National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for module forecasts future

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  3. Module 6- Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices.

  4. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  9. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  11. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  12. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  13. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  14. The Present and Future Silver Cost Component in Crystalline Silicon PV Module Manufacturing

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This paper seeks to determine how increased c-Si PV module production might affect future silver demand and prices, as well as the impacts on total c-Si module manufacturing costs. To evaluate how...

  15. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  16. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  17. Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Future Print Information about the future expansion of research fields for synchrotrons and the growing number of light sources, including free electron lasers (FELs) will be posted here shortly.

  18. Modules

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Modules Modules Modules Approach to Managing The Environment Modules is a system which you can use to specify what software you want to use. If you want to use a particular software package loading its module will take care of the details of modifying your environment as necessary. The advantage of the modules approach is that the you are not required to explicitly specify paths for different executable versions and try to keep their related man paths and environment variables coordinated.

  19. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  20. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, ...

  1. Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Qing; Hagos, Samson M.; Qian, Yun

    2015-09-12

    This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

  2. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting. | Department of Energy 0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. (297.93 KB) More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011 Update

  3. Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1993-05-01

    This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

  4. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  5. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  7. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  9. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  10. Renewable Fuels Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  12. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  13. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  14. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  15. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  16. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 20 - The Smart Enterprise...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    all gives inefficient burn which costs more in fuel and emissions per kWh. Future Power Systems 20 The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Steve ...

  17. The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use Reviews future market trends and forecasts, and future engine challenges and research focus PDF icon ...

  18. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  19. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  1. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  2. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  3. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  5. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  6. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  8. Commercial Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  9. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  10. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  11. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  12. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  13. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  14. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  15. Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sector program Execution Plans (1-3 yrs) HR Strategic Plan (1-3 yrs) Current hiring Lists (1-2 yrs) Succession Plans (1-x yrs) UpdateValidate Strategic Staff...

  16. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Though the cost of providing a reliable and diverse supply of isotopes for medical use may ... More Documents & Publications Final Report, NEAC Subcommittee for Isotope Research & ...

  17. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  18. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  19. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  20. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  1. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  2. VERDE Analytic Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2008-01-15

    The Verde Analytic Modules permit the user to ingest openly available data feeds about phenomenology (storm tracks, wind, precipitation, earthquake, wildfires, and similar natural and manmade power grid disruptions and forecast power outages, restoration times, customers outaged, and key facilities that will lose power. Damage areas are predicted using historic damage criteria of the affected area. The modules use a cellular automata approach to estimating the distribution circuits assigned to geo-located substations. Population estimates servedmore » within the service areas are located within 1 km grid cells and converted to customer counts by conversion through demographic estimation of households and commercial firms within the population cells. Restoration times are estimated by agent-based simulation of restoration crews working according to utility published prioritization calibrated by historic performance.« less

  3. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  4. NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study February 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other

  5. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  6. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  7. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  8. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  9. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  10. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  11. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  12. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  13. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  14. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  17. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  18. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to plan for future outbreaks. The LANL team was able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China...

  19. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  20. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  1. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  2. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  3. Energy for the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy for the Future

  4. Module Configuration

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Oweis, Salah; D'Ussel, Louis; Chagnon, Guy; Zuhowski, Michael; Sack, Tim; Laucournet, Gaullume; Jackson, Edward J.

    2002-06-04

    A stand alone battery module including: (a) a mechanical configuration; (b) a thermal management configuration; (c) an electrical connection configuration; and (d) an electronics configuration. Such a module is fully interchangeable in a battery pack assembly, mechanically, from the thermal management point of view, and electrically. With the same hardware, the module can accommodate different cell sizes and, therefore, can easily have different capacities. The module structure is designed to accommodate the electronics monitoring, protection, and printed wiring assembly boards (PWAs), as well as to allow airflow through the module. A plurality of modules may easily be connected together to form a battery pack. The parts of the module are designed to facilitate their manufacture and assembly.

  5. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  6. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  7. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  9. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  10. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  11. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  12. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  13. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  14. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  15. Year Modules

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Annual photovoltaic module shipments, 2004-2014 (peak kilowatts) Year Modules 2004 143,274 2005 204,996 2006 320,208 2007 494,148 2008 920,693 2009 1,188,879 2010 2,644,498 2011 3,772,075 2012 4,655,005 2013 4,984,881 2014 6,237,524 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Note: Includes both U.S. Shipments and Exports.

  16. Year Modules

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    dollars per peak watt) Year Modules 2004 $2.99 2005 $3.19 2006 $3.50 2007 $3.37 2008 $3.49 2009 $2.79 2010 $1.96 2011 $1.59 2012 $1.15 2013 $0.75 2014 $0.87 Table 4. Average value of photovoltaic modules, 2004-2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Note: Dollars are not adjusted for inflation.

  17. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  18. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  19. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  20. NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study - Energy Information

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Administration NEMS Freight Transportation Module Improvement Study Release date: February 3, 2015 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) contracted with IHS Global, Inc. (IHS) to analyze the relationship between the value of industrial output, physical output, and freight movement in the United States for use in updating analytic assumptions and modeling structure within the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) freight transportation module, including forecasting methodologies

  1. Solar Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report July 2016

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report July 2016 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Solar Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report 1 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee

  2. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  3. A Buildings Module for the Stochastic Energy Deployment System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacommare, Kristina S H; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Lai, Judy

    2008-05-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) is building a new long-range (to 2050) forecasting model for use in budgetary and management applications called the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS), which explicitly incorporates uncertainty through its development within the Analytica(R) platform of Lumina Decision Systems. SEDS is designed to be a fast running (a few minutes), user-friendly model that analysts can readily run and modify in its entirety through a visual programming interface. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is responsible for implementing the SEDS Buildings Module. The initial Lite version of the module is complete and integrated with a shared code library for modeling demand-side technology choice developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lumina. The module covers both commercial and residential buildings at the U.S. national level using an econometric forecast of floorspace requirement and a model of building stock turnover as the basis for forecasting overall demand for building services. Although the module is fundamentally an engineering-economic model with technology adoption decisions based on cost and energy performance characteristics of competing technologies, it differs from standard energy forecasting models by including considerations of passive building systems, interactions between technologies (such as internal heat gains), and on-site power generation.

  4. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-08

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

  5. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  6. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  7. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  8. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  9. Thermionic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    King, Donald B.; Sadwick, Laurence P.; Wernsman, Bernard R.

    2002-06-18

    Modules of assembled microminiature thermionic converters (MTCs) having high energy-conversion efficiencies and variable operating temperatures manufactured using MEMS manufacturing techniques including chemical vapor deposition. The MTCs incorporate cathode to anode spacing of about 1 micron or less and use cathode and anode materials having work functions ranging from about 1 eV to about 3 eV. The MTCs also exhibit maximum efficiencies of just under 30%, and thousands of the devices and modules can be fabricated at modest costs.

  10. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  11. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  12. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  14. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  15. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  20. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  2. Energy structures and environmental futures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haugland, T.; Bergesen, H.O.; Roland, K.

    1998-11-01

    Energy is not only a basis for modern society, but also a product of it. This book is a study of the close and ever-changing relationship between the energy sector and the society that surrounds it. At the end of the twentieth century this relationship faces two fundamental challenges: First, the national confinement of modern energy systems is undermined by technological progress, making long-distance trade increasingly attractive, and by the broad trend towards economic internationalization in general and political integration in Europe in particular. Second, the risk of climate change may lead governments and publics to demand a profound restructuring of the entire energy sector. The purpose is to analyze how these two fundamental challenges, and the connection between them, can affect future energy developments in Europe. The analysis must be rooted in a firm understanding of the past. The first part of the book is therefore devoted to a systematic description and analysis of the energy sector in Europe as it has developed over the past twenty-five years, by major subsectors and with examples from the most important countries. Part 1 discusses trends and policies related to energy demand, energy sector developments in oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity, achievements and challenges in the environment, and the role of international policy bodies. Part 2 forecasts future developments in 1995--2020, by discussing the following: Paths for future developments; National rebound scenario; Liberalization and trade; Liberalization versus national rebound; and Environmental futures.

  3. Betting on the Future: The authors compare natural gas forecaststo futures buys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-20

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market. The goal is better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. Below is a discussion of our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this article we update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words

  4. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  5. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  6. Thermoelectric module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kortier, William E.; Mueller, John J.; Eggers, Philip E.

    1980-07-08

    A thermoelectric module containing lead telluride as the thermoelectric mrial is encapsulated as tightly as possible in a stainless steel canister to provide minimum void volume in the canister. The lead telluride thermoelectric elements are pressure-contacted to a tungsten hot strap and metallurgically bonded at the cold junction to iron shoes with a barrier layer of tin telluride between the iron shoe and the p-type lead telluride element.

  7. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies, market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  8. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Lenox, Carl J. S.; Culligan, Matthew; Danning, Matt

    2012-07-17

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame. The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  9. Photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Lenox, Carl J. S.; Culligan, Matthew; Danning, Matt

    2013-08-27

    A photovoltaic (PV) module including a PV device and a frame, The PV device has a PV laminate defining a perimeter and a major plane. The frame is assembled to and encases the laminate perimeter, and includes leading, trailing, and side frame members, and an arm that forms a support face opposite the laminate. The support face is adapted for placement against a horizontal installation surface, to support and orient the laminate in a non-parallel or tilted arrangement. Upon final assembly, the laminate and the frame combine to define a unitary structure. The frame can orient the laminate at an angle in the range of 3.degree.-7.degree. from horizontal, and can be entirely formed of a polymeric material. Optionally, the arm incorporates integral feature(s) that facilitate interconnection with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module.

  10. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  11. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  12. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  14. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  15. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  16. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  18. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  19. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  3. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  4. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  5. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  6. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  8. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  9. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  11. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  12. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  13. Supported PV module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mascolo, Gianluigi; Taggart, David F.; Botkin, Jonathan D.; Edgett, Christopher S.

    2013-10-15

    A supported PV assembly may include a PV module comprising a PV panel and PV module supports including module supports having a support surface supporting the module, a module registration member engaging the PV module to properly position the PV module on the module support, and a mounting element. In some embodiments the PV module registration members engage only the external surfaces of the PV modules at the corners. In some embodiments the assembly includes a wind deflector with ballast secured to a least one of the PV module supports and the wind deflector. An array of the assemblies can be secured to one another at their corners to prevent horizontal separation of the adjacent corners while permitting the PV modules to flex relative to one another so to permit the array of PV modules to follow a contour of the support surface.

  14. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  15. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  16. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  17. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  18. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phil Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve; Moore, Jim

    2007-03-09

    Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  19. Oil and Gas Supply Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2014

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Oil and Gas Supply Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2014 July 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | NEMS Model Documentation 2014: Oil and Gas Supply Module i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are

  20. Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System Model Documentation 2013

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System Model Documentation 2013 June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Model Documentation: Coal Market Module 2013 i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of

  1. Residential Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2014

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Residential Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2014 August 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | NEMS Residential Demand Module Documentation Report 2014 ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  3. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  4. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  6. Ballasted photovoltaic module and module arrays

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Botkin, Jonathan; Graves, Simon; Danning, Matt

    2011-11-29

    A photovoltaic (PV) module assembly including a PV module and a ballast tray. The PV module includes a PV device and a frame. A PV laminate is assembled to the frame, and the frame includes an arm. The ballast tray is adapted for containing ballast and is removably associated with the PV module in a ballasting state where the tray is vertically under the PV laminate and vertically over the arm to impede overt displacement of the PV module. The PV module assembly can be installed to a flat commercial rooftop, with the PV module and the ballast tray both resting upon the rooftop. In some embodiments, the ballasting state includes corresponding surfaces of the arm and the tray being spaced from one another under normal (low or no wind) conditions, such that the frame is not continuously subjected to a weight of the tray.

  7. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  8. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  9. Module 4- Budgeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This module outlines basic costing concepts such as control accounts, work packages and planning packages.

