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Sample records for modeling portfolio risk

  1. Extremal Financial Risk Models and Portfolio Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Zhengjun

    Extremal Financial Risk Models and Portfolio Evaluation Zhengjun Zhang Department of Statistics assets. An important application of the proposed method is to calculate VaRs (Value at Risk) and evaluate, financial risk, portfolio evaluation. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60G70, 62G32, 62P20. 0 #12

  2. Portfolio Risk Modeling | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History ViewMayo, Maryland:NPIProtectio1975) |Texas: EnergyOklahoma:Ewen,Risk Modeling Jump to: navigation,

  3. Bayesian Network Models of Portfolio Risk and Return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Catherine; Shenoy, Prakash P.

    2000-01-01

    that in country-specific diversified portfolios, significant mis-measurement of risk occurs if the market proxy does not include global factors. The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) (Ross 1976) and other multi-factor models (see Elton and Gruber 1997) extends... Rate (IR), Stock Market (SM), Oil Industry (OI), and Oil Company Stock Price (SP). At the quantitative level, we specify conditional probability distributions for each variable in the network. Each variable has a set of possible values called its state...

  4. MEAN-RISK OPTIMIZATION MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 1 Mean-risk optimization models for electricity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    the model via uncertain electricity demand, heat demand, spot prices, and future prices. The objectiveMEAN-RISK OPTIMIZATION MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 1 Mean-risk optimization models for electricity portfolio management Andreas Eichhorn and Werner R¨omisch Abstract-- The possibility

  5. A credit risk model for agricultural loan portfolios under the new Basel Capital Accord 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Juno

    2005-08-29

    The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) provides added emphasis to the development of portfolio credit risk models. An important regulatory change in Basel II is the differentiated treatment in measuring capital requirements for the corporate...

  6. Financial Innovation and Portfolio Risks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simsek, Alp

    I illustrate the effect of financial innovation on portfolio risks by using an example with risk-sharing needs and belief disagreements. I consider two types of innovation: product innovation, formalized as an expansion ...

  7. Causal Network Methods for Integrated Project Portfolio Risk Analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Govan, Paul

    2014-08-06

    Corporate portfolio risk analysis is of primary concern for many organizations, as the success of strategic objectives greatly depends on an accurate risk assessment. Current risk analysis methods typically involve statistical models of risk...

  8. DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eichhorn, Andreas

    DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION VIA POLYHEDRAL RISK FUNCTIONALS production and trading based on probabilistic knowledge about future uncertainties such as demands and spot- called polyhedral risk functionals which, though being non-linear mappings, preserve linearity structures

  9. DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION VIA POLYHEDRAL RISK FUNCTIONALS the dynamic decision structure appropriately. In energy risk management, which is typically carried out ex, for integrating risk management into a stochastic optimization framework, risk has to be quantified in a definite

  10. Stochastic Optimization of Electricity Portfolios: Scenario Tree Modeling and Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    of risk manage- ment into power production planning and trading based on stochastic programming. In energy and (physical) power trading. Moreover, risk management and stochastic optimization rest upon the same type of stochastic programming with regard to application in power management. In particular we discuss issues

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT IN REAL OPTIONS BASED PHARMACEUTICAL PORTFOLIO PLANNING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maranas, Costas

    RISK MANAGEMENT IN REAL OPTIONS BASED PHARMACEUTICAL PORTFOLIO PLANNING Michael J. Rogers, Anshuman valuations and a risk management analysis for balancing risk versus reward tradeoffs. The resulting valuation that minimize risk for a specified level of return, to begin Phase I clinical testing from a set of candidate

  12. Empirical Analysis of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in Portfolio Selection Problem 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Liyuan 1988-

    2012-12-11

    Safety first criterion and mean-shortfall criterion both explore cases of assets allocation with downside risk. In this paper, I compare safety first portfolio selection problem and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization problem, considering risk...

  13. Microsoft PowerPoint -Risk_Portfolio_Manager(RPM)_overview_Under...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUnderSecDOE2011V4 Final 3-22-2011.ppt Read-Only Compatibili Microsoft PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUn...

  14. QuPARA: Query-Driven Large-Scale Portfolio Aggregate Risk Analysis on MapReduce

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rau-Chaplin, Andrew

    QuPARA: Query-Driven Large-Scale Portfolio Aggregate Risk Analysis on MapReduce Andrew Rau and reinsurance companies use stochastic simulation techniques for portfolio risk analysis. Their risk portfolios framework for portfolio risk analysis that facilitates answering a rich variety of catastrophic risk queries

  15. RISK AVERSION AND TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIOS Guy MEUNIER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    in a technology with a positive expected return. If the technology with the lower expected cost is more risky than to produce with each technology. One technology has a lower expected marginal cost than the other, and costly technology to reduce its risk. The influence of correlation is emphasized. As the supply

  16. Understanding Enterprise Risk Across an Aquisition Portfolio: A Grounded Theory Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirthlin, Major Joseph R.

    2008-02-26

    Every acquisition program contains risks. But what impact do these risks have on the entire portfolio of acquisition activities? What does risk at the Enterprise level really mean? For example, risk collectively could ...

  17. PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT OF SA WATER'S LARGE DAMS by David S. Bowles1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT OF SA WATER'S LARGE DAMS by David S. Bowles1 , Andrew M. Parsons2 , Loren R. Anderson3 and Terry F. Glover4 ABSTRACT This paper summarises the Portfolio Risk Assessment (PRA a reconnaissance-level engineering assessment and risk assessment. These assessments were performed for floods

  18. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain;Modeling Energy Taxes and Credits: The Genco's Choice · Each Genco has a portfolio of power plants · Each power plant can have different supply costs and transaction costs · Supply costs can reflect capital

  19. On the Aggregation of Local Risk Models for Global Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    On the Aggregation of Local Risk Models for Global Risk Management Greg Anderson Vice President: portfolio risk, total risk, optimization, positive definite. 2 #12;1 Introduction Portfolio managers is a revised version of an article written in 2003 under the title "Forecasting Total Risk". #12;Abstract Given

  20. January 2006 L-1 Appendix L: The Portfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    worksheet that calculates energy and costs associated with meeting regional requirements for electricity principles. A flow diagram of the overall modeling process orients the reader to where the portfolio model of uncertainties, like load and hydro generation, are to some extent separable from the rest of the model. (This

  1. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain-term solution (e.g.,are long-term solution (e.g., solar power and wind power (solar power and wind power Heavy user of fossil fuels:Heavy user of fossil fuels: Electric power industryElectric power industry

  2. PAMM header will be provided by the publisher Polyhedral risk measures in electricity portfolio optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    , ..., T where T = 365 · 24. The objective is to satisfy an uncertain time-dependent electricity demand is represented by a multivariate data process = (1, ..., T ) containing electricity demand, spot and futurePAMM header will be provided by the publisher Polyhedral risk measures in electricity portfolio

  3. Risk assessment methodology applied to counter IED research & development portfolio prioritization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shevitz, Daniel W; O' Brien, David A; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Chavez, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to protect the United States from the ever increasing threat of domestic terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has significantly increased research activities to counter the terrorist use of explosives. More over, DHS S&T has established a robust Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Program to Deter, Predict, Detect, Defeat, and Mitigate this imminent threat to the Homeland. The DHS S&T portfolio is complicated and changing. In order to provide the ''best answer'' for the available resources, DHS S&T would like some ''risk based'' process for making funding decisions. There is a definite need for a methodology to compare very different types of technologies on a common basis. A methodology was developed that allows users to evaluate a new ''quad chart'' and rank it, compared to all other quad charts across S&T divisions. It couples a logic model with an evidential reasoning model using an Excel spreadsheet containing weights of the subjective merits of different technologies. The methodology produces an Excel spreadsheet containing the aggregate rankings of the different technologies. It uses Extensible Logic Modeling (ELM) for logic models combined with LANL software called INFTree for evidential reasoning.

  4. Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2003-03-10

    protect a power purchase portfolio against market risks. Facing this question, a multicriterial linear stochastic optimisation model has been developed. It is based

  5. Portfolio Analysis & Recommended Plan Chapter 6 described how the Plan addresses cost and risk, and introduces the ideas of a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Portfolio Analysis & Recommended Plan Chapter 6 described how the Plan addresses cost and risk for thinking about risk management. For a simple financial instrument, such as an insurance policy, they might impacts, and risks associated with the feasibility of developing the technologies in sufficient quantity

  6. Downside Risk Constraints and Currency Hedging in International Portfolios: the Asian and Late-2000 Crisis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Ying

    2012-02-14

    The Financial Crisis, indicate that SF portfolio outperforms MV portfolio during most of the times, this result is especially obvious for Indonesian and Thailand....

  7. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes Electric Power Supply Chain Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain in their power plants. This paper proposes significant extensions to the electric power supply chain network generators faced with a portfolio of power plant options and subject to pollution taxes. We then demonstrate

  8. Modeling the Impact of Product Portfolio on the Economic and Environmental Performance of Recycling Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dahmus, Jeffrey B.

    hrough the development of a general model of electronics recycling systems, the effect of product portfolio choices on economic and environmental system performance is explored. The general model encompasses the three main ...

  9. Proceedings of the 1998 USCOLD Annual Lecture, Buffalo, New York. August 1998 PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT David S. Bowles1 , Loren R. Anderson2 , Terry F. Glover3 on to provide the basis for an effective and efficient program for managing and reducing dam safety risksProceedings of the 1998 USCOLD Annual Lecture, Buffalo, New York. August 1998 PORTFOLIO RISK

  10. Real property portfolio management : a decision-support model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schcolnik, Andres E

    1988-01-01

    In the 1980's corporate real estate has assumed a more active role in the strategic planning of American corporations. However, the tools to accurately evaluate the performance of corporate real property portfolios are ...

  11. A Micro-foundations Model of Dollarization with Network Externalities and Portfolio Choice: The

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -in°ationary Bolivia and Peru to be well explained by standard `portfolio balance' variables. The primary aim of value, unit of account and/or medium of exchange. Naive models predict that the process would

  12. Mean-Risk Optimization of Electricity Portfolios Using Multiperiod Polyhedral Risk Measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    to satisfy a stochastic electricity demand: electricity spot market, two different types of supply contracts. Stochasticity enters the model via uncertain electricity demand, heat demand, spot prices, and future prices to the requirements of a typical Germnan municipal power utility, which has to serve an electricity demand and a heat

  13. Energy Procurement Portfolios and Production Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    2011 Removed Energy Storage System (ESS) concept ­ Expensive to implement ­ High loss rates make ESS1 Energy Procurement Portfolios and Production Planning Enterprise-wide Optimization 13 October (stochastic modeling) Setting of the "risk factor" must reflect your operational reality Electricity pricing

  14. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langner, R.; Hendron, B.; Bonnema, E.

    2014-08-01

    The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

  15. A General Asset-Liability Management Model for the Efficient Simulation of Portfolios of Life Insurance Policies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crauel, Hans

    A General Asset-Liability Management Model for the Efficient Simulation of Portfolios of Life and a stronger competition have increased the importance of stochastic asset-liability management (ALM) models development of life insurance products. Keywords: asset-liability management, participating policies

  16. Time Consistent Recursive Risk Measures Under Regime Switching ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-02-04

    The proper description of dynamic information correlation among individual ... tic security market and investment risk in multi-stage portfolio selection models ...

  17. After the Flood [Portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Zante, Gary; Silvestri, Lisa

    2006-01-01

    Knopf, Silvestri / After the Flood Portfolio Canal Boulevard18.1 Silvestri / After the Flood Portfolio Above: LakeviewChurch Silvestri / After the Flood Portfolio St. Bernard

  18. Tactical Portfolio Construction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yue

    2012-01-01

    Chapter 2 Portfolio Construction Data source In thisTactical Portfolio Construction A thesis submitted inTHESIS Tactical Portfolio Construction by Yue Chen Master of

  19. Model-Driven Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    1 123 Model-Driven Risk Analysis The CORAS Approach | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | >springer.com ISBN 978-3-642-12322-1 Model-DrivenRiskAnalysis Mass Soldal Lund Bjørnar Solhaug Ketil Stølen Lund·Solhaug Stølen Lund · Solhaug · Stølen Model-Driven Risk Analysis The term"risk"is known from many

  20. Optimization of a petroleum producing assets portfolio: development of an advanced computer model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aibassov, Gizatulla

    2009-05-15

    Portfolios of contemporary integrated petroleum companies consist of a few dozen Exploration and Production (E&P) projects that are usually spread all over the world. Therefore, it is important not only to manage individual ...

  1. Modeling renewable portfolio standards for the annual energy outlook 1998 - electricity market module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM) Submodule. For the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), the EMM has been modified to represent Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which are included in many of the Federal and state proposals for deregulating the electric power industry. A RPS specifies that electricity suppliers must produce a minimum level of generation using renewable technologies. Producers with insufficient renewable generating capacity can either build new plants or purchase {open_quotes}credits{close_quotes} from other suppliers with excess renewable generation. The representation of a RPS involves revisions to the ECP, EFD, and the EFP. The ECP projects capacity additions required to meet the minimum renewable generation levels in future years. The EFD determines the sales and purchases of renewable credits for the current year. The EFP incorporates the cost of building capacity and trading credits into the price of electricity.

  2. Financial Risk Analysis and Heavy Tails 1 Historical Discussion of Risk and Return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taqqu, Murad

    Financial Risk Analysis and Heavy Tails 1 Historical Discussion of Risk and Return Brief history of nancial risk Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory by Markowitz Risk and Factor models Value at Risk 2 More on Value at Risk Historical Simulation Parametric VaR present di erent distributional models give overview

  3. Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Planning Electricity Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Planning Electricity Portfolios 2009/11/30­12/01 István Maros Electricity Portfolio #12;Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Outline 1 Introduction 2 Computational Efficiency 3 Electricity Portfolio Approximate

  4. Financial Risk Analysis and Heavy Tails 1 Historical Discussion of Risk and Return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taqqu, Murad

    Financial Risk Analysis and Heavy Tails 1 Historical Discussion of Risk and Return ffl Brief history of financial risk ffl Mean­Variance Portfolio Theory by Markowitz ffl Risk and Factor models ffl Value at Risk 2 More on Value at Risk ffl Historical Simulation ffl Parametric VaR -- present different

  5. Using a Risk-informed Approach to Find a Solution for Spillway Deficiencies with Upstream

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    · Reclamation for Portfolio Risk Mgt ~ 1995 · UK for Portfolio RAs ~ 2000 ­ Justify dam safety CAPEX in utility

  6. Statistical Physics Approach to Models of Risk Reimer Kuhn

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kühn, Reimer

    · Estimation of risk ­ Market: potential negative fluctuation of portfolio-value (stock-prices, exchange rates (asset values of firms, ratings, stock-prices) ­ Operational: potential losses incurred by process & dynamic nature of relations: terminal­mainframe/input errors­results/manufacturer­supplier relations

  7. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  8. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix J: The Regional Portfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................ 10 Capacity and Costs Related to Capacity ............................................................................................... 15 Variable Capacity.......................................................................................................................... 28 Modeling Energy-Limited Resources

  9. Proceedings of the 1998 USCOLD Annual Lecture, Buffalo, New York. August 1998 PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT David S. Bowles1 , Loren R. Anderson2 , Terry F. Glover3 , and Sanjay S. Chauhan4 ABSTRACT Dam owners, engineers and regulators who are responsible for the safety of groups of dams need to prioritize dam safety evaluations or funding for structural and non

  10. Modeling Risks in Infrastructure Asset Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seyedolshohadaie, Seyed Reza

    2012-10-19

    The goal of this dissertation research is to model risk in delivery, operation and maintenance phases of infrastructure asset management. More specifically, the two main objectives of this research are to quantify and measure financial risk...

  11. Essays in asset pricing and portfolio choice 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illeditsch, Philipp Karl

    2009-05-15

    In the ?rst essay, I decompose in?ation risk into (i) a part that is correlated with real returns on the market portfolio and factors that determine investor’s preferences and investment opportunities and (ii) a residual part. I show that only...

  12. Annual Report: EPAct Complementary Program's Ultra-Deepwater R&D Portfolio and Unconventional Resources R&D Portfolio (30 September 2012)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,; Rose, Kelly; Hakala, Alexandra; Guthrie, George

    2012-09-30

    This report summarizes FY13 research activities performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Office of Research and Development (ORD), along with its partners in the Regional University Alliance (RUA) to fulfill research needs under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) Section 999?s Complementary Program. Title IX, Subtitle J, Section 999A(d) of EPAct 2005 authorizes $50 million per year of federal oil and gas royalties, rents and bonus payments for an oil and natural gas research and development effort, the Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum Resources Research Program. Section 999 further prescribes four program elements for the effort, one of which is the Complementary Research Program that is to be performed by NETL. This document lays out the plan for the research portfolio for the Complementary Research Program, with an emphasis on the 2013 funding. The Complementary Program consists of two research portfolios focused on domestic resources: (1) the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio (UDW) (focused on hydrocarbons in reservoirs in extreme environments) and (2) the Unconventional Resources Portfolio (UCR) (focused on hydrocarbons in shale reservoirs). These two portfolios address the science base that enables these domestic resources to be produced responsibly, informing both regulators and operators. NETL is relying on a core Department of Energy-National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) competency in engineered-natural systems to develop this science base, allowing leveraging of decades of investment. NETL?s Complementary Research Program research portfolios support the development of unbiased research and information for policymakers and the public, performing rapid predictions of possible outcomes associated with unexpected events, and carrying out quantitative assessments for energy policy stakeholders that accurately integrate the risks of safety and environmental impacts. The objective of this body of work is to build the scientific understanding and assessment tools necessary to develop the confidence that key domestic oil and gas resources can be produced safely and in an environmentally sustainable way. For the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with exploration and production in extreme offshore environments. This includes: (1) using experimental studies to improve understanding of key parameters (e.g., properties and behavior of materials) tied to loss-of-control events in deepwater settings, (2) compiling data on spatial variability for key properties used to characterize and simulate the natural and engineered components involved in extreme offshore settings, and (3) utilizing findings from (1) and (2) in conjunction with integrated assessment models to model worst-case scenarios, as well as assessments of most likely scenarios relative to potential risks associated with flow assurance and loss of control. This portfolio and approach is responsive to key Federal-scale initiatives including the Ocean Energy Safety Advisory Committee (OESC). In particular, the findings and recommendations of the OESC?s Spill Prevention Subcommittee are addressed by aspects of the Complementary Program research. The Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio is also aligned with some of the goals of the United States- Department of the Interior (US-DOI) led Alaska Interagency Working Group (AIWG) which brings together state, federal, and tribal government personnel in relation to energy-related issues and needs in the Alaskan Arctic. For the Unconventional Fossil Resources Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a sufficient scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with the oil/gas resources in shale reservoirs that require hydraulic fracturing and/or other engineering measures to produce. The major areas of focus include: (1) improving predictions of fugitive methane and greenhouse gas emissions, (2) pr

  13. EMPIRICAL MODELLING OF WINDTHROW RISK USING GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, Stephen

    EMPIRICAL MODELLING OF WINDTHROW RISK USING GIS Naa Lanquaye (Supervisor: Dr. Steve Mitchell and portability of empirical models. · To produce windthrow hazard maps using variables available in GIS databases

  14. A Formal Model of Auditor Independence Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turner, Jerry L.; Mock, Theodore J.; Srivastava, Rajendra P.

    2002-01-01

    Although the published literature on auditor independence is extensive, an accepted comprehensive theory, framework or model of auditor independence risk does not exist. This paper develops a formal model of auditor ...

  15. Energy Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance While Deploying Innovation Energy Department's Loan Portfolio Continues Strong Performance While Deploying Innovation...

  16. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.

    2010-01-01

    Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment Christina E. Cowan-implications for chemical risk assessment. J Environ MonitJM. 2006. Screening level risk assessment model for chemical

  17. Modelling and Evaluating Longevity Risk A Case Study UK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weber, Stefan

    Modelling and Evaluating Longevity Risk A Case Study UK Dr. Claudia Prévôt LUH with Longevity #12;Modelling and Evaluating Longevity Risk4 Mortality risk · Misestimation/error risk, Solvency II,...) Risks associated with Longevity #12;Modelling and Evaluating Longevity Risk5 Mortality

  18. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate Portfolio Manager; add a property and enter details...

