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Sample records for modeled estimates increase

  1. Cost Model and Cost Estimating Software

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter discusses a formalized methodology is basically a cost model, which forms the basis for estimating software.

  2. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) ...

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product for climate modelers Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data ...

  5. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants New DOE Modeling Tool ... of Energy (DOE) recently released a new version of the Jobs and Economic ...

  6. Retrofit Energy Savings Estimation Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Desktop Application Website: btech.lbl.govtoolsresemresem.htm Cost: Free Language: English References: Retrofit Energy Savings Estimation Model1 Logo: Retrofit...

  7. Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small angle neutron scattering Authors: Zhang, Rui ; Liu, Shimin ; Bahadur, Jitendra ; Elsworth, Derek ; ...

  8. Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2012-10-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  9. Battery Life Estimator Manual Linear Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2009-08-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file ...

  11. ARM - PI Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govDataPI Data ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Climate...

  12. ARM - Evaluation Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you...

  13. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... month - The final fitted polynomial model has 10% - 20% errors - not good enough * Regression kriging - Used quadratic as a meantrend model and stationary Gaussian Process model ...

  14. INCREASE

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2013-07-22

    The Interdisciplinary Consortium for Research and Educational Access in Science and Engineering (INCREASE), assists minority-serving institutions in gaining access to world-class research facilities.

  15. The Federal Highway Administration Gasohol Consumption Estimation Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, HL

    2003-08-28

    The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is responsible for estimating the portion of Federal highway funds attributable to each State. The process involves use of State-reported data (gallons) and a set of estimation models when accurate State data is unavailable. To ensure that the distribution of funds is equitable, FHWA periodically reviews the estimation models. Estimation of the use of gasohol is difficult because of State differences in the definition of gasohol, inability of many States to separate and report gasohol usage from other fuel types, changes in fuel composition in nonattainment areas to address concerns over the use of certain fuel additives, and the lack of a valid State-level surrogate data set for gasohol use. Under the sponsorship of FHWA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) reviewed the regression-based gasohol estimation model that has been in use for several years. Based on an analytical assessment of that model and an extensive review of potential data sets, ORNL developed an improved rule-based model. The new model uses data from Internal Revenue Service, Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, ORNL, and FHWA sources. The model basically consists of three parts: (1) development of a controlled total of national gasohol usage, (2) determination of reliable State gasohol consumption data, and (3) estimation of gasohol usage for all other States. The new model will be employed for the 2004 attribution process. FHWA is currently soliciting comments and inputs from interested parties. Relevant data, as identified, will be pursued and refinements will be made by the research team if warranted.

  16. Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sutarno, D.

    2015-09-30

    Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition

  17. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  18. Parameter estimation for models of ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzyme kinetics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Gangsheng; Post, Wilfred M; Mayes, Melanie; Frerichs, Joshua T; Jagadamma, Sindhu

    2012-01-01

    While soil enzymes have been explicitly included in the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition models, there is a serious lack of suitable data for model parameterization. This study provides well-documented enzymatic parameters for application in enzyme-driven SOC decomposition models from a compilation and analysis of published measurements. In particular, we developed appropriate kinetic parameters for five typical ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzymes ( -glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, endo-glucanase, peroxidase, and phenol oxidase). The kinetic parameters included the maximum specific enzyme activity (Vmax) and half-saturation constant (Km) in the Michaelis-Menten equation. The activation energy (Ea) and the pH optimum and sensitivity (pHopt and pHsen) were also analyzed. pHsen was estimated by fitting an exponential-quadratic function. The Vmax values, often presented in different units under various measurement conditions, were converted into the same units at a reference temperature (20 C) and pHopt. Major conclusions are: (i) Both Vmax and Km were log-normal distributed, with no significant difference in Vmax exhibited between enzymes originating from bacteria or fungi. (ii) No significant difference in Vmax was found between cellulases and ligninases; however, there was significant difference in Km between them. (iii) Ligninases had higher Ea values and lower pHopt than cellulases; average ratio of pHsen to pHopt ranged 0.3 0.4 for the five enzymes, which means that an increase or decrease of 1.1 1.7 pH units from pHopt would reduce Vmax by 50%. (iv) Our analysis indicated that the Vmax values from lab measurements with purified enzymes were 1 2 orders of magnitude higher than those for use in SOC decomposition models under field conditions.

  19. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  20. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  1. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  2. Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Nkei, Bertrand [ORNL; Newman, David E [University of Alaska

    2005-09-01

    We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

  3. Increased Efficiency with Model Based Calibration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Efficiency with Model Based Calibration Increased Efficiency with Model Based Calibration Meeting future TIER 4 emission limits requires the integration of many new technology elements. deer09_diewald.pdf (1.04 MB) More Documents & Publications Vehicle Evaluation of Downsized Dow ACM DPF Exhaust Aftertreatment and Low Pressure Loop EGR Applied to an Off-Highway Engine Review of Emerging Diesel Emissions and Control

  4. Increased

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Increased confinement improvement in a reversed-field pinch using double-pulsed poloidal current drive Y. Yagi, a) H. Koguchi, Y. Hirano, T. Shimada, H. Sakakita, and S. Sekine National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 1-1-1 Umezono, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8568, Japan B. E. Chapman and J. S. Sarff University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 ͑Received 12 December 2002; accepted 18 April 2003͒ The pulsed poloidal current drive ͑PPCD͒ ͓J. S. Sarff et al.,

  5. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, ...

  7. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) from AERONET and OMI retrievals and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.6 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 10 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC is 0.6 and underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the

  8. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  9. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  10. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  11. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  12. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  13. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  14. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Estimating vehicle roadside encroachment frequency using accident prediction models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miaou, S.-P.

    1996-07-01

    The existing data to support the development of roadside encroachment- based accident models are extremely limited and largely outdated. Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration and Transportation Research Board, several roadside safety projects have attempted to address this issue by providing rather comprehensive data collection plans and conducting pilot data collection efforts. It is clear from the results of these studies that the required field data collection efforts will be expensive. Furthermore, the validity of any field collected encroachment data may be questionable because of the technical difficulty to distinguish intentional from unintentional encroachments. This paper proposes an alternative method for estimating the basic roadside encroachment data without actually field collecting them. The method is developed by exploring the probabilistic relationships between a roadside encroachment event and a run-off-the-road event With some mild assumptions, the method is capable of providing a wide range of basic encroachment data from conventional accident prediction models. To illustrate the concept and use of such a method, some basic encroachment data are estimated for rural two-lane undivided roads. In addition, the estimated encroachment data are compared with the existing collected data. The illustration shows that the method described in this paper can be a viable approach to estimating basic encroachment data without actually collecting them which can be very costly.

  18. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2065 Unlimited Release Printed March 2015 Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules Clifford W. Hansen Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract

  19. RSMASS: A simple model for estimating reactor and shield masses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marshall, A.C.; Aragon, J.; Gallup, D.

    1987-01-01

    A simple mathematical model (RSMASS) has been developed to provide rapid estimates of reactor and shield masses for space-based reactor power systems. Approximations are used rather than correlations or detailed calculations to estimate the reactor fuel mass and the masses of the moderator, structure, reflector, pressure vessel, miscellaneous components, and the reactor shield. The fuel mass is determined either by neutronics limits, thermal/hydraulic limits, or fuel damage limits, whichever yields the largest mass. RSMASS requires the reactor power and energy, 24 reactor parameters, and 20 shield parameters to be specified. This parametric approach should be applicable to a very broad range of reactor types. Reactor and shield masses calculated by RSMASS were found to be in good agreement with the masses obtained from detailed calculations.

  20. Estimation of landfill emission lifespan using process oriented modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ustohalova, Veronika . E-mail: veronika.ustohalova@uni-essen.de; Ricken, Tim; Widmann, Renatus

    2006-07-01

    Depending on the particular pollutants emitted, landfills may require service activities lasting from hundreds to thousands of years. Flexible tools allowing long-term predictions of emissions are of key importance to determine the nature and expected duration of maintenance and post-closure activities. A highly capable option represents predictions based on models and verified by experiments that are fast, flexible and allow for the comparison of various possible operation scenarios in order to find the most appropriate one. The intention of the presented work was to develop a experimentally verified multi-dimensional predictive model capable of quantifying and estimating processes taking place in landfill sites where coupled process description allows precise time and space resolution. This constitutive 2-dimensional model is based on the macromechanical theory of porous media (TPM) for a saturated thermo-elastic porous body. The model was used to simulate simultaneously occurring processes: organic phase transition, gas emissions, heat transport, and settlement behavior on a long time scale for municipal solid waste deposited in a landfill. The relationships between the properties (composition, pore structure) of a landfill and the conversion and multi-phase transport phenomena inside it were experimentally determined. In this paper, we present both the theoretical background of the model and the results of the simulations at one single point as well as in a vertical landfill cross section.

  1. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  2. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  3. ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product ...

  4. A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Araujo, Marcelo Guimaraes; Magrini, Alessandra; Mahler, Claudio Fernando; Bilitewski, Bernd

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Literature of WEEE generation in developing countries is reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We analyse existing estimates of WEEE generation for Brazil. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a model for WEEE generation estimate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer WEEE generation of 3.77 kg/capita year for 2008 is estimated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Use of constant lifetime should be avoided for non-mature market products. - Abstract: Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste must be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated. This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products. The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the 'boom' in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.

  5. Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; Hengartner, Nicholas; Higdon, Dave; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

    2016-02-20

    Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

  6. Reasons for changes in MPG estimates, model year 1978 to the present

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patterson, P.D.; Westbrook, F.W.; Greene, D.L.; Roberts, G.F.

    1984-01-01

    In model year 1983, new car MPG declined for the first time in ten years. Accompanying this decline in MPG, the size of the average car increased, car weights and engine sized increased and diesel sales declined - all reversing their movements over the previous ten years. Using carline MPG estimates and sales figures, it is estimated that new car MPG declined 0.29 in 1983 after rising 6.70 MPG over the previous four years. Furthermore,it is estimated that actions by new car buyers would have lowered the 1983 MPG 0.40 MPG through the purchase of larger cars, cars with larger engines and fewer diesel engines if the manufacturers had not some fuel economy improvements and introduced some new high-MPG cars. A simple model of future fuel use increases as a friction of MPG levels below a specified level consistent with the CAFE standards shows that the costs of lower fuel economy will only gradually be felt, but that these costs will increase over time and persist for over a decade.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC3) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC2) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate ...

  10. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model; Final report: Documentation of waste management process, development of Cost Estimation Model, and model reference manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

  11. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed ... glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered ...

  12. A Three-Parameter Model for Estimating Atmospheric Tritium Dose at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpkins, A.A.; Hamby, D.M.

    1997-12-31

    The models used in the NRC approach to assess chronic atmospheric release of radioactivity generate deterministic dose estimates by using assumptions about exposure conditions and environmental transport mechanisms.

  13. Impedance-estimation methods, modeling methods, articles of manufacture, impedance-modeling devices, and estimated-impedance monitoring systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Richardson, John G.

    2009-11-17

    An impedance estimation method includes measuring three or more impedances of an object having a periphery using three or more probes coupled to the periphery. The three or more impedance measurements are made at a first frequency. Three or more additional impedance measurements of the object are made using the three or more probes. The three or more additional impedance measurements are made at a second frequency different from the first frequency. An impedance of the object at a point within the periphery is estimated based on the impedance measurements and the additional impedance measurements.

  14. Estimation of anisotropy parameters in organic-rich shale: Rock physics forward modeling approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herawati, Ida Winardhi, Sonny; Priyono, Awali

    2015-09-30

    Anisotropy analysis becomes an important step in processing and interpretation of seismic data. One of the most important things in anisotropy analysis is anisotropy parameter estimation which can be estimated using well data, core data or seismic data. In seismic data, anisotropy parameter calculation is generally based on velocity moveout analysis. However, the accuracy depends on data quality, available offset, and velocity moveout picking. Anisotropy estimation using seismic data is needed to obtain wide coverage of particular layer anisotropy. In anisotropic reservoir, analysis of anisotropy parameters also helps us to better understand the reservoir characteristics. Anisotropy parameters, especially ε, are related to rock property and lithology determination. Current research aims to estimate anisotropy parameter from seismic data and integrate well data with case study in potential shale gas reservoir. Due to complexity in organic-rich shale reservoir, extensive study from different disciplines is needed to understand the reservoir. Shale itself has intrinsic anisotropy caused by lamination of their formed minerals. In order to link rock physic with seismic response, it is necessary to build forward modeling in organic-rich shale. This paper focuses on studying relationship between reservoir properties such as clay content, porosity and total organic content with anisotropy. Organic content which defines prospectivity of shale gas can be considered as solid background or solid inclusion or both. From the forward modeling result, it is shown that organic matter presence increases anisotropy in shale. The relationships between total organic content and other seismic properties such as acoustic impedance and Vp/Vs are also presented.

  15. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  16. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore » simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in

  17. Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, Henry; Gill, Philip

    2015-03-31

    In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

  18. Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Futang

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

  19. Estimating Heat and Mass Transfer Processes in Green Roof Systems: Current Modeling Capabilities and Limitations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares Velasco, P. C.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation discusses estimating heat and mass transfer processes in green roof systems: current modeling capabilities and limitations. Green roofs are 'specialized roofing systems that support vegetation growth on rooftops.'

  20. Evaluation of Clear Sky Models for Satellite-Based Irradiance Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sengupta, M.; Gotseff, P.

    2013-12-01

    This report describes an intercomparison of three popular broadband clear sky solar irradiance model results with measured data, as well as satellite-based model clear sky results compared to measured clear sky data. The authors conclude that one of the popular clear sky models (the Bird clear sky model developed by Richard Bird and Roland Hulstrom) could serve as a more accurate replacement for current satellite-model clear sky estimations. Additionally, the analysis of the model results with respect to model input parameters indicates that rather than climatological, annual, or monthly mean input data, higher-time-resolution input parameters improve the general clear sky model performance.

  1. A review of existing models and methods to estimate employment effects of pollution control policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1988-02-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide information about existing models and methods used to estimate coal mining employment impacts of pollution control policies. The EPA is currently assessing the consequences of various alternative policies to reduce air pollution. One important potential consequence of these policies is that coal mining employment may decline or shift from low-sulfur to high-sulfur coal producing regions. The EPA requires models that can estimate the magnitude and cost of these employment changes at the local level. This paper contains descriptions and evaluations of three models and methods currently used to estimate the size and cost of coal mining employment changes. The first model reviewed is the Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM), a well established, general purpose model that has been used by the EPA and other groups to simulate air pollution control policies. The second model reviewed is the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM), which was developed for the EPA specifically to analyze the impacts of air pollution control policies. Finally, the methodology used by Arthur D. Little, Inc. to estimate the costs of alternative air pollution control policies for the Consolidated Coal Company is discussed. These descriptions and evaluations are based on information obtained from published reports and from draft documentation of the models provided by the EPA. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  2. Evaluation of models for estimating solar irradiation on vertical surfaces at Valencia, Spain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Utrillas, M.P.; Martinez-Lozano, J.A.; Casanovas, A.J. )

    1991-01-01

    Hourly irradiation data recorded on vertical surfaces at north, east, south, and west orientations during the winter period going from December 1989 to March 1990 in Valencia, Spain, have been compared with estimated solar irradiation from several tilted-surface models. The isotropic-, Temps' and Coulson's-, Klucher's-, Hay's-, Shartveit's and Olseth's, Gueymard's-, and Perez' (simplified) models have been considered for this comparison. Root-mean-square-difference (RMSD), mean-bias-difference (MBD) and mean-absolute-difference (MAD) estimators have been used to measure the departure of models from experimental data. Modeled values are evaluated with the original coefficients proposed by the authors. Results of comparison show that the south orientation is less prone to modeling errors. Perez' 25{degree} circumsolar simplified model being the less affected by errors in north, eat and south orientations; for west orientation Klucher's model gives a lesser error. These results are consistent with those reported in previous studies.

  3. Substitution and price elasticity estimates using inter-countrypooled data in a translog cost model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roy, Joyashree; Sanstad, Alan H.; Sathaye, Jayant A.; Khaddaria,Raman

    2006-06-01

    Pooled data across several developing countries and the U.S. were used to estimate long-run substitution and price elasticities ina translog framework for the paper, iron and steel, and aggregatemanufacturing industries. While the quality of the estimates variesacross the several industry-specific models, the results suggest highervalues for these elasticities than appear commonly used in integratedassessment models. Estimates of own-price elasticities of energy rangefrom - 0.80 to - 1.76 and are comparable to estimates from previouseconometric studies in the context of developed countries (- 0.77 to -0.87). Substitution elasticities show wider variation across countriesand industries. For energy and capital they range from -1.96 to 9.80, forlabor and energy from 2.61 to 7.11, and for energy and material from -0.26 to 2.07.

  4. Parameter estimation from flowing fluid temperature logging data in unsaturated fractured rock using multiphase inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Tsang, Y.; Finsterle, S.

    2009-01-15

    A simple conceptual model has been recently developed for analyzing pressure and temperature data from flowing fluid temperature logging (FFTL) in unsaturated fractured rock. Using this conceptual model, we developed an analytical solution for FFTL pressure response, and a semianalytical solution for FFTL temperature response. We also proposed a method for estimating fracture permeability from FFTL temperature data. The conceptual model was based on some simplifying assumptions, particularly that a single-phase airflow model was used. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive numerical model of multiphase flow and heat transfer associated with FFTL. Using this numerical model, we perform a number of forward simulations to determine the parameters that have the strongest influence on the pressure and temperature response from FFTL. We then use the iTOUGH2 optimization code to estimate these most sensitive parameters through inverse modeling and to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimated parameters. We conclude that FFTL can be utilized to determine permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity of the fracture rock. Two other parameters, which are not properties of the fractured rock, have strong influence on FFTL response. These are pressure and temperature in the borehole that were at equilibrium with the fractured rock formation at the beginning of FFTL. We illustrate how these parameters can also be estimated from FFTL data.

  5. Shell model estimate of electric dipole moment in medium and heavy nuclei

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshinaga, Naotaka; Higashiyama, Koji

    2011-05-06

    The nuclear electric dipole moment (EDM) and the nuclear Schiff moment for the lowest 1/2{sup +} state of {sup 129}Xe are investigated in terms of the nuclear shell model. We estimate the upper limit for the EDM of neutral {sup 129}Xe atom using the Schiff moment. We also estimate the upper limit of the nuclear EDM, which may be directly measured through ionic atoms.

  6. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To help developers more readily estimate the economic benefits of offshore wind plants, DOE recently released a new version of the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) input-output modeling tool. The original tool was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to estimate the economic impacts of constructing renewable power plants. The updated version allows users to better understand the potential regional economic impacts of offshore wind development.

  7. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  8. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  9. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  10. Estimating Parameters for the PVsyst Version 6 Photovoltaic Module Performance Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford

    2015-10-01

    We present an algorithm to determine parameters for the photovoltaic module perf ormance model encoded in the software package PVsyst(TM) version 6. Our method operates on current - voltage (I - V) measured over a range of irradiance and temperature conditions. We describe the method and illustrate its steps using data for a 36 cell crystalli ne silicon module. We qualitatively compare our method with one other technique for estimating parameters for the PVsyst(TM) version 6 model .

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best ...

  12. Estimating Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport: Sensitivity to Modelled Particle Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burrows, Susannah M.; Rayner, Perter; Butler, T.; Lawrence, M.

    2013-06-04

    Model-simulated transport of atmospheric trace components can be combined with observed concentrations to obtain estimates of ground-based sources using various inversion techniques. These approaches have been applied in the past primarily to obtain source estimates for long-lived trace gases such as CO2. We consider the application of similar techniques to source estimation for atmospheric aerosols, by using as a case study the estimation of bacteria emissions from different ecosystem regions in the global atmospheric chemistry and climate model ECHAM5/MESSy-Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). Simulated particle concentrations in the tropopause region and at high latitudes, as well as transport of particles to tundra and land ice regions are shown to be highly sensitive to scavenging in mixed-phase clouds, which is poorly characterized in most global climate models. This may be a critical uncertainty in correctly simulating the transport of aerosol particles to the Arctic. Source estimation via Monte Carlo Markov Chain is applied to a suite of sensitivity simulations and the global mean emissions are estimated. We present an analysis of the partitioning of uncertainties in the global mean emissions that are attributable to particle size, CCN activity, the ice nucleation scavenging ratios for mixed-phase and cold clouds, and measurement error. Uncertainty due to CCN activity or to a 1 um error in particle size is typically between 10% and 40% of the uncertainty due to data uncertainty, as measured by the 5%-ile to 95%-ile range of the Monte Carlo ensemble. Uncertainty attributable to the ice nucleation scavenging ratio in mized-phase clouds is as high as 10% to 20% of the data uncertainty. Taken together, the four model 20 parameters examined contribute about half as much to the uncertainty in the estimated emissions as do the measurements. This was a surprisingly large contribution from model uncertainty in light of the substantial data uncertainty, which ranges from 81

  13. Geomechanical Analysis with Rigorous Error Estimates for a Double-Porosity Reservoir Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berryman, J G

    2005-04-11

    A model of random polycrystals of porous laminates is introduced to provide a means for studying geomechanical properties of double-porosity reservoirs. Calculations on the resulting earth reservoir model can proceed semi-analytically for studies of either the poroelastic or transport coefficients. Rigorous bounds of the Hashin-Shtrikman type provide estimates of overall bulk and shear moduli, and thereby also provide rigorous error estimates for geomechanical constants obtained from up-scaling based on a self-consistent effective medium method. The influence of hidden (or presumed unknown) microstructure on the final results can then be evaluated quantitatively. Detailed descriptions of the use of the model and some numerical examples showing typical results for the double-porosity poroelastic coefficients of a heterogeneous reservoir are presented.

  14. Estimation of k-e parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lefantzi, Sophia; Ray, Jaideep; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; Dechant, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k [?] e parameters ( C u , C e 2 , C e 1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal values of the turbulence model

  15. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  16. An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harlim, John; Mahdi, Adam; Majda, Andrew J.

    2014-01-15

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statisticaldynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (eastwest) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.

  17. Estimation and decomposition of productive efficiency in a panel data model: an application to electric utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melfi, C.A.

    1984-01-01

    New econometric methodology for modeling and estimating technical and allocative efficiency in production is proposed and applied. Translog cost frontier and share equations are presented in a panel data context, with the structure of the error terms representing noise and inefficiency. The use of panel data with this multivariate error components approach facilitates the separation of eficiency into its technical and allocative components, as well as the separation of noise from inefficiency. The model used is logically consistent in that the distributional assumptions concerning the disturbance vectors take into account the relationships among the disturbance terms in the cost and share equations. This method of efficiency measurement is applied to the electric utilities industry to obtain individual firm estimates of technical and allocative efficiency. The data consist of yearly cost, output, and input price information on 38 electric utility firms over a period of 18 years. Rate-of-return regulation in the electric utilities industry requires estimation of a regulated cost frontier and the associated share equations. Estimates of technical and allocative efficiency are obtained for each firm in every year. Comparisons are made with previous efficiency measurement studies. The measures of efficiency are analyzed in light of rate-of-return regulation.

  18. Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2009-10-05

    This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

  19. Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings J. Woods, J. Winkler, and D. Christensen National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-5500-57441 January 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, Colorado 80401

  20. Systematic parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis using a multidimensional PEMFC model coupled with DAKOTA.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Chao Yang; Luo, Gang; Jiang, Fangming; Carnes, Brian; Chen, Ken Shuang

    2010-05-01

    Current computational models for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) include a large number of parameters such as boundary conditions, material properties, and numerous parameters used in sub-models for membrane transport, two-phase flow and electrochemistry. In order to successfully use a computational PEMFC model in design and optimization, it is important to identify critical parameters under a wide variety of operating conditions, such as relative humidity, current load, temperature, etc. Moreover, when experimental data is available in the form of polarization curves or local distribution of current and reactant/product species (e.g., O2, H2O concentrations), critical parameters can be estimated in order to enable the model to better fit the data. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are typically performed using manual adjustment of parameters, which is also common in parameter studies. We present work to demonstrate a systematic approach based on using a widely available toolkit developed at Sandia called DAKOTA that supports many kinds of design studies, such as sensitivity analysis as well as optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the present work, we couple a multidimensional PEMFC model (which is being developed, tested and later validated in a joint effort by a team from Penn State Univ. and Sandia National Laboratories) with DAKOTA through the mapping of model parameters to system responses. Using this interface, we demonstrate the efficiency of performing simple parameter studies as well as identifying critical parameters using sensitivity analysis. Finally, we show examples of optimization and parameter estimation using the automated capability in DAKOTA.

