher crude oil prices. The annual average regular gasoline retail price, which was $3.63 per gallon in 2012, is expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and $3.43 per gallon in 2014.  The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price averaged near $110 per barrel for the fifth consecutive month in November. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to average $108 per barrel in December and decline gradually to $104 per barrel in 2014. Projected West Texas

62

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Custom Table Builder Frequency: Annual Monthly Quarterly Select a Year Range: 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 to 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

63

Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2014  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 October November December January February March U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days population-weighted 201112 201213 201314 201415 Source: Short-Term...

64

Short Term Energy Outlook, January 2003  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. The oil market is vulnerable to a number of forces that could cause substantial price volatility over the...

65

Electricity storage for short term power system service (Smart...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Electricity storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Electricity storage for short term power system service...

66

DOE/EIA-0202(88/3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3Q) 3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections July 1988 Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy . oi Lor L- . ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term . Short-Term Ent, Energ,, Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Ene r F- Ou Out, Outlc Outloc Outloo. Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlool Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlool

67

DOE/EIA-0202(87/3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3Q) 3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections July 1987 aergy i . Energy ' Energy Energy Energy i Energy i . Energy . Energy Energy Energy . Energy . Energy Energy Energy Energy i Energy . Energy . Energy Energy Energy Energy . Energy "nergy ; Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-T'- Ent. Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energv Ene1" F- Ou Out, Outlc Outloc.

68

SHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS Hans. For the conventional power park, the power production of the wind turbines presents a fluctuating 'negative load PRODUCTION OF WIND TURBINES For the forecast of the power production of wind turbines two approaches may

Heinemann, Detlev

69

DOE/EIA-0202(88/2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections April 1988 aergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy E nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy '? nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook '"""look Short-Terni Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

70

January 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO)  This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2014.  EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, will fall to an average of $105 per barrel in 2013 and $99 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012, falls to an average of $16 per barrel in 2013 and $8 per barrel in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving Mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.  EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices

71

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) In May, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices oscillated from the low $50s range to $47 and back again, retail gasoline prices declined steadily from about $2.24 per gallon at the beginning of the month to $2.10 on May 30. On June 6, average retail prices were $2.12 per gallon. Pump gasoline prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, similar to last month's projection but still about 26 cents per gallon above the year-ago level. Crude oil prices are expected to remain high enough to keep monthly average gasoline prices above $2.00 per gallon through 2006. The

72

Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Independent Statistics & Analysis" Independent Statistics & Analysis" ,"U.S. Energy Information Administration" ,"Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures, December 2013" ,"U.S. Prices" ,,"West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price" ,,"U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices" ,,"U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices" ,,"Henry Hub Natural Gas Price" ,,"U.S. Natural Gas Prices" ,"World Liquid Fuels" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance" ,,"Estimated Unplanned Crude Oil Production Outages Among OPEC Producers" ,,"Estimated Unplanned Crude Oil Production Disruptions Among non-OPEC Producers" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Consumption" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth"

73

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

74

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

63 and $2.72 per MMBtu during the months through October without the wide variations that occurred over the spring and early summer months (Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002). Prices are expected to be less variable unless unusually hot weather in late summer results in gas being diverted from storage to meet the added cooling demand, or colder-than-normal weather for October results in an unexpected drawdown of storage stocks. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.73 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average close to $3.12 per MMBtu, which is about $0.75 higher than last winter's price but only about 10-15 percent higher than current prices.

75

Short Term Energy Outlook, February 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. World oil markets will likely remain tight through most of 2003, as petroleum inventories and global spare production capacity continue to dwindle amid blasts of cold weather and constrained output from Venezuela. OPEC efforts to increase output to make up for lower Venezuela output has reduced global spare production capacity to only 2 million barrels per day, leaving little room to make up for unexpected supply or demand surprises. Meanwhile, the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price increased by $3.50 to $33 per barrel from December to January (Figure 1). For the year 2003, WTI oil prices are expected to remain over $30 per barrel, even though Venezuelan output appears to be moving toward normal sooner than expected. Also,

76

Berkeley Lab: Nearby Short-Term Accommodations  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Accommodations Accommodations Visitor Information Maps and Directions to the Lab Offsite Shuttle Bus Service Bay Area Mass Transit Information Site Access Parking Permits and Gate Passes UC Berkeley Campus Map Nearby Short-Term Accommodations Guest House Berkeley Lab Guest House - The Berkeley Lab guest house is conveniently located on the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus and features 57 tastefully appointed guest rooms, many with spectacular views of the San Francisco bay, skyline, and City of Berkeley. The guest house is only a few minutes away from the University of California Berkeley Campus and the dynamic Berkeley community itself. It is available to visiting researchers and those conducting business with the University. The Faculty Club * U.C. Campus

77

Short Term Energy Outlook ,October 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2002 October 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: Continued high oil prices are the result of declining OECD commercial oil inventories, worries over a potential clash with Iraq, and OPEC's decision to leave production quotas unchanged at its September meeting. Solid growth in world oil demand this winter (and for 2003 as a whole) is likely to tighten world oil markets and reduce commercial oil inventories. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $29.75 in September, about $3.50 per barrel above the year-ago level and about $10 per barrel above a low point seen last January. Home Heating Costs Outlook: While fuel supplies should remain sufficient under normal weather

78

Short Term Energy Outlook, December 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2002 December 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: Average crude oil prices fell by about $2.50 per barrel between October and November in response to continued high production levels from OPEC 10 countries (Figure 1). However, by the end of November oil prices had risen to end-October levels as concerns over the situations in Iraq and Venezuela pushed prices up. Oil inventories, which are currently in the lower portion of the previous 5-year range, are poised to rise to more comfortable levels soon if OPEC output continues at or above current levels. OPEC is considering cutbacks from current levels. Heating Fuels Update. As in October, weather was m uch colder than normal in November, boosting

79

Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. Third quarter 1997  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document presents the 1997 third quarter short term energy projections. Information is presented for fossil fuels and renewable energy.

NONE

1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to measure various aspects of the California redwood lumber industry. The first sought to explain the economic struc- ture of the short-run market for redwood lumber by preparing short-range forecasts of price, new orders, shipments, produc- tion, stocks... regression coefficients (20) . The second study was directed at developing a short-run forecast of new orders for redwood lumber (21) . Several forecasting techniques were developed, but econometrics, i. e. , multiple regression analysis, provided...

Jackson, Ben Douglas

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

STEO Archives STEO Archives Previous Short-Term Energy Outlook reports are available in the original Adobe Acrobat PDF file with text, charts, and tables, or just the monthly data tables in an Excel file. + EXPAND ALL 2013 STEO Issues Release Date Full PDF Report Excel Data File Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty December 2013 12/10/2013 dec13.pdf dec13_base.xlsx dec13_uncertainty.pdf November 2013 11/13/2013 nov13.pdf nov13_base.xlsx nov13_uncertainty.pdf October 2013 10/08/2013 oct13.pdf oct13_base.xlsx oct13_uncertainty.pdf September 2013 09/10/2013 sep13.pdf sep13_base.xlsx sep13_uncertainty.pdf August 2013 08/06/2013 aug13.pdf aug13_base.xlsx aug13_uncertainty.pdf July 2013 07/09/2013 jul13.pdf jul13_base.xlsx jul13_uncertainty.pdf

82

Price volatility forecasting using artificial neural networks in emerging electricity markets  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting, it may be premature to rely solely on the hourly price forecast. The volatility of electricity price should also be analysed to provide additional insight on price forecasting. This paper proposes a price volatility module to analyse electricity price spikes and study the probability distribution of electricity price. Two methods are used to study the probability distribution of electricity price: the analytical method and the ANN method. Furthermore, ANN method is used to study the impact of line limits, line outages, generator outages, load pattern and bidding strategy on short term price forecasting, in addition to sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which these factors impact price forecasting. Data used in this study are spot electricity prices from California market in the period which includes the crisis months where extreme volatility was observed.

Ahmad F. Al-Ajlouni; Hatim Y. Yamin; Ali Eyadeh

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2005 April 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook (Figure 1) Gasoline prices in 2005 are projected to remain high, at an expected average of $2.28 per gallon for the April to September summer season, 38 cents above last summer. Similar high motor gasoline prices are expected through 2006. Monthly average prices are projected to peak at about $2.35 per gallon in May. Summer diesel fuel prices are expected to average $2.24 per gallon. As in 2004, the primary factor behind these price increases is crude oil costs. WTI, for example, is projected to average 37 cents per gallon higher than last summer. High world oil demand will continue to support crude oil prices and increase competition for

84

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - July 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

July 2005 July 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) Retail regular-grade gasoline prices moved up from about $2.12 per gallon at the beginning of June to $2.33 on July 11. Gasoline pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.25 per gallon, 8 cents per gallon higher than last month's projection and about 35 cents per gallon above the year-ago level. Crude oil prices are expected to remain high enough to keep quarterly average gasoline prices above $2.20 per gallon through 2006. The projected average for retail diesel this summer is $2.33 per gallon, up about 56 cents per gallon from last summer. Nationally, annual average diesel fuel prices

85

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5.57 per MMBtu in January 2004 and $5.40 in February, and then decrease to $4.77 in March as the heating season winds down (Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2004). Spot prices were quite variable in December, with prices at the Henry Hub starting the month at around $5.00 per MMBtu, spiking to roughly $7.00 in the middle of the month, then falling to $5.50 toward the end of the month as warmer-than-normal weather eased demand. Spot prices will likely remain well above $5.00 over the next few months if normal or colder weather prevails, especially with oil prices remaining at relatively high levels. (Oil prices this winter are expected to average $31.35 per barrel (19 cents higher than last winter's average), or 5.41 per MMBtu.) Natural gas storage levels were 8 percent above average as of January 2, which could place downward pressure on prices if warm temperatures and weak heating demand occur later this winter, just as rising prices are possible if the weather becomes colder. Overall in 2004, natural gas wellhead prices are expected to average $4.73 per MMBtu, while spot prices will average nearly $5.00. In 2005, natural gas spot prices are projected to fall to an average of $4.83 per MMBtu under the assumption that domestic and imported supply can continue to grow by about 1-1.5 percent per year.

86

Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; Prices are not adjusted for inflation. (b) Average self-service cash price....

87

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015 Supply...

89

Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015 Supply...

90

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015 Supply...

91

Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2014  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOEEIA-0380; 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015 Supply...

92

DOE/EIA-0202(87/2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections April 1987 . m erm Term t-Term rt-Term jrt-Term ort-Term iort-Term ion-Term ion-Term lort-Term lort-Term ort-Term ort-Term Tt-Term ".-Term -Term Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

93

DOE/EIA-0202(84/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections February 1984 Published: March 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- .iort- iort- lort- Short-Term' Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

94

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 per MMBtu during the last 2 months of 2003 and increase to $4.36 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2003). Prices have fallen in the past few months as mild weather and reduced industrial demand have allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 31, 2003, working gas levels had reached 3,155 Bcf, which is about 3 percent higher than the 5-year average and the first time since October 2002 that stocks exceeded the year-earlier levels. With the improved storage situation, wellhead prices during the current heating season (November through March) are expected to be about 12 percent less than last winter ($4.12 vs. $4.68 per MMBtu). However, prices in the residential sector will likely be about 8 percent higher than last winter, as accumulated natural gas utility costs through 2003 are recovered in higher household delivery charges. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.76 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, wellhead prices are projected to drop by nearly $0.90 per MMBtu, or about 18 percent, to $3.88 per MMBtu as the overall supply situation improves.

95

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

average $2.83 per MMBtu in 2002 compared with about $4.00 last year (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2002). Average wellhead prices have increased by nearly 50 percent from $2.09 per MMBtu in February to an estimated $3.11 per MMBtu in May. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have also increased, rising more than $1.00 per MMBtu since early February. It is atypical to see higher spot gas prices in the cooling season than during the heating season, particularly when working gas in underground storage is at high levels, as it has been for the past several months. As of the end of May, working gas levels were more than 20 percent above the previous 5-year average for that month. Moreover, gas-directed drilling, while down sharply from summer 2001 levels, is still quite strong from a historical perspective. The gas rig count as of May 31 was up 22 percent from the recent low of 591 for the week ending April 5.

96

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4.41 per MMBtu in December 2003, although spot prices are expected to average $5.38 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2003). The average wellhead price is expected to increase moderately to $4.56 during the first three months of 2004. Natural gas prices were lower in November than previously expected but forward price expectations remain sensitive to weather conditions. Prices increased rapidly in futures trading in early December as some cold weather moved into the Eastern United States and reported withdrawals from gas storage were slightly larger than expected. Spot prices above $5 per MMBtu remain likely over the next few months if normal (or colder) weather prevails, especially with oil prices remaining at relatively high levels. Natural gas storage levels are still above average and hold the potential to push prices back down if warm temperatures and weak heating demand materialize later in the winter, just as upward spikes remain a strong possibility if the weather turns cold.

97

Short-Term Load Forecasting This paper discusses the state of the art in short-term load fore-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

spectrum of time intervals. In therange of seconds, when load variationsare small and random, the automatic by a number of generation control functions such as hydro scheduling, unit commitment, hydro-ther- mal present, functions such as fuel, hydro, and maintenance scheduling are performed to ensure that the load

Gross, George

98

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Next Release Date: February 11, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty < Back to list of tables Working correctly. Table 1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Includes lease condensate.

99

DOE/EIA-0202(88/1Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8/1Q) 8/1Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1988 .m erm Term t-Term rt-Term jrt-Term ort-Term ion-Term ion-Term tort-Term jort-Term ion-Term ort-Term ore-Term rt-Term 't-Term -Term Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy "^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook ~">Mook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

100

September 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights  Brent crude oil spot prices have increased at a relatively steady pace from their 2012 low of $89 per barrel on June 25 to their recent high of $117 per barrel on August 23 because of the seasonal tightening of oil markets and continuing unexpected production outages. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall from recent highs over the rest of 2012, averaging $111 per barrel over the last 4 months of 2012 and $103 per barrel in 2013. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices rose by a more modest $17 per barrel between June 25 and August 23, as the WTI discount to Brent crude oil widened from $10 per barrel to $22 per barrel. EIA expects WTI spot prices to average

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

in September and range between $4.37 and $4.58 per MMBtu in the last 3 months of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2003). Spot prices at the Henry Hub have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather in many areas of the country has reduced cooling demand and allowed record storage refill rates. As of September 5, working gas levels were only 5.5 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any disruptions, are on target to reach 3 Tcf by the end of October. However, gas prices remain high-wellhead prices this summer are estimated to be 60 to 70 percent higher than levels last summer. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.84 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, assuming normal weather, wellhead prices are projected to drop by about $1 per MMBtu, or almost 20 percent, to $3.89 per MMBtu, as the overall supply situation improves.

102

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4.20 per MMBtu through January 2003 and then increase to $4.61 in February and $4.23 in March (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released January 8, 2003). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average about $4.10 per MMBtu, or $1.74 more than last winter's levels, while prices to residential customers are expected to average $8.51 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. Natural gas prices were higher than expected in November and December as below-normal temperatures throughout much of the nation increased heating demand, placing upward pressure on gas prices. Spot prices at the Henry Hub climbed above $5.00 per MMBtu in the second week of December and stayed near or above this threshold through the end of the month. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average $2.90 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. In 2003, average wellhead prices are projected to increase about $1.00 per MMBtu over the 2002 level to $3.90 per MMBtu, owing to expectations of higher demand levels than in 2002 and lower storage levels for most of the year compared with 2002 levels.

103

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

this summer and continue at elevated levels through the rest of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2003). Natural gas wellhead prices are expected to average $5.40 per MMBtu in June and remain above $5.13 through December 2003. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have stayed well above $5.00 per MMBtu on a monthly basis since the beginning of the year and have been above $6.00 for the first 10 days of June. The low level of underground storage is the principal reason for these unusually high prices. As of June 6, 2003, working gas stocks were 1,324 Bcf, which is about 35 percent below year-earlier levels and 25 percent below the 5-year average. Natural gas prices are likely to stay high as long as above-normal storage injection demand competes with industrial and power sector demand for gas. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are projected to increase about $2.33 per MMBtu (the largest U.S. annual wellhead price increase on record) over the 2002 level to a record annual high of about $5.20 per MMBtu. For 2004, prices are projected to ease only moderately, as supplies are expected to remain tight.

104

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

range from $2.91 to $3.19 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.53 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002). Natural gas prices climbed sharply in late September as hurricanes Isidore and Lili caused production shut downs in the Gulf of Mexico. However, this price surge is expected to be short-lived, unless the weather in October is unusually cold or if additional storm activity in the Gulf curbs production further. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.76 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average $3.32 per MMBtu, which is about $0.96 higher than last winter's price. Prices to residential customers during the heating season are expected to average $7.55 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter.

105

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

prices will remain relatively high during the storage refill season (April through October) and the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $4.87 per MMBtu in April and May, $4.71 from June through October, and $5.12 for November and December (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2004). Spot prices during the storage refill months will likely average $5.23 per MMBtu, virtually the same as the average price ($5.22) this past heating season. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to average $5.31 per MMBtu, slightly less than the 2003 price ($5.35), while wellhead prices will average about $4.90. In 2005, natural gas spot prices will likely average about $5.25 per MMBtu, under the assumption that domestic supply can continue to grow by about 1 percent per year. Total available supply (including imports and storage inventories) is expected to increase to 22.31 Tcf in 2004 compared with 21.78 Tcf in 2003. Storage stocks at the end of the traditional heating season (March 31) were about 6 percent less than the 5-year average but nearly 50 percent more than year-earlier levels.

106

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

about $3.49 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.76 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 7, 2002). Natural gas prices were higher than expected in October as storms in the Gulf of Mexico in late September temporarily shut in some gas production, causing spot prices at the Henry Hub and elsewhere to rise above $4.00 per million Btu for most of October. In addition, early winter-like temperatures, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, increased demand for natural gas, placing upward pressure on gas prices. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.84 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average $3.56 per MMBtu, which is about $1.20 higher than last winter's price. Prices to residential customers during the heating season are expected to average $7.81 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. In 2003, wellhead prices are projected to average $3.28 per MMBtu, or about $0.44 per MMBtu more than in 2002, owing to expectations of increasing economic growth, little or no change in the annual average crude oil price for 2003, and lower storage levels for most of 2003 compared with 2002 levels.

107

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 per MMBtu during the last 3 months of 2003 and increase to $4.32 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2003). Prices have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather and reduced industrial demand allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 3, 2003, working gas levels were only 1 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any disruptions, are on target to reach 3 Tcf by the end of October. With the improved storage situation, wellhead prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to be about 13 percent less than last winter ($4.17 vs. $4.68 per MMBtu). But prices in the residential sector are projected to be about 9 percent higher than last winter, as the recent decline in wellhead prices is too recent and insufficient to offset the impact of the substantial spring-summer increase in wellhead prices on residential prices. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.75 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, wellhead prices are projected to drop by nearly $0.90 per MMBtu, or about 20 percent, to $3.86 per MMBtu as the overall supply situation improves.

108

March 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights  The weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell in early March for the first time since mid-December. The March 11 average was $3.71 per gallon, down $0.07 per gallon from February 25. EIA expects that lower crude oil prices will result in monthly average regular gasoline prices staying near the February average of $3.67 per gallon over the next few months, with the annual average regular gasoline retail price declining from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.55 per gallon in 2013 and $3.38 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain and the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices

109

Short-term CO? abatement in the European power sector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper focuses on the possibilities for short term abatement in response to a CO2 price through fuel switching in the European power sector. The model E-Simulate is used to simulate the electricity generation in Europe ...

Delarue, Erik D.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

spring, averaging 4.89 per MMBtu in March, 4.92 in April, and 4.84 in May (Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2004). Spot prices averaged 5.90 per MMBtu in January but fell to...