  19. ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing Processes and Applications to Accelerate Commercial Use of Nanomaterials, January 2011 ITP Nanomanufacturing:...

  20. Portfolio Choice and Life Insurance H. Huang, M. Milevsky and J. Wang

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Huaxiong

    Insurance We study a class of portfolio choice problems that combine life insurance and labor in- come face value of life insurance is remarkably insensitive to the family's risk aversion. KEYWORDS: Actuarial Finance, Personal Risk Management, Portfolio Theory, Hamilton- Jacobi-Bellman Equation, Similarity

  1. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.

    2012-07-01

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  2. Risk Assessment Coherent Risks: An Axiomatic Approach Relation with Cooperative Game Concluding Remarks Risk, Coherency and Cooperative Game

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Haijun

    Risk Assessment Coherent Risks: An Axiomatic Approach Relation with Cooperative Game Concluding 2011 1 / 30 #12;Risk Assessment Coherent Risks: An Axiomatic Approach Relation with Cooperative Game Concluding Remarks Outline 1 Risk Assessment Risk = Volatility? Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) Risk

  3. Use of Solar and Wind as a Physical Hedge against Price Variability within a Generation Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jenkin, T.; Diakov, V.; Drury, E.; Bush, B.; Denholm, P.; Milford, J.; Arent, D.; Margolis, R.; Byrne, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study provides a framework to explore the potential use and incremental value of small- to large-scale penetration of solar and wind technologies as a physical hedge against the risk and uncertainty of electricity cost on multi-year to multi-decade timescales. Earlier studies characterizing the impacts of adding renewable energy (RE) to portfolios of electricity generators often used a levelized cost of energy or simplified net cash flow approach. In this study, we expand on previous work by demonstrating the use of an 8760 hourly production cost model (PLEXOS) to analyze the incremental impact of solar and wind penetration under a wide range of penetration scenarios for a region in the Western U.S. We do not attempt to 'optimize' the portfolio in any of these cases. Rather we consider different RE penetration scenarios, that might for example result from the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to explore the dynamics, risk mitigation characteristics and incremental value that RE might add to the system. We also compare the use of RE to alternative mechanisms, such as the use of financial or physical supply contracts to mitigate risk and uncertainty, including consideration of their effectiveness and availability over a variety of timeframes.

  4. Projected Benefits of EERE's Portfolio - FY 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-11-17

    This collection of data tables and charts shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  5. Frankie Phua Executive Director and Head of Credit & Country Risk Management Division

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaudhuri, Sanjay

    Frankie Phua Executive Director and Head of Credit & Country Risk Management Division UOB Frankie Phua is the Executive Director and the Global Head of the Credit & Country Risk Management Division (PD, LGD and EAD), economic capital modelling, credit portfolio risk management, counterparty credit

  6. PORTFOLIO | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative Fuelsof EnergyAprilEnergy EEREPlateau TrainingeTrack,1 POLICY FLASH06PORTFOLIO

  7. Modelling risk and risking models: the diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Donovan, Amy R.; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-27

    This article examines the science-policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods...

  8. Model Risk in Finance Department of Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stine, Robert A.

    worth taking Statistical issues Multiplicity Transformations to obtain "independence" Orthogonality Year Valueof$100Investment Case-Shiller Housing Total Stock Market 3 #12;Wharton default Correlation risk Regulatory risk Reputation risk Operational risk Systemic risk, market risk

  9. Portfolio Manager Space Type Discussion

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation, given through the DOE's Technical Assistance Program (TAP), provides a discussion about space/type in regards to the Portfolio Manager Initiative.

  10. Portfolio Manager Space Type Discussion

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation, given through the DOE's Technical Assitance Program (TAP), provides a discussion about space/type in regards to the Portfolio Manager Initiative.

  11. MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Deployed Military Personnel After

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, Robert K. D.

    MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Deployed a retrospective probabilistic risk assessment for military personnel potentially exposed to insecticides during, and cypermethrin used for residual sprays. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our risk assessment (estimated

  12. Modeling dependencies in Financial Risk Management BMI Master Thesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    Copulas Modeling dependencies in Financial Risk Management BMI Master Thesis #12;Modeling dependencies in financial risk management 2 #12;Modeling dependencies in financial risk management 3 Preface integrated in the study. For the purpose of extending my knowledge on Financial Risk Management

  13. Synchronization and portfolio performance of threatened salmon Jonathan W. Moore1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LETTER Synchronization and portfolio performance of threatened salmon Jonathan W. Moore1 , Michelle Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA 98110, USA 2 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University salmon decreased risk-adjusted portfolio performance (the ratio of port- folio productivity to variance

  14. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01

    and the individual high tech and manufacturing sectorportfolio results with the high tech sector results to showsector portfolios, high tech and manufacturing portfolios,

  15. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January...

  16. Generating Reports & Graphs in Portfolio Manager | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Generating Reports & Graphs in Portfolio Manager Generating Reports & Graphs in Portfolio Manager This presentation, given through the DOE's Technical Assitance Program (TAP),...

  17. www.cmis.csiro.au ModellingModelling Operational RiskOperational Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blennerhassett, Peter

    -18% on the business line level) The Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA) Internal model for 56 risk cells (7 event types x 8 business line) #12;www.cmis.csiro.au BCBS has identified the following 7 risk event types, cheque forgery, damage from computer hacking Employment practices and workplace safety: e.g. workers

  18. Current Research Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would like submit theCovalent Bonding in ActinideRailCurrent Research Portfolio Sign In About |

  19. Research Portfolio Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II) byMultiday Production of SOA inResearch Portfolio Map Welcome to the

  20. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  1. Model-based Risk Assessment What does model-based mean?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Model-based Risk Assessment What does model-based mean? Model-based means based on modelling keeping a good overview at the same time. What does Risk Assessment mean? A risk assessment is a process to change the system in order to reduce these indicated risks. Why Risk Assessment? IT-systems get bigger

  2. A Denotational Model for Component-Based Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    A Denotational Model for Component-Based Risk Analysis Gyrd Brændeland1,2, , Atle Refsdal2 by traditional risk analysis methods. This paper ad- dresses this problem from a theoretical perspective by proposing a deno- tational model for component-based risk analysis. In order to model the probabilistic

  3. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    & Publications Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration...

  4. Resource portfolio management: bundling process 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Worthington, William John

    2009-05-15

    Managers within firms seek to align their portfolio of capabilities to best respond to their competitive environment. Processes used by firms to acquire resources, bundle those resources into capabilities, and then leverage ...

  5. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  6. A partial internal model for longevity risk Sren Fiig Jarner

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Møller, Thomas

    longevity benchmark, systematic and unsystematic risk. The Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension FundA partial internal model for longevity risk Søren Fiig Jarner and Thomas Møller April 23, 2013 Abstract. This paper proposes a simple partial internal model for longevity risk within the Solvency 2

  7. Using Hidden Markov Models to Evaluate the Risks of Intrusions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vigna, Giovanni

    Using Hidden Markov Models to Evaluate the Risks of Intrusions System Architecture and Model limited to manual risk evaluations that are not suitable for real-time use. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate network and system risk. These approaches are generally limited to manual processes

  8. Research Article Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miller, Barton P.

    Research Article Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models Maxime Frydman,1 Guifré Ruiz,2 to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common of these secure development methodologies share one essential risk analysis activity, called threat modeling [4

  9. Applying stochastic programming models in financial risk management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xi

    2010-01-01

    This research studies two modelling techniques that help seek optimal strategies in financial risk management. Both are based on the stochastic programming methodology. The first technique is concerned with market risk ...

  10. Essays on Incorporating Risk Modeling Techniques in Agriculture 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Larsen, Ryan A.

    2012-10-19

    Measuring, modeling, and managing risk has always been an important task for researchers. Many of the traditional assumptions relied on in risk research, such as the assumption of normality and single period optimization, have proven too...

  11. Precautionary Measures for Credit Risk Management in Jump Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Egami, Masahiko

    2011-01-01

    Sustaining efficiency and stability by properly controlling the equity to asset ratio is one of the most important and difficult challenges in bank management. Due to unexpected and abrupt decline of asset values, a bank must closely monitor its net worth as well as market conditions, and one of its important concerns is when to raise more capital so as not to violate capital adequacy requirements. In this paper, we model the tradeoff between avoiding costs of delay and premature capital raising, and solve the corresponding optimal stopping problem. In order to model defaults in a bank's loan/credit business portfolios, we represent its net worth by Levy processes, and solve explicitly for the double exponential jump diffusion process and for a general spectrally negative Levy process.

  12. Fragility of CVaR in portfolio optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lim, A.E.B.; Shanthikumar, J.G.; Vahn, G.-Y.

    2009-01-01

    of CVar in portfolio optimization A.E.B. Lim, UC Berkeleyof CVaR in portfolio optimization A . E . B . Lim* J.G.data-driven portfolio optimization. We show that portfolios

  13. Flexible regression models for ROC and risk analysis, with or without a gold standard.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Branscum, AJ; Johnson, WO; Hanson, TE; Baron, AT

    2015-01-01

    models for ROC and risk analysis, with or without a goldor biomarkers and risk analysis. The models and methods are

  14. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  15. UAV Cooperative Control with Stochastic Risk Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geramifard, Alborz

    Risk and reward are fundamental concepts in the cooperative control of unmanned systems. This paper focuses on a constructive relationship between a cooperative planner and a learner in order to mitigate the learning risk ...

  16. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  17. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  18. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  19. What is the Recent Controversy in Evaluating Risk Prediction Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brent, Roger

    What is the Recent Controversy in Evaluating Risk Prediction Models All About? Margaret Sullivan Pepe #12;Controversy about Risk Reclassification Techniques · Purpose: To evaluate the addition cases controls C-index = P(riskevent > risknonevent) · Should not be used to evaluate or compare risk

  20. Computational Exploration of Investor Utilities Underlying a Portfolio Insurance Strategy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Khoshnevisan; Florentin Smarandache; Sukanto Bhattacharya

    2002-10-30

    In this paper we take a look at a simple portfolio insurance strategy using a protective put and computationally derive the investor's governing utility structures underlying such a strategy under alternative market scenarios. Investor utility is deemed to increase with an increase in the excess equity generated by the portfolio insurance strategy over a simple investment strategy without any insurance. Three alternative market scenarios (probability spaces) have been explored -- 'Down', 'Neutral' and 'Up', categorized according to whether the price of the underlying security is most likely to go down, stay unchanged or go up. The methodology used is computational, primarily based on simulation and numerical extrapolation. The Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion has been used to determine how the investors react towards risk under the different scenarios.

  1. EERE Portfolio: Primary Benefits Metrics for FY09

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    [EERE

    2011-11-17

    This collection of data tables shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for both the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies as well as the individual technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  2. Projected Benefits of EERE’s Portfolio – FY 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    [EERE

    2011-11-17

    This collection of data tables and charts shows the benefits metrics related to energy security, environmental impacts, and economic impacts for the entire EERE portfolio of renewable energy technologies. Data are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2050, for both the NEMS and MARKAL models.

  3. Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, Jennifer

    Many efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions combine a cap-and-trade system with other measures such as a renewable portfolio standard. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the MIT Emissions ...

  4. Selling an Energy Efficiency Loan Portfolio in Oregon: Resale of the Craft3 loan portfolio to Self-Help Credit Union

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Peter; Borgeson, Merrian; Kramer, Chris; Zimring, Mark; Goldman, Charles

    2014-05-30

    Under the Clean Energy Works (CEW) program, Craft3 developed a loan product that widened access to financing for homeowners, offered long term funding, and collected repayments through the customer?s utility bill. The program?s success led Craft3 to pursue the sale of the loan portfolio to both mitigate its own risks and replenish funds for lending. This sale breaks new ground for energy efficiency finance and is notable as it was completed even with many novel program design elements. It replenished Craft3?s program capital and uncovered some valuable lessons that may facilitate future transactions. However, the lack of data history and the unproven nature of the loan portfolio meant that Craft3 had to limit the risk of losses to Self-Help, the purchaser of the portfolio. It remains to be seen whether this experience will pave the way for more sales of on-bill energy efficiency loan portfolios. This case study illustrates how certain program design decisions can sometimes both facilitate programmatic objectives and possibly present challenges for the sale of a portfolio of energy efficiency loans.

  5. EMPIRICAL MODELLING OF WINDTHROW RISK USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, Stephen

    EMPIRICAL MODELLING OF WINDTHROW RISK USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS by CLAYFIELD ODARKOR. Using ArcView Geographic Information System (GIS), a total of 22,304 forested segments were obtained

  6. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reinert, Joshua M

    2005-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

  7. Fuel Cells and Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presented at the Clean Energy States Alliance and U.S. Department of Energy Webinar: Fuel Cells and Renewable Portfolio Standards, June 9, 2011.

  8. Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-03-02

    Mar 2, 2012 ... security i is described by a random variable Ri, whose average can be computed ..... More information on these security sectors (or portfolios of ...

  9. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    8 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 8 grandchallengesportfoliopg8.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  10. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 9 grandchallengesportfoliopg9.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  11. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 6 grandchallengesportfoliopg6.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  12. Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs: Heuristics ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-02-03

    Aug 10, 2010 ... Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction. Costs: Heuristics and Dual Bounds. David B. Brown and James E. Smith?. Fuqua School of ...

  13. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application. It is possible to have confidence in the predictions of many of the existing models because of their fundamental physical and chemical mechanistic underpinnings and the extensive work already done to compare model predictions and empirical observations. The working group recommends that modeling tools be applied for benchmarking PBT/POPs according to exposure-to-emissions relationships, and that modeling tools be used to interpret emissions and monitoring data. The further development of models that couple fate, long-range transport, and bioaccumulation should be fostered, especially models that will allow time trends to be scientifically addressed in the risk profile.

  14. Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007 Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007 The...

  15. Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards Presented at the Clean Energy States Alliance and U.S. Department of Energy Webinar: Fuel...

  16. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VTO Analysis Portfolio Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio Presentation given by U.S. Department of Energy at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells...

  17. Interpretive electronic music systems: a portfolio of compositions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rawlinson, Julian Dean

    2011-11-23

    A portfolio of electronic music compositions employing adaptable controllers, graphic notation, and custom software performance environments. The portfolio is comprised of scores, recordings, and supporting software and ...

  18. Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Service Contracts Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts Building a diversified project portfolio enhances utility energy service contracts (UESCs)...

  19. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Concentrating Solar Power 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals...

  20. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    & Publications Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies...

  1. Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) White Paper, April 2009 Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP)...

  2. Building Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio Manager Fact Sheet Building Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio Manager Fact Sheet Building Performance with...

  3. The renewables portfolio standard in Texas: An early assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan H.; Langniss, Ole

    2001-01-01

    J. , 2000. Designing a Renewables Portfolio Standard:Resources. Espey, S. , 2001. Renewables Portfolio Standard:Consensus on National Renewables Policy: The Renewables

  4. Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma Jin; Song Qingshuo; Xu Jing; Zhang Jianfeng

    2013-06-15

    In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.

  5. Government Performance Result Act (GPRA) / Portfolio Decision...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    sizing and control strategy tuning New Powertrain Configurations Monte-Carlo Risk Analysis Detailed models required to represent future technologies 18 Summary GPRAPDS...

  6. Impacts of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2002-01-01

    This service report addresses the renewable portfolio standard provision of S. 1766. At Senator Murkowski's request it also includes an analysis of the impacts of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) patterned after the one called for in S. 1766, but where the required share is based on a 20% RPS by 2020 rather than the 10% RPS called for in S. 1766.

  7. SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solar Energy Technologies Office

    2014-05-01

    The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot’s five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot’s project portfolio as of May 2014.

  8. Fast Downward Uniform Portfolio Jendrik Seipp

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vetter, Thomas

    Fast Downward Uniform Portfolio Jendrik Seipp Universit¨at Basel Basel, Switzerland jendrik.seipp@unibas.ch Manuel Braun Johannes Garimort Albert-Ludwigs-Universit¨at Freiburg Freiburg, Germany The Fast Downward uniform portfolio runs 21 automati- cally configured Fast Downward instantiations sequentially

  9. Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arhonditsis, George B.

    Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models G. Arhonditsis was the development of regression models relating the levels of chlorophyll a (Chl) with the concentration of the limiting nutrient­­usually nitrogen­­and the renewal rate of the systems. The method was applied

  10. Benchmarking Outreach and Data Collection Techniques for External Portfolios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation contains information on Benchmarking Outreach and Data Collection Techniques for External Portfolios.

  11. The Value of Assessing Uncertainty in Oil and Gas Portfolio Optimization 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hdadou, Houda

    2013-07-25

    % and an expected disappointment of about 50% of the estimated portfolio. In a low-risk-tolerance environment, the same amounts of moderate overconfidence and optimism result in an expected decision error up to 103% and an expected disappointment up to 78...

  12. Stochastic particle models and methods in risk analysis P. Del Moral (INRIA research team ALEA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Del Moral , Pierre

    Stochastic particle models and methods in risk analysis P. Del Moral (INRIA research team ALEA efficiency, food risk analysis, bacterial propagations. System reliability : production chains, offshore

  13. Modelling credit risk of small and medium sized enterprises using transactional, accounting and market variables 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Yigui

    2012-06-26

    This thesis comprehensively explores the credit risk of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) using transactional characteristics, financial variables and market information. It contributes SMEs credit risk modelling ...

  14. Modeling Techniques for a Risk Analysis Methodology for Software Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    instrumentation and control (I&C) systems for nuclear power plant system upgrades. (Arndt 2002) These approaches for nuclear power plant system upgrades. These approaches are directed towards analyzing the change in risk, System Modeling, UML, Z, EVES, Fault Trees #12;3 Abstract The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC

  15. The Ideal Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brent, Roger

    The Ideal Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model: A Randomized Clinical Trial Holly Janes Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center 1/25 #12;Context Often a risk prediction model is developed to identify high risk subjects who can benefit from preventative therapy E.g. Framingham risk model to identify

  16. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-01

    the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards: ANational Laboratory. Renewables Portfolio Standards in theRenewables Portfolio Standards in the United States LBNL-

  17. A SURVEY OF STATE-LEVEL COST ESTIMATES OF RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2014-01-01

    LEVEL COST ESTIMATES OF RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARDS Galenthe incremental cost of renewables portfolio standards (RPS)Washington DC have adopted renewables portfolio standards (

  18. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR, this webinar will introduce and demonstrate the EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to...

  19. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This webinar continues on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn the more advanced functionalities, such as managing and...

  20. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  1. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  2. Impacts of a 15% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2007-01-01

    This analysis responds to a request from Senator Jeff Bingaman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring that 15% of U.S. electricity sales be derived from qualifying renewable energy resources.

  3. Responsibility Modelling for Risk Analysis Russell Lock, Tim Storer & Ian Sommerville

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sommerville, Ian

    Responsibility Modelling for Risk Analysis Russell Lock, Tim Storer & Ian Sommerville School INTRODUCTION Existing risk analysis techniques commonly focus on the interaction of technical aspects election process. We believe Responsibilities are a natural form of expression for risk analysis within

  4. Modeling of Supply Chain Risk Under Disruptions with Performance Measurement and Robustness Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    . The model formulation captures supply- side risk as well as demand-side risk, along with uncertainty supply-side disruption risks, transportation and other cost risks, and demand-side uncertainty within, the focus of research has been on "demand-side" risk, which is related to fluctuations in the demand

  5. We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost for an adaptive equally weighted portfolio. Moreover, we implement a rule-based expert system for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duran, Ahmet

    We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost financial decision making process by using the power of spectral analysis. We use sev- eral key components PRESENTS A Profitable Trading and Risk Management Strategy in Presence of Transaction Cost Friday, February

  6. Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David G. Hoel, PhD

    2012-04-19

    The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact that the research project did not continue beyond its first year.

