Sample records for modeling portfolio risk

  1. Tractable Robust Expected Utility and Risk Models for Portfolio ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mar 13, 2008 ... for the OCE risk measures and optimal portfolios are provided for ...... The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 12(2):291–313, 1977.

  2. Importance Sampling Methods for Estimating Convex Risk Measures in Portfolio Credit Risk Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grübel, Rudolf

    obligors. Owing to the complexity of realistic models, quantitative risk analysis typically requires Monte the shortcomings of the industry standard Value-at-Risk (VaR). Our analysis demonstrates that standard Monte risk analysis to realistic credit portfolio models. During the past decade an intense effort has been

  3. Portfolio Risk Modeling | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere I Geothermal PwerPerkins County, Nebraska: EnergyPiratiniEdwards, Wisconsin:Porter County,Porter-CologneRisk

  4. A credit risk model for agricultural loan portfolios under the new Basel Capital Accord

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Juno

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) provides added emphasis to the development of portfolio credit risk models. An important regulatory change in Basel II is the differentiated treatment in measuring capital requirements for the corporate...

  5. Bayesian Network Models of Portfolio Risk and Return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Catherine; Shenoy, Prakash P.

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . Finance models focus on the historical, quantitative relationships between economic variables. However, financial analysts usually combine historical data with qualitative information and judge how this information affects stock returns, market return... Rate (IR), Stock Market (SM), Oil Industry (OI), and Oil Company Stock Price (SP). At the quantitative level, we specify conditional probability distributions for each variable in the network. Each variable has a set of possible values called its state...

  6. Causal Network Methods for Integrated Project Portfolio Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Govan, Paul

    2014-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Corporate portfolio risk analysis is of primary concern for many organizations, as the success of strategic objectives greatly depends on an accurate risk assessment. Current risk analysis methods typically involve statistical models of risk...

  7. DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eichhorn, Andreas

    DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION VIA POLYHEDRAL RISK FUNCTIONALS the dynamic decision structure appropriately. In energy risk management, which is typically carried out ex, for integrating risk management into a stochastic optimization framework, risk has to be quantified in a definite

  8. Stochastic Optimization of Electricity Portfolios: Scenario Tree Modeling and Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eichhorn, Andreas

    of risk manage- ment into power production planning and trading based on stochastic programming. In energy and (physical) power trading. Moreover, risk management and stochastic optimization rest upon the same type of stochastic programming with regard to application in power management. In particular we discuss issues

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT IN REAL OPTIONS BASED PHARMACEUTICAL PORTFOLIO PLANNING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maranas, Costas

    RISK MANAGEMENT IN REAL OPTIONS BASED PHARMACEUTICAL PORTFOLIO PLANNING Michael J. Rogers, Anshuman valuations and a risk management analysis for balancing risk versus reward tradeoffs. The resulting valuation that minimize risk for a specified level of return, to begin Phase I clinical testing from a set of candidate

  10. Mean-Risk Optimization of Electricity Portfolios Using Multiperiod Polyhedral Risk Measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eichhorn, Andreas

    Mean-Risk Optimization of Electricity Portfolios Using Multiperiod Polyhedral Risk Measures Andreas-risk optimization of electricity portfolios containing electricity futures as well as several com- ponents to satisfy a stochastic electricity demand: electricity spot market, two different types of supply contracts

  11. Empirical Analysis of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in Portfolio Selection Problem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Liyuan 1988-

    2012-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Safety first criterion and mean-shortfall criterion both explore cases of assets allocation with downside risk. In this paper, I compare safety first portfolio selection problem and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization problem, considering risk...

  12. Microsoft PowerPoint -Risk_Portfolio_Manager(RPM)_overview_Under...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUnderSecDOE2011V4 Final 3-22-2011.ppt Read-Only Compatibili Microsoft PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUn...

  13. Mean-risk optimization of electricity portfolios Andreas Eichhorn 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eichhorn, Andreas

    refer to a wide range of literature dealing with power management in a hydro-thermal system and simultaneous optimization of power production and electricity trading, e.g. [7] and [10]. We suppose that eachMean-risk optimization of electricity portfolios Andreas Eichhorn 1 , Nicole Gr¨owe-Kuska1 , Andrea

  14. Understanding risk in a biopharmaceutical portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wagner, Alice Elizabeth, 1980-

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Investors have difficulty funding the life sciences because of the high risks involved in research and development and commercialization of new products. Risk in the biopharmaceutical industry is the result of scientific, ...

  15. Optimal portfolios using Linear Programming models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cpu

    2002-10-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 12, 2003 ... The problem. The portfolio manager Sigma wants to construct an optimal portfolio for a customer. .... It is easy to show that it is also possible ...

  16. RISK AVERSION AND TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIOS Guy MEUNIER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    in a technology with a positive expected return. If the technology with the lower expected cost is more risky than to produce with each technology. One technology has a lower expected marginal cost than the other, and costly technology to reduce its risk. The influence of correlation is emphasized. As the supply

  17. PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT OF SA WATER'S LARGE DAMS by David S. Bowles1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT OF SA WATER'S LARGE DAMS by David S. Bowles1 , Andrew M. Parsons2 , Loren R. Anderson3 and Terry F. Glover4 ABSTRACT This paper summarises the Portfolio Risk Assessment (PRA and an initial prioritisation of future investigations and possible risk reduction measures. The PRA comprised

  18. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain;Modeling Energy Taxes and Credits: The Genco's Choice · Each Genco has a portfolio of power plants · Each power plant can have different supply costs and transaction costs · Supply costs can reflect capital

  19. Resource Portfolio Model's Determination of Conservation's Cost-Effectiveness1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ,008 average megawatts of conservation8. The electricity price forecast used for this initial estimResource Portfolio Model's Determination of Conservation's Cost- Effectiveness1 The regional Resource Portfolio Model (RPM) finds large amounts of conservation cost effective. The cost of some

  20. FRA-MOWGS2MKT-049 Quantitative (Credit) Portfolio Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fulmek, Markus

    FRA-MOWGS2MKT-049 Quantitative (Credit) Portfolio Management Topics in Banking and Finance 24 Mai Concepts of (Credit) Portfolio Management 2. Definition of Risk Appetite 3. Portfolio Optimization Contents management models Passive Defensive Reactive Active Traditional banking Portfolio modelling & analysis Ex

  1. Essays on Incorporating Risk Modeling Techniques in Agriculture

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Larsen, Ryan A.

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    single period model, an asymmetric risk measure, conditional value at risk, and asymmetric dependence measure, copulas, are implemented into the portfolio optimization model. The efficient frontiers under both symmetric and asymmetric assumptions show...

  2. The electricity portfolio simulation model (EPSim) technical description.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drennen, Thomas E.; Klotz, Richard (Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY)

    2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy's (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.

  3. Optimization of Real Asset Portfolio using a Coherent Risk Measure ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2010-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    techniques evolved to the use of enterprise portfolio management, very common in the energy ... Petrobras refineries for fuel and inputs in their units (30%), the demand of local .... the stochastic linear program with uncertain right hand side: ? ... since it would correspond to start building a new pipeline only after the gas de-.

  4. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain-term solution (e.g.,are long-term solution (e.g., solar power and wind power (solar power and wind power Heavy user of fossil fuels:Heavy user of fossil fuels: Electric power industryElectric power industry

  5. Risk assessment methodology applied to counter IED research & development portfolio prioritization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; O' Brien, David A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In an effort to protect the United States from the ever increasing threat of domestic terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has significantly increased research activities to counter the terrorist use of explosives. More over, DHS S&T has established a robust Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Program to Deter, Predict, Detect, Defeat, and Mitigate this imminent threat to the Homeland. The DHS S&T portfolio is complicated and changing. In order to provide the ''best answer'' for the available resources, DHS S&T would like some ''risk based'' process for making funding decisions. There is a definite need for a methodology to compare very different types of technologies on a common basis. A methodology was developed that allows users to evaluate a new ''quad chart'' and rank it, compared to all other quad charts across S&T divisions. It couples a logic model with an evidential reasoning model using an Excel spreadsheet containing weights of the subjective merits of different technologies. The methodology produces an Excel spreadsheet containing the aggregate rankings of the different technologies. It uses Extensible Logic Modeling (ELM) for logic models combined with LANL software called INFTree for evidential reasoning.

  6. The CouncilThe Council''s Regionals Regional Portfolio ModelPortfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Summer Winter Coal Operating CostsOperating Costs Model Overview #12;Page 3 5 Sources of Uncertainty Power Plan All of those to the left, except, perhaps, aluminum price Power plant construction costs, and labor costs Retirement Risk Carrying the forward-going fixed cost of an unused plant Undervaluing

  7. Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2003-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    protect a power purchase portfolio against market risks. Facing this question, a multicriterial linear stochastic optimisation model has been developed. It is based

  8. Parallel Simulations for Analysing Portfolios of Catastrophic Event Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rau-Chaplin, Andrew

    . Performance analysis of the algorithm indicates that GPUs offer an alternative HPC solution for aggregate risk analysis that is cost effective. The optimised algorithm on the GPU performs a 1 million trial aggregate], nuclear power plants [9], radioactive waste disposal [10] and terrorism [11]. In many of these areas

  9. R i l P tf li M d lRegional Portfolio Model Software Redevelopment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R i l P tf li M d lRegional Portfolio Model Software Redevelopment Request for Proposals #12;II. Services Desired by the CouncilII. Services Desired by the Council Software redevelopment of the Council's Regional Software redevelopment of the Council s Regional Portfolio Model (RPM) Redeveloped

  10. Proceedings of the 1998 USCOLD Annual Lecture, Buffalo, New York. August 1998 PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    ASSESSMENT: A TOOL FOR DAM SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT David S. Bowles1 , Loren R. Anderson2 , Terry F. Glover3 on to provide the basis for an effective and efficient program for managing and reducing dam safety risksProceedings of the 1998 USCOLD Annual Lecture, Buffalo, New York. August 1998 PORTFOLIO RISK

  11. FROM BUSINESS MODEL TO BUSINESS MODEL PORTFOLIO IN THE EUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    FROM BUSINESS MODEL TO BUSINESS MODEL PORTFOLIO IN THE EUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY 1 GAEL and of the anticipations of consumers' needs, the business model approach complements corporate and business strategy approaches. Firms combine several business models simultaneously to deliver value to different markets

  12. Modeling the Impact of Product Portfolio on the Economic and Environmental Performance of Recycling Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dahmus, Jeffrey B.

    hrough the development of a general model of electronics recycling systems, the effect of product portfolio choices on economic and environmental system performance is explored. The general model encompasses the three main ...

  13. Downside Risk Constraints and Currency Hedging in International Portfolios: the Asian and Late-2000 Crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Ying

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    MV is the traditional method to treat international portfolio selection problems, which bases its theory on the assumption of Normal Distribution. However, during economy recession the portfolio return turns out to be a fat tail distribution...

  14. Complexity cost quantification and modeling for strategic portfolio management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Jan, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This project explores portfolio management and planning through effectively reducing complexity within operations. We apply this to a major healthcare company (referred to as Company X). The anticipated launch of new ...

  15. Modeling Risks in Infrastructure Asset Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seyedolshohadaie, Seyed Reza

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    in privatizing and operational risks in maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure facilities. To this end, a valuation procedure for valuing large-scale risky projects is proposed. This valuation approach is based on mean-risk portfolio optimization...

  16. Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Zaffaroni, P

    ? ?) of the various tangency portfolio weights to be considered below, we further require the following assumption: Assumption 4 (mixed limit conditions) At any given point in time t as N ?? (B? e?¯?)?H?1t (B? e?¯?) N ?p At > 0, (10) B?H?1t H?1t B N ?p Ct ? 0, (11) 7... ?1 ? er0,t?1) ??1t?1(µt?1 ? er0,t?1). (43) Theorem 3 (minimum variance portfolio) 21 (i) Let w?mvit = N?1 (µ? ? r0t) et e ? iH?1t {(?t ? er0t) + [at(?t ? er0t)?¯? ? (ct ? atr0t)B]A?1t ?¯ } . (44) When conditions (7), (10), (11), (12), (13), (14), (16...

  17. An estimation-free, robust CVaR portfolio allocation model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 27, 2007 ... of these models have produced great theoretical impact, their practical ... the riskfree interest rate, and the asset returns, for dynamic portfolio models (cf. [12]). ...... Therefore, all the analysis and results presented through out the paper will ... [8] J. ?Cerbáková, Worst-case Var and CVaR, Operations Research ...

  18. ACHIEVING CALIFORNIA'S 33 PERCENT RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    affect estimated overall costs and risks associated with alternate portfolios of generating resources........................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 2: Using the Capital asset pricing model approach to estimate the market price referent ...... system costs and, importantly, examine cost/risk interrelationships associated with this mandate

  19. Worst-Case Value-at-Risk of Non-Linear Portfolios - Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-06-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Jun 21, 2012 ... level ? is defined as the (1 ? ?)-percentile of the portfolio loss distribution, where ? is typically chosen as 1% or 5%. Put differently, VaR?(w) is ...

  20. Modeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes Electric Power Supply Chain Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    than a third arises from generating electricity. With the accumulating evidence of global warming, any affect the equilibrium electric power supply chain network production outputs, the transactions betweenModeling Generator Power Plant Portfolios and Pollution Taxes in Electric Power Supply Chain

  1. Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rüschendorf, Ludger

    of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, our study applies extreme value have demonstrated that the technical progress of financial markets and their globalization have also, and this bias can have a crucial effect on the investment performance. To some extent, these technical diffi

  2. Entrepreneurial Finance and Non-diversifiable Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Hui

    We develop a dynamic incomplete-markets model of entrepreneurial firms, and demonstrate the implications of nondiversifiable risks for entrepreneurs' interdependent consumption, portfolio allocation, financing, investment, ...

  3. Text Classification for Intelligent Portfolio Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , earnings summaries, and Beta value (risk) associated with the individual holdings in their stock portfolioText Classification for Intelligent Portfolio Management Young-Woo Seo Joseph Giampapa Katia Sycara management, software agents that eval- uate the risks associated with the individual companies of a portfolio

  4. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langner, R.; Hendron, B.; Bonnema, E.

    2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

  5. Time Consistent Recursive Risk Measures Under Regime Switching ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-02-04T23:59:59.000Z

    The proper description of dynamic information correlation among individual ... tic security market and investment risk in multi-stage portfolio selection models ...

  6. Multi-period robust risk measures and portfolio selection models ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-05-08T23:59:59.000Z

    P. R. China, zchen@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, liu.jia@stu.xjtu.edu.cn .... problem incorporating transaction costs, we show that they can be equivalently transformed into.

  7. January 2006 L-1 Appendix L: The Portfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of uncertainties, like load and hydro generation, are to some extent separable from the rest of the model. (This the characteristics and treatment of independent power producers (IPPs). 1 Chapter 6 defines the terms "plan," "future® Monte Carlo games are prepared and how the OptQuestTM stochastic optimization application is configured

  8. Growth-optimal investments and numeraire portfolios under transaction costs: An analysis based on the von Neumann-Gale model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bahsoun, Wael; Taksar, Michael I

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The aim of this work is to extend the capital growth theory developed by Kelly, Breiman, Cover and others to asset market models with transaction costs. We define a natural generalization of the notion of a numeraire portfolio proposed by Long and show how such portfolios can be used for constructing growth-optimal investment strategies. The analysis is based on the classical von Neumann-Gale model of economic dynamics, a stochastic version of which we use as a framework for the modelling of financial markets with frictions.

  9. Essays on Bank Optimal Portfolio Choice under Liquidity Constraint

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Eul Jin

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    portfolio choices under liquidity constraints. Our theory predicts that liquidation plays an important role in a bank's portfolio model. Even though liquidation is an off-equilibrium phenomenon, banks can have rich loan portfolios due to the possibility...

  10. Tactical Portfolio Construction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yue

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Chapter 2 Portfolio Construction Data source In thisTactical Portfolio Construction A thesis submitted inTHESIS Tactical Portfolio Construction by Yue Chen Master of

  11. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix J: The Regional Portfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................................... 32 Quantitative Risk Analysis

  12. Essays on the Economics of Environmental Issues: The Environmental Kuznets Curve to Optimal Energy Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meininger, Aaron G.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    frontiers in a cost- risk nexus of energy technologies.the true cost risks involved in the energy portfolio. Usingthe true cost risks involved in the energy portfolio. Using

  13. Optimization of a petroleum producing assets portfolio: development of an advanced computer model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aibassov, Gizatulla

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Portfolios of contemporary integrated petroleum companies consist of a few dozen Exploration and Production (E&P) projects that are usually spread all over the world. Therefore, it is important not only to manage individual projects by themselves...

  14. Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Planning Electricity Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Planning Electricity Portfolios 2009/11/30­12/01 István Maros Electricity Portfolio #12;Introduction Computational Efficiency Electricity Portfolio Outline 1 Introduction 2 Computational Efficiency 3 Electricity Portfolio Approximate

  15. A Micro-foundations Model of Dollarization with Network Externalities and Portfolio Choice: The

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : The Case of Bolivia¤ John T. Cuddington, Rose Mary R. Garcia, and Daniel M. Westbrook Georgetown University-in°ationary Bolivia and Peru to be well explained by standard `portfolio balance' variables. The primary aim patterns in Bolivia. ¤ This paper closely resembles Chapter 5 of Rose Mary Garcia's Ph.D. dissertation

  16. Consistency of robust optimization with application to portfolio ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Megiddo

    2010-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

    very general portfolio and risk constraints. Further, consistency will also carry ...... Quantitative Analysis, 42(3):621–656, 2007. [21] A. Kirsch. An Introduction to ...

  17. Optimization Online - Multilevel Optimization Modeling for Risk ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jonathan Eckstein

    2014-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Aug 24, 2014 ... Abstract: Coherent risk measures have become a popular tool for incorporating risk aversion into stochastic optimization models. For dynamic ...

  18. Conditional risk in volatility models Risk parameter in volatility models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeanjean, Louis

    are of the form t = tt where (t) is iid, t > 0, t and t are independent. For GARCH-type (Generalized (GARCH), 2009) for an impressive list of more than one hundred GARCH-type models. Francq, Zakoian Risk Examples Standard GARCH(p,q) (Engle (82), Bollerslev (86)): 2 t = 0 + q i=1 0i 2 t-i + p j=1 0j2 t

  19. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  20. Systems Portfolio Guide A Resource For Creating Your Systems Portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amin, S. Massoud

    Systems Portfolio Guide A Resource For Creating Your Systems Portfolio Academic Quality Improvement Program Contents The Systems Portfolio........................................................................................................... 9 Using the Systems Portfolio to document the Criteria for Accreditation

  1. Portfolio Manager Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Portfolio Manager 3 | TAP Webcast eere.energy.gov What is Portfolio Manager? Free, web-based tool for benchmarking existing buildings Measure and track the energy use of...

  2. Need for an Integrated Risk Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    is passed to decision makers * Model is needed that (eventually) will integrate seismic risk with other initiators * Scenario approach definition * R

  3. Automatic Trading Agent. RMT based Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Selection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snarska, M; Snarska, Malgorzata; Krzych, Jakub

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, which arises from our lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this tool is not known and is not widely used among investors on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main reason for abandoning this method is a high level of complexity and immense calculations. The aim of this paper is to introduce an automatic decision - making system, which allows a single investor to use such complex methods of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The key tool in MPT is an analysis of an empirical covariance matrix. This matrix, obtained from historical data is biased by such a high amount of statistical uncertainty, that it can be seen as random. By bringing into practice the ideas of Random Matrix Theory (RMT), the noise is removed or significantly reduced, so the future risk and return are b...

  4. A Formal Model of Auditor Independence Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turner, Jerry L.; Mock, Theodore J.; Srivastava, Rajendra P.

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Although the published literature on auditor independence is extensive, an accepted comprehensive theory, framework or model of auditor independence risk does not exist. This paper develops a formal model of auditor ...

  5. Quantitative Easing: A Model-Free Investigation of the Portfolio Balance Channel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    has turned to unconventional methods in an attempt to stimulate economic growth and raise employment, unconventional monetary policy, zero lower bound, risk premium. The views expressed her are the author's and do. As the supply of bank reserves increased, the effective federal funds rate declined significantly falling

  6. Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In 2007, Minnesota legislation modified the state's existing non-mandated renewable energy objective, creating a mandatory renewable portfolio standard (RPS) called the Renewable Energy Standard ...

  7. Columbia- Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In November 2004, voters in Columbia, Missouri approved a proposal to adopt a local renewables portfolio standard (RPS).* The initiative requires the city's municipal utility, Columbia Water and...

  8. Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's original Renewable Resource Portfolio Requirement was passed as part of the state's 1997 electric-utility restructuring law. In 1999, Maine's Public Utility Commission (PUC) adopted rules...

  9. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Univ. of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  10. Essays in asset pricing and portfolio choice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illeditsch, Philipp Karl

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    In the ?rst essay, I decompose in?ation risk into (i) a part that is correlated with real returns on the market portfolio and factors that determine investor’s preferences and investment opportunities and (ii) a residual part. I show that only...