111

DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2QH 2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections May 1984 Published: June 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .iort .iort- iort- iort- '.ort- ort- .m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term i-Term rTerm -Term xrm uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Tern Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

112

DOE/EIA-0202(85/2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook amm Quarterly Projections April 1985 Published: May 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort .iort iort iort lort '.ort ort .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

113

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook EIA Home > Natural Gas > Natural Gas Weekly Update Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook This summary is based on the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook released May 6, 2002. EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will average $2.73 per MMBtu in 2002 compared with about $4.00 per MMBtu last year (Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2002). This projection reflects the sharp increases in spot and near-term futures prices in recent weeks. Average wellhead prices have risen 38 percent from $2.14 per MMBtu in February to an estimated $2.96 in April. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have increased to an even greater extent, rising more than $1.50 per MMBtu since early February. The upward price trend reflects a number of influences, such as unusual weather patterns that have led to increased gas consumption, and tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. Other factors contributing to the recent price surge include the strengthening economy, the increased capacity and planned new capacity of gas-burning power plants, and concerns about the decline in gas-directed drilling.

114

April 2013 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Summer Fuels Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012. The July 2013 New York harbor reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.97 per gallon for the five trading days ending April 4, 2013. Based on the market value of

115

Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5) 5) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995 ii Contacts Contacts The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General questions concerning the content of the report may be directed to W. Calvin Kilgore (202/586-1617),

116

Short-Term Energy Outlook, Annual Supplement 1994  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4) 4) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1994 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1994 ii Contacts Contacts The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General questions concerning the content of the report may be directed to W. Calvin Kilgore (202/586-1617),

117

Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook 1/12/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Summary Short-Term Petroleum. and Natural Gas Outlook WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices Consumer Winter Heating Costs U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook Retail Motor Gasoline Prices* U.S. Propane Total Stocks Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices Current Natural Gas Spot Prices: Well Above the Recent Price Range Natural Gas Spot Prices: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Working Gas in Storage (Percentage Difference fron Previous 5-Year Average)

118

Electricity storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Electricity storage for short term power system service Country Denmark Coordinates 56.26392°, 9.501785° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":56.26392,"lon":9.501785,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

119

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Market Prices and Uncertainty Report This is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Contact: James Preciado (James.Preciado@eia.gov) Full Report Crude Oil Prices: International crude oil benchmarks moved higher in November, showing their first month-over-month increase since August, while U.S. crude oil prices moved higher during the first week of December. The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $110.98 per barrel on December 5, an increase of $5.07 per barrel since its close on November 1 (Figure 1). The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures contract rose $2.77 per barrel compared to November 1, settling at $97.38 per barrel on December 5. Figure 1: Historical crude oil front month futures prices

120

DOE/EIA-0202(87/4Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4Q) 4Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1987 i- rt- jrt ort lort lort lort- iort- lort- ort- ort Tt- " t- . m erm Perm -Term -Term -Term -Term ,-Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term 71 e rrn TT1 "1 Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy "nergy -cry Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook ""'tlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

122

ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM SOLAR RADIATION DATA Gayathri Vijayakumar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and short- term radiation data. 1. INTRODUCTION Analyses to predict long-term performances of solar energy commonly used in these analyses and are readily available; (e.g., hourly data for 239 US locations for 30, TN, Madison, WI, Seattle, WA, Salt Lake City, UT, and Sterling, VA. One year of ISIS data, from

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

123

Short-term production and synoptic influences on atmospheric 7  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-term production and synoptic influences on atmospheric 7 Be concentrations Ilya G. Usoskin,1; published 21 March 2009. [1] Variations of the cosmogenic radionuclide 7 Be in the global atmosphere the variations in the 7 Be concentration in the atmosphere for the period from 1 January to 28 February 2005

124

Management and Conservation Short-Term Impacts of Wind Energy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Management and Conservation Short-Term Impacts of Wind Energy Development on Greater Sage associated with wind energy development on greater sage-grouse populations. We hypothesized that greater sage-grouse nest, brood, and adult survival would decrease with increasing proximity to wind energy infrastructure

Beck, Jeffrey L.

125

The Effect of a Large Resuspension Event in Southern Lake Michigan on the Short-term Cycling of Organic Contaminants  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Effect of a Large Resuspension Event in Southern Lake Michigan on the Short-term Cycling and after a major resuspension event. It was found that major resuspension events result in a large flux of that occurred in the month of March after a series of intense storms induced a large- scale resuspension event

126

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 October 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook October 12, 2005 Release (Next Update: November 8, 2005) Overview Warnings from previous Outlooks about the potential adverse impacts of an active hurricane season on domestic energy supply and prices are unfortunately being reflected in the challenging realities brought about by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The impact of the hurricanes on oil and natural gas production, oil refining, natural gas processing, and pipeline systems have further strained already-tight natural gas and petroleum product markets on the eve of the 2005-2006 heating season (October through March). This combined Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook provides a current view of domestic energy supply and

127

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 1 and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 1 October 2013 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  EIA projects average U.S. household expenditures for natural gas and propane will increase by 13% and 9%, respectively, this winter heating season (October 1 through March 31) compared with last winter. Projected U.S. household expenditures are 2% higher for electricity and 2% lower for heating oil this winter. Although EIA expects average expenditures for households that heat with natural gas will be significantly higher than last winter, spending for gas heat will still be lower than the previous 5-year average (see EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook slideshow).  Brent crude oil spot prices fell from a recent peak of $117 per barrel in early September to

128

Short-term electricity dispatch optimization of Ertan hydropower plant based on data by field tests  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A short-term electricity dispatch optimization program required by the Ertan hydropower plant is developed to maximize hydropower production. Three field tests in various operating heads were carried out in the period of May 2009 to March 2010. Based on data of five test conditions three operating zones for units in various operating heads were proposed. A short-term electricity dispatch optimization model was developed with physical and operational constraints. Unit commitment strategy was put forward for model solution in which unit statuses and output statuses were classified. The strategy aimed at formulating better unit commitment plan according to forecasted load demand ancillary service requirements and initial operating status. The model and the strategy were verified by real cases. The results show that the optimal load distribution among units at every interval can be easily solved by the genetic algorithm based on a fixed unit commitment plan. Schedules are developed with higher average generation efficiency. Units can also be scheduled to operate for a less time within the rough zone and the second feasible zone. The proposed method is already operational for dispatch engineers of the Ertan hydropower plant to determine half-hourly schedules in one day.

Chao Ma; Haijun Wang; Jijian Lian

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Highlights After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher

130

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Special Analysis Special Analysis + EXPAND ALL Feature Articles Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields September 2013 PDF EIA Estimates of Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions September 2013 PDF 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 PDF Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 PDF Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook February 2013 PDF Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter January 2013 PDF Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations September 2012 PDF Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables August 2012 PDF Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast July 2012 PDF 2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico June 2012 PDF

131

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - January 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

January 2005 January 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Consumer prices for heating fuels are relatively unchanged since the December Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously projected, despite continued warm weather in the middle of the heating season. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 30 percent above last winter's levels, with residential fuel oil prices averaging $1.82 per gallon for the October-to-March period. Expenditures for propane-heated households are expected to increase about 20 percent this winter.

133

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2005 February 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Despite some cold weather during the second half of January, expected average consumer prices for heating fuels this heating season are little changed since the January Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously reported. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 32 percent above last winter's levels, with residential fuel oil prices averaging $1.82 per gallon for the October-to-March period. Expenditures for propane-heated households are expected to increase about

134

Conditional Reliability Modeling of Short-term River Basin Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONDITIONAL RELIABILITY MODELING OF SHORT-TERM RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT ASCE Texas Section Spring Meeting 2003 By: A.Andr?s Salazar, Ph.D. Freese and Nichols, Inc. and Ralph A. Wurbs, P.E., Ph.D. Texas A&M University 2 TEXAS WATER AVAILABITY MODEL...-88Year Storage (x 1000 ac-ft) Periods without shortage = 657 out of 672 (97.8%) What is the probability of satisfying demand when reservoir falls below 100,000 ac-ft? 9 CONDITIONAL RELIABILITY Statistical analysis of small sequences. Simulation 1...

Salazar, A.; Wurbs, R. A.

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Evolving an Information Diffusion Model Using a Genetic Algorithm for Monthly River Discharge Time Series Interpolation and Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The identification of the rainfallrunoff relationship is a significant precondition for surfaceatmosphere process research and operational flood forecasting, especially in inadequately monitored basins. Based on an information diffusion model (...

Chengzu Bai; Mei Hong; Dong Wang; Ren Zhang; Longxia Qian

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of the (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Study and implementation of mesoscale weather forecasting models in the wind industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? As the wind industry is developing, it is asking for more reliable short-term wind forecasts to better manage the wind farms operations and electricity (more)

Jourdier, Bndicte

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical energy forecasting Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of PV energy production using... Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer... , Detlev Heinemann Energy and Semiconductor...

139

Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ? 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

Lyons, J.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2 : U.S. Energy Prices 2 : U.S. Energy Prices Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Average for all sulfur contents. b Average self-service cash price. c Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude. - = no data available Notes: Prices are not adjusted for inflation. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and forecasts in italics. Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Release Schedule Release Schedule Release Date. The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) scheduling procedure calls for the release of the STEO on the first Tuesday following the first Thursday of each month. For example, since the first Thursday of July 2009 was July 2, under this plan, the July edition was released on Tuesday, July 7. If a Federal holiday falls on the Monday before the normal release date the release is delayed until Wednesday. There may be the occasional unusual delay in the release because of scheduling around other events, such as the annual EIA Conference in April 2009. Barring holidays or unusual rescheduling, the STEO will normally appear between the 6th and the 12th of the month. Any unforeseen scheduling adjustments will be posted here and/or on the STEO homepage.

142

Microsoft Word - Alcoa_short-term_amendments_CX.docx  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

2 2 REPLY TO ATTN OF: KEC-4 SUBJECT: Environmental Clearance Memorandum Mark Miller Account Executive, Long-term Sales and Purchases - PT-5 Proposed Action: Short-term Additional Amendments to the Alcoa Power Sales Agreement Categorical Exclusion Applied (from Subpart D, 10 C.F.R. Part 1021): A2 - Clarifying or administrative contract actions Location: Portland, OR and Ferndale, WA Proposed by: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Description of the Proposed Action: BPA proposes to execute one or more additional amendments to its existing 2009 Power Sales Agreement (Agreement) with Alcoa, Inc. (Alcoa) to further extend the Agreement's Initial Period provisions. The current date for expiration of these provisions under the most recent amendment (Amendment Number 2) is July 31, 2012.

143

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 1 April 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook April 11, 2006 Release Contents Overview Global Petroleum Markets U.S. Petroleum Markets Motor Gasoline Diesel Fuel Natural Gas Markets Electricity Markets Coal Markets Overview Continued steady world oil demand growth, combined with only modest increases in world spare oil production capacity and the continuing risks of geopolitical instability, are expected to keep crude oil prices high through 2006. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $65 per barrel in 2006 and $61 in 2007 (Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price). Retail regular gasoline prices are projected to average $2.50 per gallon in 2006 and $2.40 in

144

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Short-term improvements in public health from global-climate policies on fossil-fuel combustion: an interim report  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

SummaryBackground Most public-health assessments of climate-control policies have focused on long-term impacts of global change. Our interdisciplinary working group assesses likely short-term impacts on public health. Methods We combined models of energy consumption, carbon emissions, and associated atmospheric particulate-matter (PM) concentration under two different forecasts: business-as-usual (BAU); and a hypothetical climate-policy scenario, where developed and developing countries undertake significant reductions in carbon emissions. Findings We predict that by 2020, 700?000 avoidable deaths (90% CI 3850001034000) will occur annually as a result of additional PM exposure under the BAU forecasts when compared with the climate-policy scenario. From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative impact on public health related to the difference in PM exposure could total 8 million deaths globally (90% CI 4.411.9 million). In the USA alone, the avoidable number of annual deaths from PM exposure in 2020 (without climate-change-control policy) would equal in magnitude deaths associated with human immunodeficiency diseases or all liver diseases in 1995. Interpretation The mortality estimates are indicative of the magnitude of the likely health benefits of the climate-policy scenario examined and are not precise predictions of avoidable death. While characterised by considerable uncertainty, the short-term public-health impacts of reduced PM exposures associated with greenhouse-gas reductions are likely to be substantial even under the most conservative set of assumptions.

Devra Lee Davis

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Short?term non?poissonian temporal clustering of magnitude 4+ earthquakes in california and western nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The M4+ mainshocks throughout California and western Nevada from 1932 to 2004 show non?Poissonian temporal clustering over time periods of a few days. The short?term clustering is independent of the distance between earthquakeepicenters. It implies that some of the M4+ mainshocks are mutually triggered by some unknown regional cause. In southern California more short?term clustering is found for M4+ earthquakes east of the San Andreas Fault. In central California most M4+ mainshocks at Long Valley CA have occurred within 10 days of M4+ mainshocks around the San Francisco Bay area. The clustering implies predictable behavior in the occurrences of M4+ mainshocks. We propose a hidden Markov model (HMM) as an earthquake forecast method for the region. Our HMM assumes a hidden sequence of interevent time states associated with observations of earthquake occurrences (times locations and magnitudes) with transition probabilities between states determined with the Baum?Welch algorithm and the past earthquake data. Given the seismic history up to the latest earthquake the probability of another earthquake within the next few days is estimated. Tests of our HMM with two three and four temporal states show some modest success. We plan to extend the model to forecast magnitude and spatial parameters.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

December 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO)  EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price will average $89 per barrel. The Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $104 per barrel and $88 per barrel, respectively, in 2013. The projected WTI discount to Brent crude oil, which averaged $23 per barrel in November 2012, falls to an average of $11 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2013. This forecast rests on the assumption that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent in 2013, while world

148

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Now that the heating season has ended, natural gas wellhead prices have fallen from the exceptionally high levels seen in February and early March. Nevertheless, they still remain historically and unseasonably high, hovering around $5.00 per MMBtu. EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will remain above $5.00 per MMBtu in April and then decrease to $4.36 in May and $4.26 in June (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2003). Wellhead prices for the 2002-2003 heating season (November through March) averaged $4.44 per MMBtu, or $2.08 more than last winter's price. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are projected to increase about $1.53 per MMBtu over the 2002 level to $4.40 per MMBtu. This projection is based on the expectation of lower volumes of natural gas in underground storage compared with last year and continued increases in demand over 2002 levels. Cold temperatures this past winter led to a record drawdown of storage stocks. By the end of March, estimated working gas stocks were 676 Bcf (prior estimates were 696 Bcf), which is the lowest end-of-March level in EIA records and 44 percent below the previous 5-year average. In 2004, continued tightness of domestic natural gas supply and high demand levels are expected to keep the average wellhead price near the 2003 level.

149

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

the rest of the winter and the first part of spring, with prices averaging $5.19 per MMBtu through March and $4.58 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004). Wellhead prices for the current heating season (November 2003 through March 2004) are expected to average $4.99 per MMBtu, or about 7 percent higher than last winter's level. Spot prices at the Henry Hub averaged $5.90 per MMBtu in January as cold temperatures (6 percent colder than normal nationally and 19 percent colder than normal in the Northeast) kept natural gas prices and heating demand high. Despite the severe weather, natural gas storage stocks were 3 percent above average as of January 30 and spot prices in early February have moved down somewhat. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to average about $4.90 per MMBtu and wellhead prices are expected to average $4.63 per MMBtu, declining moderately from the 2003 levels. In 2005, natural gas spot prices are projected to average about $5.00 per MMBtu, under the assumption that domestic and imported supply can continue to grow by about 1 percent per year.

150

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

151

SULFURIC ACID REMOVAL PROCESS EVALUATION: SHORT-TERM RESULTS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this project is to demonstrate the use of alkaline reagents injected into the furnace of coal-fired boilers as a means of controlling sulfuric acid emissions. Sulfuric acid controls are becoming of increasing interest to utilities with coal-fired units for a number of reasons. Sulfuric acid is a Toxic Release Inventory species, a precursor to acid aerosol/condensable emissions, and can cause a variety of plant operation problems such as air heater plugging and fouling, back-end corrosion, and plume opacity. These issues will likely be exacerbated with the retrofit of SCR for NOX control on some coal-fired plants, as SCR catalysts are known to further oxidize a portion of the flue gas SO{sub 2} to SO{sub 3}. The project is testing the effectiveness of furnace injection of four different calcium- and/or magnesium-based alkaline sorbents on full-scale utility boilers. These reagents have been tested during four one- to two-week tests conducted on two FirstEnergy Bruce Mansfield Plant units. One of the sorbents tested was a magnesium hydroxide slurry produced from a wet flue gas desulfurization system waste stream, from a system that employs a Thiosorbic{reg_sign} Lime scrubbing process. The other three sorbents are available commercially and include dolomite, pressure-hydrated dolomitic lime, and commercial magnesium hydroxide. The dolomite reagent was injected as a dry powder through out-of-service burners, while the other three reagents were injected as slurries through air-atomizing nozzles into the front wall of upper furnace, either across from the nose of the furnace or across from the pendant superheater tubes. After completing the four one- to two-week tests, the most promising sorbents were selected for longer-term (approximately 25-day) full-scale tests. The longer-term tests are being conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the sorbents tested over extended operation and to determine balance-of-plant impacts. This reports presents the results of the short-term tests; the long-term test results will be reported in a later document. The short-term test results showed that three of the four reagents tested, dolomite powder, commercial magnesium hydroxide slurry, and byproduct magnesium hydroxide slurry, were able to achieve 90% or greater removal of sulfuric acid compared to baseline levels. The molar ratio of alkali to flue gas sulfuric acid content (under baseline conditions) required to achieve 90% sulfuric acid removal was lowest for the byproduct magnesium hydroxide slurry. However, this result may be confounded because this was the only one of the three slurries tested with injection near the top of the furnace across from the pendant superheater platens. Injection at the higher level was demonstrated to be advantageous for this reagent over injection lower in the furnace, where the other slurries were tested.

Gary M. Blythe; Richard McMillan

2002-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

152

SULFURIC ACID REMOVAL PROCESS EVALUATION: SHORT-TERM RESULTS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this project is to demonstrate the use of alkaline reagents injected into the furnace of coal-fired boilers as a means of controlling sulfuric acid emissions. Sulfuric acid controls are becoming of increasing interest to utilities with coal-fired units for a number of reasons. Sulfuric acid is a Toxic Release Inventory species, a precursor to acid aerosol/condensable emissions, and can cause a variety of plant operation problems such as air heater plugging and fouling, back-end corrosion, and plume opacity. These issues will likely be exacerbated with the retrofit of SCR for NO{sub x} control on some coal-fired plants, as SCR catalysts are known to further oxidize a portion of the flue gas SO{sub 2} to SO{sub 3}. The project is testing the effectiveness of furnace injection of four different calcium- and/or magnesium-based alkaline sorbents on full-scale utility boilers. These reagents have been tested during four one- to two-week tests conducted on two First Energy Bruce Mansfield Plant units. One of the sorbents tested was a magnesium hydroxide slurry produced from a wet flue gas desulfurization system waste stream, from a system that employs a Thiosorbic{reg_sign} Lime scrubbing process. The other three sorbents are available commercially and include dolomite, pressure-hydrated dolomitic lime, and commercial magnesium hydroxide. The dolomite reagent was injected as a dry powder through out-of-service burners, while the other three reagents were injected as slurries through air-atomizing nozzles into the front wall of upper furnace, either across from the nose of the furnace or across from the pendant superheater tubes. After completing the four one- to two-week tests, the most promising sorbents were selected for longer-term (approximately 25-day) full-scale tests. The longer-term tests are being conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the sorbents tested over extended operation and to determine balance-of-plant impacts. This reports presents the results of the short-term tests; the long-term test results will be reported in a later document. The short-term test results showed that three of the four reagents tested, dolomite powder, commercial magnesium hydroxide slurry, and byproduct magnesium hydroxide slurry, were able to achieve 90% or greater removal of sulfuric acid compared to baseline levels. The molar ratio of alkali to flue gas sulfuric acid content (under baseline conditions) required to achieve 90% sulfuric acid removal was lowest for the byproduct magnesium hydroxide slurry. However, this result may be confounded because this was the only one of the three slurries tested with injection near the top of the furnace across from the pendant superheater platens. Injection at the higher level was demonstrated to be advantageous for this reagent over injection lower in the furnace, where the other slurries were tested.

Gary M. Blythe; Richard McMillan

2002-02-04T23:59:59.000Z

153

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

in the summer months (June-August) and 6.00 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, while composite spot prices will likely stay well above 6.00 through December. Spot prices averaged...

154

Safeguards Education and Training: Short Term Supply vs. Demand  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Much has been written and discussed in the past several years about the effect of the aging nuclear workforce on the sustainability of the U.S. safeguards and security infrastructure. This paper discusses the 10-15 year supply and demand forecast for nuclear material control and accounting specialists. The demand side of the review includes control and accounting of the materials at U.S. DOE and NRC facilities, and the federal oversight of those MC&A programs. The cadre of experts referred to as 'MC&A Specialists' available to meet the demand goes beyond domestic MC&A to include international programs, regulatory and inspection support, and so on.

Mathews, Carrie E.; Crawford, Cary E.

2004-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

155

VPR RESEARCH BRIDGE PROGRAM Objective: Toprovide short-term,limitedfinancial support whenexternallyfundedresearchprogramshave  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

VPR RESEARCH BRIDGE PROGRAM Objective: Toprovide short-term,limitedfinancial support following: pastrecord of external funding,effortsunderwaytosecure external fundingbeyondthe bridge

Kihara, Daisuke

156

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Weather or Other Short-Term Closing Policy 6.15  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Weather or Other Short-Term Closing Policy 6.15 Office of Human Resources Applies to: Faculty, staff, graduate associates, student employees, and students 1 1 This policy does not apply to Health State University ­ Office of Human Resources Page 1 of 1 Policy 6.15 Weather or Other Short-Term Closing

Howat, Ian M.

159

Short-term effects of salinity declines on juvenile hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

be compounded or mitigated by other factors, such as other environmental conditions or handling effects. #12Short-term effects of salinity declines on juvenile hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria. Final report to Florida Sea Grant, for a Program Development Award Project title: Short-term effects of rapid salinity

Florida, University of

160

Short-Term Audio-Visual Atoms for Generic Video Concept Classification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Audio-Visual Atoms for Generic Video Concept Classification Wei Jiang1 Courtenay Cotton1 the challenging issue of joint audio-visual analysis of generic videos targeting at semantic concept de- tection. We propose to extract a novel representation, the Short-term Audio-Visual Atom (S-AVA), for improved

Ellis, Dan

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Modelling and forecasting Oman crude oil prices using Box-Jenkins techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Box-Jenkins' Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling approach has been applied for the time series analysis of monthly average prices of Oman crude oil taken over a period of 10 years. Several seasonal and non-seasonal ARIMA models were identified. These models were then estimated and compared for their adequacy using the significance of the parameter estimates, mean square errors and Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic. Based on these criterion a multiplicative seasonal model of the form ARIMA (1,1,5)x(1,1,1) was recommended for short term forecasting.

M.I. Ahmad

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas prices will remain relatively high for the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $5.41 per MMBtu through the end of the storage refill season (October 31) and $5.59 in November and December. Spot prices (composites for producing-area hubs) averaged about $5.30 per MMBtu in the first quarter of this year but are currently near $6.00. Barring cooler-than-normal weather this summer, the likelihood appears small that spot prices will fall significantly below $5.65 per MMBtu for the rest of 2004. Overall in 2004, spot prices will likely average $5.62 per MMBtu and wellhead prices will average $5.33. In 2005, spot prices are expected to increase to $5.90 per MMBtu. As in other recent projections, this outcome depends on modest growth in domestic production and total available supply (including imports and storage inventories) in both 2004 and 2005. Underground storage facilities reported net injections of 199 Bcf for April, well above the previous 5-year average of 139 Bcf. At the end of April, storage stocks were only about 2 percent below the 5-year average level and 37 percent higher than last year at this time based on monthly survey data.

163

Microsoft PowerPoint - Arseneau_EIA_ShortTermDriversofEnergyPrices.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

SHORT-TERM ENERGY PRICES: SHORT-TERM ENERGY PRICES: WHAT DRIVERS MATTER MOST? DAVID M. ARSENEAU FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD U.S. Energy Information Administration & Johns Hopkins University - SAIS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD Johns Hopkins University SAIS 2010 Energy Conference Washington, D.C., U.S.A. A il 6 2010 April 6, 2010 BROAD COMMODITY PRICES SINCE 2000 Short-term Energy Prices: What Drivers Matters Most? BROAD COMMODITY PRICES SINCE 2000 April 6, 2010 Seminar: 2010 EIA/SAIS Energy Conference 2 A (GROSSLY OVERSIMPLIFIED) FRAMEWORK Short-term Energy Prices: What Drivers Matters Most? A (GROSSLY OVERSIMPLIFIED) FRAMEWORK ...  Two candidate explanations:  "Fundamentals"  Fundamentals  Trend price movements appear broadly interpretable through lens of fundamental market developments...

164

Short-Term Effects of Air Pollution on Wheeze in Asthmatic Children in Fresno, California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of winter air pollution on respira- tory health of asthmaticChildrens Health Short-Term Effects of Air Pollution onEnvironmental Health Perspectives Effects of air pollution

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Spatiotemporal Model for Short-Term Predictions of Air Pollution Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Recently, the interest of many environmental agencies is on short-term air pollution predictions referred at high spatial resolution. This ... be informed with visual and easy access to air-quality assessment. We...

Francesca Bruno; Lucia Paci

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Short-term irradiance variability: Preliminary estimation of station pair correlation as a function of distance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Review Short-term irradiance variability: Preliminary estimation of station pair correlation, 2010; SMUD, 2010; IEA, 2010). In a recently published article, Hoff and Perez (2010a,b) advanced

167

Daily prediction of short-term trends of crude oil prices using neural networks exploiting multimarket dynamics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper documents a systematic investigation on the predictability of short-term trends of crude oil prices on a daily basis. In stark contrast with longer-term predictions of crude oil prices, short-term pred...

Heping Pan; Imad Haidar; Siddhivinayak Kulkarni

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 Authorization) < GRR Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home Roadmap Help List of Sections Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 Authorization) 06MTFShortTermWaterQualityStandardForTurbidity318Authorization.pdf Click to View Fullscreen Contact Agencies Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation Montana Department of Environmental Quality Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Regulations & Policies MCA 75-5-318 Triggers None specified Click "Edit With Form" above to add content 06MTFShortTermWaterQualityStandardForTurbidity318Authorization.pdf Error creating thumbnail: Page number not in range.

169

Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Wind speed measurements from one year from meteorological towers and wind turbines at heights between 20 and 250 m for various European sites are analyzed and are compared with operational short-term forecasts of the global ECMWF model. The ...

Susanne Drechsel; Georg J. Mayr; Jakob W. Messner; Reto Stauffer

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Short-term effects of Gamma Ray Bursts on oceanic photosynthesis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We continue our previous work on the potential short-term influence of a gamma ray bursts on Earth's biosphere, focusing on the only important short-term effect on life: the ultraviolet flash which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the {\\gamma} radiation through the atmosphere. Thus, in this work we calculate the ultraviolet irradiances penetrating the first hundred meters of the water column, for Jerlov's ocean water types I, II and III. Then we estimate the UV flash potential for photosynthesis inhibition, showing that it can be important in a considerable part of the water column with light enough for photosynthesis to be done, the so called photic zone.

Penate, Liuba; Cardenas, Rolando; Agusti, Susana

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Ducklings Exhibit Substantial Energy-Saving Mechanisms as a Response to Short-Term Food Shortage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

90 Ducklings Exhibit Substantial Energy-Saving Mechanisms as a Response to Short-Term Food Shortage platyrhyncos domesticus) exhibited any energy-saving mechanisms that could lessen the detrimental effects ex- hibited substantial energy-saving mechanisms as a response to diet restriction. After 5 d of diet

Bech, Claus

172

Longitudinal Analysis of Short term Bronchiolitis Air Pollution Association using Semi Parametric Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pollution, semi parametric models. 1.1 Introduction Time-series studies of air pollution and health was an overestimation of the eect of air pollution on health. More recently, in a issue of Epidemiology, Ramsay et al1 Longitudinal Analysis of Short term Bronchiolitis Air Pollution Association using Semi Parametric

Mesbah, Mounir

173

Ethical Considerations for Short-term Experiences by Trainees in Global Health  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-constrained health care set- tings, trainees from resource-replete environments may have inflated ideas aboutCOMMENTARY Ethical Considerations for Short-term Experiences by Trainees in Global Health John A. Crump, MB, ChB, DTM&H Jeremy Sugarman, MD, MPH, MA A CADEMIC GLOBAL HEALTH PROGRAMS ARE BURGEON- ing.1

Tipple, Brett

174

Managing Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the price of which follows supply and demand imbalances. Electricity prices, which were tightly controlled that occurred in the Midwest during the week of June 22, 1998, when the day-ahead electricity price departedManaging Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach Samer Takriti

Ahmed, Shabbir

175

Business-Driven Short-Term Management of a Hybrid IT Infrastructure1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Business-Driven Short-Term Management of a Hybrid IT Infrastructure1 Paulo Ditarso Maciel Jr Abstract We consider the problem of managing a hybrid computing infrastructure whose processing elements and associated quality of service guarantees. The applications that run in this hybrid infrastructure are char

Cirne, Walfredo

176

Interference of a short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide with allergic airways responses to allergenic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Interference of a short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide with allergic airways responses, 4 (2002) 251-260" DOI : 10.1080/096293502900000113 #12;Abstract Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a common and may depend to concentration of pollutant. Keywords: Mouse model of asthma; nitrogen dioxide; air

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

177

Primal-Dual Interior Point Method Applied to the Short Term Hydroelectric Scheduling Including a  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Primal-Dual Interior Point Method Applied to the Short Term Hydroelectric Scheduling Including that minimizes losses in the transmission and costs in the generation of a hydroelectric power system, formulated such perturbing parameter. Keywords-- Hydroelectric power system, Network flow, Predispatch, Primal-dual interior

Oliveira, Aurélio R. L.

178

Short-Term Throughput Maximization for Battery Limited Energy Harvesting Nodes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for energy recharge. Under the assumption of an increasing concave power-rate relationship, the short completion time of a given amount of data were found for an energy harvesting node under the assumptionShort-Term Throughput Maximization for Battery Limited Energy Harvesting Nodes Kaya Tutuncuoglu

Yener, Aylin

179

PRIMARY RESEARCH PAPER Short-term responses of decomposers to flow restoration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

flow. Our results indicate that some aquatic ecosystem variables can return to a more natural statePRIMARY RESEARCH PAPER Short-term responses of decomposers to flow restoration in Fossil Creek projects, although numerous, rarely include complete sets of data before and after restoration

LeRoy, Carri J.

180

Status and evaluation of hybrid electric vehicle batteries for short term applications. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this task is to compile information regarding batteries which could be use for electric cars or hybrid vehicles in the short term. More specifically, this study applies lead-acid batteries and nickel-cadmium battery technologies which are more developed than the advanced batteries which are presently being investigated under USABC contracts and therefore more accessible in production efficiency and economies of scale. Moreover, the development of these batteries has advanced the state-of-the-art not only in terms of performance and energy density but also in cost reduction. The survey of lead-acid battery development took the biggest part of the effort, since they are considered more apt to be used in the short-term. Companies pursuing the advancement of lead-acid batteries were not necessarily the major automobile battery manufacturers. Innovation is found more in small or new companies. Other battery systems for short-term are discussed in the last part of this report. We will review the various technologies investigated, their status and prognosis for success in the short term.

Himy, A. [Westinghouse Electric Co., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Machinery Technology Div.

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Appendix D Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply 9302 Appendix D Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply As a result of the new regulations issued by the U.S. Estimating Components of the Distillate Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for ultra-low- Blend Pool sulfur diesel fuel (ULSD) the U.S. refining industry faces two major challenges: to meet the more stringent specifi- The initial step of the analysis was to analyze the poten- cations for diesel product, and to keep up with demand tial economics of producing ULSD for each refinery. by producing more diesel product from feedstocks of Using input and output data submitted to the Energy lower quality. Some refineries in the United States and Information Administration (E1A) by refiners, the cur-

182

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior...

Michaels, Patrick J; Christy, John R; Herman, Chad S; Liljegren, Lucia M; Annan, James D

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Impact of short-term storage on frequency response under increasing wind penetration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, the effort is to study the impact of short-term storage technology in stabilizing the frequency response under increasing wind penetration. The frequency response is studied using Automatic Generation Control (AGC) module, and is quantified in terms of Control Performance Standards (CPS). The single area IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) was chosen, and battery storage was integrated within the AGC. The battery proved to reduce the frequency deviations and provide good CPS scores with higher penetrations of wind. The results also discuss the ability of the short term storage to benefit the system by reducing the hourly regulation deployment and the cycling undergone by conventional units, by dint of their fast response; and sheds light on the economic implications of their benefits.

Venkat Krishnan; Trishna Das; James D. McCalley

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Session 4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?" 4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?" Speakers: Howard K. Gruenspecht, EIA David M. Arseneau, Federal Reserve Board Guy F. Caruso, Center for Strategic and International Studies Christopher Ellsworth, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Edward L. Morse, Credit Suisse Securities [Note: Recorders did not pick up introduction of panel (see biographies for details on the panelists) or introduction of session.] Howard: And this presentation could not be more timely, given current developments in oil and natural gas markets and the start of the traditional summer driving season. In discussions of rapidly rising oil prices leading to a peak of $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008, the factors that were traditionally the focus of EIA's

185

Record of Decision for BPA Short-Term Marketing and Operating Arrangements (1/31/96)  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

0 0 Federal Register / Vol. 61, No. 21 / Wednesday, January 31, 1996 / Notices Bonneville Power Administration Notice of Availability of Record of Decision for Short-Term Marketing and Operating Arrangements AGENCY: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Department of Energy (DOE). ACTION: Notice of Availability of Record of Decision (ROD). SUMMARY: BPA has decided to enter into short-term marketing and operational arrangements in order to participate continuously in the open electric power market. These arrangements would enable BPA to achieve the best reliability and expected economic outcome, as well as to best meet its environmental responsibilities, given diverse market conditions. This decision would support power cost control, enhance BPA competitiveness, and provide public benefits. The

186

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

and forecast data STEO Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer In beta testing: STEO Data browser Related Tables Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF Table...

187

Integrating short-term demand response into long-term investment planning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

discussions of the model in [79] and [80], and [81] for an application. 6 Developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) of the United States of America [82]. EPRG No 1113 5 Planning (IRP) was developed.7... Integrating short-term demand response into long-term investment planning Cedric De Jonghe, Benjamin F. Hobbs and Ronnie Belmans 20 March 2011 CWPE 1132 & EPRG 1113 www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk EP RG W...

De Jonghe, Cedric; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Belmans, Ronnie

2011-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

188

DSM savings verification through short-term pre-and-post energy monitoring at 90 facilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper summarizes the DSM impact results obtained from short-term energy measurements performed at sites monitored as part of the Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural (CIA) Retrofit Incentives Evaluation Program sponsored by the Pacific Gas & Electric Company. The DSM measures include those typically found in these sectors; i.e., lighting, motors, irrigation pumps and HVAC modifications. The most important findings from the site measurements are the estimated annual energy and demand savings. Although there may be large differences of projected energy savings for individual sites, when viewed in the aggregate the total energy savings for the program were found to be fairly comparable to engineering estimates. This paper describes the lessons learned from attempting in-situ impact evaluations of DSM savings under both direct and custom rebate approaches. Impact parameters of interest include savings under both direct and custom rebate approaches. Impact parameters of interest include gross first-year savings and load shape impacts. The major method discussed in this paper is short-term before/after field monitoring of affected end-uses; however, the complete impact evaluation method also includes a billing analysis component and a hybrid statistical/engineering model component which relies, in part, on the short-term end-use data.

Misuriello, H.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

189

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at multiple sites. Given the unique spatial and temporal correlation of PV generation, an optimal data-driven forecast model for short-term PV power is proposed. This model leverages both spatial and temporal correlations among neighboring solar sites...

Yang, Chen

2013-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

191

Pages 41-52 Short-term effects of small dam removal on a freshwater mussel assemblage.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with appropriate planning, timing, and removal techniques, but additional monitoring is warrantePages 41-52 Short-term effects of small dam removal on a freshwater mussel assemblage. Ryan J 1053-637X EDITORIAL REVIEW BOARD #12;SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SMALL DAM REMOVAL ON A FRESHWATER MUSSEL

Kwak, Thomas J.

192

ORIGINAL PAPER Short-term effect of tillage intensity on N2O and CO2 emissions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ORIGINAL PAPER Short-term effect of tillage intensity on N2O and CO2 emissions Pascal Boeckx negative to positive. We studied the short-term effect of tillage intensity on N2O and CO2 emissions. We site, an intermediately aerated Luvisol in Belgium, were similar. Nitrous oxide and CO2 emissions were

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

193

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

194

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Title Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5330E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Bode, Josh, Michael J. Sullivan, and Joseph H. Eto Pagination 120 Date Published 01/2012 Publisher LBNL City Berkeley Keywords consortium for electric reliability technology solutions (certs), electricity markets and policy group, energy analysis and environmental impacts department Abstract Several recent demonstrations and pilots have shown that air conditioner (AC) electric loads can be controlled during the summer cooling season to provide ancillary services and improve the stability and reliability of the electricity grid. A key issue for integration of air conditioner load control into grid operations is how to accurately measure shorter-term (e.g., ten's of minutes to a couple of hours) demand reductions from AC load curtailments for operations and settlement. This report presents a framework for assessing the accuracy of shorter-term AC load control demand reduction measurements. It also compares the accuracy of various alternatives for measuring AC reductions - including methods that rely on regression analysis, load matching and control groups - using feeder data, household data and AC end-use data. A practical approach is recommended for settlement that relies on set of tables, updated annually, with pre-calculated load reduction estimates. The tables allow users to look up the demand reduction per device based on the daily maximum temperature, geographic region and hour of day and simplify the settlement process.

195

Production of hybrid poplar under short-term, intensive culture in Western Colorado  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An irrigated study was conducted at the Western Colorado Research Center at Fruita for 6 years to evaluate eight hybrid poplar clones under short-term, intensive culture. The eight clones included in the study were Populus nigra x P. maximowiczii (NM6), P. trichocarpa x P. deltoides (52225, OP367), and P. deltoides x P. nigra (Norway, Noreaster, Raverdaus, 14274, 14272). Data were collected for growth, aerial biomass yield, dry matter partitioning, carbon sequestration, and insect and disease infestation. OP367 and 52225 consistently had larger tree diameters than other hybrids for each of the 6 years. Averaged across clones, yield was 58.4Mgha?1. OP367 had the highest yield at 72.2Mgha?1 and 14274 had the lowest yield at 41.0Mgha?1. The yield of OP367 was 1.8 times greater than that of 14274. Carbon yield over the 6 years of testing was highest for OP367 at 33.4MgCha?1 and lowest for 14274 at 18.8MgCha?1. Of the eight clones tested, OP367 was the most adapted and productive clone in this short-term, intensive culture system in the arid environment of the Grand Valley of western Colorado as evidenced by its productive growth, yield, insect resistance, winterhardiness, and tree architecture. Several insect species infested the poplar clones over the course of the rotation. Best management practices for growers who produce hybrid poplar under short-term, intensive culture should include the following: (1) plant highly productive clones, (2) poplar clones with suitable tree architecture for production and market objectives should be used, (3) if carbon sequestration is an important production objective, plant a suitable clone, (4) some poplar clones develop chlorosis when planted in high pH soils and should be avoided, and (5) use poplar clones that have been shown to exhibit resistance to specific insect species.

C.H. Pearson; A.D. Halvorson; R.D. Moench; R.W. Hammon

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Establishing robust short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A novel method with a rigorous theoretical foundation is proposed for establishing robust short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Based on the wind turbine load time series, the proposed method begins with incorporating a declustering algorithm into the peaks over threshold (POT) method and searching for an optimum threshold level with the aid of a Mean Residual Life (MRL) plot. Then, the method of L-moments is utilized to estimate the parameters in the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) of the largest values in all the selected clusters over the optimal threshold level. As an example of calculation, an optimal threshold level of the tower base fore-aft extreme bending moments of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5-MW OC3-Hywind floating wind turbine has been obtained by utilizing the novel method. The short-term extreme response probability plots based on this optimal threshold level are compared with the probability plots based on the empirical and semi-empirical threshold levels, and the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed novel method are substantiated. Diagnostic plots are also included in this paper for validating the accuracy of the proposed novel method. The method has been further validated in another calculation example regarding an NREL 5-MW fixed-bottom monopile wind turbine.

Yingguang Wang; Yiqing Xia; Xiaojun Liu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

Herce, Miguel Angel

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Short term effects of commercial polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) mixtures and individual PCB congeners in female Sprague-Dawley rats  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SHORT TERM EFFECTS OF COMMERCIAL POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYL (PCB) MIXTURFS AND INDIVIDUAL PCB CONGENERS IN FEMALE SPRAGUE-DAWLEY RATS A Thesis by YU-CHYU CHEN Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial... fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1992 Major subject: Toxicology SHORT TERM EFFECTS OF COMMERCIAL POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYL (PCB) MIXTURES AND INDIVIDUAL PCB CONGENERS IN FEMALE SPRAGUE-DAWLEY RATS A Thesis...

Chen, Yu-Chyu

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

199

EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Microsoft Word - Alcoa_short-term_amendments2_CX.docx  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Mark Miller Mark Miller Account Executive, Long-term Sales and Purchases - PT-5 Proposed Action: Short-term Additional Amendments to the Alcoa Power Sales Agreement Categorical Exclusion Applied (from Subpart D, 10 C.F.R. Part 1021): A2 - Clarifying or administrative contract actions Location: Portland, OR and Ferndale, WA Proposed by: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Description of the Proposed Action: BPA proposes to execute one or more additional amendments to its existing 2009 Power Sales Agreement (Agreement) with Alcoa, Inc. (Alcoa) to further extend the Agreement's Initial Period provisions. The current date for expiration of these provisions under the most recent amendment (Amendment Number 4) is September 30, 2012. The current proposal involves executing one or more additional

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections November 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .lort lort lort lort <.ort ort Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Nrm ,iergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short-

202

DOE/EIA-0202(85/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1985 Published: February 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort lort lort nort lort *.ort ort Tt .m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short

203

DOE/EIA-0202(84/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4Q) 4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1984 Published: November 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort iort lort iort lort \ort ort Tt .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short Short

204

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

330E 330E Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Josh Bode, Michael Sullivan, Joseph H. Eto January 2012 The work described in this report was funded by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02- 05CH11231. ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or

205

QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) 1991 1 QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION February 1991 This publication may be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Purchasing in formation for this or other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications may be obtained from the Government Printing Office or ElA's National Energy Information Center. Questions on energy statistics should be directed to the Center by mail, telephone, or telecommunications device for the hearing impaired. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, El-231 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building, Room 1F-048 Washington, DC 20585 (202) 586-8800 Telecommunications Device for the

206

Miller's instability, microchaos and the short-term evolution of initially nearby orbits  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the phase-space behaviour of nearby trajectories in integrable potentials. We show that the separation of nearby orbits initially diverges very fast, mimicking a nearly exponential behaviour, while at late times it grows linearly. This initial exponential phase, known as Miller's instability, is commonly found in N-body simulations, and has been attributed to short-term (microscopic) N-body chaos. However we show here analytically that the initial divergence is simply due to the shape of an orbit in phase-space. This result confirms previous suspicions that this transient phenomenon is not related to an instability in the sense of non-integrable behaviour in the dynamics of N-body systems.

Amina Helmi; Facundo Gomez

2007-10-02T23:59:59.000Z

207

Short-term Variations in the Galactic Environment of the Sun  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The galactic environment of the Sun varies over short timescales as the Sun and interstellar clouds travel through space. Small variations in the dynamics, ionization, density, and magnetic field strength of the interstellar medium (ISM) surrounding the Sun yield pronounced changes in the heliosphere. We discuss essential information required to understand short-term variations in the galactic environment of the Sun, including the distribution and radiative transfer properties of nearby ISM, and variations in the boundary conditions of the heliosphere as the Sun traverses clouds. The most predictable transitions are when the Sun emerged from the Local Bubble interior and entered the cluster of local interstellar clouds flowing past the Sun, within the past 140,000 years, and again when the Sun entered the local interstellar cloud now surrounding and inside of the solar system, sometime during the past 44,000 years.

Priscilla C. Frisch; Jonathan D. Slavin

2006-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

208

Wind diesel design and the role of short term flywheel energy storage  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Wind diesel hybrid systems can often provide a cost effective solution to electricity supply in many rural and grid remote applications. The potential market for such stand alone systems is vast. The sizing and design of these systems to suite a given application is non-trivial. Design principles for wind diesel systems are presented with stress placed on the role of short term energy storage. It is shown that flywheels are the most appropriate form of energy storage. A user-friendly software package to help engineers design wind diesel systems has been developed over the last three years with support from the CEC's JOULE programme. The modelling and software development was undertaken cooperatively by several EEC and EFTA countries. An brief introduction to the software, which models both logistic and dynamic aspects of system operation, is provided and there is a discussion of its validation.

D.G. Infield

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone;  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The number of offshore wind farms is increasing rapidly, leading to questions about the environmental impact of such farms. In the Netherlands, an extensive monitoring programme is being executed at the first offshore wind farm (Offshore Windfarm Egmond aan Zee, OWEZ). This letter compiles the short-term (twoyears) results on a large number of faunal groups obtained so far. Impacts were expected from the new hard substratum, the moving rotor blades, possible underwater noise and the exclusion of fisheries. The results indicate no short-term effects on the benthos in the sandy area between the generators, while the new hard substratum of the monopiles and the scouring protection led to the establishment of new species and new fauna communities. Bivalve recruitment was not impacted by the OWEZ wind farm. Species composition of recruits in OWEZ and the surrounding reference areas is correlated with mud content of the sediment and water depth irrespective the presence of OWEZ. Recruit abundances in OWEZ were correlated with mud content, most likely to be attributed not to the presence of the farm but to the absence of fisheries. The fish community was highly dynamic both in time and space. So far, only minor effects upon fish assemblages especially near the monopiles have been observed. Some fish species, such as cod, seem to find shelter inside the farm. More porpoise clicks were recorded inside the farm than in the reference areas outside the farm. Several bird species seem to avoid the park while others are indifferent or are even attracted. The effects of the wind farm on a highly variable ecosystem are described. Overall, the OWEZ wind farm acts as a new type of habitat with a higher biodiversity of benthic organisms, a possibly increased use of the area by the benthos, fish, marine mammals and some bird species and a decreased use by several other bird species.

H J Lindeboom; H J Kouwenhoven; M J N Bergman; S Bouma; S Brasseur; R Daan; R C Fijn; D de Haan; S Dirksen; R van Hal; R Hille Ris Lambers; R ter Hofstede; K L Krijgsveld; M Leopold; M Scheidat

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

A field study evaluation of short-term refined Gaussian dispersion models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A tracer study was conducted at the Duke Forest Site in Chapel Hill, North Carolina in January, 1995 to evaluate the ability of three short-term refined Gaussian dispersion models to predict the fate of volume source emissions under field study conditions. Study participants included the American Petroleum Institute (API), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), and private consulting firms. The models evaluated were Industrial Source Complex--Short Term versions 2 and 3 (ISC2, ISC3) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model Improvement Committee (AERMIC) model, AERMOD. All three models are based on the steady-state Gaussian plume dispersion equation, which predicts concentrations at downwind receptor locations when integrated over the distance between the source and receptor. Chemicals were released at known rates and measurements were taken at various points in the study field using Tedlar bag point sampling and open-path Fourier Transform infrared (OP-FTIR) monitoring. The study found that ISC and AERMOD underpredicted the measured concentrations for each dataset collected in the field study. ISC and AERMOD each underpredicted the OPFTIR dataset by a factor of approximately 1.6. ISC underpredicted the Tedlar{reg_sign} dataset by approximately 2.1, while AERMOD underpredicted by a factor of approximately 2.6. Regardless of source configuration or measurement technique used, under-prediction with respect to the measured concentration was consistently observed. This indicates that safety factors or other corrections may be necessary in predicting contaminant concentrations over the distances examined in this study, i.e., in the near field of less than 200 meters.

Piper, A.

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

211

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

9c : U.S. Regional Weather Data 9c : U.S. Regional Weather Data Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player - = no data available Notes: Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of state degree day data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). See STEO Supplement: Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations for more information. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA's Energy Glossary for a list of states in each region.

212

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

9b : U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data 9b : U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player - = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA's Energy Glossary for a list of states in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy

213

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Real Prices Viewer Real Prices Viewer Real Petroleum Prices are computed by dividing the nominal price in a given month by the ratio of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that month to the CPI in some "base" period. The Real Petroleum Prices spreadsheet and charts are updated every month so that the current month is the base period in the monthly price series. Consequently, all real prices are expressed in "current" dollars and any current month price may be compared directly with any past or projected real prices. Download all real and nominal price series to an Excel Spreadsheet (Excel xlsx file) Data Sources History Imported Crude Oil Price (refiner average imported crude oil acquisition cost) 1968 - Present: EIA Petroleum Marketing Monthly Motor Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Price (including taxes)

214

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

215

Comparison of observed and predicted short-term tracer gas concentrations in the atmosphere  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Savannah River Laboratory is in the process of conducting a series of atmospheric tracer studies. The inert gas sulfurhexafluoride is released from a height of 62 m for 15 min and concentrations in air are measured on sampling arcs up to 30 km downwind of the release point. Maximum 15 min. air concentrations from 14 of these tracer tests have been compared with the ground-level, centerline air concentration predicted with a Gaussian plume atmospheric transport model using eight different sets of atmospheric dispersion parameters. Preliminary analysis of the results from these comparisons indicates that the dispersion parameters developed at Juelich, West Germany, based on tracers released from a height of 50 m, give the best overall agreement between the predicted and observed values. The median value of the ratio of predicted to observed air concentrations for this set of parameters is 1.3, and the correlation coefficient between the log of the predictions and the log of the observations is 0.72. For the commonly used Pasquill-Gifford dispersion parameters, the values of these same statistics are 4.4 and 0.68, respectively. The Gaussian plume model is widely used to predict air concentrations resulting from short-term radionuclide release to the atmosphere. The results of comparisons such as these must be considered whenever the Gaussian model is used for such purposes. 22 references, 3 tables.

Cotter, S.J.; Miller, C.W.; Lin, W.C.T.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Short term performance comparisons between a solar thermosyphon water heater and two numerical models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An experimental study of a solar thermosyphon domestic water heater was conducted in the indoor solar simulator facility at Colorado State University (Bickford, 1994). The system consisted of a closed-loop collector circuit filled with propylene glycol and water solution and a horizontal storage tank with an annular tank-in-tank heat exchanger. Short-term irradiated tests with and without timed draws were performed to assess overall performance and monitor collector flow rate, storage tank stratification, and heat exchanger temperature distribution. The measured performance was compared with the ``standard`` thermosyphon model in TRNSYS 13.1 (transient system simulation program). A revised TRNSYS model was developed by Graham Morrison at the University of New South Wales, Australia. The revised model specifically addressed the horizontal tank, closed-loop configuration. The standard TRNSYS version predicted solar gain within 17% of the measured values and differed dramatically from experimental collector temperatures, closed-loop flow rate, and tank stratification. This is not surprising since this model does not include the tank and tank heat exchanger. The revised TRNSYS model agreed more closely with experimental results. It predicted closed-loop flow at 8% lower than observed flow and collector temperature rise that was higher than the observed flow by approximately the same amount, resulting in extremely accurate prediction of collector output energy. Losses from the storage tank and piping were significantly underpredicted in both models, however.

Bickford, C.; Hittle, D.C. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Solar Energy Applications Lab.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Short-term production optimization of offshore oil and gas production using nonlinear model predictive control  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The topic of this paper is the application of nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for optimizing control of an offshore oil and gas production facility. Of particular interest is the use of NMPC for direct short-term production optimization, where two methods for (one-layer) production optimization in NMPC are investigated. The first method is the unreachable setpoints method where an unreachable setpoint is used in order to maximize oil production. The ideas from this method are combined with the exact penalty function for soft constraints in a second method, named infeasible soft-constraints. Both methods can be implemented within standard NMPC software tools. The case-study first looks into the use of NMPC for conventional pressure control, where disturbance rejection of time-varying disturbances (caused, e.g., by the slugging phenomenon) is an issue. Then the above two methods for production optimization are employed, where both methods find the economically optimal operating point. Two different types of reservoir models are studied, using rate-independent and rate-dependent gas/oil ratios. These models lead to different types of optimums. The relative merits of the two methods for production optimization, and advantages of the two one-layer approaches compared to a two-layer structure, are discussed.

Anders Willersrud; Lars Imsland; Svein Olav Hauger; Pl Kittilsen

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Daily/Hourly Hydrosystem Operation : How the Columbia River System Responds to Short-Term Needs.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The System Operation Review, being conducted by the Bonneville Power Administration, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the US Bureau of Reclamation, is analyzing current and potential future operations of the Columbia River System. One goal of the System Operations Review is to develop a new System Operation Strategy. The strategy will be designed to balance the many regionally and nationally important uses of the Columbia River system. Short-term operations address the dynamics that affect the Northwest hydro system and its multiple uses. Demands for electrical power and natural streamflows change constantly and thus are not precisely predictable. Other uses of the hydro system have constantly changing needs, too, many of which can interfere with other uses. Project operators must address various river needs, physical limitations, weather, and streamflow conditions while maintaining the stability of the electric system and keeping your lights on. It takes staffing around the clock to manage the hour-to-hour changes that occur and the challenges that face project operators all the time.

Columbia River System Operation Review (U.S.)

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Changes in mechanical properties of irradiated Zircaloy-2 fuel cladding due to short term annealing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Zirconium-lined fuel cladding tubes irradiated to 2.7 1025n/m2 (E > 1MeV) in a BWR, which had experienced recrystallized annealing in the final process in their manufacture, were heat treated at 500700C for 5600 s to simulate short term dry-out. Tensile tests, hardness measurements, fatigue tests and X-ray analyses were made on those specimens. The irradiation hardening in hardness at room temperature and ultimate tensile strength at 343C recovered to approximately 80% of that after heat treatment at 600700C for less than 15 s. Fatigue life and half value width of X-ray analysis recovered to these of unirradiated cladding tube after annealing for 15 s at 600C. These recovery rates were faster than those on cold worked and stress relieved zirconium alloys. An equation to predict the remaining fraction of hardening was proposed by using the regression analysis on tensile strength and hardness values.

Tadahiko Torimaru; Takayoshi Yasuda; Masafumi Nakatsuka

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Scenarios for a South African CSP Peaking System in the Short Term  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The South African Integrated Resource Plan is a policy document, which by law allocates the energy resources that will be built to meet the future electricity needs of South Africa. The current Integrated Resource Plan indicates the electricity generation types that will be built from 2010 to 2030. It states that most of the future peak load will be met by Open Cycle Gas Turbines which operate using diesel and represents an allocation of 4,930M W. Further, the Integrated Resource Plan does not identify CSP as a potential peaking solution and allocates 1,200M W of capacity to CSP. This represents less than 2% of total capacity in 2030. This paper investigates the feasibility of utilizing CSP Plants as peaking plants in the short to medium term based on a proposition that under certain scenarios, a fleet of unsubsidized CSP peaking plants could drop the LCOE of the current Integrated Resource Plan. This is done by modeling a contemporary CSP tower system with Thermal Energy Storage. The Gemasolar CSP plant is used as the reference plant in order to obtain operating parameters. Our analysis suggests that at current fuels costs, diesel powered Open Cycle Gas Turbines produce electricity in excess of 5.08 ZAR/kWh (?0.63 US$/kWh), significantly above current CSP energy generating costs. This is the context that informed the undertaking of this study, to influence policy and provide technical evidence that CSP can guarantee and deliver energy at competitive costs in the short term. Two alternate scenarios show a lower LCOE for providing peak power. The most promising is a combined distributed CSP system wit h diesel powered Open Cycle Gas Turbine system as backup. The LCOE for this system is 2.78 ZAR (?0.34 $/kWh) or a drop of 45% when no fuel price inflation is considered. This system also increases security of supply due to a lower dependence on fuel prices.

C. Silinga; P. Gauch

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Short-Term Fates of High Sulfur Inputs in Northern California Vineyard Soils  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The widespread application of elemental sulfur (S{sup 0}) to vineyards may have ecosystem effects at multiple scales. We evaluated the short-term fates of applied S{sup 0} in a Napa Valley vineyard; we determined changes in soil sulfur (S) speciation (measured by X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy), soil pH, extractable sulfate (SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}), and total S to evaluate changes in acidity and soil S within the vineyard over time. Surface soil samples were collected immediately prior to and following two applications of S{sup 0} (6.7 kg S{sup 0} ha{sup -1}), with weekly collections in the 2 weeks between applications and following the last application. XANES spectra indicated that the majority of soil S persists in the +6 oxidation state and that S{sup 0} oxidizes within 7 days following application. Soil pH and extractable SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} measurements taken at 30 min after S{sup 0} application revealed generation of acidity and an increase in extractable SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, but by 12 days after application, soil pH increased to approximately pre-application levels. These data suggest that the major consequence of reactive S applications in vineyards may be the accumulation of soil SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and organic S during the growing season, which can be mobilized during storm events during the dormant (wet) season. In spatially-extensive winegrowing regions where these applications are made by hundreds of individual farmers each year, it will be important to understand the long-term implications of this perturbation to the regional S cycle.

E Hinckley; S Fendorf; P Matson

2011-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

222

Comparative effects of sodium channel blockers in short term rat whole embryo culture  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study was undertaken to examine the effect on the rat embryonic heart of two experimental drugs (AZA and AZB) which are known to block the sodium channel Nav1.5, the hERG potassium channel and the L-type calcium channel. The sodium channel blockers bupivacaine, lidocaine, and the L-type calcium channel blocker nifedipine were used as reference substances. The experimental model was the gestational day (GD) 13 rat embryo cultured in vitro. In this model the embryonic heart activity can be directly observed, recorded and analyzed using computer assisted image analysis as it responds to the addition of test drugs. The effect on the heart was studied for a range of concentrations and for a duration up to 3 h. The results showed that AZA and AZB caused a concentration-dependent bradycardia of the embryonic heart and at high concentrations heart block. These effects were reversible on washout. In terms of potency to cause bradycardia the compounds were ranked AZB > bupivacaine > AZA > lidocaine > nifedipine. Comparison with results from previous studies with more specific ion channel blockers suggests that the primary effect of AZA and AZB was sodium channel blockage. The study shows that the short-term rat whole embryo culture (WEC) is a suitable system to detect substances hazardous to the embryonic heart. - Highlights: Study of the effect of sodium channel blocking drugs on embryonic heart function We used a modified method rat whole embryo culture with image analysis. The drugs tested caused a concentration dependent bradycardia and heart block. The effect of drugs acting on multiple ion channels is difficult to predict. This method may be used to detect cardiotoxicity in prenatal development.

