National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for land-use scenario analysis

  1. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  2. Land-Use Change Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Objective Develop innovative and science-based approaches to estimate changes in land use pattern using data mining and machine learning techniques on satellite data. History- Two ...

  3. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arnott, James

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  5. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  6. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  7. Scenario Analysis Meeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Sigmund Gronich at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  8. Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Energy Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Dynamic-recursive model GCAM Model Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Resources by Type Tools Click Sort key.JPG to sort by...

  9. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Plenary V: Biofuels and Sustainability: Acknowledging Challenges and Confronting MisconceptionsQuantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG EmissionsJennifer B....

  10. DOE/EIS-0222-SA-O1 Supplement Analysis Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    O1 Supplement Analysis Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office Richland, Washington 99352 June 2008 DOE/EIS-0222-SA-0 1 SUMMARY In September 1999 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued the Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan (HCP) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (DOE/EIS-0222-F). The HCP EIS analyzed the impacts of alternatives for implementing a land-use plan for the DOE's Hanford Site for at least

  11. Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a...

  12. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  13. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - BSM: Biomass Scenario Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BSM - Biomass Scenario Model Energy Analysis The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain. BSM explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. BSM uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain. The model

  15. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 ...

  16. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by ...

  17. Energy and land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

  18. Land Use and Ecosystems Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    CDIAC products are indexed and searchable through a customized interface powered by ORNL's Mercury search engine. Products include numeric data packages, publications, trend data, atlases, models, etc. and can be searched for by subject area, keywords, authors, product numbers, time periods, collection sites, spatial references, etc. Some of the collections may also be included in the CDIAC publication titled Trends Online: A Compendium of Global Change Data. Most data sets, many with numerous data files, are free to download from CDIAC's ftp area. Land Use and Ecosystems information includes Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Data Sets, data sets from Africa and Asia, the Worldwide Organic Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dataset, and much more.

  19. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies Presentation by Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. PDF icon gronich_scenario_analysis.pdf More Documents & Publications Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  20. Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Objectives Determine optimal regional infrastructure development patterns for hydrogen and other transportation fuels, given resource availability and technology cost estimates. Geospatially and temporally resolve the expansion of production, transmission, and distribution infrastructure components. Identify and characterize niche markets and synergies related to refueling station placement and

  1. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  2. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2006-09-18

    This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.

  3. NREL's Enhanced Scenario Framework for Electricity Sector Analysis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's Enhanced Scenario Framework for Electricity Sector Analysis Provides Cost, ... October 19, 2015 Projections of potential energy futures are highly dependent on the ...

  4. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  5. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling March 25, 2015 Analysis and Sustainability PI: Marshall Wise Pacific Northwest National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any ...

  6. Land-use Leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page

    2009-12-01

    Leakage occurs whenever actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in one part of the world unleash countervailing forces elsewhere in the world so that reductions in global emissions are less than emissions mitigation in the mitigating region. While many researchers have examined the concept of industrial leakage, land-use policies can also result in leakage. We show that land-use leakage is potentially as large as or larger than industrial leakage. We identify two potential land-use leakage drivers, land-use policies and bioenergy. We distinguish between these two pathways and run numerical experiments for each. We also show that the land-use policy environment exerts a powerful influence on leakage and that under some policy designs leakage can be negative. International offsets are a potential mechanism to communicate emissions mitigation beyond the borders of emissions mitigating regions, but in a stabilization regime designed to limit radiative forcing to 3.7 2/m2, this also implies greater emissions mitigation commitments on the part of mitigating regions.

  7. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Scenario Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Analysis of potential policy options to help the state reach the 70% Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) goal, including possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology.

  8. An integrated computer modeling environment for regional land use, air quality, and transportation planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanley, C.J.; Marshall, N.L.

    1997-04-01

    The Land Use, Air Quality, and Transportation Integrated Modeling Environment (LATIME) represents an integrated approach to computer modeling and simulation of land use allocation, travel demand, and mobile source emissions for the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area. This environment provides predictive capability combined with a graphical and geographical interface. The graphical interface shows the causal relationships between data and policy scenarios and supports alternative model formulations. Scenarios are launched from within a Geographic Information System (GIS), and data produced by each model component at each time step within a simulation is stored in the GIS. A menu-driven query system is utilized to review link-based results and regional and area-wide results. These results can also be compared across time or between alternative land use scenarios. Using this environment, policies can be developed and implemented based on comparative analysis, rather than on single-step future projections. 16 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Analysis 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  10. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  11. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    H2FAST National Renewable Energy Laboratory The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. H2FAST is available in two formats: an interactive online tool and a downloadable Excel spreadsheet. The spreadsheet version of H2FAST offers basic and advanced user interface modes for modeling individual stations or groups of up to 10 stations. It provides users with detailed annual finance projections in

  12. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  13. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. PDF icon scenario_analysis_agenda.pdf More Documents & Publications Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  14. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Infrastructure Meeting | Department of Energy 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting This agenda provides information about the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007. PDF icon scenario_analysis_agenda1_07.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis

  15. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell ...

  16. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Final List of Attendees | Department of Energy Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees PDF icon scenario_analysis_attendees.pdf More Documents & Publications Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31,

  17. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  18. NREL: Energy Analysis - Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Legacy Versions Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios - Legacy Versions This section contains earlier versions of NREL's Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios products. Looking for the latest versions of the ATB? Spring 2015 Draft Versions Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Spreadsheet ATB Summary Presentation Standard Scenarios Annual Report

  19. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  20. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario ...

  1. NREL: Energy Analysis - 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and CO2 emissions. NREL intends to consistently apply this scenario framework in its ongoing electric sector ...

  2. Geothermal/Land Use | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GeothermalLand Use < Geothermal(Redirected from Land Use) Redirect page Jump to: navigation, search REDIRECT GeothermalLand Use Planning Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgw...

  3. csp land use | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    csp land use Home Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 25 June, 2013 - 12:10 Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI acres csp land use how much land land requirements pv land...

  4. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy August 9-10, 2006 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The meeting was held to review preliminary results of DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek feedback from program stakeholders. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national laboratories, and DOE

  5. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy January 31, 2007 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third and last meeting with program stakeholders was held to review DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek additional feedback from outside experts. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national

  6. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation PDF icon group_1_summary.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2

  7. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation PDF icon ...

  8. Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.

    1999-12-23

    The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.

  9. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  10. NREL: Energy Analysis - Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios Discussion Draft of NREL 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Now Available for Review NREL has posted a discussion draft of its 2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) for public comment through April 15, 2016. ATB Spreadsheet ATB Presentation-an appendix summarizes significant changes from the 2015 ATB. Written public comments are welcome and must adhere to these criteria to be considered: Comments must be submitted in writing to

  11. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  12. Solar Land Use | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Land Use Jump to: navigation, search (The following text is derived from a National Renewable Energy Laboratory report on solar land use in the United States.)1 One concern...

  13. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  14. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  15. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  16. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure | Department of Energy Systems Analysis » 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier would involve major changes in the country's energy and vehicle fleet infrastructure. Technical challenges, costs, and risk will be highest in the near-term, when markets are very small and the technology and infrastructure are immature.

  17. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation PDF icon group_2_summary.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1

  18. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation by Amgad Elgowainy of Argonne National Laboratory was given at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007.

  19. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  20. Hawaii State Land Use Commission | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hawaii State Land Use Commission Jump to: navigation, search Name: State Land Use Commission Abbreviation: LUC Place: Honolulu, Hawaii References: State Land Use Commission -...

  1. Geothermal/Land Use Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land Use Planning < Geothermal(Redirected from GeothermalLand Use) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Land Use Planning Leasing Exploration Well Field...

  2. Land use and environmental impacts of decentralized solar energy use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twiss, R.H.; Smith, P.L.; Gatzke, A.E.; McCreary, S.T.

    1980-01-01

    The physical, spatial and land-use impacts of decentralized solar technologies applied at the community level by the year 2000 are examined. The results of the study are intended to provide a basis for evaluating the way in which a shift toward reliance on decentralized energy technologies may eventually alter community form. Six land-use types representative of those found in most US cities are analyzed according to solar penetration levels identified in the maximum solar scenario for the year 2000. The scenario is translated into shares of end use demand in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. These proportions become the scenario goals to be met by the use of decentralized solar energy systems. The percentage of total energy demand is assumed to be 36.5 percent, 18.8 percent and 22.6 percent in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors respectively. The community level scenario stipulated that a certain percentage of the total demand be met by on-site solar collection, i.e. photovoltaic and thermal collectors, and by passive design. This on-site solar goal is 31.9 percent (residential), 16.8 percent (commercial) and 13.1 percent (industrial).

  3. Effect of separation efficiency on repository loading values in fuel cycle scenario analysis codes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radel, T.E.; Wilson, P.P.H.; Grady, R.M.; Bauer, T.H.

    2007-07-01

    Fuel cycle scenario analysis codes are valuable tools for investigating the effects of various decisions on the performance of the nuclear fuel cycle as a whole. Until recently, repository metrics in such codes were based on mass and were independent of the isotopic composition of the waste. A methodology has been developed for determining peak repository loading for an arbitrary set of isotopics based on the heat load restrictions and current geometry specifications for the Yucca Mountain repository. This model was implemented in the VISION fuel cycle scenario analysis code and is used here to study the effects of separation efficiencies on repository loading for various AFCI fuel cycle scenarios. Improved separations efficiencies are shown to have continuing technical benefit in fuel cycles that recycle Am and Cm, but a substantial benefit can be achieved with modest separation efficiencies. (authors)

  4. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu Zhixi Bai, Hongtao Xu He Zhu Tan

    2011-11-15

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  5. solar land use | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    solar land use Home Rosborne318's picture Submitted by Rosborne318(5) Member 2 December, 2013 - 11:06 Request for Information Renewable Energy GenerationProduction Shreveport...

  6. Land Use License | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- OtherOther: Land Use LicenseLegal Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 2013 Legal Citation Not...

  7. pv land use | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    pv land use Home Rosborne318's picture Submitted by Rosborne318(5) Member 2 December, 2013 - 11:06 Request for Information Renewable Energy GenerationProduction Shreveport Airport...

  8. Agriculture, land use, and commercial biomass energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, J.A.; Wise, M.A.; Sands, R.D.; Brown, R.A.; Kheshgi, H.

    1996-06-01

    In this paper we have considered commercial biomass energy in the context of overall agriculture and land-use change. We have described a model of energy, agriculture, and land-use and employed that model to examine the implications of commercial biomass energy or both energy sector and land-use change carbon emissions. In general we find that the introduction of biomass energy has a negative effect on the extent of unmanaged ecosystems. Commercial biomass introduces a major new land use which raises land rental rates, and provides an incentive to bring more land into production, increasing the rate of incursion into unmanaged ecosystems. But while the emergence of a commercial biomass industry may increase land-use change emissions, the overall effect is strongly to reduce total anthropogenic carbon emissions. Further, the higher the rate of commercial biomass energy productivity, the lower net emissions. Higher commercial biomass energy productivity, while leading to higher land-use change emissions, has a far stronger effect on fossil fuel carbon emissions. Highly productive and inexpensive commercial biomass energy technologies appear to have a substantial depressing effect on total anthropogenic carbon emissions, though their introduction raises the rental rate on land, providing incentives for greater rates of deforestation than in the reference case.

  9. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) Marc Melaina, Ph.D. Team Lead for Infrastructure Analysis Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, NREL H2FAST Team: Brian Bush, Melanie Caton, Jon Duckworth, Dan Getman, Sara Havig, Marc Melaina, Michael Penev HTAC Meeting - April 21-22, 2015 Arlington, Virginia NREL/PR-5400-64138 Overview * Hydrogen Financial Analysis Simulation Tool (H2FAST) * H2FAST is a standard financial accounting framework applied to the DOE's H2A cost analysis models * There

  10. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  11. Land Use Baseline Report Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noah, J.C.

    1995-06-29

    This document is to serve as a resource for Savannah River Site managers, planners, and SRS stakeholders by providing a general description of the site and land-use factors important to future use decisions and plans. The intent of this document is to be comprehensive in its review of SRS and the surrounding area.

  12. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bush, B.; Penev, M.; Melaina, M.; Zuboy, J.

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  13. Agriculture and Land Use National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Agriculture and Land Use National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Agriculture and Land Use National Greenhouse Gas...

  14. RAPID/Geothermal/Land Use/Federal | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    RAPIDGeothermalLand UseFederal < RAPID | Geothermal | Land Use Jump to: navigation, search RAPID Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit BETA About Bulk...

  15. ORS 197 - Comprehensive Land Use Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    197 - Comprehensive Land Use Planning Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: ORS 197 - Comprehensive Land Use...

  16. California Land Use Planning Information Network | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land Use Planning Information Network Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- OtherOther: California Land Use Planning Information...

  17. Geothermal/Land Use Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GeothermalLand Use Planning < Geothermal Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Land Use Planning Leasing Exploration Well Field Power Plant Grid Connection...

  18. Montana - Land Use License Application | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land Use License Application Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library General: Montana - Land Use License Application Author Montana Department of Natural...

  19. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence Title Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel...

  20. Vermont Land Use: Essentials of Local Land Use Planning and Regulation...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Use: Essentials of Local Land Use Planning and Regulation Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - GuideHandbook:...

  1. Employment and land-use impacts of resource program elements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shankle, S A; Baechler, M C; Blondin, D W; Grover, S E

    1992-03-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) evaluated several power resource alternatives under consideration by the Bonneville Power Administration in its Resource Program Environmental Impact Statement (RPEIS). The purpose of this evaluation was to determine the potential impacts of each alternative in terms of land use and employment. We reviewed the literature that describes land-use and employment impacts to derive estimates of each type of effect. These estimates were scaled to a per-megawatt basis for use as multipliers in the RPEIS analysis. Multipliers for employment were taken from the literature and developed from power plant capital cost estimates. Land-use multipliers were taken from the literature or estimated from existing plants. In this report we compared information sources and estimates to develop the most applicable multipliers. Employment levels required (in terms of employee years per MW of plant capacity) for the construction and operation phases of each energy-generating resource alternative analyzed are shown. The amounts of land required (in terms of acres per MW capacity) for the construction and operation phases of each energy-generating resource alternatives analyzed are also shown.

  2. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  3. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1996-05-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  4. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1995-12-31

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  5. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baek, J. S.; Cheng, L. Y.; Diamond, D.

    2015-08-30

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  6. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  7. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  8. Oak Ridge reservation land-use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bibb, W. R.; Hardin, T. H.; Hawkins, C. C.; Johnson, W. A.; Peitzsch, F. C.; Scott, T. H.; Theisen, M. R.; Tuck, S. C.

    1980-03-01

    This study establishes a basis for long-range land-use planning to accommodate both present and projected DOE program requirements in Oak Ridge. In addition to technological requirements, this land-use plan incorporates in-depth ecological concepts that recognize multiple uses of land as a viable option. Neither environmental research nor technological operations need to be mutually exclusive in all instances. Unique biological areas, as well as rare and endangered species, need to be protected, and human and environmental health and safety must be maintained. The plan is based on the concept that the primary use of DOE land resources must be to implement the overall DOE mission in Oak Ridge. This document, along with the base map and overlay maps, provides a reasonably detailed description of the DOE Oak Ridge land resources and of the current and potential uses of the land. A description of the land characteristics, including geomorphology, agricultural productivity and soils, water courses, vegetation, and terrestrial and aquatic animal habitats, is presented to serve as a resource document. Essentially all DOE land in the Oak Ridge area is being fully used for ongoing DOE programs or has been set aside as protected areas.

  9. File:01LandUseOverview.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    1LandUseOverview.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:01LandUseOverview.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599 pixels. Other resolution: 464 ...

  10. H.R.S. 205 - Land Use | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    5 - Land Use Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: H.R.S. 205 - Land UseLegal Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect...

  11. Title 36 CFR 251 Land Uses | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    51 Land Uses Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- Federal RegulationFederal Regulation: Title 36 CFR 251 Land UsesLegal Abstract...

  12. Alaska Department of Natural Resources Land Use Planning Webpage...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Alaska Department of Natural Resources Land Use Planning Webpage Abstract This webpage provides an overview of Alaska's land use...

  13. Title 50 CFR 29 Land Use Management | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    9 Land Use Management Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- RegulationRegulation: Title 50 CFR 29 Land Use ManagementLegal Abstract...

  14. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Brian O'Neill, NCAR, Boulder, CO

    2009-10-14

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  15. Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S.; Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V.; Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P.; Liu, Y. Q.

    2014-08-15

    One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

  16. Scenario Jedi

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document summarizes an overview of the Scenario Solar PV Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model work.

  17. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This list describes the participants at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  18. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.

  19. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  20. INL Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    INL Land Use Committees. For more details, go to: https:inlportal.inl.govportalserver.ptcommunityhome 255cluesreport. Editorial Date September 1, 2011 By Brad Bugger...

  1. Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning Handbook | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - GuideHandbook: Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning HandbookPermittingRegulatory GuidanceGuideHandbook Abstract...

  2. EIS-0222: Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has prepared the EIS to evaluate the potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land-use plan (CLUP) for the Hanford Site for at least the next 50 years. DOE is expected to use this land-use plan in its decision-making process to establish what is the “highest and best use” of the land (41 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] 101-47, “Federal Property Management Regulations”). The final selection of a land-use map, land-use policies, and implementing procedures would create the working CLUP when they are adopted through the ROD for the EIS.

  3. Oregon Land Use Compatibility Statement for Onsite Wastewater...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Permits Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Form: Oregon Land Use Compatibility Statement for Onsite Wastewater Treatment System Permits Abstract...

  4. RAPID/BulkTransmission/Land Use | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    RAPIDBulkTransmissionLand Use < RAPID | BulkTransmission Jump to: navigation, search RAPID Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit BETA About Bulk Transmission...

  5. RAPID/Geothermal/Land Use | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    RAPIDGeothermalLand Use < RAPID | Geothermal Jump to: navigation, search RAPID Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit BETA About Bulk Transmission Geothermal...

  6. Accuracy Assessment for Forest and Land Use Maps (English version...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    www.leafasia.orglibraryusaid-leaf-accuracy-assessment-forest-and-lan Cost: Free Language: English Accuracy Assessment for Forest and Land Use Maps (English version)...

  7. Geothermal Direct-Use — Minimizing Land Use and Impact

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    With geothermal direct-use applications, land use issues usually only arise during exploration and development when geothermal reservoirs are located in or near urbanized areas, critical habitat...

  8. Oregon Land Use Compatibility Statements Website | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Statements Website Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Oregon Land Use Compatibility Statements Website Author Oregon Department of...

  9. An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-04-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  10. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu (PI) ... of the nationalglobal economy. * Metrics include: - Cost effectiveness: meeting US ...

  11. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  12. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-06-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries .

  13. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  14. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-04-01

    The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.

  15. Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.

  16. Land-Use Requirements for Solar Power Plants in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.; Heath, G.

    2013-06-01

    This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with utility-scale ground-mounted solar facilities, defined as installations greater than 1 MW. We begin by discussing standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature and then discuss their applicability to solar power plants. We present total and direct land-use results for various solar technologies and system configurations, on both a capacity and an electricity-generation basis. The total area corresponds to all land enclosed by the site boundary. The direct area comprises land directly occupied by solar arrays, access roads, substations, service buildings, and other infrastructure. As of the third quarter of 2012, the solar projects we analyze represent 72% of installed and under-construction utility-scale PV and CSP capacity in the United States.

  17. Risk D&D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-05-28

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health & safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects.

  18. Land Use and Water Efficiency in Current and Potential Future...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Water Efficiency in Current and Potential Future U.S. Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems (Poster) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Land Use and Water Efficiency ...

  19. Town of Chapel Hill- Land-Use Management Ordinance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In 2003, the Town of Chapel Hill adopted a land-use management ordinance that includes prohibitions against neighborhood or homeowners association covenants or other conditions of sale that...

  20. Application for State Land Use Lease: Commercial/Multi-Family...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    CommercialMulti-Family Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Reference: Application for State Land Use Lease: CommercialMulti-Family Published...

  1. Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Planning Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning Abstract The BLM's Resource Management Plans...

  2. Alaska Department of Natural Resources Land Use Plans | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Plans Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Alaska Department of Natural Resources Land Use Plans Published Publisher Not Provided, Date Not...

  3. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-09-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  4. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-12-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  5. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  6. Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios forEritrea, East Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Buskirk, Robert D.

    2004-05-07

    We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.

  7. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation PDF icon ...

  8. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Impact Analysis: VTO Baseline and Scenario (BaSce) Activities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Argonne National Laboratory at 2015 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about impact analysis:...

  9. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: Impact Analysis: VTO Baseline and Scenario (BaSce) Activities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Argonne National Laboratory at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about impact analysis...

  10. Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i SRNS-RP-2013-00162

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i SRNS-RP-2013-00162 Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i Table of Contents 1.0 - Purpose p1 2.0 - Executive Summary p1 3.0 - SRS Land Use Overview p5 Assumptions Current Land Use Leases, Transfers and Other Land Use Actions Future Land Use Land Use Issues 4.0 - Land Use Planning and Control for Existing Missions p13 Cleanup, Production and Support Missions Natural and Cultural Resource Management 5.0 - Process for Future Land Use Changes

  11. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  12. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis of Coconut-Derived Biodiesel and Conventional Diesel Fuel Samples from the Philippines Task 2 Final Report T.L. Alleman and R.L. McCormick Milestone Report NREL/MP-540-38643 January 2006 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 Analysis of Coconut-

  13. Developing a methodology and building a team to ensure objectivity in future land use planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cusick, L.T.

    1995-12-01

    The paper describes the steps involved in the development of an integrated methodology for identifying future land use options on Department of Energy (DOE) property and the establishment of a team to undertake the analysis. Three sources of information are considered: (1) internal and external stakeholder preferences, (2) economic data, and (3) environmental data. The analysis is part of a DOE process to propose future land use options for its real property while considering DOE missions and the expressed preferences of stakeholders. The process is presently ongoing at several DOE facilities; the analysis described herein is taking place on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Further described in this paper are the benefits of considering stakeholder preferences in determining future land uses and the necessity of weighing economic factors and their effects on stakeholder preferences. Similarly, this paper details the need for considering environmental information to ascertain the value of the ORR`s ecological resources. During the analysis taking place on the ORR, a methodology will be developed to integrate these varied data sets and to address both the individual and the combined effects of economic and environmental factors on stakeholders preferences. Several future land use options which will result form the analysis must be: (1) technically sound and promote informed decision-making, (2) understood by the parties involved, and (3) options that can be supported by the parties involved. This framework may be used in combination with defined technical, regulatory, and legal requirements to define achievable remediation goals for the ORR.

  14. Idaho National Laboratory Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    No name listed on publication

    2011-08-01

    Land and facility use planning and decisions at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site are guided by a comprehensive site planning process in accordance with Department of Energy Policy 430.1, 'Land and Facility Use Policy,' that integrates mission, economic, ecologic, social, and cultural factors. The INL Ten-Year Site Plan, prepared in accordance with Department of Energy Order 430.1B, 'Real Property Asset Management,' outlines the vision and strategy to transform INL to deliver world-leading capabilities that will enable the Department of Energy to accomplish its mission. Land use planning is the overarching function within real property asset management that integrates the other functions of acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization, and long-term stewardship into a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met. All land and facility use projects planned at the INL Site are considered through a formal planning process that supports the Ten-Year Site Plan. This Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report describes that process. The land use planning process identifies the current condition of existing land and facility assets and the scope of constraints across INL and in the surrounding region. Current land use conditions are included in the Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report and facility assets and scope of constraints are discussed in the Ten-Year Site Plan. This report also presents the past, present, and future uses of land at the INL Site that are considered during the planning process, as well as outlining the future of the INL Site for the 10, 30, and 100-year timeframes.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of synergistic collaborative scenarios towards sustainable nuclear energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fesenko, G.; Kuznetsov, V.; Poplavskaya, E.

    2013-07-01

    The paper presents results of the study on the role of collaboration among countries towards sustainable global nuclear energy systems. The study explores various market shares for nuclear fuel cycle services, possible scale of collaboration among countries and assesses benefits and issues relevant for collaboration between suppliers and users of nuclear fuel cycle services. The approach used in the study is based on a heterogeneous world model with grouping of the non-personified nuclear energy countries according to different nuclear fuel cycle policies. The methodology applied in the analysis allocates a fraction of future global nuclear energy generation to each of such country-groups as a function of time. The sensitivity studies performed show the impacts of the group shares on the scope of collaboration among countries and on the resulting possible reactor mix and nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure versus time. The study quantitatively demonstrates that the synergistic approach to nuclear fuel cycle has a significant potential for offering a win-win collaborative strategy to both, technology holders and technology users on their joint way to future sustainable nuclear energy systems. The study also highlights possible issues on such a collaborative way. (authors)

  16. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  17. Hydrogen Scenario Analysis Summary Report: Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; James, Brian; Perez, Julie; Melendez, Margo; Milbrandt, Anelia; Unnasch, Stefan; Rutherford, Daniel; Hooks, Matthew

    2008-03-01

    Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The interaction of these agents in the marketplace will determine the real costs and benefits of early market transformation policies, and ultimately the success of the transition itself. The transition to hydrogen-powered transportation faces imposing economic barriers. The challenges include developing and refining a new and different power-train technology, building a supporting fuel infrastructure, creating a market for new and unfamiliar vehicles, and achieving economies of scale in vehicle production while providing an attractive selection of vehicle makes and models for car-buyers. The upfront costs will be high and could persist for a decade or more, delaying profitability until an adequate number of vehicles can be produced and moved into consumer markets. However, the potential rewards to the economy, environment, and national security are immense. Such a profound market transformation will require careful planning and strong, consistent policy incentives. Section 811 of the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 2005, Public Law 109-59 (U.S. House, 2005), calls for a report from the Secretary of Energy on measures to support the transition to a hydrogen economy. The report was to specifically address production and deployment of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and the hydrogen production and delivery infrastructure needed to support those vehicles. In addition, the 2004 report of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 2004), The Hydrogen Economy, contained two recommendations for analyses to be conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to strengthen hydrogen energy transition and infrastructure planning for the hydrogen economy. In response to the EPACT requirement and NAS recommendations, DOE's Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure and hydrogen resources necessary to support the committee's hydrogen vehicle penetration scenario, or another similar demand scenario (NAS, 2004, p. 4).' Each of the scenarios was extensively discussed at the stakeholder meetings and each received support from industry. Although there was no consensus on a particular vehicle penetration rate, it was agreed that this set of scenarios is inclusive of industry expectations and could provide a basis to interpolate or extrapolate the results to other cases. The purpose of the DOE study was not to select any one scenario but to assess the costs and impacts of achieving each.

  18. Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics. I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rice, Panama, Peru, and Bolivia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, C.A.S.; Detwiler, R.P.; Bogdonoff, P.; Underhill, S.

    1985-01-01

    This group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, the authors use estimates of land use and carbon of land use and carbon storage organized into six life zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Their analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Their analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. They include sensitivity analysis of those factors that they found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.

  19. Hydrogen Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Frances Wood of OnLocation Inc. at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007

  20. EVALUATION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DATASETS FOR URBAN WATERSHED MODELING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S.J. BURIAN; M.J. BROWN; T.N. MCPHERSON

    2001-08-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) data are a vital component for nonpoint source pollution modeling. Most watershed hydrology and pollutant loading models use, in some capacity, LULC information to generate runoff and pollutant loading estimates. Simple equation methods predict runoff and pollutant loads using runoff coefficients or pollutant export coefficients that are often correlated to LULC type. Complex models use input variables and parameters to represent watershed characteristics and pollutant buildup and washoff rates as a function of LULC type. Whether using simple or complex models an accurate LULC dataset with an appropriate spatial resolution and level of detail is paramount for reliable predictions. The study presented in this paper compared and evaluated several LULC dataset sources for application in urban environmental modeling. The commonly used USGS LULC datasets have coarser spatial resolution and lower levels of classification than other LULC datasets. In addition, the USGS datasets do not accurately represent the land use in areas that have undergone significant land use change during the past two decades. We performed a watershed modeling analysis of three urban catchments in Los Angeles, California, USA to investigate the relative difference in average annual runoff volumes and total suspended solids (TSS) loads when using the USGS LULC dataset versus using a more detailed and current LULC dataset. When the two LULC datasets were aggregated to the same land use categories, the relative differences in predicted average annual runoff volumes and TSS loads from the three catchments were 8 to 14% and 13 to 40%, respectively. The relative differences did not have a predictable relationship with catchment size.

  1. Tropical Africa: Land use, biomass, and carbon estimates for 1980

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, S.; Gaston, G.; Daniels, R.C.

    1996-06-01

    This document describes the contents of a digital database containing maximum potential aboveground biomass, land use, and estimated biomass and carbon data for 1980 and describes a methodology that may be used to extend this data set to 1990 and beyond based on population and land cover data. The biomass data and carbon estimates are for woody vegetation in Tropical Africa. These data were collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with the possible magnitude of historical releases of carbon from land use change. Tropical Africa is defined here as encompassing 22.7 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} of the earth`s land surface and includes those countries that for the most part are located in Tropical Africa. Countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea and in southern Africa (i.e., Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Western Sahara) have maximum potential biomass and land cover information but do not have biomass or carbon estimate. The database was developed using the GRID module in the ARC/INFO{sup TM} geographic information system. Source data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the U.S. National Geophysical Data Center, and a limited number of biomass-carbon density case studies. These data were used to derive the maximum potential and actual (ca. 1980) aboveground biomass-carbon values at regional and country levels. The land-use data provided were derived from a vegetation map originally produced for the FAO by the International Institute of Vegetation Mapping, Toulouse, France.

  2. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  3. Assessing the health equity impacts of regional land-use plan making: An equity focussed health impact assessment of alternative patterns of development of the Whitsunday Hinterland and Mackay Regional Plan, Australia (Short report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gunning, Colleen; Harris, Patrick; Mallett, John

    2011-07-15

    Health service and partners completed an equity focussed health impact assessment to influence the consideration of health and equity within regional land-use planning in Queensland, Australia. This project demonstrated how an equity oriented assessment matrix can assist in testing regional planning scenarios. It is hoped that this HIA will contribute to the emerging interest in ensuring that potential differential health impacts continue to be considered as part of land-use planning processes.

  4. Standard Scenarios Annual Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  5. File:01NVAStateLandUsePlanning (1).pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    1NVAStateLandUsePlanning (1).pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage Metadata File:01NVAStateLandUsePlanning (1).pdf Size of this preview: 463 599 pixels....

  6. Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 25 June, 2013 - 12:10 acres csp land use how much land land...

  7. IC 67-75 - Local Land Use Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    67-75 - Local Land Use Planning Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: IC 67-75 - Local Land Use PlanningLegal Published...

  8. OAR 660-015 - Land Use Planning Statewide Planning Goals | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    60-015 - Land Use Planning Statewide Planning Goals Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- RegulationRegulation: OAR 660-015 - Land Use...

  9. Idaho - IS 67-6508 - Land Use Planning Duties | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    IS 67-6508 - Land Use Planning Duties Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: Idaho - IS 67-6508 - Land Use Planning...

  10. GIZ Sourcebook Module 2a: Land Use Planning and Urban Transport...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GIZ Sourcebook Module 2a: Land Use Planning and Urban Transport (Espaol) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: GIZ Sourcebook Module 2a: Land Use Planning...

  11. File:01-FD-b - LandUsePlanAmendmentProcess.pdf | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    FD-b - LandUsePlanAmendmentProcess.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage File:01-FD-b - LandUsePlanAmendmentProcess.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599...

  12. File:01-FD-a - LandUsePlanning.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    01-FD-a - LandUsePlanning.pdf Jump to: navigation, search File File history File usage File:01-FD-a - LandUsePlanning.pdf Size of this preview: 463 599 pixels. Other resolution:...

  13. Land-use Policy and Program Design Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pages S251-S264 | Wheater, H.; Evans, E. Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia Land Use Policy, Volume 28, Issue 1, Pages...

  14. An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) Paul Denholm, Yih-Huei Wan, Marissa Hummon, Mark Mehos March 2013 NREL/PR-6A20-58470 2 Motivation * Implement concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) in a commercial production cost model o Develop approaches that can be used by utilities and system planners to incorporate CSP in standard planning tools * Evaluate the optimal dispatch of CSP with

  15. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  16. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions ...

  17. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken; Ruiz, Fernando; Marzoli, Walter; Guerrero, Gabriela; Masera, Omar; Dushku, Aaron; Dejong,Ben; Cornell, Joseph

    2007-06-01

    Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors(less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We proposefrom the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps andsix tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We alsopropose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because,although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to beunrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-usechange and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analyticdomain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project),obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate historic baseline drivers,and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, abaseline of where deforestation is likely to occur --a potential land-usechange (PLUC) map is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD thatuses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation areprojected over a 10-year baseline period using any of the three models.Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stockestimates, baselineprojections are developed that can be used for projectGHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, atagreed interval (eg, +10 years), the baseline assumptions about baselinedrivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-yearbaseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g.,new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potentialland-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could beredone at the agreed interval, allowing the rates and changes in spatialdrivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, orderivation of a new baseline projection.

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    S. 09 BIOMASS FUELS; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; BSM; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; BIOFUEL INCENTIVES; SCENARIOS; Bioenergy;...

  19. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  20. Impact of land use change on the local climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Lu, S.; Li, S.; Miller, N.L.

    2010-04-01

    Observational data show that the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) has a significant downward trend over the east Tibetan Plateau (TP), while a warming trend is found in the same area. Further analysis indicates that this warming trend mainly results from the nighttime warming. The Single-Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) version 3.1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to investigate the role of land use change in the TP local climate system and isolate the contribution of land use change to the warming. Two sets of SCAM simulations were performed at the Xinghai station that is located near the center of the TP Sanjiang (three rivers) Nature Reserve where the downward LAI trend is largest. These simulations were forced with the high and low LAIs. The modeling results indicate that, when the LAI changes from high to low, the daytime temperature has a slight decrease, while the nighttime temperature increases significantly, which is consistent with the observations. The modeling results further show that the lower surface roughness length plays a significant role in affecting the nighttime temperature increase.

  1. Spatial decision support for strategic environmental assessment of land use plans. A case study in southern Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geneletti, Davide . E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it; Bagli, Stefano . E-mail: home@gecosistema.it; Napolitano, Paola . E-mail: home@gecosistema.it

    2007-07-15

    This paper presents and discusses the construction of a spatial decision-support tool for the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of a land use plan: the spatial coordination plan of the Province of Naples, in southern Italy. The decision-support tool organises the relevant information, spatially resolves the actions of the plan, predicts their environmental impacts, and generates overall performance maps. Its final goal is to provide a suitable technical support to a formal SEA procedure. The expected implications of the plan, such as changes in land use and traffic flows and urban expansion, were modelled and assessed against a set of environmental criteria using SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis and mapping. It was found that the SWOT analysis provided a good basis for assessment and strategy formulation. The paper also intends to contribute to the topic of data and scale issues in SEA, by exemplifying the role played by spatial data and spatial analyses to support informative SEA.

  2. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  3. Bureau of Land Management - Table 1.4-1 - Land Use Planning Process...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LibraryAdd to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - Instructions: Bureau of Land Management - Table 1.4-1 - Land Use Planning Process StepsPermittingRegulatory...

  4. Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Forestry Sectors Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture and Forestry...

  5. Land-Use Requirements of Modern Wind Power Plants in the United...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 August 2009 Land-Use Requirements of Modern Wind Power Plants in the United States Paul Denholm, Maureen Hand, Maddalena Jackson, and Sean Ong National Renewable Energy...

  6. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO{sub 2} emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO{sub 2} emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO{sub 2} emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.

  7. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' Manual and Technical Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunn, Jennifer B.; Qin, Zhangcai; Mueller, Steffen; Kwon, Ho-young; Wander, Michelle M.; Wang, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released September 30, 2014 which includes corn and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass.

  8. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' manual and technical documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, S; Dunn, JB; Wang, M

    2012-06-07

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released May 31, 2012 which includes corn, as did the previous CCLUB version, and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. CCLUB calculations are based upon two data sets: land change areas and above- and below-ground carbon content. Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within the CCLUB model, which is built in MS Excel. Land change area data is from Purdue University's Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic model. Section 2 describes the GTAP data CCLUB uses and how these data were modified to reflect shrubland transitions. Feedstock- and spatially-explicit below-ground carbon content data for the United States were generated with a surrogate model for CENTURY's soil organic carbon sub-model (Kwon and Hudson 2010) as described in Section 3. CENTURY is a soil organic matter model developed by Parton et al. (1987). The previous CCLUB version used more coarse domestic carbon emission factors. Above-ground non-soil carbon content data for forest ecosystems was sourced from the USDA/NCIAS Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) as explained in Section 4. We discuss emission factors used for calculation of international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Section 5. Temporal issues associated with modeling LUC emissions are the topic of Section 6. Finally, in Section 7 we provide a step-by-step guide to using CCLUB and obtaining results.

  9. Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, Hanford Site, Richland, Washington

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    N /A

    1999-10-01

    This Final ''Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement'' (HCP EIS) is being used by the Department of Energy (DOE) and its nine cooperating and consulting agencies to develop a comprehensive land-use plan (CLUP) for the Hanford Site. The DOE will use the Final HCP EIS as a basis for a Record of Decision (ROD) on a CLUP for the Hanford Site. While development of the CLUP will be complete with release of the HCP EIS ROD, full implementation of the CLUP is expected to take at least 50 years. Implementation of the CLUP would begin a more detailed planning process for land-use and facility-use decisions at the Hanford Site. The DOE would use the CLUP to screen proposals. Eventually, management of Hanford Site areas would move toward the CLUP land-use goals. This CLUP process could take more than 50 years to fully achieve the land-use goals.

  10. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

    2009-09-30

    The Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling and Analysis Partnership (REMAP) sponsors ongoing workshops to discuss individual 'renewable' technologies, energy/economic modeling, and - to some extent - policy issues related to renewable energy. Since 2002, the group has organized seven workshops, each focusing on a different renewable technology (geothermal, solar, wind, etc.). These workshops originated and continue to be run under an informal partnership of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). EPA originally funded the activities, but support is now shared between EPA and EERE. REMAP has a wide range of participating analysts and models/modelers that come from government, the private sector, and academia. Modelers include staff from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), NREL, EPA, Resources for the Future (RFF), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), ICF International, OnLocation Inc., and Boston University. The working group has more than 40 members, which also includes representatives from DOE, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and ACORE. This report summarizes the activities and findings of the REMAP activity that started in late 2006 with a kickoff meeting, and concluded in mid-2008 with presentations of final results. As the project evolved, the group compared results across models and across technologies rather than just examining a specific technology or activity. The overall goal was to better understand how and why different energy models give similar and/or different answers in response to a set of focused energy-related questions. The focus was on understanding reasons for model differences, not on policy implications, even though a policy of high renewable penetration was used for the analysis. A group process was used to identify the potential question (or questions) to be addressed through the project. In late 2006, increasing renewable energy penetration in the electricity sector was chosen from among several options as the general policy to model. From this framework, the analysts chose a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) as the way to implement the required renewable energy market penetration in the models. An RPS was chosen because it was (i) of interest and represented the group's consensus choice, and (ii) tractable and not too burdensome for the modelers. Because the modelers and analysts were largely using their own resources, it was important to consider the degree of effort required. In fact, several of the modelers who started this process had to discontinue participation because of other demands on their time. Federal and state RPS policy is an area of active political interest and debate. Recognizing this, participants used this exercise to gain insight into energy model structure and performance. The results are not intended to provide any particular insight into policy design or be used for policy advocacy, and participants are not expected to form a policy stance based on the outcomes of the modeling. The goals of this REMAP project - in terms of the main topic of renewable penetration - were to: (1) Compare models and understand why they may give different results to the same question, (2) Improve the rigor and consistency of assumptions used across models, and (3) Evaluate the ability of models to measure the impacts of high renewable-penetration scenarios.

  11. Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.; Han, J.; Haq, Z; Tyner, .W.; Wu, M.; Elgowainy, A.

    2011-05-01

    Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam{sup 3} in 1980 to over 40.1 hm{sup 3} in 2009 - and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.

  12. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  13. Reinterpreting SMCRA: {open_quotes}Permitting{close_quotes} phased postmining land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merkin, Z.R.; Nieman, T.J.

    1996-12-31

    The coal producing area of Appalachian Kentucky has a shortage of developable land. The majority of mined land in this region has been reclaimed to pastureland or hayland, while narrow interpretation of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (SMCRA) and regulations, especially regarding bond release, has limited alternative postmining land uses which could support economic development. A study of Federal and State of Kentucky laws and regulations shows that postmining land use regulations and their implementation have focussed on preventing and minimizing environmental damage. Land use and land use planning concepts are not well understood, thus permit applications inadequately address land use needs and the {open_quotes}highest and best use{close_quotes} of a site. Required information about pre-mining conditions is not collected and analyzed in a way useful for determining appropriate postmining land use. More comprehensive, higher quality land use information, with information about regional factors such as transportation, utilities, labor market, etc., should be included in the permit application to identify sites with strong development potential. This, combined with a broader interpretation of the law recognizing the validity of a phased implementation of postmined land use, would continue environmental protection while preparing reclaimed land to meet potential future land use needs. The mining plan can be designed so that appropriate areas are prepared and laid out for future buildings or roads, yet are conducive to interim use for pasture, wildlife or recreation. Reclamation to the interim use, sufficient to protect the public and allow bond release, maintains the potential for later development. Land later can be made available in response to development demands, contributing to a more diversified economy.

  14. REF Scenario Viewer

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Futures Study Scenario Viewer National Renewable Energy Laboratory Loading Data and Visualizations NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy ...

  15. Brazil's biofuels scenario

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DO ETANOL Brazil's biofuels scenario: What are the main drivers which will shape investments in the long term? Artur Yabe Milanez Manager BNDES Biofuels Department LIVRO VERDE ...

  16. Long-term Differences in Tillage and Land Use Affect Intra-aggregate Pore Heterogeneity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravchenko, A.N.; Wang, A.N.W.; Smucker, A.J.M.; Rivers, M.L.

    2012-10-25

    Recent advances in computed tomography provide measurement tools to study internal structures of soil aggregates at micrometer resolutions and to improve our understanding of specific mechanisms of various soil processes. Fractal analysis is one of the data analysis tools that can be helpful in evaluating heterogeneity of the intra-aggregate internal structures. The goal of this study was to examine how long-term tillage and land use differences affect intra-aggregate pore heterogeneity. The specific objectives were: (i) to develop an approach to enhance utility of box-counting fractal dimension in characterizing intra-aggregate pore heterogeneity; (ii) to examine intra-aggregate pores in macro-aggregates (4-6 mm in size) using the computed tomography scanning and fractal analysis, and (iii) to compare heterogeneity of intra-aggregate pore space in aggregates from loamy Alfisol soil subjected to 20 yr of contrasting management practices, namely, conventional tillage (chisel plow) (CT), no-till (NT), and native succession vegetation (NS). Three-dimensional images of the intact aggregates were obtained with a resolution of 14.6 {micro}m at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL. Proposed box-counting fractal dimension normalization was successfully implemented to estimate heterogeneity of pore voxel distributions without bias associated with different porosities in soil aggregates. The aggregates from all three studied treatments had higher porosity associated with large (>100 {micro}m) pores present in their centers than in their exteriors. Pores 15 to 60 {micro}m were equally abundant throughout entire aggregates but their distributions were more heterogeneous in aggregate interiors. The CT aggregates had greater numbers of pores 15 to 60 {micro}m than NT and NS. Distribution of pore voxels belonging to large pores was most heterogeneous in the aggregates from NS, followed by NT and by CT. This result was consistent with presence of very large pores associated with former root channels in NT and NS aggregates. Our findings indicate that mechanisms of macro-aggregate formation might differ in their importance in different land use and management practices.

  17. NREL Report Firms Up Land-Use Requirements of Solar - News Releases | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Report Firms Up Land-Use Requirements of Solar Study shows solar for 1,000 homes would require 32 acres July 30, 2013 The Energy Department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published a report on the land use requirements of solar power plants based on actual land-use practices from existing solar facilities. "Having real data from a majority of the solar plants in the United States will help people make proper comparisons and informed decisions," lead author Sean Ong

  18. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Models (GCAMs) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAMs afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAMs pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  19. Idaho IC 67-6508, Planning Duties for Local Land Use | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Idaho IC 67-6508, Planning Duties for Local Land Use Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: Idaho IC 67-6508, Planning...

  20. Title 10 Chapter 151 State Land Use and Development Plans | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Title 10 Chapter 151 State Land Use and Development Plans Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: Title 10 Chapter 151...

  1. RCW - 43.21B - Environmental and Land Use Hearings Office - Pollution...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    43.21B - Environmental and Land Use Hearings Office - Pollution Control Hearings Board Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document-...

  2. Los Alamos National Laboratory Investigates Fenton Hill to Support Future Land Use

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    LOS ALAMOS, N.M. – Supporting future land use for the U.S. Forest Service, Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Corrective Actions Program (CAP) completed sampling soil at Fenton Hill in the Jemez Mountains this month.

  3. Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol July 16, ... Estimates of LUC GHG emissions focus mainly on corn ethanol and vary widely. Increasing ...

  4. I.C. 67-65 - Local Land Use Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- StatuteStatute: I.C. 67-65 - Local Land Use PlanningLegal Abstract This statute outlines the zoning and...

  5. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5

  6. Wind Power Siting: Public Acceptance and Land Use; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, Suzanne

    2015-06-17

    Suzanne Tegen presented this information as part of the June 17, 2015 WINDExchange webinar: Overcoming Wind Siting Challenges III: Public Acceptance and Land Use. This presentation provides an overview of current NREL research related to wind energy deployment considerations, the DOE Wind Vision as it relates to public acceptance and land use, why public acceptance of wind power matters, where the U.S. wind resource is best, and how those rich resource areas overlay with population centers.

  7. Implications of High Renewable Electricity Penetration in the U.S. for Water Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land-Use, and Materials Supply

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recent work found that renewable energy could supply 80% of electricity demand in the contiguous United States in 2050 at the hourly level. This paper explores some of the implications of achieving such high levels of renewable electricity for supply chains and the environment in scenarios with renewable supply up to such levels. Transitioning to high renewable electricity supply would lead to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and water use, with only modest land-use implications. While renewable energy expansion implies moderate growth of the renewable electricity supply chains, no insurmountable long-term constraints to renewable electricity technology manufacturing capacity or materials supply are identified.

  8. Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850 to 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2001-02-22

    The database documented in this numeric data package, a revision to a database originally published by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) in 1995, consists of annual estimates, from 1850 through 1990, of the net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere resulting from deliberate changes in land cover and land use, especially forest clearing for agriculture and the harvest of wood for wood products or energy. The data are provided on a year-by-year basis for nine regions (North America, South and Central America, Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, Tropical Africa, the Former Soviet Union, China, South and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Developed Region) and the globe. Some data begin earlier than 1850 (e.g., for six regions, areas of different ecosystems are provided for the year 1700) or extend beyond 1990 (e.g., fuelwood harvest in South and Southeast Asia, by forest type, is provided through 1995). The global net flux during the period 1850 to 1990 was 124 Pg of carbon (1 petagram = 10{sup 15} grams). During this period, the greatest regional flux was from South and Southeast Asia (39 Pg of carbon), while the smallest regional flux was from North Africa and the Middle East (3 Pg of carbon). For the year 1990, the global total net flux was estimated to be 2.1 Pg of carbon.

  9. Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G.; Tharp, M Lynn; Fogel, Jonah

    2009-02-01

    Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

  10. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP): An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, Nate; Jenkin, Thomas; Milford, James; Short, Walter; Sullivan, Patrick; Evans, David; Lieberman, Elliot; Goldstein, Gary; Wright, Evelyn; Jayaraman, Kamala R.; Venkatesh, Boddu; Kleiman, Gary; Namovicz, Christopher; Smith, Bob; Palmer, Karen; Wiser, Ryan; Wood, Frances

    2009-09-01

    Energy system modeling can be intentionally or unintentionally misused by decision-makers. This report describes how both can be minimized through careful use of models and thorough understanding of their underlying approaches and assumptions. The analysis summarized here assesses the impact that model and data choices have on forecasting energy systems by comparing seven different electric-sector models. This analysis was coordinated by the Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP), a collaboration among governmental, academic, and nongovernmental participants.

  11. Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010- 2025

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by DOE's Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C.

  12. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: Empirical evidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Kwon, Hoyoung; Mueller, Steffen; Wander, Michelle M.

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) change can be a major impact of land use change (LUC) associated with biofuel feedstock production. By collecting and analyzing data from worldwide field observations with major LUCs from cropland, grassland and forest to lands producing biofuel crops (i.e., corn, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar and willow), we were able to estimate SOC response ratios and sequestration rates and evaluate the effects of soil depth and time scale on SOC change. Both the amount and rate of SOC change were highly dependent on the specific land transition. Irrespective of soil depth or time horizon, cropland conversions resulted in an overall SOC gain of 6-14% relative to initial SOC level, while conversion from grassland or forest to corn (without residue removal) or poplar caused significant carbon loss (9-35%). No significant SOC changes were observed in land converted from grasslands or forests to switchgrass, Miscanthus or willow. The SOC response ratios were similar in both 0-30 and 0-100 cm soil depths in most cases, suggesting SOC changes in deep soil and that use of top soil only for SOC accounting in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) might underestimate total SOC changes. Soil carbon sequestration rates varied greatly among studies and land transition types. Generally, the rates of SOC change tended to be the greatest during the 10 years following land conversion, and had declined to approach 0 within about 20 years for most LUCs. Observed trends in SOC change were generally consistent with previous reports. Soil depth and duration of study significantly influence SOC change rates and so should be considered in carbon emission accounting in biofuel LCA. High uncertainty remains for many perennial systems, field trials and modeling efforts are needed to determine the site- and system-specific rates and direction of change associated with their production.

  13. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  14. A top-down assessment of energy, water and land use in uranium mining, milling, and refining

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    E. Schneider; B. Carlsen; E. Tavrides; C. van der Hoeven; U. Phathanapirom

    2013-11-01

    Land, water and energy use are key measures of the sustainability of uranium production into the future. As the most attractive, accessible deposits are mined out, future discoveries may prove to be significantly, perhaps unsustainably, more intensive consumers of environmental resources. A number of previous attempts have been made to provide empirical relationships connecting these environmental impact metrics to process variables such as stripping ratio and ore grade. These earlier attempts were often constrained by a lack of real world data and perform poorly when compared against data from modern operations. This paper conditions new empirical models of energy, water and land use in uranium mining, milling, and refining on contemporary data reported by operating mines. It shows that, at present, direct energy use from uranium production represents less than 1% of the electrical energy produced by the once-through fuel cycle. Projections of future energy intensity from uranium production are also possible by coupling the empirical models with estimates of uranium crustal abundance, characteristics of new discoveries, and demand. The projections show that even for the most pessimistic of scenarios considered, by 2100, the direct energy use from uranium production represents less than 3% of the electrical energy produced by the contemporary once-through fuel cycle.

  15. The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-06-01

    Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

  16. ANL/AA-19 Land Use and Energy K. E. Robeck, S. W. Ballou, D....

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Matheny. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi ABSTRACT 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 EXTRACTION 9 2.1 Coal 9 2.1.1 Land Requirements 11 2.1.2 Past and Future Land Use 13 2.2 Oil and Oil Shale 16...

  17. Ecological perspectives of land use history: The Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hinds, N R; Rogers, L E

    1991-07-01

    The objective of this study was to gather information on the land use history of the Arid Land Ecology (ALE) Reserve so that current ecological research could be placed within a historical perspective. The data were gathered in the early 1980s by interviewing former users of the land and from previously published research (where available). Interviews with former land users of the ALE Reserve in Benton County, Washington, revealed that major land uses from 1880 to 1940 were homesteading, grazing, oil/gas production, and road building. Land use practices associated with grazing and homesteading have left the greatest impact on the landscape. Disturbed sites where succession is characterized by non-native species, plots where sagebrush was railed away, and sheep trails are major indications today of past land uses. Recent estimates of annual bunchgrass production do ALE do not support the widespread belief that bunchgrass were more productive during the homesteading era, though the invasion of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), Jim Hill mustard (Sisymbrium altissium), and other European alien plant species has altered pre-settlement succession patterns. 15 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Land-use history alters contemporary insect herbivore community composition and decouples plant-herbivore relationships.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hahn, Philip G.; Orrock, John L.

    2015-04-01

    1. Past land use can create altered soil conditions and plant communities that persist for decades, although the effects of these altered conditions on consumers are rarely investigated. 2. Using a large-scale field study at 36 sites in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) woodlands, we examined whether historic agricultural land use leads to differences in the abundance and community composition of insect herbivores (grasshoppers, families Acrididae and Tettigoniidae). 3. We measured the cover of six plant functional groups and several environmental variables to determine whether historic agricultural land use affects the relationships between plant cover or environmental conditions and grasshopper assemblages. 4. Land-use history had taxa-specific effects and interacted with herbaceous plant cover to alter grasshopper abundances, leading to significant changes in community composition. Abundance of most grasshopper taxa increased with herbaceous cover in woodlands with no history of agriculture, but there was no relationship in post-agricultural woodlands. We also found that grasshopper abundance was negatively correlated with leaf litter cover. Soil hardness was greater in post-agricultural sites (i.e. more compacted) and was associated with grasshopper community composition. Both herbaceous cover and leaf litter cover are influenced by fire frequency, suggesting a potential indirect role of fire on grasshopper assemblages. 5. Our results demonstrate that historic land use may create persistent differences in the composition of grasshopper assemblages, while contemporary disturbances (e.g. prescribed fire) may be important for determining the abundance of grasshoppers, largely through the effect of fire on plants and leaf litter. Therefore, our results suggest that changes in the contemporary management regimes (e.g. increasing prescribed fire) may not be sufficient to shift the structure of grasshopper communities in post-agricultural sites towards communities in nonagricultural habitats. Rather, repairing degraded soil conditions and restoring plant communities are likely necessary for restoring grasshopper assemblages in post-agricultural woodlands.

  19. An Analysis Of The Impact Of Selected Carbon Capture And Storage Policy Scenarios On The US Fossil-Based Electric Power Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, Casie L.; Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2003-09-13

    CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is rapidly emerging as a potential key climate change mitigation option. However, as policymakers and industrial stakeholders begin the process of formulating new policy for implementing CCS technologies, participants require a tool to assess large-scale CCS deployment over a number of different possible future scenarios. This paper will analyze several scenarios using two state-of-the-art Battelle developed models, the MiniCAM and the CO2-GIS for examining CCS deployment. Outputs include the total amount of CO2 captured, total annual emissions, and fossil-based generating capacity.

  20. Description of GPRA08 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Background information for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review providing a description of GPRA08 scenarios.

  1. Meeting the Demand for Biofuels: Impact on Land Use and Carbon Mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khanna, Madhu; Jain, Atul; Onal, Hayri; Scheffran, Jurgen; Chen, Xiaoguang; Erickson, Matt; Huang, Haixiao; Kang, Seungmo.

    2011-08-14

    The purpose of this research was to develop an integrated, interdisciplinary framework to investigate the implications of large scale production of biofuels for land use, crop production, farm income and greenhouse gases. In particular, we examine the mix of feedstocks that would be viable for biofuel production and the spatial allocation of land required for producing these feedstocks at various gasoline and carbon emission prices as well as biofuel subsidy levels. The implication of interactions between energy policy that seeks energy independence from foreign oil and climate policy that seeks to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions for the optimal mix of biofuels and land use will also be investigated. This project contributes to the ELSI research goals of sustainable biofuel production while balancing competing demands for land and developing policy approaches needed to support biofuel production in a cost-effective and environmentally friendly manner.

  2. Tropical Africa: Land Use, Biomass, and Carbon Estimates for 1980 (NDP-055)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, S.

    2002-04-16

    This document describes the contents of a digital database containing maximum potential aboveground biomass, land use, and estimated biomass and carbon data for 1980. The biomass data and carbon estimates are associated with woody vegetation in Tropical Africa. These data were collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with estimating historical releases of carbon from land use change. Tropical Africa is defined here as encompassing 22.7 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} of the earth's land surface and is comprised of countries that are located in tropical Africa (Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Benin, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Zimbabwe (Rhodesia), Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Burkina Faso (Upper Volta), Zaire, and Zambia). The database was developed using the GRID module in the ARC/INFO{trademark} geographic information system. Source data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the U.S. National Geophysical Data Center, and a limited number of biomass-carbon density case studies. These data were used to derive the maximum potential and actual (ca. 1980) aboveground biomass values at regional and country levels. The land-use data provided were derived from a vegetation map originally produced for the FAO by the International Institute of Vegetation Mapping, Toulouse, France.

  3. Application of satellite and GIS technologies for land-cover and land-use mapping at the rural-urban fringe - A case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Treitz, P.M.; Howarth, P.J.; Gong, Peng )

    1992-04-01

    SPOT HRV multispectral and panchromatic data were recorded and coregistered for a portion of the rural-urban fringe of Toronto, Canada. A two-stage digital analysis algorithm incorporating a spectral-class frequency-based contextual classification of eight land-cover and land-use classes resulted in an overall Kappa coefficient of 82.2 percent for training-area data and a Kappa coefficient of 70.3 percent for test-area data. A matrix-overlay analysis was then performed within the geographic information system (GIS) to combine the land-cover and land-use classes generated from the SPOT digital classification with zoning information for the area. The map that was produced has an estimated interpretation accuracy of 78 percent. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provided a positional reference for new road networks. These networks, in addition to the new land-cover and land-use map derived from the SPOT HRV data, provide an up-to-date synthesis of change conditions in the area. 51 refs.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. Impacts of Array Configuration on Land-Use Requirements for Large-Scale Photovoltaic Deployment in the United States: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denholm, P.; Margolis, R. M.

    2008-05-01

    Land use is often cited as an important issue for renewable energy technologies. In this paper we examine the relationship between land-use requirements for large-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the U.S. and PV-array configuration. We estimate the per capita land requirements for solar PV and find that array configuration is a stronger driver of energy density than regional variations in solar insolation. When deployed horizontally, the PV land area needed to meet 100% of an average U.S. citizen's electricity demand is about 100 m2. This requirement roughly doubles to about 200 m2 when using 1-axis tracking arrays. By comparing these total land-use requirements with other current per capita land uses, we find that land-use requirements of solar photovoltaics are modest, especially when considering the availability of zero impact 'land' on rooftops. Additional work is need to examine the tradeoffs between array spacing, self-shading losses, and land use, along with possible techniques to mitigate land-use impacts of large-scale PV deployment.

  6. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hase, Kevin R.; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather; Boyer, Brian D.

    2012-07-10

    Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

  7. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to ...

  8. H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation on H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analysis for the DOE Hydrogen Delivery High-Pressure Tanks and Analysis Project Review Meeting held February 8-9, 2005 at Argonne National Laboratory

  9. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Authors Preface This report is one of several products ... and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL's market models ... energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. ...

  10. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  11. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  12. Greenhouse gas emissions from forest, land use and biomass burning in Tanzania

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matitu, M.R.

    1994-12-31

    Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}) gases are the main contributors to the greenhouse effect that consequently results in global warming. This paper examines the sources and sinks of these gases from/to forest, land use and biomass burning and their likely contribution to climate change using IPCC/OECD methodology. Emissions have been calculated in mass units of carbon and nitrogen Emissions and uptake have been summed for each gas and the emissions converted to full molecular weights. Mismanagement of forests and land misuse have contributed much to greenhouse gas emissions in Tanzania. For example, cultivation methods, forest clearing, burning of savannah grass and indiscriminate logging (non-sustainable logging) have contributed significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. These categories contribute more than 90% of total CO{sub 2} emissions. However, the study shows that shifting cultivation, savannah burning and forest clearing for conversion to permanent crop land and pasture are the main contributors.

  13. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, May; Zhang, Zhonglong

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was clearly attributable to the conversion of a large amount of land to switchgrass. The Middle Lower Missouri River and Lower Missouri River were identified as hot regions. Further analysis identified four subbasins (10240002, 10230007, 10290402, and 10300200) as being the most vulnerable in terms of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings. Overall, results suggest that increasing the amount of switchgrass acreage in the hot spots should be considered to mitigate the nutrient loads. The study provides an analytical method to support stakeholders in making informed decisions that balance biofuel production and water sustainability.

  14. Built Environment Energy Analysis Tool Overview (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, C.

    2013-04-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the Built Environment Energy Analysis Tool, which is designed to assess impacts of future land use/built environment patterns on transportation-related energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The tool can be used to evaluate a range of population distribution and urban design scenarios for 2030 and 2050. This tool was produced as part of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  15. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

    2008-02-01

    The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

  16. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  17. Land Use and Watersheds: Human Influence on Hydrology and Geomorphology in Urban and Forest Areas. Water Science and Application Series

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Burges, S J.

    2001-10-01

    What is the effect of urbanization and forest use on hydrologic and geomorphic processes? How can we develop land use policies that minimize adverse impacts on ecosystems while sustaining biodiversity? Land Use and Watersheds: Human Influence on Hydrology and Geomorphology in Urban and Forest Areas addresses these issues and more. By featuring watersheds principally in the American Pacific Northwest, and the effects of timber harvesting and road construction on stream flow, sediment yield and landslide occurrence, scientists can advance their understanding of what constitutes appropriate management of environments with similar hydro-climatic-geomorphic settings worldwide.

  18. Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

  19. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  1. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  2. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  3. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  4. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  5. A Dynamic Simulation of the Indirect Land Use Implications of Recent Biofuel Production and Use in the United States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Kline, Keith L

    2013-01-01

    The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17 ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of 0.13 ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

  6. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  7. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  8. Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    platform for comparing the cost of alternative hydrogen delivery and refueling options. Identify cost drivers of current hydrogen delivery and refueling technologies for various ...

  9. THE ROLE OF LAND USE IN ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING AT THREE DOE MEGA-CLEANUP SITES FERNALD & ROCKY FLATS & MOUND

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JEWETT MA

    2011-01-14

    This paper explores the role that future land use decisions have played in the establishment of cost-effective cleanup objectives and the setting of environmental media cleanup levels for the three major U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites for which cleanup has now been successfully completed: the Rocky Flats, Mound, and Fernald Closure Sites. At each site, there are distinct consensus-building histories throughout the following four phases: (1) the facility shut-down and site investigation phase, which took place at the completion of their Cold War nuclear-material production missions; (2) the decision-making phase, whereby stakeholder and regulatory-agency consensus was achieved for the future land-use-based environmental decisions confronting the sites; (3) the remedy selection phase, whereby appropriate remedial actions were identified to achieve the future land-use-based decisions; and (4) the implementation phase, whereby the selected remedial actions for these high-profile sites were implemented and successfully closed out. At each of the three projects, there were strained relationships and distrust between the local community and the DOE as a result of site contamination and potential health effects to the workers and local residents. To engage citizens and interested stakeholder groups - particularly in the role of final land use in the decision-making process, the site management teams at each respective site developed new public-participation strategies to open stakeholder communication channels with site leadership, technical staff, and the regulatory agencies. This action proved invaluable to the success of the projects and reaching consensus on appropriate levels of cleanup. With the implementation of the cleanup remedies now complete, each of the three DOE sites have become models for future environmental-remediation projects and associated decision making.

  10. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLMs net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAMs assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  11. ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool is an Excel-based scenario model that calculates the cost of electricity for custom generation profiles. This tool is intended to model scenarios in Hawaii and other islands. Data Entry Screens Scenario Details The Scenario Details screen serves as the main menu for the Scenario Tool and the starting point for using the tool. On this screen, users can create a new scenario, copy and modify an

  12. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  13. EIS-0222-SA-02: Supplement Analysis | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EIS-0222-SA-02: Supplement Analysis Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement DOE's Supplement Analysis evaluates present and proposed or reasonably ...

  14. EA-1936: Proposed Changes to Parcel ED-1 Land Uses, Utility Infrastructure, and Natural Area Management Responsibility, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE: This EA has been cancelled. This EA will evaluate the environmental impacts of DOE’s proposed modifications to the allowable land uses, utility infrastructure, and Natural Area management responsibility for Parcel ED-1. The purpose of the modifications is to enhance the development potential of the Horizon Center business/industrial park, while ensuring protection of the adjacent Natural Area. The area addressed by the proposed action was evaluated for various industrial/business uses in the Environmental Assessment Addendum for the Proposed Title Transfer of Parcel ED-1, DOE/EA-1113-A.

  15. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  16. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  17. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Steam Intrusion from Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  18. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  19. Transportation Secure Data Center: Real-World Data for Transportation Planning and Land Use Analysis (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) have launched the free, web-based Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC). The TSDC (www.nrel.gov/tsdc) preserves respondent anonymity while making vital transportation data available to a broad group of users through secure, online access. The TSDC database provides free-of-charge web-based access to valuable transportation data that can be used for: Transit planning, Travel demand modeling, Homeland Security evacuation planning, Alternative fuel station planning, and Validating transportation data from other sources. The TSDC's two levels of access make composite data available with simple online registration, and allow researchers to use detailed spatial data after completing a straight forward application process.

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  2. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  4. Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

    2012-09-30

    This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

  5. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Transcript

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This video demonstrates the Island Energy Scenario Tool developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Technology-to-Market program.

  6. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  7. Final Report for ''SOURCES AND SINKS OF CARBON FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT: A GLOBAL SYNTHESIS'' Project Period September 15, 2001--September 14, 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2003-12-12

    Land management and land-use change can either release carbon (as CO{sub 2}) to the atmosphere, for example when forests are converted to agricultural lands, or withdraw carbon from the atmosphere as forests grow on cleared lands or as management practices sequester carbon in soil. The purpose of this work was to calculate the annual sources and sinks of carbon from changes in land use and management, globally and for nine world regions, over the period 1850 to 2000. The approach had three components. First, rates of land-use change were reconstructed from historical information on the areas of croplands, pastures, forests, and other lands and from data on wood harvests. In most regions, land-use change included the conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel), and the establishment of tree plantations. In the U.S., woody encroachment and woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included. Second, the amount of carbon per hectare in vegetation and soils and changes in that carbon as a result of land-use change were determined from data obtained in the ecological and forestry literature. These data on land-use change and carbon stocks were then used in a bookkeeping model (third component) to calculate regional and global changes in terrestrial carbon. The results indicate that for the period 1850-2000 the net flux of carbon from changes in land use was 156 PgC. For comparison, emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels were approximately 280 PgC during the same interval. Annual emissions from land-use change exceeded emissions from fossil fuels before about 1920. Somewhat more that half (60%) of the long-term flux was from the tropics. Average annual fluxes during the 1980s and 1990s were 2.0 and 2.2 ({+-}0.8) PgC yr{sup -1} (30-40% of fossil fuel emissions), respectively. In these decades, the global sources of carbon were almost entirely from the tropics. Outside the tropics, the average net flux of carbon attributable to land-use change and management decreased from a source of 0.06 PgC yr{sup -1} during the 1980s to a sink of 0.03 PgC yr{sup -1} during the 1990s. According to these analyses, changes in land use were responsible for sinks in North America and Europe and for small sources in other non-tropical regions.

  8. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  9. integrated-land-use

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    institutional research Sniffing out danger from above NNSA's efforts to prevent, counter, and respond to the dangers of nuclear proliferation and terrorism are vital to U.S. national security. Terrorist attacks in the past year in Europe and the United States have highlighted the evolving and unpredictable nature of the threat. Science,... Institutional Research & Development Functions The Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing and Institutional R&D, a program office part of the

  10. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  11. Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C.E. Kessel; E.J. Synakowski; D.A. Gates; R.W. Harvey; S.M. Kaye; T.K. Mau; J. Menard; C.K. Phillips; G. Taylor; R. Wilson; the NSTX Research Team

    2004-10-28

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX [National Spherical Torus Experiment] that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high {beta} and high {beta}{sub N} inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high-beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current-drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high {beta} for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal start-up and plasma current ramp-up. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral-beam (NB) deposition profile, and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD [current drive] deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal-MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with {beta} {approx} 40% at {beta}{sub N}'s of 7.7-9, I{sub P} = 1.0 MA, and B{sub T} = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H{sub 98(y,2)} = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations.

  12. Sustainable Transport Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Scenarios Tool has been developed as a high-level calculator (not an in-depth model) to help provide indicative estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport...

  13. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Analysis...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Presentation by NREL's Margo Melendez at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen ... More Documents & Publications 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - ...

  14. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  15. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  16. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  17. Land-use legacies and present fire regimes interact to mediate herbivory by altering the neighboring plant community.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hahn, Philip G.; Orrock, John L.

    2015-04-01

    Past and present human activities, such as historic agriculture and fire suppression, are widespread and can create depauperate plant communities. Although many studies show that herbivory on focal plants depends on the density of herbivores or the composition of the surrounding plant community, it is unclear whether anthropogenic changes to plant communities alter herbivory. We tested the hypothesis that human activities that alter the plant community lead to subsequent changes in herbivory. At 20 sites distributed across 80 300 hectares, we conducted a field experiment that manipulated insect herbivore access (full exclosures and pseudo-exclosures) to four focal plant species in longleaf pine woodlands with diff erent land-use histories (post-agricultural sites or non-agricultural sites) and degrees of fi re frequency (frequent and infrequent). Plant cover, particularly herbaceous cover, was lower in post-agricultural and fi re suppressed woodlands. Density of the dominant insect herbivore at our site (grasshoppers) was positively related to plant cover. Herbivore access reduced biomass of the palatable forb Solidago odora in frequently burned post-agricultural sites and in infrequently burned non-agricultural woodlands and increased mortality of another forb (Pityopsis graminifolia ), but did not aff ect two other less palatable species ( Schizachyrium scoparium and Tephrosia virginiana ). Herbivory on S. odora exhibited a hump-shaped response to plant cover, with low herbivory at low and high levels of plant cover. Herbivore density had a weak negative effect on herbivory. These findings suggest that changes in plant cover related to past and present human activities can modify damage rates on focal S. odora plants by altering grasshopper foraging behavior rather than by altering local grasshopper density. The resulting changes in herbivory may have the potential to limit natural recovery or restoration eff orts by reducing the establishment or performance of palatable plant species.

  18. Development of An Empirical Water Quality Model for Stormwater Based on Watershed Land Use in Puget Sound

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cullinan, Valerie I.; May, Christopher W.; Brandenberger, Jill M.; Judd, Chaeli; Johnston, Robert K.

    2007-03-29

    The Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed is located on the west side of Puget Sound in Kitsap County, Washington, U.S.A. (Figure 1). The Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), U.S Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Washington State Department of Ecology (WA-DOE), Kitsap County, City of Bremerton, City of Bainbridge Island, City of Port Orchard, and the Suquamish Tribe have joined in a cooperative effort to evaluate water-quality conditions in the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed and correct identified problems. A major focus of this project, known as Project ENVVEST, is to develop Water Clean-up (TMDL) Plans for constituents listed on the 303(d) list within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed. Segments within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed were listed on the State of Washington’s 1998 303(d) because of fecal coliform contamination in marine water, metals in sediment and fish tissue, and organics in sediment and fish tissue (WA-DOE 2003). Stormwater loading was identified by ENVVEST as one potential source of sediment contamination, which lacked sufficient data for a contaminant mass balance calculation for the watershed. This paper summarizes the development of an empirical model for estimating contaminant concentrations in all streams discharging into Sinclair and Dyes Inlets based on watershed land use, 18 storm events, and wet/dry season baseflow conditions between November 2002 and May 2005. Stream pollutant concentrations along with estimates for outfalls and surface runoff will be used in estimating the loading and ultimately in establishing a Water Cleanup Plan (TMDL) for the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed.

  19. A technical review of urban land use - transportation models as tools for evaluating vehicle travel reduction strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Southworth, F.

    1995-07-01

    The continued growth of highway traffic in the United States has led to unwanted urban traffic congestion as well as to noticeable urban air quality problems. These problems include emissions covered by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), as well as carbon dioxide and related {open_quotes}greenhouse gas{close_quotes} emissions. Urban travel also creates a major demand for imported oil. Therefore, for economic as well as environmental reasons, transportation planning agencies at both the state and metropolitan area level are focussing a good deal of attention on urban travel reduction policies. Much discussed policy instruments include those that encourage fewer trip starts, shorter trip distances, shifts to higher-occupancy vehicles or to nonvehicular modes, and shifts in the timing of trips from the more to the less congested periods of the day or week. Some analysts have concluded that in order to bring about sustainable reductions in urban traffic volumes, significant changes will be necessary in the way our households and businesses engage in daily travel. Such changes are likely to involve changes in the ways we organize and use traffic-generating and-attracting land within our urban areas. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the ability of current analytic methods and models to support both the evaluation and possibly the design of such vehicle travel reduction strategies, including those strategies involving the reorganization and use of urban land. The review is organized into three sections. Section 1 describes the nature of the problem we are trying to model, Section 2 reviews the state of the art in operational urban land use-transportation simulation models, and Section 3 provides a critical assessment of such models as useful urban transportation planning tools. A number of areas are identified where further model development or testing is required.

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  1. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to meet a given energy transition goal by modeling the levelized cost of electricity for custom, user-defined scenarios of supply and demand. Download the tool and user guide below. For step-by-step instructions on how to use the tool, watch the video. Package icon ETI Energy Scenario Tool PDF icon ETI Energy Scenario Tool

  2. SEADS 3.0. Sectoral Energy/Employment Analysis and Data System Methodology, Description, and Users Guide. Two Policy Scenarios Examined: An Increase in Government R&D Implementation of Voluntary Intensity. Reductions in Industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roop, J. M.; Anderson, D. M.; Elliott, D. B.; Schultz, R. W.

    2007-12-01

    This report describes the tool and the underlying methodology for SEADS 3.0, the Sectoral Energy/Employment Analysis and Data System, which is a software package designed for the analysis of policy that could be described by modifying final demands of consumer, businesses, or governments. The report also provides a users manual, examples for two analyses and the results for them.

  3. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ... with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) ...

  4. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introduction...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Presentation Overview 1. SERA model overview 2. Methodology Scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development 3. Scenario example A "Hydrogen ...

  5. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Retrieved from "http:...

  6. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  7. LWR codes capability to address SFR BDBA scenarios: Modeling of the ABCOVE tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herranz, L. E.; Garcia, M.; Morandi, S.

    2012-07-01

    The sound background built-up in LWR source term analysis in case of a severe accident, make it worth to check the capability of LWR safety analysis codes to model accident SFR scenarios, at least in some areas. This paper gives a snapshot of such predictability in the area of aerosol behavior in containment. To do so, the AB-5 test of the ABCOVE program has been modeled with 3 LWR codes: ASTEC, ECART and MELCOR. Through the search of a best estimate scenario and its comparison to data, it is concluded that even in the specific case of in-containment aerosol behavior, some enhancements would be needed in the LWR codes and/or their application, particularly with respect to consideration of particle shape. Nonetheless, much of the modeling presently embodied in LWR codes might be applicable to SFR scenarios. These conclusions should be seen as preliminary as long as comparisons are not extended to more experimental scenarios. (authors)

  8. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  9. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration Patrick Sullivan, Wesley Cole, Nate Blair, Eric Lantz, Venkat Krishnan, Trieu Mai, David Mulcahy, and Gian Porro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-64072 July 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  10. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  11. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  12. Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other Land Uses April 2001, Discussion Paper 01-19

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sedjo, Roger; Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert

    2001-04-05

    This study develops cumulative carbon ''supply curves'' for global forests utilizing a dynamic timber supply model for sequestration of forest carbon. Because the period of concern is the next century, and particular time points within that century, the curves are not traditional Marshallian supply curves or steady-state supply curves. Rather, the focus is on cumulative carbon cost curves (quasi-supply curves) at various points in time over the next 100 years. The research estimates a number of long-term, cumulative, carbon quasi-supply curves under different price scenarios and for different time periods. The curves trace out the relationship between an intertemporal price path for carbon, as given by carbon shadow prices, and the cumulative carbon sequestered from the initiation of the shadow prices, set at 2000, to a selected future year (2010, 2050, 2100). The timber supply model demonstrates that cumulative carbon quasi-supply curves that can be generated through forestry significantly depend on initial carbon prices and expectations regarding the time profile of future carbon prices. Furthermore, long-run quasi-supply curves generated from a constant price will have somewhat different characteristics from quasi-supply curves generated with an expectation of rising carbon prices through time.The ?least-cost? curves vary the time periods under consideration and the time profile of carbon prices. The quasi-supply curves suggest that a policy of gradually increasing carbon prices will generate the least costly supply curves in the shorter periods of a decade or so. Over longer periods of time, however, such as 50 or 100 years, these advantages appear to dissipate.

  13. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  14. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  16. NREL: Energy Analysis: Geospatial Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Geospatial Analysis To perform and support geospatial analysis, NREL analyzes, maintains, and disseminates data sets and maps on renewable energy resources, energy infrastructure, demographics and land ownership, and the earth's physical geography (topography, land use, rivers). NREL's geographic information system models enable rapid visualization of these data, support informed decisions on renewable energy development across the globe, and provide the foundation for many of NREL's analytical

  17. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 ...

  18. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  19. HIPPS concepts for a subsea field scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lund, B.F.; Onshus, T.; Aaroe, R.

    1995-12-31

    This paper is based on a feasibility study investigating the possibilities of using a HIPPS (High Integrity Pressure Protection System) to protect a subsea pipeline which is not rated for full wellhead shut-in pressure. Several different HIPPS configurations have been evaluated with respect to safety, production regularity and various qualitative criteria for use in a specific subsea field scenario containing six wells. A preliminary review of the feasibility of current technology for HIPPS applications has been made. The conclusion is that a subsea HIPPS can be designed with satisfactory safety performance based on current technology. The paper also covers requirements posed to the HIPPS equipment as well as general requirements for process design and operation when a pipeline not rated for full well shut-in pressure is present.

  20. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  1. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    other technologies. Biomass Biomass Energy Data Book Buildings Buildings Energy Data Book Hydrogen Hydrogen Energy Data Book Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Marine and...

  2. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy statistics for 215 countries. The statistics include crude oil production, oil consumption, natural gas production and consumption, electricity generation and...