  7. The CORAS Approach for Model-based Risk Management applied to e-Commerce Domain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    1 The CORAS Approach for Model-based Risk Management applied to e-Commerce Domain Dimitris Raptis framework for model-based risk management of security critical systems by exploiting the synthesis of risk on the integration of RUP and a standardised security risk management process, and it is supported by an XML

  8. Model Selection for the Competing-Risks Model With and Without Masking

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Thomas

    Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877 (tlee@stat.colostate.edu) The competing-risks model is useful in settings in which individuals (or units) may die (or fail) because for competing-risks data with and without masking involves the specification of cause-specific hazard rates

  9. Need for An Integrated Risk Model | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk...

  10. Operations Research Models in Finance (26:711:685)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of this course is to introduce models and computational methods for static and dynamic optimization problems occurring in finance. Special attention will be devoted to portfolio optimization and to risk management@business.rutgers.edu Course Materials Lecture Notes. D.G. Luenberger, Investment Science, Oxford University Press, New York

  11. The Paradoxes of Military Risk Assessment: Will the Enterprise Risk Assessment Model, Composite Risk Management and Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Chris

    Risk Management and Associated Techniques Provide the Predicted Benefits? Chris. W. Johnson, Glasgow: Johnson@dcs.gla.ac.uk; http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~johnson Keywords: Safety; Composite Risk Management, ERAM, Risk Assessment; Military Systems Engineering. Abstract Risk management provides the most important

  12. Modeling Risk for SOD Nationwide: What Are the Effects of Model Choice on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    types of models generated from common input parameters, and investigate model agreement for distribution of risk for P. ramorum. We examine five models: (1) Rule-based, (2) Logistic regression, (3. Although theoretical in nature, the results of this paper have practical and applied value for managers

  13. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  14. Subexponential Tails of Discounted Aggregate Claims in a Time-Dependent Renewal Risk Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Qihe

    Subexponential Tails of Discounted Aggregate Claims in a Time-Dependent Renewal Risk Model JinzhuP05; Secondary 62H20, 60E05 1 Introduction The renewal risk model has been playing a fundamental of the renewal risk model, both claim sizes Xk, k = 1; 2; : : :, and inter-arrival times k, k = 1; 2; : : :, form

  15. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABSOLUTE RUIN IN THE RENEWAL RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT FORCE OF INTEREST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Qihe

    THE PROBABILITIES OF ABSOLUTE RUIN IN THE RENEWAL RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT FORCE OF INTEREST of ...nite- and in...nite-time absolute ruin in the renewal risk model with constant premium rate; Convolution equiva- lence; Heavy tails; Renewal risk model 1. Introduction In this paper we address

  16. Quantitative Risk Management Rudiger Frey

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frey, Rüdiger

    Lecture Quantitative Risk Management R¨udiger Frey Universit¨at Leipzig Wintersemester 2010 risk management C. Introduction to Portfolio Credit Derivatives c 2010 (Frey) 1 #12;A. Introduction of counterparties. Measuring and management of credit risk is of high importance for financial institutions

  17. Technology Portfolio Planning by Weighted Graph Analysis of System Architectures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    Technology Portfolio Planning by Weighted Graph Analysis of System Architectures Peter Davison architecture selection and technology investment decisions will constrain the system to certain regions architectures, with a view to enabling robustness to technology portfolio realization and later architectural

  18. Benefits Analysis for DOE Energy Technology Portfolio Assessment: Background

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beschen, Darrell

    2006-12-20

    A presentation for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review on benefits analysis for the DOE energy technology portfolio assessment.

  19. Creating a Professional Portfolio Ready ReferenceE-12

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Creating a Professional Portfolio Ready ReferenceE-12 College of Engineering, Architecture & Technology Career Services Portfolios aren't just for artists anymore. Long regarded as an essential job effort and time. The Low and High Tech Alternatives You may design a high tech or low tech portfolio

  20. HEITSCH, R OMISCH --GENERATION OF MULTIVARIATE SCENARIO TREES TO MODEL STOCHASTICITY IN POWER MANAGEMENT 1 Generation of Multivariate Scenario Trees to Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    prices of fuel and electricity). Since the corresponding determinis- tic equivalents of multistage Heitsch and Werner R¨omisch Humboldt-University Berlin, Institute of Mathematics 10099 Berlin, Germany Abstract-- Modern electricity portfolio and risk management models represent multistage stochastic programs

  1. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager® Office Hours, Focus Topic: Portfolio Manager 2015 Priorities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  2. Evaluation of per-record identification risk by additive modeling of interaction for contingency table

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takemura, Akimichi

    Evaluation of per-record identification risk by additive modeling of interaction for contingency. Introduction In evaluating the disclosure risk of a given microdata set, the number (or the pro- portion, it is likely to be a population unique. One way of evaluating the per-record identification risk is modeling

  3. Risk Management for a Global Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Risk Management for a Global Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms Fengqi In this paper we consider the risk management for mid-term planning of a global multi-product chemical supply solve the resulting large scale industrial size problems. We also introduce risk management models

  4. A Mathematical Programming Model for Optimal Layout Considering Quantitative Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    A Mathematical Programming Model for Optimal Layout Considering Quantitative Risk Analysis Nancy risk analysis; Plant layout *Corresponding author. Phone: +52-461-611-7575 Ext. 5577. E-mail: arturo of plant layout with safety considerations. The model considers a quantitative risk analysis to take safety

  5. Thesis proposal CSF Brazil 2014 Causal model for flood risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bordenave, Charles

    Thesis proposal CSF Brazil 2014 Title: Causal model for flood risk assessment Thesis supervisor: The thesis aims to provide an operational tool for the anticipation of flood risk in mountain areas. The work for the anticipation of flood risk in mountain areas. The work will lead to the establishment of a model

  6. Student Guide to Developing Your Graduation Portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carver, Jeffrey C.

    Effort 2 List of Tables F1 Math and Science 3 F2 Humanities and Social Behavior 4 T1 MaterialsStudent Guide to Developing Your Graduation Portfolio Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering Bachelor of Science in Architectural Engineering Bachelor of Science in Construction Engineering Bachelor

  7. Application of the cumulative risk model in predicting school readiness in Head Start children 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodriguez-Escobar, Olga Lydia

    2009-05-15

    This study investigates the degree to which the cumulative risk index predicted school readiness in a Head Start population. In general, the reviewed studies indicated the cumulative risk model was efficacious in predicting adverse developmental...

  8. Credit Risk Modeling: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Perspective. Anthony M. Santomero, President

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stine, Robert A.

    1 Credit Risk Modeling: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Perspective. Anthony M. Santomero, President Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Payment Cards Center Conference: Credit Risk of Philadelphia's Payment Cards Center. These two organizations have combined their considerable resources

  9. The Treatment of Renewable Energy Certificates, Emissions Allowances, and Green Power Programs in State Renewables Portfolio Standards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holt, Edward A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-01-01

    Green Power Programs in State Renewables Portfolio StandardsGreen Power Programs in State Renewables Portfolio Standardshave adopted mandatory renewables portfolio standards (RPS)

  10. Is it Worth it? A Comparative Analysis of Cost-Benefit Projections for State Renewables Portfolio Standards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Benefit Projections for State Renewables Portfolio Standards2006 Introduction State renewables portfolio standards (RPS)Analysis for Meeting a 20% Renewables Portfolio Standard by

  11. Risk Measures Constituting Risk Metrics for Decision Making in the Chemical Process Industry 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prem, Katherine

    2012-02-14

    monetization. Predicting incidents as leading metrics is pivotal to improving plant processes and, for individual and societal safety in the vicinity of the plant (portfolio). From this study it can be concluded that the comprehensive judgments of all the risks...

  12. Assistant Director, Credit Modeling and Transaction Risk Management Division

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Management Division (RMD) is the group within the U.S. Department of Energys Loan Program Office (LPO) that is responsible for oversight of all risks that have the potential to impede the...

  13. 10 Banking & Financial Services Policy Report Volume 27 Number 10 October 2008 Operational Risk Under Basel II: A Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franklin, James

    Risk Under Basel II: A Model for Extreme Risk Evaluation By James Franklin "Banking compliance in world approach to operational risk is a sound model for the evaluation of extreme risks, an essen- tial of world government, and its methods mark an important advance in the handling of risk. In particular, its

  14. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-08-10

    Markets for renewable energy have historically been motivated primarily by policy efforts, but a less widely recognized driver is poised to also play a major role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Resource planning has re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, the most recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions--primarily coming from wind power--are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. This report examines how twelve western utilities treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. Our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to identify methodological/modeling issues, and suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. Here we summarize the key findings of the report, beginning with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities, an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities' analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

  15. The Modelling of Risks in IS/IT Projects through Causal and Cognitive Mapping

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winstanley, Graham

    , project evaluation, information systems project risk 1. Introduction IT projects have been notorious definition of risk management is "the identification of the hazards and possible problems, the evaluation1 The Modelling of Risks in IS/IT Projects through Causal and Cognitive Mapping Abdullah J. Al

  16. Experimental Evaluations of Expert and Non-expert Computer Users' Mental Models of Security Risks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Camp, L. Jean

    Experimental Evaluations of Expert and Non-expert Computer Users' Mental Models of Security Risks risks and thereby enable informed decisions by naive users. Yet computer security has not been en- gaged with the scholarship of risk communication. While the existence of malicious actors may appear at first to distinguish

  17. Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Föllmer, Hans

    Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles Beatrice Acciaio Hans F¨ollmer Irina Penner August 26, 2010 Abstract We study the risk assessment penalization, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure. Mathematics

  18. Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Del Moral , Pierre

    Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment #12;The SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS TO ACCIDENT RISK ASSESSMENT DISSERTATION to obtain the doctor's degree promotor Prof. dr. A. Bagchi #12;Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Accident risk assessment

  19. Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergy BillsNo. 195 - Oct. 7,DOERTIRegulatory andProjectSales TaxPortfolio Standard

  20. Renewable Portfolio Standards Resources | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergy BillsNo. 195 - Oct.7, 2015 Thermochem ConversionRenewable Portfolio

  1. The Federal Guiding Principles Checklist in ENERGY STAR Portfolio

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This webcast will teach Federal energy and sustainability professionals how to use the ENERGY STAR measurement and tracking tool, Portfolio Manager, to help ensure compliance with the Guiding...

  2. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Book: Systems Integration The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include...

  3. Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gorden Spangardt

    2002-10-18

    Oct 18, 2002 ... Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios. Gorden Spangardt (spa ***at*** umsicht.fhg.de) Michael Lucht (luc ***at*** ...

  4. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager 101 | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Portfolio Manager; add a property and enter details about it; enter energy and water consumption data; share properties; generate performance reports to assess progress; and...

  5. New Study: Renewable Energy for State Renewable Portfolio Standards...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    come from reduced greenhouse gas emissions and 5.2 billion from reductions in other air pollution for state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies operating in 2013. A...

  6. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Appendix of SunShot Funding Programs The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book...

  7. A framework for the architecting of aerospace systems portfolios with commonality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hofstetter, Wilfried Konstantin

    2009-01-01

    (cont.) The framework was applied to three case studies: commonality analysis for a portfolio of future and legacy exploration life support systems, for the historical Saturn launch vehicle portfolio, and for a portfolio ...

  8. Portfolio Optimization The Martingale Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of tables iii Abbreviations v Introduction vii 1 Stochastic analysis 1 1.1 Stochastic processes of the financial market 21 2.1 Modelling prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2() . . . . . . . . 10 2.1 Possible stock prices and the stock price expectation . . . . . . . 25 2.2 The discount factor

  9. Risk analysis in sterilization services: A first step towards a generic model of risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    and expense. These policies make the sterilization services difficult to manage, generate more risks, could in "GISEH'2012 - 6ème conférence francophone en Gestion et Ingénierie des SystèmEs Hospitaliers, Québec

  10. Inference based on the em algorithm for the competing risk model with masked causes of failure

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duchesne, Thierry

    Inference based on the em algorithm for the competing risk model with masked causes of failure parameterised competing risks model with masked causes of failure and second-stage data. With a carefully chosen definition of complete data, the maximum likelihood estimation of the cause-specific hazard functions

  11. PET: A PErsonalized Trust Model with Reputation and Risk Evaluation for P2P Resource Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Weisong

    PET: A PErsonalized Trust Model with Reputation and Risk Evaluation for P2P Resource Sharing the construction of a good cooperation, especially in the context of economic-based solutions for the P2P resource sharing. The trust model consists of two parts: reputation evaluation and risk evaluation. Reputation

  12. A Hidden Markov Chain Model for the Term Structure of Bond Credit Risk Spreads 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, L; Allen, David E; Morkel-Kingsbury, N

    1998-01-01

    This paper provides a Markov chain model for the term structure and credit risk spreads of bond processes. It allows dependency between the stochastic process modeling the interest rate and the Markov chain process describing ...

  13. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    11 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda 2011 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda Agenda for the CHP Industrial Distributed...

  14. Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2014-01-01

    Documents/201304-IPA-Renewables- Report.pdf. Springfield,and Benefits of State Renewables Portfolio Standards: ACommission). (2009). 33% Renewables Portfolio Standard:

  15. Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Factual Introduction to Experience from the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, R.; Namovicz, C.; Gielecki, M.; Smith, R.

    2008-01-01

    Electric Markets: The Renewables Portfolio Standard. ” TheDuckworth. “Can We Afford a Renewables Portfolio Standard? ”Consensus on National Renewables Policy: The Renewables

  16. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heeter, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    Company to Update its Alternative Energy Rider. ” Delaware2011 Annual Report Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards2012 Annual Report Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards

  17. ENDOWING CITIZENS WITH A PORTFOLIO OF STATE-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES FOR EFFICIENT AND EQUITABLE PRIVATIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hartnett, William

    2003-03-28

    This paper discusses a portfolio endowment policy as an alternative to conventional privatization policies. The portfolio endowment policy endows each citizen with a ...

  18. Evaluating a Proposed 20% National Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logan, Jeffrey; Sullivan, Patrick; Short, Walter; Bird, Lori; James, Ted L.; Shah, Monisha R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the impacts of a proposed 20% national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) by 2021, which has been advanced in the U.S. Congress by Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico. The paper was prepared before the America Recovery and Reinvestment Act was signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009, and thus does not consider important changes in renewable energy (RE) policy that need to be addressed in follow-on analysis. We use NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate the impacts of the RPS requirements on the energy sector and consider design issues associated with renewable energy certificate (REC) trading markets.

  19. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  20. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

  1. A Portfolio of Poetry and Portraits 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Multiple Contributors

    1981-01-01

    n ortfolio >f yeetvu and ortralt* ? DEFINITION Love: a word commonly used rarely meant finally found You. Ow A PORTFOLIO OF POETRY AND PORTRAITS Cover ? by Mary James Definition ? by Jackie Wagner Preface My Johnny ? by Jack~'.e... Dirty Harry, A Contradiction In Terms ? by M. Ward 15 Harry At Ease ? by Mar^e Patrick 16 Because of You ? by Michelle Ward 17 Johnny In All Innocence ? by Connie Faddis 18 Love, Johnny ? by Jackie Wagner 19 Keep Him Smiling ? by Ruth Kurz 20 Davis...

  2. Renewables Portfolio Standards | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EIS Report UrlNM-bRenewable Energy RFPsLtd RESRenewables Portfolio

  3. Current Portfolio Awardees | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative Fuels DataEnergy Webinar:IAbout Us » ContactCounty AimsCurrent Portfolio Awardees

  4. Optimization of Real Asset Portfolio using a Coherent Risk Measure ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2010-07-22

    folio for an energy company owning a network of gas pipelines, and in ... cies encouraged the use of natural gas, making the natural gas participation in the.

  5. Parallel Simulations for Analysing Portfolios of Catastrophic Event Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rau-Chaplin, Andrew

    ], nuclear power plants [9], radioactive waste disposal [10] and terrorism [11]. In many of these areas HPC based methods have been reported on. In the insurance and reinsurance settings companies hold

  6. Portfolio optimization with linear and fixed transaction costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Portfolio optimization with linear and fixed transaction costs Miguel Sousa Lobo1 Maryam Fazel2 optimization with linear and fixed transaction costs Abstract We consider the problem of portfolio selection of the return, and bounds on different shortfall probabilities are efficiently handled by convex optimization

  7. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model - DOE Directives, Delegations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team, is intended to act as an instructional document for the use of the ERM risk assessment tool. We are working to incorporate this tool into the current Justification...

  8. Industrial Energy Efficiency as a Risk Management Strategy 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naumoff, C.; Shipley, A. M.

    2007-01-01

    portfolio. Traditional strategies to combat against unwanted exposure in this market include hedging and long term and futures contracts. However, the following explores the topic of considering energy efficiency as a risk management tool in reducing...

  9. Building risk prediction models -with a focus on Genome-Wide Association Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brent, Roger

    Kooperberg Charles Kooperberg Predictive models for GWAS #12;Risk prediction models Based on data: (Di , Xi1;Selection of predictors. Selection of predictors on the same data as training and/or evaluating models can data to evaluate your model as is part of your cross-validation procedure biases your results

  10. State Clean Energy Practices: Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurlbut, D.

    2008-07-01

    The State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA) project is supported by the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program within the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. This project seeks to quantify the impacts of existing state policies, and to identify crucial policy attributes and their potential applicability to other states. The goal is to assist states in determining which clean energy policies or policy portfolios will best accomplish their environmental, economic, and security goals. For example, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandates an increase in the use of wind, solar, biomass, and other alternatives to fossil and nuclear electric generation. This paper provides a summary of the policy objectives that commonly drive the establishment of an RPS, the key issues that states have encountered in implementing an RPS, and the strategies that some of the leading states have followed to address implementation challenges. The factors that help an RPS function best generally have been explored in other analyses. This study complements others by comparing empirical outcomes, and identifying the policies that appear to have the greatest impact on results.

  11. 3D Bone Microarchitecture Modeling and Fracture Risk Department of Computer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buffalo, State University of New York

    3D Bone Microarchitecture Modeling and Fracture Risk Prediction Hui Li Department of Computer will also rise. It calls for innovative research on understanding of osteoporo- sis and fracture mechanisms-of-the-art probabilistic approach to analyze bone fracture risk factors including demographic attributes and life styles

  12. Analysis and prediction of hazard risks caused by tropical cyclones in Southern China with fuzzy mathematical and grey models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Da-Lin

    Analysis and prediction of hazard risks caused by tropical cyclones in Southern China with fuzzy 2011 Keywords: Combined weights Fuzzy mathematical models Hazard risk analysis Exceeded probability Tropical cyclones Grey prediction model a b s t r a c t A hazard-risk assessment model and a grey hazard

  13. Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

    2009-05-27

    The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

  14. Risk aversion in multistage stochastic programming: a modeling and ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-02-04

    Feb 4, 2015 ... means that decisions made today should agree with the planning ... a pension fund problem in which a company acts as the sponsor of the fund and the .... stages and less risk-averse about the stages farther in the future.

  15. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  16. Responsibility Modeling for the Sociotechnical Risk Analysis of Coalitions of Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenwood, David

    2011-01-01

    Society is challenging systems engineers by demanding ever more complex and integrated systems. With the rise of cloud computing and systems-of-systems (including cyber-physical systems) we are entering an era where mission critical services and applications will be dependent upon 'coalitions-of-systems'. Coalitions-of-systems (CoS) are a class of system similar to systems-of-systems but they differ in that they interact to further overlapping self-interests rather than an overarching mission. Assessing the sociotechnical risks associated with CoS is an open research question of societal importance as existing risk analysis techniques typically focus on the technical aspects of systems and ignore risks associated with coalition partners reneging on responsibilities or leaving the coalition. We demonstrate that a responsibility modeling based risk analysis approach enables the identification of sociotechnical risks associated with CoS. The approach identifies hazards and associated risks that may arise when re...

