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Sample records for modeling portfolio risk

  1. Portfolio Risk Modeling | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    (0) NEPA(0) Exploration Technique Information Exploration Group: Data and Modeling Techniques Exploration Sub Group: Modeling Techniques Parent Exploration Technique: Modeling...

  2. Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 tomore » 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy’s (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.« less

  3. Microsoft PowerPoint -Risk_Portfolio_Manager(RPM)_overview_Under...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUnderSecDOE2011V4 Final 3-22-2011.ppt Read-Only Compatibili Microsoft PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUn...

  4. Projected Benefits of EERE's Portfolio (by program and model)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-11-17

    This collection of charts shows the benefits metrics for renewable energy technologies in the EERE portfolio for 2010-2050 for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  5. Risk assessment methodology applied to counter IED research & development portfolio prioritization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shevitz, Daniel W; O' Brien, David A; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Chavez, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to protect the United States from the ever increasing threat of domestic terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has significantly increased research activities to counter the terrorist use of explosives. More over, DHS S&T has established a robust Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Program to Deter, Predict, Detect, Defeat, and Mitigate this imminent threat to the Homeland. The DHS S&T portfolio is complicated and changing. In order to provide the ''best answer'' for the available resources, DHS S&T would like some ''risk based'' process for making funding decisions. There is a definite need for a methodology to compare very different types of technologies on a common basis. A methodology was developed that allows users to evaluate a new ''quad chart'' and rank it, compared to all other quad charts across S&T divisions. It couples a logic model with an evidential reasoning model using an Excel spreadsheet containing weights of the subjective merits of different technologies. The methodology produces an Excel spreadsheet containing the aggregate rankings of the different technologies. It uses Extensible Logic Modeling (ELM) for logic models combined with LANL software called INFTree for evidential reasoning.

  6. Portfolio Software

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Projects by Technology Portfolio Projects by Technology For printable PDF files of LPO's portfolio projects and LPO's illustrated poster series highlighting clean energy and advanced vehicles manufacturing technologies from its portfolio, please see the LPO Publications page. ADVANCED VEHICLES MANUFACTURING PROJECT LOAN PROGRAM TECHNOLOGY OWNER(S) LOCATION(S) LOAN TYPE LOAN AMOUNT 1 ISSUANCE DATE FORD ATVM Advanced Vehicles Manufacturing Ford Motor Company Illinois (Chicago), Kentucky

  7. Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Model The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model is a system used to analyze the cost and benefit of addressing risks inherent in the work performed by the Department of Energy. This system measures risk using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to set a standard method for analyzing risk across the many functions within the department. Risks generally fall within five categories regardless ofthe subject matter ofthe subsystem. These categories are (1) risks to people, (2)

  8. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langner, R.; Hendron, B.; Bonnema, E.

    2014-08-01

    The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

  9. Project Portfolio Oversight | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Business Operations » Project Management Coordination Office » Project Portfolio Oversight Project Portfolio Oversight The Project Management Coordination Office (PMCO) provides oversight and risk management of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) project portfolio, including base-funded, Recovery Act and Congressionally Directed Projects. Goals and Priorities Complete the orderly closeout and de-obligation of EERE's Recovery Act portfolio. Regularly work with the EERE

  10. Category:Modeling Techniques | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Analytical Modeling 1 pages C Conceptual Model 1 pages M Modeling-Computer Simulations 1 pages N Numerical Modeling 1 pages P Portfolio Risk...

  11. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program Rois Langner, Bob Hendron, and Eric Bonnema Technical Report NREL/TP-5500-60976 August 2014 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  12. Modeling renewable portfolio standards for the annual energy outlook 1998 - electricity market module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM) Submodule. For the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), the EMM has been modified to represent Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which are included in many of the Federal and state proposals for deregulating the electric power industry. A RPS specifies that electricity suppliers must produce a minimum level of generation using renewable technologies. Producers with insufficient renewable generating capacity can either build new plants or purchase {open_quotes}credits{close_quotes} from other suppliers with excess renewable generation. The representation of a RPS involves revisions to the ECP, EFD, and the EFP. The ECP projects capacity additions required to meet the minimum renewable generation levels in future years. The EFD determines the sales and purchases of renewable credits for the current year. The EFP incorporates the cost of building capacity and trading credits into the price of electricity.

  13. Research Portfolio Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Portfolio Map Welcome to the Strategic Center for Coal Project Portfolio Web Map assembled by NETL. The web map includes projects across all Coal & Power Systems ...

  14. The Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management Model Using the Risk Assessment Tool to Prepare a Justification Memorandum for the Development and Revision of Departmental Directives * On January 14,...

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  16. PORTFOLIO | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO INVESTING IN AMERICAN ENERGY Through its Title XVII Innovative Clean Energy Projects loan program and Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program, the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) has financed a portfolio of innovative clean energy projects and advanced technology vehicle manufacturing facilities across the United States. LPO's portfolio has supported job creation and is preventing harmful CO2 pollution while enhancing

  17. Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 2015, the NY PSC issued an order extending the Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS) and Customer-Sited Tier (CST) of the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) till Feb 29, 2016...

  18. Oil industry investment and research as portfolio choices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helfat, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    The Tobin-Markowitz portfolio selection model is used to test two hypotheses: (1) the oil price increase of 1973-74 altered the structure of oil industry risks and returns in favor of certain types of research and investment; (2) the altered structure of risks and their correlations affected the allocation of funds to capital investment and research and development in the oil industry. To test these hypotheses, the efficient frontiers of investment and R and D projects for a representative firm in the oil industry are derived empirically, pre-embargo and post-embargo. In deriving the efficient frontiers, the Tobin-Markowitz model is altered to account for an asset whose supply to the industry if fixed and whose price is determined endogenously from the portfolio selection model itself. This asset is an offshore oil tract. The government fixes the supply of offshore oil tracts to the industry, for which the firms submit sealed bids. Because the returns to investment in offshore oil covary with the returns to other types of industry investment and R and D, firms determine the price to bid for a tract in conjunction with the allocation of funds to all of the firm's projects. Both the actual expenditure shares by the industry and those predicted by the model showed an increased share of the portfolio devoted to offshore oil investment and a decreased share to other projects after the embargo.

  19. portfolio | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2015 Turbines Project Portfolio Turbines are the main power producing components for fossil fuel electricity generation. The Advanced Turbines Program is focused on R&D activities to develop technologies that will accelerate turbine performance, efficiency, and emissions reduction beyond current state-of-the-art and reduce the risk to market for novel and advanced turbine-based power cycles. Project emphasis is on understanding the underlying factors affecting combustion, aerodynamics/heat

  20. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Massachusetts' 1997 electric-utility restructuring legislation created the framework for a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). In April 2002, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER)...

  1. Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Maryland's Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard, enacted in May 2004 and revised numerous times since, requires electricity suppliers (all utilities and competitive retail suppliers) to use renewa...

  2. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE: On February 2016, the PA Public Service Commission (PUC) issued a final rulemaking order amending and clarifying several provisions of PA Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS), net...

  3. 2015 Project Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project Portfolio 2015 Project Portfolio 2015_ssl-project-portfolio.pdf (1.72 MB) More Documents & Publications 2014 Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio 2016 Project Portfolio Solid-State Lighting Patents Resulting from DOE-Funded Projects

  4. 2016 Project Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project Portfolio 2016 Project Portfolio 2016_ssl-project-portfolio.pdf (1.58 MB) More Documents & Publications 2015 Project Portfolio 2014 Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio Solid-State Lighting 2015 R&D Plan

  5. A Monte Carlo Approach To Generator Portfolio Planning And Carbon...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    solar thermal, and rooftop photovoltaics, as well as hydroelectric, geothermal, and natural gas plants. The portfolios produced by the model take advantage of the aggregation of...

  6. Mathematical models for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaikin, S.A.

    1995-12-01

    The use of mathematical models in risk assessment results in the proper understanding of many aspects of chemical exposure and allows to make more actual decisions. Our project ISCRA (Integrated Systems of Complex Risk Assessment) has the aim to create integrated systems of algorythms for prediction of pollutants` exposure on human and environmental health and to apply them for environmental monitoring, and decision-making. Mathematical model {open_quotes}MASTER{close_quotes} (Mathematical Algorythm of SimulaTion of Environmental Risk) represents the complex of algorythmical blocks and is intended for the prediction of danger of pollutants` exposure for human and environmental risk. Model LIMES (LIMits EStimation) is developed for prognosis of safety concentrations of pollutants in the environment both in the case of isolated exposure and in the case of complex exposure for concrete location. Model QUANT (QUANtity of Toxicant) represents the multicompartmental physiological pharmacokinetic model describing absorption, distribution, fate, metabolism, and elimination of pollutants in the body of different groups of human population, as a result of the different kind of exposure. Decision support system CLEVER (Complex LEVE1 of Risk) predicts the probability and the degree of development of unfavourable effects as result of exposure of pollutant on human health. System is based on the data of epidemiological and experimental researches and includes several mathematical models for analysis of {open_quotes}dose-time-response{close_quotes} relations and information about clinical symptoms of diseases. Model CEP (Combination Effect Prognosis) contains probabilistic algorythms for forecasting the effect of simultaneous impact of several factors polluting the environment. The result of the program work is the prediction of an independent exposure of two or more factors, and intensification or weakening of exposure in depending on factors` interactions.

  7. Loan Specialist (Portfolio Management)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the Portfolio Management Division of the U. S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO). The incumbent in this position will serve as a Loan Specialist,...

  8. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    In October 1999, Wisconsin enacted Act 9, becoming the first state to enact a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) without having restructured its electric utility industry. The RPS sets a total goal...

  9. Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Note: SB 350, signed on October 7, 2015, made a number of changes to California's Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS). Most notably, SB 350 extended the timeline and requirements under the RPS to...

  10. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's original Renewable Resource Portfolio Requirement was passed as part of the state's 1997 electric utility restructuring law.  In 1999, Maine's Public Utility Commission (PUC) adopted rules...

  11. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In January 2005, the District of Columbia Council enacted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that applies to all retail electricity sales in the District. In October 2008 the RPS was amended by...

  12. Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    New Jersey's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) was first adopted in 1999 and has been updated several times. The total RPS requirement in New Jersey including solar carve out is 24.39% by EY 2028....

  13. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate Portfolio Manager; add a property and enter details...

  14. ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Use of Nanomaterials, January 2011 ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing Processes and Applications to Accelerate Commercial Use of Nanomaterials, ...

  15. 2016 Carbon Storage Project Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2016 Carbon Storage Project Portfolio Carbon Storage Project Portfolio Cover The 2016 Carbon Storage Project Portfolio provides a comprehensive overview of the NETL Carbon Storage Program's current and recently completed work. The portfolio includes division personnel contact information, technology area introductions, project communication products for projects active on or after 10/1/2016, papers and technical reports, best practices manuals, and access to all archived projects. Carbon Storage

  16. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Once LPO closes a loan or loan guarantee, projects are monitored and evaluated throughout project development, construction, commissioning, and operation until the loan has been repaid in full. LPO's team of financial, technical, environmental, and legal professionals is dedicated to advancing an all-of-the-above energy strategy that avoids, reduces, or sequesters greenhouse gases. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT DIVISION (PMD) After financial

  17. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  18. Projected Benefits of EERE's Portfolio - FY 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-11-17

    This collection of data tables and charts shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  19. Gasification Systems Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2015 Gasification Systems Project Portfolio Gasification is a clean way to efficiently produce electric power, a wide range of transportation fuels, and chemicals from coal and other solid feedstocks. By first converting the solid feedstock to a gaseous form (syngas), potential pollutants can be captured and reduced to any desired level and then converted to useful by-products or safely disposed. The Gasification Systems Program is developing advanced technologies to improve the economics and

  20. PNNL Energy Codes Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PNNL Energy Codes Portfolio 2015 Building Technologies Office Peer Review ADOPT COMPLY DEVELOP Bing Liu bing.liu@pnnl.gov Rosemarie Bartlett rosemarie.bartlett@pnnl.gov Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Project Summary Timeline: Multi-year program in support of DOE statutory requirements Key Milestones: 1. DOE's Determinations on 90.1-2013 and 2015 IECC 2. Update DOE's Energy odes ost-Effectiveness Methodology 3. Commercial Codes Roadmap 4. 90.1-2013 and 2015 IECC Cost Analyses 5.

  1. Need for An Integrated Risk Model | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Need for An Integrated Risk Model Need for An Integrated Risk Model Need for An Integrated Risk Model Michael Salmon, LANL PDF icon Need for An Integrated Risk Model More Documents...

  2. Use of Solar and Wind as a Physical Hedge against Price Variability within a Generation Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jenkin, T.; Diakov, V.; Drury, E.; Bush, B.; Denholm, P.; Milford, J.; Arent, D.; Margolis, R.; Byrne, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study provides a framework to explore the potential use and incremental value of small- to large-scale penetration of solar and wind technologies as a physical hedge against the risk and uncertainty of electricity cost on multi-year to multi-decade timescales. Earlier studies characterizing the impacts of adding renewable energy (RE) to portfolios of electricity generators often used a levelized cost of energy or simplified net cash flow approach. In this study, we expand on previous work by demonstrating the use of an 8760 hourly production cost model (PLEXOS) to analyze the incremental impact of solar and wind penetration under a wide range of penetration scenarios for a region in the Western U.S. We do not attempt to 'optimize' the portfolio in any of these cases. Rather we consider different RE penetration scenarios, that might for example result from the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to explore the dynamics, risk mitigation characteristics and incremental value that RE might add to the system. We also compare the use of RE to alternative mechanisms, such as the use of financial or physical supply contracts to mitigate risk and uncertainty, including consideration of their effectiveness and availability over a variety of timeframes.

  3. oil and gas portfolio reports

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Gas Research Portfolio Reports Natural Gas & Oil Program Research Portfolio Reports The Office of Fossil Energy (FE)/National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is releasing a series of nine Research Portfolio Reports to provide a snapshot of results and accomplishments completed to-date for active and completed projects under three focus areas: Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources; Ultra-Deepwater; and Small Producers. The reports capture research conducted over the last ten years

  4. PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications LPO Financial Performance Report PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Powering New Markets: Utility-scale Photovoltaic Solar Financing Innovation to Address Global ...

  5. Clean Energy Portfolio Goal | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Renewables Portfolio Standard Summary In May 2011, Indiana enacted SB 251, creating the Clean Energy Portfolio Standard (CPS). The program sets a voluntary goal of 10% clean...

  6. Electricity Generating Portfolios with Small Modular Reactors...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Electricity Generating Portfolios with Small Modular Reactors Electricity Generating Portfolios with Small Modular Reactors This paper provides a method for estimating the ...

  7. Renewables Portfolio Standards | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Waste Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Electric Coal with CCS Energy Storage Nuclear Wind Natural Gas Yes Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (Pennsylvania) Renewables Portfolio...

  8. Renewables Portfolio Standard | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Waste Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Electric Coal with CCS Energy Storage Nuclear Wind Natural Gas Yes Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (Pennsylvania) Renewables Portfolio...

  9. Government Performance Result Act (GPRA) / Portfolio Decision...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Government Performance Result Act (GPRA) Portfolio Decision Support (PDS) Government Performance Result Act (GPRA) Portfolio Decision Support (PDS) 2009 DOE Hydrogen Program...

  10. Section 3: Office Portfolio Management, Bioenergy Technologies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Portfolio Management 3-1 Last revised: March 2015 Section 3: Office Portfolio Management This section describes how the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Bioenergy Technologies ...

  11. Renewable Portfolio Standard | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Renewable Portfolio Standard (Redirected from Renewable Portfolio Standards) Jump to: navigation, search TODO: Attach these values to individual state pages, as semantic...

  12. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January ...

  13. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Environmental Management Portfolio...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Ridge Office of Environmental Management (OREM) East Tennessee Technology Park Portfolio Plan Jim Kopotic Portfolio Federal Project Director East Tennessee Technology Park...

  14. Annual Report: EPAct Complementary Program's Ultra-Deepwater R&D Portfolio and Unconventional Resources R&D Portfolio (30 September 2012)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,; Rose, Kelly; Hakala, Alexandra; Guthrie, George

    2012-09-30

    body of work is to build the scientific understanding and assessment tools necessary to develop the confidence that key domestic oil and gas resources can be produced safely and in an environmentally sustainable way. For the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with exploration and production in extreme offshore environments. This includes: (1) using experimental studies to improve understanding of key parameters (e.g., properties and behavior of materials) tied to loss-of-control events in deepwater settings, (2) compiling data on spatial variability for key properties used to characterize and simulate the natural and engineered components involved in extreme offshore settings, and (3) utilizing findings from (1) and (2) in conjunction with integrated assessment models to model worst-case scenarios, as well as assessments of most likely scenarios relative to potential risks associated with flow assurance and loss of control. This portfolio and approach is responsive to key Federal-scale initiatives including the Ocean Energy Safety Advisory Committee (OESC). In particular, the findings and recommendations of the OESC's Spill Prevention Subcommittee are addressed by aspects of the Complementary Program research. The Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio is also aligned with some of the goals of the United States- Department of the Interior (US-DOI) led Alaska Interagency Working Group (AIWG) which brings together state, federal, and tribal government personnel in relation to energy-related issues and needs in the Alaskan Arctic. For the Unconventional Fossil Resources Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a sufficient scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with the oil/gas resources in shale reservoirs that require hydraulic fracturing and/or other engineering measures to produce. The major areas of focus

  15. Capstone Workshop Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Capstone Workshop Portfolio Capstone Workshop Portfolio Capstone Workshop Portfolio Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review Capstone Workshop (6.02 MB) More Documents & Publications Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review Capstone Workshop Agenda Quadrennial Technology Review Workshop Portfolios Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review Capstone Workshop Agenda

  16. Need for an Integrated Risk Model

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    and collaboration on the use of an integrated risk model at sites * To propose a test case for use of a sample case 10222008 p. 3, LA-UR 11-06023 Observations * SAFER...

  17. Guam- Renewable Energy Portfolio Goal

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Guam Bill 166 enacted in March 2008, established a renewable energy portfolio goal of 25% renewable energy by 2035.* Under this law, each utility that sells electricity for consumption on Guam mu...

  18. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  19. Supervisory Loan Specialist (Portfolio Manager)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE's Loans Programs Office portfolio consists of very large, limited-recourse project finance and corporate loans used for the construction of innovative energy technology projects such as...

