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Sample records for module forecasts future

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  3. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  4. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and ...

  5. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  10. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  13. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  15. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  16. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  17. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  18. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  19. Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Future Print Information about the future expansion of research fields for synchrotrons and the growing number of light sources, including free electron lasers (FELs) will be posted here shortly.

  20. Modules

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    it's recommended to use the full version number, i.e. instead of doing "module load python" do "module load python2.7.6". This will preserve a record of the software version...

  1. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, ...

  2. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  3. Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Qing; Hagos, Samson M.; Qian, Yun

    2015-09-12

    This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

  4. Microsoft PowerPoint - FinalModule6.ppt

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6: Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Prepared by: Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measures and Forecasting 2 Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Module 6: Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Welcome to Module 6. The objective of this module is to introduce you to the Metrics and Performance Measurement tools used, along with Forecasting, in Earned Value Management. The Topics that will be addressed in this Module include: * Define Cost and Schedule Variances * Define

  5. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Forecasting. | Department of Energy 0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. PDF icon Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011 Update

  6. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  7. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  9. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  10. Renewable Fuels Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

  11. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  12. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  13. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  14. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  15. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  16. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  17. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  18. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  19. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  20. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  3. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  4. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  5. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  6. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  7. Commercial Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  8. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  9. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  10. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  11. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  12. Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sector program Execution Plans (1-3 yrs) HR Strategic Plan (1-3 yrs) Current hiring Lists (1-2 yrs) Succession Plans (1-x yrs) UpdateValidate Strategic Staff...

  13. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  14. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  15. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  16. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  17. VERDE Analytic Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2008-01-15

    The Verde Analytic Modules permit the user to ingest openly available data feeds about phenomenology (storm tracks, wind, precipitation, earthquake, wildfires, and similar natural and manmade power grid disruptions and forecast power outages, restoration times, customers outaged, and key facilities that will lose power. Damage areas are predicted using historic damage criteria of the affected area. The modules use a cellular automata approach to estimating the distribution circuits assigned to geo-located substations. Population estimates servedmore » within the service areas are located within 1 km grid cells and converted to customer counts by conversion through demographic estimation of households and commercial firms within the population cells. Restoration times are estimated by agent-based simulation of restoration crews working according to utility published prioritization calibrated by historic performance.« less

  18. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  19. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  1. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  2. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to plan for future outbreaks. The LANL team was able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China...

  3. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  4. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  6. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  7. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  8. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  9. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  11. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  12. Module Configuration

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Oweis, Salah (Ellicott City, MD); D'Ussel, Louis (Bordeaux, FR); Chagnon, Guy (Cockeysville, MD); Zuhowski, Michael (Annapolis, MD); Sack, Tim (Cockeysville, MD); Laucournet, Gaullume (Paris, FR); Jackson, Edward J. (Taneytown, MD)

    2002-06-04

    A stand alone battery module including: (a) a mechanical configuration; (b) a thermal management configuration; (c) an electrical connection configuration; and (d) an electronics configuration. Such a module is fully interchangeable in a battery pack assembly, mechanically, from the thermal management point of view, and electrically. With the same hardware, the module can accommodate different cell sizes and, therefore, can easily have different capacities. The module structure is designed to accommodate the electronics monitoring, protection, and printed wiring assembly boards (PWAs), as well as to allow airflow through the module. A plurality of modules may easily be connected together to form a battery pack. The parts of the module are designed to facilitate their manufacture and assembly.

  13. Energy for the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy for the Future

  14. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  15. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  18. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  1. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  5. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  7. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  8. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  9. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  10. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-08

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  14. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  15. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  16. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  19. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  20. Thermionic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    King, Donald B. (Albuquerque, NM); Sadwick, Laurence P. (Salt Lake City, UT); Wernsman, Bernard R. (Clairton, PA)

    2002-06-18

    Modules of assembled microminiature thermionic converters (MTCs) having high energy-conversion efficiencies and variable operating temperatures manufactured using MEMS manufacturing techniques including chemical vapor deposition. The MTCs incorporate cathode to anode spacing of about 1 micron or less and use cathode and anode materials having work functions ranging from about 1 eV to about 3 eV. The MTCs also exhibit maximum efficiencies of just under 30%, and thousands of the devices and modules can be fabricated at modest costs.

  1. Betting on the Future: The authors compare natural gas forecaststo futures buys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-20

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market. The goal is better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. Below is a discussion of our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this article we update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years. Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years

  2. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  5. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  6. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  7. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  8. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  11. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  12. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  13. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  15. Thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kortier, William E. (Columbus, OH); Mueller, John J. (Columbus, OH); Eggers, Philip E. (Columbus, OH)

    1980-07-08

    A thermoelectric module containing lead telluride as the thermoelectric mrial is encapsulated as tightly as possible in a stainless steel canister to provide minimum void volume in the canister. The lead telluride thermoelectric elements are pressure-contacted to a tungsten hot strap and metallurgically bonded at the cold junction to iron shoes with a barrier layer of tin telluride between the iron shoe and the p-type lead telluride element.

  16. The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use Reviews future market trends and forecasts, and future engine challenges and research focus PDF icon deer11_blaxill.pdf More Documents & Publications Next-generation Ultra-Lean Burn Powertrain Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Next-generation Ultra-Lean Burn Powertrain Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: Next-Generation Ultra Lean Burn Powertrain

  17. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  18. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Lenox, Carl J. S.; Culligan, Matthew; Danning, Matt

    2013-08-27

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame, The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  19. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Lenox, Carl J. S. (Oakland, CA); Culligan, Matthew (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2012-07-17

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame. The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  20. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  1. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  2. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  5. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  6. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  7. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  8. Supported PV module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mascolo, Gianluigi; Taggart, David F.; Botkin, Jonathan D.; Edgett, Christopher S.

    2013-10-15

    A supported PV assembly may include a PV module comprising a PV panel and PV module supports including module supports having a support surface supporting the module, a module registration member engaging the PV module to properly position the PV module on the module support, and a mounting element. In some embodiments the PV module registration members engage only the external surfaces of the PV modules at the corners. In some embodiments the assembly includes a wind deflector with ballast secured to a least one of the PV module supports and the wind deflector. An array of the assemblies can be secured to one another at their corners to prevent horizontal separation of the adjacent corners while permitting the PV modules to flex relative to one another so to permit the array of PV modules to follow a contour of the support surface.

  9. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  10. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  11. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Results from Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phil Patterson, P.; Singh, M.; Plotkin, S.; Moore, J.

    2007-03-09

    Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance and uncertainty of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of what if questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  12. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  14. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  15. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  16. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  17. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  18. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  19. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  20. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  1. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  2. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  4. NERSC Python Modules

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC Python Modules NERSC Python Modules Python Interpreter Modules To use the NERSC-built installation, type: module load python This loads the default version of the following useful core modules: python_base: Python 2.7.x module. numpy: Defines the numerical array and matrix type and basic operations on them. scipy: Uses numpy to do advanced math, signal processing, optimization, statistics and much more. matplotlib: Plotting/visualization library. ipython: Interactive python shell offering

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  6. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  7. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  8. The Future of the Earth's Climate: Frontiers in Forecasting (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Collins, Bill

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2007: Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins discusses how observations show that the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented in recent history, and that human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry are probably the main culprits. He suggests a need for better observations and understanding of the carbon and hydrological cycles.

  9. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  10. Ballasted photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan (El Cerrito, CA); Graves, Simon (Berkeley, CA); Danning, Matt (Oakland, CA)

    2011-11-29

    A photovoltaic (PV) module assembly including a PV module and a ballast tray. The PV module includes a PV device and a frame. A PV laminate is assembled to the frame, and the frame includes an arm. The ballast tray is adapted for containing ballast and is removably associated with the PV module in a ballasting state where the tray is vertically under the PV laminate and vertically over the arm to impede overt displacement of the PV module. The PV module assembly can be installed to a flat commercial rooftop, with the PV module and the ballast tray both resting upon the rooftop. In some embodiments, the ballasting state includes corresponding surfaces of the arm and the tray being spaced from one another under normal (low or no wind) conditions, such that the frame is not continuously subjected to a weight of the tray.

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  13. Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Documents & Publications Novel Nanostructured Interface Solution for Automotive Thermoelectric Modules Application Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

  14. Modules Software Environment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Environment » Modules Environment Modules Software Environment NERSC uses the module utility to manage nearly all software. There are two huge advantages of the module approach: NERSC can provide many different versions and/or installations of a single software package on a given machine, including a default version as well as several older and newer versions; and Users can easily switch to different versions or installations without having to explicitly specify different paths. With modules,

  15. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  16. The house of the future

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-09-01

    Learn what it will take to create tomorrow's net-zero energy home as scientists reveal the secrets of cool roofs, smart windows, and computer-driven energy control systems. The net-zero energy home: Scientists are working to make tomorrow's homes more than just energy efficient -- they want them to be zero energy. Iain Walker, a scientist in the Lab's Energy Performance of Buildings Group, will discuss what it takes to develop net-zero energy houses that generate as much energy as they use through highly aggressive energy efficiency and on-site renewable energy generation. Talking back to the grid: Imagine programming your house to use less energy if the electricity grid is full or price are high. Mary Ann Piette, deputy director of Berkeley Lab's building technology department and director of the Lab's Demand Response Research Center, will discuss how new technologies are enabling buildings to listen to the grid and automatically change their thermostat settings or lighting loads, among other demands, in response to fluctuating electricity prices. The networked (and energy efficient) house: In the future, your home's lights, climate control devices, computers, windows, and appliances could be controlled via a sophisticated digital network. If it's plugged in, it'll be connected. Bruce Nordman, an energy scientist in Berkeley Lab's Energy End-Use Forecasting group, will discuss how he and other scientists are working to ensure these networks help homeowners save energy.

  17. FutureGen.ppt

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Erik Turner Summer 2004 Technical Career Intern Program The Pennsylvania State University FutureGen And the importance of project management Outline * FutureGen technologies * Project Management history * Project Management today: Microsoft Project TM FutureGen * Growing need for clean affordable energy * Vast domestic coal reserves * Need to environmentally produce H 2 § Present chemical processes § Future of a Hydrogen Economy FutureGen - Layout FutureGen - IGCC * Integrated Gasification

  18. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  19. Living a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Living a Sustainable Future Living a Sustainable Future August 1, 2013 Biomass to fuel project The Laboratory's biomass team is working to solve the energy crisis through...

  20. OSCARS-Future-Tech

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    OSCARS and Future Tech Engineering Services The Network OSCARS How It Works Who's Using OSCARS? OSCARS and Future Tech OSCARS Standard and Open Grid Forum OSCARS Developers...

  1. Nuclear and Particle Futures

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear and Particle Futures Nuclear and Particle Futures The Lab's four Science Pillars harness our scientific capabilities for national security solutions. Contacts Pillar ...

  2. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  3. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  4. Generation of Coherent X-Ray Radiation through Modulation Compression

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Generation of Coherent X-Ray Radiation through Modulation Compression Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Generation of Coherent X-Ray Radiation through Modulation Compression In this paper, we propose a scheme to generate tunable coherent X-ray radiation for future light source applications. This scheme uses an energy chirped electron beam, a laser modulator, a laser chirper and two bunch compressors to generate a prebunched

  5. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  6. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  7. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  8. Common Geometry Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-01-01

    The Common Geometry Module (CGM) is a code library which provides geometry functionality used for mesh generation and other applications. This functionality includes that commonly found in solid modeling engines, like geometry creation, query and modification; CGM also includes capabilities not commonly found in solid modeling engines, like geometry decomposition tools and support for shared material interfaces. CGM is built upon the ACIS solid modeling engine, but also includes geometry capability developed beside and onmore » top of ACIS. CGM can be used as-is to provide geometry functionality for codes needing this capability. However, CGM can also be extended using derived classes in C++, allowing the geometric model to serve as the basis for other applications, for example mesh generation. CGM is supported on Sun Solaris, SGI, HP, IBM, DEC, Linux and Windows NT platforms. CGM also indudes support for loading ACIS models on parallel computers, using MPI-based communication. Future plans for CGM are to port it to different solid modeling engines, including Pro/Engineer or SolidWorks. CGM is being released into the public domain under an LGPL license; the ACIS-based engine is available to ACIS licensees on request.« less

  9. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  10. The Future of U.S. Natural Gas: Supply, Demand & Infrastructure

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Developments | Department of Energy The Future of U.S. Natural Gas: Supply, Demand & Infrastructure Developments The Future of U.S. Natural Gas: Supply, Demand & Infrastructure Developments This analysis forecasts natural gas supply, demand, and infrastructure developments through 2030 using an inventory and cell model. After introduction of methodology and market approach, the analysis describes expectations of production and supply and demand. This includes how production shifts in

  11. Detailed Course Module Description

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document lists the course modules for building science courses offered at Cornell's Collaborator Sustainable Buildingi Practice course.

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  14. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  15. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  16. Modulating lignin in plants

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Apuya, Nestor; Bobzin, Steven Craig; Okamuro, Jack; Zhang, Ke

    2013-01-29

    Materials and methods for modulating (e.g., increasing or decreasing) lignin content in plants are disclosed. For example, nucleic acids encoding lignin-modulating polypeptides are disclosed as well as methods for using such nucleic acids to generate transgenic plants having a modulated lignin content.

  17. Integrating Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  19. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  20. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  1. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  2. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  3. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-10-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  6. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2013-04-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-09-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  8. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-11-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  9. Planning for the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lesh, Pamela

    2009-06-15

    Four changes to integrated resource planning could significantly improve alignment between future utility spending and the forces and changes that are upending past preconceptions of how to predict future load. (author)

  10. Keck Futures Initiative

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Complex Systems Conference, November 12 - 15, 2008 Challa Kumar(second from left) was invited to attend 1st National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Complex Systems Conference

  11. Create a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Create a Sustainable Future Image of river edge with text overlay of 'How does LANL accomplish future stewardship of the natural and historical resources?' We sample to detect any...

