National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for module generates forecasts

  1. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  2. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  3. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices....

  4. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  5. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  6. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  7. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  8. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  9. PSCAD Modules Representing PV Generator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Muljadi, E.; Singh, M.; Gevorgian, V.

    2013-08-01

    Photovoltaic power plants (PVPs) have been growing in size, and the installation time is very short. With the cost of photovoltaic (PV) panels dropping in recent years, it can be predicted that in the next 10 years the contribution of PVPs to the total number of renewable energy power plants will grow significantly. In this project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a dynamic modeling of the modules to be used as building blocks to develop simulation models of single PV arrays, expanded to include Maximum Power Point Tracker (MPPT), expanded to include PV inverter, or expanded to cover an entire PVP. The focus of the investigation and complexity of the simulation determines the components that must be included in the simulation. The development of the PV inverter was covered in detail, including the control diagrams. Both the current-regulated voltage source inverter and the current-regulated current source inverter were developed in PSCAD. Various operations of the PV inverters were simulated under normal and abnormal conditions. Symmetrical and unsymmetrical faults were simulated, presented, and discussed. Both the three-phase analysis and the symmetrical component analysis were included to clarify the understanding of unsymmetrical faults. The dynamic model validation was based on the testing data provided by SCE. Testing was conducted at SCE with the focus on the grid interface behavior of the PV inverter under different faults and disturbances. The dynamic model validation covers both the symmetrical and unsymmetrical faults.

  10. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  11. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced and evaluation at a local, regional and national scale. Finally, the project demonstrates the value of wind

  12. Generators in module and comodule categories Robert Wisbauer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisbauer, Robert

    Generators in module and comodule categories Robert Wisbauer Abstract. The relations between between cate- gories. They are often of the form Hom(P, -) : A B where P is a generator (with additional properties) in A. In this talk we analyse generators in module and comodule categories. While in full module

  13. Name of Module: Next Generation Network Project 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wichmann, Felix

    Name of Module: Next Generation Network ­ Project 1 CP (ECTS): 9 Short Name: MINF-KS-AV/PJ1.W12 circuit-switched telecommunication networks, IP based Next Generation Networks (NGNs). Furthermore already known topics from the modules ,,Offene Kommunikationssystem" or "Next Generation Networks - Basis

  14. Name of Module: Next Generation Network Project 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wichmann, Felix

    Name of Module: Next Generation Network ­ Project 2 CP (ECTS): 9 Short Name: MINF-KS-AV/PJ2.W12 circuit-switched telecommunication networks, IP based Next Generation Networks (NGNs). Furthermore already known topics from the modules ,,Offene Kommunikationssystem" or "Next Generation Networks - Basis

  15. Photonic generation of UWB pulses with pulse position modulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yao, Jianping

    Photonic generation of UWB pulses with pulse position modulation H. Mu and J. Yao A novel photonic approach to generating ultra-wideband (UWB) signals with pulse position modulation (PPM) is proposed delay-line filter for UWB monocycle pulse generation, the second subsystem being a pulse

  16. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an op- erational gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  17. SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    turbines and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the domain of gas turbines we are working on summarizing sensor data from an opera- tional gas turbine (Yu et. al., 2003) for the maintenance engineersSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

  18. EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS Richard Perez predict the effective capacity of grid-connected PV power plants. The predicted and actual utility peak load reduction performance of PV power plants are compared for two case studies: ConEdison in New York

  19. Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables increase the penetration of environmentally-friendly renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind. For example, the Renewables Portfolio Standard targets up to 25% of energy generation from intermittent

  20. Modulation compression for short wavelength harmonic generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qiang, J.

    2010-01-01

    Wavelength Harmonic Generation Ji Qiang Lawrence Berkeleyform a basis for fourth generation light source. Currently,e?ciency was proposed for generation of short wavelength

  1. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  2. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  3. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  4. Design of the Second-Generation ILC Marx Modulator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kemp, M.A.; Benwell, A.; Burkhart, C.; Larsen, R.; MacNair, D.; Nguyen, M.; Olsen, J.; /SLAC; ,

    2010-09-14

    SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC) has initiated a program to design and build a Marx-topology modulator to produce a relatively compact, low-cost, high availability klystron modulator for the International Linear Collider (ILC). Building upon the success of the P1 Marx, the SLAC P2 Marx is a second-generation modulator whose design further emphasizes the qualities of modularity and high-availability. This paper outlines highlights of this design and presents single-cell performance data obtained during the proof-of-concept phase of the project.

  5. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  6. Module PE.PAS.U19.5Generation adequacy evaluation 1 Module PE.PAS.U19.5

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    Module PE.PAS.U19.5Generation adequacy evaluation 1 Module PE.PAS.U19.5 Generation adequacy, #12;Module PE.PAS.U19.5Generation adequacy evaluation 2 and, in Section U19.3, the load side. Section was described in Sections U16.4-U16.5 and Section U18.2.3 of modules U16 & U18, respectively. Important

  7. Transport and generation of macroscopically modulated waves in diatomic chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johannes Giannoulis

    2011-05-08

    We derive and justify analytically the dynamics of a small macroscopically modulated amplitude of a single plane wave in a nonlinear diatomic chain with stabilizing on-site potentials including the case where a wave generates another wave via self-interaction. More precisely, we show that in typical chains acoustical waves can generate optical but not acoustical waves, while optical waves are always closed with respect to self-interaction.

  8. Standing-wave enhanced electroabsorption modulator for 40-GHz optical pulse generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chou, H F; Chiu, Y J; Bowers, J E

    2003-01-01

    pulse generation, simulation, traveling-wave devices. I. IWAVE ENHANCED EAM FOR 40-GHz OPTICAL PULSE GENERATION (a) (Wave Enhanced Electroabsorption Modulator for 40-GHz Optical Pulse Generation

  9. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  10. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  11. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  12. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  13. Estradiol interacts with an opioidergic network to achieve rapid modulation of a vocal pattern generator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Remage-Healey, Luke; Bass, Andrew H.

    2010-01-01

    modulation of a vocal pattern generator Luke Remage-Healey ·spinal vocal pattern generator (VPG) directly establisheseVects on central pattern generators or indirect eVects on

  14. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  15. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  16. GENERATORS AND DIMENSIONS OF DERIVED CATEGORIES OF MODULES TAKUMA AIHARA AND RYO TAKAHASHI

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takahashi, Ryo

    GENERATORS AND DIMENSIONS OF DERIVED CATEGORIES OF MODULES TAKUMA AIHARA AND RYO TAKAHASHI Abstract of a triangulated category, and Rouquier proved that the bounded derived category of coherent sheaves on a separated of the bounded derived category of finitely generated modules over a commutative Noetherian ring. The main result

  17. The effects of energy storage properties and forecast accuracy on mitigating variability in wind power generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jaworsky, Christina A

    2013-01-01

    Electricity generation from wind power is increasing worldwide. Wind power can offset traditional fossil fuel generators which is beneficial to the environment. However, wind generation is unpredictable. Wind speeds have ...

  18. Design of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.

    1999-01-13

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a new model development effort undertaken jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a number of collaborating institutions and university scientists. The model is intended for use by operational NWP and university research communities, providing a common framework for idealized dynamical studies, fill physics numerical weather prediction, air-quality simulation, and regional climate. It will eventually supersede large, well-established but aging regional models now maintained by the participating institutions. The WRF effort includes re-engineering the underlying software architecture to produce a modular, flexible code designed from the outset to provide portable performance across diverse computing architectures. This paper outlines key elements of the WRF software design.

  19. Status Update on the Second-Generation ILC Marx Modulator Prototype

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kemp, Mark A.; Benwell, Andrew; Burkhart, Craig; Larsen, Ray; MacNair, David; Nguyen, Minh; Olsen, Jeff; /SLAC

    2010-08-26

    This paper is a status update of the SLAC P2 Marx. This Marx-topology klystron modulator is a second-generation modulator which builds upon experience gained from the SLAC P1 Marx. There are several fundamental differences between these modulators including the correction scheme, bus voltages, and the control system architecture. These differences, along with preliminary experimental results and the schedule for further development, are detailed in this paper.

  20. Phase matching of high order harmonic generation using dynamic phase modulation caused by a non-collinear modulation pulse

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cohen, Oren (Boulder, CO); Kapteyn, Henry C. (Boulder, CO); Mumane, Margaret M. (Boulder, CO)

    2010-02-16

    Phase matching high harmonic generation (HHG) uses a single, long duration non-collinear modulating pulse intersecting the driving pulse. A femtosecond driving pulse is focused into an HHG medium (such as a noble gas) to cause high-harmonic generation (HHG), for example in the X-ray region of the spectrum, via electrons separating from and recombining with gas atoms. A non-collinear pulse intersects the driving pulse within the gas, and modulates the field seen by the electrons while separated from their atoms. The modulating pulse is low power and long duration, and its frequency and amplitude is chosen to improve HHG phase matching by increasing the areas of constructive interference between the driving pulse and the HHG, relative to the areas of destructive interference.

  1. Name of Module: Hot Topics in Next Generation Networks and Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wichmann, Felix

    Name of Module: Hot Topics in Next Generation Networks and Future Internet CP (ECTS): 3 Short Name is the intensive discussion of current questions in the field of Next Generations Networks and the Future Internet and trends in the context of classic telecommunication systems, IP based Next Generation Networks

  2. Aalborg Universitet Individual Module Maximum Power Point Tracking for a Thermoelectric Generator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schaltz, Erik

    Aalborg Universitet Individual Module Maximum Power Point Tracking for a Thermoelectric Generator Tracking for a Thermoelectric Generator Systems. Poster session presented at The 31st International & 10th Generator Systems Casper Vadstrup (cvdst08@student.aau.dk), Min Chen (mch@et.aau.dk), Erik Schaltz (esc

  3. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  4. Intra-Hour Dispatch and Automatic Generator Control Demonstration with Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University of California at San Diego (UCSD) is leading a project that will reduce power system operation cost by providing a prediction of the generation fleet's behavior in real time for...

  5. Generation of correlated spike trains -modulated at theta rhythm. Correlated input spike trains generated using sequence of simple integrate and fire encoders driven by independent

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Halliday, David

    Generation of correlated spike trains - modulated at theta rhythm. Correlated input spike trains NOT effective at modulating output. 2. Correlated spike trains CAN modulate output discharge. Does not appear of Simulations - Periodically modulated: Uncorrelated and Correlated inputs. Uncorrelated Inputs: Common inputs

  6. Method and split cavity oscillator/modulator to generate pulsed particle beams and electromagnetic fields

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Clark, M. Collins (Albuquerque, NM); Coleman, P. Dale (Albuquerque, NM); Marder, Barry M. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1993-01-01

    A compact device called the split cavity modulator whose self-generated oscillating electromagnetic field converts a steady particle beam into a modulated particle beam. The particle beam experiences both signs of the oscillating electric field during the transit through the split cavity modulator. The modulated particle beam can then be used to generate microwaves at that frequency and through the use of extractors, high efficiency extraction of microwave power is enabled. The modulated beam and the microwave frequency can be varied by the placement of resistive wires at nodes of oscillation within the cavity. The short beam travel length through the cavity permit higher currents because both space charge and pinching limitations are reduced. The need for an applied magnetic field to control the beam has been eliminated.

  7. Method and split cavity oscillator/modulator to generate pulsed particle beams and electromagnetic fields

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Clark, M.C.; Coleman, P.D.; Marder, B.M.

    1993-08-10

    A compact device called the split cavity modulator whose self-generated oscillating electromagnetic field converts a steady particle beam into a modulated particle beam. The particle beam experiences both signs of the oscillating electric field during the transit through the split cavity modulator. The modulated particle beam can then be used to generate microwaves at that frequency and through the use of extractors, high efficiency extraction of microwave power is enabled. The modulated beam and the microwave frequency can be varied by the placement of resistive wires at nodes of oscillation within the cavity. The short beam travel length through the cavity permit higher currents because both space charge and pinching limitations are reduced. The need for an applied magnetic field to control the beam has been eliminated.

  8. Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brest, Université de

    renewable energy resources are random and weather/climatic conditions-dependant. In this challenging context technical and economical constraints. Index Terms--Hybrid energy systems, renewable power generation-friendly nature (i.e. renewable energies). Although renewable energy penetration in electricity is expected

  9. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  10. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  11. Generation of Coherent X-Ray Radiation through Modulation Compression...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In this paper, we propose a scheme to generate tunable coherent X-ray radiation for future light source applications. This scheme uses an energy chirped electron beam, a laser...

  12. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  13. Single module pressurized fuel cell turbine generator system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    George, Raymond A. (Pittsburgh, PA); Veyo, Stephen E. (Murrysville, PA); Dederer, Jeffrey T. (Valencia, PA)

    2001-01-01

    A pressurized fuel cell system (10), operates within a common pressure vessel (12) where the system contains fuel cells (22), a turbine (26) and a generator (98) where preferably, associated oxidant inlet valve (52), fuel inlet valve (56) and fuel cell exhaust valve (42) are outside the pressure vessel.

  14. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  15. Utilizing nonlinear ELF generation in modulated ionospheric heating experiments for communications applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ] Modulated ionospheric heating is an alternative tech- nique for generating ELF/VLF waves at frequencies wave energy is absorbed by electrons in the D region ionosphere near 80 km in altitude, heating Research Program (HAARP) located in Gakona, Alaska, is currently the world's most powerful ionospheric

  16. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    -Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms. G. Kariniotakis* , D. Mayer, J. Moussafir, R. Chevallaz-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches

  17. Generation of Dark and Bright Spin Wave Envelope Soliton Trains through Self-Modulational Instability in Magnetic Films

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Patton, Carl

    Generation of Dark and Bright Spin Wave Envelope Soliton Trains through Self-Modulational spin wave envelope soliton trains from a continuous wave input signal due to spontaneous modulational instability has been observed for the first time. The dark soliton trains were formed from high dispersion

  18. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  19. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  20. A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Chen

    2013-05-02

    Increasing penetration of stochastic photovoltaic (PV) generation into the electric power system poses significant challenges to system operators. In the thesis, we evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations of stochastic PV generation...

  1. Efficient terahertz-wave generation and its ultrafast optical modulation in charge ordered organic ferroelectrics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Itoh, Hirotake Iwai, Shinichiro; Itoh, Keisuke; Goto, Kazuki; Yamamoto, Kaoru; Yakushi, Kyuya

    2014-04-28

    Efficient terahertz (THz) wave generation in strongly correlated organic compounds ?-(ET){sub 2}I{sub 3} and ??-(ET){sub 2}IBr{sub 2} (ET:bis(ethylenedithio)-tetrathiafulvalene) was demonstrated. The spontaneous polarization induced by charge ordering or electronic ferroelectricity was revealed to trigger the THz-wave generation via optical rectification; the estimated 2nd-order nonlinear optical susceptibility for ?-(ET){sub 2}I{sub 3} is over 70 times larger than that for prototypical THz-source ZnTe. Ultrafast (<1 ps) and sensitive (?40%) photoresponse of the THz wave was observed for ?-(ET){sub 2}I{sub 3}, which is attributable to photoinduced quenching of the polarization accompanied by insulator(ferroelectric)-to-metal transition. Modulation of the THz wave was observed for ??-(ET){sub 2}IBr{sub 2} upon the poling procedure, indicating the alignment of polar domains.

  2. A Generic Biogeochemical Module for Earth System Models: Next Generation BioGeoChemical Module (NGBGC), Version 1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fang, Yilin; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Chongxuan; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-13

    Physical and biogeochemical processes regulate soil carbon dynamics and CO2 flux to and from atmosphere, influencing global climate changes. Integration of these processes into earth system models (e.g., community land models (CLM)), however, currently faces three major challenges: 1) extensive efforts are required to modify modeling structures and to rewrite computer programs to incorporate new or updated processes as new knowledge is being generated, 2) computational cost is prohibitively expensive to simulate biogeochemical processes in land models due to large variations in the rates of biogeochemical processes, and 3) various mathematical representations of biogeochemical processes exist to incorporate different aspects of fundamental mechanisms, but systematic evaluation of the different mathematical representations is difficult, if not possible. To address these challenges, we propose a new computational framework to easily incorporate physical and biogeochemical processes into land models. The new framework consists of a new biogeochemical module with a generic algorithm and reaction database so that new and updated processes can be incorporated into land models without the need to manually set up the ordinary differential equations to be solved numerically. The reaction database consists of processes of nutrient flow through the terrestrial ecosystems in plants, litter and soil. This framework facilitates effective comparison studies of biogeochemical cycles in an ecosystem using different conceptual models under the same land modeling framework. The approach was first implemented in CLM and benchmarked against simulations from the original CLM-CN code. A case study was then provided to demonstrate the advantages of using the new approach to incorporate a phosphorus cycle into the CLM model. To our knowledge, the phosphorus-incorporated CLM is a new model that can be used to simulate phosphorus limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

  3. Computational Needs for the Next Generation Electric Grid Proceedings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birman, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Generation:  Integrating  Wind  Forecast  Uncertainty  and day?ahead  forecast  for  the  wind  speed.    Similar forecast,  fits  this  description.   Another  example is wind 

  4. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-08

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  5. Modulational instability of Rossby and drift waves and generation of zonal jets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colm Connaughton; Balu Nadiga; Sergey Nazarenko; Brenda Quinn

    2009-05-14

    We study the modulational instability of geophysical Rossby and plasma drift waves within the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima (CHM) model both theoretically, using truncated (four-mode and three-mode) models, and numerically, using direct simulations of CHM equation in the Fourier space. The linear theory predicts instability for any amplitude of the primary wave. For strong primary waves the most unstable modes are perpendicular to the primary wave, which correspond to generation of a zonal flow if the primary wave is purely meridional. For weaker waves, the maximum growth occurs for off-zonal inclined modulations. For very weak primary waves the unstable waves are close to being in three-wave resonance with the primary wave. The nonlinear theory predicts that the zonal flows generated by the linear instability experience pinching into narrow zonal jets. Our numerical simulations confirm the theoretical predictions of the linear theory as well as of the nonlinear pinching. We find that, for strong primary waves, these narrow zonal jets further roll up into Karman-like vortex streets. On the other hand, for weak primary waves, the growth of the unstable mode reverses and the system oscillates between a dominant jet and a dominate primary wave. The 2D vortex streets appear to be more stable than purely 1D zonal jets, and their zonal-averaged speed can reach amplitudes much stronger than is allowed by the Rayleigh-Kuo instability criterion for the 1D case. We find that the truncation models work well for both the linear stage and and often even for the medium-term nonlinear behavior. In the long term, the system transitions to turbulence helped by the vortex-pairing instability (for strong waves) and by the resonant wave-wave interactions (for weak waves).

  6. Generation of platicons and frequency combs in optical microresonators with normal GVD by modulated pump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobanov, Valery E; Gorodetsky, Michael L

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate that flat-topped dissipative solitonic pulses, platicons, and corresponding frequency combs can be excited in optical microresonators with normal group velocity dispersion using either amplitude modulation of the pump or bichromatic pump. Soft excitation may occur in particular frequency range if modulation depth is large enough and modulation frequency is close to the free spectral range of the microresonator.

  7. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  8. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  9. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  10. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  11. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  12. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  13. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  14. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  15. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  16. Generator module architecture for a large solid oxide fuel cell power plant

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gillett, James E.; Zafred, Paolo R.; Riggle, Matthew W.; Litzinger, Kevin P.

    2013-06-11

    A solid oxide fuel cell module contains a plurality of integral bundle assemblies, the module containing a top portion with an inlet fuel plenum and a bottom portion receiving air inlet feed and containing a base support, the base supports dense, ceramic exhaust manifolds which are below and connect to air feed tubes located in a recuperator zone, the air feed tubes passing into the center of inverted, tubular, elongated, hollow electrically connected solid oxide fuel cells having an open end above a combustion zone into which the air feed tubes pass and a closed end near the inlet fuel plenum, where the fuel cells comprise a fuel cell stack bundle all surrounded within an outer module enclosure having top power leads to provide electrical output from the stack bundle, where the fuel cells operate in the fuel cell mode and where the base support and bottom ceramic air exhaust manifolds carry from 85% to all 100% of the weight of the stack, and each bundle assembly has its own control for vertical and horizontal thermal expansion control.

  17. Generation Following with Thermostatically Controlled Loads via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers Sharing Algorithm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    5 minute ahead forecasts of wind and solar generationUsing actual wind and solar generation forecasts, ambientCalifornia ISO Wind and Solar Generation 5-Min Forecasts for

  18. Computational mass transfer moduling of flow through a photocatalytic oxygen generator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Köksal, Erin (Erin Sevim)

    2008-01-01

    A self-contained, portable oxygen generator would be extraordinarily useful across a broad spectrum of industries. Both safety and energy-efficiency could be enhanced tremendously in fields such as coal mining, commercial ...

  19. HF beam parameters in ELF/VLF wave generation via modulated heating of the ionosphere

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of spreading the HF power over a wider area, and we find that a larger beam area yields larger generated et al., 1982], and the observa- tory at Jicamarca, Peru [Lunnen et al., 1984], were both used

  20. Simulation for Wind Turbine Generators -- With FAST and MATLAB-Simulink Modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singh, M.; Muljadi, E.; Jonkman, J.; Gevorgian, V.; Girsang, I.; Dhupia, J.

    2014-04-01

    This report presents the work done to develop generator and gearbox models in the Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) environment and couple them to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence (FAST) program. The goal of this project was to interface the superior aerodynamic and mechanical models of FAST to the excellent electrical generator models found in various Simulink libraries and applications. The scope was limited to Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3 generators and fairly basic gear-train models. Future work will include models of Type 4 generators and more-advanced gear-train models with increased degrees of freedom. As described in this study, implementation of the developed drivetrain model enables the software tool to be used in many ways. Several case studies are presented as examples of the many types of studies that can be performed using this tool.

  1. High-power ELF radiation generated by modulated HF heating of the ionosphere can cause Earthquakes, Cyclones and localized heating

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    transmitter radiates a strong beam of high- frequency (HF) waves modulated at ELF. This HF heating modulates-frequency (HF) radiation in the megahertz range [7]. This heating modulates the electron's temperature in the D

  2. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    and renewable generation. For example, utilities and independent system operators sometimes financially penalize wind power to

  3. Renewable Fuels Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

  4. An analogue model for controllable Casimir radiation in a nonlinear cavity with amplitude-modulated pumping: Generation and quantum statistical properties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ali Motazedifard; M. H. Naderi; R. Roknizadeh

    2015-05-07

    We present and investigate an analogue model for a controllable photon geberation via the dynamical Casimir effect (DCE) in a cavity containing a degenerate optical amplifier (OPA) which is pumed by an amplitude-modulated field. The time modulation of the pump field in the model OPA system is equivalent to a periodic modulation of the cavity length, which is responsible for the generation of the Casimir radiation. By taking into account the rapidly oscillating terms of the modulation frequency, the effects of the corresponding counter-rotating terms (CRTs) on the analogue Casimir radiation emerge clearly. We find that the mean number of generated photons and their quantum statistical properties exhibit oscillatory behaviors, which are controllable through the modulation frequency as an external control parameter.We also recognize a new phenomenon, the so-called "Anti-DCE," in which pair photons can be coherently annihilated due to the time-modulated pumping. We show that the Casimir radiation exhibits quadrature squeezing, photon bunching and super-Poissonian statistics which are controllable by modulation frequency. We also calculate the power spectrum of the intracavity light field. We find that the appearance of the side bands in the spectrum is due to the presence of the CRTs.

  5. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  6. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  7. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  8. FPGA Based Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulated Waveform Generation for Solar (PV) Rural Home Power Inverter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, S N

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing concern about global environmental protection and energy demand due to rapid growth of population in developing countries and the diminishing trend of resources of conventional grid supply, the need to produce freely available pollution free natural energy such as solar/wind energy has been drawing increasing interest in every corner of the world. In an effort to utilize these energies effectively through Power converter, a great deal of research is being carried out by different researchers / scientist and engineers at different places in the world to meet the increasing demand of load. The study presents methodology to integrate solar (PV) energy (which is freely available in every corner of the world) with grid source and supplement the existing grid power in rural houses during its cut off or restricted supply period. In order to get consistency in supply a DG is also added as a standby source in the proposed integration of network. The software using novel Direct PWM modulation strate...

  9. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  11. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  12. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  13. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  14. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  15. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  16. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  18. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  20. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  1. Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts Ronald H. Brown1 that allows long-term natural gas demand signals to be used effect- ively to generate high quality short-term natural gas demand forecasting models. Short data sets in natural gas forecasting inadequately represent

  2. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  3. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  4. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  5. A continuous-time multi-stage noise-shaping delta-sigma modulator for next generation wireless applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yoon, Do Yeon

    2015-01-01

    A continuous-time (CT) delta-sigma ([delta][sigma]) modulator for modern wireless communication applications is investigated in this thesis. Quantization noise is suppressed aggressively by increasing the effective order ...

  6. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  7. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  8. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  9. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  10. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  11. Next Generation Fast RF Interlock Module and ATCA Adapter for ILC High Availability RF Test Station Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, R

    2009-10-17

    High availability interlocks and controls are required for the ILC (International Linear Collider) L-Band high power RF stations. A new F3 (Fast Fault Finder) VME module has been developed to process both fast and slow interlocks using FPGA logic to detect the interlock trip excursions. This combination eliminates the need for separate PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) control of slow interlocks. Modules are chained together to accommodate as many inputs as needed. In the next phase of development the F3's will be ported to the new industry standard ATCA (Advanced Telecom Computing Architecture) crate (shelf) via a specially designed VME adapter module with IPMI (Intelligent Platform Management Interface). The goal is to demonstrate auto-failover and hot-swap for future partially redundant systems.

  12. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  13. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  14. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  15. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  16. Optical single sideband modulation using strong optical injection-locked semiconductor lasers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sung, Hyuk-Kee; Lau, Erwin K.; Wu, Ming C.

    2007-01-01

    generation by direct modulation of optical injection-lockedreported direct SSB modulation from an optically injection-

  17. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  18. Module Handbook Module title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Students learn about selected topics from inorganic chemistry, biochemistry, materials chemistryModule Handbook Module title Module title in English Credits Degree of compulsion Level Learning Theory of Functional Materials 6 Compulsory Basic A systematic foundation for quantum physics

  19. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  20. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  1. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  2. Modulating lignin in plants

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Apuya, Nestor; Bobzin, Steven Craig; Okamuro, Jack; Zhang, Ke

    2013-01-29

    Materials and methods for modulating (e.g., increasing or decreasing) lignin content in plants are disclosed. For example, nucleic acids encoding lignin-modulating polypeptides are disclosed as well as methods for using such nucleic acids to generate transgenic plants having a modulated lignin content.

  3. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J

    2014-12-02

    is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating...

  4. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we studyOptimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation

  5. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  6. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  7. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  8. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  9. Generation Inputs Workshop June 25, 2014

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Inputs Workshop 25 June 2014 BPA's Centralized Wind Power Forecasting Initiative Scott Winner June 25, 2014 Generation Inputs Workshop Predecisional. For Discussion Purposes Only....

  10. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  11. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska Martin Stuefer, Xiande Meng and Gerd Wendler

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stuefer, Martin

    MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska Martin Stuefer, Xiande Meng and Gerd Wendler Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks 1. Abstract Fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) is being used air. Algorithm input data are MM5 forecasted temperature and humidity values at defined pressure

  14. High-efficiency micro-energy generation based on free-carrier-modulated ZnO:N piezoelectric thin films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Eunju; Park, Jaedon; Yim, Munhyuk; Jeong, Sangbeom; Yoon, Giwan, E-mail: gwyoon@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Electrical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-26

    The free-carrier-modulated ZnO:N thin film-based flexible nanogenerators (NZTF-FNGs) are proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The suggested flexible nanogenerators (FNGs) are fabricated using N-doped ZnO thin films (NZTFs) as their piezoelectric active elements, which are deposited by a radio frequency magnetron sputtering technique with an N{sub 2}O reactive gas as an in situ dopant source. Considerable numbers of N atoms are uniformly incorporated into NZTFs overall during their growth, which would enable them to significantly compensate the unintentional background free electron carriers both in the bulk and at the surface of ZnO thin films (ZTFs). This N-doping approach is found to remarkably enhance the performance of NZTF-FNGs, which shows output voltages that are almost two orders of magnitude higher than those of the conventionally grown ZnO thin film-based FNGs. This is believed to be a result of both substantial screening effect suppression in the ZTF bulk and more reliable Schottky barrier formation at the ZTF interfaces, which is all mainly caused by the N-compensatory doping process. Furthermore, the NZTF-FNGs fabricated are verified via charging tests to be suitable for micro-energy harvesting devices.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  16. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-02-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1)). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  17. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  18. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  19. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  20. An adaptive nonlinear MOS scheme for precipitation forecasts using neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    An adaptive nonlinear MOS scheme for precipitation forecasts using neural networks Yuval, William W A novel neural network (NN) based scheme performs nonlinear Model Output Statistics (MOS) for generating

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  3. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  4. Skutterudite Thermoelectric Generator For Automotive Waste Heat...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Skutterudite Thermoelectric Generator For Automotive Waste Heat Recovery Skutterudite Thermoelectric Generator For Automotive Waste Heat Recovery Skutterudite TE modules were...

  5. The Industrialization of Thermoelectric Power Generation Technology...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Industrialization of Thermoelectric Power Generation Technology The Industrialization of Thermoelectric Power Generation Technology Presents module and system requirements for...

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  7. A Model of U.S. Commercial Distributed Generation Adoption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi; Ryan Firestone; Zhou, Nan; Maribu,Karl; Marnay, Chris

    2006-01-10

    Small-scale (100 kW-5 MW) on-site distributed generation (DG) economically driven by combined heat and power (CHP) applications and, in some cases, reliability concerns will likely emerge as a common feature of commercial building energy systems over the next two decades. Forecasts of DG adoption published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) are made using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which has a forecasting module that predicts the penetration of several possible commercial building DG technologies over the period 2005-2025. NEMS is also used for estimating the future benefits of Department of Energy research and development used in support of budget requests and management decisionmaking. The NEMS approach to modeling DG has some limitations, including constraints on the amount of DG allowed for retrofits to existing buildings and a small number of possible sizes for each DG technology. An alternative approach called Commercial Sector Model (ComSeM) is developed to improve the way in which DG adoption is modeled. The approach incorporates load shapes for specific end uses in specific building types in specific regions, e.g., cooling in hospitals in Atlanta or space heating in Chicago offices. The Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) uses these load profiles together with input cost and performance DG technology assumptions to model the potential DG adoption for four selected cities and two sizes of five building types in selected forecast years to 2022. The Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model (DER-MaDiM) is then used to then tailor the DER-CAM results to adoption projections for the entire U.S. commercial sector for all forecast years from 2007-2025. This process is conducted such that the structure of results are consistent with the structure of NEMS, and can be re-injected into NEMS that can then be used to integrate adoption results into a full forecast.

  8. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  9. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  10. Modulated curvaton decay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Assadullahi, Hooshyar; Wands, David [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Firouzjahi, Hassan [School of Astronomy, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), P. O. Box 19395-5531, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein, E-mail: hooshyar.assadullahi@port.ac.uk, E-mail: firouz@mail.ipm.ir, E-mail: mh.namjoo@mail.ipm.ir, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Yukawa Institute for theoretical Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

    2013-03-01

    We study primordial density perturbations generated by the late decay of a curvaton field whose decay rate may be modulated by the local value of another isocurvature field, analogous to models of modulated reheating at the end of inflation. We calculate the primordial density perturbation and its local-type non-Gaussianity using the sudden-decay approximation for the curvaton field, recovering standard curvaton and modulated reheating results as limiting cases. We verify the Suyama-Yamaguchi inequality between bispectrum and trispectrum parameters for the primordial density field generated by multiple field fluctuations, and find conditions for the bound to be saturated.

  11. Generation Following with Thermostatically Controlled Loads via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers Sharing Algorithm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    We present 5-minute wind and solar power forecasts reported6 presents the wind and solar power generation for theimpacts of wind generation on california power systems,”

  12. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  13. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  14. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  15. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  17. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  18. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  19. Method of monolithic module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gee, James M. (Albuquerque, NM); Garrett, Stephen E. (Albuquerque, NM); Morgan, William P. (Albuquerque, NM); Worobey, Walter (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-01-01

    Methods for "monolithic module assembly" which translate many of the advantages of monolithic module construction of thin-film PV modules to wafered c-Si PV modules. Methods employ using back-contact solar cells positioned atop electrically conductive circuit elements affixed to a planar support so that a circuit capable of generating electric power is created. The modules are encapsulated using encapsulant materials such as EVA which are commonly used in photovoltaic module manufacture. The methods of the invention allow multiple cells to be electrically connected in a single encapsulation step rather than by sequential soldering which characterizes the currently used commercial practices.

  20. Global Installed Capacity of Coal Fired Power Generation to Reach...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    offers comprehensive data with regard to the size, growth, and forecast of this market. Coal fired power generation has been a very common energy producing technique for...

  1. The Role of Multimodel Climate Forecasts in Improving Water and Energy Management over the Tana River Basin, Kenya

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    - logical ensembles are used in a reservoir model to allocate water for power generation by ensuring clima. Retrospective reservoir analysis shows that inflow forecasts developed from single GCM and multiple GCMs perform the single- model inflow forecasts by reducing uncertainty and the overconfidence of individual model

  2. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  3. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  4. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  5. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  6. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergy AEnergy Managing SwimmingMicrosoft Word1 2 - 2

  7. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  8. features Utility Generator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Shih-Fu

    #12;#12;#12;#12;features function utility Training Pool Utility Generator Per-frame function content utility classes utility classes utility Tree Decision Generator Module Utility Clustering Adaptive

  9. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  10. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  11. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  12. Development of ultra-broadband modulators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shamir, Orit A

    2008-01-01

    Optical signal modulation is a cornerstone of communication, allowing the transfer of information by electrically encoding data onto an optical carrier. Modulation with ultra-broadband capability enables the generation of ...

  13. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  14. A long pulse 100 microseconds Klystron-Modulator for RF power generation in the Drive Beam Linac of the CLIC Two Beam Linear Collider

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pearce, P

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses the baseline, line-type modulator design being considered for powering the CLIC drive beam klystron RF sources. It is a conventional design but uses recent technology to improve efficiency and reliability. A high voltage pulse-forming network (PFN) charging system with several switched-mode power units in parallel enables a compact modulator layout with efficient conversion of the AC wall plug power into DC charging energy. The high power output stage consists of a simple Rayleigh, multi-cell PFN that is discharged by a thyratron switch, as a high power 100 microseconds long pulse, into the klystron load via a step-up pulse transformer. The parameters of this modulator, for a 3 TeV accelerator design, and suitable for powering an initial 25 MW, 937 MHz, multi-beam klystron are discussed. The parameter changes that will be required for using this modulator with the target design 50 MW multi-beam klystron when it becomes available are also given. The overall emphasis is to build reliability...

  15. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  16. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  18. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  19. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  20. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  1. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  3. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  4. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  6. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  7. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  8. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  9. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  10. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  11. Module Configuration

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Oweis, Salah (Ellicott City, MD); D'Ussel, Louis (Bordeaux, FR); Chagnon, Guy (Cockeysville, MD); Zuhowski, Michael (Annapolis, MD); Sack, Tim (Cockeysville, MD); Laucournet, Gaullume (Paris, FR); Jackson, Edward J. (Taneytown, MD)

    2002-06-04

    A stand alone battery module including: (a) a mechanical configuration; (b) a thermal management configuration; (c) an electrical connection configuration; and (d) an electronics configuration. Such a module is fully interchangeable in a battery pack assembly, mechanically, from the thermal management point of view, and electrically. With the same hardware, the module can accommodate different cell sizes and, therefore, can easily have different capacities. The module structure is designed to accommodate the electronics monitoring, protection, and printed wiring assembly boards (PWAs), as well as to allow airflow through the module. A plurality of modules may easily be connected together to form a battery pack. The parts of the module are designed to facilitate their manufacture and assembly.

  12. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  13. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  14. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  15. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  16. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  17. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  18. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  20. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  1. Power System Modeling of 20percent Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hand, Maureen

    2008-01-01

    fuel price forecast Coal prices follow AEO 2007 referencecoal- and natural gas-based electricity generation analyzed here include decreased natural gas prices,

  2. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  3. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mrig, L. (ed.)

    1990-01-01

    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  4. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  5. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  6. A Java Reinforcement Learning Module for the Recursive Porous

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    A Java Reinforcement Learning Module for the Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit Facilitating Evaluation of free java-libraries for social- scientific agent based simulation, Tobias and Hoffman, 2004 in Repast Genetic Algorithm demo model OpenForecast demo model Java Object Oriented Neural Engine (JOONE

  7. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  8. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  9. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  10. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  11. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED ALGORITHMS TO DETECT, CHARACTERIZE AND FORECAST SOLAR ACTIVITIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . This is critical for determining the non-potentiality of active regions. Solar flares are generated by the sudden earth space environment (so called space weather). In this dissertation, an automated solar flare machine) to forecast the occurrences of solar flares based on photospheric magnetic features. Logistic

  13. Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami Dailin Wang,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duputel, Zacharie

    Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami Dailin Wang,1 Nathan C. Becker,1 David generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epi- center, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States

  14. A KNOWLEDGE-BASED CODE GENERATOR GENERATOR Christopher W. Fraser %

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fraser, Christopher W.

    A KNOWLEDGE-BASED CODE GENERATOR GENERATOR Christopher W. Fraser % Department of Computer Science a good local code generator for an ALGOL-like language. It is organized as a production system of rules generation of compilers. Automatic generation of some compiler modules is already available; for example

  15. Waste Receiving and Processing Facility Module 2A: Advanced Conceptual Design Report. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This ACDR was performed following completed of the Conceptual Design Report in July 1992; the work encompassed August 1992 to January 1994. Mission of the WRAP Module 2A facility is to receive, process, package, certify, and ship for permanent burial at the Hanford site disposal facilities the Category 1 and 3 contact handled low-level radioactive mixed wastes that are currently in retrievable storage at Hanford and are forecast to be generated over the next 30 years by Hanford, and waste to be shipped to Hanford from about DOE sites. This volume provides an introduction to the ACDR process and the scope of the task along with a project summary of the facility, treatment technologies, cost, and schedule. Major areas of departure from the CDR are highlighted. Descriptions of the facility layout and operations are included.

  16. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Number: AC05-76RL01830 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: IEEE PES General Meeting, Conference & Exposition, July 27-31, 2014, National Harbor, MD...

  17. OpenEI Community - Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History ViewMayo, Maryland:NPI VenturesNewSt.Information OlindaOnslow County,OpTICOpenBarter Jump

  18. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoopButtePower Ventures Jump to: navigation, searchClover Hill High

  19. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory of rare Kaon and(Conference) |Article)(Technical Report)Theory (Conference)

  20. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  1. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  2. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  8. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  9. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  10. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  11. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  12. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  13. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  14. Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Solar Dataset (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hummon, M.

    2014-04-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory produced solar power production data for the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) including "real time" 5-minute interval data, "four hour ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data, and "day-ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data for the year 2006. This presentation provides a brief overview of the three solar power datasets.

  15. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  16. ZBB EnerStore(tm): Deep Discharge Zinc-Bromine Battery Module...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Battery Module Long-Lasting Electrical Energy Storage Module Allows Off-Peak Power Generation Electricity consumption during peak demand can overload utilities, forcing them to...

  17. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  18. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  19. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  20. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  1. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  2. Solid state pulsed power generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tao, Fengfeng; Saddoughi, Seyed Gholamali; Herbon, John Thomas

    2014-02-11

    A power generator includes one or more full bridge inverter modules coupled to a semiconductor opening switch (SOS) through an inductive resonant branch. Each module includes a plurality of switches that are switched in a fashion causing the one or more full bridge inverter modules to drive the semiconductor opening switch SOS through the resonant circuit to generate pulses to a load connected in parallel with the SOS.

  3. Thermionic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    King, Donald B. (Albuquerque, NM); Sadwick, Laurence P. (Salt Lake City, UT); Wernsman, Bernard R. (Clairton, PA)

    2002-06-18

    Modules of assembled microminiature thermionic converters (MTCs) having high energy-conversion efficiencies and variable operating temperatures manufactured using MEMS manufacturing techniques including chemical vapor deposition. The MTCs incorporate cathode to anode spacing of about 1 micron or less and use cathode and anode materials having work functions ranging from about 1 eV to about 3 eV. The MTCs also exhibit maximum efficiencies of just under 30%, and thousands of the devices and modules can be fabricated at modest costs.

  4. Module No: 420244International Humanitarian Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 420244International Humanitarian law Module Title: Co-requisite:public international law 1Pre-requisite: Module Type: specialization requirementModule level: Second year Evening Study-mailOffice Number Office Phone Academic rank Instructor Name E-mailOffice Number Office Phone Academic rank Module

  5. CEC C Generator Stephen A. Edwards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : for debugging void generateC(std::ostream &o, Module &m, string basename, bool ansi) { CPrinter::Printer p(o, m::Error("Module is not in GRC format"); o ansi) o ANSI mode "; else o

  6. module.h

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /* OS-9 module header definitions */ /* Executable memory module */ typedef struct { unsigned m_sync, /* sync bytes ($87cd) */ m_size, /* module size ...

  7. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  8. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  9. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  10. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  11. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  12. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  13. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  14. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  15. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  18. Microscale autonomous sensor and communications module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Okandan, Murat; Nielson, Gregory N

    2014-03-25

    Various technologies pertaining to a microscale autonomous sensor and communications module are described herein. Such a module includes a sensor that generates a sensor signal that is indicative of an environmental parameter. An integrated circuit receives the sensor signal and generates an output signal based at least in part upon the sensor signal. An optical emitter receives the output signal and generates an optical signal as a function of the output signal. An energy storage device is configured to provide power to at least the integrated circuit and the optical emitter, and wherein the module has a relatively small diameter and thickness.

  19. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  20. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  1. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  2. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  3. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  4. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  5. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  6. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  7. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  8. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  9. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  10. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  11. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  12. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  13. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  14. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  17. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  18. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  19. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  20. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  1. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  2. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  3. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Capacity Planning submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The NEMS produces integrated forecasts for energy markets in the United States by achieving a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand. Currently, for each year during the period from 1990 through 2010, the NEMS describes energy supply, conversion, consumption, and pricing. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The supply of electricity is a conversion activity since electricity is produced from other energy sources (e.g., fossil, nuclear, and renewable). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. The EMM consists of four main submodules: Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP), Electricity Fuel Dispatching (EFD), Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP), and Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM). The ECP evaluates changes in the mix of generating capacity that are necessary to meet future demands for electricity and comply with environmental regulations. The EFD represents dispatching (i.e., operating) decisions and determines how to allocate available capacity to meet the current demand for electricity. Using investment expenditures from the ECP and operating costs from the EFD, the EFP calculates the price of electricity, accounting for state-level regulations involving the allocation of costs. The LDSM translates annual demands for electricity into distributions that describe hourly, seasonal, and time-of-day variations. These distributions are used by the EFD and the ECP to determine the quantity and types of generating capacity that are required to insure reliable and economical supplies of electricity. The EMM also represents nonutility suppliers and interregional and international transmission and trade. These activities are included in the EFD and the ECP.

  4. Thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kortier, William E. (Columbus, OH); Mueller, John J. (Columbus, OH); Eggers, Philip E. (Columbus, OH)

    1980-07-08

    A thermoelectric module containing lead telluride as the thermoelectric mrial is encapsulated as tightly as possible in a stainless steel canister to provide minimum void volume in the canister. The lead telluride thermoelectric elements are pressure-contacted to a tungsten hot strap and metallurgically bonded at the cold junction to iron shoes with a barrier layer of tin telluride between the iron shoe and the p-type lead telluride element.

  5. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  6. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  7. Approved Module Information for CE1004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process and Product Design Module Code: CE1004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    . * Concept of scale * Product innovation - customer needs, ideas generation, ideas selection, productApproved Module Information for CE1004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process and Product Design Module on a realistic project Product Design * To understand the difference between commodity and speciality chemicals

  8. Approved Module Information for EE1TEL, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Theory of Electricity Module Code: EE1TEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    with: * An understanding of the fundamentals laws of electromagnetism and their applications. AbilityApproved Module Information for EE1TEL, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Theory of Electricity Module Code to deal with basic theoretical problems of electromagnetism. * An understanding of the generation

  9. Module Information for EE1TEL, 2015/6 -APPROVED Module Title/Name: Theory of Electricity Module Code: EE1TEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rebollo-Neira, Laura

    : * An understanding of the fundamentals laws of electromagnetism and their applications. Ability to deal with basicModule Information for EE1TEL, 2015/6 - APPROVED Module Title/Name: Theory of Electricity Module theoretical problems of electromagnetism. * An understanding of the generation of electricity and operation

  10. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Lenox, Carl J. S.; Culligan, Matthew; Danning, Matt

    2013-08-27

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame, The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  11. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Lenox, Carl J. S. (Oakland, CA); Culligan, Matthew (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2012-07-17

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame. The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  12. WRAP Module 1 sampling and analysis plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mayancsik, B.A.

    1995-03-24

    This document provides the methodology to sample, screen, and analyze waste generated, processed, or otherwise the responsibility of the Waste Receiving and Processing Module 1 facility. This includes Low-Level Waste, Transuranic Waste, Mixed Waste, and Dangerous Waste.

  13. Tailored Terahertz Pulses from a Laser-Modulated Electron Beam

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Tailored Terahertz Pulses from a Laser-Modulated Electron Beam Print Researchers at the ALS have demonstrated a new method to generate tunable, coherent, broadband terahertz...

  14. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  16. Abstract--We present new approaches for 5-minute ahead electricity load forecasting. They were evaluated on data from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koprinska, Irena

    .e. the cheapest generator is allocated first, the second cheapest next and so on until the electricity demandAbstract--We present new approaches for 5-minute ahead electricity load forecasting. They were evaluated on data from the Australian electricity market operator for 2006-2008. After examining the load

  17. Development of an Air-Source Heat Pump Integrated with a Water Heating / Dehumidification Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, C Keith; Uselton, Robert B.; Shen, Bo; Baxter, Van D; Shrestha, Som S

    2014-01-01

    A residential-sized dual air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) concept is under development in partnership between ORNL and a manufacturer. The concept design consists of a two-stage air-source heat pump (ASHP) coupled on the air distribution side with a separate novel water heating/dehumidification (WH/DH) module. The motivation for this unusual equipment combination is the forecast trend for home sensible loads to be reduced more than latent loads. Integration of water heating with a space dehumidification cycle addresses humidity control while performing double-duty. This approach can be applied to retrofit/upgrade applications as well as new construction. A WH/DH module capable of ~1.47 L/h water removal and ~2 kW water heating capacity was assembled by the manufacturer. A heat pump system model was used to guide the controls design; lab testing was conducted and used to calibrate the models. Performance maps were generated and used in a TRNSYS sub-hourly simulation to predict annual performance in a well-insulated house. Annual HVAC/WH energy savings of ~35% are predicted in cold and hot-humid U.S. climates compared to a minimum efficiency baseline.

  18. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  19. The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S. [University of Athens, Physics Department, Section of Nuclear and Particle Physics, Zografos 15771 Athens (Greece); Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V. [IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, 1420092 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-08-25

    The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

  20. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  1. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  2. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  5. Supported PV module assembly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mascolo, Gianluigi; Taggart, David F.; Botkin, Jonathan D.; Edgett, Christopher S.

    2013-10-15

    A supported PV assembly may include a PV module comprising a PV panel and PV module supports including module supports having a support surface supporting the module, a module registration member engaging the PV module to properly position the PV module on the module support, and a mounting element. In some embodiments the PV module registration members engage only the external surfaces of the PV modules at the corners. In some embodiments the assembly includes a wind deflector with ballast secured to a least one of the PV module supports and the wind deflector. An array of the assemblies can be secured to one another at their corners to prevent horizontal separation of the adjacent corners while permitting the PV modules to flex relative to one another so to permit the array of PV modules to follow a contour of the support surface.

  6. Module Embedding Atanas Radenski

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Radenski, Atanas

    Module Embedding 1 Atanas Radenski Computer Science Department UNC-WSSU, P. O. Box 19479 Winston module embedding that enables the building of new modules from existing ones through inheritance for this mechanism. Module embedding is beneficial when modules and classes are used in combination and need

  7. Post-editing is commonly performed on computer-generated texts, whether from Machine Translation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that generates textual weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. The forecasts are marine in Table 2 are mostly based on the NWP data in Table 1. Time Wind Dir Wind Spd 10m Wind Spd 50m Gust 10m.0 Table 1. Weather Data produced by an NWP model for 12- Jun 2002 Evaluation of an NLG System using Post

  8. Working with Modules within Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Modules within Python The EnvironmentModules python package gives access to the module system from within python. The EnvironmentModules python package has a single...

  9. Echo-Enabled Harmonic Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stupakov, Gennady; /SLAC

    2012-06-28

    A recently proposed concept of the Echo-Enabled Harmonic Generation (EEHG) FEL uses two laser modulators in combination with two dispersion sections to generate a high-harmonic density modulation in a relativistic beam. This seeding technique holds promise of a one-stage soft x-ray FEL that radiates not only transversely but also longitudinally coherent pulses. Currently, an experimental verification of the concept is being conducted at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory aimed at the demonstration of the EEHG.

  10. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  12. Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Haiyan

    Severe Weather on the Web: Computer Lab for WEST Severe Weather Module Summary: Students Weather Service-- National Weather Hazards Website: http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php --This termforecasts in the lower 48 USstates. Definitions Forecast--The prediction of what the weather

  13. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  14. Code division multiple access signaling for modulated reflector technology

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Briles, Scott D. (Los Alamos, NM)

    2012-05-01

    A method and apparatus for utilizing code division multiple access in modulated reflectance transmissions comprises the steps of generating a phase-modulated reflectance data bit stream; modifying the modulated reflectance data bit stream; providing the modified modulated reflectance data bit stream to a switch that connects an antenna to an infinite impedance in the event a "+1" is to be sent, or connects the antenna to ground in the event a "0" or a "-1" is to be sent.

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  16. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  17. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  18. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  19. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  20. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  1. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  2. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  3. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  4. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  5. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  6. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  9. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  13. Ballasted photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2011-11-29

    A photovoltaic (PV) module assembly including a PV module and a ballast tray. The PV module includes a PV device and a frame. A PV laminate is assembled to the frame, and the frame includes an arm. The ballast tray is adapted for containing ballast and is removably associated with the PV module in a ballasting state where the tray is vertically under the PV laminate and vertically over the arm to impede overt displacement of the PV module. The PV module assembly can be installed to a flat commercial rooftop, with the PV module and the ballast tray both resting upon the rooftop. In some embodiments, the ballasting state includes corresponding surfaces of the arm and the tray being spaced from one another under normal (low or no wind) conditions, such that the frame is not continuously subjected to a weight of the tray.

  14. Shield Module Design Considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    Shield Module Design Considerations Adam Carroll Van Graves July 3, 2014 #12;2 Managed by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy Shield Module Design Considerations 3 July 2014 Overview · Capability to remotely remove and reinstall the shield modules is required · Shield module concept is He-cooled tungsten

  15. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  16. Agilent E8267D PSG Vector Signal Generator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anlage, Steven

    Agilent E8267D PSG Vector Signal Generator Data Sheet The Agilent E8267D is a fully synthesized signal generator with high output power, low phase noise, and I/Q modulation capability. Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Internal pulse generator

  17. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  18. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  19. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  20. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  1. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  2. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  3. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  4. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  5. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  6. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  7. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  9. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  10. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  11. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  12. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  13. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  14. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  15. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  16. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  17. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  18. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  3. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  4. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  5. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  6. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  7. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    type of power plant and on the generating capacity of eachplant would therma.l storage system, This would permit extended use of solar thennal We energy for generating

  8. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  9. The International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and the Coastal Hazards Symposium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Breivik, Øyvind; Babanin, Alexander; Horsburgh, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

  10. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  11. In-line thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pento, Robert (Algonquin, IL); Marks, James E. (Glenville, NY); Staffanson, Clifford D. (S. Glens Falls, NY)

    2000-01-01

    A thermoelectric module with a plurality of electricity generating units each having a first end and a second end, the units being arranged first end to second end along an in-line axis. Each unit includes first and second elements each made of a thermoelectric material, an electrically conductive hot member arranged to heat one side of the first element, and an electrically conductive cold member arranged to cool another side of the first element and to cool one side of the second element. The hot member, the first element, the cold member and the second element are supported in a fixture, are electrically connected respectively to provide an electricity generating unit, and are arranged respectively in positions along the in-line axis. The individual components of each generating unit and the respective generating units are clamped in their in-line positions by a loading bolt at one end of the fixture and a stop wall at the other end of the fixture. The hot members may have a T-shape and the cold members an hourglass shape to facilitate heat transfer. The direction of heat transfer through the hot members may be perpendicular to the direction of heat transfer through the cold members, and both of these heat transfer directions may be perpendicular to the direction of current flow through the module.

  12. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  15. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  16. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  17. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  18. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  19. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  20. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  1. Module Information for EE1F05, 2015/6 -APPROVED Module Title/Name: Principles of Electrical Engineering Module Code: EE1F05

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rebollo-Neira, Laura

    Module Information for EE1F05, 2015/6 - APPROVED Module Title/Name: Principles of Electrical Power Engineering (Distribution). FD in Electrical Power Engineering (Generation). FD in Electrical Level Description: Cert He/Level 4 (Enhanced Honours) Programmes in which available: FD Electrical Power

  2. Approved Module Information for EE1F05, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Electrical Engineering Module Code: EE1F05

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rebollo-Neira, Laura

    Approved Module Information for EE1F05, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Electrical in Electrical Power Engineering (Generation). FD in Electrical Power Engineering (Transmission). Foundation Honours) Programmes in which available: FD Electrical Power Eng' (Construction Management). FD Electrical

  3. Approved Module Information for EE2ESE, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Electrical Systems Engineering Module Code: EE2ESE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    fundamentals and mathematical description of power electronics and transmission of electric signals. * Ability of electromagnetism * electricity generation, power electronics, simple motors and machines * Ability to describeApproved Module Information for EE2ESE, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Electrical Systems Engineering

  4. Module Information for EE2ESE, 2015/6 -APPROVED Module Title/Name: Electrical Systems Engineering Module Code: EE2ESE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rebollo-Neira, Laura

    of theoretical fundamentals and mathematical description of power electronics and transmission of electric * the laws of electromagnetism * electricity generation, power electronics, simple motors and machinesModule Information for EE2ESE, 2015/6 - APPROVED Module Title/Name: Electrical Systems Engineering

  5. Advanced silicon photonic modulators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sorace, Cheryl M

    2010-01-01

    Various electrical and optical schemes used in Mach-Zehnder (MZ) silicon plasma dispersion effect modulators are explored. A rib waveguide reverse biased silicon diode modulator is designed, tested and found to operate at ...

  6. Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art B. Espinar, J.L. Aznarte, R. Girard, A.M. Moussa and G. Kariniotakis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art B. Espinar, J.L. Aznarte, R. Girard, A.M. Moussa and G(0)493678967; FAX: +33 (0)493957535,bella.espinar@mines-paristech.fr Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) energy, together Introduction Photovoltaics (PV) for electricity generation is the fastest-growing energy technology since 2002

  7. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  8. Diophantine Generation,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shlapentokh, Alexandra

    Diophantine Generation, Horizontal and Vertical Problems, and the Weak Vertical Method Alexandra Shlapentokh Diophantine Sets, Definitions and Generation Diophantine Sets Diophantine Generation Properties of Diophantine Generation Diophantine Family of Z Diophantine Family of a Polynomial Ring Going Down Horizontal

  9. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  10. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  11. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  13. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  14. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  15. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  16. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  17. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  18. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  19. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  20. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  1. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  2. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  3. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  4. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  5. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  6. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  7. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  8. Nuclear power generation and fuel cycle report 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    This report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the worldwide nuclear fuel market. Long term projections of U.S. nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed. A discussion on decommissioning of nuclear power plants is included.

  9. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  10. Criticality calculations for Step-2 GPHS modules.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hensen, Danielle Lynn; Lipinski, Ronald J.

    2007-08-01

    The Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) will use an improved version of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) module as its source of thermal power. This new version, referred to as the Step-2 GPHS Module, has additional and thicker layers of carbon fiber material (Fine Weaved Pierced Fabric) for increased strength over the original GPHS module. The GPHS uses alpha decay of {sup 238}Pu in the oxide form as the primary source of heat, and small amounts of other actinides are also present in the oxide fuel. Criticality calculations have been performed by previous researchers on the original version of the GPHS module (Step 0). This paper presents criticality calculations for the present Step-2 version. The Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code (MCNPX) was used for these calculations. Numerous configurations of GPHS module arrays surrounded by wet sand and other materials (to reflect the neutrons back into the stack with minimal absorption) were modeled. For geometries with eight GPHS modules (from a single MMRTG) surrounded by wet sand, the configuration is extremely sub-critical; k{sub eff} is about 0.3. It requires about 1000 GPHS modules (from 125 MMRTGs) in a close-spaced stack to approach criticality (k{sub eff} = 1.0) when surrounded by wet sand. The effect of beryllium in the MMRTG was found to be relatively small.

  11. Criticality Calculations for Step-2 GPHS Modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipinski, Ronald J. [Advanced Nuclear Concepts Department, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185 (United States); Hensen, Danielle L. [Risk and Reliability Department Sandia National Laboratories, P.O Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185 (United States)

    2008-01-21

    The Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) will use an improved version of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) module as its source of thermal power. This new version, referred to as the Step-2 GPHS Module, has additional and thicker layers of carbon fiber material (Fine Weaved Pierced Fabric) for increased strength over the original GPHS module. The GPHS uses alpha decay of {sup 238}Pu in the oxide form as the primary source of heat, and small amounts of other actinides are also present in the oxide fuel. Criticality calculations have been performed by previous researchers on the original version of the GPHS module (Step 0). This paper presents criticality calculations for the present Step-2 version. The Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code (MCNPX) was used for these calculations. Numerous configurations of GPHS module arrays surrounded by wet sand and other materials (to reflect the neutrons back into the stack with minimal absorption) were modeled. For geometries with eight GPHS modules (from a single MMRTG) surrounded by wet sand, the configuration is extremely sub-critical; k{sub eff} is about 0.3. It requires about 1000 GPHS modules (from 125 MMRTGs) in a close-spaced stack to approach criticality (k{sub eff} = 1.0) when surrounded by wet sand. The effect of beryllium in the MMRTG was found to be relatively small.