  20. International Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Emerging Technologies » International Portfolio International Portfolio U.S.-China Partnership U.S.-China Partnership Through the CERC-Building Energy Efficiency consortium, the U.S. and China are researching building energy efficiency technologies and practices that will signficantly reduce building energy consumption in both countries. U.S.-India Partnership U.S.-India Partnership Together, the U.S. and India are conducting collaborative research and development that results in measurable and

  1. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model - DOE Directives, Delegations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model by Website Administrator The Enterprise Risk Management Model is a new standardized framework that the Department will be using to develop,...

  2. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for ...

  3. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.

    2012-07-01

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  4. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPAs new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  5. 2016 Project Portfolio: Solid-State Lighting

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    PROJECT PORTFOLIO: SOLID-STATE LIGHTING January 2016 DOE Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio January 2016 i Executive Summary The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) partners with ...

  6. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  7. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  8. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  9. Research Portfolio Report Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources: Subsurface Geology and Engineering DOENETL-20151691 ... Research Portfolio Report: Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources Executive Summary S ...

  10. Renewable Portfolio Standards Resources | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Renewable Portfolio Standards Resources Renewable Portfolio Standards Resources An RPS is a regulatory method mandating utility companies operating within a certain jurisdiction to increase production of energy from renewable sources such as wind, solar, biomass and other alternatives to fossil and nuclear electric generation. It's also known as a renewable electricity standard. Find renewable portfolio standards resources below. DOE Resource Renewable Portfolio Standards: A Factual Introduction

  11. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool.

  12. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM) - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs

  13. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tools design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  14. Projected Benefits of EERE’s Portfolio. FY 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2011-11-17

    This collection of data tables and charts shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  15. EERE Portfolio. Primary Benefits Metrics for FY09

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-11-01

    This collection of data tables shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for both the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies as well as the individual technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  16. Enterprise Risk Management Model - DOE Directives, Delegations, and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Requirements Model by Website Administrator PDF document icon Enterprise_Risk_Management_Model.pdf - PDF document, 863 KB (884517

  17. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program. 41156.pdf (1.37 MB) More Documents & Publications U.S. DOE Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Webinar Presentation Geothermal

  18. Current Portfolio Awardees | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Small Business Innovation Research » Current Portfolio Awardees Current Portfolio Awardees View the current portfolio of Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer awardees below. Learn more about the program phases. View the FY2016 EERE Phase I Awardees View the EERE SBIR FY 2016 Phase II award selections Technology-to-Market Home About the Technology-to-Market Program Cleantech University Prize Energy Transition Initiative Lab-Corps Small Business Innovation

  19. VTO Analysis Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VTO Analysis Portfolio VTO Analysis Portfolio 2013 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting van000_ward_2013_o.pdf (445.08 KB) More Documents & Publications Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Overview of VTO Analysis Program Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Overview of VTO Analysis Program

  20. Small Buildings Small Portfolio Commercial Upstream Incentive...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Financing Turnkey Efficiency Solutions for Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Staged Upgrades as a Strategy for Residential Energy Efficiency Strategies for Marketing and Driving ...

  1. Electricity Generating Portfolios with Small Modular Reactors

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A paper by Geoffrey Rothwell, Ph.D., Stanford University (retired), and Francesco Ganda, Ph.D., Argonne National Laboratory on "Electricity Generating Portfolios with Small Modular Reactors".

  2. Renewables Portfolio Standards | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solid Waste Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Electric Coal with CCS Energy Storage Nuclear Wind Natural Gas Yes Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (Pennsylvania) Renewables...

  3. Fuel Cells and Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presented at the Clean Energy States Alliance and U.S. Department of Energy Webinar: Fuel Cells and Renewable Portfolio Standards, June 9, 2011.

  4. Renewable Portfolio Standard | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Fuels Program Info Sector Name State Website http:www.nmprc.state.nm.usutilitiesrenewable-energy.html State New Mexico Program Type Renewables Portfolio Standard Summary...

  5. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool.

  6. Research Portfolio Report Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Produced Water Treatment & Management Cover image: Western Research Institute treating and reusing coal-bed methane (CBM) pro- duced water. Research Portfolio Report Unconventional ...

  7. City of Columbia- Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In November 2004, voters in Columbia, Missouri, approved* a proposal to adopt a local renewable portfolio standard (RPS). (The state renewable electricity standard adopted by ballot initiative in...

  8. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 9 PDF icon grandchallengesportfoliopg9.pdf More Documents & Publications ...

  9. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    8 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 8 PDF icon grandchallengesportfoliopg8.pdf More Documents & Publications ...

  10. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 6 PDF icon grandchallengesportfoliopg6.pdf More Documents & Publications ...

  11. PNNL: Codes Portfolio - 2015 Peer Review | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Codes Portfolio - 2015 Peer Review PNNL: Codes Portfolio - 2015 Peer Review Presenter: Bing Liu, PNNL View the Presentation PNNL: Codes Portfolio - 2015 Peer Review (3.13 MB) More ...

  12. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  13. Selling an Energy Efficiency Loan Portfolio in Oregon: Resale of the Craft3 loan portfolio to Self-Help Credit Union

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Peter; Borgeson, Merrian; Kramer, Chris; Zimring, Mark; Goldman, Charles

    2014-05-30

    Under the Clean Energy Works (CEW) program, Craft3 developed a loan product that widened access to financing for homeowners, offered long term funding, and collected repayments through the customer?s utility bill. The program?s success led Craft3 to pursue the sale of the loan portfolio to both mitigate its own risks and replenish funds for lending. This sale breaks new ground for energy efficiency finance and is notable as it was completed even with many novel program design elements. It replenished Craft3?s program capital and uncovered some valuable lessons that may facilitate future transactions. However, the lack of data history and the unproven nature of the loan portfolio meant that Craft3 had to limit the risk of losses to Self-Help, the purchaser of the portfolio. It remains to be seen whether this experience will pave the way for more sales of on-bill energy efficiency loan portfolios. This case study illustrates how certain program design decisions can sometimes both facilitate programmatic objectives and possibly present challenges for the sale of a portfolio of energy efficiency loans.

  14. Leveraging Portfolio Manager for Disclosure and Green Leasing...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Portfolio Manager for Disclosure and Green Leasing Practices Leveraging Portfolio Manager for Disclosure and Green Leasing Practices A talk about developing paths and implementing ...

  15. 2014 Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio 2014 Solid-State Lighting Project Portfolio This report contains an overview of SSL projects currently funded by DOE, and those completed. ...

  16. Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) White Paper, April 2009 Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) White ...

  17. ITP Energy Intensive Processes: Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry ITP Energy Intensive Processes: Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key ...

  18. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress ...

  19. Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. ...

  20. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    State North Carolina Program Type Renewables Portfolio Standard Summary North Carolina's Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS), established by Senate...

  1. Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    & Renewable Portfolio Standards Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards Presented at the Clean Energy States Alliance and U.S. Department of Energy Webinar: Fuel Cells and ...

  2. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Concentrating Solar Power 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals ...

  3. Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Overview - 2014 BTO Peer...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Small Portfolios Overview - 2014 BTO Peer Review Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Overview - 2014 BTO Peer Review Presenter: Glenn Schatz, U.S. Department of Energy This ...

  4. PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review This is a report from the Peer Review Panel on activities within the Planning, Analysis and Evaluation ...

  5. Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics Revitalizing ...

  6. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Storage Components and Systems Batteries Electric Drive Systems Hydrogen Materials & Components Compatibility Hydrogen Behavior Quantitative Risk Assessment Technical ...

  7. Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma Jin; Song Qingshuo; Xu Jing; Zhang Jianfeng

    2013-06-15

    In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.

  8. Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio Webinar

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio October 26, 2015 Nichole Fitzgerald Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Agenda * Introduction and BETO Overview - Erica Qiao, BCS, Incorporated - Nichole Fitzgerald, Technology Manager, Bioenergy Technologies Office * Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio - Nichole Fitzgerald - Dennis Hall, Director, The Ohio State University Bioproducts Innovation Center (OBIC) - Kate Lewis, Deputy Program Manager, U.S.

  9. Impacts of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2002-01-01

    This service report addresses the renewable portfolio standard provision of S. 1766. At Senator Murkowski's request it also includes an analysis of the impacts of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) patterned after the one called for in S. 1766, but where the required share is based on a 20% RPS by 2020 rather than the 10% RPS called for in S. 1766.

  10. SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solar Energy Technologies Office

    2014-05-01

    The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot’s five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot’s project portfolio as of May 2014.

  11. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to navigate the new Portfolio Manager, add a property and enter details about it, enter energy and water consumption data, and more.

  12. Benchmarking Outreach and Data Collection Techniques for External Portfolios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation contains information on Benchmarking Outreach and Data Collection Techniques for External Portfolios.

  13. Government Performance Result Act (GPRA) / Portfolio Decision...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    sizing and control strategy tuning New Powertrain Configurations Monte-Carlo Risk Analysis Detailed models required to represent future technologies 18 Summary GPRAPDS...

  14. N. Mariana Islands- Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands enacted its Renewables Portfolio Standard in September 2007, in which a certain percentage of its net electricity sales must come from renewable e...

  15. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Continue to learn about EPAs new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  16. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to...

  17. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  18. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  19. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn the more advanced functionalities, such as managing and...

  20. Impacts of a 15% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2007-01-01

    This analysis responds to a request from Senator Jeff Bingaman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring that 15% of U.S. electricity sales be derived from qualifying renewable energy resources.

  1. Small Business Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Small Business Portfolio Small Business Portfolio California-based Heliotrope is one of many small businesses that have been supported by the Energy Department’s SBIR’s program. | Heliotrope Technologies California-based Heliotrope is one of many small businesses that have been supported by the Energy Department's SBIR's program. | Heliotrope Technologies The federal government supports research at thousands of small innovative businesses through the Small Business Innovation Research

  2. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to navigate Portfolio Manager, add a property and enter details about it, enter energy and water consumption data, and more. This webinar runs from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

  3. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book PortfolioThumb.jpg The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. The complete 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book is available for download, as well as individual sections.

  4. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  5. Impact Evaluation Plan for the Site-Specific Savings Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the Site-Specific Savings Portfolio SBW Consulting, Inc. iii 4.5. Site-Specific Savings Analysis ......

  6. Benefits Analysis for DOE Energy Technology Portfolio Assessment: Background

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beschen, Darrell

    2006-12-20

    A presentation for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review on benefits analysis for the DOE energy technology portfolio assessment.

  7. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy VTO Analysis Portfolio Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio Presentation given by U.S. Department of Energy at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting providing an overview of the Vehicle Technologies Office Analysis Portfolio. vto_2014_van_overview.pdf (1.69 MB) More Documents & Publications VTO Analysis Portfolio Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review

  8. Webinar: Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio Webinar |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio Webinar Webinar: Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio Webinar Webinar: Bioproducts in the Federal Bioeconomy Portfolio Webinar bioproducts_webinar_master_20151026.pdf (3.52 MB) More Documents & Publications Green Jobs in the U.S. Bioeconomy Federal Activities Report on the Bioeconomy January 2014 News Blast

  9. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager® Office Hours, Focus Topic: Portfolio Manager 2015 Priorities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  10. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn the more advanced functionalities, such as managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time, using spreadsheet templates to update property data, setting goals and targets to plan energy improvements for properties, generating and using custom reports, and using the Sustainable Buildings Checklist.

  11. SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio Overview

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    These slides correspond to a presentation given by SunShot Initiative Director Minh Le at the 2014 SunShot Grand Challenge Summit and Peer Review in Anaheim, CA. This presentation is an overview of the SunShot Initiative's research portfolio.

  12. Renewable Portfolio Standards Benefits and Impacts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Please join us for a free webinar summarizing key findings from a recent report published jointly by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that evaluates the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies.

  13. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  14. Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David G. Hoel, PhD

    2012-04-19

    The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

  15. Small Buildings and Small Portfolios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    programs for small building energy efficiency (NRELANL) 8 Cooperative Agreements In 2013, DOE funded six cooperative agreements that explore innovative models for engaging small ...

  16. Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards Webinar - Jun 9 th , 2011 Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition * Mission - The Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition is a united group of industry, academic, and government leaders working collectively to strengthen Ohio's fuel cell industry and to accelerate the transformation of industry to global leadership in fuel cell technology and applications * Activities - Networking and Collaboration - Education - Marketing and Communications - Advocacy

  17. Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    September 2007 | Department of Energy CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007 Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007 The recent development of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) has helped spur the growth of renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and biomass power. This report aims to determine the barriers to CHP that exist within state RPS programs, and suggest ways to minimize or remove such

  18. Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Across U.S. Industry | Department of Energy Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry eip_report_pg9.pdf (2.52 MB) More Documents & Publications ITP Energy Intensive Processes: Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry Energy Technology Solutions Energy Technology Solutions: Public-Private

  19. Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Utility Energy Service Contracts » Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts Building a diversified project portfolio enhances utility energy service contracts (UESCs) to ensure Federal agencies get the best value possible. Energy efficiency measures are inherent in UESC projects. However, do not overlook the possibility for renewable energy and water efficiency and other

  20. NREL: State and Local Governments - Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Portfolio Standards Map of the United States showing 16 states with solar RPS provisions in red, 2 states with solar or DG goals in orange, and 6 states with solar water heating provisions marked with a water drop. Enlarge image States with renewable portfolio standardpolicies that include solar or distributed generation provisions, as of March 2013. Map from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) A renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is a regulatory mandate to

  1. Cross-State Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Cross-State Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance Cross-State Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance This analysis provides first-ever assessment of the extent to which renewable energy is crossing state borders to be used to meet renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. Two primary methods for data collection are Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) tracking and power flow estimates. Data from regional REC tracking systems, state agencies, and utility compliance reports help understand

  2. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    101 ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101 August 23, 2016 1:00PM to 2:00PM EDT Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to navigate Portfolio Manager, add a property and enter details about it, enter energy and water consumption data, and more.

  3. ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager® Guidance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager is an online tool you can use to measure and track energy and water consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and benchmark the performance of ...

  4. Research Portfolio Report Small Producers: Environment and Water...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Environment and Water Management Cover image: Stored Wyoming Roll-out mats after unloading from truck. Research Portfolio Report Small Producers: Environment and Water Management ...

  5. NASA's Composite Portfolio: Department of Energy Workshop Fiber...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NASA 's Composites Portfolio Department of Energy Workshop Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites Manufacturing Presented by: John Vickers January 13, 2014 www.nasa.gov...

  6. The Federal Guiding Principles Checklist in ENERGY STAR Portfolio

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This webcast will teach Federal energy and sustainability professionals how to use the ENERGY STAR measurement and tracking tool, Portfolio Manager, to help ensure compliance with the Guiding...

  7. Renewable Energy used in State Renewable Portfolio Standards...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    from reduced greenhouse gas emissions and 5.2 billion from reductions in other air pollution, in mid-range estimates, for state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies ...

  8. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  9. Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio SunShot Initiative_Tackling Challenges in Solar_2014 Portfolio.pdf (8.3 MB) More Documents & Publications 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration

  10. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    11 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda 2011 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda Agenda for the CHP Industrial Distributed ...

  11. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Summary Report 2011 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Summary Report Summary report of the 2011 ...

  12. Evaluating a Proposed 20% National Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logan, J.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.; Bird, L.; James, T. L.; Shah, M. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the impacts of a proposed 20% national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) by 2021, which has been advanced in the U.S. Congress by Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico. The paper was prepared before the America Recovery and Reinvestment Act was signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009, and thus does not consider important changes in renewable energy (RE) policy that need to be addressed in follow-on analysis. We use NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate the impacts of the RPS requirements on the energy sector and consider design issues associated with renewable energy certificate (REC) trading markets.

  13. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

  14. Modeling human risk: Cell & molecular biology in context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-06-01

    It is anticipated that early in the next century manned missions into outer space will occur, with a mission to Mars scheduled between 2015 and 2020. However, before such missions can be undertaken, a realistic estimation of the potential risks to the flight crews is required. One of the uncertainties remaining in this risk estimation is that posed by the effects of exposure to the radiation environment of outer space. Although the composition of this environment is fairly well understood, the biological effects arising from exposure to it are not. The reasons for this are three-fold: (1) A small but highly significant component of the radiation spectrum in outer space consists of highly charged, high energy (HZE) particles which are not routinely experienced on earth, and for which there are insufficient data on biological effects; (2) Most studies on the biological effects of radiation to date have been high-dose, high dose-rate, whereas in space, with the exception of solar particle events, radiation exposures will be low-dose, low dose-rate; (3) Although it has been established that the virtual absence of gravity in space has a profound effect on human physiology, it is not clear whether these effects will act synergistically with those of radiation exposure. A select panel will evaluate the utilizing experiments and models to accurately predict the risks associated with exposure to HZE particles. Topics of research include cellular and tissue response, health effects associated with radiation damage, model animal systems, and critical markers of Radiation response.

  15. State Clean Energy Practices: Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurlbut, D.

    2008-07-01

    The State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA) project is supported by the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program within the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. This project seeks to quantify the impacts of existing state policies, and to identify crucial policy attributes and their potential applicability to other states. The goal is to assist states in determining which clean energy policies or policy portfolios will best accomplish their environmental, economic, and security goals. For example, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandates an increase in the use of wind, solar, biomass, and other alternatives to fossil and nuclear electric generation. This paper provides a summary of the policy objectives that commonly drive the establishment of an RPS, the key issues that states have encountered in implementing an RPS, and the strategies that some of the leading states have followed to address implementation challenges. The factors that help an RPS function best generally have been explored in other analyses. This study complements others by comparing empirical outcomes, and identifying the policies that appear to have the greatest impact on results.

  16. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-08-10

    Markets for renewable energy have historically been motivated primarily by policy efforts, but a less widely recognized driver is poised to also play a major role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Resource planning has re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, the most recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions--primarily coming from wind power--are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. This report examines how twelve western utilities treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. Our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to identify methodological/modeling issues, and suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. Here we summarize the key findings of the report, beginning with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities, an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities' analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

  17. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot’s five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot’s project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Program Manager Dr. Rebecca Jones-Albertus providing an overview of SunShot’s work in the photovoltaics (PV) subprogram, as well as a description of every active PV project in the portfolio.

  18. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Concentrating Solar Power 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Program Manager Dr. Ranga Pitchumani providing an

  19. SunShot Portfolio Technology Area Overviews | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SunShot Portfolio Technology Area Overviews SunShot Portfolio Technology Area Overviews May 20, 2014 3:30PM to 4:30PM PDT Pacific Ballroom These sessions will offer a high level overview of the SunShot's Initiative's project portfolio, including each individual subprogram area. Soft Costs While recent technological advances have drastically reduced the cost of solar hardware, the non-hardware "soft" costs-such as permitting, financing, and customer acquisition-are becoming an

  20. Assistant Director, Credit Modeling and Transaction Risk Management Division

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Management Division (RMD) is the group within the U.S. Department of Energys Loan Program Office (LPO) that is responsible for oversight of all risks that have the potential to impede the...