  3. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    for 215 countries. The statistics include crude oil production, oil consumption, natural gas production and consumption, electricity generation and consumption, primary energy,...

  4. NREL: Energy Analysis - Daniel Inman

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Systems and Sustainability Analysis Group in the Strategic Energy Analysis Center. ... Primary research interests Sustainability analysis Biomass Scenario Model Education and ...

  5. Energy Market Analysis | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Energy Market Analysis synthesizes all analysis efforts in the analysis spectrum. Scenario analyses, in the context of market analysis, are used to answer several questions: What ...

  6. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  7. Archaeology in the Kilauea East Rift Zone: Part 1, Land-use model and research design, Kapoho, Kamaili and Kilauea Geothermal Subzones, Puna District, Hawaii Island

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtchard, G.C.; Moblo, P.

    1994-07-01

    The Puna Geothermal Resource Subzones (GRS) project area encompasses approximately 22,000 acres centered on the Kilauea East Rift Zone in Puna District, Hawaii Island. The area is divided into three subzones proposed for geothermal power development -- Kilauea Middle East Rift, Kamaili and Kapoho GRS. Throughout the time of human occupation, eruptive episodes along the rift have maintained a dynamic landscape. Periodic volcanic events, for example, have changed the coastline configuration, altered patterns of agriculturally suitable sediments, and created an assortment of periodically active, periodically quiescent, volcanic hazards. Because of the active character of the rift zone, then, the area`s occupants have always been obliged to organize their use of the landscape to accommodate a dynamic mosaic of lava flow types and ages. While the specific configuration of settlements and agricultural areas necessarily changed in response to volcanic events, it is possible to anticipate general patterns in the manner in which populations used the landscape through time. This research design offers a model that predicts the spatial results of long-term land-use patterns and relates them to the character of the archaeological record of that use. In essence, the environmental/land-use model developed here predicts that highest population levels, and hence the greatest abundance and complexity of identifiable prehistoric remains, tended to cluster near the coast at places that maximized access to productive fisheries and agricultural soils. With the possible exception of a few inland settlements, the density of archaeological remains expected to decrease with distance from the coastline. The pattern is generally supported in the regions existing ethnohistoric and archaeological record.

  8. The role of plant-soil feedbacks and land-use legacies in restoration of a temperate steppe in northern China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Lili; Han, Xingguo; Zhang, Guangming; Kardol, Paul

    2010-11-01

    Plant soil feedbacks affect plant performance and plant community dynamics; however, little is known about their role in ecological restoration. Here, we studied plant soil feedbacks in restoration of steppe vegetation after agricultural disturbance in northern China. First, we analyzed abiotic and biotic soil properties under mono-dominant plant patches in an old-field restoration site and in a target steppe site. Second, we tested plant soil feedbacks by growing plant species from these two sites on soils from con- and heterospecific origin. Soil properties generally did not differ between the old-field site and steppe site, but there were significant differences among mono-dominant plant patches within the sites. While soil species origin (i.e., the plant species beneath which the soil was collected) affected biomass of individual plant species in the feedback experiment, species-level plant soil feedbacks were neutral . Soil site origin (old-field, steppe) significantly affected biomass of old-field and steppe species. For example, old-field species had higher biomass in old-field soils than in steppe soils, indicating a positive land-use legacy. However, soil site origin effects depended on the plant species beneath which the soils were collected. The predictive value of abiotic and biotic soil properties in explaining plant biomass differed between and within groups of old-field and steppe species. We conclude that the occurrence of positive land-use legacies for old-field species may retard successional replacement of old-field species by steppe species. However, high levels of idiosyncrasy in responses of old-field and steppe plant species to con- and heterospecific soils indicate interspecific variation in the extent to which soil legacies and plant soil feedbacks control successional species replacements in Chinese steppe ecosystems.

  9. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; ,

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  10. Appendix K: GPRA07 alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    This document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2007 Budget Request.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References (Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for

  12. Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training Center equips military units, as well as federal, state and local emergency response agencies with the hands-on skills and knowledge they need to safely detect, safeguard and handle real nuclear and radiological sources. To test their skills, Y-12 has developed training exercises that include the following scenarios:

  13. Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios: Learning from Experiences in Developing Countries Jump to: navigation, search Name Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

  14. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology ... Cybersecurity is important because the bi-directional flow of two-way communication and ...

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Lin...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Documentation: Data and References Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D. 09 BIOMASS FUELS BIOMASS SCENARIO MODEL; BSM; BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; MODEL; DATA; REFERENCES;...

  16. Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TOOL Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database AgencyCompany Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG...

  17. Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eucms...

  18. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

  19. Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

  20. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery ...

  1. Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  2. Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  3. EIS-0222-SA-01: Supplement Analysis | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EIS-0222-SA-01: Supplement Analysis Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement In September 1999 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued the Final ...

  4. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  5. NREL: Energy Analysis - Nate Blair

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP): An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in ...

  6. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Kong, Kyoungchul; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  7. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  8. Deployment Scenario of Heavy Water Cooled Thorium Breeder Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mardiansah, Deby; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2010-06-22

    Deployment scenario of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor has been studied. We have assumed to use plutonium and thorium oxide fuel in water cooled reactor to produce {sup 233}U which will be used in thorium breeder reactor. The objective is to analysis the potential of water cooled Th-Pu reactor for replacing all of current LWRs especially in Japan. In this paper, the standard Pressurize Water Reactor (PWR) has been designed to produce 3423 MWt; (i) Th-Pu PWR, (ii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR = 1.0) and (iii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR 1.2). The properties and performance of the core were investigated by using cell and core calculation code. Th-Pu PWR or HWR produces {sup 233}U to introduce thorium breeder reactor. The result showed that to replace all (60 GWe) LWR by thorium breeder reactor within a period of one century, Th-Pu oxide fueled PWR has insufficient capability to produce necessary amount of {sup 233}U and Th-Pu oxide fueled HWR has almost enough potential to produce {sup 233}U but shows positive void reactivity coefficient.

  9. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflageration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  10. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflagration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  11. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.

  12. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

  13. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  14. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been

  15. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  16. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kessel, C. E.; Campbell, D.; Gribov, Y.; Saibene, G.; Ambrosino, G.; Casper, T.; Cavinato, M.; Fujieda, H.; Hawryluk, R.; Horton, L. D.; Kavin, A.; Kharyrutdinov, R.; Koechl, F.; Leuer, J.; Loarte, A.; Lomas, P. J.; Luce, T.; Lukash, V.; Mattei, M.; Nunes, I.; Parail, V.; Polevoi, A.; Portone, A.; Sartori, R.; Sips, A. C.C.; Thomas, P. R.; Welander, A.; Wesley, J.

    2008-10-16

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation.

  17. Microsoft Word - Scenario E w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Treasury Rate 200bps (2.00%) o Initial Credit Spread 50 bps (0.50%) o TIC 250 bps (2.50%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  18. Microsoft Word - Scenario C w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  19. Microsoft Word - Scenario D w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  20. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Methodology (December 2013) | Department of Energy Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) The nation's power system consists of both legacy and next generation technologies. New grid technologies are introducing millions of novel, intelligent components to the electric grid that communicate in much more advanced ways than in

  1. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

  2. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  3. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  4. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

    2009-07-01

    Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.

  5. Cosmological moduli problem in large volume scenario and thermal inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, Kiwoon; Park, Wan-Il; Shin, Chang Sub E-mail: wipark@kias.re.kr

    2013-03-01

    We show that in a large volume scenario of type IIB string or F-theory compactifications, single thermal inflation provides only a partial solution to the cosmological problem of the light volume modulus. We then clarify the conditions for double thermal inflation, being a simple extension of the usual single thermal inflation scenario, to solve the cosmological moduli problem in the case of relatively light moduli masses. Using a specific example, we demonstrate that double thermal inflation can be realized in large volume scenario in a natural manner, and the problem of the light volume modulus can be solved for the whole relevant mass range. We also find that right amount of baryon asymmetry and dark matter can be obtained via a late-time Affleck-Dine mechanism and the decays of the visible sector NLSP to flatino LSP.

  6. Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  7. China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  8. Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  9. Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  10. Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  11. India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  12. Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  13. Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  14. A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.

    1997-01-01

    We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.

  15. Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Hand, M.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.

    2008-06-01

    In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used to support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis, the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performance improvements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.

  16. Low and high energy phenomenology of quark-lepton complementarity scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hochmuth, Kathrin A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich (Germany); Rodejohann, Werner [Physik-Department, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Strasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2007-04-01

    We conduct a detailed analysis of the phenomenology of two predictive seesaw scenarios leading to quark-lepton complementarity. In both cases we discuss the neutrino mixing observables and their correlations, neutrinoless double beta decay and lepton flavor violating decays such as {mu}{yields}e{gamma}. We also comment on leptogenesis. The first scenario is disfavored on the level of one to two standard deviations, in particular, due to its prediction for |U{sub e3}|. There can be resonant leptogenesis with quasidegenerate heavy and light neutrinos, which would imply sizable cancellations in neutrinoless double beta decay. The decays {mu}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are typically observable unless the SUSY masses approach the TeV scale. In the second scenario leptogenesis is impossible. It is, however, in perfect agreement with all oscillation data. The prediction for {mu}{yields}e{gamma} is in general too large, unless the SUSY masses are in the range of several TeV. In this case {tau}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are unobservable.

  17. NREL: Energy Analysis - Trieu Mai

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Trieu Mai is a member of the Energy Forecasting and Modeling Group in the Strategic Energy ... Electric sector capacity expansion modeling High penetration renewable scenario analysis ...

  18. Infrastructure Development and Financial Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Infrastructure Development and Financial Analysis quantifies the total costs of scenarios for developing the hydrogen infrastructure, including production, delivery, and utilization. By combining...

  19. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; howeverwith the exception of low temperature heatthere is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supplyare available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  20. Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.; Webster, K.

    2009-10-28

    Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.

  1. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  2. National Geo-Database for Biofuel Simulations and Regional Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, David H.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of this project undertaken by GLBRC (Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center) Area 4 (Sustainability) modelers is to develop a national capability to model feedstock supply, ethanol production, and biogeochemical impacts of cellulosic biofuels. The results of this project contribute to sustainability goals of the GLBRC; i.e. to contribute to developing a sustainable bioenergy economy: one that is profitable to farmers and refiners, acceptable to society, and environmentally sound. A sustainable bioenergy economy will also contribute, in a fundamental way, to meeting national objectives on energy security and climate mitigation. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit national geodatabase for conducting biofuel simulation studies; (2) model biomass productivity and associated environmental impacts of annual cellulosic feedstocks; (3) simulate production of perennial biomass feedstocks grown on marginal lands; and (4) locate possible sites for the establishment of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. To address the first objective, we developed SENGBEM (Spatially Explicit National Geodatabase for Biofuel and Environmental Modeling), a 60-m resolution geodatabase of the conterminous USA containing data on: (1) climate, (2) soils, (3) topography, (4) hydrography, (5) land cover/ land use (LCLU), and (6) ancillary data (e.g., road networks, federal and state lands, national and state parks, etc.). A unique feature of SENGBEM is its 2008-2010 crop rotation data, a crucially important component for simulating productivity and biogeochemical cycles as well as land-use changes associated with biofuel cropping. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate biomass productivity and environmental impacts of annual and perennial cellulosic feedstocks across much of the USA on both croplands and marginal lands. We used data from LTER and eddy-covariance experiments within the study region to test the performance of EPIC and, when necessary, improve its parameterization. We investigated three scenarios. In the first, we simulated a historical (current) baseline scenario composed mainly of corn-, soybean-, and wheat-based rotations as grown existing croplands east of the Rocky Mountains in 30 states. In the second scenario, we simulated a modified baseline in which we harvested corn and wheat residues to supply feedstocks to potential cellulosic ethanol biorefineries distributed within the study area. In the third scenario, we simulated the productivity of perennial cropping systems such as switchgrass or perennial mixtures grown on either marginal or Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands. In all cases we evaluated the environmental impacts (e.g., soil carbon changes, soil erosion, nitrate leaching, etc.) associated with the practices. In summary, we have reported on the development of a spatially explicit national geodatabase to conduct biofuel simulation studies and provided initial simulation results on the potential of annual and perennial cropping systems to serve as feedstocks for the production of cellulosic ethanol. To accomplish this, we have employed sophisticated spatial analysis methods in combination with the process-based biogeochemical model EPIC. This work provided the opportunity to test the hypothesis that marginal lands can serve as sources of cellulosic feedstocks and thus contribute to avoid potential conflicts between bioenergy and food production systems. This work, we believe, opens the door for further analysis on the characteristics of cellulosic feedstocks as major contributors to the development of a sustainable bioenergy economy.

  3. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meintz, A.; Markel, T.; Burton, E.; Wang, L.; Gonder, J.; Brooker, A.

    2015-06-05

    Analysis has been performed on the Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC) warehouse of collected GPS second-by-second driving profile data of vehicles in the Atlanta, Chicago, Fresno, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Francisco Consolidated Statistical Areas (CSAs) to understand in-motion wireless power transfer introduction scenarios. In this work it has been shown that electrification of 1% of road miles could reduce fuel use by 25% for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) in these CSAs. This analysis of strategically located infrastructure offers a promising approach to reduced fuel consumption; however, even the most promising 1% of road miles determined by these seven analysis scenarios still represent an impressive 2,700 miles of roadway to electrify. Therefore to mitigate the infrastructure capital costs, integration of the grid-tied power electronics in the Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system at the DC-link to photovoltaic and/or battery storage is suggested. The integration of these resources would allow for the hardware to provide additional revenue through grid services at times of low traffic volumes and conversely at time of high traffic volumes these resources could reduce the peak demand that the WPT system would otherwise add to the grid.

  4. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scholak, Torsten Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  5. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E.

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  6. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  7. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  8. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  9. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate High-Yield Scenario (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  10. Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-05-01

    Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal-consumption trade-off in the context of current national policies and regulations that favor decreasing withdrawals (increasing consumptive use), and the role of water saving technologies. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S.

  11. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  12. The role of vector fields in modified gravity scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Koyama, Kazuya; Khosravi, Nima E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2013-11-01

    Gravitational vector degrees of freedom typically arise in many examples of modified gravity models. We start to systematically explore their role in these scenarios, studying the effects of coupling gravitational vector and scalar degrees of freedom. We focus on set-ups that enjoy a Galilean symmetry in the scalar sector and an Abelian gauge symmetry in the vector sector. These symmetries, together with the requirement that the equations of motion contain at most two space-time derivatives, only allow for a small number of operators in the Lagrangian for the gravitational fields. We investigate the role of gravitational vector fields for two broad classes of phenomena that characterize modified gravity scenarios. The first is self-acceleration: we analyze in general terms the behavior of vector fluctuations around self-accelerating solutions, and show that vanishing kinetic terms of vector fluctuations lead to instabilities on cosmological backgrounds. The second phenomenon is the screening of long range fifth forces by means of Vainshtein mechanism. We show that if gravitational vector fields are appropriately coupled to a spherically symmetric source, they can play an important role for defining the features of the background solution and the scale of the Vainshtein radius. Our general results can be applied to any concrete model of modified gravity, whose low-energy vector and scalar degrees of freedom satisfy the symmetry requirements that we impose.

  13. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domestic product between 1998 and 2020 with energy use risingby 70 percent to 130 percent (Figure 1). Continual progress in improvingthe efficiency and structure of industry is crucial to maintainingeconomic growth with minimal growth in energy use. In some industries,output may grow with no rise in energy use at all. Swelling ranks ofmotor vehicles will deepen China's dependence on imported oil up to 320Mt per year by 2020 an amount that global markets can easily supply. Tomoderate growth in transportation energy use, the strong promotion ofconvenient public transport will be needed in addition to tighter fuelefficiency standards and advanced vehicles. Fuel switching, efficientappliances, better heating and cooling systems, and improved buildingenvelope technologies will be needed in the fast-growing buildingssector. By 2020, China will still b

  14. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell

  15. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

  16. I think that I shall never see {hor_ellipsis} a lovely forestry policy: Land use programs for conservation of forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.F.; Richards, K.R.

    1994-01-01

    Forestry programs are frequently invoked as having potential for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies have attempted to quantify the potential impact of forest programs on carbon uptake and the potential costs of such programs. In this paper, we will attempt instead to focus on the institutional issues of the implementation of forestry programs for carbon sequestration. In particular, we explore the challenges for implementing forest programs that are: of increasing technological complexity; and in settings that depart significantly from the idealized conditions of economic models. We start in Section 1 by examining a suite of instruments that are commonly employed to implement a given policy. Section 2 examines a relatively simple case -- a tree-planting program in the US -- and demonstrates that there are significant difficulties involved in implementing a carbon sequestration program, even in a well-developed market economy. Section 3 focuses on other technologies in the US and why the choice of policy instruments and program design is more difficult than for the simple tree-planting case. Section 4 considers implementation of forestry policies in other countries where the economies may bear less resemblance to the ideal market economy than the US. In those settings, the choice of policy instruments may be very sensitive to non-market considerations that are often missed in conventional policy and cost analysis.

  17. Analysis of NaOH releases for Hanford tank farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Caustic Spray Leak. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  18. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  19. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial scale plant. It is important to understand that the purpose of this study was to establish baseline scenarios based on basic device data that was provided to use by the manufacturer for illustrative purposes only.

  20. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure. With uncertain data and limited common units, the aggregation of results is not inherently obvious. Candidate methodologies discussed include statistical, analytical, and expert-based numerical approaches. Most statistical methods require large amounts of data with a random distribution of values for validity. Analytical methods predominate wherein structured data or patterns are evident and randomness is low. The analytical hierarchy process is shown to satisfy all requirements and provide a detailed method for measurement that depends on expert judgment by decision makers.

  1. NREL: Energy Analysis - Robert M. Margolis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    models Economic and market analysis of renewable energy technologies R&D planning and evaluation Long-term scenario development Primary research interests Science and ...

  2. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  3. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin, Eduardo; Tomas, Rogelio; Bambade, Philip; Kuroda, Shigeru; Okugi, Toshiyuki; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; Urakawa, Junji; Parker, Brett; Seryi, Andrei; White, Glen; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  4. Scenarios For The ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin E.; Parker B.; Tomas R. Bambade Kuroda S. Okugi T. Tauchi T. Terunuma N. Urakawa J. Seryi A. White G. Woodley M.

    2010-05-23

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  5. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  6. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  7. ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

    2000-11-01

    During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

  8. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  9. Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keyser, David; Warner, Ethan; Curley, Christina

    2015-04-23

    Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas that is released from the natural gas supply chain into the atmosphere as a result of fugitive emissions1 and venting2 . We assess five potential CH4 reduction scenarios from transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) using published literature on the costs and the estimated quantity of CH4 reduced. We utilize cost and methane inventory data from ICF (2014) and Warner et al. (forthcoming) as well as data from Barrett and McCulloch (2014) and the American Gas Association (AGA) (2013) to estimate that the implementation of these measures could support approximately 85,000 jobs annually from 2015 to 2019 and reduce CH4 emissions from natural gas TS&D by over 40%. Based on standard input/output analysis methodology, measures are estimated to support over $8 billion in GDP annually over the same time period and allow producers to recover approximately $912 million annually in captured gas.

  10. Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This study assessed five potential methane reduction scenarios from natural gas transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) infrastructure using published literature on the costs and the estimated quantity of methane reduced. The results show that implementation of these five measures could support approximately 85,000 jobs annually from 2015 to 2019 and reduce CH4 emissions from natural gas TS&D by over 40%. Based on standard input/output analysis methodology, measures are estimated to support over $8 billion in GDP annually over the same time period and allow producers to recover approximately $912 million annually in captured gas. Mitigation of methane emission reductions through repair, replacement and new technologies are found to support economic development and jobs. The study also found that a portfolio approach to infrastructure modernization may be appropriate to meaningfully improve safety, maintain or create high levels of employment, and significant losses of methane from across TS&D segments of natural gas systems.

  11. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, Lori; Chapman, Caroline; Logan, Jeff; Sumner, Jenny; Short, Walter

    2010-05-01

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  12. Hazards and scenarios examined for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hazards and scenarios examined for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste Rob P. Rechard a,n , Geoff A. Freeze b , Frank V. Perry c a Nuclear Waste Disposal Research & Analysis, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque 87185-0747, NM, USA b Applied Systems Analysis & Research, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque 87185-0747, NM, USA c Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National

  13. NREL: Energy Analysis: Geospatial Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy infrastructure, demographics and land ownership, and the earth's physical geography (topography, land use, rivers). NREL's geographic information system models enable...

  14. Land Use Planning Handbook | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Handbook H-1601-1 released by the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM). "This Handbook provides supplemental guidance to the Bureau of Land...

  15. Resource Assessment and Land Use Change

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Light Duty Vehicle Workshop in Washington, D.C. on July 26, 2010.

  16. EIA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Land use

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    ... Other greenhouse gases, such as methane released from wood that is burned ... usually is assessed by considering all the upstream and downstream emissions of greenhouse gases. ...

  17. Land use and value after reclamation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelps, W.R.

    1998-12-31

    This presentation discusses the process of analyzing the size and condition of producing land parcels concerning management and income relationships, tract location, and soil and water conservation structures. It reviews production schemes for crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa hay, and warm season grasses, as well as use for recreation. Management of tenants and leases is discussed concerning evaluation of crop share leases, cash renting, custom farming, and tenant selection. Factors involving subsidence due to underground mining by longwall or room and pillar extraction are discussed. Issues related to planning for and management of taxes, long-term improvements, and other land costs are presented.

  18. Land Use Assessment Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Evaluate public and private sector capacity (e.g., institutional, governance, financial) to support initiatives Assess biophysical and economic potential for these...

  19. Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    early transition analysis? 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? ... S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? * ...

  20. Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Brettin, Thomas S.; Cottingham, Robert W.; Griffith, Shelton D.; Quest, Daniel J.

    2015-09-08

    A system and method of integrating diverse sources of data and data streams is presented. The method can include selecting a scenario based on a topic, creating a multi-relational directed graph based on the scenario, identifying and converting resources in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the resources, identifying data feeds in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the data feeds, identifying analytical routines in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph using the analytical routines and identifying data outputs in accordance with the scenario and defining queries to produce the data outputs from the multi-directed graph.

  1. Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-10-01

    Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.

  2. Risk-Dominant Scenarios from Several SRS Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-03-15

    This report and associated spreadsheets describe the SRS safety analysis provided for four selected transuranic storage and stabilization facilities. For each of the four sets of analysis, the bounding events in each frequency category are identified, key inputs and assumptions are stated, and final doses tabulated.

  3. Investment in different sized SMRs: Economic evaluation of stochastic scenarios by INCAS code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barenghi, S.; Boarin, S.; Ricotti, M. E.

    2012-07-01

    Small Modular LWR concepts are being developed and proposed to investors worldwide. They capitalize on operating track record of GEN II LWR, while introducing innovative design enhancements allowed by smaller size and additional benefits from the higher degree of modularization and from deployment of multiple units on the same site. (i.e. 'Economy of Multiple' paradigm) Nevertheless Small Modular Reactors pay for a dis-economy of scale that represents a relevant penalty on a capital intensive investment. Investors in the nuclear power generation industry face a very high financial risk, due to high capital commitment and exceptionally long pay-back time. Investment risk arise from uncertainty that affects scenario conditions over such a long time horizon. Risk aversion is increased by current adverse conditions of financial markets and general economic downturn, as is the case nowadays. This work investigates both the investment profitability and risk of alternative investments in a single Large Reactor or in multiple SMR of different sizes drawing information from project's Internal Rate of Return stochastic distribution. multiple SMR deployment on a single site with total power installed, equivalent to a single LR. Uncertain scenario conditions and stochastic input assumptions are included in the analysis, representing investment uncertainty and risk. Results show that, despite the combination of much larger number of stochastic variables in SMR fleets, uncertainty of project profitability is not increased, as compared to LR: SMR have features able to smooth IRR variance and control investment risk. Despite dis-economy of scale, SMR represent a limited capital commitment and a scalable investment option that meet investors' interest, even in developed and mature markets, that are traditional marketplace for LR. (authors)

  4. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Investments in the Long Term? | Department of Energy Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Breakout Session 3C-Fostering Technology Adoption III: International Market Opportunities in Bioenergy Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Artur Milanez, Manager of Biofuels

  5. Composite analysis for low-level waste disposal in the 200 area plateau of the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kincaid, C.T.; Bergeron, M.P.; Cole, C.R.

    1998-03-01

    This report presents the first iteration of the Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site (Composite Analysis) prepared in response to the U.S. Department of Energy Implementation Plan for the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board Recommendation 94-2. The Composite Analysis is a companion document to published analyses of four active or planned low-level waste disposal actions: the solid waste burial grounds in the 200 West Area, the solid waste burial grounds in the 200 East Area, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility, and the disposal facilities for immobilized low-activity waste. A single Composite Analysis was prepared for the Hanford Site considering only sources on the 200 Area Plateau. The performance objectives prescribed in U.S. Department of Energy guidance for the Composite Analysis were 100 mrem in a year and examination of a lower dose (30 mrem in a year) to ensure the {open_quotes}as low as reasonably achievable{close_quotes} concept is followed. The 100 mrem in a year limit was the maximum allowable all-pathways dose for 1000 years following Hanford Site closure, which is assumed to occur in 2050. These performance objectives apply to an accessible environment defined as the area between a buffer zone surrounding an exclusive waste management area on the 200 Area Plateau, and the Columbia River. Estimating doses to hypothetical future members of the public for the Composite Analysis was a multistep process involving the estimation or simulation of inventories; waste release to the environment; migration through the vadose zone, groundwater, and atmospheric pathways; and exposure and dose. Doses were estimated for scenarios based on agriculture, residential, industrial, and recreational land use. The radionuclides included in the vadose zone and groundwater pathway analyses of future releases were carbon-14, chlorine-36, selenium-79, technetium-99, iodine-129, and uranium isotopes.

  6. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-03-17

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments.

  7. Scenarios of transition to chaos competition in low-temperature plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dimitriu, D. G.

    2013-11-13

    Dynamics of a fireball created in front of a positively biased electrode immersed into low-temperature plasma was experimentally investigated. By analyzing the time series of the oscillations of the current collected by the electrode, several successive scenarios of transitions to chaos were identified: by intermittencies, by cascade of sub-harmonic bifurcations and by quasi-periodicity (Ruelle-Takens scenario)

  8. Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

    2007-01-01

    On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some components heated up beyond their service temperatures, the staff determined that there would be no significant release as a result of the fire for the NAC LWT and similar casks.

  9. Contact Interface Verification for DYNA3D Scenario 2: Multi-Surface Contact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D

    2006-05-10

    A suite of test problems has been developed to examine contact behavior within the nonlinear, three-dimensional, explicit finite element analysis (FEA) code DYNA3D (Lin, 2005). The test problems use multiple interfaces and a combination of enforcement methods to assess the basic functionality of the contact algorithms. The results from the DYNA3D analyses are compared to closed form solutions to verify the contact behavior. This work was performed as part of the Verification and Validation efforts of LLNL W Program within the NNSA's Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program. DYNA3D models the transient dynamic response of solids and structures including the interactions between disjoint bodies (parts). A wide variety of contact surfaces are available to represent the diverse interactions possible during an analysis, including relative motion (sliding), separation and gap closure (voids), and fixed relative position (tied). The problem geometry may be defined using a combination of element formulations, including one-dimensional beam and truss elements, two-dimensional shell elements, and three-dimensional solid elements. Consequently, it is necessary to consider various element interactions during contact. This report and associated test problems examine the scenario where multiple bodies interact with each other via multiple interfaces. The test problems focus on whether any ordering issues exist in the contact logic by using a combination of interface types, contact enforcement options (i.e., penalty, Lagrange, and kinematic), and element interactions within each problem. The influence of rigid materials on interface behavior is also examined. The companion report (McMichael, 2006) and associated test problems address the basic contact scenario where one contact surface exists between two disjoint bodies. The test problems are analyzed using version 5.2 (compiled on 12/22/2005) of DYNA3D. The analytical results are used to form baseline solutions for subsequent regression testing. In section 2, the test problems are presented, and the static solution is developed for two idealized systems. Section 3 describes the finite element representation of the generic problem, including the interface combinations considered. The verification criteria and expected results are presented next in section 4. Section 5 discusses the numerical results obtained from each test problem. Finally, section 6 summarizes the observed interface behavior.

  10. Contact Interface Verification for DYNA3D Scenario 1: Basic Contact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D

    2006-05-10

    A suite of test problems has been developed to examine contact behavior within the nonlinear, three-dimensional, explicit finite element analysis (FEA) code DYNA3D (Lin, 2005). The test problems address the basic functionality of the contact algorithms, including the behavior of various kinematic, penalty, and Lagrangian enforcement formulations. The results from the DYNA3D analyses are compared to closed form solutions to verify the contact behavior. This work was performed as part of the Verification and Validation efforts of LLNL W Program within the NNSA's Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program. DYNA3D models the transient dynamic response of solids and structures including the interactions between disjoint bodies (parts). A wide variety of contact surfaces are available to represent the diverse interactions possible during an analysis, including relative motion (sliding), separation and gap closure (voids), and fixed relative position (tied). The problem geometry may be defined using a combination of element formulations, including one-dimensional beam and truss elements, two-dimensional shell elements, and three-dimensional solid elements. Consequently, it is necessary to consider various element interactions for each contact algorithm being verified. Most of the contact algorithms currently available in DYNA3D are examined; the exceptions are the Type 4--Single Surface Contact and Type 11--SAND algorithms. It is likely that these algorithms will be removed since their functionality is embodied in other, more robust, contact algorithms. The automatic contact algorithm is evaluated using the Type 12 interface. Two other variations of automatic contact, Type 13 and Type 14, offer additional means to adapt the interface domain, but share the same search and restoration algorithms as Type 12. The contact algorithms are summarized in Table 1. This report and associated test problems examine the scenario where one contact surface exists between two disjoint bodies. These test problems focus on whether a particular contact algorithm properly represents the interactions along the interface. A companion report (McMichael, 2006) and test problems address the multi-contact scenario in which multiple bodies interact with each other via multiple interfaces. The multi-contact test problems examine whether any ordering issues exist in the contact logic. The test problems are analyzed using version 5.2 (compiled on 12/22/2005) of DYNA3D. The analytical results are used to form baseline solutions for subsequent regression testing.

  11. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  12. Implications of Model Configurations on Capacity Planning Decisions: Scenario Case Studies of the Western Interconnection and Colorado Region using the Resource Planning Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations—particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling—to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  13. Webinar May 12: Overview of Station Analysis Tools Developed...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)-developed by Argonne National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, respectively, to address key ...

  14. 2014 WIND POWER PROGRAM PEER REVIEW-ANALYSIS & MODELING

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis and Modeling March 24-27, 2014 Wind Energy Technologies PR-5000-62152 2 Contents ... Scenario Modeling and Model Improvement: Wind Deployment Barrier Reduction-Suzanne ...

  15. K West integrated water treatment system subproject safety analysis document

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SEMMENS, L.S.

    1999-02-24

    This Accident Analysis evaluates unmitigated accident scenarios, and identifies Safety Significant and Safety Class structures, systems, and components for the K West Integrated Water Treatment System.

  16. Analysis on Current Status of the Gas Filling Station Networks...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name: Analysis on Current Status of the Gas Filling Station Networks Website Focus Area: Natural Gas Topics: Potentials & Scenarios Website: www.gashighway.net...

  17. Scenario Development and Analysis of Hydrogen as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Medium (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steward, D. M.

    2009-06-10

    The conclusions from this report are: (1) hydrogen has several important advantages over competing technologies, including - very high storage energy density (170 kWh/m{sup 3} vs. 2.4 for CAES and 0.7 for pumped hydro) which allows for potential economic viability of above-ground storage and relatively low environmental impact in comparison with other technologies; and (2) the major disadvantage of hydrogen energy storage is cost but research and deployment of electrolyzers and fuel cells may reduce cost significantly.

  18. Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Recent research on the projection of precipitation extremes has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Utilization of statistical extreme value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation extremes at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation extremes, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation extremes has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation extremes processes.

  19. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  20. Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steward, D. M.

    2010-05-01

    Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010

  1. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  2. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Book) | SciTech Connect Book: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change × You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of

  3. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  4. Bremsstrahlung and gamma ray lines in 3 scenarios of dark matter annihilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Giacchino, Federica; Tytgat, Michel H.G.; Lopez-Honorez, Laura E-mail: llopezho@vub.ac.be

    2014-08-01

    Gamma ray spectral features are of interest for indirect searches of dark matter (DM). Following Barger et al. we consider 3 simple scenarios of DM that annihilates into Standard Model (SM) fermion pairs. Scenario 1 is a Majorana DM candidate coupled to a charged scalar, scenario 2 is a Majorana DM coupled to a charged gauge boson and scenario 3 is a real scalar DM coupled a charged vector-like fermion. As shown by Barger et al., these 3 scenarios share precisely the same internal Bremsstrahlung spectral signature into gamma rays. Their phenomenology is however distinct. In particular for annihilation into light SM fermions, in the chiral limit, the 2-body annihilation cross section is p-wave suppressed for the Majorana candidates while it is d-wave suppressed for the real scalar. In the present work we study the annihilation into 2 gammas, showing that these three scenarios have distinct, and so potentially distinguishable, spectral signatures into gamma rays. In the case of the real scalar candidate we provide a new calculation of the amplitude for annihilation into 2 gammas.

  5. A POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONARY SCENARIO OF HIGHLY MAGNETIZED SUPER-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS: PROGENITORS OF PECULIAR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, Upasana; Mukhopadhyay, Banibrata; Rao, A. R. E-mail: bm@physics.iisc.ernet.in

    2013-04-10

    Several recently discovered peculiar Type Ia supernovae seem to demand an altogether new formation theory that might help explain the puzzling dissimilarities between them and the standard Type Ia supernovae. The most striking aspect of the observational analysis is the necessity of invoking super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses {approx}2.1-2.8 M{sub Sun }, M{sub Sun} being the mass of Sun, as their most probable progenitors. Strongly magnetized white dwarfs having super-Chandrasekhar masses have already been established as potential candidates for the progenitors of peculiar Type Ia supernovae. Owing to the Landau quantization of the underlying electron degenerate gas, theoretical results yielded the observationally inferred mass range. Here, we sketch a possible evolutionary scenario by which super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs could be formed by accretion on to a commonly observed magnetized white dwarf, invoking the phenomenon of flux freezing. This opens multiple possible evolution scenarios ending in supernova explosions of super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses within the range stated above. We point out that our proposal has observational support, such as the recent discovery of a large number of magnetized white dwarfs by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

  6. Analysis of Hydrogen and Competing Technologies for Utility-Scale Energy Storage (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steward, D.

    2010-02-11

    Presentation about the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's analysis of hydrogen energy storage scenarios, including analysis framework, levelized cost comparison of hydrogen and competing technologies, analysis results, and conclusions drawn from the analysis.

  7. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

  8. THE HYBRID CONe WD + He STAR SCENARIO FOR THE PROGENITORS OF TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, B.; Meng, X.; Liu, D.-D.; Han, Z.; Liu, Z.-W.

    2014-10-20

    Hybrid CONe white dwarfs (WDs) have been suggested to be possible progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). In this Letter, we systematically studied the hybrid CONe WD + He star scenario for the progenitors of SNe Ia, in which a hybrid CONe WD increases its mass to the Chandrasekhar mass limit by accreting He-rich material from a non-degenerate He star. We obtained the SN Ia birthrates and delay times for this scenario using to a series of detailed binary population synthesis simulations. The SN Ia birthrates for this scenario are ∼0.033-0.539 × 10{sup –3} yr{sup –1}, which roughly accounts for 1%-18% of all SNe Ia. The estimated delay times are ∼28 Myr-178 Myr, which makes these the youngest SNe Ia predicted by any progenitor model so far. We suggest that SNe Ia from this scenario may provide an alternative explanation for type Iax SNe. We also presented some properties of the donors at the point when the WDs reach the Chandrasekhar mass. These properties may be a good starting point for investigating the surviving companions of SNe Ia and for constraining the progenitor scenario studied in this work.

  9. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of peoples annual incomes.

  10. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, Steve; Singh, Margaret; Patterson, Phil; Ward, Jake; Wood, Frances; Kydes, Niko; Holte, John; Moore, Jim; Miller, Grant; Das, Sujit; Greene, David

    2009-07-22

    This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

  11. Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.

  12. Neutronic Study of Slightly Modified Water Reactors and Application to Transition Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chambon, Richard; Guillemin, Perrine; Nuttin, Alexis; Bidaud, A.

    2007-07-01

    In this paper we have studied slightly modified water reactors and their applications to transition scenarios. The PWR and CANDU reactors have been considered. New fuels based on Thorium have been tested: Thorium/Plutonium and Thorium/Uranium- 233, with different fissile isotope contents. Changes in the geometry of the assemblies were also explored to modify the moderation ratio, and consequently the neutron flux spectrum. A core equivalent assembly methodology was introduced as an exploratory approach and to reduce the computation time. Several basic safety analyses were also performed. We have finally developed a new scenario code, named OSCAR (Optimized Scenario Code for Advanced Reactors), to study the efficiency of these modified reactors in transition to Gen IV reactors or in symbiotic fleet. (authors)

  13. Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  14. Fine precipitation scenarios of AlZnMg(Cu) alloys revealed by advanced atomic-resolution electron microscopy study Part II: Fine precipitation scenarios in AlZnMg(Cu) alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, J.Z.; Chen, J.H.; Liu, Z.R.; Wu, C.L.

    2015-01-15

    Although they are among the most important precipitation-hardened materials for industry applications, the high-strength AlZnMg(Cu) alloys have thus far not yet been understood adequately about their underlying precipitation scenarios in relation with the properties. This is partly due to the fact that the structures of a number of different precipitates involved in the alloys are unknown, and partly due to the complexity that the precipitation behaviors of the alloys may be closely related to the alloy's composition. In Part I of the present study, we have determined all the unknown precipitate structures in the alloys. Here in Part II, using atomic-resolution electron microscopy in association with the first principles energy calculations, we further studied and correlated the phase/structure transformation/evolution among these hardening precipitates in relation with the alloy's composition. It is shown that there are actually two coexisting classes of hardening precipitates in these alloys: the first class includes the η′-precipitates and their early-stage Guinier–Preston (GP-η′) zones; the second class includes the precursors of the equilibrium η-phase (referred to η{sub p}, or η-precursor) and their early-stage Guinier–Preston (GP-η{sub p}) zones. The two coexisting classes of precipitates correspond to two precipitation scenarios. - Highlights: • We determine and verify all the key precipitate structures in AlMgZn(Cu) alloys. • We employ aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). • We use aberration-corrected high-resolution TEM (HRTEM) for the investigations. • We obtain atomic-resolution images of the precipitates and model their structures. • We refine all precipitate structures with quantitative image simulation analysis. • The hardening precipitates in AlZnMg alloys shall be classified into two groups. • Two precipitation scenarios coexist in the alloys. • The precipitation behavior of such an alloy depends on the alloy's composition. • Very detailed phase/structure transformations among the precipitates are revealed.

  15. Geographically-Based Infrastructure Analysis for California

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Joan Ogden of the University of California at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C.

  16. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by NREL's Margo Melendez at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C.

  17. Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails. An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuiper, James A; Krummel, John R; Hlava, Kevin J; Moore, H Robert; Orr, Andrew B; Schlueter, Scott O; Sullivan, Robert G; Zvolanek, Emily A

    2014-03-25

    As has been noted in many reports and publications, acquiring new or expanded rights-of-way for transmission is a challenging process, because numerous land use and land ownership constraints must be overcome to develop pathways suitable for energy transmission infrastructure. In the eastern U.S., more than twenty federally protected national trails (some of which are thousands of miles long, and cross many states) pose a potential obstacle to the development of new or expanded electricity transmission capacity. However, the scope of this potential problem is not well-documented, and there is no baseline information available that could allow all stakeholders to study routing scenarios that could mitigate impacts on national trails. This report, Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the “footprint” of the current network of National Historic and Scenic Trails and the electricity transmission system in the 37 eastern contiguous states, Alaska, and Hawaii; assess the extent to which national trails are affected by electrical transmission; and investigate the extent to which national trails and other sensitive land use types may be affected in the near future by planned transmission lines. Pipelines are secondary to transmission lines for analysis, but are also within the analysis scope in connection with the overall directives of Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and because of the potential for electrical transmission lines being collocated with pipelines. Based on Platts electrical transmission line data, a total of 101 existing intersections with national trails on federal land were found, and 20 proposed intersections. Transmission lines and pipelines are proposed in Alaska; however there are no locations that intersect national trails. Source data did not indicate any planned transmission lines or pipelines in Hawaii. A map atlas provides more detailed mapping of the topics investigated in this study, and the accompanying GIS database provides the baseline information for further investigating locations of interest. In many cases the locations of proposed transmission lines are not accurately mapped (or a specific route may not yet be determined), and accordingly the specific crossing locations are speculative. However since both national trails and electrical transmission lines are long linear systems, the characteristics of the crossings reported in this study are expected to be similar to both observed characteristics of the existing infrastructure provided in this report, and of the new infrastructure if these proposed projects are built. More focused study of these siting challenges is expected to mitigate some of potential impacts by choosing routes that minimize or eliminate them. The current study primarily addresses a set of screening-level characterizations that provide insights into how the National Trail System may influence the siting of energy transport facilities in the states identified under Section 368(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. As such, it initializes gathering and beginning analysis of the primary environmental and energy data, and maps the contextual relationships between an important national environmental asset and how this asset intersects with energy planning activities. Thus the current study sets the stage for more in-depth analyses and data development activities that begin to solve key transmission siting constraints. Our recommendations for future work incorporate two major areas: (1) database development and analytics and (2) modeling and scenario analysis for energy planning. These recommendations provide a path forward to address key issues originally developed under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 that are now being carried forward under the President’s Climate Action Plan.

  18. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  19. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore wind deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

  20. Deep Burn Fuel Cycle Integration: Evaluation of Two-Tier Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Bays; H. Zhang; M. Pope

    2009-05-01

    The use of a deep burn strategy using VHTRs (or DB-MHR), as a means of burning transuranics produced by LWRs, was compared to performing this task with LWR MOX. The spent DB-MHR fuel was recycled for ultimate final recycle in fast reactors (ARRs). This report summarizes the preliminary findings of the support ratio (in terms of MWth installed) between LWRs, DB-MHRs and ARRs in an equilibrium two-tier fuel cycle scenario. Values from literature were used to represent the LWR and DB-MHR isotopic compositions. A reactor physics simulation of the ARR was analyzed to determine the effect that the DB-MHR spent fuel cooling time on the ARR transuranic consumption rate. These results suggest that the cooling time has some but not a significant impact on the ARRs conversion ratio and transuranic consumption rate. This is attributed to fissile worth being derived from non-fissile or threshold-fissioning isotopes in the ARRs fast spectrum. The fraction of installed thermal capacity of each reactor in the DB-MHR 2-tier fuel cycle was compared with that of an equivalent MOX 2-tier fuel cycle, assuming fuel supply and demand are in equilibrium. The use of DB-MHRs in the 1st-tier allows for a 10% increase in the fraction of fleet installed capacity of UO2-fueled LWRs compared to using a MOX 1st-tier. Also, it was found that because the DB-MHR derives more power per unit mass of transuranics charged to the fresh fuel, the front-end reprocessing demand is less than MOX. Therefore, more fleet installed capacity of DB-MHR would be required to support a given fleet of UO2 LWRs than would be required of MOX plants. However, the transuranic deep burn achieved by DB-MHRs reduces the number of fast reactors in the 2nd-tier to support the DB-MHRs back-end transuranic output than if MOX plants were used. Further analysis of the relative costs of these various types of reactors is required before a comparative study of these options could be considered complete.

  1. PhotoVoltaic distributed generation for Lanai power grid real-time simulation and control integration scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robinett, Rush D., III; Kukolich, Keith; Wilson, David Gerald; Schenkman, Benjamin L.

    2010-06-01

    This paper discusses the modeling, analysis, and testing in a real-time simulation environment of the Lanai power grid system for the integration and control of PhotoVoltaic (PV) distributed generation. The Lanai Island in Hawaii is part of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) to transition to 30% renewable green energy penetration by 2030. In Lanai the primary loads come from two Castle and Cook Resorts, in addition to residential needs. The total peak load profile is 12470 V, 5.5 MW. Currently there are several diesel generators that meet these loading requirements. As part of the HCEI, Lanai has initially installed 1.2 MW of PV generation. The goal of this study has been to evaluate the impact of the PV with respect to the conventional carbon-based diesel generation in real time simulation. For intermittent PV distributed generation, the overall stability and transient responses are investigated. A simple Lanai 'like' model has been developed in the Matlab/Simulink environment (see Fig. 1) and to accommodate real-time simulation of the hybrid power grid system the Opal-RT Technologies RT-Lab environment is used. The diesel generators have been modelled using the SimPowerSystems toolbox swing equations and a custom Simulink module has been developed for the High level PV generation. All of the loads have been characterized primarily as distribution lines with series resistive load banks with one VAR load bank. Three-phase faults are implemented for each bus. Both conventional and advanced control architectures will be used to evaluate the integration of the PV onto the current power grid system. The baseline numerical results include the stable performance of the power grid during varying cloud cover (PV generation ramping up/down) scenarios. The importance of assessing the real-time scenario is included.

  2. Analysis | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis Analysis The Bioenergy Technologies Office uses a wide range of analytical tools, data, and methodologies to support decision making, guide research, and demonstrate progress toward goals. The wide variety of available biomass feedstocks, conversion technologies, and integration strategies offer a broad range of feasible biofuels scenarios, so the Office focuses its analytical activities on the biofuels research and development (R&D) pathways that offer the best potential for

  3. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, Trieu; Barrows, Clayton; Lopez, Anthony; Hale, Elaine; Dyson, Mark; Eurek, Kelly

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  4. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devicesmore » with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35MW at a toroidal field of 2.65T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65T with 60MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30MW neutral beam injection and 20MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (Tped ~ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33MW NB, 20MW EC, and 20MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (~3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ~ 20MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.« less

  5. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer A. Meintz, T. Markel, E. Burton, L. Wang, J. Gonder, A. Brooker, and A. Konan Work sponsored by United States Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicles Technologies Office, Vehicle Systems Program The information contained in this poster is subject to a government license. 2015 IEEE PELS Workshop on

  6. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios S. Tegen, D. Keyser, and F. Flores-Espino National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Miles and D. Zammit James Madison University D. Loomis Great Lakes Wind Network Technical Report NREL/TP-5000-61315 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is

  7. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barber, E.J.

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  8. PF coil voltage optimization for start-up scenarios in air core tokamaks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albanese, R.; Martone, R.; Ambrosino, G.; Pironti, A.

    1994-09-01

    The basic features of a procedure for the optimization of the plasma scenario in an air core tokamak are presented. The method takes into account the eddy currents in the passive conducting structures. The problem is reduced to the synthesis of time-varying magnetic field. The solution of this inverse electromagnetic problem is carried out by means of an optimization procedure based on the receding horizon approach. The paper includes an example of application to the ITER tokamak.

  9. Binary interactions as a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Dengkai; Han, Zhanwen; Li, Lifang E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

    2014-07-01

    Observations have revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs) that exhibit wide abundance variations and multiple sequences in the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We present a scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs. In this scenario, initial GCs are single-generation clusters, and our model predicts that the stars with anomalous abundances observed in GCs are merged stars and accretor stars produced by binary interactions—rapidly rotating stars at the moment of their formation—and that these stars are more massive than normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. We find that, due to their own evolution, these rapidly rotating stars have surface abundances, effective temperatures, and luminosities that are different from normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. This stellar population of binaries reproduces two important points of observational evidence of multiple stellar populations: a Na-O anticorrelation and multiple sequences in the HR diagram. This evidence suggests that binary interactions may be a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs.

  10. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H

    2010-10-08

    Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.

  11. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  12. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  13. A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Arnell, Nigel; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Kriegler, Elmar; Mathur, Ritu; O'Neill, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Zwickel, Timm

    2014-02-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.

  14. U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials. A GIS-Based Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, Anthony; Roberts, Billy; Heimiller, Donna; Blair, Nate; Porro, Gian

    2012-07-01

    This report presents the state-level results of a spatial analysis effort calculating energy technical potential, reported in square kilometers of available land, megawatts of capacity, and gigawatt-hours of generation, for six different renewable technologies. For this analysis, the system specific power density (or equivalent), efficiency (capacity factor), and land-use constraints were identified for each technology using independent research, published research, and professional contacts. This report also presents technical potential findings from previous reports.

  15. U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.; Roberts, B.; Heimiller, D.; Blair, N.; Porro, G.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents the state-level results of a spatial analysis effort calculating energy technical potential, reported in square kilometers of available land, megawatts of capacity, and gigawatt-hours of generation, for six different renewable technologies. For this analysis, the system specific power density (or equivalent), efficiency (capacity factor), and land-use constraints were identified for each technology using independent research, published research, and professional contacts. This report also presents technical potential findings from previous reports.

  16. MSSM Higgs Boson Searches at the LHC: Benchmark Scenarios after the Discovery of a Higgs-like Particle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Stål, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known mh-max scenario, and a modified scenario (mh-mod), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the MA-tan \\beta\\ plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h to \\gamma\\gamma\\ at large tan \\beta. We also suggest a \\tau-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the \\mu\\ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H to hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-MH scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  17. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  18. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

  19. Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berry, G; Daily III, W

    2004-06-03

    This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing 100 billion kilograms of hydrogen fuel annually (10.7 quads/yr) from a balanced blend of primary energy sources will likely require 16.2 quads of primary energy input, with an additional 0.96 Quads of electricity for hydrogen storage. These energy flows are comparable to or smaller than projected growth in individual primary energy sources over the 2005-2050 timeframe except perhaps the case of windpower.

  20. Analysis of LNG peakshaving-facility release-prevention systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Powers, T.B.; Schreiber, A.M.; Hobbs, J.M.; Daling, P.M.

    1982-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of release prevention systems for a reference LNG peakshaving facility. An overview assessment of the reference peakshaving facility, which preceeded this effort, identified 14 release scenarios which are typical of the potential hazards involved in the operation of LNG peakshaving facilities. These scenarios formed the basis for this more detailed study. Failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis were used to estimate the expected frequency of each release scenario for the reference peakshaving facility. In addition, the effectiveness of release prevention, release detection, and release control systems were evaluated.

  1. Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

    1993-12-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.

  2. The 'virtual density' principle of neutronics: Toward rapid computation of reactivity effects in practical core distortion scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed, M.; Smith, K.; Forget, B.

    2013-07-01

    Fast reactor core reactivities are sensitive to geometric distortions arising from three distinct phenomena: (1) irradiation swelling of fuel throughout core lifetime, (2) thermal expansion of fuel during transients, and (3) mechanical oscillations during seismic events. Performing comprehensive reactivity analysis of these distortions requires methods for rapidly computing a multitude of minute reactivity changes. Thus, we introduce the 'virtual density' principle of neutronics as a new perturbation technique to achieve this rapid computation. This new method obviates many of the most challenging aspects of conventional geometric perturbation theory. Essentially, this 'virtual density' principle converts geometric perturbations into equivalent material density perturbations (either isotropic or anisotropic), which are highly accurate and comparatively simple to evaluate. While traditional boundary perturbation theory employs surface integrals, the 'virtual density' principle employs equivalent volume integrals. We introduce and validate this method in three subsequent stages: (1) isotropic 'virtual density', (2) anisotropic 'virtual density' for whole cores, and (3) anisotropic 'virtual density' for interior zones within cores. We numerically demonstrate its accuracy for 2-D core flowering scenarios. (authors)

  3. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.

  4. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  5. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Toole, Gasper L.

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  6. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  7. Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted.

  8. The high-β{sub N} hybrid scenario for ITER and FNSF steady-state missions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turco, F.; Petty, C. C.; Luce, T. C.; Carlstrom, T. N.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Ferron, J. R.; Heidbrink, W.; Carpanese, F.; Holcomb, C. T.

    2015-05-15

    New experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated the steady-state potential of the hybrid scenario, with 1 MA of plasma current driven fully non-inductively and β{sub N} up to 3.7 sustained for ∼3 s (∼1.5 current diffusion time, τ{sub R}, in DIII-D), providing the basis for an attractive option for steady-state operation in ITER and FNSF. Excellent confinement is achieved (H{sub 98y2} ∼ 1.6) without performance limiting tearing modes. The hybrid regime overcomes the need for off-axis current drive efficiency, taking advantage of poloidal magnetic flux pumping that is believed to be the result of a saturated 3/2 tearing mode. This allows for efficient current drive close to the axis, without deleterious sawtooth instabilities. In these experiments, the edge surface loop voltage is driven down to zero for >1 τ{sub R} when the poloidal β is increased above 1.9 at a plasma current of 1.0 MA and the ECH power is increased to 3.2 MW. Stationary operation of hybrid plasmas with all on-axis current drive is sustained at pressures slightly above the ideal no-wall limit, while the calculated ideal with-wall MHD limit is β{sub N} ∼ 4–4.5. Off-axis Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) power has been used to broaden the pressure and current profiles in this scenario, seeking to take advantage of higher predicted kink stability limits and lower values of the tearing stability index Δ′, as calculated by the DCON and PEST3 codes. Results based on measured profiles predict ideal limits at β{sub N} > 4.5, 10% higher than the cases with on-axis NBI. A 0-D model, based on the present confinement, β{sub N} and shape values of the DIII-D hybrid scenario, shows that these plasmas are consistent with the ITER 9 MA, Q = 5 mission and the FNSF 6.7 MA scenario with Q = 3.5. With collisionality and edge safety factor values comparable to those envisioned for ITER and FNSF, the high-β{sub N} hybrid represents an attractive high performance option for the steady-state missions of these devices.

  9. Refined scenario of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis allowing for nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voronchev, Victor T.; Nakao, Yasuyuki; Nakamura, Makoto; Tsukida, Kazuki [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan); Division of Advanced Plasma Research, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Oaza-Obuchi-Aza-Omotedate, Rokkasho, Kamikita, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan)

    2012-11-12

    The standard scenario of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is generalized to take into account nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma. These reactions are naturally triggered in the BBN epoch by fast particles generated in various exoergic processes. It is found that, although such particles can appreciably enhance the rates of some individual reactions, their influence on the whole process of element production is not significant. The nonthermal corrections to element abundances are obtained to be 0.1% ({sup 3}H), -0.03% ({sup 7}Li), and 0.34 %-0.63% (CNO group).

  10. 3.55 keV line in minimal decaying dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arcadi, Giorgio; Covi, Laura; Dradi, Federico

    2015-07-20

    We investigate the possibility of reproducing the recently reported 3.55 keV line in some simple decaying dark matter scenarios. In all cases a keV scale decaying DM is coupled with a scalar field charged under SM gauge interactions and thus capable of pair production at the LHC. We will investigate how the demand of a DM lifetime compatible with the observed signal, combined with the requirement of the correct DM relic density through the freeze-in mechanism, impacts the prospects of observation at the LHC of the decays of the scalar field.

  11. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DOE/NNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop Washington, D.C October 25-26, 2011 LA-UR 11-06032 Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D Slide 2 Conservative or Beyond? While conservative assumptions may make an

  12. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  13. The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

    2007-08-01

    While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

  14. The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 in the wind braking scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tong, H.

    2014-04-01

    The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 is analyzed theoretically. An enhanced particle wind during the observational interval takes away additional rotational energy of the neutron star, which will result in a net spin-down of the magnetar, i.e., an anti-glitch. In the wind braking scenario of the anti-glitch, there are several predictions: (1) a radiative event will always accompany the anti-glitch, (2) there will be a decrease/variation of the braking index after the anti-glitch, and (3) the anti-glitch is just a period of enhanced spin-down. If there are enough timing observations, a period of enhanced spin-down is expected instead of an anti-glitch. Applications to previous timing events of SGR 1900+14 and PSR J1846–0258 are also included. It is shown that current timing events of 1E 2259+586, SGR 1900+14, and PSR J1846–0258 can be understood safely in the wind braking model. The enhanced spin-down and absence of an anti-glitch before the giant flare of SGR 1806–20 is consistent with the wind braking scenario.

  15. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sips, A. C. C.; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-15

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ∼10, while producing 500 MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ∼ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4 MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q{sub 95} ∼ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H{sub 98(y,2)} ∼ 1.0 only for β{sub N} = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (l{sub i}(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ∼ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35 MW at a toroidal field of 2.65 T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65 T with 60 MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30 MW neutral beam injection and 20 MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (T{sub ped} ∼ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33 MW NB, 20 MW EC, and 20 MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (∼3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ∼20 MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.

  16. Viability of the matter bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology from BICEP2 last data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu

    2014-08-01

    The CMB map provided by the Planck project constrains the value of the ratio of tensor-to-scalar perturbations, namely r, to be smaller than 0.11 (95 % CL). This bound rules out the simplest models of inflation. However, recent data from BICEP2 is in strong tension with this constrain, as it finds a value r=0.20{sup +0.07}{sub -0.05} with 0r= disfavored at 7.0 σ, which allows these simplest inflationary models to survive. The remarkable fact is that, even though the BICEP2 experiment was conceived to search for evidence of inflation, its experimental data matches correctly theoretical results coming from the matter bounce scenario (the alternative model to the inflationary paradigm). More precisely, most bouncing cosmologies do not pass Planck's constrains due to the smallness of the value of the tensor/scalar ratio r≤ 0.11, but with new BICEP2 data some of them fit well with experimental data. This is the case with the matter bounce scenario in the teleparallel version of Loop Quantum Cosmology.

  17. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35MW at a toroidal field of 2.65T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65T with 60MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30MW neutral beam injection and 20MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (Tped ~ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33MW NB, 20MW EC, and 20MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (~3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ~ 20MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.

  18. High-energy neutrino signals from the Sun in dark matter scenarios with internal bremsstrahlung

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibarra, Alejandro; Totzauer, Maximilian; Wild, Sebastian E-mail: maximilian.totzauer@mytum.de

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the prospects to observe a high energy neutrino signal from dark matter annihilations in the Sun in scenarios where the dark matter is a Majorana fermion that couples to a quark and a colored scalar via a Yukawa coupling. In this minimal scenario, the dark matter capture and annihilation in the Sun can be studied in a single framework. We find that, for small and moderate mass splitting between the dark matter and the colored scalar, the two-to-three annihilation q q-bar g plays a central role in the calculation of the number of captured dark matter particles. On the other hand, the two-to-three annihilation into q q-bar Z gives, despite its small branching fraction, the largest contribution to the neutrino flux at the Earth at the highest energies. We calculate the limits on the model parameters using IceCube observations of the Sun and we discuss their interplay with the requirement of equilibrium of captures and annihilations in the Sun and with the requirement of thermal dark matter production. We also compare the limits from IceCube to the limits from direct detection, antiproton measurements and collider searches.