  11. Annual Report: EPAct Complementary Program's Ultra-Deepwater R&D Portfolio and Unconventional Resources R&D Portfolio (30 September 2012)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,; Rose, Kelly [NETL] [NETL; Hakala, Alexandra [NETL] [NETL; Guthrie, George [NETL] [NETL

    2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report summarizes FY13 research activities performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Office of Research and Development (ORD), along with its partners in the Regional University Alliance (RUA) to fulfill research needs under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) Section 999?s Complementary Program. Title IX, Subtitle J, Section 999A(d) of EPAct 2005 authorizes $50 million per year of federal oil and gas royalties, rents and bonus payments for an oil and natural gas research and development effort, the Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum Resources Research Program. Section 999 further prescribes four program elements for the effort, one of which is the Complementary Research Program that is to be performed by NETL. This document lays out the plan for the research portfolio for the Complementary Research Program, with an emphasis on the 2013 funding. The Complementary Program consists of two research portfolios focused on domestic resources: (1) the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio (UDW) (focused on hydrocarbons in reservoirs in extreme environments) and (2) the Unconventional Resources Portfolio (UCR) (focused on hydrocarbons in shale reservoirs). These two portfolios address the science base that enables these domestic resources to be produced responsibly, informing both regulators and operators. NETL is relying on a core Department of Energy-National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) competency in engineered-natural systems to develop this science base, allowing leveraging of decades of investment. NETL?s Complementary Research Program research portfolios support the development of unbiased research and information for policymakers and the public, performing rapid predictions of possible outcomes associated with unexpected events, and carrying out quantitative assessments for energy policy stakeholders that accurately integrate the risks of safety and environmental impacts. The objective of this body of work is to build the scientific understanding and assessment tools necessary to develop the confidence that key domestic oil and gas resources can be produced safely and in an environmentally sustainable way. For the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with exploration and production in extreme offshore environments. This includes: (1) using experimental studies to improve understanding of key parameters (e.g., properties and behavior of materials) tied to loss-of-control events in deepwater settings, (2) compiling data on spatial variability for key properties used to characterize and simulate the natural and engineered components involved in extreme offshore settings, and (3) utilizing findings from (1) and (2) in conjunction with integrated assessment models to model worst-case scenarios, as well as assessments of most likely scenarios relative to potential risks associated with flow assurance and loss of control. This portfolio and approach is responsive to key Federal-scale initiatives including the Ocean Energy Safety Advisory Committee (OESC). In particular, the findings and recommendations of the OESC?s Spill Prevention Subcommittee are addressed by aspects of the Complementary Program research. The Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio is also aligned with some of the goals of the United States- Department of the Interior (US-DOI) led Alaska Interagency Working Group (AIWG) which brings together state, federal, and tribal government personnel in relation to energy-related issues and needs in the Alaskan Arctic. For the Unconventional Fossil Resources Portfolio, the general objective is to develop a sufficient scientific base for predicting and quantifying potential risks associated with the oil/gas resources in shale reservoirs that require hydraulic fracturing and/or other engineering measures to produce. The major areas of focus include: (1) improving predictions of fugitive methane and greenhouse gas emissions, (2) pr

  12. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model - DOE Directives, Delegations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model by Website Administrator The Enterprise Risk Management Model is a new standardized framework that the Department will be using to develop,...

  13. A credit risk management model for a portfolio of low-income consumer loans in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiménez Montesinos, Jorge Alberto

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Low-income consumer lending (LICL) in Latin America has experienced a boom in recent years. This has attracted the interest of a large number of financial players eager to capture a portion in this still under-banked ...

  14. A Coupled System of Integrodifferential Equations Arising in Liquidity Risk Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pham, Huyen, E-mail: pham@math.jussieu.fr; Tankov, Peter [Universites Paris 6-Paris 7, Laboratoire de Probabilites et Modeles Aleatoires, CNRS, UMR 7599 (France)], E-mail: tankov@math.jussieu.fr

    2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the mathematical aspects of the portfolio/consumption choice problem in a market model with liquidity risk introduced in (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear). In this model, the investor can trade and observe stock prices only at exogenous Poisson arrival times. He may also consume continuously from his cash holdings, and his goal is to maximize his expected utility from consumption. This is a mixed discrete/continuous time stochastic control problem, nonstandard in the literature. We show how the dynamic programming principle leads to a coupled system of Integro-Differential Equations (IDE), and we prove an analytic characterization of this control problem by adapting the concept of viscosity solutions. This coupled system of IDE may be numerically solved by a decoupling algorithm, and this is the topic of a companion paper (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear)

  15. Frankie Phua Executive Director and Head of Credit & Country Risk Management Division

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaudhuri, Sanjay

    Frankie Phua Executive Director and Head of Credit & Country Risk Management Division UOB Frankie Phua is the Executive Director and the Global Head of the Credit & Country Risk Management Division (PD, LGD and EAD), economic capital modelling, credit portfolio risk management, counterparty credit

  16. Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In January 2005, the District of Columbia Council enacted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that applies to all retail electricity sales in the District. In October 2008 the RPS was amended by...

  17. Clean Energy Portfolio Goal

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In May 2011, Indiana enacted SB 251, creating the Clean Energy Portfolio Standard (CPS). The program sets a voluntary goal of 10% clean energy by 2025, based on the amount of electricity supplied...

  18. Causal Modeling with Applications to the Foreign Exchange Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deaton, Brian D.

    2013-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

    , Japanese yen, and United States dollar). This information is used in portfolio management to improve risk management, to visualize the causal connections between currencies, and enhance the forecasting ability of time series models. In the first section, a...

  19. Quadrennial Technology Review Workshop Portfolios | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Review Workshop Portfolios Quadrennial Technology Review Workshop Portfolios Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review Building & Industrial Efficiency Workshop...

  20. The Paradoxes of Military Risk Assessment: Will the Enterprise Risk Assessment Model, Composite Risk Management and Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Chris

    to assess the nation's military preparedness. However, risk management is not a panacea for the problemsThe Paradoxes of Military Risk Assessment: Will the Enterprise Risk Assessment Model, Composite Risk Management and Associated Techniques Provide the Predicted Benefits? Chris. W. Johnson, Glasgow

  1. Use of Solar and Wind as a Physical Hedge against Price Variability within a Generation Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jenkin, T.; Diakov, V.; Drury, E.; Bush, B.; Denholm, P.; Milford, J.; Arent, D.; Margolis, R.; Byrne, R.

    2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study provides a framework to explore the potential use and incremental value of small- to large-scale penetration of solar and wind technologies as a physical hedge against the risk and uncertainty of electricity cost on multi-year to multi-decade timescales. Earlier studies characterizing the impacts of adding renewable energy (RE) to portfolios of electricity generators often used a levelized cost of energy or simplified net cash flow approach. In this study, we expand on previous work by demonstrating the use of an 8760 hourly production cost model (PLEXOS) to analyze the incremental impact of solar and wind penetration under a wide range of penetration scenarios for a region in the Western U.S. We do not attempt to 'optimize' the portfolio in any of these cases. Rather we consider different RE penetration scenarios, that might for example result from the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to explore the dynamics, risk mitigation characteristics and incremental value that RE might add to the system. We also compare the use of RE to alternative mechanisms, such as the use of financial or physical supply contracts to mitigate risk and uncertainty, including consideration of their effectiveness and availability over a variety of timeframes.

  2. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate Portfolio Manager; add a property and enter details...

  3. Robust Growth-Optimal Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Modern portfolio theory based ...... Optimal gambling systems for favourable games. ... International Symposium on Computer Aided Control Systems Design.

  4. ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ITP Nanomanufacturing: Nanomanufacturing Portfolio: Manufacturing Processes and Applications to Accelerate Commercial Use of Nanomaterials, January 2011 ITP Nanomanufacturing:...

  5. Quantitative Models for Operational Risk: Extremes, Dependence and Aggregation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Embrechts, Paul

    risk data lend themselves easily to a full quantitative analysis. For example, legal risk defiesQuantitative Models for Operational Risk: Extremes, Dependence and Aggregation V. Chavez, the financial industry is looking for qualitative approaches to and quantitative models for operational risk

  6. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  7. A MEAN-VARIANCE PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION OF CALIFORNIA'S

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that have lower expected costs, less cost risk, and substantially reduced CO2 emissions and energy import, renewable energy, electricity planning, fuel prices, energy risks #12;TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY'S 33 PERCENT RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD GOAL Prepared For: California Energy Commission Prepared By

  8. Modelling maintenance for components under competing risk Helge Langseth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langseth, Helge

    preventively maintained. The preventive maintenance (PM) is performed periodically with some period , but PMModelling maintenance for components under competing risk Helge Langseth Norwegian University the mathematical modelling of imperfect maintenance of a system under competing risk. The model we propose

  9. An Optimal Path Model for the Risk-Averse Traveler

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leilei Zhang

    2014-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Jun 11, 2014 ... The model is suitable for a risk-averse traveler, who prefers a path with ... Citation

  10. Finance 360 Section 001 (11312) Applied Portfolio Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Young, Paul Thomas

    valuation methods portfolio theory equity, debt, derivatives and real asset trading portfolio creation

  11. Applying stochastic programming models in financial risk management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xi

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research studies two modelling techniques that help seek optimal strategies in financial risk management. Both are based on the stochastic programming methodology. The first technique is concerned with market risk ...

  12. Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arhonditsis, George B.

    Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models G. Arhonditsis for assessing the risk of eutrophication in marine coastal embayments. The procedure followed of exogenous nutrient loading. Ã? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Eutrophication; Coastal

  13. Irregularly Spaced Intraday Value at Risk (ISIVaR) Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ) quanti...es market risk at an intraday time horizon, using Normal GARCH, Student GARCH, Risk- known as the Ultra-High-Frequency GARCH (UHF-GARCH) model of Engle (2000)- such that unequally spaced Va

  14. Modelling risk and risking models: the diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Donovan, Amy R.; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

    (Stirling, 151 2008). For Massey, space is dynamic: it must be thought of in relation to time. It resists 152 enclosure in a model. In considering geographical models in light of this, O’Sullivan (2004) 153 suggests that “it is vital that modelling... , 215 noting the presence of social, psychological and geographical uncertainties (see also Stirling, 216 2007, 2008; Wynne, 1992; Jasanoff, 2004, 2005). Understanding the complex ways in which 217 uncertainty is generated is critical in appreciating...

  15. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Portfolio Standard Provider Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission Pennsylvania's Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS), created by S.B. 1030 on November 30, 2004,...

  16. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Documents & Publications Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 8 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in...

  17. Precautionary Measures for Credit Risk Management in Jump Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Egami, Masahiko

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sustaining efficiency and stability by properly controlling the equity to asset ratio is one of the most important and difficult challenges in bank management. Due to unexpected and abrupt decline of asset values, a bank must closely monitor its net worth as well as market conditions, and one of its important concerns is when to raise more capital so as not to violate capital adequacy requirements. In this paper, we model the tradeoff between avoiding costs of delay and premature capital raising, and solve the corresponding optimal stopping problem. In order to model defaults in a bank's loan/credit business portfolios, we represent its net worth by Levy processes, and solve explicitly for the double exponential jump diffusion process and for a general spectrally negative Levy process.

  18. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  19. Asset-Liability Management Modelling with Risk Control by ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xi Yang

    2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Jan 15, 2009 ... Asset-Liability Management Modelling with Risk Control by Stochastic Dominance. Xi Yang (X.Yang ***at*** ed.ac.uk) Jacek Gondzio ...

  20. assessment models risk: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    practice in the use of spreadsheets in business. Butler, Raymond J 2008-01-01 13 Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models...

  1. analysis risk models: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of the analysis Paris-Sud XI, Universit de 6 IT Security Risk Analysis based on Business Process Models enhanced with Security Requirements Computer Technologies and...

  2. Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tunc, Sait

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations ca...

  3. Research Portfolio Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Scienceand Requirements RecentlyElectronic Public Reading Room Electronic PublicResearch Portfolio

  4. Immersion Property and Credit Risk Modelling Monique Jeanblanc

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeanblanc, Monique

    Immersion Property and Credit Risk Modelling Monique Jeanblanc , Yann Le Cam , , Universit´e d time. This theorem emphasizes the major role played by initial times in credit modelling. A corollary

  5. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Tackling Challenges in...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    & Publications Download the SunShot Initiative 2014 Portfolio 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Photovoltaics 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Systems Integration...

  6. Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts Building a diversified project portfolio...

  7. Stochastic Methods in Reliability and Risk Management This volume focuses on stochastic methods developed for reliability modeling and risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Haijun

    such as quantitative risk management, decision analysis under uncertainty, and their applications in areas methods developed for reliability modeling and risk analysis. Reliability theory and risk analysis have. This special volume highlights this convergence of reliability modeling and risk analysis, that forms the core

  8. Consistency of robust portfolio estimators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2006-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 6, 2006 ... The effect was made visible by examining stability of portfolio .... where W(Z, q) denotes the Wishart distribution with scale matrix Z ? Rn×n.

  9. Resource portfolio management: bundling process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Worthington, William John

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Managers within firms seek to align their portfolio of capabilities to best respond to their competitive environment. Processes used by firms to acquire resources, bundle those resources into capabilities, and then leverage those capabilities...

  10. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  11. Guam- Renewable Energy Portfolio Goal

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Guam Bill 166, enacted in March 2008, established a renewable energy portfolio goal of 25% renewable energy by 2035.* Under this law, each utility that sells electricity for consumption on Guam...

  12. Fragility of CVaR in portfolio optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lim, A.E.B.; Shanthikumar, J.G.; Vahn, G.-Y.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of CVar in portfolio optimization A.E.B. Lim, UC Berkeleyof CVaR in portfolio optimization A . E . B . Lim* J.G.data-driven portfolio optimization. We show that portfolios

  13. Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    renewable sources such as wind, solar, and biomass. I use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelCombining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy: A General Equilibrium, Technology and Policy Program #12;#12;3 Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy

  14. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reinert, Joshua M

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

  15. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  16. ENERGY STAR Webinar: Portfolio Manager 101

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Join us as we introduce and demonstrate the core functionality of EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool. Attendees will learn how to: navigate the new Portfolio Manager; add a property and...

  17. Some Problems in Stochastic Portfolio Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Xiaobo

    2007-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider some problems in the stochastic portfolio theory of equity markets. In the first part, we maximize the expected terminal value of a portfolio of equities. The optimal investment problem is then solved by the stochastic control approach...

  18. Optimization Online - Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paula Rocha

    2010-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Jun 4, 2010 ... Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in Deregulated Electricity Markets Using Linear Decision Rules. Paula Rocha ...

  19. Computational Exploration of Investor Utilities Underlying a Portfolio Insurance Strategy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Khoshnevisan; Florentin Smarandache; Sukanto Bhattacharya

    2002-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we take a look at a simple portfolio insurance strategy using a protective put and computationally derive the investor's governing utility structures underlying such a strategy under alternative market scenarios. Investor utility is deemed to increase with an increase in the excess equity generated by the portfolio insurance strategy over a simple investment strategy without any insurance. Three alternative market scenarios (probability spaces) have been explored -- 'Down', 'Neutral' and 'Up', categorized according to whether the price of the underlying security is most likely to go down, stay unchanged or go up. The methodology used is computational, primarily based on simulation and numerical extrapolation. The Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion has been used to determine how the investors react towards risk under the different scenarios.

  20. Risk prediction models for melanoma: A systematic review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Usher-Smith, Juliet A.; Emery, Jon; Kassianos, Angelos P.; Walter, Fiona M.

    2014-06-03T23:59:59.000Z

    of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. 2 General Practice and Primary Care Academic Centre, University of Melbourne, Australia. 3 School of Primary, Aboriginal and Rural Health Care, University of Western Australia, Australia. Running title: Risk prediction models... :1000129. 35. English, DR, Armstrong, BK. Identifying people at high risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma: Results from a case-control study in Western Australia. Br. Med. J. (Clin. Res. Ed). 1988; 296: 1285–1288. 36. Amir, E, Freedman, OC, Seruga...

  1. ForestGALES A PC-based wind risk model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    be needed to uproot or break the tree? 3.1 What wind speed would create the force required to damageForestGALES A PC-based wind risk model for British Forests User's Guide Version 2.0 June 2004 Barry by strong winds in Britain 1.1 Historical context ­ Previous predictive windthrow model 1.1 What does Forest

  2. Portfolio Selection under Model Uncertainty:

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Roy H. Kwon ..... in the set Q. In such cases, it is reasonable to treat the measure P as a reference ... and the parameter k helps to adjust the level of penalty.

  3. Regional Portfolio Model Redevelopment Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Lost Opportunity Conservation 4. CO2 emission tracking 5. Dispatch of existing and new resources 6 futures) 11©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. E N E R G Y ­ Equilibrium electricity prices over time (able

  4. About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis. Philip Bertram1, Philipp Sibbertsen and Gerhard Stahl

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weber, Stefan

    About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis. Philip Bertram1 the idea of model risk in the environment of internal model building. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distri- bution and model risk in functional form

  5. Model-based Safety Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lindsay, Peter

    development life-cycle, in order to identify critical system requirements, such as safety requirements their effectiveness, early in the system development life-cycle, on models derived directly from natural language of functional requirements of arbitrary detail ­ whether it is very early in the life-cycle when functions

  6. Selling an Energy Efficiency Loan Portfolio in Oregon: Resale of the Craft3 loan portfolio to Self-Help Credit Union

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Peter; Borgeson, Merrian; Kramer, Chris; Zimring, Mark; Goldman, Charles

    2014-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Under the Clean Energy Works (CEW) program, Craft3 developed a loan product that widened access to financing for homeowners, offered long term funding, and collected repayments through the customer?s utility bill. The program?s success led Craft3 to pursue the sale of the loan portfolio to both mitigate its own risks and replenish funds for lending. This sale breaks new ground for energy efficiency finance and is notable as it was completed even with many novel program design elements. It replenished Craft3?s program capital and uncovered some valuable lessons that may facilitate future transactions. However, the lack of data history and the unproven nature of the loan portfolio meant that Craft3 had to limit the risk of losses to Self-Help, the purchaser of the portfolio. It remains to be seen whether this experience will pave the way for more sales of on-bill energy efficiency loan portfolios. This case study illustrates how certain program design decisions can sometimes both facilitate programmatic objectives and possibly present challenges for the sale of a portfolio of energy efficiency loans.

  7. Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, Jennifer

    Many efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions combine a cap-and-trade system with other measures such as a renewable portfolio standard. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the MIT Emissions ...

  8. MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT Household Model of Chagas Disease Vectors (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vermont, University of

    MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT Household Model of Chagas Disease Vectors (Hemiptera vectors (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) of the causative parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida bitten by infected insect vectors. There are 130 species in the subfamily Triatominae (Hemiptera

  9. Risk Modelling the Transition of SCADA System to IPv6

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Risk Modelling the Transition of SCADA System to IPv6 Suriadi Suriadi, Alan Tickle, Ejaz Ahmed.morarji@qut.edu.au Abstract. SCADA is one of a set of manufacturing-and-control systems that are used to monitor and control6 protocol and inevitably this change will affect SCADA systems. However IPv6 introduces its own set

  10. Summer Academy 2012 Advanced Stochastic Methods to Model Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pfeifer, Holger

    Summer Academy 2012 Advanced Stochastic Methods to Model Risk PERSONAL INFORMATION Name Last name for participation in the summer academy I would like to book via the organizers an accommodation from 09 September presumably 452 . participation in the summer academy and a DAAD scholarship for participation If I am

  11. Optimization Models in Finance (26:711:564) Andrzej Ruszczynski

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    Optimization Models in Finance (26:711:564) Andrzej Ruszczynski Objectives The objective of this course is to introduce models and computational methods for static and dynamic optimization problems occurring in finance. Special attention will be devoted to portfolio optimization and to risk management

  12. Modeling of Supply Chain Risk Under Disruptions with Performance Measurement and Robustness Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    . The model formulation captures supply- side risk as well as demand-side risk, along with uncertainty supply-side disruption risks, transportation and other cost risks, and demand-side uncertainty within, the focus of research has been on "demand-side" risk, which is related to fluctuations in the demand

  13. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Coles, Garill A.; Shoemaker, Steven V.

    2012-06-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Modernization of nuclear power operations control systems, in particular the move to digital control systems, creates an opportunity to modernize existing legacy infrastructure and extend plant life. We describe here decision support tools that allow the assessment of different facets of risk and support the optimization of available resources to reduce risk as plants are upgraded and maintained. This methodology could become an integrated part of the design review process and a part of the operations management systems. The methodology can be applied to the design of new reactors such as small nuclear reactors (SMR), and be helpful in assessing the risks of different configurations of the reactors. Our tool provides a low cost evaluation of alternative configurations and provides an expanded safety analysis by considering scenarios while early in the implementation cycle where cost impacts can be minimized. The effects of failures can be modeled and thoroughly vetted to understand their potential impact on risk. The process and tools presented here allow for an integrated assessment of risk by supporting traditional defense in depth approaches while taking into consideration the insertion of new digital instrument and control systems.

  14. Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs: Heuristics ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Aug 10, 2010 ... Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction. Costs: Heuristics and Dual Bounds. David B. Brown and James E. Smith?. Fuqua School of ...

  15. Robust Portfolio Optimization with Derivative Insurance Guarantees

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2009-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Jan 13, 2009 ... a portfolio consisting of a single stock and a put option by controlling ..... in the returns whilst taking into consideration that the centroid µ of ?+.

  16. Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 2, 2012 ... security i is described by a random variable Ri, whose average can be computed ..... More information on these security sectors (or portfolios of ...

  17. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 9 grandchallengesportfoliopg9.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  18. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 6 grandchallengesportfoliopg6.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  19. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    8 Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011 - pg 8 grandchallengesportfoliopg8.pdf More Documents & Publications Grand...

  20. A Mathematical Programming Model for Optimal Layout Considering Quantitative Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    A Mathematical Programming Model for Optimal Layout Considering Quantitative Risk Analysis Nancy of plant layout with safety considerations. The model considers a quantitative risk analysis to take safety aims at providing a more elaborate analysis of risk sources by considering a complete quantitative risk

  1. 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Concentrating Solar Power 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book: Concentrating Solar Power The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals...

  2. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VTO Analysis Portfolio Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: VTO Analysis Portfolio Presentation given by U.S. Department of Energy at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells...