  12. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  13. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  14. Mechanisms of amplitude modulation in wind turbine , A. J. Bullmoreb

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Mechanisms of amplitude modulation in wind turbine noise M. Smitha , A. J. Bullmoreb , M. M. Candb produced by wind turbines is inherently time varying. This amplitude modulation is normally due The environmental noise impact of wind turbine generators has to be assessed when planning new installations

  15. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  16. Force Modulator System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redmond Clark

    2009-04-30

    Many metal parts manufacturers use large metal presses to shape sheet metal into finished products like car body parts, jet wing and fuselage surfaces, etc. These metal presses take sheet metal and - with enormous force - reshape the metal into a fully formed part in a manner of seconds. Although highly efficient, the forces involved in forming metal parts also damage the press itself, limit the metals used in part production, slow press operations and, when not properly controlled, cause the manufacture of large volumes of defective metal parts. To date, the metal-forming industry has not been able to develop a metal-holding technology that allows full control of press forces during the part forming process. This is of particular importance in the automotive lightweighting efforts under way in the US automotive manufacturing marketplace. Metalforming Controls Technology Inc. (MC2) has developed a patented press control system called the Force Modulator that has the ability to control these press forces, allowing a breakthrough in stamping process control. The technology includes a series of hydraulic cylinders that provide controlled tonnage at all points in the forming process. At the same time, the unique cylinder design allows for the generation of very high levels of clamping forces (very high tonnages) in very small spaces; a requirement for forming medium and large panels out of HSS and AHSS. Successful production application of these systems testing at multiple stamping operations - including Ford and Chrysler - has validated the capabilities and economic benefits of the system. Although this technology has been adopted in a number of stamping operations, one of the primary barriers to faster adoption and application of this technology in HSS projects is system cost. The cost issue has surfaced because the systems currently in use are built for each individual die as a custom application, thus driving higher tooling costs. This project proposed to better marry the die-specific Force Modulator technology with stamping presses in the form of a press cushion. This system would be designed to operate the binder ring for multiple parts, thus cutting the per-die cost of the technology. This study reports the results of technology field application. This project produced the following conclusions: (1) The Force Modulator system is capable of operating at very high tempos in the stamping environment; (2) The company can generate substantial, controlled holding tonnage (binder ring pressure) necessary to hold high strength steel parts for proper formation during draw operations; (3) A single system can be designed to operate with a family of parts, thus significantly reducing the per-die cost of a FM system; (4) High strength steel parts made with these systems appear to show significant quality improvements; (5) The amounts of steel required to make these parts is typically less than the amounts required with traditional blank-holding technologies; and (6) This technology will aid in the use of higher strength steels in auto and truck production, thus reducing weight and improving fuel efficiency.

  17. Ultrasound-modulated optical tomography for biomedical applications 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Jun

    2004-11-15

    I experimentally studied ultrasound-modulated optical tomography, which holds the promise for biomedical diagnosis. I measured the degree of polarization of laser speckles generated by scattered light transmitted through ...

  18. High speed optical quantum random number generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weinfurter, Harald

    High speed optical quantum random number generation Martin F¨urst1,2,, Henning Weier1,2, Sebastian/publicationFile/30276/ais20 pdf.pdf (1999). 2. "Fips 140-2, security requirements for cryptographic modules

  19. Data-driven spectral decomposition and forecasting of ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    We develop a framework for dimension reduction, mode decomposition, and nonparametric forecasting of data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. This framework is based on a representation of the Koopman group of unitary operators in a smooth orthonormal basis of the L2 space of the dynamical system, acquired from time-ordered data through the diffusion maps algorithm. Using this representation, we compute Koopman eigenfunctions through a regularized advection-diffusion operator, and employ these eigenfunctions in dimension reduction maps with projectible dynamics and high smoothness for the given observation modality. In systems with pure point spectra, we construct a decomposition of the generator of the Koopman group into mutually commuting vector fields, which we reconstruct in data space through a representation of the pushforward map in the Koopman eigenfunction basis. We also use a special property of this basis, namely that the basis elements evolve as simple harmonic oscillators, to build nonparamet...

  20. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  3. Distributed Generation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electricity, US Data. 6. Distributed Generation: Standby Generation and Cogeneration Ozz Energy Solutions, Inc. February 28 th , 2005. For more information about...

  4. Bracket for photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ciasulli, John; Jones, Jason

    2014-06-24

    Brackets for photovoltaic ("PV") modules are described. In one embodiment, a saddle bracket has a mounting surface to support one or more PV modules over a tube, a gusset coupled to the mounting surface, and a mounting feature coupled to the gusset to couple to the tube. The gusset can have a first leg and a second leg extending at an angle relative to the mounting surface. Saddle brackets can be coupled to a torque tube at predetermined locations. PV modules can be coupled to the saddle brackets. The mounting feature can be coupled to the first gusset and configured to stand the one or more PV modules off the tube.

  5. Module No: 410336Personal Statutes for Non-Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 410336Personal Statutes for Non- Muslims Module Title: Co-requisite:Introduction of Islamic Jurisprudence Pre-requisite: Module Type: specialization requirementModule level: Third Year Academic rank Module coordinator 307384Assistant Professor Dr. Fuad Sartawi ResearchTutorial Guidance

  6. Module No: 410319Copyrights and Neighboring Module Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Module No: 410319Copyrights and Neighboring Rights Module Title: Co-requisite:Effects of ObligationsPre-requisite: Module Type: specialization elective requirementModule level: Third Year Evening Academic rank Module coordinator e-bataineh@philadelphia.edu.joAssistant Professor Dr. Iyad Bataineh

  7. Laminated photovoltaic modules using back-contact solar cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gee, James M. (Albuquerque, NM); Garrett, Stephen E. (Albuquerque, NM); Morgan, William P. (Albuquerque, NM); Worobey, Walter (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-09-14

    Photovoltaic modules which comprise back-contact solar cells, such as back-contact crystalline silicon solar cells, positioned atop electrically conductive circuit elements affixed to a planar support so that a circuit capable of generating electric power is created. The modules are encapsulated using encapsulant materials such as EVA which are commonly used in photovoltaic module manufacture. The module designs allow multiple cells to be electrically connected in a single encapsulation step rather than by sequential soldering which characterizes the currently used commercial practices.

  8. Approved Module Information for PD2003, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles 2 Module Code: PD2003

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PD2003, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Engineering Principles 2 Module Code: PD2003 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module? No Module Dependancies Pre-requisites: Engineering Principles (PD1803). Co-requisites: None Specified Module

  9. Approved Module Information for BF2210, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Making Managerial Decisions Module Code: BF2210

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2210, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Making Managerial Decisions Module Code: BF2210 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Florian Gebreiter Email Address gebreif1

  10. Approved Module Information for LPM040, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rethinking European Integration Module Code: LPM040

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LPM040, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rethinking European Integration Module Code: LPM040 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Nathaniel Copsey Email Address n

  11. Approved Module Information for LEM039, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar Module Code: LEM039

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LEM039, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar Module Code: LEM039 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Urszula Clark Email Address u

  12. Approved Module Information for LS3006, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Hispanic Film Module Code: LS3006

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LS3006, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Hispanic Film Module Code: LS3006 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Raquel Medina Email Address r

  13. Approved Module Information for LT2102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Inventory Control Module Code: LT2102

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT2102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Inventory Control Module Code: LT2102 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name James Stone Email Address j

  14. Approved Module Information for PY2217, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Personality Practical (JH) Module Code: PY2217

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY2217, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Personality Practical (JH) Module Code: PY2217 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ed Walford Email Address e

  15. Approved Module Information for BS3347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Economics of Entrepreneurship Module Code: BS3347

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS3347, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Economics of Entrepreneurship Module Code: BS3347 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Anna Rebmann Email Address rebmanna

  16. Approved Module Information for PY3351, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Child Development Module Code: PY3351

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY3351, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Child Development Module Code: PY3351 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Claire Farrow Email Address farrowc

  17. Approved Module Information for CE2110, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process Laboratory Module Code: CE2110

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE2110, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Process Laboratory Module Code: CE2110 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name John Brammer Email Address brammejg

  18. Approved Module Information for LK2004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Global Society Module Code: LK2004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LK2004, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Global Society Module Code: LK2004 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Demelza Jones Email Address jonesd4@aston

  19. Approved Module Information for CH3117, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Research Project Module Code: CH3117

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CH3117, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Research Project Module Code: CH3117 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Andrew James Sutherland Email Address

  20. Approved Module Information for LE1008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar & Meaning Module Code: LE1008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE1008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Grammar & Meaning Module Code: LE1008 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jack Grieve Email Address grievej1

  1. Approved Module Information for BN3385, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Effective Project Delivery Module Code: BN3385

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BN3385, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Effective Project Delivery Module Code: BN3385 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Panagiotis Petridis Email Address petridip

  2. Approved Module Information for BS1163, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Introduction to Microeconomics Module Code: BS1163

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS1163, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Introduction to Microeconomics Module Code: BS1163 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Morris Email Address morrisd5@aston

  3. Approved Module Information for LEM016, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Methodology Module Code: LEM016

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LEM016, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Methodology Module Code: LEM016 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Muna Morris-Adams Email Address adamsmm

  4. Approved Module Information for BF2251, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Financial Management Module Code: BF2251

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2251, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Financial Management Module Code: BF2251 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  5. Approved Module Information for LT2315, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rail Transport Module Code: LT2315

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT2315, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Rail Transport Module Code: LT2315 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name P Connor Email Address connorp

  6. Approved Module Information for ME2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Quality Engineering Module Code: ME2018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Quality Engineering Module Code: ME2018 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Upton Email Address uptondp

  7. Approved Module Information for LI2008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Communication across Cultures Module Code: LI2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LI2008, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Communication across Cultures Module Code: LI2008 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Olga Castro Email Address o

  8. Approved Module Information for CE4018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Advanced Particle Processing Module Code: CE4018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE4018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Advanced Particle Processing Module Code: CE4018 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Mark Leaper Email Address m

  9. Approved Module Information for SE4031, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Extended Integrative Option Module Code: SE4031

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for SE4031, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Extended Integrative Option Module Code: SE4031 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 30 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Trevor Oliver Email Address t

  10. Approved Module Information for LT1312, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Review Project Module Code: LT1312

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1312, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Literature Review Project Module Code: LT1312 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Carpenter Email Address d

  11. Approved Module Information for LS2017, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Contemporary Latin America Module Code: LS2017

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LS2017, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Contemporary Latin America Module Code: LS2017 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Stephanie Panichelli-Batalla Email Address

  12. Approved Module Information for CE3013, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Particle Processing Module Code: CE3013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3013, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Particle Processing Module Code: CE3013 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Mark Leaper Email Address m

  13. Approved Module Information for LE2057, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Computer Mediated Communication Module Code: LE2057

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE2057, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Computer Mediated Communication Module Code: LE2057 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Nur Hooton Email Address n

  14. Approved Module Information for BS3325, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Competition Policy -Theory Module Code: BS3325

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BS3325, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Competition Policy - Theory Module Code: BS3325 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Matt Olczak Email Address olczakm

  15. Approved Module Information for BL1179, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Accounting for Law Module Code: BL1179

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BL1179, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Accounting for Law Module Code: BL1179 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Angela Stanhope Email Address a

  16. Approved Module Information for BFM120, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investment Management Module Code: BFM120

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BFM120, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investment Management Module Code: BFM120 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  17. Approved Module Information for PY2216, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Neuroscience Practicals Module Code: PY2216

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY2216, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Neuroscience Practicals Module Code: PY2216 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Yes Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ed Walford Email Address e

  18. Approved Module Information for BHM348, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Employee Relations & Counselling Module Code: BHM348

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM348, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Employee Relations & Counselling Module Code: BHM348 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name M Carter Email Address cartermr

  19. Approved Module Information for LT1307, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Economics Module Code: LT1307

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1307, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Principles of Economics Module Code: LT1307 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name David Carpenter Email Address d

  20. Approved Module Information for ME2050, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Dynamics and Control Module Code: ME2050

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for ME2050, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Dynamics and Control Module Code: ME2050 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Xianghong Ma Email Address max

  1. Approved Module Information for BHM328, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Business Sustainability Module Code: BHM328

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BHM328, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Business Sustainability Module Code: BHM328 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 15 Module Management Information Module Leader Name H Borland Email Address borlanhm

  2. Approved Module Information for BF2244, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Finance Module Code: BF2244

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF2244, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Strategic Finance Module Code: BF2244 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Colin Chapman Email Address chapmac1@aston

  3. Approved Module Information for CE3102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Engineering Module Code: CE3102

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3102, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Reaction Engineering Module Code: CE3102 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Feroz Kabir Email Address kabirf

  4. Approved Module Information for LE2053, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Variations of English Module Code: LE2053

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LE2053, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Variations of English Module Code: LE2053 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jack Grieve Email Address grievej1

  5. Approved Module Information for BF3314, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Derivatives Module Code: BF3314

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BF3314, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Derivatives Module Code: BF3314 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Winifred Huang-Meier Email Address w

  6. Approved Module Information for PY3472, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Autistic Spectrum Module Code: PY3472

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PY3472, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Autistic Spectrum Module Code: PY3472 School: Life and Health Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Gina Rippon Email Address rippong@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  7. Approved Module Information for CE3112, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Nanomaterials Module Code: CE3112

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE3112, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Nanomaterials Module Code: CE3112 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Qingchun Yuan Email Address q.yuan@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  8. Approved Module Information for CE1002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Design and Build Module Code: CE1002

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for CE1002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Design and Build Module Code: CE1002 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Paul Andrew Tack Email Address tackpa

  9. Approved Module Information for LG2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Metropolis Berlin Module Code: LG2018

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LG2018, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Metropolis Berlin Module Code: LG2018 School: Languages and Social Sciences Module Type: Standard Module New Module? Not Specified Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Uwe Schütte Email Address u

  10. Approved Module Information for PD2002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Commercial Practice Module Code: PD2002

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for PD2002, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Commercial Practice Module Code: PD2002 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 20 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Jon Hewitt Email Address Not Specified

  11. Approved Module Information for BN2290, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Operational Research Techniques Module Code: BN2290

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for BN2290, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Operational Research Techniques Module Code: BN2290 School: Aston Business School Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name Ozren Despic Email Address o

  12. Approved Module Information for LT1319, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Air Transport Module Code: LT1319

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    Approved Module Information for LT1319, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Air Transport Module Code: LT1319 School: Engineering and Applied Science Module Type: Standard Module New Module? No Module Credits: 10 Module Management Information Module Leader Name James Stone Email Address j.stone@aston.ac.uk Telephone

  13. Protective, Modular Wave Power Generation System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vvedensky, Jane M.; Park, Robert Y.

    2012-11-27

    The concept of small wave energy conversion modules that can be built into large, scalable arrays, in the same vein as solar panels, has been developed. This innovation lends itself to an organic business and development model, and enables the use of large-run manufacturing technology to reduce system costs. The first prototype module has been built to full-scale, and tested in a laboratory wave channel. The device has been shown to generate electricity and dissipate wave energy. Improvements need to be made to the electrical generator and a demonstration of an array of modules should be made in natural conditions.

  14. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  15. Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Presents concept for hermetic encapsulation of TE modules...

  16. WRAP Module 1 waste characterization plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mayancsik, B.A.

    1995-01-23

    The purpose of this document is to present the characterization methodology for waste generated, processed, or otherwise the responsibility of the Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) Module 1 facility. The scope of this document includes all solid low level waste (LLW), transuranic (TRU), mixed waste (MW), and dangerous waste. This document is not meant to be all-inclusive of the waste processed or generated within WRAP Module 1, but to present a methodology for characterization. As other streams are identified, the method of characterization will be consistent with the other streams identified in this plan. The WRAP Module 1 facility is located in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Site. The facility`s function is two-fold. The first is to verify/characterize, treat and repackage contact handled (CH) waste currently in retrievable storage in the LLW Burial Grounds, Hanford Central Waste Complex, and the Transuranic Storage and Assay Facility (TRUSAF). The second is to verify newly generated CH TRU waste and LLW, including MW. The WRAP Module 1 facility provides NDE and NDA of the waste for both drums and boxes. The NDE is used to identify the physical contents of the waste containers to support waste characterization and processing, verification, or certification. The NDA results determine the radioactive content and distribution of the waste.

  17. Automated Manufacturing of High Efficiency Modules: Final Subcontract Technical Status Report, 21 March 2005 - 31 August 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, D.; Jester, T.; Bunea, G.

    2008-02-01

    SunPower Corp. describes its research to develop low-cost, next-generation SunPower modules with 30-year warranties and at least 50% higher energy production per area relative to today's typical multicrystalline Si modules.

  18. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, J.

    1994-03-15

    A membrane module assembly is described which is adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation. 2 figures.

  19. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, Jurgen (Palo Alto, CA)

    1994-01-01

    A membrane module assembly adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation.

  20. Module Safety Issues (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wohlgemuth, J.

    2012-02-01

    Description of how to make PV modules so that they are less likely to turn into safety hazards. Making modules inherently safer with minimum additional cost is the preferred approach for PV. Safety starts with module design to ensure redundancy within the electrical circuitry to minimize open circuits and proper mounting instructions to prevent installation related ground faults. Module manufacturers must control the raw materials and processes to ensure that that every module is built like those qualified through the safety tests. This is the reason behind the QA task force effort to develop a 'Guideline for PV Module Manufacturing QA'. Periodic accelerated stress testing of production products is critical to validate the safety of the product. Combining safer PV modules with better systems designs is the ultimate goal. This should be especially true for PV arrays on buildings. Use of lower voltage dc circuits - AC modules, DC-DC converters. Use of arc detectors and interrupters to detect arcs and open the circuits to extinguish the arcs.

  1. Module Handbook Fernstudium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berns, Karsten

    Module Handbook Fernstudium postgradual Nanotechnology (Master of Science) Infineon Technology, Munich Distance studies postgraduate #12;Module name Fundamentals of Quantum Mechanics Lecturer apl. Prof is to present the fundamental concepts of quantum physics in a way that a clear understanding of the theoretical

  2. Request for Information on Photovoltaic Module Recycling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative requests feedback from industry, academia, research laboratories, government agencies, and other stakeholders on issues related to photovoltaic (PV) module recycling technology. SunShot intends to understand the current state of recycling technology and the areas of research that could lead to impactful recycling technologies to support the developing PV industry. The intent of this request for information is to generate discussion related to planning for the end of life of photovoltaic modules and to create a list of high impact research topics in photovoltaics recycling.

  3. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  4. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  8. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  10. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  11. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  12. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  13. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  14. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  15. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  16. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  17. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  18. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  19. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2014-09-02

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame. A plurality of individual male alignment features and a plurality of individual female alignment features are included on each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by multiple individual male alignment features on a first module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules fitting into and being surrounded by corresponding individual female alignment features on a second module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  20. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using