  1. Modeling radiation pneumonitis risk with clinical, dosimetric, and spatial parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hope, Andrew J.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; El Naqa, Issam; Alaly, James R.; Vicic, Milos; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Deasy, Joseph O. . E-mail: jdeasy@radonc.wustl.edu

    2006-05-01

    Purpose: To determine the clinical, dosimetric, and spatial parameters that correlate with radiation pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: Patients treated with high-dose radiation for non-small-cell lung cancer with three-dimensional treatment planning were reviewed for clinical information and radiation pneumonitis (Rp) events. Three-dimensional treatment plans for 219 eligible patients were recovered. Treatment plan information, including parameters defining tumor position and dose-volume parameters, was extracted from non-heterogeneity-corrected dose distributions. Correlation to RP events was assessed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (R). Mathematical models were generated that correlate with RP. Results: Of 219 patients, 52 required treatment for RP (median interval, 142 days). Tumor location was the most highly correlated parameter on univariate analysis (R = 0.24). Multiple dose-volume parameters were correlated with RP. Models most frequently selected by bootstrap resampling included tumor position, maximum dose, and D{sub 35} (minimum dose to the 35% volume receiving the highest doses) (R 0.28). The most frequently selected two- or three-parameter models outperformed commonly used metrics, including V{sub 2} (fractional volume of normal lung receiving >20 Gy) and mean lung dose (R = 0.18). Conclusions: Inferior tumor position was highly correlated with pneumonitis events within our population. Models that account for inferior tumor position and dosimetric information, including both high- and low-dose regions (D{sub 35}, International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements maximum dose), risk-stratify patients more accurately than any single dosimetric or clinical parameter.

  2. Chapter 1: Estimating prospective benefits of EERE's portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  3. Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-12-01

    Summary report of the Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review. The purpose of the review was for project recipients to report on their project goals, approach, and results to date.

  4. New Study: Renewable Energy for State Renewable Portfolio Standards...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A new study estimates that 2.2 billion in benefits come from reduced greenhouse gas emissions and 5.2 billion from reductions in other air pollution for state renewable portfolio ...

  5. Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research and development (r&d) portfolio for energy-Intensive Processes (eIP) addresses the top technology opportunities to save energy and reduce carbon emissions across the ...

  6. EPA ENERGY STAR Webinar: ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Continue to learn about EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time; using...

  7. Renewables Portfolio Standards and Goals | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Renewables Portfolio Standards and Goals Jump to: navigation, search This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgw...

  8. Wendy Cain named portfolio federal project director for ETTP cleanup

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management has named Wendy Cain as its new portfolio federal project director for cleanup of the East Tennessee Technology Park.

  9. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    201 ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201 December 16, 2015 1:00PM to 2:00PM EST Online This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY...

  10. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 301 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    301 ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 301 December 17, 2015 1:00PM to 2:00PM EST Online Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will...

  11. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 301 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Webinar: Portfolio Manager 301 ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 301 August 25, 2016 1:00PM to 2:00PM EDT Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will show attendees how to upload templates to update property data, setting goals and targets to plan energy improvements for properties, creating custom reports, and using the Sustainable Buildings Checklist. Register for this webinar

  12. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    201 ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201 August 24, 2016 1:00PM to 2:00PM EDT This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn the more advanced functionalities, such as managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time, using spreadsheet templates to update property data, setting goals and targets to plan energy improvements for properties, generating and using custom reports, and using

  13. Energy Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance While

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Deploying Innovation | Department of Energy Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance While Deploying Innovation Energy Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance While Deploying Innovation November 12, 2014 - 4:36pm Addthis Graphic by <a href="/node/379579">Sarah Gerrity</a>, Energy Department. Graphic by Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department. Peter W. Davidson Peter W. Davidson Former Executive Director of the Loan Programs Office (LPO) At the

  14. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 14-001

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mod 323 Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 14-001 Statement of Work - 1 - Title: AMRP PBS 41 - Project Management / Project Controls Support Revision Number: 0 Date: September 17, 2013 Start: October 1, 2013 Finish: September 30, 2014 1.0 DESCRIPTION Mission Support Alliance (MSA) Portfolio Management (PFM) will provide the following project management/project controls support services as described below. The services will be performed in accordance with Contract DE-AC06-09RL14728,

  15. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  16. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program. ...

  17. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress ...

  18. Building Technologies Program Multi-Year Program Plan Program Portfolio Management 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2008-01-01

    Building Technologies Program Multi-Year Program Plan 2008 for program portfolio management, including the program portfolio management process, program analysis, performance assessment, stakeholder interactions, and cross-cutting issues.

  19. Federal Investment in Coal as Part of a Clean Energy Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Federal Investment in Coal as Part of a Clean Energy Portfolio Federal Investment in Coal as Part of a Clean Energy Portfolio The Administration's FY 2017 budget supports a ...

  20. Peer Review of the Federal Energy Management Program Energy-Efficient Product Procurement Portfolio

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document details the peer review of the Federal Energy Management Program Energy-Efficient Product Procurement portfolio.

  1. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review- Summary Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Summary report of the Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review providing presentation summaries, closing remarks, and agenda

  2. ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing Processes and Applications to Accelerate Commercial Use of Nanomaterials, January 2011

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio highlighting projects that seek to make improvements in a broad range of energy production, storage, and consumption applications.

  3. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Introducing Waste & Materials Tracking in Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Manager | Department of Energy Introducing Waste & Materials Tracking in Portfolio Manager ENERGY STAR Webinar: Introducing Waste & Materials Tracking in Portfolio Manager August 18, 2016 2:00PM to 3:30PM EDT Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will show how to track your building's waste and materials management. It will introduce the types of waste and disposal methods attendees can track, new metrics and reports, and how you can

  4. Maximizing the U.S. Army’s Future Contribution to Global Security Using the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Scott J.; Edwards, Shatiel B.; Teper, Gerald E.; Bassett, David G.; McCarthy, Michael J.; Johnson, Scott C.; Lawton, Craig R.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Shelton, Liliana; Henry, Stephen M.; et al

    2016-02-01

    We report that recent budget reductions have posed tremendous challenges to the U.S. Army in managing its portfolio of ground combat systems (tanks and other fighting vehicles), thus placing many important programs at risk. To address these challenges, the Army and a supporting team developed and applied the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT) to optimally invest in ground combat modernization over the next 25–35 years. CPAT provides the Army with the analytical rigor needed to help senior Army decision makers allocate scarce modernization dollars to protect soldiers and maintain capability overmatch. CPAT delivers unparalleled insight into multiple-decade modernization planning usingmore » a novel multiphase mixed-integer linear programming technique and illustrates a cultural shift toward analytics in the Army’s acquisition thinking and processes. CPAT analysis helped shape decisions to continue modernization of the $10 billion Stryker family of vehicles (originally slated for cancellation) and to strategically reallocate over $20 billion to existing modernization programs by not pursuing the Ground Combat Vehicle program as originally envisioned. Ultimately, more than 40 studies have been completed using CPAT, applying operations research methods to optimally prioritize billions of taxpayer dollars and allowing Army acquisition executives to base investment decisions on analytically rigorous evaluations of portfolio trade-offs.« less

  5. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  6. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy 1 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda Agenda for the CHP/ Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review meeting held in Washington, D.C. on June 1-2, 2011. portfolio_review_2011_06_agenda.pdf (196.57 KB) More Documents & Publications 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Summary Report Advance Patent Waiver W(A)2010-065

  7. ERDA's portfolio: solar add-on device construction manuals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barron, J.J.; Cole, W.J.

    1981-01-01

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (ERDA) has developed a portfolio of eight (8) instructional manuals for the construction of the following solar add-on devices: thermosiphoning hot water system; standard domestic hot water system; bread box type hot water system; add-on greenhouse space heating system (with mass); add-on sunspace space heating system (without mass); thermosiphoning air panel space heating system; fan assisted air panel space heating system; Trombe wall space heating system. In addition to step-by-step instructions and illustrations of device construction, each manual contains a list of materials and specifications (including estimated costs in 1980 dollars and sources of supply), guidelines for appropriate siting and installation, and energy performance estimates under optimal and non-optimal conditions. This portfolio of solar add-on devices is directed toward the do-it-yourself homeowner, builders and home improvement contractors, and weatherization organizations. Each instruction manual is a complete, self-contained module suitable for distribution separately or as part of the portfolio. Each manual also has an educational module associated with it including color slides, which is designed for use by community colleges, industrial high schools and adult educational programs. An outline is presented of the content of the design packages,as well as a description of ERDA's plans for distribution of the designs and educating the public on their use, and information on how to obtain individual construction manuals or the entire portfolio.

  8. Microsoft Word - ts-2016 REE Portfolio Final v4.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rare Earth Elements Program 2 0 1 6 P R O J E C T P O R T F O L I O 2 Disclaimer This portfolio was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States ...

  9. Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Overview- 2014 BTO Peer Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Glenn Schatz, U.S. Department of Energy This presentation at the 2014 Peer Review provided an overview of the Building Technologies Office's Small Buildings and Small Portfolios activities. Through robust feedback, the BTO Program Peer Review enhances existing efforts and improves future designs.

  10. Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Building a diversified project portfolio enhances utility energy service contracts (UESCs) to ensure Federal agencies get the best value possible. Energy efficiency measures are inherent in UESC projects. However, do not overlook the possibility for renewable energy and water efficiency and other conservation measures.

  11. Co-benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) Screening Model | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.epa.govstatelocalclimateresourcescobra.html Cost: Free Related Tools Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) Model Simple...

  12. Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

    2009-05-27

    The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

  13. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operators ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  14. Risk-based maintenance modeling. Prioritization of maintenance importances and quantification of maintenance effectiveness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vesely, W.E.; Rezos, J.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes methods for prioritizing the risk importances of maintenances using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Approaches then are described for quantifying their reliability and risk effects. Two different PRA importance measures, minimal cutset importances and risk reduction importances, were used to prioritize maintenances; the findings show that both give similar results if appropriate criteria are used. The justifications for the particular importance measures also are developed. The methods developed to quantify the reliability and risk effects of maintenance actions are extensions of the usual reliability models now used in PRAs. These extended models consider degraded states of the component, and quantify the benefits of maintenance in correcting degradations and preventing failures. The negative effects of maintenance, including downtimes, also are included. These models are specific types of Markov models. The data for these models can be obtained from plant maintenance logs and from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). To explore the potential usefulness of these models, the authors analyzed a range of postulated values of input data. These models were used to examine maintenance effects on a components reliability and performance for various maintenance programs and component data. Maintenance schedules were analyzed to optimize the component`s availability. In specific cases, the effects of maintenance were found to be large.

  15. Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foye, Kevin C.; Soong, Te-Yang

    2012-07-01

    The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the waste mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific

  16. Retrospective on the Seniors' Council Tier 1 LDRD portfolio.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ballard, William Parker

    2012-04-01

    This report describes the Tier 1 LDRD portfolio, administered by the Seniors Council between 2003 and 2011. 73 projects were sponsored over the 9 years of the portfolio at a cost of $10.5 million which includes $1.9M of a special effort in directed innovation targeted at climate change and cyber security. Two of these Tier 1 efforts were the seeds for the Grand Challenge LDRDs in Quantum Computing and Next Generation Photovoltaic conversion. A few LDRDs were terminated early when it appeared clear that the research was not going to succeed. A great many more were successful and led to full Tier 2 LDRDs or direct customer sponsorship. Over a dozen patents are in various stages of prosecution from this work, and one project is being submitted for an R and D 100 award.

  17. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of State Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Mills, Andrew; Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-07

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic, risk reduction, and environmental effects. This article synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 31 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost-impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 20 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the projected costs of state RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, evaluate the reasonableness of key input assumptions, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analyses. We conclude that while there is considerable uncertainty in the study results, the majority of the studies project modest cost impacts. Seventy percent of the state RPS cost studies project retail electricity rate increases of no greater than one percent. Nonetheless, there is considerable room for improving the analytic methods, and therefore accuracy, of these estimates.

  18. Research Portfolio Report Ultra-Deepwater: Surface Systems and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Surface Systems and Umbilicals (Wellbore Stability) Research Portfolio Report Ultra-Deepwater: Surface Systems and Umbilicals (Wellbore Stability) DOE/NETL-2015/1696 Prepared by: Mari Nichols-Haining, Jennifer Funk, John Oelfke, and Christine Rueter KeyLogic Systems, Inc. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Contact: James Ammer james.ammer@netl.doe.gov Contract DE-FE0004003 Activity 4003.200.03 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the

  19. Research Portfolio Report Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources:

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Air, Wellbore Integrity & Induced Seismicity Cover image: NETL's Mobile Air Monitoring Laboratory. Research Portfolio Report Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources: Air, Wellbore Integrity & Induced Seismicity DOE/NETL-2015/1693 Prepared by: Mari Nichols-Haining, Jennifer Funk, and Christine Rueter KeyLogic Systems, Inc. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Contact: James Ammer james.ammer@netl.doe.gov Contract DE-FE0004003 Activity 4003.200.03 DISCLAIMER This report was

  20. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Supplement to

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On June 10, 2003, Senator Pete Domenici, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested additional analysis of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), expected to be proposed as an amendment to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. This request asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide additional results from two previously released EIA analyses of the proposed legislation, and to conduct further analyses with modified assumptions.

  1. FY18 Agency IT Portfolio Summary Guidance | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    FY16 Budget Rollout Fact Sheet FY16 Budget Rollout Fact Sheet Download the fact sheet below to read the full highlights of the President's FY 2016 Budget for the Department of Energy, which provides $30 billion to support the Department in the areas of nuclear security, clean energy, environmental cleanup, climate change response, science and innovation. This includes: Supporting a nearly $5 billion all-of-the-above transformational research and development portfolio in critical energy

  2. 2011 Industrial Distributed Energy and CHP R&D Portfolio Review |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Technical Assistance » Combined Heat & Power Deployment » 2011 Industrial Distributed Energy and CHP R&D Portfolio Review 2011 Industrial Distributed Energy and CHP R&D Portfolio Review The Advanced Manufacturing Office met with research partners in June 2011 to review the status of projects in the Combined Heat and Power (CHP)/Industrial Distributed Energy portfolio. An agenda, summary report, and the following presentations from the meeting are available

  3. ITP Industrial Distributed Energy: Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Draft White Paper Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards Prepared for: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC and Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN Prepared by: Resource Dynamics Corporation McLean, VA www.rdcnet.com September 2007 Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards The recent development of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) has helped spur the growth of renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and

  4. Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Nuclear Projects | Department of Energy Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects December 10, 2014 - 9:00am Addthis Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects Peter W. Davidson Peter W. Davidson Former Executive Director of the Loan Programs Office (LPO) This morning, the Department announced that it is

  5. Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) White Paper, April 2009

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    EPA CHP Partnership’s white paper provides information on energy portfolio standards and how they promote combined heat and power.

  6. Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio - Follow-up

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2007-01-01

    This analysis responds to a request from Senator Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy portfolio standard (CEPS).

  7. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in Solar Energy The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. 2014_SunShot_Initiative_Portfolio8.13.14.pdf (2.29 MB) More Documents

  8. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Introduction | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Introduction 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Introduction The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Director Minh Le, as well as an introduction section offering an

  9. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The components fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRCs ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  10. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  11. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  12. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, Lori; Chapman, Caroline; Logan, Jeff; Sumner, Jenny; Short, Walter

    2010-05-01

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  13. Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, E.; Keisler, J.; Chon, H.

    2008-11-17

    In this project we have completed, or are in the process of, collecting and analyzing information on seven energy technologies solar photovoltaics, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, electricity from biomass, liquid bio-fuels, and batteries in regards to their potential impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have collected expert elicitations, relating U.S. government funding trajectories to probabilities of success. We then used MiniCAM, a technologically-detailed Integrated Assessnent Model to determine the impact on the marginal cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if the technologies were successful. Finally, we have performed initial analysis on portfolios of technologies. This project has partially supported nine papers, either published, under review, or under preparation for such journals as Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, Climatic Change, Management Science, and Transportation Research.

  14. Research Portfolio Report Small Producers: Operations/Improved Recovery

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Small Producers: Operations/Improved Recovery Cover image: Drill rigs and pump jacks are some typical tools used in natural gas and oil opera- tions and for improved recovery Research Portfolio Report Small Producers: Operations/Improved Recovery DOE/NETL-2015/1698 Prepared by: Mari Nichols-Haining and Christine Rueter KeyLogic Systems, Inc. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Contact: James Ammer james.ammer@netl.doe.gov Contract DE-FE0004003 Activity 4003.200.03 DISCLAIMER This report

  15. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Addendum

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

  16. Microsoft Word - ts-2016 REE Portfolio Final v4.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rare Earth Elements Program 2 0 1 6 P R O J E C T P O R T F O L I O 2 Disclaimer This portfolio was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use

  17. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

  18. Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene ); McDonald, John P. ); Taira, Randal Y. ); Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

    1999-12-01

    Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool.

  19. Industry Research and Recommendations for Small Buildings and Small Portfolios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langner, Rois; Hendron, Bob; Pless, Shanti; Huppert, Mark; Cochrane, Ric

    2013-12-01

    Small buildings have been left behind in the energy efficiency marketplace because financial and technical resources have flowed to larger commercial buildings. DOE's Building Technologies Office works with the commercial building industry to accelerate the uptake of energy efficiency technologies and techniques in existing and new commercial buildings (DOE 2013). BTO recognizes the SBSP sector'spotential for significant energy savings and the need for investments in resources that are tailored to this sector's unique needs. The industry research and recommendations described in this report identify potential approaches and strategic priorities that BTO could explore over the next 3-5 years that will support the implementation of high-potential energy efficiency opportunities for thisimportant sector. DOE is uniquely positioned to provide national leadership, objective information, and innovative tools, technologies, and services to support cost-effective energy savings in the fragmented and complex SBSP sector. Properly deployed, the DOE effort could enhance and complement current energy efficiency approaches. Small portfolios are loosely and qualitatively defined asportfolios of buildings that include only a small number of small buildings. This distinction is important because the report targets portfolio owners and managers who generally do not have staff and other resources to track energy use and pursue energy efficiency solutions.

  20. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  1. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    p.m. EDT HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1 p.m. EDT - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery

  2. A joint discussion model for assessing safety, health, and environmental risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbott, R.E.