  3. Interpretive electronic music systems: a portfolio of compositions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rawlinson, Julian Dean

    2011-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    A portfolio of electronic music compositions employing adaptable controllers, graphic notation, and custom software performance environments. The portfolio is comprised of scores, recordings, and supporting software and ...

  4. ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility Benchmarking Programs: Effectiveness as a Conduit to Utility Energy Efficiency Programs ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager and Utility...

  5. Model Selection for the Competing-Risks Model With and Without Masking

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Chun Man "Thomas"

    Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877 (tlee@stat.colostate.edu) The competing-risks model is useful in settings in which individuals (or units) may die (or fail) because for competing-risks data with and without masking involves the specification of cause-specific hazard rates

  6. Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States); Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk [City University of Hong Kong, Department of Mathematics (Hong Kong); Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn [Chongqing University, School of Economics and Business Administration (China); Zhang Jianfeng, E-mail: jianfenz@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States)

    2013-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.

  7. Essays on econometric modeling of subjective perceptions of risks in environment and human health

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nguyen, To Ngoc

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    the estimator asymptotically unbiased and efficient. The third essay addresses the problem of modeling perceived mortality risks from arsenic concentrations in drinking water. I estimated a formal model that allows for ambiguity about risk. The empirical...

  8. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  9. Quantitative Risk Management Rudiger Frey

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frey, Rüdiger

    Lecture Quantitative Risk Management R¨udiger Frey Universit¨at Leipzig Wintersemester 2010 risk management C. Introduction to Portfolio Credit Derivatives c 2010 (Frey) 1 #12;A. Introduction of counterparties. Measuring and management of credit risk is of high importance for financial institutions

  10. LAMAR DODD SCHOOL OF ART PORTFOLIO REVIEW REQUIREMENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold, Jonathan

    LAMAR DODD SCHOOL OF ART PORTFOLIO REVIEW REQUIREMENTS Summer 2014 PHASE I: Pre-review WHO floor, North wing, Lamar Dodd School of Art WHAT: The portfolio is to contain the FIVE works described and guidelines are not adhered to, the portfolio will be rejected. HOW: The Lamar Dodd School of Art Portfolio

  11. Application of Risk Analysis to Evaluating M&V Requirement for Energy Efficiency Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tan, G.; Gregoire, C.; Gogte, S.; Gowans, D.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    %. The lessons from this experiment may be used to conduct large-scale risk analysis to optimize evaluation cost allocations for more complex energy efficiency program portfolio....

  12. Time Series Models for Measuring Market Risk Time Series Models for Measuring Market Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hernández Lobato, José Miguel

    and collaborative mixtures of experts 3 GARCH processes with non-parametric innovations 4 Conclusions and future Competitive and collaborative mixtures of experts 3 GARCH processes with non-parametric innovations 4 Volatility models: GARCH processes We say {rt}T t=1 follows a GARCH(1,1) process if: rt = tt (4) 2 t = + |rt

  13. Risk-Averse Control of Undiscounted Transient Markov Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ozlem Cavus

    2012-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Dec 30, 2012 ... Abstract: We use Markov risk measures to formulate a risk-averse version of the undiscounted total cost problem for a transient controlled ...

  14. We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost for an adaptive equally weighted portfolio. Moreover, we implement a rule-based expert system for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duran, Ahmet

    We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost financial decision making process by using the power of spectral analysis. We use sev- eral key components PRESENTS A Profitable Trading and Risk Management Strategy in Presence of Transaction Cost Friday, February

  15. A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nicolas Langrené§ October 12, 2010 Abstract We develop a structural risk-neutral model for energy market makes such a market incomplete. We follow a local risk minimization approach to price and hedge energyA structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives René Aïd Luciano Campi

  16. Modeling human risk: Cell & molecular biology in context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is anticipated that early in the next century manned missions into outer space will occur, with a mission to Mars scheduled between 2015 and 2020. However, before such missions can be undertaken, a realistic estimation of the potential risks to the flight crews is required. One of the uncertainties remaining in this risk estimation is that posed by the effects of exposure to the radiation environment of outer space. Although the composition of this environment is fairly well understood, the biological effects arising from exposure to it are not. The reasons for this are three-fold: (1) A small but highly significant component of the radiation spectrum in outer space consists of highly charged, high energy (HZE) particles which are not routinely experienced on earth, and for which there are insufficient data on biological effects; (2) Most studies on the biological effects of radiation to date have been high-dose, high dose-rate, whereas in space, with the exception of solar particle events, radiation exposures will be low-dose, low dose-rate; (3) Although it has been established that the virtual absence of gravity in space has a profound effect on human physiology, it is not clear whether these effects will act synergistically with those of radiation exposure. A select panel will evaluate the utilizing experiments and models to accurately predict the risks associated with exposure to HZE particles. Topics of research include cellular and tissue response, health effects associated with radiation damage, model animal systems, and critical markers of Radiation response.

  17. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s new ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time;...

  18. N. Mariana Islands- Renewables Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands enacted its Renewables Portfolio Standard in September 2007, in which a certain percentage of its net electricity sales must come from renewable e...

  19. Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In June 2009, West Virginia enacted an ''Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard'' that requires investor-owned utilities (IOUs)* with more than 30,000 residential customers to supply...

  20. Essays in asset pricing and portfolio choice 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illeditsch, Philipp Karl

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    ESSAYS IN ASSET PRICING AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE A Dissertation by PHILIPP KARL ILLEDITSCH Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2007... Major Subject: Finance ESSAYS IN ASSET PRICING AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE A Dissertation by PHILIPP KARL ILLEDITSCH Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR...

  1. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  2. COMPARISON OF SEISMIC RISK ESTIMATES USING DIFFERENT METHODS TO MODEL FRAGILITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 COMPARISON OF SEISMIC RISK ESTIMATES USING DIFFERENT METHODS TO MODEL FRAGILITY Pierre Gehl1 , Ariane Ducellier2 , Caterina Negulescu3 , Jaime Abad4 and John Douglas5 Seismic risk evaluations play of decades hundreds of such studies have been conducted. However, the assessment of seismic risk is always

  3. Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Del Moral , Pierre

    Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment #12;The SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS TO ACCIDENT RISK ASSESSMENT DISSERTATION to obtain the doctor's degree promotor Prof. dr. A. Bagchi #12;Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Accident risk assessment

  4. Risk Measures Constituting Risk Metrics for Decision Making in the Chemical Process Industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prem, Katherine

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    monetization. Predicting incidents as leading metrics is pivotal to improving plant processes and, for individual and societal safety in the vicinity of the plant (portfolio). From this study it can be concluded that the comprehensive judgments of all the risks...

  5. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Markets for renewable energy have historically been motivated primarily by policy efforts, but a less widely recognized driver is poised to also play a major role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Resource planning has re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, the most recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions--primarily coming from wind power--are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. This report examines how twelve western utilities treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. Our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to identify methodological/modeling issues, and suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. Here we summarize the key findings of the report, beginning with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities, an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities' analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

  6. A New Cone Programming Approach for Robust Portfolio Selection ?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2006-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Dec 10, 2006 ... Let us consider a discrete-time market with n traded assets. The vector of asset ...... We next report the performance of the classical portfolio and the robust portfolios corre- sponding to our ..... Utilities (Gas & Electric). EMR.

  7. Assessing and reducing product portfolio complexity in the pharmaceutical industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leiter, Kevin M. (Kevin Michael)

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Overly complex product portfolios lead to inefficient use of resources and limit an organization's ability to react quickly to changing market dynamics. The challenges of reducing portfolio complexity are defining excess ...

  8. Renewable Portfolio Standard MARK JACCARD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    impacts and risks when compared with electricity derived from conventional sources, such as fossil fuels rain and greenhouse gases relative to a total reliance on fossil fuels, and zero risk of radiation: 1. Some jurisdictions provide greater subsidies to conventional generation fuels and technologies. 2

  9. Risk analysis in sterilization services: A first step towards a generic model of risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    and expense. These policies make the sterilization services difficult to manage, generate more risks, could in "GISEH'2012 - 6ème conférence francophone en Gestion et Ingénierie des SystèmEs Hospitaliers, Québec

  10. Why Do States Adopt Renewable Portfolio Standards?: An Empirical Investigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lyon, Thomas P.

    131 Why Do States Adopt Renewable Portfolio Standards?: An Empirical Investigation Thomas P. Lyon* and Haitao Yin** Renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) for electricity generation are politically popularU.S.stategovernments of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) as a policy tool for promoting renewable electricity generation. An RPS

  11. PET: A PErsonalized Trust Model with Reputation and Risk Evaluation for P2P Resource Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Weisong

    PET: A PErsonalized Trust Model with Reputation and Risk Evaluation for P2P Resource Sharing the construction of a good cooperation, especially in the context of economic-based solutions for the P2P resource sharing. The trust model consists of two parts: reputation evaluation and risk evaluation. Reputation

  12. The CORAS Approach for Model-based Risk Management applied to e-Commerce Domain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    into appropriate phases of object-oriented software development processes. To this end, systematic model-based risk1 The CORAS Approach for Model-based Risk Management applied to e-Commerce Domain Dimitris Raptis Appleton Laboratory, UK, t.dimitrakos@rl.ac.uk: Institute for Energy Technology, Norway, bjornag

  13. A Hidden Markov Chain Model for the Term Structure of Bond Credit Risk Spreads 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, L; Allen, David E; Morkel-Kingsbury, N

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper provides a Markov chain model for the term structure and credit risk spreads of bond processes. It allows dependency between the stochastic process modeling the interest rate and the Markov chain process describing ...

  14. A comparison of radiological risk assessment models: Risk assessment models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and EPA (for NESHAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wahl, L.E.

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiological risk assessments and resulting risk estimates have been developed by numerous national and international organizations, including the National Research Council`s fifth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). A fourth organization, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has also performed a risk assessment as a basis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP). This paper compares the EPA`s model of risk assessment with the models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, and ICRP. Comparison is made of the values chosen by each organization for several model parameters: populations used in studies and population transfer coefficients, dose-response curves and dose-rate effects, risk projection methods, and risk estimates. This comparison suggests that the EPA has based its risk assessment on outdated information and that the organization should consider adopting the method used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, or ICRP.

  15. Natural gas contracts in efficient portfolios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sutherland, R.J.

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report addresses the {open_quotes}contracts portfolio{close_quotes} issue of natural gas contracts in support of the Domestic Natural Gas and Oil Initiative (DGOI) published by the U.S. Department of Energy in 1994. The analysis is a result of a collaborative effort with the Public Service Commission of the State of Maryland to consider {open_quotes}reforms that enhance the industry`s competitiveness{close_quotes}. The initial focus of our collaborative effort was on gas purchasing and contract portfolios; however, it became apparent that efficient contracting to purchase and use gas requires a broader consideration of regulatory reform. Efficient portfolios are obtained when the holder of the portfolio is affected by and is responsible for the performance of the portfolio. Natural gas distribution companies may prefer a diversity of contracts, but the efficient use of gas requires that the local distribution company be held accountable for its own purchases. Ultimate customers are affected by their own portfolios, which they manage efficiently by making their own choices. The objectives of the DGOI, particularly the efficient use of gas, can be achieved when customers have access to suppliers of gas and energy services under an improved regulatory framework. The evolution of the natural gas market during the last 15 years is described to account for the changing preferences toward gas contracts. Long-term contracts for natural gas were prevalent before the early 1980s, primarily because gas producers had few options other than to sell to a single pipeline company, and this pipeline company, in turn, was the only seller to a gas distribution company.

  16. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  17. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager® Office Hours, Focus Topic: Portfolio Manager 2015 Priorities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. We will plan to spend the first 20-30 minutes of each...

  18. Modeling toxic endpoints for improving human health risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bruce, Erica Dawn

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Risk assessment procedures for mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) present a problem due to the lack of available potency and toxicity data on mixtures and individual compounds. This study examines the toxicity of parent compound...

  19. A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stroud, Jonathan

    A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return 2000 This Draft: December 2003 Abstract We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete, parameter and model uncertainty, and learning. We first establish the properties of the method

  20. An evaluation of risk simulation models for reserve estimates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Judah, Janeen Sue

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in estimating reserves for petroleum economic evaluations is an 1mportant everyday problem encountered by practicing petroleum engineers. This study addresses the problem of est1mating reserves for petroleum evaluations with little available data. The risk... to reserve est1mates. Latin Hypercube sampling is a relatively recent statistical development and has never before been applied to petroleum economic evaluations or petroleum risk simulators. The results show that simple random sampling is adequate...

  1. Multiperiod Portfolio Optimization with General Transaction Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-07-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Department of Management Science and Operations, London Business School, ... For market impact costs, we show that the optimal portfolio policy at each ... Markowitz's analysis are that the investor only cares about single-period ... The case with a single-risky asset and proportional transaction costs is well understood.

  2. Using Monte Carlo analyses in uptake models for evaluating risks to ecological receptors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hayse, J.W.; Hlohowskyj, I. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment Div.

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    A deterministic modeling approach was used to evaluate risks to wildlife receptors at a contaminated site in Maryland. Models to predict daily doses of contaminants to ecological receptors used single point estimates for media contaminant concentrations and for ecological exposure factors. Predicted doses exceeding contaminant- and species-specific dose values were considered to be indicative of adverse risk, and the model results are being used to develop and evaluate remedial alternatives for the site. Risk estimates based on the deterministic approach predicted daily contaminant doses exceeding acceptable dose levels for more than half of the modeled receptors. Ecological risks were also evaluated using a stochastic approach. In this approach the input parameters that most greatly affected the deterministic model outcome were identified using sensitivity analyses. Statistical distributions were assigned to these parameters, and Monte Carlo simulations of the models were conducted to generate probability density functions of contaminant doses. The resulting probability density functions were then used to quantify the probability that contaminant uptake would exceed the acceptable dose values. Models using Monte Carlo analyses identified only a low probability of exceeding the acceptable dose level for most of the contaminants and receptors. The differences in the risks predicted using the deterministic and stochastic models would likely result in the selection of different remediation goals and actions for the same area of contamination. Given the different interpretations that could result from these two modeling approaches, the authors recommend that both techniques be considered for estimating risks to ecological receptors.

  3. Industrial Energy Efficiency as a Risk Management Strategy 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naumoff, C.; Shipley, A. M.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    portfolio. Traditional strategies to combat against unwanted exposure in this market include hedging and long term and futures contracts. However, the following explores the topic of considering energy efficiency as a risk management tool in reducing...

  4. Energy Procurement Portfolios and Production Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    (stochastic modeling) Setting of the "risk factor" must reflect your operational reality Electricity pricing 2011 Project team: Cagri Latifoglu Lehigh University Jim Hutton Air Products Peter Connard Air Products buckets Contract types available: ­ Fixed price (FP or f) ­ Quantitybased tiered (QB or q) ­ Timebased

  5. Inference of the Structural Credit Risk Model Yuxi Li, Li Cheng and Dale Schuurmans

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schuurmans, Dale

    , which sits at the very heart of the structural credit risk model, causes great difficulty when in. Take the sub- prime mortgage crisis as an example where a failure in credit risk assessment has played a critical role in precipitating a world wide financial crisis that has profoundly affected the global

  6. Risk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wagener, Thorsten

    : Water quality; Risk; Monte Carlo; Sensitivity analysis; Eutrophication 1. Introduction 1.1. Motivation recognised in the development of some decision-support tools, for example, QUAL2E- UNCAS (Brown and BarnwellRisk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

  7. New Logic Modeling Paradigms for Complex System Reliability and Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bernstein, Joseph B.

    New Logic Modeling Paradigms for Complex System Reliability and Risk Analysis Antoine Rauzy Chair ground ... is a mature technology ... is a great tool for decision making So, what's next? · More://www.lgi.ecp.fr/pmwiki.php/PagesPerso/ARauzy *Sponsored by SAFRAN group #12;Probabilistic Risk Assessment ... ... is now established on a solid scientific

  8. A Framework for Dynamic Safety and Risk Management Modeling in Complex Engineering Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leveson, Nancy

    analysis (FTA), and probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) rely on a chain-of-event paradigm of accident analysis or risk assessment techniques, such as failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA), fault tree and organizational boundaries. STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is a comprehensive accident

  9. Human-robot interactions: model-based risk analysis and safety case construction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guiochet, Jérémie

    Human-robot interactions: model-based risk analysis and safety case construction Quynh Anh DO HOANG potential threats related to physical human-robot interactions and to assess the associated risks that might affect safety and dependability. Because of the complexity of human-robot interactions, rigorous

  10. Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

    2009-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

  11. An Information Systems Security Risk Assessment Model Under Dempster- Schafer Theory of Belief Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, Lili; Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ], artificial intelligence and expert systems [18, 61], data mining [33, 60], financial portfolio management [45], image processing in radiology [10], remote sensing in agriculture [11] and in the ocean [29], and forecasting demand for mobile satellites [28...

  12. Privacy Engineering Objectives and Risk Model-Discussion Deck

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Regulation, FIPPs, etc.) Risk Requirements System Evaluation SeptemberWorkshop #12;Privacy Engineering of self-determination, loss of trust, discrimination and economic loss by providing predictability. · Economic Loss: Economic loss can include direct financial losses as the result of identity theft, as well

  13. Risk Based Maintenance Optimization using Probabilistic Maintenance Quantification Models of Circuit Breaker

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Natti, Satish

    2010-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

    New maintenance techniques for circuit breakers are studied in this dissertation by proposing a probabilistic maintenance model and a new methodology to assess circuit breaker condition utilizing its control circuit data. A risk-based decision...

  14. Option prices in a model with stochastic disaster risk Sang Byung Seo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kahana, Michael J.

    Option prices in a model with stochastic disaster risk Sang Byung Seo University of Pennsylvania volatility curve. First draft: January 18, 2013. Seo: sangseo@wharton.upenn.edu; Wachter: jwachter

  15. Application of the cumulative risk model in predicting school readiness in Head Start children

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodriguez-Escobar, Olga Lydia

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    outcomes. This study built on this literature by investigating how child, parent, and family risk factors predicted school readiness in Head Start children using two statistical models. Specific aims of this study included identifying 1) to what degree...

  16. THE ROLE OF RISK MODELS IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS bridges vol. 19, October 2008 / Pielke's Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    technologies in the form of highly complex financial risk models. When the story of the current financial instruments possible during normal times are virtually useless during times of crisis. A second problem

  17. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  18. Portfolio Resampling on Various Financial Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yu-Ching Eugene

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the six approaches, theReturns Markowitz SIM_SS SIM_NSS CCM_SS CCM_NSS MGM_SS Equal S&P500 Index Figure 3.2: Performanceof returns, M arkowitz > CCM SS ? SIM N SS > M GM > SIM SS >

  19. A framework for the architecting of aerospace systems portfolios with commonality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hofstetter, Wilfried Konstantin

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    (cont.) The framework was applied to three case studies: commonality analysis for a portfolio of future and legacy exploration life support systems, for the historical Saturn launch vehicle portfolio, and for a portfolio ...

  20. GTO Project Portfolio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative FuelsNovember 13,StatementFinancing SolutionsFossilCommunitiesGTO Project Portfolio

  1. COMPONENT DEGRADATION SUSCEPTIBILITIES AS THE BASES FOR MODELING REACTOR AGING RISK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

    2010-07-18T23:59:59.000Z

    The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

  2. Energy Portfolio Standards and the Promotion of Combined Heat...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    2009 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Partnership paper covers Energy Portfolio Standards (EPS) which are becoming a widely applied method...

  3. Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Overview - 2014 BTO Peer...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technologies Office's Small Buildings and Small Portfolios activities. Through robust feedback, the BTO Program Peer Review enhances existing efforts and improves future designs....

  4. Barriers to CHP with Renewable Portfolio Standards, Draft White...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    development of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) has helped spur the growth of renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and biomass power. This report aims to...

  5. Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gorden Spangardt

    2002-10-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 18, 2002 ... Optimisation of physical and financial power purchase portfolios. Gorden Spangardt (spa ***at*** umsicht.fhg.de) Michael Lucht (luc ***at*** ...

  6. NASA's Composite Portfolio: Department of Energy Workshop Fiber...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    NASA 's Composites Portfolio Department of Energy Workshop Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites Manufacturing Presented by: John Vickers January 13, 2014 www.nasa.gov...

  7. The Federal Guiding Principles Checklist in ENERGY STAR Portfolio

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This webcast will teach Federal energy and sustainability professionals how to use the ENERGY STAR measurement and tracking tool, Portfolio Manager, to help ensure compliance with the Guiding...

  8. Risk-based maintenance modeling. Prioritization of maintenance importances and quantification of maintenance effectiveness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vesely, W.E.; Rezos, J.T. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes methods for prioritizing the risk importances of maintenances using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Approaches then are described for quantifying their reliability and risk effects. Two different PRA importance measures, minimal cutset importances and risk reduction importances, were used to prioritize maintenances; the findings show that both give similar results if appropriate criteria are used. The justifications for the particular importance measures also are developed. The methods developed to quantify the reliability and risk effects of maintenance actions are extensions of the usual reliability models now used in PRAs. These extended models consider degraded states of the component, and quantify the benefits of maintenance in correcting degradations and preventing failures. The negative effects of maintenance, including downtimes, also are included. These models are specific types of Markov models. The data for these models can be obtained from plant maintenance logs and from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). To explore the potential usefulness of these models, the authors analyzed a range of postulated values of input data. These models were used to examine maintenance effects on a components reliability and performance for various maintenance programs and component data. Maintenance schedules were analyzed to optimize the component`s availability. In specific cases, the effects of maintenance were found to be large.

  9. ENDOWING CITIZENS WITH A PORTFOLIO OF STATE-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES FOR EFFICIENT AND EQUITABLE PRIVATIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hartnett, William

    2003-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper discusses a portfolio endowment policy as an alternative to conventional privatization policies. The portfolio endowment policy endows each citizen with a ...

