National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for module tran forecasts

  1. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices....

  2. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  3. Portal Status Update TransPort Meeting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertini, Robert L.

    + Portal Status Update TransPort Meeting 6-11-14 #12;+ TRANSIT #12;+ Accomplishments - Transit Module) feed loading in Portal DB ! Compass rewrite in progress ! Modernized codebase allows for faster version of Portal map ! Allows for a Portal map to be embedded on other sites ! Automated import of Clark

  4. Trans-Blot Electrophoretic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kirschner, Marc W.

    Trans-Blot® SD Semi-Dry Electrophoretic Transfer Cell Instruction Manual Catalog Number 170 cleaner (such as Bio-Rad Cleaning Concentrate, catalog number 161-0722) and rinsed thoroughly with distilled water, before use. Warranty Bio-Rad Laboratories warrants the Trans-Blot SD semi

  5. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  6. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  7. Renewable Fuels Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

  8. Mini Trans-Blot Electrophoretic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raizada, Manish N.

    Mini Trans-Blot® Electrophoretic Transfer Cell Instruction Manual Catalog Numbers 170-3930 170 be cleaned with a suitable laboratory cleaner (such as Bio-Rad Cleaning Concentrate, catalog number 161-0722) and rinsed thoroughly with distilled water, before use. Warranty Bio-Rad Laboratories warrants the Mini Trans

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  11. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  12. Relating theories of actions and reactive control Chitta Baral and Tran Cao Son

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baral, Chitta

    Relating theories of actions and reactive control Chitta Baral and Tran Cao Son Department In this paper 1 we give a formal characterization of reactive control using ac­ tion theories. In the process we provenly correct control modules. We then extend our approach to action theories and control modules

  13. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  14. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  15. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  16. Epoxidation of the methamphetamine pyrolysis product, trans-phenylpropene, to trans-phenylpropylene oxide by CYP

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Epoxidation of the methamphetamine pyrolysis product, trans-phenylpropene, to trans; Methamphetamine; Pyrolysis Introduction Methamphetamine hydrochloride is a popular illicit drug that is abused

  17. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  18. Trans Mountain Response to SFU IR No. 2 Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kavanagh, Karen L.

    Trans Mountain Response to SFU IR No. 2 Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC Trans Mountain Expansion Terminal as well as key civil tasks. Request: (1) Please advise whether Trans Mountain has investigated Way and Burnaby Mountain Parkway either during normal operation of the tank farm, or in the event

  19. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  20. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  1. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  2. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  3. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  5. Module Handbook Module title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Students learn about selected topics from inorganic chemistry, biochemistry, materials chemistryModule Handbook Module title Module title in English Credits Degree of compulsion Level Learning Theory of Functional Materials 6 Compulsory Basic A systematic foundation for quantum physics

  6. Received 17 Oct 2014 | Accepted 6 Mar 2015 | Published 21 Apr 2015 Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu

    ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show and energy sectors worldwide. Climate predictions may exhibit enhanced skill on timescales of years-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability Yoshimitsu Chikamoto1, Axel Timmermann1,2, Jing

  7. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  8. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  9. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  10. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  11. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  12. Cluster formation probability in the trans-tin and trans-lead nuclei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    K. P. Santhosh; R. K. Biju; Sabina Sahadevan

    2010-05-10

    Within our fission model, the Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM) cluster formation probabilities are calculated for different clusters ranging from carbon to silicon for the parents in the trans-tin and trans- lead regions. It is found that in trans-tin region the 12^C, 16^O, 20^Ne and 24^Mg clusters have maximum cluster formation probability and lowest half lives as compared to other clusters. In trans-lead region the 14^C, 18, 20^O, 23^F, 24,26^Ne, 28,30^Mg and 34^Si clusters have the maximum cluster formation probability and minimum half life, which show that alpha like clusters are most probable for emission from trans-tin region while non-alpha clusters are probable from trans-lead region. These results stress the role of neutron proton symmetry and asymmetry of daughter nuclei in these two cases.

  13. Opportunistic infrastructure : the Trans-Manhattan Expressway

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Koren, Jason F

    2010-01-01

    Urban Infrastructure: bridges, expressways, and on and off ramps often create barriers and uninhabitable spaces within the urban context. This phenomenon is evident in northern Manhattan where the Trans-Manhattan Expressway ...

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  16. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  17. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  18. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  19. TransWest | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EISTJThin Film SolarTown of Skiatook,1993)Trane JumpTransCanadaTransWest

  20. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  1. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  2. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  3. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  4. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  5. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  6. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  7. EIS-0139: Trans-Alaska Gas System

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EIS analyzes the Yukon Pacific Corporation's proposed construction of the Trans-Alaska Gas System (TAGS), a 796.5-mile long, 36-inch diameter pipeline to transport high-pressured natural gas between Prudhoe Bay and a tidewater terminal and liquefied natural gas plant near Anderson Bay, Alaska.

  8. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  9. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  10. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergy AEnergy Managing SwimmingMicrosoft Word1 2 - 2

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  12. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  13. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  14. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  15. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  16. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  17. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  18. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  19. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  1. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  2. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  3. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  5. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  6. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  7. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  8. Module Configuration

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Oweis, Salah (Ellicott City, MD); D'Ussel, Louis (Bordeaux, FR); Chagnon, Guy (Cockeysville, MD); Zuhowski, Michael (Annapolis, MD); Sack, Tim (Cockeysville, MD); Laucournet, Gaullume (Paris, FR); Jackson, Edward J. (Taneytown, MD)

    2002-06-04

    A stand alone battery module including: (a) a mechanical configuration; (b) a thermal management configuration; (c) an electrical connection configuration; and (d) an electronics configuration. Such a module is fully interchangeable in a battery pack assembly, mechanically, from the thermal management point of view, and electrically. With the same hardware, the module can accommodate different cell sizes and, therefore, can easily have different capacities. The module structure is designed to accommodate the electronics monitoring, protection, and printed wiring assembly boards (PWAs), as well as to allow airflow through the module. A plurality of modules may easily be connected together to form a battery pack. The parts of the module are designed to facilitate their manufacture and assembly.

  9. TransForum | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired Solar FuelTechnologyTel:FebruaryEIA'sTraining WorksheetTransForum

  10. TransWest Old | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, searchTransCanada PowerOld Jump to:

  11. TransAtlantic Petroleum | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EISTJThin Film SolarTown of Skiatook,1993)Trane Jump to:TransAtlantic

  12. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  13. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  14. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  15. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  16. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  17. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  19. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  20. New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shippingNew Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury Laurence C. Smith1 and Scott R. Stephenson changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we

  1. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  2. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  3. Preparation and Characterization of Chitosan-Alginate Nanoparticles for Trans-Cinnamaldehyde Entrapment 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loquercio, Andre S

    2014-11-04

    Trans-cinnamaldehyde incorporated chitosan and alginate nanoparticles were synthesized using the ionic gelation and polyelectrolyte complexation technique. Alginate, chitosan, calcium chloride, and trans-cinnamaldehyde at predetermined...

  4. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  5. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  6. A Java Reinforcement Learning Module for the Recursive Porous

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    A Java Reinforcement Learning Module for the Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit Facilitating Evaluation of free java-libraries for social- scientific agent based simulation, Tobias and Hoffman, 2004 in Repast Genetic Algorithm demo model OpenForecast demo model Java Object Oriented Neural Engine (JOONE

  7. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-08

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  8. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  9. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  10. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  11. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  12. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  13. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  14. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  20. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  1. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  2. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  3. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  4. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  5. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  6. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  7. Climate change and trans-local solidarities Paul Routledge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guo, Zaoyang

    Climate change and trans-local solidarities Paul Routledge Paul.Routledge@ges.gla.ac.uk This project will consider local responses and adaptations to climate change across a range of different sites

  8. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  9. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  10. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  11. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  12. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  13. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  14. Thermionic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    King, Donald B. (Albuquerque, NM); Sadwick, Laurence P. (Salt Lake City, UT); Wernsman, Bernard R. (Clairton, PA)

    2002-06-18

    Modules of assembled microminiature thermionic converters (MTCs) having high energy-conversion efficiencies and variable operating temperatures manufactured using MEMS manufacturing techniques including chemical vapor deposition. The MTCs incorporate cathode to anode spacing of about 1 micron or less and use cathode and anode materials having work functions ranging from about 1 eV to about 3 eV. The MTCs also exhibit maximum efficiencies of just under 30%, and thousands of the devices and modules can be fabricated at modest costs.

  15. Module No: 420244International Humanitarian Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 420244International Humanitarian law Module Title: Co-requisite:public international law 1Pre-requisite: Module Type: specialization requirementModule level: Second year Evening Study-mailOffice Number Office Phone Academic rank Instructor Name E-mailOffice Number Office Phone Academic rank Module

  16. module.h

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /* OS-9 module header definitions */ /* Executable memory module */ typedef struct { unsigned m_sync, /* sync bytes ($87cd) */ m_size, /* module size ...