    1995-12-01

    Industries competing in the global marketplace constantly evaluate potential opportunities for joint ventures and partnerships all over the world. In the petroleum industry, these prospects to explore for and produce oil and gas range geographically from densely populated areas, to offshore, to the remote reaches of a tropical rainforest. There are numerous risks associated with these prospects which must be assessed so that the best investments are selected. The risk categories include: commercial, technical geological, political and safety, health and environmental (SHE). SHE risks are sometimes the most difficult to assess within businesses because they do not allow an easy evaluation of economic impact or other quantification. Additionally, these issues are often not familiar to business development personnel and consequently are not evaluated on an equal basis with other risk criteria. This paper presents a joint discussion model that facilitates the communication between SHE personnel and other members of the multi-disciplinary teams responsible for evaluating and selecting the most attractive prospects. This tool uses a simple approach in contrast to the many quantitative decision-making software products currently available. It provides a set of questions related to relevant SHE issues, establishes a way to approximate the level of uncertainty in the answers, and sums the results so that a comparison among prospects is possible. In the end, a more rigorous, consistent SHE assessment of all prospects is made, and the rationale for each decision is archived so that improvement in the process over time is made easier.

  3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  4. Identifying At-Risk Employees: Modeling Psychosocial Precursors of Potential Insider Threats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.; Hohimer, Ryan E.

    2012-01-04

    In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee's behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. To test the model's agreement with human resources and management professionals, we conducted an experiment with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

  5. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  6. Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2010-09-01

    A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

  7. An Update on Fisker Automotive and the Energy Department's Loan Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Fisker Automotive and the Energy Department's Loan Portfolio An Update on Fisker Automotive and the Energy Department's Loan Portfolio September 17, 2013 - 5:20pm Addthis An Update on Fisker Automotive and the Energy Department’s Loan Portfolio Peter W. Davidson Peter W. Davidson Former Executive Director of the Loan Programs Office (LPO) What are the key facts? Thanks to investments made by the Obama Administration, the U.S. auto industry has had three straight

  8. Microsoft PowerPoint - 04 Melendez Rimando Restructuring of EM Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Briefing 3 March 2010 rev 2 rcvd 8 Mar 1100 [Compatibi | Department of Energy 4 Melendez Rimando Restructuring of EM Portfolio Briefing 3 March 2010 rev 2 rcvd 8 Mar 1100 [Compatibi Microsoft PowerPoint - 04 Melendez Rimando Restructuring of EM Portfolio Briefing 3 March 2010 rev 2 rcvd 8 Mar 1100 [Compatibi Microsoft PowerPoint - 04 Melendez Rimando Restructuring of EM Portfolio Briefing 3 March 2010 rev 2 rcvd 8 Mar 1100 [Compatibi (4.9 MB) More Documents & Publications Microsoft

  9. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Programs | Department of Energy Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section provides an index list of every active

  10. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Soft Costs | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Soft Costs The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Program Manager Dr. Elaine Ulrich, providing an overview of SunShot's work in the soft costs/balance of

  11. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Systems Integration 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Program Manager Dr. Ranga Pitchumani providing an overview of SunShot's work in

  12. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Technology to Market | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Technology to Market 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Technology to Market The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot's five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot's project portfolio as of May 2014. This section includes a letter from Program Manager Dr. Lidija Sekaric, providing an overview of SunShot's work

  13. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-11-30

    The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO2 permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale.

  14. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Access the recording and download the presentation slides from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office webinar "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" held on April 26, 2016.

  15. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Responding to a Data Request

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  16. HB 10-1001: Colorados new 30% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    HB 10-1001 Colorado's new 30% Renewable Portfolio Standard HB10-1001 Key Points * Increases 20% standard to 30% of sales by 2020 for Investor Owned Utilities * Changes the existing ...

  17. EPA ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Understanding Energy Metrics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  18. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Weather Data and Metrics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  19. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Sharing Forward and Transfer Ownership

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  20. Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

    2013-10-01

    In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

  1. Is it Worth it? A Comparative Analysis of Cost-Benefit Projectionsfor State Renewables Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2006-06-05

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to almost 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of twenty-six distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998 (see Figure 1 and Appendix for a complete list of the studies). Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in seventeen different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  2. DOE Announces Webinars on Adding Solar to Your Building Portfolio, How to

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Use DOE's Newest Facilities, and More | Department of Energy Adding Solar to Your Building Portfolio, How to Use DOE's Newest Facilities, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Adding Solar to Your Building Portfolio, How to Use DOE's Newest Facilities, and More February 27, 2014 - 4:48pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free;

  3. NASA's Composite Portfolio: Department of Energy Workshop Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites Manufacturing

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA 's Composites Portfolio Department of Energy Workshop Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites Manufacturing Presented by: John Vickers January 13, 2014 www.nasa.gov/spacetech NASA Centers and Mission Areas Composites support all of the NASA Mission Areas The NASA Composites Portfolio The Problem - The Solution Develop technologies and capabilities that make missions more affordable, more capable and more reliable Value to NASA - Value to the Nation

  4. Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.; Dagle, Jeffery E.; Millard, W. David; Yao, Juan; Glantz, Clifford S.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup

    2015-12-03

    Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of

  5. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Key, Thomas S

    2009-03-01

    The power transfer potential for bringing renewable energy into the Southeast in response to a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors. This interim report examines how the commonly used EIA NEMS and EPRI NESSIE energy equilibrium models are considering such power transfers. Using regional estimates of capacity expansion and demand, a base case for 2008, 2020 and 2030 are compared relative to generation mix, renewable deployments, planned power transfers, and meeting RPS goals. The needed amounts of regional renewable energy to comply with possible RPS levels are compared to inter-regional transmission capacities to establish a baseline available for import into the Southeast and other regions. Gaps in the renewable generation available to meet RPS requirements are calculated. The initial finding is that the physical capability for transferring renewable energy into the SE is only about 10% of what would be required to meet a 20% RPS. Issues that need to be addressed in future tasks with respect to modeling are the current limitations for expanding renewable capacity and generation in one region to meet the demand in another and the details on transmission corridors required to deliver the power.

  6. Reduced Order Model Implementation in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mandelli, Diego; Smith, Curtis L.; Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua J.; Talbot, Paul W.; Rinaldi, Ivan; Maljovec, Dan; Wang, Bei; Pascucci, Valerio; Zhao, Haihua

    2015-09-01

    The RISMC project aims to develop new advanced simulation-based tools to perform Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) for the existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). These tools numerically model not only the thermo-hydraulic behavior of the reactor primary and secondary systems but also external events temporal evolution and components/system ageing. Thus, this is not only a multi-physics problem but also a multi-scale problem (both spatial, µm-mm-m, and temporal, ms-s-minutes-years). As part of the RISMC PRA approach, a large amount of computationally expensive simulation runs are required. An important aspect is that even though computational power is regularly growing, the overall computational cost of a RISMC analysis may be not viable for certain cases. A solution that is being evaluated is the use of reduce order modeling techniques. During the FY2015, we investigated and applied reduced order modeling techniques to decrease the RICM analysis computational cost by decreasing the number of simulations runs to perform and employ surrogate models instead of the actual simulation codes. This report focuses on the use of reduced order modeling techniques that can be applied to any RISMC analysis to generate, analyze and visualize data. In particular, we focus on surrogate models that approximate the simulation results but in a much faster time (µs instead of hours/days). We apply reduced order and surrogate modeling techniques to several RISMC types of analyses using RAVEN and RELAP-7 and show the advantages that can be gained.

  7. Are renewables portfolio standards cost-effective emission abatement policy?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katerina Dobesova; Jay Apt; Lester B. Lave

    2005-11-15

    Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) could be an important policy instrument for 3P and 4P control. The authors examine the costs of renewable power, accounting for the federal production tax credit, the market value of a renewable credit, and the value of producing electricity without emissions of SO{sub 2}, NOx, mercury, and CO{sub 2}. The focus is on Texas, which has a large RPS and is the largest U.S. electricity producer and one of the largest emitters of pollutants and CO{sub 2}. The private and social costs of wind generation in an RPS is compared with the current cost of fossil generation, accounting for the pollution and CO{sub 2} emissions. It was found that society paid about 5.7 cents/kWh more for wind power, counting the additional generation, transmission, intermittency, and other costs. The higher cost includes credits amounting to 1.1 cents/kWh in reduced SO{sub 2}, NOx, and Hg emissions. These pollution reductions and lower CO{sub 2} emissions could be attained at about the same cost using pulverized coal (PC) or natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS); the reductions could be obtained more cheaply with an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with CCS. 35 refs., 7 tabs.

  8. Illinois SB 1987: the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-15

    On January 12, 2009, Governor Rod Blagojevich signed SB 1987, the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law. The legislation establishes emission standards for new coal-fueled power plants power plants that use coal as their primary feedstock. From 2009-2015, new coal-fueled power plants must capture and store 50 percent of the carbon emissions that the facility would otherwise emit; from 2016-2017, 70 percent must be captured and stored; and after 2017, 90 percent must be captured and stored. SB 1987 also establishes a goal of having 25 percent of electricity used in the state to come from cost-effective coal-fueled power plants that capture and store carbon emissions by 2025. Illinois is the first state to establish a goal for producing electricity from coal-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To support the commercial development of CCS technology, the legislation guarantees purchase agreements for the first Illinois coal facility with CCS technology, the Taylorville Energy Center (TEC); Illinois utilities are required to purchase at least 5 percent of their electricity supply from the TEC, provided that customer rates experience only modest increases. The TEC is expected to be completed in 2014 with the ability to capture and store at least 50 percent of its carbon emissions.

  9. ITP Energy Intensive Processes: Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio: Addressing Key Energy Challenges Across U.S. Industry

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Portfolio of projects focused on investments in high-impact, crosscutting opportunities that provide significant energy savings and carbon reductions across a broad industrial base

  10. Risk Management Process Overview

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The cybersecurity risk management process explained in the Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline has two primary components: the risk management model and the the risk management cycle.

  11. PERFLUOROCARBON GAS TRACER STUDIES TO SUPPORT RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBJECTED TO TERRORIST ATTACKS.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SULLIVAN, T.M.; HEISER, J.; WATSON, T.; ALLWINE, K.J.; FLAHERTY, J.E.

    2006-05-06

    Development of real-time predictive modeling to identify the dispersion and/or source(s) of airborne weapons of mass destruction including chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear material in urban environments is needed to improve response to potential releases of these materials via either terrorist or accidental means. These models will also prove useful in defining airborne pollution dispersion in urban environments for pollution management/abatement programs. Predicting gas flow in an urban setting on a scale of less than a few kilometers is a complicated and challenging task due to the irregular flow paths that occur along streets and alleys and around buildings of different sizes and shapes, i.e., ''urban canyons''. In addition, air exchange between the outside and buildings and subway areas further complicate the situation. Transport models that are used to predict dispersion of WMD/CBRN materials or to back track the source of the release require high-density data and need defensible parameterizations of urban processes. Errors in the data or any of the parameter inputs or assumptions will lead to misidentification of the airborne spread or source release location(s). The need for these models to provide output in a real-time fashion if they are to be useful for emergency response provides another challenge. To improve the ability of New York City's (NYC's) emergency management teams and first response personnel to protect the public during releases of hazardous materials, the New York City Urban Dispersion Program (UDP) has been initiated. This is a four year research program being conducted from 2004 through 2007. This paper will discuss ground level and subway Perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) release studies conducted in New York City. The studies released multiple tracers to study ground level and vertical transport of contaminants. This paper will discuss the results from these tests and how these results can be used for improving transport models

  12. Ethyl 3-ethoxybutyrate, a new component of the transportation renewable fuel portfolio

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bunce, Michael P.; Storey, John M. E.; Edmonds, Jennifer W.; Findlay, Robert H.; Ritchie, Stephen M. C.; Eyers, Laurent; McMurry, Zackery A.; Smoot, James C.

    2015-12-01

    The vast majority of energy that powers our global economy is from combustion of fossil fuels with the unintended consequence of increased deposition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and oceans. The scientific and technical challenges for the energy sector are to develop renewable energy sources that are sufficient to meet human energy consumption, are economically viable, and are ecologically sustainable. We investigated ethyl 3-ethoxybutyrate (EEB) as a fuel oxygenate in ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) with a bench-scale research engine and determined its economic potential as a renewable fuel with technoeconomic modeling using wastewater treatment plant biosolids as themore » feedstock for poly-3-hydroxyalkanoates (PHB), a bacterial storage polymer from which EEB can be synthesized. EEB blended well with ULSD, and cetane values of 10% and 20% v/v EEB-ULSD blends exceeded 40. A diesel internal combustion engine fueled with 5%, 10%, and 20% EEB-ULSD blends met or exceeded all tested transportation diesel fuel emissions criteria. Inedible organic feedstocks may be used to produce PHB; and thus, EEB might contribute to carbon reductions without compromising performance or air pollutant emissions. However, further research is needed to determine its role in the overall fuel portfolio. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

  13. TU-C-18A-01: Models of Risk From Low-Dose Radiation Exposures: What Does the Evidence Say?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bushberg, J; Boreham, D; Ulsh, B

    2014-06-15

    At dose levels of (approximately) 500 mSv or more, increased cancer incidence and mortality have been clearly demonstrated. However, at the low doses of radiation used in medical imaging, the relationship between dose and cancer risk is not well established. As such, assumptions about the shape of the dose-response curve are made. These assumptions, or risk models, are used to estimate potential long term effects. Common models include 1) the linear non-threshold (LNT) model, 2) threshold models with either a linear or curvilinear dose response above the threshold, and 3) a hormetic model, where the risk is initially decreased below background levels before increasing. The choice of model used when making radiation risk or protection calculations and decisions can have significant implications on public policy and health care decisions. However, the ongoing debate about which risk model best describes the dose-response relationship at low doses of radiation makes informed decision making difficult. This symposium will review the two fundamental approaches to determining the risk associated with low doses of ionizing radiation, namely radiation epidemiology and radiation biology. The strengths and limitations of each approach will be reviewed, the results of recent studies presented, and the appropriateness of different risk models for various real world scenarios discussed. Examples of well-designed and poorly-designed studies will be provided to assist medical physicists in 1) critically evaluating publications in the field and 2) communicating accurate information to medical professionals, patients, and members of the general public. Equipped with the best information that radiation epidemiology and radiation biology can currently provide, and an understanding of the limitations of such information, individuals and organizations will be able to make more informed decisions regarding questions such as 1) how much shielding to install at medical facilities, 2) at

  14. Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Sadovsky, Artyom; Sullivan, E. C.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options.

  15. Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" on Tuesday, April 26, from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

  16. Sharing Experiences within AREVA D and D Project Portfolio: Four Illustrations - 13049

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chabeuf, Jean-Michel; Varet, Thierry; AREVA Site Value Development Business Unit, La Hague Site

    2013-07-01

    Over the past ten years, AREVA has performed D and D operations on a wide range of nuclear sites, such as Marcoule and La Hague recycling plants, to Cadarache MOX fuel fabrication plant or Veurey and Annecy metallic Uranium machining plants. Each site is different from the other but some lessons can be shared through this D and D portfolio. In that respect, knowledge management is one of AREVA D and D Technical Department main missions. Four illustrations demonstrate the interest of knowledge share. Waste management is one of the key activities in D and D; It requires a specific characterization methodology, adapted logistics, and optimized waste channels, all of which have been developed over the years by AREVA teams on the site of Marcoule while they are rather new to La Hague, whose main activity remains fuel reprocessing despite the launch of UP2 400 D and D program. The transfer of know how has thus been organized over the past two years. Plasma cutting has been used extensively in Marcoule for years, while prohibited on the site of La Hague following questions raised about the risks associated wit Ruthenium sublimation. La Hague Technical Department has thus developed an experimental protocol to quantify and contain the Ruthenium risk, the result of which will then be applied to Marcoule where the Ruthenium issue has appeared in recent operations. Commissioning and operating fission products evaporators is a rather standard activity on UP2 800 and UP3, while the associated experience has been decreasing in Marcoule following final shutdown in 1998. When the French atomic Energy commission decided to build and operate a new evaporator to concentrate rinsing effluents prior to vitrification in 2009, AREVA La Hague operators were mobilized to test and commission the new equipment, and train local operators. Concrete scabbling is the final stage prior to the free release of a nuclear facility. In the context of Veurey and Annecy final cleanup and declassification

  17. Drought Risk Modeling for Thermoelectric Power Plants Siting using an Excess Over Threshold Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bekera, Behailu B; Francis, Royce A; Omitaomu, Olufemi A

    2014-01-01

    Water availability is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. In this paper, we model drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterise a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. This approach can potentially enhance early stage decisions in identifying candidate sites for a thermoelectric power plant application and allow investigation and assessment of varying degrees of drought risk during more advanced stages of the siting process.

  18. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  19. ASCR X-Stack Portfolio | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ASCR X-Stack Portfolio Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) ASCR Home About Research Applied Mathematics Computer Science Exascale Tools Workshop Programming Challenges Workshop Architectures I Workshop External link Architectures II Workshop External link Next Generation Networking Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) ASCR SBIR-STTR Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of ASCR Funding Opportunities Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee (ASCAC) Community

  20. New Study: Renewable Energy for State Renewable Portfolio Standards Yield Sizable Benefits

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A new report from the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) finds that state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies reduced greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, while also reducing water use, creating renewable energy jobs and suppressing wholesale electricity and natural gas prices.

  1. Small Buildings Small Portfolio Commercial Upstream Incentive Project: Regional Roll-Out- 2014 BTO Peer Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Todd Levin, Argonne National Laboratory To cost-effectively spur energy efficiency improvements in the small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector, this project is evaluating how to expand commercial upstream incentive approaches to a level that will be nationally replicated.

  2. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  3. Analysis of Casualty Risk per Police-Reported Crash for Model Year 2000 to 2004 Vehicles, using Crash Data from Five States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2011-03-20

    In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.

  4. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that

  5. Research Portfolio Report Ultra-Deepwater: Geologic Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... as the standard and to provide viscosity data at the ultra-deep reservoir conditions. ... They constructed a suite of geologic models and dynamic simulation models that synthesized ...

  6. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  7. So You Have Questions AboutƒRenewable Portfolio Standards: Resources & Technical Assistance (Postcard), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Renewable Portfolio Standards Resources & Technical Assistance Second in a series of Policy Basics NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. A renewable portfolio standard (RPS), sometimes called a renewable electricity standard, is a state-level requirement, typically established through legislation, to provide a minimum amount of energy from renewable resources.

  8. Groundwater Modeling System Linkage with the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene; Castleton, Karl J.