  19. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  20. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

    2016-04-28

    Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

  1. Regional socioeconomic impacts of alternative energy scenarios for the Ohio River Basin Energy Study region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, S.I.; Graham, A.S.

    1980-10-01

    The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. It describes projected socioeconomic impacts of the ORBES energy futures, defined as scenarios, on the region. The region consists of all of Kentucky, most of West Virginia, and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The major impact areas considered are employment impacts of coal-fired power plants and of coal mining; population impacts of coal-fired power plants and coal mining; and public service impacts (e.g., water and sewer systems). The analyses of power plant impacts was aided by use of the ORBES Labor Impact Model (OLIM), which projects total county employment over time by scenario. For coal-mining employment impacts, a set of employment multipliers was developed using existing data to enable county- and regional-level employment changes. The mining employment data also are used in conjunction with other forecasts to look at general migration trends within the study region.

  2. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FUELS Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios A Study Sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy April 2013 Prepared by NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Golden, Colorado 80401-3305 managed by

  3. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R; Semazzi, Fred; Kumar, Vipin

    2010-01-01

    The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.

  4. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  5. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Phase 1, Task 3: Technical Requirements and Procedure for Evaluation of One Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sikes, Karen R; Hinds, Shaun; Hadley, Stanton W; McGill, Ralph N; Markel, Lawrence C; Ziegler, Richard E; Smith, David E; Smith, Richard L; Greene, David L; Brooks, Daniel L; Wiegman, Herman; Miller, Nicholas; Marano, Dr. Vincenzo

    2008-07-01

    In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over the next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.

  6. Transmission Planning Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2015-06-23

    Developed to solve specific problem: Assist transmission planning for regional transfers in interconnected power systems. This work was originated in a study for the U.S. Department of State, to recommend transmission reinforcements for the Central American regional system that interconnects 6 countries. Transmission planning analysis is currently performed by engineers with domainspecific and systemspecific knowledge without a unique methodology. The software codes of this disclosure assists engineers by defining systematic analysis procedures to help identifymore » weak points and make decisions on transmission planning of regional interconnected power systems. Transmission Planning Analysis Tool groups PSS/E results of multiple AC contingency analysis and voltage stability analysis and QV analysis of many scenarios of study and arrange them in a systematic way to aid power system planning engineers or transmission operators in effective decision]making process or in the off]line study environment.« less

  7. Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Boring, Ronald Laurids; Herberger, Sarah Elizabeth Marie; Mandelli, Diego; Smith, Curtis Lee

    2015-09-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

  8. Large-Scale Utilization of Biomass Energy and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-08-05

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to meet atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions - especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies - affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above 150$/tCO2, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO2 has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.

  9. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  10. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations and for the BaBar Superconducting Solenoid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W.W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J.G., II; /SLAC

    2005-12-13

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  11. Fusion power production in International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor baseline H-mode scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rafiq, T.; Kritz, A. H.; Kessel, C. E.; Pankin, A. Y.

    2015-04-15

    Self-consistent simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode DT scenarios, from ramp-up through flat-top, are carried out. Electron and ion temperatures, toroidal angular frequency, and currents are evolved, in simulations carried out using the predictive TRANSPort and integrated modeling code starting with initial profiles and equilibria obtained from tokamak simulation code studies. Studies are carried out examining the dependence and sensitivity of fusion power production on electron density, argon impurity concentration, choice of radio frequency heating, pedestal temperature without and with E × B flow shear effects included, and the degree of plasma rotation. The goal of these whole-device ITER simulations is to identify dependencies that might impact ITER fusion performance.

  12. Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.

    1995-09-01

    Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additional areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.

  13. SHORT GAMMA-RAY BURSTS IN THE ''TIME-REVERSAL'' SCENARIO

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ciolfi, Riccardo; Siegel, Daniel M. E-mail: daniel.siegel@aei.mpg.de

    2015-01-10

    Short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are among the most luminous explosions in the universe and their origin still remains uncertain. Observational evidence favors the association with binary neutron star or neutron star-black hole (NS-BH) binary mergers. Leading models relate SGRBs to a relativistic jet launched by the BH-torus system resulting from the merger. However, recent observations have revealed a large fraction of SGRB events accompanied by X-ray afterglows with durations ∼10{sup 2}-10{sup 5} s, suggesting continuous energy injection from a long-lived central engine, which is incompatible with the short (≲ 1 s) accretion timescale of a BH-torus system. The formation of a supramassive NS, resisting the collapse on much longer spin-down timescales, can explain these afterglow durations, but leaves serious doubts on whether a relativistic jet can be launched at the merger. Here we present a novel scenario accommodating both aspects, where the SGRB is produced after the collapse of a supramassive NS. Early differential rotation and subsequent spin-down emission generate an optically thick environment around the NS consisting of a photon-pair nebula and an outer shell of baryon-loaded ejecta. While the jet easily drills through this environment, spin-down radiation diffuses outward on much longer timescales and accumulates a delay that allows the SGRB to be observed before (part of) the long-lasting X-ray signal. By analyzing diffusion timescales for a wide range of physical parameters, we find delays that can generally reach ∼10{sup 5} s, compatible with observations. The success of this fundamental test makes this ''time-reversal'' scenario an attractive alternative to current SGRB models.

  14. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.

  15. MSSM Higgs boson searches at the Tevatron and the LHC: Impact of different benchmark scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carena, Marcela S. [FNAL; Heinemeyer, S. [CERN; Wagner, C. E.M. [Argonne /Chicago U., EFI; Weiglein, G. [Durham U., IPPP

    2006-01-24

    The Higgs boson search has shifted from LEP2 to the Tevatron and will subsequently move to the LHC. The current limits from the Tevatron and the prospective sensitivities at the LHC are often interpreted in specific MSSM scenarios. For heavy Higgs boson production and subsequent decay into b{bar b} or {tau}{sup +}{tau}{sup -}, the present Tevatron data allow to set limits in the M{sub A}-tan {beta} plane for small M{sub A} and large tan {beta} values. Similar channels have been explored for the LHC, where the discovery reach extends to higher values of M{sub A} and smaller tan {beta}. Searches for MSSM charged Higgs bosons, produced in top decays or in association with top quarks, have also been investigated at the Tevatron and the LHC. We analyze the current Tevatron limits and prospective LHC sensitivities. We discuss how robust they are with respect to variations of the other MSSM parameters and possible improvements of the theoretical predictions for Higgs boson production and decay. It is shown that the inclusion of supersymmetric radiative corrections to the production cross sections and decay widths leads to important modifications of the present limits on the MSSM parameter space. The impact on the region where only the lightest MSSM Higgs boson can be detected at the LHC is also analyzed. We propose to extend the existing benchmark scenarios by including additional values of the higgsino mass parameter {mu}. This affects only slightly the search channels for a SM-like Higgs boson, while having a major impact on the searches for non-standard MSSM Higgs bosons.

  16. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: ?Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors ?Enables analysis of different budget scenarios ?Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks ?Real-time analysis ?Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied ?Promotes solid budget defense

  17. Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ... and providing necessary furniture, tools, and materials. ... 47 48 Jason, x (SEAL.) Fa-Ind-7-1803 Lawyer 49 Head Chief Nez ... The critical floodplain is defined as the 500-year (0.2 ...

  18. Sustainable Land-use Impact Assessment Toolkit | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    public and private sector capacity to support initiatives 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development...

  19. Geothermal Power Plants — Minimizing Land Use and Impact

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    For energy production and development, geothermal power plants don't use much land compared to coal and nuclear power plants. And the environmental impact upon the land they use is minimal.

  20. Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ... Basin Ecosystem Management Project ILCR 21 ... Observatory LLW 25 | low-level waste | MCL 26 | maximum ... identify priorities or criteria that could prove useful ...

  1. LAND USE AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS FROM SHALE DEVELOPMENT IN THE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Soil Science Society of America Journal, 76:1696-1706 EIA. 2014. Energy Information ... Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play. ...

  2. Land Use History of Coso Hot Springs, Inyo County California...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    County California Abstract Abstract unavailable. Authors Cecil R. Brooks, W. M. Clements, J. A. Kantner and G. Y. Poirier Published Iroquois Research Institute, 1979 DOI Not...

  3. Final Hanford Comprehensive Land-Use Plan Environmental Impact...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... Transportation by air 2 113 | 2 778 14.5 4.0 Electric, gas, and sanitary services 3 88 | 1 ... Eating and drinking places 8 166 | 3 6,483 2.6 1.4 Finance, insurance, and real estate 9 ...

  4. Guidelines for Low Emission Land use Planning | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and will provide guidance and the integration of a range of tools to develop REDD+ strategy documents or low emissions plans for AFOLU. References Retrieved from "http:...

  5. Hillslope stability and land use (1985). Volume II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sidle, R.C.; Pearce, A.J.; O'Loughlin, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    This book emphasizes the natural factors affecting slope stability, including soils and geomorphic, hydrologic, vegetative, and seismic factors and provides information on landslide classification, global damage, and analytical methods. The effects of various extensive and intensive land management practices on slope stability are discussed together with methods for prediction, avoidance, and control. Examples of terrain evaluation procedures and land management practices are presented.

  6. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Services » Soil and Groundwater Soil and Groundwater Soil and Groundwater Legacy soil and groundwater remediation activities at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are conducted in accordance with regulatory requirements, DOE regulations, and other applicable environmental laws. The scope of work requires investigation and remediation of contaminated sites known as solid waste management units (SWMUs) or areas of concern (AOCs). The protection of surface water and groundwater is also within

  7. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Mitigation Project Database...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    countries. The database currently holds 497 project entries from 11 different databases, including formal crediting scheme registries and third party compilations."...

  8. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    John E. 1 ; Craig, Anthony P. 1 ; Calvin, Katherine V. 3 ; Jones, Andrew D. 1 ; Collins, William D. 1 ; Edmonds, James A. 3 ; Hurtt, George 2 ; Thornton, Peter ...

  9. Assess institutional frameworks for LEDS for land-use sector...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy in Low Income Countries (SREP) Nepal-Sectoral Climate Impacts Economic Assessment Nepal-UNEP Green Economy Advisory Services Nicaragua-Joint Programme on Resource...

  10. Doubling Geothermal Generation Capacity by 2020: A Strategic Analysis |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Doubling Geothermal Generation Capacity by 2020: A Strategic Analysis Doubling Geothermal Generation Capacity by 2020: A Strategic Analysis PDF icon NREL Doubling Geothermal Capacity.pdf More Documents & Publications Geothermal Exploration Policy Mechanisms Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios track 1: systems analysis | geothermal 2015 peer review

  11. The Pleistocene biogeography of eastern North America: A nonmigration scenario for deciduous forest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loehle, C.; Iltis, H.

    1998-12-31

    The current reconstruction of the vegetation of eastern North America at the last glacial maximum postulates a very wide zone of tundra and boreal forest south of the ice. This reconstruction requires that the deciduous forest retreated far to the south. The authors believe that this reconstruction is seriously in error. Geologic evidence for glacial activity or tundra is absent from the southern Appalachians. Positive evidence for boreal forest is based on pollen identifications for Picea, Betula, and Pinus, when in reality southern members of these genera have pollen that cannot be distinguished from that of northern members. Further, pollen of typical southern species such as oaks and hickories occurs throughout profiles that past authors had labeled boreal. Pollen evidence for a far southern deciduous forest refuge is lacking. Data on endemics are particularly challenging for the scenario in which deciduous forest migrated to the south and back. The southern Appalachian region is rife with endemics that are often extreme-habitat specialists unable to migrate. The previously glaciated zone is almost completely lacking in endemics. Outlier populations, range boundaries, and absence of certain hybrids all argue against a large boreal zone. The new reconstruction postulates a cold zone no more than 75--100 miles wide south of the ice in the East.

  12. A HYBRID SCENARIO FOR THE FORMATION OF BROWN DWARFS AND VERY LOW MASS STARS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Basu, Shantanu; Vorobyov, Eduard I. E-mail: eduard.vorobiev@univie.ac.at

    2012-05-01

    We present a calculation of protostellar disk formation and evolution in which gaseous clumps (essentially, the first Larson cores formed via disk fragmentation) are ejected from the disk during the early stage of evolution. This is a universal process related to the phenomenon of ejection in multiple systems of point masses. However, it occurs in our model entirely due to the interaction of compact, gravitationally bound gaseous clumps and is free from the smoothing-length uncertainty that is characteristic of models using sink particles. Clumps that survive ejection span a mass range of 0.08-0.35 M{sub Sun }, and have ejection velocities 0.8 {+-} 0.35 km s{sup -1}, which are several times greater than the escape speed. We suggest that, upon contraction, these clumps can form substellar or low-mass stellar objects with notable disks, or even close-separation very low mass binaries. In this hybrid scenario, allowing for ejection of clumps rather than finished protostars/proto-brown-dwarfs, disk formation and the low velocity dispersion of low-mass objects are naturally explained, while it is also consistent with the observation of isolated low-mass clumps that are ejection products. We conclude that clump ejection and the formation of isolated low-mass stellar and substellar objects is a common occurrence, with important implications for understanding the initial mass function, the brown dwarf desert, and the formation of stars in all environments and epochs.

  13. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  14. Nuclear Test Scenarios for Discussion of On-Site Inspection Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sweeney, J J; Hawkins, W

    2009-03-13

    The purpose of the ISS OSI Invited Meeting being held in Vienna March 24-27, 2009 is to obtain a better understanding of the phenomenology of underground nuclear explosions for On-Site Inspection (OSI) purposes. In order to focus the technology discussions, we have developed two very general scenarios, or models, of underground nuclear test configurations and phenomena that will help us explore the application of OSI methodologies and techniques. The scenarios describe testing environments, operations, logistics, equipment, and facilities that might be used in conducting an underground nuclear test. One scenario involves emplacement of a nuclear device into a vertical borehole in an area with relatively flat terrain; the other involves emplacement within a tunnel (horizontally) in an area with mountainous terrain. Vertical borehole geometry The example for this scenario is an intermediate yield nuclear explosion carried out in a flat desert area. The ground was cleared and smoothed over a 200 X 200 m fenced area for operational support activities, access to the borehole, and in order to place a few structures to house diagnostics equipment and control functions. Power lines were provided for local electrical power. The vertical emplacement borehole was 2 m in diameter and bored to a depth of 350 m. The emplacement hole was lined with steel pipe in order to keep the hole open and to avoid cave-ins during emplacement of the nuclear device. Emplacement was above the local water table, and the top of the saturation zone is about 30 m below the bottom of the emplacement hole. The detonation point was at a depth of 340 m. All of the rock material removed while drilling the borehole was removed to another place. Diagnostics and control for the test were relatively simple: about 2 dozen high capacity coaxial cables feed from the down hole instruments to the surface and then about 100 m laterally to a diagnostics trailer. Two strong steel cables were used to emplace the device and diagnostic instruments and to support the down hole cables. The borehole was stemmed after the device was emplaced. The stemming material was relatively simple: the hole was backfilled with sand or gravel about 20-30 m above the nuclear experiment package, a grouted plug about 3 m thick is added, and the hole backfilled with a mixture of sand and gravel to the surface. After the test, the testing party removed all structures and power lines and covered the top of the borehole with a small building. Geologic environment before the test--The geology for the test consists of flat-lying alluvium and tuff, with 50 m of poorly consolidated alluvium near the surface and moderately welded tuff from 50 m depth to 50 m below the bottom of the hole. The upper tuff is underlain by a densely welded tuff unit, with basement Paleozoic sedimentary rock beginning at a depth of about 1000 m. The tuff is intact with a few fractures. There are no known faults located within 500 m of the borehole. Alteration of the underground environment--The blast created a spherical or near spherical cavity with a lens of vitrified material at the bottom. There are several zones surrounding the detonation point with decreasing levels of rock damage. The zones are: (1) the crushed zone (several tens of meters)where the rock has lost all prior integrity; (2) the fractured zone (out to a couple of hundred meters) characterized by radial and concentric fissures; and (3) the zone of irreversible strain (out to a couple of thousand meters) with local media deformation. A collapse chimney formed one hour after the detonation, in which overlying material fell into the explosion cavity. This chimney zone reached up to within 50 m of the surface and a small apical void formed (10 m high and 80 m in diameter) at the top of the rubble chimney. The rubble chimney is dry and density is about 20% less than the surrounding intact rock. Alteration at the surface--No surface depression formed, but there is significant 'fluffing' of the surface soil from the effects of the initial shock wave. A few radial

  15. Climate Change Scenario Planning in Alaska's National Parks: Stakeholder Involvement in the Decision-Making Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

    2013-01-01

    This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.

  16. Climate change scenario planning in Alaska's National Parks: Stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

    2013-01-01

    This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decisionmaking process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.

  17. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007

  18. Scenarios constructed for the effects of tectonic processes on the potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barr, G.E.; Borns, D.J.; Fridrich, C.

    1996-10-01

    A comprehensive collection of scenarios is presented that connect initiating tectonic events with radionuclide releases by logical and physically possible combinations or sequences of features, events and processes. The initiating tectonic events include both discrete faulting and distributed rock deformation developed through the repository and adjacent to it, as well as earthquake-induced ground motion and changes in tectonic stress at the site. The effects of these tectonic events include impacts on the engineered-barrier system, such as container rupture and failure of repository tunnels. These effects also include a wide range of hydrologic effects such as changes in pathways and flow rates in the unsaturated and saturated zones, changes in the water-table configuration, and in the development of perched-water systems. These scenarios are intended go guide performance-assessment analyses and to assist principal investigators in how essential field, laboratory, and calculational studies are used. This suite of scenarios will help ensure that all important aspects of the system disturbance related to a tectonic scenario are captured in numerical analyses. It also provides a record of all options considered by project analysts to provide documentation required for licensing agreement. The final portion of this report discusses issues remaining to be addressed with respect to tectonic activity. 105 refs.

  19. Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2012-12-01

    We explore the implications of alternative pathways for human population and economic development for the role of Asia in both reference, no-climate-policy, scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different reference scenarios, which we refer to as Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the worlds future with nearly half of the worlds people and more than half of the worlds economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asian and world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.

  20. Status of Advanced Tokamak Scenario Modeling with Off-Axis Electron Cyclotron Current Drive in DIII-D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Murakami; H.E. St.John; T.A. Casper; M.S. Chu; J.C. DeBoo; C.M. Greenfield; J.E. Kinsey; L.L. Lao; R.J. La Haye; Y.R. Lin-Liu; T.C. Luce; P.A. Politzer; B.W. Rice; G.M. Staebler; T.S. Taylor; M.R. Wade

    1999-12-01

    The status of modeling work focused on developing the advanced tokamak scenarios in DIII-D is discussed. The objectives of the work are two-fold: (1) to develop AT scenarios with ECCD using time-dependent transport simulations, coupled with heating and current drive models, consistent with MHD equilibrium and stability; and (2) to use time-dependent simulations to help plan experiments and to understand the key physics involved. Time-dependent simulations based on transport coefficients derived from experimentally achieved target discharges are used to perform AT scenario modeling. The modeling indicates off-axis ECCD with approximately 3 MW absorbed power can maintain high-performance discharges with q{sub min} > 1 for 5 to 10 s. The resultant equilibria are calculated to be stable to n = 1 pressure driven modes. The plasma is well into the second stability regime for high-n ballooning modes over a large part of the plasma volume. The role of continuous localized ECCD is studied for stabilizing m/n = 2/1 tearing modes. The progress towards validating current drive and transport models, consistent with experimental results, and developing self-consistent, integrated high performance AT scenarios is discussed.