  17. Ruin probabilities and de cit for the renewal risk model with phase{type interarrival times

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Avram, Florin

    Ruin probabilities and de#12;cit for the renewal risk model with phase{type interarrival times F killed ruin probability, de#12;cit at ruin, Sparre Andersen Model, phase{type distributions, Laplace transform of the #12;nite time ruin probability, by considering also the de#12;cit at ruin; the model

  18. A Risk-aware Trust Based Secure Resource Discovery (RTSRD) Model for Pervasive Computing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madiraju, Praveen

    security threat to them. Thus, the resource discovery process demands models that ensure the privacyA Risk-aware Trust Based Secure Resource Discovery (RTSRD) Model for Pervasive Computing Sheikh I-hoc network of pervasive computing, a resource discovery model is needed that can resolve security and privacy

  19. A model for pricing data bundles based on minimax risks for estimation of a location parameter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robertson, Edward L.

    A model for pricing data bundles based on minimax risks for estimation of a location parameter of progress on the fundamental conceptual issues of the mathematical modeling of data, increasingly attention to this line of work; in particular, we propose and analyze a model for the pricing of data when the value

  20. Modeling toxic endpoints for improving human health risk assessment 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bruce, Erica Dawn

    2009-05-15

    RAGS Risk Assessment Guidance For Superfund RCRA Resource Conservation and Recovery Act SD Sum of Squared Deviation TCDD 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-Dioxin TEF Toxic Equivalency Factor TEF B Bioassay Based Toxic Equivalency... Amendments (HSWA) of 1984 further strengthened the EPA?s ability to regulate waste disposal. The HSWA was responsible for the eventual removal of land disposal of hazardous wastes. Cancers, renal disease, circulatory disorders, reproductive disorders...

  1. Risk Adjusted Budget Allocation Models with Application in ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-25

    dominance in the optimization models have been used to model finance, energy and ...... on terrorist threats: a standard, reduced, and enhanced threat outlook. The ... the annual percentage of the budget allocations of the UASI Funding in the

  2. Risk-based maintenance modeling. Prioritization of maintenance importances and quantification of maintenance effectiveness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vesely, W.E.; Rezos, J.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes methods for prioritizing the risk importances of maintenances using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Approaches then are described for quantifying their reliability and risk effects. Two different PRA importance measures, minimal cutset importances and risk reduction importances, were used to prioritize maintenances; the findings show that both give similar results if appropriate criteria are used. The justifications for the particular importance measures also are developed. The methods developed to quantify the reliability and risk effects of maintenance actions are extensions of the usual reliability models now used in PRAs. These extended models consider degraded states of the component, and quantify the benefits of maintenance in correcting degradations and preventing failures. The negative effects of maintenance, including downtimes, also are included. These models are specific types of Markov models. The data for these models can be obtained from plant maintenance logs and from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). To explore the potential usefulness of these models, the authors analyzed a range of postulated values of input data. These models were used to examine maintenance effects on a components reliability and performance for various maintenance programs and component data. Maintenance schedules were analyzed to optimize the component`s availability. In specific cases, the effects of maintenance were found to be large.

  3. Running in place : renewal portfolio standards and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hogan, Michael T. (Michael Thomas)

    2008-01-01

    Renewable portfolio standards ("RPS") have spread widely as states have made an effort to promote electricity production from renewable energy sources, granting privileged market access to eligible technologies and resources. ...

  4. Chapter 1: Estimating prospective benefits of EERE's portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  5. EPA ENERGY STAR Webinar: ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time; using...

  6. Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2011-12-01

    Summary report of the Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review. The purpose of the review was for project recipients to report on their project goals, approach, and results to date.

  7. Portfolio evaluation of advanced coal technology : research, development, and demonstration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naga-Jones, Ayaka

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the advanced coal technology research, development and demonstration programs at the U.S. Department of Energy since the 1970s. The evaluation is conducted from a portfolio point of view and derives ...

  8. Portfolio Analysis and Management System (PAMS) External User Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Portfolio Analysis and Management System (PAMS) External User Guide, Version 11.0, September 2013. Prepared for: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Office of Business Policy and Operations.

  9. Sandia Energy - Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)Geothermal Energy & DrillingNanomaterials HongyouHydrogen Risk

  10. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  11. Handling risk of uncertainty in model-based production optimization: a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van den Hof, Paul

    .d.Jansen@tudelft.nl) Abstract: Model-based economic optimization of oil production suffers from high levels of uncertainty, the secondary objective is aimed at maximizing the speed of oil production to mitigate risk. This multi and production data about the true values of the model parameters. Furthermore, economic variables such as oil

  12. Asset-Liability Management Modelling with Risk Control by Stochastic Dominance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grothey, Andreas

    Asset-Liability Management Modelling with Risk Control by Stochastic Dominance Xi Yang Jacek of Edinburgh, UK University of Edinburgh, UK 1 #12;Abstract An Asset-Liability Management model with a novel, and this makes the method applicable to truly large scale problems. 1 Introduction The Asset-Liability Management

  13. Option prices in a model with stochastic disaster risk Sang Byung Seo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kahana, Michael J.

    Option prices in a model with stochastic disaster risk Sang Byung Seo University of Pennsylvania Mellon University, Cornell University and the Wharton school for helpful comments. #12;Option prices. Thus it is of interest to know whether these models have the potential to explain option prices as well

  14. Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk. Patrick Henaff (1), Ismail and phrases. Energy markets; commodities; natural gas storage; model uncertainty. JEL Classification: C4; C5 and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot- based valuation framework coupled with a financial

  15. Time consistency and risk averse dynamic decision models ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-05-02

    sistent models as we provide practitioners with an intuitive economic inter- pretation for the ... ning and financial engineering problems. Based on ... consistency is shown to be one basic requirement to get suitable optimal de- cisions, in ...

  16. Legal Issues and Risks Associated with Building Information Modeling Technology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foster, Leon Lewis

    2008-07-22

    International Alliance for Interoperability IFC Industry Foundation Classes IPD Integrated Project Delivery NIBS National Institute of Building Standards NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology VDC Virtual Design and Construction 1 CHAPTER 1... to generate cost and schedule savings. BIM is expected to drive the construction industry towards a ?model based? process and gradually move the industry away from a ?2D Based? process. 1.3 DEFINITION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BIM BIM is not merely a 3D...

  17. Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foye, Kevin C.; Soong, Te-Yang

    2012-07-01

    The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the waste mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific example, relative density, which can be determined through field measurements, was selected as the field quality control parameter for waste placement. This technique can be extended to include a rigorous performance-based methodology using other parameters (void space criteria, debris-soil mix ratio, pre-loading, etc.). As shown in this example, each parameter range, or sets of parameter ranges can be selected such that they can result in an acceptable, long-term differential settlement according to the probabilistic model. The methodology can also be used to re-evaluate the long-term differential settlement behavior at closed land disposal facilities to identify, if any, problematic facilities so that remedial action (e.g., reinforcement of upper and intermediate waste layers) can be implemented. Considering the inherent spatial variability in waste and earth materials and the need for engineers to apply sound quantitative practices to engineering analysis, it is important to apply the available probabilistic techniques to problems of differential settlement. One such method to implement probability-based differential settlement analyses for the design of landfill final covers has been presented. The design evaluation technique presented is one tool to bridge the gap from deterministic practice to probabilistic practice. (authors)

  18. Model-Based Performance Risk Analysis Vittorio Cortellessa, Katerina Goseva-Popstojanova, Senior Member, IEEE, Kalaivani Appukkutty,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goseva-Popstojanova, Katerina

    Model-Based Performance Risk Analysis Vittorio Cortellessa, Katerina Goseva-Popstojanova, Senior such type of risk analysis. Finally, we introduce a methodology to obtain, from annotated Sequence Diagrams introduces the basic concepts of risk analysis along with an overview of the related work. In Section 3, we

  19. Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory System.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sankaranarayanan, Sriram

    Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory for simulating risks due to insulin infusion pump us- age by diabetic patients. Insulin infusion pumps allow-regulate their blood glucose levels. However, the use of infusion pumps and continuous glucose monitors can pose risks

  20. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-01

    M. Fripp. 2004. Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobsand S. Hempling. 2001. The Renewables Portfolio Standard: AEvaluating Experience with Renewables Portfolio Standards in

  1. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  2. Credit Risk Modeling andCredit Risk Modeling and DecisioningDecisioning May 29May 29--30, 200230, 2002

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stine, Robert A.

    , 2002 The Last Ten YearsThe Last Ten Years Allen Jost, Vice President HNC Software Inc. #12;2 Overview techniques Are capable of providing reject reasons Impossible to "reverse engineer" Model complex, non Score Two Month TrendBehavior Score Two Month Trend 79957995--Gambling ChargesGambling Charges $200

  3. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heeter, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    Company of New Mexico Renewable Energy Portfolio ProcurementCompany of New Mexico Renewable Energy Portfolio ProcurementMexico’s RPS requires that IOUs have 15% of retail electricity sales from renewable energy

  4. Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects...

  5. The effectiveness of portfolios in assessing students' connections between mathematical symbols and mathematical concepts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McGinnis, Leslie Grable

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of mathematics portfolios in determining the type of connections students were making between mathematical concepts and mathematical symbols. A mathematics portfolio ...

  6. Essays on the Economics of Environmental Issues: The Environmental Kuznets Curve to Optimal Energy Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meininger, Aaron G.

    2012-01-01

    Renewable Portfolio157 B.2 Renewable Energy Funding and Speci?c Technology161 ix B.3 Renewable Energy Penetration

  7. Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White Paper, September 2007

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A draft white paper discussing the barriers to combine heat and power (CHP) with renewable portfolio standards

  8. Reduced form electricity spot price modeling with a view towards spike risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gerkmann, Ralf

    Reduced form electricity spot price modeling with a view towards spike risk Prof. Dr. Meyer. Februar 2010, 16:15 Uhr Seminarraum, Ludwigstraße 33 I The recent deregulation of electricity markets has led to the creation of energy exchanges, where the electricity is freely traded. We study the most

  9. Incorporating modeling uncertainties in the assessment of seismic collapse risk of buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baker, Jack W.

    Incorporating modeling uncertainties in the assessment of seismic collapse risk of buildings Abbie Carlo Seismic reliability a b s t r a c t The primary goal of seismic provisions in building codes is to protect life safety through the prevention of structural collapse. To evaluate the extent to which current

  10. A Risk Based Paradigm and Model for Unmanned Aerial Systems in the National Airspace

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    midair collisions and ground strikes are the focus of the risk model. The projects intent is to assist to system failure) (km2 ) ALV b, ALV p Lethal area for buildings and pedestrians in a vertical crash (due (transient & in-fleet) collisions (crashes/hour) C2 Command and Control Dbldg Expected number of fatalities

  11. Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors Benjamin B of photovoltaic installations information necessary to develop a data-driven plan for BOS connector maintenance, reliability I. INTRODUCTION As the reliability of traditional photovoltaic (PV) modules becomes better

  12. Risk analysis via heterogeneous models of SCADA interconnecting Power Grids and Telco Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    Risk analysis via heterogeneous models of SCADA interconnecting Power Grids and Telco Networks A and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems has led to an improvement of Power Grid operations and functionalities power grid services are increasingly depending upon the adequate functionality of SCADA system which

  13. Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Rick L.

    Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species Philip B and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, PO Box 173120, Bozeman, MT 59717-3120, USA Summary 1. Biofuel. However, concerns have been raised on the invasiveness of biofuel feedstocks. Estimating invasion

  14. Inference for the dependent competing risks model with masked causes of failure

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Craiu, V. Radu

    Inference for the dependent competing risks model with masked causes of failure Radu V. Craiu Æ/fail for different reasons. The cause specific hazard rates are taken to be piecewise constant functions. A complication arises when some of the failures are masked within a group of possible causes. Traditionally

  15. THE USE OF A FORMALISED RISK MODEL IN NHS INFORMATION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Chris

    1 THE USE OF A FORMALISED RISK MODEL IN NHS INFORMATION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT Michèle Jeffcott & Chris: {shellyj, johnson}@dcs.gla.ac.uk Abstract: Information Systems (IS) and technology are used extensively the NHS will be developing and implementing information systems to support patient care within the next

  16. An adaptive premium policy with a Bayesian motivation in the classical risk model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lemieux, Christiane

    An adaptive premium policy with a Bayesian motivation in the classical risk model David Landriault in which the premium rate policy is adaptive to claims experience. We assume that the premium rate. We then motivate further the idea behind this adaptive premium rate policy by using a mixed Poisson

  17. Structuring Risk in E-Government Development Projects Using a Causal Model Abdullah Al-Shehab

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winstanley, Graham

    Structuring Risk in E-Government Development Projects Using a Causal Model Abdullah Al-Shehab 1 projects is minimal compared with traditional Information System (IS) development projects. The success projects, and this research uses a similar approach applied in E-Gov development projects. This experiment

  18. Value based analysis of acquisition portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burgess, Cheri Nicole Markt

    2010-01-01

    Currently, program-funding allocation is based on program performance. Funding cuts commonly lead to a poor reflection on the program management assigned to the given program. If additional factors such as program risk and ...

  19. Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, John E.

    Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs John E. Mitchell. Abstract: The inclusion of transaction costs is an essential element of any realistic portfolio transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. In partic- ular, we consider linear

  20. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  1. Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory System.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fainekos, Georgios E.

    Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory present a case study on the use of robustness-guided and statistical model checking approaches for simulating risks due to insulin infusion pump us- age by diabetic patients. Insulin infusion pumps allow

  2. Do Disaster Expectations Explain Household Portfolios?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alan, Sule

    in Appendix B. 12 = f#22; ; (#27;2 ); #22;#14;; (#27;2#14;); p; #30;; #25;; #20;g where #0; #22; #1; mean log-coe¢ cient of relative risk aversion (#27;2 ) variance of log-coe¢ cient of relative risk aversion, (set to zero if #27; 2 #14; > 0) (#22;#14;) mean... aversion) of standard normal variables8 in addition to actual realized stock returns from 1983 to 2004. As discussed in the data section, the lack of panel data on consumption, wealth 8If lnx #24; N(a; b), we can simulate draws from a lognormal by taking x...

  3. c 2011 Dimitra Apostolopoulou OPTIMIZED FTR PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION: THE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gross, George

    c 2011 Dimitra Apostolopoulou #12;OPTIMIZED FTR PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION: THE SPECULATOR'S PROBLEM In this thesis, we propose a systematic methodology to construct an opti- mized financial transmission rights lines is a key step in the construction methodology. So, rather than focusing on the LMP differences

  4. NIH Portfolio Analysis on Climate Change and Health

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madey, Gregory R.

    NIH Portfolio Analysis on Climate Change and Health Total studies that in some way relate to climate change 1,357 > Directly relate to climate change 7 > Examine the climate variables on health 85 response to climate change By David Taylor Climate change and its relationship to health research

  5. A New Cone Programming Approach for Robust Portfolio Selection ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2006-12-22

    Dec 10, 2006 ... matrix V , i.e., the factor loadings of the individual assets, are also assumed to be known ...... The resulting portfolios are held constant for the investment at each period t. Since both the robust ..... Utilities (Gas & Electric). EMR.

  6. PG&E's Renewable Portfolio Standard & Greenhouse Gas Compliance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electric Transportation Natural Gas Capped at 334 MMT 80 MMT #12;(MMT CO2e Business as Usual ­ 2020 507 Electric and Natural Gas Sectors Energy Efficiency 12 Renewables 11 Other 2 Transportation Low Carbon FuelPG&E's Renewable Portfolio Standard & Greenhouse Gas Compliance Fong Wan Senior Vice President

  7. George Mason University Portfolio Governance Council (PGC) Charter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to commit the resources of the units they represent, as appropriate; · Commitment to communicate the work, and periodically review and evaluate the processes and criteria for all Banner and related administrative and prioritization; · Approve new projects and resource commitments forwarded by the Portfolio Evaluation Committee

  8. Portfolio: A Search Engine for Finding Functions and Their Usages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poshyvanyk, Denys

    Libraries]: Reusable Libraries General Terms Algorithms, Experimentation Keywords source code search engines file. He or she may enter the query "edit save pdf file" into a search engine. Existing source codePortfolio: A Search Engine for Finding Functions and Their Usages Collin McMillan College

  9. Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2010-09-01

    A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

  10. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  11. Fuzziness and Funds Allocation in Portfolio Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jack Allen; Sukanto Bhattacharya; Florentin Smarandache

    2002-03-07

    Each individual investor is different, with different financial goals, different levels of risk tolerance and different personal preferences. From the point of view of investment management, these characteristics are often defined as objectives and constraints. Objectives can be the type of return being sought, while constraints include factors such as time horizon, how liquid the investor is, any personal tax situation and how risk is handled. It's really a balancing act between risk and return with each investor having unique requirements, as well as a unique financial outlook - essentially a constrained utility maximization objective. To analyze how well a customer fits into a particular investor class, one investment house has even designed a structured questionnaire with about two-dozen questions that each has to be answered with values from 1 to 5. The questions range from personal background (age, marital state, number of children, job type, education type, etc.) to what the customer expects from an investment (capital protection, tax shelter, liquid assets, etc.). A fuzzy logic system has been designed for the evaluation of the answers to the above questions. We have investigated the notion of fuzziness with respect to funds allocation.

  12. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  13. Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brodin, N. Patrik, E-mail: nils.patrik.brodin@rh.dk [Radiation Medicine Research Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Vogelius, Ivan R. [Radiation Medicine Research Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen (Denmark); Björk-Eriksson, Thomas [Department of Oncology, Skåne University Hospital and Lund University, Lund (Sweden); Munck af Rosenschöld, Per [Radiation Medicine Research Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bentzen, Søren M. [Radiation Medicine Research Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen (Denmark); Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison, Wisconsin (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.

  14. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  15. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: A modeling study for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mousseau, Timothy A.

    Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from-model Death risks The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary

  16. Euroweb 2002 --The Web and the GRID: from e-science to e-business 1 Model based Security Risk Analysis for Web

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    for risk analysis of critical systems and semiformal modelling methods. In this paper we provide to system modelling and risk analysis, where the architecture expressed in the information system model is used to guide the combined application of risk analysis techniques. This need is being addressed

  17. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-08-31

    Objectives. The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO{sub 2} permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale. The main motivation was that carbon capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role as a climate change mitigation technology only if it is deployed at scale of gigatonne per year injections over a period of decades. Continuous injection of this magnitude must be understood at the scale of a geologic basin. Specifically, the technical objectives of this project were: (1) to develop mathematical models of capacity and injectivity at the basin scale; (2) to apply quantitative risk assessment methodologies that will inform on CO{sub 2} permanence; (3) to apply the models to geologic basins across the continental United States. These technical objectives go hand-in-hand with the overarching goals of: (1) advancing the science for deployment of CCS at scale; and (2) contributing to training the next generation of scientists and engineers that will implement and deploy CCS in the United States and elsewhere. Methods. The differentiating factor of this proposal was to perform fundamental research on migration and fate of CO{sub 2} and displaced brine at the geologic basin scale. We developed analytical sharp-interface models of the evolution of CO{sub 2} plumes over the duration of injection (decades) and after injection (centuries). We applied the analytical solutions of CO{sub 2} plume migration and pressure evolution to specific geologic basins, to estimate the maximum footprint of the plume, and the maximum injection rate that can be sustained during a certain injection period without fracturing the caprock. These results have led to more accurate capacity estimates, based on fluid flow dynamics, rather than ad hoc assumptions of an overall “efficiency factor.” We also applied risk assessment methodologies to evaluate the uncertainty in our predictions of storage capacity and leakage rates. This was possible because the analytical mathematical models provide ultrafast forward simulation and they contain few parameters. Impact. The project has been enormously successful both in terms of its scientific output (journal publications) as well as impact in the government and industry. The mathematical models and uncertainty quantification methodologies developed here o?er a physically-based approach for estimating capacity and leakage risk at the basin scale. Our approach may also facilitate deployment of CCS by providing the basis for a simpler and more coherent regulatory structure than an “individual-point-of-injection” permitting approach. It may also lead to better science-based policy for post-closure design and transfer of responsibility to the State.

  18. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Williams, Scott G. [Peter Maccallum Cancer Centre and University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Kestin, Larry L., E-mail: lkestin@comcast.net [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification. Conclusions: The PPC is an independent and powerful predictor of clinical outcomes of prostate cancer after RT. A risk model replacing T stage with the PPC to reduce subjectivity demonstrated potentially improved stratification.