  12. Active stewardship: sustainable future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Active stewardship: sustainable future Active stewardship: sustainable future Energy sustainability is a daunting task: How do we develop top-notch innovations with some of the world's most powerful technology without consuming excessive energy or creating waste? January 30, 2014 Active stewardship: sustainable future What if you could power your life using pond scum? Los Alamos researchers are creating many innovations to support a sustainable future. Energy sustainability is a daunting task:

  13. Living a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Living a Sustainable Future Living a Sustainable Future August 1, 2013 Biomass to fuel project The Laboratory's biomass team is working to solve the energy crisis through biological methods, including genetically engineering algae and cyanobacteria. Create a Sustainable Future: Living Living a Sustainable Future How our Not-so-ordinary Workers Keep LANL Green How many times can LANL reuse water? Google Earth Tour: Water Reuse

  14. Create a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Create a Sustainable Future Image of river edge with text overlay of 'How does LANL accomplish future stewardship of the natural and historical resources?' We sample to detect any release of materials to the environment. We manage environmental concerns by eco region. We evaluate our impact on the environment. We consult with experts and stakeholders. We fund projects that reduce environmental effects. Create a Sustainable Future Home Planning for Years to Come Living a Sustainable Future

  15. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  16. Cavity enhanced terahertz modulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Born, N.; Scheller, M.; Moloney, J. V.; Koch, M.

    2014-03-10

    We present a versatile concept for all optical terahertz (THz) amplitude modulators based on a Fabry-Prot semiconductor cavity design. Employing the high reflectivity of two parallel meta-surfaces allows for trapping selected THz photons within the cavity and thus only a weak optical modulation of the semiconductor absorbance is required to significantly damp the field within the cavity. The optical switching yields to modulation depths of more than 90% with insertion efficiencies of 80%.

  17. Detailed Course Module Description

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Course Module Description Module/Learning Objectives Level of Detail in Module by Audience Consumers Gen Ed/ Community College Trades 1. Energy Issues and Building Solutions High High High Learning Objectives: * Define terms of building science, ecological systems, economics of consumption * Relate building science perspective, ecology, social science * Explain historical energy and environmental issues related to buildings * Compare Site and source energy * Examine the health, safety and

  18. Historical impacts and future trends in industrial cogeneration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bluestein, J.; Lihn, M.

    1999-07-01

    Cogeneration, also known as combined heat and power (CHP), is the combined sequential generation of electricity and thermal or electric energy. The technology has been known essentially since the first commercial generation of electricity as a high efficiency technology option. After a period of decline, its use increased significantly during the 1980s and it is receiving renewed interest lately as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing emissions of air pollutants including carbon emissions. New and developing technology options have added to this potential. Forecasts of future growth and efforts to stimulate cogeneration need to take into account the history of the technology, the factors that have driven it in the past, and factors which could stimulate or retard future growth. This paper reviews and analyzes these factors and looks toward the future potential for cogeneration.

  19. Bracket for photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ciasulli, John; Jones, Jason

    2014-06-24

    Brackets for photovoltaic ("PV") modules are described. In one embodiment, a saddle bracket has a mounting surface to support one or more PV modules over a tube, a gusset coupled to the mounting surface, and a mounting feature coupled to the gusset to couple to the tube. The gusset can have a first leg and a second leg extending at an angle relative to the mounting surface. Saddle brackets can be coupled to a torque tube at predetermined locations. PV modules can be coupled to the saddle brackets. The mounting feature can be coupled to the first gusset and configured to stand the one or more PV modules off the tube.

  20. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  1. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  3. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  4. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  5. Silicon photonic heater-modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zortman, William A.; Trotter, Douglas Chandler; Watts, Michael R.

    2015-07-14

    Photonic modulators, methods of forming photonic modulators and methods of modulating an input optical signal are provided. A photonic modulator includes a disk resonator having a central axis extending along a thickness direction of the disk resonator. The disk resonator includes a modulator portion and a heater portion. The modulator portion extends in an arc around the central axis. A PN junction of the modulator portion is substantially normal to the central axis.

  6. Development of Fuel Shuffling Module for PHISICS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allan Mabe; Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Aaron Epiney; Michael Lineberry

    2013-06-01

    PHISICS (Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for the INL Code System) [4] code toolkit has been in development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This package is intended to provide a modern analysis tool for reactor physics investigation. It is designed with the mindset to maximize accuracy for a given availability of computational resources and to give state of the art tools to the modern nuclear engineer. This is obtained by implementing several different algorithms and meshing approaches among which the user will be able to choose, in order to optimize his computational resources and accuracy needs. The software is completely modular in order to simplify the independent development of modules by different teams and future maintenance. The package is coupled with the thermo-hydraulic code RELAP5-3D [3]. In the following the structure of the different PHISICS modules is briefly recalled, focusing on the new shuffling module (SHUFFLE), object of this paper.

  7. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  8. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, J.

    1994-03-15

    A membrane module assembly is described which is adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation. 2 figures.

  9. Module Safety Issues (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wohlgemuth, J.

    2012-02-01

    Description of how to make PV modules so that they are less likely to turn into safety hazards. Making modules inherently safer with minimum additional cost is the preferred approach for PV. Safety starts with module design to ensure redundancy within the electrical circuitry to minimize open circuits and proper mounting instructions to prevent installation related ground faults. Module manufacturers must control the raw materials and processes to ensure that that every module is built like those qualified through the safety tests. This is the reason behind the QA task force effort to develop a 'Guideline for PV Module Manufacturing QA'. Periodic accelerated stress testing of production products is critical to validate the safety of the product. Combining safer PV modules with better systems designs is the ultimate goal. This should be especially true for PV arrays on buildings. Use of lower voltage dc circuits - AC modules, DC-DC converters. Use of arc detectors and interrupters to detect arcs and open the circuits to extinguish the arcs.

  10. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, Jurgen (Palo Alto, CA)

    1994-01-01

    A membrane module assembly adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation.

  11. Logs Perl Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-04-04

    A perl module designed to read and parse the voluminous set of event or accounting log files produced by a Portable Batch System (PBS) server. This module can filter on date-time and/or record type. The data can be returned in a variety of formats.

  12. Materials for the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Materials for the Future Materials for the Future The Lab's four Science Pillars harness our scientific capabilities for national security solutions. Contacts Pillar Champion Mary Hockaday Email Pillar Contact Toni Taylor Email Pillar Contact David Teter Email Materials for the Future Science Overview At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we anticipate the advent of a new era in materials science, when we will transition from observing and exploiting the properties of materials to a science-based

  13. Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future City Competition The New Mexico Regional Competition is an unique opportunity for middle school children to combine skills in engineering, environmental science, and art to...

  14. My Amazing Future 2012

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2013-05-28

    Idaho National Laboratory's My Amazing Future program gives 8th grade women the opportunity to experience careers in science and engineering.

  15. Transportation Energy Futures Snapshot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This snapshot is a summary of the EERE reports that provide a detailed analysis of opportunities and challenges along the path to a more sustainable transportation energy future.

  16. Transportation Sector Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model.

  17. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2014-09-02

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame. A plurality of individual male alignment features and a plurality of individual female alignment features are included on each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by multiple individual male alignment features on a first module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules fitting into and being surrounded by corresponding individual female alignment features on a second module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  18. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  19. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M.

    2012-10-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It is being presented at the Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group Fall Technical Workshop on October 24, 2012.

  20. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a Power Systems Engineering Research Center webinar on September 4, 2012.

  1. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M.; Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in an Union of Concerned Scientists webinar on June 12, 2012.

  2. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. This presentation was presented in a Wind Powering America webinar on August 15, 2012 and is now available through the Wind Powering America website.

  3. The Hanford Story: Future

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Future Chapter of the Hanford Story illustrates the potential and possibilities offered by a post-cleanup Hanford. From land use plans and preservation at Hanford to economic development and tourism opportunities, the Future chapter touches on a variety of local economic, cultural and environmental perspectives.

  4. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a webinar given by the California Energy Commission.

  5. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  6. Sonication standard laboratory module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beugelsdijk, Tony (Los Alamos, NM); Hollen, Robert M. (Los Alamos, NM); Erkkila, Tracy H. (Los Alamos, NM); Bronisz, Lawrence E. (Los Alamos, NM); Roybal, Jeffrey E. (Santa Fe, NM); Clark, Michael Leon (Menan, ID)

    1999-01-01

    A standard laboratory module for automatically producing a solution of cominants from a soil sample. A sonication tip agitates a solution containing the soil sample in a beaker while a stepper motor rotates the sample. An aspirator tube, connected to a vacuum, draws the upper layer of solution from the beaker through a filter and into another beaker. This beaker can thereafter be removed for analysis of the solution. The standard laboratory module encloses an embedded controller providing process control, status feedback information and maintenance procedures for the equipment and operations within the standard laboratory module.

  7. Water heater control module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hammerstrom, Donald J

    2013-11-26

    An advanced electric water heater control system that interfaces with a high temperature cut-off thermostat and an upper regulating thermostat. The system includes a control module that is electrically connected to the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module includes a switch to open or close the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module further includes circuitry configured to control said switch in response to a signal selected from the group of an autonomous signal, a communicated signal, and combinations thereof.

  8. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  9. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  10. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  11. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  12. Introduction to the Buildings Sector Module of SEDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeForest, Nicholas; Bonnet, Florence; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris

    2010-12-31

    SEDS is a stochastic engineering-economics model that forecasts economy-wide energy consumption in the U.S. to 2050. It is the product of multi-laboratory collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Lumina Decision Systems. Among national energy models, SEDS is unique, as it is the only model written to explicitly incorporate uncertainty in its inputs and outputs. The primary purpose of SEDS is to estimate the impact of various US Department of Energy (DOE)R&D and policy programs on the performance and subsequent adoption rates of technologies relating to every energy consuming sector of the economy (shown below). It has previously been used to assist DOE in complying with the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA). The focus of LBNL research has been exclusively on develop the buildings model (SBEAM), which is capable of running as a stand-alone forecasting model, or as a part of SEDS as a whole. The full version of SEDS, containing all sectors and interaction is also called the 'integrated' version and is managed by NREL. Forecasts from SEDS are often compared to those coming from National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The intention of this document is to present new users and developers with a general description of the purpose, functionality and structure of the buildings module within the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS). The Buildings module, which is capable of running as a standalone model, is also called the Stochastic Buildings Energy and Adoption Model (SBEAM). This document will focus exclusively on SBEAM and its interaction with other major sector modules present within SEDS. The methodologies and major assumptions employed in SBEAM will also be discussed. The organization of this report will parallel the organization of the model itself, being divided into major submodules. As the description progresses, the nature of modules will change from broad, easily understood concepts to lower-level data manipulation. Because SBEAM contains dozens of submodules and hundreds of variables, it would not be relevant or useful to describe each and every one. Rather, the investigation will focus more generally on the operations performed throughout the model. This manual is by no means a complete description of SBEAM; however it should provide the foundation for an introductory understanding of the model. The manual assumes a basic level of understating of Analytica{reg_sign}, the platform on which SEDS and SBEAM have been developed.

  13. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  14. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  15. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  16. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  17. GREET Pretreatment Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adom, Felix K.; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Han, Jeongwoo

    2014-09-01

    A wide range of biofuels and biochemicals can be produced from biomass via different pretreatment technologies that yield sugars. This report documents the material and energy flows that occur when fermentable sugars from four lignocellulosic feedstocks (corn stover, miscanthus, switchgrass, and poplar) are produced via dilute acid pretreatment and ammonia fiber expansion. These flows are documented for inclusion in the pretreatment module of the Greenhouses Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. Process simulations of each pretreatment technology were developed in Aspen Plus. Material and energy consumption data from Aspen Plus were then compiled in the GREET pretreatment module. The module estimates the cradle-to-gate fossil energy consumption (FEC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with producing fermentable sugars. This report documents the data and methodology used to develop this module and the cradle-to-gate FEC and GHG emissions that result from producing fermentable sugars.

  18. NEMS International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA NEMS International Energy Module Model Documentation Report vii Mr. G. Daniel Butler U.S. Department of Energy EI-812 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Tel:...

  19. International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA NEMS International Energy Module Model Documentation Report vii Mr. G. Daniel Butler U.S. Department of Energy EI-812 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Tel:...

  20. Digital optical conversion module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kotter, D.K.; Rankin, R.A.

    1988-07-19

    A digital optical conversion module used to convert an analog signal to a computer compatible digital signal including a voltage-to-frequency converter, frequency offset response circuitry, and an electrical-to-optical converter. Also used in conjunction with the digital optical conversion module is an optical link and an interface at the computer for converting the optical signal back to an electrical signal. Suitable for use in hostile environments having high levels of electromagnetic interference, the conversion module retains high resolution of the analog signal while eliminating the potential for errors due to noise and interference. The module can be used to link analog output scientific equipment such as an electrometer used with a mass spectrometer to a computer. 2 figs.

  1. International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    self-contained units which are linked by an integrating mechanism. The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) computes world oil prices, provides a set of crude oil and refined...

  2. Digital optical conversion module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kotter, Dale K. (North Shelley, ID); Rankin, Richard A. (Ammon, ID)

    1991-02-26

    A digital optical conversion module used to convert an analog signal to a computer compatible digital signal including a voltage-to-frequency converter, frequency offset response circuitry, and an electrical-to-optical converter. Also used in conjunction with the digital optical conversion module is an optical link and an interface at the computer for converting the optical signal back to an electrical signal. Suitable for use in hostile environments having high levels of electromagnetic interference, the conversion module retains high resolution of the analog signal while eliminating the potential for errors due to noise and interference. The module can be used to link analog output scientific equipment such as an electrometer used with a mass spectrometer to a computer.

  3. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeMeo, E.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at Wind Powering America States Summit. The Summit, which follows the American Wind Energy Association's (AWEA's) annual WINDPOWER Conference and Exhibition, provides state Wind Working Groups, state energy officials, U.S. Energy Department and national laboratory representatives, and professional and institutional partners an opportunity to review successes, opportunities, and challenges for wind energy and plan future collaboration.