  10. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Summary Report 2011 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Summary Report Summary report of the 2011...

  11. 2011 CHP/Industrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    11 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda 2011 CHPIndustrial Distributed Energy R&D Portfolio Review - Agenda Agenda for the CHP Industrial Distributed...

  12. Least-squares approach to risk parity in portfolio selection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xi Bai

    2013-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 21, 2013 ... GICS, we have ten sectors: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health. Care, Industrials, Information Technology, ...

  13. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    chlorinated pesticides, e.g. , DDT) based on Swedish marketInvestigating the global fate of DDT: Model evaluation anddichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), and its degradation

  14. NIST Privacy Engineering Objectives and Risk Model Discussion Draft Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    liberties.1 Workshop discussions assessed models provided by other disciplines such as cybersecurity sectors and disciplines. Some key considerations that emerged from the workshop included: 1

  15. Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk. Patrick Henaff (1), Ismail and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot- based valuation framework coupled with a financial and phrases. Energy markets; commodities; natural gas storage; model uncertainty. JEL Classification: C4; C5

  16. Evaluating a Proposed 20% National Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logan, J.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.; Bird, L.; James, T. L.; Shah, M. R.

    2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the impacts of a proposed 20% national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) by 2021, which has been advanced in the U.S. Congress by Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico. The paper was prepared before the America Recovery and Reinvestment Act was signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009, and thus does not consider important changes in renewable energy (RE) policy that need to be addressed in follow-on analysis. We use NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate the impacts of the RPS requirements on the energy sector and consider design issues associated with renewable energy certificate (REC) trading markets.

  17. Legal Issues and Risks Associated with Building Information Modeling Technology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foster, Leon Lewis

    2008-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a tool that has already changed the ways projects are conceived, designed, communicated and constructed by integrating the fragmented Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry. BIM has proven...

  18. Time consistency and risk averse dynamic decision models ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    sistent models as we provide practitioners with an intuitive economic inter- pretation for the ... ning and financial engineering problems. Based on ... consistency is shown to be one basic requirement to get suitable optimal de- cisions, in ...

  19. Wind Farm Portfolio Optimization under Network Capacity Constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Wind Farm Portfolio Optimization under Network Capacity Constraints H´el`ene Le Cadre, Anthony of wind farms in a Market Coupling organization, for two Market Designs (exogenous prices and endogenous of efficient wind farm portfolios, is derived theoretically as a function of the number of wind farms

  20. Operation and Configuration of a Storage Portfolio via Convex Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    is equally broad, and includes pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage (CAES), battery energy storage sys type and size of battery is sub- sequently picked as the (single device) storage portfolio. HoweverOperation and Configuration of a Storage Portfolio via Convex Optimization Matt Kraning, Yang Wang

  1. The Potential Economic Impacts of a Renewable Portfolio Standard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delaware, University of

    , hydropower, and biomass) according to a specified schedule. Many states are prioritizing renewable energyThe Potential Economic Impacts of a Renewable Portfolio Standard in Delaware Briefing Paper of Figures Figure 1. State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S. ..................... 1 Figure 2. Retail

  2. advanced materials portfolio: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    materials portfolio First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Portfolio evaluation of advanced...

  3. Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory System.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fainekos, Georgios E.

    Simulating Insulin Infusion Pump Risks by In-Silico Modeling of the Insulin-Glucose Regulatory for simulating risks due to insulin infusion pump us- age by diabetic patients. Insulin infusion pumps allow-regulate their blood glucose levels. However, the use of infusion pumps and continuous glucose monitors can pose risks

  4. Recharging U.S. Energy Policy: Advocating for a National Renewable Portfolio Standard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lunt, Robin J.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    global warming problems that accompany traditional electricitytheir electricity portfolio so as to prevent global warming,

  5. Advanced Benchmarking: Benchmark Building Energy Use Quickly and Accurately Using EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Advanced Benchmarking: Benchmark Building Energy Use Quickly and Accurately Using EPA's ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager Webinar.

  6. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  7. State Clean Energy Practices: Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurlbut, D.

    2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA) project is supported by the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program within the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. This project seeks to quantify the impacts of existing state policies, and to identify crucial policy attributes and their potential applicability to other states. The goal is to assist states in determining which clean energy policies or policy portfolios will best accomplish their environmental, economic, and security goals. For example, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandates an increase in the use of wind, solar, biomass, and other alternatives to fossil and nuclear electric generation. This paper provides a summary of the policy objectives that commonly drive the establishment of an RPS, the key issues that states have encountered in implementing an RPS, and the strategies that some of the leading states have followed to address implementation challenges. The factors that help an RPS function best generally have been explored in other analyses. This study complements others by comparing empirical outcomes, and identifying the policies that appear to have the greatest impact on results.

  8. Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    the dynamic relationship between oil price variations and stock markets. The pioneering paper by Jones model with GARCH effects to American monthly data and shows a significant relationship between oil priceOil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over

  9. Reduced form electricity spot price modeling with a view towards spike risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gerkmann, Ralf

    Reduced form electricity spot price modeling with a view towards spike risk Prof. Dr. Meyer. Februar 2010, 16:15 Uhr Seminarraum, Ludwigstraße 33 I The recent deregulation of electricity markets has led to the creation of energy exchanges, where the electricity is freely traded. We study the most

  10. Sloshing in the LNG shipping industry: risk modelling through multivariate heavy-tail analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sloshing in the LNG shipping industry: risk modelling through multivariate heavy-tail analysis In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping industry, the phenomenon of slosh- ing can lead to the occurrence in the LNG shipping industry. KEYWORDS: Sloshing, multivariate heavy-tail distribution, asymptotic depen

  11. Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, Robert K. D.

    Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species Philip B and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, PO Box 173120, Bozeman, MT 59717-3120, USA Summary 1. Biofuel. However, concerns have been raised on the invasiveness of biofuel feedstocks. Estimating invasion

  12. Discrete Fracture Network Models for Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jack Pashin; Guohai Jin; Chunmiao Zheng; Song Chen; Marcella McIntyre

    2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A software package called DFNModeler has been developed to assess the potential risks associated with carbon sequestration in coal. Natural fractures provide the principal conduits for fluid flow in coal-bearing strata, and these fractures present the most tangible risks for the leakage of injected carbon dioxide. The objectives of this study were to develop discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling tools for risk assessment and to use these tools to assess risks in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama, where coal-bearing strata have high potential for carbon sequestration and enhanced coalbed methane recovery. DFNModeler provides a user-friendly interface for the construction, visualization, and analysis of DFN models. DFNModeler employs an OpenGL graphics engine that enables real-time manipulation of DFN models. Analytical capabilities in DFNModeler include display of structural and hydrologic parameters, compartmentalization analysis, and fluid pathways analysis. DFN models can be exported to third-party software packages for flow modeling. DFN models were constructed to simulate fracturing in coal-bearing strata of the upper Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin. Outcrops and wireline cores were used to characterize fracture systems, which include joint systems, cleat systems, and fault-related shear fractures. DFN models were constructed to simulate jointing, cleating, faulting, and hydraulic fracturing. Analysis of DFN models indicates that strata-bound jointing compartmentalizes the Pottsville hydrologic system and helps protect shallow aquifers from injection operations at reservoir depth. Analysis of fault zones, however, suggests that faulting can facilitate cross-formational flow. For this reason, faults should be avoided when siting injection wells. DFN-based flow models constructed in TOUGH2 indicate that fracture aperture and connectivity are critical variables affecting the leakage of injected CO{sub 2} from coal. Highly transmissive joints near an injection well have potential to divert a large percentage of an injected CO{sub 2} stream away from a target coal seam. However, the strata-bound nature of Pottsville fracture systems is a natural factor that mitigates the risk of long-range leakage and surface seepage. Flow models indicate that cross-formational flow in strata-bound joint networks is low and is dissipated by about an order of magnitude at each successive bedding contact. These models help confirm that strata-bound joint networks are self-compartmentalizing and that the thick successions of interbedded shale and sandstone separating the Pottsville coal zones are confining units that protect shallow aquifers from injection operations at reservoir depth. DFN models are powerful tools for the simulation and analysis of fracture networks and can play an important role in the assessment of risks associated with carbon sequestration and enhanced coalbed methane recovery. Importantly, the stochastic nature DFN models dictates that they cannot be used to precisely reproduce reservoir conditions in a specific field area. Rather, these models are most useful for simulating the fundamental geometric and statistical properties of fracture networks. Because the specifics of fracture architecture in a given area can be uncertain, multiple realizations of DFN models and DFN-based flow models can help define variability that may be encountered during field operations. Using this type of approach, modelers can inform the risk assessment process by characterizing the types and variability of fracture architecture that may exist in geologic carbon sinks containing natural fractures.

  13. MARKETING PORTFOLIO Please keep in mind that your audience for the portfolio is a prospective employer, so everything has to be

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    MARKETING PORTFOLIO DIRECTIONS AUDIENCE Please keep in mind that your audience for the portfolio is a prospective employer, so everything has to be done with that individual in mind. At a minimum you

  14. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  15. Regional Portfolio Model ResultsRegional Portfolio Model Results Michael Schilmoeller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plans on the efficient frontier Interpreting a plan Issue Studies Carbon control and climate changeChanges in Assumptions and Data CO2 penalty likelihood distribution Conservation base case New programs and re on the efficient frontier Interpreting a plan Issue Studies Carbon control and climate change The economic effects

  16. Modeling the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.

    2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

  17. Optimization Online - Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. P. Brito

    2012-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Mar 3, 2012 ... Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios. R. P. Brito(rpedro.brito ***at*** gmail.com) L. N. Vicente(lnv ***at*** mat.uc.pt). Abstract: A ...

  18. Running in place : renewal portfolio standards and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hogan, Michael T. (Michael Thomas)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewable portfolio standards ("RPS") have spread widely as states have made an effort to promote electricity production from renewable energy sources, granting privileged market access to eligible technologies and resources. ...

  19. ITP Energy Intensive Processes: Energy-Intensive Processes Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    teChnologIes Program IntroduCtIon the research and development (r&d) portfolio for energy-Intensive Processes (eIP) addresses the top technology opportunities to save energy...

  20. Technology Portfolio Planning by Weighted Graph Analysis of System Architectures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    Technology Portfolio Planning by Weighted Graph Analysis of System Architectures Peter Davison and Bruce Cameron Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 Edward F. Crawley Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Skolkovo 143025, Russia Abstract5 Many systems undergo significant

  1. Portfolio evaluation of advanced coal technology : research, development, and demonstration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naga-Jones, Ayaka

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper evaluates the advanced coal technology research, development and demonstration programs at the U.S. Department of Energy since the 1970s. The evaluation is conducted from a portfolio point of view and derives ...

  2. EPA ENERGY STAR Webinar: ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager 201

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Continue to learn about EPA’s ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager tool, with a deeper dive into more advanced functionalities such as: managing and tracking changes to your property uses over time; using...

  3. The development of an effective portfolio assessment instrument

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alderete, Karen Leigh

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFECTIVE PORTFOLIO ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENT A Thesis by KAREN LEIGH ALDERETE Submitted to the Offices of Graduate Studies of Texas AfxM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER... OF SCIENCE August 1993 Major Subject: Curriculum and Instruction THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFECTIVE PORTFOLIO ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENT A Thesis by KAREN LEIGH ALDERETE Approved as to style and content by: Viola E. Florez ( Chair of Committee ) Rafael ra...

  4. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

  5. Essays in financial economics and risk management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zou, Lin

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    of seven different estimators during the Asian crisis using coverage probabilities. We take a different approach to evaluating VaR estimators and look at their performance when used as a portfolio selection tool. In particular, we look at an investor with a... downside risk constraint and ask how VaR estimators perform in terms of portfolio performance over the Asian crisis period. Our findings indicate that the VaR estimator with the best coverage probability is not necessarily the best estimator in terms...

  6. Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

  7. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  8. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Sheldon, Federick T. [University of Memphis; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  9. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  10. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Objectives. The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO{sub 2} permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale. The main motivation was that carbon capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role as a climate change mitigation technology only if it is deployed at scale of gigatonne per year injections over a period of decades. Continuous injection of this magnitude must be understood at the scale of a geologic basin. Specifically, the technical objectives of this project were: (1) to develop mathematical models of capacity and injectivity at the basin scale; (2) to apply quantitative risk assessment methodologies that will inform on CO{sub 2} permanence; (3) to apply the models to geologic basins across the continental United States. These technical objectives go hand-in-hand with the overarching goals of: (1) advancing the science for deployment of CCS at scale; and (2) contributing to training the next generation of scientists and engineers that will implement and deploy CCS in the United States and elsewhere. Methods. The differentiating factor of this proposal was to perform fundamental research on migration and fate of CO{sub 2} and displaced brine at the geologic basin scale. We developed analytical sharp-interface models of the evolution of CO{sub 2} plumes over the duration of injection (decades) and after injection (centuries). We applied the analytical solutions of CO{sub 2} plume migration and pressure evolution to specific geologic basins, to estimate the maximum footprint of the plume, and the maximum injection rate that can be sustained during a certain injection period without fracturing the caprock. These results have led to more accurate capacity estimates, based on fluid flow dynamics, rather than ad hoc assumptions of an overall “efficiency factor.” We also applied risk assessment methodologies to evaluate the uncertainty in our predictions of storage capacity and leakage rates. This was possible because the analytical mathematical models provide ultrafast forward simulation and they contain few parameters. Impact. The project has been enormously successful both in terms of its scientific output (journal publications) as well as impact in the government and industry. The mathematical models and uncertainty quantification methodologies developed here o?er a physically-based approach for estimating capacity and leakage risk at the basin scale. Our approach may also facilitate deployment of CCS by providing the basis for a simpler and more coherent regulatory structure than an “individual-point-of-injection” permitting approach. It may also lead to better science-based policy for post-closure design and transfer of responsibility to the State.

  11. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Williams, Scott G. [Peter Maccallum Cancer Centre and University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Kestin, Larry L., E-mail: lkestin@comcast.net [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2012-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification. Conclusions: The PPC is an independent and powerful predictor of clinical outcomes of prostate cancer after RT. A risk model replacing T stage with the PPC to reduce subjectivity demonstrated potentially improved stratification.

  12. Incorporating property characteristics and capital market conditions in optimizing commercial real estate portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Yanjia

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We all know for diversification purposes we cannot "put all our eggs in one basket." Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory leads us to diversify our portfolio to achieve the highest Sharp ratio. Fama-French's Three-Factor ...

  13. Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects Building an All-of-the-Above Portfolio with Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Projects...

  14. The effectiveness of portfolios in assessing students' connections between mathematical symbols and mathematical concepts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McGinnis, Leslie Grable

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of mathematics portfolios in determining the type of connections students were making between mathematical concepts and mathematical symbols. A mathematics portfolio is a purposeful...

  15. Essays on the Economics of Environmental Issues: The Environmental Kuznets Curve to Optimal Energy Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meininger, Aaron G.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewable Portfolio157 B.2 Renewable Energy Funding and Speci?c Technology161 ix B.3 Renewable Energy Penetration

  16. Peer Review of the Federal Energy Management Program Energy-Efficient Product Procurement Portfolio

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document details the peer review of the Federal Energy Management Program Energy-Efficient Product Procurement portfolio.

  17. A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walsh, Sean [School of Physics, National University of Ireland Galway, Connacht (Ireland); Putten, Wil van der [Department of Medical Physics and Bio-Engineering, Galway University Hospitals, Connacht, Ireland and School of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway, Connacht (Ireland)

    2013-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes. Methods: A fully heterogeneous population averaged tumor control probability model was fit to clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments. The tumor control probability model was then employed to predict the clinical outcome of extreme hypofractionation regimes, as utilized in stereotactic body radiotherapy. Results: The tumor control probability model achieves an excellent level of fit, R{sup 2} value of 0.93 and a root mean squared error of 1.31%, to the clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments using realistic values for biological input parameters. Residuals Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 1.0% are produced by the tumor control probability model when compared to clinical outcome data for stereotactic body radiotherapy. Conclusions: The authors conclude that this tumor control probability model, used with the optimized radiosensitivity values obtained from the fit, is an appropriate mechanistic model for the analysis and evaluation of external beam RT plans with regard to tumor control for these clinical conditions.

  18. Incorporating Perceived Mortality Risks from Arsenic into Models of Drinking Water Behavior and Valuation of Arsenic Risk Reductions: Preliminary Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shaw, W. Douglass

    and estimating values for arsenic reduction risks. Several studies have been undertaken to examine the costs of compliance with the new standard, mainly in the form of capital cost for improved or new public system of Economics Texas A&M University Mark Walker, Associate Professor Dept. of Natural Resource and Environmental

  19. Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LaRocca, Sarah; Hassel, Henrik; Guikema, Seth

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist which can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Thus in this paper, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this pa...

  20. Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, John E.

    Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs John E. Mitchell. Abstract: The inclusion of transaction costs is an essential element of any realistic portfolio transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. In partic- ular, we consider linear

  1. OCTOBER 2010 SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS TO DESIGNERS SID-S SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTS PORTFOLIO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    by the Sustainability Team at the University of Michigan (U-M) Department of Architecture, Engineering & ConstructionSID-S OCTOBER 2010 SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS TO DESIGNERS SID-S SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTS PORTFOLIO Page 1 of 2 SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTS PORTFOLIO General The Sustainable Products Portfolio (SPP) is maintained

  2. Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual Model and Future Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oehmen, Josef

    Risk management is an important element of product design. It helps to minimize the project- and product-related risks such as project budget and schedule overrun, or missing product cost and quality targets. Risk management ...

  3. Value based analysis of acquisition portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burgess, Cheri Nicole Markt

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Currently, program-funding allocation is based on program performance. Funding cuts commonly lead to a poor reflection on the program management assigned to the given program. If additional factors such as program risk and ...

  4. Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

  5. Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Sadovsky, Artyom; Sullivan, E. C.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options.

  6. Invited Contribution to Q 76: The Use of Risk Analysis to Support Dam Safety Decisions and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    Decisions and Management DRAFT FOR REVIEW ONLY Portfolio Risk Assessment: A Tool for Managing Dam SafetyICOLD 20th Congress Invited Contribution to Q 76: The Use of Risk Analysis to Support Dam Safety in the Context of the Owner's Business David S. Bowles Professor and Director, Institute for Dam Safety Risk

  7. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Protopapadakis (2002) estimate a GARCH model of daily equityreal. They estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns,

  8. Diversifying Project Portfolios for Utility Energy Service Contracts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Building a diversified project portfolio enhances utility energy service contracts (UESCs) to ensure Federal agencies get the best value possible. Energy efficiency measures are inherent in UESC projects. However, do not overlook the possibility for renewable energy and water efficiency and other conservation measures.

  9. NIH Portfolio Analysis on Climate Change and Health

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madey, Gregory R.

    NIH Portfolio Analysis on Climate Change and Health Total studies that in some way relate to climate change 1,357 > Directly relate to climate change 7 > Examine the climate variables on health 85 response to climate change By David Taylor Climate change and its relationship to health research

  10. Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

    an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper, we ... recent survey on the impact of transaction costs on the dynamic rebalancing problem, see ...... European Journal of Operational Research, 79(1):85–94, 1994. [2] E. D. ... Technical report, Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden,.

  11. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard Northwest Power and Conservation Council

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    resources are being procured and at what cost? Challenges with renewable integration Challenges target for 33% of energy to be from eligible renewable energy resources Large hydro and rooftop solarCalifornia's Renewable Portfolio Standard Northwest Power and Conservation Council California Power

  12. PG&E's Renewable Portfolio Standard & Greenhouse Gas Compliance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electric Transportation Natural Gas Capped at 334 MMT 80 MMT #12;(MMT CO2e Business as Usual ­ 2020 507 Electric and Natural Gas Sectors Energy Efficiency 12 Renewables 11 Other 2 Transportation Low Carbon FuelPG&E's Renewable Portfolio Standard & Greenhouse Gas Compliance Fong Wan Senior Vice President

  13. September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    September 2006 P-1 Appendix P: Risk and Uncertainty This appendix deals with the representation. In the section on "Uncertainties," beginning on page P-18, it describes in detail how the regional portfolio of these files is a compressed file, L24X-DW02-P.zip, containing the workbook files that Appendix L uses

  14. A framework for dynamic safety and risk management modeling in complex engineering systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dulac, Nicolas, 1978-

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Almost all traditional hazard analysis or risk assessment techniques, such as failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) rely on a chain-of-event paradigm of ...

  15. Towards a UML Profile for Model-Based Risk Siv Hilde Houmb1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    complementary risk assessment methods like HazOp1 [10], FTA2 [5], FMEA3 [3], Markov analysis 1 Hazard

  16. PERFLUOROCARBON GAS TRACER STUDIES TO SUPPORT RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBJECTED TO TERRORIST ATTACKS.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SULLIVAN, T.M.; HEISER, J.; WATSON, T.; ALLWINE, K.J.; FLAHERTY, J.E.

    2006-05-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Development of real-time predictive modeling to identify the dispersion and/or source(s) of airborne weapons of mass destruction including chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear material in urban environments is needed to improve response to potential releases of these materials via either terrorist or accidental means. These models will also prove useful in defining airborne pollution dispersion in urban environments for pollution management/abatement programs. Predicting gas flow in an urban setting on a scale of less than a few kilometers is a complicated and challenging task due to the irregular flow paths that occur along streets and alleys and around buildings of different sizes and shapes, i.e., ''urban canyons''. In addition, air exchange between the outside and buildings and subway areas further complicate the situation. Transport models that are used to predict dispersion of WMD/CBRN materials or to back track the source of the release require high-density data and need defensible parameterizations of urban processes. Errors in the data or any of the parameter inputs or assumptions will lead to misidentification of the airborne spread or source release location(s). The need for these models to provide output in a real-time fashion if they are to be useful for emergency response provides another challenge. To improve the ability of New York City's (NYC's) emergency management teams and first response personnel to protect the public during releases of hazardous materials, the New York City Urban Dispersion Program (UDP) has been initiated. This is a four year research program being conducted from 2004 through 2007. This paper will discuss ground level and subway Perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) release studies conducted in New York City. The studies released multiple tracers to study ground level and vertical transport of contaminants. This paper will discuss the results from these tests and how these results can be used for improving transport models needed for risk assessment.