  19. Retrospective on the Seniors' Council Tier 1 LDRD portfolio.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ballard, William Parker

    2012-04-01

    This report describes the Tier 1 LDRD portfolio, administered by the Seniors Council between 2003 and 2011. 73 projects were sponsored over the 9 years of the portfolio at a cost of $10.5 million which includes $1.9M of a special effort in directed innovation targeted at climate change and cyber security. Two of these Tier 1 efforts were the seeds for the Grand Challenge LDRDs in Quantum Computing and Next Generation Photovoltaic conversion. A few LDRDs were terminated early when it appeared clear that the research was not going to succeed. A great many more were successful and led to full Tier 2 LDRDs or direct customer sponsorship. Over a dozen patents are in various stages of prosecution from this work, and one project is being submitted for an R and D 100 award.

  20. A Risk-based Optimization Modeling Framework for Mitigating Fire Events for Water and Fire Response Infrastructures 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kanta, Lufthansa Rahman

    2011-02-22

    ) minimizing the cost of mitigation. Third, a stochastic modeling approach is developed to assess urban fire risk for the coupled water distribution and fire response systems that includes probabilistic expressions for building ignition, WDS failure, and wind...

  1. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Supplement to

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On June 10, 2003, Senator Pete Domenici, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested additional analysis of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), expected to be proposed as an amendment to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. This request asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide additional results from two previously released EIA analyses of the proposed legislation, and to conduct further analyses with modified assumptions.

  2. Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooke, William H. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Mostovoy, Georgy [Mississippi State University (MSU); Anantharaj, Valentine G [ORNL; Jolly, W. Matt [USDA Forest Service

    2012-01-01

    Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year mean (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.

  3. Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LaRocca, Sarah; Hassel, Henrik; Guikema, Seth

    2013-01-01

    Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist which can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Thus in this paper, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this pa...

  4. Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual Model and Future Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oehmen, Josef

    Risk management is an important element of product design. It helps to minimize the project- and product-related risks such as project budget and schedule overrun, or missing product cost and quality targets. Risk management ...

  5. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-01

    less than 1% is small hydro and ocean energy, demonstratingexcept that certain small-hydro facilities owned by Oregon8% geothermal, and 4% small hydro. Renewables Portfolio

  6. Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2014-01-01

    Approval of Its Amended Renewable Energy Plan. June 3, 2013.Benefits of Complying with Renewable Portfolio Standards:The Costs and Benefits of Renewable Resource Procurement in

  7. Supporting Solar Power in Renewables Portfolio Standards: Experience from the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2010-01-01

    R. and G. Barbose. 2008. Renewables Portfolio Standards inwww.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Renewables/index.htm (accessed2008. Deploying Renewables - Principles for Effective

  8. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heeter, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    addition of renewable and alternative energy resources. TheCompany to Update its Alternative Energy Rider. ” Delaware2011 Annual Report Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards

  9. Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in Deregulated ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-06-10

    Jun 9, 2011 ... procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers' electricity demand. ... being replaced by firms specialised in generation, transmission, distribution, ...... findings are in line with the statistical properties of the SAA estimator for the optimal objective ..... Worldwide asset and liability modeling.

  10. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  11. Invited Contribution to Q 76: The Use of Risk Analysis to Support Dam Safety Decisions and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    ICOLD 20th Congress Invited Contribution to Q 76: The Use of Risk Analysis to Support Dam Safety Decisions and Management DRAFT FOR REVIEW ONLY Portfolio Risk Assessment: A Tool for Managing Dam Safety in the Context of the Owner's Business David S. Bowles Professor and Director, Institute for Dam Safety Risk

  12. Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Sadovsky, Artyom; Sullivan, E. C.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options.

  13. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Chapman, C.; Logan, J.; Sumner, J.; Short, W.

    2010-05-01

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  14. Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, E.; Keisler, J.; Chon, H.

    2008-11-17

    In this project we have completed, or are in the process of, collecting and analyzing information on seven energy technologies – solar photovoltaics, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, electricity from biomass, liquid bio-fuels, and batteries – in regards to their potential impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have collected expert elicitations, relating U.S. government funding trajectories to probabilities of success. We then used MiniCAM, a technologically-detailed Integrated Assessnent Model to determine the impact on the marginal cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if the technologies were successful. Finally, we have performed initial analysis on portfolios of technologies. This project has partially supported nine papers, either published, under review, or under preparation for such journals as Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, Climatic Change, Management Science, and Transportation Research.

  15. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-01

    or clean energy policies, unless RPS-specific costs areCost Impacts of a Vermont Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Economics of a Washington Energy Portfolio Standard: Effects on Ratepayers The Washington Clean Energy

  16. Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Zaffaroni, P

    of random positive definitive matrices such that B?H?1t B N ?p Pt > 0 as N ??. (51) Recalling that e(N)i is the ith column of the identity matrix IN , then for any t,i and j e(N)?i ??1t ?(j) ?p 0 as N ??, 1 ? j ? k, (52) where ?(j) denotes the jth column...

  17. Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Addendum

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

  18. Impact Evaluation Plan for the Site-Specific Savings Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverseIMPACT EVALUATION PLAN FOR THE SITE- SPECIFIC SAVINGS PORTFOLIO Prepared for

  19. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

  20. A Student Guide to the University Writing Portfolio on iWebfolio How Do I...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gopalakrishnan, K.

    delete a reviewer? .. 23 OneStop is down. How do I get into iWebfolio? ................................................ 24 How do I go back to view my other portfolios or switch between them?........ 25 How do I delete files from my University Writing Portfolio? .......................... 26 How do I delete files from

  1. Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oosterlee, Cornelis W. "Kees"

    Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios. Shashi Jain, where especially capital costs are known to be highly uncertain. Differ- ent nuclear reactor types uncertainties in the cost elements of a nuclear power plant, to provide an optimal portfolio of nuclear reactors

  2. On the method of optimal portfolio choice by cost-efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rüschendorf, Ludger

    On the method of optimal portfolio choice by cost-efficiency Ludger R¨uschendorf*, Viktor Wolf Freiburg, Germany Abstract We develop the method of optimal portfolio choice based on the concept of cost-efficiency class of cost-efficient payoffs. While the results for the cost-efficient payoff given so far

  3. A Guide to the Electronic Teaching Portfolio Academic Programs in College Teaching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , the teaching portfolio is a relatively short collection of materials and artifacts selected to document of materials selected to publicly define #12;your teaching and to demonstrate the effectiveness of your of Teaching Portfolios," 1995) This handbook is offered as a general guide for anyone wanting to organize

  4. A Note on the LogOptimal Portfolio Problem Thomas Goll and Jan Kallsen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kallsen, Jan

    . Firstly, it clarifies the role of self­financing strategies and discounting in the presence of consump not necessarily imply the existence of an optimal portfolio/consumption pair in the consumption case. Throughout with their corresponding Lebesgue­Stieltjes measure. 2 Portfolios, consumption, and discounting Our mathematical framework

  5. A Note on the Log-Optimal Portfolio Problem Thomas Goll and Jan Kallsen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kallsen, Jan

    . Firstly, it clarifies the role of self-financing strategies and discounting in the presence of consump not necessarily imply the existence of an optimal portfolio/consumption pair in the consumption case. Throughout with their corresponding Lebesgue-Stieltjes measure. 2 Portfolios, consumption, and discounting Our mathematical framework

  6. Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs and Market Impact Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, John E.

    Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs and Market Impact Costs John E. Mitchell Department of Mathematical Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY. Abstract The inclusion of transaction costs is an essential element of any realistic portfolio optimization

  7. Efficient Product Portfolio Reduction Ryan Fellini, Michael Kokkolaras, and Panos Papalambros

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papalambros, Panos

    and applying methodologies developed for product family design to the problem of portfolio reduction. A product by a corporation in order to meet its cus- tomer's needs. The proliferation of products in a company's portfolio. The methodology is applied to the design of automotive engines. 2. Keywords: Product platforms, product families

  8. TU-C-18A-01: Models of Risk From Low-Dose Radiation Exposures: What Does the Evidence Say?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bushberg, J; Boreham, D; Ulsh, B

    2014-06-15

    At dose levels of (approximately) 500 mSv or more, increased cancer incidence and mortality have been clearly demonstrated. However, at the low doses of radiation used in medical imaging, the relationship between dose and cancer risk is not well established. As such, assumptions about the shape of the dose-response curve are made. These assumptions, or risk models, are used to estimate potential long term effects. Common models include 1) the linear non-threshold (LNT) model, 2) threshold models with either a linear or curvilinear dose response above the threshold, and 3) a hormetic model, where the risk is initially decreased below background levels before increasing. The choice of model used when making radiation risk or protection calculations and decisions can have significant implications on public policy and health care decisions. However, the ongoing debate about which risk model best describes the dose-response relationship at low doses of radiation makes informed decision making difficult. This symposium will review the two fundamental approaches to determining the risk associated with low doses of ionizing radiation, namely radiation epidemiology and radiation biology. The strengths and limitations of each approach will be reviewed, the results of recent studies presented, and the appropriateness of different risk models for various real world scenarios discussed. Examples of well-designed and poorly-designed studies will be provided to assist medical physicists in 1) critically evaluating publications in the field and 2) communicating accurate information to medical professionals, patients, and members of the general public. Equipped with the best information that radiation epidemiology and radiation biology can currently provide, and an understanding of the limitations of such information, individuals and organizations will be able to make more informed decisions regarding questions such as 1) how much shielding to install at medical facilities, 2) at what dose level are risk vs. benefit discussions with patients appropriate, 3) at what dose level should we tell a pregnant woman that the baby’s health risk from a prenatal radiation exposure is “significant”, 4) is informed consent needed for patients undergoing medical imaging, and 5) at what dose level is evacuation appropriate after a radiological accident. Examples of the tremendous impact that choosing different risks models can have on the answers to these types of questions will be given.A moderated panel discussion will allow audience members to pose questions to the faculty members, each of whom is an established expert in his respective discipline. Learning Objectives: Understand the fundamental principles, strengths and limitations of radiation epidemiology and radiation biology for determining the risk from exposures to low doses of ionizing radiation Become familiar with common models of risk used to describe the dose-response relationship at low dose levels Learn to identify strengths and weaknesses in studies designed to measure the effect of low doses of ionizing radiation Understand the implications of different risk models on public policy and health care decisions.

  9. September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty This appendix deals with the representation. In the section on "Uncertainties," beginning on page P-18, it describes in detail how the regional portfolio of these files is a compressed file, L24X-DW02-P.zip, containing the workbook files that Appendix L uses

  10. Risk-Limiting Dispatch for Integrating Renewable Power Ram Rajagopal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varaiya, Pravin

    clean energy. California's goal is 33% by 2020. The goals are promoted by `renewable portfolio standardsRisk-Limiting Dispatch for Integrating Renewable Power Ram Rajagopal Stanford Univ ramr-stage, stochastic de- cision problem. At each stage, the system operator (SO) purchases forward energy and reserve

  11. A framework for dynamic safety and risk management modeling in complex engineering systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dulac, Nicolas, 1978-

    2007-01-01

    Almost all traditional hazard analysis or risk assessment techniques, such as failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) rely on a chain-of-event paradigm of ...

  12. Towards a UML Profile for Model-Based Risk Siv Hilde Houmb1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    complementary risk assessment methods like HazOp1 [10], FTA2 [5], FMEA3 [3], Markov analysis 1 Hazard

  13. Bayesian models for elevated disease risk due to exposure to uranium mine and mill waste on the Navajo Nation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huerta, Gabriel

    ForReview Only Bayesian models for elevated disease risk due to exposure to uranium mine and mill of Pharmacy, Community Environmental Health Program Keywords: abandoned uranium mines, conditionally specified to ex- posure to uranium mine and mill waste on the Navajo Nation Glenn A. Stark University of New

  14. Multi-GPU Computing for Achieving Speedup in Real-time Aggregate Risk Analysis Center for Security, Theory and Algorithmic Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rau-Chaplin, Andrew

    Multi-GPU Computing for Achieving Speedup in Real-time Aggregate Risk Analysis A. K. Bahl Center.whiteway@dal.ca Abstract--Stochastic simulation techniques employed for portfolio risk analysis, often referred to as Aggregate Risk Analysis, can benefit from exploiting state-of-the-art high- performance computing platforms

  15. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2009-01-01

    to two geologic carbon sequestration sites, Energy Procedia,for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Based on Effectivefor geologic carbon sequestration risk assessment, Energy

  16. Pesticide risk perceptions and the differences between farmers and extensionists: Towards a knowledge-in-context model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ríos-González, Adriana, E-mail: adrianariosg@hotmail.com [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico) [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico); The Africa and Latin America Research Groups Network (GRAAL), Faculty of Medicine, Biostatistics Unit, Barcelona Autonomous University, Edificio M, 08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Jansen, Kees, E-mail: Kees.Jansen@wur.nl [Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen (Netherlands)] [Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen (Netherlands); Javier Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor, E-mail: hsanchez@ecosur.mx [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico); The Africa and Latin America Research Groups Network (GRAAL), Faculty of Medicine, Biostatistics Unit, Barcelona Autonomous University, Edificio M, 08193 Bellaterra (Spain)

    2013-07-15

    A growing body of literature analyzes farmer perceptions of pesticide risk, but much less attention has been given to differences in risk perception between farmers and technical experts. Furthermore, inconsistencies in knowledge have too easily been explained in terms of lack of knowledge rather than exploring the underlying reasons for particular forms of thinking about pesticide risks. By doing this, the division between expert and lay knowledge has been deepened rather than transcended. Objective: This study aims to understand differences and similarities among the perceptions of pesticide risks of farmers, farm workers, and technical experts such as extensionists, by applying a social science approach towards knowledge and risk attitudes. Methods: Semi-structured interviews and field observations were conducted to smallholders, farm workers, extensionists, health professionals and scientists involved in the use and handling of pesticides. Subsequently, a survey was carried out to quantify the farmers and extensionists' acceptance or rejection of typical assertions expressed previously in the semi-structured interviews. Results: Smallholders showed to gain knowledge from their own experiences and to adapt pesticides practices, which is a potential basis for transforming notions of pesticide safety and risk reduction strategies. Though extensionists have received formal education, they sometimes develop ideas deviating from the technical perspective. The risk perception of the studied actors appeared to vary according to their role in the agricultural labor process; they varied much less than expected according to their schooling level. Conclusions: Commitment to the technical perspective is not dramatically different for extensionists on the one hand and farmers as well as farm workers on the other hand. Ideas about a supposed lack of knowledge by farmers and the need of formal training are too much driven by a deficit model of knowledge. Further research on risk perceptions of pesticides and training of rural people will benefit from the development of a knowledge-in-context model. -- Highlights: • Researching perceptions of farmers' extensionists and other professionals. • Experts as well as farmers deviate from the technical perspective. • Blaming who is responsible for pesticide problems creates expert-lay division. • Qualitative and quantitative methods, not as complementary but integrated. • Knowledge-in-context model as an alternative to the knowledge-deficit model.

  17. Analysis of Casualty Risk per Police-Reported Crash for Model Year 2000 to 2004 Vehicles, using Crash Data from Five States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2011-03-20

    In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.

  18. A simple model for trading climate risk # Sebastien Chaumont, Peter Imkeller and Matthias Muller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imkeller, Peter

    possible market price of risk each agent can maximize the exponential utility from three sources of income supplying gas to retail distributors. If for example the heating season in winter is unusually warm, due to a smaller volume of gas sold profits may shrink. Another example is given by the risk due to big

  19. A simple model for trading climate risk Sebastien Chaumont, Peter Imkeller and Matthias Muller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imkeller, Peter

    possible market price of risk each agent can maximize the exponential utility from three sources of income supplying gas to retail distributors. If for example the heating season in winter is unusually warm, due to a smaller volume of gas sold profits may shrink. Another example is given by the risk due to big

  20. EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -LET Risks to Low Doses and Low Dose Rates .................................................. 15 2.1.5 Low ............................................................... 18 3. EPA Risk Projections for Low-LET Radiation ............................... 21 3.1 Introduction in Projections of LAR for Low-LET Radiation .............. 59 4.1 Introduction

  1. Knowledge representation and integration for portfolio evaluation using linear belief functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Liping; Shenoy, Catherine; Shenoy, Prakash P.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a linear belief function approach to evaluating portfolio performance. By drawing on the notion of linear belief functions, we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear...

  2. Venture Capitalists' Decision to Withdraw: The Role of Portfolio Configuration From a Real Options Lens

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Yong; Chi, Tailan

    2012-01-01

    When does a venture capital firm withdraw from an investment project prior to its completion? This study offers a real options view on this decision by examining the contingent effects of portfolio configuration. We explore ...

  3. Multi-objective evolutionary methods for time-changing portfolio optimization problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hatzakis, Iason

    2007-01-01

    This thesis is focused on the discovery of efficient asset allocations with the use of evolutionary algorithms. The portfolio optimization problem is a multi-objective optimization problem for the conflicting criteria of ...

  4. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-01

    except that certain small-hydro facilities owned by OregonMSW, and less than 1% is small hydro and ocean energy,8% geothermal, and 4% small hydro. Renewables Portfolio

  5. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Sharing Forward and Transfer Ownership

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  6. Appropriateness and feasibility of targeted diversification in a private equity portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Browne, Kathleen R. (Kathleen Rose)

    2006-01-01

    Diversification tools such as modem portfolio theory are used by institutional investors when making asset allocation decisions, which often result in an allocation to the private equity asset class. While some level of ...

  7. Unexploited Gains From International Diversification: Patterns Of Portfolio Holdings Around The World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Didier, Tatiana

    Using unique data on mutual fund portfolios with different investment scopes, we study the extent of international diversification. Mutual funds invest in a surprisingly limited number of stocks—about 100. The number of ...

  8. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Weather Data and Metrics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  9. Managing a portfolio of real options : sequential exploration of dependent prospects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, James L.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the impact of sequential investment and active management on the value of a portfolio of real options. The options are assumed to be interdependent, in that exercise of any one is assumed to produce, in addition ...

  10. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Responding to a Data Request

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  11. EPA ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Understanding Energy Metrics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  12. Resource Portfolio Problem under Relaxed Resource Dedication Policy in a Multi-Project Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yanikoglu, Berrin

    1 Resource Portfolio Problem under Relaxed Resource Dedication Policy in a Multi resource dedication policy, multi-project schedul- ing. 1 Introduction The characterization of the way transfer times. An- other resource management policy called resource dedication policy is proposed

  13. Real Estate Portfolio Allocation: The European Consumers’ Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quigley, John M.

    2006-01-01

    Hedging housing risk. J. Real Estate Finance Econ. 24 (1/2),Improved price indexes for real estate: measuring the coursehousing risk in London. J. Real Estate Finan. Econ. 27 (2),

  14. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS AND ITS POTENTIAL APPLICATION TO UTILITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ;#12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Mike Ringer Principal Author and Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager authored the sections on natural gas price risk and implementation issues, as well as Steven Ostrover.................................................................................. 9 Gas Price Risk

  15. Using the MyDesire2Learn Service to Export Your Learning Portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hitchcock, Adam P.

    Using the MyDesire2Learn Service to Export Your Learning Portfolio If you want to continue to add of data, forever. To export your Learning Portfolio on Avenue to this system you will first have to create and paste the following address in the address bar of your browser: https://avenue.cllmcmaster.ca/d2l/eP/importExport/export/export

  16. An error formula for Monte Carlo based portfolio optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hurd, Thomas R.

    equities, GE, Exxon-Mobil, Coke and Intel. The risk aversion parameter in the optimization is taken over

  17. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.

  18. Coronary Risk Assessment by Point-Based vs. Equation-Based Framingham Models: Significant Implications for Clinical Care

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, William J.; Polansky, Jesse M.; John Boscardin, W.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Steinman, Michael A.

    2010-01-01

    Educa- tion Program risk assessment and potential for riskapproaches of coronary risk assessment–do they work? Am JRESEARCH Coronary Risk Assessment by Point-Based vs.