  4. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mrig, L.

    1990-01-01

    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  5. The motor gasoline industry: Past, present, and future. [Contains glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    Motor gasoline constitutes the largest single component of US demand for petroleum products and is the Nation's most widely used transportation fuel. Because of its importance as a transportation fuel, motor gasoline has been the focus of several regulatory and tax policy initiatives in recent years. Much of the US refining capacity is specifically geared toward maximizing motor gasoline production, and future investments by the petroleum industry in refining infrastructure are likely to be made largely to produce larger volumes of clean motor gasoline. This report addresses major events and developments that have had an impact on motor gasoline supply, distribution, prices, and demand. The report provides historical perspective as well as analyses of important events from the 1970's and 1980's. Long-term forecasts are provided for the period from 1990 to 2010 in an effort to present and analyze possible future motor gasoline trends. Other forecasts examine the near-term impact of the invasion of Kuwait. 18 figs., 10 tabs.

  6. Transportation Energy Futures Study

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Transportation accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum consumption and 33% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) study examines underexplored oil-savings and...

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented to the 2012 Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners, during their June, 2012, meeting. The Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners is a regional association within the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC).

  8. Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future City Competition The New Mexico Regional Competition is an unique opportunity for middle school children to combine skills in engineering, environmental science, and art to create a vision for the future. Exercising your imagination and sharing your ideas are not only fun but essential for ensuring sustainable growth for our communities. Students work as a team with an educator and engineer mentor to plan cities using SimCity(tm) software: research and write solutions to an engineering

  9. Future of Transportation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transportation In the coming decades, transportation in the U.S. is expected to change radically in response to environmental constraints, fluctuating oil availability and economic factors. Future Decision-Makers The transportation systems that emerge in the 21 st century will be defined largely by the choices, skills and imaginations of today's youth. Future Workforce As scientists and engineers, they will develop new vehicle and fuel technologies. As citizens, they will make decisions

  10. ARM - Future Trends

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Trends Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Future Trends Since fossil fuel burning is tied in with industrialization, what is going to happen as third world countries become more industrialized? It seems inevitable this will increase carbon dioxide emissions to our

  11. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  12. Renewable Fuels Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    and are likely to occur in future years. Governments and businesses have adopted strategies to lessen the amount of waste generated without reducing economic output. The...

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  14. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  17. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  19. Power module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Campbell, Jeremy B. (Torrance, CA); Newson, Steve (Redondo Beach, CA)

    2011-11-15

    A power module assembly of the type suitable for deployment in a vehicular power inverter, wherein the power inverter has a grounded chassis, is provided. The power module assembly comprises a conductive base layer electrically coupled to the chassis, an insulating layer disposed on the conductive base layer, a first conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, a second conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, wherein the first and second conductive nodes are electrically isolated from each other. The power module assembly also comprises a first capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the first conductive node, and further comprises a second capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the second conductive node.

  20. Flexible programmable logic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robertson, Perry J.; Hutchinson, Robert L.; Pierson, Lyndon G.

    2001-01-01

    The circuit module of this invention is a VME board containing a plurality of programmable logic devices (PLDs), a controlled impedance clock tree, and interconnecting buses. The PLDs are arranged to permit systolic processing of a problem by offering wide data buses and a plurality of processing nodes. The board contains a clock reference and clock distribution tree that can drive each of the PLDs with two critically timed clock references. External clock references can be used to drive additional circuit modules all operating from the same synchronous clock reference.

  1. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at the 2012 RE AMP Annual Meeting. RE-AMP is an active network of 144 nonprofits and foundations across eight Midwestern states working on climate change and energy policy with the goal of reducing global warming pollution economy-wide 80% by 2050.

  2. Future Physics | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Physics March 5, 2009 In late January, we held a meeting of our Physics Advisory Committee, PAC34 to be precise. We had two primary goals for the PAC, one related to the currently operating program, the other related to future physics after completion of the 12 GeV Upgrade Project. Of course, with its receipt of approval to enter the construction phase, we are treating the 12 GeV Project schedule as something to live by. The shutdowns and running of the machine derive from a combination

  3. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  4. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2012-09-04

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame having at least a top member and a bottom member. A plurality of alignment features are included on the top member of each frame, and a plurality of alignment features are included on the bottom member of each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by the alignment features on the top member of a lower module fitting together with the alignment features on the bottom member of an upper module. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  5. Role of Polycrystalline Thin-Film PV Technologies in Competitive PV Module Markets: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    von Roedern, B.; Ullal, H. S.

    2008-05-01

    This paper discusses the developments in thin-film PV technologies and provides an outlook on future commercial module efficiencies achievable based on today's knowledge about champion cell performance.

  6. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  7. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  8. Energy futures-2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    This book covers the proceedings of the Symposium on Energy Futures II. Topics covered include: The National Energy Strategy; The Gas and petroleum industry; energy use in the paper industry; solar energy technology; hydroelectric power; biomass/waste utilization; engine emissions testing laboratories; integrated coal gassification-combined-cycle power plants.

  9. Formed photovoltaic module busbars

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rose, Douglas; Daroczi, Shan; Phu, Thomas

    2015-11-10

    A cell connection piece for a photovoltaic module is disclosed herein. The cell connection piece includes an interconnect bus, a plurality of bus tabs unitarily formed with the interconnect bus, and a terminal bus coupled with the interconnect bus. The plurality of bus tabs extend from the interconnect bus. The terminal bus includes a non-linear portion.

  10. Method of monolithic module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gee, James M. (Albuquerque, NM); Garrett, Stephen E. (Albuquerque, NM); Morgan, William P. (Albuquerque, NM); Worobey, Walter (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-01-01

    Methods for "monolithic module assembly" which translate many of the advantages of monolithic module construction of thin-film PV modules to wafered c-Si PV modules. Methods employ using back-contact solar cells positioned atop electrically conductive circuit elements affixed to a planar support so that a circuit capable of generating electric power is created. The modules are encapsulated using encapsulant materials such as EVA which are commonly used in photovoltaic module manufacture. The methods of the invention allow multiple cells to be electrically connected in a single encapsulation step rather than by sequential soldering which characterizes the currently used commercial practices.

  11. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  12. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop was held in Golden, Colorado, on Feb. 26–27, 2013. The objective was to share information to improve PV module reliability because such...

  13. RHIC progress and future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Montag,C.

    2009-05-04

    The talk reviews RHIC performance, including unprecedented manipulations of polarized beams and recent low energy operations. Achievements and limiting factors of RHIC operation are discussed, such as intrabeam scattering, electron cloud, beam-beam effects, magnet vibrations, and the efficiency of novel countermeasures such as bunched beam stochastic cooling, beam scrubbing and chamber coatings. Future upgrade plans and the pertinent R&D program will also be presented.

  14. Growing the Future Bioeconomy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Future Bioeconomy JOEL VELASCO July 2014 2 Copyright © 2012 Amyris, Inc. All rights reserved. This presentation and oral statements accompanying this presentation contain forward-looking statements, and any statements other than statements of historical facts could be deemed to be forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, among other things, sizes of markets that may be addressed by Amyris's current and potential products, Amyris's expected product pipeline,

  15. Energy for our Future

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    for our Future Standards, Goals and Energy Planning Dave PM TCC Rural Energy Coordinator Dave.pm@tananachiefs.org "Stronger Together for the Next 100 Years" Tanana Chiefs Conference Tanana Chiefs Conference is a Tribal Consortium with 42 Members, representing 39 villages and 37 federally recognized tribes. MISSION: "Tanana Chiefs Conference provides a unified voice in advancing sovereign tribal governments through the promotion of physical and mental wellness, education,

  16. Future Mobility in Maryland

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    FUTURE MOBILITY IN NEVADA: Meeting the State's Need for Safe and Efficient Mobility October 2009 Prepared by: TRIP 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, D.C. 20036 202-466-6706 (voice) 202-785-4722 (fax) www.tripnet.org Founded in 1971, TRIP ® of Washington, DC, is a nonprofit organization that researches, evaluates and distributes economic and technical data on highway transportation issues. TRIP is sponsored by insurance companies, equipment manufacturers, distributors and suppliers;

  17. Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules with Scalable Thermo- and Electro-Mechanical Interfaces Novel...

  18. Detailed Course Module Description | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Detailed Course Module Description Detailed Course Module Description This document lists the course modules for building science courses offered at Cornell's Collaborator...

  19. SHARP Physics Modules Updated | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Physics Modules Updated SHARP Physics Modules Updated January 29, 2013 - 12:37pm Addthis PROTEUS Development The SHARP neutronics module, PROTEUS, includes neutron and gamma ...

  20. Module Solar AG | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Module Solar AG Jump to: navigation, search Name: Module Solar AG Place: Baar, Switzerland Product: A Swiss PV module and materials supplier and developer Coordinates: 40.808083,...

  1. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  2. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  3. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  4. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Research Home > Groups > Future of Condition Monitoring for Wind Turbines Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 11 June, 2015 - 03:19 Base Oil...

  5. Module isolation devices

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carolan, Michael Francis; Cooke, John Albert; Buzinski, Michael David

    2010-04-27

    A gas flow isolation device includes a gas flow isolation valve movable from an opened condition to a closed condition. The module isolation valve in one embodiment includes a rupture disk in flow communication with a flow of gas when the module isolation valve is in an opened condition. The rupture disk ruptures when a predetermined pressure differential occurs across it causing the isolation valve to close. In one embodiment the valve is mechanically linked to the rupture disk to maintain the valve in an opened condition when the rupture disk is intact, and which permits the valve to move into a closed condition when the rupture disk ruptures. In another embodiment a crushable member maintains the valve in an open condition, and the flow of gas passed the valve upon rupturing of the rupture disk compresses the crushable member to close the isolation valve.

  6. Tandem resonator reflectance modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritz, I.J.; Wendt, J.R.

    1994-09-06

    A wide band optical modulator is grown on a substrate as tandem Fabry-Perot resonators including three mirrors spaced by two cavities. The absorption of one cavity is changed relative to the absorption of the other cavity by an applied electric field, to cause a change in total reflected light, as light reflecting from the outer mirrors is in phase and light reflecting from the inner mirror is out of phase with light from the outer mirrors. 8 figs.

  7. PV modules modelling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of the Environmental Sciences / Group of Energy / PVsyst Modeling Systems Losses in PVsyst André Mermoud Institute of the Environmental Sciences Group of energy - PVsyst andre.mermoud@unige.ch Institute of the Environmental Sciences / Group of Energy / PVsyst Summary Losses in a PV system simulation may be: - Determined by specific models (shadings) - Interpretations of models (PV module behaviour) - User's parameter specifications (soiling, wiring, etc). PVsyst provides a detailed analysis of

  8. Tandem resonator reflectance modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritz, Ian J. (Albuquerque, NM); Wendt, Joel R. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1994-01-01

    A wide band optical modulator is grown on a substrate as tandem Fabry-Perot resonators including three mirrors spaced by two cavities. The absorption of one cavity is changed relative to the absorption of the other cavity by an applied electric field, to cause a change in total reflected light, as light reflecting from the outer mirrors is in phase and light reflecting from the inner mirror is out of phase with light from the outer mirrors.

  9. Future water Cherenkov detectors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bergevin, Marc

    2015-05-15

    In these proceedings a review of the current proposed large-scale Warer Cherenkov experiments is given. An argument is made that future water Cherenkov detectors would benefit in the investment in neutron detection technology. A brief overview will be given of proposed water Cherenkov experiments such as HYPER-K and MEMPHYS and other R and D experiments to demonstrate neutron capture in water Cherenkov detectors. Finally, innovation developed in the context of the now defunct LBNE Water R and D option to improve Water Cherenkov technology will be described.

  10. Bioenergy: America's Energy Future

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

    2014-08-12

    Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

  11. Bioenergy: America's Energy Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

    2014-07-31

    Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

  12. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  13. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  14. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  15. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  16. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  17. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  18. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  19. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  20. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  1. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  2. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  3. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  4. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  5. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  7. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  9. TASMANIAN Sparse Grids Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-09-20

    Sparse Grids are the family of methods of choice for multidimensional integration and interpolation in low to moderate number of dimensions. The method is to select extend a one dimensional set of abscissas, weights and basis functions by taking a subset of all possible tensor products. The module provides the ability to create global and local approximations based on polynomials and wavelets. The software has three components, a library, a wrapper for the library thatmore » provides a command line interface via text files ad a MATLAB interface via the command line tool.« less

  10. Processing module operating methods, processing modules, and communications systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McCown, Steven Harvey; Derr, Kurt W.; Moore, Troy

    2014-09-09

    A processing module operating method includes using a processing module physically connected to a wireless communications device, requesting that the wireless communications device retrieve encrypted code from a web site and receiving the encrypted code from the wireless communications device. The wireless communications device is unable to decrypt the encrypted code. The method further includes using the processing module, decrypting the encrypted code, executing the decrypted code, and preventing the wireless communications device from accessing the decrypted code. Another processing module operating method includes using a processing module physically connected to a host device, executing an application within the processing module, allowing the application to exchange user interaction data communicated using a user interface of the host device with the host device, and allowing the application to use the host device as a communications device for exchanging information with a remote device distinct from the host device.

  11. Phase modulation in RF tag

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carrender, Curtis Lee; Gilbert, Ronald W.

    2007-02-20

    A radio frequency (RF) communication system employs phase-modulated backscatter signals for RF communication from an RF tag to an interrogator. The interrogator transmits a continuous wave interrogation signal to the RF tag, which based on an information code stored in a memory, phase-modulates the interrogation signal to produce a backscatter response signal that is transmitted back to the interrogator. A phase modulator structure in the RF tag may include a switch coupled between an antenna and a quarter-wavelength stub; and a driver coupled between the memory and a control terminal of the switch. The driver is structured to produce a modulating signal corresponding to the information code, the modulating signal alternately opening and closing the switch to respectively decrease and increase the transmission path taken by the interrogation signal and thereby modulate the phase of the response signal. Alternatively, the phase modulator may include a diode coupled between the antenna and driver. The modulating signal from the driver modulates the capacitance of the diode, which modulates the phase of the response signal reflected by the diode and antenna.