  10. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  11. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  12. Modules Software Environment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Environment » Modules Environment Modules Software Environment NERSC uses the module utility to manage nearly all software. There are two huge advantages of the module approach: NERSC can provide many different versions and/or installations of a single software package on a given machine, including a default version as well as several older and newer versions; and Users can easily switch to different versions or installations without having to explicitly specify different paths. With modules,

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. The Future of the Earth's Climate: Frontiers in Forecasting (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Collins, Bill

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2007: Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins discusses how observations show that the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented in recent history, and that human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry are probably the main culprits. He suggests a need for better observations and understanding of the carbon and hydrological cycles.

  15. FutureGen.ppt

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Erik Turner Summer 2004 Technical Career Intern Program The Pennsylvania State University FutureGen And the importance of project management Outline * FutureGen technologies * ...

  16. Living a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Living a Sustainable Future Living a Sustainable Future August 1, 2013 Biomass to fuel project The Laboratory's biomass team is working to solve the energy crisis through...

  17. OSCARS-Future-Tech

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    OSCARS and Future Tech Engineering Services The Network OSCARS How It Works Who's Using OSCARS? OSCARS and Future Tech OSCARS Standard and Open Grid Forum OSCARS Developers...

  18. Active stewardship: sustainable future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Active stewardship: sustainable future Active stewardship: sustainable future Energy sustainability is a daunting task: How do we develop top-notch innovations with some of the ...

  19. Create a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Create a Sustainable Future Image of river edge with text overlay of 'How does LANL ... We fund projects that reduce environmental effects. Create a Sustainable Future Home ...

  20. Living a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Living a Sustainable Future Living a Sustainable Future August 1, 2013 Biomass to fuel project The Laboratory's biomass team is working to solve the energy crisis through ...

  1. The house of the future

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-09-01

    Learn what it will take to create tomorrow's net-zero energy home as scientists reveal the secrets of cool roofs, smart windows, and computer-driven energy control systems. The net-zero energy home: Scientists are working to make tomorrow's homes more than just energy efficient -- they want them to be zero energy. Iain Walker, a scientist in the Lab's Energy Performance of Buildings Group, will discuss what it takes to develop net-zero energy houses that generate as much energy as they use through highly aggressive energy efficiency and on-site renewable energy generation. Talking back to the grid: Imagine programming your house to use less energy if the electricity grid is full or price are high. Mary Ann Piette, deputy director of Berkeley Lab's building technology department and director of the Lab's Demand Response Research Center, will discuss how new technologies are enabling buildings to listen to the grid and automatically change their thermostat settings or lighting loads, among other demands, in response to fluctuating electricity prices. The networked (and energy efficient) house: In the future, your home's lights, climate control devices, computers, windows, and appliances could be controlled via a sophisticated digital network. If it's plugged in, it'll be connected. Bruce Nordman, an energy scientist in Berkeley Lab's Energy End-Use Forecasting group, will discuss how he and other scientists are working to ensure these networks help homeowners save energy.

  2. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  3. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  4. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  5. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  6. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  7. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  8. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  9. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  10. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  11. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  13. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  14. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  15. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  16. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  17. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  19. World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ): Global Activity Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2016-01-01

    The World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is a comprehensive, mid?term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by EIA. WEPS projects energy supply, demand, and prices by country or region, given assumptions about the state of various economies, international energy markets, and energy policies. The Global Activity Module (GLAM) provides projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of WEPS . GLAM’s baseline economic projection contains the economic assumptions used in WEPS to help determine energy demand and supply. GLAM can also provide WEPS with alternative economic assumptions representing a range of uncertainty about economic growth. The resulting economic impacts of such assumptions are inputs to the remaining supply and demand modules of WEPS .

  20. Common Geometry Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-01-01

    The Common Geometry Module (CGM) is a code library which provides geometry functionality used for mesh generation and other applications. This functionality includes that commonly found in solid modeling engines, like geometry creation, query and modification; CGM also includes capabilities not commonly found in solid modeling engines, like geometry decomposition tools and support for shared material interfaces. CGM is built upon the ACIS solid modeling engine, but also includes geometry capability developed beside and onmore » top of ACIS. CGM can be used as-is to provide geometry functionality for codes needing this capability. However, CGM can also be extended using derived classes in C++, allowing the geometric model to serve as the basis for other applications, for example mesh generation. CGM is supported on Sun Solaris, SGI, HP, IBM, DEC, Linux and Windows NT platforms. CGM also indudes support for loading ACIS models on parallel computers, using MPI-based communication. Future plans for CGM are to port it to different solid modeling engines, including Pro/Engineer or SolidWorks. CGM is being released into the public domain under an LGPL license; the ACIS-based engine is available to ACIS licensees on request.« less

  1. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  2. Detailed Course Module Description

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document lists the course modules for building science courses offered at Cornell's Collaborator Sustainable Buildingi Practice course.

  3. Module 8- Reporting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This module illustrates and defines the different cost performance reports (CPR) available for reporting earned value information.

  4. Modulating lignin in plants

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Apuya, Nestor; Bobzin, Steven Craig; Okamuro, Jack; Zhang, Ke

    2013-01-29

    Materials and methods for modulating (e.g., increasing or decreasing) lignin content in plants are disclosed. For example, nucleic acids encoding lignin-modulating polypeptides are disclosed as well as methods for using such nucleic acids to generate transgenic plants having a modulated lignin content.

  5. Integrating Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  6. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  8. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  9. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  10. Perspectives on the pathways for cadmium telluride photovoltaic module manufacturers to address expected increases in the price for tellurium

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This study investigates the impacts of potential tellurium (Te) supply constraints on future cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) module deployment and finds: (1) CdTe PV modules can remain...

  11. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-09-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  12. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-11-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  13. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2013-04-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  14. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-10-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

  15. Keck Futures Initiative

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Complex Systems Conference, November 12 - 15, 2008 Challa Kumar(second from left) was invited to attend 1st National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Complex Systems Conference

  16. Create a Sustainable Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Create a Sustainable Future Image of river edge with text overlay of 'How does LANL accomplish future stewardship of the natural and historical resources?' We sample to detect any...

  17. Planning for the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lesh, Pamela

    2009-06-15

    Four changes to integrated resource planning could significantly improve alignment between future utility spending and the forces and changes that are upending past preconceptions of how to predict future load. (author)

  18. Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solution for Automotive Thermoelectric Modules Application Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules with Scalable Thermo- and Electro-Mechanical Interfaces

  19. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  20. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  1. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  2. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  3. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  6. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  7. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  8. Cavity enhanced terahertz modulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Born, N.; Scheller, M.; Moloney, J. V.; Koch, M.

    2014-03-10

    We present a versatile concept for all optical terahertz (THz) amplitude modulators based on a Fabry-Prot semiconductor cavity design. Employing the high reflectivity of two parallel meta-surfaces allows for trapping selected THz photons within the cavity and thus only a weak optical modulation of the semiconductor absorbance is required to significantly damp the field within the cavity. The optical switching yields to modulation depths of more than 90% with insertion efficiencies of 80%.

  9. Module 3- Project Scheduling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This module differentiates between planning and scheduling and outlines basic scheduling concepts, the logic relationships and critical path, and different schedule formats.

  10. Bracket for photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ciasulli, John; Jones, Jason

    2014-06-24

    Brackets for photovoltaic ("PV") modules are described. In one embodiment, a saddle bracket has a mounting surface to support one or more PV modules over a tube, a gusset coupled to the mounting surface, and a mounting feature coupled to the gusset to couple to the tube. The gusset can have a first leg and a second leg extending at an angle relative to the mounting surface. Saddle brackets can be coupled to a torque tube at predetermined locations. PV modules can be coupled to the saddle brackets. The mounting feature can be coupled to the first gusset and configured to stand the one or more PV modules off the tube.

  11. Historical impacts and future trends in industrial cogeneration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bluestein, J.; Lihn, M.

    1999-07-01

    Cogeneration, also known as combined heat and power (CHP), is the combined sequential generation of electricity and thermal or electric energy. The technology has been known essentially since the first commercial generation of electricity as a high efficiency technology option. After a period of decline, its use increased significantly during the 1980s and it is receiving renewed interest lately as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing emissions of air pollutants including carbon emissions. New and developing technology options have added to this potential. Forecasts of future growth and efforts to stimulate cogeneration need to take into account the history of the technology, the factors that have driven it in the past, and factors which could stimulate or retard future growth. This paper reviews and analyzes these factors and looks toward the future potential for cogeneration.

  12. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  13. Silicon photonic heater-modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zortman, William A.; Trotter, Douglas Chandler; Watts, Michael R.

    2015-07-14

    Photonic modulators, methods of forming photonic modulators and methods of modulating an input optical signal are provided. A photonic modulator includes a disk resonator having a central axis extending along a thickness direction of the disk resonator. The disk resonator includes a modulator portion and a heater portion. The modulator portion extends in an arc around the central axis. A PN junction of the modulator portion is substantially normal to the central axis.

  14. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  15. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  16. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  17. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  18. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  19. Materials for the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Materials for the Future Materials for the Future The Lab's four Science Pillars harness our scientific capabilities for national security solutions. Contacts Pillar Champion Mary Hockaday Email Pillar Contact Toni Taylor Email Pillar Contact David Teter Email Materials for the Future Science Overview At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we anticipate the advent of a new era in materials science, when we will transition from observing and exploiting the properties of materials to a science-based

  20. Oil-futures markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prast, W.G.; Lax, H.L.

    1983-01-01

    This book on oil futures trading takes a look at a market and its various hedging strategies. Growing interest in trading of commodity futures has spread to petroleum, including crude oil, and key refined products such as gasoline and heating oil. This book describes how the international petroleum trade is structured, examines the working of oil futures markets in the United States and the United Kingdom, and assesses the possible courses of further developments.

  1. Development of Fuel Shuffling Module for PHISICS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allan Mabe; Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Aaron Epiney; Michael Lineberry

    2013-06-01

    PHISICS (Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for the INL Code System) [4] code toolkit has been in development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This package is intended to provide a modern analysis tool for reactor physics investigation. It is designed with the mindset to maximize accuracy for a given availability of computational resources and to give state of the art tools to the modern nuclear engineer. This is obtained by implementing several different algorithms and meshing approaches among which the user will be able to choose, in order to optimize his computational resources and accuracy needs. The software is completely modular in order to simplify the independent development of modules by different teams and future maintenance. The package is coupled with the thermo-hydraulic code RELAP5-3D [3]. In the following the structure of the different PHISICS modules is briefly recalled, focusing on the new shuffling module (SHUFFLE), object of this paper.

  2. Finishing in the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Schedule (pdf) sponsor logos The Sequencing, Finishing and Analysis in the Future meeting is sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Department of Energy...

  3. Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future City Competition The New Mexico Regional Competition is an unique opportunity for middle school children to combine skills in engineering, environmental science, and art to...

  4. My Amazing Future 2012

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2013-05-28

    Idaho National Laboratory's My Amazing Future program gives 8th grade women the opportunity to experience careers in science and engineering.

  5. My Amazing Future 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-01-01

    Idaho National Laboratory's My Amazing Future program gives 8th grade women the opportunity to experience careers in science and engineering.

  6. Energy for our Future

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ... gallons of diesel per year "Stronger Together for the Next 100 Years" Looking into The Future... (Traditional Athabascan Solar Array?) "Stronger Together for the Next 100 Years"

  7. Transportation Energy Futures Snapshot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This snapshot is a summary of the EERE reports that provide a detailed analysis of opportunities and challenges along the path to a more sustainable transportation energy future.

  8. BACnet's Future Directions

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and building controllers BACnet International has developed and deployed a BACnet ... technologies. Future Directions Smart Grid Cyber- Security Moving Forward Integration

  9. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  10. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  11. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  12. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  13. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  14. Logs Perl Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-04-04

    A perl module designed to read and parse the voluminous set of event or accounting log files produced by a Portable Batch System (PBS) server. This module can filter on date-time and/or record type. The data can be returned in a variety of formats.

  15. Module Safety Issues (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wohlgemuth, J.

    2012-02-01

    Description of how to make PV modules so that they are less likely to turn into safety hazards. Making modules inherently safer with minimum additional cost is the preferred approach for PV. Safety starts with module design to ensure redundancy within the electrical circuitry to minimize open circuits and proper mounting instructions to prevent installation related ground faults. Module manufacturers must control the raw materials and processes to ensure that that every module is built like those qualified through the safety tests. This is the reason behind the QA task force effort to develop a 'Guideline for PV Module Manufacturing QA'. Periodic accelerated stress testing of production products is critical to validate the safety of the product. Combining safer PV modules with better systems designs is the ultimate goal. This should be especially true for PV arrays on buildings. Use of lower voltage dc circuits - AC modules, DC-DC converters. Use of arc detectors and interrupters to detect arcs and open the circuits to extinguish the arcs.