  19. Development of a total landed cost and risk analysis model for global strategic sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feller, Brian (Brian C.)

    2008-01-01

    Total landed cost and supply chain risk analysis are methods that many companies use to assess strategic sourcing decisions. For this project, landed cost is defined as those costs associated with material movement from a ...

  20. An Information Systems Security Risk Assessment Model Under Dempster- Schafer Theory of Belief Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, Lili; Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.

    2006-01-01

    This study develops an alternative methodology for the risk analysis of information systems security (ISS), an evidential reasoning approach under the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The approach has the following important dimensions...

  1. 2008-01-0709 Modeling Design Concepts under Risk and Uncertainty using

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of Toyota Motor Company and its suppliers, that improvements in early-phase decision making can lead to considerable risk. In this paper, we investigate an alternative to approaches that rely on explicit design

  2. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  3. Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Ning

    Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long-term TC activity, but interpreting these records can ...

  4. Portfolio Review Portfolio Review: Malaria | 32 | Portfolio Review: MalariaThe Wellcome Trust is a charity registered in England and Wales, no. 210183.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rambaut, Andrew

    .2 The importance of clinical research and clinical investigation 38 4.3 Ensure a pipeline of antimalarial drugs 39 I think is the most fundamental thing we risk. Wellcome Trust Expert Group on malaria, April 2010 1

  5. Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, L; Hobbs, Benjamin F; Norman, C S

    the social cost of carbon abatement by as much as 50%? in this setting with risk neutral investors1. Delay can lead to investment in dirty technology in hopes that future policies will favor existing coal plants, or to support of lobbying efforts designed... regulation with auctioned permits, and they hedge against that eventuality in their capacity expansion choices by investing in the relatively clean gas-turbine technology. Figure 3: Effect of risk aversion on capacity decisions, grandfathered emission...

  6. Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 11, 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01636.x Reducing the Effort to Comprehend Risk Models: Text

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 11, 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01636.x Reducing the Effort Soldal Lund,2 and Ketil Stølen2,3 Risk analysis involves people with different roles and competences communication between stakeholders involved in the various stages of risk analysis. This article reports

  7. Risk Assessment using Image-Based Hemodynamic Modeling of Patients with Coronary Artery Aneurysms caused by Kawasaki Disease

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengupta, Dibyendu

    OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Risk Assessment using Image-BasedOF THE DISSERTATION Risk Assessment using Image-Based

  8. Illinois SB 1987: the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    2009-01-15

    On January 12, 2009, Governor Rod Blagojevich signed SB 1987, the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law. The legislation establishes emission standards for new coal-fueled power plants power plants that use coal as their primary feedstock. From 2009-2015, new coal-fueled power plants must capture and store 50 percent of the carbon emissions that the facility would otherwise emit; from 2016-2017, 70 percent must be captured and stored; and after 2017, 90 percent must be captured and stored. SB 1987 also establishes a goal of having 25 percent of electricity used in the state to come from cost-effective coal-fueled power plants that capture and store carbon emissions by 2025. Illinois is the first state to establish a goal for producing electricity from coal-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To support the commercial development of CCS technology, the legislation guarantees purchase agreements for the first Illinois coal facility with CCS technology, the Taylorville Energy Center (TEC); Illinois utilities are required to purchase at least 5 percent of their electricity supply from the TEC, provided that customer rates experience only modest increases. The TEC is expected to be completed in 2014 with the ability to capture and store at least 50 percent of its carbon emissions.

  9. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-11-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders.

  10. Essays on econometric modeling of subjective perceptions of risks in environment and human health 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nguyen, To Ngoc

    2009-05-15

    A large body of literature studies the issues of the option price and other ex-ante welfare measures under the microeconomic theory to valuate reductions of risks inherent in environment and human health. However, it does not offer a careful...

  11. Evolving Beyond Requirements Creep: A Risk-Based Evolutionary Prototyping Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Antón, Annie I.

    of evolutionary prototyping and an aggressive risk- mitigation strategy. Together, these techniques support University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7534 2 Asea Brown Boveri Inc., Power T&D Company 1021 Main Campus Drive particular strength to building quality software by means of the ongoing clarification of existing

  12. Optimal investment with counterparty risk: a default-density model approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Le Pennec, Erwan

    during the financial crisis. Key words: Counterparty risk, contagious loss or gain, density of default the contagious jump and investigated firstly by Jarrow and Yu [10]. For the credit derivative CDS, Brigo to a contagious loss when the asset is positively correlated with the counterparty, while the rise represents

  13. Optimal investment with counterparty risk: a default-density modeling approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pham, Huyên

    during the financial crisis. Key words: Counterparty risk, contagious loss or gain, density of default the contagious jump and investigated firstly by Jarrow and Yu [10]. For the credit derivative CDS, Brigo to a contagious loss when the asset is positively correlated with the counterparty, while the rise represents

  14. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  15. 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

    2010-11-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

  16. Florida Public Hurricane Purpose: To develop and maintain a public computer model to assess hurricane wind, surge and flood related risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Purpose: To develop and maintain a public computer model to assess hurricane wind, surge and flood related risk and to project annual expected insured residential for user defined scenarios. This public model can also be used to quantify the cost benefits of hurricane

  17. Sharing Experiences within AREVA D and D Project Portfolio: Four Illustrations - 13049

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chabeuf, Jean-Michel; Varet, Thierry; AREVA Site Value Development Business Unit, La Hague Site

    2013-07-01

    Over the past ten years, AREVA has performed D and D operations on a wide range of nuclear sites, such as Marcoule and La Hague recycling plants, to Cadarache MOX fuel fabrication plant or Veurey and Annecy metallic Uranium machining plants. Each site is different from the other but some lessons can be shared through this D and D portfolio. In that respect, knowledge management is one of AREVA D and D Technical Department main missions. Four illustrations demonstrate the interest of knowledge share. Waste management is one of the key activities in D and D; It requires a specific characterization methodology, adapted logistics, and optimized waste channels, all of which have been developed over the years by AREVA teams on the site of Marcoule while they are rather new to La Hague, whose main activity remains fuel reprocessing despite the launch of UP2 400 D and D program. The transfer of know how has thus been organized over the past two years. Plasma cutting has been used extensively in Marcoule for years, while prohibited on the site of La Hague following questions raised about the risks associated wit Ruthenium sublimation. La Hague Technical Department has thus developed an experimental protocol to quantify and contain the Ruthenium risk, the result of which will then be applied to Marcoule where the Ruthenium issue has appeared in recent operations. Commissioning and operating fission products evaporators is a rather standard activity on UP2 800 and UP3, while the associated experience has been decreasing in Marcoule following final shutdown in 1998. When the French atomic Energy commission decided to build and operate a new evaporator to concentrate rinsing effluents prior to vitrification in 2009, AREVA La Hague operators were mobilized to test and commission the new equipment, and train local operators. Concrete scabbling is the final stage prior to the free release of a nuclear facility. In the context of Veurey and Annecy final cleanup and declassification, large scale concrete scabbling operations were conducted, and lead to the industrialization of the process and qualification of a new process, NiThrow{sup TM} scabbling technology, developed by AREVA. This experience has now been injected into La Hague D and D scenario and has allowed a significant gain in time and cost for scabbling operations. In short, the variety of experiences and sites under the responsibility of AREVA D and D teams present significant challenges, and yet provide a unique opportunity to innovate and qualify new tools and methods which can then be shared throughout the sites. (authors)

  18. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1558744 The optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1558744 The optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and low-carbon R&D depends on the expected availability of negative emission technologies Derek M optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and low-carbon R&D depends on the expected availability

  19. Challenges, Benefits, & Risks Associated with Integrated Project Delivery and Building Information Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manning, Ryan T.

    2012-12-14

    that inefficiencies in the traditional project delivery methods have been identified. Parallel modeling is the most obvious of the inefficiencies. In parallel modeling, the Contractor re-creates the Architect/Engineer’s BIM model, which was developed during the design...

  20. Jump-Diffusion Risk-Sensitive Asset Management II: Jump-Diffusion Factor Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Mark

    2011-01-01

    In this article we extend earlier work on the jump-diffusion risk-sensitive asset management problem [SIAM J. Fin. Math. (2011) 22-54] by allowing jumps in both the factor process and the asset prices, as well as stochastic volatility and investment constraints. In this case, the HJB equation is a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). By combining viscosity solutions with a change of notation, a policy improvement argument and classical results on parabolic PDEs we prove that the HJB PIDE admits a unique smooth solution. A verification theorem concludes the resolution of this problem.

  1. Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reportedHS. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in theStatement Management of Hepatitis C: June 10-12, 2002. HIV

  2. Modeling the Cumulative Genetic Risk for Multiple Sclerosis from Genome Wide Association Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01

    antigen; LD: linkage disequilibrium; MS: multiple sclerosis;MSSS: Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score; ROC: receiverDS: The causal cascade to multiple sclerosis: a model for MS

  3. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy inWestern Utility Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2005-09-01

    Markets for renewable electricity have grown significantly in recent years, motivated in part by federal tax incentives and in part by state renewables portfolio standards and renewable energy funds. State renewables portfolio standards, for example, motivated approximately 45% of the 4,300 MW of wind power installed in the U.S. from 2001 through 2004, while renewable energy funds supported an additional 15% of these installations. Despite the importance of these state policies, a less widely recognized driver for renewable energy market growth is poised to also play an important role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Formal resource planning processes have re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions - primarily coming from wind power - are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. The treatment of renewable energy in utility resource plans is not uniform, however. Assumptions about the direct and indirect costs of renewable resources, as well as resource availability, differ, as do approaches to incorporating such resources into the candidate portfolios that are analyzed in utility IRPs. The treatment of natural gas price risk, as well as the risk of future environmental regulations, also varies substantially. How utilities balance expected portfolio cost versus risk in selecting a preferred portfolio also differs. Each of these variables may have a substantial effect on the degree to which renewable energy contributes to the preferred portfolio of each utility IRP. This article, which is based on a longer report from Berkeley Lab, examines how twelve western utilities - Avista, Idaho Power, NorthWestern Energy (NorthWestern or NWE), Portland General Electric (PGE), Puget Sound Energy (PSE), PacifiCorp, Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), Nevada Power, Sierra Pacific, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) - treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. In reviewing these plans, our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. This article begins with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities in our sample, followed by an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

  4. Edito. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 3 Portfolio Lutte contre la capture baleinire dans l'ocan Austral . . p. 6

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 3 Portfolio Lutte contre la capture baleinière dans l'océan Austral . . p. 6 HISTOIRE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P.7 TABLEAU DE BORD L'océan au fil des siècles et des cartes . . . . . . . . p. 8 TABLEAU DE BORD � la conquête des mers... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 9 REP�RES Ces batailles navales qui ont

  5. A User Profile-based Approach for Personal Information Access: Shaping Your Information Portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    King, Kuo Chin Irwin

    A User Profile-based Approach for Personal Information Access: Shaping Your Information Portfolio@cse.cuhk.edu.hk ABSTRACT In the spread of internet, internet-based information service business has started to become profitable. One of the key technologies is personalization. Successful internet information services must

  6. A Channel Portfolio Optimization Framework for Trading in a Spectrum Secondary Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    problem to maximize the expected utility. Coupled with the robust secondary market design, the channel market paradigm becomes inherently inefficient, if not detrimental, when applied to this scenario. LegacyA Channel Portfolio Optimization Framework for Trading in a Spectrum Secondary Market Hong Xu, Jin

  7. A Periodic Portfolio Scheduler for Scientific Computing in the Data Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feitelson, Dror

    A Periodic Portfolio Scheduler for Scientific Computing in the Data Center Kefeng Deng1,2 , Ruben.S.Verboon@student.tudelft.nl, A.Iosup@tudelft.nl Abstract. The popularity of data centers in scientific computing has led to new of efficient scheduling algorithms for the data center is an increasingly costlier and more difficult challenge

  8. E-Portfolios for Developing Transferable Skills in a Freshman Engineering Course

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Calvo, Rafael A.

    are essential for engineers in the knowledge economy. This paper describes an approach to develop workers in the knowledge-based economy [4]. Engineering programs are frontrunners in the adoption of ICT1 E-Portfolios for Developing Transferable Skills in a Freshman Engineering Course Lina

  9. Portfolio Theory-Based Resource Assignment in a Cloud Computing System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedram, Massoud

    management in cloud computing systems. Considering that much of the time, server machines in a data center of the means and standard deviations of these random variables. Inspired by the modern portfolio theory computing systems, which are typically housed in facilities called data centers, are composed of a large

  10. Spin-out Company PortfolioTechnology Transfer The Sir Colin Campbell Building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aickelin, Uwe

    -out companies is just one of a number of mechanisms by which universities drive forward the commercialisationSpin-out Company PortfolioTechnology Transfer The Sir Colin Campbell Building The University is to be recognised around the world for our signature contributions, especially in global food security, energy

  11. RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION TEAM Milestones to Permit California Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION TEAM Milestones to Permit California Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy renewable energy resources. In November 2008, the CEC, DFG, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM the Renewable Energy Action Team (REAT) to address permitting issues associated with specific renewable energy

  12. The Diversified International Portfolio for Fusion Based on FIRE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    path: emphasizes innovation before integration at reactor scale, lowers technical risk using multiple facilities with focused objectives, has lower initial costs, and a simplified management structure. This is likely to produce a better product, at lower cost on a faster time scale. The Modular Strategy

  13. Risk Based Maintenance Optimization using Probabilistic Maintenance Quantification Models of Circuit Breaker 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Natti, Satish

    2010-01-14

    New maintenance techniques for circuit breakers are studied in this dissertation by proposing a probabilistic maintenance model and a new methodology to assess circuit breaker condition utilizing its control circuit data. ...

  14. PROJECT INFORMATION FORM Project Title A stochastic multi-agent optimization model for addressing risk and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    : · How would renewable/ alternative energy industry compete with conventional energy energy system planning University University of California, Davis PI Yueyue modeling framework for strategic renewable energy planning, where green technologies

  15. Evaluation of PV performance models and their impact on project risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Cameron, Christopher P.

    2010-12-01

    Photovoltaic systems are often priced in $/W{sub p}, where Wp refers to the DC power rating of the modules at Standard Test Conditions (1000 W/m{sup 2}, 25 C cell temperature) and $ refers to the installed cost of the system. However, the true value of the system is in the energy it will produce in kWhs, not the power rating. System energy production is a function of the system design and location, the mounting configuration, the power conversion system, and the module technology, as well as the solar resource. Even if all other variables are held constant, the annual energy yield (kWh/kW{sup p}) will vary among module technologies because of differences in response to low-light levels and temperature. Understanding energy yield is a key part of understanding system value. System performance models are used during project development to estimate the expected output of PV systems for a given design and location. Performance modeling is normally done by the system designer/system integrator. Often, an independent engineer will also model system output during a due diligence review of a project. A variety of system performance models are available. The most commonly used modeling tool for project development and due diligence in the United States is probably PVsyst, while those seeking a quick answer to expected energy production may use PVWatts. In this paper, we examine the variation in predicted energy output among modeling tools and users and compare that to measured output.

  16. Insider Models with Finite Utility in Markets with Jumps

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Yamazato, Makoto

    2011-10-15

    In this article we consider, under a Levy process model for the stock price, the utility optimization problem for an insider agent whose additional information is the final price of the stock blurred with an additional independent noise which vanishes as the final time approaches. Our main interest is establishing conditions under which the utility of the insider is finite. Mathematically, the problem entails the study of a 'progressive' enlargement of filtration with respect to random measures. We study the jump structure of the process which leads to the conclusion that in most cases the utility of the insider is finite and his optimal portfolio is bounded. This can be explained financially by the high risks involved in models with jumps.

  17. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES FOR CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN JUMP MODELS MASAHIKO EGAMI AND KAZUTOSHI YAMAZAKI

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Egami, Masahiko

    requirements. In this paper, we model the tradeoff between avoiding costs of delay and premature capital the capital adequacy requirements. On the other hand, there is also a cost of premature undertaking of its important concerns is when to raise more capital so as not to violate capital adequacy

  18. Modeling the dosimetry of organ-at-risk in head and neck IMRT planning: An intertechnique and interinstitutional study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lian, Jun, E-mail: jun-lian@med.unc.edu; Chera, Bhishamjit S.; Chang, Sha [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States); Yuan, Lulin, E-mail: lulin.yuan@duke.edu; Yoo, David P.; Yin, FangFang; Wu, Q. Jackie, E-mail: jackie.wu@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Ge, Yaorong [Department of Software and Information Systems, The University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223 (United States)] [Department of Software and Information Systems, The University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    Purpose: To build a statistical model to quantitatively correlate the anatomic features of structures and the corresponding dose-volume histogram (DVH) of head and neck (HN) Tomotherapy (Tomo) plans. To study if the model built upon one intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique (such as conventional Linac) can be used to predict anticipated organs-at-risk (OAR) DVH of patients treated with a different IMRT technique (such as Tomo). To study if the model built upon the clinical experience of one institution can be used to aid IMRT planning for another institution. Methods: Forty-four Tomotherapy intensity modulate radiotherapy plans of HN cases (Tomo-IMRT) from Institution A were included in the study. A different patient group of 53 HN fixed gantry IMRT (FG-IMRT) plans was selected from Institution B. The analyzed OARs included the parotid, larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, and submandibular gland. Two major groups of anatomical features were considered: the volumetric information and the spatial information. The volume information includes the volume of target, OAR, and overlapped volume between target and OAR. The spatial information of OARs relative to PTVs was represented by the distance-to-target histogram (DTH). Important anatomical and dosimetric features were extracted from DTH and DVH by principal component analysis. Two regression models, one for Tomotherapy plan and one for IMRT plan, were built independently. The accuracy of intratreatment-modality model prediction was validated by a leave one out cross-validation method. The intertechnique and interinstitution validations were performed by using the FG-IMRT model to predict the OAR dosimetry of Tomo-IMRT plans. The dosimetry of OARs, under the same and different institutional preferences, was analyzed to examine the correlation between the model prediction and planning protocol. Results: Significant patient anatomical factors contributing to OAR dose sparing in HN Tomotherapy plans have been analyzed and identified. For all the OARs, the discrepancies of dose indices between the model predicted values and the actual plan values were within 2.1%. Similar results were obtained from the modeling of FG-IMRT plans. The parotid gland was spared in a comparable fashion during the treatment planning of two institutions. The model based on FG-IMRT plans was found to predict the median dose of the parotid of Tomotherapy plans quite well, with a mean error of 2.6%. Predictions from the FG-IMRT model suggested the median dose of the larynx, median dose of the brainstem and D2 of the brainstem could be reduced by 10.5%, 12.8%, and 20.4%, respectively, in the Tomo-IMRT plans. This was found to be correlated to the institutional differences in OAR constraint settings. Re-planning of six Tomotherapy patients confirmed the potential of optimization improvement predicted by the FG-IMRT model was correct. Conclusions: The authors established a mathematical model to correlate the anatomical features and dosimetric indexes of OARs of HN patients in Tomotherapy plans. The model can be used for the setup of patient-specific OAR dose sparing goals and quality control of planning results. The institutional clinical experience was incorporated into the model which allows the model from one institution to generate a reference plan for another institution, or another IMRT technique.

  19. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  20. SPECIAL ISSUE PAPER Threat scenariobased security risk analysis using use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    SPECIAL ISSUE PAPER Threat scenariobased security risk analysis using use case modeling & Sons, Ltd. KEYWORDS security risk analysis; qualitative risk analysis; scenario method; use case the risks posed by security threats and prevent them effectively. Security Risk Analysis (SRA

  1. High Cost/High Risk Components to Chalcogenide Molded Lens Model: Molding Preforms and Mold Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernacki, Bruce E.

    2012-10-05

    This brief report contains a critique of two key components of FiveFocal's cost model for glass compression molding of chalcogenide lenses for infrared applications. Molding preforms and mold technology have the greatest influence on the ultimate cost of the product and help determine the volumes needed to select glass molding over conventional single-point diamond turning or grinding and polishing. This brief report highlights key areas of both technologies with recommendations for further study.