  12. NYMEX Futures Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    NYMEX Futures Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, All Others in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product/ Contract 03/08/16 03/09/16 03/10/16 03/11/16 03/14/16 03/15/16 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 36.50 38.29 37.84 38.50 37.18 36.34 1983-2016 Contract 2 38.42 40.07 39.40 40.09 38.84 38.08 1985-2016 Contract 3 39.58

  13. Hydrogen & Our Energy Future

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen Program www.hydrogen.energy.gov Hydrogen & Our Energy Future  | HydrOgEn & Our EnErgy FuturE U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Program www.hydrogen.energy.gov u.S. department of Energy |  www.hydrogen.energy.gov Hydrogen & Our Energy Future Contents Introduction ................................................... p.1 Hydrogen - An Overview ................................... p.3 Production ..................................................... p.5 Delivery

  14. Future Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Use Future Use Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their future use vision. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their future use vision. Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their

  15. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Wigley, Tom M.

    2005-12-01

    The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.

  16. The future of methane

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howell, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    Natural gas, mainly methane, produces lower CO{sub 2}, CO, NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate emissions than either oil or coal; thus further substitutions of methane for these fuels could help mitigate air pollution. Methane is, however, a potent greenhouse gas and the domestication of ruminants, cultivation of rice, mining of coal, drilling for oil, and transportation of natural gas have all contributed to a doubling of the amount of atmospheric methane since 1800. Today nearly 300,000 wells yearly produce ca. 21 trillion cubic feet of methane. Known reserves suggest about a 10 year supply at the above rates of recovery; and the potential for undiscovered resources is obscured by uncertainty involving price, new technologies, and environmental restrictions steming from the need to drill an enormous number of wells, many in ecologically sensitive areas. Until all these aspects of methane are better understood, its future role in the world`s energy mix will remain uncertain. The atomic simplicity of methane, composed of one carbon and four hydrogen atoms, may mask the complexity and importance of this, the most basic of organic molecules. Within the Earth, methane is produced through thermochemical alteration of organic materials, and by biochemical reactions mediated by metabolic processes of archaebacteria; some methane may even be primordial, a residue of planetary accretion. Methane also occurs in smaller volumes in landfills, rice paddies, termite complexes, ruminants, and even many humans. As an energy source, its full energy potential is controversial. Methane is touted by some as a viable bridge to future energy systems, fueled by the sun and uranium and carried by electricity and hydrogen.

  17. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  18. New Battery Testing Facility Could Boost Future of Electric Vehicles

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Battery Testing Facility Could Boost Future of Electric Vehicles For more information contact: e:mail: Public Affairs Golden, Colo., April 21, 1998 — A new, state-of-the-art battery testing facility could give a boost to battery manufacturers and the growing electric and hybrid electric vehicle industry. The Battery Thermal Test Facility at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will help design better battery modules and packs for the vehicles of the

  19. Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The international area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  1. International Energy Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Summarizes the overall structure of the International Energy Model and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods.

  2. Photovoltaic concentrator module improvements study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Levy, S.L.; Kerschen, K.A. ); Hutchison, G. ); Nowlan, M.J. )

    1991-08-01

    This report presents results of a project to design and fabricate an improved photovoltaic concentrator module. Using previous work as a baseline, this study conducted analyses and testing to select major module components and design features. The lens parquet and concentrator solar cell were selected from the highest performing, available components. A single 185X point-focus module was fabricated by the project team and tested at Sandia. Major module characteristics include a 6 by 4 compression-molded acrylic lens parquet (0.737 m{sup 2} area), twenty-four 0.2 ohms-cm, FZ, p-Si solar cells (1.56 cm{sup 2} area) soldered to ceramic substrates and copper heat spreaders, and an aluminized steel housing with corrugated bottom. This project marked the first attempt to use prismatic covers on solar cells in a high-concentration, point-focus application. Cells with 15 percent metallization were obtained, but problems with the fabrication and placement of prismatic covers on these cells lead to the decision not to use covers in the prototype module. Cell assembly fabrication, module fabrication, and module optical design activities are presented here. Test results are also presented for bare cells, cell assemblies, and module. At operating conditions of 981 watts/m{sup 2} DNI and an estimated cell temperature of 65{degrees}C, the module demonstrated an efficiency of 13.9 percent prior to stressed environmental exposure. 12 refs., 56 figs., 7 tabs.

  3. module 4 | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    HR5 TRANSITION BRIEFING PDF icon module 4 More Documents & Publications Microsoft Word - Rev5functionalaccountabilityimplementationplan..doc High Risk Plan Department of Energy (DOE) Acquisition Guide

  4. Bottom-Up Cost Analysis of a High Concentration PV Module; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Horowitz, K.; Woodhouse, M.; Lee, H.; Smestad, G.

    2015-04-13

    We present a bottom-up model of III-V multi-junction cells, as well as a high concentration PV (HCPV) module. We calculate $0.65/Wp(DC) manufacturing costs for our model HCPV module design with today’s capabilities, and find that reducing cell costs and increasing module efficiency offer the promising pathways for future cost reductions. Cell costs could be significantly reduced via an increase in manufacturing scale, substrate reuse, and improved manufacturing yields. We also identify several other significant drivers of HCPV module costs, including the Fresnel lens primary optic, module housing, thermal management, and the receiver board. These costs could potentially be lowered by employing innovative module designs.

  5. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  6. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  7. Photovoltaic module mounting system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miros, Robert H. J. (Fairfax, CA); Mittan, Margaret Birmingham (Oakland, CA); Seery, Martin N. (San Rafael, CA); Holland, Rodney H. (Novato, CA)

    2012-04-17

    A solar array mounting system having unique installation, load distribution, and grounding features, and which is adaptable for mounting solar panels having no external frame. The solar array mounting system includes flexible, pedestal-style feet and structural links connected in a grid formation on the mounting surface. The photovoltaic modules are secured in place via the use of attachment clamps that grip the edge of the typically glass substrate. The panel mounting clamps are then held in place by tilt brackets and/or mid-link brackets that provide fixation for the clamps and align the solar panels at a tilt to the horizontal mounting surface. The tilt brackets are held in place atop the flexible feet and connected link members thus creating a complete mounting structure.

  8. Light modulating device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rauh, R.D.; Goldner, R.B.

    1989-12-26

    In a device for transmitting light, means for controlling the transmissivity of the device, including a ceramic, reversibly electrochromic, crystalline element having a highly reflective state when injected with electrons and charge compensating ions and a highly transmissive state when the electrons and ions are removed, the crystalline element being characterized as having a reflectivity of at least 50% in the reflective state and not greater than 10% in the transmissive state, and means for modulating the crystalline element between the reflective and transmissive states by injecting ions into the crystalline element in response to an applied electrical current of a first polarity and removing the ions in response to an applied electrical current of a second polarity are disclosed. 1 fig.

  9. Fortran 90 Source Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-01-13

    A major advance contained in the new Fortran 90 language standard is the ability to define new data types and the operators associated with them. Writing computer code to implement computations with real and complex three domensional vectors and dyadics is greatly simplified if the equations can be implemented directly, without the need to code the vector arithmetic explicitly. The Fortran 90 module VECTORS contains source code which defines new data types for real andmore » complex 3-dimensional vectors and dyadics, along with the common operations needed to work with these objects. Routines to allow convenient initalization and output of the new types are also included. in keeping with the philosophy of data abstraction, the details of the implementation of the data types are maintained private, and the functions and operators are made generic to simplify the combining of real, complex, single and double precision vectors and dyadics.« less

  10. Photovoltaic module mounting system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miros, Robert H. J.; Mittan, Margaret Birmingham; Seery, Martin N; Holland, Rodney H

    2012-09-18

    A solar array mounting system having unique installation, load distribution, and grounding features, and which is adaptable for mounting solar panels having no external frame. The solar array mounting system includes flexible, pedestal-style feet and structural links connected in a grid formation on the mounting surface. The photovoltaic modules are secured in place via the use of attachment clamps that grip the edge of the typically glass substrate. The panel mounting clamps are then held in place by tilt brackets and/or mid-link brackets that provide fixation for the clamps and align the solar panels at a tilt to the horizontal mounting surface. The tilt brackets are held in place atop the flexible feet and connected link members thus creating a complete mounting structure.

  11. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  12. Low-voltage differentially-signaled modulators

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zortman, William A.; Lentine, Anthony L.; Hsia, Alexander H.; Watts, Michael R.

    2015-09-08

    Photonic modulators and methods of modulating an input optical signal are provided. A photonic modulator includes at least one modulator section and differential drive circuitry. The at least one modulator section includes a P-type layer and an N-type layer forming a PN junction in the modulator section. The differential drive circuitry is electrically coupled to the P-type layer and the N-type layer of the at least one modulator section.

  13. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  14. Argonne's SpEC Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, Jason

    2014-05-05

    Jason Harper, an electrical engineer in Argonne National Laboratory's EV-Smart Grid Interoperability Center, discusses his SpEC Module invention that will enable fast charging of electric vehicles in under 15 minutes. The module has been licensed to BTCPower.

  15. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2014 (AEO2014). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  16. Argonne's SpEC Module

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Harper, Jason

    2014-06-05

    Jason Harper, an electrical engineer in Argonne National Laboratory's EV-Smart Grid Interoperability Center, discusses his SpEC Module invention that will enable fast charging of electric vehicles in under 15 minutes. The module has been licensed to BTCPower.

  17. Working with Modules within Perl and Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Working with Modules within Perl and Python Working with Modules within Perl and Python It can often be convenient to work with the modules system from within perl or python scripts. You can do this! Using Modules within Python The EnvironmentModules python package gives access to the module system from within python. The EnvironmentModules python package has a single function: module. Using this function you can provide the same arguments you would to "module" on the command line. The

  18. Model documentation: Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it related to the production of the 1994 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO94) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves two purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. Of these six, four are documented in the following chapters: municipal solid waste, wind, solar and biofuels. Geothermal and wood are not currently working components of NEMS. The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological and cost characteristics of renewable energy technologies, and to pass these characteristics to other NEMS modules for the determination of mid-term forecasted renewable energy demand.

  19. Force Modulator System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redmond Clark

    2009-04-30

    Many metal parts manufacturers use large metal presses to shape sheet metal into finished products like car body parts, jet wing and fuselage surfaces, etc. These metal presses take sheet metal and - with enormous force - reshape the metal into a fully formed part in a manner of seconds. Although highly efficient, the forces involved in forming metal parts also damage the press itself, limit the metals used in part production, slow press operations and, when not properly controlled, cause the manufacture of large volumes of defective metal parts. To date, the metal-forming industry has not been able to develop a metal-holding technology that allows full control of press forces during the part forming process. This is of particular importance in the automotive lightweighting efforts under way in the US automotive manufacturing marketplace. Metalforming Controls Technology Inc. (MC2) has developed a patented press control system called the Force Modulator that has the ability to control these press forces, allowing a breakthrough in stamping process control. The technology includes a series of hydraulic cylinders that provide controlled tonnage at all points in the forming process. At the same time, the unique cylinder design allows for the generation of very high levels of clamping forces (very high tonnages) in very small spaces; a requirement for forming medium and large panels out of HSS and AHSS. Successful production application of these systems testing at multiple stamping operations - including Ford and Chrysler - has validated the capabilities and economic benefits of the system. Although this technology has been adopted in a number of stamping operations, one of the primary barriers to faster adoption and application of this technology in HSS projects is system cost. The cost issue has surfaced because the systems currently in use are built for each individual die as a custom application, thus driving higher tooling costs. This project proposed to better marry the die-specific Force Modulator technology with stamping presses in the form of a press cushion. This system would be designed to operate the binder ring for multiple parts, thus cutting the per-die cost of the technology. This study reports the results of technology field application. This project produced the following conclusions: (1) The Force Modulator system is capable of operating at very high tempos in the stamping environment; (2) The company can generate substantial, controlled holding tonnage (binder ring pressure) necessary to hold high strength steel parts for proper formation during draw operations; (3) A single system can be designed to operate with a family of parts, thus significantly reducing the per-die cost of a FM system; (4) High strength steel parts made with these systems appear to show significant quality improvements; (5) The amounts of steel required to make these parts is typically less than the amounts required with traditional blank-holding technologies; and (6) This technology will aid in the use of higher strength steels in auto and truck production, thus reducing weight and improving fuel efficiency.

  20. New Mexico Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Mexico Future City Competition New Mexico Future City Competition WHEN: Jan 24, 2015 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM WHERE: National Museum of Nuclear Science and History 601 Eubank, Albuquerque CATEGORY: Environment INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Future City Competition is focused on tackling challenges of our infrastructure and natural resources. New Mexico's ecosystem and climate are unique. Growing the next generation of innovators requires not only creative minds, but also teamwork,

  1. Prompt-Month Energy Futures

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Prompt-Month Energy Futures Prices and trading activity shown are for prompt-month (see definition below) futures contracts for the energy commodities listed in the table below. Note that trading for prompt-month futures contracts ends on different dates at the end of the month for the various commodities; therefore, some commodity prices may reference delivery for the next month sooner than other commodity prices. Product Description Listed With Crude Oil ($/barrel) West Texas Intermediate

  2. The Future of Electron Microscopy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zheng, Haimei

    2015-05-06

    Berkeley Lab scientist Haimei Zheng discusses the future of electron microscopy and her breakthrough research into examining liquids using an electron microscope.

  3. Status and Future of TRANSCOM

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Program status g Upcoming Changes Glimpse at future options Versatility Signal relay S t d t Smart-mode system DOE Commitments 14 632010 8 Flexible...