  1. A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; Kaufman, Jason; Morton, April M.; Thakur, Gautam; Piburn, Jesse; Moehl, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including

  2. A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; Kaufman, Jason; Morton, April M.; Thakur, Gautam; Piburn, Jesse; Moehl, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information

  3. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our

  4. Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiore, A M; Dentener, F J; Wild, O; Cuvelier, C; Schultz, M G; Hess, P; Textor, C; Schulz, M; Doherty, R; Horowitz, L W; MacKenzie, I A; Sanderson, M G; Shindell, D T; Stevenson, D S; Szopa, S; Van Dingenen, R; Zeng, G; Atherton, C; Bergmann, D; Bey, I; Carmichael, G; Collins, W J; Duncan, B N; Faluvegi, G; Folberth, G; Gauss, M; Gong, S; Hauglustaine, D; Holloway, T; Isaksen, I A; Jacob, D J; Jonson, J E; Kaminski, J W; Keating, T J; Lupu, A; Marmer, E; Montanaro, V; Park, R; Pitari, G; Pringle, K J; Pyle, J A; Schroeder, S; Vivanco, M G; Wind, P; Wojcik, G; Wu, S; Zuber, A

    2008-10-16

    Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest

  5. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  6. Off-Highway Gasoline Consuption Estimation Models Used in the Federal Highway Administration Attribution Process: 2008 Updates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, Ho-Ling; Davis, Stacy Cagle

    2009-12-01

    This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the second major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that is

  7. A mathematical model for the estimation of flue temperature in a coke oven

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, K.I.; Kim, S.Y.; Suo, J.S.; Hur, N.S.; Kang, I.S.; Lee, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    The coke plants at the Kwangyang works has adopted an Automatic Battery Control (ABC) system which consists of four main parts, battery heating control, underfiring heat and waste gas oxygen control, pushing and charging schedule and Autotherm-S that measures heating wall temperature during pushing. The measured heating wall temperature is used for calculating Mean Battery Temperature (MBT) which is average temperature of flues for a battery, but the Autotherm-S system can not provide the flue temperatures of an oven. This work attempted to develop mathematical models for the estimation of the flue temperature using the measured heating wall temperature and to examine fitness of the mathematical model for the coke plant operation by analysis of raw gas temperature at the stand pipe. Through this work it is possible to reflect heating wall temperature in calculating MBT for battery heating control without the interruption caused by a maintenance break.

  8. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; Zhao, Huabiao; Joswiak, Daniel R.; Li, Jiule; Xie, Ying

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia has the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.

  9. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; et al

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia hasmore » the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.« less

  10. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-07-15

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  11. sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-10-06

    The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The software can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.

  12. sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-10-06

    The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The softwaremore » can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.« less

  13. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass to be Produced at Hanford by Implementing Current Advanced Glass Formulation Efforts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vienna, John D.; Kim, Dong-Sang; Skorski, Daniel C.; Matyas, Josef

    2013-07-31

    Recent glass formulation and melter testing data have suggested that significant increases in waste loading in HLW and LAW glasses are possible over current system planning estimates. The data (although limited in some cases) were evaluated to determine a set of constraints and models that could be used to estimate the maximum loading of specific waste compositions in glass. It is recommended that these models and constraints be used to estimate the likely HLW and LAW glass volumes that would result if the current glass formulation studies are successfully completed. It is recognized that some of the models are preliminary in nature and will change in the coming years. Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed before they could be used in plant operations. The models and constraints are only meant to give an indication of rough glass volumes and are not intended to be used in plant operation or waste form qualification activities. A current research program is in place to develop the data, models, and uncertainty descriptions for that purpose. A fundamental tenet underlying the research reported in this document is to try to be less conservative than previous studies when developing constraints for estimating the glass to be produced by implementing current advanced glass formulation efforts. The less conservative approach documented herein should allow for the estimate of glass masses that may be realized if the current efforts in advanced glass formulations are completed over the coming years and are as successful as early indications suggest they may be. Because of this approach there is an unquantifiable uncertainty in the ultimate glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered along with other system uncertainties such as waste compositions and amounts to be immobilized, split factors between LAW and HLW, etc.

  14. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  15. Fact #718: March 12, 2012 Number of Flex-Fuel Models Offered Increased in 2011

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    General Motors (GM), Ford, and Chrysler have produced many different models of flex-fuel vehicles (cars and light trucks) over the last five years. In 2011, the number of models offered by those...

  16. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  17. Parametric Hazard Function Estimation.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-09-13

    Version 00 Phaze performs statistical inference calculations on a hazard function (also called a failure rate or intensity function) based on reported failure times of components that are repaired and restored to service. Three parametric models are allowed: the exponential, linear, and Weibull hazard models. The inference includes estimation (maximum likelihood estimators and confidence regions) of the parameters and of the hazard function itself, testing of hypotheses such as increasing failure rate, and checking ofmore » the model assumptions.« less

  18. Experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments by plastic hinge models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sogo, T.; Ujihashi, S.; Matsumoto, H.; Adachi, T.

    1995-12-31

    In the present paper, the experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments for metallic materials is investigated. The three-point bending, test under impact and static loads is applied to aluminum alloy (JIS A6063S) and mild steel (JIS SS400). It is confirmed that tile dynamic bending deformations in three-point bending test can be modeled as a plastic hinge, tile experimental results show that the consumed energies of the specimens are proportional to the bending angles. The ratio of the consumed energy to the bending angle is approximately equal to the plastic bending moment. In the case of aluminum alloy, the dynamic plastic bending moments for the different average bending angular velocities coincide with the static plastic bending moments. On the other hand, in the case of mild steel, the dynamic plastic bending moments are proportional to the average bending angular velocities. As a result, we confirm that the present method based on the plastic hinge model and the consumed energy is efficient for determining tile dynamic plastic bending moment.

  19. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  20. An international comparison of models and approaches for the estimation of the radiological exposure of non-human biota.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beresford, N. A.; Balonov, M.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Brown, J.; Copperstone, D.; Hingston, J. L.; Horyna, J.; Hosseini, A.; Howard, B. J.; Kamboj, S.; Nedveckaite, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Sazykina, T.; Vives i Batlle, J.; Yankovich , T. L.; Yu, C.; Environmental Science Division; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Inter. Atomic Energy Agency; Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire; Norwegian Radiatioin Protection Authority; England & Wales Environment Agency; SUJB; Inst. of Physics; SCK CEN; SPA-Typhoon; Westlakes Scientific Consulting Limited; Atomic Energy Canada Limited

    2008-01-01

    Over the last decade a number of models and approaches have been developed for the estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiations. In some countries these are now being used in regulatory assessments. However, to date there has been no attempt to compare the outputs of the different models used. This paper presents the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS Biota Working Group which compares the predictions of a number of such models in model-model and model-data inter-comparisons.

  1. 3-way Networks: Application of Hypergraphs for Modelling Increased Complexity in Comparative Genomics

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Weighill, Deborah A.; Jacobson, Daniel A.

    2015-03-27

    Herein we present and develop the theory of 3-way networks, a type of hypergraph in which each edge models relationships between triplets of objects as opposed to pairs of objects as done by standard network models. We explore approaches of how to prune these 3-way networks, illustrate their utility in comparative genomics and demonstrate how they find relationships which would be missed by standard 2-way network models using a phylogenomic dataset of 211 bacterial genomes.

  2. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  3. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, Jennifer M.; Turner, William J. N.; Walker, Iain S.; Singer, Brett C.

    2015-01-19

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector's energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level. The Incremental Ventilation Energy (IVE) model developed in this study combines the output of simple air exchange models with a limited set of housing characteristics to estimate the associated change in energy demand of homes. The IVE model was designed specifically to enable modellers to use existing databases of housing characteristics to determine the impact of ventilation policy change on a population scale. The IVE model estimates of energy change when applied to US homes with limited parameterisation are shown to be comparable to the estimates of a well-validated, complex residential energy model.

  4. Modeling spatial patterns in soil arsenic to estimate natural baseline concentrations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Venteris, Erik R.; Basta, Nicolas T.; Bigham, Jerry M.; Rea, Ron

    2014-05-09

    ABSTRACT Arsenic in soil is an important public health concern. Toxicity guidelines and models based on laboratory studies (i.e., U.S. EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System) should consider natural soil As concentrations to avoid unnecessary remediation burdens on society. We used soil and stream sediment samples from the USGS National Geochemical Survey database to assess the spatial distribution of natural As in a 1.16E+5 km2 area. Samples were collected at 348 soil and 144 stream locations, providing approximately one sample for every 290 km2. Sample sites were selected to minimize the potential influence of anthropogenic inputs. Samples were processed using acid digestion of whole samples (concentrated HCl and ascorbic acid) and concentrations were measured using hydride-generation atomic absorption spectrometry. Soil As ranged from 2.0 to 45.6 mg kg-1. Geostatistical techniques were used to model and map the spatial variability of As. The mean and variance at unsampled locations were estimated using sequential Gaussian simulation. Five areas of elevated concentration (> the median of 10 mg kg-1) were identified and the relationships to geologic parent materials, glacial sedimentation patterns, and soil conditions interpreted. Our results showed As concentrations >10 mg kg-1 were common, and >20 mg kg-1 were not unusual for the central and west central portions of Ohio (USA). In contrast, concentrations <4 mg kg-1 were rare. Measured concentrations typically exceeded the soil As human generic screening levels of 0.39 mg/kg (1); the calculated value that corresponds to a cancer risk level of 1 in 1,000,000 for soil ingestion. Because the As content of Ohio soils is similar to many world soils, the USEPA generic soil screening level of 0.39 mg/kg is of little utility. A more useful and practical approach would be the uses of natural background levels. Regional soil As patterns based on geology and biogeochemistry and not political boundaries should be used

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-02-20

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. Appendix A: GPRA08 benefits estimates: NEMS and MARKAL Model Baseline Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-27

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-12-13

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. Load Modeling and State Estimation Methods for Power Distribution Systems: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tom McDermott

    2010-05-07

    The project objective was to provide robust state estimation for distribution systems, comparable to what has been available on transmission systems for decades. This project used an algorithm called Branch Current State Estimation (BCSE), which is more effective than classical methods because it decouples the three phases of a distribution system, and uses branch current instead of node voltage as a state variable, which is a better match to current measurement.

  6. SU-E-J-01: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Estimation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dhou, S; Hurwitz, M; Lewis, J; Mishra, P

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: 3D motion modeling derived from 4DCT images, taken days or weeks before treatment, cannot reliably represent patient anatomy on the day of treatment. We develop a method to generate motion models based on 4DCBCT acquired at the time of treatment, and apply the model to estimate 3D time-varying images (referred to as 3D fluoroscopic images). Methods: Motion models are derived through deformable registration between each 4DCBCT phase, and principal component analysis (PCA) on the resulting displacement vector fields. 3D fluoroscopic images are estimated based on cone-beam projections simulating kV treatment imaging. PCA coefficients are optimized iteratively through comparison of these cone-beam projections and projections estimated based on the motion model. Digital phantoms reproducing ten patient motion trajectories, and a physical phantom with regular and irregular motion derived from measured patient trajectories, are used to evaluate the method in terms of tumor localization, and the global voxel intensity difference compared to ground truth. Results: Experiments included: 1) assuming no anatomic or positioning changes between 4DCT and treatment time; and 2) simulating positioning and tumor baseline shifts at the time of treatment compared to 4DCT acquisition. 4DCBCT were reconstructed from the anatomy as seen at treatment time. In case 1) the tumor localization error and the intensity differences in ten patient were smaller using 4DCT-based motion model, possible due to superior image quality. In case 2) the tumor localization error and intensity differences were 2.85 and 0.15 respectively, using 4DCT-based motion models, and 1.17 and 0.10 using 4DCBCT-based models. 4DCBCT performed better due to its ability to reproduce daily anatomical changes. Conclusion: The study showed an advantage of 4DCBCT-based motion models in the context of 3D fluoroscopic images estimation. Positioning and tumor baseline shift uncertainties were mitigated by the 4DCBCT

  7. Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small angle neutron scattering

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Rui; Liu, Shimin; Bahadur, Jitendra; Elsworth, Derek; Melnichenko, Yuri; He, Lilin; Wang, Yi

    2015-09-04

    Gas diffusion in coal is controlled by nano-structure of the pores. The interconnectivity of pores not only determines the dynamics of gas transport in the coal matrix but also influences the mechanical strength. In this study, small angle neutron scattering (SANS) was employed to quantify pore accessibility for two coal samples, one of sub-bituminous rank and the other of anthracite rank. Moreover, a theoretical pore accessibility model was proposed based on scattering intensities under both vacuum and zero average contrast (ZAC) conditions. Our results show that scattering intensity decreases with increasing gas pressure using deuterated methane (CD4) at low Qmore » values for both coals. Pores smaller than 40 nm in radius are less accessible for anthracite than sub-bituminous coal. On the contrary, when the pore radius is larger than 40 nm, the pore accessibility of anthracite becomes larger than that of sub-bituminous coal. Only 20% of pores are accessible to CD4 for anthracite and 37% for sub-bituminous coal, where the pore radius is 16 nm. For these two coals, pore accessibility and pore radius follows a power-law relationship.« less

  8. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

    2012-10-15

    contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.

  9. Model-based PSF and MTF estimation and validation from skeletal clinical CT images

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pakdel, Amirreza; Mainprize, James G.; Robert, Normand; Fialkov, Jeffery; Whyne, Cari M.

    2014-01-15

    Purpose: A method was developed to correct for systematic errors in estimating the thickness of thin bones due to image blurring in CT images using bone interfaces to estimate the point-spread-function (PSF). This study validates the accuracy of the PSFs estimated using said method from various clinical CT images featuring cortical bones. Methods: Gaussian PSFs, characterized by a different extent in the z (scan) direction than in the x and y directions were obtained using our method from 11 clinical CT scans of a cadaveric craniofacial skeleton. These PSFs were estimated for multiple combinations of scanning parameters and reconstruction methods. The actual PSF for each scan setting was measured using the slanted-slit technique within the image slice plane and the longitudinal axis. The Gaussian PSF and the corresponding modulation transfer function (MTF) are compared against the actual PSF and MTF for validation. Results: The differences (errors) between the actual and estimated full-width half-max (FWHM) of the PSFs were 0.09 0.05 and 0.14 0.11 mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The overall errors in the predicted frequencies measured at 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5% MTF levels were 0.06 0.07 and 0.06 0.04 cycles/mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The accuracy of the estimates was dependent on whether they were reconstructed with a standard kernel (Toshiba's FC68, mean error of 0.06 0.05 mm, MTF mean error 0.02 0.02 cycles/mm) or a high resolution bone kernel (Toshiba's FC81, PSF FWHM error 0.12 0.03 mm, MTF mean error 0.09 0.08 cycles/mm). Conclusions: The method is accurate in 3D for an image reconstructed using a standard reconstruction kernel, which conforms to the Gaussian PSF assumption but less accurate when using a high resolution bone kernel. The method is a practical and self-contained means of estimating the PSF in clinical CT images featuring cortical bones, without the need phantoms or any prior knowledge about the scanner

  10. Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woods, J.; Winkler, J.; Christensen, D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model, and its suitability for building simulations. The EMPD model is a compromise between the simple, inaccurate effective capacitance approach and the complex, yet accurate, finite-difference approach. Two formulations of the EMPD model were examined, including the model used in the EnergyPlus building simulation software. An error in the EMPD model we uncovered was fixed with the release of EnergyPlus version 7.2, and the EMPD model in earlier versions of EnergyPlus should not be used.

  11. WAXS fat subtraction model to estimate differential linear scattering coefficients of fatless breast tissue: Phantom materials evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tang, Robert Y.; Laamanen, Curtis McDonald, Nancy; LeClair, Robert J.

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: Develop a method to subtract fat tissue contributions to wide-angle x-ray scatter (WAXS) signals of breast biopsies in order to estimate the differential linear scattering coefficients ?{sub s} of fatless tissue. Cancerous and fibroglandular tissue can then be compared independent of fat content. In this work phantom materials with known compositions were used to test the efficacy of the WAXS subtraction model. Methods: Each sample 5 mm in diameter and 5 mm thick was interrogated by a 50 kV 2.7 mm diameter beam for 3 min. A 25 mm{sup 2} by 1 mm thick CdTe detector allowed measurements of a portion of the ? = 6 scattered field. A scatter technique provided means to estimate the incident spectrum N{sub 0}(E) needed in the calculations of ?{sub s}[x(E, ?)] where x is the momentum transfer argument. Values of ?{sup }{sub s} for composite phantoms consisting of three plastic layers were estimated and compared to the values obtained via the sum ?{sup }{sub s}{sup ?}(x)=?{sub 1}?{sub s1}(x)+?{sub 2}?{sub s2}(x)+?{sub 3}?{sub s3}(x), where ?{sub i} is the fractional volume of the ith plastic component. Water, polystyrene, and a volume mixture of 0.6 water + 0.4 polystyrene labelled as fibphan were chosen to mimic cancer, fat, and fibroglandular tissue, respectively. A WAXS subtraction model was used to remove the polystyrene signal from tissue composite phantoms so that the ?{sub s} of water and fibphan could be estimated. Although the composite samples were layered, simulations were performed to test the models under nonlayered conditions. Results: The well known ?{sub s} signal of water was reproduced effectively between 0.5 < x < 1.6 nm{sup ?1}. The ?{sup }{sub s} obtained for the heterogeneous samples agreed with ?{sup }{sub s}{sup ?}. Polystyrene signals were subtracted successfully from composite phantoms. The simulations validated the usefulness of the WAXS models for nonlayered biopsies. Conclusions: The methodology to measure ?{sub s} of homogeneous

  12. Further evaluations of the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system for the estimation of the fate of atmospheric nitrogen

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garrison, M.; Gill, S.; Sherwell, J.

    1999-07-01

    The CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system has been used to estimate nitrogen deposition in an area surrounding Baltimore and the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Comprehensive NO{sub x} emissions inventories and meteorological data bases have been developed to conduct the modeling. A previous study reported on an evaluation of predicted non-ammonia, inorganic nitrogen wet deposition rates compared to measured rates at two NADP/NTN sites in Maryland. This paper presents the results of an expanded evaluation of the performance of the modeling system. Data collected at a total of 38 monitoring stations located in or near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, including NADP/NTN, CASTNET, and AIRS sites, have been used to conduct evaluations of the model's ability to predict concentrations of nitric acid, particulate nitrate, and NO{sub x} in addition to wet nitrate deposition. This expanded evaluation has allowed for the testing of additional model technical options in an attempt to improve the performance when compared to measured data. Results of this evaluation are expected to allow for better estimates of the impacts of nitrogen species formed from utility and other anthropogenic sources of NO{sub x} on the environment in Maryland.

  13. Appendix A - GPRA06 benefits estimates: MARKAL and NEMS model baseline cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    NEMS is an integrated energy model of the U.S. energy system developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for forecasting and policy analysis purposes.

  14. Validation of the materials-process-product model (coal SNG). [Estimating method for comparing processes, changing assumptions and technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albanese, A.; Bhagat, N.; Friend, L.; Lamontagne, J.; Pouder, R.; Vinjamuri, G.

    1980-03-01

    The use of coal as a source of high Btu gas is currently viewed as one possible means of supplementing dwindling natural gas supplies. While certain coal gasification processes have demonstrated technical feasibility, much uncertainty and inconsistency remains regarding the capital and operating costs of large scale coal conversion facilities; cost estimates may vary by as much as 50%. Studies conducted for the American Gas Association (AGA) and US Energy Research and Development Administration by C.F. Braun and Co. have defined technical specifications and cost guidelines for estimating costs of coal gasification technologies (AGA Guidelines). Based on the AGA Guidelines, Braun has also prepared cost estimates for selected coal gasification processes. Recent efforts by International Research and Technology Inc. (IR and T) have led to development of the Materials-Process-Product Model (MPPM), a comprehensive anaytic tool for evaluation of processes and costs for coal gasification and other coal conversion technologies. This validation of the MPPM presents a comparison of engineering and cost computation methodologies employed in the MPPM to those employed by Braun and comparison of MPPM results to Braun cost estimates. These comparisons indicate that the MPPM has the potential to be a valuable tool for assisting in the evaluation of coal gasification technologies.

  15. Estimates of Radioxenon Released from Southern Hemisphere Medical isotope Production Facilities Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Friese, Judah I.; Lowrey, Justin D.; McIntyre, Justin I.; Miley, Harry S.; Schrom, Brian T.

    2014-09-01

    Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty monitors the atmosphere for radioactive xenon leaking from underground nuclear explosions. Emissions from medical isotope production represent a challenging background signal when determining whether measured radioxenon in the atmosphere is associated with a nuclear explosion prohibited by the treaty. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) operates a reactor and medical isotope production facility in Lucas Heights, Australia. This study uses two years of release data from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility and Xe-133 data from three IMS sampling locations to estimate the annual releases of Xe-133 from medical isotope production facilities in Argentina, South Africa, and Indonesia. Atmospheric dilution factors derived from a global atmospheric transport model were used in an optimization scheme to estimate annual release values by facility. The annual releases of about 6.8×1014 Bq from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility are in good agreement with the sampled concentrations at these three IMS sampling locations. Annual release estimates for the facility in South Africa vary from 1.2×1016 to 2.5×1016 Bq and estimates for the facility in Indonesia vary from 6.1×1013 to 3.6×1014 Bq. Although some releases from the facility in Argentina may reach these IMS sampling locations, the solution to the objective function is insensitive to the magnitude of those releases.

  16. Estimation of net primary productivity using a process-based model in Gansu Province, Northwest China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Peijuan; Xie, Donghui; Zhou, Yuyu; E, Youhao; Zhu, Qijiang

    2014-01-16

    The ecological structure in the arid and semi-arid region of Northwest China with forest, grassland, agriculture, Gobi, and desert, is complex, vulnerable, and unstable. It is a challenging and sustaining job to keep the ecological structure and improve its ecological function. Net primary productivity (NPP) modeling can help to improve the understanding of the ecosystem, and therefore, improve ecological efficiency. The boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model provides the possibility of NPP modeling in terrestrial ecosystem, but it has some limitations for application in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper we improve the BEPS model, in terms of its water cycle by adding the processes of infiltration and surface runoff, to be applicable in arid and semi-arid regions. We model the NPP of forest, grass, and crop in Gansu Province as an experimental area in Northwest China in 2003 using the improved BEPS model, parameterized with moderate resolution remote sensing imageries and meteorological data. The modeled NPP using improved BEPS agrees better with the ground measurements in Qilian Mountain than that with original BEPS, with a higher R2 of 0.746 and lower root mean square error (RMSE) of 46.53 gC/m2 compared to R2 of 0.662 and RMSE of 60.19 gC/m2 from original BEPS. The modeled NPP of three vegetation types using improved BEPS show evident differences compared to that using original BEPS, with the highest difference ratio of 9.21% in forest and the lowest value of 4.29% in crop. The difference ratios between different vegetation types lie on the dependence on natural water sources. The modeled NPP in five geographic zones using improved BEPS are higher than those with original BEPS, with higher difference ratio in dry zones and lower value in wet zones.

  17. Testing of a model to estimate vapor concentration of various organic chemicals. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bakalyar, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    A model developed by Dr. Parker C. Reist to predict the build-up and decay rates of vapor concentrations following a chemical spill and clean-up was tested. The chemicals tested were: acetone, butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, hexane, methylene chloride, methyl ethyl ketone, and toluene. The evaporation rates of these chemicals were determined both by prediction, using a model developed by I. Kawamura and D. Mackay, and empirically and these rates were used in the Reist model. Chamber experiments were done to measure actual building-up and decay of vapor concentrations for simulated spills and simulated clean-up.

  18. Estimating Adult Chinook Salmon Exposure to Dissolved Gas Supersaturation Downstream of Hydroelectric Dams Using Telemetry and Hydrodynamic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Eric L.; Clabough, Tami S.; Peery, Christopher A.; Bennett, David H.; bjornn, Theodore C.; Caudill, Christopher C.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2007-11-01

    Gas bubble disease (GBD) has been recognized for years as a potential problem for fishes in the Columbia River basin. GBD results from exposure to gas supersaturated water created by discharge over dam spillways. Spill typically creates a downstream plume of water with high total dissolved gas supersaturation (TDGS) that may be positioned along either shore or mid-channel, depending on dam operations. We obtained spatial data on fish migration paths and migration depths for 228 adult spring and summer Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, during 2000. Migration paths were compared to output from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and dissolved gas model to estimate the potential for GBD expression and to test for behavioral avoidance of the high TDGS plume in unrestrained fish migrating under field conditions. Consistent with our previous estimates using single-location estimates of TDGS, we observed salmon swam sufficiently deep in the water column to receive complete hydrostatic compensation 95.9% of time spent in the Bonneville tailrace and 88.1% of the time in the Ice Harbor tailrace. The majority of depth uncompensated exposure occurred at TDGS levels > 115%. Adult spring and summer Chinook salmon tended to migrate near the shoreline. Adults moved into the high dissolved gas plume as often as they moved out of it downstream of Bonneville Dam, providing no evidence that adults moved laterally to avoid areas with elevated dissolved gas levels. The strong influence of dam operations on the position of the high-TDGS plume and shoreline-orientation behaviors of adults suggest that exposure of adult salmonids to high-TDGS conditions may be minimized using operational conditions that direct the plume mid-channel, particularly during periods of high discharge and spill. More generally, our approach illustrates the potential for combined field and modeling efforts to estimate the fine-scale environmental conditions encountered by fishes in natural and regulated rivers.

  19. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; et al

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research andmore » Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.« less

  20. A Phenomenological Model of Bulk Force in a Li-Ion Battery Pack and Its Application to State of Charge Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mohan, S; Kim, Y; Siegel, JB; Samad, NA; Stefanopoulou, AG

    2014-09-19

    A phenomenological model of the bulk force exerted by a lithium ion cell during various charge, discharge, and temperature operating conditions is developed. The measured and modeled force resembles the carbon expansion behavior associated with the phase changes during intercalation, as there are ranges of state of charge (SOC) with a gradual force increase and ranges of SOC with very small change in force. The model includes the influence of temperature on the observed force capturing the underlying thermal expansion phenomena. Moreover the model is capable of describing the changes in force during thermal transients, when internal battery heating due to high C-rates or rapid changes in the ambient temperature, which create a mismatch in the temperature of the cell and the holding fixture. It is finally shown that the bulk force model can be very useful for a more accurate and robust SOC estimation based on fusing information from voltage and force (or pressure) measurements. (C) The Author(s) 2014. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 License (CC BY-NC-ND, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is not changed in any way and is properly cited. For permission for commercial reuse, please email oa@electrochem.org. All rights reserved.

  1. Measuring and Modeling Fault Density for Plume-Fault Encounter Probability Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, P.D.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Nicot, J.-P.

    2011-05-15

    Emission of carbon dioxide from fossil-fueled power generation stations contributes to global climate change. Storage of this carbon dioxide within the pores of geologic strata (geologic carbon storage) is one approach to mitigating the climate change that would otherwise occur. The large storage volume needed for this mitigation requires injection into brine-filled pore space in reservoir strata overlain by cap rocks. One of the main concerns of storage in such rocks is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available. This necessitates a method for using available fault data to develop an estimate of the likelihood of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault, primarily due to buoyancy. Fault population statistics provide one of the main inputs to calculate the encounter probability. Previous fault population statistics work is shown to be applicable to areal fault density statistics. This result is applied to a case study in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin with the result that the probability of a carbon dioxide plume from a previously planned injection had a 3% chance of encountering a fully seal offsetting fault.

  2. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean -Christophe; Hall, Stephanie D.; Jensen, Michael P.; et al

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  3. Evaluation of Blade-Strike Models for Estimating the Biological Performance of Large Kaplan Hydro Turbines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Ploskey, Gene R.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2005-11-30

    BioIndex testing of hydro-turbines is sought as an analog to the hydraulic index testing conducted on hydro-turbines to optimize their power production efficiency. In BioIndex testing the goal is to identify those operations within the range identified by Index testing where the survival of fish passing through the turbine is maximized. BioIndex testing includes the immediate tailrace region as well as the turbine environment between a turbine's intake trashracks and the exit of its draft tube. The US Army Corps of Engineers and the Department of Energy have been evaluating a variety of means, such as numerical and physical turbine models, to investigate the quality of flow through a hydro-turbine and other aspects of the turbine environment that determine its safety for fish. The goal is to use these tools to develop hypotheses identifying turbine operations and predictions of their biological performance that can be tested at prototype scales. Acceptance of hypotheses would be the means for validation of new operating rules for the turbine tested that would be in place when fish were passing through the turbines. The overall goal of this project is to evaluate the performance of numerical blade strike models as a tool to aid development of testable hypotheses for bioIndexing. Evaluation of the performance of numerical blade strike models is accomplished by comparing predictions of fish mortality resulting from strike by turbine runner blades with observations made using live test fish at mainstem Columbia River Dams and with other predictions of blade strike made using observations of beads passing through a 1:25 scale physical turbine model.

  4. Fact #812: January 13, 2014 The Number of Models Achieving 40 MPG or More is Increasing Rapidly

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    For the 2009 model year, there were only two models that achieved a combined EPA rating of 40 MPG or higher. By the 2013 model year, that number rose to 30 models. In 2009, the only two models with...

  5. Estimating Demand Response Load Impacts: Evaluation of BaselineLoad Models for Non-Residential Buildings in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coughlin, Katie; Piette, Mary Ann; Goldman, Charles; Kiliccote,Sila

    2008-01-01

    Both Federal and California state policymakers areincreasingly interested in developing more standardized and consistentapproaches to estimate and verify the load impacts of demand responseprograms and dynamic pricing tariffs. This study describes a statisticalanalysis of the performance of different models used to calculate thebaseline electric load for commercial buildings participating in ademand-response (DR) program, with emphasis onthe importance of weathereffects. During a DR event, a variety of adjustments may be made tobuilding operation, with the goal of reducing the building peak electricload. In order to determine the actual peak load reduction, an estimateof what the load would have been on the day of the event without any DRactions is needed. This baseline load profile (BLP) is key to accuratelyassessing the load impacts from event-based DR programs and may alsoimpact payment settlements for certain types of DR programs. We testedseven baseline models on a sample of 33 buildings located in California.These models can be loosely categorized into two groups: (1) averagingmethods, which use some linear combination of hourly load values fromprevious days to predict the load on the event, and (2) explicit weathermodels, which use a formula based on local hourly temperature to predictthe load. The models were tested both with and without morningadjustments, which use data from the day of the event to adjust theestimated BLP up or down.Key findings from this study are: - The accuracyof the BLP model currently used by California utilities to estimate loadreductions in several DR programs (i.e., hourly usage in highest 3 out of10 previous days) could be improved substantially if a morning adjustmentfactor were applied for weather-sensitive commercial and institutionalbuildings. - Applying a morning adjustment factor significantly reducesthe bias and improves the accuracy of all BLP models examined in oursample of buildings. - For buildings with low load

  6. Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Medeiros, Stephen; Hagen, Scott; Weishampel, John; Angelo, James

    2015-03-25

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne lidar are traditionally unreliable in coastal salt marshes due to the inability of the laser to penetrate the dense grasses and reach the underlying soil. To that end, we present a novel processing methodology that uses ASTER Band 2 (visible red), an interferometric SAR (IfSAR) digital surface model, and lidar-derived canopy height to classify biomass density using both a three-class scheme (high, medium and low) and a two-class scheme (high and low). Elevation adjustments associated with these classes using both median and quartile approaches were applied to adjust lidar-derived elevation values closer tomore » true bare earth elevation. The performance of the method was tested on 229 elevation points in the lower Apalachicola River Marsh. The two-class quartile-based adjusted DEM produced the best results, reducing the RMS error in elevation from 0.65 m to 0.40 m, a 38% improvement. The raw mean errors for the lidar DEM and the adjusted DEM were 0.61 ± 0.24 m and 0.32 ± 0.24 m, respectively, thereby reducing the high bias by approximately 49%.« less

  7. Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Medeiros, Stephen; Hagen, Scott; Weishampel, John; Angelo, James

    2015-03-25

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne lidar are traditionally unreliable in coastal salt marshes due to the inability of the laser to penetrate the dense grasses and reach the underlying soil. To that end, we present a novel processing methodology that uses ASTER Band 2 (visible red), an interferometric SAR (IfSAR) digital surface model, and lidar-derived canopy height to classify biomass density using both a three-class scheme (high, medium and low) and a two-class scheme (high and low). Elevation adjustments associated with these classes using both median and quartile approaches were applied to adjust lidar-derived elevation values closer to true bare earth elevation. The performance of the method was tested on 229 elevation points in the lower Apalachicola River Marsh. The two-class quartile-based adjusted DEM produced the best results, reducing the RMS error in elevation from 0.65 m to 0.40 m, a 38% improvement. The raw mean errors for the lidar DEM and the adjusted DEM were 0.61 ± 0.24 m and 0.32 ± 0.24 m, respectively, thereby reducing the high bias by approximately 49%.

  8. Estimating Methods

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Based on the project's scope, the purpose of the estimate, and the availability of estimating resources, the estimator can choose one or a combination of techniques when estimating an activity or project. Estimating methods, estimating indirect and direct costs, and other estimating considerations are discussed in this chapter.

  9. Lung motion estimation using dynamic point shifting: An innovative model based on a robust point matching algorithm

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yi, Jianbing; Yang, Xuan Li, Yan-Ran; Chen, Guoliang

    2015-10-15

    Purpose: Image-guided radiotherapy is an advanced 4D radiotherapy technique that has been developed in recent years. However, respiratory motion causes significant uncertainties in image-guided radiotherapy procedures. To address these issues, an innovative lung motion estimation model based on a robust point matching is proposed in this paper. Methods: An innovative robust point matching algorithm using dynamic point shifting is proposed to estimate patient-specific lung motion during free breathing from 4D computed tomography data. The correspondence of the landmark points is determined from the Euclidean distance between the landmark points and the similarity between the local images that are centered at points at the same time. To ensure that the points in the source image correspond to the points in the target image during other phases, the virtual target points are first created and shifted based on the similarity between the local image centered at the source point and the local image centered at the virtual target point. Second, the target points are shifted by the constrained inverse function mapping the target points to the virtual target points. The source point set and shifted target point set are used to estimate the transformation function between the source image and target image. Results: The performances of the authors’ method are evaluated on two publicly available DIR-lab and POPI-model lung datasets. For computing target registration errors on 750 landmark points in six phases of the DIR-lab dataset and 37 landmark points in ten phases of the POPI-model dataset, the mean and standard deviation by the authors’ method are 1.11 and 1.11 mm, but they are 2.33 and 2.32 mm without considering image intensity, and 1.17 and 1.19 mm with sliding conditions. For the two phases of maximum inhalation and maximum exhalation in the DIR-lab dataset with 300 landmark points of each case, the mean and standard deviation of target registration errors on the

  10. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Wofsy, Steve C.; Santoni, Gregory W.; Kort, Eric A.; Fischer, Marc L.; Trainer, Michael

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.

  11. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Wofsy, Steve C.; Santoni, Gregory W.; Kort, Eric A.; Fischer, Marc L.; Trainer, Michael

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.

  12. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    , targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

  13. Poster — Thur Eve — 44: Linearization of Compartmental Models for More Robust Estimates of Regional Hemodynamic, Metabolic and Functional Parameters using DCE-CT/PET Imaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blais, AR; Dekaban, M; Lee, T-Y

    2014-08-15

    Quantitative analysis of dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) data usually involves minimizing a cost function with nonlinear regression, wherein the choice of starting parameter values and the presence of local minima affect the bias and variability of the estimated kinetic parameters. These nonlinear methods can also require lengthy computation time, making them unsuitable for use in clinical settings. Kinetic modeling of PET aims to estimate the rate parameter k{sub 3}, which is the binding affinity of the tracer to a biological process of interest and is highly susceptible to noise inherent in PET image acquisition. We have developed linearized kinetic models for kinetic analysis of dynamic contrast enhanced computed tomography (DCE-CT)/PET imaging, including a 2-compartment model for DCE-CT and a 3-compartment model for PET. Use of kinetic parameters estimated from DCE-CT can stabilize the kinetic analysis of dynamic PET data, allowing for more robust estimation of k{sub 3}. Furthermore, these linearized models are solved with a non-negative least squares algorithm and together they provide other advantages including: 1) only one possible solution and they do not require a choice of starting parameter values, 2) parameter estimates are comparable in accuracy to those from nonlinear models, 3) significantly reduced computational time. Our simulated data show that when blood volume and permeability are estimated with DCE-CT, the bias of k{sub 3} estimation with our linearized model is 1.97 ± 38.5% for 1,000 runs with a signal-to-noise ratio of 10. In summary, we have developed a computationally efficient technique for accurate estimation of k{sub 3} from noisy dynamic PET data.

  14. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  15. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the

  16. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  17. Multi-scale geospatial agroecosystem modeling: a case study on the influence of soil data resolution on carbon budget estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, D.; Zhao, Kaiguang; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Xu, Min; Xiong, Wei; Zhang, Aiping; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; West, Tristram O.; Post, W. M.

    2014-05-01

    The development of effective measures to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration and mitigate negative impacts of climate change requires accurate quantification of the spatial variation and magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) flux. However, the spatial pattern and strength of terrestrial C sinks and sources remain uncertain. In this study, we designed a spatially-explicit agroecosystem modeling system by integrating the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with multiple sources of geospatial and surveyed datasets (including crop type map, elevation, climate forcing, fertilizer application, tillage type and distribution, and crop planting and harvesting date), and applied it to examine the sensitivity of cropland C flux simulations to two widely used soil databases (i.e. State Soil Geographic-STATSGO of a scale of 1:250,000 and Soil Survey Geographic-SSURGO of a scale of 1:24,000) in Iowa, USA. To efficiently execute numerous EPIC runs resulting from the use of high resolution spatial data (56m), we developed a parallelized version of EPIC. Both STATSGO and SSURGO led to similar simulations of crop yields and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) estimates at the State level. However, substantial differences were observed at the county and sub-county (grid) levels. In general, the fine resolution SSURGO data outperformed the coarse resolution STATSGO data for county-scale crop-yield simulation, and within STATSGO, the area-weighted approach provided more accurate results. Further analysis showed that spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated NEP were more sensitive to the resolution difference between SSURGO and STATSGO at the county or grid scale. For over 60% of the cropland areas in Iowa, the deviations between STATSGO- and SSURGO-derived NEP were larger than 1MgCha(-1)yr(-1), or about half of the average cropland NEP, highlighting the significant uncertainty in spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated C fluxes resulting from

  18. Source Term Estimation of Radioxenon Released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Reactors Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Biegalski, S.; Bowyer, Ted W.; Cooper, Matthew W.; Haas, Derek A.; Hayes, James C.; Hoffman, Ian; Korpach, E.; Yi, Jing; Miley, Harry S.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Ungar, R. Kurt; White, Brian; Woods, Vincent T.

    2014-01-01

    Systems designed to monitor airborne radionuclides released from underground nuclear explosions detected radioactive fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. Atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) of plumes of noble gases and particulates were performed soon after the accident to determine plausible detection locations of any radioactive releases to the atmosphere. We combine sampling data from multiple International Modeling System (IMS) locations in a new way to estimate the magnitude and time sequence of the releases. Dilution factors from the modeled plume at five different detection locations were combined with 57 atmospheric concentration measurements of 133-Xe taken from March 18 to March 23 to estimate the source term. This approach estimates that 59% of the 1.24×1019 Bq of 133-Xe present in the reactors at the time of the earthquake was released to the atmosphere over a three day period. Source term estimates from combinations of detection sites have lower spread than estimates based on measurements at single detection sites. Sensitivity cases based on data from four or more detection locations bound the source term between 35% and 255% of available xenon inventory.

  19. Estimation of unsaturated zone traveltimes for Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, using a source-responsive preferential-flow model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian A. Ebel; John R. Nimmo

    2009-09-11

    Traveltimes for contaminant transport by water from a point in the unsaturated zone to the saturated zone are a concern at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain in the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. Where nuclear tests were conducted in the unsaturated zone, contaminants must traverse hundreds of meters of variably saturated rock before they enter the saturated zone in the carbonate rock, where the regional groundwater system has the potential to carry them substantial distances to a location of concern. The unsaturated-zone portion of the contaminant transport path may cause a significant delay, in addition to the time required to travel within the saturated zone, and thus may be important in the overall evaluation of the potential hazard from contamination. Downward contaminant transport through the unsaturated zone occurs through various processes and pathways; this can lead to a broad distribution of contaminant traveltimes, including exceedingly slow and unexpectedly fast extremes. Though the bulk of mobile contaminant arrives between the time-scale end members, the fastest contaminant transport speed, in other words the speed determined by the combination of possible processes and pathways that would bring a measureable quantity of contaminant to the aquifer in the shortest time, carries particular regulatory significance because of its relevance in formulating the most conservative hazard-prevention scenarios. Unsaturated-zone flow is usually modeled as a diffusive process responding to gravity and pressure gradients as mediated by the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the materials traversed. The mathematical formulation of the diffuse-flow concept is known as Richards' equation, which when coupled to a solute transport equation, such as the advection-dispersion equation, provides a framework to simulate contaminant migration in the unsaturated zone. In recent decades awareness has increased that much fluid flow and contaminant transport within the unsaturated

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-10

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herschtal, Alan; Te Marvelde, Luc; Mengersen, Kerrie; Foroudi, Farshad; Eade, Thomas; Pham, Daniel; Caine, Hannah; Kron, Tomas

    2015-06-01

    Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

  5. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile; Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-03-15

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease.

  6. Lightweighting Automotive Materials for Increased Fuel Efficiency and Delivering Advanced Modeling and Simulation Capabilities to U.S. Manufacturers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hale, Steve

    2013-09-11

    Abstract The National Center for Manufacturing Sciences (NCMS) worked with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), to bring together research and development (R&D) collaborations to develop and accelerate the knowledgebase and infrastructure for lightweighting materials and manufacturing processes for their use in structural and applications in the automotive sector. The purpose/importance of this DOE program: • 2016 CAFÉ standards. • Automotive industry technology that shall adopt the insertion of lightweighting material concepts towards manufacturing of production vehicles. • Development and manufacture of advanced research tools for modeling and simulation (M&S) applications to reduce manufacturing and material costs. • U.S. competitiveness that will help drive the development and manufacture of the next generation of materials. NCMS established a focused portfolio of applied R&D projects utilizing lightweighting materials for manufacture into automotive structures and components. Areas that were targeted in this program: • Functionality of new lightweighting materials to meet present safety requirements. • Manufacturability using new lightweighting materials. • Cost reduction for the development and use of new lightweighting materials. The automotive industry’s future continuously evolves through innovation, and lightweight materials are key in achieving a new era of lighter, more efficient vehicles. Lightweight materials are among the technical advances needed to achieve fuel/energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: • Establish design criteria methodology to identify the best materials for lightweighting. • Employ state-of-the-art design tools for optimum material development for their specific applications. • Match new manufacturing technology to production volume. • Address new process variability with new production-ready processes.

  7. Reservoir Temperature Estimator

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-08

    The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst) is a program that can be used to estimate deep geothermal reservoir temperature and chemical parameters such as CO2 fugacity based on the water chemistry of shallower, cooler reservoir fluids. This code uses the plugin features provided in The Geochemist’s Workbench (Bethke and Yeakel, 2011) and interfaces with the model-independent parameter estimation code Pest (Doherty, 2005) to provide for optimization of the estimated parameters based on the minimization of themore » weighted sum of squares of a set of saturation indexes from a user-provided mineral assemblage.« less

  8. PROJECT PROFILE: Improving PV performance Estimates in the System Advisor Model with Component and System Reliability Metrics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This project will improve the forecasting of lifetime PV system performance as well as operations and maintenance costs by incorporating the Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model (PV-RPM) developed by Sandia into the widely-used Solar Advisor Model (SAM) software platform.

  9. Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS; Plett, GL

    2015-03-15

    This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) -- A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Mehos, M.; Short, W.; Heimiller, D.

    2006-04-01

    This paper presents the Concentrating Solar Deployment System Model (CSDS). CSDS is a multiregional, multitime-period, Geographic Information System (GIS), and linear programming model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the United States. CSDS is designed to address the principal market and policy issues related to the penetration of concentrating solar power (CSP) electric-sector technologies. This paper discusses the current structure, capabilities, and assumptions of the model. Additionally, results are presented for the impact of continued research and development (R&D) spending, an extension to the investment tax credit (ITC), and use of a production tax credit (PTC). CSDS is an extension of the Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). While WinDS examines issues related to wind, CSDS is an extension to analyze similar issues for CSP applications. Specifically, a detailed representation of parabolic trough systems with thermal storage has been developed within the existing structure.

  11. Aerosol single-scattering albedo over the global oceans: Comparing PARASOL retrievals with AERONET, OMI, and AeroCom models estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Bian, Huisheng; Curci, Gabriele; Myhre, Gunnar; van Noije, Twan; Schulz, Michael; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zhang, Kai

    2015-09-27

    The aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over the global oceans is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL satellite. The retrieved values for SSA and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) agree well with the ground-based measurements of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The global coverage provided by the PARASOL observations represents a unique opportunity to evaluate SSA and AOD simulated by atmospheric transport model runs, as performed in the AeroCom framework. The SSA estimate provided by the AeroCom models is generally higher than the SSA retrieved from both PARASOL and AERONET. On the other hand, the mean simulated AOD is about right or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the SSA by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and underestimate it at surface. This implies that aerosols have a potential stronger impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.

  12. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF{sub 6} cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    The transportation of UF{sup 6} is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800{degree}C (1475{degree}F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF{sup 6} when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF{sup 6} released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced.

  13. Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface and routing model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Li, Hongyi; Wang, JianJian

    2014-03-01

    A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50°N–50°S at relatively high spatial (~12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30°S–30°N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. Finally, there were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  14. Model-dependent estimate on the connection between fast radio bursts and ultra high energy cosmic rays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Xiang; Zhou, Bei; He, Hao-Ning; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Wei, Da-Ming

    2014-12-10

    The existence of fast radio bursts (FRBs), a new type of extragalatic transient, has recently been established, and quite a few models have been proposed. In this work, we discuss the possible connection between the FRB sources and ultra high energy (>10{sup 18} eV) cosmic rays. We show that in the blitzar model and the model of merging binary neutron stars, which includes the huge energy release of each FRB central engine together with the rather high rate of FRBs, the accelerated EeV cosmic rays may contribute significantly to the observed ones. In other FRB models, including, for example, the merger of double white dwarfs and the energetic magnetar radio flares, no significant EeV cosmic ray is expected. We also suggest that the mergers of double neutron stars, even if they are irrelevant to FRBs, may play a nonignorable role in producing EeV cosmic ray protons if supramassive neutron stars are formed in a sufficient fraction of mergers and the merger rate is ? 10{sup 3} yr{sup 1} Gpc{sup 3}. Such a possibility will be unambiguously tested in the era of gravitational wave astronomy.

  15. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, J. M.; Turner, W. J.N.; Walker, I. S.; Singer, B. C.

    2015-07-01

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector’s energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level.

  16. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  17. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  18. Natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project: Preliminary flood hazards estimates for screening Department of Energy sites, Albuquerque Operations Office

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Boissonnade, A.C.

    1988-05-01

    As part of an ongoing program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is directing the Natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project (NPHMP) on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE). A major part of this effort is the development of probabilistic definitions of natural phenomena hazards; seismic, wind, and flood. In this report the first phase of the evaluation of flood hazards at DOE sites is described. Unlike seismic and wind events, floods may not present a significant threat to the operations of all DOE sites. For example, at some sites physical circumstances may exist that effectively preclude the occurrence of flooding. As a result, consideration of flood hazards may not be required as part of the site design basis. In this case it is not necessary to perform a detailed flood hazard study at all DOE sites, such as those conducted for other natural phenomena hazards, seismic and wind. The scope of the preliminary flood hazard analysis is restricted to evaluating the flood hazards that may exist in proximity to a site. The analysis does involve an assessment of the potential encroachment of flooding on-site at individual facility locations. However, the preliminary flood hazard assessment does not consider localized flooding at a site due to precipitation (i.e., local run-off, storm sewer capacity, roof drainage). These issues are reserved for consideration by the DOE site manager. 11 refs., 84 figs., 61 tabs.