  2. Illiquidity Premia in Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis of Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, and US Equity Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Andrew W.

    We establish a link between illiquidity and positive autocorrelation in asset returns among a sample of hedge funds, mutual funds, and various equity portfolios. For hedge funds, this link can be confirmed by comparing the ...

  3. Achieving and sustaining an optimal product portfolio in the healthcare industry through SKU rationalization, complexity costing, and dashboards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilliard, David (David John)

    2012-01-01

    After years of new product launches, and entry into emerging markets, Company X, a healthcare company, has seen its product portfolio proliferate and bring costly complexity into its operations. Today, Company X seeks to ...

  4. An effective approach to choosing project, program and portfolio management software at a large and geographically diverse company

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brost, Missy M. (Missy Marie)

    2009-01-01

    Selecting and deploying an IT tool can be very complicated and expensive. This paper studies a particular approach to choosing project, program and portfolio management software at one large and geographically diverse ...

  5. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-07-11

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  6. Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-08-01

    Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.

  7. Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shin, Hyeong -Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Arnot, Jon A.; Wetmore, Barbara A.; Csiszar, Susan A.; Fantke, Peter; Zhang, Xianming; McKone, Thomas E.; Jolliet, Olivier; Bennett, Deborah H.

    2015-05-01

    We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.g., dermal application, indoor emissions). For each chemical and use scenario, exposure models are then used to calculate a chemical intake fraction, or a product intake fraction, accounting for chemical properties and the exposed population. We then combine these intake fractions with use scenario-specific estimates of chemical quantity to calculate dailymore »intake rates (iR; mg/kg/day). These intake rates are compared to oral equivalent doses (OED; mg/kg/day), calculated from a suite of ToxCast in vitro bioactivity assays using in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation and reverse dosimetry. Bioactivity quotients (BQs) are calculated as iR/OED to obtain estimates of potential impact associated with each relevant use scenario. Of the 180 chemicals considered, 38 had maximum iRs exceeding minimum OEDs (i.e., BQs > 1). For most of these compounds, exposures are associated with direct intake, food/oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models.« less

  8. Including Alternative Resources in State Renewable Portfolio Standards: Current Design and Implementation Experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Bird, L.

    2012-11-01

    Currently, 29 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have instituted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). An RPS sets a minimum threshold for how much renewable energy must be generated in a given year. Each state policy is unique, varying in percentage targets, timetables, and eligible resources. This paper examines state experience with implementing renewable portfolio standards that include energy efficiency, thermal resources, and non-renewable energy and explores compliance experience, costs, and how states evaluate, measure, and verify energy efficiency and convert thermal energy. It aims to gain insights from the experience of states for possible federal clean energy policy as well as to share experience and lessons for state RPS implementation.

  9. MULTIPERIOD INSURANCE SUPERVISION: TOP-DOWN MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franchi, Jacques

    by the cost-of-capital method, i.e. a fictitious standardized transfer of the obligations to new investors and a multiperiod risk assessment. In addition an assumption on the cost-of-capital ratio is used. Key words and phrases. Cost of capital, "Fremd"- versus "Eigen"-capital (own funds), op- timal replicating portfolio

  10. Application of the bioecological model and health belief model to self-reported health risk behaviors of adolescents in the united states 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fleary, Sasha A.

    2009-05-15

    . Adolescents from a suburban Indiana area were asked to complete the Adolescent Health Risk Behavior Survey which assessed egocentrism, self-esteem, social norms, risk perceptions, and the incidence and prevalence of health endangering behaviors. Hierarchical...

  11. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  12. TAYLOR, KINLEY BRITT. Identifying and Modeling Perceptions of Risk Factors in Hand Hygiene during Healthcare Operations. (Under the direction of Dr. David B. Kaber.)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaber, David B.

    ABSTRACT TAYLOR, KINLEY BRITT. Identifying and Modeling Perceptions of Risk Factors in Hand Hygiene, hand hygiene is considered to be one of the primary practices to prevent hospital acquired infections. However, hand hygiene compliance remains low in the vast majority of healthcare facilities, averaging

  13. Section 3: Office Portfolio Management, Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Year Program Plan, March 2015

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergy BillsNo.Hydrogen4 » Searchwith First JamesofAward ofFrequentlyPortfolio

  14. A brief discourse on credit risk 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiser, Georg Johannes

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews existing models for credit risk. Different approaches for credit risk for fixed interest investments and for derivatives are discussed....

  15. Essays on Bank Optimal Portfolio Choice under Liquidity Constraint 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Eul Jin

    2012-10-19

    Long term asset creates more revenue, however it is riskier in a liquidity sense. Our question is: How does a liquidity constrained bank make decisions between profitability and liquidity? We present a computable DSGE model of banks optimal...

  16. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated risk assessment that could assist in the EM prioritization efforts. (authors)

  17. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of State Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff

    2009-01-01

    and Benefits of State Renewables Portfolio Standards: AM. Fripp. 2004. Putting Renewables to Work: How Many JobsLos Angeles Can Reach 20% Renewables Without Raising Rates.

  18. Mittelfristige risikoorientierte Optimierung von Strombeschaffungs-Portfolios kleinerer Marktteilnehmer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    erfordert eine stochastische Model- lierung verschiedener Modellparameter ­ der zu deckenden Last, den Spot¨adtischen Gebieten mit gleichzeitig hohem Strom- und W¨armebedarf erfolgt h¨aufig eine gekoppelte Erzeugung von- nehmen, die Strom an Letztverbraucher liefern, verpflichtet, den vom jeweils regelverantwort- lichen

  19. Multi-Year Analysis of Renewable Energy Impacts in California: Results from the Renewable Portfolio Standards Integration Cost Analysis; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Shiu, H.; Kirby, B.; Jackson, K.

    2006-08-01

    California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, Senate Bill 1078) requires the state's investor-owned utilities to obtain 20% of their energy mix from renewable generation sources. To facilitate the imminent increase in the penetration of renewables, the California Energy Commission (CEC), in support of the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC), initiated a study of integration costs in the context of RPS implementation. This effort estimated the impact of renewable generation in the regulation and load-following time scales and calculated the capacity value of renewable energy sources using a reliability model. The analysis team, consisting of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the California Wind Energy Collaborative (CWEC), performed the study in cooperation with the California Independent System Operator (CaISO), the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), and Southern California Edison (SCE). The study was conducted over three phases and was followed by an analysis of a multi-year period. This paper presents results from the multi-year analysis and the Phase III recommendations.

  20. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard (Report Summary) (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-06-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  1. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-05-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  2. Capacity Factor Risk At Nuclear Power Plants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Du, Yangbo

    We develop a model of the dynamic structure of capacity factor risk. It incorporates the risk that the capacity factor may vary widely from year-to-year, and also the risk that the reactor may be permanently shutdown prior ...

  3. Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would like submitKansasCommunities EnergyU.S.Engineering Metal(2) Cu (3)Enrico

  4. Complex Dynamics in Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models with Boundedly Rational, Heterogeneous

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    their optimal portfolio and the market equilibrium, investors must compute future aggregate demands for assets] for critiques of equilibrium models and the response [4] by Robert Lucas. 3The Lucas [5] paper is one one

  5. NREL: State and Local Governments - Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS - Simple Model ofData

  6. ON THE RISK-ADJUSTED PRICING-METHODOLOGY-BASED VALUATION OF VANILLA OPTIONS AND EXPLANATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sevcovic, Daniel

    and perform extensive numerical testing of the model and compare the results to real option market data be used in qualitative and quantitative analyses of option market data. 1. Introduction In the past years a volatile portfolio are negligible. On the other hand, if transaction costs like, for example, bid

  7. Modeling the Risk of Radiation-Induced Acute Esophagitis for Combined Washington University and RTOG Trial 93-11 Lung Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Ellen X.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO (United States); Hope, Andrew J.; Lindsay, Patricia E. [Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Bosch, Walter R.; Matthews, John W. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO (United States); Sause, William T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, LDS Hospital, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Graham, Mary V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Phelps County Regional Hospital, Rolla, MO (United States); Deasy, Joseph O., E-mail: deasyj@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To construct a maximally predictive model of the risk of severe acute esophagitis (AE) for patients who receive definitive radiation therapy (RT) for non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The dataset includes Washington University and RTOG 93-11 clinical trial data (events/patients: 120/374, WUSTL = 101/237, RTOG9311 = 19/137). Statistical model building was performed based on dosimetric and clinical parameters (patient age, sex, weight loss, pretreatment chemotherapy, concurrent chemotherapy, fraction size). A wide range of dose-volume parameters were extracted from dearchived treatment plans, including Dx, Vx, MOHx (mean of hottest x% volume), MOCx (mean of coldest x% volume), and gEUD (generalized equivalent uniform dose) values. Results: The most significant single parameters for predicting acute esophagitis (RTOG Grade 2 or greater) were MOH85, mean esophagus dose (MED), and V30. A superior-inferior weighted dose-center position was derived but not found to be significant. Fraction size was found to be significant on univariate logistic analysis (Spearman R = 0.421, p < 0.00001) but not multivariate logistic modeling. Cross-validation model building was used to determine that an optimal model size needed only two parameters (MOH85 and concurrent chemotherapy, robustly selected on bootstrap model-rebuilding). Mean esophagus dose (MED) is preferred instead of MOH85, as it gives nearly the same statistical performance and is easier to compute. AE risk is given as a logistic function of (0.0688 Asterisk-Operator MED+1.50 Asterisk-Operator ConChemo-3.13), where MED is in Gy and ConChemo is either 1 (yes) if concurrent chemotherapy was given, or 0 (no). This model correlates to the observed risk of AE with a Spearman coefficient of 0.629 (p < 0.000001). Conclusions: Multivariate statistical model building with cross-validation suggests that a two-variable logistic model based on mean dose and the use of concurrent chemotherapy robustly predicts acute esophagitis risk in combined-data WUSTL and RTOG 93-11 trial datasets.

  8. Topics in Quantitative Risk Management Paul Embrechts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Embrechts, Paul

    Topics in Quantitative Risk Management Paul Embrechts ETH-Z¨urich 1. Basel II and its risk management consequences 2. An overview of credit risk models 3. Modelling extremes: use and limitations 4@math.ethz.ch Homepage: http://www.math.ethz.ch/embrechts #12;Lecture 1: Basel II and its risk management consequences

  9. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Key, Thomas S [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); Deb, Rajat [LCG Consulting

    2009-05-01

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, not including Florida, is approximately 24% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient long distant transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. It shows that development of wind resources will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  10. The Economics of LEED-EB for Single Buildings and Building Portfolios 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arny, M.

    2008-01-01

    stream_source_info ESL-HH-08-12-25.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 1725 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name ESL-HH-08-12-25.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 P. O. Box 5425..., Madison, WI 53705 1526 Chandler St., Madison, WI 53711 ph. 608.280.0255 fx. 608.255.7202 www.leonardoacademy.org 1 The Economics of LEED-EB for Single Buildings and Building Portfolios PRESENTED...

  11. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-003 Revision 1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 OutreachProductswsicloudwsiclouddenDVA N C E D B L O O DBiomass andAtoms for Peace after 50 Years:J-16 Portfolio

  12. Impact Evaluation of the FY2012-13 Site-Specific Savings Portfolio

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverseIMPACT EVALUATION PLAN FOR THE SITE- SPECIFIC SAVINGS PORTFOLIO Prepared

  13. CiCS Development Portfolio Overview Information Services is a constantly changing area, and CiCS therefore has to not only manage and maintain our

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, Stephen John

    CS therefore has to not only manage and maintain our services, but also organise the many significant changes management CiCS Development Portfolio ­ Overview: Page 1 of 2 Change the Services Portfolio Management (Projects/developments & Benefits) Run the Services Service Management New/Changed Services Strategic

  14. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of a small set of comprehensive event trees and fault trees and recommendation for future work.

  15. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical the numbers of injecting drug users and female sex workers in Bangladesh. Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Methods of Intravenous Drug Users in Bangladesh in 2004 7 3.1 Results from the multiplier method

  16. Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

  17. 4968 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 28, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2013 Optimized FTR Portfolio Construction Based on the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gross, George

    Construction Based on the Identification of Congested Network Elements Dimitra Apostolopoulou, George Gross, and Teoman Güler Abstract--This paper focuses on the construction of an opti- mized financial transmission with the effective deployment of the orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm to construct the optimized FTR portfolio

  18. Risk Analysis for Water Resources Under Climate Change, Population Growth, and Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiparsky, Michael

    2010-01-01

    scale. Thus, analysis of flood risk, sub-monthly instream-on water supply risk, and does not address flood risk.water resources modeling, flood risk and water supply risk

  19. Risk Prioritization

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Quality Managers Software Quality Assurance Subcommittee Reference Document SQAS21.01.00 - 1999 Software Risk Management A Practical Guide February, 2000 Abstract This document is...

  20. Interior Point Methods, Nonlinear Models & Parallelisation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grothey, Andreas

    ;Overview Asset and Liability Management Models Mean-Variance Formulation/Stochastic Programming Structure Grothey IPM, Nonlinear Models & Parallelisation #12;Portfolio Optimization: Asset and Liability Management and Liability Management A set of assets J = {1, ..., J} is given (e.g. bonds, stock, real estate). At every

  1. Validation of mathematical models for the prediction of organs-at-risk dosimetric metrics in high-dose-rate gynecologic interstitial brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damato, Antonio L.; Viswanathan, Akila N.; Cormack, Robert A. [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States)] [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Given the complicated nature of an interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy treatment plan, the use of a quantitative tool to evaluate the quality of the achieved metrics compared to clinical practice would be advantageous. For this purpose, predictive mathematical models to predict the D{sub 2cc} of rectum and bladder in interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy are discussed and validated.Methods: Previous plans were used to establish the relationship between D2cc and the overlapping volume of the organ at risk with the targeted area (C0) or a 1-cm expansion of the target area (C1). Three mathematical models were evaluated: D{sub 2cc}=?*C{sub 1}+? (LIN); D{sub 2cc}=?– exp(–?*C{sub 0}) (EXP); and a mixed approach (MIX), where both C{sub 0} and C{sub 1} were inputs of the model. The parameters of the models were optimized on a training set of patient data, and the predictive error of each model (predicted D{sub 2cc}? real D{sub 2cc}) was calculated on a validation set of patient data. The data of 20 patients were used to perform a K-fold cross validation analysis, with K = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 20.Results: MIX was associated with the smallest mean prediction error <6.4% for an 18-patient training set; LIN had an error <8.5%; EXP had an error <8.3%. Best case scenario analysis shows that an error ?5% can be achieved for a ten-patient training set with MIX, an error ?7.4% for LIN, and an error ?6.9% for EXP. The error decreases with the increase in training set size, with the most marked decrease observed for MIX.Conclusions: The MIX model can predict the D{sub 2cc} of the organs at risk with an error lower than 5% with a training set of ten patients or greater. The model can be used in the development of quality assurance tools to identify treatment plans with suboptimal sparing of the organs at risk. It can also be used to improve preplanning and in the development of real-time intraoperative planning tools.

  2. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  3. SPACE WEATHER RISKS FROM AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    SPACE WEATHER RISKS FROM AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE 26.04.2011 Jan Eichner ­ Geo Risks Research #12, including geophysical hazards, weather-related hazards and potential consequences of climate change weather). · Linking geo-scientific research with business expertise in risk assessment, risk modeling

  4. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Key, Thomas S; Hadley, Stanton W; Deb, Rajat

    2010-02-01

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, including Florida, is approximately 32% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. We found that significant wind energy transfers, at the level of 30-60 GW, are expected to be economic in case of federal RPC or CO2 policy. Development of wind resources will depend not only on the available transmission capacity and required balancing resources, but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  5. Valuing Groundwater Services and Water Portfolio in Irrigated Agriculture with a Hedonic Pricing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukherjee, Monobina

    2013-01-01

    The development of centrifugal pumps allowed deep wells toThe development of centrifugal pumps allowed deep wells to

  6. Valuing Groundwater Services and Water Portfolio in Irrigated Agriculture with a Hedonic Pricing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukherjee, Monobina

    2013-01-01

    2647-2668. Surface and Groundwater. 2012. U.S. EnvironmentalEstimating the Value of Groundwater in Irrigation, SelectedAgricultural adaptation to groundwater and climate. NBER

  7. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-02-01

    The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.

  8. Enterprise Risk Management Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayden, Nancy J.

    Enterprise Risk Management Program DRAFT Introduction to Enterprise Risk Management at UVM 1 #12;Enterprise Risk Management Program DRAFT What is Enterprise Risk Management? Enterprise risk management governance, and accountability · Facilitates effective management of the uncertainty and associated risks

  9. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST`s wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots.

  10. Risk Management under Liquidity Risk: Liquidity inclusive Risk Measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brigo, Damiano

    Risk Management under Liquidity Risk: Liquidity inclusive Risk Measures GARP Seminar, London, Nov://www.capco.com/capco-insights -- Joint work with Claudio Nordio Prof. D. Brigo (Imperial College and Capco) Risk Management under Management under Liquidity Risk GARP Seminar London 2 / 60 #12;Introduction Liquidity in Risk Measurement

  11. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  12. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate...

  13. Results of a Technical Review of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program's R&D Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Marilyn A

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) is a multi-agency planning and coordinating entity, led by the U.S. Department of Energy that aims to accelerate the development and facilitate the adoption of technologies to address climate change. In late 2005, CCTP asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Energetics Incorporated to organize and coordinate a review of the CCTP R&D portfolio using structured workshops. Each workshop focused on one of CCTP's six strategic goals: 1.Reduce emissions from energy end-use and infrastructure 2.Reduce emissions from energy supply 3.Capture and sequester carbon dioxide 4.Reduce emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG) 5.Improve capabilities to measure and monitor GHG emissions 6.Bolster basic science contributions to technology development To promote meaningful dialogue while ensuring broad coverage, a group of broadly experienced professionals with expertise in fields relevant to each CCTP goal were asked to participate in the portfolio reviews and associated workshops. A total of 75 experts participated in the workshops; 60 of these participants represented non-Federal organizations. This report summarizes the findings of the workshops and the results of the Delphi assessment of the CCTP R&D portfolio.

  14. Broccoli Reduces The Risk of Splenetic Fever! The use of induction and falsifiability in statistics and model selection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William M Briggs

    2006-10-27

    The title, a headline, and a typical one, from a newspaper's "Health & Wellness" section, usually written by a reporter who has just read a medical journal, can only be the result of an inductive argument, which is an argument from known contingent premisses to the unknown. What are the premisses and what is unknown for this headline and what does it mean to statistics? The importance--and rationality--of inductive arguments and their relation to the frequently invoked, but widely and poorly misunderstood, notion of `falsifiability' are explained in the context of statistical model selection. No probability model can be falsified, and no hope for model buidling should be sought in that concept.

  15. Risk aggregation in Solvency II: How to converge the approaches of the internal models and those of the standard formula?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of the standard formula? Laurent Devineau Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Laboratoire de Science the Solvency II economic capital: the use of a standard formula or the use of an internal model (global demonstrate that the standard formula can be considered as a first order approximation of the result

  16. Seismic risk assessment of spatially-distributed systems using ground-motion models fitted considering spatial correlation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baker, Jack W.

    University, CA, USA ABSTRACT: Ground-motion models are commonly used in earthquake engineering to predict) at site j during earthquake i; f(PPPij,) denotes the ground-motion prediction function with predictive the probability distribution of the ground-motion intensity at a given site due to a particular earthquake event

  17. The Dempster-Schafer Theory of Belief Functions for Managing Uncertainties: An Introduction and Fraud Risk Assessment Illustration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.; Gao, Lei

    2011-01-01

    fraud risk assessment formula for a simplified version of a model developed by Srivastava, Mock, and Turner (2007). In our formulation, fraud risk is the normalized product of four risks: risk that management has incentives to commit fraud, risk...