Nilsson, Mats F, E-mail: Mats.Nilsson@farmbio.uu.se [Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences, Uppsala University (Sweden); Skld, Anna-Carin; Ericson, Ann-Christin; Annas, Anita; Villar, Rodrigo Palma [AstraZeneca R and D Sdertlje (Sweden); Cebers, Gvido [AstraZeneca R and D, iMed, 141 Portland Street, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Hellmold, Heike; Gustafson, Anne-Lee [AstraZeneca R and D Sdertlje (Sweden); Webster, William S [Department of Anatomy and Histology, University of Sydney (Australia)

2013-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

223

The effect of a large resuspension event in Southern Lake Michigan on the short-term cycling of organic contaminants  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 The effect of a large resuspension event in Southern Lake Michigan on the short-term cycling intensive campaigns before and after the resuspension event and 2) settling sediment collected using a time from increased gas-phase deposition due to the resuspension event was 8 kg for PCBs and 2200 kg

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Episodic Events

224

Volume 29, Issue 2 On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in gcc  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Volume 29, Issue 2 On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets Rouen & LEO Abstract This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

225

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 24, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 125 Short-Term Prediction of Wind Farm Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 24, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 125 Short-Term Prediction of Wind Farm Power: A Data Mining Approach Andrew Kusiak, Member, IEEE, Haiyang Zheng, and Zhe Song, Student Member, IEEE Abstract--This paper examines time series models for predicting the power of a wind

Kusiak, Andrew

226

High Statistics Study of Nearby Type 1a Supernovae. QUEST Camera Short Term Maintenance: Final Technical Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Quest Camera was installed at the Palomar Obervatory in California. The camera was used to carry out a survey of low redshift Type 1a supernovae.The purpose of this DOE grant was to perform short term maintenance on the QUEST camera.

Baltay, Charles

2012-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

227

Business-driven short-term management of a hybrid IT infrastructure  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We consider the problem of managing a hybrid computing infrastructure whose processing elements are comprised of in-house dedicated machines, virtual machines acquired on-demand from a cloud computing provider through short-term reservation contracts, and virtual machines made available by the remote peers of a best-effort peer-to-peer (P2P) grid. Each of these resources has different cost basis and associated quality of service guarantees. The applications that run in this hybrid infrastructure are characterized by a utility function: the utility gained with the completion of an application depends on the time taken to execute it. We take a business-driven approach to manage this infrastructure, aiming at maximizing the profit yielded, that is, the utility produced as a result of the applications that are run minus the cost of the computing resources that are used to run them. We propose a heuristic to be used by a contract planner agent that establishes the contracts with the cloud computing provider to balance the cost of running an application and the utility that is obtained with its execution, with the goal of producing a high overall profit. Our analytical results show that the simple heuristic proposed achieves very high relative efficiency in the use of the hybrid infrastructure. We also demonstrate that the ability to estimate the grid behaviour is an important condition for making contracts that allow such relative efficiency values to be achieved. On the other hand, our simulation results with realistic error predictions show only a modest improvement in the profit achieved by the simple heuristic proposed, when compared to a heuristic that does not consider the grid when planning contracts, but uses it, and another that is completely oblivious to the existence of the grid. This calls for the development of more accurate predictors for the availability of P2P grids, and more elaborated heuristics that can better deal with the several sources of non-determinism present in this hybrid infrastructure.

Paulo Ditarso Maciel Jr.; Francisco Brasileiro; Ricardo Arajo Santos; David Candeia; Raquel Lopes; Marcus Carvalho; Renato Miceli; Nazareno Andrade; Miranda Mowbray

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Where can I find free economic forecasts? Economic forecasts have become an integral part of business and individual investment decisions. Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the Conference Board provides short term (quarterly and annual) forecasts for real GDP, real consumer spending include (among others): GDP and real GDP, price indices for GDP and consumer spending, unemployment are projections of economic activity including GDP growth. These reports can be found on-line at: http

Johnson, Eric E.

229

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills 1

230

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this STEO provide a broad guide to changes compared with last winter. However, fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, market size, the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings (see Winter Fuels Outlook table). Forecast temperatures are close to last winter nationally, with the Northeast about 3% colder and the West 3% warmer. Natural Gas About one-half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel. EIA expects households heating with natural gas to spend an average of $80 (13%) more this winter than last winter. The increase in natural gas

231

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields Tuesday, September 10, 2013, 10:00AM EST Overview During July and August 2013, protests at major oil loading ports in the central-eastern region of Libya forced the complete or partial shut-in of oil fields linked to the ports. As a result of protests at ports and at some oil fields, crude oil production fell to 1.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July and 600,000 bbl/d in August, although the production level at the end of August was far lower. At the end of August, an armed group blocked pipelines that connect the El Sharara and El Feel (Elephant) fields to the Zawiya and Mellitah export terminals, respectively, forcing the shutdown of those fields. El Sharara had been

232

Methodological basis to decide short-term investments in distribution systems under uncertainty in performance-based regulatory frameworks  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents new concepts and methodological tools to decide the investments that electric distribution utilities must perform under regulatory frameworks based on performance (Performance Based Regulation or PBR). The proposal is focused on short-term investments. In this work, the subject of hierarchical expansion planning and the basis for an investment decision methodology are presented. Furthermore, the uncertainties to be considered in the problem are indicated and uncertainty representation by means of Type-2 Fuzzy Numbers (T2-FN) is proposed due to the fact that T2-FN, besides modelling the uncertainties in quantitative form, can model uncertainties associated to expert knowledge of qualitative characteristics. System diagnosis and identification of problem areas are considered and it is proposed to classify these areas by using performance indices, then the possible short-term investments are analysed. Finally, a profit-cost and risk analysis for a high-priority investment classification are proposed.

Sergio Raul Rivera; Alberto Vargas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Monthly Biodiesel Production Report  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Monthly Biodiesel Production Monthly Biodiesel Production Report November 2013 With Data for September 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Monthly Biodiesel Production Report This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or

234

Methodology for Analyzing Energy and Demand Savings From Energy Services Performance Contract Using Short-Term Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING ENERGY AND DEMAND SAVINGS FROM ENERGY SERVICES PERFORMANCE CONTRACT USING SHORT-TERM DATA Zi Liu, Jeff Haberl, Soolyeon Cho Energy Systems Laboratory Texas A&M University System College Station, TX 77843 Bobby... Contract, and includes the methodology developed to calculate the electricity and demand use savings based on different data sources including hourly data from permanently installed logger, hourly data from portable loggers, and weekly manual readings...

Liu, Z.; Haberl, J. S.; Cho, S.; Lynn, B.; Cook, M.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview EIA expects production from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to grow year-over-year by a record high of 1.9 million bbl/d in 2014. OPEC crude oil production is forecast to decline by 0.5 million bbl/d in 2014, mostly as a result of some OPEC producers cutting back production to accommodate non-OPEC supply growth. The projected decline in production by some OPEC producers increases in surplus crude oil production capacity, which grows from an average of 2.2 million bbl/d in 2013 to 2.7 million bbl/d in 2014. The call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks (world consumption less non-OPEC production and OPEC non-crude oil production) falls from an average 30.4 million bbl/d in 2013

237

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Cold weather in December had significant effects on demand, supply, and prices across the country. Cold weather led to a net withdrawal of 285 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending Friday, December 13. This was the largest storage withdrawal since recordkeeping began in 1994. Another larger-than-normal storage withdrawal of 177 Bcf occurred the following week. Widespread freeze-offs occurred in December and disrupted production for several days in the Piceance Basin in Utah and Wyoming, the Uinta Basin in Utah, the San Joaquin Basin in California, and the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Imports from Canada helped mitigate the loss of supply. During the month, prices rose across most of the country, and the Henry Hub price averaged about $0.60/MMBtu higher than the previous month's average.

238

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

239

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Highlights Highlights After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher crude oil prices. The annual average regular gasoline retail price, which was $3.63 per gallon in 2012, is expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and $3.43 per gallon in 2014. The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price averaged near $110 per barrel for the fifth consecutive month in November. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to average $108 per barrel in December and decline gradually to $104 per barrel in 2014. Projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $95 per barrel during 2014.

240

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary 1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Includes lease condensate. b Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption. c Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy. d The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated by using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER). Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

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241

Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor short term thermal response to flow and reactivity transients  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The analyses reported here have been conducted at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Division of Regulatory Applications of the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The short-term thermal response of the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) is analyzed for a range of flow and reactivity transients. These include loss of forced circulation (LOFC) without scram, moisture ingress, spurious withdrawal of a control rod group, hypothetical large and rapid positive reactivity insertion, and a rapid core cooling event. The coupled heat transfer-neutron kinetics model is also described.

Cleveland, J.C.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Short-term methods for estimating the chronic toxicity of effluents and receiving water to freshwater organisms. Third edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This manual describes four short-term (four- to seven-day) methods for estimating the chronic toxicity of effluents and receiving waters to three freshwater species: The fathead minnow, Pimephales promelas, a daphnid, Ceriodaphnia dubia, and a green alga, Selenastrum capricornutum. The methods include single and multiple concentration static renewal and non-renewal toxicity tests for effluents and receiving waters. Also included are guidelines on laboratory safety, quality assurance, facilities, equipment and supplies; dilution water; effluent and receiving water sample collection, preservation, shipping, and holding; test conditions; toxicity test data analysis; report preparation; and organism culturing, holding, and handling.

Lewis, P.A.; Klemm, D.J.; Lazorchak, J.M.; Norberg-King, T.J.; Peltier, W.H.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Methodology for predicting long-term fuel-cell performance from short-term testing. Final technical report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this program was to develop a methodology for predicting long-term fuel cell performance from short-term testing, utilizing a perturbation testing technique. The technique applies small changes of predetermined levels in a predetermined sequence to the operating variables such that the decay mechanisms are not altered. This technique was tested on the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC), because this technology is approaching a mature stage. The initial series of perturbation tests appear to be reasonably successful and a methodology is now available for further refinements. The progress made during the study is detailed.

Patel, D.; Farooque, M.; Maru, H.; Ware, C.

1981-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: A hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM.

Xing Yan; Nurul A. Chowdhury

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

A Comparison of Soil Sensitivity to Acidification Based on Laboratory-Determined Short-Term Acid Buffering Capacity and the Skokloster Classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The sensitivity of mineral soils to anthropogenically-induced acidification may be assessed using the Skokloster classification or by considering the short-term acid buffering capacity (STABC). The Skokloster ...

Mark E. Hodson; Simon J. Langan

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

A Comparison of Soil Sensitivity to Acidification Based on Laboratory-Determined Short-Term Acid Buffering Capacity and the Skokloster Classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The sensitivity of mineral soils to anthropogenically-induced acidification may be assessed using the Skokloster classification or by considering the short-term acid buffering capacity (STABC). The Skokloster ...

Mark E. Hodson; Simon J. Langan; David G. Lumsdon

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

248

Short-term cascaded hydroelectric system scheduling based on chaotic particle swarm optimization using improved logistic map  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to solve the model of short-term cascaded hydroelectric system scheduling, a novel chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm using improved logistic map is introduced, which uses the water discharge as the decision variables combined with the death penalty function. According to the principle of maximum power generation, the proposed approach makes use of the ergodicity, symmetry and stochastic property of improved logistic chaotic map for enhancing the performance of particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The new hybrid method has been examined and tested on two test functions and a practical cascaded hydroelectric system. The experimental results show that the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed CPSO algorithm in comparison with other traditional algorithms.

Yaoyao He; Shanlin Yang; Qifa Xu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Visualization of short-term heart period variability with network tools as a method for quantifying autonomic drive  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Signals from heart transplant recipients can be considered to be a natural source of information for a better understanding of the impact of the autonomic nervous system on the complexity of heart rate variability. Beat-to-beat heart rate variability can be represented as a network of increments between subsequent $RR$-intervals, which makes possible the visualization of short-term heart period fluctuations. A network is constructed of vertices representing increments between subsequent $RR$-intervals, and edges which connect adjacent $RR$-increments. Two modes of visualization of such a network are proposed. The method described is applied to nocturnal Holter signals recorded from healthy young people and from cardiac transplant recipients. Additionally, the analysis is performed on surrogate data: shuffled RR-intervals (to display short-range dependence), and shuffled phases of the Fourier Transform of RR-intervals (to filter out linear dependences). Important nonlinear properties of autonomic nocturnal reg...

Makowiec, Danuta; Kaczkowska, Agnieszka; Graff, Grzegorz; Wejer, Dorota; Wdowczyk, Joanna; Zarczynska-Buchowiecka, Marta; Gruchala, Marcin; Struzik, Zbigniew R

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Modeling of short-term mechanism of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: Object-oriented and acausal approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This letter introduces an alternative approach to modeling the cardiovascular system with a short-term control mechanism published in Computers in Biology and Medicine, Vol. 47 (2014), pp. 104112. We recommend using abstract components on a distinct physical level, separating the model into hydraulic components, subsystems of the cardiovascular system and individual subsystems of the control mechanism and scenario. We recommend utilizing an acausal modeling feature of Modelica language, which allows model variables to be expressed declaratively. Furthermore, the Modelica tool identifies which are the dependent and independent variables upon compilation. An example of our approach is introduced on several elementary components representing the hydraulic resistance to fluid flow and the elastic response of the vessel, among others. The introduced model implementation can be more reusable and understandable for the general scientific community.

Tom Kulhnek; Ji? Kofrnek; Marek Matejk

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Microstructural evolution of delta ferrite in SAVE12 steel under heat treatment and short-term creep  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research focused on the formation and microstructural evolution of delta ferrite phase in SAVE12 steel. The formation of delta ferrite was due to the high content of ferrite forming alloy elements such as Cr, W, and Ta. This was interpreted through either JMatPro-4.1 computer program or Cr{sub eq} calculations. Delta ferrite was found in bamboo-like shape and contained large amount of MX phase. It was surrounded by Laves phases before creep or aging treatment. Annealing treatments were performed under temperatures from 1050 Degree-Sign C to 1100 Degree-Sign C and various time periods to study its dissolution kinetics. The result showed that most of the delta ferrite can be dissolved by annealing in single phase austenitic region. Dissolution process of delta ferrite may largely depend on dissolution kinetic factors, rather than on thermodynamic factors. Precipitation behavior during short-term (1100 h) creep was investigated at temperature of 600 Degree-Sign C under a stress of 180 MPa. The results demonstrated that delta ferrite became preferential nucleation sites for Laves phase at the early stage of creep. Laves phase on the boundary around delta ferrite showed relatively slower growth and coarsening rate than that inside delta ferrite. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delta ferrite is systematically studied under heat treatment and short-term creep. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delta ferrite contains large number of MX phase and is surrounded by Laves phases before creep or aging treatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Formation of delta ferrite is interpreted by theoretical and empirical methods. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Most of the delta ferrite is dissolved by annealing in single phase austenitic region. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delta ferrite becomes preferential nucleation sites for Laves phase at the early stage of creep.

Li, Shengzhi, E-mail: lishengzhi@sjtu.edu.cn [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)] [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Eliniyaz, Zumrat; Zhang, Lanting; Sun, Feng [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)] [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Shen, Yinzhong [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)] [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Shan, Aidang, E-mail: adshan@sjtu.edu.cn [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)] [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)

2012-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

252

Effects of various uranium leaching procedures on soil: Short-term vegetation growth and physiology. Progress report, April 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Significant volumes of soil containing elevated levels of uranium exist in the eastern United States. The contamination resulted from the development of the nuclear industry in the United States requiring a large variety of uranium products. The contaminated soil poses a collection and disposal problem of a magnitude that justifies the development of decontamination methods. Consequently, the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development formed the Uranium Soils Integrated Demonstration (USID) program to address the problem. The fundamental goal of the USID task group has been the selective extraction/leaching or removal of uranium from soil faster, cheaper, and safer than what can be done using current conventional technologies. The objective is to selectively remove uranium from soil without seriously degrading the soil`s physicochemical characteristics and without generating waste that is difficult to manage and/or dispose of. However, procedures developed for removing uranium from contaminated soil have involved harsh chemical treatments that affect the physicochemical properties of the soil. The questions are (1) are the changes in soil properties severe enough to destroy the soil`s capacity to support and sustain vegetation growth and survival? and (2) what amendments might be made to the leached soil to return it to a reasonable vegetation production capacity? This study examines the vegetation-support capacity of soil that had been chemically leached to remove uranium. The approach is to conduct short-term germination and phytotoxicity tests for evaluating soils after they are subjected to various leaching procedures followed by longer term pot studies on successfully leached soils that show the greatest capacity to support plant growth. This report details the results from germination and short-term phytotoxicity testing of soils that underwent a variety of leaching procedures at the bench scale at ORNL and at the pilot plant at Fernald.

Edwards, N.T.

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Univariate forecasting of day-ahead hourly electricity demand in the northern grid of India  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term electricity demand forecasts (minutes to several hours ahead) have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive energy markets. The issue is particularly important for India as it has recently set up a power exchange (PX), which has been operating on day-ahead hourly basis. In this study, an attempt has been made to forecast day-ahead hourly demand of electricity in the northern grid of India using univariate time-series forecasting techniques namely multiplicative seasonal ARIMA and Holt-Winters multiplicative exponential smoothing (ES). In-sample forecasts reveal that ARIMA models, except in one case, outperform ES models in terms of lower RMSE, MAE and MAPE criteria. We may conclude that linear time-series models works well to explain day-ahead hourly demand forecasts in the northern grid of India. The findings of the study will immensely help the players in the upcoming power market in India.

Sajal Ghosh

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Monthly Reports  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

month. Should you have questions about the EM Monthly Reports please contact envmgt@nv.doe.gov or call (702) 295-3521. October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013...

255

Monthly Reports  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

month. Should you have questions about the EM Monthly Reports please contact envmgt@nv.doe.gov or call (702) 295-3521. October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014...

256

Improved one day-ahead price forecasting using combined time series and artificial neural network models for the electricity market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The price forecasts embody crucial information for generators when planning bidding strategies to maximise profits. Therefore, generation companies need accurate price forecasting tools. Comparison of neural network and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast commodity prices in previous researches showed that the artificial neural network (ANN) forecasts were considerably more accurate than traditional ARIMA models. This paper provides an accurate and efficient tool for short-term price forecasting based on the combination of ANN and ARIMA. Firstly, input variables for ANN are determined by time series analysis. This model relates the current prices to the values of past prices. Secondly, ANN is used for one day-ahead price forecasting. A three-layered feed-forward neural network algorithm is used for forecasting next-day electricity prices. The ANN model is then trained and tested using data from electricity market of Iran. According to previous studies, in the case of neural networks and ARIMA models, historical demand data do not significantly improve predictions. The results show that the combined ANN??ARIMA forecasts prices with high accuracy for short-term periods. Also, it is shown that policy-making strategies would be enhanced due to increased precision and reliability.

Ali Azadeh; Seyed Farid Ghaderi; Behnaz Pourvalikhan Nokhandan; Shima Nassiri

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Effect of short-term material balances on the projected uranium measurement uncertainties for the gas centrifuge enrichment plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A program is under way to design an effective International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system that could be applied to the Portsmouth Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP). This system would integrate nuclear material accountability with containment and surveillance. Uncertainties in material balances due to errors in the measurements of the declared uranium streams have been projected on a yearly basis for GCEP under such a system in a previous study. Because of the large uranium flows, the projected balance uncertainties were, in some cases, greater than the IAEA goal quantity of 75 kg of U-235 contained in low-enriched uranium. Therefore, it was decided to investigate the benefits of material balance periods of less than a year in order to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of the nuclear material accountability system. An analysis has been made of projected uranium measurement uncertainties for various short-term material balance periods. To simplify this analysis, only a material balance around the process area is considered and only the major UF/sub 6/ stream measurements are included. That is, storage areas are not considered and uranium waste streams are ignored. It is also assumed that variations in the cascade inventory are negligible compared to other terms in the balance so that the results obtained in this study are independent of the absolute cascade inventory. This study is intended to provide information that will serve as the basis for the future design of a dynamic materials accounting component of the IAEA safeguards system for GCEP.