  19. Technology for Increasing Geothermal Energy Productivity. Computer Models to Characterize the Chemical Interactions of Goethermal Fluids and Injectates with Reservoir Rocks, Wells, Surface Equiptment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nancy Moller Weare

    2006-07-25

    This final report describes the results of a research program we carried out over a five-year (3/1999-9/2004) period with funding from a Department of Energy geothermal FDP grant (DE-FG07-99ID13745) and from other agencies. The goal of research projects in this program were to develop modeling technologies that can increase the understanding of geothermal reservoir chemistry and chemistry-related energy production processes. The ability of computer models to handle many chemical variables and complex interactions makes them an essential tool for building a fundamental understanding of a wide variety of complex geothermal resource and production chemistry. With careful choice of methodology and parameterization, research objectives were to show that chemical models can correctly simulate behavior for the ranges of fluid compositions, formation minerals, temperature and pressure associated with present and near future geothermal systems as well as for the very high PT chemistry of deep resources that is intractable with traditional experimental methods. Our research results successfully met these objectives. We demonstrated that advances in physical chemistry theory can be used to accurately describe the thermodynamics of solid-liquid-gas systems via their free energies for wide ranges of composition (X), temperature and pressure. Eight articles on this work were published in peer-reviewed journals and in conference proceedings. Four are in preparation. Our work has been presented at many workshops and conferences. We also considerably improved our interactive web site (geotherm.ucsd.edu), which was in preliminary form prior to the grant. This site, which includes several model codes treating different XPT conditions, is an effective means to transfer our technologies and is used by the geothermal community and other researchers worldwide. Our models have wide application to many energy related and other important problems (e.g., scaling prediction in petroleum

  20. Cost Estimating, Analysis, and Standardization

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1984-11-02

    To establish policy and responsibilities for: (a) developing and reviewing project cost estimates; (b) preparing independent cost estimates and analysis; (c) standardizing cost estimating procedures; and (d) improving overall cost estimating and analytical techniques, cost data bases, cost and economic escalation models, and cost estimating systems. Cancels DOE O 5700.2B, dated 8-5-1983; DOE O 5700.8, dated 5-27-1981; and HQ 1130.1A, dated 12-30-1981. Canceled by DOE O 5700.2D, dated 6-12-1992

  1. Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarquhar, Greg

    2015-12-28

    We proposed to analyze in-situ cloud data collected during ARM/ASR field campaigns to create databases of cloud microphysical properties and their uncertainties as needed for the development of improved cloud parameterizations for models and remote sensing retrievals, and for evaluation of model simulations and retrievals. In particular, we proposed to analyze data collected over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), the Storm Peak Laboratory Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) Experiment and the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign, over the North Slope of Alaska during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), and over the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) during The Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), to meet the following 3 objectives; derive statistical databases of single ice particle properties (aspect ratio AR, dominant habit, mass, projected area) and distributions of ice crystals (size distributions SDs, mass-dimension m-D, area-dimension A-D relations, mass-weighted fall speeds, single-scattering properties, total concentrations N, ice mass contents IWC), complete with uncertainty estimates; assess processes by which aerosols modulate cloud properties in arctic stratus and mid-latitude cumuli, and quantify aerosol’s influence in context of varying meteorological and surface conditions; and determine how ice cloud microphysical, single-scattering and fall-out properties and contributions of small ice crystals to such properties vary according to location, environment, surface, meteorological and aerosol conditions, and develop parameterizations of such effects.In this report we describe the accomplishments that we made on all 3 research objectives.

  2. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. In vitro-in vivo extrapolation of quantitative hepatic biotransformation data for fish - I. A review of methods, and strategies for incorporating intrinsic clearance estimates into chemical kinetic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nichols, John W.; Schultz, Irv R.; Fitzsimmons, Patrick N..

    2006-06-10

    Mammalian researchers have developed a stepwise approach to predict in vivo hepatic clearance from measurements of in vitro hepatic metabolism. The resulting clearance estimates have been used to screen drug candidates, identify potential drug-drug interactions, investigate idiosyncratic drug responses, and support toxicology risk assessments. In this report we review these methods, discuss their potential application to studies with fish, and describe how extrapolated values could be incorporated into well-known compartmental kinetic models. Empirical equations that relate extrapolation factors to chemical log Kow are given to facilitate the incorporation of metabolism data into bioconcentration and bioaccumulation models. Because they explicitly incorporate the concept of clearance, compartmental clearance volume models are particularly well suited for incorporating hepatic clearance estimates. The manner in which these clearance values are incorporated into a given model depends, however, on the measurement frame of reference. Procedures for the incorporation of in vitro metabolism data into physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are also described. Unlike most compartmental models, PBTK models are developed to describe the effects of metabolism in the tissue where it occurs. In addition, PBTK models are well suited to modeling metabolism in more than one tissue.

  12. Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahajan, Salil; Evans, Katherine J.; Hack, James J.; Truesdale, John

    2013-04-19

    The impact of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. Here, we present results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4-SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semi-direct effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1x, 2x, 5x and 10x an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining their estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semi-direct effect for the 1x experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ when the semi-direct effects are accounted for and 0.22 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ with only the direct effects considered. Global average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4 $\\%$ $W^{-1}m^{2}$ . The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4$^{\\circ}$N $ PW^{-1}$. Global average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the south tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere.

  13. Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and Optical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and Optical Model Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and ...

  14. Enhancing e-waste estimates: Improving data quality by multivariate Input–Output Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Feng; Huisman, Jaco; Stevels, Ab; Baldé, Cornelis Peter

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • A multivariate Input–Output Analysis method for e-waste estimates is proposed. • Applying multivariate analysis to consolidate data can enhance e-waste estimates. • We examine the influence of model selection and data quality on e-waste estimates. • Datasets of all e-waste related variables in a Dutch case study have been provided. • Accurate modeling of time-variant lifespan distributions is critical for estimate. - Abstract: Waste electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) is one of the fastest growing waste streams, which encompasses a wide and increasing spectrum of products. Accurate estimation of e-waste generation is difficult, mainly due to lack of high quality data referred to market and socio-economic dynamics. This paper addresses how to enhance e-waste estimates by providing techniques to increase data quality. An advanced, flexible and multivariate Input–Output Analysis (IOA) method is proposed. It links all three pillars in IOA (product sales, stock and lifespan profiles) to construct mathematical relationships between various data points. By applying this method, the data consolidation steps can generate more accurate time-series datasets from available data pool. This can consequently increase the reliability of e-waste estimates compared to the approach without data processing. A case study in the Netherlands is used to apply the advanced IOA model. As a result, for the first time ever, complete datasets of all three variables for estimating all types of e-waste have been obtained. The result of this study also demonstrates significant disparity between various estimation models, arising from the use of data under different conditions. It shows the importance of applying multivariate approach and multiple sources to improve data quality for modelling, specifically using appropriate time-varying lifespan parameters. Following the case study, a roadmap with a procedural guideline is provided to enhance e

  15. Cost Estimation Package

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter focuses on the components (or elements) of the cost estimation package and their documentation.

  16. Disk Quota Increase Request

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Disk Quota Increase Disk Quota Increase Request NERSC will consider reasonable requests for changes in disk space and inode limits. Please submit a request through the "Request ...

  17. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  18. Polymers with increased order

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sawan, Samuel P.; Talhi, Abdelhafid; Taylor, Craig M.

    1998-08-25

    The invention features polymers with increased order, and methods of making them featuring a dense gas.

  19. Lattice Boltzmann simulation of solute transport in heterogeneous porous media with conduits to estimate macroscopic continuous time random walk model parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anwar, S.; Cortis, A.; Sukop, M.

    2008-10-20

    Lattice Boltzmann models simulate solute transport in porous media traversed by conduits. Resulting solute breakthrough curves are fitted with Continuous Time Random Walk models. Porous media are simulated by damping flow inertia and, when the damping is large enough, a Darcy's Law solution instead of the Navier-Stokes solution normally provided by the lattice Boltzmann model is obtained. Anisotropic dispersion is incorporated using a direction-dependent relaxation time. Our particular interest is to simulate transport processes outside the applicability of the standard Advection-Dispersion Equation (ADE) including eddy mixing in conduits. The ADE fails to adequately fit any of these breakthrough curves.

  20. Check Estimates and Independent Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Check estimates and independent cost estimates (ICEs) are tools that can be used to validate a cost estimate. Estimate validation entails an objective review of the estimate to ensure that estimate criteria and requirements have been met and well documented, defensible estimate has been developed. This chapter describes check estimates and their procedures and various types of independent cost estimates.

  1. Estimation of placental and lactational transfer and tissue distribution of atrazine and its main metabolites in rodent dams, fetuses, and neonates with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Zhoumeng; Fisher, Jeffrey W.; Wang, Ran; Ross, Matthew K.; Filipov, Nikolay M.

    2013-11-15

    Atrazine (ATR) is a widely used chlorotriazine herbicide, a ubiquitous environmental contaminant, and a potential developmental toxicant. To quantitatively evaluate placental/lactational transfer and fetal/neonatal tissue dosimetry of ATR and its major metabolites, physiologically based pharmacokinetic models were developed for rat dams, fetuses and neonates. These models were calibrated using pharmacokinetic data from rat dams repeatedly exposed (oral gavage; 5 mg/kg) to ATR followed by model evaluation against other available rat data. Model simulations corresponded well to the majority of available experimental data and suggest that: (1) the fetus is exposed to both ATR and its major metabolite didealkylatrazine (DACT) at levels similar to maternal plasma levels, (2) the neonate is exposed mostly to DACT at levels two-thirds lower than maternal plasma or fetal levels, while lactational exposure to ATR is minimal, and (3) gestational carryover of DACT greatly affects its neonatal dosimetry up until mid-lactation. To test the model's cross-species extrapolation capability, a pharmacokinetic study was conducted with pregnant C57BL/6 mice exposed (oral gavage; 5 mg/kg) to ATR from gestational day 12 to 18. By using mouse-specific parameters, the model predictions fitted well with the measured data, including placental ATR/DACT levels. However, fetal concentrations of DACT were overestimated by the model (10-fold). This overestimation suggests that only around 10% of the DACT that reaches the fetus is tissue-bound. These rodent models could be used in fetal/neonatal tissue dosimetry predictions to help design/interpret early life toxicity/pharmacokinetic studies with ATR and as a foundation for scaling to humans. - Highlights: We developed PBPK models for atrazine in rat dams, fetuses, and neonates. We conducted pharmacokinetic (PK) study with atrazine in pregnant mice. Model predictions were in good agreement with experimental rat and mouse PK data. The

  2. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  3. State Energy Production Estimates

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Production Estimates 1960 Through 2012 2012 Summary Tables Table P1. Energy Production Estimates in Physical Units, 2012 Alabama 19,455 215,710 9,525 0 Alaska 2,052 351,259...

  4. ESTIMATING FATE AND TRANSPORT OF MULTIPLE CONTAMINANTS IN THE VADOSE ZONE USING A MULTI-LAYERED SOIL COLUMN AND THREE-PHASE EQUILIBRIUM PARTITIONING MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rucker, G

    2007-05-01

    Soils at waste sites must be evaluated for the potential of residual soil contamination to leach and migrate to the groundwater beneath the disposal area. If migration to the aquifer occurs, contaminants can travel vast distances and contaminate drinking water wells, thus exposing human receptors to harmful levels of toxins and carcinogens. To prevent groundwater contamination, a contaminant fate and transport analysis is necessary to assess the migration potential of residual soil contaminates. This type of migration analysis is usually performed using a vadose zone model to account for complex geotechnical and chemical variables including: contaminant decay, infiltration rate, soil properties, vadose zone thickness, and chemical behavior. The distinct advantage of using a complex model is that less restrictive, but still protective, soil threshold levels may be determined avoiding the unnecessary and costly remediation of marginally contaminated soils. However, the disadvantage of such modeling is the additional cost for data collection and labor required to apply these models. In order to allay these higher costs and to achieve a less restrictive but still protective clean-up level, a multiple contaminant and multi layered soil column equilibrium partitioning model was developed which is faster, simpler and less expensive to use.

  5. Estimating fate and transport of multiple contaminants in the vadose zone using a multi-layered soil column and three-phase equilibrium partitioning model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rucker, Gregory G.

    2007-07-01

    Soils at waste sites must be evaluated for the potential of residual soil contamination to leach and migrate to the groundwater beneath the disposal area. If migration to the aquifer occurs, contaminants can travel vast distances and pollute drinking water wells, thus exposing human receptors to harmful levels of toxins and carcinogens. To prevent groundwater contamination, a contaminant fate and transport analysis is necessary to assess the migration potential of residual soil contaminants. This type of migration analysis is usually performed using a vadose zone model to account for complex geotechnical and chemical variables including: decay processes, infiltration rate, soil properties, vadose zone thickness, and chemical behavior. The distinct advantage of using a complex model is that less restrictive, but still protective, soil threshold levels may be determined avoiding the unnecessary and costly remediation of marginally contaminated soils. However, the disadvantage of such modeling is the additional cost for data collection and labor required to apply these models. In order to allay these higher costs and to achieve a less restrictive but still protective clean-up level, a multiple contaminant and multi layered soil column equilibrium partitioning model was developed which is faster, simpler and less expensive to use. (authors)

  6. Types of Cost Estimates

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    The chapter describes the estimates required on government-managed projects for both general construction and environmental management.

  7. Managing Increased Charging Demand

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Managing Increased Charging Demand Carrie Giles ICF International, Supporting the Workplace Charging Challenge Workplace Charging Challenge Do you already own an EV? Are you...

  8. State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

  9. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

  10. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

  11. Residential propane price increases

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.98 per gallon, up 1.1 cents from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy ...

  12. Residential propane prices increase

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 3.9 cents from a week ago to 2.80 per gallon. That's up 53.7 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  13. Residential propane price increases

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.96 per gallon, up 1.8 cents from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy ...

  14. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.03 per gallon, up 1 cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy ...

  15. Residential propane prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose to 2.40 per gallon, up 1.1 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy ...

  16. Residential propane price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.41 per gallon, up 6-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  17. Residential propane price increases

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.96 per gallon, up 7-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  18. Residential propane prices increase

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 4.8 cents from a week ago to 2.76 per gallon. That's up 51.2 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  19. Residential propane prices increase

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 5.5 cents per gallon from last week to 2.62 per gallon; up 37.4 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  20. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.00 per gallon, up 7-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  1. Residential propane prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 10.3 cents from a week ago to 2.96 per gallon. That's up 68.1 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  2. Residential propane prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 3.2 cents from a week ago to 2.86 per gallon. That's up 59.3 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  3. Residential propane prices increase

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 9.1 cents from a week ago to 2.71 per gallon. That's up 46.9 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  4. Residential propane prices increase

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 2.3 cents per gallon from last week to 2.57 per gallon; up 32.2 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  5. Residential propane price increases

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.02 per gallon, up 5-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  6. Residential propane prices increase

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 2.5 cents from a week ago to 2.83 per gallon. That's up 56 cents from a year ago, based on the residential ...

  7. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.98 per gallon, up 5-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  8. Residential propane price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.99 per gallon, up 3-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  9. Residential propane price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.01 per gallon, up 1.2 cents from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy ...

  10. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.02 per gallon, up 4-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  11. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 1.97 per gallon, up 6-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. ...

  12. Residential propane price increases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4, 2015 Residential propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.36 per gallon, up half of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey ...

  13. Coupling of Realistic Rate Estimates with Genomics for Assessing Contaminant Attenuation and Long-Term Plume Containment - Task 4: Modeling - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert C. Starr

    2005-10-31

    seven plumes at 24 DOE facilities were screened, and 14 plumes were selected for detailed examination. In the plumes selected for further study, spatial changes in the concentration of a conservative co-contaminant were used to compensate for the effects of mixing and temporal changes in TCE release from the contaminant source. Decline in TCE concentration along a flow path in excess of the co contaminant concentration decline was attributed to cometabolic degradation. This study indicated that TCE was degraded in 9 of the 14 plumes examined, with first order degradation half-lives ranging from about 1 to 12 years. TCE degradation in about two-thirds of the plumes examined suggests that cometabolism of TCE in aerobic groundwater is a common occurrence, in contrast to the conventional wisdom that TCE is recalcitrant in aerobic groundwater. The degradation half-life values calculated in this study are short enough that natural attenuation may be a viable remedy in many aerobic plumes. Computer modeling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport and degradation is frequently used to predict the evolution of groundwater plumes, and for evaluating natural attenuation and other remedial alternatives. An important aspect of a computer model is the mathematical approach for describing degradation kinetics. A common approach is to assume that degradation occurs as a first-order process. First order kinetics are easily incorporated into transport models and require only a single value (a degradation half-life) to describe reaction kinetics. The use of first order kinetics is justified in many cases because more elaborate kinetic equations often closely approximate first order kinetics under typical field conditions. A previous modeling study successfully simulated the INL TCE plume using first order degradation kinetics. TCE cometabolism is the result of TCE reacting with microbial enzymes that were produced for other purposes, such as oxidizing a growth substrate to obtain

  14. gtp_flow_power_estimator.xlsx

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This simple spreadsheet model estimates either the flow rate required to produce a specified level of power output, or the power output that can be produced from a specified flow rate.

  15. DREAM tool increases space weather predictions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DREAM tool increases space weather predictions Model addresses radiation hazards of the space environment on space systems. April 13, 2012 Scientists studying Earth's radiation ...

  16. Estimating Specialty Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Specialty costs are those nonstandard, unusual costs that are not typically estimated. Costs for research and development (R&D) projects involving new technologies, costs associated with future regulations, and specialty equipment costs are examples of specialty costs. This chapter discusses those factors that are significant contributors to project specialty costs and methods of estimating costs for specialty projects.

  17. Residential propane price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    propane price increases The average retail price for propane is $2.02 per gallon, up 4-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Propane prices in the Midwest region averaged $1.48 per gallon, down 1-tenth of a cent from last week, and down 43

  18. Brady 1D seismic velocity model ambient noise prelim

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mellors, Robert J.

    2013-10-25

    Preliminary 1D seismic velocity model derived from ambient noise correlation. 28 Green's functions filtered between 4-10 Hz for Vp, Vs, and Qs were calculated. 1D model estimated for each path. The final model is a median of the individual models. Resolution is best for the top 1 km. Poorly constrained with increasing depth.

  19. Background estimation in experimental spectra

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischer, R.; Hanson, K. M.; Los Alamos National Laboratory, MS P940, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 ; Dose, V.; Linden, W. von der

    2000-02-01

    A general probabilistic technique for estimating background contributions to measured spectra is presented. A Bayesian model is used to capture the defining characteristics of the problem, namely, that the background is smoother than the signal. The signal is allowed to have positive and/or negative components. The background is represented in terms of a cubic spline basis. A variable degree of smoothness of the background is attained by allowing the number of knots and the knot positions to be adaptively chosen on the basis of the data. The fully Bayesian approach taken provides a natural way to handle knot adaptivity and allows uncertainties in the background to be estimated. Our technique is demonstrated on a particle induced x-ray emission spectrum from a geological sample and an Auger spectrum from iron, which contains signals with both positive and negative components. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society.

  20. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-05-09

    This Guide provides uniform guidance and best practices that describe the methods and procedures that could be used in all programs and projects at DOE for preparing cost estimates.

  1. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    The objective of this Guide is to improve the quality of cost estimates and further strengthen the DOE program/project management system. The original 25 separate chapters and three appendices have been combined to create a single document.

  2. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-05-09

    This Guide provides uniform guidance and best practices that describe the methods and procedures that could be used in all programs and projects at DOE for preparing cost estimates. No cancellations.

  3. Derived Annual Estimates

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    74-1988 For Methodology Concerning the Derived Estimates Total Consumption of Offsite-Produced Energy for Heat and Power by Industry Group, 1974-1988 Total Energy *** Electricity...

  4. Diesel prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.84 a gallon on Monday. That's up 2.2 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at $4.00 a gallon, up 2.2 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.75 a gallon, up 8-tenths of a penny. This is Marlana Anderson, with EIA, in Washington. For more information, contact

  5. Diesel prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.90 a gallon on Monday. That's up 3 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.11 a gallon, up 4.2 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.79 a gallon, up 1.7 cents.

  6. Diesel prices increase nationally

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices increase nationally The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.91 a gallon on Monday. That's up 1.3 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the West Coast states at 4.07 a gallon, up 1 1/2 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.83 a gallon, up 7-tenths of a penny.

  7. Diesel prices slightly increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices slightly increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose slightly to $3.87 a gallon on Monday. That's up 2-tenths of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.07 a gallon, up half a penny from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.77 a gallon, up 6-tenths of a penny.

  8. Independent Cost Estimate (ICE)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Independent Cost Estimate (ICE). On August 8-12, the Office of Project Management Oversight and Assessments (PM) will conduct an ICE on the NNSA Albuquerque Complex Project (NACP) at Albuquerque, NM. This estimate will support the Critical Decision (CD) for establishing the performance baseline and approval to start construction (CD-2/3). This project is at CD-1, with a total project cost range of $183M to $251M.

  9. FUZZY SUPERNOVA TEMPLATES. II. PARAMETER ESTIMATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodney, Steven A.; Tonry, John L. E-mail: jt@ifa.hawaii.ed

    2010-05-20

    Wide-field surveys will soon be discovering Type Ia supernovae (SNe) at rates of several thousand per year. Spectroscopic follow-up can only scratch the surface for such enormous samples, so these extensive data sets will only be useful to the extent that they can be characterized by the survey photometry alone. In a companion paper we introduced the Supernova Ontology with Fuzzy Templates (SOFT) method for analyzing SNe using direct comparison to template light curves, and demonstrated its application for photometric SN classification. In this work we extend the SOFT method to derive estimates of redshift and luminosity distance for Type Ia SNe, using light curves from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) as a validation set. Redshifts determined by SOFT using light curves alone are consistent with spectroscopic redshifts, showing an rms scatter in the residuals of rms{sub z} = 0.051. SOFT can also derive simultaneous redshift and distance estimates, yielding results that are consistent with the currently favored {Lambda}CDM cosmological model. When SOFT is given spectroscopic information for SN classification and redshift priors, the rms scatter in Hubble diagram residuals is 0.18 mag for the SDSS data and 0.28 mag for the SNLS objects. Without access to any spectroscopic information, and even without any redshift priors from host galaxy photometry, SOFT can still measure reliable redshifts and distances, with an increase in the Hubble residuals to 0.37 mag for the combined SDSS and SNLS data set. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we predict that SOFT will be able to improve constraints on time-variable dark energy models by a factor of 2-3 with each new generation of large-scale SN surveys.

  10. Gas revenue increasingly significant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Megill, R.E.

    1991-09-01

    This paper briefly describes the wellhead prices of natural gas compared to crude oil over the past 70 years. Although natural gas prices have never reached price parity with crude oil, the relative value of a gas BTU has been increasing. It is one of the reasons that the total amount of money coming from natural gas wells is becoming more significant. From 1920 to 1955 the revenue at the wellhead for natural gas was only about 10% of the money received by producers. Most of the money needed for exploration, development, and production came from crude oil. At present, however, over 40% of the money from the upstream portion of the petroleum industry is from natural gas. As a result, in a few short years natural gas may become 50% of the money revenues generated from wellhead production facilities.

  11. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  12. A simple method to estimate interwell autocorrelation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pizarro, J.O.S.; Lake, L.W.

    1997-08-01

    The estimation of autocorrelation in the lateral or interwell direction is important when performing reservoir characterization studies using stochastic modeling. This paper presents a new method to estimate the interwell autocorrelation based on parameters, such as the vertical range and the variance, that can be estimated with commonly available data. We used synthetic fields that were generated from stochastic simulations to provide data to construct the estimation charts. These charts relate the ratio of areal to vertical variance and the autocorrelation range (expressed variously) in two directions. Three different semivariogram models were considered: spherical, exponential and truncated fractal. The overall procedure is demonstrated using field data. We find that the approach gives the most self-consistent results when it is applied to previously identified facies. Moreover, the autocorrelation trends follow the depositional pattern of the reservoir, which gives confidence in the validity of the approach.

  13. Estimating Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport: Sensitivity to Modelled Particle Characteristics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimating Bacteria ...

  14. Estimation and Control of Diesel Engine Processes Utilizing Variable...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Estimation and Control of Diesel Engine Processes Utilizing Variable Intake Valve Actuation Air handling system model for multi-cylinder variable geometry turbocharged diesel ...

  15. Radiological Source Term Estimates for the February 14, 2014...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This document corresponds to Appendix D: Modeling Integrated Summary Report of the Technical Assessment Team Report. Radiological Source Term Estimates for the February 14, 2014 ...

  16. Estimation of the relationship between remotely sensed anthropogenic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Anthropogenic heat discharge was estimated based on a remote sensing-based surface energy balance model, which was parameterized using land ...

  17. Chapter 3: FY 2005 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2005 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed—NEMS-GPRA05 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA05 for the long term.

  18. Chapter 3: FY 2006 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2006 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed–NEMS-GPRA06 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA06 for the long term.

  19. State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  20. State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-07-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  1. State energy data report 1995 - consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  2. VISION Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VISION Model (Argonne National Laboratory) Objectives To provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts of advanced light- and heavy-duty ...

  3. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1990-09-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals.

  4. REQUESTS FOR RETIREMENT ESTIMATE

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    REQUEST FOR RETIREMENT ANNUITY ESTIMATE Instructions: Please read and answer the following questions thoroughly to include checking all applicable boxes. Unanswered questions may delay processing. Print and Fax back your request form to 202.586.6395 or drop request to GM-169. The request will be assigned to your servicing retirement specialist. They will confirm receipt of your request. SECTION A Request Submitted _____________________ ______________________ ________________________

  5. Weekly Coal Production Estimation Methodology

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Weekly Coal Production Estimation Methodology Step 1 (Estimate total amount of weekly U.S. coal production) U.S. coal production for the current week is estimated using a ratio ...

  6. Magnetic nanoparticle temperature estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, John B.; Rauwerdink, Adam M.; Hansen, Eric W.

    2009-05-15

    The authors present a method of measuring the temperature of magnetic nanoparticles that can be adapted to provide in vivo temperature maps. Many of the minimally invasive therapies that promise to reduce health care costs and improve patient outcomes heat tissue to very specific temperatures to be effective. Measurements are required because physiological cooling, primarily blood flow, makes the temperature difficult to predict a priori. The ratio of the fifth and third harmonics of the magnetization generated by magnetic nanoparticles in a sinusoidal field is used to generate a calibration curve and to subsequently estimate the temperature. The calibration curve is obtained by varying the amplitude of the sinusoidal field. The temperature can then be estimated from any subsequent measurement of the ratio. The accuracy was 0.3 deg. K between 20 and 50 deg. C using the current apparatus and half-second measurements. The method is independent of nanoparticle concentration and nanoparticle size distribution.

  7. State Energy Production Estimates

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Production Estimates 1960 Through 2014 2014 Summary Tables U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Data 2014: Production 1 Table P1. Energy Production Estimates in Physical Units, 2014 Alabama 16,377 181,054 9,828 0 Alaska 1,502 345,331 181,175 0 Arizona 8,051 106 56 1,044 Arkansas 94 1,123,678 6,845 0 California 0 252,718 204,269 4,462 Colorado 24,007 1,631,391 95,192 3,133 Connecticut 0 0 0 0 Delaware 0 0 0 0 District of Columbia 0 0 0 0 Florida 0 369 2,227 0 Georgia 0 0 0 2,517

  8. BatPRO: Battery Manufacturing Cost Estimation | Argonne National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BatPRO: Battery Manufacturing Cost Estimation BatPRO models a stiff prismatic pouch-type cell battery pack with cells linked in series. BatPRO models a stiff prismatic pouch-type ...

  9. Actual and Estimated Energy Savings Comparison for Deep Energy Retrofits in the Pacific Northwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard, Jeremy; Widder, Sarah H.; Giever, Elisabeth L.; Baechler, Michael C.

    2012-10-01

    -predicted to 77% over-predicted by the model with respect to monitored energy use. Many of the discrepancies were associated with occupant behavior which influences energy use, dramatically in some cases, actual versus modeled weather differences, modeling input limitations, and complex homes that are difficult to model. The discrepancy between actual and estimated energy use indicates a need for better modeling tools and assumptions. Despite the best efforts of researchers, the estimated energy savings are too inaccurate to determine reliable paybacks for retrofit projects. While the monitored data allows researchers to understand why these differences exist, it is not cost effective to monitor each home with the level of detail presented here. Therefore an appropriate balance between modeling and monitoring must be determined for more widespread application in retrofit programs and the home performance industry. Recommendations to address these deficiencies include: (1) improved tuning process for pre-retrofit energy use, which currently utilized broad-based monthly utility bills; (2) developing simple occupant-based energy models that better address the many different occupant types and their impact on energy use; (3) incorporating actual weather inputs to increase accuracy of the tuning process, which uses utility bills from specific time period; and (4) developing simple, cost-effective monitoring solutions for improved model tuning.

  10. Increasing Renewable Energy with Hydrogen Storage and Fuel Cell...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Increasing Renewable Energy with Hydrogen Storage and Fuel Cell Technologies Increasing Renewable ... Services Workshop Hour-by-Hour Cost Modeling of Optimized Central ...

  11. Use of Cost Estimating Relationships

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are an important tool in an estimator's kit, and in many cases, they are the only tool. Thus, it is important to understand their limitations and characteristics. This chapter discusses considerations of which the estimator must be aware so the Cost Estimating Relationships can be properly used.

  12. Lensed CMB simulation and parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewis, Antony

    2005-04-15

    Modelling of the weak lensing of the CMB will be crucial to obtain correct cosmological parameter constraints from forthcoming precision CMB anisotropy observations. The lensing affects the power spectrum as well as inducing non-Gaussianities. We discuss the simulation of full-sky CMB maps in the weak lensing approximation and describe a fast numerical code. The series expansion in the deflection angle cannot be used to simulate accurate CMB maps, so a pixel remapping must be used. For parameter estimation accounting for the change in the power spectrum but assuming Gaussianity is sufficient to obtain accurate results up to Planck sensitivity using current tools. A fuller analysis may be required to obtain accurate error estimates and for more sensitive observations. We demonstrate a simple full-sky simulation and subsequent parameter estimation at Planck-like sensitivity. The lensed CMB simulation and parameter estimation codes are publicly available.

  13. Coalbed Methane Estimated Production

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System Model Documentation 2013 June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Model Documentation: Coal Market Module 2013 i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of

  14. Sub-Second Parallel State Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Wang, Shaobu; Huang, Zhenyu

    2014-10-31

    This report describes the performance of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) sub-second parallel state estimation (PSE) tool using the utility data from the Bonneville Power Administrative (BPA) and discusses the benefits of the fast computational speed for power system applications. The test data were provided by BPA. They are two-days’ worth of hourly snapshots that include power system data and measurement sets in a commercial tool format. These data are extracted out from the commercial tool box and fed into the PSE tool. With the help of advanced solvers, the PSE tool is able to solve each BPA hourly state estimation problem within one second, which is more than 10 times faster than today’s commercial tool. This improved computational performance can help increase the reliability value of state estimation in many aspects: (1) the shorter the time required for execution of state estimation, the more time remains for operators to take appropriate actions, and/or to apply automatic or manual corrective control actions. This increases the chances of arresting or mitigating the impact of cascading failures; (2) the SE can be executed multiple times within time allowance. Therefore, the robustness of SE can be enhanced by repeating the execution of the SE with adaptive adjustments, including removing bad data and/or adjusting different initial conditions to compute a better estimate within the same time as a traditional state estimator’s single estimate. There are other benefits with the sub-second SE, such as that the PSE results can potentially be used in local and/or wide-area automatic corrective control actions that are currently dependent on raw measurements to minimize the impact of bad measurements, and provides opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability and efficiency. PSE also can enable other advanced tools that rely on SE outputs and could be used to further improve operators’ actions and automated controls to mitigate effects

  15. Building unbiased estimators from non-gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; McDonald, Patrick; Sehgal, Neelima; Slosar, Anze

    2015-01-15

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrongs estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g| = 0.2.

  16. Building unbiased estimators from non-gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; McDonald, Patrick; Sehgal, Neelima; Slosar, Anze

    2015-01-15

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the workmore » of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong’s estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors Δg/g for shears up to |g| = 0.2.« less

  17. Building unbiased estimators from non-Gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; Sehgal, Neelima; McDonald, Patrick; Slosar, Ane E-mail: pvmcdonald@lbl.gov E-mail: anze@bnl.gov

    2015-01-01

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong's estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g|=0.2.

  18. Building unbiased estimators from non-gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; Slosar, Anze; McDonald, Patrick; Sehgal, Neelima

    2015-01-01

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrongs estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g| = 0.2.

  19. Waveform inversion of acoustic waves for explosion yield estimation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kim, K.; Rodgers, A. J.

    2016-07-08

    We present a new waveform inversion technique to estimate the energy of near-surface explosions using atmospheric acoustic waves. Conventional methods often employ air blast models based on a homogeneous atmosphere, where the acoustic wave propagation effects (e.g., refraction and diffraction) are not taken into account, and therefore, their accuracy decreases with increasing source-receiver distance. In this study, three-dimensional acoustic simulations are performed with a finite difference method in realistic atmospheres and topography, and the modeled acoustic Green's functions are incorporated into the waveform inversion for the acoustic source time functions. The strength of the acoustic source is related to explosionmore » yield based on a standard air blast model. The technique was applied to local explosions (<10 km) and provided reasonable yield estimates (<~30% error) in the presence of realistic topography and atmospheric structure. In conclusion, the presented method can be extended to explosions recorded at far distance provided proper meteorological specifications.« less

  20. Reionization history and CMB parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dizgah, Azadeh Moradinezhad; Kinney, William H.; Gnedin, Nickolay Y. E-mail: gnedin@fnal.edu

    2013-05-01

    We study how uncertainty in the reionization history of the universe affects estimates of other cosmological parameters from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We analyze WMAP7 data and synthetic Planck-quality data generated using a realistic scenario for the reionization history of the universe obtained from high-resolution numerical simulation. We perform parameter estimation using a simple sudden reionization approximation, and using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique proposed by Mortonson and Hu. We reach two main conclusions: (1) Adopting a simple sudden reionization model does not introduce measurable bias into values for other parameters, indicating that detailed modeling of reionization is not necessary for the purpose of parameter estimation from future CMB data sets such as Planck. (2) PCA analysis does not allow accurate reconstruction of the actual reionization history of the universe in a realistic case.

  1. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Research & Capabilities, Solar, Solar Newsletter, SunShot, Systems Analysis Sandia Develops Stochastic ...

  2. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Monte Carlo modeling it was found that for noisy signals with a significant background component, accuracy is improved by fitting the total emission data which includes the...

  3. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar Sandia Labs Releases New Version of PVLib Toolbox Sandia has released version 1.3 of PVLib, its widely used Matlab toolbox for modeling photovoltaic (PV) power ...

  4. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Sandia Will Host PV Bankability Workshop at Solar Power International (SPI) 2013 Computational Modeling & Simulation, Distribution Grid Integration, Energy, Facilities, Grid ...

  5. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science and Actuarial Practice" Read More Permalink New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, ...

  6. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Though adequate for modeling mean transport, this approach does not address ... Microphysics such as diffusive transport and chemical kinetics are represented by ...

  7. Time and Resource Estimation Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-06-08

    RESTORE is a computer software tool that allows one to model a complex set of steps required to accomplish a goal (e.g., repair a ruptured natural gas pipeline and restore service to customers). However, the time necessary to complete step may be uncertain and may be affected by conditions, such as the weather, the time of day, the day of the week. Therefore, "nature" can influence which steps are taken and the time needed tomore » complete each step. In addition, the tool allows one to model the costs for each step, which also may be uncertain. RESTORE allows the user to estimate the time and cost, both of which may be uncertain, to achieve an intermediate stage of completion, as well as overall completion. The software also makes it possible to model parallel, competing groups of activities (i.e., parallel paths) so that progreSs at a ‘merge point’ can proceed before other competing activities are completed. For example, RESTORE permits one to model a workaround and a simultaneous complete repair to determine a probability distribution for the earliest time service can be restored to a critical customer. The tool identifies the ‘most active path’ through the network of tasks, which is extremely important information for assessing the most effective way to speed-up or slow-down progress. Unlike other project planning and risk analysis tools, RESTORE provides an intuitive, graphical, and object-oriented environment for structuring a model and setting its parameters.« less

  8. A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk; Lee, Nam Kwon; Jung, So-Youn; Kim, Tae Hyun; Lee, Eun Sook; Kang, Han-Sung; Shin, Kyung Hwan

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.

  9. Estimated recharge rates at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fayer, M.J.; Walters, T.B.

    1995-02-01

    The Ground-Water Surveillance Project monitors the distribution of contaminants in ground water at the Hanford Site for the U.S. Department of Energy. A subtask called {open_quotes}Water Budget at Hanford{close_quotes} was initiated in FY 1994. The objective of this subtask was to produce a defensible map of estimated recharge rates across the Hanford Site. Methods that have been used to estimate recharge rates at the Hanford Site include measurements (of drainage, water contents, and tracers) and computer modeling. For the simulations of 12 soil-vegetation combinations, the annual rates varied from 0.05 mm/yr for the Ephrata sandy loam with bunchgrass to 85.2 mm/yr for the same soil without vegetation. Water content data from the Grass Site in the 300 Area indicated that annual rates varied from 3.0 to 143.5 mm/yr during an 8-year period. The annual volume of estimated recharge was calculated to be 8.47 {times} 10{sup 9} L for the potential future Hanford Site (i.e., the portion of the current Site bounded by Highway 240 and the Columbia River). This total volume is similar to earlier estimates of natural recharge and is 2 to 10x higher than estimates of runoff and ground-water flow from higher elevations. Not only is the volume of natural recharge significant in comparison to other ground-water inputs, the distribution of estimated recharge is highly skewed to the disturbed sandy soils (i.e., the 200 Areas, where most contaminants originate). The lack of good estimates of the means and variances of the supporting data (i.e., the soil map, the vegetation/land use map, the model parameters) translates into large uncertainties in the recharge estimates. When combined, the significant quantity of estimated recharge, its high sensitivity to disturbance, and the unquantified uncertainty of the data and model parameters suggest that the defensibility of the recharge estimates should be improved.

  10. Automated Estimating System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1996-04-15

    AES6.1 is a PC software package developed to aid in the preparation and reporting of cost estimates. AES6.1 provides an easy means for entering and updating the detailed cost, schedule information, project work breakdown structure, and escalation information contained in a typical project cost estimate through the use of menus and formatted input screens. AES6.1 combines this information to calculate both unescalated and escalated cost for a project which can be reported at varying levelsmore » of detail. Following are the major modifications to AES6.0f: Contingency update was modified to provide greater flexibility for user updates, Schedule Update was modified to provide user ability to schedule Bills of Material at the WBS/Participant/Cost Code level, Schedule Plot was modified to graphically show schedule by WBS/Participant/Cost Code, All Fiscal Year reporting has been modified to use the new schedule format, The Schedule 1-B-7, Cost Schedule, and the WBS/Participant reprorts were modified to determine Phase of Work from the B/M Cost Code, Utility program was modified to allow selection by cost code and update cost code in the Global Schedule update, Generic summary and line item download were added to the utility program, and an option was added to all reports which allows the user to indicate where overhead is to be reported (bottom line or in body of report)« less

  11. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  12. Calculating fairness. [Estimating fair return on equity for public utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makholm, J.D.; Sander, D.O. )

    1993-11-15

    Despite the recent restructuring, unbundling, competition, and incentive regulation that has complicated the utility business, estimating the fair rate of return on equity (ROE) remains an important part of public utility base rate cases. For the past two decades, the two most popular methods that regulatory commissions have used for estimating the cost of equity capital for regulated utilities have been the dividend discount method (known as the Discounted Cash Flow model of DCF) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM). Both models use common stock price behavior to draw inferences about the cost of equity. The DCF combines a stock's dividend yield and its predicted dividend growth rate. The CAPM relates changes in a stock's price to changes in the overall market for security prices. These methods have come into question, however, as utilities have increasingly diversified into unregulated activities. When a utility's regulated activities account for 95 to 99 percent of its revenues, there is little practical need to question that its company-specific cost-of-equity capital is overwhelmingly dominated by its regulated activities. But as this percentage continues to decrease, a company's specific cost of equity, as calculated by the DCF or CAPM, is influenced to a larger degree by its unregulated subsidiaries. Two general remedies are available to resolve the problem of setting the fair ROE when the company has substantial holdings in unregulated subsidiaries. One is to abandon (either partially or fully) the practice of using company-specific market information and use a proxy group of comparable utilities instead. The other is to continue using company-specific data, but to adjust the resulting estimates to account for the utility's diversification activity.

  13. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    with application in modeling NDCX-II experiments Wangyi Liu 1 , John Barnard 2 , Alex Friedman 2 , Nathan Masters 2 , Aaron Fisher 2 , Alice Koniges 2 , David Eder 2 1 LBNL, USA, 2...

  14. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NASA Earth at Night Video EC, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Global, Modeling, News & Events, Solid-State Lighting, Videos NASA Earth at Night Video Have you ever wondered what the ...

  15. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Close Cite: Bibtex Format Close 0 pages in this document matching the terms "" Search For Terms: Enter terms in the toolbar above to search the full text of this document for ...

  16. Dynamic State Estimation and Parameter Calibration of DFIG based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fan, Rui; Huang, Zhenyu; Wang, Shaobu; Diao, Ruisheng; Meng, Da

    2015-07-30

    With the growing interest in the application of wind energy, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) plays an essential role in the industry nowadays. To deal with the increasing stochastic variations introduced by intermittent wind resource and responsive loads, dynamic state estimation (DSE) are introduced in any power system associated with DFIGs. However, sometimes this dynamic analysis canould not work because the parameters of DFIGs are not accurate enough. To solve the problem, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is proposed for the state estimation and parameter calibration tasks. In this paper, a DFIG is modeled and implemented with the EnKF method. Sensitivity analysis is demonstrated regarding the measurement noise, initial state errors and parameter errors. The results indicate this EnKF method has a robust performance on the state estimation and parameter calibration of DFIGs.

  17. Grid State Estimation Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-10-09

    This software code is designed to track generator state variables in real time using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method with the aid of PMU measurements. This code can also be used to calibrate dynamic model parameters by augmenting parameters in the state variable vector.

  18. Icing rate meter estimation of in-cloud cable icing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McComber, P.; Druez, J.; Laflamme, J.

    1994-12-31

    In many northern countries, the design and reliability of power transmission lines are closely related to atmospheric icing overloads. It is becoming increasingly important to have reliable instrument systems to warn of icing conditions before icing loads become sufficient to damage the power transmission network. Various instruments are presently being developed to provide better monitoring of icing conditions. One such instrument is the icing rate meter (IRM) which counts icing and de-icing cycles per unit time on a standard probe and can be used to estimate the icing rate on nearby cables. The calibration presently used was originally based on experiments conducted in a cold room. Even though this calibration has shown that the IRM estimation already offers an improvement over model prediction based on standard meteorological parameters, it can certainly be improved further with appropriate field data. For this purpose, the instrument was tested on an icing test site at Mt. Valin (altitude 902 m) Quebec, Canada. In this paper measurements from twelve in-cloud icing events during the 1991--92 winter are divided into one hour periods of icing to provide the experimental icing rate data. The icing rates measured on a 12.5 mm and a 35 mm cables are then compared with the number of IRM signals, also for one hour periods, in relation to initial ice load, temperature, wind velocity and direction. From this analysis, a better calibration for the IRM instrument is suggested. The improvement of the IRM estimation is illustrated by making a comparison with measurements, of the icing load estimation with the old and new calibrations for two complete icing events.

  19. State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-02-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs.

  20. Increasing FCC regenerator catalyst level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong, R.F. )

    1993-11-01

    A Peruvian FCC unit's operations were improved by increasing the regenerator's catalyst level. This increase resulted in lower stack losses, an improved temperature profile, increased catalyst activity and a lower catalyst consumption rate. A more stable operation saved this Peruvian refiner over $131,000 per year in catalyst alone. These concepts and data may be suitable for your FCC unit as well.

  1. Using Photogrammetry to Estimate Tank Waste Volumes from Video

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Field, Jim G.

    2013-03-27

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) contracted with HiLine Engineering & Fabrication, Inc. to assess the accuracy of photogrammetry tools as compared to video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates. This test report documents the results of using photogrammetry to estimate the volume of waste in tank 241-C-I04 from post-retrieval videos and results using photogrammetry to estimate the volume of waste piles in the CCMS test video.

  2. Robust Optical Richness Estimation with Reduced Scatter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rykoff, E.S.; Koester, B.P.; Rozo, E.; Annis, J.; Evrard, A.E.; Hansen, S.M.; Hao, J.; Johnston, D.E.; McKay, T.A.; Wechsler, R.H.; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC

    2012-06-07

    Reducing the scatter between cluster mass and optical richness is a key goal for cluster cosmology from photometric catalogs. We consider various modifications to the red-sequence matched filter richness estimator of Rozo et al. (2009b), and evaluate their impact on the scatter in X-ray luminosity at fixed richness. Most significantly, we find that deeper luminosity cuts can reduce the recovered scatter, finding that {sigma}{sub ln L{sub X}|{lambda}} = 0.63 {+-} 0.02 for clusters with M{sub 500c} {approx}> 1.6 x 10{sup 14} h{sub 70}{sup -1} M{sub {circle_dot}}. The corresponding scatter in mass at fixed richness is {sigma}{sub ln M|{lambda}} {approx} 0.2-0.3 depending on the richness, comparable to that for total X-ray luminosity. We find that including blue galaxies in the richness estimate increases the scatter, as does weighting galaxies by their optical luminosity. We further demonstrate that our richness estimator is very robust. Specifically, the filter employed when estimating richness can be calibrated directly from the data, without requiring a-priori calibrations of the red-sequence. We also demonstrate that the recovered richness is robust to up to 50% uncertainties in the galaxy background, as well as to the choice of photometric filter employed, so long as the filters span the 4000 {angstrom} break of red-sequence galaxies. Consequently, our richness estimator can be used to compare richness estimates of different clusters, even if they do not share the same photometric data. Appendix A includes 'easy-bake' instructions for implementing our optimal richness estimator, and we are releasing an implementation of the code that works with SDSS data, as well as an augmented maxBCG catalog with the {lambda} richness measured for each cluster.

  3. Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bellsky, Thomas Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

    2014-06-15

    This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

  4. Microsoft Word - Modeling Summary

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Estimated Onsite worker and offsite public dose Modeling has been done to estimate onsite worker and offsite public dose that may have resulted from the February 14, 2014, event. The results of the modeling indicate that all potential doses were well below the applicable regulatory limits (see results below). The modeling results are consistent with actual worker bioassay results. For modeling data see: (http://www.wipp.energy.gov/Special/Modeling Results.pdf) Estimated Dose Applicable

  5. Requesting an Increase in Allocation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home For Users Accounts & Allocations Allocations Request More Time Requesting an Increase in Allocation If your project runs out of MPP time the project PI or its...

  6. Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loth, E.; Tryggvason, G.; Tsuji, Y.; Elghobashi, S. E.; Crowe, Clayton T.; Berlemont, A.; Reeks, M.; Simonin, O.; Frank, Th; Onishi, Yasuo; Van Wachem, B.

    2005-09-01

    Slurry flows occur in many circumstances, including chemical manufacturing processes, pipeline transfer of coal, sand, and minerals; mud flows; and disposal of dredged materials. In this section we discuss slurry flow applications related to radioactive waste management. The Hanford tank waste solids and interstitial liquids will be mixed to form a slurry so it can be pumped out for retrieval and treatment. The waste is very complex chemically and physically. The ARIEL code is used to model the chemical interactions and fluid dynamics of the waste.

  7. Supercooled liquid water Estimation Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-04

    The Cloud Supercooled liquid water Estimation Tool (SEET) is a user driven Graphical User Interface (GUI) that estimates cloud supercooled liquid water (SLW) content in terms of vertical column and total mass from Moderate resolution Imaging Supercooled liquid water Estimation Tool Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spatially derived cloud products and realistic vertical cloud parameterizations that are user defined. It also contains functions for post-processing of the resulting data in tabular and graphical form.

  8. Robust and intelligent bearing estimation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Claassen, John P.

    2000-01-01

    A method of bearing estimation comprising quadrature digital filtering of event observations, constructing a plurality of observation matrices each centered on a time-frequency interval, determining for each observation matrix a parameter such as degree of polarization, linearity of particle motion, degree of dyadicy, or signal-to-noise ratio, choosing observation matrices most likely to produce a set of best available bearing estimates, and estimating a bearing for each observation matrix of the chosen set.

  9. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  10. Knowledge Based Estimation of Material Release Transients

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-07-29

    KBERT is an easy to use desktop decision support tool for estimating public and in-facility worker doses and consequences of radioactive material releases in non-reactort nuclear facilities. It automatically calculates release and respirable fractions based on published handbook data, and calculates material transport concurrently with personnel evacuation simulations. Any facility layout can be modeled easily using the intuitive graphical user interface.

  11. Generalized REGression Package for Nonlinear Parameter Estimation

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-05-15

    GREG computes modal (maximum-posterior-density) and interval estimates of the parameters in a user-provided Fortran subroutine MODEL, using a user-provided vector OBS of single-response observations or matrix OBS of multiresponse observations. GREG can also select the optimal next experiment from a menu of simulated candidates, so as to minimize the volume of the parametric inference region based on the resulting augmented data set.

  12. Budget estimates fiscal year 1995: Volume 10

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    This report contains the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) fiscal year budget justification to Congress. The budget provides estimates for salaries and expenses and for the Office of the Inspector General for fiscal year 1995. The NRC 1995 budget request is $546,497,000. This is an increase of $11,497,000 above the proposed level for FY 1994. The NRC FY 1995 budget request is 3,218 FTEs. This is a decrease of 75 FTEs below the 1994 proposed level.

  13. Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kline, D.

    2010-07-01

    A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

  14. Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for

  15. Derived Annual Estimates of Manufacturing Energy Consumption...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    > Derived Annual Estimates - Executive Summary Derived Annual Estimates of Manufacturing Energy Consumption, 1974-1988 Figure showing Derived Estimates Executive Summary This...

  16. Examples of Cost Estimation Packages

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Estimates can be performed in a variety of ways. Some of these are for projects for an undefined scope, a conventional construction project, or where there is a level of effort required to complete the work. Examples of cost estimation packages for these types of projects are described in this appendix.

  17. Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Development Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Development Project objective: Provide a tool for estimating...

  18. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    King, Bruce Hardison; Hansen, Clifford; Stein, Joshua

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  19. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  20. IDC RP2 & 3 US Industry Standard Cost Estimate Summary.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harris, James M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  1. TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

    2007-11-12

    Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

  2. Module: Estimating Historical Emissions from Deforestation |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Website: www.leafasia.orgtoolstechnical-guidance-series-estimating-historical Cost: Free Language: English Module: Estimating Historical Emissions from Deforestation Screenshot...

  3. Iterative methods for distributed parameter estimation in parabolic PDE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogel, C.R.; Wade, J.G.

    1994-12-31

    The goal of the work presented is the development of effective iterative techniques for large-scale inverse or parameter estimation problems. In this extended abstract, a detailed description of the mathematical framework in which the authors view these problem is presented, followed by an outline of the ideas and algorithms developed. Distributed parameter estimation problems often arise in mathematical modeling with partial differential equations. They can be viewed as inverse problems; the `forward problem` is that of using the fully specified model to predict the behavior of the system. The inverse or parameter estimation problem is: given the form of the model and some observed data from the system being modeled, determine the unknown parameters of the model. These problems are of great practical and mathematical interest, and the development of efficient computational algorithms is an active area of study.

  4. Gasoline prices increase (short version)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    gasoline prices increase (short version) The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline rose to $3.69 a gallon on Monday. That's up 1.2 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

  5. CosmoSIS: Modular cosmological parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zuntz, J.; Paterno, M.; Jennings, E.; Rudd, D.; Manzotti, A.; Dodelson, S.; Bridle, S.; Sehrish, S.; Kowalkowski, J.

    2015-06-09

    Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. Here we present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in CosmoSIS, including CAMB, Planck, cosmic shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. Lastly, we illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis

  6. CosmoSIS: Modular cosmological parameter estimation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zuntz, J.; Paterno, M.; Jennings, E.; Rudd, D.; Manzotti, A.; Dodelson, S.; Bridle, S.; Sehrish, S.; Kowalkowski, J.

    2015-06-09

    Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. Here we present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in CosmoSIS, including CAMB, Planck, cosmicmore » shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. Lastly, we illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis« less

  7. Estimate Radiological Dose for Animals

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1997-12-18

    Estimate Radiological dose for animals in ecological environment using open literature values for parameters such as body weight, plant and soil ingestion rate, rad. halflife, absorbed energy, biological halflife, gamma energy per decay, soil-to-plant transfer factor, ...etc

  8. Estimates of Green potentials. Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danchenko, V I

    2003-02-28

    Optimal Cartan-type covers by hyperbolic discs of carriers of Green {alpha}-potentials are obtained in a simply connected domain in the complex plane and estimates of the potentials outside the carriers are presented. These results are applied to problems on the separation of singularities of analytic and harmonic functions. For instance, uniform and integral estimates in terms of Green capacities of components of meromorphic functions are obtained.

  9. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 5.4 cents from a week ago to $4.04 per gallon. That's up 4.9 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to 4.02 per gallon, up 5.6 cents from last week, and up 8

  10. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3, 2014 Residential heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 4.4 cents from a week ago to $4.06 per gallon. That's up 4.1 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to 4.03 per gallon, up 2.5 cents from last week, and up 6

  11. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 12 cents from a week ago to $4.18 per gallon. That's up 13 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to 4.13 per gallon, up 9.8 cents from last week, and up 12.9 cents from a

  12. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 3.9 cents last week to $3.96 per gallon. That's down 2.6 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for heating oil in the New England region averaged 3.92 per gallon, up 5.2 cents from last week, and 1.7

  13. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 2.9 cents from a week ago to $3.98 per gallon. That's up 6-tenths of a penny from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to 3.96 per gallon, up 4.1 cents from last week, and up 4.8

  14. New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

    2011-01-01

    Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumption rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.

  15. Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Thomson, Allison M.

    2010-03-25

    Soil respiration (RS), the flux of CO2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere, comprises the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux, but its dynamics are incompletely understood, and the global flux remains poorly constrained. Ecosystem warming experiments, modelling analyses, and biokinetics all suggest that RS should change with climate. This has been difficult to confirm observationally because of the high spatial variability of RS, inaccessibility of the soil medium, and inability of remote sensing instruments to measure large-scale RS fluxes. Given these constraints, is it possible to discern climate-driven changes in regional or global RS fluxes in the extant four-decade record of RS chamber measurements? Here we use a database of worldwide RS observations, matched with high-resolution historical climate data, to show a previously unknown temporal trend in the RS record after accounting for mean annual climate, leaf area, nitrogen deposition, and changes in CO2 measurement technique. Air temperature anomaly (deviation from the 1961-1990 mean) is significantly and positively correlated with changes in RS fluxes; both temperature and precipitation anomalies exert effects in specific biomes. We estimate that the current (2008) annual global RS flux is 9812 Pg and has increased 0.1 Pg yr-1 over the last 20 years, implying a global RS temperature response (Q10) of 1.5. An increasing global RS flux does not necessarily constitute a positive feedback loop to the atmosphere; nonetheless, the available data are consistent with an acceleration of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to global climate change.

  16. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  17. A Two-Stage Kalman Filter Approach for Robust and Real-Time Power System State Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jinghe; Welch, Greg; Bishop, Gary; Huang, Zhenyu

    2014-04-01

    As electricity demand continues to grow and renewable energy increases its penetration in the power grid, realtime state estimation becomes essential for system monitoring and control. Recent development in phasor technology makes it possible with high-speed time-synchronized data provided by Phasor Measurement Units (PMU). In this paper we present a two-stage Kalman filter approach to estimate the static state of voltage magnitudes and phase angles, as well as the dynamic state of generator rotor angles and speeds. Kalman filters achieve optimal performance only when the system noise characteristics have known statistical properties (zero-mean, Gaussian, and spectrally white). However in practice the process and measurement noise models are usually difficult to obtain. Thus we have developed the Adaptive Kalman Filter with Inflatable Noise Variances (AKF with InNoVa), an algorithm that can efficiently identify and reduce the impact of incorrect system modeling and/or erroneous measurements. In stage one, we estimate the static state from raw PMU measurements using the AKF with InNoVa; then in stage two, the estimated static state is fed into an extended Kalman filter to estimate the dynamic state. Simulations demonstrate its robustness to sudden changes of system dynamics and erroneous measurements.

  18. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.91 a gallon on Monday. That's up 7-tenths of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.12 a gallon, up 4-tenths of a penny from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.80 a gallon, up 1.3 cents.

  19. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to its highest average since September at $3.95 a gallon. That's up 4.7 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.31 a gallon, up 13.4 cents from a week ago and marking the highest average this region has seen since last February. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.78 a gallon,

  20. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.98 a gallon. That's up 2.6 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.37 a gallon, up 6.4 cents from a week ago and marking the highest average this region has seen since August 2008. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.79 a gallon, up 1.3 cents.

  1. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.89 a gallon on Monday. That's up 2.4 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For the first time this year, the West Coast surpassed New England for the highest regional diesel prices at 4.01 a gallon, up 3.9 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.78 a gallon, up 3.6 cents

  2. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.87 a gallon on Monday. That's up 3.9 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.01 a gallon, up 4 cents from a week ago, followed by the West Coast region at 4.00 a gallon, up 4.6 cents. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region and Lower Atlantic States at 3.80 a gallon.

  3. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.90 a gallon on Monday. That's up 3.6 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.05 a gallon, up 4.2 cents from a week ago, followed closely by the West Coast region at 4.04 a gallon, up 4.4 cents. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.84 a gallon, up 4.3 cents.

  4. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.92 a gallon on Monday. That's up 1.2 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Regionally, diesel prices were highest in New England at 4.06 a gallon, up 1.4 cents from a week ago, followed closely by the West Coast states at 4.05 a gallon, up 1.1 cents. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.85 a gallon, up 4-tenths of a

  5. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.98 a gallon on Labor Day Monday. That's up 6.8 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the West Coast states at 4.13 a gallon, up 5.6 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.90 a gallon, up 6.8 cents.

  6. Diesel prices continue to increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.88 a gallon on Monday. That's up 3.9 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.04 a gallon, up 3.7 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.78 a gallon, up 2.7cents. This is Marlana Anderson, with EIA, in Washington. For more information, contact

  7. Diesel prices slightly increase nationally

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices slightly increase nationally The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose slightly to $3.90 a gallon on Monday. That's up 4-tenths of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the West Coast states at 4.06 a gallon, up 1.2 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast region at 3.82 a gallon, down 2-tenths of a penny.

  8. Residential heating oil price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil price increases The average retail price for home heating oil rose 11.2 cents from a week ago to $2.91 per gallon. That's down $1.33 from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to $2.87 per gallon, up 9.8 cents from last week, and down $1.29 from a year ago. This is Marcela Rourk with EIA, in Washington.

  9. Residential heating oil price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    9, 2015 Residential heating oil price increases The average retail price for home heating oil rose 11.7 cents from a week ago to $3.03 per gallon. That's down $1.20 from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to $2.99 per gallon, up 12 cents from last week, and down $1.16 from a year ago. This is Marcela Rourk

  10. Residential heating oil price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5, 2015 Residential heating oil price increases The average retail price for home heating oil rose 14.7 cents from a week ago to $3.19 per gallon. That's down $1.06 from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to $3.15 per gallon, up 15.9 cents from last week, and down $1.00 from a year ago. This is Marcela Rourk

  11. Residential heating oil price increases

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    heating oil price increases The average retail price for home heating oil rose 10.3 cents from a week ago to $3.29 per gallon. That's down 93.7 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to $3.26 per gallon, up 10.4 cents from last week, and down 89.3 cents from a year ago. This is Marcela Rourk

  12. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5, 2014 Residential heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 6.5 cents from a week ago to $4.24 per gallon. That's up 14.9 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices in the New England region rose to 4.17 per gallon, up 4.1 cents from last week, and up 13.4 cents from a year ago. This is Amerine Woodyard, with EIA, in Washington. For more information, contact Marcela

  13. Residential heating oil prices increase

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4, 2013 Residential heating oil prices increase The average retail price for home heating oil rose 2.9 cents from last week to $3.92 per gallon. That's down 11 cents from a year ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price for heating oil in the New England region averaged 3.87 per gallon, up 2.5 cents from last week, but down 7.1 cents from a year earlier. This is Marlana Anderson

  14. RANGE INCREASER FOR PNEUMATIC GAUGES

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fowler, A.H.; Seaborn, G.B. Jr.

    1960-09-27

    An improved pneumatic gage is offered in which the linear range has been increased without excessive air consumption. This has been accomplished by providing an expansible antechamber connected to the nozzle of the gage so that the position of the nozzle with respect to the workpiece is varied automatically by variation in pressure within the antechamber. This arrangement ensures that the nozzle-to-workpiece clearance is maintained within certain limits, thus obtaining a linear relation of air flow to nozzle-to-workpiece clearance over a wider range.

  15. Weldon Spring historical dose estimate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meshkov, N.; Benioff, P.; Wang, J.; Yuan, Y.

    1986-07-01

    This study was conducted to determine the estimated radiation doses that individuals in five nearby population groups and the general population in the surrounding area may have received as a consequence of activities at a uranium processing plant in Weldon Spring, Missouri. The study is retrospective and encompasses plant operations (1957-1966), cleanup (1967-1969), and maintenance (1969-1982). The dose estimates for members of the nearby population groups are as follows. Of the three periods considered, the largest doses to the general population in the surrounding area would have occurred during the plant operations period (1957-1966). Dose estimates for the cleanup (1967-1969) and maintenance (1969-1982) periods are negligible in comparison. Based on the monitoring data, if there was a person residing continually in a dwelling 1.2 km (0.75 mi) north of the plant, this person is estimated to have received an average of about 96 mrem/yr (ranging from 50 to 160 mrem/yr) above background during plant operations, whereas the dose to a nearby resident during later years is estimated to have been about 0.4 mrem/yr during cleanup and about 0.2 mrem/yr during the maintenance period. These values may be compared with the background dose in Missouri of 120 mrem/yr.

  16. COMMUTER Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    computer model that estimates the travel and emissions impacts of transportation air quality programs focused on commuting. The model is particularly useful for programs...

  17. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  18. Integrated State Estimation and Contingency Analysis Software Implementation using High Performance Computing Techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Yousu; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Rice, Mark J.; Huang, Zhenyu

    2015-12-31

    Power system simulation tools are traditionally developed in sequential mode and codes are optimized for single core computing only. However, the increasing complexity in the power grid models requires more intensive computation. The traditional simulation tools will soon not be able to meet the grid operation requirements. Therefore, power system simulation tools need to evolve accordingly to provide faster and better results for grid operations. This paper presents an integrated state estimation and contingency analysis software implementation using high performance computing techniques. The software is able to solve large size state estimation problems within one second and achieve a near-linear speedup of 9,800 with 10,000 cores for contingency analysis application. The performance evaluation is presented to show its effectiveness.

  19. Research subjects for analytical estimation of core degradation at Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nagase, F.; Ishikawa, J.; Kurata, M.; Yoshida, H.; Kaji, Y.; Shibamoto, Y.; Amaya, M; Okumura, K.; Katsuyama, J.

    2013-07-01

    Estimation of the accident progress and status inside the pressure vessels (RPV) and primary containment vessels (PCV) is required for appropriate conductance of decommissioning in the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP. For that, it is necessary to obtain additional experimental data and revised models for the estimation using computer codes with increased accuracies. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has selected phenomena to be reviewed and developed, considering previously obtained information, conditions specific to the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP accident, and recent progress of experimental and analytical technologies. As a result, research and development items have been picked up in terms of thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RPV and PCV, progression of fuel bundle degradation, failure of the lower head of RPV, and analysis of the accident. This paper introduces the selected phenomena to be reviewed and developed, research plans and recent results from the JAEA's corresponding research programs. (authors)

  20. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  1. Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Xiao, Zhiqiang

    2014-11-11

    Net all-wave surface radiation (Rn) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional Rn measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical Rn estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate Rn globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. Rn estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained from 251 global sites between 1991–2010more » both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m–2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m–2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global Rn estimation.« less

  2. Quick estimating for thermal conductivity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sastri, S.R.S.; Rao, K.K. )

    1993-08-01

    Accurate values for thermal conductivity--an important engineering property used in heat transfer calculations of liquids--are not as readily available as those for other physical properties. Therefore, it often becomes necessary to use estimated data. A new estimating method combines ease of use with an accuracy that is generally better than existing procedures. The paper discusses how to select terms and testing correlations, then gives two examples of the use of the method for calculation of the thermal conductivity of propionic acid and chlorobenzene.

  3. Estimating demolition cost of plutonium buildings for dummies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tower, S.E.

    2000-07-01

    The primary purpose of the Rocky Flats Field Office of the US Department of Energy is to decommission the entire plant. In an effort to improve the basis and the accuracy of the future decommissioning cost, Rocky Flats has developed a powerful but easy-to-use tool to determine budget cost estimates to characterize, decontaminate, and demolish all its buildings. The parametric cost-estimating tool is called the Facilities Disposition Cost Model (FDCM).

  4. RADIATION DOSE ESTIMATES TO ADULTS AND CHILDREN FROM VARIOUS

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RADIATION DOSE ESTIMATES TO ADULTS AND CHILDREN FROM VARIOUS RADIOPHARMACEUTICALS Latest Revision Date: 4/30/96 Radiation Internal Dose Information Center Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education P.O. Box 117 Mail Stop 51 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 The radiopharmaceuticals and nuclear medicine studies considered in this report are listed in the Table of Contents on page 2. The radiation dose estimates given in the dose tables are based on the assumptions and models given in Chapter 17, Radiation

  5. Emissions Tool Estimates the Impact of Emissions on Smart Grid

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Investments | Department of Energy Emissions Tool Estimates the Impact of Emissions on Smart Grid Infrastructure Investments Emissions Tool Estimates the Impact of Emissions on Smart Grid Infrastructure Investments July 28, 2016 - 2:59pm Addthis In the face of extreme weather events, states, utilities, and other companies are increasingly seeking ways to boost resiliency while reducing their carbon footprint. The Emissions Quantification Tool (EQT), which was conceived of and

  6. Impact of Uncertainty on Loss Estimates for a Repeat of the 1908 Messina-Reggio Calabria Earthquake in Southern Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Franco, Guillermo; Shen-Tu, Bing Ming; Bazzurro, Paolo; Goretti, Agostino; Valensise, Gianluca

    2008-07-08

    Increasing sophistication in the insurance and reinsurance market is stimulating the move towards catastrophe models that offer a greater degree of flexibility in the definition of model parameters and model assumptions. This study explores the impact of uncertainty in the input parameters on the loss estimates by departing from the exclusive usage of mean values to establish the earthquake event mechanism, the ground motion fields, or the damageability of the building stock. Here the potential losses due to a repeat of the 1908 Messina-Reggio Calabria event are calculated using different plausible alternatives found in the literature that encompass 12 event scenarios, 2 different ground motion prediction equations, and 16 combinations of damage functions for the building stock, a total of 384 loss scenarios. These results constitute the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the different assumptions on the loss estimates that allows the model user to estimate the impact of the uncertainty on input parameters and the potential spread of the model results. For the event under scrutiny, average losses would amount today to about 9.000 to 10.000 million Euros. The uncertainty in the model parameters is reflected in the high coefficient of variation of this loss, reaching approximately 45%. The choice of ground motion prediction equations and vulnerability functions of the building stock contribute the most to the uncertainty in loss estimates. This indicates that the application of non-local-specific information has a great impact on the spread of potential catastrophic losses. In order to close this uncertainty gap, more exhaustive documentation practices in insurance portfolios will have to go hand in hand with greater flexibility in the model input parameters.

  7. VISION Model: Description

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    Description of VISION model, which is used to estimate the impact of highway vehicle technologies and fuels on energy use and carbon emissions to 2050.

  8. A BIM-based system for demolition and renovation waste estimation and planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheng, Jack C.P., E-mail: cejcheng@ust.hk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong); Ma, Lauren Y.H., E-mail: yingzi@ust.hk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong)

    2013-06-15

    provide alerts to contractors ahead of time at project planning stage. This paper also presents an example scenario with a 47-floor residential building in Hong Kong to demonstrate our D and R waste estimation and planning system. As the BIM technology has been increasingly adopted in the architectural, engineering and construction industry and digital building information models will likely to be available for most buildings (including historical buildings) in the future, our system can be used in various demolition and renovation projects and be extended to facilitate project control.

  9. Mandatory Photovoltaic System Cost Estimate

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    If the customer has a ratio of estimated monthly kilowatt-hour (kWh) usage to line extension mileage that is less than or equal to 1,000, the utility must provide the comparison at no cost. If the...

  10. BLE: Battery Life Estimator | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BLE: Battery Life Estimator BLE: Battery Life Estimator Argonne's Battery Life Estimator (BLE) software is a state-of-the-art tool kit for fitting battery aging data and for ...

  11. Development of surface mine cost estimating equations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-09-26

    Cost estimating equations were developed to determine capital and operating costs for five surface coal mine models in Central Appalachia, Northern Appalachia, Mid-West, Far-West, and Campbell County, Wyoming. Engineering equations were used to estimate equipment costs for the stripping function and for the coal loading and hauling function for the base case mine and for several mines with different annual production levels and/or different overburden removal requirements. Deferred costs were then determined through application of the base case depreciation schedules, and direct labor costs were easily established once the equipment quantities (and, hence, manpower requirements) were determined. The data points were then fit with appropriate functional forms, and these were then multiplied by appropriate adjustment factors so that the resulting equations yielded the model mine costs for initial and deferred capital and annual operating cost. (The validity of this scaling process is based on the assumption that total initial and deferred capital costs are proportional to the initial and deferred costs for the primary equipment types that were considered and that annual operating cost is proportional to the direct labor costs that were determined based on primary equipment quantities.) Initial capital costs ranged from $3,910,470 in Central Appalachia to $49,296,785; deferred capital costs ranged from $3,220,000 in Central Appalachia to $30,735,000 in Campbell County, Wyoming; and annual operating costs ranged from $2,924,148 in Central Appalachia to $32,708,591 in Campbell County, Wyoming. (DMC)

  12. Coherent radar estimates of average high-latitude ionospheric Joule heating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kosch, M.J.; Nielsen, E.

    1995-07-01

    The Scandinavian Twin Auroral Radar Experiment (STARE) and Sweden and Britain Radar Experiment (SABRE) bistatic coherent radar systems have been employed to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of the ionospheric Joule heating in the combined geographic latitude range 63.8 deg - 72.6 deg (corrected geomagnetic latitude 61.5 deg - 69.3 deg) over Scandinavia. The 173 days of good observations with all four radars have been analyzed during the period 1982 to 1986 to estimate the average ionospheric electric field versus time and latitude. The AE dependent empirical model of ionospheric Pedersen conductivity of Spiro et al. (1982) has been used to calculate the Joule heating. The latitudinal and diurnal variation of Joule heating as well as the estimated mean hemispherical heating of 1.7 x 10(exp 11) W are in good agreement with earlier results. Average Joule heating was found to vary linearly with the AE, AU, and AL indices and as a second-order power law with Kp. The average Joule heating was also examined as a function of the direction and magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. It has been shown for the first time that the ionospheric electric field magnitude as well as the Joule heating increase with increasingly negative (southward) Bz.

  13. Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Data Analysis Software v. 1.2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, Edward; Bloom, Ira; Battaglia, Vincent; & Christopherson, Jon

    2010-02-24

    The purpose of this software is estimate the useable life of rechargeable batteries (e.g., lithium-ion). The software employs a generalized statistical approach to model cell data in the context of accelerated aging experiments. The cell performance is modeled in two parts. The first part consists of a deterministic degradation model which models the average cell behavior. The second part relates to the statistical variation in performance of the cells (error model). Experimental data from an accelerated aging experiment will be input from an Excel worksheet. The software will then query the user for a specific model form (within the generalized model framework). Model parameters will be estimated by the software using various statistical methodologies. Average cell life will be predicted using the estimated model parameters. The uncertainty in the estimated cell life will also be computed using bootstrap simulations. This software can be used in several modes: 1) fit only, 2) fit and simulation, and 3) simulation only

  14. Combining Multicomponent Seismic Attributes, New Rock Physics Models, and In Situ Data to Estimate Gas-Hydrate Concentrations in Deep-Water, Near-Seafloor Strata of the Gulf of Mexico

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bureau of Economic Geology

    2009-04-30

    The Bureau of Economic Geology was contracted to develop technologies that demonstrate the value of multicomponent seismic technology for evaluating deep-water hydrates across the Green Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico. This report describes the methodologies that were developed to create compressional (P-P) and converted-shear (P-SV) images of near-seafloor geology from four-component ocean-bottom-cable (4C OBC) seismic data and the procedures used to integrate P-P and P-SV seismic attributes with borehole calibration data to estimate hydrate concentration across two study areas spanning 16 and 25 lease blocks (or 144 and 225 square miles), respectively. Approximately 200 km of two-dimensional 4C OBC profiles were processed and analyzed over the course of the 3-year project. The strategies we developed to image near-seafloor geology with 4C OBC data are unique, and the paper describing our methodology was peer-recognized with a Best Paper Award by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists in the first year of the project (2006). Among the valuable research findings demonstrated in this report, the demonstrated ability to image deep-water near-seafloor geology with sub-meter resolution using a standard-frequency (10-200 Hz) air gun array on the sea surface and 4C sensors on the seafloor has been the accomplishment that has received the most accolades from professional peers. Our study found that hydrate is pervasive across the two study areas that were analyzed but exists at low concentrations. Although our joint inversion technique showed that in some limited areas, and in some geologic units across those small areas, hydrates occupied up to 40-percent of the sediment pore space, we found that when hydrate was present, hydrate concentration tended to occupy only 10-percent to 20-percent of the pore volume. We also found that hydrate concentration tended to be greater near the base of the hydrate stability zone than it was within the central part of the stability

  15. Estimates and Recommendations for Coincidence Geometry (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Estimates and Recommendations for Coincidence Geometry Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimates and Recommendations for Coincidence Geometry You are accessing a...

  16. Estimating Waste Inventory and Waste Tank Characterization |...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Estimating Waste Inventory and Waste Tank Characterization Estimating Waste Inventory and Waste Tank Characterization Summary Notes from 28 May 2008 Generic Technical Issue ...

  17. Estimating retained gas volumes in the Hanford tanks using waste level measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitney, P.D.; Chen, G.; Gauglitz, P.A.; Meyer, P.A.; Miller, N.E.

    1997-09-01

    The Hanford site is home to 177 large, underground nuclear waste storage tanks. Safety and environmental concerns surround these tanks and their contents. One such concern is the propensity for the waste in these tanks to generate and trap flammable gases. This report focuses on understanding and improving the quality of retained gas volume estimates derived from tank waste level measurements. While direct measurements of gas volume are available for a small number of the Hanford tanks, the increasingly wide availability of tank waste level measurements provides an opportunity for less expensive (than direct gas volume measurement) assessment of gas hazard for the Hanford tanks. Retained gas in the tank waste is inferred from level measurements -- either long-term increase in the tank waste level, or fluctuations in tank waste level with atmospheric pressure changes. This report concentrates on the latter phenomena. As atmospheric pressure increases, the pressure on the gas in the tank waste increases, resulting in a level decrease (as long as the tank waste is {open_quotes}soft{close_quotes} enough). Tanks with waste levels exhibiting fluctuations inversely correlated with atmospheric pressure fluctuations were catalogued in an earlier study. Additionally, models incorporating ideal-gas law behavior and waste material properties have been proposed. These models explicitly relate the retained gas volume in the tank with the magnitude of the waste level fluctuations, dL/dP. This report describes how these models compare with the tank waste level measurements.

  18. Developing a tool to estimate water withdrawal and consumption in electricity generation in the United States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, M.; Peng, J.

    2011-02-24

    Freshwater consumption for electricity generation is projected to increase dramatically in the next couple of decades in the United States. The increased demand is likely to further strain freshwater resources in regions where water has already become scarce. Meanwhile, the automotive industry has stepped up its research, development, and deployment efforts on electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Large-scale, escalated production of EVs and PHEVs nationwide would require increased electricity production, and so meeting the water demand becomes an even greater challenge. The goal of this study is to provide a baseline assessment of freshwater use in electricity generation in the United States and at the state level. Freshwater withdrawal and consumption requirements for power generated from fossil, nonfossil, and renewable sources via various technologies and by use of different cooling systems are examined. A data inventory has been developed that compiles data from government statistics, reports, and literature issued by major research institutes. A spreadsheet-based model has been developed to conduct the estimates by means of a transparent and interactive process. The model further allows us to project future water withdrawal and consumption in electricity production under the forecasted increases in demand. This tool is intended to provide decision makers with the means to make a quick comparison among various fuel, technology, and cooling system options. The model output can be used to address water resource sustainability when considering new projects or expansion of existing plants.

  19. Method and system to estimate variables in an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kumar, Aditya; Shi, Ruijie; Dokucu, Mustafa

    2013-09-17

    System and method to estimate variables in an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant are provided. The system includes a sensor suite to measure respective plant input and output variables. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) receives sensed plant input variables and includes a dynamic model to generate a plurality of plant state estimates and a covariance matrix for the state estimates. A preemptive-constraining processor is configured to preemptively constrain the state estimates and covariance matrix to be free of constraint violations. A measurement-correction processor may be configured to correct constrained state estimates and a constrained covariance matrix based on processing of sensed plant output variables. The measurement-correction processor is coupled to update the dynamic model with corrected state estimates and a corrected covariance matrix. The updated dynamic model may be configured to estimate values for at least one plant variable not originally sensed by the sensor suite.

  20. Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Field, Jim G.

    2013-03-27

    Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure.

  1. Atmospheric Inverse Estimates of Methane Emissions from Central California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, Chuanfeng; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Bianco, Laura; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hirsch, Adam; MacDonald, Clinton; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Fischer, Marc L.

    2008-11-21

    Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall-tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH{sub 4} in Central California for October-December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH{sub 4} mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH{sub 4} emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH{sub 4} emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH{sub 4} emissions are reported. First, linear regressions of modeled and measured CH{sub 4} mixing ratios obtain slopes of 0.73 {+-} 0.11 and 1.09 {+-} 0.14 using California specific and Edgar 3.2 emission maps respectively, suggesting that actual CH{sub 4} emissions were about 37 {+-} 21% higher than California specific inventory estimates. Second, a Bayesian 'source' analysis suggests that livestock emissions are 63 {+-} 22% higher than the a priori estimates. Third, a Bayesian 'region' analysis is carried out for CH{sub 4} emissions from 13 sub-regions, which shows that inventory CH{sub 4} emissions from the Central Valley are underestimated and uncertainties in CH{sub 4} emissions are reduced for sub-regions near the tower site, yielding best estimates of flux from those regions consistent with 'source' analysis results. The uncertainty reductions for regions near the tower indicate that a regional network of measurements will be necessary to provide accurate estimates of surface CH{sub 4} emissions for multiple regions.

  2. Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacCracken, M C; Luther, F M

    1985-12-01

    This report presents the current knowns, unknowns, and uncertainties regarding the projected climate changes that might occur as a result of an increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. Further, the volume describes what research is required to estimate the magnitude and rate of a CO/sub 2/-induced clamate change with regional and seasonal resolution. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the individual papers. (ACR)

  3. Guidelines for Estimating Unmetered Landscapting Water Use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-07-30

    Guidance to help Federal agencies estimate unmetered landscaping water use as required by Executive Order 13514

  4. Preliminary relative permeability estimates of methanehydrate-bearing sand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seol, Yongkoo; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Tomutsa, Liviu; Moridis,George J.

    2006-05-08

    The relative permeability to fluids in hydrate-bearingsediments is an important parameter for predicting natural gas productionfrom gas hydrate reservoirs. We estimated the relative permeabilityparameters (van Genuchten alpha and m) in a hydrate-bearing sand by meansof inverse modeling, which involved matching water saturation predictionswith observations from a controlled waterflood experiment. We used x-raycomputed tomography (CT) scanning to determine both the porosity and thehydrate and aqueous phase saturation distributions in the samples. X-rayCT images showed that hydrate and aqueous phase saturations arenon-uniform, and that water flow focuses in regions of lower hydratesaturation. The relative permeability parameters were estimated at twolocations in each sample. Differences between the estimated parametersets at the two locations were attributed to heterogeneity in the hydratesaturation. Better estimates of the relative permeability parametersrequire further refinement of the experimental design, and betterdescription of heterogeneity in the numerical inversions.

  5. Preliminary relative permeability estimates of methanehydrate-bearing sand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seol, Yongkoo; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Tomutsa, Liviu; Moridis,George J.

    2006-05-08

    The relative permeability to fluids in hydrate-bearing sediments is an important parameter for predicting natural gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs. We estimated the relative permeability parameters (van Genuchten alpha and m) in a hydrate-bearing sand by means of inverse modeling, which involved matching water saturation predictions with observations from a controlled waterflood experiment. We used x-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning to determine both the porosity and the hydrate and aqueous phase saturation distributions in the samples. X-ray CT images showed that hydrate and aqueous phase saturations are non-uniform, and that water flow focuses in regions of lower hydrate saturation. The relative permeability parameters were estimated at two locations in each sample. Differences between the estimated parameter sets at the two locations were attributed to heterogeneity in the hydrate saturation. Better estimates of the relative permeability parameters require further refinement of the experimental design, and better description of heterogeneity in the numerical inversions.

  6. Oxygen transport properties estimation by DSMC-CT simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruno, Domenico; Frezzotti, Aldo; Ghiroldi, Gian Pietro

    2014-12-09

    Coupling DSMC simulations with classical trajectories calculations is emerging as a powerful tool to improve predictive capabilities of computational rarefied gas dynamics. The considerable increase of computational effort outlined in the early application of the method (Koura,1997) can be compensated by running simulations on massively parallel computers. In particular, GPU acceleration has been found quite effective in reducing computing time (Ferrigni,2012; Norman et al.,2013) of DSMC-CT simulations. The aim of the present work is to study rarefied Oxygen flows by modeling binary collisions through an accurate potential energy surface, obtained by molecular beams scattering (Aquilanti, et al.,1999). The accuracy of the method is assessed by calculating molecular Oxygen shear viscosity and heat conductivity following three different DSMC-CT simulation methods. In the first one, transport properties are obtained from DSMC-CT simulations of spontaneous fluctuation of an equilibrium state (Bruno et al, Phys. Fluids, 23, 093104, 2011). In the second method, the collision trajectory calculation is incorporated in a Monte Carlo integration procedure to evaluate the Taxman’s expressions for the transport properties of polyatomic gases (Taxman,1959). In the third, non-equilibrium zero and one-dimensional rarefied gas dynamic simulations are adopted and the transport properties are computed from the non-equilibrium fluxes of momentum and energy. The three methods provide close values of the transport properties, their estimated statistical error not exceeding 3%. The experimental values are slightly underestimated, the percentage deviation being, again, few percent.

  7. New developments in capital cost estimating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stutz, R.A.; Zocher, M.A.

    1988-01-01

    The new developments in cost engineering revolve around the ability to capture information that in the past could not be automated. The purpose of automation is not to eliminate the expert cost engineer. The goal is to use available technology to have more information available to the professionals in the cost engineering field. In that sense, the demand for expertise increases in order to produce the highest quality estimate and project possible from all levels of cost engineers. We cannot overemphasize the importance of using a good source of expert information in building these types of programs. ''Garbage in, garbage out'' still applies in this form of programming. Expert systems technology will become commonplace in many vertical markets; it is important to undersand what can and cannot be accomplished in our field, and where this technology will lead us in the future.

  8. Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

    2015-09-02

    Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operating geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.

  9. Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryberg, David; Freeman, Janine

    2015-09-01

    Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a wide variety of system designs and locations. A scattering of independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort spent on verifying these models beyond the system design and location on which they were based. Moreover, none of the major PV modeling software products have incorporated any of these models into their workflow. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. [1] into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for two PV arrays. Following this, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical dataset to estimate average snow losses across the United States for a typical PV system design. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nation-wide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

  10. Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Xiao, Zhiqiang

    2014-11-11

    Net all-wave surface radiation (Rn) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional Rn measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical Rn estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate Rn globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. Rn estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained from 251 global sites between 1991–2010 both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m–2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m–2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global Rn estimation.

  11. 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Belles, R D; Simon, A J

    2011-03-10

    An energy flow chart or 'atlas' for 136 countries has been constructed from data maintained by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and estimates of energy use patterns for the year 2007. Approximately 490 exajoules (460 quadrillion BTU) of primary energy are used in aggregate by these countries each year. While the basic structure of the energy system is consistent from country to country, patterns of resource use and consumption vary. Energy can be visualized as it flows from resources (i.e. coal, petroleum, natural gas) through transformations such as electricity generation to end uses (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial, transportation). These flow patterns are visualized in this atlas of 136 country-level energy flow charts.

  12. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-11-16

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods.

  13. Distributed Dynamic State Estimator, Generator Parameter Estimation and Stability Monitoring Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meliopoulos, Sakis; Cokkinides, George; Fardanesh, Bruce; Hedrington, Clinton

    2013-12-31

    This is the final report for this project that was performed in the period: October1, 2009 to June 30, 2013. In this project, a fully distributed high-fidelity dynamic state estimator (DSE) that continuously tracks the real time dynamic model of a wide area system with update rates better than 60 times per second is achieved. The proposed technology is based on GPS-synchronized measurements but also utilizes data from all available Intelligent Electronic Devices in the system (numerical relays, digital fault recorders, digital meters, etc.). The distributed state estimator provides the real time model of the system not only the voltage phasors. The proposed system provides the infrastructure for a variety of applications and two very important applications (a) a high fidelity generating unit parameters estimation and (b) an energy function based transient stability monitoring of a wide area electric power system with predictive capability. Also the dynamic distributed state estimation results are stored (the storage scheme includes data and coincidental model) enabling an automatic reconstruction and “play back” of a system wide disturbance. This approach enables complete play back capability with fidelity equal to that of real time with the advantage of “playing back” at a user selected speed. The proposed technologies were developed and tested in the lab during the first 18 months of the project and then demonstrated on two actual systems, the USVI Water and Power Administration system and the New York Power Authority’s Blenheim-Gilboa pumped hydro plant in the last 18 months of the project. The four main thrusts of this project, mentioned above, are extremely important to the industry. The DSE with the achieved update rates (more than 60 times per second) provides a superior solution to the “grid visibility” question. The generator parameter identification method fills an important and practical need of the industry. The “energy function” based

  14. Development of Advanced Combustion Technologies for Increased...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Advanced Combustion Technologies for Increased Thermal Efficiency Development of Advanced Combustion Technologies for Increased Thermal Efficiency Investigation of fuel effects on ...

  15. Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts June 18, 2014 - 10:49am ...

  16. Report: Natural Gas Infrastructure Implications of Increased...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Report: Natural Gas Infrastructure Implications of Increased Demand from the Electric Power Sector Report: Natural Gas Infrastructure Implications of Increased Demand from the ...

  17. Best-Estimate Analysis PWR LOCA.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-11-11

    Version: 00 TRAC‑PF1 performs best estimate analyses of loss of coolant accidents and other transients in pressurized light water reactors. The program can also be used to model a wide range of thermal hydraulic experiments in reduced scale facilities. Models employed include reflood, multi‑dimensional two‑phase flow, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, generalized heat transfer, and reactor kinetics. Automatic steady‑state and dump/restart capabilities are provided. The changes reported in TRACNEWS issues through Number 7 are incorporated in this release.more » TRAC-PF1 was developed on a CDC computer at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The PC version of TRAC‑PF1 was converted at CNEN in 1989 and has not been updated since that time. The NRC no longer supports the TRAC codes. They currently develop and maintain the TRACE code system, which is the TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine. TRACE is a modernized thermal-hydraulics code designed to consolidate the capabilities of NRC's 3 legacy safety codes - TRAC-P, TRAC-B and RELAP. This is NRC's flagship thermal-hydraulics analysis tool. See the website for more information http://www.nrccodes.com/.« less

  18. State Energy Price and Expenditure Estimates

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2016-01-01

    Energy price and expenditure estimates in dollars per million Btu and in million dollars, by state, 1970-2014.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Country of Publication: United States Availability: ORNL Language: English Subject: 54 Environmental Sciences ARMBE, Soundings; Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes ...

  20. Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    held October 31 - November 4, 2011 in Santa Fe, NM.; Related Information: Proposed for presentation at the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change held ...

  1. Load Modeling and State Estimation Methods for Power Distribution...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Close Cite: Bibtex Format Close 0 pages in this document matching the terms "" Search For Terms: Enter terms in the toolbar above to search the full text of this document for ...

  2. New Methodology for Natural Gas Production Estimates

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    A new methodology is implemented with the monthly natural gas production estimates from the EIA-914 survey this month. The estimates, to be released April 29, 2010, include revisions for all of 2009. The fundamental changes in the new process include the timeliness of the historical data used for estimation and the frequency of sample updates, both of which are improved.

  3. Parameter estimation with Sandage-Loeb test

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geng, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Jing-Fei; Zhang, Xin E-mail: jfzhang@mail.neu.edu.cn

    2014-12-01

    The Sandage-Loeb (SL) test directly measures the expansion rate of the universe in the redshift range of 2 ∼< z ∼< 5 by detecting redshift drift in the spectra of Lyman-α forest of distant quasars. We discuss the impact of the future SL test data on parameter estimation for the ΛCDM, the wCDM, and the w{sub 0}w{sub a}CDM models. To avoid the potential inconsistency with other observational data, we take the best-fitting dark energy model constrained by the current observations as the fiducial model to produce 30 mock SL test data. The SL test data provide an important supplement to the other dark energy probes, since they are extremely helpful in breaking the existing parameter degeneracies. We show that the strong degeneracy between Ω{sub m} and H{sub 0} in all the three dark energy models is well broken by the SL test. Compared to the current combined data of type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background, and Hubble constant, the 30-yr observation of SL test could improve the constraints on Ω{sub m} and H{sub 0} by more than 60% for all the three models. But the SL test can only moderately improve the constraint on the equation of state of dark energy. We show that a 30-yr observation of SL test could help improve the constraint on constant w by about 25%, and improve the constraints on w{sub 0} and w{sub a} by about 20% and 15%, respectively. We also quantify the constraining power of the SL test in the future high-precision joint geometric constraints on dark energy. The mock future supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data are simulated based on the space-based project JDEM. We find that the 30-yr observation of SL test would help improve the measurement precision of Ω{sub m}, H{sub 0}, and w{sub a} by more than 70%, 20%, and 60%, respectively, for the w{sub 0}w{sub a}CDM model.

  4. Regional Dynamics Model (REDYN) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    use the REDYN model to estimate the effects of actions and policies on people and the economy. The REDYN model powers the unique Regional Dynamics Economic Service, an...

  5. State-level evaluations of the Weatherization Assistance Program in 1990-1996: a metaevaluation that estimates national savings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berry, L.

    1997-01-01

    The DOE Weatherization Assistance Program is one of the largest energy conservation programs in the nation. To obtain an updated estimate of national Program savings, an approach of metaevaluation was selected, which involved locating, assembling, and summarizing the results of all state-level evaluations of the Program that have become available since 1990. All of the savings estimates that are presented in this report are for dwellings that heat primarily with natural gas.This review of the state-level evaluations conducted since 1990 concluded that Program performance has improved significantly in the last seven years. The finding that savings are increasing are supported by a literature review, within-state comparisons of savings over time, and regression modeling results.

  6. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as

  7. Vertical barriers with increased sorption capacities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradl, H.B.

    1997-12-31

    Vertical barriers are commonly used for the containment of contaminated areas. Due to the very small permeability of the barrier material which is usually in the order of magnitude of 10-10 m/s or less the advective contaminant transport can be more or less neglected. Nevertheless, there will always be a diffusive contaminant transport through the barrier which is caused by the concentration gradient. Investigations have been made to increase the sorption capacity of the barrier material by adding substances such as organoclays, zeolites, inorganic oxides and fly ashes. The contaminants taken into account where heavy metals (Pb) and for organic contaminants Toluole and Phenantrene. The paper presents results of model calculations and experiments. As a result, barrier materials can be designed {open_quotes}tailor-made{close_quotes} depending on the individual contaminant range of each site (e.g. landfills, gasworks etc.). The parameters relevant for construction such as rheological properties, compressive strength and permeability are not affected by the addition of the sorbents.

  8. Highway vehicle MPG and market shares report: Model year 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, L.S. ); Hu, P.S. )

    1991-04-01

    This issue of Highway Vehicle MPG and Market Shares Report: Model Year 1990 reports the estimated sales-weighted fuel economies, sales, market shares, and other vehicle characteristics of new automobiles and light trucks. The estimates are made on a make and model basis (e.g., Chevrolet is a make and Corsica is a model), from model year 1976 to model year 1990. Vehicle sales data are used as weighting factors in the sales-weighted estimation procedure. Thus, the estimates represent averages of the overall new vehicle fleet, reflecting the composition of the fleet. Highlights are provided on the trends in the vehicle characteristics from one model year to the next. Analyses are also made on fuel economy changes to determine what caused the changes. The new automobile fleet experienced a fuel economy loss of 0.4 mpg from the previous model year, dropping to 27.6 mpg. This is the second consecutive decline in the fuel economy of new automobiles since model year 1983. The main reason for the fuel economy decline in automobiles was that the compact, midsize, and large size classes, which together claimed more than 75% of the new automobile market, each experienced fuel economy declines of 0.4 mpg or more. In contrast, the new light truck fleet showed an increase of 0.3 mpg from the previous year to a current mpg of 20.5. The fuel economy increase in light trucks was primarily due to the fact that the large pickup class, which represents 35.0% of the new 1990 light truck market experienced a gain of 0.7 mpg in its fuel economy. Overall, the sales-weighted fuel economy of the new light-duty vehicle fleet (automobiles and light trucks) dropped to 24.8 mpg in model year 1990, a reduction of 0.2 mpg from model year 1989. 9 refs., 29 figs., 55 tabs.

  9. Robust Bearing Estimation for 3-Component Stations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Claassen, John P.

    1999-06-03

    A robust bearing estimation process for 3-component stations has been developed and explored. The method, called SEEC for Search, Estimate, Evaluate and Correct, intelligently exploits the in- herent information in the arrival at every step of the process to achieve near-optimal results. In particular, the approach uses a consistent framework to define the optimal time-frequency windows on which to make estimates, to make the bearing estimates themselves, to construct metrics helpful in choosing the better estimates or admitting that the bearing is immeasurable, andjinally to apply bias corrections when calibration information is available to yield a single final estimate. The method was applied to a small but challenging set of events in a seismically active region. The method demonstrated remarkable utility by providing better estimates and insights than previously available. Various monitoring implications are noted fiom these findings.

  10. Robust bearing estimation for 3-component stations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CLAASSEN,JOHN P.

    2000-02-01

    A robust bearing estimation process for 3-component stations has been developed and explored. The method, called SEEC for Search, Estimate, Evaluate and Correct, intelligently exploits the inherent information in the arrival at every step of the process to achieve near-optimal results. In particular the approach uses a consistent framework to define the optimal time-frequency windows on which to make estimates, to make the bearing estimates themselves, to construct metrics helpful in choosing the better estimates or admitting that the bearing is immeasurable, and finally to apply bias corrections when calibration information is available to yield a single final estimate. The algorithm was applied to a small but challenging set of events in a seismically active region. It demonstrated remarkable utility by providing better estimates and insights than previously available. Various monitoring implications are noted from these findings.

  11. A Testbed for Deploying Distributed State Estimation in Power Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Liu, Yan; Gorton, Ian

    2012-07-22

    Abstract—With the increasing demand, scale and data information of power systems, fast distributed applications are becoming more important in power system operation and control. This paper proposes a testbed for evaluating power system distributed applications, considering data exchange among distributed areas. A high-performance computing (HPC) version of distributed state estimation is implemented and used as a distributed application example. The IEEE 118-bus system is used to deploy the parallel distributed state estimation, and the MeDICi middleware is used for data communication. The performance of the testbed demonstrates its capability to evaluate parallel distributed state estimation by leveraging the HPC paradigm. This testbed can also be applied to evaluate other distributed applications.

  12. Hydrogen Delivery Analysis Models

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Models Amgad Elgowainy (ANL), Marianne Mintz (ANL), Jerry Gillette (ANL), Matt Ringer (NREL), Bruce Kelly (Nexant), Matt Hooks (TIAX), Daryl Brown (PNNL), and Mark Paster (DOE) September, 2007 DOE H2A Delivery Models Spreadsheet model for delivery system component costs and performance: Components Model Delivery scenario model for Urban and Rural /Interstate markets and demand levels (Mkt. Penetration) Scenario Model Estimates the cost of H 2 ($/kg) (and V2: energy and GHG) Assumes 2005 delivery

  13. Critical dynamics of cluster algorithms in the dilute Ising model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hennecke, M. Universitaet Karlsruhe ); Heyken, U. )

    1993-08-01

    Autocorrelation times for thermodynamic quantities at [Tc] are calculated from Monte Carlo simulations of the site-diluted simple cubic Ising model, using the Swendsen-Wand and Wolff cluster algorithms. The results show that for these algorithms the autocorrelation times decrease when reducing the concentration of magnetic sites from 100% down to 40%. This is of crucial importance when estimating static properties of the model, since the variances of these estimators increase with autocorrelation time. The dynamical critical exponents are calculated for both algorithms, observing pronounced finite-size effects in the energy autocorrelation data for the algorithm of Wolff. It is concluded that, when applied to the dilute Ising model, cluster algorithms become even more effective than local algorithms, for which increasing autocorrelation times are expected. 33 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-18

    This report contains the following: Bibliography; Petroleum Market Model abstract; Data quality; Estimation methodologies (includes refinery investment recovery thresholds, gas plant models, chemical industry demand for methanol, estimation of refinery fixed costs, estimation of distribution costs, estimation of taxes gasoline specifications, estimation of gasoline market shares, estimation of low-sulfur diesel market shares, low-sulfur diesel specifications, estimation of regional conversion coefficients, estimation of SO{sub 2} allowance equations, unfinished oil imports methodology, product pipeline capacities and tariffs, cogeneration methodology, natural gas plant fuel consumption, and Alaskan crude oil exports); Matrix generator documentation; Historical data processing; and Biofuels supply submodule.

  15. Budget estimates. Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-02-01

    The U.S. Congress has determined that the safe use of nuclear materials for peaceful purposes is a legitimate and important national goal. It has entrusted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the primary Federal responsibility for achieving that goal. The NRC`s mission, therefore, is to regulate the Nation`s civilian use of byproduct, source, and special nuclear materials to ensure adequate protection of public health and safety, to promote the common defense and security, and to protect the environment. The NRC`s FY 1998 budget requests new budget authority of $481,300,000 to be funded by two appropriations - one is the NRC`s Salaraies and Expenses appropriation for $476,500,000, and the other is NRC`s Office of Inspector General appropriation for $4,800,000. Of the funds appropriated to the NRC`s Salaries and Expenses, $17,000,000, shall be derived from the Nuclear Waste Fund and $2,000,000 shall be derived from general funds. The proposed FY 1998 appropriation legislation would also exempt the $2,000,000 for regulatory reviews and other assistance provided to the Department of Energy from the requirement that the NRC collect 100 percent of its budget from fees. The sums appropriated to the NRC`s Salaries and Expenses and NRC`s Office of Inspector General shall be reduced by the amount of revenues received during FY 1998 from licensing fees, inspection services, and other services and collections, so as to result in a final FY 1998 appropriation for the NRC of an estimated $19,000,000 - the amount appropriated from the Nuclear Waste Fund and from general funds. Revenues derived from enforcement actions shall be deposited to miscellaneous receipts of the Treasury.

  16. Reliability Estimates for Power Supplies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee C. Cadwallader; Peter I. Petersen

    2005-09-01

    Failure rates for large power supplies at a fusion facility are critical knowledge needed to estimate availability of the facility or to set priorties for repairs and spare components. A study of the "failure to operate on demand" and "failure to continue to operate" failure rates has been performed for the large power supplies at DIII-D, which provide power to the magnet coils, the neutral beam injectors, the electron cyclotron heating systems, and the fast wave systems. When one of the power supplies fails to operate, the research program has to be either temporarily changed or halted. If one of the power supplies for the toroidal or ohmic heating coils fails, the operations have to be suspended or the research is continued at de-rated parameters until a repair is completed. If one of the power supplies used in the auxiliary plasma heating systems fails the research is often temporarily changed until a repair is completed. The power supplies are operated remotely and repairs are only performed when the power supplies are off line, so that failure of a power supply does not cause any risk to personnel. The DIII-D Trouble Report database was used to determine the number of power supply faults (over 1,700 reports), and tokamak annual operations data supplied the number of shots, operating times, and power supply usage for the DIII-D operating campaigns between mid-1987 and 2004. Where possible, these power supply failure rates from DIII-D will be compared to similar work that has been performed for the Joint European Torus equipment. These independent data sets support validation of the fusion-specific failure rate values.

  17. Anisotropic parameter estimation using velocity variation with offset analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herawati, I.; Saladin, M.; Pranowo, W.; Winardhie, S.; Priyono, A.

    2013-09-09

    Seismic anisotropy is defined as velocity dependent upon angle or offset. Knowledge about anisotropy effect on seismic data is important in amplitude analysis, stacking process and time to depth conversion. Due to this anisotropic effect, reflector can not be flattened using single velocity based on hyperbolic moveout equation. Therefore, after normal moveout correction, there will still be residual moveout that relates to velocity information. This research aims to obtain anisotropic parameters, ? and ?, using two proposed methods. The first method is called velocity variation with offset (VVO) which is based on simplification of weak anisotropy equation. In VVO method, velocity at each offset is calculated and plotted to obtain vertical velocity and parameter ?. The second method is inversion method using linear approach where vertical velocity, ?, and ? is estimated simultaneously. Both methods are tested on synthetic models using ray-tracing forward modelling. Results show that ? value can be estimated appropriately using both methods. Meanwhile, inversion based method give better estimation for obtaining ? value. This study shows that estimation on anisotropic parameters rely on the accuracy of normal moveout velocity, residual moveout and offset to angle transformation.

  18. ARM - Will There be Increased Global Precipitation?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Will There be Increased Global Precipitation? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Will There be Increased Global Precipitation? Very probable. Along with an increase in air temperature might be an increase in evaporation, which could lead to greater global precipitation. The

  19. Advancing Commercialization of Algal Biofuels through Increased...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Advancing Commercialization of Algal Biofuels through Increased Biomass Productivity ... including: NAABB, Cornell's Marine Algal Biofuels Consortium, ATP3. * Participation in ...

  20. Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative: Increasing American Competitive...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Manufacturing Initiative: Increasing American Competitiveness Through Innovation Clean ... Manufacturing Initiative (CEMI), a collaborative effort between the federal government, ...

  1. Isotope Production in Light of Increasing Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patton, B.

    2004-10-05

    This presentation is a part of the panel discussion on isotope production in light of increasing demand.

  2. ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

    2014-06-12

    This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

  3. ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

    This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

  4. Integration of remote measurement calibration with state estimation; A feasibility study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adibi, M.M. ); Clements, K.A. ); Kafka, R.J. ); Stovall, J.P. )

    1992-08-01

    This paper describes the integration of measurement calibration and state estimation methodologies for increasing the confidence level in the real-time data base. The objectives are to improve performance of state estimators and to reduce the system engineering effort which goes into its installations and the related measurement calibrations.

  5. Notes on a New Coherence Estimator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bickel, Douglas L.

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses some interesting features of the new coherence estimator in [1] . The estimator is d erived from a slightly different viewpoint. We discuss a few properties of the estimator, including presenting the probability density function of the denominator of the new estimator , which is a new feature of this estimator . Finally, we present an appr oximate equation for analysis of the sensitivity of the estimator to the knowledge of the noise value. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The preparation of this report is the result of an unfunded research and development activity. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.

  6. Market overview: Increase in uranium prices continues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-04-01

    Spot market activity totaled just over 200,000 lbs of U308 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range increased from a high last month of $14.75/lb U308 to a low this month of $15.25/lb U308. There was also an increase in the unrestricted range this month with the upper end of the range increasing by $0.50/lb U308. The lower end of the spot conversion price range increased by R0.35/kg U while the upper end of the separative work price range increased by $2.00/SWU.

  7. U.S. Uranium Reserves Estimates

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Methodology The U.S. uranium ore reserves reported by EIA for specific MFC categories represent the sums of quantities estimated to occur in known deposits on properties where data about the ore grade, configuration, and depth indicate that the quantities estimated could be recovered at or less than the stated costs given current mining and milling technology and regulations. The reserves estimates for year-end (delete: December 31, 2008), are based on historical data for uranium properties

  8. Methodology for Monthly Crude Oil Production Estimates

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    015 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Methodology for Monthly Crude Oil Production Estimates 1 Methodology for Monthly Crude Oil Production Estimates Executive summary The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) relies on data from state and other federal agencies and does not currently collect survey data directly from crude oil producers. Summarizing the estimation process in terms of percent of U.S. production: * 20% is based on state agency data, including North Dakota and

  9. National Energy Modeling System with Hydrogen Model (NEMS-H2...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling System with Hydrogen Model (NEMS-H2) (OnLocation, Inc. 1 ) Objectives Estimate the energy, economic, and environmental impacts of alternative energy policies and different ...

  10. ORISE: Radiation Dose Estimates and Other Compendia

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rapidly estimate internal and external radiation dose magnitudes that can be used to help ... (PDF) Health Concerns Related to Radiation Exposure of the Female Nuclear Medicine ...

  11. Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation ... Part I of this paper discusses the problem of learning the operational structure of the ...

  12. Adjusted Estimates of Texas Natural Gas Production

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is adjusting its estimates of natural gas production in Texas for 2004 and 2005 to correctly account for carbon dioxide (CO2) production.

  13. Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator This calculator is a tool designed for electric reliability planners at utilities, government organizations or other entities that are...

  14. How EIA Estimates Natural Gas Production

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2004-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes estimates monthly and annually of the production of natural gas in the United States. The estimates are based on data EIA collects from gas producing states and data collected by the U. S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) in the Department of Interior. The states and MMS collect this information from producers of natural gas for various reasons, most often for revenue purposes. Because the information is not sufficiently complete or timely for inclusion in EIA's Natural Gas Monthly (NGM), EIA has developed estimation methodologies to generate monthly production estimates that are described in this document.

  15. Guidelines for Estimating Unmetered Industrial Water Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Guidelines for Estimating Unmetered Industrial Water Use Prepared for U.S. Department of ... PNNL would like to thank the Federal Water Working Group of the Interagency Energy ...

  16. An Estimator of Propagation of Cascading Failure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian; Wierzbicki, Kevin; Carreras, Benjamin A; Lynch, Vickie E; Newman, David E

    2006-01-01

    The authors suggest a statistical estimator to measure the extent to which failures propagate in cascading failures such as large blackouts.

  17. Estimating household fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and LPG prices by census region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this research is to estimate individual fuel prices within the residential sector. The data from four US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, residential energy consumption surveys were used to estimate the models. For a number of important fuel types - fuel oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas - the estimation presents a problem because these fuels are not used by all households. Estimates obtained by using only data in which observed fuel prices are present would be biased. A correction for this self-selection bias is needed for estimating prices of these fuels. A literature search identified no past studies on application of the selectivity model for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. This report describes selectivity models that utilize the Dubin/McFadden correction method for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West census regions. Statistically significant explanatory variables are identified and discussed in each of the models. This new application of the selectivity model should be of interest to energy policy makers, researchers, and academicians.

  18. estimation Humphreys, S.L.; Miller, L.A.; Monroe, D.K. [Sandia...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    RADTRAD: A simplified model for RADionuclide Transport and Removal And Dose estimation Humphreys, S.L.; Miller, L.A.; Monroe, D.K. Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United...

  19. FY 2011 Third Quarter Report Estimate of Historical Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, D

    2011-06-22

    The global and annual mean aerosol direct and indirect effects estimated from Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations are -0.06 W m-2 and -1.39 W m-2, respectively.

  20. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the priormore » information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed

  1. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a

  2. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Schadel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E. E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; MacDougall, A. H.; Marchenko, S. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Natali, S. M.; Nicolsky, D. J.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C. C.; Turetsky, M.

    2015-10-05

    We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of –14 to –19 Pg C °C–1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18

  3. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Schadel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; et al

    2015-10-05

    We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soilmore » temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of –14 to –19 Pg C °C–1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. In conclusion, the

  4. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Refinery Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  5. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  6. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  7. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Commercial Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  8. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Natural Gas Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  9. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  10. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  11. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Refinery Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  12. International Natural Gas Model 2011, Model Documentation Report

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  13. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: World Electricity Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  14. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  15. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  16. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Model

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  17. Estimating dispersion from a tornado vortex and mesocyclone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weber, A.H.; Hunter, C.H.

    1996-06-01

    Atmospheric dispersion modeling is required to ensure that a postulated breach in radionuclide storage containers at the Savannah River Site (SRS) from a tornado strike of Fujita-scale intensity F2 or higher will not result in an unacceptable dose to individuals. Fujita-scale tornado descriptions are included in Appendix A of this report. Dispersion models previously used at SRS for estimating dispersion following a tornado strike were developed by D.W. Pepper in 1975 (DP-1387, Dispersion of Small Particles) and H.R. Haynes and D.W. Taylor in 1983 (DPST-82-982, Estimating Doses from Tornado Winds). Research conducted in 1983 on the formation and evolution of tornadic thunderstorms has lead to a more complete understanding of the tornado vortex and associated persistent updraft and downdraft regions within the parent thunderstorm. To ensure that appropriate, contemporary methods are used for safety analysis, the Pepper model and the Haynes and Taylor model were evaluated with respect to current knowledge of circulations within tornadic thunderstorms. Pepper`s model is complex numerically but contains most of the desired physical parameterizations. Haynes and Taylor`s model is used with the Puff-Plume model (an emergency response model on the Weather INformation and Display System at SRS) and has provisions for radionuclide deposition and rainout. Haynes and Taylor assumed heavy rain following the tornado for a period of ten minutes, followed by a lighter rain for another ten minutes, then no rain for the period when the material is transported to 100 km downwind. However, neither model incorporates the effects of a nearby thunderstorm downdraft.

  18. Determining effective soil formation thermal properties from field data using a parameter estimation technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shonder, J.A.; Beck, J.V.

    1998-11-01

    A one-dimensional thermal model is derived to describe the temperature field around a vertical borehole heat exchanger (BHEx) for a geothermal heat pump. The inlet and outlet pipe flows are modeled as one, and an effective heat capacity is added to model the heat storage in the fluid and pipes. Parameter estimation techniques are then used to estimate various parameters associated with the model, including the thermal conductivity of the soil and of the grout which fills the borehole and surrounds the u-tube. The model is validated using test data from an experimental rig containing sand with known thermal conductivity. The estimates of the sand thermal conductivity derived from the model are found to be in good agreement with independent measurements.

  19. Determining Effective Soil Formation Thermal Properties From Field Data Using A Parameter Estimation Technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shonder, John A; Beck, Dr. James V.

    1999-01-01

    A one-dimensional thermal model is derived to describe the temperature field around a vertical borehole heat exchanger (BHEX) for a geothermal heat pump. The inlet and outlet pipe flows are modeled as one, and an effective heat capacity is added to model the heat storage in the fluid and pipes. Parameter estimation techniques are then used to estimate various parameters associated with the model, including the thermal conductivity of the soil and the grout that fills the borehole and surrounds the U-tube. The model is validated using test data from an experimental rig containing sand with known thermal conductivity. The estimates of the sand's thermal conductivity derived from the model are found to be in good agreement with independent measurements.

  20. Estimating externalities of biomass fuel cycles, Report 7

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the analysis of the biomass fuel cycle, in which biomass is combusted to produce electricity. The major objectives of this study were: (1) to implement the methodological concepts which were developed in the Background Document (ORNL/RFF 1992) as a means of estimating the external costs and benefits of fuel cycles, and by so doing, to demonstrate their application to the biomass fuel cycle; (2) to develop, given the time and resources, a range of estimates of marginal (i.e., the additional or incremental) damages and benefits associated with selected impact-pathways from a new wood-fired power plant, using a representative benchmark technology, at two reference sites in the US; and (3) to assess the state of the information available to support energy decision making and the estimation of externalities, and by so doing, to assist in identifying gaps in knowledge and in setting future research agendas. The demonstration of methods, modeling procedures, and use of scientific information was the most important objective of this study. It provides an illustrative example for those who will, in the future, undertake studies of actual energy options and sites. As in most studies, a more comprehensive analysis could have been completed had budget constraints not been as severe. Particularly affected were the air and water transport modeling, estimation of ecological impacts, and economic valuation. However, the most important objective of the study was to demonstrate methods, as a detailed example for future studies. Thus, having severe budget constraints was appropriate from the standpoint that these studies could also face similar constraints. Consequently, an important result of this study is an indication of what can be done in such studies, rather than the specific numerical estimates themselves.

  1. Simulation Toolkit Promises Better Wind Predictions, Increased...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    higher-than-expected downtimes and maintenance costs all undermine project profitability. ... The toolkit is being implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, ...

  2. BPA proposes rate increase to bolster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    proposed a 9.6 percent average wholesale power rate increase to compensate for reduced revenue expectations from surplus power sales and to continue funding needed investments in...

  3. Increasing Scientific Productivity by Tracking Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    than its predecessor. To effectively meet the increasing scientific demand for storage systems and services, the center's staff must first understand how data moves within the...

  4. Property:Estimated End Date | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Estimated End Date Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Estimated End Date Property Type String Pages using the property "Estimated End Date" Showing 4 pages using this...

  5. Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Document explains how to use estimated ...

  6. Cost and Schedule Estimate and Analysis (FPM 207), Amarillo ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Course topics include: identifying cost and schedule estimates; Basic estimating methods; Group analysis techniques; Applying life-cycle costing technique; Validating estimates; ...

  7. New York Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production (Billion...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Estimated Production (Billion Cubic Feet) New York Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated ... Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production New York Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves Dry ...

  8. New Mexico Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production (Billion...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Estimated Production (Billion Cubic Feet) New Mexico Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated ... Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production New Mexico Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves ...

  9. Request for Retirement Annuity Estimates | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Request for Retirement Annuity Estimates Request for Retirement Annuity Estimates Upon request, Office of the Chief Human Capital Officer provides retirement estimates for ...

  10. West Virginia Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production ...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Estimated Production (Billion Cubic Feet) West Virginia Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated ... Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production West Virginia Dry Natural Gas Proved ...

  11. Virginia Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production (Billion...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Estimated Production (Billion Cubic Feet) Virginia Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated ... Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production Virginia Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves Dry ...

  12. North Dakota Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production (Billion...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Estimated Production (Billion Cubic Feet) North Dakota Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated ... Dry Natural Gas Reserves Estimated Production North Dakota Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves ...

  13. Power, Optimization, Waste Estimating, Resourcing Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-08-13

    Planning, Optimization, Waste Estimating, Resourcing tool (POWERtool) is a comprehensive relational database software tool that can be used to develop and organize a detailed project scope, plan work tasks, develop bottoms-up field cost and waste estimates for facility Deactivation and Decommissioning (D&D), equipment, and environmental restoration (ER) projects and produces resource-loaded schedules.

  14. Systematic Approach for Decommissioning Planning and Estimating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dam, A. S.

    2002-02-26

    Nuclear facility decommissioning, satisfactorily completed at the lowest cost, relies on a systematic approach to the planning, estimating, and documenting the work. High quality information is needed to properly perform the planning and estimating. A systematic approach to collecting and maintaining the needed information is recommended using a knowledgebase system for information management. A systematic approach is also recommended to develop the decommissioning plan, cost estimate and schedule. A probabilistic project cost and schedule risk analysis is included as part of the planning process. The entire effort is performed by a experienced team of decommissioning planners, cost estimators, schedulers, and facility knowledgeable owner representatives. The plant data, work plans, cost and schedule are entered into a knowledgebase. This systematic approach has been used successfully for decommissioning planning and cost estimating for a commercial nuclear power plant. Elements of this approach have been used for numerous cost estimates and estimate reviews. The plan and estimate in the knowledgebase should be a living document, updated periodically, to support decommissioning fund provisioning, with the plan ready for use when the need arises.

  15. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Efficiency | Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency October 31, 2013 - 5:01pm Addthis The Intermountain Weatherization Training Center in Clearfield, Utah. Weatherization Training Centers throughout the nation teach workers valuable skills needed to improve energy efficiency of homes. | Photo courtesy of Intermountain

  16. Implementing nonquadratic objective functions for state estimation and bad data rejection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baldick, R.; Clements, K.A.; Pinjo-Dzigal, Z.; Davis, P.W.

    1997-02-01

    Using a nonquadratic objective function for network state estimation can combine several estimation and bad data rejection techniques into one algorithm; e.g., the benefits of maximum likelihood least squares estimation can be coupled with the bad data rejection properties of least absolute value estimation. For such estimators, the authors describe an efficient implementation, one that builds naturally on existing least squares software, that is based on an iterative Gauss-Newton solution of the KKT optimality conditions. The authors illustrate the behavior of a quadratic-linear and a quadratic-constant objective function on a set of test networks. The former is closely related to the Huber M-estimator. The latter shows somewhat better bad data rejection properties, perhaps because it arises from a natural model of meter failure.

  17. SES Performance-Based Pay Increase

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    An agency may provide a pay increase to allow a senior executive to advance his or her relative position with the SES rate range only upon a determination by the authorized agency official that the executive’s individual performance and/or contribution to agency performance so warrant. A senior executive who receives an annual summary rating of Outstanding or equivalent may be considered for an annual pay increase. A senior executive who receives an annual summary rating of less than Fully Successful or equivalent may not receive an increase in pay for the current appraisal period. The expectation is that executives who are paid consistent with their current level of responsibilities and who receive an acceptable (“Fully Successful” or better) annual summary rating will be eligible to receive a discretionary performance-based pay increase. Pay increases that advance an executive's position in the SES rate range restart the clock under the 12-month rule.

  18. Motor vehicle MPG and market shares report: model year 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hu, P.S.; Holcomb, M.C.

    1985-01-01

    This issue of the publication reports the sales, market shares, estimated sales-weighted fuel economies, and other estimated sales-weighted vehicle characteristics of automobiles and light trucks for the model year 1984 and for the previous five model years. Comparisons and observations are made on the trends in these vehicles from one model year to the next. An improved methodology is used to allocate the yearly MPG changes among eight components, rather than the four reported in the previous reports. Sales of automobiles showed an increase of 16.6% from model year 1983. An even more striking increase was observed in the sales of light trucks: 30.5% from model year 1983. The 1984 model year experienced a gain of 0.23 mpg in sales-weighted automobile fuel economy. In contrast, light trucks experienced a loss of 0.59 mpg in fuel economy, from 20.50 mpg in model year 1983 to 19.91 mpg in model year 1984.

  19. A new estimate of the chondrule cooling rate deduced from an analysis of compositional zoning of relict olivine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miura, H.; Yamamoto, T.

    2014-03-01

    Compositional zoning in chondrule phenocrysts records the crystallization environments in the early solar nebula. We modeled the growth of olivine phenocrysts from a silicate melt and proposed a new fractional crystallization model that provides a relation between the zoning profile and the cooling rate. In our model, we took elemental partitioning at a growing solid-liquid interface and time-dependent solute diffusion in the liquid into consideration. We assumed a local equilibrium condition, namely, that the compositions at the interface are equal to the equilibrium ones at a given temperature. We carried out numerical simulations of the fractional crystallization in one-dimensional planar geometry. The simulations revealed that under a constant cooling rate the growth velocity increases exponentially with time and a linear zoning profile forms in the solid as a result. We derived analytic formulae of the zoning profile, which reproduced the numerical results for wide ranges of crystallization conditions. The formulae provide a useful tool to estimate the cooling rate from the compositional zoning. Applying the formulae to low-FeO relict olivine grains in type II porphyritic chondrules observed by Wasson and Rubin, we estimate the cooling rate to be ?200-2000 K s{sup 1}, which is greater than that expected from furnace-based experiments by orders of magnitude. Appropriate solar nebula environments for such rapid cooling conditions are discussed.

  20. Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monacrovich, E.; Pilifosova, O.; Danchuck, D.

    1996-09-01

    As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options, The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions in 1996-1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO{sub 2} emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO{sub 2} emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%-6% of the 1990 level. 10 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.