  4. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  5. OCGen Module Mooring Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McEntee, Jarlath

    2015-02-06

    Ocean Renewable Power Company's OCGen Module Mooring Project provided an extensive research, design, development, testing and data collection effort and analysis conducted with respect to a positively buoyant, submerged MHK device secured to the seabed using a tensioned mooring system. Different analytic tools were evaluated for their utility in the design of submerged systems and their moorings. Deployment and testing of a prototype OCGen® system provided significant data related to mooring line loads and system attitude and station keeping. Mooring line loads were measured in situ and reported against flow speeds. The Project made a significant step in the development of designs, methodologies and practices related to floating and mooring of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices. Importantly for Ocean Renewable Power Company, the Project provided a sound basis for advancing a technically and commercially viable OCGen® Power System. The OCGen® Power System is unique in the MHK industry and, in itself, offers distinct advantages of MHK devices that are secured to the seabed using fixed structural frames. Foremost among these advantages are capital and operating cost reductions and increased power extraction by allowing the device to be placed at the most energetic level of the water column.

  6. GDF Future Energies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Future Energies Jump to: navigation, search Name: GDF Future Energies Place: France Product: Clean energy subsidiary of Gaz de France. References: GDF Future Energies1 This...

  7. In-Situ Measurement of Crystalline Silicon Modules Undergoing Potential-Induced Degradation in Damp Heat Stress Testing for Estimation of Low-Light Power Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hacke, P.; Terwilliger, K.; Kurtz, S.

    2013-08-01

    The extent of potential-induced degradation of crystalline silicon modules in an environmental chamber is estimated using in-situ dark I-V measurements and applying superposition analysis. The dark I-V curves are shown to correctly give the module power performance at 200, 600 and 1,000 W/m2 irradiance conditions, as verified with a solar simulator. The onset of degradation measured in low light in relation to that under one sun irradiance can be clearly seen in the module design examined; the time to 5% relative degradation measured in low light (200 W/m2) was 28% less than that of full sun (1,000 W/m2 irradiance). The power of modules undergoing potential-induced degradation can therefore be characterized in the chamber, facilitating statistical analyses and lifetime forecasting.

  8. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  9. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  10. Module 3 - Project Scheduling | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    3 - Project Scheduling Module 3 - Project Scheduling This module focuses on developing the project schedule. This module differentiates between planning and scheduling and outlines basic scheduling concepts, the logic relationships and critical path, and different schedule formats

  11. Module 8 - Reporting | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    8 - Reporting Module 8 - Reporting This module focuses on the reporting options and requirement of earned value. This module illustrates and defines the different cost performance reports (CPR) available for reporting earned value information

  12. Working with Modules within Perl and Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Working with Modules within Perl and Python Working with Modules within Perl and Python It can often be convenient to work with the modules system from within perl or python...

  13. Photovoltaic module with adhesion promoter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-10-08

    Photovoltaic modules with adhesion promoters and methods for fabricating photovoltaic modules with adhesion promoters are described. A photovoltaic module includes a solar cell including a first surface and a second surface, the second surface including a plurality of interspaced back-side contacts. A first glass layer is coupled to the first surface by a first encapsulating layer. A second glass layer is coupled to the second surface by a second encapsulating layer. At least a portion of the second encapsulating layer is bonded directly to the plurality of interspaced back-side contacts by an adhesion promoter.

  14. Alternative Energy Sources - An Interdisciplinary Module for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy Education Alternative Energy Sources - An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy Education Below is information about the student activity...

  15. Alternative Energy Sources -- An Interdisciplinary Module for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy Education Alternative Energy Sources -- An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy Education Find activities focused on renewable energy ...

  16. Village Hydro Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hydro Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Village Hydro Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus...

  17. Biomass Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biomass Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area:...

  18. Ubbink Solar Modules BV | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Modules BV Place: Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany Zip: 50933 Product: German manufacturer of PV modules, main customer was Ecostream that has agreed to purchase...

  19. Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation) Pern, J. 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 36 MATERIALS SCIENCE; ENCAPSULATION; PROCESSING; RELIABILITY; TESTING PV; MODULE...

  20. Photovoltaic Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Photovoltaic Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus...

  1. Lateral electrodeposition of compositionally modulated metal layers

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearne, Sean J

    2014-03-25

    A method for making a laterally modulated metallic structure that is compositionally modulated in the lateral direction with respect to a substrate.

  2. Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pern, J.

    2008-12-01

    Study of PV module encapsulation materials, processing, and testing shows that overall module reliability is determined by all component materials and processing factors.

  3. PROJECT PROFILE: Support of International Photovoltaic Module...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PROJECT PROFILE: Support of International Photovoltaic Module Quality Assurance Task Force (PVQAT) PROJECT PROFILE: Support of International Photovoltaic Module Quality Assurance ...

  4. Wind Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Wind Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area:...

  5. Future Communications Needs | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Future Communications Needs Future Communications Needs Chart of Oncor Electric Delivery's Future Communications Needs PDF icon Future Communications Needs More Documents & Publications Current Communications Needs AT&T, Inc.'s Reply Comments Comments of Utilities Telecom Council

  6. Photovoltaic Module Qualification Plus Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, S.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kempe, M.; Bosco, N.; Hacke, P.; Jordan, D.; Miller, D. C.; Silverman, T. J.; Phillips, N.; Earnest, T.; Romero, R.

    2013-12-01

    This report summarizes a set of test methods that are in the midst of being incorporated into IEC 61215 for certification of a module design or other tests that go beyond certification to establish bankability.

  7. Industrial Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  8. Residential Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

  9. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  10. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  11. Compact magnetic energy storage module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prueitt, M.L.

    1994-12-20

    A superconducting compact magnetic energy storage module in which a plurality of superconducting toroids, each having a toroidally wound superconducting winding inside a poloidally wound superconducting winding, are stacked so that the flow of electricity in each toroidally wound superconducting winding is in a direction opposite from the direction of electrical flow in other contiguous superconducting toroids. This allows for minimal magnetic pollution outside of the module. 4 figures.

  12. Solar cell module lamination process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carey, Paul G. (Mountain View, CA); Thompson, Jesse B. (Brentwood, CA); Aceves, Randy C. (Tracy, CA)

    2002-01-01

    A solar cell module lamination process using fluoropolymers to provide protection from adverse environmental conditions and thus enable more extended use of solar cells, particularly in space applications. A laminate of fluoropolymer material provides a hermetically sealed solar cell module structure that is flexible and very durable. The laminate is virtually chemically inert, highly transmissive in the visible spectrum, dimensionally stable at temperatures up to about 200.degree. C. highly abrasion resistant, and exhibits very little ultra-violet degradation.

  13. Compact magnetic energy storage module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prueitt, Melvin L.

    1994-01-01

    A superconducting compact magnetic energy storage module in which a plurality of superconducting toroids, each having a toroidally wound superconducting winding inside a poloidally wound superconducting winding, are stacked so that the flow of electricity in each toroidally wound superconducting winding is in a direction opposite from the direction of electrical flow in other contiguous superconducting toroids. This allows for minimal magnetic pollution outside of the module.

  14. Wide-range voltage modulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rust, K.R.; Wilson, J.M.

    1992-06-01

    The Superconducting Super Collider`s Medium Energy Booster Abort (MEBA) kicker modulator will supply a current pulse to the abort magnets which deflect the proton beam from the MEB ring into a designated beam stop. The abort kicker will be used extensively during testing of the Low Energy Booster (LEB) and the MEB rings. When the Collider is in full operation, the MEBA kicker modulator will abort the MEB beam in the event of a malfunction during the filling process. The modulator must generate a 14-{mu}s wide pulse with a rise time of less than 1 {mu}s, including the delay and jitter times. It must also be able to deliver a current pulse to the magnet proportional to the beam energy at any time during ramp-up of the accelerator. Tracking the beam energy, which increases from 12 GeV at injection to 200 GeV at extraction, requires the modulator to operate over a wide range of voltages (4 kV to 80 kV). A vacuum spark gap and a thyratron have been chosen for test and evaluation as candidate switches for the abort modulator. Modulator design, switching time delay, jitter and pre-fire data are presented.

  15. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  16. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  17. Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use.After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

  18. The Future of Microbial Genomics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyrpides, Nikos [Genome Biology group at the DOE Joint Genome Institute

    2010-06-02

    Nikos Kyrpides, head of the Genome Biology group at the DOE Joint Genome Institute discusses current challenges in the field of microbial genomics on June 2, 2010 at the "Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future" meeting in Santa Fe, NM

  19. Trinity: supercomputing into the future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Trinity: supercomputing into the future Trinity: supercomputing into the future The need for 3D simulations has brought the Trinity supercomputer to Los Alamos. Trinity will make complex 3D simulations of nuclear detonations with increased fidelity and resolution practical. July 10, 2015 trinity to trinity feature image Trinity to Trinity "Highly accurate 3D computing is a Holy Grail of the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputing efforts. As the weapons age, 3D features tend to be

  20. Energy and Infrastructure Future Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Rush Robinett Energy &Infrastructure Future Group Sandia National Laboratories rdrobin@sandia.gov Energy & Infrastructure Future Overview 2 Sandia's Core Purpose "Helping our Nation Secure a Peaceful and Free World through Technology" * National Security Laboratory * Broad mission in developing science and technology applications to meet our rapidly changing, complex national security challenges * Safety, security and reliability of our nation's nuclear weapon stockpile 3

  1. Laser frequency modulator for modulating a laser cavity

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Erbert, Gaylen V. (Livermore, CA)

    1992-01-01

    The present invention relates to a laser frequency modulator for modulating a laser cavity. It is known in the prior art to utilize a PZT (piezoelectric transducer) element in combination with a mirror to change the cavity length of a laser cavity (which changes the laser frequency). Using a PZT element to drive the mirror directly is adequate at frequencies below 10 kHz. However, in high frequency applications (100 kHz and higher) PZT elements alone do not provide a sufficient change in the cavity length. The present invention utilizes an ultrasonic concentrator with a PZT element and mirror to provide modulation of the laser cavity. With an ultrasonic concentrator, the mirror element at the end of a laser cavity can move at larger amplitudes and higher frequencies.

  2. Apparatus for encapsulating a photovoltaic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Albright, Scot P. (El Paso, TX); Dugan, Larry M. (Boulder, CO)

    1995-10-24

    The subject inventions concern various photovoltaic module designs to protect the module from horizontal and vertical impacts and degradation of solar cell efficiency caused by moisture. In one design, a plurality of panel supports that are positioned adjacent to the upper panel in a photovoltaic module absorb vertical forces exerted along an axis perpendicular to the upper panel. Other designs employ layers of glass and tempered glass, respectively, to protect the module from vertical impacts. A plurality of button-shaped channels is used around the edges of the photovoltaic module to absorb forces applied to the module along an axis parallel to the module and direct moisture away from the module that could otherwise penetrate the module and adversely affect the cells within the module. A spacer is employed between the upper and lower panels that has a coefficient of thermal expansion substantially equivalent to the coefficient of thermal expansion of at least one of the panels.

  3. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  4. NEMS integrating module documentation report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-14

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system that produces a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand in the US energy markets. The model achieves a supply and demand balance in the end-use demand regions, defined as the nine Census Divisions, by solving for the prices of each energy type such that the quantities producers are willing to supply equal the quantities consumers wish to consume. The system reflects market economics, industry structure, and energy policies and regulations that influence market behavior. The NEMS Integrating Module is the central integrating component of a complex modeling system. As such, a thorough understanding of its role in the modeling process can only be achieved by placing it in the proper context with respect to the other modules. To that end, this document provides an overview of the complete NEMS model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  5. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  6. Active combustion flow modulation valve

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hensel, John Peter; Black, Nathaniel; Thorton, Jimmy Dean; Vipperman, Jeffrey Stuart; Lambeth, David N; Clark, William W

    2013-09-24

    A flow modulation valve has a slidably translating hollow armature with at least one energizable coil wound around and fixably attached to the hollow armature. The energizable coil or coils are influenced by at least one permanent magnet surrounding the hollow armature and supported by an outer casing. Lorentz forces on the energizable coils which are translated to the hollow armature, increase or decrease the flow area to provide flow throttling action. The extent of hollow armature translation depends on the value of current supplied and the direction of translation depends on the direction of current flow. The compact nature of the flow modulation valve combined with the high forces afforded by the actuator design provide a flow modulation valve which is highly responsive to high-rate input control signals.

  7. Reflective coherent spatial light modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simpson, John T. (Knoxville, TN); Richards, Roger K. (Knoxville, TN); Hutchinson, Donald P. (Knoxville, TN); Simpson, Marcus L. (Knoxville, TN)

    2003-04-22

    A reflective coherent spatial light modulator (RCSLM) includes a subwavelength resonant grating structure (SWS), the SWS including at least one subwavelength resonant grating layer (SWL) have a plurality of areas defining a plurality of pixels. Each pixel represents an area capable of individual control of its reflective response. A structure for modulating the resonant reflective response of at least one pixel is provided. The structure for modulating can include at least one electro-optic layer in optical contact with the SWS. The RCSLM is scalable in both pixel size and wavelength. A method for forming a RCSLM includes the steps of selecting a waveguide material and forming a SWS in the waveguide material, the SWS formed from at least one SWL, the SWL having a plurality of areas defining a plurality of pixels.

  8. Solid-state membrane module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gordon, John Howard (Salt Lake City, UT); Taylor, Dale M. (Murray, UT)

    2011-06-07

    Solid-state membrane modules comprising at least one membrane unit, where the membrane unit has a dense mixed conducting oxide layer, and at least one conduit or manifold wherein the conduit or manifold comprises a dense layer and at least one of a porous layer and a slotted layer contiguous with the dense layer. The solid-state membrane modules may be used to carry out a variety of processes including the separating of any ionizable component from a feedstream wherein such ionizable component is capable of being transported through a dense mixed conducting oxide layer of the membrane units making up the membrane modules. For ease of construction, the membrane units may be planar.