  17. Fuzziness and Funds Allocation in Portfolio Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jack Allen; Sukanto Bhattacharya; Florentin Smarandache

    2002-03-07T23:59:59.000Z

    Each individual investor is different, with different financial goals, different levels of risk tolerance and different personal preferences. From the point of view of investment management, these characteristics are often defined as objectives and constraints. Objectives can be the type of return being sought, while constraints include factors such as time horizon, how liquid the investor is, any personal tax situation and how risk is handled. It's really a balancing act between risk and return with each investor having unique requirements, as well as a unique financial outlook - essentially a constrained utility maximization objective. To analyze how well a customer fits into a particular investor class, one investment house has even designed a structured questionnaire with about two-dozen questions that each has to be answered with values from 1 to 5. The questions range from personal background (age, marital state, number of children, job type, education type, etc.) to what the customer expects from an investment (capital protection, tax shelter, liquid assets, etc.). A fuzzy logic system has been designed for the evaluation of the answers to the above questions. We have investigated the notion of fuzziness with respect to funds allocation.

  18. Thyrza Jagt 1509489 (TU Delft) Modeling the risk at pressure ulcers June 11, 2014 1 / 25 Modeling the risk at pressure ulcers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vuik, Kees

    -support friction · Hooke's law within the bodies · Pressure from above · Movement across the bed · Coulombs law-related skin-support friction on the risk for superficial pressure ulcers during patient repositioning in bed stress · depends on the coefficient of friction µ · depends on the pressure P to the skin · µ depends

  19. Retrospective on the Seniors' Council Tier 1 LDRD portfolio.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ballard, William Parker

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the Tier 1 LDRD portfolio, administered by the Seniors Council between 2003 and 2011. 73 projects were sponsored over the 9 years of the portfolio at a cost of $10.5 million which includes $1.9M of a special effort in directed innovation targeted at climate change and cyber security. Two of these Tier 1 efforts were the seeds for the Grand Challenge LDRDs in Quantum Computing and Next Generation Photovoltaic conversion. A few LDRDs were terminated early when it appeared clear that the research was not going to succeed. A great many more were successful and led to full Tier 2 LDRDs or direct customer sponsorship. Over a dozen patents are in various stages of prosecution from this work, and one project is being submitted for an R and D 100 award.

  20. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: A modeling study for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mousseau, Timothy A.

    Chernobyl: A modeling study for radiocaesium (134 Cs & 137 Cs) Nikolaos Evangeliou a, , Yves Balkanski risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident the accident of Chernobyl. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Accidental releases

  1. Experiments in Robust Portfolio Optimization Daniel Bienstock ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

    testing of the performance of our algorithms. ... The 'laboratory' testing of such ...... paper we have chosen the following concrete model, which we refer to this as ...

  2. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    less than 1% is small hydro and ocean energy, demonstratingexcept that certain small-hydro facilities owned by Oregon8% geothermal, and 4% small hydro. Renewables Portfolio

  3. Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Approval of Its Amended Renewable Energy Plan. June 3, 2013.Benefits of Complying with Renewable Portfolio Standards:The Costs and Benefits of Renewable Resource Procurement in

  4. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to two geologic carbon sequestration sites, Energy Procedia,for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Based on Effectivefor geologic carbon sequestration risk assessment, Energy

  5. Regional groundwater flow and tritium transport modeling and risk assessment of the underground test area, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The groundwater flow system of the Nevada Test Site and surrounding region was evaluated to estimate the highest potential current and near-term risk to the public and the environment from groundwater contamination downgradient of the underground nuclear testing areas. The highest, or greatest, potential risk is estimated by assuming that several unusually rapid transport pathways as well as public and environmental exposures all occur simultaneously. These conservative assumptions may cause risks to be significantly overestimated. However, such a deliberate, conservative approach ensures that public health and environmental risks are not underestimated and allows prioritization of future work to minimize potential risks. Historical underground nuclear testing activities, particularly detonations near or below the water table, have contaminated groundwater near testing locations with radioactive and nonradioactive constituents. Tritium was selected as the contaminant of primary concern for this phase of the project because it is abundant, highly mobile, and represents the most significant contributor to the potential radiation dose to humans for the short term. It was also assumed that the predicted risk to human health and the environment from tritium exposure would reasonably represent the risk from other, less mobile radionuclides within the same time frame. Other contaminants will be investigated at a later date. Existing and newly collected hydrogeologic data were compiled for a large area of southern Nevada and California, encompassing the Nevada Test Site regional groundwater flow system. These data were used to develop numerical groundwater flow and tritium transport models for use in the prediction of tritium concentrations at hypothetical human and ecological receptor locations for a 200-year time frame. A numerical, steady-state regional groundwater flow model was developed to serve as the basis for the prediction of the movement of tritium from the underground testing areas on a regional scale. The groundwater flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking code to define the pathlines followed by groundwater particles originating from 415 points associated with 253 nuclear test locations. Three of the most rapid pathlines were selected for transport simulations. These pathlines are associated with three nuclear test locations, each representing one of the three largest testing areas. These testing locations are: BOURBON on Yucca Flat, HOUSTON on Central Pahute Mesa, and TYBO on Western Pahute Mesa. One-dimensional stochastic tritium transport simulations were performed for the three pathlines using the Monte Carlo method with Latin hypercube sampling. For the BOURBON and TYBO pathlines, sources of tritium from other tests located along the same pathline were included in the simulations. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the transport model to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the geologic model, the rates of groundwater flow, the tritium source, and the transport parameters. Tritium concentration predictions were found to be mostly sensitive to the regional geology in controlling the horizontal and vertical position of transport pathways. The simulated concentrations are also sensitive to matrix diffusion, an important mechanism governing the migration of tritium in fractured carbonate and volcanic rocks. Source term concentration uncertainty is most important near the test locations and decreases in importance as the travel distance increases. The uncertainty on groundwater flow rates is as important as that on matrix diffusion at downgradient locations. The risk assessment was performed to provide conservative and bounding estimates of the potential risks to human health and the environment from tritium in groundwater. Risk models were designed by coupling scenario-specific tritium intake with tritium dose models and cancer and genetic risk estimates using the Monte Carlo method. Estimated radiation doses received by individuals from chronic exposure to tritium, and the corre

  6. Pesticide risk perceptions and the differences between farmers and extensionists: Towards a knowledge-in-context model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ríos-González, Adriana, E-mail: adrianariosg@hotmail.com [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico) [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico); The Africa and Latin America Research Groups Network (GRAAL), Faculty of Medicine, Biostatistics Unit, Barcelona Autonomous University, Edificio M, 08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Jansen, Kees, E-mail: Kees.Jansen@wur.nl [Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen (Netherlands)] [Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen (Netherlands); Javier Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor, E-mail: hsanchez@ecosur.mx [Society, Culture and Health Academic Area, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n, Barrio de María Auxiliadora cp. 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas (Mexico); The Africa and Latin America Research Groups Network (GRAAL), Faculty of Medicine, Biostatistics Unit, Barcelona Autonomous University, Edificio M, 08193 Bellaterra (Spain)

    2013-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A growing body of literature analyzes farmer perceptions of pesticide risk, but much less attention has been given to differences in risk perception between farmers and technical experts. Furthermore, inconsistencies in knowledge have too easily been explained in terms of lack of knowledge rather than exploring the underlying reasons for particular forms of thinking about pesticide risks. By doing this, the division between expert and lay knowledge has been deepened rather than transcended. Objective: This study aims to understand differences and similarities among the perceptions of pesticide risks of farmers, farm workers, and technical experts such as extensionists, by applying a social science approach towards knowledge and risk attitudes. Methods: Semi-structured interviews and field observations were conducted to smallholders, farm workers, extensionists, health professionals and scientists involved in the use and handling of pesticides. Subsequently, a survey was carried out to quantify the farmers and extensionists' acceptance or rejection of typical assertions expressed previously in the semi-structured interviews. Results: Smallholders showed to gain knowledge from their own experiences and to adapt pesticides practices, which is a potential basis for transforming notions of pesticide safety and risk reduction strategies. Though extensionists have received formal education, they sometimes develop ideas deviating from the technical perspective. The risk perception of the studied actors appeared to vary according to their role in the agricultural labor process; they varied much less than expected according to their schooling level. Conclusions: Commitment to the technical perspective is not dramatically different for extensionists on the one hand and farmers as well as farm workers on the other hand. Ideas about a supposed lack of knowledge by farmers and the need of formal training are too much driven by a deficit model of knowledge. Further research on risk perceptions of pesticides and training of rural people will benefit from the development of a knowledge-in-context model. -- Highlights: • Researching perceptions of farmers' extensionists and other professionals. • Experts as well as farmers deviate from the technical perspective. • Blaming who is responsible for pesticide problems creates expert-lay division. • Qualitative and quantitative methods, not as complementary but integrated. • Knowledge-in-context model as an alternative to the knowledge-deficit model.

  7. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darby, John L.

    2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.

  8. Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, E.; Keisler, J.; Chon, H.

    2008-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

    In this project we have completed, or are in the process of, collecting and analyzing information on seven energy technologies – solar photovoltaics, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, electricity from biomass, liquid bio-fuels, and batteries – in regards to their potential impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have collected expert elicitations, relating U.S. government funding trajectories to probabilities of success. We then used MiniCAM, a technologically-detailed Integrated Assessnent Model to determine the impact on the marginal cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if the technologies were successful. Finally, we have performed initial analysis on portfolios of technologies. This project has partially supported nine papers, either published, under review, or under preparation for such journals as Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, Climatic Change, Management Science, and Transportation Research.

  9. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Chapman, C.; Logan, J.; Sumner, J.; Short, W.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  10. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M. [Joint Department of Physics, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton SM2 5PT (United Kingdom); Physics Department, Ipswich Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Ipswich IP4 5PD (United Kingdom); Department of Academic Radiotherapy, Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton SM2 5PT, United Kingdom and School of Radiotherapy, University of Milan, Milan 20122 (Italy); Department of Academic Radiotherapy, Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton SM2 5PT (United Kingdom); Centre for Vision Speech and Signal Processing, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

    2012-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.

  11. Estimating extinction risk under climate change: next-generation models simultaneously incorporate demography, dispersal, and biotic interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kissling, W. Daniel

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    interactions Estimating species-level extinction risk underin predicting species-level extinction risk under climateto assess extinction risk of select species under climate

  12. Coronary Risk Assessment by Point-Based vs. Equation-Based Framingham Models: Significant Implications for Clinical Care

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, William J.; Polansky, Jesse M.; John Boscardin, W.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Steinman, Michael A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hard Coronary Heart Disease: 10-year risk. Available at:framinghamheartstudy.org/risk/hrdcoronary.html. Accessed27. Reidenberg MM. Benefit/risk ratio of statins in primary

  13. Mathematics of Finance Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghosh, Joydeep

    . Shreve · Continuous Time Finance, by R. Merton . Martingale methods in financial modelling, by M. Musiela models Portfolio choice Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation - Monday, February 11 Duality methods - Monday behavioral finance models Ambiguity, loss aversion, robustness Derivative valuation - Monday, March 18

  14. Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs and Market Impact Costs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, John E.

    Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in the Presence of Convex Transaction Costs and Market Impact Costs John E. Mitchell Department of Mathematical Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY. Abstract The inclusion of transaction costs is an essential element of any realistic portfolio optimization

  15. Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oosterlee, Cornelis W. "Kees"

    Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios. Shashi Jain, where especially capital costs are known to be highly uncertain. Differ- ent nuclear reactor types uncertainties in the cost elements of a nuclear power plant, to provide an optimal portfolio of nuclear reactors

  16. On the method of optimal portfolio choice by cost-efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rüschendorf, Ludger

    On the method of optimal portfolio choice by cost-efficiency Ludger R¨uschendorf*, Viktor Wolf Freiburg, Germany Abstract We develop the method of optimal portfolio choice based on the concept of cost-efficiency class of cost-efficient payoffs. While the results for the cost-efficient payoff given so far

  17. MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships for the School of Film and Photography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dyer, Bill

    MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships for the School of Film and Photography The School-Bozeman School of Film and Photography, Attn: Portfolio/Audition Committee PO Box 173350 VCB 202 Bozeman, MT on the basis of the written statement, originality, creative energy, and relative accomplishment of the work

  18. "Catalyzing Action Towards Sustainability of Deltaic Systems with an Integrated Modeling Framework for Risk Assessment"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    -ecological systems undergoing change (Delta-SRES) 2. Develop and deliver a science-based delta sustainability framework for risk assessment and decision support (Delta-RADS) 3. Build an international repository of data

  19. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 20460 (United States)] [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 20460 (United States)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  20. Development of a total landed cost and risk analysis model for global strategic sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feller, Brian (Brian C.)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Total landed cost and supply chain risk analysis are methods that many companies use to assess strategic sourcing decisions. For this project, landed cost is defined as those costs associated with material movement from a ...

  1. PNNL: Codes Portfolio - 2015 Peer Review | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directed offOCHCO2:Introduction toManagementOPAM PolicyOfEnergyOutreachPNNL AdvancesPNNL: Codes Portfolio

  2. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 14-001

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041cloth DocumentationProductsAlternativeOperational ManagementDemand6 Department ofJ-16 PortfolioMod

  3. Fuel Cells & Renewable Portfolio Standards | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdf Flash2006-52.pdf0.pdfDepartment ofEnergy 3 Fuel Cell2|& Renewable Portfolio

  4. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Portfolio Manager | Open Energy

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnualPropertyd8c-a9ae-f8521cbb8489 No revision|LLC Place:EnergyLiteInformation Portfolio Manager

  5. Principal UncertaintiesPrincipal Uncertainties Their Representation in the Regional Portfolio ModelTheir Representation in the Regional Portfolio Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    % 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% #12;Page 5 9 Wholesale Electricity PricesWholesale Electricity

  6. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders.

  7. Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, L; Hobbs, Benjamin F; Norman, C S

    the social cost of carbon abatement by as much as 50%? in this setting with risk neutral investors1. Delay can lead to investment in dirty technology in hopes that future policies will favor existing coal plants, or to support of lobbying efforts designed...

  8. Modeling of Supply Chain Risk under Disruptions with Performance Measurement and Robustness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    and logistical networks, to transportation networks, to electric power networks, financial networks, Nagurney, Dong Vulnerabilities of Supply Chain Networks #12;This presentation is based on the paper with the same title in Managing Supply Chain Risk and Vulnerability: Tools and Methods for Supply Chain Decision

  9. Risk-Sensitive Control Under a Markov Modulated Denial-of-Service Attack Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    attacks against critical infrastructure such as power grids and industrial control systems (e.g., see, increasing effort has been placed in addressing the problem of risk and vulnerability assessment to malicious design. As these critical infrastructures become more interconnected and complex, solutions that ensure

  10. Optimal investment with counterparty risk: a default-density model approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Le Pennec, Erwan

    during the financial crisis. Key words: Counterparty risk, contagious loss or gain, density of default the contagious jump and investigated firstly by Jarrow and Yu [10]. For the credit derivative CDS, Brigo to a contagious loss when the asset is positively correlated with the counterparty, while the rise represents

  11. Optimal investment with counterparty risk: a default-density modeling approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pham, Huyên

    during the financial crisis. Key words: Counterparty risk, contagious loss or gain, density of default the contagious jump and investigated firstly by Jarrow and Yu [10]. For the credit derivative CDS, Brigo to a contagious loss when the asset is positively correlated with the counterparty, while the rise represents

  12. Application of the bioecological model and health belief model to self-reported health risk behaviors of adolescents in the united states

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fleary, Sasha A.

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    incorporates these three sources of risk-taking, however it lacks explanatory power. For this reason, this thesis focused on explaining risk perception of health risk behaviors (smoking cigarette, alcohol and marijuana use), and health risk behaviors...

  13. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic risk assessments using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Paez, T.L.; Brown, N.N.

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In most probabilistic risk assessments, there is a subset of accident scenarios that involves physical challenges to the system, such as high heat rates and/or accelerations. The system`s responses to these challenges may be complicated, and their prediction may require the use of long-running computer codes. To deal with the many scenarios demanded by a risk assessment, the authors have been investigating the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a fast-running estimation tool. They have developed a multivariate linear spline algorithm by extending previous ANN methods that use radial basis functions. They have applied the algorithm to problems involving fires, shocks, and vibrations. They have found that within the parameter range for which it is trained, the algorithm can simulate the nonlinear responses of complex systems with high accuracy. Running times per case are less than one second.

  14. 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

    2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

  15. The Value of Assessing Uncertainty in Oil and Gas Portfolio Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hdadou, Houda

    2013-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    It has been shown in the literature that the oil and gas industry deals with a substantial number of biases that impact project evaluation and portfolio performance. Previous studies concluded that properly estimating uncertainties...

  16. Appropriateness and feasibility of targeted diversification in a private equity portfolio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Browne, Kathleen R. (Kathleen Rose)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Diversification tools such as modem portfolio theory are used by institutional investors when making asset allocation decisions, which often result in an allocation to the private equity asset class. While some level of ...

  17. Unexploited Gains From International Diversification: Patterns Of Portfolio Holdings Around The World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Didier, Tatiana

    Using unique data on mutual fund portfolios with different investment scopes, we study the extent of international diversification. Mutual funds invest in a surprisingly limited number of stocks—about 100. The number of ...

  18. Managing a portfolio of real options : sequential exploration of dependent prospects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, James L.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the impact of sequential investment and active management on the value of a portfolio of real options. The options are assumed to be interdependent, in that exercise of any one is assumed to produce, in addition ...

  19. Venture Capitalists' Decision to Withdraw: The Role of Portfolio Configuration From a Real Options Lens

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Yong; Chi, Tailan

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When does a venture capital firm withdraw from an investment project prior to its completion? This study offers a real options view on this decision by examining the contingent effects of portfolio configuration. We explore how project withdrawal...

  20. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    except that certain small-hydro facilities owned by OregonMSW, and less than 1% is small hydro and ocean energy,8% geothermal, and 4% small hydro. Renewables Portfolio

  1. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast: Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Sharing Forward and Transfer Ownership

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  2. EPA ENERGY STAR Webcast- Portfolio Manager Office Hours, Focus Topic: Weather Data and Metrics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Portfolio Manager "Office Hours" is a live webinar that gives all users an opportunity to ask their questions directly to EPA in an open forum. In 2014, Office Hours will be held once a month. We...

  3. MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships for the School of Film and Photography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dyer, Bill

    MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships for the School of Film and Photography The School of Film and Photography expects to have scholarship monies on the basis of the written statement, originality, creative energy, and relative

  4. Extracting product opportunities from intellectual property portfolios : from patent to product idea

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cooper-Davis, Sarah

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Companies and research institutes maintain large intellectual property portfolios, which are considered company assets and require significant investments to maintain. This thesis looks at the potential to extract value ...

  5. Dynamic risk adjustment of prediction models using statistical process control methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chuo, John, 1969-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Introduction. Models that represent mathematical relationships between clinical outcomes and their predictors are useful to the decision making process in patient care. Many models, such as the score of neonatal physiology ...

  6. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS AND ITS POTENTIAL APPLICATION TO UTILITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ;#12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Mike Ringer Principal Author and Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager authored the sections on natural gas price risk and implementation issues, as well as Steven Ostrover.................................................................................. 9 Gas Price Risk

  7. Portfolio sire selection to maximize the utility of individual management and breeding goals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bloom, Andrew Scott

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PORTFOLIO SIRE SELECTION TO MAXIMIZE THE UTILITY OF INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT AND BREEDING GOALS A Thesis by ANDREW SCOTT BLOOM Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1988 Major Subject: Dairy Science PORTFOLIO SIRE SELECTION TO MAXIMIZE THE UTILITY OF INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT AND BREEDING GOALS A Thesis by ANDREW SCOTT BLOOM Approved as to style and content by: michael A...

  8. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Key, Thomas S [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power transfer potential for bringing renewable energy into the Southeast in response to a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors. This interim report examines how the commonly used EIA NEMS and EPRI NESSIE energy equilibrium models are considering such power transfers. Using regional estimates of capacity expansion and demand, a base case for 2008, 2020 and 2030 are compared relative to generation mix, renewable deployments, planned power transfers, and meeting RPS goals. The needed amounts of regional renewable energy to comply with possible RPS levels are compared to inter-regional transmission capacities to establish a baseline available for import into the Southeast and other regions. Gaps in the renewable generation available to meet RPS requirements are calculated. The initial finding is that the physical capability for transferring renewable energy into the SE is only about 10% of what would be required to meet a 20% RPS. Issues that need to be addressed in future tasks with respect to modeling are the current limitations for expanding renewable capacity and generation in one region to meet the demand in another and the details on transmission corridors required to deliver the power.

  9. Mathematics in Finance Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghosh, Joydeep

    . Martingale methods in ...nancial modelling, by M. Musiela and M. Rutkowski Theory of Asset Pricing, by G-Jacobi-Bellman equation Monday, February 13: Duality methods Monday, February 20: Optimal portfolio choice in incomplete ...nance Ambiguity, loss aversion Derivative valuation Monday, March 19: Derivative pricing Fundamentals

  10. Predicting risk for the appearance of melanoma.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meyskens, Frank L Jr; Ransohoff, David F

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for projecting the absolute risk of breast cancer. J NatlD, Gail MH, et al: Cancer risk prediction models: A workshopal model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications

  11. Paper presented at the 4th International Conference Working on Safety, Crete, Greece, 2008 Functional modeling for risk assessment of automation in a changing air

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Yuxiao

    Functional modeling for risk assessment of automation in a changing air traffic management environment R or to let automation act autonomously. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) provides a framework from ERASMUS automation. Various instantiations of a partial model resulting from the application

  12. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incinerator facility (east Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 4. Atmospheric dispersion and deposition modeling of emissions. Draft report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report constitutes a comprehensive site-specific risk assessment for the WTI incineration facility located in East Liverpool, OH. Volume IV describes the air dispersion model used to estimate air concentrations and particle deposition, as well as the results of the modeling exercise.

  13. Risk analysis via heterogeneous models of SCADA interconnecting Power Grids and Telco Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    for an electrical power distribution grid. The modeling techniques we discuss aim at providing a probabilistic propagation of disturbances and adverse events between Electrical infrastructures and Telco networks. Many demonstrate their applicability by modeling and #12;analyzing an actual SCADA system for an electrical power

  14. A 3-D mathematical model to identify organ-specific risks in rats during thermal stress

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - vention and management. computational modeling; core temperature; finite element method; multiorgan obtained from medical imaging and incorporates the key mechanisms of heat transfer during thermoregulation outcomes associated with heat stress is critical for effective management and mitigation of injury, which

  15. A Log-Robust Optimization Approach to Portfolio Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    the manager to take more risk than he is willing to accept. Furthermore ... We start our analysis by assuming all asset prices are independent; this assumption is ...

  16. A Risk Based Model for Quantifying the Impact ofInformation Quality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borek, Alexander; Parlikad, Ajith Kumar; Woodall, Philip; Tomasella, Maurizio

    2014-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

    & Networks 3,500 380 Million E Electric, Electronics, Connectivity & Networks 440 47 Million F Water 2,000 1.047 Billion £ Table 1: Summary of Case Study Backgrounds Figure 1: Research Methodology A questionnaire was given at the end of each of case... aspects and measures of overall utility. The criteria ensure that the model strikes the right balance between industrial applicability and rigor of the model output. Each criterion was evaluated on a five step scale from 1 (very high), 2 (high), 3 (neutral...

  17. Illinois SB 1987: the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    On January 12, 2009, Governor Rod Blagojevich signed SB 1987, the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law. The legislation establishes emission standards for new coal-fueled power plants power plants that use coal as their primary feedstock. From 2009-2015, new coal-fueled power plants must capture and store 50 percent of the carbon emissions that the facility would otherwise emit; from 2016-2017, 70 percent must be captured and stored; and after 2017, 90 percent must be captured and stored. SB 1987 also establishes a goal of having 25 percent of electricity used in the state to come from cost-effective coal-fueled power plants that capture and store carbon emissions by 2025. Illinois is the first state to establish a goal for producing electricity from coal-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To support the commercial development of CCS technology, the legislation guarantees purchase agreements for the first Illinois coal facility with CCS technology, the Taylorville Energy Center (TEC); Illinois utilities are required to purchase at least 5 percent of their electricity supply from the TEC, provided that customer rates experience only modest increases. The TEC is expected to be completed in 2014 with the ability to capture and store at least 50 percent of its carbon emissions.

  18. Modeling the dosimetry of organ-at-risk in head and neck IMRT planning: An intertechnique and interinstitutional study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lian, Jun, E-mail: jun-lian@med.unc.edu; Chera, Bhishamjit S.; Chang, Sha [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States); Yuan, Lulin, E-mail: lulin.yuan@duke.edu; Yoo, David P.; Yin, FangFang; Wu, Q. Jackie, E-mail: jackie.wu@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Ge, Yaorong [Department of Software and Information Systems, The University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223 (United States)] [Department of Software and Information Systems, The University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223 (United States)

    2013-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: To build a statistical model to quantitatively correlate the anatomic features of structures and the corresponding dose-volume histogram (DVH) of head and neck (HN) Tomotherapy (Tomo) plans. To study if the model built upon one intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique (such as conventional Linac) can be used to predict anticipated organs-at-risk (OAR) DVH of patients treated with a different IMRT technique (such as Tomo). To study if the model built upon the clinical experience of one institution can be used to aid IMRT planning for another institution. Methods: Forty-four Tomotherapy intensity modulate radiotherapy plans of HN cases (Tomo-IMRT) from Institution A were included in the study. A different patient group of 53 HN fixed gantry IMRT (FG-IMRT) plans was selected from Institution B. The analyzed OARs included the parotid, larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, and submandibular gland. Two major groups of anatomical features were considered: the volumetric information and the spatial information. The volume information includes the volume of target, OAR, and overlapped volume between target and OAR. The spatial information of OARs relative to PTVs was represented by the distance-to-target histogram (DTH). Important anatomical and dosimetric features were extracted from DTH and DVH by principal component analysis. Two regression models, one for Tomotherapy plan and one for IMRT plan, were built independently. The accuracy of intratreatment-modality model prediction was validated by a leave one out cross-validation method. The intertechnique and interinstitution validations were performed by using the FG-IMRT model to predict the OAR dosimetry of Tomo-IMRT plans. The dosimetry of OARs, under the same and different institutional preferences, was analyzed to examine the correlation between the model prediction and planning protocol. Results: Significant patient anatomical factors contributing to OAR dose sparing in HN Tomotherapy plans have been analyzed and identified. For all the OARs, the discrepancies of dose indices between the model predicted values and the actual plan values were within 2.1%. Similar results were obtained from the modeling of FG-IMRT plans. The parotid gland was spared in a comparable fashion during the treatment planning of two institutions. The model based on FG-IMRT plans was found to predict the median dose of the parotid of Tomotherapy plans quite well, with a mean error of 2.6%. Predictions from the FG-IMRT model suggested the median dose of the larynx, median dose of the brainstem and D2 of the brainstem could be reduced by 10.5%, 12.8%, and 20.4%, respectively, in the Tomo-IMRT plans. This was found to be correlated to the institutional differences in OAR constraint settings. Re-planning of six Tomotherapy patients confirmed the potential of optimization improvement predicted by the FG-IMRT model was correct. Conclusions: The authors established a mathematical model to correlate the anatomical features and dosimetric indexes of OARs of HN patients in Tomotherapy plans. The model can be used for the setup of patient-specific OAR dose sparing goals and quality control of planning results. The institutional clinical experience was incorporated into the model which allows the model from one institution to generate a reference plan for another institution, or another IMRT technique.

  19. Modeling of fission product release from HTR (high temperature reactor) fuel for risk analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolin, J.; Verfondern, K.; Dunn, T.; Kania, M.

    1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The US and FRG have developed methodologies to determine the performance of and fission product release from TRISO-coated fuel particles under postulated accident conditions. The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative comparison of US and FRG models. The models are those used by General Atomics (GA) and by the German Nuclear Research Center at Juelich (KFA/ISF). A benchmark calculation was performed for fuel temperatures predicted for the US Department of Energy sponsored Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (MHTGR). Good agreement in the benchmark calculations supports the on-going efforts to verify and validate the independently developed codes of GA and KFA/ISF. This work was performed under the US/FRG Umbrella Agreement for Cooperation on Gas Cooled Reactor Development. 6 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  20. High Cost/High Risk Components to Chalcogenide Molded Lens Model: Molding Preforms and Mold Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernacki, Bruce E.

    2012-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

    This brief report contains a critique of two key components of FiveFocal's cost model for glass compression molding of chalcogenide lenses for infrared applications. Molding preforms and mold technology have the greatest influence on the ultimate cost of the product and help determine the volumes needed to select glass molding over conventional single-point diamond turning or grinding and polishing. This brief report highlights key areas of both technologies with recommendations for further study.

  1. Estimating radiogenic cancer risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document presents a revised methodology for EPA`s estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures in light of information that has become available since the publication of BIER III, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. For most cancer sites, the risk model is one in which the age-specific relative risk coefficients are obtained by taking the geometric mean of coefficients derived from the atomic bomb survivor data employing two different methods for transporting risks from Japan to the U.S. (multiplicative and NIH projection methods). Using 1980 U.S. vital statistics, the risk models are applied to estimate organ-specific risks, per unit dose, for a stationary population.

  2. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1558744 The optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1558744 The optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and low-carbon R&D depends on the expected availability of negative emission technologies Derek M optimal portfolio of emissions abatement and low-carbon R&D depends on the expected availability

  3. SUMMARY OF AVC/H.264 LICENSE TERMS1 The AVC Patent Portfolio License is divided into two principal parts (see Diagram): (a)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodriguez, Carlos

    SUMMARY OF AVC/H.264 LICENSE TERMS1 The AVC Patent Portfolio License is divided into two principal and may not be relied upon for any purpose. The AVC Patent Portfolio License provides the actual terms of license on which users may rely. 2 Sections 2.1 and 2.6 of the AVC Patent Portfolio License 3 Sections 2

  4. 851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow 503-222-5161 Portland, Oregon 97204-1348 Executive Director 800-452-5161

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , because of difficulties with supporting software, the Portfolio Risk model is not currently available, a resource portfolio including replacement resources would be created using the Portfolio Risk model. However appearing in those L27aX futures where load exceeds average by similar magnitude of the energy loss

  5. TAYLOR, KINLEY BRITT. Identifying and Modeling Perceptions of Risk Factors in Hand Hygiene during Healthcare Operations. (Under the direction of Dr. David B. Kaber.)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaber, David B.

    ABSTRACT TAYLOR, KINLEY BRITT. Identifying and Modeling Perceptions of Risk Factors in Hand Hygiene, hand hygiene is considered to be one of the primary practices to prevent hospital acquired infections. However, hand hygiene compliance remains low in the vast majority of healthcare facilities, averaging

  6. The Economics of LEED-EB for Single Buildings and Building Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arny, M.

    P. O. Box 5425, Madison, WI 53705 1526 Chandler St., Madison, WI 53711 ph. 608.280.0255 fx. 608.255.7202 www.leonardoacademy.org 1 The Economics of LEED-EB for Single Buildings and Building Portfolios PRESENTED...?BY?MICHAEL?ARNY,?PRESIDENT? PRESENTATION DESCRIPTION This presentation covers the economics of LEED for Existing Buildings (EB) implementation in single buildings and for building portfolios. It is based on Leonardo Academy?s recently completed a survey of buildings that have earned...

  7. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585 (United States)] [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585 (United States)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated risk assessment that could assist in the EM prioritization efforts. (authors)

  8. Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(1), 601613, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems

  9. NOTICE OF RENEWABLE POWER STANDARDS (RPS) MEETING Renewable Portfolio Standard Plan Before Council

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    establishes minimum quantities of renewable energy resources that load serving entities must procure annually of renewables energy resources that load serving entities must procure annually through 2020. Each load servingNOTICE OF RENEWABLE POWER STANDARDS (RPS) MEETING Renewable Portfolio Standard Plan Before Council

  10. Essays on the Economics of Environmental Issues: The Environmental Kuznets Curve to Optimal Energy Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meininger, Aaron G.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    levelized generating costs per kWh. Expected portfolioThis is due to the high cost per kWh (low return) shown in2 costs are derived by multiplying 1kg of CO 2 per kWh for

  11. Portfolio of Tools, Faculty Pay-Merit Paradigm (updated August 2012) Type of Faculty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    Portfolio of Tools, Faculty Pay-Merit Paradigm (updated August 2012) Type of Faculty Salary-tenure review). This tool contrasts with "standard" equity (see other side). Cost-share: Central campus pays up. Rolling horizon of implementation; local units drive process. TBD: HR Redesign tools; periodicity of CCF

  12. Edito. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 3 Portfolio Lutte contre la capture baleinire dans l'ocan Austral . . p. 6

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 3 Portfolio Lutte contre la capture baleinière dans l'océan Austral . . p. 6 HISTOIRE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P.7 TABLEAU DE BORD L'océan au fil des siècles et des cartes . . . . . . . . p. 8 TABLEAU DE BORD � la conquête des mers... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p. 9 REP�RES Ces batailles navales qui ont

  13. RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION TEAM Milestones to Permit California Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION TEAM Milestones to Permit California Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy renewable energy resources. In November 2008, the CEC, DFG, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM the Renewable Energy Action Team (REAT) to address permitting issues associated with specific renewable energy

  14. Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville Power AdministrationField8, 2000ConsumptionInnovation PortalHanford Site WasteFramework

  15. Topics in Quantitative Risk Management Paul Embrechts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Embrechts, Paul

    Topics in Quantitative Risk Management Paul Embrechts ETH-Z¨urich 1. Basel II and its risk management consequences 2. An overview of credit risk models 3. Modelling extremes: use and limitations 4@math.ethz.ch Homepage: http://www.math.ethz.ch/embrechts #12;Lecture 1: Basel II and its risk management consequences

  16. FINANCIAL RISK MANAGER (FRM ) CERTIFICATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaudhuri, Sanjay

    Dec 2013 (Save 30%) (Save 15%) Module 1 Foundation of Risk Management & Quantitative Analysis 1086FINANCIAL RISK MANAGER (FRM® ) CERTIFICATION TRAINING PROGRAM 2014 JANUARY INTAKE 4 January to 10 1321 1552 Module 2 Financial Markets and Products & Valuation and Risk Models 1637 1985 2333 Module 3

  17. RISK AND INVESTMENT IN LIBERALIZED

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RISK AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT IN LIBERALIZED ELECTRICITY MARKETS Jacob Lemming Department during the period 2000­2003. The papers are centered around the theme Financial Risk in a Liberalized at Risk Management To be included in: Modelling Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets, edited by Derek

  18. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  19. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of a small set of comprehensive event trees and fault trees and recommendation for future work.

  20. Combustion Models in Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C. Tannous; A. Fessant

    2001-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    Combustion reaction kinetics models are used for the description of a special class of bursty Financial Time Series. The small number of parameters they depend upon enable financial analysts to predict the time as well as the magnitude of the jump of the value of the portfolio. Several Financial Time Series are analysed within this framework and applications are given.

  1. Achieving and sustaining an optimal product portfolio in the healthcare industry through SKU rationalization, complexity costing, and dashboards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilliard, David (David John)

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    After years of new product launches, and entry into emerging markets, Company X, a healthcare company, has seen its product portfolio proliferate and bring costly complexity into its operations. Today, Company X seeks to ...

  2. Illiquidity Premia in Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis of Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, and US Equity Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Andrew W.

    We establish a link between illiquidity and positive autocorrelation in asset returns among a sample of hedge funds, mutual funds, and various equity portfolios. For hedge funds, this link can be confirmed by comparing the ...

  3. Complex Dynamics in Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models with Boundedly Rational, Heterogeneous

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    their optimal portfolio and the market equilibrium, investors must compute future aggregate demands for assets] for critiques of equilibrium models and the response [4] by Robert Lucas. 3The Lucas [5] paper is one one

  4. An Exact Solution Approach for Portfolio Optimization Problems ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

    model and (ii) some of the trading restrictions of stock markets. ..... To model such constraints, we introduce r extra binary variables ?j ? {0,1},j = 1,...,r taking.

  5. Microsoft Word - FY14_Technology_Innovation_Portfolio_CX.docx

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    testing, energy-efficient lighting, rooftop heatingventilationair-conditioning units, demand response applications, computer modeling, and software development. BPA also...

  6. The NCI Radiation Research Program: Grant portfolio and radiation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    models (89 animals no human subject material, 21 use both) ­ 109 utilize rodent models ­ 2 have canine and R37s). Of those that utilize radiation: · 6 use tissue culture models only · 110 utilize animal subjects · 39 use human subjects or human subject materials only. #12;Dose and Dosimetry · The majority

  7. Including Alternative Resources in State Renewable Portfolio Standards: Current Design and Implementation Experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Bird, L.

    2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Currently, 29 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have instituted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). An RPS sets a minimum threshold for how much renewable energy must be generated in a given year. Each state policy is unique, varying in percentage targets, timetables, and eligible resources. This paper examines state experience with implementing renewable portfolio standards that include energy efficiency, thermal resources, and non-renewable energy and explores compliance experience, costs, and how states evaluate, measure, and verify energy efficiency and convert thermal energy. It aims to gain insights from the experience of states for possible federal clean energy policy as well as to share experience and lessons for state RPS implementation.

  8. This paper describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model the operational risk to information technology (IT)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neil, Martin

    to information technology (IT) infrastructure in financial and other institutions. We describe a methodology risk in other industries, especially the Aviation and Nuclear sectors, readily translate to operational infrastructure in financial institutions Martin neil1 Professor of Computer Science and Statistics, Queen Mary

  9. Research Portfolio Report Small Producers: Operations/Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    will reduce the recovery cost and increase the availability of low-permeability oil reserves. Results: * Modeled the targeted test site and conducted simulations that indicate...

  10. Estimating Overall Risk of Dam Failure: Practical Considerations in Combining Failure Probabilities ANCOLD 2003 Risk Workshop Page 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    combination of probabilities in quantitative risk analysis. Keywords: dam safety, risk analysis, risk for estimating probabilities in dam safety risk analysis both for assessing the risks associated with an existing in the risk analysis model can have a significant influence on the magnitudes of key inputs to decisions about

  11. RUIN PROBLEM, OPERATIONAL RISK AND HOW FAST STOCHASTIC PROCESSES MIX

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Embrechts, Paul

    in the finer analysis of ac­ tuarial risk models. One of the main reasons being the growing importance the area of Operational Risk (OpRisk). In the wake of quantitative modeling of market and credit risk and quantitative judgment is called for. In this paper, we concentrate on one piece of the more quantitative OpRisk

  12. Validation of mathematical models for the prediction of organs-at-risk dosimetric metrics in high-dose-rate gynecologic interstitial brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damato, Antonio L.; Viswanathan, Akila N.; Cormack, Robert A. [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States)] [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States)

    2013-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: Given the complicated nature of an interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy treatment plan, the use of a quantitative tool to evaluate the quality of the achieved metrics compared to clinical practice would be advantageous. For this purpose, predictive mathematical models to predict the D{sub 2cc} of rectum and bladder in interstitial gynecologic brachytherapy are discussed and validated.Methods: Previous plans were used to establish the relationship between D2cc and the overlapping volume of the organ at risk with the targeted area (C0) or a 1-cm expansion of the target area (C1). Three mathematical models were evaluated: D{sub 2cc}=?*C{sub 1}+? (LIN); D{sub 2cc}=?– exp(–?*C{sub 0}) (EXP); and a mixed approach (MIX), where both C{sub 0} and C{sub 1} were inputs of the model. The parameters of the models were optimized on a training set of patient data, and the predictive error of each model (predicted D{sub 2cc}? real D{sub 2cc}) was calculated on a validation set of patient data. The data of 20 patients were used to perform a K-fold cross validation analysis, with K = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 20.Results: MIX was associated with the smallest mean prediction error <6.4% for an 18-patient training set; LIN had an error <8.5%; EXP had an error <8.3%. Best case scenario analysis shows that an error ?5% can be achieved for a ten-patient training set with MIX, an error ?7.4% for LIN, and an error ?6.9% for EXP. The error decreases with the increase in training set size, with the most marked decrease observed for MIX.Conclusions: The MIX model can predict the D{sub 2cc} of the organs at risk with an error lower than 5% with a training set of ten patients or greater. The model can be used in the development of quality assurance tools to identify treatment plans with suboptimal sparing of the organs at risk. It can also be used to improve preplanning and in the development of real-time intraoperative planning tools.

  13. Enterprise Risk Management Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayden, Nancy J.

    Enterprise Risk Management Program DRAFT Introduction to Enterprise Risk Management at UVM 1 #12;Enterprise Risk Management Program DRAFT What is Enterprise Risk Management? Enterprise risk management governance, and accountability · Facilitates effective management of the uncertainty and associated risks

  14. Risk Assessment Risk communication 1997

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hung, Shih-Hao

    · 1 1997 2003 WHO #12;6060 NTU Alumni Bimonthly No.87 Fault tree Event tree [2] Nuclear reactor of nuclear power plants. Reliability Engineering and Safety System, 52:297-314. [4] Jonas Hagmann. 2012. Fukushima: probing the analytical and epistemological limits of risk analysis. Journal of Risk Research. 15

  15. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard (Report Summary) (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  16. Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, J.; Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

  17. Multi-Year Analysis of Renewable Energy Impacts in California: Results from the Renewable Portfolio Standards Integration Cost Analysis; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Shiu, H.; Kirby, B.; Jackson, K.

    2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, Senate Bill 1078) requires the state's investor-owned utilities to obtain 20% of their energy mix from renewable generation sources. To facilitate the imminent increase in the penetration of renewables, the California Energy Commission (CEC), in support of the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC), initiated a study of integration costs in the context of RPS implementation. This effort estimated the impact of renewable generation in the regulation and load-following time scales and calculated the capacity value of renewable energy sources using a reliability model. The analysis team, consisting of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the California Wind Energy Collaborative (CWEC), performed the study in cooperation with the California Independent System Operator (CaISO), the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), and Southern California Edison (SCE). The study was conducted over three phases and was followed by an analysis of a multi-year period. This paper presents results from the multi-year analysis and the Phase III recommendations.

  18. Short Sales in Log-Robust Portfolio Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2008-12-24T23:59:59.000Z

    sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model .... We analyze the case of independent assets in Section 2. We extend ...

  19. Performance-based regularization in mean-CVaR portfolio ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2014-11-03T23:59:59.000Z

    fits the linear model y = X?. Ridge regression corresponds to using the .... The analysis requires a non-trivial extension of the theory of M-estimators as the ...