    2006-02-13

    The information in this document summarizes the approach that is used to link FRAMES-2 with GMS. This linkage will provide the user with the ability to (1) send information to a specific model in GMS, thereby modifying the models input information, as allowed by the model developer, (2) run the executable of the numerical model contained in GMS, and (3) extract, from the appropriate GMS output, information required for consumption by downstream models, which are also linked with FRAMES-2.

  9. 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

    2010-11-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

  10. Including Alternative Resources in State Renewable Portfolio Standards: Current Design and Implementation Experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Bird, L.

    2012-11-01

    Currently, 29 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have instituted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). An RPS sets a minimum threshold for how much renewable energy must be generated in a given year. Each state policy is unique, varying in percentage targets, timetables, and eligible resources. This paper examines state experience with implementing renewable portfolio standards that include energy efficiency, thermal resources, and non-renewable energy and explores compliance experience, costs, and how states evaluate, measure, and verify energy efficiency and convert thermal energy. It aims to gain insights from the experience of states for possible federal clean energy policy as well as to share experience and lessons for state RPS implementation.

  11. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the States: Balancing Goals and Implementation Strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cory, K. S.; Swezey, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    This paper reports on renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and how the RPS rules vary from state to state. This variation presents important challenges to successful implementation. Key issues are discussed in terms of resource availability, solar-specific provisions, and political and regulatory consistency, and their impacts on the ability to finance new renewable energy projects. This report emphasizes the fact that a successful RPS policy must balance a state's goals for fuel diversity, economic development, price effects, and environmental benefits.

  12. Overview of the National Renewable Energy Laboratorys Strategic Analysis Project Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Overview of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Analysis Project Portfolio Mary J. Biddy, Yimin Zhang, Ling Tao, Michael Talmadge National Renewable Energy Laboratory May 20, 2013 Analysis and Sustainability Peer Review 2013 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review 2 Goal Statement * Develop

  13. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-003 Revision 1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-003 Revision 1 Title: DOE-RL AMB HGET Training Approval Process SIA Date: August 6, 2013 Start: August 6, 2013 Finish: November 30, 2013 1.0 DESCRIPTION Mission Support Alliance (MSA) will provide subject matter experts to provide facilitation and project management support for an Operating Excellence (OE) Structured Improvement Activity (SIA) for the Department of Energy Richland (DOE-RL) Assistant Manager for Business and Financial Operations (AMB)

  14. 2016 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Project Portfolio | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2016 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Project Portfolio Solid Oxide Fuel Cells are energy conversion devices that produce electric power through an electrochemical reaction rather than by combustion. A transformational technology, SOFC's inherent characteristics make them uniquely suitable to address the environmental, climate change and water concerns associated with fossil- fuel- based electric power generation. The mission of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Program is to enable the generation of efficient,

  15. Risk and Realities | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    » Risk Management Process Overview Risk Management Process Overview figure depicting three tier risk management process The cybersecurity risk management process explained in the Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline has two primary components: the risk management model and the the risk management cycle. The risk management model reflects the organization as a three-tiered structure and provides a comprehensive view for the electricity sector organization and

  16. Insider Models with Finite Utility in Markets with Jumps

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Yamazato, Makoto

    2011-10-15

    In this article we consider, under a Levy process model for the stock price, the utility optimization problem for an insider agent whose additional information is the final price of the stock blurred with an additional independent noise which vanishes as the final time approaches. Our main interest is establishing conditions under which the utility of the insider is finite. Mathematically, the problem entails the study of a 'progressive' enlargement of filtration with respect to random measures. We study the jump structure of the process which leads to the conclusion that in most cases the utility of the insider is finite and his optimal portfolio is bounded. This can be explained financially by the high risks involved in models with jumps.

  17. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy inWestern Utility Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2005-09-01

    Markets for renewable electricity have grown significantly in recent years, motivated in part by federal tax incentives and in part by state renewables portfolio standards and renewable energy funds. State renewables portfolio standards, for example, motivated approximately 45% of the 4,300 MW of wind power installed in the U.S. from 2001 through 2004, while renewable energy funds supported an additional 15% of these installations. Despite the importance of these state policies, a less widely recognized driver for renewable energy market growth is poised to also play an important role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Formal resource planning processes have re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions - primarily coming from wind power - are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. The treatment of renewable energy in utility resource plans is not uniform, however. Assumptions about the direct and indirect costs of renewable resources, as well as resource availability, differ, as do approaches to incorporating such resources into the candidate portfolios that are analyzed in utility IRPs. The treatment of natural gas price risk, as well as the risk of future environmental regulations, also varies substantially. How utilities balance expected portfolio cost versus risk in selecting a preferred portfolio also differs. Each of these variables may have a substantial effect on the degree to which renewable energy contributes to the preferred portfolio of each utility IRP. This article

  18. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard (Report Summary) (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-06-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  19. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-05-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  20. Multi-Year Analysis of Renewable Energy Impacts in California: Results from the Renewable Portfolio Standards Integration Cost Analysis; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Shiu, H.; Kirby, B.; Jackson, K.

    2006-08-01

    California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, Senate Bill 1078) requires the state's investor-owned utilities to obtain 20% of their energy mix from renewable generation sources. To facilitate the imminent increase in the penetration of renewables, the California Energy Commission (CEC), in support of the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC), initiated a study of integration costs in the context of RPS implementation. This effort estimated the impact of renewable generation in the regulation and load-following time scales and calculated the capacity value of renewable energy sources using a reliability model. The analysis team, consisting of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the California Wind Energy Collaborative (CWEC), performed the study in cooperation with the California Independent System Operator (CaISO), the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), and Southern California Edison (SCE). The study was conducted over three phases and was followed by an analysis of a multi-year period. This paper presents results from the multi-year analysis and the Phase III recommendations.

  1. Evaluation of PV performance models and their impact on project risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Cameron, Christopher P.

    2010-12-01

    Photovoltaic systems are often priced in $/W{sub p}, where Wp refers to the DC power rating of the modules at Standard Test Conditions (1000 W/m{sup 2}, 25 C cell temperature) and $ refers to the installed cost of the system. However, the true value of the system is in the energy it will produce in kWhs, not the power rating. System energy production is a function of the system design and location, the mounting configuration, the power conversion system, and the module technology, as well as the solar resource. Even if all other variables are held constant, the annual energy yield (kWh/kW{sup p}) will vary among module technologies because of differences in response to low-light levels and temperature. Understanding energy yield is a key part of understanding system value. System performance models are used during project development to estimate the expected output of PV systems for a given design and location. Performance modeling is normally done by the system designer/system integrator. Often, an independent engineer will also model system output during a due diligence review of a project. A variety of system performance models are available. The most commonly used modeling tool for project development and due diligence in the United States is probably PVsyst, while those seeking a quick answer to expected energy production may use PVWatts. In this paper, we examine the variation in predicted energy output among modeling tools and users and compare that to measured output.

  2. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impactmore » of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.« less

  3. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John T.; Ekoto, Isaac W.; Walkup, Gregory W.

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.

  4. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incinerator facility (east Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 4. Atmospheric dispersion and deposition modeling of emissions. Draft report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-11-01

    The report constitutes a comprehensive site-specific risk assessment for the WTI incineration facility located in East Liverpool, OH. Volume IV describes the air dispersion model used to estimate air concentrations and particle deposition, as well as the results of the modeling exercise.

  5. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Key, Thomas S; Deb, Rajat

    2009-05-01

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, not including Florida, is approximately 24% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient long distant transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. It shows that development of wind resources will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  6. CdTe portfolio offers commercial ready high efficiency solar - Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovation Portal Find More Like This Return to Search CdTe portfolio offers commercial ready high efficiency solar National Renewable Energy Laboratory Contact NREL About This Technology Publications: PDF Document Publication MktgSummary CdTe.pdf (117 KB) Schematic illustration of a typical CdTe superstrate thin-film PV device. In this design, the layers of the device are deposited onto a glass &quot;superstrate&quot; that allows sunlight to enter. The sunlight passes through the

  7. Multi-Year Analysis Examines Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    As states consider revising renewable portfolio standard (RPS) programs or developing new ones, careful assessments of the costs, benefits, and other impacts of existing policies will be critical. RPS programs currently exist in 29 states and Washington, D.C. Many of these policies, which were enacted largely during the late 1990s and 2000s, will reach their terminal targets by the end of this decade. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) are engaged in a multi-year project to examine the costs, benefits, and other impacts of state RPS polices both retrospectively and prospectively. This fact sheet overviews this work.

  8. High Cost/High Risk Components to Chalcogenide Molded Lens Model: Molding Preforms and Mold Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernacki, Bruce E.

    2012-10-05

    This brief report contains a critique of two key components of FiveFocal's cost model for glass compression molding of chalcogenide lenses for infrared applications. Molding preforms and mold technology have the greatest influence on the ultimate cost of the product and help determine the volumes needed to select glass molding over conventional single-point diamond turning or grinding and polishing. This brief report highlights key areas of both technologies with recommendations for further study.

  9. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  10. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-08-01

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  11. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-07-11

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  12. Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shin, Hyeong -Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Arnot, Jon A.; Wetmore, Barbara A.; Csiszar, Susan A.; Fantke, Peter; Zhang, Xianming; McKone, Thomas E.; Jolliet, Olivier; Bennett, Deborah H.

    2015-05-01

    We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.g., dermal application, indoor emissions). For each chemical and use scenario, exposure models are then used to calculate a chemical intake fraction, or a product intake fraction, accounting for chemical properties and the exposed population. We then combine these intake fractions with use scenario-specific estimates of chemical quantity to calculate daily intake rates (iR; mg/kg/day). These intake rates are compared to oral equivalent doses (OED; mg/kg/day), calculated from a suite of ToxCast in vitro bioactivity assays using in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation and reverse dosimetry. Bioactivity quotients (BQs) are calculated as iR/OED to obtain estimates of potential impact associated with each relevant use scenario. Of the 180 chemicals considered, 38 had maximum iRs exceeding minimum OEDs (i.e., BQs > 1). For most of these compounds, exposures are associated with direct intake, food/oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models.

  13. Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shin, Hyeong -Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Arnot, Jon A.; Wetmore, Barbara A.; Csiszar, Susan A.; Fantke, Peter; Zhang, Xianming; McKone, Thomas E.; Jolliet, Olivier; Bennett, Deborah H.

    2015-05-01

    We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.g., dermal application, indoor emissions). For each chemical and use scenario, exposure models are then used to calculate a chemical intake fraction, or a product intake fraction, accounting for chemical properties and the exposed population. We then combine these intake fractions with use scenario-specific estimates of chemical quantity to calculate dailymore » intake rates (iR; mg/kg/day). These intake rates are compared to oral equivalent doses (OED; mg/kg/day), calculated from a suite of ToxCast in vitro bioactivity assays using in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation and reverse dosimetry. Bioactivity quotients (BQs) are calculated as iR/OED to obtain estimates of potential impact associated with each relevant use scenario. Of the 180 chemicals considered, 38 had maximum iRs exceeding minimum OEDs (i.e., BQs > 1). For most of these compounds, exposures are associated with direct intake, food/oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models.« less

  14. Portfolio Software

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    These software tools are available through EULAs. KIVA The KIVA family of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software predicts complex fuel and air flows as well as ignition, ...

  15. A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is the second in a series of reports exploring the costs, benefits, and other impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS), both retrospectively and prospectively. This report focuses on the benefits and impacts of all state RPS programs, in aggregate, for the year 2013 (the most-recent year for which the requisite data were available). Relying on a well-vetted set of methods, the study evaluates a number of important benefits and impacts in both physical and monetary terms, where possible, and characterizes key uncertainties. The prior study in this series focused on historical RPS compliance costs, and future work will evaluate costs, benefits, and other impacts of RPS policies prospectively.

  16. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Key, Thomas S; Hadley, Stanton W; Deb, Rajat

    2010-02-01

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, including Florida, is approximately 32% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. We found that significant wind energy transfers, at the level of 30-60 GW, are expected to be economic in case of federal RPC or CO2 policy. Development of wind resources will depend not only on the available transmission capacity and required balancing resources, but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  17. Building Energy Modeling Projects | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Emerging Technologies » Building Energy Modeling » Building Energy Modeling Projects Building Energy Modeling Projects View the Building Technologies Office's current portfolio of Building Energy Modeling projects. Core Projects AIA 2030 Commitment Portal Energy Modeling Community Resources EnergyPlus Modelica Buildings Library OpenStudio Radiance Test Procedures For Building Energy Simulation Tools Competitively Awarded Projects BENEFIT: A New Hybrid Approach to Energy Modeling BUILD:

  18. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated

  19. Multi-Year Analysis Examines Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards (Fact Sheet), NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    states consider revising renewable portfolio standard (RPS) programs or developing new ones, careful assessments of the costs, benefits, and other impacts of existing policies will be critical. RPS programs currently exist in 29 states and Washington, D.C. Many of these policies, which were enacted largely during the late 1990s and 2000s, will reach their terminal targets by the end of this decade. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

  20. Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" on Tuesday, April 26, from 12 to 1 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. This webinar provides an introduction to the new HyRAM research software developed by Sandia National Laboratories and supported by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office.

  1. Modeling the Risk of Radiation-Induced Acute Esophagitis for Combined Washington University and RTOG Trial 93-11 Lung Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Ellen X.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam; Hope, Andrew J.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; Bosch, Walter R.; Matthews, John W.; Sause, William T.; Graham, Mary V.; Deasy, Joseph O.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To construct a maximally predictive model of the risk of severe acute esophagitis (AE) for patients who receive definitive radiation therapy (RT) for non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The dataset includes Washington University and RTOG 93-11 clinical trial data (events/patients: 120/374, WUSTL = 101/237, RTOG9311 = 19/137). Statistical model building was performed based on dosimetric and clinical parameters (patient age, sex, weight loss, pretreatment chemotherapy, concurrent chemotherapy, fraction size). A wide range of dose-volume parameters were extracted from dearchived treatment plans, including Dx, Vx, MOHx (mean of hottest x% volume), MOCx (mean of coldest x% volume), and gEUD (generalized equivalent uniform dose) values. Results: The most significant single parameters for predicting acute esophagitis (RTOG Grade 2 or greater) were MOH85, mean esophagus dose (MED), and V30. A superior-inferior weighted dose-center position was derived but not found to be significant. Fraction size was found to be significant on univariate logistic analysis (Spearman R = 0.421, p < 0.00001) but not multivariate logistic modeling. Cross-validation model building was used to determine that an optimal model size needed only two parameters (MOH85 and concurrent chemotherapy, robustly selected on bootstrap model-rebuilding). Mean esophagus dose (MED) is preferred instead of MOH85, as it gives nearly the same statistical performance and is easier to compute. AE risk is given as a logistic function of (0.0688 Asterisk-Operator MED+1.50 Asterisk-Operator ConChemo-3.13), where MED is in Gy and ConChemo is either 1 (yes) if concurrent chemotherapy was given, or 0 (no). This model correlates to the observed risk of AE with a Spearman coefficient of 0.629 (p < 0.000001). Conclusions: Multivariate statistical model building with cross-validation suggests that a two-variable logistic model based on mean dose and the use of concurrent chemotherapy robustly predicts

  2. Results of a Technical Review of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program's R&D Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Marilyn A

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) is a multi-agency planning and coordinating entity, led by the U.S. Department of Energy that aims to accelerate the development and facilitate the adoption of technologies to address climate change. In late 2005, CCTP asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Energetics Incorporated to organize and coordinate a review of the CCTP R&D portfolio using structured workshops. Each workshop focused on one of CCTP's six strategic goals: 1.Reduce emissions from energy end-use and infrastructure 2.Reduce emissions from energy supply 3.Capture and sequester carbon dioxide 4.Reduce emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG) 5.Improve capabilities to measure and monitor GHG emissions 6.Bolster basic science contributions to technology development To promote meaningful dialogue while ensuring broad coverage, a group of broadly experienced professionals with expertise in fields relevant to each CCTP goal were asked to participate in the portfolio reviews and associated workshops. A total of 75 experts participated in the workshops; 60 of these participants represented non-Federal organizations. This report summarizes the findings of the workshops and the results of the Delphi assessment of the CCTP R&D portfolio.

  3. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  4. Property:ExplorationCostPerMetric | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Paleomagnetic Measurements Passive Seismic Techniques Passive Sensors Portable X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) Portfolio Risk Modeling Production Wells R Radar Remote Sensing Techniques...

  5. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  6. Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Factual Introduction toExperience from the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, R.; Namovicz, C.; Gielecki, M.; Smith, R.

    2007-05-09

    Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have--since the late 1990s--proliferated at the state level in the United States. What began as a policy idea minted in California and first described in detail in the pages of the 'Electricity Journal' FPT has emerged as an important driver for renewable energy capacity additions in the United States. Over the years, articles in the 'Electricity Journal' have explored the RPS in more detail, identifying both its strengths and weaknesses. The present article provides an introduction to the history, concept, and design of the RPS, reviews early experience with the policy as applied at the state level, and provides a brief overview of Federal RPS proposals to date and the possible relationship between Federal and state RPS policies. Our purpose is to offer a factual introduction to the RPS, as applied and considered in the U.S. Though elements of state RPS design are summarized here, other publications provide a more thorough review of design lessons that emerge from that experience. In addition, the present article does not describe the results of economic analyses of Federal RPS proposals, though we do cite many of the analyses conducted by the U.S. DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

  7. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, Jenny; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Weaver, Samantha; Flores, Francisco; Kuskova-Burns, Ksenia; Wiser, Ryan

    2014-03-12

    More than half of U.S. states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in place and have collectively deployed approximately 46,000 MW of new renewable energy capacity through year-end 2012. Most of these policies have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS benefits and costs is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. A key aspect of this study is the comprehensive review of existing RPS cost and benefit estimates, in addition to an examination of the variety of methods used to calculate such estimates. Based on available data and estimates reported by utilities and regulators, this study summarizes RPS costs to date. The study considers how those costs may evolve going forward, given scheduled increases in RPS targets and cost containment mechanisms incorporated into existing policies. The report also summarizes RPS benefits estimates, based on published studies for individual states, and discusses key methodological considerations.

  8. Supporting Solar Power in Renewables Portfolio Standards: Experience from the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Holt, Edward

    2010-10-01

    Among the available options for encouraging the increased deployment of renewable electricity, renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have become increasingly popular. The RPS is a relatively new policy mechanism, however, and experience with its use is only beginning to emerge. One key concern that has been voiced is whether RPS policies will offer adequate support to a wide range of renewable energy technologies and applications or whether, alternatively, RPS programs will favor a small number of the currently least-cost forms of renewable energy. This report documents the design of and early experience with state-level RPS programs in the United States that have been specifically tailored to encourage a wider diversity of renewable energy technologies, and solar energy in particular. As shown here, state-level RPS programs specifically designed to support solar have already proven to be an important, albeit somewhat modest, driver for solar energy deployment, and those impacts are projected to continue to build in the coming years. State experience in supporting solar energy with RPS programs is mixed, however, and full compliance with existing requirements has not been achieved. The comparative experiences described herein highlight the opportunities and challenges of applying an RPS to specifically support solar energy, as well as the importance of policy design details to ensuring that program goals are achieved.

  9. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  10. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  11. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Churchill, Susannah; Deyette, Jeff; Holt, Ed

    2008-04-09

    Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have proliferated at the state level in the United States since the late 1990s. In combination with Federal tax incentives, state RPS requirements have emerged as one of the most important drivers of renewable energy capacity additions. The focus of most RPS activity in the U.S. has been within the states. Nonetheless, the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate have, at different times, each passed versions of a Federal RPS; a Federal RPS, however, has not yet been signed into law. The design of an RPS can and does vary, but at its heart an RPS simply requires retail electricity suppliers (also called load-serving entities, or LSEs) to procure a certain minimum quantity of eligible renewable energy. An RPS establishes numeric targets for renewable energy supply, applies those targets to retail electricity suppliers, and seeks to encourage competition among renewable developers to meet the targets in a least-cost fashion. RPS purchase obligations generally increase over time, and retail suppliers typically must demonstrate compliance on an annual basis. Mandatory RPS policies are backed by various types of compliance enforcement mechanisms, and many--but not all--such policies include the trading of renewable energy certificates (RECs). Renewables portfolio standards are a relatively recent addition to the renewable energy policy landscape, and these policies continue to evolve. Keeping up with the design, early experience, and projected impacts of these programs is a challenge. This report seeks to fill this need by providing basic, factual information on RPS policies in the United States. It focuses on state-level initiatives, though a later section briefly discusses Federal developments as well. The report does not cover municipal-level renewable energy goals, unless required by state law. Similarly, this report focuses on mandatory state RPS requirements, though it also touches on non-binding renewable energy goals

  12. Validation of mathematical models for the prediction of organs-at-risk dosimetric metrics in high-dose-rate gynecologic interstitial brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damato, Antonio L.; Viswanathan, Akila N.; Cormack, Robert A.

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Given the complicated nature of an interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy treatment plan, the use of a quantitative tool to evaluate the quality of the achieved metrics compared to clinical practice would be advantageous. For this purpose, predictive mathematical models to predict the D{sub 2cc} of rectum and bladder in interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy are discussed and validated.Methods: Previous plans were used to establish the relationship between D2cc and the overlapping volume of the organ at risk with the targeted area (C0) or a 1-cm expansion of the target area (C1). Three mathematical models were evaluated: D{sub 2cc}=α*C{sub 1}+β (LIN); D{sub 2cc}=α– exp(–β*C{sub 0}) (EXP); and a mixed approach (MIX), where both C{sub 0} and C{sub 1} were inputs of the model. The parameters of the models were optimized on a training set of patient data, and the predictive error of each model (predicted D{sub 2cc}− real D{sub 2cc}) was calculated on a validation set of patient data. The data of 20 patients were used to perform a K-fold cross validation analysis, with K = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 20.Results: MIX was associated with the smallest mean prediction error <6.4% for an 18-patient training set; LIN had an error <8.5%; EXP had an error <8.3%. Best case scenario analysis shows that an error ≤5% can be achieved for a ten-patient training set with MIX, an error ≤7.4% for LIN, and an error ≤6.9% for EXP. The error decreases with the increase in training set size, with the most marked decrease observed for MIX.Conclusions: The MIX model can predict the D{sub 2cc} of the organs at risk with an error lower than 5% with a training set of ten patients or greater. The model can be used in the development of quality assurance tools to identify treatment plans with suboptimal sparing of the organs at risk. It can also be used to improve preplanning and in the development of real-time intraoperative planning tools.

  13. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Estimating the Value of Utility- Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard J. Jorgenson, P. Denholm, and M. Mehos Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-61685 May 2014 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Contract No.

  14. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-002 Title: DOE-HQ Security System Review and Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Section J Contract No. DE-AC06-09RL14728 Modification 280 Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-002 Title: DOE-HQ Security System Review and Assessment Revision Number: 0 Date: 04/11/2013 Start: 05/01/2013 Finish: 07/30/2013 1.0 DESCRIPTION The DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) Headquarters Security System (HQSS) is installed at the EM Consolidated Business Center (CBC) in Cincinnati, OH and administered from DOE Headquarters in Washington, DC. HQSS has been running as a

  15. Risk Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Almost any new technology involves some risk. Risks involved in working with hydrogen can be minimized through adherence to standard design parameters for equipment and procedures. The Fuel Cell...

  16. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, M; Ronald Fayfich, R; Steven P Schneider, S

    2008-12-12

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects.

  17. Technical Risk Rating of DOE Environmental Projects - 9153

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, Michael; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven

    2009-02-11

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects.

  18. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST`s wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots.

  19. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-02-01

    The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.

  20. 20% Wind Energy - Diversifying Our Energy Portfolio and Addressing Climate Change (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-05-01

    This brochure describes the R&D efforts needed for wind energy to meet 20% of the U.S. electrical demand by 2030. In May 2008, DOE published its report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030, which presents an in-depth analysis of the potential for wind energy in the United States and outlines a potential scenario to boost wind electric generation from its current production of 16.8 gigawatts (GW) to 304 GW by 2030. According to the report, achieving 20% wind energy by 2030 could help address climate change by reducing electric sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 825 million metric tons (20% of the electric utility sector CO2 emissions if no new wind is installed by 2030), and it will enhance our nation's energy security by diversifying our electricity portfolio as wind energy is an indigenous energy source with stable prices not subject to fuel volatility. According to the report, increasing our nation's wind generation could also boost local rural economies and contribute to significant growth in manufacturing and the industry supply chain. Rural economies will benefit from a substantial increase in land use payments, tax benefits and the number of well-paying jobs created by the wind energy manufacturing, construction, and maintenance industries. Although the initial capital costs of implementing the 20% wind scenario would be higher than other generation sources, according to the report, wind energy offers lower ongoing energy costs than conventional generation power plants for operations, maintenance, and fuel. The 20% scenario could require an incremental investment of as little as $43 billion (net present value) more than a base-case no new wind scenario. This would represent less than 0.06 cent (6 one-hundredths of 1 cent) per kilowatt-hour of total generation by 2030, or roughly 50 cents per month per household. The report concludes that while achieving the 20% wind scenario is technically achievable, it will require enhanced transmission infrastructure

  1. A Drop in the Bucket or a Pebble in a Pond: Commercial Building Partners Replication of EEMs Across Their Portfolios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.; Baechler, Michael C.; Dillon, Heather E.

    2014-08-18

    This study presents findings from questionnaire and interview data investigating replication efforts of Commercial Building Partnership (CBP) partners that worked directly with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL partnered with 12 organizations on new and retrofit construction projects as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) CBP program. PNNL and other national laboratories collaborate with industry leaders that own large portfolios of buildings to develop high performance projects for new construction and renovation. This project accelerates market adoption of commercially available energy saving technologies into the design process for new and upgraded commercial buildings. The labs provide assistance to the partners design teams and make a business case for energy investments. From the owners perspective, a sound investment results in energy savings based on corporate objectives and design. Through a feedback questionnaire, along with personal interviews, PNNL gathered qualitative and quantitative information relating to replication efforts by each organization. Data through this process were analyzed to provide insight into two primary research areas: 1) CBP partners replication efforts of technologies and approaches used in the CBP project to the rest of the organizations building portfolio (including replication verification), and, 2) the market potential for technology diffusion into the total U.S. commercial building stock, as a direct result of the CBP entire program.

  2. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  3. Environmental risk and the business bottom line

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wright, N.H.

    1996-12-31

    Demands for the integration of environmental considerations into the business priorities of leading companies are gathering momentum. Potentially devastating financial losses linked to environmental problems or mismanagement and perceptions of environmental issues, has alarmed the public, financial and insurance sectors together with key stakeholders. Expensive lessons have been learned in recent years - poor environmental design and management can undoubtedly lead to escalation of overall costs to meet changing standards and end of life cycle decommissioning bills. Environmental impact not only damages profitability but erodes the corporate asset base. Even suspicion of land contamination can wipe out market values of real estate. Comprehensive screening of business portfolios, investment plans, and existing assets for sources of environmental risk from concept to divestment, is crucial to ensure environmentally sound investment, to protect assets and minimize both environmental impact and future liability. Today`s key stakeholders and financial sectors are looking beyond the existing balance sheets of companies and now scrutinise their environmental credentials to ensure wise investment. Recent developments in environmental risk as a tool for placing environment on the balance sheet of private and public companies will be presented, using selected examples geared to the exploration and production business, together with the needs for a common, international framework for environmental risk strategies.

  4. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 3

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  5. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 7

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  6. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 9

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  7. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 6

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  8. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 5

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  9. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 8

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  10. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  11. Risk Code?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Identify the Task Risk Code >2 Determine if a Work Control Document is needed What is the Unmitigated Risk Code? Rev.1 09/05/14 Read and Agree to Comply with appropriate mitigation and sign Work Control Documents Is there an approved Work Control Document (WCD)? WORK PLANNING, CONTROL AND AUTHORIZATION FLOW DIAGRAM 1. Define Scope of Work 2. Analyze Hazards 3. Develop and Implement Hazard Controls 4. Perform Work Within Controls 5. Feedback and Continuous Improvement Analyze Hazards and

  12. Visual agent-based model development with repast simphony.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    North, M. J.; Tatara, E.; Collier, N. T.; Ozik, J.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago; PantaRei Corp.

    2007-01-01

    Repast is a widely used, free, and open-source agent-based modeling and simulation toolkit. Three Repast platforms are currently available, each of which has the same core features but a different environment for these features. Repast Simphony (Repast S) extends the Repast portfolio by offering a new approach to simulation development and execution. This paper presents a model of physical infrastructure network interdependency as an introductory tutorial and illustration of the visual modeling capabilities of Repast S.

  13. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative The Office of...

  14. Carbon tax or carbon permits: The impact on generators' risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Green, R.

    2008-07-01

    Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalized market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with costs that are not correlated with price, even if those costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators' profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted.

  15. A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk; Lee, Nam Kwon; Jung, So-Youn; Kim, Tae Hyun; Lee, Eun Sook; Kang, Han-Sung; Shin, Kyung Hwan

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.

  16. The Treatment of Renewable Energy Certificates, EmissionsAllowances, and Green Power Programs in State Renewables PortfolioStandards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holt, Edward A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-04-17

    Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia have adopted mandatory renewables portfolio standards (RPS) over the last ten years. Renewable energy attributes-such as the energy source, conversion technology, plant location and vintage, and emissions-are usually required to verify compliance with these policies, sometimes through attributes bundled with electricity, and sometimes with the attributes unbundled from electricity and traded separately as renewable energy certificates (RECs). This report summarizes the treatment of renewable energy attributes in state RPS rules. Its purpose is to provide a source of information for states considering RPS policies, and also to draw attention to certain policy issues that arise when renewable attributes and RECs are used for RPS compliance. Three specific issues are addressed: (1) the degree to which unbundled RECs are allowed under existing state RPS programs and the status of systems to track RECs and renewable energy attributes; (2) definitions of the renewable energy attributes that must be included in order to meet state RPS obligations, including the treatment of available emissions allowances; and (3) state policies on whether renewable energy or RECs sold through voluntary green power transactions may count towards RPS obligations.

  17. The RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARD RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARD

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The broader goal of the RPS is to achieve various benefits associated with renewable energy. These benefits relate to the environment, resource diversity, technology advancement, and in-state...

  18. Observations on the Optimality Tolerance in the CAISO 33% RPS Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yao, Y; Meyers, C; Schmidt, A; Smith, S; Streitz, F

    2011-09-22

    In 2008 Governor Schwarzenegger of California issued an executive order requiring that 33 percent of all electricity in the state in the year 2020 should come from renewable resources such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and small hydroelectric facilities. This 33% renewable portfolio standard (RPS) was further codified and signed into law by Governor Brown in 2011. To assess the market impacts of such a requirement, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) initiated a study to quantify the cost, risk, and timing of achieving a 33% RPS by 2020. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) was contracted to manage this study. The production simulation model used in this study was developed using the PLEXOS software package, which allows energy planners to optimize long-term system planning decisions under a wide variety of system constraints. In this note we describe our observations on varying the optimality tolerance in the CAISO 33% RPS model. In particular, we observe that changing the optimality tolerance from .05% to .5% leads to solutions over 5 times faster, on average, producing very similar solutions with a negligible difference in overall distance from optimality.

  19. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walters, J.C.; Reno, H.W.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  20. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  1. Scout: A Portfolio Impact Analysis Tool for Building Energy-Efficiency Technologies

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    March 9, 2016 DOE ordered School Air Mfg. Corp. d/b/a School Air, Inc. to pay a $8,000 civil penalty after finding School Air had failed to certify that certain models of single package vertical air conditioning and heating equipment comply with the applicable energy conservation standards. The Order adopted a Compromise Agreement, which reflected settlement terms between DOE and School Air. School Air: Order (2016-CE-43004) (21.86 KB) More Documents & Publications School Air: Proposed

  2. Building Energy Modeling | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Emerging Technologies » Building Energy Modeling Building Energy Modeling About the portfolio Building energy modeling (BEM)-physics-based calculation of building energy consumption-is a multi-use tool for building energy efficiency. Established use cases include design of new buildings and deep retrofits, development of whole-building energy efficiency codes and standards (e.g., ASHRAE 90.1) and performance-path compliance with those codes (e.g., ASHRAE 90.1 "Appendix G" Performance

  3. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-12

    The purpose of this guide is to describe effective risk management processes. The continuous and iterative process includes updating project risk documents and the risk management plan and emphasizes implementation communication of the risks and actions taken.

  4. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 4. Atmospheric dispersion and deposition modeling of emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-05-01

    Contents: Introduction; Technical Description of ISC-COMPDEP; Modeling Input Parameters; Discussion of Modeling Results; Summary and Major Assumptions; and References.

  5. Progress toward risk informed regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, K.C.

    1997-01-01

    For the last several years, the NRC, with encouragement from the industry, has been moving in the direction of risk informed regulation. This is consistent with the regulatory principle of efficiency, formally adopted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1991, which requires that regulatory activities be consistent with the degree of risk reduction they achieve. Probabilistic risk analysis has become the tool of choice for selecting the best of several alternatives. Closely related to risk informed regulation is the development of performance based rules. Such rules focus on the end result to be achieved. They do not specify the process, but instead establish the goals to be reached and how the achievement of those goals is to be judged. The inspection and enforcement activity is based on whether or not the goals have been met. The author goes on to offer comments on the history of the development of this process and its probable development in the future. He also addresses some issues which must be resolved or at least acknowledged. The success of risk informed regulation ultimately depends on having sufficiently reliable data to allow quantification of regulatory alternatives in terms of relative risk. Perhaps the area of human reliability and organizational performance has the greatest potential for improvement in reactor safety. The ability to model human performance is significantly less developed that the ability to model mechanical or electrical systems. The move toward risk informed, performance based regulation provides an unusual, perhaps unique, opportunity to establish a more rational, more effective basis for regulation.

  6. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  7. Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science & Innovation » Carbon Capture and Storage » Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Research in simulation and risk assessment is focused on development of advanced simulation models of the subsurface and integration of the results into a risk assessment that includes both technical and programmatic risks. Simulation models are critical for predicting the flow of the CO2 in the target formations, chemical changes that may

  8. Risk Assessment & Management Information

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NRC - A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework, April 2012 Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) web page DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty

  9. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  10. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  11. Fuzzy Risk Analyzer

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-03-04

    FRA is a general purpose code for risk analysis using fuzzy, not numeric, attributes. It allows the user to evaluate the risk associated with a composite system on the basis of the risk estimates of the individual components.

  12. GTO Project Portfolio

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office funds 154 research and development projects leveraging nearly $500 million in total combined investment. Each project represents a growing technology sector in conventional hydrothermal,...

  13. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The “alternative energy generating sources” include combined heat and power (CHP) projects, flywheel energy storage, energy efficient steam technology. and renewable technologies that generate us...

  14. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Class I - New Renewable Energy. This class addresses electricity or “useful thermal energy” generated by any of the following resources, provided the generator began operation after January 1, 20...

  15. Green Leasing Deployment Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Group * Kimco Realty * Liberty Property Trust * National Real Estate Investor * Newmark ... Partners, Subcontractors, and Collaborators: DOE collaborated with IMT, a trusted policy ...

  16. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Note: H.B. 263 was enacted in April 2015, allowing distribution cooperatives to earn renewable energy certificates for energy generated by geothermal heat pumps. 

  17. Current Research Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in a storage tank. In the US market today, heat pump water heaters are of the integral type and typically use R-410a. In the near future, at least one manufacturer intends to...

  18. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE:  On November 2nd 2015, Governor Cumo directed the Public Service Department (PSC) to establish a new Clean Energy Standard mandating 50% of the electricity consumed in NY to come from clean...

  19. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The IPA's proposed procurement plan for 2016 can be found in Docket 15-0541 and on the IPA website.

  20. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Requirements Large investor-owned utilities -- those with 3% or more of the state's load -- must ensure that a percentage of the electricity sold to retail customers in-state be derived from eli...

  1. Xcel Energy REC Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Xcel Energy Renewable Resources Jim Hill February 7, 2012 2 Xcel Energy Overview Northern States Power Company- Minnesota Northern States Power Company- Minnesota Northern States ...

  2. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are...

  3. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Research & Capabilities, Solar, Solar Newsletter, SunShot, Systems Analysis Sandia Develops Stochastic ...

  4. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Monte Carlo modeling it was found that for noisy signals with a significant background component, accuracy is improved by fitting the total emission data which includes the...

  5. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar Sandia Labs Releases New Version of PVLib Toolbox Sandia has released version 1.3 of PVLib, its widely used Matlab toolbox for modeling photovoltaic (PV) power ...

  6. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Sandia Will Host PV Bankability Workshop at Solar Power International (SPI) 2013 Computational Modeling & Simulation, Distribution Grid Integration, Energy, Facilities, Grid ...

  7. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science and Actuarial Practice" Read More Permalink New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, ...