  9. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  10. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  11. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  12. FutureGen Project Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for dry-fed gasifier configuration Full capital cost report and cost category analysis (CAPEX) Full operating cost report and assumptions (OPEX) Comparative technology evaluations, value engineering exercises, and initial air permitting activities are also provided; the report concludes with schedule, risk, and cost mitigation activities as well as lessons learned such that the products of this report can be used to support future investments in utility scale gasification and carbon capture and sequestration. Collectively, the FutureGen project enabled the comprehensive site specific evaluation and determination of the economic viability of IGCC-CCS. The project report is bound at that determination when DOE formally proposed the FutureGen 2.0 project which focuses on repowering a pulverized coal power plant with oxy-combustion technology including CCS.

  13. SiC Power Module

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    R&D 100 Entry SiC Power Module 2 R&D 100 Entry SiC Power Module Submitting OrganizatiOn Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800, MS 1033 Albuquerque, NM 87185-1033 USA Stanley Atcitty Phone: 505-284-2701 Fax: 505-844-2890 satcitt@sandia.gov AFFIRMATION: I affirm that all information submitted as a part of, or supplemental to, this entry is a fair and accurate representation of this product. _____________________________________ Stanley Atcitty JOint Entry Arkansas Power Electronics

  14. Programmable Multi-Chip Module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David (Lenexa, KS); Morgenstern, Howard (Lee's Summit, MO); Blazek, Roy J. (Overland Park, KS)

    2005-05-24

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  15. Programmable multi-chip module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David; Morgenstern, Howard; Blazek, Roy J.

    2004-03-02

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  16. Programmable Multi-Chip Module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David (Lenexa, KS); Morgenstern, Howard (Lee's Summit, MO); Blazek, Roy J. (Overland Park, KS)

    2004-11-16

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  17. Water for future Mars astronauts?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water for future Mars astronauts? Water for future Mars astronauts? Within its first three months on Mars, NASA's Curiosity Rover saw a surprising diversity of soils and sediments along a half-kilometer route that tell a complex story about the gradual desiccation of the Red Planet. September 26, 2013 This image shows two areas on Mars in a location named Rocknest that were scooped out by the Curiosity Rover last year. Researchers took samples of the areas to determine whether they were wetter

  18. Powertrain Trends and Future Potential

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH reserves all rights even in the event of industrial property rights. We reserve all rights of disposal such as copying and passing on to third parties. Automotive Technology Powertrain Trends and Future Potential Dr. Johannes-Joerg Rueger Sr. Vice President, Robert Bosch Panel "New Directions in Engine and Fuels" DEER Conference, Dearborn, August 4, 2009 2 Powertrain Trends and Future Potential * Global Trends - Fighting Global Warming *

  19. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  20. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  1. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nations low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  2. A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions | Department of Energy A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions Presented at the PV Module Reliability Workshop, February 26 - 27 2013, Golden, Colorado PDF icon pvmrw13_ps5_dupont_gambogi.pdf More Documents & Publications Agenda for the PV Module

  3. Coal Market Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

  4. WRAP module 1 treatment plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mayancsik, B.A.

    1995-05-01

    This document provides the methodology to treat waste in the Waste Receiving and Processing Module 1 facility to meet the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) land disposal restrictions or the Waste Isolation and Pilot Plant waste acceptance criteria. This includes Low-Level Mixed Waste, Transuranic Waste, and Transuranic Mixed Waste.

  5. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  6. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  7. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  8. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  9. Model Documentation Report: Residential Demand Module of the...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (conditioned square footage) based on current Census Bureau data. * Revision of the benchmarking process that incorporates historical and near-term forecasted values. December 2012...

  10. Residential Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (conditioned square footage) based on current Census Bureau data. * Revision of the benchmarking process that incorporates historical and near-term forecasted values. * Revision of...

  11. Options for Kentucky's Energy Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larry Demick

    2012-11-01

    Three important imperatives are being pursued by the Commonwealth of Kentucky: ? Developing a viable economic future for the highly trained and experienced workforce and for the Paducah area that today supports, and is supported by, the operations of the US Department of Energys (DOEs) Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP). Currently, the PGDP is scheduled to be taken out of service in May, 2013. ? Restructuring the economic future for Kentuckys most abundant indigenous resource and an important industry the extraction and utilization of coal. The future of coal is being challenged by evolving and increasing requirements for its extraction and use, primarily from the perspective of environmental restrictions. Further, it is important that the economic value derived from this important resource for the Commonwealth, its people and its economy is commensurate with the risks involved. Over 70% of the extracted coal is exported from the Commonwealth and hence not used to directly expand the Commonwealths economy beyond the severance taxes on coal production. ? Ensuring a viable energy future for Kentucky to guarantee a continued reliable and affordable source of energy for its industries and people. Today, over 90% of Kentuckys electricity is generated by burning coal with a delivered electric power price that is among the lowest in the United States. Anticipated increased environmental requirements necessitate looking at alternative forms of energy production, and in particular electricity generation.

  12. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    030116 030216 030316 030416 030716 030816 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 1.57 1.60 1.59 1.49 1.56 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 1.742 1.678 1.639 1.666 1.690 ...

  13. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    012916 020516 021216 021916 022616 030416 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.22 2.11 2.16 1.94 1.82 1.57 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.20 2.05 2.05 1.88 1.78 ...

  14. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 4.37 4.0 2.75 3.73 4.37 2.62 1997-2015 NGPL Composite 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 4.97 2007-2015 Futures Prices ...

  15. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.77 2.66 2.34 2.09 1.93 2.28 1997-2016 NGPL Composite 4.42 4.89 4.95 4.72 4.23 2009-2015 Futures Prices ...

  16. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.84 2.77 2.66 2.34 2.09 1.93 1997-2015 NGPL Composite 4.73 4.42 4.89 4.95 2009-2015 Futures Prices...

  17. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  18. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  19. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  20. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  1. Future Energy Solutions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solutions Jump to: navigation, search Name: Future Energy Solutions Place: Didcot, United Kingdom Zip: OX11 0QR Product: Future Energy Solutions is a sustainable energy...

  2. Future Energy Assets LP | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Assets LP Jump to: navigation, search Name: Future Energy Assets LP Place: Austin, Texas Zip: 78701 Product: String representation "Future Energy A ... S and in China." is too...

  3. Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future Draft Report to the Secretary of Energy ... The Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future (BRC) was formed by the Secretary ...

  4. Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. Authors: Brady, Patrick V....

  5. NREL: Energy Analysis - Renewable Electricity Futures Study

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of a dynamic map that is animated to display power flow in 2010 through 2050 The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) is...

  6. Hydrogen & Our Energy Future | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Future Hydrogen & Our Energy Future DOE overview of hydrogen fuel initiative and hydrogen production, delivery and storate hydrogenenergyfutureweb.pdf More Documents &...

  7. Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics Print Wednesday, 28 January 2015 00:00 With an aging population in ...

  8. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  9. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document that provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

  10. Waste Receiving and Processing Facility Module 2A: Advanced Conceptual Design Report. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This ACDR was performed following completed of the Conceptual Design Report in July 1992; the work encompassed August 1992 to January 1994. Mission of the WRAP Module 2A facility is to receive, process, package, certify, and ship for permanent burial at the Hanford site disposal facilities the Category 1 and 3 contact handled low-level radioactive mixed wastes that are currently in retrievable storage at Hanford and are forecast to be generated over the next 30 years by Hanford, and waste to be shipped to Hanford from about DOE sites. This volume provides an introduction to the ACDR process and the scope of the task along with a project summary of the facility, treatment technologies, cost, and schedule. Major areas of departure from the CDR are highlighted. Descriptions of the facility layout and operations are included.

  11. REGULATIONS ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE DISPOSAL AND RECYCLING.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    FTHENAKIS,V.

    2001-01-29

    Environmental regulations can have a significant impact on product use, disposal, and recycling. This report summarizes the basic aspects of current federal, state and international regulations which apply to end-of-life photovoltaic (PV) modules and PV manufacturing scrap destined for disposal or recycling. It also discusses proposed regulations for electronics that may set the ground of what is to be expected in this area in the near future. In the US, several states have started programs to support the recycling of electronic equipment, and materials destined for recycling often are excepted from solid waste regulations during the collection, transfer, storage and processing stages. California regulations are described separately because they are different from those of most other states. International agreements on the movement of waste between different countries may pose barriers to cross-border shipments. Currently waste moves freely among country members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and between the US and the four countries with which the US has bilateral agreements. However, it is expected, that the US will adopt the rules of the Basel Convention (an agreement which currently applies to 128 countries but not the US) and that the Convection's waste classification system will influence the current OECD waste-handling system. Some countries adopting the Basel Convention consider end-of-life electronics to be hazardous waste, whereas the OECD countries consider them to be non-hazardous. Also, waste management regulations potentially affecting electronics in Germany and Japan are mentioned in this report.

  12. Revision of the DELFIC Particle Activity Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hooper, David A; Jodoin, Vincent J

    2010-09-01

    The Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) was originally released in 1968 as a tool for modeling fallout patterns and for predicting exposure rates. Despite the continual advancement of knowledge of fission yields, decay behavior of fission products, and biological dosimetry, the decay data and logic of DELFIC have remained mostly unchanged since inception. Additionally, previous code revisions caused a loss of conservation of radioactive nuclides. In this report, a new revision of the decay database and the Particle Activity Module is introduced and explained. The database upgrades discussed are replacement of the fission yields with ENDF/B-VII data as formatted in the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code, revised decay constants, revised exposure rate multipliers, revised decay modes and branching ratios, and revised boiling point data. Included decay logic upgrades represent a correction of a flaw in the treatment of the fission yields, extension of the logic to include more complex decay modes, conservation of nuclides (including stable nuclides) at all times, and conversion of key variables to double precision for nuclide conservation. Finally, recommended future work is discussed with an emphasis on completion of the overall radiation physics upgrade, particularly for dosimetry, induced activity, decay of the actinides, and fractionation.

  13. Interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    English, R.E. Jr.; Johnson, S.A.

    1994-10-11

    An interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules is provided particularly for the purpose of delivering enhancing transverse energy beams in the form of illumination bar to the lasing zone of a dye laser device, in particular to a dye laser amplifier. The preferred interface module includes an optical fiber array having a plurality of optical fibers arrayed in a co-planar fashion with their distal ends receiving coherent laser energy from an enhancing laser source, and their proximal ends delivered into a relay structure. The proximal ends of the optical fibers are arrayed so as to be coplanar and to be aimed generally at a common point. The transverse energy beam array delivered from the optical fiber array is acted upon by an optical element array to produce an illumination bar which has a cross section in the form of a elongated rectangle at the position of the lasing window. The illumination bar is selected to have substantially uniform intensity throughout. 5 figs.

  14. Interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    English, Jr., Ronald E.; Johnson, Steve A.

    1994-01-01

    An interface module (10) for transverse energy input to dye laser modules is provided particularly for the purpose of delivering enhancing transverse energy beams (36) in the form of illumination bar (54) to the lasing zone (18) of a dye laser device, in particular to a dye laser amplifier (12). The preferred interface module (10) includes an optical fiber array (30) having a plurality of optical fibers (38) arrayed in a co-planar fashion with their distal ends (44) receiving coherent laser energy from an enhancing laser source (46), and their proximal ends (4) delivered into a relay structure (3). The proximal ends (42) of the optical fibers (38) are arrayed so as to be coplanar and to be aimed generally at a common point. The transverse energy beam array (36) delivered from the optical fiber array (30) is acted upon by an optical element array (34) to produce an illumination bar (54) which has a cross section in the form of a elongated rectangle at the position of the lasing window (18). The illumination bar (54) is selected to have substantially uniform intensity throughout.

  15. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  16. Wind Generation in the Future Competitive California Power Market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Marnay, C.; Bretz, S.

    1998-03-01

    The goal of this work is to develop improved methods for assessing the viability of wind generation in competitive electricity markets. The viability of a limited number of possible wind sites is assessed using a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the cost of development, and Elfin, an electric utility production costing and capacity expansion model, to estimate the possible revenues and profits of wind farms at the sites. This approach improves on a simple profitability calculation by using a site-specific development cost calculation and by taking the effect of time varying market prices on revenues into account. The first component of the work is to develop data characterizing wind resources suitable for use in production costing and capacity expansion models, such as Elfin, that are capable of simulating competitive electricity markets. An improved representation of California wind resources is built, using information collected by the California Energy Commission (CE C) in previous site evaluations, and by using a GIS approach to estimating development costs at 36 specific sites. These sites, which have been identified as favorable for wind development, are placed on Digital Elevation Maps (DEMs) and development costs are calculated based on distances to roads and transmission lines. GIS is also used to develop the potential capacity at each site by making use of the physical characteristics of the terrain, such as ridge lengths. In the second part of the effort, using a previously developed algorithm for simulating competitive entry to the California electricity market, the Elfin model is used to gauge the viability of wind farms at the 36 sites. The results of this exercise are forecasts of profitable development levels at each site and the effects of these developments on the electricity system as a whole. Under best guess assumptions, including prohibition of new nuclear and coal capacity, moderate increase in gas prices and some decline in renewable capital costs, about 7.35 GW of the 10 GW potential capacity at the 36 specific sites is profitably developed and 62 TWh of electricity produced per annum by the year 2030. Most of the development happens during the earlier years of the forecast. Sensitivity of these results to future gas price scenarios is also presented. This study also demonstrates that an analysis based on a simple levelized profitability calculation approach does not sufficiently capture the implications of time varying prices in a competitive market.

  17. PV module mounting method and mounting assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lenox, Carl J.S.; Johnson, Kurt M.

    2013-04-23

    A method for mounting PV modules to a deck includes selecting PV module layout pattern so that adjacent PV module edges are spaced apart. PV mounting and support assemblies are secured to the deck according to the layout pattern using fasteners extending into the deck. The PV modules are placed on the PV mounting and support assemblies. Retaining elements are located over and secured against the upper peripheral edge surfaces of the PV modules so to secure them to the deck with the peripheral edges of the PV modules spaced apart from the deck. In some examples a PV module mounting assembly, for use on a shingled deck, comprises flashing, a base mountable on the flashing, a deck-penetrating fastener engageable with the base and securable to the deck so to secure the flashing and the base to the shingled deck, and PV module mounting hardware securable to the base.