  20. Market Based Risk Mitigation: Risk Management vs. Risk Avoidance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Market Based Risk Mitigation: Risk Management vs. Risk Avoidance Shmuel Oren University of the critical infrastructures in our society. Risk assessment and systematic consideration of risk in the design knowledge for engineers, like physics for instance, consideration of risk has penetrated all engineering

  1. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  2. The sensitivity of the statistical procedures utilizing the Hartley-Sielken models to do low dose cancer risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sabbagh, Mayna

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    is The value of R is known from the simulation procedure. The ratio R/R is considered as opposed to R/R, since R seldom exceeds R by very much but does tend to considerably underestimate R, especially in the case of low dose nonlinearity. The average ratio..., n ): (R/R. )/n i=1 is much more sensitive to this underestimation than n E (R. /R) /n i=1 i Even though most of the discussion in the body of the paper is in terms of the average ratios, the individual estimates of the summary risk...

  3. Competence-Driven Project Portfolio Selection, Scheduling and Staff Assignment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gutjahr, Walter

    ensure an effective and efficient use of substantial resources. Research and development (R&D) investment) Department of Business Administration, University of Vienna, Bruenner Str. 72, 1210 Vienna, Austria (3) E-Commerce Competence Center, Donau-City Str. 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria Abstract: This paper presents a new model

  4. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.

  5. Page 1 of 2 Risk Management March 2012 Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 of 2 Risk Management March 2012 Risk Management Supervisor's Vehicle Incident Report-Employee Volunteer Drivers License No. State of Issue UO Certification Date UO Driver Training Date Vehicle Information: License No. Make Model Year UO Vehicle # Motorpool Outside Rental Personal Vehicle Incident

  6. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate...

  7. A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market Michael Coulon , Warren B. Powell, Ronnie Sircar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Powell, Warren B.

    to the challenges of electricity price modeling. Given the growth of intermit- tent wind energy in Texas Accepted 20 May 2013 Available online 15 June 2013 JEL classification: C60 C80 G12 G13 Q40 Keywords: Electricity market Structural model Spikes Forward prices Spread options Hedging Energy companies

  8. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Key, Thomas S [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); Deb, Rajat [LCG Consulting

    2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, not including Florida, is approximately 24% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient long distant transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. It shows that development of wind resources will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  9. Attachment J-16 Portfolio Management Task Order 13-003 Revision 1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041cloth DocumentationProductsAlternativeOperational ManagementDemand6 Department ofJ-16 Portfolio

  10. The Dempster-Schafer Theory of Belief Functions for Managing Uncertainties: An Introduction and Fraud Risk Assessment Illustration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.; Gao, Lei

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    fraud risk assessment formula for a simplified version of a model developed by Srivastava, Mock, and Turner (2007). In our formulation, fraud risk is the normalized product of four risks: risk that management has incentives to commit fraud, risk...

  11. A comparative study on the risk of second primary cancers in out-of-field organs associated with radiotherapy of localized prostate carcinoma using Monte Carlo-based accelerator and patient models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Athar, Basit; Xu, X. George [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02108 and Department of Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180 (United States)

    2010-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: A physician's decision regarding an ideal treatment approach (i.e., radiation, surgery, and/or hormonal) for prostate carcinoma is traditionally based on a variety of metrics. One of these metrics is the risk of radiation-induced second primary cancer following radiation treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the significance of second cancer risks in out-of-field organs from 3D-CRT and IMRT treatments of prostate carcinoma compared to baseline cancer risks in these organs. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations were performed using a detailed medical linear accelerator model and an anatomically realistic adult male whole-body phantom. A four-field box treatment, a four-field box treatment plus a six-field boost, and a seven-field IMRT treatment were simulated. Using BEIR VII risk models, the age-dependent lifetime attributable risks to various organs outside the primary beam with a known predilection for cancer were calculated using organ-averaged equivalent doses. Results: The four-field box treatment had the lowest treatment-related second primary cancer risks to organs outside the primary beam ranging from 7.3x10{sup -9} to 2.54x10{sup -5}%/MU depending on the patients age at exposure and second primary cancer site. The risks to organs outside the primary beam from the four-field box and six-field boost and the seven-field IMRT were nearly equivalent. The risks from the four-field box and six-field boost ranged from 1.39x10{sup -8} to 1.80x10{sup -5}%/MU, and from the seven-field IMRT ranged from 1.60x10{sup -9} to 1.35x10{sup -5}%/MU. The second cancer risks in all organs considered from each plan were below the baseline risks. Conclusions: The treatment-related second cancer risks in organs outside the primary beam due to 3D-CRT and IMRT is small. New risk assessment techniques need to be investigated to address the concern of radiation-induced second cancers from prostate treatments, particularly focusing on risks to organs inside the primary beam.

  12. Risk assessment in environmental management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asante-Duah, D.K.

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This book is a straightforward exposition of US EPA-based procedures for the risk assessment and risk management of contaminated land, interwoven with discussions on some of the key fundamentals on the fate and transport of chemicals in the environment and the toxic action of environmental chemicals. The book is logically structured, commencing with a general overview of the principles of risk assessment and the interface with environmental legislation. There follows an introduction to environmental fate and transport, modeling, toxicology and uncertainty analysis, and a discussion of the elements of a risk assessment (site characterization, exposure analysis, toxic action and risk characterization), intake of a chemical with its environmental concentration and activity-related parameters such as inhalation rate and exposure time. The book concludes with a discussion on the derivation of risk-based action levels and remediation goals.

  13. Risk Aversion in Inventory Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Xin

    Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. ...

  14. Broccoli Reduces The Risk of Splenetic Fever! The use of induction and falsifiability in statistics and model selection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William M Briggs

    2006-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The title, a headline, and a typical one, from a newspaper's "Health & Wellness" section, usually written by a reporter who has just read a medical journal, can only be the result of an inductive argument, which is an argument from known contingent premisses to the unknown. What are the premisses and what is unknown for this headline and what does it mean to statistics? The importance--and rationality--of inductive arguments and their relation to the frequently invoked, but widely and poorly misunderstood, notion of `falsifiability' are explained in the context of statistical model selection. No probability model can be falsified, and no hope for model buidling should be sought in that concept.

  15. Risk aggregation in Solvency II: How to converge the approaches of the internal models and those of the standard formula?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of the standard formula? Laurent Devineau Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Laboratoire de Science the Solvency II economic capital: the use of a standard formula or the use of an internal model (global demonstrate that the standard formula can be considered as a first order approximation of the result

  16. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  17. Risk Without Return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goldberg, Lisa R.; Mahmoud, Ola

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and Mitra, I. (2010). Extreme risk analysis. The Journal offrom the fact that the risk parity strategy was diversifiedboth in capital and in risk weights. Further research into

  18. Section 10 (cont.): More Risk Management Concepts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2014-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Dec 4, 2014 ... In this lesson we will continue our discussion of risk management concepts. Specifically, we will look at several models for loss random.

  19. Global Warming, endogenous risk and irreversibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Anthony C.; Narain, Urvashi

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The economics of global warming, Institute for InternationalEconomic Models of Global Warming, Cambridge, Mass. MITstochastic losses from global warming, Risk Analysis 16(2):

  20. Risk Dynamics?An Analysis for the Risk of Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Tailin

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Is Quantitative Risk Assessment?" Risk Analysis, Aubrey,quantitative methods of how people do science, engineering and risk analysisthe Quantitative Definition of Risk." Risk Analysis, 1(1),

  1. Enterprise Risk Management Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayden, Nancy J.

    Enterprise Risk Management Program Guide to Risk Assessment & Response August 16, 2012 #12; i ...........26 List of Figures Figure 1: The Risk Management Process.......................................................................................................12 #12; 1 Overview The risk management process--of identifying, analyzing, evaluating

  2. Credit Risk Analyst

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The incumbent in this position will serve as a Credit Risk Analyst in the Transacting and Credit Risk Management department of the Office of Risk Management. The Transacting and Credit Risk...

  3. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  4. Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Key, Thomas S [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Deb, Rajat [LCG Consulting

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, including Florida, is approximately 32% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. We found that significant wind energy transfers, at the level of 30-60 GW, are expected to be economic in case of federal RPC or CO2 policy. Development of wind resources will depend not only on the available transmission capacity and required balancing resources, but also on electricity supply and demand factors.

  5. Risk Management, Mar 2012 Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Management, Mar 2012 Risk Management Conditions of Volunteer Service (Please send completed form to the Office of Risk Management) riskmanagement@uoregon.edu Fax: 541-346-7008 As a volunteer Tort Claims Act, ORS 30.260-300, and Oregon Department of Administrative Services Risk Management

  6. CANCER RISKS AM I AT RISK?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hardy, Christopher R.

    CANCER RISKS AM I AT RISK? It is often hard to explain why one person develops cancer and another does not. There are risk factors that could increase a person's likelihood of developing cancer, however, some people may have many of these risk factors and never get cancer. When thinking about your

  7. The department maintains for each student a portfolio of assignments that received a failing grade in the courses identified for each outcome. In addition, the department

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Eduardo

    mechanics; transportation; and environmental engineering). Student portfolios will include failing grades: Environmental Science and Engineering CEG 3011C: Soil Mechanics CES 3102: Analysis of Structures TTE 4004 OF CIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL & GEOMATICS ENGINEERING #12;COMMUNICATION (Written Communication; Oral

  8. A portfolio analysis of grain options and futures in hedging context with a comparison of Quadratic Programming, MOTAD and Target MOTAD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferdinandsen, John

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF GRAIN OPTIONS AND FUTURES IN A HEDGING CONTEXT WITH A COMPARISON OF QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING, MOTAD AND TARGET MOTAD A THESIS JOHN FERDINANDSEN Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A8dd University... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December, 1988 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics A PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF GRAIN OPTIONS AND FUTURES IN A HEDGING CONTEXT WITH A COMPARISON OF QUADRATIC PROGRfaiIING, MOTAD...

  9. Valuing Groundwater Services and Water Portfolio in Irrigated Agriculture with a Hedonic Pricing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukherjee, Monobina

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2647-2668. Surface and Groundwater. 2012. U.S. EnvironmentalEstimating the Value of Groundwater in Irrigation, SelectedAgricultural adaptation to groundwater and climate. NBER

  10. Valuing Groundwater Services and Water Portfolio in Irrigated Agriculture with a Hedonic Pricing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukherjee, Monobina

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Impact of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture inimpact of climate change on irrigated agriculture inimpacts of climate change in agriculture, it is essential to

  11. Loss-based risk measures Rama CONT1,3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    robustness of risk estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 Sensitivity analysis of risk estimators-7Oct2011 #12;A main focus of quantitative modeling in finance has been to measure the risk of financialLoss-based risk measures Rama CONT1,3 , Romain DEGUEST 2 and Xue Dong HE3 1) Laboratoire de

  12. artery risk development: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stephan 33 Risk Assessment For Spreadsheet Developments: Choosing Which Models to Audit CERN Preprints Summary: Errors in spreadsheet applications and models are alarmingly...

  13. Abstract--In Probabilistic Risk Management, risk is characterized by two quantities: the magnitude (or severity) of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Abstract-- In Probabilistic Risk Management, risk is characterized by two quantities scale: urban risks management models belong to self-organized criticality theory. We chose multiagent of important groups of them. Index Terms-- Risk management, self-organized criticality, multiagent systems

  14. Risk Management Strategy Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edinburgh, University of

    Risk Management Strategy Introduction 1. The risk of adverse consequences is inherent in all activity. Dynamic enterprise will inevitably create new risks. Risk management is about ensuring that all significant relevant risks are understood and prioritised as part of normal management

  15. Carrots and Sticks: A Comprehensive Business Model for the Successful Achievement of Energy Efficiency Resource Standards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Satchwell, Andrew

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    business model for energy efficiency Historically, utilities in Arizona have been allowed to recover prudently incurred EE program costs;costs. We presented a comprehensive business model to achieve aggressive energyCosts Net Benefits Figure 1 Flowchart for analyzing impacts of portfolio of energy efficiency programs on stakeholders Model Inputs Business-

  16. Results of a Technical Review of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program's R&D Portfolio

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Marilyn A [ORNL

    2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) is a multi-agency planning and coordinating entity, led by the U.S. Department of Energy that aims to accelerate the development and facilitate the adoption of technologies to address climate change. In late 2005, CCTP asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Energetics Incorporated to organize and coordinate a review of the CCTP R&D portfolio using structured workshops. Each workshop focused on one of CCTP's six strategic goals: 1.Reduce emissions from energy end-use and infrastructure 2.Reduce emissions from energy supply 3.Capture and sequester carbon dioxide 4.Reduce emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG) 5.Improve capabilities to measure and monitor GHG emissions 6.Bolster basic science contributions to technology development To promote meaningful dialogue while ensuring broad coverage, a group of broadly experienced professionals with expertise in fields relevant to each CCTP goal were asked to participate in the portfolio reviews and associated workshops. A total of 75 experts participated in the workshops; 60 of these participants represented non-Federal organizations. This report summarizes the findings of the workshops and the results of the Delphi assessment of the CCTP R&D portfolio.

  17. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  18. The Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over Our InstagramStructureProposedPAGESafetyTed5,Audit ReportTheThe Energy Data

  19. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  20. BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PL LDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Florida, University of

    BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PL LDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A R RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDIN T PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BUILDING A RISK MANAGEM

  1. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are...

  2. Risk Analyst Workbench Design and Architecture CREATE REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Hai

    and analysis capabilities for the risk analysis and decision analysis steps of the CREATE Terrorism Modeling-0112 August 31, 2005 Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events University of Southern/2/2006 Executive Summary The CREATE Risk Analyst Workbench (RAW) is a software tool that provides modeling

  3. The Costs and Benefits of Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards: Reviewing Experience to Date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, Jenny; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Weaver, Samantha; Flores, Francisco; Kuskova-Burns, Ksenia; Wiser, Ryan

    2014-03-12T23:59:59.000Z

    More than half of U.S. states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in place and have collectively deployed approximately 46,000 MW of new renewable energy capacity through year-end 2012. Most of these policies have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS benefits and costs is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. A key aspect of this study is the comprehensive review of existing RPS cost and benefit estimates, in addition to an examination of the variety of methods used to calculate such estimates. Based on available data and estimates reported by utilities and regulators, this study summarizes RPS costs to date. The study considers how those costs may evolve going forward, given scheduled increases in RPS targets and cost containment mechanisms incorporated into existing policies. The report also summarizes RPS benefits estimates, based on published studies for individual states, and discusses key methodological considerations.

  4. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  5. Supporting Solar Power in Renewables Portfolio Standards: Experience from the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Holt, Edward

    2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Among the available options for encouraging the increased deployment of renewable electricity, renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have become increasingly popular. The RPS is a relatively new policy mechanism, however, and experience with its use is only beginning to emerge. One key concern that has been voiced is whether RPS policies will offer adequate support to a wide range of renewable energy technologies and applications or whether, alternatively, RPS programs will favor a small number of the currently least-cost forms of renewable energy. This report documents the design of and early experience with state-level RPS programs in the United States that have been specifically tailored to encourage a wider diversity of renewable energy technologies, and solar energy in particular. As shown here, state-level RPS programs specifically designed to support solar have already proven to be an important, albeit somewhat modest, driver for solar energy deployment, and those impacts are projected to continue to build in the coming years. State experience in supporting solar energy with RPS programs is mixed, however, and full compliance with existing requirements has not been achieved. The comparative experiences described herein highlight the opportunities and challenges of applying an RPS to specifically support solar energy, as well as the importance of policy design details to ensuring that program goals are achieved.

  6. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, N,

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic ...

  7. Decision Support and Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and emergency management officials during the planning, incident management preparedness, and response phasesDecision Support and Risk Management CVMDM: Community Vaccination and Mass Dispensing Model What and the performance of prophylaxis supply logistics and PODs. Decision and Information Sciences Division Decision

  8. Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk Forum 2012 A Joint Program with LA RIMS Education Day Rethinking Catastrophic Risk in Risk Management: Earthquake-Related Challenges Featuring: Keynote Speaker Dr. Frank Beuthin, Willis Group Holdings Plc. Yohei Miyamoto, Aon Risk Solutions Curtis deVera, Marsh

  9. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Churchill, Susannah; Deyette, Jeff; Holt, Ed

    2008-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have proliferated at the state level in the United States since the late 1990s. In combination with Federal tax incentives, state RPS requirements have emerged as one of the most important drivers of renewable energy capacity additions. The focus of most RPS activity in the U.S. has been within the states. Nonetheless, the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate have, at different times, each passed versions of a Federal RPS; a Federal RPS, however, has not yet been signed into law. The design of an RPS can and does vary, but at its heart an RPS simply requires retail electricity suppliers (also called load-serving entities, or LSEs) to procure a certain minimum quantity of eligible renewable energy. An RPS establishes numeric targets for renewable energy supply, applies those targets to retail electricity suppliers, and seeks to encourage competition among renewable developers to meet the targets in a least-cost fashion. RPS purchase obligations generally increase over time, and retail suppliers typically must demonstrate compliance on an annual basis. Mandatory RPS policies are backed by various types of compliance enforcement mechanisms, and many--but not all--such policies include the trading of renewable energy certificates (RECs). Renewables portfolio standards are a relatively recent addition to the renewable energy policy landscape, and these policies continue to evolve. Keeping up with the design, early experience, and projected impacts of these programs is a challenge. This report seeks to fill this need by providing basic, factual information on RPS policies in the United States. It focuses on state-level initiatives, though a later section briefly discusses Federal developments as well. The report does not cover municipal-level renewable energy goals, unless required by state law. Similarly, this report focuses on mandatory state RPS requirements, though it also touches on non-binding renewable energy goals, especially when those goals are developed by state law or regulation. This report is the first of what is envisioned to be an ongoing series; as such, it concentrates on key recent developments, while also providing basic information on historical RPS experience and design. The report begins with an overview of state RPS policies: where they have been developed, when, and with what design features. Though most RPS programs are still in their infancy, the report summarizes the early impacts of these policies on renewable energy development, and provides a forecast of possible future impacts. It then turns to the implications of the growing trend towards solar and/or distributed generation set-asides within state RPS programs. Next, the report highlights state RPS compliance levels, enforcement actions, and cost impacts, as well as key developments in REC markets. Finally, the report provides a brief overview of Federal RPS proposals.

  10. Introduction Literature Review Supply Chain Network Model Simulation Studies Managerial Insights and Conclusions Supply Chain Outsourcing Under Exchange Rate Risk and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    generally reduces production costs. From 2000 to 2007, 70 percent of U.S. non-oil import growth was driven Foreign exchange risk is consistently considered to be on the list of top concerns of supply chain executives. A study conducted by The Economist, which surveyed 500 global company executives

  11. Assessment of the effectiveness of the advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (apram) as a decision support tool for construction projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imbeah, William Kweku Ansah

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    to determine the best construction system that can minimize the expected cost of failure. A risk analysis performed using a more standard approach yielded an expected cost of failure that is almost eight times the expected cost of failure yielded by APRAM...

  12. Builtin vs. auxiliary detection of extrapolation risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Munson, Miles Arthur; Kegelmeyer, W. Philip,

    2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A key assumption in supervised machine learning is that future data will be similar to historical data. This assumption is often false in real world applications, and as a result, prediction models often return predictions that are extrapolations. We compare four approaches to estimating extrapolation risk for machine learning predictions. Two builtin methods use information available from the classification model to decide if the model would be extrapolating for an input data point. The other two build auxiliary models to supplement the classification model and explicitly model extrapolation risk. Experiments with synthetic and real data sets show that the auxiliary models are more reliable risk detectors. To best safeguard against extrapolating predictions, however, we recommend combining builtin and auxiliary diagnostics.

  13. New techniques in project portfolio management don't stifle innovation with excessive phasing and gates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Cameron (Cameron Ardell Mayhew)

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Managing multiple ideas, candidate initiatives and in-flight projects across diverse business units is a large challenge for major organizations. Overseeing global demand for projects as well as resource needs, risks, ...

  14. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 3

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  15. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 7

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  16. Grand Challenge Portfolio: Driving Innovations in Industrial Energy Efficiency, January 2011- pg 5

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    High-risk, high-value research and development focused on energy efficiency that industry would not typically pursue without federal leadership and support by public-private partnership.

  17. Essays on the Economics of Environmental Issues: The Environmental Kuznets Curve to Optimal Energy Portfolios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meininger, Aaron G.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model to estimate thecovariances. By applying the GARCH model, the authors sought

  18. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 4. Atmospheric dispersion and deposition modeling of emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Contents: Introduction; Technical Description of ISC-COMPDEP; Modeling Input Parameters; Discussion of Modeling Results; Summary and Major Assumptions; and References.

  19. Robustifying Convex Risk Measures: A Non-Parametric Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Wozabal

    2011-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Nov 13, 2011 ... ... portfolio selection problems with respect to ambiguity in the distribution of the random asset losses. ... Citation: Technical Report, 11/2011.

  20. Rangeland Risk Management for Texans: Types of Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    White, Larry D.; Hanselka, C. Wayne

    2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Types of risk associated with range ecosystems include climatic, biological, financial and political risks. These risks are explained so that managers can know how to handle them....

  1. Risk Dynamics?An Analysis for the Risk of Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Tailin

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Bookstaber, R. (1999). "Risk Management in ComplexG. E. (2004). "How Useful Is Quantitative Risk Assessment?"Risk Analysis, Aubrey, A. (2010). "Preventing Diabetes:

  2. Finance and Risk & ENGINEERING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aronov, Boris

    Finance and Risk & ENGINEERING Charles S. Tapiero Department Head and Morton and Angela Topfer · Corporate Finance and Financial Markets · Computational Finance · Risk Finance · Technology and Algorithmic Finance A Collective Leadership Students participation #12;RESEARCH STRENGTHS · Black Swans and Fragility

  3. A Drop in the Bucket or a Pebble in a Pond: Commercial Building Partners’ Replication of EEMs Across Their Portfolios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.; Baechler, Michael C.; Dillon, Heather E.