  17. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  18. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  19. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  20. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  1. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  2. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  3. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  4. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  7. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  8. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  9. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  10. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  11. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  12. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  13. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  14. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  15. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  16. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  17. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  18. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  19. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  20. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  1. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  2. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  3. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  4. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  6. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  7. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  8. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  9. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  10. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  11. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  12. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  13. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  14. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  15. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  16. Thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kortier, William E. (Columbus, OH); Mueller, John J. (Columbus, OH); Eggers, Philip E. (Columbus, OH)

    1980-07-08

    A thermoelectric module containing lead telluride as the thermoelectric mrial is encapsulated as tightly as possible in a stainless steel canister to provide minimum void volume in the canister. The lead telluride thermoelectric elements are pressure-contacted to a tungsten hot strap and metallurgically bonded at the cold junction to iron shoes with a barrier layer of tin telluride between the iron shoe and the p-type lead telluride element.

  17. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  18. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  19. After runaway: The trans-Hill stage of planetesimal growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lithwick, Yoram [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA and Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA), Evanston, IL 60208 (United States)

    2014-01-01

    When planetesimals begin to grow by coagulation, they first enter an epoch of runaway, during which the biggest bodies grow faster than all the others. The questions of how runaway ends and what comes next have not been answered satisfactorily. We show that runaway is followed by a new stage—the 'trans-Hill stage'—that commences when the bodies that dominate viscous stirring ('big bodies') become trans-Hill, i.e., when their Hill velocity matches the random speed of the small bodies they accrete. Subsequently, the small bodies' random speed grows in lockstep with the big bodies' sizes, such that the system remains in the trans-Hill state. Trans-Hill growth is crucial for determining the efficiency of growing big bodies, as well as their growth timescale and size spectrum. Trans-Hill growth has two sub-stages. In the earlier one, which occurs while the stirring bodies remain sufficiently small, the evolution is collisionless, i.e., collisional cooling among all bodies is irrelevant. The efficiency of forming big bodies in this collisionless sub-stage is very low, ?10? << 1, where ? ? 0.005(a/AU){sup –1} is the ratio between the physical size of a body and its Hill radius. Furthermore, the size spectrum is flat (equal mass per size decade, i.e., q = 4). This collisionless trans-Hill solution explains results from previous coagulation simulations for both the Kuiper Belt and the asteroid belt. The second trans-Hill sub-stage commences once the stirring bodies grow big enough (>?{sup –1} × the size of the accreted small bodies). After that time, collisional cooling among small bodies controls the evolution. The efficiency of forming big bodies rises and the size spectrum becomes more top heavy. Trans-Hill growth can terminate in one of two ways, depending on the sizes of the small bodies. First, mutual accretion of big bodies can become significant and conglomeration proceeds until half of the total mass is converted into big bodies. This mode of growth may explain the observed size distributions of small bodies in the solar system and is explored in our subsequent work. Second, if the big bodies' orbits become separated by their Hill radius, oligarchy commences. This mode likely precedes the formation of fully fledged planets.

  20. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  1. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Lenox, Carl J. S.; Culligan, Matthew; Danning, Matt

    2013-08-27

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame, The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  2. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Lenox, Carl J. S. (Oakland, CA); Culligan, Matthew (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2012-07-17

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame. The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  3. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  4. Vinylboranes as trans-dihydroxyethylene equivalents in Diels-Alder reactions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Redman, Aniko Maria

    1993-01-01

    Novel vinylborane-based trans-dihydroxyethylene equivalents were developed for the synthesis of trans-cyclohexenediol derivatives. The synthetic utility of the new dienophiles was demonstrated by their Diels-Alder reaction ...

  5. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2038 , 1677-16953652007Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ; hydrocarbon; 2-methyl-1,3-butadiene; air pollution; net primary productivity Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007) 365

  6. Status of TRANStatus of TRAN Presented at AP

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Budny, Robert

    Status of TRANStatus of TRAN Presented at AP NovemberNovember Supported by U.S. DOE Contrac NSP history production facilities and supporting so h i d d l t Th jphysics code development. The majo free run compared to 2010. · There was an order of magnitude i using the parallel nubeam fast ion · Does

  7. Composite Web Services Kung-Kiu Lau and Cuong Tran

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lau, Kung-Kiu

    Composite Web Services Kung-Kiu Lau and Cuong Tran Keywords. Web service, composite service, service composition, component model. Abstract. Currently, composition of web services is done of entire web services. In this paper we propose a different approach to web service composition, whereby

  8. EnTRAnCE AWARDS AGBIO Renewable Entrance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peak, Derek

    EnTRAnCE AWARDS AGBIO Renewable Entrance Scholarships Benjamin Dietrich, Moosomin Logan Pizzey Megan Hodges, Dalmeny COnTInUInG STUDEnT AWARDS AGBIO Renewable Entrance Scholarships, Second Year Tracy Smith, Radisson AGBIO Renewable Entrance Scholarships, Third Year Melanie Hawrysh, Borden Kathryn Stolle

  9. Graphene as a subnanometre trans-electrode , W. Hubbard2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golovchenko, Jene A.

    #12;LETTERS Graphene as a subnanometre trans-electrode membrane S. Garaj1 , W. Hubbard2 , A. Reina3 of graphite, called graphene, have recently been the subject of intense research with the hope that practical and elec- trical sensitivity of graphene motivated us to investigate the poten- tial use of graphene

  10. S0S1 transition of trans--methyl styrene: Vibronic structure and dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haas, Yehuda

    S0S1 transition of trans- -methyl styrene: Vibronic structure and dynamics Y. Haas, S. Kendler, E; accepted 28 March 1995 The fluorescence excitation and emission spectra of trans- -methyl styrene have been of styrene and of trans- -methyl styrene BMS is reported. The BMS molecule is calculated to be essentially

  11. The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S. [University of Athens, Physics Department, Section of Nuclear and Particle Physics, Zografos 15771 Athens (Greece); Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V. [IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, 1420092 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-08-25

    The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

  12. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  13. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  14. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  15. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  16. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  19. Supported PV module assembly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mascolo, Gianluigi; Taggart, David F.; Botkin, Jonathan D.; Edgett, Christopher S.

    2013-10-15

    A supported PV assembly may include a PV module comprising a PV panel and PV module supports including module supports having a support surface supporting the module, a module registration member engaging the PV module to properly position the PV module on the module support, and a mounting element. In some embodiments the PV module registration members engage only the external surfaces of the PV modules at the corners. In some embodiments the assembly includes a wind deflector with ballast secured to a least one of the PV module supports and the wind deflector. An array of the assemblies can be secured to one another at their corners to prevent horizontal separation of the adjacent corners while permitting the PV modules to flex relative to one another so to permit the array of PV modules to follow a contour of the support surface.

  20. Module Embedding Atanas Radenski

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Radenski, Atanas

    Module Embedding 1 Atanas Radenski Computer Science Department UNC-WSSU, P. O. Box 19479 Winston module embedding that enables the building of new modules from existing ones through inheritance for this mechanism. Module embedding is beneficial when modules and classes are used in combination and need

  1. Working with Modules within Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Modules within Python The EnvironmentModules python package gives access to the module system from within python. The EnvironmentModules python package has a single...

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  3. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  5. Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Haiyan

    Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module Summary: Students Weather Service-- National Weather Hazards Website: http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php --This termforecasts in the lower 48 USstates. Definitions Forecast--The prediction of what the weather

  6. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  8. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  9. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  10. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  11. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  12. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  13. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  14. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  15. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  16. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  17. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  18. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  19. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  1. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  2. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  3. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  4. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  5. Ballasted photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2011-11-29

    A photovoltaic (PV) module assembly including a PV module and a ballast tray. The PV module includes a PV device and a frame. A PV laminate is assembled to the frame, and the frame includes an arm. The ballast tray is adapted for containing ballast and is removably associated with the PV module in a ballasting state where the tray is vertically under the PV laminate and vertically over the arm to impede overt displacement of the PV module. The PV module assembly can be installed to a flat commercial rooftop, with the PV module and the ballast tray both resting upon the rooftop. In some embodiments, the ballasting state includes corresponding surfaces of the arm and the tray being spaced from one another under normal (low or no wind) conditions, such that the frame is not continuously subjected to a weight of the tray.