  16. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, Jurgen

    1994-01-01

    A membrane module assembly adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation.

  17. Membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaschemekat, J.

    1994-03-15

    A membrane module assembly is described which is adapted to provide a flow path for the incoming feed stream that forces it into prolonged heat-exchanging contact with a heating or cooling mechanism. Membrane separation processes employing the module assembly are also disclosed. The assembly is particularly useful for gas separation or pervaporation. 2 figures.

  18. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  19. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M.; Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in an Union of Concerned Scientists webinar on June 12, 2012.

  2. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. This presentation was presented in a Wind Powering America webinar on August 15, 2012 and is now available through the Wind Powering America website.

  3. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a webinar given by the California Energy Commission.

  4. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a Power Systems Engineering Research Center webinar on September 4, 2012.

  5. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M.

    2012-10-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It is being presented at the Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group Fall Technical Workshop on October 24, 2012.

  6. The Hanford Story: Future

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Future Chapter of the Hanford Story illustrates the potential and possibilities offered by a post-cleanup Hanford. From land use plans and preservation at Hanford to economic development and tourism opportunities, the Future chapter touches on a variety of local economic, cultural and environmental perspectives.

  7. Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Encapsulation of High Temperature Thermoelectric Modules Presents concept for hermetic encapsulation of TE modules ...

  8. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wares, Brian S.

    2014-09-02

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame. A plurality of individual male alignment features and a plurality of individual female alignment features are included on each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by multiple individual male alignment features on a first module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules fitting into and being surrounded by corresponding individual female alignment features on a second module of the adjacent photovoltaic modules. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  9. Transportation Sector Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model.

  10. Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector (Patent) |...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector Title: Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector A photovoltaic (PV) module assembly including a PV module, a deflector, ...

  11. Water heater control module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hammerstrom, Donald J

    2013-11-26

    An advanced electric water heater control system that interfaces with a high temperature cut-off thermostat and an upper regulating thermostat. The system includes a control module that is electrically connected to the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module includes a switch to open or close the high-temperature cut-off thermostat and the upper regulating thermostat. The control module further includes circuitry configured to control said switch in response to a signal selected from the group of an autonomous signal, a communicated signal, and combinations thereof.

  12. Optical modulator including grapene

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Liu, Ming; Yin, Xiaobo; Zhang, Xiang

    2016-06-07

    The present invention provides for a one or more layer graphene optical modulator. In a first exemplary embodiment the optical modulator includes an optical waveguide, a nanoscale oxide spacer adjacent to a working region of the waveguide, and a monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to the spacer. In a second exemplary embodiment, the optical modulator includes at least one pair of active media, where the pair includes an oxide spacer, a first monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a first side of the spacer, and a second monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a second side of the spacer, and at least one optical waveguide adjacent to the pair.

  13. Sonication standard laboratory module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beugelsdijk, Tony; Hollen, Robert M.; Erkkila, Tracy H.; Bronisz, Lawrence E.; Roybal, Jeffrey E.; Clark, Michael Leon

    1999-01-01

    A standard laboratory module for automatically producing a solution of cominants from a soil sample. A sonication tip agitates a solution containing the soil sample in a beaker while a stepper motor rotates the sample. An aspirator tube, connected to a vacuum, draws the upper layer of solution from the beaker through a filter and into another beaker. This beaker can thereafter be removed for analysis of the solution. The standard laboratory module encloses an embedded controller providing process control, status feedback information and maintenance procedures for the equipment and operations within the standard laboratory module.

  14. NERSC Python Modules (Edison Only)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC Python Modules (Edison Only) NERSC Python Modules (Edison Only) Python Interpreter Modules To use the NERSC-built installation on Edison, type: module load python This loads the default version of the following useful core modules: python_base: Python 2.7.x module. numpy: Defines the numerical array and matrix type and basic operations on them. scipy: Uses numpy to do advanced math, signal processing, optimization, statistics and much more. matplotlib: Plotting/visualization library.

  15. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  16. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeMeo, E.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at Wind Powering America States Summit. The Summit, which follows the American Wind Energy Association's (AWEA's) annual WINDPOWER Conference and Exhibition, provides state Wind Working Groups, state energy officials, U.S. Energy Department and national laboratory representatives, and professional and institutional partners an opportunity to review successes, opportunities, and challenges for wind energy and plan future collaboration.

  17. Module bay with directed flow

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Torczynski, John R.

    2001-02-27

    A module bay requires less cleanroom airflow. A shaped gas inlet passage can allow cleanroom air into the module bay with flow velocity preferentially directed toward contaminant rich portions of a processing module in the module bay. Preferential gas flow direction can more efficiently purge contaminants from appropriate portions of the module bay, allowing a reduced cleanroom air flow rate for contaminant removal. A shelf extending from an air inlet slit in one wall of a module bay can direct air flowing therethrough toward contaminant-rich portions of the module bay, such as a junction between a lid and base of a processing module.

  18. NEMS International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA NEMS International Energy Module Model Documentation Report vii Mr. G. Daniel Butler U.S. Department of Energy EI-812 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Tel:...

  19. International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA NEMS International Energy Module Model Documentation Report vii Mr. G. Daniel Butler U.S. Department of Energy EI-812 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Tel:...

  20. GREET Pretreatment Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adom, Felix K.; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Han, Jeongwoo

    2014-09-01

    A wide range of biofuels and biochemicals can be produced from biomass via different pretreatment technologies that yield sugars. This report documents the material and energy flows that occur when fermentable sugars from four lignocellulosic feedstocks (corn stover, miscanthus, switchgrass, and poplar) are produced via dilute acid pretreatment and ammonia fiber expansion. These flows are documented for inclusion in the pretreatment module of the Greenhouses Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. Process simulations of each pretreatment technology were developed in Aspen Plus. Material and energy consumption data from Aspen Plus were then compiled in the GREET pretreatment module. The module estimates the cradle-to-gate fossil energy consumption (FEC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with producing fermentable sugars. This report documents the data and methodology used to develop this module and the cradle-to-gate FEC and GHG emissions that result from producing fermentable sugars.

  1. International Energy Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    self-contained units which are linked by an integrating mechanism. The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) computes world oil prices, provides a set of crude oil and refined...

  2. Digital optical conversion module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kotter, Dale K.; Rankin, Richard A.

    1991-02-26

    A digital optical conversion module used to convert an analog signal to a computer compatible digital signal including a voltage-to-frequency converter, frequency offset response circuitry, and an electrical-to-optical converter. Also used in conjunction with the digital optical conversion module is an optical link and an interface at the computer for converting the optical signal back to an electrical signal. Suitable for use in hostile environments having high levels of electromagnetic interference, the conversion module retains high resolution of the analog signal while eliminating the potential for errors due to noise and interference. The module can be used to link analog output scientific equipment such as an electrometer used with a mass spectrometer to a computer.

  3. Digital optical conversion module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kotter, D.K.; Rankin, R.A.

    1988-07-19

    A digital optical conversion module used to convert an analog signal to a computer compatible digital signal including a voltage-to-frequency converter, frequency offset response circuitry, and an electrical-to-optical converter. Also used in conjunction with the digital optical conversion module is an optical link and an interface at the computer for converting the optical signal back to an electrical signal. Suitable for use in hostile environments having high levels of electromagnetic interference, the conversion module retains high resolution of the analog signal while eliminating the potential for errors due to noise and interference. The module can be used to link analog output scientific equipment such as an electrometer used with a mass spectrometer to a computer. 2 figs.

  4. Transportation Energy Futures Study

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Transportation accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum consumption and 33% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) study examines underexplored oil-savings and...

  5. Future Physics | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future Physics March 5, 2009 In late January, we held a meeting of our Physics Advisory Committee, PAC34 to be precise. We had two primary goals for the PAC, one related to the ...

  6. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hand, M. M.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented to the 2012 Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners, during their June, 2012, meeting. The Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners is a regional association within the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC).

  7. Future of Transportation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Transportation In the coming decades, transportation in the U.S. is expected to change radically in response to environmental constraints, fluctuating oil availability and economic factors. Future Decision-Makers The transportation systems that emerge in the 21 st century will be defined largely by the choices, skills and imaginations of today's youth. Future Workforce As scientists and engineers, they will develop new vehicle and fuel technologies. As citizens, they will make decisions

  8. Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future City Competition The New Mexico Regional Competition is an unique opportunity for middle school children to combine skills in engineering, environmental science, and art to create a vision for the future. Exercising your imagination and sharing your ideas are not only fun but essential for ensuring sustainable growth for our communities. Students work as a team with an educator and engineer mentor to plan cities using SimCity(tm) software: research and write solutions to an engineering

  9. Energy for the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy for the future Energy for the Future Harnessing the energy of the sun and stars to meet the Earth's energy needs has been a scientific and engineering challenge for decades. A self-sustaining fusion burn has been achieved for brief periods under experimental conditions, but the amount of energy that went into creating it was greater than the amount of energy it generated. What's needed next, for fusion energy to supply a continuous stream of electricity, is energy gain. The National

  10. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mrig, L.

    1990-01-01

    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  11. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  12. Introduction to the Buildings Sector Module of SEDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeForest, Nicholas; Bonnet, Florence; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris

    2010-12-31

    SEDS is a stochastic engineering-economics model that forecasts economy-wide energy consumption in the U.S. to 2050. It is the product of multi-laboratory collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Lumina Decision Systems. Among national energy models, SEDS is unique, as it is the only model written to explicitly incorporate uncertainty in its inputs and outputs. The primary purpose of SEDS is to estimate the impact of various US Department of Energy (DOE)R&D and policy programs on the performance and subsequent adoption rates of technologies relating to every energy consuming sector of the economy (shown below). It has previously been used to assist DOE in complying with the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA). The focus of LBNL research has been exclusively on develop the buildings model (SBEAM), which is capable of running as a stand-alone forecasting model, or as a part of SEDS as a whole. The full version of SEDS, containing all sectors and interaction is also called the 'integrated' version and is managed by NREL. Forecasts from SEDS are often compared to those coming from National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The intention of this document is to present new users and developers with a general description of the purpose, functionality and structure of the buildings module within the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS). The Buildings module, which is capable of running as a standalone model, is also called the Stochastic Buildings Energy and Adoption Model (SBEAM). This document will focus exclusively on SBEAM and its interaction with other major sector modules present within SEDS. The methodologies and major assumptions employed in SBEAM will also be discussed. The organization of this report will parallel the organization of the model itself, being divided into major submodules

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  14. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  15. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  16. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  17. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  18. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  19. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  20. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  1. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    .g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  2. The motor gasoline industry: Past, present, and future. [Contains glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    Motor gasoline constitutes the largest single component of US demand for petroleum products and is the Nation's most widely used transportation fuel. Because of its importance as a transportation fuel, motor gasoline has been the focus of several regulatory and tax policy initiatives in recent years. Much of the US refining capacity is specifically geared toward maximizing motor gasoline production, and future investments by the petroleum industry in refining infrastructure are likely to be made largely to produce larger volumes of clean motor gasoline. This report addresses major events and developments that have had an impact on motor gasoline supply, distribution, prices, and demand. The report provides historical perspective as well as analyses of important events from the 1970's and 1980's. Long-term forecasts are provided for the period from 1990 to 2010 in an effort to present and analyze possible future motor gasoline trends. Other forecasts examine the near-term impact of the invasion of Kuwait. 18 figs., 10 tabs.