    2014-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This study presents findings from questionnaire and interview data investigating replication efforts of Commercial Building Partnership (CBP) partners that worked directly with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL partnered with 12 organizations on new and retrofit construction projects as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) CBP program. PNNL and other national laboratories collaborate with industry leaders that own large portfolios of buildings to develop high performance projects for new construction and renovation. This project accelerates market adoption of commercially available energy saving technologies into the design process for new and upgraded commercial buildings. The labs provide assistance to the partners’ design teams and make a business case for energy investments. From the owner’s perspective, a sound investment results in energy savings based on corporate objectives and design. Through a feedback questionnaire, along with personal interviews, PNNL gathered qualitative and quantitative information relating to replication efforts by each organization. Data through this process were analyzed to provide insight into two primary research areas: 1) CBP partners’ replication efforts of technologies and approaches used in the CBP project to the rest of the organization’s building portfolio (including replication verification), and, 2) the market potential for technology diffusion into the total U.S. commercial building stock, as a direct result of the CBP entire program.

  4. Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilmers, Chris

    or where many species are thought to be at imminent risk of extinction. However, these strategies may identify such areas for the world's mammals using latent extinction risk, the discrepancy between a species' current extinction risk and that predicted from models on the basis of biological traits. Species

  5. INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chauhan, Sanjay S.

    on the topic of uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis the reader is referred to Morgan to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting

  6. Math 576: Quantitative Risk Management lih@math.wsu.edu

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Haijun

    1 Factor Models 2 Principal Component Analysis Haijun Li Math 576: Quantitative Risk Management WeekMath 576: Quantitative Risk Management Haijun Li lih@math.wsu.edu Department of Mathematics Washington State University Week 6 Haijun Li Math 576: Quantitative Risk Management Week 6 1 / 24 #12;Outline

  7. Sandia Energy - Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment Home Climate & Earth Systems WaterEnergy Nexus Water Monitoring & Treatment Technology Security Risk Assessment Security Risk Assessmentcwdd2015-05-04T21:...

  8. Subjective Risk, Confidence, and Ambiguity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Traeger, Christian P.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Paper 1103) Subjective Risk, Confidence, and Ambiguityby author(s). Subjective Risk, Con?dence, and Ambiguity ?567. Ellsberg, D. (1961), ‘Risk, ambiguity and the savage

  9. Essays in time and risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sprenger, Charles

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    4.4.1 Risk Attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3.1 Additional Risk Preference Measures . . . . . . . .An Endowment Effect for Risk: Experimental Tests of

  10. Learning and risk aversion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oyarzun, Carlos

    2009-06-02T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays on learning and risk aversion. In the first essay we consider how learning may lead to risk averse behavior. A learning rule is said to be risk averse if it is expected to add more probability to an action...

  11. Livestock Risk Protection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Bill; Bennett, Blake; Jones, Diana

    2008-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    risk insurance with an ending date of coverage that meets their risk management objectives. Feeder cattle producers may want the end date of coverage to match the William Thompson, Blake Bennett and DeDe Jones* Figure 1: Livestock Risk Protection...

  12. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  13. Risk Mathematics and Quantum Games on Quantum Risk Structures - A Nuclear War Scenario Game

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlos Pedro Gonçalves

    2012-11-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantum game theory is combined with risk mathematics' formalism to provide an approach to evolutionary scenario analysis. The formalism is addressed in its general form and is then applied to an extreme risks modelling case, to model a coevolving dynamical web of systemic situations representing the evolution of the regional tensions between two countries with nuclear weapons. The model's results are addressed regarding the potential for regional nuclear conflict to take place, and how evolutionary scenario analysis may contribute to nuclear war threat assessment and dynamical risk analysis. A final discussion is provided in what regards risk mathematics based on the evolutionary approach to risk assessement resulting from the combination of quantum game theory, morphic web representations and scenario analysis.

  14. Value or Growth? Pricing of Idiosyncratic Cash Flow Risk with Heterogeneous Beliefs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jhang, Ho Gyu

    2014-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

    the relation between average share ratios and returns that are driven by share ratios. Lower-left shows average share ratios of decile portfolios. Lower-right shows the price elasticity with respect to the cash flow alongside decile portfolios... that are driven by share ratios. Lower-left shows average share ratios of decile portfolios. Lower-right shows the price elasticity with respect to the cash flow alongside decile portfolios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 ix LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 4.1 Summary...

  15. Reduced updated version forthcoming in Energy Risk COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION FOR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brigo, Damiano

    Reduced updated version forthcoming in Energy Risk COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION FOR ENERGY by some important companies during the last years, especially in the energy sector. Earlier works on energy commodities and on Oil in particular. We use a hybrid commodities-credit model to asses impact

  16. Risk & QualityRisk & Quality ManagementManagement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    liability."" [Balsaono RR, Brown[Balsaono RR, Brown MK, Risk ManagementMK, Risk Management inin Legal

  17. MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships 2012 -School of Film & Photography The School of Film and Photography expects to have scholarship monies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dyer, Bill

    MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships 2012 - School of Film & Photography The School of Film of the written statement, originality, creative energy, and relative accomplishment of the work submitted no later than 4:00 p.m., Friday, January 27, 2012 addressed to: Montana State University-Bozeman School

  18. MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships 2013 -School of Film & Photography The School of Film and Photography expects to have scholarship monies available to award to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dyer, Bill

    MSU Friday Audition/Portfolio Scholarships 2013 - School of Film & Photography The School of Film on the written statement, originality, creative energy, and relative accomplishment of the work submitted no later than 4:00 p.m., Friday, January 25, 2013 addressed to: Montana State University-Bozeman School

  19. Principal wind turbines for a conditional portfolio approach to wind farms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopes, Vitor V; Raischel, Frank; Lind, Pedro G

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a measure for estimating the best risk-return relation of power production in wind farms within a given time-lag, conditioned to the velocity field. The velocity field is represented by a scalar that weighs the influence of the velocity at each wind turbine at present and previous time-steps for the present "state" of the wind field. The scalar measure introduced is a linear combination of the few turbines, that most influence the overall power production. This quantity is then used as the condition for computing a conditional expected return and corresponding risk associated to the future total power output.

  20. A comparison of the integration of Risk management Principles in Product Development Approaches

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oehmen, Josef

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The management and reduction of risk is a central part of product development processes. This paper analyses the extent to which four common product development approaches address risks (waterfall model, stage gate model, ...

  1. Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

    2009-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is more efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.

  2. Bengi Mezhepoglu and Dr. Lance Sherry 1 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF AIR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRACTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    their risk acceptance and the start time of the capacity project. Net Present Value (NPV) is maximized expanding available facilities (1). Moreover, policy makers have to rely on tools to project the impacts that is added, and the cost of congestion not addressed by additional capacity. 2. Net Present Value (NPV

  3. Bengi Mezhepoglu and Dr. Lance Sherry 1 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF AIR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRACTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of unutilized capacity added and the cost of congestion allowed. Net Present Value is maximized for risk be more expensive than expanding available facilities (1). Moreover, policy makers have to rely on tools a tradeoff between the cost of unutilized capacity added and the cost of congestion allowed. 2. Net Present

  4. An Intelligent Portfolio Management Approach to Gas Storage Field Deliverability Maintenance and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    ;Outline Introduction Methodology & Software Results Objective Conclusions #12;Energy consumption by fuel Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Introduction #12;Introduction Typical gas storage fields operations in the same way. This is an optimization problem. Gaining the highest return with minimum risk

  5. Risk Policy and Risk Management Procedures The University's Risk Policy sets out The University's approach to risk and its

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aickelin, Uwe

    Risk Policy and Risk Management Procedures Preface The University's Risk Policy sets out The University's approach to risk and its management together with the means for identifying, analysing and managing risk in order to minimise its frequency and impact. The risks considered significant

  6. Professional Certificate in Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carleton University

    Professional Certificate in Risk Management 2010 Program 3 Part-time Courses CRM01: Essentials of Risk Management ­ Next Session Fall 2010 CRM02: Risk Control ­ Jan. 12 - April 26, 2010 CRM03: Risk to apply for the Canadian Risk Management (CRM) designation. #12;Professional Certificate in Risk

  7. Robustifying Convex Risk Measures: A Non-Parametric Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

    to deal with ambiguity of the distribution of random asset losses in portfolio ... tries to dampen estimation errors that might have an adverse effect .... P. Although statistical methods, analyses of fundamentals, and expert ..... In practice, a portfolio manager would impose many more restrictions on ..... Annals of Operations.

  8. Incentive Games and Mechanisms for Risk Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alpcan, Tansu

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Incentives play an important role in (security and IT) risk management of a large-scale organization with multiple autonomous divisions. This paper presents an incentive mechanism design framework for risk management based on a game-theoretic approach. The risk manager acts as a mechanism designer providing rules and incentive factors such as assistance or subsidies to divisions or units, which are modeled as selfish players of a strategic (noncooperative) game. Based on this model, incentive mechanisms with various objectives are developed that satisfy efficiency, preference-compatibility, and strategy-proofness criteria. In addition, iterative and distributed algorithms are presented, which can be implemented under information limitations such as the risk manager not knowing the individual units' preferences. An example scenario illustrates the framework and results numerically. The incentive mechanism design approach presented is useful for not only deriving guidelines but also developing computer-assistan...

  9. Quantum risk-sensitive estimation and robustness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naoki Yamamoto; Luc Bouten

    2008-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper studies a quantum risk-sensitive estimation problem and investigates robustness properties of the filter. This is a direct extension to the quantum case of analogous classical results. All investigations are based on a discrete approximation model of the quantum system under consideration. This allows us to study the problem in a simple mathematical setting. We close the paper with some examples that demonstrate the robustness of the risk-sensitive estimator.

  10. Conditional Risk Mappings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Megiddo

    2006-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Key words: Risk; Conjugate Duality; Stochastic Optimization; Dynamic ... MSC2000 Subject Classification: Primary: 90C15,90C48; Secondary: 91B30,

  11. Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eide, Steven Arvid; Thomas Wierman

    2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environment, Safety and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) models human safety and health risk resulting from waste management and environmental restoration activities. Human safety and health risks include those associated with storing, handling, processing, transporting, and disposing of radionuclides and chemicals. Exposures to these materials, resulting from both accidents and normal, incident-free operation, are modeled. In addition, standard industrial risks (falls, explosions, transportation accidents, etc.) are evaluated. Finally, human safety and health impacts from cleanup of accidental releases of radionuclides and chemicals to the environment are estimated. Unlike environmental impact statements and safety analysis reports, ESHRAP risk predictions are meant to be best estimate, rather than bounding or conservatively high. Typically, ESHRAP studies involve risk predictions covering the entire waste management or environmental restoration program, including such activities as initial storage, handling, processing, interim storage, transportation, and final disposal. ESHRAP can be used to support complex environmental decision-making processes and to track risk reduction as activities progress.

  12. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  13. Risk Management 22:390:670, Fall 2013 Michael B. Miller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    Risk Management 22:390:670, Fall 2013 Michael B. Miller Class: Mondays, 6:00 ­ 9:00 PM Office Hours risk management. Emphasis will be on modeling and quantitative techniques. Students will learn how risk management is carried out in today's financial firms and about current challenges in financial risk

  14. ERDC/EL TN-11-1 Flood Risk Management: Insights from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ERDC/EL TN-11-1 March 2011 Flood Risk Management: Insights from an Expert Modeling Process by M. D preparedness planning that harmonizes efforts of implementing agencies and stakeholders. Risk management are essential for effective risk management policy. Formal (versus ad hoc) analyses of risk manager and stake

  15. Essays on risk aversion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jindapon, Paan

    2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    the preferred distribution by a simple mean-preserving spread and the cost is a utility cost. Higher-order increases in risk lead to higher-order generalizations, and the com- parative statics method yields a unified approach to the problem of comparative risk...

  16. Common risk factors in bank stocks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Viale, Ariel Marcelo

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    is calculated by dividing the book value of common equity for the fiscal year ending in calendar time t-1 by the market value of equity at the end of December of t-1. I formed 25 portfolios from the intersections of five size and five book-to-market quintiles.... The value-weighted monthly excess return on these 25 portfolios e ti R , is the dependent variables in time-series and cross-sectional regressions. Accounting information is taken both from the Y-9Cs and COMPUSTAT. Only commercial bank holding...

  17. STATISTICAL AND ALGORITHM ASPECTS OF OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE INSTITUTE OF COMPUTATIONAL AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    , Realized GARCH, for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. A key feature GARCH models with a linear or log-linear specication have many attractive features Realized GARCH structure leads to substantial improvements in the empirical t over standard GARCH models

  18. Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luke, Amy; Bovet, Pascal; Forrester, Terrence E; Lambert, Estelle V; Plange-Rhule, Jacob; Schoeller, Dale A; Dugas, Lara R; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon A; Shoham, David; Cooper, Richard S; Brage, Soren; Ekelund, Ulf; Steyn, Nelia

    2011-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

    empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. Methods/Design The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed...

  19. Risk Management in Biopharmaceutical Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Yao

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Supply Chain Risk Managementof Recent Work on Supply Chain Risk Management . . . . .M. , Supply chain risk management: Outlining an agenda for

  20. Systemic risk in consumer finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poon, Martha

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Systemic risk in consumer finance Uncertain about risk HowComplexity, Ecology, Finance The Pre-History of ResilienceSystemic risk in consumer finance Martha Poon, NYU At the

  1. (Energy Risk Professional, ERP), (GARP),

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaplan, Alexander

    · ­ Dragana Pilipovic. Energy Risk: Valuing and Managing Energy Derivatives,2nd Edition (New York: Mc). 9: Risk Management of Energy Derivatives · ­ Alexander Triantis. Handbook of Modern Finance (New 1 ( ) : . (Energy Risk Professional, ERP

  2. Risk in the Weapons Stockpile

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noone, Bailey C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-14T23:59:59.000Z

    When it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile, risk must be as low as possible. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk.

  3. Optimization Online Digest -- March 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tractable Robust Expected Utility and Risk Models for Portfolio Optimization ... of a semidefinite programming solver based on CSDP on a distributed memory cluster ... Epi-convergent Scenario Generation Method for Stochastic Problems via ...

  4. Optimization Online - All Areas Submissions - March 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ... a semidefinite programming solver based on CSDP on a distributed memory cluster ... Tractable Robust Expected Utility and Risk Models for Portfolio Optimization ... Epi-convergent Scenario Generation Method for Stochastic Problems via ...

  5. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO/sub 4/, NO/sub 2/, and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO/sub 2/. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10/sup -9/ average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10/sup -4/ for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables.

  6. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  7. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    with New Renewable Resources 18Portfolios with New Renewable Resources No. of Candidateportfolios with new renewable resources comprising, at most,

  8. ORISE: Crisis and Risk Communication

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Crisis and Risk Communication Crisis and Risk Communication Because a natural disaster, act of terrorism or other public emergency can happen without notice, having a planned,...

  9. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This Guide provides non-mandatory risk management approaches for implementing the requirements of DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets. Cancels DOE G 413.3-7.

  10. RISK ASSESSMENT CLOUD COMPUTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    SECURITY RESEARCH PRIVACY RISK ASSESSMENT AMC DATA FISMA CLOUD COMPUTING MOBILE DEVICES OPERATIONS application hosted in the cloud · Alaska DHHS fined $1.7M ­ Portable device stolen from vehicle · Mass Eye

  11. Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk Anna Nagurney as well as demand side risk are included in the formulation. The model consists of three tiers of decision chain network equilibrium model with electronic com- merce and with supply side and demand side risk

  12. Development of Science-Based Permitting Guidance for Geological Sequestration of CO2 in Deep Saline Aquifers Based on Modeling and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jean-Philippe Nicot; Renaud Bouroullec; Hugo Castellanos; Susan Hovorka; Srivatsan Lakshminarasimhan; Jeffrey Paine

    2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Underground carbon storage may become one of the solutions to address global warming. However, to have an impact, carbon storage must be done at a much larger scale than current CO{sub 2} injection operations for enhanced oil recovery. It must also include injection into saline aquifers. An important characteristic of CO{sub 2} is its strong buoyancy--storage must be guaranteed to be sufficiently permanent to satisfy the very reason that CO{sub 2} is injected. This long-term aspect (hundreds to thousands of years) is not currently captured in legislation, even if the U.S. has a relatively well-developed regulatory framework to handle carbon storage, especially in the operational short term. This report proposes a hierarchical approach to permitting in which the State/Federal Government is responsible for developing regional assessments, ranking potential sites (''General Permit'') and lessening the applicant's burden if the general area of the chosen site has been ranked more favorably. The general permit would involve determining in the regional sense structural (closed structures), stratigraphic (heterogeneity), and petrophysical (flow parameters such as residual saturation) controls on the long-term fate of geologically sequestered CO{sub 2}. The state-sponsored regional studies and the subsequent local study performed by the applicant will address the long-term risk of the particular site. It is felt that a performance-based approach rather than a prescriptive approach is the most appropriate framework in which to address public concerns. However, operational issues for each well (equivalent to the current underground injection control-UIC-program) could follow regulations currently in place. Area ranking will include an understanding of trapping modes. Capillary (due to residual saturation) and structural (due to local geological configuration) trappings are two of the four mechanisms (the other two are solubility and mineral trappings), which are the most relevant to the time scale of interest. The most likely pathways for leakage, if any, are wells and faults. We favor a defense-in-depth approach, in which storage permanence does not rely upon a primary seal only but assumes that any leak can be contained by geologic processes before impacting mineral resources, fresh ground water, or ground surface. We examined the Texas Gulf Coast as an example of an attractive target for carbon storage. Stacked sand-shale layers provide large potential storage volumes and defense-in-depth leakage protection. In the Texas Gulf Coast, the best way to achieve this goal is to establish the primary injection level below the total depth of most wells (>2,400 m-8,000 ft). In addition, most faults, particularly growth faults, present at the primary injection level do not reach the surface. A potential methodology, which includes an integrated approach comprising the whole chain of potential events from leakage from the primary site to atmospheric impacts, is also presented. It could be followed by the State/Federal Government, as well as by the operators.

  13. Financing smallholder agribusiness in Zambia: an economic analysis of the ZATAC model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mwanamambo, Brian Namushi

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    .............................................................. 68 Results and Analysis Based on Full Loan Portfolio....................... 68 Analysis of Credit Supply to Currency-Based Portfolio Sub- Groups... ............................................................................................ 77 Regression Results from the Currency-Based Portfolio Sub- Groups ............................................................................................ 81 VI DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS...

  14. Risk Perceptions and Risk Management Strategies in French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    EA 4272 Risk Perceptions and Risk Management Strategies in French Oyster Farming Véronique le Bihan Perceptions and Risk Management Strategies in French Oyster Farming Véronique Le Bihan, Sophie Pardo, Patrice and their businesses contribute to defining their degree of risk perception and reliance on management tools. Beyond

  15. THE FUNDAMENTAL RISK QUADRANGLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT, OPTIMIZATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uryasev, Stanislav

    THE FUNDAMENTAL RISK QUADRANGLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT, OPTIMIZATION AND STATISTICAL ESTIMATION1 R be confronted in numerous situations. Dealing with them systematically for purposes in risk management Statistical estimation is inevitably a partner with risk management in handling hazards, which may be known

  16. Rethinking Risk: Aspiration as Pure Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davies, Greg B

    2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

    of an environmental decision problem where di¤erent investment packages (acts) lead to di¤erent possible levels of global wealth and overall levels of global warming. Avoiding the all too easy economic assumption that the global wealth levels can simply be adjusted... by some amount to re‡ect the e¤ect of the global temperature levels, we are now left with two numerical components in this problem. There are thus separate measures of risk aversion that deal with wealth and temperature, and therefore two di¤erent concepts...

  17. Guidance for Incorporating Organizational Factors Into Nuclear Power Plant Risk Assessments - Phase 1 Workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Julius; A. Mosleh; M. Golay; V. Guthrie; J. Wreathall; A. Spurgin; B. Hannaman; D. Ziebell

    2002-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    EPRI sponsored this study in order to help determine the influence of organizational factors on plant safety, risk, and economics. PRA tools provide excellent models for answering the question, ''How does change in an organizational factor impact the risk value?''

  18. Hurricane risk analysis: A review on the physically-based approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Ning

    This paper reviews recent studies that take a physically-based approach to better assess and manage hurricane risk. Such a methodology includes three components: modeling the storm climatology (which defines TC risk in ...

  19. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  20. The Treatment of Renewable Energy Certificates, EmissionsAllowances, and Green Power Programs in State Renewables PortfolioStandards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holt, Edward A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia have adopted mandatory renewables portfolio standards (RPS) over the last ten years. Renewable energy attributes-such as the energy source, conversion technology, plant location and vintage, and emissions-are usually required to verify compliance with these policies, sometimes through attributes bundled with electricity, and sometimes with the attributes unbundled from electricity and traded separately as renewable energy certificates (RECs). This report summarizes the treatment of renewable energy attributes in state RPS rules. Its purpose is to provide a source of information for states considering RPS policies, and also to draw attention to certain policy issues that arise when renewable attributes and RECs are used for RPS compliance. Three specific issues are addressed: (1) the degree to which unbundled RECs are allowed under existing state RPS programs and the status of systems to track RECs and renewable energy attributes; (2) definitions of the renewable energy attributes that must be included in order to meet state RPS obligations, including the treatment of available emissions allowances; and (3) state policies on whether renewable energy or RECs sold through voluntary green power transactions may count towards RPS obligations.