Younkin, J.M.; Rushton, J.E.

1980-02-05T23:59:59.000Z

258

Global transcriptional analysis of short-term hepatic stress responses in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) exposed to depleted uranium  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Potential environmental hazards of radionuclides are often studied at the individual level. Sufficient toxicogenomics data at the molecular/cellular level for understanding the effects and modes of toxic action (MoAs) of radionuclide is still lacking. The current article introduces transcriptomic data generated from a recent ecotoxicological study, with the aims to characterize the MoAs of a metallic radionuclide, deplete uranium (DU) in an ecologically and commercially important fish species, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Salmon were exposed to three concentrations (0.25, 0.5 and 1.0mg/L) of DU for 48h. Short-term global transcriptional responses were studied using Agilent custom-designed high density 60,000-feature (60k) salmonid oligonucleotide microarrays (oligoarray). The microarray datasets deposited at Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO ID: GSE58824) were associated with a recently published study by Song et al. (2014) in BMC Genomics. The authors describe the experimental data herein to build a platform for better understanding the toxic mechanisms and ecological hazard of radionuclides such as DU in fish.

You Song; Brit Salbu; Hans-Christian Teien; Lene Srlie Heier; Bjrn Olav Rosseland; Tore Hgsen; Knut Erik Tollefsen

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Chapter 6 - Incorporating Short-Term Stored Energy Resource into MISO Energy and Ancillary Service Market and Development of Performance-Based Regulation Payment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This chapter analyzes various approaches to incorporate short-term stored energy resources (SERs) into MISO co-optimized energy and ancillary service market. Based on analysis, the best approach is to utilize short-term storage energy resources for regulating reserve with the real-time energy dispatch of the \\{SERs\\} to be set in such a way that the maximum regulating reserve on \\{SERs\\} can be cleared. It also introduces the implementation of market based regulation performance payment. The purpose of the enhancement is to provide fair compensation for resources such as \\{SERs\\} that can provide fast and accurate responses.

Yonghong Chen; Marc Keyser; Matthew H. Tackett; Ryan Leonard; Joe Gardner

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Monthly Energy Review - December 2009  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Formats Formats (PDF) files; however, all annual data are shown in the Excel and comma-separated values (CSV) files. Also, only two to three years of monthly data are displayed in the PDF files; however, for many series, monthly data beginning with January 1973 are available in the Excel and CSV files. Comprehensive Changes: Each month, most MER tables and figures carry a new month of data, which is usually preliminary (and sometimes estimated or even forecast) and likely to be revised in the succeeding month. Annual Data From 1949: The emphasis of the MER is on recent monthly and annual data trends. Analysts may wish to use the data in this report in conjunction with EIA's Annual Energy Review (AER) that offers annual data beginning in 1949 for many of the data series found in the

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Apolipoprotein E Genotype-Dependent Paradoxical Short-Term Effects of {sup 56}Fe Irradiation on the Brain  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: In humans, apolipoprotein E (apoE) is encoded by three major alleles ({epsilon}2, {epsilon}3, and {epsilon}4) and, compared to apoE3, apoE4 increases the risk of developing Alzheimer disease and cognitive impairments following various environmental challenges. Exposure to irradiation, including that of {sup 56}Fe, during space missions poses a significant risk to the central nervous system, and apoE isoform might modulate this risk. Methods and Materials: We investigated whether apoE isoform modulates hippocampus-dependent cognitive performance starting 2 weeks after {sup 56}Fe irradiation. Changes in reactive oxygen species (ROS) can affect cognition and are induced by irradiation. Therefore, after cognitive testing, we assessed hippocampal ROS levels in ex vivo brain slices, using the ROS-sensitive fluorescent probe, dihydroethidium (DHE). Brain levels of 3-nitrotyrosine (3-NT), CuZn superoxide dismutase (CuZnSOD), extracellular SOD, and apoE were assessed using Western blotting analysis. Results: In the water maze, spatial memory retention was impaired by irradiation in apoE2 and apoE4 mice but enhanced by irradiation in apoE3 mice. Irradiation reduced DHE-oxidation levels in the enclosed blade of the dentate gyrus and levels of 3-NT and CuZnSOD in apoE2 but not apoE3 or apoE4 mice. Finally, irradiation increased apoE levels in apoE3 but not apoE2 or apoE4 mice. Conclusions: The short-term effects of {sup 56}Fe irradiation on hippocampal ROS levels and hippocampus-dependent spatial memory retention are apoE isoform-dependent.

Haley, Gwendolen E. [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States) [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States); Division of Neuroscience, Oregon National Primate Research Center, Beaverton, OR (United States); Villasana, Laura; Dayger, Catherine; Davis, Matthew J. [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States)] [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States); Raber, Jacob, E-mail: raberj@ohsu.edu [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States) [Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States); Division of Neuroscience, Oregon National Primate Research Center, Beaverton, OR (United States); Department of Neurology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR (United States)

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

> REPLACE THIS LINE WITH YOUR PAPER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (DOUBLE-CLICK HERE TO EDIT) < 1 An Analytical Framework for Short-Term Resource  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

markets, strategic behavior, capacity gaming. I. INTRODUCTION HE electric system is said to be reliable markets, is capacity. Since sellers need not offer all their capacity to serve the demand, they may engage An Analytical Framework for Short-Term Resource Adequacy in Competitive Electricity Markets Pablo A. Ruiz

263

Estimation of original gas in place from short-term shut-in pressure data for commingled tight gas reservoirs with no crossflow  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

gas production (GP) under these circumstances. This research studies different empirical methods to estimate the original gas in place (OGIP) for one-layer or commingled two-layer tight gas reservoirs without crossflow, from short-term (72-hour) shut...

Khuong, Chan Hung

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

264

Modelling of long-term and short-term mechanisms of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: An object-oriented approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A mathematical model that provides an overall description of both the short- and long-term mechanisms of arterial pressure regulation is presented. Short-term control is exerted through the baroreceptor reflex while renal elimination plays a role in ... Keywords: Cardiovascular system, DYMOLA simulation environment, MODELICA programming language, Object-oriented modelling, Pressure control

J. Fernandez De Canete, J. Luque, J. Barbancho, V. Munoz

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Monthly Energy Review - December 2012  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA's Office of Communications via email EIA's Office of Communications via email at infoctr@eia.gov. Important Notes About the Data Data Displayed: For tables beginning in 1973, some annual data (usually 1974, 1976-1979, 1981-1984, 1986-1989, and 1991-1994) are not shown in the tables in Portable Document Format (PDF) files; however, all annual data are shown in the Excel and comma-separated values (CSV) files. Also, only two to three years of monthly data are displayed in the PDF files; however, for many series, monthly data beginning with January 1973 are available in the Excel and CSV files. Comprehensive Changes: Each month, most MER tables and figures carry a new month of data, which is usually preliminary (and sometimes estimated or even forecast) and likely to be revised in the succeeding month.

266

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: 2013 Hurricane Outlook 1

267

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

268

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

270

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

CERTS Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Review Review REAL-TIME PRICE FORECAST WITH BIG DATA A STATE SPACE APPROACH Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, Yuting Ji, and Jinsub Kim School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University Jie Mei, Georgia Institute of Technology August 7, 2013 CERTS Review DATA QUALITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON MARKET OPERATIONS DENY OF SERVICE ATTACK ON REAL-TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET COVER UP PROTECTION AGAINST TOPOLOGY ATTACK Lang Tong (PI), Robert J. Thomas, and Jinsub Kim Cornell University August 8, 2013 Project overview  Objectives  Accurate short-term probabilistic forecasting of real-time LMP.  Incorporate real-time measurements (e.g. SCADA/PMU).  Scalable computation techniques.  Summary of results  A real-time LMP model with forecasting and measurement

274

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

275

BWRSAR (Boiling Water Reactor Severe Accident Response) calculations of reactor vessel debris pours for Peach Bottom short-term station blackout  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes recent analyses performed by the BWR Severe Accident Technology (BWRSAT) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to estimate the release of debris from the reactor vessel for the unmitigated short-term station blackout accident sequence. Calculations were performed with the BWR Severe Accident Response (BWRSAR) code and are based upon consideration of the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The modeling strategies employed within BWRSAR for debris relocation within the reactor vessel are briefly discussed and the calculated events of the accident sequence, including details of the calculated debris pours, are presented. 4 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

Hodge, S.A.; Ott, L.J.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Short-term methods for estimating the chronic toxicity of effluents and receiving water to marine and estuarine organisms. Second edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This manual describes six short-term (one hour to nine days) estuarine and marine methods for measuring the chronic toxicity of effluents and receiving waters to five species; the sheepshead minnow, Cyprinodon variegatus; the inland silverside, Menidia beryllina; the mysid, Mysidopsis bahia; the sea urchin, Arbacia punctualata; and the red macroalga, Champia parvula. The methods include single and multiple concentration static renewal and static nonrenewal toxicity tests for effluents and receiving waters. Also included are guidelines on laboratory safety, quality assurance, facilities, and equipment and supplies; dilution water; effluent and receiving water sample collection, preservation, shipping, and holding; test conditions; toxicity test data analysis; report preparation; and organism culturing, holding, and handling.

Klemm, D.J.; Morrison, G.E.; Norberg-King, T.J.; Peltier, W.H.; Heber, M.A.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

CLIMAGE: A New Software for the Prediction of Short-Term Weather with the Help of Satellite Data and Neuro-Fuzzy Clustering  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather is an essential part of decision making ... amenities of any region also depend on daily weather variations. That is why short-range weather forecasting has a direct impact on the ... capacity involved in...

Mrinmoy Majumder; Tilottama Chackraborty

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

279

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

280

The long-term and the short-term at a cropping municipal sewage sludge disposal facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The City of Raleigh, NC, chose land application of municipal sewage sludge as a means of reducing pollution to the Neuse River. The Neuse River Waste Water Treatment Plant (NRWWTP) is located in the Piedmont Province of North Carolina. The soils at the facility are derived largely from the Rolesville Granite. Sewage sludge is applied to over 640 acres of cropland, owned in fee or leased. In making the policy decision for use of the sludge land application method 20 or so years ago, the City had to evaluate the potential for heavy metal accumulation in the soils and plants as well as the potential for ground-water contamination from the nitrate-nitrogen. The city also had to make a policy decision about limiting the discharge of heavy metals to the sewer system. Study of data from monitoring wells demonstrate that well position is a key in determining whether or not nitrate-nitrogen contamination is detected. Data from a three-year study suggest that nitrate-nitrogen moves fairly rapidly t the water table, although significant buildup in nitrogen-nitrogen may take a number of years. Evidence exists suggesting that the time between application of sewage sludge and an increase of nitrate-nitrogen at the water table may be on the order of nine months to a year. It is apparent that in the case of municipal sewage sludge application one can anticipate some nitrate-nitrogen buildup and that the public policy on drinking water standards must recognize this fact.

Welby, C.W. (North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences)

1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

282

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Manpower Reports and Budget Forecasts Walton 101514 10214 NA NA NA NA CD0084 Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Power and Transmission Service Invoice verification...

283

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Jul-2013 Jul-2013 1,480.0 700.0 180.0 110.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,090.1 574.8 70.9 Aug-2013 1,430.0 550.0 195.0 120.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,026.4 415.2 54.4 Sep-2013 1,270.0 320.0 165.0 110.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 899.8 196.8 30.4 Oct-2013 1,070.0 270.0 125.0 105.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 739.2 151.2 27.5 Nov-2013 1,105.0 150.0 100.0 85.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 796.6 49.4 8.6 Dec-2013 1,175.0 130.0 100.0 95.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 866.4 19.0 3.0 Jan-2014 1,155.0 140.0 100.0 95.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 847.0 29.0 4.6 Feb-2014 1,180.0 140.0 30.0 15.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 941.3 110.0 17.4 Mar-2014 1,210.0 190.0 55.0 30.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 948.3 145.3 20.6 Apr-2014 1,320.0 230.0 50.0 30.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,064.2 186.3 24.3 May-2014 1,425.0 510.0 70.0 50.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,151.1 446.1 52.1 Jun-2014

284

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Aug-2013 Aug-2013 1,586.0 523.0 167.0 89.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,210.4 419.2 46.6 Sep-2013 1,499.0 309.0 216.0 92.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,077.8 203.8 26.3 Oct-2013 1,229.0 230.0 268.0 105.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 755.2 111.2 19.8 Nov-2013 1,384.0 192.0 268.0 96.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 907.6 80.4 12.3 Dec-2013 1,470.0 165.0 344.0 119.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 917.4 30.0 4.4 Jan-2014 1,509.0 160.0 351.0 126.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 950.0 18.0 2.5 Feb-2014 1,353.0 162.0 351.0 119.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 793.3 28.0 5.2 Mar-2014 1,559.0 191.0 282.0 95.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,070.3 81.3 10.2 Apr-2014 1,558.0 312.0 147.5 52.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,204.7 246.3 28.4 May-2014 1,677.0 455.0 108.5 40.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,364.6 401.1 39.5 Jun-2014 1,740.0 525.0 162.0 78.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,372.1 434.1

285

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Jun-2013 Jun-2013 1,560.0 640.0 55.0 35.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,299.1 592.1 63.3 Jul-2013 1,465.0 690.0 125.0 70.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,130.1 604.8 71.9 Aug-2013 1,400.0 500.0 170.0 95.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,021.4 390.2 51.4 Sep-2013 1,235.0 310.0 165.0 110.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 864.8 186.8 30.0 Oct-2013 1,040.0 270.0 125.0 100.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 709.2 156.2 29.6 Nov-2013 1,145.0 150.0 100.0 85.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 836.6 49.4 8.2 Dec-2013 1,190.0 120.0 100.0 95.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 881.4 9.0 1.4 Jan-2014 1,130.0 140.0 100.0 95.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 822.0 29.0 4.7 Feb-2014 1,145.0 130.0 30.0 15.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 906.3 100.0 16.4 Mar-2014 1,185.0 190.0 55.0 25.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 923.3 150.3 21.9 Apr-2014 1,330.0 220.0 45.0 30.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,079.2 176.3 22.7 May-2014

286

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Nov-2013 Nov-2013 1,165.0 150.0 85.0 75.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 871.6 59.4 9.5 Dec-2013 1,345.0 130.0 100.0 115.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1,036.4 0.0 0.0 Jan-2014 1,100.0 120.0 100.0 115.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 792.0 0.0 0.0 Feb-2014 1,120.0 140.0 30.0 15.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 881.3 110.0 18.6 Mar-2014 1,275.0 190.0 35.0 20.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,033.3 155.3 20.2 Apr-2014 1,560.0 310.0 45.0 25.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,309.2 271.3 28.8 May-2014 1,550.0 410.0 55.0 35.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,291.1 361.1 37.6 Jun-2014 1,585.0 540.0 45.0 30.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,334.1 497.1 51.7 Jul-2014 1,470.0 500.0 115.0 65.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,145.1 419.8 49.3 Aug-2014 1,270.0 420.0 135.0 80.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 926.4 325.2 47.2 Sep-2014 1,105.0 310.0 140.0 90.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 759.8 206.8 37.8 Oct-2014

287

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Feb-2013 Feb-2013 1,165.0 260.0 105.0 75.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 851.3 170.0 29.7 Mar-2013 1,280.0 310.0 125.0 110.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 948.3 185.3 26.3 Apr-2013 1,330.0 380.0 50.0 30.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,074.2 336.3 43.5 May-2013 1,560.0 530.0 75.0 50.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,281.1 466.1 48.9 Jun-2013 1,745.0 640.0 120.0 85.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,419.1 542.1 53.1 Jul-2013 1,780.0 650.0 210.0 145.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,360.1 489.8 48.4 Aug-2013 1,670.0 500.0 190.0 135.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,271.4 350.2 37.0 Sep-2013 1,445.0 380.0 145.0 100.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,094.8 266.8 33.9 Oct-2013 1,225.0 330.0 180.0 140.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 839.2 176.2 28.2 Nov-2013 1,340.0 200.0 170.0 140.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 961.6 44.4 6.4 Dec-2013 1,255.0 180.0 130.0 105.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 916.4

288

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Mar-2013 Mar-2013 1,475.0 220.0 30.0 20.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,238.3 185.3 20.1 Apr-2013 1,400.0 380.0 45.0 30.0 23.8 13.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,149.2 336.3 40.6 May-2013 1,455.0 550.0 65.0 45.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,186.1 491.1 55.7 Jun-2013 1,650.0 610.0 100.0 65.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,344.1 532.1 55.0 Jul-2013 1,590.0 630.0 195.0 135.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,185.1 479.8 54.4 Aug-2013 1,560.0 480.0 175.0 115.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,176.4 350.2 40.0 Sep-2013 1,290.0 360.0 145.0 110.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 939.8 236.8 35.0 Oct-2013 1,090.0 290.0 170.0 140.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 714.2 136.2 25.6 Nov-2013 1,115.0 170.0 125.0 105.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 781.6 49.4 8.8 Dec-2013 1,195.0 150.0 145.0 125.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 841.4 9.0 1.4 Jan-2014 1,180.0 150.0 100.0 95.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 872.0 39.0

289

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra Nevada Region  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

May-2013 May-2013 1,460.0 520.0 95.0 55.0 21.9 13.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,161.1 451.1 52.2 Jun-2013 1,580.0 620.0 55.0 40.0 23.9 12.9 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,319.1 567.1 59.7 Jul-2013 1,510.0 730.0 160.0 105.0 27.9 15.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,140.1 609.8 71.9 Aug-2013 1,590.0 510.0 150.0 95.0 26.6 14.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,231.4 400.2 43.7 Sep-2013 1,275.0 350.0 165.0 115.0 23.2 13.2 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 904.8 221.8 34.1 Oct-2013 1,070.0 270.0 125.0 120.0 23.8 13.8 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 739.2 136.2 24.8 Nov-2013 1,090.0 160.0 105.0 100.0 26.4 15.6 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 776.6 44.4 7.9 Dec-2013 1,170.0 140.0 105.0 120.0 26.6 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 856.4 4.0 0.6 Jan-2014 1,155.0 140.0 100.0 110.0 26.0 16.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 847.0 14.0 2.2 Feb-2014 1,210.0 130.0 55.0 25.0 26.7 15.0 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 946.3 90.0 14.1 Mar-2014 1,240.0 190.0 60.0 30.0 24.7 14.7 182.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 973.3 145.3 20.1 Apr-2014

290

Monthly Energy Review - May 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

June 30, 2010 June 30, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/06) Monthly Energy Review June 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

291

Monthly Energy Review - February 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 26, 2010 February 26, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/02) Monthly Energy Review February 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

292

Monthly Energy Review - July 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

July 30, 2010 July 30, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/07) Monthly Energy Review July 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

293

Monthly Energy Review - April 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 30, 2010 April 30, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/04) Monthly Energy Review April 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

294

Monthly Energy Review - May 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 27, 2010 May 27, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/05) Monthly Energy Review May 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

295

Monthly Energy Review - March 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 31, 2010 March 31, 2010 DOE/EIA-0035(2010/03) Monthly Energy Review March 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Contacts The Monthly Energy Review is prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Integrated Energy Statistics Division, Domestic Energy Statistics Team, under the direction of Barbara T. Fichman,

296

EUROBRISA products documentation This page (http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br/) presents 1-month lead South America precipitation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

South America precipitation forecasts and verification products for three month seasons. For example surface temperatures as predictor variables for precipitation over South America. For example

297

EUROBRISA products documentation This page (http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br/) presents 1-month lead South America precipitation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

South America precipitation forecasts and verification products for three month seasons. For example Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures as predictor variables for precipitation over South America

298

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

299

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Effect of Short-Term Resuspension Events on the Oxidation of Cadmium, Lead, and Zinc Sulfide Phases in Anoxic Estuarine Sediments  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Effect of Short-Term Resuspension Events on the Oxidation of Cadmium, Lead, and Zinc Sulfide Phases in Anoxic Estuarine Sediments ... Simulated resuspension experiments were performed for periods of 0?24 h on the three unmodified sediments as well as on preparations of the model metal sulfide phases, CdS, FeS, PbS, or ZnS (70 ?mol), that were resuspended for 24 h in seawater in both the absence and the presence of each sediment (1 g dry wt). ... For experiments where the model sulfides were resuspended in seawater (24 h) in the presence of sediments or added following the resuspension of sedi ments in seawater but prior to AVS analysis, recoveries of CdS and ZnS were generally 5?13% lower than in the absence of sediment (Table 2). ...