  3. Final Design of the SLAC P2 Marx Klystron Modulator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kemp, M.A.; Benwell, A.; Burkhart, C.; Larsen, R.; MacNair, D.; Nguyen, M.; Olsen, J.; /SLAC

    2011-11-08

    The SLAC P2 Marx has been under development for two years, and follows on the P1 Marx as an alternative to the baseline klystron modulator for the International Linear Collider. The P2 Marx utilizes a redundant architecture, air-insulation, a control system with abundant diagnostic access, and a novel nested droop correction scheme. This paper is an overview of the design of this modulator. There are several points of emphasis for the P2 Marx design. First, the modulator must be compatible with the ILC two-tunnel design. In this scheme, the modulator and klystron are located within a service tunnel with limited access and available footprint for a modulator. Access to the modulator is only practical from one side. Second, the modulator must have high availability. Robust components are not sufficient alone to achieve availability much higher than 99%. Therefore, redundant architectures are necessary. Third, the modulator must be relatively low cost. Because of the large number of stations in the ILC, the investment needed for the modulator components is significant. High-volume construction techniques which take advantage of an economy of scale must be utilized. Fourth, the modulator must be simple and efficient to maintain. If a modulator does become inoperable, the MTTR must be small. Fifth, even though the present application for the modulator is for the ILC, future accelerators can also take advantage of this development effort. The hardware, software, and concepts developed in this project should be designed such that further development time necessary for other applications is minimal.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  5. Renewable Fuels Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    and are likely to occur in future years. Governments and businesses have adopted strategies to lessen the amount of waste generated without reducing economic output. The...

  6. License Structure for Multi-Module Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas Hicks

    2010-08-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project is intended to be the prototype for multi-module commercial high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) for process heat and/or electricity generation. Part of the objectives of the project are to establish the conditions that would govern or enhance the design, licensing, construction and operation of numerous, modular nuclear plants, particularly suited for industrial applications or that could reduce the risk of such projects. A determination is desired regarding whether a multi-module reactor plant can be licensed with a single Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review, hearing, and safety evaluation report. If it is determined that a multi-modular reactor plant can be licensed under a single review/hearing process, the structure and the duration of the license for each module will also need to be determined. The purpose of this paper is to describe for the NRC the NGNP position on these two issues and obtain either NRC general concurrence or comments on the approach to these issues. While the current NGNP planning provides for only a single reactor module, the project is intended to provide the basis and establish a licensing framework that can be used by future commercial HTGRs and other reactor designs, including a variety of small modular reactor technologies, with configurations reflecting design standardization of multi-module plants. Therefore, it is important to identify a path for addressing these modular reactor plant issues so that the resolution can be factored into the NGNP Project planning. The NGNP position is that a single combined license (COL) application can be submitted for a multi-modular reactor facility, the COL application can undergo a single NRC review/hearing process, and each module should be issued a separate license.

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at the 2012 RE AMP Annual Meeting. RE-AMP is an active network of 144 nonprofits and foundations across eight Midwestern states working on climate change and energy policy with the goal of reducing global warming pollution economy-wide 80% by 2050.

  8. Power module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Campbell, Jeremy B.; Newson, Steve

    2011-11-15

    A power module assembly of the type suitable for deployment in a vehicular power inverter, wherein the power inverter has a grounded chassis, is provided. The power module assembly comprises a conductive base layer electrically coupled to the chassis, an insulating layer disposed on the conductive base layer, a first conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, a second conductive node disposed on the insulating layer, wherein the first and second conductive nodes are electrically isolated from each other. The power module assembly also comprises a first capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the first conductive node, and further comprises a second capacitor having a first electrode electrically connected to the conductive base layer, and a second electrode electrically connected to the second conductive node.

  9. Printed Module Interconnects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stockert, Talysa R.; Fields, Jeremy D.; Pach, Gregory F.; Mauger, Scott A.; van Hest, Maikel F. A. M.

    2015-06-14

    Monolithic interconnects in photovoltaic modules connect adjacent cells in series, and are typically formed sequentially involving multiple deposition and scribing steps. Interconnect widths of 500 um every 10 mm result in 5% dead area, which does not contribute to power generation in an interconnected solar panel. This work expands on previous work that introduced an alternative interconnection method capable of producing interconnect widths less than 100 um. The interconnect is added to the module in a single step after deposition of the photovoltaic stack, eliminating the need for scribe alignment. This alternative method can be used for all types of thin film photovoltaic modules. Voltage addition with copper-indium-gallium-diselenide (CIGS) solar cells using a 2-scribe printed interconnect approach is demonstrated. Additionally, interconnect widths of 250 um are shown.

  10. Flexible programmable logic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robertson, Perry J.; Hutchinson, Robert L.; Pierson, Lyndon G.

    2001-01-01

    The circuit module of this invention is a VME board containing a plurality of programmable logic devices (PLDs), a controlled impedance clock tree, and interconnecting buses. The PLDs are arranged to permit systolic processing of a problem by offering wide data buses and a plurality of processing nodes. The board contains a clock reference and clock distribution tree that can drive each of the PLDs with two critically timed clock references. External clock references can be used to drive additional circuit modules all operating from the same synchronous clock reference.

  11. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  12. Photovoltaic module and interlocked stack of photovoltaic modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wares, Brian S.

    2012-09-04

    One embodiment relates to an arrangement of photovoltaic modules configured for transportation. The arrangement includes a plurality of photovoltaic modules, each photovoltaic module including a frame having at least a top member and a bottom member. A plurality of alignment features are included on the top member of each frame, and a plurality of alignment features are included on the bottom member of each frame. Adjacent photovoltaic modules are interlocked by the alignment features on the top member of a lower module fitting together with the alignment features on the bottom member of an upper module. Other embodiments, features and aspects are also disclosed.

  13. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  14. Energy futures-2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-01-01

    This book covers the proceedings of the Symposium on Energy Futures II. Topics covered include: The National Energy Strategy; The Gas and petroleum industry; energy use in the paper industry; solar energy technology; hydroelectric power; biomass/waste utilization; engine emissions testing laboratories; integrated coal gassification-combined-cycle power plants.

  15. Portsmouth Future Use

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Economic development professionals in the area are working to evaluate the site’s assets and determine the future industries that would be suitable at Portsmouth Site. These efforts will also provide DOE with necessary information about the community’s specific end state needs, which will be critical in making decisions regarding the D&D project.

  16. Role of Polycrystalline Thin-Film PV Technologies in Competitive PV Module Markets: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    von Roedern, B.; Ullal, H. S.

    2008-05-01

    This paper discusses the developments in thin-film PV technologies and provides an outlook on future commercial module efficiencies achievable based on today's knowledge about champion cell performance.

  17. Water for future Mars astronauts?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water for future Mars astronauts? Water for future Mars astronauts? Within its first three months on Mars, NASA's Curiosity Rover saw a surprising diversity of soils and sediments ...

  18. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  19. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  20. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  1. Drupal Contributed Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-10-01

    These Drupal Modules extend the functionality of Drupal by including specific styles for dates and tabs, publishing options for scheduled and immediate publication of content modes, field visibility in content forms, keyword block filters (taxonomy based), adding content nodes to a specified queue for display in views, and status display of workflow settings.

  2. Formed photovoltaic module busbars

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, Douglas; Daroczi, Shan; Phu, Thomas

    2015-11-10

    A cell connection piece for a photovoltaic module is disclosed herein. The cell connection piece includes an interconnect bus, a plurality of bus tabs unitarily formed with the interconnect bus, and a terminal bus coupled with the interconnect bus. The plurality of bus tabs extend from the interconnect bus. The terminal bus includes a non-linear portion.

  3. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  4. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  5. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  7. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  10. Method of monolithic module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gee, James M.; Garrett, Stephen E.; Morgan, William P.; Worobey, Walter

    1999-01-01

    Methods for "monolithic module assembly" which translate many of the advantages of monolithic module construction of thin-film PV modules to wafered c-Si PV modules. Methods employ using back-contact solar cells positioned atop electrically conductive circuit elements affixed to a planar support so that a circuit capable of generating electric power is created. The modules are encapsulated using encapsulant materials such as EVA which are commonly used in photovoltaic module manufacture. The methods of the invention allow multiple cells to be electrically connected in a single encapsulation step rather than by sequential soldering which characterizes the currently used commercial practices.

  11. Growing America's Energy Future

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to

  12. Growing the Future Bioeconomy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Future Bioeconomy JOEL VELASCO July 2014 2 Copyright © 2012 Amyris, Inc. All rights reserved. This presentation and oral statements accompanying this presentation contain forward-looking statements, and any statements other than statements of historical facts could be deemed to be forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, among other things, sizes of markets that may be addressed by Amyris's current and potential products, Amyris's expected product pipeline,

  13. RHIC progress and future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Montag,C.

    2009-05-04

    The talk reviews RHIC performance, including unprecedented manipulations of polarized beams and recent low energy operations. Achievements and limiting factors of RHIC operation are discussed, such as intrabeam scattering, electron cloud, beam-beam effects, magnet vibrations, and the efficiency of novel countermeasures such as bunched beam stochastic cooling, beam scrubbing and chamber coatings. Future upgrade plans and the pertinent R&D program will also be presented.

  14. Students are our future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Personal message Community Connections: Your link to news and opportunities from Los Alamos National Laboratory Latest Issue: September 1, 2016 all issues All Issues » submit Students are our future A personal message from Nan Sauer, Associate Director for Chemistry, Life and Earth Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory June 1, 2015 Nan Sauer, Associate Director for Chemistry, Life and Earth Sciences Nan Sauer, Associate Director for Chemistry, Life and Earth Sciences Contacts Community

  15. Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Thermoelectrics Partnership: Automotive Thermoelectric Modules with Scalable Thermo- and Electro-Mechanical Interfaces Novel Nanostructured Interface Solution for Automotive ...

  16. Detailed Course Module Description | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Detailed Course Module Description Detailed Course Module Description This document lists the course modules for building science courses offered at Cornell's Collaborator...

  17. Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector (Patent) |...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Patent: Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Photovoltaic module with removable wind deflector A photovoltaic (PV) module ...

  18. Module Solar AG | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Module Solar AG Jump to: navigation, search Name: Module Solar AG Place: Baar, Switzerland Product: A Swiss PV module and materials supplier and developer Coordinates: 40.808083,...

  19. Module isolation devices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carolan, Michael Francis; Cooke, John Albert; Buzinski, Michael David

    2010-04-27

    A gas flow isolation device includes a gas flow isolation valve movable from an opened condition to a closed condition. The module isolation valve in one embodiment includes a rupture disk in flow communication with a flow of gas when the module isolation valve is in an opened condition. The rupture disk ruptures when a predetermined pressure differential occurs across it causing the isolation valve to close. In one embodiment the valve is mechanically linked to the rupture disk to maintain the valve in an opened condition when the rupture disk is intact, and which permits the valve to move into a closed condition when the rupture disk ruptures. In another embodiment a crushable member maintains the valve in an open condition, and the flow of gas passed the valve upon rupturing of the rupture disk compresses the crushable member to close the isolation valve.

  20. 2015 PV Module Reliability Workshop

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory hosts an annual Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop so that solar technology experts can share information leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Improvements to module reliability reduce the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology—both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  1. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  2. Tandem resonator reflectance modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritz, Ian J. (Albuquerque, NM); Wendt, Joel R. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1994-01-01

    A wide band optical modulator is grown on a substrate as tandem Fabry-Perot resonators including three mirrors spaced by two cavities. The absorption of one cavity is changed relative to the absorption of the other cavity by an applied electric field, to cause a change in total reflected light, as light reflecting from the outer mirrors is in phase and light reflecting from the inner mirror is out of phase with light from the outer mirrors.

  3. Tandem resonator reflectance modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritz, I.J.; Wendt, J.R.

    1994-09-06

    A wide band optical modulator is grown on a substrate as tandem Fabry-Perot resonators including three mirrors spaced by two cavities. The absorption of one cavity is changed relative to the absorption of the other cavity by an applied electric field, to cause a change in total reflected light, as light reflecting from the outer mirrors is in phase and light reflecting from the inner mirror is out of phase with light from the outer mirrors. 8 figs.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  5. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  6. Bioenergy: America's Energy Future

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

    2014-08-12

    Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

  7. Future water Cherenkov detectors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bergevin, Marc

    2015-05-15

    In these proceedings a review of the current proposed large-scale Warer Cherenkov experiments is given. An argument is made that future water Cherenkov detectors would benefit in the investment in neutron detection technology. A brief overview will be given of proposed water Cherenkov experiments such as HYPER-K and MEMPHYS and other R and D experiments to demonstrate neutron capture in water Cherenkov detectors. Finally, innovation developed in the context of the now defunct LBNE Water R and D option to improve Water Cherenkov technology will be described.