  8. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Though adequate for modeling mean transport, this approach does not address ... Microphysics such as diffusive transport and chemical kinetics are represented by ...

  9. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    with application in modeling NDCX-II experiments Wangyi Liu 1 , John Barnard 2 , Alex Friedman 2 , Nathan Masters 2 , Aaron Fisher 2 , Alice Koniges 2 , David Eder 2 1 LBNL, USA, 2...

  10. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NASA Earth at Night Video EC, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Global, Modeling, News & Events, Solid-State Lighting, Videos NASA Earth at Night Video Have you ever wondered what the ...

  11. Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

  12. Builtin vs. auxiliary detection of extrapolation risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Munson, Miles Arthur; Kegelmeyer, W. Philip,

    2013-02-01

    A key assumption in supervised machine learning is that future data will be similar to historical data. This assumption is often false in real world applications, and as a result, prediction models often return predictions that are extrapolations. We compare four approaches to estimating extrapolation risk for machine learning predictions. Two builtin methods use information available from the classification model to decide if the model would be extrapolating for an input data point. The other two build auxiliary models to supplement the classification model and explicitly model extrapolation risk. Experiments with synthetic and real data sets show that the auxiliary models are more reliable risk detectors. To best safeguard against extrapolating predictions, however, we recommend combining builtin and auxiliary diagnostics.

  13. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are already in place that mitigate that risk, and propose additional controls if needed. Step 1: Identify Risks - What can go wrong? This step should identify the negative outcomes that could result from an action or decision . It is important to consider a wide range of risks, and so the Department's ERM framework includes

  14. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.

    2004-03-20

    The relative hazard (RH) and risk measure (RM) methodology and computer code is a health risk-based tool designed to allow managers and environmental decision makers the opportunity to readily consider human health risks (i.e., public and worker risks) in their screening-level analysis of alternative cleanup strategies. Environmental management decisions involve consideration of costs, schedules, regulatory requirements, health hazards, and risks. The RH-RM tool is a risk-based environmental management decision tool that allows managers the ability to predict and track health hazards and risks over time as they change in relation to mitigation and cleanup actions. Analysis of the hazards and risks associated with planned mitigation and cleanup actions provides a baseline against which alternative strategies can be compared. This new tool allows managers to explore “what if scenarios,” to better understand the impact of alternative mitigation and cleanup actions (i.e., alternatives to the planned actions) on health hazards and risks. This new tool allows managers to screen alternatives on the basis of human health risk and compare the results with cost and other factors pertinent to the decision. Once an alternative or a narrow set of alternatives are selected, it will then be more cost-effective to perform the detailed risk analysis necessary for programmatic and regulatory acceptance of the selected alternative. The RH-RM code has been integrated into the PNNL developed Framework for Risk Analysis In Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) to allow the input and output data of the RH-RM code to be readily shared with the more comprehensive risk analysis models, such as the PNNL developed Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) model.

  15. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant statusmore » are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.« less

  16. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  17. Development of Science-Based Permitting Guidance for Geological Sequestration of CO2 in Deep Saline Aquifers Based on Modeling and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jean-Philippe Nicot; Renaud Bouroullec; Hugo Castellanos; Susan Hovorka; Srivatsan Lakshminarasimhan; Jeffrey Paine

    2006-06-30

    Underground carbon storage may become one of the solutions to address global warming. However, to have an impact, carbon storage must be done at a much larger scale than current CO{sub 2} injection operations for enhanced oil recovery. It must also include injection into saline aquifers. An important characteristic of CO{sub 2} is its strong buoyancy--storage must be guaranteed to be sufficiently permanent to satisfy the very reason that CO{sub 2} is injected. This long-term aspect (hundreds to thousands of years) is not currently captured in legislation, even if the U.S. has a relatively well-developed regulatory framework to handle carbon storage, especially in the operational short term. This report proposes a hierarchical approach to permitting in which the State/Federal Government is responsible for developing regional assessments, ranking potential sites (''General Permit'') and lessening the applicant's burden if the general area of the chosen site has been ranked more favorably. The general permit would involve determining in the regional sense structural (closed structures), stratigraphic (heterogeneity), and petrophysical (flow parameters such as residual saturation) controls on the long-term fate of geologically sequestered CO{sub 2}. The state-sponsored regional studies and the subsequent local study performed by the applicant will address the long-term risk of the particular site. It is felt that a performance-based approach rather than a prescriptive approach is the most appropriate framework in which to address public concerns. However, operational issues for each well (equivalent to the current underground injection control-UIC-program) could follow regulations currently in place. Area ranking will include an understanding of trapping modes. Capillary (due to residual saturation) and structural (due to local geological configuration) trappings are two of the four mechanisms (the other two are solubility and mineral trappings), which are the most

  18. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  19. Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loth, E.; Tryggvason, G.; Tsuji, Y.; Elghobashi, S. E.; Crowe, Clayton T.; Berlemont, A.; Reeks, M.; Simonin, O.; Frank, Th; Onishi, Yasuo; Van Wachem, B.

    2005-09-01

    Slurry flows occur in many circumstances, including chemical manufacturing processes, pipeline transfer of coal, sand, and minerals; mud flows; and disposal of dredged materials. In this section we discuss slurry flow applications related to radioactive waste management. The Hanford tank waste solids and interstitial liquids will be mixed to form a slurry so it can be pumped out for retrieval and treatment. The waste is very complex chemically and physically. The ARIEL code is used to model the chemical interactions and fluid dynamics of the waste.

  20. Sandia Energy - DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments Home Infrastructure Security Infrastructure Assurance Facilities News NISAC News & Events Research & Capabilities Modeling...

  1. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  2. Topographical Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  3. Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In this report, we introduce a new transparent regional capacity expansion model with high spatio-temporal resolution and detailed representation of dispatch. The development of this model, referred to as the Resource Planning Model (RPM), is motivated by the lack of a tool in the public domain that can be used to characterize optimal regional deployment of resources with detailed dispatch modeling. In particular, RPM is designed to evaluate scenarios of renewable technology deployment to meet renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and emission-reduction goals, and to project possible deployment levels for various projections of future technology and fuel prices.

  4. Radiation risk management at DOE accelerator facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyck, O.B. van

    1997-01-01

    The DOE accelerator contractors have been discussing among themselves and with the Department how to improve radiation safety risk management. This activity-how to assure prevention of unplanned high exposures-is separate from normal exposure management, which historically has been quite successful. The ad-hoc Committee on the Accelerator Safety Order and Guidance [CASOG], formed by the Accelerator Section of the HPS, has proposed a risk- based approach, which will be discussed. Concepts involved are risk quantification and comparison (including with non-radiation risk), passive and active (reacting) protection systems, and probabilistic analysis. Different models of risk management will be presented, and the changing regulatory environment will also be discussed..

  5. Summary of Recommendations: Legislative and Regulatory Actions to Consider for Ensuring the Long-Term Effectiveness of the Nevada Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, Kevin; Grace, Robert; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-10-29

    In 2001, the Nevada Legislature passed an aggressive renewable portfolio standard (Nevada RPS) that called for 5% of each major utility's resource mix to come from eligible renewable energy by 2003, rising by 2% every two years to 15% by 2013. Of the RPS standard, 5% per year must come from solar energy. The early performance of the Nevada RPS is generally considered to be disappointing. So far, only a small quantity of electricity state wide has been generated by new renewable energy systems. The utilities and many other stakeholders appear to agree that the utilities, which were unable to fully comply with the RPS in 2003, will continue to have difficulty complying in 2004 and 2005, and perhaps beyond. To date, there have been several efforts to improve compliance with the RPS (such as California and New Mexico). Other states in the region are also motivated to develop their renewable resources, and some have adopted RPS policies. A workshop as held on November 4, 2004 in Reno in order to address additional measures available to strengthen the Nevada RPS, and to consider the implications and potential interaction with RPS policies in nearby states. The purpose of this report is to identify and summarize the top policy priorities, from among those identified and discussed at the November 4, 2004 Reno Workshop, to be considered by the Nevada Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Task Force for implementation.

  6. PLAY ANALYSIS AND DIGITAL PORTFOLIO OF MAJOR OIL RESERVOIRS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN: APPLICATION AND TRANSFER OF ADVANCED GEOLOGICAL AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES FOR INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION OPPORTUNITIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shirley P. Dutton; Eugene M. Kim; Ronald F. Broadhead; William Raatz; Cari Breton; Stephen C. Ruppel; Charles Kerans; Mark H. Holtz

    2003-04-01

    A play portfolio is being constructed for the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, the largest petroleum-producing basin in the US. Approximately 1300 reservoirs in the Permian Basin have been identified as having cumulative production greater than 1 MMbbl of oil through 2000. Of these major reservoirs, approximately 1,000 are in Texas and 300 in New Mexico. On a preliminary basis, 32 geologic plays have been defined for Permian Basin oil reservoirs and assignment of each of the 1300 major reservoirs to a play has begun. The reservoirs are being mapped and compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS) by play. Detailed studies of three reservoirs are in progress: Kelly-Snyder (SACROC unit) in the Pennsylvanian and Lower Permian Horseshoe Atoll Carbonate play, Fullerton in the Leonardian Restricted Platform Carbonate play, and Barnhart (Ellenburger) in the Ellenburger Selectively Dolomitized Ramp Carbonate play. For each of these detailed reservoir studies, technologies for further, economically viable exploitation are being investigated.

  7. Sociocultural definitions of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-10-01

    Public constituencies frequently are criticized by technical experts as being irrational in response to low-probability risks. This presentation argued that most people are concerned with a variety of risk attributes other than probability and that is rather irrational to exclude these from the definition and analysis of technological risk. Risk communication, which is at the heart of the right-to-know concept, is described as the creation of shared meaning rather than the mere transmission of information. A case study of utilities, public utility commissions, and public interest groups illustrates how the diversity of institutional cultures in modern society leads to problems for the creation of shared meanings in establishing trust, distributing liability, and obtaining consent to risk. This holistic approach to risk analysis is most appropriate under conditions of high uncertainty and/or decision stakes. 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  8. Risk Identification and Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Identification and Assessment [Sections in brackets are for instructions; these should be deleted or replaced with specifics in the template.] Subsystem Title or Section within Subsystem [In the first column, using short bullets, fill in "what can go wrong," or a brief description of a potential benefit from a program or action. Add additional rows as necessary. Fill in the other columns using the rating guidelines in the attached reference pages.] |Risk|Probability|Impact|Risk

  9. Enterprise Risk Management Specialist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    (See Frequently Asked Questions for more information). Where would I be working? Western Area Power Administration, Corporate Services Office, Office of the Chief Operating Officer, Risk and...

  10. EIN Cash Flow Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EIN Cash Flow Model Energy Independence Now (EIN) Objectives Identify financial risks in early hydrogen infrastructure systems and illustrate hydrogen station cash flows under a ...

  11. Probabilistic model better defines development well risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Connolly, M.R.

    1996-10-14

    Probabilistic techniques to compare and rank projects, such as the drilling of development wells, often are more representative than decision tree or deterministic approaches. As opposed to traditional deterministic methods, probabilistic analysis gives decision-makers ranges of outcomes with associated probabilities of occurrence. This article analyzes the drilling of a hypothetical development well with actual field data (such as stabilized initial rates, production declines, and gas/oil ratios) to calculate probabilistic reserves, and production flow streams. Analog operating data were included to build distributions for capital and operating costs. Economics from the Monte Carlo simulation include probabilistic production flow streams and cost distributions. Results include single parameter distributions (reserves, net present value, and profitability index) and time function distributions (annual production and net cash flow).

  12. Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based ...

  13. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  14. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    BPA's operating environment is filled with numerous uncertainties, and thus the rate-setting process must take into account a wide spectrum of risks. The objective of the Risk Analysis is to identify, model, and analyze the impacts that key risks have on BPA's net revenue (total revenues less total expenses). This is carried out in two distinct steps: a risk analysis step, in which the distributions, or profiles, of operating and non operating risks are defined, and a risk mitigation step, in which different rate tools are tested to assess their ability to recover BPA's costs in the face of this uncertainty. Two statistical models are used in the risk analysis step for this rate proposal, the Risk Analysis Model (RiskMod), and the Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM), while a third model, the ToolKit, is used to test the effectiveness of rate tools options in the risk mitigation step. RiskMod is discussed in Sections 2.1 through 2.4, the NORM is discussed in Section 2.5, and the ToolKit is discussed in Section 3. The models function together so that BPA can develop rates that cover all of its costs and provide a high probability of making its Treasury payments on time and in full during the rate period. By law, BPA's payments to Treasury are the lowest priority for revenue application, meaning that payments to Treasury are the first to be missed if financial reserves are insufficient to pay all bills on time. For this reason, BPA measures its potential for recovering costs in terms of probability of being able to make Treasury payments on time (also known as Treasury Payment Probability or TPP).

  15. Determining risks for hazardous material operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cournoyer, M. E.; Dare, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    Integrated Safety Management (ISM) is structured to manage and control work at the activity level. Fundamental to ISM is that all work will be performed safely while meeting the applicable institutional-, facility-, and activity-level expectations. High and medium initial risk activities require certain levels of independent peer and/or Environmental, Health & Safety subject matter expert reviews prior to authorization. A key responsibility of line management and chemical workers is to assign initial risk adequately, so that the proper reviews are obtained. Thus, the effectiveness of an ISM system is largely dependent upon the adequacy and accuracy of this initial risk determination. In the following presentation, a Risk Determination Model (RDM) is presented for physical, health and ecological hazards associated with materials. Magnitude of exposure (Le., dose or concentration), frequency, duration, and quantity are the four factors most difficult to capture in a research and development setting. They are factored into the determination, as a function of the quantity of material. Quantity and magnitude of exposure components are simplified by using boundary criteria. This RDM will promote conformity and consistency in the assignment of risk to hazardous material activities. In conclusion, the risk assessors (line manager and chemical worker) should be capable of more accurately assessing the risk of exposure to a specific chemical with regard to the employee, public, and the environment.

  16. Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Responsibility, and Performance Matrix | Department of Energy Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix Document offers guidance on how to recognize and assign energy savings performance contract (ESPC) risks and responsibilities using the risk, responsibility, and performance matrix, also known as RRPM.

  17. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  18. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  19. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-18

    This Guide provides non-mandatory risk management approaches for implementing the requirements of DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets. Supersedes DOE G 413.3-7.

  20. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  1. Risk in the Weapons Stockpile

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noone, Bailey C

    2012-08-14

    When it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile, risk must be as low as possible. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk.

  2. Risk Management Process Overview | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Management Process Overview Risk Management Process Overview figure depicting three tier risk management process The cybersecurity risk management process explained in the ...

  3. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    performed in PossibleRisk. [LEDTools] LEDTools is a general purpose linguistic evaluation tool and allows user defined universes of discourse and approximate reasoning rules, whereas PossibleRisk uses predefined universes of discourse (risk, attack, success, loss, and consequence) and rules. Also LEDTools has the capability to model a large number of threat scenarios with a graph and to integrate the scenarios (paths from the graph) into the linguistic evaluation. Example uses of PossibleRisk and LEDTools for the possibilistic evaluation of terrorist risk are provided in this report.

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Play Analysis and Digital Portfolio of Major Oil Reservoirs in the Permian Basin: Application and Transfer of Advanced Geological and Engineering Technologies for Incremental Production Opportunities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shirley P. Dutton; Eugene M. Kim; Ronald F. Broadhead; Caroline L. Breton; William D. Raatz; Stephen C. Ruppel; Charles Kerans

    2004-01-13

    A play portfolio is being constructed for the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, the largest onshore petroleum-producing basin in the United States. Approximately 1,300 reservoirs in the Permian Basin have been identified as having cumulative production greater than 1 MMbbl (1.59 x 10{sup 5} m{sup 3}) of oil through 2000. Of these significant-sized reservoirs, approximately 1,000 are in Texas and 300 in New Mexico. There are 32 geologic plays that have been defined for Permian Basin oil reservoirs, and each of the 1,300 major reservoirs was assigned to a play. The reservoirs were mapped and compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS) by play. The final reservoir shapefile for each play contains the geographic location of each reservoir. Associated reservoir information within the linked data tables includes RRC reservoir number and district (Texas only), official field and reservoir name, year reservoir was discovered, depth to top of the reservoir, production in 2000, and cumulative production through 2000. Some tables also list subplays. Play boundaries were drawn for each play; the boundaries include areas where fields in that play occur but are smaller than 1 MMbbl (1.59 x 10{sup 5} m{sup 3}) of cumulative production. Oil production from the reservoirs in the Permian Basin having cumulative production of >1 MMbbl (1.59 x 10{sup 5} m{sup 3}) was 301.4 MMbbl (4.79 x 10{sup 7} m{sup 3}) in 2000. Cumulative Permian Basin production through 2000 was 28.9 Bbbl (4.59 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3}). The top four plays in cumulative production are the Northwest Shelf San Andres Platform Carbonate play (3.97 Bbbl [6.31 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 3}]), the Leonard Restricted Platform Carbonate play (3.30 Bbbl [5.25 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 3}]), the Pennsylvanian and Lower Permian Horseshoe Atoll Carbonate play (2.70 Bbbl [4.29 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 3}]), and the San Andres Platform Carbonate play (2.15 Bbbl [3.42 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 3}]). Detailed studies of three reservoirs

  6. RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CHENG,L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

    2007-10-01

    The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences.

  7. New Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing New Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing February 11, 2016 - 10:37am Addthis Carbon Storage Model Carbon Storage Model The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), led by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), developed the simulation tools, which are designed to help evaluate environmental risks of carbon storage containment systems. Successful

  8. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  9. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-18

    Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

  10. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  11. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2008-09-16

    This Guide provides a framework for identifying and managing key technical, schedule, and cost risks through applying the requirements of DOE O 413.3A, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, dated 7-28-06. Canceled by DOE G 413.3-7A, dated 1-12-11. Does not cancel other directives.

  12. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  13. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  14. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  15. 7th Workshop on Risk Informed Regulation and Safety Culture ...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    their PRA. However, Qinshan will hire two U.S. PRA firms to develop its "Generation Risk Analysis" model. This summer, a team of Qinshan PSA personnel will visit South Texas...

  16. PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a report from the Peer Review Panel on activities within the Planning, Analysis and Evaluation Unit of the Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy.

  17. Monitoring EERE's Recovery Act Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-01-01

    Performance monitoring of Recovery Act projects within EERE has been an ongoing effort. Project recipients have been reporting technical and financial progress to project officers on a quarterly basis.