  6. Shield Module Design Considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    Shield Module Design Considerations Adam Carroll Van Graves July 3, 2014 #12;2 Managed by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy Shield Module Design Considerations 3 July 2014 Overview · Capability to remotely remove and reinstall the shield modules is required · Shield module concept is He-cooled tungsten

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  9. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  10. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  11. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  12. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  13. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  14. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  15. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  16. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  17. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  18. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  19. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  20. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  2. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  3. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  4. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  5. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  6. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  7. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  8. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  9. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  10. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  11. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  12. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  14. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  17. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  18. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  20. Epoxidation of the methamphetamine pyrolysis product, trans-phenylpropene, to trans-phenylpropylene oxide by CYP enzymes and stereoselective glutathione adduct formation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sanga, Madhu [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Younis, Islam R. [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Tirumalai, Padma S. [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Bland, Tina M. [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Banaszewska, Monica [Department of Neurobiology and Anatomy, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Konat, Gregory W. [Department of Neurobiology and Anatomy, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Tracy, Timothy S. [Department of Experimental and Clinical Pharmacology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Gannett, Peter M. [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Callery, Patrick S. [Department of Basic Pharmaceutical Sciences, West Virginia University, 1 Medical Center Drive, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States)]. E-mail: pcallery@hsc.wvu.edu

    2006-03-01

    Pyrolytic products of smoked methamphetamine hydrochloride are well established. Among the various degradation products formed, trans-phenylpropene (trans-{beta}-methylstyrene) is structurally similar to styrene analogues known to be bioactivated by CYP enzymes. In human liver microsomes, trans-phenylpropene was converted to the epoxide trans-phenylpropylene oxide (trans-2-methyl-3-phenyloxirane) and cinnamyl alcohol. Incubation of trans-phenylpropene with microsomes in the presence of enzyme-specific P450 enzyme inhibitors indicated the involvement of CYP2E1, CYP1A2, and CYP3A4 enzymes. Both (R,R)-phenylpropylene oxide and (S,S)-phenylpropylene oxide were formed in human liver microsomal preparations. Enantiomers of trans-phenylpropylene oxide were stereoselectively and regioselectively conjugated in a Phase II drug metabolism reaction catalyzed by human liver cytosolic enzymes consisting of conjugation with glutathione. The structure of the phenylpropylene oxide-glutathione adduct is consistent with nucleophilic ring-opening by attack at the benzylic carbon. Exposure of cultured C6 glial cells to (S,S)-phenylpropylene oxide produced a cytotoxic response in a concentration-dependent manner based on cell degeneration and death.

  1. J. Chem. Soc., Dalton Trans., 1997, Pages 17391745 1739 Electrochemistry of the coppernickel series of heteropolymetallic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kounaves, Samuel P.

    DALTON J. Chem. Soc., Dalton Trans., 1997, Pages 1739­1745 1739 Electrochemistry of the copper, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA The electrochemistry of the tetranuclear copper

  2. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  3. TransCanada Power Mktg Ltd (Connecticut) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, searchTransCanada Power Mktg Ltd

  4. TransCanada Power Mktg Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, searchTransCanada Power

  5. TransWest Express LLC TWE | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EISTJThin Film SolarTown of Skiatook,1993)Trane JumpTransCanada

  6. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  7. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  8. TransPlanckian Particles and the Quantization of Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. 't Hooft

    1998-05-20

    Trans-Planckian particles are elementary particles accelerated such that their energies surpass the Planck value. There are several reasons to believe that trans-Planckian particles do not represent independent degrees of freedom in Hilbert space, but they are controlled by the cis-Planckian particles. A way to learn more about the mechanisms at work here, is to study black hole horizons, starting from the scattering matrix Ansatz. By compactifying one of the three physical spacial dimensions, the scattering matrix Ansatz can be exploited more efficiently than before. The algebra of operators on a black hole horizon allows for a few distinct representations. It is found that this horizon can be seen as being built up from string bits with unit lengths, each of which being described by a representation of the SO(2,1) Lorentz group. We then demonstrate how the holographic principle works for this case, by constructing the operators corresponding to a field in space-time. The parameter t turns out to be quantized in Planckian units, divided by the period R of the compactified dimension.

  9. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  10. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  11. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  12. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  13. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  14. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  15. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  16. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  17. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  18. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  19. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  20. Advanced silicon photonic modulators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sorace, Cheryl M

    2010-01-01

    Various electrical and optical schemes used in Mach-Zehnder (MZ) silicon plasma dispersion effect modulators are explored. A rib waveguide reverse biased silicon diode modulator is designed, tested and found to operate at ...

  1. Modulating lignin in plants

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Apuya, Nestor; Bobzin, Steven Craig; Okamuro, Jack; Zhang, Ke

    2013-01-29

    Materials and methods for modulating (e.g., increasing or decreasing) lignin content in plants are disclosed. For example, nucleic acids encoding lignin-modulating polypeptides are disclosed as well as methods for using such nucleic acids to generate transgenic plants having a modulated lignin content.

  2. The benzene metabolite trans,trans-muconaldehyde blocks gap junction intercellular communication by cross-linking connexin43

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rivedal, Edgar Leithe, Edward

    2008-11-01

    Benzene is used at large volumes in many different human activities. Hematotoxicity and cancer-causation as a result of benzene exposure was recognized many years ago, but the mechanisms involved remain unclear. Aberrant regulation of gap junction intercellular communication (GJIC) has been linked to both cancer induction and interference with normal hematopoietic development. We have previously suggested that inhibition of GJIC may play a role in benzene toxicity since benzene metabolites were found to block GJIC, the ring-opened trans,trans-muconaldehyde (MUC) being the most potent metabolite. In the present work we have studied the molecular mechanisms underlying the MUC-induced inhibition of gap junctional communication. We show that MUC induces cross-linking of the gap junction protein connexin43 and that this is likely to be responsible for the induced inhibition of GJIC, as well as the loss of connexin43 observed in Western blots. We also show that glutaraldehyde possesses similar effects as MUC, and we compare the effects to that of formaldehyde. The fact that glutaraldehyde and formaldehyde have been associated with induction of leukemia as well as disturbance of hematopoiesis, strengthens the possible link between the effect of MUC on gap junctions, and the toxic effects of benzene.

  3. Trans beta substituted chlorins and methods of making and using the same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lindsey, Jonathan S.; Balasubramanian, Thiagarajan

    2003-05-06

    Trans beta substituted chlorins and methods of making the same are disclosed, along with polymers formed from or containing such trans beta substituted chlorins as one or more monomeric units therein, light harvesting rods formed from such polymers, and electrodes carrying such polymers.

  4. American Journal of Botany 92(12): 20542071. 2005. MOLECULAR SYSTEMATICS OF THE TRANS-PACIFIC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Downie, Stephen R.

    ) was distributed in Eurasia and subsequently dispersed to North America and southern Pacific Rim. Based on dating2054 American Journal of Botany 92(12): 2054­2071. 2005. MOLECULAR SYSTEMATICS OF THE TRANS-PACIFIC biogeographic processes that have shaped the global biodiversity. The trans-Pacific disjunct alpine genus

  5. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  6. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  7. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  8. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  9. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  10. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  11. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  12. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  13. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  14. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  15. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  16. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  17. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  18. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  19. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  20. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  1. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  2. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  3. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  4. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  5. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  6. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  7. An Introduction to Resurgence, Trans-Series and Alien Calculus

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dorigoni, Daniele

    2014-01-01

    In these notes we give an overview of different topics in resurgence theory from a physics point of view, but with particular mathematical flavour. After a short review of the standard Borel method for the resummation of asymptotic series, we introduce the class of simple resurgent functions, explaining their importance in physical problems. We define the Stokes automorphism and the alien derivative and discuss these objects in concrete examples using the notion of trans-series expansion. With all the tools introduced, we see how resurgence and alien calculus allow us to extract non-perturbative physics from perturbation theory. To conclude, we apply Morse theory to a toy model path integral to understand why physical observables should be resurgent functions.

  8. An Introduction to Resurgence, Trans-Series and Alien Calculus

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Daniele Dorigoni

    2015-01-17

    In these notes we give an overview of different topics in resurgence theory from a physics point of view, but with particular mathematical flavour. After a short review of the standard Borel method for the resummation of asymptotic series, we introduce the class of simple resurgent functions, explaining their importance in physical problems. We define the Stokes automorphism and the alien derivative and discuss these objects in concrete examples using the notion of trans-series expansion. With all the tools introduced, we see how resurgence and alien calculus allow us to extract non-perturbative physics from perturbation theory. To conclude, we apply Morse theory to a toy model path integral to understand why physical observables should be resurgent functions.

  9. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  10. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  13. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. Bracket for photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ciasulli, John; Jones, Jason

    2014-06-24

    Brackets for photovoltaic ("PV") modules are described. In one embodiment, a saddle bracket has a mounting surface to support one or more PV modules over a tube, a gusset coupled to the mounting surface, and a mounting feature coupled to the gusset to couple to the tube. The gusset can have a first leg and a second leg extending at an angle relative to the mounting surface. Saddle brackets can be coupled to a torque tube at predetermined locations. PV modules can be coupled to the saddle brackets. The mounting feature can be coupled to the first gusset and configured to stand the one or more PV modules off the tube.