  8. Bioenergy: America's Energy Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

    2014-07-31

    Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

  9. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  11. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  13. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  16. Future Communications Needs | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Communications Needs Future Communications Needs Chart of Oncor Electric Delivery's Future Communications Needs PDF icon Future Communications Needs More Documents & ...

  17. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  18. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  20. Angola: a great future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-11-01

    The companies represented in Angola and their concessions by area are tabulated, including offshore leases. The government of this only recently independent country puts great emphasis on petroleum development and welcomes foreign companies. The major portion of the production comes from the fields in the Cabinda area. In the future, the reserves in the Congo basin will become more important. Exploration activity is intense and concentrated on the near offshore area of the country. The gas reserves are still not entirely known; present production serves only the needs of petroleum production, including a gas injection project in the Cabinda area and the production of LPG. A map of the offshore concession blocks also is shown.

  1. The future of methane

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howell, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    Natural gas, mainly methane, produces lower CO{sub 2}, CO, NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate emissions than either oil or coal; thus further substitutions of methane for these fuels could help mitigate air pollution. Methane is, however, a potent greenhouse gas and the domestication of ruminants, cultivation of rice, mining of coal, drilling for oil, and transportation of natural gas have all contributed to a doubling of the amount of atmospheric methane since 1800. Today nearly 300,000 wells yearly produce ca. 21 trillion cubic feet of methane. Known reserves suggest about a 10 year supply at the above rates of recovery; and the potential for undiscovered resources is obscured by uncertainty involving price, new technologies, and environmental restrictions steming from the need to drill an enormous number of wells, many in ecologically sensitive areas. Until all these aspects of methane are better understood, its future role in the world`s energy mix will remain uncertain. The atomic simplicity of methane, composed of one carbon and four hydrogen atoms, may mask the complexity and importance of this, the most basic of organic molecules. Within the Earth, methane is produced through thermochemical alteration of organic materials, and by biochemical reactions mediated by metabolic processes of archaebacteria; some methane may even be primordial, a residue of planetary accretion. Methane also occurs in smaller volumes in landfills, rice paddies, termite complexes, ruminants, and even many humans. As an energy source, its full energy potential is controversial. Methane is touted by some as a viable bridge to future energy systems, fueled by the sun and uranium and carried by electricity and hydrogen.

  2. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Wigley, Tom M.

    2005-12-01

    The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.

  3. TASMANIAN Sparse Grids Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-09-20

    Sparse Grids are the family of methods of choice for multidimensional integration and interpolation in low to moderate number of dimensions. The method is to select extend a one dimensional set of abscissas, weights and basis functions by taking a subset of all possible tensor products. The module provides the ability to create global and local approximations based on polynomials and wavelets. The software has three components, a library, a wrapper for the library thatmore » provides a command line interface via text files ad a MATLAB interface via the command line tool.« less

  4. TASMANIAN Sparse Grids Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    and Drayton Munster, Miroslav Stoyanov

    2013-09-20

    Sparse Grids are the family of methods of choice for multidimensional integration and interpolation in low to moderate number of dimensions. The method is to select extend a one dimensional set of abscissas, weights and basis functions by taking a subset of all possible tensor products. The module provides the ability to create global and local approximations based on polynomials and wavelets. The software has three components, a library, a wrapper for the library that provides a command line interface via text files ad a MATLAB interface via the command line tool.

  5. Processing module operating methods, processing modules, and communications systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McCown, Steven Harvey; Derr, Kurt W.; Moore, Troy

    2014-09-09

    A processing module operating method includes using a processing module physically connected to a wireless communications device, requesting that the wireless communications device retrieve encrypted code from a web site and receiving the encrypted code from the wireless communications device. The wireless communications device is unable to decrypt the encrypted code. The method further includes using the processing module, decrypting the encrypted code, executing the decrypted code, and preventing the wireless communications device from accessing the decrypted code. Another processing module operating method includes using a processing module physically connected to a host device, executing an application within the processing module, allowing the application to exchange user interaction data communicated using a user interface of the host device with the host device, and allowing the application to use the host device as a communications device for exchanging information with a remote device distinct from the host device.

  6. Future Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Use Future Use Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their future use vision. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their future use vision. Facility or infrastructure reuse could avoid costs associated with demolition and disposal. PPPO works with GDP communities as they identify their

  7. Phase modulation in RF tag

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carrender, Curtis Lee; Gilbert, Ronald W.

    2007-02-20

    A radio frequency (RF) communication system employs phase-modulated backscatter signals for RF communication from an RF tag to an interrogator. The interrogator transmits a continuous wave interrogation signal to the RF tag, which based on an information code stored in a memory, phase-modulates the interrogation signal to produce a backscatter response signal that is transmitted back to the interrogator. A phase modulator structure in the RF tag may include a switch coupled between an antenna and a quarter-wavelength stub; and a driver coupled between the memory and a control terminal of the switch. The driver is structured to produce a modulating signal corresponding to the information code, the modulating signal alternately opening and closing the switch to respectively decrease and increase the transmission path taken by the interrogation signal and thereby modulate the phase of the response signal. Alternatively, the phase modulator may include a diode coupled between the antenna and driver. The modulating signal from the driver modulates the capacitance of the diode, which modulates the phase of the response signal reflected by the diode and antenna.

  8. Photovoltaic module and module arrays (Patent) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    with corresponding features of a second, identically formed PV module. ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English Word Cloud More Like This Full Text ...

  9. Modulated preheating and isocurvature perturbations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Enqvist, Kari; Rusak, Stanislav E-mail: stanislav.rusak@helsinki.fi

    2013-03-01

    We consider a model of preheating where the coupling of the inflaton to the preheat field is modulated by an additional scalar field which is light during inflation. We establish that such a model produces the observed curvature perturbation analogously to the modulated reheating scenario. The contribution of modulated preheating to the power spectrum and to non-Gaussianity can however be significantly larger compared to modulated perturbative reheating. We also consider the implications of the current constraints on isocurvature perturbations in case where the modulating field is responsible for cold dark matter. We find that existing bounds on CDM isocurvature perturbations imply that modulated preheating is unlikely to give a dominant contribution to the curvature perturbation and that the same bounds suggest important constraints on non-Gaussianity and the amount of primordial gravitational waves.

  10. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  11. Photovoltaic concentrator module improvements study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Levy, S.L.; Kerschen, K.A. ); Hutchison, G. ); Nowlan, M.J. )

    1991-08-01

    This report presents results of a project to design and fabricate an improved photovoltaic concentrator module. Using previous work as a baseline, this study conducted analyses and testing to select major module components and design features. The lens parquet and concentrator solar cell were selected from the highest performing, available components. A single 185X point-focus module was fabricated by the project team and tested at Sandia. Major module characteristics include a 6 by 4 compression-molded acrylic lens parquet (0.737 m{sup 2} area), twenty-four 0.2 ohms-cm, FZ, p-Si solar cells (1.56 cm{sup 2} area) soldered to ceramic substrates and copper heat spreaders, and an aluminized steel housing with corrugated bottom. This project marked the first attempt to use prismatic covers on solar cells in a high-concentration, point-focus application. Cells with 15 percent metallization were obtained, but problems with the fabrication and placement of prismatic covers on these cells lead to the decision not to use covers in the prototype module. Cell assembly fabrication, module fabrication, and module optical design activities are presented here. Test results are also presented for bare cells, cell assemblies, and module. At operating conditions of 981 watts/m{sup 2} DNI and an estimated cell temperature of 65{degrees}C, the module demonstrated an efficiency of 13.9 percent prior to stressed environmental exposure. 12 refs., 56 figs., 7 tabs.

  12. Module 2- Work Breakdown Structure

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This module defines and illustrates the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), WBS dictionary, Organizational Breakdown Structure (OBS) and Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM).

  13. module 4 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4 HR5 TRANSITION BRIEFING PDF icon module 4 More Documents & Publications Microsoft Word - Rev5functionalaccountabilityimplementationplan..doc High Risk Plan Department of...

  14. International Energy Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Summarizes the overall structure of the International Energy Model and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods.

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Research Home > Groups > Future of Condition Monitoring for Wind Turbines Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 11 June, 2015 - 03:19 Base Oil...

  17. Bottom-Up Cost Analysis of a High Concentration PV Module; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Horowitz, K.; Woodhouse, M.; Lee, H.; Smestad, G.

    2015-04-13

    We present a bottom-up model of III-V multi-junction cells, as well as a high concentration PV (HCPV) module. We calculate $0.65/Wp(DC) manufacturing costs for our model HCPV module design with today’s capabilities, and find that reducing cell costs and increasing module efficiency offer the promising pathways for future cost reductions. Cell costs could be significantly reduced via an increase in manufacturing scale, substrate reuse, and improved manufacturing yields. We also identify several other significant drivers of HCPV module costs, including the Fresnel lens primary optic, module housing, thermal management, and the receiver board. These costs could potentially be lowered by employing innovative module designs.

  18. Fortran 90 Source Module

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-01-13

    A major advance contained in the new Fortran 90 language standard is the ability to define new data types and the operators associated with them. Writing computer code to implement computations with real and complex three domensional vectors and dyadics is greatly simplified if the equations can be implemented directly, without the need to code the vector arithmetic explicitly. The Fortran 90 module VECTORS contains source code which defines new data types for real andmore » complex 3-dimensional vectors and dyadics, along with the common operations needed to work with these objects. Routines to allow convenient initalization and output of the new types are also included. in keeping with the philosophy of data abstraction, the details of the implementation of the data types are maintained private, and the functions and operators are made generic to simplify the combining of real, complex, single and double precision vectors and dyadics.« less

  19. Light modulating device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rauh, R. David; Goldner, Ronald B.

    1989-01-01

    In a device for transmitting light, means for controlling the transmissivity of the device, including a ceramic, reversibly electrochromic, crystalline element having a highly reflective state when injected with electrons and charge compensating ions and a highly transmissive state when the electrons and ions are removed, the crystalline element being characterized as having a reflectivity of at least 50% in the reflective state and not greater than 10% in the transmissive state, and means for modulating the crystalline element between the reflective and transmissive states by injecting ions into the crystalline element in response to an applied electrical current of a first polarity and removing the ions in response to an applied electrical current of a second polarity.

  20. Photovoltaic module mounting system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miros, Robert H. J.; Mittan, Margaret Birmingham; Seery, Martin N; Holland, Rodney H

    2012-09-18

    A solar array mounting system having unique installation, load distribution, and grounding features, and which is adaptable for mounting solar panels having no external frame. The solar array mounting system includes flexible, pedestal-style feet and structural links connected in a grid formation on the mounting surface. The photovoltaic modules are secured in place via the use of attachment clamps that grip the edge of the typically glass substrate. The panel mounting clamps are then held in place by tilt brackets and/or mid-link brackets that provide fixation for the clamps and align the solar panels at a tilt to the horizontal mounting surface. The tilt brackets are held in place atop the flexible feet and connected link members thus creating a complete mounting structure.

  1. Photovoltaic module mounting system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miros, Robert H. J.; Mittan, Margaret Birmingham; Seery, Martin N.; Holland, Rodney H.

    2012-04-17

    A solar array mounting system having unique installation, load distribution, and grounding features, and which is adaptable for mounting solar panels having no external frame. The solar array mounting system includes flexible, pedestal-style feet and structural links connected in a grid formation on the mounting surface. The photovoltaic modules are secured in place via the use of attachment clamps that grip the edge of the typically glass substrate. The panel mounting clamps are then held in place by tilt brackets and/or mid-link brackets that provide fixation for the clamps and align the solar panels at a tilt to the horizontal mounting surface. The tilt brackets are held in place atop the flexible feet and connected link members thus creating a complete mounting structure.

  2. Light modulating device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rauh, R.D.; Goldner, R.B.

    1989-12-26

    In a device for transmitting light, means for controlling the transmissivity of the device, including a ceramic, reversibly electrochromic, crystalline element having a highly reflective state when injected with electrons and charge compensating ions and a highly transmissive state when the electrons and ions are removed, the crystalline element being characterized as having a reflectivity of at least 50% in the reflective state and not greater than 10% in the transmissive state, and means for modulating the crystalline element between the reflective and transmissive states by injecting ions into the crystalline element in response to an applied electrical current of a first polarity and removing the ions in response to an applied electrical current of a second polarity are disclosed. 1 fig.

  3. Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The international area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.

  4. Low-voltage differentially-signaled modulators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zortman, William A.; Lentine, Anthony L.; Hsia, Alexander H.; Watts, Michael R.

    2015-09-08

    Photonic modulators and methods of modulating an input optical signal are provided. A photonic modulator includes at least one modulator section and differential drive circuitry. The at least one modulator section includes a P-type layer and an N-type layer forming a PN junction in the modulator section. The differential drive circuitry is electrically coupled to the P-type layer and the N-type layer of the at least one modulator section.

  5. Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Basore, Paul A.; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio

    2015-06-14

    The past decade's record of growth in the photovoltaics manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

  6. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  7. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  8. Argonne's SpEC Module

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Harper, Jason

    2014-06-05

    Jason Harper, an electrical engineer in Argonne National Laboratory's EV-Smart Grid Interoperability Center, discusses his SpEC Module invention that will enable fast charging of electric vehicles in under 15 minutes. The module has been licensed to BTCPower.

  9. Argonne's SpEC Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, Jason

    2014-05-05

    Jason Harper, an electrical engineer in Argonne National Laboratory's EV-Smart Grid Interoperability Center, discusses his SpEC Module invention that will enable fast charging of electric vehicles in under 15 minutes. The module has been licensed to BTCPower.

  10. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2016-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2016 (AEO2016). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  11. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2014 (AEO2014). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  12. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  13. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  14. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  15. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  16. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  17. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  18. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  19. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  20. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  1. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  2. Working with Modules within Perl and Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Working with Modules within Perl and Python Working with Modules within Perl and Python It can often be convenient to work with the modules system from within perl or python scripts. You can do this! Using Modules within Python The EnvironmentModules python package gives access to the module system from within python. The EnvironmentModules python package has a single function: module. Using this function you can provide the same arguments you would to "module" on the command line. The

  3. New Mexico Future City Competition

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future City Competition is focused on tackling challenges of our infrastructure and natural resources. New Mexico's ecosystem and climate are unique. Growing the next generation of ...

  4. The Future of Electron Microscopy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zheng, Haimei

    2015-05-06

    Berkeley Lab scientist Haimei Zheng discusses the future of electron microscopy and her breakthrough research into examining liquids using an electron microscope.

  5. Future missions require improving LANSCE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future missions require improving LANSCE capabilities to support five principal research ... Science Critical to DOE and NNSA Missions for Over 35 Years Hydrodynamics with Proton ...

  6. Force Modulator System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redmond Clark

    2009-04-30

    Many metal parts manufacturers use large metal presses to shape sheet metal into finished products like car body parts, jet wing and fuselage surfaces, etc. These metal presses take sheet metal and - with enormous force - reshape the metal into a fully formed part in a manner of seconds. Although highly efficient, the forces involved in forming metal parts also damage the press itself, limit the metals used in part production, slow press operations and, when not properly controlled, cause the manufacture of large volumes of defective metal parts. To date, the metal-forming industry has not been able to develop a metal-holding technology that allows full control of press forces during the part forming process. This is of particular importance in the automotive lightweighting efforts under way in the US automotive manufacturing marketplace. Metalforming Controls Technology Inc. (MC2) has developed a patented press control system called the Force Modulator that has the ability to control these press forces, allowing a breakthrough in stamping process control. The technology includes a series of hydraulic cylinders that provide controlled tonnage at all points in the forming process. At the same time, the unique cylinder design allows for the generation of very high levels of clamping forces (very high tonnages) in very small spaces; a requirement for forming medium and large panels out of HSS and AHSS. Successful production application of these systems testing at multiple stamping operations - including Ford and Chrysler - has validated the capabilities and economic benefits of the system. Although this technology has been adopted in a number of stamping operations, one of the primary barriers to faster adoption and application of this technology in HSS projects is system cost. The cost issue has surfaced because the systems currently in use are built for each individual die as a custom application, thus driving higher tooling costs. This project proposed to better

  7. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  8. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  9. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  10. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  12. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  14. Program Pu Futures 2006

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fluss, M

    2006-06-12

    The coordination chemistry of plutonium remains relatively unexplored. Thus, the fundamental coordination chemistry of plutonium is being studied using simple multi-dentate ligands with the intention that the information gleaned from these studies may be used in the future to develop plutonium-specific sequestering agents. Towards this goal, hard Lewis-base donors are used as model ligands. Maltol, an inexpensive natural product used in the commercial food industry, is an ideal ligand because it is an all-oxygen bidentate donor, has a rigid structure, and is of small enough size to impose little steric strain, allowing the coordination preferences of plutonium to be the deciding geometric factor. Additionally, maltol is the synthetic precursor of 3,4-HOPO, a siderophore-inspired bidentate moiety tested by us previously as a possible sequestering agent for plutonium under acidic conditions. As comparisons to the plutonium structure, Ce(IV) complexes of the same and related ligands were examined as well. Cerium(IV) complexes serve as good models for plutonium(IV) structures because Ce(IV) has the same ionic radius as Pu(IV) (0.94 {angstrom}). Plutonium(IV) maltol crystals were grown out of a methanol/water solution by slow evaporation to afford red crystals that were evaluated at the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory using single crystal X-ray diffraction. Cerium(IV) complexes with maltol and bromomaltol were crystallized via slow evaporation of the mother liquor to afford tetragonal, black crystals. All three complexes crystallize in space group I4{sub 1}/a. The Ce(IV) complex is isostructural with the Pu(IV) complex, in which donating oxygens adopt a trigonal dodecahedral geometry around the metal with the maltol rings parallel to the crystallographic S{sub 4} axis and lying in a non-crystallographic mirror plane of D{sub 2d} molecular symmetry (Fig 1). The metal-oxygen bonds in both maltol complexes are equal to within 0.04 {angstrom

  15. GDF Future Energies | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Future Energies Jump to: navigation, search Name: GDF Future Energies Place: France Product: Clean energy subsidiary of Gaz de France. References: GDF Future Energies1 This...

  16. OCGen Module Mooring Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McEntee, Jarlath

    2015-02-06

    Ocean Renewable Power Company's OCGen Module Mooring Project provided an extensive research, design, development, testing and data collection effort and analysis conducted with respect to a positively buoyant, submerged MHK device secured to the seabed using a tensioned mooring system. Different analytic tools were evaluated for their utility in the design of submerged systems and their moorings. Deployment and testing of a prototype OCGen® system provided significant data related to mooring line loads and system attitude and station keeping. Mooring line loads were measured in situ and reported against flow speeds. The Project made a significant step in the development of designs, methodologies and practices related to floating and mooring of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices. Importantly for Ocean Renewable Power Company, the Project provided a sound basis for advancing a technically and commercially viable OCGen® Power System. The OCGen® Power System is unique in the MHK industry and, in itself, offers distinct advantages of MHK devices that are secured to the seabed using fixed structural frames. Foremost among these advantages are capital and operating cost reductions and increased power extraction by allowing the device to be placed at the most energetic level of the water column.

  17. Model documentation: Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it related to the production of the 1994 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO94) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves two purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. Of these six, four are documented in the following chapters: municipal solid waste, wind, solar and biofuels. Geothermal and wood are not currently working components of NEMS. The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological and cost characteristics of renewable energy technologies, and to pass these characteristics to other NEMS modules for the determination of mid-term forecasted renewable energy demand.

  18. Working with Modules within Perl and Python

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Working with Modules within Perl and Python Working with Modules within Perl and Python It can often be convenient to work with the modules system from within perl or python...

  19. Microsoft PowerPoint - FinalModule8.ppt

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Module 8: Government Required Reports Welcome to Module ... Prepared by: Booz Allen Hamilton Review of Previous Modules In the previous seven modules, ...

  20. Photovoltaic module with adhesion promoter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Xavier, Grace

    2013-10-08

    Photovoltaic modules with adhesion promoters and methods for fabricating photovoltaic modules with adhesion promoters are described. A photovoltaic module includes a solar cell including a first surface and a second surface, the second surface including a plurality of interspaced back-side contacts. A first glass layer is coupled to the first surface by a first encapsulating layer. A second glass layer is coupled to the second surface by a second encapsulating layer. At least a portion of the second encapsulating layer is bonded directly to the plurality of interspaced back-side contacts by an adhesion promoter.

  1. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  2. In-Situ Measurement of Crystalline Silicon Modules Undergoing Potential-Induced Degradation in Damp Heat Stress Testing for Estimation of Low-Light Power Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hacke, P.; Terwilliger, K.; Kurtz, S.

    2013-08-01

    The extent of potential-induced degradation of crystalline silicon modules in an environmental chamber is estimated using in-situ dark I-V measurements and applying superposition analysis. The dark I-V curves are shown to correctly give the module power performance at 200, 600 and 1,000 W/m2 irradiance conditions, as verified with a solar simulator. The onset of degradation measured in low light in relation to that under one sun irradiance can be clearly seen in the module design examined; the time to 5% relative degradation measured in low light (200 W/m2) was 28% less than that of full sun (1,000 W/m2 irradiance). The power of modules undergoing potential-induced degradation can therefore be characterized in the chamber, facilitating statistical analyses and lifetime forecasting.

  3. Ubbink Solar Modules BV | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Modules BV Place: Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany Zip: 50933 Product: German manufacturer of PV modules, main customer was Ecostream that has agreed to purchase...

  4. Village Hydro Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hydro Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Village Hydro Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus...

  5. Lateral electrodeposition of compositionally modulated metal layers

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearne, Sean J

    2014-03-25

    A method for making a laterally modulated metallic structure that is compositionally modulated in the lateral direction with respect to a substrate.

  6. Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pern, J.

    2008-12-01

    Study of PV module encapsulation materials, processing, and testing shows that overall module reliability is determined by all component materials and processing factors.

  7. Biomass Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Biomass Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area:...

  8. Wind Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Wind Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area:...

  9. Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Module Encapsulation Materials, Processing and Testing (Presentation) Pern, J. 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 36 MATERIALS SCIENCE; ENCAPSULATION; PROCESSING; RELIABILITY; TESTING PV; MODULE...

  10. Photovoltaic Energy Technology Module | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Technology Module Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Photovoltaic Energy Technology Module AgencyCompany Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus...

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  12. Photovoltaic Module Qualification Plus Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, S.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kempe, M.; Bosco, N.; Hacke, P.; Jordan, D.; Miller, D. C.; Silverman, T. J.; Phillips, N.; Earnest, T.; Romero, R.

    2013-12-01

    This report summarizes a set of test methods that are in the midst of being incorporated into IEC 61215 for certification of a module design or other tests that go beyond certification to establish bankability.

  13. Residential Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

  14. Industrial Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  15. Section 25: Future State Assumptions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Future State Assumptions (40 CFR § 194.25) United States Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Carlsbad Field Office Carlsbad, New Mexico Compliance Recertification Application 2014 Future State Assumptions (40 CFR § 194.25) Table of Contents 25.0 Future State Assumptions (40 CFR § 194.25) 25.1 Requirements 25.2 Background 25.3 1998 Certification Decision 25.4 Changes in the CRA-2004 25.5 EPA's Evaluation of Compliance for the 2004 Recertification 25.5.1 40 CFR § 194.25(a) 25.5.2

  16. Compact magnetic energy storage module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prueitt, Melvin L.

    1994-01-01

    A superconducting compact magnetic energy storage module in which a plurality of superconducting toroids, each having a toroidally wound superconducting winding inside a poloidally wound superconducting winding, are stacked so that the flow of electricity in each toroidally wound superconducting winding is in a direction opposite from the direction of electrical flow in other contiguous superconducting toroids. This allows for minimal magnetic pollution outside of the module.

  17. Compact magnetic energy storage module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prueitt, M.L.

    1994-12-20

    A superconducting compact magnetic energy storage module in which a plurality of superconducting toroids, each having a toroidally wound superconducting winding inside a poloidally wound superconducting winding, are stacked so that the flow of electricity in each toroidally wound superconducting winding is in a direction opposite from the direction of electrical flow in other contiguous superconducting toroids. This allows for minimal magnetic pollution outside of the module. 4 figures.

  18. Solar cell module lamination process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carey, Paul G.; Thompson, Jesse B.; Aceves, Randy C.

    2002-01-01

    A solar cell module lamination process using fluoropolymers to provide protection from adverse environmental conditions and thus enable more extended use of solar cells, particularly in space applications. A laminate of fluoropolymer material provides a hermetically sealed solar cell module structure that is flexible and very durable. The laminate is virtually chemically inert, highly transmissive in the visible spectrum, dimensionally stable at temperatures up to about 200.degree. C. highly abrasion resistant, and exhibits very little ultra-violet degradation.

  19. Wide-range voltage modulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rust, K.R.; Wilson, J.M.

    1992-06-01

    The Superconducting Super Collider`s Medium Energy Booster Abort (MEBA) kicker modulator will supply a current pulse to the abort magnets which deflect the proton beam from the MEB ring into a designated beam stop. The abort kicker will be used extensively during testing of the Low Energy Booster (LEB) and the MEB rings. When the Collider is in full operation, the MEBA kicker modulator will abort the MEB beam in the event of a malfunction during the filling process. The modulator must generate a 14-{mu}s wide pulse with a rise time of less than 1 {mu}s, including the delay and jitter times. It must also be able to deliver a current pulse to the magnet proportional to the beam energy at any time during ramp-up of the accelerator. Tracking the beam energy, which increases from 12 GeV at injection to 200 GeV at extraction, requires the modulator to operate over a wide range of voltages (4 kV to 80 kV). A vacuum spark gap and a thyratron have been chosen for test and evaluation as candidate switches for the abort modulator. Modulator design, switching time delay, jitter and pre-fire data are presented.

  20. The future of nuclear energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cugnon, J.

    2005-06-14

    Various aspects of the World energy problem indicate that nuclear energy will still be needed in the future. Conditions for a continued valuable use are discussed. Special attention is focused on the nuclear waste problem.

  1. The Future of Microbial Genomics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyrpides, Nikos [Genome Biology group at the DOE Joint Genome Institute

    2010-06-02

    Nikos Kyrpides, head of the Genome Biology group at the DOE Joint Genome Institute discusses current challenges in the field of microbial genomics on June 2, 2010 at the "Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future" meeting in Santa Fe, NM

  2. Powertrain Trends and Future Potential

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Powertrain Trends and Future Potential * Global Trends - Fighting Global Warming * Clean Diesel - Neglected in the U.S. for Too Long Agenda DSNE-NA | August 4, 2009 | Robert ...

  3. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  4. Energy and Infrastructure Future Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Rush Robinett Energy &Infrastructure Future Group Sandia National Laboratories rdrobin@sandia.gov Energy & Infrastructure Future Overview 2 Sandia's Core Purpose "Helping our Nation Secure a Peaceful and Free World through Technology" * National Security Laboratory * Broad mission in developing science and technology applications to meet our rapidly changing, complex national security challenges * Safety, security and reliability of our nation's nuclear weapon stockpile 3

  5. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  6. Laser frequency modulator for modulating a laser cavity

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Erbert, Gaylen V.

    1992-01-01

    The present invention relates to a laser frequency modulator for modulating a laser cavity. It is known in the prior art to utilize a PZT (piezoelectric transducer) element in combination with a mirror to change the cavity length of a laser cavity (which changes the laser frequency). Using a PZT element to drive the mirror directly is adequate at frequencies below 10 kHz. However, in high frequency applications (100 kHz and higher) PZT elements alone do not provide a sufficient change in the cavity length. The present invention utilizes an ultrasonic concentrator with a PZT element and mirror to provide modulation of the laser cavity. With an ultrasonic concentrator, the mirror element at the end of a laser cavity can move at larger amplitudes and higher frequencies.

  7. Module and/or Cell Manufacturing

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Reporting Companies, total number of: 59 Employment, full-time equivalent employees: 10,628 Module and/or Cell Manufacturing 26 Module or System Design 20 Prototype Module Development 15 Prototype Systems Development 8 Wholesale Distribution 30 Retail Distribution 12 Installations 9 Other 5 90-100% 43 50-89% 4 10-49% 6 Less than 10% 6 Crystalline Silicon: Single-Crystal Modules 12 Crystalline Silicon: Cast Modules 8 Thin-Film: Amorphous Silicon Modules 3 Thin-Film: Other Modules 2 Concentrators

  8. Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use.After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

  9. Apparatus for encapsulating a photovoltaic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Albright, Scot P.; Dugan, Larry M.

    1995-10-24

    The subject inventions concern various photovoltaic module designs to protect the module from horizontal and vertical impacts and degradation of solar cell efficiency caused by moisture. In one design, a plurality of panel supports that are positioned adjacent to the upper panel in a photovoltaic module absorb vertical forces exerted along an axis perpendicular to the upper panel. Other designs employ layers of glass and tempered glass, respectively, to protect the module from vertical impacts. A plurality of button-shaped channels is used around the edges of the photovoltaic module to absorb forces applied to the module along an axis parallel to the module and direct moisture away from the module that could otherwise penetrate the module and adversely affect the cells within the module. A spacer is employed between the upper and lower panels that has a coefficient of thermal expansion substantially equivalent to the coefficient of thermal expansion of at least one of the panels.

  10. NEMS integrating module documentation report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-14

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system that produces a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand in the US energy markets. The model achieves a supply and demand balance in the end-use demand regions, defined as the nine Census Divisions, by solving for the prices of each energy type such that the quantities producers are willing to supply equal the quantities consumers wish to consume. The system reflects market economics, industry structure, and energy policies and regulations that influence market behavior. The NEMS Integrating Module is the central integrating component of a complex modeling system. As such, a thorough understanding of its role in the modeling process can only be achieved by placing it in the proper context with respect to the other modules. To that end, this document provides an overview of the complete NEMS model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  11. Compact nanomechanical plasmonic phase modulators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dennis, B. S.; Haftel, M. I.; Czaplewski, D. A.; Lopez, D.; Blumberg, G.; Aksyuk, V. A.

    2015-03-30

    Highly confined optical energy in plasmonic devices is advancing miniaturization in photonics. However, for mode sizes approaching ≈10 nm, the energy increasingly shifts into the metal, raising losses and hindering active phase modulation. Here, we propose a nanoelectromechanical phase-modulation principle exploiting the extraordinarily strong dependence of the phase velocity of metal–insulator–metal gap plasmons on dynamically variable gap size. We experimentally demonstrate a 23-μm-long non-resonant modulator having a 1.5π rad range, with 1.7 dB excess loss at 780 nm. Analysis shows that by simultaneously decreasing the gap, length and width, an ultracompact-footprint π rad phase modulator can be realized. This is achieved without incurring the extra loss expected for plasmons confined in a decreasing gap, because the increasing phase-modulation strength from a narrowing gap offsets rising propagation losses. Such small, high-density electrically controllable components may find applications in optical switch fabrics and reconfigurable plasmonic optics.

  12. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  13. FutureGen Project Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  14. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  15. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... exchange, premises controls and for configuring the new utility demand forecasting system. ... person thinks about hisher home energy costs in real time (or even at any time between ...

  17. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Atmospheric Radiation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... Reports (DQRs), propagate uncertainties when transforming data from one time scale into another, and convert names and units into NetCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) standards. ...

  18. Reflective coherent spatial light modulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simpson, John T.; Richards, Roger K.; Hutchinson, Donald P.; Simpson, Marcus L.

    2003-04-22

    A reflective coherent spatial light modulator (RCSLM) includes a subwavelength resonant grating structure (SWS), the SWS including at least one subwavelength resonant grating layer (SWL) have a plurality of areas defining a plurality of pixels. Each pixel represents an area capable of individual control of its reflective response. A structure for modulating the resonant reflective response of at least one pixel is provided. The structure for modulating can include at least one electro-optic layer in optical contact with the SWS. The RCSLM is scalable in both pixel size and wavelength. A method for forming a RCSLM includes the steps of selecting a waveguide material and forming a SWS in the waveguide material, the SWS formed from at least one SWL, the SWL having a plurality of areas defining a plurality of pixels.

  19. Solid-state membrane module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gordon, John Howard; Taylor, Dale M.

    2011-06-07

    Solid-state membrane modules comprising at least one membrane unit, where the membrane unit has a dense mixed conducting oxide layer, and at least one conduit or manifold wherein the conduit or manifold comprises a dense layer and at least one of a porous layer and a slotted layer contiguous with the dense layer. The solid-state membrane modules may be used to carry out a variety of processes including the separating of any ionizable component from a feedstream wherein such ionizable component is capable of being transported through a dense mixed conducting oxide layer of the membrane units making up the membrane modules. For ease of construction, the membrane units may be planar.

  20. Active combustion flow modulation valve

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hensel, John Peter; Black, Nathaniel; Thorton, Jimmy Dean; Vipperman, Jeffrey Stuart; Lambeth, David N; Clark, William W

    2013-09-24

    A flow modulation valve has a slidably translating hollow armature with at least one energizable coil wound around and fixably attached to the hollow armature. The energizable coil or coils are influenced by at least one permanent magnet surrounding the hollow armature and supported by an outer casing. Lorentz forces on the energizable coils which are translated to the hollow armature, increase or decrease the flow area to provide flow throttling action. The extent of hollow armature translation depends on the value of current supplied and the direction of translation depends on the direction of current flow. The compact nature of the flow modulation valve combined with the high forces afforded by the actuator design provide a flow modulation valve which is highly responsive to high-rate input control signals.

  1. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  2. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  3. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  4. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  5. Programmable Multi-Chip Module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David; Morgenstern, Howard; Blazek, Roy J.

    2005-05-24

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  6. Programmable Multi-Chip Module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David; Morgenstern, Howard; Blazek, Roy J.

    2004-11-16

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  7. Programmable multi-chip module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kautz, David; Morgenstern, Howard; Blazek, Roy J.

    2004-03-02

    A multi-chip module comprising a low-temperature co-fired ceramic substrate having a first side on which are mounted active components and a second side on which are mounted passive components, wherein this segregation of components allows for hermetically sealing the active components with a cover while leaving accessible the passive components, and wherein the passive components are secured using a reflow soldering technique and are removable and replaceable so as to make the multi-chip module substantially programmable with regard to the passive components.

  8. Water for future Mars astronauts?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water for future Mars astronauts? Water for future Mars astronauts? Within its first three months on Mars, NASA's Curiosity Rover saw a surprising diversity of soils and sediments along a half-kilometer route that tell a complex story about the gradual desiccation of the Red Planet. September 26, 2013 This image shows two areas on Mars in a location named Rocknest that were scooped out by the Curiosity Rover last year. Researchers took samples of the areas to determine whether they were wetter

  9. Problems of future energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kaya, Y.

    1981-04-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe some of the key issues in the present energy system and to discuss possible future visions of the system. The first part of this paper deals with the progress in energy conservation since the oil embargo in 1973. Assuming the prospect that the petroleum supply will peak within this century and then will go down, and that the limit of energy conservation of the present energy systems will be achieved during the same period, the possible and desirable image is discussed of the future energy system. 5 refs.

  10. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  11. Options for Kentucky's Energy Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larry Demick

    2012-11-01

    Three important imperatives are being pursued by the Commonwealth of Kentucky: ? Developing a viable economic future for the highly trained and experienced workforce and for the Paducah area that today supports, and is supported by, the operations of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP). Currently, the PGDP is scheduled to be taken out of service in May, 2013. ? Restructuring the economic future for Kentucky’s most abundant indigenous resource and an important industry – the extraction and utilization of coal. The future of coal is being challenged by evolving and increasing requirements for its extraction and use, primarily from the perspective of environmental restrictions. Further, it is important that the economic value derived from this important resource for the Commonwealth, its people and its economy is commensurate with the risks involved. Over 70% of the extracted coal is exported from the Commonwealth and hence not used to directly expand the Commonwealth’s economy beyond the severance taxes on coal production. ? Ensuring a viable energy future for Kentucky to guarantee a continued reliable and affordable source of energy for its industries and people. Today, over 90% of Kentucky’s electricity is generated by burning coal with a delivered electric power price that is among the lowest in the United States. Anticipated increased environmental requirements necessitate looking at alternative forms of energy production, and in particular electricity generation.

  12. Vision of the Future Grid

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The GTT developed a draft vision (below) which describes a future electricity system and lists several key attributes of that system. In its current form, this vision incorporates comments made by stakeholders during meetings organized by the GTT. The vision will continue to evolve and be refined as the GTT engages with the broader stakeholder community.

  13. NREL: Energy Analysis - Renewable Electricity Futures Study

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Renewable Electricity Futures Study RE Futures Scenario Viewer A screenshot of the main map on the RE Futures Scenario Viewer Explore the RE Futures scenarios at a state-level and download the data. RE Futures Visualizations These visualizations are based on RE Futures modeling and represent the transformation of the U.S. electric system to a high renewable system from 2010 to 2050 and the hourly operation and transmission flow of that system in 2050. Transformation of the Electric Sector

  14. A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions | Department of Energy A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions A Comparison of Key PV Backsheet and Module Properties from Fielded Module Exposures and Accelerated Test Conditions Presented at the PV Module Reliability Workshop, February 26 - 27 2013, Golden, Colorado pvmrw13_ps5_dupont_gambogi.pdf (781.38 KB) More Documents & Publications Agenda for the PV Module

  15. WRAP module 1 treatment plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mayancsik, B.A.

    1995-05-01

    This document provides the methodology to treat waste in the Waste Receiving and Processing Module 1 facility to meet the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) land disposal restrictions or the Waste Isolation and Pilot Plant waste acceptance criteria. This includes Low-Level Mixed Waste, Transuranic Waste, and Transuranic Mixed Waste.

  16. Coal Market Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

  17. Impact of oxygenates on petroleum refining, review and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unzelman, G.H.

    1995-09-01

    During the coming decade, oxygenates will continue to impact light oil processing and will steadily change the composition of the US gasoline pool. There are several major driving forces that will sustain the gradual influx of oxygen to US gasoline toward the regulatory limits: (1) the positive environmental characteristics of oxygenated compounds, (2) the high-octane quality of ethers that promote elimination of less desirable hydrocarbons and (3) the competitive need for ultra-clean gasoline to compete with alternatives. From 1995 forward, conventional gasoline will gradually shift to RFG (reformulated gasoline) containing a minimum of 2 wt% oxygen and less aromatics. As a result some processing changes, already in motion in the refining industry, will continue. For example, less severe naphtha reforming and cracking innovations to yield more feed for etherification and alkylation. While alternative fuel and vehicle technology will continue to develop, oxygenates in US gasoline will contribute the major alternative dimension to transportation fuel in the foreseeable future. With RFG, internal-combustion engine emissions will be progressively less toxic and lower in photochemical reactivity. The oxygenate mix will favor methyl ethers in spite of the recent methanol price spike. Ethyl ethers will be used on a more limited basis for specific situations where lower volatility and feedstock economics are an advantage. Downstream blending of ethanol will supplement ethers blended at the refinery in situations where economics are more favorable than refinery ethers. Long-range survival of ethanol, as a direct blending agent or feedstock for refinery ethers, depends on one or more of several factors: future crude oil costs, longevity of subsidies and/or mandates, and new production technology based on cellulose yielding ethanol economically competitive with hydrocarbons.

  18. Future Energy Solutions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solutions Jump to: navigation, search Name: Future Energy Solutions Place: Didcot, United Kingdom Zip: OX11 0QR Product: Future Energy Solutions is a sustainable energy...

  19. Future Energy Assets LP | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Assets LP Jump to: navigation, search Name: Future Energy Assets LP Place: Austin, Texas Zip: 78701 Product: String representation "Future Energy A ... S and in China." is too...

  20. Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics Brain Receptor Structures Key to Future Therapeutics Print Wednesday, 28 January 2015 00:00 With an aging population in ...

  1. Brighter Future for Kentucky Manufacturing Plants | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Brighter Future for Kentucky Manufacturing Plants Brighter Future for Kentucky Manufacturing Plants May 28, 2010 - 3:04pm Addthis Montaplast North America, Inc. is replacing almost ...

  2. Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future Bottlenecks for Industrial Water Recycling. Authors: Brady, Patrick V....

  3. Hydrogen & Our Energy Future | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Future Hydrogen & Our Energy Future DOE overview of hydrogen fuel initiative and hydrogen production, delivery and storate hydrogenenergyfutureweb.pdf More Documents &...

  4. Growing America's Energy Future: Bioenergy Technologies Office...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    America's Energy Future: Bioenergy Technologies Office Successes of 2014 Growing America's Energy Future: Bioenergy Technologies Office Successes of 2014 The Bioenergy Technologies ...

  5. Modulation compression for short wavelength harmonic generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qiang, J.

    2010-01-11

    Laser modulator is used to seed free electron lasers. In this paper, we propose a scheme to compress the initial laser modulation in the longitudinal phase space by using two opposite sign bunch compressors and two opposite sign energy chirpers. This scheme could potentially reduce the initial modulation wavelength by a factor of C and increase the energy modulation amplitude by a factor of C, where C is the compression factor of the first bunch compressor. Such a compressed energy modulation can be directly used to generate short wavelength current modulation with a large bunching factor.

  6. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  7. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  8. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  9. SiC Power Module

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... surfaces on the wings and flaps of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter have been 22 R&D 100 ... Figure 11.3. The future of aviation is the More Electric Aircraft, such as the F-35 Joint ...

  10. Interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    English, R.E. Jr.; Johnson, S.A.

    1994-10-11

    An interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules is provided particularly for the purpose of delivering enhancing transverse energy beams in the form of illumination bar to the lasing zone of a dye laser device, in particular to a dye laser amplifier. The preferred interface module includes an optical fiber array having a plurality of optical fibers arrayed in a co-planar fashion with their distal ends receiving coherent laser energy from an enhancing laser source, and their proximal ends delivered into a relay structure. The proximal ends of the optical fibers are arrayed so as to be coplanar and to be aimed generally at a common point. The transverse energy beam array delivered from the optical fiber array is acted upon by an optical element array to produce an illumination bar which has a cross section in the form of a elongated rectangle at the position of the lasing window. The illumination bar is selected to have substantially uniform intensity throughout. 5 figs.

  11. Interface module for transverse energy input to dye laser modules

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    English, Jr., Ronald E.; Johnson, Steve A.

    1994-01-01

    An interface module (10) for transverse energy input to dye laser modules is provided particularly for the purpose of delivering enhancing transverse energy beams (36) in the form of illumination bar (54) to the lasing zone (18) of a dye laser device, in particular to a dye laser amplifier (12). The preferred interface module (10) includes an optical fiber array (30) having a plurality of optical fibers (38) arrayed in a co-planar fashion with their distal ends (44) receiving coherent laser energy from an enhancing laser source (46), and their proximal ends (4) delivered into a relay structure (3). The proximal ends (42) of the optical fibers (38) are arrayed so as to be coplanar and to be aimed generally at a common point. The transverse energy beam array (36) delivered from the optical fiber array (30) is acted upon by an optical element array (34) to produce an illumination bar (54) which has a cross section in the form of a elongated rectangle at the position of the lasing window (18). The illumination bar (54) is selected to have substantially uniform intensity throughout.

  12. Revision of the DELFIC Particle Activity Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hooper, David A; Jodoin, Vincent J

    2010-09-01

    The Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) was originally released in 1968 as a tool for modeling fallout patterns and for predicting exposure rates. Despite the continual advancement of knowledge of fission yields, decay behavior of fission products, and biological dosimetry, the decay data and logic of DELFIC have remained mostly unchanged since inception. Additionally, previous code revisions caused a loss of conservation of radioactive nuclides. In this report, a new revision of the decay database and the Particle Activity Module is introduced and explained. The database upgrades discussed are replacement of the fission yields with ENDF/B-VII data as formatted in the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code, revised decay constants, revised exposure rate multipliers, revised decay modes and branching ratios, and revised boiling point data. Included decay logic upgrades represent a correction of a flaw in the treatment of the fission yields, extension of the logic to include more complex decay modes, conservation of nuclides (including stable nuclides) at all times, and conversion of key variables to double precision for nuclide conservation. Finally, recommended future work is discussed with an emphasis on completion of the overall radiation physics upgrade, particularly for dosimetry, induced activity, decay of the actinides, and fractionation.

  13. REGULATIONS ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE DISPOSAL AND RECYCLING.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    FTHENAKIS,V.

    2001-01-29

    Environmental regulations can have a significant impact on product use, disposal, and recycling. This report summarizes the basic aspects of current federal, state and international regulations which apply to end-of-life photovoltaic (PV) modules and PV manufacturing scrap destined for disposal or recycling. It also discusses proposed regulations for electronics that may set the ground of what is to be expected in this area in the near future. In the US, several states have started programs to support the recycling of electronic equipment, and materials destined for recycling often are excepted from solid waste regulations during the collection, transfer, storage and processing stages. California regulations are described separately because they are different from those of most other states. International agreements on the movement of waste between different countries may pose barriers to cross-border shipments. Currently waste moves freely among country members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and between the US and the four countries with which the US has bilateral agreements. However, it is expected, that the US will adopt the rules of the Basel Convention (an agreement which currently applies to 128 countries but not the US) and that the Convection's waste classification system will influence the current OECD waste-handling system. Some countries adopting the Basel Convention consider end-of-life electronics to be hazardous waste, whereas the OECD countries consider them to be non-hazardous. Also, waste management regulations potentially affecting electronics in Germany and Japan are mentioned in this report.

  14. PV module mounting method and mounting assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lenox, Carl J.S.; Johnson, Kurt M.

    2013-04-23

    A method for mounting PV modules to a deck includes selecting PV module layout pattern so that adjacent PV module edges are spaced apart. PV mounting and support assemblies are secured to the deck according to the layout pattern using fasteners extending into the deck. The PV modules are placed on the PV mounting and support assemblies. Retaining elements are located over and secured against the upper peripheral edge surfaces of the PV modules so to secure them to the deck with the peripheral edges of the PV modules spaced apart from the deck. In some examples a PV module mounting assembly, for use on a shingled deck, comprises flashing, a base mountable on the flashing, a deck-penetrating fastener engageable with the base and securable to the deck so to secure the flashing and the base to the shingled deck, and PV module mounting hardware securable to the base.

  15. Extension Modules for the Python Interpretive language

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-12-29

    Python is an interpreted computer language, freely available to all, which may be extended by user developed "modules". These modules ay be written in a complied language such as 'C', and then linked into the Python program

  16. Mounting support for a photovoltaic module

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Brandt, Gregory Michael; Barsun, Stephan K.; Coleman, Nathaniel T.; Zhou, Yin

    2013-03-26

    A mounting support for a photovoltaic module is described. The mounting support includes a foundation having an integrated wire-way ledge portion. A photovoltaic module support mechanism is coupled with the foundation.

  17. Reliability Issues for Photovoltaic Modules (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kurtz, S.

    2009-10-01

    Si modules good in field; new designs need reliability testing. CdTe & CIGS modules sensitive to moisture; carefully seal. CPV in product development stage; benefits from expertise in other industries.

  18. Model Documentation Report: Residential Demand Module of the...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (conditioned square footage) based on current Census Bureau data. * Revision of the benchmarking process that incorporates historical and near-term forecasted values. December 2012...

  19. Residential Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    (conditioned square footage) based on current Census Bureau data. * Revision of the benchmarking process that incorporates historical and near-term forecasted values. * Revision of...

  20. Examining Future Global Energy Demand

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Examining Future Global Transportation Energy Demand For EIA Energy Conference July 11, 2016 | Washington, DC By John Maples Outline * Model overview - Passenger travel - Freight travel - Energy consumption for 16 regions: * USA, Canada, Mexico/Chile, OECD Europe, Japan, S. Korea, Australia/New Zealand * Russia, Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, China, India, Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, Africa, Brazil, Other South/Central * IEO2016 Reference case transportation projections * Preliminary scenario results