  18. Small Buildings and Small Portfolios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    systems, and processes * Producing replicable solutions that require a local origin but can be applied nationally * Advancing R&D of needed technologies and solutions 9 ...

  19. Portfolio Projects | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... Stephentown, New York Loan Guarantee 8 25 Million Mar 2012 TESLA ATVM Advanced Vehicles Manufacturing Tesla Motors Fremont, California Direct Loan 465 Million Jan 2010 9 USG ...

  20. PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Relatedly, the research community capable of conducting ... in the country in 2001 by the American Journal of Evaluation. ... a Ph.D. in Educational Psychology, Measurement and ...

  1. PAE Evaluation Portfolio Peer Review

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Midge Smith Center for Evaluation Effectiveness, home of the Evaluators' Institute, and she is the Director of the PhD in Public Policy and Administration program, and Associate ...

  2. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

  3. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO? sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO? storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO? sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO? and brine leakage. The simulation results are also used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.

  4. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruno, Michael

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  5. Simplified predictive models for CO2 sequestration performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; He, Jincong; Jin, Zhaoyang; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2015-09-30

    Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

  6. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dourson, M.L.

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  8. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  9. Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  10. Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  11. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  12. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  13. Supervisory Loan Specialist (Strategic Risk)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the Department of Energy (DOE) Loans Programs Office (LPO), Risk Management Division (RMD or LP-40) Strategic Risk Group (LP-40). The incumbent is the supervisor for the...

  14. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  15. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: ?Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors ?Enables analysis of different budget scenarios ?Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks ?Real-time analysis ?Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied ?Promotes solid budget defense

  16. Risk perception in developing countries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilbanks, T.J.; Rayner, S.F.

    1985-02-15

    The paper briefly reviews: (1) what risk perception means to most people in developing countries; (2) some of the modern-technology-related risks to which people in these countries are exposed; and (3) some research evidence about risk perception that gives hints about how such perceptions will evolve in developing countries. (ACR)

  17. Regulatory cost-risk study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)

  18. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, Trieu; Barrows, Clayton; Lopez, Anthony; Hale, Elaine; Dyson, Mark; Eurek, Kelly

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  19. Risk Assessment in the RI/FS process, and derivation of cleanup...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - Conceptual Site Model, fate and transport, remedial action objectives Human Health Risk Assessment * Multiple "scenarios" were evaluated, each with different exposure assumptions...

  20. Aware of the risks, the Federal Aviation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Aware of the risks, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 2013 announced a new policy that calls for quantified analysis of potential ocular hazards from glint and glare for PV installations planned at airports-and other organizations are calling for similar analyses. Commercial ray-tracing tools can be used to model glare occurrences, but are expensive and complicated to set-up, placing a significant burden on companies seeking to comply with the FAA requirement. New Tool Helps Private

  1. Photovoltaic Degradation Risk: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D. C.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2012-04-01

    The ability to accurately predict power delivery over the course of time is of vital importance to the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Important cost drivers include the efficiency with which sunlight is converted into power, how this relationship changes over time, and the uncertainty in this prediction. An accurate quantification of power decline over time, also known as degradation rate, is essential to all stakeholders - utility companies, integrators, investors, and researchers alike. In this paper we use a statistical approach based on historical data to quantify degradation rates, discern trends and quantify risks related to measurement uncertainties, number of measurements and methodologies.

  2. Eastern European risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Honey, J.A. )

    1992-01-01

    Here the authors assess Eastern European risk management practices through the evaluation of the nuclear power plants in the region. This evaluation is limited to the Soviet-designed and -built VVER-440 pressurized water reactors (PWRs) that are currently operating in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Russia, and the Ukraine and until recently operated at Greifswald in the former East Germany. This evaluation is based on the basic design of the plants, a safety evaluation of the Greifswald facility by representatives from the Federal Republic of Germany and personal visits by the author to Greifswald and Loviisa.

  3. Compliance & Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    environmental hazards and risks to protect human health and safety and the environment. ... Plans. Risk evaluation tools such as the Human Health and Ecological Risk Methods ...

  4. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  5. I&C Modeling in SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John A. Schroeder

    2012-06-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently have very limited instrumentation and control (I&C) modeling [1]. Most of the I&C components in the operating plant SPAR models are related to the reactor protection system. This was identified as a finding during the industry peer review of SPAR models. While the Emergency Safeguard Features (ESF) actuation and control system was incorporated into the Peach Bottom Unit 2 SPAR model in a recent effort [2], various approaches to expend resources for detailed I&C modeling in other SPAR models are investigated.

  6. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio

  7. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  8. IEA-Risk Quantification and Risk Management in Renewable Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Topics: Finance, Implementation, Market analysis Resource Type: Presentation, Lessons learnedbest practices Website: www.iea-retd.orgfilesRISK%20IEA-RETD%20(2011-6)....

  9. Risk Management RM | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Management RM Risk Management RM This tool is the process of continuous and iterative identification and control of project risks and opportunities. Risks can be technical, financial, or programmatic. The goal for the risk management system is to either avoid the risk's threat by taking preemptive action or to minimize the risks negative impacts on project performance. Project opportunities identified through the project risk management process can be handled in a similar manner with the

  10. DOE Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline DOE Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline May ...

  11. AMERIND Risk Annual Conference and Trade Fair

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the AMERIND Risk, this three-day conference includes risk management training, workers' safety, human resources, and more.

  12. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 1. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-05-01

    Contents: Introduction and Summary of Results; Facility Background; Facility Emissions; Atmospheric Dispersion and Deposition Modeling of Emissions; Human Health Risk Assessment; Screening Ecological Risk Assessment; Accident Analysis; Additional Analysis in Response to Peer Review Recommendations; References.

  13. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 8. Additional analysis in response to peer review recommendations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-05-01

    Contents: Introduction; Combustion Engineering; Air Dispersion and Deposition Modeling; Accident Analysis; Exposure Assessment; Toxicology; and Ecological Risk Assessment.

  14. Hazardous and Corrosive Gas Production in the Radiolysis of Water/Organic Mixtures in Model TRU Waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaVerne, Jay A.

    2005-06-01

    Experiments in combination with diffusion-kinetic modeling incorporating track structure simulations are used to examine the radiation chemistry of aqueous systems containing chlorinated hydrocarbons. Irradiations with both Co-60 gamma rays and alpha particles are employed in order to simulate typical mixed radiation environments encountered in waste management. The goal is to determine fundamental mechanisms, kinetics, and yields for the formation of potentially explosive gases and corrosive agents, such as H2 and HCl, respectively, in the radiolysis of water-organic mixtures. The radiation chemical systems studied are found throughout the DOE portfolio and are important in radioactive waste remediation and management.

  15. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Managing risk in software systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fletcher, S.K.; Jansma, R.M.; Murphy, M.D.

    1995-07-01

    A methodology for risk management in the design of software systems is presented. It spans security, safety, and correct operation of software within the context of its environment, and produces a risk analysis and documented risk management strategy. It is designed to be iteratively applied, to attain appropriate levels of detail throughout the analysis. The methodology and supporting tools are discussed. The methodology is critiqued relative to other research in the field. Some sample applications of the methodology are presented.

  17. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  18. EMAB Risk Subcommittee Interim Report

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ADVISORY BOARD Incorporating Risk and Sustainability into Decision Making Submitted by the ... Secondly, the Subcommittee is tasked with reviewing"incorporating sustainability into the ...

  19. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  20. ORISE: Crisis and Risk Communication

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office (ORO), ORISE provides crisis and risk communication support through the management of its Joint Information Center (JIC)...

  1. R00475--FM Risk Mgmt

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    to project success. The risk identification process on a project is typically one of brain- storming, and the usual rules of brainstorming apply: * The full project team should...

  2. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  3. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caudell, Thomas P.; Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O.; Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  4. Low Power and Shutdown Risk Assessment Benchmarking Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.Mitman, J. Julius, R. Berucio, M. Phillips, J. Grobbelaaar, D. Bley, R. Budniz

    2002-12-15

    (B204)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) insights are now used by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) to confirm the level of safety for plant operations and to justify changes in nuclear power plant operating requirements, both on an exception basis and as changeds to a plant's licensing basis. This report examines qualitative and quantitative risk assessments during shutdown plant states, providing feedback to utilities in the use of qualitative models for outage risk management, and also providing input to the development of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Low Power and Shutdown PRA Standard.

  5. New Technical Risk Management Development for Carbon Capture Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Letellier, Bruce; Edwards, Brian; Leclaire, Rene; Jones, Edward

    2012-04-30

    The basic CCSI objective of accelerating technology development and commercial deployment of carbon capture technologies through the extensive use of numerical simulation introduces a degree of unfamiliarity and novelty that potentially increases both of the traditional risk elements. In order to secure investor confidence and successfully accelerate the marketability of carbon capture technologies, it is critical that risk management decision tools be developed in parallel with numerical simulation capabilities and uncertainty quantification efforts. The focus of this paper is on the development of a technical risk model that incorporates the specific technology maturity development (level).

  6. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  7. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  8. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  9. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  10. Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

    2011-11-01

    As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operating plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.

  11. Recovery Act. Development of a Model Energy Conservation Training Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2012-07-05

    The overall objective of this project was to develop an updated model Energy Conservation training program for stationary engineers. This revision to the IUOE National Training Fund’s existing Energy Conservation training curriculum is designed to enable stationary engineers to incorporate essential energy management into routine building operation and maintenance tasks. The curriculum uses a blended learning approach that includes classroom, hands-on, computer simulation and web-based training in addition to a portfolio requirement for a workplace-based learning application. The Energy Conservation training program goal is development of a workforce that can maintain new and existing commercial buildings at optimum energy performance levels. The grant start date was July 6, 2010 and the project continued through September 30, 2012, including a three month non-funded extension.

  12. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational

  13. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-10-31

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it`s subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists.

  14. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  15. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Risk Assessment Tools D&D and Risk Assessment Tools ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computer based model, to evaluate alternatives in the sequencing of D&D work. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools (377.44 KB) More Documents & Publications An Automated JHA Tool, Making Safety Accessible Voluntary Protection Program Onsite Review, Oak Ridge Associated

  16. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs.

  17. Modeling-Computer Simulations | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the risk of inaccurate predictions.1 Potential Pitfalls Uncertainties in initial reservoir conditions and other model inputs can cause inaccuracies in simulations, which...

  18. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  19. ALLOCATING VENDOR RISKS IN THE HANFORD WASTE CLEANUP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keisler, Jeff M.; Buehring, William A.; McLaughlin, Peter D.; Robershotte, Mark A.; Whitfield, Ronald G.

    2004-05-15

    Organizations may view outsourcing as a way to eliminate risk. This application uses a decision analytic approach to determine which risks can be shared or shifted to vendors and which ones should be borne by the buyer. In this case, we found that allocating risks incorrectly could increase costs dramatically. This approach was used to develop the Request for Proposals (RFP) for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) privatization initiative for the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS). We describe this application and summarize technical and organizational lessons learned in the years following. The model used an assessment protocol to predict how vendors would react to proposed risk allocations in terms of their actions and their pricing.

  20. Ranking and Sequencing Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-08-13

    This database application (commonly called the Supermodel) provides a repository for managing critical facility/project information, allows the user to subjectively an objectively assess key criteria , quantify project risks, develop ROM cost estimates, determine facility/project end states, ultimately performing risk-based modeling to rank facilities/project based on risk, sequencing project schedules and provides an optimized recommended sequencing/scheduling of these projects which maximize the S&M cost savings to perform closure projects which benefit all stakeholders.

  1. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  2. Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  3. Federal Flood Risk Management Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard builds upon Executive Order (E.O.) 11988 and is to be incorporated into existing Federal department and agency processes used to implement E.O. 11988.

  4. Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, limiting, and managing the risks of proliferation and physical security for fuel cycle options. NE, in...

  5. Risk Management Tool Attributes: | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Management Tool Attributes: Risk Management Tool Attributes: Risk Management Tool Attributes: (140.27 KB) More Documents & Publications Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning Efficiency Idaho Operations AMWTP Fact Sheet Greenpower Trap Mufflerl System

  6. Mobius Risk Group LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mobius Risk Group LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Mobius Risk Group LLC Place: Houston, Texas Zip: TX 77056 Product: A risk advisor to energy-consuming companies, utilities...

  7. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  8. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study Documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The RiskMod Model is comprised of a set of risk simulation models, collectively referred to as RiskSim; a set of computer programs that manages data referred to as Data Management Procedures; and RevSim, a model that calculates net revenues. RiskMod interacts with the AURORA Model, the RAM2007, and the ToolKit Model during the process of performing the Risk Analysis Study. AURORA is the computer model being used to perform the Market Price Forecast Study (see Market Price Forecast Study, WP-07-E-BPA-03); the RAM2007 is the computer model being used to calculate rates (see Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05); and the ToolKit is the computer model being used to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard (see Section 3 in the Risk Analysis Study, WP-07-E-BPA-04). Variations in monthly loads, resources, natural gas prices, forward market electricity prices, transmission expenses, and aluminum smelter benefit payments are simulated in RiskSim. Monthly spot market electricity prices for the simulated loads, resources, and natural gas prices are estimated by the AURORA Model. Data Management Procedures facilitate the format and movement of data that flow to and/or from RiskSim, AURORA, and RevSim. RevSim estimates net revenues using risk data from RiskSim, spot market electricity prices from AURORA, loads and resources data from the Load Resource Study, WP-07-E-BPA-01, various revenues from the Revenue Forecast component of the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05, and rates and expenses from the RAM2007. Annual average surplus energy revenues, purchased power expenses, and section 4(h)(10)(C) credits calculated by RevSim are used in the Revenue Forecast and the RAM2007. Heavy Load Hour (HLH) and Light Load Hour (LLH) surplus and deficit energy values from RevSim are used in the Transmission Expense Risk Model. Net revenues estimated for each simulation by RevSim are input into the ToolKit Model

  9. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study Documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    The RiskMod Model is comprised of a set of risk simulation models, collectively referred to as RiskSim; a set of computer programs that manages data referred to as Data Management Procedures; and RevSim, a model that calculates net revenues. RiskMod interacts with the AURORA Model, the RAM2007, and the ToolKit Model during the process of performing the Risk Analysis Study. AURORA is the computer model being used to perform the Market Price Forecast Study (see Market Price Forecast Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-03); the RAM2007 is the computer model being used to calculate rates (see Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-05); and the ToolKit is the computer model being used to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard (see Section 3 in the Risk Analysis Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-04). Variations in monthly loads, resources, natural gas prices, forward market electricity prices, transmission expenses, and aluminum smelter benefit payments are simulated in RiskSim. Monthly spot market electricity prices for the simulated loads, resources, and natural gas prices are estimated by the AURORA Model. Data Management Procedures facilitate the format and movement of data that flow to and/or from RiskSim, AURORA, and RevSim. RevSim estimates net revenues using risk data from RiskSim, spot market electricity prices from AURORA, loads and resources data from the Load Resource Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-01, various revenues from the Revenue Forecast component of the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-FSBPA-05, and rates and expenses from the RAM2007. Annual average surplus energy revenues, purchased power expenses, and section 4(h)(10)(C) credits calculated by RevSim are used in the Revenue Forecast and the RAM2007. Heavy Load Hour (HLH) and Light Load Hour (LLH) surplus and deficit energy values from RevSim are used in the Transmission Expense Risk Model. Net revenues estimated for each simulation by RevSim are input into the Tool

  10. Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Facility Risk Ranking Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking The CNS has purview of over ninety EM nuclear facilities across the DOE complex. To ensure that limited resources are applied in a risk-informed and balanced approach, the CNS performed a methodical assessment of the EM nuclear facilities. This risk-informed approach provides a data-driven foundation on which to construct a balanced set of operating plans and staff assignments. 2015 Risk Analysis Methodology.jpg

  11. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 5. Human health risk assessment; evaluation of potential risks from multipathway exposure to emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-05-01

    The report provide estimates of: (1) individual risks based on central tendency exposure; (2) individual risks based on maximum environmental concentrations; (3) risks to highly exposed or susceptible subgroups of the population (e.g., subsistence farmers and school children); (4) risks associated with specific activities that may result in elevated exposures (e.g., subsistence fishermen and deer hunters); and (5) population risk. This approach allows for the estimation of risks to specific segments of the population taking into consideration activity patterns, number of individuals, and actual locations of individuals in these subgroups with respect to the facility. The fate and transport modeling of emissions from the facility to estimate exposures to identified subgroups is described.

  12. Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) was established to assist DOE in the appropriate and effective use of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear safety related activities.

  13. Envisory Financial Risk Management | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Envisory Financial Risk Management Jump to: navigation, search Name: Envisory Financial Risk Management Place: Mnchen, Bavaria, Germany Zip: 80331 Sector: Renewable Energy...

  14. Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic ...

  15. AMERIND Risk Annual Conference and Trade Fair

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the AMERIND Risk, this three-day conference includes trainings in risk management, workers' safety, human resources, and more.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  17. Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Thompson, Julie; Leclaire, Rene; Edward, Bryan; Jones, Edward

    2014-06-01

    Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, riskbased technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by an integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.

  18. Rapid Risk Assessment: FY05 Annual Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene; Millard, W. David; Gelston, Gariann M.; Pelton, Mitch A.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Strenge, Dennis L.; Lee, Cheegwan; Sivaraman, Chitra; Simpson, Mary J.; Young, Joan K.; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.; Downing, Timothy R.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.; Hachmeister, Lon E.

    2006-03-06

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing decision support tools that will assist in the transition of incident information into Protective Action Recommendations (PARs) that are understandable and can be executed in a real-world, operational environment. During emergencies, responders must rapidly assess risks and decide on the best course of actionall within minutes to hours. PNNL is blending existing modeling and decision support technology to develop new methods for transitioning science-based threat assessment to PARs. The rapid risk assessment tool will be both understandable and applicable to the emergency management community and would be a valuable tool during any water security-related incident. In 2005, PNNL demonstrated the integration of the multi-thematic modeling with emergency management decision support tools to create a Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) tool that will transition risk to PARs that assist in responding to or mitigating the direct and indirect impacts of the incident(s). The RRA tool does this by aligning multi-thematic modeling capabilities with real-world response zones established by emergency and site operations managers. The RRA tool uses the risk assessment tool to drive prognostic models that use the type of incident, time of impact, severity of impact, and duration of impact to select the most appropriate PAR. Because PARs (and the thresholds by which they are selected) are jointly established by the technologists and the emergency management and operations decision makers, the science-based risk assessment can transition into a recommendation that can be understood and executed by people in the field.

  19. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  20. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.