  16. Module No: 410336Personal Statutes for Non-Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 410336Personal Statutes for Non- Muslims Module Title: Co-requisite:Introduction of Islamic Jurisprudence Pre-requisite: Module Type: specialization requirementModule level: Third Year Academic rank Module coordinator 307384Assistant Professor Dr. Fuad Sartawi ResearchTutorial Guidance

  17. Module No: 410319Copyrights and Neighboring Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 410319Copyrights and Neighboring Rights Module Title: Co-requisite:Effects of ObligationsPre-requisite: Module Type: specialization elective requirementModule level: Third Year Evening Academic rank Module coordinator e-bataineh@philadelphia.edu.joAssistant Professor Dr. Iyad Bataineh

  18. Approved Module Information for PD2003, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles 2 Module Code: PD2003

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PD2003, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles 2 Module Code: PD2003 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module? No Module Dependancies Pre-requisites: Engineering Principles (PD1803). Co-requisites: None Specified Module

  19. Approved Module Information for BF2210, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Making Managerial Decisions Module Code: BF2210

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2210, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Making Managerial Decisions Module Code: BF2210 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Florian Gebreiter Email Address gebreif1

  20. Approved Module Information for LPM040, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rethinking European Integration Module Code: LPM040

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LPM040, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rethinking European Integration Module Code: LPM040 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Nathaniel Copsey Email Address n

  1. Approved Module Information for LEM039, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar Module Code: LEM039

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LEM039, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar Module Code: LEM039 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Urszula Clark Email Address u

  2. Approved Module Information for LS3006, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Hispanic Film Module Code: LS3006

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LS3006, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Hispanic Film Module Code: LS3006 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Raquel Medina Email Address r

  3. Approved Module Information for LT2102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Inventory Control Module Code: LT2102

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT2102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Inventory Control Module Code: LT2102 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name James Stone Email Address j

  4. Approved Module Information for PY2217, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Personality Practical (JH) Module Code: PY2217

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY2217, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Personality Practical (JH) Module Code: PY2217 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ed Walford Email Address e

  5. Approved Module Information for BS3347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Economics of Entrepreneurship Module Code: BS3347

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS3347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Economics of Entrepreneurship Module Code: BS3347 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Anna Rebmann Email Address rebmanna

  6. Approved Module Information for PY3351, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Child Development Module Code: PY3351

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY3351, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Child Development Module Code: PY3351 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Claire Farrow Email Address farrowc

  7. Approved Module Information for CE2110, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process Laboratory Module Code: CE2110

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE2110, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process Laboratory Module Code: CE2110 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name John Brammer Email Address brammejg

  8. Approved Module Information for LK2004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Global Society Module Code: LK2004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LK2004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Global Society Module Code: LK2004 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Demelza Jones Email Address jonesd4@aston

  9. Approved Module Information for CH3117, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Research Project Module Code: CH3117

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CH3117, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Research Project Module Code: CH3117 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Andrew James Sutherland Email Address

  10. Approved Module Information for LE1008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar & Meaning Module Code: LE1008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE1008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar & Meaning Module Code: LE1008 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jack Grieve Email Address grievej1

  11. Approved Module Information for BN3385, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Effective Project Delivery Module Code: BN3385

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BN3385, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Effective Project Delivery Module Code: BN3385 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Panagiotis Petridis Email Address petridip

  12. Approved Module Information for BS1163, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Introduction to Microeconomics Module Code: BS1163

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS1163, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Introduction to Microeconomics Module Code: BS1163 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Morris Email Address morrisd5@aston

  13. Approved Module Information for LEM016, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Methodology Module Code: LEM016

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LEM016, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Methodology Module Code: LEM016 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Muna Morris-Adams Email Address adamsmm

  14. Approved Module Information for BF2251, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Financial Management Module Code: BF2251

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2251, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Financial Management Module Code: BF2251 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  15. Approved Module Information for LT2315, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rail Transport Module Code: LT2315

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT2315, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rail Transport Module Code: LT2315 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name P Connor Email Address connorp

  16. Approved Module Information for ME2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Quality Engineering Module Code: ME2018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Quality Engineering Module Code: ME2018 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Upton Email Address uptondp

  17. Approved Module Information for LI2008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Communication across Cultures Module Code: LI2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LI2008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Communication across Cultures Module Code: LI2008 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Olga Castro Email Address o

  18. Approved Module Information for CE4018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Advanced Particle Processing Module Code: CE4018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE4018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Advanced Particle Processing Module Code: CE4018 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Mark Leaper Email Address m

  19. Approved Module Information for SE4031, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Extended Integrative Option Module Code: SE4031

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for SE4031, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Extended Integrative Option Module Code: SE4031 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 30 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Trevor Oliver Email Address t

  20. Approved Module Information for LT1312, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Review Project Module Code: LT1312

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1312, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Review Project Module Code: LT1312 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Carpenter Email Address d

  1. Approved Module Information for LS2017, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Contemporary Latin America Module Code: LS2017

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LS2017, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Contemporary Latin America Module Code: LS2017 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Stephanie Panichelli-Batalla Email Address

  2. Approved Module Information for CE3013, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Particle Processing Module Code: CE3013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3013, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Particle Processing Module Code: CE3013 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Mark Leaper Email Address m

  3. Approved Module Information for LE2057, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Computer Mediated Communication Module Code: LE2057

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE2057, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Computer Mediated Communication Module Code: LE2057 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Nur Hooton Email Address n

  4. Approved Module Information for BS3325, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Competition Policy -Theory Module Code: BS3325

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS3325, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Competition Policy - Theory Module Code: BS3325 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Matt Olczak Email Address olczakm

  5. Approved Module Information for BL1179, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Accounting for Law Module Code: BL1179

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BL1179, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Accounting for Law Module Code: BL1179 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Angela Stanhope Email Address a

  6. Approved Module Information for BFM120, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investment Management Module Code: BFM120

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BFM120, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investment Management Module Code: BFM120 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  7. Approved Module Information for PY2216, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Neuroscience Practicals Module Code: PY2216

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY2216, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Neuroscience Practicals Module Code: PY2216 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ed Walford Email Address e

  8. Approved Module Information for BHM348, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Employee Relations & Counselling Module Code: BHM348

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM348, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Employee Relations & Counselling Module Code: BHM348 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name M Carter Email Address cartermr

  9. Approved Module Information for LT1307, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Economics Module Code: LT1307

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1307, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Economics Module Code: LT1307 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Carpenter Email Address d

  10. Approved Module Information for ME2050, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Dynamics and Control Module Code: ME2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME2050, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Dynamics and Control Module Code: ME2050 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Xianghong Ma Email Address max

  11. Approved Module Information for BHM328, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Business Sustainability Module Code: BHM328

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM328, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Business Sustainability Module Code: BHM328 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name H Borland Email Address borlanhm

  12. Approved Module Information for BF2244, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Finance Module Code: BF2244

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2244, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Finance Module Code: BF2244 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  13. Approved Module Information for CE3102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Engineering Module Code: CE3102

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Engineering Module Code: CE3102 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Feroz Kabir Email Address kabirf

  14. Approved Module Information for LE2053, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Variations of English Module Code: LE2053

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE2053, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Variations of English Module Code: LE2053 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jack Grieve Email Address grievej1

  15. Approved Module Information for BF3314, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Derivatives Module Code: BF3314

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF3314, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Derivatives Module Code: BF3314 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Winifred Huang-Meier Email Address w

  16. Approved Module Information for PY3472, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Autistic Spectrum Module Code: PY3472

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY3472, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Autistic Spectrum Module Code: PY3472 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Gina Rippon Email Address rippong@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  17. Approved Module Information for CE3112, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Nanomaterials Module Code: CE3112

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3112, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Nanomaterials Module Code: CE3112 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Qingchun Yuan Email Address q.yuan@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  18. Approved Module Information for CE1002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Design and Build Module Code: CE1002

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE1002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Design and Build Module Code: CE1002 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Paul Andrew Tack Email Address tackpa

  19. Approved Module Information for LG2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Metropolis Berlin Module Code: LG2018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LG2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Metropolis Berlin Module Code: LG2018 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Uwe Schütte Email Address u

  20. Approved Module Information for PD2002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Commercial Practice Module Code: PD2002

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PD2002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Commercial Practice Module Code: PD2002 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jon Hewitt Email Address Not Specified

  1. Approved Module Information for BN2290, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Operational Research Techniques Module Code: BN2290

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BN2290, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Operational Research Techniques Module Code: BN2290 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ozren Despic Email Address o

  2. Approved Module Information for LT1319, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Air Transport Module Code: LT1319

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1319, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Air Transport Module Code: LT1319 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name James Stone Email Address j.stone@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  3. Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Presents concept for hermetic encapsulation of TE modules...

  4. Regulatory Interactions in ProKaryotes from RegTransBase

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Dubchak, Inna; Gelfand, Mikhail

    RegTransBase, a manually curated database of regulatory interactions in prokaryotes, captures the knowledge in published scientific literature using a controlled vocabulary. RegTransBase describes a large number of regulatory interactions reported in many organisms and contains various types of experimental data, in particular: the activation or repression of transcription by an identified direct regulator determining the transcriptional regulatory function of a protein (or RNA) directly binding to DNA or RNA mapping or prediction of binding sites for a regulatory protein characterization of regulatory mutations Currently, the RegTransBase content is derived from about 3000 relevant articles describing over 7000 experiments in relation to 128 microbes. It contains data on the regulation of about 7500 genes and evidence for 6500 interactions with 650 regulators. RegTransBase also contains manually created position weight matrices (PWM) that can be used to identify candidate regulatory sites in over 60 species. (Specialized Interface)

  5. Trans-Pacific Partnership or Trampling Poor Partners? A Tentative Critical Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhala, Raj

    2014-04-01

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could be the most economically and politically significant free trade agreement (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific region. Conceived in 2006 by just four small countries, it now embraces 12 that ...

  6. IEEE TRANS. ON COMPUTERS, IN REVIEW, REVISED JUNE 23, 2015. 1 SHIELD: Scalable Homomorphic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Association for Cryptologic Research (IACR)

    IEEE TRANS. ON COMPUTERS, IN REVIEW, REVISED JUNE 23, 2015. 1 SHIELD: Scalable Homomorphic Implementation of Encrypted Data-Classifiers Alhassan Khedr, Member, IEEE, Glenn Gulak, Senior Member, IEEE

  7. Feminism and the (Trans)gender Entrapment of Gender Nonconforming Prisoners

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oparah, Julia C.

    2012-01-01

    See, e.g. , TRANSGENDER RIGHTS (Paisley Currah et al. eds. ,gender congruence. 22 The trans 17. Paisley Currah et al. ,RIGHTs at xiii, xiv (Paisley Currah et al. eds. , 2006) 18.

  8. Intern experience at Tech Tran Corporation, Naperville, Illinois: an internship report 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morgan, Joseph Alan, 1947-

    2013-03-13

    This report presents a survey of the author's internship experience with Tech Tran Corporation during the period September 1, 1981 through May 1, 1982. The eight month internship was spent as an associate ...

  9. Spectroscopy and theory of cis-trans isomerization in the S? state of acetylene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Changala, P. Bryan (Peter Bryan)

    2013-01-01

    This thesis consists of parallel experimental and theoretical studies of the rovibrational structure and dynamics of the Si state of acetylene, C2H2 . This small molecule is a prototypical system for the study of cis-trans ...

  10. Lilly Tran, MS, E.I.T. Page 1 of 3 Updated 12/2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chisholm, Rex L.

    Dosage on Joint Forces. Tse, J., Tran, L., D'Lima, D., Fregly, B., Patil, S., Backus, S., Garrison, G., Kraszewski, A., Garrison, G., Kontaxis, A., Lenhoff, M., Backus, S., Bido, J., Hillstrom, H. GCMAS Annual

  11. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, J.

    1994-03-15

    A membrane module assembly is described which is adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation. 2 figures.

  12. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, Jurgen (Palo Alto, CA)

    1994-01-01

    A membrane module assembly adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation.

  13. Module Safety Issues (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wohlgemuth, J.

    2012-02-01

    Description of how to make PV modules so that they are less likely to turn into safety hazards. Making modules inherently safer with minimum additional cost is the preferred approach for PV. Safety starts with module design to ensure redundancy within the electrical circuitry to minimize open circuits and proper mounting instructions to prevent installation related ground faults. Module manufacturers must control the raw materials and processes to ensure that that every module is built like those qualified through the safety tests. This is the reason behind the QA task force effort to develop a 'Guideline for PV Module Manufacturing QA'. Periodic accelerated stress testing of production products is critical to validate the safety of the product. Combining safer PV modules with better systems designs is the ultimate goal. This should be especially true for PV arrays on buildings. Use of lower voltage dc circuits - AC modules, DC-DC converters. Use of arc detectors and interrupters to detect arcs and open the circuits to extinguish the arcs.

  14. Module Handbook Fernstudium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berns, Karsten

    Module Handbook Fernstudium postgradual Nanotechnology (Master of Science) Infineon Technology, Munich Distance studies postgraduate #12;Module name Fundamentals of Quantum Mechanics Lecturer apl. Prof is to present the fundamental concepts of quantum physics in a way that a clear understanding of the theoretical

  15. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  16. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  17. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  18. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  19. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  20. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  2. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  3. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  4. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  5. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  6. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  7. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  8. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  9. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  10. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  11. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  12. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  14. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  15. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2014-09-02

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame. A plurality of individual male alignment features and a plurality of individual female alignment features are included on each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by multiple individual male alignment features on a first module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules fitting into and being surrounded by corresponding individual female alignment features on a second module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  16. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  17. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  18. Module bay with directed flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Torczynski, John R. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2001-02-27

    A module bay requires less cleanroom airflow. A shaped gas inlet passage can allow cleanroom air into the module bay with flow velocity preferentially directed toward contaminant rich portions of a processing module in the module bay. Preferential gas flow direction can more efficiently purge contaminants from appropriate portions of the module bay, allowing a reduced cleanroom air flow rate for contaminant removal. A shelf extending from an air inlet slit in one wall of a module bay can direct air flowing therethrough toward contaminant-rich portions of the module bay, such as a junction between a lid and base of a processing module.

  19. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  3. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  4. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast

  5. A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting Song Cai to provide predictive distributions of daily maximum surface level ozone concentrations. Five forecast models forecasts for extreme events, namely poor air quality events defined as having ozone concentration 82 ppb

  6. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  7. Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data Based on comparisons with infrared (GOES) and microwave (AMSE-R) satellite data, our coastal ocean forecast model set circulation model and satellite data helps to improve forecasting of ocean conditions (esp. currents and SST

  8. Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud May 11, 2014 Abstract This paper presents a survey of electricity price forecasting for the Nordic region, and performs that time series models more appropriate for forecasting electricity prices, compared to machine learning

  9. Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedl, Herwig

    Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Vika Koban, Milos Pantos of electricity price under normal conditions with the spike time series caused by extreme conditions in order to obtain a better forecast of the spot price. Short term electricity price forecasting has become

  10. Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts Ronald H. Brown1 that allows long-term natural gas demand signals to be used effect- ively to generate high quality short-term natural gas demand forecasting models. Short data sets in natural gas forecasting inadequately represent

  11. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  12. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howard, Tim

    to space weather forecasting T. A. Howard1 and S. J. Tappin2 Received 15 October 2009; revised 27 April with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting. Citation: Howard, T

  13. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 on the ingredients for particular severe weather events, a focus is provided for the forecasting process of forecasters is discussed also, as a necessary component in a balanced approach to weather forecasting

  14. Water heater control module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hammerstrom, Donald J

    2013-11-26

    An advanced electric water heater control system that interfaces with a high temperature cut-off thermostat and an upper regulating thermostat. The system includes a control module that is electrically connected to the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module includes a switch to open or close the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module further includes circuitry configured to control said switch in response to a signal selected from the group of an autonomous signal, a communicated signal, and combinations thereof.

  15. Sonication standard laboratory module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beugelsdijk, Tony (Los Alamos, NM); Hollen, Robert M. (Los Alamos, NM); Erkkila, Tracy H. (Los Alamos, NM); Bronisz, Lawrence E. (Los Alamos, NM); Roybal, Jeffrey E. (Santa Fe, NM); Clark, Michael Leon (Menan, ID)

    1999-01-01

    A standard laboratory module for automatically producing a solution of cominants from a soil sample. A sonication tip agitates a solution containing the soil sample in a beaker while a stepper motor rotates the sample. An aspirator tube, connected to a vacuum, draws the upper layer of solution from the beaker through a filter and into another beaker. This beaker can thereafter be removed for analysis of the solution. The standard laboratory module encloses an embedded controller providing process control, status feedback information and maintenance procedures for the equipment and operations within the standard laboratory module.

  16. Modulated curvaton decay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Assadullahi, Hooshyar; Wands, David [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Firouzjahi, Hassan [School of Astronomy, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), P. O. Box 19395-5531, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein, E-mail: hooshyar.assadullahi@port.ac.uk, E-mail: firouz@mail.ipm.ir, E-mail: mh.namjoo@mail.ipm.ir, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Yukawa Institute for theoretical Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

    2013-03-01

    We study primordial density perturbations generated by the late decay of a curvaton field whose decay rate may be modulated by the local value of another isocurvature field, analogous to models of modulated reheating at the end of inflation. We calculate the primordial density perturbation and its local-type non-Gaussianity using the sudden-decay approximation for the curvaton field, recovering standard curvaton and modulated reheating results as limiting cases. We verify the Suyama-Yamaguchi inequality between bispectrum and trispectrum parameters for the primordial density field generated by multiple field fluctuations, and find conditions for the bound to be saturated.

  17. NMSGUT emergence and Trans-Unification RG flows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Charanjit S. Aulakh; Ila Garg; Charanjit K. Khosa

    2015-09-01

    Consistency of trans-unification RG evolution is used to discuss the domain of definition of the NMSO(10)GUT. We compute the 1-loop RGE $\\beta$ functions,simplifying generic Martin-Vaughn formulae using constraints of gauge invariance and superpotential structure. We also calculate the 2 loop contributions to the gauge coupling and gaugino mass and indicate how to get full 2 loop results for all couplings. Our method overcomes combinatorial barriers that frustrate computer algebra based attempts to calculate SO(10) $\\beta$ functions involving large irreps. Use of the RGEs identifies a perturbative domain $Q emergence} $M_E emerges from the strong UV dynamics associated with the Landau poles in gauge and Yukawa couplings. Due to the strength of the RG flows the Landau Polar regime for gauge and Yukawa couplings begins at a scale $\\Lambda_E $ just above $M_E$ and the interpretation of the NMSGUT as an effective theory cut off by $\\Lambda_E $ is well motivated. The large number ($N_X$) of superheavy fields makes it plausible that the observed Planck scale arises ($M_{Pl}\\sim \\sqrt{N_X} M_{GUT} $) from the wave function renormalization of the metric due to GUT scale massive fluctuations but is well separated from it. SO(10) IR flows facilitate small gaugino masses and generation of negative Non Universal Higgs masses squared needed by fully realistic NMSGUT fits of low energy data. Running the simple canonical theory emergent at $M_E$ through $M_X$ down to the electroweak scale enables tests of candidate scenarios such as supergravity based NMSGUT with canonical kinetic terms and NMSGUT based dynamical Yukawa Unification.

  18. CHARACTERIZATION OF SEVEN ULTRA-WIDE TRANS-NEPTUNIAN BINARIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parker, Alex H. [Department of Astronomy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Kavelaars, J. J. [Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, National Research Council of Canada, Saanich, BC (Canada); Petit, Jean-Marc [Observatoire de Besancon, Besancon (France); Jones, Lynne [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Gladman, Brett [Department of Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Parker, Joel, E-mail: alexhp@uvic.ca [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-12-10

    The low-inclination component of the Classical Kuiper Belt is host to a population of extremely widely separated binaries. These systems are similar to other trans-Neptunian binaries (TNBs) in that the primary and secondary components of each system are of roughly equal size. We have performed an astrometric monitoring campaign of a sample of seven wide-separation, long-period TNBs and present the first-ever well-characterized mutual orbits for each system. The sample contains the most eccentric (2006 CH{sub 69}, e{sub m} = 0.9) and the most widely separated, weakly bound (2001 QW{sub 322}, a/R{sub H} {approx_equal} 0.22) binary minor planets known, and also contains the system with lowest-measured mass of any TNB (2000 CF{sub 105}, M{sub sys} {approx_equal} 1.85 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 17} kg). Four systems orbit in a prograde sense, and three in a retrograde sense. They have a different mutual inclination distribution compared to all other TNBs, preferring low mutual-inclination orbits. These systems have geometric r-band albedos in the range of 0.09-0.3, consistent with radiometric albedo estimates for larger solitary low-inclination Classical Kuiper Belt objects, and we limit the plausible distribution of albedos in this region of the Kuiper Belt. We find that gravitational collapse binary formation models produce an orbital distribution similar to that currently observed, which along with a confluence of other factors supports formation of the cold Classical Kuiper Belt in situ through relatively rapid gravitational collapse rather than slow hierarchical accretion. We show that these binary systems are sensitive to disruption via collisions, and their existence suggests that the size distribution of TNOs at small sizes remains relatively shallow.

  19. Introduction to the Buildings Sector Module of SEDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeForest, Nicholas; Bonnet, Florence; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris

    2010-12-31

    SEDS is a stochastic engineering-economics model that forecasts economy-wide energy consumption in the U.S. to 2050. It is the product of multi-laboratory collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Lumina Decision Systems. Among national energy models, SEDS is unique, as it is the only model written to explicitly incorporate uncertainty in its inputs and outputs. The primary purpose of SEDS is to estimate the impact of various US Department of Energy (DOE)R&D and policy programs on the performance and subsequent adoption rates of technologies relating to every energy consuming sector of the economy (shown below). It has previously been used to assist DOE in complying with the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA). The focus of LBNL research has been exclusively on develop the buildings model (SBEAM), which is capable of running as a stand-alone forecasting model, or as a part of SEDS as a whole. The full version of SEDS, containing all sectors and interaction is also called the 'integrated' version and is managed by NREL. Forecasts from SEDS are often compared to those coming from National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The intention of this document is to present new users and developers with a general description of the purpose, functionality and structure of the buildings module within the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS). The Buildings module, which is capable of running as a standalone model, is also called the Stochastic Buildings Energy and Adoption Model (SBEAM). This document will focus exclusively on SBEAM and its interaction with other major sector modules present within SEDS. The methodologies and major assumptions employed in SBEAM will also be discussed. The organization of this report will parallel the organization of the model itself, being divided into major submodules. As the description progresses, the nature of modules will change from broad, easily understood concepts to lower-level data manipulation. Because SBEAM contains dozens of submodules and hundreds of variables, it would not be relevant or useful to describe each and every one. Rather, the investigation will focus more generally on the operations performed throughout the model. This manual is by no means a complete description of SBEAM; however it should provide the foundation for an introductory understanding of the model. The manual assumes a basic level of understating of Analytica{reg_sign}, the platform on which SEDS and SBEAM have been developed.

  20. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J

    2014-12-02

    is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating...

  1. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we studyOptimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation

  2. Forecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    finance. GAs are algorithms that emulate evolution and natural selection to solve a problem. A populationForecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery Alma Lilia Garcia to financial problems. In particular, the use of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), for financial purposes, has

  3. Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Statistic Simulations Guangbin Li (gl2423) #12 of the most heated-discussed issues. Energy shortage and environment pollution are the main bottleneck the tradeoff between energy supply and environment pollution. As the international oil price was continuously

  4. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

  5. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  6. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  7. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  8. A Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Wei

    . Frequent pattern-based data representations have been used in various studies for abstracting climaticA Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events Dawei Wang, Wei@cs.umb.edu Abstract--Extreme weather events, like extreme rainfalls, are severe weather hazards and also the triggers

  9. ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chapter 73 ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed Abstract The class of ARM (Autoregressive Modular) processes is a class of stochastic processes, defined by a non- linear autoregressive scheme with modulo-1 reduction and additional transformations. ARM processes

  10. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /Individuals Providing Comments California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition/ Mike Eaves League of Women VotersCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California

  11. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  12. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  13. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  14. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  15. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  16. 1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus- tomers, are operating within Kingdom out of a total budget of approximately £140 million for winter road maintenance. It is difficult rely on a simple set of statistics provided by the weather service providers. The current guidance

  17. Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koprinska, Irena

    Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks Mashud Rana and Irena Koprinska--We present INN, a new approach for predicting the hourly electricity load profile for the next day from a time series of previous electricity loads. It uses an iterative methodology to make the predictions

  18. Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imperial College, London

    Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

  19. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-26

    Facilities such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), which contain the potential for hazardous atmospheric releases, rely on the predictive capabilities of dispersion models to assess possible emergency response actions. The operational design in relation to domain size and forecast time is presented, along with verification of model results over extended time periods with archived surface observations.

  20. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  1. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in AlbanyFORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL NREL, 1617 Cole Blvd. Golden, CO 80841 stephen_wilcox@nrel.gov Antoine Zelenka Meteosuisse

  2. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  3. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  4. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  5. Approved Module Information for CS2020, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Software Engineering Module Code: CS2020

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CS2020, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Software Engineering Module Code: CS2020 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Electronic Engineering and Computer Science. Available to Exchange Students? Yes Module Dependancies Pre

  6. Approved Module Information for BMM645, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: International Marketing Management Module Code: BMM645

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Management Module Code: BMM645 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Aarti Sood Email Address a.sood3 are expected to attend lectures and seminars as well as to take part in classroom discussions. The module

  7. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  8. Module Title: Project Module Code: OPTO6005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Molinari, Marc

    Ibsen, Dr Ping Hua, Prof James Wilkinson Contact (email ID) sm@orc.soton.ac.uk, mi@orc.soton.ac.uk, ph2@orc.soton.ac.uk, jsw@orc.soton.ac.uk Is the module subject to external accreditation? No If yes and optical labs of the ORC 3. Train in technical and hands-on research skills to gain technical insight

  9. Module No: 410121Introduction to Commercial Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 410121Introduction to Commercial Law Module Title: Co-requisite: Commercial Papers/ Companies and Bankruptcy/International Trade Law- Maritime Law Introduction to LawPre-requisite: Module Type: department prerequisiteModule level: First year Evening StudyDaytime StudyCredit Hours: 3 Credit Hours

  10. Approved Module Information for BF3358, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investments Module Code: BF3358

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module learned how to measure the performance of an investment strategy. ? Transferable Skill ? have conducted performance measurement Portfolio return measurement. Risk adjusted performance measures. Attribution analysis

  11. GREET Pretreatment Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adom, Felix K.; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Han, Jeongwoo

    2014-09-01

    A wide range of biofuels and biochemicals can be produced from biomass via different pretreatment technologies that yield sugars. This report documents the material and energy flows that occur when fermentable sugars from four lignocellulosic feedstocks (corn stover, miscanthus, switchgrass, and poplar) are produced via dilute acid pretreatment and ammonia fiber expansion. These flows are documented for inclusion in the pretreatment module of the Greenhouses Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. Process simulations of each pretreatment technology were developed in Aspen Plus. Material and energy consumption data from Aspen Plus were then compiled in the GREET pretreatment module. The module estimates the cradle-to-gate fossil energy consumption (FEC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with producing fermentable sugars. This report documents the data and methodology used to develop this module and the cradle-to-gate FEC and GHG emissions that result from producing fermentable sugars.