  18. Mounting support for a photovoltaic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Brandt, Gregory Michael; Barsun, Stephan K.; Coleman, Nathaniel T.; Zhou, Yin

    2013-03-26

    A mounting support for a photovoltaic module is described. The mounting support includes a foundation having an integrated wire-way ledge portion. A photovoltaic module support mechanism is coupled with the foundation.

  19. Extension Modules for the Python Interpretive language

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-12-29

    Python is an interpreted computer language, freely available to all, which may be extended by user developed "modules". These modules ay be written in a complied language such as 'C', and then linked into the Python program

  20. Tunable Surface Plasmon Infrared Modulator - Energy Innovation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Industries Infrared Modulator IR Counter Measures Photonic Circuitry Metamaterials Chemical Sensing Variable Attenuation Patents and Patent Applications ID Number...

  1. Module: Estimating Historical Emissions from Deforestation |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Website: www.leafasia.orgtoolstechnical-guidance-series-estimating-historical Cost: Free Language: English Module: Estimating Historical Emissions from Deforestation Screenshot...

  2. High Heat Flux Thermoelectric Module Using Standard Bulk Material...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Heat Flux Thermoelectric Module Using Standard Bulk Material High Heat Flux Thermoelectric Module Using Standard Bulk Material Presents high heat flux thermoelectric module design...

  3. Project Execution Plan Review Module (RM) | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Review Module (RM) Project Execution Plan Review Module (RM) The Project Execution Plan (PEP) Review Module (RM) is a tool that assists DOE federal project review teams in...

  4. Module Embedded Microinverter Smart Grid Ready Residential Solar...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Module Embedded Microinverter Smart Grid Ready Residential Solar Electric System Module ... module integration and packaging, and integration with a new intelligent circuit breaker. ...

  5. A Stability of LCLS Linac Modulators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Decker, F.-J.; Krasnykh, A.; Morris, B.; Nguyen, M.; /SLAC

    2012-06-13

    Information concerning to a stability of LCLS RF linac modulators is allocated in this paper. In general a 'pulse-to-pulse' modulator stability (and RF phase as well) is acceptable for the LCLS commission and FEL programs. Further modulator stability improvements are possible and approaches are discussed based on our experimental results.

  6. Module 4 - Budgeting | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    4 - Budgeting Module 4 - Budgeting This module focuses on developing the cost baseline. This module outlines basic costing concepts such as control accounts, work packages and planning packages. Additionally, elements of an earned value contract baseline and proposed cost and contract budget baseline are covered

  7. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    15 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.75 2.69 2.69 2.70 2.70 2.61 1997-2015 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.72 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.57 1994-2015 Contract 2 2.75 2.70 2.76 2.76 2.75...

  8. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2.75 3.73 1997-2013 NGPL Composite 8.99 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 2007-2014 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.159 4.382 4.03 2.83 3.73 1994-2013 Contract 2 4.428 4.471 4.09 2.93 3.77...

  9. Choices for a Brighter Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Choices for a Brighter Future For more information contact: George Douglas, 303-275-4096 e:mail: George Douglas Golden, Colo., Nov. 12, 1999 - More and more Americans are getting the power to choose electricity suppliers as the utility industry is deregulated and reorganized. Those energy choices can affect health and well-being for many decades to come. Renewable energy sources—solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and hydropower—can provide reliable electricity while reducing environmental

  10. Future missions require improving LANSCE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future missions require improving LANSCE capabilities to support five principal research areas. 1) Improving capabilities at the Lujan Center-to use neutrons to probe soft materials-will improve understanding of the performance and aging of weapons materials, and will support development of the broad spectrum of materials needed for stockpile stewardship and threat reduction. 2) Enhancing high-accuracy nuclear cross-section measurements of actinide and short-lived isotopes for higher-fidelity

  11. Future City The Right Stuff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    City The Right Stuff NvE steps up for future technology. Marty Glasser takes over the security force. NSTec's Intellectual Property getting kudos. See page 6. See pages 4. New NNSS Weather Website Puts Site Conditions Center Stage On Jan. 7, the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) weather organization, ARL/SORD, launched its new website, www.sord.nv.doe.gov. ARL/SORD is a Department of Commerce organization under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and

  12. Drivers of Future Energy Demand

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Energy Demand in China Asian Energy Demand Outlook 2014 EIA Energy Conference July 14, 2014 Valerie J. Karplus MIT Sloan School of Management 2 www.china.org.cn www.flickr.com www.wikimedia.org globalchange.mit.edu Global Climate Change Human Development Local Pollution Industrial Development & Resource Needs How to balance? 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1981 1991 2001 2011 Non-material Sectors/Other Construction Commercial consumption Residential consumption Transportation

  13. Development of GREET Catalyst Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Zhichao; Benavides, Pahola T.; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Cronauer, Donald C.

    2015-09-01

    In this report, we develop energy and material flows for the production of five different catalysts (tar reforming, alcohol synthesis, Zeolite Socony Mobil-5 [ZSM-5], Mo/Co/ ?-Al2O3, and Pt/ ?-Al2O3) and two chemicals (olivine, dimethyl ether of polyethylene glycol [DEPG]). These compounds and catalysts are now included in the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) catalyst module.

  14. Pulse amplitude modulated chlorophyll fluorometer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Greenbaum, Elias; Wu, Jie

    2015-12-29

    Chlorophyll fluorometry may be used for detecting toxins in a sample because of changes in micro algae. A portable lab on a chip ("LOAC") based chlorophyll fluorometer may be used for toxin detection and environmental monitoring. In particular, the system may include a microfluidic pulse amplitude modulated ("PAM") chlorophyll fluorometer. The LOAC PAM chlorophyll fluorometer may analyze microalgae and cyanobacteria that grow naturally in source drinking water.

  15. Gas separation membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wynn, Nicholas P (Palo Alto, CA); Fulton, Donald A. (Fairfield, CA)

    2009-03-31

    A gas-separation membrane module assembly and a gas-separation process using the assembly. The assembly includes a set of tubes, each containing gas-separation membranes, arranged within a housing. The housing contains a tube sheet that divides the space within the housing into two gas-tight spaces. A permeate collection system within the housing gathers permeate gas from the tubes for discharge from the housing.

  16. Solid-state membrane module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hinklin, Thomas Ray; Lewinsohn, Charles Arthur

    2015-06-30

    A module for separating oxygen from an oxygen-containing gaseous mixture comprising planar solid-state membrane units, each membrane unit comprising planar dense mixed conducting oxides layers, planar channel-free porous support layers, and one or more planar intermediate support layers comprising at least one channeled porous support layer. The porosity of the planar channeled porous support layers is less than the porosity of the planar channel-free porous support layers.

  17. Argonne's SpEC Module | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SpEC Module Share Topic Energy Energy efficiency Vehicles

  18. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  19. NNSS Futures Safer Las Vegas

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Futures Safer Las Vegas Site contractor supports high school engineering competition. Recycled motor oil will be used to heat some buildings at the NNSS. RSL takes public affairs on a ride to see detection mission. See page 8. See page 12. See pages 4-5. D'Agostino Retires After 36 Years of Federal Service National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Administrator Tom D'Agostino retired on Jan. 18, 2013, after more than 36 years of Federal service. D'Agostino began his career in the U.S. Navy

  20. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  1. Energy Efficiency at Home - An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    More Documents & Publications Alternative Energy Sources - An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy Education Alternative Energy Sources - An Interdisciplinary Module for Energy ...

  2. Microsoft PowerPoint - FinalModule8.ppt

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    8: Reporting Prepared by: Module 8 - Reporting 1 Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Module 8: Government Required Reports Welcome to Module 8. The objective of this module is to introduce you to Government required reports. The Topics that will be addressed in this Module include: * Define Cost Performance Report (CPR) * Define Cost/Schedule Status Report (C/SSR) Module 8 - Reporting 2 Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Review of Previous Modules In the previous seven modules, we discussed the

  3. Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer: From Future Power Systems (FPS) articles 18...

  4. LNG Analysis Summary: A Different Way of Looking at the Future of World LNG Trade

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report examines alternative future scenarios for global LNG trade. The analysis calibrates initial liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand projections to external forecasts. Alternative LNG demand and supply scenarios are then generated to assess a range of potential outcomes. Scenarios include variations in Chinese, European and Japanese market conditions, changes in natural gas pipeline supplies and alternative LNG export conditions from the Middle East. Overall, the report foresees a LNG market where supply growth is likely to outpace demand and lead to downward pressure on LNG prices. The analysis projects North American LNG exports to the Atlantic Basin to fall in a range between 8.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and 12.2 Bcfd in 2030.

  5. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  6. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  7. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  8. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  9. Final Technical Report - Recovery Act: Organic Coatings as Encapsulants for Low Cost, High Performance PV Modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stuart Hellring; Jiping Shao; James Poole

    2011-12-05

    The objective of this project was to evaluate the feasibility of utilizing PPG's commercial organic coatings systems as efficient, modernized encapsulants for low cost, high performance, thin film photovoltaic modules. Our hypothesis was that the combination of an anticorrosive coating with a more traditional barrier topcoat would mitigate many electrochemical processes that are now responsible for the significant portion of photovoltaic (PV) failures, thereby nullifying the extremely high moisture barrier requirements of currently used encapsulation technology. Nine commercially available metal primer coatings and six commercially available top coatings were selected for screening. Twenty-one different primer/top coat combinations were evaluated. The primer coatings were shown to be the major contributor to corrosion inhibition, adhesion, and barrier properties. Two primer coatings and one top coating were downselected for testing on specially-fabricated test modules. The coated test modules passed initial current leakage and insulation testing. Damp Heat testing of control modules showed visible corrosion to the bus bar metal, whereas the coated modules showed none. One of the primer/top coat combinations retained solar power performance after Damp Heat testing despite showing some delamination at the EVA/solar cell interface. Thermal Cycling and Humidity Freeze testing resulted in only one test module retaining its power performance. Failure modes depended on the particular primer/top coating combination used. Overall, this study demonstrated that a relatively thin primer/top coating has the potential to replace the potting film and backsheet in crystalline silicon-based photovoltaic modules. Positive signals were received from commercially available coatings developed for applications having performance requirements different from those required for photovoltaic modules. It is likely that future work to redesign and customize these coatings would result in a coating system meeting the requirements for photovoltaic module encapsulation.

  10. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  11. Toward an energy surety future.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tatro, Marjorie L.; Jones, Scott A.; Covan, John Morgan; Kuswa, Glenn W.; Menicucci, David F.; Robinett, Rush D. III

    2005-10-01

    Because of the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the corresponding release of carbon to the environment, the global energy future is complex. Some of the consequences may be politically and economically disruptive, and expensive to remedy. For the next several centuries, fuel requirements will increase with population, land use, and ecosystem degradation. Current or projected levels of aggregated energy resource use will not sustain civilization as we know it beyond a few more generations. At the same time, issues of energy security, reliability, sustainability, recoverability, and safety need attention. We supply a top-down, qualitative model--the surety model--to balance expenditures of limited resources to assure success while at the same time avoiding catastrophic failure. Looking at U.S. energy challenges from a surety perspective offers new insights on possible strategies for developing solutions to challenges. The energy surety model with its focus on the attributes of security and sustainability could be extrapolated into a global energy system using a more comprehensive energy surety model than that used here. In fact, the success of the energy surety strategy ultimately requires a more global perspective. We use a 200 year time frame for sustainability because extending farther into the future would almost certainly miss the advent and perfection of new technologies or changing needs of society.

  12. Coal: Energy for the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report was prepared in response to a request by the US Department of energy (DOE). The principal objectives of the study were to assess the current DOE coal program vis-a-vis the provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), and to recommend the emphasis and priorities that DOE should consider in updating its strategic plan for coal. A strategic plan for research, development, demonstration, and commercialization (RDD and C) activities for coal should be based on assumptions regarding the future supply and price of competing energy sources, the demand for products manufactured from these sources, technological opportunities, and the need to control the environmental impact of waste streams. These factors change with time. Accordingly, the committee generated strategic planning scenarios for three time periods: near-term, 1995--2005; mid-term, 2006--2020; and, long-term, 2021--2040. The report is divided into the following chapters: executive summary; introduction and scope of the study; overview of US DOE programs and planning; trends and issues for future coal use; the strategic planning framework; coal preparation, coal liquid mixtures, and coal bed methane recovery; clean fuels and specialty products from coal; electric power generation; technology demonstration and commercialization; advanced research programs; conclusions and recommendations; appendices; and glossary. 174 refs.

  13. Electrostatically actuatable light modulating device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Koehler, Dale R. (1332 Wagontrain Dr., Albuquerque, NM 87123)

    1991-01-01

    The electrostatically actuatable light modulator utilizes an opaque substrate plate patterned with an array of aperture cells, the cells comprised of physically positionable dielectric shutters and electrostatic actuators. With incorporation of a light source and a viewing screen, a projection display system is effected. Inclusion of a color filter array aligned with the aperture cells accomplishes a color display. The system is realized in terms of a silicon based manufacturing technology allowing fabrication of a high resolution capability in a physically small device which with the utilization of included magnification optics allows both large and small projection displays.

  14. Runtime System Library for Parallel Weather Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1997-07-22

    RSL is a Fortran-callable runtime library for use in implementing regular-grid weather forecast models, with nesting, on scalable distributed memory parallel computers. It provides high-level routines for finite-difference stencil communications and inter-domain exchange of data for nested forcing and feedback. RSL supports a unique point-wise domain-decomposition strategy to facilitate load-balancing.

  15. In-line thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pento, Robert (Algonquin, IL); Marks, James E. (Glenville, NY); Staffanson, Clifford D. (S. Glens Falls, NY)

    2000-01-01

    A thermoelectric module with a plurality of electricity generating units each having a first end and a second end, the units being arranged first end to second end along an in-line axis. Each unit includes first and second elements each made of a thermoelectric material, an electrically conductive hot member arranged to heat one side of the first element, and an electrically conductive cold member arranged to cool another side of the first element and to cool one side of the second element. The hot member, the first element, the cold member and the second element are supported in a fixture, are electrically connected respectively to provide an electricity generating unit, and are arranged respectively in positions along the in-line axis. The individual components of each generating unit and the respective generating units are clamped in their in-line positions by a loading bolt at one end of the fixture and a stop wall at the other end of the fixture. The hot members may have a T-shape and the cold members an hourglass shape to facilitate heat transfer. The direction of heat transfer through the hot members may be perpendicular to the direction of heat transfer through the cold members, and both of these heat transfer directions may be perpendicular to the direction of current flow through the module.

  16. Binary module test. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schilling, J.R.; Colley, T.C.; Pundyk, J.

    1980-12-01

    The objective of this project was to design and test a binary loop module representative of and scaleable to commercial size units. The design was based on state-of-the-art heat exchanger technology, and the purpose of the tests was to confirm performance of a supercritical boiling cycle using isobutane and a mixture of isobutane and isopentane as the secondary working fluid. The module was designed as one percent of a 50 MW unit. It was installed at Magma Power's East Mesa geothermal field and tested over a period of approximately 4 months. Most of the test runs were with isobutane but some data were collected for hydrocarbon mixtures. The results of the field tests are reported. In general these results indicate reasonably good heat balances and agreement with overall heat transfer coefficients calculated by current stream analysis methods and available fluid property data; however, measured pressure drops across the heat exchangers were 20 percent higher than estimated. System operation was stable under all conditions tested.

  17. Smart Fan Modules And System

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cipolla, Thomas M. (Katonah, NY); Kaufman, Richard I. (Somers, NY); Mok, Lawrence S. (Brewster, NY)

    2003-07-15

    A fan module including: two or more individual fans, each fan having an air movement means and a motor engaged with the air movement means for accelerating air entering each of the two or more individual fans; a temperature sensor for sensing a temperature associated with the two or more fans and for outputting a first signal corresponding to the temperature; rotational speed sensor for outputting a second signal corresponding to a rotational speed of each of the two or more fans; and a processor for receiving the first and second signals and controlling the two or more individual fans based on the first and second signals. A fan module including: two or more individual fans, each fan having an air movement means and a motor engaged with the air movement means for accelerating air entering each of the two or more individual fans; a temperature sensor for sensing a temperature associated with the two or more fans and for outputting a first signal corresponding to the temperature; rotational speed sensor for outputting a second signal corresponding to a rotational speed of each of the two or more fans; and a processor for receiving the first and second signals and controlling the two or more individual fans based on the first and second signals.

  18. Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1996-01-01

    How do futures markets affect spot market prices? This is one of the most pervasive questions surrounding futures markets, and it has been analyzed in numerous ways for many commodities.

  19. Keynote Address: Future Vision | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Vision Keynote Address: Future Vision May 20, 2014 1:00PM to 1:30PM PDT Pacific Ballroom Tuesday's keynote address by Raffi Garabedian, Chief Technology Officer, First Solar

  20. Development of an aerosol microphysical module: Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matsui, H.; Koike, Makoto; Kondo, Yutaka; Fast, Jerome D.; Takigawa, M.

    2014-09-30

    Number concentrations, size distributions, and mixing states of aerosols are essential parameters for accurate estimation of aerosol direct and indirect effects. In this study, we developed an aerosol module, designated Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS), that can represent these parameters explicitly by considering new particle formation (NPF), black carbon (BC) aging, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) processes. A two-dimensional bin representation is used for particles with dry diameters from 40 nm to 10 m to resolve both aerosol size (12 bins) and BC mixing state (10 bins) for a total of 120 bins. The particles with diameters from 1 to 40 nm are resolved using an additional 8 size bins to calculate NPF. The ATRAS module was implemented in the WRF-chem model and applied to examine the sensitivity of simulated mass, number, size distributions, and optical and radiative parameters of aerosols to NPF, BC aging and SOA processes over East Asia during the spring of 2009. BC absorption enhancement by coating materials was about 50% over East Asia during the spring, and the contribution of SOA processes to the absorption enhancement was estimated to be 10 20% over northern East Asia and 20 35% over southern East Asia. A clear north-south contrast was also found between the impacts of NPF and SOA processes on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations: NPF increased CCN concentrations at higher supersaturations (smaller particles) over northern East Asia, whereas SOA increased CCN concentrations at lower supersaturations (larger particles) over southern East Asia. Application of ATRAS to East Asia also showed that the impact of each process on each optical and radiative parameter depended strongly on the process and the parameter in question. The module can be used in the future as a benchmark model to evaluate the accuracy of simpler aerosol models and examine interactions between NPF, BC aging, and SOA processes under different meteorological conditions and emissions.

  1. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  2. Transportation Electrification Load Development For a Renewable Future Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Markel, Tony; Mai, Trieu; Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW

    2010-09-30

    Electrification of the transportation sector offers the opportunity to significantly reduce petroleum consumption. The transportation sector accounts for 70% of US petroleum consumption. The transition to electricity as a transportation fuel will create a new load for electricity generation. In support of a recent US Department of Energy funded activity that analyzed a future generation scenario with high renewable energy technology contributions, a set of regional hourly load profiles for electrified vehicles were developed for the 2010 to 2050 timeframe. These load profiles with their underlying assumptions will be presented in this paper. The transportation electrical energy was determined using regional population forecast data, historical vehicle per capita data, and market penetration growth functions to determine the number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in each analysis region. Two market saturation scenarios of 30% of sales and 50% of sales of PEVs consuming on average {approx}6 kWh per day were considered. Results were generated for 3109 counties and were consolidated to 134 Power Control Areas (PCA) for the use NREL's's regional generation planning analysis tool ReEDS. PEV aggregate load profiles from previous work were combined with vehicle population data to generate hourly loads on a regional basis. A transition from consumer-controlled charging toward utility-controlled charging was assumed such that by 2050 approximately 45% of the transportation energy demands could be delivered across 4 daily time slices under optimal control from the utility perspective. No other literature has addressed the potential flexibility in energy delivery to electric vehicles in connection with a regional power generation study. This electrified transportation analysis resulted in an estimate for both the flexible load and fixed load shapes on a regional basis that may evolve under two PEV market penetration scenarios. EVS25 Copyright.

  3. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    03/08/16 03/09/16 03/10/16 03/11/16 03/14/16 03/15/16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 1.60 1.61 1.72 1.74 1.68 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 1.712 1.752 1.788 1.822 1.819 1.851 1994-2016 Contract 2 1.803 1.846 1.883 1.915 1.914 1.945 1994-2016 Contract 3 1.906 1.946 1.989 2.023 2.024 2.057 1994-2016 Contract 4 2.001 2.041 2.086 2.121 2.122 2.155

  4. National Engineers Week: Future City Competition

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2012-06-14

    2011 Future Cities Competition inspires students all across South Carolina to pursue careers in environmental protection and engineering.

  5. The Future of Bioenergy Feedstock Production

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    2 Bioenergy Technologies Office background Feedstock assessment, production and logistics Biomass yield improvements Sustainable feedstock production Future...

  6. Hanford Story: Future - Questions - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Hanford Story Hanford Story: Future - Questions The Hanford Story Hanford Story: Future - Questions Email Email Page | Print Print Page |Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size What possibilities do you see for future uses of the Hanford Site? What potential uses do the community surrounding Hanford envision for areas of land on the site? Why is land on the Hanford Site important to the local tribes? How much of the site is potentially available for future uses? What were some of the

  7. European Strategy for Future Neutrino Physics

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    A workshop to discuss the possibilities for future neutrino investigations in Europe and the links to CERN.

  8. Portsmouth Future Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Use Portsmouth Future Use Portsmouth Site current state Portsmouth Site current state Portsmouth Site future conceptual illustration Portsmouth Site future conceptual illustration Integrated Approach Through a multifaceted community outreach program at Portsmouth, DOE worked diligently with stakeholders to understand the community's end-state vision for the Portsmouth site. With the assistance of the PORTSFuture Project and interaction with the Portsmouth Site Specific Advisory Board,

  9. Power module assemblies with staggered coolant channels

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Herron, Nicholas Hayden; Mann, Brooks S; Korich, Mark D

    2013-07-16

    A manifold is provided for supporting a power module assembly with a plurality of power modules. The manifold includes a first manifold section. The first face of the first manifold section is configured to receive the first power module, and the second face of the first manifold section defines a first cavity with a first baseplate thermally coupled to the first power module. The first face of the second manifold section is configured to receive the second power module, and the second face of the second manifold section defines a second cavity with a second baseplate thermally coupled to the second power module. The second face of the first manifold section and the second face of the second manifold section are coupled together such that the first cavity and the second cavity form a coolant channel. The first cavity is at least partially staggered with respect to second cavity.

  10. Growing the Future Bioeconomy | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Future Bioeconomy Growing the Future Bioeconomy Breakout Session IA-Conversion Technologies I: Industrial Perspectives on Pathways to Advanced Biofuels Growing the Future Bioeconomy Joel Velasco, Senior Vice President, Amyris, Inc PDF icon velasco_biomass_2014 More Documents & Publications Biomass IBR Fact Sheet: Amyris, Inc. Biomass IBR Fact Sheet: Amyris, Inc. Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuels

  11. Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy Technologies

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Tillemann, Levi; Beck, Fredric; Brodrick, James; Brown, Austin; Feldman, David; Nguyen, Tien; Ward, Jacob

    2013-09-17

    For decades, America has anticipated the transformational impact of clean energy technologies. But even as costs fell and technology matured, a clean energy revolution always seemed just out of reach. Critics often said a clean energy future would "always be five years away." This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are here today. In the last five years they have achieved dramatic reductions in cost and this has been accompanied by a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial deployment. Although these four technologies still represent a small percentage of their total market, they are growing rapidly. The four key technologies this report focuses on are: onshore wind power, polysilicon photovoltaic modules, LED lighting, and electric vehicles.

  12. Integrated Module Heat Exchanger | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Module Heat Exchanger Integrated Module Heat Exchanger 2012 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting PDF icon ape047_bennion_2012_p.pdf More Documents & Publications Integrated Power Module Cooling Vehicle Technologies Office: 2008 Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machinery R&D Annual Progress Report Power Electronic Thermal System Performance and Integration

  13. Development of an Air-Source Heat Pump Integrated with a Water Heating / Dehumidification Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, C Keith; Uselton, Robert B.; Shen, Bo; Baxter, Van D; Shrestha, Som S

    2014-01-01

    A residential-sized dual air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) concept is under development in partnership between ORNL and a manufacturer. The concept design consists of a two-stage air-source heat pump (ASHP) coupled on the air distribution side with a separate novel water heating/dehumidification (WH/DH) module. The motivation for this unusual equipment combination is the forecast trend for home sensible loads to be reduced more than latent loads. Integration of water heating with a space dehumidification cycle addresses humidity control while performing double-duty. This approach can be applied to retrofit/upgrade applications as well as new construction. A WH/DH module capable of ~1.47 L/h water removal and ~2 kW water heating capacity was assembled by the manufacturer. A heat pump system model was used to guide the controls design; lab testing was conducted and used to calibrate the models. Performance maps were generated and used in a TRNSYS sub-hourly simulation to predict annual performance in a well-insulated house. Annual HVAC/WH energy savings of ~35% are predicted in cold and hot-humid U.S. climates compared to a minimum efficiency baseline.

  14. PV Cell and Module Calibrations at NREL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emery, Keith

    2012-10-22

    NREL has equipment to measure any conceivable cell or module technology. The lack of standards for low concentration modules complicates matters. Spectrally adjustable simulators are critical for more than three junctions. NREL's 10-channel fiber optic simulator has shown that the light can be set for each junction within 1% of what it would be under the reference spectrum for up to a five-junction cell. Uncertainty in module simulators dominated by spatial nonuniformity for calibration labs. Manufacturers can mitigate this error by using matched reference modules instead of cells.

  15. Advanced Low Temperature Absorption Chiller Module Integrated...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Temperature Absorption Chiller Module Integrated with a CHP System at a Distributed Data Center - Presentation by Exergy Partners Corp., June 2011 Advanced Low Temperature ...

  16. Optical sensing based on wavelength modulation spectroscopy

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Buckley, Steven G. (Redmond, WA); Gharavi, Mohammadreza (Tehran, IR); Borchers; Marco (Berlin, DE)

    2011-06-28

    Techniques, apparatus and systems for using Wavelength Modulation Spectroscopy measurements to optically monitor gas media such as gases in gas combustion chambers.

  17. Integrated Performance Testing Workshop, Modules 6 - 11

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leach, Janice; Torres, Teresa M.

    2012-10-01

    These modules cover performance testing of: Interior Detection Systems; Access Controls; Exterior Detection Systems; Video Assessment Systems; SNM / Contraband Detection Systems; Access Delay Elements

  18. Solid State Marx Modulators for Emerging Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kemp, M.A.; /SLAC

    2012-09-14

    Emerging linear accelerator applications increasingly push the boundaries of RF system performance and economics. The power modulator is an integral part of RF systems whose characteristics play a key role in the determining parameters such as efficiency, footprint, cost, stability, and availability. Particularly within the past decade, solid-state switch based modulators have become the standard in high-performance, high power modulators. One topology, the Marx modulator, has characteristics which make it particularly attractive for several emerging applications. This paper is an overview of the Marx topology, some recent developments, and a case study of how this architecture can be applied to a few proposed linear accelerators.

  19. NREL: Measurements and Characterization - Outdoor Module Current...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of prototype concentrator modules and cells mounted in a 2-axis tracker; translation equations, stability and performance of concentrator Up to 10 samples at a time;...

  20. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.