Stuart L. Simpson; Simon C. Apte; Graeme E. Batley

2000-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

302

Modelling of long-term and short-term mechanisms of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: An object-oriented approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A mathematical model that provides an overall description of both the short- and long-term mechanisms of arterial pressure regulation is presented. Short-term control is exerted through the baroreceptor reflex while renal elimination plays a role in long-term control. Both mechanisms operate in an integrated way over the compartmental model of the cardiovascular system. The whole system was modelled in MODELICA, which uses a hierarchical object-oriented modelling strategy, under the DYMOLA simulation environment. The performance of the controlled system was analysed by simulation in light of the existing hypothesis and validation tests previously performed with physiological data, demonstrating the effectiveness of both regulation mechanisms under physiological and pathological conditions.

J. Fernandez de Canete; J. Luque; J. Barbancho; V. Munoz

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Shortterm solar effects  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...the SOHO Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) (Brueckner et al. 1995) on 14 July 2000. A coronagraph makes use of...international cooperation between ESA and NASA. References Brueckner, G. E. (and 14 others) 1995 The Large Angle Spectroscopic...

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

capacity slightly more than doubled in 2013. EIA expects that utility-scale solar capacity will about double again between the end of 2013 and the end of 2015; about two-thirds...

305

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

in customer-sited distributed generation installations, utility-scale solar capacity doubled in 2013. EIA expects that utility-scale solar capacity will increase by 96%...

306

ANNOUNCEMENT Short-Term Course  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and environmental degradation. Indiscriminate extraction and lavish consumption of fossil fuels have led, stringent regulations for fuel consumption, and exhaust emissions, including those for PM (Particulate Matter) and NOx are evolving. Under these circumstances, diesel engines would continue to be attractive

Srivastava, Kumar Vaibhav

307

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

in 2015 comes from Annex VI to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Annex VI), which is an international agreement that generally...

308

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

consumption comes from Annex VI to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Annex VI), which is an international agreement that generally...

309

Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53?gm?3 for O3, from?4.70 to?0.63?gm?3 for NO2, from?4.00 to?0.13?gm?3 for PM2.5 and from?7.70 to?0.25?gm?3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.

L.S. Neal; P. Agnew; S. Moseley; C. Ordez; N.H. Savage; M. Tilbee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Determining Long-Term Performance of Cool Storage Systems from Short-Term Tests; Literature Review and Site Selection, Nov. 1997 (Revised Feb. 1998)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the model for circumstances pertaining to conditional exante type of forecasts. 2.2 Background At the onset, one needs to distinguish between forward models and inverse models. Forward modeling describes the traditional computer simulation programs.... Another study by Jamieson and Qualmann (1990) showed an even larger difference (165%) between the predicted and measured energy savings in 16 commercial building retrofits. A common theme in these studies, as well as others of a similar nature, is the need...

Haberl, J. S.; Claridge, D. E.; Reddy, T. A.; Elleson, J.

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

312

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

313

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

314

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

315

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

316

INFRARED OBSERVATIONS OF THE MILLISECOND PULSAR BINARY J1023+0038: EVIDENCE FOR THE SHORT-TERM NATURE OF ITS INTERACTING PHASE IN 2000-2001  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We report our multi-band infrared (IR) imaging of the transitional millisecond pulsar system J1023+0038, a rare pulsar binary known to have an accretion disk in 2000-2001. The observations were carried out with ground-based and space telescopes from near-IR to far-IR wavelengths. We detected the source in near-IR JH bands and Spitzer 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m mid-IR channels. Combined with the previously reported optical spectrum of the source, the IR emission is found to arise from the companion star, with no excess emission detected in the wavelength range. Because our near-IR fluxes are nearly equal to those obtained by the 2MASS all-sky survey in 2000 February, the result indicates that the binary did not contain the accretion disk at the time, whose existence would have raised the near-IR fluxes to twice larger values. Our observations have thus established the short-term nature of the interacting phase seen in 2000-2001: the accretion disk existed for at most 2.5 yr. The binary was not detected by the WISE all-sky survey carried out in 2010 at its 12 and 22 {mu}m bands and our Herschel far-IR imaging at 70 and 160 {mu}m. Depending on the assumed properties of the dust, the resulting flux upper limits provide a constraint of <3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 22}-3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 25} g on the mass of the dust grains that possibly exist as the remnants of the previously seen accretion disk.

Wang, Xuebing; Wang, Zhongxiang [Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China)] [Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China); Morrell, Nidia [Las Campanas Observatory, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, La Serena (Chile)] [Las Campanas Observatory, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, La Serena (Chile)

2013-02-20T23:59:59.000Z

317

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Crude oil prices U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Marketing Monthly 3 December 2014...

318

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

319

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

NOAA ARL Monthly Activity Report Bruce B. Hicks, Director  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NOAA ARL Monthly Activity Report June 2004 Bruce B. Hicks, Director Air Resources Laboratory Bay 3. HIGHLIGHT ­ Air Quality Forecast System - Start of 2004 Operational Season 4. Reactions Atmosphere 7. SURFRAD/ISIS 8. Errors in Radiation Instrumentation 9. ARL Umkehr Developments Adopted 10

322

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

323

Electric Power Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Monthly > Electric Power Monthly Back Issues Electric Power Monthly > Electric Power Monthly Back Issues Electric Power Monthly Back Issues Monthly Excel files zipped 2010 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2008 January February March March Supplement April May June July August September October November December 2007 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2006 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2005 January February March April May June July August September October November December

324

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Analysis & Projections - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy Information  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Most Requested Most Requested Change category... Most Requested Annual Energy Outlook Related Congressional & Other Requests International Energy Outlook Related Presentations Short-Term Outlook Related Testimony All Reports Filter by: All Data Analysis Projections Weekly Reports Today in Energy - Projections Short, timely articles with graphs about recent analyses and projections. Monthly Reports Short-Term Energy Outlook Released: January 7, 2014 Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2013 for U.S. and International oil forecasts (archived versions) Archived Versions Short-Term Energy Outlook Feature Articles - Archive Short-Term Energy Outlook - Archive Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement Released: January 27, 2011

327

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

by almost 10%, or just over 12 million tons, to 136 million tons. This is the largest month-to-month percentage increase since at least January 2009. In absolute terms,...

328

MSC Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report AUG 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 47 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

329

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report OCT 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 49 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

330

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report DEC 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 51 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

331

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report APR 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 43 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

332

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report JUN 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 45 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

333

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report JUL 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 46 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

334

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report MAY 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 44 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

335

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report SEP 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 48 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

336

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report FEB 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 41 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

337

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Department of Energy Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728 MSC Monthly Performance Report NOV 2013 DOERL-2009-113 Rev 50 ii This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS MSC Monthly...

338

Monthly Newsblast December 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

In the December 2012 Monthly Newsblast, read about a new funding opportunity, recyling Christmas trees, upcoming events, and more.

339

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

340

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

343

Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

4.72 4.59 4.62 4.63 4.44 First Aid Monthly First Aid 12-Month Average FY 3.65 CY 3.33 EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW MSC Monthly Performance Report APR 2014 DOE...

344

Monthly Energy Review The Monthly Energy Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

use use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the MER and in other EIA publications. Related Publication: Readers of the MER may also be interested in EIA's Annual Energy Review, where many of the same data series are provided annually beginning with 1949. Contact our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for more information. Timing of Release: MER data are normally released in the afternoon of the third-from-the-last workday of each month and are usually available electronically late that day. Internet Addresses: E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov The Monthly Energy Review (ISSN 0095-7356) is published monthly by the Energy Information

345

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

346

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

347

Weather satellites and the economic value of forecasts: evidence from the electric power industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather information routinely assists in managing resources more efficiently and reducing industrial operating costs. The electric energy industry in particular makes extensive use of weather information supplied by both government and commercial suppliers. Through direct purchases of weather data and information, and through participating in the increasing market for weather derivatives, this sector provides measurable indicators of the economic importance of weather information. Space weather in the form of magnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections from the sun creates geomagnetically induced currents that disturb the electric power grid, sometimes causing significant economic impacts on electric power distribution. This paper examines the use of space-derived weather information on the U.S. electric power industry. It also explores issues that may impair the most optimum use of the information and reviews the longer-term opportunities for employing weather data acquired from satellites in future commercial and government activity.

Henry R. Hertzfeld; Ray A. Williamson; Avery Sen

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

National Cybersecurity Awareness Month  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

National Cybersecurity Awareness Month (NCSAM) October 2013 Every October, the Department of Energy joins the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and others across the country...

350

Monthly News Blast  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Multimedia Corner Monthly News Blast July 2013 Secretaries Moniz and Vilsack Speaking at Biomass 2013 Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack...

351

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

U.S. Refi ner wholesale petroleum product volumes U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Marketing Monthly 13 December 2014...

352

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

U.S. Refi ner retail petroleum product volumes U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Marketing Monthly 9 December 2014...

353

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

U.S. Refi ner retail petroleum product prices U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Marketing Monthly 7 December 2014...

354

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wholesale Markets: October 2014 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale...

355

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

See all Electricity Reports Electricity Monthly Update With Data for September 2014 | Release Date: Nov. 25, 2014 | Next Release Date: Dec. 23, 2014 Previous Issues Issue:...

356

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

See all Electricity Reports Electricity Monthly Update With Data for October 2014 | Release Date: Dec. 23, 2014 | Next Release Date: Jan. 26, 2015 Previous Issues Issue:...

357

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wholesale Markets: September 2014 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale...

358

MSC Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

month of January, ISMS Phase I activities continued, as scheduled. The Senior Management Review Board completed its evaluation on January 15, 2010, and notified MSA management...

359

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

See all Electricity Reports Electricity Monthly Update With Data for August 2014 | Release Date: Oct. 24, 2014 | Next Release Date: Nov. 24, 2014 Previous Issues Issue: October...

360

Electricity Monthly Update  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wholesale Markets: August 2014 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Wholesale Markets: February 2014 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale...

362

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

363

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

364

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

365

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

367

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Quasi-experimental study on the effectiveness of psychoanalysis, long-term and short-term psychotherapy on psychiatric symptoms, work ability and functional capacity during a 5-year follow-up  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Background Psychotherapy is apparently an insufficient treatment for some patients with mood or anxiety disorder. In this study the effectiveness of short-term and long-term psychotherapies was compared with that of psychoanalysis. Methods A total of 326 psychiatric outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomly assigned to solution-focused therapy, short-term psychodynamic and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapies. Additionally, 41 patients suitable for psychoanalysis were included in the study. The patients were followed from the start of the treatment and assessed 9 times during a 5-year follow-up. The primary outcome measures on symptoms were the Beck Depression Inventory, the Hamilton Depression and Anxiety Rating Scales, and the Symptom Check List, anxiety scale. Primary work ability and functional capacity measures were the Work Ability Index, the Work-subscale of the Social Adjustment Scale, and the Perceived Psychological Functioning Scale. Results A reduction in psychiatric symptoms and improvement in work ability and functional capacity was noted in all treatment groups during the 5-year follow-up. The short-term therapies were more effective than psychoanalysis during the first year, whereas the long-term therapy was more effective after 3years of follow-up. Psychoanalysis was most effective at the 5-year follow-up, which also marked the end of the psychoanalysis. Conclusions Psychotherapy gives faster benefits than psychoanalysis, but in the long run psychoanalysis seems to be more effective. Results from trials, among patients suitable for psychoanalysis and with longer follow-up, are needed before firm conclusions about the relative effectiveness of psychoanalysis and psychotherapy in the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders can be drawn.

Paul Knekt; Olavi Lindfors; Maarit A. Laaksonen; Camilla Renlund; Peija Haaramo; Tommi Hrknen; Esa Virtala

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

370

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

A hybrid dynamic and fuzzy time series model for mid-term power load forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A new hybrid model for forecasting the electric power load several months ahead is proposed. To allow for distinct responses from individual load sectors, this hybrid model, which combines dynamic (i.e., air temperature dependency of power load) and fuzzy time series approaches, is applied separately to the household, public, service, and industrial sectors. The hybrid model is tested using actual load data from the Seoul metropolitan area, and its predictions are compared with those from two typical dynamic models. Our investigation shows that, in the case of four-month forecasting, the proposed model gives the actual monthly power load of every sector with only less than 3% absolute error and satisfactory reduction of forecasting errors compared to other models from previous studies.

Woo-Joo Lee; Jinkyu Hong

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Petroleum Supply Monthly Archives  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Supply Monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly Archives With Data for December 2011 | Release Date: February 29, 2012 Changes to Table 26. "Production of Crude Oil by PAD District and State": Current State-level data are now included in Table 26, in addition to current U.S. and PAD District sums. State offshore production for Louisiana, Texas, Alaska, and California, which are included in the State totals, are no longer reported separately in a "State Offshore Production" category. Previously, State-level values lagged 2 months behind the U.S. and PAD District values. Beginning with this publication, they will be on the same cycle. Also included in this publication are two additional pages for Table 26 that provide October and November data. With the release of

373

Historical Monthly Energy Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

73-92) 73-92) Distribution Category UC-950 Historical Monthly Energy Review 1973-1992 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Historical Monthly Energy Review The Historical Monthly Energy Review (HMER) presents monthly and annual data from 1973 through 1992 on production, consumption, stocks, imports, exports, and prices of the principal energy commodities in the United States. Also included are data on international

374

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Information Administration, Form EIA-782A, "Refi ners'Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report." Source: U. U. U. U S. S S S S E E E Ene ne erg r r y y y In n...

375

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

U.S. Refi ner wholesale petroleum product prices Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-782A, "Refi ners'Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Product Sales...

376

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

acquisition cost for crude oil declined 3.34 (3.5 percent), to 92.27 per barrel. Petroleum products Motor gasoline * September monthly average prices for refi ner sales of...

377

ORSSAB monthly board meeting  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The ORSSAB monthly board meeting is open to the public. The board will hear a presentation and discuss the development of a comprehensive mercury strategy for the Oak Ridge Reservation.

378

Natural Gas Monthly  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Highlights activities, events, and analyses associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer related activities and underground storage data are also reported.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Disability Employment Awareness Month  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Utilizing the talents of all Americans is essential for our Nation to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world. During National Disability Employment Awareness Month, we...

380

Petroleum Marketing Monthly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

See footnotes at end of table. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Marketing Monthly 14 December 2014 Table 6. U.S. refi ner motor gasoline prices by grade and...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

MSC Monthly Performance Report  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

be completed by the end of Calendar Year 2009. EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW MSC Monthly Performance Report November 2009 DOERL-2009-113 REV 2 4 2.0 ANALYSIS OF FUNDS Table 2-1. Mission...

382

Geographic Area Month  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Fuels by PAD District and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) - Continued Geographic Area Month No. 1 Distillate No. 2 Distillate a No. 4 Fuel b Sales to End Users Sales for...

383

Black History Month  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

During National African American History Month, we pay tribute to the contributions of past generations and reaffirm our commitment to keeping the American dream alive for the next generation. In...

384

BLACK HISTORY MONTH  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Black History Month is an annual celebration of achievements by black Americans and a time for recognizing the central role of African Americans in U.S. history. The event grew out of Negro History Week, created by historian Carter G. Woodson and other prominent African Americans. Other countries around the world, including Canada and the United Kingdom, also devote a month to celebrating black history.

385

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

386

This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

on such questions, EIA publishes its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which forecasts demand, supply, and prices for U.S. energy markets, as well as the global oil...

387

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

389

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

390

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

391

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

392

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: March 2012 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: March 2012 Stocks The seasonal winter drawdown of coal stocks was totally negated during the winter months this year due to low natural gas prices and unseasonably warm temperatures throughout the continental United States. In fact, March 2012 was the seventh straight month that coal stockpiles at power plants increased from the previous month. The largest driver of increasing stockpiles has been declining consumption of coal due to unseasonably warm weather and declining natural gas prices. Because much of the coal supplied to electric generators is purchased through long-term contracts, increasing coal stockpiles have proven difficult for electric power plant operators to handle. Some operators have inventories so high that they are refusing

393

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: October 2013 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: October 2013 Stocks In October 2013, total coal stocks increased 0.8 percent from the previous month. This follows the normal seasonal pattern for this time of year as the country begins to build up coal stocks to be consumed during the winter months. Compared to last October, coal stocks decreased 17.7 percent. This occurred because coal stocks in October 2012 were at an extremely high level. Days of Burn Days of burn Coal capacity The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plant's current stockpile and past consumption patterns. The total bituminous supply decreased from 85 days the previous month to 78 days in October 2013, while the total subbituminous supply decreased from 63 days in September 2013 to

394

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

395

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

396

monthly | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

714 714 Varnish cache server Browse Upload data GDR 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2142280714 Varnish cache server monthly Dataset Summary Description The Florida Geological Survey is where data related to oil, gas, and geothermal resources for the state of Florida are made public. This dataset contains monthly oil and gas production data for January and February of 2011. The dataset is in .xls format, and displays well status, well production, and cumulative data. Source Florida Geological Survey Date Released February 28th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords data Florida gas monthly oil production Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon February 2011 oil and gas production data (xls, 33.8 KiB)

397

Monthly Energy Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May May 26, 1998 Electronic Access Monthly Energy Review (MER) data are also avail- able through these electronic means: * ASCII text, Lotus (wk1), and Excel (xls) versions of the MER tables are available through EIA's Internet homepage at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/con- tents.html * A portable document format (pdf) file of the com- plete MER including text, tables, and graphs can be downloaded via the homepage at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/multi.html * MER data series in ASCII comma delimited file format (previously available on diskettes) can be downloaded via EIA's ftp site at ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/energy.over- view/monthly.energy/current.mer * For information about the Energy Info Disc, call 1-800-STAT-USA. This CD-ROM con- tains over 200 reports, databases, and models. DOE/EIA-0035(98/05) Distribution Category UC-950 Monthly Energy Review

398

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: November 2011 Regional Wholesale Markets: November 2011 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the U.S. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

399

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

400

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: December 2011 Regional Wholesale Markets: December 2011 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the nation. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

402

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

403

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: January 2012 Regional Wholesale Markets: January 2012 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the nation. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

404

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: October 2011 Regional Wholesale Markets: October 2011 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the U.S. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

405

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: November 2011 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: November 2011 Stocks As discussed in this month's feature story, electric power sector coal stocks continued to replenish after the summer burn in November, though stockpile levels remain below 2010 and 2009 levels. All coal stockpile levels declined from November 2010, with bituminous coal stockpile levels 9 percent lower than the same month of 2010. Days of Burn Days of burn Coal capacity The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plantâ€(tm)s current stockpile and past consumption patterns. The average number of days of burn held on hand at electric power plants dropped slightly from last month and remained below levels seen in November of 2010 or 2009. While

406

Monthly Energy Statistics  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

July July 2003 E n e r g y P l u g : R e s i d e n t i a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n Cover Image: Optical glass fibers, though many times thinner than a human hair, carry vastly greater quantities of data than metallic wires, occupy less space, and are more secure. First introduced in the 1970s, high-purity optical fibers are capable of transmitting data over long distances and have replaced wires in many telecommunications, computing, and electronics applications. Timing of release: MER data are normally released in the afternoon of the third-to-last workday of each month and are usually available electronically the following day. Released for Printing: July 28, 2003 Printed with soy ink on recycled paper. Monthly Energy Review The Monthly Energy Review (MER) presents an overview of the

407

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: March 2012 Regional Wholesale Markets: March 2012 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the Nation. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

408

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

409

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: February 2012 Regional Wholesale Markets: February 2012 The United States has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the Nation. The range of daily prices and demand data is shown for the report month and for the year ending with the report month. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and two locations in the California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest

410

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

411

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

413

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

415

Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

November 2010 monthly report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

These viewgraphs are to be provided to NNSA to update the status of the B61 Life Extension Project work and activities. The viewgraphs cover such issues as budget, schedule, scope, and the like. They are part of the monthly reporting process.

Neff, Warren E [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-12-07T23:59:59.000Z

417

Monthly Energy Review  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication presents an overview of the Energy information Administration`s recent monthly energy statistics. The statistics cover the major activities of US production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, and nuclear energy. Also included are international energy and thermal and metric conversion factors. Two brief ``energy plugs`` (reviews of EIA publications) are included, as well.

NONE

1996-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

418

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

420

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

422

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

423

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

424

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (SyntetosBoylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very robust behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled On the categorisation of demand patterns published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

426

Project of the Month  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

project-of-the-month Office of Environmental project-of-the-month Office of Environmental Management 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 202-586-7709 en One-of-a-Kind Facility Now in Safe Shutdown http://energy.gov/em/articles/one-kind-facility-now-safe-shutdown One-of-a-Kind Facility Now in Safe Shutdown

427

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

428

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

429

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights: March 2012 Highlights: March 2012 Average natural gas prices at the Henry Hub declined for the eighth straight month leading to a nearly 40% increase in consumption for electricity during March 2012. The warmest March on record for much of the central U.S. drove a 5% decrease in residential retail sales when compared to March 2011. U.S. coal supplies as measured by days of burn were above 80 days for the third straight month in March as declining coal consumption drove coal stockpile increases. Key Indicators Mar 2012 % Change from Mar 2011 Total Net Generation (Thousand MWh) 309,709 -2.9% Residential Retail Price (cents/kWh) 11.76 1.5% Retail Sales (Thousand MWh) 282,453 -2.6% Heating Degree-Days 377 -36.4% Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) 2.22 -45.7% Coal Stocks

430

End of Month Working  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The level of gas in storage at the end of the last heating season (March The level of gas in storage at the end of the last heating season (March 31, 2000) was 1,150 billion cubic feet (Bcf), just above the 1995-1999 average of 1,139 Bcf. Underground working gas storage levels are currently about 8-9 percent below year-ago levels. In large part, this is because injection rates since April 1 have been below average. Storage injections picked up recently due to warm weather in the last half of October. The month of November is generally the last month available in the year for injections into storage. A cold November would curtail net injections into storage. If net injections continue at average levels this winter, we project that storage levels will be low all winter, reaching a level of 818 Bcf at the end of March, the lowest level since 1996

431

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2012 | Release Date: May 29, 2012 | Next March 2012 | Release Date: May 29, 2012 | Next Release Date: June 26, 2012 | Re-Release Date: November 28, 2012 (correction) Previous Issues Issue: November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 Previous issues Format: html xls Go Highlights: March 2012 Average natural gas prices at the Henry Hub declined for the eighth straight month leading to a nearly 40% increase in consumption for electricity during March 2012. The warmest March on record for much of the central U.S. drove a 5% decrease in residential retail sales when compared to March 2011. U.S. coal supplies as measured by days of burn were above 80 days for the third straight month in March as declining coal consumption drove

432

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

433

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: February 2012 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: February 2012 Stocks The unseasonably warm temperatures that the continental United States experienced throughout the winter, coupled with low natural gas prices, caused coal stocks at power plants to increase throughout the winter of 2011 - 2012. During this period, coal stocks usually see a seasonal decline due to the added need for electricity generation from coal plants for spacing heating load. However, it was the sixth straight month that coal stocks increased from the previous month, with this trend likely to continue as the country enters into spring. Days of Burn Days of burn Coal capacity The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plant's current

434

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

435

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

436

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

437

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

438

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Regional Wholesale Markets: September 2011 Regional Wholesale Markets: September 2011 The United States. has many regional wholesale electricity markets. Below we look at monthly and annual ranges of on-peak, daily wholesale prices at selected pricing locations and daily peak demand for selected electricity systems in the U.S. The range of daily price and demand data is shown for the month of September 2011 and for the year ending on September 30, 2011. Prices and demand are shown for six Regional Transmission Operator (RTO) markets: ISO New England (ISO-NE), New York ISO (NYISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Midwest ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and California ISO (CAISO). Also shown are wholesale prices at trading hubs in Louisiana (into Entergy), Southwest (Palo Verde) and

439

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

440

Monthly Energy Review  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December December 23, 1997 Electronic Access Monthly Energy Review (MER) data are also available through these electronic means: * ASCII text, Lotus (wk1), and Excel (xls) versions of the MER tables are available through EIA's Internet homepage at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html * A portable document format (pdf) file of the complete MER including text, tables, and graphs can be downloaded via the homepage at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/multi.html * MER data series in ASCII comma delimited file format (previously available on diskettes) can be downloaded via EIA's ftp site at ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/energy.overview/monthly .energy/current.mer * For information about the Energy Info Disc, call 1-800-STAT-USA. This CD-ROM contains over 200 reports, databases, and models. Timing of Release: MER data are normally released in the afternoon of the third-from-the-last

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Petroleum Marketing Monthly Archives  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Marketing Monthly Archives Petroleum Marketing Monthly Archives Choose the year of the Petroleum Marketing Monthly you wish to view. + EXPAND ALL 2014-2015 2014 2015 Data ending January 10/2013 2012-2013 2012 2013 Data ending January 10/2011 January 10/2012 February 11/2011 February 11/2012 March 12/2011 March 12/2012 April 1/2012 April 1/2013 May 2/2012 May 2/2013 June 3/2012 June 3/2013 July 4/2012 July 4/2013 August 5/2012 August 5/2013 September 6/2012 September 6/2013 October 7/2012 October 7/2013 November 8/2012 November 8/2013 December 9/2012 December 9/2013 2010 - 2011 2010 2011 Data ending Data ending January 10/2009 January 10/2010 February 11/2009 February 11/2010 March 12/2009 March 12/2010 April 1/2010 April 1/2011 May 2/2010 May 2/2011

442

Monthly News Blast: February 2013  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

In the February 2013 Monthly News Blast, read about recent blog posts, the monthly staff spotlight video, upcoming events, and more.

443

Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two- transport models (CTMs) that represent physical and chemical processes controlling ozone concentrations

Menut, Laurent

444

Monthly Energy Review - June 2008  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Monthly Publications: Other monthly EIA reports are Petroleum Supply Monthly Publications: Other monthly EIA reports are Petroleum Supply Monthly, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly, Electric Power Monthly, and Inter- national Petroleum Monthly. For more information, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or InfoCtr@eia.doe.gov. Electronic Access The MER is available on EIA's Web site in a variety of formats at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/mer. Complete MER, and individual MER sections: Portable Document Format (PDF) files. Individual table and graph pages: PDF files. Data files for individual tables: Excel (XLS) files and ASCII comma-delimited (CSV) files. Note: PDF files display selected annual and monthly data. Excel and CSV files display all avail- able annual and monthly data, often at a greater level of precision than the PDF files.

445

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 February 2012 Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Supply Monthly, ii December 2011 EIA DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORM All current EIA publications are available on the EIA web site. Users can view and download selected pages or entire reports, search for information, download EIA data and analysis applications, and find out about new EIA information products and services: World Wide Web: http://www.eia.doe.gov FTP: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov Customers who do not have access to the Internet may call the National Energy Information Center (NEIC) to request a single print-

446

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

With Data for September 2013 With Data for September 2013 November 2013 Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Supply Monthly, ii September 2013 EIA DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORM All current EIA publications are available on the EIA web site. Users can view and download selected pages or entire reports, search for information, download EIA data and analysis applications, and find out about new EIA information products and services: World Wide Web: http://www.eia.doe.gov FTP: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov Customers who do not have access to the Internet may call the National Energy Information Center (NEIC) to request a single print-

447

Petroleum marketing monthly  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) is designed to give information and statistical data about a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication provides statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Sales data for motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane are presented.

Not Available

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

APPLICATION FORM Short term course on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur Kanpur208016 Phone : +91(512)2597945 / 2597253 Fax : +91 Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur #12;WORKSHOP OBJECTIVE ACES course is designed to familiarize differential equations; Classification of errors. 5) Methods for solving elliptical PDEs. Point

Srivastava, Kumar Vaibhav

450

Short-Term Farm Credit in Texas.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.. 27.1 ............................................... For automob~les.. 7.8 For other purposes. ............................................. 4.5 Production: 1 60.6 A noticeable feature of this table is the relatively high percentage of loans...

Lee, Virgil P.

1927-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Short-term pilot cooling tower tests  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Two major problems are associated with the use of cooled geothermal water as coolant for the 5 MW(e) pilot plant at Raft River. They are: (1) a scaling potential owing to the chemical species present in solution, and (2) the corrosive nature of the geothermal water. Tests were conducted to obtain data so that methods can be devised to either reduce or eliminate effects from these problems. Data show that scaling can be prevented, but only by using a high concentration of dispersant. Pitting data, however, are not as conclusive and seem to indicate that pitting control cannot be realized, but this result cannot be substantiated without additional experimentation. Results also demonstrate that chromate can be removed by using either chemical destruction or ion exchange. Whichever method is used, EPA discharge limits for both chromate and zinc can be achieved. A preliminary economic analysis is presented.

Suciu, D.F.; Miller, R.L.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Short term accommodation and Bed and Breakfasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

hotels in central London. *Premier Inn County Hall Belvedere Road London SE1 7PB Website: http.indianymca.org Journey's ­ Kings Cross 54 ­ 58 Caledonian Road Kings Cross London N1 9DP Tel: 020 7833 3893 http.dovercastlehostel.com Ashlee House 261 ­ 265 Grays Inn Road Kings Cross London WC1X 8QT Tel: 020 7833 9400 Fax: 020 7833 9677

Kühn, Reimer

453

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2013  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

the 2014 renewable fuel standards are identical to those for 2013. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions. EIA estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels...

454

Comfort control for short-term occupancy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to a thermostat-controlled fan-coil unit i n each room. TheThe t y p i c a l fan-coil and w a l l units are i n this

Fountain, M.; Brager, G. S.; Arens, Edward A; Bauman, Fred; Benton, C.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Umea University Education Short-Term Program  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

refrigerators, freezers and kitchen utensils that you can share. The housing with IHO includes: · Private room

Viglas, Anastasios

456

Short-Term Prediction of Lagrangian Trajectories  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagrangian particles in a cluster are divided in two groups: observable and unobservable. The problem is to predict the unobservable particle positions given their initial positions and velocities based on observations of the observable ...

Leonid I. Piterbarg

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

QIP Short Term Course Application of Renewable  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

mitigation and credit · PV modules/arrays · Batteries · Hybrid systems (wind, hydro etc.) · Life cycle cost Delhi - 110016, India Course contents · Fundamentals of solar radiation · Solar cell material · CO2

Kumar, M. Jagadesh

458

Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by the U.S. Supreme Court reversing a lower court opinion that vacated the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR). CSAPR will replace the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The...

459

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

460

Data transforms with exponential smoothing methods of forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, transforms are used with exponential smoothing, in the quest for better forecasts. Two types of transforms are explored: those which are applied to a time series directly, and those which are applied indirectly to the prediction errors. The various transforms are tested on a large number of time series from the M3 competition, and ANOVA is applied to the results. We find that the non-transformed time series is significantly worse than some transforms on the monthly data, and on a distribution-based performance measure for both annual and quarterly data.

Adrian N. Beaumont

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

January 2012 | Release Date: Mar. 27, January 2012 | Release Date: Mar. 27, 2012 | Next Release Date: Apr. 27, 2012 | Re-Release Date: November 28, 2012 (correction) Previous Issues Issue: November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 Previous issues Format: html xls Go Highlights: January 2012 Warm temperatures across much of the U.S. led to lower retail sales of electricity during January 2012. Coal-fired generation decreased in every region of the United States when compared to January 2011. Coal stocks recovered due to decreased consumption this January compared to the same month of 2011. Key Indicators Jan 2012 % Change from Jan. 2011 Total Net Generation (Thousand MWh) 340,743 -6.4%

462

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights: January 2012 Highlights: January 2012 Warm temperatures across much of the U.S. led to lower retail sales of electricity during January 2012. Coal-fired generation decreased in every region of the United States when compared to January 2011. Coal stocks recovered due to decreased consumption this January compared to the same month of 2011. Key Indicators Jan 2012 % Change from Jan. 2011 Total Net Generation (Thousand MWh) 340,743 -6.4% Residential Retail Price (cents/kWh) 11.43 4.4% Retail Sales (Thousand MWh) 310,859 -6.5% Heating Degree-Days 751 -21.4% Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) 2.75 -40.3% Coal Stocks (Thousand Tons) 181,621 10.2% Coal Consumption (Thousand Tons) 70,595 -21.7% Natural Gas Consumption (Mcf) 676,045 19.9% Nuclear Outages (MW) 9,567 2.1%

463

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: December 2011 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: December 2011 Stocks Temperate weather throughout the fall has allowed electric power sector coal stocks to replenish from the summer burn. All coal stockpile levels were essentially flat when compared to December 2010 and were a mostly up year-to-date. Days of Burn Days of burn Coal capacity The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plantâ€(tm)s current stockpile and past consumption patterns. The average number of days of burn held on hand at electric power plants was essentially flat compared to last month and remained below levels seen in December of 2010 or 2009. While stockpile levels have recovered from summer lows, the increasing

464

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

August 2011 | Release Date: October 25, August 2011 | Release Date: October 25, 2011 | Next Release Date: November 21, 2011 Previous Issues Issue: November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 Previous issues Format: html xls Go Highlights: August 2011 Extreme heat in Texas, New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona drove significant increases in the retail sales of electricity in the Southwest. Wind generation increased in much of the United States, except the middle of the country where total generation declined. Bituminous coal stocks dropped 14% from August 2010. Key indicators Same Month 2010 Year to date Total Net Generation -1% 11% Residential Retail Price -6% 11% Cooling Degree-Days -3% 2%

465

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Stocks: August 2011 Coal Stocks: August 2011 Stocks Coal stocks continued the usual summer decline as utilities burned into their summer stockpile in August. Sigificant declines from August 2010 were seen in total coal stockpiles, driven by a 14 percent drop in bituminous coal stockpiles as well as a 10 percent drop in subbituminous coal stockpiles. Lignite stockpiles declined by 6 percent over the same time period. Days of burn The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plant's current stockpile and past consumption patterns. The average number of days of burn held on hand at electric power plants increased slightly in August 2011 compared to previous months. This was largely driven by increases in

466

March Natural Gas Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

'PGTI[+PHQTOCVKQP#FOKPKUVTCVKQP0CVWTCN)CU/QPVJN[/CTEJ 'PGTI[+PHQTOCVKQP#FOKPKUVTCVKQP0CVWTCN)CU/QPVJN[/CTEJ EIA Corrects Errors in Its Drilling Activity Estimates Series William Trapmann and Phil Shambaugh Introduction The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published monthly and annual estimates of oil and gas drilling activity since 1978. These data are key information for many industry analysts, serving as a leading indicator of trends in the industry and a barometer of general industry status. They are assessed directly for trends, as well as in combination with other measures to assess the productivity and profitability of upstream industry operations. They are a major reference point for policymakers at both the Federal and State level. Users in the private sector include financial

467

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: September 2011 Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks: September 2011 Stocks Electric power sector coal stocks continued to replenish after the summer burn in October, though stockpile levels remain well below 2010 levels. All coal stockpile levels declined from October 2010, with bituminous coal stockpile levels 12 percent lower than the same month of 2010. Days of Burn Days of burn Coal capacity The average number of days of burn held at electric power plants is a forward looking estimate of coal supply given a power plant's current stockpile and past consumption patterns. The average number of days of burn held on hand at electric power plants was generally flat in October 2011 compared to September of this year. The summer of 2011 saw significant declines in total U.S. stockpile levels, which were replenished in the

468

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Reports Electricity Reports Electricity Monthly Update With Data for October 2013 | Release Date: Dec. 20, 2013 | Next Release Date: Jan. 22, 2014 Previous Issues Issue: November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 Previous issues Format: html xls Go Highlights: October 2013 Thirty-one states saw the average cost of electricity increase by more than two percent, with fourteen states experiencing increases of at least five percent compared to a year ago. Texas (ERCOT) and the Midwest (MISO) experienced above average wholesale electricity prices for October due to unseasonable temperatures. The New York City (Transco Zone 6 NY) natural gas price was

469

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights: August 2011 Highlights: August 2011 Extreme heat in Texas, New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona drove significant increases in the retail sales of electricity in the Southwest. Wind generation increased in much of the United States, except the middle of the country where total generation declined. Bituminous coal stocks dropped 14% from August 2010. Key indicators Same Month 2010 Year to date Total Net Generation -1% 11% Residential Retail Price -6% 11% Cooling Degree-Days -3% 2% Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub -6% -9% Bituminous Coal Stocks -14% -14% Subbituminous Coal Stocks -10% -17% Heat wave drives record demand and wholesale prices in Texas A prolonged August heat wave in Texas stressed available generating capacity and produced very high wholesale prices in the Electric

470

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 17-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

474

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

475

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

476

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

477

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

478

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

479

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

480

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "monthly short-term forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Monthly Energy Review - January 2007  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

publications: Other monthly EIA reports are Petroleum Supply Monthly, Petroleum publications: Other monthly EIA reports are Petroleum Supply Monthly, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly, Electric Power Monthly, and International Petroleum Monthly. Readers of the MER may also be interested in EIA's Annual Energy Review, where many of the same data series are provided annually beginning with 1949. For more information, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or InfoCtr@eia.doe.gov. Electronic Access The MER is available on EIA's Web site in a variety of formats at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/mer. Complete MER, and individual MER sections: Portable Document Format (PDF) files. Individual table and graph pages: PDF files. Data files for individual tables: Excel (XLS) files and ASCII comma-delimited (CSV) files.

482

National Safety Month- June 2013  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

National Safety Month is recognized by employers, employees, and safety and health professionals throughout the country. During the month of June, HSS provided information, activities, and events pertaining to weekly themes.

483

Monthly News Blast: March 2013  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

In the March 2013 Monthly News Blast, read about two upcoming webinars, two recently announced BETO events, recent blog posts, the monthly staff spotlight video, upcoming events, and more.

484

Monthly Project Bulletin: July 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of July 2012.

485

Monthly Project Bulletin: August 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of August 2012.

486

Monthly Project Bulletin: October 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of September 2012.

487

Monthly Project Bulletin: April 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of April 2012.

488

Monthly Project Bulletin: June 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of June 2012.

489

Monthly Project Bulletin: May 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of May 2012.

490

Monthly Project Bulletin: September 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document contains the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Project bulletin for the month of September 2012.

491

April 2013 Monthly News Blast  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The monthly news blast for April 2013 highlights the Project Peer Review, upcoming events, BETO blog posts, and more.

492

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

494

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

495

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

496

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

497

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

498

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Jos V. Segura

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

500

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z