  12. Digital optical conversion module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kotter, D.K.; Rankin, R.A.

    1988-07-19

    A digital optical conversion module used to convert an analog signal to a computer compatible digital signal including a voltage-to-frequency converter, frequency offset response circuitry, and an electrical-to-optical converter. Also used in conjunction with the digital optical conversion module is an optical link and an interface at the computer for converting the optical signal back to an electrical signal. Suitable for use in hostile environments having high levels of electromagnetic interference, the conversion module retains high resolution of the analog signal while eliminating the potential for errors due to noise and interference. The module can be used to link analog output scientific equipment such as an electrometer used with a mass spectrometer to a computer. 2 figs.

  13. Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    horizons of up to eight quarters ahead since this is the rele- vant time horizon for central banks when setting interest rates. Table 6 shows the RMSFE, the bias and the hit rate of forecasts based on the VECX*(2,2) model for the longest estimation window...

  14. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mrig, L. (ed.)

    1990-01-01

    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  15. Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications Novel Nanostructured Interface Solution for Automotive Thermoelectric Modules Application Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive...

  16. INJECTIVE MODULES FOR UNIFORM ALGEBRAS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    White, Michael C.

    of right Banach A-modules as mod-A and the class of Banach A-bimodules as A-mod-A. We shall refer to the module maps in each case as morphisms. Modules will be denoted by upper-case Roman letters, morphisms ), bounded linear maps are denoted by lower-case Roman letters. The assumption that all modules

  17. Approved Module Information for PH2502, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Pharmaceutical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PH2502, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Pharmaceutical Microbio Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Deborah Lowry Email Address lowryd to Exchange Students? Not Specified Module Learning Information Module Aims: Pharmaceutical Microbiology

  18. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  19. Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kagan, Yan Y

    2009-01-01

    Y. Kagan, 1992. Earthquake prediction and its optimization,V. Keilis-Borok, 2008. Earthquake Prediction: Probabilisticto Reliably Test Earthquake Prediction Methods, Eos Trans.

  20. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  1. A Buildings Module for the Stochastic Energy Deployment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marnay, Chris

    2008-01-01

    forecast is used, thereby eliminating any discrepancies. The final energy demandenergy results as well as the AEO- 07 forecasts for total natural gas demand

  2. Approved Module Information for BHM346, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Organisational Behaviour: Theory &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM346, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Organisational Behaviour: Theory & Practice Module Code: BHM346 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Yves Guillaume Email Address guilyrf2

  3. Approved Module Information for CE2106, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Kinetics & Equilibrium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE2106, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Kinetics & Equilibrium Thermodynamics Module Code: CE2106 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Mark Leaper Email Address

  4. Approved Module Information for BNM803, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Developing Business Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BNM803, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Developing Business Systems Workshop Module Code: BNM803 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Email Address Not Specified Telephone

  5. Approved Module Information for ME3023, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Energy Efficiency Module Code: ME3023

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    for assessing thermal processes in industry. Key issues associated with energy usage and reduction includingApproved Module Information for ME3023, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Energy Efficiency Module Code: ME3023 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits

  6. Approved Module Information for ME2045, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Solid Mechanics Module Code: ME2045

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    and comprehensive theory as well as practical application of the fundamental principles of mechanics and materialsApproved Module Information for ME2045, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Solid Mechanics Module Code: ME2045 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits

  7. Approved Module Information for BHM347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Assessment Performance & Reward Module Code: BHM347

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Assessment Performance & Reward Module Code: BHM347 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Practitioners: Recruitment and Selection (including Selection Assessment) Performance Measurement Management

  8. Approved Module Information for ME2502, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering for Industry Module Code: ME2502

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME2502, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering for Industry Module Code: ME2502 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module) Programmes in which available: BEng Design Engineering. BSc Industrial Product Design. BSc Product Design

  9. Approved Module Information for PD1803, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles Module Code: PD1803

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PD1803, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles Module Code: PD1803 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module; * have a knowledge and understanding of and be able to apply the basic engineering principles

  10. Approved Module Information for ME1601, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Science Module Code: ME1601

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME1601, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Science Module Code: ME1601 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module/MEng Mechanical Engineering. BEng/MEng Electromechanical Engineering. BEng Design Engineering. BEng

  11. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2012-09-04

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame having at least a top member and a bottom member. A plurality of alignment features are included on the top member of each frame, and a plurality of alignment features are included on the bottom member of each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by the alignment features on the top member of a lower module fitting together with the alignment features on the bottom member of an upper module. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  12. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  13. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  14. Trade war in the Pacific: ASEAN and the Trans-Pacific Partnership https://theconversation.edu.au/trade-war-in-the-pacific-asean-and-the-trans-pacific-partnership-10937[3/12/2012 11:38:09 AM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Botea, Adi

    centred on South-East Asia and a United States-led Pacific Rim. Moreover, it is not clear whetherTrade war in the Pacific: ASEAN and the Trans-Pacific Partnership https://theconversation.edu.au/trade-war-in-the-pacific-asean-and-the-trans-pacific-partnership-10937[3/12/2012 11:38:09 AM] TC Home

  15. Power module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Campbell, Jeremy B. (Torrance, CA); Newson, Steve (Redondo Beach, CA)

    2011-11-15

    A power module assembly of the type suitable for deployment in a vehicular power inverter, wherein the power inverter has a grounded chassis, is provided. The power module assembly comprises a conductive base layer electrically coupled to the chassis, an insulating layer disposed on the conductive base layer, a first conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, a second conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, wherein the first and second conductive nodes are electrically isolated from each other. The power module assembly also comprises a first capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the first conductive node, and further comprises a second capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the second conductive node.

  16. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  17. Approved Module Information for EE3WSN, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Wireless Sensor Networks Module Code: EE3WSN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for EE3WSN, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Wireless Sensor Networks Module Code: EE3WSN School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module

  18. Algorithms for bispectra: forecasting, optimal analysis, and simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kendrick M. Smith; Matias Zaldarriaga

    2011-11-08

    We propose a factorizability ansatz for angular bispectra which permits fast algorithms for forecasting, analysis, and simulation, yet is general enough to encompass many interesting CMB bispectra. We describe a suite of general algorithms which apply to any bispectrum which can be represented in factorizable form. First, we present algorithms for Fisher matrix forecasts and the related problem of optimizing the factorizable representation, giving a Fisher forecast for Planck as an example. We show that the CMB can give independent constraints on the amplitude of primordial bispectra of both local and equilateral shape as well as those created by secondary anisotropies. We also show that the ISW-lensing bispectrum should be detected by Planck and could bias estimates of the local type of non-Gaussianity if not properly accounted for. Second, we implement a bispectrum estimator which is fully optimal in the presence of sky cuts and inhomogeneous noise, extends the generality of fast estimators which have been limited to a few specific forms of the bispectrum, and improves the running time of existing implementations by several orders of magnitude. Third, we give an algorithm for simulating random, weakly non-Gaussian maps with prescribed power spectrum and factorizable bispectrum.

  19. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  20. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  1. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  2. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  3. Long Pulse Modulators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eckoldt, J

    2015-01-01

    Long pulse modulators are used to produce high-voltage, high-power pulses with durations of several hundred microseconds up to some milliseconds. The loads are one or more klystrons for producing RF power to accelerate the particle beam in superconducting cavities. After years of development and improvements in different institutes a variety of topologies exist, and are presented. The basics of modulators, pulse requirements and klystrons are explained. Additionally, the charging of internal energy storage will be addressed. The outlook for future developments is given.

  4. Method of monolithic module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gee, James M. (Albuquerque, NM); Garrett, Stephen E. (Albuquerque, NM); Morgan, William P. (Albuquerque, NM); Worobey, Walter (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-01-01

    Methods for "monolithic module assembly" which translate many of the advantages of monolithic module construction of thin-film PV modules to wafered c-Si PV modules. Methods employ using back-contact solar cells positioned atop electrically conductive circuit elements affixed to a planar support so that a circuit capable of generating electric power is created. The modules are encapsulated using encapsulant materials such as EVA which are commonly used in photovoltaic module manufacture. The methods of the invention allow multiple cells to be electrically connected in a single encapsulation step rather than by sequential soldering which characterizes the currently used commercial practices.

  5. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-02-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1)). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  6. Module Title: Metamaterials, Nanophotonics and Plasmonics Module Code: OPTO6004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Molinari, Marc

    1 Module Title: Metamaterials, Nanophotonics and Plasmonics Module Code: OPTO6004 Core introduction to the three cornerstones of future photonic technologies, namely metamaterials, plasmonics. Comprehend the concept of metamaterials and underlying principles of their operation A3. Learn about

  7. Detailed Course Module Description | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Detailed Course Module Description Detailed Course Module Description This document lists the course modules for building science courses offered at Cornell's Collaborator...

  8. Structure and anisotropy of the Mexico subduction zone based on Rayleigh-wave analysis and implications for the geometry of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stubailo, I; Beghein, C; Davis, PM

    2012-01-01

    across the central Mexican volcanic belt at 100 W: Spatialcentral Trans-Mexican volcanic belt, Chem. Geol. , 244(3–4),Trans-Mexican volcanic belt: Slab detachment in a subduction

  9. Formed photovoltaic module busbars

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rose, Douglas; Daroczi, Shan; Phu, Thomas

    2015-11-10

    A cell connection piece for a photovoltaic module is disclosed herein. The cell connection piece includes an interconnect bus, a plurality of bus tabs unitarily formed with the interconnect bus, and a terminal bus coupled with the interconnect bus. The plurality of bus tabs extend from the interconnect bus. The terminal bus includes a non-linear portion.

  10. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  11. Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baran, Sándor

    2014-01-01

    Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

  12. Module Handbook Specialisation Biomass Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Damm, Werner

    Module Handbook Specialisation Biomass Energy 2nd Semester for the Master Programme REMA/EUREC Course 2008/2009 University of Zaragoza Specialisation Provider: Biomass Energy #12;Specialisation Biomass Energy, University of Zaragoza Modul: Introduction and Basic Concepts

  13. Hierarchical classification of modulation signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Nam Jin

    2002-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of classifying both analog and digital modulation signals using different kinds of classifiers. The classification of modulation signals has both civilian and military applications. A total of 31 statistical signal...

  14. Numerical simulation of the photoisomerization of retinal from the cis to the trans form 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sinha, Indrani

    2009-05-15

    systems including ethylene, 2-butene, and stilbene. The cis-trans isomerization is modeled and in each case the results agree well with those obtained from other computational and empirical methods. Next, we use the tight-binding model to simulate...

  15. IEEE TRANS. MAGN., SUBMITTED 1 3D Eddy-Current Imaging of Metal Tubes by

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    IEEE TRANS. MAGN., SUBMITTED 1 3D Eddy-Current Imaging of Metal Tubes by Gradient-Based, Controlled, and Oliver Dorn Abstract--Eddy-current non-destructive testing is widely used to detect defects within-developed binary-specialized method. Index Terms--eddy-current non-destructive testing, impedance variations, level

  16. TransDec: A Data-Driven Framework for Decision-Making in Transportation Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shahabi, Cyrus

    Transportation Systems). The RIITS dataset is collected by various organizations based in Los Angeles County1 TransDec: A Data-Driven Framework for Decision-Making in Transportation Systems Ugur Demiryurek Los Angeles, CA 90089-0781 [demiryur, banaeika, shahabi]@usc.edu ABSTRACT In this paper, we present

  17. PRE-PRINT, IEEE TRANS. INFORM. TH. Outage Theorems for MIMO Block Fading

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varanasi, Mahesh K.

    PRE-PRINT, IEEE TRANS. INFORM. TH. Outage Theorems for MIMO Block Fading Channels Narayan Prasad probability (FEP) of space-time codes and the outage probability over general block fading multi-input multi are defined for a given rate and it is shown that average FEPs arbitrarily close to the respective outage

  18. Applicants Guide to Trans-national co-operation among National Contact Points (NCPs)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    De Cindio, Fiorella

    -operation between NCP's. The action will focus on identifying and sharing good practices. This may entail variousApplicants Guide to Trans-national co-operation among National Contact Points (NCPs) Call for the research community to guide the researchers through the rules and procedures of the Marie Curie Actions

  19. TransForumNews from Argonne's Transportation Research Program www.transportation.anl.gov

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    .transportation.anl.gov Rechargeable Nanoelectrofuels for Flow Batteries May Revolutionize EV World page 4 Operating at more than 10 times the capacity of a conventional flow battery, the nanoelectrofuel battery promises to revolutionize review experimental results from a full flow battery test in the fume hood wet lab area. Trans

  20. TransForumNews from Argonne's Transportation Research Program www.transportation.anl.gov

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    .transportation.anl.gov Rechargeable Nanoelectrofuels for Flow Batteries May Revolutionize EV World page 4 Operating at more than 10 times the capacity of a conventional flow battery, the nanoelectrofuel battery promises to revolutionize review experimental results from a full flow battery test in the fume hood wet lab area. #12;Trans

  1. A multi-group neutron noise simulator for fast reactors Hoai Nam Tran a,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demazière, Christophe

    that the noise measured by ex-core detectors in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) could be useful for assessingA multi-group neutron noise simulator for fast reactors Hoai Nam Tran a, , Florian Zylbersztejn a 2013 Accepted 12 June 2013 Keywords: Neutron noise Fast reactor Hexagonal geometry ESFR a b s t r a c

  2. IEEE TRANS. ON IMAGE PROCESSING 1 Self-Similar Anisotropic Texture Analysis: the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roux, Stephane

    IEEE TRANS. ON IMAGE PROCESSING 1 Self-Similar Anisotropic Texture Analysis: the Hyperbolic Wavelet Transform Contribution S.G. Roux(1), M. Clausel(2), B. Vedel(3), S. Jaffard(4), P. Abry(1), IEEE Fellow (1 8050, Cr´eteil, France. Copyright (c) 2013 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However

  3. Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 359(2007), no. 11, 55255553. COMBINATORIAL CONGRUENCES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, Zhi-Wei

    2007-01-01

    Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 359(2007), no. 11, 5525­5553. COMBINATORIAL CONGRUENCES MODULO PRIME POWERS Zhi-Wei Sun1 and Donald M. Davis2 1 Department of Mathematics, Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 No. 10425103). 1 #12;2 ZHI-WEI SUN AND DONALD M. DAVIS 1. Introduction In this paper we establish

  4. IEEE/ACM TRANS. ON NETWORKING, TO APPEAR 1 Utility Optimal Scheduling in Energy Harvesting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Longbo

    IEEE/ACM TRANS. ON NETWORKING, TO APPEAR 1 Utility Optimal Scheduling in Energy Harvesting Networks performance in energy harvesting networks with only finite capacity energy storage devices. In these networks decisions for packet transmissions. ESA only has to keep track of the amount of energy left at the network

  5. Rapid manufacturing of low-noise membranes for nanopore sensors by trans-chip illumination lithography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dekker, Nynke

    Rapid manufacturing of low-noise membranes for nanopore sensors by trans-chip illumination Nanotechnology 23 (2012) 475302 (8pp) doi:10.1088/0957-4484/23/47/475302 Rapid manufacturing of low chip can be rapidly fabricated using standard microfabrication methods, chips with additional

  6. Medieval/Africa The Trans-Saharan World, 500-1700

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wolfe, Patrick J.

    Medieval/Africa The Trans-Saharan World, 500-1700 A symposium exploring the complex institutional, cultural, and religious relation- ships tying the societies of sub-Saharan Africa to one another for Humanities in Africa Reception to follow in the Braun Room of Andover Hall Friday, 6 February CGIS S010 (the

  7. Trans-oceanic transport of 137 Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Peter K.N.

    Trans-oceanic transport of 137 Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident and impact of hypothetical Fukushima-like events of future nuclear plants in Southern China Ka-Ming Wai a,b, , Peter K.N. Yu b. · Observed and modeled 137 Cs concentrations were comparable for the Fukushima accident. · The maximum

  8. EULERIANLAGRANGIAN LOCALIZED ADJOINT METHODS FOR TRANS PORT OF NUCLEARWASTE CONTAMINATION IN POROUS MEDIA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ewing, Richard E.

    developed for use by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to analyze deep geologic nuclear waste disposalEULERIAN­LAGRANGIAN LOCALIZED ADJOINT METHODS FOR TRANS­ PORT OF NUCLEAR­WASTE CONTAMINATION­ creasingly threatened by organic, inorganic, and radioactive pollutants as well as high­level nuclear waste

  9. SUBMITTED TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE OF IEEE TRANS. ON SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 1 Simulation of Semiconductor Manufacturing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SUBMITTED TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE OF IEEE TRANS. ON SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 1 Simulation of Semiconductor Manufacturing Supply-Chain Systems with DEVS, MPC, and KIB Dongping Huang, Hessam Sarjoughian1 manufacturing supply-chain systems can be described using a combination of Discrete EVent System Specification

  10. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  11. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  12. Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe productivity (Leung et al. 2002). Risk-analysis methodology for intentional and unintentional introductions

  13. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Solar Forecasting  1.   to more accurate prediction of solar  irradiance, given a to create daily solar electricity predictions accurate to 

  14. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  15. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand .............................................................. 23 Electricity Demand Growth in the West............................................................................................................................... 28 Estimating Electricity Demand in Data Centers

  16. Report of the External Expert Peer Review Panel: DOE Benefits Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  17. Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harrison, Brent

    2014-01-01

    streamflow predictions for water supply forecasting in theAn assessment of seasonal water supply outlooks in thepaper, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of

  18. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  20. Neural network based short-term load forecasting using weather compensation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chow, T.W.S.; Leung, C.T. [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering] [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering

    1996-11-01

    This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. The proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. The weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error.