  18. Power Utility Maximization in Constrained Exponential Lvy Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nutz, Marcel

    Power Utility Maximization in Constrained Exponential Lévy Models Marcel Nutz ETH Zurich. Abstract We study power utility maximization for exponential Lévy models with portfolio constraints, where utility is obtained from consumption and/or terminal wealth. For convex constraints, an explicit solution

  19. Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nutz, Marcel

    Utility Maximization under Model Uncertainty in Discrete Time Marcel Nutz January 14, 2014 Abstract We give a general formulation of the utility maximization problem under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time and show that an optimal portfolio exists for any utility function

  20. Supporting Solar Power in Renewables Portfolio Standards: Experience from the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Holt, Edward

    2010-10-01

    Among the available options for encouraging the increased deployment of renewable electricity, renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have become increasingly popular. The RPS is a relatively new policy mechanism, however, and experience with its use is only beginning to emerge. One key concern that has been voiced is whether RPS policies will offer adequate support to a wide range of renewable energy technologies and applications or whether, alternatively, RPS programs will favor a small number of the currently least-cost forms of renewable energy. This report documents the design of and early experience with state-level RPS programs in the United States that have been specifically tailored to encourage a wider diversity of renewable energy technologies, and solar energy in particular. As shown here, state-level RPS programs specifically designed to support solar have already proven to be an important, albeit somewhat modest, driver for solar energy deployment, and those impacts are projected to continue to build in the coming years. State experience in supporting solar energy with RPS programs is mixed, however, and full compliance with existing requirements has not been achieved. The comparative experiences described herein highlight the opportunities and challenges of applying an RPS to specifically support solar energy, as well as the importance of policy design details to ensuring that program goals are achieved.

  1. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, Jenny; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Weaver, Samantha; Flores, Francisco; Kuskova-Burns, Ksenia; Wiser, Ryan

    2014-03-12

    More than half of U.S. states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in place and have collectively deployed approximately 46,000 MW of new renewable energy capacity through year-end 2012. Most of these policies have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS benefits and costs is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. A key aspect of this study is the comprehensive review of existing RPS cost and benefit estimates, in addition to an examination of the variety of methods used to calculate such estimates. Based on available data and estimates reported by utilities and regulators, this study summarizes RPS costs to date. The study considers how those costs may evolve going forward, given scheduled increases in RPS targets and cost containment mechanisms incorporated into existing policies. The report also summarizes RPS benefits estimates, based on published studies for individual states, and discusses key methodological considerations.

  2. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  3. Journal of Engineering Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 285-301 Risk Analysis for Large Engineering Projects: Modeling Cost Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Dorp, Johan René

    Journal of Engineering Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 285-301 1 Risk Analysis for Large Carlo simulation of activity networks has generated interest as a method for cost/schedule risk analysis risk analysis is now widely available as extensions to many popular project management

  4. Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 8, 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01241.x Communicating About Xenotransplantation: Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spirtes, Peter

    Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 8, 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01241.x Communicating About the attendant risks, 1105 0272-4332/09/0100-1105$22.00/1 C 2009 Society for Risk Analysis #12;1106 Bruine de

  5. Risk Aversion in Inventory Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Xin

    Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. ...

  6. Resource allocation using risk analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bott, T. F. (Terrence F.); Eisenhawer, S. W. (Stephen W.)

    2003-01-01

    Allocating limited resources among competing priorities is an important problem in management. In this paper we describe an approach to resource allocation using risk as a metric. We call this approach the Logic-Evolved Decision (LED) approach because we use logic-models to generate an exhaustive set of competing options and to describe the often highly complex model used for evaluating the risk reduction achieved by different resource allocations among these options. The risk evaluation then proceeds using probabilistic or linguistic input data.

  7. Power Blackout Risks Risk Management Options

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrijver, Karel

    Power Blackout Risks Risk Management Options Emerging Risk Initiative ­ Position Paper November 2011 #12;2 Content 1. Summary 3 2. Power blackouts challenge society and economy 4 3. Blackout risks on the increase 5 3.1. How power market trends influence blackout risks 5 3.1.1. Liberalisation and privatisation

  8. Risk Assessment Scheme of Infection Transmission Indoors Incorporating the Impact of Resuspension

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    You, Siming; Wan, Man Pun

    2015-01-01

    dose-response modeling. Risk Analysis, 2007; 27(6):1581– 18.Uncertainty analysis. Risk Analysis 2011; 21. Jones RM,microbial risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 2009; 29(3):355–

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis of groundwater remediation strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolster, Diogo

    Probabilistic risk analysis of groundwater remediation strategies D. Bolster,1 M. Barahona,1 M uncertainty quantification and risk analysis. When these modeling components are ignored, the failure is emerging that risk analysis must be an integral part of decision making in subsurface hydrology, its

  10. Global Warming, endogenous risk and irreversibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Anthony C.; Narain, Urvashi

    2002-01-01

    The economics of global warming, Institute for InternationalEconomic Models of Global Warming, Cambridge, Mass. MITstochastic losses from global warming, Risk Analysis 16(2):

  11. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    Analysis of a 10-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard. SR/Impacts of a 15-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard. SR/through Increased Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy

  12. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  13. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Churchill, Susannah; Deyette, Jeff; Holt, Ed

    2008-04-09

    Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have proliferated at the state level in the United States since the late 1990s. In combination with Federal tax incentives, state RPS requirements have emerged as one of the most important drivers of renewable energy capacity additions. The focus of most RPS activity in the U.S. has been within the states. Nonetheless, the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate have, at different times, each passed versions of a Federal RPS; a Federal RPS, however, has not yet been signed into law. The design of an RPS can and does vary, but at its heart an RPS simply requires retail electricity suppliers (also called load-serving entities, or LSEs) to procure a certain minimum quantity of eligible renewable energy. An RPS establishes numeric targets for renewable energy supply, applies those targets to retail electricity suppliers, and seeks to encourage competition among renewable developers to meet the targets in a least-cost fashion. RPS purchase obligations generally increase over time, and retail suppliers typically must demonstrate compliance on an annual basis. Mandatory RPS policies are backed by various types of compliance enforcement mechanisms, and many--but not all--such policies include the trading of renewable energy certificates (RECs). Renewables portfolio standards are a relatively recent addition to the renewable energy policy landscape, and these policies continue to evolve. Keeping up with the design, early experience, and projected impacts of these programs is a challenge. This report seeks to fill this need by providing basic, factual information on RPS policies in the United States. It focuses on state-level initiatives, though a later section briefly discusses Federal developments as well. The report does not cover municipal-level renewable energy goals, unless required by state law. Similarly, this report focuses on mandatory state RPS requirements, though it also touches on non-binding renewable energy goals, especially when those goals are developed by state law or regulation. This report is the first of what is envisioned to be an ongoing series; as such, it concentrates on key recent developments, while also providing basic information on historical RPS experience and design. The report begins with an overview of state RPS policies: where they have been developed, when, and with what design features. Though most RPS programs are still in their infancy, the report summarizes the early impacts of these policies on renewable energy development, and provides a forecast of possible future impacts. It then turns to the implications of the growing trend towards solar and/or distributed generation set-asides within state RPS programs. Next, the report highlights state RPS compliance levels, enforcement actions, and cost impacts, as well as key developments in REC markets. Finally, the report provides a brief overview of Federal RPS proposals.

  14. A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk; Lee, Nam Kwon; Jung, So-Youn; Kim, Tae Hyun; Lee, Eun Sook; Kang, Han-Sung; Shin, Kyung Hwan

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.

  15. ENERGY STAR&reg; Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergyTher i n cEnergy (AZ, CA,EnergystudentThis document gives anSTAR ® Portfolio

  16. Enterprise Risk Management Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayden, Nancy J.

    Enterprise Risk Management Program Guide to Risk Assessment & Response August 16, 2012 #12; i ...........26 List of Figures Figure 1: The Risk Management Process.......................................................................................................12 #12; 1 Overview The risk management process--of identifying, analyzing, evaluating

  17. Site Risks:

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effect Photovoltaics -7541 UnlimitedShiftwater vaporRisks: ï‚· Radiation - alpha,

  18. New techniques in project portfolio management don't stifle innovation with excessive phasing and gates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Cameron (Cameron Ardell Mayhew)

    2014-01-01

    Managing multiple ideas, candidate initiatives and in-flight projects across diverse business units is a large challenge for major organizations. Overseeing global demand for projects as well as resource needs, risks, ...

  19. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 9

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  20. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 7

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  1. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 8

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  2. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 5

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  3. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 3

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  4. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 6

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  5. Updated 10-14-2014 Risk Management Guide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kavanagh, Karen L.

    of drones, model aircraft, and other UAV's exhibit the potential risk for an aircraft crash and therefore

  6. Carbon tax or carbon permits: The impact on generators' risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Green, R.

    2008-07-01

    Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalized market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with costs that are not correlated with price, even if those costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators' profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted.

  7. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  8. Risk Management, Mar 2012 Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Management, Mar 2012 Risk Management Conditions of Volunteer Service (Please send completed form to the Office of Risk Management) riskmanagement@uoregon.edu Fax: 541-346-7008 As a volunteer Tort Claims Act, ORS 30.260-300, and Oregon Department of Administrative Services Risk Management

  9. A Drop in the Bucket or a Pebble in a Pond: Commercial Building Partners’ Replication of EEMs Across Their Portfolios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.; Baechler, Michael C.; Dillon, Heather E.

    2014-08-18

    This study presents findings from questionnaire and interview data investigating replication efforts of Commercial Building Partnership (CBP) partners that worked directly with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL partnered with 12 organizations on new and retrofit construction projects as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) CBP program. PNNL and other national laboratories collaborate with industry leaders that own large portfolios of buildings to develop high performance projects for new construction and renovation. This project accelerates market adoption of commercially available energy saving technologies into the design process for new and upgraded commercial buildings. The labs provide assistance to the partners’ design teams and make a business case for energy investments. From the owner’s perspective, a sound investment results in energy savings based on corporate objectives and design. Through a feedback questionnaire, along with personal interviews, PNNL gathered qualitative and quantitative information relating to replication efforts by each organization. Data through this process were analyzed to provide insight into two primary research areas: 1) CBP partners’ replication efforts of technologies and approaches used in the CBP project to the rest of the organization’s building portfolio (including replication verification), and, 2) the market potential for technology diffusion into the total U.S. commercial building stock, as a direct result of the CBP entire program.

  10. The Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking With U.S.Week Day Year(active tab) 2016TheThe Energy Data JamEnergy

  11. Common risk factors in bank stocks 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Viale, Ariel Marcelo

    2007-09-17

    This dissertation provides evidence on the risk factors that are priced in bank equities. Alternative empirical models with precedent in the nonfinancial asset pricing literature are tested, including the single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model...

  12. DOMESTIC RADON RISKS MAY BE DOMINATED BY BYSTANDER EFFECTS--BUT THE RISKS ARE UNLIKELY TO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brenner, David Jonathan

    Paper DOMESTIC RADON RISKS MAY BE DOMINATED BY BYSTANDER EFFECTS--BUT THE RISKS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN WE THOUGHT D. J. Brenner* and R. K. Sachs Abstract--Radon risks derive from exposure are manifestations of the same basic phenomenon. The model was fitted to dose- and dose-rate dependent radon- exposed

  13. Principal wind turbines for a conditional portfolio approach to wind farms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopes, Vitor V; Raischel, Frank; Lind, Pedro G

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a measure for estimating the best risk-return relation of power production in wind farms within a given time-lag, conditioned to the velocity field. The velocity field is represented by a scalar that weighs the influence of the velocity at each wind turbine at present and previous time-steps for the present "state" of the wind field. The scalar measure introduced is a linear combination of the few turbines, that most influence the overall power production. This quantity is then used as the condition for computing a conditional expected return and corresponding risk associated to the future total power output.

  14. RPM Assessment / Council document 2012-14 1 Assessment of the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .............................................................................................................32 4.3. Projected Work Items solutions for energy risk management, portfolio planning, and asset valuation for over two decades. His expertise with large-scale physical and financial risk modeling has proved his company, Ascend Analytics

  15. TOWARD A HUMAN-CENTERED UML FOR RISK ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guiochet, Jérémie

    TOWARD A HUMAN-CENTERED UML FOR RISK ANALYSIS Application to a medical robot Jérémie Guiochet1. The first and important step of this activity is risk analysis. During risk analysis, two main studies, this paper proposes to treat the risk analysis on the common expression language UML (Unified Modeling

  16. ARMOR: Analyzer for Reducing Module Operational Risk Michael R. Lyu

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lyu, Michael R.

    contained in software systems or modules. To model software risk the quality indica­ tors of software and establishment of quality index of software programs. However, few tool can both perform sophisticated risk for Reducing Module Operational Risk) is a software risk analysis tool which automati­ cally identifies

  17. Targeted CT Screening for Lung Cancer using Absolute Risk Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brent, Roger

    Targeted CT Screening for Lung Cancer using Absolute Risk Prediction Stephanie A. Kovalchik skovalch@rand.org FHCRC 2014 Risk Prediction Symposium June 11, 2014 1 #12;Outline · Lung Cancer Epidemiology and Screening · Screening Benefit and Absolute Risk · Absolute Risk Model for Lung Cancer

  18. Assessment of the effectiveness of the advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (apram) as a decision support tool for construction projects 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imbeah, William Kweku Ansah

    2007-09-17

    Construction projects are complicated and fraught with so many risks that many projects are unable to meet pre-defined project objectives. Managers of construction projects require decision support tools that can be used ...

  19. Pay Tools Portfolio 2014-2015: Key Points to Optimize Impact (updated December 2014) 1. Values: While developing our pay initiatives, we have been mindful of our values.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gasch, Audrey P.

    Pay Tools Portfolio 2014-2015: Key Points to Optimize Impact (updated December 2014) 1. Values be mindful of market and equity and build pay tools beyond the weak or non-existent pay plans of recent years. 2. Sequencing strategy for decision making: In the case of faculty, we have multiple tools in our

  20. Uploading Files to Your University Writing Portfolio: ENGL 1100 & Note: If your file is over 250mb, please see the section in troubleshooting about uploading files

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gopalakrishnan, K.

    a saved document from your computer into your University Writing Portfolio. 8. Select the document you forgot to save your document with the course prefix and course number. BE SURE to save or change finished, click "save file(s)." Always SAVE after uploading new content! *Tip: You may upload and rename

  1. Abstract--In Probabilistic Risk Management, risk is characterized by two quantities: the magnitude (or severity) of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Abstract-- In Probabilistic Risk Management, risk is characterized by two quantities scale: urban risks management models belong to self-organized criticality theory. We chose multiagent of important groups of them. Index Terms-- Risk management, self-organized criticality, multiagent systems

  2. Risk Management Policy 1 Risk Management Policy (December, 2014)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wapstra, Erik

    Risk Management Policy 1 Risk Management Policy (December, 2014) Risk Management Policy Responsible Governance Level Principle No. 2 - Risk Management Responsible Organisational Unit Audit & Risk CONTENTS 1 ........................................................................................................2 3.1 Effective Risk Management

  3. Risk Management Strategy Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edinburgh, University of

    Risk Management Strategy Introduction 1. The risk of adverse consequences is inherent in all activity. Dynamic enterprise will inevitably create new risks. Risk management is about ensuring that all significant relevant risks are understood and prioritised as part of normal management

  4. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  5. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  6. Risk Dynamics?An Analysis for the Risk of Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Tailin

    2010-01-01

    Risk Assessment?" Risk Analysis, Aubrey, A. (2010). "T. (2003). Foundations of Risk Analysis : A Knowledge andNJ. Ayyub, B. M. (2003). Risk Analysis in Engineering and

  7. Risk and robust optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, David Benjamin, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2006-01-01

    This thesis develops and explores the connections between risk theory and robust optimization. Specifically, we show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between a class of risk measures known as coherent risk measures ...

  8. Why Risk Assessment? Because ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Why Risk Assessment? Because ... CORAS is committed to supporting international industry can take advantage of the CORAS technology in order to give their mission critical risk assessment assessment methodology integrating techniques and features from partly complementary risk assessment methods

  9. BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PL LDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Florida, University of

    BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PL LDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A R RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDIN T PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEM

  10. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are...

  11. StochasticAnalysisandApplications,Vol.23,No.4(2005),pp.687-704 A NOTE ON MERTON'S PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROBLEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karlsen, Kenneth Hvistendahl

    2005-01-01

    for the spot price evolution of com- modities like gold or coffee, and energies like oil, gas, and electricity (see also Clewlow and Strickland [2] or Pilipovic [6]), but could also be a model for the price for an agent in a financial market where the risky asset follows the price dynamics of Schwartz, and the risk

  12. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, N,

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic ...

  13. Introduction Literature Review Supply Chain Network Model Simulation Studies Managerial Insights and Conclusions Supply Chain Outsourcing Under Exchange Rate Risk and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    generally reduces production costs. From 2000 to 2007, 70 percent of U.S. non-oil import growth was driven Foreign exchange risk is consistently considered to be on the list of top concerns of supply chain executives. A study conducted by The Economist, which surveyed 500 global company executives

  14. RISK JOURNALS CATALOGUE 2015 www.risk.net/journal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RISK JOURNALS CATALOGUE 2015 www.risk.net/journal #12;Risk Journals deliver academically rigorous accurately. DISCOVER RISK JOURNALS HOW CAN RISK JOURNALS HELP YOU? www.risk.net/journal Risk Journals deliver strategies, commodities, infrastructures, derivatives, regulation and more. Each quarter Risk Journals

  15. Risk Assessment Sally Brown

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Sally

    or publicly owned treatment works) whose regulations and rule enforcement work to make sure that the risksRisk Assessment Sally Brown University of Washington Risk in our day to day routines One could argue that every thing that we do, every day is fraught with risks and that the safest approach is just

  16. Risk Assessment Fact Sheet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    Risk Assessment ® Fact Sheet U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Building Strong ® Buffalo District June 2012 Risk Assessment A risk assessment is performed for hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste sites and chemicals in the environment. Information from the risk assessment is used to determine whether action

  17. Policy Analysis Risk Assessment for Polycyclic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peters, Catherine A.

    Policy Analysis Risk Assessment for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon NAPLs Using Component Fractions not capture the variation in NAPL composition over time and as such do not consider changes in risk over time analysis of a lumped parameter approach. The fractions and priority pollutants are modeled as NAPL

  18. Risk communications & emergency planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baranski, S.C. [EQUINOX Environmental, Inc., Shushan, NY (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This talk outlines the interface between good risk communication and emergency planning. The major topics include the following: What is risk communication and how is it applied to emergency planning; crisis communication and the need to know and how to integrate crisis communication and risk communication; the face of the emergency: spokespersons, public information; The Media`s role in emergency Public information and risk communication; Developing the risk communication message; How to respond to continuing need for 24 hours communications; the EAS and Risk communication and Crisis communication; and finally where is risk communication heading and how it can help.

  19. Observations on the Optimality Tolerance in the CAISO 33% RPS Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yao, Y; Meyers, C; Schmidt, A; Smith, S; Streitz, F

    2011-09-22

    In 2008 Governor Schwarzenegger of California issued an executive order requiring that 33 percent of all electricity in the state in the year 2020 should come from renewable resources such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and small hydroelectric facilities. This 33% renewable portfolio standard (RPS) was further codified and signed into law by Governor Brown in 2011. To assess the market impacts of such a requirement, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) initiated a study to quantify the cost, risk, and timing of achieving a 33% RPS by 2020. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) was contracted to manage this study. The production simulation model used in this study was developed using the PLEXOS software package, which allows energy planners to optimize long-term system planning decisions under a wide variety of system constraints. In this note we describe our observations on varying the optimality tolerance in the CAISO 33% RPS model. In particular, we observe that changing the optimality tolerance from .05% to .5% leads to solutions over 5 times faster, on average, producing very similar solutions with a negligible difference in overall distance from optimality.

  20. Sufficient Stochastic Maximum Principle in a Regime-Switching Diffusion Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donnelly, Catherine, E-mail: C.Donnelly@hw.ac.uk [Heriot-Watt University, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    We prove a sufficient stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control of a regime-switching diffusion model. We show the connection to dynamic programming and we apply the result to a quadratic loss minimization problem, which can be used to solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem.